Talk Elections

Is North Carolina a toss-up state this election? I believe it is, but what do you think?

Unless Edwards gets himself nominated, I don't think it will be.

Wait eight years. North Carolina's around four years behind Virginia in terms of partisan trending towards Democrats. I expect Democrats to either carry or come extremely close in Virginia in 2008. My best guess is that North Carolina will be a toss-up in 2016, or, perhaps, as early as 2012.

Dems can win it, even without Edwards, but would likely need to win by 5% nationally to do so.  With that being said, the state is trending Democrat, especially due to the migration of many New Yorkers down there.  It will be in the true tossup category (by that I mean very close in relation to the national average) by 2012 or 2016.

i think the Dems will only win NC if the Republicans crater. However, whoever the dem nominee is will do better than Kerry did.

North Carolina is not a red state like everyone thinks.  It is heavily Democratic.  The Democrats control the State Senate with a 12 seat majority and handily control the State House as well.  They have also held the governor's seat for 20 years.  The Democrats there are much more conservative than your national party, however.  That is the reason they have such large majorities in the state and local level, but when it comes to national elections like Senate and President the state tends to go Republican.

Having said that, I don't think NC is in play next year.  It will likely go Republican, but as more yankees move down there and bring their more left wing politics with them the state will eventually become a swing state not too far down the road.

Yes, it is trending more democrat.

I think it will be lean GOP this year.  Probably 2-5% more GOP than the nationwide popular vote depending on the candidates.  It could potentially be a swing state in 2012 and an important one too since its possible that it will only be 3 EVs shy of Ohio after the 2010 Census.

yes:  odds of candidate winning (predicted share of vote) are below
HRC-65% (50-52%)
Obama-70% (51-53%)
JRE-95% (53-55%)

No, its not a tossup, and I can't believe anyone would think Obama could win it.  But I agree it is trending Democrat, though not four years behind Virginia.. more like at eight.

However, I do think it will be very close in 08 due more to dislike of Gulianai or Mormon than anything else.   Those two are just awful candidates for the peripheral South.

I don't think Edwards would have much success at all in his home state. He's not a career North Carolina politician - he's merely served one term in the revolving door Senate seat, and arguably didn't run for a second term because he wasn't going to win. I never got the sense the state has much affection for him across party lines. I also believe home state advantage doesn't come into play as much if one hasn't served the state recently and if one was a Senator in the first place. Al Gore stopped representing Tennessee in 1992 and was never its Governor - of course he wasn't going to overcome the political differences with the state that had developed by 2000.

He'll probably do five points better than Kerry did in 2004 due to the political environment and not being John Kerry.

Without Edwards, it is lean Republican.  With Edwards, then I would call it a tossup.

All these people who say it will be closer with Edwards are smoking something.  I travel to NC every year for at least a month and my Aunt, Uncle, Grandparents, and all of their friends and neighbors say that they themselves as well as everyone they know hate him.  Even my aunt, a hardcore Dem who immigrated there from MD hates him because they feel his run in 2004 left them in the lurch.

You can't judge an entire state by what your family thinks.

Since Edwards at this point is unlikely to be on the ticket, the Republican will win 53%. I have to admit though the Research Triangle, and Charlotte are fast growing and moving Democratic for now.

Tell that to everyone on the forum. :P

yes just like oklahoma

I never said OK was a toss-up state.  North Carolina is going to swing toward the Democrats this election. 

there's a HUGE difference between mid 50's in an incumbent year and low 60's.

In a Clinton v. Giuliani matchup

Giuliani: 55%
Clinton: 44%
Others: 1%

Why would Giuliani do that good in NC? He is a republican with Libertarian leanings. Clinton on the other hand is a Democrat with poplist leanings. NC is a populist state.

Giuliani who?

i have lots of family and i grew up in NC as well, and  I can also say he would not have won reelection in 2004 if he had run. he won that seat by a small margin and was hardly ever in the senate during his tenure there. if he were the nominee, it wouldn't matter in NC. he wouldn't get a bounce much at all.

The urban areas are trending more Democratic. In 2004, i think mecklenberg went to the dems for the first time in recent memory, as well as Gilford county. The triangle has always been heavily democratic. I could see a Democrat win 45-46% in NC, but it wont be a tossup.

There is nothing remotely libertarian about Giuliani, who is basically an out and out fascist.

I'm not judging the whole state by what my family thinks, they are just an example of how everyone I've talked to there thinks.

The Dems would have to reach around 54% nationally to scrape by in NC.  That's not going to happen with Hillary's negatives.

No matter what he is, he just don't fit North Carolina very well. I am not saying he won't win, but I think it would be a very close race in NC.

Oh, he don't.  Alright than.

Another poll came out show that Clinton is within MoE.

No.

No Democrat since Carter in 1980 has gotten above 45% of the vote.

Get back with us in 12-16 years though.