Talk Elections

I agree with all five.

I agree with all except number three. Mitt Romney's personal warchest is enough for him to sustain two early losses. I still think Republicans will soon look at their field and conclude that the Mormon from Massachusetts is their least repugnant choice.

McCain: Wears the apostate charge as a badge of honor. Sponsored disastrous, freedom-hating campaign finance law and opposed Bush's tax cuts.
Thompson: He's really comatose.
Huckabee: Pretty obvious why he won't win.
Giuliani: Could be out before has a chance to win. He's still a pro-choice, gay-rights supporting mayor of liberal bastion NYC and his trump card is growing less and less salient.

i also agree with all but Romney losing IA and NH. If he comes in 2nd in both (which is likely) wont be so bad and he has the money to pull out a win somewhere else (probably MI or NV). That being said if (like Guilliani) Romney doesnt get a single win in Jan then he is done too.

Huckabee can probably recover from a narrow loss in Iowa, as he'd still have a shot of winning SC (he loses any shot at winning MI or NV though).  A lot depends on how much money he has, which is (for the moment) an unknown.

Romney still has a shot in Michigan & Nevada, even if he loses NH & IA.  Not much of one...but McCain may not be able to convert a win in NH into victories in MI & NV, while it may divert from Huckabee enough to deprive him of a victory.  Romney's money buys him a bit of insurance.

Thompson probably should pull out, though he isn't completely dead.  If Huckabee unexpectedly underperforms in Iowa (to the extent that his campaign collapses a la Dean), and Thompson does well, he may yet have a shot in SC if McCain somehow pulls of NH.  It's an extreme longshot (and probably not enough to justify staying in the race), but his chances are still appreciably better than Paul's, for example.

McCain could still have a chance if he loses NH by a narrow margin and Huckabee wins IA.  It's entirely due to the possibility of extensive crossover/independent voting in MI, though.  As a result, he's going to be in the race until at least January 15.

Giuliani's has abandoned January and is betting the bank on that setting up an operation in the Super Tuesday states early will give him a chance.  A few weeks ago, I'd have said he had a decent chance...but I really don't think so anymore.  The only chance would be if McCain, Romney, and Huckabee all are still in the race at the end of January...and even then, it'd be a very slim one.

Lol. Yeah.

Here's my parlay predictions:

IA-Huckabee/NH-McCain - Huckabee
IA-Huckabee/NH-Romney - Romney
IA-Romney/NH-Romney - Romney, obviously
IA-Romney/NH-McCain - Almost impossible, but Romney

Where could McCain come in? He's been doing a little more sh**tily than last week.