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Title: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Verily on December 31, 2007, 10:00:08 PM Democrats
Obama 32 (+4) Clinton 25 (nc) Edwards 24 (+1) Richardson 6 (-3) Biden 4 (-2) Dodd 2 (+1) Kucinich 1 (nc) Gravel 0 (nc) Unsure 6 (-1) Republicans Huckabee 32 (+3) Romney 26 (+2) McCain 13 (+6) Paul 9 (+2) Thompson 9 (-5) Giuliani 5 (-8) Hunter 1 (nc) Keyes 1 (+1) Cox 0 (nc) [Tancredo 0 (-6)] Unsure 4 (nc) http://beta.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071231/NEWS09/71231044/-1/iowapoll07 Democratic Primary Poll (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?fips=19) Republican Primary Poll (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008R/polls.php?fips=19) Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Eraserhead on December 31, 2007, 10:01:22 PM Guys, I want to hug you all right now.
Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Meeker on December 31, 2007, 10:01:45 PM Bah.
One poll of many. I remain confident. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Eraserhead on December 31, 2007, 10:02:25 PM Bah. One poll of many. I remain confident. lolz only the best poll. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Lief 🗽 on December 31, 2007, 10:03:05 PM It goes against every other poll out there, but okay. We'll see in three days. :P
Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Meeker on December 31, 2007, 10:03:19 PM Bah. One poll of many. I remain confident. lolz only the best poll. What happened to MD being the best poll? Oh right... Edwards was up. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Eraserhead on December 31, 2007, 10:04:05 PM By the way, the coverage of this poll over the next couple of days will be massive... which will help Obama quite a bit and beat back the idea that Edwards is surging.
Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Verily on December 31, 2007, 10:04:46 PM By the way... Giuliani in 6th? Behind Thompson and Paul? And people think he might win the nomination?
Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Eraserhead on December 31, 2007, 10:06:23 PM Bah. One poll of many. I remain confident. lolz only the best poll. What happened to MD being the best poll? Oh right... Edwards was up. You mean tied with Clinton and Obama. A point hardly means anything. The DMR poll is considered the best in Iowa at least. I just hope expectations for Obama don't shoot up too high after this. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Lief 🗽 on December 31, 2007, 10:08:34 PM By the way, the coverage of this poll over the next couple of days will be massive... which will help Obama quite a bit and beat back the idea that Edwards is surging. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Meeker on December 31, 2007, 10:11:14 PM Bah. One poll of many. I remain confident. lolz only the best poll. What happened to MD being the best poll? Oh right... Edwards was up. You mean tied with Clinton and Obama. A point hardly means anything. The DMR poll is considered the best in Iowa at least. I just hope expectations for Obama don't shoot up too high after this. Ok, I was mainly poking fun, but for the record I didn't say leading, I said "up". He was up three points, from third to first and Obama was down three points from second to third. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Eraserhead on December 31, 2007, 10:15:36 PM By the way, the coverage of this poll over the next couple of days will be massive... which will help Obama quite a bit and beat back the idea that Edwards is surging. Try watching the news tomorrow and not hearing about it. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Meeker on December 31, 2007, 10:16:10 PM Lol, 1/3 could still change their minds. What a crazy race.
Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: © tweed on December 31, 2007, 10:18:12 PM I was about to declare the Obama campaign dead. who the f*** knows what's going to happen. this is fun.
Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Eraserhead on December 31, 2007, 10:20:55 PM I was about to declare the Obama campaign dead. who the f*** knows what's going to happen. this is fun. Agreed. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Reluctant Republican on December 31, 2007, 10:28:07 PM Good, I want Huckabee to win to put some serious hurt on Romney's campaign.
I also agree this is a pretty exciting time, but I can't help but feel the primaries themselves are going to be major downers. I really would not be suprised if Hillary and Romney win in Iowa and then just go on to win everything else. Let's hope for a bit more drama then that, though. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Eraserhead on December 31, 2007, 10:30:20 PM More good news:
"An analysis of likely caucusgoers' second choices showed that the results would change little if the votes for the lower-rated candidates were redistributed among the front-runners." Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: © tweed on December 31, 2007, 10:35:42 PM final DMR poll from 04
Kerry 26 Edwards 23 Dean 20 Gephardt 18 Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Lief 🗽 on December 31, 2007, 10:39:41 PM Does the thinking that DMR is by-far the best come from anything besides 2004 results? Because
Pollster (http://www.pollster.com/blogs/how_accurate_were_the_iowa_pol.php) kinda refutes that. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: agcatter on December 31, 2007, 10:48:03 PM Boss, thanks for flashback to the 2004 poll. They definitely nailed the order then and lends credibility to this year's poll. Very exciting race in both parties.
Interesting that Huck is still up. If this poll holds true, Romney is seriously hurt in NH. That coupled with a third place finish in Iowa for McCain may propel McCain to victory in NH. If that happens, McCain has the big mo and Romney could be eliminated. One caution however on the Dem side. Obama's support is younger voters and usually they don't turn out as well. If Obama's organization can turn those voters out, he could have a very good night and from there would be the odds on favorite to take NH. I didn't expect these result on either side in this poll. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Flying Dog on December 31, 2007, 11:15:25 PM Some interesting findings:
Clinton only gets 16% of the male vote. Obama and Edwards split the rest 31-30 Obama and clinton split the female vote 32-32 each. Obama leads overwhelmingly among 18-34, getting 56%. Polling trends 27-28 28-29 29-30 Obama 29% 33% 34% Clinton 27% 24% 23% Edwards 23% 24% 26% Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Eraserhead on December 31, 2007, 11:21:56 PM Some interesting findings: Clinton only gets 16% of the male vote. Obama and Edwards split the rest 31-30 Obama and clinton split the female vote 32-32 each. Obama leads overwhelmingly among 18-34, getting 56%. Polling trends 27-28 28-29 29-30 Obama 29% 33% 34% Clinton 27% 24% 23% Edwards 23% 24% 26% I like the trends. Hopefully we will get my original prediction: Obama in first, Edwards in second and Clinton in a miserable third. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: agcatter on December 31, 2007, 11:26:43 PM Agreed that if Obama and Edwards finish 1 and 2, Hillary suddenly has BIG problems in NH (which she may lose anyway) and then in SC. By then the national polls will have moved massively towards Obama and Hillary could be buried. Big mo on your side is a powerful force in the primaries. Just ask John Kerry.
Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: TheresNoMoney on December 31, 2007, 11:26:58 PM Obama leads overwhelmingly among 18-34, getting 56%. If this demographic turns out, Obama wins by at least a few percentage points. That number is pretty damn amazing in the big primary like this. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Verily on December 31, 2007, 11:33:24 PM Does the thinking that DMR is by-far the best come from anything besides 2004 results? Because Pollster (http://www.pollster.com/blogs/how_accurate_were_the_iowa_pol.php) kinda refutes that. They had the highest Kerry score, the highest Edwards score and the second-lowest Dean score (and, in each case, closest/second-closest to the accurate result). They were only really off on Gephardt, and it may have simply been that he failed to reach viability in a lot of places and distributed mostly to Kerry and Edwards (both logical conclusions, IMO). Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Flying Dog on December 31, 2007, 11:34:32 PM also, clinton and edwards split the 55 and above, 30-30% each. That could let obama slip through and win.
Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: I spent the winter writing songs about getting better on December 31, 2007, 11:36:12 PM Hillary in third, she loses NH, oh what a wonderful thought.
Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Politico on December 31, 2007, 11:45:03 PM The youth bloc that is backing Obama were relatively fickle four years ago when they were backing Dean. It's hard to count on youth in elections. Also, the poll shows that a third of voters may change their mind over the next couple of days. That is the silver lining that leads me to believe we are seeing the "Bradley Effect" in action. We will know Thursday night.
Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Keystone Phil on January 01, 2008, 12:22:35 AM Comfortable leads by Obama and Huckabee. Interesting. I don't know if I buy that or the fact that Paul is tied with Thompson and beating Rudy.
Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Speed of Sound on January 01, 2008, 12:45:35 AM Oh snap. I really needed a little boost before Iowa, as it was gettin a little dark there for a while. Its good stuff. Its good good stuff. You just dont have primaries like this all the time.
Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 01, 2008, 12:47:58 AM So, it'll all come down to turnout. If there's heavy turnout with many independents, like the DMR thinks, Obama wins. If there's lower turnout and the youth vote is disappointing once again, then either Clinton or Edwards takes it.
Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Verily on January 01, 2008, 12:51:06 AM Comfortable leads by Obama and Huckabee. Interesting. I don't know if I buy that or the fact that Paul is tied with Thompson and beating Rudy. The Giuliani numbers are consistent with most of the polls of Iowa lately; they reflect the fact that he abandoned the state back in August and hasn't run a single ad or made a single appearance since. The Paul numbers are a little high but not that surprising. He has built up quite a following, although generally pollsters register a small segment of the population with extremely enthusiastic support for Paul, but every other voter rules him out uncategorically (and therefore I think it reasonably likely for him to manage 6-10% in Iowa, but definitely not above 10% in any early state while turnout is still high because the nomination is still up for grabs). The Thompson numbers are also consistent with other polls. He's uninspiring and a wretched campaigner. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Erc on January 01, 2008, 12:52:36 AM The youth bloc that is backing Obama were relatively fickle four years ago when they were backing Dean. It's hard to count on youth in elections. Also, the poll shows that a third of voters may change their mind over the next couple of days. That is the silver lining that leads me to believe we are seeing the "Bradley Effect" in action. We will know Thursday night. The Bradley effect is pretty small in the first place, even smaller amongst Democrats, and even smaller than that amongst Democrats committed enough to go to the caucus. It won't be an issue. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: MarkWarner08 on January 01, 2008, 12:57:16 AM I just got back from a New Year's party-- from great times to an even greater time! Let's hope Obama closes well.
Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Aizen on January 01, 2008, 01:25:57 AM Who knows what shall transpire on Thursday. It's anyone's game.
Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Meeker on January 01, 2008, 02:21:23 AM Edwards responds:
Quote MEMORANDUM TO: Edwards for President FROM: Harrison Hickman RE: Des Moines Register Poll Results Date December 31, 2007 In response to questions, here are some observations about the Register poll released this evening. Is the poll accurate? There are good reasons to think it is NOT. The poll was conducted during the holiday season AND over the weekend. (One column says interviewing ended on Sunday while the article says interviewing was conducted Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.) Numerous professional studies indicate that either of these would make it more difficult to obtain a representative sample. The combination makes the problem of obtaining a valid sample geometrically worse. The poll is at odds with history. The poll says 60% of Democratic caucus participants will be first timers who have never before participated in a caucus. This matters in the horserace because the poll finds that about three-quarters of Obama's supporters are first-timers. The poll is at odds with known tenets of partisan caucus participation. The poll says 45% of those at Democratic caucuses will be Independents or Republicans. This matters because the entirety of Obama's "lead" is due to his advantage among non-Democrats. The poll is at odds with other polls. Several other polls show a closer race with other candidates leading. Others seem suspicious of the horserace numbers. David Yepsen's column highlights the fluidity of the results rather than the horserace. What does the poll say? The race is close. The race is yet to be decided. 34% say they could change their minds, and 6% do not express a preference. This means 40% have not made a final decision. As Yepsen points out, 21% of those in the 2004 entrance poll said they had made their decisions in the last 3 days -- something this poll cannot capture. The trend is moving toward Edwards. The nightly results show Obama's support flat over the last two nights, Clinton's declining each night, and Edwards' support increasing each night. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Verily on January 01, 2008, 02:29:35 AM Given that all of the polls showing Edwards even in contention were holiday-period polls, I don't see how Edwards can explain away third place as it being the holidays...
Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Eraserhead on January 01, 2008, 03:08:51 AM Edwards is back on the defensive I see.
Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Boris on January 01, 2008, 03:20:23 AM I still say that Hillary's middle-aged women are more likely to turnout than Barack's college students, but what the hell. I'll take it.
For the sake of interest, I'll even take an Edwards win over Clinton. The Democratic race becomes really boring really fast if Hilldawg wins Iowa. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Alcon on January 01, 2008, 03:24:47 AM I actually agree with Edwards' people. Too many first-time voters, too any young voters. Kind of chronic during caucus polling. I think Clinton is probably in the best position coming into IA (relative to the results here), but we'll see.
Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: MarkWarner08 on January 01, 2008, 03:27:00 AM I actually agree with Edwards' people. Too many first-time voters, too any young voters. Kind of chronic during caucus polling. I think Clinton is probably in the best position coming into IA (relative to the results here), but we'll see. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 01, 2008, 03:30:14 AM I wouldn't go so far as to call the polling inaccurate (though if the poll did run Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, isn't four days normally a little long for a poll?). It's just a matter of what turnout model you want to use. There's a good chance we'll see heavy turnout, with many new voters: the weather's going to be good (well, for Iowa: this Texas boy doesn't understand how anyone can call 28 degree, windy weather "nice"), the Democratic base is more energized than ever and young people really like Obama. It's just that new voters and young voters have proven over and over again to be disappointing when it actually comes time to vote.
Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Alcon on January 01, 2008, 03:31:49 AM I actually agree with Edwards' people. Too many first-time voters, too any young voters. Kind of chronic during caucus polling. I think Clinton is probably in the best position coming into IA (relative to the results here), but we'll see. Yeah. Hillary has Democrats and the most likely caucusgoing demographics. Edwards has...well, I'm not quite sure what he has, and I think he's biggest wildcard. I haven't seen internals on whether his supporters tend to be liberal anti-war Democrats, or independents who think he's moderate. The more it's the former, the better for him. Then again, Vorlon seems to disagree, and he's the Last Word. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Cubby on January 01, 2008, 03:47:11 AM Two pieces of good news! This has cheered me up, since I've been worried about Obama for the past few days. I agree that Hillary's supporters are more likely to vote. I was a Dean supporter in 2004 and his big loss in Iowa was a huge shock to me. Obama seems to have inherited his demographic (liberals, people under 30, etc.) Hopefully, history won't repeat itself.
I support Obama but if he loses big then I'll switch to Edwards, who I agree with on the issues (especially his healthcare plan) I just don't like his personality. The important thing is that Hillary doesn't get the nomination. A Hillary-Romney race is what we should try to avoid. An Obama-Huckabee race would be awesome. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Ben. on January 01, 2008, 04:05:17 AM Edwards responds: Quote MEMORANDUM TO: Edwards for President FROM: Harrison Hickman RE: Des Moines Register Poll Results Date December 31, 2007 In response to questions, here are some observations about the Register poll released this evening. Is the poll accurate? There are good reasons to think it is NOT. The poll was conducted during the holiday season AND over the weekend. (One column says interviewing ended on Sunday while the article says interviewing was conducted Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.) Numerous professional studies indicate that either of these would make it more difficult to obtain a representative sample. The combination makes the problem of obtaining a valid sample geometrically worse. The poll is at odds with history. The poll says 60% of Democratic caucus participants will be first timers who have never before participated in a caucus. This matters in the horserace because the poll finds that about three-quarters of Obama's supporters are first-timers. The poll is at odds with known tenets of partisan caucus participation. The poll says 45% of those at Democratic caucuses will be Independents or Republicans. This matters because the entirety of Obama's "lead" is due to his advantage among non-Democrats. The poll is at odds with other polls. Several other polls show a closer race with other candidates leading. Others seem suspicious of the horserace numbers. David Yepsen's column highlights the fluidity of the results rather than the horserace. What does the poll say? The race is close. The race is yet to be decided. 34% say they could change their minds, and 6% do not express a preference. This means 40% have not made a final decision. As Yepsen points out, 21% of those in the 2004 entrance poll said they had made their decisions in the last 3 days -- something this poll cannot capture. The trend is moving toward Edwards. The nightly results show Obama's support flat over the last two nights, Clinton's declining each night, and Edwards' support increasing each night. One word.... "spooked". Very odd response IMHO, you simply shouldnt get distracted by a single poll... if they are responding in this way then it strikes me as very defensive and suggesting the Edwards campaign is feelin shaky (which is strange to say the least). Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 01, 2008, 04:13:01 AM Okay, on further examination of these internals, this poll seems way, way off. Even if you're being liberal with turnout numbers, I don't think that there's anyway that 45% of voters in Iowa Democratic caucus will be non-Democrats (40% Ind, 5% Rep). In 2004, only 20% were non-Democrats (19% Ind, 1% Rep). Also, 60%, according to DMR, will be first time voters. In 2004, about 45% were first time voters (but this large number was understandable, as there hadn't been a competitive Democratic caucus since 1988). Lastly, this poll is predicting a huge, record turnout of 180,000.
I don't know. On Thursday, these DMR pollers are either going to look like prophets or hacks. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Tender Branson on January 01, 2008, 04:37:06 AM Interesting fact:
Iowans who say they are likely to take part in the Jan. 3 presidential caucuses would rather grab a seat in the political arena than sit at home on caucus night watching the Orange Bowl. The latest Iowa Poll shows that just 5 percent of likely Republican caucus participants and 4 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers are very tempted to instead stay home on the night of Jan. 3 to watch the prime-time football game. An additional 17 percent in the Republican camp and 13 percent on the Democratic side are tempted to a lesser degree to opt for football instead of presidential politics. The caucuses normally are held after the last bowl game, but Iowa party leaders decided to move up the date of the 2008 caucuses from Jan. 14 to ensure other states wouldn’t leapfrog Iowa on the nominating calendar. They landed on Jan. 3, a date shared with the Orange Bowl. The date change brought the caucuses close to the New Year’s holiday. But the poll shows less than 10 percent of likely caucus participants for each party changed travel or vacation plans in order to be able too take part in the political competition. http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071202/NEWS09/312020007/-1/iowapoll07 Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Politico on January 01, 2008, 06:27:30 AM The Bradley effect is pretty small in the first place, even smaller amongst Democrats, and even smaller than that amongst Democrats committed enough to go to the caucus. It won't be an issue. While I agree that the Bradley effect is small in Democrat primaries and caucuses compared to in general elections, I disagree that the Bradley effect is completely negligible among Democratic voters. I believe it may very well be relatively significant, particularly in predominantly caucasian states such as Iowa and New Hampshire, for example. Go read up on the polls that pitted Jesse Jackson against Michael Dukakis in 1988, especially in places like Wisconsin, and compare them to the actual results. There is no doubt the Bradly effect was significant in 1988 in a number of Democratic primaries and caucuses. As for 2008, this is merely a suspicion on my part. I may be wrong, and I actually hope that I am. We will find out Thursday. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Politico on January 01, 2008, 06:33:22 AM One word.... "spooked". Very odd response IMHO, you simply shouldnt get distracted by a single poll... if they are responding in this way then it strikes me as very defensive and suggesting the Edwards campaign is feelin shaky (which is strange to say the least). The campaign is obviously not distracted by a single poll. That does not mean some within the campaign are not analyzing every single poll. The polls that really matter are the tracking polls for today and tomorrow. With the holidays out of the way, caucus goers are going to get real serious now. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Eraserhead on January 01, 2008, 12:21:35 PM One word.... "spooked". Very odd response IMHO, you simply shouldnt get distracted by a single poll... if they are responding in this way then it strikes me as very defensive and suggesting the Edwards campaign is feelin shaky (which is strange to say the least). The campaign is obviously not distracted by a single poll. That does not mean some within the campaign are not analyzing every single poll. The polls that really matter are the tracking polls for today and tomorrow. With the holidays out of the way, caucus goers are going to get real serious now. Since they are Zogby, I'm inclined to disagree. We shall see though. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Eraserhead on January 01, 2008, 12:22:20 PM I actually agree with Edwards' people. Too many first-time voters, too any young voters. Kind of chronic during caucus polling. I think Clinton is probably in the best position coming into IA (relative to the results here), but we'll see. Yeah. Hillary has Democrats and the most likely caucusgoing demographics. Edwards has...well, I'm not quite sure what he has, and I think he's biggest wildcard. I haven't seen internals on whether his supporters tend to be liberal anti-war Democrats, or independents who think he's moderate. The more it's the former, the better for him. Then again, Vorlon seems to disagree, and he's the Last Word. He is predicting an Obama victory correct? Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Cubby on January 01, 2008, 02:01:52 PM The Bradley effect is pretty small in the first place, even smaller amongst Democrats, and even smaller than that amongst Democrats committed enough to go to the caucus. It won't be an issue. While I agree that the Bradley effect is small in Democrat primaries and caucuses compared to in general elections, I disagree that the Bradley effect is completely negligible among Democratic voters. I believe it may very well be relatively significant, particularly in predominantly caucasian states such as Iowa and New Hampshire, for example. Go read up on the polls that pitted Jesse Jackson against Michael Dukakis in 1988, especially in places like Wisconsin, and compare them to the actual results. There is no doubt the Bradly effect was significant in 1988 in a number of Democratic primaries and caucuses. As for 2008, this is merely a suspicion on my part. I may be wrong, and I actually hope that I am. We will find out Thursday. The Bradley Effect may still be a factor. But much less of one than back in the 80's. First of all, Obama isn't involved with Jackson, Sharpton, Lewis, etc. so he is seen as being separate from the black establishment. Second of all, people are less racist today than they were then. I'm not saying racism is dead, but its far less acceptable or widespread than in 1988. And thirdly, if people have last minute doubts about Obama, it will be because of his supposed inexperience, not his race. (Also, getting his supporters to show up at the caucus will make a big difference). Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: ShadowRocket on January 02, 2008, 06:24:02 PM The thing that interests me about this is that the DM Register got the correct order of the candidates right in '04. So its worth wondering whether or not history will repeat itself tommorow.
But I still think Iowa is Edwards' to lose simply because pretty much every poll that has been done on second choices show him with a clear lead over Obama and Hillary. So I'm going to stand by my prediction of an Edwards victory, Obama taking second place, and Hillary falling in third. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Flying Dog on January 02, 2008, 08:36:40 PM But I still think Iowa is Edwards' to lose simply because pretty much every poll that has been done on second choices show him with a clear lead over Obama and Hillary. So I'm going to stand by my prediction of an Edwards victory, Obama taking second place, and Hillary falling in third. 2nd Choices could actually benefit Obama if supporters of Kucinich, Richardson and Biden follower the advice of their candidates and caucas 2nd choice for Obama. (This is, of course, only if the rumors prove to be true) Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Eraserhead on January 02, 2008, 11:20:12 PM But I still think Iowa is Edwards' to lose simply because pretty much every poll that has been done on second choices show him with a clear lead over Obama and Hillary. So I'm going to stand by my prediction of an Edwards victory, Obama taking second place, and Hillary falling in third. 2nd Choices could actually benefit Obama if supporters of Kucinich, Richardson and Biden follower the advice of their candidates and caucas 2nd choice for Obama. (This is, of course, only if the rumors prove to be true) If these rumors turn out to be true, Iowa could be a blowout on the Demoratic side. We shall see. I'm not buying it yet. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Jacobtm on January 03, 2008, 12:08:14 AM I feel like because of Edwards' rural support, and the fickleness of young voters, that Edwards will end up ahead of Obama. I'm not sure where Clinton will fall, but Edwards ahead of Obama is what I'm feeling...
Probably dead wrong, but we'll see in about 21 hours. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on January 03, 2008, 08:57:15 AM I feel like because of Edwards' rural support, and the fickleness of young voters, that Edwards will end up ahead of Obama. I'm not sure where Clinton will fall, but Edwards ahead of Obama is what I'm feeling... Probably dead wrong, but we'll see in about 21 hours. It's not just about the fickleness of young voters... they just never show up. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Aizen on January 03, 2008, 10:44:22 PM Des Moines Reigster wins again.
Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Verily on January 03, 2008, 10:51:52 PM Des Moines Reigster wins again. They didn't quite nail the order this time, though they did get that Obama would be well ahead of Clinton and Edwards. Zogby (!) nailed the order but predicted a much more even split between candidates. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Tender Branson on January 03, 2008, 10:52:17 PM Des Moines Reigster wins again. And their editorial board was once again wrong in endorsing Clinton and McCain ... :P Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: Eraserhead on January 03, 2008, 10:53:52 PM Des Moines Reigster wins again. Ann Salazar = Poll God. Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: CultureKing on January 03, 2008, 10:54:32 PM I will never again doubt the Des Moines Register. EVER.
Title: Re: Des Moines Register: It's Obama and Huckabee Post by: TheresNoMoney on January 04, 2008, 12:34:55 AM They basically nailed it again!
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