Talk Elections

http://www.iowagop.net/index.asp

Ahahaha, look at their poll question: Do you believe the Register debate was an embarassment to Iowa?

First off, someone's a little bitter. Secondly, it's spelled "embarrassment" dudes.

CNN says that entrance polls indicated that a good number of voters are "born again or evangelical" which could help Huckabee but apparently immigration is their number one issue so who knows.

For what its worth at this moment, Politico.com is reporting, with 2% of precincts in:

McCain 38%
Huckabee 33%
Thompson 29%
Romney 0%

lol

http://www.politico.com/

FOXNEWS has the following on enterance exam

Huckabee 33%
Romney 23%
Thompson 14.5%
McCain is about 1% back of Thompson

The Republican precinct caucus on C-SPAN 2 has just started.

McCain 38
Huckabee 33
Thompson 29
All others 0

WTF?

disappointing result for Romney if it holds.

politico has live streaming

Wow.   4% in and McCain has skyrocketed to 37%.

If anyone has another more reliable site than Politico.com, feel free to post it.

7% in:

McCain 36
Huckabee 32
Thompson 29 :o
Giuliani 1
All others 0

Still no Romney.

http://www.iowagop.net

Takes an obscene amount of time to load on my computer.

CNN had:

Huckabee 33%
Romney 24%
Thompson 17%
McCain 11%

but I didn't catch how many precincts were reporting.

McCain 34
Huckabee 33
Thompson 31 :o :o :o
Giuliani 1
Romney 0 :D

McCain falling.

FOXNEWS has something totally different than that. edwards leads with 17% in.

Those are the Democrats.

cmon Mitt

I don't see how those totals could possibly be right. The Republicans are on the "one man=one vote" caucus, and only 4 candidates have votes after 10% of the precincts?

This is what MSNBC reported 10 minutes ago with 2% in:

Huckabee 33%
Romney 24%
Thompson 18%
McCain 12%
Paul 11%
Giuliani 2%

Romney must prevail

Ahem... I don't know where you people are getting your results, but I'm gonna trust CNN:

Huckabee: 33%
Romney: 24%
Thompson: 18%
McCain: 12%
Paul: 11% (?!?)
Giuliani: 2% (LOL)
Hunter: 0%

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#IA

Fox is talking like Huckabee is going to win.

Is Hannity going to blow a gasket?

Quite possibly the best result the Democrats could hope for. :P

I would have preferred that Giuliani crash and burn sometime AFTER the Iowa caucus.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#IA

results here

CNN has got the fastest results it seems

Paul with 11% and Rudy with 3%

He did better than I expected!

CNN projects Huckster the winner.

WOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

CNN just projected Huckabee wins.  It's a it early, with only 15% in, but maybe they have some numbers they haven't put up yet.

glad to see romney defeated.

Yup, very good result.

we can say goodbye to his candidacy. now rudy needs to get his voters! Michigan and Nevada are states he needs to make an effort in!

You wish.

Huckabee wins Iowa due to evangelical bigots.

New Hampshire will not be such fertile ground for Hucksterbee.

To write Romney off now is ridiculous and laughable. 

Only a fool would believe this is the end of the Romney campaign.

Wow, the creationist who thinks we're fighting WWIII and wants to replace the income tax with an extremely regressive sales tax has won. If the Democrats can't figure out how to run against him on those issues, they deserve to lose.

lol

Your man is currently almost losing by double-digits to Ron Paul.  I think he needs a miracle.

Don't worry.  The Democrats will find a way to lose.

Romney :(

hopefully Paul beats McCain or some sh**t

Tonight, the GOP ate itself.

The problem in New Hampshire is not Huckabee. But you knew that, you're just pissed.

According to the BBC, ABC News are also calling it for Huckbee.

In entrance polling, 60% of Republican caucusgoers described themselves as evangelical.

I share your pain, BT. If Romney loses to McCain, we'll never get to see that immaculate hair again. :(

CBS to Huckabee.

So when McCain beats Flip Flop Romney in NH, where does Romney go from there?   South Carolina?   LOL

Hrm.... McCain is going to beat Romney now. McCain gets closer to winning the GOP nod. At least it looks like he is not getting third in Iowa.

To put things in perspective:

Ronald Reagan did not win Iowa.

George H W Bush did not win Iowa.

Bill Clinton did not win Iowa.

However, I will say, if Romney does not win or place well in New Hampshire, he is in serious trouble.

Huck got all the late breakers.  As I suspected, the silly late Rollins ploy worked.  It helped that no one liked Romney in the first place.  Now McCain should be able to finish off Romney in NH.

well, considering the phenomenal interest in this thread, I'd suggest this forum-and also the US-is heading democrat in november.

McCain is narrowing Thompson's lead over him.

The Republicans don't have a cool website.

Paul is now in sixth place according to CNN. Looks like he really was just an internet fad, sadly.

giuliani has jumped up.

You have 4 candidates right there for third. 13-12-11-10.

I thought the Republican results were supposed to come in fast.  What is going on here?

Hey guys,

Just thought I'd stop over to let you know:

Pocahantas County, IA

With 36% of the vote counted (at 9:15PM):

 Paul             54   33%
 Huckabee   49    30%
 Romney      30    18%
 Thompson   20   12%
 McCain        11     7%
 Giuliani        1      0%

It would be nice if Paul won a county. It would make up for him coming in 5th :(

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=67265.msg1380337#msg1380337 (http://www.uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=67265.msg1380337#msg1380337)

It seems McCain and Guliani are moving up, just as I thought. It would be really ridiculous if either THompson or Paul got 3rd place.

frankly, third place appears to be interesting.  romney may have bled support at the end.  kinda reminds me of mondale - bring the people there, they vote differently.

RON PAUL REVOLUTION anyone?

RUDY SURGE! 11%!

Iowa Republican Caucuses Results 
Candidate   Votes *   %
Mike Huckabee    14,045   31%
Mitt Romney    10,084   23%
Fred Thompson    5,950   13%
John McCain    5,194   12%
Rudy Giuliani    4,901   11%
Ron Paul    4,379   10%
Duncan Hunter    168   0%
Tom Tancredo    2   0%

http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008-presidential-candidates/primaries/states/ia/r/

What delusional hacks voted for Tancredo?

Will the Republican get me some fukcing results?

Well my GOP prediction of 32% Mitt, 30% Huckabee, sucked, but my Dem guess of 38% Obama, and 30% each for Edwards and Clinton looks pretty good.

Something weird going on. CNN's results just went from 40% to 65% and while everyone's results went up appreciably, Giuliani just lost 1300 votes and is down to 4% from 11%.

Huckabee 34%
Romney 25%
Thompson 14%
McCain 13%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 4%

Lots of precincts closing?

Yeah, saw that, too.  How odd.

They've had trouble from the beginning. With 10% reporting they had ROmney at 0%, remember?

Probably someone adding numbers wrong.  Considering the homogenity of Iowa precincts, I would guess that this is the correct number

Iowa Republican Caucuses Results 
Candidate   Votes *   %
Mike Huckabee    25,510   34%
Mitt Romney    18,668   25%
Fred Thompson    10,308   14%
John McCain    9,891   13%
Ron Paul    7,674   10%
Rudy Giuliani    2,708   4%
Duncan Hunter    324   0%
Tom Tancredo    2   0%
Key: * Explainer: What are these votes? | Red Checkmark Winner
Precincts: 65% | Updated: 9:35 PM ET | Source: AP

That was awesome. Too bad it didn't last.

No, Giuliani receiving a negative 1300 votes.


That was Politico. That wasn't CNN.

how did Rudy lose 7% that quickly?

Welcome to the GOP.

CNN Entrance Poll - Independents

Paul 33%
McCain 20%
Romney 19%
Huckabee 14%
Thompson 11%

Most independents, I think, would vote in the Democratic primary, so I'm unsurprised.

My dad compared the Republicans to the Indian BJP. :P

So did anyone find a good website for the results since the Republican party isn't capable of running a website?

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#IA

72% in

Huckabee 28,762 34% 0
Romney 21,213 25% 0
Thompson 11,522 14% 0
McCain 11,281 13% 0
Paul 8,549 10% 0
Giuliani 3,053 4% 0

I'm hoping McCain can really get third place here.

That link failed to completely load under 3 different browswers on 2 different computers.

I'll post further updates later for you.

I will say that it's up to 76% and that the more precincts reporting they get, the closer McCain gets to Thompson. He's now only 180 votes behind passing Thompson for 3rd.

It's pretty funny that Guiliani has only 4%. He was the front-runner so recently.

As of now, it looks like Zogby actually came closest to predicting the final results on the GOP side.

LOL. 
Des Moines is probably the winner on the Democratic side.

CNN now has McCain in third by like 40 votes.

McCain has passed Thompson for 3rd at 78% in.

YES!

If Thompson drops out and endorses McCain and he beats Romney in New Hampshire (both of which are looking pretty likely) he's definitely back in the race.

Zogby is very good at this thing - as I said earlier today.  He still sucks at other polling.

Based on the numbers, it looks like the Democratic turnout for the caucuses is going to double the Republicans. Maybe the typical Iowa Republican just cares less about politics than the typical Iowa Democrat, but this is a 50/50 state in general elections, that is a huge difference. What is everyone's opinion on this?

The real winner tonight was John McCain.  Romney is not only weak, but reviled by all the other candidates... all of whom will rape him in New Hampshire and South Carolina.  New Hampshire is McCain's to lose now.  And is looks like Thompson will drop out an endorse McCain.

We're screwed. Unless we nominate McCain, but the base would not come out for him.

Huckabee talking now.

Flanked by Chuck Norris.

Yeah Chuck Norris seems really close to Huckabee, kind of oddly close as from my viewing point he is the only one you can see other than Huckabee himself (weird camera angle I guess?)

Man, I never thought I woman could be much uglier than Hillary Clinton... but look at Janet Huckabee... man she has Janet Reno's frame.

They just shifted Chuck Norris into an even more prominent position on the stage.

That assumption is not backed up by any polls that I know of.

whose the blonde?

Well of course they did; do you think they wanted a Norris roundhouse to the face?

Now he is recognizing the "patriots" behind him. Is Chuck Norris holding him hostage or something?

Norri's wife

They hate him because of McCain/Feingold and they don't trust him on immigration. Don’t get me wrong, I think he could beat Clinton but I’m not too sure about Obama. I’m starting to think the man is destined to be president. He's a compromise choice whereas Obama is someone the Democrats seem really excited about, and their's not as much of an energy to keep him out of the white house as their is with Clinton.

But hey, I predicted a third place finish for Paul, so I don't really have a good track record here.

Foreigners must think American politics is trivial business that is driven by uninformed voters who are swayed by the likes of Chuck Norris and Oprah Winfrey.

Actually, maybe Des Moines Register was actually closer.  I don't know.  Both Zogby and DMR were pretty close.  Insider Advantage wasn't bad either.  Strategic Vision didn't do so well.

Iowa Republican Caucuses Results 
Candidate   Votes *   %
Mike Huckabee    35,257   34%
Mitt Romney    25,995   25%
Fred Thompson    13,786   13%
John McCain    13,473   13%
Ron Paul    9,992   10%
Rudy Giuliani    3,571   3%
Duncan Hunter    452   0%
Tom Tancredo    3   0%

Fred over McCain again.

looks like the girl on total gym with chuck norris.

Obama will have problems with older Democratic voters, generally, especially in the South, but maybe he can make up that with younger and newer voters.  I remain far from convinced of that, however.

You predicted 3rd? Dude. I tried to keep my hopes in check and predicted 4th barely ahead of Thompson.

My prediction was Huckabee gets a close win over Romney, McCain a distant third, Paul just squeaking ahead of Thompson and Giuliani.

So Romney loses by a bigger margin than I expected, Thompson and Paul switched positions and Thompson is close to McCain, and Giuliani was further back than I expected.

Well, I'm eating major crow now, ha ha. I'm going over to McCain now, he's the only other Republican I like. Still hope Paul does well in NH though.

Paul should perform well in NH.  Huckabee should gain, but his type of supporters there are rather thin on the ground.

Still with 15% or so of precincts to go right?

Yep.

So far McCain and Thompson are tied.

Official J. J. endorsement:  John McCain.

Go MacMan! :)

Regardless...it looks, as of right now that McCain would be the frontrunner in New Hampshire, especially after Huckabee spanked Romney...though that can change...

Does McCain gain at not just Romney's, but also Giuliani's expense?

Hey, I've always tossed Paul aside as a joke candidate; getting 10% is pretty good by me.

He's been gaining from Giuliani for about 3-4 weeks.  Don't see why it would stopped.

As pointed out by another poster on another site, who's been posting here :), McCain ate into Mitt's base of voters (or the base he'd been courting) in upper-income Des Moines precincts.

lol, Rudy got murdered.  we all knew he would but being tripled up by Paul is something else altogether.

Don't feel bad. I support Paul, but I know full well he's not winning the nomination. My hope is he just forces the party toward his direction like Dean did to the Democrats in late 2003 and that it will make libertarians more openly accepted in the Republican Party, which they most certainly are not now. I said previously to a hater on here, Paul by being where he's at now has far exceeded my expectations from what I thought this past summer, and it's nice to know there are more people in this party that think like I do than I had previously thought.

6 months ago he was around Duncan Hunter and Jim Gilmore level around a tie for ninth place at 0.5%. He got fifth tonight at 10% with support from probably around 11,000 out of 115,000 Republicans.

No. Giuliani told most people in Iowa that he didnt care if they caucused for him or not, and that they weren't part of his strategy. He needs to finish third in NH to stay viable, though. If he finishes behind Paul again, then McCain will take all his supporters.

I guess what I'm saying here is, for Giulani's delayed strategy to work...it almost requires McCain to be dead in the water by super tuesday...doesn't look like that's gonna happen now...

Huckabee and Obama are both populists, so if both of them are on the ticket come November, it should make too much of a difference overall in how the country is ran.  Both speak well and bring a positive message, and I find this to be one of the interesting variables for predicting how the states will vote.  We could easily see a complete shift of the EV map, and that causes me to laugh when I read people saying almost too confidently that Huckabee can't beat Obama... since it's impossible to tell at this early stage.

Welcome aboard!

Good job, Chuck.

I also endorse McCain, while still supporting Rudy.  Unfortunately, the thread in which I did it got attacked by a jackass who started name calling in the first post and then accused me of doing it later.

Fixed.

It's inevitable that the serious Republicans will rally to McCain.  He is going to be the nominee, he is going to be the next President, and he will be pretty good at it all things considered.

For BRTD:  Looks like McCain is going to finish in 2nd, ahead of Romney, in Sioux County...

Oops... yeah, thanks for noticing.

Looks like I was wrong:  Republican turnout is going to be more in the 115,000-120,000 range.

I also suspect Thompson finishes a few hundred votes ahead of McCain, probably not enough to get him up to 14%, however.

It will be skin tight, but Thompson will probably win by about 150 votes. The last precincts out are mostly where McCain has done better, but he is behind by about 250 votes, with 4% of the precincts out.

I am so surprised that Fred Thompson finished third in the Republican race, with 93% of the precents in. How in God's name does this occur when he hasn't bothered to campaign half the time? As long as he fails in New Hampshire (which he will) and South Carolina I will be a happy man.

I wouldn't be surprised if Mitt Romney wins New Hampshire with Senator McCain a very close second and Congressman Ron Paul finishing third. McCain and Paul both have the 'Big Mo' as George Bush said back in 1980. What happens next is anybody's guess.

If McCain continues to have the "big mo", he will destroy Romney in NH, not finish 2nd.

Romney will not win NH. Tonight's loss was devastating to his campaign built entirely around a win in Iowa.

Who knows, both McCain and Paul will get into Romney's support and make him implode, creating an interesting one-on-one duel in New Hampshire :P

I used to do that all the time. The vote base (bare majority of the majority group, noone else worth mentioning) is certainly identical.

Paul won 2 delegates

Maps?

So did Alan Keyes and John Cox get 0 votes? They hadn't dropped out yet had they?

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/stateprim.php?fips=19&year=2008&elect=2)

The yellow is Ron Paul in Jefferson County (strong county for the now-defunct Natural Law Party).  I have to make some modifications for making Paul purple and Thompson yellow... (holdover from 2004).

Thanks Dave.

Out of curiosity, what was Huckabee's best county?

Just by that map, either Mahaska or Wayne. I would guess Mahaska, which was also a very strong Bush county.

Hagelin got 14.69% in 2000 in Jefferson county, and "Others" got 22.8% there in 1996.

Mahaska beats out Wayne by 0.02%