Talk Elections

So we can see how many votes uncommited gets...

I wonder if Uncommited will give a speech afterwards :)

...and how many Mike Gravel gets.

And Kucinich and Dodd.


That would be awesome.

Gravel landslide.

On Fox News Channel, they're already talking about exit poll results.  They just said that among black voters voting in the Dem. primary, it was:

Uncommitted 69%
Clinton 25%

What?! I assume that's a typo...

Please let it be true!!!!!

Surprise, surprise. Actually, given the extremely low turnout, it's very possible that Clinton ends up humiliated. (The black vote will be a substantial part of the overall result.) We shall see.

No, it's not a typo.  Remember, that's just the *black* voters.

she's going to have a difficult time in SC then

Is anyone else besides me thinking, that Uncommitted will win Detroit?

Yeah, but the black vote is pretty sizable in the Democratic Michigan primary...

if the exit polls are anywhere close to correct there's no chance that it doesn't.

Does Michigan do things proportional by CD or proportional overall?

For the Republicans it is CD, not sure about the Democrats though.

Kucinich wont be allowed to join the debate in Nevada....I loled.

haha... I hope Uncommitted gives us a hilarious night.

with zero delegates it doesn't matter.  unless I'm misunderstanding what you're asking.

ahahaha.

TOO CLOSE TO CALL!

hahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Fox News just announced that!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Holy sh**t!

HAHAHAH!

Awesome. ;D

I can't wait to hear Uncommitted's Victory Speech!

Clinton 2,345 65%
 Uncommitted 1,000 28%
 Kucinich 181 5%
 Dodd 40 1%
 Gravel 17 1%

we got the Silver!

We are going to win this thing!

Clinton at 66% in Wayne County.  it's an extremely small fraction of the precincts, but if that continues, it makes that uncommitted rout of blacks as reported by the exit polls seem unlikely.

Wayne county is kinda segregated, so it could be an all white precinct.

You know, even though only 2% is in, you'd think they would have called it by now. They call Kentucky, Indiana and Vermont immediately on general election night, and those states are much closer than you'd think Michigan would be. Unless Clinton is really screwed.

Perhaps it was just another exit poll snafu after all... I'd be happy if Clinton was just held under 65% anyway.

After the 2000 debacle, didn't all the networks agree to not call any states until after the polls are closed statewide?  There are still some polls open in the central timezone.

Uncommitted is apparently doing very well amongst Blacks according to Fox, so who knows, maybe it can pull a bit closer.

Clinton at 92% in Chippewa County. Weird.

Wooh!!!! Go Kucinich and Uncommitted!

There seem to be some counties, particularly in the UP, where no Uncommitted votes were recorded at all. The campaign seems to have reached some areas and not others.

Clinton 15,227 62%
 Uncommitted 7,755 32%
 Kucinich 988 4%
 Dodd 237 1%
 Gravel 136 1%

Still? Doesn't anyone there pay any attention to the news?

It might be a good night for Kucinich (by his standards at least).

Why was the Republican thread locked?

I would say that in the UP not many would vote for Obama in a normal election. Edwards might even beat out Obama in most UP areas.

Clinton 19,857 62%
 Uncommitted 10,565 33%
 Kucinich 1,247 4%
 Dodd 309 1%
 Gravel 167 0%

I PMed Verily.

7% reporting:

Clinton 25,866 62%
 Uncommitted 13,524 33%
 Kucinich 1,574 4%
 Dodd 376 1%
 Gravel 209 0%

The latter, probably, but Obama would still have managed 15-20% in the UP counties (with Edwards at more like 20-25%). That doesn't account for the abnormally low Uncommitted votes there, only uninformed voters do.

I like that CNN calls the Republicans before the Democrats. ;D

UNCOMITTED LANDSLIDE!!!!!!!!

At least now I can get something to eat.

Clinton's at 62% and they still refuse to call it?

Do they know something that we don't?

As it turns out Zombies ate all the other Hillary voters in the state.

Maybe they just don't see a need to call it.

Fox called it for Clinton but I still expect it to get a little closer and it's already closer than most people expected I think. :)

They just called it....
Oh well, we all knew it wouldn't last.

DAMN YOU CNN!

That we might turn off the TV if they call it?

CNN's exit poll shows Clinton winning 47% of men and 58% of women.  They also have:

whites:
Clinton 61%
uncommitted 30%

blacks
uncommitted 70%
Clinton 26%

15% reporting

Clinton 52,219 61%
 Uncommitted 28,385 33%
 Kucinich 3,427 4%
 Dodd 696 1%
 Gravel 409 1%

It should get a lot closer then unless the exit polls were way off.

The CNN exit poll also suggests that the result would have been reasonably close with Obama and Edwards on the ballot:

Clinton: 45
Obama: 37
Edwards: 12
Kucinich: 2
Rchardson: 1

(Of course, this is skewed by turnout and a lack of campaigning by all involved.)

They just called it now.

Anything above 60% is a victory for Clinton. The polls only had her in the mid-50s and without Obama or Edwards on the ticket it's pretty much impossible for them to get any part of the news cycle to themselves.

Clinton 79,492 60%
 Uncommitted 44,810 34%
 Kucinich 5,416 4%
 Dodd 1,065 1%
 Gravel 644 1%

23% reporting

As long as she continues to dip...im fine with the results. :)

Clinton 82,991 60%
 Uncommitted 46,946 34%
 Kucinich 5,586 4%
 Dodd 1,099 1%
 Gravel 669 1%

24% reporting

UNCOMMITTED TAKES EMMET COUNTY!

UNCOMMITTED SURGE!!!!!

:D

But why Emmet County? I would have expected Wayne County, and maybe Washtenaw and Ingham Counties, but why Emmet?

I think Ann Arbor is there, which has Michigan University. I think...

No, Emmet County is at the far north end of the LP. Washtenaw County is Ann Arbor and UMich (and Ingham County is East Lansing, where MSU is).

Oh. I got confused.

Emmet county is 95% white with a population of 35,000. No idea why uncommitted did so well there.

Uncommitted continues to move up...

Clinton's below 60%!

Well, there goes my prediction. :P

Poor Mike Gravel. He can't even finish above the dropped-out Chris Dodd.

Getting very close to mine though! :)

Clinton 137,931 59%
 Uncommitted 84,532 36%
 Kucinich 9,994 4%
 Dodd 1,719 1%
 Gravel 1,066 0%

43% reporting

Pretty sure im loving it currently.

Pretty sad performance by Clinton.

I love me some Edwards.

Uncommitted leads Washtenaw County. Wayne County still looks very oddly unlike the exit poll, though the 34% may be almost exclusively white areas.

2/5 of Democrats have rejected Hillary Clinton when she was pitted against an eighty year old man and a dwarf. Not good news for Hilldawg.

One good thing is that they didn't even mention the results on the evening news for the Dems. If the media made much noise about it, people would probably take it the wrong way and think that Clinton had actually won sixty percent of the vote without understanding the background.

Knew it. Everyone is reading the totally meaningless results as some kind of rejection of Hillary Clinton.

Hillary won only 26% of blacks. That augurs poorly for her SC performance.

Wayne County tightened substantially with the most recent 14% in (from something like 63-32 to 53-42), so it may in the end reflect the exit poll. Clinton has probably won Ingham County, unless East Lansing isn't in at all or something.

If uncommitted gets above 40% I'll be happy.

If only blacks had voted:

Uncommitted 70
Clinton 26

Now, that would have been Hillary-ious

Clinton 208,061 58%
 Uncommitted 131,421 37%
 Kucinich 14,488 4%
 Dodd 2,526 1%
 Gravel 1,597 0%

65% reporting - I noticed she also lost Washtenaw Co. too.

Go uncommited Go!

Unless you know something I don't, Washtenaw is only 47% in, though Uncommitted does indeed lead.

uncommitted leads in Emmet and Washtenaw Counties.  it's up to 44% in Wayne County.

It was a big lead when I saw it.

Clinton 259,898 57%
 Uncommitted 175,707 38%
 Kucinich 17,701 4%
 Dodd 3,119 1%
 Gravel 1,919 0%

81% reporting

83% reporting, and Clinton's lead is down to 17%, 56-39.

If it hits 40% I will be VERY pleased.

It may well; almost all of what's left is from counties where Uncommitted is over 40%.

Not only that, but several counties (Dickinson, Houghton, Otsego and Wexford) are not reporting uncommitted returns.  They're all small, but might together be enough to bump it over 40% as it is.

What's the deal with Clare and Kalkaska?

It's pretty standard as election returns go.

In 2004, I believe there were a small handful of counties that hadn't reported by the next morning.

Whats the website where we can see the returns?

Apparently there were about 20 counties that had computer systems that wouldn't count Uncommitted.

Is that...legal?  Will it be fixed or are we going to not get full results from those counties (LAME)?

It's going to be a close race in Wayne County and for Undecided to break 40%.

94% Reporting
      
Clinton   303,636                       55%
Uncommitted   217,374   40%
Kucinich   20,514    4%   
Dodd   3,595                           1%   
Gravel   2,237                           0%   

Wow, Clinton leads Uncommitted only 55-40. Not much of a win there.

Clinton 306,395 55%
 Uncommitted 221,374 40%
 Kucinich 20,771 4%
 Dodd 3,626 1%
 Gravel 2,251 0%

94% reporting

I don't know if it's legal. I could see their results being thrown out if someone challenges them in court.

They say that they managed to fix it... in most of them... they think.

Well it looks like the African-American vote went heavily for Obama after this past week's absurd racial drama, which ironically ended today.
Other than the race factor Clinton did better among lower income people, women, poorer people, married people, and older people.
The exit polls show Clinton still would have won had both Obama and Edwards been on the ballot though, 45-37 over Obama.

Washtenaw's all in; Uncommitted won 46-44. Surprisingly close race in Kent County (Grand Rapids) as well, though it's all in and voted for Clinton.

wow, Clinton lost two counties, Emmet and Washtenaw.

wow.

...which means if Obama didn't anger people by pulling his name off the ballot and campaigned there he would have slaughtered her.

Democracy lives in America.

Mostly.

I think.

She may lose Wayne County, too, if the remaining 8% is from mostly black areas. (And there's always the chance one or both of the two sluggard counties went crazy the way Emmet did.)

Three counties did not fix it: Houghton, Otsego and Wexford. Democracy is in ill health.

Well, in looking at the results (I just got home), that's a surprise; for once I called a state correctly. :P  (Clinton 50% in Michigan)

50.3% Clinton in Wayne County.  Booo.

Looks like Uncommitted will narrowly miss 40%.

Kalkaska County is still out, a few precincts in Livingston County, and that's it.

Clare County made its belated appearance as well; strongly for Clinton. All that's left now are Kalkaska County and a handful of votes from Livingston County.

I'm still wondering what happened in Emmet County.

Yeah, and Kalaska will secure Uncommitted <40%.  Probably will be pretty close on the GOP side.

As long as it rounds up, we are good.

Politico on Clinton's weak showing.



http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0108/Michigan_results.html

Michigan Democratic Primary Results    

Precincts: 100%
Source: AP 

Candidate	Votes	%
Hillary Clinton	328,151	55%
Uncommitted	236,723	40%
Dennis Kucinich	21,708	4%
Chris Dodd	3,853	1%
Mike Gravel	2,363	0%

Gravel broke 1% in some counties :)

I still think that people should have backed him instead of "uncommitted". :P

Wexford and Otsego look likme thy're still having the computer problem- no uncommited votes in either county.

So...

What's Emmet County about?

Isn't it one of those filled with old rich Republicans? So presumably what Democrats there are are mostly in the service industry?

Just a guess and probably badly wrong.

Actually pretty spot on in the demographics.

But yeah, it is odd to see it vote for Uncommitted when none of the other similar counties such as Grand Traverse did; although Grand Traverse has more industrial presence than Emmett, so that may be it.

No - it's absolutely NOT legal.

:)


Maybe there are more Catholics in Grand Traverse? Btw, any idea why Kucinich did so well in Leelanau and Benzie counties?

Also odd; in Delta county more people voted uncommitted in the GOP primary than the Democratic one.

I believe I heard that was a mistake and that the totals were reversed.

What Gabu said.


Probably on Grand Traverse. As to Kucinich's success, no clue there.....both counties are pretty heavy tourist/recreational areas with service based economies, fairly wealthy/retired areas as to the residents themselves. Maybe just one of those cases of a low sample size resulting in odd results.

Hah. I considered it, but voted Uncommitted due to my desire for Obama to win.