Talk Elections

Some highlights of preliminary data from exit polls conducted for The Associated Press and television networks in the Louisiana presidential primaries Saturday:

DEMOGRAPHICS

Blacks were close to half the Democratic electorate, while nine in 10 Republican primary voters were white. As is typical for presidential primaries, men predominated in the GOP electorate while more women voted in the Democratic contest. Close to one in 10 voters in both primaries were under age 30 and one in four were over age 65.

HURRICANE KATRINA IMPACT

One in seven Democratic voters and about one in 10 Republicans said Hurricane Katrina caused their families severe hardship and they have not recovered. About one in four in both parties said the storm caused severe hardship but they have recovered. Two-thirds of Republicans and a little more than a half of Democrats said Katrina did not cause their family severe hardship. There also were early indications from the exit poll that the northern part of Louisiana was a larger share of the electorate in both parties compared to past primaries, reflecting a population decline in New Orleans and other coastal areas.

ECONOMIC CONCERNS

Given three choices, nearly half of Democratic voters said the economy was the most important issue facing the country. About three in 10 said the war in Iraq and the rest said health care. Nine in 10 Democrats rated the national economy not good or poor.

Given four choices, one in three Republican voters said the economy was the top issue. Each of the other three choices - the war in Iraq, illegal immigration and terrorism - was picked by one in five GOP voters. Half of Republicans viewed the economy positively.

RACE AND GENDER

In the historic Democratic contest to nominate either the first black or first woman for president, about one in five voters said gender was an important factor in their vote and about as many said that about race.

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From partial samples of 709 Democratic primary voters and 368 Republican primary voters conducted by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International in 30 precincts across Louisiana on Saturday. Margin of sampling error plus or minus 5 percentage points for the Democratic primary and 6 points for the Republican.

CNN projects Nebraska for Obama.

I'm not but he may get under 55%

I'm wondering why, with 37% of the precincts reporting and Obama leading by 35%, that CNN isn't calling Washington for Obama?

CNN projects Obama in Washington state.

The legend of a sunken kingdom appears in both Cornish and Breton mythology. In Christian times it came to be viewed as a sort of Cornish Sodom and Gomorrah, an example of divine wrath provoked by unvirtuous living, although the parallels were limited in that Lyonesse remained in Cornish thought very much a mystical and mythical land, comparable to the role of Tir na nÓg in Irish mythology.

I don't know. Obama was expected to win these caucuses. He, like Romney, does very well in them. He hasn't won a state that he wasn't supposed to win. He'll win Vermont easily, but I still think Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island will go to Hillary, though closer than expected.

Also, stop saying Hillary!.  Really.  Please.  I'm an Obama delegate and you're even annoying the piss out of me.

And you'd think that I want to read campaign signs when I come here why--?

Delegate Estimates

Louisiana Delegate Projection: Obama 32 – Clinton 24

Nebraska Delegate Projection:  Obama 16 – Clinton 8

Washington Delegate Projection:  Obama 52 – Clinton 26

Virgin Islands Delegate Projection:  Obama 3 – Clinton 0

Higher Education
    * Create the American Opportunity Tax Credit: Obama will make college affordable for all Americans by creating a new American Opportunity Tax Credit. This universal and fully refundable credit will ensure that the first $4,000 of a college education is completely free for most Americans, and will cover two-thirds the cost of tuition at the average public college or university and make community college tuition completely free for most students. Obama will also ensure that the tax credit is available to families at the time of enrollment by using prior year's tax data to deliver the credit when tuition is due.
    * Simplify the Application Process for Financial Aid: Obama will streamline the financial aid process by eliminating the current federal financial aid application and enabling families to apply simply by checking a box on their tax form, authorizing their tax information to be used, and eliminating the need for a separate application.

My 15 year old daughter watched a couple of minutes of the speech. Her unsolicited comment was "That's going to cost a lot."

It's not the government shelling out money, it's a tax credit. From his website:

    * Simplify the Application Process for Financial Aid: Obama will streamline the financial aid process by eliminating the current federal financial aid application and enabling families to apply simply by checking a box on their tax form, authorizing their tax information to be used, and eliminating the need for a separate application.

Require 100 Hours of Service in College: Obama will establish a new American Opportunity Tax Credit that worth $4,000 a year in exchange for 100 hours of public service a year.

Ohio (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/OH/index.html) is New Hampshire, but with a 14% black electorate, rather than maybe 3%, and also much lighter on middle to upper middle class Anglos, so clear edge to Clinton, but maybe more in play than Texas.

"These are caucus states by and large, or in the case of Louisiana, you know, a very strong and very proud African-American electorate, which I totally respect and understand."

She also downplayed many of Obama's Super Tuesday victories, describing them as states that Democrats should not expect to win in November.

"It is highly unlikely we will win Alaska or North Dakota or Idaho or Nebraska," she said, naming several of Obama's red state wins. "But we have to win Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, California, Arizona, New Mexico, Florida, Michigan … And we've got to be competitive in places like Texas, Missouri and Oklahoma."