Talk Elections

General Politics => International General Discussion => Topic started by: Jens on March 07, 2008, 05:02:08 AM



Title: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Jens on March 07, 2008, 05:02:08 AM
Greens Analyseinstitut:

Socialdemocrats: 22 %
Social Liberal Party: 5,1 %
Conservative: 9,9 %
Socialist People's Party: 19,5 %
Christian Democrats: 0,2 %
Danish People's Party: 14,8 %
Liberal Party (Venstre): 26,3 %
New Alliance: 0,4 %
Unity List: 1,8 %

The government still hold a majority but the opposition is gaining and SF is almost the same size as SD. That is wild ;D


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Michael Z on March 07, 2008, 05:11:07 AM
That is interesting. Almost comparable to the rise of Die Linke in Germany, though obviously not to such a scale.

What were SF's numbers at the last election?


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Jens on March 07, 2008, 07:03:19 AM
That is interesting. Almost comparable to the rise of Die Linke in Germany, though obviously not to such a scale.

What were SF's numbers at the last election?
13 %, up  from 6% in the 2005 election. The SF Chairman, Villy Søvndal is probably the most popular politician right now.

And Syriza too. In Finland the party is in down fall.
Remember that the Left Alliance in Finland mostly is the old communist party. SF is a combo of VAS and Vihr - We have no green party and the most extreme ex-commies are in UL.


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: afleitch on March 07, 2008, 08:15:20 AM
Our socialists (I can proudly say Scotland has an increasingly divergent party system :) ) bombed. Because they split and in fact they were rubbish 40 something ex Militant student political has beens.

The 'intellectual left' in Scotland is found within the Scottish Greens who, unfortunately fell back in 2007 to 4.0% and were punished by the list system which left us with just Patrick and Robin. The Greens themselves in Scotland are nationalist (which has a different meaning in Scotland as most of you should be aware) and socially libertarian. Despite the mathematical, more than electoral set back, they performed well locally and now hold 5 seats on Glasgow City Council (including one in the Gorbals) for example and 3 seats on Edinburgh City council. They have an urban and rural reach, but the SNP were too dominant in the rural areas to allow much progression.


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Hash on March 07, 2008, 09:38:43 AM
The numbers of the European socialist left are interesting. Big gains in Denmark, Greece, and Germany.


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Michael Z on March 07, 2008, 01:01:19 PM
The numbers of the European socialist left are interesting. Big gains in Denmark, Greece, and Germany.

And so are the hard right. I don't think that's a coincidence, since the main parties in many European countries have become more centrist recently.


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 07, 2008, 01:03:29 PM
The numbers of the European socialist left are interesting. Big gains in Denmark, Greece, and Germany.


Yet hard left parties have not done so well elsewhere. Need to be careful about pointing to supposed pan-european trends.


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Јas on March 07, 2008, 03:41:10 PM
In ... Ireland  left parties have been increasing.

Nope. Not going by last year's general election anyway. :(


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: minionofmidas on March 07, 2008, 03:43:49 PM
In ... Ireland  left parties have been increasing.

Nope. Not going by last year's general election anyway. :(
Unless you take that term to include all parties with a left-of-center wing of some sort. For since the PDs lost, the balance must clearly have gained.


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Јas on March 07, 2008, 04:09:39 PM
Sorry, I just looked at latest Angus Reid poll, and the percentage of Our Selves had increased to 8-9 %.

An Angus Reid monitored poll, it is actually a RedC poll specifically and one which I brought up here (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=61532.msg1469095#msg1469095) - which indeed indicates that SF actually fell 1 point since the last poll and are also 1 point beneath the final RedC poll that was carried out before the election.

In ... Ireland  left parties have been increasing.

Nope. Not going by last year's general election anyway. :(
Unless you take that term to include all parties with a left-of-center wing of some sort. For since the PDs lost, the balance must clearly have gained.

:) An arguable point, though it doesn't necessarily hold. Would need to analyse a full list of those who lost and those who were new to see if such a shift is noticeable. Even within the PDs, yes they lost those undeniably on the right like McDowell, but they also lost the like of Fiona O'Malley (PD-Dún Laoghaire) who I'd have classified as someone of the left. And I actually doubt whether anyone in the PDs is to the right of new TD Leo Varadkar (FG-Dublin W).


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: minionofmidas on March 07, 2008, 04:18:49 PM
You misunderstood me. I just claimed that all the FF, FG, Greens, Labour, SF have a left wing that actually is left of center (rather than just closer to the center than the other wing is), and taken together these parties gained, not that leftwingers themselves gained.
Hardly much of a point. :D


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Јas on March 07, 2008, 04:20:32 PM
You misunderstood me. I just claimed that all the FF, FG, Greens, Labour, SF have a left wing that actually is left of center (rather than just closer to the center than the other wing is), and taken together these parties gained, not that leftwingers themselves gained.
Hardly much of a point. :D

Ah, fair enough.


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Hash on March 07, 2008, 05:22:04 PM
Ok, GUE parties
                 NOW            2009
France            3                   3           
ÙK                  1                   1
Ireland           1                   1
Denmark         1                   (2)         Probably  join greens
Netherlands    2                   3         
Greek              4                   7         
Germany         7                  14         
Finland            1                    1
Sweden           2                   1
Cyprus             2                    2
Spain                1                   2         
Portugal           3                    3
Czech               6                    3
Italy                 7                    4         
                       41                   45

It will be interesting to see if the PCF can keep its seats; it probably will because of the constituencies used.

()


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Jens on March 07, 2008, 06:29:05 PM
Ok, GUE parties
                 NOW            2009
France            3                   3           
ÙK                  1                   1
Ireland           1                   1
Denmark         1                   (2)         Probably  join greens
Netherlands    2                   3         
Greek              4                   7         
Germany         7                  14         
Finland            1                    1
Sweden           2                   1
Cyprus             2                    2
Spain                1                   2         
Portugal           3                    3
Czech               6                    3
Italy                 7                    4         
                       41                   45
Will join the Greens. Our current MEP is standing for reelection and she most certainly will not be in a group with unreformed commies.


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Јas on March 07, 2008, 07:42:53 PM
Sorry, however, SF will keep their two seats in EP.

They should hold their Northern Ireland seat certainly.

I think, at this point, that they'll lose their Dublin seat. Dublin is being reduced to a 3-seater next time, and SF just won't get a high enough 1st preference share or more importantly, enough transfers to be genuinely competitive. If the result in Dublin is anything other than 1 FF; 1 FG; 1 Lab then it will be somewhat surprising.

Maybe, just maybe, they can gain 1 in the North-West constituency. But it's too early to say - depends on whether or not Harkin runs for re-election and who else decides to run. (There's certainly 1 FF; 1 FG - the other seat could go in a number of directions).

As it stands, they'll certainly take 1 and are competitive for another, but I certainly don't think that anything so definitive as your statement can be made.


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on March 07, 2008, 07:48:06 PM
Quote
And I actually doubt whether anyone in the PDs is to the right of new TD Leo Varadkar (FG-Dublin W).

Or as loud or as annoying.

Yet another reason not to vote FG.

At this point I would have to say that FG is to the right of FF... sadly. Many of the gains they made last time seem to come from old style small town business\agrihacks or the unbearably smug from posh snobby suburbs like Castleknock (Vardarkar) or D4 (Creighton).

As for the Left, We have one? Joe Higgins lost his seat.. SF are doing they're "we're really radical while we are also FF lite" show.. The Greens... I would finish this sentence but it would involve alot of laughing.

As Jas said, Sinn Fein will almost certainly lose their Dublin EU seat unless there is a huge anti-government swing at the next EU election. (Hard to see FG doing badly and Labour always seem to get a good bit for vote out for things like this...)


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Jens on March 08, 2008, 05:25:25 AM
Quote
And I actually doubt whether anyone in the PDs is to the right of new TD Leo Varadkar (FG-Dublin W).

Or as loud or as annoying.

Yet another reason not to vote FG.

At this point I would have to say that FG is to the right of FF... sadly. Many of the gains they made last time seem to come from old style small town business\agrihacks or the unbearably smug from posh snobby suburbs like Castleknock (Vardarkar) or D4 (Creighton).

As for the Left, We have one? Joe Higgins lost his seat.. SF are doing they're "we're really radical while we are also FF lite" show.. The Greens... I would finish this sentence but it would involve alot of laughing.

As Jas said, Sinn Fein will almost certainly lose their Dublin EU seat unless there is a huge anti-government swing at the next EU election. (Hard to see FG doing badly and Labour always seem to get a good bit for vote out for things like this...)
And yet again the darn Irish managed to turn a discussion into a speech about their strange political system ;)


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Јas on March 08, 2008, 05:44:50 AM
Quote
And I actually doubt whether anyone in the PDs is to the right of new TD Leo Varadkar (FG-Dublin W).

Or as loud or as annoying.

Yet another reason not to vote FG.

At this point I would have to say that FG is to the right of FF... sadly. Many of the gains they made last time seem to come from old style small town businessagrihacks or the unbearably smug from posh snobby suburbs like Castleknock (Vardarkar) or D4 (Creighton).

As for the Left, We have one? Joe Higgins lost his seat.. SF are doing they're "we're really radical while we are also FF lite" show.. The Greens... I would finish this sentence but it would involve alot of laughing.

As Jas said, Sinn Fein will almost certainly lose their Dublin EU seat unless there is a huge anti-government swing at the next EU election. (Hard to see FG doing badly and Labour always seem to get a good bit for vote out for things like this...)
And yet again the darn Irish managed to turn a discussion into a speech about their strange political system ;)

Sorry for the hi-jack! But on behalf of the Irish delegation, I'm going to pass the buck and blame our Finnish colleague for starting it (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=72083.msg1477205#msg1477205). :P


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on March 08, 2008, 06:30:08 AM
Yeah I just needed to get anti-FG rant in. Probably should be moved to General Discussion.


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Gustaf on March 09, 2008, 06:42:26 PM
The Swedish left has been in free-fall for some time. I expect the Greens to over-take them in the next general.


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Jens on March 11, 2008, 06:36:12 AM
And the fun continues. SF is now larger that SD (at least in the polls ;D )

Zapero for Metroexpress: (difference from February poll in () )

Socialdemocrats: 20,2 % (-4,3) 37 M (-8)
Social Liberal Party: 5,1 % (-0,3) 9 M (0)
Conservative: 10 % (-0,1) 18 M (0)
Socialist People's Party: 20,9 % (+5,5) 38 M (+15)
Christian Democrats: 0,1 % (-0,5) 0 M
Danish People's Party: 16,2 % (+1,5) 29 M (+4)
Liberal Party (Venstre): 24,6 % (-1,7) 44 M (-2)
New Alliance: 1,2 % (-0,4) 0 M (-5)
Unity List: 1,7 % (+0.4) 0 M (-4) (this might be misleading since the UL votes is extremely concentrated in Copenhagen and Aarhus, which might enable them to win a direct mandate i Cph and thus gain 2 additional mandates, and reducing the VOK majority to 90 - A slight move of only 0,3 %-point reduces it to 89.)

ABFØ: 47,9%
VOK: 50,8%

Now that would be a strange election


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Hash on March 11, 2008, 07:46:46 AM
Haha.


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Jens on March 16, 2008, 05:44:50 PM
It looks like the good polings for SF wasn't just a fluke.

Catinét Reseach (measured 1052 persons between March 10th and 15th)

A: Socialdemocrats: 21 % 38 M (-7)
B: Social Liberal Party: 4,1 % 7 M (-2)
C: Conservative: 9,1 % 16 M (-2)
F: Socialist People's Party: 20,8 % 37 M (+14)
K: Christian Democrats: 0,9 % 0 M
O: Danish People's Party: 13,6 % 24 M (-1)
V: Liberal Party (Venstre): 27,2 % 49 M (+3)
Y: New Alliance: 1,2 % 0 M (-5)
Ø: Unity List: 2,1 % 4 M

ABFØ: 86 mandates
VCO: 89 mandates

The government's majority is a razor thin as it can be (so an election isn't coming soon ;) ) 48 % to 49,9% (it would take a miracle for NA to bounce back)


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Hash on March 16, 2008, 06:16:26 PM
Lol New Alliance


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Jens on September 01, 2008, 04:03:13 PM
Time to have some polls fun

Two polls done in the same period of time:

First:
Gallup for Berlingske Tidende (conservative newspaper)

A: Socialdemocrats: 23,9% 43 M (-2)
B: Social Liberal Party: 5,1% 9 M
C: Conservative: 10,6% 19 M (+1)
F: Socialist People's Party: 17,2% 31 M (+8)
K: Christian Democrats: 0,4% 0 M
O: Danish People's Party: 14,5% 26 M (+1)
V: Liberal Party (Venstre): 26,0% 47 (+1)
Y: Liberal Alliance (new name for NA): 0,6% 0 M (-5)
Ø: Unity List: 1,7% 0 M (-4)

Second:

Megafon for TV 2 (largest television channel)

A: Socialdemocrats: 25,1% 44 M (-1)
B: Social Liberal Party: 5,9% 11 M (+2)
C: Conservative: 9,9% 18 M
F: Socialist People's Party: 17,8% 31 M (+8)
K: Christian Democrats: 0,0% 0 M
O: Danish People's Party: 13,9% 24 M (-1)
V: Liberal Party (Venstre): 24,7% 43 (-3)
Y: Liberal Alliance (new name for NA): 0,5% 0 M (-5)
Ø: Unity List: 2,0% 4 M

Gallup polled 1587 persons between the 21th and 28th of August. Megafon polled 1008 persons between the 25th and 28th of August.

Difference:
Gallup: Government and support (VC + O): 92 M; Opposition (ABFØ): 83 M
Megafon: Government and support (VC + O): 85 M; Opposition (ABFØ): 90 M


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Hash on September 01, 2008, 04:09:43 PM
What happened with the New Alliance?


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Jens on September 01, 2008, 05:44:41 PM
They've been toast all year. 3 out of 5 MPs left the party (1 to Venstre, 1 to Socdems, 1 independent). Last week they changed name to Liberal Alliance and are trying to brand them self as a libetarian party


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Dan the Roman on September 01, 2008, 09:01:24 PM
Doesn't the Danish People's Party tend to poll below what it gets? I remember it polling in the 10-11 range in 2007 and then getting 13.5%.


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Jens on September 02, 2008, 06:56:13 AM
Doesn't the Danish People's Party tend to poll below what it gets? I remember it polling in the 10-11 range in 2007 and then getting 13.5%.
Sort of. In 2001 DF polled well below its final result, but both 2005 and 2007 wasn't that far from the result. Socialist People's Party also polled below in 2007, but over in 2005. There is some thruth to that many people fail to admit that they vote DF when being polled. One factor in 2007 was an extremely powerfull performance by DF's leader Pia Kjærsgaard in the final party leaders debate (an equally lousy performance by New Alliance's leader, Naser Khader, probably cost the party 1 to 2 %-points)


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Jens on September 05, 2008, 03:04:30 PM
Yet another poll

Capacent Epinion for DR (Danish BBC)

A: Socialdemocrats: 23,8% 42 M (-3)
B: Social Liberal Party: 5,0% 9 M
C: Conservative: 10,2% 18 M
F: Socialist People's Party: 18,8% 33 M (+10)
K: Christian Democrats: 0,2% 0 M
O: Danish People's Party: 14,7% 26 M (+1)
V: Liberal Party (Venstre): 23,6% 42 (-4)
Y: Liberal Alliance (new name for NA): 0,5% 0 M (-5)
Ø: Unity List: 2,8% 5 M (+1)
Government and support (VC + O): 86 M; Opposition (ABFØ): 89 M

Looks like the government's majority is gone.:)


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Bono on September 05, 2008, 03:20:51 PM
This would matter if the elections hadn't just been last year.


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Jens on September 05, 2008, 03:25:45 PM
This would matter if the elections hadn't just been last year.
We don't have any lower limit between elections. The government has a razor thin majority and lots of trouble with DF. The bad polls also puts the government under presure.


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Dan the Roman on September 06, 2008, 12:25:14 AM
Are these polls actually much worse than the result last time? It seems that the Conservatives are doing the same, DF a bit better, Venstre a bit worse.


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Jens on September 06, 2008, 03:07:29 AM
Are these polls actually much worse than the result last time? It seems that the Conservatives are doing the same, DF a bit better, Venstre a bit worse.
they are not that bad, but VCO only managed the smallest possible majority (90 not counting Liberal Alliance's 5) at the last election and only because a Faeroe Island MP supported them. The more important thing is the opposition's improvement. After last election they had 81 mandates (currently 82).  In this poll they have a majority (89 in Denmark. 91-92 with the North Atlantic mandates).  It's only 7-8 mandates that have moved, but that is enough to cause a change of government if an election were helt today.


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Jens on March 03, 2009, 06:45:30 PM
Poll fun from Denmark. The government is under pressure in the polls and the Socialists keeps their strong position:


Gallup for Berlingske Tidende (conservative newspaper) 22th February 2009

A: Socialdemocrats: 25,6% 45 M (-)
B: Social Liberal Party: 3,7% 7 M (-2)
C: Conservative: 11,9% 21 M (+3)
F: Socialist People's Party: 19,3% 34 M (+11)
I: Liberal Alliance: 0,4% 0 M (-5)
K: Christian Democrats: 0,5% 0 M
O: Danish People's Party: 13,2% 23 M (-2)
V: Liberal Party (Venstre): 23,3% 41 (-5)
Ø: Unity List: 2,0% 4 M (-)
Government and support (VC + O): 85 M; Opposition (ABFØ): 90 M

Another poll

Rambøll for Jyllandsposten (liberal newspaper) 27th February 2009

A: Socialdemocrats: 27,5% 50 M ()
B: Social Liberal Party: 4,6% 8 M (-1)
C: Conservative: 10,3% 19 M (+1)
F: Socialist People's Party: 18,4% 33 M (+10)
K: Christian Democrats: 0,5% 0 M
I: Liberal Alliance: 0,4% 0 M (-5)
O: Danish People's Party: 14,6% 26 M (+1)
V: Liberal Party (Venstre): 21,5% 39 (-7)
Ø: Unity List: 1,9% 0 M (-4)
Government and support (VC + O): 84 M; Opposition (ABFØ): 91 M

And the latest Liberal Alliance fun. The party founder, Naser Khader left the party last month and became a independent MP - because he felt the party was becoming too libertarian - hilarious :)


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Jens on March 06, 2009, 08:27:33 AM
Brand new poll

Greens for Børsen (business newspaper) 5th of March 2009
A: Socialdemocrats: 24,7% 45 M (-)
B: Social Liberal Party: 4,0% 7 M (-2)
C: Conservative: 10,5% 19 M (+1)
F: Socialist People's Party: 21,7% 39 M (+16)
I: Liberal Alliance: 0,2% 0 M (-5)
K: Christian Democrats: 0,5% 0 M
O: Danish People's Party: 14,6% 26 M (+1)
V: Liberal Party (Venstre): 21,8% 39 (-7)
Ø: Unity List: 1,9% 0 M (-4)
Government and support (VC + O): 84 M; Opposition (ABFØ): 91 M

Even with Unity List just missing the threshold the Socialdemocrats, Socialist People's Party and Social Liberals would have a solid majority (93-94 with the North Atlantic mandates). Venstre is really being punished for their resent tax reform.
There is a chance that the government will get quite a beating in the coming EU-elections in June and local elections in November.


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Hash on March 06, 2009, 06:13:55 PM
The New Alliance is entertaining.


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Jens on August 30, 2009, 06:22:50 AM
News - Social Demcrats and Socialist People's Party is opting for close coorporation:

http://politiken.dk/newsinenglish/article777587.ece

The Social Democrats and Socialist People’s Party announce their formal partnership.

After a lengthy engagement, the opposition Social Democratic and Socialist People’s parties have formally announced a partnership designed to take them into coalition government after the next election.

“This is a big and happy day for the Social Democrats and the Socialist People’s Party , a day that will change Danish politics,” Social Democratic Leader Helle Thorning-Schmidt told the assembled Copenhagen media in announcing the partnership.

“For generations the Social Democrats have been a governing party. That responsibility and honour is something we want to share with the Socialist People’s Party after the next election,” says Thorning-Schmidt, who is the two parties’ candidate for prime minister.

Change
“There is a need for a movement that can change Denmark. Now there are clear lines in Danish politics. Do people want the Liberal-Conservative-Danish People’s Party government of the past eight years? Or do they want change?” says Socialist People’s Party Leader Villy Søvndal.

The partnership does not appear to preclude other parties joining a Social Democratic-led government. Thorning-Schmidt suggests that the Social Liberal Party could also be a candidate to join a government, although cardinal issues for the Social Democrats and Socialist People’s Party are pre-determined platforms on immigration and tax.

“But there are lots of other policy areas that a government has to address, and here the Social Liberals would have lots of influence,” Thorning Schmidt says.

“If the Social Liberals join a government, they should of course have influence,” she says.


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: minionofmidas on August 30, 2009, 06:27:06 AM
So no more tolerations?


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Jens on August 30, 2009, 06:28:18 AM
What do you mean?


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 30, 2009, 06:57:13 AM
Greens Analyseinstitut:

Socialdemocrats: 22 %
Social Liberal Party: 5,1 %
Conservative: 9,9 %
Socialist People's Party: 19,5 %
Christian Democrats: 0,2 %
Danish People's Party: 14,8 %
Liberal Party (Venstre): 26,3 %
New Alliance: 0,4 %
Unity List: 1,8 %

The government still hold a majority but the opposition is gaining and SF is almost the same size as SD. That is wild ;D

Not a so bad news... :P


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Jens on August 30, 2009, 06:58:34 AM
Greens Analyseinstitut:

Socialdemocrats: 22 %
Social Liberal Party: 5,1 %
Conservative: 9,9 %
Socialist People's Party: 19,5 %
Christian Democrats: 0,2 %
Danish People's Party: 14,8 %
Liberal Party (Venstre): 26,3 %
New Alliance: 0,4 %
Unity List: 1,8 %

The government still hold a majority but the opposition is gaining and SF is almost the same size as SD. That is wild ;D

Not a so bad news... :P
And even better - SF hasn't dropped in the polls :D


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: minionofmidas on August 30, 2009, 07:03:04 AM
Didn't you use to support Social Democratic governments from the outside?


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Jens on August 30, 2009, 07:07:59 AM
Didn't you use to support Social Democratic governments from the outside?
Not really - Historically the S-governments or SR-governments that hasn't been majority governments, has relied more on support from the centre parties or the Conservatives and Venstre. The last years of Nyrup (1999-2001), the short lived J.O. Krag (1966-1967) and first Anker Jørgensen governments (1972-1973) where the only times where S really relied on and cooperated with SF


Title: Re: There is something weird in the state of Denmark - latest polls
Post by: Jens on June 12, 2010, 05:04:47 PM
Been a while since I posted new polls and a lot has changed. Some weeks ago the government and Danish People's Party launched the "Recovery Plan" a plan to improve the economy and remove the current financial deficit. The plan included a significant cut in several social benefits including unemployment benefit cut from 4 to 2 years (the so called dagpenge (day money) a selfinsurance system run by the unions) a limit on children benefits at 35.000 kr per year (bacially removing any childrens benefits for child number 3+) and heavily limiting the deductability of union fees. The plan has turned out to be quite unpopular and will affect voters who voted Danish People's Party because they saw DF as the party that defended the poor (white). The result is these latest polls:

From Børsen (the major business newspaper)

A Social Democrats: 30,3 % 53 M (+8)
B Social Liberals: 4,8 % 8 M (-1)
C Conservative People's Party: 7,3 % 13 M (-5)
F Socialist People's Party: 19,4 % 34 M (+11)
I Liberal Alliance: 3,1 % 6 M (+1)
K Christian Democrats: 0,3 % 0
O Danish People's Party: 10,7 % 19 M (-6)
V Liberal Party (Venstre): 21,4 % 37 M (-10)
Ø Unity List: 2,7 % 5 M (+1)

http://img.borsen.dk/img/cms/cmsmedia/978_content_2_7800.pdf

Government and DF (VCO) 69 M - a loss of 20! mandates
Opposition (ABFØ) 100 M!! - The left wing parties (AFØ) would hold a solid majority of 92 mandates (plus 3 North Atlantic for a total of 95 mandates of 179)