Talk Elections

Couldn't think of anywhere else to put this so...

Which state house/senates d'yi all think with flip this year?

TN Senate will go Republican.

The National Conference of State Legislatures lists the following top 10 battleground states:

http://www.ncsl.org (http://www.ncsl.org)

Colorado Senate. Democrats need just one seat to take power of the chamber from the Republican Party.

Georgia House of Representatives. A new redistricting plan gives Republicans the best chance they've had in decades to make gains.

Indiana House of Representatives. Democrats hold a one seat advantage in a chamber that has gone back and forth in recent years.

Maine Senate. Only one seat separates the parties in this chamber in a state which is expected to be a presidential battleground.

Montana House of Representatives. A new redistricting plan gives Democrats their best hope in years to seize control of the House.

North Carolina House of Representatives. Following the 2002 election, a party switch left the chamber tied and legislative power shared by both parties.

Oklahoma House of Representatives. Republicans, who have had steady gains in recent elections, only need three seats to take control of this chamber.

Oregon Senate. Tied 15 to 15, both parties are determined to seize control.

Vermont House of Representatives. With more third party members than any other state, a coalition leadership might not be out of the question.

Washington Senate and House of Representatives. This has been the most competitive legislature in the past decade. Both chambers are toss-ups.

PA-170:  Brendan Boyle will beat George Kenney!!!!  Sorry KeystonePhil, you'll be needing some Kleenexes for thsi one as well as Melissa Brown's finale loss.

Did you read the question Handzus? It says which state legislatures would flip. The PA Senate and PA House will be Republican for awhile. Also, the Dems always think they are putting up a strong candidate against Kenney and he wins easily. I see no difference this time.

If I'm not mistaken, there are a few competitve ones out in Montgomery County as well.  Even Ellen Bard's seat could go Democrat.

It looks like the Republican Party will stay in controll of the Iowa State House.

Jon Fox will win there. Plus, with a Boyle win and a Shapiro win, you still don't have the House. You won't have a Dem controlled House for awhile.

This I belleve. from what I read, a lot of the GOP is pretty upset with the guy who switched. I think he lost his seat in the recent primary.

I predict that the Democrats wil ltake control of both halves of the Idaho legislature.











Just kidding!

I disagree.  As someone who lives in the district, the area leans Democratic and Fox is a lot more polarizing than Shapiro, who Democrats have embraced.  This is a pickup for us in the house.

It might be a lean Dem district but Fox has a huge name ID advantage. He might not will it easily but he'll keep the seat GOP.

Jeffry Coy's (D) district, I think it's the 89th, has always been close.  Coy resigned to go to the new Gaming Commission.  It's likely to go GOP.

There won't be a switch in MA.  The best the republicans could hope for is a minority in either house that could sustain a veto from Governor Romney.  There could be a couple upsets because of gay marraige though

The 50th Assembly District of Wisconsin and Illinois District 53 might just go Libertarian, though the former has a better chance.

Polls?

Phillip, there are never polls for state legislative elections.

So then the indication that those seats might go Libertarian is what?

Well first of all, that's not true. Of course it isn't nationwide news but polls are conducted for local races.

And like Philip said, if polls are "never" taken for these races, how would you know what the Libertarian chances are?

I stated they had a chance - at least a better one than most Libertarians do. I've given the full reasons their chances are better in another thread, which shouldn't be too old, so look for it. In short, Kuester has a chance because the district is very libertarian leaning and he has managed to get more funding than the incumbant, Bludorn has a chance because redistricting made the disctrict more conservative and the incumbant is a liberal Republican. They could still lose, but I think their chances are good.

How good do you think their chances are? 50/50?

It would be good progress, but I'm just not convinced. I guess we'll see.

Maybe 55% for Kuester, since the incumbant has done nothing but bring attention to him(which resulted in positive press for him, negative for her). 40% for Bludorn, depending on how hard he works, since his campaign is very grassroots due to lack of funding.

Of course, I could just be overly optimistic, but if anyone here lives in those areas please throw our guys some votes.

Nebraska's officially non-partisan Unicameral will remain overwhelmingly Republican.  Right now it is 36 R, 13 D, 3 I.  Legilative candidates run without party label here, though the state party clearly pulls for and helps fund the candidates from their respective party.  The primary in May is also non-partisan and the top two finishers advance to the November election.  Hence, you can end up with two from the same party contesting for a seat in Nov.  I know at least two districts have two Republicans running this year.

Nebraska has the coolest legislature in the world.  :-)

An update:

Democrats not only picked up the 1 Senate seat, they picked up 5 House seat to take control of both chambers by one vote in each.

Republicans pick up 19 House seats and 3 Senate seats with one still counting.  I suspect that their 94R:86D control of the House is a first time since Reconstruction sort of result.

The Republicans picked up 3 seats to take control.

Iowa Not mentioned in the NCSL's list of battleground states, but a 4 seat pickup in the Senate, makes that body a 25:25 split.

The Democrats maintained their one seat majority.  In the House, the Republicans picked up 6 seats, to make it 76D:73R:2O.

Minnesota Another state not mentioned in the NCSL list.  Democrats pick up 14 seats in the House to make it 68R:66DFL

Democrats pick up 2 seats in the House, with 1 race undecided.  If they win that seat it will be a 50D:50R split.  But the Democrats also picked up 6 Senate seats to take control there 27D:23R.

Democrats pick up 5 seats to retake control 63D:57R.

Republicans pick up 3 times 3 seats, to assume a 57R:44D majority.

Democrats pick up 3 seats to make it 18D:12R.

Tennessee Republicans pick up 2 seats to take a 17R:16D majority in the Senate.

There are still 7 3rd party members, but the Democrats picked up 14 seats to take a clear 83D:60R:7O majority.

Democrats pick up 1, with a chance for another to take control of the Senate, 25D:23R:1 undecided.  They extend their House majority by 3 to 55D:43R.

Incidentally, Washington voters voted for a semi-Louisiana plan for partisan elections.  In the primary, candidates from all parties are placed on the same ballot.  The two top vote-getters regardless of party will contest the general election.  This differs from Louisiana elections where a candidate with a majority is elected without a run-off. 

Overall, Dems take control of the lower house in 3 states: Colorado, North Carolina, and Vermont, while the GOP takes control in 3 states: Georgia, Indiana, and Oklahoma.  The Iowa House goes from GOP-control to tied.

In the upper houses, Democrats take control in Colorado, Iowa, Montana, and Washington, while the Republicans take control in Tennessee.

Very interesting

Tom Kuester got 14% of the vote in the 50th district of Wisconsin. The Libertarians must be pleased with that number

Correction on Iowa.  The State H of R is still Republican (barely) by a 51 to 49 seat margin.  The State Senate is tied, 25 to 25, after a 4 seat Democratic pickup.  (The Lt Gov does not preside, so they will have to develop a power sharing scheme for the state senate.)

Incidentally, from the NCSL, it shows these nationwide totals:
State Legislature lower houses:
Democrat:  2706, Republican: 2689, Other:  14  Undecided:  2

State Legislature upper houses:
Democrat: 950,  Republican: 966, Other:  3,  Undecided:  3

Grand total (calculated by me):
Democrat: 3656,  Republican: 3655, Other:  17,  Undecided:  5

Now that is a pretty narrow nationwide margin!

Bite those fingernails!

At this point, there are three races for the Maine House of Representatives where recounts have yet to officially determine the winner (well, technically none of the results are official until the Governor certifies them as such, but you know what I mean).  The remaining 148 House races break 75D:71R:1GI(Green Independent):1 Independent, so the Democrats only need to win one of those races to win an outright majority.  They led in one of those races in the initial count, but fell behind in the recount, and although there must have been more disputed ballots then the margin for the recount to not have been conclusive a poster (one who posts messages online - I'm not sure if anyone uses that word in that way besides me but I developed it independently at least) at a conservative Maine web site says that the Republican nominee has definately won that race.  It could be that there weren't enough disputed ballots which could possibly have been votes for the Democratic nominee to make a difference.  A Democratic incumbent who trailed in the initial count moved ahead in undisputed ballots in the recount, but the same poster said that the result of that recount was inconclusive.  The third inconclusive recount had the Democratic challenger gain a couple votes on the Republican incumbent and was only down by 4, with more disputed ballots (I'm not sure how many), but the Republican poster expected the Republican incumbent to be revealed the winner in that race.

If the final result is what it appeared it would be before the recounts began, which is what you, jimretex, had it as, then the Republicans have actually gained 7 seats (or 8 if you consider that one Republican state Representative died late this past summer - the Republican nominee, I believe his wife, won his seat in the general election).  After the 2002 elections, the count was 80D:67R:1GI:3I, but in the course of the Legislature (in the two-year sense - "session" means something different in Maine), one Republican and one Independent Representative became a Democrat, making the count 82D:66R:IGI:2I.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

In many states, the legislature is the judge of the elections of its members.  This is also true of Congress.  Do you know if this is the case in Maine?

There have been a few recounts in Texas, and there is still a possiblity that the losing candidate will ask the Legislature  to make a decision.

There is also a Texas Senate race where the winning candidate is being challenged by a losing candidate, who is not so incidentally his former mistress.  She claims that he doesn't live in the district (which is a requirement in Texas), and he owns a house elsewhere that he has filed for a homestead exemption (which is only granted for owner-occupied houses).  He claims that while it is true that while he owns a house elsewhere, that he and his wife spend most of their time at his mother's house in the district.

Is this winning State Senate candidate a Republican or a Democrat?

I think in most states, the Secretary of State certifies the results, but probably, as with US House and Senate, the membership of eash state legislative house makes the final decision of who is seated and which races are subject to further review.

Democrat.   The primary election was fairly close.   In the general election, he had a Libertarian opponent, as well as his ex-mistress who ran as an independent write-in candidate.

Very little change in New Mexico - there's a reason FairVote-The Center for Voting and Democracy listed us at http://www.fairvote.org/reports/uncontestedraces.htm as one of the highest states for % of uncontested races. No change in the State Senate, although there was a very close race out in the Eastern Plains in District 7 where the R incumbent held on by 36 votes, so the D's hold. The R's picked up one seat in the State House in Southeast New Mexico, in District 58, and it wasn't that close, but the D's hold on here as well.
Third Party News: Two independents picked up 8.9% between them in open Senate 14; a Libertarian running in a race w/no D won 12.5% in House 56; another Libertarian picked up 3% in House 58 (same one as above); and the only Green presence was in the 8th Judicial District District Attorney's race, where he won 25.8% in a race with no R in it. Not very impressive.

The Democrats gained a few seats in the Michigan State House, though the Republicans kept their majority.

58/52 now (according to NCSL) Do you think you can know them off in 2006?

Well, I think we have a decent chance. We have term limits in our state legislature, so things are a bit unpredictable as a result. Always lots of open seats.

If Granholm wins a solid reelection, which I expect that she will, her coattails could win the Dems the House, and possibly put the Senate into play.

*crosses fingers*

The current Michigan CD map needs to go

Yes, it's gerrymandered pretty badly.

Overall results (http://www.ncsl.org/programs/legman/statevote/statevote2004.htm)