Talk Elections

It seems (fingers crossed) that Dean may soon be dropping out from the race … noises coming from Burlington seem to suggest baring a miracle (for Dean or the GOP…hum… I wonder?) in WI that he will exit the race… unless the press really really pump up Edwards he will probably exit after Super Tuesday or perhaps before if Kerry’s Mo remains the Tsunami it is at present…

So what has been the impact of Dean on this race? I ask coz there was a fascinating article in the Economist about it which basically argued that he was kinda like “anger therapy” for the Dems he let the party vent all its anger and frustration, just in time for it to avoid nominating him and start to think rationally again… nominating the more competitive Kerry…in addition Dean forced the other candidates to avoid the trap the Democrats fell into in 2002 and clearly stake out their differences with the Administration and provide a clear alternative and finally Dean also reenergized the demoralised Democratic activists and got them highly charged for the coming general election…

So what is you analysis of Dean’s impact on the Race? and what could be his potential impact in the future? Any Thoughts?        

Please, the Democrats are just as angry, if not more angry, now that they have Kerry.  They just don't have the guts that Dean has to express as much it anymore, because they could see that it wouldn't win an election.

I think if Dean was not in the race, the democrat would have been beaten pretty bad in November. Dean's message is lets be tough on the republicans and lets catch him on his contributions. His message has been copied by Kerry. I'm really disapointed Kerry  made it, because his type wins every time. As a young secular New England rebel- Dean has represented me. I hope the party makes him into royalty.

Makes him into Royalty?  Kerry, allowing that to happen with Dean?  Not a chance.  Kerry is Mr Insider and wants no part of Dean, as he is essentially the anti-dean.  

Like it or not Dean has a role to play in the Dem party.

He has a mailing list of 600k, many of which are also contributors.

Dean's impact is that he made Kerry a better candidate. This was always Kerry's year (as long as Clinton and Gore stayed out). The Dean surge clued the other candidates into the deep anger within the party and forced them change their tone. Kerry regrouped, change managers, changed strategy and came out of Iowa a much better candidate than he had been before.


but the fall of Dean is due to both the improvement in theother candidates and his own missteps (and not a vast left wing right wing cnn conspiracy as the Deaniacs would have you believe)

...my hope is that the Dean people will be able to make the transition and not transfer their anger to Kerry and jump on the Nader bandwagon because Kerry denied them their divine right to the nomination.

        I was brought to the Dean camp for months when I heard him speak angrily about the democratic party becoming Bush-lite, and as a result losing the midterm election. Kerry was Bush-lite on his vote on the war resolution and I do hate what he did. Surprisingly, Dean saved Terry McAulife's career by becoming angry at Bush.

I hope Kerry doesn't become Bush-like. It was the lack of contrast that kileed Gore.

Yes lets PLEASEEEEEEEEEEEEEE save McAullifes's job.  Best thing that ever happened to RNC!

I agree, the man has to be the most ineffective DNC chairman in history.

Until recently McAuliffe was a weak spokesman. Dean's hatred against McAuliffe taught him how to do his job. Gillespie is only equally as harsh.

Nobody said there was a vast conspiracy here... just that the media overplayed the story of Dean's rally and actually distorted it beyond what it was. Even CNN came out and said it overplayed the speech and apologized. Observers in the room did not feel anything out of place or wrong with Dean's speech because that was what the atmosphere in the room was, and after his "scream" he recieved huge cheers and applause. But none of the context was captured on TV. The media took it out of context, went and played the most egregious part 600 times in 1 week, and made fun of him left and right. Sure, Dean should have realized this, that the media only cares about entertainment, and he should have been more careful. But this is still another example of the problems in the media. Not that it caused Dean's fall, he was already out in Iowa, but it contributed to it.

I still think McAuliffe made yet another mistake by frontloading the primaries like he did. Kerry is not going to come out of this primary season as a candidate who has really be scrutinized and challenged, or really practiced his campaigning on a national scale. The guy doesn't even have to campaign... he just rides this 800 ton locomentum straight into the general election, at which time he will start to face serious attacks for the first time ever. This also means fewer ideas are really exchanged (I would have liked to see Lieberman develop his campaign more) and Bush gets to start campaigning earlier.

I read that Economist article as well, it was interesting, and I think there's somethng to it.

So did I :) the Economist can be quite sensible sometimes.

Firstly lets not forget that the Dean speech was after he came in a dissapointing 3rd place in Iowa.

Plus, the Speech seemed to confirm the underlying worry that many had about Gov. Dean and that is he a bit unstable.

...I am sorry, Dean sunk himself, and the speech was just one nail in a coffin he had already made for himself.

...but if you read the Dean forums everyone there blames everything for 'stealing' the election. They have accused the Democratic party of rigging caucauses, of a vast consipiracy involving the meida and the DLC and DNC and even the RNC. They seem to feel that the nomination was his divine right, and refuse to even entertain that Dean has any responsibility for not getting it.

Dean destroyed Dean.

First, he got cocky.  He stopped campaigning in Iowa while Kerry, Gephardt, and Edwards were going all out.  This caused him to finish a pathetic 3rd in a state where he had a commanding lead.

Second, he gave THE speech.  There's nothing really bad about that speech until the end of it ... when he yells "ahhh".  Enthusiasm is good.  High pitched weird yells are bad.

Third, he fired his campaign manager.  He should have learned from the Kerry campaign.  That almost killed the Kerry camp, and it certainly sent the Dean camp into a tailspin.

Fourth, the story broke that his campaign was running low on cash.  This after we had heard for months how much money they were raising.  Naturally this made party members nervous about his ability to stretch money throughout the long Presidential campaign.

Fifth, he announced he HAD to win Wisconsin to continue, that he needed money from his supporters to win it, but when poll #'s seemed to indicate he would lose Wisconsin he backed away from that stand.

No one did any of these things to Dean.  Dean did them to himself.  He self-destructed.

It's great! :)

I agree.

Kerry has not been scrutinized at all. The average Democrat has been bouncing from candidate to candidate like a rubber ball, with not a clue as to the history of these people - Dean, Clark, Edwards, Kerry - America doesn't have a grip on what any of them would be like as President. The hurried, unfounded determination at this point is that Dean is not "electable" and Kerry might be.

As the general election draws near, the 20-30% of voters in the middle are going to have to have a sense of comfort with the man they want to be in charge for the next four years. Kerry has not even approached scratching the surface with them.

I heard his campaign manager say live on TV that this will last another week or two for Dean.

McAuliffe has already said he's stepping down in 2005 regardless.

Thank god that McAulliffe's going.  But who shoudl replace him?  President clinton?

No, Donna Brazile.

Is that your genuine opinion NHpolitico or is it a clever scheme by you dastardly republicans…coz I’ve thought of Donna Brazil but then again how about James Carville? Just some thoughts… in large part who gets appointed will come down to how confident the Dem high command is about November…    

No, not serpenthead. Donna. Go with Donna. I'm not using reverse psychology.  If you want to upgrade in a big way from Terry, go with Donna.

Yeah, sure... didn't she manage Al Gore's 2000 campaign? :(

I don't like James Carville that much except that he can appear on non-politics show like Late Night with Conan O'Brien. I can't stand his accent though.

He does get annoying, I like Begala and Carlson better.  I hate Novak.

Novak will not say anything good about any democrat except for Kucinich and Sharpton to promote his idea of extremism. But I think he is effective if you are a right-winger.