Talk Elections

I'm inclined to go with New Hampshire at the moment, under 0.50%.

NH

Yep, NH.

PA. I think NH will soon become a nice leftward drift from now through november. A lot will depend on what happens of course. PA is a state divided right now, we will see how it pans out.

Since I expect this to be a big year for Democrats, I'll say MO.

Michigan, by my estimates ( average of polls from last 6-8 weeks), is the closest state.

Missouri seems to be far into the republican side, about 10%.  New Hampshire I think will be somewhat close, but that's a big McCain state and I think winnable by a moderate Republican.  New Hampshire is what put McCain back into the race to begin with.  New Hampshire was also won by bush in 2000.

PA and with the number of electoral votes it has....it's a bigger deal than NH.

Definitely NH

New Hampshire is probably the smartest and safest guess.

But you know me.  I'm gonna say Nevada. 

Either Nevada or Colorado, I think

By percent, it might be PA or MI.

Reminds me of the "Great Westmoreland County Recount of 1983."

Nevada.

I'll be optimistic and say Virginia (yes I'm hoping for rapid economic collapse by November).

If Virginia is the closest state, then Obama wins in a landslide.

I'll go out on a limb here and say New Mexico, both because of its recent history of extremely close presidential contests, as well because both candidates play very well here.

Closest GOP wins:
NH, PA, NJ, MI

Closest Dem Wins:
OH, IA

PA, NV, OH, NM and NH.

Missouri

I'm gonna say Missouri.  Most people have it as a toss-up McCain or a lean McCain state.  I actually think it is a pure toss-up with only a very, very small tilt to McCain.  Obama can easily win this state.

I can see why people would say Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico.

I'm gonna say Nevada, with McCain getting a slight edge.

I can't believe so many people are saying NH.  I really don't see it being all that close in the end.  Obama takes it by at least 5 in a close race, it's just too anti-war right now for McCain to do that well. 

I'll say Ohio.  I think it's going to be extremely tight in the end, within a point. 

Virginia

As far as the people suggesting NH.  I just don't see it.   It helped get McCain on track and the state has been McCain friendly, but I just don't see anyway the state is that close.  It has moved quite a bit to the left and it is an extremely anti was state.  It was the single worst state in the country for the GOP in 06 with losing the two house seats and a whole ton of state house & Senate seats, and the Senate seat is a sure pickup for the dems this year.

Really?  Not Oklahoma?

I will say Nevada.

Close call between New Hampshire and Nevada (I picked Nevada), and others seem to agree. But Pennsylvania might be. I don't have a good handle on that state at present.

Haven't you been reading?  I've given up on the idea of Oklahoma being a swing state this year.  I still think Obama will do better than expected (maybe high 30s or 40%), but will still get crushed here.  I'm thinking the McCain/Obama numbers to be close to 2000.  In that election, Bush beat Gore 60-38.  I think it will be very similar this year.  It could also be another 1988 where Bush beat Dukakis 58-41, but no closer.

But wasn't part of the Oklahoma results because Lloyd Bentsen was on the ticket? I seem to also recall that possibly helping Dukakis in Louisiana as well...

Missouri will be the closest state, by far.

nevada, that was my vote.

Ohio 2nd.

Ohio, Colorado, then Nevada - followed by Virginia and Missouri. NH will be 3-5% for Obama.

I think if Missouri is the closest state, then Obama will win comfortably.

Kentucky

You're even more pessimistic than I am.

Please, please let that be true.

I'll be optimistic and Say Missouri. I'm guessing that Obama will win by around 1500 votes.

I also expect Nevada, Virginia, and Ohio to all be decided by less than 1% FWIW.

The Old Dominion

It's starting to look like Virginia; it goes Obama by about 10,000 votes.

So far, Nevada is the winner with 15 votes. Missouri is 3rd with 8 votes, and I agree with benconstine in his statement. New Hampshire, however, is 2nd with 10 votes. If this is the case, I have to say McCain would have the advantage nationally.

What about Louisiana?

I'm sure the black vote will rise in November significantly, so it couldn't LA be pretty close, too? At least Clinton carried Louisiana by 12 pionts in 1996.

That's ridiculous. Obama will struggle to get 20% of the White Vote in LA. Allthough he will get 95% of African-Americans, their share will be no higher than 32%, with 30% most likely. That means, in the best case scenario, 44-45% in LA will vote for Obama.

Ohio

LOL

     Agreed. I figure McCain has a cieling of 47% in New Hampshire given his support of the troop surge.

I get the feeling it may be VA.  I hope it isn't, because if it looks like it will be that means we'll be deluged with TV ads, phone calls, and polls from Labor Day until early November. 

But I get a feeling it'll be VA. 

Nah.

Consider yourself lucky.  We'll get very little attention in Alabama.

We couldn't tell from the number of polls released.