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Title: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on May 23, 2008, 04:09:06 PM Here's a list of what the current accumulated predictions are, with those states that would require a change in less than 5% (40) of the current 804 predictions to alter the cumulative wisdom. Of the 9 states that can have their prediction most easily changed, 4 changes are pro-D and 5 are pro-R. Only 2 of those changes would affect the line graphs, those of FL and MI, and both are pro-D. No easy changes would affect the EV totals.
I intend to make updates at regular intervals. How easy I deem a change to be is here based solely on how many predictions would need to revised to cause a change. No inference is being made or should be assumed as to how probable a change is. This list is being offered solely so that interested persons have an idea as to which states need watching for possible changes. AL: R 60% Strong AK: R 60% Strong AR: R 50% Lean AZ: R 50% Strong CA: D 50% Strong (22 changes can shift to D Lean) CO: D 40% Tossup (15 changes can shift to D 50%) CT: D 50% Strong DC: D 80% Strong DE: D 50% Lean FL: R 50% Tossup (21 changes can shift to R Lean) GA: R 50% Strong HI: D 50% Lean (10 changes can shift to D Strong) IA: D 40% Tossup ID: R 60% Strong IL: D 50% Strong IN: R 50% Strong KS: R 60% Strong KY: R 50% Strong LA: R 50% Strong MA: D 60% Strong MD: D 50% Strong ME: D 50% Lean MO: R 50% Tossup (33 changes can shift to R 40%) MI: D 50% Lean (12 changes can shift to D Tossup) MS: R 50% Strong MN: D 50% Lean MT: R 50% Strong NC: R 50% Strong ND: R 60% Strong NE: R 60% Strong NH: D 50% Tossup NJ: D 50% Lean NM: D 40% Tossup NV: D 40% Tossup (37 changes can shift to D 30%) NY: D 50% Strong OK: R 60% Strong OH: D 50% Tossup (10 changes can shift to D 40%) OR: D 50% Lean PA: D 50% Tossup RI: D 50% Strong SC: R 50% Strong SD: R 50% Strong TN: R 50% Strong TX: R 60% Strong UT: R 70% Strong VA: R 50% Tossup (39 changes can shift to R 40%) VT: D 50% Strong WA: D 50% Lean WI: D 40% Tossup WV: R 50% Lean WY: R 60% Strong Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on May 24, 2008, 01:16:27 PM We have 3 new predictions since yesterday, plus some changes. With a total of 807 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change is still 40.
Here are the easy changes. I'm tempted to think I missed WV yesterday, because otherwise, it has shifted more than any other State since yesterday. None of these changes were made more difficult, and overall, the net effect was favorable to the Republicans. CA: D 50% Strong (22 changes can shift to D Lean) [unchanged] CO: D 40% Tossup (12 changes can shift to D 50%) [-3 changes needed] FL: R 50% Tossup (19 changes can shift to R Lean) [-2 changes needed] HI: D 50% Lean (10 changes can shift to D Strong) [unchanged] MO: R 50% Tossup (33 changes can shift to R 40%) [unchanged] MI: D 50% Lean (7 changes can shift to D Tossup) [-5 changes needed] NV: D 40% Tossup (34 changes can shift to D 30%) [-3 changes needed] OH: D 50% Tossup (10 changes can shift to D 40%) [unchanged] VA: R 50% Tossup (36 changes can shift to R 40%) [-3 changes needed] WV: R 50% Lean (33 changes can shift to R Strong) [new] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on May 25, 2008, 05:58:05 PM We have 1 new prediction since yesterday, plus some changes. With a total of 808 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change is still 40.
Here are the easy changes. The margin changed on 7 of these today, all in favor of the Republicans CA: D 50% Strong (22 changes can shift to D Lean) [unchanged] CO: D 40% Tossup (14 changes can shift to D 50%) [+2 changes needed] FL: R 50% Tossup (15 changes can shift to R Lean) [-4 changes needed] HI: D 50% Lean (10 changes can shift to D Strong) [unchanged] MO: R 50% Tossup (37 changes can shift to R 40%) [+4 changes needed] MI: D 50% Lean (7 changes can shift to D Tossup) [unchanged] NV: D 40% Tossup (33 changes can shift to D 30%) [-1 change needed] OH: D 50% Tossup ( 8 changes can shift to D 40%) [-2 changes needed] VA: R 50% Tossup (39 changes can shift to R 40%) [+3 changes needed] WV: R 50% Lean (31 changes can shift to R Strong) [-2 changes needed] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on May 26, 2008, 02:58:33 PM We have 1 new prediction since yesterday, plus some changes. With a total of 809 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change is still 40.
Here are the easy changes. For the most part, the revisions in predictions favored the Democrats, including the addition of a new easy change: Pennsylvania from D Tossup to D Lean. Like the ones for Florida and Michigan, if made, this change will affect the line graph of the Aggregate Prediction History that gets automatically computed. CA: D 50% Strong (23 changes can shift to D Lean) [+1 change needed] CO: D 40% Tossup (15 changes can shift to D 50%) [+1 change needed] FL: R 50% Tossup (15 changes can shift to R Lean) [unchanged] HI: D 50% Lean ( 9 changes can shift to D Strong) [-1 change needed] MO: R 50% Tossup (36 changes can shift to R 40%) [-1 change needed] MI: D 50% Lean ( 5 changes can shift to D Tossup) [-2 changes needed] NV: D 40% Tossup (34 changes can shift to D 30%) [+1 change needed] PA: D 50% Tossup (37 changes can shift to D Lean) [new] OH: D 50% Tossup ( 7 changes can shift to D 40%) [-1 change needed] VA: R 50% Tossup (37 changes can shift to R 40%) [-2 changes needed] WV: R 50% Lean (31 changes can shift to R Strong) [unchanged] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on May 29, 2008, 05:34:09 PM We have 10 new prediction since Monday (three days ago), plus some changes. With a total of 819 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change is still 40.
Here are the easy changes. The revisions in predictions slightly favored the Republicans. CA: D 50% Strong (25 changes can shift to D Lean) [+2 changes needed] CO: D 40% Tossup (10 changes can shift to D 50%) [-5 changes needed] FL: R 50% Tossup (15 changes can shift to R Lean) [unchanged] HI: D 50% Lean ( 7 changes can shift to D Strong) [-2 changes needed] MO: R 50% Tossup (36 changes can shift to R 40%) [unchanged] MI: D 50% Lean ( 3 changes can shift to D Tossup) [-2 changes needed] NV: D 40% Tossup (32 changes can shift to D 30%) [-2 change needed] PA: D 50% Tossup (38 changes can shift to D Lean) [+1 change needed] OH: D 50% Tossup ( 4 changes can shift to D 40%) [-3 changes needed] VA: R 50% Tossup (40 changes can shift to R 40%) [+3 changes needed] WV: R 50% Lean (26 changes can shift to R Strong) [-5 changes needed] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on May 30, 2008, 04:01:46 PM We have 6 new predictions since yesterday, plus some changes. With a total of 825 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change increases by 1 to 41.
Here are the easy changes. Note that by my hand tally, Michigan should already be in D Tossup, but if the 5 predictions of an independent victory aren't considered in deciding what goes on the map, then 2 or 3 more changes are needed. CA: D 50% Strong (26 changes can shift to D Lean) [+1 change needed] CO: D 40% Tossup ( 8 changes can shift to D 50%) [-2 changes needed] FL: R 50% Tossup (10 changes can shift to R Lean) [-5 changes needed] HI: D 50% Lean ( 8 changes can shift to D Strong) [+1 change needed] MO: R 50% Tossup (39 changes can shift to R 40%) [+3 changes needed] MI: D 50% Lean (-1 changes can shift to D Tossup) [-4 changes needed] NV: D 40% Tossup (32 changes can shift to D 30%) [unchanged] PA: D 50% Tossup (39 changes can shift to D Lean) [+1 change needed] OH: D 50% Tossup ( 3 changes can shift to D 40%) [-1 change needed] VA: R 50% Tossup (40 changes can shift to R 40%) [unchanged] WV: R 50% Lean (24 changes can shift to R Strong) [-2 changes needed] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on May 31, 2008, 07:07:24 PM We have 1 new prediction since yesterday, plus some changes. With a total of 826 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent is 41.
I'm rebalancing the numbers needed for a change to ignore independent predictions, which will make calculations slightly more complex, but match the automatic results better. Here are the easy changes. Because of the rebalancing, comparisons to last time are not given, save in California, which has no predictions of an Independent victory. CA: D 50% Strong (29 changes can shift to D Lean) [+3 changes needed] CO: D 40% Tossup ( 3 changes can shift to D 50%) FL: R 50% Tossup ( 9 changes can shift to R Lean) HI: D 50% Lean ( 7 changes can shift to D Strong) MO: R 50% Tossup (38 changes can shift to R 40%) MI: D 50% Lean ( 1 change can shift to D Tossup) NV: D 40% Tossup (36 changes can shift to D 30%) PA: D 50% Tossup (34 changes can shift to D Lean) OH: D 50% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to D 40%) VA: R 50% Tossup (39 changes can shift to R 40%) WV: R 50% Lean (23 changes can shift to R Strong) Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: auburntiger on June 01, 2008, 10:21:31 PM I noticed MI just went from lean-D to tossup, and CO went to D>50%. I'm curious as how you delegate each state (R>40, or D>50) based on predictions. Is it a certain number? Could you elaborate on that?
Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 02, 2008, 02:15:38 PM We have 2 new predictions since Saturday (two days ago). With a total of 828 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains at 41.
Here are the easy changes. Colorado has changed from D 40% to D 50% and Michigan from D Lean to D Tossup since the last time I did this summary, so now I get to start listing how many changes going the other direction are needed to flip them back. CA: D 50% Strong (30 changes can shift to D Lean) [+1 change needed] CO: D 50% Tossup ( 4 changes can shift to D 40%) [+6 changes needed] FL: R 50% Tossup ( 8 changes can shift to R Lean) [-1 change needed] HI: D 50% Lean ( 7 changes can shift to D Strong) [unchanged] MO: R 50% Tossup (41 changes can shift to R 40%) [+3 changes needed] MI: D 50% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to D Lean) [+6 changes needed] NV: D 40% Tossup (34 changes can shift to D 30%) [-2 changes needed] PA: D 50% Tossup (38 changes can shift to D Lean) [+4 changes needed] OH: D 50% Tossup ( 7 changes can shift to D 40%) [+1 change needed] VA: R 50% Tossup (41 changes can shift to R 40%) [+2 changes needed] WV: R 50% Lean (17 changes can shift to R Strong) [-6 changes needed] To answer auburntiger's question: I can't swear this is how Dave is doing it, but it's the system I'm using, and it seems to match the automatically generated results. 1. Total the number of predictions for R, D, and I for each state. The one with the most predictions gets the state, with a tie going to what won prior to the new or changed prediction. 2. Now to determine where the predicted margin of victory is, total the number of prediction for the first and second place finishers in each state and divide by half to get the target number for that state. 3. If the number of Strong predictions for that party is greater than the target number, the overall prediction is Strong. If the overall prediction is not Strong then if the number of Strong ad Lean predictions is greater than the target number, the overall prediction is Lean, otherwise it is Tossup. 4. For the percentage, it is the highest percentage for which the number of predictions for that party at that percentage or higher is greater than the target number. Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 03, 2008, 03:55:10 PM We have 2 new predictions since yesterday. With a total of 830 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains at 41.
Here are the easy changes. Slight improvement for the Democrats, but hardly more than noise. CA: D 50% Strong (30 changes can shift to D Lean) [unchanged] CO: D 50% Tossup ( 3 changes can shift to D 40%) [-1 change needed] FL: R 50% Tossup (10 changes can shift to R Lean) [+2 changes needed] HI: D 50% Lean ( 6 changes can shift to D Strong) [-1 change needed] MO: R 50% Tossup (40 changes can shift to R 40%) [-1 change needed] MI: D 50% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to D Lean) [unchanged] NV: D 40% Tossup (36 changes can shift to D 30%) [+2 changes needed] PA: D 50% Tossup (39 changes can shift to D Lean) [+1 change needed] OH: D 50% Tossup ( 7 changes can shift to D 40%) [unchanged] VA: R 50% Tossup (40 changes can shift to R 40%) [-1 change needed] WV: R 50% Lean (17 changes can shift to R Strong) [unchanged] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 04, 2008, 03:36:03 PM We have 4 new predictions since yesterday. With a total of 834 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains at 41.
Here are the easy changes. Slight improvement for the Republicans. Nevada is getting close enough I may start adding how many changes it would take for the shifts to R 30% and R 40% to the list. Predictions at the 30% level are thin, and deservedly so, as they require a a strong third party effort to get at least 20% to achieve. However that means those levels can be quickly swept through if a State flips from one party to another and that listing those numbers doesn't add much info. CA: D 50% Strong (29 changes can shift to D Lean) [-1 change needed] CO: D 50% Tossup ( 7 changes can shift to D 40%) [+4 changes needed] FL: R 50% Tossup (10 changes can shift to R Lean) [unchanged] HI: D 50% Lean ( 2 changes can shift to D Strong) [-4 changes needed] MO: R 50% Tossup (39 changes can shift to R 40%) [-1 change needed] MI: D 50% Tossup ( 8 changes can shift to D Lean) [+2 changes needed] NV: D 40% Tossup (29 changes can shift to D 30%) [-7 changes needed] PA: D 50% Tossup (39 changes can shift to D Lean) [unchanged] OH: D 50% Tossup ( 5 changes can shift to D 40%) [-2 changes needed] VA: R 50% Tossup (40 changes can shift to R 40%) [unchanged] WV: R 50% Lean (14 changes can shift to R Strong) [-3 changes needed] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 07, 2008, 02:27:19 PM We have 9 new predictions since Wednesday (3 days ago). With a total of 843 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent has increased by 1 to 42.
I've decided to indicate the changes that affect the line graph with yellow highlighting instead of bold text, as with the constant width font I'm using, bold type isn't that different from roman type. Here are the easy changes. Hawaii has switched since the last summary from D Lean to D Strong. Pennsylvania going from D Tossup to D Lean is no longer within the range of an easy change as it will take 43 changes to make that happen now. Overall, the revisions were about equal, but in terms of those with the potential to change the line graph, the Republicans clearly had the benefit. With PA no longer on the list I decided to bite the bullet and add the two lines for Nevada. CA: D 50% Strong (31 changes can shift to D Lean) [+2 changes needed] CO: D 50% Tossup (13 changes can shift to D 40%) [+6 changes needed] FL: R 50% Tossup ( 3 changes can shift to R Lean) [-7 changes needed] HI: D 50% Lean ( 2 changes can shift to D Lean) [+3 changes needed] MO: R 50% Tossup (28 changes can shift to R 40%) [-11 changes needed] MI: D 50% Tossup (13 changes can shift to D Lean) [+5 changes needed] NV: D 40% Tossup (28 changes can shift to D 30%) [-1 change needed] NV: D 40% Tossup (30 changes can shift to R 30%) [new substat] NV: D 40% Tossup (31 changes can shift to R 40%) [new substat] OH: D 50% Tossup ( 2 changes can shift to D 40%) [-3 changes needed] VA: R 50% Tossup (37 changes can shift to R 40%) [-3 changes needed] WV: R 50% Lean ( 8 changes can shift to R Strong) [-6 changes needed] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: auburntiger on June 08, 2008, 02:01:39 PM Yay for Florida becoming R-Lean!
Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 08, 2008, 07:56:18 PM We have 4 new predictions since yesterday. With a total of 847 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains at 42.
Here are the easy changes. Florida flipped from R Tossup to R Lean, but a change in only prediction would be enough to make it flip back. After a 1 day absence, the change from in Pennsylvania from D Tossup to D Lean is back on the list. Overall the past day has been good for the Republicans, but I've noted that Sunday usually is good for them. CA: D 50% Strong (33 changes can shift to D Lean) [+2 changes needed] CO: D 50% Tossup (13 changes can shift to D 40%) [unchanged] FL: R 50% Lean ( 1 change can shift to R Tossup) [+3 changes needed] HI: D 50% Lean ( 5 changes can shift to D Lean) [+3 changes needed] MI: D 50% Tossup (15 changes can shift to D Lean) [+2 changes needed] MO: R 50% Tossup (28 changes can shift to R 40%) [unchanged] NV: D 40% Tossup (28 changes can shift to D 30%) [unchanged] NV: D 40% Tossup (30 changes can shift to R 30%) [unchanged] NV: D 40% Tossup (31 changes can shift to R 40%) [unchanged] OH: D 50% Tossup ( 1 change can shift to D 40%) [-4 changes needed] PA: D 50% Tossup (42 changes can shift to D Lean) [-1 change needed] VA: R 50% Tossup (36 changes can shift to R 40%) [-1 change needed] WV: R 50% Lean ( 1 change can shift to R Strong) [-7 changes needed] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 09, 2008, 06:52:17 PM We have 1 new prediction since yesterday. With a total of 848 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains at 42.
Here are the easy changes. West Virginia has shifted from R Lean to R Strong. The pattern of the changes leads me to believe that most activity is by people who had been predicting Clinton would be the nominee and are updating their maps to reflect Obama as the nominee. CA: D 50% Strong (35 changes can shift to D Lean) [+2 changes needed] CO: D 50% Tossup (15 changes can shift to D 40%) [+2 changes needed] FL: R 50% Lean ( 9 changes can shift to R Tossup) [+8 changes needed] HI: D 50% Lean ( 6 changes can shift to D Lean) [+1 change needed] MI: D 50% Tossup (10 changes can shift to D Lean) [-5 changes needed] MO: R 50% Tossup (26 changes can shift to R 40%) [-2 changes needed] NV: D 40% Tossup (19 changes can shift to D 30%) [-9 changes needed] NV: D 40% Tossup (21 changes can shift to R 30%) [-9 changes needed] NV: D 40% Tossup (22 changes can shift to R 40%) [-9 changes needed] OH: D 50% Tossup ( 2 changes can shift to D 40%) [+1 change needed] PA: D 50% Tossup (41 changes can shift to D Lean) [-1 change needed] VA: R 50% Tossup (37 changes can shift to R 40%) [+1 change needed] WV: R 50% Strong ( 4 changes can shift to R Lean) [+4 changes needed] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 10, 2008, 09:38:33 PM We have 3 new predictions since yesterday. With a total of 851 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains at 42.
Here are the easy changes. Ohio flipped from D 50% to D 40%. Michigan saw a flurry of changes for some reason. CA: D 50% Strong (35 changes can shift to D Lean) [unchanged] CO: D 50% Tossup (14 changes can shift to D 40%) [-1 change needed] FL: R 50% Lean (10 change can shift to R Tossup) [+1 change needed] HI: D 50% Lean ( 6 changes can shift to D Lean) [unchanged] MI: D 50% Tossup (23 changes can shift to D Lean) [+13 changes needed] MO: R 50% Tossup (24 changes can shift to R 40%) [-2 changes needed] NV: D 40% Tossup (18 changes can shift to D 30%) [-1 change needed] NV: D 40% Tossup (20 changes can shift to R 30%) [-1 change needed] NV: D 40% Tossup (22 changes can shift to R 40%) [unchanged] OH: D 40% Tossup ( 1 change can shift to D 50%) [+2 changes needed] PA: D 50% Tossup (42 changes can shift to D Lean) [+1 change needed] VA: R 50% Tossup (36 changes can shift to R 40%) [-1 change needed] WV: R 50% Strong ( 6 changes can shift to R Lean) [+2 changes needed] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 11, 2008, 10:54:40 PM We have 8 new predictions since yesterday. With a total of 859 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains at 42.
Here are the easy shifts. Michigan and Pennsylvania saw the most change in the collective wisdon today, but in opposite directions. CA: D 50% Strong (37 changes can shift to D Lean) [+2 changes needed] CO: D 50% Tossup (17 changes can shift to D 40%) [+3 changes needed] FL: R 50% Lean (13 changes can shift to R Tossup) [+3 changes needed] HI: D 50% Lean ( 8 changes can shift to D Lean) [+2 changes needed] MI: D 50% Tossup (33 changes can shift to D Lean) [+10 changes needed] MO: R 50% Tossup (23 changes can shift to R 40%) [-1 change needed] NV: D 40% Tossup (15 changes can shift to D 30%) [-3 changes needed] NV: D 40% Tossup (17 changes can shift to R 30%) [-3 changes needed] NV: D 40% Tossup (19 changes can shift to R 40%) [-3 changes needed] OH: D 40% Tossup ( 1 change can shift to D 50%) [unchanged] PA: D 50% Tossup (36 changes can shift to D Lean) [-6 changes needed] VA: R 50% Tossup (35 changes can shift to R 40%) [-1 change needed] WV: R 50% Strong ( 8 changes can shift to R Lean) [+2 changes needed] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 12, 2008, 10:58:15 PM No new predictors since yesterday, just people changing their existing predictions. With a total of 859 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains at 42.
Here are the easy shifts. Slight trend to the Democrats, but not much activity of any sort today. CA: D 50% Strong (38 changes can shift to D Lean) [+1 changes needed] CO: D 50% Tossup (21 changes can shift to D 40%) [+4 changes needed] FL: R 50% Lean (12 changes can shift to R Tossup) [-1 change needed] HI: D 50% Lean ( 9 changes can shift to D Lean) [+1 change needed] MI: D 50% Tossup (32 changes can shift to D Lean) [-1 change needed] MO: R 50% Tossup (21 changes can shift to R 40%) [-2 changes needed] NV: D 40% Tossup (15 changes can shift to D 30%) [unchanged] NV: D 40% Tossup (16 changes can shift to R 30%) [-1 change needed] NV: D 40% Tossup (17 changes can shift to R 40%) [-2 changes needed] OH: D 40% Tossup ( 1 change can shift to D 50%) [unchanged] PA: D 50% Tossup (36 changes can shift to D Lean) [unchanged] VA: R 50% Tossup (35 changes can shift to R 40%) [unchanged] WV: R 50% Strong ( 9 changes can shift to R Lean) [+1 change needed] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 13, 2008, 07:10:45 PM 2 new predictors since yesterday, With a total of 861 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent increases by 1 to 43.
Here are the easy shifts. I'll leave analysis to Tim Russert today. CA: D 50% Strong (38 changes can shift to D Lean) [unchanged] CO: D 50% Tossup (22 changes can shift to D 40%) [+1 change needed] FL: R 50% Lean (14 changes can shift to R Tossup) [+2 changes needed] HI: D 50% Lean (10 changes can shift to D Lean) [+1 change needed] MI: D 50% Tossup (36 changes can shift to D Lean) [+4 changes needed] MO: R 50% Tossup (19 changes can shift to R 40%) [-2 changes needed] NV: D 40% Tossup (11 changes can shift to D 30%) [-4 changes needed] NV: D 40% Tossup (12 changes can shift to R 30%) [-4 changes needed] NV: D 40% Tossup (13 changes can shift to R 40%) [-4 changes needed] OH: D 40% Tossup ( 1 change can shift to D 50%) [unchanged] PA: D 50% Tossup (39 changes can shift to D Lean) [+3 changes needed] VA: R 50% Tossup (33 changes can shift to R 40%) [-2 changes needed] WV: R 50% Strong (10 changes can shift to R Lean) [+1 change needed] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: Josh/Devilman88 on June 13, 2008, 10:27:02 PM I have a question. How many changes would it take until NC moves to lean McCain.
Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 14, 2008, 01:52:41 PM I have a question. How many changes would it take until NC moves to lean McCain. At the moment, it would take 59 changed predictions to shift NC from R Strong to R Lean. I keep an eye out for States like NC that have a 5 to10% margin to see if they need adding to the list, but I don't bother keeping track of the exact margin each day due to time. The full list of those waiting in the wings right now is: DE: D 50% Lean (55 changes to D Strong) IA: D 40% Tossup (62 changes to D 50%) NC: R 50% Strong (59 changes to R Lean) OH: D 40% Tossup (82 changes to D 30%) TX: R 60% Strong (66 changes to R 50%) Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: Josh/Devilman88 on June 14, 2008, 03:45:54 PM I have a question. How many changes would it take until NC moves to lean McCain. At the moment, it would take 59 changed predictions to shift NC from R Strong to R Lean. I keep an eye out for States like NC that have a 5 to10% margin to see if they need adding to the list, but I don't bother keeping track of the exact margin each day due to time. The full list of those waiting in the wings right now is: DE: D 50% Lean (55 changes to D Strong) IA: D 40% Tossup (62 changes to D 50%) NC: R 50% Strong (59 changes to R Lean) OH: D 40% Tossup (82 changes to D 30%) TX: R 60% Strong (66 changes to R 50%) Thanks, nice work. Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: auburntiger on June 15, 2008, 10:06:59 AM Wow! Nevada is getting VERY close to flipping!
Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 15, 2008, 06:45:25 PM 3 new predictors since Friday (2 days ago). With a total of 864 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 43.
Here are the easy shifts. Slight advantage to the Dems, but other than Flordia, nothing that can be categorized as more than statistical noise. CA: D 50% Strong (37 changes can shift to D Lean) [-1 change needed] CO: D 50% Tossup (23 changes can shift to D 40%) [+1 change needed] FL: R 50% Lean ( 9 changes can shift to R Tossup) [-5 changes needed] HI: D 50% Lean ( 9 changes can shift to D Lean) [-1 change needed] MI: D 50% Tossup (36 changes can shift to D Lean) [unchanged] MO: R 50% Tossup (19 changes can shift to R 40%) [unchanged] NV: D 40% Tossup ( 9 changes can shift to D 30%) [-2 changes needed] NV: D 40% Tossup (10 changes can shift to R 30%) [-2 changes needed] NV: D 40% Tossup (11 changes can shift to R 40%) [-2 changes needed] OH: D 40% Tossup ( 1 change can shift to D 50%) [unchanged] PA: D 50% Tossup (37 changes can shift to D Lean) [-2 changes needed] VA: R 50% Tossup (31 changes can shift to R 40%) [-2 changes needed] WV: R 50% Strong ( 8 changes can shift to R Lean) [-2 changes needed] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 17, 2008, 03:41:31 PM 6 new predictors since Sunday (2 days ago). With a total of 870 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 43.
Here are the easy shifts. After remaining unchanged the last four times I checked, Ohio finally had a change, and in doing so flipped from D 40% to D 50%. The latest Virginia poll apparently has caused people to be changing their Virginia predictions to be more favorable to Obama. (I was among them, but my change was not to the percentage but rather in my level of confidence from R Lean to R Tossup.) Indeed, overall, the changes to predictions were favorable to Obama, tho perversely, in changes that would affect the bar graph, McCain has a small advantage. CA: D 50% Strong (43 changes can shift to D Lean) [+6 changes needed] CO: D 50% Tossup (26 changes can shift to D 40%) [+3 changes needed] FL: R 50% Lean (12 changes can shift to R Tossup) [+3 changes needed] HI: D 50% Lean (13 changes can shift to D Lean) [+4 changes needed] MI: D 50% Tossup (36 changes can shift to D Lean) [unchanged] MO: R 50% Tossup (21 changes can shift to R 40%) [+2 changes needed] NV: D 40% Tossup ( 8 changes can shift to D 30%) [-1 change needed] NV: D 40% Tossup ( 9 changes can shift to R 30%) [-1 change needed] NV: D 40% Tossup (10 changes can shift to R 40%) [-1 change needed] OH: D 50% Tossup ( 5 changes can shift to D 40%) [+5 changes needed] PA: D 50% Tossup (35 changes can shift to D Lean) [-2 changes needed] VA: R 50% Tossup (21 changes can shift to R 40%) [-10 changes needed] WV: R 50% Strong (12 changes can shift to R Lean) [+4 changes needed] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 18, 2008, 01:26:59 PM 2 new predictors since yesterday. With a total of 872 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 43.
Here are the easy shifts. California's shift from D Strong to D Lean now takes 46 changes to make it happen, so it will depart this list for now. Definite change in favor of Obama today save for Nevada. CO: D 50% Tossup (31 changes can shift to D 40%) [+5 changes needed] FL: R 50% Lean ( 3 changes can shift to R Tossup) [-9 changes needed] HI: D 50% Lean (14 changes can shift to D Lean) [+1 change needed] MI: D 50% Tossup (35 changes can shift to D Lean) [-1 change needed] MO: R 50% Tossup (16 changes can shift to R 40%) [-5 changes needed] NV: D 40% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to D 30%) [-2 changes needed] NV: D 40% Tossup ( 7 changes can shift to R 30%) [-2 changes needed] NV: D 40% Tossup ( 8 changes can shift to R 40%) [-2 changes needed] OH: D 50% Tossup ( 9 changes can shift to D 40%) [+4 changes needed] PA: D 50% Tossup (31 changes can shift to D Lean) [-4 changes needed] VA: R 50% Tossup (18 changes can shift to R 40%) [-3 changes needed] WV: R 50% Strong (12 changes can shift to R Lean) [unchanged] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 19, 2008, 06:21:03 PM 3 new predictors since yesterday. With a total of 875 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 43.
Here are the easy shifts. Florida has shifted in a big way from R Lean to R Tossup. Save for Colorado, all of the tracked shifts are towards Obama, with the three States in Quinnipiac poll all showing hefty prediction changes. CO: D 50% Tossup (28 changes can shift to D 40%) [-3 changes needed] FL: R 50% Tossup (14 changes can shift to R Lean) [+16 changes needed] HI: D 50% Lean (15 changes can shift to D Lean) [+1 change needed] MI: D 50% Tossup (36 changes can shift to D Lean) [+1 change needed] MO: R 50% Tossup (14 changes can shift to R 40%) [-2 changes needed] NV: D 40% Tossup ( 7 changes can shift to D 30%) [+1 change needed] NV: D 40% Tossup ( 8 changes can shift to R 30%) [+1 change needed] NV: D 40% Tossup ( 9 changes can shift to R 40%) [+1 change needed] OH: D 50% Tossup (16 changes can shift to D 40%) [+7 changes needed] PA: D 50% Tossup (23 changes can shift to D Lean) [-8 changes needed] VA: R 50% Tossup (14 changes can shift to R 40%) [-4 changes needed] WV: R 50% Strong ( 8 changes can shift to R Lean) [-4 changes needed] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 20, 2008, 07:22:42 PM 3 new predictors since yesterday. With a total of 878 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 43.
Here are the easy shifts. Looks like just random noise today. CO: D 50% Tossup (27 changes can shift to D 40%) [-1 change needed] FL: R 50% Tossup (15 changes can shift to R Lean) [+1 change needed] HI: D 50% Lean (17 changes can shift to D Lean) [+2 changes needed] MI: D 50% Tossup (37 changes can shift to D Lean) [+1 change needed] MO: R 50% Tossup (13 changes can shift to R 40%) [-1 change needed] NV: D 40% Tossup ( 4 changes can shift to D 30%) [-3 changes needed] NV: D 40% Tossup ( 5 changes can shift to R 30%) [-3 changes needed] NV: D 40% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to R 40%) [-3 changes needed] OH: D 50% Tossup (18 changes can shift to D 40%) [+2 changes needed] PA: D 50% Tossup (20 changes can shift to D Lean) [-3 changes needed] VA: R 50% Tossup (14 changes can shift to R 40%) [unchanged] WV: R 50% Strong (10 changes can shift to R Lean) [+2 changes needed] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 22, 2008, 01:43:53 PM 1 new predictors since Friday. With a total of 879 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 43.
Here are the easy shifts. Not much activity, but not any reason for any either. North Carolina has been creeping towards joining the list and would require only 45 changes at the moment to change to R Lean. CO: D 50% Tossup (31 changes can shift to D 40%) [+4 change needed] FL: R 50% Tossup (15 changes can shift to R Lean) [unchanged] HI: D 50% Lean (18 changes can shift to D Lean) [+1 change needed] MI: D 50% Tossup (39 changes can shift to D Lean) [+2 changes needed] MO: R 50% Tossup (13 changes can shift to R 40%) [unchanged] NV: D 40% Tossup ( 4 changes can shift to D 30%) [unchanged] NV: D 40% Tossup ( 5 changes can shift to R 30%) [unchanged] NV: D 40% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to R 40%) [unchanged] OH: D 50% Tossup (20 changes can shift to D 40%) [+2 changes needed] PA: D 50% Tossup (18 changes can shift to D Lean) [-2 changes needed] VA: R 50% Tossup (13 changes can shift to R 40%) [-1 change needed] WV: R 50% Strong (11 changes can shift to R Lean) [+1 change needed] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 23, 2008, 07:28:45 PM 3 new predictors since yesterday. With a total of 882 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent increases by 1 to 44.
Here are the easy shifts. There is a new shift added to the list today, but it isn't the one I was expecting. Delaware changing from D Lean to D Strong has joined the list. CO: D 50% Tossup (31 changes can shift to D 40%) [unchanged] DE: D 50% Lean (44 changes can shift to D Strong) [new] FL: R 50% Tossup (17 changes can shift to R Lean) [+2 changes needed] HI: D 50% Lean (18 changes can shift to D Lean) [unchanged] MI: D 50% Tossup (41 changes can shift to D Lean) [+2 changes needed] MO: R 50% Tossup (14 changes can shift to R 40%) [+1 change needed] NV: D 40% Tossup ( 3 changes can shift to D 30%) [-1 change needed] NV: D 40% Tossup ( 4 changes can shift to R 30%) [-1 change needed] NV: D 40% Tossup ( 5 changes can shift to R 40%) [-1 change needed] OH: D 50% Tossup (21 changes can shift to D 40%) [+1 changes needed] PA: D 50% Tossup (15 changes can shift to D Lean) [-3 changes needed] VA: R 50% Tossup (14 changes can shift to R 40%) [+1 change needed] WV: R 50% Strong (12 changes can shift to R Lean) [+1 change needed] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: ottermax on June 23, 2008, 10:09:07 PM Can you change Hawaii so that it says it is strong. I think that's what is intended, but it hasn't been changed. Just bugs me. Thanks!
Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 24, 2008, 03:12:16 PM 6 new predictors since yesterday. With a total of 888 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 44.
Here are the easy shifts. North Carolina just barely edged on to the list today and Delaware edged back off it after being on for one day. CO: D 50% Tossup (33 changes can shift to D 40%) [+2 changes needed] FL: R 50% Tossup (16 changes can shift to R Lean) [-1 change needed] HI: D 50% Strong (20 changes can shift to D Lean) [+2 changes needed] MI: D 50% Tossup (39 changes can shift to D Lean) [-2 changes needed] MO: R 50% Tossup (11 changes can shift to R 40%) [-3 changes needed] NC: R 50% Strong (44 changes can shift to R Lean) [-1 change needed] NV: D 40% Tossup ( 3 changes can shift to D 30%) [unchanged] NV: D 40% Tossup ( 4 changes can shift to R 30%) [unchanged] NV: D 40% Tossup ( 5 changes can shift to R 40%) [unchanged] OH: D 50% Tossup (22 changes can shift to D 40%) [+1 changes needed] PA: D 50% Tossup (15 changes can shift to D Lean) [unchanged] VA: R 50% Tossup (14 changes can shift to R 40%) [unchanged] WV: R 50% Strong (13 changes can shift to R Lean) [+1 change needed] Since we're at the top of a new page, I'm also listing the not as easy changes that require a 5 to 10% shift. CA: D 50% Strong (50 changes can shift to D Lean) DE: D 50% Lean (45 changes can shift to D Strong) IA: D 40% Tossup (52 changes can shift to D 50%) MO: R 50% Tossup (75 changes can shift to R 30%) MO: R 50% Tossup (77 changes can shift to D 30%) MO: R 50% Tossup (79 changes can shift to D 40%) TX: R 60% Strong (60 changes can shift to R 50%) WI: D 40% Tossup (79 changes can shift to D 50%) VA: R 50% Tossup (70 changes can shift to R 30%) VA: R 50% Tossup (74 changes can shift to D 30%) VA: R 50% Tossup (75 changes can shift to D 40%) Key: Red text indicates a change in favor of the Democrats Blue text indicates a change in favor of the Republicans Gray text indicates a change that requires a different change to happen first before it can happen. Yellow background indicates a change that would affect Dave's line graph. Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 26, 2008, 08:37:40 PM 5 new predictors since two days ago (Tuesday). With a total of 893 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 44.
Here are the easy shifts. Delaware is back on the list again. Nevada flipped to Republican, but only Dave's rule of ties being broken by the previous result is keeping it from being shown as the tie it truly is at the moment (Last flip on Nevada was Josh22's prediction from R Nevada to D Nevada, thus making that state a tie.) CO: D 50% Tossup (43 changes can shift to D 40%) [+10 changes needed] DE: D 50% Lean (42 changes can shift to D Strong) [3 changes needed] FL: R 50% Tossup (17 changes can shift to R Lean) [+1 change needed] HI: D 50% Strong (22 changes can shift to D Lean) [+2 changes needed] MI: D 50% Tossup (33 changes can shift to D Lean) [-6 changes needed] MO: R 50% Tossup (15 changes can shift to R 40%) [+4 changes needed] NC: R 50% Strong (39 changes can shift to R Lean) [-5 changes needed] NV: R 30% Tossup ( 1 change can shift to D 30%) [+4 changes needed] NV: R 30% Tossup ( 3 changes can shift to D 40%) [+5 changes needed] NV: R 30% Tossup ( 1 change can shift to R 40%) [+4 changes needed] OH: D 50% Tossup (23 changes can shift to D 40%) [+1 changes needed] PA: D 50% Tossup (16 changes can shift to D Lean) [+1 change needed] VA: R 50% Tossup (10 changes can shift to R 40%) [-4 changes needed] WV: R 50% Strong (18 changes can shift to R Lean) [+5 changes needed] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 29, 2008, 07:58:33 PM 3 new predictors since three days ago (Thursday). With a total of 896 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 44.
Here are the easy shifts. Overall the last three days have been favorable to Obama prediction-wise, tho McCain has improved n Missouri. CO: D 50% Tossup (43 changes can shift to D 40%) [unchanged] DE: D 50% Lean (40 changes can shift to D Strong) [-2 changes needed] FL: R 50% Tossup (20 changes can shift to R Lean) [+3 changes needed] HI: D 50% Strong (21 changes can shift to D Lean) [-1 change needed] MI: D 50% Tossup (24 changes can shift to D Lean) [-9 changes needed] MO: R 50% Tossup (19 changes can shift to R 40%) [+4 changes needed] NC: R 50% Strong (36 changes can shift to R Lean) [-3 changes needed] NV: D 30% Tossup ( 1 change can shift to R 30%) [+1 change needed] NV: D 30% Tossup ( 3 changes can shift to R 40%) [+2 changes needed] NV: D 30% Tossup ( 2 changes can shift to D 40%) [-1 change needed] OH: D 50% Tossup (23 changes can shift to D 40%) [unchanged] PA: D 50% Tossup (12 changes can shift to D Lean) [-4 changes needed] VA: R 50% Tossup ( 7 changes can shift to R 40%) [-3 changes needed] WV: R 50% Strong (19 changes can shift to R Lean) [+1 change needed] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on July 02, 2008, 10:14:53 PM 4 new predictors since three days ago (Sunday). With a total of 900 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent increases by 1 to 45.
Here are the easy shifts. Changes to them have been strongly pro-McCain. CO: D 50% Tossup (42 changes can shift to D 40%) [-1 change needed] DE: D 50% Lean (39 changes can shift to D Strong) [-1 change needed] FL: R 50% Tossup (14 changes can shift to R Lean) [-6 changes needed] HI: D 50% Strong (20 changes can shift to D Lean) [-1 change needed] MI: D 50% Tossup (20 changes can shift to D Lean) [-4 changes needed] MO: R 50% Tossup (30 changes can shift to R 40%) [+11 changes needed] NC: R 50% Strong (38 changes can shift to R Lean) [+2 changes needed] NV: R 40% Tossup ( 8 change can shift to R 30%) [+10 changes needed] NV: R 40% Tossup (10 changes can shift to D 30%) [+10 changes needed] NV: R 40% Tossup (12 changes can shift to D 40%) [+10 changes needed] OH: D 50% Tossup (21 changes can shift to D 40%) [-2 changes needed] PA: D 50% Tossup (12 changes can shift to D Lean) [unchanged] VA: R 50% Tossup ( 3 changes can shift to R 40%) [-4 changes needed] WV: R 50% Strong (26 changes can shift to R Lean) [+7 changes needed] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on July 05, 2008, 01:01:07 PM 2 new predictors since three days ago (Wednesday). With a total of 902 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 45.
Here are the easy shifts. Very mild movement in favor Obama overall. Colorado now needs 46 changes to shift to D 40% and is no longer an easy change. Iowa needs 47 changes to shift to D 50% and if current trends continue will join the list soon. DE: D 50% Lean (36 changes can shift to D Strong) [-3 changes needed] FL: R 50% Tossup (13 changes can shift to R Lean) [-1 change needed] HI: D 50% Strong (21 changes can shift to D Lean) [+1 change needed] MI: D 50% Tossup (20 changes can shift to D Lean) [unchanged] MO: R 50% Tossup (32 changes can shift to R 40%) [+2 changes needed] NC: R 50% Strong (35 changes can shift to R Lean) [-3 changes needed] NV: R 40% Tossup (10 changes can shift to R 30%) [+2 changes needed] NV: R 40% Tossup (12 changes can shift to D 30%) [+2 changes needed] NV: R 40% Tossup (14 changes can shift to D 40%) [+2 changes needed] OH: D 50% Tossup (23 changes can shift to D 40%) [+2 changes needed] PA: D 50% Tossup (10 changes can shift to D Lean) [-2 changes needed] VA: R 40% Tossup ( 1 change can shift to R 50%) [+3 changes needed] WV: R 50% Strong (23 changes can shift to R Lean) [-3 changes needed] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on July 07, 2008, 05:31:19 PM 2 new predictors since two days ago (Saturday). With a total of 904 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 45.
Here are the easy shifts. Iowa has joined the list of easy changes. The change of Virginia in the other direction (to R 30%) now needs 49 changes and may join the list. DE: D 50% Lean (31 changes can shift to D Strong) [-5 changes needed] FL: R 50% Tossup (11 changes can shift to R Lean) [-2 changes needed] HI: D 50% Strong (24 changes can shift to D Lean) [+3 changes needed] IA: D 40% Tossup (44 changes can shift to D 50%) [-3 changes needed] MI: D 50% Tossup (14 changes can shift to D Lean) [-6 changes needed] MO: R 50% Tossup (37 changes can shift to R 40%) [+5 changes needed] NC: R 50% Strong (33 changes can shift to R Lean) [-2 changes needed] NV: R 40% Tossup (14 changes can shift to R 30%) [+4 changes needed] NV: R 40% Tossup (15 changes can shift to D 30%) [+3 changes needed] NV: R 40% Tossup (17 changes can shift to D 40%) [+3 changes needed] OH: D 50% Tossup (28 changes can shift to D 40%) [+5 changes needed] PA: D 50% Tossup ( 5 changes can shift to D Lean) [-5 changes needed] VA: R 40% Tossup ( 5 changes can shift to R 50%) [+4 changes needed] WV: R 50% Strong (24 changes can shift to R Lean) [+1 change needed] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on July 10, 2008, 06:38:38 PM 2 new predictors since three days ago (Monday). With a total of 906 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 45.
Here are the easy shifts. Given the lack of polling results, its understandable that nothing has seen a strong shift in opinions as to who will win where. DE: D 50% Lean (31 changes can shift to D Strong) [unchanged] FL: R 50% Tossup (11 changes can shift to R Lean) [unchanged] HI: D 50% Strong (26 changes can shift to D Lean) [+2 changes needed] IA: D 40% Tossup (45 changes can shift to D 50%) [+1 change needed] MI: D 50% Tossup (15 changes can shift to D Lean) [+1 change needed] MO: R 50% Tossup (39 changes can shift to R 40%) [+2 changes needed] NC: R 50% Strong (33 changes can shift to R Lean) [unchanged] NV: R 40% Tossup (13 changes can shift to R 30%) [-1 change needed] NV: R 40% Tossup (14 changes can shift to D 30%) [-1 change needed] NV: R 40% Tossup (16 changes can shift to D 40%) [-1 changes needed] OH: D 50% Tossup (32 changes can shift to D 40%) [+4 changes needed] PA: D 50% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to D Lean) [+1 change needed] VA: R 40% Tossup ( 3 changes can shift to R 50%) [-2 changes needed] WV: R 50% Strong (24 changes can shift to R Lean) [unchanged] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on July 12, 2008, 12:39:08 PM 3 new predictors since two days ago (Thursday). With a total of 909 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 45.
Here are the easy shifts. Nothing particularly noteworthy, though a very slight shift in predictions overall to favor Obama DE: D 50% Lean (28 changes can shift to D Strong) [-3 changes needed] FL: R 50% Tossup (12 changes can shift to R Lean) [+1 change needed] HI: D 50% Strong (27 changes can shift to D Lean) [+1 change needed] IA: D 40% Tossup (42 changes can shift to D 50%) [-3 changes needed] MI: D 50% Tossup (15 changes can shift to D Lean) [unchanged] MO: R 50% Tossup (39 changes can shift to R 40%) [unchanged] NC: R 50% Strong (28 changes can shift to R Lean) [-5 changes needed] NV: R 40% Tossup (10 changes can shift to R 30%) [-3 changes needed] NV: R 40% Tossup (11 changes can shift to D 30%) [-3 changes needed] NV: R 40% Tossup (13 changes can shift to D 40%) [-3 changes needed] OH: D 50% Tossup (31 changes can shift to D 40%) [-1 change needed] PA: D 50% Tossup ( 5 changes can shift to D Lean) [-1 change needed] VA: R 40% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to R 50%) [+3 changes needed] WV: R 50% Strong (26 changes can shift to R Lean) [+2 changes needed] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on July 16, 2008, 09:51:48 PM 6 new predictors since four days ago (Saturday). With a total of 915 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 45.
Here are the easy shifts. Save for Nevada, predictions mainly shifted towards Obama. Pennsylvania barely shifted over to D Lean and it would take only 1 change to shift it back. DE: D 50% Lean (26 changes can shift to D Strong) [-2 changes needed] FL: R 50% Tossup (14 changes can shift to R Lean) [+2 changes needed] HI: D 50% Strong (29 changes can shift to D Lean) [+2 changes needed] IA: D 40% Tossup (42 changes can shift to D 50%) [unchanged] MI: D 50% Tossup ( 7 changes can shift to D Lean) [-8 changes needed] MO: R 50% Tossup (38 changes can shift to R 40%) [-1 changes needed] NC: R 50% Strong (25 changes can shift to R Lean) [-3 changes needed] NV: R 40% Tossup (14 changes can shift to R 30%) [+4 changes needed] NV: R 40% Tossup (15 changes can shift to D 30%) [+4 changes needed] NV: R 40% Tossup (18 changes can shift to D 40%) [+5 changes needed] OH: D 50% Tossup (32 changes can shift to D 40%) [+1 change needed] PA: D 50% Lean ( 1 change can shift to D Tossup) [+5 changes needed] VA: R 40% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to R 50%) [unchanged] WV: R 50% Strong (25 changes can shift to R Lean) [-1 change needed] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on July 18, 2008, 01:13:46 PM 2 new predictors since two days ago (Wednesday). With a total of 917 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 45.
Here are the easy shifts. Obama gained slightly in a mixed result. With no polling news, I have no idea why Missouri had the largest amount of change in the changes I'm tracking closely. Texas is getting close to having an easy shift on the list with only 49 changes now needed to shift from R 60% to R 50%. DE: D 50% Lean (27 changes can shift to D Strong) [+1] FL: R 50% Tossup (14 changes can shift to R Lean) [±0] HI: D 50% Strong (30 changes can shift to D Lean) [+1] IA: D 40% Tossup (42 changes can shift to D 50%) [±0] MI: D 50% Tossup ( 4 changes can shift to D Lean) [-3] MO: R 50% Tossup (29 changes can shift to R 40%) [-9] NC: R 50% Strong (27 changes can shift to R Lean) [+2] NV: R 40% Tossup ( 9 changes can shift to R 30%) [-5] NV: R 40% Tossup (10 changes can shift to D 30%) [-5] NV: R 40% Tossup (12 changes can shift to D 40%) [-6] OH: D 50% Tossup (33 changes can shift to D 40%) [+1] PA: D 50% Lean ( 3 changes can shift to D Tossup) [+2] VA: R 40% Tossup ( 4 changes can shift to R 50%) [-2] WV: R 50% Strong (27 changes can shift to R Lean) [+2] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on July 21, 2008, 08:01:33 PM 12 new predictors since three days ago (Friday). With a total of 929 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent increases by 1 to 46.
Here are the easy shifts. Michigan made a one day shift to D Lean yesterday, and it would only take 1 change to restore it to D Lean. Texas is closer to making the list as it now needs 47 changes for its shift. DE: D 50% Lean (25 changes can shift to D Strong) [-2] FL: R 50% Tossup (10 changes can shift to R Lean) [-4] HI: D 50% Strong (35 changes can shift to D Lean) [+5] IA: D 40% Tossup (39 changes can shift to D 50%) [-3] MI: D 50% Tossup ( 1 change can shift to D Lean) [-3] MO: R 50% Tossup (28 changes can shift to R 40%) [-1] NC: R 50% Strong (18 changes can shift to R Lean) [-9] NV: R 40% Tossup ( 1 change can shift to R 30%) [-8] NV: R 40% Tossup ( 3 changes can shift to D 30%) [-7] NV: R 40% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to D 40%) [-6] OH: D 50% Tossup (35 changes can shift to D 40%) [+2] PA: D 50% Lean ( 3 changes can shift to D Tossup) [±0] VA: R 40% Tossup ( 8 changes can shift to R 50%) [+4] WV: R 50% Strong (38 changes can shift to R Lean) [+11] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on July 24, 2008, 07:28:00 PM 4 new predictors since three days ago (Monday). With a total of 933 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 46.
Here are the easy shifts. Michigan has shifted from D Tossup to D Lean. Nevada has shifted from R 40% to R 30% since last time. Texas has joined the list of easy shifts. DE: D 50% Lean (23 changes can shift to D Strong) [-2] FL: R 50% Tossup (19 changes can shift to R Lean) [+9] HI: D 50% Strong (37 changes can shift to D Lean) [+2] IA: D 40% Tossup (37 changes can shift to D 50%) [-2] MI: D 50% Lean ( 8 changes can shift to D Tossup) [+8] MO: R 50% Tossup (29 changes can shift to R 40%) [+1] NC: R 50% Strong (12 changes can shift to R Lean) [-6] NV: R 30% Tossup ( 2 changes can shift to R 40%) [+2] NV: R 30% Tossup ( 2 changes can shift to D 30%) [-1] NV: R 30% Tossup ( 5 changes can shift to D 40%) [-1] OH: D 50% Tossup (32 changes can shift to D 40%) [-3] PA: D 50% Lean (10 changes can shift to D Tossup) [+7] TX: R 60% Strong (45 changes can shift to R 50%) [-2] VA: R 40% Tossup (16 changes can shift to R 50%) [+8] WV: R 50% Strong (38 changes can shift to R Lean) [±0] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on July 27, 2008, 09:32:19 PM 7 new predictors since three days ago (Thursday). With a total of 940 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent increases by 1 to 47.
Here are the easy shifts. Nevada has shifted from R 30% to D 40% since last time. Besides the change from R 40% to R 50% for Virginia that has been on the list, it has been joined by a change in the other direction to R 30%. DE: D 50% Lean (21 changes can shift to D Strong) [-2] FL: R 50% Tossup (19 changes can shift to R Lean) [±0] HI: D 50% Strong (43 changes can shift to D Lean) [+6] IA: D 40% Tossup (34 changes can shift to D 50%) [-3] MI: D 50% Lean ( 7 changes can shift to D Tossup) [-1] MO: R 50% Tossup (31 changes can shift to R 40%) [+2] NC: R 50% Strong ( 7 changes can shift to R Lean) [-5] NV: D 40% Tossup ( 1 change can shift to D 30%) [+5] NV: D 40% Tossup ( 4 changes can shift to R 30%) [+5] NV: D 40% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to R 40%) [+4] OH: D 50% Tossup (28 changes can shift to D 40%) [-4] PA: D 50% Lean (17 changes can shift to D Tossup) [+7] TX: R 60% Strong (47 changes can shift to R 50%) [+2] VA: R 40% Tossup (21 changes can shift to R 50%) [+5] VA: R 40% Tossup (43 changes can shift to R 30%) [new] WV: R 50% Strong (43 changes can shift to R Lean) [+5] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: Josh/Devilman88 on July 27, 2008, 09:41:34 PM GO NC!!!!!!!!!! Lean here we come!
Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on July 29, 2008, 10:56:09 PM 6 new predictors since two days ago (Sunday). With a total of 946 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 47.
Here are the easy shifts. Nevada has shifted from D 40% back to D 30% since last time. Josh will have to wait longer for the shift in North Carolina, assuming it ever happens. DE: D 50% Lean (23 changes can shift to D Strong) [+2] FL: R 50% Tossup (20 changes can shift to R Lean) [+1] HI: D 50% Strong (39 changes can shift to D Lean) [-4] IA: D 40% Tossup (32 changes can shift to D 50%) [-2] MI: D 50% Lean ( 3 changes can shift to D Tossup) [-4] MO: R 50% Tossup (34 changes can shift to R 40%) [+3] NC: R 50% Strong (10 changes can shift to R Lean) [+3] NV: D 30% Tossup ( 2 changes can shift to D 40%) [+2] NV: D 30% Tossup ( 2 changes can shift to R 30%) [-2] NV: D 30% Tossup ( 4 changes can shift to R 40%) [-2] OH: D 50% Tossup (28 changes can shift to D 40%) [±0] PA: D 50% Lean (13 changes can shift to D Tossup) [-4] TX: R 60% Strong (47 changes can shift to R 50%) [+2] VA: R 40% Tossup (23 changes can shift to R 50%) [+2] VA: R 40% Tossup (40 changes can shift to R 30%) [-3] VA: R 40% Tossup (44 changes can shift to D 30%) [new] VA: R 40% Tossup (46 changes can shift to D 40%) [new] WV: R 50% Strong (45 changes can shift to R Lean) [+2] Since we're at the top of a new page, I'm also listing the not as easy changes that require a 5 to 10% shift. AK: R 60% Strong (80 changes can shift to R 50%) CA: D 50% Strong (76 changes can shift to D Lean) CO: D 50% Tossup (48 changes can shift to D 40%) IN: R 50% Strong (70 changes can shift to R Lean) MT: R 50% Strong (89 changes can shift to R Lean) WA: D 50% Lean (82 changes can shift to D Strong) WI: D 40% Tossup (63 changes can shift to D 50%) WI: D 40% Tossup (56 changes can shift to D Lean) Key: Red text indicates a change in favor of the Democrats Blue text indicates a change in favor of the Republicans Gray text indicates a change that requires a different change to happen first before it can happen. Yellow background indicates a change that would affect Dave's line graph. Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: Josh/Devilman88 on July 30, 2008, 07:08:02 AM Darn you people!
Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on August 07, 2008, 06:10:30 PM 24 new predictors since nine days ago (Tuesday a week ago). With a total of 970 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent increases by 1 to 48.
Here are the easy shifts. During my nine day hiatus, Michigan has gone from D Lean to D Tossup and Nevada from D 30% to R 40%. Texas now needs 50 shifts and West Virgina 53 for their most likely shifts and thus has fallen off the list of easy shifts. Conversely Colorado and Wisconsin have joined the list. With only 52 changes needed, Wisconsin's percentages could join Wisconsin's confidence on the list very readily if trends continue. CO: D 50% Tossup (37 changes can shift to D 40%) [-11] DE: D 50% Lean (14 changes can shift to D Strong) [-9] FL: R 50% Tossup (20 changes can shift to R Lean) [+1] HI: D 50% Strong (38 changes can shift to D Lean) [-1] IA: D 40% Tossup (29 changes can shift to D 50%) [-3] MI: D 50% Tossup (11 changes can shift to D Lean) [+13] MO: R 50% Tossup (45 changes can shift to R 40%) [+11] NC: R 50% Strong (13 changes can shift to R Lean) [+3] NV: R 40% Tossup ( 5 changes can shift to R 30%) [+5] NV: R 40% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to D 30%) [+6] NV: R 40% Tossup ( 8 changes can shift to D 40%) [+6] OH: D 50% Tossup (19 changes can shift to D 40%) [-9] PA: D 50% Lean (21 changes can shift to D Tossup) [+8] VA: R 40% Tossup (20 changes can shift to R 50%) [-3] VA: R 40% Tossup (41 changes can shift to R 30%) [+1] VA: R 40% Tossup (45 changes can shift to D 30%) [+1] VA: R 40% Tossup (47 changes can shift to D 40%) [+1] WI: D 40% Tossup (47 changes can shift to D Lean) [-9] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on August 11, 2008, 05:43:22 PM 16 new predictors since four days ago (Thursday). With a total of 986 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent increases by 1 to 49.
Here are the easy shifts. The past four days have generally been favorable to McCain prediction-wise. Missouri has left the list as it now needs 50 shifts to change to R 40%. Texas remains in the wings, needing 54 shifts. Virgina's pro-Obama shifts have fallen off the list thanks to 10 changes that make the needed shifts 51, 55, and 57 for R 30%, D 30%, and D 40% respectively, while the pro-McCain shift to R 50% remains on the list. A percentage shift for Wisconsin has joined the confidence shift for that State, and had a bigger net change, enough to make it the likelier of the two shifts for now. CO: D 50% Tossup (40 changes can shift to D 40%) [+3] DE: D 50% Lean ( 6 changes can shift to D Strong) [-8] FL: R 50% Tossup ( 5 changes can shift to R Lean) [-15] HI: D 50% Strong (42 changes can shift to D Lean) [+4] IA: D 40% Tossup (30 changes can shift to D 50%) [+1] MI: D 50% Tossup (18 changes can shift to D Lean) [+7] NC: R 50% Strong (31 changes can shift to R Lean) [+18] NV: R 40% Tossup (15 changes can shift to R 30%) [+10] NV: R 40% Tossup (16 changes can shift to D 30%) [+10] NV: R 40% Tossup (18 changes can shift to D 40%) [+10] OH: D 50% Tossup (13 changes can shift to D 40%) [-6] PA: D 50% Lean (15 changes can shift to D Tossup) [-6] VA: R 40% Tossup (12 changes can shift to R 50%) [-8] WI: D 40% Tossup (45 changes can shift to D Lean) [-2] WI: D 40% Tossup (44 changes can shift to D 50%) [-8] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on August 13, 2008, 06:45:34 PM 8 new predictors since two days ago (Tuesday). With a total of 998 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 49. Since Tuesday, Florida has shifted from R Tossup to R Lean, affecting the line graph.
Here are the easy shifts. The past two days have been almost totally favorable to McCain prediction-wise. The sole exception is North Carolina, which had a huge McCain bounce in my last summary. CO: D 50% Tossup (27 changes can shift to D 40%) [-13] DE: D 50% Lean (10 changes can shift to D Strong) [+4] FL: R 50% Lean ( 2 changes can shift to R Tossup) [+6] HI: D 50% Strong (38 changes can shift to D Lean) [-4] IA: D 40% Tossup (35 changes can shift to D 50%) [+5] MI: D 50% Tossup (22 changes can shift to D Lean) [+4] NC: R 50% Strong (24 changes can shift to R Lean) [-7] NV: R 40% Tossup (21 changes can shift to R 30%) [+6] NV: R 40% Tossup (23 changes can shift to D 30%) [+7] NV: R 40% Tossup (25 changes can shift to D 40%) [+7] OH: D 50% Tossup ( 8 changes can shift to D 40%) [-5] PA: D 50% Lean (12 changes can shift to D Tossup) [-3] WI: D 40% Tossup (48 changes can shift to D Lean) [+3] WI: D 40% Tossup (48 changes can shift to D 50%) [+4] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on August 14, 2008, 09:06:29 PM 5 new predictors since yesterday (Wednesday). With a total of 1003 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent increases by 1 to 50.
Here are the easy shifts. CO: D 50% Tossup (24 changes can shift to D 40%) [-3] DE: D 50% Lean (11 changes can shift to D Strong) [+1] FL: R 50% Lean ( 7 changes can shift to R Tossup) [+5] HI: D 50% Strong (37 changes can shift to D Lean) [-1] IA: D 40% Tossup (36 changes can shift to D 50%) [+1] MI: D 50% Tossup (26 changes can shift to D Lean) [+4] NC: R 50% Strong (23 changes can shift to R Lean) [-1] NV: R 40% Tossup (26 changes can shift to R 30%) [+5] NV: R 40% Tossup (27 changes can shift to D 30%) [+4] NV: R 40% Tossup (29 changes can shift to D 40%) [+4] OH: D 50% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to D 40%) [-2] PA: D 50% Lean ( 9 changes can shift to D Tossup) [-3] VA: R 40% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to R 50%) WI: D 40% Tossup (49 changes can shift to D 50%) [+1]
Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on August 15, 2008, 06:17:01 PM 1 fewer predictors since yesterday (Thursday). (Did Dave prune a duplicate or two?) With a total of 1002 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 50.
Here are the easy shifts. Changes are mildly pro-McCain overall, but not nearly as much as has been the case of late, suggesting that sentiment is reaching a new equilibrium. CO: D 50% Tossup (22 changes can shift to D 40%) [-2] DE: D 50% Lean (12 changes can shift to D Strong) [+1] FL: R 50% Lean ( 6 changes can shift to R Tossup) [-1] HI: D 50% Strong (37 changes can shift to D Lean) [±0] IA: D 40% Tossup (37 changes can shift to D 50%) [+1] MI: D 50% Tossup (27 changes can shift to D Lean) [+1] NC: R 50% Strong (22 changes can shift to R Lean) [-1] NV: R 40% Tossup (26 changes can shift to R 30%) [±0] NV: R 40% Tossup (27 changes can shift to D 30%) [±0] NV: R 40% Tossup (29 changes can shift to D 40%) [±0] OH: D 50% Tossup ( 8 changes can shift to D 40%) [+2] PA: D 50% Lean (12 changes can shift to D Tossup) [+3] VA: R 40% Tossup ( 4 changes can shift to R 50%) [-2] WI: D 40% Tossup (49 changes can shift to D 50%) [±0] WI: D 40% Tossup (49 changes can shift to D Lean) [+1] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on August 16, 2008, 06:36:45 PM 7 new predictors since yesterday (Friday). With a total of 1009 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 50.
Here are the easy shifts. Virginia has shifted from R 40% to R 50%, tho it would only take 1 change to shift it back. Definite advantage to McCain in the last 24 hours of prediction changes. Only state that I'm tracking that improved for Obama is Delaware. Have rumors of Biden as Obama's running mate increased of late, or is this just a statistical blip in Delaware? CO: D 50% Tossup (18 changes can shift to D 40%) [-1] DE: D 50% Lean (10 changes can shift to D Strong) [-2] FL: R 50% Lean (10 changes can shift to R Tossup) [+4] HI: D 50% Strong (36 changes can shift to D Lean) [-1] IA: D 40% Tossup (38 changes can shift to D 50%) [+1] MI: D 50% Tossup (29 changes can shift to D Lean) [+2] NC: R 50% Strong (22 changes can shift to R Lean) [±0] NV: R 40% Tossup (31 changes can shift to R 30%) [+5] NV: R 40% Tossup (32 changes can shift to D 30%) [+5] NV: R 40% Tossup (34 changes can shift to D 40%) [+5] OH: D 50% Tossup ( 5 changes can shift to D 40%) [-3] PA: D 50% Lean (10 changes can shift to D Tossup) [-2] VA: R 50% Tossup ( 1 change can shift to R 40%) [+4] WI: D 40% Tossup (49 changes can shift to D 50%) [±0] WI: D 40% Tossup (49 changes can shift to D Lean) [±0] Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: Хahar 🤔 on August 16, 2008, 11:59:49 PM Most likely a blip. I can't imagine Biden would cause many people to move Delaware.
Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: Erc on September 07, 2008, 11:03:49 PM Ohio appears to have flipped to R +30.
Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: auburntiger on September 08, 2008, 12:07:44 AM Wow! Ohio just flipped! That came out of nowhere fast.
Now all we need is for Colorado to get with the program, like it usually does. Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on September 08, 2008, 12:40:29 AM It;s about time Ohio flipped. PA is now a tossup as well.
Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: minionofmidas on September 30, 2008, 12:47:08 PM Update?
Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on September 30, 2008, 03:10:25 PM No. I got busy with other things and once I got unbusy, I decided not to bother with this any more. If someone else wants to, they can. It's not difficult, just time consuming. Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: GMantis on October 27, 2008, 05:05:39 AM The first change in well over a month - Colorado switched from >40% Dem to 50 >50% Dem.
Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: tokar on October 28, 2008, 07:42:39 PM The first change in well over a month - Colorado switched from >40% Dem to 50 >50% Dem. Another couple changes in the last couple of days you missed: Michigan went from Toss-up confidence to Lean Democratic confidence. Missouri went from Lean Republican confidence to Toss-up confidence. Iowa is almost ready to flip from Toss-up confidence to Lean Democratic as well. 10 more flips (or 19 new user predictions) to Lean/Strong DEM will push it to Lean Democratic confidence. 16 flips (or 31 new user predictions) to Lean/Strong DEM will push PA to Lean Democratic confidence. Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: GMantis on October 29, 2008, 11:30:24 AM The first change in well over a month - Colorado switched from >40% Dem to 50 >50% Dem. Another couple changes in the last couple of days you missed: Michigan went from Toss-up confidence to Lean Democratic confidence. Missouri went from Lean Republican confidence to Toss-up confidence. Iowa is almost ready to flip from Toss-up confidence to Lean Democratic as well. 10 more flips (or 19 new user predictions) to Lean/Strong DEM will push it to Lean Democratic confidence. 16 flips (or 31 new user predictions) to Lean/Strong DEM will push PA to Lean Democratic confidence. Title: Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted Post by: GMantis on October 30, 2008, 01:55:31 AM And Ohio has finally switched.
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