Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Gubernatorial/State Elections => Topic started by: Meeker on June 03, 2008, 02:13:58 AM



Title: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 03, 2008, 02:13:58 AM
Well it's filing week in Washington. The reason I bring this up as a slight matter of interest is because of the effects the bizarre new top-two primary is having on the ballot. Party selections are now done by having a candidate fill in a sixteen character space with the name of their party, and you can put whatever you want so long as it isn't vulgar. The current choices of labels by various candidates:

Prefers Democratic Party
Prefers Republican Party
Prefers Democrat Party
Prefers G.O.P. Party
Prefers R Party
Prefers D Party
Prefers Green Party
Prefers Libertarian Paty
Prefers Party of Commons Party
Prefers Independent Party
States No Party Preference

The whole "Prefers G.O.P. Party" strikes me as the silliest, but several incumbent legislators are using it.


*** mod note (7/27/2018): changed '17 in title to '18


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 03, 2008, 02:28:21 AM
Wow I was just going to post something about this...

I really hate this system so far... :P

So by the end of the week should we know who all the candidates are?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 03, 2008, 02:37:39 AM
So by the end of the week should we know who all the candidates are?

Yea - none of that "parties have a week to fill vacancies" anymore. It's a free-for-all, every man for themselves filing bloodfest.

And this system sucks.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 03, 2008, 02:43:15 AM
Did the Republicans ever find a candidate for State Auditor? Or Insurance Commissioner? Hopefully not.

I would love to see the Republican fail to make it to the general in the 7th district.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 03, 2008, 03:06:39 AM
Did the Republicans ever find a candidate for State Auditor? Or Insurance Commissioner? Hopefully not.

I suspect someone will file eventually, even if it just a Brad Klippert/Hong Tran type. There is a Constitution Party candidate for State Auditor (hasn't filed yet though), so Sonntag won't be running unopposed.

I would love to see the Republican fail to make it to the general in the 7th district.

There's a chance that may happen in the 6th District even. There's a Democrat running to Norm Dicks' left who is generating a fair amount of interest amongst liberals in the party. Him doing well plus low Republican turnout could yield interesting results.

The Treasurer race may also give us a double D general if we're lucky.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 03, 2008, 03:16:20 AM
Did the Republicans ever find a candidate for State Auditor? Or Insurance Commissioner? Hopefully not.

I suspect someone will file eventually, even if it just a Brad Klippert/Hong Tran type. There is a Constitution Party candidate for State Auditor (hasn't filed yet though), so Sonntag won't be running unopposed.

Hahaha yeah, I know about the Constitution Party candidate. I would love to see a D vs. C race, which is why I really hope the Republicans don't run a candidate.

Quote
I would love to see the Republican fail to make it to the general in the 7th district.

There's a chance that may happen in the 6th District even. There's a Democrat running to Norm Dicks' left who is generating a fair amount of interest amongst liberals in the party. Him doing well plus low Republican turnout could yield interesting results.

I kind of doubt it, but I guess we can hope.

Quote
The Treasurer race may also give us a double D general if we're lucky.

I highly doubt that. Martin is a good candidate and should easily get on the general ballot. I hope Sohn is the Democratic candidate. McIntire probably wouldn't do as well.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 03, 2008, 03:25:43 AM
McIntire is a weirdy. He gives me the creeps.

There's also a Legislature race up in the San Juans that is D vs. G right now.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 03, 2008, 03:29:37 AM
Yay, San Juans <3

Isn't there likely going to be a D vs. D race in the 43rd district?

I remember in 2004 or 2006 when they had a primary for the seat that Jamie Pedersen eventually won... All six Democrats got more votes than the Republican. Beautiful!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 03, 2008, 03:38:23 AM
Yay, San Juans <3

Isn't there likely going to be a D vs. D race in the 43rd district?

I remember in 2004 or 2006 when they had a primary for the seat that Jamie Pedersen eventually won... All six Democrats got more votes than the Republican. Beautiful!

I'm not sure if Pedersen is getting a challenger or not. The 36th District House seat should be D vs. D, and probably the 33rd District House seat as well (both retirements). The 40th District Senate race maybe D vs. D as well.

There's also probably going to be some R vs. R races in the Eastern Washington for the House. The 4th, 7th, 8th and 14th are all strong possibilities due to retirements.

EDIT: And 46th District House could be D v. D as well... so many fun possibilities.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 03, 2008, 03:48:50 AM
Oh, I was probably thinking of the 36th district...

I didn't mean Pedersen was getting challenged, just using the primary he won as an example of how easy it would be to have no Republican on the general ballot in the 43rd.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 03, 2008, 09:45:32 AM
Someone has filed under the label "Prefers America's Third Party"

Our primary is a joke


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 03, 2008, 02:35:49 PM
How much longer until we get "prefers topless party" :( :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 03, 2008, 04:59:42 PM
A lot of the Democrats who filed as "Prefers Democrat Party" yesterday have now switched to "Prefers Democratic Party". I wonder if the State Party yelled at them


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 03, 2008, 05:21:43 PM
sharon K. Nelson, candidate for State House, seems to have forgotten to capitalize her name


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 03, 2008, 06:08:53 PM
I'm a little surprised no somewhat serious Republican has challenged Reed in the primary so far.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 06, 2008, 12:39:35 AM
A few random updates:

- Prefers G.O.P. Party is very common - I'd say at least 1/4 of the Republicans have chosen that, including The Dino himself.

- The Constitution Party is running several candidates for statewide office, and one for Congress. Considering that the Constitution Party has been basically non-existent in the state for many years now, it's an impressive turnaround on their part. The Libertarians have a candidate for only one office (WA-05) as far as I can tell - an unfathomable decline compared to just 6 years ago.

- Speaking of third parties, there looks to be three opportunities for third parties to get to the November ballot. Only the incumbent Democrat and a Constitution Party candidate have filed for State Auditor, and the Democratic v. Green race for a State House seat up in the San Juans is still without a Republican. An Independent is also the only person running against the Senate Majority Leader in her Spokane district.

- And on a personal note, the candidate for State House whose campaign I'm supposed to be managing doesn't have an opponent as of right now, and we don't know of any in the wings. Kind of pathetic on the local Republican Party's part - just 5 years ago they controlled all three seats in this district and Bush actually won it with 51%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 06, 2008, 12:43:14 AM
- And on a personal note, the candidate for State House whose campaign I'm supposed to be managing doesn't have an opponent as of right now, and we don't know of any in the wings. Kind of pathetic on the local Republican Party's part - just 5 years ago they controlled all three seats in this district, and Bush actually won it with 51%.

I have no idea what you're going to have me do after the PAC stuff now.  :(

Kerry got the 51% actually, but I think it used to be really solidly GOP on the state level, didn't it? If the GOP can't recruit for seats like these, they might as well just rename to the Eastern Washington and Lewis County Party and stop bothering.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 06, 2008, 01:07:49 AM
- And on a personal note, the candidate for State House whose campaign I'm supposed to be managing doesn't have an opponent as of right now, and we don't know of any in the wings. Kind of pathetic on the local Republican Party's part - just 5 years ago they controlled all three seats in this district, and Bush actually won it with 51%.

I have no idea what you're going to have me do after the PAC stuff now.  :(

Kerry got the 51% actually, but I think it used to be really solidly GOP on the state level, didn't it? If the GOP can't recruit for seats like these, they might as well just rename to the Eastern Washington and Lewis County Party and stop bothering.

I could've sworn Kerry got 51% as well, but I checked my super-secret internal Democratic Party stuff before I posted it and they said Bush got 51% so I went with that. Regardless, it's pathetic they can't field a candidate. In 2002 they were running unopposed or winning 75% of the vote. In 2000 our Democratic Party consisted of five people who met in a livingroom. Now we have around 50 very active members, both of the State House seats, and the best they can do is one sub-par candidate for arguably their second or third best shot at a House seat in the entire state.

As for what we ourselves going to end up doing... I don't really know. There will still be a campaign even without an opponent though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 06, 2008, 01:18:42 AM
Prefers Grand Old Party Party

lol Republicans

Dino is a tard.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 06, 2008, 10:34:24 AM
A Republican filed to run for State Auditor, dashing the Constitution Party's general election hopes. Sad day


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 06, 2008, 11:58:13 AM
And here's something interesting - an incumbent State Representative from Olympia has filed as "Prefers Progressive Dem. Party". Now we get into the fuzzy area of whether or not that qualifies as a third party getting elected to the Legislature. Irrelevant for practicality purposes, but absolutely critical for the pedants amongst us.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 06, 2008, 12:01:40 PM
Looks like these are the presumptive races.

Governor: Christine Gregoire* (D) v. Dino Rossi (R)
Lt. Governor: Brad Owen* (D) v. Marcia McCraw (R)
Secretary of State: James Osgood (D) v. Sam Reed* (R)
State Treasurer: Jim McIntire/ChangMook Sohn (D) v. Allan Martin (R)
State Auditor: Brian Sonntag* (D) v. Dick McEntee (R)
State Attorney General: John Ladenburg (D) v. Rob McKenna* (R)
Commissioner of Public Lands: Peter Goldmark (D) v. Doug Sutherland* (R)
Insurance Commissioner: Mike Kreidler* (D) v. John Adams (R)

I recognize most of the non-factors.  Marcia McCraw is a do-gooder/Seattle lawyer, Dick McEntee's wife was an anti-abortion activist and he's a local GOP guy in the Tacoma suburbs and John Adams is a re-hash candidate from 2004.

But who's James Osgood?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 06, 2008, 12:07:04 PM

Blogger from Seattle. He's obsessed with election security stuff (anti-VBM, anti-optical scan, etc.) He claims the Democrats will support him, but I highly doubt it. The guys over at (un)Sound Politics have already endorsed him.

So basically a Democrat running to the right of a Republican in a very good Democratic year for an office that has overall little to do with partisanship. Only in Washington!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 06, 2008, 12:12:07 PM
Oh, my bad.  It's Jason Osgood.  When I Googled James Osgood, some Democratic CEO from Sammamish came up.

So, he's angry about mail voting and runs this (http://blog.zappini.org/) blog, and that's it?

This may be the first time the Democrats have taken no serious effort to challenge Reed whatsoever...should be interesting to see how big of a landslide he gets.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 06, 2008, 12:16:38 PM
We should've run Dean Logan :(

There would've had to have been a pretty amazing Democrat for me to not support Reed though, so I'm fine with a non-factor running.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 06, 2008, 12:21:09 PM
Mohammad Hasan Said files!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 06, 2008, 12:31:24 PM

No politician refuses to use "the" in ballot statements quite like him <3


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 06, 2008, 12:38:37 PM
In other good news for democracy, only one of the 22 Judicial races in Pierce County is contested.

Why do we even bother electing these guys? It just wastes time and paper.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 06, 2008, 01:46:51 PM
Congressional competition.  This year's round of jokes, for state outsiders' sake:

1st – Jay Inslee* (D) v. Larry Ishmael (R)
Ishmael is a business consultant and Issaquah School Board member.  Unfortunately for him, Issaquah isn't any more in the First District than it was the last time he ran, so he's still a filthy carpetbagger.

2nd – Rick Larsen* (D) v. Rick Bart (R)
Rick Bart is the Snohomish County Sheriff and uses the email address theoriginalposse@live.com.  God help us all.

3rd – Brian Baird* (D) v. Michael Delavar (R)
Michael Delavar is a pilot with a suspiciously good web site (http://www.delavarforcongress.com/) that makes it obvious that he's a right-winged Paulite (http://www.politickerwa.com/bryanbissell/578/catching-challengers-michael-delavar-high-flying-fiscal-conservative-runs-3rd-distr).

4th – George Fearing (D) v. "Doc" Hastings* (R)
According to the web site of Leavy, Shultz, Davis & Fearing, George Fearing is a "brilliant attorney and an indispensable asset to our firm."  Fortunately for Leavy, Shultz, Davis & Fearing, he will continue to be.

5th – Mark Mays (D) v. Cathy McMorris Rodgers* (R)
Mark Mays is a Spokane psychologist, attorney and professor, which probably one-ups challenger Barbara Lampert’s progressive platform of “I’m retired, so I’ll file for every office in the world ever.”

6th – Norm Dicks* (D) v. Doug Cloud (R)
Who cares?

7th – Jim McDermott* (D) v. Steve Beren (R)
Beren is a former socialist who found Jesus after 9/11 and apparently doesn’t realize that no one really cares.

8th – Darcy Burner (D) v. Dave Reichert* (R)
Actually somewhat competitive.  Personally, I think the Democrats would have been better-off with Rodney Tom.

9th – Adam Smith* (D)
Unopposed so far, surprisingly.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 06, 2008, 03:22:05 PM
I'm disappointed with the Secretary of State race. If the Democrats could've found a qualified candidate it would have been an easy pick-up. :(

Remember in 2000, the 7th district was D vs. G vs. L? I would've loved to see another Green run and stop the Republicans from getting on the general ballot. haha.

Doug Sutherland has won by small margins both times he's been elected, IIRC. I wonder if Goldmark has any chance of taking him out.

I support Burner of course, though she's kind of a disappointing candidate. In 2004 the Democrats run a radio show host and barely lose. In 2006 they run a..., hey I don't even know what Darcy Burner does, and she barely loses.

So sad to think that if the Democrats would just run a state legislator from the Eastside they would easily win this, yet they keep throwing the opportunity away and making it competitive. Sigh.

If Burner wins this year, I don't expect her to get re-elected too many times if you get my drift...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on June 06, 2008, 06:35:31 PM
I like Darcy Burner. She is a good candidate but she just didn't know how to run a campaign last time. I hope she has learned and will be better this time around.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 06, 2008, 08:57:06 PM
Someone named "Cleaver" has registered under the SalmonYoga Party.

This is officially a joke.

Someone named Thomas Thomas is a Republican candidate in the 24th.  Apparently it's even a real name.  And Will Baker has filed!  Hooray!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Verily on June 06, 2008, 10:39:15 PM
Someone named "Cleaver" has registered under the SalmonYoga Party.

This is officially a joke.

Someone named Thomas Thomas is a Republican candidate in the 24th.  Apparently it's even a real name.  And Will Baker has filed!  Hooray!

There's a local politician around here named Daniel Daniel.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 07, 2008, 01:07:26 AM
I've got some more comments and analysis to add later, but for now I'm quite pissed off at the 28th District Republican Party. You are a joke.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 07, 2008, 01:26:06 AM
So many third party candidates! This would be really entertaining if we still had normal elections... :(

Anyone know why the Constitution Party is back all of the sudden? And, as someone pointed out earlier, why the Libertarian Party is running so few candidates?

Anyway, glad to see the Democrats are actually running candidates in the 5th legislative district this time. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 07, 2008, 07:29:32 AM
I guess the CP just got really organized this year, and probably more importantly, got some sort of big fundraising score. I know their Auditor candidate is very serious - not sure if the other ones are just there to fluff the ballot. Regardless, glad to see them still surviving.

My only theory with the LP is that they're really cash strapped. In 2006 they tried to pool all their resources to get the 5% necessary in the Senate race to achieve major party status, but they obviously couldn't try anything like that this year so I'm not really sure what their strategy is going to be. Maybe they want to save their money and spend it campaigning for Barr/Root rather than spending it on filing fees for offices that won't even make it off the August ballot? Or they just have no money at all.

And the Greens made it to the general in the San Juans! :D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Hash on June 07, 2008, 04:58:17 PM
The Republican congressional challengers are hilarious.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on June 07, 2008, 06:50:13 PM
This thread makes Washington politics seem like the funniest thing since the Three Stooges.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 07, 2008, 10:12:38 PM
Didn't notice this before - Ruth Bennett, the LP's 2004 nominee for Governor, is in a one-on-one race with an incumbent Democratic House member. She'll be lucky to break 10%

So we have a D v. G, a D v. L  and two D v. I races for State House, and a D v. I race for State Senate. We won't know about quite a few D v. D and R v. R races until the August primary, but several appear likely in addition to the 5 that are assured (5 Republicans for the House in District 7, 2 Republicans for the House in District 8, 3 Democrats for the Senate in District 11, 2 Democrats for the Senate in District 22, and 2 Democrats for the House in District 32).

8 Senators are unopposed for re-election, as are 19 Representatives, which I'm actually pretty sure is down from last year.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 07, 2008, 11:54:15 PM
Every election should be D vs. G!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Kevinstat on June 08, 2008, 02:18:45 PM
Does Washington have any two-winner elections?  And how will those work.  In Nebraska's nonpartisan races which have "top two" primaries, if x candidates are to be elected in the general election, the top 2x candidates in the primary advance to the general election ballot.

I know the two state Representatives elected from each State Legislative District in Washington are elected in separate contests, but there may be some two-winner contests for other offices.  There are in Maine for county charter commissions (those elections are nonpartisan, with no primary or party designations listed) when they are on the ballot, with two charter commissioners elected from each county commissioner district conditional on the concurrent referendum approving the formation of the commission passing (it usually doesn't).  Only one county, Aroostook, has adopted a charter I believe, although Knox County does have an elected Budget Committee unlike all other counties (Aroostook County has an elected Finance Committee) so perhaps they have a charter as well.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 08, 2008, 03:25:17 PM
Does Washington have any two-winner elections?  And how will those work.  In Nebraska's nonpartisan races which have "top two" primaries, if x candidates are to be elected in the general election, the top 2x candidates in the primary advance to the general election ballot.

I know the two state Representatives elected from each State Legislative District in Washington are elected in separate contests, but there may be some two-winner contests for other offices.  There are in Maine for county charter commissions (those elections are nonpartisan, with no primary or party designations listed) when they are on the ballot, with two charter commissioners elected from each county commissioner district conditional on the concurrent referendum approving the formation of the commission passing (it usually doesn't).  Only one county, Aroostook, has adopted a charter I believe, although Knox County does have an elected Budget Committee unlike all other counties (Aroostook County has an elected Finance Committee) so perhaps they have a charter as well.

I'm not aware of any. There are some counties that have adopted their own charter so their elections will differ from most counties and might not even use top-two (see Pierce County), but even in those counties I can't think of any office with two winners.

Speaking of Pierce County, the Assessor-Treasurer race has six candidates with fairly good name recognition countywide and voters are only allowed to rank three. I have a great suspicion that thousands of voters are going to exhaust their three choices before we have a winner... at which point all hell breaks loose. Can you feel the impending disaster?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 08, 2008, 04:24:17 PM
More statistics about why this system sucks:

- In 92 out of the 124 races (74%) on the ballot, there is only one or two candidates on the ballot. So the primary is meaningless, but we're still going to spend money and time on it.

- There are 207 candidates for the Legislature this year, as opposed to 233 in 2006. So we get fewer choices.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on June 08, 2008, 06:46:12 PM
More statistics about why this system sucks:

- In 92 out of the 124 races (74%) on the ballot, there is only one or two candidates on the ballot. So the primary is meaningless, but we're still going to spend money and time on it.

- There are 207 candidates for the Legislature this year, as opposed to 233 in 2006. So we get fewer choices.

How many races were there in 2006? There are going to be flaws in the first year of this system. People will get used to it and then elections will become interesting.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 08, 2008, 09:06:30 PM
More statistics about why this system sucks:

- In 92 out of the 124 races (74%) on the ballot, there is only one or two candidates on the ballot. So the primary is meaningless, but we're still going to spend money and time on it.

- There are 207 candidates for the Legislature this year, as opposed to 233 in 2006. So we get fewer choices.

How many races were there in 2006? There are going to be flaws in the first year of this system. People will get used to it and then elections will become interesting.

The same number of races.

There are always going to be flaws in this system. It sucks.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on June 08, 2008, 09:26:01 PM
anyone have any comments or knowledge on the 35th LD house race? I want to know a little bit more and also see if anyone thinks it could turn into a D vs D race after the primary...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 08, 2008, 09:46:26 PM
My Chem teacher is good friends with one of the candidates, says he's a good guy. I highly doubt it'll turn D v. D, but Washington voters are weird and at this point I wouldn't put it past them. Who knows, it may become very common for single-party generals in relatively competitive districts depending on the candidates. We just won't know until we've gone through it at least once.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: jimrtex on June 09, 2008, 10:41:29 PM
More statistics about why this system sucks:

- In 92 out of the 124 races (74%) on the ballot, there is only one or two candidates on the ballot. So the primary is meaningless, but we're still going to spend money and time on it.

- There are 207 candidates for the Legislature this year, as opposed to 233 in 2006. So we get fewer choices.

How many races were there in 2006? There are going to be flaws in the first year of this system. People will get used to it and then elections will become interesting.
Actually there are 274 candidates this year, including 13 independent or 3rd party candidates.   In 2006, there was a single 3rd party candidate.

In 2006, there were 65 D v. R races where the primary was meaningless, and 21 D and 14 R races where both the primary and general were meaningless.  There were also 1 D v D primary, and 1 R v R primary where the primary was decisive.

In 2008, there are 57 D v. R races and 5 D vs. independent/3rd where the primary is redundant*, and
18 D and 9 R races where the primary and general are meaningless*.  In 2008, there are 2 D v D races, and 1 races with 3 D's only, and 1 race with 5 R's only.  In 2006, these would have been decided in the primary, but in 2008 they will be open to all voters without having to deliberately cross over.

So the number of races that were somewhat degenerate in form has dropped from 102/124 (82%) to 89/126 (72%).  Because there are an odd number of LD/senate seats, one election always has one more race, and there is also a special election for the remaining 2 years of the LD 34 senate seat.

* Washington has a formal system of write-in candidacies, and counting write-in votes, but does require a candidate to have 1% of the vote to advance to the general election.  A write-in candidate can actually declare his party preference, and if he does finish in the Top 2 and receive 1% of the vote, that preference will be shown on the general election ballot.  Given that many voters will skip a race with an unopposed candidate, someone with a minimally organized write-in campaign could secure a place on the general election ballot, which would make the general election an actual contest.

It is quite possible that there will be more participation in the primary by independent and non-partisan voters.  While in the past these voters could participate, they may have been more reluctant to interfere in what was formally a partisan primary.

There will always be many legislative seats that are uncontested because they are held by an incumbent.  The voters already elected them once, and unless the voters decide they made a mistake there is really no recent to expect a different result, and it costs money to run a political campaign, and even more for a successful one.  If a seat is open due to retirement or term limits, it will attract a bunch of people who see an opportunity.  But afterwards, the challengers may be more lackluster.

Washington's system of two representatives per LD, but separate positions may also reduce the number of contested elections.  It appears that it is fairly common practice for one party to contest only one position in a LD.  There are a certain share of voters who will deliberately split their vote.  If they are forced to vote for a D in one position, they pay pick the R in the other position to balance their vote.  If they had to choose between a D and R for both positions, they might still split their vote, but these ticket-splitter might not do so in a consistent fashion, which will simply result in a more dominant party sweeping the election.  In 2006, 14 of 49 LD's had that pattern.  In 2008, there are only 6 such candidates.

Of course it is possible that some of the additional candidates are attracted by the novelty of the system, and may not be serious candidates.  This may include candidates who filed with a preference for the Republican or Democratic party, but who did not have much connection to the formal party.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 09, 2008, 11:44:28 PM
Jim, I'm convinced.  You are a robot.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 10, 2008, 12:00:04 AM
Yea, I can't compete with that.

System still sucks though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on June 10, 2008, 12:17:11 AM
More statistics about why this system sucks:

- In 92 out of the 124 races (74%) on the ballot, there is only one or two candidates on the ballot. So the primary is meaningless, but we're still going to spend money and time on it.

- There are 207 candidates for the Legislature this year, as opposed to 233 in 2006. So we get fewer choices.

How many races were there in 2006? There are going to be flaws in the first year of this system. People will get used to it and then elections will become interesting.

The same number of races.

There are always going to be flaws in this system. It sucks.

Perhaps eliminate the primary unless more than two candidates are running?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: HardRCafé on June 10, 2008, 04:57:47 AM
Considering that the Constitution Party has been basically non-existent in the state for many years now, it's an impressive turnaround on their part.

As much as I would like to forget the Craswells, it is a stretch to say the Constitution Party has been basically non-existent in Washington of all states.

I wish Osgood were worth endorsing.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 10, 2008, 06:27:54 AM
Considering that the Constitution Party has been basically non-existent in the state for many years now, it's an impressive turnaround on their part.

As much as I would like to forget the Craswells, it is a stretch to say the Constitution Party has been basically non-existent in Washington of all states.

I wish Osgood were worth endorsing.

Craswells haven't said anything in years - they keep to themselves and won't do any media interviews.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 13, 2008, 04:51:36 PM
So, can this just turn into our general Washington discussion thread? :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 13, 2008, 04:54:02 PM
So, can this just turn into our general Washington discussion thread? :)

Aye. We have enough Washingtonians around to warrant one.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 13, 2008, 06:06:53 PM
Randy Dorn was just endorsed by the Washington Democrats for Superintendent. Color me a little surprised.

Perhaps a little amusingly, I was talking to the closest thing that the Washington Democrats have to a party elder the other day and he said that Booth Gardner was seriously considering running for Superintendent.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 13, 2008, 06:40:45 PM
Randy Dorn was just endorsed by the Washington Democrats for Superintendent. Color me a little surprised.

Perhaps a little amusingly, I was talking to the closest thing that the Washington Democrats have to a party elder the other day and he said that Booth Gardner was seriously considering running for Superintendent.

Running for attorney general would've been more helpful...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Kevinstat on June 13, 2008, 09:04:09 PM
Perhaps eliminate the primary unless more than two candidates are running?

The one problem with that is that the system would be disjoint if that were done but voters could still vote for write-in candidates in races with a primary, and (while they possibly could have; I've heard Hawaii has no write-in candidate option for at least many of its elections, not just runoffs) the Grangers might not have wanted to bar write-in candidates from running, particularly in races where only one candidate was on the primary ballot.  Can a write-in candidate in an otherwise one-candidate primary get on the general election ballot if they get enough votes?  Is there a minimal number of votes for each office that a write-in candidate needs to get on the general election ballot (provided of course they are among the top two candidates in the primary)?  I imagine it isn't simply 1 vote for all offices.  If that were the case in Maine the Maine Green Indepdendent Party might actually field candidates in all "top ticket" races (for Governor where they always field a candidate, and for U.S. Senate and Congress where they never have fielded an official party candidate although they tried to for the Senate 1996 when they were an official party but that guy had to run as an Independent because not enough voter enrollments had been successfully done), plus a majority of Legislative races instead of the 10 or 13 respectively of 186 they ran candidates in 2006 and are doing this time.  A Republican write-in candidate tried to get on the ballot for state Representative but I've heard he got only 33 write-in votes where 50 were needed, so the Democratic incumbent in that race will be unopposed in November as will 6 other incumbent House Democrats and one Democratic Senator (the former 19-year State House Speaker) who is trading seats with the incumbent State Representative.  One incumbent Republican Representative is unopposed, one incumbent Independent Representative (a former Democrat) who seems rather cozy with the Republicans now has only a Democratic opponent, one incumbent Democratic Representative who replaced a resigned Republican in a special election last November has two Independent opponents but no Republican opponent, and one incumbent Democratic Representative has only a Green Independent opponent.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on June 14, 2008, 03:45:13 PM
What do people think of Ladenburg's chances in the Attorney General race, or for Burner in the 8th?  I plan to vote for Ladenburg (and don't live in Burner's district) but frankly I am skeptical about their chances.

I could not bring myself to vote for Deborah Senn in 2004.  She was a bad candidate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 14, 2008, 05:49:35 PM
Beating McKenna will be tough, but Lautenberg is a smart campaigner and will do what's necessary to win. That's going to be the closest statewide race this year.

Burner will win this time around. They've learned from last time, and the extra help from Obama should be enough to push her over.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 14, 2008, 06:02:53 PM
In a not so shocking move, Jim McIntire was just endorsed for State Treasurer at the Democratic Convention.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 14, 2008, 06:18:14 PM
Idiots.

The Washington State Democratic Party is lucky that the only other state party more retarded than them happens to be the Washington State Republican Party.

Oh, and Lautenburg will lose.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 14, 2008, 06:57:27 PM
Idiots.

The Washington State Democratic Party is lucky that the only other state party more retarded than them happens to be the Washington State Republican Party.

Oh, and Lautenburg will lose.

That's the spirit! :D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 14, 2008, 07:21:07 PM
The Democratic Party just perplexes me with some of their candidates. Sometimes it seems like they want to lose.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 14, 2008, 07:26:59 PM
Bah...I liked the Korean dude a lot more.  Looks like I'm voting for Martin.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 14, 2008, 07:27:10 PM
The Washington Democratic Party can probably best be described IMO as a herd of cats. The vast majority of the party activists are cats. They may have good intentions, but they lack long term vision or understanding. They're also just sort of weird and don't fully how things work in the world.

Then there's a group that herds them. They understand what is necessary to win, how it is to be done, and do the grunt work necessary to pull of victories. They also feel like they are constantly surrounded by idiots that they must humor.

Unfortunately, the cats are so numerous they sometimes win out.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 14, 2008, 07:29:00 PM
Bah...I liked the Korean dude a lot more.  Looks like I'm voting for Martin.

McIntire isn't on the ballot yet! I'm still voting for Sohn in the primary.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 14, 2008, 07:31:02 PM
Bah...I liked the Korean dude a lot more.  Looks like I'm voting for Martin.

McIntire isn't on the ballot yet! I'm still voting for Sohn in the primary.

Yea, Sohn could still make it. The voters of Washington have a long and wonderful record of telling the state parties to f**ck off.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 14, 2008, 07:35:16 PM
Apparently Sohn wasn't even at the convention. He probably knew what was up.

Sohn is leading in fundraising though, so he's still got a shot (Mark Dayton anyone?)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 14, 2008, 07:36:23 PM
Bah...I liked the Korean dude a lot more.  Looks like I'm voting for Martin.

McIntire isn't on the ballot yet! I'm still voting for Sohn in the primary.

Yea, Sohn could still make it. The voters of Washington have a long and wonderful record of telling the state parties to f**ck off.

I sure hope so.

Once Martin is elected, he has that seat for life. He's like McKenna--the type of Republican who, once established, will be able to win other statewide offices like Senator or Governor.

The Democrats have (or had...) an opportunity to stop him in the infancy of his political career. Now they may have to face his wrath in the future.

Martin is dangerous and must be destroyed now or never.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: jimrtex on June 15, 2008, 01:57:44 PM
Washington has a fairly formal system for handling write-in votes.  Since most voters vote by mail, it is relatively easy to cast a write-in vote (it's also not like you are standing in a voting booth after standing in line for 15 minutes, and trying to figure how to do a write-in on a voting machine).  On the other hand, because many people vote early, they may not be aware that anyone is running as a write-in candidate.

In 1994, Linda Smith won the GOP nomination for Congress, and then went on to be elected.  The original GOP candidate had informally dropped out.  She also had been a state senator and been involved in several initiative petition drives.  She sent out mail to everyone in the district explaining how to do a write-in vote.   The election was done under the blanket primary system, where both Democratic and Republican nominations were on the same ballot.  In each race, voters could vote for any candidate, but the winners were determined on a party basis.  So a Democratic voter might decide to vote for a Republican candidate.  This could be either because they wanted that person to be elected, or because they wanted that candidate to be the Republican nominee, or because they wanted a candidate that they perceived as being weaker to be nominated, or perhaps simply because there was a choice on the Republican side, and only one candidate on the Democratic side who was sure to be nominated.  Since there wasn't a Democratic race for the nomination, some people may have voted for her because of the novelty of write-in voting.

In Washington, write-in candidates may declare they are running for office.  The total number of write-in votes is counted, but they are not counted for individuals unless there is a possibility of it changing the result, either by causing a write-in candidate to be nominated or elected; or by causing a result change among those who are on the ballot.  This would include overvotes, undervotes, and write-ins of the following form:

[X] John Smith
[X] Write-in John Smith

[ ] John Smith
[X] Write-in John Smith

[ ] John Smith
[ ] Write-in John Smith

all of which are valid votes for John Smith, but not machine-countable.

In Washington, originally the blanket primary was only used for the Republican and Democratic (or any other major parties) primaries.  Candidates of 3rd parties and independents would be direcly by party conventions or petition, and then have their name placed on the general election ballot.  Around 1970, a satirical party nominated a slate of candidates and received about 3% of the vote.  After that, the legislature required that nominees of 3rd parties and independents appear on the primary ballot, and that they receive 1% of the vote in order to appear on the general election ballot.  So on each office, a voter could participate in the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or support the nomination of a 3rd party or independent candidate.  Since voters may tend to choose a race where they think there is meaningful choice, they may skip over the 3rd party nominees.  It might be hard to get supporters of a 3rd party to vote, simply to rubberstamp the nominations.

After the blanket primary was ruled unconstitutional, Washington switched to a Pick a Party Primary, where a voter receives a ballot similar to the the blanket party ballot with all (major) party candidates on the ballot.  But a voter had to mark on the ballot which party he was voting for.  Only votes for that party's candidates would then be counted.  In effect, a voter had to choose which party he was a member of, but that would then be a secret choice.  The Pick a Party Primary included a 1% provision, and this would be a challenge for the Libertarian Party, which briefly became a major party.  Since they had few contested nominations, voters might not pick their primary to vote in.  In 2004, they did have a contest gubernatorial nomination and this may have attracted enough voters to the Libertarian primary to secure a place on the general election for the statewide candidates.

When the Grange filed their initiative for the Top 2 primary, it was based on the law for the blanket primary, which was still being appealed before the 9th Circuit.  It retained a 1% provision for advancing to the general election.  It also specified that two candidates advance to the general election.  This was done for at least two reasons.  The Grange was trying to preserve the form of the blanket primary, as much as possible, and had generally produced two nominees, one Republican and one Democrat, for the previous 60+ years.  In addition, the US Supreme Court, in overturning the blanket primary in California, had suggested that a non-partisan primary in which the field was winnowed to 2 (or some other number) of candidates would be constitutional - since that would removed the unconstitutional feature of the blanket primary, where Democrats could participate in the nomination of the Republican candidates and vice versa.

The provision for two candidates advancing to the general election. along with write-in voting (and formal write-in candidates) means that there is the possibility in races where only one candidate filed for the primary ballot, the two candidates might be on the general election ballot.  The write-in challenger would need to get 1% of the votes in the race.  Since many voters will skip a race with a single candidate, especially if that candidate had expressed a preference for a party they did not care for, the 1% threshold will be an even smaller share of those who voted in the primary.  In a legislative race this might means 100 or 200 write-in votes could secure a place on the general election ballot for a write-in candidate who was somewhat organized.  It will also probably require hand counting of all ballots in those races where only a single candidate filed, since it is possible that 20 to 40% of the ballots skipped the races, and would have to be examined to make sure nobody wrote in a name.

The rules that the Secretary of State promulgated for the Top 2 primary do recognize the possibility of write-in candidates.  A declared write-in candidate may indicate a party preference, and if he advances to the general election, his preference will appear on the general election ballot.  In addition, a write-in vote for such a candidate is not required to include the party preference of a candidate to be valid.

Write-ins and write-in candidates are also possible in the general election.  However, a candidate that was eliminated in the primary, whether they were on the ballot or a declared write-in candidate, may not be a declared write-in candidate in the general election, and any casual write-in votes for such persons are void.

Washington also has true non-partisan elections.  These are used for judges and also the Superintendent of Public Instruction.  In these races, there is no party designation on the ballot, and any voter may vote.  Further, if a candidate receives a majority of the vote in the primary (held in the same election as the partisan primary), they are elected in the primary.  Otherwise the top two advance to the general election for a runoff.  Parties do endorse candidates in the non-partisan elections.

Hawaii does not have write-in voting.  This was challenged before the US Supreme Court, which essentially ruled that write-in voting is an essential part of voting in the US, but that Hawaii's electoral system provided a functional equivalent.  Elections in the United States were originally entirely write-in.  Voters would write the name of their favored candidate on a piece of paper and drop it in the election box (or in some cases vote in public or by voice).  Parties could still endorse candidates, but these were more like suggestions.  As a convenience to their partisans, parties would provide pre-printed ballots, though voters could cross out certain candidates or write an alternative name in.

In the early 1900s, the Australian ballot came into use, and quickly became universal.  An Australian ballot is printed by the election officials and includes all the candidates running for office.  It provides better ballot secrecy, makes it easier for a voter too choose among parties, and makes ballot stuffing harder.  But since write-ins were always a part of the election process they were permitted on the Australian ballots.  Later, the introduction of voting machines made it harder to cast a write-in vote, but it never became impossible.

In Hawaii, there is no write-in voting, but it has a late primary (September), has very minimal ballot access requirements for the primary, and all candidates including independents appear on the primary ballot, which is a pick a party format.  If an independent candidate receives 10% of the total vote, or if the leading independent candidate outpolls the nominee of any party, his name will be on the general election ballot.  Since very few voters participate in the 3rd party primaries, this latter standard is easy to surpass.

The Supreme Court ruled that in Hawaii since someone can get on the ballot with little effort, fairly close to the general election, that there was no reason to require write-in voting, especially given that they would require more effort by the voters.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 18, 2008, 01:02:15 PM
Fun in the 46th District!

()

PolitickerWA:

Quote
The 46th Legislative District's race to succeed Rep. Jim McIntire for state representative in Position 1 has been no stranger to controversy this spring. There is a debate over who actually won the district line from the precinct committee, and now the two leading Democratic candidates are arguing over whether one of them is even in the race anymore.

On the afternoon of Friday, June 13, Erica C. Barnett at The Stranger reported that Scott White, a leading candidate, had withdrawn from the race upon receiving the news that he had come down with a case of pneumonia.

That Friday, White attempted to withdraw his withdrawal, and when he spoke with PolitickerWA.com White reiterated that he was still in the race, and even touted the sole endorsements of both the Washington Education Association and the Washington Conservation Voters, two highly influential interest groups in the Seattle area. White acknowledged that he had come down with a terrible illness, which he recently found out was walking pneumonia, and in the heat of his suffering felt that he would not be able to campaign for too long a time.

But the question remained, since the report came a day after Thursday's withdrawal deadleine, and was still not fully substantiated (despite this image of the King County elections website obtained by The Stranger), what did White do and when did he do it?

Back on May 15 the 46th LD Democrats held a meeting of Precinct Committee Officers to select an official nominee for the district in line with rules the state party instituted upon passage of the "top two" primary. Gerry Pollet won the nomination in a close vote of weighted PCOs, yet later that night Scott White claimed, both on his website and in an e-mail to PolitickerWA.com, that a misplaced ballot was found, thus handing the nomination to him. Regardless, Pollet, who had an uncounted ballot of his own that was disqualified for being written on the wrong colored piece of paper, remained the nominee.

Despite the nomination loss, White maintained a substantial lead in all of the normal electoral metrics. As of the end of May he had outraised Pollet $49,000 to $23,000 and, despite having greatly outspent Pollet, still held a $4,000 cash on hand advantage. White also had the endorsements of nearly every elected official in the greater Seattle area including the full 46th District delegation. This all made it so much of a surprise that White had apparently withdrawn.

Upon hearing the news, Pollet came to the conclusion that if White had truly withdrawn, state law would not allow him to "un-withdraw" pursuant to state election statute RCW 29A.24.131. It states, "No filing fee may be refunded to any candidate who withdraws under this section," and the law is otherwise very clear that upon submission of a filing withdrawal, a candidate submits his or her filing fee.

So it would seem that if White had formally submitted a withdrawal form, he would be forfeiting his filing fee and, since the filing deadline had passed nearly a week ago, would be unable to regain entry to the ballot.

On Monday, upon returning home from the state Democratic Party convention, Pollet submitted a public records request to King County Elections asking for any documents submitted by White pertaining to a withdrawal of his candidacy.

King County provided a fax from White on Tuesday afternoon, which was obtained by PolitickerWA.com. Although the fax has a hand written note on it saying "late withdrawal", the time stamp at the top of the fax clearly shows that it was sent on Thursday at 13:29, prior to the Thursday afternoon deadline imposed by the Secretary of State's office and King County.

Adding further intrigue to the story is the fact that the fax number the document was sent from is the fax number for the office of King County Executive, where White works as a Special Projects Manager. Sending faxes for political means from a King County office is a clear violation of ethics.

Pollet has requested that White be removed from the ballot in accordance with what he says are election laws that preclude White from withdrawing his withdrawal. Given the overwhelming Democratic slant of the 46th District, such a move would all but hand him a seat in the legislature.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on June 18, 2008, 01:49:35 PM
Washington is weird.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on June 19, 2008, 10:26:07 PM

That's why we love it!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 21, 2008, 02:34:38 PM
So Reichert is leading Burner 51-45 in a SUSA poll.

What a shocker! Ugh, I hate the Washington State Democratic Party. What is with their fetish for the worst possible candidates?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 21, 2008, 11:38:42 PM
Rodney Tom wouldn't've been polling any better...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 21, 2008, 11:45:25 PM
Rodney Tom wouldn't've been polling any better...

Yeah right. An old school Republican, who, after seeing his party taken over by religious fascists, switched parties to the one that best fit him in the 21st century. Sounds a lot like the 8th congressional district to me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 21, 2008, 11:48:27 PM
Rodney Tom wouldn't've been polling any better...

Yeah right. An old school Republican, who, after seeing his party taken over by religious fascists, switched parties to the one that best fit him in the 21st century. Sounds a lot like the 8th congressional district to me.

Ah yes, we all know how well Medina realtors who drive Mercedes connect to folks in Eastern Pierce County. Tom's name recognition also would've taken work, and he would've lost some women to Reichert.

And the only reason Tom became a Democrat is that he wanted to be a Senator.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on June 22, 2008, 01:39:30 AM
I think Darcy Burner is a great candidate, but she really hasn't been doing much campaigning. She needs to start stepping it up!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 24, 2008, 10:33:41 AM
Here's something a little curious. In the Insurance Commissioner race, the Spokane County Republican Party Chair filed... but as "States No Party Preference". I have no idea who the hell the Republican that's running is, but Fackler may make it to the general if he gets the word out.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on June 24, 2008, 09:31:37 PM
Here's something a little curious. In the Insurance Commissioner race, the Spokane County Republican Party Chair filed... but as "States No Party Preference". I have no idea who the hell the Republican that's running is, but Fackler may make it to the general if he gets the word out.

He could be protesting the new primary system, which the parties hate with a passion.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 29, 2008, 02:39:48 AM
http://youtube.com/watch?v=AH2tUr8Xzaw


Well, I'm supporting Reichert now!!!!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Rev. Matthew on June 29, 2008, 02:57:34 AM
Darcy supports terrorism? I didn't know!~


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 30, 2008, 03:40:38 PM
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/368912_kingco30.html

Phillips vs. Sims for county executive next year? Sounds interesting.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 01, 2008, 04:32:02 PM
Darcy Burner's house was completely destroyed in a fire this morning. :(

Fortunately the entire family, including the puppy, made it out OK.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 01, 2008, 04:54:21 PM
http://soundpolitics.com/archives/011010.html

I wonder when they'll start blaming Republicans.

*laughs*


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 11, 2008, 01:07:49 AM
I was reading on HorsesAss about "Don't Let Seattle Steal This Election" signs with "Dino Rossi for Governor" on them in Eastern Washington.

Disgusting. Reminds me why I refuse to vote for the Repulsive Party.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: MarkWarner08 on July 11, 2008, 02:01:46 PM
I was reading on HorsesAss about "Don't Let Seattle Steal This Election" signs with "Dino Rossi for Governor" on them in Eastern Washington.

Disgusting. Reminds me why I refuse to vote for the Repulsive Party.
That reminds me of the RNC's '06 MO "zip code ad."  It's easy to forget that regionalism can be a potent tool in elections.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 18, 2008, 11:43:51 AM
()

Most campaigns try to avoid photos like this. But not Dino!


This thread has been very quiet, which is quite upsetting. Updates coming soon include:

- An engaged couple running against each other for State Legislature
- The Commissioner of Public Lands fondles an employees breast... and none of the papers cover it
- A top recruit of the House Republicans who thinks that global warming "may be a good thing... I like a warmer climate"
- Much, much more!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on July 18, 2008, 01:23:29 PM
()

Most campaigns try to avoid photos like this. But not Dino!


This thread has been very quiet, which is quite upsetting. Updates coming soon include:

- An engaged couple running against each other for State Legislature
- The Commissioner of Public Lands fondles an employees breast... and none of the papers cover it
- A top recruit of the House Republicans who thinks that global warming "may be a good thing... I like a warmer climate"
- Much, much more!

Fun!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on August 01, 2008, 04:40:22 PM
It's August with 19 days until the primary. What shall we expect in the next 3 weeks?

Also, which races will be one-party or involve a third party at the GE level in your opinion?



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 01, 2008, 05:00:20 PM
Also, which races will be one-party or involve a third party at the GE level in your opinion?

Only statewide office with any real potential of this is State Treasurer, and it won't happen.  WA-7 has been mentioned too, but none of the non-McDermotts are enough to block the reflexive GOP vote for Steve Baren.

Other than that, no Republican has filed for:

- District 1 (Pos. 1 & 2) [Bothell-S Snohomish County]
- District 19 (all seats) [Aberdeen-Kelso/Longview]
- District 22 (Pos. 1) [Olympia]
- District 24 (Senate) [Olympic Peninsula]
- District 28 (Pos. 2) [University Place-DuPont]
- District 32 (Pos. 2) [North Lake Washington-Woodway]
- District 34 (all seats) [West Seattle-Vashon]
- District 37 (Pos. 1) [East Seattle]
- District 38 (Pos. 2) [Tulalip-Everett]
- District 40 (Pos. 1) [San Juans-Bellingham]
- District 41 (Pos. 2) [Bellevue-Issaquah]
- District 43 (Pos. 1) [Central Seattle]
- District 49 (Senate) [Vancouver]

Total: 18

Assuming we're counting Rep. Brendan Williams filing as "Progressive Dem. Party" as Democrat.

And no Democrat filed for:

- District 7 (Pos. 2) [NE Wash.]
- District 9 (Senate) [SE Wash.]
- District 12 (all seats) [N-Central Wash.]
- District 13 (both seats) [Ellensburg-Moses Lake]
- District 14 (Senate) [Yakima West]
- District 16 (Senate) [Pasco-Walla Walla]

Total: 9

District 40 Pos. 2 will be Democrat vs. Green.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 01, 2008, 05:11:50 PM
There are also several districts with both Democrats and Republicans who have filed that only members of one party are likely to make it to the general (the 8th, 14th, 20th, 35th and 36th all come to mind).

For it to happen in the Treasurer's race it would require a perfect storm of Democratic loyalists sticking to McIntire, Independent Democrats and Independents moving towards Sohn, and also very low Republican turnout. That actually sounds kind of like what's happening, but the chances are still very low. I'm a little more hopeful than Alcon though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 01, 2008, 05:21:35 PM
Allan's endorsed by Murphy...I see him getting more cross-over mostly by virtue of that.  Not that Republicans probably pay much attention to that race.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 01, 2008, 10:27:47 PM
One of the GOP candidates for State Rep. in my district lists his occupation, unironically, as "Tetris player."

The other seat's candidate (who will advance) is running on an anti-communism platform...again.

Don't you just love the WA GOP?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 01, 2008, 11:19:49 PM
Allan's endorsed by Murphy...I see him getting more cross-over mostly by virtue of that.  Not that Republicans probably pay much attention to that race.

Yea, Martin putting that in his voters pamphlet (which is where the vast majority of voters will make their decision) was a smart move. The only real way is if Democratic base and Independents split just right and, again, if there's really low Republican turnout.

And you're aware of the "interesting" situation involving the two running against Flannigan, right?

I also didn't know you were on a first name basis with the Republican nominee for State Treasurer :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 02, 2008, 11:56:15 PM
Yea, Martin putting that in his voters pamphlet (which is where the vast majority of voters will make their decision) was a smart move. The only real way is if Democratic base and Independents split just right and, again, if there's really low Republican turnout.

And you're aware of the "interesting" situation involving the two running against Flannigan, right?

I also didn't know you were on a first name basis with the Republican nominee for State Treasurer :P

Oops, haha.  I have no idea where that came from.  Martin.

But, yeah, that's fun to follow.  Honestly the guy seems a little nutso, although I don't know him.  You probably might ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 03, 2008, 02:07:22 AM
Oops, haha.  I have no idea where that came from.  Martin.

But, yeah, that's fun to follow.  Honestly the guy seems a little nutso, although I don't know him.  You probably might ;)

The guy's statement in the Voters' Guide was written solely to draw as many Republican votes away as possible. They figured he could do it by sounding as conservative as possible, but he just sort of came off sounding crazy. I would've gone about it in a different way, but whatever. He's perfectly sane (and liberal) in real life.

Smeall didn't even show up to the 27th LD endorsements meeting. She works at a Summer Camp on the Key Penninsula and thus has very little time to actually campaign (probably why she wasn't at the LD meeting as well). She's basically clueless.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 03, 2008, 11:05:00 AM
I actually assumed he was crazy because of the letter he sent to Dale Woodard (http://www.thenewstribune.com/news/columnists/callaghan/story/392705.html). 

So, the guy isn't actually a McCain supporter?  Now I'm really confused.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 03, 2008, 11:57:02 AM
I actually assumed he was crazy because of the letter he sent to Dale Woodard (http://www.thenewstribune.com/news/columnists/callaghan/story/392705.html). 

So, the guy isn't actually a McCain supporter?  Now I'm really confused.

Yea, I don't quite understand why they were trying to knock Woodard out of the race. It seems like having him would split the Republican base and make it easier for Smeall to advance to the general.

But no, he's not a McCain supporter. He's listed as a Likely Democrat in our database.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 03, 2008, 12:03:29 PM
I actually assumed he was crazy because of the letter he sent to Dale Woodard (http://www.thenewstribune.com/news/columnists/callaghan/story/392705.html). 

So, the guy isn't actually a McCain supporter?  Now I'm really confused.

Yea, I don't quite understand why they were trying to knock Woodard out of the race. It seems like having him would split the Republican base and make it easier for Smeall to advance to the general.

But no, he's not a McCain supporter. He's listed as a Likely Democrat in our database.

Yeah, he voted D in the primary (hence the Likely D designation - it's the only thing causing that), but all of his ballot statements go on about "McCain, Rossi, Wiley for a better future!"  He totally has me confused.

Unless he went to the caucus and really wanted to vote in the advisory primary (and legally), it don't make much sense to me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 03, 2008, 05:41:51 PM
I actually assumed he was crazy because of the letter he sent to Dale Woodard (http://www.thenewstribune.com/news/columnists/callaghan/story/392705.html). 

So, the guy isn't actually a McCain supporter?  Now I'm really confused.

Yea, I don't quite understand why they were trying to knock Woodard out of the race. It seems like having him would split the Republican base and make it easier for Smeall to advance to the general.

But no, he's not a McCain supporter. He's listed as a Likely Democrat in our database.

Yeah, he voted D in the primary (hence the Likely D designation - it's the only thing causing that), but all of his ballot statements go on about "McCain, Rossi, Wiley for a better future!"  He totally has me confused.

Unless he went to the caucus and really wanted to vote in the advisory primary (and legally), it don't make much sense to me.

He's only pretending to be a Republican so he can sap votes from Woodard, thus causing Smeall to make it November with Flannigan. It's all a ploy.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 04, 2008, 08:02:45 PM
I got my ballot today. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 04, 2008, 11:49:54 PM

Who're you voting for SPI?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 05, 2008, 12:19:48 AM
I got my ballot guide today (and voter registration card -- again?  whatever).  I realized that the only race I genuinely care about is having Sohn beat McIntire.  Otherwise, this is all just advisory crap.  I'm thinking I just may vote for my favorite kook in all of the other races.

If WA-27 was competitive, I'd vote Woodard...but it's not, and D vs. D would just be so funny.  Maybe I should vote Smeall just for the hilarious remote chance?  Who's with me?!

Definitely vote for Smeall. I just talked to her today and she's very excited. She's also the only non-crazy sounding candidate in the TNT's questionnaire.

I think I mentioned this before, but I grow more confident that Sohn will win everyday. McIntire's people are going bezerk, and McIntire himself is getting pretty pissed off.

Make sure to vote in SPI though, that's a very important contest. And the Judicial races will be decided in the primary.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 05, 2008, 12:47:02 AM
I'm thinking I'll vote Dorn for SPI... Not positive though.

I saw some Sohn signs today between Woodinville and Redmond. :) I also read that Sohn has raised the most money of any of the three candidates.

I'm almost definitely voting Fairhurst for Supreme Court... Not sure what to do about the other the SC race. :\


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 05, 2008, 01:02:58 AM
Bergeson isn't as evil as some (including Otherphil) make her out to be. She's made some mistakes and we've got quite a few problems still to solve, but everything Dorn is saying he wants to change is basically already being worked on by Bergeson's office.

The local candidate for State Senate is a public school teacher and knows more about our school system than anyone I've ever met. She says that on a 1-10 scale of awfulness Bergeson is a 9.5 and Dorn is an 8. She wanted Semler until he dropped out.

I passively favor Dorn, and would suggest voting for him if only to keep Bergeson under 50% and thus send them both to the general where you would then have more time to think.

Sohn has signs up all over the state, and he's been getting some surprising support from within the party that I wouldn't have expected even a couple of weeks ago. I'm pretty sure my LD is going to endorse him this Thursday. I also learned the other day that the reason he didn't attend the State Convention was because a family member was sick, so the anger at him from within the party from "blowing them off" is really quite unfounded.

Fairhurst is wonderful and absolutely deserves re-election. Johnson isn't wonderful but he's better than the other two.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 05, 2008, 01:37:38 AM
Another random suggestion to Alcon: Vote for Richmond. He's been working hardest of all the candidates and deserves to be in the general.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 06, 2008, 12:59:07 AM
Goldmark is outstanding. I had a chance to talk with him at a Conservation Voters meeting, and I've never meet anyone who knows more about land conservation and development. Besides, Sutherland is an idiot who knows nothing about our environment, is in bed with the timber companies, and fondles his employees breasts.

If you're looking for a crazy to vote for in the SPI race, pick Hansler. I met him at the 27th LD meeting (which shows he's actually trying unlike the others) and he gave me a copy of his book "Purls of Wisdom". It's about 70 two page essays about his views on things, including how AIDS can be spread like influenza and how there are two types of X genes - the talking gene and the shopping gene - which explains why girls are the way they are.

He's a winner.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 07, 2008, 12:16:24 AM
Bergeson scored the endorsement of the Washington State Labor Council, AFL-CIO. Major coup.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 07, 2008, 05:21:28 PM
I just read Rossi's statement in the voter's pamphlet. I was honestly a little nervous at first that it might be something good, but now I'm wondering how the heck this guy isn't trailing by 20 points.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 08, 2008, 10:36:01 AM
Preliminary data I'm seeing says that Democratic turnout is much, much higher than Republican.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on August 09, 2008, 11:12:30 AM
A question for Washington residents:

What are the prospects for Sound Transit 2 (http://www.future.soundtransit.org/) passing muster with voters this November?  Do you think it will suffer the same fate as Proposition 1 (combining mass transit expansions with highway construction) did?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 09, 2008, 11:56:39 AM
Difficult to say. There were two distinct coalitions that killed the first one - the environmentalists and the anti-tax faction. The environmentalists claim it was their doing, but I think the exit polling and common sense makes it clear that it wasn't them. They'll vote for this one, but will they be able to make up the 5% it lost by in 2007? And will some voters be turned off by the lack of highways in the new one and switch to the "No" side?

You also have to keep in mind that the voter universe will be vastly different (registered voter turnout in 2007 was around 49% - it's going to be closer to 85% this year).

All things considered, if I had to make a prediction, I'd say it fails narrowly. But I really just don't know.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 09, 2008, 11:57:29 AM
Preliminary data I'm seeing says that Democratic turnout is much, much higher than Republican.

How could they tell that without having seen ballots?  People in the Dems' database as being Democrats are turning out more, or what?  I think that might be slightly skewed, since the Dems have caucus info for them and not the GOP.  So, there are probably a lot more active Republicans (if they didn't vote in the primary) who fall under the radar.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 09, 2008, 12:05:09 PM
Preliminary data I'm seeing says that Democratic turnout is much, much higher than Republican.

How could they tell that without having seen ballots?  People in the Dems' database as being Democrats are turning out more, or what?  I think that might be slightly skewed, since the Dems have caucus info for them and not the GOP.  So, there are probably a lot more active Republicans (if they didn't vote in the primary) who fall under the radar.

Yea, I raised that concern with people as well and we modified our formula to affect % of identified folks turning out instead of raw numbers.

However, "Democratic" turnout is surpassing or very near to surpassing 50% depending on the area, so the unidentified No Data's isn't really relevant in that case.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on August 10, 2008, 09:35:45 PM
This was how I voted in the major races --

U.S. Rep. District #3:  Cheryl Crist (D)
Governor:  Christine Gregoire (D)
Lieutenant Governor:  Didn't Vote
Secretary of State:  Sam Reed (R)
State Treasurer:  ChangMook Sohn (D)
State Auditor:  Brian Sonntag (D)
Attorney General:  John Ladenburg (D)
Commissioner of Public Lands:  Peter J. Goldmark (D)
Insurance Commissioner:  Mike Kreidler (D)
Superintendent of Public Instruction:  Randy Dorn
Supreme Court Justice Pos. 3:  Mary Fairhurst
Supreme Court Justice Pos. 4:  Charles W. Johnson
Supreme Court Justice Pos. 7:  Debra Stephens



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: MarkWarner08 on August 11, 2008, 01:47:15 PM
How is Peter Goldmark doing? I read somewhere that the current Land Commish gave an inappropriate back rub to a female staffer.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 11, 2008, 02:15:15 PM
How is Peter Goldmark doing? I read somewhere that the current Land Commish gave an inappropriate back rub to a female staffer.

He's outraising his opponent, and the only press Sutherland has gotten recently is the fondling story. Sutherland also has never receive more than 50% in an election.

I'm not quite certain he'll win, but he's doing much better than Ladenburg. I put his odds at a little greater than 50% though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: MarkWarner08 on August 11, 2008, 02:43:14 PM
How is Peter Goldmark doing? I read somewhere that the current Land Commish gave an inappropriate back rub to a female staffer.

He's outraising his opponent, and the only press Sutherland has gotten recently is the fondling story. Sutherland also has never receive more than 50% in an election.

I'm not quite certain he'll win, but he's doing much better than Ladenburg. I put his odds at a little greater than 50% though.
Thanks for the info. Goldmark reminds me of Ben Westlund -- they're both cowboy environmentalist Democrats from Republican areas.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Torie on August 11, 2008, 10:09:32 PM
Er, you are voting in the General election already?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 11, 2008, 11:22:41 PM
MY BALLOT! ;D

County initiative 26:
Part 1) No
Part 2) Council-proposed alternative

U.S. Rep. District #8:  Darcy Burner (D)
Governor:  Christine Gregoire (D)
Lieutenant Governor:  Brad Owen (D)
Secretary of State:  Write-in: Dean Logan
State Treasurer:  ChangMook Sohn (D)
State Auditor:  Brian Sonntag (D)
Attorney General:  John Ladenburg (D)
Commissioner of Public Lands:  Peter J. Goldmark (D)
Insurance Commissioner:  Mike Kreidler (D)
Superintendent of Public Instruction:  Randy Dorn
Leg Dist #5 Senator: Phyllis Huster (D)
Leg Dist #5 Representative #1: Joe Viebrock (D)
Leg Dist #5 Representative #2: David Spring (D)
Supreme Court Justice Pos. 3:  Mary Fairhurst
Supreme Court Justice Pos. 4:  Write-in: Freedom Fighter
Supreme Court Justice Pos. 7:  Debra Stephens

And a bunch of other county judges that nobody cares about....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: MarkWarner08 on August 12, 2008, 12:09:32 AM
Here's my ballot (or will be when I go to the office to cast it tomorrow).  Governor's race was a coin-flip and I might accidentally vote for someone else, or if the mood strikes.

Congress: Richmond (D)
Governor: Rossi (R)
Lt. Governor: McCraw (R)
Secretary of State: Reed (R)
Attorney General: McKenna (R)
Auditor: Sonntag (D)
Treasurer: Sohn (D)
CPL: Goldmark (D)
Insurance Commissioner: Kriedler (D)
SPI: Dorn
27th - Senate: Faulk (R)
27th - Rep #1: Smeall (D)
27th - Rep #2: Darneille (D)
SSC Pos 3: Fairhurst
SSC Pos 4: Johnson
SSC Pos 7: Stephens
COA D2P2: Houghton
PCSC: Hecht

Weirdest ballot ever.  A lot of it was arbitrary, too.  Whee.
Why did you switch to Rossi?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 12, 2008, 12:26:18 AM
^ Alcon gets a boner over how "undecided" he is.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 12, 2008, 12:55:29 AM
And a bunch of other county judges that nobody cares about....

I'm actually psuedo-working for a few of those judicial candidates. Do you remember who you picked?

And tsk, tsk at Alcon for Rossi and Hecht.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on August 12, 2008, 01:10:42 AM

I agree! 

Er, you are voting in the General election already?

No, it's the primary.  Candidates from all parties are on the ballot, Top 2 advance to the general.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 12, 2008, 01:30:32 AM
And a bunch of other county judges that nobody cares about....

I'm actually psuedo-working for a few of those judicial candidates. Do you remember who you picked?

And tsk, tsk at Alcon for Rossi and Hecht.

Umm

Tim Bradshaw
Jean Bouffard
Holly Hill
Laura Gene Middaugh
Jean Rietschel
Mariane Spearman


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: HardRCafé on August 12, 2008, 03:00:50 AM

This is a big surprise.  (Lack of finality noted.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 12, 2008, 11:32:17 AM
And a bunch of other county judges that nobody cares about....

I'm actually psuedo-working for a few of those judicial candidates. Do you remember who you picked?

And tsk, tsk at Alcon for Rossi and Hecht.

Umm

Tim Bradshaw
Jean Bouffard
Holly Hill
Laura Gene Middaugh
Jean Rietschel
Mariane Spearman

Eh, 1/3. At least you bother to vote in them

Same goes for Armijo.  I've read some not-so-flattering stuff about his conduct before.  I don't know the guy, so it's hard to say how true that is.  I'm working under the delusion that close primary = tighter ship.

You realize that they don't appear on the November ballot, right?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 12, 2008, 12:41:51 PM
Eh, 1/3. At least you bother to vote in them

1/3? I fail? :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 12, 2008, 01:13:45 PM

Spearman is a whore.

At least you didn't vote for Cahan *shudders*


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 12, 2008, 03:02:42 PM
Well, voted.  Left PCO blank, since I forgot I'm in a new precinct now and don't know either.  Switched my SPI vote to Fackler.  I'll be voting Kreidler almost certainly, but Fackler is only a joke, while Adams is a joke and a half.

I also switched from Johnson to Beecher.  Johnson is safe, and Beecher seems very amiable, and kind of libertarian-ish (but not in a libertarian way.)  Besides, Vulliet (two jokes in one bad Italian suit) has no chance.

You realize that they don't appear on the November ballot, right?

Ughh, I'm so bad at this.  Oh, well.  Armijo is almost certainly safe.  My first mis-vote!  This can be our little secret (I'll kill you all in your sleep if I have to)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 12, 2008, 05:29:29 PM
LOL@the Dean Logan vote, by the way.

At least someone thought it was funny. I felt so clever when I decided to that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 12, 2008, 06:37:10 PM
LOL@the Dean Logan vote, by the way.

At least someone thought it was funny. I felt so clever when I decided to that.

I told my father he should've done it and he agreed (he left the race blank since Osgood is crazy and he hates Republicans).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 12, 2008, 07:06:00 PM
I'm disappointed by Osgood.  I was hoping he'd bring a valid discussion on arcane balloting issues to the table.  Apparently, he mostly brings crazy.  The Stranger's Election Control Board endorsed Reed and called Osgood "paranoid," "sweaty" and a "nervous wreck."  They also said he went off on "Orwellian tirades about ballot barcodes."  That's the harshest I've ever seen them to anyone who agreed to meet with them.  And he's a Democrat.  Their I-26 anti-endorsement (non-partisan King County offices) capped off with: "if sex offenders have to register, so should Republicans."  They like their Democrats.  I haven't gotten the crazy vibe otherwise, but still.

They did make an exception on that, endorsing "anyone but Brad Owen."  Apparently he uses all of his time spent not being Governor to "tour the state with his crappy-ass rock band and crusade against pot."  Several inanimate objects received the endorsement over him.  I voted for the "empty bag of chips" (Marcia McCraw) over the "crusty come sock" (Jim Weist).  Ah, Seattle!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 12, 2008, 07:36:54 PM
As much as I love the man, that's a pretty accurate account of Brad Owen. He has a fairly large staff and no one really knows what they, or him, do. He also has a very extensive alcohol collection in his office.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 12, 2008, 07:45:26 PM
As much as I love the man, that's a pretty accurate account of Brad Owen. He has a fairly large staff and no one really knows what they, or him, do. He also has a very extensive alcohol collection in his office.

Yet he's anti-pot?  I might have to vote for the Republican.

Because, you know, if you want revolutionary government, and internally consistent substance use positions, you vote for the Washington GOP.  Yeah.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 12, 2008, 07:51:14 PM
As much as I love the man, that's a pretty accurate account of Brad Owen. He has a fairly large staff and no one really knows what they, or him, do. He also has a very extensive alcohol collection in his office.

Yet he's anti-pot?  I might have to vote for the Republican.

Because, you know, if you want revolutionary government, and internally consistent substance use positions, you vote for the Washington GOP.  Yeah.

His focus is on controlled substances and kids, although I'd be shocked if he was pro-legalization.

If you can't stomach him then write-in that Nirvana guy.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 12, 2008, 07:54:04 PM
Haha.  I kind of hope he'll run for something eventually.  He's a very sharp guy.  I'm not voting on pot, though, so it doesn't matter anyway.  It's a useless office and Owen hasn't blown it up, so I'll probably go for him.  I assumed the Stranger was mashing things to be edgy anyway.

By the way, just noticed -- happy birthday. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 12, 2008, 08:01:04 PM
Haha.  I kind of hope he'll run for something eventually.  He's a very sharp guy.  I'm not voting on pot, though, so it doesn't matter anyway.  It's a useless office and Owen hasn't blown it up, so I'll probably go for him.  I assumed the Stranger was mashing things to be edgy anyway.

Pretty much. Owen has done nothing to warrant being removed, and I highly doubt McCraw knows the Senate rules as well as him. I kind of doubt anyone knows the Senate rules as well as him.

But he's kind of a weird guy... he tells his staff to call him Governor when Gregoire is out the state. Whatever.

By the way, just noticed -- happy birthday. :)

Thank you! Mother made one cake and decided it wasn't moist enough, so she made a second one.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Kevinstat on August 12, 2008, 08:51:20 PM
When do the polls close your time, and does Washington State use (Pacific) Daylight Savings Time?  (Is it about 6:51 p.m. there as I type?)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 12, 2008, 09:04:34 PM
When do the polls close your time, and does Washington State use (Pacific) Daylight Savings Time?  (Is it about 6:51 p.m. there as I type?)

Yea, PST (three hours ahead of you). Polls close at 8 pm, but because we're heavily vote-by-mail you'll get a big chunk right around 8:30 - 9, a trickle of polls, and then a significant amount the next day. Close races won't be able to be called till Thursday, if not later.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on August 12, 2008, 10:30:13 PM

I'm disappointed by Osgood.  I was hoping he'd bring a valid discussion on arcane balloting issues to the table.  Apparently, he mostly brings crazy.  The Stranger's Election Control Board endorsed Reed and called Osgood "paranoid," "sweaty" and a "nervous wreck."  They also said he went off on "Orwellian tirades about ballot barcodes."  That's the harshest I've ever seen them to anyone who agreed to meet with them.  And he's a Democrat.

What rock did the Washington State Democrats dig Osgood out from under?  Why the f**k are they backing a candidate supported by (un) Sound Politics (http://soundpolitics.com/archives/010832.html)?  The least they could do is find someone qualified.  As a Dem I am embarrassed that the party put up such a candidate for a statewide race.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 12, 2008, 10:52:50 PM
^ LOL Eric Earling.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 12, 2008, 11:46:05 PM
All the Dems are endorsing him just because he has a D by his name. They have no idea who he is.

I was at the 27th LD meeting and they blanket endorsed the entire slate of unopposed Democrats running for statewide office, including Osgood. No debate. People just have no idea who he is and automatically support him.

The people running the local Democratic parties frequently have no idea what the hell they're doing.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: HardRCafé on August 13, 2008, 03:09:44 AM
They did make an exception on that, endorsing "anyone but Brad Owen."  Apparently he uses all of his time spent not being Governor to "tour the state with his crappy-ass rock band and crusade against pot."

I wonder if I could become the only one to donate to both Rossi and Owen.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: HardRCafé on August 13, 2008, 03:12:16 AM
Owen and his staff also conferred with Gov. Christine Gregoire and her staff on a proclamation proclaiming March 10, 2008 as “The Ventures Day” in Washington state.

"I urge all citizens to gather their 45s, 8-tracks, cassettes, CDs and iPods and play The Ventures music on this special observance,” the governor’s proclamation states. (http://www.ltgov.wa.gov/PressCoverage/newsreleases/03062008Ventures.htm)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 13, 2008, 05:32:57 AM
Owen and his staff also conferred with Gov. Christine Gregoire and her staff on a proclamation proclaiming March 10, 2008 as “The Ventures Day” in Washington state.

"I urge all citizens to gather their 45s, 8-tracks, cassettes, CDs and iPods and play The Ventures music on this special observance,” the governor’s proclamation states. (http://www.ltgov.wa.gov/PressCoverage/newsreleases/03062008Ventures.htm)

Yea, that's pretty typical Owen.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 14, 2008, 09:25:49 PM
Turnout in King County isn't going well. Not good news for the Governor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 16, 2008, 03:10:07 PM
I just want to puke every time I see an ad for the scumbag. He really is disgusting.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 16, 2008, 06:26:49 PM
I just want to puke every time I see an ad for the scumbag. He really is disgusting.

Agreed, there is just something not right about Rossi...

Turnout in King County isn't going well. Not good news for the Governor.

Turnout is down here in Thurston as well but after phone banking for about 6 hours and going door-to-door today I am finding that people just prefer to wait until a little bit closer to election day (most of them had sent their ballots out either yesterday or even today).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 16, 2008, 06:38:22 PM
So, anyone want to give a prediction of how Cheryl Crist will do against Brian Baird in the primary? She is running as an anti-war democrat against Baird (remember Baird recently came out for the war, after opposing it from the start, the only congressman or even elected official I know to have done so).

My guess (based on absolutely nothing):
Baird: 55%
Delevar: 22%
Crist: 12%
Webb: 11%

Watch as this prediction becomes a laughing stock in only four days time. By the way I know nothing about the republicans, except that they will easily lose to Baird.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 16, 2008, 09:51:03 PM
Turnout in King County isn't going well. Not good news for the Governor.

Turnout is down here in Thurston as well but after phone banking for about 6 hours and going door-to-door today I am finding that people just prefer to wait until a little bit closer to election day (most of them had sent their ballots out either yesterday or even today).

Most do vote later, but turnout is lower right now compared to this time in previous years.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 17, 2008, 01:22:50 AM
Pierce County turnout stands currently at 20%.  Returns are down 18% (not percentage points) from 2004, which is pretty sad-ish, considering that more people are vote-by-mail now.  That is, uselessly, up 2% from 2006.

King County is doing even worse, at 17%.  Pierce County typically has the state's lowest turnout.  This probably says more about KingCo having awful turnout than Pierce doing well.

Turnout elsewhere seems wildly variant:  27% in Benton, 19% in Clark, 37% (!) in Pacific, 17% in Snohomish, 24% in Spokane and 27% in Yakima.

Chelan County gives too much information (file (http://wei.secstate.wa.gov/chelan/Documents/ballots%20returned%20august%2015%202008.xls)), none of it what I wanted, but apparently only about 1-in-200 voters so far forgot to sign their ballots.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 17, 2008, 01:37:58 AM
Some of the smaller counties, like Pacific, have such a small population that you can't really read too much into their turnout percentages, it's just sort of a year-by-year randomness.

King is the really worry though. This just confirms what those within the party have known for months though, which is that the Gregoire and coordinated campaigns are completely incompetent.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 17, 2008, 01:44:06 AM
predicted turnout is 46%. I have a feeling that we will end up still being up from 2004 because of the popularity of the top-two primary. Just give people time.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 17, 2008, 02:00:35 AM
The current trend line is right below 2006 turnout (39%). I'm pretty sure Sam Reed was full of crap. We'll see


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 17, 2008, 02:19:48 AM
Some of the smaller counties, like Pacific, have such a small population that you can't really read too much into their turnout percentages, it's just sort of a year-by-year randomness.

King is the really worry though. This just confirms what those within the party have known for months though, which is that the Gregoire and coordinated campaigns are completely incompetent.

Why does it matter? It's just the primary. Would a warning to the Gregoire campaign that they need to do a better job really be a bad thing?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 17, 2008, 02:24:14 AM
Some of the smaller counties, like Pacific, have such a small population that you can't really read too much into their turnout percentages, it's just sort of a year-by-year randomness.

King is the really worry though. This just confirms what those within the party have known for months though, which is that the Gregoire and coordinated campaigns are completely incompetent.

Why does it matter? It's just the primary. Would a warning to the Gregoire campaign that they need to do a better job really be a bad thing?

It gets the Republicans excited and helps Rossi bring in out-of-state money (and makes in-state donors focus on the race more).

On the other hand, you're certainly right, it would give the Gregoire campaign (and a lot of the lazy party activists) a needed wake-up call that we can't just waltz to victory.

So positives and negatives.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 17, 2008, 02:28:26 AM
It gets the Republicans excited and helps Rossi bring in out-of-state money (and makes in-state donors focus on the race more).

Maybe. Seems like the closeness from 2004 (not to mention the high name-recognition he already has from it) would already help Rossi out a lot in those areas--so much that I'm not sure there's much room for improvement. But I don't know...

Too bad this silly mail-voting will make it take forever (relatively speaking of course) to get results. :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 17, 2008, 02:33:36 AM
It gets the Republicans excited and helps Rossi bring in out-of-state money (and makes in-state donors focus on the race more).

Maybe. Seems like the closeness from 2004 (not to mention the high name-recognition he already has from it) would already help Rossi out a lot in those areas--so much that I'm not sure there's much room for improvement. But I don't know...

You're probably right to some extent, but as we saw in 2004 every little bit can make a big difference.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: HardRCafé on August 17, 2008, 03:38:28 AM
I'm pretty sure Sam Reed was full of crap.

Heresy!  Sam Reed is full of only golden caramel and delicious milk chocolate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on August 17, 2008, 07:13:28 PM
It's too bad this has been taken over by partisans.

I just talked to one of the leaders of the state Democratic Party and the arguments they offer are just full of holes and completely nonsensical. The main argument is that we should be like the rest of the other states in the country and be "normal." The top-two primary according to the Democratic Party of WA will hurt third parties and lower voter turnout. How can this be true if voters chose to have a top-two primary? It really isn't confusing, but the parties make us think that it is. And this is an exciting chance for third parties to actually become part of the system. Take advantage of it Greens, Libertarians, and Constitutionalists! You guys actually have a chance now!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on August 17, 2008, 10:05:59 PM
It's too bad this has been taken over by partisans.

I just talked to one of the leaders of the state Democratic Party and the arguments they offer are just full of holes and completely nonsensical. The main argument is that we should be like the rest of the other states in the country and be "normal." The top-two primary according to the Democratic Party of WA will hurt third parties and lower voter turnout. How can this be true if voters chose to have a top-two primary? It really isn't confusing, but the parties make us think that it is. And this is an exciting chance for third parties to actually become part of the system. Take advantage of it Greens, Libertarians, and Constitutionalists! You guys actually have a chance now!

     They can get 15% now! Nevertheless, I like this system. Be nice if we adopted this in California. Then we could have competitive elections in the Bay Area. ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 17, 2008, 11:02:42 PM
How can this be true if voters chose to have a top-two primary?

Because voters are capable of making a decision that will decrease turnout? What you're saying isn't logical.

And this is an exciting chance for third parties to actually become part of the system. Take advantage of it Greens, Libertarians, and Constitutionalists! You guys actually have a chance now!

No, it excludes them nearly completely. A third party will never be on the November ballot for a statewide election until we get rid of this horrid system.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on August 18, 2008, 01:37:06 AM
The Top 2 Primary isn't perfect, but I resented the hell out of the "Pick A Party" primary.  If we go back to that system I will stop voting in the primary (except judicial races).  I really wish we could go back to the old blanket primary which unfortunately was declared unconstitutional.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 18, 2008, 02:29:57 AM
The Top 2 Primary isn't perfect, but I resented the hell out of the "Pick A Party" primary.  If we go back to that system I will stop voting in the primary (except judicial races).  I really wish we could go back to the old blanket primary which unfortunately was declared unconstitutional.

Agreed, the blanket primary was best. But really I don't mind this primary system very much... its kind of like a dry run through for the races in November and in some cases when a party is split between a number of candidates it opens up the possibility for third parties.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 18, 2008, 09:05:09 AM
in some cases when a party is split between a number of candidates it opens up the possibility for third parties.

But excludes them 99% of the time...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 18, 2008, 02:06:41 PM
So, how do you guys think Sam Reed will do in the general? I'm feeling fairly certain he'll hit 60%. 70% wouldn't really be out of the question, either.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on August 18, 2008, 05:22:42 PM
in some cases when a party is split between a number of candidates it opens up the possibility for third parties.

But excludes them 99% of the time...

It won't be that way once people get accustomed to the top-two primary. This year will look bad, but once people start to understand that they really have a choice in the first round, I believe we will see much more third party growth (esp. if the two main parties become corrupt).
Eventually this will really help to decrease partisanship and polarization.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 18, 2008, 09:19:22 PM
So, how do you guys think Sam Reed will do in the general? I'm feeling fairly certain he'll hit 60%. 70% wouldn't really be out of the question, either.

I am guessing 70%+, perhaps even breaking 80%. I don't even know any democrats who voted against him, he really did do a good job in 2004 of remaining impartial.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 18, 2008, 09:25:02 PM
By the way LD 35 should be interesting tomarrow for state Rep. Fred Finn should advance, but I am not so sure about who else, I think there are two dems and one weak republican in the primary so it could be interesting (Daugs is interesting, he could either do quite well or fall flat on his face).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 18, 2008, 10:39:57 PM
The SOS race will be interesting to see the absolute floor vote of a Democrat running statewide. I predicted Reed gets ~60-65%.

My highly scientific and wonderfully accurate predictions in a moment...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on August 18, 2008, 10:41:28 PM
The SOS race will be interesting to see the absolute floor vote of a Democrat running statewide. I predicted Reed gets ~60-65%.

My highly scientific and wonderfully accurate predictions in a moment...

That is my prediction as well. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 18, 2008, 10:53:58 PM
Alrighty, here we go. A bolded name means they will be the top vote getter. Two names means those are the ones advancing to November.

US Congress, Dist. 1: Inslee
US Congress, Dist. 2: Larsen, Bart
US Congress, Dist. 3: Baird, Webb
US Congress, Dist. 4: Hastings, Fearing
US Congress, Dist. 5: McMorris, Mays
US Congress, Dist. 6: Dicks, Cloud
US Congress, Dist. 7: McDermott, Beren
US Congress, Dist. 8: Reichert, Burner
US Congress, Dist. 9: Smith

Governor: Gregoire, Rossi
Lt. Governor: Owen, McCraw
SOS: Reed, Osgood
State Treasurer: Martin, Sohn
State Auditor: Sonntag, McEntee
Attorney General: McKenna
CPL: Goldmark
SPI: Bergeson, Dorn
Insurance Commissioner: Kreidler, Adams
Supreme Court: Fairhurst, Johnson, Stephens

Legislative races later on tonight if I have time...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 19, 2008, 01:31:24 AM
There's also a new SurveyUSA poll out that has Dorn up 43-32-9. Kind of shocking, especially since that's an 11 point jump for Dorn in less than a month.

I guess we'll see if it's right in 20 hours...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 19, 2008, 02:07:49 AM
The Seattle Times's ridiculously un-random straw poll (http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/edcetera/2008/08/a_primary_straw_poll.html):

SPI
Dorn 57%
Bergeson 32%

Supreme Court
Fairhurst 66%
Bond 34%

Johnson 77%
Beecher 16%
Vulliet 7%

Secretary of State
Reed (R) 67%
Osgood (D) 25%
Montgomery (C) 5%

State Treasurer
Martin (R) 53%
McIntire (D) 28%
Sohn (D) 20%

State Auditor
Sonntag (D) 73%
McEntee (R) 21%
Freeman (C) 6%

Lt. Governor
Owen (D) 59%
McCraw (R) 21%
Wiest (R) 8%
Bell (D) 6%
Peck (C) 6%

For some reason, Governor and WA-8 only have like 10 votes apiece.  The rest have several hundred.  Anyway, take that as you will.

Edit: Which, since it has Larsen leading Bart 50-46, should be with a grain of salt.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 19, 2008, 02:55:17 AM
I wish I had time and data to do an analysis of every race, but alas I don't. So here is my prediction for my own LD. Note that this isn't what the final tally will be, but this is what the results tomorrow night this time should read. And I spent the past three hours or so trying to perfect this, so they better end up being pretty friggin' close.

Srail (D): 51.2% (10,100)
Carrell (R): 48.8% (9,700)

Kelley (D): 59.8% (12,000)
Dooley (R): 40.2% (8,000)

I can already feel the egg on my face...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 19, 2008, 12:17:35 PM
FWIW, looking at the data I've seen, Gregoire should win Pierce County. Narrowly.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 19, 2008, 05:48:18 PM
Alrighty, here we go. A bolded name means they will be the top vote getter. Two names means those are the ones advancing to November.

US Congress, Dist. 1: Inslee
US Congress, Dist. 2: Larsen, Bart
US Congress, Dist. 3: Baird, Webb
US Congress, Dist. 4: Hastings, Fearing
US Congress, Dist. 5: McMorris, Mays
US Congress, Dist. 6: Dicks, Cloud
US Congress, Dist. 7: McDermott, Beren
US Congress, Dist. 8: Reichert, Burner
US Congress, Dist. 9: Smith

Governor: Gregoire, Rossi
Lt. Governor: Owen, McCraw
SOS: Reed, Osgood
State Treasurer: Martin, Sohn
State Auditor: Sonntag, McEntee
Attorney General: McKenna
CPL: Goldmark
SPI: Bergeson, Dorn
Insurance Commissioner: Kreidler, Adams
Supreme Court: Fairhurst, Johnson, Stephens

Legislative races later on tonight if I have time...

Shouldn't Goldmark have an opponent?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Dan the Roman on August 19, 2008, 08:55:34 PM
Alrighty, here we go. A bolded name means they will be the top vote getter. Two names means those are the ones advancing to November.

US Congress, Dist. 1: Inslee
US Congress, Dist. 2: Larsen, Bart
US Congress, Dist. 3: Baird, Webb
US Congress, Dist. 4: Hastings, Fearing
US Congress, Dist. 5: McMorris, Mays
US Congress, Dist. 6: Dicks, Cloud
US Congress, Dist. 7: McDermott, Beren
US Congress, Dist. 8: Reichert, Burner
US Congress, Dist. 9: Smith

Governor: Gregoire, Rossi
Lt. Governor: Owen, McCraw
SOS: Reed, Osgood
State Treasurer: Martin, Sohn
State Auditor: Sonntag, McEntee
Attorney General: McKenna
CPL: Goldmark
SPI: Bergeson, Dorn
Insurance Commissioner: Kreidler, Adams
Supreme Court: Fairhurst, Johnson, Stephens

Legislative races later on tonight if I have time...

You think Burner will come second this round given the way primary turnout has been going this year? Especially with all the competitive contests on the Democratic side?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 19, 2008, 10:48:47 PM
There are now results on the Secretary of State's homepage. Gregoire is doing very well, somehow she is ahead in Adams, Skamania and Spokane counties...

ChangMook Sohn looks to be headed towards defeat.
:(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Sam Spade on August 19, 2008, 11:50:53 PM
Y'all think you could go any slower in counting votes.  thanks!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 19, 2008, 11:58:01 PM
Y'all think you could go any slower in counting votes.  thanks!

Counting is basically done for the night.
:(



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 20, 2008, 12:24:13 AM
Y'all think you could go any slower in counting votes.  thanks!

The joys of absentee voting!

There will be another deluge around 10:30-11 PST. Pierce and King should be wrapped up by midnight to 3 AM.

If I have time I'll try to explain why it takes so long...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 20, 2008, 01:06:10 AM
Early results map:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&off=5&elect=6&fips=53&f=0


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 20, 2008, 01:11:32 AM
Biggest surprised of the night: WTF @ 27th, Position 1?

Or maybe Anderson being behind. Makes no sense.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 20, 2008, 01:18:06 AM
Biggest surprised of the night: WTF @ 27th, Position 1?

My mind is still being blown.  Seriously, who did the Republicans vote for in that race?  Either Democratic turnout was astronomically above the 63-35 (or so) split that's standard for us, or Flannigan drained a huge number of votes from Woodard.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 20, 2008, 01:18:52 AM
Early results map:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&off=5&elect=6&fips=53&f=0

That map is beautiful for Gregoire.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 20, 2008, 01:32:32 AM
^ Yeah, winning the second, third, fourth, and fifth largest counties in the state (that she lost in 2004) isn't a bad sign---but who knows what will happen come November. We've never had a primary like this so we can't really draw any parallels. But if she wins Pierce and Snohomish in the general, she's almost definitely won the election.

In other news, incumbent Republican Glenn Anderson is narrowly behind his Democratic opponent for State Representative in the 5th legislative district (mine!). Anderson didn't even get a Democratic opponent in 2006. It would make me very happy if we finally had a Democratic legislator. We're pretty much the only triple Republican district left in suburban Seattle, I think--at least in King County. It's pretty awful knowing you're from the district that spawned Dino the Despicable. :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 20, 2008, 01:53:02 AM
WTF is going on in Whitman County with Aiken?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 20, 2008, 01:55:31 AM
WTF is going on in Whitman County with Aiken?

I think Eunice Coker's staff messed up.

The 28th LD Senate race is currently tied, 5790-5790.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 20, 2008, 01:59:28 AM
WTF is going on in Whitman County with Aiken?

I think Eunice Coker's staff messed up.

But he also does well in other parts of Eastern Washington as well... maybe he ran some sort of insurgent regional campaign.

The 28th LD Senate race is currently tied, 5790-5790.

We are also currently laughing our heads off.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 20, 2008, 02:01:40 AM
^ I'd say there's about a 90% chance Whitman County just messed up. Their elections are run by absolute retards.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 20, 2008, 02:09:46 AM
While we wait, something fun I learned tonight: If you hang out at the Auditor's office when they release results, McCarthy comes out and personally gives them to you.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 20, 2008, 02:13:23 AM
King and Pierce are the only counties that will be releasing results for the rest of the night.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on August 20, 2008, 02:44:40 AM
Turnout is frighteningly horrible in King and Pierce unless that does not count the uncounted ballots.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on August 20, 2008, 02:56:46 AM
I'm so dismayed by ChangMook Sohn's loss.

But Gregoire is doing spectacularly and looks like she will win in Nov. with the help of higher turnout particularly in King County.

Did anyone notice the rather high numbers for the Constitution party? 6.52% for SOS!?

Disappointment with Burner, however when you add her total with the other two Democrats, she wins. I suspect that the GE will help Reichert, but it is a presidential year, so the Obama-effect may cancel out the Reichert-Green River Sheriff effect.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 20, 2008, 03:17:05 AM
I was expecting McIntire to win, but I thought it would at least be relatively close... His nearly 30 point loss is very surprising.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 20, 2008, 12:32:41 PM
Did anyone notice the rather high numbers for the Constitution party? 6.52% for SOS!?

That was another very odd thing. The Constitution Party got 3% in one statewide race and more than 6% in two others. Ellen Craswell's revenge?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: HardRCafé on August 20, 2008, 12:44:39 PM
Odd?  You have a safe Republican incumbent Republicans hate.  This is simply them having a temper tantrum.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 20, 2008, 01:14:09 PM
Odd?  You have a safe Republican incumbent Republicans hate.  This is simply them having a temper tantrum.

... which doesn't explain the State Auditor or Lt. Governor results.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 20, 2008, 04:22:06 PM
Whitman County has been fixed. Aiken is now getting 2%, with Rossi at 48 and Gregoire at 45. How the hell do the people running their elections let this sh*t slip by? There is little doubt in my mind that they have the worst elections department in the state. Probably also the most corrupt--but whatever.

Also interesting that a "No Party Preference" person got 10% for Insurance Commissioner.

Cheryl Crist actually came sort of close to making it to the general. It would've been funny if Western Washington's most Republican district had two Democrats in the general... Perhaps if there were just one more Republican running! Oh well.

Disappointing numbers for Burner.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 20, 2008, 04:24:57 PM
Also interesting that a "No Party Preference" person got 10% for Insurance Commissioner.

He's part of the Spokane County Republican establishment--no idea why he ran as an indy.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Sam Spade on August 20, 2008, 05:15:02 PM
Is the ballot counting for the primary going to last another two weeks?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: jimrtex on August 20, 2008, 05:40:43 PM
Legislative races that will not be D v. R.

LD3 Se  D v I (I had 22%)
LD7 R1  R v R (5 R's in primary)
LD8 R2  R v R (2 R's in primary)
LD11 Se D v D (3 D's in primary)
LD12 R2 R v R (1 R in primary vs. WI R)
LD22 Se D v D (2 D's in primary)
LD27 R2 D v D (2 D's, 2 R's in primary, D vote was 70-75% for other positions)
LD36 R1 D v D (2 D's, 1 R in primary, D voter was 82% for other position)
LD37 R2 D v L  (D v. L in primary, L was 11%)
LD38 R1 D v I  (D v. I in primary, I was 41%)
LD41 R2 D v G (D v. G in primary, G was 19%; R for Senate had 37%)
LD46 R1 D v D (2 D's vs 1 R in primary, 82% D for other position)
LD49 R2 D v I  (D v. I in primary, I was 35%)

The positions where two candidates from the same major party, were either not contested by the other party, or were in districts that were overwhelmingly one-sided (75%+ for one party).

The 5 positions where it is D vs. non-R, were all positions where there was no R candidate.  Two of the independents appear to have credible support.

There are two posititions where a R filed as a write-in candidate and will apparently qualify for the general election ballot.

LD28 R2 D v R (R WI v unopposed D)
LD49 Se D v R (R WI v unopposed D)

There are 24 positions where there was a single unopposed candidate.  It is my interpretation of Washington statutes that all ballots not cast for the single candidate will have to be examined for write-ins, with the 2nd place finisher placed on the general election ballot.

LD1 R1  D v WI
LD1 R2  D v WI
LD7 R2  R v WI
LD9 Se  R v WI
LD12 Se R v WI
LD12 R1 R v WI
LD13 R1 R v WI
LD13 R2 R v WI
LD14 Se R v WI
LD16 Se R v WI
LD19 Se D v WI
LD19 R1 D v WI
LD19 R2 D v WI
LD22 R1 D v WI
LD24 Se D v WI
LD32 R2 D v WI
LD34 Se D v WI
LD34 R1 D v WI
LD34 R2 D v WI
LD37 R1 D v WI
LD38 R2 D v WI
LD40 R1 D v WI
LD41 R2 D v WI
LD43 R1 D v WI


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: jimrtex on August 20, 2008, 06:01:33 PM
Is the ballot counting for the primary going to last another two weeks?
Yes.

Voter Turnout (http://vote.wa.gov/Elections/WEI/VoterTurnout.aspx?ElectionID=25)

You will notice that for most larger counties, the next update is at the end of the day on Wednesday.  For smaller counties, it looks like they will wait until Friday.  One outlier is Columbia County which looks like they will wait for the two week period to be finished before they count again.

Voters in King County appear to be favoring non-partisan elections without partisan labels, over the alternative of non-partisan elections with partisan labels for county offices.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Sam Spade on August 20, 2008, 06:19:40 PM
Oh geez.  Thanks.  Yet another reminder of how much I despise Washington - when New Mexico does this it's funny, when Washington does it, it's annoying...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 20, 2008, 06:40:47 PM
You will notice that for most larger counties, the next update is at the end of the day on Wednesday.  For smaller counties, it looks like they will wait until Friday.  One outlier is Columbia County which looks like they will wait for the two week period to be finished before they count again.

Important note:  Don't trust those estimates, especially "next count" or "ballots left to count."  King County's first projection (based on those numbers) was turnout of 18%--and they haven't updated "ballots left to count" since.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 20, 2008, 06:58:38 PM
Yea, the "Ballots left to count" number is pulled out of their ass. They have no idea how many they're going to get in the mail Hence why respectable counties, such as Pierce, wait much longer before providing estimates.

But for all the complaining about this taking so long, the final results aren't going differ by more than a percent or two from the first round released at 8:30 last night.

So it takes much longer to get a final number, but you know the winnner much quicker. Unless it's a really, really close race.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Bacon King on August 20, 2008, 08:55:20 PM
There are 24 positions where there was a single unopposed candidate.  It is my interpretation of Washington statutes that all ballots not cast for the single candidate will have to be examined for write-ins, with the 2nd place finisher placed on the general election ballot.

There could be a good bit of potential hilarity in those districts. The top write-in could be anyone from Mickey Mouse to Dino Rossi to Oprah.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 20, 2008, 10:29:17 PM
There are 24 positions where there was a single unopposed candidate.  It is my interpretation of Washington statutes that all ballots not cast for the single candidate will have to be examined for write-ins, with the 2nd place finisher placed on the general election ballot.

No. State law says that you must receive 1% of the primary vote in order to advance to the general election, thus avoiding a situation like this.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: frihetsivrare on August 20, 2008, 11:22:00 PM
This isn´t surprising, but I voted for only one winner, Doug Ericksen for State House.  I was very impressed with how the Constitution Party did, 3.35%, 6.45% and 6.73%. 

This may have already been stated, but in Legislative district 7 every candidate prefers the Republican Party or GOP Party.  One position had five candidates.  One district in Seattle had all Democratic candidates for one posititon, but one from each major party for the other.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 21, 2008, 01:02:10 AM
Could someone do a map for the SPI race?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 21, 2008, 01:23:46 AM
Could someone do a map for the SPI race?

Pretty darn boring.  Like the last time, Bergeson won strongly everywhere, except where there's a lot of insurgent voting.  And for some reason, the Wenatchee metro, which hated her in 2004 too.

I can make a map, but were you looking for a data upload?  Probably a lot more interesting.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 21, 2008, 01:49:08 AM
There isn't an option to upload SPI... :(



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 21, 2008, 02:02:18 AM
I just wanted to see where Dorn's strongest areas were, and reading the county list wasn't too easy to visualize.

My suspicions were that he did well in the East and in the Southwest. I could be very wrong though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 21, 2008, 02:17:49 AM
I just wanted to see where Dorn's strongest areas were, and reading the county list wasn't too easy to visualize.

My suspicions were that he did well in the East and in the Southwest. I could be very wrong though.

Haven't memorized the county outlines and general metro areas?  Shameful!  (and good for your health.)

Dorn was competitive in the Tri-Cities (I didn't notice that he won Benton County, which is Kennewick and Richland); and the Wenatchee area.  He also did rather well in the suburbs, but not "ring cities" like Bremerton and Tacoma, which is interesting but seems to fit.

Beyond that, Bergeson's performance was kind of weird.  She ran pretty mediocre in the Seattle metro (see: suburbs?), but did really well in theoretically WASL-hostile areas like the San Juan Islands and Port Townsend.  She did OK in areas where the insurgency/Constitution vote was high this year (the Northeastern forestlands); politically "traditionalistic" areas (the coast and the Cowlitz); and in (non-suburban) conservative areas less prone to insurgency (the rural East counties).

If I had to write a litmus test for results, with the highest level being county, I'd say the basic formula for high Dorn performance was a "yes" answer to this pair of questions:

Does the public school system need fixing?
If so, does it need a drastic change?


I also get the impression that something local is going on in Wenatchee.  It stood out less this year, but in 2004, it was just too intense for it to just be the above criteria.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on August 21, 2008, 02:23:17 AM
I just wanted to see where Dorn's strongest areas were, and reading the county list wasn't too easy to visualize.

My suspicions were that he did well in the East and in the Southwest. I could be very wrong though.

Haven't memorized the county outlines and general metro areas?  Shameful!  (and good for your health.)

Dorn was competitive in the Tri-Cities (I didn't notice that he won Benton County, which is Kennewick and Richland); and the Wenatchee area.  He also did rather well in the suburbs, but not "ring cities" like Bremerton and Tacoma, which is interesting but seems to fit.

Beyond that, Bergeson's performance was kind of weird.  She ran pretty mediocre in the Seattle metro (see: suburbs?), but did really well in theoretically WASL-hostile areas like the San Juan Islands and Port Townsend.  She did OK in areas where the insurgency/Constitution vote was high this year (the Northeastern forestlands); politically "traditionalistic" areas (the coast and the Cowlitz); and in (non-suburban) conservative areas less prone to insurgency (the rural East counties).

If I had to write a litmus test for results, with the highest level being county, I'd say the basic formula for high Dorn performance was a "yes" answer to this pair of questions:

Does the public school system need fixing?
If so, does it need a drastic change?


I also get the impression that something local is going on in Wenatchee.  It stood out less this year, but in 2004, it was just too intense for it to just be the above criteria.

I met someone from Wenatchee and the schools there are in need of drastic change especially since they are about one-third Spanish speaking. Yakima is similar.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 21, 2008, 03:26:12 AM
Some interesting county results for Congressional races:

ADAMS COUNTY
75.59% McMorris Rodgers (R)
7.52% Erickson (R)
6.90% Mays (D)
5.72% Lampert (D)
2.62% Yearout (C)
1.66% (L)

COWLITZ COUNTY
52.44% Baird (D)
17.12% Crist (D)
15.60% Delavar (R)
14.84% Webb (R)

Basically, Cowlitz County is awesome and Adams is reminding us that nobody is f**king with their reputation as the worst county in Washington.


ALSO:
State Treasurer:
()
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&off=8&elect=6&fips=53&f=0


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 21, 2008, 04:53:41 AM
Some interesting county results for Congressional races:

ADAMS COUNTY
75.59% McMorris Rodgers (R)
7.52% Erickson (R)
6.90% Mays (D)
5.72% Lampert (D)
2.62% Yearout (C)
1.66% (L)

COWLITZ COUNTY
52.44% Baird (D)
17.12% Crist (D)
15.60% Delavar (R)
14.84% Webb (R)

Basically, Cowlitz County is awesome and Adams is reminding us that nobody is f**king with their reputation as the worst county in Washington.


ALSO:
State Treasurer:
()
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&off=8&elect=6&fips=53&f=0

Whoot! Go Thurston for giving Sohn his largest share of the vote!!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 21, 2008, 10:59:22 PM
Dino the Despicable is now ahead in Cowlitz, Clark, Spokane, and Skamania.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 21, 2008, 11:08:41 PM
Yea, the Republicans statewide had a really good day in absentee returns. A lot of the legislative candidates gained a point or two as well.

Perhaps a bunch of military ballots arrived.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 21, 2008, 11:14:37 PM
Dino the Despicable is now ahead in Cowlitz, Clark, Spokane, and Skamania.

Did late returns (or ballots just arriving in the mail) favor Rossi then?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 21, 2008, 11:36:27 PM
^ I guess so. Though Gregoire is still doing pretty well in Snohomish and Pierce. She also has a solid lead in Grays Harbor, which she narrowly lost in 2004. This makes me feel a little bit better about November. It would be very sad to see the Despicable One mercilessly rape and murder our state every day for four years. :(

Also, I made a map of the Congressional races. Red is Democrat/Green and blue is Republican/Constitution. Independents and Libertarians were excluded.

()

Reichert narrowly "won" the primary with 48%. Democrats combined beat the only Republican. Of course, this was the case in 2006 as well. Still, Darcy should probably do at least as well as she did in 2006 I think, if these primaries are any indicator... hard to tell...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 21, 2008, 11:37:28 PM
Later absentee ballots tend to be more Republican, at least for the last few years.

It also, of course, depends on how much of a given day's load is King County.  But there are obvious gains here.

Gregoire losing Cowlitz is weird, especially since Goldmark and Ladenburg both won it.  Speaking of that, what's with Ladenburg in SW Wash. in general?  I'd say media markets, but um, were there actually advertisements for this all?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 21, 2008, 11:48:15 PM
Anyone have any info or ideas about the two remaining candidates for state treasurer? I really liked Sohn but I am not so sure about the other two.

The republican was endorsed by Murhpy and I really respected him and meanwhile McIntire... well I just don't know a ton about him.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 21, 2008, 11:56:48 PM
Anyone have any info or ideas about the two remaining candidates for state treasurer? I really liked Sohn but I am not so sure about the other two.

The republican was endorsed by Murhpy and I really respected him and meanwhile McIntire... well I just don't know a ton about him.

McIntire is one of the smartest members of the State House and really knows economic issues. From speaking to him he also really, really wants to win. Both he and Martin would be excellent at the job, so you can't really go wrong.

The peak of Martin's political career will be State Treasurer. He just happens to have a profession that requires election. McIntire could potentially go higher. He's a politician who has an interest in doing the job of State Treasurer and would be really good at it.

I hope that makes sense.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on August 22, 2008, 01:16:10 AM
Gregoire is still leading in many of the counties she lost in Western WA and Asotin. Cowlitz is odd though...

I'm still rooting for Burner. I think I'll join her campaign. She needs help and I'll be happy to provide it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 22, 2008, 02:23:11 AM
I'm definitely voting for McIntire in the general. Would've been nice to have Sohn, but McIntire will do...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 22, 2008, 02:29:08 AM
I'm definitely voting for McIntire in the general. Would've been nice to have Sohn, but McIntire will do...

What convinced you, the (D) next to his name, or the "Prefers Democratic Party" in the primary? :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 22, 2008, 02:31:31 AM
I'm definitely voting for McIntire in the general. Would've been nice to have Sohn, but McIntire will do...

What convinced you, the (D) next to his name, or the "Prefers Democratic Party" in the primary? :P

The fact that Allan Martin is Dino Rossi's sex kitten.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 22, 2008, 02:38:35 AM
I'm definitely voting for McIntire in the general. Would've been nice to have Sohn, but McIntire will do...

What convinced you, the (D) next to his name, or the "Prefers Democratic Party" in the primary? :P

No, silly, you know me better than that. It's the fact that Martin has a "Prefers Republican Party" by his name and his Democratic opponent isn't Osgood-awful. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on August 22, 2008, 02:46:20 AM
Martin looks like he will win though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 22, 2008, 03:04:19 AM
I'm definitely voting for McIntire in the general. Would've been nice to have Sohn, but McIntire will do...

What convinced you, the (D) next to his name, or the "Prefers Democratic Party" in the primary? :P

The fact that Allan Martin is Dino Rossi's sex kitten.

I'm afraid to ask just in case that isn't a metaphor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 23, 2008, 01:17:53 AM
Here are the current swing by county numbers in excel and map form.

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 23, 2008, 03:02:30 AM
Hecht's percentage has consistently gone down every day, so I did some quick math to figure out what it would take for Armijo to pull off a win. He'd need 57% of the remaining vote, AKA he can't win.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: jimrtex on August 24, 2008, 06:42:16 PM
There are 24 positions where there was a single unopposed candidate.  It is my interpretation of Washington statutes that all ballots not cast for the single candidate will have to be examined for write-ins, with the 2nd place finisher placed on the general election ballot.

No. State law says that you must receive 1% of the primary vote in order to advance to the general election, thus avoiding a situation like this.
Washington law also says that if the number of undervotes and write-in votes is sufficient to change a result, that they be counted.  If there is a single candidate on the primary ballot, it is quite likely that the number of undervotes is greater than 1%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 24, 2008, 07:12:22 PM
Geez, I thought people would think my swing data & map were interesting. :(

Also, if we adjust the turn-out numbers to account for the low turn-out in places like King County to resemble those from 2004, then Gregoire got about 52.5% to Rossi's 47.5%. Of course, that excludes that 8 or 9% of people who voted for the other random candidates. But who knows what the hell is going to happen with them...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on August 24, 2008, 07:36:19 PM
Geez, I thought people would think my swing data & map were interesting. :(

Also, if we adjust the turn-out numbers to account for the low turn-out in places like King County to resemble those from 2004, then Gregoire got about 52.5% to Rossi's 47.5%. Of course, that excludes that 8 or 9% of people who voted for the other random candidates. But who knows what the hell is going to happen with them...

I think it is interesting.  It appears that Gregoire has improved her standing in conservative eastern and southwestern Washington, but was undone by low turnout in King County.  They should make a point to work on that for the general.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 26, 2008, 11:47:21 PM
There are 24 positions where there was a single unopposed candidate.  It is my interpretation of Washington statutes that all ballots not cast for the single candidate will have to be examined for write-ins, with the 2nd place finisher placed on the general election ballot.

No. State law says that you must receive 1% of the primary vote in order to advance to the general election, thus avoiding a situation like this.
Washington law also says that if the number of undervotes and write-in votes is sufficient to change a result, that they be counted.  If there is a single candidate on the primary ballot, it is quite likely that the number of undervotes is greater than 1%.

Can you rephrase that? I don't quite understand what you're referencing.

Regardless of which of us is technically legal correct however, in speaking with the elections officials over the past week I can tell you that they're using my interpretation.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 27, 2008, 02:56:48 PM
Skagit has fallen to the dark side.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: jimrtex on August 29, 2008, 08:52:20 PM
No. State law says that you must receive 1% of the primary vote in order to advance to the general election, thus avoiding a situation like this.
Washington law also says that if the number of undervotes and write-in votes is sufficient to change a result, that they be counted.  If there is a single candidate on the primary ballot, it is quite likely that the number of undervotes is greater than 1%.
Can you rephrase that? I don't quite understand what you're referencing.
There is a fundamental right to cast a write-in vote.  If a machine-counted ballot does not indicate a choice, then the presumption should be that it is a possible write-in vote.  In a race where there is only a single candidate on the ballot, there are likely to be 20 to 30% of the ballots with no choice indicated. 

See for example LD1 where the uncontested House races had about 70% of the vote cast in the contested Senate race.   While many of about 8,000 voters will simply have skipped the House races, the presumption should be that every one of the ballots has a write-in vote.  Washington law requires possible write-in votes to be tallied if it would have an effect on the outcome.  If there is a person who receives 1% of the vote, then they would be placed on the general election ballot.  This would be a change in the outcome.  1% is only about 200 votes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 29, 2008, 09:52:36 PM
Why would an undervote be presumed to be a write-in?  The machine automatically distinguishes those from write-ins.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 29, 2008, 11:07:15 PM
Why would an undervote be presumed to be a write-in?  The machine automatically distinguishes those from write-ins.

^^^


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: jimrtex on August 31, 2008, 11:26:23 AM
Why would an undervote be presumed to be a write-in?  The machine automatically distinguishes those from write-ins.

[X] Rossi
[  ] Write-in ______________

[X] Rossi
[X] Write-in Rossi                   

[  ] Rossi
[X] Write-in Rossi                   

[  ] Rossi
[  ] Write-in Rossi                   

[  ] Rossi
[  ] Write-in ______________
Rossi for Governor

Are all valid Rossi votes.  In a machine tally, only the first will be counted.  The 2nd will be counted as an overvote, the 3rd as a write-in vote.  The 4th and 5th will be counted as undervotes.

Washington law is explicit that if the total number of machine-tallied write-in votes, undervotes, and overvotes for an on-ballot candidate could change the outcome of an election, that the ballots be hand counted, since it is possible that all were marked in some way that was a valid vote.

In the case of a person who has not filed for the offfice, the following are valid votes (assuming they can figure out who Alcon is).

[  ] Rossi
[X] Write-in Alcon                     

[  ] Rossi
[  ] Write-in Alcon                     

[  ] Rossi
[  ] Write-in ______________
Alcon for Governor

None of these can be machine-tallied.  Again, Washington law says that they be hand counted if it is possible that they would change the outcome.  It doesn't matter that most undervotes are probably of the form:

[  ] Rossi
[  ] Write-in ______________

The law presumes the possibility that they are all valid votes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 31, 2008, 12:36:29 PM
All ballots are looked at in person before being sent through a machine to avoid a situation like this. There are tables and tables of workers who look at ballots that have been filled out incorrectly and fill out substitute ballots that can be read by the counting machines.

The only time a ballot is counted as an undervote is if you literally did not make any mark or indication in regards to that race.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 31, 2008, 12:58:15 PM
Ah, interesting, thanks :)

I'd been told that the Tabulator machine separates out any ballots with extraneous marks, but maybe law still demands that the undercounts be checked?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 31, 2008, 01:04:54 PM
I'd been told that the Tabulator machine separates out any ballots with extraneous marks

That's correct, but at that point they've already been through a hand check and any ballots with potential problems should have been dealt with. There are a very, very small amount that are rejected by the machines, but those are just dealt with by having a substitute ballot sent in its place.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 04, 2008, 05:30:47 PM
Walla Walla is the only county with ballots left to count. The rest have their final results.

King County is going to release precinct results tomorrow!! Of course, I'll probably be in Rossiland, which is sad, but I'm used to it. :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 05, 2008, 08:02:11 PM
Results from my Sammamish precinct. Gregoire won :)

GOVERNOR      
52.58%   102   Gregoire
45.36%   88   Rossi
1.03%   2   Joubert
0.52%   1   Aiken
0.52%   1   Baker
0.00%   0   Tudor
0.00%   0   Badgley
0.00%   0   White
0.00%   0   Lopez
0.00%   0   Said
   194   TOTAL
      
LT. GOVERNOR      
52.78%   95   Owen
31.67%   57   McCraw
11.67%   21   Wiest
3.33%   6   Bell
0.56%   1   Peck
   180   TOTAL
      
ATTORNEY GENERAL      
57.37%   109   McKenna
42.63%   81   Ladenburg
   190   TOTAL
      
COMMISSIONER OF PUBLIC LANDS      
54.91%   95   Goldmark
45.09%   78   Sutherland
   173   TOTAL
      
INSURANCE COMMISSIONER      
58.01%   105   Kriedler
31.49%   57   Adams
10.50%   19   Fackler
   181   TOTAL
      
SECRETARY OF STATE      
59.89%   112   Reed
32.09%   60   Osgood
6.95%   13   Montgomery
1.07%   2   Greene
   187   TOTAL
      
STATE AUDITOR      
63.64%   119   Sonntag
31.55%   59   McEntee
4.81%   9   Freeman
   187   TOTAL
      
STATE TREASURER      
47.34%   89   McIntire
41.49%   78   Martin
11.17%   21   Sohn
   188   TOTAL
      
SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION      
43.31%   68   Bergeson
37.58%   59   Dorn
5.73%   9   Hansler
5.10%   8   Duncan
4.46%   7   Blomstrom
3.82%   6   Blair
   157   TOTAL
         
State Representative #1 Legislative District 5         
55.62%   99   Rodne   R
44.38%   79   Viebrock   D
   178   TOTAL   
         
State Representative #2 Legislative District 5         
61.02%   108   Spring   D
38.98%   69   Anderson   R
   177   TOTAL   
         
State Senate Legislative District 5         
54.30%   101   Pflug   R
45.70%   85   Huster   D
   186   TOTAL   

         
State Supreme Court         
68.49%   100   Fairhurst   
31.51%   46   Bond   
   146   TOTAL   
         
State Supreme Court         
65.94%   91   Johnson   
27.54%   38   Beecher   
6.52%   9   Vulliet   
   138   TOTAL   

U.S. Congressional District 8         
50.79%   96   Burner   D
42.86%   81   Reichert   R
3.70%   7   Vaughn   D
1.59%   3   Arnold   D
1.06%   2   Todd   NP
0.00%   0   Orlinski   NP
   189   TOTAL   


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on September 05, 2008, 09:11:20 PM
Could you do my precinct? Fry Cove (thurston county) 094


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: jimrtex on September 06, 2008, 01:03:59 AM
I'd been told that the Tabulator machine separates out any ballots with extraneous marks

That's correct, but at that point they've already been through a hand check and any ballots with potential problems should have been dealt with. There are a very, very small amount that are rejected by the machines, but those are just dealt with by having a substitute ballot sent in its place.
King County reported roughly 2 to 3% write-ins in every legislative race where there was only candidate on the ballot.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 06, 2008, 01:16:59 AM
I'd been told that the Tabulator machine separates out any ballots with extraneous marks

That's correct, but at that point they've already been through a hand check and any ballots with potential problems should have been dealt with. There are a very, very small amount that are rejected by the machines, but those are just dealt with by having a substitute ballot sent in its place.
King County reported roughly 2 to 3% write-ins in every legislative race where there was only candidate on the ballot.


Yes, however, they only count who those write-ins were for if someone has filed a Declaration of Write-In candidacy or if it is clear to election workers that a candidate may make the general election ballot.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 06, 2008, 02:12:48 AM
Could you do my precinct? Fry Cove (thurston county) 094

Candidates receiving 5% or more:

U.S. House of Representatives
Brian Baird (D) 57.1%
Cheryl Crist (D) 17.5%
Michael Delevar (R) 17.2%
Christine Webb (R) 8.2%

Governor
Christine Gregoire (D) 58.3%
Dino Rossi (R) 37.6%

Lt. Governor
Brad Owen (D) 63.1%
Marcia McCraw (R) 15.1%
Jim Wiest (R) 12.6%
Randel Bell (D) 7.4%

Secretary of State
Sam Reed (R) 71.0%
Jason Osgood (D) 23.9%

State Treasurer
Allan Martin (R) 35.4%
Jim McIntire (D) 34.1%
ChangMook Sohn (D) 30.5%

State Auditor
Brian Sonntag (D) 72.2%
Richard McEntee (R) 23.2%

State Attorney General
Rob McKenna (R) 54.2%
John Ladenburg (D) 45.8%

Commissioner of Public Lands
Peter Goldmark (D) 55.5%
Doug Sutherland (R) 44.5%

Superintendent of Public Instruction
Randy Dorn 40.3%
Terry Bergeson 39.7%
Enid Duncan 7.2%
John Patterson Blair 5.9%
Don Hansler 5.9%

Insurance Commissioner
Mike Kriedler (D) 67.2%
John Adams (R) 23.9%
Curtis Fackler (NP) 9.0%

State Rep Pos. 1
Kathy Haigh (D) 70.9%
Marco Brown (R) 16.6%
Brad Gehring (R) 12.6%

State Rep Pos. 2
Fred Finn (D) 59.7%
Randy Neatherlin (R) 21.8%
Darryl Daugs (D) 13.3%
Herb Baze (R) 5.2%

SC Pos. 3
Mary Fairhurst 64.3%
Michael J. Bond 35.7%

SC Pos. 4
Charles Johnson 62.4%
James Beecher 29.1%
Frank Vulliet 8.5%

COP Div 2 Dis 2 Pos 1
Robin Hunt 66.7%
Tim Ford 33.3%

Thurston Superior Court Pos 3
Carol Murphy 56.2%
Charles Williams 43.8%

Thurston Superior Court Pos 7
Gary Tabor 71.6%
Ed Holm 28.4%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 06, 2008, 02:26:22 AM
This primary has given me great hope that Peter Goldmark will be able to win :)

But it has also confirmed my suspicion that John Ladenburg is completely f**cked :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 06, 2008, 02:35:14 AM
I did a little academic exercise and took the PCO results where there were just a D vs. R, in Kitsap County.  I eliminated rates where one of the candidates was a public figure, which always brings more votes for them.

The result: pretty much identical to 2004, very slightly more Dem.  Same deal in Okanogan County.

So, basically, the superior Dem turnout thing didn't seem to be in play.  In fact, Dem turnout may have been lower -- and that's not even adjusting for low-ish turnout in King County.

I wouldn't bet on Goldmark, but I think he definitely stands a chance.  He's also likely to benefit from Obama on-ticket.  He seems like that kind of candidate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: minionofmidas on September 06, 2008, 06:21:15 AM
All ballots are looked at in person before being sent through a machine to avoid a situation like this. There are tables and tables of workers who look at ballots that have been filled out incorrectly and fill out substitute ballots that can be read by the counting machines.
In other words, there is no point whatsoever to machine counting.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 06, 2008, 10:52:56 AM
But it has also confirmed my suspicion that John Ladenburg is completely f**cked :(


Yeah

but then again, knowing Washington Republicans, you have to figure there is about a 3-4% chance McKenna has a gay sex scandal come out over the next two months, in which case we'll be glad Ladenburg isn't a complete sacrificial lamb. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 06, 2008, 01:56:29 PM
All ballots are looked at in person before being sent through a machine to avoid a situation like this. There are tables and tables of workers who look at ballots that have been filled out incorrectly and fill out substitute ballots that can be read by the counting machines.
In other words, there is no point whatsoever to machine counting.

No. The workers don't count the ballots, they just look for incorrectly filled out ballots. It's a quick scan of the ballot from top to bottom, takes a few seconds at most.

Counting the ballots by hand would take unbelievably longer.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: minionofmidas on September 06, 2008, 03:43:33 PM
All ballots are looked at in person before being sent through a machine to avoid a situation like this. There are tables and tables of workers who look at ballots that have been filled out incorrectly and fill out substitute ballots that can be read by the counting machines.
In other words, there is no point whatsoever to machine counting.

No. The workers don't count the ballots, they just look for incorrectly filled out ballots. It's a quick scan of the ballot from top to bottom, takes a few seconds at most.

Counting the ballots by hand would take unbelievably longer.
Oh right, the old problem of having too many different races on the same bit of paper, meaning loads and loads of sorting work.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 07, 2008, 05:38:33 PM
Final results for Governor: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?f=0&fips=53&elect=6&off=5&year=2008

()

My questions:

1) Any ideas on why Gregoire won Island?

2) What about Rossi winning Cowlitz? Even Ladenburg almost won that county.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 07, 2008, 05:54:24 PM
And how did Joubert get 2.6% in Cowlitz?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 07, 2008, 06:00:43 PM
The most interesting election, in my opinion: Attorney General

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&off=9&elect=6&fips=53&f=0

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Go figure, here Island is McKenna's best non-Lewis county in Western Washington.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 07, 2008, 06:03:19 PM
Ladenburg didn't win King?

Wow. I hadn't realized that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 07, 2008, 06:06:37 PM
Ladenburg didn't win King?

Wow. I hadn't realized that.

Yeah. I feel sorry for him...

But then again, Jason Osgood lost f'ing Seattle. So it could be worse. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 07, 2008, 06:08:52 PM
Ladenburg didn't win King?

Wow. I hadn't realized that.

Yeah. I feel sorry for him...

But then again, Jason Osgood lost f'ing Seattle. So it could be worse. :)

Did Osgood win Waldron?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 07, 2008, 06:09:16 PM
Gregoire didn't do so well among downscale, non-elderly voters.  I have a list of selected trailer park precincts statewide.  Together, she did only like 5-10 percentage points better in margin than Osgood.  In a few, she lost while Osgood won (ouch).

Cowlitz County is probably the most "downscale" county in Washington state.  Looking at the precinct results, it looks like Gregoire's weakness among downscale Democrats hurt her, here.  She fell virtually everywhere, save for a middle-class pocket of Longview around Sacajawea Park, and the suburbanizing Mt. Solo area.

As for Island -- locally anemic turnout has a lot to do with it.  Oak Harbor has a fairly transient population base.  Inactive voter rates are rather high there.  Turnout vs. 2004 was 53% in Oak Harbor, compared to 63% countywide.  That couldn't help the GOP, especially considering transient voters are more likely to be military.  Whatever the case may be, Gregoire improved fairly dramatically vis-a-vis Kerry around Oak Harbor.  Of the 17 Island County precincts where Gregoire outpaced him by 4% or more, 15 were in the Oak Harbor area.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 07, 2008, 06:13:30 PM

Yeah.  Osgood 40, Reed 12, Montgomery 5, Greene 1.  That's the best a Republican has ever done on Waldron.  Waldron has one family of three reliable Republicans, a few staunch Democrats who will vote for Reed, and then everyone else are just massive Democratic hacks. I'm surprised Montgomery got 5.  I doubt they had any idea of what the Constitution Party is.

Osgood also won Langley, Nespelem and Port Townsend.  He probably carried some others (Index, Elmer City, and the Mexican towns in Yakima County would be good bets), too.

The Seattle results are funny.  Osgood barely won Capitol Hill -- in fact, he had to make up for a deficit in the 15th Avenue area down around Broadway.  That is really and truly pathetic.  Interesting race, though.  We got to see what are the truly hackish Democratic parts of Seattle, and they're not totally what I expected.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 07, 2008, 06:37:43 PM
State Auditor: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&off=11&elect=6&fips=53&f=0

()

Any chance Sonntag will ever run for Governor? ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 07, 2008, 06:38:58 PM
State Auditor: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&off=11&elect=6&fips=53&f=0

()

Any chance Sonntag will ever run for Governor? ;D

100%. Wait for Gregoire to retire.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 07, 2008, 06:41:01 PM
State Auditor: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&off=11&elect=6&fips=53&f=0

()

Any chance Sonntag will ever run for Governor? ;D

Can't wait to vote for him.

I know the Constitution Party was helping a bit more this time and all, but it's kind of depressing that Will Baker could manage to get an almost identical map.

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 07, 2008, 07:11:23 PM
Oh wow, I thought Sonntag-for-Gov was just wishful thinking on my part. I didn't know there was a good chance of it actually happening. That's awesome. If Gregoire wins re-election this year, which I think is looking likely at this point, and Sonntag serves at least two terms... we would be at least 36 years of nothing but Democratic Governors. Great. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 07, 2008, 07:14:14 PM
Jay Inslee will also run, and possibly Frank Chopp as well. And McKenna. Blech.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 07, 2008, 07:18:27 PM
^ Yes, McKenna is more likely to be Washington's next Republican Governor than Rossi. I've felt that way for a while. But I'm fairly certain he would lose against Sonntag. That would be a great way to get rid of McKenna. :)

Inslee would be an okay candidate, though I would rather not run candidates from Seattle/Bainbridge when possible... As for Chopp, I hope you're kidding. I kind of doubt the Republicans will ever regain the legislature. At least not for decades. He should just be happing being in control of the House for as long as he wants. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 07, 2008, 07:26:16 PM
^ Yes, McKenna is more likely to be Washington's next Republican Governor than Rossi. I've felt that way for a while. But I'm fairly certain he would lose against Sonntag. That would be a great way to get rid of McKenna. :)

Inslee would be an okay candidate, though I would rather not run candidates from Seattle/Bainbridge when possible... As for Chopp, I hope you're kidding. I kind of doubt the Republicans will ever regain the legislature. At least not for decades. He should just be happing being in control of the House for as long as he wants. :P

The Chopp thing I've only heard once, but it was from a pretty good source. Inslee has been planning his ascension for years now though.

Maybe Pam Roach can run again.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on September 07, 2008, 08:28:04 PM
^ Yes, McKenna is more likely to be Washington's next Republican Governor than Rossi. I've felt that way for a while. But I'm fairly certain he would lose against Sonntag. That would be a great way to get rid of McKenna. :)

Inslee would be an okay candidate, though I would rather not run candidates from Seattle/Bainbridge when possible... As for Chopp, I hope you're kidding. I kind of doubt the Republicans will ever regain the legislature. At least not for decades. He should just be happing being in control of the House for as long as he wants. :P

The Chopp thing I've only heard once, but it was from a pretty good source. Inslee has been planning his ascension for years now though.

Maybe Pam Roach can run again.

Ewww... Pam Roach....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 08, 2008, 01:56:07 AM
Insurance Commissioner: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?f=0&fips=53&elect=6&off=13&year=2008

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Not terribly interest. Kreidler always seems to get about 54%. Adams has been his opponent before, maybe even twice...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 08, 2008, 02:42:32 AM
Kreidler's sort of a weird enigma. I've never met anyone who's ever seen him, and he never has any campaign material.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on September 08, 2008, 03:03:56 AM
^ Yes, McKenna is more likely to be Washington's next Republican Governor than Rossi. I've felt that way for a while. But I'm fairly certain he would lose against Sonntag. That would be a great way to get rid of McKenna. :)

Inslee would be an okay candidate, though I would rather not run candidates from Seattle/Bainbridge when possible... As for Chopp, I hope you're kidding. I kind of doubt the Republicans will ever regain the legislature. At least not for decades. He should just be happing being in control of the House for as long as he wants. :P

The Chopp thing I've only heard once, but it was from a pretty good source. Inslee has been planning his ascension for years now though.

Maybe Pam Roach can run again.

LOL at Pam Roach running for Governor.  I would watch just for the sheer entertainment value.  Anyone who touches her roses is in for it!

My fear is that Sonntag/Inslee/Smith/Chopp/Sims et. al. will bloody one another up during the Democratic Gubernatorial Primary as McKenna glides uncontested through the Republican Primary and then to victory in the general.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 08, 2008, 03:34:05 AM
^ Yes, McKenna is more likely to be Washington's next Republican Governor than Rossi. I've felt that way for a while. But I'm fairly certain he would lose against Sonntag. That would be a great way to get rid of McKenna. :)

Inslee would be an okay candidate, though I would rather not run candidates from Seattle/Bainbridge when possible... As for Chopp, I hope you're kidding. I kind of doubt the Republicans will ever regain the legislature. At least not for decades. He should just be happing being in control of the House for as long as he wants. :P

The Chopp thing I've only heard once, but it was from a pretty good source. Inslee has been planning his ascension for years now though.

Maybe Pam Roach can run again.

LOL at Pam Roach running for Governor.  I would watch just for the sheer entertainment value.  Anyone who touches her roses is in for it!

My fear is that Sonntag/Inslee/Smith/Chopp/Sims et. al. will bloody one another up during the Democratic Gubernatorial Primary as McKenna glides uncontested through the Republican Primary and then to victory in the general.


Even worse than that would be the Democrats bloodying each other up and splitting the vote so badly that McKenna and another relatively sane Republican can both sneak through to the general election.

I suppose on the plus side that would be the end of the Top-Two forever..


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 08, 2008, 03:47:12 AM
^ I would say there is about a 0.5% chance of McKenna getting serious opposition within the primary from another Republican.

As for the rest of that scenario... Smith, too? Ahh. I like him, but I kind of doubt he would take on those guys... I still don't believe Chopp will run. I can't imagine a Democratic candidate who would do worse statewide. Sims would also be an almost guaranteed loss as well.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 08, 2008, 03:57:21 AM
Yea, I'm pretty sure the field would clear for McKenna rather quickly as well, but never underestimate the clusterf**ck that is the WSRP.

And Smith isn't going to run for statewide office while there's still a Democratic majority in DC - it's also why he decided not to run for AG or Pierce County Executive this year.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on September 08, 2008, 11:36:47 AM
Kreidler's sort of a weird enigma. I've never met anyone who's ever seen him, and he never has any campaign material.

I saw him. Once.

He's a pretty quiet person really the only reason any of us knew who he was owned to him being introduced to everyone.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 08, 2008, 04:11:19 PM
Commissioner of Public Lands: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&off=10&elect=6&fips=53&f=0

()

Goldmark does well in parts of Eastern Washington (his home county of Okanogan, as well as Spokane and Whitman counties), but does very poorly in traditionally Democratic parts of Western Washington. If Goldmark wants to win he's gonna need to improve his numbers in the South Sound and coastal counties.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on September 08, 2008, 10:39:37 PM
Commissioner of Public Lands: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&off=10&elect=6&fips=53&f=0

()

Goldmark does well in parts of Eastern Washington (his home county of Okanogan, as well as Spokane and Whitman counties), but does very poorly in traditionally Democratic parts of Western Washington. If Goldmark wants to win he's gonna need to improve his numbers in the South Sound and coastal counties.

Thurston will likely stay for Sutherland in the general, because of our dependence on the government for the local economy people tend to back incumbents on the state-wide level.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: jimrtex on September 09, 2008, 01:26:45 AM
I'd been told that the Tabulator machine separates out any ballots with extraneous marks

That's correct, but at that point they've already been through a hand check and any ballots with potential problems should have been dealt with. There are a very, very small amount that are rejected by the machines, but those are just dealt with by having a substitute ballot sent in its place.
King County reported roughly 2 to 3% write-ins in every legislative race where there was only candidate on the ballot.


Yes, however, they only count who those write-ins were for if someone has filed a Declaration of Write-In candidacy or if it is clear to election workers that a candidate may make the general election ballot.
RCW 29A.24.311 is clear that write-in votes are valid for undeclared candidates, so long as the office being sought can be determined from the ballot.

RCW 29A.60.021 (1) Says that a write-in vote for an undeclared write-in candidate in a general election are not valid if the candidate had lost the primary either as an on-ballot or a declared write-in candidate.  But this is a meaningless restriction, unless write-in votes for other undeclared write-in candidates are valid.

RCW 29A.60.021 (4) says that write-in votes are to be tallied if the number of undervotes and write-in votes is greater than that of an apparent qualified nominee.  While one could literally interpret this to mean that write-in votes don't have to be counted unless it appeared that there were two on-ballot canidates it would produce the following perverse outcome:

Candidate A and B are on the ballot.  Candidate C is not on the ballot.

Candidate A gets 96% of the vote.  Candidate B gets 1% of the vote.   There are 2% write-in votes.  These are examined and it is found that Candidate C has been nominated.

Candidate A gets 96% of the vote.  Candidate B gets 0.5% of the vote.   There are 3% write-in votes.  Since Candidate B does not have 1% of the vote he is not nominated, and therefore for the write-in votes are not tallied.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 09, 2008, 01:31:38 AM
Look, dude, you can quote the RCW's until the cows come home, but I'm telling you right now that the way the counties are interpreting the laws is the way I'm describing them. And that's all that really matters.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: jimrtex on September 09, 2008, 01:42:50 AM
All ballots are looked at in person before being sent through a machine to avoid a situation like this. There are tables and tables of workers who look at ballots that have been filled out incorrectly and fill out substitute ballots that can be read by the counting machines.
In other words, there is no point whatsoever to machine counting.
Statewide Standards on What is a Vote (PDF file) (http://www.secstate.wa.gov/_assets/elections/2008StatewideStandardsonWhatisaVote.pdf)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: jimrtex on September 09, 2008, 01:46:48 AM
you can quote the RCW's until the cows come home, but I'm telling you right now that the way the counties are interpreting the laws is the way I'm describing them. And that's all that really matters.
It doesn't matter whether the counties interpret ballots in a manner that is consistent between counties and complies with the law?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 09, 2008, 01:51:18 AM
you can quote the RCW's until the cows come home, but I'm telling you right now that the way the counties are interpreting the laws is the way I'm describing them. And that's all that really matters.
It doesn't matter whether the counties interpret ballots in a manner that is consistent between counties and complies with the law?

It doesn't matter for practical purposes of the discussion we were having. Maybe they should do it a certain way, but that wasn't my point. My point is that they're doing it the way that I've described, so what they should be doing isn't significant to analyzing what is actually happening.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on September 09, 2008, 02:35:20 AM
Yea, I'm pretty sure the field would clear for McKenna rather quickly as well, but never underestimate the clusterf**ck that is the WSRP.

And Smith isn't going to run for statewide office while there's still a Democratic majority in DC - it's also why he decided not to run for AG or Pierce County Executive this year.

I heard that Smith is tired of traveling to D.C.  Admittedly, that was pre-2006 elections.  In any case, my concerns still stand.  The Dems have a pretty deep bench for Governor once Gregoire leaves, but that isn't necessarily a good thing given the fractious nature of the party.  There will be a scramble for the Democratic nomination.  Hopefully there won't be a major schism afterward. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 09, 2008, 05:57:17 PM
Any Democrat/anti-Republican who doesn't support Sonntag (especially if the Republican is McKenna) is utterly insane.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 16, 2008, 12:58:05 AM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2008181318_webbiaw16.html

lol Republicans


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 24, 2008, 01:02:01 AM
http://www.king5.com/news/specials/politics/stories/NW_092308POB_rossi_republican_label_lawsuit_TP.a6d625f6.html

Idiots


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 25, 2008, 04:54:07 AM
^ lol! Like any WA party chairman, Pelz is just another loser who couldn't get elected to a real office. Okay, he was on the county council but he lost his re-election effort in a primary etc etc who cares.

Did anybody watch the debate? They're both pretty boring people.




Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on September 26, 2008, 12:34:32 AM
Did anybody watch the debate? They're both pretty boring people.

I did.  The level of hostility between the candidates was notable but not surprising.  They started attacking one another in their opening statements, not waiting for the question and answer period.

A good moment for Rossi and a bad one for Gregoire came on crime.  Gregoire tried to suggest Rossi had never done anything about crime.  He gave a long list of the police guilds which had endorsed him, including the King County and Seattle Police Guilds and was able to list several law enforcement related accomplishments.  It was an effective rebut to her attack.

Gregoire, for her part, did a good job exposing Rossi's fraud of a transportation plan in spite of her problems on that issue.  She showed a strong grasp of policy.  Her answer on energy was emblematic of her approach -- a recounting of her accomplishments and the policy specifics she emphasized, followed by an attack on Rossi's record.  There were several issue questions:  energy, education, health care -- where Rossi basically went AWOL.  Voters who closely follow education issues are not going to be impressed by Rossi attacking Gregoire and then sentimentally rambling on about his late father who used to be a teacher.  It doesn't tell us anything about his education plans.  OTOH, for voters from who don't focus on education, Rossi's answer might have sounded heartfelt.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 26, 2008, 04:11:22 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQ1p3tLKE-A

I wish Gregoire had good commercials like that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 27, 2008, 01:28:46 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQ1p3tLKE-A

I wish Gregoire had good commercials like that.

I just saw that on KIRO - great ad. Ditching her '06 ad people for this new team was a great decision.

In other news, Sutherland forgot to show up to a debate with Goldmark and the Democrats' lawsuit was laughed out of court.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 27, 2008, 01:42:49 AM
and the Democrats' lawsuit was laughed out of court.

I really feel bad for all of the local Dem officials who had to pretend that wasn't the bullsh**ttiest bullsh**t in the history of bullsh**t.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 27, 2008, 03:36:49 AM
and the Democrats' lawsuit was laughed out of court.

I really feel bad for all of the local Dem officials who had to pretend that wasn't the bullsh**ttiest bullsh**t in the history of bullsh**t.

Fortunately for us, the Average Joe seemed to be under the impression that there was at least some sort of legal basis for it (why else would it have been filed, right? They wouldn't just file something without any facts to back it up!)

The underlying goal, however, was to get the general public more aware that GOP=Republican, so they kind of succeeded in that sense. It didn't really get that much coverage though, what with the crazy national events going on.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 28, 2008, 08:17:04 PM
SUSA polls the SPI and AG races:

Dorn: 40%
Bergeson: 35%
Other: 7% (WTF?)
Undecided: 18%

McKenna: 53%
Ladenburg: 39%
Undecided: 8%

I'm surprised to see Dorn doing so well, but I'm also skeptical of the poll's accuracy...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 30, 2008, 05:20:32 PM
Gregoire actually had a good ad on the radio today! :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 30, 2008, 06:51:20 PM
Gregoire actually had a good ad on the radio today! :)

Was it the one about Rossi praying for Bush's economic plan?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 30, 2008, 08:35:31 PM
^ Yes. She needs a TV version of it. Not only does it "take advantage" (doesn't seem like the right term, but whatever) of the current economic situation, it subtly reminds voters that Rossi is a Craswell type that mixes religion with government.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 30, 2008, 09:12:33 PM
Hopefully she can capitalize on the BIAW stuff that came out today. I'm not holding my breath though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on October 03, 2008, 05:27:30 PM
Yea, I'm pretty sure the field would clear for McKenna rather quickly as well, but never underestimate the clusterf**ck that is the WSRP.

It doesn't seem as if McKenna is interested in winning his party's 2012 nomination for governor (http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/politicsnorthwest/2008/10/03/mckenna_files_lawsuit_against.html).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 03, 2008, 06:07:07 PM
Yea, I'm pretty sure the field would clear for McKenna rather quickly as well, but never underestimate the clusterf**ck that is the WSRP.

It doesn't seem as if McKenna is interested in winning his party's 2012 nomination for governor (http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/politicsnorthwest/2008/10/03/mckenna_files_lawsuit_against.html).

Or, alternatively, is very interested in winning the 2012 General Election.

Rossi losing ain't necessarily bad news for him, and few Republicans are probably going to care about that linked thing.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: BM on October 13, 2008, 08:56:31 PM
What's the latest news on this race?  I know it's been considered the most heated election this year.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Daniel Z on October 13, 2008, 09:06:14 PM
What's the latest news on this race?  I know it's been considered the most heated election this year.

For most of the race Rossi has dominated in the media. Finaly Gregoire is on the air. I fear it will be too little too late though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 14, 2008, 05:52:26 PM
Someone asked me to send them Secretary of State Massacre results a bit back, but I honestly forget who.  So, I'm posting them here.

Here are the towns Osgood carried:

1. Nespelem, Okanogan County: 59-24 Osgood
2. Bingen, Klickitat County: 63-28 Osgood
3. Mabton, Yakima County: 59-29 Osgood
4. Port Townsend, Jefferson County: 56-37 Osgood
5. Wilkeson, Pierce County: 48-40 Osgood
6. Ruston, Pierce County: 51-44 Osgood
7. Langley, Island County: 50-43 Osgood
8. Wapato, Yakima County: 48-41 Osgood
9. Index, Snohomish County: 47-43 Osgood
10. La Conner, Skagit County: 48-45 Osgood
11. White Salmon, Klickitat County: 49-47 Osgood
12. Toppenish, Yakima County: 45-44 Osgood
13. Elmer City, Okanogan County: 45-44 Osgood
14. Granger, Yakima County: 44-43 Osgood

Basically:

Ethnic villages - Hispanic (3, 8, 12, 14) and Native American (1)

Working-class areas with Dem heritage - 2, 5, 6, 11 (Osgood did semi-OK in this type of place, yay straight ticket voting)

Hippieland - 4, 7, 10

<5% margins in Bainbridge Island, Bellingham, Coulee Dam, Kelso, Roslyn, Seattle, Skykomish and Winthrop.  Latah also counts, at 41-37, but the 37% is Montgomery (Osgood didn't break 20%)

---

Hope that's what you were looking for, Whoever.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 14, 2008, 06:01:53 PM
How many votes were there in Latah?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 14, 2008, 08:38:01 PM

46 - Reed 19, Montgomery 17, Osgood 9, Greene 1

Osgood also placed third in the towns of George (43 votes), Lamont (63 including surrounding rural) and Waverly (25).

He won all congressional districts (the 7th was 49-46), and all LDs but the 37th.

Relatedly, these results really make it clear where Gregoire's hurting.  Osgood actually overperformed Gregoire in nine towns -- Almira, Hamilton, Kettle Falls, Mesa, Northport, Riverside, Roy, Wilkeson.  Of those, only Kettle Falls had more than 100 voters (383).  Still, more dangerously, there were a lot of places where Gregoire just barely outperformed Osgood, including parts of the Cowlitz, the Yakima Valley, the basin land of Central Washington, etc.  Unlike those little towns, those places have population and also are microcosms of really important demographics.

Her 2004 problem with affluent suburbanites has turned to a problem with culturally conservative small-town voters (and Hispanics), including some normally straight-ticket ones.  This is why I personally think the stem cell ads were dumb -- that type of voter is really, really queasy about cultural issues.  Cowlitz County specifically h8s anything that could possibly be construed as abortion/suicide/whatever

I know she's trying to pad her margins in the suburbs, but I think that was a disasterous way of doing it.  My two cents.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 15, 2008, 02:44:11 AM
I can assure you that everything you're saying is 100% correct in regards to targeting and advertising. You alone easily possess more knowledge in this regard than the entire Gregoire campaign combined.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 17, 2008, 12:00:57 AM
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2008/july-dec08/wa_gov_10-16.html (http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2008/july-dec08/wa_gov_10-16.html)

Gregoire (clearly French) is attacking Rossi for being Italian? Gregoire embodies so much that I hate and Rossi embodies so much that I love.  :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 17, 2008, 01:18:37 AM
Gregoire never actually, um, what's the word... did that. The State Party put up a movie attacking Rossi's connections to the BIAW which vaguely parodied The Sopranos.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 18, 2008, 06:39:44 AM
Some one has this in their sig;

()

How dreadfully, awfully 1950's can you get... I mean... urgh...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 18, 2008, 10:01:20 AM
Some one has this in their sig;

()

How dreadfully, awfully 1950's can you get... I mean... urgh...

Torie has it in his signature.

I don't get what's 1950s about it. Is it the name "Dino" in handwriting? Maybe because he's sitting at a diner counter...? Other than that, I don't see it.

Al is just one of many that fears the power of Dino.  ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ronnie on October 18, 2008, 10:37:49 AM
Some one has this in their sig;

()

How dreadfully, awfully 1950's can you get... I mean... urgh...

Hi!  :)

Keystone, stop confusing me and Torie.  :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 18, 2008, 10:38:04 AM
Some one has this in their sig;

()

How dreadfully, awfully 1950's can you get... I mean... urgh...

Torie has it in his signature.

I don't get what's 1950s about it. Is it the name "Dino" in handwriting? Maybe because he's sitting at a diner counter...? Other than that, I don't see it.

Al is just one of many that fears the power of Dino.  ;)

I think it's the Mr. Rogers haircut.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 18, 2008, 02:20:57 PM
Some one has this in their sig;

()

How dreadfully, awfully 1950's can you get... I mean... urgh...

Hi!  :)

Keystone, stop confusing me and Torie.  :P

Ah! Sorry!  :)

Some one has this in their sig;

()

How dreadfully, awfully 1950's can you get... I mean... urgh...

Torie has it in his signature.

I don't get what's 1950s about it. Is it the name "Dino" in handwriting? Maybe because he's sitting at a diner counter...? Other than that, I don't see it.

Al is just one of many that fears the power of Dino.  ;)

I think it's the Mr. Rogers haircut.

...that many people in politics have.  :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 18, 2008, 02:58:23 PM
Dino should stick to his Adolf cut.  It's appropriate for him.

Anyway, I've decided I'm probably going to vote for Osgood. Sam Ree(tar)d is just such a piece of sh*t and write-ins aren't as fun.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 18, 2008, 03:14:54 PM
I don't get what's 1950s about it. Is it the name "Dino" in handwriting? Maybe because he's sitting at a diner counter...? Other than that, I don't see it.

The haircut is one thing, obviously. So is the setting, so is the shirt (though there's no tie). But there's more to it than that; the typefaces seem very fifties (as does the colour of the lettering) and so do the colours in the photograph.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 18, 2008, 03:22:10 PM
I don't get what's 1950s about it. Is it the name "Dino" in handwriting? Maybe because he's sitting at a diner counter...? Other than that, I don't see it.

The haircut is one thing, obviously. So is the setting, so is the shirt (though there's no tie). But there's more to it than that; the typefaces seem very fifties (as does the colour of the lettering) and so do the colours in the photograph.

The shirt looks normal to me. I wasn't aware that the color yellow (color of the typeface) and the color of the photo were '50s-esque.  :P

But hey, if this is the best that you can throw at Dino...   :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on October 19, 2008, 04:23:32 AM
I don't get what's 1950s about it. Is it the name "Dino" in handwriting? Maybe because he's sitting at a diner counter...? Other than that, I don't see it.

The haircut is one thing, obviously. So is the setting, so is the shirt (though there's no tie). But there's more to it than that; the typefaces seem very fifties (as does the colour of the lettering) and so do the colours in the photograph.

The shirt looks normal to me. I wasn't aware that the color yellow (color of the typeface) and the color of the photo were '50s-esque.  :P

But hey, if this is the best that you can throw at Dino...   :P

Ok, how about the facts that:
1) He really knows nothing about how to run a state governement
2) Has not put out very many concrete plans
3) The plans he has outlined are seen as being unrealistic and slow-witted
4) He is horribly desperate to get the governorship (Hillary's desire for the presidency is nothing compared to Dino's want for the governorship, I think he would sell his children off if it came down to it).
5) What has he done over the past four years to be constructive and help the state? Not much, instead he has been giving "informational" speeches (of course he wouldn't campaign)
6) Tries to portray himself as a moderate eventhough its obvious he isn't

The list goes on and on...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 19, 2008, 11:28:42 AM


Ok, how about the facts that:
1) He really knows nothing about how to run a state governement

Subjective. Can't be proven.

Quote
2) Has not put out very many concrete plans

Examples?

Quote
3) The plans he has outlined are seen as being unrealistic and slow-witted

"Are seen as..."

Well, obviously not the case with the voters. Again, this isn't really a "fact."

Quote
4) He is horribly desperate to get the governorship (Hillary's desire for the presidency is nothing compared to Dino's want for the governorship, I think he would sell his children off if it came down to it).

...looks like enough people agree that Washington desperately needs him.  ;)

Quote
5) What has he done over the past four years to be constructive and help the state? Not much, instead he has been giving "informational" speeches (of course he wouldn't campaign)

What would you like him to do?

Quote
6) Tries to portray himself as a moderate eventhough its obvious he isn't

Ok but I don't consider that a pressing problem. It's more of the fault of the voters if they can't see through it. Maybe they do see through it and just don't care.

Whatever the case, these arguments still aren't really that strong against the guy. We're going to have policy and style differences but my point is that the guy is clearly a very strong, capable candidate and WA Dems/Gregoire supporters are clearly worried.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 19, 2008, 11:51:40 AM
  He's also almost not white.  The Barack Obama of Washington state!  For real.

Because he's part Eskimo and Italian? Ok...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 19, 2008, 11:56:58 AM
  He's also almost not white.  The Barack Obama of Washington state!  For real.

Because he's part Eskimo and Italian? Ok...

Around here, that counts as almost not white.  He also has a funny name.  He's a foreigner, but we're tolerant of that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 19, 2008, 11:59:27 AM
My main concern about Rossi getting elected is fairly esoteric. The Democratic Governor streak since Booth Gardner has helped create one of the best state governments in the country. The same sort of people have been holding administrative and bureaucratic posts since the mid-1980's, so they've become very good at it. Governing magazine ranked our state government as one of the three best in the nation (along with Virginia and Utah).

If Rossi gets elected though, he's promised to cut 40% of state employees, and then the rest will get replaced in the typical party-changing fashion that both sides do when they come to power. Why anyone would want to do that to a state government that works so well is mind-boggling to me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 19, 2008, 11:59:48 AM
  He's also almost not white.  The Barack Obama of Washington state!  For real.

Because he's part Eskimo and Italian? Ok...

Around here, that counts as almost not white.  He also has a funny name.  He's a foreigner, but we're tolerant of that.

You agree about the awful fiftiesness of that photothingy?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 19, 2008, 12:10:46 PM
  He's also almost not white.  The Barack Obama of Washington state!  For real.

Because he's part Eskimo and Italian? Ok...

Around here, that counts as almost not white.  He also has a funny name.  He's a foreigner, but we're tolerant of that.

Just for the record (for those not aware that you're joking) - He's not a foreigner.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 19, 2008, 03:23:13 PM
Wow, the Spokesman Review endorsed Gregoire today. What a pleasant surprise. :)

lol @ McCain/Gregoire voters in Eastern Washington.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 19, 2008, 03:39:32 PM
  He's also almost not white.  The Barack Obama of Washington state!  For real.

Because he's part Eskimo and Italian? Ok...

Around here, that counts as almost not white.  He also has a funny name.  He's a foreigner, but we're tolerant of that.

Just for the record (for those not aware that you're joking) - He's not a foreigner.

I'm not sure we can believe a man with so many foreigners in his signature.

Rossi's also part Native American, not "Eskimo," which is an offensive term.

Please take your racism and leave our topic.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: HardRCafé on October 19, 2008, 05:05:19 PM
Gregoire never actually, um, what's the word... did that. The State Party put up a movie attacking Rossi's connections to the BIAW which vaguely parodied The Sopranos.

I admired her strong repudiation thereof.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on October 21, 2008, 01:36:24 PM
Phil in terms of plans I was referring to his transportation plan, which has been attacked by all sides and basically all the experts. And I really do see a problem with people who claim to be moderates when in reality they aren't. They are purposefully misrepresenting themselves in an effort to get elected. The voting public has enough trouble as it is without that clouding their judgement.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on October 21, 2008, 05:38:16 PM
Oh by the way does anyone know how the state senate and house races are going? Is the trend towards Republicans or Democrats gaining seats? Or does it look like there will few if any changes (seems likely to me at this point). A supermajority would be nice as insurance against a possible Rossi win.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 21, 2008, 07:18:08 PM
There are really only two competitive State Senate races. Carrell (R) is locked in a tight re-election battle as always, and Rasmussen (D) is facing an aggressive challenger (and on top of that no one really like Rasmussen). Republicans would like to think they can take out Kastama (D) and Haugen (D), but they're not in any real trouble. Weird things might happen in the 40th (Open D). Democrats should be able to retain it though.

There's a number of competitive contests for the State House. Anderson (R) is locked in a surprisingly tough fight (maybe he should stop the hanky panky with Sen. Pflug - oops, did I say that?) Other Republicans who might be in trouble are Ahern and the open seats in the 17th and the 25th. Maybe the two in the 10th as well, but probably not. Democrats need to be concerned about Barlow, Loomis, Goodman, Simpson and the open seat in the 26th and possibly the ones in the 35th and 41st.

So overall I'd give the Senate a net change of +0 to both sides, but if anything were to happen it would be D +1 (Carrell). In the House it's probably going to be a Republican net gain of one or two. But a lot will depend on how influential Obama is with down-ticket races.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 21, 2008, 08:32:56 PM
My state legislators are f**king each other? How do you know?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 21, 2008, 08:36:43 PM
My state legislators are f**king each other? How do you know?

Open secret down in Olympia. And the 5th District Republican Party.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 21, 2008, 08:41:59 PM
and I thought the Irons family was as weird as Sammamish/East Kingco politics would ever get


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 21, 2008, 08:54:45 PM
do you know how long they've been at it? Anderson is married... Pflug was until recently (is this what ended it?).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on October 21, 2008, 08:58:45 PM
There are really only two competitive State Senate races. Carrell (R) is locked in a tight re-election battle as always, and Rasmussen (D) is facing an aggressive challenger (and on top of that no one really like Rasmussen). Republicans would like to think they can take out Kastama (D) and Haugen (D), but they're not in any real trouble. Weird things might happen in the 40th (Open D). Democrats should be able to retain it though.

There's a number of competitive contests for the State House. Anderson (R) is locked in a surprisingly tough fight (maybe he should stop the hanky panky with Sen. Pflug - oops, did I say that?) Other Republicans who might be in trouble are Ahern and the open seats in the 17th and the 25th. Maybe the two in the 10th as well, but probably not. Democrats need to be concerned about Barlow, Loomis, Goodman, Simpson and the open seat in the 26th and possibly the ones in the 35th and 41st.

So overall I'd give the Senate a net change of +0 to both sides, but if anything were to happen it would be D +1 (Carrell). In the House it's probably going to be a Republican net gain of one or two. But a lot will depend on how influential Obama is with down-ticket races.

I live in the 35th, you have no reason to be afraid, Finn has strong support and his opponent is crazy radical (though will still likely get around 40-45% of the vote).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 21, 2008, 09:08:56 PM
do you know how long they've been at it? Anderson is married... Pflug was until recently (is this what ended it?).

Yup.

Started sometime in the last two years is my understanding. DeBolt is also messing around with committee staff.

Also, if anyone was curious, Gregoire is sick.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 21, 2008, 09:13:37 PM
do you know how long they've been at it? Anderson is married... Pflug was until recently (is this what ended it?).

Yup.

Started sometime in the last two years is my understanding. DeBolt is also messing around with committee staff.

Also, if anyone was curious, Gregoire is sick.

Is there a reason Democrats never choose to pursue these things? They knew what West was up to, left it alone, and he ended up as a disaster for Spokane.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on October 21, 2008, 09:15:29 PM
do you know how long they've been at it? Anderson is married... Pflug was until recently (is this what ended it?).

Yup.

Started sometime in the last two years is my understanding. DeBolt is also messing around with committee staff.

Also, if anyone was curious, Gregoire is sick.

Is there a reason Democrats never choose to pursue these things? They knew what West was up to, left it alone, and he ended up as a disaster for Spokane.
If that got released about Debolt his reelection could have been in serious jeopardy as Rechner was doing relatively well against him in his district...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: HardRCafé on October 21, 2008, 09:30:07 PM
Is there a reason Democrats never choose to pursue these things? They knew what West was up to, left it alone, and he ended up as a disaster for Spokane.

But he was so good for business!

Disgraceful.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 21, 2008, 09:31:42 PM
do you know how long they've been at it? Anderson is married... Pflug was until recently (is this what ended it?).

Yup.

Started sometime in the last two years is my understanding. DeBolt is also messing around with committee staff.

Also, if anyone was curious, Gregoire is sick.

Is there a reason Democrats never choose to pursue these things? They knew what West was up to, left it alone, and he ended up as a disaster for Spokane.

Because there are also several Democrats who haven't exactly kept their pants on.

We hide their scandals, they hide ours.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on October 22, 2008, 02:29:28 AM
do you know how long they've been at it? Anderson is married... Pflug was until recently (is this what ended it?).

Yup.

Started sometime in the last two years is my understanding. DeBolt is also messing around with committee staff.

Also, if anyone was curious, Gregoire is sick.

Is there a reason Democrats never choose to pursue these things? They knew what West was up to, left it alone, and he ended up as a disaster for Spokane.

Because there are also several Democrats who haven't exactly kept their pants on.

We hide their scandals, they hide ours.

Uh oh.  Has Gregoire's cancer come back?

What would really make me chuckle is if Jamie Pedersen was messing around with Marko Liias.   LOL.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 22, 2008, 05:25:30 PM
Back to my Sonntag question--if Rossi wins this year do you guys think it's likely that he would run in 2012? It would help me sleep at night knowing it was only a matter of time before he destroyed that slimy little prick. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 22, 2008, 05:27:30 PM
Back to my Sonntag question--if Rossi wins this year do you guys think it's likely that he would run in 2012? It would help me sleep at night knowing it was only a matter of time before he destroyed that slimy little prick. :)

He's definitely going to run. That's the only reason he's been putting out signs and billboards and crap this year.

Inslee, of course, will also run.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 22, 2008, 05:30:04 PM
Back to my Sonntag question--if Rossi wins this year do you guys think it's likely that he would run in 2012? It would help me sleep at night knowing it was only a matter of time before he destroyed that slimy little prick. :)

He's definitely going to run. That's the only reason he's been putting out signs and billboards and crap this year.

Inslee, of course, will also run.

Blah, Inslee should stick to Congress.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on October 22, 2008, 09:54:01 PM
You all are talking (well, typing) as if Governor Gregoire is doomed to defeat (at least coming up with scenarios involving Dino Rossi as a possible rising star for GOP hopes in 2012).  Is she?  I haven't seen any new polls out, but the most recent one I thought I have seen has her leading by about 1% -basically a dead-heat. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Daniel Z on October 22, 2008, 10:07:43 PM
You all are talking (well, typing) as if Governor Gregoire is doomed to defeat (at least coming up with scenarios involving Dino Rossi as a possible rising star for GOP hopes in 2012).  Is she?  I haven't seen any new polls out, but the most recent one I thought I have seen has her leading by about 1% -basically a dead-heat. 

The latest poll that had Gregoire by 1 also had Obama by 16. If Rossi is really running 15 point ahead of McCain, Gregoire is indeed doomed. Plus every other tv ad is a Rossi ad. I think Rossi would be more credible in 2016 if he wins reelection.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ronnie on October 22, 2008, 11:51:48 PM
It honestly depends on how well Obama performs here.  I certainly hope Rossi wins (looks at signature).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 23, 2008, 12:31:12 AM
You all are talking (well, typing) as if Governor Gregoire is doomed to defeat (at least coming up with scenarios involving Dino Rossi as a possible rising star for GOP hopes in 2012).  Is she?  I haven't seen any new polls out, but the most recent one I thought I have seen has her leading by about 1% -basically a dead-heat. 

The latest poll that had Gregoire by 1 also had Obama by 16. If Rossi is really running 15 point ahead of McCain, Gregoire is indeed doomed. Plus every other tv ad is a Rossi ad. I think Rossi would be more credible in 2016 if he wins reelection.

Really? I think Gregoire is more like to win under Obama +10 as opposed to Obama +15.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 23, 2008, 02:45:41 AM
Burner up 50-46 in latest SUSA poll.

I don't really believe it, but perhaps this race will be closer than I thought.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Bacon King on October 23, 2008, 09:10:52 AM
You all are talking (well, typing) as if Governor Gregoire is doomed to defeat (at least coming up with scenarios involving Dino Rossi as a possible rising star for GOP hopes in 2012).  Is she?  I haven't seen any new polls out, but the most recent one I thought I have seen has her leading by about 1% -basically a dead-heat. 

The latest poll that had Gregoire by 1 also had Obama by 16. If Rossi is really running 15 point ahead of McCain, Gregoire is indeed doomed. Plus every other tv ad is a Rossi ad. I think Rossi would be more credible in 2016 if he wins reelection.

Really? I think Gregoire is more like to win under Obama +10 as opposed to Obama +15.

Do explain.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 23, 2008, 02:42:51 PM
You all are talking (well, typing) as if Governor Gregoire is doomed to defeat (at least coming up with scenarios involving Dino Rossi as a possible rising star for GOP hopes in 2012).  Is she?  I haven't seen any new polls out, but the most recent one I thought I have seen has her leading by about 1% -basically a dead-heat. 

The latest poll that had Gregoire by 1 also had Obama by 16. If Rossi is really running 15 point ahead of McCain, Gregoire is indeed doomed. Plus every other tv ad is a Rossi ad. I think Rossi would be more credible in 2016 if he wins reelection.

Really? I think Gregoire is more like to win under Obama +10 as opposed to Obama +15.

Do explain.

The less young anti-old voters that show up, the better for Gregoire. And better for McCain, too, but he doesn't really have a chance regardless of that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on October 24, 2008, 12:42:13 AM
On another note, I noticed that Gregoire is winning the newspaper endorsement war this time.  Besides the Spokane Spokesman-Review, she also was endorsed by The Everett Herald, The Tacoma News Tribune and The Columbian (in Vancouver, WA) -- three of the biggest cities in Washington located in Snohomish, Pierce and Clark counties -- key areas in a statewide race.  These endorsements are reversals from 2004.  The Seattle PI and The Olympian reprised their endorsement of Gregoire.

Rossi got the endorsement of the state's biggest paper, The Seattle Times, which should be renamed The Estate Tax Times since that is their litmus test for endorsement.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 24, 2008, 11:22:06 AM
Turnout:

King................15%
Pierce..............10.5%*
Snohomish...........10.5% (without Oct. 23 numbers)
Spokane.............21%
Clark...............16%
Yakima..............22%
Kittitas............23%

* - Likely lags due to RCV


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 27, 2008, 03:25:33 PM
UW poll, 10/18-26, 600 RV

Obama 55%, McCain 34%

Gregoire 51%, Rossi 46%

Initiative 1000 ("Death with Dignity") leads 56% to 38%

Initiative 985 (Eyman's congestion thing) leads 45% to 43%

Initiative 1029 (SEIU's homecare training thing) leads 65% to 20% (which may be the best-performing initiative I ever vote 'no' on)

Sound Transit proposition (what's the sample size on that?) leads 50% to 43%

The UW poll actually did kind of OK in 2006, better than I expected.  It predicted the initiatives fairly well.  I think we can pretty clearly say that I-1000 is passing, I-1029 is passing, and I-985 is a toss-up.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 27, 2008, 03:28:21 PM
I-1029 is pretty terrible. Oh well.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 27, 2008, 03:33:35 PM
To answer my own rhetorical question, +/-6.7%.  lol.

Yeah, I get the impression that people think I-1029 sounds good (which it does) and the only voters who are going "no" are the staunch anti-government types, always-vote-noers, and the few people who read newspapers enough to know how badly it will screw over folks with autistic kids.  Bleh.

I'm also a little disappointed that Eyman's thing is passing in a poll with a pretty clear left-ward tilt.  If Prop. 1 fails and that passes, I may have to get out the punching pillow.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on October 27, 2008, 03:59:22 PM
I had a very difficult time with I-1029, so much so that I did not vote on it.  On one hand, I feel that if we had some manna from heaven funding source it would be a good investment.  But in this economic environment I just don't feel comfortable with another mandate lacking a realistic and defined funding source.  Senior care is important but sadly there are other priorities I would put first.  Where are we going to get the money for this?

If those Gregoire/Rossi numbers are accurate I would be very happy.  Unfortunately, I think the race is slightly closer than that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 27, 2008, 04:49:34 PM
I-985 doesn't seem like something that should be a statewide initiative.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on October 27, 2008, 05:36:47 PM
Breaking News -- Judge rules Rossi must give a deposition about Buildergate BEFORE the election.

Quote
October 27, 2008

In a written decision, Judge Paris Kallas said today that Republican gubernatorial challenger Dino Rossi must be deposed before election day in the Buildergate lawsuit, which alleges the Republican illegally coordinated with the Building Industry Association of Washington (BIAW) to raise supposedly independent funds that now benefit his campaign.

From the judge's decision:

As to the remaining challenge, Mr. Rossi seeks a protection order, postponing his deposition until after the Nov. 4 election. He argues that a pre-election deposition unduly burdens him by depriving him of critical campaign time. But for the reasons stated in this court's Oct. 27 order, granting early discovery, such burden is outweighed by the purposes of the Fair Campaign Practices Act. It is precisely because Mr. Rossi seeks public office that he must bear the burden of the contemplated deposition. The attorneys shall cooperate in scheduling the deposition and it shall be limited to a reasonable length, as well as limited in scope to issues related to potential pre-election relief.


The decision is a major victory for supporters of Democratic Gov. Chris Gregoire, who hope Rossi's testimony in the suit could aid in Gregoire's re-election campaign. Even if the deposition doesn't yield any information detrimental to the Rossi campaign, it does, however, ensure another week of headlines about the lawsuit.

Kallas' decision comes the same day as a new poll shows Gregoire leading Rossi 51 percent to 45 percent.

More to come.

http://crosscut.com/blog/crosscut/18603/ (http://crosscut.com/blog/crosscut/18603/)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 27, 2008, 05:40:29 PM
Bad news for Dino. Something like this normally wouldn't matter, but when it comes to Gregoire vs. Rossi even a few hundred voters changing their minds could decide the election. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Nutmeg on October 27, 2008, 06:37:04 PM
Is there any way this thread could receive a new title?  The "chaos" has nearly run its course.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on October 27, 2008, 08:35:24 PM
Is there any way this thread could receive a new title?  The "chaos" has nearly run its course.

In 2004 the chaos lasted until Spring of 2005 after the election.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Nutmeg on October 27, 2008, 09:15:37 PM
Is there any way this thread could receive a new title?  The "chaos" has nearly run its course.
In 2004 the chaos lasted until Spring of 2005 after the election.

Fingers crossed that it won't happen again.

In other news, there was a segment on this race on the national news this evening (ABC, I think), but it was on in a crowded restaurant where I was having dinner, so I couldn't hear it.  I only caught the part about Rossi's "GOP Party" ploy.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 27, 2008, 10:39:11 PM
Is there any way this thread could receive a new title?  The "chaos" has nearly run its course.

Noted.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on October 28, 2008, 12:50:39 AM
I like the title.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 28, 2008, 04:26:09 PM
My Dad ended a phone call with me today with, "Rossi - GOP in Washington." Pretty random considering he wasn't told of my interest. Then again, my Dad was obsessed with Rossi/the recount fiasco in 2004 (as well as the loss of Tom Daschle).

The movement is spreading...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on October 28, 2008, 04:54:32 PM
My Dad ended a phone call with me today with, "Rossi - GOP in Washington." Pretty random considering he wasn't told of my interest. Then again, my Dad was obsessed with Rossi/the recount fiasco in 2004 (as well as the loss of Tom Daschle).

The movement is spreading...

You have given me a new found energy to work against Rossi. Thank you.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 28, 2008, 07:48:57 PM
My Dad ended a phone call with me today with, "Rossi - GOP in Washington." Pretty random considering he wasn't told of my interest. Then again, my Dad was obsessed with Rossi/the recount fiasco in 2004 (as well as the loss of Tom Daschle).

The movement is spreading...

You have given me a new found energy to work against Rossi. Thank you.

...

I don't know if that was serious or not but if it was, that says a lot about you. I don't even know you and you really don't know me (I can't think of many times when we've ever interacted) but I'm your motivation against a candidate? Sad.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: DownWithTheLeft on October 28, 2008, 08:45:49 PM
My Dad ended a phone call with me today with, "Rossi - GOP in Washington." Pretty random considering he wasn't told of my interest. Then again, my Dad was obsessed with Rossi/the recount fiasco in 2004 (as well as the loss of Tom Daschle).

The movement is spreading...
Nothing has ever been more satisfying to me in politics than the defeat of Tom Daschle


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on October 28, 2008, 09:26:29 PM
Many of us were equally satisfied with the defeat of Rick Santorum in 2006.

I was and still am angry about a certain fiasco in Florida in 2000.  It was an election which actually impacted me and the consequences for our nation turned out to be disastrous.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 28, 2008, 09:34:10 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-t6YRbHcyQ

Not something you want in the last week of a close race...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 28, 2008, 09:45:12 PM
Many of us were equally satisfied with the defeat of Rick Santorum in 2006.


Good for you.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 29, 2008, 12:17:37 AM
SUSA says Gregoire up 2: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bde668c1-54fa-4303-89aa-7d69ad6e91a0

Strategic Vision agrees: http://strategicvision.biz/political/washington_poll_102908.htm


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 29, 2008, 01:23:29 AM
Sutherland only up by 2 as well :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 29, 2008, 12:27:21 PM
Seattle Times endorsed McCraw. I'm starting to worry a little about Owen...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 29, 2008, 01:37:11 PM
Seattle Times endorsed McCraw. I'm starting to worry a little about Owen...

Based on what the Lt. Governor actually does, McCraw would probably be further to the left than Owen...unless she became Gov, then different story.  I doubt it will be competitive, but I do think it will be closer than expected.  Still, Owen was just totally crushing her in a previous poll, so...

Bergeson/Dorn voters don't seem to have much political correlation (other than far-righters for Dorn as an anti-Bergeson vote maybe) but it does sure have another:  the less establishment (in candidate, and vote frequency, speed and turnout, too), the much more likely a Dorn vote.

I find it interesting how awful McKenna is crushing Ladenburg (I expected that to tighten), and that Dorn seems to be polling ahead in several polls now.  Also kind of happy to see I-985 sucking, although I think initiative polling is always a dangerous game.  Wish there were a State Treaz poll.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 29, 2008, 02:42:06 PM
Seattle Times endorsed McCraw. I'm starting to worry a little about Owen...

The Times is a GOP rag.

I like Owen just fine. McCraw isn't ready to be Governor. Owen will do well in areas that other Democrats don't, which will make up for poor numbers in Seattle. I don't think he has a ton to worry about.

I saw a McKenna commercial today. Seems like a waste of money unless he's planning a run for Governor, which is probably the case.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on October 29, 2008, 10:23:31 PM
My Dad ended a phone call with me today with, "Rossi - GOP in Washington." Pretty random considering he wasn't told of my interest. Then again, my Dad was obsessed with Rossi/the recount fiasco in 2004 (as well as the loss of Tom Daschle).

The movement is spreading...

You have given me a new found energy to work against Rossi. Thank you.

...

I don't know if that was serious or not but if it was, that says a lot about you. I don't even know you and you really don't know me (I can't think of many times when we've ever interacted) but I'm your motivation against a candidate? Sad.

It is bad that I am motivated to work harder because I want to stop a person I see as incompetant getting a national following and thus a national influence? Rossi is already scandal-ridden, I don't see why he even deserves the chance to lead when already he has failed America trying to get there.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 30, 2008, 12:18:22 AM
My Dad ended a phone call with me today with, "Rossi - GOP in Washington." Pretty random considering he wasn't told of my interest. Then again, my Dad was obsessed with Rossi/the recount fiasco in 2004 (as well as the loss of Tom Daschle).

The movement is spreading...

You have given me a new found energy to work against Rossi. Thank you.

...

I don't know if that was serious or not but if it was, that says a lot about you. I don't even know you and you really don't know me (I can't think of many times when we've ever interacted) but I'm your motivation against a candidate? Sad.

It is bad that I am motivated to work harder because I want to stop a person I see as incompetant getting a national following and thus a national influence? Rossi is already scandal-ridden, I don't see why he even deserves the chance to lead when already he has failed America trying to get there.

It just warms my heart that you guys resort to calling people that you don't like "incompetent" (look up the spelling next time you want to throw that one around). You guys just love throwing insults around rather loosely.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: HardRCafé on October 30, 2008, 12:25:12 AM

Nice try.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorialsopinion/2008328186_edit30rossi.html

Now, Gregoire and her casino dealings, on the other hand.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 30, 2008, 12:38:21 AM

Nice try.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorialsopinion/2008328186_edit30rossi.html

Your evidence is an editorial from the Seattle Times?

Wow


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: HardRCafé on October 30, 2008, 01:01:55 AM
Post-Intelligencer does not paint a whole lot rosier picture:

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/385589_rossi30.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 30, 2008, 07:04:53 AM
Nowhere else in the world, outside of the state itself, are people so obsessed with Washington politics.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on October 31, 2008, 11:13:41 PM
How is Proposition 1 (aka, Sound Transit expansion) faring in the polls right now? 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 01, 2008, 04:05:30 PM
How is Proposition 1 (aka, Sound Transit expansion) faring in the polls right now? 

Generally passing, but we haven't had a reliable one in a while.

Now, confirmation that Gregoire has a youth problem (http://www.secstate.wa.gov/elections/mockelection/results8002.aspx?bt=2):  Rossi leads 51% to 49% among K-12 students.  Obama is ahead 61% to 33%.  (:P)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 01, 2008, 04:53:20 PM
"Initiative Measure No. 975 concerns vegetables"

omg adorable


ahahahahaha, Jason Osgood at 49.8%!


SPI decided by 4 votes. Oh sh*t, speaking of that... I totally forgot to vote on it!! I just put my ballot in the mail today, too. I told myself I would decide on that later and completely forgot. Oh well, I was having trouble deciding anyway. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 01, 2008, 07:51:15 PM
The second wave of the UW poll is out.  It has only 387 respondents so it sucks, but a much better poll for the GOP.

Obama 51% (-4)
McCain 39% (+5)

Gregoire 50% (-1)
Rossi 48% (+3)

I-985:
Yes 40% (-5)
No 55% (+12)

I-1000:
Yes 53% (-3)
No 48% (+5)

I-1029:
Yes 60% (-5)
No 26% (+6)

Proposition 1 (which must have a hilariously insane MoE):

Yes 41% (-9)
No 49% (+6)

My guess is that combining the two polls gets you one, mediocre one of 987 RV's:

Obama 53%
McCain 36%
Other 5%

Gregoire 51%
Rossi 46%

I-985:
Yes 43%
No 48%

I-1000:
Yes 55%
No 40%

I-1029:
Yes 63%
No 22%

Prop. 1 (still ridiculous MoE):

Yes 46%
No 45%

Btw, GOP is closing the balloting gap here, unlike Oregon.  My bet is now that we'll be closer Presidentially then.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: HardRCafé on November 01, 2008, 10:42:48 PM
Btw, GOP is closing the balloting gap here, unlike Oregon.  My bet is now that we'll be closer Presidentially then.

Huzzah!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 03, 2008, 09:24:19 PM
FYI - Due to the Pierce County RCV experimentation, the results will look like this for Gubernatorial results

8:30 PM PST - Absentee votes that have been received though the evening of 11/3 (about 55% of the total vote)

3:00 AM PST - Poll votes

6:00 AM PST and every three hours after that - More absentee and poll votes


And then the RCV algorithm will be released at 11:30 PM, for anyone interested in seeing how that goes


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 03, 2008, 10:24:33 PM
New SUSA:

Obama 56% (nc)
McCain 40% (+1)
Early: Obama +19

Gregoire 52% (+2)
Rossi 46% (-2)
Early: Gregoire +8

McKenna 59% (+2)
Ladenburg 36% (nc)
Early: McKenna +23

Dorn 45% (+2)
Bergeson 37% (-1)
Early: Dorn +7

Sutherland 48% (+2)
Goldmark 42% (-1)
Early: Sutherland +5

I-985 (Congestion)
No 45% (+3)
Yes 33% (+4)
Early: No +13

I-1000 (Death with Dignity)
Yes 55% (+1)
No 40% (+3)
Early: Yes +19

AG was really the race that didn't happen this year.  Wish they polled State Treasurer instead.

Nice how 15% of those who have already voted are undecided on I-985.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 03, 2008, 11:11:48 PM
Ladenburg's kind of a douchebag, so whatever. We'll have to deal with McKenna in 2012 though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Daniel Z on November 03, 2008, 11:49:36 PM
Ladenburg's kind of a douchebag, so whatever. We'll have to deal with McKenna in 2012 though.
Thats the main reason I voted for Ladenburg.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 05, 2008, 01:44:53 AM
Looks like Gregoire wins.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on November 05, 2008, 02:48:18 AM
I'm glad this is more conclusive. Rossi was right with Gregoire for a while, which made me worried the "GOP" gambit was paying off.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 05, 2008, 03:11:11 AM

   And I am SO HAPPY.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 05, 2008, 05:02:46 AM
Gregoire is currently at 53.5%. I highly doubt Dino Rossi will be able to overcome this even if late voters break heavily in his favor (which I doubt will happen).

For State Treasurer, McIntire is at 52.2%. I think it's safe to say McIntire wins.

Goldmark has 50.4% for Commissioner of Public Lands right now. This could definitely change still, and might even be likely at this point.

Darcy Burner also has 50.4% in the 8th District with a vote margin of less than 1,000. Personally I think late ballots will break heavily for Reichert and let him win, but I hope I'm wrong.

Proposition 1 (Mass transit) looks like it will pass. All of the initiatives have voted as expected.

King County has been extremely Democratic so far. Obama is currently at 74% and Gregoire at 69%. I'm not sure what happened here. I'm also surprised with Obama over 60% in Snohomish and at 58% in Pierce. One thing's for certain--John McCain was utterly decimated in suburban Seattle.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 05, 2008, 05:32:35 AM
Burner's lead is down to 60 votes. I'm about 97% certain Reichert will win.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Daniel Z on November 05, 2008, 06:33:35 AM
Good night so far.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 05, 2008, 02:25:04 PM
Terribly disappointing. I had very, very high hopes for Dino. Oh well. I hope he stays involved.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 05, 2008, 03:39:43 PM
Note that later ballots are more likely to be GOP, if history follows.  Either way, Democrats had a pretty amazing year all-around, and in Snohomish County especially.  The biggest swing was not in Okanogan County, surprisingly.  It was Lewis County.  Who would have expected?

President
Obama murdered in the Seattle suburbs.  Other than some mixed results among really low-scale voters in Eastern Washington, this was just a blowout.

()

Governor
Well, I was right that Gregoire would do pretty badly among low-scale union workers.  On the other hand, she out-performed every other single group.  She may end up beating Kerry.  Who would have guessed?

()

Lt. Governor
Were people seriously worried about this race?  The only demographic where McCraw is going to under-perform is among regular Stranger readers.  So, maybe Cap Hill.  Maybe.  In all seriousness, he did under-perform his margin a bit in King County, and I think a few voters went McCraw on social issues.  Otherwise, murder.

()

Secretary of State
Reed underperformed in the Portland media market, as he's inclined to do.  But more than anything, he under-performed a little everywhere.  Certainly no 2-to-1.

()

State Treasurer
This is a pretty unexceptional map.  Just two basic notes.  McIntire was very close in a lot of bigger counties (Clallam, Skagit, Spokane).  Also, Martin definitely won a lot of those governmental types who let Reed win Thurston 2-to-1, but not nearly enough.  Democrats are likely to retain.

()

Attorney General
Could someone please, please explain to me how Jason Osgood out-performed John Ladenburg?  Please.

()

Superintendent of Public Instruction
This is a pretty damn boring map.  The primary made it look like we might see some geographical distinctions.  They're still around a bit -- Dorn did well around Wenatchee and the Tri-Cities -- but things regressed to the mean.  The most extreme result was 57.8% for Dorn in Benton.  It'll take until precinct results before I know if there's any real pattern here.

()

Insurance Commissioner
Boring and predictable map, but Okanogan being red here says a lot about demographic changes in that county.

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 05, 2008, 04:40:46 PM
Yeah, second-wave absentees are much more Republican, it seems.  Spokane County just fell from Obama +3 to barely Obama +0.  It will likely flip to McCain.

On the other hand, King County is still underrepresented in returns.  It's 29% of the state's population and about 44% of remaining ballots.

Edit: Although Pierce County is not at all reporting remaining ballots.  Still, I doubt the Democrats are going to expand their margins much.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 05, 2008, 05:51:09 PM
Late ballot effect looks pretty big.  Wahkiakum swung something like 2.5-3%, and there are still military ballots out.  Obama will probably finish up 14% or 15%, is my guess.  Gregoire will tighten a few points.  That includes the high pending rate in King County.

The Presidential race in Okanogan County, write-ins only:

Ron Paul - 32 (not inc. "John Paul")
Hillary Clinton - 19
Bill Cosby - 2
Bob Barr (idiot) - 1
Jesus Christ ("because no one above is worthy") - 1
Mitt Romney - 1

The best part: 7 of Clinton's 19 write-in votes were misspelled.

In the congressional race, Ralph Nader (2) leads, tailed by Joe the Plumber (1).

Someone wrote in "Elvis" for every office on the ballot other than President.  And in the Attorney General race, someone actually wrote in "Undecided."  A Mr. Dick Wanker put up a strong showing in the 7th District, with three votes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 06, 2008, 01:13:24 AM
OK, so the going rate seems to be that, in the later absentees, Obama loses about 4.5% and McCain gains the same.

Under this paradigm, I set all projected county turnouts to 2004 level * 10%.  A few counties may break this, but it should be about the going rate.

Extrapolated, assuming I did my math correctly, I can now extrapolate the following results.  In order for this race to tighten, you'd need either a comparatively low King County turnout or exponentially better GOP results in later balloting.  In order to make this a 15% win for Obama, McCain would have to swing late ballots like 15% or the aforementioned low Democratic turnout vs. 2004.

President
Obama 2,518,385 (57.97%)
McCain 1,755,114 (40.40%)
Other 70,688 (1.63%)

Margin: Obama +17.57%

I didn't check, but I assume Gregoire is seeing about the same loss.  As such, I can project the following mathematical results

Governor
Gregoire 2,273,159 (53.53%)
Rossi 1,973,025 (46.47%)

Margin: Gregoire +7.06%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 06, 2008, 01:40:30 AM
What about the Lands Commissioner race?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 06, 2008, 01:46:39 AM
State Treasurer
McIntire 2,024,645 (51.38%)
Martin 1,915,540 (48.62%)

Margin: McIntire +2.76%

Commissioner of Public Lands
Goldmark 1,994,180 (50.63%)
Sutherland 1,944,850 (49.37%)

Margin: Goldmark +1.26%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 06, 2008, 01:57:09 AM
:D

Can you do that with Burner/Reichert or is it too complex to break it up?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 06, 2008, 02:03:54 AM
:D

Can you do that with Burner/Reichert or is it too complex to break it up?

Well, Reichert leads and my methodology assumes that later ballots are going to be more Republican than current ballots...

But King County's dump today was actually slightly more Democratic, and then another more Republican one, I think.  That also happened in San Juan -- the dump today was 73% Obama when the original was 71% Obama.  I think Reichert briefly gained a bigger lead and then it shrunk?

In any case, my model says:

Burner 232,571 (46.51%)
Reichert 267,494 (53.49%)

But I'm way uncomfortable with using it this for this.  Either way, I do think Reichert will win.  King County's WA-8 portion is barely under-represented vs. Pierce County's (about 49% in vs. about 48%).  Late ballots being more Democratic seems a lot less likely than them being more Republican, even if they're barely more Republican.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 06, 2008, 02:11:15 AM
That's not what I want to hear Alcon >:(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 06, 2008, 02:35:07 AM
Want some consolation?

King County just dumped about 75,000 new ballots.  The breakdown was essentially identical to the pre-existing Democratic margins, over 70% Obama.

Which oddly made my model's margin tighten, which doesn't make sense, since he beat expectations.  wtf?  arghh.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 06, 2008, 02:37:39 AM
Yea, I just noticed that. I'm unclear on whether these are poll or absentee votes at this point though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 06, 2008, 02:40:55 AM
Off topic, do you guys think the Lands Commissioner or the 8th Congressional District is the more important race?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 06, 2008, 03:04:03 AM
I would rather have Burner win if I could only have one of the two. It doesn't look like she will, though. :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 06, 2008, 11:22:28 AM
Commissioner of Public Lands
Goldmark 1,893,427 (50.21%)
Sutherland 1,877,463 (49.79%)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 06, 2008, 12:13:55 PM
I don't like this model.  It's exponentializing more than I expected.  I'm going to create a new model tonight, which extrapolates uniformly based on new ballot returns.  This will bias toward the Democrats if late absentees are even more Republican than second-wave absentees, as I expect they will be.  But as it stands, my model is too biased toward the GOP.  I expect that the truth will be about 2/3 of the way between the current model and the new one.

I'll figure this out!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 06, 2008, 04:06:03 PM
OK, so here are the new models.  I also fixed a stupid Excel error that was causing it to inflate turnout drastically.

Model A (dumb projection) assumes that all future ballots will be cast in exact proportion to their current ratio.  This measure does not take into account the late ballot effect at all, and thus it has a Democratic bias.

Model A (Obama +19.79%)
Obama 1,857,676 (59.07%)
McCain 1,235,248 (39.28%)
Other 52,068 (1.66%)

Model B (old model) assumes that all future ballots will be about 4.5% more Republican and 4.5% less Democratic than current ballots.  This should be the most Republican-friendly model, and should become moreso as time goes on.

Model B (Obama +16.33%)
Obama 1,803,305 (57.33%)
McCain 1,289,619 (41.01%)
Other 52,068 (1.66%)

Model C (new model) takes the earliest number I have for each county, and then subtracts it from the current totals.  It takes this new number, which is the break-down for second-wave ballots, and extrapolates based on it.  I think this is the most neutral, but two things tell me it may have a slight Dem bias.  First, early King County second-wave ballots look more like first-wave ballots to me, but I can't tell.  Secondly, my suspicion is that last-wave ballots are even more Republican because they're more likely to be military.  On the other hand, if there is no new ballot information, Model C defaults to Model B's Republican-leaning methodology.  So, Model C's slight Democratic lean is probably neutralized at the moment.

Model C (Obama +17.76%)
Obama 1,825,548 (58.05%)
McCain 1,266,946 (40.28%)
Other 52,498 (1.67%)

My current margin projection would be about Obama +16.5-18.0%.  Unless of course my modeling has a fatal flaw, which is always possible.  We shall see.

Gov, Lands Comish, and Trez coming up.  I don't have older counts for these races, so we'll have to wait for new data to come in for Model C to work.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 06, 2008, 04:27:10 PM
President
Model A (Obama +19.79%)
Obama 1,857,676 (59.07%)
McCain 1,235,248 (39.28%)

Model B (Obama +16.33%)
Obama 1,803,305 (57.33%)
McCain 1,289,619 (41.01%)

Model C (Obama +17.76%)
Obama 1,825,548 (58.05%)
McCain 1,266,946 (40.28%)

Likely range: Obama +16.5-18.5

Governor
Model A (Gregoire +9.82%)
Gregoire 1,726,993 (54.91%)
Rossi 1,417,999 (45.09%)

Model B (Gregoire +6.32%)
Gregoire 1,671,834 (53.16%)
Rossi 1,473,158 (46.84%)

Model C
Insufficient data

Likely range: Gregoire +6.5-8.5

State Treasurer
Model A (McIntire +5.75%)
McIntire 1,662,859 (52.87%)
Martin 1,482,134 (47.13%)

Model B (McIntire +1.88%)
McIntire 1,602,096 (50.94%)
Martin 1,542,896 (49.06%)

Model C
Insufficient data

Likely range: McIntire +2.0-4.0

Commissioner of Public Lands
Model A (Goldmark +3.77%)
Goldmark 1,631,765 (51.88%)
Sutherland 1,513,228 (48.12%)

Model B (Sutherland +0.06%)
Goldmark 1,571,510 (49.97%)
Sutherland 1,573,483 (50.03%)

Model C
Insufficient data

Likely range: Goldmark +0.0-2.0


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 06, 2008, 05:56:52 PM
Unless King County stops delivering dumps that are more Dem-favorable than their initial results, which it just did for the third time in a row, Sutherland is toast.

Martin is now probably dead in the water either way.

Burner may hold on yet (she tied the latest batch), but it's unlikely.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 06, 2008, 06:48:39 PM
Yea, Goldmark is now above 51%. What a wonderful treat! :D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 06, 2008, 06:52:47 PM
I also have a feeling that the Pierce County results are going to be more Democratic than the last few batches. Not as Democratic as the initial batch though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 06, 2008, 07:08:00 PM
I also have a feeling that the Pierce County results are going to be more Democratic than the last few batches. Not as Democratic as the initial batch though.

I have a feeling you may be right.

Every single second-wave release so far today (Adams, Grant, King, Skagit, Whatcom, and Whitman, Yakima) has been better for Obama, and even moreso the down-ticket Democrats, than the initial results.  No idea why.  McCain may even fall under 40%, at this rate (maybe.)

But, seriously, if these sorts of numbers hold up in the Puget Sound, the Washington GOP is officially no longer a viable political party.  Gregoire is now projecting as beating Kerry's margin by nearly half a point.  That has to sting for the GOP.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 06, 2008, 07:57:05 PM
The AP just called the race for Goldmark! :D

And Bergeson has conceded :-\


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 06, 2008, 11:47:01 PM
(Blog copy)

Model A: "Dumb" model (no late ballot effect)
Model B: Old model (Republican adjustment method)
Model C: New model (New ballot extrapolation method)

Other than prez, Model C still could use some more information, but it's solid enough.  It's the best one.

President
Model A: Obama +19.14 -0.65
Model B: Obama +16.37 +0.04
Model C: Obama +17.83 +0.07

Governor
Model A: Gregoire +9.07 -0.75
Model B: Gregoire +6.31 -0.01
Model C: Gregoire +7.67

State Treasurer
Model A: McIntire +4.66 -1.09
Model B: McIntire +1.96 +0.08
Model C: McIntire +2.65

Commissioner of Public Lands
Model A: Goldmark +2.90 -0.86
Model B: Goldmark +0.22 +0.28
Model C: Goldmark +1.40

U.S. Congress - Dist. 8 (still not comfortable)
Model A: Reichert +1.48
Model B: Reichert +8.73 (lol, what can you do?)
Model C: Pending

All in all, we’re probably look at about Obama +17.5,  Gregoire +7.5, McIntire +2.5 and Goldmark +1.5.  I think, in pretty much every case, a slightly closer race (due to late absentees) is more likely than bigger Democratic margins.  I can’t promise anything, though.

Reichert looks pretty solid in WA-8 at first, but I want to give Model C a go when Pierce and King release new information tomorrow.  Why?  Because the late ballot effect seems much less pronounced here (especially King), and accordingly Reichert +8.7 is utterly ridiculous.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 07, 2008, 12:32:24 AM
The release from Pierce County today still had a chunk of poll votes (I had thought they were done with those). Here on out will be absentee though, so now we'll be able to see if the Republican-gain-in-late-absentees trend continues.

Pierce also only counted something along the line of 27,000 ballots today. And there's still at least 150,000 left.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 07, 2008, 01:14:50 AM
Not sure what way the poll votes are going to cut, though.

In the February primary, 59% of absentee voters voted Democratic compared to only 45% of poll voters.

In the August primary, Gregoire got 48% of absentee voters and 45% of poll voters.

Of course, dramatically different turnout situation...in a General, poll voters are probably more Democratic, you think?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 07, 2008, 01:17:19 AM
Poll voters have always been more Republican for as long as I can recall... were they in the 2004 general?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 07, 2008, 01:29:42 AM
Poll voters have always been more Republican for as long as I can recall... were they in the 2004 general?

I don't have the 2004 data file anymore, which sucks, because it cost $20.  I'll have to trust you on them being more GOP.  It sounds plausible.

If they're still more Republican, and that last batch was absentees+them, very good news for Democrats in Pierce County races.

Would also help explain why Marilyn Rasmussen is down.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on November 07, 2008, 01:50:21 AM
Pierce county is taking forever. I hope Burner pulls it off. We will just have to sit and wait.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 07, 2008, 09:51:07 AM
Reichert now leads in King. I think she's done for.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 07, 2008, 10:53:07 AM
Yeah, the latest King County batch was def. on the Republican side.  McCain actually got 31.2% of it (!!!!!!!!111~~).  Unless King goes back to more more-Democratic-than-before batches (wonder what that was) Burner is done for.  Although she probably is either way.

The CPL call was a mite premature, imho.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 07, 2008, 06:47:18 PM
Burner's margin continues to deteriorate. Oh well, wonder who we'll get to run next time...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 07, 2008, 10:34:38 PM
Burner = doomed

Model A: Reichert +3.1
Model B: Reichert +9.2
Model C: Reichert +5.3

Probably won't even be especially close.  Rodney Tom?  Can't believe the WA Dems nominated her again.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 07, 2008, 11:07:44 PM
Early results show that McCain did not break 33% in the 48th (http://apps.leg.wa.gov/DistrictFinder/results.aspx?District=48).  Words fail.

That's an 18-point swing from 2004 in a suburban district.  Tentatively, the 5th (http://apps.leg.wa.gov/documents/common/maps/05dist.gif) swung 15 points; the 45th (http://apps.leg.wa.gov/documents/common/maps/45dist.gif) swung 16.

This is an area where Bush generally declined between '00 and '04, and that trended Democratic during the 1990s.  This is also a very polarized area.  That's just all-around pretty incredible.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 08, 2008, 01:14:53 AM
Bunney has narrowed the margin significantly. Crap.

And local crazy Dale Washam is somehow now poised to win the Assesor-Treasurer race. WTF?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 08, 2008, 01:35:58 AM
Walsham is a local crazy who's been running for office for years. Never won anything (Thank God for it).

It's easy to see why he's winning based on the Voters' Pamphlet statements though - he effectively promises to cut or halt increases in property taxes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 08, 2008, 02:18:51 AM
Haha, 41% McCain in the 5th district! Owned. I hope my precinct hits 70%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 08, 2008, 03:45:59 AM
Newest King County bump was good for Burner.  Not good enough.  We've had five Kingco waves, and all of the remaining ballots would have to be 40% better for Burner than the best of those.  Reichert wins.

Can't believe the AP called CPL way before this race, but whatever


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 08, 2008, 08:44:41 AM
Burner has conceded, apparently. Maybe she should try the state legislature next time.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 08, 2008, 12:02:35 PM
Early PierceCo numbers (this will become more GOP).  Includes only Pierce County portions (which is like 20 votes in Pacific), does not include consolidations.  Kerry in parentheses.

Municipality
Auburn: 55-44 Obama (49-51)
Bonney Lake: 51-48 Obama (46-52)
Buckley: 48-48 Obama (46-53)
Carbonado: 61-36 McCain (34-63)
DuPont: 50-49 Obama (41-57)
Eatonville: 49-49 McCain (43-56)
Edgewood: 51-47 Obama (47-51)
Fife: 61-37 Obama (57-42)
Fircrest: 61-38 Obama (54-45)
Gig Harbor: 53-46 Obama (46-53)
Lakewood: 56-42 Obama (51-48)
Milton: 55-44 Obama (51-48)
Orting: 50-48 Obama (45-53)
Pacific: 52-48 Obama (37-63)
Puyallup: 54-44 Obama (48-51)
Roy: 57-39 McCain (38-62)
Ruston: 66-32 Obama (63-33)
South Prairie: 52-48 McCain (46-51)
Steilacoom: 52-46 Obama (49-49)
Sumner: 55-43 Obama (52-47)
Tacoma: 68-30 Obama (62-37)
University Place: 59-40 Obama (52-47)
Wilkeson: 49-48 Obama (52-46)

LD
2nd: 50-48 McCain (42-56)
25th: 53-45 Obama (47-52)
26th: 52-47 Obama (46-53)
27th: 69-30 Obama (63-36)
28th: 56-42 Obama (50-49)
29th: 64-34 Obama (59-40)
31st: 51-47 Obama (46-53)

Predictably, McCain just lost it in the middle-class suburbs here too.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 08, 2008, 12:31:55 PM
Huh:

Fort Lewis Army Base (28-465 & 28-469)
Barack Obama 525 (50.68%)
John McCain 497 (47.97%)
Bob Barr 5 (0.48%)
Chuck Baldwin 4 (0.39%)
Ralph Nader 2 (0.19%)
Gloria La Riva 2 (0.19%)
James Harris 1 (0.10%)

???


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 08, 2008, 01:12:03 PM
What about the McChord precinct?

And can you do that for Gregoire/Rossi?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 08, 2008, 06:16:45 PM
Huh:

Fort Lewis Army Base (28-465 & 28-469)
Barack Obama 525 (50.68%)
John McCain 497 (47.97%)
Bob Barr 5 (0.48%)
Chuck Baldwin 4 (0.39%)
Ralph Nader 2 (0.19%)
Gloria La Riva 2 (0.19%)
James Harris 1 (0.10%)

???

Are those the voters for the entire base? I feel like there should be alot more...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 08, 2008, 11:08:28 PM
What about the McChord precinct?

And can you do that for Gregoire/Rossi?

Sure, I'll be happy to when I get home.

McChord was like 61% McCain, and I'm pretty sure Bush broke 70% in a walk.  I'll check.

Are those the voters for the entire base? I feel like there should be alot more...

Transitory population.  Many vote at home, many don't vote.  Besides, we're only half counted or so.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 08, 2008, 11:13:28 PM
I'm doing County Executive stuff that only Alcon and I will care about, but hopefully I'll have that done tonight or early tomorrow morning.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 09, 2008, 12:31:34 AM
Pierce County ballot release tonight was really Republican, like Obama +5 at best, bringing the second wave ballots down to about Obama +8.  If that pattern continues, the county is going to tighten to single digits.

King County dump was slightly better for the GOP, but probably not enough to bring Obama under 70%.  Sutherland is looking a little closer to being hosed, principally because of this.

Meeker, to answer your question: McChord (28-467) is 62-38 McCain now, and was 72-27 Bush in 2004.  In 2004, Fort Lewis (now 51-48 Obama) was 59-40 Bush.  Smaller swing than I remembered, but still pretty big.

Governor
Auburn: 51-49 Rossi
Bonney Lake: 56-44 Rossi
Buckley: 52-48 Rossi
Carbonado: 66-34 Rossi
DuPont: 54-46 Rossi
Eatonville: 55-45 Rossi
Edgewood: 52-48 Rossi
Fife: 55-45 Gregoire
Fircrest: 58-42 Gregoire
Gig Harbor: 52-48 Rossi
Lakewood: 54-46 Gregoire
Milton: 51-49 Gregoire
Orting: 54-46 Rossi
Pacific: 57-43 Rossi
Puyallup: 51-49 Gregoire
Roy: 61-39 Rossi
Ruston: 60-40 Gregoire
South Prairie: 53-47 Gregoire
Steilacoom: 50-50 Gregoire
Sumner: 51-49 Gregoire
Tacoma: 64-36 Gregoire
University Place: 56-44 Gregoire
Wilkeson: 50-50 Rossi

LDs
2nd: 57-43 Rossi
25th: 51-49 Rossi
26th: 53-47 Rossi
27th: 65-35 Gregoire
28th: 54-46 Gregoire
29th: 62-38 Gregoire
31st: 54-46 Rossi


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 09, 2008, 12:41:29 AM
The Seattle Times has officially declared Reichert the winner. They don't mention that they're the reason he won, though. :P

Oh well, the Times also took down Doug Sutherland, so at least it's somewhat even. ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 09, 2008, 01:02:24 AM
Preliminary (although not really that far from done) Snoho results:

Arlington: 54-45 Obama (45-53)
Bothell: 62-37 Obama (55-44)
Brier: 64-35 Obama (57-42)
Darrington: 53-45 Obama (45-53)
Edmonds: 66-33 Obama (60-39)
Everett: 64-34 Obama (58-41)
Gold Bar: 53-44 Obama (49-49)
Granite Falls: 56-41 Obama (51-46)
Index: 83-18 Obama (76-23)
Lake Stevens: 57-42 Obama (49-50)
Lynnwood: 66-32 Obama (61-38)
Marysville: 55-43 Obama (48-51)
Mill Creek: 57-42 Obama (48-51)
Monroe: 55-43 Obama (46-52)
Mountlake Terrace: 70-28 Obama (64-35)
Mukilteo: 63-36 Obama (54-45)
Snohomish: 59-39 Obama (52-46)
Stanwood: 49-49 McCain (45-54)
Sultan: 52-46 Obama (44-54)
Woodway: 52-48 Obama (45-54)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 10, 2008, 11:43:16 PM
I think there's a chance that Seattle beat San Francisco.  A good chance, in fact.

Congressional district 7 returns:

Obama 120,114 (84.60%)
McCain 20,131 (14.18%)
Other 1,734 (1.22%)

Margin: Obama +70.4%

Now, at the time, Obama's margin was 44.3%.  It's likely to decline to about 42.0% if Obama holds up well in late-late KingCo returns.  I'll assume a decline of 2.3% or so.

Now, in 2004, WA-7 was Kerry +60.1.  Meanwhile, Seattle was Kerry +62.6.

That puts Seattle at about Obama +70.6%.  San Francisco, returns show, is currently Obama +70.2%.  Plenty of things could notch Seattle down a bit, but these early returns indicate Seattle is favored.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on November 11, 2008, 01:23:19 AM
How did WA-3 vote? (Or the district that has Olympia+Vancouver+Lewis Co., I believe)

Seattle loves Obama, no surprise... did any precincts vote for McCain?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 11, 2008, 01:34:54 AM
How did WA-3 vote? (Or the district that has Olympia+Vancouver+Lewis Co., I believe)

Yeah, it is, although parts of the Olympia metroplex are in WA-9.

In either case, results aren't totally finalized, and I have no break-down for Skamania County (the Underwood area is in WA-4), but my results currently have Obama defeating McCain about 54% to 44%.

Seattle loves Obama, no surprise... did any precincts vote for McCain?

Unfortunately, it will be December until King County precinct results are out.  Obama's trouble spots are precincts 1992 (Broadmoor Country Club) and 1818 (Madison Park retirement condos).  Broadmoor went from 2-to-1 Bush in 2000 to about 57% Bush in 2004, and was a virtual tie in the primary.  But there is a rock-solid GOP base here, and McCain is a good candidate for the country club set.  So is Obama.  On the other hand, Obama risks losing some Clintonites in 1818, and there's hardcore GOP bedrock there.  There's also a Windermere waterfront precinct McGavick flipped that will likely go Obama, but other than that, it's slim pickings for the GOP.

Obama stands a chance at winning both, but I'm not sure it's likely.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 12, 2008, 01:18:07 AM
Preliminary Snohomish map

I say preliminary for two important reasons:

1. My shapefile is from 2007; some precincts have been created/destroyed

2. These results are from Friday, and Obama has lost a few points (and inevitably a few precincts) -- but overall it's pretty accurate.  Obama's margin will probably decline +2.0%-2.5% from this map, but that's not going to change it drastically.

Grey indicates no votes cast, or too few votes to protect voter privacy.

() (http://img391.imageshack.us/img391/4451/snohomishws8.png)

For those less familiar with the area:

Labeled version of above (http://img366.imageshack.us/img366/1582/snohomishlabeledeh7.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 12, 2008, 01:33:21 AM
Which precincts are within the Tulalip Reservation?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 12, 2008, 01:55:55 AM
Which precincts are within the Tulalip Reservation?

Tulalip 1-4, Tulalip 5 (minus some industrial land), Shelton (minus one arbitrary block), Millard, Boeing, Coho, Tyee, Priest Point

See how you can draw a clean line at the top of the 38th LD, and then another along I-5?  Excluding the aforementioned area, that's all rez land.  There are tons of non-whites all over.  The Tulalip CDP is actually approaching 3/4 white, and it doesn't even include the even-whiter land in the non-"Tulalip" precincts.  The rest is a lot of downscale whites and terrible McMansions avoiding county land restrictions.  It's pretty awful.

The "Tulalip" precincts (especially the waterfront ones, 1 & 2) have a ton of affluent waterfront whites.  Tulalip 2 & Priest Point are a mix of poor Indians and rich whites (although the latter is heavily white), Tulalip 3-5 and the rest are a mix of Indians and the aforementioned awful areas.  I'm pretty sure all are at least 65% white, although Tulalip 2 may be a bit more diverse.

That area is not as ridiculously un-Indian as the Port Madison Reservation in Kitsap County (Suquamish is like 12% Indian at most), but it's up there.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 12, 2008, 02:03:39 AM
God, I can't believe I stayed up this late.

Spokane County, which is like 95% counted:

() (http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/38/spokanesv2.png)

Labeled version (http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/636/spokanelabeledry8.png), for those having trouble finding Spokane or something.

John Kerry's losing Cheney truly was a remarkable achievement.

Anyway, remind me to do Gov when Spokane is finished and also an Obama v. Gregoire map.  There's some weirdness there.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 12, 2008, 06:04:45 PM
New shading for Snohomish:

() (http://img260.imageshack.us/img260/3620/snohomishar6.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 12, 2008, 11:21:58 PM
God, I can't believe I stayed up this late.

Spokane County, which is like 95% counted:

() (http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/38/spokanesv2.png)

Labeled version (http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/636/spokanelabeledry8.png), for those having trouble finding Spokane or something.

John Kerry's losing Cheney truly was a remarkable achievement.

Anyway, remind me to do Gov when Spokane is finished and also an Obama v. Gregoire map.  There's some weirdness there.

Cool, I can tell which precinct is Gonzaga. (Hint it is one of the Obama > 70% precincts)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Bacon King on November 14, 2008, 02:40:29 AM
Loving the maps, Alcon. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 14, 2008, 04:22:02 PM
New Snoho in red (old on left, 2004 in parentheses):

Arlington: 54-45 Obama (45-53) 52-46 Obama
Bothell: 62-37 Obama (55-44) 60-38 Obama
Brier: 64-35 Obama (57-42) 63-36 Obama
Darrington: 53-45 Obama (45-53) 53-44 Obama
Edmonds: 66-33 Obama (60-39) 65-34 Obama
Everett: 64-34 Obama (58-41) 63-35 Obama
Gold Bar: 53-44 Obama (49-49) 52-45 Obama
Granite Falls: 56-41 Obama (51-46) 56-41 Obama
Index: 83-18 Obama (76-23) 78-21 Obama
Lake Stevens: 57-42 Obama (49-50) 56-42 Obama
Lynnwood: 66-32 Obama (61-38) 65-33 Obama
Marysville: 55-43 Obama (48-51) 54-44 Obama
Mill Creek: 57-42 Obama (48-51) 57-42 Obama
Monroe: 55-43 Obama (46-52) 52-46 Obama
Mountlake Terrace: 70-28 Obama (64-35) 69-29 Obama
Mukilteo: 63-36 Obama (54-45) 62-37 Obama
Snohomish: 59-39 Obama (52-46) 58-40 Obama
Stanwood: 49-49 McCain (45-54) 50-49 McCain
Sultan: 52-46 Obama (44-54) 50-48 Obama
Woodway: 52-48 Obama (45-54) 53-47 Obama

I'll make a map when they're totally done (10,000 more ballots to go)

Governor for the same:

Arlington: 53-47 Rossi
Bothell: 53-47 Gregoire
Brier: 56-44 Gregoire
Darrington: 53-47 Rossi
Edmonds: 60-40 Gregoire
Everett: 58-42 Gregoire
Gold Bar: 51-49 Gregoire
Granite Falls: Tie
Index: 73-27 Gregoire
Lake Stevens: 51-49 Rossi
Lynnwood: 60-40 Gregoire
Marysville: 51-49 Rossi
Mill Creek: 51-49 Rossi
Monroe: 54-46 Rossi
Mountlake Terrace: 63-37 Gregoire
Mukilteo: 54-46 Gregoire
Snohomish: 52-48 Gregoire
Stanwood: 54-46 Rossi
Sultan: 53-47 Rossi
Woodway: 55-45 Rossi


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 14, 2008, 06:25:48 PM
What makes Index so Democratic?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 14, 2008, 07:57:40 PM

Index is a resort town, but a weird one.  It's tiny, so there's not any service industry (one Korean market).  Basically it's a few hundred semi-hippies who just decided to live in nature, or something.  Either way, the presidential results deceptively under-rate its liberalness.  Back in the 90s, Index easily passed the gay discrimination initiative that failed miserably with over 60% (Seattle barely passed it), and also voted to decriminalize Schedule I narcotics, which even failed in Seattle.

It's also maybe one of the prettiest places in the state.

Down Highway 2 back into King County, there's a twinned town called Skykomish that votes similarly, although less Democratic.  It's totally different, though; it's a socially conservative old rail town.  It's also pretty unpleasant (in part because it's all torn up right now, but still, kind of a depressing place.)

Skykomish may be almost as Democratic, but its politics are way different:  It failed the King County Charter Amendment against gay discrimination that broke 70% countywide this year.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 14, 2008, 08:24:58 PM
Thurston County has been slowly drifting up toward 60%, and now stands at 59.996% Obama with about 7,000 ballots to go.  Counter to what I'd have thought, these super late ballots appear to be some of the most Democratic so far statewide.  I guess the expatriots are outvoting the military people.  (These are all international mail except for slow-counters like Pierce, right?  Why else would it take over a week for mail to arrive?)

Klickitat County reports that it's out of ballots, and Obama's lead has now gradually ticked up to an all-time high of 20 votes.  He probably has that.  Wahkiakum is the last question mark, my guess is still a flip to McCain.  It hasn't reported since counting every ballot the night of.  Obama led then, 1,112 to 1,100.

Edit: I don't get it.  I'd think at least some of these would be military ballots, yet today's Pierce County load was over 60% Obama.  ???


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 14, 2008, 11:29:04 PM
King and Pierce haven't actually received any ballots in several days. The ballots remaining are either provisional ballots or ballots that have been filled out incorrectly - ballots which, as we're learning in Minnesota, lean heavily Democratic.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 14, 2008, 11:33:54 PM
Ahh, ok.  That explains why "Other" is getting like 6% daily.  I gather provisional/question voters tend to be Democrats and/or total idiots

Are all 36,000 of King and 17,500 of Pierce provisionals/screw-ups?  That seems pretty high.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 14, 2008, 11:37:10 PM
Ahh, ok.  That explains why "Other" is getting like 6% daily.

Are all 36,000 of King and 17,500 of Pierce provisionals/screw-ups?  That seems pretty high.

I know in Pierce they are (RCV + lots of new voters = Hell for the Auditors office). Not quite sure about King, but the new voter surge may have caused that many.

You'll also notice that the number of ballots being reported daily has drastically decreased (Pierce only reported something like 2500 today). The same thing is causing this - it's taking them a long time to fill out replacement ballots.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 14, 2008, 11:40:54 PM
Oh.  This all makes sense.  It would be nice to have a break-down of how many RCV ballots are remaining vs. normal ballots.

So, McCarthy probably won, then?  And the latest TNT article implied that Washram won today's run, I think, although it was unclear if they were just reporting that he has a plurality, or both.

I bet the can't-fill-out-a-ballot-correctly vote was pretty lucrative for Washram.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 14, 2008, 11:59:27 PM
I'm *pretty* sure McCarthy has won. Lonergan's second preferences are breaking for Bunney at a much higher rate than they used to be (which is causing it to tighten more than I expected), but I don't think it'll be enough.

Also, the remaining ballots will be more Democratic overall, meaning more combined votes for Goings and McCarthy. However, these ballots were cast by people who were clearly confused by the system or had never experienced voting before, so I suspect the drop-off in people filling out second preferences will go up. So while Goings and McCarthy combined will get more votes in this remaining batch, Bunney may get more votes out of it overall due to Goings voters not bothering or understanding how to indicate McCarthy was their second choice.

The Assesor-Treasurer's race is still a free-for-all. I have a difficult time seeing a situation whereby Shabro wins, but Washam, Gelman and Lee all have a good shot at it. There's no way we'll be able to tell until the very last ballots are counted though - fifty to a hundred votes could drastically change the outcome.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 18, 2008, 07:22:33 PM
When's the last time a Democrat won Okanogan County but not Pierce?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 18, 2008, 08:10:24 PM
When's the last time a Democrat won Okanogan County but not Pierce?

1964 Secretary of State, maybe the weirdest (https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=1964&fips=53&f=1&off=7&elect=0) modern result I've ever seen.

Before then, a smattering of offices in 1916 (Lt. Governor, Attorney General, State Auditor), and the 1912 Presidential.

I'm pretty impressed Goldmark won.  He lost in the primary (usually where being local matters more) and did pretty awful in other counties with big timber.  But Okanogan is trending hard, and I guess Goldmark has the name ID there.  Still a bit of a coup.

The Democrats are going to have to hit their ceiling eventually in Okanogan.  There's no way that they can maintain these big yearly trends.  There's only so many votes in the Mazama Valley...I think :P

Then again, I wouldn't have expected it to be the second-biggest trender this year after 2004's huge swing.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on November 19, 2008, 08:18:10 PM
When's the last time a Democrat won Okanogan County but not Pierce?

1964 Secretary of State, maybe the weirdest (https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=1964&fips=53&f=1&off=7&elect=0) modern result I've ever seen.

What was with that?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 19, 2008, 08:29:14 PM
When's the last time a Democrat won Okanogan County but not Pierce?

1964 Secretary of State, maybe the weirdest (https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=1964&fips=53&f=1&off=7&elect=0) modern result I've ever seen.

What was with that?

No idea


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 19, 2008, 10:01:26 PM
Last two days of Pierce County:

Obama 62%
McCain 36%

Gregoire 53%
Rossi 47%

McIntire 58%
Martin 42%

Goldmark 50%
Sutherland 50%

I was meaning to track County Exec too, but I forgot.  How's that changed?  Latest voters sure are weird downticket.  They seem to be voting like McIntire was the incumbent


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 20, 2008, 01:41:05 AM
Washington State GOP Confident Despite Loss

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2008368718_gop09m0.html (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2008368718_gop09m0.html)

After what happened in 2006 and 2008 in WA, it takes some level of delusion to feel good at this point.  Or maybe it is just a front.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 20, 2008, 02:12:20 AM
Washington State GOP Confident Despite Loss

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2008368718_gop09m0.html (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2008368718_gop09m0.html)

After what happened in 2006 and 2008 in WA, it takes some level of delusion to feel good at this point.  Or maybe it is just a front.



My thoughts: Ever since the 2006 election, I've basically figured that in the state legislature, the Democrats had probably hit their ceiling. The only place Republicans had to go was up---they lost almost every seat they could possibly lose. A few suburban districts here and there may continue trending Dem and elect a Democratic legislator when one of the Republican incumbents step down (5th LD, for example), but the Republicans will regain some of the lean R seats they've lost (an incumbent Democratic Representative in the 6th district (suburban Spokane) who was first elected in 2006 has already been defeated, for example).

I expect Reichert to be the last Republican Representative in the 8th district for a long time. I'm fairly certain the Democrats will be able to take him down once they get a decent candidate. Whether that will ever happen is uncertain, though once Reichert steps down the Democrats should definitely win it.

The GOP is in deep trouble in suburban Seattle. Let's look at the Southern United States---in the 80s and 90s, we saw a lot of Democratic politicans ditch the party and join the GOP. This is quite indicative of a long-term change in the way the area votes. In suburban Seattle we've seen people like Rodney Tom and Fred Jarrett jump ship. It's clear that suburban Seattle is going Democrat and it won't be going back any time soon. We saw this happen in many parts of Seattle like Fremont and Wallingford in the 70s. They used to be Republican and then took a sharp-turn for the left. This example is probably a bit radical, but I do honestly think we're seeing the political Seattleization of suburban Seattle (particular the Northside and Eastside). It's true that some areas, like suburban Pierce County, are becoming the new Republican suburban strongholds, but quite simply they don't even come close to countering the Metro-wide Dem-trend.

As for statewide officials, they'll sneak in some Republicans for sure. Maybe even a Governor. Alcon and I agreed a while ago that Rob McKenna was more likely than Rossi to be the next Republican Governor of Washington. I think McKenna has a very good chance of being Governor eventually and I don't think he has hid his intentions to seek the office. Rossi had one important thing McKenna doesn't, though. Looks. Let's face it, Rossi only did so well because he was a handsome young man up against an ugly old woman. McKenna is an ugly nerd with glasses. It's not something I base my vote on, but considering how shallow your average swing voter is, it's definitely something worth considering. Sonntag is the only Democrat I'd be confident with against McKenna. Though the other mentioned names (Inslee, for example) would also have a good chance (though it's a risk I'd rather not take). I doubt Reed is popular enough with Republicans to make it past the primary and we just saw Sutherland go down this month. Allan Martin was an extremely strong candidate for an open office and he lost (and McIntire did pretty well in some traditionally Democratic areas for such a close election, surprisingly).

The GOP has yet another problem---Washingtonians often get their conservativeness out of them via referendums and initiatives, thus eliminating some of the need to vote Republican. I believe Chris Vance has talked about this.

So, McKenna aside, there aren't any truly worrisome Republicans out there yet. I doubt McMorris Rodgers will be leaving the House, but perhaps I've been misled. The Democrats will probably control the state legislature for decades to come. The Puget Sound is turning into the Bay Area 2.0 and Washington doesn't have enough populous Republican areas like Orange County (and much of Southern California)* to counter it.


*yeah, they weren't so Republican this year, but you get my drift


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 20, 2008, 03:13:34 AM
I'm curious what you're referring to in regards to suburban Pierce County trending Republican. What specific areas?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 20, 2008, 03:35:44 AM
I'm curious what you're referring to in regards to suburban Pierce County trending Republican. What specific areas?

I didn't say they were trending Republican. Maybe a 60% Republican rural area turned into a 57% Republican suburban area. That may be a swing to the Democrats, but in terms of raw votes, it's an increase for the Republicans (and will increase the R % in Pierce). Pierce is less reliably Democrat than it has been in the past. The county isn't dominated by Tacoma like it used to be. Pierce would've been Democrat in a 50-50 election 40 years ago. Now it would be Republican in such a scenario. When you look at the major areas of the Metro, suburban Pierce is the most Republican. I was thinking of areas like Graham but I'm really not very familiar with specific places in suburban Pierce.

I'll let Alcon give a more detailed answer...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 20, 2008, 03:44:31 AM
Ah, I see what you're saying. I'm pretty sure I know which parts you're talking about, but Alcon would be able to be more detailed. Alcon, would you say it's sort of unincorporated hinterlands in the 1st and 3rd County Council Districts?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 20, 2008, 04:00:43 AM
Yep.  The 1st was counteracted this year because Obama was a good candidate for Lake Tapps and some of the boom areas around Bonney Lake.  I think 2000->2004 was telling.  The Dem margins are going to revert some, but they're never going to return in a few places.  And that's why Pierce County is trending blue (although it won't this year)

I don't really think any part of suburban Pierce is a Republican stronghold.  There are some areas around Lake Tapps where Bush certainly thwumped Kerry, but Obama way brought down those numbers.

The real new bedrock GOP area in Pierce County is around Graham and the southern part of Elk Plain.  There are a lot of down- to mid-scale voters here, as well as some newer upper-incomers escaping urban life.  I guess that area is part of the Seattle-Tacoma metro by virtue of being part of the Tacoma metro (barely).  But I think the idea of including that area in the "Seattle metro" is ridiculous.  It's wayyy not.

Anyway, even Obama was running against population growth in a few areas around Bonney Lake.  Just eyeballing, and without my 2000 results, Gore also did better than Obama in parts of Graham and southern Spanaway.  I think those are more long-term impacts.  It's a mix of growth and a loss of Democratic cultural appeal.

Basically, in any area where tax-resenting middle-class people (many of them fundies) are moving into downscale "redneck" areas = bad news for the Democrats.  That describes a lot of Pierce County.  Obama's strong showing in developments and wealthy enclaves (which tend to share districts with the aforementioned areas) temporary hid what's a longer trend.

Although I don't think we'll be seeing anything crazy sharp like 2000->2004.  I could go into more detail why, but instead I'll just give some geopolitical shout-outs: Puyallup/South Hill, Tacoma 'burbs (Southwest and Northeast), Gig Harbor Peninsula.  I think you see where I'm going with that.

Anyway, the Dem worry for a while was that those exurban growth trends would continue while the inner 'burbs and "old exurbs" like Gig Harbor wouldn't move.  I doubt the GOP will get a Perfect Storm like that.  On the other hand, without a real bad housing market, and with few traditional inner suburbs, I think the basic trend is GOP.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 20, 2008, 04:19:06 PM
()

Why did Gregoire do so badly in the south of the state [qm].


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 20, 2008, 04:30:35 PM
()

Why did Gregoire do so badly in the south of the state [qm].

She did fine in every county except Wahkiakum (the tiny one) and Cowlitz (the one to the right of Wahkiakum), actually.  And Pacific, the red one, to some degree.

She's on track to lose Clark by 2 (Kerry lost by over 5), Lewis by 29 (Kerry lost by 32), Skamania by <5 (Kerry lost by >6).  On the other hand, she's going to lose Cowlitz by 7 (Kerry +3), Wahkiakum by 16 (Bush +7), and Pacific she'll win by 4 (Kerry +9).

These are areas where her earlier strategy of playing culture warrior probably worked out badly.  Cowlitz is strongly pro-life.  She just didn't do so well countywide in the primary, and that pattern continued into the General.  I'd have to see precinct results to get more detailed, but there's some oddity.  She did fine in Grays Harbor, which is kind of like Cowlitz except with more of a union tradition.  My inclination is that it's also less Catholic.  Although after Cowlitz's weird 180 on assisted suicide this year (worst county for it last time around, this time passed with like 60%), I don't know what to think.

Media markets may have come into play, as well.  Her performance in Clark isn't really all that amazing, considering how well she did in the Puget Sound 'burbs and her surprise endorsement by The Columbian (plus some other locally favorable news).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 20, 2008, 04:46:19 PM
Yakima's question ballot batch was 64-35 Obama.  Which is, IMHO, a great argument for bringing back bilingual option ballots.

Pet cause, but seriously, didn't we used to have that option?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 20, 2008, 07:32:40 PM
()

Why did Gregoire do so badly in the south of the state [qm].

Something else that is very strange about that map is that, despite Gregoire only getting 53% statewide, she won Island and Skagit counties, which would normally be Republican under such circumstances...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 20, 2008, 07:44:38 PM
()

Why did Gregoire do so badly in the south of the state [qm].

Something else that is very strange about that map is that, despite Gregoire only getting 53% statewide, she won Island and Skagit counties, which would normally be Republican under such circumstances...

Maybe they just wanted to keep the map looking neat and tidy.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 20, 2008, 08:13:29 PM
I wonder why King County just got rid of 15,000 already-counted votes while reducing their ballots remaining by 10,000?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 20, 2008, 10:14:14 PM
I wonder why King County just got rid of 15,000 already-counted votes while reducing their ballots remaining by 10,000?

They're trying to steal the race for Rossi!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 20, 2008, 10:21:08 PM
Final Assessor-Treasurer/County Exec results were out at 6.  An update is posted but I don't know where the RCV algorithm run is.

My guess is McCarthy/Washram (ew) but I'm curious.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 20, 2008, 10:28:10 PM
Yea, final results were 50.75% McCarthy and 51.92% for Washam. The Round 2 elimination of Shabro is within recount territory though... I might send the Tribune an e-mail and try to stir things up.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Sam Spade on November 20, 2008, 10:57:06 PM
What are the odds that the Dems ever get a good candidate against Reichert? (not that this means they would win, which might depend a lot on the environment)  Burner performed worse than Ross did, which is hilarious in many ways.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 20, 2008, 11:02:01 PM
We'll certainly get a different candidate. Whether they'll be better is going to determined by primary voters... the field isn't going to clear like it has the past two cycles.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 21, 2008, 01:16:56 AM
Washington State GOP Confident Despite Loss

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2008368718_gop09m0.html (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2008368718_gop09m0.html)

After what happened in 2006 and 2008 in WA, it takes some level of delusion to feel good at this point.  Or maybe it is just a front.



My thoughts:
I expect Reichert to be the last Republican Representative in the 8th district for a long time. I'm fairly certain the Democrats will be able to take him down once they get a decent candidate. Whether that will ever happen is uncertain, though once Reichert steps down the Democrats should definitely win it.

The GOP is in deep trouble in suburban Seattle. Let's look at the Southern United States---in the 80s and 90s, we saw a lot of Democratic politicans ditch the party and join the GOP. This is quite indicative of a long-term change in the way the area votes. In suburban Seattle we've seen people like Rodney Tom and Fred Jarrett jump ship. It's clear that suburban Seattle is going Democrat and it won't be going back any time soon. We saw this happen in many parts of Seattle like Fremont and Wallingford in the 70s. They used to be Republican and then took a sharp-turn for the left. This example is probably a bit radical, but I do honestly think we're seeing the political Seattleization of suburban Seattle (particular the Northside and Eastside). It's true that some areas, like suburban Pierce County, are becoming the new Republican suburban strongholds, but quite simply they don't even come close to countering the Metro-wide Dem-trend.

As for statewide officials, they'll sneak in some Republicans for sure. Maybe even a Governor. Alcon and I agreed a while ago that Rob McKenna was more likely than Rossi to be the next Republican Governor of Washington. I think McKenna has a very good chance of being Governor eventually and I don't think he has hid his intentions to seek the office. Rossi had one important thing McKenna doesn't, though. Looks. Let's face it, Rossi only did so well because he was a handsome young man up against an ugly old woman. McKenna is an ugly nerd with glasses. It's not something I base my vote on, but considering how shallow your average swing voter is, it's definitely something worth considering. Sonntag is the only Democrat I'd be confident with against McKenna. Though the other mentioned names (Inslee, for example) would also have a good chance (though it's a risk I'd rather not take). I doubt Reed is popular enough with Republicans to make it past the primary and we just saw Sutherland go down this month. Allan Martin was an extremely strong candidate for an open office and he lost (and McIntire did pretty well in some traditionally Democratic areas for such a close election, surprisingly).

Yes.  This is very clear when you look at the representation in the state legislative districts underlying the 8th Congressional District.  There are almost no Republicans left, which is why the Dems keep trying so hard in the 8th, thus far without success.  Maybe Rodney Tom will take a crack next time.  I think Reichert is destined to go the way of Chris Shays.

IMO, the radical right statewide candidates the GOP ran in major races in 1996-2000 --  Ellen Craswell, Linda Smith and John Carlson -- helped turn the suburbs away from the GOP, especially due to social issues.  Then Bush caused the bottom to fall out.  Rossi's views were similar, but he was a better campaigner and better at hiding it.  However, he too cratered in the suburbs this time.  Some of it was due to Obama, but I also noticed a strong late swing among women voters to Gregoire in 2008.  I would hypothesize her attack ads on Rossi's social views may have had an impact.  Perhaps they were also unimpressed with his sham of a transportation plan.

McKenna has a strong chance to win the governor's race in 2012.  With his main rival now out of the way, look for him to consolidate party control over the next 4 years.  Nevertheless, the current state of the WA GOP is terrible:

--With Gregoire's victory, the WA Dems will hold the Governor's Mansion for 28 years.

--Congressional Representation:  6 D, 3 R

--Partisan Statewide Offices Held by Democrats [8]:  Both U.S. Senate Seats, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Treasurer, Auditor, Insurance Commissioner, Lands Commissioner.

--Partisan Statewide Offices Held by Republicans (2):  Attorney General, Secretary of State.

I wonder what sacrificial lamb candidate they will run again Patty Murray in 2010?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 21, 2008, 01:39:57 AM
Maybe they just wanted to keep the map looking neat and tidy.

It's an out of date map. Clallam and Mason have actually flipped to Rossi. Clallam is, of course, normally Republican with such statewide numbers. Mason isn't, and goes along with Cowlitz in lean D counties that Gregoire lost.

What are the odds that the Dems ever get a good candidate against Reichert? (not that this means they would win, which might depend a lot on the environment)  Burner performed worse than Ross did, which is hilarious in many ways.

Burner collapsed at the end because of some silly scandal where she said "major" instead of minor," basically. As for your question, one thing that's important to note is that following Democratic gains in the state legislature in 2004 and 2006, there are many more Democratic state legislators in the 8th district now than there were in 2004 (when Reichert first ran.) Basically there are many more potential challengers who could actually defeat Reichert now. Rodney Tom would be a strong challenger and was going to run for the seat before dropping out and letting Burner have the Democratic nomination. A real shame, too, since he would have actually won the seat.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Sbane on November 21, 2008, 01:48:03 AM
That Reichert seat reminds me of my own district the 11th, a mix of wealthy social liberals and more conservative exurbians. But I guess Reichert isn't a total sh**t for brains like Pombo was. If the dems couldn't win that seat this year, they probably aren't winning it against Reichert.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Sam Spade on November 21, 2008, 11:06:44 AM
That Reichert seat reminds me of my own district the 11th, a mix of wealthy social liberals and more conservative exurbians. But I guess Reichert isn't a total sh**t for brains like Pombo was. If the dems couldn't win that seat this year, they probably aren't winning it against Reichert.

Reichert is definitely not Pombo.  Pombo used to fit that CD decently, but it trended left and he was a standard conservative Republican.  Reichert is much closer to the middle, and fits this CD a good bit better, which is one of the reasons why I wonder how he'd fare should a decent environment arise (which he hasn't had since running, except 2004, but he wasn't an incumbent then).  Granted, Burner was always a terrible challenger, but still..

My comparison here is Kirk (IL-10) who pulled over 60% in the Republican favorable environments of 2002 and 2004 as an incumbent.  Not that I necessarily think Reichert could get there, as Kirk has pulled 53% and 55% these last two years against a Burner-like opponent, but it's something to think about.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 21, 2008, 06:45:35 PM
It currently looks like the race for the newly created King County Elections Director will be between Jason Osgood and Pam Roach. This has to be some sort of cruel sick joke. We're being Punk'd, right?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 21, 2008, 06:59:21 PM
It currently looks like the race for the newly created King County Elections Director will be between Jason Osgood and Pam Roach. This has to be some sort of cruel sick joke. We're being Punk'd, right?

No. Noooo. NOoooOoooooooOoooooOOoooooooOoOoooo. Worst. election. ever. Just thinking about it makes me want to die.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 21, 2008, 07:22:12 PM
It currently looks like the race for the newly created King County Elections Director will be between Jason Osgood and Pam Roach. This has to be some sort of cruel sick joke. We're being Punk'd, right?

I wonder if Osgood will barcode Roach's flower vase


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 22, 2008, 05:34:59 PM
It currently looks like the race for the newly created King County Elections Director will be between Jason Osgood and Pam Roach. This has to be some sort of cruel sick joke. We're being Punk'd, right?

:o :P

I don't know whether to laugh hysterically or scream.  This could be a meltdown of monumental tragicomic proportions.  If there is a debate on TVW between these two I would watch just to gawk at the train wreck.  The Horror Show that began with Julie Anne Kempf and had an even bigger sequel starring Dean Logan now seems destined for a Part 3.  AIEEEEE!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 22, 2008, 09:09:54 PM
I still don't understand the OSPI results


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 22, 2008, 09:16:16 PM
I still don't understand the OSPI results

The best I could figure was that people in districts with lots of Mexicans were more pissed and anti-incumbenty.  Unless they lived in Yakima County in which case god I don't know.

I mean, Dorn clearly did really well in the Tri-Cities and Wenatchee area, like in the primary.  Otherwise it seems like a big mess of WTF.

Wasn't it supposed to be a referendum on the WASL?  I always thought the strongest WASL haters were pretty far-left but it seems that Bergeson did some of her best in liberal-saturated areas.

Maybe this all will make more sense with precinct break-downs but I doubt it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 23, 2008, 04:36:43 PM
A non-partisan race between two Democrats is going to confuse voters.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 25, 2008, 03:06:20 AM
Certification day is tomorrow, so I'll have plenty of fun stuff.  Stupid King County, which will make us wait until December, not included.

For tonight San Juan County is in, and hopped above 70% just in the last report.

San Juan
Final: Obama 70.02%, McCain 28.09%

Mostly boring.  The two most extreme precincts swung toward McCain - he improved Bush's subpar Decatur/Blakely margin (57->just below 60%), and actually pryed off a voter on Waldron, bringing it down to 92-5 Democrat (down from 96-4).  Some third parties also joined in, which is typical.  Major anti-Bush vote there.

As for places with actual significant numbers of people:

Lopez Island went from 72-26 Kerry to 77-20 Obama
Orcas Island went from 65-31 Kerry to 73-26 Obama
Rural San Juan Island went from 63-35 Kerry to 73-26 Obama
Friday Harbor went from 60-37 Kerry to 65-32 Obama

Overall, Kerry +32.70 to Obama +41.93.  That's a swing of 9.23%, which (using the likely-high assumed national trend of 9.5%) is a GOP trend of 0.27%.  Which, really, when you get up around 70%, is to be expected.

Kind of funny to think it used to be the most Republican county in the state.

-

Governor: At Gregoire +13.04%, the biggest swing of the election.  She actually performed nearly identical to Kerry virtually everywhere, except a little worse on parts of San Juan Island.  The Waldron flipper was apparently McCain/Gregoire, and I'm sure will be tracked down, force-fed non-organic food, and limited to only one toilet (http://www.idiotlaws.com/dumb_laws/washington/waldron-island/).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 25, 2008, 04:00:56 PM
Early PierceCo numbers (this will become more GOP).  Includes only Pierce County portions (which is like 20 votes in Pacific), does not include consolidations.  Kerry in parentheses.

Municipality
Auburn: 55-44 Obama (49-51)
Bonney Lake: 51-48 Obama (46-52)
Buckley: 48-48 Obama (46-53)
Carbonado: 61-36 McCain (34-63)
DuPont: 50-49 Obama (41-57)
Eatonville: 49-49 McCain (43-56)
Edgewood: 51-47 Obama (47-51)
Fife: 61-37 Obama (57-42)
Fircrest: 61-38 Obama (54-45)
Gig Harbor: 53-46 Obama (46-53)
Lakewood: 56-42 Obama (51-48)
Milton: 55-44 Obama (51-48)
Orting: 50-48 Obama (45-53)
Pacific: 52-48 Obama (37-63)
Puyallup: 54-44 Obama (48-51)
Roy: 57-39 McCain (38-62)
Ruston: 66-32 Obama (63-33)
South Prairie: 52-48 McCain (46-51)
Steilacoom: 52-46 Obama (49-49)
Sumner: 55-43 Obama (52-47)
Tacoma: 68-30 Obama (62-37)
University Place: 59-40 Obama (52-47)
Wilkeson: 49-48 Obama (52-46)

LD
2nd: 50-48 McCain (42-56)
25th: 53-45 Obama (47-52)
26th: 52-47 Obama (46-53)
27th: 69-30 Obama (63-36)
28th: 56-42 Obama (50-49)
29th: 64-34 Obama (59-40)
31st: 51-47 Obama (46-53)

Predictably, McCain just lost it in the middle-class suburbs here too.

New totals:

Auburn: 55-43 Obama (flip)
Bonney Lake: 49-49 Obama (flip)
Buckley: 50-48 Obama (flip)
Carbonado: 62-34 McCain
DuPont: 50-49 McCain
Eatonville: 51-47 McCain
Edgewood: 50-48 Obama (flip)
Fife: 60-38 Obama
Fircrest: 59-39 Obama
Gig Harbor: 52-47 Obama (flip)
Lakewood: 56-42 Obama
Milton: 54-44 Obama (flip)
Orting: 49-49 McCain
Pacific: 49-47 Obama (flip)
Puyallup: 53-46 Obama (flip)
Roy: 53-45 McCain
Ruston: 64-34 Obama
South Prairie: 51-45 McCain
Steilacoom: 52-46 Obama
Sumner: 54-43 Obama
Tacoma: 67-31 Obama
University Place: 58-40 Obama
Wilkeson: 49-48 McCain (flip)

Also: Obama carries Fort Lewis 50-48 (flip)

2nd: 51-47 McCain
25th: 52-46 Obama (flip)
26th: 50-48 Obama (flip)
27th: 68-31 Obama
28th: 56-43 Obama
29th: 64-34 Obama
31st: 50-48 Obama (flip)

I have full final precinct returns from: Asotin, Benton, Chelan, Clallam, Cowlitz, Douglas, Ferry, Franklin, Garfield, Grays Harbor, Island, Jefferson, Klickitat, Lewis, Lewis, Lincoln, Mason, Okanogan, Pacific, Pend Oreille, Pierce, San Juan, Skagit, Skamania, Snohomish, Spokane, Stevens, Thurston and Wahkiakum.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 25, 2008, 11:20:51 PM
Record turnout - 84.61%

yay democracy


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on November 26, 2008, 12:16:58 AM
That's bad. Low turnout is the sign of a stable democracy.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lunar on November 26, 2008, 03:30:50 AM
Ok guys, Washington has been fully discussed.

It's complete.

Time to go home.

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 26, 2008, 03:36:46 AM
But we still have another 5 or 6 pages out of this thread - Alcon just got his hands on precinct data!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lunar on November 26, 2008, 03:40:48 AM
nooooooooooooooooooooooo


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 26, 2008, 03:48:07 AM
Never! I would like to see this become an ever-lasting general Washington thread.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 26, 2008, 10:13:46 AM
Oregon beat us, though: 85.56% turnout there.  Without poll voters, our turnout would have been 84.74% so they still win.  Lame!

And, yeah, this thread isn't done.  lord man, king county precinct results won't be out until December, you nuts?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 26, 2008, 05:24:13 PM
I now have every county but Adams, Columbia, King, Kittitas, Walla Walla, Whatcom and Whitman.

Highest Percentage of Vote
Obama
1. Port Townsend - 80.49%
2. Nespelem - 79.37%
3. Index - 79.21%
4. Mabton - 78.79%
5. Bainbridge Island - 77.85%
6. Langley - 77.74%
7. Wapato - 75.32%
8. Toppenish - 75.08%
9. Winthrop - 73.36%
10. Bellingham - 73.22%

McCain
1. Hartline - 74.70%
2. Mansfield - 73.41%
3. Waverly - 72.41%
4. Lynden - 71.47%
5. Reardan - 68.92%
6. Pomeroy - 67.09%
7. Napavine - 66.95%
8. Krupp - 66.67%
9. Kahlotus - 66.67%
10. Davenport - 66.63%

Lowest Percentage of Vote
Obama
1. Waverly - 24.14%
2. Mansfield - 24.28%
3. Hartline - 25.30%
4. Krupp - 26.67%
5. Lynden - 26.73%
6. Ione (+rural) - 30.09%
7. Reardan - 30.41%
8. Napavine - 30.46%
9. Pomeroy - 31.05%
10. Davenport - 31.27%

McCain
1. Nespelem - 15.87%
2. Port Townsend - 17.55%
3. Index - 19.80%
4. Langley - 20.25%
5. Mabton - 20.54%
6. Bainbridge Island - 20.79%
7. Wapato - 22.63%
8. Toppenish - 23.65%
9. Olympia - 24.64%
10. Bellingham - 24.85%

Biggest Swing
Obama
1. Riverside - +42.37%
2. Rock Island - +34.65%
3. Quincy - +29.97%
4. Creston - +29.80%
5. Warden - +27.39%
6. Winlock - +26.66%
7. North Bonneville - +26.45%
8. George - +26.45%
9. Toppenish - +26.05%
10. Royal City - +25.62%

McCain
1. Krupp - +14.19%
2. Hartline - +13.04%
3. Wilkeson - +6.75%
4. Sprague - +5.91%
5. Metaline Falls (+rural) - +4.45%
6. Vader - +4.38%
7. Ilwaco - +3.82%
8. Hamilton - +2.16%
9. Roslyn - +1.03%
10. Pomeroy - +0.94%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 26, 2008, 08:35:44 PM
How many people live in Krupp?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 26, 2008, 10:51:21 PM
Are these all your personal photos? And if so, when and why did you take the time to visit all the hamlets of Klickitat County?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 26, 2008, 11:06:59 PM
Are these all your personal photos? And if so, when and why did you take the time to visit all the hamlets of Klickitat County?

haha, yeah.  Knowledge Bowl meets in Camas.  Both times we detoured before meeting friends in Portland.

The first year we just got to Stevenson, but it was really nice, so we tried again the next year with my dad and made it all to Maryhill.  My dad and I like going to the small towns and my mom generously tolerates me.  It's kind of interesting to see the geography change from Western fir forests to high plains scrub-brush without crossing any major mountains.

needless to say it was the nicest part about being eliminated early :P

Haha, neat. We moved up to 2A this year so we'll get to go to Camas instead of crummy Spokane :D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 26, 2008, 11:11:41 PM
I thought you guys were like 3A or 4A? 2A is harder than 1A we think, but the coach really wanted to change for some reason...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 26, 2008, 11:17:38 PM
I'm pretty sure you guys are 4A, so fortunately we won't have to play your types. We go up against the likes of Fife (tremble in terror!)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 26, 2008, 11:31:07 PM
I'm pretty sure you guys are 4A, so fortunately we won't have to play your types. We go up against the likes of Fife (tremble in terror!)

Hey, the eventual final winner in our league I believe was Stevenson (which is in Stevenson).  You never know

(Except with Fife.  There's nothing to do there but sell used cars and do meth or both at once.  You'll kill 'em)

We beat Stevenson in our final round... are they playing in two leagues? ???


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 26, 2008, 11:35:13 PM
I'm pretty sure you guys are 4A, so fortunately we won't have to play your types. We go up against the likes of Fife (tremble in terror!)

Hey, the eventual final winner in our league I believe was Stevenson (which is in Stevenson).  You never know

(Except with Fife.  There's nothing to do there but sell used cars and do meth or both at once.  You'll kill 'em)

We beat Stevenson in our final round... are they playing in two leagues? ???

Seriously?  I was so sure we played Stevenson.  They have 383 kids, so unless all of their kids play Knowledge Bowl...I don't know what town I'm confusing it with.

I remember it was tiny, and in one of the towns I passed.  I dunno, White Salmon?  Either way it was weird.

The captain of the Stevenson team was wearing a kilt... I could tell something was wrong with the place.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 27, 2008, 12:13:29 AM
Logical reason for the uber-Republican precinct in the South?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: MaxQue on November 27, 2008, 12:16:46 AM
Knowledge Bowl. I'm happy than I googled that. I discovered than this was almost the same thing than ''Génies en herbe'' in Quebec.

I already was a provincial champion of that. Sure, the format is very different, but that is very cool to win against those private big cities schools when you come from a medium sided rural town with a public school.

Very good work on those maps. I have a question. Indian reservations vote for which party?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 27, 2008, 12:22:25 AM
Logical reason for the uber-Republican precinct in the South?

Went from 46-25 Bush to 40-17 McCain

Looks like this (http://maps.live.com/default.aspx?v=2&FORM=LMLTCP&cp=45.609624~-122.462518&style=h&lvl=16&tilt=-90&dir=0&alt=-1000&scene=5556114&phx=0&phy=0&phscl=1&encType=1).  No idea why it lost so many voters, but basically a blip.  Helps that it's a little unincorporated island -- no municipal taxes, attracts more Republicans.

Mostly a blip, though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 27, 2008, 12:25:25 AM
Very good work on those maps. I have a question. Indian reservations vote for which party?

Way Democratic.  Obama didn't really do so well in Reservation areas, slightly worse than Kerry in some -- Clintonites and some third-party leak.  Gregoire did better.  Obama still won them, though, and out-performed Kerry by a good stretch on some reservations.

I also think McCain improved slightly because politically apathetic Indians are more likely to consider voting Republican.  Poll places got eliminated since 2004.  Just a guess.  I'll have to look at it more.

The area around Nespelem on the Okanogan County map is Indian country, as is the random dark red in northern Kitsap County.  The red areas west of Bainbridge Island on the map area also part of Port Madison Indian Reservation, but I think it's like 10% Indian.  Most of it is Bainbridge-type spillover.

Obama's second-best county in the U.S., Shannon, South Dakota, is the Pine Ridge Reservation.  He did stellar with plains Indians, and in the Southwest, where he did tribal connections.  Not so much of that in the NW, obv.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lunar on November 27, 2008, 12:37:34 AM

:(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 27, 2008, 12:53:00 AM
I just got a Pierce County shapefile from the Democrats guy!  :)

Next up:  Clark County swing map, then Pierce stuff.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 27, 2008, 01:23:30 AM
Can you do the County Executive race for Pierce? Or is the program not capable of doing a race with more than two candidates?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 27, 2008, 01:56:43 AM
Can you do the County Executive race for Pierce? Or is the program not capable of doing a race with more than two candidates?

This program = Me with an Excel sheet and a color palette I made :P It can do whatever information I modify the shapefile to contain the values of.

I can do it but it'll be 215% more of a bitch.  I also can only get what's included in the precinct file, of course.

I'll probably just take the margin scale and apply it to percent, or something.  I'll figure it out.

Oh, the guy from the Democrats emailed me back this along with the precinct shapefiles:

Quote
I'm the coordinator of the Maps and History project of the Washington State Democratic Chairs organization.  What we need are database digestible election results from around the state down to the precinct level.  Everything we have, we're putting up into the history pages that you can access on Fred's server.  If you have results from any elections that you don't see, please let us know what you have.

Eventually, I'd love to get these kinds of maps and history available for all 39 counties, free and online.

Pretty cool.  I guess I'll be in contact with him.

Just finished Pierce maps, uploading them now.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 27, 2008, 02:11:37 AM
Goddamn 28-451


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 27, 2008, 02:20:46 AM

What'd 28-451 do specifically among McCain precincts? :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 27, 2008, 02:25:04 AM

It taints my visual continuity of the 28th. >:(

There are also other parts of the district that are just as rich as 28-451 and didn't have any problem voting for Obama. They need to get with the picture.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 27, 2008, 02:28:49 AM

It taints my visual continuity of the 28th. >:(

There are also other parts of the district that are just as rich as 28-451 and didn't have any problem voting for Obama. They need to get with the picture.

You could always move here to the 27th, where we not only have visual continuity, but also not a single McCain precinct.  :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 27, 2008, 02:37:13 AM

It taints my visual continuity of the 28th. >:(

There are also other parts of the district that are just as rich as 28-451 and didn't have any problem voting for Obama. They need to get with the picture.

You could always move here to the 27th, while not only do we have visual continuity, but not a single McCain precinct.  :P

But then I'd have to be a Tacoma elitist. :(  I'm much more comfortable in real Pierce County. :D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 27, 2008, 02:41:51 AM
The perceptions, judgments and prejudices in my head are far more important. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 27, 2008, 05:24:35 AM
While I'm at it, any requests?

Pierce County Exec I'm up for.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 27, 2008, 05:28:14 AM
Do you have a Whitman map? That might be neat.

Also the Governor's race in Clark, maybe Goldmark in Okanogan


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 27, 2008, 05:35:30 AM
No sleep till the maps are done!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 28, 2008, 07:27:14 AM
Don't know if you already know about this/whether it might be interesting at all, but there's a link on the Redistricting Commission's website to shapefiles for Legislative Districts: http://www.redistricting.wa.gov/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 28, 2008, 04:23:42 PM
McCain only had one >60 LD? Strange.

The West Seattle/Vashon district being >30 McCain also seems weird.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 28, 2008, 05:51:53 PM
Obama winning the 15th is just bizarre.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 28, 2008, 07:21:54 PM
Obama winning the 15th is just bizarre.

Not super-bizarre, but definitely impressive.  Lots of Hispanics in the Yakima County portion.  Cantwell won it, and Bush won it by less than 10% (9.99% actually).  It surprised me, though; I would have expected Obama to have fallen short by a point or two.  Basically, Obama rocked the towns along the Columbia River, did well-enough in the inland white areas (average swings), and cleaned up among Hispanics.

McCain had only one >60, and it was 62-37 (down from 66-33).  Bush had eight.  The GOP losing its shirt in Okanogan County, with Hispanics, and among urban Eastern WA swing voters pretty much shot him.

The West Seattle/Vashon district is going to be in the very low 20s, I just f'ed up the shading on that one.  Fixed now.

Btw: Nothing here contains write-ins.  Dave counts those as votes; I don't, because Washington state law considers rejected write-ins to be effective undervotes.  Plus I like King County being 70% shaded.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 28, 2008, 10:18:34 PM
Not mine, but interesting

()

Spanaway (where Bush did pretty stunningly for a Republican in 2004) and Parkland seem to have been fit pretty hard, and Midland/etc. didn't hold up so well eitehr.

The growth areas are less interesting and have more to do with population changes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on November 29, 2008, 03:57:28 PM
I never realized how strongly Democratic Bainbridge Island was.

Anyways, the LD results are very interesting. It definitely gives a better picture of the election.

The changes in the Eastside are pretty clear. Only a few years ago, the Republicans were competitive in districts like the 41st, but this election we gave a >60% vote to Obama. Every district in King Co. voted for Obama!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: NOVA Green on November 29, 2008, 05:41:00 PM
And now, a place where people actually live!  Thank God for the flu, gives me an excuse to do this all day for three days.

Kitsap
() (http://www.goldengiven.net/junk/maps/2008PREZ/kitsap_new.png)

() (http://www.goldengiven.net/junk/maps/2008PREZ/kitsap_old.png)

Any word on naval base precincts? I know much of county's economic navy related, but curious about how Bremerton proper, and base precincts went this time around.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 29, 2008, 08:17:17 PM
Any word on naval base precincts? I know much of county's economic navy related, but curious about how Bremerton proper, and base precincts went this time around.

The Navy ship voters are put in with Bremerton 1, which is also a downtown precinct.  I'm not sure what proportion of the voting population they are, but they can't be super-Republican.  Obama won that precinct 64-34 Obama, after Kerry won it 58-39.

The Trident Naval Base precinct (from the top of Bainbridge Island all the way east, the darkest blue precinct) went from 76-23 Bush to 58-41 McCain.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 29, 2008, 11:40:42 PM
Yeah, the GOP is basically as dead on Bainbridge it is in Seattle.  Pretty funny to see rural McMansion precincts where Obama broke 80%.

Mason County (probably the most boringly even county in the state):

() (http://www.goldengiven.net/junk/maps/2008PREZ/mason_new.png)

() (http://www.goldengiven.net/junk/maps/2008PREZ/mason_old.png)

Can anyone guess where the two main indian reservations are?
;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 29, 2008, 11:43:16 PM
Is there Indian land around Kamilche?  I thought it was just the Skokomish Rez in Mason, but there's gotta be some reason Kamilche is liberal.

Although it was barely >60 so it may just be a blip.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: NOVA Green on November 30, 2008, 01:19:08 AM
Any word on naval base precincts? I know much of county's economic navy related, but curious about how Bremerton proper, and base precincts went this time around.

The Navy ship voters are put in with Bremerton 1, which is also a downtown precinct.  I'm not sure what proportion of the voting population they are, but they can't be super-Republican.  Obama won that precinct 64-34 Obama, after Kerry won it 58-39.

The Trident Naval Base precinct (from the top of Bainbridge Island all the way east, the darkest blue precinct) went from 76-23 Bush to 58-41 McCain.

Alcon, have you cross-posted this on the military vote thread in the '08 election results area?

It's starting to look like there is at least a +15 Dem  swing in NW base precincts. I would post some for Oregon, but I don't think there is anything outside of maybe a precinct with a slight Coast Guard influence... :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on November 30, 2008, 01:49:18 AM
I'm surprised areas of Mason Co. such as Hoodsport and other tourist resort areas were not as strongly Democratic. Obama did strongly among those groups, but maybe they don't actually live near the tourist resort areas (such as Alderbrook). Hood Canal... I wonder how many people actually vote in those precincts because most of the people there are summer vacation homeowners.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 30, 2008, 07:11:46 PM
Chelan has some... interesting precincts.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 30, 2008, 07:32:14 PM
Chelan has some... interesting precincts.

The shapes are weird because there are a few arterials and most people live within a few miles of them on off-roads.  After that it's basically National Forest Service land.  Makes things look really weird (and ugly).  The dark red is Holden Village, which is a spiritualist Lutheran camp or something.  Went 36-4-2 Obama.

Skamania kind of has that too, most of the interior precincts are really low-population.  Almost everyone lives near the river (unlike Klickitat, while has the Goldendale Valley)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 30, 2008, 11:06:23 PM
Is there Indian land around Kamilche?  I thought it was just the Skokomish Rez in Mason, but there's gotta be some reason Kamilche is liberal.

Although it was barely >60 so it may just be a blip.

Kamilche = Squaxin


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 02, 2008, 06:31:27 AM
I was bored, so I made some maps! :D They're not as good quality as Alcon's because I'm not a demi-God. And I switched red and blue to make them usable to the general population.

28th State Rep. Pos. 1 on top, Pos. 2 on bottom

()()

The only sort of interesting things (although not unexpected) is Kelley doing worse in south Lakewood than Green - whether that was because it was Dooley's home turf or because it was Green's home turf is up for debate. Kelley also rocked the military parts of the district compared to Green (may have something to do with Kelley being in the military). Green lost 28-451 by 1 vote. It continues to be my least favorite precinct in the district (Giving Muri 70%? Really? I know he lives there, but you guys of all people should know what he's like...)

And now the painful one

()

Um, yea... ow. Srail doing better in UP than Fircrest (compared to an average Dem who would get 43% of the vote) is probably attributed to parents of her students.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: platypeanArchcow on December 02, 2008, 02:07:08 PM
I was bored, so I made some maps! :D They're not as good quality as Alcon's because I'm not a demi-God. And I switched red and blue to make them usable to the general population.

Tip: don't use JPEG for images with large fields of even color.  PNG compresses such things better and doesn't introduce artifacts.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 02, 2008, 03:36:12 PM
Wrong colors! >:(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 02, 2008, 03:39:36 PM
I was bored, so I made some maps! :D They're not as good quality as Alcon's because I'm not a demi-God. And I switched red and blue to make them usable to the general population.

Tip: don't use JPEG for images with large fields of even color.  PNG compresses such things better and doesn't introduce artifacts.

It's saved as a PNG file on my computer, but for some reason it switched it when I uploaded. I'll see if I can fix it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 02, 2008, 03:50:04 PM
Images fixed.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on December 02, 2008, 05:42:47 PM
What about Thurston?

:(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 02, 2008, 06:01:28 PM

I have a probable Thurston source, but I want to try the county directly first.  I don't want to push my luck, since I already used them for Pierce.

I'll call the county now.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 02, 2008, 06:19:38 PM
I called Thurston.  They normally charge $50, but the lady working there said they'll probably make an exemption.  I just need to talk directly with the lady who specializes in shapefiles tomorrow.

I should probably have it tomorrow afternoon-ish.  Adams County should be up later this afternoon.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 02, 2008, 06:57:20 PM
Are there any Democratic precincts in Adams County?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 02, 2008, 07:11:52 PM
Are there any Democratic precincts in Adams County?

Othello Rural #1 is primarily Hispanic and any Democrat worth their salt should carry it.  Naturally, Kerry lost it by 14 points.

Othello #3 is similar, but more Republican.  Hard to judge by the 2006 Senate numbers -- Cantwell won it narrowly, and Obama should benefit from increased Hispanic turnout.  But Cantwell also did better in Adams County than Obama among whites.

There are two small Othello precincts:  One Cantwell won, but went 90% Bush; the other has a pretty strong GOP race, but small precincts can behave oddly.

Beyond that, we're getting into 30% margins (Ritzville Ward 1 & Othello #2), and then out into "it'd take a miracle."  I think Othello Rural #1 is at least a 60% shot, though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Daniel Z on December 02, 2008, 07:14:39 PM
I called Thurston.  They normally charge $50, but the lady working there said they'll probably make an exemption.  I just need to talk directly with the lady who specializes in shapefiles tomorrow.

I should probably have it tomorrow afternoon-ish.  Adams County should be up later this afternoon.
Great!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 02, 2008, 10:18:11 PM
adams county sux

second day in a row she was going to send it before she went home.  boo.

King on Friday, at least.  Is it a little sad that that's the most exciting thing in my week?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 03, 2008, 12:17:37 AM
OSPI! Bergeson in green, Dorn in yellow

()

It really makes a lot of sense when you break it down by precinct.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 03, 2008, 12:44:33 AM
Mind explaining that one?

Seems Bergeson did really well among old voters and areas that tend to like unthreatening incumbents...beyond that "gruhh?"

I'm planning to do a full-county SPI with King and Pierce, and maybe others if King and Pierce as a whole aren't boring.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: jimrtex on December 03, 2008, 01:35:39 AM
 Washington Legislature History  (http://www.leg.wa.gov/documents/lic/Documents/Subscriptions_End_of_Session_Historical/MembersOfLeg%202005.pdf)

You might be interested in this.  Starting on page 157 (162 of the .PDF file) you'll find legislative district maps since statehood. 

There is also some stuff on the territorial legislature.  Early on the the population centers were Vancouver, Clarke County (sic until 1924); and Olympia, Thurston County.  The next boom was in Walla Walla.  Tacoma and then Seattle were somewhat later developers.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 03, 2008, 01:54:59 AM
Mind explaining that one?

Seems Bergeson did really well among old voters and areas that tend to like unthreatening incumbents...beyond that "gruhh?"

I'm planning to do a full-county SPI with King and Pierce, and maybe others if King and Pierce as a whole aren't boring.

Oh I have no idea what the hell it means - I was being sarcastic.

Older voters is somewhat of a common thread, although a few of those UP and Lakewood precincts aren't that old... I tried to piece something together on income but that basically falls flat when you look at the part of UP nearest to the water.

Nearly every precinct was >50% though, and most somewhere in the 50%-53% range, so I think which way a lot of these precincts swung was as close to random as election results can get.

Just a bizarre race overall.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 03, 2008, 02:03:18 AM
Awesome stuff Jim.  I'll look at it more in the morning.  I knew that Grays Harbor County used to be Chehalis County, but not about Clark-with-an-"e."  Growth redistricting should be cool, too.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 03, 2008, 02:06:02 AM
Washington Legislature History  (http://www.leg.wa.gov/documents/lic/Documents/Subscriptions_End_of_Session_Historical/MembersOfLeg%202005.pdf)

You might be interested in this.  Starting on page 157 (162 of the .PDF file) you'll find legislative district maps since statehood. 

There is also some stuff on the territorial legislature.  Early on the the population centers were Vancouver, Clarke County (sic until 1924); and Olympia, Thurston County.  The next boom was in Walla Walla.  Tacoma and then Seattle were somewhat later developers.

Yeah. Southeastern Washington used to have as many people as the Puget Sound.

Awesome stuff Jim.  I'll look at it more in the morning.  I knew that Grays Harbor County used to be Chehalis County, but not about Clark-with-an-"e."  Growth redistricting should be cool, too.

I DID, CUZ I'M AWESOME.

Wasn't Kitsap "Slaughter County" originally?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 03, 2008, 02:08:29 AM
Washington Legislature History  (http://www.leg.wa.gov/documents/lic/Documents/Subscriptions_End_of_Session_Historical/MembersOfLeg%202005.pdf)

You might be interested in this.  Starting on page 157 (162 of the .PDF file) you'll find legislative district maps since statehood. 

There is also some stuff on the territorial legislature.  Early on the the population centers were Vancouver, Clarke County (sic until 1924); and Olympia, Thurston County.  The next boom was in Walla Walla.  Tacoma and then Seattle were somewhat later developers.

Yeah. Southeastern Washington used to have as many people as the Puget Sound.

Awesome stuff Jim.  I'll look at it more in the morning.  I knew that Grays Harbor County used to be Chehalis County, but not about Clark-with-an-"e."  Growth redistricting should be cool, too.

I DID, CUZ I'M AWESOME.

Wasn't Kitsap "Slaughter County" originally?

Yep, and Mason was originally Sawamish County.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: jimrtex on December 03, 2008, 08:50:42 PM
Awesome stuff Jim.  I'll look at it more in the morning.  I knew that Grays Harbor County used to be Chehalis County, but not about Clark-with-an-"e."  Growth redistricting should be cool, too.
I thought it pretty weird that Clarke was spelled with an 'e', especially since I guessed it was name for William Clark.  So I did a little bit of googling.  It was originally named Clark, when Oregon Territory created two counties north of the Columbia River.  The other was Lewis.  The 1850 Census for "Washington" is based on these two counties.

In 1853, an error by a clerk transformed Clark into Clarke County, and the name stuck until 1924.  I'm not sure if this was before or after Washington Territory was split off.

I have a census history of county population which shows the source counties for new counties, and it showed that all the counties from Whatcom to Thurston were formed from both Lewis and Clark counties.  So I spent some more time trying to find some old maps.

Incidentally, there is a musical group Lewis & Clarke, but they claim to be named after C.S. Lewis and Arthur C. Clarke.

I eventually found this animation:

 Washington Counties 1844 — 1911  (http://www.ac.wwu.edu/~stephan/Animation/wa.div.html)

As you can see, Lewis was the western county, and Clark was the eastern county, but the boundary was not the Cascade crest, but a north/south line to its west.   Soon counties were created from Lewis County on either side of Puget Sound and the eastern boundary of Whatcom, Island, King, and Pierce counties was established on the crest.

The SoS office has a bunch of historical maps (high quality scans), as well as an online exhibit of redistricting, which it includes oral histories, newspaper accounts, etc.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 04, 2008, 04:23:06 PM
King County canvass is out a day early.  And I have finals study.

grr!

A quick look-over then I really should focus.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 04, 2008, 04:38:08 PM
Early observations:

- Obama looks to have won every precinct in Seattle unless some weirdness happened.  Broadmoor flipped to Obama +7 (points, the best a Democrat has ever done there in history) and he broke 60% at the Madison Park condos-for-Bush precinct

- McCain retained ultra-partisan GOP Hunts Point by 12 points, so maybe the Gold Coast wasn't total murder

- Damn this file is huge


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 04, 2008, 04:52:09 PM
My precinct in Sammamish: 68% Obama

*falls on floor laughing at the dying Eastside GOP*


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 04, 2008, 05:25:24 PM
* = Contains portions of other counties.

Algona: 56-42 Obama
Auburn*: 56-42 Obama
Beaux Arts Village: 66-34 Obama
Bellevue: 64-35 Obama
Black Diamond: 50-49 Obama
Bothell*: 61-37 Obama
Burien: 67-31 Obama
Carnation: 62-36 Obama
Clyde Hill: 51-48 Obama
Covington: 55-43 Obama
Des Moines: 63-35 Obama
Duvall: 55-43 Obama
Enumclaw: 50-48 Obama
Federal Way: 61-38 Obama
Hunts Point: 56-43 McCain
Issaquah: 63-36 Obama
Kenmore: 67-32 Obama
Kent: 61-37 Obama
Kirkland: 66-33 Obama
Lake Forest Park: 74-24 Obama
Maple Valley: 52-46 Obama
Medina: 54-46 Obama
Mercer Island: 67-32 Obama
Milton*: 54-44 Obama
Newcastle: 61-37 Obama
Normandy Park: 59-40 Obama
North Bend: 58-40 Obama
Pacific*: 55-42 Obama
Redmond: 66-32 Obama
Renton: 67-32 Obama
Sammamish: 59-39 Obama
SeaTac: 66-32 Obama
Seattle: 85-14 Obama (beating San Francisco)
Shoreline: 73-25 Obama
Skykomish: 66-30 Obama
Snoqualmie: 58-41 Obama
Tukwila: 72-27 Obama
Woodinville: 62-37 Obama
Yarrow Point: 55-44 Obama

(Vashon Island was 80-18 Obama; as a whole, unincorporated was 60-39 Obama)

LD:

1st*: 61-37 Obama
5th: 57-41 Obama
11th: 71-27 Obama
30th: 59-39 Obama
31st*: 50-48 Obama
32nd*: 70-29 Obama
33rd: 64-35 Obama
34th: 78-21 Obama
36th: 84-15 Obama
37th: 86-13 Obama
41st: 64-35 Obama
43rd: 89-10 Obama
45th: 61-38 Obama
46th: 83-16 Obama
47th: 56-43 Obama
48th: 64-35 Obama

Final CD:

1st: 62-36 Obama
2nd: 56-42 Obama
3rd: 52-46 Obama
4th: 58-40 McCain
5th: 51-46 McCain
6th: 57-41 Obama
7th: 84-15 Obama
8th: 57-42 Obama
9th: 59-39 Obama


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on December 04, 2008, 08:07:07 PM
These results are insane... The Washington GOP should be freaked out right now after the drilling they got in various parts of the state. I am especially suprised at how pro-Obama WA-08 and WA-05 were (he only lost 05 by 5%!!!). Though I am a bit sad to see that my congressional district (03) has remained so moderate and is now more conservative than WA-08, eventhough we at least have a democratic congressman.

But seriously the results out of King county show that if the green party became serious they could actually out perform the GOP in a number of areas. That or the Washington GOP needs to drastically move towards the center/left.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: NOVA Green on December 04, 2008, 08:34:47 PM
* = Contains portions of other counties.

Algona: 56-42 Obama
Auburn*: 56-42 Obama
Beaux Arts Village: 66-34 Obama
Bellevue: 64-35 Obama
Black Diamond: 50-49 Obama
Bothell*: 61-37 Obama
Burien: 67-31 Obama
Carnation: 62-36 Obama
Clyde Hill: 51-48 Obama
Covington: 55-43 Obama
Des Moines: 63-35 Obama
Duvall: 55-43 Obama
Enumclaw: 50-48 Obama
Federal Way: 61-38 Obama
Hunts Point: 56-43 McCain
Issaquah: 63-36 Obama
Kenmore: 67-32 Obama
Kent: 61-37 Obama
Kirkland: 66-33 Obama
Lake Forest Park: 74-24 Obama
Maple Valley: 52-46 Obama
Medina: 54-46 Obama
Mercer Island: 67-32 Obama
Milton*: 54-44 Obama
Newcastle: 61-37 Obama
Normandy Park: 59-40 Obama
North Bend: 58-40 Obama
Pacific*: 55-42 Obama
Redmond: 66-32 Obama
Renton: 67-32 Obama
Sammamish: 59-39 Obama
SeaTac: 66-32 Obama
Seattle: 85-14 Obama (beating San Francisco)
Shoreline: 73-25 Obama
Skykomish: 66-30 Obama
Snoqualmie: 58-41 Obama
Tukwila: 72-27 Obama
Woodinville: 62-37 Obama
Yarrow Point: 55-44 Obama

(Vashon Island was 80-18 Obama; as a whole, unincorporated was 60-39 Obama)

LD:

1st*: 61-37 Obama
5th: 57-41 Obama
11th: 71-27 Obama
30th: 59-39 Obama
31st*: 50-48 Obama
32nd*: 70-29 Obama
33rd: 64-35 Obama
34th: 78-21 Obama
36th: 84-15 Obama
37th: 86-13 Obama
41st: 64-35 Obama
43rd: 89-10 Obama
45th: 61-38 Obama
46th: 83-16 Obama
47th: 56-43 Obama
48th: 64-35 Obama

Final CD:

1st: 62-36 Obama
2nd: 56-42 Obama
3rd: 52-46 Obama
4th: 58-40 McCain
5th: 51-46 McCain
6th: 57-41 Obama
7th: 84-15 Obama
8th: 57-42 Obama
9th: 59-39 Obama

Uber cool!!!

Wait to hear the phrase "Seattle Liberals" replace "San Fransisco Liberals" on O'Reilly.

Those numbers from Bellevue and Renton are extremely bad news for national Republicans...

It will be hard to see how a national ticket can be competitive in the NW again with numbers like these from suburban Seattle and Portland.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Sbane on December 04, 2008, 09:35:26 PM
Seattle is impressive, but I am way more impressed by those eastside numbers. Almost every single one above 60%...wow.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on December 04, 2008, 11:39:22 PM
The Eastside swing is incredible. I am in utter shock. Wow... Sammamish almost at 60% for a democrat!! That's just shocking. Some of these swings are just unbelievable. Did any place swing for McCain? Could you do a map of the cities? And what about Unincorporated King Co.?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 05, 2008, 12:23:00 AM
The Eastside swing is incredible. I am in utter shock. Wow... Sammamish almost at 60% for a democrat!! That's just shocking. Some of these swings are just unbelievable. Did any place swing for McCain? Could you do a map of the cities? And what about Unincorporated King Co.?

Skykomish barely swung - +35.71% to +36.45%.

A few scattered precincts swung McCain (noise happens), but no.

Not sure what you mean by a city map, something like this?

()

Unincorporated King County was 59.7%-38.7% Obama.

Interestingly, there isn't a single Republican precinct along the immediate I-5 cooridor from Marysville to McChord AFB.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 05, 2008, 12:22:25 PM
The Sixth was only 57% Obama? What did Kerry get there?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 05, 2008, 12:27:00 PM
The Sixth was only 57% Obama? What did Kerry get there?

53%.  It's Gig Harbor + urban Tacoma + southern Kitsap/western Bremerton + Mason + Jefferson + Clallam + Grays Harbor.  Other than urban Tacoma and Jefferson, none of those areas are super-Democratic.

The Pierce County portion was only 56% Kerry, and under half of the district's vote.  The rest of the district was only 51%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 05, 2008, 12:29:41 PM
Huh. I suppose Dicks' ritual pillaging of Doug Cloud's dignity gave me a false impression.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 05, 2008, 10:33:49 PM
Seattle neighborhood results:

Obama
1. Mann (Central District 23rd Ave/MLK) - 96.05%
2. Madrona - 93.76%
3. Minor (Central District 12th/23rd) - 93.73%
4. Broadway - 93.65%
5. Stevens (Cap Hill 15th Ave) - 92.37%
6. Leschi - 91.50%
7. Fremont - 90.73%
8. Mt. Baker - 90.35%
9. Atlantic - 90.24%
10. Phinney Ridge - 89.96%
...
84. Alki - 76.24%
85. Southeast Magnolia - 76.11%
86. Arbor Heights - 74.57%
87. Madison Park - 71.09%
88. Briarcliff - 70.39%

McCain
1. Briarcliff - 28.70%
2. Madison Park - 27.89%
3. Arbor Heights - 23.98%
4. Southeast Magnolia - 22.73%
5. Alki - 22.34%
6. Laurelhurst - 22.50%
7. North Beach/Blue Ridge - 21.92%
8. Fauntleroy - 21.19%
9. View Ridge - 21.08%
10. Pike Market - 20.90%
...
84. Stevens - 6.58%
85. Madrona - 5.38%
86. Minor - 4.74%
87. Broadway - 4.72%
88. Mann - 2.68%

Gregoire
1. Mann - 93.11%
2. Minor - 91.96%
3. Broadway - 91.91%
4. Stevens - 89.06%
5. Madrona - 88.71%
6. Atlantic - 88.37%
7. Columbia City - 87.72%
8. Wallingford - 86.78%
9. Leschi - 86.75%
10. Phinney Ridge - 86.61%

Rossi
1. Madison Park - 39.29%
2. Briarcliff - 37.40%
3. Laurelhurst - 32.52%
4. Southeast Magnolia - 30.71%
5. Arbor Heights - 30.19%
6. Alki - 29.70%
7. North Beach/Blue Ridge - 29.53%
8. View Ridge - 29.15%
9. Windermere - 28.82%
10. Pike Market - 28.53%

King County Charter Amendment No. 2 - Homosexual Discrimination
Yes
1. Broadway - 92.81%
2. Stevens - 89.98%
3. Fremont - 89.90%
4. Minor - 89.71%
5. Eastlake - 88.47%
6. Wallingford - 88.26%
7. Phinney Ridge - 88.00%
8. Montlake - 87.58%
9. Madrona - 87.30%
10. West Woodland - 87.12%

No
1. Rainier View - 30.49%
2. Briarcliff - 27.45%
3. Arbor Heights - 27.35%
4. South Beacon Hill/Holly Park - 26.01%
5. South Delridge - 25.80%
6. Rainier Beach - 25.48%
7. Madison Park - 25.37%
8. Brighton - 24.47%
9. South Park - 24.15%
10. Highland Park - 23.94%

Interestingly, the two blackest Seattle neighborhoods (~40%), the Central District districts of Mann and Minor, were strongly for this (86.7% and 89.7%, respectively).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: NOVA Green on December 05, 2008, 10:43:05 PM
Seattle neighborhood results:

Obama
1. Mann (Central District 23rd Ave/MLK) - 96.05%
2. Madrona - 93.76%
3. Minor (Central District 12th/23rd) - 93.73%
4. Broadway - 93.65%
5. Stevens (Cap Hill 15th Ave) - 92.37%
6. Leschi - 91.50%
7. Fremont - 90.73%
8. Mt. Baker - 90.35%
9. Atlantic - 90.24%
10. Phinney Ridge - 89.96%
...
84. Alki - 76.24%
85. Southeast Magnolia - 76.11%
86. Arbor Heights - 74.57%
87. Madison Park - 71.09%
88. Briarcliff - 70.39%

McCain
1. Briarcliff - 28.70%
2. Madison Park - 27.89%
3. Arbor Heights - 23.98%
4. Southeast Magnolia - 22.73%
5. Alki - 22.34%
6. Laurelhurst - 22.50%
7. North Beach/Blue Ridge - 21.92%
8. Fauntleroy - 21.19%
9. View Ridge - 21.08%
10. Pike Market - 20.90%
...
84. Stevens - 6.58%
85. Madrona - 5.38%
86. Minor - 4.74%
87. Broadway - 4.72%
88. Mann - 2.68%

Gregoire
1. Mann - 93.11%
2. Minor - 91.96%
3. Broadway - 91.91%
4. Stevens - 89.06%
5. Madrona - 88.71%
6. Atlantic - 88.37%
7. Columbia City - 87.72%
8. Wallingford - 86.78%
9. Leschi - 86.75%
10. Phinney Ridge - 86.61%

Rossi
1. Madison Park - 39.29%
2. Briarcliff - 37.40%
3. Laurelhurst - 32.52%
4. Southeast Magnolia - 30.71%
5. Arbor Heights - 30.19%
6. Alki - 29.70%
7. North Beach/Blue Ridge - 29.53%
8. View Ridge - 29.15%
9. Windermere - 28.82%
10. Pike Market - 28.53%

King County Charter Amendment No. 2 - Homosexual Discrimination
Yes
1. Broadway - 92.81%
2. Stevens - 89.98%
3. Fremont - 89.90%
4. Minor - 89.71%
5. Eastlake - 88.47%
6. Wallingford - 88.26%
7. Phinney Ridge - 88.00%
8. Montlake - 87.58%
9. Madrona - 87.30%
10. West Woodland - 87.12%

No
1. Rainier View - 30.49%
2. Briarcliff - 27.45%
3. Arbor Heights - 27.35%
4. South Beacon Hill/Holly Park - 26.01%
5. South Delridge - 25.80%
6. Rainier Beach - 25.48%
7. Madison Park - 25.37%
8. Brighton - 24.47%
9. South Park - 24.15%
10. Highland Park - 23.94%

Interestingly, the two blackest Seattle neighborhoods (~40%), the Central District districts of Mann and Minor, were strongly for this (86.7% and 89.7%, respectively).

Request: Seward Park.... I want to see how the Orthodox Jewish population in this 'hood went. My sister lives in the neighborhood and I haven't bothered to check King Co. precinct results.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 05, 2008, 10:46:11 PM
Seattle neighborhood results:

Obama
1. Mann (Central District 23rd Ave/MLK) - 96.05%
2. Madrona - 93.76%
3. Minor (Central District 12th/23rd) - 93.73%
4. Broadway - 93.65%
5. Stevens (Cap Hill 15th Ave) - 92.37%
6. Leschi - 91.50%
7. Fremont - 90.73%
8. Mt. Baker - 90.35%
9. Atlantic - 90.24%
10. Phinney Ridge - 89.96%
...
84. Alki - 76.24%
85. Southeast Magnolia - 76.11%
86. Arbor Heights - 74.57%
87. Madison Park - 71.09%
88. Briarcliff - 70.39%

McCain
1. Briarcliff - 28.70%
2. Madison Park - 27.89%
3. Arbor Heights - 23.98%
4. Southeast Magnolia - 22.73%
5. Alki - 22.34%
6. Laurelhurst - 22.50%
7. North Beach/Blue Ridge - 21.92%
8. Fauntleroy - 21.19%
9. View Ridge - 21.08%
10. Pike Market - 20.90%
...
84. Stevens - 6.58%
85. Madrona - 5.38%
86. Minor - 4.74%
87. Broadway - 4.72%
88. Mann - 2.68%

Gregoire
1. Mann - 93.11%
2. Minor - 91.96%
3. Broadway - 91.91%
4. Stevens - 89.06%
5. Madrona - 88.71%
6. Atlantic - 88.37%
7. Columbia City - 87.72%
8. Wallingford - 86.78%
9. Leschi - 86.75%
10. Phinney Ridge - 86.61%

Rossi
1. Madison Park - 39.29%
2. Briarcliff - 37.40%
3. Laurelhurst - 32.52%
4. Southeast Magnolia - 30.71%
5. Arbor Heights - 30.19%
6. Alki - 29.70%
7. North Beach/Blue Ridge - 29.53%
8. View Ridge - 29.15%
9. Windermere - 28.82%
10. Pike Market - 28.53%

King County Charter Amendment No. 2 - Homosexual Discrimination
Yes
1. Broadway - 92.81%
2. Stevens - 89.98%
3. Fremont - 89.90%
4. Minor - 89.71%
5. Eastlake - 88.47%
6. Wallingford - 88.26%
7. Phinney Ridge - 88.00%
8. Montlake - 87.58%
9. Madrona - 87.30%
10. West Woodland - 87.12%

No
1. Rainier View - 30.49%
2. Briarcliff - 27.45%
3. Arbor Heights - 27.35%
4. South Beacon Hill/Holly Park - 26.01%
5. South Delridge - 25.80%
6. Rainier Beach - 25.48%
7. Madison Park - 25.37%
8. Brighton - 24.47%
9. South Park - 24.15%
10. Highland Park - 23.94%

Interestingly, the two blackest Seattle neighborhoods (~40%), the Central District districts of Mann and Minor, were strongly for this (86.7% and 89.7%, respectively).

Request: Seward Park.... I want to see how the Orthodox Jewish population in this 'hood went. My sister lives in the neighborhood and I haven't bothered to check King Co. precinct results.

Seward Park was 83.28% Obama, 15.62% McCain.  It contains a few diverse areas, and then a mix of whitebread and Ortho Jews.  Obama did very well there, probably thanks to the whitebread mostly.  Hard to tell though.  McCain didn't even break 10% on Millionaire's Row.  The rich swung in the city, too.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on December 07, 2008, 10:44:04 PM
This makes me wonder how badly Huckabee would have done on the Eastside...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: NOVA Green on December 08, 2008, 08:42:51 PM
WA_2008_President.xls (http://www.goldengiven.net/junk/WA_2008_President.xls) (3.7 MB)

An easily-understood Excel file that contains results to county, congressional, legislative, municipal and precinct levels.  Enjoy.

Awesome work Alcon!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 10, 2008, 06:26:25 AM
What does "split" mean on the Municipality tab? I thought it was cities that were in two counties, but you've got cities that I know aren't (Steilacoom for example).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 10, 2008, 11:20:33 AM
What does "split" mean on the Municipality tab? I thought it was cities that were in two counties, but you've got cities that I know aren't (Steilacoom for example).

They also include some unincorporated territory.  A few counties (Clark, Douglas, Pend Oreille and some Pierce) do this.  Annoying and pointless.  One precinct in Clark is split between Camas and Washougal, listed as "Camas city/Washougal city."


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 11, 2008, 01:13:27 AM
How do they administer municipal elections when parts of the precinct are outside the city limits?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 11, 2008, 01:29:12 AM
How do they administer municipal elections when parts of the precinct are outside the city limits?

Hmm, kind of like how I don't understand the Transit Area borders... Half of my precinct is in it (and got to vote on Prop 1) while the other half isn't.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 11, 2008, 02:01:30 AM
How do they administer municipal elections when parts of the precinct are outside the city limits?

Precinct splits:  127.01, 127.02, 127.03, etc.  That's why we do ballot codes in Pierce County instead of precinct codes on ballots.  At least I think so, never seen a polling place with precincts split between districts.

Now, in light of that, as to why they have those four-vote precincts or whatever...I have no idea.  Wish I knew.  But at least they shouldn't split towns when they do.  That's annoying and stupid.  I don't care about sewer districts.

(Oh, and I just got an email that someone suggested the spreadsheet for the Swing State Project's CD collection efforts.  Pretty cool.  Wonder if that was someone here?  :))


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 11, 2008, 02:47:18 AM
I think most of the very small precincts are just sort of a side effect of having so many different jurisdictions. There's so many different boundary levels that the only way to make the whole puzzle work is making these incredibly small precincts in some parts.

Or maybe not because apparently they split precincts up sometimes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 11, 2008, 01:29:14 PM
President
Highest Percentage of Vote
Obama
1. Seattle - 84.67%
2. Port Townsend - 80.49%
3. Nespelem - 79.37%
4. Index - 79.21%
5. Mabton - 78.79%
6. Bainbridge Island - 77.79%
7. Langley - 77.74%
8. Wapato - 75.32%
9. Toppenish - 75.08%
10. Lake Forest Park - 74.32%

McCain
1. Lamont* - 82.24%
2. Hartline - 74.70%
3. Starbuck - 74.68%
4. Mansfield - 73.41%
5. St. John* - 73.22%
6. LaCrosse* - 72.59%
7. Washtucna - 72.41%
8. Waverly - 72.41%
9. Lind - 72.09%
10. Lynden - 71.47%

Lowest Percentage of Vote
Obama
1. Lamont* - 14.02%
2. Starbuck - 22.78%
3. St. John* - 24.05%
4. Waverly - 24.14%
5. Mansfield - 24.28%
6. LaCrosse* - 24.61%
7. Hartline - 25.30%
8. Washtucna - 25.86%
9. Lind - 26.36%
10. Krupp - 26.67%

McCain
1. Seattle - 13.87%
2. Nespelem - 15.87%
3. Port Townsend - 17.55%
4. Index - 19.80%
5. Langley - 20.25%
6. Mabton - 20.54%
7. Bainbridge Island - 20.78%
8. Wapato - 22.63%
9. Toppenish - 23.65%
10. Lake Forest Park - 24.42%

Bigget Vote Margin
Obama
1. Seattle - +233,680
2. Tacoma - +27,695
3. Bellingham - +18,989
4. Bellevue - +16,693
5. Shoreline - +13,711
6. Olympia - +12,344
7. Vancouver - +12,000**
8. Spokane - +11,319
9. Renton - +11,277
10. Everett - +10,648

McCain
1. Kennewick - +6,961
2. Richland - +4,959
3. Lynden - +2,909
4. Spokane Valley - +2,859
5. West Richland - +1,886
6. Pasco - +1,562
7. Moses Lake - +1,359
8. Oak Harbor - +1,000
9. Yakima - +998
10. Wenatchee - +897

Bigget Percent Margin
Obama
1. Seattle - +70.80%
2. Nespelem - +63.49%
3. Port Townsend - +62.94%
4. Index - +59.41%
5. Mabton - +58.25%
6. Langley - +57.48%
7. Bainbridge Island - +57.01%
8. Wapato - +52.69%
9. Toppenish - +51.43%
10. Lake Forest Park - +51.43%

McCain
1. Lamont* - +68.22%
2. Starbuck - +51.90%
3. Hartline - +49.40%
4. St. John* - +49.17%
5. Mansfield - +49.13%
6. Waverly - +48.28%
7. LaCrosse* - +47.98%
8. Washtucna - +46.55%
9. Lind - +45.74%
10. Lynden - +44.74%

Biggest Swing
Obama
1. Riverside - +42.37%
2. Rock Island - +34.66%
3. Quincy - +29.97%
4. Creston - +29.80%
5. Hatton - +29.08%
6. Warden - +27.39%
7. Winlock - +26.66%
8. North Bonneville - +26.46%
9. George - +26.44%
10. Toppenish - +26.05%

McCain
1. Starbuck - +31.90%
2. Malden* - +15.41%
3. Krupp - +14.19%
4. Hartline - +13.03%
5. Wilkeson - +6.75%
6. Sprague - +5.91%
7. Metaline Falls* - +4.46%
8. Vader - +4.38%
9. Ilwaco - +3.83%
10. Lind - +2.63%

Governor
Highest Percentage of Vote
Gregoire
1. Nespelem - 92.06%
2. Seattle - 80.21%
3. Port Townsend - 78.85%
4. Langley - 76.20%
5. Index - 73.27%
6. Olympia - 72.45%
7. Bainbridge Island - 72.21%
8. Mabton - 71.38%
9. Bellingham - 69.82%
10. Lake Forest Park - 68.64%

Rossi
1. Lamont* - 80.95%
2. LaCrosse* - 79.81%
3. Mansfield - 77.91%
4. Lynden - 76.57%
5. Endicott* - 75.37%
6. Napavine - 74.82%
7. Prescott - 74.79%
8. Waverly - 74.14%
9. St. John* - 73.60%
10. West Richland - 73.56%

Bigget Margin
Gregoire
1. Seattle - +196,007
2. Tacoma - +20,132
3. Bellingham - +15,305
4. Olympia - +11,298
5. Shoreline - +10,261
6. Spokane - +7,615
7. Vancouver - +7,100**
8. Bellevue - +6,974
9. Bainbridge Island - +6,908
10. Renton - +6,704

Rossi
1. Kennewick - +10,328
2. Richland - +8,609
3. Yakima - +4,193
4. Spokane Valley - +3,512
5. Lynden - +3,437
6. Pasco - +3,320
7. West Richland - +2,622
8. Wenatchee - +2,381
9. Moses Lake - +1,720
10. Sammamish - +1,289

---

* - Split.
** - Estimated, due to splits.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 11, 2008, 01:56:46 PM
Among places that cast 1,000 or more votes:

Highest Percentage of Vote
Obama
1. Seattle - 84.67%
2. Port Townsend - 80.49%
3. Bainbridge Island - 77.79%
4. Toppenish - 75.08%
5. Lake Forest Park - 74.32%
6. Shoreline - 73.24%
7. Bellingham - 73.22%
8. Olympia - 73.21%
9. Tukwila - 71.62%
10. Mountlake Terrace - 68.95%

McCain
1. Lynden - 71.47%
2. West Richland - 65.83%
3. Colfax - 64.33%
4. Kennewick - 62.22%
5. Dayton - 61.35%
6. Moses Lake - 59.69%
7. Liberty Lake - 59.64%
8. Ephrata - 59.58%
9. Richland - 59.53%
10. Selah - 59.02%

Lowest Percentage of Vote
Obama
1. Lynden - 26.73%
2. West Richland - 32.11%
3. Colfax - 33.56%
4. Kennewick - 36.14%
5. Dayton - 36.50%
6. Moses Lake - 37.78%
7. Ephrata - 38.13%
8. Liberty Lake - 38.56%
9. Richland - 38.70%
10. Deer Park - 38.79%

McCain
1. Seattle - 13.87%
2. Port Townsend - 17.55%
3. Bainbridge Island - 20.78%
4. Toppenish - 23.65%
5. Lake Forest Park - 24.42%
6. Olympia - 24.64%
7. Bellingham - 24.85%
8. Shoreline - 25.18%
9. Tukwila - 26.51%
10. Mountlake Terrace - 29.11%

Biggest Percent Margin
Obama
1. Seattle - +70.80%
2. Port Townsend - +62.94%
3. Bainbridge Island - +57.01%
4. Toppenish - +51.43%
5. Lake Forest Park - +49.90%
6. Olympia - +48.58%
7. Bellingham - +48.36%
8. Shoreline - +48.06%
9. Tukwila - +45.11%
10. Mountlake Terrace - +39.84%

McCain
1. Lynden - +44.74%
2. West Richland - +33.72%
3. Colfax - +30.77%
4. Dayton - +24.85%
5. Moses Lake - +21.91%
6. Ephrata - +21.45%
7. Liberty Lake - +21.08%
8. Richland - +20.82%
9. Selah - +20.22%
10. College Place - +19.75%

Biggest Swing
Obama
1. Quincy - +29.97%
2. Toppenish - +26.05%
3. Airway Heights - +24.56%
4. Forks - +23.77%
5. Sammamish - +20.87%
6. White Salmon - +20.86%
7. Cashmere - +18.07%
8. Cheney - +18.06%
9. Oak Harbor - +17.95%
10. Mill Creek - +17.79%

McCain
1. Sequim - -2.97%
2. Kalama - -3.40%
3. Ridgefield - -3.45%
4. Kelso - -3.81%
5. Black Diamond - -4.80%
6. Ocean Shores - -4.91%
7. Edgewood - -4.97%
8. Sumner - -5.73%
9. Milton - -5.81%
10. Auburn - -5.98%

Note: Those are all minus signs, that is, every municipality casting more than 1,000 votes swung to Obama.

Governor
Highest Percentage of Vote
Gregoire
1. Seattle - 80.21%
2. Port Townsend - 78.85%
3. Olympia - 72.45%
4. Bainbridge Island - 72.21%
5. Bellingham - 69.82%
6. Lake Forest Park - 68.64%
7. Tukwila - 68.60%
8. Shoreline - 68.22%
9. Toppenish - 65.48%
10. Friday Harbor - 64.15%

Rossi
1. Lynden - 76.57%
2. West Richland - 73.56%
3. Kennewick - 69.42%
4. Richland - 68.17%
5. Colfax - 66.83%
6. Ephrata - 64.97%
7. Selah - 64.81%
8. Othello - 64.81%
9. Prosser - 64.79%
10. East Wenatchee - 64.20%**

---

** - Estimated due to splits.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 11, 2008, 03:11:46 PM
I want Governor swings!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 11, 2008, 03:54:21 PM
Whatcom would be so much cooler without Lynden. :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 11, 2008, 04:38:39 PM
In a an early Christmas miracle, Jason Osgood has dropped out of the King County Director of Elections race and thrown his support behind Sherril Huff (the current Director by appointment). No one else has filed and there's been no peep from the Roach camp or anyone else. Filing closes tomorrow afternoon.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Daniel Z on December 11, 2008, 07:17:45 PM
The results from the non-Dutch areas of Whatcom look good.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 11, 2008, 09:03:47 PM
Roach filed. Damn.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 12, 2008, 04:49:11 AM
Looking at Alcon's spreadsheet, is anyone else surprised by how well Gregoire did in the 5th CD and LD?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 12, 2008, 06:15:49 AM
Looking at Alcon's spreadsheet, is anyone else surprised by how well Gregoire did in the 5th CD and LD?

Eh, Rossi only narrowly won Spokane County--which has almost 450,000 people, I think---meaning it makes up a pretty good majority of the 5th congressional district. It's easy to forget how Spokane-dominated the 5th CD is because of its large land area. The rest of the district is pretty sparsely populated, save for Pullman and Walla Walla.

As for the 5th LD... maybe a little, but I do live here. :P The GOP implosion on the Eastside was going to reach this area eventually. Plus, the August primary was actually a decent indicator of how areas were going to vote in November.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 12, 2008, 06:42:17 PM
LOL - David Irons filed for Elections Director. So much for the Republicans winning.

Also some guy named Bill Anderson filed. Anyone have any idea who he is?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 12, 2008, 11:57:07 PM
LOL - David Irons filed for Elections Director. So much for the Republicans winning.

Also some guy named Bill Anderson filed. Anyone have any idea who he is?

I think it's the same Bill Anderson who posts on Sound Politics, and maybe the one who used to be on charter review board.  He also apparently lost a Maine Coon (http://www.flealess.org/lostpets/archives/washington/washington_2004.html).

Probably not an especially serious candidate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on December 13, 2008, 10:20:46 AM
I posted a link to your presidential spreadsheet over at SSP; they seem to like it. (http://swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4145)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 13, 2008, 05:47:10 PM
Two more candidates filed: Chris Clifford, a bitter community activist who is convinced that Sherril Huff is a fraudulent criminal, and Julie Kempf, who got fired from the job in 2002 and got in the race because "she was threatened by political opponents who didn’t want her to run."

This is a pretty easy decision for me. To quote Dwight Pelz:

Quote
“Sherril Huff isn’t the Democratic candidate in this race, she’s the competent candidate in this race.”


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 13, 2008, 05:50:34 PM
Stupid question: Doesn't Sherril Huff live in Bremerton?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 13, 2008, 05:56:32 PM
Stupid question: Doesn't Sherril Huff live in Bremerton?

She's renting a house in Seattle as of last week.

A little self-serving, but considering the alternative candidates...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 16, 2008, 04:02:40 AM
Ron Sims is allegedly being vetted for a DC job. Expect a free-for-all of monumental proportions if he leaves.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 16, 2008, 04:25:17 AM
Early prediction if King County Executive opens up: Larry Philips


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 18, 2008, 02:25:44 PM
48 hours since the last reply, we can't let that happen!

Franklin:

() (http://www.goldengiven.net/junk/maps/2008PREZ/franklin_new.png)

() (http://www.goldengiven.net/junk/maps/2008PREZ/franklin_old.png)

Obama improved enough to avoid the five R>90s Bush got in '04, inducing a 135-7 slaughter.  North Franklin is the most GOP part of the state.

I think I should be able to do Thurston today, too, which happily coincides with my getting ahold of a privacy-unprotected results file they accidentally made public.  Apparently when they put a "NOT PUBLIC!" tab in their Excel sheet, they were hoping we'd go on the honors system.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 18, 2008, 07:13:27 PM
Apparently when they put a "NOT PUBLIC!" tab in their Excel sheet, they were hoping we'd go on the honors system.

Morons


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Smid on December 18, 2008, 10:17:54 PM
Stupid question: Doesn't Sherril Huff live in Bremerton?

More importantly, doesn't MxPx come from Bremerton?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 18, 2008, 10:19:23 PM
Stupid question: Doesn't Sherril Huff live in Bremerton?

More importantly, doesn't MxPx come from Bremerton?

Are those really different questions?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on December 18, 2008, 11:10:54 PM
Apparently when they put a "NOT PUBLIC!" tab in their Excel sheet, they were hoping we'd go on the honors system.

Morons

Oh, I do love my county government. The moment you put a D next to your name is the moment you get elected.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 19, 2008, 12:42:32 AM
Apparently when they put a "NOT PUBLIC!" tab in their Excel sheet, they were hoping we'd go on the honors system.

Morons

Oh, I do love my county government. The moment you put a D next to your name is the moment you get elected.

Which is pretty weird, since Thurston seems to have a huge thing for well-liked incumbent state Republicans.  Must be all the government employees...

Then again once they get in it's real damn hard to get rid of them :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 19, 2008, 12:43:49 AM
What percent of Thurston County residents are state employees?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 19, 2008, 12:54:10 AM
What percent of Thurston County residents are state employees?

About a third are government employees of some sort (state being a much higher composition than in most counties), although obviously secondhand political information is probably better all-around there.

But McKenna broke 60% in a walk, and Sutherland carried it by 7%.  So it's a little more than Sam Reed having been County Auditor there before he became SoS.

I've never really understood it, it seems a pretty extreme effect relative to the number of state employees.  It also doesn't seem to always come up unless it's a well-known incumbent (McIntire +2).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: minionofmidas on December 21, 2008, 01:28:15 PM
Spent the last couple of hours salivating in front of this thread...

Where's the Grays Harbor map though? >:( ;)

Oh, and could you tell me how the Spokane Reservation votes? :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 21, 2008, 01:53:25 PM
Oh, and could you tell me how the Spokane Reservation votes? :)

Wellpinit was 80-19 Obama, up from 72-27 Kerry -- not one of the reservation areas where Obama declined, of which there were surprisingly many in WA (latent Clinton support?)

There's a lot more land that's on the rez, but that's really the only Indian precinct.  They (shock of shocks) don't vote much.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: minionofmidas on December 21, 2008, 02:13:10 PM
There's a lot more land that's on the rez, but that's really the only Indian precinct.  They (shock of shocks) don't vote much.
Shock!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: minionofmidas on December 21, 2008, 02:49:39 PM
What's with this Wilkeson place?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 21, 2008, 03:19:43 PM
:D Pierce County has secured itself as being the most analyzed county in the history of the Atlas.

Anyways, the massive Obama love on the bases still confuses me a bit. Did we ever check if something similar occurred on other bases around the country?

Also, what's the difference between Steilacoom and Steilacoom Heights? 451 and 452 vs. 453 and 464?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 21, 2008, 04:51:45 PM
Guest      01:47:28 pm     Printing the topic "Washington '08: What the hell just happened?".

We're famous!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 21, 2008, 10:54:46 PM
:D Pierce County has secured itself as being the most analyzed county in the history of the Atlas.

Anyways, the massive Obama love on the bases still confuses me a bit. Did we ever check if something similar occurred on other bases around the country?

Also, what's the difference between Steilacoom and Steilacoom Heights? 451 and 452 vs. 453 and 464?

I think (not at home) it's 451-3 vs. 464.  451-3 (IIRC) are Steilacoom city (split), 464 is totally unincorporated.  I had nowhere else to put it

The same sorts of swings happened at Fairchild in Spokane County, and Trident Naval Base near Bremerton (where the swing was something crazy, like nearly 30 points).  I get the impression it was pretty much universal.

I know essentially nothing about Wilkeson, maybe Meeker does, I've never been there.  It's by Carbonado (which barely swung Obama) and the two rural precincts around Wilkeson/Carbonado were both unchanged or barely McCain swings, I think.  Odd area (especially since Carbonado votes so drastically different from Wilkeson)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 21, 2008, 11:39:36 PM
I've never been to Wilkeson. Anything east of Bonney Lake is dead to me - even Orting is pushing it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 22, 2008, 03:00:54 AM
I've been to Bonney Lake, and that's in fact why it's dead to me

I just noticed now that Bremerton 109 is actually a military precinct too -- Jackson Park Naval Reservation, which houses family members stationed at Naval Base Kitsap.

Bush carried it 63%-36%; Obama won it 53%-43%, for an overall swing of 37.58%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: minionofmidas on December 22, 2008, 01:00:18 PM
Still no Grays Harbor map.

Oh come on. Do it for Kurt Cobain.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: minionofmidas on December 22, 2008, 02:11:08 PM
Thanks!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on December 27, 2008, 02:55:30 AM
So, Alcon, did you end up getting Thurston county?
;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 27, 2008, 03:02:19 AM
So, Alcon, did you end up getting Thurston county?
;)

Never sent it, and they're away for the holidays.

I just sent an email to bug a friend for it, we'll see.  Sorry about the delay.  I promise you'll get one in the end.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: minionofmidas on December 27, 2008, 09:01:13 AM
Re GH... the thing in the nw is a rez of course (what's it called again, Quinault?) but shouldn't there be a rez in the se corner as well (Chehalis)?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 27, 2008, 02:33:10 PM
Re GH... the thing in the nw is a rez of course (what's it called again, Quinault?) but shouldn't there be a rez in the se corner as well (Chehalis)?

Yeah, which means that the reservation there (a small one granted) has awful turnout, or the rural area around Oakville is quite conservative other than the Indians.  Probably a bit of both.  Blockhouse (the rural Oakville precinct) was Obama +3, while Oakville was only Obama +4.  In 2004, they were were Bush +16 and Bush +5, respectively.  But the rez area is only a few hundred, and the precinct is about 700.

I doubt they're unusually Republican for Indians or anything, I just think they don't make much of a dent in their precinct.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: minionofmidas on December 28, 2008, 10:30:02 AM
Wait... which one was Bush by 16?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 28, 2008, 02:36:07 PM

Blockhouse -> Bush +16 to Obama +3
Oakville city -> Bush +5 to Obama +4

Thurston shapefile from my friend is for 2004 (maybe I'll make a 2004 map!) and I'll have to re-contact the county Monday.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on December 29, 2008, 08:46:17 PM
wow. Obama won an impressively large amount of the rural vote. Can anyone guess where Evergreen is?
;)


Thanks Alcon.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 02, 2009, 03:31:08 AM
Well, this is one of my rare total and complete F-ups.  I've been including a massive portion of unincorporated Spokane County as the City of Spokane.

The corrected total for Spokane is:

2004 President: Kerry 50.6%, Bush 47.6% (so it did vote Kerry after all)
2008 President: Obama 56.3%, McCain 41.3%
2008 Governor: Gregoire 55.9%, Rossi 44.1%

The 2004 polling places being named stuff like "FD 4 Sta 44 - Newport Highway" and "Airway Heights Community Center" should have probably been a hint.  I apologize for sucking so much. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 03, 2009, 02:00:08 AM
Since no news is actually happening, random tinkering with returns from Washington state military bases.

In total, 4,230 ballots were cast in military base precincts, up from 4,204 in 2004.

Army
2004: 1,549 ballots; 59-40 Bush
2008: 1,802 ballots; 50-48 Obama
16% turnout increase, Obama swing 21.8%

Air Force
2004: 1,239 ballots; 75-23 Bush
2008: 1,057 ballots; 63-35 McCain
15% turnout decrease, Obama swing 24.0%

Navy
2004: 1,416 ballots; 74-25 Bush
2008: 1,371 ballots; 55-44 McCain
3% turnout decrease, Obama swing 38.1%

So, while McCain bled horribly among all sorts of military voters vs. Bush, his worst losses appear easily to be among Navy voters -- the very branch of service in which he and John Kerry served.  Hah.

Individual base information (2004 results in parentheses, turnout in brackets, Dem swing in red):

Fort Lewis AB (Tacoma): 50-48 Obama (40-59) [+16%] +21.8%

Fairchild AFB (Spokane): 65-34 McCain (21-77) [-10%] +26.0%
McChord AFB (Tacoma): 61-37 McCain (27-72) [-20%] +21.6%

Jackson Park NR (Bremerton): 53-43 Obama (36-63) [-4%] +37.6%
Trident NB (Silverdale): 58-41 McCain (23-76) [-5%] +34.4%
Whidbey NAB (Oak Harbor): 56-42 McCain (22-78) [-2%] +43.0%

OK, now someone think of news that is actually news


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 03, 2009, 03:14:55 AM
Washington State Legislature news!

Rep. Steve Hailey (R-Mesa) died last week. His death will trigger a special election this November (and an appointment sometime in the next few months). Democrats have no shot at the seat.

Rep. Bill Grant (D-Walla Walla) announced a while ago that he has terminal cancer. His condition is worse than the press is letting on, and he'll likely die within the next few months. The local Democratic Party will get to appoint any possible replacement, but I'm skeptical that the Democrats are going to be able to hold this seat with anybody other than Grant. "Skeptical" is probably the wrong word considering McCain won the district by 21 points and Rossi by 30. I'd probably be better off with "99.99999% certain." Grant is the only Democrat east of the Cascades who doesn't represent Spokane County.

Rep. Brendan Williams (D-Olympia) has joined AFSCME's lawsuit against Governor Gregoire relating to collective bargaining negotiations not included in the new state budget (apparently the unions would rather have their members fired than the remaining ones not get a 2.2% pay increase. Who knew?). Williams has been acting up more so than usual as of late. He's always been a thorn in the side of Speaker Frank Chopp (D-Seattle), particularly on the every contentious Homeowner's Bill of Rights, but the attention whoring is really getting out of hand. What's odd about this is that Williams announced earlier this year that he plans on retiring from the Legislature after his term ends in 2011. Why is he trying to increase his profile and liberal credentials when he's leaving? There's no place else for him to go besides House leadership - the Senate seat is secure (and leaving the House for a while wouldn't help him win it), there's no way in hell he'd beat Baird in a primary challenge nor would he be able to win it as an open seat, and the thought of him running for statewide office is even more laughable.

Rep. Mary Lou Dickerson (D-Seattle) has all but announced that she'll be running for King County Council this year. Dickerson probably won't resign from the Legislature until after she gets sworn in at her new job though, so don't expect a special election here.

Sen. Pam Roach (R-19th Century) is continuing her quest for the position of King County Director of Elections. One can only pray that she'll be spending less time in Olympia in order to campaign, and that she'll resign her Senate seat out of anger when she loses in February. Prayer, however, has not been successful in past attempts to rid the state government of Roach.

Do you feel better after reading this? You shouldn't - I just wasted five minutes of your life. Sucker.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 03, 2009, 03:21:35 AM
Aww, too bad about Grant.

Would've been interesting to see him as a statewide D candidate.

I'm sure the Democrats could find a good candidate for that seat. One that would at least have a chance come 2010. But they'll make the worst possible choice, of course.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: NOVA Green on January 03, 2009, 04:02:59 AM
Since no news is actually happening, random tinkering with returns from Washington state military bases.

In total, 4,230 ballots were cast in military base precincts, up from 4,204 in 2004.

Army
2004: 1,549 ballots; 59-40 Bush
2008: 1,802 ballots; 50-48 Obama
16% turnout increase, Obama swing 21.8%

Air Force
2004: 1,239 ballots; 75-23 Bush
2008: 1,057 ballots; 63-35 McCain
15% turnout decrease, Obama swing 24.0%

Navy
2004: 1,416 ballots; 74-25 Bush
2008: 1,371 ballots; 55-44 McCain
3% turnout decrease, Obama swing 38.1%

So, while McCain bled horribly among all sorts of military voters vs. Bush, his worst losses appear easily to be among Navy voters -- the very branch of service in which he and John Kerry served.  Hah.

Individual base information (2004 results in parentheses, turnout in brackets, Dem swing in red):

Fort Lewis AB (Tacoma): 50-48 Obama (40-59) [+16%] +21.8%

Fairchild AFB (Spokane): 65-34 McCain (21-77) [-10%] +26.0%
McChord AFB (Tacoma): 61-37 McCain (27-72) [-20%] +21.6%

Jackson Park NR (Bremerton): 53-43 Obama (36-63) [-4%] +37.6%
Trident NB (Silverdale): 58-41 McCain (23-76) [-5%] +34.4%
Whidbey NAB (Oak Harbor): 56-42 McCain (22-78) [-2%] +43.0%

OK, now someone think of news that is actually news

Thank you Alcon!

It doesn't surprise me too much that the Navy has swung the most, although I would be interested to see base precinct numbers from the Marines in Camp Pendleton and Fort Bragg between '04 and '08 to get a greater idea of the military swing between branches...

Any ideas of how to construct a more complete "base precinct" analysis? Just wondering if anyone else is covering precincts in other military communities or has access to data that others could filter through?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 03, 2009, 04:31:54 AM
Also of note is that both special elections in the East will occur in 2009, and that means they'll be dealing with the lower turnout/slightly more conservative off-year electorate.

I don't think it's ever been mentioned, but gadfly candidate Brad Klippert actually got elected to the State House this year. Silly Yakima.

And I also changed the thread title to reflect the times.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 03, 2009, 06:02:50 AM
Speak for yourself.  I got a $150 VISA giftcard for Christmas and I'm hiding it so the state legislature and axed WaMu employees can't get to it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 03, 2009, 06:53:03 AM
The Department of Revenue will happily take the $13.20 that is owed to them once you eventually spend it :D



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 03, 2009, 07:57:33 AM
Here is some news from Olympia: All the state workers are scared sh**tless!

As the new budget gets debated and is finally hammered out the state workers have gone almost into a frenzy. The number who will be laid off will be huge and until the budget is finalized no one is safe... I am just happy that my parents (both of whom work for the state) have other avenues of work available. But for Thurston county as a whole 2009 will very likely be a very bad year.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: minionofmidas on January 03, 2009, 08:50:27 AM
Since no news is actually happening, random tinkering with returns from Washington state military bases.

In total, 4,230 ballots were cast in military base precincts, up from 4,204 in 2004.

Army
2004: 1,549 ballots; 59-40 Bush
2008: 1,802 ballots; 50-48 Obama
16% turnout increase, Obama swing 21.8%

Air Force
2004: 1,239 ballots; 75-23 Bush
2008: 1,057 ballots; 63-35 McCain
15% turnout decrease, Obama swing 24.0%

Navy
2004: 1,416 ballots; 74-25 Bush
2008: 1,371 ballots; 55-44 McCain
3% turnout decrease, Obama swing 38.1%

So, while McCain bled horribly among all sorts of military voters vs. Bush, his worst losses appear easily to be among Navy voters -- the very branch of service in which he and John Kerry served.  Hah.

Individual base information (2004 results in parentheses, turnout in brackets, Dem swing in red):

Fort Lewis AB (Tacoma): 50-48 Obama (40-59) [+16%] +21.8%

Fairchild AFB (Spokane): 65-34 McCain (21-77) [-10%] +26.0%
McChord AFB (Tacoma): 61-37 McCain (27-72) [-20%] +21.6%

Jackson Park NR (Bremerton): 53-43 Obama (36-63) [-4%] +37.6%
Trident NB (Silverdale): 58-41 McCain (23-76) [-5%] +34.4%
Whidbey NAB (Oak Harbor): 56-42 McCain (22-78) [-2%] +43.0%

OK, now someone think of news that is actually news

For comparison: Alaska bases.

First the big bases:
Fort Wainwright (army, just outside of Fairbanks)
2004 1244 votes cast, 817 R, 411 D
2008 522 votes cast, 338 R, 176 D
Swing (just for lolz given the change in turnout/postal ballot utilitation) 1.6 to D

Fort Richardson (army, just outside of, and technically within, Anchorage)
2004 821 votes cast, 517 R, 295 D
2008 411 votes cast, 281 R, 123 D
Swing 9.0 to R (lol)

Eielson (Air Force, a little further outside of Fairbanks)
2004 1262 votes cast, 1058 R, 190 D
2008 641 votes cast, 497 R, 137 D
Swing 12.6 to D

Elmendorf (right next door to Fort Richardson)
2004 1106 votes cast, 897 R, 201 D
2008 1340 votes cast (what happened?), 990 R, 329 D
Swing 13.6 to D

now the tiny ones
Fort Greely (specialist army installation for arctic conditions training - it's at one of the coldest locations in the entire US. Semi-sorta-closed down. A little further out of Fairbanks than Eielson. Seems to be included in Delta Junction precinct, for which results below. Note that bulk of precinct population is not on-base.)
2004 348 votes cast, 278 R, 54 D
2008 348 votes cast, 286 R, 54 D
Swing 2.3 to R

Clear (Air Force. Missile launch site, really. Also near Fairbanks but towards the southwest rather than southeast. Precinct also called Clear, but includes territory outside of base. Not sure how many residents outside the base it includes, or even whether there are any - I think there are some, though.)
2004 89 votes cast, 59 R, 25 D
2008 81 votes cast, 59 R, 17 D
Swing 13.7 to R

Eareckson (Air Force. Not a separate base anymore, but an outlying bit of Eielson, and the last remaining military installation in the Aleutians. A radar station, really, with 27 residents as of Census 2000. Identical to Shemya Island. Included in Aleutians #1 precinct, whose polling booth is on Atka Island 12 degrees of latitude to the east. Obviously then, anybody interested in voting actually votes by mail.)
2004 32 votes cast, 16 R, 14 D
2008 44 votes cast, 22 D, 21 R
Swing 8.5 to D.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 05, 2009, 12:58:43 AM
Bill Grant died yesterday morning.  RIP, by all accounts a good man.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 05, 2009, 01:12:15 AM
Very sad news. Grant has been a leader in the Legislature for more than two decades.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 05, 2009, 10:29:00 PM
If these rumors about Gregoire and the Commerce Secretary turn out to be true then I will seriously consider killing myself out of disgust and depression.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 05, 2009, 10:32:00 PM
Stranger interview with Gregoire spokeswoman:

Quote
Q: Is Governor Gregoire going to be Obama's nominee for Commerce Secretary?

A: “We’re not able to speak to that so we’ll do a release in the morning.”

Q: Where is she?

A: “She’s out of state.”

Q: Is she in the country?

A: "I’m not allowed to say.”

Q: Is she going to continue as Governor of Washington State?

A: "I’m not allowed to say.”

WHYYY!?!?!?! >:(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 05, 2009, 10:35:12 PM
She would be an odd choice for Commerce Secretary...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 05, 2009, 10:37:27 PM
The other position she might be pursuing is Number 2 at the Justice Department or something.

For the record, Lt. Governor Brad Owen does not have a bachelor's degree.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 05, 2009, 10:38:52 PM
I've always had a feeling Owen has just been holding on to that seat for as long as possible and hoping that something would eventually happen. Much easier than getting directly elected, I suppose...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 05, 2009, 10:47:30 PM
but Owen is not very... intelligent.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 05, 2009, 10:49:15 PM
The whole DC trip could just be to announce the stimulus for state budgets that she's been trying to get. Doesn't fully explain why she'd be so secretive and why her staff wouldn't confirm that she'd still be Governor. Maybe just to build up hype.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 05, 2009, 11:01:27 PM
August 2009 Primary results:

Rossi: 26%
McKenna: 23%
Sonntag: 21%
Inslee: 17%
Owen: 14%

Top-two! Top-two!

I need alcohol...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on January 05, 2009, 11:11:44 PM
August 2009 Primary results:

Rossi: 26%
McKenna: 23%
Sonntag: 21%
Inslee: 17%
Owen: 14%

Top-two! Top-two!

I need alcohol...

Well, at least Rossi would lose in a landslide...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 05, 2009, 11:13:34 PM
Actually, thinking about it a bit more, I suspect Owen would choose to just run for Lt. Governor again. Unless this has been some sort of secret desire of his for a while. I've never really gotten that impression though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Daniel Z on January 05, 2009, 11:17:00 PM
The next Dixie Lee?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 05, 2009, 11:18:03 PM
August 2009 Primary results:

Rossi: 26%
McKenna: 23%
Sonntag: 21%
Inslee: 17%
Owen: 14%

Top-two! Top-two!

I need alcohol...

49% Republican in a primary? Really? I doubt that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 05, 2009, 11:19:47 PM
August 2009 Primary results:

Rossi: 26%
McKenna: 23%
Sonntag: 21%
Inslee: 17%
Owen: 14%

Top-two! Top-two!

I need alcohol...

49% Republican in a primary? Really? I doubt that.


Perhaps not, but throw in one or two more Democrats who draw 3 or 4% of the vote...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 06, 2009, 12:31:59 AM
Atlantic says it's not true:

Quote
Washington State political blogs are buzzing about a rumor that Gov. Christine Gregoire is headed to Washington to replace Bill Richardson as Barack Obama's Secretary of Commerce.

I'm not sure why Gregoire is going to Washington, but Obama aides say Gregoire is not a candidate for commerce.

This rumor is: FALSE.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 06, 2009, 12:38:46 AM
Dwight Pelz also says that she isn't headed to Commerce.

I'm 90% sure at this point it's something about the stimulus.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 06, 2009, 01:48:39 AM
This was a pretty brilliant media roll out by Gregoire's people. Every local blog and newspaper site has been buzzing with this, the local newscasts and radio broadcasts are leading with it, and it'll get stories in Tuesday's and Wednesday's paper. Not to mention the limited national attention it's been getting as well.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 06, 2009, 02:18:59 AM
I feel like it is going to be the release of the stimulus package tied to the viaduct as part of the infrastructure piece of the "new", new deal.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on January 06, 2009, 03:51:00 AM
I feel like it is going to be the release of the stimulus package tied to the viaduct as part of the infrastructure piece of the "new", new deal.

I suspect this to be the case as well.  Gregoire, Nickels and Sims delayed their decision AGAIN on the Alaska Way Viaduct until early 2009, which makes me speculate they are holding out for federal funding.  This is especially possible since Patty Murray chairs the Appropriations subcommittee funding the Dept. of Transportation.  Perhaps she and President-elect Obama will deliver manna from heaven for the viaduct.

After the Democrats won back the Congress in 2006, Mayor Nickels asked Sen. Murray for $10 BILLION dollars for the viaduct ($1 billion per year for 10 years).  LOL.  Not even Robert Byrd could get that kind of money -- at least not under President Bush.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 06, 2009, 10:34:48 AM
She's just going to Iraq. Nothing to see here, kids; move along...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 06, 2009, 10:39:54 AM
Why did she have to scare us like that? I was having Owenmares all night.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 06, 2009, 12:13:20 PM
Staff is saying the DOD wouldn't let them tell. I'm suspicious.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 07, 2009, 07:35:29 AM
I didn't realize that Adam Smith's opponent was this crazy:

Quote
The only issue left over from the election is Barack Obama's citizenship. He has not proved that he is eligible for President. Many court cases are pending and third parties are pushing the issue. The Republican Party should have required the proof before the Democratic Convention instead of leaving it to third parties.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 07, 2009, 03:52:25 PM
Postma is actually the sort of candidate that I'm surprised didn't cause a small embarrassment for the GOP.  He isn't super-crazy, but he's one of those people who is convinced that reality is about 3 points further to the political right than it actually is.

I've head that he called Smith "capable" in public and privately said he suspected Smith had "communist leanings," lol.

I think the WAGOP's criteria this year was mostly "non-Paulite."


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 10, 2009, 04:31:16 PM
Anyone else sad about the news regarding the P-I? A chill goes down my spine every time I remember the Blethen Times will be all that's left.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 11, 2009, 05:09:22 PM
So...Sergio Armijo's kid, and some Broadway shop owners, say that Mike Hecht cruises underaged male prostitutes down by Club Silverstone.

Discuss!

http://www.thenewstribune.com/front/topstories/story/591174.html

(I like how the article says that Antique Row is known for prostitution, as if it wasn't all Club Silverstone.  Hot, sexy WWI-era lamps, anyone?)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 11, 2009, 05:12:59 PM
Michael Hecht? Michael Hecht? What kind of a sick joke is this? I suppose that there's "something of the night about him"?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 12, 2009, 12:03:42 AM
LOL

I knew there was something weird about Hecht. Then again, the Armijo/Hecht grudge is the dirtiest feud in Pierce County...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 13, 2009, 02:36:53 PM
I love local politics


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 13, 2009, 08:18:25 PM
I was just thinking, for all the unending corruption in Tacoma, this is the only pure, consenting sex scandal I can remember.

weird.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 13, 2009, 09:58:51 PM
We're not too big on the sexual scandals. Or at least we're not public about them.

Anyways, the slime on the Pierce County Council has just picked Jan "Carbuncles" Shabro to be the next Auditor. I look forward to Katie Blinn crushing her this fall and delivering Shabro her third electoral defeat in four years. Maybe then she'll crawl back under her rock.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 14, 2009, 08:31:35 PM
We're not too big on the sexual scandals. Or at least we're not public about them.

Or maybe what they say (http://blogs.thenewstribune.com/gritcity/?title=tacoma_sex&more=1&c=1&tb=1&pb=1) really is true.

Anyways, the slime on the Pierce County Council has just picked Jan "Carbuncles" Shabro to be the next Auditor. I look forward to Katie Blinn crushing her this fall and delivering Shabro her third electoral defeat in four years. Maybe then she'll crawl back under her rock.

Is there any guarantee that she would crush Shabro, though?  Shabro has the name recognition...

Anyway, I thought this (http://blogs.thenewstribune.com/politics/2009/01/14/for_brian_sonntag_the_campaign_never_end) little anecdote sums up the next Gubernatorial race well (and, coincidentally, my opinions on Brian Sonntag and Brad Owen):

Quote
Sure, a swearing in ceremony is supposed to be serious. After all, most of these folks spent a lot of money to win these offices.

But Lt. Gov. Brad Owen felt the need to speed things along and lighten then up after Brian Sonntag took the oath for his fifth term as state Auditor. Unlike previous office holders who shook the hands of a few of the dignitaries on the rostrum in the House Chambers, Sonntag shook every single hand.

Owen started tapping his finger on the podium and then started humming the theme from Jeopardy. You know, the music that plays while contestants are trying to find the answer to Final Jeopardy.

Sonntag finally made it back to his seat and said in a stage whisper, "Hey, they're all voters."

As for Owen, I still most definitely don't regret voting for the Jewish lady who liked the gays.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 14, 2009, 08:35:41 PM
Sonntag '12

Too bad he's too old to serve as Governor for five terms :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 14, 2009, 10:28:10 PM
Is there any guarantee that she would crush Shabro, though?  Shabro has the name recognition...

Shabro has name recognition out in the East, but the voters of this county are pretty good at figuring out who is the most qualified candidate in non-partisan races.

Wait... they just elected Washam.

Hmmm.

Shit.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 15, 2009, 08:29:33 AM
McIntire, Dorn and Goldmark have all taken office now. Apparently Goldmark is the first CPL from east of the Cascades.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 15, 2009, 11:18:48 PM
McIntire, Dorn and Goldmark have all taken office now. Apparently Goldmark is the first CPL from east of the Cascades.

Politicians from Eastern Washington making it statewide is pretty rare. Eastern Washingtonian Democrats are generally pretty good candidates, though--I doubt Goldmark would have won if he were from King County (but otherwise the same), for example.

Pierce County Democrats are another winning strategy, based on my observations...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 16, 2009, 02:00:20 AM
Word on the street is that the Chairman of the Pierce County Republican Party is about to become Deputy Auditor.

gag


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 20, 2009, 01:20:04 AM
Voting has begun in the King County Elections Director race. If you're a person of faith, prayers for a non-Pam Roach outcome would be appreciated.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 21, 2009, 02:42:10 AM
Summary of Sam Reed's top-two reform:

Quote
Washington Secretary of State Sam Reed has written a proposed bill that clarifies some problems with the existing “top-two” primary system. The bill defines a qualified major party to be a group that polled at least 1% for president in the last presidential election.

Existing law says a qualified major party is one that polled 5% for any statewide office at the last election in which a statewide office was on the ballot. That existing definition is no longer workable, however, because the “top-two” initiative passed by the voters in November 2004 says that parties don’t have nominees any longer, except for president. Under the existing law, there wouldn’t be any qualified major parties in Washington state after the U.S. Senate election in November 2010, because there would be no party nominees in that election.

The proposed bill also defines qualified minor party to be a group that submits a petition of 100 voters by the first Monday in March, asking that the group be recognized as a party.

Washington state primary and general election ballots, under the “top-two” system, give each candidate a chance to say which party he or she prefers. Assuming this proposed bill passes, candidates will not be able to say they prefer just any group; they can only say they prefer a qualified major party or a qualified minor party. In the 2008 elections, some candidates said they preferred “parties” that clearly aren’t organizations, such as the Salmon Yoga Party or the GOP Party.

One might wonder what difference it makes for a group to be a qualified major party. The answer is that qualified major parties get their own presidential primary, and they are permitted to elect party officers in the September primary. Also their presidential nominee is put on the November ballot automatically with no petition needed.

Sounds good to me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 21, 2009, 02:50:10 AM
Is there any chance Huff could lose this election? As far as I can tell there is one major Democratic candidate and two Republican (not to mention this is a very Democratic county).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 21, 2009, 02:53:46 AM
I'm pretty sure she'll win, but then again I thought Dale Washam would get something like 10% of the vote down here. Non-partisan races in this state can get a little weird.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 24, 2009, 05:09:18 AM
http://www.spokesman.com/blogs/olympia/2009/jan/22/lisa-brown-early-contender-2012-governors-race/

Lisa Brown is thinking of running for Governor, eh...

ohhh, there are so many Democrats I like who might run for Governor in 2012... :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 27, 2009, 02:33:12 AM
I'd be surprised if Brown runs... she's Queen of the Senate for the foreseeable future.

Two bits:

Larry Phillips (D) has announced his intention to run for King County Executive this fall (or should Sims take an Administration job sometime soon as is rumored). It's not 100% clear whether or not Phillips will stay in the race should Sims run again, but considering their less than warm past relationship I would be surprised if Phillips dropped out.

Also, turnout for the Director of Elections race is at 10.6% thus far. I have no idea what equivalent turnout is for any other election as King County doesn't post that, but there you have it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 27, 2009, 02:36:12 AM
Larry Phillips (D) has announced his intention to run for King County Executive this fall (or should Sims take an Administration job sometime soon as is rumored). It's not 100% clear whether or not Phillips will stay in the race should Sims run again, but considering their less than warm past relationship I would be surprised if Phillips dropped out.

Pretty much everyone who knows Larry Phillips is convinced that, if he doesn't run, it's not deference to Sims but a concession that he'd probably lose.  I think he'd make a race of it, though.

Also, turnout for the Director of Elections race is at 10.6% thus far. I have no idea what equivalent turnout is for any other election as King County doesn't post that, but there you have it.

Not good.  Off-year special election not-good.

Where are you getting that stat?  King County seems to have not even bothered to post it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 27, 2009, 02:39:27 AM
In Pam Roach news, someone noticed that she listed her brokering firm on her F-1 disclosure statement as "Les Schwab"

()

i'd believe it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 27, 2009, 02:40:45 AM
http://your.kingcounty.gov/elections/abstats/

I knew it was low, but is it lower than one would suspect for a special election in the early part of an off-year?

And major LOL @ Roachie. The King County GOP is refusing to phonebank for her (they're just all excited about David Irons and his 18%!)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 27, 2009, 02:46:47 AM
http://your.kingcounty.gov/elections/abstats/

I knew it was low, but is it lower than one would suspect for a special election in the early part of an off-year?

It's off-year primary low.  Which is kind of pathetic, since the only places where there are more than issue on the ballot are, I think, Enumclaw and Fall City.  It's probably slightly above average for election in the early part of an off-year, but considering how high-profile this race was (relatively) it's kinda low.  It always confuses me how many people vote in most primaries but absolutely ignore even special elections that get media coverage...but early returns are never really that indicative in King County, for whatever reason.

I'm having trouble envisioning Huff not winning at this point.  Who are Democrats going to split off with, the lady who got arrested for lying about ballots and now posts on HorsesAss?

edit: Oh yeah, the enumclaw/fall city thing is on what you linked.  heh.  I should really get eight hours of sleep one of these days.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 27, 2009, 02:54:36 AM
I envision it going down something like this:

Huff: 40%
Irons: 25%
Assorted crazies: 20%
Roach: 15%

I might be overestimating crazy potential...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 27, 2009, 04:09:37 AM
Did Toby Nixon endorse Kempf? My opinion of him would drop rather significantly if so.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 27, 2009, 04:18:26 AM
Did Toby Nixon endorse Kempf? My opinion of him would drop rather significantly if so.

He kind of double-endorsed Kempf and Irons, I think.

I don't really know much about the Kempf story.  I didn't read into that much micro-drama.  I just know that she was arrested for lying about late absentees, claimed she never did, and the arrest was eventually kind of dismissed as an overreaction.

I wish there was some kind of King County 2004: The Novel online to fill me in on what I ignored at the time

But I don't see why a Democrat (which she obviously is), or a non-partisan, would vote for her over Huff or Irons


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 28, 2009, 11:06:57 PM
Turnout is going to be <30% at this rate...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 01, 2009, 02:09:58 AM
I was just toying around with the elections archives on Sam Reed's website and noticed something odd. Chris Hurst (D), the current member from the 31st District, Position 2, was elected to the Legislature in 2006. Prior to that he had been elected to the Legislature in 1998 and 2000, each time receiving about 55% of the vote. He also narrowly lost a race in 1996 to the man he beat in 1998.

Then in 2002, Jan Shabro (R) (past County Councilmember and current County Auditor) ran for his seat. She was unopposed in both the primary and the general.

So not only did Shabro win an open seat without any challengers, the Republicans picked-up an open seat without any Democratic challengers. Does anybody remember anything about the circumstances here? It just seems so incredibly bizarre.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 01, 2009, 02:17:25 AM
I was just toying around with the elections archives on Sam Reed's website and noticed something odd. Chris Hurst (D), the current member from the 31st District, Position 2, was elected to the Legislature in 2006. Prior to that he had been elected to the Legislature in 1998 and 2000, each time receiving about 55% of the vote. He also narrowly lost a race in 1996 to the man he beat in 1998.

Then in 2002, Jan Shabro (R) (past County Councilmember and current County Auditor) ran for his seat. She was unopposed in both the primary and the general.

So not only did Shabro win an open seat without any challengers, the Republicans picked-up an open seat without any Democratic challengers. Does anybody remember anything about the circumstances here? It just seems so incredibly bizarre.

Shabro pulled out at the last moment and the Democrats couldn't find a viable replacement.  I don't think there was much of a story behind it, but I don't remember why Hurst pulled out.  I'm not sure we ever found out the real reason.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 01, 2009, 03:51:31 AM
News Tribune, October 2002:

Quote
Democrats took a painful hit in the 31st Legislative District before this fall's campaigns even started.

Chris Hurst, the two-term Black Diamond Democrat in the district's Position 2 seat, decided not to run again. Despite the razor-thin margin between parties in the Legislature, Democrats couldn't come up with another candidate. That means Pierce County Councilwoman Jan Shabro, a Republican, wins by showing up.

So we just sucked really hard. How pathetic.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 01, 2009, 04:05:38 AM
yeah, I meant Hurst and not Shabro :P

I think there was probably an interesting internal struggle going on there.  It's very rare that an open seat just comes up 100% empty like that.

Could Shabro have been that much of a shoo-in?  Weird district back around '96


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 01, 2009, 04:09:26 AM
Eh, you could be right. My understanding of the Pierce County Democratic Party at that time though is that it probably wasn't big enough for internal struggles... it was pretty terrible. I really wouldn't be surprised if we couldn't find someone willing to cough up the $400 filing fee.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 01, 2009, 04:17:12 AM
Eh, you could be right. My understanding of the Pierce County Democratic Party at that time though is that it probably wasn't big enough for internal struggles... it was pretty terrible. I really wouldn't be surprised if we couldn't find someone willing to cough up the $400 filing fee.

Except I think it was a more King County district back then.  Hurst has since moved from Black Diamond to Greenwater.  I don't know, though, maybe it was even intra-county problems.  I think they tended to avoid doing things at the LD level back then?

Way before my time :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 01, 2009, 04:25:17 AM
It's the same boundaries it has right now - were you just referring to the power base being more in King County?

The other weird thing is that the Tribune always went to Berendt for quotes in other articles about the race - never Jean Brooks (who was Pierce County Chair at the time) nor whomever was running the KC Dems at the time. Not only is it weird that the Tribune would think to go to the state party chair for a quote (they'd always go to Lawver these days), but stranger is that the State Party actually cared about a State Legislative race. These days they basically pretend as if they don't exist. Maybe it was a bigger priority back then because of the closeness of the balance of power.

But way before my time as well. Lots of different ways to speculate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 02, 2009, 04:38:57 PM
It's official: Sims is leaving.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 02, 2009, 06:18:55 PM
I was getting kind of tired of Sims, to be honest.

He's still 10x better than any Repuke, though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 03, 2009, 08:11:54 PM
Turnout was 17.0% as of yesterday.  At this rate, breaking 30% is a 50/50 proposition at best, and 33% would probably require a small miracle.  That's kind of pathetic turnout for a recognizable race.

Results in about five hours.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 03, 2009, 11:13:40 PM
15.5% turnout so far.  Even with institutional support, Irons is sucking.

Huff 44%
Assorted crazies 20%
Irons 19%
Roach 17%

Yeah, Huff wins.

In other riveting news, Fall City will probably have a parks district (59.3%), and the Enumclaw school levy is a nailbiter (51.6%).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 03, 2009, 11:33:02 PM
Sanity prevails. Turnout was pathetically terrible though.

Fall City will probably have a parks district (59.3%)

Definitely the highlight of my evening.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 03, 2009, 11:43:50 PM
This (http://blogs.thenewstribune.com/politics/2009/02/03/state_rep_tom_campbell_is_running_for_9t) is easily the most interesting thing to happen this evening:

Quote
We have just heard a DC rumor (through the Republicans) that Adam Smith is close to getting the appointment he wants, in the Defense Department or possibly State Dept., and that the appointment may happen as early as tomorrow. Tom Campbell is running, whether or not Adam Smith runs again -- but we're pretty sure he won't. Did you catch Smith today on MSNBC, being interviewed about the Middle East and commenting about Afghanistan? My best guess is that Smith wants to replace Michael G. Vickers, Ass't Sec. of Defense for Special Operations, Low-Intensity Conflict, and Assymetric Warfare. Vickers was in the CIA with Gates; he ran the Reagan-era Afghan operations and his character had a speaking role in Charlie Wilson's War. Smith's Armed Services Subcommittee has jurisdiction over this area, so Smith would be the perfect appointee -- unless part of Gates' price for staying on was keeping Vickers and others.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 04, 2009, 01:38:42 PM
No dice: http://blogs.thenewstribune.com/politics/2009/02/04/smith_isn_t_getting_obama_job_so_the_gam


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 06, 2009, 05:36:38 AM
Turnout up to a wonderful 22%. I never would've thought it could go this low with Vote-by-Mail. Anyways, I think the initial abstract is going to be posted on Friday.

There's a bill being heard in the House State Government Committee tomorrow that requires ballots to be received by 8 PM on Election Day. I suspect it's going to pass.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 06, 2009, 12:26:32 PM
Apparently I complained enough back in November that they're putting up an unofficial abstract :P Neat.  And the final is only two days after certification.

There's a bill being heard in the House State Government Committee tomorrow that requires ballots to be received by 8 PM on Election Day. I suspect it's going to pass.

Bleh, why?  I know Oregon has that law, but I don't mind stragglers.  They never determine elections really, and I'd prefer if any ballot competently submitted before polling closes were counted.

[Shrug]


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 07, 2009, 12:39:58 AM
I take that back about the absentee ballot bill - the County Auditor's Association came out against it today. Basically it's just Sam Reed and a few House Democrats in favor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 07, 2009, 12:55:13 AM
The King County abstract will actually be an LD/CD breakdown, and was apparently not released today anyway.  right.

I take that back about the absentee ballot bill - the County Auditor's Association came out against it today. Basically it's just Sam Reed and a few House Democrats in favor.

On what grounds?  Speedy count?  Whatever.  I mean, if anyone should support the bill, it should be someone like me.  I like quick returns.  But I'd much rather not nitpick voters into being disenfranchised.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 07, 2009, 01:09:59 AM
Yea, they basically just want to be able to count quicker. It would be nice but I don't particularly see a reason why it's necessary (especially when the trade-off is limiting even slightly the amount of people involved in the process).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 07, 2009, 01:13:31 AM
Yea, they basically just want to be able to count quicker. It would be nice but I don't particularly see a reason why it's necessary (especially when the trade-off is limiting even slightly the amount of people involved in the process).

Would I be a total prick if I pointed out that a lot of the affected ballots (percentage-wise) would be military, and proportionately more Republican in general?

I'm sure that's not the only thing going on, but the Democrats should drop dumb crap like this.  It's bad for p.r.

I do like how the parties alternate between obsession with enfranchisement and electoral integrity, depending on whatever :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 07, 2009, 01:16:53 AM
Yea, they basically just want to be able to count quicker. It would be nice but I don't particularly see a reason why it's necessary (especially when the trade-off is limiting even slightly the amount of people involved in the process).

Would I be a total prick if I pointed out that a lot of the affected ballots (percentage-wise) would be military, and proportionately more Republican in general?

I'm sure that's not the only thing going on, but the Democrats should drop dumb crap like this.  It's bad for p.r.

Well Sam Reed was the one who originally proposed it, so I think the Democrats have a pretty good counter if they're accused of something like that.

They also warmly received the Internet voting bill today, something which would bring more military voters than before. Only Osgood and his crowd opposed that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on February 07, 2009, 01:27:02 AM
15.5% turnout so far.  Even with institutional support, Irons is sucking.

Huff 44%
Assorted crazies 20%
Irons 19%
Roach 17%

Yeah, Huff wins.

In other riveting news, Fall City will probably have a parks district (59.3%), and the Enumclaw school levy is a nailbiter (51.6%).

Shouldn't Roach go under assorted crazies?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 11, 2009, 04:28:40 AM
I learned today that there's a State Representative from East Wenatchee who is a fervent Ron Paul supporter.

A little frightening that those types actually hold public office...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 14, 2009, 01:42:14 AM
Has Randy Dorn always been crazy or are these shower stories a new development?

Quote
“When the hot water starts going over my body,” he [Randy Dorn] says, “I start feeling a little better because we all want to get up and make a difference for kids. And then I start thinking about what I’m going to do the next four years and what you’re going to do with me!”


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 14, 2009, 03:24:47 PM
That's a little... odd.

While there's very little in terms of elections going on till August (although I for one am closely watching the Vashon Island School Levy. Will they build a new track? Find out March 10th!), the Legislature is amusing enough until April. After that we're in real trouble.

The King County Executive race may be interesting. Maybe.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on February 16, 2009, 04:55:54 AM
The King County Executive race may be interesting. Maybe.

Dow Constantine has just declared for King County Executive.  I think it will mainly be between him and Larry Phillips, assuming Bob Ferguson stays out.

http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/seattlepolitics/archives/162077.asp (http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/seattlepolitics/archives/162077.asp)



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 16, 2009, 05:48:18 AM
The King County Executive race may be interesting. Maybe.

Dow Constantine has just declared for King County Executive.  I think it will mainly be between him and Larry Phillips, assuming Bob Ferguson stays out.

http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/seattlepolitics/archives/162077.asp (http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/seattlepolitics/archives/162077.asp)



I wonder who the Republicans will run? Some joke candidate like Irons or Rossi? Or maybe they'll be sneaky and somewhat intelligent and go for someone like Lambert or Dunn?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 16, 2009, 02:46:39 PM
State Rep. Ross Hunter, a smart and ambitious SOB, may enter the race as well. He'd be a major force as well.

As for the Republicans... I don't really know. There are certain people who would be good to get (Toby Nixon, Lambert or Dunn come to mind). I'd be rather surprised if Rossi was interested at all. It may go to Irons by default (if he wants it).

Then again, Pam Roach has been looking for a county job for decades....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lunar on February 16, 2009, 02:51:09 PM
The Washington thread continues?


State amphibian: Pacific Chorus Frog, adopted 2007
State song: "Washington, My Home", adopted 1959
State flower: Coast Rhododendron, adopted 1892
State bird: American Goldfinch (Carduelis tristis), adopted 1951
State tree: Western hemlock, adopted 1947
State fish: Steelhead trout, adopted 1969
State insect: Green darner dragonfly, adopted 1997
State gem: Petrified wood, adopted 1975
[lol gay]
State fruit: Apple, adopted 1989
State grass: Bluebunch wheatgrass (Agropyron spicatum), adopted 1989
State tartan: one designed by Margaret McLeod van Nus and Frank Cannonita, adopted 1991
State fossil: Columbian mammoth or Mammuthus columbi, adopted 1998
State folk song: "Roll On, Columbia" adopted 1987
State ship: the Lady Washington, adopted 2007 (previously the container ship President Washington, adopted 1983)
State dance: Square dance, adopted 1979
[gay x 2]
State vegetable: Walla Walla Sweet Onion, adopted 2007
[gay x 3]
State Marine Mammal: Orca, adopted 2007
[anti-gay, so you're down to x 2 now]


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 16, 2009, 03:11:10 PM
The Walla Walla sweet onion was selected after fourth graders came and lobbied the State Legislature for it. The potato lobby killed it at first but then came around. It's a precious story of young kids learning about the legislative process and special interests coming around and supporting something contrary to their interests for the good of the state.

So why you hating, f*ggot?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lunar on February 16, 2009, 03:15:19 PM
why do you like fourth graders so much pedophile?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lunar on February 16, 2009, 03:16:24 PM
oh wait, I answered my own question

btw potatoes are really starchy and shouldn't count as vegetables.  but i do love them more than I love my legs (see flag).  Should we have a square dance to settle this?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 16, 2009, 03:19:14 PM
Squarin' numbers are just like women - if they're under 13 just do them in your head.

We're probably going to get a state candy this year - Aplets and Cotlets. Mmmm... delicious.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lunar on February 16, 2009, 03:22:13 PM
I don't understand that but it sounds illegal

LET'S DANCE


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 16, 2009, 03:23:46 PM
()

And yes, they do teach square dancing in elementary school. One of my least favorite days every year.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lunar on February 16, 2009, 03:29:23 PM
my elementary school taught square dancing too but it's not because some punk state made it its official dance

this thread has taken a turn for the worse, somebody should quickly change it to discussion about someone's numbers that nobody cares about


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on February 16, 2009, 03:37:08 PM
What's going on?  I check back on this thread to see what people have said about the KC Executive Election and everyone has broken out into a round of do-si-do!  :P

Does Lunar have Washington state envy?  Because our state is so fabulous.

Back on topic, it is almost impossible for me to see a Republican winning the KC Election race, although I-26 (making King County races nonpartisan) makes me hesitate.  I thought that was a dumb change and if I lived in the county I would have voted against it.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lunar on February 16, 2009, 03:46:01 PM
somebody should quickly change it to discussion about someone's numbers that nobody cares about


thx


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 16, 2009, 03:59:05 PM
State Rep. Ross Hunter, a smart and ambitious SOB, may enter the race as well. He'd be a major force as well.

You mean that mofo who wouldn't take down Reichert?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 16, 2009, 04:00:38 PM
It also looks like Sam Reed's bill to modify the top-two primary is going to pass. Rather than just allowing whatever party label people want, there are three options:

1) Select the label of a major party (Under current state law this is any party who receives 5% in an even-numbered year. This bill would change the definition to any party receiving 1% in the Presidential race. For 2008 this would only include Democrats and Republican - last time someone else broke 1% was the Green Party in 2000).

2) Select an "unqualified party" label. You get to become an "unqualified party" by submitting the signatures of 100 voters.

3) Select "States No Party Preference".

While I despise the top-two, I find this change acceptable.

State Rep. Ross Hunter, a smart and ambitious SOB, may enter the race as well. He'd be a major force as well.

You mean that mofo who wouldn't take down Reichert?

Tom got in before him, and then Burner scared both of them. I would've sat that race out too.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lunar on February 16, 2009, 04:03:22 PM
What is your opinion on the Columbian mammoth?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 16, 2009, 04:05:35 PM
Better than the saber-toothed cat.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Bacon King on February 16, 2009, 04:54:37 PM
Walla Walla Sweet Onion? Psh, I bet its got nothin' on my state vegetable (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vidalia_onion).

PS. Vidalia is pronounced Vie-day-ya


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lunar on February 16, 2009, 05:32:46 PM
reminds me of Wasilla











screw Washinton


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Hash on February 16, 2009, 05:37:53 PM

They don't say "Was-say-la" now do they?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on February 16, 2009, 09:13:00 PM
Why don't people like the Walla Walla sweet onion? It tastes wonderful...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Bacon King on February 17, 2009, 03:34:30 PM
Why don't people like the Walla Walla sweet onion? It tastes wonderful...

Consider it a friendly state-to-state sweet onion rivaly.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 17, 2009, 05:23:15 PM
Speaking of agriculture, State Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside) has been appointed Director of the Department of Agriculture. Yay bi-partisanship!

A replacement for his seat will be selected by the local Republican party and then an election will be held this fall for the remainder of the term. Obama narrowly won the district, but the local Democratic base is terrible. I'd say Strong Lean or Likely Republican at this point.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 19, 2009, 08:17:53 AM
The replacement for Bill Grant (D-Walla Walla) will be chosen tomorrow. The top candidate appears to be failed Congressional candidate George Fearing (D-Pasco). If his 2008 performance is any indication then we're screwed.

Quote
Republicans already are lining up to challenge whichever Democrat is named to fill the 16th District seat left open by the death of Bill Grant in January.

Dayton lawyer Terry Nealey, who failed to unseat Grant in November, and Walla Walla County Commissioner Greg Tompkins both have announced their intentions to run for the seat this fall. That's when the person appointed to replace Grant will have to run to finish the remainder of his term.

Grant was re-elected in November, but announced in December that he had been diagnosed with a rare form of lung cancer. He intended to return to the Legislature but died Jan. 4, just over a week before the current session began.

Democratic leaders in the 16th District picked lawyer George Fearing, who lives in Pasco, as their top choice to replace Grant at a meeting Saturday. The two other possible replacements are Pasco Councilwoman Rebecca Francik and Grant's daughter, Laura Grant-Herriot.

County commissioners from Walla Walla, Franklin, Benton and Columbia counties will meet Feb. 20 to choose Grant's replacement from those three nominees.

Tompkins has recused himself from the vote because of his intention to run for the seat this fall.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on February 19, 2009, 11:15:37 PM
Technically this should go in 2010 Elections or Congressional Elections, but unless either Reichert or McKenna declares for the senate race, which is extremely unlikely, I think it is just of interest to us.

Quote
Sen. Patty Murray is up for re-election next year and the Democrat is well positioned against potential rivals, according to a new poll.

A DailyKos/Research 2000 poll has Murray leading high-profile Republicans by a wide margin in hypothetical 2010 matchups.

The survey showed:

    * Murray beating Rep. Dave Reichert 53 percent to 40 percent with 7 percent undecided.
    * Murray beating Attorney General Rob McKenna 55-39 with 6 percent undecided.

The poll of 600 likely voters was conducted Feb. 16-18 and has a margin of error of 4 percent.

http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/seattlepolitics/archives/162351.asp?source=rss (http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/seattlepolitics/archives/162351.asp?source=rss)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 19, 2009, 11:24:15 PM
I thought McKenna would be posting better numbers than he is (not against Murray but his favorable/unfavorables).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 20, 2009, 12:02:34 AM
^ I dunno, that poll seems a lil screwy. 1 in 5 of Republicans have an unfavorable opinion of McKenna? Uh huh.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on February 20, 2009, 03:00:12 AM
New state revenue projections have come out... they are not pretty. It is looking like an $8 billion deficit. Can you say massive state-level layoffs?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 20, 2009, 03:51:13 AM
We really need to switch to an income tax.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 20, 2009, 09:19:49 AM
The thread title remains appropriate.

The problem nowadays is that any new tax increase is going to have to be approved by the voters. If the Legislature sends it to the people and they vote it down then we need to call in a special session and make even deeper cuts.

It's just a messed up situation. Thanks Tim!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on February 20, 2009, 04:28:10 PM
The thread title remains appropriate.

The problem nowadays is that any new tax increase is going to have to be approved by the voters. If the Legislature sends it to the people and they vote it down then we need to call in a special session and make even deeper cuts.

It's just a messed up situation. Thanks Tim!

I thought that initiative failed... Or at least was stuck down by the courts right?
You are talking about I-960, right?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 20, 2009, 06:38:32 PM
The thread title remains appropriate.

The problem nowadays is that any new tax increase is going to have to be approved by the voters. If the Legislature sends it to the people and they vote it down then we need to call in a special session and make even deeper cuts.

It's just a messed up situation. Thanks Tim!

I thought that initiative failed... Or at least was stuck down by the courts right?
You are talking about I-960, right?

It passed narrowly in 2007. I know there was a court challenge from the Senate Democrats but I don't think it actually got overturned.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 20, 2009, 07:19:35 PM
Gregoire has registered with the PDC to run again in 2012. Doesn't necessarily mean she will, but it's rather curious that she has.

Those two loud popping sounds you heard were Jay Inslee and Rob McKenna's heads exploding.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 21, 2009, 12:25:32 AM
They appointed Grant's daughter, Laura Grant-Herriot (D-Walla Walla), to fill his seat. On the one hand her connection to her father might help her get retained. On the other hand the nepotism could be easy to attack. It'll be interesting to watch.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 21, 2009, 02:35:06 AM
They appointed Grant's daughter, Laura Grant-Herriot (D-Walla Walla), to fill his seat. On the one hand her connection to her father might help her get retained. On the other hand the nepotism could be easy to attack. It'll be interesting to watch.

I think that was the right choice for the Democrats.  Bill Grant didn't keep winning because he was a Democrat.  And who is the Bill Grantiest pick?!

Plus, running negative on the LD level -- especially against the daughter of the recently deceased -- is a risky thing.  The GOP might not even have to bother to win this seat, though.  Hell, "Dayton attorney" (there's a high-octane job) might be enough.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 21, 2009, 10:03:38 PM
Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown's Facebook status yesterday:

Quote
“Lisa Brown believes we can not responsibly deal with an 8 billion dollar deficit with an all-cuts budget.”

We're officially launching policy initiatives through Facebook status updates. God help us.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 21, 2009, 10:43:50 PM
Do they like being added by random constituents?

They actually get inappropriately happy when they receive friend requests in my experience.

Can I write on their wall "yo Jeannie, vote no on HB-7612 and we'll totally be BFF"?

That's actually the best way to contact them, IMO. Direct access. And they actually do listen when people tell them stuff. They're normal people (mostly).

Is acceptable to tag them for "Smack My Bitch Up" in that stupid 'songs and people' Notes fad thing?

Only if it's Dennis Flannigan.

totally unrelated:  I received my Tacoma School Bonds vote ballot today.  I assume I support it, but honestly I have no idea what the hell is going on...if you've heard anything that isn't obviously apparent.

The Voters' Pamphlet "Statement Against" was written by Will Baker. You make the call.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 21, 2009, 11:13:49 PM
I've met Dennis Flannigan like four times, and I'm 85% sure he's completely awesome (and/or crazy.)

When he showed up to vote at the polls when I was working, he said we looked overworked and asked me if I would like a muffin.  I said, yeah, I could use a muffin.  He replied, "I bet you would."  Then he went to vote, and immediately left.

I'm not sure whether he was messing with me or just forgot.  Either way, awesome.  (And his ballot statements are always good.)

He had no intention of ever giving you a muffin. His humor is always intentional.

Basically, the big objection I hear is, "no one has the money right now."  Isn't construction cheaper right now, though?  Seems like a good time to pass a construction bond...but the wording is unclear on how long it will take effect.

Yes, and that's a big reason why there's four districts doing it in March. Construction companies are desperate for business and will give lower bids right now. We're going to have to do this construction eventually so why not do it when it's cheaper?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 22, 2009, 02:55:38 AM
Grant's daughter was one of the better picks for the seat. She might have a 15% or so chance of winning re-election---far better than the 1% chance any of the others had.

As for Gregoire in 2012... First, why would McKenna's head pop? If I were McKenna I would much rather run against Gregoire than someone like Sonntag. I think she we would be a weak candidate if she were going for a third term. I hope she doesn't.

So, all tax increases have to be approved by voters now, huh? Maybe I'm totally off here, but isn't this actually bad for Republicans? It just doesn't give them much to run on. "Democrats voted to raise your taxes...and YOU approved it!" just doesn't sound so great. Remember the gas tax increase? Yeah. I think this is the ideal system for a lot of independents and swing voters in Washington... They prefer Democrats but like them some Republican fiscal policies. They can feel safe knowing they can have Democrats in power who cannot raise taxes without their consent.

I suppose we'll find out in November 2010, won't we?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on February 22, 2009, 05:42:53 PM
Grant's daughter was one of the better picks for the seat. She might have a 15% or so chance of winning re-election---far better than the 1% chance any of the others had.

As for Gregoire in 2012... First, why would McKenna's head pop? If I were McKenna I would much rather run against Gregoire than someone like Sonntag. I think she we would be a weak candidate if she were going for a third term. I hope she doesn't.

So, all tax increases have to be approved by voters now, huh? Maybe I'm totally off here, but isn't this actually bad for Republicans? It just doesn't give them much to run on. "Democrats voted to raise your taxes...and YOU approved it!" just doesn't sound so great. Remember the gas tax increase? Yeah. I think this is the ideal system for a lot of independents and swing voters in Washington... They prefer Democrats but like them some Republican fiscal policies. They can feel safe knowing they can have Democrats in power who cannot raise taxes without their consent.

I suppose we'll find out in November 2010, won't we?

I don't think the average voter will think that through.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 22, 2009, 08:25:18 PM
The problem is if the voters don't approve the tax increases this November.

Democrats voted to raise your taxes and you rejected it. They're out of touch and LIBURAL.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 23, 2009, 03:19:20 PM
The marijuana decriminalization bill has become a small circus, because old white guys don't really know much about pot other than that it is frowned upon.

http://effinunsound.com/?p=1027

Not only does Jim Hargrove know nothing about marijuana, he's also for renewing prohibition.  Yes, for alcohol.  Since when is Jim Hargrove an idiot, or is this an isolated incidence?

Other exciting arguments:

Mike Carrell (R-Lakewood): Basically, "I've never been there, but I hear Amsterdam is a craphole."

Pam Roach (R-Auburn): Verbatim, "it is really a lot easier for parents when they can say ‘this is illegal.'" Note your own irony.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 24, 2009, 02:24:31 AM
Jim Hargrove has a long and illustrious history of idiocy. He's basically our Ben Nelson/Mark Pryor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on February 24, 2009, 02:33:16 PM
Looks like Locke will be the new Secretary of Commerce:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29355278/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 25, 2009, 02:24:23 AM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2008782111_webnoble24m.html

oops


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 25, 2009, 03:56:47 PM
Elections director maps tonight out of boredom/senioritis


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 26, 2009, 02:26:50 AM
Best HA post... ever:

http://horsesass.org/?p=13147


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 26, 2009, 03:18:01 AM
Best HA post... ever:

http://horsesass.org/?p=13147

That was teetering on the edge of the most awesome thing ever, until I noticed that the event's primary sponsor is the Stranger.  That pushed it over the edge.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on February 26, 2009, 12:16:44 PM
Question for my fellow Washingtonians: If Washington somehow manages to pull out an additional congressional district from the 2010 census (only possible if the DC bill passes and Utah gets its 4th before the census, I believe), what would the districts look like, and where would it go?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 26, 2009, 01:22:28 PM
Question for my fellow Washingtonians: If Washington somehow manages to pull out an addition congressional district from the 2010 census (only possible if the DC bill passes and Utah gets its 4th before the census, I believe), what would the districts look like, and where would it go?

That is a good question.  I'll say this:  I have yet to see a district plan offered that doesn't have a trans-Cascades district.  Should make things pretty interesting.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 26, 2009, 01:47:49 PM
Question for my fellow Washingtonians: If Washington somehow manages to pull out an addition congressional district from the 2010 census (only possible if the DC bill passes and Utah gets its 4th before the census, I believe), what would the districts look like, and where would it go?

That is a good question.  I'll say this:  I have yet to see a district plan offered that doesn't have a trans-Cascades district.  Should make things pretty interesting.

Of course you haven't, because not having one would be impossible...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 26, 2009, 01:52:18 PM
Question for my fellow Washingtonians: If Washington somehow manages to pull out an addition congressional district from the 2010 census (only possible if the DC bill passes and Utah gets its 4th before the census, I believe), what would the districts look like, and where would it go?

That is a good question.  I'll say this:  I have yet to see a district plan offered that doesn't have a trans-Cascades district.  Should make things pretty interesting.

Of course you haven't, because not having one would be impossible...

Maybe Hanford will explode before the next Census.

i win


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on February 26, 2009, 02:53:28 PM
I just want Olympia to not be divided anymore, its annoying.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 26, 2009, 11:23:17 PM
Darcy Burner, Version 2.0: http://delbeneforcongress.com/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 27, 2009, 12:21:53 AM
Darcy Burner, Version 2.0: http://delbeneforcongress.com/

It's almost like a cruel parody... :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on February 27, 2009, 12:31:09 PM
National Journal released its annual ranking of the most liberal and conservative senators based on their 2008 voting record.  And the most liberal senator in 2008 was our own, Patty Murray!  :D

I suppose, in fairness, Teddy was out for much of last year so maybe her trophy should come with an asterisk, lol.

Look for the WA GOP to attack her on this in 2010.  Not that it will help them.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2009/02/obama-congress.html (http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2009/02/obama-congress.html)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on February 27, 2009, 01:36:49 PM
Darcy Burner, Version 2.0: http://delbeneforcongress.com/

It's almost like a cruel parody... :(

Dear lord no.

Burner would have been a good congresswoman once she got elected but she just couldn't get past that initial hurdle.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 27, 2009, 02:33:57 PM
I've never understood how Murray manages to have identical approval ratings to Cantwell.  I mean, huh?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 27, 2009, 10:32:37 PM
Joe Turner is angry: http://blogs.thenewstribune.com/politics/2009/02/27/democrats_say_they_get_so_little_credit_

Well worth a read.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on February 27, 2009, 11:44:55 PM
Aimee Curl wrote a good but long profile of Sen. Murray in the Seattle Weekly.  Some possible clues to her popularity can be surmised from reading it.  One passage noted:

Quote
Murray, seated in her office near a full-sized WSU flag (her alma mater) that towers in the corner, uses a basketball analogy when asked about the low expectations that still confront her. "It's easier to get to the basket if no one's blocking you," she insists. And her under-the-radar persona, the one still familiar to voters back home, may be the key to Murray's staying power, says UW's Olson. "That style of politics goes well with this state. Any more triumphalism doesn't sit well with the electorate."

Local consultant Butterworth agrees that Murray intuitively understands the limits of boasting to the public. "Somewhere along the line she got inoculated against Senate-itis," he adds, referencing the tendency to forget where one's from that often gets officeholders voted out.

As for the politics of 2010, former opponent George Nethercutt notes:

Quote
Nethercutt says no one's lining up to go after Murray in 2010. Butterworth concurs: "I don't think she has a vulnerability other than the things she can't control, the partisan mood when she's up for re-election."

http://www.seattleweekly.com/2009-01-28/news/patty-murray-s-unlikely-hill-climb/1 (http://www.seattleweekly.com/2009-01-28/news/patty-murray-s-unlikely-hill-climb/1)


I think this is the first time Murray has topped the NJ rankings.  Her 2008 liberal score of 92.7% is higher than her lifetime liberal score, which is 84%.  It's not clear if 2008 is an anomaly or if she is really moving toward Ted Kennedy/Jack Reed/Barbara Boxer land.

Cantwell's average lifetime liberal score looks to be in the high 70s, putting her firmly in mainstream Democratic territory.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: minionofmidas on February 28, 2009, 08:27:37 AM
p.s. i blame my productivity on the meth they put in mike's deluxe

()

and no date :(
That looks like very soft cheap bread. And very cheap processed cheese. Not even the salad looks healthy. Quality of the sausage is harder to judge, although if it's good quality it's sliced too thin for maximum tastyness, which of course leads me to believe it's probably as crappy as the remainder.
So, it's not the meth. Just the general badness. Not that I'm complaining, though. Keep eating bad food and making great maps, Ben!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: minionofmidas on February 28, 2009, 08:32:54 AM
deathdig - I-1000/Death with Dignity Cool one

()

What's the bright red precinct here like; it seems to stand out on a couple other maps as well?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 28, 2009, 01:36:40 PM
I had a bad feeling about Hecht since the moment I met him. Excuse me whilst I rub this in the face of my Hecht-voting mother...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 28, 2009, 02:08:13 PM
deathdig - I-1000/Death with Dignity Cool one

()

What's the bright red precinct here like; it seems to stand out on a couple other maps as well?

Grandview (http://46dems.com/kcdems/precinctmap.php?pct=479).  Random spot of farmland, 10 voters.

Populated areas it failed:

1. Lutheran retirement complex (in the northwest of the zoom (http://www.goldengiven.net/junk/maps/2009KING/deathdig_old_seattle.png) map)

2. A few scattered working-class precincts in South Seattle

3. A weird cluster of four suburban precincts (see zoom map) that seem slightly less Democratic than they should be.  bgwah and I decided that it might be because of a conservative Lutheran church in the area.  Only real explanation for it failing this (http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=11816+ne+142nd+st,+kirkland,+wa&sll=47.727821,-122.181487&sspn=0.002959,0.009656&ie=UTF8&ll=47.732252,-122.182775&spn=0.011142,0.038624&t=h&z=15&iwloc=addr&layer=c&cbll=47.72834,-122.183029&panoid=Ag-Ddoo-Nry5LFO5MtnfwA&cbp=12,76.33822352597898,,0,5) we could come up with.

4. Some Bellevue precincts filled with a mix of Indian immigrants and olds.

5. A Kirkland precinct with a Catholic university, that also swung from Bush +37 to a tie.  3:2 against Death with Dignity, though.

6. A slightly inexplicable new apartment complex just south of Seattle, which voted 97%-2% Obama and 2-to-1 "no" on Death with Dignity, easily the biggest failure in the county.  No real idea there on either count.

7. A mish-mash of older and more socially conservative precincts to the South, plus the Muckleshoot Rez (on the southern county border, guess where fromthe turnout map (http://www.goldengiven.net/junk/maps/2008PREZ/king_turnout.png)!).

I assume (6) must include some Catholic areas, because I-1000 actually did fine in the most social con part of King County, the rural southeast outside of Enumclaw.  Yet another damn reason I wish the Census tracked religion.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: minionofmidas on February 28, 2009, 02:12:10 PM
Sort of an enclave of not-yet-developped land. I approve of it.

But why is it its own precinct? ??? Oh, Washington State with its tiny precincts that make a mockery of the secrecy of the vote...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 28, 2009, 02:21:43 PM

But why is it its own precinct? ??? Oh, Washington State with its tiny precincts that make a mockery of the secrecy of the vote...

Kinda impossible to avoid.  It's wedged between SeaTac, Kent and Tukwila.  Don't hate though, privacy consolidations (and unnecessarily large precincts) turn into crap like this (http://www.goldengiven.net/junk/maps/2008PREZ/pierce_old.png).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: minionofmidas on February 28, 2009, 02:31:45 PM

But why is it its own precinct? ??? Oh, Washington State with its tiny precincts that make a mockery of the secrecy of the vote...

Kinda impossible to avoid.  It's wedged between SeaTac, Kent and Tukwila.
So? They could easily either have them vote in one of the neighboring precincts except for city elections, or (though that would be ugly) do a privacy consolidation with some other uninhabited scraps of land. Or just have one of the cities formally annex it.
Quote
Don't hate though, privacy consolidations (and unnecessarily large precincts) turn into crap like this (http://www.goldengiven.net/junk/maps/2008PREZ/pierce_old.png).
You mean those grey areas had votes cast and they weren't consolidated into something else but just not released?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 28, 2009, 02:53:46 PM
They could easily either have them vote in one of the neighboring precincts except for city elections
Too complicated. They print one ballot type per precinct.

or (though that would be ugly) do a privacy consolidation with some other uninhabited scraps of land
Only if they were all in the same Legislative District, County Council District, Congressional District, Fire District, School District, etc.

Or just have one of the cities formally annex it.
While this would be nice, cities generally don't make annexation decisions based upon precinct-privacy concerns.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: minionofmidas on February 28, 2009, 03:01:53 PM
They could easily either have them vote in one of the neighboring precincts except for city elections
Too complicated. They print one ballot type per precinct.

While it does indeed make things a bit more complicated, it's not as if other states weren't doing the same thing... of course, in some states city elections are held on a different date.

The easiest thing to manage would probably be a privacy consolidation with a neighboring city precinct.

Incidentally, some German states have areas outside the municipal organization as well - most extensive in Bavaria. Hesse has a few. All but one are quite sizable, actually, and all but one (a different one) are entirely uninhabited. That one has two inhabitants at some inn in the middle of the forest. (The nearest inhabited area is quite near, actually, but is in Lower Saxony. The nearest inhabited area in Hesse is, like 10 km away or something.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 28, 2009, 03:03:36 PM
1. Incorporated/unincorporated split precincts piss me off and are technically against Washington state law (doesn't stop about four counties), which is good, because they piss me off.  Even if it's just ten voters, it's not the right total, damn it!

2. They actually do that when they can (here (http://46dems.com/kcdems/precinctmap.php?pct=1114)), but they can't here.

3. I imagine that the Grandview people have intentionally avoided being in any of those cities.  That's generally how islands like this form.

4. No elections department actually cares about voter privacy.  They just start going with it if their elections software starts doing it automatically.

5. Small precincts are fun.

On Pierce, the gray precincts were consolidated in the sense that you can get their total by subtracting the given total from the county total :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: minionofmidas on February 28, 2009, 03:11:27 PM
2. They actually do that when they can (here (http://46dems.com/kcdems/precinctmap.php?pct=1114)), but they can't here.
Makes sense, thanx.
Quote
4. No elections department actually cares about voter privacy.  They just start going with it if their elections software starts doing it automatically.
Or if there's a law to follow. Germany bans undersized precincts. Although the rule doesn't seem to be entirely hard and fast - Frankfurt's smallest precinct (about 200-odd registered voters) is that way because the nearest inhabited area is a good bit away, but presumably also because it's always been that way (ie if that neighborhood were built in that size today, they'd tell people to not be so frigging lazy if they want to vote.) Berlin actually does a results presentayshe consolidation for a small precinct of about 100 people on an island.

Quote
5. Small precincts are fun.
In a way. A low average precinct size is fun (f[/color=black]uc[/color]k privacy - well at least as we're still talking, say, 50+ or 40+ votes I agree with the sentiment). A wide variation is more annoying than fun - makes for stupid queries like mine that started this discussion. ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 28, 2009, 05:09:07 PM
They could easily either have them vote in one of the neighboring precincts except for city elections
Too complicated. They print one ballot type per precinct.

My precinct was split between the transit-zone thing that voted on the light rail and what not last November. I was on the side of the subdivision's street that didn't get to vote, lulz (the borders make no sense IMO).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 28, 2009, 05:48:48 PM
They could easily either have them vote in one of the neighboring precincts except for city elections
Too complicated. They print one ballot type per precinct.

My precinct was split between the transit-zone thing that voted on the light rail and what not last November. I was on the side of the subdivision's street that didn't get to vote, lulz (the borders make no sense IMO).

There are places that don't split at all, but WA is not one of them.  In Clark County, Nevada, and New York City, you'll see pages of precincts that just contain a land parcel or two.  Some of them have no voters, some one house or a development, some just an apartment complex.  Pretty ridiculous.

I like the tiny-vote precincts but they do mess up maps.  Okanogan County is kind of fun -- its precincts are all between 40 and 150 voters.  But I think that the ideal precinct size in a populous county about 250-750.  To be fair to King, its precincts are optimally-sized otherwise, and they do a good job of actually making them neighborhood-relevant.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 28, 2009, 05:55:13 PM
4. Some Bellevue precincts filled with a mix of Indian immigrants and olds.

There also may be a large Mormon population in that area. I think there's a LDS church in the vicinity, nto to mention the Seattle LDS Temple just to the south by I-90.

Do you have a % Romney map from the primary for King County?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on March 02, 2009, 03:42:03 AM
The American Prospect has an interesting article on the failure of Darcy Burner's campaign in the 8th Congressional District.  The author of the story, Eli Sanders, has written the piece as a meditation on the limitations of the power of the "Netroots."

http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=anatomy_of_a_netroots_failure (http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=anatomy_of_a_netroots_failure)

Some telling bits:

Quote
Ultimately, Republicans were able to successfully do with the "Burner is a netroots radical" meme what liberal bloggers had been able to with the Responsible Plan. That is, they got the mainstream media to notice and start chattering. Time magazine asked of the Burner-Reichert race: "Will the Netroots Sink a Microsoft Dem?" The Seattle Times led off Burner's candidate profile by juxtaposing her 8th District image and her netroots persona: "While her campaign talks up her blue-collar roots and family life, online activists from all over the country see her as one of their own."

Additionally, the very traits that made Burner so popular among liberal netizens probably were not so endearing to the blue-collar residents of the southern part of the 8th District (an area that is quite close to the Fort Lewis Army base and therefore also has a significant number of military families). Throughout the campaign, this area in particular provided a very strong reminder that offline politics is not the virtual meritocracy that members of the netroots have created. "It's a symptom of their idealism that they can pick someone like Darcy Burner, who's never run for office, and turn her into a first-tier congressional candidate," a Democratic consultant told me.

Quote
Heffter's front-page story cast Burner's economics-degree claim as an exaggeration and explained the "special field" situation. But politics is about what can be said in sound bites and simple language. All Reichert needed for a lethal television attack ad was a video clip of Burner saying, "I loved economics so much I got a degree in it, from Harvard," and one sentence torn out of the Heffter article: "Burner doesn't have an economics degree from Harvard." With everyone debating Burner's Ivy League pedigree, swing voters had another reason to either resent Burner as an elitist or to reject her as a liar.

The fury that Burner and liberal bloggers feel about the impact of the Heffter story and the ensuing television ads is connected to their frustration at being unable to drown it all out with their own version of reality -- and a reminder of the current limits of blog influence. Even though political blogs are powerful and growing more so all the time, they still are not nearly as influential as a mainstream newspaper article that gets turned into an effective television attack ad that gets turned into days of talk-radio chatter (as happened in this case).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 03, 2009, 11:14:39 PM
House catfight!

Tim Sekerak, House Counsel:
Quote
Subject: TrueLobby website

Many of you have received a message from the principal behind the website TrueLobby informing you that his website has been “approved for use” by the House and Senate. Let me clarify:

The website called TrueLobby is not currently blocked. We simply raised some questions about its use and needed to make clear to former Rep. (Mike) Sherstad that the use of this site by members and staff would be bound by ethics laws and House policies.

From page 86 of the Ethics Manual:

Public resources are entrusted to legislators and legis­lative employees to further the public interest. Appro­priation of public facilities, equipment, services, and personnel for personal benefit can undermine this trust and impedes the proper performance of government’s work. At the same time, legitimate need exists for lim­ited exceptions to this rule. Where use is incidental, infrequent, involves de minimis or no cost to the state, does not interfere with performance of official duties, and is reasonable in light of legitimate needs and ex­pectations of the public work force, neither the public trust nor government efficiency suffers to any signifi­cant degree. Adoption of this rule is based on the premise that all legislators and legislative employees will use good judgment to protect public resources and to fulfill the obligations stated in the policy of the ethics act: “State officials and employees of government hold a public trust that obligates them, in a special way, to honesty and integrity in fulfilling the responsibilities to which they are elected and appointed. Paramount in that trust is the principle that public office, whether elected or appointed, may not be used for personal gain or pri­vate advantage.” This trust is grounded in the personal responsibility of each legislator and employee.

The quote above makes it clear that the obligation to use good judgment rests with all of us individually. Social networking is an interesting phenomenon and the House has no desire to act like the internet doesn’t exist or isn’t useful in doing our jobs. But misinterpretation of the risks and rapid rules changes are inherent in the internet environment.

Questions to ask yourself:
(i) Will my personal use of public resources result in added costs or any other disadvantage to the legislature? Am I using this resource in order to avoid personal expense?
(ii) Are my supervisors aware of my personal use of public resources? Do I feel a reluctance to discuss this subject with my supervisor or my fellow employees?
(iii) Am I confident that my use of legislative equipment will not compromise the security or integrity of legislative information, software, or the legislative information network?
(iv) Are public resources being used for purposes that could be embarrassing to the legislature by creating an appearance of impropriety?

And of course, no campaign activity may be conducted on state time regardless of the website used.

This raises many questions, I’m sure. I’d be happy to try to answer them, if you recognize that sometimes the answer is ‘maybe.’ Thanks to those folks who brought this matter to my attention. It just helps me prove the point that House employees are trying to get this right.

State Representative Geoff Simpson:
Quote
Subject: RE: TrueLobby website

Thanks mommy. I need you to decide for me what websites I can and cannot visit.

House Clerk Barbara Baker:
Quote
Subject: RE: TrueLobby website

Rep. Simpson, despite repeated requests to keep staff out of his tirades, apparently is not able to do so. Our House counsel is respectful to the members of this body, and I expect members to return that respect (to him and all of our staff) unless there is a good reason not to, in which case my office should be notified.

That said, this message was not intended to decide anything for anyone. It was to explain the House position on a website developed by a former member, Mike Sherstad. This website has been the subject of much discussion and many questions.

The point here is not to start an email war. But I wouldn’t be doing my job if messages like this go unchallenged.

Barbara

Simpson again:
Quote
Subject: RE: TrueLobby website

Hopefully in order to remain consistent on your censorship of materials members may read, you will police each one of our desks and offices as well.

Keep in mind that these e-mails were sent not only to every member of the State House but to all of their staff as well.

God I love our state government.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 03, 2009, 11:25:50 PM
Geoff Simpson really is kind of a dick, isn't he?

They caught him on Sound Politics posting under a sockpuppet account.  Seems to have one heck of a temper, domestic violence issues aside.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 06, 2009, 02:29:08 AM
Chirp...chirp...chirp.

Lame attempt at kicking some life back into this place (bold text makes it better, baby):

***

The State Senate has killed (http://www.theolympian.com/politicsblog/story/778274.html) the two-years-late wet dream of New Urbanists: rezoning Olympia's "isthmus" (which is not actually an isthmus) into a condo-friendly area.  This was an interesting below-the-radar issue (http://www.theolympian.com/buildingheights/story/479110.html).  Opposition was staunch almost to the point of rejecting the suggestion of any change whatsoever.  Regardless of the merits of the project, it showed just how knee-jerk of an anti-development town Olympia is.

Personally, I think Olympia [the city, which was for the rezone] should be able to do virtually whatever it wants, and I have no idea why the State Senate is intervening.  I also have no idea why the "no" votes were a roll-call of mostly-horribles (http://apps.leg.wa.gov/billinfo/summary.aspx?bill=5800&year=2009).  Maybe I should change my mind (at least there's Rodney Tom?)

***

As a cost-saving measure, the state is considering (http://blogs.thenewstribune.com/politics/2009/03/05/25_more_state_parks_might_be_mothballed) closing the freaking Peace Arch...well, the state park.  Also on the cutting board:  Dash Point, Saltwater, Millersylvania, Flaming Geyser, a bunch of other ones I've never heard of.

***

I think more politicians should have blogs like Pam Roach's, so we can tell how batsh**t crazy they are.  Pam Roach's latest is about a Senate ethics investigation (http://pamroachreport.blogspot.com/2009/02/ethics-board-poised-to-quash-147.html) into her.  Some choice quotes:

On the woman who filed the complaint: "Let's not forget here that this woman was touted by CPS as just being wonderful...they were wrong...I was right."

On why she filed it: "...she was coached to do so."

On who did that: "Who coached her? Someone or some entity that knew an ethics board even existed. And, someone who knew I was even writing a blog. I am guessing either a CPS worker or the evil CASA who railed against me in court when I showed an interest in the Stuth case and then quickly bowed out as soon as the press entered the picture."

Actually, just read the entire thing.  And the second comment below, which is like a cross between a Lord of the Flies study guide and the Bible Channel.

Bonus fact:  One of Pam Roach's favorite things (http://www.blogger.com/profile/18192817037938680418) is The Sound of Music.  Really.

***

In conclusion, I'm already sick of seeing Dale Washam's face whenever I look at property assessments (http://www.co.pierce.wa.us/pc/abtus/ourorg/at/at.htm).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on March 06, 2009, 03:06:01 AM
Ugh. We went over this issue for about two years in Olympia. I was happy when they finally passed it because we need some development downtown, we can't simply turn down every opporitunity that comes to us because it would "ruin the views" (of which there are none because there would be no buildings on either side of the one to be constructed). Also I am enraged that the state government would take sides in such a local issue, it is not their place. This is probably the one time I actually agree with Tim Sheldon... ew...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 08, 2009, 07:23:36 PM
Random hypothetical: Let's say the Top-two was in use in 1996. What would've been the result of the Locke vs. Rice general election?

I'm sure Locke would've won, but by how much? What would King County have looked like?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 09, 2009, 09:28:52 PM
State House voted 54-43 today to force Pierce County to switch to all-mail voting.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 09, 2009, 10:15:10 PM
State House voted 54-43 today to force Pierce County to switch to all-mail voting.

f**k!  Effective immediately?

Where's the vote list, out of curiosity?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 09, 2009, 11:04:14 PM
State House voted 54-43 today to force Pierce County to switch to all-mail voting.

f**k!  Effective immediately?

Where's the vote list, out of curiosity?

Assuming the State Senate passes it (a legitimate question mark) and Gregoire signs it (another question mark) then the switch would occur at the August primary.

All Pierce County voted "No" except for Flannigan, Darneille, Seaquist and Green. Stupid votes on behalf of the last two IMO (something which has been made clear to them if you catch my drift). Full roll call is here: http://apps.leg.wa.gov/billinfo/summary.aspx?bill=1572&year=2009


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on March 09, 2009, 11:12:48 PM
Meh, I am fine with that. It would be nice if the entire state used the same voting system. Also maybe then Pierce wouldn't be as messed up when it comes to reporting numbers in a timely manner (I realize this is just a dream).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 10, 2009, 10:48:52 PM
All the major school levies and bonds are going down hard tonight. Tacoma and Puyallup are failing 53 to 47 and Auburn is getting defeated by a 58 to 42 margin. Even Vashon Island rejected their bond (didn't even get a majority).

Doesn't bode well for any tax increases that might need to get approved this fall...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 10, 2009, 10:55:14 PM
Vashon rejected a school levy?!

The earth just ended.  I think it and Bainbridge Island are the only SDs to have never failed one.

Snoqualmie Valley's is passing no problem, assuming it makes turnout requirements.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 10, 2009, 10:58:03 PM
Carbonado is passing their's too. The small districts never seem to have much of an issue; don't know why.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 10, 2009, 11:19:08 PM
This might help explain why the Vashon Island bond failed:

http://www.thenewstribune.com/topstories/story/657680.html

Quote
A pair of construction bond and capital levy proposals totaling $314 million in Puyallup also lacked the big-number support needed for passage. The story appeared similar in Auburn, where the district was asking for about $285 million in bonds and levies and on Vashon Island, where the tiny school system wanted $75.5 million for major work on its high school, middle and elementary schools.

That's $7,458 per person on Vashon, or $47,484 per public school student.

I mean...damn.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 10, 2009, 11:22:01 PM
Yea, that is pretty ridiculous when one stops and thinks about it. Their high school is pretty terrible though; it needs a serious re-model.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 11, 2009, 01:21:43 AM
Almost below-the-radar, if it weren't for Facebook: Jeannie Darneille's perennial Voting Rights Bill passed (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2008838814_apwaxgrfelonvoting1stldwritethru.html) the House today, 53-43.

In the simplest terms, the current system requires that convicted felons:

A) Serve their full sentence, including community custody, parole and probation.

B) Pay all of their restitution fees and legal fees, without any consideration for indigence waivers.

Darneille's bill fully eliminates requirement "B."

Regardless of your feelings about felon/ex-felon enfranchisement, this bill does have one tangible benefit.  It is a hell of a lot easier to track felons based on state custody status, than by using the tangled mess that was the voting rights restoration process.  Keeps the rolls cleaner, and we need that.  I say this as a concerned citizen and a convicted felon.

Edit:  My guess is that the SoS's office pushed this bill privately, for that reason; it's not really a political winner at large.  This guess happens to be pretty un-guessy, considering that David Ammons (ex-AP, now-Reedite) was the first attaboy on FB.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 11, 2009, 04:05:05 AM
Almost missed this, too.  The State House passed SB 5688 today.  SB 5688 expands Washington's domestic partnership law to basically be marriage-without-the-name.

The vote was 30-18.  Linda Evans Parlette (R-Wenatchee) was absent.  Can't imagine she would have voted yes.

Democratic switchers were Jim Hargrove (D-Hoquiam), Brian Hatfield (D-Raymond), Tim Sheldon (D-Umbass) and Paull Shin (D-Edmonds). 

Republican switchers were Dale Brandland (R-Bellingham), Cheryl Pflug (R-Maple Valley) and Curtis King (R-Yakima).

I thought King basically rode in on challenging Jim Clements from the right.  His vote for the "loose" domestic partnership bill last year was a surprise to me, and now this.  It's not like he's playing to his district's politics by voting liberally on gay rights.  Strange?

Anyway, opponents threaten Prop.-8 style campaign.  I'll go out on a limb and say that would be unlikely to pass, even if it properly materialized.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 11, 2009, 03:55:26 PM
King isn't as crazy as one might think at first glance. Still a little surprising though. Brandland and Pflug could potential be vulnerable for re-election obviously.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on March 11, 2009, 05:28:53 PM
Vashon rejected a school levy?!

The earth just ended.  I think it and Bainbridge Island are the only SDs to have never failed one.

Snoqualmie Valley's is passing no problem, assuming it makes turnout requirements.

Griffin School District has never failed a levy as far as I can remember.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 11, 2009, 08:45:27 PM
Weirdly active news day for the last few.

Guess what the Pierce County Assessor's Office failed to do last year with half of their assessed properties?

Assess them (http://blogs.thenewstribune.com/politics/2009/03/11/pierce_county_skipped_tens_of_thousands_).

That's a pretty high bar for screw-up for Dale Washam to reach, in fairness.

Maybe you'll know, Meeker:  Is this one of those done-but-not-talked-about corner-cutting things?  Seems like a pretty obvious violation of state law to me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 11, 2009, 11:13:21 PM
Think of the census. Madsen was doing statistical sampling while Washam says they need to physically count everyone.

The difference from the census being 1) it's not unconstitutional, just questionably legal and 2) everyone does it.

So Washam is technically right but it's not like this is some massively neglectful scandal.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on March 12, 2009, 03:24:42 AM
Also we have a new drug czar: Gil Kerlikowske!

Whoot


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 14, 2009, 05:08:20 PM
Well, the gay-marriage-in-name-only thing is obviously going to pass.  It has 57 sponsors in the State House.

Sponsoring Republicans are Maureen Walsh (R-College Place) and Norm Johnson (R-Yakima).  So, 2/3 of the 14th (Yakima)'s GOP delegation supports this.  Very strange (apparently the local GOP isn't happy with either.)

Non-sponsoring Democrats are Frank Chopp (D-Seattle), Laura Grant-Herriot (D-Walla Walla), Tami Green (D-Lakewood), Troy Kelley (D-Lakewoody Tacoma), Mark Miloscia (D-Federal Way) and Tim Probst (D-Vancouver).  Obviously, Chopp will vote "yes."  Not sure about Grant-Herriot or Probst.  Miloscia is on the record as opposing.

Any idea about Green or Kelley, Meeker?  Is the 28th really this hostile to gay rights?  I mean, Seaquist sponsored the thing.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 14, 2009, 05:18:58 PM
Green is kind of queasy on gay rights stuff (it's the Mormon in her). She's coming around though and is better than she was even a few years ago.

Kelley is a Moderate Hero who is constantly convinced he's on the verge of losing re-election.

So basically both could vote for the thing and be perfectly safe but both may not for different reasons.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 14, 2009, 06:53:01 PM
These are the only interesting elections-related bills that are still alive:

- A bill to eliminate special elections in March and only allow previously failed tax levies and new bond issues in May
- A bill that would make it illegal to lie about your opponent
- The felon voting bill that was discussed earlier
- The bill to force Pierce County to switch to vote-by-mail
- A bill to stop sending ballots to inactive voters
- A bill that slightly modifies where certain candidates can file for office and abolishes the filling fee for PCO's


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 14, 2009, 08:21:31 PM
These are the only interesting elections-related bills that are still alive:

- A bill to eliminate special elections in March and only allow previously failed tax levies and new bond issues in May

What's the justification for that?

- A bill to stop sending ballots to inactive voters

To save money, or is this one of those "this will reform the election system even if we're not sure why" deals?

- A bill that would make it illegal to lie about your opponent

Should I be as skeptical as I am, or is this some sort of loophole?

- A bill that slightly modifies where certain candidates can file for office and abolishes the filling fee for PCO's

Sweet.  I'm totally filing for PCO next time.  I mean, why not.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 14, 2009, 08:57:04 PM
What's the justification for that?

It's not that inconvenient for school boards and such to wait a month or go a month before but it's rather costly and inconvenient for county auditors to have to constantly be running elections for the first five months of the year (and then the primary and general).

To save money, or is this one of those "this will reform the election system even if we're not sure why" deals?

It'll save money, but it also just sort of makes sense. You have to be really, really inactive to be labeled an inactive voter. It doesn't happen by mistake.

Should I be as skeptical as I am, or is this some sort of loophole?

It used to be the law and then was ruled unconstitutional (I wonder why...) This is Tim Sheldon basically re-writing the law to make it not unconstitutional. I'm rather skeptical though.

http://apps.leg.wa.gov/billinfo/Summary.aspx?bill=5211&year=2009

Sweet.  I'm totally filing for PCO next time.  I mean, why not.

The $1 filling fee was really that much of a deterrent? ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 14, 2009, 10:30:39 PM
It'll save money, but it also just sort of makes sense. You have to be really, really inactive to be labeled an inactive voter. It doesn't happen by mistake.

As far as I know, only USPS returning mail makes a voter inactive.  Not voting doesn't make you inactive, to my knowledge.  One of my neighbors has been registered since the '70s or something, and has never voted.  He's still active.

The big downside is probably people who have their mailing and residence addresses switched on registration.  Whitman County did that to bgwah.  But now that there are no polling places, I guess that doesn't matter much.  With VBM, they're not going to get it anyway, if they've moved or have a wrong address.  So the only voters who will be "missed" are those that temporarily relocate.

Honestly, I didn't realize we did send ballots to inactive voters...so no qualms.

The $1 filling fee was really that much of a deterrent? ;)

Do you know how many Jack in the Box tacos I could get for that $1?

TWO AND A QUARTER!

Are you asking me to put democracy before tacos?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 15, 2009, 03:26:47 AM
http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/politicsnorthwest/index.html#039070

sigh...

I mean, I understand that transportation infrastructure has to make concessions to current lifestyle.  But, every single freaking time in this state?

Thanks to people like John Bailo, natch:

Density breeds crime, pollution and low quality of life...always.  Once fresh Seattle neighborhoods that used to be like small towns have been hellified into urban concrete walled nightmares.  The "ligth rail" behemoth of Nichles, Sims and Gregoire will spread decay outward towards Redmond.  The only hope is to leave.

(One big sic.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 15, 2009, 03:30:44 AM
I first read that as "Bills to mandate dentistry around light rail stations are dead".

Now that's a bill I could get behind.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 15, 2009, 03:34:01 AM
My favorite part is this one:

John Fox, of the Seattle Displacement Coalition, said that mandated density could leave already congested Capitol Hill, the University District, Roosevelt, Northgate and other neighborhoods around Sound Transit stations denser than any area north of San Francisco.

What kind of weird complaint is that.  First, it's wrong.  Vancouver has much denser neighborhoods.  So, basically, the complaint is that Seattle would be the densest city between San Francisco and Vancouver.  OH GOD NO, ANYTHING BUT THAT

I'm sorry, I had to treat your amusing post like it was serious so I could complain more


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 15, 2009, 03:48:44 AM
Your outrage is legitimate. I'm just really tired and sick.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 16, 2009, 02:17:52 AM
http://columbian.com/article/20090315/NEWS02/703159957/-1/NEWS

No comment.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lunar on March 16, 2009, 02:50:59 AM
Washington?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 16, 2009, 12:03:31 PM
Interesting article.  That kind of reminds me of something I've been meaning to ask:  Who the hell is Jaime Herrera?  I know that she was appointed in 2007, but as far as I can tell she just appeared.  She seems young, conservative and photogenic.  Clark County is also not a bad part of the state to be from, politically.  Does she have any future potential?

All I know about her beyond that is that I once saw her throw some papers on TVW, and was told she was out of order.  It was awkward and staged, but pretty funny

She was an intern in the State House a few years ago (2004ish I think) and then was a low-level staff for McMorris Rodgers for a little while. When Curtis resigned over the prostitution scandal the local GOP thought she'd be a good pick for some reason. Bit of an odd decision and one that I suspect pissed off some old dogs down there, but nonetheless a smart decision.

In terms of her long-term viability (and referring back to that article), Zarelli and Orcutt actually agree with and support the type of people that showed up at that event. Herrera just humors those types. With the right fundraising she could be a good candidate on a larger scale (WA-03...)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 16, 2009, 12:40:50 PM
Here's the extremely threatening e-mail that the Labor Council CC'd some Legislators on and thus caused Gregoire, Chopp and Brown to call the state patrol.

Quote
Subject: RE: Strategy Call on Worker Privacy Act Legislation

Brothers and Sisters,

Just a quick update on where we are on the Worker Privacy Act:

*

Great leadership call yesterday where folks agreed that we would push for passage in the House this week and then call for a union president meeting with the Governor and the Majority Leader of the Senate to move the bill through the rest of the process

*

Union leaders would send a message to the State Democratic party and to the Truman and Roosevelt funds from the House and Senate that "not another dime from labor" until the Governor signs the Worker Privacy Act.

*

To date the Governor has received 2,247 contacts on the bill; the Speaker of the House has received 236 contacts from his constituents; and the Majority Leader has received 275 contacts from her constituents; [all of these numbers are minimums - there are a number of contacts that we have not been able to log, e.g., the State Democratic party did a 100,000 piece e-mail last Friday and we know that over 11,000 folks downloaded the piece but they have no way of knowing how many followed through with contacts].

*

The Governor, the Speaker and the Majority Leader met this morning. While we don't have a report back yet we do have a meeting with the Speaker at 4:00 pm this afternoon. It is our hope that the Speaker will run the bill as the last bill on the floor tonight or tomorrow night.

*

See attached letter from Scott Carson of Boeing dated March 9 to the Governor, Speaker and Majority Leader. He is now dubbing the bill the "neutrality bill". Just another move to try and conflate our bill with the Cedilla bill which was struck down by the US Supreme Court last June.

I will try and send another update later tonight. Keep the calls into the three leaders coming.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 16, 2009, 06:37:09 PM
Seattle PI publishes their last issue tomorrow.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 17, 2009, 12:14:48 AM
Aaaaand opportunistic feeding frenzy starts...NOW!

()

Stay classy, newspaper business


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on March 17, 2009, 12:18:52 AM
Seattle PI publishes their last issue tomorrow.

:(

It is sad to see the oldest newspaper in Washington go out like this.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 17, 2009, 12:41:28 AM
Call me a heartless jerk, but the moaning and complaining the local media and politicos have been doing over this is rather pathetic. If the city really wanted the P-I that badly then there'd still be a market for it. Times change, get over it.

The horse whip industry isn't doing too well these day but that's just sort of how things go...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 17, 2009, 01:11:44 AM
Former Republican and current State Sen. Fred Jarrett (D-Mercer Island) is entering the race for King County Executive. No Republican has announced yet, although the post is "non-partisan".


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 17, 2009, 01:31:44 AM
haha, and dan savage is running for seattle mayor.  Oh boy.

Jarrett is a fascinating candidate who I do not think should be underballed.  What he lacks in charisma, he makes up for in being nearly perfect on paper.  Let's see which way "former Republican" plays in suburban City of Seattle.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 17, 2009, 02:14:59 AM
haha, and dan savage is running for seattle mayor.  Oh boy.

Holy sh*t, he actually is. I thought that post was a joke until I read the entire Slog entry. Awesome.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 17, 2009, 03:58:16 AM
Not sure how I missed this but the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is still alive - it passed out of the Senate by a 28-21 vote.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on March 17, 2009, 02:29:56 PM
haha, and dan savage is running for seattle mayor.  Oh boy.

Holy sh*t, he actually is. I thought that post was a joke until I read the entire Slog entry. Awesome.

I would so vote for him....if I lived in Seattle. :(

Definately. I love the Stranger.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 17, 2009, 03:17:43 PM
Marilyn Strickland just announced for Tacoma mayor.  I'm not even sure if she'll end up facing substantial opposition.  The only other announced candidate is architect Jim Merritt, a local do-gooder who I doubt has enough political cache, compared to Strickland.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 17, 2009, 05:38:15 PM
Too bad Savage's candidacy is such a joke. If he were serious, it would be really interesting.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 17, 2009, 08:11:17 PM
Julie Anderson doesn't want to run and last I heard neither does Tim Farrell. Things may have changed for him since the '08 county council results though...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 17, 2009, 10:15:41 PM
Issues? What are those? This is Tacoma Democratic politics: egos, money and unions! :D

Farrell is certainly ambitious enough but he's got some, er, personal issues. I won't go into them right here.

I agree that Strickland is probably the favorite no matter who runs though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 17, 2009, 10:33:36 PM
Issues? What are those? This is Tacoma Democratic politics: egos, money and unions! :D

I think that's Strickland's greatest risk.  She's never gotten "in" with the unions in town, from what I gather.  That having been said, attacking her on that won't be easy.  She's probably acceptable on all union issues.  If she had an Achilles' heel, it would be some grassroots "the teachers don't like her!" campaign.  That works great in Tacoma, appealing both to union people and North Tacoma bleeding-hearts.

Still, seems unlikely, and unless the race gets mean in an unpredictable way, I think she's probably in.

This is predictable, but as bad as expected: King County has a $50 million deficit (http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/archives/164409.asp?source=rss).  (That's actually not as bad as a lot of urban counties.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lunar on March 18, 2009, 01:44:39 AM

I forgot I posted that at 3:50 am.  Classic Lunar.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 18, 2009, 02:39:14 AM

I'm happy that your crap state has apparently removed its fat self from our time zone


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on March 22, 2009, 04:06:54 AM
Budget modification came out. Basically the state now has to cut hundreds of millions more than previously thought (this is the second or third time new numbers have come in and each time has shown revenues to get worse each time).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 22, 2009, 04:14:49 AM
^ It's only get to get worse in this dumb sales-tax-only state...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 23, 2009, 04:26:32 PM
Random fact: Washington has only had four State Auditors since 1905.

https://uselectionatlas.org/WIKI/index.php/State_Auditor_of_Washington


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 24, 2009, 06:45:09 PM
http://apps.leg.wa.gov/billinfo/summary.aspx?bill=2316&year=2009

Brendan Williams and company says "fuck you" to Boeing.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on March 24, 2009, 09:57:47 PM
^ It's only get to get worse in this dumb sales-tax-only state...

Do you think there is any chance in the near future (say next ten years) that we change over to a progressive tax system? I know it would take a constitutional amendment...
:(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 25, 2009, 02:52:21 AM
Didn't notice this before but there's an odd amendment attached to the all-mail voting bill.

Right now precincts can be no larger than 900 poll voters. The bill changes that requirement to no larger than 2000 active voters. Then, should a precinct grow to more than 2000 active voters at some point in between precinct redistricting, the county central committee of each major political party may, if they so choose, order that there be four PCO positions for that precinct. So <2000 active voters, 1 PCO. >2000 active voters, 4 PCO's.

Why? I have no idea.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 25, 2009, 03:20:37 AM
warning: Drunk posting!

Didn't notice this before but there's an odd amendment attached to the all-mail voting bill.

Right now precincts can be no larger than 900 poll voters. The bill changes that requirement to no larger than 2000 active voters. Then, should a precinct grow to more than 2000 active voters at some point in between precinct redistricting, the county central committee of each major political party may, if they so choose, order that there be four PCO positions for that precinct. So <2000 active voters, 1 PCO. >2000 active voters, 4 PCO's.

Why? I have no idea.

...poll voters?  Isn't that requirement kind of moot, now that they've forced a Pierce County conversion?  I'm assuming this, since PierceCo (and a few other counties) have way more than 900 RVs per precinct.

A 900 RV/precinct limit would be really nice, the 2000 limit is too Oregonian and I resent it, but even King County has some precincts nearing that size (one outside of Redmond, last time I checked)

Post-script: This is what I do when I'm drunk, what the hell?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 28, 2009, 08:58:56 PM
Puyallup plz


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on March 29, 2009, 03:01:12 PM
I always find it sad when a school levy fails.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 29, 2009, 10:13:39 PM
Possibly interesting SurveyUSA poll:

Do you think same-sex couples should be allowed to marry?

Should: 47%
Should Not: 51%

Should Washington State law treat domestic partnerships in the same way it treats marriages?

Yes: 58%
No: 36%

Do you think same-sex couples should be allowed to adopt children?

Should: 50%
Should Not: 45%

Cross-tabs look a little screwy though: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=fa0ea620-2f9f-4aaf-9ffa-478251370a9b


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on March 29, 2009, 11:02:20 PM
Possibly interesting SurveyUSA poll:

Do you think same-sex couples should be allowed to marry?

Should: 47%
Should Not: 51%

Should Washington State law treat domestic partnerships in the same way it treats marriages?

Yes: 58%
No: 36%

Do you think same-sex couples should be allowed to adopt children?

Should: 50%
Should Not: 45%

Cross-tabs look a little screwy though: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=fa0ea620-2f9f-4aaf-9ffa-478251370a9b

Why are males more pro-gay rights than women?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 30, 2009, 12:22:27 AM
The poll's internals are a bit strange. Eastern Washington is more pro-gay marriage than non-Seattle area Western Washington? eh.

White people approve 53-45, but Hispanics are 90% no? And Asians 83%? Although those two ethnic groups being against would not surprise me, I doubt it would be to that united against it.

Of course, the sub-samples are small. But if white people approve of it by an eight point margin, I suspect it would pass in a vote. And I agree that I highly doubt men truly approve of gay marriage more than women.

We would also need some context. I think the pro-side generally does a bit better if it's a vote to overturn gay marriage that has already been legalized by the courts or legislature.

In my opinion, I suspect Washington would vote in favor of gay marriage if there was a vote on it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 30, 2009, 05:37:11 AM
I agree, actually.  We haven't had a real statewide effort to legalize gay marriage formally.  In CA, Prop. 8's numbers steadily declined before leveling off.  I'd give an outright vote on gay marriage about 50/50 odds of passing WA.  I'd give a re-affirmation vote 2-to-1 odds.

Other interesting notes from the same polling round.

Sims approval ratings as KC Exec:

Approve 35%
Disapprove 51%

Greg Nickels approval:

Approve 39%
Disapprove 49%

Odd:  By a 59-30 margin, voters in Seattle say life is getting worse.  King County-wide, this number is 71-18.  Sucks to be in the suburbs, or weird sampling?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 30, 2009, 10:40:00 PM
Sims is a great county executive and I feel very lucky to have had him in control for the past 12 years. I hope he eventually ends up as the #1 over at HUD. I don't know of any politicians better for that job.

I don't quite understand the hate for Nickels, either. I would probably vote for him if I lived in Seattle.

Anyway, for the Exec race, I suspect a divided liberal/Seattle Dem vote will guarantee Jarrett a spot on the ballot in November... He's the perfect candidate for all of these Dem-trending suburbs (especially the Eastside), and considering there's a good chance there won't be any Repukes in the final round, I'm guessing Jarrett will utterly annihilate Constantine/Phillips in November.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 31, 2009, 03:20:34 AM
David Taylor was appointed earlier today to fill the State House seat of Dan Newhouse, now Director of the Washington State Department of Agriculture. Taylor is an "agricultural consultant" from some hellhole called Moxee.

Obama won the LD, but Democrats will be hard pressed to find a qualified candidate to run against Taylor this fall (much less beat him).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 31, 2009, 03:24:56 AM
I have never understood why Democrats suck in the 15th LD so much.  Klickitat and Skamania are ancestrally Democratic and are coming back to the fold.  It's increasingly Hispanic (Obama broke 50% in the Yakima County portion).  The white voters are working-class, and although they're quite conservative, Dukakis ran pretty well in some of these areas.

Maybe they shouldn't be winning at the LD level, but they should at least be able to field candidates that don't get their asses beaten.  Or am I crazy?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 31, 2009, 03:26:48 AM
There's no bench.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 31, 2009, 03:29:32 AM

And by "there's no bench"...does that possibly mean that there's a theoretical bench, but they're mostly mayors with inconveniently Hispanic surnames?  :P

I don't really understand where the GOP's bench comes from either; it's a weird district with no political center.  Then again, where are the Democrats going to go.  Mayor of White Salmon?  Yech, I see their problem.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 31, 2009, 03:39:28 AM
Everyone down there is involved in politics for one of three reasons: 1) They're farmers, 2) They're religious, or 3) They're Hispanic. The first two groups are Republicans and the third group isn't going to win the support of more than 40-45% of the district, so...

If we really tried I'm sure we could find some nice, middle-aged farmer type who was friendly with Hispanics. But no one in Olympia gives a flying f**ck about doing that.

Also, if one of those were to appear on their own, they're screwed. People down there associate the word "Democrat" with people like Christine Gregoire and Patty Murray and such. Our hypothetical "15th District Democrat" has no way to communicate his message to people that he's not like that. There's no fundraising base down there and, again, no one in Olympia gives a flying f**ck.

There are exceptions (the 8th District race and 14th District race this past year come to mind), but those were still pretty urban races. Rural races are anathema to the HDCC.

EDIT: I might want to add "Ron Paulites" to that first group of three. But that's a new development.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 31, 2009, 04:07:50 AM
Patty Murray hasn't done too horribly down there.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 31, 2009, 04:31:03 AM
Patty Murray hasn't done too horribly down there.

Yea, not the best example. I couldn't think up another name off the top of my head for "typical western Washington liberal Democrat" besides Gregoire.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 31, 2009, 04:52:05 AM
Patty Murray hasn't done too horribly down there.

Yea, not the best example. I couldn't think up another name off the top of my head for "typical western Washington liberal Democrat" besides Gregoire.

That's because they tend to like them just fine. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 31, 2009, 05:29:36 AM
http://horsesass.org/?p=14562

Wow... Geoff Simpson is awesome.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 31, 2009, 06:18:31 AM
http://horsesass.org/?p=14562

Wow... Geoff Simpson is awesome.

No, Geoff Simpson is just a loudmouth jerk who happens to be correct, and know how to copy-paste.  Google pretty much any portion of his response.

Nonetheless, it does take cojones.  I'll give him that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 31, 2009, 03:04:59 PM
http://horsesass.org/?p=14562

Wow... Geoff Simpson is awesome.

No, Geoff Simpson is just a loudmouth jerk who happens to be correct, and know how to copy-paste. 

Thanks, Moderate Hero

 
Quote
Google pretty much any portion of his response.

I can read the comments. And no, I don't expect Simpson to actually spend a ton of time researching and writing all of that himself to reply to some crazy biatch who doesn't even live in his district.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 31, 2009, 05:38:40 PM
I don't exactly know Puyallup that well, but I see no real patterns here.

()

There were some pretty strong victories (>60) but it all seems pretty randomish.  Maybe you see something else, Meeker?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 04, 2009, 11:33:27 PM
There might be a revolt next week amongst House Democrats re: Worker Privacy Act. Stay tuned...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 06, 2009, 07:02:33 PM
Is there even a remote chance Washington voters would approve an income tax?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 07, 2009, 01:34:19 AM
If it's just on the rich, maybe. If it's coupled with a sales tax reduction/elimination, maybe.

On the population as a whole on its own? No way.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 07, 2009, 01:39:31 AM
If it's just on the rich, maybe. If it's coupled with a sales tax reduction/elimination, maybe.

On the population as a whole on its own? No way.

It would be worth considering if it eliminated the state sales tax.

Otherwise it seems like a waste of time to discuss it. Not to mention political suicide for the Democrats for no good reason...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 07, 2009, 01:52:43 AM
If it's just on the rich, maybe. If it's coupled with a sales tax reduction/elimination, maybe.

On the population as a whole on its own? No way.

It would be worth considering if it eliminated the state sales tax.

Otherwise it seems like a waste of time to discuss it. Not to mention political suicide for the Democrats for no good reason...

I agree. Most Washingtonians would actually see a tax cut if we were to switch from a sales tax to an income tax.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: minionofmidas on April 07, 2009, 03:23:36 AM
How about a wealth tax instead?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 07, 2009, 04:22:41 AM
Something to keep in mind is that a lot of Brown's rhetoric in recent days and weeks could be routed in her 2012 desires. An income tax is pretty much DOA in the House (Chopp has no balls) and Brown may just be spouting off this income tax stuff to endear herself to the left-wing of the party.

Left-wing and progressives + Eastern Democrats + Sonntag and Inslee splitting the remaining Democratic vote = Brown in the general?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 10, 2009, 08:34:15 AM
Susan Hutchinson is running for King County Executive. lol.

Silly non-partisan rules mean a lot of people won't figure out she's a Republican (and a crazy one at that).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 10, 2009, 02:24:18 PM
The Republicans were going to find a sacrificial lamb sooner or later, I suppose...

Not convinced she'll make it past the primary, though. But Jarrett vs. Hutchison would be funny.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 10, 2009, 08:09:17 PM
I wouldn't be at all surprised if she finishes in third or even fourth.

Hopefully Pam Roach wants another bite at the apple.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 15, 2009, 11:57:41 PM
The State House just passed the National Popular Vote Compact 52-42 (it previously passed the Senate 28-21). It appears to have been amended in the House though, so back to the Senate it goes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on April 16, 2009, 12:42:27 AM
The State House just passed the National Popular Vote Compact 52-42 (it previously passed the Senate 28-21). It appears to have been amended in the House though, so back to the Senate it goes.

House crossover
Dems voting "no": Reuven Carlyle (D-Seattle), Laura Grant-Herriot (D-Walla Walla), Zak Hudgins (D-Tukwila), Ross Hunter (D-Medina), Tina Orwall (D-Normandy Park), Jamie Pedersen (D-Seattle), Sharon Tamiko Santos (D-Vashon Island) and Alex Wood (D-Spokane).

Pubbies voting "yes": None.

Pretty impressive that the Democrats can bleed lots of urban-core reps (I wonder why?) and still carry a vote by 10.

Can't find the House version.  The companion bill doesn't list a vote?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on April 16, 2009, 03:36:52 AM
Gay Marriage Except in Name is headed for Gregoire's signature.  The only Democrat to vote against it was Mark Miloscia (D-Federal Way).  The Republican co-sponsors, Maureen Walsh (R-College Place) and Norm Johnson (R-Yakima), both voted yes.  The Moderate Heroes apparently all fell in line on this'n, although I don't know who the two absent were.  Maybe Grant-Herriot decided to take a long lunch.

An announcement for a supposedly massive signature drive to land a repeal on the November ballot is expected tomorrow.  Assuming the drive isn't massively overstated, I look forward to the referendum going down in flames in November.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on April 16, 2009, 04:39:55 AM
Three-cent sales tax increase is down 51-41 in preliminary polling, which wasn't as bad as I expected but is still bad -- especially considering healthcare was specifically mentioned in the question.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8fc5c7d9-733b-410b-b762-79792b147e63

An earlier poll found a more extreme undercurrent of tax hostility:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=192b5d4e-ed0b-43ee-96d8-8a40dec2df39

By a 74-20 margin, voters said that balancing the budget by increasing taxes was a bad idea.

The second poll is a bit weird.  Saving 10,000 college spots makes 29% of Washingtonians LESS likely to vote for such an increase, and only 27% more likely; but preventing larger class sizes and teacher lay-offs encourages people to vote yes 34-25.  Polls, whatever.

Still, proposals like this tend to degrade, not improve in the polls, and ten points down is a bad place to start.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 16, 2009, 04:16:33 PM
The State House just passed the National Popular Vote Compact 52-42 (it previously passed the Senate 28-21). It appears to have been amended in the House though, so back to the Senate it goes.

House crossover
Dems voting "no": Reuven Carlyle (D-Seattle), Laura Grant-Herriot (D-Walla Walla), Zak Hudgins (D-Tukwila), Ross Hunter (D-Medina), Tina Orwall (D-Normandy Park), Jamie Pedersen (D-Seattle), Sharon Tamiko Santos (D-Vashon Island) and Alex Wood (D-Spokane).

Pubbies voting "yes": None.

Pretty impressive that the Democrats can bleed lots of urban-core reps (I wonder why?) and still carry a vote by 10.

Can't find the House version.  The companion bill doesn't list a vote?

Hudgins doesn't like the bill for a lot of logistical reasons (reasons that I completely agree with him on, FTR). All the Democrats that voted against it are his buddies (with the exception of Grant-Herriot who voted against it for other obvious reasons).

EDIT: It wasn't actually amended. Typo from last night.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on April 17, 2009, 08:43:14 PM
The last sentence makes this article.

Quote
MASON COUNTY, Wash. --  Mason County Commissioner Tim Sheldon said a budget crisis means the sheriff will have cut $382,000 from its budget which the sheriff said could mean up to five deputies yanked off the road.

The commissioner said he's confident Mason County residents can defend themselves from criminals if necessary.

"It's always open season on criminals in Mason County, and there is no bag limit," Sheldon said.

Sheriff's officials said they believe commissioners need to reconsider the cuts to the sheriff’s office and not condone vigilantes.

"We're just not a community of vigilantism, and no responsible politician is going to encourage vigilantism," said Dean Byrd of the Mason County Sheriff’s Office.

Sheldon said he's just warning criminals that people in Mason County have guns and know how to use them.

"You might expect a lead enema. I'm telling you, people in Mason County are fed up with crime. They know how to protect themselves," Sheldon said.

Residents don’t want to see any cuts to the sheriff’s office but said they are prepared to defend themselves if it comes to that.

"It's not a question of if you are going to have to but when you are going to have to," said Mason County resident Ron Adams.

Sheldon is also a state senator. Despite his comments, he said he does not want people to take the law into their own hands.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 17, 2009, 09:17:15 PM
State legislators can also hold a local office in Washington? I didn't think that kind of double-dipping was allowed outside of New Jersey.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 17, 2009, 09:51:12 PM
State legislators can also hold a local office in Washington? I didn't think that kind of double-dipping was allowed outside of New Jersey.

There was a Supreme Court case about it when he first got elected to both, and the court ruled that the only thing prohibited by state law was appearing on the same ballot twice. Since the County Commissioner elections are in presidential years and the State Senate elections are in mid-term years, Sheldon has no legal issues.

He's still the only one to do it/a douchebag/a DINO/I hate him.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 18, 2009, 05:00:05 AM
Jeanne Kohl-Welles (D-Seattle) has a bill relating to "protecting workers from human trafficking violations". It sailed through the Senate 46-0 and seemed like a fine bill to me at the time, but it barely passed the House today on a 50-48 vote. Anyone know what the hell happened?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on April 18, 2009, 09:10:56 PM
State legislators can also hold a local office in Washington? I didn't think that kind of double-dipping was allowed outside of New Jersey.

There was a Supreme Court case about it when he first got elected to both, and the court ruled that the only thing prohibited by state law was appearing on the same ballot twice. Since the County Commissioner elections are in presidential years and the State Senate elections are in mid-term years, Sheldon has no legal issues.

He's still the only one to do it/a douchebag/a DINO/I hate him.

I think I have more qualms with Sheldon than you do. He represents me... I hope that when there is redistricting Western Thurston county will not be in the 35th LD. That man needs to be taken out of the political arena.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 18, 2009, 11:58:20 PM
Ahh, here's that graph I was looking for:

()

Not to mention this report: http://www.itepnet.org/wp2000/wa%20pr.pdf

I'm tempted to vote against any sales tax increase...Not because I don't support a tax raise, but because the Democrats need to grow a pair and replace it with an income tax.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on April 19, 2009, 12:43:25 AM
Ahh, here's that graph I was looking for:

()

Not to mention this report: http://www.itepnet.org/wp2000/wa%20pr.pdf

I'm tempted to vote against any sales tax increase...Not because I don't support a tax raise, but because the Democrats need to grow a pair and replace it with an income tax.

but what if Bill Gates moves away... tear...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 19, 2009, 01:16:46 AM
Ahh, here's that graph I was looking for:

()

Not to mention this report: http://www.itepnet.org/wp2000/wa%20pr.pdf

I'm tempted to vote against any sales tax increase...Not because I don't support a tax raise, but because the Democrats need to grow a pair and replace it with an income tax.

Yup, Washington is the most regressive state. Notice the lack of an income tax (which isn't unique).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 19, 2009, 01:18:29 AM
but what if Bill Gates moves away... tear...

Interestingly enough, Gates' father has been one of the biggest proponents of an income tax.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on April 19, 2009, 04:12:38 PM
but what if Bill Gates moves away... tear...

Interestingly enough, Gates' father has been one of the biggest proponents of an income tax.

Yep, I actually don't think Gates would have too much of a problem with it. If anything he would simply change residency but still live in Washington. The state really wouldn't lose much though because his operations and a lot of his spending would still be here.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on April 20, 2009, 05:45:16 PM
Haha sighh.  Democrats: WA-8 fail.  I think I'm going to start referring to Suzan DelBene as "Windows ME."  Or "Darcy Burner ME."  Or something.  I'm working on it!

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2009086085_delbene20m.html

(Bold to emphasize the funniest part)

Quote
Reichert's new challenger Suzan DelBene sat out several elections
Suzan DelBene, a Democrat who plans to challenge U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert in the 8th Congressional District, has raised $314,000 for her first political run. The former Microsoft vice president also skipped voting in nine elections in the past five years.

...

There's one notable difference, though, between Burner and DelBene. Burner voted in every primary, general and special election since 2000, according to King County Elections. DelBene did not cast a ballot in nine elections in the last five years. (Reichert has just one blemish; his absentee ballot for the 2007 primary was postmarked after Election Day making it invalid, according to King County Elections.)

As first reported by The Stranger's blog, DelBene failed to vote in last year's Democratic presidential primary and sat out November elections in 2005 and 2006 — neglecting to vote for Burner in a relatively close race in 2006.

"I'm not perfect, and I regret that I don't have a perfect voting record," DelBene, 47, said.

How will she persuade voters to elect her if she hasn't bothered to mark a ballot in important elections? "I bring a variety of things to the table, and you have to look at the total package and what people can do," she said.

...

Despite their similar paths to politics, DelBene said she's not a Burner clone. While Burner was a midlevel manager at Microsoft, DelBene was corporate vice president for mobile communications.

...

Bonus materials:  Super-awkward interview with a notably unenthusiastic Stranger (http://www.thestranger.com/seattle/try-try-again/Content?oid=1220631).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 20, 2009, 05:48:49 PM
Yeah, I saw that... :(

REAL CANDIDATE, PLZ


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on April 21, 2009, 09:28:56 PM
Ugh... while I liked Darcy Burner it is time for a new candidate. I still don't see how she lost so closely twice in a row. WA-08 has trended democratic enough that we really should not be having all these problems defeating Reichart, though he has been very clever in how he has positioned and portrayed himself.

Oh and by the way there were about 4,500 protesters at the Olympia Tea-Party protest. That ranks amoung the highest in the nation. So listen up US! Washington has its fair share of conservative crazies too!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 23, 2009, 10:53:56 PM
I think I need to move:

http://www.komonews.com/news/local/43491772.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 24, 2009, 12:27:39 AM
I think I need to move:

http://www.komonews.com/news/local/43491772.html

Why do our municipal governments always seem to attract filth?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 24, 2009, 12:57:25 AM
I think I need to move:

http://www.komonews.com/news/local/43491772.html

Why do our municipal governments always seem to attract filth?

You think he's annoying, too? I don't actually know anything about his politics, to be honest. I didn't even know he lived here.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on April 24, 2009, 01:55:59 AM
Why do you guys not like him? I have always liked Evening Magazine, and besides him being the host of the show has nothing to do with how good of a councilman he would be. He could be amazing... or horrible we don't really know until we get more info.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on April 24, 2009, 03:10:00 AM
Does Curley have secret Nazi regalia in his basement?  Evening Magazine is fluff sure, but I don't find him all that annoying, and he doesn't scream "pure evil" to me in any way.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 24, 2009, 03:44:36 AM
Does Curley have secret Nazi regalia in his basement?  Evening Magazine is fluff sure, but I don't find him all that annoying, and he doesn't scream "pure evil" to me in any way.

Nazi regalia? Pure evil?

Did I miss something?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on April 24, 2009, 03:53:06 AM
Does Curley have secret Nazi regalia in his basement?  Evening Magazine is fluff sure, but I don't find him all that annoying, and he doesn't scream "pure evil" to me in any way.

Nazi regalia? Pure evil?

Did I miss something?

I figured he had some Hutchinsonian open-secret political views that might prompt Meeker's "filth" comment :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 26, 2009, 10:53:27 PM
It just occurred to me that I'd never actually heard Cheryl Pflug speak. I just did.

Oh my is all I have to say to her.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 26, 2009, 11:43:03 PM
Owen just had to break a tie on final passage. Extremely uncommon these days (even more so considering the body has an odd number of members).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 27, 2009, 02:01:41 AM
OH NOES! It's 12:01 and the Legislature hasn't adjourned!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 27, 2009, 02:28:12 AM
Still haven't Sine Die-ed. No idea what's holding them up; TVW cut away and is running promotional crap.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 27, 2009, 02:39:47 AM
Apparently there's an actual problem. From The Olympian:

Quote
Democrats ran out of time in the House to pass a levy lid bill that would let local school districts raise extra funds if voters approve.

And Gov. Chris Gregoire is huddling with House Speaker Frank Chopp and Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown on what to do.

They might need House Bill 1776, according to budget director Victor Moore, because it contains language that allows a cut of $60 million in levy equalization money that the majority Democrats' budget calls for.

It also appears they need SB 6138, which suspends a couple of school initiatives, Rep. Tom Campbell just said to me.

"We don't know if we are calling a special session or not," Gregoire spokesman Pearse Edwards said.

For all the confusion, lawmakers did get the major work completed. The Senate approved the capital budget, sending it to the governor. That means she has all three major budgets for construction, operations and transportation.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 27, 2009, 02:41:06 AM
Joe Turner from the News Tribune chimes in:

Quote
The governor just announced she would meet soon with legislative leaders to decide when to call lawmakers back into special session.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 27, 2009, 02:44:06 AM
Seattle Times homepage headline:

Quote
More to come: Washington Legislature runs out of time, Gov. Chris Gregoire calls special session.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 27, 2009, 02:46:31 AM
News Tribune again:

Quote
Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown, D-Spokane, just told reporters that Gov. Chris Gregoire will "speak to legislative leader in the next couple of days" to see when they should come back. All the main budget bills are done, but there are a few other bills "necessary to implement the budget."

"We may come back for a very short session to implemeent these bills necessary for the budget," Brown said.

Later this week?

"Could be," she said.

I'm done tonight. More tomorrow. It's now 12:40 a.m.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 27, 2009, 10:19:20 PM
Gregoire to sign the National Popular Vote Compact tomorrow.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on April 27, 2009, 10:21:37 PM
Gregoire to sign the National Popular Vote Compact tomorrow.

And where's the budget?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 28, 2009, 12:05:05 AM
Gregoire to sign the National Popular Vote Compact tomorrow.

And where's the budget?

Her office is looking over all three... she'll probably veto minor sections in each but she'll sign the vast majority of it into law sometime in mid-May.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 29, 2009, 03:05:36 AM
Rep. Ross Hunter (D-Bellevue) has announced he's running for King County Executive.

So the candidates are now three Democrats, a Republican-turned-Democrat, and Susan Hutchinson? Am I missing anyone?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on April 29, 2009, 03:17:10 AM
My count is Constantine, Hunter, Hutchison, Jarrett and Phillips.

I frankly don't know much to differentiate Constantine and Phillips, but isn't Hunter supposed to be pretty smart?  I can't imagine he won't split the vote with Jarrett.  I truly have no idea who would win this field, but my bet is that the King County Democrats will crack the whip some.

P.S. Seattle Times stop calling Hutchison an "eastside" candidate thanks


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 29, 2009, 04:00:43 AM
Hunter's very smart. Smarter than Jarrett for sure. Don't really know Constantine and Phillips well enough to make a judgment call though.

And of course they're all smarter than Hutchison. But so is officepark.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 29, 2009, 01:19:48 PM
Bleh, can't one of them run for Congress...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 29, 2009, 03:12:39 PM
Bleh, can't one of them run for Congress...

The upside for this race, at least for Jarrett and Hunter, is that they don't have to give up their seat in the Legislature to do it. Congress isn't so much the case (although Jarrett could do it in 2010 without risking his seat...)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on April 29, 2009, 05:56:30 PM
One of the three remaining San Juan County Republicans has filed an initiative to repeal the National Popular Vote compact.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2009146605_webreferendum29.html

The guy doesn't have any history of initiative success, and Shaw Island seems like an awkward place to run an initiative drive from, so I can't imagine he'll get very far.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on April 30, 2009, 02:23:38 PM
Washington has had its first 6 cases of Swine Flu:
http://www.examiner.com/x-5218-Seattle-North-American-Travel-Examiner~y2009m4d29-Three-probable-cases-of-swine-flu-identified-in-Seattle-Washington-State

Let the panic and then looting begin!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 01, 2009, 12:14:31 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fsgP_Ld4qB8

oh geez.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 01, 2009, 12:24:02 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fsgP_Ld4qB8

oh geez.

Umm...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 01, 2009, 12:30:50 AM
I get the feeling he'll be using the city council as a spring board for higher office. I wonder what party he'll go with...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 01, 2009, 12:31:27 AM
ooh, 1000th post!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on May 04, 2009, 02:25:46 PM
Washington state politicians aren't very good at voting

http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/politicsnorthwest/2009/05/04/seattle_mayoral_candidates_les.html

Quote
Publicola has a post this morning about the spotty voting record of Seattle's newest mayoral candidate, T-Mobile executive Joseph Mallahan. He has missed six of 18 elections since 2000, including the 2007 general election, when Seattle elected five new City Council members.

But he's not the only mayoral candidate with a less-than-perfect record, according to King County Elections.

Former Sonic James Donaldson did not vote at all from 2004 to mid-2007. He missed eight consecutive elections. Since then, he's missed only last year's presidential primary. That was commonly skipped among Democrats because so much was decided in the caucus process.

Norman Sigler, a corporate recruiter and professional matchmaker, missed the recent February vote on a new King County elections director. He also sat out the 2008 primary and 2007 school-levy renewal election. And he missed the primary in 2007 that whittled down big fields in several Seattle City Council and School Board races.

Former Sierra Club Chairman Michael McGinn has missed only a couple elections in the last decade, but he's been a big critic of the Seattle school district during his campaign, so it's notable that he didn't vote in the February 2007 that renewed the district's capital and operating bonds.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on May 05, 2009, 02:25:11 AM
Apparently there are rumors that Gregoire could possibly be under consideration for the Supreme Court position. Personally I would like the national attention but in reality it would be horrible to have Owens as our governor. He would replace Gregoire if she left, right?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 05, 2009, 02:54:15 AM
Apparently there are rumors that Gregoire could possibly be under consideration for the Supreme Court position. Personally I would like the national attention but in reality it would be horrible to have Owens as our governor. He would replace Gregoire if she left, right?

Oh, I saw something about that, too. Highly doubt it will happen, though.

But yes, Owens would become Governor under such circumstances.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 05, 2009, 02:57:08 AM
I'd be shocked if it were to happen. If he wants a woman there are many better options.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Badger on May 05, 2009, 04:06:57 AM
I'd be shocked if it were to happen. If he wants a woman there are many better options.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on May 05, 2009, 01:01:38 PM
Just how conservative is Lt. Gov. Brad Owens?  I always heard him talked about as a 'conservative Democrat', but what does that really mean in Washington state's context?  Is this primarily in reference to being 'pro-business', or what?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 05, 2009, 01:10:00 PM
Just how conservative is Lt. Gov. Brad Owens?  I always heard him talked about as a 'conservative Democrat', but what does that really mean in Washington state's context?  Is this primarily in reference to being 'pro-business', or what?

Eh, he's probably best known for opposing medical marijuana.

But personally, I think the dislike for Owen has less to do with his supposed conservatism and much more with his rampant douchebaggery, but that's just  me.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/otherlocalelectionstories/2008312163_owen26m.html

"He's been traveling around the state with his idiotic rock band, torturing middle-schoolers and high-schoolers"


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on May 05, 2009, 03:57:43 PM
Just how conservative is Lt. Gov. Brad Owens?  I always heard him talked about as a 'conservative Democrat', but what does that really mean in Washington state's context?  Is this primarily in reference to being 'pro-business', or what?

Being generally pro-business isn't a big deal in Washington state.  In the legislature it might challenge the Democrats' orthodoxy a bit too much.  But on the whole, Washington is a free-trade state.  We're full of well-off Democrats (even in Seattle) who like the idea of "trade" itself.

Owen's conservatism is more kind of an annoying anti-intellectual traditionalism.  He opposes gay marriage and marijuana decriminalization -- although really he has no idea why.  He's the sort of politician who's satisfied with "DARE sez" with no curiosity about the science or anything.  It's a Moderate Hero sort of thing -- a mix of emotionality and "it's centrist" to frame most of his positions.  And then he dedicates a lot of time to them, especially the anti-marijuana stuff.  He's amiable and reasonably effective but not especially useful.  I would not want him as Governor; he'd probably get steamrolled.

Plus, his rock band is kinda bad :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 05, 2009, 04:55:01 PM
He's also an idiot.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on May 05, 2009, 05:31:51 PM


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on May 06, 2009, 02:20:20 AM
Um, so news!

Larry Stickney's group has filed an initiative to repeal the domestic partnership law.  Apparently, Pastor Joe Fuiten is already getting queasy after seeing some allegedly terrible polling numbers.  At this point, many social conservatives are hoping this thing doesn't make the ballot.  It's a hopeless cause.  I haven't seen a public poll, but I've heard things as bad as 2-to-1.

Fred Jarrett's campaign has released a poll for King County Executive:

Undecided 59%
Hutchison 20% ("Hutchinson" in the poll text, ouch)
Jarrett 7%
Constantine 6%
Phillips 5%
Hunter 3%

's all I got.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 06, 2009, 02:56:22 AM
Um, so news!

Larry Stickney's group has filed an initiative to repeal the domestic partnership law.  Apparently, Pastor Joe Fuiten is already getting queasy after seeing some allegedly terrible polling numbers.  At this point, many social conservatives are hoping this thing doesn't make the ballot.  It's a hopeless cause.  I haven't seen a public poll, but I've heard things as bad as 2-to-1.

Fred Jarrett's campaign has released a poll for King County Executive:

Undecided 59%
Hutchison 20% ("Hutchinson" in the poll text, ouch)
Jarrett 7%
Constantine 6%
Phillips 5%
Hunter 3%

's all I got.

Do you think her 20%  is primarily because she has name recognition from being on TV?

Although, I suppose the vote not being split 4 ways like the Democrats probably also helps, too.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 06, 2009, 03:03:54 AM
Egads. Hopefully everyone figures out who the Democrats are... damn non-partisan races.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on May 06, 2009, 03:14:52 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGo11tMoGw0

Holy sh**t you guys, your fundies are freaks.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on May 06, 2009, 10:05:10 PM
To be fair, most of the fundie community leaders in Washington consider this to be a completely lost cause.  They're getting mutilated in the polls and the news spin is awful (http://blog.oregonlive.com/mapesonpolitics/2009/05/wa_domestic_partner_foes_may_t.html).  At this point there's a growing cloud-of-doom feeling among the Christian right here.  It may be that a massive initiative failure will just expedite the march toward gay marriage.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on May 10, 2009, 10:02:49 PM
To be fair, most of the fundie community leaders in Washington consider this to be a completely lost cause.  They're getting mutilated in the polls and the news spin is awful (http://blog.oregonlive.com/mapesonpolitics/2009/05/wa_domestic_partner_foes_may_t.html).  At this point there's a growing cloud-of-doom feeling among the Christian right here.  It may be that a massive initiative failure will just expedite the march toward gay marriage.

I tend to agree. If the public overwhemingly votes to keep strengthened civil unions then it might send a message to the legislature that its ok to have outright gay marraige or it might even be possible to get it passed as a ballot measure. Personally I think Washington is ready and willing.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on May 18, 2009, 04:17:31 PM
Gregoire wants to see a bill on her desk. (http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2009/05/18/a-few-questions-for-the-governor) No specifics, just wants to see a bill on her desk.

Hello!?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 18, 2009, 08:25:58 PM
I've heard her give a similar answer several times before. It's clear to me she'll sign the bill but there's no point in risking anything politically by saying she'd sign it before she does it.

Frank Chopp is probably too terrified to bring it up for a vote until at least 2011 though - and that's only if the 2010 elections go well for his caucus.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 22, 2009, 02:48:26 PM
The first patient to utilize the Death with Dignity law passed away last night - a 66-year-old Sequim woman who had stage 4 pancreatic cancer.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Badger on May 22, 2009, 03:16:31 PM
The first patient to utilize the Death with Dignity law passed away last night - a 66-year-old Sequim woman who had stage 4 pancreatic cancer.

R.I.P.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 26, 2009, 03:41:04 PM
Pierce County Councilmember Dick Muri (R-Steilacoom) has announced that he intends to run against Rep. Adam Smith. Earlier State Rep. Tom Campbell (R-Roy) announced that he was running against Smith as well.

Both will get crushed, but what's with two not-complete-joke candidates running against Smith? Smith hasn't faced anything but gadfly candidates since he beat Tate in 1996 IIRC.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 26, 2009, 11:09:03 PM
^eh, Chris Vance was a King County Councilman when he ran against Smith (in 2000 I think), or at least had been one recently IIRC. Still only got 35% of the vote, though! haha.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 01, 2009, 12:31:09 PM
It's filing week! Around half of all those fun city council, school board, park district, water district, fire district, etc., etc. seats are up for election this year, and the random nobodies who run our municipal governments have until Friday to indulge in their quad-yearly civic masturbation file for office.

Some counties also do their elections on the off-years, most notably King County (now featuring Super-Fair-and-Awesome-Non-Partisan™ ballot labels!) There's a special election in Pierce County for County Auditor that will probably be the last IRV election in Washington State for quite some time (voters in November have the opportunity to, and almost certainly will, ditch IRV for county offices).

Special elections also occurring for State House seats in the 9th, 15th and 16th LD's.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 02, 2009, 10:21:35 PM
Mike Fagan is running for Spokane City Council. Curious...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 04, 2009, 12:02:00 PM
Krist Novoselic is running for Wahkiakum County Clerk. "Prefers Grange Party"


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 04, 2009, 05:36:00 PM
A man named "David C Roberts (Dave)" is running in the 16th LD special election. "Prefers ReganIndependent Party" (he's only allowed 16 letters and ReaganIndependent is 17).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 04, 2009, 11:31:30 PM
Krist Novoselic is running for Wahkiakum County Clerk. "Prefers Grange Party"

I wish he had challenged Owen. Oh well, perhaps he (correctly) figures he needs to start small for anyone to take him seriously.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 05, 2009, 04:02:21 PM
http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13788607&fsrc=rss

I think I might be sick...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 07, 2009, 10:44:34 PM
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=cd8c0ab8-ab65-4767-a525-bb41fac2daf8

Nickels approval stands at 31-56.  Individual issues:

Law enforcement: 55-55
City services: 34-57
City parks: 53-36

Quality of life 57-28 getting worse
Traffic 79-13 getting worse


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 08, 2009, 06:16:30 PM
...oh, and:

25% Mayor Greg Nickels
17% City Councilwoman Jan Drago
9% Ex-Sonic James Donaldson
7% Sierra Club Guy Michael McGinn
6% T-Mobile Guy Joe Mallahan
3% Tunnel-Hater Elizabeth Campbell
2% Unreachable and undocumented SWP member Mary Juanita Martin
1% "Executive specialist"/Mary-Juanita-Martin-loser-to Norman Sigler


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 08, 2009, 06:50:29 PM
McGinn is behind Donaldson? Ouch


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 09, 2009, 02:56:48 AM
I like how the Democratic candidate for Dist 16 Pos 2 lists his mailing address as Idaho.  Lewiston is only, what, 300 miles from his "legal residence" in White Salmon?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on June 09, 2009, 05:00:24 AM
http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13788607&fsrc=rss

I think I might be sick...

I like our primary system, but calling Washington centrist just seems wrong. People need to remember that there used to be the saying: "the 47 states and the soviet of Washington"


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 09, 2009, 10:00:16 AM
I like how the Democratic candidate for Dist 16 Pos 2 lists his mailing address as Idaho.  Lewiston is only, what, 300 miles from his "legal residence" in White Salmon?

Hahahaha, I hadn't even noticed that. Excellent.

District 15, btw


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 11, 2009, 12:27:24 AM
Even worse of a candidate than I expected.

Quote
Hutchison: 'I don't have to say anything' to voters

Susan Hutchison, the front runner in the race for King County executive, fired back at County Councilman Dow Constantine Wednesday afternoon after he said she's too conservative for local voters and ducking an honest debate.

In a telephone interview with seattlepi.com Hutchison called Constantine a liar.

"This is inexcusable. In sum total he's accused me of being an extremist and I'm a moderate."

At a news conference Wednesday Constantine said Hutchison was against abortion, reportedly supports the teaching of creationism in public schools and has contributed to the campaigns of Republicans like George Bush and Mike Huckabee.

When asked what Constantine was lying about - specifically about abortion - Hutchison said she wouldn't talk about specific issues not germane to King County politics.

"They fall in the categories of lies," Hutchison said. "The guy doesn't know me, he's never met me. I'm not going to get specific any more than he would if he (was similarly questioned)....Why would a guy who's never even known me start accusing me of these extreme statements."

Hutchison said Constantine was himself ducking the fact that King County was in horrible shape, facing a $50 million budget deficit because of the poor management by people like Constantine.

"He's doing this to take the heat away," she said, "from the mess this county is in. It's a Hail Mary on his part."

Hutchison was asked what she would say to the voters to demonstrate that she is a moderate.

"I don't have to say anything to the voters," said Hutchison, a long-time local television personality. "They've known me for 20 years on the air. They've known me for another seven years as someone who has served in the community."

Hutchison said she's served on numerous boards and commissions and was never questioned about her views on social issues.

Constantine was pressed at his news conference why issues like abortion - which is a state issue - should be a part of the county executive's race. He was asked what specific, germane question he would ask Hutchison if given the opportunity. He responded: "Would you vote to hold the line on the urban growth boundary. Would you vote to stop development outside of our urban areas, except on a rural scale. And that's a critical issue with which we're faced every year as land speculators seek to move that boundary and gobble up our farm and forest land for more and more suburban development."

When asked about growth management issues Hutchison said "what I will do in King County is manage growth by bringing all the factions together. That is what I will do."

The question of whether a candidate is liberal or conservative has changed in county-wide races. That's because voters recently passed an initiative that ostensibly makes such offices nonpartisan - there's no "D" or "R" next to candidates' names.

Constantine, County Councilman Larry Phillips and state lawmakers Fred Jarrett and Ross Hunter are all elected Democrats who have long public records. Hutchison is running for office for the first time.

Susan Hutchison:  She doesn't lie about that one thing, and you know her from TV.  (Also no "N"!)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 11, 2009, 12:40:37 AM
Has anyone ever seen Hutchison and Pam Roach in the same place at the same time? I have a theory.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 12, 2009, 01:43:33 PM
King County Executive: Cash raised/Cash on Hand

Larry Phillips: $346K/$209K
Dow Constantine: $238K/$166K
Susan Hutchison: $124K/$95K
Ross Hunter: $117K/$112K
Fred Jarrett: $50K/$8K (Ouch)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on June 12, 2009, 06:13:08 PM
What do you guys think of this Washington with 10 districts map?

()

I know the Vancouver-Yakima district would be annoying because likely it would be republican (though Baird may be able to hold it, after all it doesn't include much of conservative Lewis county any more). The 5th district would be more competitive, while the 8th probably more democratic, I am not sure about the rest.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 12, 2009, 06:15:45 PM
It's alright I suppose. I wish we had 2010 numbers to play with!

Here's a 9 district map I made yesterday:

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on June 12, 2009, 06:20:14 PM
It's alright I suppose. I wish we had 2010 numbers to play with!

Here's a 9 district map I made yesterday:

()

Ewww... Somehow I end up in a district that attaches to the tri-cities eventhough I live in Olympia.

Is this a Gerrymander map or simply using every mountain pass you can to attach areas?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 12, 2009, 06:24:05 PM
It's a Democratic gerrymander, of course. It's intended to have 8 Democrats and 1 Republican (in the red district).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 15, 2009, 03:11:11 AM
CK -- Cool map.  Aesthetically pleasing, too.

Baird could hold that district in a walk, but it would be extremely competitive.  Hard to tell how much of Yakima you put in, but Obama actually narrowly won the 15th LD -- South Yakima is a competitive area because of the Hispanic and Native population, and the Clark County portion is the only bedrock GOP area.  If you take Yakima City without its suburbs, you've still got an easy Baird victory.  The dude racks it up in even Lewis County -- he'd manage.

I like your setup around the Sound.  It makes the 8th actually cohesive, and gets rid of exurban Pierce hickland to the 9th (which is a lost cause for cohesive anyway).  On the other hand, I think its biggest weakness is the 6th -- Vashon+Tacoma+Centralia, now there's a district.

Kind of hard to tell without a zoom-in around Lake Washington (Yakima would be nice too), but Reichert would probably be the last GOP congressman from the 8th unless things turn around.

Also, you put Dicks and Inslee in the same district.  Not sure if that's fixable.  Although Inslee does have a record or not minding moves, and who wants to live in Belfair anyway? :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 18, 2009, 01:00:21 AM
Chris Hurst won't run for WA-8 (http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2009/06/17/hurst-wont-seek-8th-district-congressional-seat), denies that Suzan DelBene is a "Darcy Burner" trainwreck, and clearly wants someone else anyway.

McDermott starts a Public Works employment project for the completely guano batsh**t (http://www.politico.com/blogs/anneschroeder/0609/No_namecalling.html?showall).

Referendum 71 is now one percent more screwed (http://www.theolympian.com/politicsblog/story/883548.html).

Goldy should really stop "analyzing" poll numbers (http://horsesass.org/?p=17090) and go back to talking about seltzer or whatever (http://horsesass.org/?p=17085).

On the other side of the fence, why has Sound Politics turned into just being sporadic posts about Shawna Forde (http://soundpolitics.com/archives/013016.html)?  Why (now that she's apparently shot people) are they blogging about Shawna Forde at all?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 18, 2009, 06:31:36 AM
Gee, I can't believe I'm on top of the Krist Novoselic story before you guys. He's dropped out:

http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2009/06/former_nirvana_bassist_now_for.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 24, 2009, 07:25:03 PM
Uh, huh:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=24aea2b0-ebf6-4c88-bcc8-0d8f5f8bc1b0

Hutchison 41%
Constantine 12%
Phillips 7%
Hunter 6%
Jarrett 4%
Goodspaceguy 3%
Lippmann 2%
Lobdell 2%
Undecided 23%

Way to go on this one, King County Democrats.

In other news: Will anyone really miss Kent? (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2009376179_leakingdam24m.html)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 24, 2009, 08:32:45 PM
Eh, they'll rally behind whomever comes in second. It's the highest profile race in the state this year (except maybe Seattle Mayor) so it's not like Hutchison is going to be able to sneak in under the radar.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 24, 2009, 11:42:47 PM
Uh, huh:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=24aea2b0-ebf6-4c88-bcc8-0d8f5f8bc1b0

Hutchison 41%
Constantine 12%
Phillips 7%
Hunter 6%
Jarrett 4%
Goodspaceguy 3%
Lippmann 2%
Lobdell 2%
Undecided 23%

Way to go on this one, King County Democrats.

In other news: Will anyone really miss Kent? (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2009376179_leakingdam24m.html)

That is incredibly disturbing.

I still haven't decided who I will vote for in the primary, though I suspect it will be one of the Eastsiders.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on June 26, 2009, 12:13:12 AM
My prediction is that Hutchison will win the primary with flying colors and then she will lose badly in the general election.  Name recognition is a powerful advantage, particularly in a multi-candidate field.  Having multiple candidates in the race gives her more cover to duck specific questions about her record, which is what she has been doing.  She has only shown up to one or two candidate forums and appears to be running scared.

In the general election, there won't be anywhere to hide.

As an aside, the KC Executive race is illustrative of why I think the decision to make county races "nonpartisan" was a sham. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 26, 2009, 12:14:52 AM
My prediction is that Hutchison will win the primary with flying colors and then she will lose badly in the general election.  Name recognition is a powerful advantage, particularly in a multi-candidate field.  Having multiple candidates in the race gives her more cover to duck specific questions about her record, which is what she has been doing.  She has only shown up to one or two candidate forums and appears to be running scared.

In the general election, there won't be anywhere to hide.

As an aside, the KC Executive race is illustrative of why I think the decision to make county races "nonpartisan" was a sham. 

^^^

All it does is reduce information given to voters; it does nothing to reduce partisanship.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on June 26, 2009, 01:41:38 AM
Well, I do know that people who would normally vote only for a Democrat like my mother, would probably vote for the person with the most name recognition, even if she does her research. Of course we live in Fred Jarrett's district and we don't watch KIRO (is that her station?), so I'm guessing name recognition won't help in our house.

It'll be interesting to see what happens as we get much closer to the election date.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 26, 2009, 01:55:03 AM
I really have no idea who to support.

I'll probably go with the most pro-transit, anti-sprawl, pro-density environmentalist candidate. I just haven't determined who that is yet... :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 26, 2009, 04:56:48 PM
Seattle poll:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9b5e3974-aa50-4f8f-a325-b1109b0e187a

Mayor
24% Nickels
15% Drago
14% Donaldson

Bag Tax
47% Yes
46% No

I'm rooting for Nickels at the moment... In other interesting news, 12% of Seattleites consider themselves Republicans. GTFO, plz. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on July 11, 2009, 09:05:57 PM
So... when is the King county executive primary?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 11, 2009, 09:08:14 PM
So... when is the King county executive primary?

August 18th. Ballots are mailed July 29th.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 15, 2009, 02:21:15 PM
Washington hasn't elected a Democrat Secretary of State since 1960. Weird...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 15, 2009, 02:25:36 PM
Washington hasn't elected a Democrat Secretary of State since 1960. Weird...

Are you looking at those pages I made on the Wiki?

Well, we haven't elected a Republican State Auditor since 1928... so we win.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 15, 2009, 02:31:55 PM
Are you looking at those pages I made on the Wiki?

No, just Sam Reed's website. Apparently the guy before Ralph Munro runs the Discovery Institute now :(

Well, we haven't elected a Republican State Auditor since 1928... so we win.

:D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on July 15, 2009, 03:13:01 PM
Does anyone know the current status of Ref. 71's sig gathering quest?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on July 15, 2009, 04:25:23 PM
Yes, they claimed a few days ago that they have 75k. I don't believe that though.

Although they've been claiming that this is a same-sex marriage bill, priests will go to jail etc etc.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 16, 2009, 05:57:15 PM
Does anyone know the current status of Ref. 71's sig gathering quest?

They're either scrambling or doing just dandy, depending on how much you trust Gary Randall's report of drastically increased sign rates.

They claimed to have 75,000 signatures on July 11th.  They also claim to be receiving 8,000 a day, which seems a little unlikely if they've only managed 75k so far.  They need about 120,000 signatures by July 25th to qualify.  At 8,000 a day, they'd have 179,000 by the 25th.  More specifically, they'd need a little bit under 3,500 per day to qualify.

I tend to suspect that they're liar faces, although a >129% overstatement would be an impressive lie.  Reports are that they're peddling the whole thing as pro-gay rights (since it will be on the ballot, technically) and getting signatures on Queen Anne Hill.  Who knows, though.

Eyman's latest initiative (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2009479207_eyman16.html) is on the ballot for sure, by the way.  No one else is trying.  I can't remember the last time we had so little initiative activity in a General election.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 20, 2009, 05:38:01 PM
R-71 petitioners say they'll submit signatures on Saturday.  Won't say how many they have now.  They've heavily been hitting up church congregations and -- Meeker totally called it -- Wal-Mart.

Also, for anyone in the Tacoma/University Place area, MISSED OPPORTUNITY (http://seattle.craigslist.org/tac/pol/1279945571.html).  And he was wearing camo, too :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on July 20, 2009, 05:39:00 PM
I'm willing to wager anyone that they don't even have enough. This was all a ploy to get some money into Gary Randall's pockets.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 20, 2009, 06:27:27 PM
R-71 petitioners say they'll submit signatures on Saturday.  Won't say how many they have now.  They've heavily been hitting up church congregations and -- Meeker totally called it -- Wal-Mart.

Also, for anyone in the Tacoma/University Place area, MISSED OPPORTUNITY (http://seattle.craigslist.org/tac/pol/1279945571.html).  And he was wearing camo, too :(

Don't worry, he's coming back: http://seattle.craigslist.org/tac/pol/1280199122.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 20, 2009, 07:46:10 PM
R-71 petitioners say they'll submit signatures on Saturday.  Won't say how many they have now.  They've heavily been hitting up church congregations and -- Meeker totally called it -- Wal-Mart.

Also, for anyone in the Tacoma/University Place area, MISSED OPPORTUNITY (http://seattle.craigslist.org/tac/pol/1279945571.html).  And he was wearing camo, too :(

Don't worry, he's coming back: http://seattle.craigslist.org/tac/pol/1280199122.html

And apparently won't be changing his pants.

Or maybe his closet is full of them.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 24, 2009, 02:52:07 PM
Gary Randall says that Referendum 71 is "too close to call" (read: totally screwed)

http://referendum71.blogspot.com/2009/07/r-71-too-close-to-call.html

Quote
R-71 petition signature gathering count is too close to call, so we are asking for your help in making one last push.

We feel that by tomorrow morning we will have the 120,577 signatures required, however we also know that some will be invalidated for various reasons. We do not have an adequate cushion of signatures.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 24, 2009, 03:01:17 PM
The more I've thought about it though I think a crushing defeat for them could help spur the legislature into actually passing marriage equality...

I guess I'm still hoping it won't get on the ballot though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 24, 2009, 03:14:43 PM
The more I've thought about it though I think a crushing defeat for them could help spur the legislature into actually passing marriage equality...

I guess I'm still hoping it won't get on the ballot though.

I'm of two minds.  I think results would be fascinating on one hand, but on the other hand, I do enjoy watching the Washington Christian right fall on their collective ass on this one.  But I also think the conventional wisdom is that this would be close, when I think it would probably fail pretty handily.  That would be good p.r. for the marriage equality side, I agree.  So I actually do want it on the ballot, although that's still mostly to see the results :P.

I'm a little worried that public support for gay marriage is going to stall in the upper 40's.  Also, an off-year General Election may not be the best time to get it on the ballot because youth turnout will suck.  I'd love to be the first state to have it stand up to a public vote; I really, really do not want to see it lose narrowly, as I suspect it would today.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on July 25, 2009, 11:37:40 AM
Washington's same-sex couples have nothing to gain from a vote, they can only lose what they should have.

Fraud: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47u2m4hH0SQ

I love how the woman at the beginning says she supports same-sex marriage, and gets fooled into signing. :/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 25, 2009, 02:20:55 PM
Washington's same-sex couples have nothing to gain from a vote, they can only lose what they should have.

Sure they do.  A massive electoral victory that polls indicate would inevitably occur.  It wouldn't necessarily increase the number of their rights, but it would make the state legislature a little less queasy about the potential of passing marriage equality in the future -- although I hope they don't jump the gun.  That would find its way onto the ballot and actually be competitive.

Anyway, a few hours and we may have a better idea of whether this is all moot anyway :P  I suspect it will be.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on July 25, 2009, 05:42:57 PM
Mmm... I don't know. I don't doubt we can win at the polls, but I just don't think it would help get same-sex marriage through the legislature. What would be better instead, would be for Democrats to perform well in the 2010 elections, because I don't think the legislature would want to pass a same-sex marriage bill in 2010, during an election year, even if the domestic partnership hypothetically does well in the polls.

By the way, I'm not familiar with Washington referendum law - will we ever get the number of signatures?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 25, 2009, 06:31:53 PM
I think they take a random sample, see if the random sample's invalidation rate justifies checking all the signatures, and count them if not.

Faith and Freedom Network claims they delivered 135,000 signatures with another few still coming.  That's more than the requirements, but they really needed 150,000.  Randall looked pretty beaten and said that an initiative might be next.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 25, 2009, 11:29:38 PM
Brian Sonntag endorsed Susan Hutchison. Ewwww


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 26, 2009, 08:44:38 PM
Title change


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on July 27, 2009, 12:32:27 AM
Last night I had a dream that I was trying to get to my polling place in dark-fictional-unfamiliar-dream-Tacoma.  I missed a bus and had to run there and got there like 2 minutes too late.  I was a little distraught until the pollworker told me that there was nothing on the ballot.  Literally.  It was a completely blank piece of paper.

I agree with my subconscious.

Why in the hell are there 25 pages about it?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 27, 2009, 03:28:28 AM
Last night I had a dream that I was trying to get to my polling place in dark-fictional-unfamiliar-dream-Tacoma.  I missed a bus and had to run there and got there like 2 minutes too late.  I was a little distraught until the pollworker told me that there was nothing on the ballot.  Literally.  It was a completely blank piece of paper.

I agree with my subconscious.

Why in the hell are there 25 pages about it?

Imagine what it would be like if there was meaning to the primary.

The primaries for King County Executive and Seattle Mayor should actually be relatively interesting (especially the former if people are smart enough to vote in a way that makes the maps cool).

Will Alcon vote for über union hack Beckie Summers Kirby WHO IS IN THE POCKETS OF THE UNIONS? Readers want to know.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 27, 2009, 04:33:24 AM
Last night I had a dream that I was trying to get to my polling place in dark-fictional-unfamiliar-dream-Tacoma.  I missed a bus and had to run there and got there like 2 minutes too late.  I was a little distraught until the pollworker told me that there was nothing on the ballot.  Literally.  It was a completely blank piece of paper.

I agree with my subconscious.

Why in the hell are there 25 pages about it?

Imagine what it would be like if there was meaning to the primary.

The primaries for King County Executive and Seattle Mayor should actually be relatively interesting (especially the former if people are smart enough to vote in a way that makes the maps cool).

Will Alcon vote for über union hack Beckie Summers Kirby WHO IS IN THE POCKETS OF THE UNIONS? Readers want to know.

District 5?  You think I live in District 5?  You are dead to me.

(Not dead enough that I probably won't ask you for help on several votes.  But a lot deader than you were before.)

District 2 is full of sodomizers and arsenic. But that's probably how you like it, you sick freak.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 27, 2009, 01:56:21 PM
Port of Tacoma -- Commissioner No. 1
I guess Connie Bacon, because no one else seems qualified.  I don't really like the job Bacon's done.  I think she's part of the Commission's problem, which is ignoring practical and monetary details in Port operations while chasing "big-picture" projects like green jobs.  I don't have a problem with chasing "green jobs," but when they aren't competent on the current concrete stuff, it's hard to be optimistic.  Anyway, Bill Casper seems fixated on port security issues that are beyond the Commission's scope, and Bernardo Tuma seems to run for offices without knowing anything about them.  I wonder which downtown restaurant he owns.  They never say.

Yup.

Tacoma School District No. 10 Director Pos. 2
In order of my likelihood to vote:

Chris Van Vechten -- I like his energy and I like his willingness to propose unconventional ideas.  I'm a little worried that he may have Sacred Cows.  It's hard to tell whether his ideas are borne out of analytical mindedness or youthful exuberance.  It's a dice roll, but I like the guy.  (Even if it's lame that he washed the Internet of his grandparent-horrifying YouTube monologues!  boo!)

Catherine Ushka-Hall -- Seems interesting and competent.  Strikes a good balance between service on do-gooder boards and practicality.  Nice, too.  Don't get the sense she'd shake things up as much as I want, but on the other hand she's completely guaranteed to be better than the incumbent.

Amy Bates -- The TNT people really liked her, but I didn't get a sense of what makes her better than Ushka-Hall.  They both seem well-rounded, results-oriented but with a foot planted in minority/poverty issues, too.  Never met her, maybe it's something unquantifiable.  Wouldn't mind if she advanced past the primary but I have my doubts she will.

Jerry Thorpe -- Competent old guy.  I think there are equally competent candidates who are more energetic.

Deb Blakeslee -- Seems like a well-intentioned but unqualified do-gooder who stands no chance of making it past a primary.

Connie Rickman -- The online version of the TNT article ends the bit about Rickman with "Voters have better choices this year.", and then goes on to talk about the other candidates.  The print version uses a colon instead.  The print version is right.  I mean:  "When asked what lessons the school board might have learned from the Millligan experience, [Rickman] attributed the former superintendent’s problems to misinformation spread by reporters and community misperceptions."  Lol.

I'll be voting for him in the primary as well, but I may switch over to Ushka-Hall in the general. I'm very curious to see the results for this one.

Fire Protection District No. 3 - University Place FD, Props. 1 & 2
No.  University Place should be burned down.  These propositions try to stop that from happening!  Easy vote.

:(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 27, 2009, 02:52:03 PM
Seattle and King County are both going to have really interesting primaries.

I'm still undecided on King County Executive. :\


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 27, 2009, 03:43:46 PM
Is anyone interested in maps for King County Exec and Seattle Mayor (and whatever else)?  If so, I can set up ArcExplorer.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 27, 2009, 03:47:38 PM
I fear it'll just turn into non-partisan boring jumble with no candidate differing more than a few percentage points in each precinct from their county-wide average, but if it turns out to be interesting then a map would be wonderful.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 27, 2009, 04:50:49 PM
Yes, of course.

I suspect the Democrats will split the vote enough in King County to let Hutchison win most precincts, though a Democrats-only primary map would be very interesting. All four of them have their own "home districts" that they would at least do well in, I imagine.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 28, 2009, 03:15:51 PM
I also think the Seattle Bag Tax map could be interesting.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 28, 2009, 11:50:48 PM
Wednesday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 104. North wind between 3 and 7 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 71. North wind between 5 and 8 mph becoming calm.

Thursday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 102. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 5 mph.

^^ We are all going to die.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on July 29, 2009, 12:26:47 AM
Wednesday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 104. North wind between 3 and 7 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 71. North wind between 5 and 8 mph becoming calm.

Thursday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 102. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 5 mph.

^^ We are all going to die.

I agree. I though I lived in Western Washington, not Texas.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 30, 2009, 03:04:53 AM
I was looking through the voter's pamphlet. HUTCHISON LIKES TO USE CAPS LOCK.

Anyone else think it's interesting that Republicans didn't think a U.S. Senator was qualified to be President, but that some newscaster is qualified to run a county of nearly two million people?

It's looking like Constantine will get the second spot in the general, I think. Though I like that Ross Hunter mentioned transit-oriented development in the pamphlet, so I might have to vote for him. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on July 30, 2009, 12:14:21 PM
I thought you guys might find this interesting.

Quote
A federal judge in Tacoma has temporarily blocked release of the names and addresses of those who signed Referendum 71, which would repeal a law giving gay couples new marriage-like benefits. U.S. District Judge Benjamin H. Settle this afternoon granted a temporary restraining order requested by Protect Washington Families to stop the Secretary of State's Office from making the signers' names public. The TRO will remain in place until a hearing set for Sept. 3.

Earlier this morning, the Secretary of State Office had said that while it has no statutory authority to withhold the names, it also did not plan to contest the effort to temporarily block their release. No one from the state attorney general's office was present at this afternoon's hearing. Judge Settle cited that absence in his written order, and also gave what appears to be a nod to the strength of the referendum backers' case, writing that they "have sufficiently demonstrated a reasonable likelihood of success on the merits" of their First Amendment claim, and "a reasonable likelihood of irreparable harm if the names are released."
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2009559521_webref17names30m.html

Although if it was any other kind of petition, the signature gatherers wouldn't be in court trying to prevent what's required by law...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 03, 2009, 09:46:26 PM
R-71 needed a signature error rate under 14%.  So far the error rate is 12.31% after 11,502 signatures checked.  That is beyond the margin of error.  Caveats are that the number of duplicates probably increases later on, so if they are not checking randomly, later signatures could be reasonably expected to validate at higher rejection rates.

Even with the most liberal of caveats, chances are now good that this thing is making the ballot.  Which I am now upset by.  Grass is always greener.

Edit: Or maybe not (http://horsesass.org/?p=18427), but I don't have time to read that, now.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 05, 2009, 03:55:41 AM
News...Reject rate on R-71 is up.  The SoS's office asserts that the rejection rate needs to be a maximum of 14.2%.  This math, reported by the mainstream media, is not correct.  They are dividing the total number of signatures by the maximum needed.  Referendum 71 has 14.2% "extra" signatures; however, they need an error rate of 12.4% and the Referendum appears headed to miss the ballot.

http://www.washingtonpoll.org/results/080409.pdf

Washington Poll findings for favorability:

Obama - 87-12 (+75)
Gregoire - 78-21 (+57)
Nickels - 40-50 (-10)
Drago - 28-24 (+4)
Donaldson - 19-7 (+12)
McGinn - 20-8 (+12)
Mallahan - 21-3 (+18)

Nickels 23%
Mallahan 11%
Donaldson 10%
Drago 9%
McGinn 9%
Undecided 37%

Bag tax:

Yes 41%
No 55%

Run-off results:

Nickels 36%
Drago 33%

Nickels 33%
Donaldson 40%

Caveat: Small poll.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 05, 2009, 04:22:09 AM
The idiocy of the MSM regarding the error rate is really quite remarkable. I thought it couldn't get worse than two years ago when they declared 4204 dead only to realize that two weeks later it was obviously going to pass, but I guess I was wrong.

Oh and I'm more likely to have a vagina than Gregoire is to have a 78% favorability rating.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 05, 2009, 02:45:07 PM
This poll was just the City of Seattle, to be clear, in case that affects your vagina status


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 05, 2009, 02:54:52 PM
This poll was just the City of Seattle, to be clear, in case that affects your vagina status

Ah. That it does, that it does...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 07, 2009, 04:11:42 PM
The Stranger's endorsement of McGinn certainly makes things more interesting.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 07, 2009, 07:54:19 PM
what the hell sam reed's office

Quote
After days of posting the number of invalid signatures for anti-gay Referendum 71, elections officials are retracting their counts, declaring that hundreds of signatures previously disqualified are actually valid.

Last night, the secretary of state’s office office had reported that the cumulative error rate was over 13.5 percent. "The maximum error rate that they can withstand is 12.43 percent, so they are currently exceeding that," spokesman David Ammons said. So it looked like R-71 was on a trajectory to fail to make the ballot.

But now the secretary of state's office is reporting that 11.63 percent of the signatures are invalid. At this rate, it could make the November ballot. So what happened?

Shane Hanlin, an assistant director of election for the secretary of state’s office, says that so-called "master checkers" have been reviewing signatures over the past week. Even though daily counts have been announced (and widely reported by media), these checkers may not make a final decision on the validity of a signature until days later. They are authorized to consider the reason a signature was initially disqualified, check the state database, and move an "invalid" signature into the "valid" category. Hanlin says that the state's five master checkers have taken this action on least 409 signatures.

There are three reasons a signature can be initially disqualified: (1) No matching voter is found in the state database; (2) the signature is a duplicate; or (3) the signature on the petition doesn't match the one in the state's voter database.

It's unclear why the signatures are being reversed. No computer-generated list of all the signatures that have been reversed exists, says Hanlin; however, crews are keeping paper records of the reversed signatures, should a dispute arise over the methods for qualifying the signatures. Anecdotally, he says, "Two master checkers say their best guess is that most of the signatures they are reversing are signatures that don’t match [the signature on file]."

But it can take a day or more for master checkers to review all disqualified signatures. "They take more time to do this and have more experience doing searches on middle names and partial addresses," says Hanlin. "They use more sophisticated techniques to finds a match. Those 409 signatures were overturned based on that process."

"We are learning as we go. We made a decision to report a daily total even though some of those signatures might be accepted the next day when the master checker reviewed them," Hanlin says.

Ammons adds, "The daily snapshots are accurate for that day, but subsequent review can change the error rate. Sorry this is confusing — it’s the first time they’ve been releasing daily tallies and reasons for tentative rejection of signatures."

The secretary of state's office launched a new page yesterday that is routinely updated with the latest signature counts. Although, as of this moment, the page is essentially meaningless: the daily totals don't even add up to the cumulative totals.

Election officials need to pull this act together—soon. While their aims for transparency are respectable, the numbers don't even add up anymore. They cite 409 signatures that have been reversed, but none of the figures on their website show how they reached that figure. The final count is slated to be complete by the end of next week; however, if this slapdash reporting continues, the dispute will be tied up in court far longer.

I know why this is happening, but could they possibly have botched this one more?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 07, 2009, 08:25:39 PM
Yeah... I really thought Sam Reed was better than this. Very disappointing.

I'm starting to smell a lawsuit... if there does turn out to be some fishy business here or even the possible appearance of some, or the margin is extremely close, you can be sure both sides will sue for all it's worth.

Which could turn out to be rather good for us, considering ballots need to be printed in mid-September. I suppose a court could just go ahead and put it on the ballot and then throw the results out should they decide that it didn't legally get on the ballot.

Although then there's the possibility of the incredibly awkward and bizarre situation whereby the law is rejected by the voters but the court then rules that the referendum never should've been on the ballot, thus putting the law back into effect. You think the backlash over the 2004 Governor's election was bad... ugh...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 08, 2009, 01:16:49 AM
Title change


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on August 08, 2009, 10:46:31 AM
On the flip side, I guess the numbers are encouraging because the opposition was basically saying this was marriage and was running on that, and they hardly went over the minimum requirement. Their ads were all "THIS BILL WILL ALLOW SAME-SEX MARRIAGE, AND CHURCHES WHO DON'T OBEY WILL GET THE DEATH PENALTY! STOP THIS BILL NOW!", so I don't think their signature gathering strategy was much different in the Idaho part of the state.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 08, 2009, 05:02:09 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2009621555_hutchison08m.html

Nice to see the media finally showing Hutchison for the demented psychopath she is.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 08, 2009, 08:55:16 PM
OK, so I've been doing some math about Referendum 71's chances.  (Warning: Math.)

In order to make it to the ballot, Referendum 71 needs 120,577 signatures.  The total number of submitted signatures was 137,689.  That leaves 17,113 invalidations needed to miss the ballot, or a maximum invalidation rate of 12.43%.  Don't believe any other number you read -- this is the ACTUAL under/over for validation.

So far, of those signatures, 35,866 (26.05%) have been checked.  Note that this contradicts with the total the state reports (35,296) for reasons I can't figure out, and will ignore. 

Now, the number of those ballots initially rejected has been 4,822 of these 35,866 (13.44%).  That, obviously, would be about one percentage point too many to qualify for ballot access.  However, due to the Secretary of State's double-checking, it has been determined that 759 of the rejected signatures (15.74% of total rejected) were, in fact, valid; another 34 (0.71% of total rejected) are pending.  We don't know anything about the rate at which the Penders will be accepted, so I will assume they are all rejected for the time being.

The current adjusted non-acceptances are 4,063 of 35,296 (a current invalidation rate of 11.51%).  This means Referendum 71 is making the ballot by the margin of about one point.  It also, obviously, means the rejection rate has some catching up to do -- from now on, the rejection target rate for Referendum 71 to miss the ballot is 12.74%.

In order to miss the ballot, 13,050 of the remaining 102,428 signatures need to be rejected.  Considering that so far at least 15.74% of initially-rejected signatures have later been accepted, that means that (unless checks are done the same day), you'll need to see a reported non-adjusted invalidation rate of about 15.12% daily, maybe more, to see this fail.

How's that looking?  Well, the non-adjusted rates from the last week showed rejection rates of 11.34%, 12.98%, 14.36%, 14.20%, 14.42% and 12.91%.  The good for Decline to Signers:  There are some days where the reject rate approached 15%, and the trend (generally) is toward higher rejection rates.  The bad news:  The trend doesn't appear linear, and even if it were, it probably wouldn't be enough.  So, the only thing going here for Decline to Signers is more likely to be with them than not.

The takeaways:

1. We have nearly three-quarters of the signatures left to check.  There is still good time for this to fluctuate, and if the initial 26% does not include later-day sloppiness, there is still some chance for this to fail.

2. There's some unclarity on how the "Master Checker" statistics are being reported.  If Friday's total (12.91%) included Master Checker adjustments, that indicates a stronger linear trend toward rejections.  If the total doesn't include Master Checkers, or even worse for Decline to Sign, if the Master Checkers weren't yet done on Friday's, there's no good news for Referendum 71 opponents (or neo-proponents?) there.

2b. Several sources report that the "master checkers" may not make decisions for several days.  The more cases there are of this in the above (could they have really completed Friday AM's checks before the end of the counting day?), the worse for Decline to Sign.  However, I'm not sure that the SoS is really talking about their process enough to make this anything more than an educated inference.

3. Unless the first quarter of signatures are being done in order, and they are meaningfully cleaner, or double signatures really increase big time, this thing is probably headed for the ballot.

4. I will probably know a bit more in a few days, either from anecdotal reports of the order of the count, about Master Checkers and their effect on last week (check for a bump -- or not -- Monday), and from the negligible Pending signatures that may very well decide this thing.

Stay tuned.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 09, 2009, 03:28:39 AM
While I'm waiting on news from the Secretary of State's office, SurveyUSA poll news:

Obama approval is down to +15% (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6b88a759-0833-4527-a63b-c3222b152179), about following national trends.

And in a poll of 579 likely and actual voters, far too many of whom are under 35 (we don't vote, guys, seriously!):

Nickels 22%
Mallahan 19%
McGinn 15%
Donaldson 11%
Drago 7%
Campbell 3%
Garrett 3%
Sigler 1%
Undecided 20%

Bag Tax:

Yes 43%
No 54%
Undecided 3%

Among those who claim to have already voted, Nickels (26%) leads Mallahan and McGinn (19% each).  However, Mallahan does substantially better among older voters than Nickels, and older voters will turn in more ballots -- eventually, they're slow.

Bag Tax trails 62%-35% among those who have already voted.  It fares similarly (64%-30% no) among the old.  Looks like it's headed for a decent failure.

Overall:  Good news for Mallahan, "eh" news for Nickels, bad news for McGinn, worse news for Donaldson, predictably awful news for Drago, and no one else matters in the remotest.

***

County Executive poll:

Hutchison 39%
Constantine 13%
Hunter, Jarrett 8%
Phillips 6%
Goodspaceguy, Lippmann, Lobdell 2%
Undecied 20%

Hutchinson's position is even better than it looks here:  while she receives a plurality in every age group, she does better with age, up to 47% among seniors.  Also troubling to Democrats is her 48% among the relatively menial number of King County residents who claim to have already cast ballots as of a few days ago when the poll was taken.

Still, though, 11% can be a heck of a lot to make up in King County.  (Although it should be noticed this poll skews horribly young for a Primary, it wouldn't be as bad in a General.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 09, 2009, 03:32:18 AM
Yeah, it's gonna be Nickels and Mallahan. Not quite sure how the general will turn out though... but I'd give the clear edge to Nickels.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 09, 2009, 03:36:52 AM
Yeah, it's gonna be Nickels and Mallahan. Not quite sure how the general will turn out though... but I'd give the clear edge to Nickels.

Wouldn't it be hilarious if an electoral freakout resulted in Mallahan/McGinn?  Turnout would have to be low and skew middle-aged crunchy, though.

Updated post with County Executive polling, by the way.  Hutchison's performance is impressive and this was before her record leaks headlined with how she got fired over calling out sexual harassment.  I'm honestly a bit surprised.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 09, 2009, 04:13:05 AM
How is Hutchison doing so well? I mean I get that she's the only Republican in the race, but how do so many rank-and-file Republicans know that? Or is it just carry over from her news anchor days?

Maybe I just underestimate the intelligence of the electorate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 09, 2009, 01:58:02 PM
Was that SUSA poll taken before or after The Stranger's endorsement of McGinn?

And, if you guys remember, polling also showed Irons close to winning in 2005. Of course Sims won with a comfortable margin in the end. The Seattle Times article is just the beginning, there are three months left for everyone to realize what a crazy Hutchison is.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 10, 2009, 12:02:09 AM
Referendum 71 follow-up:

I asked SoS Spokesman Dave Ammons about whether the "Master Checkers" are done with Friday's batch, which is obviously really significant to trending and all.  He replied that he has no idea (in no caps, how casual!) but will probably ask Monday afternoon.

Anyway, I'll keep up on that.  Or Dave Ammons will.  Probably.  Maybe.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on August 11, 2009, 06:25:46 PM
As a supporter of his efforts to replace the Alaskan Way Viaduct with a deep-bore tunnel (and finally get something done for a change instead of continually going through the endless Seattle process...), I'm endorsing Mayor Greg Nickels in this race, but I would be just as happy with Joe Mallahan if he were to win this. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 11, 2009, 07:31:10 PM
Referendum 71 update -- Tuesday, August 11th
The answer to my question was what Decline to Signers didn't want:  The Master Checkers were, indeed, behind.

Today's update includes only signatures reviewed by Master Checkers, which accounts for the decline in total reviewed signatures.  I think this is a good idea.  There's not much to release information where some of the signatures are double-checked and some aren't.  The SoS's office still says this is "too close to call," because duplicates will increase.  They sure need to start increasing soon, or this thing is on the ballot.

Checked so far
Last binder checked: 140
Total checked so far: 33,214 (24.12%)
Today's rejection rate: n/a

Accepted: 29,572 (89.58%)
Pending: 12 (0.04%)
Rejected: 3,450 (10.39%)

Futures
Trend: -0.0089 (yes, the rejection rate trend is slightly down so far)

Progress toward ballot placement: 24.68%
Progress toward failure: 20.16%

Future rejection rate needed to fail: 13.08%
...versus current cumulative rate: +2.69%
...versus current daily rate: n/a

Edit: And here (http://horsesass.org/?p=18844) is a more statistically grounded version of what I was doing.  Hooray!  Same conclusion, though.  Unless there are some weird-ass clusterings going on, this thing is going to make the ballot.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 12, 2009, 06:12:59 PM
Strategies 360 (who?) poll of 500 voters (whatever that means):

Nickels 24%
McGinn 16%
Mallahan 15%
Drago 8%
Donaldson 6%
Undecided 26%

Nickels favorability is at 33%-53%

Bag Tax is failing 40%-53%

And for King County Executive:

Hutchison 31%
Constantine 13%
Hunter 6%
Jarrett 5%
Phillips 5%
Undecided 38%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 12, 2009, 07:18:05 PM
Seems to be in line with other polls.

It looks like Dow Constantine will be the next King County executive.

Nickels looks likely to make it to the general election, with McGinn and Mallahan battling it out for the second spot... Would be interesting either way. Nickels would be the more liberal candidate against Mallahan and the more conservative against McGinn, IMO.

Alcon, why don't we have Seattle mayor maps for past elections? Primaries and generals? Hmm!??!?! ;)



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 12, 2009, 07:52:11 PM
Referendum 71 update -- Wednesday, August 13th

Checked so far
Last binder checked: 213 (skipped 206, 207, 209 & 212)
Total checked so far: 48,299 (35.08%)
Today's rejection rate: 11.03%

Accepted: 43,147 (89.35%)
Pending: 21 (0.04%)
Rejected: 5,121 (10.60%)

Futures
Trend: +0.05

Progress toward ballot placement: 35.78%
Progress toward failure: 29.92%

Future rejection rate needed to fail: 13.41%
...versus current cumulative rate: +2.81%
...versus current daily rate: +2.38%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 12, 2009, 07:58:34 PM
Alcon, why don't we have Seattle mayor maps for past elections? Primaries and generals? Hmm!??!?! ;)

Are there any that would fit in with shapefiles of major elections?  Precinct changes in Seattle happen constantly.

Turnout rate in King County is currently 9.8%, and 9.5% in Seattle.  That is godawful, especially in an all vote-by-mail election.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ajc0918 on August 13, 2009, 12:24:07 AM
Seems to be in line with other polls.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 13, 2009, 02:06:28 AM
I would try to give some insight into what type of voters are mailing in ballots through my super-awesome Democratic party contacts, but the WA Dems don't purchase matchbacks during off-year primaries. Can't imagine why.

I still think Mallahan will make the second spot - he's a better candidate for the olds. I think Constintine is pretty clearly going to make it into the second spot in the Executive race as well.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on August 13, 2009, 07:40:29 AM
Can anyone explain the differences in policy positions between the various King County Executive candidates? 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 13, 2009, 07:22:25 PM
Weird update -- Few signatures checked (seems like they were filling in some binders they skipped), but a somewhat higher rejection rate.  Seems like there were a few messy binders (206 had a 20% rejection rate -- not duplicates, though.)

Referendum 71 update -- Wednesday, August 13th

Checked so far
Last binder checked: 220
Total checked so far: 50,493 (36.67%)
Today's rejection rate: 11.53%

Accepted: 45,099 (89.32%)
Pending: 19 (0.04%)
Rejected: 5,394 (10.68%)

Progress toward ballot placement: 37.40%
Progress toward failure: 31.52%

Future rejection rate needed to fail: 13.44%
...versus current cumulative rate: +2.76%
...versus current daily rate: +1.91%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 14, 2009, 03:35:11 PM
Can anyone explain the differences in policy positions between the various King County Executive candidates? 

There really isn't much of any to be quite honest (at least amongst the four Democrats).

Here's a link to the King County voters' pamphlet though: http://www.kingcounty.gov/elections/elections/200908/contestscandidates.aspx


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 14, 2009, 11:10:18 PM
Despite the uptick today, R-71 has yet to shown any evidence that the (apparently randomly-assembled) binders are returning rejection rates with enough unpredicted trending to justify not looking at it from a randomized model that assesses duplicatin rates.  And such a model currently has it making the ballot 9,989 of 10,000 times (http://horsesass.org/?p=19004) a simulation is run.

And now I'll shut the hell up about the statistics crap until that changes :D.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 16, 2009, 07:41:25 PM
Going back to that SUSA poll, I found it interesting that Obama has higher approvals among "moderates" than liberals. While there are a significant number of liberals who dissaprove of him I can't imagine them voting for a Republican in the next presidential election.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 17, 2009, 07:43:01 PM
Place yer bets on the races of yer choosing...

King County Executive: Hutchison, Constantine, Jarrett, Phillips, Hunter, crazies

Seattle Mayor: Nickels, Mallahan, McGinn, Drago, Donaldson, crazies (I have a feeling Drago may do better than we think though...)

Bag Tax: Fails badly

Tacoma City Council, District 4: Campbell, Murphy, Marten

Tacoma City Council, District 5: Summers Kirby, Lonergan, Miles (Miles may surprise us though and wouldn't be shocked to see either Summers Kirby or Lonergan not make it. I would laugh endlessly if Summers Kirby didn't make it. She tries so hard.)

Tacoma School District, Position 2: Ushka-Hall, Van Vechten, Rickman, Bates, Thorpe, Blakeslee (Although Rickman and maybe even Bates could make it... I just don't really know about that second slot.)

University Place City Council, Position 1: Bird, Figueroa, Carnrite (The most interesting number here will be the combined Figueroa and Carnrite total)

Lakewood City Council, Position 2: Brandstetter, Coleman Lacadie, Wilhelmsen

Puyallup City Council, District 1: Dill, Aho, Weltzer

Puyallup City Council, District 2: Hansen, Taylor, Workman (Taylor could surprise us...)

Puyallup City Council, District 3: Boyle, Alexander, Tebao


I'm violating my rule that no one should ever try to predict non-partisan races, but what the hell.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 17, 2009, 10:20:52 PM
King County Executive: Hutchison, Constantine, Jarrett, Phillips, Hunter, crazies

Yeah.  I think the interesting question is what percentage Hutchison manages.  I'd say her over/under for standing a chance in November is 40%.  That's stupid to predict in a primary but whatever.

Seattle Mayor: Nickels, Mallahan, McGinn, Drago, Donaldson, crazies (I have a feeling Drago may do better than we think though...)

Agreed.  I think McGinn may also do worse than he's polling.  Other possible freak-outs: Mallahan's high support among geezers gives Nickels a run for his money, McGinn's people don't turn out and Drago gets close to him (unlikely after the Stranger endorsement IMHO)

I look forward to Donaldson's amusingly strong performance around Garfield High School in the Central District.


Part of me thinks low turnout is good for this thing...but my over/under is still definitely well within double digit failure.

Tacoma City Council, District 4: Campbell, Murphy, Marten

Yes (speaking of people who try really hard)

Tacoma City Council, District 5: Summers Kirby, Lonergan, Miles (Miles may surprise us though and wouldn't be shocked to see either Summers Kirby or Lonergan not make it. I would laugh endlessly if Summers Kirby didn't make it. She tries so hard.)

I could see this race being very, very close.  All three candidates have strong appeals to groups that are about 1/3 of the electorate.  Miles is unquestionably the biggest question mark.  He could be a distant third, but then again he could even win.  I think the former is more likely.

Tacoma School District, Position 2: Ushka-Hall, Van Vechten, Rickman, Bates, Thorpe, Blakeslee (Although Rickman and maybe even Bates could make it... I just don't really know about that second slot.)

Agreed.  I think Bates has a lot going for her (TNT, really personable television appearance) but I think on paper, she appeals to Ushka-Hall voters too much, and she lacks any campaign presence.  Rickman does too (lol) but she's an incumbent.  I wonder if she even realizes that she's in totally deep sh**t?  The Bates/Ushka-Hall split would normally put Van Vechten in first for me, but he's young and primary voters might not take him seriously for that.

Thorpe and Blakeslee are such hopeless candidates that the order there may switch depending on what the ballot statements are like.  "Former teacher" vs. "PTA lady" probably goes "former teacher," even if his ideas are older than sand.

The rest, I have no idea.  Who cares about Puyallup?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 18, 2009, 02:38:01 PM
SurveyUSA squeezes out one last poll (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=1370c872-df18-4ec3-a974-8201922a0333&x=0,0).  The mayor's race continues to look fairly competitive:

Nickels 26% (+4)
Mallahan 22% (+3)
McGinn 21% (+6)
Donaldson 7% (-4)
Drago 7% (nc)
Campbell 3% (nc)
Garrett 2% (-1)
Sigler 2% (+1)
Undecided 20% (-9)

My guess is that Norman Sigler's late-term surge (100% support increase!) is because the voters have discovered that his middle name is apparently Zadok.  Awesome.

Among early voters, the race is even more competitive.  Nickels (27%), Mallahan (25%) and McGinn (23%) are all within MoE of each other.  I would now put the odds of a Mallahan upset at about 1-in-3.

The Bag Tax continues to look dead in the water, although maybe not as dead as a week ago:

Yes 45% (+2)
No 52% (-2)
Undecided 3%

Oddly, despite a huge split by education level (college grads support 53-43 while non-grads oppose 26-72), this is doing worse among those who claim to have voted already: it's down 42-55.  Likely voters with uncast ballots oppose by only 47-49.  That's the power of seniors without college degrees, and exactly why this was dumb to put on a primary ballot.

No Exec poll, for whatever reason.

Last night, Pierce County turnout stood at 15.8%, King County at 16.7%, and Seattle at 17.4%.  There was a small line at my polling place, which is weird but probably just a coincidence.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 18, 2009, 04:17:42 PM
There was one other guy at my place. The poll workers also seemed to be very confused as to why I was there.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 18, 2009, 06:16:42 PM
News Tribune blog with some fun narrative teasers:

Quote
• Will voters oust embattled Federal Way Municipal Judge Michael Morgan in the primary? Normally, muni court judge races fly under the radar. But Morgan's behavior in office has earned him a reprimand from the state Commission on Judicial Conduct and five challengers. Morgan has made a fight of it, outspending the other candidates to keep his job.

• Will Tacoma School Board Director Connie Rickman survive a crowded primary against five challengers? Rickman was the most vocal supporter of controversial former superintendent Charlie Milligan. Rickman hasn't reported spending any money, so she may be counting on name familiarity and the fact that any detractors may split their votes among the challengers.

• Who will contend in November in Tacoma for two open City Council seats representing south and east districts? In Puyallup, who will survive the three primary races for council?

• Which of several heavyweights will emerge from the fight over the much coveted King County executive slot?

• Will Seattle voters bag the proposed grocery bag tax? (My guess: Yes.)

I literally began laughing out loud at the suggestion that Rickman has a strategy.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 18, 2009, 06:29:52 PM
I can't wait for the bag tax map! Should serve as a good guide for what areas need to be cut out of the city.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on August 18, 2009, 07:01:16 PM
Why are you making school board predictions? Do you really need elections that badly?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 18, 2009, 07:46:23 PM
Why are you making school board predictions? Do you really need elections that badly?

I don't have a problem. I can handle it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 18, 2009, 08:33:28 PM
I almost forgot that there are top-two primaries in the 9th, 15th and 16th Legislative Districts today as well.

9th - Fagan or Hailey (wife of deceased Rep. Steve Hailey) will make it, along with Stockwell I suppose. There's a core 30% of Democrats in this district that will make sure a GOP vs. GOP general doesn't happen.

15th - I'm guessing the guy who didn't submit a voters' pamphlet statement won't be moving on.

16th - Grant and Nealey will face off in November, and I'm guessing Nealey will have better luck against this Grant.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 18, 2009, 08:35:26 PM
Why are you making school board predictions? Do you really need elections that badly?

lol

Seattle and King County actually have some really interesting races, in my opinion... ~1.5 hours until the first results come in!

I realize Constantine has this in the bag, but I voted for Ross Hunter because I like him best. Hopefully Hunter or Jarrett will get the message and run for f**king Congress, though.

As for the general, I personally don't see how Hutchison can win. The Democrats will unite behind Constantine and he'll at worst get somewhere in the mid-50s. This is King County after all, and even with a well-known local celebrity pretending to be an independent, an Idaho-esque candidate isn't going to win here.

I'm thinking Nickels and Mallahan will move onto the general in Seattle, but I wouldn't be surprised if McGinn got the #2 spot. I think Mallahan would probably have a floor in the mid-40s, simply being from being the generic anti-Nickels candidate (and that's all he is). Nickels would probably have a better chance against McGinn, as I suspect McGinn is too much of a lefty to do well among the more conservative and Republican voters in Seattle, who make up ~15-20% of the electorate (more than enough to swing the election).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 18, 2009, 10:02:16 PM
Polls are closed.  Should be 15-30 minutes before we get the first results.

I'm guessing no one cares about anything but King and Pierce, and if you do too bad because I don't! :D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 18, 2009, 10:05:58 PM
Polls are closed.  Should be 15-30 minutes before we get the first results.

I'm guessing no one cares about anything but King and Pierce, and if you do too bad because I don't! :D

That sound you hear is thousands of Walla Wallans crying.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 18, 2009, 10:09:35 PM
Hutchison vs. Constantine it is...

OMG SEATTLE MAYOR !!!11!!!!!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 18, 2009, 10:11:01 PM
Hutchison 37%
Constantine 22%
Jarrett 12%
Phillips 12%
Hunter 11%

Woah:

McGinn 27%
Mallahan 26%
Nickels 25%
Donaldson 9%
Drago 8%

Mike O'Brien leads along with all of the incumbents.

Bag tax is failing 42-58.  I'm glad I predicted it to do a little worse than expected now even if I expect that to close.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 18, 2009, 10:13:37 PM
He's in third! He could actually not even make it out of the primary!

Who wins a Mallahan vs. McGinn general?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 18, 2009, 10:16:02 PM
He's in third! He could actually not even make it out of the primary!

Who wins a Mallahan vs. McGinn general?

I'm inclined to say Mallahan...although that would be a weird race, it's like Old People/Business Types vs. Greens.  Except McGinn does have his weird suburban-Republican oriented viaduct position.

Pierce County took forever in 2008, right?

Note: Early votes tend to be loaded old + partisan Democrat.  I don't know what significance that has here, other than that I think Bag Tax will narrow.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 18, 2009, 10:17:15 PM
He's in third! He could actually not even make it out of the primary!

Who wins a Mallahan vs. McGinn general?

I'm inclined to say Mallahan...although that would be a weird race, it's like Old People/Business Types vs. Greens.  Except McGinn does have his weird suburban-Republican oriented viaduct position.

Pierce County took forever in 2008, right?

In the general because they had to deal with RCV they were way late, but they should be relatively on time tonight.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 18, 2009, 10:22:51 PM
While we're waiting on Pierce and King County's 10 PM batch...uh...

Burien will be annexing a chunk of Highline/White Center.  That's passing 59-41.  One of the biggest annexations in a few decades.

And in Walla Walla news...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 18, 2009, 10:23:55 PM
I retract my statement about there not being the possibility of a GOP vs. GOP general in the 9th... and the guy without a voters' pamphlet not making the general.

It really worries me how people vote for candidates that are clearly insane.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 18, 2009, 10:29:00 PM
JERRY THORPE WTF?!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 18, 2009, 10:33:02 PM
I almost think the Thorpe thing has to be a mistake. I mean seriously... what. the. fuck?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 18, 2009, 10:33:58 PM
I know the primary trends old but his platform was BRINGING BACK CURSIVE

wtf.

And I thought that race would be a tough decision

asfsdfda


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 18, 2009, 10:36:09 PM
Laura Grant is actually hanging on there at 46% in the 16th.  Obviously that's going to be a tough race, but that's a healthy enough result.

jerry f**king thorpe.  tacoma school board is doomed


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 18, 2009, 10:36:40 PM
Grant holding on in the 16th LD at 46%.

The 15th LD, despite voting for Obama, is giving 66% to the Rethug.

The 9th LD is crazier than usual, giving 73% to the Rethug candidates.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 18, 2009, 10:46:47 PM
I've been on the phone with politico types... no one can begin to explain Thorpe. It's just one big collective WTF.

This is the county that elected Dale Washam though...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 18, 2009, 10:47:49 PM
And in the 15th, how does someone who doesn't write a voters' pamphlet statement receive 19% of the vote?! What the hell did these people base their decision on?!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 18, 2009, 10:50:36 PM
Apparently Thorpe was on the Port Commission years ago. People would need to have a really, really good memory to have that help him though...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 18, 2009, 10:55:23 PM
The 15th is always extremely Republican legislatively, especially in primaries.  Which is kind of weird, because its Democratic zones (Mexi-towns, Columbia River Gorge) are generally pretty hackish.

Isn't the no-name guy also the one with an address in White Salmon?  He also owns a company that makes a crappy spyware product.  Looks like he advanced on the basis of not being the other Democrat in the race (http://www.allbusiness.com/government/government-bodies-offices-government/12655198-1.html).

No wonder the GOP % is so high.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 18, 2009, 11:59:33 PM
Accessible voting results from King County came in, too small to do anything meaningful.

No more updates from King County races or the Legislative races tonight... Pierce has the first round of poll votes in about a half hour (I suspect they'll only end up doing two instead of the three they original planned on).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 19, 2009, 12:00:10 AM
A few more King County ballots round out the night.

Hutchison 37.37% (-0.03)
Constantine 22.41% (+0.03)

McGinn 26.58% (+0.02)
Mallahan 25.77% (-0.04)
Nickels 25.06% (+0.01)

Bag Tax
Yes 41.91% (+0.08)
No 58.09% (-0.08)

more pierce in...screw it, meeker's faster.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: War on Want on August 19, 2009, 12:11:18 AM
I saw some results on the news tonight. Odd that I didn't follow this at all. I only saw some ad's in Seattle for this Dow Constantine guy.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 19, 2009, 12:14:09 AM
I wonder if Nickels would endorse in a Mallahan/McGinn slugfest. Probably not, Mallahan has been attacking him relentlessly and McGinn and him disagree too fervently on the tunnel.

I agree with Alcon though, Mallahan would probably win. It'd be a fun race.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 19, 2009, 12:46:30 AM
There's also some absentee votes in there too... and only like 700 poll voters. Weird update.

ETA: There should be around 4,000-4,500 more poll ballots to come.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 19, 2009, 12:48:26 AM
Oops, I deleted the post accidentally.  But yeah, could there really be only 700 poll voters countywide?

Also, isn't Figueroa upsetting Bird pretty surprising?  Everyone I know in the 28th was pretty sure they'd both advance but Bird would win by a pretty reasonable margin.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 19, 2009, 12:56:22 AM
Oops, I deleted the post accidentally.  But yeah, could there really be only 700 poll voters countywide?

There were around 5,500 poll voters in the August 2007 primary... factor in lower turnout, more registered voters overall, but perhaps fewer poll voters... I'd guess around 5,000 poll voters, give or take a few hundred?

Also, isn't Figueroa upsetting Bird pretty surprising?  Everyone I know in the 28th was pretty sure they'd both advance but Bird would win by a pretty reasonable margin.

Yeah. I knew she was in trouble (all the U.P. incumbents are), and I was one of the most pessimistic about their chances in local circles, but this is even worse than I thought. A 14-year incumbent getting 38% of the vote? Damn. Switch Bird and Figueroa's numbers and you'd have gotten my prediction.

So Carnrite's votes will flow to Figueroa and he'll win comfortably and then based on these results Ehart will trounce McCluskey and Choiniere will take out Smith as well. Only remaining question is how badly Grassi does against the gadfly crazy. Quite frankly I wouldn't rule out him losing at this point.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 19, 2009, 01:24:49 AM
One of the labor-backed Seattle Port Commissioner candidates, who has raised around $50,000, is barely beating a man who refuses to accept campaign contributions.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 19, 2009, 02:24:18 AM
Apparently Jan Shabro is too busy giving Shawn Bunney a blow job to post any more results tonight.

ETA: I retract my crude snipe. And I was way off on the poll voter number: only 3,000.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 19, 2009, 05:52:30 PM
Pierce already has an abstract up.

I may give Shabro a lot of crap, and I still think she's an idiotic Republican tool, but she has been doing a lot of good things in the brief few months as Auditor that McCarthy never did...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 19, 2009, 06:37:12 PM
Nickels fell further behind... :( Bag tax is up to 43%. Stupid Seattle.

Hutchison also dropped to 35.92%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 20, 2009, 05:21:43 AM
R-71 showing some very non-random error:

http://horsesass.org/?p=19270

No longer a certainty for qualifying for the ballot at all.  This basically means that the SoS's office is either being inconsistent, or was incorrect when they called the binder configuration randomized.

Either way, potential happy fun lawsuit time.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on August 20, 2009, 08:36:33 AM
Glad to see Mallahan is in the lead, however narrowly.

How much of a percentage of the vote will he likely get in the general election when he and McGinn face off again in November?  Is it safe to assume that Nickel's voters will vote for him?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nickels loses ground; Mallahan takes lead (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2009694368_mayorsrace20m.html)

By Jim Brunner
Seattle Times staff reporter


Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels' chances of re-election slipped Wednesday as new vote totals showed him still in third place, and falling further behind challengers Joe Mallahan and Mike McGinn.

With tens of thousands of votes remaining to be counted, neither Nickels nor his rivals were ready to call the election.

Mallahan now leads with 26.8 percent of the vote. McGinn is in second with 26.5 percent. Nickels is third with 25.2 percent. The top two will advance to the Nov. 3 general election.

Wednesday's count of about 16,000 Seattle ballots left Nickels more than 1,000 votes out of second place. He was just 455 votes out of second place on election night.

King County Elections estimates about 50,000 ballots remain to be counted in the city.

Seattle political consultant Michael Grossman said Nickels is finished if he doesn't show some momentum today when another large batch of votes is tallied. "I think that will be decisive," he said.

It might actually be better for Nickels to lose in the primary at this point, Grossman suggested, because he'd face a brutal and difficult task in a general election.

"His brand as a politician is so tainted voters are not going to listen to anything he [Nickels] has to say," Grossman said. "Short of some egregious behavioral quirk that McGinn or Mallahan could exhibit, it's hard to see how it is going to turn around for him."



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 20, 2009, 08:03:31 PM
Statistically screwed as of 5 PM today:  Greg Nickels, Referendum 71's ballot placement chances, misplaced primary-based optimism over Susan Hutchison's November outlook.

A great day for snow-hating gay people who aren't hair/make-up stylists.  Because Dow Constantine obviously does not use those.

Edit: Oh, about Referendum 71's fate being certain?  Just kidding, for the fifth time (http://blogs.secstate.wa.gov/FromOurCorner/index.php/2009/08/r-71-checking-and-rechecking/).  I know how hard it is to explain this stuff, but I think Dave Ammons may be a bit over his head when it comes to the statistics stuff.  Basically, so far 2,401 signatures have been re-checked to see if the voters have subsequently registered.  Of those, 285 (11.87%) have.  It's unclear whether this includes duplicates or not, and whether the updated total reflects this or not, so yet again we have no actual idea of what's happening.

Edit edit: My knuckles are really bleeding and I'm not sure why.  Pretty sure this is related though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on August 20, 2009, 09:57:34 PM
Edit edit: My knuckles are really bleeding and I'm not sure why.  Pretty sure this is related though.

Maybe they're telling you to get a well-deserved break from the computer, and give them a rest?  :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 21, 2009, 12:25:04 AM
It looks like Nickels may concede tomorrow morning. I feel sorry for the guy.

Wonder what Joe Mallahan is going to base his campaign off of now. His message thus far has just been "I'm not Greg Nickels and he sucks".


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 21, 2009, 12:42:51 AM
It looks like Nickels may concede tomorrow morning. I feel sorry for the guy.

Wonder what Joe Mallahan is going to base his campaign off of now. His message thus far has just been "I'm not Greg Nickels and he sucks".

How about "I'm not Mike McGinn and he sucks"


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 21, 2009, 06:24:50 PM
Hutchison continues to fall, she's now at 33.27% with Constantine creeping up at 26.72%.

McGinn is unfortunately back in the lead for Mayor...

27.60% McGinn
27.01% Mallahan
25.42% Nickels


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 21, 2009, 06:32:08 PM
Bag fee is also only failing 53-47 now.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 21, 2009, 06:54:38 PM
They also released an abstract by LD as of election night, which is kind-of, sort-of interesting. Some of these have probably changed, but whatever:

Hutchison won everything but the 34th, 36th, 37th, 43rd, and the 46th (all of which were won by Constantine). If you ignore Hutchison's votes Constantine won the 11th, 30th, 31st, 32nd, 33rd, 34th, 36th, 37th, 43rd, 46th and the 47th, Hunter the 1st, 45th and the 48th, Jarrett the 5th and the 41st, and Phillips the 39th (63 total votes in the LD).

Nickels won the 11th and the 37th, Mallahan the 34th and the 46th, and McGinn the 36th and the 43rd.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on August 21, 2009, 07:38:36 PM
Woohoo! This was a nice surprise. I HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE Nickels.

Good riddance you worthless sack of crap.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 21, 2009, 07:58:43 PM
Woohoo! This was a nice surprise. I HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE Nickels.

Good riddance you worthless sack of crap.

What did he do, outlaw strip clubs or ban emo concerts?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on August 21, 2009, 08:17:29 PM
How much of a percentage of the vote will Mallahan likely get in the general election when he and McGinn face off again in November?  Is it safe to assume that Nickel's voters will vote for him?
-------------------------------

Can anyone answer these questions?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 21, 2009, 09:02:39 PM
Woohoo! This was a nice surprise. I HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE Nickels.

Good riddance you worthless sack of crap.

Nickels is one of the best Mayors on urban issues in the entire country.

His loss is a victory for suburb-lovers everywhere.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on August 21, 2009, 11:41:13 PM
Woohoo! This was a nice surprise. I HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE Nickels.

Good riddance you worthless sack of crap.

What did he do, outlaw strip clubs or ban emo concerts?

The former. Well he didn't outlaw them, but he tried to heavily restrict them and ban lapdances.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 22, 2009, 04:40:50 AM
Nickels came third? What'd he do to become so unpopular?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 22, 2009, 04:45:53 AM
Nickels came third? What'd he do to become so unpopular?

Seattle did the same thing in 2001: incumbent Mayor got third...

Quite frankly, Seattle is just a whiny complainer city. He's never been popular. Supposedly some are upset with how he handled the snow storm last winter.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: minionofmidas on August 22, 2009, 04:50:55 AM
Yeah, the mayor of Seattle ought to have enough clout in Olympia to ensure the city isn't allocated any snowstorms.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 22, 2009, 04:52:15 AM
Nickels came third? What'd he do to become so unpopular?

Loss of a basketball team (not that he had any real control over that), a semi-bungled reaction to a snowstorm, a less than friendly personality. No real major reasons, just a sort of general feeling of unpleasantness towards him. Combine that with a legitimately impressive grassroots campaign from McGinn, a relentlessly-negative personally-financed campaign from Mallahan and a little bit of bad luck and you get the result we got. It's more a fluke then anything.

This isn't the first time Seattle's done this though - Nickels first got elected in 2001 when he and another fellow beat the incumbent mayor into third. That guy actually screwed up though.

EDIT: Basically what bgwah said.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: minionofmidas on August 22, 2009, 04:56:04 AM
I don't get the hating on McGinn in the last pages of this thread.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 22, 2009, 05:02:49 AM
I don't get the hating on McGinn in the last pages of this thread.

I don't really dislike him that much. I think he's wrong on the viaduct and his plan for having the City of Seattle take control of Seattle schools would be a disaster (not that he'd ever get the votes on the council to do it), but I don't think he'd be horrible. I probably prefer him over Mallahan... although I'd prefer to keep Nickels between the three of them.

Bgwah seems to dislike him more, I'll let him to speak to his reasoning.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on August 22, 2009, 05:09:41 AM
So, to an extent, this is an example of Seattle's civic culture? Interesting.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: minionofmidas on August 22, 2009, 05:30:30 AM
I don't really dislike him that much. I think he's wrong on the viaduct
If I understand this right they want to build another freeway through the city center. There are few things I'll oppose more unthinkingly, unflinchingly, than that. So me and McGinn are on one page on that. ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 22, 2009, 05:33:53 AM
No, Lewis, it's McGinn who supports the surface option.  Basically, he wants to tear down the Alaskan Way viaduct and replace it with...nothing.  It would redirect traffic through downtown.  It would screw up the Pike Place Market corridor.  His transit subsidies aren't going to convince West Seattle commuters to take the bus enough to avoid a debacle.  It's a really bad plan, and Mallahan is really kind of a grease-weasel, and I really wish that Nickels (even if I don't have fuzzy feelings for him) were still in the race.  Anyway, Mallahan supports a tunnel.

I'm with every word of Meeker's post, although I support Mallahan more over the viaduct issue.  I don't understand bgwah's personal animosity toward McGinn.  He seems like an amiable hippie on a bike, and viaduct issue notwithstanding, no ta dumb one.  Mallahan seems kind of smarmy to me and hearing his "on the issues" stuff during the campaign is borderline painful.  McGinn's campaign is a little bit of bad populism to me, but I don't think this is pitchfork-mob stuff.  I'd be all for it...but the viaduct is his "big issue."


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 22, 2009, 05:39:11 AM
It took *eight years* to make a decision on the viaduct. And the right decision was made. But no, McGinn wants to change it. He would probably fail, but he may be able to drag it out for years.

Quite frankly, if that viaduct collapses because he dragged the process out longer than he should have, then I am 100% okay with putting him right on death row for mass murder. Because the people who die when that happens? The blood will be on McGinn. And if it happens during the day, he's going to be drenched. Seattle is really bad at this kind of thing. It's called the "Seattle process," everything is dragged out and prolonged. It takes *forever* to make a decision. Nickels was good at cutting through this. But McGinn? He epitomizes it... He is the Seattle process candidate. I hate the Seattle process. It must be destroyed. I don't want to risk having the viaduct rebuilt. Rebuilding the viaduct will destroy Downtown Seattle for generations!! The surface option is retarded and doesn't make sense, either. It would also threaten Pike Place Market. And you don't f**k with Pike Place Market!

Furthermore, Nickels was such a strong supporter of in-city growth. He raised height limits downtown, encouraged developments around transit stations, etc... On the other hand, McGinn is one of those annoying "slow growthers." And slow growth just means pushing the growth to the suburbs. He claims to be an environmentalist, but if he were really one then he would be in favor of getting as much of the population growth in the city as possible. Not cutting down forests for cookie-cutter subdivisions.

Nickels gave us results. He raised height limits downtown, he finally got our light rail network started, he had a great environmental record, he was getting rid of the viaduct... He was doing well on the issues important to me. And it upsets me to see him go.

Lewis--You're wrong on McGinn!! I fear his idiotic "surface option" may risk having the state just go ahead and build a viaduct. McGinn is definitely the best bet for rebuilding the viaduct.

McGinn is a populist virus and he must be exterminated!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on August 22, 2009, 10:47:31 AM
Maybe third time's a charm:

How much of a percentage of the vote will Mallahan likely get in the general election when he and McGinn face off again in November?  Is it safe to assume that Nickel's voters will vote for him?
-------------------------------

And while I'm at it, does anyone have any idea who stands a better chance of becoming Seattle mayor this November -McGinn or Mallahan? 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 22, 2009, 01:26:32 PM
Mallahan is probably favored although I still maintain he's bad on TV and that will hurt him.  It's way too early to make a prediction without seeing what issues the race forms around.  I don't think anyone's dodging your question, I just don't think anyone has that good of an answer.

And IIRC bgwah predicted like a ten-point race in this thread


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 22, 2009, 07:42:20 PM
Average age of a primary voter was 59.4

Not sure if that's above or below average for off-year primaries though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on August 22, 2009, 08:22:09 PM
How much of a role did strip clubs play in Nickels' defeat? Did any strip club owners give large donations to any of the candidates?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 22, 2009, 09:52:55 PM
How much of a role did strip clubs play in Nickels' defeat? Did any strip club owners give large donations to any of the candidates?

It never came up during the campaign, wasn't even mentioned by the Stranger, and I doubt any candidate wants to accept donations from what may be the most corrupt political force in Seattle.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 25, 2009, 02:05:48 PM
There's a rumor bubbling up today that State Senator Ed Murray is going to enter the Seattle Mayor's race as a write-in. Murray confirmed last night that he's been approached by labor leaders and others to do it. For those not close followers of Washington State politics, Murray is openly gay and is responsible for virtually every piece of gay rights legislation in Washington State history.

This would certainly make things, ah, interesting.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: minionofmidas on August 25, 2009, 02:10:24 PM
Wouldn't that just split the Lefty vote and elect Mallahan? Or is Murray hotdamn popular and might just push both people to the wall?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 25, 2009, 02:14:59 PM
Wouldn't that just split the Lefty vote and elect Mallahan? Or is Murray hotdamn popular and might just push both people to the wall?

He's got more name recognition then either Mallahan or McGinn by a mile, and he'd have the heavy backing of the labor unions (all of which had been behind Nickels). I think you're right though that it'd much more heavily cut into McGinn's voting base.

It would also depend on the type of campaign he'd end up running. It could be a serious campaign about actually becoming mayor or it could be just about making a point for the grumpy Nickels supporters or it could be an extension of the R-71 fight and make it a whole gay rights thing. Murray is a gifted and powerful politician though, and he's being pushed into doing this, so I suspect it'd be a legitimate campaign.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 25, 2009, 03:13:08 PM
Wouldn't that just split the Lefty vote and elect Mallahan? Or is Murray hotdamn popular and might just push both people to the wall?

He's got more name recognition then either Mallahan or McGinn by a mile, and he'd have the heavy backing of the labor unions (all of which had been behind Nickels). I think you're right though that it'd much more heavily cut into McGinn's voting base.

It would also depend on the type of campaign he'd end up running. It could be a serious campaign about actually becoming mayor or it could be just about making a point for the grumpy Nickels supporters or it could be an extension of the R-71 fight and make it a whole gay rights thing. Murray is a gifted and powerful politician though, and he's being pushed into doing this, so I suspect it'd be a legitimate campaign.

I would have to learn more about Murray's position on urban issues like the tunnel, but I like his work in the state legislature.

I was always under the impression that Murray was just waiting for McDermott's seat, though...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 25, 2009, 03:42:37 PM
Wouldn't that just split the Lefty vote and elect Mallahan? Or is Murray hotdamn popular and might just push both people to the wall?

He's got more name recognition then either Mallahan or McGinn by a mile, and he'd have the heavy backing of the labor unions (all of which had been behind Nickels). I think you're right though that it'd much more heavily cut into McGinn's voting base.

It would also depend on the type of campaign he'd end up running. It could be a serious campaign about actually becoming mayor or it could be just about making a point for the grumpy Nickels supporters or it could be an extension of the R-71 fight and make it a whole gay rights thing. Murray is a gifted and powerful politician though, and he's being pushed into doing this, so I suspect it'd be a legitimate campaign.

I would have to learn more about Murray's position on urban issues like the tunnel, but I like his work in the state legislature.

I was always under the impression that Murray was just waiting for McDermott's seat, though...

That's been my impression as well. The Nickels faction may make a convincing case though (and it could potentially help him gain a higher profile for a future run at McDermott's seat).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 26, 2009, 04:52:37 AM
Update on the Legislative races:

- The 9th District general will assuredly be a GOP vs. GOP race. Susan Fagan received 29% and Pat Hailey (wife of the deceased member) received 26% while the "Democrat" received 25%. Fagan and Hailey are clearly the most qualified candidates in the field so this is probably for the best. The county results here are rather remarkably polarized in some cases:

Adams: Hailey 50%, Fagan 16%
Asotin: Fagan 34%, Hailey 22%
Franklin: Hailey 81%, Fagan 8%
Garfield: Hailey 38%, Fagan 33%
Spokane: Fagan 27%, Hailey 18%
Whitman: Fagan 37%, Hailey 15%

- The Democrat who didn't submit a voters' pamphlet statement will be crushed by easily the least intelligent member of either chamber in November. A shame as Obama actually won this district.

- Rep. Laura Grant (D) (the only non-Spokane Democrat on that side of the mountains) has held on at 46% and will face Terry Nealey (R) in the general election. Nealey received 38% of the vote in a fractured Republican field, and was also the 2008 candidate against Grant's father, the late Rep. Bill Grant (D). The elder Grant received 52% in the 2008 primary and 54% in the 2008 general election, so the younger Grant is probably screwed. Stranger things have happened though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 26, 2009, 04:13:06 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2009737129_seiu_getting_to_know_mcginn_ma.html

Murray says there's a 25% he'll run and will decide by next week.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 26, 2009, 11:45:06 PM
The last ballots seem to be trickling in... Hutchison has dropped every day, I think. She's now at 33.07%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Badger on August 27, 2009, 08:20:56 AM
Nickels fell further behind... :( Bag tax is up to 43%. Stupid Seattle.

Hutchison also dropped to 35.92%
I just read that Hutchison served on the board of directors for the anti-evolution "intelligent design" organization, The Discovery Institute.

Good grief! I know she's running for County Executive, a position that deals more with road grades, zoning and budgets rather than hot button social issues, but still--how is someone like that running strong in metro Seattle?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 27, 2009, 12:50:27 PM
Nickels fell further behind... :( Bag tax is up to 43%. Stupid Seattle.

Hutchison also dropped to 35.92%
I just read that Hutchison served on the board of directors for the anti-evolution "intelligent design" organization, The Discovery Institute.

Good grief! I know she's running for County Executive, a position that deals more with road grades, zoning and budgets rather than hot button social issues, but still--how is someone like that running strong in metro Seattle?

Eh, George W. Bush got about the same %.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on August 27, 2009, 10:09:41 PM
Nickels fell further behind... :( Bag tax is up to 43%. Stupid Seattle.

Hutchison also dropped to 35.92%
I just read that Hutchison served on the board of directors for the anti-evolution "intelligent design" organization, The Discovery Institute.

Good grief! I know she's running for County Executive, a position that deals more with road grades, zoning and budgets rather than hot button social issues, but still--how is someone like that running strong in metro Seattle?

Hutchison has the advantage of high name recognition because of her decades-long work as a TV Newscaster.  That is particularly a strong advantage in a multi-candidate primary.  She has deliberately attempted to obscure her extreme right views, a task made easier by the unfortunate passing of that measure which made this race "non-partisan."  The notion that this race is non-partisan is a sham.  Keep in mind that the Democratic vote was split between four candidates in the primary.  She had the Republican vote to herself.

The current results show Hutchison getting 33% of the vote.  Second place Dow Constantine has 27%.  Given she is the sole major Republican in the race against four strong Democratic candidates that is a poor showing.  If she posts similar numbers against Constantine in the general it will be a nuclear blowout.  My guess, however, is that she will pick up the assorted crazies votes as well as a small percentage of Jarrett's and Hunter's and will get 38%-40% in the general election.  That's still a loss by a huge margin.  All of Larry Phillips' votes and a majority of Hunter's and Jarrett's will go to Constantine.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Badger on August 28, 2009, 01:41:08 PM
Nickels fell further behind... :( Bag tax is up to 43%. Stupid Seattle.

Hutchison also dropped to 35.92%
I just read that Hutchison served on the board of directors for the anti-evolution "intelligent design" organization, The Discovery Institute.

Good grief! I know she's running for County Executive, a position that deals more with road grades, zoning and budgets rather than hot button social issues, but still--how is someone like that running strong in metro Seattle?

Hutchison has the advantage of high name recognition because of her decades-long work as a TV Newscaster.  That is particularly a strong advantage in a multi-candidate primary.  She has deliberately attempted to obscure her extreme right views, a task made easier by the unfortunate passing of that measure which made this race "non-partisan."  The notion that this race is non-partisan is a sham.  Keep in mind that the Democratic vote was split between four candidates in the primary.  She had the Republican vote to herself.

The current results show Hutchison getting 33% of the vote.  Second place Dow Constantine has 27%.  Given she is the sole major Republican in the race against four strong Democratic candidates that is a poor showing.  If she posts similar numbers against Constantine in the general it will be a nuclear blowout.  My guess, however, is that she will pick up the assorted crazies votes as well as a small percentage of Jarrett's and Hunter's and will get 38%-40% in the general election.  That's still a loss by a huge margin.  All of Larry Phillips' votes and a majority of Hunter's and Jarrett's will go to Constantine.

Fair enough. I guess I was overfocusing on the fact she finished first by a healthy margin. Well explained.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on August 28, 2009, 02:40:15 PM
The people behind Referendum 71 say, gay people can't be judges!

Quote
A deep concern that we have is that Judge Julie Spector is openly homosexual and activist. She is found on a list of openly homosexual elected officials. In her campaign to be elected to her seat in 2000, she was quoted in the September 13, 2000, edition of the Seattle Weekly, calling herself a "dyke".

It is impossible to believe an openly homosexual activist judge could rule fairly in this case. We are considering our next step.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 28, 2009, 08:50:25 PM
The people behind Referendum 71 say, gay people can't be judges!

Quote
A deep concern that we have is that Judge Julie Spector is openly homosexual and activist. She is found on a list of openly homosexual elected officials. In her campaign to be elected to her seat in 2000, she was quoted in the September 13, 2000, edition of the Seattle Weekly, calling herself a "dyke".

It is impossible to believe an openly homosexual activist judge could rule fairly in this case. We are considering our next step.

Wow....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 31, 2009, 07:23:50 PM
I don't know if anyone put this up already, but Referendum 71 is officially on the ballot (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2009780479_apwadomesticpartnerships.html) for November.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on August 31, 2009, 07:30:58 PM
Sigh. Washingtonians, are you hopeful?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 31, 2009, 08:08:29 PM
Yea, it'll be fine. Might even help the movement in the long-run.

It's true that off-year electorates in Washington are more conservative than on-year electorates, but I don't think it'll be by enough to make a difference. This year also might be different because of the high-profile nature of this ballot initiative as opposed to most off-years where everything on the ballot is boring as sh**t.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 01, 2009, 01:26:09 AM
I would worry less about the conservatism of the off-year electorate and more about the age.  The "always vote" contingency is a big player in off-year elections, and the median member probably qualifies for AARP benefits.  But I agree with Meeker.  On the generic ballot issue question, this thing would be in the upper 60%s.  More realistically, I think it starts out in the low 60%s -- a few people will claim to support it as an alternative to gay marriage, but then revert when it's posed as a dichotomy.

Either way, I just don't see Reject winning.  Some political observers claim it might...I don't see it.  Like Meeker said, part of the off-year conservative lean is that the ballot is incredibly boring so the vote trends social conformist (and old, as previously mentioned.)  But with an issue like gay partnerships on the ballot, I'd be unsurprised if that weren't true (minus the old part, natch.)

Our apartment already has signage out, though, pointed toward the old people in condos, just in case.  ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: cinyc on September 01, 2009, 02:00:05 AM
The people behind Referendum 71 say, gay people can't be judges!

Quote
A deep concern that we have is that Judge Julie Spector is openly homosexual and activist. She is found on a list of openly homosexual elected officials. In her campaign to be elected to her seat in 2000, she was quoted in the September 13, 2000, edition of the Seattle Weekly, calling herself a "dyke".

It is impossible to believe an openly homosexual activist judge could rule fairly in this case. We are considering our next step.

Saying that what the people behind Referendum 71 believe to be a homosexual activist judge couldn't rule fairly in a case involving the legality of a gay partnership referendum is not the same as saying gay people can't be judges.   One is a statement that a judge with a (perceived) conflict of interest shouldn't hear a particular case.  Another is a blanket statement that simply wasn't made here.  Judges recuse themselves over actual or perceived conflicts of interest all the time.  She probably shouldn't here, but who knows what will happen?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 01, 2009, 02:18:21 AM
cinyc,

She's an activist judge in that...she's not closeted about her homosexuality?  And she once called herself a "dyke" to the Seattle Weekly, the only gay-related thing in her career that I've been informed of.  Does doing that qualify someone as an activist?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: cinyc on September 01, 2009, 02:40:46 AM
cinyc,

She's an activist judge in that...she's not closeted about her homosexuality?  And she once called herself a "dyke" to the Seattle Weekly, the only gay-related thing in her career that I've been informed of.  Does doing that qualify someone as an activist?

I don't know what evidence those who initially made the statement have or don't have about the judge's level of activism.  If all that they have is that she's openly homosexual and called herself a dyke to some newspaper, that's woefully insufficient grounds for recusal.  But if she's truly a gay activist who has been personally involved in the fight over the referendum, it might be.   That's why I said "Saying that what the people behind Referendum 71 believe to be a homosexual activist judge..." not this judge is (or isn't) a homosexual activist judge.

My main point is that the people who made the statement didn't say gay people can't be judges ever, as Holmes claimed, just that she may not be fit to hear this particular case.  The latter is unlikely from the evidence we have, but possible based on evidence we don't have which may or may not exist.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on September 01, 2009, 10:12:55 AM
The people behind Referendum 71 say, gay people can't be judges!

Quote
A deep concern that we have is that Judge Julie Spector is openly homosexual and activist. She is found on a list of openly homosexual elected officials. In her campaign to be elected to her seat in 2000, she was quoted in the September 13, 2000, edition of the Seattle Weekly, calling herself a "dyke".

It is impossible to believe an openly homosexual activist judge could rule fairly in this case. We are considering our next step.

Saying that what the people behind Referendum 71 believe to be a homosexual activist judge couldn't rule fairly in a case involving the legality of a gay partnership referendum is not the same as saying gay people can't be judges.   One is a statement that a judge with a (perceived) conflict of interest shouldn't hear a particular case.  Another is a blanket statement that simply wasn't made here.  Judges recuse themselves over actual or perceived conflicts of interest all the time.  She probably shouldn't here, but who knows what will happen?

Sorry, but no. She is a judge, and she rules over every kind of case that should come her way. To discredit her for one case because of her sexual orientation is to discredit her fully as a judge, even if it's just for one case. You can't pick and choose.

They are claiming, "only straight judges can make rulings about Referendum 71" because gay judges have personal bias, but in the end, everyone has personal bias. Their whole prerogative is to take down same-sex couples, I don't think they feel too well with a gay person with more power than they do.

Anyway, I stand by my claim that they don't think gay people should and can be judges because their heads are stuck so far up their asses that they think any ruling that conflicts with their own opinions is activism. Well, isn't that what their definition of activism is?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 01, 2009, 11:35:43 AM
cinyc,

She's an activist judge in that...she's not closeted about her homosexuality?  And she once called herself a "dyke" to the Seattle Weekly, the only gay-related thing in her career that I've been informed of.  Does doing that qualify someone as an activist?

I don't know what evidence those who initially made the statement have or don't have about the judge's level of activism.  If all that they have is that she's openly homosexual and called herself a dyke to some newspaper, that's woefully insufficient grounds for recusal.  But if she's truly a gay activist who has been personally involved in the fight over the referendum, it might be.   That's why I said "Saying that what the people behind Referendum 71 believe to be a homosexual activist judge..." not this judge is (or isn't) a homosexual activist judge.

My main point is that the people who made the statement didn't say gay people can't be judges ever, as Holmes claimed, just that she may not be fit to hear this particular case.  The latter is unlikely from the evidence we have, but possible based on evidence we don't have which may or may not exist.

By claiming that a gay judge can't make a ruling on a gay issue is essentially saying that gay judges aren't capable of being impartial. And if you're saying a judge isn't capable of being impartial then you're also essentially saying they aren't capable of being a judge.

If the R-71 folks truly did feel that a gay judge was capable of making a ruling then they'd have no problems with this judge as there'd be no reason to think she couldn't be impartial on the issue other then the fact that she's gay.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 01, 2009, 03:23:24 PM
Ed Murray isn't running for Mayor...

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2009786412_the_stranger_murray_wont_run.html

:(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: cinyc on September 02, 2009, 12:31:47 AM
By claiming that a gay judge can't make a ruling on a gay issue is essentially saying that gay judges aren't capable of being impartial. And if you're saying a judge isn't capable of being impartial then you're also essentially saying they aren't capable of being a judge.

If the R-71 folks truly did feel that a gay judge was capable of making a ruling then they'd have no problems with this judge as there'd be no reason to think she couldn't be impartial on the issue other then the fact that she's gay.

No - by claiming that an ACTIVIST gay judge can't make a ruling on a gay issue is essentially saying that ACTIVIST gay judges aren't capable of being impartial on CASES INVOLVING GAY ISSUES, not all cases generally.  And if you're saying an ACTIVIST judge isn't capable of being impartial on ISSUES ON WHICH THEY ARE ACTIVISTS, then you're essentially saying the judge is BIASED WHEN JUDGING A PARTICULAR CASE, not incapable of being a judge generally.

IF the proponents have actual evidence of the judge's activism (and, as I said twice before, it doesn't sound like they do), what they are asking is no different than if a school funding referendum were on the ballot and the judge vociferously protested or signed a petition against it.   Should he or she recuse himself?  Of course.  Does that mean he or she is unfit to judge in all cases?  Of course not.

The fact is that parties ask judges to recuse themselves over actual or perceived conflicts of interest all the time.  Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't.  That their impartiality in a particular case is questioned doesn't make them unfit to judge generally.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 02, 2009, 12:44:58 AM
By claiming that a gay judge can't make a ruling on a gay issue is essentially saying that gay judges aren't capable of being impartial. And if you're saying a judge isn't capable of being impartial then you're also essentially saying they aren't capable of being a judge.

If the R-71 folks truly did feel that a gay judge was capable of making a ruling then they'd have no problems with this judge as there'd be no reason to think she couldn't be impartial on the issue other then the fact that she's gay.

No - by claiming that an ACTIVIST gay judge can't make a ruling on a gay issue is essentially saying that ACTIVIST gay judges aren't capable of being impartial on CASES INVOLVING GAY ISSUES, not all cases generally.  And if you're saying an ACTIVIST judge isn't capable of being impartial on ISSUES ON WHICH THEY ARE ACTIVISTS, then you're essentially saying the judge is BIASED WHEN JUDGING A PARTICULAR CASE, not incapable of being a judge generally.

IF the proponents have actual evidence of the judge's activism (and, as I said twice before, it doesn't sound like they do), what they are asking is no different than if a school funding referendum were on the ballot and the judge vociferously protested or signed a petition against it.   Should he or she recuse himself?  Of course.  Does that mean he or she is unfit to judge in all cases?  Of course not.

The fact is that parties ask judges to recuse themselves over actual or perceived conflicts of interest all the time.  Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't.  That their impartiality in a particular case is questioned doesn't make them unfit to judge generally.

But the only reason they think she's activist is because she's gay. They instantly assume gay=activist, which is obviously wrong and bigoted.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 02, 2009, 12:09:06 PM
As of 9:47, the first legal challenge to its ballot placement is pretty much dead -- King County Judge Spector ruled against it.  She said any challenge will need to be re-filed in Thurston County (Olympia), which we can expect to happen within five days.

A new Washington Poll out today (http://www.washingtonpoll.org/pdf/same_sex.pdf) (tiny and probably not great) basically finds that Referendum 71 has no chance of being rejected.  It isn't  specific to R-71, but it asks whether the respondent supports marriage (more rights than R-71), full domestic partnership (R-71), limited domestic partnership (less than R-71), or no recognition (obviously less than R-71).  MoE +/-4%.

Inferring the R-71 "results" from the poll:

"Approve" 66.0%
"Reject" 32.6%

Insanely high MoE crosstabs:

Men: 65-35 (+29)
Women: 68-31 (+38)

Liberals: 92-8 (+84)
Moderates: 78-22 (+56)
Conservatives: 39-62 (-22)

Republicans: 53-47 (+6)
Independents: 64-36 (+28)
Democrats: 86-14 (+71)

McCain: 39-61 (-23)
Obama: 88-12 (+77)

Rossi: 46-54 (-9)
Gregoire: 89-14 (+75)

Puget Sound: 71-30 (+41)
Eastern Washington: 58-42 (+17)
Other: 66-34 (+32)

18-34: 73-27 (+46)
35-49: 67-33 (+35)
50-65: 72-28 (+43)
66+: 60-42 (+18)

Income under $40k: 60-40 (+20)
Income $40k-$100k: 67-33 (+34)
Income over $100k: 77-23 (+55)

Active military: 53-47 (+6)
Veteran: 64-36 (+28)
No military: 70-30 (+41)

No college: 56-44 (+11)
Some college: 68-32 (+35)
College degree: 69-31 (+37)
Post-graduate: 75-25 (+51)

Born-again: 48-52 (-4)
Other religions: 71-29 (+41)

Oh, and Susan Hutchison has endorsed it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 02, 2009, 03:12:51 PM
Final primary results:

Hutchison: 33%
Constantine: 27%
Jarrett: 12%
Phillips: 12%
Hunter: 11%
Lobdell: 2%
Goodspaceguy: 1%
Lippmann: 1%

McGinn: 28%
Mallahan: 27%
Nickels: 25%
Donaldson: 8%
Drago: 7%
Campbell: 2%
Garrett: 1%
Sigler: 1%

Approved: 47%
Rejected: 53%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 02, 2009, 04:49:24 PM
Also turnout in King was 32.6% and 19.2% in Pierce.

Amusingly, according to the canvassing board report, 15 ballots were rejected in Pierce County with the explanation given of "Wrong Election".


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on September 02, 2009, 05:18:03 PM
Wait, I am a little confused by R-71... Doesn't it take away some rights given to gay couples? I thought it was the kind of thing that would overwhelmingly be rejected by Washingtonians, also why are liberals in that poll so strongly in favor?

Or am I just confused?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 02, 2009, 06:25:49 PM
Wait, I am a little confused by R-71... Doesn't it take away some rights given to gay couples? I thought it was the kind of thing that would overwhelmingly be rejected by Washingtonians, also why are liberals in that poll so strongly in favor?

Or am I just confused?

The Legislature passed a bill granting same-sex couples all the same rights as marriages (except they called them domestic partnerships). Anti-gay rights folks then succeeded in putting it on the ballot as a referendum, giving the people the same vote as the Legislature. So an "Approve" vote is to approve the law the Legislature passed and a "Reject" vote is to reject the law.

So those who want to get a referendum on the ballot then want people to vote "Reject". This is different from an initiative where those who want to get it on the ballot then want people to vote "Yes".


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 02, 2009, 09:03:37 PM
Easy way to remember it/explain it to others.  In Washington:

A referendum refers an issue to the ballot, where voters get to confirm whether they want that law -- approve or reject.

An initiative initiates an issue.  The citizenry (as opposed to the legislature) drafts the propose law, which may relate to pre-existing legislation, or not.  Votes decide whether to vote "yes" or "no" on the newly-initiated legislation.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on September 03, 2009, 11:20:47 AM
This is just disgusting (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bill-mann/glenn-beck-to-get-key-to_b_275873.html). I might just go and protest this.

EDIT: Version from the Seattle Times (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2009796296_beck03m.html)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on September 03, 2009, 11:24:53 AM
LOL. They're trying too hard to enter joke status.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 03, 2009, 11:36:40 AM
http://www.thestranger.com/seattle/why-do-you-hate-me/Content?oid=2156227

*begins to cry*


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 03, 2009, 02:10:55 PM
This is just disgusting (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bill-mann/glenn-beck-to-get-key-to_b_275873.html). I might just go and protest this.

WTF Glenn Beck is a Washingtonian? *BARF* just goes to show that NW Republicans truly are insane.

http://www.thestranger.com/seattle/why-do-you-hate-me/Content?oid=2156227

*begins to cry*

ROFL at the last one... When did MODU move back to Washington?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 03, 2009, 02:24:44 PM
LOL Glenn Beck was a DJ for Kube 93? wtf


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on September 03, 2009, 03:15:54 PM
I hope Washington does not legalize sodomy.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 03, 2009, 03:18:45 PM
I hope Washington does not legalize sodomy.

Perhaps he was referring to horse sodomy, which we did in fact ban in 2005 after a nasty incident at "The Funny Farm" in Enumclaw.

I mean, he's from Colville after all. It's a big problem out there.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on September 03, 2009, 03:30:24 PM
Omg you guys, I know this guy is in New York, but since we're on the subject, read the e-mail this guy got:

http://joemygod.blogspot.com/2009/09/letter-from-christwirecom.html

He doesn't think gays are literate or sober enough to read the news after a night of sex raves.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 03, 2009, 03:58:15 PM
Omg you guys, I know this guy is in New York, but since we're on the subject, read the e-mail this guy got:

http://joemygod.blogspot.com/2009/09/letter-from-christwirecom.html

He doesn't think gays are literate or sober enough to read the news after a night of sex raves.

That's pretty hilarious, but it is satire :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 04, 2009, 11:13:48 PM
Well, spank me and call me Susan (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3aaf64e9-8d73-45c2-a43b-845326ec6e34), I did not expect this:

Hutchison 47%
Constantine 44%

Hutchison leads Republicans 67-21 but trails Democrats only 33-61.  She picks up about a quarter of liberals, and narrowly wins moderates.  She absolutely slaughters among non-college graduates and trails moderately among that group.  Income tows education a bit; Hutchison, unsurprisingly, does just a bit among the comfortable than the working-class.

No regional breakdown, which is kind of a bummer.  Maybe they'll console us with a Seattle mayor poll in the next few days.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 04, 2009, 11:46:00 PM
Hutchison polled about 5-7 behind what the polls said she would get in the primary... I could see her getting 40-42%.

But whatev, I'm still 99.999% sure she'll lose.

also, she's apparently winning 76% of the black vote. lolz


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 08, 2009, 08:42:33 PM
Hutchison
High points: Milton (60.7%), Pacific (59.6%), Black Diamond (55.2%).
Low points: Seattle (20.3%), Beaux Arts Village (28.3%), Mercer Island (28.4%).

Constantine
High points: Seattle (41.7%), Burien (34.7%), Normandy Park (27.4%).
Low points: Hunts Point (1.6%), Medina (3.9%), Clyde Hill (5.0%).

Jarrett
High points: Mercer Island (50.2%), Beaux Arts Village (38.4%), Newcastle (31.1%).
Low points: Milton (4.2%), Skykomish (6.0%), Yarrow Point (6.3%)

Phillips
High points: Skykomish (18.0%), Seattle (16.1%), Shoreline (15.6%).
Low points: Beaux Arts Village (2.0%), Medina (2.5%), Yarrow Point (4.6%).

Hunter
High points: Medina (48.9%), Yarrow Point (40.7%), Hunts Point (40.5%).
Low points: Milton (4.8%), Burien (5.8%), Mercer Island (6.4%).

Lobdell
High points: Covington (8.4%), Black Diamond (7.3%), Algona (6.8%).
Low points: Yarrow Point (0.0%), Medina (0.5%), Clyde Hill (0.9%).

Who knew Alan Lobdell had a base?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on September 08, 2009, 09:39:19 PM
Any recent polls on the Seattle mayoral race? 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 09, 2009, 02:52:54 PM
Any recent polls on the Seattle mayoral race? 

No, SUSA did a standalone Exec poll but we've had nothing about Mayor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 09, 2009, 04:12:49 PM
The Seattle Times was kind enough to make 2009 maps unlike stupid Alcon... :)

King County Executive: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/ABPub/2009/09/09/2009832174.pdf

Seattle  Mayor: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/ABPub/2009/09/09/2009831662.pdf


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 09, 2009, 06:37:22 PM
I think Alcon had SARS or something right after the election so I'll give him a break. Cool maps though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 09, 2009, 06:43:13 PM
I didn't have SARS, I had college, but they do have similar symptoms :(

I just got an old laptop JUST for GIS.  I will make maps when I give up on having a social life and doing well in school, which I expect will be by next Tuesday.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 10, 2009, 02:19:57 AM
Brad Owen sucks, Part XXV: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2009833043_wes_uhlman_brad_owen_endorse_h.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Badger on September 10, 2009, 06:21:10 PM
Brad Owen sucks, Part XXV: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2009833043_wes_uhlman_brad_owen_endorse_h.html
LEE HAMILTON?!? One of the greatest foriegn policy minds in congress during the last 20 years, co-chair of the 9/11 Commission and the Iraq Study Group, and who endorsed Obama in the primary is backing a hardcore creationist?!? To say nothing of why a retired congressman would get involved in a county exec race from a state 2000 miles from his own?

Must either be a close family friend or...no, I won't go there.

Either way, I fear King County may be on the verge of electing its own NW Washington version of Marilyn Musgrave.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 10, 2009, 07:38:04 PM
Bag tax map:

()

I'm going to be making my own because these colors are too limited (precinct results ranged from 9.8% at a Southeast Seattle precinct to 76.5% at one in Wallingford.)  The sliver precinct by Boeing Field also had no votes, not strong approval


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on September 12, 2009, 04:33:59 PM
Brad Owen sucks, Part XXV: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2009833043_wes_uhlman_brad_owen_endorse_h.html

I am not surprised that Owen would endorse Hutchison as my opinion of him was already low.  As a Democrat, I am embarrassed that he is in our party. 

I wouldn't worry about that Survey USA poll.  Once the Democratic Machine starts grinding Hutchison will be crushed.  She is a pathetically easy target.  The average person is paying little to no attention to this race at this point, most Democratic voters are unaware of Hutchison's (lack of) policy plans, her embarrassing statements/actions and her political affiliations.  That will likely change soon.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 12, 2009, 05:07:43 PM
Brad Owen sucks, Part XXV: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2009833043_wes_uhlman_brad_owen_endorse_h.html

I am not surprised that Owen would endorse Hutchison as my opinion of him was already low.  As a Democrat, I am embarrassed that he is in our party. 

I wouldn't worry about that Survey USA poll.  Once the Democratic Machine starts grinding Hutchison will be crushed.  She is a pathetically easy target.  The average person is paying little to no attention to this race at this point, most Democratic voters are unaware of Hutchison's (lack of) policy plans, her embarrassing statements/actions and her political affiliations.  That will likely change soon.

I'm not worried, either. Looking at this past primary as well as the 2005 election, Republican candidates tend to over poll by at least 5 points.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 16, 2009, 05:07:42 PM
SUSA (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4c8a7462-46c7-453f-9130-b4332d2bdd6e) on Seattle mayor:

Mallahan 41%
McGinn 36%

Unsurprisingly, Mallahan does best among older voters, non-liberals (moderates/independents are actually polling like conservatives/GOPers), college graduates, the wealthy and the traditionally fancy-suit-appreciating Asian vote.

I'd complain about the age break-down in this poll being too young, but I did last time too, and look what happened then.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on September 16, 2009, 05:21:28 PM
I am fine with this. I personally don't want McGinn elected simply because of the viaduct issue. We need to commit to one solution rather than go back on our word and try to start from scratch. Remember the monorail?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 17, 2009, 12:42:41 AM
I am fine with this. I personally don't want McGinn elected simply because of the viaduct issue. We need to commit to one solution rather than go back on our word and try to start from scratch. Remember the monorail?

I agree.  It really makes me wish Mallahan came across as less of skeezedork.  I may be the only one who thinks this, but he may be even a less TV-friendly candidate than Gregoire.

***

I went to the Approve R-71 meeting tonight.  It was fun (for being full of old people) and they seem to have their resources together.  Their web site is crazy long (http://approvereferendum71.org/), though.  Not that Reject R-71 (http://www.protectmarriagewa.com/)'s web site is much better, and I'm amused that they still have a video up that loads in preview pane as saying "Support Referendum 71."  Also their signs are ugly/scary and kind of look like they say "Reject Marriage."

I tried to get the state coordinator to tell me what their internal polling showed but she wouldn't, other than saying the 2009 electorate is different from "all voters" and that voters responded best when the issue was framed in the macro (hospital visitation, end-of-life, etc.)  Not really news to us.  On the plus side, she liked my hat.

***

I wonder how annoyed Tim Eyman is at being ignored like this.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 17, 2009, 11:21:27 AM
I wonder how annoyed Tim Eyman is at being ignored like this.

I fear that the lack of media attention will allow it to slip through. It's kind of silly because I-1033, if it passes, will have a far, far, far greater impact on this state then R-71 ever will, and of course that impact will be horrendously negative.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on September 17, 2009, 08:10:01 PM
()

Marriage, hm...?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 17, 2009, 09:30:32 PM

Well if that's the game they're going to play then we might as well have put marriage on the ballot.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on September 17, 2009, 09:39:59 PM
Are you gonna "Reject Marriage = One man, One woman"?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 19, 2009, 04:47:02 PM
BTW, "Gayrightsapalooza" is my favorite thread name so far. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 21, 2009, 11:39:21 PM
Among the many gems in Reject R-71's voters' guide statement, my favorite:

Quote
Reject Senate Bill 5688 to Protect Children!

SB 5688 redefines terms such as “husband” and “wife” to be construed as “gender neutral.” The new law will confuse children and likely result in public schools influencing children to accept a new definition of the “family unit” so that same-sex partners will be a recognized norm.

OH NOES! THE CHILDREN WILL BE CONFUSED!!!!11!!!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on September 22, 2009, 09:34:22 AM
Oh, sh**t. They're not happy enough with us just letting them exist? Now they want people to respect them?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on September 22, 2009, 09:37:28 AM
I wonder how annoyed Tim Eyman is at being ignored like this.

I fear that the lack of media attention will allow it to slip through. It's kind of silly because I-1033, if it passes, will have a far, far, far greater impact on this state then R-71 ever will, and of course that impact will be horrendously negative.

Speaking of I-1033, how is that faring in the polls right now? 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 22, 2009, 09:39:51 AM
I wonder how annoyed Tim Eyman is at being ignored like this.

I fear that the lack of media attention will allow it to slip through. It's kind of silly because I-1033, if it passes, will have a far, far, far greater impact on this state then R-71 ever will, and of course that impact will be horrendously negative.

Speaking of I-1033, how is that faring in the polls right now? 

I don't know if I've seen a single poll on it. Alcon?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on September 22, 2009, 10:22:40 AM
()

Quote
On the cover is a photo of the most traditional American Families  [sic] from the 1950's television series, Ozzie & Harriett. David and Ricky Nelson really had it pretty good.  They had a normal mother and father and grandparents.  We simply want this for tomorrow's children and families.


If they keep running on marriage, and lose, won't it make it harder for them to seriously campaign against the real same-sex marriage bill?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 22, 2009, 11:12:31 AM
I'm shocked by how homophobic they're making their campaign. I was expecting more of a "gay people are perfectly fine, it's just that they shouldn't have special status"-type thing and not "gay people aren't normal and will confuse your children".


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Badger on September 22, 2009, 12:17:16 PM
I'm shocked by how homophobic they're making their campaign. I was expecting more of a "gay people are perfectly fine, it's just that they shouldn't have special status"-type thing and not "gay people aren't normal and will confuse your children".
Its what's in the hearts of the activists running the campaign. They just can't help themselves.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 22, 2009, 01:40:09 PM
I haven't seen any polls specifically on I-1033 or R-71, just the tracking question from 2007 (UW poll) that follows the general parameters of the latter.

I'll put my foot in the water to see what's going on on that.

Edit: Elway released a poll today, but only to subscribers (boo, I'll try harder).  Washington Poll says they'll get on it mid-October.  No idea who to contact about SUSA, but I guess that's KING-5's prerogative.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 22, 2009, 11:46:54 PM
R-71 poll released by the Approve campaign (Washington Families Standing Together or whatever):

Approve 51%
Reject 44%
Undecided 5%

Reasons why this poll might be crap:
* Who is Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and what are they doing determining a 2009 likely voter in my state?
* 51% is nowhere near where this question shows up
* Them's there mighty convenient numbers for R-71 fundraising purposes.  Close, but a lead.

Reasons why it might not be:
* They actually specify the question asked, and it's the one on the ballot.
* Off-year voters are older and more conservative, blablablabla.
* We're calling Likely Democratic voters in King County, and let me tell ya, we're getting our share of strong opposition.

Your call.

Today's Elway has not leaked...yet.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on September 23, 2009, 12:03:35 AM
R-71 poll released by the Approve campaign (Washington Families Standing Together or whatever):

Approve 51%
Reject 44%
Undecided 5%

Reasons why this poll might be crap:
* Who is Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and what are they doing determining a 2009 likely voter in my state?
* 51% is nowhere near where this question shows up
* Them's there mighty convenient numbers for R-71 fundraising purposes.  Close, but a lead.

Reasons why it might not be:
* They actually specify the question asked, and it's the one on the ballot.
* Off-year voters are older and more conservative, blablablabla.
* We're calling Likely Democratic voters in King County, and let me tell ya, we're getting our share of strong opposition.

Your call.

Today's Elway has not leaked...yet.

I will be very disapointed in Washington if we manage to fail this. Though I feel like the equally big worry is I-1033 (which I feel is likelier to pass and could have a horrible impact on the state)...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Verily on September 23, 2009, 01:07:03 AM
GQR is one of the major national Democratic pollsters. They usually do campaign internals for Democrats. I would "trust" their polling, except obviously they are an internal pollster and so this is probably not the only poll they've done for the Approve campaign. (Whether the other results are better or worse for R-71 is up for grabs since it definitely makes sense for the Approve R-71 campaigners to want a poll result that shows them ahead but in some danger.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Mechaman on September 26, 2009, 01:17:16 AM

Fixed


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 29, 2009, 05:44:01 PM
Two polls out on I-1033 (Eyman's TABOR).  First, Rasmussen Reports on behalf of Eyman's campaign with the ballot title read.  The results:

Definitely Favor 21%
Probably Favor 40%
Probably Oppose 17%
Definitely Oppose 14%
Not Sure 8%

...which translates into 61-31, or 21-14, depending how you want to look at it.  The more obvious conclusion:  Swing voters have no idea what I-1033 is quite yet, but they like the general sound of it.  Eyman's been here before and failed, but it's not much time and it's been a low-profile issue.  He may make this one through.

The other is an Elway Poll:

Yes 46%
No 22%
Undecided 32%

Not much to say there -- pretty much an artificially greater push of leaners (to isolate pure undecideds) that results in about the same outcome.

Elway also finds that Referendum 71 is too close to call (sigh!!!):

Approve 46%
Disapprove 41%
Undecided 17%

...With 10 percent of voters being wrong-way, slightly hurting the Approve side more.  Among Most Likely voters the result was 48-40, intriguing.  As with many Elway polls, the subsamples (which are based on very small samples) are kind of whack.

Yet again:  Sigh.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 29, 2009, 05:46:07 PM
Once people realize it's an Eyman initiative, the "definitely oppose" should shoot up to 35-40%!

Also, I will be very surpised if R71 doesn't pass by a large margin.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on September 29, 2009, 10:47:57 PM
Once people realize it's an Eyman initiative, the "definitely oppose" should shoot up to 35-40%!

Also, I will be very surpised if R71 doesn't pass by a large margin.

Many people thought that Prop 8 would fail... but then look what happened.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 29, 2009, 10:53:37 PM
Fuck direct democracy.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 29, 2009, 11:22:48 PM
Once people realize it's an Eyman initiative, the "definitely oppose" should shoot up to 35-40%!

Also, I will be very surpised if R71 doesn't pass by a large margin.

Many people thought that Prop 8 would fail... but then look what happened.

1) I think Washington would've rejected Prop 8 had we voted on it.
2) This isn't gay marriage! It's not even civil unions. It's domestic-friggin-partnerships. Even Arizona was against such an extensive gay rights ban, and South Dakota almost was as well.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 30, 2009, 12:39:59 PM
After a bad news cycle for Mallahan, it's a tie for Seattle mayor, SUSA (9/29) (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8b035741-c19e-4275-8642-4d342bee8b03):

Mallahan 38% (-3)
McGinn 38% (+2)

Mallahan's base remains older and more conservative, but the all-important suburban left-center vote seems to have trended a bit McGinn.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on September 30, 2009, 04:38:58 PM
After a bad news cycle for Mallahan, it's a tie for Seattle mayor, SUSA (9/29) (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8b035741-c19e-4275-8642-4d342bee8b03):

Mallahan 38% (-3)
McGinn 38% (+2)

Mallahan's base remains older and more conservative, but the all-important suburban left-center vote seems to have trended a bit McGinn.

I am expecting low turnout that will help Mallahan.t


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 30, 2009, 04:49:01 PM
After a bad news cycle for Mallahan, it's a tie for Seattle mayor, SUSA (9/29) (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8b035741-c19e-4275-8642-4d342bee8b03):

Mallahan 38% (-3)
McGinn 38% (+2)

Mallahan's base remains older and more conservative, but the all-important suburban left-center vote seems to have trended a bit McGinn.

I am expecting low turnout that will help Mallahan.t

I would normally too (because senior citizens vote in hilarious numbers) but look what happened with the primary...it's hard to say.  I don't have much faith in municipal off-year polling anyway.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on October 02, 2009, 11:32:10 AM
Is everyone aware that the last time Protect Marriage Washington asked for donations was back in September 15th? Curious.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 02, 2009, 10:26:47 PM
Is everyone aware that the last time Protect Marriage Washington asked for donations was back in September 15th? Curious.

My (increasingly insider and increasingly less mantra-filtered) impression is that there is less sturm und drang about this among upper-level people.  I don't really know why but there doesn't seem to be any sort of freak-out.  Either it's been inevitable or...something else is going on.

The money battle seems less significant than the volunteer fight.  I imagine Reject R-71 is not doing remarkably hot there, either, since their campaign is somewhat underground.  They are extensively contacting faith leaders, though, and that is an impressive turnout machine.  They could win on that alone.  There are a TON of occasional voters on both sides' targeting lists and it takes an immense amount of manpower to do adequate contact and follow-up with all of them.  Getting TV presence is a cinch compared to that.

It's definitely nothing like a Prop. 8 dynamic where voter turnout mattered much less, after all.

For my part, I've registered about 150 new voters and my ballot tracking/email list is pushing 500.  If only every university had an organizer like me, we'd rock this sh**t :P.  Oh how I miss sleep.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 03, 2009, 07:56:24 PM
I believe Cathy Pearsall-Stipek is trying to lose her race. The photo she submitted to The News Tribune:

()

I mean what. the. fuck.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 04, 2009, 09:57:38 PM
http://www.seattlepi.com/local/6420ap_wa_union_push.html

Are the inevitable cracks finally starting to form in the GOP's domination of South Central Washington...? :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 04, 2009, 10:04:00 PM
Awaken from your slumber my Hispanic-voting monster


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on October 04, 2009, 10:47:09 PM
Hmm... this could turn areas like Pasco, Yakima and Walla Walla into much more competitive areas. Especially if the new regulations being put into place by Obama do increase the time it takes to get citizenship.

Rise Democrats, Rise!

Though it is not as if Washington hasn't become freakishly hard for the republicans in the last 10 or so years.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 04, 2009, 10:59:18 PM
Though it is not as if Washington hasn't become freakishly hard for the republicans in the last 10 or so years.

I won't be happy until every single one of them is voted out of office! :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on October 05, 2009, 09:36:50 AM
So... everyone is aware that Approve 71 is kinda doing a crappy job right? Or maybe that's just me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 05, 2009, 01:11:02 PM
So... everyone is aware that Approve 71 is kinda doing a crappy job right? Or maybe that's just me.

What do you see them as doing badly?  I can forward complaints and criticisms to ye higher-ups.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 05, 2009, 03:16:21 PM
Yea, I'm kind of curious as well. I mean I don't think it's the best campaign I've ever seen but I don't think they're doing badly.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on October 05, 2009, 04:15:29 PM
Maybe I was a little bitchy, but I dunno. I mean, why are they letting opponents redefine the issue as marriage? This really bugs me. All I've seen is this 2 minute ad with a huge chunk of writing talking about the law... really unappealing. Are they identifying voters and preparing to GOTV? Voting day is in less than a month, after all.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 05, 2009, 09:44:01 PM
Microsoft just chucked in 100k for the Approve side


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on October 05, 2009, 10:29:00 PM
Microsoft just chucked in 100k for the Approve side

I love Microsoft. And this is not me just talking because of the perks of living near such a rich corporation.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 05, 2009, 11:01:14 PM
Maybe I was a little bitchy, but I dunno. I mean, why are they letting opponents redefine the issue as marriage? This really bugs me.

Meh, I think the ballot question mentioning "marriage" (but also "this is not marriage") has taken the issue framing to its eventual place -- kind of between the intent of the Approve ("TOTALLY NOT MARRIAGE") and Reject ("YEA ITS MARRIAGE") camp.

All I've seen is this 2 minute ad with a huge chunk of writing talking about the law... really unappealing.

No one's on TV yet, because of how fundraising and TV stuff works.  That won't last.

No one has their mind changed by two-minute YouTube activist spot videos, no worries about that.  It wasn't official and I agree it wasn't very good (some of the gays look a little, uh, too gay?)

Are they identifying voters and preparing to GOTV? Voting day is in less than a month, after all.

Yeah, the campaign is working from a list of Likely Democratic voters who aren't regular in off-year elections (1/3ers basically.)  Follow-ups by mail, that kind of thing.  The main struggle is getting phonebanking staffers.  I can't imagine either side is doing great with that, it's really not enjoyable work.

Microsoft just chucked in 100k for the Approve side

Had to hold that in for about a week.  If it's not already clear, Microsoft really, really likes us on this.  And will continue to, if you want to make any inferences from that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on October 06, 2009, 09:12:06 AM
Ah, that ad is web only? It had some good visuals but it was the text that killed it... having an announcer say parts of it would be effective, I think. And I like how the campaign is basically making seniors feel guilty if they vote against it.

Are you guys just targeting Democratic voters or Independents too? And yay Microsoft.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 06, 2009, 09:14:08 AM
Phonebanking on an issue like this would be hell. Are you actually trying to make persuasion calls or just ID calls?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 06, 2009, 12:24:07 PM
I just got my ballot. Well ballots because it's Pierce County.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 06, 2009, 02:01:24 PM
One of my target voters with a mailing address in Centralia, but a physical address in Tacoma, got her ballot today too.  That's...proactive.

Phonebanking on an issue like this would be hell. Are you actually trying to make persuasion calls or just ID calls?

A hybrid.  And the best part?  They make us ask the voter on a scale of 1 to 5 how likely they are to support the law, with 5 being least likely.  Wtf unintuitive.  It's not that awful, though.  The software is good.  It just happens that phone communication seems incredibly archaic and frustrating to anyone used to communicating in the Internet age.  Among the few people you actually get ahold of, I have to say that even those that disagree have been almost universally civil.  But few people are friendly, and that plus the evasion/wrong numbers/foreigners/confusion becomes really draining by about three hours.  It's no wonder no one wants to do it.  And old people are scared by the computers we have to use.

We were getting a noticeable minority in opposition, but I figure that infrequent voters are more likely to be downscale.  On the other hand, they're substantially less likely to be seniors, and this is King County.  Eh.  I've stopped paying attention.  I don't even trust the polls.

Holmes:  They don't say specifically, but dollars to donuts we're targeting Likely Democrats.  We don't have party registration, so we rely on self-identification phone surveys and caucus/primary turnout for this.  It's pretty clear that there is a decent amount of error in the database to anyone who has used it extensively.  In fact, there are some voters who are just randomly listed as having partisan leans without any actual information to substantiate it.  I have no idea how or why.

I don't know if Meeker can shed any more light on this, but my intuition is that -- beyond Presidential primary preference and caucus turnout -- VoteBuilder identification is largely a pretty ineffective mechanism for targeting voters, even if it's the best system in a no-registration state.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 06, 2009, 02:17:46 PM
Looks like the Corzine campaign has a new volunteer (http://www.exit133.com/5523/mr-hill-goes-to-washington)!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on October 06, 2009, 02:54:23 PM
http://www.seattlepi.com/local/6420ap_wa_union_push.html

Are the inevitable cracks finally starting to form in the GOP's domination of South Central Washington...? :)

Interesting.  We do have a large agriculture industry here.  And as the article notes, it certainly puts a local angle on the simmering card-check debate.

It doesn't surprise me that Microsoft is supporting Approve I-71 vigorously.  I worked there in the late 1990s and while I hated that job, I was impressed at how gay friendly the place was.  Quite a few employees were out.  They have a group called Gay and Lesbian Employees at Microsoft (GLEAM) and I surmise they have been important in pushing for rights, including when the corporation initially went wobbly after threats from the loathsome Rev. Hutcherson. 

Unfortunately, I fear that Tim Eyman's horrible new initiative (I-1033) is going to pass.  Social conservatism doesn't have much traction in Washington state, but playing on anti-tax sentiment is often quite effective. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 06, 2009, 04:43:58 PM
http://www.seattlepi.com/local/6420ap_wa_union_push.html

Are the inevitable cracks finally starting to form in the GOP's domination of South Central Washington...? :)

Interesting.  We do have a large agriculture industry here.  And as the article notes, it certainly puts a local angle on the simmering card-check debate.

It doesn't surprise me that Microsoft is supporting Approve I-71 vigorously.  I worked there in the late 1990s and while I hated that job, I was impressed at how gay friendly the place was.  Quite a few employees were out.  They have a group called Gay and Lesbian Employees at Microsoft (GLEAM) and I surmise they have been important in pushing for rights, including when the corporation initially went wobbly after threats from the loathsome Rev. Hutcherson. 

Unfortunately, I fear that Tim Eyman's horrible new initiative (I-1033) is going to pass.  Social conservatism doesn't have much traction in Washington state, but playing on anti-tax sentiment is often quite effective. 

I-1033 is scary. The county results will be interesting. I always like seeing Whitman becoming one of the most pro-tax counties on these initiative votes. A lot of "conservatives" there change their tune when funding to WSU is threatened.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 06, 2009, 08:46:35 PM
New SUSA polls:

REFERENDUM 71
Accept 45%
Reject 42%

I-1033
Yes 45%
No 35%

Bleh.  Still betting on that easy pass, bgwah?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 06, 2009, 09:21:32 PM
... Yes :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 06, 2009, 09:45:57 PM
I hate this state sometimes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on October 07, 2009, 11:33:27 AM
Damn Washington, chu got some crazy fundies.

http://vimeo.com/6853620

Didn't know California could be outclassed. They're not even pulling that in Maine... where there actually is a same-sex marriage law up for a vote! Can't you just wait for the real marriage law to come up for a vote?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 07, 2009, 01:16:53 PM
Damn Washington, chu got some crazy fundies.

http://vimeo.com/6853620

Didn't know California could be outclassed. They're not even pulling that in Maine... where there actually is a same-sex marriage law up for a vote! Can't you just wait for the real marriage law to come up for a vote?

I've said numerous times that the only reason a rich libertarian state like Washington is so Democratic is because our Republican Party is downright insane.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 07, 2009, 01:30:22 PM
New SUSA polls:

REFERENDUM 71
Accept 45%
Reject 42%

I-1033
Yes 45%
No 35%

What are they votes on?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 07, 2009, 01:38:57 PM
R71 = Domestic partnerships

I-1033 = Relates to property taxes, I would just look here: http://no1033.com/index.php?page=display&sub=1&id=6


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on October 07, 2009, 04:08:45 PM
Damn Washington, chu got some crazy fundies.

http://vimeo.com/6853620

Didn't know California could be outclassed. They're not even pulling that in Maine... where there actually is a same-sex marriage law up for a vote! Can't you just wait for the real marriage law to come up for a vote?

That is because the moderate Republicans one often finds in the Northeast are not at all like the ones in Washington state.  The WA GOP and its affiliates are batsh!t crazy in their extremism.  The 1996 Republican Gubernatorial nominee, Ellen Craswell, ran on "God's plan" for Washington state.  We are one of the most ideologically polarized states in the nation, although on balance the left outnumbers the right.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on October 08, 2009, 09:21:44 AM
Here's another one for you guys.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6BFnc6EEpn8

Turnout might be high in eastern Washington. :o


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 08, 2009, 09:45:42 AM
On the slightly plus side these ads are so grossly offensive and misleading that all the papers are going to have a field day on their editorial pages. Winning over the readers of the editorial pages is not how we're going to win this race though.

C'mon Washington. See through this crap. I know you've got it in you.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 09, 2009, 09:34:33 PM
R-71 roundup!!1

* Breaking:  A Republican fundraiser has opened a Reject R-71 PAC (http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2009/10/09/new-pac-plans-major-funrdraising-to-reject-r-71), and is "pretty optimistic" about a significant inward cash-flow.  The deadline for donations over $5,000 is October 12nd, indicating that this may be the predicted inflow of cash from religious organizations/major donors.

* Although the Catholic Church doesn't actually recognize civil relationships anyway, they're sending an optional-distribution letter to their parishes to reject R-71 (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2010035352_was_catholic_bishops_no_on_r-7.html?syndication=rss).  And I-1033, interestingly.  (Religious organizations can say whatever they damn well please about ballot measures.)

* Someone asked about ads:  Equal Rights Washington is running this (http://equalrightswashington.org/amiprotected/) sixty-second ad on cheap-buy cable networks in suburban and Eastern Washington.  (God, I remember how upsetting it was to even read the basic "lady died in her basement" news story back then; that is a tough ad.)  That's all.  Campaigns don't like ads getting stale before ballots go out, and in a sub-$5 million campaign, ad cuts/buys are fiscally limited.

* I can only speak in generalities (how annoying is that?), but I'll say this:  Every campaign as moneyed as Approve R-71 I've seen has done television ads.  Reject R-71's ad ability probably hinges entirely on the aforementioned influx, but I doubt the Republican guy is lying.

*Approve R-71's ultimate scenario is a high turnout where only they run ads, or if not, there's a backlash against Reject R-71's ads.  Reject R-71's ads eschew suppressing voter and hope that they can freak out sympathetic seniors, while turning out the base.  But a raised profile (which these ads give) could also hurt them.  The reality is, though, that scary ads are effective.

* This (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsVYuGwAuR0&feature=related) is one of the "related" videos for both Reject R-71 ads.  Uh?

Meanwhile, a high-profile R-71 fight is, weirdly, kind of good news for Tim Eyman.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 10, 2009, 12:39:02 PM
Here's WAFST's first ad, which is obviously a television cut:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=va7-nEAkxx0&feature=player_embedded#at=32

Adorable.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 10, 2009, 01:06:45 PM
Here's WAFST's first ad, which is obviously a television cut:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=va7-nEAkxx0&feature=player_embedded#at=32

Adorable.

omg I want to hug them

A+ job on the talent search. Sweet elderly lesbian couples FTW.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 10, 2009, 01:09:35 PM
Really shows you who the decent people in this election are. One focuses their campaign on happiness and love, while the other focuses on fear, hate, and lies.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on October 10, 2009, 06:09:42 PM
As part of the young democrats we just hosted a debate on R-71 at our campus. We invited a speaker and we let the republicans invite a speaker. We probably managed to get 175 or so people to attend. It was hilarious, the republican speaker compared homosexuals to rapists and child-molesters, then cited the bible and said that our human rights came from the 10 commandments not the US constitution. Many of those who came in support of the republicans were insulted, and I won't even talk about how angry our local LGBT alliance was. Basically we had a mediocre speaker and theirs ruined any chance they had to convince anyone to come to their side.

Oh and after the debate we got about 25-30 volunteers to sign up.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 10, 2009, 06:26:14 PM
Too bad you didn't videotape it. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on October 10, 2009, 06:28:49 PM
Too bad you didn't videotape it. :)

I didn't videotape it but the university TV station did. So now everyone will know about the "gay agenda", and yes he actually referred to the movement as such.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 10, 2009, 08:17:59 PM
What was this Reject guy's name, I'm curious?  I actually heard about the Gonzaga fiasco all the way over here.  Apparently the less fire-and-brimstone Reject team in Spokane County is reeling from bad word-of-mouth.

On the other hand, apparently the King County Reject people are smartly blanketing minority neighborhoods in Southeast Seattle.  Although it's worth noting that minority hatred of gays is somewhat overrated.  The King County Charter Amendment banning orientation by sexual discrimination easily passed every Seattle precinct, and that was in 2008 with high black turnout.  Still, it's clever.

This is completely meaningless for all practical purposes, but the (Spokane) Spokesman-Review, one of only two Washington newspapers to endorse McCain in 2008 (the other being the critically important Centralia Chronicle) has given a pretty unapologetic Approve R-71 (http://www.spokesmanreview.com/mobile/story.asp?ID=307341) endorsement.  Anyone who thinks this matters that much need only look at Prop. 8 (the endorsements were, what, like 50:1 against?).  Still, this is good news and kind of cool symbolism.  Now we wait with bated breath for the Chronicle, obviously.

And for fun, this is the previous gay rights vote (sexual orientation discrimination) that failed massively in 1997, adjusted to about where Ref. 71 is polling now in public polls.  Hard adjustment, so be wary (evidence is that urban areas have seen a bigger increase than rural ones, and SW Washington was abnormally for this due to media markets):

()

By % Approve extrapolated (2008 colors, with purple indicating a 2004-2008 flip):

Lincoln 37.74%
Lewis 38.40%
Adams 38.92%
Garfield 39.13%
Franklin 39.28%
Grant 39.57%
Benton 41.00%
Stevens 41.13%
Columbia 41.29%
Douglas 42.13%
Yakima 43.45%
Pend Oreille 43.63%
Okanogan 43.81%
Walla Walla 45.61%
Grays Harbor 45.69%
Ferry 45.83%
Mason 45.95%
Klickitat 46.33%
Chelan 46.36%
Asotin 46.41%
Kittitas 47.09%
Skagit 48.70%
Spokane 49.08%
Clallam 49.51%
Wahkiakum 49.63%
***
Island 50.13%
Pierce 50.70%
Snohomish 50.73%
Skamania 50.96%
Kitsap 51.03%
Whitman 51.13%
Cowlitz 51.94%
Pacific 51.96%
Whatcom 52.81%
Thurston 55.14%
Clark 55.66%
Jefferson 58.12%
King 62.99%
San Juan 67.67%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 11, 2009, 11:14:43 AM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2010040661_rally11m.html

Apparently Christians escaping persecution deserve freedom here in the U.S., but the gays living here already don't.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on October 11, 2009, 01:53:14 PM
This blog entry has pictures: http://www.pamshouseblend.com/diary/13454/russian-radicalright-sends-its-children-to-cheerlead-bigotry

California's not the only state with a loud homophobic Slavic community.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 11, 2009, 03:31:41 PM
This blog entry has pictures: http://www.pamshouseblend.com/diary/13454/russian-radicalright-sends-its-children-to-cheerlead-bigotry

California's not the only state with a loud homophobic Slavic community.

Out of all of the Slavic protesters in that article, only one (the leader) is registered to vote, and he's never cast a ballot.

They're an extremely vocal, outwardly homophobic minority, but they don't really have much voting power outside of a precinct or two in Auburn.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 11, 2009, 10:15:45 PM
WHY DO COLLEGE STUDENTS NOT VOTE FOR ANYTHING THAT IS NOT THE FIRST BLACK PRESIDENT


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on October 11, 2009, 10:49:46 PM
WHY DO COLLEGE STUDENTS NOT VOTE FOR ANYTHING THAT IS NOT THE FIRST BLACK PRESIDENT

Agreed. Sometimes I get really annoyed with how the young and liberal vote is so apathetic.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 11, 2009, 10:51:49 PM
WHY DO COLLEGE STUDENTS NOT VOTE FOR ANYTHING THAT IS NOT THE FIRST BLACK PRESIDENT

Agreed. Sometimes I get really annoyed with how the young and liberal vote is so apathetic.

Seriously.  I called three people who signed a stupid protest roster the College Gay-Lesbian-Whatever put out.  All three of them were still interested in the protest, but calling their parents to get their ballots from home?

Gee, I dunno, I called them last week.

It's a good thing that baseline LV models probably estimate 2007ish turnout for the youth vote, because it sure isn't going to be much this year.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 11, 2009, 11:00:29 PM
I did change my mailing address, but I'll have to make sure they don't end up sending it to my Sammamish house!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on October 11, 2009, 11:30:50 PM
The ads for the pro gay rights side are way better (the ones in Maine are also superior), but it doesn't seem like this will pass unless turnout occurs. There seems to be a gloomy feeling of apathy these days, but maybe its just the difference between last year's memorable and long election to the nearly invisible ones this year. I guess I'm just bored of my AP Gov class, probably the least opinionated bunch of teenagers I have ever met...

Anyways, I really hope Ref71 passes, I might try to find time to go and help them out... but I was hoping this would just pass easily.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on October 12, 2009, 12:32:39 AM
I guess I'm just bored of my AP Gov class, probably the least opinionated bunch of teenagers I have ever met...

Going out on a limb here, but the regular Gov class is probably worse.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 12, 2009, 01:29:55 AM
Anyways, I really hope Ref71 passes, I might try to find time to go and help them out... but I was hoping this would just pass easily.

We really need phonebanking people badly.

I'm not just saying that as campaign mantra, seriously, we need people.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 12, 2009, 11:00:50 AM
The News Tribune. for some unfathomable reason, has endorsed Jim Merritt for mayor of Tacoma.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 13, 2009, 12:32:14 AM
TNT will endorse Approve on Referendum 71 tomorrow in an endorsement that mentions gay marriage way too many times to be helpful.  Link (http://blog.thenewstribune.com/opinion/2009/10/12/approve-r-71-to-fulfill-promise-of-civil-unions/).

The Federal Way Mirror, which I think has a fairly liberal editorial board, goes with what I imagine will be the conventional initiative endorsement split (no I-1033, approve 71 (http://www.pnwlocalnews.com/south_king/fwm/opinion/64060927.html))

The Bellingham City Council voted to endorse no on I-1033 and approve on Ref 71.  (An old liberal dude on the council abstained on the 71 thing for some reason)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 13, 2009, 04:31:58 AM
Only 29 more posts before he can join the PCP!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on October 13, 2009, 08:05:18 AM
On a more serious note, fake poster or not, it's interesting to see the opposition has now basically resorted to always saying "leave me be" or "don't call me a bigot" or whatever after they talk.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 13, 2009, 08:00:46 PM
On a more serious note, fake poster or not, it's interesting to see the opposition has now basically resorted to always saying "leave me be" or "don't call me a bigot" or whatever after they talk.

It is kind of amusing when people peripherally touch on underlying concepts of American political philosophy completely selectively.  There are complicated issues of the definition of liberty underlying here, but the whole "I vote the way I vote and it's none of your business" thing is kind of indefensibly hilarious.

***

MONEYS!

As people who followed this closely will know, yesterday was the last day for big-ass donations.  The culmination of the ominous Reject R-71 PAC was basically one $200k donation from Focus on the Family and its local branch, the Family Policy Institute.  Actually, no, I stand corrected:  a Mr. Dave Mortenson of Kent also donated $40.53 to the PAC.  Yes, really.  Half of that money has already been spent on radio ads.

Meanwhile, Approve R-71 did twice as well last-minute, netting big donations from the likes of Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer, who actually hasn't voted since 2004 but apparently was harassed by his wife or something.  Either way, their net total was over $400,000 higher than last Friday.  Only an eighth of that was from the Microsofties, so Approve R-71 is kicking butt among small-scale donors -- not an unhappy thing going into a period where the maximum donation is under $5k.

Together, Reject R-71 groups have reported a total kitty of $260,155.46.  That means that Focus on the Family is funding over three-quarters of their campaign.  In addition, they have already spent $136,116.18, or 52% of their cumulative total.  That's all been on radio ads (the tone of which has become more moderate since Reject R-71 PAC got involved) and they probably do not have enough money for much in the way of TV.

Contrastingly, Approve R-71 groups report $1,263,512.64 in donations.  Of that, $288,267.49 has been spent.  That means that just 23% of their money has been spent so far.  That means that Approve R-71's cash-in-hand outweighs Reject R-71's by a ratio of nearly 9 to 1.

The good news for Reject R-71 is that they now have an underdog narrative.  The bad news for Reject R-71 is that they probably won't have any TV ads to say that on.  And there are few things dangerous to an initiative more than a TV vacuum.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 13, 2009, 08:05:10 PM
Do underdog narratives really help ballot measures in the same way they do candidates? I'd be inclined to think less so.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on October 13, 2009, 08:25:52 PM
I guess I'm just bored of my AP Gov class, probably the least opinionated bunch of teenagers I have ever met...

Going out on a limb here, but the regular Gov class is probably worse.

yeah, way worse - there isn't a regular gov class.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 13, 2009, 08:38:45 PM
Do underdog narratives really help ballot measures in the same way they do candidates? I'd be inclined to think less so.

On something like Initiative 1033, I'd say so.  On Ref-71, only if they spun the "this is gay interests putting their lives before yours!" thing very ably.  I think the radio ads hint toward a campaign partially built on this (completely nonsensical) narrative.  But I imagine they'll just pay GOTV, continue the "when times are tough, we can't afford a 0.01% decrease in tax revenues...especially for them" campaign and call it a day.  I'm hardly an expert but it seems like Prop. 8 managed to play the victim/underdog card pretty decently, especially after the tasteless Mormon ad.  But I don't think Reject R-71 will get enough air time to be able to do something as complex as that.

Just to more specifically qualify what I said:  Being massively outspent and barely having enough money to run a GOTV campaign with limited ads is never good even if it gets you a narrative.

I'm just trying to think of whether Reject R-71 has any more rabbits to pull out of its hat, and I don't think they do.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 14, 2009, 01:26:20 PM
SUSA

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9622a0f2-7f20-4f4a-834f-4133ad3eb471

Hutchison 47%
Constantine 42%

PubliCola Poll (700 LV):

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/archives/181928.asp?source=rss

Mallahan 36.5%
McGinn 30.1%
Undecided 33.5% (yikes)

Also: Mallahan is out of money


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 14, 2009, 02:44:56 PM
So one poll with the crazy ahead and another poll which probably sucks. Great.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on October 14, 2009, 05:07:08 PM
By the way Bgwah, Larry Stickney himself was the No on Ref. 71 debater we had over here at Gonzaga. Remember this is the guy who has married three times, was accused of beating his wife and refused to send his daughter to college.

Oh and by the way No on I-1033 got a ton of money last minute, with a good amount coming from Gates.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 14, 2009, 06:39:58 PM
Disturbing, but Hutchison is doing and saying all the right things. Of course, when she tries to get detailed she proves how she doesn't know what she's talking about (link (http://hugeasscity.com/2009/10/13/oy/)), but the average swing voter (remember, swing voters are idiots who don't vote on issues) isn't going to realize that.

Personally, I still suspect Constantine will win, but Hutchison is doing better than I originally anticipated and I'll admit I'm worried.

For comparison, SUSA's early October poll for the 2005 (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac2f9325-3b63-4d88-9868-3bd153f79aac) race showed Sims beating Irons by 5, and in the end Sims won by 16.

By the way Bgwah, Larry Stickney himself was the No on Ref. 71 debater we had over here at Gonzaga. Remember this is the guy who has married three times, was accused of beating his wife and refused to send his daughter to college.

Haha, wow. But the hypocrisy "family values" figures is well known. For example, they say we need to "protect our children," and I'm left wondering "How many children has the average anti-gay bigot adopted?" Probably close to 0. You see, it's an abomination when an orphan is given a home with loving parents, but if they rot in some orphanage or starve on the streets? Meh, who cares! It's quite obvious that most of the "reasons" for opposing gay rights are a thin veil to cover their primitive cultist hatreds.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on October 14, 2009, 06:42:21 PM
I guess I'm just bored of my AP Gov class, probably the least opinionated bunch of teenagers I have ever met...

Going out on a limb here, but the regular Gov class is probably worse.

yeah, way worse - there isn't a regular gov class.

Your school is weird.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on October 14, 2009, 10:25:13 PM
$1.2 million in a short amount of time for a domestic partnership referendum is pretty good... they'd better stay on good terms with their donors for the next couple of election cycles when the big same-sex marriage initiative comes up. If R-71 wins, that is, and it's looking better (to me) than last week or so. :)

(Also Reject R-71's numbers are telling but predictable, same thing happened in Maine where NOM, Focus on the Family and the Catholic Church were like 70% of Q3 donations for Yes on 1.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 14, 2009, 10:27:06 PM
Quite frankly, if R-71 is approved, they might as well legalize gay marriage since this is becoming a gay marriage vote even if it's actually only domestic partnerships.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on October 14, 2009, 10:33:55 PM
And it'll still end up on the ballot anyway. But same-sex couples in Washington might get lucky and it'll end up on the 2010 ballot, or unlucky and it'll end up in an off-year ballot. By redefining R-71 about marriage(and losing), the opposition is basically disallowing itself to say "you, the voters of Washington, did not have a say when the activist legislators in Olympia passed the radical redefinition of marriage blah blah!" when the real same-sex marriage initiative comes to a vote.

Well, I say that, but they'll still give the whole "we're the voiceless victims righting the wrong and giving the people their say" speech, like always. Cause, you know, committee hearings and meetings with local legislators don't count as having a voice. But that's a totally different subject


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 15, 2009, 02:10:44 PM
Constantine's out with an ad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Oh1JPhHXko&feature=player_embedded

Not bad. The whole positive ad with cheery music but with negative bits spliced in thing is a little weird though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 15, 2009, 03:16:56 PM
Ooh, I like the Bellevue skyline at the end there. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 15, 2009, 09:55:23 PM
BAM: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2010073324_e-mail_constantine_was_prepare.html

Prepare for a depressing yet amusing Palinesque one term for Susan Hutchison followed by King County permanently turning into a permanent one party state in 2013... ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 15, 2009, 11:50:57 PM
Whoever wrote the endorsement for The Columbian (Vancouver) should be on WAFST's payroll.  It's completely brilliant; cerebral and emotional, and by the end, the average swing voter would probably think a Reject vote isn't even a viable opinion.  Nice, especially since the Portland media market will get less exposure -- something that has had surprisingly big effect on initiative results in SW Washington in the past.

http://www.columbian.com/article/20091015/OPINION02/710159941/-1/OPINION

Quote
The first thing voters need to know about Referendum 71 on the Nov. 3 ballot is precisely what question is being asked. Voters are being asked if they support Senate Bill 5688, which passed this year in the Legislature and expanded domestic partnerships. Voters are not being asked if they want to repeal that bill.

Thus, if you approve of fairness and equality for domestic partners, vote "Approve." We hope this will be your choice. The Columbian editorially applauded SB 5688 earlier this year.

It's also key to know that R-71 is not about gay marriage, despite dire warnings from those who advocate rejecting the measure. The ballot title specifies that "a domestic partnership is not a marriage." In fact, many domestic partners in our state are not gay. The law also allows domestic partnerships for unmarried, senior heterosexual couples.

The truth is, R-71 will have no impact whatsoever on your marriage or anyone else's. It will, however, affirm equality for the 12,300 Washingtonians who already have registered as domestic partners. Look at it this way: There might be some reason to debate whether certain rights should be extended to a particular group that does not already have them. For example, voting rights for incarcerated felons is an issue that could be reasonably argued. But to retroactively deny rights that already have been granted — freedoms thoroughly deliberated and extended by the Legislature and exercised by 12,300 people at no sacrifice or expense to anyone else — is simply unconscionable.

Voting for R-71 makes even more sense when one examines the specific rights extended by SB 5688. The bill protects sick leave to care for a domestic partner, unemployment and disability insurance benefits, business succession rights, adoption and child custody. In no way has granting these freedoms to some people infringed on the rights of other people, cost the detractors one dime, lowered their property value or harmed the citizenry in any way.

The real story of R-71 is further illuminated by reviewing the list of supporters and opponents. Those favoring R-71 include groups representing a broad spectrum of Washingtonians. More than 250 are listed at approvereferendum71.org. By contrast, foes offer only a smaller and narrowly defined coalition at protectmarriage wa.com. (But again, as the ballot states, this is not about marriage at all. It's about domestic partnerships).

Even more enlightenment arrives when voters examine the two men most responsible for forcing this issue onto the ballot: Larry Stickney (campaign manager) and Gary Randall (minister and former TV-show host). The Seattle Times on Wednesday described the attack by these two men on domestic partnerships: "They are unflinching in that conviction, despite messy personal histories that challenge their claim to the moral high ground. The twice-divorced Stickney … has denounced as blatantly untrue allegations from an ex-wife that he abused her.

"And Randall, an Oregon resident who can't vote on the measure he helped get on the ballot, has had a record of unpaid taxes, which he says he's since paid off."

It's astounding that these two self-appointed arbiters would judge the private, personal values of domestic partners. Yet the two men managed to secure enough signatures to get the measure on the ballot.

Voters should reject such narrow views and mark "Approve" on Referendum 71.

Nice.  (The Columbian is not a left-wing rag and endorsed Bush in '04.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 16, 2009, 04:46:01 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorials/2010079882_edit18exec.html

Could the Times possibly have more predictable endorsements?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 16, 2009, 06:19:39 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorials/2010079882_edit18exec.html

Could the Times possibly have more predictable endorsements?

http://soundpolitics.com/archives/013411.html

lol


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on October 16, 2009, 09:29:04 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorials/2010079882_edit18exec.html

Could the Times possibly have more predictable endorsements?

During the 1990s when I worked on my high school paper, we wrote better editorials than that.  I noticed they didn't say anything about her experience and qualifications compared to Constantine's, except to repeat over and over that she is an "outsider" who will bring "change."  This is just talking points and sloganeering, not analysis.  Their writing is, to put it generously, not persuasive.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 17, 2009, 03:12:08 PM
Is this how Republicans feel about Obama? We think Hutchison is an unqualified crazy closet-creationist, while they think he is an unqualified crazy closet-socialist. ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Badger on October 17, 2009, 04:35:21 PM
Is this how Republicans feel about Obama? We think Hutchison is an unqualified crazy closet-creationist, while they think he is an unqualified crazy closet-socialist. ;D

The difference is we're right.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 17, 2009, 04:55:46 PM
Hey, Tacoma area?  Getting optimistic about your housing market again?  Suck this!

http://www.thenewstribune.com/topstory/story/919317.html

Eww, maybe I should be glad Ladenburg lost.

Is this how Republicans feel about Obama? We think Hutchison is an unqualified crazy closet-creationist, while they think he is an unqualified crazy closet-socialist. ;D

The difference is we're right.

I agree. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on October 17, 2009, 10:21:19 PM
"That particular group of judges saw the law one way; we'll take it to the next group of judges that may have the opportunity to see it the correct way," said Stephen Pidgeon, attorney for the conservative religious organization. (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2010072420_webref7115m.html)

Is it November 4th yet? :P At least opposition in Maine acts tame towards same-sex couples in public.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 17, 2009, 11:06:12 PM
The News Tribune continues to surprise me by endorsing "No" on the IRV repeal.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on October 18, 2009, 01:50:05 PM
"That particular group of judges saw the law one way; we'll take it to the next group of judges that may have the opportunity to see it the correct way," said Stephen Pidgeon, attorney for the conservative religious organization. (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2010072420_webref7115m.html)

Is it November 4th yet? :P At least opposition in Maine acts tame towards same-sex couples in public.

We here in Washington have very, very conservative republicans. Which always feels odd considering how we are viewed politically by people from outside the state. Remember: this is where Glenn Beck came from. It is also why the state republican party has imploded over the last 10 years or so...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 20, 2009, 09:54:34 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBEkwOoRSCI

More please


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on October 20, 2009, 07:44:21 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBEkwOoRSCI

More please

This is my rebuttal. Both are great.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3VRllXxsRoo

Guys, I'm showing this to my childhood professor on Thursday. I can't wait to see what he says.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 21, 2009, 12:01:43 AM
According to SwingStateProject, here's the guy the GOP is likely going to have running against Murray: http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/archives/181621.asp

You really don't need to click the link to get an impression of how much of a threat this guy is. Just look at his picture:

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 21, 2009, 12:34:05 AM
According to SwingStateProject, here's the guy the GOP is likely going to have running against Murray: http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/archives/181621.asp

You really don't need to click the link to get an impression of how much of a threat this guy is. Just look at his picture:

()


Spotty voting record, no name recognition, apparently best known for creating a Facebook group.

Shoo-in.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on October 21, 2009, 12:50:13 AM
I suspect 2010 will be a quiet year for elections in Washington state, especially compared to the barn burners we had in 2004, 2006 and 2008.  For me the biggest drama is whether Murray will manage to crack 60%.  Running against her could be generously described as an attempt to increase name recognition for future races.  



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 21, 2009, 01:30:30 PM
SUSA, Seattle mayor (link (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9fc4240c-0d90-4328-b028-8897253a5455)):

Mallahan 43%
McGinn 36%

Among those who have already voted or who are complete liars (19%), Mallahan leads 48-44.

Mallahan, oddly, leads among all groups except for the young, liberals, non-college graduates, the working-class and Asians.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 21, 2009, 02:48:49 PM
Ladies and gentlemen, Sen. Val Stevens' latest email (http://protectmarriagewa.com/index.php/component/content/article/2-press-releases/195-important-message-from-sen-val-stevens-on-r-71) to Reject 71 supporters.  Highlights:

Quote
Could this be the final battle?

Are the homosexuals finally going to take control of our culture and push their depraved lifestyle on our children and families?

Passed last spring in the legislature, SB5688 would strip away the protections of traditional marriage that were ensured with the passage of DOMA (Defense of Marriage Act) just a few short years ago.

Do you realize what is going on here? Consider the following:

In 1970, (on the heels of a "free love" 60's radical culture) sodomy laws were repealed in Washington State, with government turning a blind eye to a behavior commonly considered perversion - and still the case with a majority of Americans.

Organizations, such as NAMBLA, (North American Man Boy Love Association) appeared on the horizon seeking to repeal "age of consent" laws (NAMBLA is still in business today).

After 27 years of relentless pursuit, homosexuals finally received protected class status from the Washington State Legislature in 2006, making it illegal for you to refuse to rent them a house, or hire them on account of their homosexuality.

Yikes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 21, 2009, 02:59:48 PM
SUSA, Seattle mayor (link (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9fc4240c-0d90-4328-b028-8897253a5455)):

Mallahan 43%
McGinn 36%

Among those who have already voted or who are complete liars (19%), Mallahan leads 48-44.

Mallahan, oddly, leads among all groups except for the young, liberals, non-college graduates, the working-class and Asians.

Most of those I can see, but I wonder why McGinn would lead amongst Asians. Yes, yes, sub-sample MoE and such, but still...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 21, 2009, 06:50:54 PM
Ladies and gentlemen, Sen. Val Stevens' latest email (http://protectmarriagewa.com/index.php/component/content/article/2-press-releases/195-important-message-from-sen-val-stevens-on-r-71) to Reject 71 supporters.  Highlights:

Quote
Could this be the final battle?

Are the homosexuals finally going to take control of our culture and push their depraved lifestyle on our children and families?

Passed last spring in the legislature, SB5688 would strip away the protections of traditional marriage that were ensured with the passage of DOMA (Defense of Marriage Act) just a few short years ago.

Do you realize what is going on here? Consider the following:

In 1970, (on the heels of a "free love" 60's radical culture) sodomy laws were repealed in Washington State, with government turning a blind eye to a behavior commonly considered perversion - and still the case with a majority of Americans.

Organizations, such as NAMBLA, (North American Man Boy Love Association) appeared on the horizon seeking to repeal "age of consent" laws (NAMBLA is still in business today).

After 27 years of relentless pursuit, homosexuals finally received protected class status from the Washington State Legislature in 2006, making it illegal for you to refuse to rent them a house, or hire them on account of their homosexuality.

Yikes.

The Washington GOP is disgusting.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 21, 2009, 06:53:39 PM
SUSA, Seattle mayor (link (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9fc4240c-0d90-4328-b028-8897253a5455)):

Mallahan 43%
McGinn 36%

Among those who have already voted or who are complete liars (19%), Mallahan leads 48-44.

Mallahan, oddly, leads among all groups except for the young, liberals, non-college graduates, the working-class and Asians.

I suspect the precinct map for this will look pretty similar to the bag tax map.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 21, 2009, 07:18:11 PM
Yeah, me too, although McGinn isn't going to get murdered in Southeast Seattle that way.

Moneys update:

Approve R-71
Raised: $1,822,785.68
Spent: $1,319,544.23
Percent remaining: 27.61%

Raised since last update: $559,273.04
Share of recent funds: 79.58%

Remaining: $503,241.45
Share of remaining funds: 83.42%

Reject R-71
Raised: $403,695.66
Spent: $303,655.13
Percent remaining: 24.78%

Raised since last update: $143,540.20
Share of recent funds: 20.42%

Remaining: $100,040.53
Share of remaining funds: 16.58%

***

Yes on I-1033
Raised: $670,171.15
Spent: $634,783.20
Percent remaining: 5.28%

Remaining: $35,387.95
Share of remaining funds: 1.76%

No on I-1033
Raised: $3,384,494.87
Spent: $1,407,053.24
Percent remaining: 58.43%

Remaining: $1,977,441.63
Share of remaining funds: 98.24%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on October 21, 2009, 07:20:17 PM
Ladies and gentlemen, Sen. Val Stevens' latest email (http://protectmarriagewa.com/index.php/component/content/article/2-press-releases/195-important-message-from-sen-val-stevens-on-r-71) to Reject 71 supporters.  Highlights:

Quote
Could this be the final battle?

Are the homosexuals finally going to take control of our culture and push their depraved lifestyle on our children and families?

Passed last spring in the legislature, SB5688 would strip away the protections of traditional marriage that were ensured with the passage of DOMA (Defense of Marriage Act) just a few short years ago.

Do you realize what is going on here? Consider the following:

In 1970, (on the heels of a "free love" 60's radical culture) sodomy laws were repealed in Washington State, with government turning a blind eye to a behavior commonly considered perversion - and still the case with a majority of Americans.

Organizations, such as NAMBLA, (North American Man Boy Love Association) appeared on the horizon seeking to repeal "age of consent" laws (NAMBLA is still in business today).

After 27 years of relentless pursuit, homosexuals finally received protected class status from the Washington State Legislature in 2006, making it illegal for you to refuse to rent them a house, or hire them on account of their homosexuality.


Based on Jim West and Richard Curtis, I thought closeted gay politicians who crusade against gay rights while secretly engaging in unethical behavior had already used the WA GOP as a means to "take control" and "push their depraved lifestyle." 

Val Stevens is a classic example of the far-right extremism and (hypocritical) fear-mongering of the Republican Party in this state.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 21, 2009, 07:40:08 PM
Yea, Val Stevens is a nutcase.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 23, 2009, 02:50:51 AM
Reject team wants to keep small donors a secret and lift the $5,000k lid.  It's basically a tacit admission that they kind of botched fundraising, as far as I can tell.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2010119481_webref71suit22m.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 26, 2009, 03:30:16 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hos_uIKwC-c&feature=player_embedded

epic


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 26, 2009, 10:15:40 PM
Semi-useless internal polling:

Constantine's camp says he's up 47-40 (http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2009/10/26/constantine-pulling-ahead-of-hutchison).  Who knows if that's a lie.

Approve Referendum 71 camp says their lead is up to 53-36 Approve (http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2009/10/26/poll-support-grows-to-approve-r-71), and it's the same poll they use internally, so whatever.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on October 27, 2009, 01:21:37 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hos_uIKwC-c&feature=player_embedded

epic

I like how the simulated earthquake was only a bit worse than the 2001 Nisqually Earthquake in order to get that effect. The viaduct is a death trap.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 27, 2009, 01:43:18 PM
http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/2009/10/27/homophobes-probably-arent-in-the-colbert-reports-demographic/

I like how Joe Turner just out and out calls the Reject 71 folks homophobes. God I'm going to miss that man.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 27, 2009, 04:22:06 PM
The University of Washington's Washington Poll (http://www.washingtonpoll.org/results/OCT_27_09.pdf) is out.  The full sample is 724 RVs, but I'm doing LVs instead.

Referendum 71
Approve 57%
Reject 38%

Initiative 1033
Yes 40%
No 49%

And the crappy King County and City of Seattle oversample results:

Mayor of Seattle
Mallahan 44%
McGinn 36%

King County Executive
Constantine 47%
Hutchison 34%

And some Approve-Disapprove numbers (whether oversample or not):

Nickels: 40-50
Obama: 52-40
Gregoire: 48-43
State legislature: 48-42 (?!)
Congress: 47-44 (?!?!?!)

Great news for liberals all around, but any poll that shows Congress with net approval should probably be ignored.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 27, 2009, 06:01:36 PM
Turnout is lagging slightly behind 2007, significantly behind 2005, 2003 and 2001 FYI


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 27, 2009, 06:47:49 PM
New SUSA polls:

R-71
Approve: 50%
Reject: 43%

I-1033
Yes: 38%
No: 50%

Clearly the No on I-1033 folks have been doing something right...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Nhoj on October 27, 2009, 07:39:27 PM
New SUSA polls:

R-71
Approve: 50%
Reject: 43%

I-1033
Yes: 38%
No: 50%

Clearly the No on I-1033 folks have been doing something right...
any cross tabs from SUSA?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 27, 2009, 07:41:12 PM
New SUSA polls:

R-71
Approve: 50%
Reject: 43%

I-1033
Yes: 38%
No: 50%

Clearly the No on I-1033 folks have been doing something right...
any cross tabs from SUSA?

They'll be released later tonight.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 28, 2009, 09:34:52 AM
Crosstabs up: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=fa112324-530e-497f-9871-069fbd6261b8

SUSA did kind of an interesting thing with I-1033. They read half of the respondents a reasonable summary of what the initiative did and then read half of the respondents the actual ballot language. They then averaged them out for the final poll result. The numbers don't differ radically between the summary and the actual language though.

Amongst the already voted I-1033 is failing 42-53 and R-71 is passing 53-42.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on October 28, 2009, 10:11:36 AM
If R-71 is approved, the same-sex marriage bill has to be passed either next year or in 2012. If it comes up for a vote in an off-off year, then I don't know if it would be able to win at the ballot box considering R-71 is closer than it should be, for Washington.

[And if it abolishes the Domestic Partnership registry like DC's bill, I'd be angry... and it's stupid how it's only for gay and senior couples. Why not open it to all couples who just don't wanna get married but want the legal benefits? Anyway...]


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on October 28, 2009, 10:47:33 PM
Hmm... Is Washington really 32% conservative, 43% moderate and 20% liberal?

I feel like that is way off.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 28, 2009, 10:49:55 PM
We have one mainstream poll with weird probably-overconservative crosstabs, we have another university poll with just-plain-weird crosstabs, and an unpublished internal with God knows what.

This race could feasibly be anywhere between a toss-up and a 20-point landslide.

Edit: and, wow, turnout sucks.  Pierce County called this one (about 45%)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 29, 2009, 02:53:46 AM
Edit: and, wow, turnout sucks.  Pierce County called this one (about 45%)

You have any theories as to why this might be happening? It seems very counterintuitive - we've got a high-profile, hot-button statewide referenda, competitive races in most of the major geographic areas (King County, Seattle, Tacoma, vast majority of the medium-sized municipalities, etc.)... it seems logical that turnout should be up this year.

The only thing I've got is this: The influx of new registrants from 2008 is deflating the turnout percentage. The same people who've always been voting in municipal elections are still voting (and perhaps even a few more due to the reasons mentioned above), but the massive amount of "one-hit-wonder" voters is off setting the percentage and making it appear as if turnout is down.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 29, 2009, 12:53:41 PM
That's the only theory I could come up with.  But even in raw ballot returns, we're barely edging 2007 and getting killed compared to 2005.  It doesn't make any sense to me at all.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: The Mikado on October 29, 2009, 02:57:18 PM
So, could someone make up for my criminal lack of knowledge about a state I have significant personal ties to and explain this R-71 business to me?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 29, 2009, 03:05:09 PM
So, could someone make up for my criminal lack of knowledge about a state I have significant personal ties to and explain this R-71 business to me?

Washington started with a weak, legislatively-passed "domestic partnership" law, which is more accurately a civil union law, since it involves the government.

Then, it was expanded.

This year, it was expanded again, to match all the rights of marriage without having the name -- except the federal ones, of course.

A somewhat weaksauce coalition of Christian right folks petitioned the Senate Bill onto the ballot as Referendum 71.  They got enough signatures only by the skin of their teeth.

Now, we are voting to either Approve or Reject that expanded domestic partnership law, as Referendum 71.  And by "we," I mean Meeker, me, and the seven other people who are going to vote this year.

An "Approve" vote keeps the "Everything but Marriage" bill.  A "Reject" vote rolls it back to the medium-strength version.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 29, 2009, 03:07:58 PM
So, could someone make up for my criminal lack of knowledge about a state I have significant personal ties to and explain this R-71 business to me?

In 2005 the State Legislature, after 25 years of trying, passed a landmark gay rights bill which added sexual orientation to the state anti-discrimination statue (making it on par with things such as race, gender and religious creed). Buoyed by this success and increased Democratic majorities from the 2006 elections, in 2007 the first domestic partnership law was passed. This law granted same-sex couples and heterosexual couples with one partner over the age of 65 many of the rights granted to married couples but not all of them. This spring the legislature continued with this work and passed a bill making the domestic partnerships equal in all aspects to a marriage - essentially creating gay marriage in everything but name.

Radical conservatives (many from out of state) didn't like this cause it's a sign the gays are taking over and stuff. So they succeeded in gathering enough signatures (barely) to refer the law to the people for a vote, asking the people if they want to "Approve" the law as passed by the legislature (thus keeping the everything-but-marriage domestic partnerships) or "Reject" the law as passed by the legislature (which I suppose would revert everything back to the 2007 domestic partnership law).

Alcon and probably Holmes could provide more details as to the actual campaign as they seem to be better versed on it than I.

ETA: K, I had this all written so I'm gonna go ahead and post it and Alcon can suck it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 29, 2009, 05:58:40 PM
And by "we," I mean Meeker, me, and the seven other people who are going to vote this year.

My girlfriend and I have already voted Accept, though not my dad, who, for the lamest of reasons, voted Reject...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 29, 2009, 06:25:25 PM
I just checked what was on the ballot in 2005 to see if it would help explain the difference in turnout. We dealt with the I-330/I-336 nonsense and the attempted repeal of the fuel tax, but I don't think either drove up turnout that much... especially since the fuel tax ended up failing.

Sometimes things happen in election statistics that are simply unexplainable. Maybe this is one of them.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 29, 2009, 06:38:12 PM
Completely unrelated to anything: A member of the Eatonville Town Council has had his registration challenged as it's become apparent he now lives in Vancouver. lol


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 29, 2009, 08:17:45 PM
Completely unrelated to anything: A member of the Eatonville Town Council has had his registration challenged as it's become apparent he now lives in Vancouver. lol

haha, wow.  I Googled him out of curiosity (since you rarely see any challenges, let alone two on one person) but I didn't realize he was the incumbent.  That's pretty funny.

ah eatonville, always justifying my constant inability to distinguish you from enumclaw.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 30, 2009, 03:15:10 PM
Breaking allegations of sexual misconduct by Constantine with a former county employee. Sound Politics broke it and the Seattle Times is digging around pretty heavily.

Fuck.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on October 30, 2009, 04:43:15 PM
Breaking allegations of sexual misconduct by Constantine with a former county employee. Sound Politics broke it and the Seattle Times is digging around pretty heavily.

Fuck.

What a horrible candidate.

Couldn't King County come up with someone better?
Hopefully there are enough early votes to not let Hutchinson in, but really I am not sure if Constantine deserves it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 30, 2009, 04:44:24 PM
Breaking allegations of sexual misconduct by Constantine with a former county employee. Sound Politics broke it and the Seattle Times is digging around pretty heavily.

Fuck.

What a horrible candidate.

Couldn't King County come up with someone better?
Hopefully there are enough early votes to not let Hutchinson in, but really I am not sure if Constantine deserves it.

If the General is anything like the primary, late voters are where Constantine needed to have done well.  We'll see how it plays on the news tonight.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on October 30, 2009, 09:39:09 PM
Breaking allegations of sexual misconduct by Constantine with a former county employee. Sound Politics broke it and the Seattle Times is digging around pretty heavily.

Fuck.

The timing of this strikes me as awfully convenient, given polls have recently shown Dow surging ahead and there are only days left to vote.  And it goes without saying that anything on Sound Politics should be taken with huge grain of salt. I am going to need harder evidence than conveniently-timed rumor-mongering by the (un) Sound Politics crowd about an anonymous "Jane Doe" who did not file a formal complaint against Constantine.  It smells like desperation from Hutchison's backers.

Call me optimistic but unless there are further revelations, I think the public will see this ploy for what it is.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 30, 2009, 10:40:43 PM
For reference, Pierce County turnout multipliers (that is, total mail ballots returned over return rate of the day equivalent to today) were:

2001: 2.34
2003: 2.23
2005: 2.29
2007: 2.88

As you can see, remarkably steady, except for an obnoxious 2007 outlier.  In any case, if this election tracks like 2001-2005, we can assume a final turnout of 37%-39% for Pierce.  If our multiplier is more like 2007, we're more on target for the county's estimates -- somewhere between in the neighborhood of 45%, maybe more.

King County is trailing even worse.  I don't have historical multipliers for them, but it's going to be hard for them to hit 56%.  It would take a multiplier like Pierce saw in 2007.  Otherwise, they may not even hit 50%.

I just checked a handful of rural counties, and everywhere else is around 25%, some nudging 30%, almost twice Pierce's current return rate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on October 31, 2009, 09:16:21 AM
Why does King county just not care?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 31, 2009, 12:51:54 PM
I've received word that the Pierce County post offices are just holding on to ballots with insufficient postage (you need 61 cents this year) and then plan on charging the county for the difference come election day. I don't know how many ballots that'll affect, but if it's a significant number it could help explain the turnout lag.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 31, 2009, 07:56:37 PM
The results from the all-important Student Mock Election have been posted by the Secretary of State. I-1033 failed 44-56 and R-71 was approved 59-41.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 01, 2009, 03:49:46 PM
http://www.thestranger.com/seattle/2009-election-nightmare/Content?oid=2594606

I love The Stranger.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 01, 2009, 03:54:50 PM
Title change!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 02, 2009, 12:01:42 AM
The results from the all-important Student Mock Election have been posted by the Secretary of State. I-1033 failed 44-56 and R-71 was approved 59-41.

Tacoma with six times as many votes as Seattle?  Dayton (Columbia County seat, pop. 2,600) almost as many, and 72% Approve on R-71? best fake election ever!

This does show a weird overall pattern though, where I-1033 is sucking in Eastern Washington except for the Tri-Cities.  It seems feasible that might actually happen, will be interesting.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 02, 2009, 05:41:57 PM
SurveyUSA poll now has Constantine leading by 10, 53-43.

While it may not be the greatest night for Democrats nationally, it looks like things are going to go pretty well here at least.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 02, 2009, 08:23:01 PM
Final SUSA Seattle mayor poll:

Mallahan 45% (+2)
McGinn 43% (+7)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 02, 2009, 08:59:30 PM
Fact: I have called Pierce County Elections so many times in the past week that I've had to start using accents to hide that it's me.

Edit: Apparently, if what I hear is right, Pierce County turnout is up to 23.23%, which is a pretty good boost.   More significantly, this follows 2007's pattern more than 2001's, 2003's and 2005's.  My turnout estimator is now showing a low-end estimate of 41.6% and a high-end estimate of 49.2%.  The midrange estimator is 44% (go PierceCo if so), and the overall line track is actually toward the higher-end now.

I heard from folks again today that the post office is sitting on a crapload of ballots. They used the word "thousands" but I think they may be exaggerating.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 02, 2009, 09:11:49 PM
Fact: I have called Pierce County Elections so many times in the past week that I've had to start using accents to hide that it's me.

Edit: Apparently, if what I hear is right, Pierce County turnout is up to 23.23%, which is a pretty good boost.   More significantly, this follows 2007's pattern more than 2001's, 2003's and 2005's.  My turnout estimator is now showing a low-end estimate of 41.6% and a high-end estimate of 49.2%.  The midrange estimator is 44% (go PierceCo if so), and the overall line track is actually toward the higher-end now.

I heard from folks again today that the post office is sitting on a crapload of ballots. They used the word "thousands" but I think they may be exaggerating.

I'm not sure thousands is a huge exaggeration.  If it weren't for being so engaged in this campaign (and being a poll voter), I could definitely see myself having not understood the stamp instruction.  If turnout really is up to 23.23%, that's about 70,000 ballots...I could see it being thousands.

If it is, then it's hard to not see us beating 44%, and 50%+ is a very distinct possibility.  If only we had a bunch of secret hidden King County ballots, too.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on November 02, 2009, 09:13:44 PM
For my inaugural post, Dow Constantine regains a 10 point lead in the SurveyUSA final poll.

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/archives/183910.asp


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 02, 2009, 09:14:11 PM
For my inaugural post, Dow Constantine regains a 10 point lead in the SurveyUSA final poll.

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/archives/183910.asp

Hey, welcome to the Atlas.  Are you a Washingtonian? :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on November 02, 2009, 09:18:34 PM
Yes sir, I have been following this board for a year now...just waiting on the perfect time to dive in!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 02, 2009, 09:21:48 PM
Welcome.  I won't ask more about where you're from to avoid being an Internet creeper, but it's always nice to have another contributor to our ridiculously OCD local politics thread.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 02, 2009, 09:30:30 PM
Yay, more Washingtonians. Welcome!

Also, it's time for the Washington-centric prediction competition!

I-1033
R-71
King County Executive
Seattle Mayor

For the daring...
Tacoma Mayor
Pierce County Auditor and Charter Amendments

For Alcon and I...

All Tacoma, U.P. and Lakewood races. Or else >:(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 02, 2009, 10:01:12 PM
I-1033: I think this will fail pretty hard.  In fact, I'm looking for a result similar to Eyman's last effort.  No +13.

Ref-71: Ugh, I hate predicting things I have an emotional investment in.  I have information overload.  Meh...Approve +7.

King County Executive: SurveyUSA's likely voter screen kind of sucks until the last minute on Washington off-years.  Constantine +7.

Seattle Mayor: I don't understand how the polling is missing things on this.  A model that overestimates turnout (like SUSA did on the primary) should pick up the exact type of voter that leans McGinn.  But I can't shake the feeling that turnout structurally advantages Mallahan in picking up Nickels voters.  Mallahan +5.

Tacoma Mayor: In the end, I think this will come down to name recognition.  Strickland +8.

Pierce County Auditor: Will Baker will not win, or come even vaguely close to winning, no matter how much the TNT freaks.  More seriously, I just don't know.  I see first preferences looking something like Shabro 42%, Anderson 40%, Baker 18%, and then Baker's voters flow to...oh, screw this.  Anderson will do very well in Tacoma, but I have no idea what's going on elsewhere.

Pierce County Charter Amendments: Gahhh.  I have no idea how to predict this.  There's no demographic matches or anything.  I'm going to say all of them are exact ties.  To the vote.  Because I really have no idea.

Other races I know anything about...I think Woodards will win by about 12, Lonergan will win by about 8, Uskha-Hall will win by about 13, and Lakewood will continue being a terrible place although I hope it will be a terrible place that elects Sam Ross.  And that's all I know about Lakewood.

You know, on most of these races, I would have been a lot more confident in my predictions about a week ago.  I have little confidence all-around now.  But c'est la vie.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 02, 2009, 11:10:56 PM
Spokane ballot returns at 33.8% while King County is at... 24.01%. Oh dear :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on November 02, 2009, 11:28:15 PM
Spokane ballot returns at 33.8% while King County is at... 24.01%. Oh dear :(

Spokane isn't all that bad. And Eastern Wa may be Republican but it's not that conservative, just look at the results of the death with dignity referendum last year.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on November 02, 2009, 11:31:11 PM
I-1033: Fail 41-59

R71: Pass 54-46 (this is my hope, but I won't be surprised if it is a total flip thanks to turnout)

KingCo. Exec: Constantine 52-48 (this may be totally lopsided and there is a slight possibility for Hutchinson to win, but it is King County...)

Seattle Mayor: McGinn 51-49 (this is definitely just me being hopeful)

Has anyone noticed an unusual number of people unopposed or is this really typical?



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 03, 2009, 12:13:15 AM
Here are my probably terribly inaccurate prediction maps:

I-1033 loses 56-44, Ref 71 passes 53-47
()

Also, Constantine takes the King County Executive race 53-47, and I honestly know very little about the mayoral race.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 03, 2009, 12:35:26 AM
Definitely a few guesses that I could be completely wrong for on my county maps... The Portland media market in particular is always hard to peg.

Anyway, my I-1033 map. I say the vote goes 42.5-57.5
()

R-71... I say 54.5-45.5
()

SEATTLE MAYOR
54-46 Mallahan

KING COUNTY EXECUTIVE
54-46 Constantine


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 03, 2009, 01:07:50 AM
I-1033 (No +16, although this is probably not actually No +16 :P)
()

R-71 (Approve +6 -- intentionally preparing myself for disappointment)
()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 03, 2009, 01:39:20 AM
that's *really* not a no +15 and i forgot a few eastern washington counties i was going to turn green but whatever.  Sign-waving at 6 am.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 03, 2009, 02:28:04 AM
I-1033
Approve:  44%
Reject:  56%

R-71
Approve:  56%
Reject:  44%

King County Executive
Constantine:  55%
Hutchison:  44%

Seattle Mayor
Mallahan:  50%
McGinn:  48%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 03, 2009, 02:59:36 AM
Definitely a few guesses that I could be completely wrong for on my county maps... The Portland media market in particular is always hard to peg.

Anyway, my I-1033 map. I say the vote goes 42.5-57.5
()

R-71... I say 54.5-45.5
()

SEATTLE MAYOR
54-46 Mallahan

KING COUNTY EXECUTIVE
54-46 Constantine


This is basically exactly what I think will happen. Though a two exceptions: Mallahan only wins 53-47 and R-71 passes 58-42 (yes I think it will be a big gap, hopefully I am right).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 03, 2009, 03:24:06 AM
My R-71 map is probably a bit more than a 9 point margin, but I dunno... I just made up a number for it. loololol


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on November 03, 2009, 03:46:39 AM
My predictions:

R-71 Passes by 18%.  I think we will see strong performance from Eastern WA (Spokane, Whitman, Asotin and Okanagan) coupled with weak results in exurban/rural, working class counties in the West.  R-71 probably has a 50-50 chance of passing in Pierce Co and could come up short in Clark Co.   Having moved here from CT a year ago, my sense is that Eastern WA is quite libertarian leaning whereas the evangelical strength is strongest along the Columbia River from the Vancouver suburbs through Walla Walla.

King Co Executive: Dow Constantine by 15%.  Frankly, a Democrat winning fewer than 60% in King County is unacceptable. :p Flashback of the 2008 Gov race, when Gregoire-Rossi ran about even for two years before pulling ahead in the last days of the campaign.

Races also worth watching are on the Eastside.  Despite the massive inroads made by the Democrats on the federal and state level over the decade,  Bellevue (where I currently live) City Council is still dominated by permanent GOP "fixtures" backed by Kemper Freeman.  The Democrats have fielded a slate of candidates to run in all open positions.   The races to watch are Pos 2 - Vicki Orrico against Conrad Lee (the old crank who lost to Reichert in the primary) and Pos 7 - a 3-way open seat race between two GOP backed candidates and a Dem endorsed candidate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 03, 2009, 11:45:40 AM
My R-71 map is probably a bit more than a 9 point margin, but I dunno... I just made up a number for it. loololol

Same here....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 03, 2009, 11:45:50 AM
I-1033
Yes: 46%
No: 54%

R-71
Approve: 55%
Reject: 45%

King County Executive
Constantine: 56%
Hutcison: 44%

Seattle Mayor
Mallahan: 52%
McGinn: 48%

Local races no one but Alcon and I care about and even Alcon caring about them is a maybe
Pierce County Auditor: Anderson; Charter Amendments: All three fail; Tacoma Mayor: Strickland; Tacoma At-large: Rojecki; Tacoma #4: Campbell; Tacoma #5: Lonergan; U.P #1: Figueroa; U.P. #3: Choiniere; U.P. #4: Grassi; U.P. #5: Ehart; Lakewood #1: Moss; Lakewood #2: Brandstetter; Lakewood #3: Whalen

Seattle Mayor could go either way, as could a slew of these Pierce County ones. And I know I said R-71 would pass, but this still gives me nightmares about what may be lurking underneath:

I-677 (1997)
Shall discrimination based on sexual orientation be prohibited in employment, employment agency, and union membership practices, without requiring employee partner benefits or preferential treatment?

Yes: 40%
No: 60%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 03, 2009, 10:41:22 PM
polls close in 20 mins, right?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 03, 2009, 10:42:52 PM
18 minutes!! ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 03, 2009, 10:43:50 PM
Results around :20-:30


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 03, 2009, 11:01:02 PM
They are closed. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 03, 2009, 11:06:43 PM
First numbers in from Franklin!!

I-1033: 56-44 (in other words, dead statewide)

R-71: 30-70 (in other words, R-71 will probably be approved)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 03, 2009, 11:08:29 PM
Island is 53-47 approve for R-71.

And the elections website is...down? ugh!



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 03, 2009, 11:09:50 PM
Wow, R-71 is 40-60 in Spokane!!

ouch. Maybe I spoke too soon.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 03, 2009, 11:11:03 PM
No no no no no R-71!!!!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 03, 2009, 11:11:32 PM
Spokane is 58% no for 1033 and 60% reject for 71.

This isn't looking good for R-71...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 03, 2009, 11:12:53 PM
Grant is getting 42% in Franklin... Not too bad...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 03, 2009, 11:14:12 PM
CONSTANTINE WINS 57-43!!!!!!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 03, 2009, 11:14:41 PM
YES!

King is also 65 No for 1033 and 66 approve for R71.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 03, 2009, 11:14:53 PM
And we aren't going to know Seattle Mayor for about two weeks.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 03, 2009, 11:16:23 PM
Fascist Tom Carr is getting his ass handed to him. Yes yes yes!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 03, 2009, 11:21:15 PM
WTF is going on with R-71. This doesn't make any sense.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 03, 2009, 11:21:31 PM
Seattle Mayor is 50-49 McGinn...

John Curley is currently winning in Sammamish (:'()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 03, 2009, 11:23:04 PM
R-71 AHEAD!!!!!! :D :D :D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Devilman88 on November 03, 2009, 11:23:37 PM
What is R-71?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 03, 2009, 11:24:38 PM
Ouch, and Laura Grant is gone.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 03, 2009, 11:29:47 PM
With the exception of Pacific, this map is the same as 2008 Governor so far.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 03, 2009, 11:31:12 PM
Pierce County decides that tonight would be a GREAT night to do website maintenance


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 03, 2009, 11:34:00 PM
Can someone explain to me what happened in Spokane?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Devilman88 on November 03, 2009, 11:35:58 PM


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on November 03, 2009, 11:37:00 PM

http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Washington_Referendum_71_%282009%29


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 03, 2009, 11:37:00 PM

A referendum on domestic partnerships.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 03, 2009, 11:38:36 PM
Can someone explain to me what happened in Spokane?

Pfft, you tell us! :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 03, 2009, 11:40:36 PM
Can someone explain to me what happened in Spokane?

Pfft, you tell us! :P


Hey just because I live here 9 months a year doesn't mean I understand them. Or at least that is what I am getting out of the results coming out of here, I thought R-71 would run about even in Spokane county...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 04, 2009, 12:10:40 AM
All counties are now in. R-71 is being approved 51-49.

Pierce County is lame and voted 52% reject and even voted yes on I-1033!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 04, 2009, 12:14:06 AM
Preliminary maps:

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 04, 2009, 12:21:16 AM
My locals were acceptable. Yay.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on November 04, 2009, 12:21:33 AM
What about the Instant Runoff voting repeal in Pierce County?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 04, 2009, 12:27:27 AM
What about the Instant Runoff voting repeal in Pierce County?

72% in favor. The experiment is over. :(

No more numbers coming out tonight besides a small trickling of poll results in Pierce.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 04, 2009, 12:28:51 AM
wow... Pierce county = fail. I was expecting more out of them.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 04, 2009, 01:03:53 AM
County maps scores. One point for correct winner, one point for correct shade.

59.0% - Bgwah
57.1% - Alcon
53.2% - RealisticIdealist


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 04, 2009, 01:14:45 AM
Uh...Pierce County Charter Amendment #1 is down 67-33 and #2 is down only 52-48?

Wtf wtf wtf.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 04, 2009, 01:17:10 AM
Uh...Pierce County Charter Amendment #1 is down 67-33 and #2 is down only 52-48?

Wtf wtf wtf.

That's what you choose to comment on after not being online all night?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on November 04, 2009, 01:53:22 AM
     I find it troubling that such a basic step forward for the gay rights movement passed so narrowly. Imagine if you guys had actually voted on gay marriage tonight.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on November 04, 2009, 03:02:31 AM
     I find it troubling that such a basic step forward for the gay rights movement passed so narrowly. Imagine if you guys had actually voted on gay marriage tonight.

First of all, let me say that this is my first ever post on election atlas.  I've been following this forum for about a year now but finally registered recently.

Yes, for anyone who is interested - I am a Washington resident who voted approve on Ref 71.

Now, to the comment:

What we need to consider is how many votes are still to be counted in King County, which is currently approving by about 65%-35%.  The secretary of state's website reports that so far 254,261 ballots have been counted.  King county elections says that the approx. number received is 374,801.  If that is the case there are about 120,000 ballots from King County not yet counted.

This also presents a problem because you were allowed to mail in your ballot as late as today.   I expect king county to be receiving a good amount of additional ballots until Wednesday.   


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 04, 2009, 02:24:38 PM
Oh olympia... why did I leave?

Spokane is the reason this state can't have nice things. Oh and by the way the northern suburbs of Spokane are mostly lower-middle class blue collar workers. I feel like they exemplify the type of voter who would vote democratic but against such measures as these. Thankfully the Gonzaga precinct voted in favor, though I don't know what the numbers are.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 04, 2009, 03:11:34 PM
Oh olympia... why did I leave?

Spokane is the reason this state can't have nice things. Oh and by the way the northern suburbs of Spokane are mostly lower-middle class blue collar workers. I feel like they exemplify the type of voter who would vote democratic but against such measures as these. Thankfully the Gonzaga precinct voted in favor, though I don't know what the numbers are.

Spokane 3142
Approve 121 (56.3%)
Reject 94 (43.7%)

The Gonzaga precinct contains a substantial residential area, too.  It's everything southwest of Division & Mission to the riverfront.

Today's 5 AM Pierce County update was not good for R-71 at all. (Edit: Neither was tonight's Lincoln update...ack.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 04, 2009, 03:42:58 PM
Spokane is a pretty sad place...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 04, 2009, 07:37:02 PM
Bunch more King County votes counted...

Constantine now leading 58-42.

McGinn's lead in Seattle shrinks... This is going to be a long election!
49.77% McGinn
49.33% Mallahan

In King County, I-1033 and R-71 are 33-67 and 67-33 respectively.

This leaves the statewide numbers at 44-56 for I-1033 and 52-48 for R-71.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ebowed on November 04, 2009, 08:06:13 PM
This leaves the statewide numbers at 44-56 for I-1033 and 52-48 for R-71.

:)

Washington > Maine


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Sbane on November 04, 2009, 08:21:08 PM
This leaves the statewide numbers at 44-56 for I-1033 and 52-48 for R-71.

:)

Washington > Maine

If this was straight up gay marriage instead of a civil union, this would have failed as well.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 04, 2009, 08:24:56 PM
San Juan is now 71% approve. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on November 04, 2009, 08:29:40 PM
This leaves the statewide numbers at 44-56 for I-1033 and 52-48 for R-71.

:)

Washington > Maine

If this was straight up gay marriage instead of a civil union, this would have failed as well.

Maybe. But I feel like this off-year election really messed up the results since young voters didn't really care and the older voters actually voted. I wonder what the demographics of the Maine vote were because it seems like Washington would possibly approve gay marriage.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 04, 2009, 08:39:04 PM
I think we would've approved it in 2008.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on November 04, 2009, 09:00:37 PM
Looks like R-71 will probably win by 2%. SUSA had it up by 7%, so I'll just say that Washington's gay Bradley Effect is 5%. At least on off-off year elections.

Maine's is about 4%. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 04, 2009, 11:09:05 PM
Woodards vs. Rojecki is the first time a black Democrat has beaten a white Democrat in Tacoma, as far as I can tell (which may not be very well).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on November 05, 2009, 12:27:17 AM
Some Random Thoughts on R-71 results:

The King Co returns are stellar and I gave too much credit for Washington's libertarian streak, especially in Eastern WA.  Not surprised that it is faring poorly in the SW part of the state.

Could someone please enlighten me what's the deal with Pierce Co!?!?  This county sticks out like a sore thumb in each election.  I have a hard time believing R-71 is doing better in Skagit (Glenn Beck Co) and Clallam while it's trailing by 6% or more in Pierce Co.  Is Pierce Co the place all the disaffected blue collar, evangelical, pissed-off Palin fanbase hang out?  (The 7/161 corridor in Pierce Co sure feel a like an eerie mix of Tennessee and West Virgina).

The King Co Executive race is running pretty close to my prediction of a 15% margin.  In Bellevue, the progressive slate running for City Council are all trailing by significant margins.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on November 05, 2009, 12:30:36 AM
MAPS OR IT DIDNT HAPPEN.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 05, 2009, 01:25:07 AM

Don just created a new forum meme.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 05, 2009, 01:29:39 AM
Also there's a preliminary Pierce abstract up.

AlconAlconAlconAlconAlconAlconAlcon!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 05, 2009, 01:31:13 AM
Could someone please enlighten me what's the deal with Pierce Co!?!?  This county sticks out like a sore thumb in each election.  I have a hard time believing R-71 is doing better in Skagit (Glenn Beck Co) and Clallam while it's trailing by 6% or more in Pierce Co.  Is Pierce Co the place all the disaffected blue collar, evangelical, pissed-off Palin fanbase hang out?  (The 7/161 corridor in Pierce Co sure feel a like an eerie mix of Tennessee and West Virgina).

The Skagit performance is impressive.  The measure didn't do that amazingly in "Glenn Beck Country" (Mount Vernon) but it outperformed Obama in both the Anacortes and La Conner areas.  Also, rural turnout seems to have been kind of low.  Any way you cut it, it was impressive (as was Clallam, where R-71 killed Obama in a good few rural precincts.)

Pierce County has a lot of socially status quo exurbanites.  Once you get outside of Tacoma proper, the county's residential areas are essentially a lower middle class sprawly morass.  University Place/Fircrest are more traditional suburbs,

Even within Tacoma, there's a definite cultural split.  You get south of about South 12th Street, and you get an increasing number of blue-collar union types who are Democratic but queasy about homosexuality.  Pierce County is also short on wealthy, educated, urbanized residential areas -- North Tacoma is pretty much it.

edit: holy crap holy crap preliminary pierce abstract


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 05, 2009, 01:50:07 AM
Hey Meeker: University Place sucks.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 05, 2009, 01:52:28 AM
Hey Meeker: University Place sucks.

:(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 05, 2009, 02:02:29 AM
Bonney Lake: 42%
Buckley: 42%
Carbonado: 32%
DuPont: 47%
Edgewood: 47%
Fife: 46%
Fircrest: 54%
Gig Harbor: 51%
Lakewood: 46%
Milton: 45%
Orting: 39%
Puyallup: 45%
Roy: 33%
Ruston: 52%
South Prairie: 47%
Steilacoom: 49%
Sumner: 50%
Tacoma: 56%
University Place: 49%
Wilkeson: 58%
Unincorporated: 42%

So, everyone got their asses kicked by Wilkeson, which was a Kerry/McCain town.

There are some nasty rural rejections (several >70).  Even some >60 Rejects in Tacoma.  On the other hand, R-71 is currently outpolling Obama in North Tacoma and breaking 80% in one precinct.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 05, 2009, 02:04:39 AM
The whole things weird all around the state. We shouldn't draw too many conclusions based on partial results though.

Also, if you get a chance, I'd be curious to see if there's any pattern to the RCV reject. I don't recall if we've ever mapped the 2006 or 2007 votes on that either.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Sbane on November 05, 2009, 02:06:49 AM

http://vote.wa.gov/Elections/WEI/ResultsByCounty.aspx?ElectionID=32&RaceID=102369&CountyCode=%20&JurisdictionTypeID=-2&RaceTypeCode=M&ViewMode=Results


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 05, 2009, 02:10:05 AM
51% seems like a rather underwhelming result from one of the most socially liberal states for something that isn't even gay marriage. Of course allmost all of the people who claim that they don't hate gays, and just oppose gay marriage voted against this too.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 05, 2009, 02:12:26 AM
To our credit, a lot of our socially liberal voters don't turn out on off-year elections. Same thing could be said of Maine, of course. We also aren't done counting so the margin could tick up.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on November 05, 2009, 04:53:54 AM
Quote

Pierce County has a lot of socially status quo exurbanites.  Once you get outside of Tacoma proper, the county's residential areas are essentially a lower middle class sprawly morass.  University Place/Fircrest are more traditional suburbs,

Even within Tacoma, there's a definite cultural split.  You get south of about South 12th Street, and you get an increasing number of blue-collar union types who are Democratic but queasy about homosexuality.  Pierce County is also short on wealthy, educated, urbanized residential areas -- North Tacoma is pretty much it.

edit: holy crap holy crap preliminary pierce abstract

Thanks alcon for your insights - it really adds some context to the results.  I was in the North Tacoma area around N 18 St and Puget Sound Ave recently and that area has a certain New England old-money feel to me.  It was also where I saw the first approve R-71 lawn signs.

Pretty surprised that R-71 is running about even in Sumner though.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 05, 2009, 02:12:59 PM
Undervote on I-1033 in King County: 9.8%

Average undervote on I-1033 in the other 38 counties: 2.8%

If this had been closer the shitty ballot design would've made the thing pass.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 05, 2009, 07:26:16 PM
King County abstract!! http://your.kingcounty.gov/elections/200911/GeneralElection-ENF.pdf


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 05, 2009, 08:01:18 PM
From the Red County blog:

Councilman Dow Constantine smashed blue dog, moderate Democrat Susan Hutchinson in that election contest.

lololol

If you wanna kill a few brain cells, go here: http://www.redcounty.com/county/eastwashington


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 05, 2009, 08:17:37 PM
Current R-71 numbers by KingCo LD with final Obama in brackets (wish I could find prelim :():

1st: 59-41 (63-36)
5th: 56-44 (57-41)
11th: 57-43 (71-27)
30th: 51-49 (59-39)
31st: 44-56 (51-47)
32nd: 65-35 (71-28)
33rd: 54-46 (64-35)
34th: 73-27 (78-21)
36th: 83-17 (84-15)
37th: 76-24 (86-13)
39th: 49-51 (62-33)
41st: 61-39 (64-35)
43rd: 90-10 (89-10)
45th: 59-41 (61-38)
46th: 79-21 (83-16)
47th: 49-51 (56-43)
48th: 63-37 (64-35)

R-71 is actually set to narrowly outpace Obama in the 43rd LD.  Elsewhere, some reasonably substantial losses.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 05, 2009, 10:05:31 PM
The Associated Press has called R-71 for Approve.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on November 05, 2009, 10:53:09 PM
I'm glad. :) The margin was really close though... maybe it has to do with all the attention being in Maine that all the resources went there instead. Plus all the Reject supporters thinking this has to do with marriage. And it was an off-off year election.

Well Washingtonians, get ready to be invaded by Schubert-Flint and NOM in the next few years. ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 06, 2009, 02:07:31 AM
As of now, R-71 is passing 52%-48% with about 69% of the vote counted.  The later returns are increasing the margin of victory.  We'll see how it looks once 100% is counted.

And despite the closeness, make no mistake -- this was a major victory.  I believe it was the first time gay/lesbian unions were placed on a statewide ballot and won.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 06, 2009, 02:15:30 AM
As of now, R-71 is passing 52%-48% with about 69% of the vote counted.  The later returns are increasing the margin of victory.  We'll see how it looks once 100% is counted.

And despite the closeness, make no mistake -- this was a major victory.  I believe it was the first time gay/lesbian unions were placed on a statewide ballot and won.

Not that they have them, but Arizona refused to ban civil unions. Prop. 107 failed with 48%.in 2006. They then passed Prop. 102 in 2008 banning just gay marriage. It got 56%, not that much higher than California and Maine got. There were sure a lot fewer Obama/ anti-gay marriages voters in Arizona than California.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 06, 2009, 05:16:56 PM
SoundPolitics hasn't even mentioned Susan Hutchison since the election, lol.

And HorsesAss seems to think she's subtly suggesting a Senate run. But that would make running as an "independent" a lot harder... ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on November 06, 2009, 07:32:13 PM
After the latest update:

Seattle Mayor

Mike McGinn    75657    49.99%
Joe Mallahan    74448    49.19%
Write-in       1240    0.82%

McGinn extends his lead to just over 1200 votes.  The excitement is killing me. lol.

Look for the next update at 9:00 PM tonight!

I see little movement in much else.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 06, 2009, 07:40:11 PM
and the viaduct saga continues...

UGH! Thanks Seattle.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on November 07, 2009, 12:06:13 AM
King Co Mail Ballot Return Stats 11/6 Update @8:00pm

Total Issued - 1084591   
Received Today - 106962
Cumulative Received To Date - 565993   
% Received - 52.18

King Co Results Update #2 @ 8:00pm

Referendum Measure No. 71

APPROVED       323525    67.72%
REJECTED       154214    32.28%

County Executive short and full term

Susan Hutchison       193282    41.40%
Dow Constantine       272762    58.42%
Write-in                       867              0.19%

CITY OF SEATTLE

Mayor

Mike McGinn       85416    50.31%
Joe Mallahan       83032    48.91%
Write-in               1328    0.78%

Looking good King County!  The R-71 approval % are far outpacing Kerry's and only 2.25% below Obama's blowout.  Eastern WA must be pissed!

I think McGinn has this one in the bag.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 07, 2009, 12:21:48 AM
Yea, McGinn has clearly won this.

All this cycle I've really, really wanted to like McGinn, but I keep having nagging doubts about him. Hopefully he proves me wrong.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 07, 2009, 12:32:21 AM
Two humorous things to note from Pierce County results:

1) The News Tribune a few days before the election wrote a special editorial about how much they hated Puyallup City Council candidate John Alexander (they'd already endorsed his opponent earlier). Apparently people were listening in the final days, as Alexander's share has dropped from 48% on election night, to 45% a few days later, to around 42% today. Someone else can do the math as to how lopsided those later returns must have been. Alexander also received more than 50% of the vote in the primary, so this is rather pathetic.

2) Incumbent Steilacoom Town Councilmember Connie Aboubakr recieved less than 18% of the vote in her re-election bid. lol


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 07, 2009, 08:28:47 PM
As of tonight's Pierce County update, Tacoma mayoral candidate Jim Merritt goes from effectively screwed to numerically screwed.  Strickland wins.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 07, 2009, 08:31:44 PM
Yea, it's not even in recount territory anymore.

Later ballots have been unquestionably more liberal this cycle - something which stands in stark contrast to 2008 IIRC. Wonder why.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 07, 2009, 08:39:32 PM
^^^ I hadn't really noticed Pierce County's numbers on R-71; just based that off King County's numbers and the two mayoral contests. Interesting.

Something else Tacoma related to note: 5 of the 8 members on the City Council next year will be new - Woodards, Lonergan, Campbell, and whoever replaces Strickland and Anderson. Only veterans will be Fey, Walker and Manthou.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 07, 2009, 08:45:06 PM
My theory is that Merritt made some pretty incredible inroads with people who are connected to politics, and name recognition diluted that effect with second- and third- wave ballots, even if second-wavers were more conservative.  I think she killed with third-wave voters because they're younger, more liberal and more effected by name recognition.  Kind of the perfect storm.

As for King County, I think there the ballots just get younger as time goes on.

I don't really know why Pierce's second-wave ballots tend to be so much more conservative (over 60% Reject on R-71!).  I really wish someone would track demographic trends by ballot wave time to try to explain this and why it never happens in King.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on November 07, 2009, 10:06:43 PM
Pierce County zoomed in on Tacoma area (Election Night only, it's gotten a bit more Reject since)
()

See what I said about going past South 19th? :P

Agreed.  What are the white precincts?  Are those the privacy suppressed areas?  And is that purple precinct a tie?



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on November 07, 2009, 10:17:22 PM
Yea, McGinn has clearly won this.

All this cycle I've really, really wanted to like McGinn, but I keep having nagging doubts about him. Hopefully he proves me wrong.
McGinn seems to be a more genuine candidate but I shudder at the thought of having the Alaska Way and 520 issue reopened for another lost decade of wrangling.  And now that the entire Kemper Freeman endorsed slate has won in Bellevue watch for lawsuits and delays in keeping the East Link alignment out of downtown Bellevue.  This Seattle Process never fails to amaze me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 07, 2009, 11:10:48 PM
Random question for Stranger Than Fiction and any other new members: Where do you guys live?? It would be interesting to know if you could provide any fresh, local perspectives on certain areas... :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 08, 2009, 12:07:00 AM
I just realized Pierce flipped in supporting I-1033 (they did on election night, don't anymore). Was that just because of third-wave Alcon, or did the second-wave support it less than the first-wave as well?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 08, 2009, 12:55:06 AM
Baird voted against the health care bill. Any chance there could be a challenge against him that someone like me could work for?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on November 08, 2009, 12:59:26 AM
Random question for Stranger Than Fiction and any other new members: Where do you guys live?? It would be interesting to know if you could provide any fresh, local perspectives on certain areas... :)
Bellevue, WA currently.  Moved here from Fairfield County, CT a year ago.  Also lived in Upstate NY, WI and OH.  I'm still pretty up-to-date on Northeastern political developments.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on November 08, 2009, 02:14:11 AM
Um, can't really tell you too much interesting.  I've lived in Seattle my whole life.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 08, 2009, 02:15:55 AM
Welcome then...it's actually pretty interesting, because you're our first ever Seattle poster, as far as I know. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 08, 2009, 02:19:00 AM
Welcome then...it's actually pretty interesting, because you're our first ever Seattle poster, as far as I know. :)

lol, I'm pretty sure we had one in ~2004. ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 08, 2009, 02:38:35 AM
Wow.  Normally when I hear "people are holding on to their ballots more this year" I think it's BS, but look at this:

http://www.co.pierce.wa.us/xml/abtus/ourorg/aud/elections/archives/gen09/hist.pdf

Three days after election day, the number of ballots that come in:

2001: 1,583
2003: 1,499
2005: 1,208
2007: 363
2009: 21,741

Dayum, what happened?  We're now on track for OK turnout.

And King County's estimates appear completely on-target -- 52% turnout, 56% in Seattle.  Same thing happened there, too.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 08, 2009, 02:43:58 AM
Only logical explanation I can come up with is that those are all insufficient postage ballots that the post office was holding on to.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 08, 2009, 02:55:28 AM
Only logical explanation I can come up with is that those are all insufficient postage ballots that the post office was holding on to.

That must be it.  So, about 15% of voters didn't understand that extra postage was required.  I'm actually somewhat impressed.  If I were less engaged, I would probably have been one of those 15%.  Whoever designed Pierce County's ballot return envelope (and the ballot requiring the extra postage, for that matter) should be shot.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 08, 2009, 02:58:49 AM
Only logical explanation I can come up with is that those are all insufficient postage ballots that the post office was holding on to.

That must be it.  So, about 15% of voters didn't understand that extra postage was required.  I'm actually somewhat impressed.  If I were less engaged, I would probably have been one of those 15%.  Whoever designed Pierce County's ballot return envelope (and the ballot requiring the extra postage, for that matter) should be shot.

Considering that RCV was the cause of that, and that RCV has been shot (electorally), I think you got your wish.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 08, 2009, 03:03:57 AM
Also means the county had to pay roughly $3500 in postage. HOW CAN WE AFFORD THAT W/ TEH BUDGET CRISIS?!?!?11?! CURSE YOU JAN SHARBO!!!11!!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 09, 2009, 12:13:53 AM
Alcon, do you have initial precinct abstracts for the universities? UW, WSU, Western, Central, Eastern, Evergreen, UPS, Gonzaga, Seattle U, Lewis & Clark and Whitman would all be interesting (although Central particularly because a friend asked me which spurred me to ask this).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 09, 2009, 01:28:42 PM
I'm not even going to try to defend the Lewis & Clark thing. Wow.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 09, 2009, 03:09:29 PM
WSU will probably have laughably terrible turn-out.

But most colleges will, I suppose. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 09, 2009, 08:31:05 PM
Mallahan officially conceded tonight. Quite a fascinating election.

If Mike McGinn does well as mayor I think he'll definitely be going farther.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 09, 2009, 11:27:55 PM
Mallahan officially conceded tonight. Quite a fascinating election.

If Mike McGinn does well as mayor I think he'll definitely be going farther.

...Going farther? Maybe King County Executive... But I really don't see him ever getting elected to a statewide office, and Ed Murray is the next Representative from the 7th Congressional District. So I kind of wonder what you mean here.

Following King County's update, R-71 is up to 53-47 Approve statewide and 68-32 in the county. I-1033 is 58-42 no statewide and 69-31 in the county.

McGinn leading Mallahan 51-48, and Constantine now destroying Hutchison 59-41 (lolz).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 09, 2009, 11:42:28 PM
Hutchison polled about 5-7 behind what the polls said she would get in the primary... I could see her getting 40-42%.

Well at least I nailed one prediction, even if I wrecked it later. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 09, 2009, 11:54:10 PM
I can understand disliking Brad Owen, but I think shooting his son is a little extreme? ;D

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2010238814_webdoubleshoot09.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 10, 2009, 12:29:46 AM
I can understand disliking Brad Owen, but I think shooting his son is a little extreme? ;D

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2010238814_webdoubleshoot09.html

One of the comments on The News Tribune's website is rather hilarious considering the context:

Quote
Drug deal gone bad?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 10, 2009, 02:50:22 AM
Constantine now destroying Hutchison 59-41 (lolz).

I shouldn't brag, but this is what I posed back in June:

My prediction is that Hutchison will win the primary with flying colors and then she will lose badly in the general election.  Name recognition is a powerful advantage, particularly in a multi-candidate field.  Having multiple candidates in the race gives her more cover to duck specific questions about her record, which is what she has been doing.  She has only shown up to one or two candidate forums and appears to be running scared.

In the general election, there won't be anywhere to hide.

As an aside, the KC Executive race is illustrative of why I think the decision to make county races "nonpartisan" was a sham. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on November 10, 2009, 04:15:39 AM
I can understand disliking Brad Owen, but I think shooting his son is a little extreme? ;D

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2010238814_webdoubleshoot09.html
Pretty disturbing news.  As an aside, are Brad Owen and Brian Sonntag considered DINOs for Washington State?  I don't know much about Owens but I recall seeing Sonntag at a tea party and he's regarded as Tim Eyman's and Rob McKenna's favorite Democrat.  What is the likelihood for either of them to become Governor?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 10, 2009, 05:50:52 AM
Brad Owen strikes me as a moron more than a DINO. But yeah, he's fairly conservative, especially on marijuana-related issues.

I don't think Sonntag is a DINO, though he is fairly moderate. He seems to be the most popular Democrat in Washington. Meeker might know more about it, but it seems fairly likely that Sonntag will run for Governor someday, maybe in 2012... He is getting kind of old, though. I think he would have a good chance. A lot of his more recent actions seem more like positioning for a 2012 run than being a DINO. He consistently gets the highest % of the vote of any statewide official, so I suppose he may know what he's doing.

While Sonntag would have a very good chance of getting through a primary for Governor, I just don't see how Owen could. Republicans will support one of their own, and Democrats will unite around more liberal candidates. The most plausible way for a Governor Owen would be the Governor dying/resigning.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 10, 2009, 07:27:41 AM
Why has Brad Owen been the Lt. Governor for so long?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 10, 2009, 12:09:11 PM
Why has Brad Owen been the Lt. Governor for so long?

No Democrat is going to challenge him and the Republicans are incapable of nominating non-joke candidates for the office. And even if they did manage to get a respectable candidate it's very difficult to make the case for throwing out a Lt. Governor. There's nothing you can really attack them on because they don't really do anything.

Owen will be Lt. Governor for the rest of his life if he wants to, and I think that's exactly his plan.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 10, 2009, 12:20:06 PM
Also, re: Sonntag, I've met people who've said that he told them to their faces that he was going to run in 2012. I've heard similar whisperings from others. He also seemed to go a little overboard with the campaign in 2008 considering how horrible his opponent was. That could be a sign that he wants to up his name recognition even more, or it could just be a sign he has a big ego and likes to put up campaign material.

I honestly don't know much about his political positions (you don't really need to let them be known when you're State Auditor) and as such wouldn't quite know how he'd fit into a primary electorate. Although keep in mind we don't really have primary electorates anymore thanks to the top-two, so that'll make things even more complicated.

On the subject of 2012:

Basically for sure candidates
Attorney General Rob McKenna (R)
Congressman Jay Inslee (D)
State Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown (D)

Not really clear
State Auditor Brian Sonntag (D)
State House Speaker Frank Chopp (D)

I keep hearing the Chopp rumor as well but I don't really buy it. Regardless, even if it was just the three candidates I mentioned above as "for-sure"s, the primary would be very curious - especially because Brown would be the first strong candidate from the East (Spokane) in quite a while and she's a Democrat to boot. Throw in Sonntag or Chopp and things get even more complex.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 10, 2009, 01:21:34 PM
Do you really think McKenna and Sonntag would run against each other?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 10, 2009, 01:29:17 PM
Do you really think McKenna and Sonntag would run against each other?

Are they good friends? I'd never heard that before.

There's no way in hell Rob McKenna isn't running, so if you don't think they'll run against each other then the only logical thing is for Sonntag not to run.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 10, 2009, 01:32:44 PM
Well if McKenna does run, then I suppose Sonntag does seem like the best person to beat him...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 12, 2009, 02:08:27 PM
I'm not sure if anything else will find this interesting, but I did.  It's an op-ed by one of the state's activist evangelical pastors, who was a critic of the idea of getting R-71 on the ballot but was a strong supporter once it did.  I actually found it pretty sympathetic.

http://www.thenewstribune.com/471/story/949682.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 13, 2009, 02:30:40 AM
Nothing to do with politics, but here's the title of tomorrow's News Tribune editorial: "Nidal Hasan: More red flags than Beijing"

Win.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on November 13, 2009, 08:41:06 PM
Is anyone planning on posting either R-71 or I-1033 maps?

I'm super interested in King, Spokane, and Piece county maps.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 13, 2009, 10:06:27 PM
King hasn't released any precinct data yet and still won't for a while... Hopefully Alcon will once they do! ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 13, 2009, 10:21:41 PM
Is anyone planning on posting either R-71 or I-1033 maps?

I'm super interested in King, Spokane, and Piece county maps.

If I can get my crap machine to run my GIS program, yep.

There is a preliminary Pierce map (metro Tacoma only) earlier in this thread:

http://img132.imageshack.us/img132/3000/tacomar71prelim.png


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Sbane on November 13, 2009, 11:53:41 PM
Can someone explain why Jefferson county voted so overwhelmingly for ref 71?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 14, 2009, 12:11:48 AM
Can someone explain why Jefferson county voted so overwhelmingly for ref 71?

Port Townsend.  It's an old shipbuilding town full of Victorian houses that has become a crunchy leftist enclave with major tourism.  R-71 won it over four-to-one.  R-71 also held up well in the surrounding areas, and well-to-do retirement village Port Ludlow, where it beat Obama.  That was enough to make up for some lag in the south of the county, around Brinnon and Quilcene, working-class towns with a heritage in timber.

R-71 actually beat Obama pretty reliably in the middle-class parts of the Olympic Peninsula (Jefferson and Clallam).  I spend the summers in one of those precincts, and it surprises me.  The areas are OK-off but not rich, aren't unusually educated for their income levels, and are full of old white people.  I-1033 (Death With Dignity) did well there, Obama did well in the primary (these areas seem to have especially liberal primary voters), and it's hard to tell why.

The "older, white middle-classers doing better for R-71 than Obama" also seems to be holding up on Whidbey Island (Island County) and the San Juan Islands (San Juan County), in both cases where R-71 is beating Obama outright.  The electorates on South Whidbey and throughout the San Juans are similar demographically and in behavior, although both areas are much more liberal.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on November 14, 2009, 12:15:04 AM
Why has Brad Owen been the Lt. Governor for so long?

No Democrat is going to challenge him and the Republicans are incapable of nominating non-joke candidates for the office. And even if they did manage to get a respectable candidate it's very difficult to make the case for throwing out a Lt. Governor. There's nothing you can really attack them on because they don't really do anything.

Owen will be Lt. Governor for the rest of his life if he wants to, and I think that's exactly his plan.

Owen's the shortest serving Democratic Lieutenant Governor in state history. lol.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: MaxQue on November 14, 2009, 12:27:55 AM
Why has Brad Owen been the Lt. Governor for so long?

No Democrat is going to challenge him and the Republicans are incapable of nominating non-joke candidates for the office. And even if they did manage to get a respectable candidate it's very difficult to make the case for throwing out a Lt. Governor. There's nothing you can really attack them on because they don't really do anything.

Owen will be Lt. Governor for the rest of his life if he wants to, and I think that's exactly his plan.

Owen's the shortest serving Democratic Lieutenant Governor in state history. lol.

Yes, he served longer than any Republican Lieutenant Governor. That is especially funny because there was only 3 Democratic Lieutenant Governors, while there was 11 Republican Lieutenant Governors.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 14, 2009, 06:41:35 PM
Why has Brad Owen been the Lt. Governor for so long?

No Democrat is going to challenge him and the Republicans are incapable of nominating non-joke candidates for the office. And even if they did manage to get a respectable candidate it's very difficult to make the case for throwing out a Lt. Governor. There's nothing you can really attack them on because they don't really do anything.

Owen will be Lt. Governor for the rest of his life if he wants to, and I think that's exactly his plan.

Owen's the shortest serving Democratic Lieutenant Governor in state history. lol.

We've only had four state auditors since 1905. ;D

I didn't know anybody actually looked at the Washington pages I made on the Wiki, lolz. Unless you looked at the pages on the real Wikipedia which Q basically stole from mine here. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on November 14, 2009, 09:25:32 PM
So Washington has another waste of a Lt. Gov. office like Minnesota. There's a small movement in the Minn. legislature to abolish the Lt. Gov. option and let the Sec of State be next in succession but for some reason no one seems to want to get behind it. This is despite the current Lt. Gov. being basically the most unpopular political figure in state besides Michele Bachmann possibly (in a nutshell she was also Sec of Transportation due to Lt. Gov. being a nothing job, and became the scapegoat for the bridge collapse. The Senate thus refused to reapprove her as Sec of Transportation.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 14, 2009, 09:49:16 PM
So Washington has another waste of a Lt. Gov. office like Minnesota. There's a small movement in the Minn. legislature to abolish the Lt. Gov. option and let the Sec of State be next in succession but for some reason no one seems to want to get behind it. This is despite the current Lt. Gov. being basically the most unpopular political figure in state besides Michele Bachmann possibly (in a nutshell she was also Sec of Transportation due to Lt. Gov. being a nothing job, and became the scapegoat for the bridge collapse. The Senate thus refused to reapprove her as Sec of Transportation.)

A Libertarian ran for Lt. Governor in 2000 on the platform of abolishing the office. She got around 7% of the vote.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 14, 2009, 10:53:12 PM
So Washington has another waste of a Lt. Gov. office like Minnesota. There's a small movement in the Minn. legislature to abolish the Lt. Gov. option and let the Sec of State be next in succession but for some reason no one seems to want to get behind it. This is despite the current Lt. Gov. being basically the most unpopular political figure in state besides Michele Bachmann possibly (in a nutshell she was also Sec of Transportation due to Lt. Gov. being a nothing job, and became the scapegoat for the bridge collapse. The Senate thus refused to reapprove her as Sec of Transportation.)

A Libertarian ran for Lt. Governor in 2000 on the platform of abolishing the office. She got around 7% of the vote.

Don't forget "Absolutely Nobody" in 1992: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=53&year=1992&f=0&off=6 ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on November 15, 2009, 02:32:12 AM
Looking at past gubernatorial elections, it now looked pretty amazing and improbable that former Governor Gary Locke did so well in Eastern Washington in 1996 and 2000.  He won 57% of the vote in Spokane Co, 51% in Walla Walla Co and came within a point of winning the GOP bastions of Benton and Franklin Co in 2000.  And this was running against a candidate with a plan from God in 1996 and a talk-show host in 2000 - natural constituencies for conservative Eastern Washington.  On the other hand, he seemed to have slightly underperformed in King Co (66%) by today's standards.

My question is has the state become more polarized in the ensuing years?  Was Gary Locke still relatively popular when he left office and how do Washingtonians today view him in general?  Was he viewed as governor of one Washington or just another Subaru driving liberal from Seattle?   Thanks for any comments.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 15, 2009, 05:41:58 AM
Gary Locke was pretty moderate while Craswell and Carlson were very terrible candidates. I think that's an important thing to keep in mind.

It may not show up in the gubernatorial election, but 2000 seems to be the election where traditionally Democratic bastions in Eastern Washington (like Ferry, Pend Oreille, and Asotin counties) convert to the GOP for good. They loved them some George W. Bush. Still, the East-West polarization had already gotten pretty extreme by the time Gary Locke showed up.

The biggest change, in my opinion, is the GOP's more recent collapse in Metro Seattle, particularly suburban King County. John McCain didn't even break 40% in Sammamish, lolz.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 15, 2009, 08:56:01 AM
So Washington has another waste of a Lt. Gov. office like Minnesota. There's a small movement in the Minn. legislature to abolish the Lt. Gov. option and let the Sec of State be next in succession but for some reason no one seems to want to get behind it. This is despite the current Lt. Gov. being basically the most unpopular political figure in state besides Michele Bachmann possibly (in a nutshell she was also Sec of Transportation due to Lt. Gov. being a nothing job, and became the scapegoat for the bridge collapse. The Senate thus refused to reapprove her as Sec of Transportation.)

How many states have a Lt. Governor with any duties? The only ones I can think of are Alaska, Hawaii, and Utah, where the Lt. Governor basically does the job of the Secretary of State.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 15, 2009, 09:47:27 AM
So Washington has another waste of a Lt. Gov. office like Minnesota. There's a small movement in the Minn. legislature to abolish the Lt. Gov. option and let the Sec of State be next in succession but for some reason no one seems to want to get behind it. This is despite the current Lt. Gov. being basically the most unpopular political figure in state besides Michele Bachmann possibly (in a nutshell she was also Sec of Transportation due to Lt. Gov. being a nothing job, and became the scapegoat for the bridge collapse. The Senate thus refused to reapprove her as Sec of Transportation.)

How many states have a Lt. Governor with any duties? The only ones I can think of are Alaska, Hawaii, and Utah, where the Lt. Governor basically does the job of the Secretary of State.

In Texas the Lt. Governor has more power than the Governor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 15, 2009, 11:36:30 AM
To clarify, the Lt. Governor here does have some official duties - he presides over the State Senate (and not like the Vice President who "presides" over the US Senate but never shows up; our guy actually does it everyday they're in session). No administrative duties though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 15, 2009, 03:36:08 PM
Looking at past gubernatorial elections, it now looked pretty amazing and improbable that former Governor Gary Locke did so well in Eastern Washington in 1996 and 2000.  He won 57% of the vote in Spokane Co, 51% in Walla Walla Co and came within a point of winning the GOP bastions of Benton and Franklin Co in 2000.  And this was running against a candidate with a plan from God in 1996 and a talk-show host in 2000 - natural constituencies for conservative Eastern Washington.  On the other hand, he seemed to have slightly underperformed in King Co (66%) by today's standards.

My question is has the state become more polarized in the ensuing years?  Was Gary Locke still relatively popular when he left office and how do Washingtonians today view him in general?  Was he viewed as governor of one Washington or just another Subaru driving liberal from Seattle?   Thanks for any comments.

Personally I saw Locke as being a very popular but truthfully mediocre governor. While he could bring a large number of people together he also was unwilling to put himself out there on certain issues that might be contentious. Basically he was terrified of making people angry it seems. We will have to see what comes of him in the next few years. I have a feeling he will not be done in the political world after he finishes up as the commerce secretary.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 15, 2009, 03:52:06 PM
Locke accomplished nothing as Governor and then tried to cut taxes. He was a horrible Governor and a mediocre Democrat.

But his new job as Commerce Secretary is a perfect fit for him. A do-nothing man for a do-nothing department.

In short: I am not a fan.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 15, 2009, 04:58:04 PM
He should change his surname to "Bailey".


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: The Mikado on November 15, 2009, 05:07:02 PM
So Washington has another waste of a Lt. Gov. office like Minnesota. There's a small movement in the Minn. legislature to abolish the Lt. Gov. option and let the Sec of State be next in succession but for some reason no one seems to want to get behind it. This is despite the current Lt. Gov. being basically the most unpopular political figure in state besides Michele Bachmann possibly (in a nutshell she was also Sec of Transportation due to Lt. Gov. being a nothing job, and became the scapegoat for the bridge collapse. The Senate thus refused to reapprove her as Sec of Transportation.)

How many states have a Lt. Governor with any duties? The only ones I can think of are Alaska, Hawaii, and Utah, where the Lt. Governor basically does the job of the Secretary of State.

In Texas the Lt. Governor has more power than the Governor.

True, but even in Texas, the bully pulpit of being Governor and the possibility to raise public outcry and pressure on the legislature does help augment the admittedly absurdly-weak office of Governor.  Also, the Governor's power to call the legislature into special session is a lot more relevant in most states: Texas has what might be the laziest legislature in the First World (certainly the laziest with such a large, important jurisdiction), and the words "special session" strike fear into their hearts.

I'm not disagreeing with you, I'm just saying that the Governor of Texas does have some real influence.  The Lt. Governor is "the most powerful" official, but it's a very smoke-filled-back-room power.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 16, 2009, 02:30:03 AM
Looking at past gubernatorial elections, it now looked pretty amazing and improbable that former Governor Gary Locke did so well in Eastern Washington in 1996 and 2000.  He won 57% of the vote in Spokane Co, 51% in Walla Walla Co and came within a point of winning the GOP bastions of Benton and Franklin Co in 2000.  And this was running against a candidate with a plan from God in 1996 and a talk-show host in 2000 - natural constituencies for conservative Eastern Washington.  On the other hand, he seemed to have slightly underperformed in King Co (66%) by today's standards.

My question is has the state become more polarized in the ensuing years?  Was Gary Locke still relatively popular when he left office and how do Washingtonians today view him in general?  Was he viewed as governor of one Washington or just another Subaru driving liberal from Seattle?   Thanks for any comments.

Locke wasn't very popular when he left office.  During his first term, he had sky-high approval ratings in the 60%-70% range.  When the tech bubble burst early in his second term, his approvals slid all the way into the 30s.  He eventually recovered somewhat, but IIRC he left office with approvals in the mid-40s -- not horrid, but mediocre at best.

Locke was a terrific campaigner and knew how to collect political capital but wasn't very good about spending it.  It often seemed that when having to choose between maintaining his popularity or actually getting something done, he chose the former.  There is merit to the charge that he didn't do much, although in fairness he dealt with a GOP controlled state legislature for a good portion of his term.

Ideologically, Locke was certainly no firebreathing liberal.  He was a left-leaning centrist and very cautious.

To his credit, Locke's tenure was scandal-free and his governance was competent (which is more than his predecessor Mike Lowry can say).  But compared to the bold moves pushed by Gov. Gregoire (the gas tax, beefed up funding and programs for education and health, environmental initiatives for green jobs and Puget Sound cleanup, passing gay rights bills, etc.) his record looks meek by comparison.  


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 16, 2009, 03:13:01 AM
I agree with everything Ogre Mage said. And to expand on the last sentence of his post, I think Gregoire is going to go down as one of the best Governors in state history. Her record thus far has been pretty phenomenal all things considered (although I and other liberals will naturally continue to prod her to go further).

I'm also a little annoyed with her right now for jumping on the silly "return-ballots-by-election-day" bandwagon.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 16, 2009, 03:16:02 AM
I'm also a little annoyed with her right now for jumping on the silly "return-ballots-by-election-day" bandwagon.

ugh, is that seriously gaining traction?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 16, 2009, 03:25:51 AM
I'm also a little annoyed with her right now for jumping on the silly "return-ballots-by-election-day" bandwagon.

ugh, is that seriously gaining traction?

Eh, difficult to say. The County Auditors have pretty significant sway over election law and can make a pretty good case against it. And Sam Hunt has never been too crazy about the idea IIRC (but that could be wrong).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 16, 2009, 03:33:49 AM
I agree with everything Ogre Mage said. And to expand on the last sentence of his post, I think Gregoire is going to go down as one of the best Governors in state history. Her record thus far has been pretty phenomenal all things considered (although I and other liberals will naturally continue to prod her to go further).

I'm also a little annoyed with her right now for jumping on the silly "return-ballots-by-election-day" bandwagon.

I've always wondered why Gregoire has such unimpressive ratings if she is so good, as you guys said.
But Ogre Mage's explanation makes sense.  
Too bad that she didn't rub off some of her boldness and decisiveness on Obama.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 16, 2009, 03:36:58 AM
I'm also a little annoyed with her right now for jumping on the silly "return-ballots-by-election-day" bandwagon.

ugh, is that seriously gaining traction?

Eh, difficult to say. The County Auditors have pretty significant sway over election law and can make a pretty good case against it. And Sam Hunt has never been too crazy about the idea IIRC (but that could be wrong).

I would seriously have a coronary if they did that.  College GOTV in Oregon must be the most stressful thing imaginable.  Ugh.

The only thing wrong with the current system is that it's possible to cast a ballot after polls have closed.  I don't know much from the end of the auditor, but does it cost more to count ballots that arrive after Election Day or something?  Because "delayed election results" is seriously the worst argument ever.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 16, 2009, 03:42:48 AM
FWIW in 2008 the bill got a hearing in the House but no action; Senate didn't even have a hearing. So unless something major has changed in the past year I don't think they'll do it (and I'm not sure Gregoire has enough friends in the Legislature for her getting behind it to make too much of a difference unless she decides to make it a priority, which would be weird).

The proposed bill also moves the ballot tabulation start time to 8 o'clock the morning before... personally I wouldn't be too opposed to doing that regardless of the fate of the ballot return portion of the bill.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 16, 2009, 03:45:27 AM
I agree with everything Ogre Mage said. And to expand on the last sentence of his post, I think Gregoire is going to go down as one of the best Governors in state history. Her record thus far has been pretty phenomenal all things considered (although I and other liberals will naturally continue to prod her to go further).

I'm also a little annoyed with her right now for jumping on the silly "return-ballots-by-election-day" bandwagon.

I've always wondered why Gregoire has such unimpressive ratings if she is so good, as you guys said.
But Ogre Mage's explanation makes sense.  
Too bad that she didn't rub off some of her boldness and decisiveness on Obama.

Her low numbers are an indication that she gets stuff done. Also around 50% of the state will never really like her because they still think she stole the 2004 election.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 16, 2009, 04:33:41 AM
I agree with everything Ogre Mage said. And to expand on the last sentence of his post, I think Gregoire is going to go down as one of the best Governors in state history. Her record thus far has been pretty phenomenal all things considered (although I and other liberals will naturally continue to prod her to go further).

I'm also a little annoyed with her right now for jumping on the silly "return-ballots-by-election-day" bandwagon.

I've always wondered why Gregoire has such unimpressive ratings if she is so good, as you guys said.
But Ogre Mage's explanation makes sense.  
Too bad that she didn't rub off some of her boldness and decisiveness on Obama.

Some of Gregoire's suffering approval has to do with the divisiveness of the 2004 elections and the fact she's willing to spend political capital to achieve goals, like Meeker and I said.  And many governors have bad approvals these days given the economy.

There is, however, another element.  Whereas Locke was a good campaigner, Gregoire isn't.  I don't think the glad-handing aspect of politics is her strength.  And the governor's communications office is often regarded as the weak link in her chain -- I hear there's been a lot of turnover there.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 16, 2009, 04:41:07 AM
Whoever was Governor was going to have to make some serious budget cuts and suffer a significant loss in popularity for it... Relying on the sales tax so much is just asking for trouble come recession time.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on November 16, 2009, 03:32:44 PM
I agree with everything Ogre Mage said. And to expand on the last sentence of his post, I think Gregoire is going to go down as one of the best Governors in state history. Her record thus far has been pretty phenomenal all things considered (although I and other liberals will naturally continue to prod her to go further).

I'm also a little annoyed with her right now for jumping on the silly "return-ballots-by-election-day" bandwagon.

I've always wondered why Gregoire has such unimpressive ratings if she is so good, as you guys said.
But Ogre Mage's explanation makes sense.  
Too bad that she didn't rub off some of her boldness and decisiveness on Obama.

Some of Gregoire's suffering approval has to do with the divisiveness of the 2004 elections and the fact she's willing to spend political capital to achieve goals, like Meeker and I said.  And many governors have bad approvals these days given the economy.

There is, however, another element.  Whereas Locke was a good campaigner, Gregoire isn't.  I don't think the glad-handing aspect of politics is her strength.  And the governor's communications office is often regarded as the weak link in her chain -- I hear there's been a lot of turnover there.
Nice analysis alcon, bgwah, Ogre.  My impression of Gov Locke was he's a likable guy who governed competently without making a lot of waves.    You know, being subjected to the endless vitriol directed at Gregoire in the media you'd think she's in the same league as Granholm, Patterson and Schwarzenegger.  Her record has been pretty moderate and she's navigated through budget issues without raising taxes or causing a California style meltdown.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 16, 2009, 04:34:41 PM
Question: does anyone sees a future for Gregoire after 2012 in a possible Obama administration?
She doesn't have many options since both Washington senators are relatively young and safe.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 16, 2009, 05:54:37 PM
Question: does anyone sees a future for Gregoire after 2012 in a possible Obama administration?
She doesn't have many options since both Washington senators are relatively young and safe.

She'd make a phenomenal Attorney General for Obama's second term. In terms of likelihood I'd place them fairly high - being an early supporter of Obama certainly helps her in that sense as well. She was also mentioned earlier this year as a possible Supreme Court Justice.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 16, 2009, 07:07:51 PM
Question: does anyone sees a future for Gregoire after 2012 in a possible Obama administration?
She doesn't have many options since both Washington senators are relatively young and safe.

She'd make a phenomenal Attorney General for Obama's second term. In terms of likelihood I'd place them fairly high - being an early supporter of Obama certainly helps her in that sense as well. She was also mentioned earlier this year as a possible Supreme Court Justice.

I could also see her as a supreme court justice. And I definitely think her early support for Obama was important, she was the only one of the big three (the senators plus governor) who endorsed Obama and at least helped him a bit as he cruised to a huge victory here.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 16, 2009, 07:34:43 PM
Justice Gregoire... I like it!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 17, 2009, 12:19:14 AM
I would say there is a good chance she is interested in a Cabinet appointment during Obama's second term and a good chance she would be chosen.

One rather little known fact is that then Attorney General Gregoire was the WA Dems first choice to challenge Slade Gorton in 2000.  She took a pass because of her family situation and Maria Cantwell narrowly defeated Gorton.  What I thought was notable about this article from Feb. 1999 was:

Quote
In some ways, she is drawn less by the appeal of a career in the U.S. Senate than the possibility of a Cabinet post in a Gore administration. After the Clinton-Gore re-election in 1996, Gregoire said she was on the short list for U.S. attorney general and director of the Environmental Protection Agency.
http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/archive/?date=19990213&slug=2943992 (http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/archive/?date=19990213&slug=2943992)

It suggests Gregoire was interested in a Cabinet appointment as far back as the 1990s and there was reciprocal interest from the Clinton-Gore crowd.  It makes one wonder what might have happened to Gregoire if Gore had won in 2000.  And her political stature is even larger now.

Having watched the politics of the Supreme Court, I don't think she will be chosen for that position.  


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 17, 2009, 12:49:42 AM
Unrelated note: The Seattle Times is reporting that the Washington GOP has failed to pay its $55,000 share of the lawsuit against the top-two primary. A GOP lawyer said that the state should "not expect payment any time soon". Joke party.

Oh and the Libertarians owe $16,300 as well. I'm pretty sure that's more money than the Washington Libertarian Party has raised in its entire existence though so I don't really blame them for giving up.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 17, 2009, 01:46:33 AM
Isn't Gregoire a little old to become a Supreme Court Justice?
I certainly could see her becoming Attorney General, especially if Napolitano (another obvious choice) is appointed to the Supreme Court.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on November 17, 2009, 11:40:08 PM
Isn't Gregoire a little old to become a Supreme Court Justice?
I certainly could see her becoming Attorney General, especially if Napolitano (another obvious choice) is appointed to the Supreme Court.

I've always felt that age was a positive for Supreme Court, although I can see how a selfish leader would want a young justice. But isn't a healthy justice more important than a young one?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 18, 2009, 08:52:45 PM
Quasi-final Pierce County numbers.  University Place no longer sucks quite as much (Steilacoom either.)

Auburn (part): 51.94%
Bonney Lake: 43.37%
Carbonado: 26.79%
DuPont: 47.31%
Eatonville: 41.05%
Edgewood: 45.98%
Fife: 45.19%
Fircrest: 54.22%
Gig Harbor: 51.00%
Lakewood: 46.87%
Milton (part): 43.06%
Orting: 41.30%
Pacific (part): 36.36%
Puyallup: 44.61%
Roy: 33.33%
Ruston: 58.73%
South Prairie: 36.56%
Steilacoom: 50.93%
Sumner: 49.12%
Tacoma: 57.62%
University Place: 50.79%
Wilkeson: 51.30%
Unincorporated: 42.61%

Tacoma neighborhoods:

Downtown/Port: 79.56%
North End: 72.21%
Hilltop: 65.26%
Central Tacoma: 60.26%
West End: 54.59%
South Tacoma: 53.99%
Northeast Tacoma: 50.89%
East Tacoma: 50.12%
South End: 46.58%

Best precincts in the county were Downtown Tacoma (82.70%), University of Puget Sound area in North Tacoma (80.56%), and west of the Proctor District in North Tacoma (77.75%).  R-71 performed clearly better than Obama from the Proctor District in North Tacoma, west through downtown.

On the other way, the exurban developments south along Mountain Highway (out toward the Roy Y, Graham, Elk Plain) and southeast of Tacoma (Midland, Summit) were complete bloodbaths.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 18, 2009, 09:04:11 PM
Why does Carbonado hate gay people so much? :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 18, 2009, 09:45:49 PM
Why does Carbonado hate gay people so much? :(

I don't know much about Carbonado or Wilkeson.  I've never been to either.  Both are former coal towns, heavily white, weirdly low poverty rates for ex-mining areas.  Wikeson seems to have more touristy jobs while Carbonado has an odd number of education workers.

Wilkeson is so far the only McCain/Approve R-71 town.  It's worth mentioning that Obama only got 33.81% in Carbonado, so his fall there wasn't a major anomaly or anything.  I think Clinton won both handily in the primary.  I haven't figured out, besides Wilkeson having a touristy downtown, why they vote so differently.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 19, 2009, 01:37:12 AM
Names being thrown around for Constantine's seat:

- State Rep. Zack Hudgins (D-Tukwilla)
- State Sen. Joe McDermott (D- West Seattle)
- Normandy Park Mayor Shawn McEvoy
- Seattle City Councilmember Jan Drago

It's not clear whether the appointee will be someone who wants to run for the seat in November or just a caretaker (Drago says she's cool with being a caretaker). Without Constantine the County Council is split 4-4 (even though it's "non-partisan") so this could get bloody.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on November 19, 2009, 02:02:04 AM
Milton (part): 43.06%
Pacific (part): 36.36%

Why are Milton and Pacific so conservative?  Are these sparsely populated industrial areas or wingnut enclaves?




Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 19, 2009, 10:08:23 AM
Milton (part): 43.06%
Pacific (part): 36.36%

Why are Milton and Pacific so conservative?  Are these sparsely populated industrial areas or wingnut enclaves?

Nah, Obama won both.  They're just lower middle class exurban areas, the exact kind of place where R-71 got slaughtered.

There were also only 22 votes in the Pierce County portion of Pacific.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 19, 2009, 01:51:57 PM
I have never really understood why Pierce county is so conservative in relation to the rest of the Puget Sound area. It has a major urban area in Tacoma, a good amount of educated people and while yes it does have a military base so do Kitsap and Island counties... Perhaps it just needs to be  the odd man out.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 19, 2009, 03:24:17 PM
I have never really understood why Pierce county is so conservative in relation to the rest of the Puget Sound area. It has a major urban area in Tacoma, a good amount of educated people and while yes it does have a military base so do Kitsap and Island counties... Perhaps it just needs to be  the odd man out.

Pierce County just has a heck of a lot of this crap (http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=graham,+wa&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=32.527387,56.513672&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=Graham,+Pierce,+Washington&ll=47.103784,-122.391472&spn=0.054567,0.110378&t=h&z=13) -- mid-density, fairly uneducated sprawlburbia.  Take the Elk Plain-Graham-Spanaway area, for instance.  Nearly 100,000 people.  Median household income is about 25% higher than national average.  Bachelor's degree possession is nearly 40% lower.

Pierce County suburbs aren't Seattle suburbs, too.  Take University Place.  Median household income about 30% higher than national average.  But even in the most "polished" Tacoma suburb, only a third of residents have a bachelor's degree.  In parts of North Tacoma, that number is around 60%.  But that part of Tacoma is a minority in Tacoma, which is in turn less than a quarter of Pierce County.

Pierce County does have areas with an educated, middle class King County-ish culture.  It's just that it has a lot more areas, with a lot more people, that there's just no reason to go to, unless you happen to know somebody in the 312th Avenue Court East sprawlfest.  And those areas are low-education, dual-income, lower middle class family areas.  They were bad for OK for Gore, bad for John Kerry, better for Obama, and death for R-71.

Thurston and Snohomish have a lot of that too, though, and King County has some.  Outside of the core Seattle metro, growth management in the Puget Sound was pretty horrible.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 19, 2009, 06:04:36 PM
I have never really understood why Pierce county is so conservative in relation to the rest of the Puget Sound area. It has a major urban area in Tacoma, a good amount of educated people and while yes it does have a military base so do Kitsap and Island counties... Perhaps it just needs to be  the odd man out.

Pierce County just has a heck of a lot of this crap (http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=graham,+wa&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=32.527387,56.513672&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=Graham,+Pierce,+Washington&ll=47.103784,-122.391472&spn=0.054567,0.110378&t=h&z=13) -- mid-density, fairly uneducated sprawlburbia.  Take the Elk Plain-Graham-Spanaway area, for instance.  Nearly 100,000 people.  Median household income is about 25% higher than national average.  Bachelor's degree possession is nearly 40% lower.

Pierce County suburbs aren't Seattle suburbs, too.  Take University Place.  Median household income about 30% higher than national average.  But even in the most "polished" Tacoma suburb, only a third of residents have a bachelor's degree.  In parts of North Tacoma, that number is around 60%.  But that part of Tacoma is a minority in Tacoma, which is in turn less than a quarter of Pierce County.

Pierce County does have areas with an educated, middle class King County-ish culture.  It's just that it has a lot more areas, with a lot more people, that there's just no reason to go to, unless you happen to know somebody in the 312th Avenue Court East sprawlfest.  And those areas are low-education, dual-income, lower middle class family areas.  They were bad for OK for Gore, bad for John Kerry, better for Obama, and death for R-71.

Thurston and Snohomish have a lot of that too, though, and King County has some.  Outside of the core Seattle metro, growth management in the Puget Sound was pretty horrible.

But here in Thurston we still outweigh all the suburb areas drastically by the very democratically partisan areas of Olympia, Boston Harbor and Evergreen.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 19, 2009, 06:05:56 PM
I knew that would be a link to Graham before clicking it. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 20, 2009, 05:12:25 AM
Some random R-71 comparisons to tide over for precinct results.  Clockwise from upper left: R-71 margin vs. Obama in 2008 Presidential; R-71 margin vs. Kerry in 2004 Presidential; turnout (5% intervals ranging from >40 to >70); change in R-71 margin since election night (in 1% intervals).

()

R-71's performance in Kitsap was really weird.  Clallam, Jefferson, Island and San Juan are odd to, but they all have an older, socially moderate population to (sort of) explain them.  Kitsap's demographics are closer to Snohomish and Pierce's.

My only theory is that R-71 did very well in North Kitsap and on Bainbridge, which would kinda fit with other results, but Bremerton & Co. are lower middle class and should have seen big drops that canceled North Kitsap's out.  We'll see.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 20, 2009, 11:58:35 AM
How is it possible for the state swing to be larger than any individual county swing?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 20, 2009, 12:26:37 PM
How is it possible for the state swing to be larger than any individual county swing?

King County was 25% of the vote on Election Night and is now 32%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 20, 2009, 07:29:27 PM
Pierce's finalish abstract results:

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on November 20, 2009, 08:26:24 PM
Quote
  Pierce County just has a heck of a lot of this crap (http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=graham,+wa&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=32.527387,56.513672&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=Graham,+Pierce,+Washington&ll=47.103784,-122.391472&spn=0.054567,0.110378&t=h&z=13) -- mid-density, fairly uneducated sprawlburbia.  Take the Elk Plain-Graham-Spanaway area, for instance.  Nearly 100,000 people.  Median household income is about 25% higher than national average.  Bachelor's degree possession is nearly 40% lower.

Exactly the area I had in mind.  Although isn't the Elk Plain-Graham-Spanaway corridor heavily populated by military personnel and cops, firefighters?  I noticed there is a Barista Gone Wild stand at SR-7 and 217 St Ct E in Spanaway.  Perhaps worth checking out?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on November 20, 2009, 10:22:14 PM
Kind of unrelated, but has anyone ever played the game "Mother"? In English, it's nicknamed "Earthbound Zero". Anyway, I imported it, and there's actually a place called "Spookane". The game is an RPG about paranormal stuff, etc etc and the town is infested with ghosts when you first get there... though it was pretty funny. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 21, 2009, 02:35:41 AM
For shame, 28-424. For shame.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 21, 2009, 07:39:26 PM
Here's a fun map, R-71 margin vs. Obama margin:

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 25, 2009, 08:25:54 PM
I have precinct returns for all counties but: Adams, Clark, King, Pend Oreille, Walla Walla, Yakima.

So far R-71's best places (with at least 250 votes cast, as will go for all lists here) are:

1. Langley: 81.40%
2. Port Townsend: 80.12%
3. Bainbridge Island: 79.40%
4. Olympia: 72.56%
5. La Conner: 70.84%
6. Bellingham: 69.99%
7. Friday Harbor: 66.97%
8. Coupeville: 62.95%
9. Pullman: 62.90%
10. Edmonds: 61.84%

Summary: Hippies-by-the-sea (1,2,5,7,8); educated Seattle suburbs (3,10); college towns (6,9) and Olympia.

Its worst locales were:

1. Lynden: 20.70%
2. Pomeroy: 22.77%
3. Odessa: 23.56%
4. Davenport: 24.61%
5. Brewster: 26.35%
6. Kettle Falls: 27.47%
7. Napavine: 27.48%
8. Deer Park: 27.48%
9. Benton City: 28.09%
10. Colfax: 28.33%

Dutch Calvinists (1) and non-specific small towns (2-10).

Results for locations with more than 2,500 votes cast:

Aberdeen: 48.08%
Anacortes: 56.10%
Arlington: 41.78%
Bainbridge Island: 79.40%
Bellingham: 69.99%
Bonney Lake: 43.40%
Bremerton: 54.02%
Centralia: 38.41%
Edgewood: 45.96%
Edmonds: 61.84%
Ellensburg: 55.43%
Everett: 53.62%
Ferndale: 44.49%
Kennewick: 34.12%
Lacey: 54.75%
Lake Stevens: 48.50%
Lakewood: 46.85%
Longview: 45.81%
Lynden: 20.70%
Lynnwood: 54.30%
Marysville: 44.09%
Mill Creek: 51.88%
Monroe: 44.95%
Moses Lake: 31.68%
Mount Vernon: 51.64%
Mountlake Terrace: 59.16%
Mukilteo: 57.76%
Oak Harbor: 42.94%
Olympia: 72.56%
Pasco: 32.93%
Port Angeles: 54.97%
Port Orchard: 50.83% (with McCormick Woods annexation)
Port Townsend: 80.12%
Poulsbo: 52.21%
Pullman: 62.90%
Puyallup: 44.56%
Richland: 39.70%
Spokane: 46.86%
Spokane Valley: 35.38%
Sumner: 49.12%
Tacoma: 57.61%
Tumwater: 58.70%
University Place: 50.81%
Wenatchee: 39.02%
West Richland: 32.51%

Compared to Obama's margin performance, R-71's best showings were:

1. Ilwaco: +6.84%
2. Langley: +5.32%
3. La Conner: +2.44%
4. Bainbridge Island: +1.78%
5. Friday Harbor: +1.56%
6. Sequim: +1.50%
7. Republic: +1.15%
8. Anacortes: +0.63%
9. Richland: +0.22%
10. Dayton: +0.02%

Some appearances from the above lists.  Anacortes and Sequim are in R-71 friendly regions and have seen an influx of educated retirees.  Richland has always been more Republican than it is conservative, ditto Columbia County (Dayton).  Ilwaco (Pacific County) is curious, although Obama did lag there.  Republic (Ferry County) is just weird.

Worst swings against:

1. Coulee Dam: -51.34%
2. Kelso: -35.77%
3. Brewster: -35.34%
4. Quincy: -33.28%
5. Electric City: -32.72%
6. Cosmopolis: -32.56%
7. Fife: -31.66%
8. Odessa: -29.76%
9. Longview: -29.06%
10. Kettle Falls: -27.89%

If I hadn't mentioned this before, working-class "social welfare Democrats" -- white and otherwise -- didn't much care for R-71.

Points of curiosity:

* The biggest overall swing to R-71 was in the town of Krupp (Grant County), AKA Marlin, which voted for Mike Gravel in the Primary, crushed Obama in the general, and then was a tie for R-71.  Weird.

* So far, ignoring Krupp's tie, only one town (Wilkeson in Pierce County) voted for both McCain and Approve on R-71.

* College students liked R-71, they just didn't vote.  There were 100% Approve dorm precincts at Washington State University and Western Washington University, but turnout was below 20%.

* So far, the best precinct with over 100 votes was in Bellingham, south of Lowell Park below WWU (201-8 Approve, or 96.17%)

I-1033 stuff soon.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 27, 2009, 05:39:22 PM
Evergreen wasn't at 100%?!!? I am shocked. Though I could see some voting against it simply because it didn't go far enough (as in it wasn't full marriage.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 27, 2009, 05:59:52 PM
The WSU precincts didn't have many voters (3 and 6). Still, the Fairhaven College (WWU) managed to get 31/31, which I think is impressive. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 27, 2009, 09:39:47 PM
Evergreen wasn't at 100%?!!? I am shocked. Though I could see some voting against it simply because it didn't go far enough (as in it wasn't full marriage.)

There was an active "nothing but marriage" effort at TESC.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 28, 2009, 03:38:03 AM
R-71 maps (click for larger version)

Kitsap
() (http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/5033/kitsapr71.png)

Spokane
() (http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/2936/spokaner71.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 28, 2009, 03:03:09 PM
Clallam
() (http://img39.imageshack.us/img39/5112/clallamr71.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 28, 2009, 04:09:30 PM
Skagit (I'm now suppressing precincts with very few votes)

() (http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/652/skagitr71.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 28, 2009, 04:23:45 PM
Grant
() (http://img37.imageshack.us/img37/6097/grantr71.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 28, 2009, 05:05:46 PM
Chelan
() (http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/6052/chelanr71.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on November 30, 2009, 05:11:18 PM
What's the strong yes precinct running across the north of Chelan?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 30, 2009, 06:25:35 PM
What's the strong yes precinct running across the north of Chelan?

Alcon can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that precinct includes Holden Village, a liberal Lutheran church retreat type place. It's kind of difficult to describe exactly what it is.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 30, 2009, 06:53:57 PM
Yeah...although Holden's south of Lake Chelan, Meeker's right about the explanation.  Result wasn't especially impressive; Obama won 36-4-2 and R-71 only won 17-9.

The green precinct northeast of Chelan is Azwell, which had 9 votes, and is essentially a predictable turnout of 3 Democrats, 3 Republicans and 3 libertariany swing voters.  It's noise.

Walla Walla is trying to charge me $25 because they have "technical problems" with uploading a spreadsheet, screw 'em.  I've finished everywhere else though (except King's release tomorrow)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on December 01, 2009, 01:35:03 AM
So is it ELCA territory? That makes me proud.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 01, 2009, 01:55:42 AM
So is it ELCA territory? That makes me proud.

Website seems to indicate so: http://www.holdenvillage.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=257&Itemid=197


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 01, 2009, 03:32:49 PM
King County (with Pierce County splits where appropriate)
Algona: 48.73%
Auburn: 48.15%
Beaux Arts Village: 73.38%
Bellevue: 64.23%
Black Diamond: 44.18%
Burien: 60.96%
Carnation: 55.60%
Clyde Hill: 62.18%
Covington: 48.99%
Des Moines: 56.42%
Duvall: 55.12%
Enumclaw: 45.49%
Federal Way: 50.67%
Hunts Point: 60.54%
Issaquah: 64.94%
Kenmore: 63.52%
Kent: 51.34%
Kirkland: 66.49%
Lake Forest Park: 72.96%
Maple Valley: 47.85%
Medina: 63.42%
Mercer Island: 70.46%
Newcastle: 59.66%
Normandy Park: 58.38%
North Bend: 55.63%
Pacific: 46.35%
Redmond: 65.28%
Renton: 55.76%
Sammamish: 61.92%
SeaTac: 53.44%
Seattle: 83.72%
Shoreline: 68.34%
Skykomish: 47.83%
Snoqualmie: 60.32%
Tukwila: 58.12%
Woodinville: 59.55%
Yarrow Point: 64.80%

Those are better performances than Obama in Beaux Arts Village, Bellevue, Clyde Hill, Hunts Point, Issaquah, Kirkland, Medina, MeCrcer Island, Sammamish and Yarrow Point.  They all have one thing in common:  Rich.  The Seattle performance was impressive, and not especially far behind Obama.

R-71 lost three Seattle precincts:  A locally-conservative precinct full of Asians in the International District (28-36), a minority-heavy Rainier View precinct (53-67), and a Northgate retirement home precinct (119-125).  All of the single-digit margin precincts were in the Rainier Valley, especially the working-class+black Dunlap neighborhood.

Aside from a 9-0 precinct, R-71's best performances were at two Capitol Hill precincts, where it won 180-1 and 160-1.  R-71 broke 95% at 41 Seattle precincts.

Neighborhood results for Seattle, and hopefully maps, soon.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 01, 2009, 03:55:58 PM
Seattle neighborhoods by % Approve.  In parenthesis are the number of Approve votes for every Reject vote.

Broadway: 95.88% (23.3)
Stevens: 94.10% (16)
Fremont: 92.95% (13.2)
Eastlake: 92.75% (12.8)
North Stevens: 92.75% (12.8)
North Broadway: 92.54% (12.4)
Wallingford: 92.05% (11.6)
Madrona: 91.80% (11.2)
Phinney Ridge: 91.36% (10.6)
Meridian: 90.51% (9.5)
West Woodland: 89.93% (8.9)
Portage Bay: 89.77% (8.8)
Montlake: 89.61% (8.6)
Central District: 89.46% (8.5)
West Queen Anne: 89.24% (8.3)
Ravenna: 88.86% (8)
Madison Valley: 88.78% (7.9)
University District: 88.71% (7.9)
Lower Queen Anne: 87.84% (7.2)
Sand Point: 87.55% (7)
Whittier Heights: 87.42% (7)
Westlake: 87.33% (6.9)
Roosevelt: 87.18% (6.8)
South Lake Union: 87.18% (6.8)
First Hill: 87.16% (6.8)
Green Lake: 86.90% (6.6)
East Queen Anne: 86.86% (6.6)
Ballard: 86.73% (6.5)
North Queen Anne: 86.56% (6.4)
Mount Baker: 86.53% (6.4)
Bryant: 86.46% (6.4)
Denny-Blaine: 86.23% (6.3)
Belltown: 86.20% (6.2)
Leschi: 86.14% (6.2)
Greenwood: 86.02% (6.2)
Wedgwood: 85.53% (5.9)
Downtown: 85.50% (5.9)
Loyal Heights: 85.45% (5.9)
Atlantic: 84.78% (5.6)
Denny Regrade: 84.69% (5.5)
Maple Leaf: 84.40% (5.4)
North Delridge: 84.33% (5.4)
Hawthorne Hills: 84.29% (5.4)
Meadowbrook: 83.84% (5.2)
Georgetown/Beacon Bluff: 83.12% (4.9)
Interbay/Gilman: 82.97% (4.9)
West Seattle Junction: 82.57% (4.7)
Columbia City: 82.50% (4.7)
Fairmount Park: 82.31% (4.7)
Pioneer Square: 82.00% (4.6)
North College Park: 81.97% (4.5)
Seward Park: 81.90% (4.5)
Roxhill: 81.80% (4.5)
Matthews Beach: 81.72% (4.5)
Gatewood: 81.62% (4.4)
Sunset Hill: 81.36% (4.4)
Seaview: 80.97% (4.3)
North Beacon Hill/SoDo: 80.59% (4.2)
View Ridge: 80.59% (4.2)
Laurelhurst: 80.48% (4.1)
Windermere: 80.41% (4.1)
Lawton Park: 80.36% (4.1)
Victory Heights: 80.23% (4.1)
North Admiral: 79.65% (3.9)
High Point: 79.54% (3.9)
Cedar Park: 79.10% (3.8)
Crown Hill: 79.06% (3.8)
Southeast Magnolia: 78.83% (3.7)
Genesee: 78.75% (3.7)
North Beach/Blue Ridge: 78.13% (3.6)
Fauntleroy: 77.97% (3.5)
Alki: 77.83% (3.5)
Broadview: 77.60% (3.5)
Bitter Lake: 77.30% (3.4)
Madison Park: 77.22% (3.4)
Olympic Hills: 77.04% (3.4)
Briarcliff: 75.55% (3.1)
Haller Lake: 75.45% (3.1)
Riverview: 74.39% (2.9)
Arbor Heights: 73.41% (2.8)
Highland Park: 72.73% (2.7)
Pinehurst: 72.13% (2.6)
South Delridge: 71.77% (2.5)
Rainier Beach: 69.72% (2.3)
South Park: 68.85% (2.2)
Mid Beacon Hill: 68.80% (2.2)
Brighton/NewHolly: 66.41% (2)
Dunlap: 64.71% (1.8)
International District/Yesler Terrace: 64.37% (1.8)
Rainier View: 62.19% (1.6)
South Beacon Hill/Holly Park: 61.87% (1.6)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 01, 2009, 05:08:36 PM
Final results by CD (I'll probably get more results as I crack suppressed precincts):

1st: 59.15%
2nd: 51.24%
3rd: 47.07%
4th: 35.20%
5th: 38.48%
6th: 52.02%
7th: 81.97%
8th: 53.84%
9th: 50.11%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 01, 2009, 11:57:11 PM
It did better in the 8th then the 6th or 9th? Makes sense, but still weird.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on December 03, 2009, 01:45:07 AM
Wow, no wonder it feels so pro gay-rights here, Issaquah is even stronger than Bellevue. Probably thanks to new development.

The 8th is definitely more supportive of it than the 6th or 9th. The Eastside is wary of taxes, but is very socially liberal. Drugs, sex, gay marriage, civil liberties, you name it; this is probably the most non-religious and least socially conservative suburban area in the country. Plus the 8th includes a large chunk of rural King and Pierce County, so the Eastside must have supported r71 by nearly 60%.

Eastern Washington really sucked.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 03, 2009, 02:00:37 AM
Wow, no wonder it feels so pro gay-rights here, Issaquah is even stronger than Bellevue. Probably thanks to new development.

The 8th is definitely more supportive of it than the 6th or 9th. The Eastside is wary of taxes, but is very socially liberal. Drugs, sex, gay marriage, civil liberties, you name it; this is probably the most non-religious and least socially conservative suburban area in the country. Plus the 8th includes a large chunk of rural King and Pierce County, so the Eastside must have supported r71 by nearly 60%.

Eastern Washington really sucked.

Yep, it did pretty well in Issaquah Highlands, especially in the condo-heavy area.

The Issaquah swing was a combination of two things.  First, a really strong performance in that rich hilly area where all the streets are named after mountains (is there an official name for it so I don't sound dumb? :P) and then -- believe it or not -- a big, ~20-point swing at Providence Point.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 03, 2009, 02:18:04 AM
First, a really strong performance in that rich hilly area where all the streets are named after mountains (is there an official name for it so I don't sound dumb? :P)

Squak Mountain?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on December 03, 2009, 02:37:32 AM
Wow, no wonder it feels so pro gay-rights here, Issaquah is even stronger than Bellevue. Probably thanks to new development.

The 8th is definitely more supportive of it than the 6th or 9th. The Eastside is wary of taxes, but is very socially liberal. Drugs, sex, gay marriage, civil liberties, you name it; this is probably the most non-religious and least socially conservative suburban area in the country. Plus the 8th includes a large chunk of rural King and Pierce County, so the Eastside must have supported r71 by nearly 60%.

A relative of mine worked for Dow Constantine's campaign and spent time contacting swing and independent voters on the Eastside.  He was struck by how strongly pro-choice the area was.  While pro-choice doesn't necessarily = pro-gay rights, the Bellevue/Redmond/Issaquah/Medina results don't surprise me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on December 03, 2009, 12:07:46 PM
First, a really strong performance in that rich hilly area where all the streets are named after mountains (is there an official name for it so I don't sound dumb? :P)

Squak Mountain?
That would be it - although I'm unaware of an official area/subdivision name.  Mostly consisting of older middle-class neighborhood, with some very affluent folks on the summit (over 1000 ft).  Its one of those areas that the strong performance by Kerry and Obama kinda surprised me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on December 03, 2009, 12:23:37 PM
Wow, no wonder it feels so pro gay-rights here, Issaquah is even stronger than Bellevue. Probably thanks to new development.

The 8th is definitely more supportive of it than the 6th or 9th. The Eastside is wary of taxes, but is very socially liberal. Drugs, sex, gay marriage, civil liberties, you name it; this is probably the most non-religious and least socially conservative suburban area in the country. Plus the 8th includes a large chunk of rural King and Pierce County, so the Eastside must have supported r71 by nearly 60%.

Eastern Washington really sucked.
Your observation is correct.  The Eastside, which I consider as the area south and east of the Snohomish-King County Line to SR900/I-90, certainly fits these characteristics.  It has a strong libertarian lean - free market and pro-trade, very socially liberal folks who also happen to be quite pro-gun rights.  As a former Republican turned Libertarian, the Eastside is one of the few areas of the country that fit this description.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 03, 2009, 01:12:37 PM
Wow, no wonder it feels so pro gay-rights here, Issaquah is even stronger than Bellevue. Probably thanks to new development.

The 8th is definitely more supportive of it than the 6th or 9th. The Eastside is wary of taxes, but is very socially liberal. Drugs, sex, gay marriage, civil liberties, you name it; this is probably the most non-religious and least socially conservative suburban area in the country. Plus the 8th includes a large chunk of rural King and Pierce County, so the Eastside must have supported r71 by nearly 60%.

Eastern Washington really sucked.

My precinct in Sammamish >70% approve on R-71 and >70% no on I-1033. I was pleasantly surprised. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on December 03, 2009, 01:23:46 PM
Relations between Arkansas and Washington state seem to have broken down over the Maurice Clemmons incident:

Quote
Gov. Christine Gregoire of Washington said Wednesday that the state would temporarily stop accepting parolees from Arkansas, escalating the conflict between the states over a man believed to have killed four police officers, days after his release from jail.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/03/us/03tacoma.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/03/us/03tacoma.html)


Quote
When Maurice Clemmons, the man suspected of killing four Lakewood police officers, walked free from a Pierce County jail last week, it wasn't for lack of effort on the part of Washington officials to keep him behind bars.

Documents released Tuesday show that a wide variety of state and local officials — everyone from prosecutors to sheriff's deputies to corrections officers — viewed Clemmons as a dangerous man, and wanted desperately to keep him in custody.

But Washington officials encountered resistance from an unlikely source — their correctional colleagues in Arkansas. The acrimony has since become so intense, according to Pierce County sheriff's spokesman Ed Troyer, that if the two states were adjacent a "border war" would break out.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2010400203_shootingdoc02m.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 03, 2009, 07:14:39 PM
University Place City Councilwoman Jean Brooks died this morning after a ten year battle with cancer. She had served since the city's creation in 1995 and also served as Chair of the Pierce County Democratic Party a few years ago. I knew her personally and must say that this is a terrible loss. Jean was a wonderful woman.

On a related note that I'm not sure if I'd posted or not, Puyallup City Councilman George Dill died of a heart attack a few weeks ago after just being re-elected in a tough fight.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alexander Hamilton on December 04, 2009, 01:30:35 AM
RIP Jean Brooks


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 05, 2009, 02:38:30 AM
King R-71
() (http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/6456/r71king.png)

Seattle R-71 zoom
() (http://img207.imageshack.us/img207/7343/r71seattle.png)

As usual, the two super-dark red precincts (one around Southcenter Mall and one around the Kent Valley) aren't interesting, just very low-vote.  (Same with the precinct at the south of Lake Sammamish)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 05, 2009, 02:50:23 AM
Margin coded maps:

() (http://img192.imageshack.us/img192/9264/r71kingmargin.png)

Seattle zoom:
() (http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/6696/r71seattlemargin.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 05, 2009, 03:15:32 AM
I don't suppose we could get a Snohomish County map?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 05, 2009, 03:48:51 AM
I'd really love to, as I expect it will be pretty interesting, but the one I have is with 2008 precincts.  (King only added two precincts since the version I have, Snoho changed dozens).  Don't suppose you have an in with David Fish at Snohomish County?  I can give it a shot, if not.

Edit: Figured out the Northgate Reject precinct.  A mix of Republicans, probably a lot from senior housing somewhere in there I think (it was only 68% Obama) and, strangely enough, a ton of Ethiopian names on the voter rolls.  Didn't know they were up there.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Hash on December 05, 2009, 08:30:20 AM
What are the precincts that voted NO in Seattle like?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 05, 2009, 04:03:21 PM
What are the precincts that voted NO in Seattle like?

From the top of the Seattle area:

- The two precincts near the county line (actually in Shoreline and not Seattle) are Cristwood, a Lutheran retirement home that leans slightly Republican.

- The precinct in North Seattle is the one I just described -- olds, unusually Republican whites in general, and apartment complexes full of Ethiopians for some reason.

- The one just south of downtown is a mix of Yesler Terrace (low-income development) and Little Saigon, and tends to be Republican-leaning in off-years.

- Of the cluster of precincts at the south end of the Seattle map, only the easternmost (the "L"-facing triangle) is in the city of Seattle.  It's like 50% Asian, 40% Black, 10% White.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 11, 2009, 08:06:43 PM
Here's something a little... curious. I got an e-mail tonight from Gregoire asking to donate money before the "legislative freeze" goes into affect. Seems to be an indicator she's at least considering running for a third term.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on December 12, 2009, 07:45:15 PM
The surprise announcement by Rep Brian Baird in WA-3 not to seek reelection promises to bring on one of the most watched and bitterly fought Congressional races for 2010.  The WA-3 has a PVI of even and was carried by Obama in 2008 and Bush in 2000 and 2004.  The district is anchored by booming Clark County, includes all of Skamania, Lewis, Pacific, Wahkiakum Counties before terminating at the Olympia suburbs of Thurston County.  Realistically, I could envision this district being represented by a Republican before WA-8 would.  Potential candidates for the open seat are:

Democrats:

Rep Deb Wallace (LD-17)
Sen Craig Pridemore (SD-49)

Republicans:

David Castillo
Jon Russell (Washougal Councilmember)
Dave Hedrick
Jaime Herrera (LD-18)

Question: Why is Clark County and SW Washington in general is so conservative-leaning?  Is it an outgrowth of the booming growth from suburbanites fleeing the socially liberal Portland suburbs?





Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 12, 2009, 07:58:53 PM
The surprise announcement by Rep Brian Baird in WA-3 not to seek reelection...

Unless you're Alcon!!

...promises to bring on one of the most watched and bitterly fought Congressional races for 2010.  The WA-3 has a PVI of even and was carried by Obama in 2008 and Bush in 2000 and 2004.  The district is anchored by booming Clark County, includes all of Skamania, Lewis, Pacific, Wahkiakum Counties before terminating at the Olympia suburbs of Thurston County.  Realistically, I could envision this district being represented by a Republican before WA-8 would.  Potential candidates for the open seat are:

Democrats:

Rep Deb Wallace (LD-17)
Sen Craig Pridemore (SD-49)

Republicans:

David Castillo
Jon Russell (Washougal Councilmember)
Dave Hedrick
Jaime Herrera (LD-18)

Question: Why is Clark County and SW Washington in general is so conservative-leaning?  Is it an outgrowth of the booming growth from suburbanites fleeing the socially liberal Portland suburbs?

Clark County is a tax haven for people seeking to avoid Oregon's state income tax and Washington's state sales tax. These kind of people aren't exactly Democratic.

Lewis County lynched a Wobbly back in the day and has been crazy-Republican ever since.

Cowlitz County does lean Democrat, though it loved Dino Rossi. Wahkiakum is small and weird. Pacific leans Democrat. Skamania is also just small and weird.


Oh, and interesting scenario... If we have 2 Democrats and 3+ Republicans in a swing district with a top two primary... ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 12, 2009, 10:13:14 PM
Cheryl Crist (Baird's Democratic opponent in 2008 and 2004) is running as well... Rep. Jim Moeller and either Sen. Brian Hatfield or Rep. Brian Blake are thinking about getting in as well (article said "Rep. Brian Hatfield"; not sure how to interpret that)... haven't actually heard anything about Pridemore (or Brendan Williams for that matter) except for media mentions; nothing from the man himself.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 12, 2009, 11:51:54 PM
I'm pretty sure it's Sen. Brian Hatfield who is running, not Rep. Brian Blake, not that it really matters since they're effectively the same person anyway.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 13, 2009, 12:01:54 AM
Oh, and interesting scenario... If we have 2 Democrats and 3+ Republicans in a swing district with a top two primary... ;D

I would love to see that. A D vs. D race would be hillarious, as unlikely as it is.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on December 13, 2009, 01:11:12 AM
I will no longer have Baird as my congressman! Hopefully we don't do something stupid and get in someone conservative like Smith again... Or an idiot like Baird. Truthfully while he would likely have won re-election it would have been much closer because as of late he has made a number of bad decisions that have angered both the right and left. It will be interesting to see who gets through the primary.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 14, 2009, 07:06:39 PM
Pridemore's getting into the race


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 15, 2009, 04:51:31 AM
Democrats need to be smart here--Run two major candidates and no more and hope the Republicans split the vote enough to doom themselves.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 15, 2009, 05:01:16 AM
Eh, looks like it's a little late for that. In addition to Crist announcing her intentions to run last week, another local party activist/labor type named Maria Rodriguez-Salazar is also entering the race. Crist is from Olympia while this lady is from the Vancouver area.

In addition, Denny Heck appears to be about ready to get into the race. Heck is a former State Senator and Chief of Staff to Booth Gardner as well as a failed candidate for Superintendent of Public Instruction in 1980 or something. He's also the founder of TVW.

So we've already got two Vancouver-area legislators, one Olympia-area activist, one Vancouver-area activist/labor goon, and one old-timer type. Plus the possibility of one Olympia-area legislator getting in (Williams) and one Pacific Coast-area legislator getting in (Hatfield).

If we're not careful it's the Republicans who are going to sneak in two candidates :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 15, 2009, 05:35:34 AM
Also, the King County Council attempted and failed to fill Constantine's seat. Democrats insisted on State Sen. Joe McDermott; Republicans insisted on retiring Seattle City Councilwoman Jan Drago.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2010509996_newcouncilmember15m.html

I thought non-partisan races were going to make everything better and nicer! ::)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 15, 2009, 11:45:07 AM
Triple post...

Conservative talk show host Lars Larson is apparently going to get into the WA-03 race. Will probably provide some good lulz


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on December 15, 2009, 12:17:16 PM
This electoral system you guys have blows big time.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on December 15, 2009, 02:37:09 PM
I am pretty sure that Denny Heck will get in, he is a family friend. Personally I would love to have Heck as my rep, he is probably the most experienced, confident and connected of the bunch. I am hoping to get a summer internship with the campaign. Though that makes a very large number of democrats.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 15, 2009, 04:10:51 PM
^ His motto can be "Vote Danny! Why the Heck not?"


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 22, 2009, 03:49:34 AM
man.:

http://www.thenewstribune.com/topstory/story/1002887.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 22, 2009, 04:16:23 AM
wtf is going on


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on December 22, 2009, 04:39:27 AM
Why have we had so many odd, violent crimes recently? Argh.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: MaxQue on December 23, 2009, 03:51:35 PM
Why have we had so many odd, violent crimes recently? Argh.

Well, economical crisises raise the number of people who are killing their family and then kill themselves, but I don't see a reason for a raise in attacks on policemen.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on December 23, 2009, 04:50:18 PM
Washington just may get that coveted 10th Congressional seat!

From the Secretary of State's office.

Lucky 13? WA population keeps on growing
by David Ammons | December 23rd, 2009

Washington 13th in censusNew Census projections show that we’re on the move in Washington — people moving in from other states and folks having babies.  In the past decade, we’ve grown by 13 percent and are now the 13th largest state!  And it could be Lucky 13 if we wind up gaining a new congressional seat.

We’ve grown by nearly 100,000 during the last year and — drum roll please — our new statewide population number is nearly 6.7 million. It’s 6,664,195, up over 770,000 from the April, 2000, number of 5,894,143.

A decade ago, we were the 15th most populous state.

Is our population growth enough to pick up a 10th congressional seat? It’s too early to say for sure, especially since the new national Census of 2010 still awaits, to give us the official numbers.  A year ago, the analysts at Election Data Services put us in the small cluster of states that could vie for the 435th and final congressional seat.  Oregon is another possible winner.  Some states are losing population relative to the rest of the country and others are growing faster than most of the rest of the USA.

The rejiggering of the 435 districts among the states, to make representation more equitable, is called “reapportionment.”

Once we know for sure how many districts we have, the US and state constitutions require us to “redistrict,” meaning to redraw our districts (both congressional and legislative) so that they are of equal population.

In Washington, happily, a voter-approved constitutional amendment assigns that duty not to the Legislature, but to a bipartisan citizen commission — two Rs and two Ds are the voting members and they appoint a fifth person to serve as non-voting chair.  Maps must be agreed to by at least three commissioners, and the Legislature’s vote is basically up-or-down.  This process already is under way at the staff level at the state Elections Division, and commissioners will be picked in 2011.  New districts take effect in 2012.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 25, 2009, 01:53:11 AM
I tried re-districting Washington with a 10th seat while being as realistic as possible. This is what I came up with:

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on December 26, 2009, 03:06:02 AM
Looks reasonable for a 7D-3R delegation under this map.  WA-3 turns slightly Republican and WA-8 strongly Democrat - it should be enough to flip parties for these two seats under this map.  WA-8 becomes at least 60% Obama.  Maybe something like this will finally convince Reichert to pack it in.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 26, 2009, 06:42:11 PM
Looks reasonable for a 7D-3R delegation under this map.  WA-3 turns slightly Republican and WA-8 strongly Democrat - it should be enough to flip parties for these two seats under this map.  WA-8 becomes at least 60% Obama.  Maybe something like this will finally convince Reichert to pack it in.

I agree that it makes WA-8 more Dem, but the Democrats clearly refuse to run a real candidate in WA-8 for some unknown reason and Reichert is getting established, so he could still hold on for a while.

If the Democrats could pull off a miracle and win WA-3 in 2010, then they could probably hold onto the seat. If Baird stuck around he could easily win that version of WA-3. But it definitely shifts WA-3 from swing to Lean R.

WA-10 would definitely be Lean D. Not hopeless for the Republicans, but who would they run? They don't have a lot of elected officials in that part of the state.

WA-2 loses Everett and would get a bit more Republican. Maybe shifting the district from Lean D to swing. Larsen would have no trouble winning there but the Democrats would need to be careful if the seat was open. Still, as 2008 Governor and R-71 show, Island and Skagit counties have taken some serious turns to the left in the last few years, and the Republicans would still have to overcome Bellingham.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 04, 2010, 05:36:15 PM
Debolt will not be running to replace Baird. Meanwhile Heck will announce this week if he intends to run or not. Personally I am about 90% sure that he will, you don't loan yourself $100,000 just to explore the waters.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on January 05, 2010, 07:51:02 PM
Debolt will not be running to replace Baird. Meanwhile Heck will announce this week if he intends to run or not. Personally I am about 90% sure that he will, you don't loan yourself $100,000 just to explore the waters.
The folks over at SSP branded DeBolt a "rather nasty piece of work".  Nice.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 06, 2010, 07:38:28 PM
Heck got in; should be a fun race to watch. I'm almost hoping the top-two causes an R vs. R general so it'll spur the Democrats in the Legislature to abolish the damn thing.

Speaking of fun races, this tool is looking like Murray's most likely challenger: http://www.chriswidener.org


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 06, 2010, 07:46:49 PM
Speaking of fun races, this tool is looking like Murray's most likely challenger: http://www.chriswidener.org

Boring issues page, but nothing crazy religious.  Looks a hell of a lot like McGavick Pt. 2.

Is this the businessman from Preston, or the motivational speaker?  Or are they the same guy?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 06, 2010, 07:52:35 PM
Speaking of fun races, this tool is looking like Murray's most likely challenger: http://www.chriswidener.org

Boring issues page, but nothing crazy religious.  Looks a hell of a lot like McGavick Pt. 2.

Is this the businessman from Preston, or the motivational speaker?  Or are they the same guy?

Same dude. Some former NFL player is also apparently thinking about running though (Clint Didier I think is his name). And there's also the usual few assorted crazies milling around. I don't think Brad Klippert will be running this time though as he somehow managed to get elected to the State House in 2008...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 07, 2010, 03:16:21 AM
NFL player declared. Says he has a "Game Plan for Washington". Shoot me now.

http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20100104/BLOG13/100109956/-1/RSS24

http://www.clintdidier.org/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on January 07, 2010, 12:04:44 PM
NFL player declared. Says he has a "Game Plan for Washington". Shoot me now.

http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20100104/BLOG13/100109956/-1/RSS24

http://www.clintdidier.org/

*gags*


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 07, 2010, 08:38:04 PM
NFL player declared. Says he has a "Game Plan for Washington". Shoot me now.

http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20100104/BLOG13/100109956/-1/RSS24

http://www.clintdidier.org/


LOL! It would be pretty funny, at least. And nice to know Murray would start off with a floor about 57% or so, too. ;D

So, any word on the 8th  congressional district? Are the Democrats really going to let this seat go again? Rodney Tom wanted to run in 2008, why doesn't he go for it? :(

The Democrats in my legislative district (5th) seem not-as-crappy-as-usual*. One of them seems to hate taxes a lot and the other is T-Mobile VP and Mallahan supporter. Still, they don't stand a chance given the climate, I suspect.

*In terms of electability, not me liking them necessarily.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on January 08, 2010, 03:55:02 AM
Has anyone seen this shit?  If that is Murray's opponent, I will laugh hysterically for the entire campaign.

http://crosscut.com/2009/12/30/politics-government/19475/ (http://crosscut.com/2009/12/30/politics-government/19475/)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 08, 2010, 03:24:02 PM
Oh yeah, I guess no one's ever mentioned the Hutchison buzz on here. It could happen. It would be hilarious.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 08, 2010, 04:16:54 PM
Heck got in; should be a fun race to watch. I'm almost hoping the top-two causes an R vs. R general so it'll spur the Democrats in the Legislature to abolish the damn thing.

Speaking of fun races, this tool is looking like Murray's most likely challenger: http://www.chriswidener.org

I highly doubt an R V R election will happen, only about 3 of the democrats are serious candidates and I am sure that at least one of them will drop out before the primary. Meanwhile there are still a good number of republicans in the race... It could be very interesting and the sort of thing where the primary is won by someone in the low 20s.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 08, 2010, 04:27:02 PM
A write-in Democrat could be pretty competitive in a R vs. R general, don't ya think? Write-ins usually can't get to 50%, but they can up to 40%, which would be all you need in a 3-way.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 08, 2010, 04:58:46 PM
Heck got in; should be a fun race to watch. I'm almost hoping the top-two causes an R vs. R general so it'll spur the Democrats in the Legislature to abolish the damn thing.

Speaking of fun races, this tool is looking like Murray's most likely challenger: http://www.chriswidener.org

I highly doubt an R V R election will happen, only about 3 of the democrats are serious candidates and I am sure that at least one of them will drop out before the primary. Meanwhile there are still a good number of republicans in the race... It could be very interesting and the sort of thing where the primary is won by someone in the low 20s.

Oh I don't think there's a serious chance of it happening. There's a chance a D vs. D contest could result as well I suppose. I'd just find it amusing either way.

A write-in Democrat could be pretty competitive in a R vs. R general, don't ya think? Write-ins usually can't get to 50%, but they can up to 40%, which would be all you need in a 3-way.

Probably if the word was out that a write-in campaign was going on, but I'm pretty sure Washington State law forbids someone who lost in the primary from being a write-in during the general. We'd have to find some other candidate entirely, get a campaign up and get the word out before ballots start getting received in mid-October (a window of a little less than two months). It'd be challenging.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 08, 2010, 08:18:44 PM
Heck got in; should be a fun race to watch. I'm almost hoping the top-two causes an R vs. R general so it'll spur the Democrats in the Legislature to abolish the damn thing.

Speaking of fun races, this tool is looking like Murray's most likely challenger: http://www.chriswidener.org

I highly doubt an R V R election will happen, only about 3 of the democrats are serious candidates and I am sure that at least one of them will drop out before the primary. Meanwhile there are still a good number of republicans in the race... It could be very interesting and the sort of thing where the primary is won by someone in the low 20s.

Oh I don't think there's a serious chance of it happening. There's a chance a D vs. D contest could result as well I suppose. I'd just find it amusing either way.

A write-in Democrat could be pretty competitive in a R vs. R general, don't ya think? Write-ins usually can't get to 50%, but they can up to 40%, which would be all you need in a 3-way.

Probably if the word was out that a write-in campaign was going on, but I'm pretty sure Washington State law forbids someone who lost in the primary from being a write-in during the general. We'd have to find some other candidate entirely, get a campaign up and get the word out before ballots start getting received in mid-October (a window of a little less than two months). It'd be challenging.

Really? That is an odd law... I feel like being a write-in candidate would not really have any restrictions. Though a democratic write-in candidate in this situation would probably be guaranteed at least 25-30% of the vote (though only with the assumption that there is a notable and public write-in campaign).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 08, 2010, 08:20:15 PM
Heck got in; should be a fun race to watch. I'm almost hoping the top-two causes an R vs. R general so it'll spur the Democrats in the Legislature to abolish the damn thing.

Speaking of fun races, this tool is looking like Murray's most likely challenger: http://www.chriswidener.org

I highly doubt an R V R election will happen, only about 3 of the democrats are serious candidates and I am sure that at least one of them will drop out before the primary. Meanwhile there are still a good number of republicans in the race... It could be very interesting and the sort of thing where the primary is won by someone in the low 20s.

Oh I don't think there's a serious chance of it happening. There's a chance a D vs. D contest could result as well I suppose. I'd just find it amusing either way.

A write-in Democrat could be pretty competitive in a R vs. R general, don't ya think? Write-ins usually can't get to 50%, but they can up to 40%, which would be all you need in a 3-way.

Probably if the word was out that a write-in campaign was going on, but I'm pretty sure Washington State law forbids someone who lost in the primary from being a write-in during the general. We'd have to find some other candidate entirely, get a campaign up and get the word out before ballots start getting received in mid-October (a window of a little less than two months). It'd be challenging.

Really? That is an odd law... I feel like being a write-in candidate would not really have any restrictions. Though a democratic write-in candidate in this situation would probably be guaranteed at least 25-30% of the vote (though only with the assumption that there is a notable and public write-in campaign).

Yeah, most states* have sore loser laws. If you lose a primary you can't run in the general.

*Some don't, like Connecticut...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 08, 2010, 08:21:41 PM
Heck got in; should be a fun race to watch. I'm almost hoping the top-two causes an R vs. R general so it'll spur the Democrats in the Legislature to abolish the damn thing.

Speaking of fun races, this tool is looking like Murray's most likely challenger: http://www.chriswidener.org

I highly doubt an R V R election will happen, only about 3 of the democrats are serious candidates and I am sure that at least one of them will drop out before the primary. Meanwhile there are still a good number of republicans in the race... It could be very interesting and the sort of thing where the primary is won by someone in the low 20s.

Oh I don't think there's a serious chance of it happening. There's a chance a D vs. D contest could result as well I suppose. I'd just find it amusing either way.

A write-in Democrat could be pretty competitive in a R vs. R general, don't ya think? Write-ins usually can't get to 50%, but they can up to 40%, which would be all you need in a 3-way.

Probably if the word was out that a write-in campaign was going on, but I'm pretty sure Washington State law forbids someone who lost in the primary from being a write-in during the general. We'd have to find some other candidate entirely, get a campaign up and get the word out before ballots start getting received in mid-October (a window of a little less than two months). It'd be challenging.

Really? That is an odd law... I feel like being a write-in candidate would not really have any restrictions. Though a democratic write-in candidate in this situation would probably be guaranteed at least 25-30% of the vote (though only with the assumption that there is a notable and public write-in campaign).

Yeah, most states* have sore loser laws. If you lose a primary you can't run in the general.

*Some don't, like Connecticut...

Hmm... in such a situation who would the dems go to? A representative like Williams?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 08, 2010, 08:22:28 PM
... or is he a senator? I always forget, though I wont have to remember for much longer considering he is not running for re-election.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 08, 2010, 08:23:37 PM
... or is he a senator? I always forget, though I wont have to remember for much longer considering he is not running for re-election.

He's in the State House. And I'm honestly not really sure what we'd do in that situation. It's a weird one.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 13, 2010, 04:18:41 PM
Rumor has it that KING5 (through SUSA) is fielding a poll today about state support of legalizing marijuana, and that it will be broadcast on tonight's news.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 13, 2010, 04:39:08 PM
^^^ That bill is being heard right now, and it's scheduled for a vote later today. They usually don't schedule things for a vote unless they plan on passing it, so I'm a little confused...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 13, 2010, 09:32:52 PM
Today's poll is out, and pot legalization is very popular (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bbf73a14-44bd-47e1-ab45-89d98b3998e6):

State lawmakers are considering making marijuana possession legal. Do you think legalizing marijuana is a good idea? Or a bad idea?
Good 56%
Bad 36%

State lawmakers are also considering the possiblitiy of selling marijuana at state-run liquor stores and taxing it. Would it be a good idea? Or a bad idea? To allow state-run liquor stores to sell and tax marijuana to raise revenue for the state?
Good 54%
Bad 43%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 13, 2010, 10:55:35 PM
The state better tax it if they legalize. The income would be very welcome. My question is at what level would pot be legalized? Personally I feel like it should be at the same rate as tobacco...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on January 14, 2010, 02:33:15 AM
Wow that's awesome. Might it actually happen?

The front page story on the latest City Pages interestingly is about movement toward pot legalization. I picked one up but am too lazy to read it tonight.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on January 16, 2010, 10:42:42 PM
Rumor has it that KING5 (through SUSA) is fielding a poll today about state support of legalizing marijuana, and that it will be broadcast on tonight's news.

The results are posted if anyone's wondering:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bbf73a14-44bd-47e1-ab45-89d98b3998e6

Legalization favored by a 20% margin, including 52% of Eastern WA respondents.  That last part is quite surprising.



What's so surprising about it? West Coast Republicans are more Libertarian on the issue than the nationwide party is. I don't know why Republicans generally make such a big fuss about it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 20, 2010, 05:57:26 PM
Here is a quick update on the 3rd CD race:

Democrats Heck and Wallace have both announced their fundraising for the last quarter. Wallace raised $22,894 in the last quarter of 2009 and Heck raised $115,000 (plus $100,000 of his own money loaned to the campaign) in the last quarter, of which Heck's campaign only collected donations for the last eight days of, despite him not announcing until this January.

Meanwhile Republican Castillo had raised $53,874 raised as of Sept. 30 (I don't think he has reported his last quarter numbers yet).

http://www.theolympian.com/politicsblog/story/1103349.html


----
Let the money flow and the race begin!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 20, 2010, 06:12:36 PM
Here is a quick update on the 3rd CD race:

Democrats Heck and Wallace have both announced their fundraising for the last quarter. Wallace raised $22,894 in the last quarter of 2009 and Heck raised $115,000 (plus $100,000 of his own money loaned to the campaign) in the last quarter, of which Heck's campaign only collected donations for the last eight days of, despite him not announcing until this January.

Meanwhile Republican Castillo had raised $53,874 raised as of Sept. 30 (I don't think he has reported his last quarter numbers yet).

http://www.theolympian.com/politicsblog/story/1103349.html


----
Let the money flow and the race begin!

This race has been kind of hard to follow.

Are Heck and Wallace the only major Democrats running? I thought there was a third.

Does Castillo pose any real challenge to Herrera, or is Herrera basically a lock for the GOP side?

The primary could produce an interesting map. Both sides appear to be Thurston vs. Clark.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 20, 2010, 06:41:54 PM
State House committee kills pot legalization bill (http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/archives/191698.asp)

Bummer.

Any chance the initiative will get enough signatures?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 20, 2010, 11:30:14 PM
Here is a quick update on the 3rd CD race:

Democrats Heck and Wallace have both announced their fundraising for the last quarter. Wallace raised $22,894 in the last quarter of 2009 and Heck raised $115,000 (plus $100,000 of his own money loaned to the campaign) in the last quarter, of which Heck's campaign only collected donations for the last eight days of, despite him not announcing until this January.

Meanwhile Republican Castillo had raised $53,874 raised as of Sept. 30 (I don't think he has reported his last quarter numbers yet).

http://www.theolympian.com/politicsblog/story/1103349.html


----
Let the money flow and the race begin!

This race has been kind of hard to follow.

Are Heck and Wallace the only major Democrats running? I thought there was a third.

Does Castillo pose any real challenge to Herrera, or is Herrera basically a lock for the GOP side?

The primary could produce an interesting map. Both sides appear to be Thurston vs. Clark.

Craig Pridemore, a liberal State Senator from Vancouver, will also be a major player on the Democratic side.

DeBolt took the interesting step of endorsing Castillo over Herrera, which indicates to me that she's by no means a lock.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 20, 2010, 11:56:19 PM
Here is a quick update on the 3rd CD race:

Democrats Heck and Wallace have both announced their fundraising for the last quarter. Wallace raised $22,894 in the last quarter of 2009 and Heck raised $115,000 (plus $100,000 of his own money loaned to the campaign) in the last quarter, of which Heck's campaign only collected donations for the last eight days of, despite him not announcing until this January.

Meanwhile Republican Castillo had raised $53,874 raised as of Sept. 30 (I don't think he has reported his last quarter numbers yet).

http://www.theolympian.com/politicsblog/story/1103349.html


----
Let the money flow and the race begin!

This race has been kind of hard to follow.

Are Heck and Wallace the only major Democrats running? I thought there was a third.

Does Castillo pose any real challenge to Herrera, or is Herrera basically a lock for the GOP side?

The primary could produce an interesting map. Both sides appear to be Thurston vs. Clark.

Craig Pridemore, a liberal State Senator from Vancouver, will also be a major player on the Democratic side.

DeBolt took the interesting step of endorsing Castillo over Herrera, which indicates to me that she's by no means a lock.

Castillo versus Wallace would be best geographically, I think.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 21, 2010, 06:18:31 PM
Washington bill in the works would recognize gay marriages performed in other states:

http://dlr.leg.wa.gov/billsummary/default.aspx?Bill=2482&year=2009

I think this is the right kind of incremental approach -- basically set it up so not having gay marriage is ridiculous, because after all we pretty much have it anyway.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on January 22, 2010, 01:00:06 AM
Washington bill in the works would recognize gay marriages performed in other states:

http://dlr.leg.wa.gov/billsummary/default.aspx?Bill=2482&year=2009

I think this is the right kind of incremental approach -- basically set it up so not having gay marriage is ridiculous, because after all we pretty much have it anyway.

I think WA will be the first state to have gay marriage here in the West permanently. This approach is better than taking it to the courts.

Does anyone else find it interesting that the two main GOP candidates for WA-3 are Hispanic?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 22, 2010, 05:43:49 PM
Washington bill in the works would recognize gay marriages performed in other states:

http://dlr.leg.wa.gov/billsummary/default.aspx?Bill=2482&year=2009

I think this is the right kind of incremental approach -- basically set it up so not having gay marriage is ridiculous, because after all we pretty much have it anyway.

I think WA will be the first state to have gay marriage here in the West permanently. This approach is better than taking it to the courts.

Does anyone else find it interesting that the two main GOP candidates for WA-3 are Hispanic?

Is Herrera hispanic?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 29, 2010, 12:35:18 PM
http://www.publicbroadcasting.net/kplu/news.newsmain/article/1/0/1605804/KPLU.Local.News/Washington.Gets.$590M.To.Improve.Seattle.To.Portland.Rail.Service

Washington and Oregon received a total of $598 million to help build faster rail in the Seattle-Portland-Vancouver corridor. Washington received $590 of that money (take that Oregon!).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 29, 2010, 07:42:54 PM
GOP caucus bans state Sen. Pam Roach, tells her to get anger counseling (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2010931672_webroach30.html)

LOL!!!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 29, 2010, 08:22:39 PM
GOP caucus bans state Sen. Pam Roach, tells her to get anger counseling (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2010931672_webroach30.html)

LOL!!!

hahahaha x500


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on January 30, 2010, 06:56:33 PM
http://www.publicbroadcasting.net/kplu/news.newsmain/article/1/0/1605804/KPLU.Local.News/Washington.Gets.$590M.To.Improve.Seattle.To.Portland.Rail.Service

Washington and Oregon received a total of $598 million to help build faster rail in the Seattle-Portland-Vancouver corridor. Washington received $590 of that money (take that Oregon!).

I suspect the federal funding Washington received is largely a result of Sen. Murray's influence as a senior member of the Senate Appropriations Committee and her chairmanship of the Appropriations Subcommittee on Transportation.   As her reelection approaches, there may be more stories like this.  Our senator may fly under the radar, but she actually is very influential.

As for the story about state Sen. Roach, did someone move her roses again?



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Verily on January 30, 2010, 07:00:32 PM
http://www.publicbroadcasting.net/kplu/news.newsmain/article/1/0/1605804/KPLU.Local.News/Washington.Gets.$590M.To.Improve.Seattle.To.Portland.Rail.Service

Washington and Oregon received a total of $598 million to help build faster rail in the Seattle-Portland-Vancouver corridor. Washington received $590 of that money (take that Oregon!).

Well, a railroad from Seattle to Portland would be about 97% in Washington, so it makes sense.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on January 30, 2010, 07:04:08 PM
http://www.publicbroadcasting.net/kplu/news.newsmain/article/1/0/1605804/KPLU.Local.News/Washington.Gets.$590M.To.Improve.Seattle.To.Portland.Rail.Service

Washington and Oregon received a total of $598 million to help build faster rail in the Seattle-Portland-Vancouver corridor. Washington received $590 of that money (take that Oregon!).

I suspect the federal funding Washington received is largely a result of Sen. Murray's influence as a senior member of the Senate Appropriations Committee and her chairmanship of the Appropriations Subcommittee on Transportation.   As her reelection approaches, there may be more stories like this.  Our senator may fly under the radar, but she actually is very influential.

Isn't she the third-ranking member of the Senate Democratic leadership?



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on January 30, 2010, 07:23:18 PM
http://www.publicbroadcasting.net/kplu/news.newsmain/article/1/0/1605804/KPLU.Local.News/Washington.Gets.$590M.To.Improve.Seattle.To.Portland.Rail.Service

Washington and Oregon received a total of $598 million to help build faster rail in the Seattle-Portland-Vancouver corridor. Washington received $590 of that money (take that Oregon!).

I suspect the federal funding Washington received is largely a result of Sen. Murray's influence as a senior member of the Senate Appropriations Committee and her chairmanship of the Appropriations Subcommittee on Transportation.   As her reelection approaches, there may be more stories like this.  Our senator may fly under the radar, but she actually is very influential.

Isn't she the third-ranking member of the Senate Democratic leadership?

Sen. Murray is the Conference Secretary, which I believe is the 4th ranking position behind Reid, Durbin (Assistant Majority Leader) and Schumer (Vice-Chair of the Caucus). 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Conference_Secretary_of_the_United_States_Senate (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Conference_Secretary_of_the_United_States_Senate)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 31, 2010, 11:32:44 PM
GOP caucus bans state Sen. Pam Roach, tells her to get anger counseling (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2010931672_webroach30.html)

LOL!!!

hahahaha x500

I remember as a senate page we were warned about crossing Roach, she is one terrifying woman. Why is she still holding office?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 31, 2010, 11:48:53 PM
GOP caucus bans state Sen. Pam Roach, tells her to get anger counseling (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2010931672_webroach30.html)

LOL!!!

hahahaha x500

I remember as a senate page we were warned about crossing Roach, she is one terrifying woman. Why is she still holding office?

In addition to the natural Republican tilt of her district (Obama did narrowly win it but Rossi got 55%), her 2006 opponent was just as crazy as her. So far our only candidate against her is the guy that lost to her son last year with 40% of the vote, so I think we may be looking at another four years of Pam.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 01, 2010, 04:17:10 PM
Yeah, Roach will probably win. If the Democrats could find a decent candidate then I think it could be a possible bright spot in an otherwise dark year. It would be hard for Roach to overcome the recent news even with a favorable national climate in such a case, I think. But, since I don't think such an opponent will surface, she should win. Oh well!

My home district (5th LD) actually has two Democrats running for one seat now! Wow! They didn't even run one in 2006. :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 01, 2010, 09:06:00 PM
The Washington State Democratic party has officially endorsed standing no chance whatsoever in WA-8.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on February 01, 2010, 09:31:10 PM
The Washington State Democratic party has officially endorsed standing no chance whatsoever in WA-8.

I am assuming this means that we are trying to help the Burner-clone that is running there. Oh well...

As long as we hold the democratic seats I will be happy (the 3rd should be a hard-fought contest though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 03, 2010, 01:21:26 AM
Time to change the thread title.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 03, 2010, 10:57:53 AM

Done.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on February 03, 2010, 11:04:41 AM

Only if it's an income tax...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on February 03, 2010, 07:38:57 PM

Agreed, though likelihood of that happening: 0%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on February 04, 2010, 02:15:15 PM
Any chance of this (http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20100204/NEWS01/702049885&news01ad=1#Bill.would.suspend.limits.on.tax.hikes) passing?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 04, 2010, 03:44:19 PM

A "fair tax" would probably be our best hope in Washington--a flat income tax that would replace the sales tax. I don't think a progressive income tax would ever pass, but a flat income tax that got rid of the sales tax may be an acceptable compromise that would certainly be preferable to our current system.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on February 04, 2010, 05:28:19 PM

A "fair tax" would probably be our best hope in Washington--a flat income tax that would replace the sales tax. I don't think a progressive income tax would ever pass, but a flat income tax that got rid of the sales tax may be an acceptable compromise that would certainly be preferable to our current system.

Really I personally think that a progressive tax would have a better chance should we ever actually replace the sales tax. A flat tax would be a horrible idea (though still better than the regressive sales tax).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 06, 2010, 03:22:17 AM
Say what you will about The Stranger, but this is a helpful summary of the fates of recent bills.

http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2010/02/05/bills-on-olympia-what-died-what-lived#more

***

Also, the expansion of medical marijuana law to allow other medical specialists (like physician assistants) to prescribe it passed with 37 Ayes and 11 Nays in the State Senate.  The votes:

Republicans
Yes (9): Becker [Eatonville], Brandland [Bellingham], Carrell [Lakewood], Delvin [Richland], Hewitt [Walla Walla], King [Yakima], McCaslin [Spokane Valley], Parlette [Wenatchee], Pflug [Maple Valley].

No (8): Benton [Vancouver], Honeyford [Sunnyside], Morton [Kettle Falls], Roach [Auburn], Schoesler [Ritzville], Stevens [Arlington], Swecker [Rochester], Zarelli [Ridgefield].

Excused (1): Holmquist [Moses Lake].

Democrats
Yes (28): All except below.

No (3): Hargrove [Hoquiam], Haugen [Camano Island], Sheldon [Shelton].

***

Haugen's vote is a little perplexing.  She supports some decriminalization and even got penalized for donating to a Rick Steves event that was mostly about legalization.  Maybe she's playing to her district's swing voters.  She's probably in trouble, and maybe at 70 she wants a last term.

On the other hand, did anyone ever expect Curtis King (R-Yakima) -- the business dude who defeated the quite-conservative Jim Clements in an insurgent primary campaign -- to be this liberal on social issues?  It's not just his votes.  The strongest thing against the R-71 bill he would say was to reject arguments against it with "this doesn't need to be about gay marriage," and he also made a comment implying (sort of) that he supports outright marijuana legalization.  Weird.  Anyone know much about him?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on February 06, 2010, 05:39:34 AM
Say what you will about The Stranger, but this is a helpful summary of the fates of recent bills.

http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2010/02/05/bills-on-olympia-what-died-what-lived#more

***

Also, the expansion of medical marijuana law to allow other medical specialists (like physician assistants) to prescribe it passed with 37 Ayes and 11 Nays in the State Senate.  The votes:

Republicans
Yes (9): Becker [Eatonville], Brandland [Bellingham], Carrell [Lakewood], Delvin [Richland], Hewitt [Walla Walla], King [Yakima], McCaslin [Spokane Valley], Parlette [Wenatchee], Pflug [Maple Valley].

No (8): Benton [Vancouver], Honeyford [Sunnyside], Morton [Kettle Falls], Roach [Auburn], Schoesler [Ritzville], Stevens [Arlington], Swecker [Rochester], Zarelli [Ridgefield].

Excused (1): Holmquist [Moses Lake].
I'm really surprised by the Yes vote from Becker (R-Eatonville).   I'm of the impression she is a hard right conservative.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on February 06, 2010, 11:31:41 AM
Why does Washington have such a right wing tax system?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 06, 2010, 11:38:58 AM

In 1932 the Supreme Court decided that the State Constitution forbade a progressive income tax and as such passing one would require massive support in the Legislature and the population as a whole. As time went on even a flat income tax became a political third rail that no one would touch. There's consistently been a liberal segment of the population and political class that has favored massively reforming the whole system, but they've never been able to get anywhere thanks to the moderate Democrats consistently allying with the Republicans on the issue.

In other words, historical factors and the unwillingness of Democrats in the Legislature to grow a pair.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 08, 2010, 12:50:48 AM
And Murray finally gets a somewhat* serious opponent, State Sen. Benton (R-Vancouver): http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2011011450_benton08m.html

*and by that I mean the only one who is actually an office holder. I don't think Murray will have any trouble taking down this tea bagger nut.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 08, 2010, 06:30:21 PM
Benton's certainly more respectable than any of the others, but as bgwah said she shouldn't have any issues taking him down. FWIW in my interactions with him Benton's always struck me as a little dim. A little odd he didn't got for the WA-03 race, especially considering he tried back in 1998.

On an unrelated note, Murtha's death means Norm Dicks is now the second ranking Democrat on the Appropriations Committee and in line to head the Defense subcommittee. Obviously Murtha's death is a sad event, but the reality is it's rather oportune for us.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 08, 2010, 10:05:48 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/opinion/2011018519_dionne09.html?prmid=op_ed

lol I hope he isn't the Democratic candidate for Governor in 2012.

I actually like one of the silly right-wing comments for once: The funny thing about this story....which house was this Jay? The one in your old E. Washington district you got booted from or your new district?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 09, 2010, 11:12:35 PM
I'm pleasantly surprised to see that all the school levies are passing. I expected widespread defeat in the current political climate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on February 09, 2010, 11:33:29 PM
I'm pleasantly surprised to see that all the school levies are passing. I expected widespread defeat in the current political climate.

Agreed. Are there any school levies failing? All of them in my area are passing. Perhaps Washingtonians are a bit smarter than the "current political climate".


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 09, 2010, 11:42:25 PM
I'm pleasantly surprised to see that all the school levies are passing. I expected widespread defeat in the current political climate.

Agreed. Are there any school levies failing? All of them in my area are passing. Perhaps Washingtonians are a bit smarter than the "current political climate".

Only one I can find failing is in Federal Way (the margin is within one percent and thus subject to change though).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 10, 2010, 01:41:21 AM
I'm pleasantly surprised to see that all the school levies are passing. I expected widespread defeat in the current political climate.

I don't expect to see any right-wing climate move across Washington this time, but I guess I could be wrong.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on February 10, 2010, 02:09:10 AM
Every levy in my county passed. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 10, 2010, 09:12:39 PM
Federal Way is now narrowly passing. Contrary to recent trends - at least from what I've noticed in Pierce - the poll votes and the after E-day absentees were mostly more in favor of the levies than the pre-E-day absentees.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on February 10, 2010, 09:20:56 PM
On an unrelated note, Murtha's death means Norm Dicks is now the second ranking Democrat on the Appropriations Committee and in line to head the Defense subcommittee. Obviously Murtha's death is a sad event, but the reality is it's rather opportune for us.

Defense Industry Analysts seem to think Boeing is now likely to win the Air Force tanker contract:

Quote
LYNNWOOD — Three out of three analysts agree: The Boeing Co. likely will land the U.S. Air Force tanker contract.

“Boeing will get the first round,” said Michel Merluzeau, managing partner with G2 Solutions. Boeing’s “767 is going to be the winner of a competition.”

Merluzeau spoke Tuesday at the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance annual conference in Lynnwood. Analysts Richard Aboulafia, with the Teal Group, and Scott Hamilton, with Issaquah-based Leeham Co., also agreed that Boeing is poised to win the roughly $35 billion tanker contest. Doing so would secure Boeing jobs on the 767 line here in Everett for years into the future.

Boeing is competing against duo Northrop Grumman and EADS for the contract to replace the Air Force’s aging KC-135 aerial refueling tanker fleet. The Air Force said Monday that it won’t release its final requirements until Feb. 23 at the earliest. This is the Air Force’s third try at awarding the contract, and it’s the first in a series of three competitions the Pentagon plans to hold.

Boeing’s chances at winning the tanker contract could get a significant boost if Washington’s Rep. Norm Dicks succeeds Rep. John Murtha, D-Pa., as chairman of a powerful House appropriations defense subcommittee. Murtha, who died Monday, had been a strong supporter of splitting the Air Force contract between Boeing and Northrop.

Murtha’s death “was the tipping point,” the Teal Group’s Aboulafia said. “This is ... a slam dunk” for Boeing.
http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20100210/BIZ/702109877 (http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20100210/BIZ/702109877)

Quote
Loren Thompson, defense analyst with the Virginia-based Lexington Institute, said he had known Dicks for two decades, and considered him a thoughtful and reasonable person.

"I don't think that he reflexively sides with Boeing, but if Boeing wants to do something that he thinks has merit, and there are positive consequences for the people in his district, then he will definitely listen more closely," Thompson said.
http://in.news.yahoo.com/137/20100210/371/tbs-boeing-seen-aided-by-ties-to-key-u-s.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 11, 2010, 02:24:26 AM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2011039089_pendoreille11m.html

lol Republicans.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 14, 2010, 01:03:36 AM
So, I'm currently on the fence about getting involved in the Sensible Washington (I-1068) campaign for marijuana legalization.  All things considered, R-71 was organizationally boring.  Gays are a pretty establishment voting bloc by this point, and other than a few bar crawls, there wasn't much in the way of outreach to weird voters.  The grassroots people were also basically affluent society people, too.

On the other hand, I-1068 involvement so far has been exactly what I feared.  They can't take donations yet, because of concern over pro-pot funds being frozen (it's happened before.)  And one of the (self-appointed) local organizers is an anarchist who isn't registered to vote.  But fortunately I won't need to worry that he has some philosophical opposition to voter registration, because this is all explained by finding his 2006 conviction for felony vehicular assault.

Basically, I-1068 is shaping up for all my fears: The "grassroots" (snicker) are less composed, the base for GOTV/signature-collecting is less motivated and "with it," there's less money...basically signature-collecting will be a nightmare, and advertising won't be much better, if they even manage to collect enough signatures.  Which is doubtful.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 14, 2010, 02:28:21 PM
So, I'm currently on the fence about getting involved in the Sensible Washington (I-1068) campaign for marijuana legalization.  All things considered, R-71 was organizationally boring.  Gays are a pretty establishment voting bloc by this point, and other than a few bar crawls, there wasn't much in the way of outreach to weird voters.  The grassroots people were also basically affluent society people, too.

On the other hand, I-1068 involvement so far has been exactly what I feared.  They can't take donations yet, because of concern over pro-pot funds being frozen (it's happened before.)  And one of the (self-appointed) local organizers is an anarchist who isn't registered to vote.  But fortunately I won't need to worry that he has some philosophical opposition to voter registration, because this is all explained by finding his 2006 conviction for felony vehicular assault.

Basically, I-1068 is shaping up for all my fears: The "grassroots" (snicker) are less composed, the base for GOTV/signature-collecting is less motivated and "with it," there's less money...basically signature-collecting will be a nightmare, and advertising won't be much better, if they even manage to collect enough signatures.  Which is doubtful.

I don't see I-1068 getting on the ballot, honestly...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on February 14, 2010, 07:43:41 PM
So, I'm currently on the fence about getting involved in the Sensible Washington (I-1068) campaign for marijuana legalization.  All things considered, R-71 was organizationally boring.  Gays are a pretty establishment voting bloc by this point, and other than a few bar crawls, there wasn't much in the way of outreach to weird voters.  The grassroots people were also basically affluent society people, too.

On the other hand, I-1068 involvement so far has been exactly what I feared.  They can't take donations yet, because of concern over pro-pot funds being frozen (it's happened before.)  And one of the (self-appointed) local organizers is an anarchist who isn't registered to vote.  But fortunately I won't need to worry that he has some philosophical opposition to voter registration, because this is all explained by finding his 2006 conviction for felony vehicular assault.

Basically, I-1068 is shaping up for all my fears: The "grassroots" (snicker) are less composed, the base for GOTV/signature-collecting is less motivated and "with it," there's less money...basically signature-collecting will be a nightmare, and advertising won't be much better, if they even manage to collect enough signatures.  Which is doubtful.

I don't see I-1068 getting on the ballot, honestly...

Agreed. Even if it would pass (though I have strong doubts) the movement is likely not organized enough to get things done. Truthfully though pot is so widespread in this state that almost no one really minds and it isn't really fought against that hard by authorities.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 15, 2010, 08:06:04 PM
The pro-tax increase rally in Olympia today drew twice as many people as the anti-tax increase teabagging/Paulist types (6000 vs. 3000). Thank God for union organization.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on February 17, 2010, 12:31:43 PM
Front page article yesterday about extremist tea party groups. Guess where nearly all of them were based? Spokane/Northern Idaho! It seems the area may be trending back towards having  more crazies just like in the good 'ole days. My favorite was the nice old woman who advocated for a new civil war should elections "not go the right way".

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/16/us/politics/16teaparty.html?scp=1&sq=Lighting%20a%20fuse%20for%20rebellion&st=cse

Why did I choose to live here?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 17, 2010, 10:53:34 PM
Also, from that article:

Most of the people there had paid only passing attention to national politics in years past. “I voted twice and I failed political science twice,” said Darin Stevens, leader of the Spokane 9/12 Project.

How dumb do you have to be to fail political science twice? Wow.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on February 18, 2010, 03:45:11 PM
I almost want to go to a few of their meetings and after a good amount of time shred apart their arguments. Too bad they would never allow any sort of intellectual conversation and also since many of them bring guns to the meetings I would actually be terrified that violence would erupt as a result of someone challenging their ideas.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 18, 2010, 04:56:37 PM
Tea Party speaker wants to hang Murray (http://www.seattlepi.com/local/6420ap_wa_tea_party_hang_murray.html)

lolz...?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on February 18, 2010, 05:01:34 PM
This thread is reaching PA-13 territory.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 18, 2010, 11:11:42 PM
The House and Senate have voted to suspend I-960 which means a tax package is in the works. I don't know why they didn't do this last year when people would've had a chance to forget about it, but whatever.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on February 18, 2010, 11:35:47 PM
Tea Party speaker wants to hang Murray (http://www.seattlepi.com/local/6420ap_wa_tea_party_hang_murray.html)

lolz...?

Did you watch the tv news story? It almost seemed like they were trying to portray them in a positive light. Truly disgusting in my opinion (in regards to calling for someone to be hung).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on February 19, 2010, 02:17:18 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQYlLQWvEr0


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 20, 2010, 12:33:32 AM
The teabaggers are as genuinely fascist as anything we've got in America.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 21, 2010, 06:18:12 AM
Article on Pam Roach: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2011140963_roach21m.html



And every once in a while, I remember why I read the comments...


Among the laws Roach has sponsored: Bestiality: Approved in 2006. Made sex with animals a crime."

Of course this was AFTER she'd had kids...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on February 21, 2010, 03:46:55 PM
So Washington didn't have a bestiality law prior to that?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on February 21, 2010, 04:09:03 PM
So Washington didn't have a bestiality law prior to that?

I don't think so. The bestiality law was created because a man in Roach's district (in Enumclaw) died after having sex with a horse.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on February 22, 2010, 12:32:19 AM
Olympia's mayor pro tem has been arrested for selling pot:

http://www.seattlepi.com/local/415615_olympia.html?source=mypi

http://www.theolympian.com/2010/02/21/1145973/supporters-speak-for-hyer.html

Being a native I find this quite funny, especially after reading some of the statements from the city council in the above article which basically amount to: so what?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on February 22, 2010, 01:15:26 PM
Quote
David Myhre, who was out for a walk Saturday near Hyer’s house on Legion Way, said marijuana shouldn’t be the one thing that puts Hyer’s political future in jeopardy.

Myhre also said he voted for Tony Sermonti in the November election, the man who lost to Hyer.


“If it was heroin, it might be a different conversation,” Myhre said.

That's pretty awesome. I can't see that type of attitude being widespread even like 10-15 years ago.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 22, 2010, 02:02:06 PM
Quote
David Myhre, who was out for a walk Saturday near Hyer’s house on Legion Way, said marijuana shouldn’t be the one thing that puts Hyer’s political future in jeopardy.

Myhre also said he voted for Tony Sermonti in the November election, the man who lost to Hyer.


“If it was heroin, it might be a different conversation,” Myhre said.

That's pretty awesome. I can't see that type of attitude being widespread even like 10-15 years ago.

It probably was in Olympia.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 23, 2010, 11:01:23 PM
So Wallace dropped out...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on February 24, 2010, 11:57:16 AM

I would love to see a poll of the primary race on both sides...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 04, 2010, 05:58:12 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2011259101_incometax05m.html

So much for your gubernatorial ambitions, Lisa...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on March 04, 2010, 11:05:58 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2011259101_incometax05m.html

So much for your gubernatorial ambitions, Lisa...

Meh, its kinda sad that it hurts her so much. Income taxes are a much better way of doing things, especially progressive taxes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on March 05, 2010, 02:03:09 AM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2011259101_incometax05m.html

So much for your gubernatorial ambitions, Lisa...

Meh, its kinda sad that it hurts her so much. Income taxes are a much better way of doing things, especially progressive taxes.

Yeah, I agree. :( Hopefully the referendum will reach the ballot and be approved though. If they go ahead with coupling the income tax with a sales tax reduction, it just might work. (Will it reach the ballot though? I've been listening to AM570 and 770 far too much today to get a really accurate picture...)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 09, 2010, 12:26:44 AM
Here is something I'm working on. It shows the top Asian group by census tract in Seattle! I plan on doing the Eastside next, and hopefully all of King County eventually. I do have a shaded version but it's messy and I will post it later. Here is what I have so far... Can you guess which ethnicity is which color based on the map?? The key is after the (large) picture:

()

Red = Chinese
Green = Japanese
Blue = Vietnamese
Yellow = Filipino
Orange = Korean
Cambodian = Purple

Beacon Hill and SE Seattle are about what we would expect, though the Cambodian tract is a surprise to me. Japanese dominate rich white neighborhoods, as well as ultraliberal white neighborhoods. Filipinos are #1 in Ballard... And Chinese dominate the NE part of the city. Interesting...

No Indians--there will definitely be some on the Eastside, though. Much of the Eastside will probably just be India vs. China but we'll have to see. South Bellevue/Newcastle will probably have a lot of Japanese. I also want to say there will be a Korean area in South Bellevue...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on March 15, 2010, 12:48:21 AM
And Baird endorses (drum roll):

Denny Heck!

http://www.columbian.com/news/2010/mar/13/baird-endorses-heck-for-3rd-district/

I feel like at this point there really are only four real candidates left. Heck, Pridemore, Herrera and Castillo. Anyone know if any polls have been done of the race? I have been dying to get my hands on some hard numbers...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 15, 2010, 12:59:36 AM
The Democratic side is quickly turning into establishment, old-school Democrats (Heck) vs. progressive, netroots, Obama-brought-in Democrats (Pridemore).

It's also clear they're trying to knock Pridemore out of the primary before the filing deadline.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on March 15, 2010, 07:23:36 PM
The Democratic side is quickly turning into establishment, old-school Democrats (Heck) vs. progressive, netroots, Obama-brought-in Democrats (Pridemore).

It's also clear they're trying to knock Pridemore out of the primary before the filing deadline.
Hopefully the democrats will be able to get a better slit than the democrats and lead to a D v D scenario. That would be amazing.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 16, 2010, 12:13:17 AM
I'm thinking Heck will probably win the primary, but I'm not really basing than on any facts... ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on March 22, 2010, 08:57:59 PM
I would like to thank McKenna for having made my choice in the 2012 gubernatorial election that much easier:

McKenna: New health care law violates state's rights (http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/archives/198961.asp)

Washington Attorney General Rob McKenna on Monday said he would fight to repeal the new, comprehensive national health care measure Democrats passed Sunday night.

"I believe this new federal health care measure unconstitutionally imposes new requirements on our state and on its citizens. This unprecedented federal mandate, requiring all Washingtonians to purchase health insurance, violates the Commerce Clause and the 10th amendment of the US Constitution," McKenna said in a statement. "I'm concerned that the measure unconstitutionally requires all Washingtonians to purchase health insurance and places an extraordinary burden on our state budget by requiring Washington to expand its Medicaid eligibility standards in violation of our state's rights guaranteed under the10th amendment."

McKenna and other Republican attorneys general from Florida, South Carolina, Alabama, Nebraska, Texas, Pennsylvania, Utah, North Dakota, and South Dakota say they'll file a lawsuit against the federal government. President Barack Obama is expected to sign the new law soon.

Gov. Chris Gregoire, a Democrat who was previously attorney general, says she opposes McKenna's move and said she'd file her own legal brief against McKenna.

"I totally oppose what he's doing," the governor told reporters.

"He doesn't represent the people of Washington who would get assistance so they could afford quality health insurance. He doesn't represent the thousands of small businesses that would benefit from tax credits to provide coverage for their employees. He doesn't represent the thousands who will no longer be denied coverage because of a pre-existing condition. He doesn't represent the half million young people in our state who would be covered under their parents plan until they are 26. He doesn't represent our state's Medicare recipients. He doesn't represent the taxpayers of Washington."

From a political standpoint, McKenna's move is interesting. He is widely considered the presumptive GOP nominee for governor in 2012 and many believe the Democrats would have a tough time finding someone who could beat him. By joining the Republican fight against health care reform he can shore up his support on the right. However he also risks alienating Democrats and moderates he's going to need to win over to make it to the governor's mansion.
-------------------------------------------

So how do you think this impacts his chances at becoming the next governor of Washington state?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 22, 2010, 09:04:57 PM
Wow, that's funny, I was just thinking McKenna would probably be one of the few Republican AGs that wouldn't jump on that bandwagon, since he wants to be Governor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 22, 2010, 09:31:57 PM
Wow, that's funny, I was just thinking McKenna would probably be one of the few Republican AGs that wouldn't jump on that bandwagon, since he wants to be Governor.

The Washington GOP is full of teabagging types. He needs their support and they would've bugged him about this until he eventually gave in anyways. I think it was actually a smart move on his part.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on March 22, 2010, 09:32:27 PM
Sad. I liked McKenna. :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 23, 2010, 02:34:13 AM
Ugh.

First pot, now this. It's reassuring to know once again that I made the right choice not voting for this piece of garbage.

*evil look at Alcon* >:(




I'm kind of happy about this overall, though. He just cut his chances of ever becoming Governor in half (if not more!).

You just went from winning King County in 2008 to not even being able to crack 40%, Robby.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on March 23, 2010, 03:24:39 PM
So how do you think this impacts his chances at becoming the next governor of Washington state?

It impacts his chances negatively and suggests McKenna is more concerned about the GOP primary than I thought.  Is Rossi seriously considering running again?

The Democratic base, which previously had been ambivalent about the AG, is going to come out blasting.  He has just stepped on one of the party's core issues.  bgwah is correct -- McKenna now has no chance in King County.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on March 23, 2010, 08:24:44 PM
So how do you think this impacts his chances at becoming the next governor of Washington state?

It impacts his chances negatively and suggests McKenna is more concerned about the GOP primary than I thought.  Is Rossi seriously considering running again?

The Democratic base, which previously had been ambivalent about the AG, is going to come out blasting.  He has just stepped on one of the party's core issues.  bgwah is correct -- McKenna now has no chance in King County.

...or thurston, or whatcom, or San Juan. Basically this is the sort of thing that will really rile up the left and make the center question him. Though really it does help him alot in terms of the primary (though remember people we have the jungle primary so everyone votes, making the tea party much less powerful.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on March 23, 2010, 09:37:36 PM
Ugh.

First pot, now this. It's reassuring to know once again that I made the right choice not voting for this piece of garbage.

*evil look at Alcon* >:(




I'm kind of happy about this overall, though. He just cut his chances of ever becoming Governor in half (if not more!).

You just went from winning King County in 2008 to not even being able to crack 40%, Robby.

What'd he do about pot?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 23, 2010, 10:01:47 PM
I still think a lot of you aren't looking at this in the right way. While I agree this doesn't help McKenna with Democrats or Independents, I don't think he really had a choice. He was going to develop a major issue with his base if he didn't get on board and he didn't want to have to deal with that heading into a statewide race. You can see a similar situation with Corbett in Pennsylvania and McCollum in Florida. It was a lose-lose and chose the better option.

I also don't think he ever had a chance at winning King County in the first place (gubernatorial and down-ballot statewide races are entirely different beasts) but that's a separate issue.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 23, 2010, 10:07:24 PM
I still think a lot of you aren't looking at this in the right way. While I agree this doesn't help McKenna with Democrats or Independents, I don't think he really had a choice. He was going to develop a major issue with his base if he didn't get on board and he didn't want to have to deal with that heading into a statewide race. You can see a similar situation with Corbett in Pennsylvania and McCollum in Florida. It was a lose-lose and chose the better option.

I also don't think he ever had a chance at winning King County in the first place (gubernatorial and down-ballot statewide races are entirely different beasts) but that's a separate issue.

Hence my "he won't be able to crack 40%" comment! :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 23, 2010, 11:13:16 PM
I still think a lot of you aren't looking at this in the right way. While I agree this doesn't help McKenna with Democrats or Independents, I don't think he really had a choice. He was going to develop a major issue with his base if he didn't get on board and he didn't want to have to deal with that heading into a statewide race. You can see a similar situation with Corbett in Pennsylvania and McCollum in Florida. It was a lose-lose and chose the better option.

I also don't think he ever had a chance at winning King County in the first place (gubernatorial and down-ballot statewide races are entirely different beasts) but that's a separate issue.

Hence my "he won't be able to crack 40%" comment! :)

Ah, I missed the "in 2008" bit. My bad.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on March 24, 2010, 12:38:49 AM
Video of Gov. Gregoire discussing AG McKenna's lawsuit:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5Ng5lYw3kE (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5Ng5lYw3kE)

I also don't think he ever had a chance at winning King County in the first place (gubernatorial and down-ballot statewide races are entirely different beasts) but that's a separate issue.

I don't think he had a chance of winning in King County either, but I could have seen him doing decently for a Republican -- around 45%.  That certainly won't happen now.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 29, 2010, 07:16:28 AM
Dem field in WA-03 is down to three:

http://www.columbian.com/news/2010/mar/25/independent-rodriguez-salazar-withdraws-from-3rd-d/

So I take it with the top-two primary system, there's a lot of pressure to keep the number of legitimate party candidates down to two now (so there's the guarantee that at least one of them will move on to the general)?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on March 30, 2010, 11:46:53 AM
Dem field in WA-03 is down to three:

http://www.columbian.com/news/2010/mar/25/independent-rodriguez-salazar-withdraws-from-3rd-d/

So I take it with the top-two primary system, there's a lot of pressure to keep the number of legitimate party candidates down to two now (so there's the guarantee that at least one of them will move on to the general)?

It definitely helps, at the moment there are two real dems in the primary plus a peace activist, while for the republicans they have two(ish) candidates left plus a tea party guy and some military dude. Truthfully the republican primary could be very fragmented...   :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 30, 2010, 11:59:28 AM
Dem field in WA-03 is down to three:

http://www.columbian.com/news/2010/mar/25/independent-rodriguez-salazar-withdraws-from-3rd-d/

So I take it with the top-two primary system, there's a lot of pressure to keep the number of legitimate party candidates down to two now (so there's the guarantee that at least one of them will move on to the general)?

Personally I think it has more to do with the establishment trying to clear the field for Heck than the nature of the top-two primary, but you may be right. And if so it's another reason why the top-two sucks - the party establishment just quietly pushes candidates out of the race and de facto selects the nominee behind the scenes out of fear of messing up the general election. How democratic.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on March 30, 2010, 03:30:47 PM
Dem field in WA-03 is down to three:

http://www.columbian.com/news/2010/mar/25/independent-rodriguez-salazar-withdraws-from-3rd-d/

So I take it with the top-two primary system, there's a lot of pressure to keep the number of legitimate party candidates down to two now (so there's the guarantee that at least one of them will move on to the general)?

Some of those anti-latino comments are pretty funny. Especially the one that says she's withdrawing because of her anti-white views and trying to make a grand latino army.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on March 30, 2010, 04:26:53 PM
Dem field in WA-03 is down to three:

http://www.columbian.com/news/2010/mar/25/independent-rodriguez-salazar-withdraws-from-3rd-d/

So I take it with the top-two primary system, there's a lot of pressure to keep the number of legitimate party candidates down to two now (so there's the guarantee that at least one of them will move on to the general)?

Personally I think it has more to do with the establishment trying to clear the field for Heck than the nature of the top-two primary, but you may be right. And if so it's another reason why the top-two sucks - the party establishment just quietly pushes candidates out of the race and de facto selects the nominee behind the scenes out of fear of messing up the general election. How democratic.

Yeah, though to be fair none of the candidates who have dropped out so far really had any chance of winning the primary, now should the democrats somehow get Pridemore to drop out then it definitely would smack of establishment interference.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on March 31, 2010, 12:44:40 PM
Does anyone know if Democrats will be able to maintain control of the Washington and Oregon legislatures, or if they will be overwhelmed by Republicans this year? 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on March 31, 2010, 01:05:03 PM
Does anyone know if Democrats will be able to maintain control of the Washington and Oregon legislatures, or if they will be overwhelmed by Republicans this year? 

The democrats would have to lose a huge number of seats in both states to lose their majorities which basically are near super-majorities (at least I think so). I feel like while the national scene may be heavily tilted towards a republican wave there may not be as much of a move on the local level in the Pacific Northwest.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 01, 2010, 04:50:54 PM
Rep. Brendan Williams (D-Olympia), one of the most liberal members of the State House, is exploring a bid for the State Supreme Court.

(Not an April Fools joke)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on April 15, 2010, 01:44:12 AM
Guys...what happened to us?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 15, 2010, 01:52:10 AM

Nothing interesting has been happening. :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 15, 2010, 09:04:27 AM
Well the Legislature finally adjourned. And Tim Eyman's upset about what they did. And Rossi's still flirting with a Senate race.

So yeah.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on April 15, 2010, 12:31:38 PM
lol rossi


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on April 15, 2010, 12:59:46 PM
Well the Legislature finally adjourned. And Tim Eyman's upset about what they did. And Rossi's still flirting with a Senate race.

So yeah.

In other words, same old, same old.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on April 15, 2010, 05:57:07 PM
Why isn't Tim Eyman running for office in his own right instead of continually hiding behind his initiatives?  This would be the perfect year for him to do that. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on April 15, 2010, 11:01:22 PM
Why isn't Tim Eyman running for office in his own right instead of continually hiding behind his initiatives?  This would be the perfect year for him to do that. 

Because even in a year like this he would lose handily. There were a few scandals involving his fund raising for initiatives that could easily be exploited. Plus he wants to destroy government, not run it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 15, 2010, 11:17:22 PM
Why isn't Tim Eyman running for office in his own right instead of continually hiding behind his initiatives?  This would be the perfect year for him to do that. 

He has no actual interest in public policy. This is simply how he makes his living.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on April 16, 2010, 12:36:06 AM
Eyman has also pissed off nearly every political group in the state, and not so long ago.  Firefighters and municipal employees are not good enemies to make and he did that last year.  It won't be forgotten.  I think GOP leaners with ties to municipal service unions are a much bigger group than swing voters who are Eyman devotees (or even know who the guy is.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 16, 2010, 02:20:10 PM
Craig Pridemore managed to raise only $74,000 in the last quarter and has $50,000 on hand. In related news, Denny Heck will be the Democratic candidate in WA-03.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 16, 2010, 03:30:20 PM
Craig Pridemore managed to raise only $74,000 in the last quarter and has $50,000 on hand. In related news, Denny Heck will be the Democratic candidate in WA-03.

I like Pridemore, but he doesn't really seem like a candidate who could win WA-3. I'm not quite sure what appeal Heck would have, though. From what I remember, he was a Vancouver area legislator back in the day, but has been in Olympia for quite some time now. Perhaps having spent a lot of time in the district's two largest population bases will benefit him.

I will say (again) that I think places like Cowlitz County tend to prefer establishment Democrats like Heck to Pridemore types, though.

I really have no idea what's going on on the Republican side, though. Castillo seems to be giving Herrera a run for her money, last I read. And the possiblity of our top two primary giving us a strange general election always lingers.

In WA-8 news, DelBene has actually raised a lot of money (more than Reichert, even). Interesting, but I doubt it will make much of a difference.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 17, 2010, 09:16:09 AM
Heck seems to have outraised the entire field combined. Some of it's self-funding, but that's still pretty impressive.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 17, 2010, 10:05:38 AM
Heck seems to have outraised the entire field combined. Some of it's self-funding, but that's still pretty impressive.

With the entire Washington State Democratic establishment behind him I'd be kind of surprised if he hadn't raised that kind of money.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on April 18, 2010, 02:16:36 PM
Heck seems to have outraised the entire field combined. Some of it's self-funding, but that's still pretty impressive.

With the entire Washington State Democratic establishment behind him I'd be kind of surprised if he hadn't raised that kind of money.

I visited their campaign offices a while ago and they were humming, with everything geared towards fund raising. Has he released 1st quarter fund raising numbers yet?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 18, 2010, 02:23:37 PM
Heck seems to have outraised the entire field combined. Some of it's self-funding, but that's still pretty impressive.

With the entire Washington State Democratic establishment behind him I'd be kind of surprised if he hadn't raised that kind of money.

I visited their campaign offices a while ago and they were humming, with everything geared towards fund raising. Has he released 1st quarter fund raising numbers yet?

FEC says Heck raised $204k, loaned himself $150k, and has $532k on hand.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 18, 2010, 02:45:36 PM
What's with this huge Washington thread?  Is there something that's so interesting about Washington politics that it deserves its own thread?

Abnormally large amount of posters from the state.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 18, 2010, 08:56:25 PM
State Legislature Race Ratings!

State Senate

Safe Dem
Paull Shin (21st District)
Rosa Franklin (29th District)
Darlene Fairley (32nd District)
OPEN SEAT (34th District)
Tim Sheldon (35th District)
Jeanne Kohl-Welles (36th District)
Adam Kline (37th District)
Jean Berkey (38th District)
Ed Murray (43rd District)
Ken Jacobsen (46th District)**

Likely Dem
Karen Keiser (33rd District)

Lean Dem
Chris Marr (6th District)
Derek Kilmer (26th District)
Tracey Eide (30th District)
Randy Gordon (41st District)*
Steve Hobbs (44th District)

Toss-up
Eric Oemig (45th District)
Claudia Kauffman (47th District)
Rodney Tom (48th District)

Lean GOP

Likely GOP
Pam Roach (31st District)
OPEN SEAT (42nd District)

Safe GOP
Bob Morton (7th District)
Jerome Delvin (8th District)
Janéa Holmquist (13th District)
Jim Honeyford (15th District)

* = Special election
** = Legitimate primary challenge

Some of these are a little tough. Basically everyone in the "Lean Dems" section should be vulnerable this year. The problem is that the people the GOP is running in these seats are either a) bad candidates, b) candidates with no money or c) both. Compounding the GOP's problem is that those same Democratic incumbents have on the most part ungodly amounts of money already in the bank (Kilmer has something like $150,000 CoH) and they haven't even begun to raise money this year (they legally couldn't until session ended on Tuesday). So we'll need to re-examine all these races come late June/early July to get a better idea as to how legitimate the GOP challenges are.

On the Republican side of things Pam Roach is only competitive because she's Pam Roach, but if she couldn't be taken out in 2006 I don't see how she loses this year. Dale Brandland is retiring in the 42nd but State Rep. Doug Ericksen basically has the race already wrapped up.

In short: I'd predict GOP gains in the 3-5 range at this point. But ask me again in two months.


EDIT: Forgot that McDermott is running for King County Council; updated to reflect that. Still Safe Dem.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 19, 2010, 12:15:32 AM
State House

Safe Dem
OPEN SEAT (3rd District, Position 1)
Timm Ormsby (3rd District, Position 2)
Zach Hudgins (11th District, Position 1)
Bob Hasegawa (11th District, Position 2)
Dean Takko (19th District, Position 1)
Brian Blake (19th District, Position 2)
Mary Helen Roberts (21st District, Position 1)
OPEN SEAT (22nd District, Position 1)
Sam Hunt (22nd District, Position 2)
Christine Rolfes (23rd District, Position 2)
Kevin Van De Wege (24th District, Position 1)
OPEN SEAT (27th District, Position 1)
Jeannie Darneille (27th District, Position 2)
Steve Conway (29th District, Position 1)
Steve Kirby (29th District, Position 1)
Mark Miloscia (30th District, Position 1)
Maralyn Chase (32nd District, Position 1)
Ruth Kagi (32nd District, Position 2
Tina Orwall (33rd District, Position 1)
Dave Upthegrove (33rd District, Position 2)
Eileen Cody (34th District, Position 1)
OPEN SEAT (34th District, Postion 2)
Fred Finn (35th District, Position 2)
Reuven Carlyle (36th District, Position 1)
Mary Lou Dickerson (36th District, Position 2)
Sharon Tomiko Santos (37th District, Position 1)
Eric Pettigrew (37th District, Position 2)
John McCoy (38th District, Position 1)
Mike Sells (38th District, Position 2)
OPEN SEAT (40th District, Position 1)
Jeff Morris (40th District, Position 2)
Judy Clibborn (41st District, Position 2)
Jamie Pedersen (43rd District, Position 1)
Frank Chopp (43rd District, Position 2)
Larry Springer (45th District, Position 2)
Scott White (46th District, Position 1)
Phyllis Kenney (46th District, Position 2)
Ross Hunter (48th District, Position 1)
Deb Eddy (48th District, Position 2)
Jim Jacks (49th District, Position 1)**
Jim Moeller (49th District, Position 2)

Likely Dem
OPEN SEAT (1st District, Position 1)
Mark Ericks (1st District, Position 2)**
Marko Liias (21st District, Position 2)
Sherry Appleton (23rd District, Position 1)
Troy Kelley (28th District, Position 1)
Kelli Linville (42nd District, Position 2)
Hans Dunshee (44th District, Position 1)
Pat Sullivan (47th District, Position 2)

Lean Dem
Deb Wallace (17th District, Position 2)
OPEN SEAT (24th District, Position 2)
Larry Seaquist (26th District, Position 2)
Chris Hurst (31st District, Position 2)
Kathy Haigh (35th District, Position 1)
Marcie Maxwell (41st District, Position 1)

Toss-up
John Driscoll (6th District, Position 2)
Tim Probst (17th District, Position 1)
Dawn Morrell (25th District, Position 2)
Tami Green (28th District, Position 2)
OPEN SEAT (42nd District, Position 1)
Roger Goodman (45th District, Position 1)

Lean GOP
Glenn Anderson (5th District, Position 2)
Geoff Simpson (47th District, Position 1)

Likely GOP
Jim McCune (2nd District, Position 1)
Jay Rodne (5th District, Position 1)
Jan Angel (26th District, Position 1)
Dan Kristiansen (39th District, Position 1)
Mike Hope (44th District, Position 2)

Safe GOP
Tom Campbell (2nd District, Position 2)**
Larry Crouse (4th District, Position 1)
Matt Shea (4th District, Position 2)
Kevin Parker (6th District, Position 1)
Shelly Short (7th District, Position 1)
Joel Kretz (7th District, Position 2)
Brad Klippert (8th District, Position 1)
Larry Haler (8th District, Position 2)
Susan Fagan (9th District, Position 1)
Joe Schmick (9th District, Position 2)
Norma Smith (10th District, Position 1)
Barbara Bailey (10th District, Position 2)
Cary Condotta (12th District, Position 1)
Mike Armstrong (12th District, Position 2)
Judy Warnick (13th District, Position 1)
Bill Hinkle (13th District, Position 2)
Norm Johnson (14th District, Position 1)**
Charles Ross (14th District, Position 2)
Bruce Chandler (15th District, Position 1)
David Taylor (15th District, Position 2)
Maureen Walsh (16th District, Position 1)
Terry Nealey (16th District, Position 2)
OPEN SEAT (18th District, Position 1)
Ed Orcutt (18th District, Position 2)
Richard DeBolt (20th District, Position 1)
Gary Alexander (20th District, Position 2)
Bruce Dammeier (25th District, Position 1)
Skip Priest (30th District, Position 2)
OPEN SEAT (31st District, Position 1)
Kirk Pearson (39th District, Position 2)

** = Legitimate primary challenge

As with the Senate, there are a number of Democratic seats that should/could be competitive if the GOP manages to either find candidates or fund the candidates. Some of the Safe Dems are in districts Rossi managed to win in 2008, but if there's no Republican candidate I don't really have any choice to put them anywhere but there. Again, these will probably change significantly after the filing deadline has passed and we get a better idea of which of the challengers are serious fundraisers.

Geoff Simpson is screwed. He barely survived in 2008 and is running against the same guy again. It's an Obama/Rossi district and that fact combined with Simpson's vote on the first version of the tax package spells his demise. The fact that he beats his wife also probably reflects poorly on his character.

Meanwhile, there are actually some opportunities for the Democrats to pick up a seat or two. It's not really clear what the field looks like for the open seat in the 42nd yet (there's a Republican and a few Democrats registered with the PDC but none have raised significant amounts of money). Also there's a small chance Kelli Linville may decide to run for the State Senate herself (her seatmate, Doug Ericksen, is already in the race). That would only further complicate things for the other House seat (people may jump races) and she doesn't really have to make that decision until the filing deadline, so we're not really going to know what's going on in this district for a while. The district is an odd one and is extremely polarized (contains both Lynden and Bellingham). Gregoire managed to win it narrowly, FWIW.

In the 5th District Glenn Anderson had a surprisingly poor result in 2008 and has another legitimate challenger this time around. I think he'll hold on, but it's one to watch. He's also having a not-so-secret affair with the State Senator from the district which certainly isn't helping things.

Overall GOP gains will probably be in the 7-10 range, maybe more.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 19, 2010, 12:56:16 AM
Geoff Simpson is screwed. He barely survived in 2008 and is running against the same guy again. It's an Obama/Rossi district and that fact combined with Simpson's vote on the first version of the tax package spells his demise. The fact that he beats his wife also probably reflects poorly on his character.

Ehh, he won by about 5%. Not quite "barely" IMO, and didn't the wife beating stuff come out BEFORE that (and has since proven to be BS)?

Quote
Meanwhile, there are actually some opportunities for the Democrats to pick up a seat or two. It's not really clear what the field looks like for the open seat in the 42nd yet (there's a Republican and a few Democrats registered with the PDC but none have raised significant amounts of money). Also there's a small chance Kelli Linville may decide to run for the State Senate herself (her seatmate, Doug Ericksen, is already in the race). That would only further complicate things for the other House seat (people may jump races) and she doesn't really have to make that decision until the filing deadline, so we're not really going to know what's going on in this district for a while. The district is an odd one and is extremely polarized (contains both Lynden and Bellingham). Gregoire managed to win it narrowly, FWIW.

I wouldn't count on it. The most liberal parts of Bellingham are just to the south in the 40th district, and the non-Bellingham/Lynden swing-ish areas (Ferndale and what not) will probably have a big swing to the Republicans. Linville would be wise to simply keep her House seat, IMO.

Quote
In the 5th District Glenn Anderson had a surprisingly poor result in 2008 and has another legitimate challenger this time around. I think he'll hold on, but it's one to watch. He's also having a not-so-secret affair with the State Senator from the district which certainly isn't helping things.

Anderson always does poorly compared to his fellow Republicans in the 5th LD. I'm not quite sure why, but he always hangs on barely. If the Democrats had bothered to run a candidate in 2006, they might have been able to take him down. But I really don't see how someone who survived in 2008 will be going down in 2010. His likely opponent this time is some VP from T-Mobile who worked on Mallahan's campaign. I suppose he might have some decent donor sources. It will be interesting, but I'm not expecting Anderson to go anywhere. The Democrats were moronic for not running anyone here in 2006.

The 5th district has had the 2nd highest growth of any LD since the last re-districting, so the border's will be changing a ton in 2012... I really don't know how, but it may change the nature of the district significantly.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on April 19, 2010, 01:01:37 AM
Amount raised so far on GOP side of things for the 3rd district:
Herrera: $197,000
Castillo: $162,731

Castillo should not be counted out by the way. I feel like the GOP/media has simply chosen Herrera as the republican candidate...

Meanwhile Pridemore just won the endorsement of the Sierra Club (though honestly I feel like Pridemore needed to do much better on the fund-raising side of things to still be considered competitive). Though it seems like the liberals in Olympia are finally beginning to understand that Pridemore is the more liberal candidate on the dems side of things, could mean a shift...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 19, 2010, 01:20:20 AM
Amount raised so far on GOP side of things for the 3rd district:
Herrera: $197,000
Castillo: $162,731

Castillo should not be counted out by the way. I feel like the GOP/media has simply chosen Herrera as the republican candidate...

Meanwhile Pridemore just won the endorsement of the Sierra Club (though honestly I feel like Pridemore needed to do much better on the fund-raising side of things to still be considered competitive). Though it seems like the liberals in Olympia are finally beginning to understand that Pridemore is the more liberal candidate on the dems side of things, could mean a shift...


Castillo seems like the Tea Party's choice... could be significant in the primary.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 19, 2010, 02:19:20 PM
Geoff Simpson is screwed. He barely survived in 2008 and is running against the same guy again. It's an Obama/Rossi district and that fact combined with Simpson's vote on the first version of the tax package spells his demise. The fact that he beats his wife also probably reflects poorly on his character.

Ehh, he won by about 5%. Not quite "barely" IMO, and didn't the wife beating stuff come out BEFORE that (and has since proven to be BS)?

He outspent his opponent 300k to 50k in 2008; he definitely underperformed badly."Barely" may have been too strong a word, I'll agree. He may be in the Toss-up category. I still think he's more likely than not to lose though and is definitely the most vulnerable incumbent. The wife beating stuff is still floating around according to people I know in the 47th LD Dems, FWIW.

Geoff Meanwhile, there are actually some opportunities for the Democrats to pick up a seat or two. It's not really clear what the field looks like for the open seat in the 42nd yet (there's a Republican and a few Democrats registered with the PDC but none have raised significant amounts of money). Also there's a small chance Kelli Linville may decide to run for the State Senate herself (her seatmate, Doug Ericksen, is already in the race). That would only further complicate things for the other House seat (people may jump races) and she doesn't really have to make that decision until the filing deadline, so we're not really going to know what's going on in this district for a while. The district is an odd one and is extremely polarized (contains both Lynden and Bellingham). Gregoire managed to win it narrowly, FWIW.

I wouldn't count on it. The most liberal parts of Bellingham are just to the south in the 40th district, and the non-Bellingham/Lynden swing-ish areas (Ferndale and what not) will probably have a big swing to the Republicans. Linville would be wise to simply keep her House seat, IMO.

I think I'll probably move it into the Lean GOP come summer but until we see what type of candidate they get and what type of money he/she raises I'm not really comfortable saying one way or the other. In general the district is slightly more Democratic than places like the 44th and the 47th; in a normal year I'd say the Dems would even be slightly favored to pick it up.

In the 5th District Glenn Anderson had a surprisingly poor result in 2008 and has another legitimate challenger this time around. I think he'll hold on, but it's one to watch. He's also having a not-so-secret affair with the State Senator from the district which certainly isn't helping things.

Anderson always does poorly compared to his fellow Republicans in the 5th LD. I'm not quite sure why, but he always hangs on barely. If the Democrats had bothered to run a candidate in 2006, they might have been able to take him down. But I really don't see how someone who survived in 2008 will be going down in 2010. His likely opponent this time is some VP from T-Mobile who worked on Mallahan's campaign. I suppose he might have some decent donor sources. It will be interesting, but I'm not expecting Anderson to go anywhere. The Democrats were moronic for not running anyone here in 2006.

The 5th district has had the 2nd highest growth of any LD since the last re-districting, so the border's will be changing a ton in 2012... I really don't know how, but it may change the nature of the district significantly.

I mean, I put him in the "Lean Republican" category, so I think he'll hold on as well. He's easily the most endangered Republican incumbent though. A race to keep an eye on IMO.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 19, 2010, 02:36:06 PM
I live in both the 40th and 5th districts, and literally live like a block away from the 42nd and 45th districts, so I'm going to be unusually interested in anything you say about said districts. ;D

To expand on what I was saying earlier, IIRC the 5th LD is going to have to have about 30,000 people cut out during the next redistricting. That is huge and could massively change the politics of the district. Maybe. I really don't know what they'll cut out though. Probably a little bit from all sides, but given how much needs to be cut out they'll need to hack off most of a city somewhere. Maple Valley, perhaps. Population growth is more stable on the Eastside, and for that reason the 45th district won't have to change too much (so it would be difficult to just throw all of Sammamish in the 45th). So yeah, I'm thinking Maple Valley and/or East Renton Highlands will be cut out. But anything could happen. There's really no historic precedent for fast-growing suburban legislative districts like there is with congressional districts.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 20, 2010, 10:07:17 AM
Rep. Chris Hurst (D-31st District) is going to run for re-election with the party label "Independent Democrat" and says others may do the same.

Hopefully he and any others who do this will also be "independent" of any financial support from the party committees.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 20, 2010, 11:16:26 AM
Rep. Chris Hurst (D-31st District) is going to run for re-election with the party label "Independent Democrat" and says others may do the same.

Hopefully he and any others who do this will also be "independent" of any financial support from the party committees.

To me, that reads "I'm a whiny little brat who wants nothing more than to get re-elected and I'm going to make it blatantly obvious!"

But I don't really care, I guess. If it works... :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 20, 2010, 06:22:00 PM
Rep. Chris Hurst (D-31st District) is going to run for re-election with the party label "Independent Democrat" and says others may do the same.

Hopefully he and any others who do this will also be "independent" of any financial support from the party committees.

Didn't the state Democratic party cause a stink in 2008 because candidates were listing themselves as under the "Democrat Party"?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on April 20, 2010, 06:45:23 PM
Rep. Chris Hurst (D-31st District) is going to run for re-election with the party label "Independent Democrat" and says others may do the same.

Hopefully he and any others who do this will also be "independent" of any financial support from the party committees.

Didn't the state Democratic party cause a stink in 2008 because candidates were listing themselves as under the "Democrat Party"?

I don't remember, though I do remember that Rossi registered under the "GOP Party", idiot.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 20, 2010, 08:38:01 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2011656907_incometax21m.html

Eek. Just what the Republicans would need to GOTV and erase all 2006-2008 gains the Democrats made.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on April 20, 2010, 09:28:28 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2011656907_incometax21m.html

Eek. Just what the Republicans would need to GOTV and erase all 2006-2008 gains the Democrats made.

I am not so sure, taxing the rich usually seems to prove pretty popular, and it helps that Gates seems to be one of the main proponents of the measure.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 20, 2010, 09:36:12 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2011656907_incometax21m.html

Eek. Just what the Republicans would need to GOTV and erase all 2006-2008 gains the Democrats made.

I am not so sure, taxing the rich usually seems to prove pretty popular, and it helps that Gates seems to be one of the main proponents of the measure.

Gates, Sr., that is.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on April 20, 2010, 09:47:59 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2011656907_incometax21m.html

Eek. Just what the Republicans would need to GOTV and erase all 2006-2008 gains the Democrats made.

I am not so sure, taxing the rich usually seems to prove pretty popular, and it helps that Gates seems to be one of the main proponents of the measure.

Gates, Sr., that is.

Well, yes. But simply having the Gates name (even if it is the wrong one) should help, it basically puts out the idea of: "Hey, it's ok! Tax us richies!"


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on April 21, 2010, 01:50:34 AM
Does anyone else think Democrats (or anyone) voluntarily putting "Independent" in their name is an immensely dumb decision?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on April 21, 2010, 09:12:41 PM
Does anyone else think Democrats (or anyone) voluntarily putting "Independent" in their name is an immensely dumb decision?

Yes, and I would fully expect my idiot representative (Tim Sheldon) to pull a trick like this. I almost want to just elect a republican to get rid of him.
Speaking of which is there any chance that the district will change enough after 2010 to make it more difficult for Sheldon (either a major shift to the left by incorporating more of Olympia or a major shift to the right by moving to become a more rural district)?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 21, 2010, 09:45:07 PM
Does anyone else think Democrats (or anyone) voluntarily putting "Independent" in their name is an immensely dumb decision?

Yes, and I would fully expect my idiot representative (Tim Sheldon) to pull a trick like this. I almost want to just elect a republican to get rid of him.
Speaking of which is there any chance that the district will change enough after 2010 to make it more difficult for Sheldon (either a major shift to the left by incorporating more of Olympia or a major shift to the right by moving to become a more rural district)?

It's population will only need to change about ~1,600, so at a glance I don't think it will have any major changes. It's always possible, though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 22, 2010, 05:16:44 PM
SUSA has potentially very good numbers for I-1077

A proposed initiative would create an income tax in Washington state on people making $200,000 per year and on couples making twice that. It would also cut the state's portion of the property tax by 20%, and end the business and occupation tax for small businesses. Do you support or do you oppose this proposed initiative?

66% Support
27% Oppose

Question wording is bit too favorable for the "Support" side IMO; it frames the initiative pretty much exactly how they want it to be looked at.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on April 22, 2010, 05:30:37 PM
SUSA has potentially very good numbers for I-1077

A proposed initiative would create an income tax in Washington state on people making $200,000 per year and on couples making twice that. It would also cut the state's portion of the property tax by 20%, and end the business and occupation tax for small businesses. Do you support or do you oppose this proposed initiative?

66% Support
27% Oppose

Question wording is bit too favorable for the "Support" side IMO; it frames the initiative pretty much exactly how they want it to be looked at.


While I would very much like for this initiative to pass, what chance would it have of being upheld in court if it did?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 22, 2010, 05:32:24 PM

LOL. Wow.

It'll be fun watching the Republicans cry over this one.

SUSA has potentially very good numbers for I-1077

A proposed initiative would create an income tax in Washington state on people making $200,000 per year and on couples making twice that. It would also cut the state's portion of the property tax by 20%, and end the business and occupation tax for small businesses. Do you support or do you oppose this proposed initiative?

66% Support
27% Oppose

Question wording is bit too favorable for the "Support" side IMO; it frames the initiative pretty much exactly how they want it to be looked at.


While I would very much like for this initiative to pass, what chance would it have of being upheld in court if it did?

Who knows, but with those numbers they might as well just go for a constitutional amendment.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 22, 2010, 05:33:20 PM
SUSA has potentially very good numbers for I-1077

A proposed initiative would create an income tax in Washington state on people making $200,000 per year and on couples making twice that. It would also cut the state's portion of the property tax by 20%, and end the business and occupation tax for small businesses. Do you support or do you oppose this proposed initiative?

66% Support
27% Oppose

Question wording is bit too favorable for the "Support" side IMO; it frames the initiative pretty much exactly how they want it to be looked at.


While I would very much like for this initiative to pass, what chance would it have of being upheld in court if it did?

No one really knows. The precedent hasn't been tested by the State Supreme Court in decades.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on April 22, 2010, 09:41:24 PM
SUSA has potentially very good numbers for I-1077

A proposed initiative would create an income tax in Washington state on people making $200,000 per year and on couples making twice that. It would also cut the state's portion of the property tax by 20%, and end the business and occupation tax for small businesses. Do you support or do you oppose this proposed initiative?

66% Support
27% Oppose

Question wording is bit too favorable for the "Support" side IMO; it frames the initiative pretty much exactly how they want it to be looked at.


While I would very much like for this initiative to pass, what chance would it have of being upheld in court if it did?

No one really knows. The precedent hasn't been tested by the State Supreme Court in decades.

Out of curiosity -assuming it does reach the state Supreme Court, on what basis would they overturn an income tax initiative once voters approve it?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on April 22, 2010, 09:52:31 PM
SUSA has potentially very good numbers for I-1077

A proposed initiative would create an income tax in Washington state on people making $200,000 per year and on couples making twice that. It would also cut the state's portion of the property tax by 20%, and end the business and occupation tax for small businesses. Do you support or do you oppose this proposed initiative?

66% Support
27% Oppose

Question wording is bit too favorable for the "Support" side IMO; it frames the initiative pretty much exactly how they want it to be looked at.


While I would very much like for this initiative to pass, what chance would it have of being upheld in court if it did?

No one really knows. The precedent hasn't been tested by the State Supreme Court in decades.

Out of curiosity -assuming it does reach the state Supreme Court, on what basis would they overturn an income tax initiative once voters approve it?

I am pretty sure the state constitution does not allow for an income tax.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on April 22, 2010, 10:13:05 PM
SUSA has potentially very good numbers for I-1077

A proposed initiative would create an income tax in Washington state on people making $200,000 per year and on couples making twice that. It would also cut the state's portion of the property tax by 20%, and end the business and occupation tax for small businesses. Do you support or do you oppose this proposed initiative?

66% Support
27% Oppose

Question wording is bit too favorable for the "Support" side IMO; it frames the initiative pretty much exactly how they want it to be looked at.


While I would very much like for this initiative to pass, what chance would it have of being upheld in court if it did?

No one really knows. The precedent hasn't been tested by the State Supreme Court in decades.

Out of curiosity -assuming it does reach the state Supreme Court, on what basis would they overturn an income tax initiative once voters approve it?

I am pretty sure the state constitution does not allow for an income tax.

If it doesn't, it is veiled in ambiguity, as I see nothing in Article VII (http://www.leg.wa.gov/lawsandagencyrules/pages/constitution.aspx) that explicitly forbids the taxation of income (itself a form of property, as I understand it).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 22, 2010, 10:25:03 PM
The state constitution says something about how tax rates have to be equal.

From what I understand, a flat income tax would be legal. A progressive income tax would not.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 22, 2010, 11:07:29 PM
The reasoning lies in the second sentence of Article VII, Section 1:

Quote
All taxes shall be uniform upon the same class of property within the territorial limits of the authority levying the tax and shall be levied and collected for public purposes only.

The bolded part is the key. The Washington State Supreme Court has ruled that income counts as a "class of property" and as such any taxation on it must be uniform, which an income tax is not because it creates two classes of real estate - "income-producing land" and "unproductive land". If you're thinking to yourself "WTF that's the dumbest ruling ever", you're not alone.

For those curious, Article VII, Section 1 was never actually intended to forbid an income tax. The problem lies in the writers being a bit sloppy when drafting the section and copying some language from another state constitution (don't recall which one) that when coupled with the language in the next sentence of the section (which defines what "property" is) caused the Court to interpret the section in this manner.

After the initial Court ruling (which overturned a graduated income tax initiative that, funnily enough, was overwhelmingly endorsed by voters in the 1932 election due to a revenue shortfall), the Legislature passed numerous amendments attempting to rectify the problem, including one which simply read "The constitution does not prohibit the levy of a graduated income tax." All attempts were rejected by voters.

The Legislature implemented a sales tax and a B&O tax as "emergency measures" to tide the state over until an income tax could be sorted out. Eventually, however, it became clear that an income tax wasn't going to happen and the emergency tax laws gradually became permanent and accepted. There was sufficient revenue from these taxes to run the state and the income tax fell off the radar screen and became the third rail of Washington politics that it's been for the past few decades.

EDIT: The reasoning bgwah mentioned above is also frequently cited (a progressive income tax isn't uniform because it has different rates). I read an article several years ago that gave the reason I mentioned as the primary factor though; I'm trying to find it again and read it over.

EDIT AGAIN: I read through the significant parts of the ruling... essentially what I was saying was the specific section of the law the Court cited or something. I don't really understand the details; I'm not a lawyer.

The short and skinny is that a Court ruled a long time ago that income is property and you have to tax all property at the same rate. That ruling today could be considered BS and overturned for various reasons. We just don't know.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 23, 2010, 12:13:41 AM
^ I eagerly await cries of JUDICIAL ACTIVISM!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 23, 2010, 11:48:34 AM
Sen. Darlene Fairley (D-32nd District) is retiring, citing that she no longer enjoys being in the Legislature. District is Safe Democrat.

Quote
To Everyone:

Around Christmas time last year I was griping and groaning about having to go back to Olympia soon. My husband (who had just about had it with my complaints) said I should wait until the end of this session to see if I felt the same.

If anything, my feelings are more negative than before.

I’ve always believed that if you hate what you’re doing, and you can't give it your best, stop doing it. Life is too short to waste on things you don’t enjoy doing.

We never know what’s going to happen next, but I do know that I’m not running again. 16 years is enough.

To all of you—take care,

Darlene


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 23, 2010, 06:26:42 PM
Gregoire says she'll sign the petition for I-1077


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 23, 2010, 11:48:02 PM
Does anyone else think Democrats (or anyone) voluntarily putting "Independent" in their name is an immensely dumb decision?

Yes, and I would fully expect my idiot representative (Tim Sheldon) to pull a trick like this. I almost want to just elect a republican to get rid of him.
Speaking of which is there any chance that the district will change enough after 2010 to make it more difficult for Sheldon (either a major shift to the left by incorporating more of Olympia or a major shift to the right by moving to become a more rural district)?

So, I take it Sheldon is running for re-election? Does he have any Democratic or Green challengers?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 24, 2010, 11:28:25 AM
Does anyone else think Democrats (or anyone) voluntarily putting "Independent" in their name is an immensely dumb decision?

Yes, and I would fully expect my idiot representative (Tim Sheldon) to pull a trick like this. I almost want to just elect a republican to get rid of him.
Speaking of which is there any chance that the district will change enough after 2010 to make it more difficult for Sheldon (either a major shift to the left by incorporating more of Olympia or a major shift to the right by moving to become a more rural district)?

So, I take it Sheldon is running for re-election? Does he have any Democratic or Green challengers?

None have filed with the PDC.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 24, 2010, 01:19:57 PM
Republican Senate candidate Chris Widener, who lives next door to Dino Rossi, mysteriously dropped out of the race today only two days after attending a primary debate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on April 24, 2010, 01:31:25 PM
Republican Senate candidate Chris Widener, who lives next door to Dino Rossi, mysteriously dropped out of the race today only two days after attending a primary debate.

I heard Widener in an interview say that Rossi was still undecided about the race, and that he was looking to get out whether or not Rossi ran, but I have a feeling that Rossi is leaning towards running right now.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on April 24, 2010, 02:19:19 PM
Republican Senate candidate Chris Widener, who lives next door to Dino Rossi, mysteriously dropped out of the race today only two days after attending a primary debate.

I heard Widener in an interview say that Rossi was still undecided about the race, and that he was looking to get out whether or not Rossi ran, but I have a feeling that Rossi is leaning towards running right now.

Really? I feel like Rossi would be better off trying to get into some other office, Murray sort of has a huge war chest to take him down with, or does he just like getting rejected over and over?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 24, 2010, 02:27:02 PM
Republican Senate candidate Chris Widener, who lives next door to Dino Rossi, mysteriously dropped out of the race today only two days after attending a primary debate.

I heard Widener in an interview say that Rossi was still undecided about the race, and that he was looking to get out whether or not Rossi ran, but I have a feeling that Rossi is leaning towards running right now.

Really? I feel like Rossi would be better off trying to get into some other office, Murray sort of has a huge war chest to take him down with, or does he just like getting rejected over and over?

I agree it doesn't really make any sense for Rossi to do this, but Widener dropping out is the clearest sign to me that Rossi may be about to make the plunge (still don't think he will though).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on April 24, 2010, 02:29:29 PM
http://blog.lib.umn.edu/cspg/smartpolitics/2010/04/still_thinking_about_running_f.php

Quote
A Smart Politics analysis of 166 general election contests conducted since 2000 finds that - with one unique exception - the latest a non-incumbent has announced their candidacy and gone on to win a U.S. Senate seat is April 3rd of the election year.

That distinction goes to Mark Dayton, former DFL Senator from Minnesota, who announced his candidacy on April 3, 2000, and holds the record over the past decade for the shortest period between such an announcement and Election Day - at 218 days.

The exception, of course, is the last-minute Frank Lautenberg switch.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 02, 2010, 11:48:10 AM
Rep. Skip Priest (R-31st District) will be running for the newly created office of Mayor of Federal Way. The State Senator and other Representative from the district are Democrats so normally I'd say we'd have a shot but in this climate perhaps not.

Priest was also one of maybe two "moderates" in the House GOP caucus (although he really isn't that moderate IMO).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 04, 2010, 01:18:05 PM
Another retirement, and it's a big one: Sen. Rosa Franklin (D-29th District) will be stepping down. Franklin is the current President Pro Tem of the Senate and has served in the body since the early 1990's.

The 29th is Safe Democrat. All eyes are now on Rep. Steve Kirby and Rep. Steve Conway to see what they do.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on May 04, 2010, 04:52:04 PM
My intuition is that the drop in Dem popularity in the Federal Way district would probably be among the biggest in the state, but what's the field looking like?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 04, 2010, 05:08:02 PM
My intuition is that the drop in Dem popularity in the Federal Way district would probably be among the biggest in the state, but what's the field looking like?

No candidates have filed with the PDC nor have any announced as far as I've heard.

His 2008 opponent didn't do too bad and might want another go at it, but that's just speculation on my part.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 04, 2010, 05:12:55 PM
That was fast: Conway will run.

Prepare for a Democratic bloodbath in the race to fill his House seat.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 06, 2010, 12:08:00 AM
http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2010/05/05/1418238/lyndens-mayberry-to-run-as-independent.html

lol


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 06, 2010, 06:38:54 AM
http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2010/05/05/1418238/lyndens-mayberry-to-run-as-independent.html

lol

Amusing. It's too bad the top-two primary won't allow him to split the Republican vote in the general :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on May 08, 2010, 02:37:43 AM
http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2010/05/05/1418238/lyndens-mayberry-to-run-as-independent.html

lol

Amusing. It's too bad the top-two primary won't allow him to split the Republican vote in the general :(

How do you wind up owing $900,000 in back taxes???


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 11, 2010, 01:56:46 AM
Silly rumor flying about that Gregoire will be appointed to replace Elena Kagan. If it happens there'd be a free-for-all general election this November to replace her.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 11, 2010, 11:27:59 AM
Silly rumor flying about that Gregoire will be appointed to replace Elena Kagan. If it happens there'd be a free-for-all general election this November to replace her.

It would certainly make the "Who gets to run for Governor?" question for the Republicans more interesting/entertaining. ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 12, 2010, 03:45:59 PM
An administration official confirms her name is on the short list. Ugh.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 12, 2010, 08:13:14 PM
An administration official confirms her name is on the short list. Ugh.

Please no. Please. No. This is the wrong year for a Governor's race. I want to keep our 30 year spree of not electing Republicans alive!!

I can just see it now... Governor Brad Owen. :'(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 12, 2010, 11:44:46 PM
Looking at the timeline a bit closer, I don't think Kagan will get confirmed until sometime in late July or early August. In order to meet the October 3rd deadline for a jungle general in November, Gregoire would need to be picked, nominated, having hearings held on and confirmed in about a two month period. Probably not going to happen. The White House may even delay the nomination a bit to allow Gregoire to resign after that date.

That does mean we'd be stuck with Brad Owen for two legislative sessions though. If that happens along with the Republicans retaking one or both chambers of the legislature... *shudder*


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ebowed on May 12, 2010, 11:56:29 PM
I can just see it now... Governor Brad Owen. :'(

Revolting.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 13, 2010, 03:08:03 PM
Sonntag says he'll run for Governor if Gregoire goes: http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/archives/205797.asp


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 15, 2010, 12:04:30 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2011869710_mckenna15m.html

Ugh... Just a taste of the kind of coverage the Times will give McKenna when he runs for Governor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 15, 2010, 01:37:01 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2011869710_mckenna15m.html

Ugh... Just a taste of the kind of coverage the Times will give McKenna when he runs for Governor.

At least she's a Democrat.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on May 16, 2010, 10:00:25 PM
Speaking of McKenna, has anyone seen his bizarre new ads with the Olympic medal winner?  It's awkward enough that it's a little amusing.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 19, 2010, 12:48:11 AM
Just saw a Paul Akers ad on network TV. I'm surprised he's managed to raise the money to do that this far out.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 19, 2010, 05:24:03 PM
Repost from the main thread:

One of the two most reputable blogs in Washington State is reporting that Rossi has hired a manager and will announce his campaign in about a week.

Item #2 on this page: http://www.publicola.net/2010/05/19/hyperbolic-speeches-devoid-of-content/

Candidate filing begins in two and a half weeks, FYI


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 19, 2010, 06:09:39 PM
Repost from the main thread:

One of the two most reputable blogs in Washington State is reporting that Rossi has hired a manager and will announce his campaign in about a week.

Item #2 on this page: http://www.publicola.net/2010/05/19/hyperbolic-speeches-devoid-of-content/

Candidate filing begins in two and a half weeks, FYI

Interesting.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on May 19, 2010, 08:21:37 PM
What's so bad about Brad Owen?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 19, 2010, 08:36:06 PM

He spends most of his time forcing bored middle schoolers to sit through assemblies where his anti-drug themed classical rock band extols the dangers of marijuana.

Also pro-life, a moron, a fake Democrat, etc.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on May 19, 2010, 09:56:22 PM

He spends most of his time forcing bored middle schoolers to sit through assemblies where his anti-drug themed classical rock band extols the dangers of marijuana.

Also pro-life, a moron, a fake Democrat, etc.

Wow, he sounds pretty bad. I didn't know Washington had "Democrats" like that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 20, 2010, 03:06:34 PM
Should this thread be moved to the Congressional board for the rest of the year? ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 24, 2010, 01:08:45 PM
Washington Poll is out for anyone curious: http://www.washingtonpoll.org/results/MAY2010_tabs.pdf


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 25, 2010, 02:38:57 AM
I guess I should've said this before the move occurred, but I'd really prefer this thread remain where it was. Yes the main races in Washington State this year are Congressional, but the thread is all encompassing including initiative and referendum, state legislative races and general Washington politics as well. I just think in terms of this thread's overall body of work (which is nearing the two year mark) keeping it where it was makes much more sense.

(I know you were just trying to help Joe.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 25, 2010, 02:42:04 AM
It was also time for a title change.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 25, 2010, 02:54:03 AM
I thought that Rossi was reluctant to go against Murray because a probable loss would mean the end of his political career. Why did he suddenly change his mind?
Does he really think that the political environment is now more toxic for the Democrats than it was 3-4 months ago?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Joe Republic on May 25, 2010, 03:08:25 AM
I guess I should've said this before the move occurred, but I'd really prefer this thread remain where it was. Yes the main races in Washington State this year are Congressional, but the thread is all encompassing including initiative and referendum, state legislative races and general Washington politics as well. I just think in terms of this thread's overall body of work (which is nearing the two year mark) keeping it where it was makes much more sense.

(I know you were just trying to help Joe.)

Don't worry, I'll most likely move it back after November.  As you said yourself, and bgwah pointed out to me, the main races this year are congressional.  After those are dealt with, the focus will return to statewide/gubernatorial/local shenanigans; in which case I can put this back where it was.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 26, 2010, 03:34:22 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XSLfm_h1WY&feature=player_embedded#!

lol. Where does this idea that Dino Rossi is some charismatic politician come from? He is boorrring. But I guess he's still charismatic compared to Gregoire.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 26, 2010, 03:59:13 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XSLfm_h1WY&feature=player_embedded#!

lol. Where does this idea that Dino Rossi is some charismatic politician come from? He is boorrring. But I guess he's still charismatic compared to Gregoire.

Uhhh...

Is he gay?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: War on Want on May 26, 2010, 05:47:38 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XSLfm_h1WY&feature=player_embedded#!

lol. Where does this idea that Dino Rossi is some charismatic politician come from? He is boorrring. But I guess he's still charismatic compared to Gregoire.
He was stumbling over so many words. I couldn't take any more of it after a mintue. Ugh I'm not looking forward to suffering through his campaign ads in October.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CatoMinor on May 26, 2010, 11:23:27 PM
How well liked is Murray in Washington?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 27, 2010, 02:47:22 PM
Will anyone else think it hilarious if Dino Rossi manages to win the primary due to a big margin in King County? ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 28, 2010, 06:57:45 PM
Various nobody candidates are beginning to drop out of the Senate race now that Rossi is getting in - Art Coday and Ed Torres have both withdrawn in the past two days and thrown their support to Rossi. Right now the primary is shaping up to be Rossi vs. Didier vs. Benton vs. Akers. Candidates still have two weeks before they need to decide for sure.

Maybe we'll get lucky and Benton will drop down to the race for Baird's seat and cause the vote to split enough for two Democrats to make it to the general :D



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 28, 2010, 07:09:53 PM
The primary would be much more interesting if it was just Rossi vs. Didier, though Rossi will win either way.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 01, 2010, 03:47:06 PM
Pridemore has dropped out in WA-03.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 01, 2010, 04:22:36 PM
Pridemore has dropped out in WA-03.

Ah, so much for the possibility of a D vs D or R vs R race... :-\

I sure hope Castillo manages to take down Herrera...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 01, 2010, 05:32:15 PM
It sure didn't seem like his campaign was going anywhere, so I doubt it would have created either situation.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 03, 2010, 08:05:59 PM
Don Benton has dropped out. Hopefully Akers will do the same and give us the Rossi vs. Didier showdown we all want.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 04, 2010, 05:27:36 PM
Former State Senator Marilyn Rasmussen is running for the State House seat currently held by Jim McCune. She will lose.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lunar on June 04, 2010, 06:12:30 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XSLfm_h1WY&feature=player_embedded#!

lol. Where does this idea that Dino Rossi is some charismatic politician come from? He is boorrring. But I guess he's still charismatic compared to Gregoire.

Um, his campaign knows that for prerecorded videos, you're allowed to do another take when the candidate screws up a word and awkwardly pauses in the middle of sentences?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 05, 2010, 12:18:31 AM
Sean Salazar, another random Republican running for Senate, has dropped out.

I've also heard rumor that Cheryl Crist is about to drop out of the 3rd District race but I'm not sure I believe it.

Filing week starts Monday.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on June 05, 2010, 03:03:51 PM
Sean Salazar, another random Republican running for Senate, has dropped out.

I've also heard rumor that Cheryl Crist is about to drop out of the 3rd District race but I'm not sure I believe it.

Filing week starts Monday.

Yeah I feel like the "peace" candidate probably would not quit that easily.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 07, 2010, 12:22:38 PM
Filing week begins :D  And I just filed for my first (and probably only) political office.  Hooray.

Senate filings so far:

- D: Patty Murray

- I: Poulsbo criminal defense attorney and Chinese expert Lt. Cmdr. Schalk Leonard of Poulsbo

- R: Friend of Walla Walla Public Libraries Norma Gruber

Dare I say, this year's crop of crazies seems like it might be unusually colorful.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Torie on June 07, 2010, 12:44:24 PM
Alcon, what office are you running for?  You forgot to mention that. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 07, 2010, 12:53:38 PM
Will Dino Rossi file as "Prefers G.O.P. Party" again?

Will the SalmonYoga Party build on their 2008 results?

Will Chris Hurst be joined by other Moderate Heroes who file as "Independent Democrats"?

Will Norm Dicks receive another challenger to his left that he spends grossly unnecessary amounts of time and money on?

Oh the excitement!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 07, 2010, 01:00:03 PM
Here's a creative one: 17th Legislative District candidate Jon T. Haugen "Prefers Neither Party"


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 07, 2010, 01:13:48 PM
Looks like some R-free races might be possible in Seattle.

In the 40th LD, the Green from 2008 is running again, but there's actually a Republican candidate this time so we probably won't have a D vs G race :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 07, 2010, 02:03:43 PM
A minor Republican filed against Reichert; Adam Smith has a Green Party opponent; "Nancy (grandma) Williams" is running against Tim Sheldon


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Torie on June 07, 2010, 02:17:34 PM
John Fund, in the course of  commenting on  the California jungle primary proposition, stated that the suggestion that it will help elect less partisan and more moderate candidates is bunk, citing as evidence what the jungle primary has wrought in Washington State. He says scholarly studies show that Washington has the most partisan and ideologically polarized legislature in the country, which if true certainly surprises me. Any comment from the Washington State aficionados around here?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 07, 2010, 03:52:35 PM
Democrats who file as "Prefers Democrat Party" make me want to kill myself.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 07, 2010, 05:19:05 PM
How is Pierce County Prosecuting Attorney still partisan? Of all the things they've made unnecessarily non-partisan that seems like one office where there's actually some logic for it being made so.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 07, 2010, 05:55:32 PM
Goodspaceguy for Senate!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 07, 2010, 07:11:54 PM
Will Norm Dicks receive another challenger to his left that he spends grossly unnecessary amounts of time and money on?

His recruiter lady, Anna What's-Her-Name, came into my U.S. Politics class (which was like...2 Washingtonians) to find interns.  She was going on about how this "could be a tough year."  I'm surprised nobody seems to get pissed off at Dicks for poaching potential volunteers.

He usually pays for the coordinated campaign offices which reduces people's willingness to get mad at him and his army of pointless field workers.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 07, 2010, 07:50:45 PM
State Representative Eric Pettigrew filed as "Prefers No Party Entered Party". Not sure if he forgot to fill out that box, or there's some error on the county's part, or he's trying to run as an independent, or he's using his ballot title as a critique of the top-two party labeling rules, or something else entirely. Probably the first one though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Torie on June 07, 2010, 08:04:15 PM
Hey, why is no one commenting about my John Fund comment above?  Alcon? Bgwah?

You know lawyers tend to lash out when they get ignored. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 07, 2010, 08:16:37 PM
Hey, why is no one commenting about my John Fund comment above?  Alcon? Bgwah?

You know lawyers tend to lash out when they get ignored. :P

Our legislature is extremely polarized. The Republican caucus more than the Democratic caucus though; there's a group of moderate Democrats that call themselves the Roadkill Caucus because they feel they always get run over by the more liberal, labor-friendly caucus majority (they're mostly obnoxious Moderate Heroes though and should be ignored). There are quite literally no moderates left in the Republican caucus, although some are slightly less conservative than others.

This has been the case since before the top-two though and is mainly due to the Republican collapse in the Seattle suburbs and the Eastside which leaves them with nothing but a caucus of rural conservatives and also a number of Democrats who need to keep their moderate credentials in place in order to keep getting re-elected.

I don't think the top-two has really been in effect long enough to make any serious commentary on its impact of the state political system (we've only used it once after all). It should still be gotten rid of for other reasons of course.

ETA: Nate Silver (or maybe he just publicized someone else's work) had a post up sometime ago that showed that average Washington Democratic voters are much more liberal than the national average and average Washington Republican voters are much more conservative than the national average. The only state where the gap is bigger is, interestingly, Oregon.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 07, 2010, 08:41:27 PM
John Fund, in the course of  commenting on  the California jungle primary proposition, stated that the suggestion that it will help elect less partisan and more moderate candidates is bunk, citing as evidence what the jungle primary has wrought in Washington State. He says scholarly studies show that Washington has the most partisan and ideologically polarized legislature in the country, which if true certainly surprises me. Any comment from the Washington State aficionados around here?

I'm not aware of any studies that have said our legislature is the most polarized. Nevertheless, we've only used the top two primary for one normal election year (2008). To say it is the result of this supposed polarization doesn't really make a lot of sense to me. Most of the current legislators have been around longer than that anyway, and I can't think of any races where a more extreme candidate won as a result of the top two primary...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 07, 2010, 08:53:14 PM
Looks like the pot initiative is screwed (http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2010/06/07/pot-initiative-looks-dead#more).  Too bad, we could have had pot and booze on the same ballot.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on June 07, 2010, 09:08:01 PM
Looks like the pot initiative is screwed (http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2010/06/07/pot-initiative-looks-dead#more).  Too bad, we could have had pot and booze on the same ballot.

In times as economically challenging as these, I don't blame people for having higher priorities on their minds than legalizing pot.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 07, 2010, 09:08:27 PM
State Representative Eric Pettigrew filed as "Prefers No Party Entered Party". Not sure if he forgot to fill out that box, or there's some error on the county's part, or he's trying to run as an independent, or he's using his ballot title as a critique of the top-two party labeling rules, or something else entirely. Probably the first one though.

The Secretary of State lists him as "States No Party Preference". An unfortunate development if this turns out not to be an error.

Meanwhile, Leslie Klein will be running for State Senate as "Prefers (R) Problemfixer Party".


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 07, 2010, 09:25:04 PM
Looks like the pot initiative is screwed (http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2010/06/07/pot-initiative-looks-dead#more).  Too bad, we could have had pot and booze on the same ballot.

In times as economically challenging as these, I don't blame people for having higher priorities on their minds than legalizing pot.

I doubt many people went, "I'd sign your petition but the economy sucks too much to spend time on that."  The pot people used the economic downturn smartly, to argue too much was being wasted.  Maybe the bad economy means fewer volunteer hours -- I don't really think so.  But all in all, I don't think this was a bad year.  I just think it's a hard fight.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 07, 2010, 11:05:34 PM
The people running the campaign were also incompetent. That had a lot to do with it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Torie on June 07, 2010, 11:55:42 PM
Thanks Bgwah and Meeker. It seemed like the posited causal connection was BS to me, but I just wanted to check and see if what seemed to me to be the obvious through my long range and opaque lens, was as well to those who don't any lens at all to observe the action on a day to day basis.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 08, 2010, 12:33:45 PM
Don Rivers is running against McDermott for the third time. Rick Larsen also has a Democratic challenger.

Someone named Jesse Young has dared to challenge Doug Cloud for the right to lose to Norm Dicks.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 08, 2010, 01:16:17 PM
State Representative Eric Pettigrew filed as "Prefers No Party Entered Party". Not sure if he forgot to fill out that box, or there's some error on the county's part, or he's trying to run as an independent, or he's using his ballot title as a critique of the top-two party labeling rules, or something else entirely. Probably the first one though.

The Secretary of State lists him as "States No Party Preference". An unfortunate development if this turns out not to be an error.

Meanwhile, Leslie Klein will be running for State Senate as "Prefers (R) Problemfixer Party".

Pettigrew now says he filed on his iPhone and missed the box due to the small screen. He'll correct his party preference shortly.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 08, 2010, 01:53:38 PM
Mike The Mover running for Senate of course.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 09, 2010, 06:11:16 AM
Jesse Young actually has more signs than anyone up in my part of Tacoma currently, which is bizarre, but I think he's the Tea Party candidate.

A few hardcore supporters + Some limited cash infusion + No actual idea about how a winning campaign is run + No reason to bother anyway = Early yard signs.  It's a pretty safe formula.

Also, the highly underrated William Edward Chovil filed for Senate today, too.  I celebrated by thanking him for his vigilance against the Cold War on the way home, which I've seriously been waiting two years for him to be outside his apartment to get a chance to do.  He didn't understand what I said because he's older than time.  I was still satisfied.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on June 09, 2010, 09:33:54 AM
A few hardcore supporters + Some limited cash infusion + No actual idea about how a winning campaign is run + No reason to bother anyway = Early yard signs.  It's a pretty safe formula.

That explains the oodles of yard signs here for the Republican candidate for Congress.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 09, 2010, 12:45:56 PM
State Rep. Scott White has moved up to Ken Jacobsen's State Senate seat. David Frockt was running a primary challenge to Jacobsen until he announced his retirement a few weeks ago but once White got in the race Frockt dropped down to run for White's State House seat. White was first elected in 2008 so he's moved up pretty quick.

Ken Paulson, last seen running against Tim Farrell, has filed as an independent against Steve Conway in the race for Rosa Franklin's State Senate seat.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 10, 2010, 12:41:37 PM
Dino Rossi sadly "Prefers Republican Party".

We're also going to have at least 12 Senate candidates on the primary ballot.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 10, 2010, 03:10:54 PM
Doug (Yoshe) Revelle [Prefers Happiness Party] is running in the 40th LD. Awesome.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 10, 2010, 03:14:21 PM
The 40th is the same LD that the Salmon Yoga Party came from two years ago.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 10, 2010, 04:04:30 PM
So we have a couple people running as "Independent No Party" candidates. Is the filing form really that confusing?

ANYWAY, both the 4th and 5th districts have Constitution Party candidates now, as well as the Green in the 9th district.

I wish there were a Green in the 7th, too! :(


Run down of funny party preferences, some of which Meeker has covered:
  • "Neither Party" in the 18th
  • "Lower Taxes Party" in the 19th
  • We have another "Progressive Dem" in the 22nd, following Williams' example I guess.
  • "Republican (GOP) Party" in the 28th
  • Aforementioned "Independent Dem." in the 31st
  • "(R) Problemfixer Party" in the 36th
  • "Conservative Party" in the 38th--no Republican filed here as of yet, I wonder if this is technically their candidate? lol
  • "GOP Party" in the 40th
  • "Happiness Party" in the 40th
  • "Green Party" in the 40th--not supposed to be funny, but the only Green (or Libertarian or Constitution for that matter) that I see running for the legislature

And of course a ton of "Prefers Independent Party" folks, lol. They really need to fix this part, IMO...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 10, 2010, 07:00:21 PM
Man, it is going to be weird if no Republican files for our 27th LD race...

I didn't realize Chris Hurst lives way out in the Snoqualmie National Forest.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 10, 2010, 07:49:39 PM
Still no Republicans in the 7th congressional district.

Not a single Republican running in the 11th, 34th, 37th, or 43rd legislative districts.

lol Seattle.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lunar on June 10, 2010, 08:45:33 PM
Anyone know how strongly Palin is going to stick by whats his face?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 10, 2010, 08:55:25 PM
Anyone know how strongly Palin is going to stick by whats his face?

I hear rumorz (they're spelled with a "z"because they're potentially even less credible than the "s" kind) that her people called to ask Didier to drop out...but he filed anyway, so that should be fun.  Obviously she'll be conspicuously absent.

No idea why she put her money on such an obvious losing bet, anyway


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lunar on June 10, 2010, 09:01:46 PM
Anyone know how strongly Palin is going to stick by whats his face?

I hear rumorz (they're spelled with a "z"because they're potentially even less credible than the "s" kind) that her people called to ask Didier to drop out...but he filed anyway, so that should be fun.  Obviously she'll be conspicuously absent.

No idea why she put her money on such an obvious losing bet, anyway

She's a bizarre one.  It pisses me off how many political reporters interpret her 20 House "targets" as something strategic, when anyone who got her actual target emails, as *cough*, I may have, knows that they were clearly identified as just the Democratic incumbents occupying McCain districts.  Yet, months later, I'm still reading stories from Politico, the source where I first read this information, talking about the calculation in these targets!   Hello, you were the people who pointed out her calculations being non-calculative?

And, of course, there's a lot of strife over her endorsement of that ex-governor who's involves some B's, R's, A's N's, D's and T's who is pretty much the OPPOSITE of everything that Sarah Palin's family values base is obsessed with.  He appointed some of those judges that legalized gay marriage in Iowa, and did other socially moderate things, but, (1) he was pretty much to be the next governor of Iowa at the time of her endorsement and (2) his family values opponent was an ally of Huckabee.  However, if Palin did have aims for 2012, would her winning coalition of caucus-goers be those who went for what's-his-face that's governor, or what's-his-face with the Dutch name that ended up losing?  My feeling is he latter.  Just like her endorsement of Fiorina.  She has this weird policy of being strategic, but not TOO strategic,  with her endorsements, which pretty much aligns with the fact that 95% of her interactions with the world are via Facebook or Twitter.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 10, 2010, 09:58:51 PM
Still no Republicans in the 7th congressional district.

Not a single Republican running in the 11th, 34th, 37th, or 43rd legislative districts.

lol Seattle.

Or the 46th.

Also none in the 22nd yet but a Lacey City Councilman should get in tomorrow.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 10, 2010, 10:14:34 PM
So far, no Democrats in:

4
8
9
12
13
16

No Republicans in:

11
22
27
34
37
43
46


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 10, 2010, 10:38:10 PM
There was a Democrat representing the 16th as recently as last year. Kind of sad.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 10, 2010, 10:39:47 PM
There was a Democrat representing the 16th as recently as last year. Kind of sad.

Grant was always an anomaly.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 10, 2010, 10:43:29 PM
There was a Democrat representing the 16th as recently as last year. Kind of sad.

Grant was always an anomaly.

Well sure but we can't even find a candidate now. Oh well.

Unrelated but it looks like most of the "Prefers Democrat Party" folks have corrected themselves.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 11, 2010, 01:06:45 AM
Diane Tebelius is also back for another go at things. She's running against Ross Hunter in the 48th.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 11, 2010, 12:37:58 PM
Dr. Mohammad "(The) Zombie" Said has filed for U.S. Senate as Prefers Centrist Party


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 11, 2010, 01:44:19 PM
JESSICAAA SMEALL WHAT WHY SDAFDASFDSAFDAS

YES!!!!!!!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 11, 2010, 03:10:01 PM
Wow, there are now 9 candidates for the open seat in the 40th LD.

We have a candidate from the "Bull Moose Party" in the 13th.

Also, the Democrat dropped out in the 15th, so you can add that district to the "No Democrats running" list. Carol Moser is running again the 8th--she did relatively well in 2008 considering the district. Not sure why she's wasting her effort this year, but...

Updated:
So far, no Democrats in:

4
9
12
13
15
16

No Republicans in:

11
27
34
37
43
46


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 11, 2010, 06:03:22 PM
A "Bryan Baird" has filed to run as an independent in WA-3. Rofl. After SC I can't help but wonder if he's a Republican plant. It would be a clever way to get both Herrera and Castillo to the general.

Robin Adair is also making a comeback in WA-8! ;)

Two Democrats are now running in the 15th LD.

In the 16th, we have a R vs C race so far... We had Grant run against a C back in the day, too!

The 22nd has candidates for the "Profile Democrat" and "Demo" parties. Fascinating...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 11, 2010, 08:15:32 PM
Sounds like the SoS won't let Bryan Baird on the ballot because he's too young to serve, lol.
 
Will Baker has filed to run for Senate! Candidate #15. He's running as a Reform Party candidate again. rofl.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lunar on June 11, 2010, 08:18:24 PM
A "Bryan Baird" has filed to run as an independent in WA-3. Rofl. After SC I can't help but wonder if he's a Republican plant. It would be a clever way to get both Herrera and Castillo to the general.

REJECTED.   Apparently you need to be 25 years old now to be in Congress?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 11, 2010, 08:32:58 PM
We also have a "Tea Party" candidate in WA-4! In addition to a Constitution Party candidate. Fun.

No Republicans in WA-7.

Republicans finally filed in some of the Seattle LD races, though. One in the 11th, one in the 34th (as a member of the "Reluctantly Gop Party"), but 37, 43, and 46 are still thug-free.

Not a single Libertarian anywhere in sight.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 11, 2010, 09:03:10 PM
jessica smeall jessica smeall jessica smeall jessica smeall JESSICA SMEALL


!!!!

asdjfalk;.

Edit: JESSICA SMEALLLL

I invented your name.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 12, 2010, 12:01:58 AM
I'm mildly amused that retiring State Senator Rosa Franklin and former Pierce County Exec John Ladenburg are running against each other for a PCO seat in South Tacoma.  That may be the most high-profile pair in the county


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 12, 2010, 12:18:23 AM
I thought Smeall had moved to Arizona. Glad to see she's back to cause Alcon extensive pain and suffering though :D

Anyways, I county 64 candidates for federal office. That has to be a record.

Only major filing fail I noticed was the Democrats inability to find a candidate in the 6th LD against Kevin Parker. We hold the State Senate seat there and the other State House seat and won this House seat in 2006 before losing it two years ago.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on June 12, 2010, 12:30:07 PM
jessica smeall jessica smeall jessica smeall jessica smeall JESSICA SMEALL


!!!!

asdjfalk;.

Edit: JESSICA SMEALLLL

This thread is one giant in-joke, isn't it?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 13, 2010, 02:16:53 PM
Is anyone else getting Seattle-Mayor-2009-election vibes in the Republican primary this year?

"Oh, well, Nickels Rossi will definitely make it to the general anyway, I think I'll just for that McGinn Didier guy to see what happens."


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: King on June 13, 2010, 03:39:41 PM
Dear State of Washington,

Your politics is already confusing and strikes at the root of my values.

But your thread on the Atlas forum is long-winded and difficult to understand unless I'm already from Washington and already know everything that is going on in the state.  Or take the time to read all 129 pages dating back two years.

Sincerely,

Concerned citizen.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 13, 2010, 08:49:02 PM
Dear State of Washington,

Your politics is already confusing and strikes at the root of my values.

But your thread on the Atlas forum is long-winded and difficult to understand unless I'm already from Washington and already know everything that is going on in the state.  Or take the time to read all 129 pages dating back two years.

Sincerely,

Concerned citizen.

Just the way I like it. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 14, 2010, 12:29:46 AM
http://smeall.org/

Watch the video NOW


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 14, 2010, 02:36:22 AM
So I read (http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20100612/NEWS01/706129923&news01ad=1) that Didier won a straw poll at the GOP state convention 99 to 12.

This primary is going to be fun! :D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 14, 2010, 03:15:10 AM
http://smeall.org/

Watch the video NOW

This one (http://www.youtube.com/user/smeallfacts#p/a/u/0/B-yFiXO6zSA), which I saw a few days ago, is even better.  He's running against Darneille in the primary as another (D).  It's also hosted on Smeall's YouTube account and the voice at the end almost sounds like her.  My vote is for CONSPIRACY.

But, if there are more videos, the conspiracy is hilarious enough to stay.

They're in cahoots; that's definitely her voice at the end. But what's the master plan? I guess we'll just have to wait and find out.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 14, 2010, 10:43:58 PM
Interesting article.  That kind of reminds me of something I've been meaning to ask:  Who the hell is Jaime Herrera?  I know that she was appointed in 2007, but as far as I can tell she just appeared.  She seems young, conservative and photogenic.  Clark County is also not a bad part of the state to be from, politically.  Does she have any future potential?

All I know about her beyond that is that I once saw her throw some papers on TVW, and was told she was out of order.  It was awkward and staged, but pretty funny

She was an intern in the State House a few years ago (2004ish I think) and then was a low-level staff for McMorris Rodgers for a little while. When Curtis resigned over the prostitution scandal the local GOP thought she'd be a good pick for some reason. Bit of an odd decision and one that I suspect pissed off some old dogs down there, but nonetheless a smart decision.

In terms of her long-term viability (and referring back to that article), Zarelli and Orcutt actually agree with and support the type of people that showed up at that event. Herrera just humors those types. With the right fundraising she could be a good candidate on a larger scale (WA-03...)

Heh.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 14, 2010, 10:45:58 PM
Interesting article.  That kind of reminds me of something I've been meaning to ask:  Who the hell is Jaime Herrera?  I know that she was appointed in 2007, but as far as I can tell she just appeared.  She seems young, conservative and photogenic.  Clark County is also not a bad part of the state to be from, politically.  Does she have any future potential?

All I know about her beyond that is that I once saw her throw some papers on TVW, and was told she was out of order.  It was awkward and staged, but pretty funny

She was an intern in the State House a few years ago (2004ish I think) and then was a low-level staff for McMorris Rodgers for a little while. When Curtis resigned over the prostitution scandal the local GOP thought she'd be a good pick for some reason. Bit of an odd decision and one that I suspect pissed off some old dogs down there, but nonetheless a smart decision.

In terms of her long-term viability (and referring back to that article), Zarelli and Orcutt actually agree with and support the type of people that showed up at that event. Herrera just humors those types. With the right fundraising she could be a good candidate on a larger scale (WA-03...)

Heh.

Is she gonna beat Castillo? I want some primary polls. Castillo vs. Herrera and Didier vs. Rossi!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 16, 2010, 11:56:18 PM
This thread is boring. Anyone wanna do legislature predictions? I'll start with the Senate... *Indicates a pick-up.

6th: Chris Marr is a good fit for the district, and he won by almost 10% in 2006, but when I try to think of areas where the GOP will improve, suburban Spokane has to be one of the first places that pop into my mind. His opponent doesn't seem like a moron, either. I think this is a toss-up seat, but I have to guess, so I'll say the Republicans will pick it up.  Toss-up*

7th: Safe Republican hold, no explanation necessary. Kind of surprised the Democrats even have a candidate here.  Safe Republican.

8th: No Democrat running--this will be a R vs. R race.   Safe Republican.

13th: Unopposed Republican.   Safe Republican.

15th: Unopposed Republican. It is worth noting that this district probably won't exist in any recognizable form in 2012--Eastern Washington hasn't been growing enough to keep its half of the district. The 18th in Clark County has grown the most of any district in the entire state, and will need to shrink drastically. This district will likely shift almost completely into a suburban Vancouver district, eating up the 18th's left overs. But for this year...   Safe Republican.

21st: Shinn will have a Republican challenger this year, which he didn't in 2006. He won 62-38 in 2002. The district voted Obama almost 2-to-1.  Safe Democrat.

26th: Kilmer won 60-40 in 2006, but only 51-47 Obama.  Likley Democrat.

29th: State Representative Steve Conway running for open Senate seat. 64-34 Obama.  Safe Democrat.

30th: Eide won 60-40 in 2006 and Obama won the district 59-39.   Safe Democrat.

31st: Pam Roach, lolz. Only a 50-48 Obama district. Despite her crazy antics, she managed to win 53-47 in the massive 2006 Democratic landslide. Her district seems to love her. Still, it's hard for me to ignore her recent issues with the GOP...  Likely Republican.

32nd: Open Democratic seat. The Democrat won 68-32 in 2006 and the district voted 70-29 Obama.   Safe Democrat.

33rd: Keiser won 62-38 in 2006, and the district voted 64-35 Obama.   Safe Democrat.

34th: Unopposed Democrat in a Seattle/Vashon district.   Safe Democrat.

35th: Ugh, Sheldon. He always manages to win. And he's running against someone named Nancy "Grandma" Williams.   Safe "Democrat."

36th: Seattle--enough said.   Safe Democrat.

37th: Seattle. No Republican running--this will be a D vs. I race.   Safe Democrat.

38th: Berkey was unopposed in 2006. Her predecessor (Aaron Reardon) easily won in 2002, and Berkey is running against someone who prefers the "Conservative Party" (lol). 61-36 Obama district.   Safe Democrat.

41st:  One of the seemingly few interesting races here. Fred Jarrett left for a position in the King County government, and Randy Gordon was recently appointed to replace him. This is a special election, as the seat wouldn't normally be up until 2012. The Republican opponent, Litzow, got 49% in 2008 for an open representative seat. An impressive performance considering it was 2008. The district voted 64-35 Obama. This one strikes me as a toss-up, but given Litzow's strong 2008 performance, what should be a decent year for Republicans, and the fact that he's running against an appointee, I can see the Republicans picking this one up.   Toss-up*

42nd: Open Republican seat. Representative Doug Ericksen is running. A 54-44 Obama district, but this is definitely an area that should a swing to the Republicans. They also have a better candidate.   Likely Republican.

43rd: Unopposed Democrat in Seattle.  Safe Democrat.

44th: Hobbes running for re-election. Only won 52-48 in 2006 against Dave Schmidt, who I imagine will be the Republican candidate again (he is one of two Republicans running). A 56-42 Obama district. Hobbes is supposedly a moderate and has a serious primary challenge from another Democrat. A toss-up that, if I must guess, will be a Republican pick-up.  Toss-up*

45th: Incumbent Democrat Oemig is running with a Republican challenge from Andy Hill. Oemig won 54-46 in 2006, and the district voted 61-38 Obama. This one will be close, but for now I think Oemig will barely cling on.   Toss-up

46th: Unopposed Democrat in Seattle.  Safe Democrat.

47th: Incumbent Democrat Kauffman is running; she won 52-48 in 2006. A 56-43 Obama district. Will definitely be a top Republican target. Fain is the likely Republican challenger and I see him winning.  Lean Republican*

48th: Turncoat Tom! He won 54-46 in 2006. I think he'll hang on.  Lean Democrat

So I'm predicting four Republican pick-ups. These seats were 17-6 D in 2006. Throwing in the special election in the 41st, I'm predicting 14-10 D this year. Not up are 13 Ds and 12 Rs, leaving the Senate with a 27-22 Democratic majority.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 17, 2010, 12:35:54 AM
I've been meaning to do this but haven't had the time. I'll do the State House tomorrow/comment on your Senate ones.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 19, 2010, 06:33:16 PM
We're waiting, Meeker!

Looking over my predictions, I was probably a bit liberal with my use of "safe" and would bump a few down to likely, but meh.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lunar on June 19, 2010, 06:40:37 PM
http://smeall.org/

Watch the video NOW

Wait, who is this woman, and does she suffer some sort of mental retardation?  I feel like I should refrain from commenting until I know the backstory. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 19, 2010, 07:39:05 PM
http://smeall.org/

Watch the video NOW

Wait, who is this woman, and does she suffer some sort of mental retardation?  I feel like I should refrain from commenting until I know the backstory. 

Nope, feel free to mock.

And I will do State House tonight for realz.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 20, 2010, 03:47:17 AM
State House

1st District: Both seats in this district are open after the retirements of Al O'Brien and Mark Ericks. Position 1 is a fight on the Democratic side between Derek Stanford, a telecommunications administrator, and Vince DeMiero, a high school journalism teacher. There are three Republicans running but only one, Boeing electrical engineer Dennis Richter, has raised any money (and he's raised less than $1.5k). Stanford has the edge over DeMiero in fundraising (25k vs. 9k) and endorsements. There's a very small chance there could be a D vs D race if the vote splits just right. Likely Democrat.

Position 2 has two Democrats running as well but here only one, organized labor lobbyist Louis Moscoso, is legitimate. The sole Republican is a small business owner named Heidi Munson who's raised about 5k and hails from the Tea Party side of things. As with Position 1 the Republicans could've made this into a race with a better candidate. Likely Democrat.

2nd District: Position 1 is a race between incumbent Republican Jim McCune and former Democratic legislator Marilyn Rasmussen, last seen inexplicably losing re-election to her State Senate seat in 2008. Rasmussen is a 2nd District institution having first been elected in the 1980's, but it looks like voters here have grown tired of her (and recent population growth has brought in a lot of new voters who don't know of Rasmussen's long history here). She's also not very good at campaigning. McCune's not in any real danger. Likely Republican.

Position 2 is a fascinating R vs. R contest. Sort of moderate and former Democrat Tom Campbell was briefly running for Congress and while that was happening J.T. Wilcox of the Wilcox dairy farm empire declared his intention to run for the vacant seat. Campbell eventually decided he'd prefer to run for re-election but Wilcox refused to bow out. Both have raised significant amounts of money (Campbell 75k and Wilcox 84k) and this race is getting nasty. It's tough to say what'll happen but I'd probably give Campbell an edge. Safe Republican.

3rd District: Position 1 is an open seat due to the retirement of Alex Wood. Democrat Andy Billig, owner of the minor league Spokane Indians baseball team, will win big over minor opposition from two other Democrats and a Republican. Safe Democrat.

Timm Ormsby will be easily re-elected for Position 2. Safe Democrat.

4th District: Incumbents Larry Crouse and Matt Shea are both unopposed in this very Republican district. Safe Republican and Safe Republican.

5th District: Position 1 pits incumbent Republican Jay Rodne against attorney/real estate broker Gregory Scott. Rodne's fundraising thus far is laughable for an incumbent at only 14k. Rodne's well liked though and given the current political climate he'll probably survive. Likely Republican.

Meanwhile for Position 2, Republican Glenn Anderson barely survived re-election in 2008. Former T-Mobile executive Dean Willard is mounting a strong challenge and has almost doubled Anderson's fundraising totals. 2008 nominee David Spring is also running on the Democratic side. Willard should make it to the general and make this a fairly competitive race. Lean Republican.

6th District: Democrats failed to find a challenger to freshman Republican Kevin Parker for Position 1. It's probably just as well though as Parker's raised a mind-boggling 125k already. Watch for this guy in the future; he's a rising star in the party. Safe Republican.

Freshman Democrat John Driscoll is facing a challenge from the man he beat in 2008 for Position 2, former state representative John Ahern. Before Ahern can take on Driscoll though he'll need to beat non-profit executive Shelly O'Quinn. That won't be easy as O'Quinn has raised twice as much money and is in general a better candidate. I'm not really sure who will make it out of that fight, but this is going to be one of the key battlegrounds for control of the State House no matter which one wins. Toss-up*.

7th District: Incumbent Republicans Shelly Short and Joel Kretz are both unopposed. Safe Republican and Safe Republican.

8th District: Position 1 is a rematch from 2008 between freshman Republican Brad Klippert and former Richland city councilwoman Carol Moser. Klippert is a weird dude and his fundraising sucks but I don't see how Moser can beat him this time if she couldn't two years ago. Safe Republican.

Larry Haler is unopposed for Position 2. Safe Republican.

9th District: Susan Fagan, first elected in a 2009 special election, is unopposed for Position 1. Safe Republican.

Joe Schmick faces minor opposition from crazy dude Glen Stockwell who filed as a Republican but ran as a Democrat in the aforementioned 2009 special election. Schmick will win easily. Safe Republican.

10th District: In another recruitment failure for the Democrats, incumbent Republican Norma Smith is unopposed for Position 1 in this Obama-voting district. Safe Republican.

In Position 2 Republican Barbara Bailey faces a challenge from one Democrat, state park ranger Tom Riggs. Riggs seems like a cool guy but he doesn't look like a strong enough candidate for a district like this in a year like this. Bailey's also raised a lot of money (57k) and Riggs has raised none. Safe Republican.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 20, 2010, 03:48:10 AM
11th District: Incumbent Democrats Zach Hudgins and Bob Hasegawa both face minor challengers of various party affiliations. Safe Democrat and Safe Democrat.

12th District: Cary Condotta, a Ron Paul fan before it was cool, is unopposed for Position 1. Safe Republican.

No Democrats filed for Position 2. Republican Mike Armstrong fared surprisingly poorly against an intra-party challenger in 2008. He's got another one this year in Stehekin small business owner Cliff Courtney. This may be an interesting gauge of support between establishment Republicans (Armstrong) and Tea Party types (Courtney). I'll give Armstrong the edge for now but given his 2008 performance he may be in real danger. Safe Republican.

13th District: Republican incumbent Judy Warnick is unopposed for Position 1 while Bill Hinkle faces an amusing but non-threatening challenge for Position 2 from Anthony (El Tigrero) Novack of the Bull Moose Party. Safe Republican and Safe Republican.

14th District: For Position 1 freshman Republican Norm Johnson is facing a very viable challenge from another Republican in Michele Strobel, the Director of the Selah Chamber of Commerce. Not quite sure what Johnson has done to deserve such a challenge but this looks like another establishment vs. Tea Party situation. Attorney Scott Brumback is running as a Democrat but he's raised no money and doesn't have a website. This one may go to an R v R general. Safe Republican.

Incumbent Charles Ross is unopposed for Position 2. Safe Republican.

15th District: Bruce Chandler will easily beat Democrat Paul Spencer, an engineer, in the Position 1 race. Safe Republican.

David Taylor, appointed in 2009 to fill a vacancy in Position 2, has somehow managed to raise less than $2000. Taylor is also dumb as rocks and this district voted for Obama. Despite all that I still don't see how Taylor loses to his only opponent, 15th LD Democratic Chair Tom Silva. Safe Republican.

16th District: Position 1 features a curious race between incumbent Republican Maureen Walsh and Constitution Party challenger Brenda High. A Google search of Brenda High yields some interesting results but I'm not sure if it's the same woman or not. Safe Republican.

Terry Nealey is running unopposed for Position 2. A big change from his 2008 loss to Bill Grant and his hard-fought victory over Laura Grant in 2009. Safe Republican.

17th District: Incumbent Democrat Tim Probst is facing Republican small business owner Brian Peck in the race for Position 1. Probst's fundraising has been good but Peck's hasn't been shabby either. Probst is one of the most vulnerable incumbents. This race is another top battleground. Toss-up.

Deb Wallace, after briefly running for Congress, decided not to run for re-election for Position 2. The serious Democrat in the race is middle school teacher Monica Stonier (weirdo Martin Hash is also running). Paul Harris is the only Republican running and I can't find much info about him but his fundraising is on par with Stonier's. This is going to be another very close race. Toss-up.*

18th District: Jaime Hererra is running for Congress which leaves Position 1 open. There are seven candidates in this race but I'm not going to bother listing them because political consultant Ann Rivers is going to win big. The only Democrat in the race, high school shop teacher Dennis Kampe, will face her in the general. Safe Republican.

Incumbent Republican Ed Orcutt is running unopposed for Position 2. Safe Republican.

19th District: Incumbent Democrat Dean Takko is being challenged by farm worker Kurt Swanson for Position 1. Takko won't have an issues winning. Safe Democrat.

Brian Blake, the other Democratic incumbent in the district, should have no problems defeating Tim Suntinen of the Lower Taxes Party for Position 2. Safe Democrat.

20th District: House Republican Leader Richard DeBolt is being challenged by Democratic small business owner Corinne Tobeck. DeBolt has a huge fundraising advantage and this district is solidly Republican. Safe Republican.

Incumbent Republican Gary Alexander is running unopposed for Position 2. Safe Republican.

21st District: Republican Ed Borey, a business executive, is trying to take out incumbent Democrat Mary Helen Roberts for Position 1. Borey's doing remarkably well in fundraising and Roberts not so much. This is a solidly Democratic district though and if Democrats start getting into trouble here then things are going to go very badly statewide. Safe Democratic.

Marko Liias, Democratic incumbent for Position 2, may be in for a closer than normal race as well. Educator and community activist Elizabeth Scott has posted good fundraising numbers. She may be too far to the right to make this district competitive though. A coffee shop owner is also running as a Republican as is someone from the SeniorSide Party (neither will make it out of the primary). Anyways, the seat is another one to put on the watch list. Safe Democratic.

That's all I can get through for tonight. I'll try to do the rest tomorrow.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 21, 2010, 04:46:34 PM
22nd District: Brendan Williams, one of the most liberal members of the State House, is retiring from Position 1. Seven candidates have filed for the seat with Democrats Stew Henderson, a businessman, and Chris Reykdal, a Tumwater school boardmember who's been endorsed by Williams, leading the field. Also running is Tumwater city councilwoman Judi Hoefling and three local Democratic activists. My guess is Henderson comes out on top in the primary but I wouldn't be surprised to see Reykdal ahead. Lacey City Councilman Jason Hearn is running on the Republican side and will draw enough voters to foil a D vs. D general election. He won't be competitive in November though. Safe Democrat.

Incumbent Democrat Sam Hunt has a marijuana activist and a conservative-sounding independent running against him for Position 2. I suspect the independent will make the general off the backs of the Republicans in the district. Hunt's not in any real danger from either of them. Safe Democrat.

23rd District: For Position 1 Sherry Appleton looks to be in some trouble from her Republican challenger Peter DeBoer, a Kingston port commissioner. They're pretty evenly matched in fundraising (24k vs. 22k) and DeBoer is a legit, non-crazy candidate. This is another seat that'll determine how bad the Democratic loses are going to be this year. Lean Democrat.

Christine Rolfes, the Democratic incumbent, has two Republican challengers for Position 2. Neither has raised any money and I can't find any information on them. Rolfes has a ton of money in the bank. Safe Democrat.

24th District: Republican Realtor Dan Gase is running against incumbent Democrat Kevin Van De Wege for Position 1. Gase has raised a little money but he doesn't seem to have a terribly serious campaign up and running, plus a Tea Party candidate named Craig Durgan is running as a package deal with another guy for Position 2 and may end up being the one making it to November. Van De Wege will probably be fine but this one should be added to the watch list. Likely Democrat.

Position 2 is open due to the retirement of House Majority Leader Lynn Kessler. Two Democrats and two Republicans have filed but none have raised more than 8k. Clallam County Commissioner Steve Tharinger has the advantage over Montesano school boardmember Jack Dwyer for the Democrats while Port Angeles Port Commissioner Jim McEntire will likely win out for the Republicans over Larry Carter, the other half of the Tea Party pair. I'd say Tharinger is slightly favored in a general against McEntire but this race isn't really developed enough to make a judgement call. Toss-up.

25th District: For Position 1 freshman Republican Bruce Dammeier won't have any problems dispatching organized labor leader John Thompson. Dammeier is a prodigious fundraiser and managed to win this Obama-voting district in 2008 over a better Democratic candidate than he has now. He'll be a future headache for Washington State Democrats. Safe Republican.

Incumbent Democrat Dawn Morrell has drawn five challengers for her Position 2 seat but only one, Republican Hans Zeiger, has raised any money - and he's raised a lot (50k). Zeiger, a non-profit executive and author, is from a prominent area family and is being touted as the next Republican wunderkind. Morrell is a darling of organized labor and won't go down without a fight. This one's going to get bloody. Toss-up.

26th District: Position 1 is a contest between freshman Republican Jan Angel and Democrat Sumner Schoenike, a physician. Both are relatively matched in fundraising right now (46k to 40k) but I'm not fully convinced Schoenike is going to make the best candidate. Angel also managed to pick this seat up in 2008. Schoenike may be able to make a race out of this but probably not. Likely Republican.

Firefighter and Navy veteran Doug Richards is going to give Democratic incumbent Larry Seaquist a run for his money for Position 2. Richards' fundraising hasn't been that great thus far but he looks like a near perfect candidate for this seat outside of that. Seaquist has also never been the best on the campaign trail. If Richards can get some money money flowing in then this will turn into a real horse race. Lean Democrat.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 23, 2010, 06:09:07 PM
Here is a map I made and forgot to post. I think you guys might find it interesting.

It shows the growth of legislative districts in Washington from 2000 to 2009. More specifically, red districts have grown more slowly than the state as a whole and will need to expand during the next redistricting, while those in green have grown faster and will need to shrink. The color scale shows how many people will be have to be removed from or added to the district.

The 2nd district is a whopping 28,000 over the ideal district population. However, Pierce County clearly has lots of slow growing districts to eat up that surplus. Other districts that grew by over 20,000 were the 5th (Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend, Snoqualmie, Maple Valley) and the 18th (exurban Clark County).

The slowest growing district was the 3rd--inner Spokane--which is going to need to add 15,000 people to it. The 6th will also need to add about 1,000. The 4th has around 4,000 extra--not nearly enough to make up for the slack of the other two Spokane districts. It will be interesting to see how slow growth in Spokane will ripple elsewhere. Spokane losing much of its 9th district portion, and the 9th expanding into Columbia and Walla Walla counties, seems likely. Both the 3rd and 6th districts will probably get more Republican as they are forced to expand into the suburbs. The 3rd is of course solid Dem and can handle it. It could be significant in a swing district like the 6th, though.

Overall, Eastern Washington will lose approximately 1/2 of a legislative district--likely by moving the 15th fully into the Vancouver area.

Seattle is also going to lose a portion of a district, obviously. I can only speculate, but the Seattle portion of the 11th district has about the number of people Seattle will need to be cut out, so they could keep their all/mostly Seattle districts intact by moving the 11th fulling into the suburbs south of Seattle. The 48th was surprising to me--it's almost 10,000 under at the moment. Not what I would have expected from the Eastside, though when you think about it, that particular district is built out and doesn't have any high growth areas like the others. In general, we should see an eastward movement of the Puget Sound districts.

The peninsula is interesting as well... The 19th is going to have to move more towards Vancouver, with the 24th taking the 19th's northern portions. They may also have to move into Lewis County.

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 25, 2010, 07:00:11 PM
That's very interesting bgwah; I don't really have much commentary beyond what you've said though. Could you do the same for Congressional districts?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 25, 2010, 08:27:23 PM
I'd just like to note that I wasn't quite right about the 15th. While it will have to move into Clark County more, Eastern Washington overall will lose more like a sixth of a district, not half. The biggest differences in Eastern Washington will be in the Tri-Cities area, though. I will be very interested to see what they do with 9th and 16th districts.

As for congressional districts, yeah those are available. I've already written about it before and don't have much new to add. The numbers, though:

2009 population
1 - 733,872
2 - 756,036
3 - 781,408
4 - 752,412
5 - 716,284
6 - 703,712
7 - 697,136
8 - 800,321
9 - 727,020

9 districts-Ideal district population (2009): 740,911
1 - 733,872 (-7,040)
2 - 756,036 (15,125)
3 - 781,408 (40,497)
4 - 752,412 (11,500)
5 - 716,284 (-24,627)
6 - 703,712 (-37,199)
7 - 697,136 (-43,775)
8 - 800,321 (59,410)
9 - 727,020 (-13,891)

WA-3 will have cut out more Olympia--probably the most Democratic part of the district. WA-8 is growing quickly, but the 7th and 9th have deficits almost equal to the 8th's surplus, so I suspect we will see an eastward expansion of those districts into the 8th's territory. We'll WA-1 expand into WA-2 territory a bit. That would probably mean going into Everett a bit, which might technically make the district a little more Republican, but the difference will probably be negligible.


10 districts-Ideal district population (2009): 666,820
  1 - 733,872 (67,051)
  2 - 756,036 (89,216)
  3 - 781,408 (114,588)
  4 - 752,412 (85,591)
  5 - 716,284 (49,464)
  6 - 703,712 (36,892)
  7 - 697,136 (30,316)
  8 - 800,321 (133,501)
  9 - 727,020 (60,200)
10 -            0 (-666,820)

WA-3 will change completely--probably into a Vancouver-Yakima district, with WA-10 being Olympia/Peninsula/Coast. That makes the race more interesting this year. Herrera really couldn't ask for a more perfect district for her. Castillo and Heck however, would find themselves in a different district if they win this year. If Heck loses in November, he will have a brand new open district to run for in 2012.

WA-8 would also change drastically, losing most of its Pierce County portion making it a lot more Democratic.


Under both scenarios are the same two notable changes. That is, WA-3 gets more Republican and WA-8 gets more Democratic.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Torie on June 25, 2010, 09:49:38 PM
I would be surprised if WA-3 does not go GOP this year, if that is the Vancouver district, in which event the Pubbie might be around a long time then.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on June 25, 2010, 09:51:49 PM
Is there any possibility you (or someone) could do the same kind of analysis for Oregon?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 25, 2010, 10:02:56 PM
I would be surprised if WA-3 does not go GOP this year, if that is the Vancouver district, in which event the Pubbie might be around a long time then.

It has a slight R lean, and will get more Republican in 2012, so I also expect it to go R--though I'm not sure what will happen if Castillo wins the R nomination.

A new Olympia/Coast/Peninsula congressional district will definitely be Democratic, though... And Reichert is in danger of losing the most Republican parts of his district. We'll probably see Washington go from 6-3 D to 5-4 D in November, and 7-3 D in the long term. Reichert hasn't ever had a serious challenger, and while he is becoming entrenched, redistricting + a formidable opponent certainly has the potential to end him.

I'm tempted to play around with Dave's redistricting app, unfortunately their new population estimates are totally useless. They say the 8th district has 700K instead of 800K. It really is pointless to try using it to make 2010 maps when some of the district's populations are a whole 100,000 off. :( WA's counties are just too big for it to work well.

Is there any possibility you (or someone) could do the same kind of analysis for Oregon?

I don't really know enough about Oregon... My gut is telling me a new seat would benefit the Republicans, though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Torie on June 25, 2010, 10:04:28 PM
I wonder how the Portland burbs are trending these days.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on June 25, 2010, 10:20:07 PM
Also, does anyone here have any 'Patty Murray for Senate' sigs that I can use in mine? 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Torie on June 25, 2010, 10:24:55 PM
Also, does anyone here have any 'Patty Murray for Senate' sigs that I can use in mine? 

Is Murray as dumb as I think she is?  I mean I consider her the second dumbest senator in the Senate, after Bunning.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 25, 2010, 10:41:25 PM
I never really got the impression that she's dumb, but mostly I've only seen her speak on non-political issues.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Torie on June 25, 2010, 10:44:23 PM
I never really got the impression that she's dumb, but mostly I've only seen her speak on non-political issues.

What does she talk about? Tennis shoes? What is her favorite brand?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 26, 2010, 01:53:03 AM
Murray's by no means a policy wonk like Cantwell but I'm not sure where you get the idea that she's stupid, Torie.

As for WA-03... heh. I'll have a lot to say November 3rd.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Saxwsylvania on June 26, 2010, 01:57:40 AM
She looks stupid.  Of course, that's no indication of non-intelligence, but it doesn't help.

Fun fact: Strom Thurmond once groped Murray in an elevator and asked if she was married.  Apparently he didn't realize she was a senator.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 26, 2010, 02:12:21 AM
The Progressive Caucus at the State Democratic Convention (which is going on right now) voted to endorse some dude named Bob Burr in the Senate race as a protest over Patty Murray's failure to support publicly financed campaigns.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 26, 2010, 02:56:36 AM
The Progressive Caucus at the State Democratic Convention (which is going on right now) voted to endorse some dude named Bob Burr in the Senate race as a protest over Patty Murray's failure to support publicly financed campaigns.

Oh gawd, I heard him speak at a county convention recently. He is bonkers. He seemed nice, though. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 01, 2010, 01:56:03 AM
27th District State House candidate Laurie Jinkins is trying to commit ELECTORAL FRAUD. Her campaign is trying to STEAL THIS ELECTION.

http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/2010/06/30/an-endorsement-is-retracted/#comments


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 01, 2010, 09:50:37 AM
Finally a real top-two primary poll. SurveyUSA:

Murray (D): 37%
Rossi (R): 33%
Didier (R): 5%
Akers (R): 3%
Burr (D): 1%
Goodspaceguy (D): 1%
Said (Centrist): 1%
All others: 0%
Undecided: 19%

So far no Didier-mentum


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on July 01, 2010, 10:10:20 AM
Are you going to do the rest of the house seats, Meeker? I'd like to see some of the upcoming districts.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on July 01, 2010, 05:32:22 PM
Finally a real top-two primary poll. SurveyUSA:

Murray (D): 37%
Rossi (R): 33%
Didier (R): 5%
Akers (R): 3%
Burr (D): 1%
Goodspaceguy (D): 1%
Said (Centrist): 1%
All others: 0%
Undecided: 19%

So far no Didier-mentum

Weird, I though Didier's strength was much stronger than that. Then again often the most vocal movements are those that find the least traction.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 01, 2010, 07:06:18 PM
Are you going to do the rest of the house seats, Meeker? I'd like to see some of the upcoming districts.

Yeah, I got distracted with work and have been on vacation for the past few days. I may finish it tonight.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 02, 2010, 02:34:42 PM
Latest Member: Jaime Herrera Watch

lol wut?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 02, 2010, 11:42:56 PM
Latest Member: Jaime Herrera Watch

lol wut?

http://jaimeherrerawatch.blogspot.com/

I guess they're watching to see if we post something they have mentioned yet?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 03, 2010, 02:18:44 AM
Dear Mr. Jamie Herrera Watch,

Your blog makes you seem completely out of your mind crazy.  Welcome to the Atlas!!!

Love,
The Atlas


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on July 03, 2010, 10:52:37 AM
What kind of female name is Jaime?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 03, 2010, 11:36:47 AM
What kind of female name is Jaime?

It's a more common (http://www.placesnamed.com/j/a/jamie.asp) name for females than for males.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Torie on July 03, 2010, 06:28:33 PM
What kind of female name is Jaime?

It's a more common (http://www.placesnamed.com/j/a/jamie.asp) name for females than for males.

Unless of course you are Hispanic. My best friend in business school was from Mexico City. His name was Jaime. Jaime by the way is now very rich, very rich, running some business empire for one of the richest Mexicans in Mexico. We used to study together. He did the heavy math; I did the heavy writing, and together, we just aced everything.  :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lunar on July 03, 2010, 06:48:39 PM
Unless of course you are Hispanic.

I've met Latino men named Jaime too.

I don't know anything about Jaime Herrera, but what if her parents gave her the anglicized "Jaime" [Jahy-mee] as her name?  

A glance a her website shows that she pronounces it Jamie instead of "High-ma" or whatevsky


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Torie on July 03, 2010, 06:51:44 PM
My Mexican friend pronounced it high-may.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lunar on July 03, 2010, 06:53:48 PM
My Mexican friend pronounced it high-may.

Yeah perhaps "high-may" would have been better than "high-me"

There's a Latino doorman at my office's building who's name is pronounced with the hard J (Jay-mee), I wonder if his real name is High-may?  I'm not very good at a Spanish accent, but as someone who worked for four years checking residents ID cards, I really prefer to call people by their preferred name rather than the name they tell white people to simplify things.  Oh well.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 04, 2010, 02:55:57 AM
Something totally random: Not a single Republican filed for any of the county offices in Pacific County. What a great place.

http://wei.secstate.wa.gov/pacific/elections/Pages/CandidateFilings.aspx


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: MaxQue on July 04, 2010, 04:26:59 AM
Something totally random: Not a single Republican filed for any of the county offices in Pacific County. What a great place.

http://wei.secstate.wa.gov/pacific/elections/Pages/CandidateFilings.aspx

Well, you can't declare wars like Republicans do, if you are Pacific....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on July 05, 2010, 03:31:16 PM
What kind of female name is Jaime?

It's a more common (http://www.placesnamed.com/j/a/jamie.asp) name for females than for males.

That's Jamie, not Jaime.

http://www.placesnamed.com/j/a/jaime.asp


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 08, 2010, 03:17:23 AM
What kind of female name is Jaime?

It's a more common (http://www.placesnamed.com/j/a/jamie.asp) name for females than for males.

That's Jamie, not Jaime.

http://www.placesnamed.com/j/a/jaime.asp

Oops, true (how long have I been mis-spelling her name?), but still only 2/3 of Jaimes are guys.  It's no Dana, let alone a Courtney.

I voter-canvassed a female Clarence the other day.  Now that has no business being a unisex name.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 08, 2010, 01:12:39 PM
A group named "Washington State Political Polls" has published "polls" on all the federal races in the state. They conduct these "polls" by mailing out about 10,000 response requests and then they tabulate the results based off the 1,000 or so that they get back (people are directed to a website where they fill out the survey with their unique login code). Due to the methodology one shouldn't put too much stock into these but I've seen them floating around and news outlets might be silly enough to publish them:

Senate
Murray (D): 33%
Didier (R): 17%
Rossi (R): 16%
Akers (R): 7%
All others: <1%
Undecided: 24%

2nd District
John Koster (R): 28%
Rick Larsen (D): 18%
John Carmack (R): 13%
Larry Kalb (D): 7%
Diana McGinness (D): 6%
Undecided: 29%

3rd District
Denny Heck (D): 30%
Jaime Herrera (R): 18%
David Hedrick (R): 17%
David Castillo (R): 9%
Cheryl Crist (D): 4%
Norma Jean Stevens (I): 1%
Undecided: 21%

8th District
Dave Reichert (R): 26%
Tom Cramer (D): 15%
Suzan DelBene (D): 13%
Tim Dillon (R): 4%
All others: <1%
Undecided: 37%

9th District
Adam Smith (D): 30%
Dick Muri (R): 28%
James Postma (R): 7%
Roy Olson (G, though they say he's an I): 1%
Undecided: 34%

They polled the other districts too if you want to have a look (and some laughs): http://washingtonstatepolls.com


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 08, 2010, 05:34:30 PM
The WA-07 poll is especially hilarious. Apparently Republicans are on par with Democrats there now, and despite the fact that no Republican filed, McDermott is only at 24%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 12, 2010, 02:40:08 PM
Rep. Geoff Simpson (D-Covington) has been charged with assault again in a new domestic violence incident involving his ex-wife. The charges look kind of weak like the ones in 2008 but I don't think it's going to matter. Stick a fork in Simpson.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 15, 2010, 12:15:04 PM
Herrera has an ad up. In a shocking twist she says nothing of substance at all.

http://www.jaimeherrera.com/videos.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 15, 2010, 08:22:02 PM
Fundraising in WA-03

Heck: $280k raised + $100k of his own, $800k+ CoH
Herrera: $180k raised, $200k CoH
Castillo: $75k raised, unknown CoH

DelBene raised $378k and has a little more than $1 million CoH. No word on Reichert as far as I've heard.

The Senate numbers are all over the news if one is curious about those.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 15, 2010, 08:35:08 PM
Fundraising in WA-03

Heck: $280k raised + $100k of his own, $800k+ CoH
Herrera: $180k raised, $200k CoH
Castillo: $75k raised, unknown CoH

DelBene raised $378k and has a little more than $1 million CoH. No word on Reichert as far as I've heard.

The Senate numbers are all over the news if one is curious about those.

How in the heck (pun very intended) is Herrera supposed to have a chance against Heck in November? He's outraised her like 3-1 so far.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 16, 2010, 12:44:14 AM
Fundraising in WA-03

Heck: $280k raised + $100k of his own, $800k+ CoH
Herrera: $180k raised, $200k CoH
Castillo: $75k raised, unknown CoH

DelBene raised $378k and has a little more than $1 million CoH. No word on Reichert as far as I've heard.

The Senate numbers are all over the news if one is curious about those.

How in the heck (pun very intended) is Herrera supposed to have a chance against Heck in November? He's outraised her like 3-1 so far.

I suspect outside groups will pick up some of the slack. But Heck will get some outside help too so she'll still be at a net disadvantage on TV.

Heck's definitely beating Herrera right now in terms of what's going on in the district and I suspect that will continue through to November. If Herrera wins this it's going to be because of the national climate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 16, 2010, 01:15:42 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37K5Q3yTlH0&feature=player_embedded

LOL! Just LOL.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ajc0918 on July 16, 2010, 01:19:48 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37K5Q3yTlH0&feature=player_embedded

LOL! Just LOL.

WTF is this. lmao.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Mercenary on July 16, 2010, 11:00:04 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37K5Q3yTlH0&feature=player_embedded

LOL! Just LOL.

That ad is absolutely horrible. How do they come up with this?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 16, 2010, 11:20:30 AM
:D

They've managed to outdo the "Christine Gregoire is a dirty diaper" mailing.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 17, 2010, 06:07:33 PM
http://www.clintdidier.org/index.php

Awesome intro!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on July 23, 2010, 01:01:06 AM
LOL at Dino Rossi --

Rossi wins spot on CREW’s “Crooked Candidates of 2010"

Quote
Each year Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) puts together its annual “Most Corrupt Members of Congress” report a bipartisan list of the House and Senate’s 15 most ethically challenged members. But this year CREW is also producing a report on the most Crooked Candidates of 2010, and look who made the initial list: Dino Rossi!
http://horsesass.org/?p=28556 (http://horsesass.org/?p=28556)



Rossi claim of Murray unemployment flip flop... flops

Quote
Republican Dino Rossi's campaign staff thought they'd caught Sen. Patty Murray in an embarrassing flip-flop last night on the issue of extending unemployment benefits.

After the Senate voted on the extension, Rossi issued a gotcha press release accusing Murray of a "flip" on whether the $34 billion, six-month benefits extension needed to be paid for with cuts to other areas of the budget.

Rossi claimed that Murray had voted for an amendment by Sen. Tom Coburn which would have required that the benefits be offset with cuts to other areas of the budget.

That was based on early media reports by Politico and the Associated Press, which it turns out had mixed up that vote with another Coburn amendment.

The disputed amendment, which needed two-thirds vote, failed. But it would indeed have been a reversal of Murray's longstanding position if she'd voted for it. She has noted benefits have long been treated by both parties as "emergency" measures which don't need to be offset with budget cuts.

Rossi's camp issued a statement crowing about the alleged flip and sarcastically thanking Murray for "heeding his advice" on the issue he's been hammering for weeks.

"It's great that Patty Murray is finally doing her job as a United States Senator, but it shouldn't take an election to remind her that she answers to the families here in Washington State, and not the Democratic Leadership in Washington, D.C.," Rossi's statement said.

Murray immediately responded that Rossi had got it wrong and that Murray voted for the other Coburn amendment related to budget transparency. (That amendment failed too.)

"In his haste to claim credit for something he had no involvement in whatsoever, Dino Rossi is again showing how little he understands the bills before the Senate, and worse, how little he cares about the truth," said Julie Edwards, Murray's campaign spokeswoman, in a statement.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2012421934_rossi_claim_of_murray_flip_flo.html (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2012421934_rossi_claim_of_murray_flip_flo.html)







Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 23, 2010, 02:17:08 AM
^ lol

Anyway, SUSA says Obama's approval in WA is at 43% now... Seems a little low to me, but worrisome if true.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: SPC on July 23, 2010, 05:49:10 PM
Hopefully by some miracle Clint Didier (http://www.clintdidier.org/) gets second. Rasmussen gives him the same chances as Rossi to defeat Murray.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on July 23, 2010, 08:36:02 PM
This Dino Rossi character seems like such a pest. After trying to become governor and failing twice, he tries his next power grab by telling Murray how to do her job?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 23, 2010, 10:22:48 PM
The Seattle Times endorsed Heck and Castillo. Not that anyone in the 3rd District reads it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 24, 2010, 10:22:36 PM
""We've got to get rid of this 'protecting the weak.' If we keep the weak alive all the time it eats up the strong, and then our economy will never come back" - Clint Didier

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 24, 2010, 10:26:38 PM
I got a big fold out mailer from Paul Akers today. He's run the most visible campaign thus far and yet will get last of the three. Poor guy.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on July 25, 2010, 12:59:52 AM
I got to go doorbelling with Jeff Bjornstad and one other person for seven hours today in Mill Creek. It was a rather interesting experience, and it sounds like Patty Murray has some pretty good ads coming up in the next few weeks. Also, our organization is running laps around Dino Rossi, which gives me a lot of warm fuzzies inside. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Tender Branson on July 25, 2010, 01:16:06 AM
Sen. Murray`s approval rating is the lowest ever @ SurveyUSA (July 19):

41% Approve
54% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=20b0410b-6b61-4b44-9d80-d7825b331164


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 25, 2010, 01:24:43 AM
Yea, the response I hear at the door on Murray is one you'd expect in a closely fought statewide race and not one you might expect from a three-term incumbent. She's in for a tough one but she does have an extensive field team in place and good folks running her ad campaign so I think we'll end up alright once all is said and done.

Also for any Washingtonians about to get their ballots and not following judicial races, Stan Rumbaugh and Charlie Wiggins are the good guys running for Supreme Court. Unless you like old BIAW/libertarian nuts on the Court.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 25, 2010, 01:33:35 AM
Is there any reason Patty Murray's net approval would've swung 18 points in less than a month? :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Tender Branson on July 25, 2010, 01:44:06 AM
Is there any reason Patty Murray's net approval would've swung 18 points in less than a month? :P

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37K5Q3yTlH0&feature=player_embedded

;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 25, 2010, 11:29:42 AM
The Columbian continues to fulfill their mission of being to the right of Das Reich by endorsing Herrera and Castillo to advance to November.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 25, 2010, 07:24:13 PM
Is there any reason Patty Murray's net approval would've swung 18 points in less than a month? :P

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37K5Q3yTlH0&feature=player_embedded

;)

Of course. How could I have already forgotten? ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: SPC on July 25, 2010, 10:59:54 PM
""We've got to get rid of this 'protecting the weak.' If we keep the weak alive all the time it eats up the strong, and then our economy will never come back" - Clint Didier

()

Source?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 25, 2010, 11:47:37 PM
""We've got to get rid of this 'protecting the weak.' If we keep the weak alive all the time it eats up the strong, and then our economy will never come back" - Clint Didier

()

Source?

http://silencedmajority.blogs.com/silenced_majority_portal/2010/07/wa-tea-party-candidate-believes-keeping-the-weak-alive-eats-up-the-strong.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: SPC on July 25, 2010, 11:54:21 PM
I don't like his choice of words, but people must realize that the Medicare and Social Security poni schemes aren't going to last forever.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 26, 2010, 06:28:34 AM
Clint Didier wants the death panels to decide if grandma can live or not!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on July 26, 2010, 07:45:13 AM
http://silencedmajority.blogs.com/silenced_majority_portal/2010/07/wa-tea-party-candidate-believes-keeping-the-weak-alive-eats-up-the-strong.html

Silenced Majority Portal. Like the New York Times, but better.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 26, 2010, 06:36:15 PM
I got the quote from a front page article of the Seattle Times.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2012416668_didier22m.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on July 27, 2010, 11:40:17 PM
Quote
The Dino Rossi campaign has tried  to make an issue out of “earmarks”—a nasty word for budget line items. Rossi’s rival, incumbent U.S. Sen. Patty Murray is ranked 9th in securing earmarks.

It turns out the Washington Council of Police and Sheriffs thinks earmarks are an issue too—in a good way.

WACOPS endorsed Sen. Murray today.

Perhaps the group—which represents 4500 law enforcement officials statewide—likes that Murray’s knack at getting Federal money lined up for Washington nets stuff like this:

    •Securing needed funding for training and equipment for police forces and sheriffs’ offices across the state ($1.2 million)

    •Establishing a national center based in Pierce County to fight methamphetamine use and distribution. ($900,000)

    •Washington State Methamphetamine Initiative, with a particular focus on Yakima, Spokane, the Tri-Cities and the I-5 corridor. ($1.3 million)

    •Providing resources for prevention programs focused on keeping on at-risk youth out of gangs ($1.4 million)
http://www.publicola.net/2010/07/26/murray-wins-cops-endorsement-maybe-those-earmarks-arent-such-a-bad-thing-after-all/ (http://www.publicola.net/2010/07/26/murray-wins-cops-endorsement-maybe-those-earmarks-arent-such-a-bad-thing-after-all/)


Rossi lied that Murray is third biggest earmarker in the Senate:
Quote
“There couldn’t be more of a contrast between the candidates,” Rossi told a GOP crowd in Tacoma last week. “I’m running against a candidate who’s number three in earmarks. You know what, this is going to be a stark change,” he said. Rossi framed the election as a referendum on “the purpose and role of government … should it be a limited government or an overreaching government? Every time they raise your taxes, they’re taking money from the job creating, wealth creating sector of society and putting it into government for temporary jobs.”
http://www.publicola.net/2010/06/02/rossi-makes-issue-out-of-murrays-earmarks/

A database of congressional earmarks can be found here --
http://www.opensecrets.org/earmarks/index.php (http://www.opensecrets.org/earmarks/index.php)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 28, 2010, 06:26:44 AM
Running against earmarks in a state that depends heavily on federal money (hello, Boeing) seems like a bad idea to me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on July 28, 2010, 07:44:36 PM
Running against earmarks in a state that depends heavily on federal money (hello, Boeing) seems like a bad idea to me.

It strikes me as a strange attack as well and questionable at best in a general election.  It is not difficult for her to flip such an attack around and turn it into a strength, which is exactly what she has done in the below ad in which real Boeing workers praise Sen. Murray for saving their jobs:

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/07/murray-boeing-senate-washingto.html (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/07/murray-boeing-senate-washingto.html)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: frihetsivrare on July 29, 2010, 05:26:46 PM

I will do the 39th, 40th and 42nd districts, as they are the districts in the area where I live.

39th (most of Skagit, east Whatcom, east Snohomish Counties) : solid Republican in both positions, not worth explaining in detail

40th (south Bellingham, north and west Skagit County, San Juan County)  Position 1: Representative Dave Quall, a Democrat, is retiring this year.  There are 8 candidates running to replace him.  The probable Republican to advance past the primary is Mike Newman.  The Democrats are Tom Pasma and Justin van Dyk.  Doug Revelle is running under the Happiness Party label.  lean Republican
Position 2: Incumbent Jeff Morris will probably face Republican John Swapp in the general election.  Green Party member Howard Pellett is also running in the primary.  Tossup

42nd (Whatcom County not covered by the 40th and 39th)  Position 1: Incumbent representative Doug Eriksen is retiring to run for the Senate.  The Democrats in the primary are Al Jensen and Whatcom County businessman Richard May.  The Republicans are Jason Overstreet and Michael Smith, teacher at the high school I attended.  Farmer Craig Mayberry is running as an Independent.  Tossup
Position 2: Republican Vincent Buys is challenging incumbent Democrat Kelli Linville.  lean Democrat


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 30, 2010, 01:34:21 AM
The Seattle Times endorsement in WA-03 may actually be a little more important than initially thought - the Chronicle, which is the biggest newspaper in Lewis County, published it today. The Longview Daily News also endorsed Heck and Castillo today which means that apart from the Olympian - which hasn't endorsed in the race yet - every major newspaper has gone for Castillo and all but the Columbian have gone for Heck. The most important take away from all this is that the chances of a Castillo upset are looking better.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 30, 2010, 01:47:31 AM
Meeker -- Could you elaborate on the Castillo vs. Herrera dynamic for the uninitiated?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 30, 2010, 02:19:52 AM
There are several dimensions to it. The first is regional - Herrera is from Ridgefield and now Camas and is going to dominate Clark and probably Cowlitz as well. Castillo was raised in Centralia and now lives in Olympia. He should beat her in both Lewis and Thurston. Herrera does have a reasonable presence in Lewis but Castillo is definitely in control there (DeBolt and Castillo are old friends and almost all of the Republican establishment in the area is behind Castillo). Herrera has no presence in Thurston at all. She doesn't even have signs up. Most of the voters I talk to think Castillo is the only Republican in the race. Pacific and Wahkiakum are also in the district but I've got no idea how they'll vote (and it doesn't really matter due to their size).

The second is ideological. Castillo is a proud conservative who doesn't mince words about it but he isn't quite to the crazy nutcase level we've seen out of some of the Tea Party candidates this year (there's a third Republican in the race who fits that bill - more on him later). Herrera is trying to portray herself as a bipartisan, independent-minded type while simultaneously sticking to standard Republican policy positions. She speaks like a College Republican - nothing but bland talking points that don't really say anything unique. I definitely wouldn't describe her as a moderate in terms of ideology but she doesn't talk like a rabid conservative. Her rhetoric is a lot like Rossi or Gorton.

The third is personality. Castillo is energetic, personable, friendly and engaging. He has a lot of original ideas that, while a little nutty in my opinion, are nonetheless actual policy proposals. He really seems to know what he's talking about and, yes, he really does seem to care about the issues. His heart's in the right place. With Herrera, as cruel as it sounds, she's just not that smart - and nowhere near Castillo's level. As I mentioned before, she has no unique policy solutions and just talks in standard rhetoric. It's safe and is similar to past Washington Republicans who have done well so I don't necessarily think it's a bad strategy. However, if I were a Republican in that district I have no idea why I would vote for Herrera and not Castillo. He's smart, articulate, passionate and just an all around better candidate in a lot of ways.

I should also mention that David Hedrick, who became famous for being on the town hall screamers at a Brian Baird event last summer, is running to the right of both of these candidates. He proudly proclaims in his voters' pamphlet statement that he's "from the Tea Party". I can't figure out how well he'll do. His supporters are certainly the most enthusiastic, especially with online commenting, but I just don't know how well that'll translate into votes. On the one hand you'd think he might steal from Castillo's right but on the other he's from the southern part of the district so he might eat away at Herrera's totals down there.

All in all the regional dynamic is probably the one we're going to end up seeing most on primary day. The ideological dynamic may come in to play but I don't know how closely Republicans are following the race to know the difference between the two in that sense. And the personality dynamic would only be noticed if you'd spent extensive time observing or interviewing the candidates - such as with newspaper editorial boards which is why they're all endorsing Castillo.

My current county-by-county prediction has Herrera coming in a few points ahead of Castillo but by a much closer margin than I think people would expect. The wildcards here are 1) the Castillo margins in Thurston/Lewis and the Herrera margin in Clark and 2) how well Hedrick does. With no polling in the race there's no way to tell any of that until election day.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 30, 2010, 02:23:40 AM
It may also be worth mentioning that Herrera has started running some cable spots.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 30, 2010, 05:31:43 AM
Thanks Meeker -- that makes a lot of sense.

Voters' pamphlet came out today, and I hadn't had a chance to look at the online one.  On the U.S. Senate side, Mike Latimer is a crazy motherf@#ker.  Mike the Mover's ballot statement talks about boobs.  Clint Didier's ballsily puts down farm subsidies (man I don't like him!).  Schalk Leonard's talks unironically about wiping away Lady Liberty's tears.  Will Baker's contains the sentence "Martin Luther King Jr. was a black man and a very good public speaker" and alludes to the poorly-received 2001 Robert Redford drama The Last Castle.  Over in the 8th Congressional District, Robin Adair's ballot statement repeatedly refers to Google as "Goggle."

This is why everyone should vote!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 31, 2010, 04:31:32 PM
So there's a 23 year old with a serious shot in the 34th district... Hmph.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 02, 2010, 12:31:26 AM
I got my ballot today.

So far:

Senate: Murray (D)
5th LD Rep 1: Hoover (D)
5th LD Rep 2: Willard (D)
Supreme Court #1: Rumbaugh
Supreme Court #6: Wiggins

Not sure about the 8th CD. Reichert and DelBene will win, obviously, so I think I might vote for Cramer (D) just for fun. He seems like a generic leftist protest vote. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Mercenary on August 02, 2010, 10:07:37 AM
I got mine on friday. I need to research the judges since I know nothing about them.
Its always annoying since it seems good information is hard to find on how they would rule on things, or I just suck at finding it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 02, 2010, 11:21:41 AM
http://johnsonsinjustice.com/

I kind of have a man crush on Stan Rumbaugh.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Mercenary on August 02, 2010, 03:17:33 PM
Well that helped me make my decision on one race. :D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Mercenary on August 04, 2010, 02:53:13 PM
Quote
Sanders, is a socially conservative libertarian whose libertarianism generally manifests in occasional strong anti-government sentiment.

Sounds like me. :D

Johnson and Sanders it is.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 05, 2010, 01:00:52 AM
Rumbaugh is on the cover of The Stranger this week.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 05, 2010, 01:28:21 AM
Rumbaugh is on the cover of The Stranger this week.

I like the Stranger 'n' all, but I doubt that's a good sign if he wants to win. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 05, 2010, 01:43:02 AM
Rumbaugh is on the cover of The Stranger this week.

I like the Stranger 'n' all, but I doubt that's a good sign if he wants to win. :P

Sadly yes. But he's putting up a good fight that progressives and liberals should be proud of.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 05, 2010, 02:23:45 AM
Rumbaugh is on the cover of The Stranger this week.

I like the Stranger 'n' all, but I doubt that's a good sign if he wants to win. :P

Sadly yes. But he's putting up a good fight that progressives and liberals should be proud of.

It has always seemed strange to me that we allow so many Supreme Court races to be decided in the primary. The Republicans--with Didier vs. Rossi and Herrera vs. Castillo--are sure to have their turnout boosted by their competitive primaries. Oh well.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 05, 2010, 11:15:54 AM
Rumbaugh is on the cover of The Stranger this week.

I like the Stranger 'n' all, but I doubt that's a good sign if he wants to win. :P

Sadly yes. But he's putting up a good fight that progressives and liberals should be proud of.

It has always seemed strange to me that we allow so many Supreme Court races to be decided in the primary. The Republicans--with Didier vs. Rossi and Herrera vs. Castillo--are sure to have their turnout boosted by their competitive primaries. Oh well.

Yeah, the judicial election laws are pretty awful. They've been put together through a series of compromises over the year and the current messed up system is the combined result of all those deals.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 06, 2010, 11:32:09 AM
The Seattle Times has surprised everyone by endorsing Microsoft executive Suzan DelBene (D) and Expedia senior manager Tim Dillon (R) in the 8th District. I'm curious 1) why they did it a full week after ballots were mailed and 2) whether this mean they'll endorse DelBene in the general over Reichert.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 06, 2010, 01:15:39 PM
The Seattle Times has surprised everyone by endorsing Microsoft executive Suzan DelBene (D) and Expedia senior manager Tim Dillon (R) in the 8th District. I'm curious 1) why they did it a full week after ballots were mailed and 2) whether this mean they'll endorse DelBene in the general over Reichert.

Whoa. Who could forget their front page slam piece against Burner in October 2008? I'm very surprised. DelBene has been raising quite a bit of money under the radar. It would be a huge upset if she won.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 06, 2010, 04:29:47 PM
Though really, Reichert is gonna win anyway. We can't forget the the Times strategically endorses Democrats when it doesn't matter to make themselves look moderate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Torie on August 10, 2010, 10:25:43 AM
Here (http://www.columbian.com/news/2010/aug/10/new-polls-validity-panned-by-experts/) is a story about that crap poll for WA-3 and stuff. Enjoy.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 10, 2010, 01:47:28 PM
Here (http://www.columbian.com/news/2010/aug/10/new-polls-validity-panned-by-experts/) is a story about that crap poll for WA-3 and stuff. Enjoy.

As if we need an article to know that a poll which says Seattle is more Republican than Eastern Washington is garbage. ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: frihetsivrare on August 10, 2010, 03:17:48 PM
I have my ballot as well.

My votes:
U.S. Senate: Clint Didier (R)
U.S. House: John Carmack (R)
42nd LD Senate: Doug Ericksen (R)
42nd LD House Position 1: Richard May (D)
Position 2: Vincent Buys (R)
Whatcom County Council: Tony Larson (Non-partisan)
Supreme Court: Richard Sanders and Stan Rumbaugh (Non-partisan)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lunar on August 10, 2010, 09:39:05 PM
I don't read this thread 'cuz it scares me, but I enjoy how Rossi is racking up all those critical endorsements, y'know, Coburn & DeMint

I wish Illinois's primary wasn't held so early, so Kirk would have had to be a right-wing partisan for 6 more months...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 15, 2010, 06:37:03 PM
Something that just became apparent to me today that is worth mentioning: voters' pamphlets are not being issued statewide. The Secretary of State is not printing one for federal races and a number of counties aren't including federal races in their local pamphlets. Snohomish County isn't printing anything this year.

I think this is going to significantly impact lesser known and fringe candidates. Washington State typically gives a larger share of the vote to the random nobodies than other states because every candidate at a minimum gets a paragraph that voters can choose to read when they're marking their ballot. A lot of people vote solely based on what's in those pamphlets and now they're going to have no basis for making a decision in some races.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 17, 2010, 02:53:00 AM
I've said a lot upthread about the dynamics on the Republican side of WA-03 and don't really have much to add. It's all about margins in Clark, Lewis and Thurston and who Hedrick takes votes from (if anyone at all). It's also been difficult for me to get a good handle on what the various sides are doing. I know Herrera has had a TV ad running on cable for a while now and has some robocalls out. I've got no idea what Castillo has been up to. The lack of voters' guide that I mentioned a bit earlier will hurt Hedrick and Crist to the benefit of Herrera/Castillo and Heck. I expect Crist to do worse in every county compared to her 2008 results.

Anyways, here's my guess on the numbers tomorrow:

Heck: 38%
Herrera: 24%
Castillo: 19%
Crist: 9%
Hedrick: 8%
Stevens: 2%

Though I may have been thinking about this whole thing too long to actually have any sort of clear idea what's going on.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 17, 2010, 02:59:55 AM
^ So you're expecting the Democratic candidates to get 47%? That seems kind of high to me... I would expect more like 43%.

For Senate, I'm thinking something along the lines of:
45% Murray
35% Rossi
12% Didiers
5% Akers
3% Other

But I'm probably completely wrong, so don't laugh at me in 24 hours. :P I wonder how many (if any) counties Didier will win? I think he could win Franklin, and maybe some of the surrounding counties (Lincoln? I dunno...). Skamania and the NE trio (Stevens, Pend Oreille, and Ferry) always seem to vote anti-establishment in primaries so they're ones to watch. Though I imagine a split R vote will keep Skamania and Pend Oreille as Murray counties. I could still see Didier beating Rossi in them, maybe...

I'm actually kind of excited for WA-8... Obviously Reichert and Delbene will advance, but given Reichert's recent antics and the Times' endorsements of that other Republican, I'll be interested to see how much he gets.

The eight candidate 40th LD race should also be fun. ;D And I look forward to watching Alcon's candidate lose to Jessica Smeall and Stevennick's dad! >:D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 17, 2010, 03:09:00 AM
I might shave a point or two off Heck but I think he's going to do pretty well. He won't fall below 35%.

Though I may have a completely warped perception of things.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 17, 2010, 12:19:46 PM
Hmmm... I guess I will go ahead and do a WA-03 prediction as well (though living in Olympia probably gives me a bit of a bias compared to the rest of the district):
Heck: 41%
Herrera: 23%
Castillo: 21%
Hedrick: 10%
Crist: 4%
Stevens: 1%

Though it is nearly impossible to predict what will happen with the republicans, personally I am hoping for a Hedrick upset, just for the hilarity of the situation for the GOP.

Senate:
Murray: 46%
Rossi: 28%
Didiers: 19%
Akers: 4%
Others: 3%

Never underestimate the number of right-wing crazies in the Republican party here in Washington, I was even tempted to give a larger share to Didiers.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: SPC on August 17, 2010, 06:59:16 PM
Prediction (based off of my general election senate model for a four-way race) :
Murray 47%
Rossi 31%
Didier 14%
Akers 6%
Others 2% (just a guess)

If Murray gets above 50% does she still have to run in the general election?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 17, 2010, 08:10:49 PM
If Murray gets above 50% does she still have to run in the general election?

Yes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 17, 2010, 10:38:04 PM
Just to keep the more local stuff confined to this thread:

The 31st LD Sen race is looking to be R vs R so far, with Roach and Richardson. Ugh. One of the house races is also close to R vs R but not quite... And Hurst's "Independent Dem." thing is apparently genius--he has 58% of the vote right now while Democrats elsewhere in the district are going down in flames.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 17, 2010, 11:46:08 PM
Ugh, why can't thurston county get its act together? CD 3 is going to be quite off until a report from there comes in. Even King has reported some numbers. I guess we will just have to wait for tomorrow.


By the way, anyone else blown away by Crist's over performance and Castillo's under performance so far?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 18, 2010, 12:27:15 AM
Ugh, why can't thurston county get its act together? CD 3 is going to be quite off until a report from there comes in. Even King has reported some numbers. I guess we will just have to wait for tomorrow.


By the way, anyone else blown away by Crist's over performance and Castillo's under performance so far?

Haha, yeah. The Senate race has been kind of boring and expected. Castillo's failure in WA-3 has definitely been the most interesting part of the election. He barely beat Crist!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 18, 2010, 01:08:29 PM
Americans for Prosperity is already out with an attack ad on Heck: http://www.politico.com/singletitlevideo.html?bcpid=88099111001&bctid=587476337001

It's a $118,000 buy on cable and network TV for the next week.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 18, 2010, 06:32:19 PM
I'll hold off on a complete analysis of the State Legislature results until more of the ballots are in, but the numbers in thus far look quite miserable for the Democrats. I'll also finally finish up my State House predictions within the next two weeks.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 18, 2010, 06:45:01 PM
I'll hold off on a complete analysis of the State Legislature results until more of the ballots are in, but the numbers in thus far look quite miserable for the Democrats. I'll also finally finish up my State House predictions within the next two weeks.

Eh, we knew they were going to lose seats, it was just hard to know where. This helps.

Notable incumbents who we can now see are in danger:
Rep. Linville (D-42) behind her GOP opponent at 49%
Sen. Marr (D-6) behind his GOP opponent at 49%
Sen. Oemig (D-45) behind his GOP opponent at 49%
Sen. Gordon (D-41) behind his GOP opponent at 49.6%

The Democrats should be able to hold both houses, albeit with smaller majorities.

I haven't see any incumbents who look completely dead, except for Geoff Simpson (but we already knew that, didn't we?), but I could be missing someone.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 18, 2010, 06:54:52 PM
I'm pretty sure Kauffman, also in the 47th, is gone (she's at 45%). John Driscoll in the 6th is only pulling 41%. Dawn Morrell in the 25th is also at 41% though there's a fringe Democrat getting 5%.

Then there's a whole slew of incumbents or open seats that are in real danger, a number of which should not be on the competitive list. But again, we should wait for final results before drawing too many conclusions.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 18, 2010, 09:18:20 PM
Random note: State Senator Jean Berkey is losing to a more liberal primary challenger named Nick Harper 35% to 33%. A third candidate who "Prefers Conservative Party" is at 31%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 19, 2010, 01:26:19 PM
3rd CD update: David Hedrick has endorsed Herrera and Cheryl Crist has endorsed Heck. David Castillo says he isn't ready to make an endorsement.

In related news, the combined Democratic % yesterday went down in Clark, Cowlitz, Skamania and Wahkiakum but went up in Thurston. Lewis and Pacific aren't reporting anything new until tomorrow.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on August 19, 2010, 01:41:37 PM
Jamie Pedersen is adorable. :) Pocket gay.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: SPC on August 19, 2010, 01:49:12 PM
Seeing how Rasmussen typically tends to inflate a candidate's numbers after they win the primary (See Rand Paul, Joe Sestak, Sharron Angle, Linda McMahon, Elaine Marshall, Lee Fisher, etc.), their new poll can't be good news for Rossi. If he's down by 4 points with a post-primary boost, I don't see how he's going to reverse that by election day.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 19, 2010, 05:47:38 PM
Jamie Pedersen is adorable. :) Pocket gay.

I just saw the names of his kids. Yikes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on August 20, 2010, 08:35:43 PM
Seeing how Rasmussen typically tends to inflate a candidate's numbers after they win the primary (See Rand Paul, Joe Sestak, Sharron Angle, Linda McMahon, Elaine Marshall, Lee Fisher, etc.), their new poll can't be good news for Rossi. If he's down by 4 points with a post-primary boost, I don't see how he's going to reverse that by election day.

Rossi is not going to win this race unless Murray makes significant mistakes in the general election.  He is in a precarious position.  To co-opt Clint Didier's support, he will have to move right, yet this will alienate him from the centrist voters he needs in areas like Bellevue/Redmond/Mercer Island.  If Didier's supporters sit out, he is done.  If centrist voters go to Murray (who has no comparable challenger pulling her to the far left) he is done. The perception of Rossi as shifty has already sunk into statewide consciousness after two failed runs for governor.  People will sense if he is dog whistling to the Tea Party.

http://www.publicola.net/2010/08/20/didier-wont-endorse-rossi-unless-rossi-meets-three-demands/ (http://www.publicola.net/2010/08/20/didier-wont-endorse-rossi-unless-rossi-meets-three-demands/)

Furthermore, Murray has co-opted a large portion of Rossi's true base -- business -- through her appropriations work.  I suspect industries in Washington state do not much appreciate his railing against earmarks.

To win, Rossi will need to run up big wins in Clark and Spokane Counties (a margin of around 10%), pull off at least a narrow win in Pierce and hope turnout in King County is poor since he is going to get pounded there.  I don't see all this happening.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Torie on August 21, 2010, 05:31:11 PM
Are you gonna claim credit for Laurie coming out on top Ben?  Come on, be a man and just do it!  You know you're that good right?  :)

Of course you guys did F up in one way. A few of you should have voted  for the Pubbie so that he came in second. That way, the general election would be in the bag, since it appears the district is not a Pubbie friendly zone. But alas, it isn't in the bag with another Dem still alive and kicking, so now you need to do it all over again to put the Fey guy away. Do I have this right?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lunar on August 22, 2010, 10:53:29 AM
What is that footballer being such a twat?  Rossi's not exactly a liberal


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 23, 2010, 09:48:16 PM
King County finally released their legislative district breakdown today.

First, the map by candidate. Lot's of primary oddness here. For any curious non-Washingtonians who may be reading, Dino Rossi was a State Senator from the 5th LD.

()

And now, the party map. The Democratic colors in Seattle look a bit more normal now, and lean Republican areas like the 31st LD are back to blue without splitting their vote up. Republicans are leading the 45th, and even though it is a tiny margin, it would appear to be the main anomaly on the map given what I would have expected... Although it was only 51% D in 2008, so I guess I'm misremembering. The 41st and 48th were Democrat by small-ish margins, but Rossi did very well in this area in 2004 (he won at least one of them IIRC).

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 24, 2010, 02:11:21 AM
Are you gonna claim credit for Laurie coming out on top Ben?  Come on, be a man and just do it!  You know you're that good right?  :)

Of course you guys did F up in one way. A few of you should have voted  for the Pubbie so that he came in second. That way, the general election would be in the bag, since it appears the district is not a Pubbie friendly zone. But alas, it isn't in the bag with another Dem still alive and kicking, so now you need to do it all over again to put the Fey guy away. Do I have this right?

Well...aside from the ridiculous amounts of infused money and volunteers, sure, all me. (But it was my idea not to waste time pissing off North Tacoma, where people were already starting to tell us not to come to their houses anymore.)  Apparently the strategy of talking voters within an inch of their patience was effective.  We just should have switched to Ken Nichols in the past week :(  And, yes, we do, now with Republicans in play, while trying to minimize the "L" word.  Not an especially major asset in parts of the district, weirdly enough mostly the darkest blue on the map.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 29, 2010, 02:44:31 AM
Alcon, would it be possible to do precinct maps from some of the counties Didier did well in? Perhaps Benton (especially), Franklin, Adams, and maybe Grant?

Also, I would be quite interested in the results of the WA-02 primary. Koster won the more Democratic counties of Whatcom and Snohomish, but Larsen won the more Republican counties of Island and Skagit.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 29, 2010, 02:46:06 AM
Alcon, would it be possible to do precinct maps from some of the counties Didier did well in? Perhaps Benton (especially), Franklin, Adams, and maybe Grant?

Also, I would be quite interested in the results of the WA-02 primary. Koster won the more Democratic counties of Whatcom and Snohomish, but Larsen won the more Republican counties of Island and Skagit.

Kalb and McGinness certainly contributed to that in Whatcom! Koster got third place in a number of Bellingham precincts, and tied for fourth in one or two, hah.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 29, 2010, 02:50:47 AM
Alcon, would it be possible to do precinct maps from some of the counties Didier did well in? Perhaps Benton (especially), Franklin, Adams, and maybe Grant?

Also, I would be quite interested in the results of the WA-02 primary. Koster won the more Democratic counties of Whatcom and Snohomish, but Larsen won the more Republican counties of Island and Skagit.

At this point, I'd wager that the part of Snoho in WA-02 is probably more Republican than Skagit and quite possibly Island.  Whatcom was definitely unusually Republican in this primary, down the whole ballot, although with the caveat bgwah said.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 01, 2010, 11:27:44 PM
Quick and dirty State Leg round-up now that all the votes are in

State Senate
Safe D: 21st, 29th, 32nd, 33rd, 34th, 35th, 36th, 37th, 38th, 43rd, 46th
Likely D: 26th
Lean D: 48th
Toss-up: 30th, 41st, 44th
Lean R: 6th, 45th
Likely R: 47th
Safe R: 7th, 8th, 13th, 15th, 31st, 42nd

Projected Republican gains of 3-6 seats (7 needed for takeover)

State House
Safe D: 3rd #1, 3rd #2, 11th #1, 11th #2, 22nd #1, 22nd #2, 27th #1, 27th #2, 29th #1, 29th #2, 31st #2, 32nd #1, 32nd #2, 33rd #1, 33rd #2, 34th #1, 34th #2, 36th #1, 36th #2, 37th #1, 37th #2, 43rd #1, 43rd #2, 46th #1, 46th #2
Likely D: 19th #1, 19th #2, 21st #1, 23rd #2, 24th #1, 30th #1, 38th #2, 40th #1, 40th #2, 41st #2, 45th #2, 47th #2, 48th #1, 48th #2, 49th #1
Lean D: 21st #2, 23rd #1, 26th #2, 38th #1, 41st #1, 49th #2
Toss-up: 1st #1, 1st #2, 24th #2, 28th #1, 28th #2, 35th #1, 44th #1, 45th #1
Lean R: 17th #1, 35th #2, 42nd #2
Likely R: 6th #2, 17th #2, 25th #2, 30th #2, 42nd #1
Safe R: 2nd #1, 2nd #2, 4th #1, 4th #2, 5th #1, 5th #2, 6th #1, 7th #1, 7th #2, 8th #1, 8th #2, 9th #1, 9th #2, 10th #1, 10th #2, 12th #1, 12th #2, 13th #1, 13th #2, 14th #1, 14th #2, 15th #1, 15th #2, 16th #1, 16th #2, 18th #1, 18th #2, 20th #1, 20th #2, 25th #1, 26th #1, 31st #1, 39th #1, 39th #2, 44th #2, 47th #1

Projected Republican gains of 11-15 (14 needed for takeover)

So it looks like at this point the State House is in reach for the Republicans if most of the races fall their way. The Senate looks a little more difficult but still possible if everything falls into place. There's also the possibility of Sheldon flipping sides if the Republicans are only a seat away.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 02, 2010, 01:00:40 PM
I should add a disclaimer to the above that many of the endangered Democratic incumbents have mind-numbingly large amounts of money left to spend. For some extremes on the Senate side, Steve Hobbs in the 44th has 110k, Chris Marr in the 6th has 200k and Derek Kilmer in the 26th has more than 230k. For the House, John Driscoll in the 6th has 85k, Troy Kelley in 28th has 75k, Dawn Morrell in the 25th and John McCoy in the 38th each have 60k. Nearly all of the other endangered incumbents at least find themselves in a situation where they have more than enough to compete while their Republican opponent has at most 10-15k on hand. In some places the disparity is almost laughable - Fred Finn in the 35th has more than 25k left in the bank while his opponent has yet to file a PDC report.

So the big question here is whether the massive money dump coming from these incumbents in the next few weeks is going to really turn things around or whether the wave will make it all irrelevant. I guess we'll find out.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 02, 2010, 04:56:24 PM
Wow, how did the 6th LD Democrats get so much money?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 02, 2010, 06:15:20 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2012789159_monfort03m.html

Anyone else think Satterberg is going to run for AG in 2012?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 03, 2010, 10:49:51 AM
http://horsesass.org/?p=29502

I'm going to move the 25th District #2 to "Lean Republican"


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 03, 2010, 12:36:41 PM
Final numbers for the federal races:

Senate
Patty Murray (D): 46.2%
Dino Rossi (R): 33.3%
Clint Didier (R): 12.8%
Paul Akers (R): 2.6%
Assorted others: 5.1%

Second Congressional District
John Koster (R): 42.2%
Rick Laren (D): 42.0%
Diana McGinness (D): 6.0%
John Carmack (R): 5.5%
Larry Kalb (D): 4.4%

Third Congressional District
Denny Heck (D): 31.4%
Jaime Herrera (R): 27.8%
David Hedrick (R): 13.7%
David Castillo (R): 12.1%
Cheryl Crist (D): 11.2%
Norma Jean Stevens (I): 3.8%

Eighth Congressional District
Dave Reichert (R): 47.2%
Suzan DelBene (D): 26.9%
Tom Cramer (D): 9.5%
Ernest Huber (R): 5.8%
Tim Dillon (R): 5.1%
Assorted others: 5.5%

Combined party percentages
Senate: 49.9% R, 48.5% D, 1.6% I
2nd CD: 52.4% D, 47.6% R
3rd CD: 53.6% R, 42.6% D, 3.8% I
8th CD: 58.2% R, 39.6% D, 2.3% I


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on September 03, 2010, 01:34:08 PM
Final numbers for the federal races:

Senate
Patty Murray (D): 46.2%
Dino Rossi (R): 33.3%
Clint Didier (R): 12.8%
Paul Akers (R): 2.6%
Assorted others: 5.1%

Time for bgwah to update this page (https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=53&year=2010&f=0&off=3&elect=6).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 03, 2010, 08:58:29 PM
I have precinct results for all counties but King and Kitsap, if those are of interest to anyone.

Major cities:

Bellingham: 64-34 D
Edmonds: 57-42 D
Everett: 54-44 D
Kennewick: 28-71 R
Lakewood: 48-50 R
Marysville: 45-54 R
Olympia: 70-29 D
Richland: 33-66 R
Spokane: 50-48 D
Spokane Valley: 38-60 R
Tacoma: 60-38 D
Vancouver: 50-48 D
Yakima: 37-62 R

Completed CDs:

3rd: 45-53 R
4th: 30-68 R
5th: 38-60 R

Swings seem especially nasty in Hispanic areas.  Toppenish was over 3-to-1 Obama; in this primary, it was a tie.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 03, 2010, 09:10:14 PM
Detailed city stats.

Dem % underperformed Obama in 224 of 243 (92.2%) reporting municipalities.  Of those, only two, Toledo (+9.0%) and Asotin (+1.4%), cast over 500 votes.

Verifying my hypothesis earlier, the towns with the biggest Dem % fall mostly have something in common:

1. Mattawa: -28.9%
2. Toppenish: -25.5%
3. Harrah: -23.5%
4. George: -21.3%
5. Granger: -21.2%
6. Grandview: -20.7%
7. Mabton: -19.6%
8. Sunnyside: -19.2%
9. Royal City: -18.4%
10. Darrington: -15.4%

In all cities in the top nine, Hispanics make up the plurality of the population.

Alcon, would it be possible to do precinct maps from some of the counties Didier did well in? Perhaps Benton (especially), Franklin, Adams, and maybe Grant?

Also, I would be quite interested in the results of the WA-02 primary. Koster won the more Democratic counties of Whatcom and Snohomish, but Larsen won the more Republican counties of Island and Skagit.

I can try, but I'm not sure I can find mapping software for my new computer...MapWindow doesn't jive with Vista and our school computers don't allow installers.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Dgov on September 04, 2010, 02:15:26 AM
Doesn't Washington have a more Conservative Hispanic population than the nation as a whole?  I mean, the most Hispanic district is the Heavily Republican 4th, which is 25% Hispanic, a full four times as Hispanic as the next best, the 9th.  Also, since this is a primary, some Liberal-Leaning Hispanics might not have showed up to vote in protest.

But given all that, this is very good news indeed.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 04, 2010, 02:18:11 AM
Doesn't Washington have a more Conservative Hispanic population than the nation as a whole?  I mean, the most Hispanic district is the Heavily Republican 4th, which is 25% Hispanic, a full four times as Hispanic as the next best, the 9th.  Also, since this is a primary, some Liberal-Leaning Hispanics might not have showed up to vote in protest.

But given all that, this is very good news indeed.

Not really. They've only established themselves to such a large degree in the recent past, and turnout among them is very low, for obvious reasons (immigrants can't vote, immigrants have more children who can't vote). The more established Hispanic towns tend to lean pretty heavily towards the Democrats, in the generals at least. I don't really know enough to comment on primaries--perhaps Alcon has 2008 primary data on hand? :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 04, 2010, 11:06:44 AM
Was turnout in those towns also abnormally low? I'm just wondering whether people didn't show up or whether they switched sides.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Vepres on September 04, 2010, 04:29:43 PM
So, Cook has moved WA-02 into the "lean Democratic" category. Was that because of the primary results, or is there something else as well?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 04, 2010, 06:30:30 PM
So, Cook has moved WA-02 into the "lean Democratic" category. Was that because of the primary results, or is there something else as well?

I just wrote a big long post about WA-2, it might answer some of your questions, maybe. I think the primary was probably a factor (the total Democratic vote was still 52%, which is actually pretty close to what I would have expected), but there is of course recent polling, such as the poll thread where I posted this:

Republicans won most seats in Washington in 1994. Larsen came close to losing in 2002, as well.
So, wouldn't be surprising. No idea if this Koster guy is up to the task, of course.

Koster is certainly one of the better candidates the Republicans could have run, and isn't a sacrificial lamb like some of Larsen's other recent opponents. Koster has the possibility of a big win in the  suburban/rural Snohomish County portion of the district (where he is a county councilman), which may be the critical factor that just puts him over the top.

Enough time hasn't elapsed to come to any conclusions, but the last few elections seem to suggest that Island has moved fully into swing-county territory, and Skagit actually might be leaning towards the Democrats now. Maybe.

If Larsen wants to win, he'll need to do pretty decently in Everett and Bellingham to make up for the thrashing he will get in the rest of Snohomish and Whatcom counties.

I'm not really sure anybody actually likes Larsen that much... I was at the county convention, and Rick Larsen, a five-term incumbent, didn't even get endorsed. His campaign people were vicious monsters, to say the least, and were definitely driving people away IMO. It's what made me a supporter of McGinness & Kalb, at least. :P

Larsen did pathetically in my Bellingham precinct, getting something like 51%... To put that in perspective, the district was 87% Obama and 89% Approve on R-71. And it's not that Koster did well here, but that Larsen did horribly. Leftist fringe (the aforementioned McGinness and Kalb) candidates probably got over 30% of the total vote.

My gut is telling me Larsen will narrowly win still (a repeat of 2002 perhaps?), but I think this seat has definitely moved into toss-up territory, and I won't be surprised if Larsen loses.

Normally it wouldn't be a big deal, as it seems like the kind of district that would return to the Democrats fairly quickly after falling in a wave election... Especially with a pretty conservative guy like Koster (he is no Metcalf).

But re-districting will significantly alter the district--this is because it is likely we'll get a 10th seat here in Washington, and the 2nd district (along with the rest, really) will have to shrink quite a bit. I don't know exactly what they'll do, but Everett seems like the most likely portion of the district that may be cut out, and if that happens, the district gets significantly more Republican. I suppose it is also possible they would try to cut out suburban/rural portions of Snohomish County instead, or maybe something wacky like trying to cut out Island County, which may essentially break even or even make the district a little more Democratic, but this is all speculation on my part. Everett has been a key city in the district for a long time (basically its entire existence), so there may be historical reasons to try keeping it there.

Okay, I just wrote way more about WA-2 than anybody probably cared to read. Maybe RealisticIdealist will have something to add or correct, as he's a more permanent resident in the district than I am. ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 05, 2010, 12:23:19 AM
King County municipalities (King parts only):

Algona: 51-46 DEM
Auburn: 48-50 REP
Beaux Arts Village: 54-46 DEM
Black Diamond: 39-60 REP
Bellevue: 53-46 DEM
Bothell: 56-43 DEM
Burien: 61-37 DEM
Carnation: 59-40 DEM
Clyde Hill: 37-62 REP
Covington: 40-58 REP
Des Moines: 55-43 DEM
Duvall: 41-57 REP
Enumclaw: 43-55 REP
Federal Way: 50-49 DEM
Hunts Point: 30-70 REP
Issaquah: 50-48 DEM
Kenmore: 57-41 DEM
Kent: 50-48 DEM
Kirkland: 55-44 DEM
Lake Forest Park: 66-32 DEM
Maple Valley: 39-59 REP
Medina: 39-60 REP
Mercer Island: 57-43 DEM
Milton: 50-47 DEM
Newcastle: 49-50 REP
Normandy Park: 51-48 DEM
North Bend: 46-52 REP
Pacific: 47-51 REP
Redmond: 54-44 DEM
Renton: 56-43 DEM
Sammamish: 44-55 REP
SeaTac: 57-41 DEM
Seattle: 79-19 DEM
Shoreline: 65-33 DEM
Skykomish: 62-38 DEM
Snoqualmie: 42-56 REP
Tukwila: 63-35 DEM
Woodinville: 49-49 REP
Yarrow Point: 41-58 REP

Bgwah's precinct was a lowly 52-46 Democratic.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on September 05, 2010, 01:24:14 AM
wow what a dramatic shift from the 2008 presidential election. The Eastside totally went back to their traditional tossup status, darn.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: SPC on September 05, 2010, 01:29:10 AM
So, Cook has moved WA-02 into the "lean Democratic" category. Was that because of the primary results, or is there something else as well?

SUSA came out with a new poll there too.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 05, 2010, 02:23:48 AM
wow what a dramatic shift from the 2008 presidential election. The Eastside totally went back to their traditional tossup status, darn.

Not everything was completely nasty, but there were some massive snap-backs.  In fact, the more unusually strong his performance, the harder the hits this year.  One Snoqualmie Ridge precinct that voted moderately for Obama, but no other Democrats down the entire ticket, fell back to 73%-27% Republican.

That's an extreme example, though.  These are basically 2004 Gubernatorial type results, which is obviously pretty awful for Murray, but I'm not seeing evidence of some kind of Eastside revolt.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: muon2 on September 05, 2010, 08:31:20 AM
I just wrote a big long post about WA-2, it might answer some of your questions, maybe. I think the primary was probably a factor (the total Democratic vote was still 52%, which is actually pretty close to what I would have expected), but there is of course recent polling, such as the poll thread where I posted this:

But re-districting will significantly alter the district--this is because it is likely we'll get a 10th seat here in Washington, and the 2nd district (along with the rest, really) will have to shrink quite a bit. I don't know exactly what they'll do, but Everett seems like the most likely portion of the district that may be cut out, and if that happens, the district gets significantly more Republican. I suppose it is also possible they would try to cut out suburban/rural portions of Snohomish County instead, or maybe something wacky like trying to cut out Island County, which may essentially break even or even make the district a little more Democratic, but this is all speculation on my part. Everett has been a key city in the district for a long time (basically its entire existence), so there may be historical reasons to try keeping it there.

Okay, I just wrote way more about WA-2 than anybody probably cared to read. Maybe RealisticIdealist will have something to add or correct, as he's a more permanent resident in the district than I am. ;)

WA has fairly extensive criteria for the redistricting commission to follow according to the SOS webpage.
Quote
    * Districts shall have nearly equal population;
    * District lines should coincide with local political subdivisions (such as city and county lines) and “communities of interest”;
    * Districts should be convenient, contiguous (share a common land border or transportation route), and compact;
    * Districts must not favor or discriminate against one political party or group;
    * District divisions should encourage electoral competition.

Based on current estimates and a 10 CD map, it would seem that removing Everett and Mukilteo would be the easiest way for redraw CD-2. That is the most compact plan for the district and respects the road connections to Island County. If Everett were left in and Island were cut out then Monroe and the US 2 corridor would have to go out as well to balance population. That would be less convenient and compact, so there would have to be compelling reasons in the other districts to prefer that plan.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 06, 2010, 09:47:59 AM
I just wrote a big long post about WA-2, it might answer some of your questions, maybe. I think the primary was probably a factor (the total Democratic vote was still 52%, which is actually pretty close to what I would have expected), but there is of course recent polling, such as the poll thread where I posted this:

But re-districting will significantly alter the district--this is because it is likely we'll get a 10th seat here in Washington, and the 2nd district (along with the rest, really) will have to shrink quite a bit. I don't know exactly what they'll do, but Everett seems like the most likely portion of the district that may be cut out, and if that happens, the district gets significantly more Republican. I suppose it is also possible they would try to cut out suburban/rural portions of Snohomish County instead, or maybe something wacky like trying to cut out Island County, which may essentially break even or even make the district a little more Democratic, but this is all speculation on my part. Everett has been a key city in the district for a long time (basically its entire existence), so there may be historical reasons to try keeping it there.

Okay, I just wrote way more about WA-2 than anybody probably cared to read. Maybe RealisticIdealist will have something to add or correct, as he's a more permanent resident in the district than I am. ;)

WA has fairly extensive criteria for the redistricting commission to follow according to the SOS webpage.
Quote
    * Districts shall have nearly equal population;
    * District lines should coincide with local political subdivisions (such as city and county lines) and “communities of interest”;
    * Districts should be convenient, contiguous (share a common land border or transportation route), and compact;
    * Districts must not favor or discriminate against one political party or group;
    * District divisions should encourage electoral competition.

Based on current estimates and a 10 CD map, it would seem that removing Everett and Mukilteo would be the easiest way for redraw CD-2. That is the most compact plan for the district and respects the road connections to Island County. If Everett were left in and Island were cut out then Monroe and the US 2 corridor would have to go out as well to balance population. That would be less convenient and compact, so there would have to be compelling reasons in the other districts to prefer that plan.

The redistricting commission isn't quite as warm and fuzzy as the state law that sets out their guidelines would suggest. They take historical district lines and composition into serious consideration and on the occasions when they do attempt to stray significantly from past redistricting they often receive pretty forceful outside criticism that snaps them back in to line.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Torie on September 06, 2010, 09:52:17 AM
What caused Mercer Island to go Dem in the past few years or whatever?  I remember when it was comfortably GOP.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on September 06, 2010, 11:01:40 PM
Quick and dirty State Leg round-up now that all the votes are in

State Senate
Safe D: 21st, 29th, 32nd, 33rd, 34th, 35th, 36th, 37th, 38th, 43rd, 46th
Likely D: 26th
Lean D: 48th
Toss-up: 30th, 41st, 44th
Lean R: 6th, 45th
Likely R: 47th
Safe R: 7th, 8th, 13th, 15th, 31st, 42nd

Projected Republican gains of 3-6 seats (7 needed for takeover)

State House
Safe D: 3rd #1, 3rd #2, 11th #1, 11th #2, 22nd #1, 22nd #2, 27th #1, 27th #2, 29th #1, 29th #2, 31st #2, 32nd #1, 32nd #2, 33rd #1, 33rd #2, 34th #1, 34th #2, 36th #1, 36th #2, 37th #1, 37th #2, 43rd #1, 43rd #2, 46th #1, 46th #2
Likely D: 19th #1, 19th #2, 21st #1, 23rd #2, 24th #1, 30th #1, 38th #2, 40th #1, 40th #2, 41st #2, 45th #2, 47th #2, 48th #1, 48th #2, 49th #1
Lean D: 21st #2, 23rd #1, 26th #2, 38th #1, 41st #1, 49th #2
Toss-up: 1st #1, 1st #2, 24th #2, 28th #1, 28th #2, 35th #1, 44th #1, 45th #1
Lean R: 17th #1, 35th #2, 42nd #2
Likely R: 6th #2, 17th #2, 25th #2, 30th #2, 42nd #1
Safe R: 2nd #1, 2nd #2, 4th #1, 4th #2, 5th #1, 5th #2, 6th #1, 7th #1, 7th #2, 8th #1, 8th #2, 9th #1, 9th #2, 10th #1, 10th #2, 12th #1, 12th #2, 13th #1, 13th #2, 14th #1, 14th #2, 15th #1, 15th #2, 16th #1, 16th #2, 18th #1, 18th #2, 20th #1, 20th #2, 25th #1, 26th #1, 31st #1, 39th #1, 39th #2, 44th #2, 47th #1

Projected Republican gains of 11-15 (14 needed for takeover)

So it looks like at this point the State House is in reach for the Republicans if most of the races fall their way. The Senate looks a little more difficult but still possible if everything falls into place. There's also the possibility of Sheldon flipping sides if the Republicans are only a seat away.

In looking at historical data, the WA State House was 65-32 D from 1993-1994 right before the GOP wave of 94.  I realize that the Democrats only gained dominance of all 6 seats in the Seattle Eastside House Districts #41, 45, 48 in 2008, so did the Dems have a substantial base in the Eastern Washington during the early 90s?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Dgov on September 06, 2010, 11:07:21 PM
In looking at historical data, the WA State House was 65-32 D from 1993-1994 right before the GOP wave of 94.  I realize that the Democrats only gained dominance of all 6 seats in the Seattle Eastside House Districts #41, 45, 48 in 2008, so did the Dems have a substantial base in the Eastern Washington during the early 90s?

Well, They held both the Congressional seats in Eastern Washington in 1994.  Jay Inslee was originally from there before carpetbagging to Seattle in 98.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on September 06, 2010, 11:09:32 PM
What caused Mercer Island to go Dem in the past few years or whatever?  I remember when it was comfortably GOP.

Probably the same aversion for social conservatism in moderate, affluent suburban areas in the state and around the country that swung many historically GOP areas Dem. The same can be observed throughout Bellevue/Kirkland/Redmond/Issaquah etc.

IIRC, Mercer Island had been voting Dem at the Governor and Presidential levels since 2000.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 06, 2010, 11:25:37 PM
Quick and dirty State Leg round-up now that all the votes are in

State Senate
Safe D: 21st, 29th, 32nd, 33rd, 34th, 35th, 36th, 37th, 38th, 43rd, 46th
Likely D: 26th
Lean D: 48th
Toss-up: 30th, 41st, 44th
Lean R: 6th, 45th
Likely R: 47th
Safe R: 7th, 8th, 13th, 15th, 31st, 42nd

Projected Republican gains of 3-6 seats (7 needed for takeover)

State House
Safe D: 3rd #1, 3rd #2, 11th #1, 11th #2, 22nd #1, 22nd #2, 27th #1, 27th #2, 29th #1, 29th #2, 31st #2, 32nd #1, 32nd #2, 33rd #1, 33rd #2, 34th #1, 34th #2, 36th #1, 36th #2, 37th #1, 37th #2, 43rd #1, 43rd #2, 46th #1, 46th #2
Likely D: 19th #1, 19th #2, 21st #1, 23rd #2, 24th #1, 30th #1, 38th #2, 40th #1, 40th #2, 41st #2, 45th #2, 47th #2, 48th #1, 48th #2, 49th #1
Lean D: 21st #2, 23rd #1, 26th #2, 38th #1, 41st #1, 49th #2
Toss-up: 1st #1, 1st #2, 24th #2, 28th #1, 28th #2, 35th #1, 44th #1, 45th #1
Lean R: 17th #1, 35th #2, 42nd #2
Likely R: 6th #2, 17th #2, 25th #2, 30th #2, 42nd #1
Safe R: 2nd #1, 2nd #2, 4th #1, 4th #2, 5th #1, 5th #2, 6th #1, 7th #1, 7th #2, 8th #1, 8th #2, 9th #1, 9th #2, 10th #1, 10th #2, 12th #1, 12th #2, 13th #1, 13th #2, 14th #1, 14th #2, 15th #1, 15th #2, 16th #1, 16th #2, 18th #1, 18th #2, 20th #1, 20th #2, 25th #1, 26th #1, 31st #1, 39th #1, 39th #2, 44th #2, 47th #1

Projected Republican gains of 11-15 (14 needed for takeover)

So it looks like at this point the State House is in reach for the Republicans if most of the races fall their way. The Senate looks a little more difficult but still possible if everything falls into place. There's also the possibility of Sheldon flipping sides if the Republicans are only a seat away.

In looking at historical data, the WA State House was 65-32 D from 1993-1994 right before the GOP wave of 94.  I realize that the Democrats only gained dominance of all 6 seats in the Seattle Eastside House Districts #41, 45, 48 in 2008, so did the Dems have a substantial base in the Eastern Washington during the early 90s?

I don't know what you could call a substantial base... but they definitely had more than they do today! Right now, the 3rd LD (central Spokane) is safe Democrat--the only such district in all of Eastern Washington. The 6th LD (Spokane and some of its suburbs) is a swing district... Other than that, the Republicans dominate just about everything in Eastern Washington now that Grant (an anomaly) is dead... Scanning through the 1992 election results, the Democrats did indeed have quite a few seats that they would never win today.

The Democrats also held seats in much of suburban/exurban Seattle that they don't even have today (such as the state senator positions from the 2nd and 5th legislative districts). I wish I had a decent map of the 1990s LDs to illustrate. Hmm.

As I've mentioned before, 1994 is often remembered as a landmark year in the death of the Democratic Party in the South (at least among white people). But it also was the beginning of the end of the Democratic Party in Eastern Washington. Eastern Washington went Republican and never went back. Likewise, I think 2006/2008 was probably the end of the GOP in a lot of the closer-in suburbs in the Seattle area. Depending on how big the GOP wave is this year, they will certainly gain some seats--but will they be permanent losses? I don't really think so--I suspect a lot of them would return to the Democrats in 2 to 4 years. We'll have to wait and see though. :)

What caused Mercer Island to go Dem in the past few years or whatever?  I remember when it was comfortably GOP.

Mercer Island has been Democratic for a while now... Generally, the closer to Seattle, the more Democratic. While we unfortunately don't have religious statistics, I think it is worth nothing that Mercer Island is probably the most Jewish city in the PNW.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on September 07, 2010, 03:51:29 AM
Quote

The Democrats also held seats in much of suburban/exurban Seattle that they don't even have today (such as the state senator positions from the 2nd and 5th legislative districts). I wish I had a decent map of the 1990s LDs to illustrate. Hmm.

As I've mentioned before, 1994 is often remembered as a landmark year in the death of the Democratic Party in the South (at least among white people). But it also was the beginning of the end of the Democratic Party in Eastern Washington. Eastern Washington went Republican and never went back. Likewise, I think 2006/2008 was probably the end of the GOP in a lot of the closer-in suburbs in the Seattle area. Depending on how big the GOP wave is this year, they will certainly gain some seats--but will they be permanent losses? I don't really think so--I suspect a lot of them would return to the Democrats in 2 to 4 years. We'll have to wait and see though. :)

I agree with you that any Dem losses in LDs #41, 45 and 48 this season should be temporary.
It is a matter of time before Democrats gains in LD #5 in its present form. Whatcom/Skagit/Island Co has been trending Dem in recent cycles, so LD #10 and #42 are opportunities for future Democrat gains.  

I'm more concerned about conservative blue collar districts such as LDs #25 (Puyallup), #28 (Lakewood/Steilacomb/Dupont), #30 (Federal Way) and #47 (Covington/Black Diamond/Kent). I believe the GOP is poised to make permanent inroads there.


On another note, any thoughts on why Carnation is so Democratic?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 07, 2010, 03:43:09 PM
Quote

The Democrats also held seats in much of suburban/exurban Seattle that they don't even have today (such as the state senator positions from the 2nd and 5th legislative districts). I wish I had a decent map of the 1990s LDs to illustrate. Hmm.

As I've mentioned before, 1994 is often remembered as a landmark year in the death of the Democratic Party in the South (at least among white people). But it also was the beginning of the end of the Democratic Party in Eastern Washington. Eastern Washington went Republican and never went back. Likewise, I think 2006/2008 was probably the end of the GOP in a lot of the closer-in suburbs in the Seattle area. Depending on how big the GOP wave is this year, they will certainly gain some seats--but will they be permanent losses? I don't really think so--I suspect a lot of them would return to the Democrats in 2 to 4 years. We'll have to wait and see though. :)

I agree with you that any Dem losses in LDs #41, 45 and 48 this season should be temporary.

I agree... 45 in particular is at risk, but the Democrats would get it back pretty quickly IMO.

Quote
It is a matter of time before Democrats gains in LD #5 in its present form.

It is the 2nd fastest growing LD in the state, and will have to shrink by about 30,000 people or so IIRC...so it will definitely not exist in its present form in 2012. I don't really know who that will benefit--the slower growing districts to the west will likely cause the other Eastside disticts to expand into the 5th's territory. Or maybe they will try to cut out Maple Valley instead. But either way I agree that it will probably be competitive for Democrats eventually, but I think re-districting might keep it Republican for a bit longer.

Quote
Whatcom/Skagit/Island Co has been trending Dem in recent cycles, so LD #10 and #42 are opportunities for future Democrat gains.

10, yeah, maybe. 42, I'm not sure. The Republicans might win all three seats there this year (which means defeating Democratic incumbent Rep. Linville). Linville actually lost her bid for re-election in 1994 and quickly came back in 1996, so maybe that will happen again. We'll have to see what happens with re-districting, but I think the 42nd will have to shrink a bit... And the ultra-Democratic precincts in Bellingham will probably be cut out first, so the district could definitely get more Republican in 2012.

Quote
I'm more concerned about conservative blue collar districts such as LDs #25 (Puyallup), #28 (Lakewood/Steilacomb/Dupont), #30 (Federal Way) and #47 (Covington/Black Diamond/Kent). I believe the GOP is poised to make permanent inroads there.

Maybe. State Senator Rasmussen actually lost her bid for re-election in 2008 so some of the area has been moving to the GOP at light speed, clearly. Maybe Alcon or Meeker could enlighten us on what changes re-districting could have? I think the Tacoma districts will have to expand a bit into the suburbs, which wouldn't be good for the Democrats (as the closer-in suburbs that are D-friendly could potentially be moved from competitive districts to safe D districts), but I'm not super familiar with the area.

Quote
On another note, any thoughts on why Carnation is so Democratic?

It's a popular town for Microsofties. Think Darcy Burner.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 07, 2010, 11:02:44 PM
Final result by CD
1st: 53.0-45.5 (D+7.5)
2nd: 47.0-51.7 (R+4.5)
3rd: 45.1-53.0 (R+7.9)
4th: 30.4-68.4 (R+37.9)
5th: 38.4-59.7 (R+21.3)
6th: 50.8-47.5 (D+3.3)
7th: 78.0-20.6 (D+57.5)
8th: 45.5-53.0 (R+7.5)
9th: 49.5-48.7 (D+0.7)
Total: 48.5-49.9 (R+1.3)

Don't really want to post the LDs at the moment, but the ones within ten points were:  1st, 5th, 10th, 19th, 23rd, 24th, 26th, 28th, 30th, 35th, 38th, 41st, 44th, 45th, 47th, 48th & 49th.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Dgov on September 07, 2010, 11:10:03 PM
Final result by CD
1st: 53.0-45.5 (D+7.5)
2nd: 47.0-51.7 (R+4.5)
3rd: 45.1-53.0 (R+7.9)
4th: 30.4-68.4 (R+37.9)
5th: 38.4-59.7 (R+21.3)
6th: 50.8-47.5 (D+3.3)
7th: 78.0-20.6 (D+57.5)
8th: 45.5-53.0 (R+7.5)
9th: 49.5-48.7 (D+0.7)
Total: 48.5-49.9 (R+1.3)

Don't really want to post the LDs at the moment, but the ones within ten points were:  1st, 5th, 10th, 19th, 23rd, 24th, 26th, 28th, 30th, 35th, 38th, 41st, 44th, 45th, 47th, 48th & 49th.

I didn't know the 9th was so close.  Is this a potential target come November?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Torie on September 07, 2010, 11:16:21 PM
Final result by CD
1st: 53.0-45.5 (D+7.5)
2nd: 47.0-51.7 (R+4.5)
3rd: 45.1-53.0 (R+7.9)
4th: 30.4-68.4 (R+37.9)
5th: 38.4-59.7 (R+21.3)
6th: 50.8-47.5 (D+3.3)
7th: 78.0-20.6 (D+57.5)
8th: 45.5-53.0 (R+7.5)
9th: 49.5-48.7 (D+0.7)
Total: 48.5-49.9 (R+1.3)

Don't really want to post the LDs at the moment, but the ones within ten points were:  1st, 5th, 10th, 19th, 23rd, 24th, 26th, 28th, 30th, 35th, 38th, 41st, 44th, 45th, 47th, 48th & 49th.

What is the aggregate partisan split of all these CD's in sum? I am curious to compare it to the Senate race numbers. These numbers suggest something more GOP than the Senate numbers.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 07, 2010, 11:25:10 PM
Final result by CD
1st: 53.0-45.5 (D+7.5)
2nd: 47.0-51.7 (R+4.5)
3rd: 45.1-53.0 (R+7.9)
4th: 30.4-68.4 (R+37.9)
5th: 38.4-59.7 (R+21.3)
6th: 50.8-47.5 (D+3.3)
7th: 78.0-20.6 (D+57.5)
8th: 45.5-53.0 (R+7.5)
9th: 49.5-48.7 (D+0.7)
Total: 48.5-49.9 (R+1.3)

Don't really want to post the LDs at the moment, but the ones within ten points were:  1st, 5th, 10th, 19th, 23rd, 24th, 26th, 28th, 30th, 35th, 38th, 41st, 44th, 45th, 47th, 48th & 49th.

What is the aggregate partisan split of all these CD's in sum? I am curious to compare it to the Senate race numbers. These numbers suggest something more GOP than the Senate numbers.

I'm pretty sure those are the Senate numbers.

Final result by CD
1st: 53.0-45.5 (D+7.5)
2nd: 47.0-51.7 (R+4.5)
3rd: 45.1-53.0 (R+7.9)
4th: 30.4-68.4 (R+37.9)
5th: 38.4-59.7 (R+21.3)
6th: 50.8-47.5 (D+3.3)
7th: 78.0-20.6 (D+57.5)
8th: 45.5-53.0 (R+7.5)
9th: 49.5-48.7 (D+0.7)
Total: 48.5-49.9 (R+1.3)

Don't really want to post the LDs at the moment, but the ones within ten points were:  1st, 5th, 10th, 19th, 23rd, 24th, 26th, 28th, 30th, 35th, 38th, 41st, 44th, 45th, 47th, 48th & 49th.

I didn't know the 9th was so close.  Is this a potential target come November?

Could've been but your nominee is a flop.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 07, 2010, 11:45:14 PM
Yes, those are the Senate numbers. There were no Republicans running in WA-7.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Torie on September 07, 2010, 11:46:21 PM
Thanks guys.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Dgov on September 08, 2010, 03:36:24 AM
Could've been but your nominee is a flop.

Well, that's the thing about Wave elections.  They tend to turn flops into Congressman.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 08, 2010, 07:18:06 AM
Here are the final House totals by party, so you're not (as) confused:

WA-01 - 55.85 D, 39.31 R, 4.25 I
WA-02 - 52.54 D, 47.46 R
WA-03 - 53.62 R, 42.57 D, 3.82 I
WA-04 - 65.27 R, 22.52 D, 6.96 "Tea", 3.03 C, 2.22 I
WA-05 - 62.53 R, 31.2 D, 6.26 C
WA-06 - 56.63 D, 43.37 R
WA-07 - 90.02 D, 9.98 I
WA-08 - 58.19 R, 39.55 D, 2.25 I
WA-09 - 51.24 D, 45.42 R, 3.34 G


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 08, 2010, 10:05:38 AM
Could've been but your nominee is a flop.

Well, that's the thing about Wave elections.  They tend to turn flops into Congressman.

In some districts, sure. But in this district your nominee would've needed a wave and not being flop.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 13, 2010, 10:50:07 PM
Bottom of page two?  Killin' me, people.

New Elway Poll (http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/09/13/murray_ahead_in_washington.html) (lol) shows Murray leading 50%-41% (lol).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 13, 2010, 10:57:31 PM
Bottom of page two?  Killin' me, people.

New Elway Poll (http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/09/13/murray_ahead_in_washington.html) (lol) shows Murray leading 50%-41% (lol).

But it's the premier Washington State poll!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 14, 2010, 06:29:11 PM
Zeiger's writings are starting to get picked up by the local press. The third place finisher in the primary, Republican Steve Vermillion, has also endorsed Morrell over Zeiger. I'm moving 25th District #2 to Toss-up.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 14, 2010, 07:04:18 PM
...lol! If he wins they will have their very own Geoff Simpson. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 15, 2010, 03:46:26 PM
Elolway Poll on initiatives:

Initiative 1053 (restoring two-thirds majority)
Yes 48%
No 27%
Undecided 25%

Initiative 1098 (income tax) [!!!]
Yes 44%
No 42%
Undecided 14%

Initiative 1107 (repeal 'candy tax')
Yes 47%
No 38%
Undecided 15%

Initiative 1100 (liquor privatization)
Yes 45%
No 34%
Undecided 21%

Initiative 1105 (liquor privatization - wholesaler's version)
Yes 41%
No 33%
Undecided 26%
(like anyone knows which is which yet)

Initiative 1082 (worker's comp privatization)
Yes 31%
No 31%
Undecided 38%

Really, do you have any idea what these are about?  For real, I mean.
Yes 7%
Sorta 52%
Not really 21%
Confused Koreans just answering "yes" or "no" in hopes that this will be over soon 1%
Undecided 19%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 15, 2010, 05:56:55 PM
CNN/Opinion Research Center:

Registered voters (MoE +/-3%)
Murray 50%
Rossi 44%
Undecided 4%

Likely voters (MoE +/-3.5%)
Murray 53%
Rossi 44%
Undecided 2%

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/09/15/topstate2.pdf


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 19, 2010, 01:33:15 AM
WA voters blame Republicans for economic situation by a 39-27 margin, and trust Democrats to fix them by a 43-35 margin, according to a Seattle Times/Spokesman Review-commissioned poll from Stuart Elway: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2012937028_poll19m.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: SPC on September 19, 2010, 02:17:26 AM
CNN/Opinion Research Center:

Registered voters (MoE +/-3%)
Murray 50%
Rossi 44%
Undecided 4%

Likely voters (MoE +/-3.5%)
Murray 53%
Rossi 44%
Undecided 2%

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/09/15/topstate2.pdf

I'm suspicious of any poll that shows the Democrats doing better with an enthusiasm gap.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 20, 2010, 01:55:48 PM
Elway:

Murray 49%
Rossi 41%

Independents and undecideds like Rossi's talking points better.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2012937028_poll19m.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Mercenary on September 20, 2010, 04:01:15 PM
These two candidates are why I hate the top-two system, there is no option for me to vote for.
Anyone else feel they may just leave this one blank?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on September 21, 2010, 07:39:23 PM
Ha Ha, Patty is all over Dino's Boeing Bungle like white on rice:

Quote
WASHINGTON -- Call it a bungle or just a bad political call, but Dino Rossi has handed Sen. Patty Murray's campaign a much-welcome cudgel by suggesting that Boeing should get no favorable treatment in its bid for the $30 billion Air Force tanker contract.

A trio of congressional Democrats joined union and labor officials Tuesday to lambaste Rossi during a telephone news conference with reporters. They suggested that Rossi's comment in Monday's News Tribune of Tacoma exposed him as ill-informed or -- worse -- possibly jeopardizing Boeing's chances of securing thousands of new jobs.

The Tacoma newspaper's editorial board asked Rossi about recent World Trade Organization rulings that both Boeing and Airbus benefited from illegal public subsidies. Reports have indicated, however, that improper launch aid from European governments to Airbus far exceeded subsidies to Boeing.

Asked whether the WTO's findings should be a factor in the two companies' bid to land the Pentagon contract, Rossi said he would help Boeing fight for the business but did not answer the question directly. Pressed further about whether the illegal subsidies should matter in the tanker award, Rossi replied, "No, not as far as I'm concerned, no."

Rossi spokeswoman Jennifer Morris tried to clarify Rossi's answer later, saying he meant that Boeing shouldn't be penalized for subsidies it's received -- leaving unanswered the question of what should be done about the even bigger subsidies for Airbus.

Murray's campaign immediately seized on it as proof that Rossi believes "France should have unfair advantage in building tanker for America's military."

On Tuesday, Murray's fellow congressional Democrats picked up where she left off.

Rep. Norm Dicks of Bremerton declared himself "just appalled by Dino Rossi's lack of understanding on this issue." Rep. Jay Inslee of Bainbridge Island and Rep. Rick Larsen of Lake Stevens also piled on, in tones suggesting that Rossi may not be up to speed on current events.

David Groves, spokesman for the Washington State Labor Council, noted that an amendment sponsored by Inslee to require the Pentagon to factor in any illegal subsidies in the tanker bids passed the House by a lopsided bipartisan vote: 410-8.

"This is not a political issue," Groves said. "This kind of demonstrates how out of touch Mr. Rossi is."

Rossi responded with a statement Tuesday afternoon calling the attacks false and saying that Dicks, Inslee and Larsen "should grow up and do something that will help Washington's economy, like extend the 2001 and 2003 tax relief, repeal and replace the health care bill with something that actually lowers costs and increases access, or announce they’ve given up trying to remove secret ballots from labor union elections or enact a cap and trade energy tax."

On the Democrats' watch, he said, "Boeing’s footprint in Washington State has shrunk. We’ve lost the headquarters, lost the Dreamliner, and lost jobs. At some point, they have to understand that what they’ve been doing isn’t working and it’s time for a change in direction.

"I’ll fight for the tanker, and I’ll also make sure Boeing doesn’t face punitive taxes, massive new health care bills, and the ramifications of eliminating secret ballots from labor union elections.”
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2012958497_demsflayrossiforboeingtankercomment.html (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2012958497_demsflayrossiforboeingtankercomment.html)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on September 21, 2010, 08:00:17 PM
These two candidates are why I hate the top-two system, there is no option for me to vote for.
Anyone else feel they may just leave this one blank?

The point is that you do get to vote for whoever you want in the primary without fear of spoiling the ballot and then you get to chose your favorite of the two most popular in the general. No Nader problems here and that sounds good to me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 22, 2010, 12:36:33 PM
So Pam Roach's opponent is a child molester? lol


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 22, 2010, 12:39:47 PM
The 31st District isn't allowed to elect people to the State Legislature anymore.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on September 24, 2010, 02:21:25 AM
Patty is up with an ad attacking Dino's faux pas comment about the Boeing tanker contract.  If we see Rossi's numbers in Snohomish County collapse in November, this may be part of the reason.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOHdN8sdnwc&feature=channel (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOHdN8sdnwc&feature=channel)


KIRO has a news story about it --

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AY63n8Dg6UQ&feature=channel (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AY63n8Dg6UQ&feature=channel)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 24, 2010, 07:12:17 AM
I said a long time ago that Dino attacking Murray's earmarks was a stupid move for a state that depended on them.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 25, 2010, 11:56:30 AM
Can someone explain to me the difference between I-1100 and I-1105? I really don't get it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 25, 2010, 01:21:58 PM
Quote
1100: Allows retailers to negotiate with manufacturers and distributors for volume and other discounts; permits distilleries, wineries and breweries to give gifts larger than coasters and T-shirts to retailers; allows warehousing and buying on credit — all things currently prohibited.

1105: Eliminates liquor taxes and calls for new ones. Requires retailers to use distributors. Allows discounts on liquor, but not beer and wine.

Significance and details: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2012960050_liquor22.html

I don't know what to make of it all.  I'll good with privatization but I can't but help agree with the last quote.  It pretty much epitomizes everything wrong with the initiative process.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 25, 2010, 01:32:10 PM
Quote
1100: Allows retailers to negotiate with manufacturers and distributors for volume and other discounts; permits distilleries, wineries and breweries to give gifts larger than coasters and T-shirts to retailers; allows warehousing and buying on credit — all things currently prohibited.

1105: Eliminates liquor taxes and calls for new ones. Requires retailers to use distributors. Allows discounts on liquor, but not beer and wine.

Significance and details: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2012960050_liquor22.html

I don't know what to make of it all.  I'll good with privatization but I can't but help agree with the last quote.  It pretty much epitomizes everything wrong with the initiative process.

Well that helped explain it but it didn't get me any closer to making a decision. I kind of like the notion of passing both of them and then having the Legislature work out the details. Or voting both of them down because the initiative process sucks.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 25, 2010, 10:53:58 PM
Quote
1100: Allows retailers to negotiate with manufacturers and distributors for volume and other discounts; permits distilleries, wineries and breweries to give gifts larger than coasters and T-shirts to retailers; allows warehousing and buying on credit — all things currently prohibited.

1105: Eliminates liquor taxes and calls for new ones. Requires retailers to use distributors. Allows discounts on liquor, but not beer and wine.

Significance and details: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2012960050_liquor22.html

I don't know what to make of it all.  I'll good with privatization but I can't but help agree with the last quote.  It pretty much epitomizes everything wrong with the initiative process.

Well that helped explain it but it didn't get me any closer to making a decision. I kind of like the notion of passing both of them and then having the Legislature work out the details. Or voting both of them down because the initiative process sucks.

Couldn't agree more.  I figure I'll probably vote Yes on both unless I find a compelling reason not to, because it would go completely unnoticed as a protest vote, and the ends (someone more qualified makes the law instead) would be about the same.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: cannonia on September 26, 2010, 08:14:47 AM
Quote
Requires retailers to use distributors

Translation: Keeps the small breweries/wineries out of the market


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 27, 2010, 06:23:53 PM
The 31st District isn't allowed to elect people to the State Legislature anymore.

http://www.seattlepi.com/opinion/427127_AWFULCHOICE.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 27, 2010, 07:27:42 PM
The Democrats might as well try running a write-in candidate in the 31st.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: tmthforu94 on October 01, 2010, 05:21:56 PM
So Ann Coulter has a questionable piece up on Yahoo! today...
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ucac/20101001/cm_ucac/pattymurraythestupidestpersoninamerica

It's headline is certainly an attention grabber, and one of the first things you see if you type in "Patty Murray". After reading it, trying to be as un-biased as personal, and then viewing her Wikipedia as well as her own website to counter the hackery of Coulter's post, I have a question:

Do a lot of people out there question Murray's intelligence level, or am I the only one? I mean, I'm not calling her stupid, but I'm not going to call her smart either.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on October 01, 2010, 06:24:36 PM
What do you expect from Ann Coulter? This is a serious question.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on October 01, 2010, 10:03:16 PM
It's Ann Coulter..

Also, I don't really think she's dumb. Average intelligence probably.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 02, 2010, 04:29:11 AM
A little strained:  Three quotes over her career that are less indicative of systemic stupidity than poor phrasing, plus a pretty decent (but probably colored) attempt at spinning her life story.  My impression is that she's not the kind of person who reads the New York Times (like her colleagues say), and probably is not really as astute as I'd like a Senator to be, but she's not "stupid."  Not by actual-people standards.

Unrelated, but I wonder why Murray's residence is universally mentioned as Bothell when her voter address has been in Seattle's Westlake neighborhood for a long time.  Is her being from Seattle an oddly well-kept secret?  Even her Wikipedia page says "lifelong resident of Bothell."


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 02, 2010, 09:19:38 AM
I've honestly only ever heard the "she's stupid" thing from people outside of the state - such as Torie. My personally opinion is that she's not the most intelligent Senator but she's certainly smart enough to be one.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 02, 2010, 12:47:39 PM
Just got my ballot. I think I'm going to vote No on 1100 and 1105. This process is just a mess and should be handled in a different way. Also, though I'm not opposed to privatizing liquor sale in any way at some point and understand that the state will lose revenue once that occurs, I'm not sure right now is when we should be doing it.

Other votes:

No on I-1053 (Tim Eyman nonsense)
No on I-1082 (insurance industry nonsense)
Yes on I-1098 (income tax)
No on I-1107 (repeal of candy and soda tax)
Yes on R-52 (energy efficiency projects in schools)
Yes on SJR 8225 (calculating the debt limit)
Yes on ESHJR 4220 (denial of bail)

The last one was a little tough; I sympathize with the liberal arguments against it.

And then I'll vote for all the Democrats of course. And write-in Stan Rumbaugh.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 04, 2010, 03:14:33 PM
Sonntag actually thinks I-1105 and especially I-1100 will save the state money in the long run, fwiw.  I suspect I'll vote Yes.  But then again I'm always suspicious of myself like that


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 04, 2010, 04:10:18 PM
I'll probably vote the same way as Meeker on the propositions.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 04, 2010, 07:46:55 PM
Patty Murray is brilliant. Anyone who disagrees doesn't know what they're talking about.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Torie on October 04, 2010, 08:48:55 PM
Patty Murray is brilliant. Anyone who disagrees doesn't know what they're talking about.

That would not be the first time for me, but ...  well anyway, I admire your loyalty to your girl. By the way, Dick Morris says that Rossi is the most important GOP candidate to send money to. Rossi represents the 10th GOP pickup, and thus control of the Senate,  is the reason. So how much money do you think I should send Rossi, Bgwah?  


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on October 05, 2010, 01:15:47 AM
Ok, well I can see where someone would get the idea that Murray isn't the most intelligent Senator. However aren't people generally disdainful about how uber-intelligent the Senate is anyways? I mean like most of the senators are from the Ivy Leagues and that definitely doesn't represent the American public well. It's probably just Murray's image as a soccer mom that makes her seem less "intelligent," but at the same time she's less of a snob image-wise than most of the senate.

Plus Dino Rossi comes across as an airhead to me....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 05, 2010, 04:23:21 PM
Patty Murray is brilliant. Anyone who disagrees doesn't know what they're talking about.

That would not be the first time for me, but ...  well anyway, I admire your loyalty to your girl. By the way, Dick Morris says that Rossi is the most important GOP candidate to send money to. Rossi represents the 10th GOP pickup, and thus control of the Senate,  is the reason. So how much money do you think I should send Rossi, Bgwah? 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XSLfm_h1WY

Do you really think he sounds smart? :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on October 05, 2010, 08:44:49 PM
Plus Dino Rossi comes across as an airhead to me....

In the editorial board interview with The Seattle Times, Dino Rossi did not understand the concept of "Net Neutrality."  Patty Murray did.  Click on the link and watch the 2:17 minute clip entitled "Net Neutrality."

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/flatpages/local/politics/editorialinterviewssenate2010.html (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/flatpages/local/politics/editorialinterviewssenate2010.html)

Quote
Seattle Times:  Do you understand what Net Neutrality is?

Rossi:  I've read about it.

Seattle Times:  Is it fair to say you don't?   

Rossi:  "I haven't fully examined it all.  But the idea that people would control would make me nervous, especially if the federal government were involved."

lol


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Torie on October 05, 2010, 09:21:41 PM
Patty Murray is brilliant. Anyone who disagrees doesn't know what they're talking about.

That would not be the first time for me, but ...  well anyway, I admire your loyalty to your girl. By the way, Dick Morris says that Rossi is the most important GOP candidate to send money to. Rossi represents the 10th GOP pickup, and thus control of the Senate,  is the reason. So how much money do you think I should send Rossi, Bgwah? 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XSLfm_h1WY

Do you really think he sounds smart? :P

It was fine, but rather cliche ridden, and his delivery was uneven in places. But your problem with it is perhaps more about that you don't agree with Rossi that the Obama program sucked. Isn't that a fair comment?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 05, 2010, 11:07:20 PM
Patty Murray is brilliant. Anyone who disagrees doesn't know what they're talking about.

That would not be the first time for me, but ...  well anyway, I admire your loyalty to your girl. By the way, Dick Morris says that Rossi is the most important GOP candidate to send money to. Rossi represents the 10th GOP pickup, and thus control of the Senate,  is the reason. So how much money do you think I should send Rossi, Bgwah? 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XSLfm_h1WY

Do you really think he sounds smart? :P

It was fine, but rather cliche ridden, and his delivery was uneven in places. But your problem with it is perhaps more about that you don't agree with Rossi that the Obama program sucked. Isn't that a fair comment?

I haven't actually watched it since May.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on October 08, 2010, 06:30:20 PM
The Seattle Times has endorsed Sen. Murray.  I must admit I am slightly surprised, given the somewhat conservative bent of their editorial page and the fact they endorsed Rossi twice for governor.

Quote
The truth about Murray is she delivers for Washington and the Northwest. She secured funds to begin to replace the I-5 bridge connecting Washington and Oregon, which helps business and ports. She rounded up federal dollars to repair the Howard Hanson Dam and protect the Green River Valley. She saved the veterans hospital in Walla Walla and secured funds to add a clinic there. She worked for years to win approval of the Wild Sky Wilderness Area in Snohomish County.

On almost every topic, Murray is studied and has an answer. On the issue of net neutrality, which involves unfettered access to the Internet, Rossi did not have a clue, even though this issue is pressing within the tech industry.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorials/2013112273_edit10murray.html (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorials/2013112273_edit10murray.html)

The Seattle PI hasn't endorsed yet but given the liberal bent of that paper it's a lock for Murray.  The Everett Herald has already endorsed Murray.

I think the major papers we haven't heard from yet are the PI, Tacoma News Tribune, The Olympian, The Columbian and The Spokane Spokesman Review.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: - on October 08, 2010, 06:37:26 PM
The Seattle Times has endorsed Sen. Murray.  I must admit I am slightly surprised, given the somewhat conservative bent of their editorial page and the fact they endorsed Rossi twice for governor.

Quote
The truth about Murray is she delivers for Washington and the Northwest. She secured funds to begin to replace the I-5 bridge connecting Washington and Oregon, which helps business and ports. She rounded up federal dollars to repair the Howard Hanson Dam and protect the Green River Valley. She saved the veterans hospital in Walla Walla and secured funds to add a clinic there. She worked for years to win approval of the Wild Sky Wilderness Area in Snohomish County.

On almost every topic, Murray is studied and has an answer. On the issue of net neutrality, which involves unfettered access to the Internet, Rossi did not have a clue, even though this issue is pressing within the tech industry.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorials/2013112273_edit10murray.html (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorials/2013112273_edit10murray.html)

The Seattle PI hasn't endorsed yet but given the liberal bent of that paper it's a lock for Murray.  The Everett Herald has already endorsed Murray.

I think the major papers we haven't heard from yet are the PI, Tacoma News Tribune, The Olympian, The Columbian and The Spokane Spokesman Review.



The Seattle Times?

Wow.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on October 08, 2010, 06:51:45 PM
I'm glad The Seattle Times skewered Rossi on the pathetic and unprepared answer he gave on Net Neutrality during their editorial board interview (see my post upthread):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=76921.msg2672786#msg2672786 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=76921.msg2672786#msg2672786)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 08, 2010, 07:29:35 PM
This is big.

The Seattle Times endorsed Rossi twice during his bids for governor, but they endorsed his opponent this time.


See:
 http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorials/2013112273_edit10murray.html?prmid=op_ed








Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on October 08, 2010, 08:47:14 PM
This is big.

The Seattle Times endorsed Rossi twice during his bids for governor, but they endorsed his opponent this time.


See:
 http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorials/2013112273_edit10murray.html?prmid=op_ed








They also endorsed Susan Hutchison. As far as their endorsements go, they don't seem to have a good track record of getting people elected.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 08, 2010, 08:52:57 PM
This is big.

The Seattle Times endorsed Rossi twice during his bids for governor, but they endorsed his opponent this time.


See:
 http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorials/2013112273_edit10murray.html?prmid=op_ed








They also endorsed Susan Hutchison. As far as their endorsements go, they don't seem to have a good track record of getting people elected.

Yes, but it's still important since they actually like Rossi, but they still endorsed Murray.  I just thought I might as well through it out there.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lunar on October 08, 2010, 08:55:09 PM
It's more symbolic than anything else.

"On too many domestic and foreign policy matters, Rossi has not distinguished himself sufficiently from the Republican Party line. He has missed numerous opportunities to establish himself as a Northwest brand of Republican."

"On almost every topic, Murray is studied and has an answer. On the issue of net neutrality, which involves unfettered access to the Internet, Rossi did not have a clue, even though this issue is pressing within the tech industry."


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 08, 2010, 09:00:06 PM
It's more symbolic than anything else.

"On too many domestic and foreign policy matters, Rossi has not distinguished himself sufficiently from the Republican Party line. He has missed numerous opportunities to establish himself as a Northwest brand of Republican."

"On almost every topic, Murray is studied and has an answer. On the issue of net neutrality, which involves unfettered access to the Internet, Rossi did not have a clue, even though this issue is pressing within the tech industry."

Exactly what I meant to say.  Thank you :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Beet on October 08, 2010, 10:12:17 PM
This is big.

The Seattle Times endorsed Rossi twice during his bids for governor, but they endorsed his opponent this time.


See:
 http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorials/2013112273_edit10murray.html?prmid=op_ed








They also endorsed Susan Hutchison. As far as their endorsements go, they don't seem to have a good track record of getting people elected.

They endorsed Reichert for both his re-elects. They are supposed to be the conservative paper in the Seattle area, the liberal paper was the Post-Intelligencer.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: cinyc on October 08, 2010, 10:50:39 PM
They endorsed Reichert for both his re-elects. They are supposed to be the conservative paper in the Seattle area, the liberal paper was the Post-Intelligencer.

To what extent is that true?  Didn't the Seattle PI fire practically everyone and cease printing a physical newspaper?   Did the Seattle Times pick up some of the old PI editorial folks?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 09, 2010, 12:24:08 AM
They endorsed Reichert for both his re-elects. They are supposed to be the conservative paper in the Seattle area, the liberal paper was the Post-Intelligencer.

To what extent is that true?  Didn't the Seattle PI fire practically everyone and cease printing a physical newspaper?   Did the Seattle Times pick up some of the old PI editorial folks?

I've never heard that. The Seattle PI continues to operate as an online outfit and I'm pretty sure they retained most of their editorial board staff.

The Times continues to have a fairly conservative bent and I'm very surprised by this endorsement.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Sam Spade on October 10, 2010, 09:49:03 AM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2013103785_felonsvoting08.html

In short:  En banc review of the 9th Circuit's ruling that Washington's prisoner voting ban was unconstitutional has overturned that ruling in full.  The decision was unanimous.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 11, 2010, 12:33:20 AM
Local Democratic activist starts write-in campaign for 31st District Senate seat: http://www.pnwlocalnews.com/pierce/bch/news/104597454.html

He won't get more than 2% or so (if that).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 11, 2010, 12:51:57 AM
Local Democratic activist starts write-in campaign for 31st District Senate seat: http://www.pnwlocalnews.com/pierce/bch/news/104597454.html

He won't get more than 2% or so (if that).

If the local Democratic Party endorsed the guy, he could probably get a lot more than that. He won't win of course, but he could still get a fair amount.

I remember Di Irons got like >30% when she ran a write-in campaign against David Irons. ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 11, 2010, 12:56:25 AM
Local Democratic activist starts write-in campaign for 31st District Senate seat: http://www.pnwlocalnews.com/pierce/bch/news/104597454.html

He won't get more than 2% or so (if that).

If the local Democratic Party endorsed the guy, he could probably get a lot more than that. He won't win of course, but he could still get a fair amount.

I remember Di Irons got like >30% when she ran a write-in campaign against David Irons. ;D

The 31st District Democrats are unorganized and broke and ballots are mailed Friday. I just don't see how many outside of those directly involved in the party are going to be able to hear about the guy.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 11, 2010, 01:02:35 AM
Local Democratic activist starts write-in campaign for 31st District Senate seat: http://www.pnwlocalnews.com/pierce/bch/news/104597454.html

He won't get more than 2% or so (if that).

If the local Democratic Party endorsed the guy, he could probably get a lot more than that. He won't win of course, but he could still get a fair amount.

I remember Di Irons got like >30% when she ran a write-in campaign against David Irons. ;D

The 31st District Democrats are unorganized and broke and ballots are mailed Friday. I just don't see how many outside of those directly involved in the party are going to be able to hear about the guy.

She jumped into the race pretty late--October IIRC--but of course that was pre-mail...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 11, 2010, 01:06:08 AM
Local Democratic activist starts write-in campaign for 31st District Senate seat: http://www.pnwlocalnews.com/pierce/bch/news/104597454.html

He won't get more than 2% or so (if that).

If the local Democratic Party endorsed the guy, he could probably get a lot more than that. He won't win of course, but he could still get a fair amount.

I remember Di Irons got like >30% when she ran a write-in campaign against David Irons. ;D

The 31st District Democrats are unorganized and broke and ballots are mailed Friday. I just don't see how many outside of those directly involved in the party are going to be able to hear about the guy.

She jumped into the race pretty late--October IIRC--but of course that was pre-mail...

Hmm... well we'll see I suppose. My guess is that there will be a higher than usual level of spontaneous write-ins in that race as well (in addition to a very high undervote).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 12, 2010, 07:39:31 PM
In addition to the hee-larious 15 point lead for Murray (with leaners), the new Elway Poll spews out the following:

I-1107 Candy tax repeal
Yes 54%
No 33%

Without leaners, it's even worse (40-17).

I-1053 Requiring two-thirds majority for tax increases
Yes 49%
No 34%

Even a plurality of Democrats now support this.

I-1098 Income tax
Yes 41%
No 48%

Support is falling, and the income gap is rising; Eastside folks are sensing class warfare.

I-1100 Liquor #1
Yes 42%
No 44%

Undecided voters are starting to turn against this measure.

I-1105 Liquor #2
Yes 36%
No 45%

Independents don't like it.

I-1082 Worker's comp privatization
Yes 31%
No 40%

Other than a few people philosophically oriented toward opposition or support, most people seem confused.

http://www.publicola.net/2010/10/11/poll-candy-tax-repeal-gains-ground-four-initiatives-losing/

Also, lol @ 71% of people understanding I-1082 enough to be decided.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Dgov on October 12, 2010, 08:36:24 PM
In addition to the hee-larious 15 point lead for Murray (with leaners), the new Elway Poll spews out the following:

I-1107 Candy tax repeal
Yes 54%
No 33%

Without leaners, it's even worse (40-17).

I-1053 Requiring two-thirds majority for tax increases
Yes 49%
No 34%

Even a plurality of Democrats now support this.

I-1098 Income tax
Yes 41%
No 48%

Support is falling, and the income gap is rising; Eastside folks are sensing class warfare.

I-1100 Liquor #1
Yes 42%
No 44%

Undecided voters are starting to turn against this measure.

I-1105 Liquor #2
Yes 36%
No 45%

Independents don't like it.

I-1082 Worker's comp privatization
Yes 31%
No 40%

Other than a few people philosophically oriented toward opposition or support, most people seem confused.

http://www.publicola.net/2010/10/11/poll-candy-tax-repeal-gains-ground-four-initiatives-losing/

Also, lol @ 71% of people understanding I-1082 enough to be decided.

Well, if this same poll had Murray up by 15, then isn't it fair to say that the totals for most of these propositions are at least a couple of points left of where they will actually be on election day?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 12, 2010, 08:46:52 PM
While this isn't any surprise considering their primary endorsement, it's downright bizarre from the perspective of two years ago: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorials/2013142434_edit13district08.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 12, 2010, 09:02:35 PM
While this isn't any surprise considering their primary endorsement, it's downright bizarre from the perspective of two years ago: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorials/2013142434_edit13district08.html

The endorsement itself isn't terribly important, but we can't forget how the Seattle Times singlehandedly destroyed Darcy Burner in October 2008 with their front page slam piece. Their endorsement of DelBene at least suggests they won't do something like that again. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 14, 2010, 12:16:18 AM
More fun in the 31st District. Sumner City Council member Cindi Hochstatter demanded Richardson's resignation at a Monday meeting which was followed by this exchange:

Quote
After hearing Hochstatter’s comments, Richardson said he “reciprocated” her comments and asked her to resign.

“It’s clear you don’t have the education (for the council member position) ... it’s a joke,” he said.

Councilmember Steve Allsop said he agreed with Hochstatter, prompting Richardson to say he felt the attack “looks pretty coordinated to me,” a claim Hochstatter denied.

“You’re a disgusting individual, Steve,” Richardson said.

“Right back at you,” Allsop said.

http://www.thenewstribune.com/2010/10/13/1380500/sumner-council-member-calls-for.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 14, 2010, 11:47:11 AM
“You’re a disgusting individual, Steve,” Richardson said.

“Right back at you,” Allsop said.

<3


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on October 14, 2010, 04:33:41 PM
I-1053 Requiring two-thirds majority for tax increases
Yes 49%
No 34%



Aaaah California-style dysfunction here we come


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: - on October 14, 2010, 04:56:36 PM
While this isn't any surprise considering their primary endorsement, it's downright bizarre from the perspective of two years ago: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorials/2013142434_edit13district08.html

The endorsement itself isn't terribly important, but we can't forget how the Seattle Times singlehandedly destroyed Darcy Burner in October 2008 with their front page slam piece. Their endorsement of DelBene at least suggests they won't do something like that again. :P

WHAT?

The Times endorsed DelBene over their favorite congressman Dave Reichert?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 15, 2010, 12:43:24 AM
http://www.king5.com/community/blogs/politiking/New-KING-5-poll-finds-Senate-race-a-dead-heat-104965414.html

SUSA: Murray +3


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 15, 2010, 02:15:10 PM
Washington Poll: Murray +8 (Murray 50%, Rossi 42%)

Approvals:

Obama: 52-45
Gregoire: 41-52
State legislature: 34-45
Congress: 27-60
McKenna: 46-14
Murray: 48-42
Rossi: 40-49
Palin: 35-55
Health care reform bill: 38-49
Wall street reform bill: 36-33
NAACP declaration that Tea Party is "racially intolerant": 22-43
Tea Party: 39-36
Repealing DADT: 60-24
Islamic cultural center in NYC: 36-50
Extending Bush tax cuts (part sample): 48-30
Extending Bush tax cuts to <$200k/yr. (part sample): 53-27

Congressional generic: Democratic 44%, Republican 41%

State legislature preference for majority party tied 35%-35%

I-1098 (Income tax)
Yes 42%
No 51%

I-1100 (Alcohol sales)
Yes 47%
No 49%

I-1107 (Candy tax repeal)
Yes 56%
No 36%

Two-thirds majority (not asked as initiative for some reason)
Support 57%
Oppose 30%

Gay marriage type support (options rotated randomly, not put in order)
Full marriage 38%
Marriage except in name 29%
Partial domestic partnership benefits 11%
No legal recognition 16%

http://www.washingtonpoll.org/results/oct15_2010.pdf


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 15, 2010, 02:33:46 PM
Looks like a disappointing year on the initiative front.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Rowan on October 15, 2010, 02:35:20 PM
What the hell is a MINO?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 15, 2010, 02:38:32 PM

Domestic partnerships in Washington have all the rights of marriage but we call them domestic partnerships.

Should really be described as "marriage in everything but name".


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Rowan on October 15, 2010, 03:05:37 PM

Domestic partnerships in Washington have all the rights of marriage but we call them domestic partnerships.

Should really be described as "marriage in everything but name".

"Marriage in name only" is a really awful way to describe that. It gives the notion that it is called a marriage, but they don't have the same rights.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 15, 2010, 03:06:40 PM
It's a Freudian slip, I meant "marriage except in name" but fell into the "____ in name only" meme :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bullmoose88 on October 15, 2010, 03:13:52 PM
It's a Freudian slip, I meant "marriage except in name" but fell into the "____ in name only" meme :P


MEIN?



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on October 16, 2010, 02:38:17 AM
Washington is clearly full of dumbs, as noted by the numbers on the tax increase threshold and income tax referendums.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 20, 2010, 12:58:42 PM
King County doesn't seem to be reporting daily ballot returns. Disappointing.

Also: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8VMcRqtdSI&feature=player_embedded

"The wealthy pay more. The rest of us pay less." :D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 20, 2010, 01:37:37 PM
Sent my vote in last night. I caved and supported Murray. Not a big shocker there, I suppose. I voted for Larsen as well, though I voted for Norma Smith against her challenger who wasn't on the primary ballot.

As for the intiatives:
No on I-1053
No on I-1082
Yes on I-1098
No on I-1100
No on I-1105
No on I-1107
Yes on R-52
Yes on SJR 8225
Yes on ESHJR 4220


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Dgov on October 20, 2010, 01:39:19 PM
Also: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8VMcRqtdSI&feature=player_embedded

"The wealthy pay more. The rest of us pay less." :D

"The Wealthy pay more.  But then there's less of them to pay at all"


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 20, 2010, 03:19:52 PM
My probable votes and likely winners:

I-1053: No (Yes)
I-1082: No (No)
I-1098: No (No)
I-1100: Yes (No)
I-1105: No (No)
I-1107: No (Yes)
R-52: Reject (Reject)
SJR-8225: Totally undecided (Approve)
ESHJR-4220: Approve (Approve)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 20, 2010, 03:57:56 PM
Interesting: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rR1edS78s9U

I hope she can pull off a miracle.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 20, 2010, 06:11:00 PM
Koster threw a hissy fit and dropped out of a debate, lolz.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 20, 2010, 08:02:58 PM
There's been some issues getting voters in Clark County their ballots. The USPS says everyone should have them by today or tomorrow though. It's not clear how many ballots have been delayed but it's causing ballot return statistics to be a little screwy (Thurston's return rate is twice that of Clark's right now).

King County will also start publishing statistics at 8 tonight.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on October 21, 2010, 12:40:10 AM
King County will also start publishing statistics at 8 tonight.

Last updated: 10/20/2010 8:00 PM
King County Cumulative Total

District   Total Issued   Received Today   Cumulative Received To Date   % Received
COUNTYWIDE   1071670   23784   84581    7.89

Ballots were mailed out 10/15.  For historical comparison, 2006 turnout was 63%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on October 21, 2010, 12:44:47 AM
My probable votes and likely winners:

I-1053: No (Yes)
I-1082: No (No)
I-1098: No (No)
I-1100: Yes (No)
I-1105: No (No)
I-1107: No (Yes)
R-52: Reject (Reject)
SJR-8225: Totally undecided (Approve)
ESHJR-4220: Approve (Approve)
Just mailed mine back today.

US Senate - Murray (reluctantly)
WA-8 - Del Bene
LD-41 Senate and House - Gordon/Maxwell/Clibborn
I-1053: No (Yes)
I-1082: No (No)
I-1098: Hell No (No)
I-1100: Yes (Yes)
I-1105: No (No)
I-1107: Yes (Yes)
R-52: Reject (Reject)
ESHJR-4220: Reject - reactionary nonsense (Approve)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 21, 2010, 01:33:57 PM
I filled out my ballot:

Senate: Murray
House: Larsen
LD-40: Lytton/Morris

StrangerThanFiction: Did you vote for Reichert or Burner in 2008? Just curious to know if Dem-leaning libertarians have switched sides... :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on October 21, 2010, 05:23:06 PM
I filled out my ballot:

Senate: Murray
House: Larsen
LD-40: Lytton/Morris

StrangerThanFiction: Did you vote for Reichert or Burner in 2008? Just curious to know if Dem-leaning libertarians have switched sides... :)

I voted for Burner in 2008, more for her geeky persona though.  DelBene is a far stronger candidate and a better fit for this moderate-to-libertarian district than Burner, but she's up against some brutal headwinds this season.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 22, 2010, 02:29:52 PM
DelBene dumped another $1.35 million of her own money into the race. Puts her even with Reichert's remaining CoH according to his Q3 FEC report.

http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2010/10/22/delbene-invests-in-8th-cd-race


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 24, 2010, 02:05:34 PM
24-hour web cam of the King County Elections counting room floor: http://www.kingcounty.gov/elections/aboutus/webcam.aspx

Now you can watch all the fraud happen right from the comfort of your home!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CatoMinor on October 24, 2010, 02:55:46 PM
24-hour web cam of the King County Elections counting room floor: http://www.kingcounty.gov/elections/aboutus/webcam.aspx

Now you can watch all the fraud happen right from the comfort of your home!

In the words of Boss Tweed,
Quote
The ballots didn't make the outcome. The counters did.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on October 24, 2010, 09:39:08 PM
Patty Murray has been endorsed by the Spokane Spokesman-Review:

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2010/oct/24/editorial-on-balance-murray-is-better-choice-for/ (http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2010/oct/24/editorial-on-balance-murray-is-better-choice-for/)

It is not a good sign for Rossi that he could not win the endorsement of a conservative paper in a high population conservative area in a GOP favored political environment.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on October 24, 2010, 10:26:51 PM
Patty Murray has been endorsed by the Spokane Spokesman-Review:

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2010/oct/24/editorial-on-balance-murray-is-better-choice-for/ (http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2010/oct/24/editorial-on-balance-murray-is-better-choice-for/)

It is not a good sign for Rossi that he could not win the endorsement of a conservative paper in a high population conservative area in a GOP favored political environment.
wtf wtf wtf


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 24, 2010, 10:56:52 PM
Anyone who looks at this race objectively and examines it without partisanship taken into account - as most newspaper in this state do - can see that Murray is the far better candidate.

I say that not to trash Rossi supporters - there are other reasons to vote for people apart from candidate quality, such as partisan affiliation. But newspapers (with a few exceptions) don't consider such things.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on October 25, 2010, 12:27:28 AM
Patty Murray has been endorsed by the Spokane Spokesman-Review:

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2010/oct/24/editorial-on-balance-murray-is-better-choice-for/ (http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2010/oct/24/editorial-on-balance-murray-is-better-choice-for/)

It is not a good sign for Rossi that he could not win the endorsement of a conservative paper in a high population conservative area in a GOP favored political environment.


So did the Tri-City Herald.  A conservative paper from the most conservative part of the state.  Did they endorse Murray in 2004?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 25, 2010, 12:53:21 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2013249952_third25m.html

Articles like this are so bad I just want to hit my head on the desk.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on October 25, 2010, 07:58:23 PM
Patty Murray has been endorsed by the Spokane Spokesman-Review:

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2010/oct/24/editorial-on-balance-murray-is-better-choice-for/ (http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2010/oct/24/editorial-on-balance-murray-is-better-choice-for/)

It is not a good sign for Rossi that he could not win the endorsement of a conservative paper in a high population conservative area in a GOP favored political environment.


So did the Tri-City Herald.  A conservative paper from the most conservative part of the state.  Did they endorse Murray in 2004?


The Spokesman-Review endorsed George Nethercutt in 2004.  I don't know about the Tri-City Herald.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 26, 2010, 02:55:17 PM
Very strange: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013254048_wheresrossihewontsay.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: cinyc on October 26, 2010, 04:10:52 PM
Very strange: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013254048_wheresrossihewontsay.html

Not really.  A lot of candidates aren't making their appearances as well known as they used to in order to avoid the opposition from filming and exploiting miscues.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 26, 2010, 04:29:16 PM
Very strange: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013254048_wheresrossihewontsay.html

Not really.  A lot of candidates aren't making their appearances as well known as they used to in order to avoid the opposition from filming and exploiting miscues.

That wasn't the "very strange" I was referring to. The fact that reporters repeatedly asked him on a public conference call where he was and yet he wouldn't respond is a dumb and bizarre thing for any candidate to do.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 26, 2010, 08:33:11 PM
The DCCC just dropped more than $500k in a last minute ad buy in WA-03. That brings their total spending in the district to more than $1.7 million.

They must see something in their polling that we're not...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 29, 2010, 03:34:36 PM
Washington Poll
Murray 46%
Rossi 42%

I-1098 (Income tax)
Yes 44%
No 50%

I-1100 (Liquor privatization)
Yes 49%
No 47%

I-1107 (Soda/Candy tax repeal)
Yes 57%
No 40%

I-1053 (Two-thirds tax hike requirement)
Yes 60%
No 29% (!)

I-1053: Dayum.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Mercenary on October 29, 2010, 04:46:10 PM
Income Tax is that close? That is scary...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 29, 2010, 04:49:13 PM
Washington Poll
Murray 46%
Rossi 42%

I-1098 (Income tax)
Yes 44%
No 50%

I-1100 (Liquor privatization)
Yes 49%
No 47%

I-1107 (Soda/Candy tax repeal)
Yes 57%
No 40%

I-1053 (Two-thirds tax hike requirement)
Yes 60%
No 29% (!)

I-1053: Dayum.

Did they not poll I-1105?

I have a feeling Yes/No and No/Yes votes will give No/No a win. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Mercenary on October 29, 2010, 04:57:25 PM
I still don't get why we had 1100 and 1105 how were they ever different?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 29, 2010, 05:00:37 PM
I still don't get why we had 1100 and 1105 how were they ever different?

They're actually significantly different, if you read the details of the distribution adjustments, and not just what's on the ballot.  I voted Yes/No.  I thought I-1100 was decent and I-1105 sucks.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 29, 2010, 06:55:31 PM
The children speak!

http://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/mock/Results.aspx


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 29, 2010, 07:00:48 PM
The children speak!

http://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/mock/Results.aspx

I made sure to vote in that earlier this week.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 29, 2010, 08:25:10 PM
I think we missed the SUSA initiative results

I-1098 (Income tax)
Yes 34%
No 56%

I-1107 (End candy/soda tax)
Yes 56%
No 36%

I-1053 (Reinstate two-thirds majority)
Yes 55%
No 28%

Referendum 52 (School Energy Bonds)
Approve 38%
Reject 46%

I-1082 (Industrial Insurance)
Yes 33%
No 40%

I-1100 (Liquor #1)
Yes 48%
No 40%

I-1105 (Liquor #2)
Yes 36%
No 51%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on October 29, 2010, 08:27:37 PM
I think we missed the SUSA initiative results

I-1098 (Income tax)
Yes 34%
No 56%

I-1053 (Reinstate two-thirds majority)
Yes 55%
No 28%

Epic fail state.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: SvenssonRS on October 29, 2010, 08:31:35 PM
I think we missed the SUSA initiative results

I-1098 (Income tax)
Yes 34%
No 56%

I-1053 (Reinstate two-thirds majority)
Yes 55%
No 28%

Epic fail state.

I like how every state that does something vaguely contrary to what you want it to do is "epic fail" or a "joke state." Gotta love the benevolent Dems!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on October 29, 2010, 08:33:10 PM
I think we missed the SUSA initiative results

I-1098 (Income tax)
Yes 34%
No 56%

I-1053 (Reinstate two-thirds majority)
Yes 55%
No 28%

Epic fail state.

I like how every state that does something vaguely contrary to what you want it to do is "epic fail" or a "joke state." Gotta love the benevolent Dems!

Yes a 2/3 majority to pass tax increases is a fantastic idea. It's what's made California such a well-functioning state after all.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 29, 2010, 08:34:27 PM
Perhaps those who basically know nothing of these initiatives beyond their ballot titles should find another thread :P

Not that you need to know much on I-1053, really, which honestly I'm amazed is doing so well.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Dgov on October 30, 2010, 02:10:35 PM
The children speak!

http://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/mock/Results.aspx

What's the Difference between Initiative B and Initiative 1098?  Do they both create some sort of Income tax and just different kinds, or what?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 30, 2010, 02:50:34 PM
The children speak!

http://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/mock/Results.aspx

What's the Difference between Initiative B and Initiative 1098?  Do they both create some sort of Income tax and just different kinds, or what?

I think the lettered initiatives were just simplified versions of real initiatives they asked the young kids.  Before they asked them silly school uniform-type questions.  Those are never lettered initiatives on the ballot.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Dgov on October 30, 2010, 03:26:29 PM
The children speak!

http://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/mock/Results.aspx

What's the Difference between Initiative B and Initiative 1098?  Do they both create some sort of Income tax and just different kinds, or what?

I think the lettered initiatives were just simplified versions of real initiatives they asked the young kids.  Before they asked them silly school uniform-type questions.  Those are never lettered initiatives on the ballot.

Hmm, so 1st-5th graders oppose an Income tax by more than 20 points . . .


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 30, 2010, 03:35:52 PM
The children speak!

http://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/mock/Results.aspx

What's the Difference between Initiative B and Initiative 1098?  Do they both create some sort of Income tax and just different kinds, or what?

I think the lettered initiatives were just simplified versions of real initiatives they asked the young kids.  Before they asked them silly school uniform-type questions.  Those are never lettered initiatives on the ballot.

Hmm, so 1st-5th graders oppose an Income tax by more than 20 points . . .

Yeah, but who knows how they explained it to get such different results.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: King on October 30, 2010, 03:49:36 PM
Two thirds vote requirements go against the fabric of democracy.  It pretty much demands extremism.

"NO" is an easier and far more powerful than "YES."  So, the minority party will always control the government by forcing inaction.  In fact, a minority party would probably be better off throwing the elections for a decade so the majority would get landslided out after the system fails from said inaction.  And that's when it would get dangerous.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on October 30, 2010, 04:33:17 PM
It also places total power in the hands of a select few, depending on how close the majority party is to the 2/3rd's. If the majority party only needs a vote or two to pass something, then someone can promise their vote by getting whatever they want, whenever they want passed as well. See: cretin Abel Maldonado. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 30, 2010, 04:49:07 PM
Super-unofficial data combing indicates the general electorate is about 3% more Democratic than the primary electorate thus far.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 30, 2010, 05:05:27 PM
I'm waiting until Monday to mail my ballot in. I don't like it when later returns lean Republican. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 30, 2010, 05:23:13 PM
Here's D-R-I ballot return statistics (%) for my LD:

2010 General: 48-21-4
2010 Primary: 52-23-4
2009 General: 50-22-4
2008 General: 43-18-4
2006 General: 52-22-4

Not a huge difference.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 31, 2010, 04:35:50 PM
Random fact: Thurston County has had a Republican Auditor since 1941.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 02, 2010, 01:56:42 AM
Not that it's a big county for anyone outside of the 3rd CD, but Cowlitz County turnout is through the roof - 49% as of today. Typically Cowlitz trails Thurston and runs about even with Clark but right now it's beating both by 7 or 8%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 02, 2010, 02:14:20 AM
Random fact: Thurston County has had a Republican Auditor since 1941.

Random fact: Washington state has had a Democratic Auditor since 1933. ;D

The 1992 Auditor race (Reed vs Sonntag) is a fun one, particularly the respective candidates very strong performances in their home counties (Thurston and Pierce).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 02, 2010, 07:18:13 AM
The SOS is predicting turnout of 66%, or about 2.4 million voters. (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2013315901_apwaelectionturnout.html) Highest midterm participation since 1970, apparently.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Eraserhead on November 02, 2010, 07:19:29 AM
Wow.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 02, 2010, 11:07:07 PM
State senate breakdown so far, with close ones underlined:
  1: Not up (D)
  2: Not up (R)
  3: Not up (D)
  4: Not up (R)
  5: Not up (R)
  6: Marr beaten by 20! R-pick up.
  7: R hold.
  8: R hold.
  9: Not up (R)
10: Not up (D)
11: Not up (D)
12: Not up (R)
13: R hold.
14: Not up (R)
15: R hold.
16: Not up (R)
17: Not up (R)
18: Not up (R)
19: Not up (D)
20: Not up (R)
21: D hold.
22: Not up (D)
23: Not up (D)
24: Not up (D)
25: Not up (D)
26: D hold.
27: Not up (D)
28: Not up (D)
29: D hold.
30: D hold.
31: R hold.
32: D hold.
33: D hold.
34: D hold.
35: D hold.
36: D hold.
37: D hold.
38: D hold.
39: Not up (R)
40: Not up (D)
41: Litzow defeats Gordon by over 5. R pick-up.
42: R hold.
43: D hold.
44: Schmit leading Hobbs by 0.2 or 52 votes. R pick-up.
45: Hill defeats Oemig by 7. R pick-up.
46: D hold.
47: Fain defeats Kauffman by 12. R pick-up.
48: Bennett defeats Tom by 0.6 or 67 votes.  R pick-up.
49: D hold.


A total of 6 pick-ups for the GOP, resulting in a 25-24 Democratic majority in the State Senate, with two races way too close to call so possibly a 27-22 Senate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 02, 2010, 11:37:36 PM
Charlie Wiggins won Garfield County ???

He also got 43% in Columbia and 47% in Whitman and Asotin. Weird...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 03, 2010, 02:05:22 AM
STATE HOUSE:
  1-1: Open D, D leading by 2.8, D hold.
  1-2: Open D, R leading by 1.5, R pick-up.

  2-1: R hold.
  2-2: R hold.
  3-1: D hold.
  3-2: D hold.
  4-1: R hold.
  4-2: R hold.
  5-1: R hold.
  5-2: R hold.
  6-1: R hold.
  6-2: Ahern defeats Driscoll by 8. R pick-up.
  7-1: R hold.
  7-2: R hold.
  8-1: R hold
  8-2: R hold.
  9-1: R hold
  9-2: R hold.
10-1: R hold.
10-2: R hold.
11-1: D hold.
11-2: D hold.
12-1: R hold.
12-2: R hold.
13-1: R hold.
13-2: R hold.
14-1: R hold.
14-2: R hold.
15-1: R hold.
15-2: R hold.
16-1: R hold.
16-2: R hold.
17-1: D hold.
17-2: D open seat, R wins by 7.3. R pick-up.
18-1: R hold.
18-2: R hold.
19-1: D hold.
19-2: D hold.
20-1: R hold.
20-2: R hold.
21-1: D hold.
21-2: D hold.
22-1: D hold.
22-2: D hold.
23-1: D hold (leading by 4.9)
23-2: D hold.
24-1: D hold.
24-2: D hold. (leading by 3.7)
25-1: R hold.
25-2: Zeiger defeating Morrell by 0.6, R pick-up
26-1: R hold.
26-2: Seaquist (D-inc) leading by 2.9. D hold.
27-1: D hold.
27-2: D hold.
28-1: D hold (leading by 3.2)
28-2: Kelley (D-Inc) leading by 0.6. D hold.
29-1: D hold.
29-2: D hold.
30-1: D hold.
30-2: R hold (leading by 4.4)
31-1: R hold.
31-2: ID hold.
32-1: D hold.
32-2: D hold.
33-1: D hold.
33-2: D hold.
34-1: D hold.
34-2: D hold.
35-1: Haigh (D-Inc) leading by 0.6. D hold.
35-2: D hold.
36-1: D hold.
36-2: D hold.
37-1: D hold.
37-2: D hold.
38-1: D hold.
38-2: D hold.
39-1: D hold.
39-2: D hold.
40-1: D hold.
40-2: D hold.
41-1: Maxell (D-Inc) leading by 2.4. D hold.
41-2: D hold.
42-1: R hold.
42-2: Buys defeats Linville by 4.3. R pick-up.
43-1: D hold.
43-2: D hold.
44-1: Dunshee (D-Inc)  leads by 0.8, D hold.
44-2: R hold.
45-1: Haistings defeats Goodman by 2.4, R pick-up.
45-2: D hold.
46-1: D hold.
46-2: D hold.
47-1: Hargrove defeats Simpson by 15. R pick-up.
47-2: D hold.
48-1: Hunter (D-Inc) leads by 1.5, D hold.
48-2: D hold.
49-1: D hold.
49-2: D hold.

Republicans gain a total of 7 seats, for a 55-44 Democratic majority in the State House.

Taking too close to call seats (<3 margins) into account, there are 2 Republican wins and 7 Democratic wins. It isn't quite impossible but highly unlikely that the GOP will take the House.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 03, 2010, 03:56:19 AM
The Murray campaign is preparing for a recount.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 03, 2010, 08:00:55 PM
Zeiger's (R) lead is down to just 24 votes in the 25th, and Rodney Tom (D) has pulled ahead in the 48th!

Also, the Democrats losing in the 6th have increased a lot. Marr is at 45% and Driscoll at 48%... Probably won't win, but not the devastating margins we saw last night.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: fezzyfestoon on November 03, 2010, 09:08:46 PM
Dino Rossi is just going to lose it someday...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 04, 2010, 01:03:05 AM
King County has revised their turnout expectations from 68% to 71% to reflect the number of ballots arrived so far.

Turnout has already hit 80% in Columbia and Lincoln counties.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 04, 2010, 03:29:17 AM
Running very contrary to recent history, the ballot returns yesterday were significantly more Democratic than the election day numbers across the state. Very surprising. I think Murray's going to be fine now whereas yesterday I was deeply concerned.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 04, 2010, 03:30:37 AM
Running very contrary to recent history, the ballot returns yesterday were significantly more Democratic than the election day numbers across the state. Very surprising. I think Murray's going to be fine now whereas yesterday I was deeply concerned.

Yeah -- I'm used to that in King (and Murray was up to like 67% in the newer returns there), but not for Pierce and especially Whatcom, which is usually way more conservative in later waves.

I'd be very surprised by a Rossi win at this point.  It also appears to be saving Larsen.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 04, 2010, 11:22:16 AM
Brian Baird has bought a house in Edmonds... which is at the heart of the 1st Congressional District... which is about to be vacated by Jay Inslee's run for Governor.

Draw your own conclusions.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 04, 2010, 01:19:27 PM
Brian Baird has bought a house in Edmonds... which is at the heart of the 1st Congressional District... which is about to be vacated by Jay Inslee's run for Governor.

Draw your own conclusions.

His new job is in Everett, I think.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 04, 2010, 08:25:47 PM
Rossi has conceded.

Update on State House and Senate races coming later tonight.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 04, 2010, 08:52:07 PM
Will we be able to gerrymander Washington? Or do you guys use some sort of awful commission?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Free Palestine on November 04, 2010, 08:54:41 PM
Will we be able to gerrymander Washington? Or do you guys use some sort of awful commission?

You support Democratic gerrymandering?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Rowan on November 04, 2010, 08:58:09 PM
Rossi vs. Cantwell!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 04, 2010, 08:58:44 PM
Will we be able to gerrymander Washington? Or do you guys use some sort of awful commission?

Our congressional districts are drawn by a bipartisan commission.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on November 04, 2010, 09:05:19 PM
Will we be able to gerrymander Washington? Or do you guys use some sort of awful commission?

Our congressional districts are drawn by a bipartisan commission.

Which is a great thing, considering that last census I'm pretty sure the Republicans were in charge, and this year was very close unfortunately.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 04, 2010, 09:36:22 PM
Turnout is absurd. Both King and Snohomish increased their "Estimated Ballots On Hand To Be Processed" today despite each delivering a full day's worth of tabulations.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2010, 09:39:20 PM
Will we be able to gerrymander Washington? Or do you guys use some sort of awful commission?

In my perfect world, a commission would draw all districts across the Fruited Plain, and try to create as many competitive districts as possible as its metric.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 04, 2010, 10:13:51 PM
I'm going to predict the legislature will end up being:
Senate: 27-22 D
House: 58-40 D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 04, 2010, 11:04:02 PM
Update on the competitive State Legislature races...

State Senate
LD-06: Baumgartner +8.16% (PICK-UP). Spokane suburbs swung really hard this year. Oh well.
LD-30: Eide +2.52%. Despite my dislike of Eide over her various driving-related crusades, if the trends hold she should win this.
LD-41: Litzow +3.28% (PICK-UP). Voters here must really like Litzow given his strong performance back in 2008 and this victory.
LD-44: Hobbs +0.66%. Hobbs has been gaining with every tabulation release. He's a crappy Democrat though and I wouldn't've minded to see him go.
LD-45: Hill +4.87% (PICK-UP). Hill raised a lot of money and was able to knock off Oemig in this swing district. Not much else to really say here; Oemig probably would've been able to survive any other year.
LD-47: Fain +10.96% (PICK-UP). Kauffman probably should've been able to do a little better here than she did, but this looks to be pretty much the same phenomenon as in LD-45.
LD-48: Tom +2.04%. This is a little surprising to me. I thought if Oemig was going to lose then Tom would've as well. I don't think Tom's challenger was quite as well funded.

Other new Senators not mentioned thus far: Steve Conway (LD-29), Maralyn Chase (LD-32), Sharon Nelson (LD-34), Nick Harper (LD-38), Doug Ericksen (LD-42), Scott White (LD-46)

State House
LD-01, Pos. 1: Stanford +4.48%. This one's in the bag.
LD-01, Pos. 2: Moscoso +0.06%. This is the first time Moscoso has lead in the counting and he's actually taken the lead in Snohomish county. Trends look good but this one is probably destined to go to a recount.
LD-06, Pos. 2: Ahern +4.50% (PICK-UP). This isn't the blowout it looked like it might be after the primary but we've still lost it.
LD-17, Pos. 1: Probst +6.52%. I really thought this one was gone. Pleasant surprise.
LD-17, Pos. 2: Harris +7.60% (PICK-UP). Meanwhile, I really thought we might have had a chance at holding this one given recent shenanigans by Harris. Oh well.
LD-19, Pos. 2: Blake +4.00%. I wonder if Sutinen's ballot label (Prefers Lower Taxes Party) helped him make this close or actually ended up costing him what could've been a victory. Regardless, Blake should be fine in the end.
LD-21, Pos. 2: Liias +7.52%. Liias survived what will probably be the closest scare of his electoral history in this seat.
LD-23, Pos. 1: Appleton +6.50%. I've never much cared for Appleton but congrats to her on the victory.
LD-24, Pos. 2: Tharinger +3.06%. Clallam still has quite a few ballot to count and Tharinger trails there... we may not be out of the woods here yet.
LD-25, Pos. 2: Morrell +0.22%. LOL Hans Zeiger. If the trend continues Morrell should survive here and maybe even without a recount.
LD-26, Pos. 2: Seaquist +3.92%. Seaquist is a grumpy old man but barring a reversal in ballot trends he'll be fine.
LD-28, Pos. 1: Kelley +5.10%. After a scare in the primary, Kelley kicked it into gear.
LD-28, Pos. 2: Green +2.60%. Green voted for the I-960 suspension and the tax bills. And yet she still looks headed to victory in this swingiest of swing districts. Hopefully she finishes what she started in 2000 and takes out Mike Carrell in two years.
LD-30, Pos. 2: Asay +3.5%. I'm surprised by the margin here but Asay will still win. Asay appears to be a legitimate moderate Republican so it'll be interested to see how she ends up voting.
LD-35, Pos. 1: Haigh +1.72%. Not sure why Haigh is performing so poorly; her opponent barely raised any money and she's been the incumbent here for quite some time. Looks liks she'll survive too though.
LD-35, Pos. 2: Finn +6.80%. To piggyback on the above, I would've expected Finn to have a closer margin than Haigh but apparently not. Finn's opponent was a real moron (though Haigh's wasn't much better).
LD-41, Pos. 1: Maxwell +5.14%. Folks seem to have taken a liking to Maxwell here. Cool.
LD-42, Pos. 1: Overstreet +7.00%. We might've been able to pick this one up any other year. Oh well.
LD-42, Pos. 2: Buys +2.08% (PICK-UP). Linville wrote the state budget. Awful position to be in if you're from a swing district like this one in a wave year. Whatcom still has around 1/3 of its ballots to count and if the statewide trend continues then maybe she can pull it off...
LD-44, Pos. 1: Dunshee +2.68%. I thought Hans was done for. His survival is great news for progressives.
LD-45, Pos. 1: Haistings +0.22% (PICK-UP). Goodman is one of the good guys (haha) and Haistings is a legitimate Rossi thug. Late ballot trends may push Goodman over the edge tomorrow or Monday. Keep your eye on this one.
LD-47, Pos. 1: Hargrove +14.20% (PICK-UP). Yeah...
LD-48, Pos. 1: Hunter +4.36%. It looked like on election night that Hunter might have been in some trouble but now it seems like he'll be fine.
LD-49, Pos. 2: Moeller +6.98%. Rumors of Moeller's demise appear to have been exaggerated, but he's still considerably underperforming what a Democrat in this seat should.

In intra-party defeats, J.T. Wilcox knocked off psuedo-Republican Tom Campbell for LD-02, Pos. 2. An unfortunate loss.

Other new House members not mentioned thus far: Andy Billig (LD-03, Pos. 1), Ann Rivers (LD-18, Pos. 1), Chris Reykdal (LD-22, Pos. 1), Laurie Jinkins (LD-27, Pos. 1), Connie Ladenburg (LD-29, Pos. 1), Cathy Dahlquist (LD-31, Pos. 1), Cindy Ryu (LD-32, Pos. 1), Joe Fitzgibbon (LD-34, Pos. 2), Kristine Lytton (LD-40, Pos. 1), David Frockt (LD-46, Pos. 1)

I cannot tell you how much pleasure I get out of not listing Shawn Bunney amongst the above.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 04, 2010, 11:12:13 PM
I've met Asay a few times as my dad's best friend has known her for years. She is definitely someone who is a moderate-to-mainstream conservative. She's definitely not a tea party-type conservative and seems to be a very nice and thoughtful person, but she is nevertheless a conservative, especially on fiscal matters.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on November 05, 2010, 01:57:34 AM
Will we be able to gerrymander Washington? Or do you guys use some sort of awful commission?

In my perfect world, a commission would draw all districts across the Fruited Plain, and try to create as many competitive districts as possible as its metric.

Ideally, it would create sensible districts rather than attempting to create competitive districts.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 05, 2010, 02:16:02 AM
Will we be able to gerrymander Washington? Or do you guys use some sort of awful commission?

In my perfect world, a commission would draw all districts across the Fruited Plain, and try to create as many competitive districts as possible as its metric.

Well, of course. But as long as Republicans are going to gerrymander Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, might as well let the Democrats gerrymander a few states to keep it fair.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Zarn on November 05, 2010, 03:52:59 AM
Because Washington's primary laws are stupid, we will never get Rossi (R) vs Rossi (D). It's the only way he could have won. A Democrat, of course would have found tens of thousands of ballots marked for Rossi (D) in King County at a Starbucks.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Torie on November 05, 2010, 11:56:07 AM
Will we be able to gerrymander Washington? Or do you guys use some sort of awful commission?

In my perfect world, a commission would draw all districts across the Fruited Plain, and try to create as many competitive districts as possible as its metric.

Well, of course. But as long as Republicans are going to gerrymander Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, might as well let the Democrats gerrymander a few states to keep it fair.

Yes, of course. Have fun in Illinois. That is going to be really acrimonious, as some Dems are asked to dilute their seats down in the Chicago area. How will that shrill liberal in the north shore Chicago City district like having her district made more marginal I wonder? Sure the GOP will lose one downstate seat for sure, no matter what. I wonder how Muon2 thinks it will work out.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 05, 2010, 12:33:31 PM
To add to the insane turnout reports, Pierce County's ballot return rates are currently tracking closer to 2008 than 2006.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 05, 2010, 05:45:03 PM
I think chances are fairly good that Wiggins will oust Sanders in the final count.  I haven't been tracking the race, so I'm not sure who's been doing better with later ballots.  However, I do know they've largely been more Democratic and urban, and urban Democrats are probably much more likely to be Wiggins supporters.

A pure extrapolation based on current results/ballots remaining estimates give this insane result:

Sanders 1,043,186 (50.02%)
Wiggins 1,039,835 (49.98%)
Sanders +0.16%

I'll update this (and see how it changes versus the over/under) as new results come in.

Just for fun, here's U.S. Senate (the real result will probably be even more Democratic based on tracking):

Murray 1,508,018 (51.83%)
Rossi 1,401,282 (48.17%)
Murray +3.67%

Latest statewide turnout estimate: 2,512,080/3,601,152 (69.76%)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Mercenary on November 05, 2010, 05:47:49 PM
Sigh, that judicial race is disappointing then. Ugh Seattle...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 05, 2010, 06:28:16 PM
Roger Goodman is now leading by almost a full point!! I'm very pleased to see that.

Larsen is also ahead by about a point now... I'm pretty sure he's going to win now.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 05, 2010, 07:45:58 PM
()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 05, 2010, 09:34:18 PM
Update: Wiggins pulls ahead in the projection, Murray improves, projected turnout jumps above 70%.

Sanders 1,027,478 (49.95%)
Wiggins 1,029,470 (50.05%)
Wiggins +0.10%

Murray 1,605,340 (52.11%)
Rossi 1,475,289 (47.89%)
Murray +4.22%

This is looking like about Wiggins +1 and Murray +5, but that's just a guesstimate.

Latest statewide turnout estimate: 2,538,069/3,601,152 (70.48%)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 06, 2010, 12:20:12 AM
Roger Goodman is now leading by almost a full point!! I'm very pleased to see that.

Larsen is also ahead by about a point now... I'm pretty sure he's going to win now.

Linville is also picking up ground (now only down by 545) with 17,000 ballots still to count.

It's entirely possible that Republican gains in the State House could be limited to three seats (LD-06 Pos. 2, LD-17 Pos. 2 and LD-47 Pos. 1).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: feeblepizza on November 06, 2010, 12:24:00 AM
I believe the race was called for Murray?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 06, 2010, 01:04:47 AM
Roger Goodman is now leading by almost a full point!! I'm very pleased to see that.

Larsen is also ahead by about a point now... I'm pretty sure he's going to win now.

Linville is also picking up ground (now only down by 545) with 17,000 ballots still to count.

It's entirely possible that Republican gains in the State House could be limited to three seats (LD-06 Pos. 2, LD-17 Pos. 2 and LD-47 Pos. 1).

Kinda interesting. I can understand why losses in the Senate are a bit more heavy---we're defending 2006 seats in 2010---but still, all we might lose in the House is Geoff Simpson and two open seats? lulz

If the GOP can't win the legislature this year, I think it's safe to say the Democrats will permanently control it for a long time, sort of like Massachusetts.

Furthermore, IIRC the 41st Senate seat we seemed to have just lost was a special election (due to Jarrett resigning) so that should be up again in two years instead of four.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 06, 2010, 08:37:05 PM
New updates from Kitsap, Pierce, Spokane and Whatcom.  Not much to note, other than that Spokane was rather "eh" for Murray and Wiggins continues to creep up, as does turnout.

Also, I'm not accounting for undervotes, which is why Murray and Rossi's raw votes keep going up and Sanders and Wiggins keep going down.

Sanders 1,022,686 (49.85%)
Wiggins 1,028,840 (50.15%)
Wiggins +0.30%

Murray 1,624,005 (52.04%)
Rossi 1,496,596 (47.96%)
Murray +4.08%

Estimated turnout: 2,543,198/3,601,152 (70.62%).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lunar on November 06, 2010, 11:36:16 PM
Does anyone else kinda feel bad for Dino?  Three spirited campaigns...you almost have to wonder if he had staked out claims as being an unquestionable moderate on one major issue area, how well he would have done.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 07, 2010, 12:12:11 AM
Linville lost some ground today; down 715 with 12,000 left to count.

Moscoso and Morrell widened their leads (Moscoso is out of recount territory and Morrell is out of hand recount territory).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 07, 2010, 12:22:22 AM
Why did this video of Sarah Sanoy-Wright (losing independent candidate in the 11th LD) not go viral?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2-I5Mn2b3M

WHY


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on November 07, 2010, 03:23:31 AM
That was one of the best things I've ever seen. I just subscribed and I encourage all freedom lovers here to do so as well.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 07, 2010, 05:24:19 AM
Does anyone else kinda feel bad for Dino?  Three spirited campaigns...you almost have to wonder if he had staked out claims as being an unquestionable moderate on one major issue area, how well he would have done.

Not in the slightest.  I am sick of seeing his face and watching his perpetual campaign of sleaze, hypocrisy, lies, anti-government babbling and thinly veiled social conservatism for the last 6 years.  The wave was the main thing which kept him competitive this time.  Otherwise Murray would have flattened him like a pancake.  He never staked out a moderate position because he is not a moderate.  

I wish Rossi well in his return to a real estate career.  Maybe we won't have him to kick around anymore.  


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 07, 2010, 05:48:19 PM
Does anyone else kinda feel bad for Dino?  Three spirited campaigns...you almost have to wonder if he had staked out claims as being an unquestionable moderate on one major issue area, how well he would have done.

Not in the slightest.  I am sick of seeing his face and watching his perpetual campaign of sleaze, hypocrisy, lies, anti-government babbling and thinly veiled social conservatism for the last 6 years.  The wave was the main thing which kept him competitive this time.  Otherwise Murray would have flattened him like a pancake.  He never staked out a moderate position because he is not a moderate.  

I wish Rossi well in his return to a real estate career.  Maybe we won't have him to kick around anymore.  

We won't be rid of Dino until he gets taken out by 15%+. These close contests simply keep his hopes up. Someday though he will fade away, we just need to give him a bigger smack of reality.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 07, 2010, 07:17:14 PM
New updates from Kitsap, Pierce, Spokane and Whatcom.  Not much to note, other than that Spokane was rather "eh" for Murray and Wiggins continues to creep up, as does turnout.

Also, I'm not accounting for undervotes, which is why Murray and Rossi's raw votes keep going up and Sanders and Wiggins keep going down.

Sanders 1,022,686 (49.85%)
Wiggins 1,028,840 (50.15%)
Wiggins +0.30%

Murray 1,624,005 (52.04%)
Rossi 1,496,596 (47.96%)
Murray +4.08%

Estimated turnout: 2,543,198/3,601,152 (70.62%).

Is there anyway you could adjust the Sanders/Wiggins model to account for the undervote? Given that it's so large, I suspect taking that into account may be crucial in getting an accurate projection.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 07, 2010, 07:48:54 PM
Yeah, I can assume the undervote tracks in those counties as it has previously.  Let me work on that.

It would also be helpful if anyone has election night totals by county


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 07, 2010, 08:09:35 PM
I don't know why I didn't think of this before...I'll blame it on long-term sleep deprivation.

Okay, so this race is insanely close.  I've created three different totals based on how many ballots King County has left.

Using the remaining ballot totals King County reports on its web site minus its counted total (178,700):

Sanders 968,116 (50.04%)
Wiggins 966,567 (49.96%)
Margin: Sanders +1,549 (+0.08%)

Using the remaining ballot totals King County is reporting to the SoS (195,000):

Sanders 973,221 (49.99%)
Wiggins 973,548 (50.01%)
Margin: Wiggins +327 (+0.02%)

Using the remaining ballot totals King County reported to callers-in on Friday night (204,757):

Sanders 976,277 (49.96%)
Wiggins 977,726 (50.04%)
Margin: Wiggins +1,450 (+0.07%)

Adding to this that late ballots seem to be breaking for Wiggins in King, and I'd say he's favored, but it totally depends on (historically inaccurate) ballot estimates and batch performance volatility.  Fun times!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Free Palestine on November 07, 2010, 10:59:39 PM
Isn't Richard Sanders a member of the Libertarian Party?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 07, 2010, 11:31:21 PM
I wonder if this goes to a recount how much time and money the campaigns and parties will spend on the operation.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 08, 2010, 04:44:54 AM
Isn't Richard Sanders a member of the Libertarian Party?

Formerly, he can't be anymore.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Free Palestine on November 08, 2010, 12:06:52 PM
Isn't Richard Sanders a member of the Libertarian Party?

Formerly, he can't be anymore.

The LP website has him listed as a contributing member.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: tpfkaw on November 08, 2010, 02:02:15 PM
The LP allows people to be members while being registered to or even holding office as a member of another party.  For example, IIRC Ron Paul is still a member.  That probably has to do with the fact that the criteria for "membership" is to send them $50 . . .


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 08, 2010, 04:19:49 PM
Isn't Richard Sanders a member of the Libertarian Party?

Formerly, he can't be anymore.

The LP website has him listed as a contributing member.

Judges are barred from partisan political activities and I assume the same is true of SC justices.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 08, 2010, 08:48:19 PM
I don't know why I didn't think of this before...I'll blame it on long-term sleep deprivation.

Okay, so this race is insanely close.  I've created three different totals based on how many ballots King County has left.

Using the remaining ballot totals King County reports on its web site minus its counted total (178,700):

Sanders 968,116 (50.04%)
Wiggins 966,567 (49.96%)
Margin: Sanders +1,549 (+0.08%)

Using the remaining ballot totals King County is reporting to the SoS (195,000):

Sanders 973,221 (49.99%)
Wiggins 973,548 (50.01%)
Margin: Wiggins +327 (+0.02%)

Using the remaining ballot totals King County reported to callers-in on Friday night (204,757):

Sanders 976,277 (49.96%)
Wiggins 977,726 (50.04%)
Margin: Wiggins +1,450 (+0.07%)

Adding to this that late ballots seem to be breaking for Wiggins in King, and I'd say he's favored, but it totally depends on (historically inaccurate) ballot estimates and batch performance volatility.  Fun times!

Update:

Sanders 969,349 (49.88%)
Wiggins 974,329 (50.12%)
Margin: Wiggins +4,980 (+0.26%)

Murray 1,301,798 (52.20%)
Rossi 1,192,053 (47.80%)
Margin: Murray +109,745 (+4.40%)

I think indications are good that Sanders is probably screwed.

Turnout estimate: 2,553,428/3,601,152 (70.91%)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 08, 2010, 09:50:10 PM
State Senate
LD-41: Litzow +1.52 (Is this race back from the dead? The margin's narrowing)
LD-44: Hobbs +1.22

LD-30 (Eide) and LD-48 (Tom) are safely Democratic at this point. LD-06 (Marr), LD-45 (Oemig) and LD-47 (Kauffman) are still gone. So it looks like Republican gains of +4 right now with the outside possibility of +3.

State House
LD-01, Pos. 2: Moscoso +1.50
LD-25, Pos. 2: Morrell +0.18 (Back in hand recount territory)
LD-30, Pos. 2: Asay +1.48 (Margin keeps narrowing - possible pick-up?)
LD-35, Pos. 1: Haigh +1.76
LD-45, Pos. 1: Goodman +1.94

Whatcom hasn't reported for today so no update on LD-42, Pos. 2 yet. I'm pretty doubtful that Linville will pull it out at this point though. Other losses are still LD-06, Pos. 2 (Ahern); LD-17, Pos. 2 (Open); LD-47, Pos. 1 (Simpson). Republican gains of +4 right now but it could be as high as +5 or as low as +2 (if Asay ends up losing in the 30th).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 08, 2010, 09:58:37 PM
Also, the 8th CD is going to end up much closer than the 3rd CD. DelBene is almost winning King County.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 08, 2010, 10:42:45 PM
After today's updates from Skagit, Snohomish and Whatcom, I think we can probably stick a fork in John Koster.

Tonight's final extrapolation:

Sanders 969,067 (49.86%)
Wiggins 974,482 (50.14%)
Margin: Wiggins +5,415 (+0.28%)

Murray 1,302,275 (52.21%)
Rossi 1,192,035 (47.79%)
Margin: Murray +110,241 (+4.42%)

Turnout estimate: 2,553,976/3,601,152 (70.92%)

Tomorrow, new numbers from: Benton, Clallam, Clark, Grant, King, Kitsap, Pierce, Skagit, Whatcom and Yakima, plus Cowlitz which claims to be done.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 08, 2010, 10:54:49 PM
The AP called it for Larsen earlier tonight.

Linville trails by 530 but with only 3,800 left countywide she's done for.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 09, 2010, 12:27:04 AM
Too bad about Linville...

Reichert got 52.78% in 2008. He's down to 52.79% with presumably tens of thousands of ballots left to count in the 8th, so he'll almost certainly fall below his 2008 number. A pretty poor performance...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 09, 2010, 12:29:57 AM
I also reckon DelBene's earned the right to take him on again.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 09, 2010, 12:33:38 AM
I also reckon DelBene's earned the right to take him on again.

...If she's willing to drop a few more million bucks of her own, maybe she'll do it. I'm also excited to see how redistricting will change the 8th. I think there's some potential it will become significantly less Republican if we get the 10th district.

I also noticed Rossi has fallen below his 2008 numbers in King County. Hopefully it will be safely into the >70 Obama territory by 2012. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 09, 2010, 02:11:05 AM
The AP called it for Larsen earlier tonight.

Linville trails by 530 but with only 3,800 left countywide she's done for.

WA Democrats survived the 2010 GOP wave much better than in 1994.  In 1994, all of the WA Dem Congresscritters fell except for Dicks and McDermott.  An 8-1 Democratic delegation was turned into a 7-2 GOP majority.  This time the only loss was the open seat in WA-03.  The losses in the state legislature have been much less severe also.  As bgwah noted, Rossi cratered in King County again.  Losing King 64-36 is basically impossible to overcome in a statewide race.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Torie on November 09, 2010, 02:24:55 AM
Hey, all you pinko WA commie libs. Does WA make this election a net plus for you, the way you humiliated the jack booted thugs in the promise land in a wave election for them outside this one particular sanctuary of sanity? Just asking. Cheers. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Dgov on November 09, 2010, 03:07:09 AM
Turnout estimate: 2,553,428/3,601,152 (70.91%)

Wow.  So that means that almost as many people turned out in 2010 as in 2012?  Obama won the state about 1.6 Million to 1.1 Million IIRC.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 09, 2010, 03:50:43 AM
Hey, all you pinko WA commie libs. Does WA make this election a net plus for you, the way you humiliated the jack booted thugs in the promise land in a wave election for them outside this one particular sanctuary of sanity? Just asking. Cheers. :)

I like your Colleen Hanabusa picture.  I also like the fact that California may have resisted the GOP wave even more strongly than Washington.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 09, 2010, 03:55:57 AM
Turnout estimate: 2,553,428/3,601,152 (70.91%)

Wow.  So that means that almost as many people turned out in 2010 as in 2012?  Obama won the state about 1.6 Million to 1.1 Million IIRC.

Turnout was 85% in 2008 and 82% in 2004. So we aren't quite at Presidential levels here but it's still ridiculously high for a midterm.

One factor that probably contributed to higher turnout apart from the general excitement about this particular election is the fact that back in 2006 King County still had polling sites open. Closing those doubtlessly increased King County turnout by several percentage points alone.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 09, 2010, 04:50:56 AM
There will be a projected 2,553,976 votes cast this year, and that number has been consistently rising.  In 2008, there were 3,071,587 votes cast.  In other words, 2010 raw turnout will be a full 83.2% of 2008's.

At the county level, this ranges from a low of 71.5% in Whitman County to a high of 127.5% in Franklin County.  Four counties report >90% retention versus 2008, and none of them are growth counties like Franklin:  Columbia (97.5%), Ferry (91.8%), Lincoln (91.1%) and Pend Oreille (90.6%).  Pretty insane when you think about it.  It's pretty near impossible to mobilize more voters than that in a non-Presidential year.  Go team.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 09, 2010, 05:37:15 AM
Just asking, but why haven't more states adopted the vote by mail system of the Pacific Northwest?
I'd expect that at least solidly Democratic states would adopt this system since it enhances turnout considerably. It seems to me that's good policy AND good politics for Democrats.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on November 09, 2010, 10:22:37 AM
How much of the turnout is the ballot by mail system and how much of it is demographics though? Does anyone have turnout numbers for WA from when they just did normal election day voting?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on November 09, 2010, 07:02:37 PM
Washington didn't reject the Republican wave. They just had a crappy person at the top of the ticket who couldn't even win after two cycles of name exposure. If McKenna had ran, the results would have been much different in the state.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 09, 2010, 07:07:21 PM
Washington didn't reject the Republican wave.

Which is why Larsen won, Reichert wins by less than 2008! and the Democrats retained both houses of the legislature. Right.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 09, 2010, 07:31:11 PM
And Wiggins is officially ahead by 3,491 votes. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on November 09, 2010, 08:04:08 PM
Hey, all you pinko WA commie libs. Does WA make this election a net plus for you, the way you humiliated the jack booted thugs in the promise land in a wave election for them outside this one particular sanctuary of sanity? Just asking. Cheers. :)

I like your Colleen Hanabusa picture.  I also like the fact that California may have resisted the GOP wave even more strongly than Washington.

It's not so much that we resisted it as that there simply was no such thing here.q


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 09, 2010, 11:39:28 PM
And Wiggins is officially ahead by 3,491 votes. :)

If Wiggins can pull this off it portends a big change in the balance of power on the WA Supreme Court.  Gerry Alexander (a swing vote/moderate Republican) has to step down in 2011 because of the age limit law for judges; Gregoire will appoint his successor.  If both Sanders and Alexander are replaced by more liberal justices we will likely see significant changes in the Court's jurisprudence in the future. 

I've heard both Mary Kay Becker and Mary Yu floated as possible successors for Alexander.  Gregoire will have to be careful to select someone who can win election.

God, I wish we could get rid of Jim Johnson, too.  I dislike him even more than Sanders. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 10, 2010, 01:55:54 PM
Weirdo and crappy Democrat Mark Miloscia (Federal Way) is running against Frank Chopp for Speaker. Good luck with that, Mark.

http://www.theolympian.com/2010/11/10/1434754/rep-miloscia-says-he-wants-to.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 10, 2010, 08:27:31 PM
Definitely looking like Randy Gordon just might win in the 41st...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 10, 2010, 08:46:36 PM
Larry Seaquist (Gig Harbor) has announced his intentions to run for House Majority Leader in the wake of Lynn Kessler's retirement: http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/2010/11/10/gig-harbor-rep-larry-seaquist-wants-house-majority-leader-job/

Ugh - can't some good Democrats run for these positions? Upthegrove? Hudgins? Dunshee? Even Santos would be fine.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 10, 2010, 09:26:57 PM
Bad news in the 25th LD. Zeiger has taken a 28 vote lead (nearly 50,000 votes were cast in total).

There are about 350 ballots left to count in the entire county; probably a few dozen of those come from the 25th.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 11, 2010, 12:52:36 AM
Bad news in the 25th LD. Zeiger has taken a 28 vote lead (nearly 50,000 votes were cast in total).

There are about 350 ballots left to count in the entire county; probably a few dozen of those come from the 25th.

The Morrell campaign is apparently almost camping outside the doors of Democratic voters with challenged ballots.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 11, 2010, 12:55:28 AM
Bad news in the 25th LD. Zeiger has taken a 28 vote lead (nearly 50,000 votes were cast in total).

There are about 350 ballots left to count in the entire county; probably a few dozen of those come from the 25th.

The Morrell campaign is apparently almost camping outside the doors of Democratic voters with challenged ballots.

Excellent.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 11, 2010, 02:43:49 AM
Bad news in the 25th LD. Zeiger has taken a 28 vote lead (nearly 50,000 votes were cast in total).

There are about 350 ballots left to count in the entire county; probably a few dozen of those come from the 25th.

Whaaaat?! Nooo!!! :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 12, 2010, 03:51:44 PM
Larry Seaquist (Gig Harbor) has announced his intentions to run for House Majority Leader in the wake of Lynn Kessler's retirement: http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/2010/11/10/gig-harbor-rep-larry-seaquist-wants-house-majority-leader-job/

Ugh - can't some good Democrats run for these positions? Upthegrove? Hudgins? Dunshee? Even Santos would be fine.



I got my wish! Declared candidates for House Majority Leader now include: Pat Sullivan (Covington), Zack Hudgins (Tukwila), Jeff Morris (Anacortes), Larry Springer (Kirkland), Hans Dunshee (Snohomish) and Larry Seaquist (Gig Harbor).

Not sure who the favorite here is; perhaps Morris. I would personally prefer Hudgins followed by Dunshee. Springer and Morris are moderates along with Sullivan while Hudgins and Dunshee are from the left-wing of the caucus. No one cares about Seaquist.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 12, 2010, 04:23:31 PM
Larry Seaquist (Gig Harbor) has announced his intentions to run for House Majority Leader in the wake of Lynn Kessler's retirement: http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/2010/11/10/gig-harbor-rep-larry-seaquist-wants-house-majority-leader-job/

Ugh - can't some good Democrats run for these positions? Upthegrove? Hudgins? Dunshee? Even Santos would be fine.



I got my wish! Declared candidates for House Majority Leader now include: Pat Sullivan (Covington), Zack Hudgins (Tukwila), Jeff Morris (Anacortes), Larry Springer (Kirkland), Hans Dunshee (Snohomish) and Larry Seaquist (Gig Harbor).

Not sure who the favorite here is; perhaps Morris. I would personally prefer Hudgins followed by Dunshee. Springer and Morris are moderates along with Sullivan while Hudgins and Dunshee are from the left-wing of the caucus. No one cares about Seaquist.

I don't know about this year since I don't live in the area anymore, but Springer used to have "Liberal Larry" on his campaign signs. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 12, 2010, 04:29:27 PM
Larry Seaquist (Gig Harbor) has announced his intentions to run for House Majority Leader in the wake of Lynn Kessler's retirement: http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/2010/11/10/gig-harbor-rep-larry-seaquist-wants-house-majority-leader-job/

Ugh - can't some good Democrats run for these positions? Upthegrove? Hudgins? Dunshee? Even Santos would be fine.



I got my wish! Declared candidates for House Majority Leader now include: Pat Sullivan (Covington), Zack Hudgins (Tukwila), Jeff Morris (Anacortes), Larry Springer (Kirkland), Hans Dunshee (Snohomish) and Larry Seaquist (Gig Harbor).

Not sure who the favorite here is; perhaps Morris. I would personally prefer Hudgins followed by Dunshee. Springer and Morris are moderates along with Sullivan while Hudgins and Dunshee are from the left-wing of the caucus. No one cares about Seaquist.

I don't know about this year since I don't live in the area anymore, but Springer used to have "Liberal Larry" on his campaign signs. :P

Interesting. He was a member of the Blue Dog-esque "Roadkill Caucus" last session and has never struck me as very progressive.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 12, 2010, 04:36:13 PM
The "Liberal Larry" signs were Republican knock-offs that linked to an anti-Springer web site.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 12, 2010, 08:07:17 PM
Zeiger's lead is now down to 18 votes. Pierce County says they still have the same number of ballots left to process that they did on Wednesday (350) so who knows how many votes are actually left.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 12, 2010, 08:11:28 PM
The "Liberal Larry" signs were Republican knock-offs that linked to an anti-Springer web site.

LOL, and I thought Larry Springer was cool! :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 12, 2010, 08:52:55 PM
Incoming ballots have basically slowed to nothing (King and Snohomish both have fewer ballots than they thought), Sanders is a cooked goose:

Sanders 971,686 (49.73%)
Wiggins 982,362 (50.27%)
Margin: Wiggins +10,676 (+0.55%)

Murray 1,314,239 (52.33%)
Rossi 1,197,159 (47.67%)
Margin: Murray +117,081 (+4.66%)

Turnout estimate: 2,565,061/3,601,152 (71.23%)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 12, 2010, 09:22:17 PM
Also, in another back-from-the-dead moment, Linville now trails by only 177 votes. This is destined to go to at least a machine recount and is only a few hundredths of a percentage point away from one by hand.

EDIT: Oh yeah, bets on when Linville's opponent comes out of the closet? http://www.vincentbuys.com/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 13, 2010, 06:11:53 AM
It's very important to note that many of the remaining ballots -- an estimated 20,000 in King County -- are suspended ballots that were challenged for signature errors.  Most of them won't be counted, as far as I know.

This is probably true in other counties' "ballots remaining" totals too, but I doubt there's across-the-board consistency on that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 13, 2010, 12:10:52 PM
It's very important to note that many of the remaining ballots -- an estimated 20,000 in King County -- are suspended ballots that were challenged for signature errors.  Most of them won't be counted, as far as I know.

This is probably true in other counties' "ballots remaining" totals too, but I doubt there's across-the-board consistency on that.

Though in close races the campaigns and parties are looking to make as many of those ballots valid as possible.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 14, 2010, 05:52:54 PM
Postscript from the Murray/Rossi race -- Danny Westneat writes that Murray lost men by 6 points but won women by 12, the largest gender gap of her electoral career:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/dannywestneat/2013389389_danny10.html (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/dannywestneat/2013389389_danny10.html)


It jibes with a post I wrote on October 29 -- that Murray appeared to be honing in on women voters and that I suspected there was "Rossi fatigue" out there.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=127060.msg2701795#msg2701795 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=127060.msg2701795#msg2701795)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on November 14, 2010, 06:41:48 PM
What is the composition so far of the next state legislature? Are Republicans in control of either of the bodies or are they still Democratic majorities?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 14, 2010, 06:48:38 PM
What is the composition so far of the next state legislature? Are Republicans in control of either of the bodies or are they still Democratic majorities?

Democrats have retained both.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 14, 2010, 06:54:13 PM
What is the composition so far of the next state legislature? Are Republicans in control of either of the bodies or are they still Democratic majorities?

Per The Olympian, there are three races in the state legislature which are still outstanding.  If the Democrats lose all three, they will maintain control of the Senate by a 27-22 margin and the House by 56-42.

http://www.theolympian.com/2010/11/12/1437858/18-votes-hand-recount-nears-for.html (http://www.theolympian.com/2010/11/12/1437858/18-votes-hand-recount-nears-for.html)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 14, 2010, 09:28:51 PM
I don't know if anyone knows about Dale Washam outside of Pierce County, but man, the News Tribune is on the warpath against him...not that I'm complaining.

http://www.thenewstribune.com/2010/11/14/1424046/gadfly-in-charge.html

From day two of making him their biggest story:

Quote
Richard Dale Washam, Pierce County assessor-treasurer, supports the rule of law – as long as he makes the rules and picks the laws.

...

Now that he’s the officeholder, his tune has changed. All complaints against him are bogus, meritless and unjustified.

...

He scoffs. He continues to demand legal retribution for his predecessor’s sins and shirks responsibility for his own.

I can't believe we elected this dude.

Yeah, I had no idea it was this bad. I thought he was just sort of an incompetent boob. Hopefully these articles will kick the recall effort into serious gear.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 15, 2010, 09:27:26 PM
Zeiger is back up by 28 :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 15, 2010, 09:34:27 PM
()

Hans Zeiger: Rob McKenna's love child?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 16, 2010, 07:04:36 PM
Gov '08 - Sen '10 Trend:

()

Ranges from 12.95 D (Benton) to 8.84 R (Whitman). Same color scales for both parties.

Guess Benton liked all that pork! And WSU doesn't bother voting in midterms, obviously.

Douglas had the smallest trend (0.0003) towards the Democrats. Neighboring Chelan had the smallest trend towards the Republicans (0.20).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 16, 2010, 09:46:17 PM
Dawn Morrell: Increasingly screweder by the day.  Sorry Meeks.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 17, 2010, 12:54:05 AM
Dawn Morrell: Increasingly screweder by the day.  Sorry Meeks.

:( The recount is on the 29th. I'll pray for a miracle.

Meanwhile, the Wiggins/Sanders race is now out of recount territory.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 18, 2010, 03:02:29 AM
Hans Zeigler (R) 24,877
Dawn Morrell (D) 24,838

Steve Litzow (R) 29,513
Randy Gordon (D) 29,371

Vincent Buys (R) 30,594
Kelli Linville (D) 30,436

Linville is dead in the water -- Whatcom is out of ballots.  Still, not a terrible showing, and she'll be back for 2012 if she wants to.

King has 15,000 ballots left, but especially since many of those are probably dead signature ballots, Gordon is probably dead too...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Torie on November 18, 2010, 03:18:13 AM
Do you guys get any idea of what the generic swing is to the Pubbies in WA in this election, versus 2008? One interesting thing in this election, is that in the present climate the swing seemed in general (with some variance at the top of  the tickets), to rather seamlessly flow through to almost every race, and it didn't matter much who was running - adjusting of course for the loyal GOP and Dem cohorts no matter what zones  (e.g., elite higher education precincts). I am beginning to appreciate that more and more, as I parse this election on a micro scale.

In Michigan for example, it is quite stunning. I mean, picking but one example, and there are many others in Michigan, Levin had a huge dump down in his numbers in his CD, outside his Jewish and black precincts, against a unfunded token zero for an opponent - at least I presume that was the case as to his opponent. In Levin's portion of southern Macomb County (middle to lower middle to working class white, and pretty heavily Catholic), his percentage dropped from 67% to 53%, while only dropping in his heavily Jewish and black portion of Oakland County, from 83% to 78%. Quite stunning, no?

And oh, what Dingell endured in his white precincts in Wayne County. Oh dear. But he did splendidly in Ann Arbor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Sam Spade on November 18, 2010, 11:56:12 AM
Do you guys get any idea of what the generic swing is to the Pubbies in WA in this election, versus 2008?

Almost certainly not as much as the national swing, but probably not as weak as CA.  I haven't really gone hardcore through the numbers though.

Quote
One interesting thing in this election, is that in the present climate the swing seemed in general (with some variance at the top of  the tickets), to rather seamlessly flow through to almost every race, and it didn't matter much who was running - adjusting of course for the loyal GOP and Dem cohorts no matter what zones  (e.g., elite higher education precincts). I am beginning to appreciate that more and more, as I parse this election on a micro scale.

Yep.  It is rather clear what was going on, where and why.  Not that this wasn't foreseen by a number of posters on this forum, although often in quite vague pronouncements

Quote
In Michigan for example, it is quite stunning. I mean, picking but one example, and there are many others in Michigan, Levin had a huge dump down in his numbers in his CD, outside his Jewish and black precincts, against a unfunded token zero for an opponent - at least I presume that was the case as to his opponent. In Levin's portion of southern Macomb County (middle to lower middle to working class white, and pretty heavily Catholic), his percentage dropped from 67% to 53%, while only dropping in his heavily Jewish and black portion of Oakland County, from 83% to 78%. Quite stunning, no?

And oh, what Dingell endured in his white precincts in Wayne County. Oh dear. But he did splendidly in Ann Arbor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Brittain33 on November 18, 2010, 12:00:56 PM
The flip side of the dramatic change in MI in 2010 was how the Republicans completely collapsed there in 2008 when McCain pulled out... MI is one of those states like CA where I don't trust PVIs because the Republicans absolutely cratered there two years ago. No doubt there was also a big drop in Dems, but they had further to fall.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: tpfkaw on November 18, 2010, 12:05:08 PM
Well, the Dems completely collapsed in MI this year.  I think it's just a very "swingy" state.  I do agree that CA is more Democratic than D+7 would suggest.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 18, 2010, 12:07:54 PM
Anyways, back to Washington...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Sam Spade on November 18, 2010, 12:09:03 PM
The flip side of the dramatic change in MI in 2010 was how the Republicans completely collapsed there in 2008 when McCain pulled out... MI is one of those states like CA where I don't trust PVIs because the Republicans absolutely cratered there two years ago. No doubt there was also a big drop in Dems, but they had further to fall.

Don't disagree at all.  Added to that is the fact that many of those MI CDs have normally been more GOP at the Congressional level than at the Presidential level and you have problems.  Of course, some of the states where Dems fell further were not exactly predictable based upon PVI, rather upon other factors.

In CA, the PVIs worked pretty well.  If anything, Dems overperformed with a few interesting exceptions.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 18, 2010, 02:38:51 PM
Do you guys get any idea of what the generic swing is to the Pubbies in WA in this election, versus 2008? One interesting thing in this election, is that in the present climate the swing seemed in general (with some variance at the top of  the tickets), to rather seamlessly flow through to almost every race, and it didn't matter much who was running - adjusting of course for the loyal GOP and Dem cohorts no matter what zones  (e.g., elite higher education precincts). I am beginning to appreciate that more and more, as I parse this election on a micro scale.

In Michigan for example, it is quite stunning. I mean, picking but one example, and there are many others in Michigan, Levin had a huge dump down in his numbers in his CD, outside his Jewish and black precincts, against a unfunded token zero for an opponent - at least I presume that was the case as to his opponent. In Levin's portion of southern Macomb County (middle to lower middle to working class white, and pretty heavily Catholic), his percentage dropped from 67% to 53%, while only dropping in his heavily Jewish and black portion of Oakland County, from 83% to 78%. Quite stunning, no?

And oh, what Dingell endured in his white precincts in Wayne County. Oh dear. But he did splendidly in Ann Arbor.

The WA Dems lost most of their 06/08 gains, but not all of them. I would say they're still a bit stronger than in 2004. WA-3 was an anomaly that has been corrected, and it was going to be Republican in 2012 after redistricting anyway.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 18, 2010, 08:30:09 PM
Updates on the 25th LD recount:

- Currently a 38 vote margin (0.08%).
- 151 ballots in the 25th LD still have signature issues (131 mismatches, 20 unsigned envelopes).
- The Pierce County Auditor sent all these voters a letter. And called them. And called them again Wednesday. And called them again today. And will call them again on Friday.
- Those 151 voters have until the 22nd to rectify their ballot issues.
- 324 voters in the 25th LD have already rectified their ballot issues.
- Military and overseas votes can still be received until certification on the 23rd.
- The recount will start on the 29th. They're hoping to have it all done in five days. They'll work 8 AM to 5 PM shifts.

Oh yeah, the whole thing is going to cost the county $75,000.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Torie on November 18, 2010, 09:59:52 PM
I must say that is ludicrous. If voters can't do it right, f them. To spend all that money that way is pathetic. JMO.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 18, 2010, 10:04:06 PM
I must say that is ludicrous. If voters can't do it right, f them. To spend all that money that way is pathetic. JMO.

Most of the costs are staffing the recount and not the repeated phoning of voters. Though I do agree that it does seem a bit excessive... especially given the fact that the parties are going to do this as well.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 18, 2010, 10:05:34 PM
Don't know if this has been posted yet, but LD results for King County: http://your.kingcounty.gov/elections/elections/201011/General2010Abstract.pdf

Seattle is probably about 78-79 or so Murray. Can't say for certain due to the 11th and 34th districts being split.

A precinct map of liquor privatization will be interesting, since there is little partisan correlation.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 18, 2010, 10:38:04 PM
I wonder how many of the voters are Internet registrants who have to submit a signature before they can vote.  I've never quite figured out how that works with our system.  Anyone have any idea?

Looks like Dave Reichert's final showing will be almost exactly 52%.  He's probably gone in 2012 unless something changes or Darcy Burner runs again.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 18, 2010, 11:50:26 PM
Do you guys get any idea of what the generic swing is to the Pubbies in WA in this election, versus 2008?

The state legislature races are a good measure of grassroots movement.  The 2010 elections have ended four years of Democratic super-dominance and returned the body to the modest Democratic majority which existed prior to the 2006 elections.

2003-2004:  Senate R 25-24   House D 52-46
2005-2006:  Senate D 26-23   House D 56-42
2007-2008:  Senate D 32-17   House D 63-35
2009-2010:  Senate D 31-18   House D 64-34
2011-2012 (projected):  Senate 27-22   House D 56-42

The 2010 swing to the GOP was significant and not far off from the swing to the Dems in 2006.  The 2005-2006 and projected 2011-2012 numbers are about the partisan composition I would expect to see in Washington in a neutral political environment.  What happened in WA in 2010 was not a huge GOP wave, more like a course correction to the norm.

Historically, the GOP has been competitive in local district races.  However, they have continually failed in major statewide races -- a trend which continued this year.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Torie on November 19, 2010, 12:02:29 AM
Thanks Ogre. Very interesting. Can you put a percentage number on the swing that returned Washington from bordering on uber Dem to somewhat Dem as it was in the early 2000's?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 19, 2010, 12:21:46 AM
Thanks Ogre. Very interesting. Can you put a percentage number on the swing that returned Washington from bordering on uber Dem to somewhat Dem as it was in the early 2000's?

Math is not my strong suit.  Alcon?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 19, 2010, 01:28:20 AM
Thanks Ogre. Very interesting. Can you put a percentage number on the swing that returned Washington from bordering on uber Dem to somewhat Dem as it was in the early 2000's?

Math is not my strong suit.  Alcon?

I'll try to figure out what you two mean when I'm functioning on more than two hours of sleep :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 20, 2010, 06:09:01 PM
Pat Sullivan (D-Covington) has been elected House Majority Leader.

Frank Chopp was of course re-elected as Speaker.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 20, 2010, 07:18:38 PM
Pat Sullivan (D-Covington) has been elected House Majority Leader.

Frank Chopp was of course re-elected as Speaker.

So, he'll go from 10 years as Speaker to 12. He already held the record, I believe.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 21, 2010, 07:32:01 PM
http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2010/11/21/1730355/sen-cantwell-unlikely-to-face.html

lol. I hope Didier runs again... The results in Western Washington would be beautiful.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on November 21, 2010, 07:49:06 PM
http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2010/11/21/1730355/sen-cantwell-unlikely-to-face.html

lol. I hope Didier runs again... The results in Western Washington would be beautiful.

I hope Democrats have to face Reichert or McMorris Rodgers. They could at least make a close race.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: SvenssonRS on November 21, 2010, 10:21:26 PM
http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2010/11/21/1730355/sen-cantwell-unlikely-to-face.html

lol. I hope Didier runs again... The results in Western Washington would be beautiful.

I hope Democrats have to face Reichert or McMorris Rodgers. They could at least make a close race.

I hope they have to face McKenna, gubernatorial rumors aside. That would make them cry.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 22, 2010, 04:52:46 PM
http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2010/11/21/1730355/sen-cantwell-unlikely-to-face.html

lol. I hope Didier runs again... The results in Western Washington would be beautiful.

I hope Democrats have to face Reichert or McMorris Rodgers. They could at least make a close race.

I hope they have to face McKenna, gubernatorial rumors aside. That would make them cry.

Oh goody, look who can post again! :D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on November 22, 2010, 05:25:13 PM
I hoped McKenna would have ran against Murray this cycle. She would have gone down against him. Plus Republicans could have gotten Reichert to run for governor in 2012, so it is not as if they wouldn't have had a competitive race without McKenna.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 22, 2010, 07:49:27 PM
McKenna lost quite a bit of his appeal to moderates and Democrats as a result of joining the healthcare lawsuit. A lot fewer people are buying his moderate schtick as were a year or so ago.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 22, 2010, 08:03:44 PM
Morrell -47.  Can't see that happening.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 22, 2010, 11:26:18 PM
Morrell -47.  Can't see that happening.

Nauseating.

LD-42 continues to teeter on the edge of a hand recount.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 23, 2010, 12:58:56 AM
I hoped McKenna would have ran against Murray this cycle. She would have gone down against him. Plus Republicans could have gotten Reichert to run for governor in 2012, so it is not as if they wouldn't have had a competitive race without McKenna.

lol, sorry, Reichert would be a total joke as a gubernatorial candidate.  Even without his health issues, running for Congress is much less ... intellectually demanding than a governor's race.  In a contest that high profile, his shortcomings would be exposed very quickly.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013195971_reichertsaysnotfamiliarwithglasssteagallact.html (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013195971_reichertsaysnotfamiliarwithglasssteagallact.html)

Also, lol at D.S.'s notion we are "crying" at the thought of McKenna taking on Cantwell.  If he wants to try, bring it.  Y'all couldn't take down Patty even in a GOP wave year, so let's see you try and beat Maria in a Presidential election cycle.  It's not like there's a big record of success the WA GOP can point to.

It is still my prediction that McKenna will run for governor and the race will be closely contested.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 23, 2010, 01:06:03 AM
The State Senate race in LD-41 will go to a machine recount, but Randy Gordon is still screwed.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 23, 2010, 01:51:16 AM
The State Senate race in LD-41 will go to a machine recount, but Randy Gordon is still screwed.

At least it's a special election, so the Democrats will be able to get it back in 2012 instead having to wait for 2014. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on November 23, 2010, 02:00:42 AM
The State Senate race in LD-41 will go to a machine recount, but Randy Gordon is still screwed.

At least it's a special election, so the Democrats will be able to get it back in 2012 instead having to wait for 2014. :)

Still not looking forward to being represented by a Republican for two years... he's going to be tough to encourage higher ed. spending. bleh.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 24, 2010, 01:36:48 AM
Today was certification day, but several counties delayed the official meeting until tomorrow due to the snow. We still have final results though:

U.S. Senate
Patty Murray: 52.36%, Dino Rossi: 47.64%

U.S. House
WA-01 - Jay Inslee: 57.67%, James Watkins: 42.33%
WA-02 - Rick Larsen: 51.07%, John Koster: 48.93%
WA-03 - Jaime Herrera: 52.97%, Denny Heck: 47.03%
WA-04 - Doc Hastings: 67.64%, Jay Clough: 32.36%
WA-05 - Cathy McMorris Rodgers: 63.67%, Daryl Romeyn: 36.33%
WA-06 - Norm Dicks: 58.04%, Doug Cloud: 41.96%
WA-07 - Jim McDermott: 82.97%, Bob Jeffers-Schroder: 17.03%
WA-08 - Dave Reichert: 52.05%, Suzan DelBene: 47.95%
WA-09 - Adam Smith: 54.85%, Dick Muri: 45.15%

State Senate
Democrats: 27, Republicans: 22
(Republicans +4 - LD-06, LD-41, LD-45, LD-47)

State House
Democrats: 56, Republicans: 42
(Republicans +5 - LD-06 Pos. 2, LD-17 Pos. 2, LD-25 Pos. 2, LD-42 Pos. 2, LD-47 Pos. 1)

State Supreme Court
Charlie Wiggins: 50.34%, Richard Sanders: 49.66%

Ballot Measures
I-1053 - Yes: 63.75%, No: 36.25%
I-1082 - No: 59.09%, Yes: 40.91%
I-1098 - No: 64.15%, Yes: 35.85%
I-1100 - No: 53.43%, Yes: 46.57%
I-1105 - No: 65.04%, Yes: 34.96%
I-1107 - Yes: 60.44%, No: 39.56%
R-52 - No: 53.77%, Yes: 46.23%
SJR 8225 - Yes: 52.01%, No: 47.99%
ESHJR 4220 - Yes: 84.62%, No: 15.38%

None of the recounts are going to change anything. Thus ends Election 2010.

With that being finished, I'm going to disappear into the great beyond for a while. Not sure when I'll be back. Take care all. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on November 25, 2010, 04:03:15 AM
I hoped McKenna would have ran against Murray this cycle. She would have gone down against him. Plus Republicans could have gotten Reichert to run for governor in 2012, so it is not as if they wouldn't have had a competitive race without McKenna.

lol, sorry, Reichert would be a total joke as a gubernatorial candidate.  Even without his health issues, running for Congress is much less ... intellectually demanding than a governor's race.  In a contest that high profile, his shortcomings would be exposed very quickly.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013195971_reichertsaysnotfamiliarwithglasssteagallact.html (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013195971_reichertsaysnotfamiliarwithglasssteagallact.html)

Also, lol at D.S.'s notion we are "crying" at the thought of McKenna taking on Cantwell.  If he wants to try, bring it.  Y'all couldn't take down Patty even in a GOP wave year, so let's see you try and beat Maria in a Presidential election cycle.  It's not like there's a big record of success the WA GOP can point to.

It is still my prediction that McKenna will run for governor and the race will be closely contested.


Well maybe he isn't the best example, but the Republican bench in Washington is much stronger than say a place like California.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 25, 2010, 04:51:30 AM
I hoped McKenna would have ran against Murray this cycle. She would have gone down against him. Plus Republicans could have gotten Reichert to run for governor in 2012, so it is not as if they wouldn't have had a competitive race without McKenna.

lol, sorry, Reichert would be a total joke as a gubernatorial candidate.  Even without his health issues, running for Congress is much less ... intellectually demanding than a governor's race.  In a contest that high profile, his shortcomings would be exposed very quickly.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013195971_reichertsaysnotfamiliarwithglasssteagallact.html (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013195971_reichertsaysnotfamiliarwithglasssteagallact.html)

Also, lol at D.S.'s notion we are "crying" at the thought of McKenna taking on Cantwell.  If he wants to try, bring it.  Y'all couldn't take down Patty even in a GOP wave year, so let's see you try and beat Maria in a Presidential election cycle.  It's not like there's a big record of success the WA GOP can point to.

It is still my prediction that McKenna will run for governor and the race will be closely contested.


Well maybe he isn't the best example, but the Republican bench in Washington is much stronger than say a place like California.

Well, one is greater than zero, I guess.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 26, 2010, 02:32:39 AM
I hoped McKenna would have ran against Murray this cycle. She would have gone down against him. Plus Republicans could have gotten Reichert to run for governor in 2012, so it is not as if they wouldn't have had a competitive race without McKenna.

lol, sorry, Reichert would be a total joke as a gubernatorial candidate.  Even without his health issues, running for Congress is much less ... intellectually demanding than a governor's race.  In a contest that high profile, his shortcomings would be exposed very quickly.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013195971_reichertsaysnotfamiliarwithglasssteagallact.html (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013195971_reichertsaysnotfamiliarwithglasssteagallact.html)

Also, lol at D.S.'s notion we are "crying" at the thought of McKenna taking on Cantwell.  If he wants to try, bring it.  Y'all couldn't take down Patty even in a GOP wave year, so let's see you try and beat Maria in a Presidential election cycle.  It's not like there's a big record of success the WA GOP can point to.

It is still my prediction that McKenna will run for governor and the race will be closely contested.


Well maybe he isn't the best example, but the Republican bench in Washington is much stronger than say a place like California.

Washington state is extremely polarized, a reality thrown into sharp relief in the recent Senate race.  There is a large, strongly conservative base here that hates the left and is utterly closed off to any sort of appeal from Democrats.  The problem for the GOP is that there is an even larger hard-left base (much of it in King County) equally closed off to overtures from Republicans.  This is a huge hurdle for Republicans trying to win statewide.  

McKenna recognizes correctly that running for an open governor's seat is not the same as challenging a two-term incumbent Democratic senator in Washington state.  And Cantwell is not damaged goods.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 30, 2010, 07:51:46 PM
Patty Murray has agreed to head the DSCC in 2012.  I hope she blackmailed the leadership for something good in return for getting stuck with this a$$ed out job.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013555225_pattymurrayretakestopfundraisingjobfordemocrats.html (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013555225_pattymurrayretakestopfundraisingjobfordemocrats.html)


Jim Brunner at The Seattle Times has commentary and a map of the Murray/Rossi race in the Puget Sound region.  It is a good illustration of the high level of polarization in Washington state that I mentioned before.  Brunner notes:

Quote
But Seattle's huge gargantuan pro-Murray vote arguably outweighed every other factor.

Murray outpolled Rossi by 170,036 votes in the city. Her final statewide margin was just 118,766 votes.

()

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013555798_patty_murrays_urban_stronghold.html (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013555798_patty_murrays_urban_stronghold.html)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 30, 2010, 08:09:55 PM
Liquor will be interesting.  It did very well in the affluent exurbs.

Income tax is going to be fairly predictable.  Early preview:  Rich areas hated this.  It was in the 10%-20% range throughout the Medina/Clyde Hill area, parts of Bellevue, and places like Broadmoor.

Candy tax is also interesting.  That's one tax rich people were fine with; some trashier Seattle neighborhoods almost passed the repeal while Madison Valley/etc. were pretty solidly against it.  Doesn't seem like they're necessarily doing a map of that one.

Haven't loked at the Eyman deal yet.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 30, 2010, 08:12:00 PM
Oh, booze:

()

Income tax:

()

Links with larger PDFs:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 30, 2010, 09:19:03 PM
Liquor resembles D vs R more than I thought it would.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on December 01, 2010, 02:44:58 PM
I've been calculating the I-1053 results (2/3 congressional majority to raise taxes) by city/town, and so far I've only counted a handful of them (besides Seattle) which have rejected it:



Bellingham (Whatcom County): 53% no, 47% yes

Port Townsend (Jefferson County):  59.9% no, 40.1% yes

Olympia (Thurston County): 58.5% no, 41.5% yes



I still have to count the towns in San Juan County, which was the only county to reject I-1053. 

I still have to get the results from Bainbridge (Kitsap County) and Vanshon (King County) which often give Democrats 70% or 80% of the vote.




Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 02, 2010, 12:14:55 AM
Bainbridge Island voted 56% No on I-1053.  (52% Yes on I-1098, too.  Considering what comparably wealthy Seattle suburbs thought of income tax, I think we can basically say Bainbridge votes as part of Seattle now.)

Vashon isn't a city, it's unincorporated...I can get their results tomorrow.

The only incorporated place in San Juan County is Friday Harbor, which is more conservative than the county as a whole.  Friday Harbor voted 54% Yes on I-1053.  It failed the county because it lost soundly on Lopez Island.

I imagine a few other random highly liberal towns (at least a few of Langley, Index, Nespelem, Winthrop, Olympia, Lake Forest Park) also voted No on 1053.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on December 02, 2010, 10:28:41 PM
Bainbridge Island voted 56% No on I-1053.  (52% Yes on I-1098, too.  Considering what comparably wealthy Seattle suburbs thought of income tax, I think we can basically say Bainbridge votes as part of Seattle now.)

Vashon isn't a city, it's unincorporated...I can get their results tomorrow.

The only incorporated place in San Juan County is Friday Harbor, which is more conservative than the county as a whole.  Friday Harbor voted 54% Yes on I-1053.  It failed the county because it lost soundly on Lopez Island.

I imagine a few other random highly liberal towns (at least a few of Langley, Index, Nespelem, Winthrop, Olympia, Lake Forest Park) also voted No on 1053.

I got Olympia already.  ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Torie on December 02, 2010, 10:44:47 PM
Liquor will be interesting.  It did very well in the affluent exurbs.

Income tax is going to be fairly predictable.  Early preview:  Rich areas hated this.  It was in the 10%-20% range throughout the Medina/Clyde Hill area, parts of Bellevue, and places like Broadmoor.

Candy tax is also interesting.  That's one tax rich people were fine with; parts of Seattle almost passed the repeal.  Doesn't seem like they're necessarily doing a map of that one.

Haven't loked at the Eyman deal yet.

Rich liberals want a costly state, but are unwilling to tax themselves for it, eh?  I guess that makes them as useless as most groups that trim when it comes to public policy versus their self interest.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 03, 2010, 03:39:49 PM
Liquor will be interesting.  It did very well in the affluent exurbs.

Income tax is going to be fairly predictable.  Early preview:  Rich areas hated this.  It was in the 10%-20% range throughout the Medina/Clyde Hill area, parts of Bellevue, and places like Broadmoor.

Candy tax is also interesting.  That's one tax rich people were fine with; parts of Seattle almost passed the repeal.  Doesn't seem like they're necessarily doing a map of that one.

Haven't loked at the Eyman deal yet.

Rich liberals want a costly state, but are unwilling to tax themselves for it, eh?  I guess that makes them as useless as most groups that trim when it comes to public policy versus their self interest.

Broadmoor, Clyde Hill, and Medina are the most Republican parts of inner King County.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Verily on December 03, 2010, 04:22:10 PM
Liquor will be interesting.  It did very well in the affluent exurbs.

Income tax is going to be fairly predictable.  Early preview:  Rich areas hated this.  It was in the 10%-20% range throughout the Medina/Clyde Hill area, parts of Bellevue, and places like Broadmoor.

Candy tax is also interesting.  That's one tax rich people were fine with; parts of Seattle almost passed the repeal.  Doesn't seem like they're necessarily doing a map of that one.

Haven't loked at the Eyman deal yet.

Rich liberals want a costly state, but are unwilling to tax themselves for it, eh?  I guess that makes them as useless as most groups that trim when it comes to public policy versus their self interest.

Those are not liberal places he mentioned. Medina was McCain's strongest town in all of King County, IIRC.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 03, 2010, 04:46:34 PM
Liquor will be interesting.  It did very well in the affluent exurbs.

Income tax is going to be fairly predictable.  Early preview:  Rich areas hated this.  It was in the 10%-20% range throughout the Medina/Clyde Hill area, parts of Bellevue, and places like Broadmoor.

Candy tax is also interesting.  That's one tax rich people were fine with; parts of Seattle almost passed the repeal.  Doesn't seem like they're necessarily doing a map of that one.

Haven't loked at the Eyman deal yet.

Rich liberals want a costly state, but are unwilling to tax themselves for it, eh?  I guess that makes them as useless as most groups that trim when it comes to public policy versus their self interest.

Those are not liberal places he mentioned. Medina was McCain's strongest town in all of King County, IIRC.

Medina was Obama +8, not quite the worst (Clyde Hill +3, Black Diamond +1%, Hunts Point -13%) but these are all new converts.  These were solid Bush areas in '04, landslides in '00.  Still, though, you can't get <20% in even these towns without losing a substantial number of Democratic voters.  And indications from rich liberal condominium-land (Belltown, Downtown) suggest a good amount of bleeding there too.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on December 03, 2010, 07:05:26 PM
Patty Murray has agreed to head the DSCC in 2012.  I hope she blackmailed the leadership for something good in return for getting stuck with this a$$ed out job.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013555225_pattymurrayretakestopfundraisingjobfordemocrats.html (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013555225_pattymurrayretakestopfundraisingjobfordemocrats.html)


Jim Brunner at The Seattle Times has commentary and a map of the Murray/Rossi race in the Puget Sound region.  It is a good illustration of the high level of polarization in Washington state that I mentioned before.  Brunner notes:

Quote
But Seattle's huge gargantuan pro-Murray vote arguably outweighed every other factor.

Murray outpolled Rossi by 170,036 votes in the city. Her final statewide margin was just 118,766 votes.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013555798_patty_murrays_urban_stronghold.html (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2013555798_patty_murrays_urban_stronghold.html)

I have always wondered - What are those two Republican precincts around Sea-Tac?  Is one of them completely bounded by the Sea-Tac Airport?  What about that dark red sliver down by Kent near the Valley Fwy?

That 100% Democrat/Green precinct at the base of Lake Sammamish actually contains 2 or 3 housing units on the fringes of the state park.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 04, 2010, 02:42:46 AM
The Kent Valley one is Grandview (http://46dems.com/kcdems/precinctmap_print.php?pct=479) (click for map), a low-vote precinct of houses in that weird stretch of undeveloped farmland near Kent.  It tends to have pretty wild swings (it voted for Obama) but seems to default conservative.  A lot of the people who live there are sporadic/unpredictable ballot returners.

The SeaTac-area one is Tukwila 11-1167 (http://46dems.com/kcdems/precinctmap_print.php?pct=1167), which is basically just Southcenter Mall.  Other than maybe a hotel/storage resident manager or two, I doubt anyone lives there legally.  The people who vote there are generally Republicans, but there are only a handful.  I'll figure out where they're registered some day.

The one below it is Kent 33-0592 (http://46dems.com/kcdems/precinctmap_print.php?pct=592), which contains a huge industrial area, which probably has a few registrants, plus a small trailer park.  Rossi's win is actually an anomaly; it's traditionally a left-leaning precinct.

Overdale (http://46dems.com/kcdems/precinctmap_print.php?pct=882) (the Lake Sammamish State Park precinct) is just the park, as far as I know.  I remember finding where the registrants were somehow before, and I think they were all in the park.  It's always funny to watch; invariably all Democratic votes except there's obviously one Green there.  Reichert got 1 vote out of the precinct this year, which I think is the first time any Republican who wasn't a Sam Reed managed that.

Edit: Overdale people seem to be registered at 2000, 2004 & 2006 NW Sammamish Rd in the park (don't know where those addresses are physically), and they all seem to be park rangers and their families.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on December 04, 2010, 02:56:17 AM
Where can I find detailed precinct level results for King County?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 04, 2010, 02:58:57 AM
Where can I find detailed precinct level results for King County?

The canvass can be downloaded here (http://www.kingcounty.gov/elections/results/ecanvass/2010.aspx#nov), and there's a new data browser here apparently (http://www.datakc.org/Government/Election-results-November-2-2010-General-Election/jet5-cigp)...which is spartan, but not bad if you don't want to open the CSV in Excel.

I'm also happy to help/look stuff up.

Other tools:

* Precinct finder via Google Maps (http://wa-demchairs.org/2008/caucuslocations.php) (whole state)

* Precinct maps by LD (http://wa-demchairs.org/kcdems/districts/precinctmap.php?ld=27) (whole state)

* Old King County precincts by ID/list (http://46dems.com/kcdems/precinctmap_print.php?pct=592)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on December 04, 2010, 03:14:01 AM
Where can I find detailed precinct level results for King County?

The canvass can be downloaded here (http://www.kingcounty.gov/elections/results/ecanvass/2010.aspx#nov), and there's a new data browser here apparently (http://www.datakc.org/Government/Election-results-November-2-2010-General-Election/jet5-cigp)...which is spartan, but not bad if you don't want to open the CSV in Excel.

I'm also happy to help/look stuff up.

Other tools:

* Precinct finder via Google Maps (http://wa-demchairs.org/2008/caucuslocations.php) (whole state)

* Precinct maps by LD (http://wa-demchairs.org/kcdems/districts/precinctmap.php?ld=27) (whole state)

* Old King County precincts by ID/list (http://46dems.com/kcdems/precinctmap_print.php?pct=592)

The new data browser works alright for me and the CSV in excel looks awful. Thanks for the help! I looked all over their website for this and still couldn't find it for some reason. Oh and if you're interested in any Idaho data for whatever reason check here: http://www.sos.idaho.gov/elect/results.htm (http://www.sos.idaho.gov/elect/results.htm)

They have some decently organized Excel files with precinct level results. I'm sure you already knew this but it's somewhat interesting for primaries at least.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on December 04, 2010, 05:21:56 AM
The Kent Valley one is Grandview (http://46dems.com/kcdems/precinctmap_print.php?pct=479) (click for map), a low-vote precinct of houses in that weird stretch of undeveloped farmland near Kent.  It tends to have pretty wild swings (it voted for Obama) but seems to default conservative.  A lot of the people who live there are sporadic/unpredictable ballot returners.

The SeaTac-area one is Tukwila 11-1167 (http://46dems.com/kcdems/precinctmap_print.php?pct=1167), which is basically just Southcenter Mall.  Other than maybe a hotel/storage resident manager or two, I doubt anyone lives there legally.  The people who vote there are generally Republicans, but there are only a handful.  I'll figure out where they're registered some day.

The one below it is Kent 33-0592 (http://46dems.com/kcdems/precinctmap_print.php?pct=592), which contains a huge industrial area, which probably has a few registrants, plus a small trailer park.  Rossi's win is actually an anomaly; it's traditionally a left-leaning precinct.

Overdale (http://46dems.com/kcdems/precinctmap_print.php?pct=882) (the Lake Sammamish State Park precinct) is just the park, as far as I know.  I remember finding where the registrants were somehow before, and I think they were all in the park.  It's always funny to watch; invariably all Democratic votes except there's obviously one Green there.  Reichert got 1 vote out of the precinct this year, which I think is the first time any Republican who wasn't a Sam Reed managed that.

Edit: Overdale people seem to be registered at 2000, 2004 & 2006 NW Sammamish Rd in the park (don't know where those addresses are physically), and they all seem to be park rangers and their families.

Thx man you are a great resource as always!  The 3 housing units you described in Overdale  are located on Lake Sammamish State Park.  The King County Assessor maps those addresses to Washington State Park which makes sense.  There is usually a gate/barrier fronting said properties.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 05, 2010, 06:20:48 PM
So, Mike Hope is running for Snohomish County Executive. Would he be favored? He did pretty well in his re-election this year.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 05, 2010, 07:41:16 PM
So, Mike Hope is running for Snohomish County Executive. Would he be favored? He did pretty well in his re-election this year.

Hmm. Interesting. I kinda like Mike Hope. I've heard a lot of good things about him, and he's actually done a few things for people I know. Don't like his signs that blatantly rip off Obama's logo though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 05, 2010, 10:27:02 PM
So, Mike Hope is running for Snohomish County Executive. Would he be favored? He did pretty well in his re-election this year.

Hmm. Interesting. I kinda like Mike Hope. I've heard a lot of good things about him, and he's actually done a few things for people I know. Don't like his signs that blatantly rip off Obama's logo though.

I've also seen Reardon mentioned as a possible gubernatorial candidate in 2012, though none of it was even remotely concrete (like the comments we've gotten from Sonntag, McKenna, and Inslee).

Inslee seems to be shaping up as the left's candidate for 2012. I don't have a problem with Inslee but I just can't get excited about him.

I would like to see Constantine run for Governor, but it may be a little soon... Still, Gary Locke became Governor after 3 years as Kingco Exec, so why not?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on December 06, 2010, 09:49:40 PM
So, Mike Hope is running for Snohomish County Executive. Would he be favored? He did pretty well in his re-election this year.
I personally can't think of anyone in Washington statewide politics as repulsive as Mike Hope.  The guy's a shill for the police unions.  Think he will keep his day job if he wins?  I'd rather have John Koster for county exec anyday.





Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 06, 2010, 10:01:29 PM
So, Mike Hope is running for Snohomish County Executive. Would he be favored? He did pretty well in his re-election this year.
I personally can't think of anyone in Washington statewide politics as repulsive as Mike Hope.  The guy's a shill for the police unions.  Think he will keep his day job if he wins?  I'd rather have John Koster for county exec anyday.

Hmm, interesting. Sounds like Reagan Dunn.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 07, 2010, 08:08:59 AM
Tentative CD results:

1st: Murray 56.16%, Rossi 43.84% (Murray +12.31%)
2nd: Murray 50.52%, Rossi 49.48% (Murray +1.03%)
3rd: Murray 47.49%, Rossi 52.51% (Rossi +5.03%)
4th: Murray 35.64%, Rossi 64.36% (Rossi +28.73%)
5th: Murray 41.43%, Rossi 58.57% (Rossi +17.14%)
6th: Murray 53.06%, Rossi 46.94% (Murray +6.11%)
7th: Murray 80.95%, Rossi 19.05% (Murray +61.90%)
8th: Murray 49.23%, Rossi 50.77% (Rossi +1.53%)
9th: Murray 52.80%, Rossi 47.20% (Murray +5.60%)

I only have a couple of hundred unallocated votes, so those are pretty final.

LD overview by Murray:

1st: 54.45%
2nd: 43.07%
3rd: 56.39%
4th: 38.02%
5th: 48.50%
6th: 45.01%
7th: 33.93%
8th: 36.13%
9th: 37.75%
10th: 48.02%
11th: 67.35%
12th: 36.78%
13th: 31.70% (Murray low)
14th: 36.37%
15th: 42.39%
16th: 36.84%
17th: 45.03%
18th: 40.03%
19th: 51.01%
20th: 40.19%
21st: 57.94%
22nd: 61.71%
23rd: 54.70%
24th: 52.49%
25th: 46.25%
26th: 46.11%
27th: 62.82%
28th: 51.54%
29th: 60.28%
30th: 52.82%
31st: 43.96%
32nd: 65.06%
33rd: 58.47%
34th: 74.68%
35th: 48.54%
36th: 80.39%
37th: 85.53%
38th: 56.28%
39th: 45.20%
40th: 57.10%
41st: 55.81%
42nd: 48.73%
43rd: 85.98% (Murray high)
44th: 48.07%
45th: 52.53%
46th: 80.11%
47th: 49.78%
48th: 55.84%
49th: 54.42%

About 500 votes unallocated there.

Only McCain/Murray towns were Hamilton (76 votes -McCain/Tie), Hatton (only 17 votes) and Wilkeson (175 votes and McCain's win was an odd anomaly.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Stranger Than Fiction on December 08, 2010, 10:18:31 PM
LD overview by Murray:

1st: 54.45%
2nd: 43.07%
5th: 48.50%
20th: 40.19%
21st: 57.94%
22nd: 61.71%
23rd: 54.70%
24th: 52.49%
25th: 46.25%
26th: 46.11%
27th: 62.82%
28th: 51.54%
29th: 60.28%
30th: 52.82%
31st: 43.96%
32nd: 65.06%
33rd: 58.47%
34th: 74.68%
35th: 48.54%
36th: 80.39%
37th: 85.53%
38th: 56.28%
39th: 45.20%
40th: 57.10%
41st: 55.81%
42nd: 48.73%
43rd: 85.98% (Murray high)
44th: 48.07%
45th: 52.53%
46th: 80.11%
47th: 49.78%
48th: 55.84%

About 500 votes unallocated there.

Only McCain/Murray towns were Hamilton (76 votes -McCain/Tie), Hatton (only 17 votes) and Wilkeson (175 votes and McCain's win was an odd anomaly.)

Pierce County has really swung Republican.  I'm surprised Murray managed a majority in LD28 (Lakewood/Dupont/Steilacomb).  LD25 (Puyallup) continues to be a big sore spot.  Murray did ok in suburban King County, relatively speaking.

alcon - Thx for breaking out the votes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 08, 2010, 11:54:59 PM
I know bgwah likes to look at how 2010 compared to 2004.  The Kerry vs. Murray comparison ran pretty damn strong everywhere.  The few variances seemed kind of arbitrary.  Overall, Murray did 0.48% worse than Kerry.

The biggest positive differences were LDs 3 (+5.92%), 31 (+2.73%), 19 (+2.38%), 13 (+2.06%) and 39 (+2.00%).  Respectively, those are Spokane's core; Eastern King/Pierce exurbs; the Coast; Kittitas-Grant-NW Yakima; and the Cascade Foothills from Stevens Pass northward.

The biggest negative differences were LDs 8 (-3.61%), 37 (-3.31%), 16 (-2.39%), 46 (-1.92%) and 29 (-1.77%).  Those are Richland-Kennewick; Southeastern Seattle; Walla Walla-Pasco; Northeastern Seattle; and South Tacoma.

If anything can find commonalities there, good luck.  John Kerry sure blew it in Spokane, that's for sure.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 09, 2010, 04:34:58 AM
Richland-Kennewick, huh? That's interesting, since it was by far Murray's greatest improvement over Gregoire's similarly sized 2008 victory (and alternatively, Spokane saw a noticeable 08-10 trend to Rossi)

*re-posts 08Gov-10Sen trend map*

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 11, 2010, 06:40:08 PM
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Merry Christmas from the Washington Thread.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on December 15, 2010, 11:42:12 PM
()()()
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Merry Christmas from the Washington Thread.


LOL  Sam Reed


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on December 16, 2010, 03:47:22 AM
Sam Reed should take on Cantwell in 2012 with McKenna for governor. That would be the strongest ticket Washington Republicans have put up in quite a long time.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 16, 2010, 12:36:55 PM
Sam Reed should take on Cantwell in 2012 with McKenna for governor. That would be the strongest ticket Washington Republicans have put up in quite a long time.

One of the main reasons Sam Reed is popular is because he is not seen as ideological in almost any way. Why do you think he does so well in Olympia? It's not just because he's from there; it's also because he doesn't associate himself with conservatism. If we was a conservative running who was from Olympia, he'd lose Thurston County easily. He just runs on doing the job of SoS, which should be a pretty non-ideological position. If Reed runs for the Senate, he would have to take positions on every issue. Chances are, either liberals or conservatives are really not going to like what happens then.

At this point, it might be better to go the other way around. McKenna has already started to take ideological positions with his opposition to health care reform. Governor is a much less ideological position than Senator, and Reed might have a good chance at winning it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 16, 2010, 12:51:27 PM
A lot of Republicans are still bitter than he didn't rig the 2004 election for Rossi, too.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on December 16, 2010, 07:08:25 PM
A lot of Republicans are still bitter than he didn't rig the 2004 election for Rossi, too.

What would they prefer though? Blowing a chance at gaining the Governor's mansion or a senate seat? Or putting up an ideologue? I actually think realisticidiot has a point that maybe Reed should run for governor, and McKenna for senate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 16, 2010, 08:06:10 PM
A lot of Republicans are still bitter than he didn't rig the 2004 election for Rossi, too.

What would they prefer though? Blowing a chance at gaining the Governor's mansion or a senate seat? Or putting up an ideologue? I actually think realisticidiot has a point that maybe Reed should run for governor, and McKenna for senate.

McKenna isn't stupid. He wants to win, and he has a much better chance if he runs for Governor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on December 17, 2010, 03:44:26 AM
Kudos to Sen. Murray -- she has crafted a video for Dan Savage's "It Gets Better" project:

http://www.itgetsbetter.org/video/entry/2595/ (http://www.itgetsbetter.org/video/entry/2595/)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on December 21, 2010, 02:09:26 PM
And Washington gets its 10th district! Here's hoping for an Olympia-based district.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 21, 2010, 03:26:52 PM
And Washington gets its 10th district! Here's hoping for an Olympia-based district.

It seems most logical to me. The South Sound is such a mess right now.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on December 22, 2010, 03:16:13 AM
I meant to say this earlier, but....


()

WIIIIIIIIIINNNNN!!!!!   ;D ;D ;D ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on December 22, 2010, 04:40:43 AM
I meant to say this earlier, but....


()

WIIIIIIIIIINNNNN!!!!!   ;D ;D ;D ;D

You don't know that the new district will be safely Democratic though. It could be a swing district, or could take in parts of WA-3 and WA-4.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on December 22, 2010, 04:42:35 AM
I meant to say this earlier, but....


()

WIIIIIIIIIINNNNN!!!!!   ;D ;D ;D ;D

You don't know that the new district will be safely Democratic though. It could be a swing district, or could take in parts of WA-3 and WA-4.

Why are you so sure that there will be a new district?  There will be 10 new districts, some of which may bear some resemblance to the current 9.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 22, 2010, 11:02:47 AM
You don't know that the new district will be safely Democratic though. It could be a swing district, or could take in parts of WA-3 and WA-4.

Precedent says that it will be WA-3 that crosses along the Columbia River, making Herrera safe.  I think chances are pretty decent the new district will be centered around Olympia, although the entire South Sound is such a mess it's hard to say.

My guess is that the interesting stuff here will be what's done with the Pierce County hinterlands, most notably Smith's district (WA-9), which could find Republican areas dumped into it.  That, or the new WA-10 may take in the exurban southern parts of Pierce County.  I don't think there's gonna be any clean way of going about it.  The numbers worked out pretty well for the redistricting commission back in 2000 (look how clean the West/East divide was) and the current WA-9 is still pretty incoherent.  I think the most likely result is:

* WA-1 stays safe D, although might move into strong lean D if it shifts north
* WA-2 gets marginally more lean D
* WA-3 goes to lean R
* WA-4 stays very safe R
* WA-5 goes from safe R to very safe R
* WA-6 probably remains strong lean D
* WA-7 basically becomes permanently D>80%
* WA-8 becomes a district Reichert might not have won in 2010
* WA-9 and WA-10 lean somewhat D together, but the details probably depend on what happens with Olympia leaving the 3rd and Pierce County losing its chunk of the 8th; as well as possibly how the Tacoma part of the 6th is handled.

bgwah has looked at this more closely and might be more helpful.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on December 22, 2010, 02:14:21 PM
I meant to say this earlier, but....


()

WIIIIIIIIIINNNNN!!!!!   ;D ;D ;D ;D

You don't know that the new district will be safely Democratic though. It could be a swing district, or could take in parts of WA-3 and WA-4.


Well we still have a Democratic State Legislature.  And anyways, we get one more electoral vote!  :D



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 22, 2010, 03:17:52 PM
With Inslee running for Governor, hopefully they won't feel the need to keep northern Kitsap County in the 1st district.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on December 28, 2010, 09:02:57 PM
After looking at election results in Spokane, I've come to two conclusions: Spokane is more Democratic than most people think, there's just too many rural areas inside of the county that inflate Republican margins. My other conclusion is that it would be a great bellwether country for the nation if the rural areas could be cut out. It has a good mix of old working class neighborhoods, old lower and upper middle class neighborhoods and new suburban developments that reflect US politics.

Oh and Chris Marr was really, really doomed in 2010.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 28, 2010, 09:24:59 PM
After looking at election results in Spokane, I've come to two conclusions: Spokane is more Democratic than most people think, there's just too many rural areas inside of the county that inflate Republican margins. My other conclusion is that it would be a great bellwether country for the nation if the rural areas could be cut out. It has a good mix of old working class neighborhoods, old lower and upper middle class neighborhoods and new suburban developments that reflect US politics.

Oh and Chris Marr was really, really doomed in 2010.

The city itself leans D, sure. The suburbs (like Spokane Valley) are very Republican though. I would guess they have more to do with making the county R than the rural areas, though I'm sure those contribute, too.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on December 28, 2010, 10:26:13 PM
After looking at election results in Spokane, I've come to two conclusions: Spokane is more Democratic than most people think, there's just too many rural areas inside of the county that inflate Republican margins. My other conclusion is that it would be a great bellwether country for the nation if the rural areas could be cut out. It has a good mix of old working class neighborhoods, old lower and upper middle class neighborhoods and new suburban developments that reflect US politics.

Oh and Chris Marr was really, really doomed in 2010.

Did Murray loose Spokane this time around?  I wouldn't be surprised if she did.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on December 28, 2010, 11:16:13 PM
After looking at election results in Spokane, I've come to two conclusions: Spokane is more Democratic than most people think, there's just too many rural areas inside of the county that inflate Republican margins. My other conclusion is that it would be a great bellwether country for the nation if the rural areas could be cut out. It has a good mix of old working class neighborhoods, old lower and upper middle class neighborhoods and new suburban developments that reflect US politics.

Oh and Chris Marr was really, really doomed in 2010.

The city itself leans D, sure. The suburbs (like Spokane Valley) are very Republican though. I would guess they have more to do with making the county R than the rural areas, though I'm sure those contribute, too.

I did some calculations and without the rural areas, Murray would have got 46 to 47% depending on your definition of rural compared to the 43.7% she got. I'd argue that the rural areas are what make Spokane County lean R as opposed to a tossup/almost bellwether county though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 30, 2010, 12:06:15 AM
This is how I broke down Spokane County.  Murray won Spokane, but the suburbs (slightly more than the rural areas but not by much) were the deciding factors.  I basically treated anything not subdivided as a rural area, even though areas like Otis Orchards really are Spokane suburbs with suburb-sized lots on exurban grids.

City of Spokane (41%): Murray 38,385 (52.1%); Rossi 35,264 (47.9%)
Suburbs outside of City (35%): Murray 25,262 (39.6%); Rossi 38,490 (60.4%)
Rural (20%): Murray 12,291 (33.9%); Rossi 24,017 (66.1%)
Small towns (4%): Murray 3,046 (44.1%); Rossi 3,857 (55.9%)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 02, 2011, 11:10:34 PM
So, I was bored and did a quick analysis of the Dem/Rep performance change in the General, minus the Primary.  So, basically, this is an estimate of the partisan make-up of the new ballots between the 2010 General and 2010 Primary (less motivated voters and some mind-changers).  Everything is in % Murray

San Juan: 69.4%
Jefferson: 68.1%
King: 68.1%
Thurston: 58.5%
Whatcom: 58.4%
Overall: 56.4%
Island: 55.1%
Snohomish: 55.0%
Kitsap: 53.3%
Pacific: 51.8%
Pierce: 51.8%
Skagit: 51.5%
Grays Harbor: 51.1%
Mason: 49.2%
Clallam: 48.8%
Skamania: 48.7%
Whitman: 48.4%
Franklin: 48.3% (!!!)
Cowlitz: 48.1%
Clark: 48.1%
Spokane: 46.7%
Okanogan: 46.6%
Klickitat: 45.8%
Chelan: 45.3%
Benton: 44.7%
Yakima: 44.7%
Kittitas: 44.3%
Walla Walla: 44.2%
Ferry: 43.8%
Wahkiakum: 43.6%
Pend Oreille: 40.1%
Adams: 37.5%
Douglas: 36.9%
Lincoln: 36.8%
Lewis: 36.4%
Stevens: 35.5%
Asotin: 34.9%
Columbia: 34.0%
Grant: 32.5%
Garfield: 23.6%

And here is swing between new voters (and mind-changers) and Primary voters by county:

Garfield: -17.1%
Asotin: -13.5%
Wahkiakum: -4.0%
Pacific: -3.5%
Grays Harbor: -2.0%
Mason: +0.7%
Cowlitz: +3.3%
Clallam: +4.8%
Skamania: +6.3%
Kitsap: +6.9%
Columbia: +7.3%
Pend Oreille: +7.4%
Pierce: +7.4%
Thurston: +8.1%
Clark: +8.3%
Stevens: +8.4%
Lewis: +8.6%
Klickitat: +9.0%
Skagit: +9.3%
Spokane: +10.0%
Grant: +11.0%
San Juan: +11.0%
Snohomish: +11.9%
King: +12.2%
Douglas: +13.1%
Overall: +14.1%
Jefferson: +14.6%
Lincoln: +14.8%
Island: +15.7%
Walla Walla: +16.3%
Kittitas: +17.9%
Whitman: +18.4%
Whatcom: +20.5%
Ferry: +21.8%
Okanogan: +22.5%
Chelan: +25.4%
Yakima: +26.7%
Benton: +30.6%
Adams: +31.7%
Franklin: +44.5%

Didiermania!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 10, 2011, 11:38:34 AM
Once the state gets itself into gear and uploads the 2010 precinct results, I think I'm going to have some map fun with the initiatives.

Candy tax repeal map is ridiculously clean in most places.  For instance, mainland Kitsap County approved the repeal 68%-32% while Bainbridge Island rejected it 33%-67%.  That's going to be a perdy map.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 11, 2011, 01:41:26 AM
Once the state gets itself into gear and uploads the 2010 precinct results, I think I'm going to have some map fun with the initiatives.

Candy tax repeal map is ridiculously clean in most places.  For instance, mainland Kitsap County approved the repeal 68%-32% while Bainbridge Island rejected it 33%-67%.  That's going to be a perdy map.

Stupid Candy tax repeal.
By the way has anyone else noticed NPR's near constant coverage of "how are state tax cuts affecting you?" At first it was nice to see someone highlight the human aspect of the losses but it has slowly become creepy or overwhelming the intensity of the coverage.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: SvenssonRS on January 15, 2011, 04:04:08 PM
Quote from: Wikipedia
State Attorney General Rob McKenna is speculated to be a potential Republican candidate.[18] Former state Senator Dino Rossi, who ran unsuccessfully for governor twice in the previous gubernatorial elections and is now working at Everett based commercial real estate firm Coast Equity Partners, has not ruled out running again.[19]

*FACEPALM*


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 15, 2011, 04:06:35 PM
Quote from: Wikipedia
State Attorney General Rob McKenna is speculated to be a potential Republican candidate.[18] Former state Senator Dino Rossi, who ran unsuccessfully for governor twice in the previous gubernatorial elections and is now working at Everett based commercial real estate firm Coast Equity Partners, has not ruled out running again.[19]

*FACEPALM*

I highly doubt Rossi will run again.

Note, though, that I said the same thing about 2010. But I just can't imagine the guy running against McKenna. There was a lot of speculation that Rossi actually wanted to run for Governor again, but the party establishment was uniting behind McKenna, and that's why he tried running for Senate instead. Or something like that, I don't remember precisely.

If Reichert ever retired for whatever reason, Rossi might make an interesting candidate for the 8th district, I guess. But then there's Reagan Dunn to consider! Oh, the possibilities.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: SvenssonRS on January 15, 2011, 04:13:04 PM
Quote from: Wikipedia
State Attorney General Rob McKenna is speculated to be a potential Republican candidate.[18] Former state Senator Dino Rossi, who ran unsuccessfully for governor twice in the previous gubernatorial elections and is now working at Everett based commercial real estate firm Coast Equity Partners, has not ruled out running again.[19]

*FACEPALM*

I highly doubt Rossi will run again.

Note, though, that I said the same thing about 2010. But I just can't imagine the guy running against McKenna. There was a lot of speculation that Rossi actually wanted to run for Governor again, but the party establishment was uniting behind McKenna, and that's why he tried running for Senate instead. Or something like that, I don't remember precisely.

If Reichert ever retired for whatever reason, Rossi might make an interesting candidate for the 8th district, I guess. But then there's Reagan Dunn to consider! Oh, the possibilities.

That would be the only time I'd ever remotely consider supporting him again. He just can't be elected statewide, it seems.

Plus, a poll that I don't think was recorded in our database here showed McKenna obliterating one of the Democrats' best candidates, so I think it would be a much wiser decision just to stay out if he actually wants his party to win something again.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 15, 2011, 04:39:48 PM
Quote from: Wikipedia
State Attorney General Rob McKenna is speculated to be a potential Republican candidate.[18] Former state Senator Dino Rossi, who ran unsuccessfully for governor twice in the previous gubernatorial elections and is now working at Everett based commercial real estate firm Coast Equity Partners, has not ruled out running again.[19]

*FACEPALM*

I highly doubt Rossi will run again.

Note, though, that I said the same thing about 2010. But I just can't imagine the guy running against McKenna. There was a lot of speculation that Rossi actually wanted to run for Governor again, but the party establishment was uniting behind McKenna, and that's why he tried running for Senate instead. Or something like that, I don't remember precisely.

If Reichert ever retired for whatever reason, Rossi might make an interesting candidate for the 8th district, I guess. But then there's Reagan Dunn to consider! Oh, the possibilities.

That would be the only time I'd ever remotely consider supporting him again. He just can't be elected statewide, it seems.

Plus, a poll that I don't think was recorded in our database here showed McKenna obliterating one of the Democrats' best candidates, so I think it would be a much wiser decision just to stay out if he actually wants his party to win something again.

The only 2012 Gov poll I know of was McKenna vs. Brown...and she would most definitely not be the Democratic Party's best candidate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: SvenssonRS on January 15, 2011, 04:58:59 PM
Quote from: Wikipedia
State Attorney General Rob McKenna is speculated to be a potential Republican candidate.[18] Former state Senator Dino Rossi, who ran unsuccessfully for governor twice in the previous gubernatorial elections and is now working at Everett based commercial real estate firm Coast Equity Partners, has not ruled out running again.[19]

*FACEPALM*

I highly doubt Rossi will run again.

Note, though, that I said the same thing about 2010. But I just can't imagine the guy running against McKenna. There was a lot of speculation that Rossi actually wanted to run for Governor again, but the party establishment was uniting behind McKenna, and that's why he tried running for Senate instead. Or something like that, I don't remember precisely.

If Reichert ever retired for whatever reason, Rossi might make an interesting candidate for the 8th district, I guess. But then there's Reagan Dunn to consider! Oh, the possibilities.

That would be the only time I'd ever remotely consider supporting him again. He just can't be elected statewide, it seems.

Plus, a poll that I don't think was recorded in our database here showed McKenna obliterating one of the Democrats' best candidates, so I think it would be a much wiser decision just to stay out if he actually wants his party to win something again.

The only 2012 Gov poll I know of was McKenna vs. Brown...and she would most definitely not be the Democratic Party's best candidate.

State Senate president? I'd think that would be a pretty damn good candidate, myself, but I don't know much about Washington politics.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 15, 2011, 07:16:13 PM
She has poor name recognition (and those who do know her may simply know her as the income tax lady), and she has little going for her geographically. Candidates from the Westside would be favored in both party's primaries, I imagine, but especially so for a Democrat. What would her base be in the primary? Spokane vs. the Puget Sound? lol.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 17, 2011, 06:30:05 AM
^^

Also, "I've led the state legislature for several years" is a horrible way to be introduced to the current Washington electorate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 28, 2011, 06:10:15 PM
Quote
The group charged with redrawing the state's political map has chosen a chemist who used to work for the U.S. Department of Commerce to be its leader.

Lura Powell if Richland will chair the Redistricting Commission, it was announced Friday. She won't have a vote. The other members are former U.S. Sen. Slade Gorton and former state Rep. Tom Huff (Republicans) and former Seattle Deputy Mayor Tim Ceis and Dean Foster, former chief of staff for Gov. Booth Gardner (Democrats). A fifth, non-voting member will head the state Redistricting Commission.

The commission will have the rest of the year to come up with new congressional and legislative district boundaries. Washington state will get a new, 10th U.S. Congressional District after it was revealed that the state's population grew faster than most other states during the last decade.

For more on the redistricting process, click here.

Dr. Powell is well-known in scientific and biotechnology circles, and describes herself as nonpartisan or bipartisan without ties to either political party. Her selection was made by the two Democratic and two Republican commissioners who were previously appointed by the four political caucus leaders in Olympia.

Powell, a nonpartisan, got a doctorate from the University of Maryland in analytical chemistry. She is the retired director of the U.S. Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and was a high-ranking administrator with the U.S. Department of Commerce.

(Powell seems to be a secret Democrat or Democratic-leaner at least, but is squeaky-clean of affiliation on paper.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 28, 2011, 11:04:06 PM
http://www.rogergoodmanforcongress.com/

;D

Hopefully he's in the 8th CD come 2012. ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: jimrtex on January 29, 2011, 03:23:07 AM
Quote
The group charged with redrawing the state's political map has chosen a chemist who used to work for the U.S. Department of Commerce to be its leader.

Lura Powell if Richland will chair the Redistricting Commission, it was announced Friday. She won't have a vote. The other members are former U.S. Sen. Slade Gorton and former state Rep. Tom Huff (Republicans) and former Seattle Deputy Mayor Tim Ceis and Dean Foster, former chief of staff for Gov. Booth Gardner (Democrats). A fifth, non-voting member will head the state Redistricting Commission.

The commission will have the rest of the year to come up with new congressional and legislative district boundaries. Washington state will get a new, 10th U.S. Congressional District after it was revealed that the state's population grew faster than most other states during the last decade.

For more on the redistricting process, click here.

Dr. Powell is well-known in scientific and biotechnology circles, and describes herself as nonpartisan or bipartisan without ties to either political party. Her selection was made by the two Democratic and two Republican commissioners who were previously appointed by the four political caucus leaders in Olympia.

Powell, a nonpartisan, got a doctorate from the University of Maryland in analytical chemistry. She is the retired director of the U.S. Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and was a high-ranking administrator with the U.S. Department of Commerce.

(Powell seems to be a secret Democrat or Democratic-leaner at least, but is squeaky-clean of affiliation on paper.)
How common is the term "Banjo Belt?"


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 29, 2011, 06:16:29 AM
Quote
The group charged with redrawing the state's political map has chosen a chemist who used to work for the U.S. Department of Commerce to be its leader.

Lura Powell if Richland will chair the Redistricting Commission, it was announced Friday. She won't have a vote. The other members are former U.S. Sen. Slade Gorton and former state Rep. Tom Huff (Republicans) and former Seattle Deputy Mayor Tim Ceis and Dean Foster, former chief of staff for Gov. Booth Gardner (Democrats). A fifth, non-voting member will head the state Redistricting Commission.

The commission will have the rest of the year to come up with new congressional and legislative district boundaries. Washington state will get a new, 10th U.S. Congressional District after it was revealed that the state's population grew faster than most other states during the last decade.

For more on the redistricting process, click here.

Dr. Powell is well-known in scientific and biotechnology circles, and describes herself as nonpartisan or bipartisan without ties to either political party. Her selection was made by the two Democratic and two Republican commissioners who were previously appointed by the four political caucus leaders in Olympia.

Powell, a nonpartisan, got a doctorate from the University of Maryland in analytical chemistry. She is the retired director of the U.S. Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and was a high-ranking administrator with the U.S. Department of Commerce.

(Powell seems to be a secret Democrat or Democratic-leaner at least, but is squeaky-clean of affiliation on paper.)
How common is the term "Banjo Belt?"

You've totally lost me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: jimrtex on January 29, 2011, 12:22:46 PM
I was watching the committee discussion of the bill to split legislative districts into two house districts.  The sponsor Rep. Dunshee from LD 44, apparently previously represented LD 39, and was using that as an example of how the redistricting commission usually managed to satisfy the caucuses by generally not pairing incumbents (Dunshee was one of two exceptions in 2001), and gave as an example Rep.Kristiansen who lived south of him.

He made a reference to rural Whatcom County as being the banjo belt.  About 10 minutes later, another representative showed up, and complained about the insult to his constituents.  I think it was Rep.Overstreet.  I thought at first it was a joke, that he acting upset.  But it was apparent that he was demanding an apology for all the musically-inclined hillbillies of Whatcom County.

BTW, the district split bill is going nowhere.  Every representative was already calculating how it might effect him or her (one Seattle representative said that the district line would have to be drawn down an alley as another representative balcony overlooked her back yard).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 30, 2011, 12:28:06 AM
I've never heard of the term. Rural Whatcom County is usually just referred to as "the county" (how original!).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 30, 2011, 01:54:50 AM
I guess Ferndale is kind of rural white-collar, but the really conservative parts are Dutch Calvinist.  Even if they're farmers, "Banjo Belt" seems like a weird neologism to describe that part of the county.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 30, 2011, 02:11:19 AM
I think it's a Deliverance reference.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: jimrtex on January 30, 2011, 03:06:25 AM
I think it's a Deliverance reference.

Whatcom County is "Banjo Country" (http://mynorthwest.com/?nid=194&sid=418323)

It includes a clip from the movie.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 30, 2011, 05:28:51 AM
It's definitely a hick reference, Deliverance or not, which is totally not what I assumed the Dutch Calvinist ilk that make up the non-Ferndale part to be.  Or maybe there's just a lot of unreported forest rape.

Either way, Hans Dunshee is kind of silly.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on February 15, 2011, 07:16:44 AM
Who do you guys think will win the next gubernatorial election?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on February 15, 2011, 10:24:19 AM

He made a reference to rural Whatcom County as being the banjo belt.  About 10 minutes later, another representative showed up, and complained about the insult to his constituents.  I think it was Rep.Overstreet.  I thought at first it was a joke, that he acting upset.  But it was apparent that he was demanding an apology for all the musically-inclined hillbillies of Whatcom County.


;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 23, 2011, 03:25:12 PM
BREAKING NEWS: WA Census data released
Quote
The Census Bureau released Washington state's 2010 Census Data about two minutes ago. Here's the news advisory. We'll post more as soon as we look at the figures.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
WEDNESDAY, FEB. 23, 2011

U.S. Census Bureau Delivers Washington’s 2010 Census Population Totals,
Including First Look at Race and Hispanic Origin Data for Legislative
Redistricting

The U.S. Census Bureau today released more detailed 2010 Census
population totals and demographic characteristics to the governor and
leadership of the state legislature in Washington. These data provide the
first look at population counts for small areas and race, Hispanic origin,
voting age and housing unit data released from the 2010 Census.

The official 2010 Census Redistricting Data Summary File can be used to
redraw federal, state and local legislative districts under Public Law
94-171. The census data are used by state officials to realign
congressional and state legislative districts in their states, taking into
account population shifts since the 2000 Census.

Data for Washington show that the five most populous incorporated places
and their 2010 Census counts are Seattle, 608,660; Spokane, 208,916;
Tacoma, 198,397; Vancouver, 161,791; and Bellevue, 122,363.  Seattle grew
by 8.0 percent since the 2000 Census. Spokane grew by 6.8 percent, Tacoma
grew by 2.5 percent, Vancouver grew by 12.7 percent, and Bellevue grew by
11.7 percent.

The largest county is King, with a population of 1,931,249.  Its
population grew by 11.2 percent since 2000. The other counties in the top
five include Pierce, with a population of 795,225 (increase of 13.5
percent); Snohomish, 713,335 (increase of 17.7 percent); Spokane, 471,221
(increase of 12.7 percent); and Clark, 425,363 (increase of 23.2 percent).

The redistricting file consists of five detailed tables: the first shows
the population by race, including six single race groups and 57 multiple
race groups (63 total race categories); the second shows the Hispanic or
Latino population as well as the non-Hispanic or Latino population
cross-tabulated by the 63 race categories. These tabulations are repeated
in the third and fourth tables for the population 18 years and over and are
for the resident population of the United States. The fifth table provides
counts of housing units and their occupancy status.

These five detailed tables are available to the public online via FTP
download at <
http://www2.census.gov/census_2010/01-Redistricting_File--PL_94-171/> and
will be available within 24 hours at <http://factfinder2.census.gov>.  (
Access 2003 or Access 2007 shells or SAS scripts are provided to assist
with importing and accessing the summary file data from the FTP site.
These shells and scripts can be found at <
http://www.census.gov/rdo/tech_tips>.  This Web page also contains special
instructions for linking data downloaded from FactFinder and/or the FTP
site with the Census Bureau’s geographic products.)

By April 1, all 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico
will receive these data for the following areas: state, congressional
districts (for 111th Congress), counties, minor civil divisions, state
legislative districts, places, school districts, census tracts, block
groups and blocks, and if applicable, American Indian and Alaska Native
areas and Hawaiian home lands. In addition, data are available for the 46
states that voluntarily provided voting districts to the Census Bureau’s
Redistricting Data Program. Unique geographies for the Commonwealth of
Puerto Rico are also available.

Race and Hispanic Origin Data

The Census Bureau collects race and Hispanic origin information
following the U.S. Office of Management and Budget’s (OMB) standards for
collecting and tabulating data on race and ethnicity. In October 1997, the
OMB issued the current standards, which identify five race groups: white,
black or African-American, American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian, and
Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander. The Census Bureau also utilized
a sixth category — “some other race.” Respondents who reported only one
race are shown in these six groups.

Individuals were first presented with the option to self-identify
with more than one race in the 2000 Census, and this continued in the 2010
Census. People who identify with more than one race may choose to provide
multiple races in response to the race question. The 2010 Census results
provide new data on the size and makeup of the nation’s multiracial
population.

Respondents who reported more than one of the six race groups are
included in the “two or more races” population. There are 57 possible
combinations of the six race groups.

The Census Bureau included the “some other race” category for
responses that could not be classified in any of the other race categories
on the questionnaire. In the 2000 Census, the vast majority of people who
reported only as “some other race” were of Hispanic or Latino origin. Data
on Hispanics or Latinos, who may be of any race, were obtained from a
separate question on ethnicity.

Read more: http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/2011/02/23/washingtons-census-data-just-released/#ixzz1EodKsG5l


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on February 23, 2011, 03:31:50 PM
Every county grew except Pacific and Garfield. Not very surprising there. Franklin County saw the highest percentage growth. How much of that was Hispanic growth?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 24, 2011, 03:45:24 AM
I've just been idly playing by with the Census race numbers.  Here's a comparison of Seattle's % non-white versus its suburbs:

Bryn Mawr-Skyway 72.9%
Tukwila 62.4%
SeaTac 60.5%
White Center 60.4%
Renton 50.6%
Kent 50.3%
Federal Way 48.4%
East Hill-Meridian 46.6%
Burien 43.0%
Des Moines 42.0%
Bellevue 40.8%
Redmond 39.0%
Fairwood 37.9%
Newcastle 36.9%
Lakeland North 36.0%
Auburn 34.5%
Klahanie 34.4%
Seattle 33.7%
Shoreline 32.1%
Kingsgate 31.7%
Sammamish 28.1%
Kirkland 24.1%
Mercer Island 24.0%
Kenmore 23.8%
Union Hill-Novelty Hill 23.1%
Inglewood-Finn Hill 21.3%
Lake Forest Park 19.2%
Bainbridge Island 11.5%

For areas of 500+:

- Whitest Cliffdel CDP in Yakima County is 103/104 white; Spangle in Spokane County is 97.5%.

- Least white Yakima County Hispanic towns: Mattawa (3.3%), Mabton (7.0%), Wapato (8.0%), Toppenish (8.8%), Granger (9.6%)

- Blackest Easily Bryn Mawr-Skyway area south of Seattle (30.7%); runner-up is Tukwila (17.5%)

- Asianest Larch Way CDP near Lynnwood (33.3%), followed by East Bothell (27.7%), and the city of Bellevue (27.5%).  On the other extreme, Granger's Asian population is 0/3,246.

- Otherest Uh: Spanaway (3.9%), SeaTac (3.7%), Parkland (3.7%) and other declasse suburbs.

- Multiracial Indians, apparently: Elmer City (17.6%), Nisqually-Skokomish Reservation (13.0%), random other reservations.

- Hispanic No real surprise.  Mattawa (95.7%), Mabton (91.9%), Royal City (88.7%), Granger (88.2%), etc.

And, of course, every 10 years, the Census decides to make up weird names for their CDPs and introduce them as geographies.  Welcome some of Washington's newest communities:

Barney's Junction, WA
Bunk Foss, WA
Duluth, WA
Santiago, WA
Swede Heaven, WA
Torboy, WA

Big points if you've heard of even one of those places.

Still don't understand how CDPs work in light of the one-person CDP (Laurier) in Ferry County they made.  It's populated by a white-Asian person we're going to get to know lots of unnecessary information about.  Thanks Census!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on February 24, 2011, 10:45:57 PM
We got the monies!

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/boeingaerospace/2014320058_tanker25.html

So maybe we will be able to afford not completely killing off the state government? Or perhaps try to resurrect it in a few years?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 25, 2011, 12:22:09 AM
Every county grew except Pacific and Garfield. Not very surprising there. Franklin County saw the highest percentage growth. How much of that was Hispanic growth?

White +54.7%
Total +58.4%
Hispanic +73.7%

Great web site: http://data.spokesman.com/census/2010/washington


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 25, 2011, 03:29:33 AM
Playing around in Seattle a bit, some funny confirmations of the obvious:  Minority areas that become remotely trendy/attractive have experienced minority exoduses.

Beacon Hill's white population jumped while its Asian and Black populations cratered...we're talking down over a third in some tracts.

The Columbia City tract's overall population has fallen 3.8%, but its White population is up 47.1%.

In the Central District tracts, the white population is up 46%, and black population is down 40%.  Yes:  Nearly half of the Central District's black population has left in the past 10 years.  The last majority Black tract in the area went from 51%-36% Black to 54%-32% White.

Whether at the expense of Black or Asian numbers, Whites are gaining in every Rainier Valley tract (some of them strongly) unless I missed anything.

Overall, Seattle was;

Hispanic (regardless of race below): +35.7%
Multiracial: +24.3%
Asian: +13.9%
Other race: +10.6%
Overall: +8.0%
White: +7.1%
Black: +1.6%
American Indian/Alaska Native: -15.0%
Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander: -16.2%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 26, 2011, 06:47:06 AM
Stats by CD, with the population change needed to meet ideal district size, and then the racial demographics for residents 18+.  Forgive the dumb parenthetical names

WA-1 (Northern Seattle suburbs)
Change needed for ideal: -67,001
White 75.5%
Black 2.5%
Native 0.7%
Asian 12.0%
API 0.4%
Other 0.2%
Hispanic 6.3%
Multiracial 2.5%

WA-2 (North Puget Sound)
Change needed for ideal: -87,587
White 83.6%
Black 1.2%
Native 1.7%
Asian 3.5%
API 0.3%
Other 0.1%
Hispanic 7.4%
Multiracial 2.2%

WA-3 (Southwestern Washington)
Change needed for ideal: -106,894
White 86.0%
Black 1.4%
Native 0.9%
Asian 3.3%
API 0.4%
Other 0.1%
Hispanic 5.7%
Multiracial 2.2%

WA-4 (Central Washington)
Change needed for ideal: -101,955
White 67.0%
Black 0.9%
Native 1.6%
Asian 1.5%
API 0.1%
Other 0.1%
Hispanic 27.4%
Multiracial 1.4%

WA-5 (Far Eastern Washington)
Change needed for ideal: -51,155
White 87.1%
Black 1.3%
Native 2.0%
Asian 2.1%
API 0.3%
Other 0.1%
Hispanic 5.0%
Multiracial 2.1%

WA-6 (Tacoma-Kitsap/Olympic Peninsulas)
Change needed for ideal: -37,116
White 77.2%
Black 5.1%
Native 1.9%
Asian 4.9%
API 0.8%
Other 0.1%
Hispanic 6.5%
Multiracial 3.4%

WA-7 (Seattle area)
Change needed for ideal: -31,771
White 66.8%
Black 7.3%
Native 0.7%
Asian 14.3%
API 0.4%
Other 0.2%
Hispanic 6.9%
Multiracial 3.3%

WA-8 (Seattle exurbs)
Change needed for ideal: -138,300
White 74.2%
Black 2.8%
Native 0.7%
Asian 13.5%
API 0.4%
Other 0.2%
Hispanic 5.9%
Multiracial 2.4%

WA-9 (Weird Sprawl-Land/Olympia)
Change needed for ideal: -50,675
White 67.5%
Black 7.1%
Native 1.1%
Asian 9.6%
API 1.6%
Other 0.2%
Hispanic 9.7%
Multiracial 3.3%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 26, 2011, 07:08:51 AM
Oh, also:  The Census now has information (race and housing status so far) by precinct.  I think this might make for some fun summer projects if I ever can get MapWindow GIS to run on a 64-bit install of Windows 7.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 26, 2011, 10:16:55 AM
WA-05's Hispanic population is really that low?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Bacon King on February 26, 2011, 04:21:33 PM
Still don't understand how CDPs work in light of the one-person CDP (Laurier) in Ferry County they made.  It's populated by a white-Asian person we're going to get to know lots of unnecessary information about.  Thanks Census!

I'm laughing out loud at this.

Also, on the topic of weird CDP names, nothing has amused me more than Airport Road Addition, Texas (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airport_Road_Addition,_Texas).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on February 26, 2011, 06:17:06 PM
WA-05's Hispanic population is really that low?

Most of Washington's Hispanics live not terribly far from the Columbia or at least within its irrigation range, so it shouldn't be that surprising.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 27, 2011, 07:27:36 AM
WA-05's Hispanic population is really that low?

Like RI says, WA-5 is designed perfectly (although unintentionally) to leave Hispanics in WA-4.  They inhabit the picking country around the Columbia River, and in the Yakima Valley, plus Pasco, and then the farmland around Othello -- coincidentally the only part of Adams County that is not in the 5th.  (Othello is 77% Hispanic but Ritzville, the anchor of the WA-5 part of Adams County, is only 6%.)

There have never been established Hispanic communities in Spokane, Pullman, or the ultra-white Northeast and Southeast.  Okanogan County has some in the more agricultural areas, but no real concentrations.  The only populous area of the 5th that has a majority Hispanic community is Walla Walla, and it's small; they're just 22% of the city overall.

It is pretty impressive how concentrated Hispanics are in WA-4, but it's more of a coincidence of economic geography than anything explicitly political.

(Although, considering it's cheap and not prohibitively far from WA-4, it's a little weird that Spokane is still only 5%.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 05, 2011, 04:18:59 AM
The Washington House tonight passed a bill mandating the full conversion to vote by mail.  If the Senate passes it, that would force Pierce County to convert.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Torie on March 05, 2011, 12:52:14 PM
What are the tea leaves suggesting as to what will happen to Reichert's (sp) CD? Is he Pubbied up or Dem downed?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 05, 2011, 02:15:43 PM
What are the tea leaves suggesting as to what will happen to Reichert's (sp) CD? Is he Pubbied up or Dem downed?

It will probably get a little more Dem, perhaps by losing its southern Pierce portions for more of Kirkland/Redmond, but this is all speculation on my part. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 13, 2011, 12:33:44 AM
Based on the Census data, here's some correlation by precinct, by Census race, for the City of Seattle:

Approve R-71
White: +.471
Multiracial: +.014
Native American: -.122
Hispanic: -.148
Black: -.340
Asian: -.480

Murray U.S. Senate 2010
Black: +.269
Multiracial: +.231
Hispanic: +.137
Asian: +.041
Native American: +.021
White: -.189

Gay rights vs. Dem
White: +.660
Native American: -.143
Multiracial: -.217
Hispanic: -.285
Asian: -.521
Black: -.609


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 19, 2011, 06:20:25 PM
"Yakima doesn't even have a food co-op!"

-Sad lady at the co-op in downtown Bellingham.





...Well I thought it was funny!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 25, 2011, 07:30:21 PM
This thread sure has been quiet lately...

Any thoughts on the 2012 gubernatorial election? McKenna seems to be the de facto Republican candidate, though it isn't as clear for the Democrats. Inslee seems most mentioned so far, though Sonntag didn't seem very subtle about his interest in the office in the past (though I haven't read anything lately). And everyone is keeping an eye on Constantine, of course.

What about a Republican candidate for Senate? Will Didier try again? :P

We also have a a resignation in the House (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2014601313_resigned26.html). Special election in the 49th this November?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 09, 2011, 10:52:23 PM
Does anybody have info about Lisa Brown's possible run for Lt. Governor? It was mentioned in the Seattle Times, but that's the only place I've seen it mentioned thus far.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Bacon King on April 10, 2011, 08:52:58 PM
Does anybody have info about Lisa Brown's possible run for Lt. Governor? It was mentioned in the Seattle Times, but that's the only place I've seen it mentioned thus far.

Primary challenger for Owen or is he not running again?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on April 10, 2011, 10:41:08 PM
Inslee seems most mentioned so far, though Sonntag didn't seem very subtle about his interest in the office in the past (though I haven't read anything lately). And everyone is keeping an eye on Constantine, of course.

What about a Republican candidate for Senate? Will Didier try again? :P


Sonntag would be the most electable candidate by far. Constantine and Inslee are both similar in terms of electability, so not much interest there.

On the senate race, Cantwell will likely have a walk of a re-election, so I don't see there being anyone of not challenging her. Probably some generic Republican.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 10, 2011, 11:31:27 PM
Does anybody have info about Lisa Brown's possible run for Lt. Governor? It was mentioned in the Seattle Times, but that's the only place I've seen it mentioned thus far.

Primary challenger for Owen or is he not running again?

The rumor isn't clear as to whether or not she's trying to challenge him in the primary or just force him into retirement.

I've got no idea if it'll actually happen or not, but it wouldn't be a suicide mission on Brown's part. She's got better connections than Owen and she's significantly more liberal. She would definitely have a shot at beating him.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 18, 2011, 11:37:11 PM
Inslee seems most mentioned so far, though Sonntag didn't seem very subtle about his interest in the office in the past (though I haven't read anything lately). And everyone is keeping an eye on Constantine, of course.

What about a Republican candidate for Senate? Will Didier try again? :P


Sonntag would be the most electable candidate by far. Constantine and Inslee are both similar in terms of electability, so not much interest there.

On the senate race, Cantwell will likely have a walk of a re-election, so I don't see there being anyone of not challenging her. Probably some generic Republican.

I used to think this, but now I'm not sure. Sonntag manages to win by such large majorities because he appeals to more moderate Republicans and Republican-leaning independents... but I suspect McKenna would easily take a large majority of such voters against Sonntag. What does that leave Sonntag with? He probably couldn't even fire up the Democratic base, something Inslee or Constantine could at least do.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Napoleon on April 18, 2011, 11:47:33 PM
Washington is lucky to elect President and Governor concurrently.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 19, 2011, 01:25:18 PM
Jay Clough is going to run and lose again: http://www.tri-cityherald.com/2011/04/19/1456371/clough-not-shy-to-make-new-run.html?storylink=addthis


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 19, 2011, 03:48:23 PM
Jay Clough is going to run and lose again: http://www.tri-cityherald.com/2011/04/19/1456371/clough-not-shy-to-make-new-run.html?storylink=addthis

Unlike that other Democrat who could totally win. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on April 19, 2011, 10:17:18 PM
Washington is lucky to elect President and Governor concurrently.

I prefer to be guaranteed an interesting election every cycle. Having gubernatorial elections in Presidential years means if there's no Senate election up in a midterm there's no statewide election. This can diminish turnout and would favor teabagger type crazies.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Napoleon on April 19, 2011, 10:23:34 PM
If Washington's election was in 2002 instead of 2004, Gregoire would have lost. States with large Democratic cities tend to have better Democratic turnout in Presidential years. Elections are fun from the sidelines but I'm sure our washingtonians are thankful they haven't had a Republican governor in a long time.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on April 19, 2011, 11:28:27 PM
I actually think it's a better idea for every state to hold gubernatorial elections in an off-presidential year. It allows for a more equal opportunity to Republicans to win in Democratic areas, and Democrats to win in Republican areas. I think it would be highly unlikely that Henry would have been elected in Oklahoma for example, or Christie in New Jersey, if there elections were held concurrently with Presidential elections.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 20, 2011, 09:05:37 AM
Washington is lucky to elect President and Governor concurrently.

I prefer to be guaranteed an interesting election every cycle. Having gubernatorial elections in Presidential years means if there's no Senate election up in a midterm there's no statewide election. This can diminish turnout and would favor teabagger type crazies.

There's a great turnout benefit for Democratic states that have their gubernatorial races during presidential years. For instance, Tim Pawlenty probably wouldn't've been re-elected had you held your gubernatorial race in 2008 instead of 2006.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on May 01, 2011, 02:17:55 AM
Boring stuff mostly for my own archive:

I did a little statistical analysis of Seattle.  I established a "liberal index" for each precinct, using the obvious left vs. right ballot items.  Using that index, I established a baseline -- e.g., if your precinct is x% liberal overall, you should expect it to vote y% for Patty Murray.  For each precinct, I established which ballot items fared better than the precinct's liberalism would suggest, and which fared worse.  Finally, I compared these results to figure out:  If a ballot measure runs unusually strongly in a precinct, what other ballot measures are likely to?  Basically, this detects correlations while eliminating the variable of precinct ideology.  Only notable correlations:

* If Booze 'A' ran strong, Booze 'B' was likely to run strong.  Obviously. (0.69)
* If Candy Tax Repeal ran strong, Income Tax was likely to run strong. (0.66)
* If Patty Murray ran strong, Candy Tax Repeal was likely to run strong. (0.62)

...Definitely shows you the undercurrents of socioeconomic politics in Seattle.

Here's the correlation between ballot items and overall liberalness of ballots cast:

No on Eyman Tax Limits: +0.96
Approve School Green Energy Bonds: +0.92
Patty Murray: +0.89
Yes on Income Tax: +0.89
No on Privatizing Industrial insurance: +0.86
Charlie Wiggins for State Supreme Court: +0.83
No on Candy Tax Repeal: +0.82
Approve State Debt Limit Raise: +0.79
No on I-1105 (Liquor Privatization 'B'): +0.63
Reject allowing remand for violent felons: +0.38
No on I-1100 (Liquor Privatization 'A'): +0.20

Correlation between Patty Murray and all of this:

Yes on Income Tax: +0.89
No on Eyman Tax Limits: +0.85
No on Privatizing Industrial insurance: +0.82
Approve School Green Energy Bonds: +0.80
Approve State Debt Limit Raise: +0.70
Charlie Wiggins for State Supreme Court: +0.61
No on Candy Tax Repeal: +0.56
No on I-1105 (Liquor Privatization 'B'): +0.51
Reject allowing remand for violent felons: +0.45
No on I-1100 (Liquor Privatization 'A'): +0.27

Correlation with No on Candy Tax Repeal:

Charlie Wiggins for Supreme Court: +0.83
No on Eyman Tax Limits: +0.78
Approve School Green Energy Bonds: +0.76
Approve State Debt Limit Raise: +0.67
No on I-1105 (Liquor Privatization 'B'): +0.64
No on Privatizing Industrial insurance: +0.58
Patty Murray: +0.56
Yes on Income Tax: +0.54
Reject allowing remand for violent felons: +0.15
No on I-1100 (Liquor Privatization 'A'): +0.06

And here are the likely ballot combos with the strongest correlation in Seattle:

1. Patty Murray/Yes on Income Tax (+0.89)
2. Patty Murray/No on Eyman Tax Limits (+0.85)
3. No on Eyman Tax Limits/No on Industrial Insurance Privatization (+0.85)
4. No on Eyman Tax Limits/Approve Green Energy Bonds (+0.85)
5. Yes on Income Tax/Approve Green Energy Bonds (+0.84)
6. Yes on Income Tax/No on Eyman Tax Limits (+0.83)
7. No on Candy Tax Repeal/Charlie Wiggins for Supreme Court (+0.83)
8. Patty Murray/No on Industrial Insurance Privatization (+0.82)
9. Patty Murray/Approve Green Energy Bonds (+0.80)
10. No on Candy Tax Repeal/No on Eyman Tax Limits (+0.78)

All "liberal" ballot choices correlated with each other, including No on the booze issues and Reject on the bail issue, with the weakest being Charlie Wiggins and No on I-1100 Liquor Privatization (only +0.03).

Turnout correlation was mixed.  Higher rates of turnout correlated with No on I-1105 Liquor Privatization (+0.39), No on Candy Tax Repeal (+0.38), Charlie Wiggins for Supreme Court (+0.32), No on I-1100 Liquor Privatization (+0.14), No on Eyman Tax Limits (+0.13), No on Industrial Insurance Privatization (+0.11), and Approve on State Debt Limit Raise (+0.01).  

Turnout correlation was negative for Approve School Green Energy Bonds (-0.06), Patty Murray for U.S. Senate (-0.09), Yes on Income Tax (-0.23) and Reject on the bail issue (-0.28).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Joe Republic on May 01, 2011, 07:25:27 AM
Do you guys want me to move this (back) to the Guber board?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 01, 2011, 07:57:30 AM
Do you guys want me to move this (back) to the Guber board?

Yes plz.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 02, 2011, 04:36:12 PM
Anyone see The Stranger bit on Kucinich perhaps moving here and running for Congress?

LOL times a billion if true. I would totally donate to his campaign. ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 02, 2011, 04:49:03 PM
He's done events in Olympia and Tacoma in the past few months... exactly where the conventional wisdom says the 10th CD may end up.

Bizarre.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 02, 2011, 04:51:56 PM
I think he would have a better chance in Inslee's district.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 02, 2011, 04:56:32 PM
I agree, but it seems odd for him to be doing events in the South Sound if he's interested in running up in Everett.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 02, 2011, 05:06:24 PM
I agree, but it seems odd for him to be doing events in the South Sound if he's interested in running up in Everett.

I would certainly feel more comfortable with him in a more solidly D district. ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on May 02, 2011, 05:13:49 PM
I don't think Everett is quite that liberal...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 02, 2011, 05:19:51 PM
I have updated my signature accordingly. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on May 02, 2011, 08:56:49 PM
Do you guys want me to move this (back) to the Guber board?

Yes plz.

^^

<joe3333333333


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 02, 2011, 10:07:07 PM
ehhh.... I'm not a fan of Kucinich and we have plenty of local politicians who could probably fit the new 10th better than he could.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 02, 2011, 10:29:53 PM
ehhh.... I'm not a fan of Kucinich and we have plenty of local politicians who could probably fit the new 10th better than he could.

To heck with that other Dennis! (pun intended)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 03, 2011, 01:23:02 AM
Statement from Kucinich's office:

"After people found out that Congressman Kucinich’s district could be eliminated or substantially altered in congressional redistricting by the Ohio Legislature’s Republican majority, Congressman Kucinich received requests from people in twenty states, including Washington State, encouraging him to move and run in their area. The Daily Show interview is instructive of this sentiment.

"Congressman Kucinich appreciates the interest expressed in his public service. As he has repeatedly said, he fully intends to remain in Congress; he just doesn’t know in what district he will run. In the meantime, he is devoted to serving Ohio’s 10th district as it currently stands."


*bangs head against desk repeatedly*


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Napoleon on May 03, 2011, 02:04:26 AM
Please please please take Kucinich in!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 03, 2011, 04:29:36 AM
I'll concede this idea is mildly amusing just because of the ridiculousness of it, but in all seriousness this is not a good idea. Kucinich is a gadfly who is disliked by his colleagues and is unable to accomplish anything in Congress. He's not the type of guy we want going to bat for us. All he's concerned about is making outlandish and controversial statements and getting media attention for himself. He would have no concern for local issues.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 03, 2011, 03:10:52 PM
I'll concede this idea is mildly amusing just because of the ridiculousness of it, but in all seriousness this is not a good idea. Kucinich is a gadfly who is disliked by his colleagues and is unable to accomplish anything in Congress. He's not the type of guy we want going to bat for us. All he's concerned about is making outlandish and controversial statements and getting media attention for himself. He would have no concern for local issues.

Maybe he can replace McDermott, then!

WA-1 has already approved carpetbagging, though... ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on May 03, 2011, 04:06:05 PM
I'll concede this idea is mildly amusing just because of the ridiculousness of it, but in all seriousness this is not a good idea. Kucinich is a gadfly who is disliked by his colleagues and is unable to accomplish anything in Congress. He's not the type of guy we want going to bat for us. All he's concerned about is making outlandish and controversial statements and getting media attention for himself. He would have no concern for local issues.

This.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 03, 2011, 05:12:18 PM
Even though I like him, I do have trouble seeing him somehow convincing the local Democratic establishment to pass over a decent bench of candidates in districts that all, at least, lean Dem.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Bacon King on May 04, 2011, 04:45:07 PM
I guess Washington doesn't have any laws on residency, or what?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 04, 2011, 04:54:23 PM
I guess Washington doesn't have any laws on residency, or what?

You only have to live here for a month or so... As one source pointed out, due to our relatively late primary (August), Kucinich would have enough time to lose a primary in Ohio, move here, and live here long enough to register and file as a candidate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on May 04, 2011, 05:05:18 PM
No way is this okay in my opinion. I think Kucinich is a fascinating man, but his time is up. He is speaking in Seattle in two or three weeks and I thought it was just random, but now there seems to be a more subtle motivation. I am slightly disgusted. That's just way to opportunistic and he does not represent the Washington I live in. I hope he is primaried out.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 04, 2011, 05:23:14 PM
Now, now... If we're going to take congressional seats from the Rust Belt, we might as well take one of their Congressmen, too!! :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on May 04, 2011, 05:45:16 PM
I guess Washington doesn't have any laws on residency, or what?

You only have to live here for a month or so... As one source pointed out, due to our relatively late primary (August), Kucinich would have enough time to lose a primary in Ohio, move here, and live here long enough to register and file as a candidate.

He would of course have to resign his seat to do that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 04, 2011, 10:35:57 PM
I guess Washington doesn't have any laws on residency, or what?

You only have to live here for a month or so... As one source pointed out, due to our relatively late primary (August), Kucinich would have enough time to lose a primary in Ohio, move here, and live here long enough to register and file as a candidate.

He would of course have to resign his seat to do that.

Would he? Is there language in the Constitution, federal or state law that says you actually must live in your district the entire term of office?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Napoleon on May 05, 2011, 01:29:11 AM
People have been drawn put of their districts before, so, no.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 05, 2011, 07:10:08 AM
The only residency requirement is that candidates live in the state at the time of the election:

Quote
No Person shall be a Representative who shall not have attained to the Age of twenty five Years, and been seven Years a Citizen of the United States, and who shall not, when elected, be an Inhabitant of that State in which he shall be chosen.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 17, 2011, 08:40:12 PM
State Rep. Marko Liias has formed an exploratory committee for Jay Inslee's seat.

(In case anyone was wondering, Inslee has held off announcing his campaign because Gregoire hasn't officially said she isn't running yet.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 18, 2011, 05:05:30 PM
Marko Liias would be an excellent replacement. Now if we could only get Ed Murray representing WA-7.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on May 18, 2011, 10:03:22 PM
I guess Washington doesn't have any laws on residency, or what?

You only have to live here for a month or so... As one source pointed out, due to our relatively late primary (August), Kucinich would have enough time to lose a primary in Ohio, move here, and live here long enough to register and file as a candidate.

He would of course have to resign his seat to do that.

Would he? Is there language in the Constitution, federal or state law that says you actually must live in your district the entire term of office?

You must live in your state.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 18, 2011, 10:30:14 PM
I guess Washington doesn't have any laws on residency, or what?

You only have to live here for a month or so... As one source pointed out, due to our relatively late primary (August), Kucinich would have enough time to lose a primary in Ohio, move here, and live here long enough to register and file as a candidate.

He would of course have to resign his seat to do that.

Would he? Is there language in the Constitution, federal or state law that says you actually must live in your district the entire term of office?

You must live in your state.

I don't think so; Johnny posted the relevant portion of the Constitution upthread.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on May 19, 2011, 02:43:08 AM
I guess Washington doesn't have any laws on residency, or what?

You only have to live here for a month or so... As one source pointed out, due to our relatively late primary (August), Kucinich would have enough time to lose a primary in Ohio, move here, and live here long enough to register and file as a candidate.

He would of course have to resign his seat to do that.

Would he? Is there language in the Constitution, federal or state law that says you actually must live in your district the entire term of office?

You must live in your state.

I don't think so; Johnny posted the relevant portion of the Constitution upthread.

Ah, I misinterpreted it. I stand corrected.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 19, 2011, 11:43:44 AM
Kind of a random question, but has all-mail voting grown on anyone?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 19, 2011, 11:49:39 AM
I've always preferred it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on May 19, 2011, 04:46:22 PM

It's a good option if you don't care about a secret ballot.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 19, 2011, 04:49:41 PM

It's a good option if you don't care about a secret ballot.

3.5 million voters use vote-by-mail in Washington every year without a single complaint ever filled with an elections department or law enforcement agency regarding privacy. Just thought you should know since from your posts on the subject you seem to be very misinformed about vote-by-mail. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Franzl on May 19, 2011, 05:53:56 PM
Is Washington 100% by mail now, or are there a couple of election day polling places left somewhere?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 19, 2011, 05:58:09 PM
Pierce County still has polling places, IIRC. The other 38/39 have been all-mail for a while now.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 19, 2011, 06:01:02 PM
The state legislature just passed a bill closing Pierce County sites.

It's worth mentioning that any voter is welcome to go to their county elections office to cast a ballot in person if they have concerns about privacy.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on May 19, 2011, 06:38:27 PM
It's worth mentioning that any voter is welcome to go to their county elections office to cast a ballot in person if they have concerns about privacy.

I don't think you understand why the secret ballot works the way it does.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 19, 2011, 06:46:35 PM
It's worth mentioning that any voter is welcome to go to their county elections office to cast a ballot in person if they have concerns about privacy.

I don't think you understand why the secret ballot works the way it does.

I think you like to write in vague statements in an effort to make yourself sound smarter than you are.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 19, 2011, 10:57:03 PM
Kind of a random question, but has all-mail voting grown on anyone?
I don't know why everyone hates it.... it saves money and creates suspence in those to close to call elections ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on May 19, 2011, 11:06:47 PM
Kind of a random question, but has all-mail voting grown on anyone?

Always liked it. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 20, 2011, 06:31:19 PM
Hmmmm..... Kucinich will be back here tomorrow to "support" a rally in Seattle to close tax loopholes against Chase, so that teachers don't have to get layed off, etc, etc.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Franzl on May 21, 2011, 02:13:41 AM
Hmmmm..... Kucinich will be back here tomorrow to "support" a rally in Seattle to close tax loopholes against Chase, so that teachers don't have to get layed off, etc, etc.

Please let him be slaughtered if he winds up running.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 21, 2011, 05:20:05 PM
Do we know who will challenge Cantwell from the left yet? Hong Tran and Aaron Dixon having done so in 2006.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 22, 2011, 01:19:51 AM
Lol, Im sure Aaron Dixon will try....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 22, 2011, 01:27:42 AM
Lol, Im sure Aaron Dixon will try....

What makes you say that? I haven't really seen much from him since 2006


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 22, 2011, 11:17:13 AM
Lol, Im sure Aaron Dixon will try....

What makes you say that? I haven't really seen much from him since 2006
He's one of the types that would do it. Im not saying he will, but I wouldn't be surprised. In fact, I know who his campaign manager was (or whatever its called), maybe he has some insight.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 22, 2011, 06:48:25 PM
I've never been a big fan of Cantwell, so while I'll vote for her in the general, I'm hoping there will be a good alternative for me in the primary. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 26, 2011, 12:53:12 AM
The state legislature has finally adjourned for the year.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on May 31, 2011, 08:14:28 PM
Hooray!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on May 31, 2011, 08:20:42 PM
The state legislature has finally adjourned for the year.

OUR LIBERTIES ARE SAFE ONCE AGAIN.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on May 31, 2011, 09:36:19 PM
The state legislature has finally adjourned for the year.

OUR LIBERTIES ARE SAFE ONCE AGAIN.
At least the state government can do no more damage to our healthcare system or worker's rights while chasing the bipartisanship unicorn down a rainbow.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on May 31, 2011, 09:55:09 PM
The state legislature has finally adjourned for the year.

OUR LIBERTIES ARE SAFE ONCE AGAIN.
At least the state government can do no more damage to our healthcare system or worker's rights while chasing the bipartisanship unicorn down a rainbow.

Welcome to the forum.  :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on June 01, 2011, 09:27:14 PM
Looks like Reichert already has a challenger in the form of state rep, Roger Goodman. He apparently live in Kirkland? I'm not sure how that works because that's in the first and if anything, he'll probably be in the first next election even if lives in Bellevue.....

Anyway he is running on a platform of legalizing medical pot dispenseries.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 03, 2011, 05:36:53 PM
Former State Representative Laura Ruderman, last seen losing to Sam Reed in 2004, is running in the 1st CD. She could end up the Democratic nominee - Ruderman is a fundraising machine and if she's the only woman in a field filled with dudes...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 03, 2011, 08:01:38 PM
Yeah I could see Ruderman winning. She was one of the first Democrats to win on the Eastside back in the 1990s, IIRC...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on June 03, 2011, 08:39:46 PM
It'd be nice to have a democrat female congressional democrat.... I wonder who will try to go up against Herrera?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 03, 2011, 08:48:11 PM
It'd be nice to have a democrat female congressional democrat.... I wonder who will try to go up against Herrera?

Hopefully one of the Vancouver legislators (who was the woman who dropped out in 2010)? Herrera would still probably win, but it might be competitive at least.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 03, 2011, 10:06:51 PM
It'd be nice to have a democrat female congressional democrat.... I wonder who will try to go up against Herrera?

Hopefully one of the Vancouver legislators (who was the woman who dropped out in 2010)? Herrera would still probably win, but it might be competitive at least.

Deb Wallace. Craig Pridemore won't try it again because it'd mean losing his State Senate seat.

Herrera Beutler is going to be safe for life after she gets her new district so it doesn't really matter though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on June 04, 2011, 10:32:20 PM
Herrerra doesn't matter as long as we pick up the new 10 district and knock off Reichert.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on June 06, 2011, 10:03:09 PM
bahaha..... Gregoire, "hasn't made a decision about whether to run for re-election next year".

 http://www.komonews.com/news/local/123275458.html (http://www.komonews.com/news/local/123275458.html)

She can't honestly think she'll win...... even if her approval ratings have now "moved up" in to the 30's.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 07, 2011, 03:40:25 AM
bahaha..... Gregoire, "hasn't made a decision about whether to run for re-election next year".

 http://www.komonews.com/news/local/123275458.html (http://www.komonews.com/news/local/123275458.html)

She can't honestly think she'll win...... even if her approval ratings have now "moved up" in to the 30's.

Shadow of the future.

She needs clout, and she doesn't want to give the impression that she's a lame duck if she doesn't have to.

Besides, right now she's very invested in spooking Mike McGinn, and his approvals ain't much better.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 07, 2011, 09:33:47 AM
She has to announce fairly soon though. Jay Inslee's campaign needs to get going and she's enough of a team player to realize that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 07, 2011, 03:42:38 PM
Rob McKenna will announce his campaign tomorrow evening.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 09, 2011, 12:53:20 PM
It's filing week. There is nothing exciting to report from anywhere.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 09, 2011, 11:36:28 PM
It's filing week. There is nothing exciting to report from anywhere.

No Democrats are gonna even try for the Senate seat in the 4th? If I still lived there, I would totally be a sacrificial lamb. :)

Where can you find candidates who have filed for local office (King County in particular)?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 09, 2011, 11:38:11 PM
It's filing week. There is nothing exciting to report from anywhere.

No Democrats are gonna even try for the Senate seat in the 4th? If I still lived there, I would totally be a sacrificial lamb. :)

Where can you find candidates who have filed for local office (King County in particular)?

http://www.kingcounty.gov/elections/elections/201108/candidatefiling.aspx

Every county auditor has a similar page.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 10, 2011, 01:45:00 AM
()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 11, 2011, 02:12:16 AM
Ugh, Derringer isn't running again in Bellevue... The thought of Kemper Freeman owning another seat on the council (not to mention the Governor's Mansion) is unsettling.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 11, 2011, 02:25:40 AM
This has been known for a while but I don't think it was ever posted - Snohomish County Executive/Democratic rising star Aaron Reardon is being challenged by State Representative/Republican rising star Mike Hope. The stakes are higher for Reardon of course since Hope will still have his State House seat if he loses (and possibly a campaign for the open 1st CD...)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 11, 2011, 03:01:25 AM
Kemper Freeman sucks, Part II (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2015289762_freeman_funds_eyman_tax_initia.html)*


*Part II of today, obviously. Overall this would be Part xMCMLXII


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 11, 2011, 09:48:57 PM
The R vs. R election in Spokane is kind of amusing. The appointed incumbent is being challenged by the guy who used to represent the 4th in the 80's and early 90's. He became a judge after leaving the legislature but there was some kind of corruption scandal in 2007. He was also the faithless elector in 1976 that voted for Reagan instead of Ford.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 12, 2011, 10:29:56 PM
I haven't been paying too much attention to Bellingham/Whatcom politics lately. Apparently Pete Kremen changed his mind and is not running for a fifth term as county executive (and is instead running for a seat on the county council).

With Kremen out, Doug Ericksen has jumped into the race for executive, even though he only became a State Senator this year. Other candidates include a former Mayor of Lynden (whom I naturally presume to be another Republican) and a public utilities director, who is a Democrat. The coal terminal project will probably be one of the "big" issues, though with a so-so Democratic candidate and an odd-year election (poor student turnout), Ericksen would seem favored. But I'm hardly an expert on Whatcom County politics. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Tender Branson on June 13, 2011, 11:16:14 AM
Gov. Gregoire won't run for re-election.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0611/Gregoire_wont_seek_third_term.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 13, 2011, 12:32:50 PM
Cue Jay Inslee in 5... 4... 3... 2... 1...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on June 13, 2011, 10:04:17 PM
Rob McKenna is making pleasant noises regarding K-12 and higher education funding:

McKenna's call to boost school funds short on details (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2015304793_mckenna12.html)

By Jim Brunner
Seattle Times political reporter


State Attorney General Rob McKenna rolled out his 2012 campaign for governor last week with an attention-grabbing call to reverse decades of dwindling state support for public schools and universities.

Taking the stage at Bellevue's Sammamish High School, where he graduated in 1980, the Republican said the state should return to spending about three-quarters of its budget on education, as it did when he was young.

"We need to go back to a state commitment to funding education, a commitment where public education receives the kind of share of the budget it got when we were in school," McKenna declared.

But could he really deliver on that?

McKenna laid out ambitious specifics. He said K-12 schools should receive about 51 percent of the budget, instead of the current 40 percent. Colleges should have a 16 percent slice, McKenna said, double what they receive now.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 13, 2011, 10:56:50 PM
Rob McKenna is making pleasant noises regarding K-12 and higher education funding:

plz tell me ur joking


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 13, 2011, 11:54:22 PM
All his plan does is take money from other parts of the budget and redirects it to education. It's a bit like cutting off your foot so you can lose weight. You solve one problem but create another one that's much worse.

What we really need is a tax increase to fund greater education spending but of course that's not on the table because OUR STATE TAX CODE AND BUDGET SYSTEM SUCKS SO BADLY.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on June 14, 2011, 09:03:21 AM
All his plan does is take money from other parts of the budget and redirects it to education. It's a bit like cutting off your foot so you can lose weight. You solve one problem but create another one that's much worse.

What we really need is a tax increase to fund greater education spending but of course that's not on the table because OUR STATE TAX CODE AND BUDGET SYSTEM SUCKS SO BADLY.

...But Tim Eyman and direct democracy RULZ!1!!11!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 14, 2011, 12:51:11 PM
Ron Sims is retiring from HUD and moving back to Seattle.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 14, 2011, 01:39:48 PM
Ron Sims is retiring from HUD and moving back to Seattle.

...Hmm, kinda suspicious timing.

Dunn also announced his run for AG today.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 15, 2011, 02:43:49 PM
This election won't feel right without Dino Rossi running.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 15, 2011, 02:49:24 PM
This election won't feel right without Dino Rossi running.

Maria still needs an opponent...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on June 15, 2011, 09:50:44 PM
This election won't feel right without Dino Rossi running.

Maria still needs an opponent...
How 'close' would that make the election?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 15, 2011, 09:54:46 PM
This election won't feel right without Dino Rossi running.

Maria still needs an opponent...
How 'close' would that make the election?

Rossi has always managed to get at least 47% of the vote. It's getting that next 2 or 3% that's been the challenge.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 16, 2011, 03:56:48 PM
http://crosscut.com/2011/06/15/elections/21023/Brian-Sonntag-will-decide-soon-on-governor-s-race/#end-of-comments

I post this because of the info about Sonntag it mentions, but the writer (like most Crosscut writers) is a moron. Inslee has a 50-50 shot of getting in? The man has been running for Governor since Gregoire took office. And his comments about not getting in to a contested Democratic primary referred to if Gregorie decided to run again.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 16, 2011, 04:48:56 PM
^ Yeah, that's a pretty bad article. Sonntag got 70-something percent in 2008? Really? Try 63.5%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on June 16, 2011, 07:25:21 PM
^ Yeah, that's a pretty bad article. Sonntag got 70-something percent in 2008? Really? Try 63.5%.
Lol, he must have quoted Wikipedia.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on June 17, 2011, 02:54:03 AM
Rob McKenna is making pleasant noises regarding K-12 and higher education funding:

McKenna's call to boost school funds short on details (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2015304793_mckenna12.html)

By Jim Brunner
Seattle Times political reporter


State Attorney General Rob McKenna rolled out his 2012 campaign for governor last week with an attention-grabbing call to reverse decades of dwindling state support for public schools and universities.

Taking the stage at Bellevue's Sammamish High School, where he graduated in 1980, the Republican said the state should return to spending about three-quarters of its budget on education, as it did when he was young.

"We need to go back to a state commitment to funding education, a commitment where public education receives the kind of share of the budget it got when we were in school," McKenna declared.

But could he really deliver on that?

McKenna laid out ambitious specifics. He said K-12 schools should receive about 51 percent of the budget, instead of the current 40 percent. Colleges should have a 16 percent slice, McKenna said, double what they receive now.

So Rob McKenna wants to make it rain for schools?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 20, 2011, 06:06:45 PM
Jim Kastama is running for Secretary of State. The likely Republican nominee will be Thurston County Auditor Kim Wyman. No idea if another Democrat will get in.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 21, 2011, 02:11:56 PM
Jim Kastama is running for Secretary of State. The likely Republican nominee will be Thurston County Auditor Kim Wyman. No idea if another Democrat will get in.

Pierce Democrat vs. Thurston Republican?? Hmm... Sounds very familiar!

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=53&year=1992&f=0&off=11&elect=0

;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on June 21, 2011, 02:47:29 PM
Jim Kastama is running for Secretary of State. The likely Republican nominee will be Thurston County Auditor Kim Wyman. No idea if another Democrat will get in.

Pierce Democrat vs. Thurston Republican?? Hmm... Sounds very familiar!

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=53&year=1992&f=0&off=11&elect=0

;D

Dang... I actually like Wyman. Though if she turns out to be like Reed then I wouldn't mind seeing her elected.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on June 22, 2011, 01:52:12 AM
So Rob McKenna wants to make it rain for schools?

Appreciate my Rob McKenna jokes! >:(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 22, 2011, 01:40:36 PM
State Representative Bruce Dammeier (a rising Republican star) is running for Jim Kastama's State Senate seat. While this is extremely bad news in terms of holding the seat, the good news is that Dammeier definitely won't be running for Congress now. Yay!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 22, 2011, 06:20:35 PM
In yet another Puyallup-centric post, an NFL player is running for Puyallup School Board: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dane_Looker


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on June 22, 2011, 06:39:20 PM
State Representative Bruce Dammeier (a rising Republican star) is running for Jim Kastama's State Senate seat. While this is extremely bad news in terms of holding the seat, the good news is that Dammeier definitely won't be running for Congress now. Yay!
Which seat would that be? and where would he run for congress?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 22, 2011, 06:40:24 PM
State Representative Bruce Dammeier (a rising Republican star) is running for Jim Kastama's State Senate seat. While this is extremely bad news in terms of holding the seat, the good news is that Dammeier definitely won't be running for Congress now. Yay!
Which seat would that be? and where would he run for congress?

There's a chance that part or all of Puyallup will be in the 10th.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 23, 2011, 01:32:38 PM
Jay Inslee is set to announce on Monday. He also came out in favor of same-sex marriage which is pretty cool.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 29, 2011, 07:52:53 AM
Sam Reed is retiring. (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2015448975_reed29m.html) Democratic sweep of the statewide offices?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 29, 2011, 03:51:16 PM
Sam Reed is retiring. (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2015448975_reed29m.html) Democratic sweep of the statewide offices?

Maybe. I think we'll be able to win the AG race. The Republicans will have another Sam Reed-esque candidate running for Secretary of State but the state's moved to the left since Reed was first elected and our candidate will be pretty good. I think we'll probably win.

The Governor's race is the big question mark.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 29, 2011, 03:52:16 PM
Oh yeah, John Ladenburg isn't running for AG but is running for State Supreme Court instead. I guess I'll vote for him. Maybe.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on July 01, 2011, 01:11:46 AM
Sam Reed is retiring. (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2015448975_reed29m.html) Democratic sweep of the statewide offices?

Obama's coattails can only help Democrats in Washington.  The AG's race is the one I feel most confident about.  Reagan Dunn has good name ID because of his mother (Jennifer Dunn) but he has a reputation for being lazy and Bob Ferguson is anything but.  Maybe Dunn will seriously up his game, but I doubt it.

Not so sure about SoS.  Kim Wyman is a solid candidate, we'll see what evolves on the Democratic side.  Interestingly, the GOP has controlled the SoS Office in Washington state since the mid 1960s -- over 45 years! 

The governor's race will likely be one of the most closely watched in the country.  I think it would be unwise to speculate at this point.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 01, 2011, 01:52:44 AM
Do we have any news on Owen?

Also, I notice Goodman has switched to WA-01. That's too bad, I like him. Who does that leave for WA-08, Hunter? If the 8th turns into some horrific Auburn to Wenatchee gerrymander, we might just get another joke candidate.

Sam Reed is retiring. (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2015448975_reed29m.html) Democratic sweep of the statewide offices?

Obama's coattails can only help Democrats in Washington.  The AG's race is the one I feel most confident about.  Reagan Dunn has good name ID because of his mother (Jennifer Dunn) but he has a reputation for being lazy and Bob Ferguson is anything but.  Maybe Dunn will seriously up his game, but I doubt it.

Not so sure about SoS.  Kim Wyman is a solid candidate, we'll see what evolves on the Democratic side.  Interestingly, the GOP has controlled the SoS Office in Washington state since the mid 1960s -- over 45 years!

The governor's race will likely be one of the most closely watched in the country.  I think it would be unwise to speculate at this point.

That's nothing! The State Auditor has been a Democrat for about eight decades now. ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 01, 2011, 01:59:03 AM
Owen will run until he dies. The interesting question mark in that race is Lisa Brown (who endorsed Jay Inslee, thus killing any rumors of a Governor run for her).

By my count there are now nine candidates running or rumored in the 1st/8th CD - State Sen. Steve Hobbs, State Reps. Marko Liias, Roger Goodman, and Ross Hunter, Former State Rep. Laura Ruderman, some guy named Darshan Rauniyar (http://www.darshanforcongress.com/), past Reichert foes Suzan DelBene and Darcy Burner, and of course Dennis Kucinich.

Crowded field to put it mildly.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 01, 2011, 02:06:31 AM
Ross Hunter could very well find himself in the 1st CD, too. Sigh!

No more Darcy plz :'(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on July 01, 2011, 12:16:45 PM
When do the proposals come out? The community input should be done or just about done by now.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 01, 2011, 12:18:12 PM
When do the proposals come out? The community input should be done or just about done by now.

Drafts will be released mid-September.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on July 01, 2011, 07:44:43 PM
McKenna has raised 600K in June, pretty good start, Inslee has not released his figures yet.http://www.komonews.com/news/local/124890639.html (http://www.komonews.com/news/local/124890639.html)

I'm sooooooo looking forward to being bombarded by both gubernatorial, congressional, and presidential ads come 2012.....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 01, 2011, 08:13:12 PM
This says Inslee has raised "more than 500k". That's a good sign given that McKenna had a two week head start: http://www.columbian.com/news/2011/jul/01/mckenna-inslee-both-already-over-500k-raised/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 05, 2011, 10:42:33 AM
Sonntag has indicated he will not be running for Governor.

A year and a half out and we already know with certainty who the candidates will be. Yay!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on July 06, 2011, 12:23:01 AM
What type of person could possibly vote for both McKenna and Obama?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Napoleon on July 06, 2011, 12:26:27 AM
What type of person could possibly vote for both McKenna and Obama?

Upper middle class suburban white families.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 06, 2011, 12:27:19 AM
What type of person could possibly vote for both McKenna and Obama?

Same sort of people who voted for Rossi and Obama.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 06, 2011, 02:08:16 AM
>10% of the voters in my city voted Kerry/Rossi and Obama/Rossi, so Napoleon is probably about correct.

From my experience, they're people who don't pay too much attention to politics but like to consider themselves moderate/independent, etc. They generally aren't able to give you a more than vague answer of why they vote like this. "We just need a change in Olympia (or DC)," blah blah, that kind of garbage. But Rossi is the hometown politician too so that's obviously a factor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on July 07, 2011, 02:04:30 AM
If McKenna doesn't win can we assume that the Washington GOP is pretty much done as a competitive force for gubernatorial elections? I mean it's been 31 years since the state last elected a Republican governor. You would think that McKenna would have the clear "change" advantage going for him, and if he somehow blows it, it would be a very disappointing loss.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 08, 2011, 05:36:20 AM
I'm not sure I'd say "done," but Rob McKenna probably is better positioned than any Republican candidate for statewide success in an actually-partisan office.  That is, until King County Councilman Reagan Dunn, who is going to be Rob McKenna 2.0 once he wins AG -- and he's better at McKenna's niche than McKenna is.  I think Reagan Dunn will be very, very dangerous to state Dems in a few years.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 08, 2011, 10:21:13 AM
I don't think Dunn will win. He's lazy and Ferguson is a brainiac. The guy has written books about chess!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on July 08, 2011, 10:36:45 AM
His name is Reagan? Oh, dear.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on July 08, 2011, 02:32:52 PM
I agree with Meeker.  On paper, Dunn looks like a great candidate -- former federal prosecutor, good name ID, politically well-connected/can raise money.  But based on the past history of the two candidates, I think that Bob Ferguson will outwork Dunn in the end.  I also think that Dunn's promise to support and continue McKenna's health care lawsuit will be electorally damaging in King County.  

Quote
On one controversial issue, Dunn said that he supports and would pursue McKenna’s lawsuit against provisions of the Affordable Health Care Act passed by Congress in 2010.

“I would continue to challenge the individual mandate provision of the health care reform law,” he said.
http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2011/06/14/reagan-dunn-runs-to-succeed-mckenna/ (http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2011/06/14/reagan-dunn-runs-to-succeed-mckenna/)


With regards to SayNo's question, one never knows what the future holds in 2016 or 2020, even if Inslee wins.  Inslee could be a bust as governor and someone we may not be thinking about could emerge.  Without question, however, it would be a terrible blow to the WA GOP if McKenna lost.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 08, 2011, 03:56:14 PM
Today's the day signatures for initiatives are due. Making the ballot will be:

- Tim Eyman's thing relating to highway tolls. I haven't bothered to learn the details because I already know I won't be voting for it.
- SEIU's home healthcare worker training bill which the state already passed overwhelmingly in 2008 but was never funded.
- Costco's slightly scaled back liquor privatization effort.

The Humane Society pulled the plug on their initiative relating to egg-laying hens after reaching a compromise with the egg producers yesterday. The marijuana legalization folks (not the more recent one; the Sensible Washington one) didn't collect enough signatures.

There will also be two constitutional amendments on the ballot: One that is a modification to the rainy day fund and another which clears up some redundant/conflicting language about voter eligibility for presidential elections.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 08, 2011, 09:09:08 PM
Today's the day signatures for initiatives are due. Making the ballot will be:

- Tim Eyman's thing relating to highway tolls. I haven't bothered to learn the details because I already know I won't be voting for it.
- SEIU's home healthcare worker training bill which the state already passed overwhelmingly in 2008 but was never funded.
- Costco's slightly scaled back liquor privatization effort.

The Humane Society pulled the plug on their initiative relating to egg-laying hens after reaching a compromise with the egg producers yesterday. The marijuana legalization folks (not the more recent one; the Sensible Washington one) didn't collect enough signatures.

There will also be two constitutional amendments on the ballot: One that is a modification to the rainy day fund and another which clears up some redundant/conflicting language about voter eligibility for presidential elections.

That's too bad, it would have been an interesting map.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 08, 2011, 09:35:56 PM
Do we have a 2012 summary anywhere yet? Maybe Meeker can help, he always seems to be the most knowledgeable on this sort of thing... :P I've included declared candidates that I know of, with possibles in italics, and just assumed the incumbent is running unless I've read otherwise (Gregoire, McKenna, and Reed):

SENATOR
Maria Cantwell (D)
Clint Didier (R)?
Susan Hutchison (R)?


GOVERNOR
Jay Inslee (D)
Rob McKenna (R)
Bill Bryant (R)?

LT. GOVERNOR
Brad Owen (D)
Lisa Brown (D)?
_________(R)?

SECRETARY OF STATE
Jim Kastama (D)
Kim Wyman (R)

ATTORNEY GENERAL
Bob Ferguson (D)
Reagan Dunn (R)

STATE AUDITOR
Brian Sonntag (D)
_________(R)?

STATE TREASURER
Jim McIntire (D)
_________(R)?

COMMISSIONER OF PUBLIC LANDS
Peter Goldmark (D)
_________(R)?

INSURANCE COMMISSIONER
Mike Kreidler (D)
_________(R)?



Really haven't heard much from the Republicans about Cantwell's seat, but I've seen Didier and Hutchison mentioned numerous times. Bryant is still pretending to consider a run for Governor, last I read.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 09, 2011, 01:28:28 AM
Let's see...

SENATOR
Maria Cantwell (D)
Clint Didier (R)?
Susan Hutchison (R)?


Those are the two names I've heard, though I've never heard either of them actually indicate themselves. Of the two I think Didier is far more likely to run; I'd be very surprised if Hutchison did.

I'm sure if all else fails Paul Akers is willing to be the nominee.

GOVERNOR
Jay Inslee (D)
Rob McKenna (R)
Bill Bryant (R)?

Yeah, this field is set. Bryant just wants his name talked about; he won't actually file. Sonntag and Constantine both officially took themselves out of consideration in the past week or so (not that Constantine was ever seriously looking at the race).

LT. GOVERNOR
Brad Owen (D)
Lisa Brown (D)?
_________(R)?

I haven't heard anything more about this hypothetical challenge from Brown in a while. It's actually the statewide race I'm most intrigued by. Brown winning the Lt. Governor race would set her up well to run for Governor in the future. Not sure what'll happen, though my gut leans against Brown running.

The Republican will be a nobody and a non-factor.

SECRETARY OF STATE
Jim Kastama (D)
Kim Wyman (R)

Wyman will definitely be the Republican in the general, but the Democratic field is not quite as set. Tukwilla State Representative Zack Hudgins is thinking about getting in as is former State Senator Kathleen Drew (the woman Dino Rossi beat to get into the State Senate back in 1996). I wouldn't be surprised if one or both of them entered the race.

ATTORNEY GENERAL
Bob Ferguson (D)
Reagan Dunn (R)

I heard a rumor that Pierce County Prosecutor Mark Lindquist was thinking about getting in this, but if he's at all interested he better start moving fast because Ferguson has nearly all the establishment support locked up. I doubt he'll get in, and with John Ladenburg dropping out last week I think this field is set.

STATE AUDITOR
Brian Sonntag (D)
_________(R)?

Will Baker or Dick McIntee or some other random crazy will run and Sonntag will get his usual 60% of the vote.

STATE TREASURER
Jim McIntire (D)
_________(R)?

The Republicans will run a nobody; if he has some sort of financial background McIntire will get 55% or so, if not then he'll go higher.

COMMISSIONER OF PUBLIC LANDS
Peter Goldmark (D)
_________(R)?

Haven't heard anyone mentioned, but if the business community wants to run someone they'll be well enough financed to keep it competitive. The Republican's best candidate would be Doug Sutherland (even with the sexual harassment stuff still lingering), but I've got no idea if he's interested. I'd suspect not.

INSURANCE COMMISSIONER
Mike Kreidler (D)
_________(R)?

Same as Sonntag. Nothing to see here.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 09, 2011, 01:38:32 AM
former State Senator Kathleen Drew (the woman Dino Rossi beat to get into the State Senate back in 1996)

I prefer to think of her as the woman who beat Dino Rossi in 1992. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 10, 2011, 04:25:42 AM
Contradicting what I just said, here's a Seattle Times article that implies Hutchison is the most likely candidate and may still get in the race: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2015562138_cantwell10m.html

Not even a mention of Didier, though that's not too surprising. I doubt his name even crosses through the minds of the King County chattering-class's self-centered bubble.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 10, 2011, 09:39:01 PM
But it will be harder for her to pretend to be an independent!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on July 10, 2011, 09:57:28 PM
Quote
But Hutchison said she gets asked about the Senate race "virtually daily" by "both Republicans and Democrats."

"There is a group of Democrats who yearn for a return to statesmanlike senators of the Scoop Jackson variety. They're weary of the lack of leadership of our delegation," said Hutchison, who sought to downplay her Republican ties during the county executive race.

I wonder who this unnamed group of Democrats is that Hutchison refers to?  Presumably they are the ones who will help her win.

If she runs, I will be amused watching her get 40%-42%.

I usually disagree with Chris Vance, but I thought he made a fair point here --

Quote
Vance, the former state GOP chairman, said it will be easier for McKenna to overcome the state's Democratic leanings in the governor's race because he can talk about change after 30 years of Democratic control.

That's harder in a federal race, Vance said, where too many voters may associate Republicans with presidential aspirants like Michele Bachmann and Sarah Palin, who are too conservative for swing voters here.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on July 10, 2011, 11:31:05 PM
Is there a self funder Republicans could run against Cantwell? Maybe John Stanton would be interested?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lief 🗽 on July 11, 2011, 09:32:36 AM
Is Didier pronounced Did-ee-er or Did-ee-ay?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Boris on July 11, 2011, 12:06:49 PM
Is Didier pronounced Did-ee-er or Did-ee-ay?

Like the Chelsea striker, I'd assume


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Badger on July 12, 2011, 01:53:19 PM
Contradicting what I just said, here's a Seattle Times article that implies Hutchison is the most likely candidate and may still get in the race: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2015562138_cantwell10m.html

Not even a mention of Didier, though that's not too surprising. I doubt his name even crosses through the minds of the King County chattering-class's self-centered bubble.

So Reichert's likely to get a safer seat with redistricting? :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 12, 2011, 05:15:58 PM
Contradicting what I just said, here's a Seattle Times article that implies Hutchison is the most likely candidate and may still get in the race: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2015562138_cantwell10m.html

Not even a mention of Didier, though that's not too surprising. I doubt his name even crosses through the minds of the King County chattering-class's self-centered bubble.

So Reichert's likely to get a safer seat with redistricting? :(

that seems to be the general consensus. Bipartisan redistricting is just incumbent protection, apparently. On the other hand, Rick Larsen (D) will also be made safer, even though sensible redistricting would dictate otherwise.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on July 15, 2011, 09:29:32 AM
Is Didier pronounced Did-ee-er or Did-ee-ay?

Did-ee-er


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 21, 2011, 05:13:36 PM
Maria Cantwell raised $1.36 million in Q2 and started July with $2.27 million cash on hand.

Meanwhile, this schmuck thinks he might want to run against her: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/19/us-usa-campaign-stanzel-idUSTRE76I6QB20110719


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on July 21, 2011, 05:25:43 PM
Maria Cantwell raised $1.36 million in Q2 and started July with $2.27 million cash on hand.

Meanwhile, this schmuck thinks he might want to run against her: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/19/us-usa-campaign-stanzel-idUSTRE76I6QB20110719

A former GWB spokesman? That would be joyous.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 21, 2011, 10:26:25 PM
haha. She might have a chance to beat her 2006 number. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on July 22, 2011, 02:57:29 AM
Maria Cantwell raised $1.36 million in Q2 and started July with $2.27 million cash on hand.

Meanwhile, this schmuck thinks he might want to run against her: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/19/us-usa-campaign-stanzel-idUSTRE76I6QB20110719

A former GWB spokesman? That would be joyous.

For a Senate candidate in Washington state, his candidate biography is horrid.  

Quote
"I'm very proud of my service to President Bush," Stanzel said. "It was an honor to work for him and he was president during some of the most consequential times."
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/07/21/former-bush-aide-mulls-senate-bid/ (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/07/21/former-bush-aide-mulls-senate-bid/)

I would love to hear him say this in a televised debate with Sen. Cantwell.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on July 22, 2011, 04:04:08 AM
()
I predict that this would be the result of such a match-up.
(Really, a Bush staffer? What next Washington State Republican party?)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on July 23, 2011, 11:39:55 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2015711094_kentshooting24m.html

WTF is with the random mass shootings in Washington lately (as in the last few years)?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on July 24, 2011, 08:30:49 AM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2015711094_kentshooting24m.html

WTF is with the random mass shootings in Washington lately (as in the last few years)?
People are strongly exercising their Second Amendment rights.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 24, 2011, 02:51:56 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2015715866_auburnshooting25m.html

you jinxed it, CultureKing!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on July 24, 2011, 05:48:16 PM
So in the last few years:
-These last two
-The various cop killings (there was the one in the coffee shop and I think another one where two or three cops were killed in an ambush in Thurston county somewhere)
-The Jewish center attack
-Others?, I feel like there have been at least a few more...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on July 24, 2011, 05:50:27 PM
Oh and I have a (not-so-serious) theory for the last two:
Apparently there hasn't been a 'real' summer this year. For a people that deal with 7-8 months of gray each year that can be the nail in the coffin. I read a fun article by doppler (or whatever his name is, the KIRO weather guy) that there has been less than an hour of weather over 80 degrees.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 24, 2011, 10:43:16 PM
For police shootings, there was the Seattle shooting (1 dead, 1 injured) followed by the Parkland shooting (4 dead) and then another in suburban Pierce (1 dead, 1 injured).

There was a big shoot-out that left two dead in Lake Sammamish State Park, and others injured, last year. There was the Alger/I-5 shooting spree, which left 4 or 5 dead IIRC.

And there were two other shootings in South Seattle recently, in which one person died and more were injured. Probably a bunch more shootings I can't think of. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on July 26, 2011, 12:56:28 PM
Random Washington-related question: Why does Wahkiakum County exist? It has one town, four thousand people and nothing notable in it whatsoever. Granted, I've never been there, but why isn't it part of Cowlitz or Pacific?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 26, 2011, 01:03:50 PM
It was part of Cowlitz originally but then at some point broke off... bgwah or Alcon may know why.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 26, 2011, 01:53:30 PM
Because they created almost all of our counties in the 19th century, and back then Wahkiakum wasn't abnormally small:

The 1880 census showed the following populations in the SW/Peninsula counties:

PopulationCounty
5,490Clark
3,270Thurston
2,600Lewis
2,062Cowlitz
1,712Jefferson
1,645Pacific
1,598Wahkiakum
921Grays Harbor
880Mason
809Skamania
638Clallam

Heck, Snohomish only had 1,387 people, so it used to be smaller than Wahkiakum :P

Columbia had 7,103 people, while King only had 6,980.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on July 28, 2011, 10:05:45 AM
Wow... Columbia only has a bit more than 4,000 residents today. Fail.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on July 29, 2011, 02:16:47 AM
Apparently there are serious rumors that Reichert might challenge Cantwell. I'm not sure how competitive he could be, but at least he isn't Rossi and his new district will probably be a comfortable hold for the GOP.

http://blogs.seattleweekly.com/dailyweekly/2011/07/will_dave_reichert_challenge_maria_cantwell_senate.php


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on July 29, 2011, 02:23:18 AM
If he's running, it's probably due to the Republicans attempt to shore up his district having failed.

Democrat +1 representative!

Looks like Bgwah might finally get his wish.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 29, 2011, 03:11:11 AM
Cantwell would win.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on July 29, 2011, 12:56:09 PM
If he's running, it's probably due to the Republicans attempt to shore up his district having failed.

Democrat +1 representative!

Looks like Bgwah might finally get his wish.

Does this mean no cross-cascades district!! HOORAY!!!

Though I just remembered that I am being represented by 'moderate' and 'independent' Herrera-Beutwhateverhernameisnow. Dear lord is she boring/a republican sheep. But I wont have to deal with her after redistricting, right? RIGHT?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on July 29, 2011, 06:56:27 PM
The only way I can see Reichert running for the U.S. Senate is if redistricting leaves him in a considerably worse position.  Otherwise, there is no point in making a kamikaze run.  I would bet money that Sen. Cantwell would defeat him.  However, Reichert would force Cantwell to run a real campaign, which is more than Scott Stanzel could do.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 30, 2011, 12:47:09 AM
Reichert isn't going anywhere; he's just posturing to get a better district.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on July 30, 2011, 05:26:18 AM
As an Oregonian I am envious of this fine thread you all have for your state. I learned quite a bit about WA from reading the previous 175 pages

:3


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on July 30, 2011, 08:44:51 AM
Wow! You read all 176 pages? You deserve a medal or sumthin'.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 03, 2011, 01:43:26 AM
Well, establishment hack Jay Inslee voted for the debt ceiling deal. Hopefully we'll have Dennis Kucinich in that seat come January 2013. (And Cheryl Christ in WA-10)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CT27 on August 03, 2011, 04:43:29 AM
If not this election, when do you think the GOP will take back the governor's office in WA?

One party won't hold it forever I think. ;)


At least the WA GOP has started to nominate better gubernatorial candidates than Craswell or Carlson.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 03, 2011, 09:41:42 AM
Well, establishment hack Jay Inslee voted for the debt ceiling deal. Hopefully we'll have Dennis Kucinich in that seat come January 2013. (And Cheryl Christ in WA-10)

I really don't get why people like Cheryl Christ that much. I talked to her once in the 2006 primary when she challenged Baird and she came across as a principled but at the same time extremely airy. I am not sure how much is going on in that head of hers.

Now Heck however seems to have the opposite problem, smart as all else but a but on the boring side.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on August 03, 2011, 06:10:36 PM
Is Inslee going to bleed liberal support to McKenna because of his vote?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 03, 2011, 06:13:50 PM
Is Inslee going to bleed liberal support to McKenna because of his vote?

No.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 03, 2011, 06:15:18 PM
Is Inslee going to bleed liberal support to McKenna because of his vote?

???


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on August 03, 2011, 06:23:42 PM
Is Inslee going to bleed liberal support to McKenna because of his vote?

???

His vote to raise the debt ceiling.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 03, 2011, 06:24:51 PM

I know what vote you're referring to. I just don't understand how you could possibly think that vote would cause liberals to vote for an even more conservative candidate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 03, 2011, 06:34:23 PM
I might vote for random and/or joke candidates in the primary, but Inslee and Cantwell will get my vote in the general.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on August 04, 2011, 06:28:18 PM
Hmm didn't see any posts on this May 2011 Public Policy Polling poll (PPPP) for Washington state that included a question about gay marriage (maybe I missed it?):

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/05/washington-says-no-thanks-to-kucinich.html

Quote
Washington voters narrowly think same sex marriage should be legal, by a 48/46 margin. As everywhere this is very much a generational issue. Voters under 30 are strongly supportive of gay marriage at 57/39 while senior citizens are opposed to it by a 49/39 spread. Middle aged voters fall in between but slightly on the side of gay marriage being legal. The divide along age lines means support for gay marriage in the state will just keep on continuing to grow.

I hear Inslee already announced his support which is cool. We're in a similar situation here in OR. Our current governor supports it and PPP did a poll back in June 2011 on us:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/06/oregon-miscellaneous.html

Quote
Oregon voters narrowly support gay marriage, 48/42.

So 48/42 support for OR and 48/46 support for WA in 2011. Kind of disappointed neither of us is above 50% yet but I imagine it will keep going up. We're probably going to have a ballot measure on it in 2012. Any plans for WA?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 04, 2011, 06:31:44 PM
It couldn't pass the State Senate right now. Too many conservative and vulnerable Democrats.

An initiative might be able to pass but I've heard no plans for one.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 05, 2011, 01:40:42 PM
He's back:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2015823653_kucinich05m.html

I really think he is going to take the plunge and run in WA-01. Though I am also of the opinion that he wouldn't make it out of the top-two primary.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 05, 2011, 01:50:44 PM
Disagree on not making it out. If there are five or six Democrats running he only needs 20% of the vote to make it to November. He can get that on name recognition alone.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 05, 2011, 02:08:46 PM
Disagree on not making it out. If there are five or six Democrats running he only needs 20% of the vote to make it to November. He can get that on name recognition alone.

Do you think Pelz would allow the democrats to remain divided for very long? I feel like there would be significant pressure to present a unified front against Kucinich.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 05, 2011, 05:03:40 PM
On the other hand, it's certainly possible more than one Republican will run. For all we know it could end up being a D vs. D race. ;)

At least Hope seems to be running for county executive... (he's currently in WA-2, but I don't know where he'll be in 2012)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 08, 2011, 01:04:20 PM
I've been working on a map of what I think the LDs will end up looking like (long story short: Dems are screwed).

I first built a .drf of the current LDs though so if anyone wants that to make their own LD map feel free to PM me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 08, 2011, 02:34:48 PM
I've been working on a map of what I think the LDs will end up looking like (long story short: Dems are screwed).

I first built a .drf of the current LDs though so if anyone wants that to make their own LD map feel free to PM me.

Long story plz


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 08, 2011, 02:37:30 PM
I've been working on a map of what I think the LDs will end up looking like (long story short: Dems are screwed).

I first built a .drf of the current LDs though so if anyone wants that to make their own LD map feel free to PM me.

Long story plz

Basically all the growth is coming from Republican districts (2nd, 5th, 18th, 39th) which is going to have a domino effect into the swing and lean Democratic districts. There's a level of incumbent protection one can do but with certain districts (like the 19th for instance) there's just not enough Democratic votes to keep it in our column.

Map later today or tomorrow.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 08, 2011, 02:42:01 PM
I've been working on a map of what I think the LDs will end up looking like (long story short: Dems are screwed).

I first built a .drf of the current LDs though so if anyone wants that to make their own LD map feel free to PM me.

Long story plz

Basically all the growth is coming from Republican districts (2nd, 5th, 18th, 39th) which is going to have a domino effect into the swing and lean Democratic districts. There's a level of incumbent protection one can do but with certain districts (like the 19th for instance) there's just not enough Democratic votes to keep it in our column.

Map later today or tomorrow.

But even after the 2010 R landslide, we kept both Houses. And the 5th is probably trending D anyway.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 08, 2011, 02:45:33 PM
Oh you're correct; it's not a seismic shift or anything. But I think Dems are net losers in the process.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 08, 2011, 02:49:08 PM
Well duh, but it's not that bad. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 08, 2011, 02:51:08 PM
Fine, Dems are screwed going to be a little hurt :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 08, 2011, 03:00:41 PM
We could realistically lose the State Senate (the 10th and the 25th are in real danger and the only thing keeping us in the majority at that point would be Tim Sheldon).

Not that having Democratic control of the State Senate is really worth anything given what happened last session...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 08, 2011, 03:28:37 PM
Maybe, but who knows, we might win back 2010 losses, too. I know Jarrett's old seat is up again next year (last year was a special).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 08, 2011, 05:46:32 PM
We could realistically lose the State Senate (the 10th and the 25th are in real danger and the only thing keeping us in the majority at that point would be Tim Sheldon).

Not that having Democratic control of the State Senate is really worth anything given what happened last session...

Tim Sheldon.....


I have voted against that man so many times and yet he still refuses to go away!

By the way what are the chances that I no longer am represented by Sheldon after redistricting? I live in the Western Thurston County section of his LD (the 35th).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 08, 2011, 05:52:40 PM
Tough to say. Fred Finn lives around there and they'll have to keep his home in the 35th. But the district is also going to have to shift towards the Aberdeen/Hoquiam area so it may lose parts of Thurston County to account for that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 08, 2011, 07:59:18 PM

Not that having Democratic control of the State Senate is really worth anything given what happened last session...
Well, what else could they have done other than cut spending....? The public rejected any form of tax increase....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 08, 2011, 08:03:07 PM

Not that having Democratic control of the State Senate is really worth anything given what happened last session...
Well, what else could they have done other than cut spending....? The public rejected any form of tax increase....

The shredding of workers' comp was entirely unnecessary.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 08, 2011, 09:21:29 PM
I honestly haven't been paying a lot of attention to legislative redistricting. I'm thinking there's a good chance I'll be moved from 5 to 45, though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on August 09, 2011, 01:50:34 AM
Is Washington state going to have major budget fights in the legislature every year now like California because of that 2010 ballot measure that mandated a 2/3 supermajority for tax increases?

We don't really have major budget fights here in Oregon but we do have a 3/5 supermajority requirement for tax increases.

I really think raising taxes should only need a simple majority :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 10, 2011, 04:03:28 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2015870631_kennewick_candidate_threatens.html

wtf


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 10, 2011, 04:35:53 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2015870631_kennewick_candidate_threatens.html

wtf
Incredibly disturbing.... Does he value life that lowly....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on August 12, 2011, 04:17:40 AM
Washington has an illegal immigrant problem?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 12, 2011, 04:22:07 AM
We have illegal immigrants, yes, especially in the Yakima and Tri-Cities area. I wouldn't say that's a "problem" though. They keep the economy running out there.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 12, 2011, 06:18:20 AM
Vancouver Mayor Tim Leavitt is apparently thinking about running in the 3rd District, but he's not saying which party he'd run as because he's a moderate or something (I'm sure the Washington Democratic Party is going to be ready to jump right on board after starting out your campaign with a statement like that!) http://www.columbian.com/news/2011/aug/11/vancouver-mayor-weighing-congressional-race/

Setting aside the extreme difficulty he has now created for himself in winning over the Democratic base, Leavitt would also be a pretty awful candidate given his record. He beat a long-time incumbent in 2009 after running on an anti-toll platform for the Columbia River Crossing. He then completely reversed his position several months into office. I'd imagine his approval rating is pretty awful and the attack ads pretty much write themselves.

The article also mentions that Clark County Commissioner Steve Stuart - a committed Democrat who is friends with State Senator Craig Pridemore - is mulling over the race. He'd be a much better candidate though I still suspect he'd end up coming up short.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 12, 2011, 07:00:28 AM
I hear Leavitt endorsed Dino Rossi last year, which I would think would eliminate any chance of him having support of the Democratic Party.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 12, 2011, 02:43:21 PM
Vancouver Mayor Tim Leavitt is apparently thinking about running in the 3rd District, but he's not saying which party he'd run as because he's a moderate or something (I'm sure the Washington Democratic Party is going to be ready to jump right on board after starting out your campaign with a statement like that!) http://www.columbian.com/news/2011/aug/11/vancouver-mayor-weighing-congressional-race/

Setting aside the extreme difficulty he has now created for himself in winning over the Democratic base, Leavitt would also be a pretty awful candidate given his record. He beat a long-time incumbent in 2009 after running on an anti-toll platform for the Columbia River Crossing. He then completely reversed his position several months into office. I'd imagine his approval rating is pretty awful and the attack ads pretty much write themselves.

The article also mentions that Clark County Commissioner Steve Stuart - a committed Democrat who is friends with State Senator Craig Pridemore - is mulling over the race. He'd be a much better candidate though I still suspect he'd end up coming up short.

He'll probably wait for Jeanne Harris to give him orders before he makes his decision.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on August 12, 2011, 06:36:10 PM
Is Washington state going to have major budget fights in the legislature every year now like California because of that 2010 ballot measure that mandated a 2/3 supermajority for tax increases?

We don't really have major budget fights here in Oregon but we do have a 3/5 supermajority requirement for tax increases.

I really think raising taxes should only need a simple majority :P

If anti-tax conservatives demand supermajorities of two-thirds or three-fifths, is it so unreasonable to demand similar-sized majorities for cutting taxes and spending? 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on August 12, 2011, 09:58:47 PM
We have illegal immigrants, yes, especially in the Yakima and Tri-Cities area. I wouldn't say that's a "problem" though. They keep the economy running out there.

I meant on par with say California or other places in the Southwest, where there is a lot of pressure on public services because of it. I know the farming industry basically relies on them nowadays, so it doesn't surprise me too much that there are many in Yakima, but I never really hear anything in the news about a Washington state Jan Brewer like figure, so I haven't really associated illegal immigration as a major issue with Washingtonians.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 13, 2011, 02:08:07 AM
We have illegal immigrants, yes, especially in the Yakima and Tri-Cities area. I wouldn't say that's a "problem" though. They keep the economy running out there.

I meant on par with say California or other places in the Southwest, where there is a lot of pressure on public services because of it. I know the farming industry basically relies on them nowadays, so it doesn't surprise me too much that there are many in Yakima, but I never really hear anything in the news about a Washington state Jan Brewer like figure, so I haven't really associated illegal immigration as a major issue with Washingtonians.

That's because we like to keep our crazy republicans as far away from the governorship as possible.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 13, 2011, 03:23:37 PM
We have illegal immigrants, yes, especially in the Yakima and Tri-Cities area. I wouldn't say that's a "problem" though. They keep the economy running out there.

I meant on par with say California or other places in the Southwest, where there is a lot of pressure on public services because of it. I know the farming industry basically relies on them nowadays, so it doesn't surprise me too much that there are many in Yakima, but I never really hear anything in the news about a Washington state Jan Brewer like figure, so I haven't really associated illegal immigration as a major issue with Washingtonians.

That's because we like to keep our crazy republicans as far away from the governorship as possible.
More like, the Washington state Republican party knows they won't have the slightest chance of ever catching the governorship if they ran a far right candidate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on August 13, 2011, 05:37:23 PM
We have illegal immigrants, yes, especially in the Yakima and Tri-Cities area. I wouldn't say that's a "problem" though. They keep the economy running out there.

I meant on par with say California or other places in the Southwest, where there is a lot of pressure on public services because of it. I know the farming industry basically relies on them nowadays, so it doesn't surprise me too much that there are many in Yakima, but I never really hear anything in the news about a Washington state Jan Brewer like figure, so I haven't really associated illegal immigration as a major issue with Washingtonians.

That's because we like to keep our crazy republicans as far away from the governorship as possible.
More like, the Washington state Republican party knows they won't have the slightest chance of ever catching the governorship if they ran a far right candidate.

I'm not talking about Republicans, I'm just observing that since no one seems to mention the issue in the state, that it isn't much of a problem in Washington.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 13, 2011, 05:53:39 PM
We have illegal immigrants, yes, especially in the Yakima and Tri-Cities area. I wouldn't say that's a "problem" though. They keep the economy running out there.

I meant on par with say California or other places in the Southwest, where there is a lot of pressure on public services because of it. I know the farming industry basically relies on them nowadays, so it doesn't surprise me too much that there are many in Yakima, but I never really hear anything in the news about a Washington state Jan Brewer like figure, so I haven't really associated illegal immigration as a major issue with Washingtonians.

That's because we like to keep our crazy republicans as far away from the governorship as possible.
More like, the Washington state Republican party knows they won't have the slightest chance of ever catching the governorship if they ran a far right candidate.

I'm not talking about Republicans, I'm just observing that since no one seems to mention the issue in the state, that it isn't much of a problem in Washington.

Oh there are republicans that talk about it constantly, they just don't really have the means of doing anything. Meanwhile the rest of the state seems to be rather fine with immigrants, although I would say that its more of an apathetic state-wide view rather than a pro-immigrants/immigration view.

On a side note there definitely are a relatively large number of immigrants in the state, so it's not that there simply "isn't an immigration 'problem'" but rather the difference in public perception compared to other states.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 16, 2011, 06:25:23 PM
So by what margin is the tunnel authorization thing going to fail by today?

And more importantly: does it matter?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 16, 2011, 09:06:58 PM
So by what margin is the tunnel authorization thing going to fail by today?

And more importantly: does it matter?
Lol. I wish they'd just build something. I'm not fan of the tunnel, but honestly, were playing a very dangerous game.....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 16, 2011, 10:21:03 PM
Tunnel "wins" with 60%.

Hague only got 39% in her primary---definitely might see her go down in November. I hope so, at least. Mitchell is currently leading Creighton for 2nd place.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 16, 2011, 10:48:12 PM
Tunnel "wins" with 60%.

Hague only got 39% in her primary---definitely might see her go down in November. I hope so, at least. Mitchell is currently leading Creighton for 2nd place.

Thank god. I think Seattle may have finally learned its lesson after the Monorail debacle (just think, I could be jetting around town in a freaking awesome monorail had voters not been nutzo)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 16, 2011, 10:51:20 PM
lol. goodspaceguy. I'd vote for him ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 16, 2011, 10:52:55 PM
Reardon is also leading Hope 53-46 right now for Snohomish County Executive. A Reardon win is good for Democrats who do not want Hope in a better position to run for statewide office some day... :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 17, 2011, 08:07:57 AM
Reardon is also leading Hope 53-46 right now for Snohomish County Executive. A Reardon win is good for Democrats who do not want Hope in a better position to run for statewide office some day... :P

This is the most important race this year IMO... not only would Hope losing deprive the Republicans of a future statewide candidate (for now at least) but the fact that an incumbent Democrat is able to hold on in Snohomish County bodes well for us in 2012.

Reardon is also a potential statewide candidate for our side so him holding on is good in that sense as well.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 17, 2011, 08:51:58 AM
Why are they even having a primary if there are only two candidates?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 17, 2011, 09:09:02 AM
Why are they even having a primary if there are only two candidates?

Partisan offices follow the top-two primary law... and the top-two primary law says that all partisan offices have to appear on the primary ballot.

The only impact it has officially is that whomever finishes first in the primary gets their name printed on the ballot first in the general.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 17, 2011, 09:12:37 AM
Why are they even having a primary if there are only two candidates?

Partisan offices follow the top-two primary law... and the top-two primary law says that all partisan offices have to appear on the primary ballot.

The only impact it has officially is that whomever finishes first in the primary gets their name printed on the ballot first in the general.

Oh, I forgot only silly King County switched to non-partisan elections...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 17, 2011, 09:19:06 AM
Why are they even having a primary if there are only two candidates?

Partisan offices follow the top-two primary law... and the top-two primary law says that all partisan offices have to appear on the primary ballot.

The only impact it has officially is that whomever finishes first in the primary gets their name printed on the ballot first in the general.

Oh, I forgot only silly King County switched to non-partisan elections...

I'm not a fan of non-partisan elections by any means, but the switch may be what allows you guys to ditch Jane Hague this year.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 17, 2011, 02:52:04 PM
Here's a sign of how little people pay attention to local politics: In a race for Puyallup School Board this month, one of the candidates - Dane Looker - dropped out of the race after deciding to run for the State House next year instead. However, he dropped out of the race after the ballots had already been printed.

Current results have him receiving 40% of the vote, only 0.5% behind the first place finisher.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 17, 2011, 03:10:51 PM
I voted for Reardon, fyi, though Mike Hope is a pretty good guy, despite ripping off Obama's signs.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 17, 2011, 03:21:56 PM
I voted for Reardon, fyi, though Mike Hope is a pretty good guy, despite ripping off Obama's signs.

It took me a couple of drives through Snohomish County before I realized what the heck those were. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 17, 2011, 03:24:38 PM
I voted for Reardon, fyi, though Mike Hope is a pretty good guy, despite ripping off Obama's signs.

It took me a couple of drives through Snohomish County before I realized what the heck those were. :P

He used pretty much the same signs in 2008 and 2010 as well, when he was running for the legislature.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 17, 2011, 03:28:55 PM
For some reason Mike Hope has a national debt counter on his website.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 18, 2011, 11:27:49 AM
Anyone want to do a Washington quiz? We can't let Connecticut and Pennsylvania have all the fun? :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 19, 2011, 03:12:06 PM
Anyone want to do a Washington quiz? We can't let Connecticut and Pennsylvania have all the fun? :P

Yes, please make it. That why I can take the quiz. ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 19, 2011, 04:02:21 PM
Anyone want to do a Washington quiz? We can't let Connecticut and Pennsylvania have all the fun? :P

Yes, please make it. That why I can take the quiz. ;D

I'm sure you or Alcon could probably make a better quiz as you guys know more details of Washington political history than I do, but here's one I slapped together pretty quickly:

ELECTED OFFICIALS
1.Who is Washington's current governor?
2. When was the current governor first elected?
3. Which position did the current governor hold prior to becoming governor?
4. Who was the only Washington governor to serve three terms?
5. Who is the longest serving current US House of Representatives member from Washington?
6. The Washington Legislature is made up of how many Senators and Representatives?
7. Who is the current Speaker of the Washington House of Representatives?

GENERAL TRIVIA
8. How many counties does Washington have?
9. What is the newest county in Washington?
10. Who is the only major third party candidate to win statewide in Washington (not including Fusion candidates)?
11. Which is the only reliably Republican county west of the Cascades?
12. Which is the most Democratic of the San Juan Islands?
13. Which major island is famously divided between a highly Democratic southern end and a highly Republican northern end?
14. The heavily Republican enclave in northern Whatcom County is most likely due to what factor?

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES
15. Which favorite son candidate twice won Washington presidential caucuses?
16. Which county most strongly went to Hillary Clinton in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary?
17. Which one county voted for Ross Perot as a write-in in both the 1992 Democratic and Republican presidential primaries?
18. Which one county did Al Gore win in the 1988 Democratic presidential caucus?
19. Which candidate in 1988 won Washington for their only state victory in the contiguous US?
20. Which three counties were won by John Anderson in the 1980 Republican presidential caucus?

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTIONS
21. Who was the last third party candidate to win a county in a Washington presidential election, and in what year?
22. Which county in Washington has currently gone the longest without voting Republican in presidential elections, and when did it last go R?
23. Which county in Washington has currently gone the longest without voting Democratic in presidential elections, and when did it last go D?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 19, 2011, 10:37:04 PM
1. Gregoire
2. 2004
3. Attorney General
4. ERROR: There are two. Langlie and Evans, though only Evans' were consecutive.
5. Dicks
6. 49 and 98
7. Chopp

8. 39
9. Uh oh, first one I'm not 100% sure on. I know it was founded in 1911 and is in the NE---Ferry or Pend Oreille. Lean Pend Oreille, since Ferry might have been named after Governor Ferry a bit earlier.
10. Is this a trick question? I'm thinking it must be Roosevelt in 1912.
11. Lewis.
12. Waldron.
13. I'm not sure I'd call it "famous," but presumably Whidbey Island.
14. Lynden, a Dutch Christian enclave ala Sioux County, IA.

15. Jackson
16. Cowlitz...? (second I'm not sure of)
17. I don't know... this is your specialty! I'll guess Skamania just because they're wacky like that.
18. Again, I don't know. I don't even have a good guess. He was kind of a conservative Democrat back then, right? (Rick Perry supported him!) I'll just blindly guess Asotin. :P
19. Robertson
20. I don't know. Probably Jefferson and San Juan, I'll have to just guess on the third and say Clallam. :P

21. Probably LaFollette in 1928.
22. I think the answer is Grays Harbor... I know GH/Pacific both turned Dem in 1932, and one barely voted for Eisenhower, so I'm not positive which one it is, but Grays Harbor seems right.
23. Uh oh. Well, I believe Whitman, Adams, and Lincoln were the only ones to vote Goldwater, so one of those 3. Whitman voted for Obama so we can eliminate that. I think the answer is Adams, I made a chart once, and I remember Adams. What year though, I do not recall. But since I know FDR won all 39 counties in 1936, I will say 1940.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 20, 2011, 12:14:03 AM
I pretty much know all the ones bgwah got and don't know all the ones he didn't get except 17 - it's San Juan.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 21, 2011, 06:15:28 PM
I had this chart in the back of my mind when I answered #23:

It shows how long counties have voted the same as each other:

()

I'm gonna work on an updated version to include 2008 now. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on August 21, 2011, 06:36:48 PM
I had this chart in the back of my mind when I answered #23:

It shows how long counties have voted the same as each other:

()

I'm gonna work on an updated version to include 2008 now. :)

It's hard to believe King County was at one time a Republican stronghold.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 22, 2011, 02:09:30 AM
bgwah got all of them except the one Meeker got and numbers 18 and 20 (and number 21, as Follette ran in 1924 not 1928 :P ), the last of which wasn't a very fair question since it's not something you can find on the internet. I can tell you the answers though unless anyone else wants to guess.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 22, 2011, 02:28:57 AM
Meeker just cheated and copies my answers, as far as I'm concerned. Therefore I win! And yes please tell me the answers. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 22, 2011, 01:31:16 PM
For number 18, Gore won Benton County in 1988. The Tri-Cities seem to have a habit of being contrary in Democratic presidential races; Benton and Franklin were the only counties in 1984 to go for Mondale. For number 20, I realized after I posted it that the question might not actually be accurate, as I don't have complete results for the 1980 R caucus, but the answer I was looking for was King County, Thurston County, and Kitsap County. Those are the only three I've seen reported as going for Anderson, but I'm not actually sure about San Juan or Jefferson. I need to go find an old Port Angeles/Port Townsend newspaper or something to know for sure.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 26, 2011, 12:58:45 AM
I'm bored. I want some polls.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 31, 2011, 05:51:21 AM
I forgot to check Whatcom County's primary elections. Did the Democrats fail to make the general for county exeuctive? Epic fail for a lean D county. Like, pathetic, really.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on August 31, 2011, 05:54:15 AM
I forgot to check Whatcom County's primary elections. Did the Democrats fail to make the general for county exeuctive? Epic fail for a lean D county. Like, pathetic, really.

Woah. How did Democrats allow that to happen? Yep the county will now have the choice between a Tea Party conservative, and a slightly more moderate one.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 31, 2011, 08:01:12 AM
Sometimes things like that happen when elections are non-partisan. Louws was also helped by his name recognition; if it'd been any other person with a similar bio but different last name they probably would've finished behind Stalheim.

I think Louws is clearly the more palatable option between him and Ericksen. Though I've heard the Democrats may try to organize a write-in campaign for Stalheim as a protest.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 31, 2011, 08:09:03 AM
A map of that election would be amusing. I'd guess Louws wins Lynden, Stalheim wins Bellingham and Ericksen wins everywhere else?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 31, 2011, 01:39:20 PM
A map of that election would be amusing. I'd guess Louws wins Lynden, Stalheim wins Bellingham and Ericksen wins everywhere else?

That's basically what happened, though Ericksen won some of North Bellingham.

Would a write-in campaign for Stalheim actually work? Aren't there usually sore loser laws that would prevent him from being a valid candidate in the general?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 31, 2011, 03:13:07 PM
I forgot to check Whatcom County's primary elections. Did the Democrats fail to make the general for county exeuctive? Epic fail for a lean D county. Like, pathetic, really.

:(  Indeed.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 31, 2011, 03:13:19 PM
Map time! Red is Stalheim, Blue is Ericksen, Green is Louws.

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_31_08_11_3_12_23.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 31, 2011, 03:17:47 PM
^ Cool map! It's quite an informative split, telling you a lot about Whatcom County. :)

I wonder what Happy Valley will do in the general! :D




And RI, where did you learn to do precinct maps? I'd like to learn how to.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 31, 2011, 03:30:57 PM
What do you think will happen in the Mayoral race, Fuzzy? I see Pike and Linville basically tied, with Pike winning by a fraction of a percent. I can't really imagine conservative voters shifting to Pike, so I'm inclined to think Linville will win the general.

I've had two people from Vermont liken Bellingham to Burlington. Perhaps this is what their Progressive vs. Democrat elections are like? ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 31, 2011, 10:33:08 PM
Cantwell has stated her support for gay marriage

http://blog.seattlepi.com/stepforward/2011/08/30/senator-maria-cantwell-supports-marriage-equality-in-washington-state/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 31, 2011, 10:51:49 PM
What do you think will happen in the Mayoral race, Fuzzy? I see Pike and Linville basically tied, with Pike winning by a fraction of a percent. I can't really imagine conservative voters shifting to Pike, so I'm inclined to think Linville will win the general.

I see something like that too.  Kelli has support from a lot of the small businesses here, so I think that will probably put here a bit over the top here.  I'm backing Pike though, since he signed that deal for Chuckanut mountain and since he strongly opposes the coal initiative, or so I've heard.  But Kelli seems alright too, so it wouldn't be the end of the world (or the waterfront) if she won.  ;)

I've had two people from Vermont liken Bellingham to Burlington. Perhaps this is what their Progressive vs. Democrat elections are like? ;D

Probably.  ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 31, 2011, 10:53:23 PM
Cantwell has stated her support for gay marriage

http://blog.seattlepi.com/stepforward/2011/08/30/senator-maria-cantwell-supports-marriage-equality-in-washington-state/

:D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on September 01, 2011, 03:09:10 PM
Cantwell has stated her support for gay marriage

http://blog.seattlepi.com/stepforward/2011/08/30/senator-maria-cantwell-supports-marriage-equality-in-washington-state/

Awesome but why hasn't Murray done so too? I always thought she was to the left of Cantwell too.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 01, 2011, 03:21:41 PM
Cantwell has stated her support for gay marriage

http://blog.seattlepi.com/stepforward/2011/08/30/senator-maria-cantwell-supports-marriage-equality-in-washington-state/

Awesome but why hasn't Murray done so too? I always thought she was to the left of Cantwell too.

She's come out against DOMA... it may be as simple as she hasn't been asked the question lately.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on September 01, 2011, 03:56:13 PM
Cantwell has stated her support for gay marriage

http://blog.seattlepi.com/stepforward/2011/08/30/senator-maria-cantwell-supports-marriage-equality-in-washington-state/

Awesome but why hasn't Murray done so too? I always thought she was to the left of Cantwell too.

I actually asked her if she supported gay marriage when I met her in D.C., but she just said it was a "state's right" and moved on.  :P  lol


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on September 01, 2011, 04:11:45 PM
Cantwell has stated her support for gay marriage

http://blog.seattlepi.com/stepforward/2011/08/30/senator-maria-cantwell-supports-marriage-equality-in-washington-state/

Awesome but why hasn't Murray done so too? I always thought she was to the left of Cantwell too.

I actually asked her if she supported gay marriage when I met her in D.C., but she just said it was a "state's right" and moved on.  :P  lol

:P indeed.

She's the last west coast senator yet to support it publicly.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on September 01, 2011, 08:54:20 PM
Even including Alaska?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on September 01, 2011, 09:27:44 PM

No, Washington is way ahead of Alaska. I guess I should have been more specific.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on September 01, 2011, 10:54:46 PM
Cantwell has stated her support for gay marriage

http://blog.seattlepi.com/stepforward/2011/08/30/senator-maria-cantwell-supports-marriage-equality-in-washington-state/

Awesome but why hasn't Murray done so too? I always thought she was to the left of Cantwell too.

On social policy I think Cantwell is as liberal as Murray, perhaps slightly moreso on this issue.  


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 02, 2011, 09:33:50 AM
For those who don't follow Pierce County politics very closely, our Assessor-Treasurer is a nutcase who harasses his employees and as such a recall effort has been organized against him. The petition requirement is enormous (25% of the voters when he was elected in 2008) but it looks like it has a chance to make the November ballot - though it's too close to say for sure.

Currently 50,646 of the required 65,495 have been approved while another 15,250 have been challenged for being duplicates, illegible, non-voters, etc. Another 18,607 or more await verification.

http://recalldalewasham.org/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 03, 2011, 11:28:18 AM
Things are looking a little worse. 53,798 have been accepted, 16,996 challenged, 13,709 remain.

Needed acceptance rate: 77.5%
Current acceptance rate: 76.0%

Some of those challenges will turn into accepts... no telling how many though.

There's going to be another update later today.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on September 06, 2011, 04:25:24 PM
http://heraldnet.com/article/20110828/NEWS01/708289889/0/NEWS

Apparently Reagan Dunn thinks that letting Cantwell have a freeride for reelection will somehow benefit him? Anyways it looks like Reichert might be more serious about running for senate than the talk was about him running against Murray. Baumgartner is also being talked about as an acceptable alternative.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 06, 2011, 04:32:22 PM
Whatever happened to the Bush deputy press secretary?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on September 06, 2011, 04:47:18 PM
Whatever happened to the Bush deputy press secretary?

Stanzel probably realized he would lose badly in the state. It looks like Baumgartner is forming an exploratory committee. He doesn't really have anything to lose since he was elected to State Senate last year, and a good campaign against Cantwell could set him up nicely for another statewide bid in the future. That is of course assuming that next year will not be a 1980 style blowout, and Cantwell becomes seriously at risk of losing.

http://www.nwdailymarker.com/2011/09/baumgartner-said-to-be-organizing-exploratory-committee-to-run-against-cantwell-in-2012/

Why are some Republicans worried about a competitive senate race? The DNC is going to be spending a lot of money in Washington already because of the Governor's race. If they're using the argument that Murray's race helped Dems down the ballot, it's because they found Dino Rossi to run. They seriously expected a landslide across the state with him leading the ticket?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 06, 2011, 04:55:33 PM
Baumgartner isn't going to fair any better than Stanzel would. Both of their name recognition numbers are in the single digits. Baumgartner is also going to have to pretty much live several hours away from his home for the next 15 months if he's serious about this.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 06, 2011, 09:08:35 PM
I don't think the Recall Washam folks are going to make it. Looks like they'll end up a thousand or so signatures short.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 06, 2011, 09:16:05 PM
Isn't his term almost 3/4ths over anyway?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 06, 2011, 09:26:29 PM
Isn't his term almost 3/4ths over anyway?

Yeah, but it's still disappointing to see so much hard work go to waste.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on September 06, 2011, 10:22:20 PM
I have a theory.
Howard Schultz recently has been asserting himself as a businessman 'above the fray' and has urged for a bipartisan deal on the debt debate. Any chance he is positioning himself and getting name recognition to run as Bloomberg's veep with that unity '08 clone party?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on September 07, 2011, 10:47:24 PM
I have a theory.
Howard Schultz recently has been asserting himself as a businessman 'above the fray' and has urged for a bipartisan deal on the debt debate. Any chance he is positioning himself and getting name recognition to run as Bloomberg's veep with that unity '08 clone party?
Doubtful. He's a latte liberal in the disguise of a corporate boss.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on September 09, 2011, 05:11:31 PM
Did anyone feel the 6.7 earthquake off Vancouver Island today? I didn't even notice.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on September 09, 2011, 07:41:40 PM
Lol, I actually vividly remember the time around 12:40, and I felt absolutely nothing. Most people who felt it where in buildings of 4-5+ stories.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on September 11, 2011, 01:57:55 PM
I didn't feel anything either.  lol


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on September 11, 2011, 01:58:44 PM
We should have a convention for Washington posters in real life.  That would be awesome!  :D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on September 11, 2011, 07:57:38 PM
We should have a convention for Washington posters in real life.  That would be awesome!  :D

We would probably get in an argument right away about Tim Eyeman or something and then devolve into chaos.

Speaking of Tim Eyeman are there similar figures to him in other states?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on September 11, 2011, 08:01:59 PM
We should have a convention for Washington posters in real life.  That would be awesome!  :D

We would probably get in an argument right away about Tim Eyeman or something and then devolve into chaos.


:(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on September 12, 2011, 02:08:39 AM
We should have a convention for Washington posters in real life.  That would be awesome!  :D

We would probably get in an argument right away about Tim Eyeman or something and then devolve into chaos.

Speaking of Tim Eyeman are there similar figures to him in other states?

Not that I know of...maybe someone in California; there aren't that many states that are as fixated by referenda as we are.

btw, are there any Washington posters who actually like Eyman? Maybe that Volksliberalist guy?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 12, 2011, 02:26:37 AM
We should have a convention for Washington posters in real life.  That would be awesome!  :D

We would probably get in an argument right away about Tim Eyeman or something and then devolve into chaos.

Speaking of Tim Eyeman are there similar figures to him in other states?

Not that I know of...maybe someone in California; there aren't that many states that are as fixated by referenda as we are.

btw, are there any Washington posters who actually like Eyman? Maybe that Volksliberalist guy?

The real question is, are there any states where a lowlife can make a living off of proposing stupid initiatives every year?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on September 12, 2011, 03:01:34 AM
We should have a convention for Washington posters in real life.  That would be awesome!  :D

We would probably get in an argument right away about Tim Eyeman or something and then devolve into chaos.

Speaking of Tim Eyeman are there similar figures to him in other states?

Not that I know of...maybe someone in California; there aren't that many states that are as fixated by referenda as we are.

btw, are there any Washington posters who actually like Eyman? Maybe that Volksliberalist guy?

The real question is, are there any states where a lowlife can make a living off of proposing stupid initiatives every year?

I don't know but somehow he manages to get a good number of them passed (eventhough I always say to myself that Washington is too smart to fall for another Eyman ploy). Didn't he get caught once stealing money away from one of his campaigns for personal purposes?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on September 12, 2011, 03:03:57 AM
Oh and I just found this lovely gem:

http://timeyman.com/

Best part is the "Destroy Goverment Game"


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 12, 2011, 02:36:43 PM
State Auditor Brian Sonntag has announced he won't run for re-election.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 12, 2011, 02:53:35 PM
State Auditor Brian Sonntag has announced he won't run for re-election.

What!?! Only 20 years? Nobody has served such a short tenure in over a century!

https://uselectionatlas.org/WIKI/index.php/State_Auditor_of_Washington


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 13, 2011, 12:08:14 AM
Washam's recall will not be on the ballot. Final tally was 64,178 and a recall needed 65,495 - 1,317 signatures short :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on September 13, 2011, 02:11:53 AM
State Auditor Brian Sonntag has announced he won't run for re-election.

What!?! Only 20 years? Nobody has served such a short tenure in over a century!

https://uselectionatlas.org/WIKI/index.php/State_Auditor_of_Washington

Why hasn't Washington introduced term limits? :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on September 13, 2011, 02:14:55 AM
State Auditor Brian Sonntag has announced he won't run for re-election.

What!?! Only 20 years? Nobody has served such a short tenure in over a century!

https://uselectionatlas.org/WIKI/index.php/State_Auditor_of_Washington

Why hasn't Washington introduced term limits? :P

Because Washington is cool like that. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Napoleon on September 13, 2011, 02:15:36 AM
State Auditor Brian Sonntag has announced he won't run for re-election.

What!?! Only 20 years? Nobody has served such a short tenure in over a century!

https://uselectionatlas.org/WIKI/index.php/State_Auditor_of_Washington
Why hasn't Washington introduced term limits? :P
Washington is a liberal state


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 13, 2011, 02:37:29 AM
We actually did vote for term limits in an initiative in 1994(?) but they were declared unconstitutional.

I'm a little surprised the Washington GOP hasn't been promoting them in the past few years. I'm sure it's polling very well these days.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on September 13, 2011, 02:45:08 AM
It's not a GOP or Dem issue. It's about insuring people don't abuse their political offices.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 13, 2011, 02:59:17 AM
It's not a GOP or Dem issue. It's about insuring people don't abuse their political offices.

Despite whatever fantasy you may have created in your head, Republicans have historically been far more likely to support term limits than Democrats.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on September 13, 2011, 03:29:32 AM
Are you in DC now or something Meeker?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 13, 2011, 03:33:38 AM

I go to school out here.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on September 13, 2011, 03:35:56 AM

Interesting. Planning to stay there?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 13, 2011, 04:10:32 AM

Nope. It's a fun place to go to college but I wouldn't want to ever live anywhere but the PNW.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 13, 2011, 12:55:45 PM
Go to the redistricting thread and comment!!!! >:(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on September 13, 2011, 01:09:35 PM
State Auditor Brian Sonntag has announced he won't run for re-election.

What!?! Only 20 years? Nobody has served such a short tenure in over a century!

https://uselectionatlas.org/WIKI/index.php/State_Auditor_of_Washington

Why hasn't Washington introduced term limits? :P

Because Washington is cool like that. :P

Term limits? Eww... Isn't it obvious that you can only build up truly successful/influential politicians if they have at least 15-18 years of experience in their respective office.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on September 13, 2011, 06:07:10 PM
Okay, redistricting was a bust, now can we have another poll, please! :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on September 13, 2011, 06:37:06 PM
Okay, redistricting was a bust, now can we have another poll, please! :)

You can vote for Washington on PPP's website (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com) for their next poll.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on September 13, 2011, 07:43:22 PM
Okay, redistricting was a bust, now can we have another poll, please! :)

You can vote for Washington on PPP's website (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com) for their next poll.
Done, thanks!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 13, 2011, 08:41:16 PM
Time for a new thread title.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 13, 2011, 09:43:53 PM

I just see "Booz" and think of the Senator from Arkansas. :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 13, 2011, 09:45:50 PM
Fine, happy now?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 13, 2011, 09:46:48 PM
I guess so.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 13, 2011, 09:57:44 PM
So hard to please. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on September 13, 2011, 11:00:56 PM
Oh, you guys.  ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 14, 2011, 06:51:36 PM
Apparently this guy is going to run against Cantwell: http://www.bloomberg.com/personalities/phillip_yin/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 14, 2011, 07:07:15 PM
Apparently this guy is going to run against Cantwell: http://www.bloomberg.com/personalities/phillip_yin/

That's uh, interesting. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 14, 2011, 07:12:16 PM
Article: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2016208774_two_possible_challengers_for_c.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on September 15, 2011, 12:49:48 AM
Article: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2016208774_two_possible_challengers_for_c.html

Quote
State Republican Party Chairman Kirby Wilbur said either Yin or Baumgartner could surprise people, given current national trends. He pointed to Tuesday's Republican victory in the traditionally Democratic New York district most recently held by disgraced Congressman Anthony Weiner.

Desperation is setting in for Wilbur.  This sounds like the argument in 2010 that Martha Coakley's loss in MA was somehow a sign that Murray would lose.  Cantwell will certainly not be confused about the size of the national debt as Weprin was.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: MaxQue on September 15, 2011, 12:58:48 AM
Kirby is a real first name?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Napoleon on September 15, 2011, 01:12:37 AM
I know males and females with the name.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on September 15, 2011, 04:20:15 AM

Yes. I know the video game character kinda threw me off when I first met someone with the name. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on September 15, 2011, 04:21:58 AM
Article: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2016208774_two_possible_challengers_for_c.html

Quote
State Republican Party Chairman Kirby Wilbur said either Yin or Baumgartner could surprise people, given current national trends. He pointed to Tuesday's Republican victory in the traditionally Democratic New York district most recently held by disgraced Congressman Anthony Weiner.

Desperation is setting in for Wilbur.  This sounds like the argument in 2010 that Martha Coakley's loss in MA was somehow a sign that Murray would lose.  Cantwell will certainly not be confused about the size of the national debt as Weprin was.

The two wouldn't be bad candidates, but yeah Cantwell isn't losing unless Obama's reelection chances start looking like Carter's. I could at least see the two breaking 40 against her. Is Larsen's district still going to be competitive? I know Koster is going to run again against him.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 15, 2011, 10:03:42 AM
Sonntag claims he's thinking about running for Pierce County Assessor-Treasurer. Lulz.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 15, 2011, 05:21:04 PM
Sonntag claims he's thinking about running for Pierce County Assessor-Treasurer. Lulz.

Why? I don't understand why he doesn't just run for re-election...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 15, 2011, 05:43:59 PM
Sonntag claims he's thinking about running for Pierce County Assessor-Treasurer. Lulz.

Why? I don't understand why he doesn't just run for re-election...

http://blog.thenewstribune.com/opinion/2011/09/13/next-county-assessor-treasurer-how-about-brian-sonntag/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 15, 2011, 07:02:43 PM
We also have our first announced candidate for State Auditor since Sonntag announced his retirement -  State Rep. Mark Miloscia. (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2016221379_state_rep_mark_miloscia_to_run.html)

Dick McEntee - the GOP candidate in 2008 - is already planning on running again. Unclear whether or not the Republicans will get a better candidate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 15, 2011, 07:03:49 PM
Phillip Yin has a terrible voting record: Before the 2010 General, the last election he voted in was the 2004 General.  Also, his mailing address is in Chino, California, so evidently he splits his time between more than two places.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 15, 2011, 10:06:03 PM
McEntee again? What is this, his fourth try? :P

Interesting to Freeman run again. I wonder if the Constitution Party will try anything for Governor or Senator this time?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on September 15, 2011, 10:11:37 PM
Phillip Yin has a terrible voting record: Before the 2010 General, the last election he voted in was the 2004 General.  Also, his mailing address is in Chino, California, so evidently he splits his time between more than two places.

Well hopefully Baumgartner gets the nomination then.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on September 16, 2011, 02:10:16 PM
Article: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2016208774_two_possible_challengers_for_c.html

Quote
State Republican Party Chairman Kirby Wilbur said either Yin or Baumgartner could surprise people, given current national trends. He pointed to Tuesday's Republican victory in the traditionally Democratic New York district most recently held by disgraced Congressman Anthony Weiner.

Desperation is setting in for Wilbur.  This sounds like the argument in 2010 that Martha Coakley's loss in MA was somehow a sign that Murray would lose.  Cantwell will certainly not be confused about the size of the national debt as Weprin was.

The two wouldn't be bad candidates, but yeah Cantwell isn't losing unless Obama's reelection chances start looking like Carter's. I could at least see the two breaking 40 against her. Is Larsen's district still going to be competitive? I know Koster is going to run again against him.

Baumgartner is not Christine O'Donnell level bad (a true denzien of the D-list), but it's fair to say he is a B-list candidate that would be a speed bump for Cantwell barring some drastic unforseen event.

Larsen's chances depend on the results of the restricting committee.  I doubt he will be more vulnerable because we have used this system before and incumbent protection has tended to be the result.  My hypothesis is that Reichert and Herrera will be drawn into safer districts.  The cost will be Larsen is also made safer and a Democratic-favored 10th district.





Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 16, 2011, 02:16:10 PM
Koster may not even be in the new WA-02. It doesn't look like he's in it in any of the proposed maps. The Democrats want to shove him into WA-08, while Gorton wants to give him WA-10 and Huff wants to give him WA-01.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 19, 2011, 12:44:19 AM
Polling firm I've never heard of says:

Gov: McKenna leads Inslee 46-39

Gay marriage: 54-35 support (!?)

Pot legalization: 46-46

Eyman's initiative: 50-31 support

Liquor privatization: 51-44 support


http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2016249660_poll19m.html




Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 19, 2011, 12:46:05 AM
Strategies 360 is one of the premier Democratic consulting firms in the state. Didn't know they did polling though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 19, 2011, 12:50:35 AM
Gay marriage leading by 19 makes me seriously question the numbers. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on September 19, 2011, 01:53:46 AM
Gay marriage leading by 19 makes me seriously question the numbers. :P

...and yet they give McKenna a healthy lead and Obama's numbers seem to make sense. Perhaps they phrased that question oddly to tilt it?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on September 19, 2011, 07:05:51 PM
Wow, weird results. 54% for gay marriage! That's surprising.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 19, 2011, 11:18:04 PM
Nickels 2013?

http://www.q13fox.com/news/kcpq-nickels-i-might-run-again-20110919,0,4639303.story


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on September 19, 2011, 11:36:17 PM
As the article suggests, McKenna's lead is at least partially due to the higher name recognition that comes with being in statewide office.  But I'm under no illusions that it will be a tough race.  


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 20, 2011, 03:44:15 AM
As the article suggests, McKenna's lead is at least partially due to the higher name recognition that comes with being in statewide office.  But I'm under no illusions that it will be a tough race.  

Sketchy poll and small subsample, but the fact that Inslee leads by only 1% among those who know him, isn't good news -- unless, I guess, his former Eastern Washington constituents remember him just as well as his new ones.  If he's only leading by 1% among people who can identify the congressman in liberal WA-1, that's a bad place to be.

Also, as overjoyed as I'd be, there's no way gay marriage leads by that margin, and that's a weirdly poor result for pot considering the other findings.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on September 20, 2011, 05:15:36 AM
Washington State Democrats endorse marijuana legalization initiative: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2016249170_state_dems_back_marijuana_lega.html

It seems like there are two or three different initiatives about this in WA right now. I assume the one aimed for 2011 never picked up enough momentum? What do you all think about this one's  (I-502) chances in the legislature and/or ballot?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 20, 2011, 09:10:54 AM
The one the state party just endorsed is by far the most legitimate of the recent proposals; the other ones were organized by activists who just didn't really have their stuff together.

I suspect I-502 will make it to the ballot for next fall. Tough to say whether it will pass though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on September 21, 2011, 01:49:05 AM
As the article suggests, McKenna's lead is at least partially due to the higher name recognition that comes with being in statewide office.  But I'm under no illusions that it will be a tough race.  

Sketchy poll and small subsample, but the fact that Inslee leads by only 1% among those who know him, isn't good news -- unless, I guess, his former Eastern Washington constituents remember him just as well as his new ones.  If he's only leading by 1% among people who can identify the congressman in liberal WA-1, that's a bad place to be.

Also, as overjoyed as I'd be, there's no way gay marriage leads by that margin, and that's a weirdly poor result for pot considering the other findings.

One interesting piece of poll data is that Inslee leads McKenna in King County 45-39.  If that is true Inslee has a lot of work to do.  There has been some concern in Democratic circles that Inslee (who is not a statewide official and is mostly unconnected to King County) would not do as well there as he should against McKenna (who is both a statewide official and from King County).  Conventional wisdom holds that the Republican candidate needs to get at least 40% in King County to even have a chance of winning statewide, probably more like 42% to have a solid shot.  This poll suggests McKenna is close.

That said, if proper attention is paid I see no reason why Inslee could not turn out the King County base.  He's a little dull but perfectly fine on the issues.  And while voters across the state are evenly split on Obama's health care plan, I bet that is an issue Inslee can turn against McKenna in King.  The question is if McKenna can peel off enough votes in the suburban areas to counteract the tidal wave Inslee should have coming out of Seattle.

Had Dow Constantine been the nominee he would have had a lockdown on the base, but he doesn't have Inslee's connections around other parts of the state.  We'll see if that pays off.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on September 21, 2011, 02:24:11 AM
Sen. Cantwell comes off as a hero in the new Ron Suskind book "Confidence Men":

Quote
Summers’s rule for Geithner, “don’t admit to mistakes,” was the first of two. The other rule, in answering questions, was “don’t make policy.” Cantwell’s goal was to undercut the latter proviso. She was displeased, as were several Democratic leaders, with the choice of Geithner and Summers. “The best tactic was to get them to say [in confirmation hearings] what they were willing to support, so that we could hold their feet to the fire [later],” she said, adding that she expected Geithner and Summers eventually to cave in to Wall Street, at which point she could start “raising hell about their lack of backbone.”

Quote
“In concert with a cadre of progressives, Cantwell began her campaign to use the confirmation hearings to shape financial reform.  When her turn came around, she grilled Geithner on exactly what he was planning to do to re-regulate the financial industry, pressing him for specifics that left other committee members checking their briefing materials.”

Quote
“If Gensler wanted his job, Cantwell made clear, he’s have to speak loudly and clearly.  He said, in endless hearings before the Senate Finance Committee that mistakes were made at the end of the Clinton era, something Summers and Geithner would never say.

He said that regulating the $600 trillion derivatives markets, where one $50 tank of gas supports $5,000 in derivatives trades, is the most important thing that can be done in this period to change a ‘Wall Street culture that has permeated’ the economic life of the country’.”

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2011/09/20/cantwell-hero-in-book-on-obama-heavies/ (http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2011/09/20/cantwell-hero-in-book-on-obama-heavies/)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 21, 2011, 10:14:56 PM
Cantwell is one of the Senate's biggest policy wonks. Good to see her doing work.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 26, 2011, 04:51:01 PM
McKenna leading 44-38 according to SUSA.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on September 26, 2011, 08:10:05 PM
In the first poll I've seen for the WA's AG race, King 5/SUSA shows Bob Ferguson (D) leading Reagan Dunn (R) 39%-34%.

http://www.nwcn.com/home/?fId=130603548&fPath=/news/local&fDomain=10212 (http://www.nwcn.com/home/?fId=130603548&fPath=/news/local&fDomain=10212)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on September 30, 2011, 07:55:13 PM
State legislator Michael Baumgartner (R-Spokane) will run for U.S. Senate against Maria Cantwell --

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2011/sep/30/baumgartner-run-cantwells-senate-seat/ (http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2011/sep/30/baumgartner-run-cantwells-senate-seat/)

http://publicola.com/2011/09/30/freshman-state-senator-to-run-against-cantwell/ (http://publicola.com/2011/09/30/freshman-state-senator-to-run-against-cantwell/)


Obviously, if this is the best the WA GOP has, Cantwell will win easily.  Baumgartner did concede that "we'd need to build a base of support over here in Seattle."  He will fail.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 02, 2011, 10:29:51 PM
Is anyone here planning on participating in the presidential caucuses, either on March 3 (Republican) or April 15 (Democratic)? I've been heavily thinking about attending the Republican one, as the Democratic caucus would be pointless except maybe to cast a protest vote, plus I've never been to a caucus before.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 03, 2011, 12:47:38 AM
^ They're not that interesting, and you will probably required to sign something saying you're a member of that party. Maybe you can go to both! ;D

If you go to a GOP caucus in a college town, be prepared for lots of Ron Paul fans. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 03, 2011, 08:58:02 PM
^ They're not that interesting, and you will probably required to sign something saying you're a member of that party. Maybe you can go to both! ;D

I don't mind. I already get a ton of spam email from both parties anyway only because I've emailed them about caucus results before.

Quote
If you go to a GOP caucus in a college town, be prepared for lots of Ron Paul fans. :P

Don't worry; I'll troll them to the best of my ability. I can adopt a Santorum-supporting persona pretty easily. ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 05, 2011, 11:36:33 PM
I-1125 - No, obviously
I-1163 - Yes; these people should be trained
I-1183 - No, reduces liquor availability and just makes Costco richer
SJR-8205 - I vote no because Mike Carrell sponsored the bill
SJR 8206 - My understanding is that this requires the state to put more money in the rainy day account than it currently does. The liberals oppose it because they'd prefer the money to be spent right away. I voted no.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on October 06, 2011, 01:58:39 AM
I-1125: NO!
I-1163: Yes (Although on this one I could be persuaded to go either way)
I-1183: No (can we stop with the liquor privatization measures, PLEASE?)
SJR-8205: Yes
SJR 8206: No (honestly we shouldn't further reduce our ability to use funds)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 06, 2011, 02:19:24 AM
Anybody think that Inslee could run on Single Payer Healthcare?

No. I suspect that would be political suicide, and even if it weren't, it seems like a somewhat strange thing to run for Governor on.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 06, 2011, 02:54:07 AM
I'm not sure what you're talking about. ???


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on October 06, 2011, 03:12:15 AM
Do you mean Kentucky, Montana, or some bizarre combination of both?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 06, 2011, 07:03:48 AM
We have the upper ground on healthcare in this race... no reason to stick your neck out for something else that won't be passed in our state anytime soon.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on October 06, 2011, 10:32:44 AM
I'm not sure what you're talking about. ???

http://thinkprogress.org/health/2011/09/29/332031/montana-governor-waiver-for-single-payer/

Quote
As ThinkProgress previously reported, Vermont Gov. Peter Shumlin (D) made history earlier this year when he signed into law legislation that would make his state the first state to lay the groundwork for a single payer health care system. In order to enact this system, the state needs a waiver from the federal health care law, which it will be able to obtain in 2017. Rep. Peter Welch (D-VT) has introduced legislation to move the waiver date up to 2014, an idea President Obama has endorsed.

Now, another governor is looking to take advantage of flexibility in Obama’s health care law in order to establish a single payer system. Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D-MT) announced yesterday that he will be seeking a waiver to set up his own universal health care system in his state modeled after the single payer Canadian health care system that began in the province of Saskatchewan:

Kind of surprised Montana would elect a governor like that given its state legislature is predominantly Republican. I've always considered Montana to be Idaho-lite.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 06, 2011, 11:58:53 AM
I think that's Schweitzer positioning himself to run for President someday.

Also, the Montana State House and Senate were actually pretty evenly divided before 2010.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 07, 2011, 01:31:27 AM
Re: initiatives, etc.

I'll consider voting aye on 1163. I'm voting nay on the rest.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 07, 2011, 02:55:26 PM
Are you guys serious about voting against SJR-8205?  It's the most innocuous technical fix I've ever seen :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 07, 2011, 06:04:08 PM
It's Mike Carrell's bill. I'm not going to vote for it.

Not sure why bgwah isn't going to though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 08, 2011, 04:42:18 PM
I'll think about the SJRs. I haven't read about them much yet.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on October 08, 2011, 09:50:19 PM
Who are the rumored Republicans likely to run for the new WA-10?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 08, 2011, 09:56:54 PM
Who are the rumored Republicans likely to run for the new WA-10?
Im not sure, but once we find out where the new district will be (which is going to be shortly), I'm sure someone will announce.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 09, 2011, 12:14:00 AM
If it ends up being the MM district in South King County, it'll be some sacrificial lamb who will be lucky to hit 30%. That is, if they make it past the top two primary, which they very well may not depending on how many Democrats run. I suspect a ton would though (safe open seats tend to have that happen) so a Republican could probably slip through the primary.

If it's a South Sound district, I don't know.

If it's Slade Gorton's NW WA district (it won't be), it will be John Koster. The Republicans seem to be trying very hard to give that dimwit a seat.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on October 09, 2011, 02:27:58 AM
wow, I just realized how much I-1125 would screw over light rail..


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 09, 2011, 02:35:25 AM
wow, I just realized how much I-1125 would screw over light rail..

I just find it to be an odd initiative in general. If it passes, it will be due to non-Seattle area votes, despite the fact that it effects us (& Clark County) the most.

King County was playing nice and decided to pay for it a lot of it via tolls that won't effect the rest of the state much at all. But if conservatives in the rest of the state really want help pay for more of it, go ahead and vote for the initiative... These people would have to be really stupid if they think 520 just won't get rebuilt or something.

And re: light rail, just another reason Kemper Freeman is the scum of the earth. It's very unsettling to think one of his Bellevue cronies is going to be Governor soon. This is a good example of what's wrong with Tim Eyman. His initiatives are about tricking and deceiving the voters into doing the bidding of his special interests. Eyman and his supporters are enemies of democracy.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Franzl on October 09, 2011, 07:15:50 AM
What are arguments against something as basic and freedom-loving as privatization of liquor?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 09, 2011, 10:44:31 AM
What are arguments against something as basic and freedom-loving as privatization of liquor?

This initiative actually reduces the availability of liquor in the state. It's very restrictive about where it can be sold (only very big stores aka the people funding this initiative).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Franzl on October 09, 2011, 11:16:59 AM
What are arguments against something as basic and freedom-loving as privatization of liquor?

This initiative actually reduces the availability of liquor in the state. It's very restrictive about where it can be sold (only very big stores aka the people funding this initiative).

Ah, gotcha. Thought it was about true liquor freedom :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on October 09, 2011, 01:08:52 PM
What are arguments against something as basic and freedom-loving as privatization of liquor?

This initiative actually reduces the availability of liquor in the state. It's very restrictive about where it can be sold (only very big stores aka the people funding this initiative).

Ah, gotcha. Thought it was about true liquor freedom :)

Also the state is so cash-stipped that taking away another source of revenue would be more or less criminal (or at least in my mind it is).  We live in a state that like Colorado and California has been more or less frozen by public initiatives that tie the hands of the legislature.

On another note it seems that the 'Occupy Seattle' protests have gathered some steam..


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 09, 2011, 02:34:06 PM
I'm starting to think I-1163 may not pass. Public perception of it this time around seems to be very different from '08.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 10, 2011, 01:58:23 PM
Former Governor Al Rosellini has passed away. He was 101. :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 10, 2011, 02:10:49 PM
:(

I think he deserves his own thread. He was the oldest Governor ever, after all.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on October 10, 2011, 10:38:03 PM
wow. A great man. RIP.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on October 11, 2011, 01:50:31 AM
A great politician and public servant who did so much for our state.  May "The Gov" RIP.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on October 22, 2011, 03:25:59 AM
Quote
Democratic state Sen. Scott White was found dead in his hotel room at the Suncadia Resort outside Cle Elum on Friday. He was 41.

KOMO-TV reports the “medical examiner has not determined the cause of death, but initial signs indicated to a sudden heart attack.”

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2011/10/21/state-sen-scott-white-found-dead/ (http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2011/10/21/state-sen-scott-white-found-dead/)

:(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 22, 2011, 04:37:10 PM
Quote
Democratic state Sen. Scott White was found dead in his hotel room at the Suncadia Resort outside Cle Elum on Friday. He was 41.

KOMO-TV reports the “medical examiner has not determined the cause of death, but initial signs indicated to a sudden heart attack.”

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2011/10/21/state-sen-scott-white-found-dead/ (http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2011/10/21/state-sen-scott-white-found-dead/)

:(
It is quite sad! =(
And he had so much potential.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 23, 2011, 05:28:57 PM
Must...not...make...Death Note reference.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on October 24, 2011, 06:46:21 PM
Good news (of sorts) for those who care about transportation. (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2016596951__a_new_elway_poll.html) 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on October 25, 2011, 03:05:22 AM
Good news (of sorts) for those who care about transportation. (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2016596951__a_new_elway_poll.html) 

Quote
"After gaining ground over the summer, support for I-1125 dropped from 56 percent in September to 43 percent last week," pollster Stuart Elway wrote. "At the same time, opposition grew from 25 percent to 36 percent. The proportion of undecided voters has remained relatively steady all year at around 20 percent."

I-1125 would require the Legislature to approve tolls instead of the state Transportation Commission; ban variable-rate tolls, which charge more during peak driving times, and mandate that tolls only go toward work on the road being tolled.

I think 36% opposition is too weak to prevent it from passing.

Guess we'll find out soon. When is the election anyway? Next week or the week after?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on October 25, 2011, 11:01:08 PM
Good news (of sorts) for those who care about transportation. (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2016596951__a_new_elway_poll.html)  

Quote
"After gaining ground over the summer, support for I-1125 dropped from 56 percent in September to 43 percent last week," pollster Stuart Elway wrote. "At the same time, opposition grew from 25 percent to 36 percent. The proportion of undecided voters has remained relatively steady all year at around 20 percent."

I-1125 would require the Legislature to approve tolls instead of the state Transportation Commission; ban variable-rate tolls, which charge more during peak driving times, and mandate that tolls only go toward work on the road being tolled.

I think 36% opposition is too weak to prevent it from passing.

Guess we'll find out soon. When is the election anyway? Next week or the week after?

November 8, according to the WA SOS 2011 election calendar (http://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/calendar_list.aspx).  

So the week after. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 28, 2011, 11:18:44 PM
Just wondering, why the hell don't we have anyone to counteract Tim Eyman up here? 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 28, 2011, 11:31:10 PM
An "anti-Tim Eyman" would require an "anti-Kemper Freeman".


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 30, 2011, 08:58:48 PM
Interesting bit of microtargetting detail:  The No on I-1183 people (liquor privatization) are running Internet ads encouraging voters to "Stand with Democrats in voting against I-1183."  It has a picture of Gregoire in it.  Weird choice.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 30, 2011, 09:14:39 PM
Interesting bit of microtargetting detail:  The No on I-1183 people (liquor privatization) are running Internet ads encouraging voters to "Stand with Democrats in voting against I-1183."  It has a picture of Gregoire in it.  Weird choice.

And Dow Constantine! I've been getting it a lot. It's better than the "Chris Christie Stands with Mitt" ad I was getting forever. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on October 31, 2011, 02:15:09 AM
The ad's i'm getting have no pictures in them at all!?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 31, 2011, 12:40:47 PM
New Washington Poll out.  This one is actually big, a registered voter sample of near 1,000 registered voters conducted throughout this month.  Full poll (http://www.washingtonpoll.org/results/103111.pdf).

tl;dr summary:  Liquor leads, Eyman is slipping, Inslee is struggling, state voters don't like the GOP presidential candidates, marijuana is 50/50, gay marriage would be easily sustained at the ballot box.

I-1183 (Liquor privatization)
Yes 50%
No 43%

I-1183 does slightly better among right-leaners than left-leaners, but otherwise the demography is very consistent.

I-1125 (Eyman's transit thing)
Yes 41%
No 40%

Democrats don't like it; Republicans do.  Seems to be showing some significant weakness outside of the Puget Sound metro.  The measure seems to be degrading in popularity as time goes along, in this poll and others.

Governor
McKenna (R) 44%
Inslee (D) 38%

U.S. President
Obama (D) 54%
Perry (R) 41%

Obama (D) 50%
Romney (R) 41%

Favorables
Obama: 52-43
Gregoire: 44-50
State legislature: 32-46 (that's oddly high?)
U.S. Congress: 14-76
Rob McKenna: 47-20
Maria Cantwell: 53-34
Jay Inslee: 33-17
Mitt Romney: 36-42
Rick Perry: 21-51

Issue approval
Healthcare reform: 37-47
DADT repeal: 64-24
Legalization/regulation of marijuana: 48-42

Theoretical referendum if state legislature passes Gay Marriage
Approve 55%
Reject 38%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 31, 2011, 06:47:47 PM
Certainly some surprising stuff! This is the second poll showing a sizeable passing of a gay marriage law. I'd like to see PPP poll WA and ask that and it'd be great if that could get on teh ballot here.

Still seems to me no one knows who Inslee is, while Gregoire's numbers have really rebounded.

Cantwell seems to be cruising along nicely.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Marston on October 31, 2011, 07:16:09 PM
Didn't Washington's "Everything But Marriage" referendum pass rather narrowly back in 09?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 31, 2011, 07:17:21 PM
Didn't Washington's "Everything But Marriage" referendum pass rather narrowly back in 09?

Yes. I remain skeptical that gay marriage could actually pass if put to a vote except maybe in a highly Democratic year (2008?). There seems to usually be some sort of gay-related Bradley effect that occurs in polls, especially this far out from any potential vote.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on October 31, 2011, 07:47:00 PM
McKenna's 6% lead on Inslee is very consistent with what we have seen from other polls.  50% of the people in this poll have no idea who Inslee is vs. only 33% for McKenna, so he has room to grow.  But McKenna has a good favorability rating and definitely came into the race in a stronger position.  He will be tough to beat.

Cantwell will be fine but we knew that already.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on October 31, 2011, 09:54:20 PM
I wonder how would that marijuana legalization vote would go.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on October 31, 2011, 10:22:29 PM
Didn't Washington's "Everything But Marriage" referendum pass rather narrowly back in 09?

Yes. I remain skeptical that gay marriage could actually pass if put to a vote except maybe in a highly Democratic year (2008?). There seems to usually be some sort of gay-related Bradley effect that occurs in polls, especially this far out from any potential vote.

Yes but 2009 was a horrible year for such a measure; democrats and liberals don't have the same drive to vote on off-years as Republicans. I am willing to bet that it would have passed by a larger margin in 2010. Also we need to remember that the right was able to define the referendum in 2009 as more or less a vote on gay marriage.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 31, 2011, 11:06:07 PM
What would an approve/reject map look for a vote on gay marriage? All the Puget Sound counties approving it minus Pierce? I think Mason county would probably approve it this time around.  Basically identical to the "Everything but Marriage" map?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on October 31, 2011, 11:23:01 PM
What would an approve/reject map look for a vote on gay marriage? All the Puget Sound counties approving it minus Pierce? I think Mason county would probably approve it this time around.  Basically identical to the "Everything but Marriage" map?

I imagine it would very narrowly pass, with the following counties voting in favor of passing the measure:
- King
- San Juan
- Jefferson
- Thurston
- Snohomish
- Whatcom
- Grays Harbor
- Pacific
- Island

Although I am very unsure about those last three...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 31, 2011, 11:52:35 PM
I don't see any reason the map wouldn't be similar to R-71.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 01, 2011, 06:51:47 PM
Didn't Washington's "Everything But Marriage" referendum pass rather narrowly back in 09?

Yes. I remain skeptical that gay marriage could actually pass if put to a vote except maybe in a highly Democratic year (2008?). There seems to usually be some sort of gay-related Bradley effect that occurs in polls, especially this far out from any potential vote.

We didn't see that with Referendum 71, although there were a ton of people who supported "equal recognition but not marriage" and then started opposing it once the referendum was forwarded.  There may be a Bradley Effect for gay marriage, but the polls here have been pretty consistent.  None have even been within single digits.  It just seems like registered voters is a much better group for gays than 2009 voters, which is not that surprising.

I also think the map would look really similar to R-71, which went this way:

()

I'm not convinced that gay marriage benefits that much from a highly Democratic year.  I just don't think that we're apt to see big partisanship turnout variances in Presidential years with mail voting.  I don't think many swing voters are going to vote against gay marriage because they flipped from Obama in 2008 to the GOP in 2012.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 02, 2011, 02:39:46 PM
Darcy Burner is running in WA-1.

lol.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 02, 2011, 02:53:01 PM
Her campaign released a poll that has her ahead in the primary 47 to 12 to things less than 12.

I'd say there's roughly an 80% chance she'll win the whole thing.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 02, 2011, 03:33:38 PM
Why? We actually have better choices now!

If I end up in the 1st, I'll probably be voting for Liias.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 02, 2011, 03:35:26 PM
She has the name rec and the money. There's no reason to think she won't win. If she only had one major challenger then they might have a chance of knocking her off, but with the rest of the field split six ways? Pretty damn difficult.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 02, 2011, 03:37:39 PM
Since I don't think these were ever posted, here's the end of Q3 fundraising numbers for WA-01:

Andrew Hughes - 142 raised, 57 CoH
Darshan Rauniyar - 110 raised, 100 CoH
Laura Ruderman - 81 raised, 149 CoH
Roger Goodman - 76 raised, 60 CoH
Steve Hobbs - 54 raised, 49 CoH
Marko Liias - 49 raised, 25 CoH

Only Rauniyar and Ruderman are running legitimate campaigns IMO.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 02, 2011, 03:40:40 PM
She has the name rec and the money. There's no reason to think she won't win. If she only had one major challenger then they might have a chance of knocking her off, but with the rest of the field split six ways? Pretty damn difficult.

Well I've voted for her before, I guess. She's pretty left-wing at least.

I've never even heard of Rauniyar.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 02, 2011, 03:43:01 PM
Of course the wildcard in this all is whether DelBene gets in and writes herself a $2 million check on day one. Then Burner is in serious trouble.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 02, 2011, 03:44:32 PM
I have a bad feeling Sammamish will be left in the 8th district, though. :(

In which case I'll probably vote for David Spring or whatever joke candidate is put up against the 8th Reich.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 02, 2011, 10:13:42 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2016669442_eymans_er_mitchells_message_to.html

lol


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on November 02, 2011, 10:21:45 PM
Did they finally draw the maps for congressional district? I really hope they made the I-90 district democratic if there is one.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 02, 2011, 10:24:29 PM
Did they finally draw the maps for congressional district? I really hope they made the I-90 district democratic if there is one.

Heh.

They aren't going to be done until after Christmas.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 02, 2011, 11:18:26 PM
Did they finally draw the maps for congressional district? I really hope they made the I-90 district democratic if there is one.

The point of an I-90 district is to make Reichert a safe district, so that's not gonna happen.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on November 03, 2011, 02:16:47 AM
Did they finally draw the maps for congressional district? I really hope they made the I-90 district democratic if there is one.

The point of an I-90 district is to make Reichert a safe district, so that's not gonna happen.
I thought I-90 district would be like 55% dem?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 03, 2011, 11:25:07 AM
Did they finally draw the maps for congressional district? I really hope they made the I-90 district democratic if there is one.

The point of an I-90 district is to make Reichert a safe district, so that's not gonna happen.
I thought I-90 district would be like 55% dem?

No. Much more likely it would be somewhere around 55% Republican. You are basically blending the moderate areas of King county with Kittitas and maybe Chelan counties (it depends on exactly how they split it).

By the way what's everyone's thoughts on Ron Sims? Has he come back to run for Seattle Mayor or what? I was at a forum last night with Sims and he seemed to hint at a run.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 03, 2011, 02:39:40 PM
Did they finally draw the maps for congressional district? I really hope they made the I-90 district democratic if there is one.

The point of an I-90 district is to make Reichert a safe district, so that's not gonna happen.
I thought I-90 district would be like 55% dem?

No. Much more likely it would be somewhere around 55% Republican. You are basically blending the moderate areas of King county with Kittitas and maybe Chelan counties (it depends on exactly how they split it).

By the way what's everyone's thoughts on Ron Sims? Has he come back to run for Seattle Mayor or what? I was at a forum last night with Sims and he seemed to hint at a run.

Totally random speculation on my part, but if they did create the majority-minority district, Sims could probably win it fairly easily. Though I think he said he didn't like living in DC, so who knows...

Googling "Ron Sims mayor" yields numerous results, though. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 03, 2011, 07:50:35 PM
The state wants to/is going to investigate Aaron Reardon...... Any thoughts?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 03, 2011, 07:55:38 PM
The timing seems... odd... but the Prosecuting Attorney in Snohomish is a Democrat so I can't claim an obvious partisan motivation.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 03, 2011, 07:56:28 PM
The state wants to/is going to investigate Aaron Reardon...... Any thoughts?

Already voted for him. I'm kinda suspicious that they waited until five days before the election to announce this. I'm not a big Roe fan though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 03, 2011, 08:43:25 PM
This won't necessarily hurt Reardon. The average voter will realize the political nature of it right before an election.

Hope's internals must suggest he's losing.

And even though nobody replied to it, I'm kind of wondering if Mitchell's desperation means Hague is leading.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 04, 2011, 03:16:02 AM
Oh nevermind, looks like that race is just plain nasty: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2016683462_mitchellad04m.html

"He is an agent for a vicious murderer and seems indifferent to my family's pain and anguish."


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on November 04, 2011, 09:28:09 PM
http://www.kplu.org/post/seattle-think-tank-floats-state-capital-gains-tax

So how does raising taxes work in Washington now after the supermajority ballot measure:

1. A 2/3 legislative vote and it's enacted
2. A 2/3 legislative vote and a referendum affirming the increase
3. A legislative referral to the ballot (via a simple majority legislative vote) to approve the increase
4. A legislative referral to the ballot (via a 2/3 legislative vote) to approve the increase

?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 05, 2011, 12:51:36 PM
I think the 2009 initiative made it so a 2/3 legislative majority or voter approval is required, but not both.

The legislature can modify an initiative after two years. That's how they passed the candy tax. But Tim Eyman has no problem proposing the same initiative every two years, and in fact probably likes not having to come up with new ideas... :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on November 05, 2011, 01:22:43 PM
Got it. These supermajority requirements are crazy. I bet they look at how it's worked out for Republicans in California (and the U.S. Senate with the filibuster) and just drool.

It's a shame there are so many people who want to make pointless gridlock inherent in the system :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 07, 2011, 06:42:39 PM
Anyone want to post predictions for tomorrow?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 07, 2011, 07:04:55 PM
I'll throw some out...

NOTE: You are not allowed to make fun of my probably-incorrect predictions tomorrow unless you also post predictions. :P

I-1125: 52-48 No
I-1183: 54-46 Yes

I'm not gonna do numbers for local races:

Snoho Exec: Reardon narrowly wins, by less than he did in the primary
Kingco #6: It will be close, and I think it's a toss-up... but I want Mitchell to win, so I'll say  he wins narrowly (good enough tie-breaker for me :P)
Seattle: All incumbents win except Godden, who will narrowly lose to Forch. (I haven't followed this race or seen polling, complete guess!)
4th LD: The faithless elector loses.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 07, 2011, 08:50:49 PM
Well, mine will probably be just as wildly off as yours (we really don't have any polls to work with do we?):

I-1125: 53-47 NO
I-1163: 58-42 NO
I-1183: 54-46 NO

I feel like the electorate is going to be ready to vote down almost anything they can, also Costco really screwed up I-1183, the debate morphed to become Costco vs. the State.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 07, 2011, 10:06:42 PM
Might as well... :P

I-1125: 53-47 No (might be wishful thinking, but Eyman's crap has been voted down a lot lately)
I-1163: 54-46 Yes (???)
I-1183: 52-48 Yes (Total guess, but I have a feeling it will pass)

Snohomish County Executive: I think Rearden will win narrowly, but it would surprise me if Mike Hope pulled off the upset. He's fairly well-liked for a Republican around here, I have no idea how the potential investigation of Rearden affects things though I can't imagine it helping him, and, at least as of now, the rural and exurban areas are turning out more heavily than the Everett/Lynnwood area. I'll say 51-49 Rearden.

I'm sure I'll miss on some if these. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 07, 2011, 10:21:36 PM
While no one here probably cares.... I'm guessing (and hoping!) that all the Seattle School Board loses, with exception of Harium Martin-Morris. I think Peter Maier and Steve Sundquist are probably goners. Sherry Carr less so and Martin-Morris the least.

I-1125: 52-48  No
I-1163 - 55-45 No (Although that's just a pure guess)
I-1183 - 51-49 Yes

I'd also like to see Port of Seattle commisioner Bill Bryant gone.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 07, 2011, 10:24:41 PM
Why do you guys think 1163 will fail? I wouldn't be surprised to see it get something like 59-41 yes, maybe even a lot higher for yes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 07, 2011, 10:30:05 PM
Why do you guys think 1163 will fail? I wouldn't be surprised to see it get something like 59-41 yes, maybe even a lot higher for yes.

I think this is simply the wrong year for that specific initiative. Anything that smacks of taking revenues from the state or increasing taxes just doesn't seem to have that much appeal at the moment, honestly I voted against it even though I would probably have gone with the yes camp if state coffers weren't so terrifyingly low.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 07, 2011, 10:35:43 PM
I think Eyman will fail and SEIU and Costco will pass narrowly (less than 10% margin).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 08, 2011, 01:15:31 PM
Based on the polling (internal and otherwise) it's hard for me to see I-1163 failing, although those newspaper endorsements were nasty.

Here are my guesstimates:

I-1125: 50.5% No
I-1163: 58.7% Yes
I-1183: 52.5% Yes

Edit: Publicola thinks similarly to us (http://publicola.com/2011/11/08/our-election-predictions-2/), for the most part.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 08, 2011, 11:30:41 PM
Liquor is easily passing. I guess I win that one since I predicted the highest yes percent. ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 08, 2011, 11:50:39 PM
Local races:

Hague winning 54-46... Disappointing, but I had a feeling this might happen. :(

Reardon easily winning 57-43. I thought he would win but the margin is surprising!

In Bellevue, both pro-transit incumbents are winning re-election to the city council by two-to-one margins. It's a close battle for the open seat (about 100 vote margin).

Jean Godden has defeated Forch 54-46. The rest of the incumbents are above 60%, with Burgess over 80% (!).

Looks like Toby Nixon found his way onto the Kirkland City Council now... Slowly crawling his way back up the elected office ladder...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 08, 2011, 11:56:05 PM
Seattle car tabe failed pretty badly.

Looks like I-1183 surpassed everyone's expectations....again. 66% of the vote. wow.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 09, 2011, 01:04:01 AM
I just removed my prediction since it was so embarrassing.  lol


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 09, 2011, 02:03:01 AM
I do not understand why areas are voting for and against the eyeman initiative... Adams county is more or less tied right now while Clark is almost 60% in favor. Also wtf Garfield?

Any theories?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 09, 2011, 03:24:32 AM
I do not understand why areas are voting for and against the eyeman initiative... Adams county is more or less tied right now while Clark is almost 60% in favor. Also wtf Garfield?

Any theories?

Southwestern WA (Clark, Cowlitz, Skamania area) seems to be generally rather anti-tax/pro-Eyman relative to what you'd think on initatives. I have no idea about Garfield other than perhaps WSU influence?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 09, 2011, 03:40:04 AM
Whitman County tends to be rather pro-tax and anti-Eyman. Just look at past initiatives and you'll frequently find Whitman in the Top 5 pro-tax counties. And yes, it's almost certainly because the county is very dependent on a state institution. Once we get precinct results perhaps I can give a better answer. I'm not sure about Garfield County. It has odd voting patterns on initiatives.

As for Clark, the projects this would have effected most are the floating bridges over Lake Washington and the Columbia River crossing from Vancouver to Portland. Perhaps commuters in Clark County don't like the idea of variable tolling.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 09, 2011, 03:56:22 AM
Doug Ericksen lost the race for Whatcom County Executive. Hah hah! Looks likes the ultra-liberal areas of Bellingham united with right-wing Lynden to elect Jack Louws. It would be a funny map, maybe... (hint hint, Realistic! though Louws won most precincts anyway, it looks like)

Linville is also leading Pike 51-49 for Mayor of Bellingham.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 09, 2011, 04:03:04 AM
Doug Ericksen lost the race for Whatcom County Executive. Hah hah! Looks likes the ultra-liberal areas of Bellingham united with right-wing Lynden to elect Jack Louws.

Guilty as charged!  ;D  I'm not surprised, everyone down here hates Erickson. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on November 09, 2011, 04:51:47 AM
Well the good guys won on I-1125. Garfield county is surprising. I think the only explanation I have is under 1000 turnout and the fact that surrounding counties broke 45/55 so maybe it's just an oddball because of the turnout. Spokane county disappointed me, I thought it would vote no and move into solid D area soon. My home county(Benton) voted over 40% for no, not as embarrassing as it usually is. I am surprised that this vote was less partisan than it should have been.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 09, 2011, 02:18:37 PM
What makes you think Spokane County will become "solid D" soon? I haven't gotten that impression at all.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on November 09, 2011, 03:08:23 PM
What makes you think Spokane County will become "solid D" soon? I haven't gotten that impression at all.
It's too big to be Republican.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 09, 2011, 03:45:22 PM
What makes you think Spokane County will become "solid D" soon? I haven't gotten that impression at all.
It's too big to be Republican.

Eh, it's a pretty suburban area, the growth is in the most Republican areas, and its voters tend to have low education rates.  None of this screams "upcoming D trend" to me.

Spokane has a very limited core of truly liberal areas.  Pretty much just south of downtown (Cliff-Cannon/Manito Park/Browns Addition)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 09, 2011, 05:48:12 PM
(hint hint, Realistic! though Louws won most precincts anyway, it looks like)

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_09_11_11_5_47_49.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 09, 2011, 06:55:43 PM
Haha, wonderful.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 09, 2011, 06:58:41 PM
lol. So weird to see Lynden voting with Bellingham.....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on November 09, 2011, 08:24:20 PM
I didn't expect that type of margin of victory for the liquor privatization initiative. I was thinking more along a 3-5% win. I won't be surprised if a similar proposal comes down here in Oregon though our liquor laws aren't identical.

Also it looks like gay marriage won't be on our 2012 ballot D:

http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/11/basic_rights_oregon_will_not_p.html

Quote
After a three-year campaign to build support for legalizing same-sex marriage, Oregon's largest gay rights group has decided against putting the issue up for a vote in 2012.

Feedback from an online survey of over 1,000 people, door-to-door canvassing, community meetings and two statewide television advertising campaigns overwhelmingly say, "we must allow our education work to continue," Basic Rights Oregon announced Wednesday.

"As far as we have come, which as been significant, we don't yet have the kind of consensus that would indicate a reasonable expectation of success," said Jeana Frazzini, executive director.

Oregonians now appear about evenly divided on a proposed ballot initiative to legalize gay marriage and to overturn the constitutional ban against same-sex marriage approved by voters in 2004, Frazzini said.

The weak economy and high rates of unemployment and home foreclosures also create a tough climate for a political campaign over a social issue, she said.

Basic Rights members favor waiting at least until the next opportunity for an initiative ballot in 2014 before plunging into a politically difficult campaign that would cost $5 million to $10 million, she said.

I wonder how this issue will play out in Washington in 2012.

Here's to hoping at least marijuana legalization initiatives make both state ballots.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 09, 2011, 08:27:39 PM
Oh, not on the ballot in Oregon! You made me sad for a second there... :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 09, 2011, 09:04:32 PM
That's kind of troubling for WA if they're basing that on internal polling instead of that ridiculous crap (internet poll?)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 10, 2011, 02:50:04 AM
Watch the news for something gay marriage-y on Monday


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 10, 2011, 02:55:35 AM
Watch the news for something gay marriage-y on Monday

Don't be so mysterious. Just tell us.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 10, 2011, 06:58:04 AM
Alcon and I are getting married.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 10, 2011, 03:04:33 PM
Watch the news for something gay marriage-y on Monday

Don't be so mysterious. Just tell us.

I told you all I know :P  I just assume it's the official announcement.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 10, 2011, 08:09:21 PM
Linville might actually win.  Wow!  


The Sheriff's race down here was somewhat painful, yet entertaining to watch at the same time.  Basically the incumbant's opposition group had a facebook page where they would cut-and-paste pictures of Bill Elfo's head into silly pictures, than go on a rant about how he's some kind of "fachizt, fear mongering pig!!1!1" or something.  :P   lololol  It's scary to think people are dumb enough to do that kind of crap. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 12, 2011, 01:17:25 AM
Anyways, here's the mayoral race for Bellingham by precinct/voting district.  Green is for Pike, red is for Linville, and yellow means it's tied. 

()


BTW this race is still too close to call. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 12, 2011, 02:18:59 AM
That's a pretty map! So perfectly polarized.

I doubt Pike will win.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on November 12, 2011, 02:20:31 AM
Both of them are democrats right?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 12, 2011, 02:20:57 AM
Yes. Linville is more moderate, though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on November 12, 2011, 05:46:45 AM
Yes. Linville is more moderate, though.
I was scared for a second that one of them was Republican, I wasn't sure if Bellingham was as liberal as Seattle. Btw does anybody know why does Franklin County not vote more left with majority-minority since 2010 census?
Looks like they updated I-1125 maps, and Spokane voted no by a slight margin. Columbia and Adams also flipped. I think Spokane will vote for Obama by 55% or more in 2012.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on November 12, 2011, 06:09:28 AM
Very low turnout among Hispanics.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 12, 2011, 11:12:25 AM
Yes. Linville is more moderate, though.
I think Spokane will vote for Obama by 55% or more in 2012.
The only way I see that happening is if the Republican nominee is Bachmann, or another rightwing candidate. Romney has a very high chance of winning Spokane county.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 12, 2011, 03:03:08 PM
Yes. Linville is more moderate, though.
I think Spokane will vote for Obama by 55% or more in 2012.
The only way I see that happening is if the Republican nominee is Bachmann, or another rightwing candidate. Romney has a very high chance of winning Spokane county.


Winning Spokane and winning Spokane County are two very different things. Spokane usually votes for the Democrats (though not like Seattle does...more like Everett does) and has some very Democratic areas, but the suburbs (Spokane Valley and eastward), outskirts, and rural areas of the county vote Republican in larger numbers and usually drown it out. I think Cheney is the only other area in the county that leans Dem, but it's too small to really matter.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 12, 2011, 03:30:02 PM
Oh I know, I thought he was talking about Spokane county. What percentage did Spokane vote for Obama in 2008.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 12, 2011, 03:56:56 PM
Oh I know, I thought he was talking about Spokane county. What percentage did Spokane vote for Obama in 2008.

2008 Spokane County Breakdown:
Spokane City: 55.87%-40.98% Obama (D +13,904)
Cheney: 56.79%-39.93% Obama (D +560)
Millwood: 50.97%-44.73% Obama (D +58)

Unincorporated Spokane County: 57.30%-39.84% McCain (R +12,948)
Spokane Valley: 51.73%-44.81% McCain (R +2,798)
Liberty Lake: 59.26%-38.31% McCain (R +725)
Deer Park: 57.88%-38.46% McCain (R +297)
Medical Lake: 49.74%-46.33% McCain (R +66)
Airway Heights: 51.06%-45.49% McCain (R +58)
Rockford: 60.36%-37.84% McCain (R +50)
Fairfield: 54.72%-43.02% McCain (R +31)
Waverly: 72.41%-24.14% McCain (R +28)
Latah: 58.59%-32.32% McCain (R +26)
Spangle: 54.73%-39.19% McCain (R +23)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on November 12, 2011, 07:01:32 PM
49.5 (R) vs 48.1 (D) in 2008.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 12, 2011, 09:19:59 PM

Not an unusually big swing, though.  It looks to me much more like a reversion to normal patterns after an especially bad year for Democrats in the county (2004.)  Also, Spokane County is relatively downscale and low-education (look at the throttling domestic partnerships got in 2009) and that's not the kind of demographic Obama is holding up well with.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 13, 2011, 09:31:40 PM
Here's a easy-to-use precinct map for Spokane that I made from Dave's redistricting app, in case anyone wants to use it.  :)  I'm going to work on the mayoral map after all the votes are counted fyi.  ;)




()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 14, 2011, 09:10:04 PM
Here's the 2011 Spokane moyoral election by precinct/voting district.

()



There are about 5,000 votes yet to be counted in Spokane county, but I decided to just go with it and make the map already.  I'll edit it later.  ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 14, 2011, 09:24:33 PM
That's quite the turnaround from the primary. What caused Vernon to collapse?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 14, 2011, 09:30:10 PM
That's quite the turnaround from the primary. What caused Vernon to collapse?

I haven't read up on that yet, maybe Alcon or realistic know something. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 14, 2011, 09:44:41 PM
That's quite the turnaround from the primary. What caused Vernon to collapse?

I haven't read up on that yet, maybe Alcon or realistic know something.  

From what I've heard, it has to do with the Otto Zehm case. Apparently a lot of people think Verner didn't handle the case well, and some think she even tried to cover up what the police did in killing him. The cop was just convicted about a week before the election, and the publicity over it didn't do Verner any favors. I'm not 100% sure of all the details, but that's what I've heard from the locals. I do also know that Spokane has a habit of not reelecting mayors. According to my election geek professor, they haven't reelected one since the 1970s.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 15, 2011, 03:01:23 AM
That's quite the turnaround from the primary. What caused Vernon to collapse?

I haven't read up on that yet, maybe Alcon or realistic know something.  

From what I've heard, it has to do with the Otto Zehm case. Apparently a lot of people think Verner didn't handle the case well, and some think she even tried to cover up what the police did in killing him. The cop was just convicted about a week before the election, and the publicity over it didn't do Verner any favors. I'm not 100% sure of all the details, but that's what I've heard from the locals. I do also know that Spokane has a habit of not reelecting mayors. According to my election geek professor, they haven't reelected one since the 1970s.

Also it should be added that there was another killing of a citizen by a cop a year or two ago, which just made the current situation even worse. Finally there was some sort of charges over water..... I don't remember what exactly because I didn't pay much attention to the tv commercials and such (I am still vote out of Olympia)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 17, 2011, 02:43:41 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2016784360_reardon17m.html

Good thing the election was last week!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 17, 2011, 02:53:45 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2016784360_reardon17m.html

Good thing the election was last week!

We still have Constantine to take down McKenna!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on November 17, 2011, 02:59:15 PM
What's the likelihood the Washington AG/SOS positions are won by Democrats in 2012?

The less of a bench they get, the better.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 17, 2011, 03:11:36 PM
I think we have a slight edge in both; AG more than SoS.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on November 19, 2011, 06:14:33 AM
What's up with Inslee supporting the balanced budget amendment on Friday?

The 2/3 supermajority wasn't reached thus the amendment failed and 25 Democrats (mostly Blue Dogs) voted for it: http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2011/roll858.xml

Why is Inslee among those 25?

I was surprised to see Defazio vote yes as well: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/68413.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 19, 2011, 01:58:08 PM
The idea polls really well and McKenna probably would've attacked him over it. Why give McKenna that opportunity? (Especially when Inslee won't face a primary so there'll be no criticism from the left).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 19, 2011, 07:20:51 PM
What's the likelihood the Washington AG/SOS positions are won by Democrats in 2012?

The less of a bench they get, the better.

I am optimistic about AG.  After a Survey USA poll showed Ferguson leading 39-34, a poll came out from Moore Information showing the race a dead heat.  Moore Information is a GOP push polling outfit which consistently shows Republican favored results.  Also, Ferguson agreed to a debate request from the King County Bar Association while Dunn turned it down.  While limiting debates is a classic incumbent strategy, this race is for an open seat and there is nothing to suggest Dunn has a big advantage.  It looks like he is either lazy or running scared.

Quote
Last week, Andrew Prazuch, the Executive Director of the King County Bar Association, sent an email to Dunn and Democratic King County Council member Bob Ferguson, inviting the pair to debate at the upcoming KCBA Bench-Bar Conference at Seattle University.  Ferguson emailed back immediately saying  he was in. Dunn, evidently waiting a week to respond and ignoring Ferguson when Ferguson casually asked him about it when they saw each other at Monday’s council meeting, turned down the offer.
http://publicola.com/2011/10/27/speaking-of-budget-woes/ (http://publicola.com/2011/10/27/speaking-of-budget-woes/)

The SoS race looks chaotic because of the number of people running.  I am less confident about that race.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 19, 2011, 08:14:13 PM
^ Are there lots of people running for SoS? I only knew of Kastama and Wyman.

I think Wyman will win.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 19, 2011, 08:17:40 PM
Zach Hudgins and Kathleen Drew have both announced their candidacies as well.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 19, 2011, 08:34:16 PM
Kathleen Drew??? My old state Senator? She's still around? lol!

Still seems like Wyman is favored, though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 21, 2011, 03:46:05 PM
Here's something... amusing. The vote on the pot initiative in Tacoma had 42,000 votes cast in total; both citywide council races only had 36,000 votes.

(46,000 ballots were returned citywide).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 21, 2011, 04:30:26 PM
Gregoire's proposing a sales tax hike referendum for March.

Obviously it would be rejected, no?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 21, 2011, 04:37:30 PM
Probably, but maybe not. That estate tax thing in 2006 went the way of the pro-tax side when it was focused entirely on education funding. And unlike the food/candy tax initiative there may not be an obvious constituency geared up to oppose this with force ("force" equals lots and lots of $$$). I think the campaign will matter.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 21, 2011, 04:56:04 PM
Vancouver Mayor Tim Leavitt is supposed to announce whether he'll run for Congress next week. Leavitt would be close to the worst possible candidate Democrats could nominate (though it's not even clear if Leavitt would run as a Democrat).

http://www.columbian.com/news/2011/nov/19/leavitt-eyes-pros-cons-of-taking-on-herrera-beutle/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 21, 2011, 10:34:07 PM
It seems unlikely that we'll win the new WA-3. Would be kind of amusing to see Leavitt lose, at least?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 27, 2011, 11:50:20 PM
Something worth mentioning: Starting at midnight tonight, McKenna won't be able to fundraise until sometime in March due to the freeze on state officials raising money during legislative sessions.

Inslee is free to raise money during this time period.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 27, 2011, 11:59:41 PM
Something worth mentioning: Starting at midnight tonight, McKenna won't be able to fundraise until sometime in March due to the freeze on state officials raising money during legislative sessions.

Inslee is free to raise money during this time period.



;D  ;D  ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 28, 2011, 12:03:05 AM
Something worth mentioning: Starting at midnight tonight, McKenna won't be able to fundraise until sometime in March due to the freeze on state officials raising money during legislative sessions.

Inslee is free to raise money during this time period.



;D  ;D  ;D
Not good for McKenna, but I'm sure third party groups will be waiting in line to donate once the session ends.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on November 28, 2011, 02:41:10 AM
Thank God. Perhaps I'll stop seeing ads to donate to him on every site I go.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 30, 2011, 01:36:34 AM
Phillip Yin has backed out on running against Cantwell --

http://www.king5.com/news/politics/GOP-Senate-hopeful-bows-out-of-race-132672318.html (http://www.king5.com/news/politics/GOP-Senate-hopeful-bows-out-of-race-132672318.html)

Looks like Baumgartner is going to be her challenger.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on November 30, 2011, 03:59:32 AM
Another SurveyUSA poll for Washington: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=baa19978-df0f-4904-827b-65df44d845fb

1. 3-yr 0.5% sales tax increase: 47% support, 47% oppose, 6% not sure

2. Legalize possession of up to one ounce of marijuana with a 25% purchase tax: 57% support, 39% oppose, 4% not sure

3. Same-sex marriage options: 40% support marriage, 32% support civil unions, 24% want no legal recognition

4. 2012 Governor: 44% McKenna, 38% Inslee, 17% undecided

5. 2012 Senate: Various, Cantwell winning all


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 30, 2011, 11:34:19 AM
Those are great marijuana numbers. Although their marriage questions is basically worthless the way they phrased it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on December 01, 2011, 02:31:06 AM
Gregoire petitions the DEA to declassify Marijuana as an illegal drug:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2016900602_marijuana01m.html

Implications for the pot legalization effort next year?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 01, 2011, 09:38:01 AM
I doubt the DEA will respond within the next year. Last time this was put in it took them almost a decade.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 05, 2011, 11:29:03 PM
My precinct results:

I-1183
196 Yes (57.3%)
146 No (42.7%)

I-1125
225 No (69.2%)
100 Yes (30.8%)

I-1163
188 Yes (56.8%)
143 No (43.2%)

SJR 8205
271 Approved (86.6%)
41 Rejected (13.4%)

SJR 8206
219 Approved (71.8%)
86 Rejected (28.2%)

Director of Elections
188 Huff (77.4%)
55 Greene (22.6%)

Port  #1
157 Bryant (64.1%)
88 Willard (35.9%)

Port #2
123 Taerlton (50.0%)
123 Pope  (50.0%)

Very pleased to see I-1125 defeated by such a large margin!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 05, 2011, 11:39:16 PM
Why so much love for Pope?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 06, 2011, 12:14:22 AM
I don't know. That upset me. :(

He seems to have won the entire 5th LD though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 06, 2011, 08:16:13 PM
Initiative maps for the Seattle area!

()

()

source: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2016947109_new_maps_show_support_oppositi.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 07, 2011, 12:46:31 AM
Anyone who doubts the power of The Stranger should look at the I-1183 results on Capitol Hill and keep in mind that I-1100 (I believe) passed some of those No >60% precincts.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on December 07, 2011, 02:21:24 AM
Anyone who doubts the power of The Stranger should look at the I-1183 results on Capitol Hill and keep in mind that I-1100 (I believe) passed some of those No >60% precincts.
U-district 60% yes on i-1183. Who would have guessed that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 07, 2011, 02:49:28 AM
Anyone who doubts the power of The Stranger should look at the I-1183 results on Capitol Hill and keep in mind that I-1100 (I believe) passed some of those No >60% precincts.
U-district 60% yes on i-1183. Who would have guessed that.

Is there even a Costco in Seattle? I don't think I've ever seen one there.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 07, 2011, 03:08:11 AM
Anyone who doubts the power of The Stranger should look at the I-1183 results on Capitol Hill and keep in mind that I-1100 (I believe) passed some of those No >60% precincts.
U-district 60% yes on i-1183. Who would have guessed that.

Is there even a Costco in Seattle? I don't think I've ever seen one there.

You know that area in Seattle between the West Seattle Bridge and Georgetown?  Yeah, me neither really.  But there's apparently a giant Costco there.  That's it, though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 07, 2011, 12:59:05 PM
Yeah, I generally try to avoid that area...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on December 07, 2011, 01:01:10 PM
Yeah, I generally try to avoid that area...

A good idea.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 08, 2011, 07:20:54 PM
http://www.nwdailymarker.com/2011/12/tweets-from-congressional-staffers-describe-on-job-drinking-in-office-of-congressman-larsen/

lol


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on December 08, 2011, 07:30:45 PM
Ha ha ha.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on December 09, 2011, 12:15:35 AM
roflcopter


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on December 09, 2011, 03:32:39 PM
Larsen's staffers get the boot.  Maybe they can go drown their sorrows with Jack Daniels, lol.

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2011/12/09/drinking-and-tweeting-get-larsen-aides-fired/ (http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2011/12/09/drinking-and-tweeting-get-larsen-aides-fired/)



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on December 15, 2011, 08:15:51 PM
Michael Baumgartner turns Sen. Cantwell's marital status into a political attack:

Quote
Turning a highly politicized issue personal, Sen. Maria Cantwell's Republican challenger criticized her support for making Plan B emergency contraceptives widely available to younger teen girls, noting that Cantwell is unmarried and saying she has frequently voted to "undermine the role of parents in child rearing."
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2017022077_baumgartner.html?syndication=rss (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2017022077_baumgartner.html?syndication=rss)

It will be amusing seeing this jerk get whipped next year.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on December 15, 2011, 08:20:15 PM
Washingtonians, I have a question:

Now that Sen. Patty Murray is in her fourth term, and Sen. Maria Cantwell is in position to win her third, how do they compare with the late Sen. Warren Magnuson?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on December 15, 2011, 08:34:30 PM
I doubt any of the posters in this thread are old enough to be able to make that comparison, Frodo.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on December 15, 2011, 08:51:46 PM
Washingtonians, I have a question:

Now that Sen. Patty Murray is in her fourth term, and Sen. Maria Cantwell is in position to win her third, how do they compare with the late Sen. Warren Magnuson?

I wasn't around during Maggie's heyday but I've read a little about him so I'll give it a try.

Neither has reached that stature (yet) but Murray now has enough clout that she isn't far off. The Magnuson comparison makes more sense for Murray because her down-home style is reminiscent of Magnuson.  Like Magnuson Murray generally avoids the spotlight, preferring to operate under the radar.  Also, at the height of his power Magnuson chaired the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee.  Murray is a senior member of that committee (the prime reason for her effectiveness at delivering federal dollars to Washington state -- she is very similar to Magnuson in this regard) and I think she has the potential to someday chair the committee too.  However, Murray does not have Magnuson's salty personal life.

Cantwell's serious, more cerebral approach and high-profile environmentalism is more reminiscent of Washington's other Senate legend, Scoop Jackson.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on December 15, 2011, 09:46:44 PM
Washingtonians, I have a question:

Now that Sen. Patty Murray is in her fourth term, and Sen. Maria Cantwell is in position to win her third, how do they compare with the late Sen. Warren Magnuson?

I wasn't around during Maggie's heyday but I've read a little about him so I'll give it a try.

Neither has reached that stature (yet) but Murray now has enough clout that she isn't far off. The Magnuson comparison makes more sense for Murray because her down-home style is reminiscent of Magnuson.  Like Magnuson Murray generally avoids the spotlight, preferring to operate under the radar.  Also, at the height of his power Magnuson chaired the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee.  Murray is a senior member of that committee (the prime reason for her effectiveness at delivering federal dollars to Washington state -- she is very similar to Magnuson in this regard) and I think she has the potential to someday chair the committee too.  However, Murray does not have Magnuson's salty personal life.

Then I guess I will have to ask the question again sometime in the 2020s then.  :P

But thanks for the good informative answer, though.  

Quote
Cantwell's serious, more cerebral approach and high-profile environmentalism is more reminiscent of Washington's other Senate legend, Scoop Jackson.

But not her foreign policy?  Scoop Jackson was best known for being a hawk on national security issues.  Didn't prominent neo-conservatives used to serve on his staff, like Richard Perle and Paul Wolfowitz, among others?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 16, 2011, 09:19:33 PM
I just got robocalled by the Gingrich campaign. It was quite amusing.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 16, 2011, 10:56:43 PM
I just got robocalled by the Gingrich campaign. It was quite amusing.

Haha, what'd they have to say?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 16, 2011, 11:07:22 PM
I just got robocalled by the Gingrich campaign. It was quite amusing.

Haha, what'd they have to say?

Obama's leading America to "radical, European socialism". Vote for me because I worked with Jack Kemp once. The rest of the field is great too, but they use talking points and slogans like "Yes We Can" too much...yada yada standard stuff.

Gingrich read the whole thing though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on December 16, 2011, 11:27:52 PM
Quote
Cantwell's serious, more cerebral approach and high-profile environmentalism is more reminiscent of Washington's other Senate legend, Scoop Jackson.

But not her foreign policy?  Scoop Jackson was best known for being a hawk on national security issues.  Didn't prominent neo-conservatives used to serve on his staff, like Richard Perle and Paul Wolfowitz, among others?

Yes, Perle and Wolfowitz were former Jackson staffers.

Cantwell voted for the Iraq War and refused to recant, which infuriated anti-war Democrats in Washington State.  She got a lot of blowback over this in 2005 and the first half of 2006.  This has some similarities to the intraparty rebellion "superhawk" Jackson faced over Vietnam.  But while she is more hawkish than Patty Murray (who voted against the war), I think to characterize Cantwell as some sort of neocon by way of Scoop Jackson is a mistake.  As the war went south Cantwell grew increasingly critical of Bush both rhetorically and in her votes, including supporting the 2006 nonbinding resolution which urged a withdrawal of forces.  There's little evidence she is a true believer in the way Jackson was.  In that sense, she resembles Jackson more in terms of his political persona rather than his issues.  Both politicians are/were serious, intense, driven individuals not known for levity.

In terms of influence, Cantwell has a ways to go before she is at Magnuson/Jackson or even Patty Murray levels.  But she works very hard and is on the Senate's other "power" committee, Finance, so perhaps someday she will get there.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on December 17, 2011, 01:15:38 AM
Michael Baumgartner turns Sen. Cantwell's marital status into a political attack:

Quote
Turning a highly politicized issue personal, Sen. Maria Cantwell's Republican challenger criticized her support for making Plan B emergency contraceptives widely available to younger teen girls, noting that Cantwell is unmarried and saying she has frequently voted to "undermine the role of parents in child rearing."
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2017022077_baumgartner.html?syndication=rss (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2017022077_baumgartner.html?syndication=rss)

It will be amusing seeing this jerk get whipped next year.

My god what a stupid comment for him to make. Not only is it discriminatory, but insinuates that she's odd for being single and childless. I seriously hope Reichert sees the writing of another likely Republican wave on the wall and puts his hat in the ring, because this is an election blowing statement for Baumgartner to say.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 17, 2011, 01:27:50 AM
I just got robocalled by the Gingrich campaign. It was quite amusing.

Haha, what'd they have to say?

Obama's leading America to "radical, European socialism". Vote for me because I worked with Jack Kemp once. The rest of the field is great too, but they use talking points and slogans like "Yes We Can" too much...yada yada standard stuff.

Gingrich read the whole thing though.

That's kind of weird you got it, though...a new-ish voter with no partisan Republican history in a down-the-list caucus state...?  He must be casting a wide net.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 17, 2011, 12:38:43 PM
I just got robocalled by the Gingrich campaign. It was quite amusing.

Haha, what'd they have to say?

Obama's leading America to "radical, European socialism". Vote for me because I worked with Jack Kemp once. The rest of the field is great too, but they use talking points and slogans like "Yes We Can" too much...yada yada standard stuff.

Gingrich read the whole thing though.

That's kind of weird you got it, though...a new-ish voter with no partisan Republican history in a down-the-list caucus state...?  He must be casting a wide net.

I know of a household in the Olympia area that got a robocall from Gingrich a few weeks ago as well... the folks are strong Democrats so it was especially odd.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 19, 2011, 10:41:10 PM
Oh jeez: http://electstanflemming.com/

Also, thread title change.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 19, 2011, 11:20:44 PM
Oh jeez: http://electstanflemming.com/

Also, thread title change.

Is he hoping to be in WA-10?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 19, 2011, 11:25:18 PM
I'm guessing so. A run against Dicks would be a complete waste of time.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 19, 2011, 11:26:22 PM
I'm guessing so. A run against Dicks would be a complete waste of time.

Would he be a strong opponent for Heck? I know very little about South Sound politics.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 19, 2011, 11:30:50 PM
I'm guessing so. A run against Dicks would be a complete waste of time.

Would he be a strong opponent for Heck? I know very little about South Sound politics.

He's got a good bio (former Democrat, moderate, physician, combat veteran, African-American) and is pretty popular in University Place. On the other hand, U.P. may not even end up in the 10th and it'll only be a small fraction of it if it is. He also hasn't worked very hard in the two elections of his I've observed; seems to prefer spending his time with non-political community involvement stuff.

I don't think he'd be able to get past Muri to get to the general.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on December 20, 2011, 11:03:17 PM
Publicola interviewed Gov. Gregoire.  It covers a wide range of topics -- taxes, the budget, OWS, medical marijuana, gay marriage, education, Inslee/McKenna and her legacy.

Pt. 1 -- http://publicola.com/2011/12/19/publicola-qa-with-gov-gregoire-pt-1/ (http://publicola.com/2011/12/19/publicola-qa-with-gov-gregoire-pt-1/)

Pt. 2 -- http://publicola.com/2011/12/20/publicola-qa-with-gov-gregoire-pt-2/ (http://publicola.com/2011/12/20/publicola-qa-with-gov-gregoire-pt-2/)

Pt. 3 -- http://publicola.com/2011/12/21/publicola-qa-with-gov-gregoire-pt-3/ (http://publicola.com/2011/12/21/publicola-qa-with-gov-gregoire-pt-3/)


edited to add Part 3.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 21, 2011, 02:13:22 AM
Stan Flemming isn't actually African-American, even if he looks it; he's (adopted) South Asian.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on December 21, 2011, 05:36:11 AM
Publicola interviewed Gov. Gregoire.  It covers a wide range of topics -- taxes, the budget, OWS, medical marijuana, gay marriage, education, Inslee/McKenna and her legacy.

Pt. 1 -- http://publicola.com/2011/12/19/publicola-qa-with-gov-gregoire-pt-1/ (http://publicola.com/2011/12/19/publicola-qa-with-gov-gregoire-pt-1/)

Pt. 2 -- http://publicola.com/2011/12/20/publicola-qa-with-gov-gregoire-pt-2/ (http://publicola.com/2011/12/20/publicola-qa-with-gov-gregoire-pt-2/)

Wow I kinda feel bad for her having to deal with such a down economy/budget and having voters reject some good proposals at the ballot

And why does she seem so hesitant to just flat out say she supports gay marriage?

Quote
PubliCola: Do you support legislation legalizing gay marriage?

Gregoire: [Legislators are] going to have to get me a bill. They haven’t been able to yet. I need to see what it says. What’s it going to do with domestic partnerships? What’s it going to do with domestic partners who come into the state of Washington?

PubliCola: Have you told [state] Sen. Ed Murray and [state] Rep. Jamie Pedersen [the gay state legislators leading the charge for marriage equality] those concerns?

Gregoire: Absolutely. In October. They’re still working on it. They’re working on it.

PubliCola: If they can get a bill you feel legalizes gay marriage, but doesn’t undermine the domestic partnership rules, would you sign that?

Gregoire: Then you’ve got to deal with the churches. I told them that in October as well. I’m not going to tell the churches … I’m not get involved in their decision whether they’re going to perform marriages or not. I don’t think the state ought to get involved in that. They [Murray and Pedersen] agreed, and they said they were going to get me a bill, and they have not yet gotten me a bill.

PubliCola: So, a bill that deals with the churches exemption, doesn’t undermine domestic partnerships, legalizes gay marriage…

Gregoire: I need to see the bill.

It's not like it would hurt her to openly support it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 21, 2011, 07:13:44 AM
Stan Flemming isn't actually African-American, even if he looks it; he's (adopted) South Asian.

Wow. Literally everyone I talk to in U.P. has told me he's African-American. Interesting.

EDIT: This article is hilarious, mostly because of how crazy Lorna Smith is: http://universityplace.patch.com/articles/was-university-place-s-first-mayor-african-american


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on December 21, 2011, 11:56:09 AM
Stan Flemming isn't actually African-American, even if he looks it; he's (adopted) South Asian.

Wow. Literally everyone I talk to in U.P. has told me he's African-American. Interesting.

EDIT: This article is hilarious, mostly because of how crazy Lorna Smith is: http://universityplace.patch.com/articles/was-university-place-s-first-mayor-african-american
Lol, why does she even care!?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 28, 2011, 02:28:36 PM
http://www.redistricting.wa.gov/assets/maps/122811_drafts/C-GC_2.0_Big_Map_Statewide.pdf

Can't see the damn thing because of the terrible lines, but:

1st
Interior part of North Sound plus Bothell, Kirkland, Redmond and the Gold Coast.  Seems like Lean Dem, although not that strongly.

2nd
Coastal areas of North Sound from Mountlake Terrace-Lynnwood to Bellingham.  Dem.

3rd
Can't get the main map to load, but it's the Republican district we all expected.

4th, 5th
whatever.  Republican.

6th
West, North and South Tacoma; most of Mason County; all of Grays Harbor, Kitsap, Jefferson, Clallam.  Good Dem lean.

7th
Yes, they split Seattle -- the minority-y parts Central District and southward are in the 9th.  Welcome, Lake Forest Park and Normandy Park, and all the way up to Edmonds.  Strongly Dem.

8th
Sammamish, Issaquah, Auburn, a bit of Kent, Snoqualmie, North Bend...and then over to Kittitas and Chelan, I think?  Terrible map.  Reichert's pretty safe now, though.

9th
Is this minority majority?  Southeast Seattle and the expected suburbs, plus Newcastle, Bellevue, Mercer Island, and Northeast Tacoma.  Strange; Dem.

10th
Central Pierce County (UP, Fife, Sumner, Puyallup, East Tacoma, Spanaway, Summit, Frederickson, DuPont) plus pretty much all but far south Thurston County.  I'm not sure how this district would be oriented...probably a modest Dem lean.  Can someone crunch the numbers?

That makes:

1st - Democrat
2nd - Democrat
3rd - Republican
4th - Republican
5th - Republican
6th - Democrat
7th - Democrat
8th - Republican
9th - Democrat
10th - Swing?

Democrat 5, Republican 4, Dem Swing (?) 1


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 28, 2011, 02:34:10 PM
Wow...what a terrible map, though not surprising. I really don't like what they did to the 1st and 2nd districts. The 1st goes all the way from Lynden to Yarrow Point. WTF?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 28, 2011, 02:41:42 PM
There is a redistricting thread, you know. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on December 28, 2011, 05:42:27 PM
You have the political leanings of the 1st and 10th districts mixed-up. The 10 district is lean D, the 1st district is a toss-up.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 28, 2011, 06:41:30 PM
Any chance one of the Democratic legislators will run in the Heckmander? It would at least be semi-satisfying if he lost to another Democrat.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on December 28, 2011, 06:51:16 PM
()
Is there any reasonable way to draw WA more Republican? There should be at least 6 safe dem seats.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 28, 2011, 06:52:30 PM
Any chance one of the Democratic legislators will run in the Heckmander? It would at least be semi-satisfying if he lost to another Democrat.

They've all already endorsed him :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 28, 2011, 06:55:12 PM
Any chance one of the Democratic legislators will run in the Heckmander? It would at least be semi-satisfying if he lost to another Democrat.

They've all already endorsed him :)

Oh well. Some corrupt good ol' boy party hack wins. Again.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on December 28, 2011, 07:00:18 PM
Any chance one of the Democratic legislators will run in the Heckmander? It would at least be semi-satisfying if he lost to another Democrat.

They've all already endorsed him :)

Oh well. Some corrupt good ol' boy party hack wins. Again.

wurt.? You're an independent now? Protest against Tim Ceis? ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on December 28, 2011, 07:02:25 PM
Anybody think that we could be down to one Republican district after 2020 redistricting?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on December 28, 2011, 07:07:40 PM
Anybody think that we could be down to one Republican district after 2020 redistricting?
Not a chance. I doubt there will be enough Hispanic growth to make the 4th democratic and the fifth still will probably be marginally or modestly solid republican.

I think the third will continue to be republican as well, I can only imagine further exurban growth in Clark county, which will continue to outvote the more established Vancouver/Hazel Dell/Camas area.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on December 28, 2011, 07:11:13 PM
Any chance of Marko Liias running against Larsen in that horrific WA-02?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 28, 2011, 07:12:32 PM
Liias actually wound up in the 7th CD.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 28, 2011, 07:48:29 PM
Any chance one of the Democratic legislators will run in the Heckmander? It would at least be semi-satisfying if he lost to another Democrat.

They've all already endorsed him :)

Oh well. Some corrupt good ol' boy party hack wins. Again.

wurt.? You're an independent now? Protest against Tim Ceis? ;)

I've been thinking about it for a while. It was one factor in my decision.

We'll see if I stick with it. Maybe I'm just being mad and will switch back. I don't know. :P

Governor McKenna, a Republican State Senate, and maybe 5 Republican Congressmen. Next year is gonna be just delightful.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on December 28, 2011, 07:54:27 PM
Any chance one of the Democratic legislators will run in the Heckmander? It would at least be semi-satisfying if he lost to another Democrat.

They've all already endorsed him :)

Oh well. Some corrupt good ol' boy party hack wins. Again.

wurt.? You're an independent now? Protest against Tim Ceis? ;)

I've been thinking about it for a while. It was one factor in my decision.

We'll see if I stick with it. Maybe I'm just being mad and will switch back. I don't know. :P

Governor McKenna, a Republican State Senate, and maybe 5 Republican Congressmen. Next year is gonna be just delightful.

Whoa, I thought you were realisticidealist for a second! 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on December 28, 2011, 08:51:35 PM
Liias actually wound up in the 7th CD.
I think the 7th might actually be open. Doesn't McDermott live in Mt.Baker, which is now the 9th? Or am I just plain wrong that he lives in south Seattle....?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 28, 2011, 09:09:12 PM
Liias actually wound up in the 7th CD.
I think the 7th might actually be open. Doesn't McDermott live in Mt.Baker, which is now the 9th? Or am I just plain wrong that he lives in south Seattle....?

It looks like he's registered in Queen Anne.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on December 28, 2011, 11:16:08 PM
bgwah is telling me how this Steve Hobbes guy is a right wing anti-worker prick.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on December 29, 2011, 04:54:21 AM
Any chance one of the Democratic legislators will run in the Heckmander? It would at least be semi-satisfying if he lost to another Democrat.

They've all already endorsed him :)

Oh well. Some corrupt good ol' boy party hack wins. Again.

wurt.? You're an independent now? Protest against Tim Ceis? ;)

I've been thinking about it for a while. It was one factor in my decision.

We'll see if I stick with it. Maybe I'm just being mad and will switch back. I don't know. :P

Governor McKenna, a Republican State Senate, and maybe 5 Republican Congressmen. Next year is gonna be just delightful.

Background on the state senate map?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on December 29, 2011, 08:07:06 AM
Same thing as the congressional map. Democrats being packed into a few districts that are ultra-Democratic and Republicans getting a bunch of districts that are just Republican enough to be out of the Democrats hands outside of a landslide for their party.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 29, 2011, 02:21:09 PM
I'm fine with it in some cases... Seattle is a very Democratic city. It's about the size of a Congressional district. It makes sense having it be its own congressional district. I don't support splitting it up to favor my party.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 29, 2011, 03:34:53 PM
Alright, I've made a decision: I'll keep the red avatar until SOPA gets to Obama's desk. If he signs it, I'm going back to a green avatar!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on December 29, 2011, 03:42:36 PM
I'm fine with it in some cases... Seattle is a very Democratic city. It's about the size of a Congressional district. It makes sense having it be its own congressional district. I don't support splitting it up to favor my party.
Not to mention that now supposedly there is a stronger community of interest between S. Seattle and its southern suburbs than with the rest of Seattle, which is completely ridiculous.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 29, 2011, 03:49:12 PM
I'm fine with it in some cases... Seattle is a very Democratic city. It's about the size of a Congressional district. It makes sense having it be its own congressional district. I don't support splitting it up to favor my party.
Not to mention that now supposedly there is a stronger community of interest between S. Seattle and its southern suburbs than with the rest of Seattle, which is completely ridiculous.

It's complete non-sense. The Republicans have wisely used the minority issue to their advantage. You really do have to respect the political skills Gorton has shown, regardless of what you think of his politics.

I was really hoping the Eastside could mostly be united in the 1st district, so I'm pretty disappointed to see that we're not just being divided into two but three districts. Oh well.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on December 30, 2011, 08:40:07 AM
Now that we know what the districts look like on the congressional level, how does the legislature look?  Will it be more Democratic than with the old districts? 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 30, 2011, 08:53:08 AM
Marko Liias is ending his bid for congress after being districted from WA-1 to WA-7:

Quote
Dear Hoss,

I have some tough news to share with you. I will not be continuing my campaign for Congress.

My home, and the communities that I have represented in the State Legislature, were moved into existing congressional districts that already have strong representatives in Congress. The district where I've lived most of my life and hoped to represent in Congress, the First Congressional District, will now move east and become a large, more rural district that stretches from east of Lake Washington to the Canadian Border.

Some have suggested that I move to this new district and run anyway, but that is not who I am.

I started this campaign because I believe that the middle class needs strong, principled voices in Congress. And while 2012 will not be the year that I take our fight to Washington DC, that does not mean our fight is over. After taking some time to consider our options, Mike and I have decided that I should seek reelection to the State Legislature where I can continue the fight for a budget that preserves the safety net, funding for education, realistic transportation solutions and full marriage equality.

I am proud of all that we accomplished together in this campaign. In less than six months, we attracted support from over 3,000 individual donors, held over a dozen house parties, and we have earned endorsements from amazing community leaders and committed citizens. I could not be more grateful for your support and encouragement.

As I look forward to the upcoming legislative session, I know that there will be teachers and home care workers and small business owners that need a voice in Olympia, and that will be my task. I may ask for your help again in the weeks ahead, and I know that you will be there with me.

Thanks for everything.

All my best,
Marko


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 30, 2011, 01:18:53 PM
Now that we know what the districts look like on the congressional level, how does the legislature look?  Will it be more Democratic than with the old districts? 

No.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 30, 2011, 02:39:52 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2016939802__bill_finkbeiner_a_former.html

Missed that piece of news. Another "moderate" Republican challenger for Owen.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on December 30, 2011, 05:55:57 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2016939802__bill_finkbeiner_a_former.html

Missed that piece of news. Another "moderate" Republican challenger for Owen.

Isn't he to the left of Owen? If I remember correctly Owen did afterall endorse "Independent" Susan Hutchison for King County Executive.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 30, 2011, 06:20:33 PM
To the left on social issues, probably.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CT27 on January 02, 2012, 03:24:51 PM
What district are Edmonds and Shoreline going to be in?  I can't really see on the map.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 02, 2012, 05:37:41 PM
What district are Edmonds and Shoreline going to be in?  I can't really see on the map.

They're in the 7th now.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 03, 2012, 03:37:48 AM
Glenn Anderson is running for Lt. Governor, too? Wow, I'm really out of the loop on this race. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 03, 2012, 07:19:45 PM
Glenn Anderson is running for Lt. Governor, too? Wow, I'm really out of the loop on this race. :P

Haha, really? I hadn't heard that either. Hilarious.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on January 03, 2012, 08:59:33 PM
And why does she seem so hesitant to just flat out say she supports gay marriage?
It's not like it would hurt her to openly support it.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2017151965_sources_say_gregoire_will_publ.html

Quote
Gov. Chris Gregoire is expected to announce her support for gay marriage at a news conference Wednesday morning, according to sources close to the discussions.

The governor's office won't comment except to say there will be an 11 a.m. news conference on Wednesday to discuss "marriage equality."

Leaders of Washington United for Marriage, a coalition of gay-rights, civil-liberties, labor and religious groups, announced in November they plan to pressure the Legislature this coming session to pass a marriage equality law in 2012.

Gregoire has supported giving gay and lesbian partners the same rights that married couples have today, but has never publicly endorsed same-sex marriage.

This update is probably as surprising as when Inslee announced he was running for Governor :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 03, 2012, 10:08:38 PM
So what are we going to give as the over-under odds for gay marriage in Washington in 2012?

I'm think 60-40 against becoming law this year (and yes that's a random number more or less).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on January 04, 2012, 05:32:44 PM
http://publicola.com/2012/01/04/latest-poll-voters-still-for-legalizing-pot-but-support-drops/

()

>:(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 04, 2012, 05:34:14 PM
The July number did seem way too high. Still disappointing.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 04, 2012, 05:49:44 PM
I got to be at the press conference.  Gregoire is a pretty personable speaker when she starts talking about herself. I think the Senate will be tough to crack, but otherwise I think things are lined up pretty well.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 04, 2012, 07:00:10 PM
I got to be at the press conference.  Gregoire is a pretty personable speaker when she starts talking about herself. I think the Senate will be tough to crack, but otherwise I think things are lined up pretty well.

Well I am sure my senator (Sheldon) will be of no help, so that's -1 right there.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 04, 2012, 07:07:09 PM
I got to be at the press conference.  Gregoire is a pretty personable speaker when she starts talking about herself. I think the Senate will be tough to crack, but otherwise I think things are lined up pretty well.

Well I am sure my senator (Sheldon) will be of no help, so that's -1 right there.

Hargrove will probably be a "No" as well. That puts us down to 25... if we lose one more then it's dead.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on January 04, 2012, 08:08:38 PM
I'd imagine another member who would normally not vote for it, Kastama, will since he's running for Sos.

What about Hobbs, Kilmer, and Hatfield?
I have no clue what their stance is on this... but two are in swing districts and the other is in logging country.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on January 04, 2012, 09:03:18 PM
For Senate Bill 5688 in 2009 on Domestic Partnerships, the Senate voted 30-18-1 for the bill.

3 Republicans crossed over and voted for the bill:
Brandland - 42 (retired)
Pflug - 5
King - 14

4 Democrats crossed over and voted against the bill:
Hargrove - 24
Hatfield - 19
Sheldon - 35
Shin - 21

The first three democrats are all from the Coast/Olympic Peninsula. Shin is Korean so not entirely surprising that he voted against it, although I don't think his district voted against it.

King is the only who who really surprises me, no idea why he voted yes.

I don't know who switched after the last election, but I know that Baumgartner has replaced Marr likely losing that vote. Fain replaced Kauffman in 47, and also seems like a lost cause.
Jarrett has been replaced by Litzow, but 41 is based in Mercer Island and Bellevue, so he would be foolish to be against same-sex marriage. Likewise Oemig was replaced by Hill, but 45 is similarly socially liberal. Maralyn Chase, Steve Conway supported it as a rep.

Kastama, Kilmer, and Hobbs all supported domestic partnerships, but marriage might be different.

Anyways from my count it looks like passage is dependent on getting those Republicans like Pflug and King to continue their support and pull in Litzow, Hill, and possibly Baumgartner or Fain since other Democrats might not support it. It really depends on those Republicans and maybe Shin or another Democrat will switch his original support, but it seems unlikely despite their constituents' views.

 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 04, 2012, 09:42:10 PM
I'm pretty sure solid "No"s are Jim Hargrove (D-Hoquiam), Brian Hatfield (D-Raymond), Tim Sheldon (D-Potlatch), and maybe Paull Shin (D-Edmonds).  I'm pretty sure Rodney Tom (D-Medina) is for it, and I'm pretty sure at least one of the below Republicans is privately committed.

Curtis King has a gay...something.  Son maybe?  Don't know.

Anyway, here are the swing votes as I can tell so far:

Tracey Eide (D-Federal Way)
Joe Fain (R-Auburn)
Andy Hill (R-Redmond)
Steve Hobbs (D-Lake Stevens)
Mary Margaret Haugen (D-Camano Island)
Jim Kastama (D-Puyallup)
Curtis King (R-Yakima)
Steve Litzow (R-Mercer Island)
Cheryl Pflug (R-Maple Valley) [although probably not.]


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 04, 2012, 09:46:15 PM
Rodney Tom is a Democrat.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on January 05, 2012, 02:49:58 AM
According to a Yakima news story, King is against same-sex marriage with a rather strong stance, so I guess he's not much of a swing vote.

"I think marriage is defined by the state as between a man and a woman and I think it should stay that way," said (R) Sen. Curtis King, 14th District.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 05, 2012, 03:12:59 AM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2017162015_apwagaymarriage5thldwritethru.html

- Sheldon (D-Potlatch) against, no surprise
- Haugen (D-Camano Island) won't support it without referendum option; was noncommittal about referendum support

Haugen is a pretty hard hit.

God, these people are so absurd.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 06, 2012, 05:04:44 PM
Gregoire was on CNN today about her support for gay marriage. I was presently surprised at how well she presented her case, she may be a bit cold but she's also incredibly intelligent.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 06, 2012, 05:19:44 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2017170962_bruce_harrell_mulls_congressio.html

lol. Bruce Harrell is only on the city council because his opponent got a DUI (that was dismissed later) right before the election. I doubt he'll be so lucky if he runs for Congress.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 06, 2012, 05:28:09 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2017162015_apwagaymarriage5thldwritethru.html

- Sheldon (D-Potlatch) against, no surprise
- Haugen (D-Camano Island) won't support it without referendum option; was noncommittal about referendum support

Haugen is a pretty hard hit.

God, these people are so absurd.

If it doesn't pass in Olympia is there going to be an initiative organized?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on January 06, 2012, 08:07:08 PM
There is probably going to be an initiative regardless if it passes or not.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 06, 2012, 10:01:49 PM
There is probably going to be an initiative regardless if it passes or not.

Yep, it's go time. I have the feeling that we have arrived at a point where those supporting gay marriage are not willing to wait any longer while those against will challenge anything that gets passed in the legislature. Which means that it'll end up with the voters one way or another.

Perhaps that's why Gregoire decided to act now..


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 08, 2012, 12:24:36 AM
Tim Eyman filed five initiatives with the Secretary of State. He won't collect signatures on all of these, but here's a sneak peek (from the TNT) at what we might have to deal with this fall:

- Protecting his 2/3 initiative: Eyman convinced voters to require a two-thirds super-majority vote to raise taxes in the Legislature with I-1053 in 2010. His new proposal aims to keep the governor and Legislature from changing it.
- Capping car tabs: He’s also proposed a $30 limit to car tabs, which would limit the fees and taxes Washington can raise on vehicles.
- Traffic camera control: Another of his measures aims to remove all traffic cameras in the state that do not have voter approval.
- Investigating government fraud: This would create a state inspector general’s office, funded by existing sales taxes, to investigate fraud.
- The initiative process: Finally, he’s looking to make interfering with signature gathering illegal, as well as allowing more time to gather signatures for ballot initiatives.

That first one is particularly evil. The Legislature can suspend his 2/3 requirement after two years as they can with any initiative. If he just keeps passing it every two years though then the Legislature's hands are tied. Bastard.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on January 08, 2012, 01:11:15 AM
I can see all of those passing, minus perhaps the car tab. The traffic camera and fraud one,  IMO, would have a lot of support.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 08, 2012, 01:18:27 AM
I wonder if the car tabs initiative is aimed at stopping localities (like King County) from having their own.

I'm actually most bothered by the last one. If there's something wrong with the initiative process, it's that paid signature gatherers can just lie to and deceive people.

The fraud thing is also perplexing---isn't that what the State Auditor is for?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: BigSkyBob on January 08, 2012, 02:21:11 PM
Tim Eyman filed five initiatives with the Secretary of State. He won't collect signatures on all of these, but here's a sneak peek (from the TNT) at what we might have to deal with this fall:

- Protecting his 2/3 initiative: Eyman convinced voters to require a two-thirds super-majority vote to raise taxes in the Legislature with I-1053 in 2010. His new proposal aims to keep the governor and Legislature from changing it.
- Capping car tabs: He’s also proposed a $30 limit to car tabs, which would limit the fees and taxes Washington can raise on vehicles.
- Traffic camera control: Another of his measures aims to remove all traffic cameras in the state that do not have voter approval.

The entire system amounts to little more than tax farming.

Instead of having the courage to either raise taxes by a dollar, at little administrative cost, or cut spending by a dollar, politicians are effectively granting tax farmers the right to raise taxes on the public by several dollars just to obtain a dollar for themselves. That's pathetic.

What is doubly pathetic is their rationalization, "We're just trying to change behavior." Of course, there doing it for the money.

Quote
- Investigating government fraud: This would create a state inspector general’s office, funded by existing sales taxes, to investigate fraud.
- The initiative process: Finally, he’s looking to make interfering with signature gathering illegal, as well as allowing more time to gather signatures for ballot initiatives.

That first one is particularly evil. The Legislature can suspend his 2/3 requirement after two years as they can with any initiative. If he just keeps passing it every two years though then the Legislature's hands are tied. Bastard.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 08, 2012, 04:30:38 PM
^

I don't think anyone needs the intent explained.  It exists to raise revenue by enforcing an existing statute to almost nitpicky levels.  Construing this as "raising taxes on the public by several dollars" doesn't really make sense because this isn't a randomly or evenly distributed tax.  I think we all understand exactly how red light cameras work in terms of revenue collection, though, seriously...they're red light cameras.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 08, 2012, 04:33:49 PM
I'd actually vote for that initiative. I hate those cameras.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 08, 2012, 07:18:27 PM
Steve Litzow (R-Mercer Island) is a Yes on gay marriage, and the Times editorial board virtually awards him a Medal of Honor for it:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorials/2017179497_edit09litzow.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 08, 2012, 07:20:11 PM
Steve Litzow (R-Mercer Island) is a Yes on gay marriage

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorials/2017179497_edit09litzow.html

No surprise. I'm guessing Hill would be the 2nd Republican to vote for it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on January 08, 2012, 07:42:53 PM
Gregoire was on CNN today about her support for gay marriage. I was presently surprised at how well she presented her case, she may be a bit cold but she's also incredibly intelligent.

Here is the clip of the CNN interview for those who would like to see it:

http://www.cnn.com/video/?/video/bestoftv/2012/01/06/nr-washington-gregoire-gay-marriage.cnn#/video/bestoftv/2012/01/06/nr-washington-gregoire-gay-marriage.cnn


And the historic press conference last week when she announced her support:

http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/01/05/what-governor-gregoire-said-as-she-endorsed-marriage-equality-in-washington-state (http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/01/05/what-governor-gregoire-said-as-she-endorsed-marriage-equality-in-washington-state)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 08, 2012, 08:04:36 PM
Here's how I see it.  Based on this (http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2012/01/08/no-same-sex-marriage-without-vote-senator/), I expect Haugen to be a major struggle, although probably a Yes with the (currently unattached) referendum clause.  Here (http://www.thedailyworld.com/sections/news/local/gay-marriage-debate-already-starting.html), Hatfield and Hargrove give an intriguingly noncommittal answer.  Hargrove voted against "everything but marriage," while Hatfield voted for domestic partnerships because they included seniors.  Nonetheless, this is probably not the kind of answer given by legislators who have dismissed a piece of legislation unpopular in their district (as this legislation would be.)

Open to corrections.  

Needs 25

Strong Yes 19
Lean Yes 5
Unknown 3
Lean No 3
Strong No 19

Yes 24
Unknown 3
No 22

My personal guesstimate as of now:

Yes 25
No 24

Strong Yes
Brown (D-Spokane)
Chase (D-Edmonds)
Conway (D-Tacoma)
Fraser (D-Olympia)
Frockt (D-Seattle)
Harper (D-Everett)
Keiser (D-Olympia)
Kline (D-Seattle)
Kohl-Welles (D-Seattle)
Litzow (R-Mercer Island)
McAuliffe (D-Bothell)
Murray (D-Seattle)
Nelson (D-Seattle)
Prentice (D-Renton)
Pridemore (D-Vancouver)
Ranker (D-Friday Harbor)
Regala (D-Tacoma)
Rolfes (D-Bainbridge Island)
Tom (D-Medina)

Lean Yes
Eide (D-Federal Way)
Haugen (D-Camano Island) - With referendum clause only
Hobbs (D-Lake Stevens)
Kastama (D-Puyallup)
Kilmer (D-Gig Harbor) - Personally think he's a solid "Yes"

Unknown
Fain (R-Auburn) - No freaking idea; maybe slight No if I had to guess, because of his district
Hatfield (D-Raymond) - No if I had to guess
Hill (R-Redmond) - Yes if I had to guess

Lean No
Hargrove (D-Hoquiam)
Pflug (R-Maple Valley)
Shin (D-Edmonds)

Strong No
Baumgartner (R-Spokane)
Becker (R-Eatonville)
Benton (R-Vancouver)
Carrell (R-Lakewood)
Delvin (R-Richland)
Ericksen (R-Ferndale)
Hewitt (R-Walla Walla)
Holmquist Newbry (R-Moses Lake)
Honeyford (R-Sunnyside)
King (R-Yakima)
Morton (R-Orient)
Padden (R-Spokane Valley)
Parlette (R-Wenatchee)
Roach (R-Auburn)
Schoesler (R-Ritzville)
Sheldon (D-Potlatch)
Stevens (R-Arlington)
Swecker (R-Rochester)
Zarelli (R-Ridgefield)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on January 08, 2012, 09:14:38 PM
Thanks to Alcon for the analysis.  My guess is that we will probably have to pass this with a referendum clause to get a majority.

While in principle I dislike the idea of civil rights being put up for a vote, I think a referendum clause would be a good idea from a political standpoint.  As we saw with the domestic partner law/R-71, the matter will inevitably wind up on the ballot at some point anyway.  Better to have the fight on our terms at the time of our choosing.  And polling and the results of R-71 certainly suggest marriage equality could win via vote in Washington State.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 08, 2012, 09:16:50 PM
A referendum could help Inslee, I guess.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: BigSkyBob on January 08, 2012, 11:24:17 PM
^

I don't think anyone needs the intent explained.  It exists to raise revenue by enforcing an existing statute to almost nitpicky levels. 

Your formulation evades the essential reality of third-party participation. Companies that install and operate the systems are tax farming, pure and simple.

Quote
Construing this as "raising taxes on the public by several dollars" doesn't really make sense because this isn't a randomly or evenly distributed tax. 

When the tax farmer levies taxes much greater than the amount they pass onto the treasury it makes perfect sense to note how inefficient a method of tax collection that is.

P.S. taxes on cigarettes are not "evenly distributed" either, but, they are clearly taxes nevertheless.

Quote
I think we all understand exactly how red light cameras work in terms of revenue collection, though, seriously...they're red light cameras.

I would hazard to guess that the average voter is completely unaware that red-light companies [the tax farmers] demand contracts in which the cities are prohibited from increasing the duration of the yellow lights, for instance.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 09, 2012, 12:12:03 AM
^

I don't think anyone needs the intent explained.  It exists to raise revenue by enforcing an existing statute to almost nitpicky levels. 

Your formulation evades the essential reality of third-party participation. Companies that install and operate the systems are tax farming, pure and simple.

Quote
Construing this as "raising taxes on the public by several dollars" doesn't really make sense because this isn't a randomly or evenly distributed tax. 

When the tax farmer levies taxes much greater than the amount they pass onto the treasury it makes perfect sense to note how inefficient a method of tax collection that is.

P.S. taxes on cigarettes are not "evenly distributed" either, but, they are clearly taxes nevertheless.

Quote
I think we all understand exactly how red light cameras work in terms of revenue collection, though, seriously...they're red light cameras.

I would hazard to guess that the average voter is completely unaware that red-light companies [the tax farmers] demand contracts in which the cities are prohibited from increasing the duration of the yellow lights, for instance.

Sounds like someone had to pay a ticket after running a red.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 09, 2012, 12:25:15 AM
^ I'd be surprised if he were that old.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on January 09, 2012, 12:53:28 AM
It would be hilarious if BSB was a Washington poster.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 09, 2012, 04:34:30 AM
Your formulation evades the essential reality of third-party participation. Companies that install and operate the systems are tax farming, pure and simple.

When the tax farmer levies taxes much greater than the amount they pass onto the treasury it makes perfect sense to note how inefficient a method of tax collection that is.

I would hazard to guess that the average voter is completely unaware that red-light companies [the tax farmers] demand contracts in which the cities are prohibited from increasing the duration of the yellow lights, for instance.

Are you saying red light camera companies are badly skimming somehow?

P.S. taxes on cigarettes are not "evenly distributed" either, but, they are clearly taxes nevertheless.

I said "randomly or evenly distributed" -- you can't remove a critical component of the statement like that and expect it to stand :P

Let me reiterate:  Calling increased punishment of an existing statute a "tax" simply because it increases the mean amount a taxpayer pays to the government, doesn't make sense to me.  Are all enforced statutes, for instance, "taxes"?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on January 09, 2012, 10:58:15 AM
It would be hilarious if BSB was a Washington poster.

God I hope not.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: BigSkyBob on January 09, 2012, 10:59:19 AM
^

I don't think anyone needs the intent explained.  It exists to raise revenue by enforcing an existing statute to almost nitpicky levels. 

Your formulation evades the essential reality of third-party participation. Companies that install and operate the systems are tax farming, pure and simple.

Quote
Construing this as "raising taxes on the public by several dollars" doesn't really make sense because this isn't a randomly or evenly distributed tax. 

When the tax farmer levies taxes much greater than the amount they pass onto the treasury it makes perfect sense to note how inefficient a method of tax collection that is.

P.S. taxes on cigarettes are not "evenly distributed" either, but, they are clearly taxes nevertheless.

Quote
I think we all understand exactly how red light cameras work in terms of revenue collection, though, seriously...they're red light cameras.

I would hazard to guess that the average voter is completely unaware that red-light companies [the tax farmers] demand contracts in which the cities are prohibited from increasing the duration of the yellow lights, for instance.

Sounds like someone had to pay a ticket after running a red.

Never. That's beside the point. My objection to red light cameras is twofold.

First, as I noted, it is tax farming. Tax farming is an unacceptable practise.

Second, tickets should be issued by officers whom are present at the scene and judging the totality of the circumstances. Redlight cameras consider about one factor: when your vehicle crosses a line. To make the whole tax-farming system work the presumption of innocence is completely negated. The system can't prove your guilt given the totality of circumstances, so people ticketed are presumed to be guilty. Sure, they have the opportunity to attempt to prove their innocence, but, that isn't how our system is suppose to work.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: BigSkyBob on January 09, 2012, 11:34:34 AM
Your formulation evades the essential reality of third-party participation. Companies that install and operate the systems are tax farming, pure and simple.

When the tax farmer levies taxes much greater than the amount they pass onto the treasury it makes perfect sense to note how inefficient a method of tax collection that is.

I would hazard to guess that the average voter is completely unaware that red-light companies [the tax farmers] demand contracts in which the cities are prohibited from increasing the duration of the yellow lights, for instance.

Are you saying red light camera companies are badly skimming somehow?

Again, I said that the tax farming system is inefficient in the sense that the effective taxes levied on the public is significantly less than the actual revenue gained by the government.

I'm not going to speculate as to what the appropriate rate of return tax-farmers ought to gain on their investment because I do not believe any tax-farming ought to be allowed in any circumstance.

Quote
P.S. taxes on cigarettes are not "evenly distributed" either, but, they are clearly taxes nevertheless.

I said "randomly or evenly distributed" -- you can't remove a critical component of the statement like that and expect it to stand :P

Let me reiterate:  Calling increased punishment of an existing statute a "tax" simply because it increases the mean amount a taxpayer pays to the government, doesn't make sense to me.  Are all enforced statutes, for instance, "taxes"?

So, you are admitting cigarette taxes are not "evenly distributed," so you meant by "randomly or evenly distributed" merely "randomly?" Let me tell you, the distribution of smokers in a population is fairly random. Sure, the probablity that any particular individual is a smoker varies with factors such as age, race, income and religion, but, within such subgroups the distribution of smokers is random.

And, yes, if the state entered into to some private company an agreement to enforce some other statute on a revenue-sharing basis, that would be tax farming.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Napoleon on January 09, 2012, 12:37:54 PM
Steve Litzow (R-Mercer Island) is a Yes on gay marriage, and the Times editorial board virtually awards him a Medal of Honor for it:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorials/2017179497_edit09litzow.html

Gay marriage isn't a big deal at the yacht club.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 09, 2012, 07:16:46 PM
@BibSkyBob: Where did you get the term "tax-farming"? I honestly have never heard it before (and am sort of interested as to who in the media is trying to put it out there).

It very much sounds like something Tim Eyeman would pick up.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: BigSkyBob on January 09, 2012, 11:41:44 PM
@BibSkyBob: Where did you get the term "tax-farming"? I honestly have never heard it before (and am sort of interested as to who in the media is trying to put it out there).

It very much sounds like something Tim Eyeman would pick up.

It is my reference. It refers to the practises of Polish nobles. Basically, they rented their estates for a flat fee, and the person paying the flat fee squeezed as much taxation out of the peasants as was [in]humanly possible.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 10, 2012, 12:19:33 AM
Again, I said that the tax farming system is inefficient in the sense that the effective taxes levied on the public is significantly less than the actual revenue gained by the government.

I'm not going to speculate as to what the appropriate rate of return tax-farmers ought to gain on their investment because I do not believe any tax-farming ought to be allowed in any circumstance.

And, yes, if the state entered into to some private company an agreement to enforce some other statute on a revenue-sharing basis, that would be tax farming.

I'm reading the "tax farming" article, and I'm still not sure what you're specifically claiming.  Can you just say it in plain language?

So, you are admitting cigarette taxes are not "evenly distributed," so you meant by "randomly or evenly distributed" merely "randomly?" Let me tell you, the distribution of smokers in a population is fairly random. Sure, the probablity that any particular individual is a smoker varies with factors such as age, race, income and religion, but, within such subgroups the distribution of smokers is random.

I understand the point you're making, but unless by tax, you mean a tax on going through a red light, the analogy to cigarette taxes to prove it's a tax fails, no?  The analogue to a cigarette purchase in this case is running a red light, at which point your analogy requires that all fees associated with punishments be "taxes."  My point was that this analogy failure would only be fixed were the fee randomly or evenly distributed, because then it would no longer be associated with the law-violating act.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 10, 2012, 12:30:08 AM
The narrowly Democratic King County Council (including Reagan Dunn) has voted 8-1 to urge the legislature to pass gay marriage.  The dissenting vote was Kathy Lambert (R-Redmond), who just made a statement about wanting the voters to decide instead.  Reagan Dunn (R-Maple Valley), who's running for State Attorney General, voted yes but argued that a statewide vote would give gay marriage "more legitimacy and authority moving forward," and said he had"no question" voters would approve gay marriage.  His amendment adding the desired vote clause failed 5-4; the three others being Lambert, Jane Hague (R-Bellevue) and Pete von Reichbauer (R-Federal Way).  Hague and von Reichbauer voted to endorse gay marriage in the final vote.

The majority vote as supported by all of the Democrats: Also-AG candidate Bob Ferguson (D-West Seattle), Joe McDermott (D-North Seattle), Larry Phillips (D-North Seattle), Julia Patterson (D-SeaTac) and Larry Gossett (D-Central District).

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2017198837_king_county_council_supports_g.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 10, 2012, 12:53:02 AM
Sen. Mary Margaret Haugen (D-Camano Island) continues to kind of awkwardly hedge on her gay marriage vote (http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/01/09/required-viewing-constituents-of-state-senator-mary-margaret-haugen-try-and-fail-to-convince-her-to-vote-for-same-sex-marriage).

This article (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2017199573_marriage10m.html), which is a stupid meaningless initiative by some dude, suggests that Dem leaders might be using the lack of an emergency clause, and the inevitability of a ballot challenge, as "cover" for Haugen if she's willing to play ball.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: BigSkyBob on January 10, 2012, 01:24:04 AM
Again, I said that the tax farming system is inefficient in the sense that the effective taxes levied on the public is significantly less than the actual revenue gained by the government.

I'm not going to speculate as to what the appropriate rate of return tax-farmers ought to gain on their investment because I do not believe any tax-farming ought to be allowed in any circumstance.

And, yes, if the state entered into to some private company an agreement to enforce some other statute on a revenue-sharing basis, that would be tax farming.

I'm reading the "tax farming" article, and I'm still not sure what you're specifically claiming.  Can you just say it in plain language?

I'm specifically claiming that the contracts for the red-light systems are structured on a revenue-sharing basis that is speculative for the red-light companies.

Quote
So, you are admitting cigarette taxes are not "evenly distributed," so you meant by "randomly or evenly distributed" merely "randomly?" Let me tell you, the distribution of smokers in a population is fairly random. Sure, the probability that any particular individual is a smoker varies with factors such as age, race, income and religion, but, within such subgroups the distribution of smokers is random.

I understand the point you're making, but unless by tax, you mean a tax on going through a red light, the analogy to cigarette taxes to prove it's a tax fails, no?

You are simply wrong there. If the topic was that which was "randomly or evenly distributed" then it was a perfectly valid analogy. I wasn't the one to frame that debate.

Actually, the analogy is perfectly valid for cigarettes because embedded in the cost of each pack of cigarettes is the tobacco settlement. Both the tobacco settlement payments and red-light tickets are civil, right?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 10, 2012, 02:02:27 AM
I'm specifically claiming that the contracts for the red-light systems are structured on a revenue-sharing basis.

How much revenue are they "sharing" and in what circumstances?

You are simply wrong there. If the topic was that which was "randomly or evenly distributed" then it was a perfectly valid analogy. I wasn't the one to frame that debate.

I don't understand how that rejects what I said at all.  In fact, I'm not even sure what you mean.  "If the topic was that which was"?  Frame what debate?

Re-read what I said again: Construing this as "raising taxes on the public by several dollars doesn't really make sense because this isn't a randomly or evenly distributed tax."  In other words, it doesn't affect the public, but rather a subset of the public.  The cigarette analogy is a bit different because that's an explicit tax, not a punitive measure. When you refocused the debate, I just noted that calling this a "tax" doesn't make much sense because it is limited to those who break the red light law (not the public, because breaking the law isn't random/evenly distributed)...those were separate issues which you're confounding now.

Actually, the analogy is perfectly valid for cigarettes because embedded in the cost of each pack of cigarettes is the tobacco settlement. Both the tobacco settlement payments and red-light tickets are civil, right?

Not understanding the significance.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: BigSkyBob on January 10, 2012, 03:01:00 AM
I'm specifically claiming that the contracts for the red-light systems are structured on a revenue-sharing basis.

How much revenue are they "sharing" and in what circumstances?

You are simply wrong there. If the topic was that which was "randomly or evenly distributed" then it was a perfectly valid analogy. I wasn't the one to frame that debate.

I don't understand how that rejects what I said at all.  In fact, I'm not even sure what you mean.  "If the topic was that which was"?  Frame what debate?

Re-read what I said again: Construing this as "raising taxes on the public by several dollars doesn't really make sense because this isn't a randomly or evenly distributed tax."  In other words, it doesn't affect the public, but rather a subset of the public.  The cigarette analogy is a bit different because that's an explicit tax, not a punitive measure.

Now, you are the one not making any sense. If something is not a "tax," then doesn't it immediately follow that that thing is not a "randomly or evenly distributed tax?"

Quote
When you refocused the debate, I just noted that calling this a "tax" doesn't make much sense because it is limited to those who break the red light law (not the public, because breaking the law isn't random/evenly distributed)...those were separate issues which you're confounding now.

Actually, the analogy is perfectly valid for cigarettes because embedded in the cost of each pack of cigarettes is the tobacco settlement. Both the tobacco settlement payments and red-light tickets are civil, right?

Not understanding the significance.

Traffic tickets are civil fines. The tobacco settlement was a civil judgment. People whom run red lights are subject to a punitive fine. Those that smoke pay the punitive civil judgment embedded in the cost of a pack of cigarettes. The analogy is nearly perfect.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 10, 2012, 07:58:49 PM
Bob, I may very well not be making sense, so I'm going to elect to respond to your post once I'm less sleep deprived.

In other news, in what I think is a pleasant surprise, Sen. Cheryl Pflug (R-Maple Valley) has become the second Senate Republican to pledge a "yes" vote on gay marriage.  I didn't entirely expect this, since Pflug hasn't had a consistent record on less controversial LBGT issues, and her new district is substantially more socially conservative than her last.  Pflug also explicitly opposes a referendum clause (again, surprised.)

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorials/2017205198_edit11pflug.html#.TwzbmAJdq_A.facebook

Apparently, every pro-gay Republican gets their very own custom Seattle Times editorial hug.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 10, 2012, 10:00:12 PM
Bob, I may very well not be making sense, so I'm going to elect to respond to your post once I'm less sleep deprived.

In other news, in what I think is a pleasant surprise, Sen. Cheryl Pflug (R-Maple Valley) has become the second Senate Republican to pledge a "yes" vote on gay marriage.  I didn't entirely expect this, since Pflug hasn't had a consistent record on less controversial LBGT issues, and her new district is substantially more socially conservative than her last.  Pflug also explicitly opposes a referendum clause (again, surprised.)

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorials/2017205198_edit11pflug.html#.TwzbmAJdq_A.facebook

Apparently, every pro-gay Republican gets their very own custom Seattle Times editorial hug.

That's the Seattle Times for you...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 11, 2012, 02:28:17 AM
Awesome! Things are actually looking much better than I ever would have dreamed.. Though that also makes me nervous to a certain degree. Are there any democrats we should be worried about who should be yes votes?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on January 11, 2012, 03:45:39 AM
Awesome! Things are actually looking much better than I ever would have dreamed.. Though that also makes me nervous to a certain degree. Are there any democrats we should be worried about who should be yes votes?

Placed in the context of the previous domestic partnership debate, several seats changed from Democratic to Republican senators (4). 30 senators voted for domestic partnerships (27 D, 3 R). So assuming that everyone votes the same except the changed seats, the vote would be 26-24. However of the Republicans who supported it, Curtis King of Yakima already stated his opposition, Brandland has been replaced by Ericksen who is also opposed. Pflug has stated her full support, but this would place the numbers at only 24-26.

Then Litzow stated his support, bringing it up to 25-25.

But Haugen wants a referendum, so without her support we are back to 24-26.

Thus, Andy Hill, Joe Fain, or one of the Democrats who were against domestic partnerships needs to support the bill for passage w/o a referendum.
But if Haugen has her way a referendum will be necessary.

I'm also nervous about Steve Conway (D-29) because he is new and from a district that I don't think supported R-71. Besides Conway, Kastama, Eide, and Hobbs are uncertain votes.

We will have to wait and see how those 5 above Democrats decide to vote because unless another Republican comes out to support the marriage bill this may be tough.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 11, 2012, 04:14:47 AM
^ There are 49 Senate seats, not 50.

If we start with the 27-22 partisan breakdown, subtract the four anti-equality Democrats (Hatfield, Sheldon, Hargrove, Shinn), we're down to 23 in favor. Subtract swing voter Haugen and it's 22. Add pro-equality Republicans Litzow and Pflug and we're up to 24... So we'll need to get Haugen or one of the Republicans you mentioned for that 25th vote.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 11, 2012, 03:23:19 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2017211173_apwaxgrgaymarriage1stldwritethru.html

According to the AP, Democratic yes-leaners are Rosemary McAuliffe (D-Bothell) Karen Fraser (D-Olympia), both of whom I didn't even realize were undecided (Fraser?  Seriously?)  All of the "purely undecided" Democrats the AP got a hold of opposed domestic partnerships last time: Brian Hatfield (D-Raymond), Jim Kastama (D-Puyallup) and Paull Shin (D-unspellable/Edmonds).

The AP finds two undecided Republicans, which are -- unsurprisingly -- Andy Hill (R-Redmond) and Joe Fain (R-Auburn).

They also note that "two Democrats are among the 18 declared 'no' votes on the gay marriage proposal," which must be Tim Sheldon (D-Potlatch) and possibly Jim Hargrove (D-Hoquiam), who'd previously been vague at a town hall.

If Hatfield, Kastama, Shin, Hill and Fain are all in play, I'd be surprised if this fails.  I just can't see McAuliffe and especially Fraser (whose constituents would castigate her) voting "no."


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 11, 2012, 03:28:57 PM
Needs 25

Strong Yes 18 (-1)
Lean Yes 7 (+2)
Unknown 4 (+1)
Lean No 1 (-2)
Strong No 19 (nc)

Yes 25 (+1)
Unknown 4 (+1)
No 20 (-2)

My personal guesstimate as of now:

Yes 27 (+2)
No 22 (-2)

Strong Yes
Brown (D-Spokane)
Chase (D-Edmonds)
Conway (D-Tacoma)
Frockt (D-Seattle)
Harper (D-Everett)
Keiser (D-Olympia)
Kline (D-Seattle)
Kohl-Welles (D-Seattle)
Litzow (R-Mercer Island)
Murray (D-Seattle)
Nelson (D-Seattle)
Pflug (R-Maple Valley)
Prentice (D-Renton)
Pridemore (D-Vancouver)
Ranker (D-Friday Harbor)
Regala (D-Tacoma)
Rolfes (D-Bainbridge Island)
Tom (D-Medina)

Lean Yes
Eide (D-Federal Way) - AP count data pending
Fraser (D-Olympia)
Haugen (D-Camano Island) - With referendum clause only
Hobbs (D-Lake Stevens) - AP count data pending
Kastama (D-Puyallup)
Kilmer (D-Gig Harbor) - Personally think he's a solid "Yes"; AP count data pending
McAuliffe (D-Bothell)

Unknown
Fain (R-Auburn)
Hatfield (D-Raymond)
Hill (R-Redmond)
Shin (D-Edmonds)

Lean No
Hargrove (D-Hoquiam) - AP count data pending

Strong No
Baumgartner (R-Spokane)
Becker (R-Eatonville)
Benton (R-Vancouver)
Carrell (R-Lakewood)
Delvin (R-Richland)
Ericksen (R-Ferndale)
Hewitt (R-Walla Walla)
Holmquist Newbry (R-Moses Lake)
Honeyford (R-Sunnyside)
King (R-Yakima)
Morton (R-Orient)
Padden (R-Spokane Valley)
Parlette (R-Wenatchee)
Roach (R-Auburn)
Schoesler (R-Ritzville)
Sheldon (D-Potlatch)
Stevens (R-Arlington)
Swecker (R-Rochester)
Zarelli (R-Ridgefield)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 11, 2012, 06:50:15 PM
Updates based on AP count here (http://mynorthwest.com/174/608624/Glance-How-Wash-senators-view-gay-marriage).  Confusingly, the article listed Karen Fraser (D-Olympia) as undecided while this says Strong Yes.  I'm checking for a clarification.

The article confirms probable supporters have committed: Tracey Eide (D-Federal Way), Steve Hobbs (D-Lake Stevens) and Derek Kilmer (D-Gig Harbor).  It also confirms that likely opponent Jim Hargrove (D-Hoquiam) is now committed against.

On the other hand, surprise Republicans are apparently in play: Doug Ericksen (R-Ferndale) and Linda Evans Parlette (R-Wenatchee), both of whom are noncommittal.  Ericksen said he "didn't know" and has "no opinion," while Parlette was noncommittal but wants a vote of the people if it passes.

That leaves us with:

Strong Yes 21 (19 D, 2 R)
Lean Yes 2 (2 D)
Toss-up/Unknown 8 (4 D, 4 R)
Lean No 0
Strong No 18 (2 D, 16 R)

In-play:

Lean Yes
Fraser (D-Olympia) ??
McAuliffe (D-Bothell)

Undecided - Want to talk to constituents
Fain (R-Auburn)
Hill (R-Redmond)
Kastama (D-Puyallup)

Undecided - Grappling personally/Don't want to talk about it
Ericksen (R-Ferndale)
Hatfield (D-Raymond)
Shin (D-Edmonds)

Undecided - Won't support anything that doesn't allow a vote of the people
Haugen (D-Camano Island)
Parlette (R-Wenatchee)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on January 11, 2012, 07:33:14 PM
Shin is LDS, which does not bode well for his support although his constituents likely are supportive.

Sorry I forgot the number of districts in WA. Silly me.

Also, do we know how the LD's voted on R-71?



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 11, 2012, 08:20:10 PM
Shin is LDS, which does not bode well for his support although his constituents likely are supportive.

He is, but like all the other undecideds save for Haugen and the yes-leaners, these are people with no apparent history of supporting LGBT civil unions/domestic partnerships.  In other words, he's claiming to be reconsidering the issue.  I think it's a sign for some tepid optimism, at least.

Also, do we know how the LD's voted on R-71?

Fraser (D-Olympia-22nd): 63-37 Approved
Hill (R-Redmond-45th): 60-40 Approved
Shinn (D-Edmonds-21st): 57-43 Approved
McAuliffe (D-Bothell-1st): 55-45 Approved
Haugen (D-Camano Island-10th): 51-49 Approved
Fain (R-Auburn-47th): 49-51 Rejected
Ericksen (R-Ferndale-42nd): 48-52 Rejected
Hatfield (D-Raymond-19th): 46-54 Rejected
Kastama (D-Puyallup-25th): 42-58 Rejected (but running for higher office)
Parlette (R-Wenatchee-12th): 38-62 Rejected


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on January 11, 2012, 08:47:24 PM
I'd be verry surprised if Hill votes no, 60-40 for domestic partnership? That's a certain pass for gay marriage too. Much less certain for Fain, but if Erikson or Parlette are considering..... Who knows. It's really interesting to watch!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 11, 2012, 09:45:05 PM
http://www.theolympian.com/2012/01/11/1945143/mckenna-is-still-a-no-on-same.html#storylink=cpy

Sen. Fraser (D-Olympia) is committed Yes; earlier reports were in error.  The committed vote is now 22-18 Yes, with 1 yes-leaning Democrat, Rosemary McAuliffe (D-Bothell).

In essence, "yes" supporters need 2 of these 8 self-reported undecideds:

Sen. Doug Ericksen (R-Ferndale)
Sen. Joe Fain (R-Auburn)
Sen. Brian Hatfield (D-Raymond)
Sen. Andy Hill (R-Redmond)
Sen. Mary Margaret Haugen (D-Camano Island)
Sen. Jim Kastama (D-Puyallup)
Sen. Linda Evans Parlette (R-Wenatchee)
Sen. Paull Shin (D-Edmonds)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on January 11, 2012, 10:49:14 PM
If that is where things stand, I feel optimistic we will pass marriage equality.  We may even be able to do it without a referendum clause.  I think Hill is very gettable on this issue -- if he needs to talk with his constituents first, the message from them should be clear given that district's vote on R-71.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on January 11, 2012, 11:45:42 PM
Am I missing something here? Doesn't Brad Owen get to vote on this if it's a tie?  Or is that not somehow not case with the Washington state lieutenant governor?  Should we be talking about him?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on January 11, 2012, 11:54:53 PM
Am I missing something here? Doesn't Brad Owen get to vote on this if it's a tie?  Or is that not somehow not case with the Washington state lieutenant governor?  Should we be talking about him?
For now, no, since it looks like the vote is essentially 23-18, and the issue needs just two more votes to pass, which I suspect would come from Kastama and Hill, and Haugen if she gets her way.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 12, 2012, 12:07:16 AM
The State Senate also has an odd number of members, making ties more rare.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: HST1948 on January 12, 2012, 12:37:10 AM
This is all very exciting indeed! Does anybody have an idea of when a vote will be held? I remember when Cuomo and the Senate were trying to hammer out the details of the bill and garner support in my state... the vote kept getting delayed for what seemed like weeks... it was agonizing.  

Oh and what's the deal with the referendum on this? Will there be one? Sorry if I'm asking questions that have been answered before... I joined the thread a little late in the game.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on January 12, 2012, 12:47:53 AM
If it passed, there will almost certainly be a referendum.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on January 12, 2012, 12:51:11 AM
The State Senate also has an odd number of members, making ties more rare.

So what type of scenarios allow for an odd-numbered legislative chamber to have a tie vote? Member(s) missing/dead or voting 'abstain/present/etc'?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on January 12, 2012, 01:06:27 AM
The State Senate also has an odd number of members, making ties more rare.

So what type of scenarios allow for an odd-numbered legislative chamber to have a tie vote? Member(s) missing/dead or voting 'abstain/present/etc'?
Im guessing an abstain/sick/death scenario is the only way.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on January 12, 2012, 01:10:50 AM
Oh and what's the deal with the referendum on this? Will there be one? Sorry if I'm asking questions that have been answered before... I joined the thread a little late in the game.

Some legislators want a referendum clause included in the legislation.  But even if one is not included, there will almost certainly be a referendum vote on marriage later by gathering signatures for it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 12, 2012, 02:06:50 AM
If it passed, there will almost certainly be a referendum.

Yes, which is why the Haugen position makes no sense to me.  Her issue is that she wants to be sure that there's a referendum, which is inevitable, unless there's an emergency clause...which there isn't.

It'll be interesting to see how much Republican crossover there is in the House, which tends to have more of that.  I know Maureen Walsh (R-Seventh Day Adventist College-land) is for it, which is ballsy of her since: 1) She's unneeded; 2) She may get primary-punished for it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on January 12, 2012, 02:19:14 AM
I actually live in Haugen's district, btw. Her district (at least the old one; the new one doesn't look much better) wasn't exactly liberal-leaning outside South Whidbey.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 12, 2012, 02:26:47 AM
I actually live in Haugen's district, btw. Her district (at least the old one; the new one doesn't look much better) wasn't exactly liberal-leaning outside South Whidbey.

A lot of the media coverage also keeps calling the 10th LD "traditionally Republican."  I bet a lot of people locally aren't even aware that it's drifted Democratic and that R-71 passed there.

Do people from your corner of the 10th LD perceive the area as really conservative?  I know a lot of people from Mount Vernon, for instance, who are convinced that the area is really conservative, and that Oak Harbor must completely outvote South Whidbey.  I imagine Haugen is dealing with a lot of conservative activists who are no-compromise because they perceive the 10th LD as hostile to gay rights when it isn't.  Fair assumption?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on January 12, 2012, 02:51:22 AM
I actually live in Haugen's district, btw. Her district (at least the old one; the new one doesn't look much better) wasn't exactly liberal-leaning outside South Whidbey.

A lot of the media coverage also keeps calling the 10th LD "traditionally Republican."  I bet a lot of people locally aren't even aware that it's drifted Democratic and that R-71 passed there.

Do people from your corner of the 10th LD perceive the area as really conservative?  I know a lot of people from Mount Vernon, for instance, who are convinced that the area is really conservative, and that Oak Harbor must completely outvote South Whidbey.  I imagine Haugen is dealing with a lot of conservative activists who are no-compromise because they perceive the 10th LD as hostile to gay rights when it isn't.  Fair assumption?

The area is traditionally Republican, but not by a whole lot. It's mostly due to the relatively rural nature of the district (farmlands in the Stilliguamish Valley and Mount Vernon areas, forests and rednecks elsewhere) plus the military presence on Whidbey, but they don't seem radibly conservative or anything like that. Where I am seems more economically conservative than socially, but then again my neighborhood is a bit weathier than the district at large (near the Lake Goodwin area) though that isn't saying much.

The area does seem to be changing a bit. It seems like it's developing a lot more and becoming a bit more exurban in a strange way. Part of it is Camano Island, which has been trending toward the Democrats on social issues pretty quickly as it gets more affluent. The northern parts of the new district, like Mt. Vernon and Anacortes always struck me as working class Aberdeen-esque towns (with Hispanics in Mt. Vernon's case), with Burlington being exurban strip mall land. Skagit County did vote for R-71, but I'm not sure why (I haven't looked into precinct data or anything), so it must not be that populist of an area.

Truthfully, I don't have much reason to go up further north than Stanwood that often, so my impressions might be a bit outdated of that area. I certainly wouldn't call it very conservative; even by Western Washington standards it isn't as bad as Lewis County or anything like that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on January 12, 2012, 03:23:26 AM
I made a map of R-71 by precinct in Skagit County in case anyone was curious to see how it voted on the issue.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 12, 2012, 03:36:10 AM
The area is traditionally Republican, but not by a whole lot. It's mostly due to the relatively rural nature of the district (farmlands in the Stilliguamish Valley and Mount Vernon areas, forests and rednecks elsewhere) plus the military presence on Whidbey, but they don't seem radibly conservative or anything like that. Where I am seems more economically conservative than socially, but then again my neighborhood is a bit weathier than the district at large (near the Lake Goodwin area) though that isn't saying much.

The area does seem to be changing a bit. It seems like it's developing a lot more and becoming a bit more exurban in a strange way. Part of it is Camano Island, which has been trending toward the Democrats on social issues pretty quickly as it gets more affluent. The northern parts of the new district, like Mt. Vernon and Anacortes always struck me as working class Aberdeen-esque towns (with Hispanics in Mt. Vernon's case), with Burlington being exurban strip mall land. Skagit County did vote for R-71, but I'm not sure why (I haven't looked into precinct data or anything), so it must not be that populist of an area.

Truthfully, I don't have much reason to go up further north than Stanwood that often, so my impressions might be a bit outdated of that area. I certainly wouldn't call it very conservative; even by Western Washington standards it isn't as bad as Lewis County or anything like that.

That helps a lot!  The only parts of the 10th I haven't been to are Camano Island and your area, so that was about what I needed to know :P

From what I remember R-71, it won Skagit County because of strong performances around the water areas, plus Anacortes and Mount Vernon, and especially La Conner.  The farming areas were not nearly as bad (they were very pro-gay around La Conner)...maybe hippie farmers.  Either way, interesting place.  And for better or worse, I can see why people are moving there, it's pretty beautiful country.

Edit: Yeah, Jackson, I'd love to see that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on January 12, 2012, 03:40:55 AM
Here it is.

()

Sorry about the water-including precinct boundaries, by the way.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 12, 2012, 04:11:54 AM
Thanks!  And not your fault on the boundaries - Shapefile maker's fault.

Here's an annotated version:

()

Basically, it passed due to coastal areas, hippies, La Conner, a good showing in Mount Vernon, a close loss in Burlington (despite so much red there), and unusually mixed rural areas.  It seems like there are an unusual number of progressive farmers in the Skagit for Washington state.  Dodge Valley (the rural Approve >70% area around La Conner) is crazy liberal despite being almost all farms.

I think that's about right...

Anyway, Haugen's new district is gaining some conservative areas on the other side of I-5 from Stanwood.  However, I'm pretty sure the new district was still about 50/50.  Haugen's position doesn't make much sense, but it's probably not politically motivated, and I doubt her district would punish her for this.  (Although she did only win by 8 points in 2010, so who knows...but I trust her honesty.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 12, 2012, 04:15:17 AM
My observation of Mt. Vernon based solely on driving through on I-5 a bunch: "Il Granaio" whoa well aren't you guys hip!? Oooooh, tulips on an old smokestack. Edgy.

No surprise they're liberals! :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 12, 2012, 04:24:49 AM
My observation of Mt. Vernon based solely on driving through on I-5 a bunch: "Il Granaio" whoa well aren't you guys hip!? Oooooh, tulips on an old smokestack. Edgy.

No surprise they're liberals! :P

It's, like, 20% hardcore redneck, 20% crunchy granola type, 20% Mexican.  Seems like a pretty fantastic place.  I like to imagine that the local politics are hilarious.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on January 12, 2012, 04:27:03 AM
My observation of Mt. Vernon based solely on driving through on I-5 a bunch: "Il Granaio" whoa well aren't you guys hip!? Oooooh, tulips on an old smokestack. Edgy.

No surprise they're liberals! :P

It's, like, 20% hardcore redneck, 20% crunchy granola type, 20% Mexican.  Seems like a pretty fantastic place.  I like to imagine that the local politics are hilarious.

Doesn't Mt. Vernon have that conservative racist mayor who is a huge supporter of Glen Beck (whose hometown is Mt. Vernon)?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 12, 2012, 04:41:22 AM
My observation of Mt. Vernon based solely on driving through on I-5 a bunch: "Il Granaio" whoa well aren't you guys hip!? Oooooh, tulips on an old smokestack. Edgy.

No surprise they're liberals! :P

It's, like, 20% hardcore redneck, 20% crunchy granola type, 20% Mexican.  Seems like a pretty fantastic place.  I like to imagine that the local politics are hilarious.

Doesn't Mt. Vernon have that conservative racist mayor who is a huge supporter of Glen Beck (whose hometown is Mt. Vernon)?

Did, at least ostensibly.  Apparently, in addition to being big on English only and Glenn Beck (whatever), he opposed a tequila and taco place because the former tenant of the building had too many 911 calls even though they didn't (http://www.goskagit.com/news/article_deefc4b2-ce0e-11e0-8d25-001cc4c002e0.html).  Because, you know, the building must be haunted.  He also fought over a library who dared put up a sign that included the word "biblioteca."  He decided not to run for a third term.

Their new mayor, despite looking pretty stereotypically liberal to me (http://www.goskagit.com/news/local_news/article_6d1257fc-14d0-11e1-be62-001cc4c03286.html), is apparently a Republican, but was endorsed by the Skagit Young Dems.  Maybe local politics there aren't as colorful as I'd hoped :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on January 12, 2012, 06:37:37 AM
Why, Sedro Woolley?  Why?   :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 12, 2012, 04:15:35 PM
DelBene officially got in today.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 12, 2012, 06:04:42 PM
We need a title update! It's not 2011 anymore. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 12, 2012, 06:23:17 PM
Can someone come up with something clever about gays, budgets and/or special sessions?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on January 12, 2012, 06:40:26 PM
DelBene is in for WA-01. (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2017221232_suzan_delbene_jumps_into_1st_c.html)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 12, 2012, 09:04:42 PM
Sen. Haugen (D-Camano Island), previously committed (at least apparently) to voting against any bill lacking a referendum, seems to be reconsidering.  Her latest official statement on gay marriage:

Quote
I’m listening to all sides and keeping an open mind. I feel the best option is to send it to the voters on a referendum, but I’m still hearing from constituents and I want them to have full opportunity to make their views known.

...

Haugen spokesman Rick Manugian says that Haugen "will spend the coming weeks hearing from constituents and will have no further comment on the issue until she has reached a final decision."

No new news otherwise, besides that Kastama is "researching states that have legalized gay marriage." (uh-huh.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 13, 2012, 01:32:52 AM
I still don't know the difference between a Caucus Jurisdiction Coordinator and an Area Caucus Coordinator :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 13, 2012, 01:43:22 AM
New title


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 13, 2012, 06:03:50 PM
Here's the Senate marriage equality bill: http://apps.leg.wa.gov/billinfo/summary.aspx?bill=6239

23 sponsors so they only need two more...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 13, 2012, 07:49:07 PM
When did Cheryl Pflug become such a bleeding-heart?  Apparently, when this was announced in the legislative priority meeting, the rest of the GOP caucus was dead silent while she applauded loudly.

Looks like McAuliffe is off the undecided table considering she's a sponsor.

No House Bill equivalent yet?  I'd thought that was going to be filed first.

Edit: Apparently literally filed while I was looking it up (http://dlr.leg.wa.gov/billsummary/default.aspx?Bill=1963&year=2011).  43 sponsors but no Republicans; looks like they're being less aggressive about that in the House (I know Maureen Walsh is a committed Republican vote)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 13, 2012, 07:51:44 PM
I really can't see Kastama voting "No" given his Secretary of State aspirations. Democrats statewide would be furious if he was one of the reasons why the bill didn't pass.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on January 13, 2012, 07:59:23 PM
State Supreme Court Justice Tom Chambers is retiring:

http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/High-Court-Justice-Chambers-won-t-seek-third-term-2513759.php (http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/High-Court-Justice-Chambers-won-t-seek-third-term-2513759.php)

Ladenburg and King County Superior Court Judge Bruce Hilyer are first out of the gate to announce they are running for the seat.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on January 13, 2012, 08:24:40 PM
So what happens to all the domestic partnerships if (once?) gay marriage becomes legal? Are they automatically converted into marriages?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 14, 2012, 01:45:03 AM
So what happens to all the domestic partnerships if (once?) gay marriage becomes legal? Are they automatically converted into marriages?

I believe the same-sex ones are... the law retains the domestic partnerships for seniors though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on January 14, 2012, 03:14:14 AM
So what do our Washington posters think the overall odds on this passing look like?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 14, 2012, 04:28:35 AM
Patty Murray came out in support of gay marriage!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on January 14, 2012, 06:00:55 AM
This is going smoother than I expected. I'm pretty optimistic it will pass.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on January 14, 2012, 03:32:05 PM
Patty Murray came out in support of gay marriage!

Yes!!!!   :D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on January 14, 2012, 07:05:13 PM
So what do our Washington posters think the overall odds on this passing look like?

My completely unscientific, subjective political sense would put the odds of marriage equality passing at 80%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on January 14, 2012, 07:12:43 PM

She said she was "proud" of the marriage equality bill.  It's worth noting that there is now consensus from all of Washington State's top Democratic politicians:  Gregoire, Inslee, Cantwell and Murray all support marriage equality.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: HST1948 on January 14, 2012, 11:16:31 PM

She said she was "proud" of the marriage equality bill.  It's worth noting that there is now consensus from all of Washington State's top Democratic politicians:  Gregoire, Inslee, Cantwell and Murray all support marriage equality.

As a side note, I think that this means that every west coast senator and governor (in the continental US) now supports Gay marriage.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 16, 2012, 04:30:19 PM
Quote
M.L.King Day: Snow showers likely, mainly before 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35. South southwest wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Tonight: Snow showers likely, mainly after 10pm. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 33. South southwest wind between 5 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tuesday: Snow showers. Steady temperature around 33. Southwest wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tuesday Night: Snow. Low around 27. West southwest wind 7 to 10 mph becoming north northeast. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Wednesday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 34. Northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Happy Snowpocolypse, Washingtonians!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on January 16, 2012, 04:38:08 PM
Quote
M.L.King Day: Snow showers likely, mainly before 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35. South southwest wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Tonight: Snow showers likely, mainly after 10pm. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 33. South southwest wind between 5 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tuesday: Snow showers. Steady temperature around 33. Southwest wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tuesday Night: Snow. Low around 27. West southwest wind 7 to 10 mph becoming north northeast. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Wednesday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 34. Northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Happy Snowpocolypse, Washingtonians!

:D ;D :)



We already got a couple inches here,  and it's still going!  :D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on January 16, 2012, 04:50:36 PM
For once, it's actually not snowing over here in the east, while the westside is getting hammered. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on January 16, 2012, 05:35:04 PM

Still not snowing. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on January 17, 2012, 04:00:41 AM
Weather.com Lol.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 17, 2012, 02:25:36 PM
The snow forecast has always been loaded toward tonight through tomorrow afternoon...they weren't predicting more than an inch or two tonight and today.

It looks like we're scaling back to about 3-8", though.  Maybe that will become a trend and we'll get nothing.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 17, 2012, 02:40:42 PM
SUSA poll:

http://www.king5.com/news/up-front/polls/KINg-5-poll-Voters-like-McKenna-for-budget-Inslee-on-environment-137457278.html

McKenna 46%
Inslee 43%

44-35 McKenna on state budget
40-35 McKenna on education
43-40 Inslee on social issues
45-30 Inslee on environment


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on January 17, 2012, 03:32:15 PM
Why hasn't anyone polled Washington on the Republican caucuses at all this cycle? :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on January 17, 2012, 03:49:27 PM
Why hasn't anyone polled Washington on the Republican caucuses at all this cycle? :(

They know Paul will win it?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 17, 2012, 07:46:52 PM
Why hasn't anyone polled Washington on the Republican caucuses at all this cycle? :(

They know Paul will win it?

Actually for the Washington State Republican Caucus they just roll a dice and then declare a winner. As we know from 2008 actual counting is not needed.

Although on a side note I do think that Paul could have a very real chance in Washington, I think on the state level the party has been slowly becoming more and more libertarian.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 17, 2012, 07:49:49 PM
I think it would depend on how many candidates are still running at that point... Paul winning is far from a sure thing either way, though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on January 17, 2012, 07:56:11 PM
I wish I had someone to throw snowballs at.  :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on January 17, 2012, 09:27:47 PM
The snow forecast has always been loaded toward tonight through tomorrow afternoon...they weren't predicting more than an inch or two tonight and today.

It looks like we're scaling back to about 3-8", though.  Maybe that will become a trend and we'll get nothing.
As a weather nerd.... I'd say if you are north of Everett you wont get more than an inch or two... Seattle like 5-9 inches, 10+ South of Tacoma.

Anyway, Im EXCITED. Way more interesting than politics. :P



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on January 18, 2012, 12:20:38 AM
That is unfortunately incorrect, as I am currently north of Everett and we've had over two inches of snowfall already. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 18, 2012, 01:16:25 AM
Meanwhile in Spokane we have less than an inch on the ground.... Oh how the tables have turned.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on January 18, 2012, 11:43:15 AM
Meanwhile in Spokane we have less than an inch on the ground.... Oh how the tables have turned.

Yep. It's not very exciting here.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 18, 2012, 02:57:44 PM
We ended up with like 6-8".  Looks like the snow tapered off the farther north you got of about Centralia.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 18, 2012, 06:31:33 PM
House companion bill for marriage equality has been posted. It has 50 co-sponsors so it's guaranteed passage.

Only one Republican - Rep. Maureen Walsh (16th LD) - sponsored it.

Democrats who did not sponsor it:

Rep. Tim Probst (17th LD)
Rep. Brian Blake (19th LD)
Rep. Tami Green (28th LD)
Rep. Troy Kelley (28th LD)
Rep. Steve Kirby (29th LD)
Rep. Mark Miloscia (30th LD)
Rep. Chris Hurst (31st LD)

Only headscratcher there is Kirby.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 18, 2012, 06:55:47 PM
Words fail. In short: Rep. Glenn Anderson (R-5th LD) is also supporting marriage equality but is insane.

http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/2012/01/18/rep-glenn-anderson-backs-same-sex-marriage-after-research-into-code-of-hammurabi-council-of-trent-emperor-justinian/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on January 18, 2012, 07:45:35 PM
So what happens to all the domestic partnerships if (once?) gay marriage becomes legal? Are they automatically converted into marriages?

Answering my own question here: http://www.kimatv.com/news/local/Washington-House-introduces-same-sex-marriage-bill-137525018.html

Quote
Under the bills being considered by the Legislature, people currently registered in domestic partnerships would have two years to either dissolve their relationship or get married. Domestic partnerships that aren't ended prior to June 30, 2014, would automatically become marriages.
 
Domestic partnerships would remain for senior couples in which at least one partner is 62 years old or older. That provision was included by lawmakers in 2007 to help seniors who don't remarry out of fear they could lose certain pension or Social Security benefits.

Words fail. In short: Rep. Glenn Anderson (R-5th LD) is also supporting marriage equality but is insane.

http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/2012/01/18/rep-glenn-anderson-backs-same-sex-marriage-after-research-into-code-of-hammurabi-council-of-trent-emperor-justinian/

lol


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 18, 2012, 09:15:34 PM
As ridiculous as this is for a public statement (the Code of Hammurabi? hahah), that is really an impeccably reasoned and unusually thoughtful justification for voting for legislation.  Almost every word of it is 100% right too.

I have another person who I can like more than Brad Owen!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 18, 2012, 11:09:44 PM
Undecided Sen. Jim Kastama (D-Puyallup) is having a press conference tomorrow to announce his vote.

http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/Undecided-WA-Dem-to-announce-vote-on-gay-marriage-2613506.php

No Gregoire-y insider information here:  he's keeping his announcement secret.

That said, if he announces a vote against it, that would be pretty bizarre, in my opinion.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 19, 2012, 03:22:06 AM
NOM fires a "we'll primary you" warning shot against openly undecided Republicans Sen. Andy Hill (R-Redmond) and Sen. Joe Fain (R-Auburn):

http://publicola.com/2012/01/18/jolt-anti-gay-marriage-group-threatens-republicans-who-vote-for-equality-bill/

Hard to imagine Hill really need be that intimidated by a primary challenge, but Fain's district has more conservative Republicans...however, I think this would be vastly more concerning to the uncommitted-but-not-openly-undecided Republicans, Sen. Linda Evans Parlette (R-Wenatchee) and Sen. Doug Ericksen (R-Ferndale).

***

Over at a town hall in the fairly gay-friendly Skagit County community of Bayview, Rep. Mary Margaret Haugen (D-Camano Island) will still "consider it."  No explicit hints she's budging, though.  Meanwhile, in her district, the city council of uber-liberal Langley is set to endorse the effort.

http://www.whidbeyexaminer.com/main.asp?SectionID=1&SubSectionID=1&ArticleID=7174
http://www.southwhidbeyrecord.com/news/137381598.html

***

No new news otherwise.  The undecideds I didn't mention remain Sen. Brian Hatfield (D-Raymond) and Sen. Paull Shin (D-Edmonds).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 19, 2012, 03:16:09 PM
Sen. Kastama (D-Puyallup) is a "Yes."  The effort is now one vote shy.

http://mynorthwest.com/174/607126/Wash-Senate-now-1-vote-short-on-gay-marriage

***

Also, today the "Yes" side received endorsements from Microsoft, Concur, Group Health, Nike, RealNetworks and Vulcan Inc.

http://blogs.technet.com/b/microsoft_blog/archive/2012/01/19/marriage-equality-in-washington-state-would-be-good-for-business.aspx

***

And a SurveyUSA poll has gay marriage up only 47%-46%

http://www.king5.com/news/local/KING-5-poll-State-divided-over-gay-marriage-137689348.html

Quote
A new KING 5 poll finds Washington state voters are very divided on the issue of gay marriage.

In a poll of 617 registered voters statewide on landlines and cell phones, KING 5 and SurveyUSA asked specifically, “If the legislature were to approve marriage for same-sex couples, and you were asked to approve or reject the law, how would you vote?”
In our poll, 47% said they would approve the law, while 46% said they would reject it; 7% said they weren’t sure.  The poll has a margin of +/-4%.

Gay marriage supporters are trying to pass a bill through the legislature during this session, but have not secured enough votes in the state senate.  Opponents say if the legislature were to pass a bill, they would collect signatures to force a referendum on the issue.

In the poll, younger voters were far more likely to support gay marriage with 50% saying they’d approve a measure, compared to 39% support among voters over age 65.  While voters in the King, Pierce and Snohomish County region voiced 50% support for a bill, voters in eastern Washington rejected the idea 54% to 38%.

The poll also found women voters more inclined to approve gay marriage (52% to 41% reject) than men (43% to 52% reject).

Not a very good result.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on January 19, 2012, 03:32:21 PM
Words fail. In short: Rep. Glenn Anderson (R-5th LD) is also supporting marriage equality but is insane.

http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/2012/01/18/rep-glenn-anderson-backs-same-sex-marriage-after-research-into-code-of-hammurabi-council-of-trent-emperor-justinian/

     Perhaps it's a parody of the Magna Carta bill introduced in the NH State Legislature.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on January 19, 2012, 06:07:00 PM
What are Hill, Fain, Parlette, Ericksen, Hatfield, and Shin like, and what are the chances of at least a couple of them coming down as Yes?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on January 19, 2012, 07:34:04 PM
I don't know why Parlette and Ericksen are undecided because they both seem like opposition.

Shin represents a supportive constituency but is Mormon (but he's a Democrat).

Hill also represents a very supportive constituency but is a Republican

Fain is a less sure vote and I think his LD might have voted against R-71 (he's also a Republican).

Hatfield is a Democrat of a more working class district that also voted against R-71, but he seems rather open-minded about this despite voting against domestic partnerships. Supposedly he's become more religious over the past few years too.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 19, 2012, 07:51:34 PM
What are Hill, Fain, Parlette, Ericksen, Hatfield, and Shin like, and what are the chances of at least a couple of them coming down as Yes?

Joe Fain (R-Auburn) - Freshman from exurban King County, "talking to constituents."  His district leans slightly conservative, but he's young (31) and has taken socially liberal votes on LGBT-related issues so far.  I'd say 60% odds of a "Yes."

Brian Hatfield (D-Raymond) - A conservative Democrat from working-class coastal Washington, which leans slightly right on gay issues.  Also a recently serious Christian.  He's traditionally opposed LGBT issues, but is...going through self-discovery or something.  I'd say 50% odds.

Mary Margaret Haugen (D-Camano Island) - Older Catholic lady, social moderate.  Initially refused to considering anything without a referendum clause.  Kind of a confusing position since a referendum is inevitable.  Recently, after a series of town halls where old lesbians frowned at her, she's become more amenable to the current bill.  I'd say 55% odds.

Andy Hill (R-Redmond) - Socially moderate freshman from Microsoftland is also "talking to constituents."  His district is gay-friendly, and Microsoft is supportive.  A primary challenge is unlikely to be an issue for him.  I'd say 65% odds.

Paull Shin (D-Edmonds) - Although from a pro-gay district, he's a traditional Mormon, with a history of opposing LGBT rights.  Basically like Hatfield, but from a more liberal district.  I'd say 55% odds.

The other two undecideds, Linda Evans Parlette (R-Wenatchee) and Doug Ericksen (R-Ferndale) seem like incredibly unlikely "Yes"es.  I'd say 15% odds each.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on January 19, 2012, 11:27:51 PM
However, wasn't Ericksen's district like only 52-48 Yes on R71?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 20, 2012, 01:40:55 PM
+1 gay marriage and +9 Cantwell seems like an outlier to me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 23, 2012, 03:47:33 PM
Sen. Mary Margaret Haugen (D-Camano Island) is a "Yes," meaning that gay marriage has the 25 votes needed to pass.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/23/washington-gay-marriage_n_1224397.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on January 23, 2012, 07:51:12 PM
This is awesome.

I wonder what the rest of the undecideds will do. I'm pretty sure most will end up on the No side, but Hill, Hatfield, or Fain might vote yes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on January 23, 2012, 07:53:19 PM
Exciting.

bgwah, when you say that the poll seems like an outlier, do you mean that you'd expect a higher number for gay marriage and a lower number for Cantwell, higher numbers for both, or something else?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 23, 2012, 07:55:58 PM
When can we expect a vote?

Exciting.

bgwah, when you say that the poll seems like an outlier, do you mean that you'd expect a higher number for gay marriage and a lower number for Cantwell, higher numbers for both, or something else?

I'd have expected better numbers for both, especially gay marriage.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on January 23, 2012, 08:47:37 PM
When this inevitably goes to a referendum, what is the likelihood of gay marriage being legalized in Washington state? 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 23, 2012, 10:06:28 PM
When this inevitably goes to a referendum, what is the likelihood of gay marriage being legalized in Washington state? 

I think likelier than not, although I want to see how the messaging and polling shapes up in the nascent stage because stuff is all over the place right now.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on January 24, 2012, 01:25:44 AM
Horray!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Tender Branson on January 24, 2012, 02:50:54 AM
Very good to see !

:)

Hopefully both WA and MN voters will uphold the law later this year in their referendums.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 24, 2012, 03:09:25 AM
Whoot!
:)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on January 24, 2012, 07:41:12 AM


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on January 24, 2012, 11:42:13 AM
Quite a few races and issues polled aside from Governor and gay marriage:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3e569851-5364-447f-84cf-4bc6ac6bf688

2-year, 0.5% increase in state sales tax: 58% support, 37% oppose, 6% not sure

2/3 supermajority legislative vote or simple majority legislative referral vote to increase taxes: 54% support, 30% oppose, 15% not sure

Legalize possession of 1-ounce of marijuana, regulate sale/distribution + 25% purchase tax: 51% support, 41% oppose, 8% not sure

Voter approval for ticketing cameras: 62% support, 30% oppose, 8% not sure

State income tax on individ. making $200k+year/families making 400k+year: 56% support, 37% oppose, 8% not sure

Should plastic grocery/retail bags be illegal? 55% legal, 33% illegal, 12% not sure

R-Primary: 26% Romney, 22% Gingrich, 19% Santorum, 7% Paul, 5% Perry, 2% Huntsman, 18% undecided

Gingrich is probably leading in the more recent polls


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 24, 2012, 02:47:44 PM
+19 for state income tax? Pretty sure that's close to the margin it failed by very recently...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 25, 2012, 01:39:54 AM
Why hello good numbers for pot legalization.

Although there are some odd things about that poll (for example Inslee is doing better in W. Washington than Metro Seattle?, or the tax increases are leading?!)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 25, 2012, 02:30:31 AM
Why hello good numbers for pot legalization.

Although there are some odd things about that poll (for example Inslee is doing better in W. Washington than Metro Seattle?, or the tax increases are leading?!)

Yeah, I don't buy the tax increases passing, much less by a landslide.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on January 27, 2012, 02:51:36 AM
In the AG's race, the Washington State Patrol Troopers Association endorsed Bob Ferguson over Reagan Dunn.  Publicola notes:

Quote
Dunn was reportedly less prepared than Ferguson for his interview, and the troopers’ organization informed Ferguson’s campaign of their decision just minutes after meeting with the Republican candidate.
http://publicola.com/2012/01/25/one-of-the-most-important-endorsements-in-this-race/ (http://publicola.com/2012/01/25/one-of-the-most-important-endorsements-in-this-race/)


A while back I suggested that Ferguson was more likely to win because he would outwork Dunn:

On paper, Dunn looks like a great candidate -- former federal prosecutor, good name ID, politically well-connected/can raise money.  But based on the past history of the two candidates, I think that Bob Ferguson will outwork Dunn in the end.

This suggests that scenario is playing out.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 27, 2012, 04:28:26 PM
Marijuana legalization is on the ballot!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on January 28, 2012, 04:03:13 PM
Guys, I just remade the new WA-1 with Dave's redistricting app and dispite the fact that it gave Rossi about a 2% MOV, it gave Obama a 14.5% advantage.  That's good.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 28, 2012, 06:48:26 PM
Guys, I just remade the new WA-1 with Dave's redistricting app and dispite the fact that it gave Rossi about a 2% MOV, it gave Obama a 14.5% advantage.  That's good.

2% MOV Rossi vs Murray yes?

BTW Rossi's performance still strikes me as impressive in 2010; even though it was a Republican year getting that percentage against Murray is no small feat (though I will say that I don't see any way for Rossi to win a major state-wide office anytime soon, 2010 was probably his best chance for at least a few election cycles).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on January 28, 2012, 09:24:57 PM
Guys, I just remade the new WA-1 with Dave's redistricting app and dispite the fact that it gave Rossi about a 2% MOV, it gave Obama a 14.5% advantage.  That's good.

2% MOV Rossi vs Murray yes?

BTW Rossi's performance still strikes me as impressive in 2010; even though it was a Republican year getting that percentage against Murray is no small feat (though I will say that I don't see any way for Rossi to win a major state-wide office anytime soon, 2010 was probably his best chance for at least a few election cycles).


Mhm, East King County really did it for him in the new WA-1, as well as the new 8th.



BTW here's the 2008 presidential race by the 2012 congressional districts.

()



Here are the MOVs I got for each district, if I can recall:

1st:  +14 Obama

2nd:  +23 Obama

3rd:  +4 Obama

4th:  +20 McCain

5th:  Didn't check what the vote was here, but it was likely single digits for McCain

6th:  Didn't check the exact total, but it didn't change that much from the 2008 version

7th:  I thing Bgwah mentioned that Obama had a 62% MOV here or something

8th:  +4 or 5 for Obama, not exactly sure

9th:  +38 Obama

10th:  Meeker got 57-40 in Obama's favor (+17)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on January 29, 2012, 02:36:21 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2017363709_truthneedle29m.html

I hate to sound like Goldy, but wow, talk about being shamelessly pro-McKenna.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 30, 2012, 07:20:15 PM
Gay marriage vote on Wednesday

I have two sources that tell me Sen. Haugen (D-Camanahnahnahno Island) is privately being a little squirrely on her vote, although that's weird considering the clarity of her public statements.

No news on undecided Sens. Hill (R-Latte), Fain (R-Used Car Lot), Shin (D-Seagull) or Hatfield (D-Nirvana), or "undecided" Sens. Parlette (R-Aplets and Cotlets) and Ericksen (R-Dairycow).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on January 30, 2012, 09:31:00 PM
Re: Senator Haugen: Uh...do we need to worry about this?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 30, 2012, 09:35:20 PM
Re: Senator Haugen: Uh...do we need to worry about this?

I don't really think so -- her public statement was concrete, and she put out a very negative statement when NOM's national branch started phone-bombing here.  I also really think it's unlikely that they'll come out with none of the four undecideds.  My intuition is that the vote will be more like 28-21 than 25-24.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on January 30, 2012, 09:40:32 PM
Re: Senator Haugen: Uh...do we need to worry about this?

I don't really think so -- her public statement was concrete, and she put out a very negative statement when NOM's national branch started phone-bombing here.  I also really think it's unlikely that they'll come out with none of the four undecideds.  My intuition is that the vote will be more like 28-21 than 25-24.

So she's just being the little old lady that she is?

(Quasi-related: My aunt has said some somewhat unfortunate things about LGBTQ people in the past, but when it comes to people she actually knows being insulted or discriminated against, or people's civil rights being on the chopping-board, she comes through for the right side. Every time.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on January 30, 2012, 11:43:58 PM
I know one of Haugen's grandchildren and they say there's nothing to worry about, FWIW


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Napoleon on January 31, 2012, 12:10:13 AM
I know one of Haugen's grandchildren and they say there's nothing to worry about, FWIW

Great to hear, assuming said grandchild is reliable.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on January 31, 2012, 03:45:36 PM
I love Joe McDermott.  <3 <3 <3


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 01, 2012, 04:24:20 AM
OK, marriage equality vote scheduled for about 6 PM today.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Joe Republic on February 01, 2012, 04:37:50 AM
Would somebody be able to kindly predict the vote outcome, approximately, for someone who's not as familiar with these individual state legislators as you apple-eating, Nirvana-listening, Starbucks-drinkers?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on February 01, 2012, 04:43:05 AM
Theoretically it looks between 25-24 and 29-20. Practically - somewhere "in between")))


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 01, 2012, 04:56:46 AM
Would somebody be able to kindly predict the vote outcome, approximately, for someone who's not as familiar with these individual state legislators as you apple-eating, Nirvana-listening, Starbucks-drinkers?

If you had said "latte" instead of "Starbucks" I would have done all of those things today :(

Anyway, smoltchanov is right on.  25 votes are needed.   They have 25 committed "Yes" votes (23 of whom have been solid from day one), 4 undecideds, and 2 longshots.  The non-surprise range is 25-24 to 29-20.  I think 27 or 28 votes is probably likeliest; even 29 wouldn't shock me.

Details:

There are 25 announced "Yes" votes.  23 of those sponsored the legislation, while two Democrats announced late-term support (one who backed down on demanding the bill send it directly to referendum; the other formerly undecided.)

There are 18 announced "No" votes, plus two Republicans who haven't committed, but are straight-ticket social conservatives.  I'd give Linda Evans Parlette about 8% odds and Doug "I Have No Opinion" Ericksen about 13% odds.

That leaves 4 true undecideds:

* Brian Hatfield (D-Pacific Coast), who has voted anti-gay in the past because he was born-again a few years back.  His decision will be totally personal.  I'd say 50% odds of a Yes vote.

* Paull Shin (D-Northern Seattle Metro), who is like Brian Hatfield but a life-long Mormon, and from a much more socially liberal district.  I'd say 55% odds of a Yes vote.

* Andy Hill (R-Microsoft), a freshman who says he wants to make sure churches aren't forced to marry gays, which is in the bill, and represents a very liberal district.  I'd say 65% odds of a Yes vote.

* Joe Fain (R-Seattle Exurbs), a freshman, who's 31, has never mentioned a religious affiliation that I can find, and seems to tilt a little left on social issues -- even if his district doesn't.  Interesting guy.  I'd say 65% odds of a Yes vote.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on February 01, 2012, 04:59:44 AM
Would somebody be able to kindly predict the vote outcome, approximately, for someone who's not as familiar with these individual state legislators as you apple-eating, Nirvana-listening, Starbucks-drinkers?

You forgot about Pearl Jam!  ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Joe Republic on February 01, 2012, 05:31:07 AM
Ok, cool, thanks.  And this is the Senate, I presume?  (Sorry, I really haven't been paying attention.)  What does it look like in the House?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on February 01, 2012, 05:38:50 AM
Ok, cool, thanks.  And this is the Senate, I presume?  (Sorry, I really haven't been paying attention.)  What does it look like in the House?

Senate.. House - well, i don't remember exact numbers there, but suppose - something about 53-45 or 55-43.... I don't remember too many moderate Republicans (equivalents of Litzow, Hill or Fain) there... Though there are couple AFAIK. On the other hand i don't remember Tim Sheldon's there  either)))


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 01, 2012, 02:53:20 PM
Ok, cool, thanks.  And this is the Senate, I presume?  (Sorry, I really haven't been paying attention.)  What does it look like in the House?

Senate.. House - well, i don't remember exact numbers there, but suppose - something about 53-45 or 55-43.... I don't remember too many moderate Republicans (equivalents of Litzow, Hill or Fain) there... Though there are couple AFAIK. On the other hand i don't remember Tim Sheldon's there  either)))

Sounds about right.  They have at least as many sponsors for the bill in the House as needed "Yes" votes.  It will pass.

Beyond that, I expect a more partisan-line vote in the House, as is typical there.  We're gonna see some blue dog Dems (like Chris Hurst), relieved of the pressure that's on their Senate counterparts, vote "No."  We'll probably see some individual conscience votes -- I only know of Glenn Anderson and Maureen Walsh (who's taking a political risk here) but there may well be others.  All in all, I expect blue dog/religious Dems to outnumber "yes"-voting Republicans and tilt things closer a bit.  53 to 55 seems like a reasonable range, but it's a guesstimate from my end.  There's not much information available.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 01, 2012, 05:35:02 PM
The Senate Rules Committee just passed through the legislation, according to the Seattle Weekly (http://blogs.seattleweekly.com/dailyweekly/2012/02/gay_marriage_law_looks_like_a.php#more), by a vote of 14-7.  The vote was party-line, save for Pflug's expected Yes.  Three things worth noting here.  First, Haugen was one of the 14, meaning my rumors were probably moot.  Second, for a vote of 14-7 to be possible, that must mean the Chair votes and voted Yes.  The Chair happens to be Lt. Governor Brad Owen (D-Reefer Madness), a long-time opponent of anything ever featured in an after-school special.  Maybe he's had a change of heart now that both his Republican opponents support marriage equality.  Finally, Linda Evans Parlette (R-Aplets and Cotlets) voted against it in committee, bringing the number of fake undecideds to Doug Ericksen (R-Dairycow).

Yes 25
Undecideds 4 (Hatfield, Shin, Fain, Hill)
Doug Ericksens 1
No 19 (plus one Doug Ericksen)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on February 01, 2012, 06:17:24 PM
omg, Alcon I love your D-this place R-that place comments!

The vote should be starting soon.... I'm excited!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 01, 2012, 09:20:37 PM
Hatfield will be a "Yes," which means it would pretty much take a lightning strike for this to fail

Yes 26
Undecided 3
Doug Ericksen 1
No 19

Edit: Hatfield's commitment contains this anecdote:

Quote
As I prayed for guidance, I went as far as to ask God for a sign that would help light the path for me toward reaching my decision. That sign, as I interpret it, has come in multiple forms, including an email from former Representative Betty Sue Morris, who shared with me that in a 20-plus year legislative career, her greatest regret was voting in support of the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) in 1996. Two years after voting in favor of the act, she learned her daughter was a lesbian. While her daughter has forgiven her, she has never forgiven herself for what she feels was a betrayal of her own family, something she has never been able to get over. Also, a similar message was conveyed to me from former legislator Dave Quall, who also singled out the DOMA vote as the greatest regret of his legislative career. As Christians, he said, we should be open to all people who are seeking God’s grace. Rejecting a measure recognizing their right to wed is like putting out a “Need Not Apply” sign. These are former colleagues whom I love and respect and I take their struggles and their revelations on this issue very seriously. Additionally, I spoke to my former pastor who said that while his beliefs were based on the Bible and therefore against a redefinition of marriage, he would not love anyone less or treat anyone differently based on their sexual orientation or choice of spouse. As private citizens, we are able to have that opinion, but as legislators, our “no” vote on this issue will be seen as loving my fellow man or woman less, based on their sexual orientation and an act of discrimination. That is something I cannot do.

http://blog.senatedemocrats.wa.gov/hatfield/sen-hatfield-announces-stance-on-marriage-equality-act/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 01, 2012, 09:49:13 PM
Various religious protections amendments adopted by voice vote

Hill and Fain both have proposed amendments...seems like a bad sign, but probably is the opposite

Edit: Fain's -- "A regularly licensed or ordained minister or priest, imam, rabbi, or similar official of any religious organization shall be immune from any civil claim or cause of action based on a refusal to solemnize or recognize any marriage under this section" -- has been adopted.  I think this is great cover for an Aye vote.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 01, 2012, 10:05:27 PM
Amendment 14, which protected something or other against religious exemptions (basically limits the anti-discrimination bill) fails 22-27, which may be the final vote


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 01, 2012, 10:12:10 PM
Referendum amendment is up, with Brian Hatfield (D-Ijjasdifahojka) advocating it


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on February 01, 2012, 10:24:56 PM
When are they going to actually vote on this?

I'm glad that Hatfield has come out in support of this. Also, its good to see that both Fain and Hill basically support it.

So this will be 28-21? or more like 27-22?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 01, 2012, 10:28:28 PM
Sen. Don Benton (R-Clark County): "If something predates the Constitution, like marriage, do we even have the authority to change it?"

Yes, Sen. Benton, that is why we don't have slavery anymore.

***

Referendum clause vote:

Yea 23
No 26

Shin voted No, I think.  Hill sounded like he just cleared his throat several times, but finally voted Yea.  Fain and Ericksen were Yeas.

***

At this point:

- Shin seems a clear Yea.
- Hill either has a head cold or is a Yea.
- Fain seems less for this than expected, but I'd still say he's a likely Yea.
- Ericksen has given no indications he is anything but a Nay.

***

My guess on the final vote: 28-21 or 29-20.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on February 01, 2012, 10:32:08 PM
Are you watching this Alcon?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 01, 2012, 10:34:40 PM

Yep, for a few more minutes.  I didn't expect my State Senator to be as impassioned as she is.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 01, 2012, 10:58:43 PM
The Washington State Senate has approved marriage equality by a vote of 28-21

Didn't catch which one of the undecideds was a Nay

Edit: Fain, I think?  Disappointing


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on February 01, 2012, 11:01:42 PM
It was Shin. Fain voted in favor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 01, 2012, 11:04:20 PM

Weird...I swore I heard him vote No on the referendum clause.  Makes most sense, though.  Kind of a hard thing for a Mormon to do.

Good for Fain, in any case.  Not something he had to do at all.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on February 01, 2012, 11:15:06 PM
The Washington State Senate has approved marriage equality by a vote of 28-21

WHOOO! :D

Now we just have to wait until November, where hopefully this will be upheld!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on February 02, 2012, 01:03:44 AM
Nicely done. When is the house voting on it?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on February 02, 2012, 01:28:28 AM
I didn't understand the timing for this, but I'd guess they are aiming for the Governor to sign this by Valentine's Day...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 02, 2012, 10:00:03 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2017398333_1stdistrict02m.html

bleh. Why can't Burner just go away?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on February 02, 2012, 10:36:37 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2017398333_1stdistrict02m.html

bleh. Why can't Burner just go away?

May be - she prefers Koster? With her as candidate that becomes real possibility...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on February 03, 2012, 01:29:15 PM
http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/02/soaking-poor-state-state

http://scorecard.assetsandopportunity.org/2012/measure/tax-burden-by-income?state=wa

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on February 03, 2012, 08:04:03 PM
http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/02/soaking-poor-state-state

http://scorecard.assetsandopportunity.org/2012/measure/tax-burden-by-income?state=wa

()

And yet we are poised to further increase sales taxes.
*sigh*


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on February 04, 2012, 02:05:18 AM
I read on the WA GOP's site that you have to caucus with the precinct that you're registered in. I'm registered back in Snohomish County, but I'll be in Spokane County during the caucus. Does anyone know if there is any way that I can caucus without going all the way back to the west side?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 04, 2012, 04:10:13 AM
I read on the WA GOP's site that you have to caucus with the precinct that you're registered in. I'm registered back in Snohomish County, but I'll be in Spokane County during the caucus. Does anyone know if there is any way that I can caucus without going all the way back to the west side?

I've only worked on Democratic caucuses, but unfortunately, the answer to your question is almost assuredly no.  You have to caucus in the precinct in which you are registered; I can't imagine the bylaws allow for anything else.  You may be able to switch your registration over to Spokane County in time and then switch it back without missing any elections, if you really want to.

Sorry...caucus eligibility just generally copies the state's definition of voting residence and then runs with it.  You can contact the caucus coordinator to double-check, though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 04, 2012, 04:32:52 AM
Not very surprising, but Dave Reichert is staying in his nice, cozy, Wenatchee-having WA-8 instead of challenging Cantwell

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2017418598_reichert04m.html

Quote
For now, the leading GOP challenger to Cantwell is first-term state Sen. Michael Baumgartner of Spokane, who has an intriguing résumé but lags badly in fundraising.

Port of Seattle Commissioner and trade consultant Bill Bryant is also said to be considering joining the race.

Bryant is a libertarian-I-guess business Republican from Seattle's Roosevelt neighborhood.  He is a McGavick-style noncompetitive, nonhumiliating candidate.  Probably better than Baumgartner, whose sole plus is being an elected official, and is way too conservative for the state.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 05, 2012, 10:29:36 PM
I'll go ahead and predict it now: Darcy Burner will win the WA-01 primary and hand the seat to the Republicans in November.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on February 06, 2012, 01:40:35 AM
I'll go ahead and predict it now: Darcy Burner will win the WA-01 primary and hand the seat to the Republicans in November.

The worst thing of it - she will hand the seat not to Litzow-Hill-Fain-style moderate Republican (whom i, personally, would be absolutely comfortable with), but to ultraright Koster(((((


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 06, 2012, 02:17:35 AM

Weird...I swore I heard him vote No on the referendum clause.  Makes most sense, though.  Kind of a hard thing for a Mormon to do.

State Rep. Tami Green, another Mormon, has said she'll support the bill though.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 06, 2012, 03:26:25 AM

Weird...I swore I heard him vote No on the referendum clause.  Makes most sense, though.  Kind of a hard thing for a Mormon to do.

State Rep. Tami Green, another Mormon, has said she'll support the bill though.

Yeah -- Green, despite having what I've heard is a tough and sometimes strained relationship with her faith community, is for this.  Her seatmate, Troy Kelley, consistently manages to be less reliable on Democratic issues where Green has much better reasons to be.  It's an interesting district.

Also, I was right.  Shin did vote no on sending it to referendum, because it would be too uncomfortable and emotional of an issue...which may even be less charming than the Republican line on this issue.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 08, 2012, 04:07:51 PM
House debate on marriage equality is starting now.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 08, 2012, 04:09:37 PM
Religious exemptions for businesses failed 45-53

Edit: Same result for first amendment redundant protection thingy


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 08, 2012, 04:17:45 PM
Yeah, every amendment is failing 53-45, gonna bet that's near the final vote -- might be one or two flips.

Edit: Residency for 30 days requirement failed 55-42

i really love the magical gong noise


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 08, 2012, 04:23:58 PM
47-51 on referendum clause, narrow fail

Jay Rodne's weird fake hyper-technical amendment failed 42-56


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 08, 2012, 05:16:04 PM
Rep. Jim McCune = crazy, not bright


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 08, 2012, 05:22:27 PM
Jim McCune has always reminded me of a chipmunk.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 08, 2012, 05:24:34 PM
"You know I love you all...especially those of you who like to sing and dance."

- Rep. Bill Hinkle (R-Cle Elum)

??? This man is definitely the most confusing speaker thus far


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 08, 2012, 05:39:46 PM
Now time for the pro-marriage equality Republicans.

Rep. Maureen Walsh (R-Human Decency, somewhere near Walla Walla) just gave one hell of a personal speech.  I'm sure it will be on YouTube sometime soon.

Rep. Glenn Anderson (R-Fall City), who's running for Lt. Governor, is giving a really ballsy speech with analogies about racial separatism in his native 1960s Alabama.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 08, 2012, 05:41:34 PM
What did Walsh cite as her reasoning? Any gay family members?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 08, 2012, 05:48:14 PM
Rep. Mark Hargrove (R-Covington) is citing a Jack in the Box commercial...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 08, 2012, 05:56:22 PM
"Traditional marriage...goes back to when life started."

- Rep. Jan Angel (R-Port Orchard)

do people over the age of 50 not have access to wikipedia?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on February 08, 2012, 06:24:02 PM
Are there any conservative democrats expected to vote against the bill?

I could see one of my representatives (Fred Finn) voting against it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 08, 2012, 06:26:14 PM
Fred Finn is a sponsor of the bill.

These are the only Democrats who weren't sponsors:

Rep. Tim Probst (17th LD)
Rep. Brian Blake (19th LD)
Rep. Tami Green (28th LD)
Rep. Troy Kelley (28th LD)
Rep. Steve Kirby (29th LD)
Rep. Mark Miloscia (30th LD)
Rep. Chris Hurst (31st LD)

Green has since said she supports the bill. Haven't heard about the others.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 08, 2012, 06:27:14 PM
Passes 55-43


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 08, 2012, 06:33:11 PM
Rep. Tim Probst (17th LD) - Aye
Rep. Brian Blake (19th LD) - Aye
Rep. Tami Green (28th LD) - Aye
Rep. Troy Kelley (28th LD) - Aye
Rep. Steve Kirby (29th LD) - Nay
Rep. Mark Miloscia (30th LD) - Nay
Rep. Chris Hurst (31st LD) - Nay

Steve Kirby fail.

Anderson and Walsh were the Republican "aye"s


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 08, 2012, 06:37:11 PM
The vote from Kirby warrants a primary challenger IMO. Miloscia also may have just cost himself the election for State Auditor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 08, 2012, 07:10:22 PM
The vote from Kirby warrants a primary challenger IMO. Miloscia also may have just cost himself the election for State Auditor.

Kirby's new district is pretty anti-gay.

Miloscia's opposition is sincere, but he's still pretty un-charming about it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on February 09, 2012, 04:33:01 AM
The vote from Kirby warrants a primary challenger IMO. Miloscia also may have just cost himself the election for State Auditor.

Are primary challenges effective in states with open/top-two primaries?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 09, 2012, 05:09:00 AM
"Traditional marriage...goes back to when life started."

- Rep. Jan Angel (R-Port Orchard)

do people over the age of 50 not have access to wikipedia?

I suppose you could claim that if you believe that traditional marriage was created by God at the same time that life was created, or something.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 09, 2012, 09:25:56 AM
The vote from Kirby warrants a primary challenger IMO. Miloscia also may have just cost himself the election for State Auditor.

Are primary challenges effective in states with open/top-two primaries?

It happened to a Democratic State Senator in 2010. The district was significantly more Democratic than Kirby's new district though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on February 09, 2012, 07:31:08 PM
Rep. Maureen Walsh (R-Human Decency, somewhere near Walla Walla) just gave one hell of a personal speech.  I'm sure it will be on YouTube sometime soon.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbmbdWK6338


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 09, 2012, 07:42:24 PM
Rep. Maureen Walsh (R-Human Decency, somewhere near Walla Walla) just gave one hell of a personal speech.  I'm sure it will be on YouTube sometime soon.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbmbdWK6338

Nice speech.

She beat a Constitution Party candidate 78-22 in 2010. It will be interesting to see what happens this year.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Miles on February 09, 2012, 09:38:12 PM
Rep. Maureen Walsh (R-Human Decency, somewhere near Walla Walla) just gave one hell of a personal speech.  I'm sure it will be on YouTube sometime soon.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbmbdWK6338

Nice speech.

She beat a Constitution Party candidate 78-22 in 2010. It will be interesting to see what happens this year.

I think she changed my mind.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on February 09, 2012, 10:03:47 PM
Rep. Maureen Walsh (R-Human Decency, somewhere near Walla Walla) just gave one hell of a personal speech.  I'm sure it will be on YouTube sometime soon.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbmbdWK6338

Nice speech.

She beat a Constitution Party candidate 78-22 in 2010. It will be interesting to see what happens this year.

I think she changed my mind.

Yay!  One more for equality! :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 09, 2012, 10:05:32 PM
Watching the anti-gay speeches has actually made me support gay marriage more, if that's possible. I cannot believe how bad their arguments are.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 09, 2012, 10:25:51 PM
Watching the anti-gay speeches has actually made me support gay marriage more, if that's possible. I cannot believe how bad their arguments are.

It was amazing how long Rodne could talk legalese while rehashing some of the worst arguments I've ever heard.  It's sad to see an obviously intelligent person so obviously set on not even thinking directly about his own argument.

The rest of it fit two categories: 1) People complaining about pre-existing anti-discrimination statutes that will not be affected; 2) People whose idea of "religious liberties" is evidently their freedom to enforce their own religious views on all people through government.  Not a charming bunch.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 09, 2012, 10:32:04 PM
Watching the anti-gay speeches has actually made me support gay marriage more, if that's possible. I cannot believe how bad their arguments are.

It was amazing how long Rodne could talk legalese while rehashing some of the worst arguments I've ever heard.  It's sad to see an obviously intelligent person so obviously set on not even thinking directly about his own argument.

The rest of it fit two categories: 1) People complaining about pre-existing anti-discrimination statutes that will not be affected; 2) People whose idea of "religious liberties" is evidently their freedom to enforce their own religious views on all people through government.  Not a charming bunch.

And one of them is a front runner for the GOP Presidential nomination... Depressing.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on February 09, 2012, 10:59:20 PM
I'm proud of the Walla Walla critter that voted yes. Not so much for the rest of Eastern Washington.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on February 09, 2012, 11:08:56 PM
I'm genuinely undecided on how I'll vote on this come referendum time. This is the first time I've genuinely felt apathetic about a state legalizing gay marriage.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 09, 2012, 11:18:07 PM
I'm genuinely undecided on how I'll vote on this come referendum time. This is the first time I've genuinely felt apathetic about a state legalizing gay marriage.

Please don't turn into a Santorum supporting, anti-gay marriage theocrat. It's been really sad to watch your political transformation... You're smarter than this.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on February 09, 2012, 11:26:02 PM
I'm genuinely undecided on how I'll vote on this come referendum time. This is the first time I've genuinely felt apathetic about a state legalizing gay marriage.

Please don't turn into a Santorum supporting, anti-gay marriage theocrat. It's been really sad to watch your political transformation... You're smarter than this.

I guess I'll probably vote for gay marriage because I can't think of any good reason not to (though I can think of a lot of bad, visceral, vindictive reasons not to), and I don't think I could possibly face a gay person and tell them they don't deserve the chance to get married. I'd like to think I'm not that heartless.

I just won't feel as good about it as I'd like, and that saddens me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on February 09, 2012, 11:33:59 PM
I'm genuinely undecided on how I'll vote on this come referendum time. This is the first time I've genuinely felt apathetic about a state legalizing gay marriage.

Please don't turn into a Santorum supporting, anti-gay marriage theocrat. It's been really sad to watch your political transformation... You're smarter than this.

I guess I'll probably vote for gay marriage because I can't think of any good reason not to (though I can think of a lot of bad, visceral, vindictive reasons not to), and I don't think I could possibly face a gay person and tell them they don't deserve the chance to get married. I'd like to think I'm not that heartless.

I just won't feel as good about it as I'd like, and that saddens me.

What a strange way to view this issue. You seem as if you're desperately waiting on any excuse to vote against it, but you just can't find one.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 09, 2012, 11:38:57 PM
I'm genuinely undecided on how I'll vote on this come referendum time. This is the first time I've genuinely felt apathetic about a state legalizing gay marriage.

Please don't turn into a Santorum supporting, anti-gay marriage theocrat. It's been really sad to watch your political transformation... You're smarter than this.

I guess I'll probably vote for gay marriage because I can't think of any good reason not to (though I can think of a lot of bad, visceral, vindictive reasons not to), and I don't think I could possibly face a gay person and tell them they don't deserve the chance to get married. I'd like to think I'm not that heartless.

I just won't feel as good about it as I'd like, and that saddens me.

Is your new-found religion really making you feel this bad for supporting basic human rights? I hate to budge into something so personal, but perhaps you didn't pick the right church for you...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on February 09, 2012, 11:48:22 PM
I'm genuinely undecided on how I'll vote on this come referendum time. This is the first time I've genuinely felt apathetic about a state legalizing gay marriage.

Please don't turn into a Santorum supporting, anti-gay marriage theocrat. It's been really sad to watch your political transformation... You're smarter than this.

I guess I'll probably vote for gay marriage because I can't think of any good reason not to (though I can think of a lot of bad, visceral, vindictive reasons not to), and I don't think I could possibly face a gay person and tell them they don't deserve the chance to get married. I'd like to think I'm not that heartless.

I just won't feel as good about it as I'd like, and that saddens me.

Is your new-found religion really making you feel this bad for supporting basic human rights? I hate to budge into something so personal, but perhaps you didn't pick the right church for you...

It's not religion so much as socialization. I don't know...I used to be more passionate about this issue than any other. I used to think exactly the same way as the rest of you guys. But now, I've trained myself to not care because it's the only way to reconcile these two competing interests. I think the way we look at marriage is wrong. I don't think marriage is itself a right per se; I don't like when people say that because I think it demeans marriage. I think marriage is the definition of a privilege and an honor that you must earn, not something that you're entitled to, and perhaps the textual nature of the discourse has allowed me to create artificial reasons to numb myself.

Everything about my ideology should scream for gay marriage to be allowed to those who earn it. I know that I'm being hypocritical otherwise. I've tried to avoid this topic for months, but I don't think I can anymore. I see my emptiness, and I'm ashamed.

I guess gay marriage is the one major issue I don't align with the Catholic Church on. I just need to accept that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 09, 2012, 11:53:13 PM
Rep. Maureen Walsh (R-Human Decency, somewhere near Walla Walla) just gave one hell of a personal speech.  I'm sure it will be on YouTube sometime soon.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbmbdWK6338

Nice speech.

She beat a Constitution Party candidate 78-22 in 2010. It will be interesting to see what happens this year.

I think she changed my mind.

Hurrah! Welcome to the team, Miles. :D

realisticidealist, if you'd like to talk to me about this, odds are I'll understand the lay of the land with regards to your feelings on this--as somebody who's had a lot of the questions that you're talking about but who feels that he's reconciled them in a way that seems to work.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on February 10, 2012, 02:21:46 AM
Rep. Maureen Walsh (R-Human Decency, somewhere near Walla Walla) just gave one hell of a personal speech.  I'm sure it will be on YouTube sometime soon.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbmbdWK6338

That was a great speech! The part at the beginning is really touching and certainly a great argument for gay marriage as well.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 10, 2012, 04:46:42 AM
My problem is not at all with people who want a religion to give them guidance.  It is not my thing, but if it makes people happy, I could never bring myself to try to take it away from someone.  It doesn't matter whether I understand it or not.  I can understand why religious people are so fearful of being coerced to behave against what is, for them, a source of love and comfort.  I may not understand it personally, but that doesn't matter.  That's what the pursuit of happiness is about.

That is exactly why some of the Republican speeches were unconscionable to me.  Despite their arguments about religious liberty (which were really about other bills, not gay marriage) they immediately turned around and argued that their religious views precluded other religions' ideals of marriage and other people's ideals of love.  This really frustrates me.  Then, most of them spent speech time saying how they "did this out of love," and hoped others would respect their decision, etc.  It is like they were spending speech time reassuring themselves that everything is OK because they're good people, and good people wouldn't do bad things.  They do.  And that's the kind of thinking that lets them sleep well after they do.

Maureen Walsh could have spent four minutes up there talking about believing in the goodness and love in herself.  Instead, she spent it talking about the goodness and love in everyone, and at the core of the human experience.  I'm sending her a check once I have money in the bank.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 10, 2012, 04:57:07 AM
Yikes, that was ranty.  Man, I'd be really annoying if there were more issues I felt non-ambivalent about.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: afleitch on February 10, 2012, 08:03:13 AM
Maureen Walsh could have spent four minutes up there talking about believing in the goodness and love in herself.  Instead, she spent it talking about the goodness and love in everyone, and at the core of the human experience.  I'm sending her a check once I have money in the bank.

To me, it's probably one of the most influential speeches ever given on gay marriage by a legislator (and I do mean that) because of it's simplicity. Those who oppose gay marriage could at a time before there was gay marriage use any appeal to oppose it. As more gay marriages take place and there are no effects on anyone except a positive effect on gays who get married opposition is much more difficult.

Eventually you are left with people who oppose it out of nothing but spite. To them gay marriage is about everything but gays; it's about 'religion' and 'freedom' and the 'family' and 'tradition' and 'don't know know what gays actually do?'

Mrs Walsh essentially speared that argument very simply. As every married person will know marriage isn't all about sex, it's about much more than that. If you deny the 'much more than that' because of prudish views on sex then you actually demean what a marriage is about. To then deny the benefits of marriage to a group of people for reasons completely unrelated to those benefits is nothing more than spite.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on February 12, 2012, 05:50:43 PM
Random side note:
I had a dream last night that Santorum was walking around Olympia (he will be there tomorrow) doing all of his anti-gay shenanigans. However in my dream he gets hit by "glitter cannons" which then renders him permanently glittered (my bizarre dream then fast forwarded to him, still sparkling, debating Obama on national television. For me this was an oddly relevant dream sequence, usually I am saving the moon from aliens or flying like superman around a volcano or something.

Question: Will there be significant counter-protests to Santorum's visit? His presence will outrage a good number of liberals and gay-rights activists. As an Olympia native I know that it may be one of the least friendly places for Santorum to visit...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on February 12, 2012, 06:11:09 PM
Santorum's coming to Olympia?  ???


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on February 12, 2012, 06:20:50 PM
Santorum's coming to Olympia?  ???

Yep! Basically he is going to be the cheerleader for anti-marriage equality forces. Really puts a sour note on what should be a great/historic day for Washington State.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2017479338_santorum11m.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 12, 2012, 06:49:27 PM
What a dick.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 13, 2012, 12:03:34 AM
Greg Nickels is running for SoS? What!?

I really need to pay better attention.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 13, 2012, 03:25:09 PM
John Milem, a Vancouver man who was basically the redistricting committee's vigilante roadie, was thanked by the commissioners after the process finished and is now petitioning (http://www.columbian.com/news/2012/feb/08/redistricting-plan-draws-challenge/) for the Supreme Court to strike it down.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 13, 2012, 04:55:13 PM
The Gay has been signed.

http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/02/13/10398748-wash-governor-signs-gay-marriage-bill-into-law


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on February 13, 2012, 05:33:55 PM
The Gay has been signed.

http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/02/13/10398748-wash-governor-signs-gay-marriage-bill-into-law

Three cheers for the great state of Washington!  This is a landmark moment in our state history.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Gass3268 on February 13, 2012, 07:06:01 PM
Congrats to Washington!!!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on February 13, 2012, 07:22:04 PM
:D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 13, 2012, 07:27:10 PM
Also noteworthy is that the New Jersey Senate passed gay marriage today. It doesn't have enough votes to override a possible Christie veto but it does have enough votes to be sent to referendum.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on February 13, 2012, 07:34:25 PM
Yay us(Washington)!!!!!

And New Jersey too!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on February 13, 2012, 07:42:50 PM
I'm sure there will be a referendum, so don't get too excited just yet.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on February 13, 2012, 08:13:37 PM
Civil liberties marches onward.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on February 13, 2012, 08:14:11 PM
;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: MaxQue on February 13, 2012, 08:16:11 PM
John Milem, a Vancouver man who was basically the redistricting committee's vigilante roadie, was thanked by the commissioners after the process finished and is now petitioning (http://www.columbian.com/news/2012/feb/08/redistricting-plan-draws-challenge/) for the Supreme Court to strike it down.

Vancouver, WA?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 13, 2012, 08:33:58 PM
John Milem, a Vancouver man who was basically the redistricting committee's vigilante roadie, was thanked by the commissioners after the process finished and is now petitioning (http://www.columbian.com/news/2012/feb/08/redistricting-plan-draws-challenge/) for the Supreme Court to strike it down.

Vancouver, WA?

Yep


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 13, 2012, 11:14:54 PM
John Milem, a Vancouver man who was basically the redistricting committee's vigilante roadie, was thanked by the commissioners after the process finished and is now petitioning (http://www.columbian.com/news/2012/feb/08/redistricting-plan-draws-challenge/) for the Supreme Court to strike it down.

Vancouver, WA?

Yep

Glad it's being challenged, though I'm not a fan of his proposed maps. The Highway 20 connection bothers me the most. Sure, it's technically a road connection, but it's closed for half the year! You can't even travel on that road during election season. It should not be used as a connection.

Furthermore, he may only have four counties split --- but he splits King County seven ways to do this, despite the fact that King County only has about 1.9 million people.

He's right about the commission ignoring the rules (they just used "community of interest" BS when necessary to justify their gerrymanders), but focusing on the goals as much as he did results in an equally silly map, IMO.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on February 13, 2012, 11:36:24 PM
Oh wow, cross cascades district is really designed to protect the incumbent Republican.
http://www.spokanegop.com/component/content/article/353-washington-state-congressional-district-map-as-adopted-by-the-redistricting-commission-on-january-1st-2012
I think this is the right map? I am not sure how taking away king county instead of pierce county can be justified for a cross cascade county except for gerrymandering/incumbent protection. If it's an I-90 district, shouldn't it actually have areas near I-90 instead of random collection of rural areas? 4 Safe Republican seats isn't cool.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 13, 2012, 11:56:23 PM
That's the right map. And it's definitely an incumbent protection map, which was to be expected, though I was hoping it wouldn't be that bad.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on February 14, 2012, 01:30:52 AM
That's the right map. And it's definitely an incumbent protection map, which was to be expected, though I was hoping it wouldn't be that bad.


Do democratic incumbents really need protection?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 14, 2012, 01:35:37 AM
That's the right map. And it's definitely an incumbent protection map, which was to be expected, though I was hoping it wouldn't be that bad.


Do democratic incumbents really need protection?

Rick Larsen did.

Party elder Denny Heck was also treated as a de facto incumbent.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on February 14, 2012, 02:55:07 AM
That's the right map. And it's definitely an incumbent protection map, which was to be expected, though I was hoping it wouldn't be that bad.


Do democratic incumbents really need protection?

Rick Larsen did.

Party elder Denny Heck was also treated as a de facto incumbent.
Isn't 3rd turning more Republican though?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 14, 2012, 03:02:27 AM
Yes, but Heck is getting the new 10th district instead.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on February 14, 2012, 06:45:49 AM
Hah, the glitterbomber from the Santorum rally was the burnout from my chemistry class.  He's apparently now an Occupy camper.  Ahh, predictable.

Bless his soul.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 14, 2012, 05:31:02 PM
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

Washington is currently running second behind Wisconsin for the next PPP poll.  Vote!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on February 14, 2012, 05:48:30 PM
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

Washington is currently running second behind Wisconsin for the next PPP poll.  Vote!

Do they poll the top two when there are only four choices?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 14, 2012, 06:25:56 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2017504326_another_poll_shows_mckenna_lea.html

Elway, 405 RV, shows McKenna 45%, Inslee 36%:

Quote
Continuing an early trend in Washington's 2012 governor's race, a new Elway poll finds Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna with a 9-point lead over Democratic Congressman Jay Inslee.

The poll, conducted last week, found 45 percent of respondents would "definitely" or "probably" vote for McKenna, compared with 36 percent for Inslee.

Pollster Stuart Elway notes one "ominous" sign for Inslee in the poll data: the proportion of voters with a negative impression of him (22 percent) is nearly equal to those with a positive impression (28 percent).

By contrast, McKenna has a 3 to 1 ratio of positive to negative impression among voters surveyed.

Elway also found McKenna enjoying a lead among key independent voters: 49 percent said they're at least leaning toward McKenna compared with 24 percent for Inslee.

In addition, McKenna is picking up 13 percent of Democrats in the poll, while only 3 percent of Republicans said they'd cross party lines to back Inslee.

Overall, Elway says the results show "a significant early advantage" for McKenna, while Inslee has yet to broaden his appeal beyond the Democratic base.

"McKenna does an even better job among voters who are familiar with both candidates, suggesting that he will get stronger as the campaign unfolds," Elway notes. "But there are many miles to go before we vote."

The poll of 405 registered voters has a margin of error of plus/minus 5 percent.

Inslee's continuing lag in the early polls has been worrying Democrats, who united behind the Bainbridge Island Congressman early, stifling any notion of a primary challenge.

Some Democratic operatives have been quietly agitating for Inslee to quit Congress and concentrate on campaigning full-time. Inslee has said he has no plans to do so.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 15, 2012, 05:07:37 PM
PPP is going to be polling us this weekend.  Any suggestions on questions?  (Beyond the obvious -- marriage equality, pot, Cantwell/Bryant, Cantwell/Baumgartner, Gov) -- I'll pass them onto PPP.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on February 15, 2012, 05:12:14 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2017504326_another_poll_shows_mckenna_lea.html

Elway, 405 RV, shows McKenna 45%, Inslee 36%:


Has Governor McKenna started fitting the curtains for his new office yet?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on February 15, 2012, 07:17:57 PM
income tax? Didn't some poll show it now passing?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on February 15, 2012, 11:04:56 PM
Income taxes passing in Washington? Ha Ha Ha Ha!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on February 17, 2012, 11:33:23 AM
PPP says Santorum is up 9 here on their first night of polling (in the caucus, not the general). I'm still debating on whether I should caucus or not.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 17, 2012, 02:48:20 PM
PPP says Santorum is up 9 here on their first night of polling (in the caucus, not the general). I'm still debating on whether I should caucus or not.

Did you find out if you can remote-caucus?

I'm considering going if the local GOP will let me (I'm a Democratic PCO), at least to observe.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on February 17, 2012, 05:28:22 PM
PPP says Santorum is up 9 here on their first night of polling (in the caucus, not the general). I'm still debating on whether I should caucus or not.

Did you find out if you can remote-caucus?

I'm considering going if the local GOP will let me (I'm a Democratic PCO), at least to observe.

No, I'd have to drive back to the westside.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 17, 2012, 07:12:53 PM
New SUSA poll:

McKenna 49%
Inslee 39%

Obama 50%
Romney 39%

Obama 50%
Paul 37%

Obama 51%
Santorum 38%

Obama 56%
Gingrich 34%

Referendum 74 - Gay marriage (estimated)
Approved 50%
Rejected 46%

Also, lol:

()

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on February 17, 2012, 11:56:30 PM
Yeah, weird. You would think that the cell lines would be more liberal in general (students/youth don't use land lines).

Also did you notice that both Romney and Paul are losing Eastern Washington in that poll? Meanwhile Western Washington (outside Seattle Metro) is tied. What?!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 17, 2012, 11:58:55 PM
Yeah, weird. You would think that the cell lines would be more liberal in general (students/youth don't use land lines).

Also did you notice that both Romney and Paul are losing Eastern Washington in that poll? Meanwhile Western Washington (outside Seattle Metro) is tied. What?!

SUSA's samples are often odd like that, even if overall they end up being fairly accurate.

They also claim WA has more Republicans than Democrats, which I find strange.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 18, 2012, 06:07:19 PM
Gay marriage numbers in the SUSA poll were 50%-45% Approved with Obama underwater in approval 42%-47%.  The partisan ID looks too Republican to me, but adjusting it to 2010 exit poll results results in insanity (Obama +20 over Romney)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on February 19, 2012, 12:18:16 AM
Yeah, weird. You would think that the cell lines would be more liberal in general (students/youth don't use land lines).

Also did you notice that both Romney and Paul are losing Eastern Washington in that poll? Meanwhile Western Washington (outside Seattle Metro) is tied. What?!

SUSA's samples are often odd like that, even if overall they end up being fairly accurate.

They also claim WA has more Republicans than Democrats, which I find strange.

That's absolutely BS, of course. :P  lol


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 19, 2012, 08:06:55 PM
PPP won't leak anything to me besides saying to expect some "interesting" results.  I asked about the social issues votes (pots, gays) specifically.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on February 20, 2012, 01:19:04 PM
Why is Alcon in New York?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 20, 2012, 03:05:25 PM

Conference


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 21, 2012, 12:58:53 PM
PPP will have non-GOP primary stuff tomorrow


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 22, 2012, 02:00:39 PM
PPP says:

Governor: 42-42 McKenna-Inslee
Attorney General: 34-32 Dunn-Ferguson

I-502 (Marijuana): 47-39 Approve
Gay marriage: 50-46 approve

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WA_222.pdf

Doesn't look liked they asked about the Senate race?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Miles on February 22, 2012, 02:41:02 PM
They'll probably release Senate numbers separately. They usually split up President/Senate/Governor results out among a few reports.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on February 22, 2012, 06:55:41 PM
Relatively good numbers. Also does this stand out?

Quote
If you are a woman, press 1.  If a man, press 2.
 
Woman...........................................................54%
Man .................................................................46%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 22, 2012, 07:22:24 PM
Relatively good numbers. Also does this stand out?

Quote
If you are a woman, press 1.  If a man, press 2.
 
Woman...........................................................54%
Man .................................................................46%

Yeah


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 23, 2012, 02:04:42 PM
That's a slight oversampling of women, but only slight. I think the numbers in most elections are like 52-48 or 53-47 or thereabouts.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 23, 2012, 02:37:14 PM
Obama 52%
Santorum 40%

Obama 51%
Paul 38%

Obama 53%
Romney 38%

Obama 55%
Gingrich 35%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 23, 2012, 02:41:48 PM
Quote
PPP's newest Washington numbers find Barack Obama with an approval rating over 50% in the state and double digit leads over all of his potential Republican opponents. 51% of voters think he's doing a good job to 45% who give him poor marks. He's on positive ground largely because there are twice as many Republicans (12%) who approve of him as there are Democrats (6%) who disapprove.

What might be most interesting about the Washington numbers is how Mitt Romney stacks up against Obama compared to the other Republican candidates. Long perceived as the most electable GOP hopeful, Romney fares only the third best in Washington with both Rick Santorum and Ron Paul coming a few points closer to Obama.

Santorum's the strongest of the Republican candidates, trailing Obama 52-40. Paul does next best with a 51-38 deficit. As we frequently find to be the case he does the best of the GOP hopefuls with independents, trailing Obama by only 2 at 43-41. Romney trails by 15 at 53-38, and the weakest of the Republicans is Newt Gingrich who's down 20 at 55-35.

Washington provides a pretty good example of the toll this campaign has taken on Romney's image. Last May when we polled the state his favorability was a -13 spread at 34/47. Since then he's dropped another 23 points and it's now -36 at 27/63.
He's gone from nearly break even with independents at 38/42 to incredibly unpopular at 28/59. He's gone from 66% of Democrats disliking him to 88%. And even with Republicans his negatives have shot from 29% to 40%. Maybe if he wins the nomination some of these numbers will start to recover but for now the campaign seems to have hurt him with pretty much all groups of the electorate.

The other thing Washington does is provide more evidence that the 2012 electoral landscape will be more similar to 2008 than 2000 or 2004. In the last 2 months PPP has polled 4 states that Al Gore won by 5 points or less in 2000 that Barack Obama went on to win by double digits in 2008. In all 4 of those states Obama is again headed for a double digit victory...they are not reverting to their 2000/2004 competitiveness.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on February 23, 2012, 02:45:25 PM
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/obama-up-big-in-washington.html

Quote
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?

Favorable........................................................ 19%
Unfavorable.................................................... 69%
Not sure ......................................................... 11%

Poor Newt


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on February 24, 2012, 02:00:23 AM
lol  Saintly Rick doing better than Romney?  Eastern Washington must be really energetic about him.....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on February 25, 2012, 01:27:11 PM
One week until the caucuses. Anyone else thinking of going?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 25, 2012, 01:38:43 PM
No, I'm not a Republican.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on February 25, 2012, 01:48:18 PM

So?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 27, 2012, 02:01:36 PM
I think I might observe, but being a Democratic PCO, it seems inappropriate if I voted :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on February 28, 2012, 12:31:47 AM
Oh boy, I'm so excited that the words "redefine marriage" are in the in Referendum 74 proposed ballot language.  Thank you Rob McKenna.  I can see a judge ruling either way on this one.  Reminds me in a strange way of the Rossi "Prefers GOP Party".


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 28, 2012, 08:45:00 AM
Oh boy, I'm so excited that the words "redefine marriage" are in the in Referendum 74 proposed ballot language.

God damn it. Oh well. More work for the HRC lawyers and ad people.

I imagine this will be somewhat easier, purely structurally speaking, in Maryland.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 02, 2012, 12:31:54 PM
Norm Dicks is retiring? Why haven't we heard about this from our Pierce County people? :P

at least one of them will have to make sure we know that he already knew, and that he just didn't want to tell us cuz he's cool and keeps awesome secrets


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 02, 2012, 12:36:53 PM
Also, can we redraw the 6th and 10th districts now? Please?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 02, 2012, 01:56:08 PM
I had no idea about Norm Dicks and hadn't actually heard anyone even suggest the possibility.  But then again I can count the times I've had a serious interaction with Dicks or his staffers on one hand.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 02, 2012, 02:05:25 PM
I had no idea about Norm Dicks and hadn't actually heard anyone even suggest the possibility.  But then again I can count the times I've had a serious interaction with Dicks or his staffers on one hand.

Okay, okay. But who will run!?

Laurie Jenkins for Congress? ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 02, 2012, 02:49:01 PM
I'm hearing a lot now, but I'm mostly hearing Derek Kilmer.

Other names I've heard floated are Jim Hargrove and Mark Lindquist.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on March 03, 2012, 12:46:25 AM
How liberal is the district? I know that under the old lines the PVI was D+5, but does the GOP how a shot of making a race under the new lines?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on March 03, 2012, 12:49:27 AM
Oh boy, I'm so excited that the words "redefine marriage" are in the in Referendum 74 proposed ballot language.

God damn it. Oh well. More work for the HRC lawyers and ad people.

I imagine this will be somewhat easier, purely structurally speaking, in Maryland.

This is why Attorney Generals need to stop creating the ballot language on propositions, and let State Supreme Courts do so. The way the initiative is phrased could swing a fair number of people in one direction.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 03, 2012, 04:32:55 AM
I will not be reporting from the GOP caucus tomorrow because I'm not going with a headache.  Keep us updated, RI!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on March 03, 2012, 07:16:13 AM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2017651307_budget03m.html

Quote
GOP grabs reins of budget in Olympia

Republicans in the state Senate on Friday, joined by three conservative Democrats, used a rare procedural move to take over the budget plan on the Senate floor. After midnight, the budget was narrowly approved 25-24. It now goes to the state House.

DINOs on fiscal issues?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on March 03, 2012, 07:37:49 AM
Finally some people have the courage to stand up and vote for the elimination of assistance programs for the disabled. That gravy train is over.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 03, 2012, 08:15:31 AM
How liberal is the district? I know that under the old lines the PVI was D+5, but does the GOP how a shot of making a race under the new lines?

The estimate I heard was that it was about 59% Obama. And Republicans only have one state legislator in the district, so they have no bench.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 03, 2012, 08:45:06 AM
I don't think anyone knew about Dicks; even the DCCC was caught completely off guard from what I've heard.

The district should theoretically be competitive but as Johnny mentioned there isn't really any Republican base to speak of. My biggest concern is that either Sheldon or Hargrove somehow end up winning.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 03, 2012, 12:35:31 PM
Hargrove would be terrible. At least he's already 59 so if he did win, he wouldn't be around for 36 years. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on March 03, 2012, 12:41:09 PM
I just drew the district as best I could in DRA (I'm over by 16,000 people, some of the blocks in DRA look to be split between districts) and got 57.1 Obama, 40.8 McCain, and 52.8% Murray. So, no change, really.

57% Obama isn't completely safe, but after 2010 there are only four Republicans in districts that are 57% Obama or greater (Dold, Gerlach, Reichert, and Barletta). And Republicans don't have anyone of, say, Reichert's stature to run.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on March 04, 2012, 02:49:00 PM
I don't think anyone knew about Dicks; even the DCCC was caught completely off guard from what I've heard.

The district should theoretically be competitive but as Johnny mentioned there isn't really any Republican base to speak of. My biggest concern is that either Sheldon or Hargrove somehow end up winning.

Sheldon, dear lord that would be horrible. Though he wouldn't be able to get away with his usual antics for very long; the US house of representatives is a much bigger magnifying glass than the WA senate.

Speaking of which I am dumbfounded by the stupidity of the three dem senators the other day, they basically shot themselves in the foot. There is no way their budget will get passed and instead the budget battle will just become even more intensely partisan and brutal.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on March 04, 2012, 07:18:05 PM
How liberal is the district? I know that under the old lines the PVI was D+5, but does the GOP how a shot of making a race under the new lines?

The estimate I heard was that it was about 59% Obama. And Republicans only have one state legislator in the district, so they have no bench.

They could always recruit a self-funder, but yeah the peninsula hasn't been very fertile grounds for Republicans in recent years. I wasn't sure if redistricting had brought in some more conservative friendly parts from the Seattle suburbs or not.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on March 04, 2012, 08:58:17 PM
I'm reading rumors that State Sen. Derek Kilmer (D-Gig Harbor) is going to declare for WA-6 soon.  I think this a positive development; certainly I would vastly prefer him to Sheldon or Hargrove.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on March 04, 2012, 10:14:11 PM
I'm reading rumors that State Sen. Derek Kilmer (D-Gig Harbor) is going to declare for WA-6 soon.  I think this a positive development; certainly I would vastly prefer him to Sheldon or Hargrove.

I feel like Kilmer would be a very good fit for the district, and much more preferable to Sheldon [eww] or Hargrove [slightly less eww].


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 04, 2012, 10:34:25 PM
Who would the Republicans run? I can't really think of anyone, other than maybe Jan Angel.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on March 04, 2012, 11:01:03 PM
Who would the Republicans run? I can't really think of anyone, other than maybe Jan Angel.
Perrenial loser something Cloud?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on March 05, 2012, 03:05:56 AM
Who would the Republicans run? I can't really think of anyone, other than maybe Jan Angel.

Dino Rossi?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on March 05, 2012, 03:19:11 AM
Who would the Republicans run? I can't really think of anyone, other than maybe Jan Angel.

Dino Rossi?

3-times loser? No, thank you))))


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 05, 2012, 03:31:18 AM
Who would the Republicans run? I can't really think of anyone, other than maybe Jan Angel.

Dino Rossi?

Wrong congressional district


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 05, 2012, 03:31:46 AM
Who would the Republicans run? I can't really think of anyone, other than maybe Jan Angel.

Dino Rossi?

Wrong congressional district

I think he was joking. At least I hope he was --- hard to tell with that guy.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: redcommander on March 05, 2012, 04:05:48 AM
Who would the Republicans run? I can't really think of anyone, other than maybe Jan Angel.

Dino Rossi?

Wrong congressional district

I think he was joking. At least I hope he was --- hard to tell with that guy.

Yes I was. Although he would probably do better as a carpetbagger than Cloud would.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 05, 2012, 11:26:45 AM
The Republican could be some wealthy Tacoma resident. Or perhaps Mike Lonergan wants to switch over from the Pierce County Assessor-Treasurer race (if he lives in the district).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 05, 2012, 11:28:09 AM
Shocking! http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/2012/03/05/gig-harbor-sen-derek/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 05, 2012, 02:55:55 PM
http://www.theolympian.com/2012/03/03/2014027/dicks-seat-may-draw-crowd-of-contenders.html

Democrats

Pierce County Prosecutor Mark Lindquist: Posted on Facebook he's out.

Tacoma Mayor Marilyn Strickland: “something I will take into consideration.”

State Senator Tim Sheldon: “I’ll leave the door open,”

State Senator Jim Hargrove: No quote in the article, but indicates he's thinking about it.

State Auditor Brian Sonntag: “certainly worth looking at.” (Sonntag lives in the 10th though)

Republicans

State Representative Jan Angel: "hasn’t yet had time to think about running."

Pierce County Councilmen Dick Muri and Stan Flemming: Sticking with the 10th CD race.

Previously announced candidates Jesse Young, Doug Cloud and Bob Sauerwein: Still running.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 05, 2012, 03:39:27 PM
...rep. tim sheldon?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 05, 2012, 04:00:16 PM
If he runs and loses we'd finally be done with him. If he wins though... *shudder*


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on March 05, 2012, 06:00:21 PM
Well if he wins that CD I don't see anything from stopping him to become Senator or Governor Tim Sheldon.

:P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 06, 2012, 10:56:06 AM
State Senator Christine Rolfes (D) has taken her name out of consideration.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 08, 2012, 12:43:51 AM
Is Kastama's vote some moderate hero ploy to get elected Secretary of State? It just seems so blatantly ostentatious.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 08, 2012, 12:50:10 AM
Is Kastama's vote some moderate hero ploy to get elected Secretary of State?

I've been wondering the same.  It seems like an awful idea to me, since there's a qualified Republican (Wyman) who will get Republican votes.  Maybe he wants to distinguish himself clearly from the other two Democrats?  Not the strategy I would pick...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 08, 2012, 12:58:34 AM
It is quite odd. I don't really know what any of the three Democrats were thinking but him especially.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 08, 2012, 12:56:28 PM
Some terrible SEIU poll:

Inslee 38%
McKenna 38%

http://www.thestranger.com/images/blogimages/2012/03/07/1331151734-gov_memo_030612.pdf


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on March 09, 2012, 10:19:00 PM
Fun times.

http://news.yahoo.com/judge-stabbed-deputy-shot-washington-state-courthouse-010957061.html (http://news.yahoo.com/judge-stabbed-deputy-shot-washington-state-courthouse-010957061.html)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Miles on March 10, 2012, 02:33:12 PM
Inslee is resigning early to focus on his Gubernatorial campaign. (http://www.politico.com/blogs/david-catanese/2012/03/inslee-resigning-house-seat-for-governors-race-117021.html)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 10, 2012, 02:40:37 PM
There won't be an early special; he was waiting until the latest day possible passed.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 10, 2012, 03:10:42 PM
I dislike unfilled vacancies. :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 11, 2012, 02:44:44 PM
Jan Angel, the one Republican state legislator in the 6th, won't run. I hear Kitsap County Commissioner Josh Brown, a Democrat, may get in.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 13, 2012, 06:45:19 PM
Judge Thomas McPhee has released the final ballot language for Referendum 74.  It cannot be appealed, and is much better for gay marriage supporters (and seems like less of a stretch in general to me):

Quote
This bill would allow same-sex couples to marry, preserve domestic partnerships only for seniors, and preserve the right of clergy or religious organizations to refuse to perform, recognize, or accommodate any marriage ceremony.

Should this bill be Approved or Rejected?

AG McKenna's old language was:

Quote
This bill would redefine marriage to allow same-sex couples to marry, apply marriage eligibility requirements without regard to gender and specify that laws using gender-specific terms like 'husband' and 'wife' include same-sex spouses.

Should this bill be Approved or Rejected?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on March 14, 2012, 12:34:53 AM
Nice language. Seems pretty neutral.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 19, 2012, 05:36:39 PM
Both Kitsap County Commissioner Josh Brown and Tacoma Mayor Marilyn Strickland took themselves out of contention for WA-06 today. I suppose Sheldon could still get in but Kilmer pretty much has the Democratic nomination locked up; no one else who would be serious is left.

I heard a rumor of a Tacoma Republican self-funder. We'll know soon enough I suppose.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on March 22, 2012, 05:10:49 PM
Sounds like we may have an open seat in the 28th LD...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on April 02, 2012, 11:40:45 AM
Grove Insights, a Democratic pollster from Portland polling for SEIU, says 38%-34% Inslee with 27% undecided.  Crap poll, of course, but not much else is going on lately.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 02, 2012, 01:05:00 PM
I've just sort of concluded McKenna will win and stopped worrying about it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on April 02, 2012, 06:38:02 PM
I've just sort of concluded McKenna will win and stopped worrying about it.

I've decided that its going to be close to really call until at least late september, so I just default to a slight McKenna win.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on April 02, 2012, 07:05:16 PM
I've just sort of concluded McKenna will win and stopped worrying about it.

You've given up already?  There's still seven months...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 03, 2012, 12:51:57 PM
I've just sort of concluded McKenna will win and stopped worrying about it.

You've given up already?  There's still seven months...

Inslee has been running a lousy campaign. But I guess there's still some hope.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on April 03, 2012, 05:08:23 PM
I've just sort of concluded McKenna will win and stopped worrying about it.

You've given up already?  There's still seven months...

Inslee has been running a lousy campaign. But I guess there's still some hope.

Agreed, I have seen almost nothing from the Inslee campaign...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 04, 2012, 12:40:25 AM
Then again, Gregoire somehow managed to win. But McKenna is a better candidate than Rossi...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on April 04, 2012, 02:09:43 AM
I agree that Inslee is running a weak campaign.  Given how long he has been prepping for this race I expected better.  His so-so effort would probably be good enough against a mediocre opponent -- but not against a top-tier candidate like McKenna.  I think McKenna comes across as the sharper, more dominant personality.  Inslee kinda seems like a bump on a log right now.

McKenna has wisely been campaigning in King County and it seems that Inslee has not done enough to introduce himself to the base there based on some polls I have seen.  He's not well known in the area (at least Metro Seattle) and cannot take it for granted just because he has a "D" next to his name.

Inslee's gotta turn out the base if he is going to win.  One plus is that Obama will be at the top of the ticket instead of the lackluster John Kerry that Gregoire had in 2004.  But I'm not sure how much impact the Presidential race will have on a downballot governor's race.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Napoleon on April 04, 2012, 02:46:36 AM
Well, I was hoping to see more enthusiasm for victory here since Wisconsin is a rather obvious fool's gold race.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 04, 2012, 02:57:50 AM
Hopefully it's early enough that the Inslee campaign will realize they need to change their strategy.

I still sort of think we'll have McKenna win this year, and then have Dow Constantine beat him in 2016.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on April 05, 2012, 12:46:36 AM
So more continuation of death thousand austerities instead of sensible non-regressive income taxes? Eww...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Napoleon on April 05, 2012, 03:15:55 AM
So more continuation of death thousand austerities instead of sensible non-regressive income taxes? Eww...

Ha, I think you're expecting a bit much. Still, I like Inslee and would prefer him to, say, Governor Malloy the Malleable.
And Im eyeing the Pacific Coast if I choose to move.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on April 05, 2012, 03:29:56 AM
So more continuation of death thousand austerities instead of sensible non-regressive income taxes? Eww...

Ha, I think you're expecting a bit much. Still, I like Inslee and would prefer him to, say, Governor Malloy the Malleable.
And Im eyeing the Pacific Coast if I choose to move.
I don't really expect that much, I'm pretty sure we will see austerity for the rest of our lives, soon on the national level. But Scott Walker is coming to Washington.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on April 05, 2012, 05:29:49 PM
So if healthcare gets overturned by the Supreme Court how big of a hit will McKenna take?


Nothing like backing a huge lawsuit against ObamaCare to remind liberals about your true stances!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on April 05, 2012, 09:48:08 PM
So if healthcare gets overturned by the Supreme Court how big of a hit will McKenna take?


Nothing like backing a huge lawsuit against ObamaCare to remind liberals about your true stances!


Wouldn't it getting overturned favor McKenna?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on April 05, 2012, 10:01:26 PM
So if healthcare gets overturned by the Supreme Court how big of a hit will McKenna take?


Nothing like backing a huge lawsuit against ObamaCare to remind liberals about your true stances!


Wouldn't it getting overturned favor McKenna?

Well actually, I could see how the whole thing being struck down could hurt him. I don't think he'd really take a hit if the Supreme Court struck down just the mandate though (depending on what else they decide goes down with it)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 05, 2012, 11:00:50 PM
The problem isn't liberals. The problem is suburban moderates.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on April 05, 2012, 11:04:10 PM
I agree.  I don't think the healthcare bill is nearly popular enough for it to be a net-positive for any Democrat if it's struck down.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on April 06, 2012, 12:44:29 AM
If the health care bill went down, it could help insofar as the Democratic base, which seems rather asleep/unaware with regards to Inslee, might be galvanized to turn out against McKenna.  But in terms of swinging moderate/independent voters I am very skeptical.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 06, 2012, 01:13:44 AM
http://www.komonews.com/news/local/Senator-Joseph-Zarelli-on-disability-seeks-cuts-to-Washington-benefits-146357805.html

lol.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on April 06, 2012, 08:41:47 PM
http://www.komonews.com/news/local/Senator-Joseph-Zarelli-on-disability-seeks-cuts-to-Washington-benefits-146357805.html

lol.

My sentiments exactly!

Of course, it's totally not a biased article ;).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: morgieb on April 08, 2012, 12:04:58 AM
What's McKenna's politics like?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on April 08, 2012, 01:51:03 AM

Socially ambivalent (pro-choice leans, pro-civil unions, doesn't really wanna talk about any of it); economically conservative-reformist type.

Fiscal conservative technocrat reformer type, basically.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 08, 2012, 02:14:58 AM

Socially ambivalent (pro-choice leans, pro-civil unions, doesn't really wanna talk about any of it); economically conservative-reformist type.

Fiscal conservative technocrat reformer type, basically.

Maybe that's how he tries to appear. He's a right-winger of the Kemper Freeman variety.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 08, 2012, 01:41:33 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2017936337_apwamajorityminoritydistricts1stldwritethru.html

So you get to keep Adam Smith, and can't even find candidates for the 15th LD, aside from a single college kid. Anyone with a brain knew exactly what was going to happen. Shame on the pathetic Democrats who allowed this Republican gerrymander to go through instead of being brave enough to the folks at "OneAmerica" that they were being stupid idiots. We have to suffer with this inexcusably terrible map for a whole decade now.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on April 08, 2012, 07:07:14 PM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2017936337_apwamajorityminoritydistricts1stldwritethru.html

So you get to keep Adam Smith, and can't even find candidates for the 15th LD, aside from a single college kid. Anyone with a brain knew exactly what was going to happen. Shame on the pathetic Democrats who allowed this Republican gerrymander to go through instead of being brave enough to the folks at "OneAmerica" that they were being stupid idiots. We have to suffer with this inexcusably terrible map for a whole decade now.

There there, there there.  [Pat pat, hug]


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 09, 2012, 11:13:14 PM
http://www.king5.com/news/local/Mark-Owen-son-of-Lt-Gov-Brad-Owen-charged-with-theft-forgery-146743465.html

lol again.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 11, 2012, 03:19:28 AM
http://www.king5.com/news/local/Mark-Owen-son-of-Lt-Gov-Brad-Owen-charged-with-theft-forgery-146743465.html

lol again.

Nobody else likes this story? :(

Anyway, anyone gonna go to the caucus this weekend? I'm thinking about going just to score some more points on VoteBuilder. ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on April 11, 2012, 05:05:14 PM
Looks like Washington is still growing fast, maybe another seat for the next re-districting process? Could finally draw that Eastern WA Democratic seat(Spokane-Whitman) if that's true.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on April 11, 2012, 07:09:08 PM
Looks like Washington is still growing fast, maybe another seat for the next re-districting process? Could finally draw that Eastern WA Democratic seat(Spokane-Whitman) if that's true.

Way too soon to tell ;)

What Im interested in is how much Seattle will grow. Belltown/South Lake Union/Capital Hill/First Hill's population continues to explode, and from what I've seen, it looks the current apartment boomlet will only help that (and probably continue through much of the decade). Not to mention Amazon's amazing growth plans (which means more people!).

I think Seattle's growth will exceede expectations.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on April 11, 2012, 07:17:09 PM
Looks like Washington is still growing fast, maybe another seat for the next re-districting process? Could finally draw that Eastern WA Democratic seat(Spokane-Whitman) if that's true.

Way too soon to tell ;)

What Im interested in is how much Seattle will grow. Belltown/South Lake Union/Capital Hill/First Hill's population continues to explode, and from what I've seen, it looks the current apartment boomlet will only help that (and probably continue through much of the decade). Not to mention Amazon's amazing growth plans (which means more people!).

I think Seattle's growth will exceede expectations.
Don't forget Freemont, right across the lake!
Working on  2020 neutral-committee redistricting Democratic gerrymander map right now  using same type of districts Republicans used for 2010 gerrymander.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 11, 2012, 09:51:46 PM
We only just barely got the 10th district. We won't get an 11th in 2020. Maybe 2030 if we're lucky.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on April 11, 2012, 10:08:25 PM
()
()
1st(Spokane) -47.2
4th(Vantucky) - 53.1
7th(Olympics) -56.2
8th(Bellingham)- 56.5
Obama percentages. Green & Purple are votesinks, Yellow minority-majority. Is this worse or better than Republican gerrymander?

We would probably need about 20-25% growth over a decade to get another seat. I think if light rail gets built to Vancouver on time, it could experience another population boom that would be worth 200,000 in last 2 or 3 years.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on April 11, 2012, 11:01:10 PM
light rail to Portland, I assume?

With Boeing keeping the vast majority of production instate and with one third of its workforce retiring (and needing replacement), combined with continued growth of Seattle's biotech/tech industries + Amazon AND the quick growth down in Vancouver and the Tri-cities, I'd venture to say this next decade will have a very strong growth rate.

Maybe I'm reading to much into the now, but barring another severe US economic recession, I don't see too much of a slow down.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on April 11, 2012, 11:06:41 PM
light rail to Portland, I assume?

With Boeing keeping the vast majority of production instate and with one third of its workforce retiring (and needing replacement), combined with continued growth of Seattle's biotech/tech industries + Amazon AND the quick growth down in Vancouver and the Tri-cities, I'd venture to say this next decade will have a very strong growth rate.

Maybe I'm reading to much into the now, but barring another severe US economic recession, I don't see too much of a slow down.
Yea, currently planned to open in 2019. Could be quite an epic boom of high-density population in the last couple years before the census, would probably unseat the incumbent Republican in 2020 for sure. I would predict another severe recession/depression in the next decade when the gas prices rise above $5.00 a gallon. It's unlikely to stop Washington's growth though imo.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on April 11, 2012, 11:26:17 PM
While we are growing faster than most states, our growth rate is slower than the previous decade I believe, and redistribution depends on high percentages of growth, enough to transfer large populations from one state to another. 2020 may be a very boring redistribution if current trends continue (I think there have been years in the past where barely any seats changed hands).



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on April 12, 2012, 12:04:54 AM
Anyone else got a better democratic gerrymander for '20?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on April 12, 2012, 07:24:58 PM
Anyone else got a better democratic gerrymander for '20?

Not one, unless you count a hidious map.

It looks like 12 districts would be a sweet spot for Dems. I've got a solid 9-1-2 plan, that could become 11-1 in the best of D years. Spokane/Pullman district would be generally tossup and the far western eastern washington seat with republican Pierce and King counties only voted 53 for McCain (I know, a stretch seat).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on April 12, 2012, 07:48:34 PM
Anyone else got a better democratic gerrymander for '20?

Not one, unless you count a hidious map.

It looks like 12 districts would be a sweet spot for Dems. I've got a solid 9-1-2 plan, that could become 11-1 in the best of D years. Spokane/Pullman district would be generally tossup and the far western eastern washington seat with republican Pierce and King counties only voted 53 for McCain (I know, a stretch seat).
I don't think we will be getting 12 districts for a while(2040) though, unless US enters a depression that would affect the suburban states the most, but than this whole discussion would be moot since that would cause a realignment. There will be a very big demographic change if we go to 11 districts by 2020 that should make 9-2 very easy, and maybe even 9-1-1 if the new demographics allow you to draw a cross-mountain or Spokane district as D while keeping the other a toss-up. Hispanic district in Eastern Washington would also be a possibility by 2020, but it would be a toss-up at best, considering the new coming Hispanics would mostly be non-voters, and it would require a very ugly gerrymander for it to work that would require two cross-mountain districts. It would include Yakima, Grant, Adams and Franklin and would take Hispanic precincts out of other counties in a very ugly manner. The Kennewick and Wenatchee splits would probably embarrass Ohio Republicans.
edit: got 36% Hispanic district that 50,000 short of required population under 11 districts.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 12, 2012, 09:15:39 PM
While we are growing faster than most states, our growth rate is slower than the previous decade I believe, and redistribution depends on high percentages of growth, enough to transfer large populations from one state to another. 2020 may be a very boring redistribution if current trends continue (I think there have been years in the past where barely any seats changed hands).



But if the country's growth slows down even more, that still puts us closer to a new seat.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on April 13, 2012, 01:48:29 AM
http://www.king5.com/news/politics/Kucinich-on-a-WA-congressional-run-Im-looking-at-all-my-options-147218145.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: TJ in Oregon on April 13, 2012, 06:01:05 PM
http://www.king5.com/news/politics/Kucinich-on-a-WA-congressional-run-Im-looking-at-all-my-options-147218145.html

He's all yours! :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on April 13, 2012, 06:46:48 PM
Yeah, I don't think WA will be getting up to 12 districts for quite some time, but it's still fun to play around :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on April 14, 2012, 01:05:21 AM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nba/2017976982_sacramento14.html
More good news!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 14, 2012, 01:07:32 AM
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nba/2017976982_sacramento14.html
More good news!

Is every sports team in Northern California thinking of moving? Note that most of them would stay within Northern California.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on April 15, 2012, 02:55:44 AM
Democratic caucuses tomorrow.  Past turnout:

2008: 190,000
2006: 5,200 (lol)
2004: 70,000

Whoever guesses tomorrow's caucus turnout closest wins a free order of cheesy bread!! (Seriously, I will order you cheesy bread through the internet if you care that damn much)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on April 15, 2012, 02:58:11 AM
15,000 no cheesy bread for me
edit:oops


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 15, 2012, 03:14:07 AM
10,500


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on April 15, 2012, 08:54:54 AM
12,000


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on April 15, 2012, 09:49:38 AM
21k.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 15, 2012, 10:29:55 AM
State Rep. Troy Kelley (D-28) has announced he's running for State Auditor. As a result, State Sen. Mike Carrell's opponent, a University Place City Councilmember, has dropped down to Kelley's old seat, leaving us without a candidate against Carrell and leaving the State Senate in even more danger.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 15, 2012, 01:14:00 PM
State Rep. Troy Kelley (D-28) has announced he's running for State Auditor. As a result, State Sen. Mike Carrell's opponent, a University Place City Councilmember, has dropped down to Kelley's old seat, leaving us without a candidate against Carrell and leaving the State Senate in even more danger.

I haven't been paying too much attention to the State Senate races. What is the most likely scenario for the Republicans to gain it?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 15, 2012, 01:54:35 PM
State Rep. Troy Kelley (D-28) has announced he's running for State Auditor. As a result, State Sen. Mike Carrell's opponent, a University Place City Councilmember, has dropped down to Kelley's old seat, leaving us without a candidate against Carrell and leaving the State Senate in even more danger.

I haven't been paying too much attention to the State Senate races. What is the most likely scenario for the Republicans to gain it?

Balance is 27-22 so if we lose three we're done for. Our danger seats are the 10th, the 25th and maybe the 19th. Thankfully Haugen decided to run for re-election in the 10th, but State Representative Barbara Bailey is challenging her. I'd say that one's too close to call. The 25th is gone - Kastama is running for SoS, demi-God State Rep. Bruce Dammeier is running and we don't have a candidate. Brain Hatfield in the 19th is popular but the old version of this district swung pretty hard R in 2010 and can be kinda funny. Hatfield also voted for marriage equality which probably doesn't play too well out here. His Republican opponent hasn't managed to raise much of any money though.

Our best pick-up opportunity was probably the 28th, though it was never that good of a shot and now that we don't even have a candidate one month before the filing deadline it looks lost. We have what looks to be a serious candidate in the 5th against Pflug but given the partisan lean of the seat plus her politically-savvy vote in favor of marriage equality I'm doubtful we've got a real shot there. Also might've had a shot at the 17th but the candidate we were courting decided to run for county office instead and we've got no one right now. Oh and the 41st might've been in play but Litzow voted for marriage equality and, once again, we don't have a candidate. Basically we're not going to really be playing offense anywhere.

So it's looking like a real possibility we'll end up with a 25D-24R Senate... but two of those "Democrats" are Tim Sheldon and Jim Hargrove. And then we have to defend four seats in 2014 (26th, 30th, 44th, 48th) though I suppose if 2014 turns out to be a good year for Democrats (unlikely unless Romney wins) we could win back the 6th, the 41st, the 45th or the 47th.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 15, 2012, 02:12:15 PM
The 41st is a prime pick-up opportunity. It would be a shame not to even try.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 15, 2012, 02:18:35 PM
I was hoping Randy Gordon would want to try to reclaim the seat but he's shown no interest so far.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 15, 2012, 02:35:40 PM
Not the State Senate, but with Goodman back in and the Republicans running a religious right candidate, I think that seat will be safe for us.*

*I'm now in the 45th so I care more. ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 15, 2012, 02:59:46 PM
Groan...

Quote
Dear Friend,

I have just received this communication from Washington Citizens for Kucinich which asks that I consider running for Congress in Washington State.

This week, while I was speaking in Seattle, the question came up in two television interviews: KCPQ-TV and KING-TV. I cannot approach consideration of such an unprecedented step without seeking advice from you, my friends in Washington State, whose help and generosity have enabled me to serve in the US Congress from Ohio.

I would appreciate your participation in this survey of my Washington State supporters. Please click on this link, enter your email address and zip code, and then vote. I would be grateful for your comments too and shall be reading them on Wednesday.

Your participation and your guidance is critical to my decision.

Very sincerely,

Dennis Kucinich


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 15, 2012, 05:18:18 PM
^ I was tempted to introduce a resolution welcoming Dennis to run in the 8th district at the caucus... ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on April 15, 2012, 06:14:58 PM
How did your caucuses go?  Dull and not that highly-attended here.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on April 15, 2012, 06:45:55 PM
How did your caucuses go?  Dull and not that highly-attended here.

I am registered in Olympia but live in Spokane, so sadly no caucusing for this guy.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 15, 2012, 06:50:59 PM
How did your caucuses go?  Dull and not that highly-attended here.

Yeah there were maybe around 40 people for (most of) north Sammamish. Somebody gave a speech for the sacrificial lamb running against Reichert. She sounds like a smart person and all but she will of course be crushed.

My precinct had three attendees and we got five delegates, so I'm a delegate to the legislative convention. The 8th CD convention will be about four minutes from my house, so I'll probably go to that too if possible.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 16, 2012, 09:03:11 AM
Turnout has been estimated as 9,500. Barack Obama won 98% of the vote.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on April 16, 2012, 12:56:19 PM
Gregoire just endorsed DelBene for congress.  It looks like there's a battle to become the anti-Burner.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on April 17, 2012, 02:32:35 AM
Hey the Stranger (and Seattle Times I suppose) won a Pulitzer Prize!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on April 17, 2012, 02:59:49 PM
Hey the Stranger (and Seattle Times I suppose) won a Pulitzer Prize!

Yay!

I'm rooting for DelBene (Well, really anyone but Burner).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 17, 2012, 06:24:24 PM
We have a candidate against Steve Litzow - it's Goldy's ex-wife. Though she's done other things as well.

http://www.mi-reporter.com/news/147807465.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 17, 2012, 09:38:30 PM
Hey the Stranger (and Seattle Times I suppose) won a Pulitzer Prize!

Yay!

I'm rooting for DelBene (Well, really anyone but Burner).

Yeah... I would have preferred Ruderman, but I could vote for DelBene if I had to. I'm still stuck in the 8th though so it doesn't really matter.

We have a candidate against Steve Litzow - it's Goldy's ex-wife. Though she's done other things as well.

http://www.mi-reporter.com/news/147807465.html

lol wut


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 18, 2012, 02:05:03 PM
Democratic caucuses tomorrow.  Past turnout:

2008: 190,000
2006: 5,200 (lol)
2004: 70,000

Whoever guesses tomorrow's caucus turnout closest wins a free order of cheesy bread!! (Seriously, I will order you cheesy bread through the internet if you care that damn much)

I'm awaiting my Pizza Pi coupon in the mail, Alcon.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on April 25, 2012, 09:43:18 PM
I don't live in the WA-01 but would feel comfortable voting for either Delbene or Ruderman.  Hobbs is too conservative for my taste, Rauniyar is a weak, inexperienced candidate.  I supported Burner in the past but have concluded she just does not have what it takes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 28, 2012, 11:55:03 AM
Great news - State Rep. Tim Probst (17th District down in Vancouver) is going to run against incumbent Republication State Sen. Don Benton.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on April 28, 2012, 12:24:09 PM
Great news - State Rep. Tim Probst (17th District down in Vancouver) is going to run against incumbent Republication State Sen. Don Benton.
Possible pickup?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 28, 2012, 12:34:32 PM
Great news - State Rep. Tim Probst (17th District down in Vancouver) is going to run against incumbent Republication State Sen. Don Benton.
Possible pickup?

Definitely. Toss-up for now.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 28, 2012, 04:05:55 PM
I checked out the legislative district caucus today. Ruderman gave the best speech by far (Burner  talked about meeting the Taliban and womens issues in Afghanistan...). It's too bad Ruderman seems to have lost out as the anti-Burner. DelBene was kind of boring but at least she can self-fund, I suppose.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 29, 2012, 12:39:08 PM
I'm having a difficult time coming up with a reason not to vote for Bill Finkbeiner.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 29, 2012, 12:51:20 PM
I'm having a difficult time coming up with a reason not to vote for Bill Finkbeiner.

The best way to beat the Republicans is to keep their bench as weak as possible. That's why I'm leaning towards Glenn Anderson... ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 29, 2012, 12:55:57 PM
I'm not even sure Anderson is going to end up running... he's raised virtually no money and the GOP establishment has coalesced behind Finkbeiner.

Maybe I'm just looking for a savior because it's gotten so bad down there but I feel if Finkbeiner became one of the leading Republicans in Olympia (again) they'd be slightly more palatable to work with.

Though they pretty much ran him out of town last time so maybe not.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 29, 2012, 01:01:13 PM
I'm not even sure Anderson is going to end up running... he's raised virtually no money and the GOP establishment has coalesced behind Finkbeiner.

Maybe I'm just looking for a savior because it's gotten so bad down there but I feel if Finkbeiner became one of the leading Republicans in Olympia (again) they'd be slightly more palatable to work with.

Though they pretty much ran him out of town last time so maybe not.

Well if there's a third party or minor Democrat running in the primary, that's who will get my vote. The general will be a tougher decision.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on May 01, 2012, 11:53:05 PM
So.. from what I could tell the May day protests were a little bit of a non-event compared to what the City of Seattle was talking about yesterday.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on May 03, 2012, 01:17:07 PM
Is Lisa Brown retiring permanently from politics?

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2018131763_apwamajorityleaderretiring2ndldwritethru.html

Also could her leaving the race throw a seat to the republicans?

Personally I really liked Brown so this is a bit of a disappointment.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 03, 2012, 01:21:21 PM
Huh, surprising. There were rumors she wanted to run against Brad Owen but it seems like she decided to just pack it in entirely.

The seat shouldn't be in danger.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 13, 2012, 02:09:41 AM
1st CD update:

Ruderman has won the the sole endorsements of the 1st and 45th LD Democrats.

Burner has won the sole endorsement of the 42nd LD Democrats.

The 44th LD Democrats endorsed all five candidates (lol poor Steve Hobbs).

I think that leaves the 39th, which I haven't heard anything from.

Anyway, you'd think Democrats in Ferndale and Blaine would be aware Darcy Burner is going to get obliterated up there... but I suppose Burner got a boost from the Bellingham portions of the 42nd (which aren't actually in the 1st, but oh well).

I'm cautiously optimistic that Ruderman might pull of an upset.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 13, 2012, 11:35:24 AM
DelBene got the sole endorsement of the AFL-CIO at their statewide convention last week.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 13, 2012, 12:01:03 PM
DelBene got the sole endorsement of the AFL-CIO at their statewide convention last week.

She's the establishment candidate, no question about that. She'd probably beat Koster, but I see no reason to get stuck with a boring DLC-style Congresswoman when we have a better choice. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 13, 2012, 12:09:58 PM
I'm quite sure Ruderman would join the New Democrats caucus too, bgwah. She may not be the establishment candidate but there isn't much difference between her and DelBene in terms of ideology and priorities.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on May 13, 2012, 02:39:27 PM
DelBene got the sole endorsement of the AFL-CIO at their statewide convention last week.

She's the establishment candidate, no question about that. She'd probably beat Koster, but I see no reason to get stuck with a boring DLC-style Congresswoman when we have a better choice. :)

Who is it? Burner, who would almost surely lose to Koster? I will easily take a real Blue Dog, not only DLC, if he/she is the only one able to win))))


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 13, 2012, 06:52:36 PM
I'm quite sure Ruderman would join the New Democrats caucus too, bgwah. She may not be the establishment candidate but there isn't much difference between her and DelBene in terms of ideology and priorities.

I'm not convinced of that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on May 14, 2012, 04:34:09 PM
What is the relationship between AFL-CIO and New Democrats? I am guessing it would probably be more aligned with progressives.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on May 15, 2012, 01:19:12 AM
Glenn Anderson ended up filing...otherwise, not much excitement on day one that I can find.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on May 15, 2012, 05:04:14 AM
I am like 90% sure that Jim Postma (R-Steilacoom), Adam Smith's 2008 opponent, filed against Smith in the 9th CD by habit.  Sucks for him, considering that Steilacoom is now in the 10th CD, and the nonrefundable filing fee for congress is $1,740.

I'm also kind of puzzled that I haven't seen anyone else notice this.  Am I missing something?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 15, 2012, 09:33:31 AM
I'm under the impression that he's aware he's no longer in the 9th but he just really wants to run against Adam Smith.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 15, 2012, 11:52:43 AM
Looks like  Maureen Walsh has a primary challenger. No Democrats running, though. The top two primary might be what saves her in the end.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 15, 2012, 12:08:03 PM
Indies/third parties:

16th Rep 2: Terry Nealey (American Heritage)
 - Good chance Ds don't run anyone here and Nealey gets to the general.
36th Rep 2: Linde Knighton (Progressive)
 - This is the seat in Seattle with like 8 Democratic candidates. I guess it's not impossible Knighton gets to the general because of that. There aren't any Rs (yet) so they could possibly vote for the only non-Democrat.
43rd Rep 2: Kshama Sawant (Socialist)
 - Very good chance Rs don't bother running anyone here.
43rd Rep 2: Gregory Gadow (Independent)
 - See above. Too bad one of them doesn't run for the other seat, but maybe they both just dislike Chopp.
27th Sen: Jesse Hill (Independent)
 - Maybe Alcon knows something.
35th Rep 2: Glenn Gaither (Independent)
 - Probably won't get to the general

Also worth mentioning:
31st Rep 2: Christopher Hurst (Independent Dem)
 - I guess he figures it worked last time!
40th Senate: John Swapp (Independent GOP)
 - Maybe he was inspired by Hurst. The 40th is still a Bellingham/San Juan district that is solid D.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on May 15, 2012, 01:50:57 PM
Jesse "The Traveller" Hill is a consistent nuisance in Pierce County politics.  He advocates for marijuana, masturbation and a few other pet causes and has a bad habit of getting too interested in female politicians.  He's currently serving jail time for intimidating a judge.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on May 15, 2012, 02:47:57 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/13/health/policy/whooping-cough-epidemic-hits-washington-state.html

Quote
MOUNT VERNON, Wash. — Whooping cough, or pertussis, a highly infectious respiratory disease once considered doomed by science, has struck Washington State this spring with a severity that health officials say could surpass the toll of any year since the 1940s, before a vaccine went into wide use.

Although no deaths have been reported so far this year, the state has declared an epidemic and public health officials say the numbers are staggering: 1,284 cases through early May, the most in at least three decades and 10 times last year’s total at this time, 128.

http://www.doh.wa.gov/Publicat/2011_news/11-083.htm

Quote
Washington kindergarteners do not meet state or national goals for any required immunizations when they enter school, according to a report today by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6021a4.htm). Our state has the highest exemption rate in the country; 6.2 percent of kindergarteners have a parent-signed exemption form for one or more vaccines. Washington’s exemption rates have more than doubled over the last 10 years.

Time for a PNW cough-fest!

http://www.katu.com/news/local/New-numbers-show-of-unvaccinated-children-increasing-150549655.html

Quote
PORTLAND, Ore. - As of May 3, Oregon had 156 reported cases of whooping cough, including three in the Riverdale School District in Multnomah County. But despite outbreaks like this, new numbers reveal an increasing number of children in local schools aren’t getting all their vaccines.

Numbers just released for the 2011-2012 school year reveal more Oregon parents are choosing not to get their children vaccinated for religious reasons. It's a trend that's steadily increased over the last 12 years.

Last year, 5.6 percent of kindergartners in the state had a religious exemption for at least one vaccine. That went up .2 percent this school year. State immunization officials say that at 6 percent, the risk for outbreaks gets serious.

()

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 18, 2012, 01:18:24 AM
16th Rep 2: Terry Nealey (American Heritage)
 - Good chance Ds don't run anyone here and Nealey gets to the general.

Eh? Terry Nealey is the incumbent Republican and Sam Reed's site doesn't list him having an opponent.

Cheryl Pflug filed for re-election using "Independent Gop" (sic)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 18, 2012, 01:39:43 AM
16th Rep 2: Terry Nealey (American Heritage)
 - Good chance Ds don't run anyone here and Nealey gets to the general.

Eh? Terry Nealey is the incumbent Republican and Sam Reed's site doesn't list him having an opponent.

Cheryl Pflug filed for re-election using "Independent Gop" (sic)

The PDC has her listed as AH. *Shrug*

The SoS site is much easier to look at. I notice Glenn Anderson also filed for Lt. Governor as "Indep Republican," lol.

Personally I find this to be an annoying practice since they aren't actually independents... but whatever...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 18, 2012, 08:13:21 PM
Oh no, looks like we've lost Mike the Mover to the Republicans! :P

Goodspaceguy is now running under the "Employmentwealth Party."

Brad Owen is running as a member of the "Democrat Party," how appropriate. Also a "Neopopulist" running for Lt. Governor, whose first Google result (http://tdn.com/news/local/article_2739604a-cdea-11e0-b603-001cc4c002e0.html) seems to be about his 116mph high speed chase followed by his seeking sanctuary in a church. Fun!

Also just noticed Clint Didier is back, this time running against Goldmark for CPL.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 18, 2012, 08:28:38 PM
So is the Republican running for Secretary of State just following Sam Reed around, trying to get his jobs after he leaves them? She became Thurston County Auditor when he was elected Secretary of State.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 18, 2012, 09:50:01 PM
So is the Republican running for Secretary of State just following Sam Reed around, trying to get his jobs after he leaves them? She became Thurston County Auditor when he was elected Secretary of State.

She has his blessing; she's his protégée.

Cheryl Pflug has a serious challenger from the right. It'll be an interesting primary.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on May 19, 2012, 04:41:00 AM
I never thought I'd see the day where a 30-year-old liberal Democrat would run unopposed for an open leg seat in Bellevue.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 19, 2012, 12:54:21 PM
16th Rep 2: Terry Nealey (American Heritage)
 - Good chance Ds don't run anyone here and Nealey gets to the general.

Eh? Terry Nealey is the incumbent Republican and Sam Reed's site doesn't list him having an opponent.

Cheryl Pflug filed for re-election using "Independent Gop" (sic)

I noticed that in January... I thought I posted about it but I guess not.

The Democrats are also running their first serious candidate in the 5th in eight years. Of course it's probably more Republican now, go figure. lol. Still, if Pflug didn't make the general and it ended up being Toft vs Mullet, the Democrats might be able to pick up the seat in an upset like they did in 1992. I'm just being optimistic, though. :)

I never thought I'd see the day where a 30-year-old liberal Democrat would run unopposed for an open leg seat in Bellevue.

I hadn't seen that yet! Hopefully we'll get rid of Litzow, too, while we're at it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 19, 2012, 02:25:09 PM
Also, am I missing something here or... does Zarelli retiring leave no Republican running for his seat? That's a strong R seat, isn't it?

I'm confused.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 19, 2012, 02:27:37 PM
Candidates for legislative districts entirely within a county file with the county auditors and not the Secretary of State. Sam Reed's site is missing some of those legislative candidates (for instance, State Representative Ann Rivers is running for Zarelli's seat).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 19, 2012, 02:30:58 PM
Oh, that makes sense. I saw her name in the article I read but didn't see her listed.

Is there a complete list of filed candidates anywhere?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 20, 2012, 06:43:40 PM
^ Also looks like the Democrat in Bellevue Alcon mentioned does indeed have a Republican opponent, if you look at the King County Elections website.

Clibborn doesn't seem to have an opponent, though. But I think that may have happened before.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 20, 2012, 06:50:49 PM
I think Sam Reed's website will be updated with everything by Wednesday.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 21, 2012, 11:29:55 PM
Gregoire just appointed Cheryl Pflug to some government board; she's withdrawn from the race.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 21, 2012, 11:42:05 PM
Gregoire just appointed Cheryl Pflug to some government board; she's withdrawn from the race.

That's too bad. Every time there's a Republican I start to like...

How safe is it to assume she was chased out by the theocratic bigots?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 22, 2012, 12:12:39 AM
Ernest Huber has a ton of signs in Sammamish and Issaquah. Not that I think he'll beat Reichert or anything, but it kind of amuses me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 30, 2012, 06:24:00 PM
Tim Eyman's 2/3 requirement for a tax increase was declared unconstitutional by a King County Superior Court today. It'll be appealed of course and Eyman will probably still continue to place it on the ballot.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on May 30, 2012, 07:19:01 PM
Tim Eyman's 2/3 requirement for a tax increase was declared unconstitutional by a King County Superior Court today. It'll be appealed of course and Eyman will probably still continue to place it on the ballot.

:D :D :D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 30, 2012, 07:35:24 PM
Tim Eyman's 2/3 requirement for a tax increase was declared unconstitutional by a King County Superior Court today. It'll be appealed of course and Eyman will probably still continue to place it on the ballot.

:D :D :D

:D :D :D X100

Awesome news!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 01, 2012, 12:47:40 AM
Strategies 360 poll
May 22-24
500 LV's

Poll sample D39%, R34%, I19% (30-23-24 before leaners)

Approval
Murray: 52-33 (+19)
McKenna: 37-19 (+18)
Cantwell: 48-30 (+18)
Inslee: 29-17 (+12)
Obama: 54-43 (+11)
Baumgartner: 6-5 (+1)
Gregoire: 44-44 (tie)
Romney: 39-47 (-8)
Democrats in Congress: 39-49 (-10)
Republicans in Congress: 35-55 (-20)
U.S. Congress: 26-61 (-35)

U.S. President (Obama +11)
Obama 51%
Romney 40%

U.S. Congress Generic (Democrat +3)
Democratic 44%
Republican 41%

Governor (McKenna +4)
Inslee 39%
McKenna 43%

Gay marriage (Legal +21)
Legal 54%
Illegal 33%

Marijuana legalization (Tie)
Legal 43%
Illegal 43%

Charter schools (Support +26)
Support 51%
Oppose 25%

Education Trust Fund (Support +22)
Support 57%
Oppose 35%

More http://www.strategies360.com/images/stories/buzz/s360_may2012_wastatetoplines.pdf


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: The Mikado on June 01, 2012, 12:44:15 PM

Marijuana legalization (Tie)
Legal 43%
Illegal 43%

Would I be correct in assuming that legalization needs to poll significantly higher than 43% in order to have a real chance on election day?  This seems like one of those things that the undecideds would lean illegal.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 01, 2012, 03:23:41 PM
WA-01 poll from King5/SurveyUSA

Koster - R: 46%
Burner - D: 19%
Ruderman - D: 6%
DelBene - D: 4%
Hobbs - D: 4%
Ishmael - I: 4%
Rauniyar - D: 1%

Burner does the best in the head-to-heads with Koster, losing 48-39. Ruderman and DelBene are behind him 49-32, Hobbs 47-31 and Rauniyar 50-28.

There's some weirdness in it though; it has Romney leading Obama 45-44 in the district and McKenna crushing Inslee 52-38. The primary electorate is going to be a older/more conservative than the general of course but that still seems a few points too red.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 01, 2012, 10:05:28 PM
Those are some very depressing numbers. I'm not surprised Burner is the top Democrat but 3x the runner-up? I just can't believe we're going to lose this seat. Sigh.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on June 02, 2012, 01:46:38 AM
Those are some very depressing numbers. I'm not surprised Burner is the top Democrat but 3x the runner-up? I just can't believe we're going to lose this seat. Sigh.

Not to mention that it's completely Democrats' fault. Just so we could have a minority-majority seat that will be represented by a White guy for 10 years...

It's sad that WA will have an even delegation for the next decade because of redistricting (except in a Democratic wave year).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 02, 2012, 02:00:09 AM
I don't think all hope is lost. The sample appears a little too Republican (Romney ahead 45-44 in a district that went 57% for Obama in 2008?) and the general election campaign hasn't really started. Once the Democrats unify and start hammering Koster for being the right-wing nut he is I suspect our numbers will improve no matter who the nominee is. It'll still be close in the end of course; it's a swing district.

And on the nomination front, DelBene is going to start carpet bombing the airwaves and mailboxes pretty soon. I think in the end it'll be pretty close between them (not really seeing too viable of a pathway for Ruderman unless Burner and Delbene go nuclear on each other).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 02, 2012, 02:07:07 AM
Koster would probably be a one-termer if he won, but who knows, the Democrats might try Burner for a fourth time...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 02, 2012, 04:40:35 PM
The Washington State Democrats have nominated Kathleen Drew for Secretary of State and Craig Pridemore for State Auditor. No one received enough votes to get the nomination in the 1st CD but Burner came the closest with 39 followed by Ruderman with 29, Delbene with 15, "No Endorsement" with 6, Rauniyar with 5 and Hobbs with 1 (lol). A candidate needed 48 votes to win the nomination.

On the Republican side Bill Finkbeiner was nominated for Lt. Governor (Glenn Anderson wasn't even allowed to speak). Brad Owen was nowhere to be seen at the Democratic convention and was never mentioned from the podium. I think he might be in real trouble, especially if McKenna trounces Inslee.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on June 02, 2012, 04:51:46 PM
How is it looking at the state legislative level?  Will Democrats regain the ground they lost in 2010 in both chambers? 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 02, 2012, 05:07:29 PM
State Senate situation is likely to worsen, could even get to 25-24 with Tim Sheldon and Jim Hargrove holding the balance of power. State House will probably remain about the same; we have a few pick-up opportunities (6th, 25th, 47th, maybe the 10th and the 17th) but also some potential losses (17th, 26th, 28th, 30th, 44th).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 02, 2012, 05:14:19 PM
So a Republican Governor, State Senate, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, and 5-5 split Congressional delegate is looking possible. Ugh.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 02, 2012, 05:19:16 PM
Don't forget the Republican Secretary of State :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 02, 2012, 05:26:36 PM
Don't forget the Republican Secretary of State :(

It's just upsetting to sit back and see it all happening.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on June 04, 2012, 08:36:10 PM
I would be surprised if Dunn won the AG race and honestly, my opinion of Owen is low so I cannot work up any concern over his losing.

The governor, WA-01, and SoS races are cause for concern, however.  I greatly fear we are going to wind up with McKenna and the chatter I continue to hear and read about Inslee's campaign is negative.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Napoleon on June 04, 2012, 09:00:12 PM
Inslee needs to move fast or he wont have an opportunity to catch up.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 04, 2012, 10:24:06 PM
The local media is in love with Rob McKenna, so that won't be easy.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 05, 2012, 12:28:20 PM
Washington Conservation Voters just endorsed Bill Finkbeiner.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 05, 2012, 04:32:04 PM
I have never seen so few people in local orgs care about a statewide elected Democrat than with Brad Owen.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 06, 2012, 12:50:06 AM
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

We're in the running for another PPP poll.  Someone has apparently cheated for us...but vote anyway, so it looks legitimate, I guess?

As always, they'll accept question suggestions.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 11, 2012, 02:48:59 AM
So, this charter school thing is shaping up to be pretty interesting.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on June 11, 2012, 05:55:10 PM
So, this charter school thing is shaping up to be pretty interesting.
Charter schools are a monumental waste of money. I really hope it fails.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 11, 2012, 08:52:07 PM
Brian Sonntag has endorsed Rob McKenna. So has Tim Sheldon.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 11, 2012, 09:03:01 PM
Brian Sonntag has endorsed Rob McKenna. So has Tim Sheldon.

Is he that upset about not getting to be the nominee?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 11, 2012, 09:10:21 PM
He endorsed McKenna in 2008 too. I think he's just a dick.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on June 12, 2012, 06:25:39 PM
Debate right now in Spokane. I'm watching it right now.

I think McKenna will win... He's just got everything going for him.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 12, 2012, 11:22:37 PM
I just watched the debate. Inslee did better than I thought he would.

McKenna's math makes no sense. Not that Inslee was terribly specific or anything. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on June 13, 2012, 09:40:23 PM
I just watched the debate. Inslee did better than I thought he would.

McKenna's math makes no sense. Not that Inslee was terribly specific or anything. :P

Inslee is still keeping up with this ambiguity act. Not helpful when your at risk of fading into the backround. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 14, 2012, 05:48:15 PM
You've got to be f**cking kidding me: http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/2012/06/14/dino-rossi-a-possible-fill-in-for-pflug/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 14, 2012, 10:00:22 PM
You've got to be f**cking kidding me: http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/2012/06/14/dino-rossi-a-possible-fill-in-for-pflug/

I'm glad I'm moving!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 14, 2012, 11:37:34 PM
sigh darcy burner

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2012/06/14/stand-up-for-abortion-darcy-doubles-down/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 15, 2012, 12:25:36 AM
sigh darcy burner

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2012/06/14/stand-up-for-abortion-darcy-doubles-down/

5-5


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on June 15, 2012, 12:30:08 AM
I...just...

2/10, would not support again.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 15, 2012, 06:05:27 AM
I feel like we've lost that loving feeling.  this thread just isn't as active as it used to be.

I fenagled our way to being polled by PPP this weekend, by the way.  It's a long story involving disabled cookies, multiple public wi-fi spots, and a friend who knows a guy who blogs for The Stranger.

In any case, expect new numbers early next week on Prez, U.S. Senate, Governor, gay marriage, pot, and maybe the other initiatives.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 15, 2012, 11:38:35 AM
Is Burner aware she has to win a general election after she wins the primary? Because she's doing a very good job with the latter. Not so much the former.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on June 15, 2012, 07:56:38 PM
I feel like we've lost that loving feeling.  this thread just isn't as active as it used to be.

In any case, expect new numbers early next week on Prez, U.S. Senate, Governor, gay marriage, pot, and maybe the other initiatives.

True, but that'll likely change as we get through the summer. Anway, I'm glad you did do that, I'm really interested in the pot and of course, the gay marriage numbers.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 18, 2012, 03:03:30 PM
PPP:

"Tomorrow we'll have Colorado President and Washington Governor/Gay Marriage/Marijuana legalization numbers"

"Going to have good news for pro-gay marriage side in WA tomorrow. Pretty decent chance equality advocates go 4 for 4 this fall"


"In Washington state 22% of Republicans support legalizing marijuana, only 10% support legalizing gay marriage"


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 18, 2012, 06:43:56 PM
So, this isn't getting much press, but Sam Reed has apparently eliminated the state Voters' Guide and the only counties picking up the slack are King, Kitsap, Pierce, and Snohomish.   This is unfortunate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 18, 2012, 06:47:08 PM
I think he just cut it for the primary. And I'm pretty sure there wasn't one in 2010 either.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 19, 2012, 01:10:57 AM
Between this, and his awful postmarking proposal, I'm sure glad I avoided being a moderate hero by not voting for him in 2008... :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 19, 2012, 01:25:01 AM
I'm sure he didn't want to do it. His budget got slashed just like every other state agency. Mailing and printing the voters' guide costs millions of dollars.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 19, 2012, 01:27:04 AM
I'm sure he didn't want to do it. His budget got slashed just like every other state agency. Mailing and printing the voters' guide costs millions of dollars.

That's MH talk. ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 22, 2012, 03:32:55 AM
This is kind of fun.  Here's party ballots in the 2008 Presidential Primary if only men/women voted:

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on June 22, 2012, 08:01:17 AM
Wow, Yakima women ftw!  :D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 23, 2012, 11:46:02 AM
That is pretty cool. Now you just need a map showing the gender difference. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 24, 2012, 01:46:56 PM
I was wondering how long it might be before Grays Harbor turns into a Lean R county. I decided to see how much more Democratic it has been than the state using gubernatorial and senatorial elections dating back to statehood and added a polynomial trend line (that's what Excel calls it, at least). As the graph shows us, the direction it's trending can change, but on its current course it could definitely be a Republican county by the 2020s.

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 25, 2012, 10:04:05 PM
I got polled for the first time today. I got the impression it was a pro-Roger Goodman push poll.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 27, 2012, 03:23:59 AM
I was wondering how long it might be before Grays Harbor turns into a Lean R county. I decided to see how much more Democratic it has been than the state using gubernatorial and senatorial elections dating back to statehood and added a polynomial trend line (that's what Excel calls it, at least). As the graph shows us, the direction it's trending can change, but on its current course it could definitely be a Republican county by the 2020s.

()

I wish I knew more about politics in the coast counties.  Another interesting thing I noticed is that both coastal counties had big partisan swings between the 2008 primary and General.

Grays went from to 64% Democratic to 56%, and if you subtract primary ballots from the GE result, you get only about 50.7% of "new" ballots being Democratic.

Pacific went from 63% Democratic to 55%, making 53% of the new ballot estimate Republican.

I wonder where the Dems are losing support: if the Democrats have just been running candidates that are bad for the area, or if swing voters are genuinely trending GOP there long-term.

It's interesting, because they're not exactly rabidly socially conservative areas, and Obama didn't exactly get destroyed there in the primaries.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 27, 2012, 03:40:00 AM
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WA_062612.pdf

According to PPP, the most popular city in Washington is Spokane (56-14) over Seattle (58-26).  I'm not a Spokane hater -- Brown's Addition seems nice and all.  But this is gross and strange.  Also faring well are Vancouver (49-10), which some people might have thought meant Canada's, and Olympia (48-20).  Tacoma (33-40) did not do so well.

Our local companies are pretty popular: Starbucks (46-25) and especially Microsoft (72-14).

Washingtonians prefer PCs over Macs, 44%-22%.

Only 7% of Washingtonians self-identify as hipsters, while 76% do not, and 17% are too old to know what that means.

Republicans hate Seattle, Tacoma, and Macs, and are ambivalent on Olympia.

Democrats like everything, especially Starbucks.

Republicans are more likely to call themselves hipsters -- 11% versus 7% for Democrats, proving that no hipsters call themselves hipsters, and Republicans have problems with irony.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 27, 2012, 08:37:02 PM
So more "like" Seattle than Spokane. Seattle just has a bigger group of haters.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on June 27, 2012, 10:35:48 PM
Does anyone know what percentage Kerry got in the new 1st? 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 27, 2012, 11:26:10 PM
I went to the 1st district debate tonight. Still looking like Darcy will be the nominee. Sigh.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on June 28, 2012, 06:23:19 PM
Rob McKenna now opposes repealing Obamacare (http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2012/06/28/mckenna-opposes-repeal-of-federal-health-care-law/). 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 28, 2012, 09:06:12 PM
Rob McKenna now opposes repealing Obamacare (http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2012/06/28/mckenna-opposes-repeal-of-federal-health-care-law/). 

Hilarious. He looks pretty stupid right now. Maybe he isn't as strong of a candidate as we thought.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on June 29, 2012, 12:59:07 AM
Rob McKenna now opposes repealing Obamacare (http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2012/06/28/mckenna-opposes-repeal-of-federal-health-care-law/). 

Hilarious. He looks pretty stupid right now. Maybe he isn't as strong of a candidate as we thought.
Something that's supposed to be kept quiet...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Napoleon on June 29, 2012, 01:45:28 AM
Is McKenna a troll?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 29, 2012, 02:12:42 AM
Not sure if this has been mentioned, but DelBene is on the air with a huge ad buy as of a few days ago and will be on air through the primary.

We'll see what Q2 fundraising totals look like, but I think there's a good chance she'll have the airwaves to herself.

Pretty good bio ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2StoaXE07TE&feature=player_embedded


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 29, 2012, 07:27:35 PM
Not sure if this has been mentioned, but DelBene is on the air with a huge ad buy as of a few days ago and will be on air through the primary.

We'll see what Q2 fundraising totals look like, but I think there's a good chance she'll have the airwaves to herself.

Pretty good bio ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2StoaXE07TE&feature=player_embedded

She's pretty boring. I wish Ruderman (or even Hobbs) would emerge as the anti-Burner. I'm just not optimistic at all about this race, though.



McKenna is a crappy lawyer, continued:
http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/06/29/rob-mckenna-illegally-bars-stranger-reporter-from-press-conference

Also, I love the Stranger's take on the Seattle Times' endorsement of McKenna: http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/06/29/seattle-times-endorses-rob-mckenna-for-governor



I am starting to feel optimistic about the gubernatorial election, though. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 30, 2012, 01:10:28 AM
Here are some WA-01 fundraising numbers I pulled from the FEC:

Total receipts
372k - DelBene
362k - Ruderman
338k - Koster
307k - Burner
169k - Rauniyar
119k - Hobbs

Cash on hand
318k - DelBene
220k - Ruderman
124k - Rauinyar
115k - Burner
104k - Koster
99k - Hobbs


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: MaxQue on June 30, 2012, 01:52:00 AM
Why DelBene try so hard? She changed districts and runs against someone else than Reichert?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 30, 2012, 02:00:20 AM
She didn't change districts (nor did Burner). They were redistricted into the 1st and out of the 8th.

Her going on the air in June indicates that either a) she had an incredible fundraising quarter or more likely b) she pumped in a big chunk of her own cash in since the last reporting period.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 30, 2012, 02:03:49 AM
Also, apparently The Seattle Times endorsed Hobbs this past weekend. Which I guess shouldn't be too surprising, but they did like DelBene quite a bit in 2010.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on July 01, 2012, 11:41:21 PM
Rob McKenna now opposes repealing Obamacare (http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2012/06/28/mckenna-opposes-repeal-of-federal-health-care-law/). 

Hilarious. He looks pretty stupid right now. Maybe he isn't as strong of a candidate as we thought.

Honestly, he should of just not filed that lawsuit with the other Republican AGs.

So.... The question is: does this make independents think he's even more moderate or a flip-flopper?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on July 02, 2012, 02:57:35 AM
Rob McKenna now opposes repealing Obamacare (http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2012/06/28/mckenna-opposes-repeal-of-federal-health-care-law/).  

Hilarious. He looks pretty stupid right now. Maybe he isn't as strong of a candidate as we thought.

Honestly, he should of just not filed that lawsuit with the other Republican AGs.

So.... The question is: does this make independents think he's even more moderate or a flip-flopper?

Both. But, as a moderate AND Independent, i would still prefer him over Inslee.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 02, 2012, 03:04:59 AM
McKenna only filed the lawsuit to guarantee he wouldn't have a primary challenger.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 02, 2012, 08:21:25 PM
I'm really upset that Burner is going to get the nomination.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 02, 2012, 11:05:51 PM
http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/07/02/re-the-littlest-pundit

haha, isn't that the kid from that fox show you guys did?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 02, 2012, 11:08:21 PM
http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/07/02/re-the-littlest-pundit

haha, isn't that the kid from that fox show you guys did?

yep.

We got a laugh out of that this afternoon.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 02, 2012, 11:23:59 PM
I got the feeling it was always his mother pushing him to be who he was... then he grew up and learned stuff.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 02, 2012, 11:32:39 PM
My parents never pushed religion or politics on me, or even really talked about them.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on July 03, 2012, 12:42:36 PM
I guess this got missed, but not surprisingly, the Seattle Times Editorial Board endorsed McKenna. Did they also endorse Rossi in 2008?

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorials/2018563522_edit01mckenna.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 03, 2012, 08:50:40 PM
I guess this got missed, but not surprisingly, the Seattle Times Editorial Board endorsed McKenna. Did they also endorse Rossi in 2008?

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorials/2018563522_edit01mckenna.html


Yeah, they endorsed Rossi in both of his runs for Governor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on July 04, 2012, 11:18:54 AM
Surprised this hasn't been posted yet, but Initiative 1192 -which defines marriage as being exclusively a heterosexual institution- did not have enough valid signatures to make the ballot (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2018585606_signatures03.html), which leaves Referendum 74 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_Referendum_74_(2012)).  


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 04, 2012, 11:25:11 AM
It was an effort to confuse voters - in order for gay marriage to pass you would have needed to vote "Approve" on R-74 and "No" on I-1192. Which would have been difficult to explain.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on July 07, 2012, 10:43:52 AM
Two more initiatives are set to join the November ballot (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2018624371_initiatives07m.html).

And here is the full list that you can expect to see when you come out and vote:

Quote
Referendum 74: Allows voters to either affirm or reject a law passed by the Legislature this year that legalizes same-sex marriage but preserves the right of religious organizations to refuse any marriage ceremony.

Initiative 502: Legalizes, regulates and taxes the recreational use of marijuana for those 21 years and older.

Initiative 1185: Requires two-thirds support in the state House and Senate, or voter approval, to raise taxes.

Initiative 1240: Authorizes 40 public charter schools over a five-year period, to be approved and overseen by the state.

Senate Joint Resolution 8221: Modifies the state constitution to phase down Washington's debt-limit calculation, in three steps, from 9 percent to 8 percent.

Senate Joint Resolution 8223: Modifies the state constitution to allow the University of Washington and Washington State University to invest specified public funds, if authorized by the Legislature.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on July 07, 2012, 10:49:51 AM
I'd vote:

Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Supersonic on July 07, 2012, 03:21:05 PM
Hmm, I would vote:

Yes
No
Unsure, Lean Yes
Yes
Yes
No


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 07, 2012, 03:56:02 PM
Yes
Yes
No
No (seriously guys? Charter schools are gross)

Don't know what the last two are but if they got supermajorities in both chambers of the legislature they're probably good ideas. Lean Yes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on July 07, 2012, 04:01:12 PM
Why is everyone here so opposed to charter schools? 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: tmthforu94 on July 07, 2012, 04:15:44 PM
Why is everyone here so opposed to charter schools? 
I don't get it either. As someone who has actually frequently been to one (Mom taught at one), I think they can be very beneficial.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 07, 2012, 04:19:28 PM
Charter schools misdiagnose what the problem is with our education system. It isn't overburdensome state/local rules, it's a lack of funding. Class sizes are way too big (causing teachers to become overworked and for individualized attention to falter) and the amount of pay is a deterrent for a lot of individuals who would make fantastic teachers (pretty simple concept that applies to any industry: pay people more, get better people interested in the job).

I'm all for trying out new educational strategies and methods - and I'm not saying charter schools are evil or anything (my gross comment was hyperbole), but everything that charter schools aim to accomplish can be done by making changes to the existing public school system; it's completely unnecessary to create a new system which is funded by taking public dollars away from existing schools and giving it to unelected management teams. Also, I know it's en vogue to dislike teachers' unions, but I think they have a right to organize in their workplace just like any other worker does.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on July 07, 2012, 04:48:38 PM
My votes:

Referendum 74: Yes
Initiative 502:  Yes
Initiative 1185: Hell no (beyond sick of Tim Eyman)
Initiative 1240: Undecided
Senate Joint Resolution 8221:  Undecided/don't understand
Senate Joint Resolution 8223:  Undecided/don't understand


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on July 07, 2012, 05:41:02 PM
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes?
Yes

As Meeker stated above, charter schools aren't a panacea and I don't believe they will benefit Washington. I do think they have a place... but again, not on a large scale in Washington.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on July 07, 2012, 05:46:01 PM
Referendum 74: Yes
Initiative 502:  Yes
Initiative 1185: NO
Initiative 1240: No (I personally don't care for charter schools, for many of the same reasons that Meeker stated).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on July 07, 2012, 09:56:12 PM
Meeker sold me on no on the charter schools thing, I didn't think it sounded bad because they'd all be state-ran but yeah this funding could be done better with existing public schools.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Mercenary on July 08, 2012, 06:40:12 AM
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

Although realistically, none of the things are that big enough of  deal to me to care what the results are and I may not even end up voting.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 08, 2012, 02:36:28 PM
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

Although realistically, none of the things are that big enough of  deal to me to care what the results are and I may not even end up voting.

Why No on R-74?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Mercenary on July 09, 2012, 02:29:46 AM
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

Although realistically, none of the things are that big enough of  deal to me to care what the results are and I may not even end up voting.

Why No on R-74?

Never mind that, I am changing my position on it to Yes.
I am pretty socially conservative and I personally think homosexual actvity is wrong. But I've come to the conclusion just within the last day or so that it is still best to promote a marriage even when it is between two members of the same sex as it encourages monogamy and a better environment for a family if the individuals choose to adopt. Also it helps, over time, to decrease discrimination. My reason for opposing it originally is I felt it is a legal endorsement that homosexuality is to be fine and good. But in the end, even though I disagree that such activity is good or to be encouraged, I have decided it will do more good than bad to promote marriages. This was something I went back and forth on for a while now, but just last night, not long after posting that message did I change my mind.

Thinking about changing my position on the tax one too. I generally distrust the state, even though I distrust corporations just as much and am left of center, so I tend to think restricting their ability to do anything easily is generally for the best. But then didn't the 2/3 thing cause a lot of problems with California and now their in massive amounts of debt and all. And really, if the state did what I wanted them to do, they'd need to raise the taxes anyway. I want the budget producing surpluses for emergency times and I want us to have a state healthcare for all residents and reduce our higher education costs as well as invest more in improving our environment and infrastructure.... Weird to think I've drifted quite a ways from being a libertarian not more than a few months ago.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 09, 2012, 04:24:11 AM
Mercenary: Oh, cool.  That was actually basically was I was going to argue :P I appreciate that you've been thinking on it.

I also agree on the 2/3 issue.  I also think it's a fairly arbitrary way of restricting governmental spending.  I think a lot of voters think that this requires the legislature to build consensus on "moderate, sane spending" but in practice it just throws a monkey wrench in the legislation process.  There's definitely plenty of people in the state who are fine with that, but it's nowhere near the percent who keeps voting for Eyman's stuff.

***

The stuff I hear about charter schools is fairly gnarly.  I also understand the concern about lack of local control.  However, I'd like to look more at the vaunted Stanford study that showed that charter schools generally have worse results.  I'm a little suspicious, honestly, because if this study is as damning to the empirical case for charter schools as it's said to be, I don't understand why the reformers are so passionate about this.  Unless it's "if A is flawed, then B" thinking.

I'm glad the other ballot items are pretty straightforward, because I-1240 is pretty complicated either way (some questions about the wording)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 09, 2012, 05:12:23 PM
Ugh, it happened: http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/07/09/dino-rossi-is-a-senator


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on July 09, 2012, 05:42:43 PM
R-74: Undecided, probably lean yes in the end
I-502: No
I-1185: Hell no
I-1240: Undecided, lean yes though I really don't care very much
SJR-8221: Undecided, lean don't care
SJR-8223: Uh...I guess?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on July 09, 2012, 05:56:13 PM
ewww... After two or three months as a state senator again Rossi's head may grow enough to run for president.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 09, 2012, 08:55:55 PM
Ugh, it happened: http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/07/09/dino-rossi-is-a-senator

I moved just in time.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 10, 2012, 03:11:50 PM
LOL: http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/07/10/republican-pflug-endorses-democrat-mullet-trashes-rossi

I <3 Pflug!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 11, 2012, 11:29:03 AM
LOL: http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/07/10/republican-pflug-endorses-democrat-mullet-trashes-rossi

I <3 Pflug!

Excellent. GOP infighting is how Kathleen Drew got elected there in 1992. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 12, 2012, 07:49:58 PM
Whoa. Four Republican members of the State House have endorsed some guy named Shahram Hadian for Governor, who is running to Rob McKenna's right: http://hadian2012.com/press-releases/2012-07-12/breaking-news-conservative-leaders-endorse-hadian-governor


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on July 12, 2012, 09:04:34 PM
Whoa. Four Republican members of the State House have endorsed some guy named Shahram Hadian for Governor, who is running to Rob McKenna's right: http://hadian2012.com/press-releases/2012-07-12/breaking-news-conservative-leaders-endorse-hadian-governor

Up where I live, I've only seen signs for Hadian, not McKenna.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 12, 2012, 09:42:48 PM
He'll mostly be a non-factor... Though I suppose it's possible he'll drain enough from  McKenna to allow Inslee a 1st place finish in the primary.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on July 12, 2012, 11:23:08 PM
I don't understand why suburban moderates vote for McKenna over Inslee, Inslee got elected in a relatively conservative district a couple decades ago, while McKenna is towing the Scott Walker line.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on July 12, 2012, 11:25:57 PM
Whoa. Four Republican members of the State House have endorsed some guy named Shahram Hadian for Governor, who is running to Rob McKenna's right: http://hadian2012.com/press-releases/2012-07-12/breaking-news-conservative-leaders-endorse-hadian-governor

These four members are "pure dumbasses" - ready to support a patented idiot with zero chances to be elected for the sake of "ideological purity". But this malaise is not limited to Republican idiots exclusively - i met a lot of their Democratic counterparts as well..


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 13, 2012, 12:16:30 AM
Ruderman is playing very dirty, hmm...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 13, 2012, 06:44:33 AM
I've seen some of his signs around houses in Lakewood and Spanaway.  They seem to have a decent campaign infrastructure and a fancy web site.  Maybe that's worth 1/3 of a Clint Didier.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 13, 2012, 09:46:51 PM
Have there been any WA-01 polls recently?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on July 13, 2012, 11:43:06 PM
For what it's worth: I saw a few Hadian signs in Spokane.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on July 13, 2012, 11:46:09 PM
For what it's worth: I saw a few Hadian signs in Spokane.

Yeah, but McKenna at least has a presence in Spokane; he's virtually nonexistent in northern Snohomish County. I don't think any of the gubernatorial candidates have signs up in Cheney.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 13, 2012, 11:55:21 PM
I haven't seen any McKenna signs in Pierce County outside of Steilacoom.  Bizarre, how statewide campaigns work.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 14, 2012, 12:06:00 AM
There will be a WA-01 poll released in about a week.

Meanwhile, Laura Ruderman seems intent on making Darcy Burner the Democratic candidate in November: http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/07/13/is-suzan-delromney-mailer-a-low-blow/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 14, 2012, 01:19:31 AM
There will be a WA-01 poll released in about a week.

Meanwhile, Laura Ruderman seems intent on making Darcy Burner the Democratic candidate in November: http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/07/13/is-suzan-delromney-mailer-a-low-blow/

Darcy was probably going to be the candidate anyway...

I don't really know how to vote for now. Not Darcy, obviously. Laura is kind of annoying me. Hobbs is a little too conservative for my tastes though I don't dislike him. Hmm, I guess that would leave DelBene. I'm basically waiting for polling to show me which candidate becomes the anti-Burner, though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 14, 2012, 08:34:36 PM
So is anyone aware how this 1988 initiative was constructed on the ballot? I'm very confused by it.

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 15, 2012, 05:05:28 PM
Wowwww: http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2012/07/15/anti-suzan-delbene-pac-funded-by-mother-of-opponent-laura-ruderman/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 15, 2012, 07:01:31 PM
Wowwww: http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2012/07/15/anti-suzan-delbene-pac-funded-by-mother-of-opponent-laura-ruderman/

At an LD meeting last week, someone asked her to condemn the attacks, and she got all teary eyed and refused.

Do you guys think Ruderman is finished now? Might allow DelBene to emerge as the sole anti-Burner.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on July 16, 2012, 02:38:52 AM
It's hard to say.  The fact that Patty Murray, the most powerful member of Washington's congressional delegation, openly condemned the mailings strongly suggests that Ruderman has become a persona non grata to the WA Democratic establishment.  So is Burner, but she is a favorite of the national left.

With Burner as the darling of the national left, DelBene the anointed choice of the WA Democratic establishment and Hobbs clearly going after the "centrist" vote, I don't see room left for Ruderman in the wake of these latest allegations.  While there is no evidence (yet) that she knew what her mother was doing, she looks to me like a candidate who has become "damaged goods."


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 16, 2012, 11:40:38 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13zlscztY_I&feature=player_embedded

Ruderman is out with a "my mom has cancer" TV ad. Interesting timing.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 16, 2012, 04:13:25 PM
i can only imagine how the strategy conversations on this IE went.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 18, 2012, 11:33:35 AM
The Stranger endorsed Ruderman anyway. They also endorsed a crazy person for Lt. Governor (no, not Owen). It'll be interesting to see the Capitol Hill precinct results on that one.

Edit: Just noticed Rob Holland is running for state legislature. I could definitely see him being Smith's successor in the 9th district.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 19, 2012, 01:51:17 AM
You guys have been quiet and boring lately. :(

Anyway: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2018719195_toft19.html

Prospects in the 5th LD are looking even better. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 19, 2012, 04:33:05 AM
Does anyone have any strong feelings on State Supreme Court Pos. 9?  I'm not a fan of the liberal standard-bearer in that race, but don't know much about Hilyer or McCloud.

It's my last statewide undecided, since Randy Dorn's opponents seem pretty blah.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on July 19, 2012, 12:58:32 PM
Does anyone have any strong feelings on State Supreme Court Pos. 9?  I'm not a fan of the liberal standard-bearer in that race, but don't know much about Hilyer or McCloud.

It's my last statewide undecided, since Randy Dorn's opponents seem pretty blah.

Hm.... No clue. I thought I knew something about McCloud until discovering that it was a woman not a man (whoops!).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 19, 2012, 08:33:30 PM
A couple of new polls: http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/07/19/new-poll-shows-burner-ahead-in-wa-01

Democracy for America (Burner supporters):
17 Burner
13 DelBene
5 Hobbs
4 Ruderman
1 Rauniyar

Strategies 360
12 Burner
11 DelBene
6 Hobbs
3 Ruderman



I'l consider voting for DelBene if I have to...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 19, 2012, 11:02:57 PM
Does anyone have any strong feelings on State Supreme Court Pos. 9?  I'm not a fan of the liberal standard-bearer in that race, but don't know much about Hilyer or McCloud.

It's my last statewide undecided, since Randy Dorn's opponents seem pretty blah.

I'm voting for Hilyer. He's the only one with judicial experience besides Sanders and would probably make for his strongest opponent in the general.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Napoleon on July 20, 2012, 12:21:05 AM
A couple of new polls: http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/07/19/new-poll-shows-burner-ahead-in-wa-01

Democracy for America (Burner supporters):
17 Burner
13 DelBene
5 Hobbs
4 Ruderman
1 Rauniyar

Strategies 360
12 Burner
11 DelBene
6 Hobbs
3 Ruderman



I'l consider voting for DelBene if I have to...

Vote for Burner.  You can't hold losing to Reichert against her.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 20, 2012, 12:28:15 AM
A couple of new polls: http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/07/19/new-poll-shows-burner-ahead-in-wa-01

Democracy for America (Burner supporters):
17 Burner
13 DelBene
5 Hobbs
4 Ruderman
1 Rauniyar

Strategies 360
12 Burner
11 DelBene
6 Hobbs
3 Ruderman



I'l consider voting for DelBene if I have to...

Vote for Burner.  You can't hold losing to Reichert against her.

We can and we will.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Napoleon on July 20, 2012, 12:30:29 AM
That is very petty. I can't imagine a different candidate defeating him in either of those elections. Burner is solidly liberal and is willing to take firm stances on the issues that matter.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 20, 2012, 12:33:11 AM
That is very petty. I can't imagine a different candidate defeating him in either of those elections. Burner is solidly liberal and is willing to take firm stances on the issues that matter.

I sure can. DelBene did better in 2010 than Burner did in 2008... It was probably one of the only swings to the Democrats in 2010. Burner was and is a weak candidate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 20, 2012, 12:37:58 AM
^^^ Yup. If DelBene had run in 2006 or 2008 she would've beaten Reichert. Rodney Tom in 2008 may have also had a shot.

I liked Darcy a lot both times she ran before but don't much anymore; I think she's become way too negative and ideological. The most important factor though is that she's not going to be able to beat Koster in November (yes, I know that SurveyUSA poll had her doing the best. That's just because of name recognition.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Napoleon on July 20, 2012, 12:40:08 AM
That is very petty. I can't imagine a different candidate defeating him in either of those elections. Burner is solidly liberal and is willing to take firm stances on the issues that matter.

I sure can. DelBene did better in 2010 than Burner did in 2008... It was probably one of the only swings to the Democrats in 2010. Burner was and is a weak candidate.

DelBene did worse than Burner did in 2006. Reichert always wins with low 50s, just like Gerlach in PA-6. The challenging candidate doesn't matter much.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 20, 2012, 12:41:05 AM
That is very petty. I can't imagine a different candidate defeating him in either of those elections. Burner is solidly liberal and is willing to take firm stances on the issues that matter.

I sure can. DelBene did better in 2010 than Burner did in 2008... It was probably one of the only swings to the Democrats in 2010. Burner was and is a weak candidate.

DelBene did worse than Burner did in 2006. Reichert always wins with low 50s, just like Gerlach in PA-6. The challenging candidate doesn't matter much.

The national climates of 2006 and 2010 were a bit different...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Napoleon on July 20, 2012, 12:41:39 AM
^^^ Yup. If DelBene had run in 2006 or 2008 she would've beaten Reichert. Rodney Tom in 2008 may have also had a shot.

I liked Darcy a lot both times she ran before but don't much anymore; I think she's become way too negative and ideological. The most important factor though is that she's not going to be able to beat Koster in November (yes, I know that SurveyUSA poll had her doing the best. That's just because of name recognition.)
Fair enough. Negative and ideological don't turn me off too much and the new district as I understand gave Obama a decent margin but is swingier down ballot.

The national climates of 2006 and 2010 were a bit different...

I consider this argument a fallacy...yes it can account for some races, but I don't think it can be tossed around the way it is on this site. For example Dan Lungren got 60% in 206 and only 50% in 2010. A similar district to Reichert's would be PA-6, where Gerlach regularly gets low 50s no matter the opponent. District specific issues like the rumors about Reichert's health could also be a factor, so I think you're being a bit unfair, if not completely aversive to the big picture. I'd like to know what traits would make DelBene a stronger candidate otherwise.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 20, 2012, 01:00:55 AM
And while Burner is liberal, so is Ruderman (and especially Rauniyar, but nobody really cares about him). And I'd consider DelBene left of center. Hobbs is the moderate Democrat.

Ruderman is my preferred pick, as she's a solid progressive with legislative experience and a track record of winning swing districts. But I can settle on DelBene as the anti-Burner if necessary (I'll be keeping a close eye on polling).

Why is DelBene stronger? She's a self-funder, which definitely helps. She also has some experience, like heading the state department of revenue, while Darcy still has nothing. She also just comes off across much more sane and reasonable sounding than Burner does.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on July 20, 2012, 01:13:03 AM
I'd like to know what traits would make DelBene a stronger candidate otherwise.

While I hesitate to draw too many conclusions from recent polling, the PPP poll showed DelBene doing five points better with independents than Burner in spite of lower name recognition.  Burner does better with Democrats.  The new WA-01 was specifically drawn as a swing district.  If this was a race in WA-07 I'd be for Burner.  But it isn't. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 20, 2012, 06:37:38 AM
Napoleon, I think the most damning piece of evidence there is that Reichert was the only Republican congressman (who I'm aware of) to lose vote share between 2008 and 2010.

***

The SUSA poll also shows:

Attorney General
Ferguson (D) 37%
Dunn (R) 37%

U.S. Senate
Cantwell (D) 51%
Baumgartner (R) 40%

Still nothing on the SUSA web site.

Ballots will be arriving statewide between yesterday and Monday.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Napoleon on July 20, 2012, 09:52:31 AM
Napoleon, I think the most damning piece of evidence there is that Reichert was the only Republican congressman (who I'm aware of) to lose vote share between 2008 and 2010.


I would explain that by pointing to the rumors of brain damage and all that but if you guys don't think that had an impact..


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 20, 2012, 11:41:08 AM
Napoleon, I think the most damning piece of evidence there is that Reichert was the only Republican congressman (who I'm aware of) to lose vote share between 2008 and 2010.


I would explain that by pointing to the rumors of brain damage and all that but if you guys don't think that had an impact..

It really didn't...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 20, 2012, 11:57:42 AM
Most voters had no idea of anything involving that story. What narrowed the margin was DelBene's effective television ads and campaigning.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Napoleon on July 20, 2012, 03:36:17 PM
OK. If you all don't think Burner can win then it makes sense not to support her. Still I would prefer to see her win the primary and the general.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 20, 2012, 05:14:53 PM
http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2012/07/20/friday-briefing-obamas-lead-in-washington-narrows-a-bit-polls-on-marijuanal-charters-same-sex-marriage/

Charter schools at 46%
Gay marriage at 50% (indicates probably +5 or so)
Two-thirds majority at 56%

They don't give No numbers.  Super helpful!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 20, 2012, 06:56:02 PM
It's like she's trying to lose: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/07/20/1112130/-An-adult-conversation-about-guns


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 20, 2012, 07:45:30 PM
It's like she's trying to lose: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/07/20/1112130/-An-adult-conversation-about-guns

"It’s time we had an adult conversation about guns in this country. The NRA can go to hell."

sigh


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 20, 2012, 10:27:20 PM
Perfect example of why she's not a good fit for this district.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on July 20, 2012, 11:59:43 PM
ughhhhhhhhhhhhh


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 21, 2012, 12:54:21 AM
Full results:

Ref. 74 - Marriage equality
Approve 50%
Reject 43%

Eyman two-thirds
Yes 56%
No 19%

Marijuana legalization
Yes 56%
No 32%

Charter schools
Yes 46%
No 29%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 21, 2012, 12:58:19 AM
Full results:

Ref. 74 - Marriage equality
Approve 50%
Reject 43%

Eyman two-thirds
Yes 56%
No 19%

Marijuana legalization
Yes 56%
No 32%

Charter schools
Yes 46%
No 29%

Wow... That's SUSA? Saying pot is ahead by a 24 point margin? I think pot overpolls, but +24 means it's probably actually ahead!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CT27 on July 21, 2012, 01:43:07 AM
Haven't been following this too much:

Does McKenna actually have a chance to win?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 21, 2012, 04:11:04 AM
The somewhat bad news for the Republicans here is that undecideds tend to be Democratic voters.  For instance:

* In the Governor's race, 8% of respondents are undecided Obama voters; only 3% are undecided Romney voters.

* In the AG race, 12% of respondents are undecided Obama voters; only 6% are undecided Romney voters.

Charter schools undecideds split 10%-10% between Obama and Romney voters.

Eyman issue splits undecideds 13%-7% Obama.

Also, apparently Cupcake Royale's pro-R74 cupcakes raised $7,000 this month.  Not bad.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on July 21, 2012, 01:15:40 PM
Those Eyman numbers make me want to cry.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 21, 2012, 01:18:53 PM
I remember seeing a really great graph in 2010 that showed the various biases of all the pollsters who poll Washington. Does anybody know where I can find it?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on July 21, 2012, 01:20:26 PM
Those Eyman numbers make me want to cry.

Those are the kinds of numbers that makes you stay up at night.  :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 21, 2012, 01:23:43 PM
I remember seeing a really great graph in 2010 that showed the various biases of all the pollsters who poll Washington. Does anybody know where I can find it?

Found it: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/13/mail-voting-in-washington-state-may-confound-pollsters/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 21, 2012, 02:29:37 PM
Fwiw, Eyman's polling numbers almost always deteriorate as the election approaches (although there would have to be a hell of a lot of deterioration, especially since the voters have passed this before.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on July 21, 2012, 03:34:48 PM
How is Eyman polling so well?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 22, 2012, 06:07:11 AM
Quote from: Tacoma News Tribune
Dave T. Sumner IV, who prefers the Neopopulist Party, has a varied background. He describes himself as an electro-goth and rap recording artist, lobbyist and a Satanist who founded The Haunted Church.

Sumner said his political views are anchored in the U.S. Constitution. He dislikes the coordination between big business and government and wants to work to eliminate inequality between the rich and poor. He also opposes increased government use of databases to track information about people.

<3


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 22, 2012, 01:09:35 PM
Lolz. Matt Shea may be our nuttiest member of the State House (though Condotta gives him a run for his money): http://www.thenewstribune.com/2012/07/22/2223234/wash-legislator-cited-for-gun.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 22, 2012, 09:18:33 PM
Rob McKenna's first ad is up. Politics aside, the production values are pretty shoddy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVJcxRllWHA

More of this, please!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 23, 2012, 12:46:47 AM
That was just awful.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 23, 2012, 06:01:40 PM
Quote
This was never going to be easy for Rob McKenna. Long considered the front‐runner in the race for Governor, the Attorney General is trying to do what no Republican has done since 1980—get elected Governor of Washington state. About 1 in 5 of the state’s current voters were not yet born in 1980. After having led the race for the last year, McKenna trailed Democrat Jay Inslee by 43‐36% in The Elway Poll completed last night.

McKenna led among Independents by 42‐29% in June, but Inslee led Independents by 31‐29% this month. Meanwhile, the number of undecided Independents jumped from 29% last month to 40% this month.

Inslee leads in Seattle (57‐24%) and King County outside Seattle (44‐36%)

The last line makes no sense, but this is Elway after all.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 23, 2012, 06:12:04 PM
Garbage polling, but the news media still takes Elway seriously so this'll probably generate a round of stories about how McKenna is faltering.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 23, 2012, 11:55:52 PM
Excellent. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on July 26, 2012, 07:27:41 PM
I was browsing 2008 precinct results for fun and I noticed that Brad Owen underperformed dramatically in Capitol Hill. Marcia McCraw routinely received 20% in precincts that gave McCain between 1 and 5% of the vote. She did better than McKenna and Reed. Is the Stranger really that influential in Seattle or did she wage an active campaign aimed at cultural liberals?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 26, 2012, 07:30:55 PM
Entirely The Stranger.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on July 26, 2012, 07:35:49 PM
That's pretty crazy, all things considered. I'd have to assume that most of the 1/5th of McCraw/Obama voters are ultra-progressive and aren't of the moderate hero variety. That means something like 20% of capitol hill are avid readers of the editorial pages of a quirky alt-newspaper and actually its advice into consideration. Seattle is weird man.

I'd probably cast a protest vote for McCraw because Brad Owen is a douchenozzle and to tell people that I've voted for a Republican before in an attempt to bolster my "fair and balanced" credentials.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 26, 2012, 08:35:27 PM
The Stranger is pretty influential in Seattle.

I got Alcon to make a map once showing it once (McCraw vs. McCain,IIRC?) --- I wonder if he still has it?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 27, 2012, 02:08:44 AM
It's The Stranger.  I wish I had the maps still, but McCraw's performance on Cap Hill -- which was  amazing, >30% in a few precincts -- was pretty impressive.  So were the performances of the losing, Stranger-endorsed City Council candidates last year.  There were also echoes of the Stranger effect in Fremont and the U-District.

I was just telling other nerds at the bar tonight that it'll be interesting to see how the anti-fluoridation Lt. Governor candidate they endorsed fares on Cap Hill.  That might be the "Stranger floor."


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 27, 2012, 11:56:29 AM
Did The Stranger really have to hire Goldy? His crush on Burner is so tiresome, among other things.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 27, 2012, 11:59:57 AM
His McKenna stuff is pretty amusing. But yeah, the Burner thing has gotten real old.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 27, 2012, 01:43:50 PM
New SurveyUSA in WA-01

Koster: 38%
DelBene: 17%
Burner: 13%
Ruderman: 6%
Hobbs: 5%
Rauniyar: 2%
Ishmael: 2%

General match-ups:

Quote
Head-to-head: Looking forward to the November general election, it couldn't be closer.  If the race were between Koster and DelBene, SurveyUSA finds it's a dead heat -- 42 percent each.  It's also effectively a dead heat if it were Koster vs. Burner.

Obama leads Romney 50-40; McKenna leads Inslee 46-44


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on July 27, 2012, 03:22:57 PM
Welome to Washington, DFB! :D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Napoleon on July 27, 2012, 03:27:21 PM
I think more progressive groups will start spending to help Burner.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 27, 2012, 03:40:32 PM
+2 McKenna in the 1st CD... I think Inslee needs to do a little better there if he's going to win statewide. I'll be interested to see the primary results in the old 1st CD. Kitsap and Snohomish counties are going to be deciding this election, IMO.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 27, 2012, 03:42:06 PM
I think more progressive groups will start spending to help Burner.

They better start soon. 25% of voters have already cast ballots.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on July 27, 2012, 03:53:48 PM
It should be interesting to see how the Socialist Alternative candidate Sawant does in the race for the 43rd. I probably wouldn't vote for her because her positions are ludicrous (advocated nationalizing Boeing wtf) even though she's an econ professor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 27, 2012, 08:43:19 PM
It should be interesting to see how the Socialist Alternative candidate Sawant does in the race for the 43rd. I probably wouldn't vote for her because her positions are ludicrous (advocated nationalizing Boeing wtf) even though she's an econ professor.

I don't know... The 43rd had a D vs G race in 2002, where the Green got 21% of the vote. But a significant portion of that was probably Republicans voting for the non-Democrat. In fact, in the 7th CD race in 2010, Broadmoor (the most Republican precinct in Seattle) voted for the independent over McDermott. I think they might be less likely to do that when the non-Democrat is a Socialist. Cracking 10% is definitely doable for Sawant, I think.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 27, 2012, 08:46:18 PM
Isn't she a write-in?  That's going to make it hard.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 27, 2012, 08:47:30 PM
Isn't she a write-in?  That's going to make it hard.

No. She challenged Pedersen. The Stranger endorsed Pedersen and endorsed Sawant as a write-in against Chopp instead.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on July 28, 2012, 07:35:43 PM
So no talk about the $2.5 million money bomb lodged by Bezos?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ajc0918 on July 28, 2012, 11:58:17 PM
So no talk about the $2.5 million money bomb lodged by Bezos?

I saw it, it's continuing to look like 2012 will be a great year for marriage equality!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on July 29, 2012, 02:45:23 AM
So no talk about the $2.5 million money bomb lodged by Bezos?

I also noticed that both Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer gave $100,000.  It's notable that these powerful corporate heads have taken our side on this issue.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 29, 2012, 02:21:31 PM
Another interesting way to look at The Stranger's strength is is the 2008 Secretary of State race. They endorsed Reed in the primary, but changed their minds and endorsed Osgood in the general. If you compared Reed's primary performance to his general performance, King has by far the biggest drop. While some of this is likely general-only voters voting all D, the 4.7% drop is much bigger than it is in other Democratic counties (1.5% in San Juan, 1.6% in Thurston, 1.1% in Whatcom). Reed's numbers increased in most counties (including Jefferson), but the big drop in King brought his statewide number down 1.07%. How much of that is attributable to The Stranger, I don't know, but a look at the precinct results would probably tell us.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 29, 2012, 02:34:06 PM
Here are the 2008 SoS results from the 43rd LD:

Primary
48.45% Osborn (D)
46.91% Reed (R)
2.85% Strickland (C)
1.60% Greene (PoC)
0.19% Write-in

General
66.17% Osborn (D)
33.71% Reed (R)
0.12% Write-in


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on July 29, 2012, 02:43:55 PM
It's also fair to say The Stranger was the reason McGinn got out of the primary and won the general.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on August 01, 2012, 03:06:11 PM
There's a good chance that DelBene is more left-wing than she appears: she graduated from Reed College in the days when its unofficial motto ("communism, atheism and free love") was far closer to the truth than it is today and she makes no real mention of a religious affiliation on her page. Her profile is one of an inoffensive moderate but her issue positions are that of a standard progressive.

Nominate her, please. Ruderman is also a good choice but the anti-Burners need to unite.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 01, 2012, 08:51:42 PM
There's a good chance that DelBene is more left-wing than she appears: she graduated from Reed College in the days when its unofficial motto ("communism, atheism and free love") was far closer to the truth than it is today and she makes no real mention of a religious affiliation on her page. Her profile is one of an inoffensive moderate but her issue positions are that of a standard progressive.

Nominate her, please. Ruderman is also a good choice but the anti-Burners need to unite.

She's definitely running as a progressive, too. The competitive primary has probably caused some of that, but here's what the mailer I got yesterday says:

"Who's the ONE progressive candidate who can actually make progress on these issues in Congress? Hold Wall Street Accountable. Pro-Choice. Medicare not Millionaires. I DO support marriage equality."

The next page calls her a "progressive problem solver" and talks about raising taxes on the rich.

I like Laura Ruderman but DelBene has clearly become the anti-Burner, and Ruderman's mom has made her campaign look pretty silly.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 01, 2012, 10:09:29 PM
I refuse to believe it'll actually end up at 30% but I'm having difficulty seeing how it breaks even 35%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 01, 2012, 10:45:08 PM
What was it in 2008 and 2010? (Not including the Presidential primary)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 01, 2012, 10:54:55 PM
2008 was about 43%, 2010 was about 41%. So we're talking about a big drop-off here.

The only thing that's really changed is moving the primary date up. But I'm kinda shocked it would have this much of an effect (I do not recall the move from September to August having a big effect on turnout, for example.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 01, 2012, 11:32:52 PM
Hmm. It will be interesting to see if this benefits either side.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 02, 2012, 01:41:10 AM
I think I figured it out...

Based on the Orbitz survey, more consumers are planning to travel in July (31 percent) rather than in June (18 percent) or August (20 percent) with the rest of travelers still undecided. http://www.hospitalitynet.org/news/4056154.html

July is the most popular month for vacations, with 44% of the Americans, who are taking at least one summer vacation, indicating they plan to vacation in July. http://www.examiner.com/article/a-look-at-america-s-summer-vacation-plans


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on August 05, 2012, 10:46:45 PM
Burner has gone negative on DelBene:

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2012/08/02/darcy-burner-flip-flops-goes-furiously-negative/ (http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2012/08/02/darcy-burner-flip-flops-goes-furiously-negative/)

Apparently this is a reversal of an earlier pledge of the Burner campaign to not go negative.  Clearly, her internal polling must be telling her that DelBene's self-funded advertising push is working.

Color me skeptical that this last minute attack will actually work.   If I had to bet, my unscientific guess would be that Suzan DelBene will advance to the general with Koster.  


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 05, 2012, 11:56:35 PM
^ I can't wait for her to go away for good after her third loss. At least I hope she goes away...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 06, 2012, 08:36:22 PM
Why are you guys being so quiet on election eve? :) any predictions?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 06, 2012, 08:36:46 PM
I didn't get to vote. :(

Granted, I'm no longer in a competitive district, but still.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 06, 2012, 08:40:29 PM
Huh? What happened?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 06, 2012, 08:43:17 PM
Title change.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 06, 2012, 08:48:10 PM

My ballot is on the west side, and I am not. My dad was on vacation until yesterday, so I couldn't get it mailed to me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 06, 2012, 08:52:27 PM
I think you might be able to go to your local county auditor tomorrow and vote provisionally for the statewide races.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 06, 2012, 08:55:39 PM
You can also request a replacement ballot to any address.  I'm on vacation with like 15 people, and if they didn't vote, I got them sent here.

It's actually kind of ridiculous how easy it is to get a hold of someone else's ballot, which might make it possible to nullify someone else's vote...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 06, 2012, 09:08:05 PM
Not sure if it's been mentioned here yet, but the Republicans are fielding a write-in candidate for State Treasurer - failed 2008 31st LD candidate Sharon Hanek. If she can get 1% of the vote she'll appear on the general election ballot. I suspect it will be pretty easy to do that.

http://www.sharonhanek.com/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 06, 2012, 09:50:08 PM
If you call the county elections office, you can get permission to print out a ballot and mail it.

Not sure if it's been mentioned here yet, but the Republicans are fielding a write-in candidate for State Treasurer - failed 2008 31st LD candidate Sharon Hanek. If she can get 1% of the vote she'll appear on the general election ballot. I suspect it will be pretty easy to do that.

http://www.sharonhanek.com/

I didn't even realize they didn't have a candidate until yesterday. And as usual, third parties/independents are too stupid to realize an opportunity to actually get on the general election ballot.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on August 06, 2012, 10:23:32 PM
Finally, a batch of primary elections I'm actually excited about!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 06, 2012, 11:01:54 PM
I'm going to go to the voting center and vote in person tomorrow. I think I've decided for sure to vote for DelBene.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 07, 2012, 02:33:48 AM
Ok... Finally voted. I held my nose and pulled the trigger for Inslee.

Couple of close races tomorrow though, I am looking forward to seeing how things turn out. My LD for example has a pretty close primary going down for state rep between Jeff Davis and Lynda Ring-Erickson (whom I voted for). Though the 1st CD is where all the attention deservedly will be tomorrow.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 07, 2012, 08:46:34 PM
Ok... Finally voted. I held my nose and pulled the trigger for Inslee.

For some reason I doubt you were seriously considering voting for McKenna. :P

Anyway, just voted in person. Voted for DelBene.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 07, 2012, 09:08:07 PM
Ok... Finally voted. I held my nose and pulled the trigger for Inslee.

For some reason I doubt you were seriously considering voting for McKenna. :P

Anyway, just voted in person. Voted for DelBene.

Actually I nearly pulled the trigger. My thought process was probably flawed but more or less was went along the lines that McKenna would be a much better administrator and that he would not be able to actually pursue many of his policy positions. Honestly if I had faith that he would enthusiastically pursue setting up Washington's part of the Health Care law then I would have voted for him (well.... also he would have to prove himself capable of not being a crazy right-winger on environmental/gay rights issues).

Also I just really don't care for Inslee


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 07, 2012, 09:36:25 PM
Kirby Wilbur has been asking God (http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2012/08/07/republican-chairman-kirby-wilbur-champion-for-darcy-burner) for a Burner victory. Can't blame him.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 07, 2012, 09:53:10 PM
7 MINUTES


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 07, 2012, 09:53:52 PM
Kirby Wilbur has been asking God (http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2012/08/07/republican-chairman-kirby-wilbur-champion-for-darcy-burner) for a Burner victory. Can't blame him.

lol


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 07, 2012, 10:02:33 PM
Polls are closed, so to speak.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 07, 2012, 10:08:10 PM
Votes in from Clallam. Governor's race essentially tied there. Cantwell at 54%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 07, 2012, 10:10:11 PM
Inslee will probably win statewide if Clallam is any indication.

I wonder if Cantwell will beat her 2006 number in November.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 07, 2012, 10:11:06 PM
Inslee will probably win statewide if Clallam is any indication.

My thoughts as well.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 07, 2012, 10:11:21 PM
Votes in from Clallam. Governor's race essentially tied there.

Yep, I'm surprised by that.. McKenna should be doing better there if he wants a chance at emerging from the beauty contest victorious.

Then again we don't know where exactly those votes are coming from.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 07, 2012, 10:12:23 PM
Bunch in from Eastern Washington. McKenna up 46-44. Pierce going for Inslee so far is a good sign for him.

EDIT: Cantwell down by only .45% in Franklin County.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 07, 2012, 10:15:06 PM
Sanders currently not making the runoff for supreme court!!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 07, 2012, 10:16:42 PM
DelBene leading 22-13 in Whatcom! :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 07, 2012, 10:17:43 PM
DelBene beating Burner in Whatcom.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 07, 2012, 10:22:28 PM
McKenna 46.5%, Inslee 42.8%.
Cantwell 51.7%, Baumgarner 32.3%.

DelBene still in second.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 07, 2012, 10:25:29 PM
Ouch Ruderman..


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 07, 2012, 10:27:09 PM
Nothing from Snohomish or King yet for WA-01. Still too early to call, but DelBene's looking good so far.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 07, 2012, 10:28:21 PM
Ferguson is leading 49-41 for AG, and we don't even have King yet. :)

Also noticed the third place candidate for Governor is a Democrat, with Republican Hadian in fourth. Didn't expect that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 07, 2012, 10:33:54 PM
Jay Inslee is doing very well in Snohomish County.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 07, 2012, 10:35:51 PM
Jay Inslee is doing very well in Snohomish County.

Not surprising as his latest district was there.

Also, DelBene is doing well in Snohomish.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 07, 2012, 10:36:46 PM
Spokane is not great for Inslee...and he's trailing in Mason an Cowlitz.  A theme about suburban vs. working-class voters is starting to appear here


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 07, 2012, 10:37:49 PM
Spokane is not great for Inslee...and he's trailing in Mason an Cowlitz.  A theme about suburban vs. working-class voters is starting to appear here

Inslee is doing well in Pacific and Grays Harbor though. That pattern is enough to give a Dem a win. I am surprised at Inslee's poor performance in Whitman though. WSU not in?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 07, 2012, 10:38:27 PM
Spokane is not great for Inslee...and he's trailing in Mason an Cowlitz.  A theme about suburban vs. working-class voters is starting to appear here

Rossi won both of those counties. We've been seeing this trend develop for years.

Inslee is leading in recently Republican counties like Skagit and Island.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 07, 2012, 10:40:35 PM
Spokane is not great for Inslee...and he's trailing in Mason an Cowlitz.  A theme about suburban vs. working-class voters is starting to appear here

Rossi won both of those counties. We've been seeing this trend develop for years.

Inslee is leading in recently Republican counties like Skagit and Island.

Are Skagit and Island really still Republican counties?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 07, 2012, 10:42:14 PM
DelBene is up in King. I think she has it in the bag. Also, Inslee's doing well in Thurston.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 07, 2012, 10:44:15 PM
Spokane is not great for Inslee...and he's trailing in Mason an Cowlitz.  A theme about suburban vs. working-class voters is starting to appear here

Rossi won both of those counties. We've been seeing this trend develop for years.

Inslee is leading in recently Republican counties like Skagit and Island.

Are Skagit and Island really still Republican counties?

Not really. And that's my point. Maybe Cowlitz and Mason have trended R. But other counties have trended D.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 07, 2012, 10:46:19 PM
DelBene is up in King. I think she has it in the bag. Also, Inslee's doing well in Thurston.

Yup! 23-17 in King for DelBene. What a relief.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 07, 2012, 10:47:29 PM
Also, Koster is going to be well under 50%. Good sign for the Dems in the fall.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 07, 2012, 10:48:03 PM
Inslee sweeps King 58-35!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 07, 2012, 10:48:57 PM

Yeah but anyone could tell you that. :P King easily erases McKenna's statewide lead. It honestly might not even be that close.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 07, 2012, 10:49:35 PM
SoS hasn't added King yet, but they're saying McKenna +15k and Inslee won King by 51k. Add the usual late voting Democrats, and it's definitely looking like Inslee will get first place.


Yeah but anyone could tell you that. :P King easily erases McKenna's statewide lead.

McKenna is from Bellevue. I didn't think he would definitely lose by 23 points.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 07, 2012, 10:55:26 PM
Wow, The Stranger's write-in endorsement may have worked!

District 43, Seat 1:
90.66% Pedersen
8.48% Sawant
0.86% Write-in

District 43, Seat 2
80.44% Chopp
9.35% Gadow
10.21% Write-in


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 07, 2012, 10:56:26 PM
All counties have first wave in.

Inslee 46.78%, McKenna 42.93%
Cantwell 55.78%, Baumgarner 30.24%
Koster 43.72%, DelBene 23.33%, Burner 14.60%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 07, 2012, 10:59:06 PM
In the 5th LD, Mullet is leading Toft 53-47.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 07, 2012, 11:00:27 PM
In my local LD (10), two incumbents are squaring off against each other. It's currently Bailey 50.28%, Haugen 49.72%. Doesn't mean much, but still very close.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 07, 2012, 11:01:21 PM
Looks like Drew and Kelley will be the Democrats for SoS and Auditor, respectively.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 07, 2012, 11:06:10 PM
Thank god for King county. I was getting worried about Gonzalez until results from King (75-25 in favor of Gonzalez) came in. Any reason he was so weak in the rest of the state?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 07, 2012, 11:07:40 PM
Thank god for King county. I was getting worried about Gonzalez until results from King (75-25 in favor of Gonzalez) came in. Any reason he was so weak in the rest of the state?

Those are some incredibly polarized results. Wow.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 07, 2012, 11:07:54 PM
Litzow is winning 58-42... Oh well.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 07, 2012, 11:17:02 PM
Hmm:

LD 3 (Spokane) is currently a D v D race. One of the republicans is currently in 3rd place, 25 votes short of making it to the general.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 07, 2012, 11:20:10 PM
I'm going to make up some statewide maps real fast.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 07, 2012, 11:40:31 PM
() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_07_08_12_11_40_10.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 07, 2012, 11:50:41 PM
Cool!  Can I make the legislative maps?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 07, 2012, 11:52:53 PM
Cool!  Can I make the legislative maps?

Sure. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 07, 2012, 11:54:20 PM

<3 <3 <3


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 07, 2012, 11:57:58 PM
Here's a few more statewide maps:

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on August 08, 2012, 12:00:59 AM
Thank god for King county. I was getting worried about Gonzalez until results from King (75-25 in favor of Gonzalez) came in. Any reason he was so weak in the rest of the state?

Some reports and Gonzalez himself expressed concern that his Latino surname might work against him given that he has not yet been able to establish a statewide profile.  This is especially true given the lack of statewide voters pamphlet in paper format this year which might otherwise show Gonzalez's credentials. Fortunately, he was a judge in King County for a decade.  That is the one place he is well-known and the voters came through.

From The Stranger:

Quote
There has been a consistent finding in the research that minority candidates, all other things being equal, are evaluated less favorably by the voters," Matt Barreto, a pollster at the University of Washington, says of the Danielson-Gonzalez race. Barreto has polled in races across the state, but stopped polling on supreme court races a while back because so few respondents knew anything about them—meaning that, for these races, all things are often equal, in the sense that most voters are equally ignorant. He says Gonzalez, who has raised $185,000 to Danielson's $0, still faces an "uphill battle" in this contest.
http://www.thestranger.com/seattle/does-his-name-sound-too-mexican/Content?oid=14030223 (http://www.thestranger.com/seattle/does-his-name-sound-too-mexican/Content?oid=14030223)


Similar reporting can be found in the Seattle Times.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2018773276_supremecourt26m.html (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2018773276_supremecourt26m.html)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 08, 2012, 12:11:25 AM
Whatcom split the super Republican precinct north of Lynden. There's now an even more Republican precinct. Only 8% Cantwell! And for Governor, it's 72% McKenna, 20% Hadian, and 5% Inslee. Koster got 92% there.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Tender Branson on August 08, 2012, 12:23:47 AM
Looking good for Inslee ...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 08, 2012, 12:39:26 AM
Here are the primaries for the state senate seats:

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5422_11_08_12_3_32_20.png)



Once all the precincts are in, maybe I'll do some maps for the legislative positions (including some which show what got more votes as a whole).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 08, 2012, 12:41:38 AM
In the latest episode of "SW Washington's results are confusing," Democrat Rob Hill, who ran for Governor on platform solely consisting of taxing cigarettes more, received 12% in Clark, 17% in Cowlitz, 13% in Klickitat, 16% in Skamania, and 12% in Wahkiakum.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 08, 2012, 12:49:38 AM
In the latest episode of "SW Washington's results are confusing," Democrat Rob Hill, who ran for Governor on platform solely consisting of taxing cigarettes more, received 12% in Clark, 17% in Cowlitz, 13% in Klickitat, 16% in Skamania, and 12% in Wahkiakum.

I thought SW Washington was almost irrationally anti-tax?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on August 08, 2012, 12:55:54 AM
Somebody want's to explain the maps and stuff for the results here?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 08, 2012, 12:59:33 AM
Inslee's best county in Eastern Washington is Yakima, where he got 40%.

Not huge or anything, but certainly a noticeable bump from his days as a Congressman over there, I think.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on August 08, 2012, 01:04:48 AM
So what does teal blue and red mean on that map?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 08, 2012, 01:27:12 AM
So what does teal blue and red mean on that map?

Teal blue are seats not up for election, I believe.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 08, 2012, 01:38:59 AM
Here's a map comparing Murray 2010 (46.04%) and Inslee 2012 (46.77%).

()

Inslee got a bump in his old 1990s 4th CD, especially in Yakima, but not so much in his 2000s 1st CD.

Murray did better in SW WA, where Rob Hill took around 1/3 of the Democratic vote from Inslee...? ???


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 08, 2012, 02:10:13 AM
So what does teal blue and red mean on that map?

Teal blue are seats not up for election, I believe.

Yah.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 08, 2012, 02:37:48 AM
The odd Inslee results in SW Washington have a very simple explanation: They didn't run ads in the Portland media market. None of those counties were a part of the ad blitz that the rest of the state has been experiencing.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 08, 2012, 05:06:05 AM
The Gonzalez/Danielson map is really mind-blowing.  I never would have expected such a little-publicized race (that was so easy to vote in) to have such predictable polarization.  75-25 in King and 29-71 in Adams.  Damn.

I think it's pretty clear that the lack of a Voters' Pamphlet hurt Gonzalez significantly.  Compare King, Pierce and Kitsap (Danielson's home county) to other comparable counties.  (Did Snohomish publish a pamphlet? If not, kind of throws that off, but oh well)

Other observations:

* 3rd LD Rep #1 The 3rd LD (Spokane) is very tight.  Young Democrat Marcus Riccelli clearly leads with 27%, flanked by conservative Democrat Bob Apple, Republican Tim Benn and Democrat Jon Snyder, all with about 20%.  Both of the trailing Dems are on Spokane City Council; Apple is a social conservative.

* 5th LD Senate Cheryl Pflug's mutiny seems to have helped -- Democrat Mark Mullet leads 53%-47%.

* 10th LD Senate Rep. Barbara Bailey has a thin lead in her attempt to unseat long-time incumbent Mary Margaret Haugen.

* 10th LD Rep #2 Democratic Tom Riggs narrowly leads Republican Dave Hayes in Bailey's abandoned seat.  I have no idea who either of these people are.  Google says Riggs is a park ranger and Hayes is a sheriff's deputy.

* 11th LD Rep #2 Democrat Steve Bergquist leads with 28%, followed by certifiably insane Republican Sarah Sanoy-Wright at 25%, and Democrat Stephanie Bowman with 23%.  This downscale Seattle/Renton district added to its Republican minority in redistricting.

* 16th LD Rep #1 Incumbent Republican Maureen Walsh, who voted for marriage equality, is trouncing right-wing primary challenger Mary Ruth Edwards, 63%-37%.

* 17th LD Senate Republican incumbent Don Benton is barely beating Democratic Rep. Tim Probst -- only 133 votes' difference.

* 17th LD Rep #1 Monica Stonier, Probst's Democratic hopeful replacement, is in some trouble -- she's got only 47.3% against two Republicans, the easy winner being Julie Olson (40.4%).

* 20th LD Senate Incumbent Dan Swecker's three-way GOP primary is actually endangering him.  He's only up 46%-41% over John E. Braun.

* 25th LD Rep #1 Dawn Morrell, who Hans Zeiger defeated, did very well tonight, earning 49.3% against a field of mostly Republicans (although another Dem got 4.8%.)  The easy winner among the GOP was Shelly Schlumpf, at 28%.

* 27th LD Senate Rep. Jeannie Darneille easily dispatched self-funding, socially conservative trial lawyer Jack Connelly, 59%-41%, in the state's most expensive leg race.

* 27th LD Rep #2 Tacoma City Councilman Jake Fey (D) narrowly leads Tacoma City Councilwoman Lauren Walker (D) 52%-48% in a battle to decide who gets to vote the same on everything.

* 28th LD Rep #2 Democratic incumbent Tami Green, who I will refrain from disparaging, has 52% to Republican Paul Wagemann's 36%.  Green's showing means she's probably lower-priority from the GOP, but the 28th is always a swing district.

* 29th LD Rep #1 Despite rumblings of a possible D-vs-D race, Democrat David Sawyer (41%) dispatched fellow-D Ben Lawver (24%), and will crush Republican Terry Harder (35%) in the General.

* 30th LD Rep #1 Republican Linda Kochmar (27%) advances to face Democrat Roger Flygare (26%) in a crowded open-seat field where the partisan vote split 53%-47% Republican.

* 30th LD Rep #2 Freshman Republican Rep. Katrina Asay had a somewhat weak showing (47%), and will face somewhat weak Democrat Roger Freeman (33%).

* 36th LD Rep #2 Gael Tarlton (30%) and Noel Frame (21%) advance.

* 39th LD Rep #1 Not sure who Democrat Linda Wright is, but she's giving a scare (48%) to incumbent Republican Dan Kristiansen.

* 46th LD Rep #2 Dem Jessyn Farrell (28%) will advance, probably against Dem Sarajane Siegfriedt (22%).

* 47th LD Rep #1 Incumbent Republican Mark Hargrove, who seems dumb, narrowly leads Democrat Bud Sizemore, 52%-48%.

* 48th LD Rep #2 Bellevue open seat.  Ridiculously impressive Democrat Cyrus Habib leads Republican Hank Myers 55%-45%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 08, 2012, 05:52:03 AM
State race thoughts:

Governor
This is a pretty obvious win for Jay Inslee tonight.  First, his win of 4 points will probably expand -- King County tends to have more late-counted ballots, and they tend to be more Democratic, although Inslee's performance there is already impressive.  Second, the primary electorate is widely assumed to be more pro-McKenna (frequent voters, older, conservative) than the General.  Third, minor Republicans did more poorly than many expected, and Democrats actually lead the partisan ballot here by 4 points.  It's not a disaster, but it's a bad result for McKenna.

Lt. Governor
It looks like Brad Owen will, once again, bleed some affluent social liberals who are paying attention -- probably a little more this time.  The main difference here appears to be that the Republicans are viewed as more credible, and Owen seems to be getting a lot less Republican cross-over than he did last time.  That's enough to finish probably just across the 50% line.  Fools' gold, I'm afraid.

Secretary of State
Greg Nickels being competitive for second kind of surprised me -- he did better outside of King County than I expected (i.e., Kastama didn't slaughter him.)  I think the big surprise here is that Kim Wyman, who a lot of insiders here were expecting to be really tough to beat in the General, didn't even hit 40%.

State Auditor
On the other hand, I think the Republican -- James Watkins -- had pretty impressive performance (46%) here.  I'm also mildly surprised that Troy Kelley beat Craig Pridemore (24%-20%).  I hope Mark "Single Digits" Miloscia feels like a dick.

Attorney General
I know anti-gay Stephen Pigeons's 9% will almost all go to Reagan Dunn, but I still think Bob Ferguson's showing was reasonably impressive.

Commissioner of Public Lands
Does anyone else think that Stephen Sharon got 8% of the vote because he looked so damn friendly?  I think most of his vote will go to Goldmark, but I think Goldmark's 52% against Didier was a little under my expectations.  Didier is just ridiculous.

Superintendent of Public Instruction
Ron "Sexual Anarchy" Higgins, seriously?

Insurance Commissioner
Yawn.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 08, 2012, 06:41:46 AM
I wonder why John Koster did noticeably worse on the vote to fill the unexpired one-month term than in the primary overall.

Does King seriously have only 46 ballots on-hand to be processed?  Maybe turnout was just so godawful they finished counting everything they had tonight, and the only thing left is tomorrow's mail receipts.

I'm running out of interesting observations until I look at precinct stuff more closely.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 08, 2012, 10:37:28 AM
I wonder why John Koster did noticeably worse on the vote to fill the unexpired one-month term than in the primary overall.

There were several more candidates on the one-month term ballot, including another Republican and a member of the "Democrat" Party. That doesn't account for all the shift though.

EDIT: Oh, I got it. The districts were different. The short-term ballot was still for the old WA-01 in Kitsap, Snohomish, and King.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 08, 2012, 10:47:02 AM
Yup, it shows us what a gerrymander it is.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 08, 2012, 02:28:13 PM
The odd Inslee results in SW Washington have a very simple explanation: They didn't run ads in the Portland media market. None of those counties were a part of the ad blitz that the rest of the state has been experiencing.
 

Yeah, we've seen this before. Just look at the Republican primary from 2004 where Rossi did poorly in the same counties. Most of them seemed to flow to Rossi in the general... I don't know how many of Hill's voters will flow to Inslee, though.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=53&year=2004&f=0&off=5&elect=2


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 08, 2012, 04:45:38 PM
I posted this in another thread, but I think it's relevant (because it's about Washington of course, and it's good news):

I work with a lot of local economic indicators in my research internship, and I'm seeing a lot of positive signs [in the housing market] here in Washington as well. The latest housing data that we work with came out today, and it looks like housing prices bottomed during the first quarter of this year statewide and in most major cities. Second quarter numbers are pretty uniformly on the upswing. Statewide housing worth had its largest single quarter increase in at least a decade.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 08, 2012, 07:41:45 PM
With the latest update, Island County is now in McKenna's column. :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on August 08, 2012, 08:52:53 PM
Things looking up from June? :P

So a Republican Governor, State Senate, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, and 5-5 split Congressional delegate is looking possible. Ugh.

Don't forget the Republican Secretary of State :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 08, 2012, 11:04:53 PM
Things looking up from June? :P

So a Republican Governor, State Senate, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, and 5-5 split Congressional delegate is looking possible. Ugh.

Don't forget the Republican Secretary of State :(

I'm feeling better about it. Of course, the Republicans did pretty well in the one race I didn't mention, that for State Auditor. Troy Kelley (the Democrat) will at least be running from our biggest swing county (Pierce).



Why can't all counties use the newer SoS-hosted site that has precinct results? :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 08, 2012, 11:25:31 PM
There was a definite Republican trend to the ballots that were added in today. Be ready for Dems statewide to lose a few points as more come in...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: All Along The Watchtower on August 08, 2012, 11:28:24 PM
I want to know how my previous hometown of Walla Walla voted. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 08, 2012, 11:30:06 PM
I want to know how my previous hometown of Walla Walla voted. :P

You lived in Walla Walla?  ???  Cool.  :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: All Along The Watchtower on August 08, 2012, 11:32:16 PM
I want to know how my previous hometown of Walla Walla voted. :P

You lived in Walla Walla?  ???  Cool.  :)

When I was really young, yeah. Born in Sacramento, moved there when I was less than a year old, moved back to CA (Bay Area) when I was 5.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 08, 2012, 11:34:46 PM
There was a definite Republican trend to the ballots that were added in today. Be ready for Dems statewide to lose a few points as more come in...

Any reason why? King seems to be keeping up with counting a bit more than it usually does, which would presumably be part of it. (Though it looks like Inslee's percent stayed the same - 46.77% yesterday and 46.77% tonight. McKenna may have gone up a little bit, but I don't remember what he originally got.).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on August 09, 2012, 02:20:00 AM
lol at Michael Baumgartner, losing his home county (Spokane) to Sen. Cantwell.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 09, 2012, 04:49:25 AM
Is it just me, or are Democrats slipping in Whitman?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 09, 2012, 12:28:05 PM
Is it just me, or are Democrats slipping in Whitman?

Democrats typically do better there in the general than in the primary. I think it's because WSU is on break during the primary, though I could be wrong.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 09, 2012, 01:41:23 PM
In addition to poor student turnout for primaries, made worse due to it being summer, Whitman has never been very democratic. It voted D by modest margins in landslide years like 06 and 08. I expect it to be a McKenna/Cantwell county in November. Swing for President.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Torie on August 09, 2012, 02:13:54 PM
Sean Trende has turned his gaze (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/08/08/washington_state_primary_results_a_glimpse_of_nov_6__115040.html) upon your fair state. Nothing that arresting in it this time however, but for those of you who like numbers, numbers and more numbers ...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 09, 2012, 08:00:05 PM
Here's a map comparing Murray 2010 (46.04%) and Inslee 2012 (46.77%).

()

Inslee got a bump in his old 1990s 4th CD, especially in Yakima, but not so much in his 2000s 1st CD.

Murray did better in SW WA, where Rob Hill took around 1/3 of the Democratic vote from Inslee...? ???

1990s Congressional map, for comparison:

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on August 09, 2012, 10:34:26 PM
The 3rd district primary map is very stereotypical:
()

Green - Marcus Riccelli
Red - Bob Apple
Yellow - Jon Snyder
Blue - Tim Benn


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 09, 2012, 11:54:39 PM
The 3rd district primary map is very stereotypical:
()

Green - Marcus Riccelli
Red - Bob Apple
Yellow - Jon Snyder
Blue - Tim Benn

Cool!  :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 10, 2012, 12:14:23 AM
Can you say a little more about that?  I know Marcus is a pretty progressive guy, and a former Young Democrats high muckamuck, and Apple is a conservative Dem on City Council...but what about Jon Snyder?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on August 10, 2012, 01:01:25 AM
Can you say a little more about that?  I know Marcus is a pretty progressive guy, and a former Young Democrats high muckamuck, and Apple is a conservative Dem on City Council...but what about Jon Snyder?

Jon Snyder is a stereotypical crunchy progressive: he went to Evergreen, is a strong advocate of gay rights (his mom is lesbian), and was the chair of a local progressive radio station. If you check his website you'll know what I mean: everything about him is a latte liberal stereotype. He only performed well in the south hill and around the core of the city. Bob Apple's pattern of support works the same way: he only performed well in blue collar Spokane but outside of his core, he did very poorly. I've noticed that Apple's signs were nearly exclusively located in the most depressed area of Spokane.

Riccelli reminds me of Josh Mandel: he sounds and looks far younger than he is.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 10, 2012, 02:08:19 AM
Wow... the Republican in that race (that managed to advance) is going to get OWNED.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 10, 2012, 06:21:25 AM
Cool, thanks.  Obviously some Republican cross-over there; I wonder where it went.  And you're right, Marcus is pretty young-looking and I didn't realize he was 34.

I don't know much about Spokane politics, but the winning Republican (Tim Benn) comes across as an idiot.  The other Republican, Morgan Oyler, actually seems intelligent enough, although I'm sure his libertarian leans sunk him with Spokane Republicans.

Oh, hey RealisticIdealist: Did you expect this Tom Riggs guy to pull 49.4% in the 10th?  People around here didn't have that race on their radar.  (also, looks like Haugen's in serious trouble this year)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 10, 2012, 09:39:04 AM
Oh, hey RealisticIdealist: Did you expect this Tom Riggs guy to pull 49.4% in the 10th?  People around here didn't have that race on their radar.  (also, looks like Haugen's in serious trouble this year)

I can't explain it. I did not expect him to do so well at all. In fact, I think I encouraged my dad (we generally talk about these things) to vote for Hayes as I assumed he'd win, and Hayes had a much stronger resume. I mean, it was a park ranger going against a veteran high-ranking sheriff. I guess Riggs is also the president of the Island County Chamber of Commerce, but he didn't advertise that too much. They were both from Camano, but Riggs is winning Island County despite the naval base. Looking at the precinct results, Riggs won both Camano and Whidbey, with 50.3% and 50.9% respectively, and Island is where most of the votes came from, which is why it was close despite losing both Snohomish and Skagit. I wouldn't sleep on Riggs winning in November; he'll have at least two more votes.

As for Haugen, yeah, I don't expect her to win. Bailey's pretty popular around here, especially in Snohomish. The race could tighten a bit in November, but a five-plus point margin is going to be hard to erase.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 10, 2012, 09:50:19 AM
FWIW, the Republicans threw down about 25k in mailers in the Haugen/Bailey race before the primary; the Democrats spent nothing. I think this is Bailey's high-water mark.

They also spent 20k on cable ads against Dawn Morrell and 25k on cable ads against Eric Choiniere. Explains in part their poor showing in part (I anticipate Morrell can make it closer come November; unsure about Choiniere).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on August 10, 2012, 08:05:06 PM
Floyd McKay at Crosscut has a good analysis of the race in WA-1.

http://crosscut.com/2012/08/07/elections/109914/1st-district-fight-delbene-and-koster-finish/ (http://crosscut.com/2012/08/07/elections/109914/1st-district-fight-delbene-and-koster-finish/)

If this were WA-4 or WA-5 we'd probably have to accept a Congresscritter as far to the right as Koster.  But in a swing district like WA-1 there's no reason to.

Fortunately, in DelBene I think we have a candidate with a good chance to win.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 10, 2012, 09:37:43 PM
Why can't all counties use the newer SoS-hosted site that has precinct results? :(

King released their LD breakdown: http://your.kingcounty.gov/elections/2012aug-primary/ElectionNightFinalAbstract.pdf

unfortunately it looks like it's a bunch of incorrect non-sense. Sigh :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 10, 2012, 11:55:24 PM

2012 legislative primaries in Washington State, 1st positions





() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5422_11_08_12_2_05_41.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 11, 2012, 12:13:13 AM
Did you just average the results between the Senate and two House races?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 11, 2012, 12:53:12 AM
Did you just average the results between the Senate and two House races?

No, these are just the results for the 1st house positions.  I'll do a map showing the winners for the 2nd position winners as well.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 11, 2012, 02:00:25 AM
The 29th isn't Republican...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 11, 2012, 02:18:44 AM
The 29th isn't Republican...

btw Fuzzy, thanks for making this awesome map!  I luv u sooooooo much.  <3 <3 <3



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on August 11, 2012, 02:41:28 PM
So, who do you all think is going to win in November?

Edit:Great maps Fuzzy! Although I think you made an error on the senate maps as I'm pretty sure  that the 20th and 2nd districts were won by Republicans.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 11, 2012, 02:42:31 PM
So, who do you all think is going to win in November?

I'm sticking with mah man Jay.


And welcome back.  :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on August 11, 2012, 02:44:01 PM
Thanks!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 11, 2012, 03:08:16 PM
FWIW, the Republicans threw down about 25k in mailers in the Haugen/Bailey race before the primary; the Democrats spent nothing. I think this is Bailey's high-water mark.

They also spent 20k on cable ads against Dawn Morrell and 25k on cable ads against Eric Choiniere. Explains in part their poor showing in part (I anticipate Morrell can make it closer come November; unsure about Choiniere).

Haugen has been pretty terrible on transportation issues. I'd rather have control of the state senate obviously but losing just her wouldn't be too awful.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on August 11, 2012, 03:23:22 PM
I don't think we should get too riled up over the results of a fairly low-turnout election. The final results could look completely different.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 11, 2012, 03:38:38 PM
Edit:Great maps Fuzzy! Although I think you made an error on the senate maps as I'm pretty sure  that the 20th and 2nd districts were won by Republicans.

Thanks Jackson.  :)   Although I looked again at the results today, and it looks like that Democrat in the 2nd is ahead by a single vote now.  lol


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on August 11, 2012, 09:18:12 PM
Is there a reason why that race is so close?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 11, 2012, 10:52:13 PM
^^^ There's another Republican who is pulling in a little less than 20%; it won't be close in November (though Lachney is our best possible candidate in the 2nd).

I'm personally pretty pleased with Tuesday's results. I think we have a good shot at winning all three open Congressional races and have a decent shot at winning every statewide constitutional office. Only downside is the State Legislature - we might net lose a seat in the Senate and three in the House.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 12, 2012, 07:51:43 PM
I'm working on the next map now. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 12, 2012, 07:55:07 PM
So just to clarify, if the primary is any indication, the Senate is likely to go from 27-22 to 26-23? With the Republicans almost certainly taking the 25th, and maybe the 10th, while the Democrats possibly take the 5th?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 12, 2012, 08:29:26 PM
So just to clarify, if the primary is any indication, the Senate is likely to go from 27-22 to 26-23? With the Republicans almost certainly taking the 25th, and maybe the 10th, while the Democrats possibly take the 5th?

Yep. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 12, 2012, 08:33:35 PM
Primaries for the second house positions:

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5422_12_08_12_8_31_20.png)


Btw there's some "Independent Democrat" who got a majority in the 31st, just in case you were wondering about the color.  


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 12, 2012, 09:21:49 PM
I gave $200 to the Approve R-74 campaign today because my (lesbian) state legislator's 12-year-old son came up with a great allegory that incorporated Ralph Waldo Emerson's quote about the purpose of life not being happiness but usefulness etc. etc. etc.  Anyway, I'm easily manipulated by precocious children, but it felt good.

Damn those Jedi mind tricks!  >:(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 12, 2012, 10:13:19 PM
I really want precinct maps for SoS and Auditor in King and Pierce.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 12, 2012, 10:18:26 PM

Btw there's some "Independent Democrat" who got a majority in the 31st, just in case you were wondering about the color. 

Hurst? He's the incumbent and did the same in 2010. I would probably just count him as a Democrat.

I really want precinct maps for SoS in King and Pierce.

I want precinct results from King, period!! We don't even have LD results yet.

I do wonder how well Kathleen Drew did in the 5th LD, since she was State Senator there before. Oh, and I also want to see Lt. Governor in King --- but I grew up in an area that was 45th in the 90s (Finkbeiner) and 5th in the 2000s (Anderson) so maybe only I would find it interesting. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 13, 2012, 12:17:34 AM
U.S. Senate (by party, not candidate)
() (http://img37.imageshack.us/img37/9818/ussenateprimary.png)

(my >50 may be messed up, sorry)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 13, 2012, 12:36:04 AM
Governor (with D>50 fixed)

() (http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/1504/governorprimary.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 13, 2012, 12:56:34 AM
Gonzalez v. Danielson

() (http://img337.imageshack.us/img337/7681/supremecourt.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 13, 2012, 11:07:41 AM
Alcon, you flipped the colors for Facebook? How could you betray us like that? :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 13, 2012, 08:00:40 PM
Alcon I love you so


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 13, 2012, 08:42:50 PM
Alcon, where did you get the Pierce County shapefile? I can make some multi-candidate maps.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 13, 2012, 09:07:57 PM
King fixed their LD breakdown: http://your.kingcounty.gov/elections/2012aug-primary/ElectionNightFinalAbstract.pdf

In the race for Lt. Governor, Deal got 12.98% in the 43rd, 10.01% in the 37th, and 9.46% in the 36th. <3 SECB.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 13, 2012, 09:38:05 PM
Hey Alcon, do you have any other new precinct maps?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 13, 2012, 10:36:40 PM
Here's SoS. Blue is Wyman, Red is Drew, Green is Nickels, Yellow is Kastama, and Orange is Murray

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_13_08_12_10_35_06.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 13, 2012, 10:45:08 PM
The Drew/Kastama split in Tacoma is interesting and a little weird.  Looks like richer liberals went Kastama, and working-class liberals went Drew.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 13, 2012, 10:46:46 PM
Supreme Court Pos. 9 race. Red is McCloud, Blue is Sanders, Green is Hilyer, and Yellow is Ladenburg. Ordering is based on statewide results.

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_13_08_12_10_44_49.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 13, 2012, 11:02:16 PM
Auditor. Red is Kelly, Blue is Watkins, Yellow is Miloscia. Pridemore didn't win any precincts.

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_13_08_12_11_00_49.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 13, 2012, 11:03:02 PM
Any other requests?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 13, 2012, 11:06:49 PM

Would Dem-only versions of SoS and Auditor be doable? You get to see more patterns that way. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 13, 2012, 11:08:46 PM

Would Dem-only versions of SoS and Auditor be doable? You get to see more patterns that way. :)

Sure.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 13, 2012, 11:22:02 PM
Here's SoS as if it were a Dem closed primary. Same colors.

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_13_08_12_11_21_17.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 13, 2012, 11:29:23 PM
Here's Auditor. It was a rout for Kelley.

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_13_08_12_11_28_04.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 13, 2012, 11:42:27 PM
Thanks! Those are very interesting. I can tell where the 25th, 28th, and 30th districts are. ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 14, 2012, 12:02:10 AM
Here are the super exciting Insurance Commissioner maps:

Overall, with Kreidler dominating:

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_14_08_12_12_00_08.png)

Just among Republicans. Blue is Adams, Green is Reilly:

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_14_08_12_12_01_44.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 14, 2012, 01:47:13 AM
Hey Alcon, do you have any other new precinct maps?

Like maps of other counties?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 14, 2012, 02:30:30 AM
Here are some quick LD maps for King County for four of the races. These just make me want precinct maps all the more, though. :(

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_14_08_12_2_29_50.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 14, 2012, 11:53:05 PM
Just LOL: http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/08/14/mckenns-rolls-out-chicks-for-rob-button-design


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 15, 2012, 03:52:25 PM
Time for my home county of Snohomish. First up is SC pos. 9.

I absolutely love this map. This is Snohomish County 101 right here. The clear divide between the poor and minority Democrats along Highway 99, in Tulalip, and exurban Marysville going for McCloud versus the rich liberals along the Sound (Edmonds, Mukilteo, parts of Everett) and in Mill Creek going for Hilyer is amazing. Sanders did well up by Stanwood and Arlington as I expected, and Lake Stevens seemed to be a mix of the three, though its more developed west side and Snohomish went for McCloud.

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_15_08_12_3_43_49.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 15, 2012, 04:21:02 PM
I zoomed in a little too far on this one, but here is the Auditor's race.

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_15_08_12_4_20_18.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 15, 2012, 04:39:07 PM
Governor:

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_15_08_12_4_38_38.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 15, 2012, 04:42:43 PM
Very interesting court map.

Any chance of a Dem-only map for Auditor?

Inslee did pretty well... And it doesn't even look like the 1st CD's competitive Democratic primary is primarily responsible.

Would a 1st CD map be interesting, either Dem-only or all candidates? Or would each just be DelBene/Koster domination?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 15, 2012, 05:20:36 PM
Any chance of a Dem-only map for Auditor?

I made one, but it was really boring. Pretty much if Pridemore won the precinct, he won the Dems (plus a couple more along the Sound), but otherwise Kelley won everything.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 15, 2012, 05:29:48 PM
I don't know if any of you care, but Felix Hernandez just pitched a perfect game at Safeco.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 15, 2012, 06:17:17 PM
I don't know if any of you care, but Felix Hernandez just pitched a perfect game at Safeco.

I do!  :D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 15, 2012, 07:11:21 PM
Cantwell kinda kicked some serious butt:

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_15_08_12_7_10_53.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 15, 2012, 07:51:09 PM
Last one: Secretary of State. The Dems only map was basically all Drew with a few random Nickels sightings.

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_15_08_12_7_49_58.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 18, 2012, 08:17:44 PM
Grrrr... I missed all this good stuff!

I wonder how Cowlitz will vote come November. While Inslee does not fit the county well, neither does McKenna.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 19, 2012, 05:37:05 PM
So I will try my plea again.




If anyone, ANYONE, has a new precinct map of Whatcom county, I would greatly appreciate it if you sent it my way.  Thanks!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 19, 2012, 07:04:31 PM
So I will try my plea again.




If anyone, ANYONE, has a new precinct map of Whatcom county, I would greatly appreciate it if you sent it my way.  Thanks!

Is this what you're looking for?

https://wei.sos.wa.gov/county/whatcom/en/maps/Pages/Mapping.aspx


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 20, 2012, 09:16:42 PM
Sawant will appear on the ballot against Chopp (http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/08/20/write-in-right-on-3415-voters-correctly-spell-kshama-sawants-name)

lol


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 20, 2012, 09:20:29 PM
I think we'll also know tomorrow if the GOP's State Treasurer candidate made it to the general. Looks pretty likely that she will.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 20, 2012, 09:47:04 PM
Real winner of the primary: The Stranger.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on August 21, 2012, 07:39:28 PM
Michael Baumgartner told Josh Feit at Publicola to "go f**k yourself."  I think the state of his campaign must be getting to him.

http://publicola.com/2012/08/21/republican-us-senate-candidate-baumgartner-go--yourself/ (http://publicola.com/2012/08/21/republican-us-senate-candidate-baumgartner-go--yourself/)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 21, 2012, 08:37:28 PM
Im guessing Cantwell should approach 60%, maybe 57-59%, which would top her 2006 win.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 21, 2012, 09:22:22 PM
Michael Baumgartner told Josh Feit at Publicola to "go f**k yourself."  I think the state of his campaign must be getting to him.

http://publicola.com/2012/08/21/republican-us-senate-candidate-baumgartner-go--yourself/ (http://publicola.com/2012/08/21/republican-us-senate-candidate-baumgartner-go--yourself/)

Pretty sure Baumgartner was drunk when he wrote that email. Only explanation that makes sense.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 21, 2012, 11:02:26 PM
So has Baumgartner's campaign for senate actually hurt his chances for future aspirations then?


That was the only reason he was running right? Getting his name out there?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on August 21, 2012, 11:15:39 PM
Baumgartner issued an apology for the statement and then retracted the apology --

http://www.kirotv.com/news/news/local-govt-politics/wa-senate-candidate-apologizes-swearing-reporter/nRG4W/ (http://www.kirotv.com/news/news/local-govt-politics/wa-senate-candidate-apologizes-swearing-reporter/nRG4W/)

This is bizarre, not to mention inappropriate.  I wonder what the debates will be like this fall?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 21, 2012, 11:19:12 PM
Considering how awesome Cantwell is I wouldn't mind seeing her break 60%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 21, 2012, 11:28:11 PM
Considering how awesome Cantwell is I wouldn't mind seeing her break 60%.

Not sure 60% is possible, but I think she has a good chance of beating her 2006 number.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 23, 2012, 05:29:28 PM
Very interesting: http://www.capitalpress.com/washington/djw-foremancantwell-w-mug-082312

Dale Foreman, a Republican, "was a Republican member of the Washington House of Representatives for four years and was majority leader from 1994 to 1996. He was a Republican candidate for governor in 1996 and 2000 and was state GOP chairman from 1996 to 2000. In that role, he served on the Republican National Committee."

and... is supporting Cantwell for Senate. Could she really break 60%? Will this have any effect in the vote from Yakima/Kittitas/Chelan/Okanogan counties?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 23, 2012, 06:02:21 PM
God bless the Washington State GOP.

Speaking of which anyone know what Pam Roach has been up to lately? I feel like its time for her to smack a staffer or something.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 23, 2012, 09:22:44 PM
Wow... Maybe she will hit 60%. I don't know.

God bless the Washington State GOP.

Speaking of which anyone know what Pam Roach has been up to lately? I feel like its time for her to smack a staffer or something.

I believe she got the GOP to let her back into their caucus earlier this year. Basically they had those three Democratic turncoats, and needed to make sure Roach would go along with them. lol.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on August 24, 2012, 01:03:43 AM
I'm not sure if Cantwell will hit 60%, but extreme political polarization in Washington State generally ensures that 40% is the "floor" for any Democrat or Republican running for a major statewide office (governor, senator, arguably even AG).  However, Baumgartner is turning into such a joke at this point I wonder if he will fall below the floor.  I could see something like Cantwell 59% / Baumgartner 38% / Other 3%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 24, 2012, 01:42:20 AM
Ain't no "other" now that we use top-two


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 24, 2012, 01:46:58 AM
Just watched this debate about gay marriage:
http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2012/08/22/dinner-with-dan-savage-topics-gay-marriage-the-bible-lgbt-children/

between Dan Savage and Brian Brown (NOM). Savage is one awesome debater (that or Brown just sucks at life, which very well could be the case).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 24, 2012, 02:15:03 AM
Dan Savage is actually a very, very intelligent guy, and fun to listen to when he's not being a self-aggrandizing dick -- which is often.  However, his articulation here is pretty impressive, even if I don't agree with every word.  (Although I do think he was only about 75% right on the Regnerus study.)

This Brian Brown guy can't be their best debater, and almost completely screwed up the Regnerus study.  He was basically expecting and equipped for a standard talking points debate, and spent most of his time defending against ad hominems that weren't even brought up.  Oh well -- wasted opportunity.  (Not that his side has much of a substantive high-level argument anyway.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 24, 2012, 06:17:48 AM
http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/08/23/what-is-the-difference-between-the-lobby-of-the-washington-state-capitol-and-lieutenant-governor-brad-owens-dining-room

If you're not voting for Brad Owen, raise your hand!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Torie on August 24, 2012, 10:43:41 AM
http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/08/23/what-is-the-difference-between-the-lobby-of-the-washington-state-capitol-and-lieutenant-governor-brad-owens-dining-room

If you're not voting for Brad Owen, raise your hand!

It is too bad the typo didn't just drop the "r," and say "Dear Fiend:"


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 24, 2012, 11:01:44 AM
Not a good idea for a campaign to use the word "schmooze". Ever.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 24, 2012, 12:24:08 PM
Well I'm certainly not voting for Finkbeiner.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 24, 2012, 12:26:04 PM
Yeah. I toyed with it but couldn't bring myself to do it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 24, 2012, 02:22:14 PM
Oh, you guys!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 24, 2012, 02:23:36 PM
I would never forgive myself if we ever ended up with Governor Finkbeiner.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 24, 2012, 06:21:26 PM
I would never forgive myself if we ever ended up with Governor Finkbeiner.

Higher beings like Alcon transcend partisan politics. It's only a matter of time before he evolves into a cloud of energy.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on August 24, 2012, 06:57:17 PM
http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/08/23/what-is-the-difference-between-the-lobby-of-the-washington-state-capitol-and-lieutenant-governor-brad-owens-dining-room

If you're not voting for Brad Owen, raise your hand!

In the primary, I did not.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 24, 2012, 07:10:28 PM
Nah, I totally understand the argument against partisans voting for Finkbeiner.  I just think it's a shame that means encouraging Brad Owen.  He's not quite too old for Governor yet either, j/s.

Also, bgwah, weren't you opposed to voting Finkbeiner in part because you don't want to interrupt your "perfect streak" of not voting for Republicans?  Throwing stones from glass houses, not cool :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 24, 2012, 08:01:37 PM
Personally I plan on simply not voting for that position. Although that effectively becomes a vote for Finkbeiner (not that he's gonna win)..


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on August 24, 2012, 09:26:04 PM
It's pretty amusing that any of you think that Brad Owen isn't going to win 60 percent of the popular vote or more.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 24, 2012, 09:43:12 PM
It's pretty amusing that any of you think that Brad Owen isn't going to win 60 percent of the popular vote or more.

Oh, no, he'll landslide (although maybe not 60%.)  I doubt anyone here thinks otherwise


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 24, 2012, 09:54:34 PM
He won't break 55%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 24, 2012, 10:03:24 PM
It's pretty amusing that any of you think that Brad Owen isn't going to win 60 percent of the popular vote or more.

Oh, no, he'll landslide (although maybe not 60%.)  I doubt anyone here thinks otherwise

Agreed. While I may not like him I will acknowledge that he'll likely get somewhere around 56-58% of the vote.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 24, 2012, 10:14:11 PM
I see Owen maybe winning by around 7.

Anyway, King County released their precinct results!!! http://your.kingcounty.gov/elections/2012aug-primary/results.aspx

Alcon and RI, you're gonna make us lots of pretty precinct maps, right? Please?!?!?!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 24, 2012, 10:36:26 PM
Alcon and RI, you're gonna make us lots of pretty precinct maps, right? Please?!?!?!

I'll see what I can do.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 24, 2012, 10:39:20 PM
Is Owen from Grays Harbor? I just noticed that his best result in the primary was from there (weird).

He also did better in Jefferson (no surprise), Thurston (meh) and Mason (!!!), than he did in King county.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on August 24, 2012, 10:56:06 PM
He's from Mason County, I think.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 24, 2012, 10:59:14 PM
He always does well in that region.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 24, 2012, 11:28:53 PM
He's from Shelton. Represented them in the State Legislature for 20 years before becoming Lt. Governor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 24, 2012, 11:44:50 PM
I am proud to announce that James Robert Deal won a Seattle precinct that covers the northern part of the trendy Georgetown neighborhood plus SoDo.  Deal 40, Owen 24, Anderson 11, Finky 10, Greene 10, Sumner 1.  That's 42%-25% Deal-Owen.  He nearly tied some Cap Hill precincts, getting over 30%.  He broke 30% in precincts in Cap Hill, Central District, the U-District, Ballard, Fremont, and Columbia City.

Congratulations, the Stranger.  That's pretty impressive for some anti-fluoridation crazy.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 24, 2012, 11:55:45 PM
Governor:

() (http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp131/rarohla/2012KingCountyGovPrim.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 25, 2012, 12:18:43 AM
Secretary of State:

() (http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp131/rarohla/2012KingCountySoSPrim.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 25, 2012, 12:20:10 AM
Thanks!!

My wish-list would include D-only maps of Auditor and SoS again. And maybe a Deal map. Oh, and R-only Lt. Governor.

If you have the time, that is. ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 25, 2012, 12:25:51 AM
Also, based off of the precincts he won, I randomly wondered if Kastama is Jewish. And in fact he is, according to Alcon.

Never thought I'd be able to guess something like that based on a map for a race in WA.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 25, 2012, 12:41:38 AM
Auditor:

() (http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp131/rarohla/2012KingCountyAuditorPrim.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 25, 2012, 01:03:53 AM
SC Pos. 9:

() (http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp131/rarohla/2012KingCountySCPos9Prim.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 25, 2012, 01:25:00 AM
US Senator:

() (http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp131/rarohla/2012KingCountySenatorPrim.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 25, 2012, 01:53:31 AM
This is fantastic.  How did you get a shapefile so fast? :P

Also, the unusually Republican precinct in South Lake Union appears to be the result of the new Mirabella retirement home (props to bgwah) and has brought that precinct down to about 55-45 Dem in the Governor's race (67-26 for Senate)...shouldn't be as GOP in the General, but an interesting aberration in the middle of central Seattle.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 25, 2012, 01:58:09 AM
SoS - Dems Only:

() (http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp131/rarohla/2012KingCountySoSPrim-DemOnly.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 25, 2012, 01:59:22 AM
This is fantastic.  How did you get a shapefile so fast? :P

Found it here: http://www5.kingcounty.gov/gisdataportal/ (http://www5.kingcounty.gov/gisdataportal/)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 25, 2012, 02:01:38 AM
This is fantastic.  How did you get a shapefile so fast? :P

Found it here: http://www5.kingcounty.gov/gisdataportal/ (http://www5.kingcounty.gov/gisdataportal/)

Oh, nice.  Good for King County, they've guarded it more in the past.

Would it be possible for you to do a map of Deal's performance by 5% intervals, zoomed in on the City of Seattle? :P I know that's more work, but I'd love the amusement.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 25, 2012, 02:21:48 AM
Auditor - Dems Only:

() (http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp131/rarohla/2012KingCountyAuditorPrimDemsOnly.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 25, 2012, 03:00:51 AM
Lt. Gov (Finkbeiner - Blue, Anderson - Green, Deal - Yellow)

() (http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp131/rarohla/2012KingCountyLtGovPrim.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 25, 2012, 03:11:50 AM
Lt Gov - Reps Only

() (http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp131/rarohla/2012KingCountyLtGovPrimRepsOnly.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 25, 2012, 03:26:51 AM
James Robert Deal, 5% increments

() (http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp131/rarohla/2012KingCountyDealMap.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 25, 2012, 05:43:55 AM
That's hilarious.  Do you mind if I share it around?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 25, 2012, 12:28:03 PM
That's hilarious.  Do you mind if I share it around?

Go ahead. Some sort of attribution would be cool, though. ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 25, 2012, 12:42:27 PM
How about the AG race?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 25, 2012, 07:43:26 PM
Thanks for the maps!

Any chance of a 1st CD Dem primary map?

And this one is semi-complicated... Would it be possible to get a map comparing Inslee and Cantwell? More specifically (since Cantwell almost certainly did better just about everywhere), maybe compare the margins in each race to see where the candidates did better? So you would take Cantwell's number (67.73) minus Inslee's number (59.93) to get that Cantwell did 7.8 points better, and adjust the map accordingly? It's the same math used for the trend maps, basically. So my precinct being 62% Cantwell and 58% Inslee would end up being about 4 points more Inslee.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 26, 2012, 12:56:14 AM
Attorney General:

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_26_08_12_12_55_43.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 26, 2012, 01:12:34 AM
CD 1 - Dems Only (DelBene - Red, Burner - Green, Ruderman - Yellow)

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_26_08_12_1_12_11.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 26, 2012, 01:46:24 AM
Thanks for the maps!

Any chance of a 1st CD Dem primary map?

And this one is semi-complicated... Would it be possible to get a map comparing Inslee and Cantwell? More specifically (since Cantwell almost certainly did better just about everywhere), maybe compare the margins in each race to see where the candidates did better? So you would take Cantwell's number (67.73) minus Inslee's number (59.93) to get that Cantwell did 7.8 points better, and adjust the map accordingly? It's the same math used for the trend maps, basically. So my precinct being 62% Cantwell and 58% Inslee would end up being about 4 points more Inslee.

Here you go. Blue is an area of relative Inslee strength. Red is an area of relative Cantwell strength.

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_26_08_12_1_42_49.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 26, 2012, 01:54:23 AM
So Seattle is an Inslee town and Bellevue a Cantwell town. That makes sense, I suppose.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 26, 2012, 02:31:46 AM
I rather like this look, but it's a little different. It's all three counties for the SC Pos 9 race, without the precinct lines. I like how three different candidates won the three major metropolitan areas: Hilyer won Seattle, Ladenburg won Tacoma, and McCloud won Everett. It also clearly shows the impact of county lines.

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_26_08_12_2_57_40.png)

Edit: Added Thurston County.

Selected City Stats
Arlington: Sanders 33.19%, McCloud 28.13%, Hilyer 21.89%, Ladenburg 16.36%
Auburn: McCloud 28.58%, Sanders 28.37%, Hilyer 26.40%, Ladenburg 16.43%
Bellevue: Hilyer 42.21%, Sanders 25.06%, McCloud 21.90%, Ladenburg 10.60%
Bothell: Hilyer 31.50%, Sanders 30.29%, McCloud 25.25%, Ladenburg 12.78%
-Bothell (Snohomish): Sanders 31.28%, Hilyer 28.18%, McCloud 26.27%, Ladenburg 14.00%
-Bothell (King): Hilyer 34.04%, Sanders 29.53%, McCloud 24.47%, Ladenburg 11.85%
Edmonds: Hilyer 32.85%, McCloud 26.87%, Sanders 24.28%, Ladenburg 15.80%
Everett: McCloud 33.72%, Sanders 26.73%, Hilyer 22.50%, Ladenburg 16.66%
Federal Way: McCloud 27.54%, Hilyer 27.20%, Sanders 26.47%, Ladenburg 18.49%
Kent: Hilyer 29.24%, McCloud 27.97%, Sanders 27.80%, Ladenburg 14.75%
Kirkland: Hilyer 37.72%, Sanders 25.59%, McCloud 23.99%, Ladenburg 12.45%
Lacey: McCloud 31.76%, Sanders 29.20%, Hilyer 21.31%, Ladenburg 17.73%
Lake Stevens: McCloud 31.10%, Sanders 30.94%, Hilyer 22.27%, Ladenburg 15.32%
Lynnwood: McCloud 33.46%, Hilyer 25.31%, Sanders 25.12%, Ladenburg 15.79%
Marysville: McCloud 32.54%, Sanders 29.76%, Hilyer 19.97%, Ladenburg 17.45%
Mercer Island: Hilyer 50.79%, Sanders 21.10%, McCloud 18.99%, Ladenburg 9.06%
Mill Creek: Hilyer 31.65%, Sanders 29.50%, McCloud 24.54%, Ladenburg 14.02%
Mountlake Terrace: McCloud 32.83%, Hilyer 25.92%, Sanders 25.545, Ladenburg 15.55%
Mukilteo: Hilyer 29.17%, Sanders 27.30%, McCloud 27.17%, Ladenburg 16.13%
Olympia: McCloud 31.29%, Hilyer 31.11%, Sanders 21.01%, Ladenburg 16.59%
Redmond: Hilyer 39.61%, McCloud 24.66%, Sanders 24.62%, Ladenburg 10.89%
Renton: Hilyer 30.86%, McCloud 30.47%, Sanders 24.64%, Ladenburg 13.71%
Seattle: Hilyer 55.50%, McCloud 23.80%, Sanders 11.85%, Ladenburg 8.65%
Shoreline: Hilyer 41.18%, McCloud 26.32%, Sanders 21.24%, Ladenburg 11.03%
Woodinville: Hilyer 32.46%, Sanders 26.87%, McCloud 25.43%, Ladenburg 14.84%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 26, 2012, 03:34:49 AM
Hard number fun on James Robert Deal:

Deal received 6.13% in King County.  He received 11% in Seattle, and 3% outside of the city.  That's even lower than his statewide total (4.%).

Deal's best performances were Georgetown/SoDo (30%), Capitol Hill (26%), Central District (23%), Fremont (18%), South Park (18%), North Beacon Hill (17%), and the U-District (17%).

I think it's also pretty clear that Deal is more or less the Stranger's floor.  I imagine a lot of their devotees weren't willing to vote for an anti-fluoridation crank.  Whatever the cause, there were also a lot of Greene and Republican votes (proportionate to other races) in areas where Deal did better.  Owen was the only Democrat on the ballot, yet his two weakest showings in Seattle were Georgetown/SoDo (38%) and Capitol Hill (50%).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 28, 2012, 01:17:44 AM
Anyone else get the feeling that R-74 is going to pass by an unexpectedly large margin? The TV ads in favor have started hitting the airways and I think the pro-equality side has done a great job in selecting people to go on air (Pflug, olds, ect).

I am starting to think that something along the lines of 55-45 in favor could be realistic..
:)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 28, 2012, 01:27:58 AM
Catholic Church is collecting donations at Mass in the next two weeks. NOM will probably drop a boatload of money in sometime in the next few weeks (remember that there are no contribution limits for initiatives).

Expect to see ads very soon about how if R-74 is approved churches will be forced by the government to marry gay couples.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on August 28, 2012, 02:02:01 AM
True, although I feel like NOM is busy elsewhere (Maryland, Maine and Minnesota) and I am not sure if they are going to get anywhere close to matching their counterparts fundraising.

Are the Catholics really collecting at Mass to fight gay marriage? ...and they wonder why their congregations in places like Washington are losing young adherents right and left.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on August 28, 2012, 09:04:12 AM
Expect to see ads very soon about how if R-74 is approved churches will be forced by the government to marry gay couples.

No, the ads will be about how YOUR children will be taught in class about how being gay is ok and people of the same-sex will be able to get married, and how they'll be taught about gay sex and be forced to attend their teachers' gay marriages. Then, the referendum will not pass.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 28, 2012, 09:19:22 AM
Expect to see ads very soon about how if R-74 is approved churches will be forced by the government to marry gay couples.

No, the ads will be about how YOUR children will be taught in class about how being gay is ok and people of the same-sex will be able to get married, and how they'll be taught about gay sex and be forced to attend their teachers' gay marriages. Then, the referendum will not pass.

There will be a healthy mixture of both.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on August 29, 2012, 07:37:39 PM
Not helping McKenna:

Bob McDonnell told Republican Convention delegates from Washington State and Montana at a breakfast yesterday morning that McKenna would govern like Scott Walker has in Wisconsin.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/08/mcdonnell-ties.php#more (http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/08/mcdonnell-ties.php#more)

McDonnell appears clueless about Washington State politics.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 29, 2012, 07:59:44 PM
Also, what's up with McKenna's refusal to release his taxes? I don't care, but the media for some reason seems to be protracting the story.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 29, 2012, 09:44:27 PM
Also, what's up with McKenna's refusal to release his taxes? I don't care, but the media for some reason seems to be protracting the story.

I think it makes him look bad. Maybe he doesn't want us to notice the bribes from Kemper Freeman? :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 29, 2012, 09:55:22 PM
Oh, hey. There is about to be a gubernatorial debate. You can watch it live on KOMO's site. Maybe I'll watch... but its probably going to be a snoozefest.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 30, 2012, 12:10:25 AM
CD 1 - Dems Only (DelBene - Red, Burner - Green, Ruderman - Yellow)

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_26_08_12_1_12_11.png)

A pretty regional map. Ruderman's cluster of precincts in Kirkland is where she lives. Burner got Ames Lake and the part of East King County she lives (or lived?) in. DelBene won the rest, doing best around the Gold Coast where she lives.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 30, 2012, 12:31:46 AM
:D :D :D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 31, 2012, 02:13:53 PM
Awesome work, realisticidealist!  Do you know waht % Cantwell and Inslee got in Seattle and Bellevue?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 01, 2012, 12:55:22 AM
Awesome work, realisticidealist!  Do you know waht % Cantwell and Inslee got in Seattle and Bellevue?

Inslee got 76.73% in Seattle and 48.25% in Bellevue.
McKenna got 19.02% in Seattle and 47.17% in Bellevue.

Cantwell got 82.71% in Seattle and 58.98% in Bellevue.
Baumgartner got 11.58% in Seattle and 32.06% in Bellevue.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on September 01, 2012, 01:02:15 AM
Awesome work, realisticidealist!  Do you know waht % Cantwell and Inslee got in Seattle and Bellevue?

Inslee got 76.73% in Seattle and 48.25% in Bellevue.
McKenna got 19.02% in Seattle and 47.17% in Bellevue.

Cantwell got 82.71% in Seattle and 58.98% in Bellevue.
Baumgartner got 11.58% in Seattle and 32.06% in Bellevue.


Thanks!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on September 01, 2012, 01:22:54 AM
And Baumgartner likely will only get owned even harder in the general given his recent actions.

I like that he challenged Cantwell, a sitting senator, to 38 debates.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on September 01, 2012, 01:40:57 AM
And Baumgartner likely will only get owned even harder in the general given his recent actions.

I like that he challenged Cantwell, a sitting senator, to 38 debates.

Ha ha here's a link:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/29/michael-baumgartner-cussed-reporter_n_1840068.html

;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 01, 2012, 02:25:47 AM
I still don't even understand the Feit incident...how does that email make any sense as a response to a question on abortion?  I'm not saying this is necessarily probable, but it does seem like drunk logic.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on September 01, 2012, 12:55:30 PM
Not to mention the former Washington Republican Party chairman, who has never voted for a Democrat, endorsed Cantwell.

What should be Inslee's vote percentage in Bellevue come the general election? 52%? 54%?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on September 01, 2012, 02:26:02 PM
And Baumgartner likely will only get owned even harder in the general given his recent actions.

I like that he challenged Cantwell, a sitting senator, to 38 debates.

Ha ha here's a link:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/29/michael-baumgartner-cussed-reporter_n_1840068.html

;D

I like how that TV reporter Jasmine Bailey said that Baumgartner is "locked in heated race with Maria Cantwell."  Lol, that is not how I would describe the state of the race.  The only heated thing is the hot mess of the Baumgartner campaign.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 01, 2012, 08:59:05 PM
And Baumgartner likely will only get owned even harder in the general given his recent actions.

I like that he challenged Cantwell, a sitting senator, to 38 debates.

38? A debate in each county or something?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 01, 2012, 09:27:50 PM
And Baumgartner likely will only get owned even harder in the general given his recent actions.

I like that he challenged Cantwell, a sitting senator, to 38 debates.

38? A debate in each county or something?

yep, he asked for one for each county (39)

I can't wait for the Garfield County debate, analyzing all the issues important to the people of Pomeroy


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 04, 2012, 02:36:34 AM
So, Jim Postma crashed a plane...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on September 04, 2012, 10:29:10 AM

Apparently he 'forgot' to put down the landing gear the second time he came around. Oops!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 04, 2012, 11:02:19 AM
I think it's interesting Republicans keep using the "Jay Inslee is a quitter" line.

Pretty sure my then State Senator, Dino Rossi, "quit" to run for Governor, too. And they had no problem supporting him not once, not twice, but three times. ::)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Zioneer on September 04, 2012, 03:46:40 PM
Hey so I was born in Washington, but haven't lived there since I was 5. So I'd like to know a little about Washington politics (I figure this is the general Washington topics thread. If it isn't, please direct me to the right one).

First, what's the general political layout of Washington? From what I understand, the West, specifically the Puget Sound area is very liberal in most cases, while the East is very conservative. And I know Bellingham is a random liberal college town enclave in an otherwise sparsely populated area. But other than that, I don't know much about which parts of Washington have which political affiliations.

Second, what differences do Washington Democrats have with other Democrats? What are they notably more conservative or more liberal on than other Dems?

Third, are those Socialist Alternative guys actually a factor, or is it just a case of "stronger than usual" third party voting?

Fourth, who represents Kent, Washington? I was born there (in '93), so I'm curious to know who would have represented me and who would be representing me now.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 04, 2012, 06:38:48 PM
Hey so I was born in Washington, but haven't lived there since I was 5. So I'd like to know a little about Washington politics (I figure this is the general Washington topics thread. If it isn't, please direct me to the right one).

Welcome to the thread! :) Yes, you're in the right place.

First, what's the general political layout of Washington? From what I understand, the West, specifically the Puget Sound area is very liberal in most cases, while the East is very conservative. And I know Bellingham is a random liberal college town enclave in an otherwise sparsely populated area. But other than that, I don't know much about which parts of Washington have which political affiliations.

Here's the 2008 map:

()

The Puget Sound metro is definitely very left-leaning.  Seattle and its innermost suburban areas are very left-wing, especially on social issues; the affluent east side of Lake Washington has been trending Democratic over the years as social issues have become more prominent.  The outer Seattle suburbs vary, but lean strong Democratic; social issue voting tends to lean left but depends on education/income especially.  Tacoma (south of Seattle), Bremerton (west) and Everett (north) are all left-leaning with some socially conservative Democrats.  Olympia is very left-wing, although its suburbs only tilt left.  Bellingham is the same deal, with some very conservative areas outside of it.

Southwestern Washington varies from right-ring rural areas to working-class industry towns (like Kelso-Longview) to lower-to-upper middle class suburbs and exurbs (the Vancouver area.)

The rest of Western Washington varies like every state does, with some very conservative rural areas, towns that vary by industry and the nature of their population.  Overall, Western Washington is fairly competitive in most elections outside Seattle.

With a few exceptions (parts of urban areas, areas of minority populations and a hippie enclave in the Okanogan), Eastern Washington tends to be Republican and conservative all-around.

Second, what differences do Washington Democrats have with other Democrats? What are they notably more conservative or more liberal on than other Dems?

I'd say they're more liberal overall, although a lot are fiscally moderate.  Washington has quite a few Dem-leaning swing voters that muddle things overall.  Spokane, Tacoma, Everett, Bremerton and the lower-scale Seattle suburbs also have some conservative Democrats.  Overall, though, I'd say there are many fewer blue dogs in Washington versus the national average (not a surprise.)

Third, are those Socialist Alternative guys actually a factor, or is it just a case of "stronger than usual" third party voting?

Non-factor.  They only make the ballot in Seattle districts because no Republican filed.  Even a Republican would kick them out -- which is saying something, considering the voting patterns in central Seattle.

Fourth, who represents Kent, Washington? I was born there (in '93), so I'm curious to know who would have represented me and who would be representing me now.

Pretty sure Adam Smith represents it now, not sure about back then


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on September 04, 2012, 08:41:20 PM
Hey so I was born in Washington, but haven't lived there since I was 5. So I'd like to know a little about Washington politics (I figure this is the general Washington topics thread. If it isn't, please direct me to the right one).

Welcome to the thread! :) Yes, you're in the right place.

First, what's the general political layout of Washington? From what I understand, the West, specifically the Puget Sound area is very liberal in most cases, while the East is very conservative. And I know Bellingham is a random liberal college town enclave in an otherwise sparsely populated area. But other than that, I don't know much about which parts of Washington have which political affiliations.

Here's the 2008 map:

()

The Puget Sound metro is definitely very left-leaning.  Seattle and its innermost suburban areas are very left-wing, especially on social issues; the affluent east side of Lake Washington has been trending Democratic over the years as social issues have become more prominent.  The outer Seattle suburbs vary, but lean strong Democratic; social issue voting tends to lean left but depends on education/income especially.  Tacoma (south of Seattle), Bremerton (west) and Everett (north) are all left-leaning with some socially conservative Democrats.  Olympia is very left-wing, although its suburbs only tilt left.  Bellingham is the same deal, with some very conservative areas outside of it.

Southwestern Washington varies from right-ring rural areas to working-class industry towns (like Kelso-Longview) to lower-to-upper middle class suburbs and exurbs (the Vancouver area.)

The rest of Western Washington varies like every state does, with some very conservative rural areas, towns that vary by industry and the nature of their population.  Overall, Western Washington is fairly competitive in most elections outside Seattle.

With a few exceptions (parts of urban areas, areas of minority populations and a hippie enclave in the Okanogan), Eastern Washington tends to be Republican and conservative all-around.

Second, what differences do Washington Democrats have with other Democrats? What are they notably more conservative or more liberal on than other Dems?

I'd say they're more liberal overall, although a lot are fiscally moderate.  Washington has quite a few Dem-leaning swing voters that muddle things overall.  Spokane, Tacoma, Everett, Bremerton and the lower-scale Seattle suburbs also have some conservative Democrats.  Overall, though, I'd say there are many fewer blue dogs in Washington versus the national average (not a surprise.)

Third, are those Socialist Alternative guys actually a factor, or is it just a case of "stronger than usual" third party voting?

Non-factor.  They only make the ballot in Seattle districts because no Republican filed.  Even a Republican would kick them out -- which is saying something, considering the voting patterns in central Seattle.

Fourth, who represents Kent, Washington? I was born there (in '93), so I'm curious to know who would have represented me and who would be representing me now.

Pretty sure Adam Smith represents it now, not sure about back then
I wouldn't call second homes from Seattle area residents in Okanoganan and Chelan a hippie enclave.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 04, 2012, 10:15:45 PM
^

Methow has a decent number of second homes, which I should have mentioned, but there's definitely a significant population of crunchy types and retirees.  That's just the impression I got when I was there.  Definitely some downscale liberals going on too.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 04, 2012, 11:27:03 PM
Couldn't really be "second homes" if they're registered to vote there.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on September 05, 2012, 12:57:15 AM
Second, what differences do Washington Democrats have with other Democrats? What are they notably more conservative or more liberal on than other Dems?

In terms of the Democrats in Washington State's congressional delegation, I would say there is a clear liberal tilt on social and environmental policy, probably stronger than the average national Democrat.  Washington is arguably the most trade dependent state in the nation.  For that reason, Democratic politicians here are very pro-free trade, which sets them apart from more protectionist sectors in the party.

On a somewhat related note, many liberal Democrats across the country criticize China on human rights, civil liberties, etc.  You'll see little of that from Democratic politicians here, who have spent decades (as far back as the 1960s) advocating for China (and Asia in general) as a trade partner.  Gov. Gregoire has definitely continued that tradition and I expect Inslee or McKenna will as well.  The political and business leadership (Microsoft, Boeing, Starbucks, etc.) in Washington lays down the red carpet when the Chinese President comes visiting, which I suspect you would not see elsewhere.

Washington State is something of a beacon for female politicians.  It was the first state to have women serving in the Governor's Mansion and both U.S. Senate seats simultaneously.  The percentage of women serving in the state legislature has been ranked among the Top 5 states for many years.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Zioneer on September 05, 2012, 10:47:17 AM
Hey, thanks everybody for the clarification. That really helps me to understand Washington politics. I would give you info on Utah politics as a thank-you, but I don't want to hijack the thread.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 07, 2012, 12:38:35 AM
http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019082485_apwaauditortheftaccusation2ndldwritethru.html

Don't blame me. I voted for Pridemore. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 07, 2012, 12:53:48 AM
That's really bizarre although, for what it's worth, I've never heard anyone who didn't think Kelley was a reasonably principled guy.

Then again, I try not to talk to people from the 28th LD too much.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 07, 2012, 01:20:45 AM
That's really bizarre although, for what it's worth, I've never heard anyone who didn't think Kelley was a reasonably principled guy.

Then again, I try not to talk to people from the 28th LD too much.

Oh I see how it is :P

Allegations are totally bogus. The idea that Watkins would be able to uncover this but the House Republicans never were able to in the three elections Kelley ran in should give anyone considerable pause before even looking at the specifics.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on September 07, 2012, 12:36:05 PM
I also voted for Pridemore.. Though now I am bitter that he pissed away an opportunity to give Herrera-Beutler a real challenge (even if he still would have lost).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 07, 2012, 11:30:54 PM
Is Kshama Sawant even a registered voter? I can't find her.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on September 08, 2012, 02:26:46 PM
Prediction time!

What are the chances of the following happening:
Inslee winning by greater than 2% (having a clear win, not requiring days to wait for results)
WA-01 held by the dems
Democrats hold both the state house and senate
Pot legalization passes
Gay Marriage upheld by voters

-----
Lately I have become rather optimistic that all of the above will occur come November. Perhaps more important though - how will the national view Washington State if such a result comes true? Would we enter the running to be deemed (whether deserved or not) the most 'liberal' state in the union?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 08, 2012, 03:46:08 PM
Inslee winning by greater than 2% (having a clear win, not requiring days to wait for results
Don't know if 2% would be a clear win, but maybe a 40% chance.

WA-01 held by the dems
80%. Feeling confident about this one.

Democrats hold both the state house and senate
80%. 100% for the House, and maybe 65-70% for the Senate. Our majority will be smaller, though.

Pot legalization passes
25%.

Gay Marriage upheld by voters
85%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on September 08, 2012, 04:35:45 PM
Inslee winning by greater than 2% (having a clear win, not requiring days to wait for results):

I'd say about 30%, though I think it'll be similar to 2010, with Mckenna (or Inslee) not conceeding until 3-4 days after the election.

WA-01 held by the dems:

75%, I also am pretty confident that the Dem's will win here.

Democrats hold both the state house and senate:

100% for the House, 85% for the Senate.

Pot legalization passes:

I really have no idea if the polling for this issue is accurate, as there isn't much precedence to look at. I'm guessing if the Seattle suburbs vote for it, is passes. So.... 45%?

Gay Marriage upheld by voters:

I'm still concerned... but things are looking decent. The Marriage Equality group has tons of money for ads, so that's a plus for them. I'll go with 55%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 09, 2012, 10:23:31 PM
Here are the counties sorted by percentage of the voting age population registered to vote. Someone with better mapmaking skills than I could map it. Also I don't know how this fangled table system works.

Adams   6,239   12,216   51.07
Whitman   19,740   38,035   51.90
Franklin   28,389   51,449   55.18
Grant   34,985   61,895   56.52
Yakima   102,835   169,193   60.78
Kittitas   20,861   33,431   62.40
Grays Harbor   37,208   57,073   65.19
Douglas   18,357   27,960   65.65
Okanogan   20,727   31,453   65.90
Walla Walla   30,874   45,541   67.79
Mason   33,925   48,325   70.20
Pierce   419,234   597,098   70.21
Chelan   38,922   54,390   71.56
Ferry   4,384   6,053   72.43
Cowlitz   56,486   77,689   72.71
Skagit   65,084   89,164   72.99
King   1,110,063   1,517,747   73.14
Benton   93,389   127,513   73.24
Snohomish   400,448   539,168   74.27
Spokane   270,018   361,719   74.65
Whatcom   118,654   158,935   74.66
Lewis   43,459   57,995   74.94
Clark   234,411   312,788   74.94
Kitsap   146,384   194,637   75.21
Island   47,412   62,212   76.21
Pacific   13,259   17,172   77.21
Asotin   13,163   16,919   77.80
Skamania   6,742   8,608   78.32
Clallam   45,879   58,415   78.54
Thurston   154,003   194,142   79.32
Columbia   2,588   3,255   79.51
Pend Oreille   8,118   10,193   79.64
Klickitat   12,862   15,835   81.23
Garfield   1,500   1,812   82.78
Lincoln   6,811   8,174   83.33
Stevens   27,979   33,036   84.69
Wahkiakum   2,755   3,244   84.93
Jefferson   21,886   25,426   86.08
San Juan   11,624   13,276   87.56
Statewide 3,731,657    5,143,186   72.56


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 10, 2012, 12:55:25 AM
Ignoring the obvious (Hispanics), that's a pretty interesting list.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: minionofmidas on September 10, 2012, 09:29:20 AM
And students in Whitman.

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 10, 2012, 03:38:35 PM

Yeah, and Kittitas, although Whatcom fares very well (smaller proportional student population, I'm sure.  It's still pretty impressive.)

I imagine there aren't many states where the most populous city's county has higher registration rates than the rest of the state.

It looks like Grays Harbor probably has the lowest registration rate among non-Hispanic, non-students, followed by Mason and Pierce.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on September 10, 2012, 03:57:38 PM
SurveyUSA shows Obama leading Washington 54% - 38%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on September 10, 2012, 08:31:59 PM
SurveyUSA shows Obama leading Washington 54% - 38%

No surprise. He should be able to top Kerry's 2004 percentage, but I don't think he'll get more than 55% or 55.5%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 10, 2012, 09:09:17 PM
When will we get numbers for Governor? :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 11, 2012, 12:14:01 AM
required post I don't care about: tentative stadium deal


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 11, 2012, 12:47:16 AM
Congrats on your second term, Mayor McGinn


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on September 11, 2012, 02:26:38 AM
Congrats on your second term, Mayor McGinn
why?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: minionofmidas on September 11, 2012, 05:20:19 AM
It looks like Grays Harbor probably has the lowest registration rate among non-Hispanic, non-students
No surprise there
Quote
followed by Mason
know next to nothing about the place
Quote
and Pierce.
No surprise there, either.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 11, 2012, 09:06:02 AM

He just brought the Sonics back.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 11, 2012, 11:16:37 AM
SUSA results, with good news for Dems, and great news for pot and gay marriage:

Governor
Inslee 49%
McKenna 44%

U.S. Senate
Cantwell 54%
Baumgartner 38%

Referendum 74 (Right to marriage for gay and lesbian couples)
Approved 56%
Rejected 38%

Charter schools
Yes 52%
No 26%

Two-thirds tax increase
Yes 58%
No 21%

Marijuana legalization
Yes 57%
No 34%

Attorney General
Ferguson 42%
Dunn 33%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: © tweed on September 11, 2012, 11:28:18 AM

Marijuana legalization
Yes 57%
No 34%

looks like we'll get the federal invasion


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Supersonic on September 11, 2012, 11:55:19 AM
Two things stand out from that poll for me.

1) McKenna is probably done for.

2) The approve numbers on Referendum 74 seem rather high.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on September 11, 2012, 12:51:50 PM
SUSA results, with good news for Dems, and great news for pot and gay marriage:

Charter schools
Yes 52%
No 26%

Good for neo-liberalism too.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Tender Branson on September 11, 2012, 01:08:28 PM
SUSA results, with good news for Dems, and great news for pot and gay marriage:

Governor
Inslee 49%
McKenna 44%

U.S. Senate
Cantwell 54%
Baumgartner 38%

Referendum 74 (Right to marriage for gay and lesbian couples)
Approved 56%
Rejected 38%

Charter schools
Yes 52%
No 26%

Two-thirds tax increase
Yes 58%
No 21%

Marijuana legalization
Yes 57%
No 34%

Attorney General
Ferguson 42%
Dunn 33%

WA tends to be a great state ...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on September 11, 2012, 01:51:13 PM
SUSA results, with good news for Dems, and great news for pot and gay marriage:

Governor
Inslee 49%
McKenna 44%

U.S. Senate
Cantwell 54%
Baumgartner 38%

Referendum 74 (Right to marriage for gay and lesbian couples)
Approved 56%
Rejected 38%

Charter schools
Yes 52%
No 26%

Two-thirds tax increase
Yes 58%
No 21%

Marijuana legalization
Yes 57%
No 34%

Attorney General
Ferguson 42%
Dunn 33%

WA tends to be a great state ...
Did you not notice the charter schools?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on September 11, 2012, 01:52:22 PM
A full-scale invasion or just a few National Guardsmen pacing the streets of Seattle and breaking windows and killing dogs?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on September 11, 2012, 03:50:34 PM
SUSA results, with good news for Dems, and great news for pot and gay marriage:

Governor
Inslee 49%
McKenna 44%

U.S. Senate
Cantwell 54%
Baumgartner 38%

Referendum 74 (Right to marriage for gay and lesbian couples)
Approved 56%
Rejected 38%

Charter schools
Yes 52%
No 26%

Two-thirds tax increase
Yes 58%
No 21%

Marijuana legalization
Yes 57%
No 34%

Attorney General
Ferguson 42%
Dunn 33%

WA tends to be a great state ...
Did you not notice the charter schools?
Or Tim Eyeman's 2/3 tax increase initiative?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on September 11, 2012, 03:58:38 PM
SUSA results, with good news for Dems, and great news for pot and gay marriage:

Governor
Inslee 49%
McKenna 44%

U.S. Senate
Cantwell 54%
Baumgartner 38%

Referendum 74 (Right to marriage for gay and lesbian couples)
Approved 56%
Rejected 38%

Charter schools
Yes 52%
No 26%

Two-thirds tax increase
Yes 58%
No 21%

Marijuana legalization
Yes 57%
No 34%

Attorney General
Ferguson 42%
Dunn 33%

WA tends to be a great state ...
Did you not notice the charter schools?
Or Tim Eyeman's 2/3 tax increase initiative?
Oh I thought that was the income tax which would have required two-thirds support.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on September 11, 2012, 06:52:11 PM
Washington doesn't have an income tax. Eyeman's initiative is a repeat of his past efforts to require the Washington legislature to have a 2/3 majority to increase any taxes. Basically it constricts their ability to do anything.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on September 11, 2012, 07:03:19 PM
Washington doesn't have an income tax. Eyeman's initiative is a repeat of his past efforts to require the Washington legislature to have a 2/3 majority to increase any taxes. Basically it constricts their ability to do anything.
So that poll didn't include the income tax initiative?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on September 11, 2012, 07:05:45 PM
Washington doesn't have an income tax. Eyeman's initiative is a repeat of his past efforts to require the Washington legislature to have a 2/3 majority to increase any taxes. Basically it constricts their ability to do anything.
So that poll didn't include the income tax initiative?

There isn't one.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 11, 2012, 07:25:25 PM
The Eyman initiative was declared unconstitutional a few months ago. Passage is kind of irrelevant.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on September 11, 2012, 09:47:18 PM
Reagan Dunn is done and Baumgartner's massive defeat is a given.  If McKenna also loses and R-74 is approved, the WA GOP would receive an a$$ whipping of historic proportions.  I'm not too concerned about the Eyman initiative for the reason stated by Meeker.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on September 11, 2012, 11:27:56 PM
The Eyman initiative was declared unconstitutional a few months ago. Passage is kind of irrelevant.

Thank God/FSM


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 12, 2012, 12:17:28 PM
Can someone enter the polls for Governor and Senator into the database?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 12, 2012, 03:04:18 PM
There's a new poll PPP did for the Washington Conservation Voters that has Inslee ahead 48-42.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 12, 2012, 03:47:02 PM
There's a new poll PPP did for the Washington Conservation Voters that has Inslee ahead 48-42.

I don't suppose you have access to any more for that poll that won't get you/us shot?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 12, 2012, 03:54:29 PM
There's a new poll PPP did for the Washington Conservation Voters that has Inslee ahead 48-42.

I don't suppose you have access to any more for that poll that won't get you/us shot?

I wish I was that cool: http://wcvoters.org/files/jay-inslee-sept.-2012-poll-results

Note that McKenna's name recognition is still 6 points higher than Inslee's.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 12, 2012, 04:22:08 PM
Obama 53%
Romney 42%

Inslee 48%
McKenna 42%

Sample was Obama +19 in 2008

No other questions


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 12, 2012, 04:25:16 PM
Inslee is doing better amongst Republicans than McKenna is amongst Democrats.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on September 13, 2012, 01:07:42 AM
Why should that be surprising?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 13, 2012, 01:23:58 AM

It was the opposite in their June poll.

Rob McKenna won by the margin he did in 2008 - and to a lesser extent 2004 - because of crossover appeal from Democrats. That was supposed to give him a path to victory in this race. That crossover appeal has vanished.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on September 13, 2012, 01:32:55 AM
Is it the crossover appeal vanishing or the undecideds breaking towards Inslee? A lot of the earlier polls had undecideds at 15-20% and now they're reaching low double/high single digits.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 13, 2012, 01:43:14 AM
SUSA results, with good news for Dems, and great news for pot and gay marriage:

Governor
Inslee 49%
McKenna 44%

U.S. Senate
Cantwell 54%
Baumgartner 38%

Referendum 74 (Right to marriage for gay and lesbian couples)
Approved 56%
Rejected 38%

Charter schools
Yes 52%
No 26%

Two-thirds tax increase
Yes 58%
No 21%

Marijuana legalization
Yes 57%
No 34%

Attorney General
Ferguson 42%
Dunn 33%

Can someone add these numbers to the database?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on September 14, 2012, 12:31:54 AM
Whelp today I officially moved to the Bay Area... It is with sadness that I renounce my Washington citizenship (although I am waiting until after the election to officially register in Cali). I will be wishing you well in the greatest state of the US. God bless Cascadia!!

-CultureKing


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 14, 2012, 12:36:34 AM
Whelp today I officially moved to the Bay Area... It is with sadness that I renounce my Washington citizenship (although I am waiting until after the election to officially register in Cali). I will be wishing you well in the greatest state of the US. God bless Cascadia!!

-CultureKing

Did you decide grad school was the solution to your quarter-life crisis?

Or did you actually get a job down there? ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on September 14, 2012, 01:25:34 AM
Whelp today I officially moved to the Bay Area... It is with sadness that I renounce my Washington citizenship (although I am waiting until after the election to officially register in Cali). I will be wishing you well in the greatest state of the US. God bless Cascadia!!

-CultureKing

Did you decide grad school was the solution to your quarter-life crisis?

Or did you actually get a job down there? ;)

Somehow I managed to blunder my way into my dream job. Quite honestly its one of those situations where I am terrified that some horrible (wonderful) mistake has been made. Although it should be noted that I am working for a non-profit, which means that I won't be getting rich anytime soon.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 14, 2012, 01:34:38 AM
Whelp today I officially moved to the Bay Area... It is with sadness that I renounce my Washington citizenship (although I am waiting until after the election to officially register in Cali). I will be wishing you well in the greatest state of the US. God bless Cascadia!!

-CultureKing

Did you decide grad school was the solution to your quarter-life crisis?

Or did you actually get a job down there? ;)

Somehow I managed to blunder my way into my dream job. Quite honestly its one of those situations where I am terrified that some horrible (wonderful) mistake has been made. Although it should be noted that I am working for a non-profit, which means that I won't be getting rich anytime soon.

Are those all the details we get? :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on September 14, 2012, 12:41:24 PM
Fine, I'll give you a bit more. ;)
I'll be working in the Fair Trade arena. I completed an Americorps position in July and then realized just how hard it is to find a permanent job as a recent college graduate. Luckily the job in the Bay Area required a bizarrely specific set of qualifications, which I met but only just barely. Luckily with non-profits if you are often given the benefit of the doubt if you can demonstrate a drive/commitment to the movement (and since I lived/breathed social justice while in Central America I definitely did well in that category). Anyways I am just happy to have an awesome opportunity ahead of me!

....also Berkeley is a darn cool place.

also also I worked a job in Seattle for one day and then immediately quit upon receiving the offer from the Bay Area = awkward.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 14, 2012, 03:31:50 PM
I can't find a copy online, but a political reporter from the Seattle Times tweeted that the new Elway poll has Dems with "big leads" in all the statewide races sans Governor (where Inslee leads by a more modest 44-41).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on September 14, 2012, 05:48:58 PM
Guys, our facebook page only has 2 followers in metro Seattle.  Where are you guys?? :(

https://www.facebook.com/FuzzybigfootsHistoricalElectionMaps?ref=hl


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on September 14, 2012, 05:49:38 PM
And if you want to join the site as a contributor or whatever, you can PM me.  :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 14, 2012, 07:37:47 PM
405 RVs, 9/9-12, Elway Poll

Obama 53%
Romney 36%

Inslee 44%
McKenna 41%

Ferguson 40%
Dunn 27%

Owen 43%
Finkbeiner 27%

Can't find the actual poll, though


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 14, 2012, 07:40:50 PM
Drew 40%
Wyman 32%

Kelley 36%
Watkins 27%

Goldmark 39%
Didier 29%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 14, 2012, 07:51:16 PM
I'm getting increasingly confident that we're going to win all the statewide offices. Reed and McKenna were able to hold on in 2008 because they were incumbents with crappy opponents. There aren't any Republican incumbents this time around, and in order for a Republican to win statewide in an open seat race they need to get at least 40% in King County (McKenna got 46% in '04, Reed 40% in '00).

Wyman + the Constitution Party candidate got only 31% there in the primary; Dunn + the minor Republican got 38%; Watkins got 34%. Unless something pretty radical shifts, I think the increasingly partisan nature of the electorate is going to work very much in our favor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 14, 2012, 08:04:25 PM
No ballot measure results?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 14, 2012, 08:08:04 PM
Doesn't look like the asked them. Poll probably would've been too long to be manageable.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: minionofmidas on September 17, 2012, 06:49:33 AM
Washington doesn't have an income tax. Eyeman's initiative is a repeat of his past efforts to require the Washington legislature to have a 2/3 majority to increase any taxes. Basically it constricts their ability to do anything.
58% Pro-Suicide.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: minionofmidas on September 17, 2012, 06:50:44 AM
The Eyman initiative was declared unconstitutional a few months ago. Passage is kind of irrelevant.
Ah. It helps to read on.

How does that work? It's illegal but you can vote on it anyhow? Seems bizarre.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 17, 2012, 11:36:25 AM
The Eyman initiative was declared unconstitutional a few months ago. Passage is kind of irrelevant.
Ah. It helps to read on.

How does that work? It's illegal but you can vote on it anyhow? Seems bizarre.

The 2010 version of the initiative (with the exact same language) was declared unconstitutional. There's nothing to stop it from appearing on the ballot again this year (and again and again) if folks gather the necessary signatures, but it'll be defeated in a court challenge very easily thanks to the precedent established.

(this is all pending an appeal to the State Supreme Court later this month)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 18, 2012, 01:53:33 PM
New Lolway Poll, Referendum 74:

Approved 51%
Rejected 37%
Undecided 12%

Preserve Marriage Washington is trumpeting that most measures polling under 60% at this time of year go on to fail.  This is kind of amusing, since in 2009, Elway's September poll showed Referendum 71 passing with only 46% Approved versus 41% Rejected, and 13% undecided.  And that ends my three sentences of pretending that Elway is a serious pollster.

The campaign opposing R-74 has paid for about $1.5 million in ads, so this may not last, but the overall polling seems to suggest that R-74 is doing better now than R-71 as the same period three years ago.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on September 18, 2012, 02:21:18 PM
The campaign opposing R-74 has paid for about $1.5 million in ads, so this may not last, but the overall polling seems to suggest that R-74 is doing better now than R-71 as the same period three years ago.

However, I think the pro R-74 people have quite a bit of additional money for ads, etc.
I'm no fan of Elway polls either, but the SUSA and PPP polls on R-74 have been suspiciously to good to be true....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 18, 2012, 08:37:08 PM
http://www.king5.com/news/politics/KING-5-poll-Koster-has-narrow-lead-over-DelBene-in-1st-District-170117796.html

Koster 46%
DelBene 42%

...with the policy questions not so great for DelBene.

(SUSA)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 18, 2012, 09:03:07 PM
http://www.king5.com/news/politics/KING-5-poll-Koster-has-narrow-lead-over-DelBene-in-1st-District-170117796.html

Koster 46%
DelBene 42%

...with the policy questions not so great for DelBene.

(SUSA)

Obama and Romney are tied in that district? Not buying it.

I'm sure Goldy will have to gloat if DelBene loses. Not that he understands it's safe to cut of 3-5% from what DelBene gets to see what Burner would have gotten.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on September 18, 2012, 09:33:42 PM
Yeah, and Koster is tied with women?  LOL


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on September 18, 2012, 10:29:02 PM
I'm getting increasingly confident that we're going to win all the statewide offices. Reed and McKenna were able to hold on in 2008 because they were incumbents with crappy opponents. There aren't any Republican incumbents this time around, and in order for a Republican to win statewide in an open seat race they need to get at least 40% in King County (McKenna got 46% in '04, Reed 40% in '00).

Wyman + the Constitution Party candidate got only 31% there in the primary; Dunn + the minor Republican got 38%; Watkins got 34%. Unless something pretty radical shifts, I think the increasingly partisan nature of the electorate is going to work very much in our favor.

How about the legislature?  Will Democrats be able to solidify their majorities in either chamber?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on September 18, 2012, 10:57:12 PM
They already have solid majorities in both. It's likely that the Dems will lose one or two seats in the Senate, but I think the house will be about even.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 25, 2012, 12:04:33 AM
()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on September 25, 2012, 12:18:10 AM
Yeah, poor Robby. Things were honestly looking really good for him a few months ago. But now..
This may be one of those places where Romney's poor campaign organization really hurts other candidates (not that Romney would win the state but at least keep enough Republican energized to give Rob a chance).

That being said:
:)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 25, 2012, 12:19:03 AM
I'm getting increasingly confident that we're going to win all the statewide offices. Reed and McKenna were able to hold on in 2008 because they were incumbents with crappy opponents. There aren't any Republican incumbents this time around, and in order for a Republican to win statewide in an open seat race they need to get at least 40% in King County (McKenna got 46% in '04, Reed 40% in '00).

Wyman + the Constitution Party candidate got only 31% there in the primary; Dunn + the minor Republican got 38%; Watkins got 34%. Unless something pretty radical shifts, I think the increasingly partisan nature of the electorate is going to work very much in our favor.

How about the legislature?  Will Democrats be able to solidify their majorities in either chamber?

Senate: R's will pick-up the 25th, D's the 5th. The 10th and the 17th are toss-ups. My gut tells me the GOP will win both but we'll see. The 1st, the 2nd, the 19th and the 28th are not actually competitive despite what either side may be saying.

House: R's will pick-up the 17th, Pos. 1, the 28th, Pos. 1 and perhaps the 30th, Pos. 1. D's will likely pick-up the 25th, Pos. 1 and have an outside shot at the 10th, Pos. 2 and the 47th, Pos. 1.

If I were a betting man on this stuff, I'd say a 26-23 State Senate and 54-44 State House


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on September 25, 2012, 12:40:37 AM
lol that picture


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on September 25, 2012, 12:42:41 AM
PDC complaint targets Kathleen Drew's husband:

Quote
The personnel director for Thurston County has filed an illegal campaigning complaint against county Assessor Steven Drew, alleging that the Democrat solicited donations for commissioner Sandra Romero’s re-election from four top managers during a meeting in county offices on Feb. 9.

Perhaps more damaging in the 2012 election cycle is a second accusation: that Drew asked one of his managers in the last year to get information from the office of Auditor Kim Wyman that his wife, Kathleen Drew, might use in her campaign for secretary of state against Wyman. The complaint says one of Drew’s managers quoted him as saying, “For full disclosure, I don’t need this information in my capacity as Assessor, but the information would be helpful for my wife.’’
http://www.theolympian.com/2012/09/21/2259671/pdc-complaint-targets-thurston.html (http://www.theolympian.com/2012/09/21/2259671/pdc-complaint-targets-thurston.html)

Steven Drew response: http://www.theolympian.com/2012/09/24/2262514/assessor-steven-drew-says-he-spoke.html (http://www.theolympian.com/2012/09/24/2262514/assessor-steven-drew-says-he-spoke.html)

We'll see if this story has legs.  Right now it is just a he said/she said story.  It will be interesting to see if Wyman tries to use it as an issue attack.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 25, 2012, 01:50:38 AM

this changed my life


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on September 25, 2012, 08:48:53 AM
I was wondering when they were going to get to Washington.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/24/washington-state-womens-rights-and-big-cities/

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 25, 2012, 11:53:53 AM
Do they always source the Atlas in those posts? I'd never noticed that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 25, 2012, 08:20:43 PM
I was wondering when they were going to get to Washington.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/24/washington-state-womens-rights-and-big-cities/

()

That... wasn't very interesting or informative.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 25, 2012, 08:27:01 PM
I was wondering when they were going to get to Washington.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/24/washington-state-womens-rights-and-big-cities/

()

That... wasn't very interesting or informative.

You are not the average reader :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 25, 2012, 08:47:44 PM
Even with all of their "lol lol hipster" stuff in the last article, I liked it much better.  Viewing Washington's political leanings almost entirely through the lens of women's rights and abortion is pretty lazy


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on September 25, 2012, 10:25:07 PM
Even with all of their "lol lol hipster" stuff in the last article, I liked it much better.  Viewing Washington's political leanings almost entirely through the lens of women's rights and abortion is pretty lazy

Agreed. And considering that the author is on the faculty at UW just makes it seem all the worse. Very poor job.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 26, 2012, 08:03:58 PM
Here are the combined D and R totals in the gubernatorial race by LD. (https://docs.google.com/a/gwmail.gwu.edu/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsXAV_drKEX_dE80T0lkTGRndVhDUWhCaFR1MGVWaUE) I disregarded the three Independents.

There are obviously a lot of flaws in drawing too many conclusions from this data, but it's a first look at hard numbers for the new lines. (I'll do this again after the general and average all the statewide races together.)

The Democratic vote is more inefficient than ever for the State Legislature. Democrats were below their statewide average in 29 out of 49 LD's. I suspect over the next decade you will see Democrats fairly easily winning statewide races thanks to King County while simultaneously struggling to grow or maintain their majorities in the State Legislature (which is, not coincidentally, what we're seeing this year).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 26, 2012, 08:47:26 PM
Additionally, just for kicks:

Solid Democratic LD's: These LD's will not elect a Republican. No Republicans currently hold them. 3rd, 11th, 21st, 22nd, 27th, 29th, 32nd, 33rd, 34th, 36th, 37th, 40th, 43rd, 46th. 14 Senate seats, 28 House seats.

Less Solid Democratic LD's: Under very unusual circumstances a Republican could win here. They came close in a few of these districts in 2010 (though the lines were slightly different from now). 1st, 23rd, 24th, 38th, 48th, 49th. 6 Senate seats, 12 House seats.

Lean Democratic LD's: These districts have a Democratic tinge but will elect Republicans given the right candidate and the right year. Republicans currently hold two of these Senate seats and one of these House Seats. 19th, 30th, 41st, 45th. 4 Senate seats, 8 House seats.

Toss-up: Free-for-all districts. The Senate seats are currently 2D, 2R and Tim Sheldon; the House seats are 6D and 4R. 10th, 28th, 35th, 44th, 47th. 5 Senate seats, 10 House seats.

Lean Republican LD's: A Republican tinge but Democrats can win under the correct circumstances. Democrats have two of these Senate seats (though one will flip this fall and the incumbent in the other one - Derek Kilmer - is likely to be elected to Congress). They also have one of these House seats. 5th, 25th, 26th, 39th, 42nd. 5 Senate seats, 10 House seats.

Less Solid Republican LD's: These aren't quite out of reach for Democrats but are pretty close to it. Democrats hold none of these Senate seats and two of these House seats (one of whom is "Independent Democrat" Chris Hurst). 2nd, 6th, 17th, 31st. 4 Senate seats, 8 House seats.

Solid Republican LD's: Wastelands for Democrats. The last Democrat to represent one of these districts (Bill Grant) passed away in 2009. He will be the last one for a very long time. 4th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th, 18th, 20th. 11 Senate seats, 22 House seats.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 26, 2012, 08:53:41 PM
So when you predict the Senate will be 26-23, does that mean it would likely become 25-24 when the Rs win the special for Kilmer's seat next year?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 26, 2012, 09:02:11 PM
So when you predict the Senate will be 26-23, does that mean it would likely become 25-24 when the Rs win the special for Kilmer's seat next year?

Yes, sadly. With Tim Sheldon holding the balance of power.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 26, 2012, 09:04:31 PM
So when you predict the Senate will be 26-23, does that mean it would likely become 25-24 when the Rs win the special for Kilmer's seat next year?

Yes, sadly. With Tim Sheldon holding the balance of power.

And Litzow should be re-elected, if the primary is any indication.

I don't know how strong Hill will be in 2014. Springer might be able to knock him off.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 26, 2012, 09:07:18 PM
Hill probably could be beaten with the correct candidate. Picking up the 28th once Carrell leaves is also a must.

On the whole it's a pretty bleak future though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on September 26, 2012, 09:08:57 PM
So when you predict the Senate will be 26-23, does that mean it would likely become 25-24 when the Rs win the special for Kilmer's seat next year?

Yes, sadly. With Tim Sheldon holding the balance of power.

That is a rather terrifying prospect.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 26, 2012, 09:11:33 PM
Hill probably could be beaten with the correct candidate. Picking up the 28th once Carrell leaves is also a must.

On the whole it's a pretty bleak future though.

It's hard to predict this sort of thing, though. A year ago, I doubt any of us realized the 5th would be a possible Democratic pick-up, for example. Who knows what we might win.

If by "bleak" you mean we probably won't have 30 seats any time soon, then I guess you're right. :P We'll have to wait and see if any more suburbs trend D like the Eastside did in the 00s.

Interestingly enough, the 37th and 43rd are two of the fastest growing districts in the state right now. So Seattle might actually be slightly underrepresented as the decade progresses, while in the past it it tended to be over represented due to slower growth than the state (and in a few decades, population decline).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 26, 2012, 09:21:47 PM
Hill probably could be beaten with the correct candidate. Picking up the 28th once Carrell leaves is also a must.

On the whole it's a pretty bleak future though.

It's hard to predict this sort of thing, though. A year ago, I doubt any of us realized the 5th would be a possible Democratic pick-up, for example. Who knows what we might win.

If by "bleak" you mean we probably won't have 30 seats any time soon, then I guess you're right. :P We'll have to wait and see if any more suburbs trend D like the Eastside did in the 00s.

Interestingly enough, the 37th and 43rd are two of the fastest growing districts in the state right now. So Seattle might actually be slightly underrepresented as the decade progresses, while in the past it it tended to be over represented due to slower growth than the state (and in a few decades, population decline).

I want my supermajority and I want it now! :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 27, 2012, 02:05:38 AM
I'm getting increasingly confident that we're going to win all the statewide offices. Reed and McKenna were able to hold on in 2008 because they were incumbents with crappy opponents. There aren't any Republican incumbents this time around, and in order for a Republican to win statewide in an open seat race they need to get at least 40% in King County (McKenna got 46% in '04, Reed 40% in '00).

Wyman + the Constitution Party candidate got only 31% there in the primary; Dunn + the minor Republican got 38%; Watkins got 34%. Unless something pretty radical shifts, I think the increasingly partisan nature of the electorate is going to work very much in our favor.

How about the legislature?  Will Democrats be able to solidify their majorities in either chamber?

Senate: R's will pick-up the 25th, D's the 5th. The 10th and the 17th are toss-ups. My gut tells me the GOP will win both but we'll see. The 1st, the 2nd, the 19th and the 28th are not actually competitive despite what either side may be saying.

House: R's will pick-up the 17th, Pos. 1, the 28th, Pos. 1 and perhaps the 30th, Pos. 1. D's will likely pick-up the 25th, Pos. 1 and have an outside shot at the 10th, Pos. 2 and the 47th, Pos. 1.

If I were a betting man on this stuff, I'd say a 26-23 State Senate and 54-44 State House

I just skimmed over the most recent fundraising numbers and feel much better about D prospects in the 30th, Pos. 1 and the 47th, Pos. 1 FWIW. Also feel much worse about prospects in the 17th, however...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 27, 2012, 12:41:02 PM
http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/simgad/15936881353639972056

Just... lol


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on September 27, 2012, 01:20:31 PM
I think McKenna is going to win.  Most of the pundits in Washington State think he has a better chance, and he will probably make some inroads with moderates (Inslee will still win them, but McKenna will do better than most Republicans.)  Granted, I don't live in Washington State, but I still think that McKenna will win.  The most recent poll I saw had Inslee leading by three points, but it was within the margin of error and was a poll of registered rather than likely voters.  Once those two things are factored in, it seems at least somewhat likely to me that McKenna is leading.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Earthling on September 27, 2012, 01:28:02 PM
SurveyUSA and PPP both had polls with Likely Voters. Inslee was leading in 5 and 6 points in these polls.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 27, 2012, 01:31:20 PM
I think McKenna is going to win.  Most of the pundits in Washington State think he has a better chance, and he will probably make some inroads with moderates (Inslee will still win them, but McKenna will do better than most Republicans.)  Granted, I don't live in Washington State, but I still think that McKenna will win.  The most recent poll I saw had Inslee leading by three points, but it was within the margin of error and was a poll of registered rather than likely voters.  Once those two things are factored in, it seems at least somewhat likely to me that McKenna is leading.

k


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 27, 2012, 05:14:04 PM
McKenna might win... But not if he loses "moderates."


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on September 27, 2012, 05:56:13 PM
McKenna might win... But not if he loses "moderates."
He'll definitely lose moderates, since they're a safely Democratic voting bloc.  But if he can get 40% or more of the moderate vote, which there is a good chance of, he will probably win.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on September 27, 2012, 06:19:59 PM
I think McKenna is going to win.  Most of the pundits in Washington State think he has a better chance, and he will probably make some inroads with moderates (Inslee will still win them, but McKenna will do better than most Republicans.)  Granted, I don't live in Washington State, but I still think that McKenna will win.  The most recent poll I saw had Inslee leading by three points, but it was within the margin of error and was a poll of registered rather than likely voters.  Once those two things are factored in, it seems at least somewhat likely to me that McKenna is leading.

k


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on September 27, 2012, 06:23:15 PM
McKenna might win... But not if he loses "moderates."
He'll definitely lose moderates, since they're a safely Democratic voting bloc.  But if he can get 40% or more of the moderate vote, which there is a good chance of, he will probably win.

Mckenna won't get anywhere near that level for Democrat moderates. As for independents, the only way Mckenna wins is if he leads that group.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 27, 2012, 11:55:37 PM
This is a really bizarre observation, but...if you look at the state voter database (or VoteBuilder or whatever), and look up people born on the 1st of any year, they're way, way disproportionately likely to have Muslim names.  Can anyone think of any explanation for that?

Maybe no record of their birth or something?  (Seems like a few Vietnamese, as well)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 28, 2012, 02:06:10 AM
ACORN/voter fraud, most likely


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on September 28, 2012, 07:09:10 AM
You guys just won't admit that the pundits all agree that McKenna has a better chance.  And "Democrat moderates"?  The overwhelming majority of moderates who identify with a party are Democrats.  McKenna has been running a campaign based on economic issues, as I understand, and that means he can still make significant inroads.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on September 28, 2012, 08:04:05 AM
You guys just won't admit that the pundits all agree that McKenna has a better chance.  And "Democrat moderates"?  The overwhelming majority of moderates who identify with a party are Democrats.  McKenna has been running a campaign based on economic issues, as I understand, and that means he can still make significant inroads.

......

Link?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Miles on September 28, 2012, 08:46:10 AM
You guys just won't admit that the pundits all agree that McKenna has a better chance.  And "Democrat moderates"?  The overwhelming majority of moderates who identify with a party are Democrats.  McKenna has been running a campaign based on economic issues, as I understand, and that means he can still make significant inroads.

......

Link?

But a majority of recent polls show that Inslee has the better chance. (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2012/polls.php?fips=53)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 28, 2012, 12:40:15 PM
Rasmussen, 500 LV, 9/26/2012

Inslee 46%
McKenna 45%

Anyone with access to more of the poll?

Apparently they also polled pot and Gregoire approval (strange two selections)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: minionofmidas on September 28, 2012, 03:57:02 PM
This is a really bizarre observation, but...if you look at the state voter database (or VoteBuilder or whatever), and look up people born on the 1st of any year, they're way, way disproportionately likely to have Muslim names.  Can anyone think of any explanation for that?

Maybe no record of their birth or something?
Yes, and little tradition of remembering birthdays. Should be even more pronounced on January 1st. (With Southern Blacks in the old days you got the opposite issue - they always knew their birthday but usually not the year. Though that of course resulted in their making a number up rather than all be recorded as born in xx00.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 28, 2012, 05:45:16 PM
You guys just won't admit that the pundits all agree that McKenna has a better chance.  And "Democrat moderates"?  The overwhelming majority of moderates who identify with a party are Democrats.  McKenna has been running a campaign based on economic issues, as I understand, and that means he can still make significant inroads.

Are you dumb or just trolling? Most of us have spent the last four years thinking McKenna would win. It's only since August that we've started thinking differently, given the primary results and numerous polls showing Inslee ahead, not too mention McKenna's less than impressive campaign thus far. And despite all of that, all of us will still acknowledge he has a good chance.

It's nothing personal... You just don't know what you're talking about. Most posters know better than to get into too much detail over our state, given how knowlegable our WA posters are. Even the Sam and Al types avoid it. Lewis tries, and he's usually not wrong, just pointing our something thats so obvious to the WA posters its not even worth mentioning, like how Whitman=students (no offense Lewis, you know we love you.)

But anyway, don't think you can get away with dismissing our analyses as partisan. They're about the only non-partisan thing in here! :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on September 29, 2012, 01:19:55 AM
It was coming in some way:

http://www.komonews.com/news/local/Political-staffer-taking-heat-after-controversial-Tweet-171871901.html

Somebody meemed McKenna's photo.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 29, 2012, 01:42:10 AM
This is a really bizarre observation, but...if you look at the state voter database (or VoteBuilder or whatever), and look up people born on the 1st of any year, they're way, way disproportionately likely to have Muslim names.  Can anyone think of any explanation for that?

Maybe no record of their birth or something?
Yes, and little tradition of remembering birthdays. Should be even more pronounced on January 1st. (With Southern Blacks in the old days you got the opposite issue - they always knew their birthday but usually not the year. Though that of course resulted in their making a number up rather than all be recorded as born in xx00.)

Yeah, sorry, by "first of the year" I meant January 1st.  Thanks.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 29, 2012, 01:50:22 AM
It was coming in some way:

http://www.komonews.com/news/local/Political-staffer-taking-heat-after-controversial-Tweet-171871901.html

Somebody meemed McKenna's photo.

lol. Especially at Baumgartner.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on September 29, 2012, 04:40:08 AM
You guys just won't admit that the pundits all agree that McKenna has a better chance.  And "Democrat moderates"?  The overwhelming majority of moderates who identify with a party are Democrats.  McKenna has been running a campaign based on economic issues, as I understand, and that means he can still make significant inroads.

Inslee won the primary 47-43.  Most notably, McKenna got 34% in King County.  That is awful.  Any political analyst/writer in Washington will say a candidate cannot win statewide with King County numbers like that.   Inslee has led every poll I've seen since late July.

This Danny Westneat column might be instructive:

http://seattletimes.com/html/dannywestneat/2018947176_danny19.html (http://seattletimes.com/html/dannywestneat/2018947176_danny19.html)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Boris on September 29, 2012, 11:14:37 AM
You guys just won't admit that the pundits all agree that McKenna has a better chance.  And "Democrat moderates"?  The overwhelming majority of moderates who identify with a party are Democrats.  McKenna has been running a campaign based on economic issues, as I understand, and that means he can still make significant inroads.

Are you dumb or just trolling? Most of us have spent the last four years thinking McKenna would win. It's only since August that we've started thinking differently, given the primary results and numerous polls showing Inslee ahead, not too mention McKenna's less than impressive campaign thus far. And despite all of that, all of us will still acknowledge he has a good chance.

It's nothing personal... You just don't know what you're talking about. Most posters know better than to get into too much detail over our state, given how knowlegable our WA posters are. Even the Sam and Al types avoid it. Lewis tries, and he's usually not wrong, just pointing our something thats so obvious to the WA posters its not even worth mentioning, like how Whitman=students (no offense Lewis, you know we love you.)

But anyway, don't think you can get away with dismissing our analyses as partisan. They're about the only non-partisan thing in here! :P


How impressed would you be if someone from like Finland walked into this thread and just started throwing down the most esoteric information about Washington ever?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: minionofmidas on September 29, 2012, 12:20:21 PM
This is a really bizarre observation, but...if you look at the state voter database (or VoteBuilder or whatever), and look up people born on the 1st of any year, they're way, way disproportionately likely to have Muslim names.  Can anyone think of any explanation for that?

Maybe no record of their birth or something?
Yes, and little tradition of remembering birthdays. Should be even more pronounced on January 1st. (With Southern Blacks in the old days you got the opposite issue - they always knew their birthday but usually not the year. Though that of course resulted in their making a number up rather than all be recorded as born in xx00.)

Yeah, sorry, by "first of the year" I meant January 1st.  Thanks.
It's called reading comprehension. Somehow I read you as claiming it was on the first of every month. I dunno why.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on September 29, 2012, 08:18:46 PM
You guys just won't admit that the pundits all agree that McKenna has a better chance.   And "Democrat moderates"?  The overwhelming majority of moderates who identify with a party are Democrats.  McKenna has been running a campaign based on economic issues, as I understand, and that means he can still make significant inroads.

......

Link?

But a majority of recent polls show that Inslee has the better chance. (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2012/polls.php?fips=53)

Yeah, but they're close and don't necessarily reflect a better chance for the Democrats.  Most polls still have it within the margin of error.  And McKenna got 34% in King County?  That was just in the primary, though, right?  This race is probably a toss-up.  I saw an analysis from a guy in Washington state who made a comment about how nobody he knew thought Inslee had a better chance of winning.  Admittedly, though, I would love to see the Republicans recover from a 28-year drought of no governors there.  Don't make it 32 years, you guys!  McKenna all the way!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 29, 2012, 09:03:07 PM
^

I mean, I'm sure people who believe that exist, but on what basis?  A few months ago, most of us would have agreed -- Inslee seemed stuck in a rut of 3-7 points behind.  But the race has clearly shifted by every indicator toward Inslee.  Unless these pundits and friends-of-pundits have an argument that goes beyond gut feeling, I'm not sure why I'd pay much attention to it.  Yes, McKenna's poor performance was only the primary, but it's not like there's reason to believe the primary electorate would be unusually hostile to him.  (Although, to be fair, McKenna did do better in the 2008 General than the 2008 Primary by several points...but I think that was more because he ran the superior campaign)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 29, 2012, 10:14:52 PM
I don't know what this is, or half of what is going on, but this must be the result of some really inspiring drugs.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BF3xnumI0Z8


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on September 30, 2012, 11:31:36 AM
^

I mean, I'm sure people who believe that exist, but on what basis?  A few months ago, most of us would have agreed -- Inslee seemed stuck in a rut of 3-7 points behind.  But the race has clearly shifted by every indicator toward Inslee.  Unless these pundits and friends-of-pundits have an argument that goes beyond gut feeling, I'm not sure why I'd pay much attention to it.  Yes, McKenna's poor performance was only the primary, but it's not like there's reason to believe the primary electorate would be unusually hostile to him.  (Although, to be fair, McKenna did do better in the 2008 General than the 2008 Primary by several points...but I think that was more because he ran the superior campaign)
Admittedly, I don't live in Washington state, but if McKenna is a moderate, then there is reason with the rise of the Tea Party movement to think that the primary electorate might have been hostile to him.  I have an argument for McKenna winning.  Even though he did poorly in King County, the race is still within or just outside of the margin of error.  If it's still that close despite McKenna only getting 34% in King County, then that seems pretty encouraging for the GOP.   And I've heard that McKenna performs well in the debates.  If that continues, he may convince enough undecided to support him, and that could make the difference.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on October 01, 2012, 08:54:31 PM
So, just out of curiosity, is it a good thing for Inslee that SurveyUSA is saying he ahead by 6% in the 6th district or is that lower than it should be?

What I mean is, how does that compare to other years like 2008? 

At first I was really excited by this... but now I'm a little nervous considering the 6th includes places like Tacoma, Jefferson County, and Grays Harbor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 02, 2012, 12:34:46 AM
That's okay, its not great. Obama won the 6th by 10 (?) or so. Well, the old 6th, I don't know about the new one.

It would be more interesting to see who leads in the new 10th and 1st districts.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 02, 2012, 12:49:25 AM
^ Obama actually did slightly worse in the new 6th than the new 10th.

The 6th does have two Democratic bastions (Tacoma and Port Townsend) but most of it is swingy to Republican turf. Inslee leading by six there indicates he's probably up by 4 or so statewide, in line with recent public polling.

Unless McKenna can break 40% in King County, nothing else really matters anyways :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 02, 2012, 01:04:43 AM
Actually, Obama won the 6th and the 10th by 16% or 17%.  ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 02, 2012, 01:33:29 AM
The new WA-06 voted +16 Obama in 2008 and +5 Murray in 2010.

So basically it matches statewide polling, which suggests Inslee would win by a margin similar to Murray's in 2010 if the election were held today.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 02, 2012, 01:54:04 AM
It's also worth noting that Inslee won WA-6 by 48.5%-42.3% in the primary, but when you factor in minor candidates, Dem-leaning candidates only came out on top 51.9%-48.1% (+3.9%).  So, at risk of ignoring MoE, Inslee +6% is actually a slight upswing from the primary in the 6th.  Statewide, the Dem primary margin was a little thinner than in the 6th - only 51.1%-48.9% (+2.2%).  Still, assuming this poll accurate and a uniform swing, this suggests a lead of 4-5% for Inslee.  That's a perfectly good poll for him, and about in-line with what we've been seeing lately.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 02, 2012, 11:50:46 AM
SUSA statewide

Inslee 48%
McKenna 42%

http://www.king5.com/news/up-front/polls/KING-5-poll-Inslee-maintains-lead-over-McKenna-172226451.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 02, 2012, 12:09:56 PM
Actually, Obama won the 6th and the 10th by 16% or 17%.  ;)

Thanks! Lol, that's why I included the question mark.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 02, 2012, 12:18:39 PM
The northern part of Kitsap County (including Bainbridge Island, where Inslee lives) was also moved from WA-01 to WA-06. It's not a terribly populated area, but it could possibly be giving Inslee a small boost in the new WA-06.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Cobbler on October 03, 2012, 03:58:52 AM
Anyone watch the debates? McKenna won pretty clearly, I'd say. What are the odds that this will have an impact on polling?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 03, 2012, 09:40:48 AM
McKenna attacked constantly and sounded desperate and snarky. Was not a good performance for him.

Either way, no one watches gubernatorial debates.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on October 03, 2012, 09:58:43 AM
Yeah, no one watches those debates..


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 03, 2012, 11:20:13 AM
I don't know what this is, or half of what is going on, but this must be the result of some really inspiring drugs.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BF3xnumI0Z8

lol what a freak


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 03, 2012, 12:16:53 PM
http://www.king5.com/home/KING-5-poll-Obamas-lead-in-Washington-bigger-than-2008-172410401.html

SurveyUSA

Obama 56%
Romney 36%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Cobbler on October 03, 2012, 01:03:35 PM
McKenna attacked constantly and sounded desperate and snarky. Was not a good performance for him.
I agree, he attacked a lot and came off as too aggressive, but I felt he had much more substance/came off as more knowledgeable about the issues and addressed the questions more than Inslee, who I felt said the same talking points almost every question.

Quote
Either way, no one watches gubernatorial debates.

Yeah I figured, but I wasn't sure. Thanks for clearing it up for me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 03, 2012, 01:47:42 PM
I agree, he attacked a lot and came off as too aggressive, but I felt he had much more substance/came off as more knowledgeable about the issues and addressed the questions more than Inslee, who I felt said the same talking points almost every question.

Seems to be working.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 03, 2012, 03:20:38 PM
Michael Baumgartner endorsed I-502 today: http://www.thenewstribune.com/2012/10/03/2319292/gop-senate-hopeful-latest-to-endorse.html

The Columbian, which IMO is usually pretty right-wing, also endorsed it on Sunday. I know The Olympian and The Seattle Times have as well. The News Tribune did not. Not sure about other papers off the top of my head.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 03, 2012, 04:08:45 PM
Michael Baumgartner endorsed I-502 today: http://www.thenewstribune.com/2012/10/03/2319292/gop-senate-hopeful-latest-to-endorse.html

The Columbian, which IMO is usually pretty right-wing, also endorsed it on Sunday. I know The Olympian and The Seattle Times have as well. The News Tribune did not. Not sure about other papers off the top of my head.

Haha. Someone's desperate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 04, 2012, 12:26:56 PM
wtf Slog


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 04, 2012, 01:13:58 PM
Pretty sure all these posts are made up


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 04, 2012, 01:42:04 PM
Pretty sure all these posts are made up

The last few would seem to confirm that hypothesis.

Fooled the PI! http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2012/10/04/no-hack-just-fact-mckenna-takes-over-the-stranger/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 04, 2012, 04:42:17 PM
I can't find the full topline, but Referendum 74 is at 55% on the latest SUSA (-1%), and pot legalization is unchanged at 57%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 04, 2012, 05:31:34 PM
I figured legalization would have plummeted by now. Maybe it will actually pass!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 04, 2012, 05:34:15 PM
There's still no organized opposition campaign besides the medical marijuana community opposing it from the left (and they're not very organized either). Plus it's been getting good editorials in the newspaper. I'm inclined to think it'll pass as well, unless the feds come in and start raising legal questions to the local media.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 04, 2012, 07:48:33 PM
There's still no organized opposition campaign besides the medical marijuana community opposing it from the left (and they're not very organized either). Plus it's been getting good editorials in the newspaper. I'm inclined to think it'll pass as well, unless the feds come in and start raising legal questions to the local media.

I also think the No on I-502 people who are semi-organized are exactly the sort of people the Yes on I-502 people want for opposition.  The biggest victory for an actually viable counter-argument was the TNT endorsement...and that's pretty much nothing.  It's hard to see it going from 57% to a loss.  I think it may end up with a double-digit win.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on October 04, 2012, 09:17:23 PM
I'm somewhat shocked by this -- the Spokane Spokesman-Review editorialized in favor of both I-502 and R-74.

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2012/oct/02/editorial-regulation-taxation-of-marijuana-worth/ (http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2012/oct/02/editorial-regulation-taxation-of-marijuana-worth/)

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2012/sep/16/editorial-editorial-affirm-r-74-because-state-has/ (http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2012/sep/16/editorial-editorial-affirm-r-74-because-state-has/)

I'm increasingly optimistic both will pass.





Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 05, 2012, 02:11:48 AM
Any particular reason charter schools will finally pass? Or is it just that the pro-side has way more money?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 05, 2012, 02:37:47 AM
Any particular reason charter schools will finally pass? Or is it just that the pro-side has way more money?

That's a big part.  Also, the No side, at least whenever I've seen them, has terrible messaging.  They operate either in pithy soundbites or heinously long presentations that I can never remember anything about.  They haven't managed to expand their campaign beyond their base.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 05, 2012, 08:24:36 PM
Full SUSA results:

Gay marriage (Approve +15)
Approve 55% (-1)
Reject 40% (+2)
Undecided 6% (nc)
"Dumb" extrapolation: 58-42 Approve (+16)

Marijuana legalization (Yes +24)
Yes 57% (nc)
No 33% (-1)
Undecided 10% (+1)
"Dumb" extrapolation: 63-37 Yes (+27)

Eyman's symbolic thing (Yes +30)
Yes 56% (-2)
No 26% (+5)
Undecided 17% (-3)
"Dumb" extrapolation: 68-32 Yes (+37)

Charter schools (Yes +19)
Yes 49% (-3)
No 30% (+4)
Undecided 21% (-1)
"Dumb" extrapolation: 62-38 Yes (+24)

U.S. Senate (Cantwell +13)
Cantwell 53% (-1)
Baumgartner 40% (+2)
Undecided 6% (-1)
"Dumb" extrapolation: 57-43 Cantwell (+14)

Attorney General (D+8)
Ferguson 43% (+1)
Dunn 35% (+2)
Undecided 21% (-3)
"Dumb" extrapolation: 55-45 Ferguson (+10)

No link yet.  I think it's a little weird that Obama is kicking Cantwell's ass.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 06, 2012, 01:19:56 AM
The charter school people learned a lesson from Costco: gather enough money to put something on the ballot enough times and eventually it'll get approved.

Yay direct democracy!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on October 06, 2012, 01:55:09 PM
Full SUSA results:

Marijuana legalization (Yes +24)
Yes 57% (nc)
No 33% (-1)
Undecided 10% (+1)
"Dumb" extrapolation: 63-37 Yes (+27)

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 06, 2012, 03:22:27 PM
Meet Tonasket Mayor Patrick "I Have Friends That Are Disabled" Plumb

http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/10/05/the-mayor-of-tonasket-wa-goes-on-anti-libtard-twitter-rant-threatens-to-eat-big-bird


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 10, 2012, 01:38:43 AM
Lolway may have released another poll last week.  So far, the only possible specifics I've found are R-74 at 57% (up from 51%)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 10, 2012, 01:42:44 AM
The anti-R-74 ads begin airing on Monday. :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 10, 2012, 05:03:03 PM
The anti-R-74 ads begin airing on Monday. :(

The Eastside was carpet bombed with Reject R-74 signs over the weekend. :/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 11, 2012, 10:53:33 AM
Any chance those cop killer commercials will drag down Ferguson? It reminds me of the sleazy ads that allowed McKenna to beat Senn in 2004.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on October 11, 2012, 05:07:39 PM
Are there any more debates left in the governor's race?  I'm beginning to lose hope.  I sure hope you guys don't make it 32 years of Democrat governors!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Cobbler on October 11, 2012, 10:53:34 PM
Are there any more debates left in the governor's race?  I'm beginning to lose hope.  I sure hope you guys don't make it 32 years of Democrat governors!
There's one tonight, but I don't think they'll have much of an impact. I'm hoping McKenna can pull it off, but its definitely looking better for Inslee.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on October 12, 2012, 08:28:13 AM
Are there any more debates left in the governor's race?  I'm beginning to lose hope.  I sure hope you guys don't make it 32 years of Democrat governors!
There's one tonight, but I don't think they'll have much of an impact. I'm hoping McKenna can pull it off, but its definitely looking better for Inslee.
I think it's ridiculous that they would schedule it the same night as the VP debate.  I still think McKenna can do it, though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 12, 2012, 03:58:19 PM
Yikes, the "The real Rob McKenna" ads are awful.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 12, 2012, 04:58:10 PM
Yikes, the "The real Rob McKenna" ads are awful.

Link?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on October 12, 2012, 10:10:34 PM
Yikes, the "The real Rob McKenna" ads are awful.

Agreed, but in the year 2012 "good attack ad" is kind of an oxymoron.  I doubt any of these ads are having an impact.

I mean, honestly, a bunch of old guys with AWM syndrome discussing Jay Inslee's record at a Denny's......


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 12, 2012, 10:22:13 PM
Yikes, the "The real Rob McKenna" ads are awful.

The minimum wage ad is certainly better than McKenna's dumb "Jay Inslee hates firefighters!" ads.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 13, 2012, 12:39:10 PM
"Democrat" Tim Sheldon has endorsed Bill Driscoll in WA-06.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 13, 2012, 01:00:45 PM
"Democrat" Tim Sheldon has endorsed Bill Driscoll in WA-06.

Kilmer is still going to win, right?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 13, 2012, 01:03:13 PM
"Democrat" Tim Sheldon has endorsed Bill Driscoll in WA-06.

Kilmer is still going to win, right?

Probably. You are going to start seeing a lot of Driscoll ads on TV next week. And his direct mail has started.

Side note: Apparently Sheldon supported Obama in 2008? I'm surprised.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on October 13, 2012, 01:59:38 PM
Are there any more debates left in the governor's race?  I'm beginning to lose hope.  I sure hope you guys don't make it 32 years of Democrat governors!

If the WA GOP provides better candidates that don't hate cities and mass transit, and we might just avoid seeing a 36 or 40-year run.  Otherwise, they should prepare to follow their California counterparts into near-irrelevance.  


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 13, 2012, 05:20:35 PM
Yikes, the "The real Rob McKenna" ads are awful.

The minimum wage ad is certainly better than McKenna's dumb "Jay Inslee hates firefighters!" ads.

In my opinion the minimum wage ads seem kinda silly. While McKenna's firefighter ads are even more ridiculous and just wrong, they paint a more frightening picture (I could see people believing them and caring about it).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on October 13, 2012, 07:29:01 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=7KPvmJ514p4


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 14, 2012, 05:26:16 PM
Yes on R-74 has gotten pretty much every major/minor newspaper endorsement...

Another one from Eastern Washington (The Tri-City Herald):

http://www.tri-cityherald.com/2012/10/14/2133827/same-sex-marriage-yes.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 14, 2012, 09:52:27 PM
I think the Tri-Cities Herald actually was neutral on R-71.  Must be changes in the editorial board.

As far as I know, the only Reject editorial so far was a pretty lukewarm one from the Longview Daily News.  I imagine the Centralia Chronicle will probably be anti- too.

None of this is particularly surprising, though.  Proposition 8 didn't really get newspaper endorsements either.

22 days!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 15, 2012, 12:26:16 AM
As far as I know, the only Reject editorial so far was a pretty lukewarm one from the Longview Daily News.

I think it's strange they didn't write for the yes side... I know Longview isn't socially liberal, but it sure is when compared to Wenatchee, Walla Walla, or the Tri-Cities.

Has the Yakima Herald choosen sides yet?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 15, 2012, 12:43:52 AM
The anti-R74 ads are pretty bad...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 15, 2012, 01:51:18 AM
I'm pretty sure the Heraldgave a pretty solid endorsement to R-71 in 2009.  I'd assume they'll be going with Approve again.

Random, but I think I just figured out why Columbia County (or at least Dayton) is relatively moderate on social issues relative to Garfield County/Pomeroy: there's a United Church of Christ in Dayton with a lesbian pastor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Mercenary on October 15, 2012, 03:56:46 AM
I finally got around to updating my absentee ballot address. :o
But I'm starting to think my votes will be on the losing end on every issue. Although I have a hard time voting for any candidates because our idiotic top two primary system means that once the primary is over my ability to vote is gone since the only candidates I would ever consider are third party ones. Still, even if all my votes will be on the losing side, may as well vote anyway I guess, but it seems barely worth the effort.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 15, 2012, 09:47:58 PM
Congressional finance update!

WA-01

DelBene
Total raised: $3,462,000 ($2,300,000 from candidate)
Total spent: $3,135,000
CoH: $486,000

Koster
Total raised: $833,000
Total spent: $595,000
CoH: $238,000

WA-02

Larsen
Total raised: $1,247,000
Total spent: $973,000
CoH: $588,000

Matthews
Total raised: $258,000 ($200,000 from candidate)
Total spent: $213,000
CoH: $45,000

WA-03

Herrera Beutler
Total raised: $1,568,000
Total spent: $1,208,000
CoH: $441,000

Haugen
Total raised: $0
Total spent: $0
CoH: $0

WA-04

Hastings
Total raised: $1,511,000
Total spent: $1,214,000
CoH: $423,000

Baechler
Total raised: $13,000
Total spent: $16,000
CoH: -$3,000

WA-05

McMorris Rodgers
Total raised: $1,791,000
Total spent: $1,494,000
CoH: $797,000

Cowan
Total raised: $305,000
Total spent: $262,000
CoH: $43,000

WA-06

Kilmer
Total raised: $1,545,000
Total spent: $1,156,000
CoH: $387,000

Driscoll
Total raised: $1,574,000 ($1,000,000 from candidate)
Total spent: $894,000
CoH: $681,000

WA-07

McDermott
Total raised: $551,000
Total spent: $508,000
CoH: $61,000

Bemis
Total raised: $6,000
Total spent: $4,000
CoH: $2,000

WA-08

Reichert
Total raised: $1,574,000
Total spent: $1,350,000
CoH: $676,000

Porterfield
Total raised: $117,000 ($87,000 from candidate)
Total spent: $97,000
CoH: $20,000

WA-09

Smith
Total raised: FEC website keeps crashing. IDK.
Total spent:
CoH:

Postma
Total raised: $156,000 ($151,000 from candidate)
Total spent: $102,000
CoH: $50,000

WA-10

Heck
Total raised: $1,835,000 ($100,000 from candidate)
Total spent: $1,564,000
CoH: $354,000

Muri
Total raised: $224,000
Total spent: $214,000
CoH: $32,000


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 15, 2012, 09:51:58 PM
I really don't get why McDermott needs half a million.  lol


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 15, 2012, 09:53:18 PM
The folks in the safe seats raise money to send to the DCCC/NRCC who then send it to competitive districts.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 15, 2012, 10:19:07 PM
I guess that explains Driscoll...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 16, 2012, 12:47:43 AM
I think Driscoll is actually trying, because he can afford to try for no particular reason.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 16, 2012, 08:01:05 PM
Will the cop killer ads defeat Ferguson?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 17, 2012, 01:11:03 AM
New SUSA, conducted 10/15

Inslee 47% (-1)
McKenna 44% (+2)

Obama 54% (-2)
Romney 40% (+4)

Haven't seen results from the other issues, if they were polled


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on October 17, 2012, 07:25:46 AM
WA-03

Herrera Beutler
Total raised: $1,568,000
Total spent: $1,208,000
CoH: $441,000

Haugen
Total raised: $0
Total spent: $0
CoH: $0

::)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 17, 2012, 02:34:14 PM
Rasmussen, 10/13

Obama 55% (+3)
Romney 42% (+1)

Inslee 47% (+1)
McKenna 45% (nc)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 17, 2012, 04:24:58 PM
The folks in the safe seats raise money to send to the DCCC/NRCC who then send it to competitive districts.

Why not send them directly to the candidates themselves? 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 17, 2012, 04:30:10 PM
The folks in the safe seats raise money to send to the DCCC/NRCC who then send it to competitive districts.

Why not send them directly to the candidates themselves? 

They do that too, but they're allowed to give much more money to the DCCC/NRCC than they can to individual candidate committees, so the bulk tends to go there.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 17, 2012, 05:46:14 PM
PPP, October 15-16

Obama: 50%
Romney: 45%

(Side note: ?!?!)

Inslee: 48%
McKenna: 42%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 17, 2012, 05:58:23 PM
yeah, uh...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 17, 2012, 07:52:45 PM
Yeah, Inslee is leading more than Obama, sure.

How in the world did they come up with those numbers?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 17, 2012, 07:58:40 PM
The folks in the safe seats raise money to send to the DCCC/NRCC who then send it to competitive districts.

Why not send them directly to the candidates themselves? 

They do that too, but they're allowed to give much more money to the DCCC/NRCC than they can to individual candidate committees, so the bulk tends to go there.

Oh, ok.  Thanks!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 17, 2012, 10:56:48 PM
lol.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 18, 2012, 03:44:10 AM
University of Washington Poll ("Washington Poll") today

GET EXCITED FOR A UNI POLL


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 18, 2012, 12:24:26 PM
^ They're usually pretty good. :)

Also, if this thread is locked (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=161949.msg3470502#msg3470502), I will cry. This thread is the only thing worth coming to on this forum anymore.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 18, 2012, 03:03:36 PM
^ They're usually pretty good. :)

Also, if this thread is locked (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=161949.msg3470502#msg3470502), I will cry. This thread is the only thing worth coming to on this forum anymore.

Can't we get some sort of exemption?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 18, 2012, 04:03:21 PM
Washington Poll: Pretty much as expected, although weaker numbers for charter schools and pot, and great numbers for Cantwell and gay marriage.  Although it also notes a huge social desirability effect going on for gay marriage, and does an analysis that results in a 6-point margin.

http://www.washingtonpoll.org/results/kcts9_full_wave1.pdf

President
Obama 52%
Romney 41%

Governor
Inslee 48%
McKenna 45%

U.S. Senate
Cantwell 58%
Baumgartner 35%

I-1185 (Eyman)
Yes 54%
No 31%

I-1240 (Charter Schools)
Yes 48%
No 39%

Referendum 74 (Same-sex marriage)
Yes 56%
No 36%

I-502 (Marijuana legalization)
Yes 51%
No 41%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 18, 2012, 04:23:11 PM
Likely voters only:

President
Obama 52%
Romney 43%

Governor
Inslee 47%
McKenna 46%

U.S. Senate
Cantwell 58%
Baumgartner 35%

I-1185 (Eyman)
Yes 54%
No 31%

I-1240 (Charter Schools)
Yes 49%
No 40%

Referendum 74 (Same-sex marriage)
Yes 54%
No 38%

I-502 (Marijuana legalization)
Yes 47%
No 40%

Referendum 74 with some sort of fancy regression analysis to adjust for respondent discomfort and consistency
Approve 53%
Reject 47%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 18, 2012, 05:03:31 PM
Second part of that SurveyUSA poll

Attorney General
Ferguson: 40%
Dunn: 38%

R-74
Approve: 54%
Reject: 41%

I-502
Yes: 55%
No: 36%

I-1240
Yes: 54%
No: 39%

I-1185
Yes: 54%
No: 22%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 18, 2012, 05:49:42 PM
So once again, sleazy October ads will give us some Eastside county councilman douche for AG. Ugh.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on October 18, 2012, 05:55:00 PM
Charter schools might fail...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 18, 2012, 06:58:02 PM
^ They're usually pretty good. :)

Also, if this thread is locked (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=161949.msg3470502#msg3470502), I will cry. This thread is the only thing worth coming to on this forum anymore.

:(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 18, 2012, 08:41:55 PM

Marijuana is in more danger than charter schools from those likely voter numbers. I wouldn't surprise me if they both failed, tbh.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ElectionAtlas on October 19, 2012, 12:22:01 PM
Locked due to number of replies slowing down forum.  Feel free to start new thread.
I've reopened this for now from request.  Please lock after election.
Thanks,
Dave


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 19, 2012, 09:41:59 PM
Locked due to number of replies slowing down forum.  Feel free to start new thread.
I've reopened this for now from request.  Please lock after election.
Thanks,
Dave

Thanks for keeping it open for now.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on October 21, 2012, 11:31:16 AM
It's distressing that a state as heavily Democratic as Washington is at the national level can be so evenly divided between conservatives (of both parties) and liberal Democrats at the state level:

State Senate may be beyond GOP's grasp (http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019477806_senatenew20m.html)

By Keith Ervin
Seattle Times staff reporter


For the Republican Party, control of the state Senate is tantalizingly close.

The GOP just has to pick up three seats, one a gimme, the other two currently held by Democratic incumbents who won less than half the vote in the primary.

(...)

Other observers expect reality will lie somewhere between the optimistic predictions of the two parties' leaders, with the GOP likely achieving a net gain of one seat.

Former state Republican Party Chairman Chris Vance believes a one-seat gain for Republicans would mean a Senate that Democrats couldn't easily control. "Philosophically, the Senate is going to be very conservative. It's going to be very hard for the Democrats to hold on to it."


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 21, 2012, 01:35:00 PM
I think that's more of a fluff piece. I think there's a pretty slim chance of the Senate changing to R control. Also, the Democrats have a decent chance of picking up the Republican held 5th district, on Seattle's Eastside.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on October 21, 2012, 02:11:19 PM
I think that's more of a fluff piece. I think there's a pretty slim chance of the Senate changing to R control. Also, the Democrats have a decent chance of picking up the Republican held 5th district, on Seattle's Eastside.

Does Republicans+conservative Democrats=effective Republican control of the state Senate, as Chris Vance suggests?  


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 21, 2012, 02:15:33 PM
I think that's more of a fluff piece. I think there's a pretty slim chance of the Senate changing to R control. Also, the Democrats have a decent chance of picking up the Republican held 5th district, on Seattle's Eastside.

Does Republicans+conservative Democrats=effective Republican control of the state Senate, as Chris Vance suggests? 

They already have some control through such a coalition, which is how Republicans took over the budget. It would get one seat stronger under such a scenario.

I assume Democrats would maintain Speaker and committee chairmanships, though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 21, 2012, 02:18:26 PM
It's distressing that a state as heavily Democratic as Washington is at the national level can be so evenly divided between conservatives (of both parties) and liberal Democrats at the state level:

Another perversion caused by FPTP single-member districts. Electoral reform is a non-starter outside of San Francisco and Burlington, however, so whatevs.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on October 21, 2012, 04:24:12 PM
The Seattle Times plans an independent expenditure of $75,750 for Rob McKenna and $75,000 to help get a yes vote on R-74.

http://www.nwcn.com/news/politics/174888741.html (http://www.nwcn.com/news/politics/174888741.html)

While it is unlikely this will have a significant effect on the election, it strikes me as unethical and  hackish.  The Blethens are making life hard for their politics and news staff, because now their work is going to be seen as compromised, especially on anything related to these issues.  How is anyone supposed to believe what appears in print there when the paper has such a large financial investment on one side of the fence?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 21, 2012, 07:21:34 PM
I always knew the Seattle times was a really douchy paper, but damn. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 21, 2012, 08:15:44 PM
The Seattle Times plans an independent expenditure of $75,750 for Rob McKenna and $75,000 to help get a yes vote on R-74.

http://www.nwcn.com/news/politics/174888741.html (http://www.nwcn.com/news/politics/174888741.html)

While it is unlikely this will have a significant effect on the election, it strikes me as unethical and  hackish.  The Blethens are making life hard for their politics and news staff, because now their work is going to be seen as compromised, especially on anything related to these issues.  How is anyone supposed to believe what appears in print there when the paper has such a large financial investment on one side of the fence?

I know this may sound dumb/crazy, but why do people see this as so ridiculously different from an endorsement?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on October 21, 2012, 09:31:07 PM
The Seattle Times plans an independent expenditure of $75,750 for Rob McKenna and $75,000 to help get a yes vote on R-74.

http://www.nwcn.com/news/politics/174888741.html (http://www.nwcn.com/news/politics/174888741.html)

While it is unlikely this will have a significant effect on the election, it strikes me as unethical and  hackish.  The Blethens are making life hard for their politics and news staff, because now their work is going to be seen as compromised, especially on anything related to these issues.  How is anyone supposed to believe what appears in print there when the paper has such a large financial investment on one side of the fence?

I know this may sound dumb/crazy, but why do people see this as so ridiculously different from an endorsement?

I would say that there is a big difference between merely endorsing a candidate, which is what many papers do -- and investing a (large) sum of money in a candidate, an action I have never seen by a major newspaper before.  It is impossible to avoid the appearance of a conflict of interest when you have such big financial investment at stake.  It's going to be very hard to look at any story about Inslee or McKenna in the Times (or the failure to cover certain things about them) without wondering if the paper was simply motivated by wanting to make good on its investment.  For an organization which claims to be an independent, third party source of journalism, this is very damaging to its credibility.  If other papers were to follow the Seattle Times down this rabbit hole, then it will give the appearance that the news we read is merely the mouthpiece of political campaigns. 



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 22, 2012, 12:09:15 AM
It's an in-kind, no?  They're just using space that would otherwise be for advertising to promote their endorsement, in essence.  It was free advertisement given on the condition of being endorsed...so it's not like the newspaper is being "bought" here.  I suppose it does then become in their interest to support their candidate of choice on news items, but honestly, I don't mind that as much as most people to; it's potentially better than a false neutrality.  I'm against it, I'm just not quite as outraged as most other people seem to be.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on October 22, 2012, 12:20:41 AM
The cost of the ads they are running is being reported in the WA PDC as an independent expenditure for Rob McKenna, that is what I would consider it to be.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 22, 2012, 12:24:18 AM
Sorry, you're right...I'm not sure why I even asked if it's an in-kind.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 22, 2012, 01:12:57 PM
Strategies360 (R) - WA, 500 LVs, 10/17-20

Obama 52%
Romney 39%

Inslee 46%
McKenna 46%

Initiative 1240 (Charter schools)
Yes 51%
No 34%

Referendum 74 (Same-sex marriage)
Approved 55%
Rejected 38%

Initiative 502 (Marijuana legalization)
Yes 54%
No 38%

No Senate horserace (just favorables), but some very interesting stuff on taxes too

http://www.strategies360.com/client/12-165_OctWACrosstabs.pdf


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 22, 2012, 01:46:19 PM
The marriage equality and marijuana legalization crosstabs are interesting though not intuitively surprising. Both are passing by similar margins but thanks to different coalitions:

- Women support marriage equality by +27% but marijuana legalization by only +11%. Men support marriage equality by only +5% but support marijuana legalization by +22%.

- King County is +44% for marriage equality but +31% for marijuana legalization. "Western Washington" (defined as Pierce, Thurston, Kitsap, Southwest Washington and the Olympic Peninsula) opposes marriage equality by -2% but favors marijuana legalization by +12%.

- Those with a college degree favor marriage equality +31% but marijuana legalization +23%. Those without opposed marriage equality -1% but favor marijuana legalization +11%.

- Non-whites support marriage equality by only +3% but support marijuana legalization by +16% (small sample size, however).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 22, 2012, 02:17:51 PM
Another interesting tidbit on the  "Do you think it should be legal or illegal for gay and lesbian couples to get married?" question.

The "West Wash" region thinks it should be legal 51-42, but the "East Wash" region was higher at 54-43. What? lol.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 22, 2012, 05:49:39 PM
I got my ballot today. Here's what I'm voting so far:

I-1185 (2/3 Req): No
I-1240 (Charter Schools): No
R-74 (Gay Marriage): Undecided
I-502 (Marijauna): No
ESJR-8221 (Debt Limit): No
SJR-8223: No
ESB-6635: Maintained
SHB-2590: Maintained

President: Obama (D)
Senate: Undecided
Congress: Larsen (D)
Governor: Inslee (D)
Lt Gov: Owen (D)
SoS: Wyman (R)
Treasurer: McIntire (D)
Auditor: Undecided
AG: Undecided
CoPL: Goldmark (D)
SoPI: Dorn
IC: Kreidler (D)

Anyone care to persuade me on Auditor or AG?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 22, 2012, 06:43:41 PM
Undecided on R-74?  Come on, man.  I've seen you write on the subject, and I just don't understand how you could vote Reject in good conscience.  It seems like taking out your frustrations with the modern treatment of marriage (which are fair) on the people who would probably be most likely to understand why the institution is important.

Otherwise...I'm curious why you're undecided on Senate, unless I missed that.

I'm voting for Watkins for Auditor.  Kelley's business dealings are just, I'm sad to say, signs of either incompetence or dishonesty.  I probably agree with Watkins on nearly nothing, but he seems like an ethical professional.  AG, I haven't really thought about that much, although Ferguson impresses me more personally than Dunn does.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 22, 2012, 06:48:34 PM
Watkins is a Tea Party loon, Alcon. Imagine Dale Washam on the state level. It would not end well.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 22, 2012, 06:59:12 PM
Realistic, I didn't know you still lived in the second!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 22, 2012, 07:01:25 PM
Watkins is a Tea Party loon, Alcon. Imagine Dale Washam on the state level. It would not end well.

Meh, I've met him and communicated with him quite a few times.  That's not what I pick up, but if I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

What's your take on the NPR Kelley story?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Barnes on October 22, 2012, 07:14:05 PM
I don't really know much about down-ballot offices in Washington, but how are the Republicans able to hold the SoS - or are they in danger of loosing it this year?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 22, 2012, 07:24:36 PM
Realistic, I didn't know you still lived in the second!

Yeah, I'm still in that thin strip of coast left in the second.

Undecided on R-74?  Come on, man.  I've seen you write on the subject, and I just don't understand how you could vote Reject in good conscience.  It seems like taking out your frustrations with the modern treatment of marriage (which are fair) on the people who would probably be most likely to understand why the institution is important.

Otherwise...I'm curious why you're undecided on Senate, unless I missed that.

I'm voting for Watkins for Auditor.  Kelley's business dealings are just, I'm sad to say, signs of either incompetence or dishonesty.  I probably agree with Watkins on nearly nothing, but he seems like an ethical professional.  AG, I haven't really thought about that much, although Ferguson impresses me more personally than Dunn does.

I'll probably vote for R-74; I just haven't quite made the full commitment yet. As for the Senate, I like Cantwell well enough, but I also rather like Baumgartner as a person. He's an involved Catholic, and I'm sympathetic toward his schooling choices. Plus, Cantwell is going to win comfortably anyway, so I don't see much harm in voting for Baumgartner.

I have zero strong feelings about the other two races. I think I voted for Dunn and Kelley in the primary, but I don't have any attachment to them.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 22, 2012, 07:28:10 PM
I don't really know much about down-ballot offices in Washington, but how are the Republicans able to hold the SoS - or are they in danger of loosing it this year?

From my perspective, they've, at least recently, been running moderate/apolitical candidates from liberal areas of western Washington (ie Olympia) who haven't been threats to liberals. Sam Reed, the last SoS, I've met personally and seemed like a great guy. I'm voting for Wyman this time because she seems to be emphasizing modernizing election records much moreso than Drew. The SoS is a pretty-nonpartisan position (or at least it should be), and it seems like the Republicans, as of late, have done a better job in being seen as nonpartisan.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on October 22, 2012, 11:15:32 PM
Anyone care to persuade me on Auditor or AG?

Reagan Dunn strongly supported AG Rob McKenna's decision to join the national lawsuit to overturn the President's Health Care Reform Act.  Bob Ferguson opposed McKenna's decision.

http://www.q13fox.com/news/politics/CRsTake/kcpq-are-the-state-attorney-general-candidates-more-similar-than-different-20120608,0,1691254.story (http://www.q13fox.com/news/politics/CRsTake/kcpq-are-the-state-attorney-general-candidates-more-similar-than-different-20120608,0,1691254.story)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 22, 2012, 11:42:23 PM
Why are you undecided on AG?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Napoleon on October 23, 2012, 12:55:11 AM
Republican AG's are almost always total fascists. That's really the last position I'd want a Republican in.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 23, 2012, 02:17:48 AM
As for the Senate, I like Cantwell well enough, but I also rather like Baumgartner as a person. He's an involved Catholic, and I'm sympathetic toward his schooling choices. Plus, Cantwell is going to win comfortably anyway, so I don't see much harm in voting for Baumgartner.


Cantwell is Catholic as well. Actually, Gregoire and Murray are Catholics too. Cantwell is a great senator in my opinion. She's definitely one of the quiter/under the radar senators out there. Speaking of radars, she's the reason why the Washington Coast has a new weather radar station - a huge help to forecasting. Anyway, it's little things like that, which really make me appreciate the job she's doing.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 23, 2012, 10:19:38 AM
As for the Senate, I like Cantwell well enough, but I also rather like Baumgartner as a person. He's an involved Catholic, and I'm sympathetic toward his schooling choices. Plus, Cantwell is going to win comfortably anyway, so I don't see much harm in voting for Baumgartner.


Cantwell is Catholic as well. Actually, Gregoire and Murray are Catholics too. Cantwell is a great senator in my opinion. She's definitely one of the quiter/under the radar senators out there. Speaking of radars, she's the reason why the Washington Coast has a new weather radar station - a huge help to forecasting. Anyway, it's little things like that, which really make me appreciate the job she's doing.

I like Cantwell plenty, but being a pro-choice Catholic Democrat isn't really a step up from your regular Democrat for me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 23, 2012, 11:25:06 PM
The Yakima-Herald has endorsed Yes on R-74, which I think is the final 'major' newspaper to issue a decision.

http://www.yakima-herald.com/stories/2012/10/22/endorsements-all-couples-deserve-the-right-to-wed-approve-r-74


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 24, 2012, 02:51:19 PM
McKenna leads the latest Elway poll 47-45. First time he has lead a poll since June.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 24, 2012, 02:58:13 PM
McKenna leads the latest Elway poll 47-45. First time he has lead a poll since June.

Do we have any other results from the poll?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 24, 2012, 03:03:42 PM
Ferguson 38%
Dunn 36%

Drew 34%
Wyman 34%

Kelley 34%
Watkins 29%

Owen 42%
Finkbeiner 32%

Charter schools, gay marriage and pot up, but none over 50% (kind of troubling, but it's Elway, and he also doesn't push undecideds)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 24, 2012, 03:53:17 PM
Elway, Ref. 74:

Approved 49% (-2)
Rejected 45% (+8)

Interesting, I guess.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on October 24, 2012, 06:35:11 PM
Yeah, interesting is right.  We'll have to look for another poll to back this up.  My guess is that King 5 isn't done with SurveyUSA.

I know a lot of people on this forum hate this, but just for the record - apparently this poll was D+3 as opposed to D+13 in the last one. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 26, 2012, 01:22:16 AM
http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019526374_truthneedle26m.html

This is just silly.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on October 26, 2012, 01:44:11 AM
http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019526374_truthneedle26m.html

This is just silly.

Susan Kelleher and Linda Shaw were two of the 100+ Seattle Times employees who signed the letter of protest to their executive management.

http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/10/19/a-partly-deciphered-list-of-seattle-times-protest-letter-signers (http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/10/19/a-partly-deciphered-list-of-seattle-times-protest-letter-signers)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 27, 2012, 06:20:03 PM
http://seattletimes.com/html/politics/2019535027_tom5th27m.html

Wonder how long it will be before he switches back to R. If it came down to 25-24, maybe that's when he would do it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 28, 2012, 09:08:49 PM
The only positition I'm undecided on is for Lieutenant Governor.... Anyone want to sway me?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 28, 2012, 11:33:46 PM
The only positition I'm undecided on is for Lieutenant Governor.... Anyone want to sway me?

Our best weapon against the GOP is to keep their bench as weak as possible. Brad Owen is harmless. Who would you rather run against for Governor or Senator (or Congress - Finkbeiner is presumably in the 1st CD, if DelBene wins..) --- more McKennas or more Baumgartners?

I also have a deep distrust of party switchers.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 28, 2012, 11:38:19 PM
Finkbeiner is indeed in the 1st CD.

Look, Owen is awful on choice and the environment and probably marriage equality, but his job doesn't  have anything to do with that. It's to go on international trade missions and not mess around when the Governor leaves the state and preside over the Senate fairly. He does all of those pretty well. And yeah, if Finkbeiner wins Lt. Governor it will not be the last office he runs for.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 28, 2012, 11:40:03 PM
Owen supports gay marriage.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 28, 2012, 11:40:43 PM

Refreshing.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 28, 2012, 11:42:06 PM
Fair enough reasoning, thanks eveyone.

What do you guys think the county map for the pot initiative will look like? Similar to a Dem/Rep split or more funky?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 28, 2012, 11:47:27 PM
I suspect there will be SW Washington counties that marriage equality will fail in but pot legalization will pass in (Grays Harbor, Cowlitz, Wahkiakum and Skamania spring to mind).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 29, 2012, 12:05:22 AM
Here is the medicinal marijuana initiative that passed 59-41 in 1998, for reference:

()

I'd expect at least some of the patterns to be similar. Marijuana probably won't do as well in Eastern Washington this time, but I really don't know what to expect.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ebowed on October 29, 2012, 03:58:18 AM
As I've told bgwah, I couldn't bring myself to vote for Brad Owen (as in 2008), blemishing an otherwise Democratic ballot.

(Besides, he was the only candidate to be listed as 'Democrat party' rather than 'Democratic')


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on October 31, 2012, 01:27:07 AM
Michael Baumgartner has really bottomed out -- even his home city paper endorsed Cantwell.

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2012/oct/25/editorial-cantwell-represents-state-well-in-us/ (http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2012/oct/25/editorial-cantwell-represents-state-well-in-us/)




Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 31, 2012, 07:57:18 PM
The Koster DelBene race was going to be close, but after "the rape thing" comment and his position on abortion, I don't see him winning this district.

http://www.komonews.com/news/local/Koster-says-rape-thing-not-cause-for-abortion-176661851.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 01, 2012, 12:20:07 PM
Final poll from UW has Inslee leading 49-46. Certainly a relief but I'm still very nervous about this race.

http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/11/01/new-washington-poll-inslee-up-narrowly-marriage-equality-just-barely-passing


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 01, 2012, 01:07:56 PM
Wow, marijuana legalization looks like it's going to pass easily (unless the polls are wrong, which is possible).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 01, 2012, 01:13:56 PM
I suspect it will. There's no organized opposition beyond a few medical marijuana activists who claim that the proposal includes too much regulation (and they've raised virtually no money).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 01, 2012, 02:00:37 PM
(Presumably) final SurveyUSA poll shows:

Inslee: 47%
McKenna: 46%

Obama: 54%
Romney: 40%

Marriage equality - Approve: 52%
Marriage equality - Reject: 43%

Marijuana legalization - Yes: 56%
Marijuana legalization - No: 37%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 01, 2012, 02:52:37 PM
Obama up "(57-36 among likely voters); Cantwell clobbering Baumgartner (60-33 among likely voters)"

I really think Cantwell has a shot at getting 60%. The Obama margin is also very surprising... I can't imagine Romney doing that badly...


I believe PPP should be coming out with a WA poll too?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 01, 2012, 03:28:37 PM
+21 Obama seems too high, but I don't really know what to expect. I guess +14 sounds about right.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 01, 2012, 04:15:50 PM
I suspect it will. There's no organized opposition beyond a few medical marijuana activists who claim that the proposal includes too much regulation (and they've raised virtually no money).

I guess the religiouses are focusing all their energy against the marriage amendment. Apparently gays are a bigger threat than drugs these days. Who knew.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on November 02, 2012, 05:00:55 PM
I suspect it will. There's no organized opposition beyond a few medical marijuana activists who claim that the proposal includes too much regulation (and they've raised virtually no money).

I guess the religiouses are focusing all their energy against the marriage amendment. Apparently gays are a bigger threat than drugs these days. Who knew.

Pat Robertson knew!

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/03/pat-robertson-legalize-marijuana-and-treat-it-like-alcohol-/1#.UJRCJGl26gM

There's no solid religious foundation to oppose marijuana, and rather than manufacture one, they're actually doing the right thing here. Bizarre, no?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 02, 2012, 05:27:37 PM
Newest PPP poll has Inslee leading 49-46, Obama leading 54-44


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 02, 2012, 07:35:04 PM
Newest PPP poll has Inslee leading 49-46, Obama leading 54-44

PPP has the same governor numbers as the latest UW poll, with Inslee ahead 49-46.  Survey USA had Inslee only at 47%, but all three polls had McKenna stuck at 46%.  Has he hit his ceiling?  The odds favor Inslee but there certainly remains a substantial chance of a McKenna victory.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 02, 2012, 09:13:46 PM
Where are the PPP numbers at?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 02, 2012, 09:22:30 PM
http://wcvoters.org/files/public-policy-polling-nov-2012


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 02, 2012, 10:31:56 PM
PPP is apparently going to have another Washington poll tomorrow which will presumably include R-74 and Senate numbers.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: politicallefty on November 03, 2012, 03:28:59 AM
(Presumably) final SurveyUSA poll shows:

Inslee: 47%
McKenna: 46%

Obama: 54%
Romney: 40%

Marriage equality - Approve: 52%
Marriage equality - Reject: 43%

Marijuana legalization - Yes: 56%
Marijuana legalization - No: 37%

Wow. For some reason, I'm surprised that marijuana is running pretty far ahead of gay marriage. I think (and certainly hope) that both pass. What is most surprising to me is how strong marijuana legalization is polling, to the point that it looks like a near lock to win.

For those in Washington, do you think the divergence between the two initiatives has to do with Eastern Washington (with it being pro-marijuana and anti-gay marriage)? I would think the marriage equality referendum will get destroyed in the East, while they take a more libertarian view on marijuana. Is that an accurate assumption?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 03, 2012, 03:18:23 PM
PPP:

President (Obama +7?!)
Obama 53%
Romney 46%

Governor (Inslee +2)
Inslee 50%
McKenna 48%

Marijuana legalization (Yes +9)
Yes 53%
No 44%

Same-sex marriage (Approve +10)
Approve 52%
Reject 42%

And we're usually so consistent with Presidential polling in WA.  Bizarre


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 03, 2012, 03:20:16 PM
How likely is it that they say Obama +7 just to drag down their pro-Dem bias?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 03, 2012, 05:05:03 PM
They had Obama +6 in Oregon this morning. Weird.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 03, 2012, 05:57:11 PM
Well, I voted today.  Ended up as a No for charter schools and pretty predictable elsewhere


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on November 03, 2012, 06:17:20 PM
Elway had McKenna leading by 2, and if he wins and it goes to a recount, the Dems will steal it again like they did with Gregoire vs. Rossi in 2004.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 03, 2012, 11:17:09 PM
Elway had McKenna leading by 2, and if he wins and it goes to a recount, the Dems will steal it again like they did with Gregoire vs. Rossi in 2004.

Shut up.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Zioneer on November 03, 2012, 11:33:14 PM
Elway had McKenna leading by 2, and if he wins and it goes to a recount, the Dems will steal it again like they did with Gregoire vs. Rossi in 2004.

Nope, they didn't.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 04, 2012, 02:48:29 AM
(Presumably) final SurveyUSA poll shows:

Inslee: 47%
McKenna: 46%

Obama: 54%
Romney: 40%

Marriage equality - Approve: 52%
Marriage equality - Reject: 43%

Marijuana legalization - Yes: 56%
Marijuana legalization - No: 37%

Wow. For some reason, I'm surprised that marijuana is running pretty far ahead of gay marriage. I think (and certainly hope) that both pass. What is most surprising to me is how strong marijuana legalization is polling, to the point that it looks like a near lock to win.

For those in Washington, do you think the divergence between the two initiatives has to do with Eastern Washington (with it being pro-marijuana and anti-gay marriage)? I would think the marriage equality referendum will get destroyed in the East, while they take a more libertarian view on marijuana. Is that an accurate assumption?

There may be some truth to that.  The recent UW poll had marijuana legalization failing in Eastern Washington by a fairly narrow margin 45/49.  Same sex marriage was losing by a more decisive 43/52.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 04, 2012, 04:08:32 AM
Elway had McKenna leading by 2, and if he wins and it goes to a recount, the Dems will steal it again like they did with Gregoire vs. Rossi in 2004.

How many times to I have to say this?  Even our Secretary of State, who is a Republican, said that the results were completely legitimate.  Idiot. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: politicallefty on November 04, 2012, 04:55:58 AM
(Presumably) final SurveyUSA poll shows:

Inslee: 47%
McKenna: 46%

Obama: 54%
Romney: 40%

Marriage equality - Approve: 52%
Marriage equality - Reject: 43%

Marijuana legalization - Yes: 56%
Marijuana legalization - No: 37%

Wow. For some reason, I'm surprised that marijuana is running pretty far ahead of gay marriage. I think (and certainly hope) that both pass. What is most surprising to me is how strong marijuana legalization is polling, to the point that it looks like a near lock to win.

For those in Washington, do you think the divergence between the two initiatives has to do with Eastern Washington (with it being pro-marijuana and anti-gay marriage)? I would think the marriage equality referendum will get destroyed in the East, while they take a more libertarian view on marijuana. Is that an accurate assumption?

There may be some truth to that.  The recent UW poll had marijuana legalization failing in Eastern Washington by a fairly narrow margin 45/49.  Same sex marriage was losing by a more decisive 43/52.

That's what I thought. I probably really should have said less anti-marijuana, as I doubt either will actually pass in Eastern Washington. I did see the map on medical marijuana, but it seems very unlikely that outright legalization will run that strong. Both initiatives do look strong, especially with both outperforming the President's margin in the PPP poll. I'm almost in a state of disbelief that a state may actually legalize marijuana.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 05, 2012, 01:07:23 PM
ADORABLE CHILDREN have voted!

http://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/mock/Results.aspx

Charter schools 50.8%
Gay marriage 67.5%
Marijuana 49.0%
Obama 69.0%
Inslee 57.4%

Schoolchildren split tickets surprisingly often!  Also, amusing how they didn't let those under Grade 6 vote on pot or gay marriage.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 05, 2012, 01:19:32 PM
My HS appears to have gotten quite a bit more liberal since I was there. It even voted for Inslee! I seem to remember Rossi getting around 80% in 2004.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 05, 2012, 02:28:39 PM
There were only 3 votes from my former highschool, so not much info there, but my middle school voted 96-4 for Obama and 80-20 for R-74. Way to go Washington. lol.

I remember, for the 2008 election, my highschool (Garfield) voted something like 1600-3 in favor of Obama. lol.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 06, 2012, 01:03:06 AM
ADORABLE CHILDREN have voted!

http://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/mock/Results.aspx

Charter schools 50.8%
Gay marriage 67.5%
Marijuana 49.0%
Obama 69.0%
Inslee 57.4%

Schoolchildren split tickets surprisingly often!  Also, amusing how they didn't let those under Grade 6 vote on pot or gay marriage.

That's awesome! Why don't other states do this? Though the fact that your state's schoolchildren oppose the legalization of drugs is troubling news.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on November 06, 2012, 08:11:35 AM
School children are taught not to like marijuana. Not that it ever really sticks...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 07, 2012, 01:16:10 AM
All things considered, this was a great night for Washington Democrats. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 07, 2012, 02:49:44 AM
So, we lost Haugen, but gained Mullet. And Kastama's seat is gone.

So the Senate will be 26-23 for now, and probably 25-24 once Kilmer's seat is filled, correct? I need Meeker's update!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 07, 2012, 03:07:13 AM
Finally was able to get onto the site. Lol. Very good night for Democrats and WA dems as well.

Obama looks like he'll be in the +13-15 range. I'm a bit worried about the senate.... Haugen could still pull it through. Not all the votes have been counted.

Cantwell looks like she'll be heading for 59-60%. Inslee should probably win as well, with 50% of King still out and he's already leading 51-49.

Pot looks like it breezed through, and R-74, should follow a similar path as Inslee, but it should get a bit more than he does.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 07, 2012, 09:30:33 PM
The forum is still incredibly slow, but I'm dissapointed! Come on WA posters, discuss!

There's about to be a big King county ballot dump at 6:30, I imagine that should raise state totals significantly. It appears all of Spokane county has been counted, Obama lost, by about 4%, but Cantwell won it by .2%. Lol at Baumgartner.

Also, the SOS site keeps showing 100% counted for everything, which is incredibly annoying...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 07, 2012, 09:44:03 PM
Oh, it looks like we might pick up the 17th legislative district. Probst (D) is leading Benton (R) by 102 votes. That would mean we break even and stay at 27-22, I guess.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 07, 2012, 09:54:20 PM
A pretty small addition from King County. There, both Obama's and Romney's percentages went down a little at the expense of third parties.

McKenna edged up from 37.0% to 37.3%, but Inslee increased his raw vote margin in King by about 10k.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Thomas D on November 07, 2012, 09:56:01 PM
Oh, are you Washington Democrats going to steal the Governorship AGAIN? You guys are so mean. ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Cobbler on November 07, 2012, 10:53:12 PM
I'm actually really disappointed that Inslee is beating Mckenna. He would've been a great governor and a good model for future moderate Republican candidates in the state. He was the best chance for a Republican in governor's office and now we'll probably go back to nominating loonies. And Inslee doesn't come off as someone who is very intelligent and is kind of just getting by on being a Democrat, which is also upsetting.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 07, 2012, 11:30:07 PM
Yikes, how long is it going to take to count all the ballots? I thought major headway would be made today, instead, I think the total percentage counted went up to 58% from 54%.

How is it that Oregon can go through so much faster?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 07, 2012, 11:36:05 PM
Yikes, how long is it going to take to count all the ballots? I thought major headway would be made today, instead, I think the total percentage counted went up to 58% from 54%.

How is it that Oregon can go through so much faster?

Their ballots have to be received by election day. Ours just have to be postmarked by election day. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 07, 2012, 11:50:25 PM
Yikes, how long is it going to take to count all the ballots? I thought major headway would be made today, instead, I think the total percentage counted went up to 58% from 54%.

How is it that Oregon can go through so much faster?

Their ballots have to be received by election day. Ours just have to be postmarked by election day. :)

That would make the process much faster. I guess I'm just antsy over R74 numbers and Inslee. Besides, I want to see how well Cantwell ends up doing.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on November 08, 2012, 12:30:00 AM
http://socialistalternative.org/news/article22.php?id=1972
Good result.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 08, 2012, 01:22:49 AM
http://socialistalternative.org/news/article22.php?id=1972
Good result.

I could see (with time) a serious third party dynamic begin in Washington:

Urban cores (Seattle, downtown Tacoma): Dems vs Greens/socialists
Middlings (70-80% of districts): Dems versus Republicans
Super conservative/rural areas: Republicans vs tea party offshoots/constitution party

..or maybe I am simply dreaming.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on November 08, 2012, 02:56:48 AM
http://socialistalternative.org/news/article22.php?id=1972
Good result.

I could see (with time) a serious third party dynamic begin in Washington:

Urban cores (Seattle, downtown TacomaRenton): Dems vs Greens/socialists
Middlings (70-80% of districts): Dems versus Republicans
Super conservative/rural areas: Republicans vs tea party offshoots/constitution party

..or maybe I am simply dreaming.
Small fix.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 08, 2012, 09:30:25 PM
It's official -- voters have approved same-sex marriage in Washington.  Let the weddings begin.

http://seattletimes.com/html/politics/2019639905_apusgaymarriage.html (http://seattletimes.com/html/politics/2019639905_apusgaymarriage.html)

The SoS race between Wyman and Drew is incredibly close.  What do people think will happen?  Wyman may be the sole Republican to win statewide office.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 08, 2012, 09:32:59 PM
Wyman will win.

Now that King County is counting ballots faster than it used to, it looks like we'll be returning to later ballots skewing R like they always did before.

Don Benton has a 62 vote lead against Probst now. Oh well...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 08, 2012, 10:54:33 PM
What's up with Whitman County? Why did it have the largest swing to Romney in the state?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 08, 2012, 11:15:25 PM
Pardon my ignorance, but how come the Congressional District map in Washington is so favorable to the GOP? Back in time WA CDs used to be clearly divided by the Cascade Range, with Democrats winning the 7 seats west to it while republicans won the two eastern seats. This time around, it looks like there are two seats which cross this border, and both went republican. Since Washington gained a seat in reapportionment, it seems logical that the East gets more than two seats, and thus a district has to cross the border. But why two instead? And why the GOP seems to be easily ahead in both?

I can't see how the republicans could have passed a gerrymandered map, so... how did democrats agree to this?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 09, 2012, 12:27:57 AM
What's up with Whitman County? Why did it have the largest swing to Romney in the state?

Probably lower turnout among WSU's students.

Pardon my ignorance, but how come the Congressional District map in Washington is so favorable to the GOP? Back in time WA CDs used to be clearly divided by the Cascade Range, with Democrats winning the 7 seats west to it while republicans won the two eastern seats. This time around, it looks like there are two seats which cross this border, and both went republican. Since Washington gained a seat in reapportionment, it seems logical that the East gets more than two seats, and thus a district has to cross the border. But why two instead? And why the GOP seems to be easily ahead in both?

I can't see how the republicans could have passed a gerrymandered map, so... how did democrats agree to this?

Well, bipartisan redistricting tends to give incumbent protection a high priority.

But also, a minority advocacy group lobbied hard for a majority-minority district. The Republicans cleverly realized that if they supported the plan, they could pack a lot of Democrats into it. The Democrats caved. Of course, for our state legislature, when it came to making a truly majority-minority district in Eastern Washington (around 75% non-white, that they could've maybe won by the end of the decade), the Republicans refused and got their way. We talked about it a lot in the redistricting thread. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 09, 2012, 12:30:08 AM
Quote
Democrat Jay Inslee maintained a 50,000-vote lead in the gubernatorial race Thursday night, and despite the long odds against a comeback, Republican Rob McKenna continued to insist he'll close the gap and win as the final votes are tallied.

http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019640707_govrace09m.html

---

Between this and his budget proposals, I guess Rob McKenna is a standard Republican when it comes to arithmetic. ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 09, 2012, 12:35:05 AM
What's up with Whitman County? Why did it have the largest swing to Romney in the state?

Probably lower turnout among WSU's students.

Pardon my ignorance, but how come the Congressional District map in Washington is so favorable to the GOP? Back in time WA CDs used to be clearly divided by the Cascade Range, with Democrats winning the 7 seats west to it while republicans won the two eastern seats. This time around, it looks like there are two seats which cross this border, and both went republican. Since Washington gained a seat in reapportionment, it seems logical that the East gets more than two seats, and thus a district has to cross the border. But why two instead? And why the GOP seems to be easily ahead in both?

I can't see how the republicans could have passed a gerrymandered map, so... how did democrats agree to this?

Well, bipartisan redistricting tends to give incumbent protection a high priority.

But also, a minority advocacy group lobbied hard for a majority-minority district. The Republicans cleverly realized that if they supported the plan, they could pack a lot of Democrats into it. The Democrats caved. Of course, for our state legislature, when it came to making a truly majority-minority district in Eastern Washington (around 75% non-white, that they could've maybe won by the end of the decade), the Republicans refused and got their way. We talked about it a lot in the redistricting thread. :P

That's pretty sad... We Dems can't even draw a decent map when we hold the governorship and the legislature...

And this whole majority-minority thing is killing the Dems throughout the country. We need to realize that's bullsh*t.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 09, 2012, 12:50:20 AM
What's up with Whitman County? Why did it have the largest swing to Romney in the state?

Probably lower turnout among WSU's students.

Pardon my ignorance, but how come the Congressional District map in Washington is so favorable to the GOP? Back in time WA CDs used to be clearly divided by the Cascade Range, with Democrats winning the 7 seats west to it while republicans won the two eastern seats. This time around, it looks like there are two seats which cross this border, and both went republican. Since Washington gained a seat in reapportionment, it seems logical that the East gets more than two seats, and thus a district has to cross the border. But why two instead? And why the GOP seems to be easily ahead in both?

I can't see how the republicans could have passed a gerrymandered map, so... how did democrats agree to this?

Well, bipartisan redistricting tends to give incumbent protection a high priority.

But also, a minority advocacy group lobbied hard for a majority-minority district. The Republicans cleverly realized that if they supported the plan, they could pack a lot of Democrats into it. The Democrats caved. Of course, for our state legislature, when it came to making a truly majority-minority district in Eastern Washington (around 75% non-white, that they could've maybe won by the end of the decade), the Republicans refused and got their way. We talked about it a lot in the redistricting thread. :P

That's pretty sad... We Dems can't even draw a decent map when we hold the governorship and the legislature...

And this whole majority-minority thing is killing the Dems throughout the country. We need to realize that's bullsh*t.

It was a painful process to watch, but I'm mostly over it now. I'm just glad DelBene won.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 09, 2012, 12:55:07 AM
Any chance the legislature changes their mind before 2014?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on November 09, 2012, 01:23:24 AM
No.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 09, 2012, 01:35:53 AM
Any chance the legislature changes their mind before 2014?

Our law mandates bipartisan redistricting that is only done once every ten years.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 09, 2012, 01:40:53 AM
Turnout may be part of it, but there was a uniform swing across the county against Obama that was more pronounced than most areas.  Pullman has only declined from 50% to 46% of Whitman County's turnout -- although that does move the numbers some, considering how polarized the county is.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 09, 2012, 01:51:54 AM
Here are some student-dominated precincts:
Pullman 131: 80 votes in 2008 down to 19 in 2012
Pullman 132: 70 to 14
Pullman 133: 34 to 13
Pullman 134: 156 to 61

Obviously more ballots will be counted, but it seems likely that turnout is greatly down among students. And those first three precincts are pretty much exclusively students. I bet there are lots of precincts where students went from being 1/2 the vote to 1/4, 1/3 to 1/6, etc. The more suburban parts of Pullman are a lot more conservative, and I doubt their turnout decreased as much.

WSU is also the kind of school where people voted for Obama because it was cool to do so in 2008. It's never been a particularly liberal school and is simply returning to its standard voting habits.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 09, 2012, 03:30:42 AM
As has been stated in the thread, Inslee will obviously win (McKenna is in denial). Looks like Wyman will win by 20,000-25,000 votes (about 50.40%). Frustrating to be so close to a clean sweep and not get it but I guess we shouldn't be greedy. :)

I'm very doubtful Probst wins in the 17th, so we picked up the 5th and lost the 10th and the 25th for a Senate balance of 26-23. Not a particularly happy place to be in given that that majority is propped up by Tim Sheldon, Rodney Tom and Jim Hargrove, but I guess it's better than outright Republican control.

State House results were kind of weird IMO. Lost seats in the 17th, 28th, 30th and 35th but then gained the other seat in the 30th along with a seat in the 25th. There's a Republican-held seat in the 47th that's close but the trend doesn't look promising. Net result is 54-45 Dem control which frankly isn't that great...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on November 09, 2012, 01:03:14 PM
Maybe McKenna had coattails?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 09, 2012, 01:30:35 PM
I voted for Wyman for the record. She seemed to be much less political than Drew, and she talked a lot about digitizing records, which being an election data interested person was the primary issue I cared about in the SoS race. The current website is rather poorly designed.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 09, 2012, 02:13:43 PM
Two incumbent Republican legislators were defeated in intra-party contests: State Representative Mike Armstrong of Wenatchee and State Senator Dan Swecker of Rochester.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 09, 2012, 05:26:42 PM
Two incumbent Republican legislators were defeated in intra-party contests: State Representative Mike Armstrong of Wenatchee and State Senator Dan Swecker of Rochester.

Do we know why? Did they lose to more conservative Republicans or did the top 2 system allow Democrats to replace them with someone more moderate?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 09, 2012, 05:33:33 PM
Two incumbent Republican legislators were defeated in intra-party contests: State Representative Mike Armstrong of Wenatchee and State Senator Dan Swecker of Rochester.

Do we know why? Did they lose to more conservative Republicans or did the top 2 system allow Democrats to replace them with someone more moderate?

Not sure. Armstrong had a close races in 2010 as well but he outraised his opponent, wasn't scandal plagued and his district didn't change much this year. Swecker had a lot of new territory added to his district but similarly had no scandal and outraised his opponent.

Perhaps Ds in the district chose to vote for the outsider Republican instead the Republican incumbent they've grown to dislike?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 09, 2012, 06:40:15 PM
About 25% of the vote is outstanding, including a little more in King County, but it's really impossible to see Drew winning at this point.  Her later-wave ballot performances have been pretty mediocre, and 61% is just not enough in King County.  She should lose by about 1-1.5 points.  Charter schools are pretty much a lock at this point too; looking like 1.5-2 points there.

The weirdly strong late-ballot showings for R-74 continue.  The Election Night batch for Pacific County was 46% Approve and today's was 56% Approve.  Otherwise things are pretty static.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 09, 2012, 07:33:17 PM
The second big Whitman batch was more liberal -- a narrow 48.2%-47.6% Romney win for Prez and 53.0% on R-74.  That put the Presidential race a lot closer (50-47) and R-74 is now down by only 9 votes.  It looks to me like late ballots were unusually Pullman-heavy.

R-74 is also now up to 49.3%.  My spreadsheet now estimates that R-74 will only under-perform R-71 by 0.4%, and that figure has been declining pretty steadily as more returns have been released.  There is now an outside chance that R-74 may do better than R-71, if King County returns start getting more friendly.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 09, 2012, 08:07:43 PM
We pulled ahead in the 17th LD Senate and House race today, much to my surprise. Lead in the Senate race is 16 votes; 81 in the House race. Both within the margin of recount.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 09, 2012, 09:14:49 PM
McKenna concedes; Inslee to be governor.

http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019648697_govrace10m.html (http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019648697_govrace10m.html)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 09, 2012, 10:42:53 PM
Looks like Obama is now leading in Clallam.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 10, 2012, 03:54:44 AM
With the latest update, Adams County has joined the short list of Obama-swinging counties.

Neighboring Lincoln now has the most anti-Obama swing in the state, at 11.44%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 10, 2012, 12:05:34 PM
I think it's interesting that Obama lost Wahkiakum, but the county barely swung against him. I guess it's possible he could still win it, Romney leads by 24 votes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 10, 2012, 02:15:59 PM
With the latest update, Adams County has joined the short list of Obama-swinging counties.

Neighboring Lincoln now has the most anti-Obama swing in the state, at 11.44%.

I have a feeling it's only just the beginning of Adams' swings to the Democrats. >:D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 10, 2012, 02:40:21 PM
I want King County precinct results :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 10, 2012, 03:28:08 PM
^Well, they've released their election night abstract: http://your2.kingcounty.gov/elections/2012nov-general/results/ElectionNightFinalAbstract.pdf

I made some quick maps:

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 10, 2012, 03:51:44 PM
So could we actually end up with 27-22 again in 2014? I looked through the seats up. The only obvious targets I noticed would be Kilmer's seat for Republicans and Hill's for Democrats. The Republicans might also try for Hobbs' seat I guess, but if he survived 2010 I'm inclined to think he's favored.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 10, 2012, 04:56:24 PM
Here are some student-dominated precincts:
Pullman 131: 80 votes in 2008 down to 19 in 2012
Pullman 132: 70 to 14
Pullman 133: 34 to 13
Pullman 134: 156 to 61

Obviously more ballots will be counted, but it seems likely that turnout is greatly down among students. And those first three precincts are pretty much exclusively students. I bet there are lots of precincts where students went from being 1/2 the vote to 1/4, 1/3 to 1/6, etc. The more suburban parts of Pullman are a lot more conservative, and I doubt their turnout decreased as much.

WSU is also the kind of school where people voted for Obama because it was cool to do so in 2008. It's never been a particularly liberal school and is simply returning to its standard voting habits.

Don't students vote in their home county? When I was going to UW I never bothered to change my voter registration, I just had my parents forward me my ballot.
Almost everyone I know at the UW seems to have moved there registration from home to the UW. I imagine it's similar at WSU.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 10, 2012, 04:56:56 PM
Here are some student-dominated precincts:
Pullman 131: 80 votes in 2008 down to 19 in 2012
Pullman 132: 70 to 14
Pullman 133: 34 to 13
Pullman 134: 156 to 61

Obviously more ballots will be counted, but it seems likely that turnout is greatly down among students. And those first three precincts are pretty much exclusively students. I bet there are lots of precincts where students went from being 1/2 the vote to 1/4, 1/3 to 1/6, etc. The more suburban parts of Pullman are a lot more conservative, and I doubt their turnout decreased as much.

WSU is also the kind of school where people voted for Obama because it was cool to do so in 2008. It's never been a particularly liberal school and is simply returning to its standard voting habits.

Don't students vote in their home county? When I was going to UW I never bothered to change my voter registration, I just had my parents forward me my ballot.

It varies. If your parents never encouraged you to register to vote or don't even vote themselves then it's entirely possible you would never even register until you get to college.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 10, 2012, 05:21:08 PM
So could we actually end up with 27-22 again in 2014? I looked through the seats up. The only obvious targets I noticed would be Kilmer's seat for Republicans and Hill's for Democrats. The Republicans might also try for Hobbs' seat I guess, but if he survived 2010 I'm inclined to think he's favored.

We will probably lose Kilmer's seat in the 2013 special election if State Rep. Jan Angel runs. She is very popular in the 26th.

The obvious target in 2014 is Hill but they'll also make a go at Joe Fain in the 47th I suspect. Baumgartner could be in danger in the 6th if Chris Marr makes a comback bid.

Pam Roach is also up in 2014 but I feel about her the same way I do about Michele Bachmann - controversial enough to make it close but still tantalizingly out of reach.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 10, 2012, 05:23:13 PM
I think the vast majority register at home and may update their mailing address, but keep their physical address at home.  My bet is that turnout in college precincts is heavily dependent on whether there was a voter registration drive that encouraged people to register with a campus address versus their home address.

Also, college student ballots are being counted disproportionately in these late batches, for whatever reason.  WSU and WWU precincts both have much, much better turnout than the dire numbers in the first batches.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 10, 2012, 05:26:33 PM
So could we actually end up with 27-22 again in 2014? I looked through the seats up. The only obvious targets I noticed would be Kilmer's seat for Republicans and Hill's for Democrats. The Republicans might also try for Hobbs' seat I guess, but if he survived 2010 I'm inclined to think he's favored.

We will probably lose Kilmer's seat in the 2013 special election if State Rep. Jan Angel runs. She is very popular in the 26th.

The obvious target in 2014 is Hill but they'll also make a go at Joe Fain in the 47th I suspect. Baumgartner could be in danger in the 6th if Chris Marr makes a comback bid.

Pam Roach is also up in 2014 but I feel about her the same way I do about Michele Bachmann - controversial enough to make it close but still tantalizingly out of reach.

I thought about mentioning her, but she really does live up to her name and always survives.

I'm sure there's data out there tells us how much more Democratic and Republican each district got after redistricting, but I don't know where it is.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on November 10, 2012, 05:58:43 PM
McKenna concedes; Inslee to be governor.

http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019648697_govrace10m.html (http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019648697_govrace10m.html)
Ugh.  He should have won that race.  Thank you, Tea Partiers, for taking the GOP out of the frying pan and into the fire.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 10, 2012, 06:04:06 PM
Drew has conceded.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 10, 2012, 08:33:51 PM
King County's batch today was pretty Democratic. Cantwell is now over 60% statewide (though she'll fall under if Dave adds write-ins), and Obama's lead is exactly 14%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CT27 on November 10, 2012, 11:32:46 PM
McKenna concedes; Inslee to be governor.

http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019648697_govrace10m.html (http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019648697_govrace10m.html)
Ugh.  He should have won that race.  Thank you, Tea Partiers, for taking the GOP out of the frying pan and into the fire.


How are the Tea Party specifically to blame for McKenna losing?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 11, 2012, 03:07:58 AM
Does anyone know what % Obama has in Seattle right now?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 11, 2012, 03:22:30 AM
Best we have is LD results from Election Night, so not really


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 11, 2012, 04:40:25 AM
I'm guessing Seattle voted 82% Obama. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on November 11, 2012, 08:05:10 AM
McKenna concedes; Inslee to be governor.

http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019648697_govrace10m.html (http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019648697_govrace10m.html)
Ugh.  He should have won that race.  Thank you, Tea Partiers, for taking the GOP out of the frying pan and into the fire.
They made the GOP look like right-wing extremists (even more than they already appear) and hurt his chances at making inroads in King County.

How are the Tea Party specifically to blame for McKenna losing?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 11, 2012, 02:13:09 PM
^^ That analysis ignores the fact that McKenna agrees with the national brand and the Tea Party on Obamacare, marriage equality, taxes, and most other issues except perhaps choice (and even there he is by no means pro-choice; he's just not rabidly pro-life).

McKenna ran on standard Republican proposals that Washington voters have consistently rejected. They did so once again. The only reason this was close was 1) McKenna has a good resume and was well-known statewide and 2) his campaign was mildly successful in branding him as moderate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: cwt on November 11, 2012, 06:53:59 PM
I wonder if McKenna could have won if he had come out in favor of I-502 and promised to do everything possible as governor to support it if it passed.
 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 12, 2012, 02:25:37 AM
I wonder if McKenna could have won if he had come out in favor of I-502 and promised to do everything possible as governor to support it if it passed.
 

Welcome to the forum!  :D 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CatoMinor on November 12, 2012, 02:27:22 AM
How many more ballots left to count?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 12, 2012, 02:28:05 AM
How many more ballots left to count?

~270k


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 12, 2012, 09:23:51 PM
R-74 is now beating R-71.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CatoMinor on November 12, 2012, 10:21:08 PM
With this law passed are all the current people in WA prisons for cannabis related crime set to be released the day the law takes effect?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 12, 2012, 10:34:24 PM
With this law passed are all the current people in WA prisons for cannabis related crime set to be released the day the law takes effect?

No, although King and Pierce counties (Seattle and Tacoma) are dismissing pending prosecutions.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on November 13, 2012, 01:11:45 AM
I know this has already been mentioned, but I can't get over the current standing of the 17th Legislative District race...

Probst ahead by 16 votes......



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 13, 2012, 01:16:38 AM
I know this has already been mentioned, but I can't get over the current standing of the 17th Legislative District race...

Probst ahead by 16 votes......


Yeah... That's going to a recount for sure. How's the House race, position 1 doing?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 13, 2012, 01:19:09 AM
Two disturbing State Senate stories today:

- Rep. Jan Angel will indeed run in the 26th LD special election next fall for Kilmer's old seat. Our odds of holding the seat have now dropped considerably.

- More immediately worrying, Tim Sheldon and Rodney Tom have announced that if they hold the balance of power in the Senate (which they will if Don Benton is re-elected down in the 17th) they will force some sort of bizarre bipartisan Senate arrangement wherein both parties would control committee chairmanships and floor authority: http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/2012/11/12/tim-sheldon-rodney-tom-hope-to-force-power-sharing-arrangement-in-senate/

In short, losing the 17th LD race will mean Democrats have lost control of the State Senate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 13, 2012, 01:44:25 AM
Your second point is not good... not good at all. Is it possible to primary either Sheldon or Tom in the future?

At least Hargrove and Hatfield respect the Dem leadership....

Also, wasn't there another Hargrove somewhere that was elected to the Senate? Or was that to the House?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 13, 2012, 01:54:21 AM
Mark Hargrove is a Republican elected to the State House in 2010 from the 47th LD (he looks to have survived his challenge this year 50.31% to 49.69%).

There's been at least one attempt to challenge Sheldon in the past but it wasn't very successful (he's been in office for eons and is well-liked in his district). Tom likely will get a challenger (labor is probably already looking for someone). Hopefully he doesn't get a dime in financial assistance from the Senate Democratic caucus in his re-election bid.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 13, 2012, 02:10:58 AM
So basically we have a 50% chance of holding the Senate now, and a 0% chance as of November 2013 when Angel gets Kilmer's seat.

I've never trusted Tom. He was always a slimy opportunist and nothing more.

I got in an argument right before the election about Haugen. Some fellow liberals claimed she was a bad transportation committee chairwoman, and since Democrats will surely maintain control of the Senate, they hoped Bailey would beat her and we would get a new (Democratic) chair. I argued that it was a foolish assumption that we would maintain control of the Senate, especially given Kilmer's likely election to Congress. They just didn't get it. They are idealists with little understanding of politics.

Who could run against Tom? Would Hunter dare challenge him?

This makes defeating Hill even more important. I'm not sure who a top tier candidate against him would be. Springer, maybe?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 13, 2012, 08:26:50 PM
Uh oh!

Benton (R) 26,534
Probst (D) 26,469

Although:

Stonier (D) 26,404
Olson (R) 26,365


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 13, 2012, 09:07:52 PM
Uh oh indeed :(

In brighter news, Ed Murray just got elected leader of the Senate Democratic caucus. He's not the first LGBT caucus leader in a state legislature (the Speaker of the California Assembly is gay) but he is the first in Washington and the first to lead an upper chamber.

This is also a pretty clear indication he isn't going to be running for Mayor of Seattle.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 13, 2012, 10:42:05 PM
Clark County has an estimated 5,200 ballots left. If the current proportions stayed the same, that would mean approximately 1,500 left in the 17th district.

I like Ed Murray. If he does become Senate majority leader, then the 43rd district will lead both chambers. ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 13, 2012, 11:24:33 PM
Franklin County updated today, and is now the second county (the other being Adams) to have swung to Obama. This might be a pretty good guess as to why. (http://ofm.wa.gov/pop/race/minoritygraphics/hispanic10.pdf)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on November 13, 2012, 11:51:15 PM
Franklin County updated today, and is now the second county (the other being Adams) to have swung to Obama. This might be a pretty good guess as to why. (http://ofm.wa.gov/pop/race/minoritygraphics/hispanic10.pdf)
Seems like only Adams swung(31 to 32), but franklin went from 38% Obama to 37%. I'm using
http://vote.wa.gov/results/current/President-Vice-President_ByCounty.html and
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/election/uscounties.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 14, 2012, 12:05:07 AM
Why are you using the Washington Post for 2008 numbers? You do realize you're on an elections results website, right?

here's what I have:
2008: 60.81-37.19 McCain (+23.62 R)
2012: 60.52-37.27 Romney (+23.25 R)

That's a 0.37% swing to Obama. Once Dave adds write-ins, both Romney and Obama will see their percentages decline a little bit, but that shouldn't change the margin much (which is what is used to determine swing).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 14, 2012, 03:24:53 AM
I've tabulated the current results of WA-3, and so far Romney is winning it by a little less than 4,000 votes.  He's also winning WA-3's slice of Thurston county by a mere 3 votes. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on November 14, 2012, 03:32:11 AM
Why are you using the Washington Post for 2008 numbers? You do realize you're on an elections results website, right?

here's what I have:
2008: 60.81-37.19 McCain (+23.62 R)
2012: 60.52-37.27 Romney (+23.25 R)

That's a 0.37% swing to Obama. Once Dave adds write-ins, both Romney and Obama will see their percentages decline a little bit, but that shouldn't change the margin much (which is what is used to determine swing).
Well usually atlas shows up when you search for something specific on google...
It looks like Adams swing was larger anyway though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 14, 2012, 02:20:23 PM
Why are you using the Washington Post for 2008 numbers? You do realize you're on an elections results website, right?

here's what I have:
2008: 60.81-37.19 McCain (+23.62 R)
2012: 60.52-37.27 Romney (+23.25 R)

That's a 0.37% swing to Obama. Once Dave adds write-ins, both Romney and Obama will see their percentages decline a little bit, but that shouldn't change the margin much (which is what is used to determine swing).
Well usually atlas shows up when you search for something specific on google...

All you have to do is click the "election results" tab at the top of this website.

Quote
It looks like Adams swing was larger anyway though.

I never suggested otherwise.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 14, 2012, 05:25:52 PM
I'm suprised how little the ancestoral Dem. parts of the coast swung to Romney. He barely did better than McCain on the coast (and for that matter in Mason, Kitsap, and Pierce as well).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 14, 2012, 07:30:47 PM
So, when will the precinct results come out for King County?  When the election is finalized?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 14, 2012, 07:32:59 PM
Skagit just flipped to Approve on R-74.  I expect Whitman will be joining them tomorrow.

So, when will the precinct results come out for King County?  When the election is finalized?

December 4th, says their web site.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 14, 2012, 07:33:59 PM
Skagit just flipped to Approve on R-74.  I expect Whitman will be joining them tomorrow.

So, when will the precinct results come out for King County?  When the election is finalized?

December 4th, says their web site.

I didn't see that.  :'(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 14, 2012, 07:44:49 PM
Benton ahead by 110 votes. Looks to be nearly over to me.

Stonier ahead by 43 votes in the House race.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 14, 2012, 10:18:48 PM
Benton ahead by 110 votes. Looks to be nearly over to me.

Stonier ahead by 43 votes in the House race.

Probst would need to win almost 58% of the remaining ballots to take the lead. Nearly over indeed. :(

At least Murray seems to be handling Sheldon and Tom fairly well.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CatoMinor on November 15, 2012, 06:05:48 PM
Has Washington ever had a cannabis legalization initiative make to the ballot before? If it has I am having hard time finding it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 15, 2012, 06:36:45 PM
Tom and Republican Leader Mike Hewitt are openly talking about installing Tom as Majority Leader of a coalition made up of Republicans, Sheldon and Tom. (http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2012/11/15/rodney-tom-as-senate-majority-leader/)

On the plus side, I see no way this twit gets re-elected.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 15, 2012, 07:23:44 PM
Has Washington ever had a cannabis legalization initiative make to the ballot before? If it has I am having hard time finding it.

No, it was our first vote on legalization. The closest thing would be the medicinal marijuana intitiative in 1998.

Tom and Republican Leader Mike Hewitt are openly talking about installing Tom as Majority Leader of a coalition made up of Republicans, Sheldon and Tom. (http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2012/11/15/rodney-tom-as-senate-majority-leader/)

On the plus side, I see no way this twit gets re-elected.

I wonder if he'll switch parties again. I think that district may have actually gotten more Democrartic after redistricting. Maybe he'll run against DelBene in 2014. Hah :p


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Krzysztof Lesiak on November 15, 2012, 07:39:51 PM
So I think 3 states use this dumb nonpartisan blanket primary, CA, LA, and WA.

I'm glad that AZ soundly defeated it and maybe (hopefully) CA and WA will eliminate this dumb system as soon as possible.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 15, 2012, 07:42:53 PM
Today Benton leads by 95 votes; Stonier by 75. Maybe a couple hundred ballots left countywide. 1600 ballots left countywide.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on November 15, 2012, 08:11:51 PM
So I think 3 states use this dumb nonpartisan blanket primary, CA, LA, and WA.

I'm glad that AZ soundly defeated it and maybe (hopefully) CA and WA will eliminate this dumb system as soon as possible.

Calling something "dumb" twice doesn't necessarily make it true. It's not dumb, just non-traditional -- the two are not the same thing. Some of us in California liked having an interesting general election race instead of a 70%D/30%R slaughter.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 15, 2012, 08:21:42 PM
Whitman flipped to Approve on R-74.

Here are the top Approving municipalities so far in counties reporting precinct results:

1. Langley - 79.6%
2. Bainbridge Island - 79.2%
3. Port Townsend - 77.5%
4. Bellingham - 70.3%
5. Olympia - 70.0%
6. Index - 69.7%
7. La Conner - 69.5%
8. Pullman - 66.0%
9. Ruston - 64.0%
10. Winthrop - 63.5%
11. White Salmon - 62.8%
12. Mountlake Terrace - 61.2%
13. Edmonds - 60.4%
14. Bucoda - 60.0%
15. Leavenworth - 59.7%
16. Coupeville - 59.2%
17. Bingen - 58.7%
18. Tacoma - 58.4%
19. Brier - 58.0%
20. Tumwater - 57.7%
...
25. Everett - 55.2%
26. Bremerton - 55.1%
...
39. Spokane - 51.6%
...
75. Walla Walla - 46.2%
...
89. Wenatchee - 43.1%
...
97. Richland - 41.0%
...
101. Spokane Valley - 40.0%
...
119. Kennewick - 35.9%
...
139. Latah - 29.3%
140. Lind - 28.6%
141. Spangle - 28.4%
142. Brewster - 28.0%
143. Mossyrock - 27.8%
144. Fairfield - 27.5%
145. Nooksack - 27.1%
146. Washtucna - 23.6%
147. Lynden - 20.7%
148. Hatton - 15.8%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 16, 2012, 02:51:38 AM
Fun fact: Democrats held a 51-48 majority in the State House after the 1962 elections. Republicans sided with seven DINOs to install a DINO as Speaker.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on November 16, 2012, 03:51:42 AM
Fun fact: Democrats held a 51-48 majority in the State House after the 1962 elections. Republicans sided with seven DINOs to install a DINO as Speaker.

So many DINO's at that time??? It seems to me, that now it's easier to find RINO then DINO in the state (Tim Sheldon excluded))))


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CatoMinor on November 16, 2012, 04:19:34 AM
So I think 3 states use this dumb nonpartisan blanket primary, CA, LA, and WA.

I'm glad that AZ soundly defeated it and maybe (hopefully) CA and WA will eliminate this dumb system as soon as possible.

Calling something "dumb" twice doesn't necessarily make it true. It's not dumb, just non-traditional -- the two are not the same thing. Some of us in California liked having an interesting general election race instead of a 70%D/30%R slaughter.
Yes. Yes it is a terrible voting system.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on November 16, 2012, 04:24:45 AM
So I think 3 states use this dumb nonpartisan blanket primary, CA, LA, and WA.

I'm glad that AZ soundly defeated it and maybe (hopefully) CA and WA will eliminate this dumb system as soon as possible.

On the contrary - i hope this system being gradually implemented everywhere. I am fed up with the system, where a small number "ideologically pure" primary activists frequently nominates crazies and then normal people get the only choice: who of these 2 is "relatively more normal"


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 16, 2012, 04:32:58 AM
The ability to have competitive intra-party elections in certain districts is a fun aspect of top-two, but eventually there will be a D vs. D or an R vs. R race for a major office like Governor or Senator. The public will be aghast, opinion will quickly turn against the system, and it'll be abandoned soon afterwards. This could take decades, but eventually it will happen.

Also, as I've written in past posts here, a top-two system significantly decreases public input into who will be major party candidates in competitive races. There is an invisible primary that occurs behind the scenes between major donors and party political leaders to make sure that the scenario I described above doesn't happen (more so than there is in other states). Jay Inslee didn't run unopposed for Governor on the Democratic side this year because everyone just liked him so much. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on November 16, 2012, 05:06:49 AM
The ability to have competitive intra-party elections in certain districts is a fun aspect of top-two, but eventually there will be a D vs. D or an R vs. R race for a major office like Governor or Senator. The public will be aghast, opinion will quickly turn against the system, and it'll be abandoned soon afterwards. This could take decades, but eventually it will happen.

Also, as I've written in past posts here, a top-two system significantly decreases public input into who will be major party candidates in competitive races. There is an invisible primary that occurs behind the scenes between major donors and party political leaders to make sure that the scenario I described above doesn't happen (more so than there is in other states). Jay Inslee didn't run unopposed for Governor on the Democratic side this year because everyone just liked him so much. :)

In such case it will be a liberal Democrat vs. moderate Democrat or conservative Republican vs. moderate Republican race and i don't see anything terrible in such situation. IMHO - the situation i described above, where a far-right and far-left activists essentially anoint candidates of corresponding parties and (BIG!) center elects "lesser of 2 evils" is much worse.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Sbane on November 16, 2012, 12:38:41 PM
The top two has it's good and bad sides. National Democrats lost out on a congressional seat when two Republicans qualified to be on the November ballot. It is a swing seat, to be fair, but considering the Republican slaughter in the state this year, that seat would have likely gone to the Democrats. On the other hand, maybe we can get an independent who will deal only with the budget and ignore social issues on the ballot for governor. Doesn't matter if their opponent is Democrat or Republican, I would vote for an independent of that mold.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on November 17, 2012, 01:57:04 PM
The top two has it's good and bad sides. National Democrats lost out on a congressional seat when two Republicans qualified to be on the November ballot. It is a swing seat, to be fair, but considering the Republican slaughter in the state this year, that seat would have likely gone to the Democrats. On the other hand, maybe we can get an independent who will deal only with the budget and ignore social issues on the ballot for governor. Doesn't matter if their opponent is Democrat or Republican, I would vote for an independent of that mold.

Me too)))


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 17, 2012, 04:21:26 PM
This coalition Senate majority is looking more and more like a done deal. Hewitt announced yesterday that he's declining to run for Senate Republican leader. In his statement he praised the type of arrangement that would lead to Tom becoming Majority Leader: http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/2012/11/16/mike-hewitt-wont-lead-senate-republicans/

Hewitt also gave a quote where he says Tom considered becoming Ways and Means Chair or Majority Leader and decided he'd prefer Majority Leader: http://www.thenewstribune.com/2012/11/17/2370692/hewitt-wont-lead-gops-senators.html

Meanwhile, Benton leads by 96 votes after Friday's count with 2300 ballots remaining countywide. Stonier leads by 100 in the House race.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on November 18, 2012, 01:06:56 AM
This coalition Senate majority is looking more and more like a done deal. Hewitt announced yesterday that he's declining to run for Senate Republican leader. In his statement he praised the type of arrangement that would lead to Tom becoming Majority Leader: http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/2012/11/16/mike-hewitt-wont-lead-senate-republicans/

Hewitt also gave a quote where he says Tom considered becoming Ways and Means Chair or Majority Leader and decided he'd prefer Majority Leader: http://www.thenewstribune.com/2012/11/17/2370692/hewitt-wont-lead-gops-senators.html

Meanwhile, Benton leads by 96 votes after Friday's count with 2300 ballots remaining countywide. Stonier leads by 100 in the House race.

Well, that happened in Tennessee few years ago, when Democrats found a Republican ready to buck his party on some issues and made him speaker. In California in Willie Brown time. Why not vice versa??? It's politics after all - personal interests will always trump "party interests", and that's normal)))


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 18, 2012, 06:15:50 PM
Hohoho....
Over a thousand uncounted ballots have been found in Clark County... Could Probst pull it off?
http://www.komonews.com/news/local/Clark-County-finds-more-than-1000-uncounted-votes-179816921.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 18, 2012, 08:01:04 PM
It's unlikely, but if it does happen, I can only imagine the kvetching (which will probably conveniently ignore that Clark County's Auditor, Greg Kimsey, is a Republican.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 18, 2012, 08:10:22 PM
I guess this gives Probst a better shot since there are now more ballots that could allow him to make up the difference, but there's nothing about these ballots specifically that seems like they should help him.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 19, 2012, 01:37:30 AM
By my calculation, this would mean there are about 711 ballots left in the 17th, and Probst would need to win them 406-305 (57-43) to take a one vote lead.

It's unlikely, but if it does happen, I can only imagine the kvetching (which will probably conveniently ignore that Clark County's Auditor, Greg Kimsey, is a Republican.)

Maybe he's trying to steal the house race... :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 19, 2012, 05:39:19 PM
R-74 Pierce County

() (http://i.imgur.com/1sLOi.png)

Blow-up of the Tacoma area

() (http://i.imgur.com/vvvXV.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on November 19, 2012, 05:43:32 PM
What's that red bit in Tacoma near all the dark green ones?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 19, 2012, 05:54:51 PM
Awesome maps! I wish I had the skills to make those...

It looks like the Kitsap portion of Pierce voted yes on R74, which surprises me...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 19, 2012, 06:01:54 PM
I'm pretty surprised University Place voted in favor. I figured the Mormon presence would kill it there.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 19, 2012, 06:28:11 PM
Extra ballots in Clark look to have been of no help; Probst behind by 105 after today's count. Stonier leads by 120. 1350 ballots left countywide.

Both of these races will go to hand recounts it looks like... still don't expect the final result to be affected.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 19, 2012, 07:02:59 PM
What's that red bit in Tacoma near all the dark green ones?

There's sort of a neighborhood line that runs North-South there (Orchard Street) -- on one side is the North End, which was about 70% Approve, and on the other, the West End, which was in the low-mid 50's.  That's a West End precinct that just happened to slip a few votes under 50%.  Older, more working-class, less-educated whites.

Awesome maps! I wish I had the skills to make those...

It looks like the Kitsap portion of Pierce voted yes on R74, which surprises me...

The Kitsap portion of Pierce is actually fairly affluent and educated, and tends to be socially moderate (although there's also some folks in trailers up there.)  Demographically, it's a lot more like the coastal parts of Southeast Kitsap which, once I get a Kitsap shapefile, you'll see were relatively pro-gay versus the interior.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 19, 2012, 07:06:14 PM
Charter schools
() (http://i.imgur.com/4eson.png)

Governor - Inslee vs. McKenna
() (http://i.imgur.com/ZAeyG.png)

Secretary of State - Drew vs. Wyman
() (http://i.imgur.com/TYuW9.png)

Sorry for the colors, but they were made for "real-life" people.  Awful I know.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 19, 2012, 07:44:18 PM
Here's something kind of fun to ponder (numbers as of 4:30 PM on 11/19):

Total votes cast for President: 3,055,114 (98.5% of ballots)
Total votes cast for I-502: 3,026,689 (97.6% of ballots)
Total votes cast for R-74: 3,022,577 (97.5% of ballots)
Total votes cast for Governor: 3,003,292 (96.9% of ballots)
Total votes cast for Senator: 3,001,184 (96.8% of ballots)
Total votes cast for I-1240: 2,943,535 (94.9% of ballots)
Total votes cast for I-1185: 2,897,011 (93.4% of ballots)
Total votes cast for Supreme Court, Pos. 9: 2,400,748 (77.4% of ballots)

Total ballots returned: 3,100,831


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Sbane on November 19, 2012, 08:16:14 PM
I-502 precinct map please! (though I have a feeling it could be boring)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 19, 2012, 08:24:07 PM
I-502 (not totally boring, but a lot more homogeneous)

() (http://i.imgur.com/dEKBC.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Sbane on November 19, 2012, 08:37:43 PM
Like I expected, widespread support. Thanks!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on November 19, 2012, 09:28:58 PM
Why are the colors messed up for Governor and Sec of State?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 19, 2012, 09:37:06 PM
Cantwell is now winning Yakima County!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 19, 2012, 09:45:39 PM
Why are the colors messed up for Governor and Sec of State?

Sorry for the colors, but they were made for "real-life" people.  Awful I know.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 19, 2012, 11:41:55 PM
I'm amazed that Cantwell can get 60+% of the vote and still lose Whitman/Spokane. Winning Yakima county is surprising, and makes for a cool looking map. Kittitas is also really close, but I don't think there are enough votes for her to win it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 19, 2012, 11:46:40 PM
She would have won Spokane if the nominee wasn't Baumgartner (though if the nominee wasn't Baumgartner she may not have gotten 60% I suppose...)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 20, 2012, 12:17:35 AM
I am glad to see that Sanders lost! I forgot about that race..


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 20, 2012, 12:29:05 AM
Any thoughts on why that race wasn't close?  The map is super-partisan, even if some of the Eastern Washington GOP counties (Okanogan especially) were quite close.  I'm surprised that Sanders went down so hard, and it was really polarized too for how low-profile the race was.

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 20, 2012, 02:01:02 AM
When the only guidance for low information Democratic voters is gender...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 20, 2012, 01:58:54 PM
Here's a photo album of Jaime Herrera Beutler and two pugs: http://photo.kochfoto.com/Portraits/CBLPI/Jaime-Herrera-Beutler-2011/17562319_3T5tWK#!i=1337290823&k=RgwmnJr


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 20, 2012, 08:54:28 PM
Turnout hit 80% today.

Benton (R) +104
Stonier (D) +100

***

Current results:

Same-sex marriage (Approved +7.10%)
Approved 53.55%
Rejected 46.45%

Charter schools (Yes +1.40%)
Yes 50.70%
No 49.30%

Marijuana legalization (Yes +11.26%)
Yes 55.63%
No 44.37%

President (Obama +14.62%)
Obama 56.05%
Romney 41.43%

U.S. Senate (Cantwell +20.70%)
Cantwell 60.35%
Baumgartner 39.65%



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 20, 2012, 09:45:53 PM
Inslee is at 51.45% and the only counties with more than 1000 ballots outstanding are King, Snohomish, Thurston and Whatcom (all counties he won). Could he get above 51.5 and thus with rounding 52-48? :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on November 20, 2012, 11:16:57 PM
Can anybody make by-precint maps of gay marriage/marijuana legalization of Eastern Washington county with a large Hispanic population?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 20, 2012, 11:27:44 PM
Inslee is at 51.45% and the only counties with more than 1000 ballots outstanding are King, Snohomish, Thurston and Whatcom (all counties he won). Could he get above 51.5 and thus with rounding 52-48? :)

Inslee would need to win the remaining ballots by a margin of 58-42. Based on what's left, I'm guessing he'll win the remaining ballots with 55 or 56%. So it probably won't happen, but who knows how accurate the ballots remaining numbers are.

At least Obama rounds to +15 now. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 20, 2012, 11:47:44 PM
Can anybody make by-precint maps of gay marriage/marijuana legalization of Eastern Washington county with a large Hispanic population?

Neither Franklin nor Yakima have precinct results out yet

The only heavily Hispanic town with results posted is Mattawa (63% Reject on R-74, don't have pot returns yet)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 21, 2012, 12:45:56 AM
Here's a photo album of Jaime Herrera Beutler and two pugs: http://photo.kochfoto.com/Portraits/CBLPI/Jaime-Herrera-Beutler-2011/17562319_3T5tWK#!i=1337290823&k=RgwmnJr

Ugh... she needs more than just token opposition. I still can't  believe that she's actually a representative.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 21, 2012, 06:51:11 AM
Results for Evergreen State College (plus a neighboring, student-heavy apartment complex):

Obama 225
Stein 26
Romney 13
Johnson 5
Anderson 3

lawl.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 21, 2012, 08:54:47 PM
Inslee's up to 51.52% - fingers crossed!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 21, 2012, 10:48:56 PM
http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019735661_politicsnw22m.html

"Up Front with Robert Mak" has been cancelled :o


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 22, 2012, 02:52:53 AM
https://www.facebook.com/SaveUpFrontWithRobertMakOnKing5


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 22, 2012, 03:35:40 AM
Very dissapointing that Up Front will be cancelled. Oh well.

I wonder if there are any precincts in Seattle where Stein outperformed Romney?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 22, 2012, 09:10:19 PM
While I'm in a food coma: Kitsap County, R-74, non-final results

()

That big 90% No precinct only has 2 votes, and the tiny precinct within it only has a mobile home park


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 23, 2012, 03:15:08 AM
Wonderful! Bremerton suburbs = :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 23, 2012, 02:24:57 PM
R-74, Spokane County

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 23, 2012, 02:45:12 PM
R-74, Whatcom County.  As always, the contrast between Dutch Calvinist Land and Bellingham makes for fun times.

() (http://i.imgur.com/GYOoX.png)

Newhalem, the small company town for Seattle City Light off the map up in the mountains, voted 20-13 Approved.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on November 23, 2012, 02:48:17 PM
Results for Evergreen State College (plus a neighboring, student-heavy precinct):

Obama 225
Stein 26
Romney 13
Johnson 5
Anderson 3

lawl.

If Portland had smaller precincts, Reed's precinct would be even worse for Romney (10 at the most).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 23, 2012, 03:16:35 PM
It'll be interesting to see other college precincts.  So far, the Western Washington University precincts had above-average Stein performance but still well behind Romney, and with proportionately more Johnson votes.  Evergreen (and parts of Olympia itself) has a history of having a ~5% floor for Green Party candidates, even in Presidential races.  My guess is that most liberal arts universities will show higher Romney performances...there are just probably more ancestrally Republican and arch-Christian students than hardcore Greenies, stereotypes aside.  I know it was that way at my "ultra-liberal" school.

The closest in Whatcom County was a precinct near WWU, in the Sehome neighborhood, that voted 80% Obama, 10% Romney, 9% Other (a mix of Stein, Johnson, and some Rocky Anderson.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 23, 2012, 03:54:35 PM
Results for Evergreen State College (plus a neighboring, student-heavy precinct):

Obama 225
Stein 26
Romney 13
Johnson 5
Anderson 3

lawl.

If Portland had smaller precincts, Reed's precinct would be even worse for Romney (10 at the most).

Sure it would, champ.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 24, 2012, 08:17:54 PM
Former GOP Chris Vance posted this analysis (http://crosscut.com/2012/11/20/politics-government/111577/vance-inside-politics-mckenna-seattle-young/), which argued that voter turnout in 2012 was down among conservatives and rural votes but up among liberal urbanites.  I'm not sure I totally believe his numbers, especially about depressed GOP turnout, but it's pretty obvious that turnout in progressive urban areas was very high -- basically the only area in the state to match 2008 as a percentage of RVs.

Areas in blue area parts of Seattle; areas in green are parts of King County.  Especially impressive is that Capitol Hill, the biggest LGBT/young area of Seattle, which is full of apartments with frequent turnover, beat the crap out of affluent suburban areas full of older voters on the Eastside.  The only areas in Seattle that didn't have top-tier turnout are minority-heavy areas and downtown precincts (where turnout is dragged down badly by a mix of minority areas and homeless shelters.)

West Seattle: 87.93%
Magnolia: 87.84%
Inner North Seattle: 87.79%
Capitol Hill: 87.01%
Vashon Island: 87.00%
Medina (highest turnout Seattle suburb): 86.90%
Queen Anne: 85.95%
Far North Seattle: 84.60%
City of Seattle: 84.31%
Central Seattle: 84.25%
Whatcom County: 83.42%
Eastside (wealthy Seattle suburbs): 82.49%
Shoreline: 82.36%
Bellevue: 82.34%
Benton County: 82.20%
Redmond: 82.14%
Kitsap County: 81.91%
Spokane County: 81.28%
State: 81.10%
Snohomish County: 80.52%
Thurston County: 79.99%
Clark County: 79.51%
Pierce County: 78.87%
Des Moines: 78.82%
Burien: 78.78%
Rainier Valley: 78.52%
Renton: 77.98%
Downtown Seattle: 77.45%
Kent: 77.38%
Des Moines: 76.70%
South-Central Seattle: 76.33%
Yakima County: 73.65%
SeaTac: 73.44%
Tukwila: 72.70%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 24, 2012, 11:26:24 PM
It looks like Thurston County didn't fix the screw-up with Evergreen's precinct I told them about, and included a subdivision a mile away that's full of olds.  That would explain why there are so many Reject R-74 votes...so Stein probably really clobbered Romney there, considering that the subdivision alone includes 6 identified Republicans.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 25, 2012, 12:08:47 AM
Here's Tim Eyeman's intitiative in my hometown of Bellingham:

()


Only 51.89% of our electorate voted against in, compared to 53% or so last time.  :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 25, 2012, 01:38:08 AM
Here's Tim Eyeman's intitiative in my hometown of Bellingham:

()


Only 51.89% of our electorate voted against in, compared to 53% or so last time.  :(

I think college students tend to be low-information voters, and low-information liberals seem to vote Yes on Eyman stuff much more often.  You'll notice that the stand-out "Yes" precincts among the "No" are actually the WWU campus and surrounding, student-heavy precincts.  WWU itself wasn't even that close:

245 (Western Washington University): Yes 370, No 260 (59% Yes)
252 (Fairhaven College at WWU): Yes 138, No 113 (55% Yes)

Nice map, by the way!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 25, 2012, 03:32:16 AM
The closest in Whatcom County was a precinct near WWU, in the Sehome neighborhood, that voted 80% Obama, 10% Romney, 9% Other (a mix of Stein, Johnson, and some Rocky Anderson.)

I used to live in that precinct. :D

Out of curiosity, here it is compared to 2008:

2008
87.18% Obama
10.62%  McCain
2.20% Other

2012:
80.14% Obama (-7.04)
10.40% Romney (-0.22)
9.46% Other (+7.26)

---

And the other Bellingham precinct I lived in:

2008:
87.28% Obama
10.52% McCain
2.20% Other

2012:
83.61% Obama (-3.67)
10.37% Romney (-0.15)
6.02% Other (+3.82)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 25, 2012, 04:00:45 AM
Here's Tim Eyeman's intitiative in my hometown of Bellingham:

()


Only 51.89% of our electorate voted against in, compared to 53% or so last time.  :(

I think college students tend to be low-information voters, and low-information liberals seem to vote Yes on Eyman stuff much more often.  You'll notice that the stand-out "Yes" precincts among the "No" are actually the WWU campus and surrounding, student-heavy precincts.  WWU itself wasn't even that close:

245 (Western Washington University): Yes 370, No 260 (59% Yes)
252 (Fairhaven College at WWU): Yes 138, No 113 (55% Yes)

Nice map, by the way!

Thank you  :)




Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: wdolson on November 25, 2012, 07:27:14 PM
Hello all.  I'm fairly new to the forums.  I guess I'm the only Washingtonian here from Clark County.  Jaime Herrera Beutler is my House Rep, though I never voted for her.

Back in 2010 when this was an open seat Denny Heck and her were in a tight race for this seat.  Super pacs pumped a lot of money into the Portland TV market with negative ads against Denny Heck which gave Herrera Beutler the seat.

The redistricting for the 2012 election has had more impact on WA-3 than I think any other district in the state.  WA-3 is now much smaller geographically and includes a section of the Columbia River east of Clark County (a former portion of Doc Hasting's district).  WA-3 used to be a swing district with the liberal Olympia suburbs in the north offset by the more conservative Clark County to the south.  Now it's a pretty conservative district overall.

Herrera Beutler has always come across as very fake to me.  Her smile seems too forced and too fake.  Her record doesn't thrill me either. 

Considering WA-3's demographics, Herrera Beutler is probably going to be there for a while unless something happens like the entire country suddenly has a big political shift, or she gets run out in some scandal.

Some other observations:
Here in Clark County, we're sort of isolated from what's going on in the rest of WA.  You need to seek out political news on the state because the Portland media market generally ignores WA politics unless something big happens.

Another thing I noted is that CA's new districting and primary system got national news in the last couple of months like it was something brand new when CA pretty much pinched the same system WA has used for several years (in the case of the primaries) or decades (for redistricting). 

Not to bash on CA.  I grew up there and most of my family still lives there.  It just seems like one of those 600 pound gorilla things.  The country ignores it when a medium-small state like WA adopts it, but it becomes a headline if a big state does the same thing.

If CA goes to all vote by mail it will probably be big national news too, even though OR pioneered the idea (in the US).

Bill


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 25, 2012, 07:34:05 PM
Another thing I noted is that CA's new districting and primary system got national news in the last couple of months like it was something brand new when CA pretty much pinched the same system WA has used for several years (in the case of the primaries) or decades (for redistricting). 

Not to bash on CA.  I grew up there and most of my family still lives there.  It just seems like one of those 600 pound gorilla things.  The country ignores it when a medium-small state like WA adopts it, but it becomes a headline if a big state does the same thing.

If CA goes to all vote by mail it will probably be big national news too, even though OR pioneered the idea (in the US).

I've noticed this phenomenon as well. California adopted online voter registration for the 2012 cycle and I saw a couple news articles that heralded this as some revolutionary breakthrough. They all ignored that fact that we've had that system in place for several cycles now (heck, you can now even register to vote on Facebook in this state).

Also, welcome to the forum!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 25, 2012, 09:36:31 PM
Hello all.  I'm fairly new to the forums.  I guess I'm the only Washingtonian here from Clark County.  Jaime Herrera Beutler is my House Rep, though I never voted for her.

Back in 2010 when this was an open seat Denny Heck and her were in a tight race for this seat.  Super pacs pumped a lot of money into the Portland TV market with negative ads against Denny Heck which gave Herrera Beutler the seat.

The redistricting for the 2012 election has had more impact on WA-3 than I think any other district in the state.  WA-3 is now much smaller geographically and includes a section of the Columbia River east of Clark County (a former portion of Doc Hasting's district).  WA-3 used to be a swing district with the liberal Olympia suburbs in the north offset by the more conservative Clark County to the south.  Now it's a pretty conservative district overall.

Herrera Beutler has always come across as very fake to me.  Her smile seems too forced and too fake.  Her record doesn't thrill me either. 

Considering WA-3's demographics, Herrera Beutler is probably going to be there for a while unless something happens like the entire country suddenly has a big political shift, or she gets run out in some scandal.
Bill

Welcome to the forums!  I used to be in Herrera-Beutler's district so I feel your pain.  She's not blatantly offensive in an Allen West or Michele Bachmann way, but she is a GOP drone.  I agree that in the newly redrawn WA-03, she is safe barring a Democratic wave or scandal.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 25, 2012, 10:26:15 PM
Welcome! It would take an 06/08 type of environment to get even a close race with Herrera-Beutler. What did she get this year? 60%? That's impressive considering McMorris Rodgers did only marginally better than her and she's in a considerably more R district.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 26, 2012, 12:18:29 AM
And just for the lulz, I also did the gubernatorial, senatorial, and presidential elections:

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 26, 2012, 02:43:14 AM
Tim Sheldon was "only" re-elected 54-46 over another Democrat in his re-election bid to the Mason County Commission. He beat the same opponent 63-37 in 2008 (and I still can't believe he gets away with holding two elected offices like that). And not that anyone cares, independents won both of the other seats up, beating Democrats in both cases.

It's always interesting when independents win partisan races. It's not terribly uncommon in some of the smaller counties. Wahkiakum also has a 2-1 independent commission. One won in Clallam as well.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 26, 2012, 02:48:37 AM
Not sure about in Wahkiakum and Clallam, but both of those independents in Mason County were just Republicans who figured out that they could win more easily with that ballot label (one of them has actually run as a Republican candidate in the past; don't know about the other).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 26, 2012, 03:57:29 AM
While we're on the fascinating subject of county commissioners, here's some data I assembled about county commissioners in all 39 Washington counties as a result of this month's election!

3 Republicans: Adams, Benton, Chelan, Columbia, Douglas, Ferry, Franklin, Grant, Kittitas, Klickitat, Lewis, Lincoln, Okanogan, Pend Oreille, Skamania, Spokane, Stevens, Walla Walla, Whitman, Yakima

2 Republicans, 1 Democrat: Clark, Grays Harbor, Island

2 Republicans, 1 Independent: Garfield

1 Republican, 1 Democrat, 1 Independent: Asotin, Clallam, Cowlitz

2 Independents, 1 Democrat: Mason, Wahkiakum

2 Democrats, 1 Republican: Skagit

3 Democrats: Jefferson, Kitsap, Pacific, Thurston

County Councils: Pierce (5-2 R-D with a D executive), Snohomish (4-1 D-R with a D executive)

Non-partisan Councils: King (in reality 5-4 D-R with a D executive), San Juan (I have no real idea what these people are), Whatcom (in reality 4-3 D-R with an R executive)

We lost Democratic commissioners in Cowlitz, Ferry, Grays Harbor, Island, Mason, Pend Oreille, Wahkiakum and Whitman this fall. No pick-ups to speak of. :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 26, 2012, 07:58:40 PM
Something unexpected: the race in the 47th LD for State House, Pos. 1 went from not being in recount territory to being in hand recount territory with today's report. The Republican incumbent leads by 134 votes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 26, 2012, 08:11:47 PM
Well, King is 99.9% reported, so not happening...but that would have been an unexpected bit of awesome.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but Mark Hargrove seems like such a dumb.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 26, 2012, 09:18:10 PM
Yes, that's the impression people have given me as well.

Down in Clark County, Benton leads by 82 votes today; Stonier by 135.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 27, 2012, 02:04:31 PM
Election results are being certified today.  I'll report results as I see them.

Yakima County - City of Wapato
Obama 670 (85.35%)
Romney 102 (12.99%)
Other 13 (1.66%)

Yakima County - Town of Mabton
Obama 266 (84.98%)
Romney 44 (14.06%)
Other 3 (0.96%)

Something tells me that Romney might have had some problems with the Mexican-American vote.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 27, 2012, 03:17:30 PM
^ lolz

Senate Democrats are out with something of a peace offering in regards to chamber control. Not clear to me if this a serious offer or just an effort to make one so they can say they tried.

- Tim Sheldon would become President Pro Tem, so he and Brad Owen would chair/vice chair the Rules Committee (both are from Mason County). The current President Pro Tem, Paull Shin, would become Vice President Pro Tem, a position which I don't think exists right now.

- Conservative Democrat Jim Hargrove of Hoquiam would chair the budget-writing Ways & Means Committee, a position being vacated by Ed Murray. The vice chair would be liberal Democrat Sharon Nelson of Vashon Island (the vice chair is in charge of the capital construction budget).

- Rodney Tom would get to keep his position as chair of the Higher Education, and it looks from a quick glance that all the other Democratic chairs stay the same as well (most notably Rosemary McAuliffe of Bothell would keep her chairmanship of the K-12 Education Committee. McAuliffe is perceived as a close ally of the WEA.)

- Meanwhile, a new "Select Committee on Education Finance and Results" would be co-chaired by David Frockt of Seattle and a Republican to-be-named. Since it's a select committee it wouldn't have any real power but would instead be more of a fact-finding task force.

- The Democrats would only have one more member than Republicans on all the committees, which is basically unheard of power for a minority party.

I guess this is better than Majority Leader Rodney Tom but... ugh.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 27, 2012, 07:18:00 PM
Thurston - College precinct - Final results

Obama 251 (82.3%)
Stein 31 (10.2%)
Romney 13 (4.3%)
Johnson 7
Anderson 3

Lol. Just imagine if they hadn't actually included the random subdivision in there.

Some close shaves for Romney versus Other elsewhere in Olympia:  Obama 235, Romney 26, Other 22 was the closest.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 27, 2012, 07:51:16 PM
Sheldon seems pleased with the PPT offering, but it's not clear yet whether a crisis has been averted: http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/11/27/conservative-dems-snag-key-committee-posts-as-state-democratic-caucus-names-new-leaders


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 27, 2012, 08:15:05 PM
Busy day in Washington politics. Seattle City Councilman Tim Burgess is running for mayor: http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/11/27/its-official-tim-burgess-is-running-for-mayor


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 27, 2012, 08:23:18 PM
...aaand for my third post in a row, certification is in from all the counties.

Turnout: 81.25%

President
Obama: 56.16%
Romney: 41.29%
Others: 2.55%

Governor
Inslee: 51.54%
McKenna: 48.46%

Senator
Cantwell: 60.45%
Baumgartner: 39.55%

R-74
Approve: 53.70%
Reject: 46.30%

I-502
Yes: 55.70%
No: 44.30%

Hand recount for LD 17 State Senator (Republican leads by 78 votes); machine recounts for LD 17 State Representative Pos. 1 (Democrat leads by 139 votes) and LD 47 State Representative Pos. 1 (Republican leads by 157 votes).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 27, 2012, 09:11:07 PM
These numbers exclude King County.

Top Obama
1. Nespelem - 92.00%
2. Wapato - 85.35%
3. Mabton - 84.98%
4. Langley - 81.18%
5. Port Townsend - 78.30%
6. Mattawa - 77.52%
7. Toppenish - 77.10%
8. Bainbridge Island - 74.76%
9. Index - 74.75%
10. Granger - 74.41%

Top Romney
1. Lamont - 84.38%
2. Hatton - 78.95%
3. LaCrosse - 77.90%
4. Waverly - 76.92%
5. Starbuck - 76.4%
6. Washtucna - 74.53%
7. Mansfield - 74.48%
8. St. John - 74.32%
9. Lynden - 73.74%
10. Davenport - 71.07%

R-74 Best Performances
1. Langley - 79.67%
2. Bainbridge Island - 79.32%
3. Port Townsend - 77.93%
4. Index - 71.88%
5. Bellingham - 70.88%
6. Olympia - 70.66%
7. La Conner - 69.91%
8. Friday Harbor - 67.34%
9. Pullman - 66.25%
10. Ruston - 64.08%

R-74 Worst Performances
1. Hatton - 15.79%
2. Starbuck - 20.00%
3. Lynden - 21.04%
4. Kahlotus - 21.33%
5. Malden - 21.51%
6. Coulee City - 22.45%
7. Washtucna - 23.36%
8. Warden - 24.62%
9. Mansfield - 25.35%
10. Reardan - 25.67%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 27, 2012, 09:45:24 PM
The Washington Post profiles Patty Murray.  The general theme is that she is very influential in the Senate.

Quote
With a low-key style that contrasts with some of the Senate’s camera hogs, Murray may be the most powerful senator a whole lot of people have never heard of outside of the two Washingtons where she lives and works.

Quote
“Joe, Patty Murray is one of the driving forces in my caucus. If she doesn’t like it, she’ll kill the bill,” Reid told Vice President Biden when he called to broach the idea during talks. He then turned to Murray, who was seated across from him. “Patty, do you like it?”

“No,” replied Murray, chairman of the Senate’s Veterans’ Affairs Committee. “I’ll kill the bill.”

Republicans agreed to shield veterans funds.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/patty-murray-will-be-key-voice-in-senate-on-budget-deal/2012/11/23/d02a5a02-300d-11e2-a30e-5ca76eeec857_story.html (http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/patty-murray-will-be-key-voice-in-senate-on-budget-deal/2012/11/23/d02a5a02-300d-11e2-a30e-5ca76eeec857_story.html)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 28, 2012, 02:36:29 AM
I put up some precinct maps from Snohomish County in my precinct map thread (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=165333.50).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 28, 2012, 12:41:14 PM
I put up some precinct maps from Snohomish County in my precinct map thread (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=165333.50).

Those are great! I'm surprised how well Obama did in Monroe. Did it vote for him?

Oh... as for Burgess running... ehh.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 28, 2012, 12:42:28 PM
I put up some precinct maps from Snohomish County in my precinct map thread (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=165333.50).

Those are great! I'm surprised how well Obama did in Monroe. Did it vote for him?

Oh... as for Burgess running... ehh.

Yeah, Monroe was Obama 2,966; Romney 2,738; Other 128.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on November 28, 2012, 01:37:02 PM
You probably guessed I would say this from my username, but you guys out in Washington state must have nothing better to do than to sit around the house, get high, and watch the tube.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 28, 2012, 08:24:07 PM
Mark Schoesler of Ritzville has been elected Senate Republican leader.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 28, 2012, 08:26:17 PM
You probably guessed I would say this from my username, but you guys out in Washington state must have nothing better to do than to sit around the house, get high, and watch the tube.

Not every Washington poster voted to legalize marijuana.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 28, 2012, 11:20:56 PM
You probably guessed I would say this from my username, but you guys out in Washington state must have nothing better to do than to sit around the house, get high, and watch the tube.

Not every Washington poster voted to legalize marijuana.

More to point, anyone who voted on the basis of whether they like or dislike marijuana is an asshole.  I've never touched the stuff, but I'm less of a fan of drug cartels and indefensible enforcement costs.  Personal dis(taste) for marijuana and its smokers is an incredibly juvenile basis for deciding such a significant public policy.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 29, 2012, 01:32:20 PM
You probably guessed I would say this from my username, but you guys out in Washington state must have nothing better to do than to sit around the house, get high, and watch the tube.

Not every Washington poster voted to legalize marijuana.

More to point, anyone who voted on the basis of whether they like or dislike marijuana is an asshole.  I've never touched the stuff, but I'm less of a fan of drug cartels and indefensible enforcement costs.  Personal dis(taste) for marijuana and its smokers is an incredibly juvenile basis for deciding such a significant public policy.

I would respectfully disagree with pretty much all of that, but I would also point out that my preferred policy option wasn't on the ballot (decriminalization, not legalization).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 29, 2012, 05:57:27 PM
You probably guessed I would say this from my username, but you guys out in Washington state must have nothing better to do than to sit around the house, get high, and watch the tube.

Not every Washington poster voted to legalize marijuana.

More to point, anyone who voted on the basis of whether they like or dislike marijuana is an asshole.  I've never touched the stuff, but I'm less of a fan of drug cartels and indefensible enforcement costs.  Personal dis(taste) for marijuana and its smokers is an incredibly juvenile basis for deciding such a significant public policy.

I would respectfully disagree with pretty much all of that, but I would also point out that my preferred policy option wasn't on the ballot (decriminalization, not legalization).

I'm not sure which part of that was remotely controversial?  I can understand opposing marijuana on the basis that it's bad for people, but that's not the same thing as opposing it because it's distasteful.  What possible relevance to public policy could that have?  How could it possibly be more relevant to the financial costs, public health concerns, law enforcement concerns, effect on cartel drug trade, and pretty much all of the factors involved?

(I was just responding to Oldiesfreak's post, by the way, not alluding to the reason why anyone actually voted or didn't vote on the measure...just in case it seemed otherwise.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 29, 2012, 06:18:49 PM
You probably guessed I would say this from my username, but you guys out in Washington state must have nothing better to do than to sit around the house, get high, and watch the tube.

Not every Washington poster voted to legalize marijuana.

More to point, anyone who voted on the basis of whether they like or dislike marijuana is an asshole.  I've never touched the stuff, but I'm less of a fan of drug cartels and indefensible enforcement costs.  Personal dis(taste) for marijuana and its smokers is an incredibly juvenile basis for deciding such a significant public policy.

I would respectfully disagree with pretty much all of that, but I would also point out that my preferred policy option wasn't on the ballot (decriminalization, not legalization).

I'm not sure which part of that was remotely controversial?  I can understand opposing marijuana on the basis that it's bad for people, but that's not the same thing as opposing it because it's distasteful.  What possible relevance to public policy could that have?  How could it possibly be more relevant to the financial costs, public health concerns, law enforcement concerns, effect on cartel drug trade, and pretty much all of the factors involved?

(I was just responding to Oldiesfreak's post, by the way, not alluding to the reason why anyone actually voted or didn't vote on the measure...just in case it seemed otherwise.)

I wasn't completely sure about who you were responding to, but I thought that was the case. :P

Presumably if someone finds marijuana "distasteful" then there is reason behind it. If not and they still want to ban it, then you're probably right (though it's not guaranteed). Provided they have such reasoning, I see no reason why it would be any less valid of a basis for a vote than anything else. People's gut reactions to issues are probably the most widely used rationale for voting that there is, occasionally wrapped up in their own cherry-picked arguments that happen to align with that feeling. We all do it. Sure, it might not be the best reasoning, but I don't think it makes someone an asshole. It's simply not possible to remove emotion and viscera like that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 29, 2012, 06:23:08 PM
I wasn't completely sure about who you were responding to, but I thought that was the case. :P

Presumably if someone finds marijuana "distasteful" then there is reason behind it. If not and they still want to ban it, then you're probably right (though it's not guaranteed). Provided they have such reasoning, I see no reason why it would be any less valid of a basis for a vote than anything else. People's gut reactions to issues are probably the most widely used rationale for voting that there is, occasionally wrapped up in their own cherry-picked arguments that happen to align with that feeling. We all do it. Sure, it might not be the best reasoning, but I don't think it makes someone an asshole.

Teenagers, innocent people, are being slaughtered and left in shallow graves in Mexico.  Let's assume, for a minute, that legalizing marijuana decreases cartel profits -- which I think the weight of the evidence pretty clearly shows (the arguments criticizing this assertion are pretty weak, IMO.)  Why would someone rationalize and cherry-pick for their personal distaste for potheads above their personal distaste for mass slaughter?  I don't care how natural that is, or how common it is.  I don't understand why using the inferior reasoning can be morally justified.  It's choosing to preference personal prejudice over much, much more important things -- even, albeit indirectly, people's lives.  How is it not self-centered, vindictive and abhorrent?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 29, 2012, 06:39:30 PM
I wasn't completely sure about who you were responding to, but I thought that was the case. :P

Presumably if someone finds marijuana "distasteful" then there is reason behind it. If not and they still want to ban it, then you're probably right (though it's not guaranteed). Provided they have such reasoning, I see no reason why it would be any less valid of a basis for a vote than anything else. People's gut reactions to issues are probably the most widely used rationale for voting that there is, occasionally wrapped up in their own cherry-picked arguments that happen to align with that feeling. We all do it. Sure, it might not be the best reasoning, but I don't think it makes someone an asshole.

Teenagers are being slaughtered and left in shallow graves in Mexico.  Let's assume, for a minute, that legalizing marijuana decreases cartel profits -- which I think the weight of the evidence pretty clearly shows (the arguments criticizing this assertion are pretty weak, IMO.)  Why would someone rationalize and cherry-pick for their personal distaste for potheads above their personal distaste for mass slaughter?  I don't care how natural that is, or how common it is.  I don't understand why using the inferior reasoning can be morally justified.  It's choosing to preference personal prejudice over much, much more important things -- even, albeit indirectly, people's lives.  How is it not self-centered, vindictive and abhorrent?

Assuming your premise is true, it doesn't follow that legalizing marijuana would end the cartels or the violence around them. They make more money off other drugs that aren't going to be legalized any time soon. You can't assume that a vote for legalizing marijuana is a vote to save teenagers or that a vote to keep it illegal is a vote to kill them. Also, I don't think that legalizing drugs is the solution to ending cartels anyway; they are symptomatic of deeper economic and social problems in Latin America (e.g. institutionalized cultural corruption makes policing impossible, and inadequate human capital from no infrastructure, inadequate schooling, etc. holds back economic development from providing a standard of living prerequisite to make people not have to resort to violent criminal behavior, etc.).

Regardless, oldiesfreak1854 is an odd duck, shall we say.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 29, 2012, 07:25:35 PM
I wasn't completely sure about who you were responding to, but I thought that was the case. :P

Presumably if someone finds marijuana "distasteful" then there is reason behind it. If not and they still want to ban it, then you're probably right (though it's not guaranteed). Provided they have such reasoning, I see no reason why it would be any less valid of a basis for a vote than anything else. People's gut reactions to issues are probably the most widely used rationale for voting that there is, occasionally wrapped up in their own cherry-picked arguments that happen to align with that feeling. We all do it. Sure, it might not be the best reasoning, but I don't think it makes someone an asshole.

Teenagers are being slaughtered and left in shallow graves in Mexico.  Let's assume, for a minute, that legalizing marijuana decreases cartel profits -- which I think the weight of the evidence pretty clearly shows (the arguments criticizing this assertion are pretty weak, IMO.)  Why would someone rationalize and cherry-pick for their personal distaste for potheads above their personal distaste for mass slaughter?  I don't care how natural that is, or how common it is.  I don't understand why using the inferior reasoning can be morally justified.  It's choosing to preference personal prejudice over much, much more important things -- even, albeit indirectly, people's lives.  How is it not self-centered, vindictive and abhorrent?

Assuming your premise is true, it doesn't follow that legalizing marijuana would end the cartels or the violence around them. They make more money off other drugs that aren't going to be legalized any time soon. You can't assume that a vote for legalizing marijuana is a vote to save teenagers or that a vote to keep it illegal is a vote to kill them. Also, I don't think that legalizing drugs is the solution to ending cartels anyway; they are symptomatic of deeper economic and social problems in Latin America (e.g. institutionalized cultural corruption makes policing impossible, and inadequate human capital from no infrastructure, inadequate schooling, etc. holds back economic development from providing a standard of living prerequisite to make people not have to resort to violent criminal behavior, etc.).

When did I say that marijuana legalization would end the cartels?  I think the evidence is pretty overwhelming that it would have a marginal effect in decreasing their revenues and, I think, the arguments that this would decrease violence is vastly better.  However, that's a not the point of what I'm saying.  The point of what I'm saying is that, if someone ranks something like the death of others below their personal distaste in choosing a public policy on this issue, it's abhorrent.  It doesn't matter if "cherry-picking" arguments that align with our "gut reactions" is natural/common/whatever.  If this involves:

1. Irrationally prioritizing one thing (e.g., personal distaste) over another, more morally important thing (e.g., life); or,

2. Claiming to maintain rational preferences (e.g. life > distaste for pot-smokers), but "cherry-picking" evidence in a way that skews the evidence in a way that  effectively orders the preferences irrationally (e.g., distaste for pot-smokers > life)

Then:

1. That's f**ked up; and,

2. We are absolutely morally responsible for the gap between our cherry-picked evidence and actuality, and our irrational prioritizations (whether explicit or demonstrated by the way we cherry-pick/rationalize) and our actual moral beliefs.

That's probably unnecessarily elaborate, so...in other words, how the hell can cherry-picking and rationalization logically be morally OK, except by pure accident?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 30, 2012, 03:49:09 PM
Looking at the precinct results across the state, it's pretty clear that, despite their relatively low education and income levels and high levels of religiosity, Native Americans probably voted for gay marriage at rates comparable to or greater than whites.  Here's an aggregation of results from Native-heavy precincts, excluding areas like the Lummi Reservation, Suquamish Reservation and Tulalip, where there are lots of liberal whites around.

President
Obama 2,586 (75.92%)
Romney 751 (22.05%)
Other 69 (2.03%)

Referendum 74
Approved 1,812 (54.45%)
Rejected 1,516 (45.55%)

As you can tell from the number of Romney votes, there are definitely some white voters polluting the numbers, and they're not liberal ones; all but one of the precincts are in areas where the whites are mostly socially conservative.  It looks like reservation Indians voted for gay marriage by double digits.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on December 01, 2012, 01:20:34 AM
After tabulating the precinct results, Obama won WA-10 56.3% to 41.14%, and won WA-6 56.14% to 41.84%.  Very slight republican shifts, as expected. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 01, 2012, 01:29:22 AM
King County maps shall be coming soon.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 01, 2012, 01:55:22 AM
^ I hadn't noticed they released them today! I thought they were going to make us wait until Tuesday. Looks like they've listed I-1240 three times, and are missing pot and gay marriage, so I'm guessing they mislabeled those two as 1240.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 01, 2012, 02:15:06 AM
^ I hadn't noticed they released them today! I thought they were going to make us wait until Tuesday. Looks like they've listed I-1240 three times, and are missing pot and gay marriage, so I'm guessing they mislabeled those two as 1240.

Yes, they did.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on December 01, 2012, 02:25:24 AM
Wait, you mean precinct results?  Already?  ???


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 01, 2012, 02:56:04 AM
President:

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_01_12_12_2_55_20.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 01, 2012, 03:04:26 AM
Gay marriage:

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_01_12_12_3_03_45.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 01, 2012, 03:11:52 AM
Marijuana:

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_01_12_12_3_11_11.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 01, 2012, 05:16:27 AM
Top R-74
1. Seattle - 82.27%
2. Langley - 79.67%
3. Bainbridge Island - 79.32%
4. Port Townsend - 77.93%
5. Lake Forest Park - 72.84%
6. Index - 71.88%
7. Bellingham - 70.88%
8. Olympia - 70.66%
9. Mercer Island - 70.58%
10. La Conner - 69.91%
11. Friday Harbor - 67.34%
12. Shoreline - 67.09%
13. Yarrow Point - 66.96%
14. Beaux Arts Village - 66.51%
15. Pullman - 66.25%
16. Medina - 65.74%
17. Redmond - 65.39%
18. Kirkland - 65.18%
19. Kenmore - 64.39%
20. Ruston - 64.39%
...
273. Reardan - 25.67%
274. Mansfield - 25.35%
275. Warden - 24.62%
276. Washtucna - 23.36%
277. Coulee City - 22.45%
278. Malden - 21.51%
279. Kahlotus - 21.33%
280. Lynden - 21.04%
281. Starbuck - 20.00%
282. Hatton - 15.79%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 01, 2012, 05:24:55 AM
Top Obama
1. Nespelem - 92.00%
2. Wapato - 85.35%
3. Mabton - 84.98%
4. Seattle - 83.38%
5. Langley - 81.18%
6. Port Townsend - 78.29%
7. Mattawa - 77.51%
8. Toppenish - 77.10%
9. Bainbridge Island - 74.75%
10. Index - 74.74%
11. Granger - 74.41%
12. Tukwila - 73.89%
13. Lake Forest Park - 73.50%
14. Shoreline - 73.15%
15. Olympia - 72.16%
16. Winthrop - 71.87%
17. Bellingham - 70.36%
18. Mountlake Terrace - 70.12%
19. Bingen - 70.00%
20. Skykomish - 69.81%
...
273. Krupp - 26.08%
274. Washtucna - 24.52%
275. Lynden - 24.32%
276. St. John - 23.97%
277. Waverly - 23.07%
278. Mansfield - 22.75%
279. Starbuck - 22.09%
280. Hatton - 21.05%
281. LaCrosse - 20.44%
282. Lamont - 15.62%

Top Romney
1. Lamont - 84.37%
2. Hatton - 78.94%
3. LaCrosse - 77.90%
4. Waverly - 76.92%
5. Starbuck - 76.74%
6. Washtucna - 74.52%
7. Mansfield - 74.48%
8. St. John - 74.31%
9. Lynden - 73.74%
10. Ione - 71.06%
11. Davenport - 70.34%
12. Reardan - 70.12%
13. Prescott - 69.11%
14. Yacolt - 68.48%
15. Colfax - 68.37%
16. Pomeroy - 68.28%
17. Waterville - 68.26%
18. Colton - 67.19%
19. Nooksack - 66.31%
20. Hartline - 66.21%
...
273. Bainbridge Island - 23.07%
274. Mattawa - 21.70%
275. Toppenish - 21.37%
276. Index - 19.19%
277. Port Townsend - 17.30%
278. Langley - 16.53%
279. Mabton - 14.05%
280. Seattle - 13.80%
281. Wapato - 12.99%
282. Nespelem - 6.00%

Top Other
1. Krupp - 13.04%
2. Latah - 8.65%
3. Sprague - 6.12%
4. Index - 6.06%
5. Hamilton - 5.88%
6. Rock Island - 5.76%
7. Tonasket - 5.54%
8. Harrington - 5.40%
9. Riverside - 5.26%
10. Vader - 5.12%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 01, 2012, 05:30:28 AM
Seattle Neighborhoods
Top Obama
1. Central District - 92.00%
2. Stevens - 91.49%
3. Columbia City - 90.92%
4. Broadway - 90.90%
5. Madrona - 90.20%
6. Mount Baker - 89.54%
7. Atlantic - 89.45%
8. Fremont - 88.34%
9. Phinney Ridge - 88.24%
10. Leschi - 88.21%
11. North Beacon Hill - 88.06%
12. North Stevens - 88.00%
13. Whittier Heights - 87.95%
14. West Woodland - 87.94%
15. Wallingford - 87.79%
16. South Beacon Hill/Holly Park - 87.17%
17. Ravenna - 86.75%
18. Meridian - 86.75%
19. Loyal Heights - 86.40%
20. Denny-Blaine - 86.33%
21. Brighton/NewHolly - 85.83%
22. Eastlake - 85.74%
23. Dunlap - 85.66%
24. Ballard - 85.63%
25. Montlake - 85.49%
26. Rainier View - 85.40%
27. Mid Beacon Hill - 85.28%
28. North Delridge - 85.17%
29. Roosevelt - 85.14%
30. North Broadway - 85.11%
31. Georgetown/SoDo - 85.09%
32. Greenwood - 84.99%
33. First Hill - 84.75%
34. Bryant - 84.25%
35. Roxhill - 84.21%
36. Wedgwood - 84.11%
37. Green Lake - 83.89%
38. Rainier Beach - 83.80%
39. Maple Leaf - 83.66%
40. Seward Park - 83.47%
41. West Queen Anne - 83.41%
42. South Park - 83.39%
43. Portage Bay - 83.36%
44. Victory Heights - 83.07%
45. Meadowbrook - 82.91%
46. High Point - 82.84%
47. University District - 82.54%
48. North Queen Anne - 82.14%
49. Fairmount Park - 82.11%
50. Gatewood - 82.02%
51. Pioneer Square - 81.99%
52. North College Park - 81.94%
53. Olympic Hills - 81.90%
54. East Queen Anne - 81.87%
55. West Seattle Junction - 81.80%
56. Lower Queen Anne - 81.78%
57. Crown Hill - 81.60%
58. South Delridge - 81.54%
59. Riverview - 81.50%
60. Cedar Park - 81.42%
61. Bitter Lake - 81.38%
62. Highland Park - 81.16%
63. Sunset Hill - 80.99%
64. Matthews Beach - 80.91%
65. Hawthorne Hills - 80.87%
66. Interbay/Gilman - 80.64%
67. Sand Point - 80.45%
68. Haller Lake - 80.18%
69. Westlake - 80.18%
70. International District/Yesler Terrace - 80.11%
71. Genesee - 79.98%
72. Seaview - 79.17%
73. Denny Regrade - 79.05%
74. Broadview - 78.89%
75. South Lake Union - 78.87%
76. North Admiral - 78.82%
77. Belltown - 78.71%
78. Pinehurst - 78.11%
79. Lawton Park - 77.90%
80. Fauntleroy - 77.26%
81. Madison Valley - 77.09%
82. Downtown - 76.32%
83. View Ridge - 76.19%
84. North Beach/Blue Ridge - 76.05%
85. Arbor Heights - 75.62%
86. Alki - 74.82%
87. Southeast Magnolia - 73.14%
88. Laurelhurst - 72.17%
89. Windermere - 71.12%
90. Briarcliff - 67.85%
91. Madison Park - 64.60%

Top Romney
1. Madison Park - 34.05%
2. Briarcliff - 30.40%
3. Windermere - 26.40%
4. Laurelhurst - 26.35%
5. Southeast Magnolia - 24.43%
6. Alki - 23.25%
7. View Ridge - 22.25%
8. Arbor Heights - 22.06%
9. North Beach/Blue Ridge - 21.92%
10. Fauntleroy - 21.32%
11. Madison Valley - 21.01%
12. Downtown - 20.92%
13. Lawton Park - 19.85%
14. Pinehurst - 19.19%
15. North Admiral - 19.09%
16. Broadview - 18.80%
17. Seaview - 18.66%
18. Genesee - 17.77%
19. South Lake Union - 17.66%
20. Belltown - 17.63%
21. Haller Lake - 17.13%
22. Matthews Beach - 17.12%
23. Sunset Hill - 16.90%
24. Denny Regrade - 16.57%
25. Hawthorne Hills - 16.42%
26. Highland Park - 16.39%
27. Riverview - 16.37%
28. Westlake - 16.36%
29. Cedar Park - 15.88%
30. South Delridge - 15.83%
31. Gatewood - 15.65%
32. East Queen Anne - 15.65%
33. West Seattle Junction - 15.65%
34. Olympic Hills - 15.49%
35. International District/Yesler Terrace - 15.41%
36. Crown Hill - 15.40%
37. Bitter Lake - 15.33%
38. North Queen Anne - 15.32%
39. Fairmount Park - 15.28%
40. Interbay/Gilman - 15.22%
41. Sand Point - 15.17%
42. North College Park - 14.81%
43. Rainier Beach - 14.75%
44. Lower Queen Anne - 14.58%
45. High Point - 14.44%
46. West Queen Anne - 14.31%
47. Victory Heights - 14.24%
48. Seward Park - 14.00%
49. Portage Bay - 13.90%
50. Meadowbrook - 13.72%
51. Roxhill - 13.17%
52. Green Lake - 13.14%
53. Maple Leaf - 13.07%
54. South Park - 13.06%
55. Pioneer Square - 13.05%
56. Bryant - 12.97%
57. North Broadway - 12.89%
58. Wedgwood - 12.88%
59. University District - 12.74%
60. Dunlap - 12.73%
61. Mid Beacon Hill - 12.72%
62. Montlake - 12.62%
63. Rainier View - 12.46%
64. Brighton/NewHolly - 12.40%
65. Denny-Blaine - 12.27%
66. First Hill - 12.17%
67. South Beacon Hill/Holly Park - 11.75%
68. North Delridge - 11.73%
69. Roosevelt - 11.68%
70. Greenwood - 11.58%
71. Loyal Heights - 11.32%
72. Ballard - 11.09%
73. North Stevens - 10.95%
74. Eastlake - 10.72%
75. Ravenna - 10.4%
76. Meridian - 9.73%
77. Georgetown/SoDo - 9.61%
78. Whittier Heights - 9.17%
79. Leschi - 9.14%
80. Phinney Ridge - 9.07%
81. Mount Baker - 8.91%
82. North Beacon Hill - 8.86%
83. Wallingford - 8.84%
84. West Woodland - 8.46%
85. Fremont - 7.67%
86. Madrona - 7.56%
87. Atlantic - 7.21%
88. Columbia City - 6.34%
89. Broadway - 5.29%
90. Stevens - 5.10%
91. Central District - 4.28%

Top R-74 (gay marriage)
1. Broadway - 94.47%
2. Fremont - 92.79%
3. North Stevens - 92.41%
4. Stevens - 92.05%
5. Eastlake - 91.43%
6. Wallingford - 91.03%
7. North Broadway - 90.97%
8. Phinney Ridge - 90.19%
9. Meridian - 89.97%
10. Portage Bay - 89.88%
11. Madrona - 89.35%
12. West Woodland - 89.05%
13. Montlake - 88.96%
14. West Queen Anne - 88.46%
15. Ravenna - 88.01%
16. Westlake - 87.87%
17. Lower Queen Anne - 87.84%
18. Whittier Heights - 87.77%
19. Madison Valley - 87.58%
20. Ballard - 87.55%
21. Roosevelt - 87.20%
22. East Queen Anne - 86.84%
23. Loyal Heights - 86.70%
24. University District - 86.53%
25. Central District - 86.44%
26. Green Lake - 86.05%
27. North Queen Anne - 85.93%
28. First Hill - 85.81%
29. Denny Regrade - 85.77%
30. Denny-Blaine - 84.81%
31. Wedgwood - 84.78%
32. Georgetown/SoDo - 84.64%
33. Bryant - 84.41%
34. Greenwood - 84.31%
35. Hawthorne Hills - 83.87%
36. Leschi - 83.50%
37. West Seattle Junction - 83.41%
38. South Lake Union - 83.09%
39. Interbay/Gilman - 83.03%
40. Mount Baker - 82.97%
41. Downtown - 82.95%
42. Maple Leaf - 82.86%
43. Sunset Hill - 82.84%
44. Belltown - 82.81%
45. Meadowbrook - 82.63%
46. Roxhill - 82.46%
47. Gatewood - 81.46%
48. Matthews Beach - 81.34%
49. Fairmount Park - 81.20%
50. North College Park - 80.88%
51. View Ridge - 80.87%
52. North Delridge - 80.83%
53. Seward Park - 80.81%
54. Seaview - 80.72%
55. Laurelhurst - 80.40%
56. Sand Point - 80.04%
57. North Admiral - 79.84%
58. Genesee - 79.55%
59. Victory Heights - 79.39%
60. Lawton Park - 79.36%
61. North Beach/Blue Ridge - 78.95%
62. Crown Hill - 78.87%
63. Windermere - 78.86%
64. Madison Park - 78.80%
65. Southeast Magnolia - 78.52%
66. Alki - 78.51%
67. Fauntleroy - 78.08%
68. Broadview - 77.54%
69. North Beacon Hill - 77.23%
70. Atlantic - 76.84%
71. Columbia City - 76.56%
72. Cedar Park - 76.50%
73. Briarcliff - 76.18%
74. Arbor Heights - 75.13%
75. Bitter Lake - 74.84%
76. Haller Lake - 74.74%
77. Olympic Hills - 73.91%
78. Riverview - 72.11%
79. South Park - 71.12%
80. High Point - 70.92%
81. Pioneer Square - 70.80%
82. South Delridge - 70.36%
83. Pinehurst - 70.16%
84. Highland Park - 69.45%
85. Mid Beacon Hill - 64.70%
86. International District/Yesler Terrace - 64.03%
87. Rainier Beach - 63.22%
88. Brighton/NewHolly - 59.29%
89. Dunlap - 58.22%
90. Rainier View - 57.53%
91. South Beacon Hill/Holly Park - 55.14%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 01, 2012, 05:38:07 AM
Finally, Romney placed third in three high-vote Seattle precincts: two performances behind Stein in the Central District and, amusingly, a loss to Gary Johnson in a Wallingford precinct.

In Seattle, R-74's best performance was 628-11 (98.28%) at a Capitol Hill precinct.  It got rejected in four precincts -- the one including Yesler Terrace, and three in the Rainier Valley.  All were minority-heavy, and two (Yesler Terrace and one in the Holly Park area) were over 60% Reject.  The other two Seattle precincts that Rejected R-71 voted for R-74.

Obama's best Seattle precinct, in the Central District, gave him 96.23%.  This was also Romney's worst, at 1.67%.  Obama lost only one Seattle precinct, the one covering Broadmoor Golf & Country Club, which voted for him in '08 but voted Romney by 13 points.

bgwah noted that Mitt Romney's showing of 13.80% in Seattle is actually less than John McCain's 13.81% from 2008.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on December 01, 2012, 08:24:24 AM
Hey, since i don't have a program that opens zip files, would someone be nice enough to get Obama's numbers in Washington' 1st, 2nd, 7th, 8th and 9th districts so I can update the map?  Thanks.  


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on December 01, 2012, 02:10:10 PM
Did Montlake Park swing to Obama? I don't believe he got over 70% there in 2008. I think Skykomish also swung to Obama.

Also... Silly Viewridge County Club lowering Viewridge's Obama percentage.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 01, 2012, 03:10:48 PM
Did Montlake Park swing to Obama? I don't believe he got over 70% there in 2008. I think Skykomish also swung to Obama.

Sorry, Montlake Park?  Not sure what you mean.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on December 01, 2012, 03:13:14 PM
Did Montlake Park swing to Obama? I don't believe he got over 70% there in 2008. I think Skykomish also swung to Obama.

Sorry, Montlake Park?  Not sure what you mean.

Oops, I wrote that straight out of bed... Mountlake Terrace. lol.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Benj on December 01, 2012, 03:54:12 PM
What's with the pair of anti-gay marriage, anti-marijuana precincts in Shoreline? They really stands out and are the only precincts I see in liberal suburban areas that were opposed to both.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 01, 2012, 03:59:47 PM
Finkbeiner % in Seattle neighborhoods? Precinct map of Chopp v. Sawant? Please please please?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 01, 2012, 04:04:11 PM
Finkbeiner % in Seattle neighborhoods? Precinct map of Chopp v. Sawant? Please please please?

They'll be in my next round.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on December 01, 2012, 04:26:17 PM
Did Montlake Park swing to Obama? I don't believe he got over 70% there in 2008. I think Skykomish also swung to Obama.

Sorry, Montlake Park?  Not sure what you mean.

Oops, I wrote that straight out of bed... Mountlake Terrace. lol.

To answer my own questions, Mountlake Park went from 68.9% Obama to 70.12% Nice. Skykomish went from 66.4% to 69.81%.

Some othern immediate Seattle suburb notes:

Shorline's O percentage decreased by .1 or .2%. Lake Forest Park's fell by about 1%. Bainbridge Island's fell by 2.5%. Tukwila's rose by 2.3%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 01, 2012, 04:40:43 PM
Obama % v. Approve R-74 % (red areas were more Obama, blue more in favor of gay marriage):

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_01_12_12_4_39_05.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 01, 2012, 05:11:15 PM
Obama % v. Yes on I-502 % (red areas were more Obama, blue more in favor of legalizing marijuana):

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_01_12_12_5_09_32.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 01, 2012, 05:40:37 PM
Yes on I-502 (red) vs. Approve R-74 (blue):

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_01_12_12_5_36_31.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on December 01, 2012, 05:52:00 PM
Obama % v. Approve R-74 % (red areas were more Obama, blue more in favor of gay marriage):

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_01_12_12_4_39_05.png)

This map can be used to explain so very much about King county' political landscape/oddities. Beautiful. Thank you!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 01, 2012, 06:05:51 PM
Finkbeiner % in Seattle neighborhoods? Precinct map of Chopp v. Sawant? Please please please?

Chopp v. Sawant:

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_01_12_12_6_02_54.png)

Also, Finkbeiner won several precincts in Capitol Hill and elsewhere in Seattle. I'll have Lt. Governor maps up soon.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 01, 2012, 06:14:12 PM
What's with the pair of anti-gay marriage, anti-marijuana precincts in Shoreline? They really stands out and are the only precincts I see in liberal suburban areas that were opposed to both.

Christian retirement home.

Looks like Mountlake Terrace was 68.95%-29.11% in 2008 and 70.13%-27.28%.  Actually a notable swing there.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 01, 2012, 06:19:16 PM
Lt. Governor:
() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_01_12_12_6_16_53.png)

Finkbeiner % in Seattle:
() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_01_12_12_6_17_45.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 01, 2012, 06:44:01 PM
Thanks as always, RI.

Looks like Finkbeiner broke 40% on Cap Hill.  Some big swings in that race -- Finkbeiner outperformed Romney by 37 percentage points on Cap Hill, 33 in Georgetown and the Central District, and 32 in Fremont.  Both Cap Hill and the Central District cast about eight times as many votes for Finkbeiner as for Romney.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Sbane on December 01, 2012, 07:27:21 PM
Why did Finkbeiner do so well in King County? He didn't seem to do that well as compared to other Democrats in other parts of the state.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 01, 2012, 07:54:51 PM
Why did Finkbeiner do so well in King County? He didn't seem to do that well as compared to other Democrats in other parts of the state.

He's more liberal on social issues (abortion, drug law, and arguably gay rights) than the incumbent Democrat.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 01, 2012, 08:25:52 PM
The Obama vs. R-74 map is a racial map. Not that it's surprising, but it's almost too perfect of a match...

Why did Finkbeiner do so well in King County? He didn't seem to do that well as compared to other Democrats in other parts of the state.

He was the only Republican endorsed by The Stranger.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Sbane on December 01, 2012, 09:52:02 PM
The Obama vs. R-74 map is a racial map. Not that it's surprising, but it's almost too perfect of a match...

I don't think that is true of north King County. Which is why it was surprising to me...but if you look at maps of Snohomish and suburban Pierce county, it makes sense.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 03, 2012, 11:30:54 AM
Statewide precinct map for President here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=165333.msg3541557#msg3541557 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=165333.msg3541557#msg3541557)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 04, 2012, 09:31:54 AM
Any chance of King County maps for Governor and Senator? :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 04, 2012, 11:30:01 PM
R-74 statewide map is up.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 05, 2012, 12:15:45 AM
The 47th LD recount was today. The Republican gained one vote, the Democrat none. GOP victory.

The 17th LD State Senate recount should be finished tomorrow. On Thursday they'll start the one for the State House seat.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 05, 2012, 01:57:44 AM
Do we know which party will control the State Senate yet?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 05, 2012, 02:07:35 AM
No; neither Sheldon nor Tom have indicated anything definitive. Last heard from Sheldon was a statement indicating his appreciation at being nominated for PPT (though there was no commitment from him to vote for the arrangement). Schoesler, the new Republican leader, has indicated he likes the coalition idea.

We may get some clarity tomorrow once Benton's victory is confirmed. Or we could be waiting until mid-January.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on December 05, 2012, 05:06:09 AM
Do a lot of minorities(residents of Central District) read the Stranger? Seems like some of the results here would suggest that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 05, 2012, 01:03:24 PM
No. I don't see how you could have possibly come to that conclusion. Are you mixing up Capitol Hill and the Central District?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 05, 2012, 01:12:54 PM
No; neither Sheldon nor Tom have indicated anything definitive. Last heard from Sheldon was a statement indicating his appreciation at being nominated for PPT (though there was no commitment from him to vote for the arrangement). Schoesler, the new Republican leader, has indicated he likes the coalition idea.

We may get some clarity tomorrow once Benton's victory is confirmed. Or we could be waiting until mid-January.

I wonder if this will shed any light on the situation: http://capitolhillseattle.com/2012/12/05/murray-to-announce-whether-hell-enter-seattle-mayor-race-today-on-capitol-hill


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 05, 2012, 01:40:15 PM
That seems a pretty good indicator Murray doesn't think he'll end up Majority Leader.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on December 05, 2012, 01:50:03 PM
You probably guessed I would say this from my username, but you guys out in Washington state must have nothing better to do than to sit around the house, get high, and watch the tube.

Not every Washington poster voted to legalize marijuana.
Yeah, but a majority of you did.  I would love your state if it weren't for your backwards social policies.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 05, 2012, 02:27:44 PM
You probably guessed I would say this from my username, but you guys out in Washington state must have nothing better to do than to sit around the house, get high, and watch the tube.

Not every Washington poster voted to legalize marijuana.
Yeah, but a majority of you did.  I would love your state if it weren't for your backwards social policies.

Instead of condescending to us and assuming our vote was based on personally enjoying marijuana, how about you present an argument for why it's a bad policy?  I've already presented one (albeit in little detail) for why I voted yes.  Or is logically defending your position more "backward" than just moralizing?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 05, 2012, 03:24:35 PM
That seems a pretty good indicator Murray doesn't think he'll end up Majority Leader.

Yeah...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on December 06, 2012, 07:21:51 PM
You probably guessed I would say this from my username, but you guys out in Washington state must have nothing better to do than to sit around the house, get high, and watch the tube.

Not every Washington poster voted to legalize marijuana.
Yeah, but a majority of you did.  I would love your state if it weren't for your backwards social policies.

Instead of condescending to us and assuming our vote was based on personally enjoying marijuana, how about you present an argument for why it's a bad policy?  I've already presented one (albeit in little detail) for why I voted yes.  Or is logically defending your position more "backward" than just moralizing?
Marijuana has been proven to be a gateway to using other drugs.  I had a cousin who died from a heroin addiction, so I know just how destructive drug abuse can be.  And as for gay marriage, I support equal rights for homosexual couples, but don't redefine marraige to do that.  Call it a "civil union" and give them the rights, but don't be changing a religious definition.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bedstuy on December 06, 2012, 08:25:05 PM
Marijuana has been proven to be a gateway to using other drugs. 

No, that has not been proven.  Perhaps, there's a statistical correlation but correlation does not equal causation.  No study has come close to showing that marijuana use causes hard drug use. 

And as for gay marriage, I support equal rights for homosexual couples, but don't redefine marraige to do that.  Call it a "civil union" and give them the rights, but don't be changing a religious definition.

How does changing the law change the religious definition?  We have a separation of church and state and ultimately, nobody can force you to support gay marriage.  And really, if it's the same in everything but name, doesn't that imply gay people's relationships are lesser compared to "real" marriages. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on December 06, 2012, 10:18:20 PM
Marijuana has been proven to be a gateway to using other drugs. 

No, that has not been proven.  Perhaps, there's a statistical correlation but correlation does not equal causation.  No study has come close to showing that marijuana use causes hard drug use. 

And as for gay marriage, I support equal rights for homosexual couples, but don't redefine marraige to do that.  Call it a "civil union" and give them the rights, but don't be changing a religious definition.

How does changing the law change the religious definition?  We have a separation of church and state and ultimately, nobody can force you to support gay marriage.  And really, if it's the same in everything but name, doesn't that imply gay people's relationships are lesser compared to "real" marriages. 
I might get to pot later, but by sanctioning "gay marriage" you are violating the religious beliefs of those who do not recognize that as a marriage.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 06, 2012, 10:24:57 PM
Marijuana has been proven to be a gateway to using other drugs. 

No, that has not been proven.  Perhaps, there's a statistical correlation but correlation does not equal causation.  No study has come close to showing that marijuana use causes hard drug use. 

And as for gay marriage, I support equal rights for homosexual couples, but don't redefine marraige to do that.  Call it a "civil union" and give them the rights, but don't be changing a religious definition.

How does changing the law change the religious definition?  We have a separation of church and state and ultimately, nobody can force you to support gay marriage.  And really, if it's the same in everything but name, doesn't that imply gay people's relationships are lesser compared to "real" marriages. 
I might get to pot later, but by sanctioning "gay marriage" you are violating the religious beliefs of those who do not recognize that as a marriage.

My religious beliefs don't recognize a union between a man and a woman as a marriage. I guess we'll need to change the law because now it's violating my religious beliefs.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on December 06, 2012, 11:31:15 PM
Marijuana has been proven to be a gateway to using other drugs. 

No, that has not been proven.  Perhaps, there's a statistical correlation but correlation does not equal causation.  No study has come close to showing that marijuana use causes hard drug use. 

And as for gay marriage, I support equal rights for homosexual couples, but don't redefine marraige to do that.  Call it a "civil union" and give them the rights, but don't be changing a religious definition.

How does changing the law change the religious definition?  We have a separation of church and state and ultimately, nobody can force you to support gay marriage.  And really, if it's the same in everything but name, doesn't that imply gay people's relationships are lesser compared to "real" marriages. 
I might get to pot later, but by sanctioning "gay marriage" you are violating the religious beliefs of those who do not recognize that as a marriage.

Just out of curiosity, Oldiesfreak, do you have the number 1854 in your username because that's the year you are living in?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Cobbler on December 07, 2012, 05:46:01 AM
Marijuana has been proven to be a gateway to using other drugs. 

No, that has not been proven.  Perhaps, there's a statistical correlation but correlation does not equal causation.  No study has come close to showing that marijuana use causes hard drug use. 

And as for gay marriage, I support equal rights for homosexual couples, but don't redefine marraige to do that.  Call it a "civil union" and give them the rights, but don't be changing a religious definition.

How does changing the law change the religious definition?  We have a separation of church and state and ultimately, nobody can force you to support gay marriage.  And really, if it's the same in everything but name, doesn't that imply gay people's relationships are lesser compared to "real" marriages. 
I might get to pot later, but by sanctioning "gay marriage" you are violating the religious beliefs of those who do not recognize that as a marriage.

In the eyes of the government, all unions between two people should be the same, including called the same thing. Whether you prefer them all to be called marriage, or all called civil unions, they need the same name officially. Otherwise, that implies that they aren't equal.

And as for marijuana, there is no reason to assume its a gateway drug. Plenty of people have tried it, including presidents, and they're just fine.

Our state is a model in terms of letting people live in a tolerant, open environment. There is nothing socially backward about that.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on December 07, 2012, 06:19:25 AM
Churches are not forced to perform or recognize marriages they do not wish to under the Washington law.  But they don't get to dictate to the rest of us what goes on outside of their chapel doors.

Putting same-sex couples in a separate class of civil unions is a version of the "separate but equal" argument in Plessy v. Ferguson.  It was later correctly declared unconstitutional.




Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on December 07, 2012, 07:58:28 AM
Churches are not forced to perform or recognize marriages they do not wish to under the Washington law.  But they don't get to dictate to the rest of us what goes on outside of their chapel doors.

Putting same-sex couples in a separate class of civil unions is a version of the "separate but equal" argument in Plessy v. Ferguson.  It was later correctly declared unconstitutional.
The only thing that would be separate is the term used to describe it.  For me, it's a languge issues, not a civil rights issue.  And besides, all laws "discriminate" against somebody.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: afleitch on December 07, 2012, 10:40:20 AM
I might get to pot later, but by sanctioning "gay marriage" you are violating the religious beliefs of those who do not recognize that as a marriage.

Is recognising divorce in law violating the religious beliefs of those who don't recognise divorce? Or does having divorce allow people to get one having no impact on those who don't believe in it?

Is recognising the second (or third or fourth or fifth...) marriage of divorcees violating the religious beliefs of those who don't recognise the rights of divorcees to marry, like the Catholic Church? Or does having this right to re-marry allow people to have one recognised by the state, have one in their church if their church sanctions them or not have them if their church does not sanction them?

Surely recognising same sex marriage allows those who want them to get them from the state, to get them from their church if their church sanctions them (and many do) or to not get them if their church does not sanction them?

Why do you oppose the rights of churches to marry same sex couples if they wish?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on December 07, 2012, 01:23:05 PM
Churches are not forced to perform or recognize marriages they do not wish to under the Washington law.  But they don't get to dictate to the rest of us what goes on outside of their chapel doors.

Putting same-sex couples in a separate class of civil unions is a version of the "separate but equal" argument in Plessy v. Ferguson.  It was later correctly declared unconstitutional.
The only thing that would be separate is the term used to describe it.  For me, it's a languge issues, not a civil rights issue.  And besides, all laws "discriminate" against somebody.

100% the same or nothing. I'm not sure you realize this, but those are the options. Oh, wait. No. There's only one option: 100% the same.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Cobbler on December 07, 2012, 02:51:03 PM
Churches are not forced to perform or recognize marriages they do not wish to under the Washington law.  But they don't get to dictate to the rest of us what goes on outside of their chapel doors.

Putting same-sex couples in a separate class of civil unions is a version of the "separate but equal" argument in Plessy v. Ferguson.  It was later correctly declared unconstitutional.
The only thing that would be separate is the term used to describe it.  For me, it's a languge issues, not a civil rights issue.  And besides, all laws "discriminate" against somebody.

Why should the government give them separate names if they are equal? Just because some people have religious views that say that it can only be "one man, one woman" doesn't mean the government should inefficiently label them as separate names.

My opinion is if it looks like a marriage and sounds like a marriage, call it a marriage. Either that or the government calls all heterosexual marriages "civil unions", but since marriage is the more common term, I'd say it would be easier to call it marriage.


If you don't see them as the same thing religiously, good for you. But the government is not a church, and should not distinguish between the two.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 07, 2012, 04:38:34 PM
Marijuana has been proven to be a gateway to using other drugs.  I had a cousin who died from a heroin addiction, so I know just how destructive drug abuse can be.

I'm sorry for the loss of your cousin.  But I'm a 22-year-old who lives in a city -- do you really think I've never known a drug addict?  Drug addiction is a horrible disease and we all know it.  However, there are two questions here before we can make the jump to prohibition:

1. Does pot substantively contribute enough to drug addiction to justify prohibition?

2. Is the prohibition system the most effective means of combating drug addiction?

You seem to be convinced #1 is true.  I'm not sure why.  I've read the studies on marijuana as a gateway drug.  Most heavy drug users have been, or are, marijuana users.  However, that's not entirely surprising; heavy drug users tend to use all forms of drugs, and nearly all of them smoke cigarettes.  The question is whether causality exists.  You seem convinced it does.  Why?  I've read quite a few studies on this subject, and the consensus seems to be that there isn't a strong indication of causality.  Why do you disagree?

Since establishing #1 is a necessary condition to even engage #2, we'll hold off on #2 for now.

And as for gay marriage, I support equal rights for homosexual couples, but don't redefine marraige to do that.  Call it a "civil union" and give them the rights, but don't be changing a religious definition.

Churches are not forced to recognize gay marriages.  Individuals are forced to contribute to the tax base that includes gay couples...although that would be true under civil unions and domestic partnerships, and you support that.  So, if this is a substantive and not a language issue, I'm not sure what you're arguing.

If it's a language issue, your argument is pretty scary.  There were (and are) people with sincerely-held religious beliefs against interracial marriage.  Should we avoid the government calling interracial marriage "marriages" because of this?  This argument seems to obligate that the government not enforce any policies, in name or in substance, that might offend some individuals' religious beliefs.  Is that seriously the position you want to take as someone so gung-ho about racial civil rights?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on December 07, 2012, 05:41:56 PM
The only thing that would be separate is the term used to describe it.  For me, it's a languge issues, not a civil rights issue.  And besides, all laws "discriminate" against somebody.

Unfortunately, this is not the case. In New Jersey, a state that has civil unions, a number of companies and insurers are playing "language" games, refusing to offer benefits to gay partners because they're not married -- merely civilly united. They're not supposed to discriminate that way, but the fact that there's no federal law means it's in businesses' best interest to try and see if they can get away with it.

Separate but equal has literally always failed the "equal" test.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 07, 2012, 10:32:21 PM
Marijuana legalization by city:

1. Seattle - 74.28%
2. Port Townsend - 73.82%
3. Langley - 70.10%
4. Bainbridge Island - 69.71%
5. Bingen - 68.14%
6. La Conner - 67.44%
7. Bellingham - 66.92%
8. Nespelem - 66.00%
9. Lake Forest Park - 65.85%
10. Friday Harbor - 64.09%
11. Index - 63.54%
12. Olympia - 63.40%
12. South Prairie - 62.98%
13. Rockford - 62.83%
14. Twisp - 62.77%
15. Leavenworth - 62.76%
...
273. Harrah - 36.67%
274. Granger - 36.65%
275. Mesa - 36.36%
276. Hartline - 35.21%
277. Kahlotus - 34.67%
278. Rosalia - 34.39%
279. Almira - 33.33%
280. Warden - 33.03%
281. Royal City - 31.45%
282. Lynden - 30.60%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 07, 2012, 10:37:41 PM
Leavenworth? That surprises me, though I guess I don't really have any idea what sort of people actually live there. How did it vote for President?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 07, 2012, 10:54:21 PM
Leavenworth? That surprises me, though I guess I don't really have any idea what sort of people actually live there. How did it vote for President?

Obama 59%, Romney 38%

Referendum 74 was 60% Approved


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on December 08, 2012, 01:26:03 AM
What's really interesting is that South Prairie is so high up there. That's a small town in rural Pierce County, I believe.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on December 08, 2012, 02:03:51 AM
Interesting that Whitman voted for both Gay Marriage and Pot Legalization...

And then went for Romney.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 08, 2012, 02:10:29 AM
Interesting that Whitman voted for both Gay Marriage and Pot Legalization...

And then went for Romney.

It even went for Baumgartner.  It looks like there were a lot of straight-ticket Republican students in Pullman who voted for R-74.  Similar patterns in Bellingham (WWU) and Seattle (UW.)  The most extreme example was a Pullman precinct that gave Baumgartner 41%, but only voted 15% Reject on R-74.

(Students didn't vote that overwhelmingly for pot legalization, but it gained more Republican votes outside of Pullman than it lost Dems vote inside of it.  That was good enough for a win.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on December 08, 2012, 02:08:18 PM
There were some places that supported gay marriage more than pot, but were there places that were against pot more than they were against gay marriage?

In other words what locations voted more No for R72 than No for R502?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 08, 2012, 04:16:17 PM
There were some places that supported gay marriage more than pot, but were there places that were against pot more than they were against gay marriage?

In other words what locations voted more No for R72 than No for R502?

Good question.  There weren't many places where this happened.  Some subdevelopment precincts.  Parts of Richland.  Some seniors-only communities.  No significant geographical area did this consistently, but the outer-ring Vancouver subdevelopments rejected both by about the same margin, and pot didn't fare much better than gay marriage in the Eastern Washington Hispanic enclaves.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 08, 2012, 08:09:06 PM
http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019857998_voters08m.html

Local conservatives display a mind-boggling amount of ignorance and arrogance in response to the legalization of gay marriage and marijuana.

But hey, why should I be bothered? If they want to give me another 32 years of Democratic victories, then I won't complain. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 10, 2012, 12:44:29 AM
NPR reporter tweets:

Quote
Dem. State Sen. Tim Sheldon confirms he will attend a press conference at the Capitol Monday morning with Republicans.

sigh


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: krazen1211 on December 10, 2012, 02:27:26 PM
http://mynorthwest.com/174/2135457/2-Dems-to-work-with-GOP-to-control-state-Senate

Two Democrats in the Washington state Senate abandoned their caucus Monday, vowing to work with Republicans to control the chamber and push conservative budgeting principles.

Democratic Sens. Rodney Tom of Bellevue and Tim Sheldon of Potlatch said the bipartisan cooperation would drive better policies. Under the new plan, Republicans will chair six committees, including the panel that controls the state budget. Democrats will control another six committees while the parties will co-chair three others.


Good news.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 10, 2012, 02:27:48 PM
It happened: Rodney Tom will be Majority Leader, Tim Sheldon will be PPT. 6 Republican Chairs, 6 Democratic Chairs and 3 co-chairs.

Democrats get to appoint their own six chairs (Natural Resources, Agriculture, Trade and Economic Development, Financial Institutions, Higher Education, Environment)

Republican chairs are:
- Andy Hill, Ways and Means (gets to write the budget)
- Janéa Holmquist Newbry, Commerce and Labor
- Steve Litzow, K-12 Education
- Pam Roach, Government Operations (!!!)
- Mike Padden, Law and Justice
- Randi Becker, Healthcare

Co-Chaired committees are Human Services (Mike Carrell and a D), Transportation (Curtis King and a D) and Energy and Telecommunications (Kirk Ericksen and a D).


Awful. Just awful.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 10, 2012, 02:30:12 PM
- Pam Roach, Government Operations (!!!)

hahahah oh god oh god oh god


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on December 10, 2012, 02:40:33 PM

Of all committees, why would they give her that one!? In fact, how in the world does she have enough power to get herself on as a chair?

Poo. That's all I have to say. I forsee gridlock in Washington's future.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Holmes on December 10, 2012, 02:56:45 PM
But krazen said that's good news.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 10, 2012, 03:21:15 PM
I think it was just as wrong back then as it is now, but this has actually happened once before: After the 1962 elections Democrats held 50-48 majority in the State House. Dan Evans and Slade Gorton, who were members of the State House at the time, convinced a half-dozen or so Democrats to join with Republicans and installed a conservative Democrat from Spokane as Speaker of the House.

Then began the epic redistricting battle between Gorton and a young Democratic State Senate aide named Dean Foster, a battle which would continue for the next 50 years...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 10, 2012, 11:43:49 PM
Thinking about this more, I suspect Roach threatened to bolt unless they gave her that chairmanship. She also got her caucus privileges reinstated. By giving her both of those things, there's nothing the Democrats could realistically enchant her with to draw her to vote with them (unless she wanted to be Majority Leader or PPT, but that was probably too unpalatable even if majority control hung in the balance).

Perhaps the Democrats should see if Steve Litzow wants to be Majority Leader though :D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 10, 2012, 11:49:58 PM
Thinking about this more, I suspect Roach threatened to bolt unless they gave her that chairmanship. She also got her caucus privileges reinstated. By giving her both of those things, there's nothing the Democrats could realistically enchant her with to draw her to vote with them (unless she wanted to be Majority Leader or PPT, but that was probably too unpalatable even if majority control hung in the balance).

Perhaps the Democrats should see if Steve Litzow wants to be Majority Leader though :D

Roach even talked about being the 25th vote earlier this year when the Republicans took over the budget and how she used it to let make them let her back in.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 11, 2012, 01:20:11 AM
Thinking about this more, I suspect Roach threatened to bolt unless they gave her that chairmanship. She also got her caucus privileges reinstated. By giving her both of those things, there's nothing the Democrats could realistically enchant her with to draw her to vote with them (unless she wanted to be Majority Leader or PPT, but that was probably too unpalatable even if majority control hung in the balance).

Perhaps the Democrats should see if Steve Litzow wants to be Majority Leader though :D

Roach even talked about being the 25th vote earlier this year when the Republicans took over the budget and how she used it to let make them let her back in.

Ah, now that you mention it I do remember that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on December 11, 2012, 02:07:04 AM
Can't democrats get one of the Republicans to caucus with them? Like the one from Walla Walla, she voted for gay marriage.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 11, 2012, 02:17:37 AM
The few suspects who might be vulnerable to something like that were given plum committee chairmanships in the coalition. They have no motivation for switching over.

The one from Walla Walla is in the State House.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 11, 2012, 07:35:04 PM
President and Governor results by LD: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsXAV_drKEX_dHBjSmRLV0JYTFIyanBOX0k3eEdXenc

Not a whole lot of surprises here. Obama outperformed Inslee by the most in the Eastside LDs (the 41st by 11%, the 45th and 48th by 9%, the 5th by 8%). Inslee didn't outperform Obama anywhere but came closest in the Tri-Cities and the Yakima Valley (less than 1% under Obama in the 8th and the 16th and less than 2% in the 9th and the 15th). 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 11, 2012, 08:11:31 PM
Republicans in Obama/Inslee LDs: Rep. Linda Kochmar (30)

Republicans in Obama LDs: Rep. Jay Rodne and Rep. Chad Magendanz (5), Senator Barbara Bailey, Rep. Norma Smith and Rep. Dave Hayes (10), Sen. Bruce Dammeier and Rep. Hans Zeiger (25), Rep. Jan Angel (26), Sen. Mike Carrell and Rep. Steve O'Ban (28), Rep. Drew MacEwen (35), Sen. Kirk Pearson, Rep. Dan Kristiansen and Rep. Elizabeth Scott (39), Sen. Steve Litzow (41), Sen. Doug Ericksen, Rep. Jason Overstreet and Rep. Vincent Buys (42), Rep. Mike Hope (44), Sen. Andy Hill (45), Sen. Joe Fain and Rep. Mark Hargrove (47)

Democrats in McKenna LDs: Sen. Mark Mullet (5), Rep. Dawn Morrell (25), Derek Kilmer's replacement in the Senate and Rep. Larry Seaquist (26), Rep. Tami Green (28), Sen. Tim Sheldon and Rep. Kathy Haigh (35), Rep. Marcie Maxwell and Rep. Judy Clibborn (41), Rep. Hans Dunshee (44), Rep. Roger Goodman and Rep. Larry Springer (45), Rep. Pat Sullivan (47)

Democrats in Romney/McKenna LDs: Rep. Monica Stonier (17), Rep. Chris Hurst (31)

For reference, the Obama/McKenna LDs are: 5, 10, 25, 26, 28, 35, 39, 41, 42, 44, 45 and 47


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 11, 2012, 10:34:16 PM
I think it was just as wrong back then as it is now, but this has actually happened once before: After the 1962 elections Democrats held 50-48 majority in the State House. Dan Evans and Slade Gorton, who were members of the State House at the time, convinced a half-dozen or so Democrats to join with Republicans and installed a conservative Democrat from Spokane as Speaker of the House.

Pfft, I already mentioned that. :P

And after the 1980 election, Democrats had a 25-24 majority, but Peter von Reichbauer switched parties, giving Republicans a one seat majority. I don't think he managed to become majority leader, though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 13, 2012, 02:06:02 PM
I thought Sen. Jerome Delvin (R-8th) was going to do the Tim Sheldon routine of serving in both the State Legislature and the County Commission simultaneously, but apparently not. He's resigning which means there will be two solid R vacancies (the other in the 7th): http://www.tri-cityherald.com/2012/11/13/2168948/jerome-delvin-to-serve-in-legislature.html

Kilmer also resigned a few days ago.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 13, 2012, 02:31:25 PM
I thought Sen. Jerome Delvin (R-8th) was going to do the Tim Sheldon routine of serving in both the State Legislature and the County Commission simultaneously, but apparently not. He's resigning which means there will be two solid R vacancies (the other in the 7th): http://www.tri-cityherald.com/2012/11/13/2168948/jerome-delvin-to-serve-in-legislature.html

Kilmer also resigned a few days ago.

Just out of curiosity, how much money does Sheldon make by being a county commissioner?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 13, 2012, 02:36:02 PM
I thought Sen. Jerome Delvin (R-8th) was going to do the Tim Sheldon routine of serving in both the State Legislature and the County Commission simultaneously, but apparently not. He's resigning which means there will be two solid R vacancies (the other in the 7th): http://www.tri-cityherald.com/2012/11/13/2168948/jerome-delvin-to-serve-in-legislature.html

Kilmer also resigned a few days ago.

Just out of curiosity, how much money does Sheldon make by being a county commissioner?

About $80,000 a year.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 13, 2012, 02:56:18 PM
I thought Sen. Jerome Delvin (R-8th) was going to do the Tim Sheldon routine of serving in both the State Legislature and the County Commission simultaneously, but apparently not. He's resigning which means there will be two solid R vacancies (the other in the 7th): http://www.tri-cityherald.com/2012/11/13/2168948/jerome-delvin-to-serve-in-legislature.html

Kilmer also resigned a few days ago.

Just out of curiosity, how much money does Sheldon make by being a county commissioner?

About $80,000 a year.

In addition to his State Senator salary, eh? haha, I can't imagine a liberal getting away with that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on December 13, 2012, 03:06:31 PM
The Pierce County Council gets $108,000 a year. Local government salaries are absurd.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on December 18, 2012, 12:38:19 AM
Quote
In the weeks and months before Adam Lanza tore through an elementary school with an assault rifle and horrified this tight-knit town, his mother was considering moving him to Washington state, said a close family friend.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/nancy-lanza-had-considered-moving-with-her-son-to-wash-state-friend-says/2012/12/16/9c9da4b6-47f3-11e2-ad54-580638ede391_story.html (http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/nancy-lanza-had-considered-moving-with-her-son-to-wash-state-friend-says/2012/12/16/9c9da4b6-47f3-11e2-ad54-580638ede391_story.html)

I feel bad for the people of Newton, but thank goodness for us Mrs. Lanza did not do this.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Jackson on December 18, 2012, 03:29:07 AM
Looks like we dodged a few bullets on that one!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 23, 2012, 04:34:45 PM
http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019965978_rodneytom23m.html

Quote
In fact, Tom views Costco as something of a model for state government. "If you were to sum it up, I'm a Costco guy. My political philosophy is a Costco philosophy. I don't want cheap stuff. I want good quality stuff and I want it at the best price and affordability you can have," he said.

But, Tom says, too often government wants to shop at Nordstrom.

lol


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on December 23, 2012, 06:20:35 PM
Quote
Despite his comfortable life, Tom says, he retains a frugal mindset from his modest upbringing in Bellevue's Eastgate neighborhood.

Lololol. Since when does Eastgate count as a modest neignborhood?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 23, 2012, 06:49:54 PM
Quote
Despite his comfortable life, Tom says, he retains a frugal mindset from his modest upbringing in Bellevue's Eastgate neighborhood.

Lololol. Since when does Eastgate count as a modest neignborhood?

Well, by Eastside standards...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 24, 2012, 11:17:39 PM
Interesting map, and not what I expected:

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 21, 2013, 02:01:25 PM
probably not the right place for this, but...

WE HAVE THE SONICS BACK!!!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Cobbler on January 23, 2013, 02:18:06 PM
probably not the right place for this, but...

WE HAVE THE SONICS BACK!!!

It's about time!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 29, 2013, 06:22:01 AM
Well, it's real quiet in here, so random factoid.  Seattle's precinct 43-1782 is almost entirely the Horizon House retirement home community.  The precinct has an average voter age of 84.  Check out the results:

President: 82% Obama
Governor: 75% Inslee
Gay marriage: 83% Approved
Pot: 80% Yes
Supreme Court: 83% McCloud

There's some seriously liberal old people


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 04, 2013, 09:36:45 PM
http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2013/02/04/about-30-people-apply-for-open-port-of-seattle-seat/

Gregoire's daughter going to get more involved in politics?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on February 06, 2013, 01:51:19 AM
Could someone do an Obama-Cantwell-Inslee precinct comparison of Yakima County?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on March 11, 2013, 12:31:54 AM
So.... This thread was on the second page = not OK.

Anyways how's the whole divided legislative branch thing going?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on March 19, 2013, 11:20:25 PM
We all know, but for those out of state lurkers, former two-term governor and physician-assisted suicide advocate, Booth Gardner died at 76 on the 15th. He was one of Washington's most popular governors and will be missed. RIP.

Here's an article from the NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/19/us/booth-gardner-dies-at-76-ex-washington-governor.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Maxwell on March 19, 2013, 11:34:32 PM
Well, it's real quiet in here, so random factoid.  Seattle's precinct 43-1782 is almost entirely the Horizon House retirement home community.  The precinct has an average voter age of 84.  Check out the results:

President: 82% Obama
Governor: 75% Inslee
Gay marriage: 83% Approved
Pot: 80% Yes
Supreme Court: 83% McCloud

There's some seriously liberal old people

Sounds like my grandparents :P.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 27, 2013, 08:43:54 PM
Figured I'd check this thread out and see if I could get the discussion up and running again.

Though the interesting WA races aren't til 2016 (Patty Murray and Jay Inslee both facing the voters), what are the current thoughts on 2014? Who are potential targets for both parties in the state house or in CDs? (Only Suzan DelBene comes to mind as being a particularly vulnerable incumbent. Most other seats seem safe).

On another note... how do you suppose the Seattle mayoral election will go down?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 27, 2013, 09:04:04 PM
Hopefully McGinn wins. I didn't like him at first but he's grown on me and all of his opponents are awful. We also have a county executive race---I think the only question is whether Constantine hits 70% or not.

Oh, and MEEKER, we need a '13 thread title. Something making fun of Rodney Tom, perhaps?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on April 27, 2013, 09:26:15 PM
I'm almost 100% certain that, barring retirements, Washington's congressional delegation will remain the same until next redistricting. DelBene can survive, and unless Reichert or JHB tries to take on Murray or Inslee, there won't be any competitive seats.


All of the action will be focused on Democrats trying to primary Rodney Tom and Tim Sheldon.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: greenforest32 on April 28, 2013, 04:40:56 AM
Is that 4,000 post limit per thread still being enforced or what? And what happened to Meeker?

----

All of the action will be focused on Democrats trying to primary Rodney Tom and Tim Sheldon.

What are their districts like? A primary to them is going to be hard now that Washington has the jungle-primary/top-two system.

Also like you mentioned in the best/worse state parties thread about Kim Wyman being the only statewide elected Republican on the West Coast: what is she like? Would she oppose implementing automatic voter registration?

Compare the Republican Secretary of State in Colorado crying armageddeon on the Democratic state legislature proposing/passing election-day registration to the Democratic Secretary of State in Oregon introducing a bill to implement automatic registration (something that puts election-day registration to shame). I know the WA-GOP Secretary of States aren't known for being hacks but I think a Democrat would be more likely to support automatic voter registration there than some neutral-administrator-ish Republican.

Oregon and Washington really should join up on pushing for this as we're the only two postal voting states :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 28, 2013, 06:59:52 AM
Sheldon has been doing the conservative Democrat thing for a long time now. His district knows that and has re-elected him numerous times anyway. If we had a partisan primary he would be in trouble, but we don't so he's probably fine. He only won his last bid as Mason County commissioner 54-46 against another Democrat, though. He beat the same woman 63-37 in 2008. So perhaps his popularity is declining. I'm guessing he'll be re-elected.

Tom will have a tougher time. The incumbent Democratic state representative in his district got something like 69% last year. The open seat was won by a Democrat 61-39. Obama won 61-35. Even Inslee won 53-47. I'm guessing he will lose if he runs again.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 06, 2013, 10:05:52 PM
I don't know much about Wyman, but I doubt opposing something like that would do much to help her politically in a state as liberal as WA


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on May 07, 2013, 05:24:23 PM
Hi guys, since this thread has a high concentration of fellow Washington posters, I thought I might leave this little tidbit here:

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on May 11, 2013, 05:06:49 AM
Be in awe!!!! :D ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 18, 2013, 10:47:54 AM
Filing deadline was yesterday!

With Burgess dropping out, it is looking like McGinn vs Murray for Seattle Mayor, with Harrell and Steinbrueck as second tier candidates.

Constantine has no serious opposition and will continue to focus on running for Governor in 2020. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on May 29, 2013, 03:21:55 PM
Republican State-Sen. Mike Carrell is dead, triggering a special election.


SD-28 is basically the Tacoma suburbs, and Obama got 54.4% here in 2012. This is a prime pick-up for Democrats, and will dismantle the Tomocracy assuming we hold SD-26.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on May 30, 2013, 03:54:32 AM
Republican State-Sen. Mike Carrell is dead, triggering a special election.


SD-28 is basically the Tacoma suburbs, and Obama got 54.4% here in 2012. This is a prime pick-up for Democrats, and will dismantle the Tomocracy assuming we hold SD-26.

Well, as i have read on DKE - election in SD-28 will be held in 2014 (until then - republican appointment) and keeping SD-26 (especially in non-presidential year) may be tall order..


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on June 06, 2013, 10:29:00 PM
If the D's could hold SD-26 in 2010, they can hold it in 2014. Granted, I'm not sure how significantly different it was redrawn from the old map and if Schlichter is as good of a politician as Kilmer.

SD-28 should be a pickup OPPORTUNITY, as should a handful of other seats:

-SD-41 is south Bellevue and Mercer Island and parts of Renton; D's at least have a fighting chance here, especially with a conservative-inclined candidate
-SD-42 includes most of Bellingham, but also northern Whatcom County. Fighting chance here too.

Tom, of course, is vulnerable in a primary and you can bet the D's will spend hard to oust him here. Those are the only three pickups I can think of. Not sure where on the map there's a vulnerable D outside of the Olympic Peninsula and maybe Andy Billig in Spokane.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on June 07, 2013, 01:26:42 AM
If the D's could hold SD-26 in 2010, they can hold it in 2014. Granted, I'm not sure how significantly different it was redrawn from the old map and if Schlichter is as good of a politician as Kilmer.

SD-28 should be a pickup OPPORTUNITY, as should a handful of other seats:

-SD-41 is south Bellevue and Mercer Island and parts of Renton; D's at least have a fighting chance here, especially with a conservative-inclined candidate
-SD-42 includes most of Bellingham, but also northern Whatcom County. Fighting chance here too.

Tom, of course, is vulnerable in a primary and you can bet the D's will spend hard to oust him here. Those are the only three pickups I can think of. Not sure where on the map there's a vulnerable D outside of the Olympic Peninsula and maybe Andy Billig in Spokane.

The Olympic Peninsula is safe so long as Hargrove doesn't retire. He's popular around here, and even the ultra-liberals like myself who hate the way he votes on social issues realize that he's one of the few who can hold the seat.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on June 07, 2013, 12:23:36 PM
Litzow (41) won't be up again until 2016.

Hill (45) could potentially be vulnerable, but he's been unoffensive and a good match for the Eastside on social issues, so I would expect him to be re-elected.

Tom (48) is definitely vulnerable. His district is actually fairly liberal, and even voted for Inslee by six points.

Republicans will be favored in 26 with Angel running, IMO. They will get this seat in the special later this year.

28 will be a good pick-up opportunity for Democrats, but Carrell died late enough in the year to avoid a special in 2013.

So I would guess that the Senate will go to 26-23 R later this year. Democrats will have to take the 28th and 48th to have a chance of re-taking it in 2014. And of course this is all very pre-mature, there will be specific races that we don't recognize as competitive until the election nears... :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on June 07, 2013, 10:47:57 PM
My bad on SD-41 - I read on Wikipedia that Litzow was "first elected" in 2010.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on July 18, 2013, 02:24:43 AM
Is anyone paying attention to the Seattle Mayoral primary?

For those who need brushing up: http://apps.seattletimes.com/elections/2013/mayoral-race-2013/


I for one like Ed Murray and Peter Steinbrueck. I really like Gray, but she doesn't stand a chance.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on July 18, 2013, 05:55:00 PM
Is anyone paying attention to the Seattle Mayoral primary?

For those who need brushing up: http://apps.seattletimes.com/elections/2013/mayoral-race-2013/

Peter Steinbrueck.


Ermm, eww.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 21, 2013, 09:13:04 PM
I voted McGinn.  Steinbrueck is a NIMBY, although I'm impressed that he manages to own a $170,000 property in Ravenna, because I didn't know such a thing existed.

It's kind of funny, but among the actually viable candidates, the ones who seem the most personally likable are the ones whose policies I like the least. 

Edit: Also, this is by far the most awkward part of the Seattle Times candidate guide...

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 06, 2013, 06:57:24 PM
Seriously, what's happened to us?  Even for a terribly boring local primary season, this thread is dead.

My bet on the Seattle Mayor's race: considering that it's an essentially four-way race, I feel it's pretty likely that Murray makes it to first.  My bet would be second for McGinn right now.  I think Harrell has had a good period lately, and may do surprisingly well among undecideds, but his core demographics have pretty terrible primary turnout.  Steinbrueck just doesn't have much of a field/media campaign going, and I'm not sold on the narrative he has the senior vote locked up.

I think Murray is really the only candidate right now who's hitting it on poll numbers, fundraising, voter contact, and demographic turnout.  North Capitol Hill currently has the highest turnout in the city, which isn't unusual, but I think underscores that Murray has some primary turnout advantages.  Then again, the highest-turnout precincts are largely retirement homes, and turnout among seniors is outpacing turnout among young voters by more than usual.  I think the worst news there is actually for McGinn.  Highly progressive, middle-class areas have really lethargic turnout.  Rainier Beach actually has a higher turnout rate than the inner Ballard suburbs right now.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on August 06, 2013, 07:13:53 PM
I'm thinking McGinn continues the Seattle tradition of Mayors not surviving the primary.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 06, 2013, 08:34:55 PM
I think that's pretty possible...who are you thinking, Steinbrueck or Harrell?  I think there are sane arguments for both to come in 2nd.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 06, 2013, 10:19:45 PM
Murray and MGinn to advance to general. A fairly predictable result, IMO.

30.24% Murray
27.15% McGinn
16.26% Steinbrueck
15.48% Harrell

The next Democratic candidate for Governor, Dow Constantine, is dominating the county executive race with 76%.

And in a shocker, decades-long city councilman Don Davidson is in third place in his Bellevue city council race behind two progressives. The margin is small enough he could maybe creep up to second, but Robinson is close to 50%. It's looking like the conservative majority will finally fall. Unfortunately Wallace is in first in his race, leading Kasner 46-42. At least this one will be close.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on August 06, 2013, 10:35:13 PM
I think Murray beats McGinn in the general. I'm assuming all of Harrell's and Steinbrueck's support moves over to him.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 07, 2013, 12:22:13 AM
Socialist Kshama Sawant had a pretty impressive result (and Brian Carver a pretty terrible one) in the Seattle City Council race.  33% for a socialist in a low-turnout, citywide primary, with a split in the anti-Conlin vote!

At National Night Out tonight, a drunk middle-aged guy accosted me for voting for McGinn (he voted Steinbrueck) and asked if I was "one of those bicycle types."  It was beautiful.

Edit: Oh, also joining McGinn in the probably-screwed category is Nathan Schlitchlgermansomethingter in the 26th, not that that's surprising.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on August 07, 2013, 05:53:21 AM
My main problem with McGinn is that while he has good ideas and good policies, he is utterly incapable of putting them in action.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 09, 2013, 03:49:27 AM
Socialist Kshama Sawant had a pretty impressive result (and Brian Carver a pretty terrible one) in the Seattle City Council race.  33% for a socialist in a low-turnout, citywide primary, with a split in the anti-Conlin vote!

A Sawant on the council would be really interesting. I think it'd might even be a good thing.

My vote went/is going for McGinn. I don't dislike Murray, but I'm not convinced he offers anything better than what McGinn does. Most importantly, I know exactly where McGinn stands on mass transit issues and pro-density development (SLU upzoning, microhousing). He has a decent record on both.

I think it'll also be interesting to see how many of the 30,000+ new residents in Seattle vote (since the 2009 election). Do these guys even vote since they probably know little about this new city they live in?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 09, 2013, 11:23:24 PM
Later ballot returns in Seattle have been somewhat more liberal, as usual: McGinn is beating Murray in them (although definitely not by enough to tie up), and Sawant almost tied Conlin in today's batch.

Elsewhere, Nathan Schlicher continues to fade back toward a ten-digit loss.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 09, 2013, 11:41:39 PM
They posted the abstract by LD. Nothing too surprising - McGinn and Harrell doing best in South Seattle, Murray in Central and West Seattle, Steinbrueck in North Seattle.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 10, 2013, 01:17:58 AM
This is very stereotyped, but

Murray
11th LD: 19%
37th LD: 24%
32nd LD: 28%
36th LD: 30%
46th LD: 30%
34th LD: 31%
43rd LD: 35%

No great surprises: Murray seems to have received a lot of the "generic liberal Democrat" vote, with his best performance being the areas you'd expect relatively few Harrell (social justice/minority), McGinn (urbanist), or Steinbrueck (anti-urbanist) voters.  One notable feature: Murray's best district -- although also McGinn's best -- contains the parts of Seattle (Capitol Hill and environs) where both Murray (gay marriage) and McGinn (urbanist) and should play best -- and Murray narrowly won.

McGinn
34th LD: 22%
32nd LD: 23%
46th LD: 24%
36th LD: 28%
37th LD: 29%
43rd LD: 31%
11th LD: 32%

The more suburban the area, the worse McGinn did.  On the other-hand, McGinn appears to have some residual strength among voters in very working-class areas.  Does that mean that McGinn might gain some Harrell voters, or is it just that the "urban pioneer" vote in these areas went heavily McGinn, and the social justice/minority vote will be tougher for him?  These were also some of McGinn's better areas in his first run.

Steinbrueck
46th LD: 20%
36th LD: 18%
32nd LD: 18%
43rd LD: 16%
34th LD: 16%
37th LD: 10%
11th LD: 9%

Poor people didn't vote for Steinbrueck, but it's surprising that the pro-urbanist 43rd was in the middle of the pack, along with suburban West Seattle (both around 16%.)

Harrell
37th: 28%
11th: 28%
32nd: 16%
34th: 16%
46th: 15%
36th: 13%
43rd: 9%

Harrell, naturally, did very well in areas of relatively high minority turnout.  He also seems to have done pretty OK among suburban voters (not surprising, considering his reputation as a nice dude.)  His worst performances simply seem to be where Murray and McGinn racked up votes -- maybe areas where Harrell's relative lack of presence (it was much better outside of the core city) discouraged people voting for him for strategic reasons.

********

Conlin
46th: 54%
32nd: 54%
36th: 51%
34th: 50%
43rd: 45%
37th: 45%
11th: 40%

Colin posted pretty mediocre results citywide, although (predictably) did better in more suburban and wealthy areas.

Sawant
43rd: 40%
11th: 38%
37th: 38%
36th: 31%
46th: 28%
34th: 27%
32nd: 26%

Sawant didn't win any districts outright (the 11th was her closest, 38-40) but she didn't tank anywhere despite the presence of...

Carver
34th: 22%
11th: 21%
32nd: 20%
36th: 17%
46th: 17%
37th: 17%
43rd: 14%

...the also-more-liberal-than-Conlin Brian Carver, who got uniformly crushed by Sawant in every LD (the closest result was 26-20 in the 32nd.)

I'm too lazy to post the boring numbers from the boring Shen/Ishii race, besides to say that it looks like a few conservatives voted for Shen, but mostly the discrepancy in Shen races between LD correlates a lot with the Asian population...as does Ishii, who clearly drained a bit of Shen's "Asian name" vote (he got 15% in the 11th, despite the world's craziest Voter Pamphlet statement.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 10, 2013, 02:01:48 AM
One notable feature: Murray's best district -- although also McGinn's best -- contains the parts of Seattle (Capitol Hill and environs) where both Murray (gay marriage) and McGinn (urbanist) and should play best -- and Murray narrowly won.

Murray representing that district (or a variation of it) for 18 years had something to do with that of course. Would be interesting to see the results in an alternative universe where Murray represented the 46th LD.

My sense is that McGinn will pick up the bulk of Harrell supporters and Murray the bulk of Steinbrueck supporters, but I don't really have much hard data to back it up. I'd put Murray as the favorite to win in November, but I think it's still pretty competitive. Those who have been writing McGinn's obituary for the past few months are sorely mistaken, and hopefully they've realized it based on Tuesday's results.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 10, 2013, 02:10:18 AM
Also, I'm fascinated by the Sawant candidacy. The Stranger support and her 2012 campaign obviously helped her in the 43rd, and I'm sure identity politics played a role (only woman and only person of color in the race), but she still did remarkably well given how little money she spent. And given that she self-identified as a socialist on her doorbelling pieces, which I think is still a net negative (but maybe not?).

If she wins... holy cow I cannot wait to see what the Seattle Times does.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on August 10, 2013, 03:47:46 AM
Also, I'm fascinated by the Sawant candidacy. The Stranger support and her 2012 campaign obviously helped her in the 43rd, and I'm sure identity politics played a role (only woman and only person of color in the race), but she still did remarkably well given how little money she spent. And given that she self-identified as a socialist on her doorbelling pieces, which I think is still a net negative (but maybe not?).

If she wins... holy cow I cannot wait to see what the Seattle Times does.

Most likely? Get butthurt and write an editorial every time she does anything liberal.

What'll be worth watching is just how mad they get.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 10, 2013, 06:04:10 AM
Could Sawant actually win?

I'd love to see a Sawant post-victory Seattle Times rant.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 10, 2013, 12:27:12 PM
Sawant thinks the redevelopment of SLU is a "corporate giveaway," that Seattle needs rent control, that Yesler Terrace's redevelopment is bad, that the ride free area should be brought back, and so on. As a city councilwoman, she would have influence on issues of development and transit. While having a third party member of the city council would be kind of fun from an electoral perspective, she is so wrong on important issues that I would rather see Conlin win.

And Meeker, we are long over-due for a new title.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on August 10, 2013, 01:15:42 PM
There seems to be very little ideological difference between Murray and McGinn (not unusual for a Seattle race).  It may largely come down to a contrast in leadership style -- McGinn is marketing himself as a progressive fighter, while Murray says he is a consensus builder.  And McGinn will get attacked as a bomb-thrower, while Murray will be painted as a tool of the Seattle establishment.

It will be interesting to see what effect, if any, the Whole Foods curveball that McGinn threw into the race will have.  Did that help gin up support for McGinn in the primary?  I think Murray came out the loser in that exchange because he wound up looking like a hypocrite -- never a good place to be.  Still, I think Murray is modestly favored to win.  It seems like McGinn has just made too many enemies.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 10, 2013, 01:47:28 PM
McGinn got 27% on election night in both 2009 and 2013.

           2009   2013   Change
LD11   23.55%   31.72%   8.17%
LD32        -         23.09%       -
LD34   25.78%   22.42%   -3.36%
LD36   28.20%   27.53%   -0.67%
LD37   22.94%   29.10%   6.16%
LD43   30.78%   31.24%   0.46%
LD46   24.14%   23.64%   -0.50%
total     26.58%   27.15%   0.57%

Redistricting reduces the usefulness of this comparison. Nevertheless, the pattern is still clear enough - McGinn lost support in North Seattle, but increased it in the SE.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on August 10, 2013, 03:10:25 PM
Sawant thinks the redevelopment of SLU is a "corporate giveaway," that Seattle needs rent control, that Yesler Terrace's redevelopment is bad, that the ride free area should be brought back, and so on. As a city councilwoman, she would have influence on issues of development and transit. While having a third party member of the city council would be kind of fun from an electoral perspective, she is so wrong on important issues that I would rather see Conlin win.

And Meeker, we are long over-due for a new title.
Amazon should be prevented from building in SLU.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 10, 2013, 03:15:35 PM
I plan to calculate the 2009 results by current LD sometime before November. Will post when I do.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Zioneer on August 10, 2013, 04:01:10 PM
I'm really interested in Sawant's candiacy; the issues she's running on and the way she's promoting them are fascinating. Also the fact that she's an actual socialist (without Bernie Sander's years and years of elected experience) is interesting as well. I haven't been paying much attention to Washington politics since I moved from my birthplace in Kent, Washington in 1999 (when I was 5), but I've been following Sawant running for office since last year.

Also, she's kind of attractive, if I may note that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 11, 2013, 02:59:46 AM
I am certainly intrigued by her candiacy as well. I don't like Conlin, but I also do not support any of her views that bgwah stated. Never read much up on Carver, but I have a feeling he was a good candidate (Missed the primaries). Oh well. (Plus, one of his fliers showed his wife and cute, biracial baby - awww, how could you not vote for that family)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Hnv1 on August 11, 2013, 09:40:02 AM
Kshama Sawant candidacy is making waves all the way across the Atlantic, at least two trotskyists told me about a comrade that they believe is going to be elected 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Asian Nazi on August 13, 2013, 12:48:27 AM
I'm really interested in Sawant's candiacy; the issues she's running on and the way she's promoting them are fascinating. Also the fact that she's an actual socialist (without Bernie Sander's years and years of elected experience) is interesting as well. I haven't been paying much attention to Washington politics since I moved from my birthplace in Kent, Washington in 1999 (when I was 5), but I've been following Sawant running for office since last year.

Also, she's kind of attractive, if I may note that.

I've actually met Sawant before (I'm a member of the same organization that she is).  She's awesome.   I don't think that she's going to win, but I can't even describe how excited I would be if she actually pulled this thing off.  We're also running a candidate in Minneapolis (Ty Moore) and Boston (Seamus Whelan (sp?)).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 14, 2013, 05:27:45 AM
Fun/boring fact: King County recently split off a precinct in Seattle's Pioneer Square, and the downsized precinct (Sea 37-3416) now has a unique distinction.  In this year's primary, 57% of the voters there were registered as homeless.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 14, 2013, 01:08:55 PM
I wonder if it will be Sawant's best precinct? ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 21, 2013, 05:40:43 PM
Today was certification today.  Precinct results out Friday.

Final results:

Seattle mayor
Murray 42,314 (29.85%)
McGinn 40,501 (28.57%)
Steinbrueck 22,913 (16.16%)
Harrell 21,580 (15.22%)
Staadecker 6,288 (4.44%)
McQuaid 2,546 (1.80%)
Kate Martin 2,479 (1.75%)
Mary Martin 1,498 (1.06%)
Gray 1,318 (0.93%)
Write-in 334 (0.24%)

Seattle City Council Pos. 2
Conlin 60,537 (47.74%)
Sawant 44,458 (35.06%)
Carver 21,107 (16.64%)
Write-in 712 (0.56%)

Seattle City Council Pos. 8
O'Brien 74,372 (58.88%)
Shen 43,053 (34.08%)
Ishii 8,137 (6.44%)
Write-in 753 (0.60%)

Dist. 26 State Senator
Angel [R] 15,627 (54.64%)
Schlicher [D] 12,974 (45.36%)

Don Davidson out in Bellevue; Kevin Wallace leads 46%-42%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on August 21, 2013, 05:59:22 PM
Davidson didn't submit anything to the voters' guide, which in retrospect is hilarious.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 23, 2013, 04:59:02 PM
Conlin
1. Laurelhurst - 69.5%
2. View Ridge - 66.7%
3. Washington Park - 66.5%
4. Hawthorne Hills - 66.1%
5. Madison Park - 65.0%
6. Briarcliff - 64.0%
7. Southeast Magnolia - 62.0%
8. Windermere - 61.4%
9. North Stevens (Capitol Hill) - 59.8%
10. West Queen Anne - 59.4%
...
85. Roxhill - 37.8%
86. Interbay/Gilman - 36.9%
87. Stevens (Capitol Hill) - 35.0%
88. Atlantic - 34.5%
89. Pioneer Square - 34.2%
90. Columbia City - 32.3%
91. Central District - 30.4%
92. Broadway (Capitol Hill) - 30.0%
93. Georgetown/SoDo - 29.7%
94. South Park - 29.0%

Sawant
1. Broadway (Capitol Hill) - 57.7%
2. Central District - 56.8%
3. Georgetown/SoDo - 54.9%
4. Stevens (Capitol Hill) - 52.9%
5. Columbia City - 52.3%
6. Madison Valley - 50.3%
7. South Park - 48.8%
8. Atlantic - 48.7%
9. University District - 47.8%
10. Fremont - 46.8%
...
85. Fauntleroy - 22.0%
86. Alki - 21.1%
87. North Beach/Blue Ridge - 20.8%
88. Southeast Magnolia - 20.6%
89. View Ridge - 19.0%
90. Hawthorne Hills - 19.0%
91. Washington Park - 18.7%
92. Madison Park - 16.1%
93. Briarcliff - 15.4%
94. Laurelhurst - 15.2%

Carver
1. Highland Park - 28.2%
2. Interbay/Gilman - 27.3%
3. Roxhill - 26.0%
4. South Delridge - 24.2%
5. West Seattle Junction - 23.6%
6. Riverview - 23.6%
7. International District/Yesler Terrace - 23.1%
8. Westlake - 22.7%
9. Arbor Heights - 22.6%
10. South Park - 22.2%
...
85. Seward Park - 12.8%
86. Bryant - 12.7%
87. Phinney Ridge - 12.7%
88. Leschi - 12.5%
89. Broadway (Capitol Hill) - 12.3%
90. Stevens (Capitol Hill) - 12.1%
91. North Stevens (Capitol Hill) - 11.9%
92. Madison Valley - 11.0%
93. Montlake - 10.2%
94. Madrona - 9.2%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 23, 2013, 05:07:23 PM
Precincts:

Colin best
1. Horizon House Retirement Home (First Hill) - 268/324 = 82.7%
2. Mt. Claire Park (Mt. Baker) - 103/133 = 77.4%
3. 27th Ave W & Armour (Southeast Magnolia) - 89/116 = 76.7%
4. Seattle Tennis Club (Washington Park) - 127/166 = 76.5%
5. Park Shore Condominiums (Madison Park) - 104/136 = 76.5%

Conlin worst
1. Seattle University Rianna Apartments (First Hill) - 5/38 = 13.2%
2. Pratt Fine Arts Center (Atantic) - 18/38 = 17.0%
3. Son Shine Inn (Stevens/Cap Hill) - 36/212 = 17.0%
4. Biltmore Apartments (Broadway/Cap Hill) - 18/102 = 17.6%
5. Jet City Improv (U-District) - 14/75 = 18.7%

***

Sawant best
1. Seattle University Rianna Apartments (First Hill) - 27/38 = 71.1%
2. Biltmore Apartments (Broadway/Cap Hill) - 72/102 = 70.6%
3. Seattle University Connolly Center (First Hill) - 102/148 = 68.9%
4. Madison Church in Christ (Central District) - 145/212 = 68.4%
5. Greek Orthodox Church (Broadway/Cap Hill) - 112/164 = 68.3%

Sawant worst
1. Sand Point Country Club (View Ridge) - 11/166 = 6.6%
2. Park Shore Condominiums (Madison Park) - 11/136 = 8.1%
3. Broadmoor Golf Cub (Madison Park) - 17/201 = 8.5%
4. 42nd Ave W & Viewmont Way (Briarcliff) - 15/170 = 8.8%
5. Seattle Tennis Club (Washington Park) - 15/166 = 9.0%

Not a ton of rhyme nor reason to Carver's performance at the precinct level.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 23, 2013, 05:23:14 PM
Mayor:

Murray
North Broadway (Cap Hill) - 48.0%
North Stevens (Cap Hill) - 44.5%
Washington Park - 42.6%
Portage Bay - 39.5%
Montlake - 39.0%
Downtown - 38.7%
Laurelhurst - 38.1%
East Queen Anne - 37.2%
Broadway (Cap Hill) - 36.8%
West Queen Anne - 36.5%
...
North Beacon Hill - 21.1%
Coumbia City - 20.4%
Rainier Beach - 19.4%
Mid Beacon Hill - 18.0%
Dunlap - 17.9%
Georgetown/SoDo - 17.2%
Brighton - 16.2%
Sand Point - 15.7%
Rainier View - 15.0%
South Beacon Hill - 14.4%

McGinn
Georgetown/SoDo - 49.0%
Broadway (Cap Hill) - 41.9%
Fremont - 41.8%
West Woodland - 41.0%
Greenwood - 40.6%
Pioneer Square - 40.1%
Central District - 38.7%
Columbia City - 38.6%
North Beacon Hill - 38.1%
Ballard - 38.1%
...
Denny-Blaine - 19.7%
Southeast Magnolia - 18.9%
North Broadway (Cap Hill) - 18.8%
Washington Park - 18.4%
Fauntleroy - 18.1%
View Ridge - 17.7%
Alki - 17.2%
Briarcliff - 17.1%
Laurelhurst - 15.8%
Madison Park - 14.1%

Steinbrueck (?!)
South Lake Union - 25.2%
Eastlake - 22.6%
Meadowbrook - 22.5%
View Ridge - 22.4%
Sand Point - 22.0%
West Queen Anne - 21.9%
Lawton Park - 21.0%
Ravenna - 20.9%
Roosevelt - 20.7%
Broadview - 20.7%
...
Central District - 9.4%
North Beacon Hill - 8.9%
Brighton - 8.8%
Mid Beacon Hill - 8.3%
South Beacon Hill - 8.1%
Holly Park/NewHolly - 7.8%
Dunlap - 7.6%
Rainier View - 7.6%
Columbia City - 7.4%
Madison Valley - 7.0%

Harrell
Rainier View - 43.1%
South Beacon Hill - 42.6%
Dunlap - 40.7%
Rainier Beach - 37.1%
Mid Beacon Hill - 33.9%
Brighton - 32.8%
Leschi - 29.2%
Seward Park - 29.2%
Mount Baker - 27.2%
Lakewood - 27.0%
...
West Woodland - 9.7%
Phinney Ridge - 9.1%
Wallingford - 8.8%
Pioneer Square - 8.8%
North Broadway (Cap Hill) - 8.5%
Fremont - 8.0%
Portage Bay - 7.7%
Meridian - 7.5%
Eastlake - 6.8%
Broadway (Cap Hill) - 5.4%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 23, 2013, 05:43:22 PM
Too lazy to compile a full list of best precincts, but:

Murray
Best: 52.8% on a North Broadway precinct.
Worst: 0.0% at a Pioneer Square, mostly for transient voters.  2.9% in a Rainier View precinct.

McGinn
Best: 60.5% at a Pike-Pine precinct in Capitol Hill's Broadway neighborhood.
Worst: 6.2% at a Madison Park precinct.

Steinbrueck
Best: 43.0% by Queen Anne Hill's Kinnear Park.  Most of the runners-up were retirement homes.
Worst: Exactly 1.0% on the NewHolly Neighborhood Campus.  No votes at the University of Washington main precinct, either.

Harrell
Best: 52.9% at a Rainier View precinct.
Worst: 1.0% at a Fremont precinct.

Also, Charlie Staadecker placed second in Broadmoor Country Club with over 20% of the vote -- adorable.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 23, 2013, 08:34:45 PM
Interesting. Thanks for sharing. Mirabella clearly still has a lot of influence over SLU's vote.

So...maps? ;D



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 24, 2013, 05:18:11 AM
I'll get maps as soon as I can -- time-consuming and need new shapefiles, though.

Random other trivial stuff:

Harrell actually won a few neighborhoods -- Beacon Hill, Brighton, Dunlap, Leschi, Rainier Beach, Rainier View, and Seward Park.  He won a few random precincts here and there, even in some random suburban areas.

Steinbrueck won a small handful of precincts in the Ballard suburbs, Magnolia, Queen Anne, the Mirabella Retirement Home (hence the SLU result), and a few around Lake City.  And the rich precinct south of Seward Park, for some reason.

Charlie Staadecker placed second at Broadmoor Golf Club, with over 20% of the vote.  He beat everyone but Murray, and more than doubled McGinn.  No idea why -- Staadecker lives on First Hill.

Dow Constantine's ass-kicking for County Executive was impressive.  I've only looked at Seattle, but he managed 95% of the vote for the entire neighborhood of Madrona in a four-way primary!  He also won 100-1 in a Northeast Seattle precinct.  There were quite a few other precincts where he broke 95%, too.  (His worst in the city was "only" 51% at the main Yesler Terrace precinct.)

Against Mike O'Brien, Albert Shen won only one neighborhood -- Briarcliff -- but won a range of other highly affluent or Asian precincts.  (My precinct was actually a Shen precinct.)  Primary loser David Ishii (obviously insane) also seems to have gotten some bump from having an Asian last name, and also tended to do well in low-education areas.  O'Brien broke 70% on Capitol Hill and in Georgetown, thanks to The Stranger, and broke 50% in the vast majority of areas.

Parks measure got just under 80% in Seattle.  The measure only struggled in Seattle's poorest precincts, although also underperformed in some conservative areas, with a Magnolia condominium precinct delivering a tie (no losses.)  The measure broke 90% in the Broadway neighborhood, where it also had its strongest precinct (81-3).

In the Ports race, Stephanie Bowman won every Seattle precinct.  The only close one was a random one along Lake Washington in Southeast Seattle.  She broke 90% in several Cap Hill precincts.

Our homeless precinct?  49-23 Sawant, 60-21 O'Brien, 49-17 McGinn.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 24, 2013, 05:33:43 PM
Screw adult life, maps coming up tonight.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 24, 2013, 08:42:59 PM
Seattle Mayor
Sorry about the crops, not enough time to do them precisely

McGinn is green; Murray is red; Harrell is yellow; Steinbrueck is blue; Staadecker is purple.
() (http://i.imgur.com/Cog1xg8.png)

McGinn strength:
() (http://i.imgur.com/kRyJMPm.png)

Murray strength:
() (http://i.imgur.com/Uvx8quX.png)

Harrell strength:
() (http://i.imgur.com/xvqXTTM.png)

Steinbrueck strength:
() (http://i.imgur.com/HO7Hdpx.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 24, 2013, 08:47:02 PM
Seattle City Council
Conlin is red; Sawant is green; Carver is yellow.

() (http://i.imgur.com/KFcp4du.png)

County Executive
Red is Constantine; green is Lobdell; yellow is Stewart; blue is Goodspaceguy, who won two precincts.

() (http://i.imgur.com/IsJuAT8.png)

That triangular Lobdell precinct is really the only non-Constantine precinct with many people (Clay.)  It was 39 Lobdell, 35 Constantine, 12 Stewart, 2 Goodspaceguy.  Seems like a random win (Lobdell lost his home precinct badly.) 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 26, 2013, 08:07:16 PM
Dow Constantine - your 2020 Democratic candidate for Governor


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 27, 2013, 02:53:23 AM
Seattle Times did a nice interactive map

http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2021691602_mayormapxml.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on September 06, 2013, 04:02:48 AM
http://www.seattlemet.com/news-and-profiles/publicola/articles/morning-fizz-escalating-list-of-council-endorsements-september-2013

Bruce Harrell has endorsed Ed Murray. Assuming his supporters follow his lead and support Murray as well, McGinn is pretty much finished.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 16, 2013, 01:40:43 PM
SurveyUSA: McGinn very slightly unpopular, but Murray cruising

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=cb15a65c-180d-4b15-8eae-dc6ef4ea8555

Murray 52%
McGinn 30%

McGinn job approvals:

Approve 40%
Disapprove 44%

Murray job approvals:

Approve 57%
Disapprove 19%

Seattle right/wrong track:

Right track 44%
Wrong track 39%

I really think this is basically over unless something big happens, and I can't imagine what that would be.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 16, 2013, 01:59:07 PM
It's over. I thought there was a chance the bulk of Harrell supporters would go to McGinn but apparently not. I don't expect Murray to win by this much but a 10-point margin in his favor would not surprise me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 25, 2013, 04:04:32 PM
Rough day for congressional copy-checking

()

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 25, 2013, 05:06:55 PM
Their finest staff have moved to the official side


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 26, 2013, 12:26:38 AM
http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2021898392_kingchargesxml.html

Almost October! Might be the break McGinn needs.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fed. Pac. Chairman Devin on September 29, 2013, 02:39:16 AM
Mark Schoesler of Ritzville has been elected Senate Republican leader.
Woohoo! finally someone from my area gets a little recognition.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 29, 2013, 08:36:48 AM
How are people voting on I-522? I don't know much about the issue but I guess I lean 'yes' based on what I've read.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on September 29, 2013, 11:48:03 AM
I will vote yes of course. But the powerful food lobby will presumably crush it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 29, 2013, 12:08:59 PM
No.  Strong No.  I can't believe the Democratic Party is going for this anti-scientific, poorly-written crap.  There is no rational reason to believe that genetic engineering is any less safe than the selective breeding processes we've engaged in for hundreds of thousands of years.  So why label GMOs with a blanket scare label that provides no information other than the super-vague contains "GMOs"?  Because people have a vague, abstract sense that they're "weird"?

I'm just going to paste what I've already written on this:

I don't see why I-522 would make the market more competitive. Large companies are going to survive the regulatory burdens of I-522 much better than small producers and distributors. Large companies can reingredient and re-make all of their packaging much easier, plus the possible legal liability surrounding the "chain of custody" would be harder for smaller firms to manage. The threshold in this law to be labeled as GMO (0% by 2019, compared to 0.9% in Europe or 5.0% in Japan) forces these smaller firms to potentially bear responsibility for trace amounts of GMO. Besides, the conventional seed industry is only somewhat less of an oligopoly than the GMO seed one. This isn't "sticking it to Monsanto" -- outside of the unaffected sectors, agriculture pretty much dislikes this all-around,

Finally, I like transparency and good information, but this bill is so deeply flawed. My problems about the "information" argument is that the information under I-522 is incomplete, inconsistent, and inaccurate. For instance:

1. A ton of products containing GMO product are exempted, I assume because industries wanted them to. So, if you're at the supermarket and buy on the basis of assuming everything not labeled "May Contain GMO" doesn't contain GMO food, you're going to buy a lot of GMO products. (Not that this is really a change; you already have been forever.)

2. On the flip side, there are some instances in which something can contain no GMO elements but still be labeled. Sugar in the U.S. comes from two sources: sugar beets (mainly domestic), and sugar cane (imported.) The sugar refined from both is basically identical (sucrose plus stray minerals.) However, because sugar beets are a GMO product (they have a modified protein) the sugar from them will be labeled incorrectly. The same happens with canola oil and a bunch of other common products.

3. Voluntary label regimes (e.g., USDA Certified Organic) already exist. People who want to know what the buy is GMO-free already have the option. I-522 just basically creates a regulatory mandate that redistributes this cost from the Natural Foods set to everyone. Doesn't Washington already have a sufficiently regressive tax system?

4. The damn thing is a scare label. "May Contain GMO Products." Putting aside that most Americans have non-evidence-based fears of GMO technology, anything that starts with "may contain..." is a scare label. If cheese had a mandated label saying "May be manufactured in France," even that would probably freak people out. People are already freaked out enough about GMOs (sadly; they're potentially great technology for the world's poor) without the state government helping them freak out more.  This seems to have sunk the market for GMOs in Europe, for no good reason.

5. GMO is a method, not a result. Labeling something "May contain GMO" is about as useless as labeling something "May contain some sort of allergen," except even less helpful, because people are actually allergic to allergens.

I love information and transparency. I think I-522 is a bad initiative, and I'm disappointed we're wasting our time fostering potentially anti-science attitudes in the name of feel-good quasi-transparency that probably will actually confuse consumers more than inform them. I'm voting No.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 29, 2013, 12:10:00 PM
I'm happy to answer questions, because I seriously hate this dumb, poorly-written initiative with a fiery passion.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fed. Pac. Chairman Devin on September 29, 2013, 03:43:16 PM
I'm happy to answer questions, because I seriously hate this dumb, poorly-written initiative with a fiery passion.
Could you try stating your issue with it instead of calling it dumb?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 29, 2013, 04:22:36 PM
Devin, read the post I made above that one :P

Welcome to the forum, by the way!  I think you might be our first poster ever from Asotin County.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on September 29, 2013, 04:26:44 PM
Welcome from Seattle! It's good to have some posters from over the mountains. :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on September 29, 2013, 04:37:22 PM
I'm conflicted on I-522. On one hand, most GMO's are completely harmless and make food more affordable for the poor. On the other hand, f**k Monsanto.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on September 29, 2013, 04:49:28 PM
Saw back a bit in the thread that the Senate Republicans have a new leader. Will this affect the MCC in any noticeable way?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 29, 2013, 05:06:03 PM
I'm conflicted on I-522. On one hand, most GMO's are completely harmless and make food more affordable for the poor. On the other hand, f**k Monsanto.

Monsanto will survive I-522 fine.  They don't like it, because agriculture broadly (and rightly) dislikes it, but it's not Monsanto that's going to get impacted most by this.  It's small family farms that don't have the money to spend on political fights.  Voting against this to spite Monsanto is like cutting your nose off to spite your face.

Except your nose is Monsanto and your face is agriculture and good public policymaking.

Or something.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fed. Pac. Chairman Devin on September 29, 2013, 11:18:20 PM
Devin, read the post I made above that one :P

Welcome to the forum, by the way!  I think you might be our first poster ever from Asotin County.
Whoops sorry, also why thank you!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fed. Pac. Chairman Devin on September 29, 2013, 11:24:50 PM
Welcome from Seattle! It's good to have some posters from over the mountains. :)
Thanks, but I like it over there much better. Im from Clarkston which is full of meth heads.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 01, 2013, 11:22:57 AM
Welcome from Seattle! It's good to have some posters from over the mountains. :)
Thanks, but I like it over there much better. Im from Clarkston which is full of meth heads.

You should visit rural Pierce County... or Aberdeen.... or Sequim... ;)

Though aren't you in the Palouse. That's some real beautiful countryside.

Have any polls come out for I-522? I'm still conflicted, though lean no.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fed. Pac. Chairman Devin on October 02, 2013, 07:28:59 PM
Welcome from Seattle! It's good to have some posters from over the mountains. :)
Thanks, but I like it over there much better. Im from Clarkston which is full of meth heads.

You should visit rural Pierce County... or Aberdeen.... or Sequim... ;)

Though aren't you in the Palouse. That's some real beautiful countryside.

Have any polls come out for I-522? I'm still conflicted, though lean no.
Yeah im in the Palouse it is very pretty around here. Its a great area for fishing hunting an boating.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 03, 2013, 04:20:23 AM
Asotin County actually seems like a pretty interesting place politically!  Clarkston has weird ancestral Democratic tendencies that still show up down-ballot.  It also seems to be influenced by its attachment to Lewiston, Idaho, more than Washington state (not surprisingly I guess.)  There are some places (outside of Asotin, mostly) where Obama did much worse than any other Democrat.  Weird politics.  Seems pretty gorgeous, though


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 03, 2013, 10:03:57 AM
Yeah. Didn't Cantwell actually win the county in 2006?

Cantwell has an odd electoral history in Eastern Washington, then going on to win Yakima County last year, but losing both Spokane and Whitman counties.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 04, 2013, 12:21:09 AM
Yep, Cantwell won Asotin in 2006 and Yakima in 2012

This explains a bit about why Cantwell won Yakima County in 2012 (plus Hispanic turnout plus there being liberal whites in parts):

http://www.yakimaherald.com/blogs/checksandbalances/410268-8/gop-apple-grower-supports-cantwell


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fed. Pac. Chairman Devin on October 04, 2013, 07:23:46 PM
Asotin County actually seems like a pretty interesting place politically!  Clarkston has weird ancestral Democratic tendencies that still show up down-ballot.  It also seems to be influenced by its attachment to Lewiston, Idaho, more than Washington state (not surprisingly I guess.)  There are some places (outside of Asotin, mostly) where Obama did much worse than any other Democrat.  Weird politics.  Seems pretty gorgeous, though
Clarkston itself is more liberal than the county because with most people making between 20-30 grand a year, and a ton of teen parents there is a strong dependence on welfare. Also the few people who do have good jobs are usually union workers. It is a pretty interesting place, but also very corrupt at the same time. I am running for City Council when I turn 18, on a reform platform like a Conservative Ross Perot. And yes it is very pretty if you are ever in the area take the Hells Canyon tour, expensive as hell but worth it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fed. Pac. Chairman Devin on October 04, 2013, 07:24:46 PM
Yeah. Didn't Cantwell actually win the county in 2006?

Cantwell has an odd electoral history in Eastern Washington, then going on to win Yakima County last year, but losing both Spokane and Whitman counties.
Cantwell in popular here I even worked as a volunteer for her last year.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 04, 2013, 07:29:11 PM
Yeah, I remember that endorsement. She was about 300 votes short of winning Kittittas County too. Even Chelan was relatively close at 53-46 or something.

So what was the reason for Cantwell's 2006 win in Asotin? In fact, her win was stronger there than in either Whitman or Spokane counties.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fed. Pac. Chairman Devin on October 04, 2013, 07:32:46 PM
Yeah, I remember that endorsement. She was about 300 votes short of winning Kittittas County too. Even Chelan was relatively close at 53-46 or something.

So what was the reason for Cantwell's 2006 win in Asotin? In fact, her win was stronger there than in either Whitman or Spokane counties.
Various reasons mostly a very effective door to door campaign, and get-out the vote operation.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 04, 2013, 07:40:32 PM
Wow! I just realized Garfield County went from 55-42 to 64-36. That's a huge swing.

Columbia County went from 59-39 to 63-37, a decent swing.

I never realized how strong Cantwell ended up performing in Eastern Washington in 2006.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on October 08, 2013, 04:56:44 PM
http://www.seattlemet.com/data/files/2013/10/attachment/132/SeattleResults.pdf


PPP has done their first poll of Seattle's mayor race, on behalf of the League of Conservation Voters (Who have endorsed Murray)

McGinn has a 30/49 approval rating, and Murray has a 56/19 favorability. Therefore it's no surprise that Murray leads McGinn 52/28.

Also of note: 96% of Seattle citizens plan on voting, with the remaining 4% are somewhat likely.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 08, 2013, 06:34:10 PM
I assume they did heavy LV screening and that identifying as "not likely at all" got you booted.

That's a lot of undecideds for such a high-profile race, but I really don't think McGinn stands any real chance of pulling this off.  Much worse approval ratings here than in the last one.  Being an incumbent polling at 28% when only 21% of people have no opinion on you...yikes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 09, 2013, 02:17:12 AM
:( Oh well, I hope Murray embraces pro-transit positions and continues McGinn's and really Nickels' pro-density leadership.

I don't think there's a way for McGinn to win with those numbers.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fed. Pac. Chairman Devin on October 13, 2013, 07:56:50 PM
I have a favor to ask. Could someone post the precinct results from Asotin County?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 14, 2013, 05:44:14 PM
http://www.king5.com/news/politics/McGinn-Murray-Seattle-mayor-poll-227655381.html

SurveyUSA

Murray 52% (n/c)
McGinn 32% (+2)

over.

I have a favor to ask. Could someone post the precinct results from Asotin County?

Sure, what do you want them on?

Here's 2012 (click "Precinct Results" below the race)

http://vote.wa.gov/results/20121106/asotin/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 17, 2013, 05:25:39 AM
Also, the poll above has the Seattle Public Financing measure failing by a crazy-go-nuts margin of 43%-15%.  The survey question is pretty rough ("to be paid for with two million dollars of new tax revenue"), but damn.  I didn't even know it had organized opposition, unlike the districts plan, which is up 30%-14%.

this thread is so sad and lonely considering ballots are mailing today and tomorrow.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 17, 2013, 12:46:40 PM
I really hope the districts plan fails, but I'm guessing it won't. Has the Stranger said anything on it?

I don't think the financing measure is going to do that badly. I have heard absolutely zero on it though...

Poorly phrased poll question?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 17, 2013, 11:27:42 PM
The Stranger endorsed the districts plan.  I'm pretty sure I'm voting for it.  Why are you against?  (I've heard some pretty good arguments, but the anti- people are a little inscrutable at times, so I'd love to hear your thoughts.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 17, 2013, 11:47:56 PM
Provincialism and NIMBY-empowerment? No thank you.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on October 18, 2013, 12:38:00 AM
Made up my mind for next week.

Voting No on I-517
Voting Yes on I-522
Voting to maintain on all the Advisory Votes


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 18, 2013, 01:22:47 AM
NIMBYism based on districts of over 90,000 people?  I'm not highly concerned about that.  Besides, even in a cut-up map, it's hard to provide a given district that's mostly highly urban.  That's because, when Seattle votes as a city, the supermajority of voters are basically suburbanites.  I think the system will work fine.  But I understand your concern... (aside: not voting for Sawant; bgwah, you were right.)

Finally, I still really, really don't get I-522.  I get hating the No on I-522 campaign, but I don't get liking I-522.  It really makes no sense beyond the most superficial levels, and it seems very shoddily written too.  Does any person leaning Yes want to explain?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on October 18, 2013, 01:29:48 AM
Finally, I still really, really don't get I-522.  I get hating the No on I-522 campaign, but I don't get liking I-522.  It really makes no sense beyond the most superficial levels, and it seems very shoddily written too.  Does any person leaning Yes want to explain?

It's not the greatest law ever, but it's upsides outweigh it's downsides and as you mentioned, the anti-522 campaign is hate-worthy.

Also, I don't live in King County so my opinion doesn't matter, but can anyone voice their concerns about Sawant? She seems pretty decent to me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 18, 2013, 01:39:32 AM
It's not the greatest law ever, but it's upsides outweigh it's downsides and as you mentioned, the anti-522 campaign is hate-worthy.

What upsides, though?  Genetic modification is a method of production, not an ingredient or something that someone can be allergic to.  It's also a production methodology that's been extensively tested and proven safe.  There's no empirically-demonstrated reason to label this above hundreds of other inputs of production.  I think the Wenatchee World said this well, using the example of something containing corn meal:

Quote
[The label doesn't tell you from what] variety of corn the meal was ground, what breeding technique altered the original plant’s genome, where the corn was grown, what chemicals might have been used, what company or university holds the seed patent, whether the patent holder engages in business practices we find acceptable or contributes to political campaigns of the wrong sort.

There are hundreds of other variables in the production of a good that can be indicated.  GMOs are being targeted for anti-scientific, paranoid, bullsh**t reasons.  They don't even put the labels in the nutrition panel.  They have to be "conspicuous."  In other words, they have to basically look like warning labels.  

That's putting aside how poorly-written the thing is.  The premise doesn't even make sense.  What good does it do, besides scaring soccer moms away from perfectly good, potentially life-saving technologies?

Sorry, I don't mean to be a dick about this, but it really upsets me to see progressives engaging in this sort of anti-scientific ridiculousness.  It's up there for me with climate change denialism and the people who want to slap disclaimers about intelligent design on biology books.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 18, 2013, 01:45:28 PM
I'll probably vote no on both initiatives. I think Alcon is spot on.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fed. Pac. Chairman Devin on October 20, 2013, 01:40:10 AM

SurveyUSA

Murray 52% (n/c)
McGinn 32% (+2)

over.

I have a favor to ask. Could someone post the precinct results from Asotin County?

Sure, what do you want them on?

Here's 2012 (click "Precinct Results" below the race)

Hey thanks a lot.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fed. Pac. Chairman Devin on October 20, 2013, 01:41:11 AM
Finally, I still really, really don't get I-522.  I get hating the No on I-522 campaign, but I don't get liking I-522.  It really makes no sense beyond the most superficial levels, and it seems very shoddily written too.  Does any person leaning Yes want to explain?

It's not the greatest law ever, but it's upsides outweigh it's downsides and as you mentioned, the anti-522 campaign is hate-worthy.

Also, I don't live in King County so my opinion doesn't matter, but can anyone voice their concerns about Sawant? She seems pretty decent to me.
Im not from Seattle either, but the 15$ an hour minimum wage is an awful idea.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on October 20, 2013, 02:42:44 AM
Finally, I still really, really don't get I-522.  I get hating the No on I-522 campaign, but I don't get liking I-522.  It really makes no sense beyond the most superficial levels, and it seems very shoddily written too.  Does any person leaning Yes want to explain?

It's not the greatest law ever, but it's upsides outweigh it's downsides and as you mentioned, the anti-522 campaign is hate-worthy.

Also, I don't live in King County so my opinion doesn't matter, but can anyone voice their concerns about Sawant? She seems pretty decent to me.
Im not from Seattle either, but the 15$ an hour minimum wage is an awful idea.

Forgive me if I don't take my political advice from a libertarian.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 20, 2013, 03:31:34 AM
Also, I don't live in King County so my opinion doesn't matter, but can anyone voice their concerns about Sawant? She seems pretty decent to me.

It kind of seems like she wants to run all the major businesses out of western Washington. Millionaire's tax? Almost doubling minimum wage? Force Amazon, Starbucks, etc. to unionize? New corporate taxes? I think she severely misjudges why the state is in the position it's in. Rent control is also generally a bad idea.

I also wonder if she would even have the authority to do half the things she suggests. If so, it seems a bit too much like playing with fire to me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fed. Pac. Chairman Devin on October 20, 2013, 03:56:12 AM
Finally, I still really, really don't get I-522.  I get hating the No on I-522 campaign, but I don't get liking I-522.  It really makes no sense beyond the most superficial levels, and it seems very shoddily written too.  Does any person leaning Yes want to explain?

It's not the greatest law ever, but it's upsides outweigh it's downsides and as you mentioned, the anti-522 campaign is hate-worthy.

Also, I don't live in King County so my opinion doesn't matter, but can anyone voice their concerns about Sawant? She seems pretty decent to me.
Im not from Seattle either, but the 15$ an hour minimum wage is an awful idea.

Forgive me if I don't take my political advice from a libertarian.
Its simple economics. But oh well, I honestly hope she wins so the people of Seattle can see how awful her ideas are.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fed. Pac. Chairman Devin on October 20, 2013, 03:57:30 AM
Also, I don't live in King County so my opinion doesn't matter, but can anyone voice their concerns about Sawant? She seems pretty decent to me.

It kind of seems like she wants to run all the major businesses out of western Washington. Millionaire's tax? Almost doubling minimum wage? Force Amazon, Starbucks, etc. to unionize? New corporate taxes? I think she severely misjudges why the state is in the position it's in. Rent control is also generally a bad idea.

I also wonder if she would even have the authority to do half the things she suggests. If so, it seems a bit too much like playing with fire to me.
Since when have socialists ever been reasonable? Or cared about playing with fire for that matter.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 20, 2013, 05:47:47 PM
Out of all the things on her platform, the $15 minimum wage is probably the most agreeable. Lol.

A $15 minimum wage may not work in Asotin County, but if there's a place where it could succeed, it's going to be a city.

I wonder if SeaTac will pass the raise too.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 20, 2013, 07:21:59 PM
I'm not sure if I understand this continued push for incremental increases in the minimum wage. Sure, if it were to keep up with inflation that would make sense, but inflation has been near zero for a number of years. Washington already has the highest minimum wage in the country, and no other state is particularly close. What I find most perturbing about this push is that there is no apparent long-term target in mind; it feels as is the goal is just to increase the minimum wage in perpetuity. Certainly this can't work forever; at some point we should start to see negative impacts from such increases that outweigh positive effects. We can't expect to continuously increase the costs of business without firms taking some measures to maintain their bottom line, whether in the form of higher prices, lower hiring, relocation, etc.

Is there some particular reason that Sawant wants a $15 minimum wage out of all the possible choices she could have picked? Is there some rigorous process she used to arrive at this number? Or is it that $15 is just a nice round number that works well as a slogan? If so, it seems a remarkably unscientific and dare I say dogmatic pursuit on her part.

Studies show that the minimum wage in and of itself has little impact on employment, and that its marginal increases have few short-term effects on the economy, though they do produce long-term distortions through less hiring in relevant industries, more underemployment, and decreased job length for workers at the minimum wage, with differential impacts depending on labor elasticities. As such, I don't have a problem with its existence, but its not a free lunch so to speak, and neither is increasing it continuously. I sympathize with its goals, but I think there are better ways to achieve similar outcomes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on October 20, 2013, 07:36:11 PM
I'm not sure if I understand this continued push for incremental increases in the minimum wage. Sure, if it were to keep up with inflation that would make sense, but inflation has been near zero for a number of years. Washington already has the highest minimum wage in the country, and no other state is particularly close. What I find most perturbing about this push is that there is no apparent long-term target in mind; it feels as is the goal is just to increase the minimum wage in perpetuity. Certainly this can't work forever; at some point we should start to see negative impacts from such increases that outweigh positive effects. We can't expect to continuously increase the costs of business without firms taking some measures to maintain their bottom line, whether in the form of higher prices, lower hiring, relocation, etc.

Is there some particular reason that Sawant wants a $15 minimum wage out of all the possible choices she could have picked? Is there some rigorous process she used to arrive at this number? Or is it that $15 is just a nice round number that works well as a slogan? If so, it seems a remarkably unscientific and dare I say dogmatic pursuit on her part.

Studies show that the minimum wage in and of itself has little impact on employment, and that its marginal increases have few short-term effects on the economy, though they do produce long-term distortions through less hiring in relevant industries, more underemployment, and decreased job length for workers at the minimum wage, with differential impacts depending on labor elasticities. As such, I don't have a problem with its existence, but its not a free lunch so to speak, and neither is increasing it continuously. I sympathize with its goals, but I think there are better ways to achieve similar outcomes.

It costs more to live in Seattle than it does in the rest of Washington, even if you're just renting an apartment. Having the minimum wage for Seattle be the same for Yakima would be stupid, and $15/hour would be enough to be sure that every worker in Seattle can afford to live in the city and buy what they need to to survive.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 20, 2013, 08:13:02 PM
I'm not sure if I understand this continued push for incremental increases in the minimum wage. Sure, if it were to keep up with inflation that would make sense, but inflation has been near zero for a number of years. Washington already has the highest minimum wage in the country, and no other state is particularly close. What I find most perturbing about this push is that there is no apparent long-term target in mind; it feels as is the goal is just to increase the minimum wage in perpetuity. Certainly this can't work forever; at some point we should start to see negative impacts from such increases that outweigh positive effects. We can't expect to continuously increase the costs of business without firms taking some measures to maintain their bottom line, whether in the form of higher prices, lower hiring, relocation, etc.

Is there some particular reason that Sawant wants a $15 minimum wage out of all the possible choices she could have picked? Is there some rigorous process she used to arrive at this number? Or is it that $15 is just a nice round number that works well as a slogan? If so, it seems a remarkably unscientific and dare I say dogmatic pursuit on her part.

Studies show that the minimum wage in and of itself has little impact on employment, and that its marginal increases have few short-term effects on the economy, though they do produce long-term distortions through less hiring in relevant industries, more underemployment, and decreased job length for workers at the minimum wage, with differential impacts depending on labor elasticities. As such, I don't have a problem with its existence, but its not a free lunch so to speak, and neither is increasing it continuously. I sympathize with its goals, but I think there are better ways to achieve similar outcomes.

It costs more to live in Seattle than it does in the rest of Washington, even if you're just renting an apartment. Having the minimum wage for Seattle be the same for Yakima would be stupid, and $15/hour would be enough to be sure that every worker in Seattle can afford to live in the city and buy what they need to to survive.

I'm not really a fan of spatially heterogeneous minimum wages as it creates a clear incentive to relocate business to certain areas, but if Seattle wants to raise it that high, I don't live there so I don't really care. Heck, it might help my home county. I just think it's a short-sighted move to increase the minimum wage that drastically, and I think it may only make the cost of living situation worse by intentionally creating a supply shock. I suppose it might make paying rent easier, but food, gas, and a number of other costs would almost certainly rise. It's not like we're talking about a small increase here; raising the minimum wage to $15 is more than a 50% increase. The real problem that they should be looking into is how to decrease the cost of living, not increasing the minimum wage.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 20, 2013, 11:03:36 PM
Seattle needs to be massively upzoned to allow for more apartment buildings and townhouses that middle-class residents could afford. But that will never happen, and an inexcusably large portion of the city will remain dedicated to single family housing for rich white people.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 21, 2013, 11:34:20 AM
Weird, likely-terrible KIRO poll of 399 registered voters from early October:

http://www.kirotv.com/gallery/news/mayoral-election/gCFFQ/#4000119

Murray 33%
McGinn 29%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 21, 2013, 08:00:04 PM
Your monthly Lolway Poll shows an absurdly big swing in I-522 support:

Initiative 522 (labeling GMO foods)
Yes 46% (-20)
No 42% (+21)

No Eyman numbers, I guess, not that anyone cares.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 21, 2013, 09:51:13 PM
Seattle needs to be massively upzoned to allow for more apartment buildings and townhouses that middle-class residents could afford. But that will never happen, and an inexcusably large portion of the city will remain dedicated to single family housing for rich white people.
+1

Sigh, I wish that KIRO poll were close to being correct.

I think the GMO labeling might fail. My anecdotal evidence suggests that people seem generally ambivalent towards it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 21, 2013, 10:36:52 PM
+2.  I'd never heard the phrase "single-family character" (whatever it means) used so often since I moved here to Seattle.  So terrible.

And as skeptical as I am of the poll, I hope that it's right about I-522.  I know it's not a big issue, but I'd be really happy to see it crash and burn on principle.

Two weeks to go!  I'm actually getting mildly near-excited!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 21, 2013, 11:09:27 PM
That seems like a reasonable step. Are there any legitimate reasons not to upzone other than offending NIMBY types?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 21, 2013, 11:26:55 PM
That seems like a reasonable step. Are there any legitimate reasons not to upzone other than offending NIMBY types?

It might vary from neighborhood-to-neighborhood based on unique circumstances such as the roads & transportation situation (Shoreline being a little freaked out about Point Wells doesn't seem too crazy to me since there's only a two-lane road in and out, for example). But overall, I haven't heard any good reasons. Seattle claims to be environmentalist, and they vote for sprawl-stopping measures like growth boundaries and the politicians who claim to support those goals, but they turn around and stop so much growth from actually happening in the city. What it boils down to is being anti-population growth, and I just don't think that's a realistic or sensible position for us to take. I think growth is good.

New Yorkers are hardly a bunch of eco-nuts, but NYC is arguably the most environmentally-friendly major city in the country by virtue of being dense and walkable with an excellent mass transit system to back it up.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 21, 2013, 11:30:10 PM
Out of curiosity, I uploaded California's Proposition 37 (GMO labeling): https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2012&off=67&elect=0&fips=6&f=0

()

It roughly follows partisan patterns, but not extremely so. It noticeably outperforms Obama in the northernmost part of the state, even winning a couple Romney counties --- makes me think its chances may be better in WA. Or so I hope. The fundraising is definitely against it though so I won't be surprised if it fails by a similar margin as CA.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 22, 2013, 01:37:18 AM
I'm really surprised you're for I-522, bgwah.  I can get disliking the campaign against it, but it's a completely nonsensical, woo-woo initiative.  It's basically the Democratic Party's worst, least rational tendencies rolled into one poorly-written ballot measure.  Why do you like it so much?

I'm hoping the Bay Area suburbs are more of a reflection of its performance among well-educated Democrats than Northern California.  I suspect a lot of those Del Norte/Siskiyou County cross-over yes votes are low-education retirees, fundamentalist Christians (a lot of whom are very anti-GMO), and similar not-very-Washington-y types.  Maybe I'm just being too optimistic.  I think you could argue for the Seattle suburbs being anywhere from 45% Yes to 55% Yes based on that map.  It's hard to find good comparisons to the Puget Sound in California.

Edit: I totally agree with bgwah's evaluation of the upzoning fears.  Seattle drivers are also somehow completely convinced that their traffic (whether it be from the changes to 520 or from new 10-unit apartments) will somehow triple in the next five years.  Seattle is really a car-dependent population, and people are freaked out that the city might become less friendly to cars.  It's not much more complicated than that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on October 22, 2013, 01:40:08 AM
Provincialism and NIMBY-empowerment? No thank you.
You just don't want the working class of Seattle to have a voice, do ya?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 22, 2013, 03:30:56 PM
Provincialism and NIMBY-empowerment? No thank you.
You just don't want the working class of Seattle to have a voice, do ya?

They might get one seat with districts. Some voice.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 22, 2013, 08:00:44 PM
Provincialism and NIMBY-empowerment? No thank you.
You just don't want the working class of Seattle to have a voice, do ya?

You know what's going to have a bigger and better impact? Public financing.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 22, 2013, 08:24:03 PM
Two weeks to go!  I'm actually getting mildly near-excited!

I'm already drooling over the thought of seeing more awesome precinct maps!!! ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 22, 2013, 09:44:09 PM
I'm really surprised you're for I-522, bgwah.  I can get disliking the campaign against it, but it's a completely nonsensical, woo-woo initiative.  It's basically the Democratic Party's worst, least rational tendencies rolled into one poorly-written ballot measure.  Why do you like it so much?

Poor food labeling is a constant source of frustration for me. If I can help others make ethical decisions about what they eat, I'm going to. If you think it's just anti-science non-sense, then feel free to ignore the labels. Give the consumers that information and let them decide.

I understand that you have a need to believe in something you work on, but this definitely reeks of cognitive dissonance to me. You're trying way too hard to justify this. I think deep down inside you know there's nothing wrong with labels and are trying to put a progressive spin on your opposition. Sorry, but I'm not buying it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 22, 2013, 11:12:54 PM
bgwah, that doesn't make any sense, considering the reason I ended up working on this issue is because I argued against it at public forums.  Maybe you should consider actually addressing my points instead of being patronizing.  You're not working hard enough to justify this: your "justification" is basically an over-simplistic TV commercial tagline.

If you think I'm not typically this aggressive about things I think are logically nonsense, you clearly don't remember how annoying I was about R-74 last year.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 23, 2013, 08:59:01 PM
Fine. But you've been plenty patronizing. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 23, 2013, 11:39:58 PM
Fine. But you've been plenty patronizing. :P

No, sugarlips, I've been condescending.

;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 24, 2013, 12:01:41 AM
I really don't remember eating anything really "organic" in the past few months.  The GMO thing will hurt the demand for such things, meaning they'll be cheaper for people like me!  ;)  ;D 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 24, 2013, 01:01:24 AM
Fine. But you've been plenty patronizing. :P

No, sugarlips, I've been condescending.

;)

Just get a room already.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 24, 2013, 01:52:24 AM

But it's so indecent!!!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on October 24, 2013, 02:36:22 AM
Provincialism and NIMBY-empowerment? No thank you.
You just don't want the working class of Seattle to have a voice, do ya?

You know what's going to have a bigger and better impact? Public financing.
Obviously, but districts are good too.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 26, 2013, 08:25:19 PM
I've decided to vote no on I-522, and I am increasingly annoyed by the Yes campaign. I'm far more bothered by I-517 though. I think if it passes people will come to dislike it pretty quickly.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on October 26, 2013, 08:36:32 PM
I've decided to vote no on I-522, and I am increasingly annoyed by the Yes campaign. I'm far more bothered by I-517 though. I think if it passes people will come to dislike it pretty quickly.

Anyone smart enough to read the Voter's Guide they received in the mail would vote against I-517. "The annoying guys who ask for your signature would be allowed to petition at high school football games" is a pretty compelling argument.

I was also surprised to see Rob McKenna was one of the authors of the "Vote No" argument.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 26, 2013, 09:42:35 PM
I noticed that too AG!  There actually are a fair number of institutional Republicans who are against I-517, even among the rank and file.  Other than the Mainstream Republicans (who dissent on a lot) there aren't any GOP LD groups against it or anything, but at the Republican LD meetings I've been to lately, a few individuals did speak out against it.

My favorite part is the second banner headline on the Yes on 517 site:

"Senator Pam Roach says Yes on I-517!"

Who can you trust on interpersonal respect and propriety if not Pam Roach?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on October 26, 2013, 09:45:14 PM
I think the institutional Republican opposition comes from how much grocery stores hate it. That's where a lot of the No on I-517 money is coming from.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fed. Pac. Chairman Devin on October 28, 2013, 12:10:25 AM
What do y'all think of the thefts from the State Democratic party?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 28, 2013, 07:44:22 PM
http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2013/10/28/gma-pours-more-money-into-no-on-522-moms-for-labeling-lawyer-cries-foul

Geez, that's a lot of money. I don't see how they lose but I can hope for the best. ;)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 30, 2013, 01:57:51 AM
Eyman's I-517 is sinking after TV ads start airing and people actually start voting, says terrible pollster who's probably right

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2013/10/29/poll-eymans-i-517-is-rapidly-losing-ground/

Moore Information (R-lol):

Yes 33%
No 40%
Undecided 27%

Among those who have already voted, support is sharply negative, although it's not specified how, besides both Ds and Rs oppose.  Among those who haven't voted, 21% are definitely No, but only 11% are definite Yes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 04, 2013, 05:33:51 AM
48 hours, gents.  Predictions?  I'll take a stab...

Eyman thing
Yes 45%
No 55%

GMO labeling
Yes 49%
No 51%

Seattle mayor
Murray 57.5%
McGinn 42.5%

Seattle City Council (with minimal thought)
Conlin 57%
Sawant 43%

Anything else worth predicting?  I can't even muster the mental energy to consider the advisory votes.  Those make helping people vote a huge pain in the ass, by the way.  I'm quite convinced that some people just give up on finishing their ballot after seeing those.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 04, 2013, 06:44:49 AM
You skipped the State Senate race, good sir


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 04, 2013, 03:11:07 PM
oh, duh.  52.5% Angel, I guess.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 04, 2013, 03:14:53 PM
I agree with your winners but differ a little on the margins. I think Eyman will be closer, I-522 not as close and Conlin-Sawant a smidge closer.

Will also be very curious to see the SeaTac minimum wage vote.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 05, 2013, 06:30:13 PM
I'm in agreement with you guys on all the winners. Though I think the Eyman thing may be a bit closer.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fed. Pac. Chairman Devin on November 05, 2013, 09:03:13 PM
Fingers crossed that Mayor Mcginn can pull this out! Met him once, and he seemed like an honest and down to earth guy. Plus something about Murray gives me the heebie jeebies. That and his gun control bill while he was a SS.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 05, 2013, 10:27:57 PM
The results are in!!

Well, the mock election results. :P

http://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/mock/Results.aspx


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 05, 2013, 11:04:38 PM
And thus the long, slow wait for results begins...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 05, 2013, 11:12:43 PM
Some Eastern counties are coming in. I-522 is getting 46% in Ferry but losing hard in SE WA farming counties.

I-517 is the opposite, winning Ferry but losing in the SE. It's definitely on track to lose big though.

Edit: Big drop in. Both initiatives on track to lose by big margins.

The 26th looks like it could be a nail biter.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 05, 2013, 11:20:57 PM
Murray up 56-44

$15 min wage up 54-46 in Seatac


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on November 05, 2013, 11:28:49 PM
Murray is crushing McGinn, I-517 is going down in flames. I-522 is close with Reject leading, and SD-26 is literally 50/50 with Angle ahead by a little over 100 votes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 05, 2013, 11:30:34 PM
Wow... 522 is even down in Thurston. Given the margins against in Eastern WA and the weak pro-vote in King is this completely done for?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 05, 2013, 11:51:30 PM
I-522 is done.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 07, 2013, 08:27:30 PM
The SeaTac minimum wage proposition may be in serious trouble. The batch that was reported at 4:30 today was 57% "No".


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 07, 2013, 11:26:06 PM
SeaTac Prop 1 lost tonight's batch 63-37 (!)

On the other hand, Kshama Sawant won tonight's batch 56-44 (!!) She may pull this off after all.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 07, 2013, 11:35:40 PM
So King County reports having 213,938 Seattle ballots. They have counted 149,471 of those, leaving 64,467 left.

However, only 86.04% of voters so far have cast ballots for Council Position No. 2. That means there are roughly 55,467 votes left in the race.

Sawant is currently down 4,205 votes. She would need 29,836 of the remaining votes to take the lead. That's 53.79% of the remaining vote, which seems possible given the trend thus far.

Wowza.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 07, 2013, 11:54:21 PM
Gross. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 08, 2013, 02:07:56 AM
Sawant's math looks a little generous when it comes to ballots remaining, but she got 55.8% tonight in the second batch, so who knows?

Prop. 1 is in serious trouble, and I hear the campaign is preparing for a ballot chase already.  Kind of surprising, considering how liberal late King County ballots usually are.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on November 08, 2013, 05:15:31 AM
()
Someone please tell me that Sawant will be the last of the majority of "progressive" votes on the council.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Asian Nazi on November 08, 2013, 09:44:21 AM
#conlinisgonelin :D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 08, 2013, 08:10:22 PM
The election night abstract (with LD breakdown) is out.

Nothing terribly shocking. McGinn did in fact win and do best in the southeast part of the city (11th and 37th districts). Link: http://your.kingcounty.gov/elections/2013nov-general/results/election-night-abstract.pdf


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 09, 2013, 02:42:03 AM
Prop. 1 didn't do too badly in the second drop tonight, but Richard Conlin did...he may be toast.  Sawant needs about 52% of the remaining vote.  Amazing.

Also, it looks like Seattle's Prop. 1 (public financing) has a shot: http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2013/11/08/sawant-surges-in-latest-ballot-drop-seatac-prop-1-bleeding-slows

Have we ever seen late ballots this different?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 09, 2013, 02:45:54 AM
Holy crap! Will Seattle be the only major US city with a socialist on the council? Also pretty amazing considering it's a city-wide election...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on November 09, 2013, 03:18:58 AM
I hope Prop 1 passes. Publicaly-financed elections is an interesting idea that needs to be discussed more.

Also, Go Sawant!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: jimrtex on November 09, 2013, 04:10:15 AM
Prop. 1 didn't do too badly in the second drop tonight, but Richard Conlin did...he may be toast.  Sawant needs about 52% of the remaining vote.  Amazing.

Also, it looks like Seattle's Prop. 1 (public financing) has a shot: http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2013/11/08/sawant-surges-in-latest-ballot-drop-seatac-prop-1-bleeding-slows

Have we ever seen late ballots this different?
Why are both Murray and Conlin dropping?   On election night Murray had 56% and has dropped down to 53%.  What is the correlating factor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 09, 2013, 05:25:03 AM
In general the late King County votes are very liberal leaning. Which explains the closening of Sawant-Conlin and the Public Financing proposition. As to why Murray-McGinn has narrowed? No clue. Comcast "scandal"?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 09, 2013, 06:01:50 AM
Prop. 1 didn't do too badly in the second drop tonight, but Richard Conlin did...he may be toast.  Sawant needs about 52% of the remaining vote.  Amazing.

Also, it looks like Seattle's Prop. 1 (public financing) has a shot: http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2013/11/08/sawant-surges-in-latest-ballot-drop-seatac-prop-1-bleeding-slows

Have we ever seen late ballots this different?
Why are both Murray and Conlin dropping?   On election night Murray had 56% and has dropped down to 53%.  What is the correlating factor.

Like Seattle says, late King County ballots tend to be progressive.  The Comcast issue probably didn't help Murray, either.  The difference is sharper than in previous years, though.  It's also a little odd that it's not applying to the SeaTac ballot measure -- although who knows if the countywide trend necessarily applies to each part of the county?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 09, 2013, 09:30:51 AM
McGinn and Sawant have very similar electoral coalitions - the young, people of color, far lefties, readers of The Stranger, etc. As one goes up the other definitely should as well. They both gained in late counting in the primary.

For that reason, I'm doubtful the Comcast issue was a factor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 09, 2013, 01:13:23 PM
Prop. 1 didn't do too badly in the second drop tonight, but Richard Conlin did...he may be toast.  Sawant needs about 52% of the remaining vote.  Amazing.

Also, it looks like Seattle's Prop. 1 (public financing) has a shot: http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2013/11/08/sawant-surges-in-latest-ballot-drop-seatac-prop-1-bleeding-slows

Have we ever seen late ballots this different?
Why are both Murray and Conlin dropping?   On election night Murray had 56% and has dropped down to 53%.  What is the correlating factor.

Like Seattle says, late King County ballots tend to be progressive.  The Comcast issue probably didn't help Murray, either.  The difference is sharper than in previous years, though.  It's also a little odd that it's not applying to the SeaTac ballot measure -- although who knows if the countywide trend necessarily applies to each part of the county?

Hmm, that's a good question. I wonder what comparing a previous election night abstract to a previous final result might reveal in terms of voting patterns for legislative districts.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 09, 2013, 01:27:10 PM
State Rep. Tami Green is going to run against appointed incumbent State Sen. Steve O'Ban in the 28th LD. Great news.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 09, 2013, 02:38:41 PM
State Rep. Tami Green is going to run against appointed incumbent State Sen. Steve O'Ban in the 28th LD. Great news.

Indeed! I would think this and the 48th are the best opportunities for taking back the State Senate, no?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 09, 2013, 07:36:59 PM
State Rep. Tami Green is going to run against appointed incumbent State Sen. Steve O'Ban in the 28th LD. Great news.

Indeed! I would think this and the 48th are the best opportunities for taking back the State Senate, no?

Yes, the 28th and the 48th are definitely the top targets. After that comes the 45th, and then after that the 6th, 26th, 42nd and 47th, depending on candidate recruitment. Not sure if there are plans to make a play at the 31st (Roach) or the 35th (Sheldon).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 10, 2013, 10:32:14 AM
I've been looking through old State House results and noticed we used to use a system like the one currently used in New Jersey. Both State House members were elected in the same race and each voter got two votes. It seems 1964 was the last year this system was used. After we ditched it, we started "nesting" the State House districts within the State Senate districts (each State House district was half a State Senate district; 32-A and 32-B, for example). I'm not sure when this practice stopped.

Anybody know of an article or book that talks about why these changes were made? I tried Google but gave up pretty quick.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 10, 2013, 12:15:59 PM
The Reynolds v. Sims ruling and other one man, one vote rulings were passed in the 1960s. Prior to that most states (Washington included) had districts with unequal populations. I'm not sure if we actually used the system you describe or if that's just poor data representation, but we adopted our current system then (adding the bipartisan redistricting commission aspect a bit later).

As for the half House districts, I don't know why this was done away with. We used a hybrid system for a while, where some House districts were split and others are like they are now. The 19th LD was split through 1990 despite the vast majority of LDs just giving their voters two representatives, for example.

This is a good history of redistricting in WA: http://apps.leg.wa.gov/oralhistory/redistricting2/intro.aspx


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on November 10, 2013, 03:28:09 PM
State Sen. Nick Harper (D) has resigned (http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20131110/NEWS01/711109909/Harper-quits-state-Senate), to spend more time with his family. His Everett-based seat is pretty Safe D territory.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: jimrtex on November 11, 2013, 12:25:22 PM
I've been looking through old State House results and noticed we used to use a system like the one currently used in New Jersey. Both State House members were elected in the same race and each voter got two votes. It seems 1964 was the last year this system was used. After we ditched it, we started "nesting" the State House districts within the State Senate districts (each State House district was half a State Senate district; 32-A and 32-B, for example). I'm not sure when this practice stopped.

Anybody know of an article or book that talks about why these changes were made? I tried Google but gave up pretty quick.
The Consitution literally says that representative districts may not be divided between senate districts, that there not be more than 99 representatives, and that the number of senators be between 1/3 and 1/2 the number of representatives.

After statehood, the legislature created districts that were largely based on counties.   Senatorial districts were either a county; two or three counties; or several districts within one county: King (6), Spokane(3+), Whitman (2), Whatcom(2), and Walla Walla (1+).  Spokane and Walla Walla were exceptional in that part of Spokane was paired with Stevens (this was before Pend Oreille and Ferry were created), and part of Walla Walla was paired with Franklin and Adams.  

Representative districts were either a whole county, or coincident with a senate district, and elected either 1, 2, or 3 representatives.   In the larger counties, the senate and representative districts were coincident, and usually 2 representatives were elected.   For example, King had 6 senate districts, 6 representative districts, with 5 electing 2 representatives, and 1 electing 3.  So it was immediately established in some parts of the state to have a senator and usually 2, but sometimes 3 representatives elected from the same territory (the numbering of the two sets of district numbers were independent, so while a senate district might be 27, the identical territory could be representative district 35.

Garfield, Asotin, and Columbia were a senate district, while Garfield, Asotin, and Columbia were each a representative district electing one representative.   Clarke (now Clark) and Skamania were a senate district, Clarke was a representative district electing two representatives, and Skamania elected one representative.  So in the more rural parts of the state, there was one senate district and several representative districts.   I wouldn't really call them subdistricts since the representative districts were for individual counties within a multi-county senate district, and likely had great differences in population.

When new counties were added (Chelan, Ferry, Benton, Grant, and Pend Orielle were created after statehood) they were assigned to a senate district and given a one-representative house district.

There was a new apportionment after the 1900 census, but the same format was mostly followed.  King (8), Pierce (5), Spokane (5), Whitman (2), Snohomish (2), Whatcom (2) and Walla Walla (1+) had multiple senate districts.

There were just minor tweaks until 1930, when reapportionment was accomplished via the initiative.   This initiative eliminated the difference between senate and representative districts by eliminating the single-county representative districts.   It created 4 new senate districts in King, and one in Yakima, and somewhat rearranged multi-county senate districts elsewhere.  By eliminating the one representative per county arrangement, and increasing the number of representatives to the constitutional maximum of 99, they found enough representatives to transfer to King, without radically changing things elsewhere.  After this redistricting there were 46 districts, with 39 electing two representatives at large, and 7 electing three representatives at large.

In 1956 another initiative was passed, but in 1957 the legislature overturned it (initiated legislation can be amended by a 2/3 super-majority in both houses.   The initiated version created 3 more senate districts, two in King and one in Clark, bringing the total to 49, the maximum permissible under the constitution.  49 districts elected 2 representatives, and one elected three representatives.  The districts were largely based on counties, but there was somewhat more splitting of counties, including counties like Benton, Yakima, Skagit, Snohomish having portions attached to other counties.

The version passed by the legislature kept the three new senate districts in King and Clark counties, but elsewhere for the most part restored the pre-1957 senate districts.  They then gave three representatives to 6 districts and 1 representative to 5 districts.  The other 38 districts had 2 representatives.  

To be continued.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: jimrtex on November 11, 2013, 12:27:00 PM
continuing...

There was then an attempt to create a different redistricting system (which was defeated), and litigation (Thigpen v Meyers), and a 1962 attempt to apportion by the initiative, which was narrowly defeated (it won big in King, and some other large counties, but was thumped elsewhere.  Garfield voted 42 Yes to 1187 No.   The federal district court had deferred action until after the initiative failed, but then ruled that the legislative districts were unconstitutional.  The 1963 legislature did not act, and the district court enjoined holding elections on the existing lines.  This was stayed by the SCOTUS, pending its decision in Reynolds v Sims.  Seven days after Reynolds v Sims was announced, the SCOTUS rejected the appeal in Thigpen v Meyers.   The 1964 elections went ahead on the existing lines, but the district court enjoined the 1965 legislature from enacting any legislation, including a budget until they had redistricted.

Dan Evans was newly elected governor, while there was a Democratic legislature.  It took the legislature 47 days to pass a redistricting bill.  Slade Gorton who was in the legislature at the time is credited by some with getting a bill pass that was more favorable to Republicans, while the Democrats were more concerned with protecting individual incumbents by keeping them in separate districts, even it was not necessarily favorable to their election.

The 1965 legislation created 49 senate districts and 56 representative districts.  There were 14 single-member representative districts (2A-2B, 5A-5B, 8A-8B, 9A-9B, 11A-11B, 16A-16B, and 32A-32B).  These are described in the law as representative districts, and then the encompassing senate district, such as 2, is described as being constituted from representative districts 2A and 2B.

For example, 2A was Okanogan, while 2B was Ferry, Stevens, and Pend Oreille.   Senate district 2 was constituted from 2A and 2B.

In some cases these single member districts appear intended to ensure representation in an area.  For example, before 1965, District 10 was Columbia, Garfield, and Asotin, and had one senator and one representative; and District 11 was Walla Walla and had one senator and two representatives.  After 1965, 11 A was Columbia, Garfield, and Asotin, and part of Walla Walla, while 11B was most of Walla Walla (including the city of Walla Walla).   This avoided the risk of all 3 legislators coming from Walla Walla, which had a majority of the population.

Other splits included 8A part of Yakima, and 8B part of Benton; and 9A Whitman, and 9B Lincoln and Adams; and 16A part of Benton and 16B Franklin.

Districts 5 in Spokane and 32 in Seattle were also split.   5A and 5B appear gerrymandered with interleaved fingers, so I suspect it was intended to keep incumbents apart.  Or perhaps 3 representatives ended up in a senate district, and they wanted to force the two from an existing district to face off.

District 32 is really an anomaly, since the other 14 districts in King County were simple 1 senator, 2 representative districts.   If you looked carefully at the boundaries, and the incumbents, etc., it probably makes very good sense, but it certainly is an oddity, while the 5 splits in rural territory are obviously trying to maintain representation for distinct areas.

The 7 split districts were in a sense a throwback to the pre-1930 practice of having at least one representative district for every county, but now they were for distinct areas, and the numbering was coordinated.

The other 42 senate districts continued the practice of at-large elections for representatives.  41 elected 2 representatives and one in Whatcom, elected 3 representatives.   Previously, Whatcom had 2 senate districts electing 2 and 1 representatives (3 total).

In 1965, legislation was also passed providing for at large representatives to be elected by position.  This was separate from the redistricting, and I don't know why it was done.  The current statutes for election-by-position is general, and applies not only to the House of Representatives, but cities and school districts, etc (chartered cities and counties may be able to disregard this).   I found the 1965 law based on references in the current statutes.

It may have been that they wanted to provide more structure to the elections, where many representatives would be forced to run against each other.   Or it might have been simply following the practice for other at-large elections.  If OMOV was being applied to commissioner elections, it might be easier to switch to at-large elections where incumbents wouldn't have to be matched up since they could run for separate positions rather than to change the district lines.

Before 1965, districts 1 through 17 were east of the Cascades, with 17 including part of Clark, plus Skamania, and Klickitat.

Districts 1 and 10 were moved to King and Kitsap as a result of the 1965 redistricting; 2 and 11 to King and Pierce as the result of the 1970s redistricting; and 5 to King as a result of the the 1990s redistricting.   17 has been captured by Clark.  Otherwise, Washington has had a fairly continuous history of district numbering for over a century (with the King County districts in the 40s having been added later, along with 49 in Clark County).

The SOS elections data base shows the single member representative districts as being position elections (eg 2A is shown as 2 position 1, and 2B is 2 position 2), but if you look at the county returns they are correct.   32A and 32B had significant differences in number of votes cast.

The 1970s redistricting was done by a federal court (actually a special master) after the legislature failed to redistrict.   There were 49 senate districts, and all had two representatives.  Under modern OMOV requirements, having three representatives for some districts is impossible.   In the 1960s it might have been believed you could give an area entitled to 1.3 senators and 2.6 representatives: 1 senator and 3 representatives, where they somewhat compensated each other.

The 1980s redistricting was done by the legislature and they created four single member representative districts: 19A was Cowlitz and part of Wahkiakum; while 19B was Pacific, part of Grey Harbor, and part of Wahkiakum; while 39A and 39B were parts of Snohomish County.

The 19 split recognizes the difference between the coast and the lower Columbia, particularly Longview; but the OMOV interpretation was strict enough to require the division to occur in Wahkiakum which doesn't have much population.  One reason for not creating single-member representative districts is that it would probably require more splits of small counties.

The redistricting commission was provided for in 1983, and has done redistricting for the last 3 decades (1990s, 2000s, 2010s).  I don't know if the commission made an active decision to not have single member representative districts or not.  But there haven't been any created.

There have been bills introduced that would switch to having single member representative districts.   They have at best received committee hearings that can be characterized as cold (ie, if we don't ask any questions, we can go on to the next bill in 5 minutes).  One year, one representative asked about how the districts could be divided, noting that the other representative from her district lived across the alley and could look down into her backyard from his second story (whether he has binoculars, and she has a swimming pool, I do not know, but that is how I visualize it).

Sources:

Washington Redistricting History (http://apps.leg.wa.gov/oralhistory/redistricting2/default.aspx)

Legislative History links (http://www.leg.wa.gov/History/Legislative/Pages/default.aspx)

'History of the Legislature 1965-1982' has lots of interesting stuff, with the section on the 1865 including details of the process.

'Members of the Washington State Legislature' has the legislators each year by district, along with where the district was (I don't think this is always 100% accurate).  It also has an interesting section on redistricting history.   This includes the laws that actually implemented redistricting, which can be found here:

Index to Session Laws (http://www.leg.wa.gov/CodeReviser/Pages/session_laws.aspx)

The session laws include all the bills that became law each session of the legislature. 

Links to past voter Guides, not the most obvious format (https://wei.sos.wa.gov/agency/osos/en/press_and_research/PreviousElections/pages/voterspamphlets.aspx)

I know that 1964, 1966, and 1972 have district maps, including details for the cities.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Asian Nazi on November 12, 2013, 07:25:25 PM
We just pulled ahead by 41 votes!

https://electionsdata.kingcounty.gov/election-results-nov/three/City%2C%20L-Z/Seattle/City%20of%20Seattle%20Council%20Position%20No.%202

Can someone run the math as to how many votes are left to be counted?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 12, 2013, 07:53:29 PM
Really stunning. I think there are about 17,000 votes left for that race, but there's also a couple of hundred or as many as a thousand that may be eligible depending on signature issues.

SeaTac Prop 1 has held on to its lead. Currently up by 43 votes. I think somewhere around 500 votes are left to be counted there.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: jimrtex on November 13, 2013, 12:19:46 AM
We just pulled ahead by 41 votes!

https://electionsdata.kingcounty.gov/election-results-nov/three/City%2C%20L-Z/Seattle/City%20of%20Seattle%20Council%20Position%20No.%202

Can someone run the math as to how many votes are left to be counted?
Just short of 160K votes cast in the council race of 186K Seattle ballots counted.  There are around 213K ballots that can be counted, with another 4K possible.  The number of unverified ballots dropped from around 7K to 4K with the last update on Tuesday.  The number of unverified had remained pretty constant until this last update.  I don't know whether that means they've started going back for a second look, or that they have made their final decision.

Sawant had 47% in the first 2/3 of ballots counted, and 55.6% in the remaining 1/3 (and this keeps climbing).

Sawant should put up another 2000 votes or so.

The council race has 14.6% undervote.  The mayors race around 4.0%, and the GMO initiative around 1.5% (countywide).   Were the state initiatives top of the ballot.  The mayoral undervote sounds kind of high, like it was buried.   Were the King County races above the city races also?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 13, 2013, 12:42:28 AM
Yeah, all the state stuff came first. I think the mayor's race was actually on the back of the ballot, though I could be wrong.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 13, 2013, 12:50:34 AM
Sawant is winning? I'm not sure if I should be terrified or amused.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 13, 2013, 09:50:18 AM
I don't understand why King County can't release daily precinct results like everyone else. Grrrrr.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 13, 2013, 09:53:46 AM
Also, it looks like statewide turnout is going to end up at about 45%, which I believe is the lowest since we entered the vote-by-mail era circa 2004.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 13, 2013, 12:22:39 PM
I have to admit that, although I voted Conlin and I'm deeply concerned that we're losing an advocate for good, dense urban development, part of me is rooting for Sawant at this point just because this is awesome political theater.

I've heard a lot of grumbling lately about how reduced turnout might be because vote-by-mail eliminates the excitement of Election Day, and removes a last-minute reminder for voters to stop procrastinating and submit their ballot.  I tend to think the convenience increases turnout more than the quietude decreases it, though.

King County is perplexingly awful on a lot of elections issues (drop-box availability, precinct results, integration with state databases) for no apparent reason.  I'm pretty sure they have the resources to do a decent job on accessibility.  They just seem to not care much.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 13, 2013, 12:42:17 PM
I don't think there's really any data to support the idea vote-by-mail decreases turnout. I mean, hasn't turnout in '06, '08, '10 and '12 been some of the highest in state history? And compare turnout in our local elections to turnout in local elections in other states.

I guess next year will be a good test since there are no statewide elections. 2002 was the last time this happened, and I believe turnout that year was 38%. Hard to see how it'll drop below the 45% we're getting this year. I seem to have completely fabricated the 38% number.

Here's historical data: http://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/voter_participation.aspx


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 13, 2013, 12:56:07 PM
Huh, this is another really cool data set: http://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/absentee_stats.aspx?y=2000

As early as 2000, 54% of ballots were being cast by mail. In 2004, it was 68%. By 2008 (the last year before King switched) it was 89%.

ETA: Something is weird with the Pierce numbers for 2011 and 2012.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: jimrtex on November 13, 2013, 10:40:24 PM
Huh, this is another really cool data set: http://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/absentee_stats.aspx?y=2000

ETA: Something is weird with the Pierce numbers for 2011 and 2012.
The number of "absentee ballots" cast in 2011 and 2012 is identical to that for 2010 - the last year when there was a meaningful difference in Pierce County.  Making the SOS sends out a spreadsheet populated with old numbers, and Pierce County is not updating.  Maybe the Auditor goes, "Huh?, why do I put the same number in both columns.", and someone over at the SOS office says, "Pierce County is always different because they still have in person voting".


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 13, 2013, 10:41:54 PM
The Yes on 522 campaign continues to post "it's too close to call" stuff, even though they're 53,113 votes behind with about 55,238 ballots left to count.  Bizarre.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: jimrtex on November 13, 2013, 11:31:35 PM
King County is perplexingly awful on a lot of elections issues (drop-box availability, precinct results, integration with state databases) for no apparent reason.  I'm pretty sure they have the resources to do a decent job on accessibility.  They just seem to not care much.
They were forced to automate for practical reasons before other counties, and also can afford to have regular election staff.   Because they have such a large share of the population, there is probably conceit as well.

In Garfield County, the auditor probably personally counts the ballots, and anything the SOS does saves money for the county.

All states are required by federal law to have a statewide registration database.  In Texas, the smaller counties log in directly to the state database.  The larger counties which had already automated, do a batch download once per day.

The thing that is bothersome about King County is that they take their time counting the votes.  They had verified signatures on most ballots within a day of the election.  But they just run some through the scanners each day.   King County has 45,000 ballots left to count, about 80% of the statewide total.  Pierce County has 462, and Snohomish around 4,000.

They would probably claim that it either permits them to use their regular staff, or to do temporary hires for a couple of weeks instead of two days.  But it gives the outside appearance of manipulating the results (remember the Gregoire-Rossi race).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 15, 2013, 06:52:21 AM
I-522 folks say they'll go the put-this-thing-on-the-ballot-until-it-passes route. They're planning a 2016 vote: http://www.theolympian.com/2013/11/14/2829299/backers-of-i-522s-gmo-labeling.html

Hey, it worked for Costco/liquor privatization...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 15, 2013, 02:02:50 PM
It'll probably pass next time.  Hopefully they'll bring it up again in a less inane form, but considering their ultimate goal is probably a GMO ban, I doubt it.

In other news, Kshama Sawant is pretty obviously going to win, and SeaTac Prop. 1 had a good night last night, so it's back in the "likely win" column -- although it's only about a 50-vote margin, so a bad night tonight could throw it off.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 17, 2013, 02:51:29 AM
It'll probably pass next time.  Hopefully they'll bring it up again in a less inane form, but considering their ultimate goal is probably a GMO ban, I doubt it.

In other news, Kshama Sawant is pretty obviously going to win, and SeaTac Prop. 1 had a good night last night, so it's back in the "likely win" column -- although it's only about a 50-vote margin, so a bad night tonight could throw it off.

Wow... I-522 wound up pulling ahead in Island, Snohomish, Kitsap and Clallam counties. In the end will probably only fail by about a 51-49 margin.

So would you give it about a 60% chance of passing in a larger turnout election?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 18, 2013, 08:00:34 PM
^^^ Yeah, something like that.  Demographic trends are also with the "Yes" side -- young voters (even fairly conservative ones) supported I-522 at fairly strong rates.

SeaTac Proposition 1 ($15 minimum wage) remains up by 46 votes. The difference? Yesterday, there were ballots left to count. After today, there may not even be 46 ballots left to count (except for challenged ballots, which can be "cured" until certification on the 26th.) In other words, it looks like this is over.

Yes 2,995 (+59)
No 2,949 (+59)

The short story is that there are not enough ballots left to change this result. The long version is this:

King County won't update their ballot return page until 8 PM. However, as of last night, 6,202 SeaTac ballots were on-hand, of which 6,033 were verified as ready to count. They had counted 6,046 as of today. That means that all ballots have been counted. The only ones that could be counted after today are challenged ballots that are cleared, or insanely late ballots (hard to imagine there'll be more than a half-dozen of these.)

Even if all ~150 of these ballots were cleared, "No" would have to win them by a 2-to-1 clip. That appears to be basically impossible. That's a lot of "basically impossible." In media terms, it's time to call this for Yes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 19, 2013, 04:39:38 PM
http://www.kirotv.com/news/news/seattle-city-councilmember-elect-shares-radical-id/nbxbC/

Oh my God this is going to be the most entertaining few years ever


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 19, 2013, 09:20:22 PM
“We can re-tool the machines to produce mass transit like buses, instead of destructive, you know, war machines,” she told KIRO 7.

Oh my.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 20, 2013, 11:20:11 PM
yeah.  It's hard for me to imagine she's that f-ing ridiculous, considering she's a relatively respected Economics professor.  I'm pretty frustrated this is how Seattle chose to "shake things up."

"war machines."


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 21, 2013, 12:40:29 AM
Sawant did her (not terribly impressive, but fairly orthodox) dissertation on South Asian economic development, not on public, monetary, or labor economics. Specialization is hugely important in doctoral-level economics; an economist who studies industrial organization, for example, should not be assumed to be highly knowledgeable about international trade or environmental economics or vice versa. She has done little economic research otherwise, and hasn't, to the best of my knowledge, held a research-based academic position. I doubt she has done empirical studies to support most of her political positions; rather, he biography seems to indicate that she started economics to question economic inequality. While she may be intelligent, she doesn't appear to be terribly influenced by academic (empirical or theoretical) research on areas she speaks so loudly on, but rather almost purely by ideology.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Hnv1 on November 21, 2013, 07:15:04 AM
Well as a trotskyist (sawant) that is exactly what her ideology espouses, with that said she as many people left to socialism understand economic rules as man made that could be altered accordingly (that is why Trotskyism emphasise the permanent revolution and global socialist change and such).



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 21, 2013, 02:06:36 PM
Anyone would think you people had never had a conversation with a Trot before... :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on November 21, 2013, 03:30:47 PM
Trots in Portland are the worst and always wear flatcaps even though they have no relation to the European working class.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 22, 2013, 02:07:09 PM
KING 5 via The Stranger

"Here's what I think is so amazing: You're this little girl in India, and before you know it, you're on your way to being a city council person. Is that surprising?"

"What caste were you?"

"Will you end your sentences more quickly? 'Cause you are a talker."

"What do you have against corporations? What do you have against millionaires?"

http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2013/11/22/king-5s-linda-brill-interviews-kshama-sawant


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 26, 2013, 05:57:07 PM
I don't have final results for King or Wahkiakum County, but here are the best and worst showings for Initiative 522 (GMO labeling.)  Neither list is a surprise.  Crunchy progressives vs. farmers.

Langley - 74.46%
Port Townsend - 74.41%
Index - 73.91%
Seattle - 70.77%
Nespelem - 67.74%
Bellingham - 66.76%
Bainbridge Island - 65.50%
Twisp - 64.24%
Olympia - 62.91%
Friday Harbor - 62.89%
...
Odessa - 20.07%
Waitsburg - 19.88%
Pomeroy - 19.77%
Royal City - 19.15%
Colfax - 18.55%
Oakesdake - 18.18%
LaCrosse - 17.14%
St. John - 15.89%
Mansfield - 15.74%
Colton - 15.52%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 27, 2013, 05:25:14 PM
Still missing King and Wahkiakum for now, but here are the best/worst results for Eyman's I-517 (initiative about initiatives.)  Small towns in Eastern Washington top the "Yes" list, while Seattle suburbs top the "No" list, even before any results from King County (which was 72% No) are in.

Nespelem - 70.00%
Granger - 69.23%
Latah - 67.95%
Tieton - 67.35%
George - 66.67%
Marcus - 66.25%
Springdale - 65.15%
Wapato - 64.74%
Hatton - 63.64%
Northport - 63.37%
...
Normandy Park - 27.07%
Brier - 26.93%
Langley - 26.73%
Olympia - 25.75%
Mercer Island - 24.30%
Lake Forest Park - 24.00%
Bainbridge Island - 23.58%
Hunts Point - 22.56%
Seattle - 20.87%
Yarrow Point - 20.35%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 27, 2013, 05:32:34 PM
King County turnout map:

() (http://i.imgur.com/gXEuWU2.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 27, 2013, 05:38:27 PM
Green is above average and red is below average?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 28, 2013, 04:50:38 PM
Did they release turnout by precinct before the actual election results by precinct? Strange.

It seems to follow fairly predictable patterns. High-turnout in Seatac definitely sticks out, though. I'm also a little curious why turnout in the Maple Valley area was so high. They must have had some important local election the rest of us didn't care about.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 28, 2013, 11:35:14 PM
Nice maps... Do you have a color scale?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 29, 2013, 06:12:54 PM
Unfortunately, the software crashes whenever I try to add it.  Yellow is 50%.  Intervals of 5 from there.  I'll try to re-do them with the scale added ASAP.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 29, 2013, 06:15:03 PM
How many Murray/Sawant precincts were there?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 29, 2013, 06:28:52 PM
How many Murray/Sawant precincts were there?

188/952 precincts were Murray/Sawant.  The most extreme vote-splitting was in a precinct on Cap Hill, 54% Murray and 77% Sawant.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 29, 2013, 06:30:59 PM
Does the McGinn/Sawant-Murray/Conlin divide look pretty much like the McGinn-Mallahan split from four years ago?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LastVoter on November 29, 2013, 06:32:40 PM
Capitol Hill has some really terrible precints.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 29, 2013, 06:49:46 PM
Does the McGinn/Sawant-Murray/Conlin divide look pretty much like the McGinn-Mallahan split from four years ago?

Very much like, with Murray basically winning because he did better with highly socially liberal voters.  Not a big surprise.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 29, 2013, 07:06:33 PM
Does the McGinn/Sawant-Murray/Conlin divide look pretty much like the McGinn-Mallahan split from four years ago?

Very much like, with Murray basically winning because he did better with highly socially liberal voters.  Not a big surprise.

Sounds right.

As always, great work.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on November 29, 2013, 07:09:14 PM
One other: have you had a chance to calculate what percentage Sawant got in her council district?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 29, 2013, 07:32:34 PM
One other: have you had a chance to calculate what percentage Sawant got in her council district?

58.40%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 18, 2013, 07:05:49 PM
http://www.king5.com/news/local/Pastor-Ken-Hutcherson-dead-at-61-236459561.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Antioch Bible Church Pastor Ken Hutcherson dies
Pastor Ken Hutcherson of Antioch Bible Church in Redmond died Wednesday. He was 61.

Hutcherson had been battling cancer.

The founder of the 3,500-member Antioch Bible Church, Hutcherson spoke out against gay marriage and organized local and national rallies against it.

“Pastor Hutch” played college football and went on to play for the Seahawks, Dallas Cowboys, and San Diego Chargers.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 18, 2013, 11:07:55 PM
If I believed in Hell...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 20, 2013, 12:12:48 AM
http://blogs.seattletimes.com/today/2013/12/gay-vice-principal-loses-job-at-catholic-school-after-marrying/

::) ::) ::)

Encouraging show by the students though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 03, 2014, 03:16:08 AM
http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2014/01/02/the-balding-bearded-ultra-liberal-jewish-guy-seat-in-my-37th-legislative-district-just-came-open-hmm

what an annoying man


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 05, 2014, 07:18:07 PM
It looks like tensions are growing between Kshama Sawant and Ed Murray.  Murray chose to go public in response to an insenstivie quote by Sawant.

In yesterday's Seattle Times, Sawant implied that Murray issued an executive order setting a $15 minimum wage for City employees because he was "feeling the pressure from below":

Quote
Councilmember Kshama Sawant, who ran as a socialist on a platform of a $15 minimum wage for all workers, was moving into her office Friday. She said Murray’s move “shows the mayor’s office is feeling the pressure from below to act on the rhetoric from the campaign.”

Murray's response to the short quote is fairly irritable:

Quote
I sent the following email to Council-member Sawant in regards to yesterday's Seattle Times Story:

Councilmember Sawant
I was disappointed to read your quote in today's Seattle Times article that implied that I issued an executive order committing our City Departments to a $15 minimum wage for City personnel and providing a model to other cities how to proceed on this important policy commitment only reluctantly, under "pressure from below."

Actually, my decision to act quickly -- on my 3rd day in office -- was driven by my moral commitment, legislative history, and my personal experience growing up. That is what is driving me to accomplish the goal we are both committed to. My commitments during the campaign, including on the minimum wage issue, were just that -- sincere commitments -- not just rhetoric, as your quote implies.

You and I both share a strong and authentic desire to make progress for workers on the lower end of the pay scale in our city. I understand and respect that this desire of yours stems from a deep moral conviction and is consistent with your personal background and passion for issues of social and economic justice. So it is with mine, and my history as an elected leader who has been out in front of efforts to secure worker housing, double low-income housing, and stand against discrimination of all kinds --to name only a few examples.

We are thankful to serve a city were there is no scarcity of compassion and where no single leader holds the market on progress. It is by identifying our common commitments and our shared motivations for action that we can best deliver on the trust placed upon us by the people of Seattle to work together and move forward together on their behalf. I look forward to our continued dialogue on this and other issues important to both of us and to the people we as elected leaders are here to represented.
Regards,
Ed Murray

Above all, I think it's interesting that Murray decided to go public on this issue, which honestly was probably just Sawant trying to play up the efficacy of her base's passions.  It doesn't exactly suggest they're in close communication.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: henster on January 05, 2014, 07:24:57 PM
I can see Sawant having a bumpy term and going down in flames, voters just wanted an incumbent out and they got something worse she will have a short political career. And this $15 minimum wage is just pandering by Murray he will balk at enacting it city-wide and just do it for public workers even if it makes the ballot it will fail.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on January 12, 2014, 03:15:51 AM
It's tough being a traitor to both sides I'd imagine:

Pressures grow for state Senate’s maverick majority leader (http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2022650368_rodneytomxml.html)

By Andrew Garber
Seattle Times Olympia bureau
Originally published Saturday, January 11, 2014 at 3:53 PM


OLYMPIA — Sen. Rodney Tom is a majority leader without a party.

Democrats can’t forgive him for crossing party lines last year, along with Sen. Tim Sheldon, to give the GOP control of the state Senate. The party is targeting Tom in this year’s elections.

And some Republicans, who owe Tom big time for putting them in charge, say he could be replaced with a majority leader from their own party if they pick up at least one more seat in November.

With that cloud overhead, Tom goes into another legislative session Monday as the ostensible leader of an unwieldy coalition of 24 Republicans and two Democrats — himself and Sheldon.

Their priorities include pushing through a series of laws, including changes to the state’s workers’ compensation system and state pensions.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Zioneer on January 12, 2014, 02:39:13 PM
I imagine that voters hate party traitors more than party-switchers.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on January 12, 2014, 06:10:34 PM
Quote
Philip locker, of @cmkshama's political campaign, says @mayor_ed_murray's $15 effort may be too slow. "This year," he pledges.

the tensions, they MOUNT!

(This was, to be clear, at a press conference.  This thing is going about how I expected -- neither Murray nor Sawant has much reason to play friendly with the other.  The question is how much the cooperation disintegrates.  My guess is a lot.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on January 13, 2014, 11:12:30 AM
It's tough being a traitor to both sides I'd imagine:

Pressures grow for state Senate’s maverick majority leader (http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2022650368_rodneytomxml.html)

By Andrew Garber
Seattle Times Olympia bureau
Originally published Saturday, January 11, 2014 at 3:53 PM


OLYMPIA — Sen. Rodney Tom is a majority leader without a party.

Democrats can’t forgive him for crossing party lines last year, along with Sen. Tim Sheldon, to give the GOP control of the state Senate. The party is targeting Tom in this year’s elections.

And some Republicans, who owe Tom big time for putting them in charge, say he could be replaced with a majority leader from their own party if they pick up at least one more seat in November.

With that cloud overhead, Tom goes into another legislative session Monday as the ostensible leader of an unwieldy coalition of 24 Republicans and two Democrats — himself and Sheldon.

Their priorities include pushing through a series of laws, including changes to the state’s workers’ compensation system and state pensions.


Rodney Tom is at least somewhat too liberal for present day Republican party of Washington and too conservative - for Democratic...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 01, 2014, 01:49:06 PM
The special election for chair of the state Democratic Party is today. Things kick off at 1:30 PT. I wouldn't expect results until late afternoon/evening.

http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2014/01/02/the-balding-bearded-ultra-liberal-jewish-guy-seat-in-my-37th-legislative-district-just-came-open-hmm

what an annoying man

Oh God, I missed this. Please don't let this happen.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 01, 2014, 03:03:14 PM
Who actually makes it all the way down to Vancouver may also be a factor. It's not really convenient for anyone outside of Clark County.

My feeling is that Laurent has this locked down, but I've also heard people fairly insistent that Ravens is the frontrunner. Haven't heard anyone talking up Kainber.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 01, 2014, 06:24:50 PM
Ravens won by quite a lot.

Also, new thread title.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: sg0508 on February 01, 2014, 07:12:45 PM
Obviously, more happens during presidential years in WA state, but when was the last statewide race that the GOP carried in WA state? You look back at the 2012 maps, 2008 maps, 2004 maps, 2000 maps, etc and all you see is Democratic wins.  It's scary.  Same thing as OR.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 01, 2014, 07:14:25 PM
I don't know why that's scary, but the last major GOP statewide victory was in 1994 (Slade Gorton re-elected to the Senate).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on February 01, 2014, 08:57:29 PM
In recent years, McKenna's wins as AG are notable - especially his re-election in 2008.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on February 01, 2014, 09:08:44 PM
McKenna was uniquely suited to win in '04 and '08 - a moderate East King Republican for whom I cast my ballot for Governor. That was before East King started to shift blue (Atlas red) more rapidly and McKenna joined the Obamacare suit (ill-advised in WA) and started going to Tea Party rallies (even more ill-advised in WA).

The GOP's situation in WA is similar to what it will soon be in Virginia and has been in many Midwest states for a long time - consigned to rural areas where they are dominant while statewide wins are racked up in the major metro area, which swings D. There are still some East King County pubs who have a potential future (Andy Hill, Steve Litzow and Reagan Dunn, really), but the party has lost a lot of ground in the Seattle suburbs just in the past four or five years and is increasingly reliant on Eastern WA and the southwest. They'll need a new coalition to win statewide again anytime soon without a guy like McKenna.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on February 01, 2014, 11:28:40 PM
Obviously, more happens during presidential years in WA state, but when was the last statewide race that the GOP carried in WA state? You look back at the 2012 maps, 2008 maps, 2004 maps, 2000 maps, etc and all you see is Democratic wins.  It's scary.  Same thing as OR.

If i remember correctly - SoS race in 2012.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: sg0508 on February 02, 2014, 11:59:39 AM
Unlike it's southern neighbor though where the GOP cupboard is bare, the Republicans have actually put up some halfway decent candidates in WA State, but they still can't win.  Yes, we could make the argument that Gregoire stole the 2004 Gubernatorial race, but she won again in 2008 by a clear margin in Rossi re-match.  It also looks like the eastern most counties in the state are getting bluer as the years pass.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on February 02, 2014, 12:23:13 PM
Unlike it's southern neighbor though where the GOP cupboard is bare, the Republicans have actually put up some halfway decent candidates in WA State, but they still can't win.  Yes, we could make the argument that Gregoire stole the 2004 Gubernatorial race, but she won again in 2008 by a clear margin in Rossi re-match.  It also looks like the eastern most counties in the state are getting bluer as the years pass.

And Inslee, who might have been one of the dullest and least charismatic candidates to ever run for Governor, beat the GOP's best candidate in a generation in a year when the state trended R as a whole (admittedly not by much). The GOP's base is in the Eastern part of the state, specifically in the Tri-Cities, Yakima and the eastern and northern Spokane suburbs, and that makes their policies and outlook anathema even to moderate McKenna-Obama voters in King County, which is where elections are won in this state.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: IceSpear on February 02, 2014, 12:33:16 PM
So I know this is the Gubernatorial board, but I'm asking this here since this WA thread is enormous...

Are Dems even going to try to contest Reichert or Herrera Beutler's seats?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 02, 2014, 12:36:10 PM
They both have announced opponents, but neither are viable. Meanwhile, none of the freshman Democrats have opponents. Both parties are focused on the State Senate this year.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: sg0508 on February 02, 2014, 12:38:06 PM
There is no question that the GOP has some bad luck, particularly that gubernatorial races are less partisan and many minority parties across the country hold the statehouses in their respective states.  Of course, in WA state, these races are held during presidential years where democrats turn out in greater numbers and of course, there is always the "coming home" effect by the majority party in the end, which has hurt the Republicans over and over and over.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 02, 2014, 01:33:49 PM
Washington is a socially liberal state, but is much more centrist on economic issues. During the 90s and 00s, social issues tended to dominate political discussion. That's been changing recently and this shift towards economic issues could benefit Republicans. If WA Dems ever make a big move for a progressive income tax, I could see that potentially being the GOP's comeback moment.

Still, it's hard to imagine Murray or Cantwell going anywhere. I'm pretty sure Dow Constantine will be our next candidate for Governor after Inslee, and he will be tough to beat. Whether or not Inslee wins re-election remains to be seen - thus far he's been pretty unoffensive so I'm inclined to think he will win again.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 02, 2014, 03:04:45 PM
Andy Hill's Democratic challenger looks pretty strong on paper: http://sammamishreview.com/2014/01/26/matt-isehower-announces-senate-run


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 02, 2014, 03:20:37 PM
I hear good things from those who have met him.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on February 04, 2014, 01:18:39 AM
And a strong challenger for Rodney Tom emerges: http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2022830630_mcbridetomxml.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on February 04, 2014, 03:56:02 AM
And a strong challenger for Rodney Tom emerges: http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2022830630_mcbridetomxml.html

It's "top 2", so, he, who will win a moderate vote, will, probably, win it all


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on February 05, 2014, 10:43:52 AM
I'm not sure that there are really that many flippable seats on the map for the GOP, since they maximized their gains in 2010 and many D seats were drawn to be safer since then, but I do think that the D's have a good chance of knocking out Harris and O'Ban and (kind of) knocking out Tom, even though he's technically a Democrat. Just losing Tom would cause the MCC to collapse, it seems like, and I think there'll be at least one more flip.

I saw somewhere somebody talking about the Democrats flipping 4 to 5 seats, which I think is ludicrous, but if so maybe they could start with my local Senator, Michael Baumgardner... :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on February 11, 2014, 02:22:04 PM
Inslee suspends death penalty (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/11/washington-death-penalty-suspended_n_4768424.html?ncid=txtlnkushpmg00000037)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on February 11, 2014, 03:57:00 PM
Inslee suspends death penalty (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/11/washington-death-penalty-suspended_n_4768424.html?ncid=txtlnkushpmg00000037)


He's re-won my vote, but I'm afraid he might lose a few others.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on February 12, 2014, 01:09:23 AM
Inslee suspends death penalty (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/11/washington-death-penalty-suspended_n_4768424.html?ncid=txtlnkushpmg00000037)


He's re-won my vote, but I'm afraid he might lose a few others.

A LOT of others, you mean...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on February 12, 2014, 01:31:59 AM
Inslee suspends death penalty (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/11/washington-death-penalty-suspended_n_4768424.html?ncid=txtlnkushpmg00000037)


He's re-won my vote, but I'm afraid he might lose a few others.

A LOT of others, you mean...


Washington hasn't executed a prisoner in over 10 years. It's hardly a hot-button issue here.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on February 12, 2014, 04:09:30 AM
Washington hasn't executed a prisoner in over 10 years. It's hardly a hot-button issue here.

I know. But many will like to have such possibility for especially abhorent case..


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on February 12, 2014, 04:44:42 AM
Inslee suspends death penalty (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/11/washington-death-penalty-suspended_n_4768424.html?ncid=txtlnkushpmg00000037)


He's re-won my vote, but I'm afraid he might lose a few others.

A LOT of others, you mean...


Washington hasn't executed a prisoner in over 10 years. It's hardly a hot-button issue here.
Uhh, that's not true. Cal Coburn Brown, 2010?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on February 12, 2014, 10:45:17 AM
Inslee suspends death penalty (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/11/washington-death-penalty-suspended_n_4768424.html?ncid=txtlnkushpmg00000037)


He's re-won my vote, but I'm afraid he might lose a few others.

Uhh, that's not true.Cal Coburn Brown, 2010?

A LOT of others, you mean...


Washington hasn't executed a prisoner in over 10 years. It's hardly a hot-button issue here.

Good for him. I voted for McKenna in '12, but I like Inslee (so far). Better than Gregoire, at least...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 13, 2014, 01:11:30 PM
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/02/doc-hastings-retirement-103493.html?hp=l3

Didier for Congress!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 14, 2014, 06:51:44 PM
To the surprise of no one, State Senator Janéa Holmquist Newbry has formed an exploratory committee.

Meanwhile, the people cry out for Didier.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 21, 2014, 11:49:37 PM
What's the name the wind whispers to the wheat

From Pasco to the Okanogan?

Clint...

...Clint Didier.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 21, 2014, 11:52:35 PM
New entrant in WA-04: Dan Newhouse, former GOP state representative and Ag Director under Governor Gregoire. I actually like Newhouse quite a bit (for a Republican). I hope he wins.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on February 22, 2014, 12:25:29 AM
New entrant in WA-04: Dan Newhouse, former GOP state representative and Ag Director under Governor Gregoire. I actually like Newhouse quite a bit (for a Republican). I hope he wins.

I like Newhouse too.  I'm also worried about Clint Didier, and the inexplicably strong base he has in the Tri-Cities.  Congressman Clint Didier...ugh.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 26, 2014, 11:14:37 PM
Susan Hutchison did an interview with KUOW earlier this week and it's bizarre: http://kuow.org/post/susan-hutchison-republicans-have-been-too-weak-too-long

She brags about a robocall she recorded, talks about how she says things "candidates can't say", favorably compares the state party to Wal-Mart... I'm only halfway through listening.

ETA: There is apparently a "natural connection" between Latino voters and the Republican Party.

ETA part 2: They're "terrific citizens" omg omg omg


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 04, 2014, 09:04:32 PM
Kirkland bans pot stores in rich neighborhoods: http://www.kirklandwa.gov/Assets/City+Council/Council+Packets/020414/9a_PublicHearings.pdf

Funny/depressing given they've included a convenient map and table showing that part of the city voted for it most strongly, but I guess it's only okay if they are in poor neighborhoods! ::)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on March 04, 2014, 10:33:52 PM
NIMBY's gonna NIMBY


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 04, 2014, 10:52:17 PM
Pretty amusing night down in Olympia. The State Senate is currently in session but in recess. They're unable to vote on their supplemental budget proposal because a "satirical amendment" accidentally got added in committee and now they can't figure out how to take it out.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 06, 2014, 03:11:17 PM
This ain't good: http://www.thenewstribune.com/2014/03/06/3082010/former-democrat-mark-miloscia.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 06, 2014, 08:40:36 PM
Do you think he's favored against Eide?

He was never the good kind of moderate, and he's probably just bitter he got demolished in the State Auditor primary.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 07, 2014, 08:56:37 PM
I wouldn't say he's favored, but it'll be a tough race for her. This is Pete von Reichbauer's old district after all!

I'm not really sure of any politician in the United States with views like Miloscia's. Dan Lipinski is the closest thing, but I think he's more conservative on fiscal and economic issues than Miloscia is.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on March 07, 2014, 10:19:56 PM
Maybe not THE dullest midterm (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2013/11/22/dueling-gun-initiatives-likely-to-make-2014-ballot-in-washington/)


I-594 will create background checks on ALL gun sales. I-591 would limit background checks except for those required by federal law. I know which one I'm voting for, but I could see either one passing.

Dueling initiatives are always fun.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 07, 2014, 11:58:35 PM
I wouldn't say he's favored, but it'll be a tough race for her. This is Pete von Reichbauer's old district after all!

So the district has a history of this sort of thing. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: International Brotherhood of Bernard on March 08, 2014, 12:05:17 AM
Maybe not THE dullest midterm (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2013/11/22/dueling-gun-initiatives-likely-to-make-2014-ballot-in-washington/)


I-594 will create background checks on ALL gun sales. I-591 would limit background checks except for those required by federal law. I know which one I'm voting for, but I could see either one passing.

Dueling initiatives are always fun.
Vote yes on both for the lulz


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 08, 2014, 01:19:56 AM
Apparently Miloscia is still a Democratic PCO. Lulz


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on March 09, 2014, 01:20:45 PM
I would respect these people more if they just ran as independents. But I realize that's easier said than done to some extent.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 10, 2014, 06:09:18 PM
Eide just announced she's retiring. Sigh.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on March 12, 2014, 06:25:00 AM
I think Bill Bryant is running for Governor. Or some other statewide office. He spoke at the San Juan County GOP annual dinner this past weekend, and the Whatcom County one the week before that. Hard to believe he's doing it just for kicks.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on April 14, 2014, 02:33:39 PM
Rodney Tom is dropping his re-election bid (http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2014/04/14/state-senate-majority-leader-rodney-tom-drops-re-election-bid/), citing health problems and caring for his elderly father.


Good riddance


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: windjammer on April 14, 2014, 02:43:30 PM
Rodney Tom is dropping his re-election bid (http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2014/04/14/state-senate-majority-leader-rodney-tom-drops-re-election-bid/), citing health problems and caring for his elderly father.


Good riddance

D+1?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on April 14, 2014, 02:50:27 PM
Rodney Tom is dropping his re-election bid (http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2014/04/14/state-senate-majority-leader-rodney-tom-drops-re-election-bid/), citing health problems and caring for his elderly father.


Good riddance

D+1?

Most likely yeah. It's a Lean-Likey D seat, and I doubt anyone joins the MCC after this.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 14, 2014, 09:40:09 PM
I think McBride may have been favored against him already, but I would consider that seat Lean D now, which would leave Rs/Sheldon at 25-24.

Not sure what the next most likely D pick-up would be. Maybe the 28th?

Andy Hill has raised a ton of money (he'll probably run for Congress, but maybe not this year).

Fain's seat is usually close. Democrats would need to hold everything (including the 30th!). Hmm.

Summary please, Meeker!! :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 14, 2014, 11:42:24 PM
Well this is very welcome news :)

In my opinion we've now got the 48th pretty well locked down. I think there's a good chance Cyrus Habib jumps up to the Senate race (and then McBride drops down to Habib's House seat).

I'm very nervous about the 30th. The 44th is also at risk (Hobbs recently got a rich guy opponent).

Our best shots at a pick-up are the 45th and the 28th, though I'm not sure in which order. The 6th is interesting as well. Our candidate is raising good money and Baumgartner has had... issues.

The 35th is a bit of a question mark - the real Democrat is running a serious campaign and there's a Republican in the race. Sheldon only needs 34% to make it to the general though, which he should be able to get.

I don't think we have much of any shot at the 26th or the 47th. We don't even have a candidate in the latter.

I guess I'd say 60-40 odds the Senate is controlled by Republicans + Sheldon next year.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on April 15, 2014, 12:13:22 AM
If Sheldon were the swing voter again, would he allow a Republican to be majority leader? Would he want to be majority leader? Are there any Democrats he would support for it?

Andy Hill has raised more money than anyone else in any district, has been generally inoffensive, and the district is only marginally Democratic at best... I'm having trouble seeing him lose.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 15, 2014, 12:30:10 AM
Sheldon wasn't really a part of the Democratic caucus even before the MCC came to be... it's hard for me to see him giving control of the chamber back to the Democrats. I bet at this point he'd vote for a Republican to be majority leader, perhaps not Schoesler though (maybe Hill? Dammeier? I think Fain is running for AG so probably not him). I've got no idea if Sheldon himself would want the job.

The only two Democrats I could see him supporting to take Tom's place would be Hobbs and Hatfield, but I don't think they'd go for it. It's also possible Republicans take the majority without needing Sheldon's vote, and I'm not sure what he or they would do in that circumstance.

You're probably correct on Hill now that I think about it more.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 15, 2014, 08:56:37 AM
Well this is very welcome news :)

In my opinion we've now got the 48th pretty well locked down. I think there's a good chance Cyrus Habib jumps up to the Senate race (and then McBride drops down to Habib's House seat).

I'm very nervous about the 30th. The 44th is also at risk (Hobbs recently got a rich guy opponent).

Our best shots at a pick-up are the 45th and the 28th, though I'm not sure in which order. The 6th is interesting as well. Our candidate is raising good money and Baumgartner has had... issues.

The 35th is a bit of a question mark - the real Democrat is running a serious campaign and there's a Republican in the race. Sheldon only needs 34% to make it to the general though, which he should be able to get.

I don't think we have much of any shot at the 26th or the 47th. We don't even have a candidate in the latter.

I guess I'd say 60-40 odds the Senate is controlled by Republicans + Sheldon next year.

Baumgartner is a gigantic hack. I can't wait for him to go down in flames (I live in his district, most definitely voting for Cowan. There are a lot of affluent Ds up here on the South Hill who probably won't vote for Baumgartner again.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on April 15, 2014, 10:47:26 PM
Maybe not THE dullest midterm (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2013/11/22/dueling-gun-initiatives-likely-to-make-2014-ballot-in-washington/)


I-594 will create background checks on ALL gun sales. I-591 would limit background checks except for those required by federal law. I know which one I'm voting for, but I could see either one passing.

Dueling initiatives are always fun.
Vote yes on both for the lulz

Washington voters might just do that (http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2014/04/15/new-poll-opposing-gun-measures-both-have-majority-support/)

A new poll shows support for I-594 (Pro background checks) is at 72%, but I-591 (Anti background checks) has 55% support.


Funnily enough, I-594 has majority support among gun owners (71%) and Republicans (68%).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 19, 2014, 05:33:36 PM
Sheldon says he's sticking with the MCC/GOP/Forces of Darkness: http://crosscut.com/2014/04/15/under-the-dome/119647/lone-democrat-senate-majority-no-problem/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on April 19, 2014, 09:54:12 PM
Also, the first fundraising numbers in WA-04 have arrived. Dan Newhouse leads with $162k raised followed by Didier with $103k. Janéa Holmquist Newbry is in third with $62k.

George Cicotte (lawyer from the Tri-Cities) and Brad Peck each raised less than $30k but loaned their campaigns $75k.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on April 25, 2014, 12:34:35 PM
State Rep. Cyrus Habib will run for Tom's Senate seat, while McBride will drop down to Habib's house seat (http://www.seattlemet.com/news-and-profiles/publicola/articles/early-jolt-april-2014)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Zioneer on April 25, 2014, 04:59:23 PM
State Rep. Cyrus Habib will run for Tom's Senate seat, while McBride will drop down to Habib's house seat (http://www.seattlemet.com/news-and-profiles/publicola/articles/early-jolt-april-2014)

Ha, the Washington Republicans crying "sexism" when both of Washinton's Senators being women, and the previous governor being a woman.

Also, I think Habib will be a great Congressional candidate a couple of years down the line.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on April 25, 2014, 06:42:31 PM
Roll Call has an article out about the bench both sides have in Washington, (http://www.rollcall.com/news/young_delegation_keeps_washington_state_opportunities_at_a_minimum-232393-1.html?pos=hbtxt) and how the state's relatively young delegation will likely prevent a lot of people moving up for a while.


The only dumb mistake I notice is they mention Cyrus Habib and State Sen. Marko Liias as potential successors to Jim McDermott should he retire, but Habib lives in DelBene's district and Liias lives in Larsen's.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 15, 2014, 08:04:09 PM
Bump for filing week??

The congressional races look pretty dull aside from WA-4, which will probably only be interesting in the primary unless it ends up being R vs R, but there are enough Republicans running that I would guess a Democrat will make it to the general.

Larsen only has an independent challenger (and OWS type) so far, and Smith only has a Democratic opponent.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on May 15, 2014, 10:58:18 PM
Heck and DelBene have decent opponents, but no one that will win.


Kilmer's only filed opponent is an Independent W. "Graybeard" McPherson, a Green Party type from Port Angeles running on environmental issues. There's supposedly a Republican Some Dude from Bremerton who is supposed to file soon, but I haven't heard anything more about that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 16, 2014, 11:38:58 PM
One of the socialist organizers behind Sawant's campaign is running against Frank Chopp. Sawant herself got 29% against Chopp in 2012. She won the 43rd with 57% in 2013.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on May 16, 2014, 11:43:45 PM
One of the socialist organizers behind Sawant's campaign is running against Frank Chopp. Sawant herself got 29% against Chopp in 2012. She won the 43rd with 57% in 2013.

Don't think it goes anywhere. Unlike Conlin, progressives don't really have any gripes with Chopp from what I know.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 17, 2014, 09:29:43 PM
The Stranger says SA is running against Chopp (http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2014/05/16/jess-spear-running-against-house-speaker-frank-chopp), although I don't see her on the SoS filing website.

Unusual party names that will appear on the ballot:
Republicanspirit Party
Framer Party (?)
Centralist Party (lol)
Marijuana Party (What's the point?)
Work and Wealth Party (Goodspaceguy)
Human Rights Party (yawn)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: MaxQue on May 17, 2014, 10:01:30 PM
I found that article about the Republicanspirit lady: http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/06/28/leslie-klein-im-running-to-represent-only-people-not-planets (http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/06/28/leslie-klein-im-running-to-represent-only-people-not-planets). Worrying.

Micah Anderson, the candidate of the Framer Party is the founder and was the President of the Hashford Compassion Club in Tacoma in 2011. (so, a pot guy).

Centralist is Ronnie Rae, a criminal law defence attorney in Spokane. He ran for District Judge for Stevens County in 2010 and badly lost.

Human Rights Party (http://thehumanrightsparty.org/ (http://thehumanrightsparty.org/)) claims principles from a Stéphane Hessel essay (for a bio of Stéphane Hessel: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St%C3%A9phane_Hessel (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St%C3%A9phane_Hessel)).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on May 18, 2014, 01:17:39 PM
The SA candidate is listed on the King County website. Not sure why she isn't on the SOS page.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 25, 2014, 12:24:29 PM
http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2014/05/21/pam-roachs-democratic-opponent-conservative-whos-called-for-obama-impeachment/

Pam Roach is always good for entertainment value.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: wa_framer on May 31, 2014, 02:32:45 AM
Please allow me to shed some light on Micah James Anderson, Framer Party, 27th District, AKA "Pot Guy"

Mr. Anderson, has dedicated over 15 years to Organizational Communications tactics within the private and not for profit sectors allowing for the development of critical skills required for maintaining a positive direction. 

Mr. Anderson, is a proud Pierce College Alumni, Visual Communications Pioneer with Washington State University, focusing on  Psychology, Media, and the Arts.  While preparing for the LSATS, Mr. Anderson finds himself regularly utilizing the practical application of civil and business law.

When asked why he is running for office, Mr. Anderson stated "After, I found myself reading our State’s constitution to elected officials, I knew something has to give and it will not be more of our rights, liberties, and freedom."

He continued "As a Framer, I am not reinventing policy.  Rather returning to a government committed to preserving the ideals of America, with a dedication to liberty, objectivity, virtue, logic, and reason while representing We The People!

Cheers!

MJA


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: MaxQue on May 31, 2014, 03:57:24 PM
That explains why I received an email from him, while living in Quebec. I was very shocked. I apologize to Mr. Anderson if he was offended and wish him good luck for the August 5th election.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: wa_framer on May 31, 2014, 09:15:45 PM
Not offended at all, I am just a stickler for first impressions. What offends me is the number of uninformed elected officials in Washington State.  We The People had things right the First time!  We need to stop handing out felonies like candy, stop passing the buck, and start taking responsibility while holding our government accountable for their actions. 

Thank you for the kind words of support.  This is my first attempt at the big show!  I look forward to keeping everyone posted.  Perhaps I will be able to add some life to the election and liberty to the people! 

Cheers,

MJA


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on May 31, 2014, 09:44:38 PM
I am sooo glad I don't live in Washington state, because I don't know how I could stand living in what is probably the most liberal state in the country (in terms of policies.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on June 01, 2014, 02:04:24 PM
The voters' guide is here! http://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on June 01, 2014, 03:24:48 PM
I am sooo glad I don't live in Washington state, because I don't know how I could stand living in what is probably the most liberal state in the country (in terms of policies.)


I'm glad you don't live here either.



The voters' guide is here! http://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/


Huh, looks like the GOP finally got a candidate for WA-06. Kilmer will face Marty McClendon, a real estate broker from Gig Harbor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Cobbler on June 08, 2014, 12:48:54 PM
I am sooo glad I don't live in Washington state, because I don't know how I could stand living in what is probably the most liberal state in the country (in terms of policies.)

Despite the natural beauty, culture, and artistic and economic activity Washington produces, it have gay marriage and marijuana so it is a terrible place to live. [/OldiesFreak]


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: wa_framer on June 08, 2014, 03:55:25 PM
I am sooo glad I don't live in Washington state, because I don't know how I could stand living in what is probably the most liberal state in the country (in terms of policies.)

Despite the natural beauty, culture, and artistic and economic activity Washington produces, it have gay marriage and marijuana so it is a terrible place to live. [/OldiesFreak]

The two party political system is just one of the many self-fulfilling prophecies our Forefathers feared.   A true republic is not intended to be a society based upon one side or the other but rather free will.  

I appreciate all the many opportunities to practice free will Washington has to offer. Such as the freedom to choose a partner without prejudice and the ability to practice natural medicine.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on June 08, 2014, 05:42:47 PM
I am sooo glad I don't live in Washington state, because I don't know how I could stand living in what is probably the most liberal state in the country (in terms of policies.)

Despite the natural beauty, culture, and artistic and economic activity Washington produces, it have gay marriage and marijuana so it is a terrible place to live. [/OldiesFreak]
It also has assisted suicide and blanket primaries, and it hasn't elected a GOP governor since 1980.  I admire the other things you mentioned, but it would be an absolute nightmare for me politically.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 11, 2014, 05:01:02 AM
Hey, Micah!  Former North End Tacoma resident myself, born and raised.  I just moved out of the 27th last year (although I'm posting from there now).  Welcome to the forum.  A lot of 27th folks have asked me about your candidacy, so it's kind of a trip to see you here :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on July 03, 2014, 01:06:37 PM
Unfortunately, the software crashes whenever I try to add it.  Yellow is 50%.  Intervals of 5 from there.  I'll try to re-do them with the scale added ASAP.

Alcon, did you delete your 2013 maps? Why? :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on July 03, 2014, 03:27:50 PM
I am sooo glad I don't live in Washington state, because I don't know how I could stand living in what is probably the most liberal state in the country (in terms of policies.)

Despite the natural beauty, culture, and artistic and economic activity Washington produces, it have gay marriage and marijuana so it is a terrible place to live. [/OldiesFreak]
It also has assisted suicide and blanket primaries, and it hasn't elected a GOP governor since 1980.  I admire the other things you mentioned, but it would be an absolute nightmare for me politically.

What is so awful about blanket primaries?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 24, 2014, 07:24:20 PM
lol

http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20140724/NEWS01/140729487/State-Rep.-Hope-to-resign-over-out-of-state-voter-registration

Rep. Mike Hope (R-Snohomish) is resigning because he registered to vote (probably accidentally) in Ohio, where he's rumored to have his primary residence.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 25, 2014, 09:03:29 AM
lol

http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20140724/NEWS01/140729487/State-Rep.-Hope-to-resign-over-out-of-state-voter-registration

Rep. Mike Hope (R-Snohomish) is resigning because he registered to vote (probably accidentally) in Ohio, where he's rumored to have his primary residence.

Oh jeeze.

In other State GOP shenanigans news...

http://crosscut.com/2014/07/16/elections/121037/pam-roach-and-challenger-sharing-party-and-distast/

Also, who else has gotten their ballot and sent it in?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on July 26, 2014, 12:12:02 AM
I am sooo glad I don't live in Washington state, because I don't know how I could stand living in what is probably the most liberal state in the country (in terms of policies.)

Despite the natural beauty, culture, and artistic and economic activity Washington produces, it have gay marriage and marijuana so it is a terrible place to live. [/OldiesFreak]
It also has assisted suicide and blanket primaries, and it hasn't elected a GOP governor since 1980.  I admire the other things you mentioned, but it would be an absolute nightmare for me politically.

What is so awful about blanket primaries?

IMHO - nothing. On the contrary - in number of cases they give moderates  (outnumbered by far left in democratic primaries and by far right - in republican) at least a say in determining, who will be next elected official from given district. Otherwise they (as myself frequently) are forced to hold their nose and vote not for a candidate they like most, but - AGAINST candidate they hate most.. So i am absolutely FOR them.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on July 27, 2014, 03:03:02 AM
lol

http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20140724/NEWS01/140729487/State-Rep.-Hope-to-resign-over-out-of-state-voter-registration

Rep. Mike Hope (R-Snohomish) is resigning because he registered to vote (probably accidentally) in Ohio, where he's rumored to have his primary residence.

Oh jeeze.

In other State GOP shenanigans news...

http://crosscut.com/2014/07/16/elections/121037/pam-roach-and-challenger-sharing-party-and-distast/

Also, who else has gotten their ballot and sent it in?

I sent it in day one (Friday).  When a Metropolitan Parks District formation is the most interesting thing on the ballot, you know it's a dull year.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 27, 2014, 12:37:17 PM
lol

http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20140724/NEWS01/140729487/State-Rep.-Hope-to-resign-over-out-of-state-voter-registration

Rep. Mike Hope (R-Snohomish) is resigning because he registered to vote (probably accidentally) in Ohio, where he's rumored to have his primary residence.

Oh jeeze.

In other State GOP shenanigans news...

http://crosscut.com/2014/07/16/elections/121037/pam-roach-and-challenger-sharing-party-and-distast/

Also, who else has gotten their ballot and sent it in?

I sent it in day one (Friday).  When a Metropolitan Parks District formation is the most interesting thing on the ballot, you know it's a dull year.

Oooooooooooooh exciting. You must be in Seattle proper then. We've at least got Bumgarner vs. Cowan over here, but nothing much else.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 30, 2014, 07:56:49 PM
Found this gem on RRH:

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2014/07/29/gop-democratic-senate-candidate-too-republican/



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 02, 2014, 12:18:06 PM
Good writeup on Crosscut on the state of the Senate races:

http://crosscut.com/2014/08/01/elections/121275/senate-primary-preview-john-stang/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CT27 on August 04, 2014, 07:20:04 PM
Not sure if this is the right forum/thread, but here goes:

Since almost all statewide offices are "D" here in WA, do you think WA would sooner be likely to have a GOP governor or U.S. Senator?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 04, 2014, 09:07:00 PM
Not sure if this is the right forum/thread, but here goes:

Since almost all statewide offices are "D" here in WA, do you think WA would sooner be likely to have a GOP governor or U.S. Senator?

Governor, in all likelihood, even though ironically WA had a GOP Senator more recently than they did a Governor (Slade Gorton lost in 2000, as opposed to John Spellman who lost in 1984). Rossi was 130 votes away from winning in 2004, he probably would have won in 2008 but for the financial crash and Obama coattails, and McKenna was favored for 2012 at one point and was the best Republican candidate in a generation facing a "meh" Dem, though he made some serious missteps (Obamacare lawsuit and Tea Party rallies don't go over well in WA, believe it or not). A bad year for Democrats atop the ticket could swing the Gov Mansion in Olympia to the GOP.

The Senate, meanwhile, has two powerful and popular incumbents in Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell. Murray survived two good GOP years in 2004 and 2010 against solid candidates (Nethercutt and Rossi) while Cantwell unseated a two-term incumbent in 2000 and hasn't looked back since. Both Senators will likely hold their seats for as long as they wish.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 05, 2014, 11:44:41 PM
If the primary results are any indication, the Senate will remain 26-23, with the 30th and 48th districts canceling each other out. A fairly predictable result.

The 26th district looks to be a pretty close three-way at the moment, though Sheldon is hanging on to second place right now. Probably the most interesting result to watch.

WA-4 looks like it will be Didier (lol) vs. Newhouse. I imagine independents and Democrats will giv Newhouse the victory in November, but who knows.

Jess Spear has been crushed by a delightfully massive margin.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 11, 2014, 07:05:36 PM
We're better than this, guys.  Stop being disappointing adults and start discussing politics on the internets!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 11, 2014, 10:57:29 PM
26-23 or 25-24 in favor of GOP is likely. I think the 30th is not a totally lost cause, but it doesn't look good and the 48th is probably the only pickup as of now. Still, the suburbs could break Dem I guess. Whatever chance the D's probably had in the 6th is likely gone with I-594 on the ballot.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on September 04, 2014, 09:32:41 AM
This could get interesting:

http://crosscut.com/2014/09/03/education/121749/supreme-court-pushes-legislature-mcleary-johnstang/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on September 08, 2014, 06:55:43 PM
Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers is implicated in ethics scandal by former aide:

http://www.spokesman.com/blogs/spincontrol/2014/sep/08/former-mcmorris-rodgers-aide-says-scandal-investigation-expanding/ (http://www.spokesman.com/blogs/spincontrol/2014/sep/08/former-mcmorris-rodgers-aide-says-scandal-investigation-expanding/)

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2014/09/08/former-aide-for-cathy-mcmorris-rodgers-breaks-silence-on-ethics-case/ (http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2014/09/08/former-aide-for-cathy-mcmorris-rodgers-breaks-silence-on-ethics-case/)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 19, 2014, 03:56:05 PM
Is there any good reason for voting for I-1351?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 19, 2014, 09:57:10 PM
Is there any good reason for voting for I-1351?

"To send a message."

...Which seems silly to me, since I don't think the legislature is lacking in signals that they need to fully fund education, and this has a bunch of additional strings attached that wouldn't help with that effort anyway.

Even the hardcore liberals I know are 50/50 on this.  It's amazing how well it's polling statewide  I've never seen a measure with such a huge gap between the politically educated and the voters who just read the Voters' Pamphlet.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 24, 2014, 01:50:14 PM
There was a shooting at a high school near my hometown. (http://blogs.seattletimes.com/today/2014/10/shooting-reported-at-marysville-pilchuck-high-school/) Up to eight people, including the shooter may have been shot.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on October 30, 2014, 02:41:52 PM
The Washington Poll was released for KCTS9 yesterday.  As many of you know this poll is performed by the University of Washington on a yearly (or nearly yearly basis).

Would definitely post a link to the full results for you guys, but it looks like I am below the post number threshold to paste links.  You can find it pretty easily through Google.  You can also go to the KCTS 9 website and find by clicking "Election 2014" under the programs tab.

Disappointed in the survey this year.  Would have been great if they actually polled the house races rather than just asking about initiatives.  I guess the one nice thing is we have some confirmation that Elway Poll wasn't crazy when it said that it really is a possibility that both gun initiatives pass.

Also love the wording of question 34, "The America that you know and love isn't changing too fast, and will never change..."  Agree or Disagree?   What if there isn't much to love about the current America and you want it to change?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 30, 2014, 03:42:15 PM
The Washington Poll was released for KCTS9 yesterday.  As many of you know this poll is performed by the University of Washington on a yearly (or nearly yearly basis).

Would definitely post a link to the full results for you guys, but it looks like I am below the post number threshold to paste links.  You can find it pretty easily through Google.  You can also go to the KCTS 9 website and find by clicking "Election 2014" under the programs tab.

Disappointed in the survey this year.  Would have been great if they actually polled the house races rather than just asking about initiatives.  I guess the one nice thing is we have some confirmation that Elway Poll wasn't crazy when it said that it really is a possibility that both gun initiatives pass.

Also love the wording of question 34, "The America that you know and love isn't changing too fast, and will never change..."  Agree or Disagree?   What if there isn't much to love about the current America and you want it to change?

I assume you mean this (http://kcts9.org/programs/sites/default/files/images/shows/KCTSPOLL14_Results.pdf)? It's a nice LaTeX file.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 01, 2014, 03:11:12 PM
Nothing too surprising in the Washington Poll, although Inslee's favorables are higher than I would have guessed (54-29). 

Interesting to note presidential candidate ratings as well:
Clinton: 55-38
Cristie: 33-40
Rubio: 27-27
Biden: 43-43
Cruz: 25-33
Ryan: 29-34


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: IceSpear on November 01, 2014, 03:12:49 PM
Nothing too surprising in the Washington Poll, although Inslee's favorables are higher than I would have guessed (54-29). 

Interesting to note presidential candidate ratings as well:
Clinton: 55-38
Cristie: 33-40
Rubio: 27-27
Biden: 43-43
Cruz: 25-33
Ryan: 29-34

Looks like Hilldawg is #dominating in Washington!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 01, 2014, 07:30:53 PM
Nothing too surprising in the Washington Poll, although Inslee's favorables are higher than I would have guessed (54-29). 

Interesting to note presidential candidate ratings as well:
Clinton: 55-38
Cristie: 33-40
Rubio: 27-27
Biden: 43-43
Cruz: 25-33
Ryan: 29-34

If Inslee can maintain those favorables over the next legislative session, he should be fine. I don't see the GOP running a candidate nearly as strong as McKenna in '16.

Looks like Hilldawg is #dominating in Washington!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 05, 2014, 06:28:54 AM
Looks like the State Senate is staying 26-23 as expected. It would appear Ds are currently holding onto the state house 51-48, with a potential Haigh loss resulting in 50-49. I have no idea how late ballots will trend this year but I haven't noticed a potential 50th seat for Republicans.

17-1 (Stonier, D)
R up 525 votes

25-1 (Morrell, D)
R up 1353 votes

26-2 (Seaquist, D)
R up 78 votes

28-2 (Open, D)
R up 69 votes

35-1 (Haigh, D)
D up 223 votes


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 05, 2014, 08:28:43 PM
Really hoping I-1351 stays No. I'm not sure if it will or not.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Nichlemn on November 05, 2014, 08:31:52 PM
Does it look like the R + renegade D coalition will hold in the state Senate?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 05, 2014, 08:42:12 PM
Does it look like the R + renegade D coalition will hold in the state Senate?

It went from 24+2 to 23,  to 25+1 to 23. So the coalition is still 26-23 but official members of the Republican Party now hold a majority either way.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 05, 2014, 08:48:56 PM
Does it look like the R + renegade D coalition will hold in the state Senate?

It went from 24+2 to 23,  to 25+1 to 23. So the coalition is still 26-23 but official members of the Republican Party now hold a majority either way.

And to make it extra interesting, Rodney Tom retiring means Mark Schoesler becomes Majority Leader. Him and his district are both MUCH more conservative than Tom.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on November 06, 2014, 04:23:15 PM
The new cycle begins

Dave Reichert is believed to be gearing up for a campaign against Inslee (http://www.seattlemet.com/news-and-profiles/publicola/articles/morning-fizz-octobercablereichert-2014)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 06, 2014, 09:54:48 PM
The new cycle begins

Dave Reichert is believed to be gearing up for a campaign against Inslee (http://www.seattlemet.com/news-and-profiles/publicola/articles/morning-fizz-octobercablereichert-2014)

Reichert will/would be a disaster. Anyone who almost lost to DARCY BURNER would get eaten alive in a statewide contest. McKenna at least won statewide twice with Dems winning by big margins at the top of the ticket and didn't have votes on record for the Ryan budget and other House GOP nonsense.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 07, 2014, 12:32:28 AM
Andy Hill would be a stronger candidate than Reichert, IMO.

Looks like the State Senate is staying 26-23 as expected. It would appear Ds are currently holding onto the state house 51-48, with a potential Haigh loss resulting in 50-49. I have no idea how late ballots will trend this year but I haven't noticed a potential 50th seat for Republicans.

17-1 (Stonier, D)
R up 525 votes

25-1 (Morrell, D)
R up 1353 votes

26-2 (Seaquist, D)
R up 78 votes

28-2 (Open, D)
R up 69 votes

35-1 (Haigh, D)
D up 223 votes

The Democrat is now leading the 28th by 240 votes, but Haigh is now behind by 157 votes. Looking like 51-48 House.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 16, 2014, 05:37:04 PM
Looking ahead to 2015/2016 (mostly to have some discussion in this thread until some real news comes out):

In 2015, the big ticket item is the city council race in Seattle, contested for the first time in districts as opposed to at-large. There'll be 7 district-elected councilmembers and 2 at-large. The big action here will be between the establishment D's and the Socialists in the Kshama Sawant camp. Sawant seems to be popular in a polarized sort of way, and her strongest possible challenger took a post at the ACLU. It'll be interesting to see which current councilmembers survive/continue on into the next council. Odds are, we'll see a City Council even further left of the current one come January 2016.

There'll be elections in Bellevue and Spokane, too. In 2011, the Bellevue city council elections essentially boiled down to pro or anti-East Link, with Kemper Freeman trying (and failing) to oust the pro-LRT candidates. With that mostly a settled issue at that point, and with liberals knocking off a conservative councilmember and coming close to taking out a second in 2013, look for the more left-leaning members of the council to be playing defense once again, but with a less salient issue defining the elections.

Over here in Spokane, we also are electing the Mayor in addition to several city council slots. Since early last year, the City Council has had a liberal majority, and after the resignation of a conservative council member this summer, the City Council has a veto-proof majority, the importance of which was evidenced when Mayor David Condon vetoed an anti-sprawl ordinance passed by the council this last winter. The Condon reelection race is the big ticket here - no Spokane mayor has won reelection since the city switched to a strong mayor system. Condon, a former chief of staff to Congresswoman Cathy McMorris-Rodgers, is opposed both on the right and the left. Many conservative Republicans regard him as a cronyist, spendthrift RINO who has stocked City Hall with his buddies and who has never worked in a job outside of government, and most Democrats regard him as a cronyist hack bought-and-paid for by Spokane's VERY conservative construction lobby. The strongest candidate, Council President Ben Stuckart, has ruled out a run in order to run for reelection. It is not clear who will challenge Condon from the left, and the disciplined GOP operation in Spokane County is likely to run-interference on any challenge from the right.

The other potential big race in 2015 is in the 30th LD, where incumbent Position 2 Rep. Roger Freeman passed away a few days before the election (RIP) but was reelected posthumously. 30th LD Democrats will nominate his successor to be approved by the King and Pierce County Councils. With the State House control on the razor's edge, the special election this fall to fill the seat could be a big target for both sides.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 19, 2014, 03:34:18 AM
From my congressional thread:

2014 House elections by county in Washington State

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5422_19_11_14_3_24_05.png)

Democrats combined only got 51.6% of the vote statewide.  Pierce County was the bellwether this cycle being 51% Democrat, with Dems getting 68% in King, 56% in Snohomish, and 59% in Thurston.   WA-4 was between two Republicans, which is why you see so many 90%+ GOP counties in the central part of the state and such.   


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 26, 2014, 09:11:43 PM
Top I-594 towns:

Seattle - 87.91%
Bainbridge Island - 83.60%
Langley - 82.86%
Mercer Island - 81.83%
Port Townsend - 81.61%
Lake Forest Park - 79.79%
Wapato - 79.23%
Shoreline - 78.34%
Yarrow Point - 77.66%
Beaux Arts Village - 77.33%
...
Oakville - 25.88%
Ione - 22.98%
Krupp - 22.22%
Lamont - 20.83%
Starbuck - 20.29%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 29, 2014, 04:49:55 PM
No maps? :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 29, 2014, 04:55:32 PM
Surprised that Oakville voted so heavily against it. Interesting to see how sharp the split is between Langley and Oakville.

A bit surprised not to see Bellingham on the top list too.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 29, 2014, 04:56:59 PM
Surprised that Oakville voted so heavily against it. Interesting to see how sharp the split is between Langley and Oakville.

A bit surprised not to see Bellingham on the top list too.

You might be confusing Oakville with Oak Harbor.

Yarrow Point in the top ten is interesting.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 29, 2014, 05:38:57 PM
Yeah, Oakville is a small town between Olympia and Hoquiam/Aberdeen.  Oak Harbor was basically tied (50.1% No), but it's a way different town than Langley.  Lots of retired and current military.  (Although I-594 actually passed military bases statewide, 61%-39%).

Here's a beautiful I-594 map of King County.  bgwah, no complaining about the color scheme.  (Click for larger, uncompressed version - slow load time)

() (http://i4.minus.com/ibopzF7lpkxcv7.jpg)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 29, 2014, 06:20:35 PM
Surprised that Oakville voted so heavily against it. Interesting to see how sharp the split is between Langley and Oakville.

A bit surprised not to see Bellingham on the top list too.

You might be confusing Oakville with Oak Harbor.

Yarrow Point in the top ten is interesting.

Yup- what a brain fart.

Alcon- Great map!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 29, 2014, 06:39:48 PM
I was just looking through WA's gubernatorial results going back into the 80s and I saw something weird.

How is it that Booth Gardner won Cowlitz county with 62% of the vote in 1984, but lost it narrowly in 1988, while sweeping the state? Even Garfield county voted for him (though I imagine Garfield County was not as Republican as it is now). Now that I'm looking, Wahkiakum County also swung significantly against Gardner.

Also why did Dixy Lee Ray get 60%> in Benton and Franklin counties in 1976?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on November 29, 2014, 09:20:52 PM
I was just looking through WA's gubernatorial results going back into the 80s and I saw something weird.

How is it that Booth Gardner won Cowlitz county with 62% of the vote in 1984, but lost it narrowly in 1988, while sweeping the state? Even Garfield county voted for him (though I imagine Garfield County was not as Republican as it is now). Now that I'm looking, Wahkiakum County also swung significantly against Gardner.

Also why did Dixy Lee Ray get 60%> in Benton and Franklin counties in 1976?

The Republican candidate was from Cowlitz County in 1988 and represented that area in the state legislature.

Aside from being a conservative Democrat, Ray was a big support of nuclear power. The intro to her Wikipedia page includes quite a bit of information on that subject (link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixy_Lee_Ray)).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on December 12, 2014, 03:39:49 AM
County Maps of I-594 and I-591

I-594 (Pro background checks)
() (http://s46.photobucket.com/user/James_Root/media/1-594_zpsf9a86bfd.png.html)]
Yes - 59.27%
No - 40.73%

I-591 (Anti background checks)
() (http://s46.photobucket.com/user/James_Root/media/1-595_zpsa7005397.png.html)
Yes - 44.73%
No - 55.27%

Asotin County continues to be an electoral enigma.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on March 13, 2015, 03:08:32 PM
The Stranger has gotten it's hands on an email (http://www.thestranger.com/blogs/slog/2015/03/12/21876357/leaked-e-mail-republican-senator-andy-hill-is-considering-a-run-for-governor) from Ex-SoS Sam Reed apparently meant for fellow "mainstream Republicans" in which Reed states that he believes State Sen. Andy Hill will run against Jay Inslee in 2016.


For those unaware, Hill is a moderate Republican who currently holds a Redmond/Bellevue-based seat that went 58% for Obama in 2012. I'd essentially describe him as "Rob McKenna with a voting record"


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: morgieb on March 13, 2015, 06:58:55 PM
County Maps of I-594 and I-591

I-594 (Pro background checks)
() (http://s46.photobucket.com/user/James_Root/media/1-594_zpsf9a86bfd.png.html)]
Yes - 59.27%
No - 40.73%

I-591 (Anti background checks)
() (http://s46.photobucket.com/user/James_Root/media/1-595_zpsa7005397.png.html)
Yes - 44.73%
No - 55.27%

Asotin County continues to be an electoral enigma.
Why the hell does the same question asked differently have quite different percentages? Are voters really that dumb.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Türkisblau on March 13, 2015, 08:29:55 PM
County Maps of I-594 and I-591

I-594 (Pro background checks)
() (http://s46.photobucket.com/user/James_Root/media/1-594_zpsf9a86bfd.png.html)]
Yes - 59.27%
No - 40.73%

I-591 (Anti background checks)
() (http://s46.photobucket.com/user/James_Root/media/1-595_zpsa7005397.png.html)
Yes - 44.73%
No - 55.27%

Asotin County continues to be an electoral enigma.
Why the hell does the same question asked differently have quite different percentages? Are voters really that dumb.

You do know that your sig has Abbott? I think you already know the answer to your question.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: IceSpear on March 14, 2015, 01:17:35 AM

Don't ask such a stupid question. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: morgieb on March 14, 2015, 02:56:52 AM
County Maps of I-594 and I-591

I-594 (Pro background checks)
() (http://s46.photobucket.com/user/James_Root/media/1-594_zpsf9a86bfd.png.html)]
Yes - 59.27%
No - 40.73%

I-591 (Anti background checks)
() (http://s46.photobucket.com/user/James_Root/media/1-595_zpsa7005397.png.html)
Yes - 44.73%
No - 55.27%

Asotin County continues to be an electoral enigma.
Why the hell does the same question asked differently have quite different percentages? Are voters really that dumb.

You do know that your sig has Abbott? I think you already know the answer to your question.

lol, touche.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 15, 2015, 01:15:41 AM
The Stranger has gotten it's hands on an email (http://www.thestranger.com/blogs/slog/2015/03/12/21876357/leaked-e-mail-republican-senator-andy-hill-is-considering-a-run-for-governor) from Ex-SoS Sam Reed apparently meant for fellow "mainstream Republicans" in which Reed states that he believes State Sen. Andy Hill will run against Jay Inslee in 2016.


For those unaware, Hill is a moderate Republican who currently holds a Redmond/Bellevue-based seat that went 58% for Obama in 2012. I'd essentially describe him as "Rob McKenna with a voting record"

Unlike Rob McKenna, he has not won two statewide campaigns. But also unlike Rob McKenna, there is probably no video of him cheerfully telling a Tea Party rally how awesome they are, and he can't run on suing over Obamacare. So there's that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on March 15, 2015, 01:26:57 AM
Why not Steve Litzow? He seems to me at least as good as Hill.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on March 15, 2015, 01:37:46 AM
Why not Steve Litzow? He seems to me at least as good as Hill.

Might just be a matter of Litzow not wanting it, or at least not as much as Hill.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 15, 2015, 12:25:13 PM
Why not Steve Litzow? He seems to me at least as good as Hill.

Might just be a matter of Litzow not wanting it, or at least not as much as Hill.

Litzow would make a great Governor, at least among Republicans. Part of it may be that he'd have to give up his Senate seat to run (if I remember correctly, he's in the cycle elected same years as Gov and Pres)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Maxwell on March 15, 2015, 01:18:40 PM
Washington dems, would Inslee be at all vulnerable? It seems Washington Republicans view him as vulnerable if they're pursuing Hill as hard as they are.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 15, 2015, 11:19:30 PM
Washington dems, would Inslee be at all vulnerable? It seems Washington Republicans view him as vulnerable if they're pursuing Hill as hard as they are.

Probably not. Dem Governors always seem more vulnerable than they actually are.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Sumner 1868 on March 15, 2015, 11:27:02 PM
Washington dems, would Inslee be at all vulnerable? It seems Washington Republicans view him as vulnerable if they're pursuing Hill as hard as they are.

The GOP is simply too unpopular after Bush and some earlier things to win the governorship. Inslee's unpopularity won't be a factor, just as Gregoire was reelected with approval ratings in the low thirties.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on March 16, 2015, 01:24:05 AM
Washington dems, would Inslee be at all vulnerable? It seems Washington Republicans view him as vulnerable if they're pursuing Hill as hard as they are.

The GOP is simply too unpopular after Bush and some earlier things to win the governorship. Inslee's unpopularity won't be a factor, just as Gregoire was reelected with approval ratings in the low thirties.

Washington elects governors in Presidential years, so  - probably yes. But i am reasonably sure McKenna would beat Inslee in 2014 or 2010. Just as Rauner beat Quinn or Hogan - Brown. If he got abput 48,5% in 2012 - he would win in these years.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on March 16, 2015, 01:36:44 AM
And one reuest for state gurus: i am living abroad now (and, probably, will be in foreseable future), so i am almost completely Internet-based as far as information is concerned. I am interested in opinions (objective) about ideological composition of freshmen in state legislature. Such information is not especially easy to find, and wait 2 years until someone, like Boris Shor, will update his legislative database is a long time. It seems to me, that Democratic politicians in the state (with glaring exceptions of Tim Sheldon and, may be, Christopher Hurst) are, generally, follow moderate-liberal to very liberal line, and that seems true about freshmen too, but i may be wrong. What about republican freshmen? I heard someone, like Melanie Stambaugh, be called "pro-choice moderate". Is it really so? In the past state has good numbers of reasonable moderate republicans, but, as in almost all states, they became much scarcer of recently, being pressed heavily by right-wingers.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 16, 2015, 08:40:14 AM
And one reuest for state gurus: i am living abroad now (and, probably, will be in foreseable future), so i am almost completely Internet-based as far as information is concerned. I am interested in opinions (objective) about ideological composition of freshmen in state legislature. Such information is not especially easy to find, and wait 2 years until someone, like Boris Shor, will update his legislative database is a long time. It seems to me, that Democratic politicians in the state (with glaring exceptions of Tim Sheldon and, may be, Christopher Hurst) are, generally, follow moderate-liberal to very liberal line, and that seems true about freshmen too, but i may be wrong. What about republican freshmen? I heard someone, like Melanie Stambaugh, be called "pro-choice moderate". Is it really so? In the past state has good numbers of reasonable moderate republicans, but, as in almost all states, they became much scarcer of recently, being pressed heavily by right-wingers.

Melanie Stambaugh is definitely our most interesting new GOP freshman. Only 24 and a former local beauty queen, she's probably a name to keep eye on in the South King/Puyallup area. Not sure how familiar you are with geography, but that's roughly where WA-10 and WA-8 come together. Her future is probably at the state level, though. She'll probably be her LD's Senator within 5-10 years.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on March 16, 2015, 11:15:58 AM
And one reuest for state gurus: i am living abroad now (and, probably, will be in foreseable future), so i am almost completely Internet-based as far as information is concerned. I am interested in opinions (objective) about ideological composition of freshmen in state legislature. Such information is not especially easy to find, and wait 2 years until someone, like Boris Shor, will update his legislative database is a long time. It seems to me, that Democratic politicians in the state (with glaring exceptions of Tim Sheldon and, may be, Christopher Hurst) are, generally, follow moderate-liberal to very liberal line, and that seems true about freshmen too, but i may be wrong. What about republican freshmen? I heard someone, like Melanie Stambaugh, be called "pro-choice moderate". Is it really so? In the past state has good numbers of reasonable moderate republicans, but, as in almost all states, they became much scarcer of recently, being pressed heavily by right-wingers.

Melanie Stambaugh is definitely our most interesting new GOP freshman. Only 24 and a former local beauty queen, she's probably a name to keep eye on in the South King/Puyallup area. Not sure how familiar you are with geography, but that's roughly where WA-10 and WA-8 come together. Her future is probably at the state level, though. She'll probably be her LD's Senator within 5-10 years.

I know geography (including those of Washington state) fairly well, though, of course, not as good as local denizens do. Thanks for info, but what about other freshmen?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Sumner 1868 on March 16, 2015, 12:47:06 PM
Washington dems, would Inslee be at all vulnerable? It seems Washington Republicans view him as vulnerable if they're pursuing Hill as hard as they are.

The GOP is simply too unpopular after Bush and some earlier things to win the governorship. Inslee's unpopularity won't be a factor, just as Gregoire was reelected with approval ratings in the low thirties.

Washington elects governors in Presidential years, so  - probably yes. But i am reasonably sure McKenna would beat Inslee in 2014 or 2010. Just as Rauner beat Quinn or Hogan - Brown. If he got abput 48,5% in 2012 - he would win in these years.

Not sure even about that. Dino Rossi's uninspiring margin in the 2010 senate race suggest the Democratic shift is fairly real.

And one reuest for state gurus: i am living abroad now (and, probably, will be in foreseable future), so i am almost completely Internet-based as far as information is concerned. I am interested in opinions (objective) about ideological composition of freshmen in state legislature. Such information is not especially easy to find, and wait 2 years until someone, like Boris Shor, will update his legislative database is a long time. It seems to me, that Democratic politicians in the state (with glaring exceptions of Tim Sheldon and, may be, Christopher Hurst) are, generally, follow moderate-liberal to very liberal line, and that seems true about freshmen too, but i may be wrong. What about republican freshmen? I heard someone, like Melanie Stambaugh, be called "pro-choice moderate". Is it really so? In the past state has good numbers of reasonable moderate republicans, but, as in almost all states, they became much scarcer of recently, being pressed heavily by right-wingers.

The East-West polarization has been expanding greatly since the 1994 elections, and thus the GOP is now heavily dependent on the anti-tax, anti-gun control anti-environmental voters in the Eastern Cascades. A rightward shift was the result.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on March 16, 2015, 02:13:09 PM
Thanks, i know that. But while vast majority of Democrats in Washington state are elected  from "west of Cascades" districts, many Republicans hail ftom the western part of the state too. It's them, who were of interest to me...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Maxwell on March 16, 2015, 03:56:09 PM
Washington dems, would Inslee be at all vulnerable? It seems Washington Republicans view him as vulnerable if they're pursuing Hill as hard as they are.

The GOP is simply too unpopular after Bush and some earlier things to win the governorship. Inslee's unpopularity won't be a factor, just as Gregoire was reelected with approval ratings in the low thirties.

To be fair, Gregoire was propped up by a very strong Democratic wave.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on March 16, 2015, 10:40:45 PM
Washington dems, would Inslee be at all vulnerable? It seems Washington Republicans view him as vulnerable if they're pursuing Hill as hard as they are.

The GOP is simply too unpopular after Bush and some earlier things to win the governorship. Inslee's unpopularity won't be a factor, just as Gregoire was reelected with approval ratings in the low thirties.

To be fair, Gregoire was propped up by a very strong Democratic wave.

Exactly what i already said.. A lot will depend on candidate's personal qualities. For example - if, as in last SoS election, Republican will nominate a candidate able to get decent percentage in King county, and even better - in some other Democratic leaning (Thurston in this particular case) - they can win even in presidential  year.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 17, 2015, 08:39:14 AM
And one reuest for state gurus: i am living abroad now (and, probably, will be in foreseable future), so i am almost completely Internet-based as far as information is concerned. I am interested in opinions (objective) about ideological composition of freshmen in state legislature. Such information is not especially easy to find, and wait 2 years until someone, like Boris Shor, will update his legislative database is a long time. It seems to me, that Democratic politicians in the state (with glaring exceptions of Tim Sheldon and, may be, Christopher Hurst) are, generally, follow moderate-liberal to very liberal line, and that seems true about freshmen too, but i may be wrong. What about republican freshmen? I heard someone, like Melanie Stambaugh, be called "pro-choice moderate". Is it really so? In the past state has good numbers of reasonable moderate republicans, but, as in almost all states, they became much scarcer of recently, being pressed heavily by right-wingers.

Melanie Stambaugh is definitely our most interesting new GOP freshman. Only 24 and a former local beauty queen, she's probably a name to keep eye on in the South King/Puyallup area. Not sure how familiar you are with geography, but that's roughly where WA-10 and WA-8 come together. Her future is probably at the state level, though. She'll probably be her LD's Senator within 5-10 years.

I know geography (including those of Washington state) fairly well, though, of course, not as good as local denizens do. Thanks for info, but what about other freshmen?

Not many I can think of off the top of my head. That Miloscia fellow is an odd duck, a fervent social conservative but very left-wing on economic issues (former Dem, now a Rep). You don't see too many like him anymore. Doubtful he survives 2018 regardless of national mood, he benefited from a poor candidate last year.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on March 17, 2015, 09:48:55 AM
And one reuest for state gurus: i am living abroad now (and, probably, will be in foreseable future), so i am almost completely Internet-based as far as information is concerned. I am interested in opinions (objective) about ideological composition of freshmen in state legislature. Such information is not especially easy to find, and wait 2 years until someone, like Boris Shor, will update his legislative database is a long time. It seems to me, that Democratic politicians in the state (with glaring exceptions of Tim Sheldon and, may be, Christopher Hurst) are, generally, follow moderate-liberal to very liberal line, and that seems true about freshmen too, but i may be wrong. What about republican freshmen? I heard someone, like Melanie Stambaugh, be called "pro-choice moderate". Is it really so? In the past state has good numbers of reasonable moderate republicans, but, as in almost all states, they became much scarcer of recently, being pressed heavily by right-wingers.

Melanie Stambaugh is definitely our most interesting new GOP freshman. Only 24 and a former local beauty queen, she's probably a name to keep eye on in the South King/Puyallup area. Not sure how familiar you are with geography, but that's roughly where WA-10 and WA-8 come together. Her future is probably at the state level, though. She'll probably be her LD's Senator within 5-10 years.

I know geography (including those of Washington state) fairly well, though, of course, not as good as local denizens do. Thanks for info, but what about other freshmen?

Not many I can think of off the top of my head. That Miloscia fellow is an odd duck, a fervent social conservative but very left-wing on economic issues (former Dem, now a Rep). You don't see too many like him anymore. Doubtful he survives 2018 regardless of national mood, he benefited from a poor candidate last year.

Again - thanks!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on April 16, 2015, 03:27:20 PM
State Auditor Troy Kelley (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-auditor-troy-kelley-indicted-on-tax-evasion-charges/) has been indicted for tax evasion.

Inslee is calling on Kelley to resign.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on April 17, 2015, 02:25:04 AM
State Auditor Troy Kelley (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-auditor-troy-kelley-indicted-on-tax-evasion-charges/) has been indicted for tax evasion.

Inslee is calling on Kelley to resign.

Auditor for tax evasion? Well, almost funny...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on May 12, 2015, 02:10:27 PM
Bill Byrant won't seek re-election to the Seattle Port Commission. (http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2015/05/11/bill-bryant-will-not-seek-new-term-on-the-seattle-port-commission/)

Bryant has statewide aspirations, and might run against Inslee in 2016. He's likely retiring from the commission to avoid losing re-election, which might hurt his statewide credentials.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 12, 2015, 02:38:11 PM
Bill Byrant won't seek re-election to the Seattle Port Commission. (http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2015/05/11/bill-bryant-will-not-seek-new-term-on-the-seattle-port-commission/)

Bryant has statewide aspirations, and might run against Inslee in 2016. He's likely retiring from the commission to avoid losing re-election, which might hurt his statewide credentials.

There are definitely better candidates than he. Hasn't Reichert been rumored to be planning on challenging Inslee? Either way, Inslee should be able to beat both.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on May 16, 2015, 12:23:01 PM
Balducci challenging Hague for King County Council seat (http://www.kirklandreporter.com/news/303646791.html#)

Hague has had some extraordinary luck running against sub-par opponents in the past. Looks like her luck is finally running out.

(this news is a few months old at this point but I only just noticed :P)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on May 16, 2015, 02:55:26 PM
Balducci challenging Hague for King County Council seat (http://www.kirklandreporter.com/news/303646791.html#)

Hague has had some extraordinary luck running against sub-par opponents in the past. Looks like her luck is finally running out.

(this news is a few months old at this point but I only just noticed :P)

Possibly strongest opponent, but Hague is far from being finished..


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on May 18, 2015, 09:09:14 PM
Seattle's City Council elections this year will be interesting. In previous elections, the council's 9 members were elected citywide with 4 year terms. In 2013 however, voters approved a measure to change this system into 7 individual districts, plus 2 seats that remain citywide. The current make-up of the City Council is 8 Democrats, 1 Socialist. As with most Seattle elections, most of the council elections will be between candidates representing different factions of progressives.

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The main issues at play in Seattle generally revolve around keeping the city affordable for the average working man, something that's become difficult as tech companies attract rich software workers to the city, driving up rent costs even as more and more housing buildings crop up.

I have prepared a brief break-down of all 9 races, districts and candidates:


District 1
Southwest/West Seattle (Delridge, South Park, Highland Park)

Shannon Braddock - Chief of Staff to county councilor Joe McDermott, running on transportation issues.
Pavel Goberman - Crazy person, ran against Jeff Merkely in 2014, has a great website (http://www.getenergized.com/content/the-health-problem.php)
Amanda Kay Helmick - Community activist
Lisa Herbold - Licata staffer, focusing on housing issues
Chas Redmond - Some dude
Arturo Robles - Some dude
Jody Rushmer - Some dudette
Phillip Tavel - Attorney, primarily for children
Brianna Thomas - Activist, heavily involved in SeaTac minimum wage fight.
Karl Wirsing - Some dude

Longtime councilmember Nick Licata is not running for re-election, causing a wide array of candidates to run for this seat some of whom have already dropped out. Despite the long list of names, the only two that really are worth watching are Braddock and Herbold.

District 2
Southeast Seattle (Beacon Hill, Georgetown, Rainier Valley, Rainier Beach)

Josh Farris - Activist, involved with Occupy Seattle and anti-foreclosure movements.
Bruce Harrell - Incumbent
Tammy Morales - Community activist, decently influential.

District 2 consists of the blue-collar Southwest Seattle, and is the only district that is not majority white. This is mainly a battle between Morales and Harrell. Morales has criticized Harrell for flip-flopping on issues (often voting the opposite of what he publicly said he would) and has also gone hard after Harrell for being to cushy with the Seattle Police Department. Harrell, who also chairs the city's Public Safety Committee, has taken fire as many excessive force cases being dismissed outright, with one officer who was investigated 18 times in a three-year period being allowed to retain his job. It's an issue that will likely have a lot of pull in this part of town, and Harrell has stepped up his criticisms of SPD as of late. Farris is a long-shot candidate, but has pushed the race to the left in certain areas like rent-control.

District 3
Capitol Hill + Central District

Pamela Banks - Urban League president, backed by Mayor Murray, Bruce Harrell, & Tim Burgess.
Morgan Beach - Women's rights activist
Lee Carter - Community activist
Rod Hearne - LGBT rights activist
Kshama Sawant - Incumbent. You know her already.

Capitol Hill is considered the "gay" part of Seattle, and it's politics are about as liberal as you find in America. This election is essentially a referendum on Sawant, the lone Socialist on the council who everyone either adores or despises. Sawant's supporters are vocal, and turn up at every council meeting to make themselves heard. Her opponents are forced to define themselves against Sawant, with their main attacks being that she is divisive, and too focused on socialist revolution to actually do her job. With Mayor Ed Murray making his dislike of Sawant known, this has also turned the election into a establishment vs. activist battle. Sawant recently picked up the endorsement of Mike McGinn, who Murray defeated in 2013.

District 4
Northeast Seattle (University District, Ravenna, Eastlake, most of Wallingford)

Jean Godden - Incumbent
Rob Johnson - Urban planner, transportation activist
Michael Maddux - Paralegal, park activist
Abel Pacheco - Some dude
Tony Provine - Neighborhood activist

An odd district; District 4 is both urban and suburban, the highest level of education, but the 2nd poorest district overall. Voters here tend to be liberal, but risk averse. Much of the population are renters and University of Washington students, both of whom are have very low turnout in local elections. Jean Godden is the incumbent here, and is probably the most vulnerable of all the council members. Although a strong liberal by most measures, Godden has gained a reputation as one of the more conservative members of the council as the council has been pushed left recently by members like Sawant and Mike O'Brien. Godden is a close ally of Mayor Murray as well, to the point that some have criticized her for being a rubber stamp who has come to parrot Murray's plans and ideas. Godden has a strong feminist streak, something she's used to make liberal activists happy in the past. It might not save her this time though as a recent straw poll  had Godden in dead last; losing to Maddux and the well-funded Rob Johnson. Godden has a strong money advantage, and the heavy support of the Mayor, but we'll see if that's enough.

District 5
North Seattle (Northgate + Lake City)

Sandy Brown - Former pastor, activist for the homeless
Debadutta Dash - Some dude
Mercedes Elizalde - Low-Income Housing Institute member
Debora Juarez - Blackfeet Tribe member, activist
Kris Lethin - Realtor
Hugh Russell - Some dude
David Toledo - Businessman, activist
Halei Watkins - Planned Parenthood organizer

None of the current Council members are running here, leaving it wide open. No major issues here, and as such this is probably going to be a boring race. Sandy Brown is probably the frontrunner, with Elizalde, Watkins, and Juarez also in the mix.

District 6
Green Lake to Golden Gardens, includes Ballard, Fremont.

Jon Lisbin - Some dude
Mike O’Brien - Incumbent
Stan Shaufler - Some dude
Catherine Weatbrook - Neighborhood activist

O'Brien is a solid progressive, who gives his district little reason to complain. He's fought hard for environmental issues and public campaign financing, and is currently pushing a proposal to charge developers linkage fees in order to help pay for affordable housing. Weatbrook is his only competition, but O'Brien should cruise to re-election fairly easily.

District 7
Downtown through Discovery Park (Queen Anne, Magnolia, South Lake Union)

Sally Bagshaw - Incumbent
Gus Hartmann - Google engineer
Deborah Zech-Artis - Some dudette

The urban core of Seattle. Bagshaw has massively outraised her only opponent in Hartmann, and will likely win re-election easily.

District 8
Citywide Position

Tim Burgess - Incumbent, Council President
Jon Grant - Former Tenants Union executive director
John Persak - Longshoreman, some dude but has a decent amount of $$$.
John Roderick - Musician, played with Death Cab for Cutie!

A fun race. Burgess, the Council President, has led the fight for universal Pre-K but is otherwise the council's most conservative member by far. His main opponent is Jon Grant, a far-left firebrand who has heavily taken aim at Burgess. The list of complaints about Burgess include a controversial anti-panhandling measure, opposing tent encampments for homeless, the blocking of various campaign finance reform measures, and Burgess' support for the downtown tunnel project. Roderick is also a contender, and has raised vast sums of money to rival Burgess.

District 9
Citywide Position

Alon Bassok - Urban planner
Bill Bradburd - Community activist, opponent of micro-housing
Lorena González - Former civil rights attorney, legal counsel to the mayor
Omari Tahir-Garrett - Africatown activist, Sawant ally, focused on gentrification
Thomas Tobin - Some dude
Alex Tsimerman - Local nutcase

Another vacant race, this race will likely come down to a battle between Gonzalez and Bradburd. Gonzalez is backed by Mayor Ed Murray, and has also gained praise as a immigration activist and for her representation of a Latino man who was beaten and threatened by Seattle Police in 2010. (http://www.thestranger.com/blogs/slog/2015/05/15/22219118/its-finally-happening-heres-everyone-whos-running-for-city-council-this-year-and-what-to-expect-in-each-race)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on May 18, 2015, 11:12:27 PM
Thanks for detailed break-down. The only qualm i have - in such left-wing city all fights are betweeen generally similar (i stress the word "generally") candidates: left and far left. Of course - they may be different on some local issues, but except that - essentially we have Tweedledee vs. Tweedledum here. For election observers outside of Seattle there is little difference between them.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on May 18, 2015, 11:17:19 PM
Thanks for detailed break-down. The only qualm i have - in such left-wing city all fights are between generally similar (i stress the word "generally") candidates: left and far left. Of course - they may be different on some local issues, but except that - essentially we have Tweedledee vs. Tweedledum here. For election observers outside of Seattle there is little difference between them.


True, but there's very few areas in the US where such progressive on progressive races take place. Even in cities like New York and Chicago, there are still conservative areas and candidates. There are so many places where the elections are a race to the right, Seattle is one of the few cities where candidates can run as far to the left as they want.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on May 19, 2015, 05:36:40 AM
Thanks for detailed break-down. The only qualm i have - in such left-wing city all fights are between generally similar (i stress the word "generally") candidates: left and far left. Of course - they may be different on some local issues, but except that - essentially we have Tweedledee vs. Tweedledum here. For election observers outside of Seattle there is little difference between them.


True, but there's very few areas in the US where such progressive on progressive races take place. Even in cities like New York and Chicago, there are still conservative areas and candidates. There are so many places where the elections are a race to the right, Seattle is one of the few cities where candidates can run as far to the left as they want.


San Francisco, Oakland, Portland, Detroit, Boston (mainly)?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on May 19, 2015, 11:45:23 AM
Whoops, silly me. I forgot that races aren't worth talking about unless there's a minimum of 3 moderates in the running.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on May 19, 2015, 12:30:07 PM
Whoops, silly me. I forgot that races aren't worth talking about unless there's a minimum of 3 moderates in the running.

I never said that. But i prefer to have at least one....))


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 19, 2015, 06:40:24 PM

District 9
Citywide Position

Alon Bassok - Urban planner

Bill Bradburd - Community activist, opponent of micro-housing
Lorena González - Former civil rights attorney, legal counsel to the mayor
Omari Tahir-Garrett - Africatown activist, Sawant ally, focused on gentrification
Thomas Tobin - Some dude
Alex Tsimerman - Local nutcase

Another vacant race, this race will likely come down to a battle between Gonzalez and Bradburd. Gonzalez is backed by Mayor Ed Murray, and has also gained praise as a immigration activist and for her representation of a Latino man who was beaten and threatened by Seattle Police in 2010. (http://www.thestranger.com/blogs/slog/2015/05/15/22219118/its-finally-happening-heres-everyone-whos-running-for-city-council-this-year-and-what-to-expect-in-each-race)


I took a class taught by Alon at the UW! I had no idea he's running. He's the urbanist in that race and he'll certainly be getting my vote.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 03, 2015, 03:33:34 PM
Bump for primaries tomorrow.

Anybody send in their ballots yet?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 03, 2015, 05:33:19 PM
Bump for primaries tomorrow.

Anybody send in their ballots yet?

Yep.

Are you in Seattle?  I didn't expect our new City Council elections to be game-changers for turnout, but I didn't quite expect the near record low showing we're getting either.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 03, 2015, 05:54:00 PM
Bump for primaries tomorrow.

Anybody send in their ballots yet?

Yep.

Are you in Seattle?  I didn't expect our new City Council elections to be game-changers for turnout, but I didn't quite expect the near record low showing we're getting either.

Yes. Where are you getting turnout numbers?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 03, 2015, 06:04:09 PM
Bump for primaries tomorrow.

Anybody send in their ballots yet?

Yep.

Are you in Seattle?  I didn't expect our new City Council elections to be game-changers for turnout, but I didn't quite expect the near record low showing we're getting either.

Yes. Where are you getting turnout numbers?

https://info.kingcounty.gov/kcelections/ballotreturnstats/default.aspx

I'm in D7...hopefully your Council race is more interesting than mine!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 03, 2015, 06:08:11 PM
Bump for primaries tomorrow.

Anybody send in their ballots yet?

Yep.

Are you in Seattle?  I didn't expect our new City Council elections to be game-changers for turnout, but I didn't quite expect the near record low showing we're getting either.

Yes. Where are you getting turnout numbers?

https://info.kingcounty.gov/kcelections/ballotreturnstats/default.aspx

I'm in D7...hopefully your Council race is more interesting than mine!

I'm also in 7, so sadly, no.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 03, 2015, 06:14:04 PM
Small, boring world ;D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 05, 2015, 01:49:29 PM
So after last night's ballot count, it looks like:

- LD 30 is neck-and-neck between Carol Gregory (D) and Teri Hickel (R), which is almost certainly good news for Gregory, even if she's about 100 votes behind at this point.
- Courtney Gregoire will skate to re-election as Port Commissioner position 2, and will probably go against Goodspaceguy in November
- Fred Felleman and Marion Yoshino will move on to the general election for Port Commissioner position 5
- Julie Wise is leaving her competition in the dust for Director of Elections, in an impressive showing for an open seat.
- Seattle City Council District 1 (West Seattle) will likely have Shannon Braddock and Lisa Herbold move on to the general election.
- Bruce Harrell will in all likelihood win re-election in District 2 (Southeast Seattle)
- Comrade Sawant is barely below a majority in District 3 (Capitol Hill), but leading her closest challenger, Pamela Banks, by over 14 points - good news for Sawant.
- Incumbent Jean Godden may not even make the general in District 4 (Wallingford, U-District, Ravenna, Sand Point). Rob Johnson and Michael Maddux are currently in first and second place.
- Deborah Juarez and Sandy Brown will move on to the general in District 5 (North Seattle, Lake City).
- Mike O'Brien will likely face Catherine Weatbrook in District 6 (Ballard) and looks well-placed to win re-election.
- Sally Bagshaw is dominating in District 7 (Magnolia, Queen Anne, Downtown) and will probably face Deborah Zech-Artis in November
- Tim Burgess will be held to a plurality for Position 8 (city-wide), but still leads John Grant by 20 points.
- Lorena Gonzales is pulling over 60% in Position 9 (city-wide), an open seat with 5 other candidates in the race, so hats off to her!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 05, 2015, 08:43:35 PM
It looks like Godden is out.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: muon2 on August 16, 2015, 10:11:50 PM
I didn't have a lot of time in Seattle during my trip, but spent most of the run up to the election north of Bellingham. There were lots of signs there, and one aspect of them caught my eye. A large number were mounted on wooden posts and frames. That's virtually unknown in the Midwest except for amateur posts. Almost all campaign signs in my home area are on wire frames (for plastic bag or folding paper) or wire posts (for corrugated plastic).

PS Bummer that the election kept me from meeting Alcon.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 16, 2015, 11:13:00 PM
I didn't have a lot of time in Seattle during my trip, but spent most of the run up to the election north of Bellingham. There were lots of signs there, and one aspect of them caught my eye. A large number were mounted on wooden posts and frames. That's virtually unknown in the Midwest except for amateur posts. Almost all campaign signs in my home area are on wire frames (for plastic bag or folding paper) or wire posts (for corrugated plastic).

PS Bummer that the election kept me from meeting Alcon.

Interesting, I had no idea.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 24, 2015, 01:20:48 PM
Here's a blank precinct map of Whacom County.  I plan on making maps for all the local races.

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5422_26_08_15_1_50_47.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 04, 2015, 10:23:24 AM
I didn't have a lot of time in Seattle during my trip, but spent most of the run up to the election north of Bellingham. There were lots of signs there, and one aspect of them caught my eye. A large number were mounted on wooden posts and frames. That's virtually unknown in the Midwest except for amateur posts. Almost all campaign signs in my home area are on wire frames (for plastic bag or folding paper) or wire posts (for corrugated plastic).

PS Bummer that the election kept me from meeting Alcon.

We've got really rocky soil; the wire frame signs get bent up going into the ground. Some rookie campaigns purchase them to save money but they always do wooden posts the second time around.

They are a pain in the rear to purchase, assemble, store, and distribute, plus you need mallets to pound the stakes into the ground. But life is tough, I suppose.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on September 04, 2015, 11:14:54 AM
Title update. Dull and unoriginal, like this campaign season #zing


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on November 03, 2015, 09:36:59 PM
Bumping for results tonight.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on November 03, 2015, 11:00:41 PM
Polls closing. Remember early results in Washington, and especially Seattle tend to skew conservative because of the mail-in system.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on November 03, 2015, 11:12:50 PM
First results:

I-1366 (Tim Eyman's thing): Yes 60.4-39.6
I-1401 (Endangered Animals): Yes 67.8-32.2

No results from King County yet, so probably not too much to draw from these numbers.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 03, 2015, 11:14:52 PM
Here in Spokane, Dave Condon (Mayor) and Ben Stuckart (Council Prez) are both likely to get reelected, so the status quo shouldn't change much. The Council could either go back to 4-3 Dem or go to 6-1 Dem (it is 5-2 Dem right now, and the last Republican, Mike Fagan, is unlikely to lose even though he's a loon).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on November 03, 2015, 11:20:59 PM
Seattle City Council

1. Braddock 52.92-46.48 Herbold
2. Harrell 54.87-44.93 Morales
3. Sawant 52.56-47.12 Banks
4. Johnson 54.8-44.7 Maddux
5. Juarez 63.08-36.43 Brown
6. O'Brien 58.8-40.93 Weatbrook
7. Bagshaw 79.85-Zech-Artis 19.38
8. Burgess 57.88-41.57 Grant
9. Gonzalez 75.97-23.54 Bradburd


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on November 03, 2015, 11:25:41 PM
Seattle's campaign finance initiative is ahead 60-40. It'll be interesting to see how that pans out.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Asian Nazi on November 03, 2015, 11:30:46 PM
In funny/horrifying local news, a couple weeks ago, the mailbox room in my apartment complex was broken into.  The thief stole all of the mail, including the ballots of probably most of the registered voters.  Now, my apartment complex is probably a pretty Democratic area in an otherwise swingy district, but I didn't think that the theft would be decisive.

Well, this is the current result of my county council race, with about a couple thousand ballots left to count:

Satpal Sidhu (D)
19,318   49.98%
Kathy Kershner (R)
19,332   50.02%

...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 03, 2015, 11:36:25 PM
Dems currently on pace to pick up one seat on the Spokane City Council to increase their supermajority from 5-2 to 6-1. Not that that'll change much since politicians of all strips are generally pretty useless in this town.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 03, 2015, 11:47:00 PM
Looks like Carol Gregory (D) is down 6,075-7,110 to Teri Hickel(R).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 04, 2015, 09:37:20 AM
Dispatch from out east: David Condon is first Spokane Mayor to be reelected since 1973, and the first one to win since the city went to a strong-mayor system in 2000. Not that this matters hugely, since his frenemy Ben Stuckart was reelected as Council President and liberals picked up a 6th seat on the City Council thanks to Lori Kinnear, so they now hold a daunting 6-1 majority only two years after conservatives controlled the council 4-3.

Prop 1 went down in flames, which is probably a good thing - I usually am skeptical about apocalyptic alarm bells being rung by business groups over propositions, but this thing was poorly written and overly broad. A $12 minimum wage initiative would probably pass - this thing, not so much.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Asian Nazi on November 04, 2015, 11:04:25 AM
Big changes for the structure of Whatcom County Council coming up, too.  Currently, six of the seven county council members are voted on in the primaries by three (horrendously drawn) districts, but were voted on at-large  Propositions were passed that will change this to a proper district system, with five districts and two at-large seats.  In the short term, this probably means more pro-coal conservatives on the Council, but in the long term this definitely will lead to better representation and a less...uh...chaotic political environment since right now the composition of the council swings wildly depending on whether turnout is better in urban Bellingham or the fundie countryside.  Also, term limits were passed, limiting the council members and county executive to three terms. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Asian Nazi on November 04, 2015, 07:30:26 PM
I posted a thread about Whatcom County here earlier today if anyone's interested: 

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=222382


Also, in awesome news, two, possibly three Latinos have been elected to Yakima City Council for the first time ever!   

http://www.yakimaherald.com/news/elections/historic-election-two-latinos-elected-to-yakima-city-council/article_be4f5ff2-82b3-11e5-9bd0-371092904c06.html



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on January 09, 2016, 12:47:39 PM
The carbon tax Initative 732 (http://carbonwa.org/) has gathered enough signatures, and has moved to the legislature (http://www.law360.com/articles/742150/washington-carbon-tax-initiative-moves-to-legislature) for approval -does anyone think it has the votes to pass with Republicans in control of the Senate?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on January 09, 2016, 12:58:54 PM
And in related news:

Washington aims to limit carbon pollution from largest facilities

BY PHUONG LE
Associated Press
JANUARY 6, 2016 5:10 PM


SEATTLE

Quote
The state’s largest industrial emitters would be required to reduce carbon emissions by 5 percent every three years, under a proposed rule released Wednesday by state regulators.

The Department of Ecology’s proposed Clean Air Rule (http://www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange/carbonlimit.htm) would initially apply to about two dozen manufacturing plants, refineries, power plants, natural gas distributors and others that release at least 100,000 metric tons of carbon a year. Many more facilities would likely be covered by the rule as that threshold is lowered over time.

(...) Facilities would have different ways to comply with the rule, including buying credits from another carbon market system such as California’s or sponsoring projects that permanently reduce carbon pollution. For reducing their emissions by more than the required amount, facilities also could get credits, which they could use in the future or sell to others.

(...) State officials say the rule is needed to protect human health and the environment from climate change.

“It’s important that we act now to protect our water supplies, infrastructure and economy for future generations,” Ecology Director Maia Bellon said in a prepared statement.

Environmental and other groups applauded the draft rule as a crucial step in addressing climate change. But business groups and others have worried the efforts could hurt the state’s ability to attract and retain industries.

Read more here: http://www.bellinghamherald.com/news/local/article53406970.html#storylink=cpy


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: henster on January 09, 2016, 11:47:09 PM
The carbon tax Initative 732 (http://carbonwa.org/) has gathered enough signatures, and has moved to the legislature (http://www.law360.com/articles/742150/washington-carbon-tax-initiative-moves-to-legislature) for approval -does anyone think it has the votes to pass with Republicans in control of the Senate?

Why would they waste sending it to the legislature and not straight to ballot? Wouldn't it be funny if both measures end up being defeated? Both will probably do terribly in Eastern WA and a lot Boeing workers may end up voting against them.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Zioneer on January 10, 2016, 12:00:34 AM
Any elections looking interesting in 2016?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Asian Nazi on January 10, 2016, 12:02:15 PM
Any elections looking interesting in 2016?

WA-7, the race for State Senate (or the House, I guess, if the GOP has a good year), and because this is WA there will undoubtedly be some interesting initiatives on the ballot.  And since the current Secretary of State is a Republican I'm sure she'll receive a strong challenge from the Dems, but I haven't been following close enough to know who is likely to run.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on January 10, 2016, 03:35:25 PM
There's no way I-732 passes. Zero chance.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Sumner 1868 on January 10, 2016, 04:13:25 PM

It would be difficult, but not impossible. Particularly with presidential turnout.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: henster on January 10, 2016, 05:19:10 PM

I don't think either will pass, this is a state that voted down a progressive income tax just a few years ago and just voted for the stupid Eyman blackmail proposal. Voters may see the carbon tax the same way they view an income vote.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on January 14, 2016, 04:56:58 AM
It's amazing how few people in Washington outside of the  most politically well-informed know who Tim Eyman is and how awful his proposals are. Every single one of them are tax initiatives that sound like common sense until you take a second to think about it. Which of course most voters don't.

Infuriates me to think of how many people think stuff like "2/3 majority to raise taxes" and "All tax increases have to be approved by the public" are legitimately smart ideas.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Asian Nazi on January 14, 2016, 11:16:51 AM
It's amazing how few people in Washington outside of the  most politically well-informed know who Tim Eyman is and how awful his proposals are. Every single one of them are tax initiatives that sound like common sense until you take a second to think about it. Which of course most voters don't.

Infuriates me to think of how many people think stuff like "2/3 majority to raise taxes" and "All tax increases have to be approved by the public" are legitimately smart ideas.

I think he's fairly well-known by anybody who follows local news at all.  I certainly had heard of him before I became an election nerd at least.

But yeah, he's a huge HP and has singlehandedly destroyed my support for direct democracy.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Asian Nazi on March 01, 2016, 02:58:30 PM
https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2016/03/01/23637993/trans-activist-danni-askini-is-running-for-the-washington-state-legislature

Since he declared his candidacy for the WA-7, the race to replace Brady Walkinshaw's ultra-liberal Seattle-based State House Seat (WA-43) is getting crowded.  Today, trans activist Danni Askini entered the race, aiming to become the first openly trans person ever elected to the Washington State Legislature.  

Other candidates include "housing advocate Nicole Macri, LGBT advocate Thomas Pitchford, environmental advocate Sameer Ranade, and lawyer Dan Shih" (all Democrats, obviously).  

I don't know enough about the inner workings of Seattle politics to predict how this race will shake out.  



EDIT: It's also March already, we should get a new thread title!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 01, 2016, 09:50:01 PM
https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2016/03/01/23637993/trans-activist-danni-askini-is-running-for-the-washington-state-legislature

Since he declared his candidacy for the WA-7, the race to replace Brady Walkinshaw's ultra-liberal Seattle-based State House Seat (WA-43) is getting crowded.  Today, trans activist Danni Askini entered the race, aiming to become the first openly trans person ever elected to the Washington State Legislature.  

Other candidates include "housing advocate Nicole Macri, LGBT advocate Thomas Pitchford, environmental advocate Sameer Ranade, and lawyer Dan Shih" (all Democrats, obviously).  

I don't know enough about the inner workings of Seattle politics to predict how this race will shake out.  



EDIT: It's also March already, we should get a new thread title!

Should call it something pithy related to Jay Inslee and what a dull hack he is.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on March 08, 2016, 04:12:37 PM
Brad Owen is not seeking another term as Lieutenant Governor (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/brad-owen-wont-seek-re-election-as-lieutenant-governor/). He's been LG since 1996.


Only state official I've seen in person, as he came to my middle school to give an assembly on not doing drugs. It sucked.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Asian Nazi on March 09, 2016, 10:38:59 AM
Quote
Several Democrats and Republicans have already jumped in the race to replace Owen. Democratic Sens. Cyrus Habib of Kirkland and Karen Fraser of Olympia, and Rep. Jim Moeller of Vancouver have all announced their candidacies. Sen. Steve Hobbs, D-Lake Stevens, has announced his interest.

Running as Republicans are former TV anchor and businessman Phillip Yin, former medical professional and radio host Martin McClendon, and Javier Figueroa, the mayor of University Place.

So on the Democrat side, we have one candidate from the Eastside (Habib), one candidate from South Puget Sound (Fraser), one candidate from Southern Washington (Moeller), and possibly one candidate from Snohomish County (Hobbs).  Gotta wonder if a Seattle Democrat will jump in the race, too. 

I imagine Habib, the Democratic Senate Whip, will be the favorite.  He's blind, Persian, and a rising star in the state Democratic Party.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Asian Nazi on March 11, 2016, 07:21:31 PM
So our edgy Governor followed through with his threat and vetoed all 27 bills on his desk this morning after the State Legislature failed to pass a budget.

The reaction was about what you'd expect.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 13, 2016, 07:12:14 PM
Quote
Several Democrats and Republicans have already jumped in the race to replace Owen. Democratic Sens. Cyrus Habib of Kirkland and Karen Fraser of Olympia, and Rep. Jim Moeller of Vancouver have all announced their candidacies. Sen. Steve Hobbs, D-Lake Stevens, has announced his interest.

Running as Republicans are former TV anchor and businessman Phillip Yin, former medical professional and radio host Martin McClendon, and Javier Figueroa, the mayor of University Place.

So on the Democrat side, we have one candidate from the Eastside (Habib), one candidate from South Puget Sound (Fraser), one candidate from Southern Washington (Moeller), and possibly one candidate from Snohomish County (Hobbs).  Gotta wonder if a Seattle Democrat will jump in the race, too. 

I imagine Habib, the Democratic Senate Whip, will be the favorite.  He's blind, Persian, and a rising star in the state Democratic Party.

Habib is an easy favorite, which concerns me - we have no margin for error in the State Senate, and his district once elected Rodney Tom.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 13, 2016, 07:15:05 PM
Quote
Several Democrats and Republicans have already jumped in the race to replace Owen. Democratic Sens. Cyrus Habib of Kirkland and Karen Fraser of Olympia, and Rep. Jim Moeller of Vancouver have all announced their candidacies. Sen. Steve Hobbs, D-Lake Stevens, has announced his interest.

Running as Republicans are former TV anchor and businessman Phillip Yin, former medical professional and radio host Martin McClendon, and Javier Figueroa, the mayor of University Place.

So on the Democrat side, we have one candidate from the Eastside (Habib), one candidate from South Puget Sound (Fraser), one candidate from Southern Washington (Moeller), and possibly one candidate from Snohomish County (Hobbs).  Gotta wonder if a Seattle Democrat will jump in the race, too. 

I imagine Habib, the Democratic Senate Whip, will be the favorite.  He's blind, Persian, and a rising star in the state Democratic Party.

Habib is an easy favorite, which concerns me - we have no margin for error in the State Senate, and his district once elected Rodney Tom.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on March 24, 2016, 03:00:45 PM
Jim Hargrove (My state senator) is retiring. (http://www.peninsuladailynews.com/article/20160322/NEWS/303229996/state-sen-jim-hargroves-retirement-prompts-campaign-plans-for-rep) State Rep. Kevin Van De Wege of Sequim (My hometown!) will run to replace him. Clallam County Commissioner Mike Chapman will run to replace Van De Wege. The Olympic Peninsula is fairly conservative, but it favors Democrats at a local level. I expect both Van De Wege and Chapman to win. Van De Wege is fairly conservative, but will be a big improvement over Hargrove.

Fun Fact: Chapman got his political start as a Republican, when he beat my grandmother for her seat on the county commission. The main issue my grandmother lost over? Wanting to ban billboards in the county.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 24, 2016, 03:58:01 PM
Jim Hargrove (My state senator) is retiring. (http://www.peninsuladailynews.com/article/20160322/NEWS/303229996/state-sen-jim-hargroves-retirement-prompts-campaign-plans-for-rep) State Rep. Kevin Van De Wege of Sequim (My hometown!) will run to replace him. Clallam County Commissioner Mike Chapman will run to replace Van De Wege. The Olympic Peninsula is fairly conservative, but it favors Democrats at a local level. I expect both Van De Wege and Chapman to win. Van De Wege is fairly conservative, but will be a big improvement over Hargrove.

Fun Fact: Chapman got his political start as a Republican, when he beat my grandmother for her seat on the county commission. The main issue my grandmother lost over? Wanting to ban billboards in the county.

Local politics really hinge on odd issues sometimes


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 07, 2016, 11:20:56 AM
Peter Goldmark is retiring from office of Land Commissioner. This is actually an office I could see some Republican from Eastern WA winning fairly easily with a knowledge of rural issues - not many rural Dems left with chops outside of Goldmark


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 11, 2016, 01:13:26 AM
Is Inslee expected to have a close race or is this going to be the first blowout in 16 years?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on April 11, 2016, 02:35:29 AM
Is Inslee expected to have a close race or is this going to be the first blowout in 16 years?

I suspect he'll win easily. If Reichert or McKenna run for his seat (both of which I doubt) it might be within single digits. But he's had a fairly innocuous tenure so far, and hasn't really done much to upset anybody, so I say he probably wins with around 15% of the vote.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on April 11, 2016, 09:32:31 AM
Is Inslee expected to have a close race or is this going to be the first blowout in 16 years?

I suspect he'll win easily. If Reichert or McKenna run for his seat (both of which I doubt) it might be within single digits. But he's had a fairly innocuous tenure so far, and hasn't really done much to upset anybody, so I say he probably wins with around 15% of the vote.

Well, with Cruz and Trump both unpopular in state - may be, but 8-10% seems more realistic range to me...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: cwt on April 16, 2016, 01:25:40 AM
Here are the margins for the last 3 elections:

2004: Gregoire +0.005, Kerry +7.18

2008: Gregoire +6.48, Obama +17.17

2012: Inslee +3.08, Obama +14.87


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on April 25, 2016, 03:19:02 PM
Former Seattle sportscaster Tony Ventrella has been recruited to run against Dave Reichert in WA-08. (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/former-sportscaster-tony-ventrella-to-challenge-reichert-in-8th-district/)

Ventrella has been talked about as a possible candidate for several cycles, but his stated intention of refraining from PAC money or large donations is worrying. But he has name rec, and has good charisma. He works fairly good as wave insurance in a 50-48 Obama '12 seat.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 26, 2016, 09:37:48 AM
Former Seattle sportscaster Tony Ventrella has been recruited to run against Dave Reichert in WA-08. (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/former-sportscaster-tony-ventrella-to-challenge-reichert-in-8th-district/)

Ventrella has been talked about as a possible candidate for several cycles, but his stated intention of refraining from PAC money or large donations is worrying. But he has name rec, and has good charisma. He works fairly good as wave insurance in a 50-48 Obama '12 seat.

I was worried we'd only have a warm body here, so this is good. I'd feel a lot better if he was running under the old map, though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 26, 2016, 02:14:48 PM
Fun times in Spokane Valley, which is now run by a city council majority that has ties to the militia movement and two of the remaining "moderate" Republicans have now retired, paving the way for a supermajority. Nobody has really been able to pin down what this majority's agenda is, but expect the usual Agenda 21 and other militia-flavored stuff. Noted nutcase State Rep. Matt Shea is tight with a lot of these guys.

I have a hard time thinking of anywhere else in this state where the GOP divide is between standard movement conservatives and legit militiamen/Bundyists. The Spokane County GOP is defined by these divisions, with Sheriff Ozzie and Mayor Condon in Spokane being the big fish on the "governing" side of this divide.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on May 08, 2016, 06:21:04 PM
My wife and I voted for Kasich today.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Türkisblau on May 09, 2016, 04:42:36 PM

You are the 1%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on May 10, 2016, 03:34:20 AM


That was the first ballot I ever threw in the trash.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Asian Nazi on May 11, 2016, 12:17:10 AM


That was the first ballot I ever threw in the trash.

Yeah was gonna troll vote for Carson but couldn't be arsed.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 11, 2016, 10:44:21 AM

I don't know if we're going to send ours in


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on May 12, 2016, 04:19:33 AM
Chris Vance has no chance of unseating Murray this election, but to his credit, he is on the #NeverTrump train. (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/gop-senate-candidate-vance-calls-trumps-views-insane-wont-vote-for-him/)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on May 19, 2016, 01:31:43 PM
Dems have a candidate for WA-03! State Rep. Jim Moeller has declared. (http://www.columbian.com/news/2016/may/18/moeller-to-run-for-congress-against-herrera-beutler/)

Moeller is a solid liberal who is definitely an underdog in an R+1 district, but it's nice to have a warm body here.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on May 20, 2016, 07:56:08 PM
The Filling period has concluded

No Republican Candidate for Attorney General, however  Bob Ferguson will not run unopposed and will face off with  Libertarian Party candidate  Joshua B. Trumbull.

 Former Seattle City Councillor Tina Podlodowski will challenge incumbent Republican SOS Kim Wyman.

 Clint Didier is running again in District 4 against Congressman  Dan Newhouse

Here is the full list of Candidates https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/Candidates-Who-Have-Filed.aspx (https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/Candidates-Who-Have-Filed.aspx)   


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Maxwell on May 20, 2016, 09:26:47 PM
lol Clint Didier.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on May 20, 2016, 11:15:37 PM
Didier honestly should've just ran for Public Lands Commissioner again.

This honestly looks like the worst recruitment cycle for the WA GOP in a while. Their congressional recruits are total nobodies, they couldn't even find some random asshole to run against Bob Ferguson (After the right wing was outraged over that florist case), their top Lt. Gov recruit used to work as a mouthpiece for the Chinese government, and Patty Murry and Jay Inslee will cruise to re-election.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on May 21, 2016, 12:17:35 AM
So, Kim Wyman is their only hope? Good SoS, IMHO....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 21, 2016, 09:12:06 PM
Darcy Burner filed to run for the House in LD5 #2. Jason Ritchie, another failed WA-8 candidate is running against incumbent Jay Rodne (R) in LD5 #1. Lol

Failed WA-1 candidate, John Koster is running for the House in LD39 #2.

Will Steve Litzow finally be taken down?
Also, Chris Hurst is retiring, so R+1 right there in the House.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on May 22, 2016, 12:53:45 AM
IIRC -  Litzow is very moderate, so i wouldn't underestimate his chances...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on May 23, 2016, 06:42:56 PM
The children have voted!

https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/mock-election/#/results

They're #FeelingTheBern, and mostly want to Make America Great Again, plus they think John Kasich is a dork and they prefer Ben Carson, who is listed as a drop-out with no photo in the Voter's Guide.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on May 23, 2016, 10:24:23 PM
Devil's advocate to you non-voters:

The more people who vote in the primary, the more humiliatingly high the turnout will be vs. the caucus system, and the more pressure on the parties to scrap the terrible caucus system.  Voting is going to send more of a signal than not voting.

Plus, fun election results!  Don't you care about fun election results?!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on May 23, 2016, 10:31:00 PM
Devil's advocate to you non-voters:

The more people who vote in the primary, the more humiliatingly high the turnout will be vs. the caucus system, and the more pressure on the parties to scrap the terrible caucus system.  Voting is going to send more of a signal than not voting.

Plus, fun election results!  Don't you care about fun election results?!

Good point. Too bad the ballot is in the trash already.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: cwt on May 23, 2016, 11:19:47 PM
Devil's advocate to you non-voters:

The more people who vote in the primary, the more humiliatingly high the turnout will be vs. the caucus system, and the more pressure on the parties to scrap the terrible caucus system.  Voting is going to send more of a signal than not voting.

Plus, fun election results!  Don't you care about fun election results?!

There's only one party in this state that still uses the caucus system, and it's not switching any time soon.

I agree, though. It's so easy to vote in this state, so why not do it?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on May 24, 2016, 12:38:54 AM
If any of you actually want to vote and replaced your ballot, you can actually print a ballot online and mail it in.  Just enter your data below and click "My Ballot":

https://weiapplets.sos.wa.gov/MyVote/

Devil's advocate to you non-voters:

The more people who vote in the primary, the more humiliatingly high the turnout will be vs. the caucus system, and the more pressure on the parties to scrap the terrible caucus system.  Voting is going to send more of a signal than not voting.

Plus, fun election results!  Don't you care about fun election results?!

There's only one party in this state that still uses the caucus system, and it's not switching any time soon.

I agree, though. It's so easy to vote in this state, so why not do it?

Eh, I'm not convinced the Democrats will never change.  There were considerable portions of the party moving for it before the disaster of the caucus system this year.  It's all too dependent on internal party nonsense, but the non-representative aspect of the caucus is the single most effective talking point in Democratic circles.  The higher the turnout in the non-binding primary, the stronger that argument gets.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on May 24, 2016, 11:13:59 PM
Some municipality results for my home county (Snohomish):

DEMS
Arlington: Clinton 51.16 - 48.36
Bothell: Clinton 53.55 - 46.16
Brier: Clinton 55.30 - 44.44
Edmonds: Clinton 59.99 - 39.71
Everett: Clinton 50.44 - 49.21
Lake Stevens: Sanders 51.03 - 48.61
Lynnwood: 54.39 - 45.10
Marysville: Sanders 50.71 - 49.00
Mill Creek: Clinton 59.98 - 39.76
Monroe: Sanders 52.71 - 46.97
Mountlake Terrace: Clinton 51.06 - 48.67
Mukilteo: Clinton 59.40 - 40.42
Snohomish: Sanders 51.98 - 47.43
Stanwood: Clinton 51.44 - 48.18
Tulalip: Clinton 54.56 - 45.02
Woodway: Clinton 71.90 - 26.80

GOP
Arlington: Trump 79.55 - Cruz 9.22 - Kasich 5.81
Bothell: Trump 70.67 - Kasich 14.17 - Cruz 8.61
Brier: Trump 67.25 - Cruz 13.19 - Kasich 11.87
Edmonds: Trump 67.42 - Kasich 17.56 - Cruz 9.48
Everett: Trump 75.16 - Cruz 10.08 - Kasich 8.51
Lake Stevens: Trump 75.58 - Cruz 9.94 - Kasich 8.23
Lynnwood: Trump 73.19 - Cruz 11.31 - Kasich 8.45
Marysville: Trump 77.26 - Cruz 9.85 - Kasich 6.64
Mill Creek: Trump 69.18 - Kasich 16.19 - Cruz 9.46
Monroe: Trump 72.38 - Cruz 13.63 - Kasich 7.24
Mountlake Terrace: Trump 69.93 - Cruz 14.41 - Kasich 10.14
Mukilteo: Trump 70.85 - Kasich 13.92 - Cruz 9.69
Snohomish: Trump 70.65 - Cruz 12.46 - Kasich 10.41
Stanwood: Trump 73.68 - Cruz 10.53 - Kasich 10.16
Tulalip: Trump 82.87 - Kasich 7.34 - Cruz 5.81
Woodway: Trump 73.05 - Kasich 16.31 - Cruz 7.09


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on May 24, 2016, 11:28:45 PM
Some other results:

Whitman County
Pullman: Sanders 53.26 - 46.74 / Trump 60.65 - Kasich 18.04 - Cruz 14.15 - Carson 7.15
Colfax: Sanders 62.50 - 37.50 / Trump 74.73 - Cruz 11.54 - Carson 8.24 - Kasich 5.49

Thurston County
Olympia: Sanders 54.22 - 45.78 / Trump 70.53 - Kasich 15.58 - Cruz 10.37
Lacey: Clinton 57.64 - 42.36 / Trump 70.37 - Kasich 13.35 - Cruz 11.85
Tumwater: Sanders 50.02 - 49.98 / Trump 73.98 - Kasich 12.68 - Cruz 9.71

Island County
Oak Harbor: Clinton 50.27 - 49.73 / Trump 66.83 - Cruz 17.51 - Kasich 11.40
Camano Island: Clinton 59.22 - 40.78 / Trump 70.90 - Cruz 12.94 - Kasich 12.73

Skagit County
Anacortes: Clinton 51.66 - 48.34 / Trump 75.14 - Kasich 13.40 - Cruz 8.42
Burlington: Sanders 51.20 - 48.80 / Trump 80.97 - Kasich 7.40 - Cruz 7.19
Mount Vernon: Clinton 50.44 - 49.56 / Trump 77.21 - Kasich 10.19 - Cruz 7.85
Sedro-Wooley: Sanders 54.77 - 45.23 / Trump 79.51 - Cruz 12.06 - Kasich 5.38

Jefferson County
Port Townsend: Sanders 58.60 - 41.40 / Trump 74.39 - Kasich 15.65 - Cruz 5.69
Port Ludlow: Clinton 61.55 - 38.45 / Trump 76.08 - Kasich 15.16 - Cruz 5.10

Clallam County
Port Angeles: Sanders 52.95 - 47.05 / Trump 78.12 - Kasich 9.22 - Cruz 7.76
Sequim: Clinton 55.65 - 44.35 / Trump 73.81 - Kasich 10.72 - Cruz 8.90 - Carson 6.57
Forks: Sanders 55.63 - 44.37 / Trump 77.98 - Cruz 12.39 - Kasich 5.50


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on May 25, 2016, 02:26:59 AM
Some other results:

Clallam County
Sequim: Clinton 55.65 - 44.35

:D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on May 25, 2016, 09:37:08 PM
OK, this is kind of fascinating.  So far, the partisanship of ballots is nearly identical to the 2008 Presidential primary -- actually very slightly more Democratic, 57.5% vs. 56.6% (+0.9%).  That's impressive, considering that the 2008 primary actually counted a little bit on the Democratic side.

However, what's even more impressive is how unevenly distributed the changes are in partisanship since 2008.  Here are the counties, sorted from biggest gain in % Democratic to biggest loss.  This is obviously far from random variation.  (Also, King County will probably get even higher as left-leaning late ballots are counted.)

[to get swing in Atlas terms, double all these numbers]

King   +6.4%
San Juan   +3.9%
Jefferson   +3.8%
Kitsap   +2.2%
Island   +0.7%
Benton   +0.4%
Clark   +0.1%
Snohomish   +0.1%
Clallam   -0.1%
Whatcom   -0.5%
Skagit   -1.0%
Spokane   -1.2%
Chelan   -1.4%
Franklin   -2.1%
Thurston   -2.1%
Skamania   -2.4%
Walla Walla   -3.5%
Whitman   -3.5%
Klickitat   -4.1%
Pierce   -4.4%
Okanogan   -4.9%
Kittitas   -5.1%
Ferry   -5.7%
Pend Oreille   -6.0%
Stevens   -6.0%
Mason   -6.6%
Grant   -7.0%
Columbia   -7.4%
Douglas   -7.6%
Lewis   -7.8%
Wahkiakum   -8.0%
Garfield   -8.1%
Yakima   -8.2%
Adams   -8.6%
Cowlitz   -8.9%
Asotin   -9.2%
Pacific   -11.1%
Grays Harbor   -11.5%
Lincoln   -12.4%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on May 25, 2016, 09:57:52 PM
Seems fairly correlated with Trump's vote share, though not exclusively.

EDIT: R-squared of .38, but Garfield County is a big outlier. Remove it, and the R-squared jumps to .55


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on May 26, 2016, 12:15:30 AM
Seems fairly correlated with Trump's vote share, though not exclusively.

EDIT: R-squared of .38, but Garfield County is a big outlier. Remove it, and the R-squared jumps to .55

I would also guess a strong correlation with income and especially education.  That's what I think seeing Benton up there, for instance.  It also looks like socially liberal areas that aren't upscale (like Jefferson) saw gains.  There is definitely some systemic primary crossover going on vs. 2008.

For instance: I looked back at 2008, and Bainbridge Island was 73.8% Democratic in the primary.  That was with Obama getting his second-highest share of the primary vote of any city in the state.  This year, Bainbridge is 81.0% Democratic.  Plus Kasich got 27.6% there, and I'd bet some of those voters are less than loyal.

The Eastside is probably going to be nasty for Trump.  On the other hand, it looks like working-class white areas with ancestral Democratic voting (the Coast, Kelso-Longview, Clarkston) are exhibiting significant D crossover to Trump.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on May 29, 2016, 05:01:30 AM
King County partisanship
() (https://i1.someimage.com/iGKaUmn.jpg)

Clinton vs. Sanders (Clinton in blue, Sanders red)
() (https://i1.someimage.com/IgAEqTQ.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: cwt on May 30, 2016, 05:18:08 PM
 That's impressive, considering that the 2008 primary actually counted a little bit on the Democratic side.


It was also a beauty contest.

I remember voting for Ron Paul in that election, only because the Democratic primary was meaningless.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on May 30, 2016, 07:55:16 PM
King County really looks like it is almost all Democratic. Traditional Republican strongholds like Sammamish and even Maple Valley / Covington look like the majority of voters were Democrats... really goes to show how much King County has transformed.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on May 30, 2016, 10:44:37 PM
 That's impressive, considering that the 2008 primary actually counted a little bit on the Democratic side.


It was also a beauty contest.

I remember voting for Ron Paul in that election, only because the Democratic primary was meaningless.

sorry, I wrote that wrong: I meant to say because the Republican primary actually counted this time, so this time it was even more more-relevant than the D primary.  I just inverted when I meant to write, because I'm a dumbass.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on June 08, 2016, 05:02:25 PM
Just waiting on Wahkiakum County and then I can make some statewide precinct maps for the presidential primaries


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on June 15, 2016, 09:36:49 AM
() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_15_06_16_9_33_54.png)

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_15_06_16_9_35_55.png)

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_15_06_16_9_34_32.png)

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_15_06_16_9_36_28.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on June 28, 2016, 04:14:23 AM
^ Great maps!  And you obviously had more success getting results out of Wahkiakum County than I have...but I've mostly got non-suppressed results out of the rest (just waiting on Whitman), so here they are:

For cities with 25+ voters:

% Clinton
Hunts Point - 90.70%
Yarrow Point - 77.95%
South Prairie - 77.78%
Clyde Hill - 75.22%
Medina - 75.00%
Mercer Island - 73.22%
LaCrosse - 70.83%
Woodway - 70.44%
Beaux Arts Village - 68.75%
Warden - 68.18%

Rich people and some random farm towns with old populations.

% Sanders
Skykomish - 74.36%
Tonasket - 73.27%
Marcus - 69.23%
Index - 68.89%
Springdale - 68.00%
Friday Harbor - 67.43%
Everson - 66.15%
Rockford - 65.71%
Vader - 65.52%
Cheney - 65.25%

A mix of hippies and working-class rural towns with some hippie leanings, plus Cheney (Eastern Washington University).  Everson in Whatcom County's conservative Nooksack Valley is interesting...I'm not sure why it was so pro-Sanders when Lynden barely voted for him.

% Trump
Lyman - 95.74%
Pe Ell - 95.05%
Hamilton - 93.75%
Rock Island - 93.18%
Springdale - 92.86%
South Prairie - 92.45%
Kittitas - 91.14%
Mansfield - 89.39%
Creston - 89.19%
Pateros - 88.57%

A bunch of small, working-class towns.  Almost all are super-white.  Most of the more Hispanic towns weren't this pro-Trump, probably because of the few Hispanic Republicans.

% Kasich
Beaux Arts Village - 37.50%
Clyde Hill - 28.65%
Bainbridge Island - 27.24%
Medina - 26.38%
Mercer Island - 25.14%
Yarrow Point - 25.00%
Langley - 23.38%
Ruston - 22.73%
Seattle - 22.38%
Hunts Point - 22.06%

Rich/educated voters and those living around a lot of liberals.

Cruz
Prescott - 22.45%
Everson - 20.91%
Pomeroy - 20.80%
Garfield - 20.00%
Hartline - 19.44%
Latah - 19.44%
Colton - 19.23%
Royal City - 18.92%
Sumas - 18.75%
Bingen - 18.60%

I guess these places all seem like they'd have a lot of conservative religious voters.  Otherwise, I'm not sure how to distinguish these areas from the above list.  Cruz also did really well on military bases.

Carson
Almost certainly all statistical noise in very small towns, except in College Place (12.83%), which has a Seventh-Day Adventist college.

% Democratic
Nespelem - 93.10%
Mabton - 89.57%
Seattle - 87.62%
Mattawa - 86.96%
Port Townsend - 85.96%
Wapato - 85.14%
Langley - 85.11%
Bainbridge Island - 80.03%
Lake Forest Park - 77.91%
Shoreline - 76.65%

Seattle and its inner suburbs, plus hippie towns, Hispanics, and Native Americans.

% Republican
Krupp - 7.96%
Hartline - 16.28%
Coulee City - 19.53%
Washtucna - 20.27%
Mansfield - 21.43%
Prescott - 22.22%
St. John - 22.54%
Starbuck - 23.08%
Odessa - 23.41%
Lynden - 23.45%

Small towns, mostly agriculture-dependent.  #1 Krupp is the smallest town in the state, in fact.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on July 21, 2016, 11:42:43 AM
Anyone else vote in the primary yet?

My ballot
Senator: Mohammad Said (D)
Representative (WA-05): Dave Wilson (I)
Governor: Bill Bryant (R)
Lt. Governor: Steve Hobbs (D)
Secretary of State: Kim Wyman (R)
State Treasurer: Marko Liias (D)
State Auditor: Mark Miloscia (R)
Attorney General: Joshua Trumbull (L)
CPL: Hilary Franz (D)
SPI: Erin Jones
Insurance Comm: Mike Kreidler (D)
State Rep (LD-09): Mary Dye (R)
Supreme Court: Barbara Madsen


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 21, 2016, 12:12:53 PM
Anyone else vote in the primary yet?

My ballot
Senator: Mohammad Said (D)
Representative (WA-05): Dave Wilson (I)
Governor: Bill Bryant (R)
Lt. Governor: Steve Hobbs (D)
Secretary of State: Kim Wyman (R)
State Treasurer: Marko Liias (D)
State Auditor: Mark Miloscia (R)
Attorney General: Joshua Trumbull (L)
CPL: Hilary Franz (D)
SPI: Erin Jones
Insurance Comm: Mike Kreidler (D)
State Rep (LD-09): Mary Dye (R)
Supreme Court: Barbara Madsen


You're in the 5th too? Which part?

As much as Steve Hobbs aligns with my views, I don't know that Id want to risk his Senate seat.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on July 21, 2016, 12:27:20 PM

Pullman, for now. Previously in Cheney.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 21, 2016, 12:34:03 PM

Very nice. We've lived in Spokane the last four years but are in the process of moving to the Seattle area again


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on July 21, 2016, 12:57:16 PM

Very nice. We've lived in Spokane the last four years but are in the process of moving to the Seattle area again

I hope to move back to the west side in about nine months or so, but I'm glad to have lived over here. I've come to respect and appreciate both sides of the state in different ways.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 21, 2016, 01:18:23 PM

Very nice. We've lived in Spokane the last four years but are in the process of moving to the Seattle area again

I hope to move back to the west side in about nine months or so, but I'm glad to have lived over here. I've come to respect and appreciate both sides of the state in different ways.

It's definitely fulfilling


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Vega on July 21, 2016, 02:47:23 PM
Does Bob Hasegawa have any promise for higher office?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 24, 2016, 05:30:02 PM
My Ballot:

Inslee
Murray
Wilson (I)
Habib
Volz (R)
Holy (R)
Wyman (R)
Miloscia (R)
Verner
Kreidler


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on July 25, 2016, 06:19:29 PM
Gov:
Inslee (D)

Sen:
Murray (D)

Lt. Gov:
Habib (D)

Secretary of State:
Podlodowski (D)

Attorney General:
Ferguson (D)

Treasurer:
Liias (D)

Auditor:
Sprung (D)

Public Lands:
Franz (D)

Superintendent:
Jones (D)

Insurance Comm:
Kreidler (D)

House:
Kilmer (D)

State Senate:
Van De Wege (D)

State House 1:
Chapman (D)

State House 2:
Tharinger (D)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: evergreenarbor on July 28, 2016, 12:28:30 AM
Governor: Jay Inslee (D)
Senate: Patty Murray (D)
Lieutenant Governor: Cyrus Habib (D)
Secretary of State: Tina Podlowdowski (D)
Attorney General: Bob Ferguson (D)
State Treasurer: Alec Fisken (D)
State Auditor: Jeff Sprung (D)
Commissioner of Public Lands: Dave Upthegrove (D)
Superintendent of Public Instruction: Robin Fleming
Insurance Commissioner: Mike Kreidler (D)
Congressional District 7: Pramila Jayapal (D)
State Senate District 46: No primary
State House District 46, Pos. 1: Gerry Pollet (D)
State House District 46, Pos. 2: Left blank (incumbent running with no opposition)
Supreme Court Justice, Pos. 5: Left blank (don't like any of the candidates)
King County Superior Court, Pos. 44: Cathy Moore
City of Seattle Initiative No. 123: Yes
City of Seattle Proposition No. 1: Yes


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 30, 2016, 09:22:22 PM
http://rrhelections.com/index.php/2016/07/30/wa-ks-mo-legislative-primary-preview/

RRH's primary preview. Any thoughts on the Leg races this year?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on July 31, 2016, 12:34:49 AM
http://rrhelections.com/index.php/2016/07/30/wa-ks-mo-legislative-primary-preview/

RRH's primary preview. Any thoughts on the Leg races this year?

Naturally, only "local" people may present more detailed information. AFAIK - legislature will be split almost equally (as it is now), with Democrats gradually squeezing remainning Republicans in Seattle suburbs, and Republicans gaining some formerly traditionally Democratic rural areas (on Peninsula, and some other). Very interested in ideological characteristics of candidates: even without Sheldon not every Democrat in Washington is "far left", and not every Republican - "far right"..


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: cwt on July 31, 2016, 08:51:19 PM
U.S. Senator – Philip L. Cornell (D)
U.S. Representative (District 4) – Doug McKinley (D)
Governor – James Deal (D)
Lt. Governor – Cyrus Habib (D)
Secretary of State – Tim Turner (L)
State Treasurer – Alec Fisken (D)
State Auditor – Mark Wilson (Independent)
Attorney General – Joshua B. Trumbull (L)
Commissioner of Public Lands – Mary Verner (D)
Superintendent of Public Instruction – David Spring
Insurance Commissioner – Justin Murta (L)
State Senator (District 12) – Jon Wyss (R)
State Representative Pos. 1 (District 12) – Dan Maher (D)
State Representative Pos. 2 (District 12) – Garn G. Christensen (R)
Justice Position 5 – Barbara Madsen


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ebowed on August 01, 2016, 06:28:58 PM
U.S. Senator - Patty Murray (D)
U.S. Representative (District 2) - Mike Lapointe (D)
Governor - Jay Inslee (D)
Lt. Governor - Cyrus Habib (D)
Secretary of State - Tina Podlowdowski (D)
State Treasurer - Marko Liias (D)
State Auditor - Jeff Sprung (D)
Attorney General - Bob Ferguson (D)
Commissioner of Public Lands - Hilary Franz (D)
Superintendent of Public Instruction - Chris Reykdal
Insurance Commissioner - Mike Kreidler (D)
State Representative Pos. 1 (District 38) - June Robinson (D)
State Representative Pos. 2 (District 38) - Mike Sells (D)
State Supreme Court, Justice Position 5 - John Scannell


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 01, 2016, 07:49:53 PM
Really hoping Jayapal doesn't make the general. The country needs to show Bernie loud and clear that Socialism is not the answer.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 02, 2016, 10:13:52 PM
First results in from Lewis County. Vance leading all GOPers for Senate. Bryant up big. Wide open race for SPI. Hobbs leading Dems for LtGov. Treasurer currently R vs. R.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 02, 2016, 10:18:43 PM
A big dump now, mostly from the southern part of the state. Close race between Hobbs and Fraser for second in LtGov. Treasurer still RvR.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 02, 2016, 10:32:47 PM
Most of the west side now reporting. Habib pulls ahead of Hobbs and Fraser. Still R vs. R for Treasurer. Erin Jones pulls ahead for SPI.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 02, 2016, 10:36:50 PM
WA-04 currently R vs. R: Newhouse vs Didier rematch
WA-07: Jayapal in first, McDermott just ahead of Walkinshaw for second


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Maxwell on August 02, 2016, 10:37:37 PM
Big vote dump from King county area and others - now Inslee is up big.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 02, 2016, 10:39:14 PM
Big vote dump from King county area and others - now Inslee is up big.

As would be expected; if Inslee weren't ahead, he'd be in big trouble.

That said, he is below 50% and cratering in the Yakima area.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: evergreenarbor on August 02, 2016, 10:40:04 PM
R v. R in WA-04 doesn't surprise me at all.

Glad to see Habib and Jayapal winning. And it looks like Wyman might end up coming second in the primary. Should she be worried about that?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 02, 2016, 10:42:37 PM
Wyman's running about even with 2012 when she barely won, though she seems to be doing slightly better in Pierce County/SW Washington.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on August 02, 2016, 10:45:32 PM
Thanks to our state's wonderful top 2 primary the Treasurer race (at least according to SOS website) is R v R at the current moment.  3 Democrats splitting the vote and 2 Republicans splitting the vote.

Dang it WA.  I was so looking forward to finally achieving the WA, OR, CA no Republican elected to statewide office.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 02, 2016, 10:46:27 PM
Cathy McMorris Rodgers is actually doing a lot worse than I was expecting.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 02, 2016, 10:49:22 PM
Thanks to our state's wonderful top 2 primary the Treasurer race (at least according to SOS website) is R v R at the current moment.  3 Democrats splitting the vote and 2 Republicans splitting the vote.

Dang it WA.  I was so looking forward to finally achieving the WA, OR, CA no Republican elected to statewide office.

Wyman would probably win in November anyway, though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on August 02, 2016, 10:57:47 PM
Point taken - though Wyman is running for SOS, so we are talking about two different races.  I honestly haven't followed the SOS or Treasurer race in depth enough to really make any intelligent comment about who will win or lose.

I just think the Treasurer race shows what the "top 2" primary can do.   It can make a party with less votes overall move two candidates to the general election.  Oh well, I guess you get what you vote for.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: evergreenarbor on August 02, 2016, 11:02:16 PM
Point taken - though Wyman is running for SOS, so we are talking about two different races.  I honestly haven't followed the SOS or Treasurer race in depth enough to really make any intelligent comment about who will win or lose.

I just think the Treasurer race shows what the "top 2" primary can do.   It can make a party with less votes overall move two candidates to the general election.  Oh well, I guess you get what you vote for.

One of the political science professors I know likes to call those "crapshoot results."


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 02, 2016, 11:41:05 PM
Anyone have any insight on how Marty McClendon of all people (who has zero political experience) is leading the LtGov race?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: evergreenarbor on August 02, 2016, 11:47:38 PM
Split field, maybe? He's only getting 20% of the vote - maybe he has a small number of very dedicated supporters.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 03, 2016, 12:28:15 AM
Summary of results for tonight:

Senate: Murray leads Vance 53-28. All D's add up to 58.15%, All R's add up to 35.89%. Utterly Safe D.

Governor: Inslee leads Bryant 49-38. All D's add up to 53.64%, All R's add up to 43.33%. Probably not going to flip, but Inslee will probably underperform Hillary by a few points while Murray has a shot of overperforming Hillary.

WA-4: Newhouse has the 1st slot, but the 2nd slot is close - Didier (R) leads McKinley (D) by under 3k votes. Worth watching the late ballots.

WA-7: Utterly Despicable. Jayapal (Socialist) easily wins the first slot. Whoever ultimately wins out for the 2nd slot between McDermott (D) and Walkinshaw (D) - McDermott leads by 586 votes atm - needs to run an aggressive campaign - America must be shown that Socialism is not the answer.

WA-8: Reichert has the 1st slot, but the 2nd slot is close - Ventrella (D) leads Ramos (D) by about 3500 votes. Worth watching the late ballots.

WA-10: Time to laugh at Politico, who lists Ferguson, who placed third, as a third partier when she's actually a Democrat. Heck (D, inc.) probably doesn't enjoy being under 50%, but the cumulative D vote adds up to 59.51% to 36.94% for the only republican. He's fine for November.

Sec. State: Wyman ahead 48-46 so far. She hasn't locked down the first slot, but she has it for now. Watch the late ballots.

Treasurer: R vs. R, barring a late surge for Comerford

Auditor: The Republican placed first, but the two democrats add to 52.13% to 37.43% for the only republican. McCarthy (D) has the 2nd slot and should be okay in November.

Attorney General: Time to laugh at R's for not even running a candidate for an office they held before the 2012 elections. Ferguson (D, inc.) easily defeated a Libertarian and will do so again in November.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 03, 2016, 03:18:13 AM
All the Senate Ds combined gets 49.54% of the vote in Walla Walla county. Will be interesting to see if Murray can pick it up.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on August 03, 2016, 04:09:52 AM
Anyone have any insight on how Marty McClendon of all people (who has zero political experience) is leading the LtGov race?

He's the only Republican with a visible campaign, and he has a small following from his radio show. He ran in the 6th District last cycle and got whupped, and that is more experience than the other Republicans running for Lt. Governor.

Anyway, tonight was good aside from the stupid Treasurer race. Top 2 is stupid.

Other notes:

-Jayapal looks to be the strong favorite in the 7th, regardless of whether it's McDermott or Walkinshaw she's facing. Sorry Wulfric :(((((

-Glad Habib looks to be making to the general as of now. Lt. Gov is a useless position, but it gives Habib the platform to set himself up for a run at a bigger office.

-F**k Tony Ventrella.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on August 03, 2016, 04:36:56 AM
Top 2 is marvellous. May be now Democrats will learn finally - which number of candidatates they must run without risk of losing. Mathematics here is not that difficult (state that as professional mathematician))))

BTW - 2 Republicans got almost 49% of Treasurer vote, so - candidates must be not that bad))))


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on August 03, 2016, 05:17:50 AM
Top 2 is marvellous. May be now Democrats will learn finally - which number of candidatates they must run without risk of losing. Mathematics here is not that difficult (state that as professional mathematician))))

BTW - 2 Republicans got almost 49% of Treasurer vote, so - candidates must be not that bad))))

So the Democratic party should try to push any extra Democrats out of the race should they enter? I'm sure the base will love that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: mds32 on August 03, 2016, 05:47:02 AM
Well the fact of the matter is now the GOP of Washington will have 2 (if Wyman wins) statewide officeholders again. Barring a huge surge for one of the Democrats. It isn't really the Democrats fault here, obviously the GOP candidates had (under the radar) very good campaigns since they are taking up a larger share of the vote than the SOS race. Nevertheless it is an unwanted loss for the Democrats in a state where since 2008 we have seen them lose more than gain ground.

Since 2008 the Democrats have picked up the AG office.
Since 2008 the Republicans have picked up the Treasurer office, State Senate, 2 votes away in the State House.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on August 03, 2016, 09:39:30 AM
Top 2 is marvellous. May be now Democrats will learn finally - which number of candidatates they must run without risk of losing. Mathematics here is not that difficult (state that as professional mathematician))))

BTW - 2 Republicans got almost 49% of Treasurer vote, so - candidates must be not that bad))))

So the Democratic party should try to push any extra Democrats out of the race should they enter? I'm sure the base will love that.

I don't care about "base". Neither Democratic, nor Republican. Personally they may be finest people, but as a group i dislike it immensely....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on August 03, 2016, 02:41:09 PM
Top 2 is marvellous. May be now Democrats will learn finally - which number of candidatates they must run without risk of losing. Mathematics here is not that difficult (state that as professional mathematician))))

BTW - 2 Republicans got almost 49% of Treasurer vote, so - candidates must be not that bad))))

So the Democratic party should try to push any extra Democrats out of the race should they enter? I'm sure the base will love that.

I don't care about "base". Neither Democratic, nor Republican. Personally they may be finest people, but as a group i dislike it immensely....

Ironically enough, top two primaries hurt the beloved "Mavericks" in favour of bland people pleaders.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Kingpoleon on August 03, 2016, 04:11:20 PM
This title has been annoying me for a long time.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 03, 2016, 05:03:36 PM
All the Senate Ds combined gets 49.54% of the vote in Walla Walla county. Will be interesting to see if Murray can pick it up.

A looooooooot of Westsiders moving there to retire/drink lots of wine/run wineries. Wouldn't be surprised if it trends left pretty sharply in the next decade


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 03, 2016, 08:04:05 PM
Walkinshaw takes the lead for WA-7 2nd slot after the first day of late ballot counting.

Also, Wyman is still up 48-46.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on August 03, 2016, 11:30:58 PM
Top 2 is marvellous. May be now Democrats will learn finally - which number of candidatates they must run without risk of losing. Mathematics here is not that difficult (state that as professional mathematician))))

BTW - 2 Republicans got almost 49% of Treasurer vote, so - candidates must be not that bad))))

So the Democratic party should try to push any extra Democrats out of the race should they enter? I'm sure the base will love that.

I don't care about "base". Neither Democratic, nor Republican. Personally they may be finest people, but as a group i dislike it immensely....

Ironically enough, top two primaries hurt the beloved "Mavericks" in favour of bland people pleaders.

Disagree. Under "normal" primary system we would get only far-far-left Democrats and far-far-right Republicans in Washington state, just s we get them elsewhere. We mostly get them under top 2 as well, but variaty is still somewhat greater..


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 04, 2016, 09:49:11 PM
Update: Clint Didier can now be projected to win the 2nd slot in WA-4. Still too close to call for the 2nd slots in the 7th and the 8th.

It appears that Inslee will be held to a single digit margin once everything is in

Wyman's margin isn't 48%-46% anymore - it's 49%-45% now!

Treasurer is clearly going to be R vs R. Democrats not catching up at all.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ebowed on August 05, 2016, 03:31:32 AM
Thanks to our state's wonderful top 2 primary the Treasurer race (at least according to SOS website) is R v R at the current moment.  3 Democrats splitting the vote and 2 Republicans splitting the vote.

Dang it WA.  I was so looking forward to finally achieving the WA, OR, CA no Republican elected to statewide office.

Which one is worse?  I don't really know what I'm supposed to do where an election has two options that are both Republicans.  That seems like a cruel joke.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on August 05, 2016, 08:35:11 AM
Just out of curiosity what is up with these people running from the "Independent" Democratic Party.

Are these people who want to join in the coalition thing with the Republicans in the legislature? Or are they just saying that because they think it will get them more votes to label themselves as "independent"?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 08, 2016, 01:32:29 AM
Two party breakdown for King County (US Senate race):
Seattle: 88-12 Democrat
Suburbs: 65-35 Democrat
Total: 74-26 Democrat

Yes, you read that right. King County was 65% Democrat without Seattle.

:o


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 08, 2016, 11:18:22 AM
Two party breakdown for King County (US Senate race):
Seattle: 88-12 Democrat
Suburbs: 65-35 Democrat
Total: 74-26 Democrat

Yes, you read that right. King County was 65% Democrat without Seattle.

:o

Eh, the Senate race isn't really that competitive though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 08, 2016, 11:48:05 AM
Two party breakdown for King County (US Senate race):
Seattle: 88-12 Democrat
Suburbs: 65-35 Democrat
Total: 74-26 Democrat

Yes, you read that right. King County was 65% Democrat without Seattle.

:o

Republicans basically conceded the senate race months ago.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 08, 2016, 12:03:04 PM
Two party breakdown for King County (US Senate race):
Seattle: 88-12 Democrat
Suburbs: 65-35 Democrat
Total: 74-26 Democrat

Yes, you read that right. King County was 65% Democrat without Seattle.

:o

King County has to be where Democrats take back the Senate. Litzow (though I like him), Fain, Miloscia and Hill should all be the top targets. Easier said than done, of course


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Nyvin on August 08, 2016, 03:49:37 PM
Bleh....Stupid five way race for Treasurer,   what a mess.

http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/State-Treasurer.html

If you take any one of the three Dems out the other two would win easily,  possibly even shutting the two Republicans out.   

Looks like the GOP gets an easy pickup this year,   the WA Dems better win that SoS office!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Kingpoleon on August 08, 2016, 03:59:57 PM
Bleh....Stupid five way race for Treasurer,   what a mess.

http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/State-Treasurer.html

If you take any one of the three Dems out the other two would win easily,  possibly even shutting the two Republicans out.   

Looks like the GOP gets an easy pickup this year,   the WA Dems better win that SoS office!
It's a little ironic that you used the SoS site as a source...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on August 08, 2016, 05:21:25 PM
Two party breakdown for King County (US Senate race):
Seattle: 88-12 Democrat
Suburbs: 65-35 Democrat
Total: 74-26 Democrat

Yes, you read that right. King County was 65% Democrat without Seattle.

:o

Eh, the Senate race isn't really that competitive though.

The Democrats even have 70% of the two party vote in the race for Governor! I didn't think King County could get much more Democratic, but here we are.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 08, 2016, 09:05:38 PM
Based on late ballots, calling the Washington 7th 2nd slot for Walkinshaw (Jayapal has the first slot) and the Washington 8th 2nd slot for Ventrella (Reichert has the first slot).

Counting will continue for another week - 35k ballots left statewide but it's not enough to realistically change anything. Treasurer is mathematically R vs. R now. Wyman isn't quite mathematically locked into slot 1 yet for SOS, but it would take quite the margin among the remaining ballots for Podlowski to catch up. It has narrowed back to 48-46 though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Kingpoleon on August 08, 2016, 09:30:01 PM
Which of the Treasurer candidates is more moderate?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 09, 2016, 07:04:21 PM
Wyman's 1st round victory is mathematically locked in now.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 11, 2016, 06:34:13 PM
Precinct map for the 42nd LD's first house position.  The Incumbent Republican won 52%-40%.

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5422_11_08_16_6_29_19.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: evergreenarbor on August 11, 2016, 06:37:24 PM
The difference between Bellingham and Lynden is huge. I wonder if the 42nd is one of the most polarized districts in the state?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on August 11, 2016, 06:52:27 PM
The difference between Bellingham and Lynden is huge. I wonder if the 42nd is one of the most polarized districts in the state?

Without a doubt.  :P  lol  I just wish it included more of Bellingham.  Obama got a plurality of it's votes last time around, but all of it's legislators are Republicans.  Redistricting after the 2010 wave certainly helped them.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: evergreenarbor on August 11, 2016, 07:22:19 PM
The difference between Bellingham and Lynden is huge. I wonder if the 42nd is one of the most polarized districts in the state?

Without a doubt.  :P  lol  I just wish it included more of Bellingham.  Obama got a plurality of it's votes last time around, but all of it's legislators are Republicans.  Redistricting after the 2010 wave certainly helped them.

Just so long as it doesn't annex WWU. I like being in the 40th. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on August 11, 2016, 11:23:40 PM
For such a Democratic state at the Presidential and congressional levels, why are Republicans so close to taking full control of the legislature? Compared to Oregon, Washington looks like a toss-up between the two parties -here's the breakdown as of August this year:

WA Senate

Democrats: 24
Republicans: 25

WA House

Democrats: 50
Republicans: 48

https://ballotpedia.org/Washington_State_Legislature

OR Senate

Democrats: 18
Republicans: 12

OR House

Democrats: 35
Republicans: 25

https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_State_Legislature


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ebowed on August 12, 2016, 01:25:35 AM
Which of the Treasurer candidates is more moderate?

I don't know what kind of moderate identifies with the Republican party these days.  They must both be pretty old-fashioned.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 12, 2016, 01:49:55 AM
Which of the Treasurer candidates is more moderate?

I don't know what kind of moderate identifies with the Republican party these days.  They must both be pretty old-fashioned.

Err...George Pataki, Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan, Lisa Murkowski, Mark Kirk, Carlos Curbelo, Bruce Poliquin, Susan Collins...even within Washington you have Steve Litzow, Andy Hill, Rob McKenna, Kim Wyman, maybe Dino Rossi.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ebowed on August 12, 2016, 01:53:56 AM
Which of the Treasurer candidates is more moderate?

I don't know what kind of moderate identifies with the Republican party these days.  They must both be pretty old-fashioned.

Err...George Pataki, Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan, Lisa Murkowski, Mark Kirk, Carlos Curbelo, Bruce Poliquin, Susan Collins...even within Washington you have Steve Litzow, Andy Hill, Rob McKenna, Kim Wyman, maybe Dino Rossi.

Those people are all clueless and terrible.  Get a grip.  Suffice it to say that I will not be recruiting you for advice on how to vote for Washington State Treasurer.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 12, 2016, 02:13:14 AM
Which of the Treasurer candidates is more moderate?

I don't know what kind of moderate identifies with the Republican party these days.  They must both be pretty old-fashioned.

Err...George Pataki, Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan, Lisa Murkowski, Mark Kirk, Carlos Curbelo, Bruce Poliquin, Susan Collins...even within Washington you have Steve Litzow, Andy Hill, Rob McKenna, Kim Wyman, maybe Dino Rossi.

Those people are all clueless and terrible.  Get a grip.  Suffice it to say that I will not be recruiting you for advice on how to vote for Washington State Treasurer.

Well, obviously a socialist like yourself (green party, whatever, it's basically the same) thinks Hillary Clinton or similar is "moderate", but that's not reality. That being said, neither candidate is likely to agree with you on anything, so just leave that part of the ballot blank.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on August 12, 2016, 04:09:25 AM
Which of the Treasurer candidates is more moderate?

I don't know what kind of moderate identifies with the Republican party these days.  They must both be pretty old-fashioned.

For YOU (essentially - a socialist) - may be. For me - Steve Litzov is patented moderate. Hill - generally too. And some others. And this is  a Washington state only. I can give dozens of names of Republican elected officials (in addition to those already mentioned here) who absolutely deserve this title. There are even few who may be called "liberals". Usually - a moderate liberal type, but - still...

And though large part of about 51% of voters, who voted for Democratic candidates in Treasurer race, will sit November Treasurer election out, many - will not (and most likely will vote for more moderate of 2 Republicans). So - the question is both legitimate and practically useful from electoral point of view.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on August 12, 2016, 06:02:52 PM
For such a Democratic state at the Presidential and congressional levels, why are Republicans so close to taking full control of the legislature? Compared to Oregon, Washington looks like a toss-up between the two parties -here's the breakdown as of August this year:

WA Senate

Democrats: 24
Republicans: 25

WA House

Democrats: 50
Republicans: 48

https://ballotpedia.org/Washington_State_Legislature

OR Senate

Democrats: 18
Republicans: 12

OR House

Democrats: 35
Republicans: 25

https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_State_Legislature


The Oregon legislature is currently a mild Democratic gerrymander, whereas Washington draws it's maps with a bi-partisan commission that tends to benefit Republicans. And while Republicans are able to compete in blue territory (Bellevue, Tacoma suburbs, ect.), Democrats don't hold a single seat that Romney won.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ebowed on August 12, 2016, 07:03:52 PM
Well, obviously a socialist like yourself (green party, whatever, it's basically the same) thinks Hillary Clinton or similar is "moderate", but that's not reality.

I'm enjoying the resurgence in 'socialist' being used as an epithet!  Not sure what the relevance of Hillary Clinton is here, not sure if she's a "moderate" but she's certainly the only sane choice in the presidential election.  Is moderation a compromise between sheer utter insanity and being generally stable?  And which treasurer candidate has shown more of a willingness to compromise in the direction of competence?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on August 13, 2016, 08:07:23 AM
And which treasurer candidate has shown more of a willingness to compromise in the direction of competence?

That's exactly what we asked YOU, local denizen, who must know better..


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 13, 2016, 01:19:25 PM
There isn't much difference between Waite and Davidson. Both are anti-income tax, anti-deficit spending. The main difference is that one's a politician and one's a Wall Street financial management guy.

Davidson, the politician, has most of the big endorsements (Wyman, Reed, other county treasurers from both parties). Waite is backed by McKenna and some Republican state senators.

If I had to pick one, Davidson is probably slightly more likely to play nice with the establishment whereas Waite might be more hardline.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on August 13, 2016, 01:33:53 PM
^ Thanks a lot! This IS what i call an information))))


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ebowed on August 15, 2016, 05:19:48 PM
There isn't much difference between Waite and Davidson. Both are anti-income tax, anti-deficit spending. The main difference is that one's a politician and one's a Wall Street financial management guy.

Davidson, the politician, has most of the big endorsements (Wyman, Reed, other county treasurers from both parties). Waite is backed by McKenna and some Republican state senators.

If I had to pick one, Davidson is probably slightly more likely to play nice with the establishment whereas Waite might be more hardline.

Thanks for the info.  I might leave that race blank. :/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on August 15, 2016, 06:02:40 PM
Who do we think replaces Inslee in 2020?

Bob Ferguson and Dow Constantine are generally considered to be the frontrunners.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 15, 2016, 06:35:23 PM
Who do we think replaces Inslee in 2020?

Bob Ferguson and Dow Constantine are generally considered to be the frontrunners.

I can't imagine it's anyone other than these two. King County CE is the most high-profile non-statewide office and a lot of candidates (Gregoire, McKenna) have come from the AG'e office. I have to imagine Constantine has the advantage and has put in his dues, personally. I suspect BOTH will eventually be Governor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Kingpoleon on August 15, 2016, 06:48:20 PM
There isn't much difference between Waite and Davidson. Both are anti-income tax, anti-deficit spending. The main difference is that one's a politician and one's a Wall Street financial management guy.

Davidson, the politician, has most of the big endorsements (Wyman, Reed, other county treasurers from both parties). Waite is backed by McKenna and some Republican state senators.

If I had to pick one, Davidson is probably slightly more likely to play nice with the establishment whereas Waite might be more hardline.

If Waite is more hardline, why'd McKenna endorse him?

It seems strange that McKenna and Wyman split endorsements. I'd probably support Davidson, though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 15, 2016, 08:38:22 PM
There isn't much difference between Waite and Davidson. Both are anti-income tax, anti-deficit spending. The main difference is that one's a politician and one's a Wall Street financial management guy.

Davidson, the politician, has most of the big endorsements (Wyman, Reed, other county treasurers from both parties). Waite is backed by McKenna and some Republican state senators.

If I had to pick one, Davidson is probably slightly more likely to play nice with the establishment whereas Waite might be more hardline.

If Waite is more hardline, why'd McKenna endorse him?

It seems strange that McKenna and Wyman split endorsements. I'd probably support Davidson, though.

I never, ever leave a race blank, so I'd probably support Davidson for this reason, too.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 15, 2016, 10:11:19 PM
There isn't much difference between Waite and Davidson. Both are anti-income tax, anti-deficit spending. The main difference is that one's a politician and one's a Wall Street financial management guy.

Davidson, the politician, has most of the big endorsements (Wyman, Reed, other county treasurers from both parties). Waite is backed by McKenna and some Republican state senators.

If I had to pick one, Davidson is probably slightly more likely to play nice with the establishment whereas Waite might be more hardline.

If Waite is more hardline, why'd McKenna endorse him?

Pretty sure Reed and Wyman are more moderate than McKenna, who sued Obama over the mandate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 16, 2016, 07:51:34 PM
WA certified results: http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/default.htm


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on August 16, 2016, 09:45:24 PM
Bill Bryant will not vote for Trump in November

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2016/aug/15/bryant-breaks-silence-says-he-wont-vote-for-trump/ (http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2016/aug/15/bryant-breaks-silence-says-he-wont-vote-for-trump/)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 17, 2016, 05:19:27 AM
Some notes on competitive races:

LD 30 (South King County, Federal Way + parts of Auburn):
Mike Pellicciotti (D) leads incumbent Rep Linda Kochmar (R) 52.3% - 47.7%. (yikes...)
Kristine Reeves (D) leads incumbent Rep Teri Hickel (R) 50.16% - 49.84%.

LD 5 (Sammamish ($$$) and other $$ - $$$ exurbs bleeding into the Cascades):
Rep Chad Magendanz (R) challenges incumbent Senator Mark Mullett (D), but trails 50.69% - 49.31%.
Incumbent Rep Jay Rodne (R) leads Jason Ritchie (D), who lost in WA-8 in 2014, 54.4% - 45.6%.
Vacated rep seat by Magendanz is being fought by Darcy Burner (D), ran for WA-8 in 06 and 08 and Paul Graves (R). The two way D vote is 53.72% - 46.28% (Hello Rep Burner).
This district is going to see one of the biggest swings away from Romney in WA and if Rs are going to be pulled down anywhere, its here.

LD 10: Whidbey Island + some farms
Incumbent Senator Barbara Bailey (R) leads 51.48% - 48.52% the two-way D vote. I have no idea if Angela Homola (D) is a good candidate, but this will be close.

LD 26: Gig Harbor and parts of the Kitsap Peninsula
Larry Seaquist (D) might just make a comeback here, he was defeated in 2014 in the other House position. The two-way R vote narrowly beats out the D vote: 50.29% (R) - 49.71% (D).

LD 28: Tacoma suburb Lakewood + JBLM + some seriously downscale exurbia
A competitive district that I believe Obama has won twice...
Incumbent senator Steve O'Ban (R) leads Marisa Peloquin (D) 53.62% - 46.38%.
Incumbent Rep Dick Muri (R) leads Mari Leavitt (D) 52.88% - 47.22%.
Incumbent Rep Christine Kilduff (D) leads 50.85% - 45.88% (R) - 3.28% (L)

LD 17: Outer parts of Vancouver and suburban Clark County
Senator Don Benton is retiring and Lynda Wilson (R) and Tim Probst (D), both former or current Reps from the 17th are vying for the spot. It'll be very close. 50.11% (R) - 49.89% (D). (A must win for Ds if they want to take back the senate).
In the race to replace Wilson, Sam Kim (D) and Vicki Kraft (R) lead a very split field. 51.86% (D) - 48.14% (R).

LD 41: Mercer Island + Bellevue
The ultimate must win for Ds and a district that will be very inhospitable to Trump. The combined D vote in the house was ~65%. It's going to be hard for Incumbent senator Steve Litzow (R) to win.
Lisa Wellman (D) leads Litzow 48.79% - 47.29% - 3.92% (L).

Finally, guaranteed R pickup in the House from LD 31 (the last rural farming parts of king/pierce), where Christopher Hurst is retiring.
JD Rossetti (D), appointed to LD 19 (Southwest WA + Coast) did not make it through a very crowded primary. Ds are still safe here, getting ~56% of the vote.
Guy Palumbo (D) upset Rep Luis Moscoso (D) in the race for the senate seat in LD 1. Safe D though, 60% D - 40% R in the primary.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 17, 2016, 07:07:12 AM
Unfortunately I'm on a dumb Linux computer so I can't properly make maps, but I'm processing the final precinct results and have every county but King (will have today) and Wahkiakum (idk they're terrible).

I combined party vote for U.S. Senate and Governor and lumped obvious minor-party candidates with who they'd likely flow to (so the socialist candidate goes to the Ds).

U.S. Senate
The overall U.S. Senate result is 59.49% D, 36.13% R (D+23.36%).

Ds win all the Obama counties plus Whitman (53-41), Wahkiakum (52-43), Spokane (51-43), Walla Walla (49-45), Okanogan (48-46), Skamania (48-47), and Asotin (48-47).  

Murray has long had special appeal to working-class voters outside the Metro, but her results here are a little weird.  The Skamania result is weak, and neighboring Klickitat voted R (46-49) despite being an Obama 2008 county.  This is a strange result, especially while Asotin votes D and Pend Oreille is less Republican (45-47).  Both those counties are even more conservative and working-class than Klickitat, and it's been much longer since either voted D.  I'm not going to overthink this, since Inslee's performance in Klickitat and Skamania is more normal.

Beyond that, the biggest news is that the GOP is going for a modern record low in King County, which is 73-24 D in final returns.

As in the Presidential Preference Primary, the most GOP county is again Lincoln (35-59)...but not a single R>60 county.  (And the only other D<40 counties were Adams, Douglas, Grant, Lewis, and Stevens.)

Outside of King, top Democratic cities are Port Townsend (85-11), Langley (85-12), Mabton (84-13), and Bainbridge Island (81-17).  Port Townsend even has a 3.8% Republican precinct.

Governor
The overall Governor result is 55.31% D, 42.75% R (D+12.56%).

Inslee took all of Obama's 2012 counties, minus Cowlitz (47-50) and a really embarrassing showing in Mason (46-52).  The strong margins for Democrats this year didn't come from working-class white counties.

Inslee's margin was driven by a huge victory in King, 69-29.  This isn't far from Obama's margins, and is a crazy high number for a primary.  King County just slaughtered statewide Republicans this year.

Again, our most GOP county is Lincoln (27-71).

Our most Democratic cities outside of King are basically the same: Langley (85-15), Port Townsend (84-15), Mabton (84-16), Bainbridge Island (79-20), and Wapato (78-20).

A pretty telling result for the state of the GOP in educated suburbs: the Democrats lead in the GOP-leaning towns of Camas (51-47), Ridgefield (49-49), and Woodway (51-48).  All three voted for Romney last time.  There is some chance the Democrats will even lead this race in Medina when the abstract comes out tonight.  At minimum, it will be close.  My guess is this is more about the toxicity of the GOP national brand in these areas than it is about Inslee.

[interesting blip: the City of Walla Walla swung hard Dem this year, voting 57-37 D for Senate and 50-48 D for Governor.  This is weird, since I believe it's a Romney and McCain town.  Maybe primary turnout dynamics?  Seems like an area where the general-only voters might be more R.]

Attorney General
Just think it's funny that the Libertarian candidate managed to pull 49.81% in Stevens County.

While it's not obvious in King County (83-17), I get the impression that Ferguson may have irritated some rural hippies?  It's a small number of votes, but he was actually the lowest-performing Democrat in and around Index, the super-liberal area of Stevens Pass.

Unsurprisingly, the only non-tiny place the Libertarian won was Lynden (48-52).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 17, 2016, 09:25:44 AM
Unfortunately I'm on a dumb Linux computer so I can't properly make maps, but I'm processing the final precinct results and have every county but King (will have today) and Wahkiakum (idk they're terrible).

Don't worry; I'm already on it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 17, 2016, 10:41:58 AM
Some notes on competitive races:

LD 30 (South King County, Federal Way + parts of Auburn):
Mike Pellicciotti (D) leads incumbent Rep Linda Kochmar (R) 52.3% - 47.7%. (yikes...)
Kristine Reeves (D) leads incumbent Rep Teri Hickel (R) 50.16% - 49.84%.

LD 5 (Sammamish ($$$) and other $$ - $$$ exurbs bleeding into the Cascades):
Rep Chad Magendanz (R) challenges incumbent Senator Mark Mullett (D), but trails 50.69% - 49.31%.
Incumbent Rep Jay Rodne (R) leads Jason Ritchie (D), who lost in WA-8 in 2014, 54.4% - 45.6%.
Vacated rep seat by Magendanz is being fought by Darcy Burner (D), ran for WA-8 in 06 and 08 and Paul Graves (R). The two way D vote is 53.72% - 46.28% (Hello Rep Burner).
This district is going to see one of the biggest swings away from Romney in WA and if Rs are going to be pulled down anywhere, its here.

LD 10: Whidbey Island + some farms
Incumbent Senator Barbara Bailey (R) leads 51.48% - 48.52% the two-way D vote. I have no idea if Angela Homola (D) is a good candidate, but this will be close.

LD 26: Gig Harbor and parts of the Kitsap Peninsula
Larry Seaquist (D) might just make a comeback here, he was defeated in 2014 in the other House position. The two-way R vote narrowly beats out the D vote: 50.29% (R) - 49.71% (D).

LD 28: Tacoma suburb Lakewood + JBLM + some seriously downscale exurbia
A competitive district that I believe Obama has won twice...
Incumbent senator Steve O'Ban (R) leads Marisa Peloquin (D) 53.62% - 46.38%.
Incumbent Rep Dick Muri (R) leads Mari Leavitt (D) 52.88% - 47.22%.
Incumbent Rep Christine Kilduff (D) leads 50.85% - 45.88% (R) - 3.28% (L)

LD 17: Outer parts of Vancouver and suburban Clark County
Senator Don Benton is retiring and Lynda Wilson (R) and Tim Probst (D), both former or current Reps from the 17th are vying for the spot. It'll be very close. 50.11% (R) - 49.89% (D). (A must win for Ds if they want to take back the senate).
In the race to replace Wilson, Sam Kim (D) and Vicki Kraft (R) lead a very split field. 51.86% (D) - 48.14% (R).

LD 41: Mercer Island + Bellevue
The ultimate must win for Ds and a district that will be very inhospitable to Trump. The combined D vote in the house was ~65%. It's going to be hard for Incumbent senator Steve Litzow (R) to win.
Lisa Wellman (D) leads Litzow 48.79% - 47.29% - 3.92% (L).

Finally, guaranteed R pickup in the House from LD 31 (the last rural farming parts of king/pierce), where Christopher Hurst is retiring.
JD Rossetti (D), appointed to LD 19 (Southwest WA + Coast) did not make it through a very crowded primary. Ds are still safe here, getting ~56% of the vote.
Guy Palumbo (D) upset Rep Luis Moscoso (D) in the race for the senate seat in LD 1. Safe D though, 60% D - 40% R in the primary.

I think the Ds take Benton and Litzow's seats, Bailey narrowly hangs on and Mullet winds up winning narrowly.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 18, 2016, 04:59:29 AM
Unfortunately I'm on a dumb Linux computer so I can't properly make maps, but I'm processing the final precinct results and have every county but King (will have today) and Wahkiakum (idk they're terrible).

Don't worry; I'm already on it.

<3!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 18, 2016, 10:15:42 PM
First few maps--

WA-01:
()

WA-03:
()

WA-04 (Blue is Newhouse, Green is Didier):
()

WA-05:
()

WA-07 (Red is Jayapal, Blue is Keller, Green is Walkinshaw, Yellow is McDermott):
()

WA-08 (Red is Ventrella, Green is Ramos, Yellow is Skold):
()

WA-08, Dems only (Red is Ventrella, Green is Ramos, Yellow is Skold):
()

WA-10:
()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 19, 2016, 03:44:37 PM
US Senator (Green is Makus, Orange is Nazarino, Purple is Luke):
() (https://i1.imgpile.com/2016/08/19/75a9a86be97cd56fe7f1b28f332ecafa.png)

Governor:
() (https://i2.imgpile.com/2016/08/19/6d2d8d4ce7b4dd6eeb80b1ba82b94210.png)

Lt. Governor (Blue is McClendon, Red is Habib, Green is Fraser, Yellow is Hobbs, Orange is Yin, Purple is Wallace; Figueroa, Penor, and Addis also show up as alt-colors in a couple precincts):
() (https://i1.imgpile.com/2016/08/19/7e102eae1f28ea8846c63d9ef72b9c2b.png)

Secretary of State:
() (https://i2.imgpile.com/2016/08/19/b59c8349497d5d94bcc1e894d800a061.png)

State Treasurer (Blue is Davidson, Red is Liias, Green is Waite, Yellow is Comerford, Orange is Fisken):
() (https://i2.imgpile.com/2016/08/19/f3151c7f914352482c0feead133fb4d5.png)

State Auditor (Blue is Miloscia, Red is McCarthy, Green is Sprung):
() (https://i1.imgpile.com/2016/08/19/738b6c8355d45ac5907cb29d05b01d19.png)

Average Total D vs. Average Total R:
() (https://i2.imgpile.com/2016/08/19/8e79baffb165c4e2cfb0dfa8ef7bba92.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 19, 2016, 10:18:10 PM
Beautiful as always, RI.

lol @ Gigi Ferguson handily winning the Evergreen campus.  I wonder what that's about?  It's too many votes to just be random chance, and Ferguson even mentioned "family values" in her voters' statement.   Plus I thought Heck was an alum.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 20, 2016, 12:12:13 AM
lol @ Gigi Ferguson handily winning the Evergreen campus.  I wonder what that's about?  It's too many votes to just be random chance, and Ferguson even mentioned "family values" in her voters' statement.   Plus I thought Heck was an alum.

Ferguson's also an Evergreen alum. Her voter statement is very activist-y and progressive; I'm not seeing any mention of "family values" specifically. Plus she's a black woman running against three white men.

Funnily enough, Wyman only got 1.86% at Evergreen which is the worst of any of the major GOP candidates despite her being by far the strongest of any GOP candidate in Thurston County.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 20, 2016, 12:50:05 AM
lol @ Gigi Ferguson handily winning the Evergreen campus.  I wonder what that's about?  It's too many votes to just be random chance, and Ferguson even mentioned "family values" in her voters' statement.   Plus I thought Heck was an alum.

Ferguson's also an Evergreen alum. Her voter statement is very activist-y and progressive; I'm not seeing any mention of "family values" specifically. Plus she's a black woman running against three white men.

Funnily enough, Wyman only got 1.86% at Evergreen which is the worst of any of the major GOP candidates despite her being by far the strongest of any GOP candidate in Thurston County.

Ahh, duh, I was looking at her 2014 pamphlet.  Yeah, her 2016 statement is quite the lefty check-list.

It looks like the Republican candidate for CPL actually fell under 10% In Seattle: D 88.20%, R 9.34%, L 2.46%.  That may be a first for a reasonably credible Republican candidate?  Considering he got 37.95% statewide, it's also a pretty good indicator that Trump may fall below that threshold too.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 22, 2016, 04:32:36 PM
A few quickies (colors are same as above unless mentioned otherwise):

CPL (Red is Franz, Green is Upthegrove, Yellow is Verner)
() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_22_08_16_4_25_39.png)

CPL, D only (Orange is Porterfield, Purple is Stillings)
() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_22_08_16_4_26_18.png)

Auditor, D only (Red is McCarthy, Green is Sprung)
() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_22_08_16_4_27_00.png)

Insurance Comm
() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_22_08_16_4_27_35.png)

Lt. Gov, D only
() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_22_08_16_4_28_21.png)

Treasurer, D only
() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_22_08_16_4_29_00.png)

WA-08, D only
() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_22_08_16_4_29_52.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on August 22, 2016, 05:18:55 PM
That McCarthy/Sprung division in King County is kind of awesome.  I haven't seen something quite like that before.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Anna Komnene on September 26, 2016, 12:47:08 PM
Not complaining but curious.  How come Murray and Cantwell are so safe (apart from 2010), when it seems as though holding the governor's office has been such a struggle for Gregoire and Inslee?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Heisenberg on September 26, 2016, 02:11:15 PM
Not complaining but curious.  How come Murray and Cantwell are so safe (apart from 2010), when it seems as though holding the governor's office has been such a struggle for Gregoire and Inslee?
First, federal races are different from governor races. Also, Republicans did target Murray in 2010, but came short. Remember how Cantwell only barely won in 2000, then had a strong 2006 wave to help boost her margin. In 2012 she significantly underperformed McKenna, who barely lost even as Obama won big. If Clinton wins the election, and is unpopular, a Cantwell vs McKenna race (if they can get him to run) is a toss up, I think.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Anna Komnene on September 26, 2016, 04:51:53 PM
Not complaining but curious.  How come Murray and Cantwell are so safe (apart from 2010), when it seems as though holding the governor's office has been such a struggle for Gregoire and Inslee?
First, federal races are different from governor races. Also, Republicans did target Murray in 2010, but came short. Remember how Cantwell only barely won in 2000, then had a strong 2006 wave to help boost her margin. In 2012 she significantly underperformed McKenna, who barely lost even as Obama won big. If Clinton wins the election, and is unpopular, a Cantwell vs McKenna race (if they can get him to run) is a toss up, I think.

I understand that they are different, but my question was why are they in Washington's context?

As for 2012, do you mean polling?  Because Cantwell won her 2012 race by 20 points.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on September 26, 2016, 05:47:01 PM
Not complaining but curious.  How come Murray and Cantwell are so safe (apart from 2010), when it seems as though holding the governor's office has been such a struggle for Gregoire and Inslee?
First, federal races are different from governor races. Also, Republicans did target Murray in 2010, but came short. Remember how Cantwell only barely won in 2000, then had a strong 2006 wave to help boost her margin. In 2012 she significantly underperformed McKenna, who barely lost even as Obama won big. If Clinton wins the election, and is unpopular, a Cantwell vs McKenna race (if they can get him to run) is a toss up, I think.
[/b]

lol no


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Heisenberg on September 26, 2016, 05:55:28 PM
Not complaining but curious.  How come Murray and Cantwell are so safe (apart from 2010), when it seems as though holding the governor's office has been such a struggle for Gregoire and Inslee?
First, federal races are different from governor races. Also, Republicans did target Murray in 2010, but came short. Remember how Cantwell only barely won in 2000, then had a strong 2006 wave to help boost her margin. In 2012 she significantly underperformed McKenna, who barely lost even as Obama won big. If Clinton wins the election, and is unpopular, a Cantwell vs McKenna race (if they can get him to run) is a toss up, I think.

lol no
In a D wave year, McKenna gets destroyed.
In a neutral year, he still loses, but only by single digits.
If 2018 is a 2010/2014-type wave, I think he has at least a 45% chance of winning, and at the very least, he will force Democrats to work hard to defend the seat. Baumgartner got less than 40% of the vote in 2012, and Romney barely got a little over 41%. Rob McKenna, on the other hand, got about 48.5% of the vote, and the national environment was against him. That is quite a lot of crossover appeal.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on September 26, 2016, 11:36:24 PM
Gubernatorial "debate" was about what I expected.  I wonder how many people actually watched this.

I find both candidates to be completely uninspiring but will end up voting for Inslee.

Candidates not really answering the questions.

For goodness sakes though Bryant, Inslee is not in support of an income tax.  Enough is enough.

Also, lol at Bryant trying to have a big moment by getting Inslee to commit to not raising taxes and getting cut-off by the moderator (since you aren't allowed to directly address your opponent).



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on September 27, 2016, 12:59:10 PM
Bryant is the worst GOP nom since that loon who ran against Locke in the 1990s. Not that he isn't competent or moderate, but who gets excited about some rando Port Commissioner? Keep in mind the port isn't exactly held in high esteem with some shady dealings. McKenna and even Rossi were vastly superior candidates. Hell, I'd vote McKenna again over Inslee


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on September 27, 2016, 01:22:38 PM
Not complaining but curious.  How come Murray and Cantwell are so safe (apart from 2010), when it seems as though holding the governor's office has been such a struggle for Gregoire and Inslee?
First, federal races are different from governor races. Also, Republicans did target Murray in 2010, but came short. Remember how Cantwell only barely won in 2000, then had a strong 2006 wave to help boost her margin. In 2012 she significantly underperformed McKenna, who barely lost even as Obama won big. If Clinton wins the election, and is unpopular, a Cantwell vs McKenna race (if they can get him to run) is a toss up, I think.

Huh? Cantwell got over 60% of the vote. In addition, McKenna, as a sitting state-wide office holder couldn't win against a weaker candidate at the state-level. What makes you think he can do it after being out of office for 6 years, at the federal level? Even if 2018 has a similar environment to 2010, why would the race be anything but a relatively narrow Cantwell win (Murray won by 4.7%)? WA has only gotten more D since then (something to do with Seattle adding 14-15k people a year and the Kingco suburbs completing their political transformation).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on September 27, 2016, 02:06:17 PM
Not complaining but curious.  How come Murray and Cantwell are so safe (apart from 2010), when it seems as though holding the governor's office has been such a struggle for Gregoire and Inslee?
First, federal races are different from governor races. Also, Republicans did target Murray in 2010, but came short. Remember how Cantwell only barely won in 2000, then had a strong 2006 wave to help boost her margin. In 2012 she significantly underperformed McKenna, who barely lost even as Obama won big. If Clinton wins the election, and is unpopular, a Cantwell vs McKenna race (if they can get him to run) is a toss up, I think.

Huh? Cantwell got over 60% of the vote. In addition, McKenna, as a sitting state-wide office holder couldn't win against a weaker candidate at the state-level. What makes you think he can do it after being out of office for 6 years, at the federal level? Even if 2018 has a similar environment to 2010, why would the race be anything but a relatively narrow Cantwell win (Murray won by 4.7%)? WA has only gotten more D since then (something to do with Seattle adding 14-15k people a year and the Kingco suburbs completing their political transformation).

On that note, it'll be really interesting to see legislative maps next decade


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on September 27, 2016, 10:50:42 PM
Since Eastern Washington population growth (except for maybe Tri-Cities) doesn't appear to be especially strong I would expect more influence in the area around Seattle. If the Census Bureau is to be believed Seattle will have gained enough people to have another legislative district inside of it.

I am more interested in how the Congressional Lines will be drawn.  My guess is that Washington won't gain another seat in 2020 - though you never know - so only minor adjustments will have to be made to current boundaries.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on September 28, 2016, 12:35:31 AM
Since Eastern Washington population growth (except for maybe Tri-Cities) doesn't appear to be especially strong I would expect more influence in the area around Seattle. If the Census Bureau is to be believed Seattle will have gained enough people to have another legislative district inside of it.

I am more interested in how the Congressional Lines will be drawn.  My guess is that Washington won't gain another seat in 2020 - though you never know - so only minor adjustments will have to be made to current boundaries.

Next decade's map will likely be 99% the same as this decades. The bipartisan commission is basically rigged to favor incumbent protection maps. The 1st might get shored up a little, and the 8th might have to get even more twisted to keep Reichert safe.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on September 28, 2016, 01:16:05 AM
The 7th will have to shrink considerably. Probably means it'll lose it's appendage in Snohomish County.
The 2nd, 5th, 6th and 10th will all probably have to expand, uncertain about the 4th. The 1, 7, 8, 9 for sure will shrink, perhaps the 3rd too.

What I really wonder about is if the commission will continue the "minority-majority" and what that means for the 7th and it's relationship for central and southeastern Seattle.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on September 28, 2016, 06:50:40 AM
The legislative map could be pretty crazy, though.  There are so many Seattle-area LDs that are growing above state average, and not many growing far enough below state average to "absorb" those new registrants from neighboring high-growth areas.  There could be some fun, weird shifting.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on September 28, 2016, 11:53:10 AM
The legislative map could be pretty crazy, though.  There are so many Seattle-area LDs that are growing above state average, and not many growing far enough below state average to "absorb" those new registrants from neighboring high-growth areas.  There could be some fun, weird shifting.

I think many of the non-Tri Cities EWA districts get considerably larger, particularly the ones in the north and southeast of the state. The border counties are flat if not shrinking. It'll be really interesting to see the effects in the Vancouver area, too, and if a district that could elect Latinos emerges in Yakima rather than a split designed to elect Republicans.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on September 28, 2016, 11:42:42 PM
Since Eastern Washington population growth (except for maybe Tri-Cities) doesn't appear to be especially strong I would expect more influence in the area around Seattle. If the Census Bureau is to be believed Seattle will have gained enough people to have another legislative district inside of it.

I am more interested in how the Congressional Lines will be drawn.  My guess is that Washington won't gain another seat in 2020 - though you never know - so only minor adjustments will have to be made to current boundaries.

Next decade's map will likely be 99% the same as this decades. The bipartisan commission is basically rigged to favor incumbent protection maps. The 1st might get shored up a little, and the 8th might have to get even more twisted to keep Reichert safe.

Reichert and the two independents combined for over 60% of the vote in the jungle primary this year. The district looks fine for now. Also Reichert might run statewide at some point. Cantwell vs. Reichert would be a barn-burner under a Hillary Presidency if he can be coaxed in.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on September 29, 2016, 12:03:16 AM
Since Eastern Washington population growth (except for maybe Tri-Cities) doesn't appear to be especially strong I would expect more influence in the area around Seattle. If the Census Bureau is to be believed Seattle will have gained enough people to have another legislative district inside of it.

I am more interested in how the Congressional Lines will be drawn.  My guess is that Washington won't gain another seat in 2020 - though you never know - so only minor adjustments will have to be made to current boundaries.

Next decade's map will likely be 99% the same as this decades. The bipartisan commission is basically rigged to favor incumbent protection maps. The 1st might get shored up a little, and the 8th might have to get even more twisted to keep Reichert safe.

Reichert and the two independents combined for over 60% of the vote in the jungle primary this year. The district looks fine for now. Also Reichert might run statewide at some point. Cantwell vs. Reichert would be a barn-burner under a Hillary Presidency if he can be coaxed in.


Probably - no. Reichert will, of course, overperform, but Washington (Seattle and it's suburbs especially) became too instinctively Democratic. If McKenna couldn't win in 2012, and Wyman and Litzov (both - more moderate then Reichert, and pro-choice to boot) are both very seriously endangered this year -  then i have serious doubts about him.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on September 29, 2016, 12:17:00 AM
Since Eastern Washington population growth (except for maybe Tri-Cities) doesn't appear to be especially strong I would expect more influence in the area around Seattle. If the Census Bureau is to be believed Seattle will have gained enough people to have another legislative district inside of it.

I am more interested in how the Congressional Lines will be drawn.  My guess is that Washington won't gain another seat in 2020 - though you never know - so only minor adjustments will have to be made to current boundaries.

Next decade's map will likely be 99% the same as this decades. The bipartisan commission is basically rigged to favor incumbent protection maps. The 1st might get shored up a little, and the 8th might have to get even more twisted to keep Reichert safe.

Reichert and the two independents combined for over 60% of the vote in the jungle primary this year. The district looks fine for now. Also Reichert might run statewide at some point. Cantwell vs. Reichert would be a barn-burner under a Hillary Presidency if he can be coaxed in.


Probably - no. Reichert will, of course, overperform, but Washington (Seattle and it's suburbs especially) became too instinctively Democratic. If McKenna couldn't win in 2012, and Wyman and Litzov (both - more moderate then Reichert, and pro-choice to boot) are both very seriously endangered this year -  then i have serious doubts about him.

Wyman should survive given her first round victory, although anything's possible.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on September 29, 2016, 12:22:24 AM
Since Eastern Washington population growth (except for maybe Tri-Cities) doesn't appear to be especially strong I would expect more influence in the area around Seattle. If the Census Bureau is to be believed Seattle will have gained enough people to have another legislative district inside of it.

I am more interested in how the Congressional Lines will be drawn.  My guess is that Washington won't gain another seat in 2020 - though you never know - so only minor adjustments will have to be made to current boundaries.

Next decade's map will likely be 99% the same as this decades. The bipartisan commission is basically rigged to favor incumbent protection maps. The 1st might get shored up a little, and the 8th might have to get even more twisted to keep Reichert safe.

Reichert and the two independents combined for over 60% of the vote in the jungle primary this year. The district looks fine for now. Also Reichert might run statewide at some point. Cantwell vs. Reichert would be a barn-burner under a Hillary Presidency if he can be coaxed in.


Probably - no. Reichert will, of course, overperform, but Washington (Seattle and it's suburbs especially) became too instinctively Democratic. If McKenna couldn't win in 2012, and Wyman and Litzov (both - more moderate then Reichert, and pro-choice to boot) are both very seriously endangered this year -  then i have serious doubts about him.

Wyman should survive given her first round victory, although anything's possible.

May be. And even Litzov - can. But both are clearly living on borrowed time, and even if they win - i doubt that they will run in 2020. Hague (another moderate) was defeated for King county council recently quite decisively...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on September 29, 2016, 11:43:20 AM
Since Eastern Washington population growth (except for maybe Tri-Cities) doesn't appear to be especially strong I would expect more influence in the area around Seattle. If the Census Bureau is to be believed Seattle will have gained enough people to have another legislative district inside of it.

I am more interested in how the Congressional Lines will be drawn.  My guess is that Washington won't gain another seat in 2020 - though you never know - so only minor adjustments will have to be made to current boundaries.

Next decade's map will likely be 99% the same as this decades. The bipartisan commission is basically rigged to favor incumbent protection maps. The 1st might get shored up a little, and the 8th might have to get even more twisted to keep Reichert safe.

Reichert and the two independents combined for over 60% of the vote in the jungle primary this year. The district looks fine for now. Also Reichert might run statewide at some point. Cantwell vs. Reichert would be a barn-burner under a Hillary Presidency if he can be coaxed in.


Probably - no. Reichert will, of course, overperform, but Washington (Seattle and it's suburbs especially) became too instinctively Democratic. If McKenna couldn't win in 2012, and Wyman and Litzov (both - more moderate then Reichert, and pro-choice to boot) are both very seriously endangered this year -  then i have serious doubts about him.

Wyman should survive given her first round victory, although anything's possible.

May be. And even Litzov - can. But both are clearly living on borrowed time, and even if they win - i doubt that they will run in 2020. Hague (another moderate) was defeated for King county council recently quite decisively...

Unfortunately I think Litzow goes down this year. I do think Wyman holds on, however.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on September 29, 2016, 03:08:36 PM
Since Eastern Washington population growth (except for maybe Tri-Cities) doesn't appear to be especially strong I would expect more influence in the area around Seattle. If the Census Bureau is to be believed Seattle will have gained enough people to have another legislative district inside of it.

I am more interested in how the Congressional Lines will be drawn.  My guess is that Washington won't gain another seat in 2020 - though you never know - so only minor adjustments will have to be made to current boundaries.

Next decade's map will likely be 99% the same as this decades. The bipartisan commission is basically rigged to favor incumbent protection maps. The 1st might get shored up a little, and the 8th might have to get even more twisted to keep Reichert safe.

Reichert and the two independents combined for over 60% of the vote in the jungle primary this year. The district looks fine for now. Also Reichert might run statewide at some point. Cantwell vs. Reichert would be a barn-burner under a Hillary Presidency if he can be coaxed in.


Probably - no. Reichert will, of course, overperform, but Washington (Seattle and it's suburbs especially) became too instinctively Democratic. If McKenna couldn't win in 2012, and Wyman and Litzov (both - more moderate then Reichert, and pro-choice to boot) are both very seriously endangered this year -  then i have serious doubts about him.

Wyman should survive given her first round victory, although anything's possible.

May be. And even Litzov - can. But both are clearly living on borrowed time, and even if they win - i doubt that they will run in 2020. Hague (another moderate) was defeated for King county council recently quite decisively...

Unfortunately I think Litzow goes down this year. I do think Wyman holds on, however.

We will see. Depends both on turnout and whether Litzow will be able to get vast majority of vote, which went for Libertarian candidate in August..


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on October 07, 2016, 10:59:18 PM
Just as a summary - here are the results from KOMO News/Strategies 360 poll that are NOT for the presidential race:

Senate:  Murray 57% - Vance 36% - Undecided 6%
Governor:  Inslee 50% - Bryant 40% - Undecided 8%
Measure 1433 (Increase Min Wage and Sick Leave):  Yes 62% - No 37% - Undecided 2%
Measure 1491 (Gun initiative): Yes 79% - No 17% - Undecided 4%
Measure 732 (Carbon Tax): Yes 42% - No 37% - Undecided 21%  (!!)

Also:

King County Presidential Results:  Clinton 62% - Trump 18% - Johnson 10% - Stein 3% - Undecided 3%




Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ebowed on October 09, 2016, 05:00:07 PM
What is the status of write-ins?  If I write-in Marko Liias for State Treasurer, would that get counted?  (Is there a prominent, capable candidate accepting write-ins for that office?)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 09, 2016, 05:40:31 PM
What is the status of write-ins?  If I write-in Marko Liias for State Treasurer, would that get counted?  (Is there a prominent, capable candidate accepting write-ins for that office?)

It would get tabulated by the automated system, and show up on the election reports, but on a technical level it's a "rejected" write-in.  There's a Bernie guy named Eric Miller running as a Democratic write-in.  That's about all I know.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ebowed on October 09, 2016, 07:06:48 PM
What is the status of write-ins?  If I write-in Marko Liias for State Treasurer, would that get counted?  (Is there a prominent, capable candidate accepting write-ins for that office?)

It would get tabulated by the automated system, and show up on the election reports, but on a technical level it's a "rejected" write-in.  There's a Bernie guy named Eric Miller running as a Democratic write-in.  That's about all I know.

Thanks!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on October 23, 2016, 03:27:13 AM
Voted today!

President/Vice-President: Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine

Senator: Patty Murray
Representative: Derek Kilmer

Governor: Jay Inslee
Lt. Governor: Cyrus Habib
Sec. of State: Tina Podlodowski
Atty. General: Bob Ferguson
Auditor: Pat McCarthy
Treasurer: Duane Davidson
Public Lands Commissioner: Hillary Franz
Superintendent: Chris Reykdal
Insurance Commissioner: Mike Kreidler

State Senator: Kevin Van De Wege
State Rep., Position 1: Mike Chapman
State Rep., Position 2: Steve Tharinger

Supreme Court:
Mary Yu, Barbara Madsen, Charlie Wiggins, Erik Rohrer

Superior Court:
Brian Coughenour, Christopher Melly

I-1433 (Minimum Wage): Yes
I-1464 (Campaign Finance): Yes
I-1491 (Guns): Yes
I-1501 (Senior abuse): No
I-732 (Carbon Tax): Yes
I-735 (Amendment proposal): Yes



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 23, 2016, 12:42:50 PM
Why did you vote no on I-1501?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 23, 2016, 03:10:08 PM

It's basically a move by SEIU to exclude their home caregivers from public information requests that conservatives (the Freedom Foundation) have been using to contact the caregivers and let them know they don't have to be in SEIU.  This would be a fairly arbitrary exemption from public disclosure; others who are paid by the state for professional services are subject to disclosure laws.  It's kind of rare to see the Seattle Times, Stranger and Seattle Weekly all land on the same side of an issue with the same reasoning, but that's why they all endorsed No.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on October 24, 2016, 12:51:32 AM

Bad law disguised as saving grandma from abuse.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: evergreenarbor on October 24, 2016, 11:35:28 AM
My ballot:

I-1433: Yes
I-1464: Yes
I-1491: Yes
I-1501: Yes
I-732: Yes
I-735: Yes

President: Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine
Senate: Patty Murray
US Representative (CD-2): Tyler Vega (write-in; I don't like Larsen but Larsen will win anyway)

Governor: Jay Inslee
Lieutenant Governor: Cyrus Habib
Secretary of State: Tina Podlodowski
Treasurer: Duane Davidson
Auditor: Pat McCarthy
Attorney General: Bob Ferguson
Commissioner of Public Lands: Hillary Franz
Superintendent of Public Instruction: Erin Jones
Insurance Commissioner: Mike Kreidler

State Senator (District 40): Kevin Ranker
State Representatives (District 40): Write-ins (both are running unopposed)

Supreme Court: Yu, Madsen, Wiggins


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 24, 2016, 12:00:42 PM
Most of my ballot:

I-1433: Yes
I-1464: No
I-1491: No
I-1501: Yes
I-732: No
I-735: Yes

US Senator: Chris Vance
US Representative: Joe Pakootas
Governor: Bill Bryant
Lt Governor: Cyrus Habib
Secretary of State: Kim Wyman
Treasurer: Duane Davidson
Auditor: Mark Miloscia
Attorney General: Bob Ferguson
CPL: Steve McLaughlin
SPI: Chris Reykdal
Insurance Comm: Mike Kreidler

State Sen: Write-in
State Rep: Mary Dye

Supreme Court: DeWolf, Madsen, Wiggins
Court of Appeals: Fearing


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on October 24, 2016, 08:02:15 PM
My ballot:

I-1433: Yes
I-1464: Yes
I-1491: No
I-1501: No
I-732: Yes
I-735: Yes

President: Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine
Senate: Patty Murray
US Representative (CD-7): Brady Walkinshaw (I think there is <40% chance he wins, but you never know)

Governor: Jay Inslee
Lieutenant Governor: Cyrus Habib
Secretary of State: Tina Podlodowski
Treasurer: BLANK
Auditor: Pat McCarthy
Attorney General: Bob Ferguson
Commissioner of Public Lands: Hillary Franz
Superintendent of Public Instruction: Chris Reykdal
Insurance Commissioner: Mike Kreidler


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 24, 2016, 08:30:05 PM
If Jayapal and/or Teachout is elected, the dems need to make it clear that they are not welcome due to their socialist views. Don't put them on any committees period and endorse a high profile primary challenger for 2018. Tell primary voters that if they don't vote for this challenger, that they are a highly dangerous traitor to the party and to the country that should go beg the local police to punish them for their actuon


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Shameless Lefty Hack on October 24, 2016, 11:28:02 PM
If Jayapal and/or Teachout is elected, the dems need to make it clear that they are not welcome due to their socialist views. Don't put them on any committees period and endorse a high profile primary challenger for 2018. Tell primary voters that if they don't vote for this challenger, that they are a highly dangerous traitor to the party and to the country that should go beg the local police to punish them for their actuon

and why exactly do you want the Democratic party to deny voters their democratic choice of representative?

Why that sounds positively... communistic


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on October 25, 2016, 11:07:32 AM
If Jayapal and/or Teachout is elected, the dems need to make it clear that they are not welcome due to their socialist views. Don't put them on any committees period and endorse a high profile primary challenger for 2018. Tell primary voters that if they don't vote for this challenger, that they are a highly dangerous traitor to the party and to the country that should go beg the local police to punish them for their actuon


Wulfric, please shut up forever.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: windjammer on October 25, 2016, 04:27:02 PM
Guys by the way, regarding the WA state senate and WA state house, your predictions?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 25, 2016, 04:45:33 PM
Ds hold the House and win back the Senate, though it'll be close. Trump is just too toxic and there really aren't any competitive state-wide races to bring out people to vote.

Here's a good overview from Crosscut on the tossup races. They don't actually give any predictions, but they do identify the competitive districts: http://features.crosscut.com/washington-state-districts-control-olympia-legislature-election-2016 (http://features.crosscut.com/washington-state-districts-control-olympia-legislature-election-2016)

Also: 135k ballots have been returned so far, or 3.8% of registered voters. Any idea why Island County has already a 15.9% return rate?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on October 25, 2016, 07:58:23 PM
Where are they already posting ballot return statistics? King County isn't posting them until tomorrow.

Nevermind: https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: MaxQue on October 25, 2016, 08:00:55 PM
If Jayapal and/or Teachout is elected, the dems need to make it clear that they are not welcome due to their socialist views. Don't put them on any committees period and endorse a high profile primary challenger for 2018. Tell primary voters that if they don't vote for this challenger, that they are a highly dangerous traitor to the party and to the country that should go beg the local police to punish them for their actuon

Well, as Democrats are not fascists, they won't do that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 25, 2016, 08:50:12 PM
Ds hold the House and win back the Senate, though it'll be close. Trump is just too toxic and there really aren't any competitive state-wide races to bring out people to vote.

Here's a good overview from Crosscut on the tossup races. They don't actually give any predictions, but they do identify the competitive districts: http://features.crosscut.com/washington-state-districts-control-olympia-legislature-election-2016 (http://features.crosscut.com/washington-state-districts-control-olympia-legislature-election-2016)

Also: 135k ballots have been returned so far, or 3.8% of registered voters. Any idea why Island County has already a 15.9% return rate?

I'm guessing some variation may relate to when ballots were mailed...but Island mailed on the last possible day.  And of all counties, I can't think of a reason that Island and Skagit would be the top two.

Looking within King County, Seattle is outpacing the county (4.2% vs. 3.8%), with especially strong results in the 43rd LD (5.0%) and the 36th (4.7%).  Maybe some of that is high performance because of the Jayapal/Walkinshaw race in the 7th CD, but CD7 is only at 4.1% overall, and both the 11th LD and 37th LD -- which are in Adam Smith's 9th CD -- are outpacing the 34th LD, which is mostly in the 7th CD.  Also, looking within Seattle, Capitol Hill and similar neighborhoods are going strong.  However, the two weakest neighborhoods -- Lakewood and Seward Park -- are high-turnout areas with nearly no votes cast, which makes me wonder whether postal delivery schedules aren't skewing things.

Basically, there's a TONNNN of noise in this data, but it's consistent with higher Democratic enthusiasm.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on October 25, 2016, 10:08:31 PM
Made a trip into Port Townsend (Jefferson County) today. Still as dark blue as ever from the looks of things. Saw more signs for Hillary Franz than I did Trump.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on October 25, 2016, 10:49:32 PM
Made a trip into Port Townsend (Jefferson County) today. Still as dark blue as ever from the looks of things. Saw more signs for Hillary Franz than I did Trump.

Well, that's good to know - though obviously expected. Jefferson County population growth has been lagging though.  Democratic stronghold, but not increasing its influence statewide.

While I wish Jefferson County were larger, I'm happy to have any county in Washington that votes around 65%ish + for the Democrat.   In 2012, the 6,334 gap for Obama was just about enough to offset victories for Romney in Wahkiakum, Skamania, Klickitat, Columbia, Garfield, Asotin, Whitman, Ferry, and Pend Oreille combined.  The Jefferson + San Juan Obama v. Romney gap was ~10,000 altogether.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 25, 2016, 10:54:09 PM
Here's an interesting pattern in the turnout results so far, for the 25 counties where I have matchbacks:

* 4.4% of voters who didn't vote in the Presidential Primary have returned ballots

* 11.6% of Republican voters from the Primary have returned ballots

* 15.0% (!) of Democratic voters from the Primary have returned ballots

Obviously, that won't hold up, but that's a 64%-36% D turnout split among Presidential Primary voters in the General so far, when the Presidential Primary was only 58%-42% D.  That seems like a significant early enthusiasm gap to me, and it holds up across counties.

Made a trip into Port Townsend (Jefferson County) today. Still as dark blue as ever from the looks of things. Saw more signs for Hillary Franz than I did Trump.

I think there's a distinct possibility Trump may fall under 15% in Port Townsend.  Jefferson County will probably be pretty nasty to him in general.  He's also a bad candidate for Port Ludlow, which is a high-income, educated area (47% with a bachelor's degree and 24% with a graduate degree -- especially impressive when the median age is 66) and a big source of GOP votes in the county.

Beyond Brinnon, I don't think there's a part of Jefferson County that's any good for him.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on October 25, 2016, 11:10:34 PM
I've read in more than a couple places now about this weird "Inslee's first term has been filled with scandal" narrative. 

http://www.seattleweekly.com/news/the-gop-says-inslee-is-a-terrible-governor-so-why-cant-they-beat-him-2/

Quote
From Manweller’s conservative but professional viewpoint, Inslee has had a rough first term. He’s tried and failed, on several occasions, to make headway on his central issue, combating climate change. His Department of Transportation has come under fire for its handling of several Eastside highway projects, the furor over which led to the ouster of his transportation secretary, Lynn Peterson. Education leaders have been frustrated by the state’s slow work on funding the McCleary mandate, while the state’s mental-health system has faced defunding from the federal government due to deficient care at Western State Hospital. In December, it was announced that the Department of Corrections had released thousands of inmates from prison early due to an error in calculating their sentences.

Some of these things seem out of Inslee's control (or at least he shares the blame with the legislature) and I feel like none of them are particularly game changing issues that voters really care deeply about. 



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 26, 2016, 08:25:20 PM
I voted yesterday:

Most of my ballot:

I-1433: Yes
I-1464: Yes
I-1491: Yes
I-1501: No
I-732: Yes
I-735: Yes

US Senator: Patty Murray
US Representative: Brady Walkinshaw (my hardest decision by far)
Governor: Jay Inslee
Lt Governor: Cyrus Habib
Secretary of State: Tina Podlodowski
Treasurer: Duane Davidson (only R)
Auditor: Pat McCarthy
Attorney General: Bob Ferguson
CPL: Hillary Franz
SPI: Chris Reykdal
Insurance Comm: Mike Kreidler

State Rep: Jessyn Farrell and Gerry Pollett

Supreme Court: Yu, Madsen, Wiggins

AND MOST IMPORTANTLY: Yes on Proposition 1 aka ST3.
-----

Also, voting up to 432,735 or 10.2%, but I don't think King County numbers updated?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on October 26, 2016, 09:10:59 PM
I voted yesterday:

Most of my ballot:

I-1433: Yes
I-1464: Yes
I-1491: Yes
I-1501: No
I-732: Yes
I-735: Yes

US Senator: Patty Murray
US Representative: Brady Walkinshaw (my hardest decision by far)
Governor: Jay Inslee
Lt Governor: Cyrus Habib
Secretary of State: Tina Podlodowski
Treasurer: Duane Davidson (only R)
Auditor: Pat McCarthy
Attorney General: Bob Ferguson
CPL: Hillary Franz
SPI: Chris Reykdal
Insurance Comm: Mike Kreidler

State Rep: Jessyn Farrell and Gerry Pollett

Supreme Court: Yu, Madsen, Wiggins

AND MOST IMPORTANTLY: Yes on Proposition 1 aka ST3.
-----

Also, voting up to 432,735 or 10.2%, but I don't think King County numbers updated?

Nope.  King County posts at 8 PM every weeknight


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on October 26, 2016, 10:25:22 PM
I voted yesterday:

Most of my ballot:

I-1433: Yes
I-1464: Yes
I-1491: Yes
I-1501: No
I-732: Yes
I-735: Yes

US Senator: Patty Murray
US Representative: Brady Walkinshaw (my hardest decision by far)
Governor: Jay Inslee
Lt Governor: Cyrus Habib
Secretary of State: Tina Podlodowski
Treasurer: Duane Davidson (only R)
Auditor: Pat McCarthy
Attorney General: Bob Ferguson
CPL: Hillary Franz
SPI: Chris Reykdal
Insurance Comm: Mike Kreidler

State Rep: Jessyn Farrell and Gerry Pollett

Supreme Court: Yu, Madsen, Wiggins

AND MOST IMPORTANTLY: Yes on Proposition 1 aka ST3.
-----

Also, voting up to 432,735 or 10.2%, but I don't think King County numbers updated?

What made you choose Walkinshaw over Jayapal? I think both are fantastic, and I'm glad I don't have to choose.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 26, 2016, 10:57:55 PM
It's actually some weird logic. First off, I should say I was actually a Jayapal voter in the primary. However, I am first and foremost an urbanist and that is what Walkinshaw is. That generally doesn't really impact my vote outside of City of Seattle elections, but it did here. At first I wanted Walkinshaw to stay in the WA legislature as he has been an excellent voice for urbanists and Seattle in Olympia, so I was a bit annoyed that he decided to leave his position, plus I have so much respect for Pramila as a strong progressive and for what's she's done for immigrants, which is what led to my primary vote. Anyway, if he can bring his pro-urban, pro-transit, pro-housing agenda to D.C, I would be thrilled, so that's basically what changed my vote.

Coincidentally, I'm not in Walkinshaw's district, but I strongly support Dan Shih. Plus, if he's elected, he'll be the 4th gay married man in a row to represent the house position, haha (this is the district of Mayor Murray, Jamie Pederson, and now Walkinshaw).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on October 27, 2016, 12:25:29 AM
Coincidentally, I'm not in Walkinshaw's district, but I strongly support Dan Shih. Plus, if he's elected, he'll be the 4th gay married man in a row to represent the house position, haha (this is the district of Mayor Murray, Jamie Pederson, and now Walkinshaw).

Shih's great, but Macri is an amazing leader on the affordable housing/homeless problem front. And while not a man, she is a married gay.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 27, 2016, 02:53:02 AM
Coincidentally, I'm not in Walkinshaw's district, but I strongly support Dan Shih. Plus, if he's elected, he'll be the 4th gay married man in a row to represent the house position, haha (this is the district of Mayor Murray, Jamie Pederson, and now Walkinshaw).

And while not a man, she is a married gay.

I did not know that! The tradition continues, regardless! I think Macri is a great candidate and has some of the best experience in dealing with Seattle's homeless problem. That race reminds me of the city council Johnson/Maddox race, where both candidates are amazing, but in the end, there's a clear urbanist choice (Johnson and Shih). I would LOVE if Maddox challenged Sawant though, not that I hate her or anything, but she's surprisingly anti-density and pro-single-family-home.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on October 27, 2016, 03:02:10 PM
Coincidentally, I'm not in Walkinshaw's district, but I strongly support Dan Shih. Plus, if he's elected, he'll be the 4th gay married man in a row to represent the house position, haha (this is the district of Mayor Murray, Jamie Pederson, and now Walkinshaw).

And while not a man, she is a married gay.

I did not know that! The tradition continues, regardless! I think Macri is a great candidate and has some of the best experience in dealing with Seattle's homeless problem. That race reminds me of the city council Johnson/Maddox race, where both candidates are amazing, but in the end, there's a clear urbanist choice (Johnson and Shih). I would LOVE if Maddox challenged Sawant though, not that I hate her or anything, but she's surprisingly anti-density and pro-single-family-home.

What are Marci's stances in regards to Seattle's recent homeless debates? If she's an advocate with some knowledge on the matter I imagine she has a better position than SCC's current "stick them in parks!" plan but I've learned long ago that the housing debate in Seattle frequently misses the forest for the trees, with someone like Sawant being a perfect example.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on October 27, 2016, 06:25:49 PM
Coincidentally, I'm not in Walkinshaw's district, but I strongly support Dan Shih. Plus, if he's elected, he'll be the 4th gay married man in a row to represent the house position, haha (this is the district of Mayor Murray, Jamie Pederson, and now Walkinshaw).

And while not a man, she is a married gay.

I did not know that! The tradition continues, regardless! I think Macri is a great candidate and has some of the best experience in dealing with Seattle's homeless problem. That race reminds me of the city council Johnson/Maddox race, where both candidates are amazing, but in the end, there's a clear urbanist choice (Johnson and Shih). I would LOVE if Maddox challenged Sawant though, not that I hate her or anything, but she's surprisingly anti-density and pro-single-family-home.

What are Marci's stances in regards to Seattle's recent homeless debates? If she's an advocate with some knowledge on the matter I imagine she has a better position than SCC's current "stick them in parks!" plan but I've learned long ago that the housing debate in Seattle frequently misses the forest for the trees, with someone like Sawant being a perfect example.

This is the most I can find:

Quote
In recent weeks, the top local political issue has been over legislation to expand protections for people sleeping in unsanctioned encampments around the city, which some have seen as a distraction from Mayor Ed Murray’s housing first plan.

Macri and Shih agree the city should be pursuing housing first strategies, but differ slightly on the path Seattle should take when it comes to regulating encampments. Recognizing the difficulty of defining suitable locations for people to live outside, Macri said she was still supportive of efforts to legislate protections and locations for people living in camps.

Arguing the city needed significant discretion in handling encampments, Shih said he would prefer to see encampment protocols set through city departments rather than by ordinance.

When it comes to building more affordable housing, Macri and Shih have both called for adding more money into the state Housing Trust Fund as the primary way to create more low-income units in the district. Macri is also a proponent of raising a fee on certain real estate documents which provides flexible funds for affordable housing programs. The fee has been cut in previous years.

Shih cautioned against an “over focus” on subsidy programs. “Those funds can move the needle, but it is not going to be a comprehensive solution,” he said.

Shih has emphasized on creating market rate development to ease the pressure on affordable units. By working to adjust the state’s population forecasts, which Shih says have come in far too low, Shih hopes to trigger zoning changes in the district to allow for higher and denser market-rate development.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on October 27, 2016, 07:33:41 PM
Sounds like Shih is more on my wavelength but they are both remarkably clear-eyed about the issue. Macri I'm sure will be a fine legislator


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on October 27, 2016, 11:57:42 PM
Sounds like Shih is more on my wavelength but they are both remarkably clear-eyed about the issue. Macri I'm sure will be a fine legislator

Part of Macri's background was setting up housing for the homeless that let tenants drink on the premises. It was unpopular, but Macri fought for it because she believed that large amounts of the homeless population would chose booze over housing if they were forced to, and she didn't want to turn them away.

Stuff like that, fighting for unpopular measures for the greater good, really impresses me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on October 28, 2016, 10:12:57 AM
Sounds like Shih is more on my wavelength but they are both remarkably clear-eyed about the issue. Macri I'm sure will be a fine legislator

Part of Macri's background was setting up housing for the homeless that let tenants drink on the premises. It was unpopular, but Macri fought for it because she believed that large amounts of the homeless population would chose booze over housing if they were forced to, and she didn't want to turn them away.

Stuff like that, fighting for unpopular measures for the greater good, really impresses me.

That's actually a pretty good idea. Also why I always give food to homeless rather than money, so I help with hunger rather than potentially fuel an alcohol habit.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: BuckeyeNut on October 28, 2016, 01:42:55 PM
Why so many (D)'s voting for an (R) Treasurer?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 28, 2016, 02:07:27 PM
Why so many (D)'s voting for an (R) Treasurer?

Both candidates are Republican due to the Top Two Primary.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on October 29, 2016, 03:39:28 PM
Is Sound Transit 3 just simple majority of combined vote of all counties?  They don't have to get a majority in each to pass, correct?

How was Sound Transit 2 again in this regard? Was it a majority in all three?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 29, 2016, 04:20:02 PM
It's a simple majority over the taxing area, which is not actually the entirety of each of the three counties.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on October 31, 2016, 12:48:41 PM
Filled out my ballot over the weekend.

Prez: Clinton
Senate: Murray
Gov: Inslee (ugh)
SOS: Wyman (R)
Treas: Davidson (R)
Super: Reykdal
Lands: McLaughlin (R)
LGov: Habib
Congress: Pakootas (first time I voted against Cathy)
State Rep 1: Vehrs (D)
State Rep 2: Holy (R, his opponent is a loon)
Spokane County Commish: Mumm (D)
Transit Initiative: Yes


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on October 31, 2016, 01:12:17 PM
Maybe I should mention that I did turn in my ballot last week:

I-1433: Yes
I-1464: Yes
I-1491: Yes
I-1501: No
I-732: Yes
I-735: Yes

US President/Vice President: Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine
US Senator: Patty Murray
US Representative: Pramila Jayapal
Governor: Jay Inslee
Lt Governor: Cyrus Habib
Secretary of State: Tina Podlodowski
Treasurer: Duane Davidson
Auditor: Pat McCarthy
Attorney General: Bob Ferguson
CPL: Hillary Franz
SPI: Erin Jones
Insurance Comm: Mike Kreidler


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on October 31, 2016, 10:16:52 PM
I voted Erin Jones in the primary, but some of her controversies on gay rights scared me towards Reykdal.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 01, 2016, 12:05:34 AM
After sitting on it a week, I finally filled out the Presidential portion of my ballot and sent it off... My wife and I both wrote-in Michael Maturen. So that's one fewer Obama voter and one fewer Romney voter going for a major party candidate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on November 01, 2016, 02:17:23 AM
My ballot:

I-1433: Yes
I-1464: Yes
I-1491: Yes
I-1501: No
I-732: Yes - This was one of my toughest choices.
I-735: Yes
R-8210: Approved
King County Charter Amendments 1 and 2: Yes

US President/Vice President: Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine
US Senator: Patty Murray
US Representative: Pramila Jayapal - Last minute decision, I'd be happy with either.
Governor: Jay Inslee
Lt Governor: Cyrus Habib
Secretary of State: Tina Podlodowski
Treasurer: Duane Davidson
Auditor: Pat McCarthy
Attorney General: Bob Ferguson
CPL: Hillary Franz
SPI: Chris Reykdal
Insurance Comm: Mike Kreidler

Justice Position 1: Mary Yu
Justice Position 5: Barbara Madsen
Justice Position 6: Charlie Wiggins
Judge Position 14: Nicole Gaines Phelps
Judge Position 26: David Keenan
Judge Position 31: Helen Halpert
Judge Position 44: Cathy Moore
Judge Position 52: Anthony Gipe
Judge Position 53: Marianne Spearman

Seattle I-124: Yes
Seattle Prop 1: Yes


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: mds32 on November 01, 2016, 08:27:20 AM
My ballot:

I-1433: Yes
I-1464: Yes
I-1491: Yes
I-1501: No
I-732: Yes - This was one of my toughest choices.
I-735: Yes
R-8210: Approved
King County Charter Amendments 1 and 2: Yes

US President/Vice President: Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine
US Senator: Patty Murray
US Representative: Pramila Jayapal - Last minute decision, I'd be happy with either.
Governor: Jay Inslee
Lt Governor: Cyrus Habib
Secretary of State: Tina Podlodowski
Treasurer: Duane Davidson
Auditor: Pat McCarthy
Attorney General: Bob Ferguson
CPL: Hillary Franz
SPI: Chris Reykdal
Insurance Comm: Mike Kreidler

Justice Position 1: Mary Yu
Justice Position 5: Barbara Madsen
Justice Position 6: Charlie Wiggins
Judge Position 14: Nicole Gaines Phelps
Judge Position 26: David Keenan
Judge Position 31: Helen Halpert
Judge Position 44: Cathy Moore
Judge Position 52: Anthony Gipe
Judge Position 53: Marianne Spearman

Seattle I-124: Yes
Seattle Prop 1: Yes

Can I ask why Duane Davidson rather than the other GOPer?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on November 01, 2016, 11:37:01 AM
My ballot:

I-1433: Yes
I-1464: Yes
I-1491: Yes
I-1501: No
I-732: Yes - This was one of my toughest choices.
I-735: Yes
R-8210: Approved
King County Charter Amendments 1 and 2: Yes

US President/Vice President: Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine
US Senator: Patty Murray
US Representative: Pramila Jayapal - Last minute decision, I'd be happy with either.
Governor: Jay Inslee
Lt Governor: Cyrus Habib
Secretary of State: Tina Podlodowski
Treasurer: Duane Davidson
Auditor: Pat McCarthy
Attorney General: Bob Ferguson
CPL: Hillary Franz
SPI: Chris Reykdal
Insurance Comm: Mike Kreidler

Justice Position 1: Mary Yu
Justice Position 5: Barbara Madsen
Justice Position 6: Charlie Wiggins
Judge Position 14: Nicole Gaines Phelps
Judge Position 26: David Keenan
Judge Position 31: Helen Halpert
Judge Position 44: Cathy Moore
Judge Position 52: Anthony Gipe
Judge Position 53: Marianne Spearman

Seattle I-124: Yes
Seattle Prop 1: Yes

Can I ask why Duane Davidson rather than the other GOPer?

Can't speak for Boko, but Davidson seems to have less of a partisan agenda than Waite, who wants to get rid of the capital gains tax. Davidson seems like he'll focus on doing his job rather than spouting GOP talking points.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on November 01, 2016, 12:38:42 PM
My ballot:

I-1433: Yes
I-1464: Yes
I-1491: Yes
I-1501: No
I-732: Yes - This was one of my toughest choices.
I-735: Yes
R-8210: Approved
King County Charter Amendments 1 and 2: Yes

US President/Vice President: Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine
US Senator: Patty Murray
US Representative: Pramila Jayapal - Last minute decision, I'd be happy with either.
Governor: Jay Inslee
Lt Governor: Cyrus Habib
Secretary of State: Tina Podlodowski
Treasurer: Duane Davidson
Auditor: Pat McCarthy
Attorney General: Bob Ferguson
CPL: Hillary Franz
SPI: Chris Reykdal
Insurance Comm: Mike Kreidler

Justice Position 1: Mary Yu
Justice Position 5: Barbara Madsen
Justice Position 6: Charlie Wiggins
Judge Position 14: Nicole Gaines Phelps
Judge Position 26: David Keenan
Judge Position 31: Helen Halpert
Judge Position 44: Cathy Moore
Judge Position 52: Anthony Gipe
Judge Position 53: Marianne Spearman

Seattle I-124: Yes
Seattle Prop 1: Yes

Can I ask why Duane Davidson rather than the other GOPer?

Can't speak for Boko, but Davidson seems to have less of a partisan agenda than Waite, who wants to get rid of the capital gains tax. Davidson seems like he'll focus on doing his job rather than spouting GOP talking points.

I just went with the Stranger's endorsement on that one. I assumed they would go for the relatively saner one.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 01, 2016, 07:58:45 PM
State Senator Andy Hill (R-Redmond), also the GOP's chief budget writer, passed today from lung cancer at the age of 54. RIP, he was a decent guy and a competent legislator. He represented a fairly D-leaning district.

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-sen-andy-hill-dies-of-lung-cancer/ (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-sen-andy-hill-dies-of-lung-cancer/)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: mds32 on November 02, 2016, 12:01:43 PM
State Senator Andy Hill (R-Redmond), also the GOP's chief budget writer, passed today from lung cancer at the age of 54. RIP, he was a decent guy and a competent legislator. He represented a fairly D-leaning district.

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-sen-andy-hill-dies-of-lung-cancer/ (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-sen-andy-hill-dies-of-lung-cancer/)

So a special election will occur in the following year with the GOP being allowed to appoint a successor until then?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on November 02, 2016, 01:16:02 PM
State Senator Andy Hill (R-Redmond), also the GOP's chief budget writer, passed today from lung cancer at the age of 54. RIP, he was a decent guy and a competent legislator. He represented a fairly D-leaning district.

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-sen-andy-hill-dies-of-lung-cancer/ (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-sen-andy-hill-dies-of-lung-cancer/)

So a special election will occur in the following year with the GOP being allowed to appoint a successor until then?

Correct. Sure to be a competitive race.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 04, 2016, 12:00:58 AM
State Senator Andy Hill (R-Redmond), also the GOP's chief budget writer, passed today from lung cancer at the age of 54. RIP, he was a decent guy and a competent legislator. He represented a fairly D-leaning district.

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-sen-andy-hill-dies-of-lung-cancer/ (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-sen-andy-hill-dies-of-lung-cancer/)

Jeez! RIP


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 04, 2016, 12:15:30 PM
State Senator Andy Hill (R-Redmond), also the GOP's chief budget writer, passed today from lung cancer at the age of 54. RIP, he was a decent guy and a competent legislator. He represented a fairly D-leaning district.

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-sen-andy-hill-dies-of-lung-cancer/ (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-sen-andy-hill-dies-of-lung-cancer/)

So a special election will occur in the following year with the GOP being allowed to appoint a successor until then?

Correct. Sure to be a competitive race.

It'll be really, really competitive. Downtown Kirkland, fast-growing Redmond suburbs, the "old eastside" with Duvall and Sammamish... should be interesting.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on November 10, 2016, 10:53:25 PM
My home of Clallam County is currently one of the closest margins in the nation. Trump leads by 8 votes, 13,741 to 13,733.

I certainly would have never guessed it to vote to the left of Grays Harbor county. Doesn't seem to have dragged down local Democrats at all however. Derek Kilmer got 62% of the vote in CD-06, and all 3 Democrats in LD-24 won by similar margins as well.
 

Also, anyone notice Patty Murray put up amazing numbers in Eastern WA? She won Whitman, Spokane, and most surprisingly Walla Walla counties.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: cwt on November 11, 2016, 01:56:13 PM
Here is how Western and Eastern WA were split (as of 11/11/16):

ClintonTrumpOtherMargin
Western WA58.9734.276.76Clinton +24.7
Eastern WA37.7255.386.90Trump +17.66
Total54.9438.276.79Clinton +16.67


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 11, 2016, 08:10:12 PM
Looking towards the legislature:

There are still some 600k votes left to be counted, so results can still be swayed (particularly in King(200k)/Pierce(90k)/Snohomish(80k)).

House:
Ds are currently at a very tenuous +1. It could shift to no net change or even up to +4.

Of particular note, LD30 (Federal Way) just voted out both of its incumbent Rs, so D+2 there. R+1 in nearby LD31 (rural farms of King and Pierce), where longtime "independent D" incumbent Chris Hurst retired.

LD19, on the coast, swung massively to Trump. He most likely won this traditionally conservadem district. Anyway, Dean Takko upgraded to the senate and so his house seat was left open. It's currently a D hold, but oh so barely. Teresa Purcell (D) leads by 83 votes. Takko and the other D incumbent, Blake, won easily, but under-performed.

Then we have LD5 (Issaquah, North Bend, Snoqualmie), where both house seats are very close, Jay Rodne (R, inc) leads Jason Ritchie (D) by 3%, though Ritchie originally lead. Idk where the votes are in this district, but its not likely this will flip. Graves (R) leads Burner (D) in the open seat by 5.5%.

Finally, there's R-held, open seats in LD17 (newly annexed Vancouver and other PDX suburbs), where Vicki Craft (R) leads Sam Kim (Independent D) by 3%.

Senate
Litzow finally succumbed to the fundamentals of LD41 (Mercer Island, Bellevue, Sammamish), that most likely will have voted D+40 for Clinton. Lisa Wellman (D) leads by 5.5%.

Chad Magendanz (R), tried to upgrade his LD5 house position, but it looks like he's fallen short and trails incumbent Mark Mullet (D)by 2.5%.

The only other really competitive race is in LD28 (parts of Tacoma, Lakewood, JBLM), where incumbent Steve O'Ban (R) leads Marisa Peloquin (D) by 6%.

So D+1, but also keep in mind, I think the Ds will also pick up Andy Hill's seat, which won't be very competitive with a Trump presidency (another district that voted massively for Clinton).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 11, 2016, 08:54:08 PM
It's tIke to stop trying to make Darcy Burner happen. It's not gonna happen.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Maxwell on November 11, 2016, 09:14:06 PM
you mean to tell me Litzlow survived a D+40 district for a long time? wow that's impressive.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 11, 2016, 09:24:26 PM
you mean to tell me Litzlow survived a D+40 district for a long time? wow that's impressive.

Not quite, more like D+25 (I think it was 62-36 Obama?). This year it'll likely be a D+35 to D+40 district. King county is currently voting 72-21 (!!!) for Clinton (was 69-29 in 2012), and this seat is the epicenter of wealthy, educated Rs abandoning Trump.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 11, 2016, 09:42:07 PM
Republicans have gained since, but Litzow's district was D+44 on Election Night.  Absolute shellacking in the Seattle suburbs this year.  There's a <10% Republican precinct in Redmond.  Hunts Point was a Clinton lead.

Seattle itself was 88.07%-8.10% Clinton (!).  Even Laurelhurst was under 10% Trump in early returns.  Broadmoor Country Club, the city's last remaining Republican bastion, was voting 67-26% Clinton.

It's amazing to think there are counties in the Midwest with 40-point swings toward Trump, all while he loses his crap in places like the Eastside.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 11, 2016, 09:51:22 PM
My goodness, Litzow is losing by 5.5%, meanwhile LD41 is voting 68.5-25 Clinton, that's stunning.





Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on November 12, 2016, 01:06:42 AM
^ That's why i would theoretically prefer Litzow to survive instead of much less talented (and more ideologically "pure") Republicans in other areas. The fact that he could hold for so long in such hostile area tells about big political talent and quite sane views...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 12, 2016, 02:35:01 AM
The only two counties that voted for McGovern in '72 went for Trump by 5%+ each (Grey's Harbor and Pacific).  If Kurt Cobain wasn't spinning in his grave before, he is now.  :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 12, 2016, 03:24:19 AM
The current Presidential map

() (https://upload.vstanced.com/images/2016/11/12/O0x.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on November 12, 2016, 10:37:44 AM
The only two counties that voted for McGovern in '72 went for Trump by 5%+ each (Grey's Harbor and Pacific).  If Kurt Cobain wasn't spinning in his grave before, he is now.  :P

Not only him. FDR - too. White blue collar voters were his staple, a main source of support. Now Democratic party is a party of "coastal elite" - New York's Upper East side, Beverly Hills, and so on. Not surprising that Trump (as much as i abhor him) understood that... As long as LGBT issues trump "bread and butter" - we will have an idiocy like this year. Party deserved it's fate...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 12, 2016, 01:56:35 PM
Alcon, I'm excited for your or realisticidealist's maps.

Some early observations: I'm surprised Port Orchard and Woodway voted for Trump. Also, I don't think Obama ever did as well as Clinton around Gig Harbor/Pierce County part of the Kitsap Peninsula.

It's hard to tell, but did Clinton manage to carry Monroe?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 12, 2016, 02:10:02 PM
Alcon, I'm excited for your or realisticidealist's maps.

Some early observations: I'm surprised Port Orchard and Woodway voted for Trump. Also, I don't think Obama ever did as well as Clinton around Gig Harbor/Pierce County part of the Kitsap Peninsula.

It's hard to tell, but did Clinton manage to carry Monroe?

Clinton carried the second Woodway precinct in a landslide...she just seems to have gotten really unlucky in the southern one.  Woodway was 54-37 Clinton overall.

Monroe was 44-43 Clinton.  There's more ballots to be counted, but she should narrowly carry it.

Port Orchard is interesting.  The new subdivisions voted Trump pretty solidly, while the older part of town swung toward him.  It would have been a solider Trump win, but he only tied the normally-GOP McCormick Woods, the huge golf course development that was annexed a few years back.  Kitsap County would have swung Trump by a few points, but he totally lost his crap in the north end of the county.  Bainbridge Island fell from 23% Romney to 14% Trump.

And, yeah, Clinton beat Obama's margins around Gig Harbor.  The Key Peninsula (the landform to the west of the Gig Harbor Peninsula) swung a good bit toward Trump, though.  Not a surprise.  That's a reflection of the socioeconomics of the area.  Rural Gig Harbor has a lot of affluent commuters, while the Key Peninsula has a lot of folks in trailers and the like.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 12, 2016, 02:32:16 PM
Initial Snohomish County results
Arlington: Trump 51.2, Clinton 37.9, Johnson 5.8, WI 3.5
Bothell: Clinton: 59.0, Trump 30.6, Johnson 5.5, WI 2.9
Brier: Clinton 57.5, Trump 31.9, Johnson 5.6, WI 3.0
Edmonds: Clinton 64.9, Trump 25.7, Johnson 4.1, WI 3.2
Everett: Clinton 56.7, Trump 32.2, Johnson 4.8, WI 3.2, Stein 2.2
Granite Falls: Trump 47.9, Clinton 38.3, Johnson 6.6, WI 3.6
Lake Stevens: Clinton 46.5, Trump 41.1, Johnson 6.2, WI 3.6
Lynnwood: Clinton 62.3, Trump 28.1, Johnson 4.3, WI 2.4
Marysville: Trump 44.7, Clinton 43.3, Johnson 6.2, WI 3.2
Mill Creek: Clinton 57.1, Trump 33.5, Johnson 4.7, WI 3.0
Monroe: Clinton 44.3, Trump 42.6, Johnson 6.4, WI 3.7
Mountlake Terrace: Clinton 67.0, Trump 22.9, Johnson 4.8, WI 2.7
Mukilteo: Clinton 60.2, Trump 30.6, Johnson 4.6, WI 3.0
Snohomish: Clinton 48.9, Trump 38.2, Johnson 6.2, WI 3.7, Stein 2.1
Stanwood: Trump 48.3, Clinton 39.6, Johnson 5.7, WI 4.0
Sultan: Trump 49.2, Clinton 36.1, Johnson 7.6, WI 3.6, Stein 2.5
Tulalip: Clinton 54.5, Trump 38.1, Johnson 3.6
Woodway: Clinton 53.6, Trump 37.1, Johnson 5.1, WI 3.4


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on November 12, 2016, 03:28:00 PM
Another close result: In Grays Harbor, Pat McCarthy leads Bob Miloscia by ONE vote. 11,399 to 11,398


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on November 12, 2016, 04:41:51 PM
()

Check out the urban/suburban divide on ST3.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 12, 2016, 07:46:09 PM
()

Check out the urban/suburban divide on ST3.

Redmond really wants their part of the line finished, clearly


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 12, 2016, 07:57:13 PM
Some more results from around the state:

CityCountyClintonTrumpJohnsonStein
OthelloAdams42.351.44.3
RitzvilleAdams25.068.84.2
ForksClallam34.458.64.3
Port AngelesClallam51.940.84.5
SequimClallam51.143.43.0
AberdeenGrays Harbor43.648.94.7
HoquiamGrays Harbor47.244.55.2
Ocean ShoresGrays Harbor47.847.03.2
Camano IslandIsland46.547.14.7
Oak HarborIsland38.950.67.7
Port LudlowJefferson52.841.34.0
Port TownsendJefferson77.714.52.44.7
Bainbridge IslandKitsap80.114.63.6
BremertonKitsap54.234.77.6
Port OrchardKitsap44.945.07.6
AnacortesSkagit56.137.84.0
BurlingtonSkagit44.946.86.0
Mount VernonSkagit55.038.34.5
Sedro-WooleySkagit42.049.55.8
CheneySpokane48.039.08.2
Liberty LakeSpokane35.956.56.0
SpokaneSpokane52.438.05.7
Spokane ValleySpokane37.154.15.9
LaceyThurston54.536.76.0
OlympiaThurston70.520.93.84.0
TumwaterThurston56.334.45.9
YelmThurston33.054.89.2
College PlaceWalla Walla35.956.16.1
Walla WallaWalla Walla47.846.04.0
PullmanWhitman69.821.55.7


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 12, 2016, 08:08:07 PM
Wow at Walla Walla going D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 12, 2016, 10:34:57 PM
With only about 4,000 ballots left to count, here are the precinct results for Whatcom County.

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5422_12_11_16_10_06_43.png)

                  Clinton    Trump       (MOV)            

Bellingham: 72.28%-19.63%  (52.65%)  

Ferndale:     45.50%-45.59%  (5 votes, lol)

Blaine:         49.20%-44.10%  (5.10%)

Lynden:       69.01%-24.52%  (44.49%)



Trump might be the only Republican in US history to get less than 20% of the vote in Bellingham.  It's too bad she's losing Ferndale by 5 votes out of over 5,000 total, but she's still winning the 42nd LD by about 2%.

I'm not surprised to see the smaller towns like Kendall and Custer swing hard towards Trump, considering their large percentage of low-income whites.  Likewise, it's also worth mentioning that the Northeast precinct by lake Whatcom went from being +10% Romeny to +15% Clinton, due to it's abundance of affluent whites who absolutely despise Trump.    

Also, lol at Trump for failing to hit 70% in Lynden.  


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on November 13, 2016, 11:52:02 AM
Can we now FINALLY put to bed this notion that "Crazy King County" delivers big results to 3rd parties?

Stein is at 1.61% and Johnson at 3.95%.  So combined they overperformed about 1% vs the nation.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 13, 2016, 01:41:35 PM
Well, third party + right-ins = 9.2% right now in King County. That's pretty high.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 14, 2016, 06:27:45 PM
I've been following late returns and they've definitely been less pro-Clinton than the election day vote, even in King County. That's a change from the norm, isn't it?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 14, 2016, 09:36:35 PM
Clark County flipped to Trump by 5 votes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 14, 2016, 09:59:29 PM
I've been following late returns and they've definitely been less pro-Clinton than the election day vote, even in King County. That's a change from the norm, isn't it?

Yes, especially in King County, where late turns usually veer very Democratic.  Early ballot returns this year were way Democratic-skewed, and it looks like that's showing up in the results.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 14, 2016, 10:29:55 PM
Does anyone have any inclination why Whitman County's turnout is down over 50% from 2012? It's not like the population's declined.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: BigSkyBob on November 15, 2016, 03:46:54 AM
Looking towards the legislature:

There are still some 600k votes left to be counted, so results can still be swayed (particularly in King(200k)/Pierce(90k)/Snohomish(80k)).

House:
Ds are currently at a very tenuous +1. It could shift to no net change or even up to +4.

Of particular note, LD30 (Federal Way) just voted out both of its incumbent Rs, so D+2 there. R+1 in nearby LD31 (rural farms of King and Pierce), where longtime "independent D" incumbent Chris Hurst retired.

LD19, on the coast, swung massively to Trump. He most likely won this traditionally conservadem district. Anyway, Dean Takko upgraded to the senate and so his house seat was left open. It's currently a D hold, but oh so barely. Teresa Purcell (D) leads by 83 votes. Takko and the other D incumbent, Blake, won easily, but under-performed.

Then we have LD5 (Issaquah, North Bend, Snoqualmie), where both house seats are very close, Jay Rodne (R, inc) leads Jason Ritchie (D) by 3%, though Ritchie originally lead. Idk where the votes are in this district, but its not likely this will flip. Graves (R) leads Burner (D) in the open seat by 5.5%.

Finally, there's R-held, open seats in LD17 (newly annexed Vancouver and other PDX suburbs), where Vicki Craft (R) leads Sam Kim (Independent D) by 3%.

Senate
Litzow finally succumbed to the fundamentals of LD41 (Mercer Island, Bellevue, Sammamish), that most likely will have voted D+40 for Clinton. Lisa Wellman (D) leads by 5.5%.

Chad Magendanz (R), tried to upgrade his LD5 house position, but it looks like he's fallen short and trails incumbent Mark Mullet (D)by 2.5%.

The only other really competitive race is in LD28 (parts of Tacoma, Lakewood, JBLM), where incumbent Steve O'Ban (R) leads Marisa Peloquin (D) by 6%.

So D+1, but also keep in mind, I think the Ds will also pick up Andy Hill's seat, which won't be very competitive with a Trump presidency (another district that voted massively for Clinton).

Jim Walsh is now ahead of Teresa Purcell by 76 votes in LD19 [Lewis County had over a third of the ballots uncounted on election night.] Chad Magendanz is now within 1.38% in LD5, and Terri Hickey is now down 1.92% in LD30.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on November 15, 2016, 04:14:53 PM
If Jaime Beutler wasn't ultra safe before, she certainly is going forward


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 15, 2016, 08:18:14 PM
Clark County just unexpectedly flipped back to Clinton.

Does anyone have any inclination why Whitman County's turnout is down over 50% from 2012? It's not like the population's declined.

Pullman turnout looks absolutely terrible, which is a big part of why the county is even close right now.  But above that, their Auditor's department is also terrible.  They report as only 72% counted.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: BigSkyBob on November 15, 2016, 10:29:21 PM
Looking towards the legislature:

There are still some 600k votes left to be counted, so results can still be swayed (particularly in King(200k)/Pierce(90k)/Snohomish(80k)).

House:
Ds are currently at a very tenuous +1. It could shift to no net change or even up to +4.

Of particular note, LD30 (Federal Way) just voted out both of its incumbent Rs, so D+2 there. R+1 in nearby LD31 (rural farms of King and Pierce), where longtime "independent D" incumbent Chris Hurst retired.

LD19, on the coast, swung massively to Trump. He most likely won this traditionally conservadem district. Anyway, Dean Takko upgraded to the senate and so his house seat was left open. It's currently a D hold, but oh so barely. Teresa Purcell (D) leads by 83 votes. Takko and the other D incumbent, Blake, won easily, but under-performed.

Then we have LD5 (Issaquah, North Bend, Snoqualmie), where both house seats are very close, Jay Rodne (R, inc) leads Jason Ritchie (D) by 3%, though Ritchie originally lead. Idk where the votes are in this district, but its not likely this will flip. Graves (R) leads Burner (D) in the open seat by 5.5%.

Finally, there's R-held, open seats in LD17 (newly annexed Vancouver and other PDX suburbs), where Vicki Craft (R) leads Sam Kim (Independent D) by 3%.

Senate
Litzow finally succumbed to the fundamentals of LD41 (Mercer Island, Bellevue, Sammamish), that most likely will have voted D+40 for Clinton. Lisa Wellman (D) leads by 5.5%.

Chad Magendanz (R), tried to upgrade his LD5 house position, but it looks like he's fallen short and trails incumbent Mark Mullet (D)by 2.5%.

The only other really competitive race is in LD28 (parts of Tacoma, Lakewood, JBLM), where incumbent Steve O'Ban (R) leads Marisa Peloquin (D) by 6%.

So D+1, but also keep in mind, I think the Ds will also pick up Andy Hill's seat, which won't be very competitive with a Trump presidency (another district that voted massively for Clinton).

Jim Walsh is now ahead of Teresa Purcell by 76 votes in LD19 [Lewis County had over a third of the ballots uncounted on election night.] Chad Magendanz is now within 1.38% in LD5, and Teri Hickey is now down 1.92% in LD30.
Jim Walsh is now 127 votes ahead, with most the outstanding ballots in Lewis County. He should win. Madgendanz is within 1.22%, and Teri Hickey is within  1.76%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on November 15, 2016, 11:40:33 PM
Clark County just unexpectedly flipped back to Clinton.

Does anyone have any inclination why Whitman County's turnout is down over 50% from 2012? It's not like the population's declined.

Pullman turnout looks absolutely terrible, which is a big part of why the county is even close right now.  But above that, their Auditor's department is also terrible.  They report as only 72% counted.

If Pullman turnout is low, why did Whitman go blue this year after being a Romney county?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 16, 2016, 12:18:47 AM
If Pullman turnout is low, why did Whitman go blue this year after being a Romney county?

Among (many) other things, all the Romney-voting Mormons here (~5% of the pop) wrote-in McMullin or didn't vote.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 16, 2016, 12:41:19 AM
Clark County just unexpectedly flipped back to Clinton.

Does anyone have any inclination why Whitman County's turnout is down over 50% from 2012? It's not like the population's declined.

Pullman turnout looks absolutely terrible, which is a big part of why the county is even close right now.  But above that, their Auditor's department is also terrible.  They report as only 72% counted.

If Pullman turnout is low, why did Whitman go blue this year after being a Romney county?

Not sure about the write-in explanation...Whitman isn't reporting an unusual number of those.  The biggest factor is that Pullman is actually a pretty college-educated city even outside of its university population, and Trump took it on the chin there.  Obama won by 28 points in 2012; this year, Clinton is winning by at least 42.  And turnout wasn't that bad outside of the WSU campus (should have clarified).  Pullman's vote total should fall from 8,627 last time to just over 8,000 this time.  The county is overall on track to cast more votes, though, and that will limit Clinton's margin of victory despite the impressive Pullman swing, because Pullman will be a lower % of the county vote, and Trump did just fine in places like Colfax.

(Fast math, hopefully I didn't miss something)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 16, 2016, 02:32:39 AM
I'm going through the Pullman precinct results more carefully. It seems the high-growth, cookie-cutter suburban developments in the west of town saw the best turnout, either essentially flat or even up. These areas have seen rapid building and quickly climbing property values; as SEL's expanded, the engineers have been buying them up like crazy as it's pretty much the only such area in town. Unsurprisingly, this area saw a large swing against Trump compared to 2012.

Turnout was down on campus, but not uniformly so. There was a massive turnout decline (so far) in the dorm precincts on the south side of campus and a slightly smaller, although still large, drop-off in the Greek Row area on the north side of campus (Greek Row featured Johnson's second best performance in town). A couple apartment complex areas to the east and northeast side of campus actually swung toward Trump with relatively small turnout declines, particularly the area around Banyans Golf Club; not many people live out on the east side of town, however.

The more heavily Mormon apartment complexes on the northeast side of town swung moderately toward Hillary, but only because Trump's share crashed there; Hillary's proportion stayed constant from 2012 to 2016, but Johnson did his best of anywhere in town here (tied Trump for second), although these numbers don't include the write-ins, which I believe were notable here.

Off-campus, there was also a strong swing to Hillary in the area to the north of town that's been undergoing large-scale apartment building. Even though the area is almost entirely students, turnout compared to 2012 wasn't awful there due to a relatively large population increase. The area is fairly East Asian as of 2010, but I suspect the proportion may have declined since then with an influx of white and Arab students in the new developments.

Just north of this is a precinct that is a weird mix of SEL-types, Mormons, and pet-friendly students. Johnson got this third and final >10% performance here, although turnout was quite down from 2012. SEL's been buying up lots of land here to build a second facility for the next phase of their expansion.

Military Hill on the northwest side of town saw rather stable turnout from 2012 and a much smaller swing than the rest of town. This isn't overly surprising as the area is mostly townie-types in older neighborhoods who keep themselves separate from the WSU student areas. Most professors and administrators live on either Sunnyside Hill (which saw a strong swing to Clinton and relatively strong turnout) or on Pioneer Hill (which saw a modest swing to Clinton and relatively strong turnout), but not as much on Military Hill.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 16, 2016, 08:44:28 AM
Thanks realistic!  Interesting stuff.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: mds32 on November 16, 2016, 10:57:06 AM
Dino Rossi could be appointed to Andy Hill's vacant Senate Seat.

Could Rossi actually hold the seat in the special election for Republicans?
http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/dino-rossi-says-hes-willing-to-temporarily-replace-hill-in-state-senate/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on November 16, 2016, 01:35:33 PM
Dino Rossi could be appointed to Andy Hill's vacant Senate Seat.

Could Rossi actually hold the seat in the special election for Republicans?
http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/dino-rossi-says-hes-willing-to-temporarily-replace-hill-in-state-senate/

A few years ago Rossi was appointed to fill a Senate vacancy in a different district. He didn't run for the open seat then; don't see why he would now in a district that would be even harder to hold. I think he's done with politics for the most part.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 16, 2016, 01:41:51 PM
Dino Rossi could be appointed to Andy Hill's vacant Senate Seat.

Could Rossi actually hold the seat in the special election for Republicans?
http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/dino-rossi-says-hes-willing-to-temporarily-replace-hill-in-state-senate/

A few years ago Rossi was appointed to fill a Senate vacancy in a different district. He didn't run for the open seat then; don't see why he would now in a district that would be even harder to hold. I think he's done with politics for the most part.

He'd probably hold til the special and step down again. Have to imagine Goodman or Isenhower run and take it. Wonder who GOP would run if Rossi is there as placeholder - can't imagine there's another Hill out there


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 16, 2016, 02:04:39 PM
I think the only person the Rs could run and win with is King County Council member Kathy Lambert. I have no idea if she would want to, considering she left the state house for her current position.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on November 16, 2016, 03:02:46 PM
I think the only person the Rs could run and win with is King County Council member Kathy Lambert. I have no idea if she would want to, considering she left the state house for her current position.

She is substantially more conservative then Hill, so i have some doubts...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 16, 2016, 03:40:50 PM
I agree, but that's their only bench. Though I guess Hill was non-political before he ran.

Are there any precincts in Seattle with 0 votes for Trump? Probably not, but I wonder...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on November 16, 2016, 04:47:27 PM
I think the only person the Rs could run and win with is King County Council member Kathy Lambert. I have no idea if she would want to, considering she left the state house for her current position.

Probably just go with a moderate businessman and just hope Eastsiders are still willing to give Republicans a chance.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 16, 2016, 05:21:28 PM
I agree, but that's their only bench. Though I guess Hill was non-political before he ran.

Are there any precincts in Seattle with 0 votes for Trump? Probably not, but I wonder...

There's a good chance they'll have some Trump votes in the final report, but on Election Night, there were no Trump votes in Sea 37-1898 (http://www.usboundary.com/Areas/685743) in the Central District or Sea 43-1378 (http://www.usboundary.com/Areas/685592) in Wallingford.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 16, 2016, 10:25:08 PM
Write-ins in the presidential race are up to 2.75% on this site now, meaning they'll appear when you mouse over the state. :) In general, third parties/write-ins have been doing well in the "post-game."


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 17, 2016, 08:51:31 PM
Another winning batch for Clinton in Clark.  She'll very likely hold it.

Looks like Trump will be under 37% with write-ins in the final count.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 21, 2016, 11:22:27 PM
With just 22k votes left to count in the state, I think it's safe to say that there's no change in the house (+2 Ds in LD30, +1 R in LD31, +1 R in LD19) and +1 D in the senate (LD41).



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 21, 2016, 11:41:25 PM
Also, for the first time since the 1920s (?) Pacific and Grays Harbor counties voted R for governor. It's actually pretty amazing how Trump was able to drag generic R up in Southwest WA, particularly in Wahkiakum and Cowlitz.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on November 22, 2016, 12:23:33 AM
Also, for the first time since the 1920s (?) Pacific and Grays Harbor counties voted R for governor. It's actually pretty amazing how Trump was able to drag generic R up in Southwest WA, particularly in Wahkiakum and Cowlitz.

For comparison:
Grays Harbor 2014:
Derek Kilmer - 63.84%
Marty McClendon - 36.16%
Grays Harbor 2016:
Derek Kilmer - 56.55%
Todd Bloom - 43.45%

Mason 2014:
Derek Kilmer - 55.83%
Marty McClendon - 44.17%
Mason 2016:
Derek Kilmer - 52.26%
Todd Bloom - 47.74%

Clallam 2014:
Derek Kilmer - 56.82%
Marty McClendon - 43.18%
Clallam 2016:
Derek Kilmer - 55.56%
Todd Bloom - 44.44%


That huge swing in Grays Harbor, against a nobody opponent, is something to note.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 25, 2016, 12:30:47 PM
Also, for the first time since the 1920s (?) Pacific and Grays Harbor counties voted R for governor. It's actually pretty amazing how Trump was able to drag generic R up in Southwest WA, particularly in Wahkiakum and Cowlitz.

For comparison:
Grays Harbor 2014:
Derek Kilmer - 63.84%
Marty McClendon - 36.16%
Grays Harbor 2016:
Derek Kilmer - 56.55%
Todd Bloom - 43.45%

Mason 2014:
Derek Kilmer - 55.83%
Marty McClendon - 44.17%
Mason 2016:
Derek Kilmer - 52.26%
Todd Bloom - 47.74%

Clallam 2014:
Derek Kilmer - 56.82%
Marty McClendon - 43.18%
Clallam 2016:
Derek Kilmer - 55.56%
Todd Bloom - 44.44%


That huge swing in Grays Harbor, against a nobody opponent, is something to note.

Interesting that the swing wasn't bigger in the other counties, especially somewhere more reflexively conservative like Mason


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 25, 2016, 02:31:40 PM
Some thoughts on the next few years here in Washington...

Democrats have some tremendous opportunities with the 2017 elections, starting with the upcoming special to replace Andy Hill. With Trump unlikely to be popular in the Seattle suburbs this probably starts at Lean D, particularly if the GOP placeholder doesn't run.

There will also be elections for King County Council, with all 3 Republicans left up. None will be as easy to dislodge as Hague was in 2015. PvR should hang on if he chooses to run again and I have a hard time seeing Dunn go down. Still, with the trend in KC, Democrats would be idiots not to target this.

There is also the Bellevue City Council, which I *believe* still has a conservative (by Bellevue standards) majority. Seattle elections will certainly get interesting since Murray no longer has his massive approvals, though I don't know who'd be there to challenge him. I imagine both Burgess and Gonzales hang on in the at-large Council seats, though I'd support any Gonzalez challenger who took her on over the SoDo stadium and her boneheaded homeless policy.

Spokane is all defense. Amazingly, up until the 2013 City Council elections, the Spokane City Council had a 4-3 conservative majority. Now it has a 6-1 liberal majority thanks to some key wins and retirements over the last four years. I have to imagine at least one of the Council liberals looses, not that it will matter much. The big game is the Mayoral contest in 2019.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 25, 2016, 03:44:03 PM
Looking ahead to 2018, Democrats will have a chance to claw back some losses in the House and Senate. They had a great start on this with the double win in the 30th.

The 5th's two LDs will be the big one, I think. Step one for Democrats will have to be not running Darcy Burner again, or ever. I think in a Trump midterm this is doable.

A seat I personally would like to see targeted is the 6th, in Spokane. Here's why:

Popular, moderate Rep. Kevin Parker surprisingly retired. His replacement Mike Volz seems pretty moderate too but will be a freshman. Jeff Holy is probably entrenched but he definitely lacks Parker's profile in this district. The big fish here is Senator Mike Baumgardner, a staunch conservative who nevertheless plays well with others and has delivered for Spokane, most notably the WSU medical school.

This area is my old district when I lived in Spokane and it should be targeted at all levels by Democrats every year. Running moonbats like Shar Lichty is unacceptable. The district does have some rural areas west of Spokane and an AFB, but it also has the fairly center-left (educated, affluent) South hill, which is growing, as well as Cheney. It also wraps around to include North Spokane's suburbs, which tend to run a little more conservative, but these are growing quick. At the very least, the district keeps growing and has a large university. Dems need to target it - besides the 3rd, this is one of the few places we have to go on offense in Eastern WA, and Hillary did well in Spokane County. Surprisingly well.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 25, 2016, 06:00:31 PM
There are about zero offensive opportunities in EWA besides the 6th unless Latinos in the Yakima and Columbia Valleys start voting commensurate to their numbers. That said, Democrats can support independents or moderate Republicans in all-R contests to make sure that the other side has reasonable people who want to be productive in the legislature (conservatives and moderates who live in Seattle should do the same). Electing people like Maureen Walsh to the Senate is a step in this direction.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 25, 2016, 06:28:17 PM
A silver lining for Dems is that both coastal/Olympic Senate seats were up this year and we kept both even as the region swung hard towards Rs. I'm interested to see if Ds can find a good recruit to take back the 19th - maybe JD Rossetti? Why did he lose his primary as an incumbent?

Mark Miloscia is up in the 30th. Ds obviously had a great night here but who do they recruit to take on a guy like Miloscia who's got an interesting profile for an R (pro labor, pro life). I think this is the top target for the Senate, provided the 45th is won in 2017.

Is Jan Angel vulnerable? The Reps in that district need to be top tier targets too.

I think Joe Fain could be an opportunity, though he seems centrist enough for his district, and his brother is a popular radio host. This needs to be a target, but Dems shouldn't expect too much here.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on November 26, 2016, 01:12:05 AM
In addition to targeting GOP seats, Dems also need to run a strong primary challenger to Tim Sheldon.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on November 26, 2016, 01:43:43 AM
In addition to targeting GOP seats, Dems also need to run a strong primary challenger to Tim Sheldon.

In this case they risk to lose district to "real republican". Sheldon's district is far from being very liberal in it's nature..


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on November 26, 2016, 01:57:07 AM
In addition to targeting GOP seats, Dems also need to run a strong primary challenger to Tim Sheldon.

In this case they risk to lose district to "real republican". Sheldon's district is far from being very liberal in it's nature..

It's already basically in GOP hands already. Dems have nothing to lose by targeting Sheldon.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on November 26, 2016, 02:13:49 AM
In addition to targeting GOP seats, Dems also need to run a strong primary challenger to Tim Sheldon.

In this case they risk to lose district to "real republican". Sheldon's district is far from being very liberal in it's nature..

It's already basically in GOP hands already. Dems have nothing to lose by targeting Sheldon.

You think there can't be a worse Republican then Sheldon? Not sure. I heard this said many times in the South about their conservative Democrats. History has shown that to be mostly false: Republicans, who replaced these conservative Democrats, turned to be not simply worse, but - much worse.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Kingpoleon on November 26, 2016, 02:19:49 AM
In addition to targeting GOP seats, Dems also need to run a strong primary challenger to Tim Sheldon.

In this case they risk to lose district to "real republican". Sheldon's district is far from being very liberal in it's nature..

It's already basically in GOP hands already. Dems have nothing to lose by targeting Sheldon.

You think there can't be a worse Republican then Sheldon? Not sure. I heard this said many times in the South about their conservative Democrats. History has shown that to be mostly false: Republicans, who replaced these conservative Democrats, turned to be not simply worse, but - much worse.

Some of them, yes, but the Cochran-Haslam establishment types are usually the most common and almost all of them are better than their racist Democratic predecessors. For example, even saying John Boozman is worse than, say, Dale Bumpers, is a big stretch for me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on November 26, 2016, 02:32:09 AM
In addition to targeting GOP seats, Dems also need to run a strong primary challenger to Tim Sheldon.

In this case they risk to lose district to "real republican". Sheldon's district is far from being very liberal in it's nature..

It's already basically in GOP hands already. Dems have nothing to lose by targeting Sheldon.

You think there can't be a worse Republican then Sheldon? Not sure. I heard this said many times in the South about their conservative Democrats. History has shown that to be mostly false: Republicans, who replaced these conservative Democrats, turned to be not simply worse, but - much worse.

Some of them, yes, but the Cochran-Haslam establishment types are usually the most common and almost all of them are better than their racist Democratic predecessors. For example, even saying John Boozman is worse than, say, Dale Bumpers, is a big stretch for me.

And for me - unquestionably. Bumpers was a moderate liberal (position not far from my "slightly left of center"), Boozman - unoffensive, but solid conservative. I am not sure i would even prefer him over John McClellan or Ezekiel Gathings, both of whom were conservative, but cared about such parochial things as transportation and education. Many present day southern Republicans - don't.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on November 27, 2016, 09:30:32 AM
The Pierce County swing map is a lot of fun.

Democrats surged not only in North End and West Tacoma, but also UP, Fircrest, in and around Gig Harbor, DuPont, Lakeland Hills, and some scattered upscale subdevelopments.  In working-class exurban and rural areas, quite a few precincts swung 20-30% toward the Republicans.

() (https://postimg.org/image/6vl5fz8pf/)

() (https://postimg.org/image/91fgahc5v/)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 28, 2016, 11:27:18 AM
The Pierce County swing map is a lot of fun.

Democrats surged not only in North End and West Tacoma, but also UP, Fircrest, in and around Gig Harbor, DuPont, Lakeland Hills, and some scattered upscale subdevelopments.  In working-class exurban and rural areas, quite a few precincts swung 20-30% toward the Republicans.

() (https://postimg.org/image/6vl5fz8pf/)

() (https://postimg.org/image/91fgahc5v/)


Good news for Dems looking to take on Jan Angel for Senate. Bad news for hopes Dems could snatch back Puyallup area (not that I think they have anyone who could knock out Melanie Stambaugh)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on December 01, 2016, 10:59:59 AM
BTW who won Pierce CE? Haven't found anything online and that's an underrated crucial office


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 01, 2016, 12:25:16 PM
WA President (purple = write-ins):

() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/2016-WA.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on December 01, 2016, 12:26:40 PM
Bruce Dammeier won 52-48 or so. I was rooting for Talbert. :/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on December 01, 2016, 01:14:11 PM
Bruce Dammeier won 52-48 or so. I was rooting for Talbert. :/

That's too bad. I bet he'll be GOP nominee in '20. It's his potential appointments to the ST Board that should be the concern (and why I supported Tolbert)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on December 01, 2016, 02:50:11 PM
Bruce Dammeier won 52-48 or so. I was rooting for Talbert. :/

That's too bad. I bet he'll be GOP nominee in '20. It's his potential appointments to the ST Board that should be the concern (and why I supported Tolbert)

Agreed. Also, what's with the color change?

Alcon, RI, or anyone else, can you make a swing map of Skagit? I think it would look interesting.

Also RI, awesome map. Did Clinton even win Longview?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on December 01, 2016, 03:20:08 PM
Bruce Dammeier won 52-48 or so. I was rooting for Talbert. :/

That's too bad. I bet he'll be GOP nominee in '20. It's his potential appointments to the ST Board that should be the concern (and why I supported Tolbert)

Agreed. Also, what's with the color change?

Alcon, RI, or anyone else, can you make a swing map of Skagit? I think it would look interesting.

Also RI, awesome map. Did Clinton even win Longview?

I've decided I need to be less partisan and focus more on what policy I want to see be implemented, regardless of party. Also, I'm a hackish Third Way neoliberal. Not a lot of mileage for that stance anymore in the Democratic Party, particularly WA.

That said, I can't imagine voting for many WA GOP candidates in the future, especially with the demise of Eastside moderates like Litzow and McKenna over recent years.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Kingpoleon on December 01, 2016, 05:22:39 PM
Bruce Dammeier won 52-48 or so. I was rooting for Talbert. :/

That's too bad. I bet he'll be GOP nominee in '20. It's his potential appointments to the ST Board that should be the concern (and why I supported Tolbert)

Agreed. Also, what's with the color change?

Alcon, RI, or anyone else, can you make a swing map of Skagit? I think it would look interesting.

Also RI, awesome map. Did Clinton even win Longview?

I've decided I need to be less partisan and focus more on what policy I want to see be implemented, regardless of party. Also, I'm a hackish Third Way neoliberal. Not a lot of mileage for that stance anymore in the Democratic Party, particularly WA.

That said, I can't imagine voting for many WA GOP candidates in the future, especially with the demise of Eastside moderates like Litzow and McKenna over recent years.

It is very interesting to me to see how Washington regularly elects very liberal people, and Oregon elects people like Wyden and Merkley: people willing to compromise and moderate on economics.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on December 01, 2016, 06:37:47 PM
Bruce Dammeier won 52-48 or so. I was rooting for Talbert. :/

That's too bad. I bet he'll be GOP nominee in '20. It's his potential appointments to the ST Board that should be the concern (and why I supported Tolbert)

Agreed. Also, what's with the color change?

Alcon, RI, or anyone else, can you make a swing map of Skagit? I think it would look interesting.

Also RI, awesome map. Did Clinton even win Longview?

I've decided I need to be less partisan and focus more on what policy I want to see be implemented, regardless of party. Also, I'm a hackish Third Way neoliberal. Not a lot of mileage for that stance anymore in the Democratic Party, particularly WA.

That said, I can't imagine voting for many WA GOP candidates in the future, especially with the demise of Eastside moderates like Litzow and McKenna over recent years.

It is very interesting to me to see how Washington regularly elects very liberal people, and Oregon elects people like Wyden, Merkley, and Inslee: people willing to compromise and moderate on economics.

Inslee is from WA FWIW and is pretty moderate on non-climate change related issues. (I should say moderate by WA standards)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on December 01, 2016, 06:39:06 PM
Bruce Dammeier won 52-48 or so. I was rooting for Talbert. :/

That's too bad. I bet he'll be GOP nominee in '20. It's his potential appointments to the ST Board that should be the concern (and why I supported Tolbert)

Agreed. Also, what's with the color change?

Alcon, RI, or anyone else, can you make a swing map of Skagit? I think it would look interesting.

Also RI, awesome map. Did Clinton even win Longview?

I've decided I need to be less partisan and focus more on what policy I want to see be implemented, regardless of party. Also, I'm a hackish Third Way neoliberal. Not a lot of mileage for that stance anymore in the Democratic Party, particularly WA.

That said, I can't imagine voting for many WA GOP candidates in the future, especially with the demise of Eastside moderates like Litzow and McKenna over recent years.

It is very interesting to me to see how Washington regularly elects very liberal people, and Oregon elects people like Wyden, Merkley, and Inslee: people willing to compromise and moderate on economics.

I wouldn't say most of the people elected statewide are "Very liberal". I would say Jeff Merkley or Kate Brown are to the left of Murray or Cantwell who are very much establishment Dems. King County is probably the most liberal county in America, but very few Seattle progressives get elected statewide.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on December 01, 2016, 08:17:32 PM
Now that the count is final, my Seattle precincts:

Clinton: 341 (87.2%)
Trump: 37 (9.5%)
Johnson: 10 (2.6%)
Stein: 3 (.7%)

Voter turnout was very good, returned ballots: 402/425.

and my other one:

Clinton: 349 (91.4%)  LOL 95.9-4.1, in the two-way
Stein: 15 (3.9%)
Trump: 8 (2.1%)
Johnson: 7 (1.8%)
Castle: 2 (.5%)
La Riva: 1 (.3%)

Turnout is typical of a university area with a high turnover of addresses. 399/548.

It looks like that CD precinct that initially cast no votes for Trump now has him with 1 vote. That's his worst in the city.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 01, 2016, 08:38:34 PM
Lowest % Trump by town
1. Nespelem - 8.06%
2. Mattawa - 8.39%*
3. Seattle - 8.44%
4. Langley - 12.20%
5. Mabton - 13.46%
6. Wapato - 13.61%
7. Port Townsend - 14.25%
8. Bainbridge Island - 14.36%
9. Lake Forest Park - 16.73%
10. Shoreline - 17.99%
11. Bellingham - 18.80%
12. Toppenish - 20.55%
13. Tukwila - 20.83%
14. Olympia - 20.94%*
15. Redmond - 21.14%
16. Mercer Island - 21.54%
17. Mountlake Terrace - 22.52%
18. Kenmore - 22.92%
19. Pullman - 23.42%*
20. Kirkland - 23.99%
21. Burien - 24.05%
22. Granger - 24.29%
23. Bellevue - 24.58%
24. Issaquah - 25.35%
25. Renton - 25.51%

Areas in (*) I still don't have write-in totals for, so I'll update as I do.

The Clinton list is mostly a bunch of tiny places you've barely heard of, but the very lowest showing was tiny Hatton in Adams County (2/28, not including write-ins).  The largest of any real size was Lynden, which was 65.65%-23.50% Trump (actually not an amazing performance for him).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on December 01, 2016, 11:19:08 PM
With Redmond and surrounding area giving Trump 21-24% it's amazing that Litzow surpassed 48%. I rooted for him (i usually root for moderate Republicans in blue states, where there are more then enough elected Democrats) and he has shown himself being very strong. But this was simply too much


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Kingpoleon on December 01, 2016, 11:35:59 PM
Bruce Dammeier won 52-48 or so. I was rooting for Talbert. :/

That's too bad. I bet he'll be GOP nominee in '20. It's his potential appointments to the ST Board that should be the concern (and why I supported Tolbert)

Agreed. Also, what's with the color change?

Alcon, RI, or anyone else, can you make a swing map of Skagit? I think it would look interesting.

Also RI, awesome map. Did Clinton even win Longview?

I've decided I need to be less partisan and focus more on what policy I want to see be implemented, regardless of party. Also, I'm a hackish Third Way neoliberal. Not a lot of mileage for that stance anymore in the Democratic Party, particularly WA.

That said, I can't imagine voting for many WA GOP candidates in the future, especially with the demise of Eastside moderates like Litzow and McKenna over recent years.

It is very interesting to me to see how Washington regularly elects very liberal people, and Oregon elects people like Wyden, Merkley, and Inslee: people willing to compromise and moderate on economics.

Inslee is from WA FWIW and is pretty moderate on non-climate change related issues. (I should say moderate by WA standards)

Yeah, oops. I was mistaken. There are plenty of moderate Republicans in Washington, though:

Gubernatorial: Rossi(2004 & 2008), McKenna(2012)
Senatorial: Rossi(2010), Vance(2016)

Even McGavick was pretty moderate.

Finally, all three of your Republican congressmen and congresswomen are to the left of even people like Kasich, and probably at least as centrist as Sandoval.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on December 02, 2016, 12:05:49 AM
Bruce Dammeier won 52-48 or so. I was rooting for Talbert. :/

That's too bad. I bet he'll be GOP nominee in '20. It's his potential appointments to the ST Board that should be the concern (and why I supported Tolbert)

Agreed. Also, what's with the color change?

Alcon, RI, or anyone else, can you make a swing map of Skagit? I think it would look interesting.

Also RI, awesome map. Did Clinton even win Longview?

I've decided I need to be less partisan and focus more on what policy I want to see be implemented, regardless of party. Also, I'm a hackish Third Way neoliberal. Not a lot of mileage for that stance anymore in the Democratic Party, particularly WA.

That said, I can't imagine voting for many WA GOP candidates in the future, especially with the demise of Eastside moderates like Litzow and McKenna over recent years.

It is very interesting to me to see how Washington regularly elects very liberal people, and Oregon elects people like Wyden, Merkley, and Inslee: people willing to compromise and moderate on economics.

Inslee is from WA FWIW and is pretty moderate on non-climate change related issues. (I should say moderate by WA standards)

Yeah, oops. I was mistaken. There are plenty of moderate Republicans in Washington, though:

Gubernatorial: Rossi(2004 & 2008), McKenna(2012)
Senatorial: Rossi(2010), Vance(2016)

Even McGavick was pretty moderate.

Finally, all three of your Republican congressmen and congresswomen are to the left of even people like Kasich, and probably at least as centrist as Sandoval.

Four GOP Congresspeople. And Rodgers and Newhouse are "mainstream" Republicans, but that doesn't necessarily make them moderates. These days, any GOPer who isn't a total firebrand gets labeled as being a moderate.


The problem with the WA GOP is that while there are plenty of moderate Republicans in King, Pierce, Snohomish, ect. that the state party picks to run statewide, the majority of Republicans in the state are from Eastern Washington. And it's the Eastern Washington GOP that rules the caucus, and sets the party's agenda, which tends to be decidedly NOT moderate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on December 02, 2016, 12:14:29 AM
Any ideas of Hill replacement? I know about number of Democrats, who plan to run when it will become possible, but in this case Republicans are of bigger interest to me. And, given that Hill was one of the most moderate (at least - on social issues) Republicans in state Senate, a replacement must be of the same sort (if, of course, Republicas care about majority)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 02, 2016, 03:43:38 PM
Here's a quick, somewhat crude attempt at a presidential swing map:

() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/WA-Swing-1216.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 02, 2016, 05:30:44 PM
^ That is fantastic.  Possible to post zooms in on the Seattle metro, Vancouver, Spokane, and the Tri-Cities?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 02, 2016, 07:05:26 PM
^ That is fantastic.  Possible to post zooms in on the Seattle metro, Vancouver, Spokane, and the Tri-Cities?

I tidied up the map a bit by using 2012 lines in some cases.

Seattle metro:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Seattle-Metro-Swing.png)

Spokane:
() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_02_12_16_7_00_52.png)

Tri-Cities:
() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_02_12_16_7_04_15.png)

Vancouver:
() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_02_12_16_7_02_26.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 02, 2016, 08:32:13 PM
so sexy


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on December 04, 2016, 01:00:46 AM
Clinton ran up the numbers so much in eastern King County. I doubt there will ever again be so much polarization between King County and the rest of the state. Also, did Johnson win a few precincts in the Yakima Valley?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcon on December 04, 2016, 02:21:56 AM
Clinton ran up the numbers so much in eastern King County. I doubt there will ever again be so much polarization between King County and the rest of the state. Also, did Johnson win a few precincts in the Yakima Valley?

He won three small precincts in Benton County -- two of them 2-0, and one of them 2-1 over Trump.  "Write-in" also won two precincts, one in Benton County (4-1 over Trump) and a one-vote precinct in Yakima County.  A lot of them are coincidentally clustered in same general part of the middle of nowhere.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on December 05, 2016, 01:28:49 PM
Clinton ran up the numbers so much in eastern King County. I doubt there will ever again be so much polarization between King County and the rest of the state. Also, did Johnson win a few precincts in the Yakima Valley?

He won three small precincts in Benton County -- two of them 2-0, and one of them 2-1 over Trump.  "Write-in" also won two precincts, one in Benton County (4-1 over Trump) and a one-vote precinct in Yakima County.  A lot of them are coincidentally clustered in same general part of the middle of nowhere.

Awesome. Any chance you have a link to the raw data for this map?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on December 06, 2016, 12:36:19 AM
Dino Rossi has been appointed to serve out the rest of Hill's term. However he is explicitly not running for reelection in 2018.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 06, 2016, 01:02:38 AM
Results by CD for downballot statewide races:

Senate
WA-01: Murray 56.3, Vance 43.7
WA-02: Murray 61.3, Vance 38.7
WA-03: Vance 50.5, Murray 49.5
WA-04: Vance 55.8, Murray 44.2
WA-05: Vance 52.2, Murray 47.8
WA-06: Murray 58.2, Vance 41.8
WA-07: Murray 82.6, Vance 17.4
WA-08: Murray 51.7, Vance 48.3
WA-09: Murray 72.1, Vance 27.9
WA-10: Murray 57.7, Vance 42.3

Governor
WA-01: Inslee 51.3, Bryant 48.7
WA-02: Inslee 56.8, Bryant 43.2
WA-03: Bryant 54.9, Inslee 45.1
WA-04: Bryant 60.2, Inslee 39.8
WA-05: Bryant 56.0, Inslee 44.0
WA-06: Inslee 53.8, Bryant 46.2
WA-07: Inslee 78.3, Bryant 21.7
WA-08: Bryant 53.7, Inslee 46.3
WA-09: Inslee 67.2, Bryant 32.8
WA-10: Inslee 52.5, Bryant 47.5

Lt. Governor
WA-01: Habib 53.2, McClendon 46.8
WA-02: Habib 57.8, McClendon 42.2
WA-03: McClendon 55.7, Habib 44.3
WA-04: McClendon 64.2, Habib 35.8
WA-05: McClendon 59.3, Habib 40.7
WA-06: Habib 53.3, McClendon 46.7
WA-07: Habib 80.8, McClendon 19.2
WA-08: McClendon 53.6, Habib 46.4
WA-09: Habib 69.0, McClendon 31.0
WA-10: Habib 52.6, McClendon 47.4

Secretary of State
WA-01: Wyman 57.7, Podlodowski 42.3
WA-02: Wyman 51.2, Podlodowski 48.8
WA-03: Wyman 62.8, Podlodowski 37.2
WA-04: Wyman 70.0, Podlodowski 30.0
WA-05: Wyman 65.4, Podlodowski 34.6
WA-06: Wyman 55.5, Podlodowski 44.5
WA-07: Podlodowski 69.5, Wyman 30.5
WA-08: Wyman 62.2, Podlodowski 37.8
WA-09: Podlodowski 58.1, Wyman 41.9
WA-10: Wyman 59.0, Podlodowski 41.0

Treasurer
WA-01: Davidson 57.0, Waite 43.0
WA-02: Davidson 56.9, Waite 43.1
WA-03: Davidson 56.3, Waite 43.7
WA-04: Davidson 61.5, Waite 38.5
WA-05: Davidson 58.6, Waite 41.4
WA-06: Davidson 54.7, Waite 45.3
WA-07: Davidson 65.7, Waite 34.3
WA-08: Davidson 56.0, Waite 44.0
WA-09: Davidson 58.6, Waite 41.4
WA-10: Davidson 55.5, Waite 44.5

Auditor
WA-01: Miloscia 51.7, McCarthy 48.3
WA-02: McCarthy 55.3, Miloscia 44.7
WA-03: Miloscia 55.1, McCarthy 44.9
WA-04: Miloscia 61.8, McCarthy 38.2
WA-05: Miloscia 58.0, McCarthy 42.0
WA-06: McCarthy 53.0, Miloscia 47.0
WA-07: McCarthy 74.4, Miloscia 25.6
WA-08: Miloscia 56.1, McCarthy 43.9
WA-09: McCarthy 62.8, Miloscia 37.2
WA-10: McCarthy 52.9, Miloscia 47.1

Attorney General
WA-01: Ferguson 65.2, Trumbull 34.8
WA-02: Ferguson 68.4, Trumbull 31.6
WA-03: Ferguson 59.3, Trumbull 40.7
WA-04: Ferguson 56.3, Trumbull 43.7
WA-05: Ferguson 56.5, Trumbull 43.5
WA-06: Ferguson 66.1, Trumbull 33.9
WA-07: Ferguson 85.6, Trumbull 14.4
WA-08: Ferguson 62.8, Trumbull 37.2
WA-09: Ferguson 77.7, Trumbull 22.3
WA-10: Ferguson 66.3, Trumbull 33.7

CPL
WA-01: Franz 51.0, McLaughlin 49.0
WA-02: Franz 56.1, McLaughlin 43.9
WA-03: McLaughlin 55.9, Franz 44.1
WA-04: McLaughlin 65.8, Franz 34.2
WA-05: McLaughlin 61.3, Franz 38.7
WA-06: Franz 52.2, McLaughlin 47.8
WA-07: Franz 80.5, McLaughlin 19.5
WA-08: McLaughlin 54.4, Franz 45.6
WA-09: Franz 67.8, McLaughlin 32.2
WA-10: Franz 51.5, McLaughlin 48.5

SPI
WA-01: Reykdal 50.3, Jones 49.7
WA-02: Jones 52.2, Reykdal 47.8
WA-03: Reykdal 50.3, Jones 49.7
WA-04: Reykdal 50.3, Jones 49.7
WA-05: Jones 51.3, Reykdal 48.7
WA-06: Jones 50.8, Reykdal 49.2
WA-07: Reykdal 56.6, Jones 43.4
WA-08: Reykdal 50.4, Jones 49.6
WA-09: Jones 52.8, Reykdal 47.2
WA-10: Reykdal 52.6, Jones 47.4

Insurance Commissioner
WA-01: Kreidler 56.1, Schrock 43.9
WA-02: Kreidler 60.7, Schrock 39.3
WA-03: Schrock 51.9, Kreidler 48.1
WA-04: Schrock 59.0, Kreidler 41.0
WA-05: Schrock 55.4, Kreidler 44.6
WA-06: Kreidler 58.3, Schrock 41.7
WA-07: Kreidler 83.1, Schrock 16.9
WA-08: Kreidler 51.4, Schrock 48.6
WA-09: Kreidler 72.3, Schrock 27.7
WA-10: Kreidler 58.9, Schrock 41.1


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 06, 2016, 01:14:05 AM
I-1433
WA-01: Yes 55.7, No 44.3
WA-02: Yes 61.1, No 38.9
WA-03: Yes 51.7, No 48.3
WA-04: No 58.8, Yes 41.2
WA-05: No 57.4, Yes 42.6
WA-06: Yes 57.4, No 42.6
WA-07: Yes 77.6, No 22.4
WA-08: Yes 52.2, No 47.8
WA-09: Yes 70.0, No 30.0
WA-10: Yes 57.1, No 42.9

I-1464
WA-01: No 56.8, Yes 43.2
WA-02: No 50.7, Yes 49.3
WA-03: No 61.5, Yes 38.5
WA-04: No 63.7, Yes 36.3
WA-05: No 59.4, Yes 40.6
WA-06: No 52.8, Yes 47.2
WA-07: Yes 61.1, No 38.9
WA-08: No 57.6, Yes 42.4
WA-09: Yes 52.5, No 47.5
WA-10: No 53.7, Yes 46.3

I-1491
WA-01: Yes 69.1, No 30.9
WA-02: Yes 71.7, No 28.3
WA-03: Yes 60.1, No 39.9
WA-04: Yes 54.9, No 45.1
WA-05: Yes 59.3, No 40.7
WA-06: Yes 68.4, No 31.6
WA-07: Yes 87.3, No 12.7
WA-08: Yes 66.4, No 33.6
WA-09: Yes 80.4, No 19.6
WA-10: Yes 68.5, No 31.5

I-1501
WA-01: Yes 68.2, No 31.8
WA-02: Yes 74.0, No 26.0
WA-03: Yes 72.4, No 27.6
WA-04: Yes 69.6, No 30.4
WA-05: Yes 70.2, No 29.8
WA-06: Yes 74.8, No 25.2
WA-07: Yes 61.5, No 38.5
WA-08: Yes 72.0, No 28.0
WA-09: Yes 70.6, No 29.4
WA-10: Yes 75.8, No 24.2

I-732
WA-01: No 60.1, Yes 39.9
WA-02: No 55.9, Yes 44.1
WA-03: No 67.0, Yes 33.0
WA-04: No 70.4, Yes 29.6
WA-05: No 68.4, Yes 31.6
WA-06: No 60.5, Yes 39.5
WA-07: Yes 59.5, No 40.5
WA-08: No 64.6, Yes 35.4
WA-09: No 50.3, Yes 49.7
WA-10: No 61.4, Yes 38.6

I-735
WA-01: Yes 60.1, No 39.9
WA-02: Yes 66.3, No 33.7
WA-03: Yes 58.3, No 41.7
WA-04: Yes 51.7, No 48.3
WA-05: Yes 54.9, No 45.1
WA-06: Yes 64.7, No 35.3
WA-07: Yes 77.3, No 22.7
WA-08: Yes 57.3, No 42.7
WA-09: Yes 69.1, No 30.9
WA-10: Yes 62.5, No 37.5


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on December 06, 2016, 01:20:28 AM
Excellent result for Wyman: 7th and 9th are unwinnable for anyone with (R) label (be it the God Almighty himself), so - maximum of possible...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on December 06, 2016, 12:20:08 PM
Dino Rossi has been appointed to serve out the rest of Hill's term. However he is explicitly not running for reelection in 2018.

I believe the special is in 2017, though I may be wrong.

Either way, I rate it Lean D pending the candidates


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on December 06, 2016, 01:04:14 PM
Excellent result for Wyman: 7th and 9th are unwinnable for anyone with (R) label (be it the God Almighty himself), so - maximum of possible...

She also won every county except King, San Juan, and Jefferson.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 06, 2016, 01:19:52 PM
Precinct maps incoming! I'm just going to link to them as the page would probably overload otherwise:

US Senator (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/16-WA-Sen.png)
Governor (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/16-WA-Gov.png)
Lt. Governor (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/16-WA-LtGov.png)
Secretary of State (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/16-WA-SoS.png)
State Treasurer (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/16-WA-Treas.png) (Blue is Davidson)
State Auditor (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/16-WA-Aud.png)
Attorney General (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/16-WA-AG.png)
Commissioner of Public Lands (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/16-WA-CPL.png)
Superintendent of Public Instruction (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/16-WA-SPI-Inv.png) (Purple is Reykdal)
Insurance Commissioner (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/16-WA-IC.png)
WA-01 (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/16-WA-US1.png)
WA-02 (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/16-WA-US2.png)
WA-03 (need to fix this one)
WA-04 (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/16-WA-US4.png)
WA-05 (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/16-WA-US5.png)
WA-06 (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/16-WA-US6.png)
WA-07 (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/16-WA-US7.png) (Red is Jayapal)
WA-08 (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/16-WA-US8.png)
WA-09 (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/16-WA-US9.png)
WA-10 (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/16-WA-US10.png)

Initiative maps will be in a subsequent post.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on December 06, 2016, 01:40:05 PM
Excellent result for Wyman: 7th and 9th are unwinnable for anyone with (R) label (be it the God Almighty himself), so - maximum of possible...

She also won every county except King, San Juan, and Jefferson.

Well, reasonable moderate can still be popular))). And, IIRC, she got more then 40% in King - by present standards an outstanding achievement (i know exactly 1 Republican who wins King countywide). But i doubt she will run for any other post. SoS is a good fit (as office) for her as it was for her predecessor (and mentor) Reed..


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on December 06, 2016, 02:04:07 PM
Dino Rossi has been appointed to serve out the rest of Hill's term. However he is explicitly not running for reelection in 2018.

I believe the special is in 2017, though I may be wrong.

Either way, I rate it Lean D pending the candidates

You are right- it is in 2017. The Ds should gain control of the Senate then. It'll be (23+1) - 25?

RI, amazing maps!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on December 06, 2016, 03:54:42 PM
Dino Rossi has been appointed to serve out the rest of Hill's term. However he is explicitly not running for reelection in 2018.

I believe the special is in 2017, though I may be wrong.

Either way, I rate it Lean D pending the candidates

You are right- it is in 2017. The Ds should gain control of the Senate then. It'll be (23+1) - 25?

RI, amazing maps!

The 2018 map is pretty much all offensive opportunities too, especially after some disappointments this year. Angel, Fain and Baumgardner I imagine are the top targets


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on December 06, 2016, 04:18:25 PM
That SPI map is pretty crazy. Is there any discernable pattern apart from Jones doing well in Native American areas?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on December 06, 2016, 04:56:33 PM
That SPI map is pretty crazy. Is there any discernable pattern apart from Jones doing well in Native American areas?

Seattle going against Jones was probably due to Jones' questionable stance on LGBT matters, which caused The Stranger to un-endorse her. It also seems like Republicans largely backed Rekydal, I guess because if you look at the two candidates side-by-side, you'd guess Rekydal to be the more conservative one.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on December 07, 2016, 09:00:34 PM
That SPI map is pretty crazy. Is there any discernable pattern apart from Jones doing well in Native American areas?

Seattle going against Jones was probably due to Jones' questionable stance on LGBT matters, which caused The Stranger to un-endorse her. It also seems like Republicans largely backed Rekydal, I guess because if you look at the two candidates side-by-side, you'd guess Rekydal to be the more conservative one.

Yes, I'm sure that is why.   Or could it perhaps have to do with looking at the two pictures in the voters pamphlet and making a choice based on that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on December 07, 2016, 09:09:10 PM
That SPI map is pretty crazy. Is there any discernable pattern apart from Jones doing well in Native American areas?

Seattle going against Jones was probably due to Jones' questionable stance on LGBT matters, which caused The Stranger to un-endorse her. It also seems like Republicans largely backed Rekydal, I guess because if you look at the two candidates side-by-side, you'd guess Rekydal to be the more conservative one.

Yes, I'm sure that is why.   Or could it perhaps have to do with looking at the two pictures in the voters pamphlet and making a choice based on that.

That's basically what I'm saying.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on December 09, 2016, 12:43:30 PM
Cathy getting tapped for Interior will create some interesting jockeying in Spokane. I picked the wrong time to move back to seattle apparently :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Heisenberg on December 09, 2016, 12:50:56 PM
Cathy getting tapped for Interior will create some interesting jockeying in Spokane. I picked the wrong time to move back to seattle apparently :P
Who do you think will run for the seat? Michael Baumgartner is a State Senator from Spokane and he ran for US Senate four years ago and is pretty young. He seems like someone with ambition, but is he a little too far right? He got crushed in the western part of the state, but did well in WA-05, so he'd probably have the name rec.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on December 09, 2016, 12:58:08 PM
Cathy getting tapped for Interior will create some interesting jockeying in Spokane. I picked the wrong time to move back to seattle apparently :P
Who do you think will run for the seat? Michael Baumgartner is a State Senator from Spokane and he ran for US Senate four years ago and is pretty young. He seems like someone with ambition, but is he a little too far right? He got crushed in the western part of the state, but did well in WA-05, so he'd probably have the name rec.

Baumgardner would be the GOP's best, though former Rep Kevin Parker was thought of as the heir for a long time before he unexpectedly retired. Parker was VERY impressive - a real leader, pragmatic, and he spoke with my wife's social work class. She had nothing but good things to say. He'd be impossible for a Democrat to beat.

Baumgardner is very polarizing and he's an odd fit for a very CoC district with a college town, but he's "old Spokane." (Went to Gonzaga Prep HS, tied in with the families that really run the place, close with Mayor Condon). For someone as right wing as him he's a surprisingly effective legislator and was a real leader in getting the new medical school in Spokane and has a great relationship with the 3rd LD's Democrats in both Houses. He'd be formidable.

Really, the big move here would be possibly targeting his Senate seat if he wins the promotion. I imagine he has right of first refusal after being the sacrificial lamb against Cantwell. His Senate district (I lived there and voted against him in '14 while voting for Parker and Holy) is winnable without him in the seat.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on December 09, 2016, 01:01:27 PM
Ugh, I hope not. I'm no big fan of McMorris-Rodgers, but she was always competent. I don't like Baumgartner. If he doesn't run, does Parker?

Pakootas again for the Ds?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 09, 2016, 01:05:26 PM
I'd probably vote for Baumgartner if he ran. Pakootas is okay, but he'll never win this district.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on December 09, 2016, 01:07:37 PM
Ugh, I hope not. I'm no big fan of McMorris-Rodgers, but she was always competent. I don't like Baumgartner. If he doesn't run, does Parker?

Pakootas again for the Ds?

Cathy is very competent, and very well liked in district. Good constituent services and good on issues that matter to the area (in particular hydro). Parker would be an upgrade in many ways, but I doubt he runs, especially if Baumgartner does. Sadly. Baumgartner is a hack

Pakootas needs to stay away. One of the three from LD3 could be competitive. Billig wouldn't have to give up his seat.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on December 09, 2016, 01:19:40 PM
Sounds like City Council President Ben Stuckart is in. This is not good for Democrats, he's a polarizing figure in Spokane. Widely thought of as the next Mayor.

A candidate I forgot who would be formidable: Sheriff Ozzie Knezovich. GOP, like all countywide officers, but he's smart and competent, and has been on the leading edge of fighting militia types in the local area. He would have my support out of all Republican candidates here


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on December 09, 2016, 01:28:38 PM
Should add: highly unlikely Nethercutt runs again. Very nice man - only politician I've ever met - but he's out of the game


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on December 11, 2016, 04:37:56 PM
How did I know who wrote this bill before I even read the story? (https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/dec/11/seattle-seahawks-stadium-guns-proposed-bill-firearms)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on December 11, 2016, 05:02:05 PM
How did I know who wrote this bill before I even read the story? (https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/dec/11/seattle-seahawks-stadium-guns-proposed-bill-firearms)

Matt Shea is insane, news at 11


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on December 12, 2016, 07:51:46 PM
Rebecca Saldaña chosen to replace Jayapal in the LD37. I believe she works for the Puget Sound Sage and comes from a similar background as Jayapal, social activism (environmental/equity vs. immigration).

She'll face fierce competition come the special/election time.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on January 28, 2017, 05:00:55 PM
WA Dems are voting on party chair. The main candidates are incumbent Jaxon Ravens and 2016 Secretary of State nominee Tina Podlodowski.

Ravens has been in office since 2014, and is facing criticism over Dems inability to win legislative majorities in a state that should favor them. Ravens stayed neutral in the Sanders/Clinton fight all the way up until the convention.

Podlodowski, a lesbian daughter of Polish immigrants, has held various government positions over the years, often leaving abruptly. Despite endorsing Hillary over Bernie in 2016, she's gotten a lot of Sanders supporters backing her candidacy. Her main criticism of Ravens is that under his leadership, Democrats have failed to recruit and back candidates outside of the Seattle metro area. She says she would try to compete in every county, and open up more offices east of the Cascades.

Roughly 2/3 of the state party's central committee members have been replaced over the past two months by challengers. Doesn't bode well for Ravens.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on January 28, 2017, 05:54:48 PM
Did Hillary end up winning Walla Walla?  I heard she was leading at some point before all the votes were counted. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: andrew_c on January 28, 2017, 07:07:42 PM
Did Hillary end up winning Walla Walla?  I heard she was leading at some point before all the votes were counted. 

Trump won Walla Walla County 52%-37%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on January 29, 2017, 12:27:13 AM
Ravens lost. Dude was always a dick when I emailed them.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on January 29, 2017, 02:53:39 AM
Did Hillary end up winning Walla Walla?  I heard she was leading at some point before all the votes were counted.  

I wouldn't be surprised if she won Walla Walla proper, even if she lost the county as a whole.

Ravens lost. Dude was always a dick when I emailed them.

How so?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on January 29, 2017, 03:25:42 AM
Ravens lost. Dude was always a dick when I emailed them.

You can't have the name Jaxon Ravens and NOT be a huge douchebag.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on January 29, 2017, 11:20:50 AM

I emailed the state party a few times looking for caucus data, and when I reached him, he basically said I was wasting my time as the data was pointless anyway. Never gotten that type of response before or since.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on January 31, 2017, 10:43:47 PM
Somewhat old news, but State Sen. Mark Miloscia recently took to Facebook (In a now-deleted post) to call Women's March protests "Ugly, unAmerican, and unChristian protest activities." (http://www.thestranger.com/slog/2017/01/24/24819335/the-morning-news-federal-way-lawmaker-calls-womens-marches-unamerican-and-unchristian)

Miloscia is up for re-election in 2018, in a district that by my estimates Clinton got around 60% of the vote in, and one that just threw out the two moderate Republicans who represented the district in Olympia. Call it a hunch, but I don't think Miloscia survives the next midterm.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on February 01, 2017, 01:08:30 AM
Somewhat old news, but State Sen. Mark Miloscia recently took to Facebook (In a now-deleted post) to call Women's March protests "Ugly, unAmerican, and unChristian protest activities." (http://www.thestranger.com/slog/2017/01/24/24819335/the-morning-news-federal-way-lawmaker-calls-womens-marches-unamerican-and-unchristian)

Miloscia is up for re-election in 2018, in a district that by my estimates Clinton got around 60% of the vote in, and one that just threw out the two moderate Republicans who represented the district in Olympia. Call it a hunch, but I don't think Miloscia survives the next midterm.

Using the term from Vietnam-war period - Miloscia always seemed to me to be "a hard hat-type Democrat", who marched in "patriotic marches" supporting the war in that time (building union members, and their likes). Essentially - he remains that way, despite changing "D" on "R" recently. So - not so big surprizes, he remains very "loyal" to power, very "patriotic" and so on.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on February 01, 2017, 01:55:32 AM
Somewhat old news, but State Sen. Mark Miloscia recently took to Facebook (In a now-deleted post) to call Women's March protests "Ugly, unAmerican, and unChristian protest activities." (http://www.thestranger.com/slog/2017/01/24/24819335/the-morning-news-federal-way-lawmaker-calls-womens-marches-unamerican-and-unchristian)

Miloscia is up for re-election in 2018, in a district that by my estimates Clinton got around 60% of the vote in, and one that just threw out the two moderate Republicans who represented the district in Olympia. Call it a hunch, but I don't think Miloscia survives the next midterm.

Using the term from Vietnam-war period - Miloscia always seemed to me to be "a hard hat-type Democrat", who marched in "patriotic marches" supporting the war in that time (building union members, and their likes). Essentially - he remains that way, despite changing "D" on "R" recently. So - not so big surprizes, he remains very "loyal" to power, very "patriotic" and so on.

He's also a massive social conservative, which is what caused his party switch. (That and him being butthurt over not getting to be State Auditor).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on February 01, 2017, 03:48:48 AM
Somewhat old news, but State Sen. Mark Miloscia recently took to Facebook (In a now-deleted post) to call Women's March protests "Ugly, unAmerican, and unChristian protest activities." (http://www.thestranger.com/slog/2017/01/24/24819335/the-morning-news-federal-way-lawmaker-calls-womens-marches-unamerican-and-unchristian)

Miloscia is up for re-election in 2018, in a district that by my estimates Clinton got around 60% of the vote in, and one that just threw out the two moderate Republicans who represented the district in Olympia. Call it a hunch, but I don't think Miloscia survives the next midterm.

Using the term from Vietnam-war period - Miloscia always seemed to me to be "a hard hat-type Democrat", who marched in "patriotic marches" supporting the war in that time (building union members, and their likes). Essentially - he remains that way, despite changing "D" on "R" recently. So - not so big surprizes, he remains very "loyal" to power, very "patriotic" and so on.

He's also a massive social conservative, which is what caused his party switch. (That and him being butthurt over not getting to be State Auditor).

Yeah, but there is another (and even more conservative) state Senator of this sort in Washington, who, by some reasons, prefers to stay Democrat (at least - nominally).....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on February 01, 2017, 01:33:47 PM
Honestly, what he does is just for power. By becoming that decisive vote, he's been able to have way more influence since, what 2010, than if he was some D-caucusing member.

Though that's going to end in 2018, I think. With both better than 50% odds of picking up Hill's vacant seat and Miloscia's. Does Sheldon switch parties?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on February 01, 2017, 03:35:49 PM
Honestly, what he does is just for power. By becoming that decisive vote, he's been able to have way more influence since, what 2010, than if he was some D-caucusing member.

Though that's going to end in 2018, I think. With both better than 50% odds of picking up Hill's vacant seat and Miloscia's. Does Sheldon switch parties?

Who knows? So far his main task was to get into "top 2". Then he can beat his Democratic opponent with Republican votes (if his opponent in General will be Democrat) or his Republican (and even more conservative) opponent (if he has one) with enough Democratic votes. So far it was a winning strategy...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on February 01, 2017, 04:16:22 PM
Has it been confirmed that Baumgardner is taking a job in DC? I know Dansel is gone (big surprise) but was this just a rumor?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on February 01, 2017, 07:41:25 PM
Honestly, what he does is just for power. By becoming that decisive vote, he's been able to have way more influence since, what 2010, than if he was some D-caucusing member.

Though that's going to end in 2018, I think. With both better than 50% odds of picking up Hill's vacant seat and Miloscia's. Does Sheldon switch parties?

No reason to be in the "Majority Coalition Caucus" if it doesn't get you a majority. Letting a complete traitor back into the caucus might make some Democrats wince, but there's probably no other Democrat who can both primary Sheldon and hold the seat.

I agree that the State Senate is definitely Lean D at this point. D's have almost no vulnerable LD's up for grabs this cycle, and Republicans have to defend the 45th and the 30th, and maybe even the 6th, 26th, or 47th if Democrats get serious.

Has it been confirmed that Baumgardner is taking a job in DC? I know Dansel is gone (big surprise) but was this just a rumor?

Has a temporary EPA transition job, which might develop into a full-time position. Same with Erickson.

Erickson, asshole that he is, is currently annoying his Republican colleagues by splitting time between his EPA job and his legislative duties. And with a tied Senate, votes are often being put on hold until Erickson flies back from DC.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on February 02, 2017, 07:06:24 PM
Eastern WA had its coldest January in nearly 40 years. (http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2017/feb/02/coldest-january-since-1979-sets-the-stage-for-new-/) It sucks over here. :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on February 02, 2017, 08:57:59 PM
Eastern WA had its coldest January in nearly 40 years. (http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2017/feb/02/coldest-january-since-1979-sets-the-stage-for-new-/) It sucks over here. :(

That's what I've been hearing from my sister in law. Glad I moved back to Seattle!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on February 03, 2017, 11:49:28 AM
Honestly, what he does is just for power. By becoming that decisive vote, he's been able to have way more influence since, what 2010, than if he was some D-caucusing member.

Though that's going to end in 2018, I think. With both better than 50% odds of picking up Hill's vacant seat and Miloscia's. Does Sheldon switch parties?

No reason to be in the "Majority Coalition Caucus" if it doesn't get you a majority. Letting a complete traitor back into the caucus might make some Democrats wince, but there's probably no other Democrat who can both primary Sheldon and hold the seat.

I agree that the State Senate is definitely Lean D at this point. D's have almost no vulnerable LD's up for grabs this cycle, and Republicans have to defend the 45th and the 30th, and maybe even the 6th, 26th, or 47th if Democrats get serious.

Has it been confirmed that Baumgardner is taking a job in DC? I know Dansel is gone (big surprise) but was this just a rumor?

Has a temporary EPA transition job, which might develop into a full-time position. Same with Erickson.

Erickson, asshole that he is, is currently annoying his Republican colleagues by splitting time between his EPA job and his legislative duties. And with a tied Senate, votes are often being put on hold until Erickson flies back from DC.

Is Ben curious to hear an analysis on House and Senate  races in 18 from you


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on February 04, 2017, 02:36:17 AM
Honestly, what he does is just for power. By becoming that decisive vote, he's been able to have way more influence since, what 2010, than if he was some D-caucusing member.

Though that's going to end in 2018, I think. With both better than 50% odds of picking up Hill's vacant seat and Miloscia's. Does Sheldon switch parties?

No reason to be in the "Majority Coalition Caucus" if it doesn't get you a majority. Letting a complete traitor back into the caucus might make some Democrats wince, but there's probably no other Democrat who can both primary Sheldon and hold the seat.

I agree that the State Senate is definitely Lean D at this point. D's have almost no vulnerable LD's up for grabs this cycle, and Republicans have to defend the 45th and the 30th, and maybe even the 6th, 26th, or 47th if Democrats get serious.

Has it been confirmed that Baumgardner is taking a job in DC? I know Dansel is gone (big surprise) but was this just a rumor?

Has a temporary EPA transition job, which might develop into a full-time position. Same with Erickson.

Erickson, asshole that he is, is currently annoying his Republican colleagues by splitting time between his EPA job and his legislative duties. And with a tied Senate, votes are often being put on hold until Erickson flies back from DC.

Is Ben curious to hear an analysis on House and Senate  races in 18 from you

Federal or State House/Senate races?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on February 04, 2017, 04:00:33 AM
Opinion: Joe Fain looks like the Angry Video Game Nerd


()()




Discuss


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: mds32 on February 04, 2017, 11:11:26 AM
Honestly, what he does is just for power. By becoming that decisive vote, he's been able to have way more influence since, what 2010, than if he was some D-caucusing member.

Though that's going to end in 2018, I think. With both better than 50% odds of picking up Hill's vacant seat and Miloscia's. Does Sheldon switch parties?

No reason to be in the "Majority Coalition Caucus" if it doesn't get you a majority. Letting a complete traitor back into the caucus might make some Democrats wince, but there's probably no other Democrat who can both primary Sheldon and hold the seat.

I agree that the State Senate is definitely Lean D at this point. D's have almost no vulnerable LD's up for grabs this cycle, and Republicans have to defend the 45th and the 30th, and maybe even the 6th, 26th, or 47th if Democrats get serious.

Has it been confirmed that Baumgardner is taking a job in DC? I know Dansel is gone (big surprise) but was this just a rumor?

Has a temporary EPA transition job, which might develop into a full-time position. Same with Erickson.

Erickson, asshole that he is, is currently annoying his Republican colleagues by splitting time between his EPA job and his legislative duties. And with a tied Senate, votes are often being put on hold until Erickson flies back from DC.

Could the GOP, however, manage to take the State House of Representatives while losing the Senate?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on February 04, 2017, 01:11:14 PM
Honestly, what he does is just for power. By becoming that decisive vote, he's been able to have way more influence since, what 2010, than if he was some D-caucusing member.

Though that's going to end in 2018, I think. With both better than 50% odds of picking up Hill's vacant seat and Miloscia's. Does Sheldon switch parties?

No reason to be in the "Majority Coalition Caucus" if it doesn't get you a majority. Letting a complete traitor back into the caucus might make some Democrats wince, but there's probably no other Democrat who can both primary Sheldon and hold the seat.

I agree that the State Senate is definitely Lean D at this point. D's have almost no vulnerable LD's up for grabs this cycle, and Republicans have to defend the 45th and the 30th, and maybe even the 6th, 26th, or 47th if Democrats get serious.

Has it been confirmed that Baumgardner is taking a job in DC? I know Dansel is gone (big surprise) but was this just a rumor?

Has a temporary EPA transition job, which might develop into a full-time position. Same with Erickson.

Erickson, asshole that he is, is currently annoying his Republican colleagues by splitting time between his EPA job and his legislative duties. And with a tied Senate, votes are often being put on hold until Erickson flies back from DC.

Is Ben curious to hear an analysis on House and Senate  races in 18 from you

Federal or State House/Senate races?

State. I don't think anyone outside of Reichert is vulnerable... yet


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on February 05, 2017, 05:08:13 AM
Alright, Senate first, then I'll go into the House races later.


LD 6: Baumgardner could resign to take a job in the Trump administration, which could make for an interesting race. New State Dem Chair Tina Podlodowski has talked up being more competitive in Eastern Washington, and this is pretty much the only possible target. Safe R if Baumgardner stays, Lean/Likely R if he doesn't.

LD 7: I have no idea if placeholder Senator Shelly Short plans on running for this seat, but it's Safe R regardless.

LD 8: Sharon Brown will be re-elected. Safe R

LD 13: Extremely Safe R

LD 15: Maybe Trump's presidency will finally get Hispanic voters in Yakima to turn out. Don't bet on it. Safe R.

LD 21: Marko Liias should have no problem being re-elected. Safe D.

LD 26: Jan Angel will be tough to defeat, and both Rep's for this district were re-elected by decent margins in 2014. The Gig Harbor/Artondale portion of this district swung fairly hard to the left in 2016, but are probably still happy and willing to vote for a most mainstream Republicans. Likely R.

LD 29: Steve Conway is 72 and might retire, but D's should hold this seat easily regardless. Safe D

LD 30: The Main Event. Mark Miloscia probably wasn't too happy seeing Linda Kochmar and Terri Hickel get blown out by Democrats in 2016. Maybe he gets enough cross-over D support to stay alive, but the prognosis isn't good with Democrats absolutely needing this buffer their potential thin majority. Lean/Likely D

LD 31: The Senate will greatly miss the presence of Pam Roach, who was as kind and warm-hearted as her name implies. Safe R

LD 32: Maralyn Chase could retire at 76, and I'd love to see Cindy Ryu move up. Safe D in any case.

LD 33: Karen Kaiser has been in this district since 1996. She will remain there until she decides to leave. Safe D

LD 34: Soon-to-be-Senate-Majority-Leader Sharon Nelson will cruise to re-election. Safe D

LD 35: What to do with Tim Sheldon. Sheldon is sure to face another D primary challenger, but I think he'd rather run against a fellow Democrat (And become the default R candidate) than run against a Republican and risk getting defeated in this R-trending seat. Sheldon could choose to caucus with the Democrats again should they gain the majority; which means it may be prudent for Republicans to challenge him. Sheldon is 70 and could theoretically retire as well, in which case Republicans probably pick this seat up. I have no idea how to even rate this race. Toss-Up, I guess?

LD 36: Will Rueven Carlyle even have an opponent? Stay tuned. Safe D

LD 37: Rebecca Saldaña's first ever election will be a cakewalk. Safe D

LD 38: John McCoy is 73 and could retire. June Robinson would easily hold this seat if he did, as could most Democrats. Safe D.

LD 42: Doug Ericksen could also leave to join the Trump administration. Good riddance if he does. Safe R

LD 43: Is this the most Safe D legislative district in the country? Definitely a contender.

LD 44: Probably the only Senate seat that D's will have to put any effort into defending. Not a ton of effort though. Likely D

LD 45: This would have been a fight for R's to hold with Andy Hill, and with his unfortunate passing they're likely screwed in this district where Trump did not carry a single precinct. Democrats almost certainly take this seat in the special election. Likely D

LD 46: Another Seattle district. Safe D

LD 47: Clinton probably carried this district, but Joe Fain is popular enough that he shouldn't be worried. Likely R

LD 48: The math for Republicans to control the State Senate in the future gets a lot harder if Eastside is now a solid D area top-to-bottom, as it appears to be. Safe D

In short: D's likely take Senate on whatever date the LD-45 special election is, and look good to hold the chamber for a while barring any major shifts in voting habits. Come 2020 the only seats the D's will have to defend will be the 5th and 19th, with the 5th trending D and the 19th trending R. Even if Republicans get both of those, they'd need one more assuming Sheldon is caucusing with Democrats.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on February 06, 2017, 12:06:08 AM
Now for the House, with shorter write-ups for the sake of space:

LD-1: Safe D/Safe D
LD-2: Safe R/Safe R
LD-3: Safe D/Safe D
LD-4: Safe R/Safe R

LD-5: Dems are sure to target Rodne and Graves again, hopefully with better nominees than two failed WA-08 candidates. Hard to tell who wins this far out. Toss-Up for both seats

LD-6: Even if D's target the 6th, I don't see Volz or Hardy going down. If Baumgardner resigns however, Dems could target an open seat. Safe R for now.

LD-7: Safe R/Safe R
LD-8: Safe R/Safe R
LD-9: Safe R/Safe R
LD-10: Safe R/Safe R
LD-11: Safe D/Safe D
LD-12: Safe R/Safe R
LD-13: Safe R/Safe R
LD-14: Safe R/Safe R
LD-15: Safe R/Safe R
LD-16: Safe R/Safe R

LD-17: Dems came up about 2,000 votes short of taking the open House seat last year, but Vicki Kraft likely does better as an incumbent. This district is trending D, but will probably remain in R hands for a while. Likely R/Safe R

LD-18: Safe R/Safe R

LD-19: A target for both parties. Dems will look to try again against Jim Walsh, who won his first term in 2016 by less than 1,000 votes and likely helped by Donald Trump's popularity in this area. Dem incumbent Brian Blake crushed his challenger, but Republicans will likely try again in this reddening rural seat. Former Rep. J.D. Rossetti (D) could run, but his checkered personal history and the fact that he lost a primary gives me pause to his candidacy. Toss-Up/Lean D

LD-20: Safe R/Safe R
LD-21: Safe D/Safe D
LD-22: Safe D/Safe D
LD-23: Safe D/Safe D

LD-24: Republicans could maybe make a play here if incumbent Steve Tharinger retires. But super-liberal Jefferson County makes this a really steep hill to climb for the GOP. A winning Republican candidate would probably need to dominate in Clallam Co. in order to make up for Jefferson's deficit, and Clallam isn't really a county where massive wins are possible. Safe D/Safe D for now.

LD-25: Safe R/Safe R

LD-26: Everything I said about Jan Angel applies to Young and Caldier as well. Likely R/Likely R

LD-27: Safe D/Safe D

LD-28: Another seat for both parties to target. Dick Muri (R) is probably slightly more vulnerable than Christine Kilduff (D), but this area loves voting for moderate Republicans. Lean R/Lean D

LD-29: Safe D/Safe D

LD-30: Could ousted Rep's Linda Kochmar and/or Terri Hickel return for a rematch? Even if they do, I think Dems have a solid advantage here. Likely D/Lean D

LD-31: Safe R/Safe R
LD-32: Safe D/Safe D
LD-33: Safe D/Safe D
LD-34: Safe D/Safe D
LD-35: Safe R/Safe R
LD-36: Safe D/Safe D
LD-37: Safe D/Safe D
LD-38: Safe D/Safe D
LD-39: Safe R/Safe R
LD-40: Safe D/Safe D
LD-41: Safe D/Safe D
LD-42: Safe R/Safe R
LD-43: Safe D/Safe D

LD-44: Both John Lovick (D) and Mark Harmsworth (R) are likely to have targets on their back this cycle. Lovick pulled off a slim 52-48 win in his first ever election. Harmsworth pulled out a larger but not that impressive 54-45 win. I'm guessing Lovick's numbers improve in 2018 as an incumbent, and that Harmsworth pulls off a slim win. Lean D/Lean R

LD-45: Safe D/Safe D
LD-46: Safe D/Safe D

LD-47: Both Mark Hargrove (R) and Pat Sullivan (D) will probably be re-elected, and neither seems likely to retire this cycle. Side Note: I love that this district simultaneously votes for the Democrat House Majority Leader and Republican Senate Majority Leader. Can't split tickets any harder than that. Likely R/Likely D

LD-48: Safe D/Safe D
LD-49: Safe D/Safe D


For the GOP to win control of the House they have to pull off another close double-win in the 5th, and then pick up two Dem seats. I'd expect them to target LD-19 and LD-47 the hardest, but it's hard for me to see them winning either one. I'd put House control at Likely D overall right now.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on February 06, 2017, 12:25:48 PM
I think your analysis holds true, I love it. I'm thinking D+2 in the Senate right now, inclusive of the special in the 45th (which is my district right now, but I dunno if I'll be there in November or not)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on February 09, 2017, 07:18:38 PM
Bold Prediction: Bob Ferguson will be Washington's next governor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on February 09, 2017, 08:15:35 PM
Bold Prediction: Bob Ferguson will be Washington's next governor.

Still think Dow is likelier, IMO. Ferguson would clear the field if, say, Cantwell or Murray ever hung it up


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on February 10, 2017, 12:34:52 PM
Bold Prediction: Bob Ferguson will be Washington's next governor.

Still think Dow is likelier, IMO. Ferguson would clear the field if, say, Cantwell or Murray ever hung it up

I agree. But I also really want to see Dow elected, so I may be biased.

There's also Derek Kilmer who I think will end up in the Senate eventually.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on February 10, 2017, 02:58:59 PM
Bold Prediction: Bob Ferguson will be Washington's next governor.

Still think Dow is likelier, IMO. Ferguson would clear the field if, say, Cantwell or Murray ever hung it up

I agree. But I also really want to see Dow elected, so I may be biased.

There's also Derek Kilmer who I think will end up in the Senate eventually.

Probably Kilmer or DelBene gets the next open Senate seat.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on February 10, 2017, 04:33:27 PM
Bold Prediction: Bob Ferguson will be Washington's next governor.

Still think Dow is likelier, IMO. Ferguson would clear the field if, say, Cantwell or Murray ever hung it up

I agree. But I also really want to see Dow elected, so I may be biased.

There's also Derek Kilmer who I think will end up in the Senate eventually.

Probably Kilmer or DelBene gets the next open Senate seat.

I'd prefer Kilmer just from an age standpoint, can build seniority. I imagine Murray/Cantwell want to be replaced by women, but maybe I'm just projecting. DelBene is pretty unexciting (though a solid Rep. I believe I'm in her district)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on February 10, 2017, 05:47:46 PM
I've always thought DelBene would follow Cantwell, except that she's 55, to Cantwell's 58.
Which is probably too old, considering Murray will likely run again in 2022, and I imagine so will Cantwell in 2024.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: henster on February 10, 2017, 09:36:31 PM
Cantwell and Murray seem like lifers to me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Vega on February 10, 2017, 10:01:49 PM
If Murray were to get a decent primary challenger she would probably lose.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on February 10, 2017, 11:02:53 PM
A recall effort has been launched against State Sen. Doug Ericksen. (http://www.theolympian.com/latest-news/article131935344.html) The campaigners say the recall stems from Ericksen's job in the Trump administration, and that Ericksen is shirking his legislative duties. Since taking the job, Ericksen has missed 75% of his committee hearings.


If Murray were to get a decent primary challenger she would probably lose.

Washington isn't as liberal as people think it is.




Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on February 14, 2017, 06:54:56 PM
Deputy King County Prosecutor and community activist Manka Dhingra (D) (http://www.seattlepi.com/local/politics/article/A-Democrat-out-of-the-block-in-contest-to-decide-10930077.php) is the first person to declare for the SD-45 special election.

Quote
She has worked in mental health and violence prevention, and co-founded Chaya, a non-profit that works to reduce systemic violence in the Puget Sound area's growing Asian communities.

Dhingra is a past recipient of the State PSTA Golden Acorn Award.  She is the mother of two children who attend Redmond Middle School and Redmond High School.

Her husband is a former Microsoft exec and currently works for SpaceX.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: henster on February 14, 2017, 10:13:41 PM
Deputy King County Prosecutor and community activist Manka Dhingra (D) (http://www.seattlepi.com/local/politics/article/A-Democrat-out-of-the-block-in-contest-to-decide-10930077.php) is the first person to declare for the SD-45 special election.

Quote
She has worked in mental health and violence prevention, and co-founded Chaya, a non-profit that works to reduce systemic violence in the Puget Sound area's growing Asian communities.

Dhingra is a past recipient of the State PSTA Golden Acorn Award.  She is the mother of two children who attend Redmond Middle School and Redmond High School.

Her husband is a former Microsoft exec and currently works for SpaceX.

$$. She sounds perfect and no past votes to hit her on.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on February 18, 2017, 01:55:39 PM
Mark Miloscia has apparently asked the federal government to step in and stop King County's recently implemented safe consumption sites.

I sooooo look forward to seeing him lose.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on February 18, 2017, 07:15:49 PM
Deputy King County Prosecutor and community activist Manka Dhingra (D) (http://www.seattlepi.com/local/politics/article/A-Democrat-out-of-the-block-in-contest-to-decide-10930077.php) is the first person to declare for the SD-45 special election.

Quote
She has worked in mental health and violence prevention, and co-founded Chaya, a non-profit that works to reduce systemic violence in the Puget Sound area's growing Asian communities.

Dhingra is a past recipient of the State PSTA Golden Acorn Award.  She is the mother of two children who attend Redmond Middle School and Redmond High School.

Her husband is a former Microsoft exec and currently works for SpaceX.

That's a great get. Can self fund, voters love prosecutors, and she's Indian (I assume?) in a district that is as Indian as it gets on the West Coast.

I was expecting Freeman, but I'd vote for this lady if I'm still in the 45th this fall


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on February 22, 2017, 01:26:56 PM
There's a decent candidate running against Seattle City Council President Tim Burgess (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/this-city-put-me-back-together-charlene-strong-to-run-for-seattle-city-council/) in Washington Human Rights Commission Chair Charlene Strong. Strong's campaign statement says her campaign will focus on homelessness and small businesses.

Strong had previously made local headlines in 2006, when she was barred from entering a hospital after her long time domestic partner died in a flash flood in their Seattle home. The case lead to the creation of a statewide domestic partner registry.

She joins King County NAACP VP Sheley Secrest, labor advocate Teresa Mosqueda, and housing activist Jon Grant along with Burgess himself in the race.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on February 22, 2017, 01:32:46 PM
There's a decent candidate running against Seattle City Council President Tim Burgess (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/this-city-put-me-back-together-charlene-strong-to-run-for-seattle-city-council/) in Washington Human Rights Commission Chair Charlene Strong. Strong's campaign statement says her campaign will focus on homelessness and small businesses.

Strong had previously made local headlines in 2006, when she was barred from entering a hospital after her long time domestic partner died in a flash flood in their Seattle home. The case lead to the creation of a statewide domestic partner registry.

She joins King County NAACP VP Sheley Secrest, labor advocate Teresa Mosqueda, and housing activist Jon Grant along with Burgess himself in the race.

Burgess is a reasonably liberal (but - pragmatic) Democrat, IIRC....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on February 22, 2017, 01:35:59 PM
There's a decent candidate running against Seattle City Council President Tim Burgess (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/this-city-put-me-back-together-charlene-strong-to-run-for-seattle-city-council/) in Washington Human Rights Commission Chair Charlene Strong. Strong's campaign statement says her campaign will focus on homelessness and small businesses.

Strong had previously made local headlines in 2006, when she was barred from entering a hospital after her long time domestic partner died in a flash flood in their Seattle home. The case lead to the creation of a statewide domestic partner registry.

She joins King County NAACP VP Sheley Secrest, labor advocate Teresa Mosqueda, and housing activist Jon Grant along with Burgess himself in the race.

Burgess is a reasonably liberal (but - pragmatic) Democrat, IIRC....

He's a moderating force on the council. Which is good if you're not supportive of the Sawant/O'Brien wing of the council, and bad if you are.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on February 22, 2017, 01:49:20 PM
There's a decent candidate running against Seattle City Council President Tim Burgess (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/this-city-put-me-back-together-charlene-strong-to-run-for-seattle-city-council/) in Washington Human Rights Commission Chair Charlene Strong. Strong's campaign statement says her campaign will focus on homelessness and small businesses.

Strong had previously made local headlines in 2006, when she was barred from entering a hospital after her long time domestic partner died in a flash flood in their Seattle home. The case lead to the creation of a statewide domestic partner registry.

She joins King County NAACP VP Sheley Secrest, labor advocate Teresa Mosqueda, and housing activist Jon Grant along with Burgess himself in the race.

Burgess is a reasonably liberal (but - pragmatic) Democrat, IIRC....

He's a moderating force on the council. Which is good if you're not supportive of the Sawant/O'Brien wing of the council, and bad if you are.

Thaks! I understood. I know - it's all, but impossible, to be "too liberal" in Seattle, but i think some moderation may be useful...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on February 22, 2017, 01:57:01 PM
There's a decent candidate running against Seattle City Council President Tim Burgess (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/this-city-put-me-back-together-charlene-strong-to-run-for-seattle-city-council/) in Washington Human Rights Commission Chair Charlene Strong. Strong's campaign statement says her campaign will focus on homelessness and small businesses.

Strong had previously made local headlines in 2006, when she was barred from entering a hospital after her long time domestic partner died in a flash flood in their Seattle home. The case lead to the creation of a statewide domestic partner registry.

She joins King County NAACP VP Sheley Secrest, labor advocate Teresa Mosqueda, and housing activist Jon Grant along with Burgess himself in the race.

Burgess is a reasonably liberal (but - pragmatic) Democrat, IIRC....

He's a moderating force on the council. Which is good if you're not supportive of the Sawant/O'Brien wing of the council, and bad if you are.

Thaks! I understood. I know - it's all, but impossible, to be "too liberal" in Seattle, but i think some moderation may be useful...

There are reasons to dislike Burgess besides not being liberal enough I will add. He was a major backer of the downtown tunnel project that was unpopular with many. He complains about Washington's regressive tax laws, but votes against any attempts for Seattle to pass it's own progressive taxation. He tried to criminalize panhandling, and killed the council's attempt to pass campaign finance reforms. All while having a somewhat condescending personality.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on February 22, 2017, 05:21:33 PM
Burgess is not running for re-election btw.

He's a great moderating voice on the council and is a reliable pro-density vote, which makes up for some of his less than great stances on lets say the tunnel and panhandling.

I don't really know any of the other candidates other than Jon Grant, who I dislike greatly.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on February 22, 2017, 06:00:35 PM
Burgess is not running for re-election btw.

He's a great moderating voice on the council and is a reliable pro-density vote, which makes up for some of his less than great stances on lets say the tunnel and panhandling.

I don't really know any of the other candidates other than Jon Grant, who I dislike greatly.

Ah, I forgot he wasn't running.

But agreed, Jon Grant was very lackluster last time he ran.

Besides him, the other candidates impress me quite a bit.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on February 23, 2017, 12:56:09 PM
Strong has impressive credentials - where does she fall on the Sawant Spectrum? Getting rid of Burgess and further empowering that grandstanding loon is the last thing Seattle needs.

I wouldn't lump O'Btien all the way in with Sawant and her enforcers supporters, he's super progressive but overall a solid legislator who works with stakeholders. Better than Nick Licata at least


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on February 23, 2017, 03:33:25 PM
Strong has impressive credentials - where does she fall on the Sawant Spectrum? Getting rid of Burgess and further empowering that grandstanding loon is the last thing Seattle needs.

I wouldn't lump O'Btien all the way in with Sawant and her enforcers supporters, he's super progressive but overall a solid legislator who works with stakeholders. Better than Nick Licata at least

If I had to take a stab at partisan leaning:

Center ---> Left

Mosqueda ---> Strong ---> Grant ---> Secrest


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on February 23, 2017, 05:44:13 PM
Strong has impressive credentials - where does she fall on the Sawant Spectrum? Getting rid of Burgess and further empowering that grandstanding loon is the last thing Seattle needs.

I wouldn't lump O'Btien all the way in with Sawant and her enforcers supporters, he's super progressive but overall a solid legislator who works with stakeholders. Better than Nick Licata at least

If I had to take a stab at partisan leaning:

Center ---> Left

Mosqueda ---> Strong ---> Grant ---> Secrest

Center here meaning very liberal everywhere else ;)

Thanks for the info, though. It'll be interesting to see how this shakes out and what Strong's views re: density are


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on March 08, 2017, 08:06:48 PM
So, it looks like Seattle is getting a new left-wing populist party: the Seattle People's Party. They're nominating attorney and activist Nikkita Oliver to run against Ed Murray for Mayor.

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/activist-nikkita-oliver-to-run-against-mayor-ed-murray/

http://seattlepeoplesparty.com/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 08, 2017, 09:37:33 PM
So, it looks like Seattle is getting a new left-wing populist party: the Seattle People's Party. They're nominating attorney and activist Nikkita Oliver to run against Ed Murray for Mayor.

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/activist-nikkita-oliver-to-run-against-mayor-ed-murray/

http://seattlepeoplesparty.com/

Have to imagine they'll just cut into any candidates SA runs, no?

Anyhow, they're DOA. Murray is safe


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: NOVA Green on March 08, 2017, 10:04:13 PM
So, it looks like Seattle is getting a new left-wing populist party: the Seattle People's Party. They're nominating attorney and activist Nikkita Oliver to run against Ed Murray for Mayor.

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/activist-nikkita-oliver-to-run-against-mayor-ed-murray/

http://seattlepeoplesparty.com/

Hmmm.... might need to ping my sibling on this one, since she is right down the road from Rainier Beach in South Seattle, and has been working three jobs for Seattle Indivisible over the past few months throughout the City and Metro, and living up there for about 15 years now.

Still even if she plays well in South Seattle and the U-District, not convinced that she'll be able to take down a fairly popular Mayor in North and West Seattle precincts....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Shadows on March 09, 2017, 12:50:58 AM
WA has a progressive base but if full of conservative, moderate New Democrats. Look at the caucus representation, there's hardly a progressive in there !


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: NOVA Green on March 09, 2017, 01:23:03 AM
WA has a progressive base but if full of conservative, moderate New Democrats. Look at the caucus representation, there's hardly a progressive in there !

There are definitely quite a few Progressive Democrats in the City of Seattle, and quite frankly likely a significant majority of Democratic voters within the City....

Now will an insurgent challenger take out an extremely progressive mayor of an extremely progressive City, extremely unlikely.

All politics are local, and Seattle is an extremely Progressive City, where many of the divisions are not between Conservative/Moderate Democrats vs Progressive Democrats or even vs Socialists, but rather on relatively local issues of much greater import to the City that actually electorally rejected Donald Trump by a larger landslide than even San Francisco.

Still, want to get my finger on the pulse of the South Seattle Indivisible movement, since if there is a major positive buzz going around the scene it could be an interesting race to watch....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on March 09, 2017, 01:59:45 AM
So, it looks like Seattle is getting a new left-wing populist party: the Seattle People's Party. They're nominating attorney and activist Nikkita Oliver to run against Ed Murray for Mayor.

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/activist-nikkita-oliver-to-run-against-mayor-ed-murray/

http://seattlepeoplesparty.com/

Hmmm.... might need to ping my sibling on this one, since she is right down the road from Rainier Beach in South Seattle, and has been working three jobs for Seattle Indivisible over the past few months throughout the City and Metro, and living up there for about 15 years now.

Still even if she plays well in South Seattle and the U-District, not convinced that she'll be able to take down a fairly popular Mayor in North and West Seattle precincts....

I don't know. I think Murray's weaker than he looks. Pretty much every neighborhood has seen a big increase in homeless populations. Homelessness is now probably the number one issue in many seemingly strong Murray neighborhoods like Ballard and Queen Anne. While each has it's own proposed solutions to the problem (usually based on income/wealth), pretty much thinks the buck stops at Murray. It'll depend a lot on who makes it to the general, and it doesn't look like any of the candidates so far are particularly formidable, but I can see someone taking down Murray if they play all their cards right.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 09, 2017, 06:29:38 PM
So, it looks like Seattle is getting a new left-wing populist party: the Seattle People's Party. They're nominating attorney and activist Nikkita Oliver to run against Ed Murray for Mayor.

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/activist-nikkita-oliver-to-run-against-mayor-ed-murray/

http://seattlepeoplesparty.com/

Hmmm.... might need to ping my sibling on this one, since she is right down the road from Rainier Beach in South Seattle, and has been working three jobs for Seattle Indivisible over the past few months throughout the City and Metro, and living up there for about 15 years now.

Still even if she plays well in South Seattle and the U-District, not convinced that she'll be able to take down a fairly popular Mayor in North and West Seattle precincts....

I don't know. I think Murray's weaker than he looks. Pretty much every neighborhood has seen a big increase in homeless populations. Homelessness is now probably the number one issue in many seemingly strong Murray neighborhoods like Ballard and Queen Anne. While each has it's own proposed solutions to the problem (usually based on income/wealth), pretty much thinks the buck stops at Murray. It'll depend a lot on who makes it to the general, and it doesn't look like any of the candidates so far are particularly formidable, but I can see someone taking down Murray if they play all their cards right.

Sawant and her crew coddling the homeless has more to do with that than Murray, though. You are right, however, that the buck stops with the Mayor, and people always blame the executive first


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on March 09, 2017, 09:18:50 PM
I'm curious, KS, what you think should be done about the homeless problem. I've seen you state your distaste for Sawant's policies on the issue numerous times but I don't think you've ever offered up your alternative.

(Not meant to be a b**chy "Well then what do you suggest?!?!" question, genuinely curious)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: NOVA Green on March 10, 2017, 10:53:37 PM
So, it looks like Seattle is getting a new left-wing populist party: the Seattle People's Party. They're nominating attorney and activist Nikkita Oliver to run against Ed Murray for Mayor.

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/activist-nikkita-oliver-to-run-against-mayor-ed-murray/

http://seattlepeoplesparty.com/

Hmmm.... might need to ping my sibling on this one, since she is right down the road from Rainier Beach in South Seattle, and has been working three jobs for Seattle Indivisible over the past few months throughout the City and Metro, and living up there for about 15 years now.

Still even if she plays well in South Seattle and the U-District, not convinced that she'll be able to take down a fairly popular Mayor in North and West Seattle precincts....

I don't know. I think Murray's weaker than he looks. Pretty much every neighborhood has seen a big increase in homeless populations. Homelessness is now probably the number one issue in many seemingly strong Murray neighborhoods like Ballard and Queen Anne. While each has it's own proposed solutions to the problem (usually based on income/wealth), pretty much thinks the buck stops at Murray. It'll depend a lot on who makes it to the general, and it doesn't look like any of the candidates so far are particularly formidable, but I can see someone taking down Murray if they play all their cards right.

So spent about 30 minutes talking with my Sister tonight.... she had to get off the phone to light the candles for Shabbat, so I was not able to talk with her as long I would have liked.

FWIW: Her opinion is that Nikkita is a long-shot, but not unfeasible running against Murray. These sympathies currently run strong in the grass-roots activist groups that she is heavily involved in, especially in South Seattle (Local neighborhood associations & Indivisible chapters).

Homelessness is increasingly becoming a major issue with Seattle politics. Like most other major West Coast cities since the Obama Recovery following the Great Recession (Seattle, Portland, Bay Area, & San Diego), as well as medium sized cities such as Tacoma, Vancouver, Salem, Eugene, Sacramento)...

Arguably homelessness is the major issue in Seattle and Portland these days in municipal politics....

My Sister was one of many observers when the mayor cleared "The Jungle"... despite various promises from Murray over the past few years to provide "alternative housing" for these residents. She went there at 5:30 in the morning to bear witness to the clearing of the camps, that just recently happened. They were not allowed access. They had a National Lawyers Guild observer as part of the team, who was not allowed access.

She said she has seen video footage recorded of the Seattle Police Department slashing the tents of the homeless, and throwing away the limited personal possessions of the local residents, despite the Mayor stating that the sprawling individual tents and community tent areas would be cleared with dignity and respect, with no items of value being needlessly destroyed.

This definitively occurred when "The Jungle" was cleared. Additionally, she told me that local residents for months had been appealing to the City for assistance to resolve issues impacting the community, and that half of the City Council supported many of the resident's recommendations, but that the Mayor was opposed....  Regardless, didn't have as much time to talk on this as I would have liked.

For anyone not familiar with "The Jungle" (And most of y'all on this thread likely are, being how it's all about Washington State), here are a few links.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Jungle_(Seattle)

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/inside-the-grim-world-of-the-jungle-the-caves-sleeping-in-shifts-and-eyeball-eating-rats/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FAPp3DXc6n0

Obviously, homelessness is only one of many issues in Seattle politics, but hell we are talking about a City that is actually significantly to the Left of San Francisco these days....

We'll see how this rolls down the line, but Nikkita should do fairly well in South Seattle regardless, and is getting a ton of local progressive activist buzz up there in an extremely activist City.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 11, 2017, 12:00:59 AM
I'm curious, KS, what you think should be done about the homeless problem. I've seen you state your distaste for Sawant's policies on the issue numerous times but I don't think you've ever offered up your alternative.

(Not meant to be a b**chy "Well then what do you suggest?!?!" question, genuinely curious)

Of course! I didn't take it that way, don't worry.

I really think Sawant's attitude is more of the problem than her policies, per se. The phalanx of supporters who show up and disrupt council meetings and tried to prevent the dissolution of the Jungle are case in point. I think it's counterproductive to pretend that homelessness is not a problem and that vagrants should just be allowed to stay.

Seattle is a generous, progressive city, yet I feel (and I've only admittedly come back to the area recently) that the conversation swirls less around what we can DO for the truly destitute and more around how it's oppression to make them move. That's why I was glad Nicole Macri was elected to the state leg - she actually has worked with homeless advocacy and help groups and knows the issue. We need more voices like hers, not "it's a human right to camp out in a park!" rhetoric.

The only political issue I'm genuinely passionate about is anti-Nimbyism. I hate NIMBYs. Especially NIMBYs who are ostensibly liberal and couch their rhetoric in "evil developers." "If it weren't just for those evil developers, housing costs wouldn't go up so much!" This is nonsense, and economically illiterate. People who take this stance only exacerbate the crisis in housing affordability we have now in the city. Richard Conlin was really good on this issue. As far as I've seen, the woman who defeated him has tended to skew on the "evil capitalists!!1!" side.

I admire Sawant's advocacy for the minimum wage, I genuinely do, even though I have skepticism over $15 in places outside of Seattle. But I generally don't find her rhetorical... "flourishes" helpful or particularly insightful. But bluntly, I think she talks a big game and has no clue what she's talking about. I think she's economically illiterate. Also, she ran against Conlin over the Sonics but when push came to shove voted against the street vacation. So she's a flip-flopping liar, too.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 11, 2017, 12:08:01 AM
(continued)

As for what I would do to help solve homelessness, I think expanding the amount of housing drastically would help. An upzone, maybe not in the entire city, but in most of it. Seattle is too suburban in character for such a large metropolis. But of course, we can't do that, because "evil developers!"

Utah has a program where they basically put homeless people in apartment housing, for free. Better they have somewhere safe to stay than sleep in parks or under bridges. If there were, say, more microhousing, there could be places to help place vagrants during transitional periods. It would of course take a few years for all of this housing to come online, so it's not a perfect solution. Seattle is innovative, though, that I truly believe. Cleaning up the infamous "Seattle process" is step one. Everyone and their grandma doesn't need to have their opinion heard four times with an extra study for good measure.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on March 11, 2017, 02:57:54 AM
Definitely agree with you on the hatred of NIMBY's. Nimby's in the suburban areas of the city who fight against apartment buildings being built in their neighborhood being the #1 offender.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 11, 2017, 09:56:43 AM
Definitely agree with you on the hatred of NIMBY's. Nimby's in the suburban areas of the city who fight against apartment buildings being built in their neighborhood being the #1 offender.


Nimbyism brings together the worst people from all ends of the political spectrum.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on March 11, 2017, 01:19:03 PM
Definitely agree with you on the hatred of NIMBY's. Nimby's in the suburban areas of the city who fight against apartment buildings being built in their neighborhood being the #1 offender.


Nimbyism brings together the worst people from all ends of the political spectrum.

"But I want to know who my neighbors are" - Someone who should be living somewhere else.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 11, 2017, 01:41:33 PM
Definitely agree with you on the hatred of NIMBY's. Nimby's in the suburban areas of the city who fight against apartment buildings being built in their neighborhood being the #1 offender.


Nimbyism brings together the worst people from all ends of the political spectrum.

"But I want to know who my neighbors are" - Someone who should be living somewhere else.

I mean, I'd like to know my neighbors, but that doesn't mean I get to pick and choose my neighbors.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on March 11, 2017, 02:36:24 PM
(continued)

As for what I would do to help solve homelessness, I think expanding the amount of housing drastically would help. An upzone, maybe not in the entire city, but in most of it. Seattle is too suburban in character for such a large metropolis. But of course, we can't do that, because "evil developers!"

Utah has a program where they basically put homeless people in apartment housing, for free. Better they have somewhere safe to stay than sleep in parks or under bridges. If there were, say, more microhousing, there could be places to help place vagrants during transitional periods. It would of course take a few years for all of this housing to come online, so it's not a perfect solution. Seattle is innovative, though, that I truly believe. Cleaning up the infamous "Seattle process" is step one. Everyone and their grandma doesn't need to have their opinion heard four times with an extra study for good measure.

I agree with this exactly. I think one of the biggest economic problems in Seattle is that, while there should logically be a small number of expensive housing options, more for middle income, and lots for low-income, there's a huge drop-off when you go below $2,000/month. I mean, places definitely exist, but demand is so high, and most are in middle class neighborhoods like Wallingford, rather than low-income neighborhoods. One solution to this is to just raise the minimum wage, although there's only so much that can be done in that realm. The other theoretical solution, which King Sweden articulated is to just build thousands and thousands of houses and apartments to push supply up and prices down, so maybe those $2,000/month places might lower their prices. Of course, housing prices rarely actually go down except for during a recession, so there also needs to be a comprehensive subsidy program.

Now, there's also the issue of those who don't want to be moved into an apartment if it comes with strings attached, such as a curfew or drug testing. And I am also of the belief that people have a right to be homeless if they so choose, and you cannot forcibly relocate law-abiding people to a new home against their will. But, I think if we can get prices down low enough to help those who want to buy/rent on their own with a subsidy, and get those who have drug problems the option of going to rehab for free, in conjunction with cracking down on the definitely not-homeless drug dealers operating out of RVs, the number that remain will only be a tiny portion of what we see today, or even what we saw five years ago or so.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 12, 2017, 02:37:12 PM
(continued)

As for what I would do to help solve homelessness, I think expanding the amount of housing drastically would help. An upzone, maybe not in the entire city, but in most of it. Seattle is too suburban in character for such a large metropolis. But of course, we can't do that, because "evil developers!"

Utah has a program where they basically put homeless people in apartment housing, for free. Better they have somewhere safe to stay than sleep in parks or under bridges. If there were, say, more microhousing, there could be places to help place vagrants during transitional periods. It would of course take a few years for all of this housing to come online, so it's not a perfect solution. Seattle is innovative, though, that I truly believe. Cleaning up the infamous "Seattle process" is step one. Everyone and their grandma doesn't need to have their opinion heard four times with an extra study for good measure.

I agree with this exactly. I think one of the biggest economic problems in Seattle is that, while there should logically be a small number of expensive housing options, more for middle income, and lots for low-income, there's a huge drop-off when you go below $2,000/month. I mean, places definitely exist, but demand is so high, and most are in middle class neighborhoods like Wallingford, rather than low-income neighborhoods. One solution to this is to just raise the minimum wage, although there's only so much that can be done in that realm. The other theoretical solution, which King Sweden articulated is to just build thousands and thousands of houses and apartments to push supply up and prices down, so maybe those $2,000/month places might lower their prices. Of course, housing prices rarely actually go down except for during a recession, so there also needs to be a comprehensive subsidy program.

Now, there's also the issue of those who don't want to be moved into an apartment if it comes with strings attached, such as a curfew or drug testing. And I am also of the belief that people have a right to be homeless if they so choose, and you cannot forcibly relocate law-abiding people to a new home against their will. But, I think if we can get prices down low enough to help those who want to buy/rent on their own with a subsidy, and get those who have drug problems the option of going to rehab for free, in conjunction with cracking down on the definitely not-homeless drug dealers operating out of RVs, the number that remain will only be a tiny portion of what we see today, or even what we saw five years ago or so.

Is homelessness by choice a big thing? I have to imagine most homeless are in their position due to various hardships, not because they want to be. I don't know much about it though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on March 12, 2017, 03:52:48 PM
One solution to this is to just raise the minimum wage, although there's only so much that can be done in that realm.

Raising the minimum wage won't help much at all on this front and may actually make it worse through increasing demand.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Shadows on March 13, 2017, 12:10:33 AM
One solution to this is to just raise the minimum wage, although there's only so much that can be done in that realm.

Raising the minimum wage won't help much at all on this front and may actually make it worse through increasing demand.

Yea then technically you have to further increase the supply to create a situation with low producer surplus. But the deal is not having a higher minimum wage will probably be worse since you won't have disposable income. You may massively increase supply & prices may come down a bit but it still wouldn't probably be anywhere within your income range to get a home.

I think there is only so much you can do to decrease the prices, there is a ceiling beyond which you have to go towards taxpayer funded subsidy. It is always better to have a higher wage which is going to help.

The Dems in WA is full of New Democrats with Conservative Republicans (Look at the Caucus Representations through the years). I am certainly not saying the Sawant is the perfect politician but sometimes you need a disruptor & an abashed progressive activist when your politicians tend to lose touch with the progressive base. It is certainly not ideal if half of the elected members is Sawant like, but she genuinely believes in her cause & there should ideally be people like her involved in the democratic process.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: NOVA Green on March 13, 2017, 03:16:01 AM
(continued)

As for what I would do to help solve homelessness, I think expanding the amount of housing drastically would help. An upzone, maybe not in the entire city, but in most of it. Seattle is too suburban in character for such a large metropolis. But of course, we can't do that, because "evil developers!"

Utah has a program where they basically put homeless people in apartment housing, for free. Better they have somewhere safe to stay than sleep in parks or under bridges. If there were, say, more microhousing, there could be places to help place vagrants during transitional periods. It would of course take a few years for all of this housing to come online, so it's not a perfect solution. Seattle is innovative, though, that I truly believe. Cleaning up the infamous "Seattle process" is step one. Everyone and their grandma doesn't need to have their opinion heard four times with an extra study for good measure.

I agree with this exactly. I think one of the biggest economic problems in Seattle is that, while there should logically be a small number of expensive housing options, more for middle income, and lots for low-income, there's a huge drop-off when you go below $2,000/month. I mean, places definitely exist, but demand is so high, and most are in middle class neighborhoods like Wallingford, rather than low-income neighborhoods. One solution to this is to just raise the minimum wage, although there's only so much that can be done in that realm. The other theoretical solution, which King Sweden articulated is to just build thousands and thousands of houses and apartments to push supply up and prices down, so maybe those $2,000/month places might lower their prices. Of course, housing prices rarely actually go down except for during a recession, so there also needs to be a comprehensive subsidy program.

Now, there's also the issue of those who don't want to be moved into an apartment if it comes with strings attached, such as a curfew or drug testing. And I am also of the belief that people have a right to be homeless if they so choose, and you cannot forcibly relocate law-abiding people to a new home against their will. But, I think if we can get prices down low enough to help those who want to buy/rent on their own with a subsidy, and get those who have drug problems the option of going to rehab for free, in conjunction with cracking down on the definitely not-homeless drug dealers operating out of RVs, the number that remain will only be a tiny portion of what we see today, or even what we saw five years ago or so.

Is homelessness by choice a big thing? I have to imagine most homeless are in their position due to various hardships, not because they want to be. I don't know much about it though.
[/b]

Thank you King Sweden!!!

I am currently homeless, along with my wife (Thankfully no children in our current family unit).

This is definitely NOT a choice.....   

The vast majority of the Homeless population in America, are individuals such as myself that lost both jobs and housing at the relatively same time, and next thing you know you have run out of options....

Simply put, the cost of housing is virtually impossible in most major Metro areas of the West Coast for those living, even for those of us living on maximum unemployment benefits.

Imagine the situation for those clearing only $300-350 / Week in Unemployment Insurance in expensive Metro areas such as Seattle/Portland/San Francisco....

No job= almost 0% chance of getting into an apartment, even quite possibly if you have a cosigner that will cover the move-in deposits, etc....

Additionally, once you have been out of work for awhile, usually you get a dramatic collapse in your credit rating, which can preclude housing opportunities, since now you "are considered a risk"....

So what happens when you are out of work and your unemployment benefits start running down and you still haven't got a job?

You have been living in cheap hotels, crashing with friends and family, and drifting from town to town hoping that something will come through, and yet there is no hope.

For individuals without family support networks, those with major mental illness issues, those with substance abuse issues, this problem is even more pronounced.

My Wife of ten years was homeless with five children living in a campground outside of Golden, Colorado (Coors Country) leaving a physically abusive relationship from her Ex-Husband for 4-5 months.

She became a political activist against the HUD policies and the political structure of the city of Denver in the late '80s/early '90s.

Sure, there are plenty of problems with "The Jungle", but I am yet to be convinced of the merits of the Mayor's position.... there are a ton of means of addressing issues such as the lack of affordable housing, and providing immediate housing that don't involve slashing the tents of the homeless, banning individuals camping in cars, etc....

Ultimately this is a Federal Problem, since cities alone can't cover the costs.... I am extremely skeptical that we will see any help on this under the current administration, let alone any other administration over the past 40+ years...

There are various solutions that cities can potentially provide, but these are all ultimately band-aids patching over massive injuries....

http://www.oregonlive.com/hg/index.ssf/2014/11/tiny_houses_for_homeless.html






Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 13, 2017, 09:49:24 AM
(continued)

As for what I would do to help solve homelessness, I think expanding the amount of housing drastically would help. An upzone, maybe not in the entire city, but in most of it. Seattle is too suburban in character for such a large metropolis. But of course, we can't do that, because "evil developers!"

Utah has a program where they basically put homeless people in apartment housing, for free. Better they have somewhere safe to stay than sleep in parks or under bridges. If there were, say, more microhousing, there could be places to help place vagrants during transitional periods. It would of course take a few years for all of this housing to come online, so it's not a perfect solution. Seattle is innovative, though, that I truly believe. Cleaning up the infamous "Seattle process" is step one. Everyone and their grandma doesn't need to have their opinion heard four times with an extra study for good measure.

I agree with this exactly. I think one of the biggest economic problems in Seattle is that, while there should logically be a small number of expensive housing options, more for middle income, and lots for low-income, there's a huge drop-off when you go below $2,000/month. I mean, places definitely exist, but demand is so high, and most are in middle class neighborhoods like Wallingford, rather than low-income neighborhoods. One solution to this is to just raise the minimum wage, although there's only so much that can be done in that realm. The other theoretical solution, which King Sweden articulated is to just build thousands and thousands of houses and apartments to push supply up and prices down, so maybe those $2,000/month places might lower their prices. Of course, housing prices rarely actually go down except for during a recession, so there also needs to be a comprehensive subsidy program.

Now, there's also the issue of those who don't want to be moved into an apartment if it comes with strings attached, such as a curfew or drug testing. And I am also of the belief that people have a right to be homeless if they so choose, and you cannot forcibly relocate law-abiding people to a new home against their will. But, I think if we can get prices down low enough to help those who want to buy/rent on their own with a subsidy, and get those who have drug problems the option of going to rehab for free, in conjunction with cracking down on the definitely not-homeless drug dealers operating out of RVs, the number that remain will only be a tiny portion of what we see today, or even what we saw five years ago or so.

Is homelessness by choice a big thing? I have to imagine most homeless are in their position due to various hardships, not because they want to be. I don't know much about it though.
[/b]

Thank you King Sweden!!!

I am currently homeless, along with my wife (Thankfully no children in our current family unit).

This is definitely NOT a choice.....   

The vast majority of the Homeless population in America, are individuals such as myself that lost both jobs and housing at the relatively same time, and next thing you know you have run out of options....

Simply put, the cost of housing is virtually impossible in most major Metro areas of the West Coast for those living, even for those of us living on maximum unemployment benefits.

Imagine the situation for those clearing only $300-350 / Week in Unemployment Insurance in expensive Metro areas such as Seattle/Portland/San Francisco....

No job= almost 0% chance of getting into an apartment, even quite possibly if you have a cosigner that will cover the move-in deposits, etc....

Additionally, once you have been out of work for awhile, usually you get a dramatic collapse in your credit rating, which can preclude housing opportunities, since now you "are considered a risk"....

So what happens when you are out of work and your unemployment benefits start running down and you still haven't got a job?

You have been living in cheap hotels, crashing with friends and family, and drifting from town to town hoping that something will come through, and yet there is no hope.

For individuals without family support networks, those with major mental illness issues, those with substance abuse issues, this problem is even more pronounced.

My Wife of ten years was homeless with five children living in a campground outside of Golden, Colorado (Coors Country) leaving a physically abusive relationship from her Ex-Husband for 4-5 months.

She became a political activist against the HUD policies and the political structure of the city of Denver in the late '80s/early '90s.

Sure, there are plenty of problems with "The Jungle", but I am yet to be convinced of the merits of the Mayor's position.... there are a ton of means of addressing issues such as the lack of affordable housing, and providing immediate housing that don't involve slashing the tents of the homeless, banning individuals camping in cars, etc....

Ultimately this is a Federal Problem, since cities alone can't cover the costs.... I am extremely skeptical that we will see any help on this under the current administration, let alone any other administration over the past 40+ years...

There are various solutions that cities can potentially provide, but these are all ultimately band-aids patching over massive injuries....

http://www.oregonlive.com/hg/index.ssf/2014/11/tiny_houses_for_homeless.html






I'm really sorry you're going through that


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: NOVA Green on March 14, 2017, 03:54:28 AM
Thanks KS!!! :)

Wasn't in any way shape or form trying to jack the thread.

Aside from my individual situation, which will likely soon be resolved (Fingers crossed), there is a much larger problem regarding the lack of access to affordable housing in the larger cities of the West Coast, combined with a lack of local level resources to seriously address an issue which in many ways should actually fall more under resourcing and programs at the Federal Level (HUD) combined with State level programs to address the issue.

What inevitably happens in cities like Seattle, Portland, and San Francisco, as well as many others, is that  local issues of homelessness become politicized, even though the overwhelming majority of Mayors and City Council members, etc are extremely vocal on such items, there simply aren't the local mechanisms and funding to be able to address one of the major causes, which is the effective 1.5x increase following the "Economic Recovery".

No idea how this will play out at all in the upcoming Mayoral elections in Seattle, but this issue was definitely a big deal in the Portland Mayoral and City Council Elections in the 2016 GE, so definitely something to watch as a policy item that could impact the perception of an extremely Liberal Democratic Mayor in an extremely Progressive Democratic City.

(Sits down and goes back to "lurk" mode)

Y'all are great, in fact some of my favorite posters on the Forum and total experts and gurus on all aspects of Washington State politics! I rarely comment on this subthread for that very reason---

What I do believe is she will do quite well in South Seattle and possibly West Seattle, but not so sure about elsewhere in the City, or the potential to create a majority coalition against a fairly popular Mayor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 14, 2017, 10:19:51 AM
Seattle mayors can get vulnerable quickly and suddenly.

Greg Nickels wasn't vulnerable until he was, and McGinn came out of nowhere. McGinn was toxic for a long time, but he wasn't as bad a Mayor as his reputation suggests. It still took a big time establishment player like Murray to take him out - it's unlikely anybody else from that field could have had the advantage in a runoff.

And that's the thing - Murray's coalition is broad but thin, but it turns out. With a runoff, I'm not sure who keeps him beneath 50+1 in November, and I don't know what that winning anti-Murray coalition looks like.

But like I said, Mike With the Bike came out of nowhere in '09 with basically a single issue campaign


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on March 14, 2017, 12:07:12 PM
Agreed. As of now, there aren't any candidates that can take him out, but that doesn't mean that wont change. I don't think Oliver will be that person, but who knows. Seattle's thrown out it's last 2 incumbent mayors over issues that in retrospect, were pretty silly and less serious than homelessness and housing affordability.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 14, 2017, 01:29:48 PM
Nickels had definitely worn out his welcome by 09 and the Sonics fiasco was still a fresh wound

McGinn staking his Mayoralty on killing the tunnel sapped his capital, so it wasn't that silly. That was his big issue and he lost, by a lot, in the 2011 vote. He was dead man walking after that. It didn't help that he was famously abrasive to boot. I actually saw McGinn speak once... not a great orator.

Ironically he would probably have handled the current housing situation better than Murray. He seemed to get how important density was and had the modest support of lefty NIMBY rag The Stranger, which gave him wiggle room. Strangely, for how centrist I am, I actually wish McGinn was still mayor. He got the policy aspects right but never got the manager/PR bit right. Once he was "McSchwinn" he never really recovered in the public eye



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on March 15, 2017, 01:20:02 PM
Apparently the Brits over at The Guardian wrote a piece (https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/mar/14/gonzaga-basketball-march-madness-spokane-last-hope) about how Spokane sucks and has no hope but Gonzaga basketball. The Spokesman Review ripped them a new one (http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2017/mar/14/shawn-vestal-guardian-report-exposes-dreary-truth-/).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 15, 2017, 01:34:07 PM
Apparently the Brits over at The Guardian wrote a piece (https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/mar/14/gonzaga-basketball-march-madness-spokane-last-hope) about how Spokane sucks and has no hope but Gonzaga basketball. The Spokesman Review ripped them a new one (http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2017/mar/14/shawn-vestal-guardian-report-exposes-dreary-truth-/).

The Inlander went off on them too. It was a terrible article, made worse by the fact that the author is a Spokane native who graduated LC as recently as 2010!! Should know better!

BTW, speaking of GU - pro-tip don't pick them to go anywhere near the Final four in your bracket. They will screw you somehow. Always have always will


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 17, 2017, 11:08:45 AM
Our long Spokanite nightmare is over... the Guardian's editors issued an apology for the GU article!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Zioneer on March 17, 2017, 11:43:53 AM
This has probably been asked before, but why is it still '15 and not '17?

Also I really wish I knew more about Washingtonian politics since I was born there.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 17, 2017, 12:05:53 PM
This has probably been asked before, but why is it still '15 and not '17?

Also I really wish I knew more about Washingtonian politics since I was born there.

We need a good pithy name for '17...

My fave was still in '13: "Mike McGinn is a GMO"


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on March 17, 2017, 12:39:53 PM
The '13 continually cracked me up.

'17 could be something related to car tabs in honor of the Republican anti-transit crusade against Sound Transit and Seattle.

Or perhaps something about our future governor, Dow Constantine, and his immaculate hair.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 17, 2017, 01:40:25 PM
The '13 continually cracked me up.

'17 could be something related to car tabs in honor of the Republican anti-transit crusade against Sound Transit and Seattle.

Or perhaps something about our future governor, Dow Constantine, and his immaculate hair.

The new car tab prices are wayyyyy higher than I expected, to be fair. I helped my Texas-bred coworker find out who her legislators were so she could write complaints haha

Dow is immaculate, but I think a thread title about his perfection needs to wait until 2020


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on March 18, 2017, 04:28:55 PM
Washington '17: Trans Rights and Transit Fights


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on March 18, 2017, 04:31:27 PM
This has probably been asked before, but why is it still '15 and not '17?

Also I really wish I knew more about Washingtonian politics since I was born there.

Because only Meeker can edit the thread title, and he hasn't posted since September.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Virginiá on March 18, 2017, 04:54:26 PM
Because only Meeker can edit the thread title, and he hasn't posted since September.

I updated it to '17. If you guys want to make the title something different, I'm ok with that, at least unless Meeker comes back and objects.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on March 22, 2017, 09:12:08 PM
Daily Kos has calculated the Presidential vote by Legislative District:

In the State Senate, Republicans hold 7 districts Clinton carried, while Democrats hold 2 Trump seats (1, if you don't count Tim Sheldon as a Democrat). I've bolded the 9 ticket-splitting districts. Hillary carried 30/49 seats, compared to the 34 that Obama carried.

LD-01 (Palumbo) 61-30 Clinton
LD-02 (Becker) 53-37 Trump
LD-03 (Billig) 51-38 Clinton
LD-04 (Padden) 56-34 Trump
LD-05 (Mullet) 54-37 Clinton
LD-06 (Baumgartner) 46-44 Trump
LD-07 (Short) 63-29 Trump
LD-08 (Brown) 57-34 Trump
LD-09 (Schoesler) 56-35 Trump
LD-10 (Bailey) 46-45 Clinton
LD-11 (Hasegawa) 67-25 Clinton
LD-12 (Hawkins) 55-37 Trump
LD-13 (Warnick) 61-31 Trump
LD-14 (King) 54-38 Trump
LD-15 (Honeyford) 51-42 Trump
LD-16 (Walsh) 56-36 Trump
LD-17 (Wilson) 46-45 Trump
LD-18 (Rivers) 50-42 Trump
LD-19 (Takko) 50-41 Trump
LD-20 (Braun) 61-30 Trump
LD-21 (Liias) 62-30 Clinton
LD-22 (Hunt) 60-30 Clinton
LD-23 (Rolfes) 56-34 Clinton
LD-24 (Van De Wege) 48-43 Clinton
LD-25 (Zeiger) 46-45 Trump
LD-26 (Angel) 45.36 - 45.35 Clinton (10 vote difference!!!)
LD-27 (Darneille) 65-26 Clinton
LD-28 (O'Ban) 52-38 Clinton
LD-29 (Conway) 54-36 Clinton
LD-30 (Miloscia) 56-35 Clinton
LD-31 (Fortunato) 50-41 Trump
LD-32 (Chase) 71-21 Clinton
LD-33 (Keiser) 64-28 Clinton
LD-34 (Nelson) 79-14 Clinton
LD-35 (Sheldon) 46-44 Trump
LD-36 (Carlyle) 85-9 Clinton
LD-37 (Saldaña) 87-8 Clinton
LD-38 (McCoy) 53-37 Clinton
LD-39 (Pearson) 50-40 Trump
LD-40 (Ranker) 62-29 Clinton
LD-41 (Wellman) 67-26 Clinton
LD-42 (Ericksen) 47-44 Clinton
LD-43 (Pedersen) 88-5 Clinton
LD-44 (Hobbs) 50-40 Clinton
LD-45 (Rossi) 64-28 Clinton
LD-46 (Frockt) 81-12 Clinton
LD-47 (Fain) 54-38 Clinton
LD-48 (Kuderer) 68-25 Clinton
LD-49 (Cleveland) 54-37 Clinton

O'Ban ran 14 points ahead of Trump. Takko ran 14 points ahead of Clinton. And to his credit, Steve Litzow ran 22 points ahead of Trump and that wasn't enough to save him.

Surprised LD-42 is a Clinton seat. Obama carried it barely in 2012, and I guess I didn't realize how badly Trump under-performed in Lynden.

Edit: For those doing the math at home, this also means that in the State House there are 11 Republicans in Clinton districts and only 1 (Rep. Blake of LD-19) in a Trump district.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on March 22, 2017, 09:29:30 PM
Visualized:

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 23, 2017, 09:44:41 AM
Miloscia and mayyyybe Angel are the low hanging fruit, IMO. Erickson and Fain will be tougher outs, especially since Fain's brother is a big sports radio personality. Baumgartner - in a narrow Trump district - will be a difficult man to defeat


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on March 23, 2017, 07:19:39 PM
Miloscia and mayyyybe Angel are the low hanging fruit, IMO. Erickson and Fain will be tougher outs, especially since Fain's brother is a big sports radio personality. Baumgartner - in a narrow Trump district - will be a difficult man to defeat

The problem with SD-26 is that a lot of Hillary's support came from the Gig Harbor/Artondale area. Angel's a waaaaaay better fit for those suburbs than Trump was. I'd be very surprised if she went down.

Trump being under 40 in Fain's district is eye-grabbing. If the Seattle metro keeps growing, that seat will fall sooner or later.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on March 23, 2017, 07:28:45 PM
If Auburn and Kent go the way of the Eastside, then LD-40 may very well be on LD-44's track in 10 years from now. Fain, a well-liked moderate incumbent, much like Litzow, keeps hanging on until the eventual political tide knocks him out.

Also, O'Bann needs to be seriously challenged. He only won by 6-7 points in a D+14 district. I think Christine Kilduff would make for a good challenger.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on March 28, 2017, 05:43:36 PM
Couple of stories:


A PPP poll (https://www.scribd.com/document/343191033/WA-LD-45-PPP-for-New-Direction-PAC-March-2017) finds Manka Dhinga leading a theoretical matchup against placeholder incumbent Dino Rossi, 46-40.  Dhinga has received endorsements from Jay Inslee, Patty Murray, and Dow Constantine.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kim Wyman has been diagnoised with colon cancer. (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/secretary-of-state-kim-wyman-to-be-treated-for-colon-cancer/) She's undergoing treatment and says she is expected to make a full recovery.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Another entrant in the crowded primary for Tim Burgess's council seat: LGBT activist Mac McGregor (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/mcgregor-hopes-to-become-first-transgender-candidate-elected-to-seattle-city-council/). McGregor, a martial arts enthusiast and gym owner who sits on the Seattle Police Department’s LGBTQ Advisory Council, is transgender.

The story also notes that housing activist Jon Grant currently leads in fundraising, getting $76K almost entirely through Seattle's new democracy voucher program. Labor activist Teresa Mosqueda is in second with $53K, and physician Hisam Goueli in third with $11K. The other 7 candidates have less than $10K raised.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 28, 2017, 06:14:10 PM
Ugh, Jon Grant...

Wasn't O'Ban up in '16?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on March 28, 2017, 08:24:09 PM
Ugh, Jon Grant...

Wasn't O'Ban up in '16?

He was. He defeated Marisa Peloquin, a colonel in the Army Reserve, by a 4,000 vote margin. 52-47


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 28, 2017, 08:42:15 PM
Ugh, Jon Grant...

Wasn't O'Ban up in '16?

He was. He defeated Marisa Peloquin, a colonel in the Army Reserve, by a 4,000 vote margin. 52-47

That's too bad. No cracks at that tool til 2020


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on April 06, 2017, 05:16:50 PM
So, uh, yeah... (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/lawsuit-alleges-seattle-mayor-ed-murray-sexually-abused-troubled-teen-in-1980s/?utm_content=buffer50555)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 06, 2017, 05:39:17 PM
So, uh, yeah... (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/lawsuit-alleges-seattle-mayor-ed-murray-sexually-abused-troubled-teen-in-1980s/?utm_content=buffer50555)

JFC! This could have legs. Seems almost Jim West-Lite (similar circumstances in Spokane that took down a mayor).

Shame if it's true, I rather like Murray


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on April 06, 2017, 05:46:05 PM
Quote
The lawsuit gives details about Murray’s 1980s Capitol Hill apartment, accurately recalls Murray’s phone number from the time, and offers a description of his genitals.

Welp. We might be in for more than a drizzle.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on April 06, 2017, 06:01:29 PM
Yikes. This could be big... I hope this doesn't mean Nikkita Oliver comes out as the front runner in whatever happens next.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 06, 2017, 06:10:44 PM
Yikes. This could be big... I hope this doesn't mean Nikkita Oliver comes out as the front runner in whatever happens next.

Mike McGinn Part II: The Redemption


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on April 06, 2017, 06:11:58 PM
If Murray was hypothetically forced to resign over this, who would theoretically take his place? Hyeok Kim? Does anybody know anything about her?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on April 06, 2017, 06:23:14 PM
If Murray was hypothetically forced to resign over this, who would theoretically take his place? Hyeok Kim? Does anybody know anything about her?

She's got a tragic backstory involving spending a portion of her childhood as a homeless orphan. But other than that all I can tell of her is that's she's a Murray ally and thus likely has similar positions.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: NOVA Green on April 06, 2017, 11:17:18 PM
Yikes. This could be big... I hope this doesn't mean Nikkita Oliver comes out as the front runner in whatever happens next.

Wow--- this sounds potentially huge....

Not sure what your issue is with Nikkita, but my sister finally met her a few weeks back in one of the Indivisible meetings and/or Homeless activist meetings she has been involved in, and her street cred is definitely expanding in leaps and bounds among the energized base of the Democratic Party in Seattle...

Do you really think a Republican will will win the mayoral election in Seattle, or do you have legitimate concerns regarding her capability to lead the City compared to the other contenders????


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on April 06, 2017, 11:43:40 PM
Yikes. This could be big... I hope this doesn't mean Nikkita Oliver comes out as the front runner in whatever happens next.

Wow--- this sounds potentially huge....

Not sure what your issue is with Nikkita, but my sister finally met her a few weeks back in one of the Indivisible meetings and/or Homeless activist meetings she has been involved in, and her street cred is definitely expanding in leaps and bounds among the energized base of the Democratic Party in Seattle...

Do you really think a Republican will will win the mayoral election in Seattle, or do you have legitimate concerns regarding her capability to lead the City compared to the other contenders????

It's nearly impossible for a Republican to win city-wide in Seattle nowadays. The establishment Democrats and the lefties have pretty much squared off their respective corners of city politics, and the runoff is pretty much inevitably going to be one from each wing. The only question is whether the "left" candidate will be someone more in the Jayapal mold or the Sawant mold.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 07, 2017, 12:18:46 PM
IMO - Nikita Oliver is in the race because nobody else has the cachet to take on Murray. If this thing sinks him or wounds him to the point that he's a McGinn or a Nickles, I'd expect the deep bench in Seattle to take a run. We could be looking at ASOIAF, Seattle style... A Clash of Candidates? A Storm of SJWs? (I kid!)

Sally Bagshaw has been thought of as somebody with mayoral ambitions. This would make me barf, as she went from being one of the best CMs to a Port flak who became the ringleader of the obnoxious "Fem Five" that made their anti-sports fan victory lap on Samantha Bee last year. Bagshaw is establishment enough to probably pick up significant institutional support, but she'd be the worst option to build on Murray's good work in this neoliberal hack's opinion.

Gonzalez clearly has ambitions bigger than At-Large CM. Question is if she'd risk her seat, where she'll have a tough reelection campaign as is, for a run in what promises to be a wild jungle for Mayor. Burgess is walking this fall from the other AL seat, but could he win 50% in November with his reputation as a conservative (obviously by Seattle standards)?

Rob Johnson would be my ideal choice for literally any office - a great urbanist. Doubt he runs, along with the other CMs. Sawant is a wild card but after four years of her antics on the Council I doubt there's a winning coalition for her in a Top Two. Besides, I imagine she commands more influence in her current perch where she can grandstand for her diehards but isn't responsible for governing. Sawant for all her faults is a sharp lady and probably gets this.

There are a number of state leg types I could see coveting the office. Jamie Petersen is a Murray acolyte and has the same base, plus would keep the LGBT community happy. Jessyn Farrell has strong urbanist bonafides but would still be acceptable to the more hard-left crowd. I actually think she'd be one of the strongest contenders. Walkinshaw is an interesting case - name rec after his Congressional run, and he'd obviously be to the left of Murray, but is there still bad blood between him and Jayapal's contingent, with
Whom Sawant is obviously a respected voice?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on April 07, 2017, 12:56:23 PM
If Murray becomes nonviable, I expect Walkinshaw to run on an urbanist platform. He's got nothing to lose, and would be my ideal candidate (Rob Johnson needs to stay on the council, he's doing good work. Plus, he seems more like a legislator than an executive).

I don't dislike Nikkita Oliver, but her comments on supporting 25% manditory affordable housing in all developments is scary- unless you want to see Seattle reach SF levels of affordability. She also seems to be focusing more on the affordable requirement side than the more important upzone side, which further puts in to doubt her commitment to actually tackling the affordable housing crisis.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 07, 2017, 01:30:22 PM
If Murray becomes nonviable, I expect Walkinshaw to run on an urbanist platform. He's got nothing to lose, and would be my ideal candidate (Rob Johnson needs to stay on the council, he's doing good work. Plus, he seems more like a legislator than an executive).

I don't dislike Nikkita Oliver, but her comments on supporting 25% manditory affordable housing in all developments is scary- unless you want to see Seattle reach SF levels of affordability. She also seems to be focusing more on the affordable requirement side than the more important upzone side, which further puts in to doubt her commitment to actually tackling the affordable housing crisis.

Yeah, I'm not a fan of her. Too illiterate on urban issues, though I know she's coming from a well meaning place (rather than pure NIMBYism). Again, I suspect her running is because anti-Murray factions need a warm body to run against him. Walkinshaw would be favored in a race with her IMO


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on April 10, 2017, 11:21:09 AM
Spokesman-Review wrote an article about my maps. (http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2017/apr/10/washington-state-graduate-designs-map-showing-prec/)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 10, 2017, 12:40:20 PM
Spokesman-Review wrote an article about my maps. (http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2017/apr/10/washington-state-graduate-designs-map-showing-prec/)

Congratulations! Good luck on your dissertation


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 11, 2017, 05:57:40 PM
Per Chris Daniels, Murray to make announcement at 5:30 related to the allegations


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on April 11, 2017, 10:15:03 PM
Per Chris Daniels, Murray to make announcement at 5:30 related to the allegations

Murray denied the allegations, and said a medical exam has shown that his penis does not have a mole like the accuser said he did.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 11, 2017, 10:39:16 PM
Per Chris Daniels, Murray to make announcement at 5:30 related to the allegations

Murray denied the allegations, and said a medical exam has shown that his penis does not have a mole like the accuser said he did.

Really? (Was indisposed to follow this tonight). If you'd told be in Jan that a politician would call a news conference and discuss what his penis looks like I would have bet it was Trump rather than Ed Murray


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on April 11, 2017, 11:08:15 PM
Per Chris Daniels, Murray to make announcement at 5:30 related to the allegations

Murray denied the allegations, and said a medical exam has shown that his penis does not have a mole like the accuser said he did.

Really? (Was indisposed to follow this tonight). If you'd told be in Jan that a politician would call a news conference and discuss what his penis looks like I would have bet it was Trump rather than Ed Murray

Remember: Bill Clinton's penis curves slightly to the left. That's on court record.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In non-penis related news:

Republicans have chosen their candidate for the LD-45 special: Jinyoung Lee Englund (https://patch.com/washington/woodinville/45th-district-senate-race-republican-candidate-has-rossis-support).

Englund is a former staffer for Cathy McMorris Rodgers, and a major advocate of Bitcoins. In 2015, she made The Hill's "50 Most Beautiful" list. (http://thehill.com/50-most-beautiful/2015/249385-jinyoung-lee-englund) (Yes, The Hill is that trashy).

Englund has received Rossi's endorsement.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 12, 2017, 08:51:07 AM
Per Chris Daniels, Murray to make announcement at 5:30 related to the allegations

Murray denied the allegations, and said a medical exam has shown that his penis does not have a mole like the accuser said he did.

Really? (Was indisposed to follow this tonight). If you'd told be in Jan that a politician would call a news conference and discuss what his penis looks like I would have bet it was Trump rather than Ed Murray

Remember: Bill Clinton's penis curves slightly to the left. That's on court record.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In non-penis related news:

Republicans have chosen their candidate for the LD-45 special: Jinyoung Lee Englund (https://patch.com/washington/woodinville/45th-district-senate-race-republican-candidate-has-rossis-support).

Englund is a former staffer for Cathy McMorris Rodgers, and a major advocate of Bitcoins. In 2015, she made The Hill's "50 Most Beautiful" list. (http://thehill.com/50-most-beautiful/2015/249385-jinyoung-lee-englund) (Yes, The Hill is that trashy).

Englund has received Rossi's endorsement.

Well TBF she IS very pretty, I do have to say.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 12, 2017, 09:46:36 AM
Really remarkable how much 45th has changed. Both top candidates are POC women.

I'll be moving from the 45th to the 1st soon, but if I remained in the 45th Dhingra would easily have my vote


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on April 12, 2017, 10:17:11 AM
I think we need to see Ed Murray's penis just to make sure he's not lying.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on April 12, 2017, 10:32:04 AM
The fact were talking about Murray's penis probably means he's toast, right?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 12, 2017, 10:41:51 AM
The fact were talking about Murray's penis probably means he's toast, right?

TBD. The loony left in Seattle probably can't beat him with Oliver (Sawant knows she commands far more influence from the Council than she would as an executive and will never run for Mayor) and if he became toxic the "establishment" would find somebody viable instead. I would imagine one of Petersen, Walkinshaw or Farrell become the choice. Two are LGBT, ones a woman and all are sufficiently progressive to win more mainline liberals as well as the lefties,, but not as out to lunch as the SAP or hard activist crowd


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 12, 2017, 12:09:39 PM
Please everyone email your representatives and senators today to ask them to vote NO on the knee jerk car tab bill. It isn't ST's fault voters couldn't be bothered to study the MVET calculator on their website. I agree that the jump in tabs was a bit steep but figuring out a better calculation deserves more study and debate than this crap going down in olympia right now


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 13, 2017, 11:35:47 AM
We should rename this thread either "The Saga of Ed Murray's Penis" or "Car Tabs are Literally Hitler"


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on April 13, 2017, 05:03:44 PM
Apparently if Murray resigns the position would go to the most senior member of the City Council, who is Bruce Harrell.

I have no idea what the hell the Deputy Mayor position is for then.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 13, 2017, 06:55:17 PM
No kidding. Maybe ribbon cutting


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: kyc0705 on April 13, 2017, 07:03:04 PM

I really want to meet the politician whose career has currently peaked as Seattle's executive ribbon-cutter.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: heatcharger on April 14, 2017, 02:07:51 PM
The WA Senate might flip to Democratic control in the Fall. A PPP poll of WA-45 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Memo_WALD45_3.13.17.pdf):

Dhingra (D) 46%
Rossi (R, inc.) 40%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on April 14, 2017, 02:17:10 PM
The WA Senate might flip to Democratic control in the Fall. A PPP poll of WA-45 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Memo_WALD45_3.13.17.pdf):

Dhingra (D) 46%
Rossi (R, inc.) 40%

Already covered it. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=76921.msg5587318#msg5587318)

Also Rossi is just the placeholder. He's not running. And "Might flip" is looking like "will flip"


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: heatcharger on April 14, 2017, 02:21:20 PM
Already covered it. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=76921.msg5587318#msg5587318)

Also Rossi is just the placeholder. He's not running. And "Might flip" is looking like "will flip"

Ah, my bad. So do you know who's gonna take Rossi's place?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on April 14, 2017, 02:44:14 PM
Already covered it. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=76921.msg5587318#msg5587318)

Also Rossi is just the placeholder. He's not running. And "Might flip" is looking like "will flip"

Ah, my bad. So do you know who's gonna take Rossi's place?


|
|
V

Per Chris Daniels, Murray to make announcement at 5:30 related to the allegations

Murray denied the allegations, and said a medical exam has shown that his penis does not have a mole like the accuser said he did.

Really? (Was indisposed to follow this tonight). If you'd told be in Jan that a politician would call a news conference and discuss what his penis looks like I would have bet it was Trump rather than Ed Murray

Remember: Bill Clinton's penis curves slightly to the left. That's on court record.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In non-penis related news:

Republicans have chosen their candidate for the LD-45 special: Jinyoung Lee Englund (https://patch.com/washington/woodinville/45th-district-senate-race-republican-candidate-has-rossis-support).

Englund is a former staffer for Cathy McMorris Rodgers, and a major advocate of Bitcoins. In 2015, she made The Hill's "50 Most Beautiful" list. (http://thehill.com/50-most-beautiful/2015/249385-jinyoung-lee-englund) (Yes, The Hill is that trashy).

Englund has received Rossi's endorsement.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 14, 2017, 08:58:18 PM
Englund is a decent recruit. Still think Dhingra has to be the favorite at this time


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on April 15, 2017, 01:12:42 AM
Englund is a decent recruit. Still think Dhingra has to be the favorite at this time

Interesting. Republican candidate in districts like this must be very moderate (on Litzow level, or even higher), at least on all social isuues, to simply have a reasonable chance... And even that (again - Litzow) may be not enough...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 16, 2017, 11:10:34 AM
Englund is a decent recruit. Still think Dhingra has to be the favorite at this time

Interesting. Republican candidate in districts like this must be very moderate (on Litzow level, or even higher), at least on all social isuues, to simply have a reasonable chance... And even that (again - Litzow) may be not enough...

My understanding is Englund is right of Litzow


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on April 16, 2017, 03:29:58 PM
Englund is a decent recruit. Still think Dhingra has to be the favorite at this time

Interesting. Republican candidate in districts like this must be very moderate (on Litzow level, or even higher), at least on all social isuues, to simply have a reasonable chance... And even that (again - Litzow) may be not enough...

My understanding is Englund is right of Litzow

Then her chances are not good...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 17, 2017, 11:49:56 AM
Mike McSchwinn just tweeted "Keep Seattle. McGinn 2017"

This may surprise many considering my fairly centrist views but I'd be very happy to see McGinn back in the Mayor's office. For as much of an abrasive weirdo as he is he had serious backbone on urbanism and the arena.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on April 17, 2017, 12:21:39 PM
Mike McSchwinn just tweeted "Keep Seattle. McGinn 2017"

This may surprise many considering my fairly centrist views but I'd be very happy to see McGinn back in the Mayor's office. For as much of an abrasive weirdo as he is he had serious backbone on urbanism and the arena.
Agreed, he's got my support, perhaps. Let's see what he runs on.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 17, 2017, 12:52:48 PM
Bit OT but does anyone know who draws Council districts for 2021 and onwards? IIRC the districts now used came with the initiative that switched to the district system. Have to imagine uneven growth patterns in Seattle will leave us a radically different map


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 17, 2017, 01:14:16 PM
It's official: McGinn is in.

MY KING IS ALIVE

Murray releases statement. I'll say this:: was hoping for this, but did not expect it. McGinn, for all his eccentricities, was a great Mayor. This probably kills Oliver's oxygen and gives the same progressives a champion in case the Legend of Ed Murray's Penis takes a serious bite out of him.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on April 17, 2017, 01:44:08 PM
Unless penisgate disappears entirely, my gut is that McGinn will beat Murray rather easily.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 17, 2017, 01:54:22 PM
The SLOG (I broke my personal prohibition on visiting the Stranger to get their take on this event) interpreted McGinn's new slogan of "Keep Seattle" to be a NIMBY canard. I dunno about that, since McGinn said that Seattle "can't be the next SF," and he wasn't exactly a NIMBY pawn last time. It was just odd seeing the Stranger take a stance other than frothing anti-developer, yuppie-despising outrage


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on April 17, 2017, 02:05:53 PM
Stranger endorsed McGinn against Murray last time.

Worth nothing that McGinn would probably be a lot friendlier to the Sawant faction of the council than Murray is.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 17, 2017, 02:13:33 PM
Stranger endorsed McGinn against Murray last time.

Worth nothing that McGinn would probably be a lot friendlier to the Sawant faction of the council than Murray is.

Weren't they pretty much responsible for his 2009 upset win over Nickels? If I recall their exposure and endorsements of him were what pushed him into power.

As for your second point... yeah, he's not perfect. I don't live in Seattle so I'm more of an observer than anything. McGinn lines up more with me on two issues I'm passionate about (Sodo arena & urbanism) and I get the sense Murray's sheen has seriously worn off since his banner 2014 year


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Maxwell on April 19, 2017, 03:32:56 PM
Could I get a re-cap of why McGinn lost in 2013 in the first place and why polls had him so so far behind Murray (he ultimately kept his loss respectable).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on April 19, 2017, 03:56:45 PM
Could I get a re-cap of why McGinn lost in 2013 in the first place and why polls had him so so far behind Murray (he ultimately kept his loss respectable).

-McGinn is known for having a somewhat abrasive personality that left him with little support from the Seattle establishment or from Olympia. Murray on the other hand was/is one of the top Democrats in the state.

-One of McGinn's biggest platforms was opposition to a tunnel being built to replace the aging Highway 99 viaduct. Voters ended up approving the tunnel by a wide margin.

-Murray was able to cast himself a downtown friendly progressive while still racking up endorsements from the Chamber of Commerce and the like.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on April 20, 2017, 01:52:03 PM
Fremont Brewing Owner Sara Nelson Joins Race for City Council: https://www.seattlemet.com/articles/2017/4/20/fremont-brewing-owner-sara-nelson-joins-race-for-city-council (https://www.seattlemet.com/articles/2017/4/20/fremont-brewing-owner-sara-nelson-joins-race-for-city-council)



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on April 20, 2017, 02:04:13 PM
Fremont Brewing Owner Sara Nelson Joins Race for City Council: https://www.seattlemet.com/articles/2017/4/20/fremont-brewing-owner-sara-nelson-joins-race-for-city-council[/url

 (https://www.seattlemet.com/articles/2017/4/20/fremont-brewing-owner-sara-nelson-joins-race-for-city-council)

Quote
She’s listed concerns about the $15 minimum wage and paid family leave,

Pass.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 20, 2017, 05:49:09 PM
Fremont Brewing Owner Sara Nelson Joins Race for City Council: https://www.seattlemet.com/articles/2017/4/20/fremont-brewing-owner-sara-nelson-joins-race-for-city-council[/url

 (https://www.seattlemet.com/articles/2017/4/20/fremont-brewing-owner-sara-nelson-joins-race-for-city-council)

Quote
She’s listed concerns about the $15 minimum wage and paid family leave,

Pass.

Why is she wasting her time? Does she not know what city she's running in? She'd have a hard time winning a Spokane CC race with that platform

I assume she's targeting the open AL seat rather than trying to take down Gonzalez?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 20, 2017, 05:50:59 PM
That being said, if she gets a kook like John Grant in the runoff she has a good shot. Mosquera would probably beat her


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on April 20, 2017, 07:07:42 PM
That being said, if she gets a kook like John Grant in the runoff she has a good shot. Mosquera would probably beat her

I'm actually starting to think it might be Grant's race to lose, honestly.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on April 21, 2017, 10:30:13 AM
Rep. Jesse Young (R) of LD-26 has some severe anger issues (http://www.thenewstribune.com/news/politics-government/article145917604.html)

He is reportedly under House investigation for mistreating his staffers.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: windjammer on April 21, 2017, 10:33:09 AM
Rep. Jesse Young (R) of LD-26 has some severe anger issues (http://www.thenewstribune.com/news/politics-government/article145917604.html)

He is reportedly under House investigation for mistreating his staffers.
Clinton carried it by 0.1 point!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 21, 2017, 12:19:33 PM
That being said, if she gets a kook like John Grant in the runoff she has a good shot. Mosquera would probably beat her

I'm actually starting to think it might be Grant's race to lose, honestly.

Ugh


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on April 21, 2017, 12:57:39 PM
That being said, if she gets a kook like John Grant in the runoff she has a good shot. Mosquera would probably beat her

I'm actually starting to think it might be Grant's race to lose, honestly.

Ugh

Really? That's not the feeling I get. Sure, he has the most name recognition, but as a candidate he's less well liked than during his 2014 run. Idk, it's early on and there's been no polling.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on April 22, 2017, 05:43:00 PM
Eastern Washintonians, how much of this Stranger article on "turning Eastern Washington blue" - with Spokane council member Ben Stuckart - is sensationalism?

http://www.thestranger.com/news/2017/04/19/25083375/meet-the-man-who-could-turn-eastern-washington-blue (http://www.thestranger.com/news/2017/04/19/25083375/meet-the-man-who-could-turn-eastern-washington-blue)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on April 22, 2017, 05:49:12 PM
Eastern Washintoners, how much of this Stranger article on "turning Eastern Washington blue" - with Spokane council member Ben Stuckart - is sensationalism?

http://www.thestranger.com/news/2017/04/19/25083375/meet-the-man-who-could-turn-eastern-washington-blue (http://www.thestranger.com/news/2017/04/19/25083375/meet-the-man-who-could-turn-eastern-washington-blue)
Shades of Marcus Ricelli 2026 in here :P
(era of a new majority reference)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 23, 2017, 10:53:02 AM
Eastern Washintonians, how much of this Stranger article on "turning Eastern Washington blue" - with Spokane council member Ben Stuckart - is sensationalism?

http://www.thestranger.com/news/2017/04/19/25083375/meet-the-man-who-could-turn-eastern-washington-blue (http://www.thestranger.com/news/2017/04/19/25083375/meet-the-man-who-could-turn-eastern-washington-blue)

I'll believe it when I see it. Stuckart could waltz into the Mayor's office in '19, he practically already runs the city (Spokane's council has a 6-1 liberal majority - on the eve of the '13 muni elections, it was 4-3 conservative). Cathy is no slouch.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 23, 2017, 10:53:48 AM
Eastern Washintoners, how much of this Stranger article on "turning Eastern Washington blue" - with Spokane council member Ben Stuckart - is sensationalism?

http://www.thestranger.com/news/2017/04/19/25083375/meet-the-man-who-could-turn-eastern-washington-blue (http://www.thestranger.com/news/2017/04/19/25083375/meet-the-man-who-could-turn-eastern-washington-blue)
Shades of Marcus Ricelli 2026 in here :P
(era of a new majority reference)

Hehehe I see what you did there.

Ricelli would be a better candidate, IMO. I've met his dad a few times. Nice family.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on April 23, 2017, 11:22:22 AM
Eh, Trump isn't that unpopular out here, so CMR being so closely tied to him won't matter that much unless he really tanks in the polls. Plus she's still very popular personally. If anyone's gonna knock her off, I doubt it would be someone so closely tied to Spokane.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 23, 2017, 12:56:30 PM
Eh, Trump isn't that unpopular out here, so CMR being so closely tied to him won't matter that much unless he really tanks in the polls. Plus she's still very popular personally. If anyone's gonna knock her off, I doubt it would be someone so closely tied to Spokane.

This. Stuckart is polarizing enough in Spokane.

He'd be better than Joe Pakootas, but I'm very skeptical he can pull it off. CMR has some of the best constituent outreach in the nation and she's personally popular.

Plus local government is littered with her protégés. As nice of a man as he is (and he's a truly delightful man) George Nethercutt never built her kind of infrastructure there


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on April 23, 2017, 01:00:34 PM
Eastern Washintoners, how much of this Stranger article on "turning Eastern Washington blue" - with Spokane council member Ben Stuckart - is sensationalism?

http://www.thestranger.com/news/2017/04/19/25083375/meet-the-man-who-could-turn-eastern-washington-blue (http://www.thestranger.com/news/2017/04/19/25083375/meet-the-man-who-could-turn-eastern-washington-blue)
Shades of Marcus Ricelli 2026 in here :P
(era of a new majority reference)

Hehehe I see what you did there.

Ricelli would be a better candidate, IMO. I've met his dad a few times. Nice family.
What is stopping him from running anyway?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on April 23, 2017, 08:42:46 PM
Eastern Washintoners, how much of this Stranger article on "turning Eastern Washington blue" - with Spokane council member Ben Stuckart - is sensationalism?

http://www.thestranger.com/news/2017/04/19/25083375/meet-the-man-who-could-turn-eastern-washington-blue (http://www.thestranger.com/news/2017/04/19/25083375/meet-the-man-who-could-turn-eastern-washington-blue)
Shades of Marcus Ricelli 2026 in here :P
(era of a new majority reference)

Hehehe I see what you did there.

Ricelli would be a better candidate, IMO. I've met his dad a few times. Nice family.
What is stopping him from running anyway?

He's a rising star in the House and would be giving up a safe seat.

Edit: wouldn't be surprised to see him run for Mayor of Spokane in '19, though, especially now that Stuckart is out and there's no clear frontrunner


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on May 01, 2017, 02:11:50 PM
RIP Mike Lowry (http://www.theolympian.com/news/local/article147853694.html)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on May 03, 2017, 07:10:52 PM
Dave Reichert's non-committal on the AHCA is front-page news on the Seattle Times today. They've consistently endorsed him for re-election in years prior.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on May 06, 2017, 02:24:03 AM
Reposting this here:

WA-05: Washington State University-Spokane Chancellor Lisa Brown (http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2017/may/04/lisa-brown-stepping-down-as-wsu-spokane-chancellor/) is resigning from her post, and says she's weighing a bid against Cathy McMorris Rodgers. Brown was previously a state legislator for 20 years, serving as Senate Majority Leader from '05 to '13.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 06, 2017, 06:18:57 PM
Reposting this here:

WA-05: Washington State University-Spokane Chancellor Lisa Brown (http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2017/may/04/lisa-brown-stepping-down-as-wsu-spokane-chancellor/) is resigning from her post, and says she's weighing a bid against Cathy McMorris Rodgers. Brown was previously a state legislator for 20 years, serving as Senate Majority Leader from '05 to '13.

*whistles*

Brown would be a big get. Her tenure as Majority Leader could hurt her but she'd be a vastly better candidate than Stuckart (who frankly should run for Mayor). Lisa Brown would not lack for fundraising and institutional support. This is the biggest name Dems could get for this seat outside of mayyybe Andy Billig


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 09, 2017, 11:58:03 AM
State senator Bob Hasegawa, representing parts of South Seattle has entered the mayoral race:

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-sen-bob-hasegawa-running-for-seattle-mayor/

In even more interesting news, today at 10:30 AM, Murray will be making an announcement. The buzz I'm hearing is that he will not be running for reelection. Though that could be totally off.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 09, 2017, 12:35:29 PM
Murray out.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 09, 2017, 12:52:30 PM

WHOA!

Queue some heavyweights getting in. Hasegawa and McGinn should frighten nobody. Walkinshaw could do well, as could Petersen. Jessyn Farrell could be interesting too


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on May 09, 2017, 01:05:42 PM
RIP Ed Murray

I think I might like Hasegawa over McGinn. Hard to say, if Walkinshaw gets in that'd make things harder.

Hasegawa might have a slight disadvantage;the only part of Seattle in his district is Chapel Hill.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 09, 2017, 01:17:36 PM
Should add Hasegawa is utterly hostile to Sound Transit despite his left wing credentials - this is not a man anyone should trust with urbanist issues in Seattle


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 09, 2017, 01:19:19 PM
I live in Kirkland, so I don't have a vote, but Seattle leads the charge around here and what happens there matters to urban issues and Transit throughout the region. That's why I like McGinn even though he's an abrasive weirdo.

If I had to rank...

1. Hypothetical Walkinshaw
2. McGinn
3. Hasegawa


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 09, 2017, 01:32:05 PM
1. Walkinshaw (now's his time)
2. Cary Moon
3. McGinn
4. Oliver
5. Hasegawa


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 09, 2017, 01:35:48 PM
1. Walkinshaw (now's his time)
2. Cary Moon
3. McGinn
4. Oliver
5. Hasegawa

What's Cary Moon's niche? Haven't heard anything about him/her.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 09, 2017, 01:44:45 PM
She's an urban planner/landscape architect:

http://www.thestranger.com/slog/2017/04/19/25084739/cary-moon-is-running-for-mayor-of-seattle-an-interview-with-the-brand-newest-murray-challenger


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 09, 2017, 02:01:31 PM
She's an urban planner/landscape architect:

http://www.thestranger.com/slog/2017/04/19/25084739/cary-moon-is-running-for-mayor-of-seattle-an-interview-with-the-brand-newest-murray-challenger

Thank you for sharing. Points to the Stranger's interviewer (I've been clear on here that I'm not a fan) asking tough questions and her giving straight answers. I think she gets the issues better than most (I have about zero confidence in Oliver or Hasegawa on urban issues)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 09, 2017, 03:12:58 PM
Per DKE - former US Attorney and AG shortlister Jenny Durkan sounds close to getting in for Mayor. She would probably clear the field on the establishment and LGBT sides (there's plenty of overlap there) and would probably become the instant front runner. I imagine Harrell and Walkinshaw both defer to her


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on May 09, 2017, 04:35:02 PM
Yeah I forgot about Hasegawa's opposition to light rail. Rules him out for me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 10, 2017, 04:11:57 PM
Anyone know when the filing deadline is? Curious how long Durkan and Walkinshaw have to decide whether to pull the trigger

Harrell (ugh) might run, too


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on May 10, 2017, 04:52:16 PM
Anyone know when the filing deadline is? Curious how long Durkan and Walkinshaw have to decide whether to pull the trigger

Harrell (ugh) might run, too

Filing deadline is May 19th for all King County elections this year.

Harrell will probably run. He came in 3rd last time, and with Burgess retiring Harrell will be forced to hold the title of most conservative voice on the council (Not a way to gain popularity in Seattle). I'd imagine he would be able to pick up a lot of Murray voters, certainly more than McGinn can.

If Harrell doesn't get in, I'd expect Lorena Gonzalez or Hyeok Kim to get in and run on continuing Murray's policies. I'd like to see Jamie Pedersen or Brady Walkinshaw get in, but I haven't seen their names being tossed around much outside of here.

I'd love if Mike O'Brien ran, but I think McGinn eats into his niche too much.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 10, 2017, 06:01:06 PM
Anyone know when the filing deadline is? Curious how long Durkan and Walkinshaw have to decide whether to pull the trigger

Harrell (ugh) might run, too

Filing deadline is May 19th for all King County elections this year.

Harrell will probably run. He came in 3rd last time, and with Burgess retiring Harrell will be forced to hold the title of most conservative voice on the council (Not a way to gain popularity in Seattle). I'd imagine he would be able to pick up a lot of Murray voters, certainly more than McGinn can.

If Harrell doesn't get in, I'd expect Lorena Gonzalez or Hyeok Kim to get in and run on continuing Murray's policies. I'd like to see Jamie Pedersen or Brady Walkinshaw get in, but I haven't seen their names being tossed around much outside of here.

I'd love if Mike O'Brien ran, but I think McGinn eats into his niche too much.

Lorena wouldn't be bad. I'm still a little peeves over her arena vote and subsequent "sports fans hate women!" victory lap on Samantha Bee but she's the best of the ladies on the council. The risk is somebody worse getting her seat this fall. Just happy Port shill Bagshaw isn't running :P

O'Brien has gotten better. He and McGinn def overlap a bit, though O'Brien would be superior. He gets the balance between equity and urbanism better than most of the Sawant camp


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 11, 2017, 04:04:30 PM
Anyone know when the filing deadline is? Curious how long Durkan and Walkinshaw have to decide whether to pull the trigger

Harrell (ugh) might run, too

Filing deadline is May 19th for all King County elections this year.

Harrell will probably run. He came in 3rd last time, and with Burgess retiring Harrell will be forced to hold the title of most conservative voice on the council (Not a way to gain popularity in Seattle). I'd imagine he would be able to pick up a lot of Murray voters, certainly more than McGinn can.

If Harrell doesn't get in, I'd expect Lorena Gonzalez or Hyeok Kim to get in and run on continuing Murray's policies. I'd like to see Jamie Pedersen or Brady Walkinshaw get in, but I haven't seen their names being tossed around much outside of here.

I'd love if Mike O'Brien ran, but I think McGinn eats into his niche too much.

Lorena wouldn't be bad. I'm still a little peeves over her arena vote and subsequent "sports fans hate women!" victory lap on Samantha Bee but she's the best of the ladies on the council. The risk is somebody worse getting her seat this fall. Just happy Port shill Bagshaw isn't running :P

O'Brien has gotten better. He and McGinn def overlap a bit, though O'Brien would be superior. He gets the balance between equity and urbanism better than most of the Sawant camp

And Jenny Durkan is running for mayor: http://crosscut.com/2017/05/former-u-s-attorney-jenny-durkan-is-running-for-mayor/

I don't think Harrell will run. He knows he can't win AND he is really not a strong candidate. He barely won his last election against a nobody candidate (who to her credit, turned out to be pretty good).

Lorena likely won't get in, but she'd be a decent candidate. O'Brien definitely isn't going to jump in with his buddy - McGinn - running.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 11, 2017, 05:14:08 PM
Anyone know when the filing deadline is? Curious how long Durkan and Walkinshaw have to decide whether to pull the trigger

Harrell (ugh) might run, too

Filing deadline is May 19th for all King County elections this year.

Harrell will probably run. He came in 3rd last time, and with Burgess retiring Harrell will be forced to hold the title of most conservative voice on the council (Not a way to gain popularity in Seattle). I'd imagine he would be able to pick up a lot of Murray voters, certainly more than McGinn can.

If Harrell doesn't get in, I'd expect Lorena Gonzalez or Hyeok Kim to get in and run on continuing Murray's policies. I'd like to see Jamie Pedersen or Brady Walkinshaw get in, but I haven't seen their names being tossed around much outside of here.

I'd love if Mike O'Brien ran, but I think McGinn eats into his niche too much.

Lorena wouldn't be bad. I'm still a little peeves over her arena vote and subsequent "sports fans hate women!" victory lap on Samantha Bee but she's the best of the ladies on the council. The risk is somebody worse getting her seat this fall. Just happy Port shill Bagshaw isn't running :P

O'Brien has gotten better. He and McGinn def overlap a bit, though O'Brien would be superior. He gets the balance between equity and urbanism better than most of the Sawant camp

And Jenny Durkan is running for mayor: http://crosscut.com/2017/05/former-u-s-attorney-jenny-durkan-is-running-for-mayor/

I don't think Harrell will run. He knows he can't win AND he is really not a strong candidate. He barely won his last election against a nobody candidate (who to her credit, turned out to be pretty good).

Lorena likely won't get in, but she'd be a decent candidate. O'Brien definitely isn't going to jump in with his buddy - McGinn - running.

Durkan is officially my horse in this race I can't vote in (to nobody's surprise)

Lorena has a bright future. She's young, her time will come. Durkan getting in probably precludes a Walkinshaw run, which is too bad. I was impressed by him. Maybe he should take on Grant for the other at large seat?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 11, 2017, 05:26:27 PM
Just realized there's a special in 2017 in the 31st LD. Is there any chance of Democrats flipping this seat? Do they even have a candidate yet?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on May 11, 2017, 05:42:42 PM
The Durkin article also mentions the possibility of Rep. Jessyn Farrell getting in. Farrell was a major supporter of Walkinshaw's congressional run.

Currently my preferences (Like KS I live nowhere near Seattle):

1) McGinn
2) Oliver
3) Durkin

Hasegawa would be #1 if not for his Sound Transit stance. Durkin seems competent but her attorney background might make her a bit too law-and-ordery for my tastes.

Just realized there's a special in 2017 in the 31st LD. Is there any chance of Democrats flipping this seat? Do they even have a candidate yet?

I doubt it. 31st is rough territory. Half of Auburn, Enumclaw, Bonney Lake, and all the rural area in between. It also slid from a narrow Obama '12 seat to one Trump carried, even as he was getting destroyed in King County.

Side note: I hate the way this district is drawn, there's no reason to have two State Senators from Auburn.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 11, 2017, 06:25:13 PM
1) Still Cary Moon, who's an actual urbanist.
2) Durkan, she could rise/fall depending on her housing/transit views
3) McGinn, what does Keep Seattle even mean??? That kind of worries me.
4) Oliver, I like her as a candidate and her unequivocal BLM agenda, I just wish she could hop aboard the housing train
5) Hasegawa, no, just no.

Candidates not in:

Harrell: light weight, no.
Gonzalez: she's building her name and chops, I agree with KS, she's got a bright future. Would love to see her run in 4 or 8 years.
Walkinshaw: Dream candidate. He's FBBPW (Flawless Beautiful Brady Pinero Walkinshaw)
Farrell: who now? That's what most people probably think. I imagine she'd do a fine job.
Pederson: yes, but I don't think he has any desire to leave Olympia
Kim: Negative chance. What does a LM even do? Help craft policy?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 11, 2017, 07:31:34 PM
1) Still Cary Moon, who's an actual urbanist.
2) Durkan, she could rise/fall depending on her housing/transit views
3) McGinn, what does Keep Seattle even mean??? That kind of worries me.
4) Oliver, I like her as a candidate and her unequivocal BLM agenda, I just wish she could hop aboard the housing train
5) Hasegawa, no, just no.

Candidates not in:

Harrell: light weight, no.
Gonzalez: she's building her name and chops, I agree with KS, she's got a bright future. Would love to see her run in 4 or 8 years.
Walkinshaw: Dream candidate. He's FBBPW (Flawless Beautiful Brady Pinero Walkinshaw)
Farrell: who now? That's what most people probably think. I imagine she'd do a fine job.
Pederson: yes, but I don't think he has any desire to leave Olympia
Kim: Negative chance. What does a LM even do? Help craft policy?

We need to make Flawless Beautiful Brady <333 a thing

Farrell is popular with STB (Seattle Transit Blog). Unlike Hasegawa, her entire district is in town. She'd be good if Flawless Beautiful Brady <333 doesn't get in

Oliver's housing platform makes her an utter nonstarter and unserious candidate IMO. Besides her turf is going to be seriously eaten into by McSchwinn and Bobby-H


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 11, 2017, 07:32:27 PM
The Durkin article also mentions the possibility of Rep. Jessyn Farrell getting in. Farrell was a major supporter of Walkinshaw's congressional run.

Currently my preferences (Like KS I live nowhere near Seattle):

1) McGinn
2) Oliver
3) Durkin

Hasegawa would be #1 if not for his Sound Transit stance. Durkin seems competent but her attorney background might make her a bit too law-and-ordery for my tastes.

Just realized there's a special in 2017 in the 31st LD. Is there any chance of Democrats flipping this seat? Do they even have a candidate yet?

I doubt it. 31st is rough territory. Half of Auburn, Enumclaw, Bonney Lake, and all the rural area in between. It also slid from a narrow Obama '12 seat to one Trump carried, even as he was getting destroyed in King County.

Side note: I hate the way this district is drawn, there's no reason to have two State Senators from Auburn.

The map isn't even a gerrymander, it's just a sh*t map


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on May 11, 2017, 09:21:12 PM
The same article that mentioned Farrell also mentioned Sen. David Frockt, who I think would excite no one and have zero constituency.

The map isn't even a gerrymander, it's just a sh*t map

The one good thing that could come about if Hasegawa was elected Mayor is that the commission might have less of an impetus for drawing the ugly forced majority-minority 11th. Dismantling that would make for a much cleaner looking King county, at least.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 11, 2017, 10:40:11 PM
The same article that mentioned Farrell also mentioned Sen. David Frockt, who I think would excite no one and have zero constituency.

The map isn't even a gerrymander, it's just a sh*t map

The one good thing that could come about if Hasegawa was elected Mayor is that the commission might have less of an impetus for drawing the ugly forced majority-minority 11th. Dismantling that would make for a much cleaner looking King county, at least.

Who?

Anyways, they should just refuse to give the commission the home addresses of incumbents. King Co's map is hideous but there's some stinkers in EWA and I'm still not sure what they were thinking with that horseshoe thing down in Clark


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on May 11, 2017, 10:58:36 PM
The same article that mentioned Farrell also mentioned Sen. David Frockt, who I think would excite no one and have zero constituency.

The map isn't even a gerrymander, it's just a sh*t map

The one good thing that could come about if Hasegawa was elected Mayor is that the commission might have less of an impetus for drawing the ugly forced majority-minority 11th. Dismantling that would make for a much cleaner looking King county, at least.

Who?

Anyways, they should just refuse to give the commission the home addresses of incumbents. King Co's map is hideous but there's some stinkers in EWA and I'm still not sure what they were thinking with that horseshoe thing down in Clark

Except the legislature chooses who is on the commission so they pick people who will fight for their interests.

While we're listing complaints, the 9th, 2nd, and 1st are all horror shows.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 11, 2017, 11:08:28 PM
The same article that mentioned Farrell also mentioned Sen. David Frockt, who I think would excite no one and have zero constituency.

The map isn't even a gerrymander, it's just a sh*t map

The one good thing that could come about if Hasegawa was elected Mayor is that the commission might have less of an impetus for drawing the ugly forced majority-minority 11th. Dismantling that would make for a much cleaner looking King county, at least.

Who?

Anyways, they should just refuse to give the commission the home addresses of incumbents. King Co's map is hideous but there's some stinkers in EWA and I'm still not sure what they were thinking with that horseshoe thing down in Clark

Except the legislature chooses who is on the commission so they pick people who will fight for their interests.

While we're listing complaints, the 9th, 2nd, and 1st are all horror shows.

Heh I live in the 1st now. Real odd combo of towns it stitched together. I'm not convinced anybody actually lives in the 2nd - couldn't tell you how on earth to get anywhere that's in it


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 12, 2017, 10:54:26 AM
Well, the clown car grows: Jessyn Farrell is officially in: http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/washington-state-rep-jessyn-farrell-joins-crowded-race-for-seattle-mayor/

I like her a lot, but as I said earlier, she's remarkably unknown. Perhaps STB and Seattle Subway have enough influence to get her name out, which could in turn get The Urbanist on her side, idk.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 12, 2017, 11:54:50 AM
Well, the clown car grows: Jessyn Farrell is officially in: http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/washington-state-rep-jessyn-farrell-joins-crowded-race-for-seattle-mayor/

I like her a lot, but as I said earlier, she's remarkably unknown. Perhaps STB and Seattle Subway have enough influence to get her name out, which could in turn get The Urbanist on her side, idk.

She's more on the transportation side than the development side of urbanism from what I can tell. These obviously go hand in hand, but that's her difference from Moon. Maybe Flawless Beautiful Brady <333 returns the favor she paid him last year?

Just realized much of her district is outside of Seattle. Stretches into Lake Forest Park and Kenmore (!). We were talking about bad districts yesterday - there is zero reason for this district to be drawn this way either


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on May 12, 2017, 01:29:11 PM
Some write-ups on Durkin have been popping up, and with them some red flags.

Namely:
-Defended Uber and McDonalds in legal battles
-Has a history of being anti-pot.
-Somewhat shady history of prosecuting protesters.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 12, 2017, 02:23:58 PM
Some write-ups on Durkin have been popping up, and with them some red flags.

Namely:
-Defended Uber and McDonalds in legal battles
-Has a history of being anti-pot.
-Somewhat shady history of prosecuting protesters.

I suspect federal prosecutors have to take a different stance on pot than mayors, TBF, and most of her term as USA was pre-legalization. That'll obviously be a question she'll have to answer, though


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 15, 2017, 02:01:30 PM
Glad to have read Erica Barnett's interview with Nikkita Oliver: https://thecisforcrank.com/2017/05/15/the-c-is-for-crank-interviews-nikkita-oliver/

It definitely focused on land use and development, which helped to distill some of Oliver's views. More nuanced than I originally thought, but definitely not on the side I lean (desire for some ambiguous form of rent control, more community process (really??), emphasizing blaming the housing crisis on developers (and speculative market forces) over restrictive zoning). Good to see she's willing to tackle gentle density (mother-in-law units, accessory dwelling units, duplexes, etc.) in affluent single-family neighborhoods, though she didn't really lay down any specifics.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 15, 2017, 03:34:00 PM
If you're skeptical of the Seattle establishment (such as it is) but support more density, Cary Moon would be the obvious choice, with Jessyn Farrell probably a close second

Honestly, a Farrell vs. Moon runoff is a best case scenario


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on May 18, 2017, 11:31:09 PM
Unsurprising news is still news:

Kshama Sawant has endorsed (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/seattle-councilmember-kshama-sawants-party-endorses-nikkita-oliver-for-mayor/) Oliver for Mayor, Grant for City Council.


Farrell meanwhile has gotten the endorsements of State Rep. Cindy Ryu, State Rep. Gerry Pollet, and Public Lands Commissioner Hillary Franz. Three of my favorite Democrats in the state!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 19, 2017, 11:57:39 AM
Unsurprising news is still news:

Kshama Sawant has endorsed (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/seattle-councilmember-kshama-sawants-party-endorses-nikkita-oliver-for-mayor/) Oliver for Mayor, Grant for City Council.


Farrell meanwhile has gotten the endorsements of State Rep. Cindy Ryu, State Rep. Gerry Pollet, and Public Lands Commissioner Hillary Franz. Three of my favorite Democrats in the state!

I'm coming around to Farrell being my preferred choice, with Moon a close second and Durkan bringing up third. All three would be solid urbanists and I think it'd be nice to have a lady in the Mayor's office finally.

In other news, saw a Jinyoung Englund ad on CNBC at work today and I've seen Dhingra signs all over Redmond. The 45th is heating up. (Still think Dhingra wins, in no small part thanks to the super-South Asian demographics around here)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Kingpoleon on May 19, 2017, 02:49:29 PM
Anyone know when the filing deadline is? Curious how long Durkan and Walkinshaw have to decide whether to pull the trigger

Harrell (ugh) might run, too
What is so bad about Harrell?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 19, 2017, 04:04:50 PM
Anyone know when the filing deadline is? Curious how long Durkan and Walkinshaw have to decide whether to pull the trigger

Harrell (ugh) might run, too
What is so bad about Harrell?

Bit of an empty suit/hack


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 23, 2017, 10:20:22 PM
Issaquah Council member Tola Marts (D) will challenge Dave Reichert in WA-08. I have no idea who he is or his quality as a candidate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 23, 2017, 10:55:12 PM
Better than Darcy Burner :P

Mark Mullet would have a free run at Reichert but I doubt he takes it. Issy and the Plat are the places where Dems need to run up the score to have a chance in this district


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 25, 2017, 12:53:16 PM
By this point I'm confident that census growth patterns will favors Dems in the next round of redistricting. Seattle proper is growing at nearly twice the pace of the state rate, entitling it to early half of an additional LD by this point. Tacoma should pass Spokane by decade's end. Interesting that The Valley is growing at faster clip than Spokane despite being a hellhole.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 25, 2017, 02:41:30 PM
By this point I'm confident that census growth patterns will favors Dems in the next round of redistricting. Seattle proper is growing at nearly twice the pace of the state rate, entitling it to early half of an additional LD by this point. Tacoma should pass Spokane by decade's end. Interesting that The Valley is growing at faster clip than Spokane despite being a hellhole.

I don't know if the 9th will be kept as it is, but it's looking more than likely that Seattle will almost perfectly fit one district. I'd like the original 7th to come back. As for LDs, it'll be interesting to see just how overpopulated the 43rd and 36th are.

Spokane's growth seems to have picked up though. So perhaps the dynamic will change by 2020.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 25, 2017, 03:36:25 PM
I believe the 9th is as goofy as it is in order to be an MM district. Laudable, but difficult to draw well in a state as white as Washington. An all-Seattle 7th would be ideal, I agree


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 25, 2017, 04:30:26 PM
I believe the 9th is as goofy as it is in order to be an MM district. Laudable, but difficult to draw well in a state as white as Washington. An all-Seattle 7th would be ideal, I agree

Oh, I know. I think it's ridiculous. Especially since Adam Smith is only in his early 50s (!!) and will likely be there for another 15+ years.

I believe it was Slade Gorton that masterminded the 9th, thus securing the 8th for Reichert. Then they masqueraded the district as a "minority-majority" to both the other Ds/independents on the redistricting council and the public at large.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on May 25, 2017, 05:04:32 PM
I believe the 9th is as goofy as it is in order to be an MM district. Laudable, but difficult to draw well in a state as white as Washington. An all-Seattle 7th would be ideal, I agree

Oh, I know. I think it's ridiculous. Especially since Adam Smith is only in his early 50s (!!) and will likely be there for another 15+ years.

I believe it was Slade Gordon that masterminded the 9th, thus securing the 8th for Reichert. Then they masqueraded the district as a "minority-majority" to both the other Ds/independents on the redistricting council and the public at large.

I'm hoping a Dem can defeat Reichert before 2022 so the commission will be more likely to make the 8th more D-leaning.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 25, 2017, 05:40:31 PM
I believe the 9th is as goofy as it is in order to be an MM district. Laudable, but difficult to draw well in a state as white as Washington. An all-Seattle 7th would be ideal, I agree

Oh, I know. I think it's ridiculous. Especially since Adam Smith is only in his early 50s (!!) and will likely be there for another 15+ years.

I believe it was Slade Gorton that masterminded the 9th, thus securing the 8th for Reichert. Then they masqueraded the district as a "minority-majority" to both the other Ds/independents on the redistricting council and the public at large.

Rick Larsen isn't that old and has been around forever too. Those two will be the Scoop-Mag combo of the House (a man can dare to dream)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on May 25, 2017, 07:25:04 PM
I believe the 9th is as goofy as it is in order to be an MM district. Laudable, but difficult to draw well in a state as white as Washington. An all-Seattle 7th would be ideal, I agree

Oh, I know. I think it's ridiculous. Especially since Adam Smith is only in his early 50s (!!) and will likely be there for another 15+ years.

I believe it was Slade Gorton that masterminded the 9th, thus securing the 8th for Reichert. Then they masqueraded the district as a "minority-majority" to both the other Ds/independents on the redistricting council and the public at large.

Rick Larsen isn't that old and has been around forever too. Those two will be the Scoop-Mag combo of the House (a man can dare to dream)

I could see Smith climbing the leadership ranks if one of Hoyer, Pelosi, and/or Clyburn retire. Larsen meanwhile is the definition of a backbencher.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 25, 2017, 11:19:31 PM
I believe the 9th is as goofy as it is in order to be an MM district. Laudable, but difficult to draw well in a state as white as Washington. An all-Seattle 7th would be ideal, I agree

Oh, I know. I think it's ridiculous. Especially since Adam Smith is only in his early 50s (!!) and will likely be there for another 15+ years.

I believe it was Slade Gorton that masterminded the 9th, thus securing the 8th for Reichert. Then they masqueraded the district as a "minority-majority" to both the other Ds/independents on the redistricting council and the public at large.

Rick Larsen isn't that old and has been around forever too. Those two will be the Scoop-Mag combo of the House (a man can dare to dream)

I could see Smith climbing the leadership ranks if one of Hoyer, Pelosi, and/or Clyburn retire. Larsen meanwhile is the definition of a backbencher.

Either Adam (Smith or Schiff) would make a great Speaker.

Larsen might be the most anonymous member of Congress besides Lucille Roybal-Allard now that Sam Farr is gone


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 31, 2017, 11:44:08 AM
Jessyn Farrell, D-46, will announce her resignation, adding yet another WA leg special.

She's doing so to focus on her bid for Seattle mayor. McGinn made a nice pro-transit, "let's work with Sound Transit to get LR built faster" statement that certainly tugged at my heart strings. But I still question his efficacy if elected. Doubtful he's learned how to play politics and work with the city council.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 31, 2017, 12:42:43 PM
I'm really liking a number of Farrell's responses: https://thecisforcrank.com/2017/05/31/the-c-is-for-crank-interviews-jessyn-farrell/ (https://thecisforcrank.com/2017/05/31/the-c-is-for-crank-interviews-jessyn-farrell/)

That's perhaps the most in-depth interview I've seen with any of the mayoral candidates. Durkan so far has not bothered to really stake out her positions. I'd like a similar interview.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 31, 2017, 01:41:48 PM
So far Durkan seems to be trying to Coast on her connections - not sure that will cut it. Farrell resigning is a money-where-the-mouth-is move - good for her. She's already my preferred candidate, and that interview only reinforced that. A McGinn-Farrell runoff is a wet dream for urbanists IMO


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on June 05, 2017, 12:43:24 PM
Since things won't heat up in WA til the fall...

1. Who is going to replace Farrell in the House?

2. With some of the annexations that have gone into effect in King County since 2010, how do some of you see the LDs shaking out differently to keep city boundaries whole? I believe my area, Finn Hill, being unincorporated is what attached it to the 1st LD for reasons that elude me


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on June 06, 2017, 12:46:31 PM
I have no idea who will replace her, some anonymous misc. Seattle D. :p

The 1st LD was once more marginal than it is now, particularly downballot. Perhaps Finn Hill/Kingsgate were more reliably D, so they got tacked on. Kirkland will have around 60% of the population needed for an LD, so perhaps will see the city kept together come 2022.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on June 06, 2017, 04:29:40 PM
It'll be interesting to see how they stitch together East King, that's for sure.

Some news: apparently (per DKE) Stuckart is out against McMorris Rodgers. Apparently health concerns in family, though the potential entrance of Lisa Brown and a clear run at Spokane Mayor in '19 probably made the choice much easier. He's young and has time to wait


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on June 06, 2017, 04:30:58 PM
I don't know enough about current municipal boundaries to comment.


In (sad) news: Ben Stuckart is dropping out of WA-05 due to family health concerns.

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Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on June 06, 2017, 04:32:13 PM
It'll be interesting to see how they stitch together East King, that's for sure.

Some news: apparently (per DKE) Stuckart is out against McMorris Rodgers. Apparently health concerns in family, though the potential entrance of Lisa Brown and a clear run at Spokane Mayor in '19 probably made the choice much easier. He's young and has time to wait

If Stuckart dropping out is followed by Brown getting in immediately after, I'd be very very excited.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on June 06, 2017, 04:42:50 PM
It'll be interesting to see how they stitch together East King, that's for sure.

Some news: apparently (per DKE) Stuckart is out against McMorris Rodgers. Apparently health concerns in family, though the potential entrance of Lisa Brown and a clear run at Spokane Mayor in '19 probably made the choice much easier. He's young and has time to wait

If Stuckart dropping out is followed by Brown getting in immediately after, I'd be very very excited.

She'd be a superior candidate, IMO, though being a former Senate leader may hurt her (bringing a med school to WSU, an adored institution over there, would be a plus). Besides, I've always been skeptical of Stuckart - who is a bit of an abrasive personality and definitely left of the average district voter - winning here. He's a shoo-in for Mayor in 2019, though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on June 06, 2017, 05:39:58 PM
On the Seattle Mayor topic: It seems like Murray's establishment support has fractured somewhat between Durkan and Farrell. The more liberal side of the establishment (including recently Cyrus Habib, Rob Johnson, & Nicole Macri) is backing Farrell while Durkan is getting support from the Chamber of Commerce types.

Bodes well for the hopeful scenario of a McGinn/Farrell run-off.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on June 06, 2017, 08:57:49 PM
On the Seattle Mayor topic: It seems like Murray's establishment support has fractured somewhat between Durkan and Farrell. The more liberal side of the establishment (including recently Cyrus Habib, Rob Johnson, & Nicole Macri) is backing Farrell while Durkan is getting support from the Chamber of Commerce types.

Bodes well for the hopeful scenario of a McGinn/Farrell run-off.

I'd much rather have Farrell's supporters than Durkan's in a Seattle race

As for your suggested runoff... be still my beating heart


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on June 14, 2017, 01:06:10 PM
Our Cranky favorite's interview with Durkan: https://thecisforcrank.com/2017/06/12/the-c-is-for-crank-interviews-jenny-durkan/ (https://thecisforcrank.com/2017/06/12/the-c-is-for-crank-interviews-jenny-durkan/)

Notice in the comments that former mayor Greg Nickels noted a small factual correction. Got a kick out of that.

Durkan seems decent. I'm thinking we'll see a Durkan-Farrell runoff. Despite my initial thinking, Farrell has managed to increase her profile and pick up support from many urbanists/transit supporters, which represent a significant chunk of the primary vote.

We wondered who would replace Farrell in the state house: yesterday longtime local Democratic leader Javier Valdez was appointed by the King County Council. The other two choices were Nigel Herbig, a Kenmore City Councilmember and legislative aide to Farrell, and Melissa Taylor, a former software engineer who cofounded a group that trains Democratic women to run for office.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on June 14, 2017, 01:29:21 PM
Imagine if they'd picked Roger Valdez (for a second I misread your post)

Durkan-Farrell would be an interesting race. Farrell would probably be my choice in that case - bolder on urban/transportation issues


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on June 15, 2017, 01:18:13 PM
Buzz on RRH: Ed Murray considering write in campaign now that the lawsuit has been dropped

The only way this race ends has to be with the Big One striking on 11/6. There's just no other way.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on June 16, 2017, 04:50:24 PM
After weeks of touchy-feely soft glow Englund ads on CNBC I saw my first attack ad against her from Dhingra. Definitely talked up her connex with D.C. Republicans and tied her to Trump


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on June 19, 2017, 04:47:57 PM
Out of boredom, I drew up alternative to Washington's current State Senate districts. Figure I'd ask for feedback from other Washington posters:



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Districts with Obama 2008 and Senate 2010 numbers:


SD-01 (Bothell) - 62/36 Obama, 54/45 Murray Safe D
SD-02 (Fort Lewis-Eatonville) - 48/49 McCain, 44/56 Rossi Safe R
SD-03: (Spokane) - 54/43 Obama, 50/49 Murray Lean D
SD-04 (Spokane Valley) - 42/54 McCain, 38/61 Rossi Safe R
SD-05 (Issaquah-Sammamish) - 59/39 Obama, 50/50 Murray (4 vote difference) Likely D
SD-06 (West Spokane/Cheney) - 54/43 Obama, 50/50 Murray (9 vote difference) Toss-Up/Lean D
SD-07 (Okanogan Highlands) - 40/57 McCain, 35/64 Rossi Safe R
SD-08 (Richland-Kennewick) - 36/61 McCain, 36/63 Rossi Safe R
SD-09 (Walla Walla-Pullman) - 43/54 McCain, 39/61 Rossi Safe R
SD-10 (Anacortes-Whidbey Island)  55/42 Obama, 52/47 Murray Lean/Likely D
SD-11 (Burien-Tukwila) - 69/29 Obama, 65/34 Murray Safe D
SD-12 (Wenatchee-Ellensburg) - 43/55 McCain, 36/63 Rossi Safe R
SD-13 (Moses Lake-Ephrata) - 36/61 McCain, 30/69 Rossi Safe R
SD-14 (Yakima-Goldendale) - 43/54 McCain, 36/63 Rossi Safe R
SD-15 (Yakima-Sunnyside) - 47/51 McCain, 40/59 Rossi Likely/Safe R
SD-16 (Pasco-Ritzville) - 35/62 McCain, 33/66 Rossi Safe R
SD-17 (Vancouver-Camas) - 53/45 Obama, 46/53 Rossi Toss-Up
SD-18 (Battle Ground-Brush Prairie) - 45/52 McCain, 39/60 Rossi Safe R
SD-19 (Longview-South Bend) - 53/43 Obama, 47/52 Rossi Toss-Up
SD-20 (Centralia-Tenino) - 45/52 McCain, 40/59 Rossi Safe R
SD-21 (Everett) - 62/35 Obama, 56/43 Murray Safe D
SD-22 (Olympia) - 65/33 Obama, 61/38 Murray Safe D
SD-23 (Bainbridge Island-Bremerton) - 57/40 Obama, 53/46 Murray Safe D
SD-24 (Port Angeles-Port Townsend) - 56/41 Obama, 52/47 Murray Likely D
SD-25 (Puyallup-Orting) - 50/47 Obama, 44/55 Rossi Likely R
SD-26 (Port Orchard-Gig Harbor) - 49/48 Obama, 45/55 Rossi Toss-Up/Lean R
SD-27 (Tacoma) - 66/31 Obama, 61/38 Murray Safe D
SD-28 (University Place-Lakewood) - 56/41 Obama, 52/47 Murray Toss-Up/Lean D
SD-29 (Tacoma-Parkland) - 61/36 Obama, 56/43 Murray Safe D
SD-30 (Federal Way) - 60/38 Obama, 54/45 Murray Likely D
SD-31 (Enumclaw-North Bend) - 50/47 Obama, 43/56 Rossi Likely R
SD-32 (Edmonds-Lynwood) - 65/33 Obama, 59/40 Murray Safe D
SD-33 (Kent) - 60/38 Obama, 53/46 Murray Safe D
SD-34 (West Seattle-Vashon) - 80/17 Obama, 77/22 Murray Safe D
SD-35 (Aberdeen-Shelton) - 55/42 Obama, 50/49 Murray Toss-Up/Lean R
SD-36 (West Seattle) - 84/14 Obama, 81/18 Murray Safe D
SD-37 (Southwest Seattle) - 87/10 Obama, 86/13 Murray Safe D
SD-38 (Marysville-Camano Island) - 52/45 Obama, 46/53 Rossi Toss-Up/Lean R
SD-39 (Monroe-Granite Falls) - 53/44 Obama, 45/54 Rossi Likely R
SD-40 (Bellingham-Ferndale) - 66/31 Obama, 61/38 Murray Safe D
SD-41 (Renton-Newcastle) - 64/33 Obama, 58/41 Murray Safe D
SD-42 (Lynden-Mount Vernon) - 46/51 McCain, 40/59 Rossi Safe R
SD-43 (Seattle) - 87/11 Obama, 84/15 Murray Safe D
SD-44 (Lake Stevens-Mill Creek) - 57/40 Obama, 49/50 Rossi Toss-Up/Lean D
SD-45 (Kirkland-Redmond) - 65/33 Obama, 57/42 Murray Likely D
SD-46 (Shoreline-North Seattle) - 77/21 Obama, 74/25 Murray Safe D
SD-47 (Auburn-Bonney Lake) 53/45 Obama, 47/52 Rossi Toss-Up/Lean R
SD-48 (Bellevue-Mercer Island) - 63/34 Obama, 56/44 Murray Likely D
SD-49 (Vancouver)  - 58/39 Obama, 53/46 Rossi Safe D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on June 21, 2017, 12:44:06 PM
New poll out for the mayoral race. (http://www.king5.com/news/politics/mcginn-durkan-frontrunners-seattle-mayorsrace-poll/450828085?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=594a82eb04d30102f09303d4&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter)

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Farrell at 6%? WTF?

Got in late, and I imagine she's in a situation where she's everyone's #2 choice.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on June 21, 2017, 02:25:45 PM
There's also another (landline only!) poll being circulated done by an outfit called Wilson Strategies (Never heard of them). They appear to be backing or backed by Durkan judging by their website.

Link (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3870790-2017-Seattle-Mayor-Race-Poll-Report-Docx.html)

Durkan - 30.1%
Hasegawa - 8.8%
McGinn - 6.3%
Moon - 4%
Oliver - 3.4%
Farrell - 2.1%

Looks very junk. No way Hasegawa is in second place.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on June 23, 2017, 01:00:07 PM
I like your E WA districts, FWIW. Hard to swing 6 anymore D without making 3 more vulnerable, like what happened here. I like using I-90 as a divide, but Spokane gets super conservative super suddenly as you go north. Both would be swing districts IMO


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on June 23, 2017, 01:18:03 PM
I like your E WA districts, FWIW. Hard to swing 6 anymore D without making 3 more vulnerable, like what happened here. I like using I-90 as a divide, but Spokane gets super conservative super suddenly as you go north. Both would be swing districts IMO

Eastern WA very easy to make nice looking districts, but the current map is a mess of making sure every incumbent is comfortable. I could have even drawn a competitive 14th that went 53/47 Obama by swapping some areas around, but I decided against it in favor of a much less competitive 15th.


Also Pierce county is probably the hardest county to make nice-looking districts for, for congressional maps or otherwise. It's population is spread out in weird ways, it has the Gig Harbor/Artondale portion that should've been put in Kitsap county, and it's voting precincts are all weirdly shaped too, for some reason.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on June 23, 2017, 02:22:19 PM
I like your E WA districts, FWIW. Hard to swing 6 anymore D without making 3 more vulnerable, like what happened here. I like using I-90 as a divide, but Spokane gets super conservative super suddenly as you go north. Both would be swing districts IMO

Eastern WA very easy to make nice looking districts, but the current map is a mess of making sure every incumbent is comfortable. I could have even drawn a competitive 14th that went 53/47 Obama by swapping some areas around, but I decided against it in favor of a much less competitive 15th.


Also Pierce county is probably the hardest county to make nice-looking districts for, for congressional maps or otherwise. It's population is spread out in weird ways, it has the Gig Harbor/Artondale portion that should've been put in Kitsap county, and it's voting precincts are all weirdly shaped too, for some reason.

Pierce is a dumpster fire mapping wise. JBLM and Rainier are a big part of that IMO


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on June 23, 2017, 03:01:10 PM
I get what you're trying to do with your Yakima Hispanic district, but it makes for a terrible Clark-Columbia-Skamania-northern Yakima suburbs seat (though it looks nice visually). On the topic of aesthetics, I think it would be better to have Hanford given over to the lime green district, even it totally surrounds the Richland/Kennewick one.

Also, I don't buy those polls at all. There's no way Farrell would do so poorly - she has a built in base - the 104k (2010) residents in her NE Seattle district. Hasegawa doesn't really have this, as the 11th has roughly only 17k residents in Seattle, but he'll do well in the south end regardless, as his home is on Beacon Hill.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on June 23, 2017, 11:12:13 PM
I get what you're trying to do with your Yakima Hispanic district, but it makes for a terrible Clark-Columbia-Skamania-northern Yakima suburbs seat (though it looks nice visually). On the topic of aesthetics, I think it would be better to have Hanford given over to the lime green district, even it totally surrounds the Richland/Kennewick one.

Also, I don't buy those polls at all. There's no way Farrell would do so poorly - she has a built in base - the 104k (2010) residents in her NE Seattle district. Hasegawa doesn't really have this, as the 11th has roughly only 17k residents in Seattle, but he'll do well in the south end regardless, as his home is on Beacon Hill.

One of those polls is landline only, BTW, though I don't recall which one. Anyways, I imagine a city as transient and young as Seattle is difficult to poll


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on June 24, 2017, 01:44:27 AM
I get what you're trying to do with your Yakima Hispanic district, but it makes for a terrible Clark-Columbia-Skamania-northern Yakima suburbs seat (though it looks nice visually). On the topic of aesthetics, I think it would be better to have Hanford given over to the lime green district, even it totally surrounds the Richland/Kennewick one.

I don't know where else I would put Skamania/Klickitat if not with the Yakima area. FWIW this was the other way I drew it:

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14th (Brown) is majority-minority. 47% white, 42.8% hispanic, 6.1% Native American. 53-44 Obama, 46-53 Rossi.  15th (Orange) is only 36% hispanic, 38-60 McCain, 31-68 Rossi.

EDIT: Lol had to re-upload the image because the photobucket URL had the s-word in it and the forum filter broke it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on June 28, 2017, 10:12:38 AM
So now that we're 4 months out from the fall... predictions for Mayor and 45th SD?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on June 28, 2017, 11:23:03 AM
Publicunofficial, I personally like your second map more. Even if it ends up splitting the Hispanic COI, I think it's got better contiguity. Argh, why cant the populations on each side of the mountains balance out!!

I think Dhingra will win. This is a district where tying Englund to Trump should work (though obviously the focus should be on local issues).

Here's my rambling #hottakes look on the race:

As for mayor/council, I'm really unsure. I got to shake hands with Durkan yesterday and will get to attend a small campaign event for Capitol Hill businesses tomorrow. I think that will cement my Farrell support and inform me of her electoral chances (not expecting her to convert me). But she's got the money, part of the establishment, and the "moderate" vote on her side, so perhaps that's enough of a base to get her to the November ballot.

I think Hasegawa really limits Oliver's chance of clinching the second spot, with his southeast Seattle base. Granted, Oliver's support is fairly evenly spread over the city, but it most certainly is higher in minority communities, concentrated around Hasegawa's turf. Or maybe I'm placing to much value on Hasegawa's sway in south Seattle.

That leaves Farrell, McGinn, and Moon. My biggest concern is that these three are going to equally split the establishment progressive vote - Seattle's largest voting bloc - and be eliminated from the runoff, particularly if my Oliver-Hasegawa theory is wrong. I'd say Moon is the least likely of the three to make it onward; her campaign's momentum feels like it's stalled. And who is her base as an activist? At least McGinn and Farrell have geographic bases. McGinn of course has name recognition... for better or worse, while 100k Seattleites have seen Farrell on the ballot thrice (though once unopposed).

I'm not enthused about a Durkan - Oliver runoff, but it would likely be landslide Durkan.
If not taken by Oliver, the second spot goes to perhaps McGinn or Farrell. In which case Durkan is slightly favored against McGinn and tossup against Farrell.

Maybe I'm being overly pessimistic on urbanist chances. After all, the deciding issues should be housing, homelessness, and transit. At least, I hope those are the issues... You never know.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on June 28, 2017, 02:43:13 PM
I think Durkan would be *ok* for urbanism. Not amazing, but okay.

Her against one of Farrell or McGinn is best case scenario. I don't live in Seattle but Farrell would be my choice if I did.

I'm starting to grow worried about Englund's fundraising prowess, though considering how Indian Redmond has become and how toxic Trump is there I still think Dhingra has a narrow advantage. I'm curious how many of the South Asian techie types are citizens and can vote, however


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on June 28, 2017, 06:48:38 PM
I don't want to talk about the Seattle mayor race: THIS IS THE ONLY ISSUE WE NEED TO DISCUSS:

Quote

 Joe Fain‏ @senatorfain

My breakfast burrito is leaking and I don't have any napkins in the car. #dadhacks
 (https://twitter.com/senatorfain/status/878301196519329792)
()

Joe Fain is a disgusting weirdo.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on June 28, 2017, 10:40:52 PM
I like Joe Fain. He seems like a good guy. Which means he's probably not going down for a long time. *sigh*


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on June 29, 2017, 01:55:42 PM
Another Jinyeung Englund add on CNBC at work, this one where she talks about her background (leans HEAVY on charity work in Africa)

Thoughts:

1) she's one of the hottest politicians I've ever seen (though I've always found Asian women attractive so this is probably subjective)

2) she sounds like she's still 18 and about to bust out "like, OMG!" and then Snapchat her girlfriends a picture of a Starbucks cup

3) TLDR: I don't think she has Dhingra's gravitas either in appearance or demeanor


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on June 29, 2017, 03:31:55 PM
Still undecided in the Mayor race, but I'm officially rooting for Grant in the council race.

I know King Sweden and others have voiced their distaste for him, but what he's done with the democracy voucher program has really impressed me and the appeal of a politician who is in no way beholden to anyone but the people he represents is very appealing to me. I like a lot of his policies as well, he's been very involved with the Seattle DSA.

The biggest criticism of him I've seen is that he's an abrasive left-wing dickhead, but as an abrasive left-wing dickhead myself I see no problem with that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on June 29, 2017, 03:45:20 PM
Still undecided in the Mayor race, but I'm officially rooting for Grant in the council race.

I know King Sweden and others have voiced their distaste for him, but what he's done with the democracy voucher program has really impressed me and the appeal of a politician who is in no way beholden to anyone but the people he represents is very appealing to me. I like a lot of his policies as well, he's been very involved with the Seattle DSA.

The biggest criticism of him I've seen is that he's an abrasive left-wing dickhead, but as an abrasive left-wing dickhead myself I see no problem with that.

Nothing wrong with being left wing and abrasive on a City Council in a city like Seattle provided that you're also good on urban issues, which Grant has left me unconvinced that he is (Mike McGinn remains the platonic ideal of this intersect, IMO).

FWIW from what I've seen you'd fit that mold, too, so please run for city council, preferably against Sawant


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on June 29, 2017, 04:25:22 PM
Still undecided in the Mayor race, but I'm officially rooting for Grant in the council race.

I know King Sweden and others have voiced their distaste for him, but what he's done with the democracy voucher program has really impressed me and the appeal of a politician who is in no way beholden to anyone but the people he represents is very appealing to me. I like a lot of his policies as well, he's been very involved with the Seattle DSA.

The biggest criticism of him I've seen is that he's an abrasive left-wing dickhead, but as an abrasive left-wing dickhead myself I see no problem with that.

Nothing wrong with being left wing and abrasive on a City Council in a city like Seattle provided that you're also good on urban issues, which Grant has left me unconvinced that he is (Mike McGinn remains the platonic ideal of this intersect, IMO).

FWIW from what I've seen you'd fit that mold, too, so please run for city council, preferably against Sawant

Your chances are better than mine, I don't even live in King.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on June 29, 2017, 04:38:01 PM
Still undecided in the Mayor race, but I'm officially rooting for Grant in the council race.

I know King Sweden and others have voiced their distaste for him, but what he's done with the democracy voucher program has really impressed me and the appeal of a politician who is in no way beholden to anyone but the people he represents is very appealing to me. I like a lot of his policies as well, he's been very involved with the Seattle DSA.

The biggest criticism of him I've seen is that he's an abrasive left-wing dickhead, but as an abrasive left-wing dickhead myself I see no problem with that.

Nothing wrong with being left wing and abrasive on a City Council in a city like Seattle provided that you're also good on urban issues, which Grant has left me unconvinced that he is (Mike McGinn remains the platonic ideal of this intersect, IMO).

FWIW from what I've seen you'd fit that mold, too, so please run for city council, preferably against Sawant

Your chances are better than mine, I don't even live in King.

Whoops :P

Maybe I'll run for Kirkland City Council someday, I think inoffensive Third Wayism would go over well here


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on July 05, 2017, 07:51:22 PM
The Seattle Times endorses (http://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/editorials/page/2/) *barf* Sara Nelson for City Council 8.

Key excerpt:

Quote
And like others, Nelson favors dense urban growth, particularly as a way to prevent sprawl into rural areas. But unlike other candidates, Nelson is willing to listen to neighborhoods concerned about the pace and consequences of growth. She is the only candidate to raise Seattle’s tree canopy, endangered by rapid development.

Finding the right balance — between growth and livability — in Seattle’s historic boom times requires an open mind and leaders who aren’t beholden to ideologically-driven advocacy groups. Nelson nicely fits the bill.

Because being beholden to the Chamber of Commerce and moneyed interests is soooooooo much better for the city than being beholden to an ideology.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 06, 2017, 08:50:36 AM
So IOW she's worse than Grant on urbanism if ST is pushing that angle. Lovely!

The Times is such a rag


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on July 06, 2017, 11:34:45 AM
So IOW she's worse than Grant on urbanism if ST is pushing that angle. Lovely!

The Times is such a rag

I said it when she got in, she's the Republican By Default in the race.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 06, 2017, 09:46:03 PM
So IOW she's worse than Grant on urbanism if ST is pushing that angle. Lovely!

The Times is such a rag

I said it when she got in, she's the Republican By Default in the race.

*sigh* a city that really needs urbanism keeps attracting NIMBYs of all stripes. Seattle really can't win


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on July 07, 2017, 12:51:46 PM
Mike O'Brien endorses Nikkita Oliver! (https://twitter.com/NikkitaOliver/status/883369985728405504)

Second city council endorsement for Oliver after Sawant. O'Brien had previously donated both Oliver and Cary Moon, but this endorsement probably means Moon's chances have very clearly faded.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 07, 2017, 01:17:39 PM
Mike O'Brien endorses Nikkita Oliver! (https://twitter.com/NikkitaOliver/status/883369985728405504)

Second city council endorsement for Oliver after Sawant. O'Brien had previously donated both Oliver and Cary Moon, but this endorsement probably means Moon's chances have very clearly faded.

He must really hate McSchwinn. I usually like O'Brien so that's too bad he's wasting his endorsement on her. Must mean Hasegawa is failing to get any traction, too


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on July 07, 2017, 02:12:39 PM
Mike O'Brien endorses Nikkita Oliver! (https://twitter.com/NikkitaOliver/status/883369985728405504)

Second city council endorsement for Oliver after Sawant. O'Brien had previously donated both Oliver and Cary Moon, but this endorsement probably means Moon's chances have very clearly faded.

He must really hate McSchwinn. I usually like O'Brien so that's too bad he's wasting his endorsement on her. Must mean Hasegawa is failing to get any traction, too

I'm starting to think McGinn might be somewhat of a paper tiger. A lot of people don't remember his term fondly, only got 29% in the primary as an incumbent, and might just be coasting on name recognition. I could see The Stranger choosing to endorse Oliver over McGinn, swinging enough votes to make a Oliver vs. Durkan run-off.

Oliver is actually leading McGinn in fundraising, too.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 07, 2017, 02:24:51 PM
Mike O'Brien endorses Nikkita Oliver! (https://twitter.com/NikkitaOliver/status/883369985728405504)

Second city council endorsement for Oliver after Sawant. O'Brien had previously donated both Oliver and Cary Moon, but this endorsement probably means Moon's chances have very clearly faded.

He must really hate McSchwinn. I usually like O'Brien so that's too bad he's wasting his endorsement on her. Must mean Hasegawa is failing to get any traction, too

I'm starting to think McGinn might be somewhat of a paper tiger. A lot of people don't remember his term fondly, only got 29% in the primary as an incumbent, and might just be coasting on name recognition. I could see The Stranger choosing to endorse Oliver over McGinn, swinging enough votes to make a Oliver vs. Durkan run-off.

Oliver is actually leading McGinn in fundraising, too.

That says a lot about how his campaign is going, in that case.

Durkan is meh to me, but Oliver would be a disaster as Mayor. Her in a runoff would seriously concern me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 07, 2017, 02:25:25 PM
How do we see a Durkan-Oliver runoff going?

Durkan would likely win, but it'd be too close for comfort


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on July 12, 2017, 04:00:56 PM
Seattle Weekly endorsed Oliver, while The Stranger endorsed Cary Moon, with a dissent piece arguing for Oliver (The blurb on Moon's endorsement indicates the board likes Oliver, but thinks Moon would be the stronger candidate to beat Durkan).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 12, 2017, 05:34:40 PM
Seattle Weekly endorsed Oliver, while The Stranger endorsed Cary Moon, with a dissent piece arguing for Oliver (The blurb on Moon's endorsement indicates the board likes Oliver, but thinks Moon would be the stronger candidate to beat Durkan).

Surprising board endorsement. I don't think they're wrong, though. Moon would be a solid Mayor IMO though I sense she's fading :/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 18, 2017, 04:13:10 PM
Any thoughts on last night's debate? My Twitter feed predictably crowned Oliver as the winner, but obviously that isn't necessarily indicative of the general reaction to the candidates' performances.

The Stranger, which is usually a good read on lefty Seattle, basically shrugged and said "nothing we didn't know about any of them."


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on July 18, 2017, 06:27:21 PM
So IOW she's worse than Grant on urbanism if ST is pushing that angle. Lovely!

The Times is such a rag

I said it when she got in, she's the Republican By Default in the race.

*sigh* a city that really needs urbanism keeps attracting NIMBYs of all stripes. Seattle really can't win

Argh, I'm so annoyed I finally sit down to respond to this and my facking internet craps out when I posted.

So, to make the most of my irritation without rewriting my lengthy post:

Sara Nelson: Not a NIMBY, not a Republican, is an environmental, small business-oriented former Conlin land use staffer. Far from publicunofficial's characterization.

Teresa Mosqueda: I'm voting for her, she's great. On many issues. Only real urbanist in the race

Jon Grant: Basically a NIMBY. Sawant is way better. She at least understand Seattle needs to upzone even if I think her belief in the need for pairing that with rent control and insane MHA contributions is a poor way of countering market failings.

Nikkita Oliver: Would be a good mayor; articulate and comes across as competent. Not a disaster for urbanists. Would send immensely important positive message to POC nationwide in one of the few cities actually capable of electing a BLM activist.

Farrell/Moon: Voting for Farrell the transit urbanist, but I of course like Moon, the equity urbanist. She's actually gained steam with all these endorsements, a turn around from June.

Prediction:

Durkan 22%
Oliver: 19%
Farrel: 18%
Moon: 17%
Hasegawa: 12%
McGinn: 7%
Others: 4%

Run off: 58-42 Durkan


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on July 20, 2017, 01:10:20 PM
Nelson is the candidate looking to vouch for monied interests. I stand by my critique.

Mosqueda is great, I would support her over Grant if I found socialism too scary.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Virginiá on July 20, 2017, 01:18:42 PM
Argh, I'm so annoyed I finally sit down to respond to this and my facking internet craps out when I posted.

ftr, if you post something and your internet connection or the forum server sputters out and leaves you with an error page (and an unsuccessful post), you can just hit Refresh and it should ask you if you want to re-send the previous POST request. I always recommend people first copy their post to the clipboard before hitting send, especially if it's a large post, but that is an additional fallback option.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 20, 2017, 01:54:14 PM
FWIW I think/hope Mosqueda wins in November, which would be my preferred outcome. She seems great.

Sadly I doubt Farrell makes the runoff :( she's such a great State Rep, Olympia really is losing a gem


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 21, 2017, 01:36:17 PM
I drove past Jinyeong Englund waving her campaign sign on 124th in Kirkland on my way to work today


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 22, 2017, 08:55:44 PM
Discussed the 45th special with my father today while he helped me install a new door in my house. As I expected, he'll be voting Englund (he's a neverTrump conservative). I had no doubt he would, but I thought I'd share his reasoning.

Basically, all of the Dhingra flyers are focused almost entirely on either Trump (not a terrible idea) or Planned Parenthood (a more dubious focus in a state like WA). He didn't think she focuses enough on local issues, opposed to Englund. He's also of the mind that Democrats will impose an income tax the second they have the Senate.

I'm curious what some other WA posters think of this. I know there was chatter about an income tax in 2010, when Ds enjoyed much larger majorities. I'm really skeptical that they'd immolate their majorities (there's already enough heat over ST) over an income tax with a one-seat margin. I also doubt some of the more conservative Dems in the House would go for it. What do you all think?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on July 25, 2017, 05:02:43 PM
Just wondering, but is Clinton's 84.22% the highest percentage a presidential D has gotten in Seattle? What was it in 2008/2012?

2016 probably is the largest D margin though 84.22-8.44 (with write-ins, or 86.04-8.62 without).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on July 25, 2017, 10:15:36 PM
Just wondering, but is Clinton's 84.22% the highest percentage a presidential D has gotten in Seattle? What was it in 2008/2012?

2016 probably is the largest D margin though 84.22-8.44 (with write-ins, or 86.04-8.62 without).

To answer my own question: 2008 indeed saw a higher D % if including write-ins, but without 2016 stands king:
 
        Republican           Democratic           Third Parties
2016   8.44% 32,362   84.22% 323,126   7.34% 28,162
2012   13.74% 48,164   83.01% 290,963   3.25% 11,385
2008   13.81% 45,761   84.32% 279,441   1.87% 6,207
2004   17.87% 57,034   80.50% 256,974   1.63% 5,195


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ajc0918 on July 26, 2017, 11:30:03 AM
Just wondering, but is Clinton's 84.22% the highest percentage a presidential D has gotten in Seattle? What was it in 2008/2012?

2016 probably is the largest D margin though 84.22-8.44 (with write-ins, or 86.04-8.62 without).

To answer my own question: 2008 indeed saw a higher D % if including write-ins, but without 2016 stands king:
 
        Republican           Democratic           Third Parties
2016   8.44% 32,362   84.22% 323,126   7.34% 28,162
2012   13.74% 48,164   83.01% 290,963   3.25% 11,385
2008   13.81% 45,761   84.32% 279,441   1.87% 6,207
2004   17.87% 57,034   80.50% 256,974   1.63% 5,195

Wow, is crazy how far Republicans have fallen. Not even just in 2016 but since 2004.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 26, 2017, 04:28:35 PM
Just wondering, but is Clinton's 84.22% the highest percentage a presidential D has gotten in Seattle? What was it in 2008/2012?

2016 probably is the largest D margin though 84.22-8.44 (with write-ins, or 86.04-8.62 without).

To answer my own question: 2008 indeed saw a higher D % if including write-ins, but without 2016 stands king:
 
        Republican           Democratic           Third Parties
2016   8.44% 32,362   84.22% 323,126   7.34% 28,162
2012   13.74% 48,164   83.01% 290,963   3.25% 11,385
2008   13.81% 45,761   84.32% 279,441   1.87% 6,207
2004   17.87% 57,034   80.50% 256,974   1.63% 5,195

Wow, is crazy how far Republicans have fallen. Not even just in 2016 but since 2004.

The raw number declines even as Seattle booms. Remarkable.


Not from or currently residing in Seattle, so take my #analysis with a grain of salt, but I personally don't see Durkan winning by >10% in a runoff versus Oliver. Obviously I'm not at the vantage point to accurately predict anything, but I feel like, with activist energy & the grassroots on her side, Oliver could certainly make a single digit race against someone as uninspiring as Durkan, despite her enormous advantage in campaign $$$.

I doubt Oliver even makes the runoff. If even the Stranger, whose endorsement is valuable to the activist left, didn't endorse her...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on July 26, 2017, 06:20:02 PM
Calculated some more.

Kirkland:
      Republican          Democratic        Third Parties
2016   23.99% 10,816   65.61% 29,576   10.40% 4,689
2012   34.42% 14,838   62.60% 26,993   2.98% 1,284
2008   32.51% 8,037   65.53% 16,199   1.96% 485
2004   40.32% 9,555   58.32% 13,821   1.36% 321

Bellevue:
     Republican              Democratic      Third Parties
2016   24.58% 15,175   66.11% 40,820   9.31% 5,747
2012   35.76% 22,083   61.59% 38,036   2.65% 1,634
2008   34.41% 19,531   63.82% 36,224   1.77% 1,004
2004   41.68% 24,089   57.01% 32,952   1.31% 756

Shoreline:
        Republican             Democratic      Third Parties
2016   17.99% 5,484   72.69% 22,152   9.32% 2,841
2012   24.24% 7,123   72.73% 21,376   3.03% 890
2008   25.06% 7,184   72.88% 20,895   2.06% 591
2004   31.23% 8,730   67.27% 18,806   1.50% 420


Not from or currently residing in Seattle, so take my #analysis with a grain of salt, but I personally don't see Durkan winning by >10% in a runoff versus Oliver. Obviously I'm not at the vantage point to accurately predict anything, but I feel like, with activist energy & the grassroots on her side, Oliver could certainly make a single digit race against someone as uninspiring as Durkan, despite her enormous advantage in campaign $$$.

I doubt Oliver even makes the runoff. If even the Stranger, whose endorsement is valuable to the activist left, didn't endorse her...

I don't know, I personally think she is going to make the runoff. Though who knows, maybe a more pleasant surprise is in store and Farrell or Moon get in.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 26, 2017, 11:04:54 PM
Calculated some more.

Kirkland:
      Republican          Democratic        Third Parties
2016   23.99% 10,816   65.61% 29,576   10.40% 4,689
2012   34.42% 14,838   62.60% 26,993   2.98% 1,284
2008   32.51% 8,037   65.53% 16,199   1.96% 485
2004   40.32% 9,555   58.32% 13,821   1.36% 321

Bellevue:
     Republican              Democratic      Third Parties
2016   24.58% 15,175   66.11% 40,820   9.31% 5,747
2012   35.76% 22,083   61.59% 38,036   2.65% 1,634
2008   34.41% 19,531   63.82% 36,224   1.77% 1,004
2004   41.68% 24,089   57.01% 32,952   1.31% 756

Shoreline:
        Republican             Democratic      Third Parties
2016   17.99% 5,484   72.69% 22,152   9.32% 2,841
2012   24.24% 7,123   72.73% 21,376   3.03% 890
2008   25.06% 7,184   72.88% 20,895   2.06% 591
2004   31.23% 8,730   67.27% 18,806   1.50% 420


Not from or currently residing in Seattle, so take my #analysis with a grain of salt, but I personally don't see Durkan winning by >10% in a runoff versus Oliver. Obviously I'm not at the vantage point to accurately predict anything, but I feel like, with activist energy & the grassroots on her side, Oliver could certainly make a single digit race against someone as uninspiring as Durkan, despite her enormous advantage in campaign $$$.

I doubt Oliver even makes the runoff. If even the Stranger, whose endorsement is valuable to the activist left, didn't endorse her...

I don't know, I personally think she is going to make the runoff. Though who knows, maybe a more pleasant surprise is in store and Farrell or Moon get in.


Remarkable how much the Eastside has shifted


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on July 27, 2017, 02:05:46 AM
Most of my friends in the Seattle (20-something not-especially-politically-active leftists) have only heard of Oliver out of all the candidates. She has a serious movement behind her, I expect her to make the run-off and should not be underestimated there.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on July 29, 2017, 04:23:10 PM
When your district is one of the wealthiest in the country:

()

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 30, 2017, 10:58:24 PM
When your district is one of the wealthiest in the country:

()

()

An income tax would instantaneously kill any Democrat's campaign in this district. Fearmongering over one is really Englund's only chance


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 30, 2017, 11:03:16 PM
Apparently the Oliver campaign is facing a one-of-a-kind predicament - too many volunteers. (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/as-seattle-mayors-race-enters-homestretch-volunteers-fan-out-for-their-candidates/)

*sigh* if Seattle votes for hipstery intersectional virtue signaling over an effective progressive like Moon or Farrell, it deserves the unaffordable housing and chaotic city government it's going to get


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: heatcharger on July 31, 2017, 12:04:39 PM
Apparently the Oliver campaign is facing a one-of-a-kind predicament - too many volunteers. (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/as-seattle-mayors-race-enters-homestretch-volunteers-fan-out-for-their-candidates/)

*sigh* if Seattle votes for hipstery intersectional virtue signaling over an effective progressive like Moon or Farrell, it deserves the unaffordable housing and chaotic city government it's going to get

Who do you think would be favored in a Durkan-Oliver runoff? I'm obviously rooting for the former in that matchup.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 31, 2017, 12:15:51 PM
Apparently the Oliver campaign is facing a one-of-a-kind predicament - too many volunteers. (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/as-seattle-mayors-race-enters-homestretch-volunteers-fan-out-for-their-candidates/)

*sigh* if Seattle votes for hipstery intersectional virtue signaling over an effective progressive like Moon or Farrell, it deserves the unaffordable housing and chaotic city government it's going to get

Who do you think would be favored in a Durkan-Oliver runoff? I'm obviously rooting for the former in that matchup.

Durkan, I think, but it'd be closer than it has any reason to be. Hopefully we get one of Moon or Farrell into the runoff, I think they could knock Durkan out in November (I really do think The Stranger's endorsement of Moon will boost her, but that may just be my wishful thinking. Any chance of an oliver Mayoralty would be a disaster for urbanism and affordability in Seattle)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 01, 2017, 02:01:50 PM
Just voted. Here's my ballot, mostly so I can remember my votes for Port Commissioners when the tallies come in tonight.

King County Prop 1: Approved
King County Executive: Dow Constantine
Port Commissioner Position #1: Bea Querido-Rico
Port Commissioner Position #3: Ahmed Abdi
Port Commissioner Position #4: Preeti Shridhar
Mayor of Seattle: Cary Moon*
Seattle City Council Position #8: Teresa Mosqueda
Seattle City Council Position #9: Lorena Gonzalez
Seattle School District #1 Director District #4: Eden Mack

*More or less a dart throw with the Stranger's Endorsement tipping the scale (I was convinced they'd endorse Oliver, but they gave Moon a pretty passionate endorsement, which tells me they saw something pretty darn promising to risk upsetting their probably 70% pro-Oliver readership). I have a feeling the runoff will be Oliver vs. Durkan, and I figure I'll reevaluate things then.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: heatcharger on August 01, 2017, 02:19:35 PM
Polls close at 11 ET / 8 PT right?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on August 01, 2017, 02:27:17 PM
Yes, though because of vbm system in a close races  we may not know who won for a few days.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 01, 2017, 02:36:07 PM
"Polls" close at 8PM, but what that really means is that all ballots must be postmarked by 8 PM or returned to one of 70+ ballot boxes around the county by 8 PM.

As of 12PM, turnout is fairly a disappointing 22.44%, or 104,028 votes. My guess is that it'll increase to 130,000 votes, or 28% turnout.

My ballot:

King County Prop 1: Approved
King County Executive: Dow Constantine's immaculate hair
Port Commissioner Position #1: Port cretin, Creighton
Port Commissioner Position #3: Port shill, Stephanie Bowman
Port Commissioner Position #4: Preeti Shridhar
Mayor of Seattle: FBUJ<3<3<3: Flawless Beautiful Urbanist Jessyn Farrell<3<3<3
Seattle City Council Position #8: Teresa Mosqueda
Seattle City Council Position #9: Lorena Gonzalez
I honestly don't remember who or if I voted for a Seattle School District director...
Which is embarrassing, as a product of Seattle Public Schools...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on August 01, 2017, 03:07:34 PM
I'd share my ballot but all I got to vote for was Fire Commissioner where I live.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 01, 2017, 03:40:59 PM
"Polls" close at 8PM, but what that really means is that all ballots must be postmarked by 8 PM or returned to one of 70+ ballot boxes around the county by 8 PM.

As of 12PM, turnout is fairly a disappointing 22.44%, or 104,028 votes. My guess is that it'll increase to 130,000 votes, or 28% turnout.

My ballot:

King County Prop 1: Approved
King County Executive: Dow Constantine's immaculate hair
Port Commissioner Position #1: Port cretin, Creighton
Port Commissioner Position #3: Port shill, Stephanie Bowman
Port Commissioner Position #4: Preeti Shridhar
Mayor of Seattle: FBUJ<3<3<3: Flawless Beautiful Urbanist Jessyn Farrell<3<3<3
Seattle City Council Position #8: Teresa Mosqueda
Seattle City Council Position #9: Lorena Gonzalez
I honestly don't remember who or if I voted for a Seattle School District director...
Which is embarrassing, as a product of Seattle Public Schools...

This would be my exact ballot if I lived in Seattle

For unclear reasons my ballot didn't show up, suffice to say to all of you waiting with bated breath on how KingSwedem voted in the scorching hot Kirkland City Council Position Whatever race will have to be disappointed.

So I helped my wife research in the voters guide the issues at play that are important to her, and she voted successfully.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 01, 2017, 06:10:48 PM
You can print your ballot out!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 01, 2017, 09:07:37 PM

I will remember this for November, when the candidates for Lake Washington School Board Pos. X will surely need my vote to push them over the line


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: heatcharger on August 01, 2017, 10:05:04 PM
Any good links for results other than DD and AP?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on August 01, 2017, 10:09:06 PM
Don't get me wrong, I have always thought that Cary Moon was a strong, but not perfect candidate but I was not expecting her to be 2nd place on primary night.  Stranger endorsement apparently does have some power.

Durkan far ahead at 31.6%.  

https://info.kingcounty.gov/kcelections/Results/web-results.aspx?eid=8

In the primary race to control the state senate D is ahead 50.51% - 42.57% (R) - 6.86% (Candidate with no party preference).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 01, 2017, 10:19:07 PM
The real question... can Moon keep her lead over Oliver with the 35-40,000 ballots still left to count.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 01, 2017, 10:19:34 PM
Left wing candidates tend to perform very well in the post-election day tally. I wouldn't be surprised if Oliver still pulls it out in the end. But I'm very happy to see my last-minute decision might actually have not been a thrown away vote!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 01, 2017, 10:40:36 PM
May be my wishful thinking, but I think that Moon could also do well with late returns. Almost regretting my Farrell vote, but she's keeping it reasonably close.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 01, 2017, 10:44:43 PM
May be my wishful thinking, but I think that Moon could also do well with late returns. Almost regretting my Farrell vote, but she's keeping it reasonably close.

Let's hope :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 01, 2017, 11:12:28 PM
May be my wishful thinking, but I think that Moon could also do well with late returns. Almost regretting my Farrell vote, but she's keeping it reasonably close.

Let's hope :P

Are you guys not Oliver fans?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 01, 2017, 11:17:11 PM
May be my wishful thinking, but I think that Moon could also do well with late returns. Almost regretting my Farrell vote, but she's keeping it reasonably close.

Let's hope :P

Are you guys not Oliver fans?

I think she's patently unqualified for the office of Mayor (would make an ok Councilwoman I suppose), is hostile to policies that would promote good urbanism to the point of being economically illiterate, and that her campaign is 90% lefty virtue signaling. With more impressive progressives like Moon and Farrel who know what they're talking about a vote for her would be irresponsible.

We're seeing in DC what happens when you elect someone inexperienced in government into a complex job to "send a message"


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Babeuf on August 01, 2017, 11:29:35 PM
When will the next wave of votes come in?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Dr. Arch on August 01, 2017, 11:38:57 PM
When will the next wave of votes come in?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on August 01, 2017, 11:47:35 PM
Counting is done for tonight. King county should have another update tomorrow at around 4:30 pm pst.

This is a good guide of when future updates will be released:  http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/Turnout.html
  


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 01, 2017, 11:48:15 PM

Take a look at this: http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20170801/Turnout.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 02, 2017, 12:09:24 AM
4:30 PM tomorrow. There's 10,000 ballots that are ready to be tabulated that have not been. Along with another 18,000 that need to verified, plus whatever comes in the mail tomorrow (another 10,000 max probably).

This is something I've noticed since going to all mail in King county. Election day reports tend to actually be more left leaning than the following day, it's the stragglers from day 2-4 after the election that end up again left leaning, though at that point, there are very few actual votes left. I think this stems from the propensity of older, less liberal voters mailing their ballots versus younger ones who drop them off. Those mailed take longer to get there. But who knows, primaries are definitely a different beast.

At least that's the pattern from 2016. So I'm thinking those 10k votes are more left leaning. The next 18k are split, and the following 10k will be similar if not less left leaning.

Eager to see what follows.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 02, 2017, 12:55:44 AM
So I just found this lovely excerpt from an interview between Seattle Weekly and Seattle Mayoral also-ran Alex Tsimerman:

Quote
-Why are you running?

-What is happen right now, Amazon control everybody. Bezos want be a dictator, and he’s our dictator right now. He pushed too many people out of Seattle and he control everybody and everybody who belong to Democrat under his supervision, you know what this mean? For this, he buy a Washington Post. So right now we have dictator—we have a government like Murray, for example, and another who go right now for election, these six front-runner. Who tolds that these people front-runner?
Seattle right now is the number-one fascist city in America is my pure, analytical opinion. And I don’t make too many mistake in my life. I’ll be honest with you—I’m very good with this. So. This exactly what I am once talking, first what is need is freedom of speech and right for equal election, because we don’t have equal election. Is a fundamental point of fascism. One-party system is always fascism.

Also, here is what Wikipedia has to say about also-also-ran Lewis A. Jones:

Quote
Lewis A. Jones — Republican, small business owner. Address cell phone cancer, pro-Russia, wind breaks to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, punish adultery to stop HIV


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on August 02, 2017, 03:10:09 AM
Thoughts on the results (Before the final ballots come in):

-Grant-Mosqueda is the ideal run-off situation for the City Council 8 race and I hope it stays. Very happy with whoever would win here, and it's a big victory for the Democracy Voucher program. Eat s**t Nelson.

-Surprised by Moon's finish (As well as Farrell's), her campaign looked dead until the Stranger endorsement. Moon has apparently stated that she will endorse Oliver if the late returns pull her ahead, and I imagine Oliver will do the same. Beating Durkan is the greater good. In any case, Seattle's next mayor will be a woman for the first time.

-Dhingra currently leads Englund 50-42, with left-wing Independent Parker Harris at 6.9%. A very comfortable lead going into the general election.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on August 02, 2017, 03:23:16 AM
Also: An Moon and Farrell's strong finishes seem to have come at the expense of Mike McGinn, who had a pathetic showing tonight.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 02, 2017, 08:36:44 AM
So I just found this lovely excerpt from an interview between Seattle Weekly and Seattle Mayoral also-ran Alex Tsimerman:

Quote
-Why are you running?

-What is happen right now, Amazon control everybody. Bezos want be a dictator, and he’s our dictator right now. He pushed too many people out of Seattle and he control everybody and everybody who belong to Democrat under his supervision, you know what this mean? For this, he buy a Washington Post. So right now we have dictator—we have a government like Murray, for example, and another who go right now for election, these six front-runner. Who tolds that these people front-runner?
Seattle right now is the number-one fascist city in America is my pure, analytical opinion. And I don’t make too many mistake in my life. I’ll be honest with you—I’m very good with this. So. This exactly what I am once talking, first what is need is freedom of speech and right for equal election, because we don’t have equal election. Is a fundamental point of fascism. One-party system is always fascism.

Also, here is what Wikipedia has to say about also-also-ran Lewis A. Jones:

Quote
Lewis A. Jones — Republican, small business owner. Address cell phone cancer, pro-Russia, wind breaks to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, punish adultery to stop HIV


Municipal elections bring out the craziest loons


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 02, 2017, 01:24:35 PM
Thoughts on the results (Before the final ballots come in):

-Grant-Mosqueda is the ideal run-off situation for the City Council 8 race and I hope it stays. Very happy with whoever would win here, and it's a big victory for the Democracy Voucher program. Eat s**t Nelson.

-Surprised by Moon's finish (As well as Farrell's), her campaign looked dead until the Stranger endorsement. Moon has apparently stated that she will endorse Oliver if the late returns pull her ahead, and I imagine Oliver will do the same. Beating Durkan is the greater good. In any case, Seattle's next mayor will be a woman for the first time.

-Dhingra currently leads Englund 50-42, with left-wing Independent Parker Harris at 6.9%. A very comfortable lead going into the general election.

First since 1928. Bertha Knight Landes was Seattle's only female mayor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on August 02, 2017, 01:34:37 PM
Thoughts on the results (Before the final ballots come in):

-Grant-Mosqueda is the ideal run-off situation for the City Council 8 race and I hope it stays. Very happy with whoever would win here, and it's a big victory for the Democracy Voucher program. Eat s**t Nelson.

-Surprised by Moon's finish (As well as Farrell's), her campaign looked dead until the Stranger endorsement. Moon has apparently stated that she will endorse Oliver if the late returns pull her ahead, and I imagine Oliver will do the same. Beating Durkan is the greater good. In any case, Seattle's next mayor will be a woman for the first time.

-Dhingra currently leads Englund 50-42, with left-wing Independent Parker Harris at 6.9%. A very comfortable lead going into the general election.

First since 1928. Bertha Knight Landes was Seattle's only female mayor.


First female mayor anyone can remember :p


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 02, 2017, 02:35:11 PM
4:30 PM tomorrow. There's 10,000 ballots that are ready to be tabulated that have not been. Along with another 18,000 that need to verified, plus whatever comes in the mail tomorrow (another 10,000 max probably).


12 PM update: Ballots received increased from 116k to 127k, ballots ready for tabulation increased from 98k to 115k. Ballots tabulated: 89k

So that 4:30 PM update should be at least 26,000 of the remaining 37,000+ left to be counted.

What to look for: Assuming Moon holds her vote share (which I don't think is unreasonable if late votes are indeed left leaning, Oliver is not the only candidate who does well with them), Oliver would need to garner 21.17% of those 26k votes to clinch the second spot tonight.

13,583 15.56%
12,126 13.90% vote difference: 1,457

15.56% of 26k: 4046 ->17629
21.17% of 26k: 5504->17630


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 02, 2017, 04:12:55 PM
4:30 PM tomorrow. There's 10,000 ballots that are ready to be tabulated that have not been. Along with another 18,000 that need to verified, plus whatever comes in the mail tomorrow (another 10,000 max probably).


12 PM update: Ballots received increased from 116k to 127k, ballots ready for tabulation increased from 98k to 115k. Ballots tabulated: 89k

So that 4:30 PM update should be at least 26,000 of the remaining 37,000+ left to be counted.

What to look for: Assuming Moon holds her vote share (which I don't think is unreasonable if late votes are indeed left leaning, Oliver is not the only candidate who does well with them), Oliver would need to garner 21.17% of those 26k votes to clinch the second spot tonight.

13,583 15.56%
12,126 13.90% vote difference: 1,457

15.56% of 26k: 4046 ->17629
21.17% of 26k: 5504->17630

Do you think that's likely?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Beet on August 02, 2017, 04:19:50 PM
Oliver has very little to make up, which is why I assume she is trading at 3 1/2 times the level of Cary Moon on PredictIt. I will go on a limb and say she will win the GE as well, she will add Moon's support, and will have far more energy & momentum, as the underdog.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 02, 2017, 04:24:59 PM
Seems pretty high to me... but who knows!?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 02, 2017, 04:56:04 PM
Seems pretty high to me... but who knows!?

We'll see. If it was November and she was only that far behind Durkan, different story. But since Moon shares a profile on the left and has the Stranger's endorsement... this'll get interesting


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 02, 2017, 06:13:51 PM
Today's 3:57 vote update:

Total votes: 104,635 (+15,600) out of 127,000 (plus whatever comes today thru friday)
Cary Moon       15.74%   16,168  +.18%
Jessyn Farrell   11.98%   12,307  +.17%
Mike McGinn    7.07%      7,262   -.09%
Jenny Durkan   31.52%   32,376  -.08%
Nikkita Oliver   13.81%   14,190  -.09%
Bob Hasegawa  8.74%     8,973   +.12%

Good results for the urbanist candidates. I think it's fairly safe to say now that Moon has clinched the second spot. Oliver would have to match Durkan's current percentage with the remaining ballots to make up a 2,000 vote deficit.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 02, 2017, 06:37:53 PM
Go Cary!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on August 03, 2017, 03:28:29 AM
Hopefully Oliver lives in Bruce Harrell's district.

But yes, for now, go Moon!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 03, 2017, 06:19:46 PM
Today's 3:57 vote update:

Total votes: 104,635 (+15,600) out of 127,000 (plus whatever comes today thru friday)
Cary Moon       15.74%   16,168  +.18%
Jessyn Farrell   11.98%   12,307  +.17%
Mike McGinn    7.07%      7,262   -.09%
Jenny Durkan   31.52%   32,376  -.08%
Nikkita Oliver   13.81%   14,190  -.09%
Bob Hasegawa  8.74%     8,973   +.12%

Latest update:

Total votes: 142,556 (+38,000) out of 187,000 (as of the 2 PM update)
Cary Moon       16.72%   23,417  +.98%
Jessyn Farrell   12.44%   17,419  +.46%
Mike McGinn     6.65%     9,316   -.42%
Jenny Durkan   30.19%   42,281  -1.33%
Nikkita Oliver   14.88%   20,839  +1.07%
Bob Hasegawa  8.58%    12,011  -.16%

Moon - Oliver vote % difference same as election night results, but margin has increased to 2,600.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 03, 2017, 07:03:16 PM
I have a hard time seeing Oliver overtake Moon with the last 2 days' drops, but stranger things habe happened


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on August 03, 2017, 09:01:28 PM
Sara Nelson has conceded in the City Council race. It's Grant vs. Mosqueda.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 03, 2017, 09:46:17 PM
Sara Nelson has conceded in the City Council race. It's Grant vs. Mosqueda.

I'm surprised Sara Nelson did as well as she did, though horrible "neighborhood" candidates sometimes overperform


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on August 03, 2017, 09:56:03 PM
Sara Nelson has conceded in the City Council race. It's Grant vs. Mosqueda.

I'm surprised Sara Nelson did as well as she did, though horrible "neighborhood" candidates sometimes overperform

The Times endorsement counts for something. But Nelson never got the full establishment endorsement that Durkan got; Pramila Jayapal, most of the council, and most local Democratic groups endorsed Mosqueda.

Jon Grant heavily considered dropping out when Mosqueda entered the race; even he doesn't see a lot of differences between their campaigns (I've found them to be disagreeing on maybe 3-4 issues).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ajc0918 on August 04, 2017, 07:49:09 AM
Regarding the state senate special election, do you all think the GOP money will stop flowing to Englund since Dhingra got 50%+? Despite the money advantage Dhingra still managed to get a decent margin, although it was less than HRC's in the district(which makes sense since Englund is a better fit).

What do you think the general will look like?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on August 04, 2017, 09:02:24 AM
What do you think the general will look like?

About 55-45, IMHO


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 04, 2017, 10:50:54 AM
Sara Nelson has conceded in the City Council race. It's Grant vs. Mosqueda.

I'm surprised Sara Nelson did as well as she did, though horrible "neighborhood" candidates sometimes overperform

The Times endorsement counts for something. But Nelson never got the full establishment endorsement that Durkan got; Pramila Jayapal, most of the council, and most local Democratic groups endorsed Mosqueda.

Jon Grant heavily considered dropping out when Mosqueda entered the race; even he doesn't see a lot of differences between their campaigns (I've found them to be disagreeing on maybe 3-4 issues).

They disagree on housing, which is the important one to me. But yes, Mosqueda is not super different from Grant on a host of other issues. She'll make a great Councilwoman - I just hope her and Gonzalez come
Around on the SoDo Stadium


I agree with this prediction. I think most of Harris' support goes to Dhingra.

And Englund is a much better fit here than Trump, an area with a lot of Romney-Clinton voters, especially downballot. (Though I believe Obama carried the 45th?)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 04, 2017, 11:26:58 AM
Oh, Obama carried the 45th handily. 57.9-39.44

Just want to get on the record: Sara Nelson is not a "neighborhood" candidate. Pat Murakami (also endorsed by the Seattle Times) is the quintessential such candidate. I get why angrygreatness doesn't like her, but she isn't a NIMBY. In fact her overall political ideology probably suits you, KS, more than Mosqueda's. Nelson started the City Builders FB group, one of the first such groups dedicated to urbanism and growing Seattle up. Just because the Seattle Times chose her and decided to focus on some quote about neighborhoods needing to be heard, doesn't make her one. In fact every candidate has said something along the lines of "we need to still talk to the neighborhoods". It's just not politically feasible to not do so.

The Urbanist's Q&A: https://www.theurbanist.org/2017/06/28/2017-endorsement-questionnaire-sara-nelson/ (https://www.theurbanist.org/2017/06/28/2017-endorsement-questionnaire-sara-nelson/)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 04, 2017, 09:48:37 PM
Oh, Obama carried the 45th handily. 57.9-39.44

Just want to get on the record: Sara Nelson is not a "neighborhood" candidate. Pat Murakami (also endorsed by the Seattle Times) is the quintessential such candidate. I get why angrygreatness doesn't like her, but she isn't a NIMBY. In fact her overall political ideology probably suits you, KS, more than Mosqueda's. Nelson started the City Builders FB group, one of the first such groups dedicated to urbanism and growing Seattle up. Just because the Seattle Times chose her and decided to focus on some quote about neighborhoods needing to be heard, doesn't make her one. In fact every candidate has said something along the lines of "we need to still talk to the neighborhoods". It's just not politically feasible to not do so.

The Urbanist's Q&A: https://www.theurbanist.org/2017/06/28/2017-endorsement-questionnaire-sara-nelson/ (https://www.theurbanist.org/2017/06/28/2017-endorsement-questionnaire-sara-nelson/)

My support for Mosqueda flows more from not wanting Grant anywhere near office than anything she's done in particular. Maybe I should do more research, though :P

(I have to be realistic with who can win in Seattle these days. Warmed-over neoliberal hacks like me are not ascendant politically there haha)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on August 05, 2017, 01:53:57 AM
^ So, "Commies" are the one, who win the elections in Seattle now????)))


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 06, 2017, 12:36:58 PM
^ So, "Commies" are the one, who win the elections in Seattle now????)))

Not Commies, but Sawant and her merry band are VERY far left


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 10, 2017, 12:45:44 PM
The Stranger just posted some demographic numbers from the primary:

TOTAL VOTES BY GENDER:

Women: 98,801
Men: 87,985
(Average age of Seattle women who voted in the mayoral primary: 51.36. Average age of Seattle men: 50.65.)

And a map of the vote by gender by precinct: https://fusiontables.googleusercontent.com/embedviz?q=select+col6%3E%3E1+from+13qH1DDJPOFki1-fgdHkid0M722klUqLIoZh-IJub&viz=MAP&h=false&lat=47.63310203548851&lng=-122.32174185937498&t=1&z=12&l=col6%3E%3E1&y=6&tmplt=7&hml=KML


TOTAL VOTES BY AGE:

Millennials: 45,613
Generation X: 54,650
Boomers: 59,311
Greatest Generation: 27,400
(The average age of Seattle's Millennial voters: 29. For Generation X: 44. For the Boomers: 62. And for the Greatest Generation: 79.)

And a map of age by precinct: https://fusiontables.googleusercontent.com/embedviz?q=select+col6%3E%3E1+from+1hRhMYcgn6fKz36_AiRpiJ2-2I9BkhzXvF9R93ufT&viz=MAP&h=false&lat=47.62500391869521&lng=-122.29187277978514&t=1&z=12&l=col6%3E%3E1&y=2&tmplt=2&hml=KML


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Virginiá on August 10, 2017, 02:39:33 PM
Greatest Generation: 27,400
(The average age of Seattle's Millennial voters: 29. For Generation X: 44. For the Boomers: 62. And for the Greatest Generation: 79.)

Was it meant to be Silent generation? Greatest generation is the one before silent - the FDR/New Deal generation. They aren't really around in big numbers anymore.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Kingpoleon on August 10, 2017, 03:16:24 PM
Is she more moderate than Durkan?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 10, 2017, 03:51:51 PM

No, but she's not an economically illiterate, virtue-signaling NiMBY-empowering spoken word artist with zero political experience in bed with Sawant (unlike Nikita Oliver)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on August 10, 2017, 05:32:08 PM

Durkan is the moderate candidate in the race. I would hope you actually look at their positions instead of just immediately supporting whoever you decide is more moderate, though.


No, but she's not an economically illiterate, virtue-signaling NiMBY-empowering spoken word artist with zero political experience in bed with Sawant (unlike Nikita Oliver)

She's out of the race, you don't have to keep poo-poo'ing her, KS.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 10, 2017, 09:06:31 PM

Durkan is the moderate candidate in the race. I would hope you actually look at their positions instead of just immediately supporting whoever you decide is more moderate, though.


No, but she's not an economically illiterate, virtue-signaling NiMBY-empowering spoken word artist with zero political experience in bed with Sawant (unlike Nikita Oliver)

She's out of the race, you don't have to keep poo-poo'ing her, KS.



Aren't there ballot challenges to sort through?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 10, 2017, 09:17:20 PM
Kingpoleon:

A good way to understand Seattle politics is to accept that everyone is REALLY progressive/left-wing and then judge them on the issues. Durkan may be to Moon's left on certain things, and to her right on others. It really boils down to the best portfolio of views. That's why even though hes way to my left I've always respected Mike McGinn (aka Mike McSchwinn) because he was a staunch urbanist, supported the SoDo Arena (unlike Ed Murray) and history proved him right on the waterfront tunnel with the Bertha fiasco. It's too bad he was an abrasive weirdo, because he's so superior to Murray on urban issues, IMO, even though Murray is probably the more "moderate"


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on August 11, 2017, 03:24:55 AM
^ Is it not too boring when everyone and his/her grandfather is commited to (essentially) the same ideology? It doesn't matter whether it's far left or (as in some areas) - far right. Without diversity of ideologies politics becomes senseless, IMHO... It's like as it was in Russia under Soviet rule, when all, that existed, was "united block of Communists and non-party members" (under strong Communist dominance, of course).....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 11, 2017, 08:50:28 AM
^ Is it not too boring when everyone and his/her grandfather is commited to (essentially) the same ideology? It doesn't matter whether it's far left or (as in some areas) - far right. Without diversity of ideologies politics becomes senseless, IMHO... It's like as it was in Russia under Soviet rule, when all, that existed, was "united block of Communists and non-party members" (under strong Communist dominance, of course).....

No, actually, Seattle politics are a fascinating, of sometimes depressing, showdown between the worst tendencies of both ur-progressivism and milquetoast technocratic liberalism. I'm surprised we got two candidates with such good potential as Durkan and Moon


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 11, 2017, 12:15:28 PM
I mean it's only boring if you don't find local, Seattle-related issues interesting...
And even then, there are many varying views that don't fit on Seattle's Left - Far Left spectrum at all.

You've got the issues: housing affordability, homelessness, transit/traffic, and inequality/inequity that don't impact non-Seattleites, but then there isn't some delineated line broken down by ideology, which makes it fascinating to watch. There are Socialist urbanists, who are pro-housing and pro-development, rich single-family home owning establishment/business Ds that want to "preserve" their neighborhoods, and renting, low-income minorities that oppose development due to the threat of displacement, among many other, non conforming Lefty groups.

There's a lot more nuance to local politics than there is to national politics.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 11, 2017, 03:18:55 PM
I mean it's only boring if you don't find local, Seattle-related issues interesting...
And even then, there are many varying views that don't fit on Seattle's Left - Far Left spectrum at all.

You've got the issues: housing affordability, homelessness, transit/traffic, and inequality/inequity that don't impact non-Seattleites, but then there isn't some delineated line broken down by ideology, which makes it fascinating to watch. There are Socialist urbanists, who are pro-housing and pro-development, rich single-family home owning establishment/business Ds that want to "preserve" their neighborhoods, and renting, low-income minorities that oppose development due to the threat of displacement, among many other, non conforming Lefty groups.

There's a lot more nuance to local politics than there is to national politics.

Well said!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 11, 2017, 05:33:41 PM
Some more precinct-level data from the Mayoral election:

http://crosscut.com/2017/08/who-voted-for-who-a-deep-dive-into-seattles-election-results-data/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on August 12, 2017, 01:55:26 AM
^ Thanks to all! And still - while local issues are very important (in fact - the jmost important in our day-to-day life) i hold an opinion that near unanimity on most "global issues" (taxation, social issues and so on) is not so good. Even when these issues (i am a liberal on social one's too, though i am straight) are dear to my heart. IMHO- it's only slightly better then near-universal Bible-thumping socially conservative unanimity in many areas of the South and some - MidWest. I value and cherish diverity, and not only on local issues..... And when i see a situation when even most sane and reasonable representatives of a party can't get elected even locally (say, San Francisco or Marin county, California,  or Montgomery county, MD, which, until recently, supplied very reasonable Republicans to state legislature, and now doesn't has any even on local level, or East Texas (ancestrally Democratic area, where now even a dogcatcer is a Republican)) strictly because of "party label" - IMHO, it's not good...

Returning to Seattle - IIRC until early 90th (and for some short period in mid-90th) it had a Republican city councilman (Paul Kraabel), who was almost universaly praised by both Democrats and Republicans for his work. It's difficult to imagine it now, but i still hold an opinion that it could be useful...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 16, 2017, 05:18:22 PM
Oliver concedes:

http://www.thestranger.com/slog/2017/08/15/25350082/nikkita-oliver-concedes-mayoral-race-will-not-endorse-cary-moon-or-jenny-durkan

Frankly, I thought her concession statement had the feeling of sour grapes, especially since she had previously pledged to support Moon (and vice versa). My distaste for Oliver has been well documented here, though, so that may be my bias coloring it. Still, as someone who could have a crack at Harrell in the future, I'm surprised she worded things so strongly as I imagine neither Durkan nor Moon will be a prototypical ally of Harrell the Hack

Race IMO is Lean Durkan. It'll be interesting to see how many Oliver/Hasegawa/McGinn voters Moon can consolidate, i anticipate her and Durkan splitting Farrell's supporters evenly


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 25, 2017, 11:47:20 AM
Out of curiosity - does anyone know who draws City Council districts post-2020? IIRC the current lines were imposed by the initiative backers


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on September 04, 2017, 05:08:56 PM
Out of curiosity - does anyone know who draws City Council districts post-2020? IIRC the current lines were imposed by the initiative backers

"Every ten years, the district boundaries would be re-designated by a five-member Districting Commission composed of two members appointed by the Mayor, two by a two-thirds vote of the City Council, and the fifth appointed by the first four.  The first Commission must be appointed by October 31, 2022.  The Districting Commission must appoint a master who must draw a districting plan.  The population of the largest district cannot exceed the population of the smallest district by more than one percent.  To the extent possible, natural boundaries must be taken into account.  The Districting Commission must then develop, and approve by majority vote, a districting proposal.  After public comment, the Commission must approve a final districting plan, which must be filed with the City Clerk.  Upon filing with the City Clerk, the districting plan will become final."


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on September 05, 2017, 03:07:40 PM
Out of curiosity - does anyone know who draws City Council districts post-2020? IIRC the current lines were imposed by the initiative backers

"Every ten years, the district boundaries would be re-designated by a five-member Districting Commission composed of two members appointed by the Mayor, two by a two-thirds vote of the City Council, and the fifth appointed by the first four.  The first Commission must be appointed by October 31, 2022.  The Districting Commission must appoint a master who must draw a districting plan.  The population of the largest district cannot exceed the population of the smallest district by more than one percent.  To the extent possible, natural boundaries must be taken into account.  The Districting Commission must then develop, and approve by majority vote, a districting proposal.  After public comment, the Commission must approve a final districting plan, which must be filed with the City Clerk.  Upon filing with the City Clerk, the districting plan will become final."

Interesting that city council has no say. I'm curious if anyone has gamed out what the districts may look like - some neighborhoods are definitely growing faster than others.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on September 05, 2017, 06:13:47 PM
Districts 7 (downtown, Queen Anne, and Magnolia) and 3 (Capitol Hill, First Hill, Central Area) will shrink, particularly 7. My guess is Magnolia goes to 6 (Ballard and Northwest Seattle), although 6 will likely shrink a bit.

5 (North Seattle) will have to grow the most, followed by 1 (West Seattle), 4 (Northeast Seattle, U District, Wallingford), and 2 (South Seattle). The latter two probably only grow a bit, but that's challenging for 1 as its borders are perfectly aligned with the Duwamish. It'll likely have to take all of SoDo and creep up into Pioneer Square. 2 is easy, it'll eat 3's area south of I90.
Link to map:http://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/elections/elections/~/media/depts/elections/elections/maps/seattle-city-council-maps/seattle-city-council-districts.ashx (http://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/elections/elections/~/media/depts/elections/elections/maps/seattle-city-council-maps/seattle-city-council-districts.ashx)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on September 06, 2017, 02:08:25 PM
Districts 7 (downtown, Queen Anne, and Magnolia) and 3 (Capitol Hill, First Hill, Central Area) will shrink, particularly 7. My guess is Magnolia goes to 6 (Ballard and Northwest Seattle), although 6 will likely shrink a bit.

5 (North Seattle) will have to grow the most, followed by 1 (West Seattle), 4 (Northeast Seattle, U District, Wallingford), and 2 (South Seattle). The latter two probably only grow a bit, but that's challenging for 1 as its borders are perfectly aligned with the Duwamish. It'll likely have to take all of SoDo and creep up into Pioneer Square. 2 is easy, it'll eat 3's area south of I90.
Link to map:http://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/elections/elections/~/media/depts/elections/elections/maps/seattle-city-council-maps/seattle-city-council-districts.ashx (http://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/elections/elections/~/media/depts/elections/elections/maps/seattle-city-council-maps/seattle-city-council-districts.ashx)

Yeah the map definitely won't be as clean.

In light of the Reichert news, I'm curious if some bigger names take a run at the 8th and if that opens the door for current candidates to drop down into the Leg races



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on September 06, 2017, 04:25:17 PM
I wonder if Issaquah city councilor Tola Marts drops down to run in LD-5 if Mallet runs. Or perhaps he'd challenge Rodne or Graves anyway.

No one's mentioned her in the other thread, but popular LD-47 rep Pat Sullivan could make a run for it.
I'm really surprised that moderate (& young) Joe Fain isn't taking a stab at it. Maybe he thinks he wouldn't make it to the top two.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on September 06, 2017, 05:09:52 PM
I wonder if Issaquah city councilor Tola Marts drops down to run in LD-5 if Mallet runs. Or perhaps he'd challenge Rodne or Graves anyway.

No one's mentioned her in the other thread, but popular LD-47 rep Pat Sullivan could make a run for it.
I'm really surprised that moderate (& young) Joe Fain isn't taking a stab at it. Maybe he thinks he wouldn't make it to the top two.

I think Fain wants Mark Schoesler's job, at least that's my suspicion. Especially now that he's the last Bold Moderate Eastside RepublicanTM that's left.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on September 07, 2017, 03:33:13 AM
I wonder if Issaquah city councilor Tola Marts drops down to run in LD-5 if Mallet runs. Or perhaps he'd challenge Rodne or Graves anyway.

No one's mentioned her in the other thread, but popular LD-47 rep Pat Sullivan could make a run for it.
I'm really surprised that moderate (& young) Joe Fain isn't taking a stab at it. Maybe he thinks he wouldn't make it to the top two.

I think Fain wants Mark Schoesler's job, at least that's my suspicion. Especially now that he's the last Bold Moderate Eastside RepublicanTM that's left.



No one else left? Even in Bellevue, Redmond and Mercer Island councils????


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on September 07, 2017, 08:51:37 AM
I wonder if Issaquah city councilor Tola Marts drops down to run in LD-5 if Mallet runs. Or perhaps he'd challenge Rodne or Graves anyway.

No one's mentioned her in the other thread, but popular LD-47 rep Pat Sullivan could make a run for it.
I'm really surprised that moderate (& young) Joe Fain isn't taking a stab at it. Maybe he thinks he wouldn't make it to the top two.

I think Fain wants Mark Schoesler's job, at least that's my suspicion. Especially now that he's the last Bold Moderate Eastside RepublicanTM that's left.



No one else left? Even in Bellevue, Redmond and Mercer Island councils????

Rossi - filling in during vacancies
Rodney Tom - switched parties (twice), retired when Habib lined him up
Steve Litzow - defeated
Andy Hill - died, sadly
Kathy Lambert - likely the last Republican for a long time who will hold her current council seat
Reagan Dunn - his last statewide foray didn't go well. Would probably lose WA-8
Rob McKenna - the golden boy, likely done with elective politics for the foreseeable future

Am I missing anyone? 16 years ago this was a deep future bench for the WAGOP. Last year they had to draft total rando Bill Bryant just to have a warm body against Jay Inslee. All three Dem front runners in '20 are MUCH more exciting and engaging politicians than Inslee.

The old backbone of the WAGOP is gone.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on September 07, 2017, 11:24:24 AM
^ I know all those persons)) That's why i asked about members of city councils, which i couldn't know. Like John Chelminiak (Bellevue)... Probably - there are others too. And i am not so sure that Reagan Dunn will neccessarily lose WA-08 too...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on September 07, 2017, 11:32:30 AM
^ I know all those persons)) That's why i asked about members of city councils, which i couldn't know. Like John Chelminiak (Bellevue)...

Bellevue's city council was conservative majority as recently as a few years ago, but I believe it has flipped. Redmond, Mercer Island and Kirkland are all pretty standard suburban Dem


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on September 07, 2017, 11:33:49 AM
Well, thanks! Still i believe the district will be very competitive next year, and that Republicans will have good candidate too. We shall see...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on September 12, 2017, 04:26:42 PM
Breaking: Murray Out Tomorrow

http://www.thestranger.com/slog/2017/09/12/25408886/seattle-mayor-ed-murray-will-resign-after-cousin-accuses-him-of-sexual-abuse


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on September 15, 2017, 09:47:06 PM
Seattle Times is reporting that Bruce Harrell does not want to be mayor and therefore the council will have to choose someone else - probably Tim Burgess. This will not stop some people from freaking out that the council will nominate Sawant.  I'd love to see the meltdown though.






Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on September 26, 2017, 02:19:03 PM
Per DKE there's apparently a poll out there somewhere with Dhingra up 55-41. Specials can be hard to poll but I think that will be close to the final margin, personally. Figure a lot of those undecideds break D. And once Dhingra is seated (presuming a massive upset doesn't occur) then the Senate GOP's witch hunt against Sound Transit can end.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on September 27, 2017, 10:55:36 AM
Englund campaign is getting hilariously  desperate. Now blaming Dhingra for Amazon seeking their secondary HQ and claiming that she wants to help Kshama Sawant and Ed Murray "impose Seattle values on the Eastside." Heroin injection sites and "cash grabs!" were bandied around too.

Pro tip, GOP: it's not the 1980s anymore


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: mds32 on September 27, 2017, 01:59:09 PM
I saw this on DailyKos:

Olympia City Council Seat 6 Aug. 1st Election Results

Jeannine Roe (R-inc) — 45.57% (4237)

Renata Rollins (G) — 37.02% (3,442)

Michael Snodgrass (D) — 17.4% (1618)

Greens and Democrats have teamed up to fund and support Renata Rollins (G) in the runoff on Nov. 7th to take this Olympia, WA (pop. 51.2k) city council seat. This is a way to push Jill Stein out of our minds and realize that Greens and Dems can work together against Republicans when necessary. Jeannine Roe is a confirmed Republican City Councilor.

This is a seat that we as a coalition can definitely win, and the Green Party would actually have a chance to grow. Greens, when they don’t cause ballot splitting catastrophes, should most certainly be given the chance to govern. Cam Gordon (G) is a city councilor on the Minneapolis City Council, the largest city council with a Green Party officeholder currently.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on September 27, 2017, 03:17:53 PM
I saw this on DailyKos:

Olympia City Council Seat 6 Aug. 1st Election Results

Jeannine Roe (R-inc) — 45.57% (4237)

Renata Rollins (G) — 37.02% (3,442)

Michael Snodgrass (D) — 17.4% (1618)

Greens and Democrats have teamed up to fund and support Renata Rollins (G) in the runoff on Nov. 7th to take this Olympia, WA (pop. 51.2k) city council seat. This is a way to push Jill Stein out of our minds and realize that Greens and Dems can work together against Republicans when necessary. Jeannine Roe is a confirmed Republican City Councilor.

This is a seat that we as a coalition can definitely win, and the Green Party would actually have a chance to grow. Greens, when they don’t cause ballot splitting catastrophes, should most certainly be given the chance to govern. Cam Gordon (G) is a city councilor on the Minneapolis City Council, the largest city council with a Green Party officeholder currently.

Could happen. Olympia is a pretty progressive town (see: Evergreens State, which had a rep as hippyland even a decade ago)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on September 30, 2017, 01:08:37 AM
Bgwah in another forum pointed out that Washington state OFM released their 2017 population estimates for smaller entities, like legislative districts!

And so now we have a picture of how Seattle's explosive growth will shape redistricting come 2020.
Based on a population of 7,310,300, each district should have 149,190 people.

Districts by numeric and percent growth between 2010-2017:

1. 43rd (Capitol Hill, First Hill, Central Area, U District),     173,641, 36,389, 26.51%
2. 36th (South Lake Union, Belltown, Queen Anne, Ballard),  167,352, 30,105, 21.94%

3. 1st (Bothell, Juanita, unincorporated Snoho),                   159,308, 22,072, 16.08%
4. 37th (Pioneer Square, South Seattle, Skyway),            157,001, 19,809, 14.44%
5. 21st (Edmonds, Mukilteo, Mill Creek),                             155,896, 18,636, 13.58%
6. 18th (Exurban Clark County),                                         154,432, 17,215, 12.55%
7. 9th (Pullman, rural counties, West Pasco),                       153,937, 16,714, 12.18%
8. 44th (Lake Stevens, Snohomish, Mill Creek),                   153,400, 16,154, 11.77%
9. 5th (North Bend, Sammamish, Issaquah),                       153,230, 16,020, 11.68%
10. 2nd (Rural Pierce Co, Lacey, Yelm),                               152,987, 15,785, 11.51%
11. 22nd (Olympia, Lacey),                                                152,822, 15,583, 11.36%
12. 8th (Richland, Kennewick),                                           152,477, 15,275, 11.13%
13. 31st (Exurban and rural King/Pierce)                             152,397, 15,183, 11.07%
14. 17th (East Vancouver, Battleground),                            152,203, 14,973, 10.91%
15. 48th (Redmond, Kirkland, Bellevue),                             151,660, 14,434, 10.52%
16. 34th (West Seattle, Burien, Vashon Island)                151,238, 14,030, 10.23%
....
22. 46th (NE Seattle, Northgate, Shoreline, Kenmore)      149,079, 11,826, 8.62%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on September 30, 2017, 02:55:13 PM
Bgwah in another forum pointed out that Washington state OFM released their 2017 population estimates for smaller entities, like legislative districts!

And so now we have a picture of how Seattle's explosive growth will shape redistricting come 2020.
Based on a population of 7,310,300, each district should have 149,190 people.

Districts by numeric and percent growth between 2010-2017:

1. 43rd (Capitol Hill, First Hill, Central Area, U District),     173,641, 36,389, 26.51%
2. 36th (South Lake Union, Belltown, Queen Anne, Ballard),  167,352, 30,105, 21.94%

3. 1st (Bothell, Juanita, unincorporated Snoho),                   159,308, 22,072, 16.08%
4. 37th (Pioneer Square, South Seattle, Skyway),            157,001, 19,809, 14.44%
5. 21st (Edmonds, Mukilteo, Mill Creek),                             155,896, 18,636, 13.58%
6. 18th (Exurban Clark County),                                         154,432, 17,215, 12.55%
7. 9th (Pullman, rural counties, West Pasco),                       153,937, 16,714, 12.18%
8. 44th (Lake Stevens, Snohomish, Mill Creek),                   153,400, 16,154, 11.77%
9. 5th (North Bend, Sammamish, Issaquah),                       153,230, 16,020, 11.68%
10. 2nd (Rural Pierce Co, Lacey, Yelm),                               152,987, 15,785, 11.51%
11. 22nd (Olympia, Lacey),                                                152,822, 15,583, 11.36%
12. 8th (Richland, Kennewick),                                           152,477, 15,275, 11.13%
13. 31st (Exurban and rural King/Pierce)                             152,397, 15,183, 11.07%
14. 17th (East Vancouver, Battleground),                            152,203, 14,973, 10.91%
15. 48th (Redmond, Kirkland, Bellevue),                             151,660, 14,434, 10.52%
16. 34th (West Seattle, Burien, Vashon Island)                151,238, 14,030, 10.23%
....
22. 46th (NE Seattle, Northgate, Shoreline, Kenmore)      149,079, 11,826, 8.62%

This is awesome! Do you know where the original data/projections was posted by bgwah?

Those raw numbers in the fastest growing districts are nuts. Crazy to think I live in the 3rd fastest growing one (LD1. North Bothell is growing like gangbusters). The lines in Jing County will be really different in the 2020s


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on September 30, 2017, 05:51:44 PM
Here you go: http://ofm.wa.gov/pop/smallarea/default.asp

Im surprised to see some far flung suburbs and exurbs growing quickly too. Looks like tract housing is all the rage again in suburban Snohomish county. Boo.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on September 30, 2017, 06:19:34 PM
Here you go: http://ofm.wa.gov/pop/smallarea/default.asp

Im surprised to see some far flung suburbs and exurbs growing quickly too. Looks like tract housing is all the rage again in suburban Snohomish county. Boo.

I believe both Lynnwood and Everett have long term plans for downtown density (color me skeptical), but other than that yeah it's pretty sprawl-y.

It's crazy that some of those Seattle districts are 15-20k overpopulated. Those people will have to go somewhere. The new maps should definitely advantage Democrats more than the current ones, especially if there's 27 districts growing more slowly than a relatively median district like the 46th. Lot of places that will need to take on more land.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on September 30, 2017, 07:00:46 PM
Definitely. Seattle has enough people for 4.78 districts and will probably be just below 5 for the census.
There will be at least 6 districts based in Seattle, and likely a 7th taking a small 20-30k remainder (like the 11th and 32nd currently do).

I think the casualty district will come from the Olympic Peninsula/Coast/SW Washington.
The 19th (Gray's Harbor, Pacific, and Longview) was the slowest growing +1.19%, while the 24th (Olympic Peninsula) and 35th (Mason County) were bottom 10. Also the 20th grew pretty slowly (Lewis/Clark/Thurston counties).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on September 30, 2017, 07:18:52 PM
Definitely. Seattle has enough people for 4.78 districts and will probably be just below 5 for the census.
There will be at least 6 districts based in Seattle, and likely a 7th taking a small 20-30k remainder (like the 11th and 32nd currently do).

I think the casualty district will come from the Olympic Peninsula/Coast/SW Washington.
The 19th (Gray's Harbor, Pacific, and Longview) was the slowest growing +1.19%, while the 24th (Olympic Peninsula) and 35th (Mason County) were bottom 10. Also the 20th grew pretty slowly (Lewis/Clark/Thurston counties).

Yup. Those districts are probably eventually gone for Dems anyhow


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on October 03, 2017, 06:36:56 PM
I think Dems could hold a district that was a combo of the current 24th and 35th, coming from someone who lives here.

Alternatively just fold the 19th into the 20th, since the trend there seems terminal.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on October 03, 2017, 10:13:43 PM
I think Dems could hold a district that was a combo of the current 24th and 35th, coming from someone who lives here.

Alternatively just fold the 19th into the 20th, since the trend there seems terminal.

Figuring out a way to draw Tim Sheldon out of a district would be a great start, at least


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on October 17, 2017, 04:50:57 PM
In a shock turn of events, the Seattle Times is endorsing Jon Grant. (https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/editorials/the-times-recommends-jon-grant-seattle-city-council-position-8/)

I'm certainly not complaining but this a shock from the stiffs at the Times editorial board.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 17, 2017, 05:05:17 PM
In a shock turn of events, the Seattle Times is endorsing Jon Grant. (https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/editorials/the-times-recommends-jon-grant-seattle-city-council-position-8/)

I'm certainly not complaining but this a shock from the stiffs at the Times editorial board.

It really isn't. They're endorsing the candidate they perceive to be the most anti-density. (See Murakami endorsement (who actually is anti-density), Durkan endorsement (again, not at all so)).
They did the same with Sara Nelson (plus for other reasons), even though both her and Grant are not actually so.
Suburban Times strikes again.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on October 17, 2017, 05:13:15 PM
In a shock turn of events, the Seattle Times is endorsing Jon Grant. (https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/editorials/the-times-recommends-jon-grant-seattle-city-council-position-8/)

I'm certainly not complaining but this a shock from the stiffs at the Times editorial board.

It really isn't. They're endorsing the candidate they perceive to be the most anti-density. (See Murakami endorsement (who actually is anti-density), Durkan endorsement (again, not at all so)).
They did the same with Sara Nelson (plus for other reasons), even though both her and Grant are not actually so.
Suburban Times strikes again.

Their hatred of labor unions might factor in too.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on October 18, 2017, 09:06:38 AM
If I had to guess, Durkan wins... narrowly. Durkan would be an improvement over Murray of course but I’d like to see Moon take it. I think she “gets it” on the issues like McGinn did but isn’t an abrasive, sharp-elbowed wierdo who doesn’t play well with others.

Lol at the Times endorsing Grant. SFH Uber Alles for the Blethen Family Newsletter, nothing new under the sun. That article where the Stranger tried to figure out what on earth was going on was hilarious.

Anyways, here’s hoping Mosqueda wins.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 18, 2017, 01:02:20 PM
I think Mosqueda has it in the bag.
She'll get the vast majority of Nelson voters.

I hope Moon wins, but I think it'll be difficult. It would be nice to get some polling.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on October 18, 2017, 02:34:31 PM
I think Mosqueda has it in the bag.
She'll get the vast majority of Nelson voters.

I hope Moon wins, but I think it'll be difficult. It would be nice to get some polling.

It would.

Also. The 45th. I think Dhingra wins, probably about 54-46 or so. Her ads focus (smartly) on education and run on Hulu (which I’ve never seen before). I’ve never seen an Englund ad anywhere but CNBC and it’s the usual dire “hurrrr income tax! Injection sites!” stuff you’d have expected. The positive, sunny stuff the JLE campaign ran in the summer is long gone.

Sadly I moved out of the 45th in June otherwise Dhingra would my vote and my wife’s. We’re 13 blocks from the district line now. Oh well!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on October 18, 2017, 05:16:48 PM
I’ve been giving 2018 some thought. Besides the obvious (Rodne and Graves in the 5th, Miloscia in the 30th), I think the South Sound needs to be a place of focus for Democrats. We were once dominant down there, and the 25th and 26th should be major targets. I’d argue in favor of going on offense in Sheldonland as well, though I imagine the focus there will be on taking ol’ Tim out before looking downballot


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on October 18, 2017, 05:37:51 PM
Could someone in King County tell me if Urqhart has a chance of going down?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on October 18, 2017, 05:59:45 PM
Could someone in King County tell me if Urqhart has a chance of going down?

There’s a chance. His opponent is impressive, and I intend to vote for her.

Still think he wins, though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on October 19, 2017, 10:37:27 AM
Could someone in King County tell me if Urqhart has a chance of going down?

There’s a chance. His opponent is impressive, and I intend to vote for her.

Still think he wins, though.

Pretty much what I thought. I'd like to see him lose.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on October 19, 2017, 11:01:55 AM
Could someone in King County tell me if Urqhart has a chance of going down?

There’s a chance. His opponent is impressive, and I intend to vote for her.

Still think he wins, though.

Pretty much what I thought. I'd like to see him lose.

The sexual harassment stuff is bad enough, not to mention his habit of telling different audiences what they want to hear. Remarkably duplicitous.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on October 24, 2017, 10:29:33 PM
Poll on WA Wire puts Dhingra ahead of Englund 51-39, roughly in line with primary results.

I think that’s too big a hole for Englund to make up.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 24, 2017, 11:19:54 PM
Definitely, especially with the Sound Transit witch hunt turning up nothing. Even that stunt Senate Republicans pulled today is too lazy of an attempt (and also to late to define state Dems and too soon to be a bombshell that affects votes).

Still waiting on a mayoral poll.... tick tock...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on October 25, 2017, 09:20:34 AM
Definitely, especially with the Sound Transit witch hunt turning up nothing. Even that stunt Senate Republicans pulled today is too lazy of an attempt (and also to late to define state Dems and too soon to be a bombshell that affects votes).

Still waiting on a mayoral poll.... tick tock...

Oh great what did those hacks do this time?

Btw Washington Wire did have a poll on their site, monster Durkan lead


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 25, 2017, 11:31:08 AM
This: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/transportation/sound-transit-misled-lawmakers-on-tax-plan-republican-led-senate-panel-says/ (https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/transportation/sound-transit-misled-lawmakers-on-tax-plan-republican-led-senate-panel-says/)

That poll seems pretty junky. I figure we should at least get an Elway poll.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on October 25, 2017, 11:40:42 AM
Not that Olympia Dems have the world’s most sterling record on transportation but I can’t wait for Steve O’Ban and Curtis King to have zero input on our region’s transit priorities. An actual fix to the car tab issue can be passed, like the House Dems tried


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ajc0918 on October 25, 2017, 12:17:25 PM
Poll on WA Wire puts Dhingra ahead of Englund 51-39, roughly in line with primary results.

I think that’s too big a hole for Englund to make up.

This seems closer than I would've guessed. Is this area more republican down ballot?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on October 25, 2017, 12:54:41 PM
Poll on WA Wire puts Dhingra ahead of Englund 51-39, roughly in line with primary results.

I think that’s too big a hole for Englund to make up.

This seems closer than I would've guessed. Is this area more republican down ballot?

Much more so, historically. The Seattle Eastside (not to be confused with eastern WA) was once the backbone of the state GOP. This is Reichert/Rossi/McKenna country... at least it was. It’s very diverse (read: Indian), which gives Dhingra a big advantage.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on October 25, 2017, 05:46:35 PM
Poll on WA Wire puts Dhingra ahead of Englund 51-39, roughly in line with primary results.

I think that’s too big a hole for Englund to make up.

This seems closer than I would've guessed. Is this area more republican down ballot?

It's basically the wealthiest area in the state.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on October 25, 2017, 09:34:36 PM
Poll on WA Wire puts Dhingra ahead of Englund 51-39, roughly in line with primary results.

I think that’s too big a hole for Englund to make up.

This seems closer than I would've guessed. Is this area more republican down ballot?

It's basically the wealthiest area in the state.

I’d be interested in seeing an income breakdown of all the LDs in the state, honestly


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 03, 2017, 12:56:35 PM
My ballot:

KC Exec: Flawless Beautiful Dow <33, the future Governor of Washington
KC Council: Rod Dembowski
Sheriff: Not John Urquhart
Port Commission: Creighton, who’s ad I saw, and the Somalian guy (why we vote for this, I don’t know)
Kirkland Council: Arnold, Walen and Pascal (the STB endorsed candidates)

I also voted for the random judges, utility district and school board members who were all unopposed


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 03, 2017, 01:10:53 PM
Mine:

Mayor: Molly Moon jk, Cary Moon
Council: Teresa Mosqueda and Lorena Gonzalez
Attorney: Pete Holmes
Port: Ryan Caulkins, Ahmed Abdi (Cool Somalian former refugee, even though I like little Gregoire), and Preeti Sridhar
County Exec: and the future governor's best hair award goes to.... Dow Constantine!
County Council: Rod Dembowski


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 03, 2017, 02:50:28 PM
Preeti Sridhar, that’s it. That’s the third one.

Didn’t know Dembowski’s district extended into Seattle.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 03, 2017, 03:39:27 PM
Preeti Sridhar, that’s it. That’s the third one.

Didn’t know Dembowski’s district extended into Seattle.

Yeah, most of northeast Seattle.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 07, 2017, 02:11:19 PM
Turnout as of 8PM yesterday,

Seattle: 94,347    (20.65% turnout)
LD-45: 27,060 (29.21% turnout)

I'll post today's 12PM update when it's available.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on November 07, 2017, 02:34:50 PM
My ballot:

Mayor: Cary Moon
County Exec: Flavius Valerius Dowbertius Constantinus Augustus
Port Commissioners: Ryan Calkins, Ahmed Abdi, Preeti Shridhar
City Attorney: Pete Holmes
Seattle City Council: Teresa Mosqueda, (Future Senator) Lorena Gonzalez


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 07, 2017, 03:55:11 PM
Turnout as of 8PM yesterday,

Seattle: 94,347    (20.65% turnout)
LD-45: 27,060 (29.21% turnout)

I'll post today's 12PM update when it's available.

Seattle: 123,351 (27.00%)
LD-45: 31,821 (34.35%)

Higher turnout at this time than for the primary. Next update comes at 8PM, with the first dump of results. I wish they'd continue to update results throughout election night, as counting continues, instead of waiting until 4PM the next day.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 07, 2017, 10:00:11 PM
Turnout as of 8PM yesterday,

Seattle: 94,347    (20.65% turnout)
LD-45: 27,060 (29.21% turnout)

I'll post today's 12PM update when it's available.

Seattle: 123,351 (27.00%)
LD-45: 31,821 (34.35%)

Higher turnout at this time than for the primary. Next update comes at 8PM, with the first dump of results. I wish they'd continue to update results throughout election night, as counting continues, instead of waiting until 4PM the next day.

King county surprised with a 5PM update:

Seattle: 131,607 (28.81%)
LD-45: 32,416 (34.99%)

Eagerly awaiting results... Likely Durkan win, thinking Dhingra smashes Englund after watching the East Coast over-performance.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Vega on November 07, 2017, 10:14:34 PM
Is there a results page for Washington on the AP?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on November 07, 2017, 10:50:16 PM
Is there a results page for Washington on the AP?

Not sure about the AP, but this is where I'm getting my results: http://mynorthwest.com/category/election_race_list/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on November 07, 2017, 11:09:03 PM
She's done it.

Dhingra winning 55.42%-44.58%   







Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: TheSaint250 on November 07, 2017, 11:09:44 PM
She's done it.

Dhingra winning 55.42%-44.58%   







:(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 07, 2017, 11:10:24 PM
Ooph, Moon down 60.6-40.4, no way she can make that up. Final result will probably be 54-46.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 07, 2017, 11:11:48 PM
Mosqueda destroying Grant 61.5-38.5, Gonzalez cruising to a 67.5-32.5 victory over Murakami.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 07, 2017, 11:14:02 PM
Mosqueda destroying Grant 61.5-38.5, Gonzalez cruising to a 67.5-32.5 victory over Murakami.

Hallelujah!!

She's done it.

Dhingra winning 55.42%-44.58%   







Our Long state nightmare is over


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on November 07, 2017, 11:31:23 PM
Moon losing makes me sad, even though I only really made my final decision in the race while filling out the ballot. Seems like all good news apart from that, though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on November 08, 2017, 01:21:08 AM
Very sad the Republican won the Seattle Mayor's race but other than that a good night.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on November 08, 2017, 01:53:09 AM
Very sad the Republican won the Seattle Mayor's race but other than that a good night.

One must be mentally er-r-r..... peculiar person to call Durkan a Republican)))))


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 08, 2017, 09:22:08 AM
Very sad the Republican won the Seattle Mayor's race but other than that a good night.

Dude


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 08, 2017, 12:08:44 PM
Some unfortunate results on the Port of Seattle. Still don’t know why we vote for those hacks

Spokane kept its progressive supermajority

Spokane Valley’s most conservative councilors swept out. Internecine GOP feud between Sheriff Ozzie and Nutjob Matt Shea, but still positive

Good results for urbanists in Western WA. Mosqueda was the big one. Too bad Moon didn’t win, but I hope she helped nudge Durkan in a good direction

Sounds like we held some key Mayoralties and flipped a few, like in Kent


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 08, 2017, 12:18:13 PM
Looks like some mixed bags in terms of councils in Bellevue and Redmond. Kirkland all 3 I voted for won. And some great news! As of right now KC Sheriff Urquhart is losing to Johanknecht. Considering how late ballots break I bet it holds.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Virginiá on November 08, 2017, 02:03:16 PM
KingSweden - so when does Dhingra actually take office? It should be almost immediately, right?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 08, 2017, 03:12:11 PM
KingSweden - so when does Dhingra actually take office? It should be almost immediately, right?

A few weeks from now, I think. Votes need to be certified.

Probably late November/early December.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on November 08, 2017, 04:27:27 PM
Moon losing makes me sad, even though I only really made my final decision in the race while filling out the ballot. Seems like all good news apart from that, though.

How does Durkan compare to Moon when it comes to Sound Transit?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 08, 2017, 05:45:30 PM
Moon losing makes me sad, even though I only really made my final decision in the race while filling out the ballot. Seems like all good news apart from that, though.

How does Durkan compare to Moon when it comes to Sound Transit?

No discernible difference, IMO. Moon’s urbanist profile probably would have made her better to spearhead Transit oriented development, though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 08, 2017, 09:20:18 PM
Virtually no change in the margin after the 2nd day of counting.

Legislative District 45 - State SenatorCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Manka Dhingra(Prefers Democratic Party)
17,112   55.45%
Jinyoung Lee Englund(Prefers Republican Party)
13,749   44.55%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   30,861


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 11, 2017, 04:12:34 PM
Dhingra's mandate getting a little smaller as more ballots roll in:

Legislative District 45 - State SenatorCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Manka Dhingra(Prefers Democratic Party)
24,400   55.19%
Jinyoung Lee Englund(Prefers Republican Party)
19,812   44.81%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   44,212   


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 11, 2017, 07:52:41 PM
Dhingra's mandate getting a little smaller as more ballots roll in:

Legislative District 45 - State SenatorCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Manka Dhingra(Prefers Democratic Party)
24,400   55.19%
Jinyoung Lee Englund(Prefers Republican Party)
19,812   44.81%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   44,212   

That is not usually the trend w/ late ballots here


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 01, 2017, 02:28:34 PM
Results have been certified: http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/default.htm


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on December 02, 2017, 12:51:28 PM
And thus the Democrats now officially run the Senate

I find the choice of Steve Hobbs to run Transportation interesting. He’s a bit of a conservadem and I hope he doesn’t become Mary Margaret Haugen 2.0


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on December 08, 2017, 03:26:13 PM
Does this make Tim Sheldon a member of the Minority Coalition Caucus? :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on December 14, 2017, 04:14:56 PM
Does this make Tim Sheldon a member of the Minority Coalition Caucus? :P

Lol it certainly does

So - now with data points from this fall’s Elections... predictions for next year?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on December 14, 2017, 04:44:58 PM
I think as in 2010, the state will be hit less drastically by the impending wave.

Mark Miloscia is probably DOA given LD-30 voted out two R incumbents in 2016, plus the heavy D tilt of the district. I also think Joe Fain will go down, though if anyone survives, it's him.

I'm less familiar with the suburban districts in Pierce county that Ds made major gains in during 2004-2008, only to lose them in 2010-2014.

Another race to watch will be Jim Walsh, the R who barely won on coastal LD-19 in 2016. Can the Dems win back this Demasaur district?

Finally, the lovely Matt Manweller is facing several sexual harassment allegations in LD-13 (Ellensburg + Moses Lake), a safe R district. I think he'll probably ending up resigning, but if he doesn't he could very well lose in the primary between multiple Rs and a D.
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/times-watchdog/state-rep-matt-manweller-has-faced-sexual-misconduct-complaints-from-students/ (https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/times-watchdog/state-rep-matt-manweller-has-faced-sexual-misconduct-complaints-from-students/)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on December 14, 2017, 06:17:22 PM
I think as in 2010, the state will be hit less drastically by the impending wave.

Mark Miloscia is probably DOA given LD-30 voted out two R incumbents in 2016, plus the heavy D tilt of the district. I also think Joe Fain will go down, though if anyone survives, it's him.

I'm less familiar with the suburban districts in Pierce county that Ds made major gains in during 2004-2008, only to lose them in 2010-2014.

Another race to watch will be Jim Walsh, the R who barely won on coastal LD-19 in 2016. Can the Dems win back this Demasaur district?

Finally, the lovely Matt Manweller is facing several sexual harassment allegations in LD-13 (Ellensburg + Moses Lake), a safe R district. I think he'll probably ending up resigning, but if he doesn't he could very well lose in the primary between multiple Rs and a D.
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/times-watchdog/state-rep-matt-manweller-has-faced-sexual-misconduct-complaints-from-students/ (https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/times-watchdog/state-rep-matt-manweller-has-faced-sexual-misconduct-complaints-from-students/)

Yeah I wouldn’t be surprised by anything from D+1 to D+4 in the Senate (Angel and Baumgardner are my other two potential D pickups). I also imagine the two GOPers in the 5th could be on borrowed time


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on December 19, 2017, 09:59:58 PM
Miloscia is almost certainly a goner, Graves and Rodne are probably underdogs especially with national Dems sure to pump money into the WA-08 race.

Past that, I actually consider Fain to be a more compelling target over Angel or Baumgardner, though it's close. Dems could particularly target Jesse Young in the house seat for LD-26, who has built up a reputation as somewhat of an asshole.

Jim Walsh is probably safe. Aberdeen and Longview trended hard right last election; and Walsh has been very solid since his election, most notably taking the lead on trying to get Atlantic salmon farms banned (An issue a lot of people in this part of Washington are especially angry about).

I'm also of the opinion that the 35th is still worth spending money on. The Republicans (and Sheldon) don't win by massive marigins, and the portions of Thurston in the 35th are still solidly Democratic leaning.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on January 16, 2018, 01:50:59 PM
RIP John Spellman, the last GOP governor of Washington (1981-1985). Dead today at 91. Hard to believe today but him replacing Democrat Dixy Lee Ray actually moved the mansion to the left. The first King County Executive - he helped create the post - and an environmentalist. Very moderate even for his time, when the WA GOP was dominated by Slade Gortom and Ken Eikenberry


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on January 16, 2018, 08:56:04 PM
Former Clallam County Commissioner Jim McEntire (R) will run against State Rep. Steve Tharinger (D) in the 24th LD, per Peninsula Daily News.

Assuming Republicans don't get a foothold in the Seattle suburbs again, this is a seat they absolutely need to be competitive in if they want to ever control the legislature again. McEntire ran against Tharinger in 2010 and lost 52-47, and Tharinger has gotten around 56% in every election after that.

In addition, McEntire is a "former" Clallam County Commissioner because he lost re-election fairly badly to a decently left-wing challenger in 2014. So he's not an incredibly strong candidate, but it'll be interesting to see how he does.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on January 16, 2018, 10:22:42 PM
Former Clallam County Commissioner Jim McEntire (R) will run against State Rep. Steve Tharinger (D) in the 24th LD, per Peninsula Daily News.

Assuming Republicans don't get a foothold in the Seattle suburbs again, this is a seat they absolutely need to be competitive in if they want to ever control the legislature again. McEntire ran against Tharinger in 2010 and lost 52-47, and Tharinger has gotten around 56% in every election after that.

In addition, McEntire is a "former" Clallam County Commissioner because he lost re-election fairly badly to a decently left-wing challenger in 2014. So he's not an incredibly strong candidate, but it'll be interesting to see how he does.

Since this is your neck of the woods, do you think the GOP trend there is still ongoing or should we expect a snap back to historic Dem strength on the Peninsula?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on January 17, 2018, 03:13:48 AM
Former Clallam County Commissioner Jim McEntire (R) will run against State Rep. Steve Tharinger (D) in the 24th LD, per Peninsula Daily News.

Assuming Republicans don't get a foothold in the Seattle suburbs again, this is a seat they absolutely need to be competitive in if they want to ever control the legislature again. McEntire ran against Tharinger in 2010 and lost 52-47, and Tharinger has gotten around 56% in every election after that.

In addition, McEntire is a "former" Clallam County Commissioner because he lost re-election fairly badly to a decently left-wing challenger in 2014. So he's not an incredibly strong candidate, but it'll be interesting to see how he does.

Since this is your neck of the woods, do you think the GOP trend there is still ongoing or should we expect a snap back to historic Dem strength on the Peninsula?

The GOP trend was way less signifigant in the northern peninsula than the southern areas like Aberdeen or Shelton. Despite Trump flipping the county, the GOP raw vote total in Clallam county between 2012 and 2016 was nearly the exact same, a lot of Dems just stayed home or voted third party (Hillary was not popular here at all). Dems also crushed in the 24th in 2016 despite defending two open seats, so I'm really not at all worried.

Also Port Townsend + the native american areas on the western coast give Democrats a bigger edge than in the 19th or 35th LD's


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on January 17, 2018, 10:54:52 AM
Former Clallam County Commissioner Jim McEntire (R) will run against State Rep. Steve Tharinger (D) in the 24th LD, per Peninsula Daily News.

Assuming Republicans don't get a foothold in the Seattle suburbs again, this is a seat they absolutely need to be competitive in if they want to ever control the legislature again. McEntire ran against Tharinger in 2010 and lost 52-47, and Tharinger has gotten around 56% in every election after that.

In addition, McEntire is a "former" Clallam County Commissioner because he lost re-election fairly badly to a decently left-wing challenger in 2014. So he's not an incredibly strong candidate, but it'll be interesting to see how he does.

Since this is your neck of the woods, do you think the GOP trend there is still ongoing or should we expect a snap back to historic Dem strength on the Peninsula?

The GOP trend was way less signifigant in the northern peninsula than the southern areas like Aberdeen or Shelton. Despite Trump flipping the county, the GOP raw vote total in Clallam county between 2012 and 2016 was nearly the exact same, a lot of Dems just stayed home or voted third party (Hillary was not popular here at all). Dems also crushed in the 24th in 2016 despite defending two open seats, so I'm really not at all worried.

Also Port Townsend + the native american areas on the western coast give Democrats a bigger edge than in the 19th or 35th LD's

I suspected Port Townsend helps keep things out of danger territory. Probably still best for us to keep an eye on this area in future races. Though the three guys in the 24th all seem fairly impressive


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on February 15, 2018, 01:14:57 PM
Looking at the roll call vote for some of the major bills that have passed the legislature in the past few days. Signs of vunerability from the Seattle-Tacoma metro R's.

Fain and Miloscia voted to ban the death penalty, Hans Zeiger joined with them and  voted to ban bump stocks.

Senators Walsh, Hawkins, and Warnick also joined with D's on the death penalty repeal. All 3 represent solid R eastern WA districts (Warnick representing the most R leaning seat in the Senate even) 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on February 15, 2018, 02:19:12 PM
Maureen Walsh is surprisingly moderate for her district, and support for the death penalty is softer than it once was (Walsh even sponsored the death penalty repeal).

I’m curious who the Dems who voted *against* repeal are.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on February 15, 2018, 03:21:00 PM
Maureen Walsh is surprisingly moderate for her district, and support for the death penalty is softer than it once was (Walsh even sponsored the death penalty repeal).

I’m curious who the Dems who voted *against* repeal are.

Van de Wege, Takko, Conway, and Hobbs

Conway sticks out like a sore thumb there, representing a diverse urban Tacoma district.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on February 15, 2018, 03:39:32 PM
Maureen Walsh is surprisingly moderate for her district, and support for the death penalty is softer than it once was (Walsh even sponsored the death penalty repeal).

I’m curious who the Dems who voted *against* repeal are.

Van de Wege, Takko, Conway, and Hobbs

Conway sticks out like a sore thumb there, representing a diverse urban Tacoma district.

Lol wut Steve Conway? He must just... he must have strong feelings about it. The other three I get.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on February 17, 2018, 08:07:37 PM
LD-25: State Rep. Melanie Stambaugh will retire after two terms at the ripe old age of 27.

https://twitter.com/walkerorenstein/status/964992065212837889?ref_src=twcamp%5Ecopy%7Ctwsrc%5Eandroid%7Ctwgr%5Ecopy%7Ctwcon%5E7090%7Ctwterm%5E1


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on February 28, 2018, 09:32:38 PM
Baumgartner (R, LD-6) is not running for reelection to the state senate and will instead run for Spokane County auditor. I already had this as Likely R, but I think it now deserves Tilt R rating. Depending on who runs, this could be a great pick up opportunity. I believe it was Trump +1.5 or so.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ted Cruz 2024 on February 28, 2018, 09:39:09 PM
I think the GOP (might) flip both the state senate and state House. The carbon tax isn’t going to be smart for the Democrats considering it failed by 25 points in 2016. I believe if the GOP plays there cards right an 25-24 and 50-48 state House and senate could happen.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on February 28, 2018, 09:55:36 PM
Those are HUGE pickup opportunities. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Democrats flip the other 25th HoR seat, too.

I think the GOP (might) flip both the state senate and state House. The carbon tax isn’t going to be smart for the Democrats considering it failed by 25 points in 2016. I believe if the GOP plays there cards right an 25-24 and 50-48 state House and senate could happen.

lol ok sure


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on March 01, 2018, 12:16:25 AM
I'm dumb, I meant LD-6. Derp.

But yes, both LD-25 House seats will be prime pick up opportunities in a Trump +1.3 district that voted for Obama twice (45.2-46.5).

Do you think Matt Shea has any chance of being voted out?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 01, 2018, 12:38:11 AM
I'm dumb, I meant LD-6. Derp.

But yes, both LD-25 House seats will be prime pick up opportunities in a Trump +1.3 district that voted for Obama twice (45.2-46.5).

Do you think Matt Shea has any chance of being voted out?

The Ozzie Knezovich faction of the Spokane County GOP will be gunning for him as always. Hard to say, he’s survived so far.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 01, 2018, 01:36:38 PM
Did I miss the announcement that Jay Rodne is retiring too? Big if true. Ds should flip both seats in the 5th.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on March 01, 2018, 02:45:21 PM
Totally missed that!
However, former rep Chad Magendanz who unsuccessfully ran to unseat Mullet in 2016 is running to replace Rodne.
Still probably the strongest current House pick up opportunity.

Also, a watered down version of automatic voter registration was passed yesterday. Those applying for/renewing their enhanced driver's licenses are automatically registered (and so will a couple of other state departments like veteran affairs, agriculture, and military stuff).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on March 21, 2018, 12:38:26 PM
How is Legislative recruiting coming along? Filing deadline is fairly soon yeah?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on March 21, 2018, 01:37:47 PM
How is Legislative recruiting coming along? Filing deadline is fairly soon yeah?

May 18th, IIRC....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on May 03, 2018, 08:43:59 PM
This, but unironically.

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 03, 2018, 09:20:07 PM

Lol. Seattle Times I presume?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: publicunofficial on May 03, 2018, 11:21:12 PM

See the upper right hand corner.

Who else will speak out for Seattle's business community?!?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 04, 2018, 08:53:57 AM

See the upper right hand corner.

Who else will speak out for Seattle's business community?!?

Ah I missed that, but who else would it have been.

I’m honestly quite ambivalent about the “head tax,” don’t think it’s an efficient approach (we should just do an income tax or, if we want to be really innovative, a Georgist land tax), but this cartoon is wayyyyyy way way over the top.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 04, 2018, 09:25:22 AM
This whole saga renews my rage... at Seattle's absurd zoning.
The homelessness crisis would be so much more manageable if this city stopped treating the vast majority of its mass as a sanctuary for the endangered single family home.

Plus, Id love to see the pursed face of some Laurelhurst wine mom as a triplex goes up next to her "character" home.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 04, 2018, 09:33:33 AM
This whole saga renews my rage... at Seattle's absurd zoning.
The homelessness crisis would be so much more manageable if this city stopped treating the vast majority of its mass as a sanctuary for the endangered single family home.

Plus, Id love to see the pursed face of some Laurelhurst wine mom as a triplex goes up next to her "character" home.

Yes, thank you!!! It’s the homeowners not the employers causing this crisis.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 14, 2018, 10:28:07 AM
Filing in WA opens today. Interested in any nuggets about WA legislative races anyone has.

And man is this thread going to feel empty without publicunofficial :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 14, 2018, 12:48:45 PM
Found something! From the Seattle Times (rag):

Granted I’m skeptical that Democrats come within sniffing distance of any of these districts save for the 25th, which are a ripe target with (apparently) 2 vacancies.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-democrats-eager-to-compete-for-legislative-seats-long-controlled-by-gop/?utm_source=referral&utm_medium=mobile-app&utm_campaign=ios


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 14, 2018, 11:14:30 PM
Did publicunofficial get banned?

Didn't realize Joyce McDonald is retiring. The 25th is a rare 2x Obama suburban seat that Trump won.

Kind of frustrating that Times article doesn't actually spell out the retirements. Couldn't find any other details searching google on my phone.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 14, 2018, 11:28:52 PM
Did publicunofficial get banned?

Didn't realize Joyce McDonald is retiring. The 25th is a rare 2x Obama suburban seat that Trump won.

Kind of frustrating that Times article doesn't actually spell out the retirements. Couldn't find any other details searching google on my phone.

He did get banned, the reasons should be detailed under the Recent Bans megathread.

I’m sure the SOS site should have everything once filing closes Friday, though that’s not a good way to weed out who is and isn’t a serious candidate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 15, 2018, 07:06:44 PM
Whaaaat... In addition to GoodSpaceGuy running for senate, Rocky de la Fuente is as well. Ironically, Cantwell has yet to file her paperwork (lol).

Cantwell is going to win 65-35 at this rate, if this is all the GOP has to offer:
http://bryantforussenate.com/
http://higgins4senate.com/index.html
https://keithswankforsenate.com/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 18, 2018, 09:19:52 PM
Filing deadline has closed.

30 (!!) candidates filed to run for the senate race That's going to be one hell of a ballot.
As mentioned before, Rocky de la Fuente is running, make it 3 (?, CA, FL, and WA) states he's filed in... how is that legal?

In addition, GoodSpaceGuy (perennial nutty candidate), Alex Tsimerman (nut job wacko who was banned from Seattle city hall for being physically disruptive), and Susan Hutchinson (former TV anchor and most likely opponent) filed.

Other notes:

WA-4 will have a D-R contest for the first time since 2012. Only Newhouse (R) and Christine Brown (D) filed.

WA-9 may see a D-D, Smith-Smith contest between Adam and Sarah, if she can get more votes than perennial candidate Doug Basler (R) in the primary.

LD-5 Pos 1: Chad Magendanz is trying to get back into the House after losing to Senator Mark Mullet in 2016.
LD-26 Senate: Jan Angel (R) last minute retires, Marty McClendon (R, on the Pierce County Commission) to face likely D challenger Emily Randall. Very good D pick up opportunity in a district Trump/Clinton tied in.
LD-30 Pos. 2: Mike Pellicciotti (D) is being re-challenged by Linda Kochmar (R) who he unseated in 2016.
LD-34 Senate: A true clowncar in the making. This open seat features like 6 Ds, most notably, Shannon Braddock who in 2015 lost by 39 votes to current Seattle city councilmember Lisa Herbold. Freshly defeated former Burien Councilmember and Trump-supporting "Independent" Debi Wagner is running, as well as Her friend, Darla Green (R), who lost in a landslide to liberal Burien councilmember Nancy Tosta are also running. This is Icespear's new district.
LD-35 Senate: This looks like a repeat of 2016's D-D runoff between Tim Sheldon (DINO) and Irene Bowling (D).
LD-48 Senate: Rodney Tom (DINO) is back and trying to unseat Patty Kuderer (D)

Unchallenged by major party districts:

LD-2 Pos. 2: J.T. Wilcox (R) unchallenged
LD-11 Pos. 1 and 2: Both Zack Hudgins (D) and Steve Bergquist (D) are unchallenged
LD-13 Senate: Judy Warnick (R) unchallenged
LD-22 Pos. 1 and 2: Laurie Dolan (D) and Beth Doglio (D) face Independent/Libertarian, no Rs on ballot
LD-23 Pos. 1 and 2: Sherry Appleton (D) faces a "No party preference" candidate, Drew Hansen (D) is unchallenged, no Rs on ballot
LD-27 Pos. 2: Donald Golden (D) faces an independent, no R on ballot
LD-29 Senate and Pos. 2: Steve Conway (D) faces an independent, no R on ballot, Steve Kirby (D) is unchallenged
LD-33 Pos. 1: Tina Orwall (D) is unchallenged
LD-34 Pos. 1 and 2: Eileen Cody (D) and Joe Fitzgibbon (D) are unchallenged
LD-36 Senate, Pos. 1, and 2: Reuven Carlyle (D), Noel Frame (D), and Gael Tarleton (D). No Rs running here, but the Libertarian Party has put up a full slate!
LD-37 Pos. 1 and 2: Sharon Tomiko Santos (D) goes unchallenged, Eric Pettigrew (D) faces either a no party or independent, no Rs on ballot
LD-38 Pos. 1 and 2: June Robinson (D) will face an independent party cadidate, Mike Sells (D) is unchallenged, no Rs on ballot
LD-40 Pos. 2: Jeff Morris (D) is unchallenged
LD-48 Pos. 1 and 2: Vandana Slater (D) is unchallenged, Amy Walen (D), mayor of Kirkland faces fellow D, Cindi Bright
LD-49 Pos. 1 and 2: Sharon Wylie (D) and Monica Stonier (D) are unchallenged

Ds did a fantastic job, putting up candidates in all but one Senate and House position. Rs.... not so much.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 18, 2018, 10:12:00 PM
Thanks for the rundown!

Why is Sharon Nelson retiring?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 19, 2018, 04:05:45 PM
And importantly, who will succeed her as Majority Leader?

This was from the ST article I found:

Quote
“Five years ago, when I became leader, my goals were to build a strong caucus and to retake the majority and to show what that majority meant to the state of Washington,” Nelson wrote in the email. “My goals have been achieved.”

Also, why Joe Fain (R) has held on in +20 Clinton district:

Quote
In a statement, Sen. Joe Fain, R-Auburn, called Nelson “a passionate advocate for women in leadership” who “prioritized the needs of vulnerable and often underrepresented communities.”

“While she has always been a staunch Democrat, her ability to see both sides of an issue and respect those with different perspectives, including those with whom she strongly disagrees with, will be missed,” wrote Fain, who also served as a Metropolitan King County Council staffer.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 19, 2018, 06:45:16 PM
And importantly, who will succeed her as Majority Leader?

This was from the ST article I found:

Quote
“Five years ago, when I became leader, my goals were to build a strong caucus and to retake the majority and to show what that majority meant to the state of Washington,” Nelson wrote in the email. “My goals have been achieved.”

Also, why Joe Fain (R) has held on in +20 Clinton district:

Quote
In a statement, Sen. Joe Fain, R-Auburn, called Nelson “a passionate advocate for women in leadership” who “prioritized the needs of vulnerable and often underrepresented communities.”

“While she has always been a staunch Democrat, her ability to see both sides of an issue and respect those with different perspectives, including those with whom she strongly disagrees with, will be missed,” wrote Fain, who also served as a Metropolitan King County Council staffer.

I would not be surprised if he held on this fall, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he lost. He’s an underrated talent in such hostile territory


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 20, 2018, 12:11:39 AM
He's got a seemingly strong challenger, but if there's a suburban R survivor, I think it's him. The R holding one of the House positions is probably on track to lose. A correction, LD-47 is only Clinton +16.
Milloscia is going to be eviscerated in LD-30, which is Clinton +21.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on May 31, 2018, 09:11:59 AM
King County DA Dan Satterberg is a Democrat now.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/389852-seattle-area-prosecutor-an-elected-republican-flips-to-democratic-party


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on June 01, 2018, 12:31:10 PM
The approval numbers for The Donald in Washington:

https://www.nwprogressive.org/weblog/2018/05/no-surprise-npi-poll-finds-washingtonians-dont-like-donald-trumps-job-performance.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on June 30, 2018, 08:00:29 PM
Does anyone have any updates on the WA-8 race? The candidates seem remarkably similar and I'm concerned that the Democrats are not running a strong campaign against Rossi, but since I no longer live there I'm curious what things are like on the ground.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on June 30, 2018, 08:05:19 PM
Does anyone have any updates on the WA-8 race? The candidates seem remarkably similar and I'm concerned that the Democrats are not running a strong campaign against Rossi, but since I no longer live there I'm curious what things are like on the ground.

I prefer Rittereiser but both him and Schrier are probably about even. The national environment makes this a Tossup ImO, Rossi is really strong


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: wesmoorenerd on July 01, 2018, 06:05:31 AM
Does anyone have any updates on the WA-8 race? The candidates seem remarkably similar and I'm concerned that the Democrats are not running a strong campaign against Rossi, but since I no longer live there I'm curious what things are like on the ground.

I prefer Rittereiser but both him and Schrier are probably about even. The national environment makes this a Tossup ImO, Rossi is really strong

Yeah, it's bizarre. Rossi is one of the few serious recruiting bright spots for Republicans this cycle, which says a lot considering his electoral history isn't all that superb. Rittereiser's probably my top pick but at the same time he's probably the weakest GE candidate. Schrier and Hader would both be pretty good as well however. Ultimately, I bet Schrier makes the GE.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 01, 2018, 08:35:42 AM
Does anyone have any updates on the WA-8 race? The candidates seem remarkably similar and I'm concerned that the Democrats are not running a strong campaign against Rossi, but since I no longer live there I'm curious what things are like on the ground.

I prefer Rittereiser but both him and Schrier are probably about even. The national environment makes this a Tossup ImO, Rossi is really strong

Yeah, it's bizarre. Rossi is one of the few serious recruiting bright spots for Republicans this cycle, which says a lot considering his electoral history isn't all that superb. Rittereiser's probably my top pick but at the same time he's probably the weakest GE candidate. Schrier and Hader would both be pretty good as well however. Ultimately, I bet Schrier makes the GE.

Disagree - Rittereiser is the only candidate from East of the Cascades. Seeing as Rossi’s Home and base is in the part of the 8th Democrats need to run the score up in (Issaquah/Sammamish area) I think having someone who can eat into reflexively GOP areas in Kittitas and Chelan is important


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 23, 2018, 10:33:08 AM
Just sent in my ballot - voted for all the Democrat incumbents. Nothing exciting going on this year in my neck of the woods


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on July 23, 2018, 08:05:24 PM
Wtf is wrong with some of the og suburban whites in Burien??
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/attack-on-burien-mayor-over-citys-sanctuary-city-policy-investigated-as-hate-crime/ (https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/attack-on-burien-mayor-over-citys-sanctuary-city-policy-investigated-as-hate-crime/)

It was very satisfying to see all the cretin MAGA challengers and incumbents defeated last November, but it’s disgusting to see continued anti-Latinx behavior from members of the Burien community.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 23, 2018, 09:12:33 PM
Wtf is wrong with some of the og suburban whites in Burien??
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/attack-on-burien-mayor-over-citys-sanctuary-city-policy-investigated-as-hate-crime/ (https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/attack-on-burien-mayor-over-citys-sanctuary-city-policy-investigated-as-hate-crime/)

It was very satisfying to see all the cretin MAGA challengers and incumbents defeated last November, but it’s disgusting to see continued anti-Latinx behavior from members of the Burien community.

That’s really too bad. Burien is probably the most successful inner suburb in revitalizing the last few years, too. My in-laws love going there (and they’re very conservative)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on July 23, 2018, 11:54:26 PM
Just sent in my ballot - voted for all the Democrat incumbents. Nothing exciting going on this year in my neck of the woods

Same here.  When you live in a LD in the heart of Seattle there are never competitive races.

That said, the sheer number of candidates running for Senate is phenomenal. 29 in total if I counted correctly.

First year where ballot postage is prepaid (i.e. no stamp required).  It is just so convenient that Kim Wyman supports this idea but just happens to think it would be more feasible to implement once it is an off-year election.

Seattle Times honest to god endorsed Rodney Tom for the primary in the State Senate primary for the 48th LD.   Because the past divided government was so successful...   I am hoping that Paddy (D) can hold him off.  Third independent candidate in that race is a one-issue candidate that opposes light rail building to the Eastside. Can assume that most of his voters would go to Tom in the general.

Are there any suburban Seattle pickup opportunities for Dems anywhere?

P.S. Went to Mason County this past weekend and Tim Sheldon signs everywhere.  Really had to resist the urge not to speed past them.

-


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on July 24, 2018, 12:10:21 AM
And strange... for a city that voted 70-30D in 2016 and is close to minority majority (if not already there?).

Anyway, I met Tina Podladowski (the Washington Dems chair) at a family friend’s fundraiser last week. I have to say I was very impressed. She seems to be very organized, dedicated, and has a great smart strategy to further state and congressional Ds.

She says envisions +2 in the senate (LD-26, LD-30) and +8 in the House (+2 in LD-5, LD-6, LD-19, LD-26, the suburban Vancouver one, the Auburn/Kent one, and O’Ban’s)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 24, 2018, 08:10:04 AM
Just sent in my ballot - voted for all the Democrat incumbents. Nothing exciting going on this year in my neck of the woods

Same here.  When you live in a LD in the heart of Seattle there are never competitive races.

That said, the sheer number of candidates running for Senate is phenomenal. 29 in total if I counted correctly.

First year where ballot postage is prepaid (i.e. no stamp required).  It is just so convenient that Kim Wyman supports this idea but just happens to think it would be more feasible to implement once it is an off-year election.

Seattle Times honest to god endorsed Rodney Tom for the primary in the State Senate primary for the 48th LD.   Because the past divided government was so successful...   I am hoping that Paddy (D) can hold him off.  Third independent candidate in that race is a one-issue candidate that opposes light rail building to the Eastside. Can assume that most of his voters would go to Tom in the general.

Are there any suburban Seattle pickup opportunities for Dems anywhere?

P.S. Went to Mason County this past weekend and Tim Sheldon signs everywhere.  Really had to resist the urge not to speed past them.

-

The main pickup opportunities in the Seattle area (at least for Senate) are defeating Miloscia or Fain, and also Angel’s open seat. Some good House opportunities too in Issaquah and Pyuallup

And strange... for a city that voted 70-30D in 2016 and is close to minority majority (if not already there?).

Anyway, I met Tina Podladowski (the Washington Dems chair) at a family friend’s fundraiser last week. I have to say I was very impressed. She seems to be very organized, dedicated, and has a great smart strategy to further state and congressional Ds.

She says envisions +2 in the senate (LD-26, LD-30) and +8 in the House (+2 in LD-5, LD-6, LD-19, LD-26, the suburban Vancouver one, the Auburn/Kent one, and O’Ban’s)

She’s been very impressive, IMO. I like her mantra of competing everywhere.

Surely she misspoke in leaving off the two House seats in the 25th, though?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on July 24, 2018, 10:07:28 AM
One of LD-25, not O’Ban’s. Whoops.
I think she’s kind of conservative in her House predictions. We very well could have a VA style wave. There are a lot of pickup opportunities.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 24, 2018, 11:08:30 AM
One of LD-25, not O’Ban’s. Whoops.
I think she’s kind of conservative in her House predictions. We very well could have a VA style wave. There are a lot of pickup opportunities.

Agreed. I think we take both 25th seats, for starters.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on July 27, 2018, 04:38:16 PM
111,358 ballots have already been returned in King County out of 1.3 million registered voters with 10 days left. Mailed my very boring (D) ballot yesterday. Still waiting for it to be processed.

I'm very interested to see how the paid postage boosts turnout. I don't remember what normal August midterm primary turnout is, but I'm going to guess we'll hit 45% turnout.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: UncleSam on July 27, 2018, 04:44:05 PM
Just filled out my King county ballot! Voted for Good Space Guy XD


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on July 27, 2018, 05:47:54 PM
Just filled out my King county ballot! Voted for Good Space Guy XD

You're a Washingtonian!?

I thought about Goodspaceguy or Rocky de la Fuente.... but couldn't pull the sh**tvoting trigger.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 28, 2018, 08:38:00 AM
Just filled out my King county ballot! Voted for Good Space Guy XD

You're a Washingtonian!?

I thought about Goodspaceguy or Rocky de la Fuente.... but couldn't pull the sh**tvoting trigger.

I was close to voting for that GOP woman whose candidate statement was about radio waves controlling people for the lulz but my wife talked me out of it


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: cwt on July 29, 2018, 03:23:14 PM
Ballot returns are lagging in Spokane County compared to 2014, despite the free postage and competitive House race.

12.15% of ballots have been returned, versus 14.35% at this point in 2014. In raw numbers, 38,062 have been returned, compared to 40,495 in 2014.

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2018/jul/29/spin-control-ballot-returns-lag-behind-2014-primar/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on July 29, 2018, 04:47:59 PM
I'm voting for Cathy McMorris Rogers for the first time this cycle. Really unimpressed by Lisa Brown, both from her town hall at WSU and for how things went down when she left WSU-Spokane.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on July 29, 2018, 04:57:22 PM
Ballot returns are lagging in Spokane County compared to 2014, despite the free postage and competitive House race.

12.15% of ballots have been returned, versus 14.35% at this point in 2014. In raw numbers, 38,062 have been returned, compared to 40,495 in 2014.

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2018/jul/29/spin-control-ballot-returns-lag-behind-2014-primar/

I was just there this weekend. Saw almost zero yard signs for anyone other than Dave Wilson.

Don’t want to infer too much from this, though. Primary night will be much more indicative


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on July 31, 2018, 08:20:44 PM
I've started keeping track of the King County early returns:
7/27: 111,358 - 8.68%
7/28: 113,922 - 8.80%
7/30: 146,183 - 11.39%
7/31: 177,536 - 13.83%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 07, 2018, 03:23:34 PM
I've started keeping track of the King County early returns:
7/27: 111,358 - 8.68%
7/27: 113,922 - 8.80%
7/30: 146,183 - 11.39%
7/31: 177,536 - 13.83%
To continue (no updates on weekends)

8/1: 198,570 - 15.47%
8/2: 220,799 - 17.00%
8/3: 241,548 - 18.82%
8/6: 286,361 - 22.31%
8/7: 351,465 - 27.38% (12PM update)

There will be a 6PM update, though ballots are collected at drop box locations until 8PM. And of course there will probably be around 100k that are not collected until after today.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 07, 2018, 03:34:52 PM
It’ll be interesting to see some numbers in Spokane and Walla Walla Countis re: WA-5, and how Rossi does in Issaquah and the rest of East King. Also I’m officially a little nervous about Patty Kiderer


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 08, 2018, 12:15:48 AM
lol Uncle Mover might make the general in my home CD. His voter guide spiel talks about aliens, FEMA camps, "Marshall Law", and Fort Knox gold.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 08, 2018, 02:06:55 AM
Well, these results are objectively terrible for legislative and congressional Rs....
I keep checking seats I had pegged as lean or tilt R... that Ds are pulling 50%+ of the vote against incumbents. Obviously the following is subject to change, considering the many votes left out there. The dynamic of partisanship and later returning ballots is still not greatly understood in WA. For some reason, unlike in CA, they're not nearly as homogeneously left or D leaning.

Since the congressional races are already getting plenty of attention, the LDs: The shockers are bolded.

LD-1 (Bothell): Safe D
LD-2.1(Rural Pierce/Thurston): 55R-45D, LD-2.2: Uncontested R
LD-3 (Spokane): Safe D
LD-4.1 (Spokane Valley): Shea (R) 54 - 46 Cummings (D), 4.2: Likely R

LD-5 (North Bend/Snoqualmie): Both Ramos and Callan (D) lead 54-46 over former rep Magendanz (R) and Graves (R) respectively. For perspective, Both Graves and Rodne lead ever so
slightly in the 2016 primary.

LD-6 (Spokane + burbs): !!!! Ds lead in all positions- Senate: Lewis (D) 51 - 49 Holy (R), 6.1: Murano (D) 53 - 47 Volz (R), 6.2: Combined Ds 54 - 46 Combined Rs

LD-7 (NE WA): Safe R
LD-8 (Richland/Kennewick): Safe R
LD-9 (SE WA): Safe R

LD-10 (Island Co + Stanwood): !!! 10.1: McMullen (D) 51 - 49 Smith (R). 10.2: Paul (D) 53.5 - 46.5 Hayes (R).

LD-11 (Tukwila/Renton): Uncontested Ds
LD-12 (Wenatchee/Chelan): Safe R
LD-13 (Ellensburg + Moses Lake): Senate: Uncontested R, the rest Safe R
LD-14 (Yakima Co./Klickitat): Safe R
LD-15 (Yakima): Safe R
LD-16 (Walla Walla + Pasco): Safe R

LD-17 (Suburban Vancouver): 17.1: Tanisha (D) + minor D 51.5 - 48.5 Kraft (R), 17.2: Harris (R) 54 - 46 Jiles, Sr. (D).

LD-18 (Exurban Vancouver/Clark Co.): Ds did weirdly better here than in LD-17- 18.1: Vick (R) 50.5 - 49.5 Thobaben (D) and 18.2: Gillespie (D) 53.5 - 46.5 Hoff (R).

LD-19 (SW WA, ancestral D country): 19.1: Frasier (D) 51.5 - 48.5 Walsh (R), 19.2: Safe D

LD-20 (Lewis Co): Safe R
LD-21 (Edmonds/Mukilteo): Safe D
LD-22 (Olympia): Safe D
LD-23 (Bainbridge Island + Bremerton): Safe and Uncontested D
LD-24 (Olympic Peninsula): Safe D

LD-25 (Puyallup): In 25.1: the combined Ds 53 - 47 Combined Rs, with Jamie Smith 27%) barely ahead of Julie Door (26%) for the second position, 25.2 features Duthie (D) 46.5 - 46 Gildon (R) - 7.5 Witting ("Independent To Party"

LD-26 (Port Orchard/Gig Harbor): Senate: Randall (D) 51 - 45 McClendon (R) - 4 Scheidler (I), 26.1: FitzPatrick (D) 50.5 - 49.5 Combined Rs, 26.2: Combined Rs 51 - 44 Stanford (D) - 5 Padilla ("People over Party")

LD-27 (Tacoma): Safe D

LD-28 (Lakewood/JBLM): 28.1: Leavitt (D) 53 - 47 Muri (R), similar to LD-5, Muri led barely in the 2016 primary... not a good sign for him. 28.2: Kilduff (D) is sitting 59-41 right now, Safe D

LD-29 (South Tacoma/Parkland): Safe or Uncontested D. David Sawyer, the pariah incumbent D in 29.1, who is accused of sexually assaulting multiple women, is in third right now by 1%. Hopefully he stays there.

LD-30 (Federal Way): Senate: Combined Ds 51.5 - 48.5 Miloscia (R), In 30.1 & 30.2, "vulnerable" D incumbents Pellicciotti and Reeves are destroying, 58-42 and 62.5-37.5 (!) respectively.

LD-31 (Rural Pierce + King Cos.): All race Likely R

LD-32 (Shoreline/Lynwood): Senate: safely D vs D, 32.1 is Safe D and 32.2 is currently just 4 votes away from being D vs D.

LD-33 (Burien/Kent): Safe or Uncontested D
LD-34 (West Seattle + Vashon Island): Senate is D vs D (Nguyen and Shannon Braddock, who in 2015 almost won a city council seat against Lisa Herbold), the rest are uncontested D.

LD-35 (Mason Co.): In the Senate re-match: Bowling (D) 39 - 35 Sheldon (DINO) - 26 Combined Rs, 35.1: Griffey (R) 51.5 - 48.5 Thomas (D), 35.2: Daggett (D) 52 - 48 MacEwen (R).

LD-36 (Ballard + Queen Anne): Super Safe D
LD-37 (Central District + SE Seattle): Super Safe D
LD-38 (Everett): Senate is currently D vs D (McCoy and Overstreet), with the R behind by .75%, the rest are Safe or Uncontested D

LD-39 (Rural Snohomish/Skagit/Whatcom): Senate race is a mess: Combined Rs 55 - 40.5 Joens (D) - 5 Rabieh (I). Keith Wagoner (R), the appointed incumbent is beating Elizabeth Scott (R), the position 2 incumbent by about 3%, 39.1: Combined Rs 51.5 - 48.5 Lewis (D), 39.2: Eslick (R) 52 - 48 Halvorson (D).

LD-40 (Bellingham/Anacortes/Mt Vernon/San Juans): There's a clown car in 40.1, with the potential for D vs D, the third place D is 1% behind the second place R. no one has more than 28%! 40.2 is Uncontested D.
LD-41 (Bellevue/Mercer Island): 41.1 is Safe D, 41.2 is D vs D (Weiker and Thai).

LD-42 (Whatcom Co.): !!!! Senate: Combined Ds 54 - 46 Ericksen (R), 42.1: Boneau (D) 51 - 49 combined Rs, 42.2: Shewmake (D) 52.5 - 47.5 Buys (R).

LD-43 (Wallingford + Capitol Hill): Super Safe D

LD-44 (Mill Creek/Snohomish): Senate: Safe D, Hobbs (D) leads 57 - 40 (R) -3 (L), 44.1: Safe D, Lovick leads 59-41, 44.2: Lean D, Mead (D) 55 - 45 Harmsworth (R), another R incumbent in poor shape...

LD-45 (Kirkland/Woodinville/Sammamish): Safe D, Manka has this on lockdown already
LD-46 (NE Seattle): Super Safe D

LD-47 (Auburn/Kent/Maple Valley): Perhaps the last Seattle area R in the Senate: Fain (R) 54 - 46 Das (D), 47.1: Hargrove (R) 50 - 47.5 Entenmen (D) - 2.5 Dillon (I). 47.2: Safe D, Sullivan (D) 58 - 42 Combined Rs.

LD-48 (Bellevue/Kirkland): Senate: Kuderer (D) 59 - 30 Rodney (DINO), the rest are Safe or Uncontested D
LD-49 (Vancouver): Uncontested D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Virginiá on August 08, 2018, 02:22:46 AM
Damn, I totally forgot about Washington state (sorry KingSweden and friends :[). Democrats seem to have a very good shot at CD-3 and CD-5 in addition to CD-8! I figured we might have a shot in one of them but if these results hold or get better even, the general election seems poised to be good to WA Democrats.

Well, these results are objectively terrible for legislative and congressional Rs....
I keep checking seats I had pegged as lean or tilt R... that Ds are pulling 50%+ of the vote against incumbents. Obviously the following is subject to change, considering the many votes left out there. The dynamic of partisanship and later returning ballots is still not greatly understood in WA. For some reason, unlike in CA, they're not nearly as homogeneously left or D leaning.

[...]

I gotta get to bed so I can't look that list over, but assuming there are no major changes in the vote totals, what kind of projection would you give Democrats for gains in the legislature in November?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 08, 2018, 02:49:13 AM
Right now, just counting Ds that lead in R held seats (excluding Tim Sheldon), Ds would gain 17(!) in the house and 4 in the Senate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: 136or142 on August 08, 2018, 03:00:31 AM
lol Uncle Mover might make the general in my home CD. His voter guide spiel talks about aliens, FEMA camps, "Marshall Law", and Fort Knox gold.

He should be a guest on Coast to Coast AM.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 09, 2018, 06:44:40 PM
It looks like both WA-2 and WA-9 will be D vs D contests. Sarah Smith has pulled ahead (which is impressive, considering she was down by around 3% yesterday). The D in WA-2 has led since yesterday, but it's rather tenuous. I think it'll grow though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on August 17, 2018, 08:49:13 AM
I wonder if Frank Chopp would retire if Ds get a 67-31 majority. A lot of those freshman might want some fresh blood


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on September 22, 2018, 12:50:54 PM
(bump)

So now that it’s been a month anyone got any predictions/thoughts?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on September 24, 2018, 01:37:33 PM
(bump)

So now that it’s been a month anyone got any predictions/thoughts?

Haven't heard too much lately. I plan to canvas/phonebank for legislative races and WA-08 in October, so maybe I'll hear something there.

I tagged along with my mom to a fundraiser for Inslee (at Brady Walkinshaw's grandma's house) earlier this month.

I think he'd like to run for president, but knows that he's got a very slim chance of going anywhere. I wouldn't be surprised if he instead runs for a third term. Which would definitely delay the eventual Constantine - Ferguson primary battle.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Virginiá on September 27, 2018, 09:27:28 PM
Republican incumbent Senator in LD-47 (Joe Fain) accused of rape:



54% - 38% Clinton
55% - 42% Obama


How did the primary go for Fain? I'm not sure what he used to get, but the end result seemed like a pretty sturdy win for such a Democratic district (at the presidential level anyway).

Edit: Ok so Fain's primary result from 2014 was a blowout (66%), and he only got 54% this year - a substantial reduction. This accusation will not help, that's for sure.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Virginiá on September 27, 2018, 10:08:13 PM
@KingSweden or anyone else knowledgeable about WA: Why is LD-47 even still electing Republicans, and not just electing, but by blowout margins? I could understand if the district was a little less Democratic at the presidential level and if the Republicans won by smaller margins, but this guy has really been running the table up until now.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on September 27, 2018, 10:19:03 PM
Fain has a pretty moderate voting record for somebody in leadership and his brother is a popular sports radio show host. Also the Kent Valley area can be kind of swingy downballot


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on September 28, 2018, 08:49:15 PM
Fain is the most moderate Senate R, so it’s no surprise he’s been able to hang on and build a suburban-friendly profile. He did decently well in the primary. But I just find it tough to see how he can survive a Trump, D+10 midterm. Mona Das, his opponent isn’t bad either.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on September 29, 2018, 08:49:30 AM
Here’s the Seattle Times article with more details:
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/woman-says-washington-state-sen-joe-fain-raped-her-in-2007-fain-denies-allegation/ (https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/woman-says-washington-state-sen-joe-fain-raped-her-in-2007-fain-denies-allegation/)

Fain is calling for an investigation, as are other prominent R senators.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alaska2392 on October 18, 2018, 09:48:58 PM
https://crosscut.com/2018/10/statewide-ban-soda-and-food-taxes-down-20-points-poll-finds

If Elway Polling is to be believed I-1634 (which would stop local governments from enacting taxes on food/drink) is down 51% (no) - 31% (yes) with 18% undecided.

A "yes" vote would put the ban into place.  A "no" vote and the initiative would not be enacted.

Interestingly, Elway finds that it is REPUBLICANS who are most willing to vote "No" on this initiative by a margin of 58% (no) - 28% (yes) with the remainder undecided.

Either Republicans don't like control taken away from local governments...  or, far more likely, Republicans are confused and think this is a vote on enacting a tax with a vote of "YES" putting the tax in place and a vote of "NO" meaning that the tax won't become law.

I hope either Elway did a bad poll or that Republicans read their ballots/voters pamphlet.  I would die if Adams county was like 65% NO on this initiative because no one can understand it.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: IceSpear on October 20, 2018, 06:02:30 AM
If Elway Polling is to be believed

Stopped reading there, lol.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 20, 2018, 11:23:52 PM
Voted "no" on all the initiatives.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 23, 2018, 11:00:50 PM
So it doesn't get lost in the early vote thread:
Quote
The WA big 5 as of 10/23 (except for Snohomish, which reports in the morning the previous day's totals):
                  Ballots:   Turnout:
King:           52,776   4.09%
Pierce:         27,133   5.52%
Snohomish:  17,140   3.68% (9/22)
Spokane:     32,297   10.09% (wowza!)
Clark:          17,898   6.36%

I still haven't voted! Oops! Will probably do so on Saturday.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 30, 2018, 10:57:08 AM
Finally voted last night. Wow, never have I seen so many unopposed judge positions... 16/17.
Straight D ticket, Yes on all but the Sugar Tax prohibition.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on October 31, 2018, 02:18:47 PM
Saw on DKE that Spokane is now at 34% turnout - is that true? Absolutely wild what’s going on out there


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 01, 2018, 11:49:44 AM
Saw on DKE that Spokane is now at 34% turnout - is that true? Absolutely wild what’s going on out there

Higher actually, as of 10/31: 118,061   36.87%!
Stunning turnout. I can't see how this is good for CMR, she's not exactly a get-me-to-the-polls inspiring kind of person (not saying it's good for Brown either, but I feel like the downside lies with CMR).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 01, 2018, 12:04:12 PM
Saw on DKE that Spokane is now at 34% turnout - is that true? Absolutely wild what’s going on out there

Spokane turnout is high (at least in the suburbs), but it's not even the highest in WA-05. Lincoln County is the highest in the state, and Pend Oreille and Garfield are also above Spokane County.

Meanwhile, turnout in Walla Walla and Whitman is in the toilet so far (granted, WSU students always vote at the last minute).

I posted this yesterday:

A mixed county/LD turnout map:

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 01, 2018, 12:23:13 PM
Saw on DKE that Spokane is now at 34% turnout - is that true? Absolutely wild what’s going on out there

Higher actually, as of 10/31: 118,061   36.87%!
Stunning turnout. I can't see how this is good for CMR, she's not exactly a get-me-to-the-polls inspiring kind of person (not saying it's good for Brown either, but I feel like the downside lies with CMR).

I mean I think it’s best for the three Democrats in LD-6. Probably good for Brown, but as RI demonstrates below, Whitman and WW aren’t doing great and Brown needs high turnout plus a decent margin in both


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 07, 2018, 12:31:02 PM
Looks like the carbon tax failed while the other initiatives passed (always count on WA to vote down big taxes). Spokane County appears to have actually voted for Cathy McMoRo. Dino, unsurprisingly, went down in flames while JHB likely survives.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 07, 2018, 01:17:55 PM
Dems need to park a dump truck of cash at Vancouver Mayor Tim Leavitt’s House for next cycle. JHB is beatable.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 07, 2018, 05:23:17 PM
A quick legislative rundown.
Looks like the GOP may have averted a complete disaster, but they're on track to lose seats in both the senate and house. There are a lot of very close races and considering that there's likely still a good 20% of the vote left to count, more substantial gains could occur.

LD-5: +2
Both Ds lead, Bill Ramos (52.5) to Chad Magendanz (47.5) and Lisa Callan (53) to Paul Graves, incumbent (47)

LD-6: +0/+1
All Rs currently lead. Jeff Holy (R), senate, is probably safe. Mike Volz (R) leads Kay Murano (D) 53-47, Jenny Graham (R) leads Dave Wilson (D) 50.3-49.7, which could be a potential flip)

LD-10: +0 to +2
Norma Smith (R) leads Scott McMullen (D) 52.5-47.5. Dave Paul (D) leads Dave Hayes (R) 50.3-49.7.

LD-17: +0/+1, definitely a disappointing result for Ds
Both Rs lead. Vicki Kraft (R) leads Tanisha Harris (D) 50.6-49.4. Paul Harris (R) is safe.

LD-18: +0/+1
All Rs in the lead. Larry Hoff (R) leads Kathy Gillespie 52-48. Brandon Vick (R) leads Chris Thobaben (D) 55-45.

LD-19: +0/+1, Demosaurs on the decline, but not dead.
Both incumbents lead. Jim Walsh (R) leads Erin Frasier (D) 50.7-49.3. Brian Blake (D) leads Joel McEntire (R) 54-46.

LD-25: +0 to +2, another disappointing suburban result
Both Rs lead. Kelly Chambers (R) over Jamie Smith (D) 52.5-47.5. Chris Gildon (R) over Brian Duthie (D) 53-47.

LD-26: +0/+1 senate, +0/+1 house
In the senate race, Emily Randall (D) leads Marty McClendon (R) 50.6-49.4. Jesse Young (R) leads Connie FitzPatrick 51-49. Michelle Caldier (R) leads Joy Stanford (D) 54-46.

LD-28: +1
Both Ds lead. Mari Leavitt (D) ahead of incumbent Dick Muri (R) 51.5-48.5. Christine Kilduff (D) killing it over Maia Espinoza (R) 56.5-44.5.

LD-30: +1 senate
And Miloscia bites dust. Claire Wilson (D) leads Mark Miloscia (R) 53-47. The house Ds are both getting over 60%. This district is going the way of LD-45 (Dhingra).

LD-35: +0/+1 house
Looks like infamous Tim Sheldon (DR) will eek out a second win over Irene Bowling (D) 52.5-47.5. Dan Griffey (R) looks safe. Drew MacEwen (R) leads David Daggett (D) 51.5-48.5.

LD-42: +0/1 senate, +0 to +2 house
Super tight results all around. Incumbent Doug Ericksen (R) leads Pinky Vargas (D) 50.4-49.6. Incumbent Luanne Van Werven (R) leads Justin Boneau (D) 50.7-49.3. Sharon Shewmake (D) is leading incumbent Vincent Buys (R) 50.1-49.9.

LD-44: +1 house
Steve Hobbs (D) senate and John Lovick (D) house are cruising to reelection. Jared Mead (D) is unseating incumbent Mark Harmsworth (R) 52-48.

LD-47: +0/1 senate, +1 house
Joe Fain (R), senate incumbent is leading Mona Das (D) 50.3-49.7 right now. There are 12k+ ballots left to count in this district. I'd rather be Das. Looks like Debra Entenman (D) will unseat Mark Hargrove (R) 52.5-47.5. Pat Sullivan (D) is getting over 60%.

Ds are currently +7 in the house and +2 in the senate. But that could extend to +18 and +4 if late returns are D favoring.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 07, 2018, 06:15:09 PM
When’s the next ballot drop?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 07, 2018, 06:40:46 PM

Between 4-6 today for most counties.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 07, 2018, 06:52:30 PM

Looking forward to updates... pre-election i predicted +10 House and +3 Senate


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 07, 2018, 11:22:32 PM
Well there are at least 732k worth of votes left to be counted... Probably more like 800k with ballots yet to arrive.

To update the legislative races. Nothing has flipped from the initial vote dump.
However, I think Fain loses. His lead is down to 90 votes (10k ballots left for counting). Similarly, Ericksen leads by just 122 votes, while Sharon Shewmake's (D) lead grew and Luanne Van Werven's (R) shrank to 261. However, I just checked and there are only 3k ballots left to count in Whatcom :/ So perhaps the Rs hang on?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 08, 2018, 01:16:23 PM
I’m a bit concerned about Emily Randall holding on in LD-26, TBH.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 09, 2018, 12:04:10 PM
Today’s update.

Randall holding firm with a 400 vote lead

Erickson lead up to 200... don’t think this one’s happening

Fain now trails by 200

So if results hold, D+3 in the Senate


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 09, 2018, 04:07:45 PM
Was sad to read in the Seattle Times today that Councilman Rob Johnson will not seek reelection. Easily the best member of the CC on urban issues, very sad to see.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 10, 2018, 02:29:48 PM
As I feared, Emily Randall now trailing in the 26th - yuuuge dump for McClendon.

I’m happy Report that Erickson now only leads by 70 votes and Fain keeps falling further behind


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 14, 2018, 01:11:09 PM
Randall probably loses, unfortunately.
There are 2,700 ballots left to count in Kitsap and 3,000 in Pierce. So, that's what, like max 500 ballots between them? She'd have to win the remaining hypothetical ballots by 57.6% (75 votes) to scrape by and likely more, since there's probably fewer than 500 remaining.

Skagit county still has 20,000 ballots left to process (why???), so the tenuous lead Dave Paul (D) has over Dave Hayes (R) could change.

Ericksen (R) will almost certainly win, by 72 votes, or .1% since there's only 34 ballots left in Whatcom, and we're past the point of significant late returns. What's the recount rule in WA? Not that it'll change the outcome.

Not a disappointing night for WA Dems, but there were so many close races (3% or less) and a few notable suburban districts they failed to flip: LD 6 (Spokane suburbs), LD 17 (suburban Vancouver), LD 25 (Puyallup), LD 26 (Kitsap + Gig Harbor), and LD 42 (where they gained a house seat, but missed the above senate seat and other house seat by less than .1% and .18%).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 15, 2018, 12:45:51 AM
ermagerd

Randall has clawed her way back into a lead by 12 votes!!
She leads 34,279 to 34,267.

1,800 votes left in Kitsap, 1,500 in Pierce. So that means probably around 150-200 ballots left to count here?

Skagit dumped 5,000 votes (15k remain). Dave Paul (D) gains on Dave Hayes (R) and now leads 50.34-49.66, or 456 votes.

Despite only reporting "34" ballots on hand yesterday, Ericksen's lead has narrowed from 72 to 58. Whatcom only list 1 ballot left to count... but that's probably not accurate. So, who knows, maybe there's enough out there to get that close enough to recount-win territory (I'm sure this will go to a recount, but 58 is a pretty big margin to overcome).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 15, 2018, 01:38:13 PM
I’m fine with +2/3 in the Senate, but only going +7 in the House with so much low hanging fruit is kinda disappointing. I know Podlodowski is digging WADems out of a hole outside of the King/Snoho core but still


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Virginiá on November 15, 2018, 01:41:03 PM
I’m fine with +2/3 in the Senate, but only going +7 in the House with so much low hanging fruit is kinda disappointing. I know Podlodowski is digging WADems out of a hole outside of the King/Snoho core but still

It did seem like it would be better in the primaries.

There's always another shot to deepen the state House/US House ranks in 2020 though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 15, 2018, 03:59:54 PM
I’m fine with +2/3 in the Senate, but only going +7 in the House with so much low hanging fruit is kinda disappointing. I know Podlodowski is digging WADems out of a hole outside of the King/Snoho core but still

It did seem like it would be better in the primaries.

There's always another shot to deepen the state House/US House ranks in 2020 though.

A *lot* of these races were knife’s edge in the primary. And we’re winning one that didn’t look close at the time (Fain).



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 15, 2018, 04:08:30 PM
Whipped up a quick map of where pickups stand in the House.

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 15, 2018, 05:16:23 PM
Polarization: a map

(I’m a bit concerned about the 19th in 2020 tbh)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 15, 2018, 08:37:06 PM
Emily Randal netted 76 votes tonight, now leads by 88



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 15, 2018, 10:09:56 PM
500 ballots left in Kitsap, 1,300 in Pierce.
She probably pulls out the win.

Whatcom won't report again until the 24th, so any super late ballots/reconciled rejected ballots will be counted by then. Idk how much of a bump that'll end up being, but it could potentially change the result in LD-42 (Ericksen +58, Van Werven +95).

Dave Paul looks to have secured a win in the 10th. No other races are close enough to be impacted by what's remaining.
But ugh, both D house candidates in the 25th came just short - it reminds me of LD-5 in 2016. While Trump won the 25th in 2016, I think he'll probably lose it come 2020, hopefully Podladowski and co can expand the map here.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 15, 2018, 10:51:45 PM
Especially since the 25th will have a Senate race too. I hope somebody is researching what’s gone wrong in the last five years in Puyallup, can’t afford any suburban attrition


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on November 16, 2018, 12:32:50 AM
Polarization: a map

(I’m a bit concerned about the 19th in 2020 tbh)

With Hill dead and Fain losing - no Republican from King county at all? Sad. I was never fond about one party dictatorships.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 16, 2018, 12:51:31 AM
Not quite, LD-31 is half in rural southern King, and a sliver of LD-39 takes the village of Skykomish in the rural north (though that's actually the most D part of that district).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on November 16, 2018, 01:28:56 AM
Not quite, LD-31 is half in rural southern King, and a sliver of LD-39 takes the village of Skykomish in the rural north (though that's actually the most D part of that district).

Thanks. King county supplied good moderate Republicans in the past (Litzow, Hill, Fain, and before - there were even reasonable Republican members of Seattle city council), the last being David Satterberg, so (pure IMHO, of course) it wouldn't be bad for this tradition to continue...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 16, 2018, 09:14:27 AM
Those moderate Repubs did themselves no favors by joining EWA conservatives in their various escapades, though, and forgetting often that they represented King County and not Moses Lake


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on November 16, 2018, 10:02:26 AM
Those moderate Repubs did themselves no favors by joining EWA conservatives in their various escapades, though, and forgetting often that they represented King County and not Moses Lake

Well, i still like Litzow and Hill (slightly less - Fain). And absolutely opposed to 1-party rule everywhere, Democratic as well as Republican.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: KingSweden on November 16, 2018, 10:13:31 AM
Those moderate Repubs did themselves no favors by joining EWA conservatives in their various escapades, though, and forgetting often that they represented King County and not Moses Lake

Well, i still like Litzow and Hill (slightly less - Fain). And absolutely opposed to 1-party rule everywhere, Democratic as well as Republican.

I liked Litzow just fine, he seemed like a good man, but you gotta vote your district before you can vote your party


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on November 16, 2018, 10:20:47 AM
Those moderate Repubs did themselves no favors by joining EWA conservatives in their various escapades, though, and forgetting often that they represented King County and not Moses Lake

Well, i still like Litzow and Hill (slightly less - Fain). And absolutely opposed to 1-party rule everywhere, Democratic as well as Republican.

I liked Litzow just fine, he seemed like a good man, but you gotta vote your district before you can vote your party

Sure. District rules))) But, IIRC, Litzow was at least slightly left-of-center. May be with time that became too little for his district..


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 27, 2018, 01:34:06 PM
LD-42 Senate and Position 1, as well as LD-26 Senate will be manually recounted.
All other races will be finalized tonight and I'll hopefully get a map out of some state LD races (actually this time!!!)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: IceSpear on November 27, 2018, 04:47:10 PM
How come Cantwell underperformed so badly? It seems odd she only did 2 points better than Hillary, especially against a sacrificial lamb like Hutchison.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 27, 2018, 06:53:43 PM
Huge news: Frank Chopp, Dem Speaker of the House will step down from his leadership role at the end of the 2019 session and I’m guessing will likely retire come 2020.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-house-speaker-frank-chopp-plans-to-step-down-from-leadership-role-at-end-of-2019-session/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Calthrina950 on November 27, 2018, 10:54:24 PM
How come Cantwell underperformed so badly? It seems odd she only did 2 points better than Hillary, especially against a sacrificial lamb like Hutchison.

Polarization, as you yourself have said, and as I've pointed out elsewhere. She, Carper, and Feinstein all failed to clear 60%, like they had back in 2012. Chris Murphy in Connecticut fell short of that mark as well.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on November 28, 2018, 12:30:47 AM
How come Cantwell underperformed so badly? It seems odd she only did 2 points better than Hillary, especially against a sacrificial lamb like Hutchison.

Polarization, as you yourself have said, and as I've pointed out elsewhere. She, Carper, and Feinstein all failed to clear 60%, like they had back in 2012. Chris Murphy in Connecticut fell short of that mark as well.

+100. That's why i say, that observing US elections became simply not interesting. No intrigue. Both in ideological positions of candidates, and results (with rarest exceptions). As "538" formulated: "it's all polarized, predictable and boring"....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Dr. Arch on November 28, 2018, 12:37:57 AM
How come Cantwell underperformed so badly? It seems odd she only did 2 points better than Hillary, especially against a sacrificial lamb like Hutchison.

Polarization, as you yourself have said, and as I've pointed out elsewhere. She, Carper, and Feinstein all failed to clear 60%, like they had back in 2012. Chris Murphy in Connecticut fell short of that mark as well.

I mean, Feinstein was facing another Democrat, so that end of the comparison is not exactly parallel to the rest.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Calthrina950 on November 28, 2018, 02:02:07 AM
How come Cantwell underperformed so badly? It seems odd she only did 2 points better than Hillary, especially against a sacrificial lamb like Hutchison.

Polarization, as you yourself have said, and as I've pointed out elsewhere. She, Carper, and Feinstein all failed to clear 60%, like they had back in 2012. Chris Murphy in Connecticut fell short of that mark as well.

I mean, Feinstein was facing another Democrat, so that end of the comparison is not exactly parallel to the rest.

That is true, but De Leon was the de facto Republican in this year's senate race in California. Heavily Republican Lassen and Modoc Counties gave him more than 70% of the vote, and he won all of the other Republican counties in Central and Northern California. Yes, there was a turnout differential in those counties between the Senatorial and Gubernatorial races, but that doesn't change the fact that most Republicans who voted in the Senate race did so for De Leon. Feinstein's numbers also were down considerably in the Bay Area and Los Angeles County from what she got in 2012.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on November 28, 2018, 04:03:16 AM
How come Cantwell underperformed so badly? It seems odd she only did 2 points better than Hillary, especially against a sacrificial lamb like Hutchison.

Polarization, as you yourself have said, and as I've pointed out elsewhere. She, Carper, and Feinstein all failed to clear 60%, like they had back in 2012. Chris Murphy in Connecticut fell short of that mark as well.

I mean, Feinstein was facing another Democrat, so that end of the comparison is not exactly parallel to the rest.

That is true, but De Leon was the de facto Republican in this year's senate race in California. Heavily Republican Lassen and Modoc Counties gave him more than 70% of the vote, and he won all of the other Republican counties in Central and Northern California. Yes, there was a turnout differential in those counties between the Senatorial and Gubernatorial races, but that doesn't change the fact that most Republicans who voted in the Senate race did so for De Leon. Feinstein's numbers also were down considerably in the Bay Area and Los Angeles County from what she got in 2012.

Lassen and Modoc are SO liberal? Or - De Leon is SO conservative?)))))))))))))))))


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Calthrina950 on November 28, 2018, 04:14:48 AM
How come Cantwell underperformed so badly? It seems odd she only did 2 points better than Hillary, especially against a sacrificial lamb like Hutchison.

Polarization, as you yourself have said, and as I've pointed out elsewhere. She, Carper, and Feinstein all failed to clear 60%, like they had back in 2012. Chris Murphy in Connecticut fell short of that mark as well.

I mean, Feinstein was facing another Democrat, so that end of the comparison is not exactly parallel to the rest.

That is true, but De Leon was the de facto Republican in this year's senate race in California. Heavily Republican Lassen and Modoc Counties gave him more than 70% of the vote, and he won all of the other Republican counties in Central and Northern California. Yes, there was a turnout differential in those counties between the Senatorial and Gubernatorial races, but that doesn't change the fact that most Republicans who voted in the Senate race did so for De Leon. Feinstein's numbers also were down considerably in the Bay Area and Los Angeles County from what she got in 2012.

Lassen and Modoc are SO liberal? Or - De Leon is SO conservative?)))))))))))))))))

What do you mean? The reason why Lassen and Modoc voted so strongly for De Leon is because they were casting a protest vote against Feinstein, and had no other option but him on the ballot. He was the "non-incumbent" candidate, and in spite of his liberal views, was someone "other" than Feinstein. That was good enough for them.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on November 28, 2018, 04:44:49 AM
How come Cantwell underperformed so badly? It seems odd she only did 2 points better than Hillary, especially against a sacrificial lamb like Hutchison.

Polarization, as you yourself have said, and as I've pointed out elsewhere. She, Carper, and Feinstein all failed to clear 60%, like they had back in 2012. Chris Murphy in Connecticut fell short of that mark as well.

I mean, Feinstein was facing another Democrat, so that end of the comparison is not exactly parallel to the rest.

That is true, but De Leon was the de facto Republican in this year's senate race in California. Heavily Republican Lassen and Modoc Counties gave him more than 70% of the vote, and he won all of the other Republican counties in Central and Northern California. Yes, there was a turnout differential in those counties between the Senatorial and Gubernatorial races, but that doesn't change the fact that most Republicans who voted in the Senate race did so for De Leon. Feinstein's numbers also were down considerably in the Bay Area and Los Angeles County from what she got in 2012.

Lassen and Modoc are SO liberal? Or - De Leon is SO conservative?)))))))))))))))))

What do you mean? The reason why Lassen and Modoc voted so strongly for De Leon is because they were casting a protest vote against Feinstein, and had no other option but him on the ballot. He was the "non-incumbent" candidate, and in spite of his liberal views, was someone "other" than Feinstein. That was good enough for them.

Obviously, it was a sarcasm.....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 28, 2018, 02:44:51 PM
How come Cantwell underperformed so badly? It seems odd she only did 2 points better than Hillary, especially against a sacrificial lamb like Hutchison.

Polarization, as you yourself have said, and as I've pointed out elsewhere. She, Carper, and Feinstein all failed to clear 60%, like they had back in 2012. Chris Murphy in Connecticut fell short of that mark as well.
What's interesting is that she actually did worse than Murray in 2016 too. Specifically in Pierce County.
But the answer is absolutely polarization. She tanked in SW Washington and did decidedly poorly in Eastern Washington apart from Spokane/Whitman/Walla Walla.

Another thing. Turnout was 94.6% of 2016 senate race and 99.5% of 2012 senate race.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Calthrina950 on November 28, 2018, 03:52:00 PM
How come Cantwell underperformed so badly? It seems odd she only did 2 points better than Hillary, especially against a sacrificial lamb like Hutchison.

Polarization, as you yourself have said, and as I've pointed out elsewhere. She, Carper, and Feinstein all failed to clear 60%, like they had back in 2012. Chris Murphy in Connecticut fell short of that mark as well.
What's interesting is that she actually did worse than Murray in 2016 too. Specifically in Pierce County.
But the answer is absolutely polarization. She tanked in SW Washington and did decidedly poorly in Eastern Washington apart from Spokane/Whitman/Walla Walla.

Another thing. Turnout was 94.6% of 2016 senate race and 99.5% of 2012 senate race.

That is something. How she managed to do worse than Murray, in such a favorable environment, is beyond me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Tintrlvr on November 28, 2018, 06:01:24 PM
How come Cantwell underperformed so badly? It seems odd she only did 2 points better than Hillary, especially against a sacrificial lamb like Hutchison.

Polarization, as you yourself have said, and as I've pointed out elsewhere. She, Carper, and Feinstein all failed to clear 60%, like they had back in 2012. Chris Murphy in Connecticut fell short of that mark as well.

I mean, Feinstein was facing another Democrat, so that end of the comparison is not exactly parallel to the rest.

That is true, but De Leon was the de facto Republican in this year's senate race in California. Heavily Republican Lassen and Modoc Counties gave him more than 70% of the vote, and he won all of the other Republican counties in Central and Northern California. Yes, there was a turnout differential in those counties between the Senatorial and Gubernatorial races, but that doesn't change the fact that most Republicans who voted in the Senate race did so for De Leon. Feinstein's numbers also were down considerably in the Bay Area and Los Angeles County from what she got in 2012.

Yeah, but no Republican in existence today would have gotten 42% of the vote in Alameda County or Los Angeles County or 36% of the vote in San Francisco. De Leon's overperformance compared to a Republican in liberal areas is why Feinstein did relatively poorly statewide, not his strength in conservative areas, which was not much different from a typical Republican, and thus his strong performance overall is attributable entirely to him being a liberal Democrat rather than a Republican (and therefore doesn't reflect any weakness on Feinstein, at least to the right).

I also expect that if voters thought the Feinstein-de Leon race would be relatively close and competitive as opposed to the pre-election conventional wisdom that it would be a Feinstein blowout in which voting for de Leon was a safe protest vote, fewer conservatives would have voted for de Leon.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Virginiá on December 07, 2018, 01:41:32 PM
Huge news: Frank Chopp, Dem Speaker of the House will step down from his leadership role at the end of the 2019 session and I’m guessing will likely retire come 2020.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-house-speaker-frank-chopp-plans-to-step-down-from-leadership-role-at-end-of-2019-session/

Sorry to bother, but, do you (or anyone else) know the final results for the legislative races and what the majorities will look like for each race (factoring in any Democrats caucusing with Republicans)? I wanted to update wikipedia but not eager to start counting from Washington's enormous legislative results XML file.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on December 07, 2018, 01:48:25 PM
^ What about this link:

http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/Legislative-All.html

?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Virginiá on December 07, 2018, 01:50:43 PM
^ What about this link:

http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/Legislative-All.html

?

Yea I know, I was just hoping someone was already keeping a tally of the final partisan breakdown of each chamber.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: IceSpear on December 07, 2018, 05:27:36 PM
^ What about this link:

http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/Legislative-All.html

?

Yea I know, I was just hoping someone was already keeping a tally of the final partisan breakdown of each chamber.

Democrats gained 7 seats in the House and 3 seats in the Senate. The partisan breakdown is 57-41 and 28-21 respectively, counting Tim Sheldon as a Republican.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Virginiá on December 07, 2018, 06:22:54 PM
Democrats gained 7 seats in the House and 3 seats in the Senate. The partisan breakdown is 57-41 and 28-21 respectively, counting Tim Sheldon as a Republican.

Thanks! That is what I ended up putting down.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on January 23, 2019, 05:14:32 PM
With Inslee basically running for president...
Who runs for governor in 2020? Who do you want?

On the D side, I think it's pretty obvious King County Exec Dow Constantine is in.
I believe AG Bob Ferguson and LG Cyrus Habib want the job.

After that, I can't really think of any high profile Ds that would take a stab at it with those fighting it out. I also think Claudia Balducci will run for King Co Exec if Dow makes it.

I definitely will not be supporting Constantine after his inept response to the homeless and housing affordability emergencies.

I think I'm in the Habib camp should he run.

No clue who wants to run on the R side given the inevitable, a D win.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Flyersfan232 on January 30, 2019, 11:55:52 AM
With Inslee basically running for president...
Who runs for governor in 2020? Who do you want?

On the D side, I think it's pretty obvious King County Exec Dow Constantine is in.
I believe AG Bob Ferguson and LG Cyrus Habib want the job.

After that, I can't really think of any high profile Ds that would take a stab at it with those fighting it out. I also think Claudia Balducci will run for King Co Exec if Dow makes it.

I definitely will not be supporting Constantine after his inept response to the homeless and housing affordability emergencies.

I think I'm in the Habib camp should he run.

No clue who wants to run on the R side given the inevitable, a D win.
wasnt the 2016 race under 10%? also dont washington got two republicans in the row office one of them could run,


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on January 31, 2019, 04:33:15 AM
With Inslee basically running for president...
Who runs for governor in 2020? Who do you want?

On the D side, I think it's pretty obvious King County Exec Dow Constantine is in.
I believe AG Bob Ferguson and LG Cyrus Habib want the job.

After that, I can't really think of any high profile Ds that would take a stab at it with those fighting it out. I also think Claudia Balducci will run for King Co Exec if Dow makes it.

I definitely will not be supporting Constantine after his inept response to the homeless and housing affordability emergencies.

I think I'm in the Habib camp should he run.

No clue who wants to run on the R side given the inevitable, a D win.
wasnt the 2016 race under 10%? also dont washington got two republicans in the row office one of them could run,

Both are unlikely to run. They are nonoffencive (AFAIK) and competent, but Davidson mostly got elected because Democrats were extremely dumb, and ran 3 very serious candidates in top 2 primary. Republicans - exactly 2, and were lucky to get BOTH into run-off. Wyman? I like her a lot, and she is a solid moderate, but i don't see her running for anything, but her present SoS position.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 05, 2019, 11:15:55 PM
Just filled out my ballot for the primary - only three offices, and two are Port Commissioner positions. Voted for Shridhar and Felleman for Port Commission and Kerner for City Council. None were really votes of passion, and I just went with whoever's pamphlet blurb impressed me most.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 06, 2019, 02:03:25 PM
Just filled out my ballot for the primary - only three offices, and two are Port Commissioner positions. Voted for Shridhar and Felleman for Port Commission and Kerner for City Council. None were really votes of passion, and I just went with whoever's pamphlet blurb impressed me most.

oh god, you voted for Kerner!? She's a real kook.

My vote was for Shridhar and Felleman, and then I split my Council vote between Emily Myers and Shaun Scott (told my mom to vote for Myers).

The important thing is to make sure Alex Pederson, Ari Hoffman, Phil Tavel, and Heidi Wills lose. Ari and Phil are very likely to go down overall, but I worried about the other two.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 06, 2019, 11:11:07 PM
Initial results: (http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20190806/king/)

* = Incumbent

Seattle City Council District 1 Council District No. 1
Lisa Herbold* - 48.0%
Phil Tavel - 33.8%
Brendan Kolding - 17.8%
WI - 0.5%

Seattle City Council District 2 Council District No. 2
Tammy Morales - 44.7%
Mark Solomon - 24.6%
Ari Hoffman - 13.6%
Phyllis Porter - 6.2%
Chris Peguero - 5.2%
Omari Tahir-Garrett - 3.3%
Henry Dennison - 2.0%
WI - 0.5%

Seattle City Council District 3 Council District No. 3
Kshama Sawant* - 32.8%
Egan Orion - 23.7%
Pat Murakami - 14.2%
Zachary DeWolf - 12.5%
Amy Nguyen - 9.5%
Logan Bowers - 7.0%
WI - 0.2%

Seattle City Council District 4 Council District No. 4
Alex Pedersen - 45.4%
Shaun Scott - 19.4%
Cathy Tuttle - 12.7%
Emily Myers - 11.5%
Heidi Stuber - 3.7%
Beth Mountsier - 3.0%
Sasha Anderson - 1.3%
Joshua Newman - 1.2%
Frank A. Krueger - 0.9%
Ethan Hunter - 0.5%
WI - 0.4%

Seattle City Council District 5 Council District No. 5
Debora Juarez* - 42.3%
Ann Davison Sattler - 27.8%
John Lombard - 13.8%
Tayla Mahoney - 7.8%
Mark Mendez - 6.0%
Alex Tsimerman - 1.9%
WI - 0.4%

Seattle City Council District 6 Council District No. 6
Dan Strauss - 30.9%
Heidi Wills - 22.7%
Sergio Garcia - 14.6%
Jay Fathi - 13.6%
Kate Martin - 3.6%
Jon Lisbin - 3.3%
Jeremy Cook - 3.0%
Melissa Hall - 2.3%
Ed Pottharst - 1.8%
John Peeples - 1.6%
Terry Rice - 1.0%
Joey Massa - 0.9%
Kara Ceriello - 0.5%
WI - 0.3%

Seattle City Council District 7 Council District No. 7
Andrew J. Lewis - 28.9%
Jim Pugel - 26.5%
Daniela Lipscomb-Eng - 10.3%
Michael George - 8.7%
Gene Burrus - 6.3%
Jason Williams - 4.9%
Don Harper - 4.9%
Naveed Jamali - 3.1%
James Donaldson - 3.1%
Isabelle J. Kerner - 2.8%
WI - 0.4%

City of Seattle Proposition No. 1: Property Tax Levy Renewal for The Seattle Public Library
Yes - 73.0%
No - 27.0%

Metropolitan King County Proposition No. 1: Parks, Recreation, Trails and Open Space Levy
Approved - 67.3%
Rejected - 32.8%

County Council District No. 2 Council District No. 2
Girmay Zahilay - 52.1%
Larry Gossett* - 39.4%
Stan Lippmann - 7.8%
WI- 0.7%

County Council District No. 8 Council District No. 8
Joe McDermott* - 82.5%
Michael Robert Neher - 11.9%
Goodspaceguy - 5.0%
WI - 0.7%

Port of Seattle Commissioner Position No. 2
Sam Cho - 28.27%
Grant Degginger - 26.0%
Preeti Shridhar - 17.2%
Kelly Charlton - 11.7%
Dominic Barrera - 6.9%
Nina Martinez - 6.0%
Ali Scego - 3.2%
WI - 0.8%

Port of Seattle Commissioner Position No. 5
Fred Felleman* - 69.9%
Garth Jacobsen - 21.7%
Jordan Lemmon - 7.7%
WI - 0.8%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 06, 2019, 11:17:03 PM
oh god, you voted for Kerner!? She's a real kook.

I must be out of the loop. What's kooky about her? Nothing really jumped out when I Googled her.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on August 06, 2019, 11:55:25 PM
What about Cho - Degginger race in November? IIRC - one is very liberal Democrat, another - pragmatic moderate Republican. Both types of people have it's base of supporters, though first one seem to prevail in King county of late.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Gracile on August 21, 2019, 09:12:30 PM
Inslee likely running for a third term now that he has ended his presidential campaign:



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Oryxslayer on August 22, 2019, 11:57:25 AM


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: President Johnson on August 22, 2019, 03:21:47 PM


So, no EPA Administrator? Anyway, endorsed. He's a good guy.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Badger on August 22, 2019, 10:32:33 PM


So, no EPA Administrator? Anyway, endorsed. He's a good guy.

Still a possibility I would suppose


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Canis on August 23, 2019, 12:24:10 AM
Endorsed this race is pretty much safe inslee wonder what nut the gop will run


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: UncleSam on August 24, 2019, 02:47:32 PM
Anyone think Sawant might lose? Here’s hoping lol


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Politician on August 28, 2019, 05:28:08 PM
Self-identities Republicans in Washington plummet to 21%:

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/it-gets-better-nope-for-washington-state-gop-it-just-keeps-getting-worse/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Dr. Arch on August 30, 2019, 10:03:56 PM
Self-identities Republicans in Washington plummet to 21%:

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/it-gets-better-nope-for-washington-state-gop-it-just-keeps-getting-worse/

RIP


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Politician on September 01, 2019, 07:38:06 AM
Dave Reichert considering a gubernatorial bid:

https://q13fox.com/2019/08/30/dave-reichert-considering-run-for-washington-governor-in-2020/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: IceSpear on September 01, 2019, 04:45:24 PM
Dave Reichert considering a gubernatorial bid:

https://q13fox.com/2019/08/30/dave-reichert-considering-run-for-washington-governor-in-2020/

He likely would've lost his own Clinton +3 district last year, so it's hard to see him winning statewide. On the other hand, WA is a lot more friendly to Republicans on the gubernatorial level. On the other other hand, he'll be sharing the ballot with Trump.

I could see him reaching McKenna levels I guess, but probably not. Unless Inslee damaged himself with the botched presidential run, last time I checked his approvals were pretty decent.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort on September 03, 2019, 12:44:08 PM
Dave Reichert considering a gubernatorial bid:

https://q13fox.com/2019/08/30/dave-reichert-considering-run-for-washington-governor-in-2020/

He likely would've lost his own Clinton +3 district last year, so it's hard to see him winning statewide. On the other hand, WA is a lot more friendly to Republicans on the gubernatorial level. On the other other hand, he'll be sharing the ballot with Trump.

I could see him reaching McKenna levels I guess, but probably not. Unless Inslee damaged himself with the botched presidential run, last time I checked his approvals were pretty decent.

Republicans literally haven't won a gubernatorial election in Washington in 40 years. Reichert is DOA.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on September 03, 2019, 07:13:54 PM
Reichert has ruled out a run for gov in 2020. So... sacrificial GOP candidate Phil Fortunato gets to lose by 10+, the most since 2000.

LD-10 State Senator Barbara Bailey has announced she's retiring early, stepping down Sept 30th. The local county Rs get to choose her replacement, IDK if there's a special in 2020. This would be a competitive district (Ds gained one seat in the House here in 2018, and were close to a second).

LD-25 State Senator Hans Zeiger is retiring to run for Pierce County council. This is theoretically a target for Ds but it has been a tough nut to crack post-2012. It's got a lot of WWC and downscale suburban and exurban areas. Despite the two retiring R incumbents in 2018, both slots were won by new Rs roughly 52 - 48. This remains the last bastion of R suburban support in the Seattle area.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: IceSpear on September 03, 2019, 09:31:15 PM
Dave Reichert considering a gubernatorial bid:

https://q13fox.com/2019/08/30/dave-reichert-considering-run-for-washington-governor-in-2020/

He likely would've lost his own Clinton +3 district last year, so it's hard to see him winning statewide. On the other hand, WA is a lot more friendly to Republicans on the gubernatorial level. On the other other hand, he'll be sharing the ballot with Trump.

I could see him reaching McKenna levels I guess, but probably not. Unless Inslee damaged himself with the botched presidential run, last time I checked his approvals were pretty decent.

Republicans literally haven't won a gubernatorial election in Washington in 40 years. Reichert is DOA.

I said it was more friendly, relatively. Look at Inslee's victory margins vs. Obama/Clinton/Murray/Cantwell.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on November 06, 2019, 12:10:34 AM
So I just typed out a bunch of results only to have the site crash on me when I went to post, but here are some interesting things:

- The affirmative action initiative is very close

- Sawant is losing, but might still get very lucky with the late returns

- Eyman's vehicle tax initiative is doing well (yikes)

- A bunch of the Seattle City Council races are very close, and we likely won't know the winners for a few days


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ronnie on November 07, 2019, 09:51:07 PM
Sawant made up a lot of ground today.  She was at 45.8% yesterday and is at 48.6%, or 739 votes behind, after tonight’s dump, in which she won 59% of the votes.  As there are about 13K votes left to count, she needs about 53% of the remaining votes to win.  Dare I say, I think she’s favored, but of course, it’s too early to call.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: lfromnj on November 07, 2019, 09:54:59 PM
Dave Reichert considering a gubernatorial bid:

https://q13fox.com/2019/08/30/dave-reichert-considering-run-for-washington-governor-in-2020/

He likely would've lost his own Clinton +3 district last year, so it's hard to see him winning statewide. On the other hand, WA is a lot more friendly to Republicans on the gubernatorial level. On the other other hand, he'll be sharing the ballot with Trump.

I could see him reaching McKenna levels I guess, but probably not. Unless Inslee damaged himself with the botched presidential run, last time I checked his approvals were pretty decent.

Republicans literally haven't won a gubernatorial election in Washington in 40 years. Reichert is DOA.

#ROSSIWON
#STOLENELECTION


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on November 08, 2019, 12:18:14 AM
Sawant could pull this out, but it looks like Scott is done. :( Hopefully the Eyman initiative gets challenged in court.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: rob in cal on November 08, 2019, 11:54:21 AM
  I'm intrigued that the affirmative action referendum is so close. I would have thought the pro side would be ahead fairly comfortably.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: lfromnj on November 08, 2019, 01:06:39 PM
 I'm intrigued that the affirmative action referendum is so close. I would have thought the pro side would be ahead fairly comfortably.

Thank god Washington is semi-sane, a lot of these polls that show affirmative action is popular is just as bullsh**t as those 70% assault weapon bans and other polls. When it comes to the polls a lot of these things don't go the way a party wants. This also works for stuff like Voter ID. An Active partisan campaign can shift anything.

It is sad though that this ballot measure will likely pass due to King county dumps(Not saying their votes shouldn't be counted)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on November 08, 2019, 07:02:18 PM
Sawant just took the lead, albeit narrowly. Scott's now only down 53-46, but the raw vote margin is only slightly smaller. Referendum 88 is now passing by .06%, or a little under 1,000 votes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on November 08, 2019, 08:34:47 PM
Copying down some results from the SoS page:

R-88 (Affirmative action)
Reject: 50.43%
Approve: 49.57%

I-976 (Tim Eyman's vehicle tax limit)
Yes: 53.21%
No: 46.79%

Senate Joint Resolution 8200 (Amendment to expand emergency legislative powers)
Approve: 65.36%
Reject: 34.64%

Seattle City Council District 1
Herbold (i): 55.36%
Tavel: 44.28%

Seattle City Council District 2
Morales: 59.85%
Solomon: 39.65%

Seattle City Council District 3
Sawant (i): 50.45%
Orion: 49.09%

Seattle City Council District 4
Pedersen: 53.49%
Scott: 46.20%

Seattle City Council District 5
Juarez (i): 60.08%
Sattler: 39.56%

Seattle City Council District 6
Strauss: 55.05%
Wills: 44.46%

Seattle City Council District 7
Lewis: 52.09
Pugel: 47.45%






Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on November 08, 2019, 08:37:09 PM
My hot take: It says a lot about Seattle City politics that Sawant can recover this well from the primary, even if Orion somehow makes a miraculous comeback. It means there are a sizeable chunk of people who probably don't identify as socialists, but who hate Amazon enough to vote for Sawant. Something Democrats should really keep in mind across the country going into 2020.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on November 09, 2019, 12:51:16 AM
Final update before the long weekend:

R-88 (Affirmative action)
Reject: 50.28%
Approve: 49.72%

I-976 (Tim Eyman's vehicle tax limit)
Yes: 52.93%
No: 47.07%

Senate Joint Resolution 8200 (Amendment to expand emergency legislative powers)
Approve: 65.40%
Reject: 34.60%

Seattle City Council District 1
Herbold (i): 55.63%
Tavel: 44.00%

Seattle City Council District 2
Morales: 60.32%
Solomon: 39.19%

Seattle City Council District 3
Sawant (i): 51.57%
Orion: 47.95%

Seattle City Council District 4
Pedersen: 52.34%
Scott: 47.32%

Seattle City Council District 5
Juarez (i): 60.53%
Sattler: 39.10%

Seattle City Council District 6
Strauss: 55.44%
Wills: 44.05%

Seattle City Council District 7
Lewis: 52.79%
Pugel: 46.76%

If there are more outstanding ballots left than expected, Scott might have an outside chance of catching up, but it's pretty unlikely. Assuming Pedersen wins, Amazon will have gotten 2 out of their 7 preferred candidates.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 09, 2019, 01:03:29 AM
So Sawant has pulled ahead!! :D Thank goodness.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: cwt on November 09, 2019, 01:30:18 AM
Is anyone else kind of surprised at Advisory Vote No. 23?

I know they don't actually matter, but as far as I can tell it's the biggest "maintained" vote any advisory vote has ever gotten, and by a pretty large margin. Pretty rare to see 36 counties agree on anything, let alone on approving a tax.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on November 09, 2019, 07:29:52 AM
So Sawant has pulled ahead!! :D Thank goodness.

No "thank goodness", but - damn!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on November 09, 2019, 11:53:40 AM

Yes, because a city councilperson winning re-election in Seattle is going to have a profound impact on life in Russia.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on November 09, 2019, 12:36:15 PM

Yes, because a city councilperson winning re-election in Seattle is going to have a profound impact on life in Russia.

No. Because i visceraaly hate radical socialists...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on November 09, 2019, 08:49:39 PM

Yes, because a city councilperson winning re-election in Seattle is going to have a profound impact on life in Russia.

No. Because i visceraaly hate radical socialists...

Despite right-wing talking points about Seattle being a "socialist haven", we're actually very far from it, and could use a bit more socialism here, given how much income inequality there is, and how increasingly impossible it is for even middle-class families to get by.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: MT Treasurer on November 09, 2019, 09:54:17 PM
Final update before the long weekend:

R-88 (Affirmative action)
Reject: 50.28%
Approve: 49.72%

Approve could still win win out here, right?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on November 09, 2019, 09:57:02 PM
Final update before the long weekend:

R-88 (Affirmative action)
Reject: 50.28%
Approve: 49.72%

Approve could still win win out here, right?

It's technically possible, but they're only estimating another 6,300 ballots left to count in King county, so unless they're lowballing it, it's definitely more likely than not to fail, at this point.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on November 09, 2019, 11:37:14 PM

I think Amazon really shot themselves in the foot by going all-in on Orion. It's not like Sawant is a mega-popular juggernaut, but she really typifies the "well, if everyone hates her, so she must be doing something right" aesthetic. Not entirely unlike Trump in that regard.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: lfromnj on November 10, 2019, 01:08:37 AM
Final update before the long weekend:

R-88 (Affirmative action)
Reject: 50.28%
Approve: 49.72%

Approve could still win win out here, right?

It's technically possible, but they're only estimating another 6,300 ballots left to count in King county, so unless they're lowballing it, it's definitely more likely than not to fail, at this point.

Wonderful news! The rest of Washington may just have enough power to save Seattle from its #wokeness.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on November 10, 2019, 06:45:36 PM
Final update before the long weekend:

R-88 (Affirmative action)
Reject: 50.28%
Approve: 49.72%

Approve could still win win out here, right?

It's technically possible, but they're only estimating another 6,300 ballots left to count in King county, so unless they're lowballing it, it's definitely more likely than not to fail, at this point.

Wonderful news! The rest of Washington may just have enough power to save Seattle from its #wokeness.

Affirmative action existed as a concept way before "wokeness"  did.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on November 10, 2019, 08:05:27 PM
Final update before the long weekend:

R-88 (Affirmative action)
Reject: 50.28%
Approve: 49.72%

Approve could still win win out here, right?

It's technically possible, but they're only estimating another 6,300 ballots left to count in King county, so unless they're lowballing it, it's definitely more likely than not to fail, at this point.

Wonderful news! The rest of Washington may just have enough power to save Seattle from its #wokeness.

Affirmative action existed as a concept way before "wokeness"  did.

Sadly, though, most discussions about it are just as *nuanced* as discussions about "wokeness."


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: lfromnj on November 10, 2019, 10:27:37 PM
Final update before the long weekend:

R-88 (Affirmative action)
Reject: 50.28%
Approve: 49.72%

Approve could still win win out here, right?

It's technically possible, but they're only estimating another 6,300 ballots left to count in King county, so unless they're lowballing it, it's definitely more likely than not to fail, at this point.

Wonderful news! The rest of Washington may just have enough power to save Seattle from its #wokeness.

Affirmative action existed as a concept way before "wokeness"  did.

Sadly, though, most discussions about it are just as *nuanced* as discussions about "wokeness."

Not much need for nuance when the state is doing discrimination based on race or other factors.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on November 11, 2019, 12:05:47 AM
Final update before the long weekend:

R-88 (Affirmative action)
Reject: 50.28%
Approve: 49.72%

Approve could still win win out here, right?

It's technically possible, but they're only estimating another 6,300 ballots left to count in King county, so unless they're lowballing it, it's definitely more likely than not to fail, at this point.

Wonderful news! The rest of Washington may just have enough power to save Seattle from its #wokeness.

Affirmative action existed as a concept way before "wokeness"  did.

Sadly, though, most discussions about it are just as *nuanced* as discussions about "wokeness."

Not much need for nuance when the state is doing discrimination based on race or other factors.


You realize that you're proving my point, right? And I have mixed feelings about affirmative action.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: lfromnj on November 11, 2019, 02:34:38 AM
Final update before the long weekend:

R-88 (Affirmative action)
Reject: 50.28%
Approve: 49.72%

Approve could still win win out here, right?

It's technically possible, but they're only estimating another 6,300 ballots left to count in King county, so unless they're lowballing it, it's definitely more likely than not to fail, at this point.

Wonderful news! The rest of Washington may just have enough power to save Seattle from its #wokeness.

Affirmative action existed as a concept way before "wokeness"  did.

Sadly, though, most discussions about it are just as *nuanced* as discussions about "wokeness."

Not much need for nuance when the state is doing discrimination based on race or other factors.


You realize that you're proving my point, right? And I have mixed feelings about affirmative action.

Giving nuance to the argument if we should do race or gender based affirmative action is almost as bad as giving nuance to the argument of if vaccinations are good. Just because there are two sides doesn't mean both sides are equal.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on November 11, 2019, 04:03:54 AM
Final update before the long weekend:

R-88 (Affirmative action)
Reject: 50.28%
Approve: 49.72%

Approve could still win win out here, right?

It's technically possible, but they're only estimating another 6,300 ballots left to count in King county, so unless they're lowballing it, it's definitely more likely than not to fail, at this point.

Wonderful news! The rest of Washington may just have enough power to save Seattle from its #wokeness.

Affirmative action existed as a concept way before "wokeness"  did.

Sadly, though, most discussions about it are just as *nuanced* as discussions about "wokeness."

Not much need for nuance when the state is doing discrimination based on race or other factors.


You realize that you're proving my point, right? And I have mixed feelings about affirmative action.

Giving nuance to the argument if we should do race or gender based affirmative action is almost as bad as giving nuance to the argument of if vaccinations are good. Just because there are two sides doesn't mean both sides are equal.

Not even close. There isn’t merely one way to implement affirmative action, and there are examples in which quotas are not used. Now, the language in the proposal was far too vague, in my opinion, but I could easily say that anyone who strongly opposes any form of affirmative action wants to stop brown people from getting jobs. If I did so, I’d rightfully be attacked for using a strawman and not making any attempt to understand where people are coming from. Not sure why it’s okay when it’s done the other way.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 11, 2019, 12:11:40 PM
My take on these elections:

  • By far the worst result: I-976 passing. It it likely to be overturned in the WA Supreme Court, but it will seriously hamper Sound Transit and the organization's ability to build out the transit system authorized in ST-3 if not repealed. More pressing, however, is the decimation that this will bring to Seattle's Transportation Benefit District that supplies additional funds to provide significant bus service hours in the city. Currently 70% of households in Seattle are 1/4 mile from transit that comes every 15 minutes or less. That would plummet to 40-45% without the funding. The city will be able to cover funding next year, but that's not a solution that can last much longer than that.
  • Amazon Basics: They basically all failed. Technically 2/7 of their candidates won - Juarez (cross-endorsed by everyone) and Pederson (I'll get to this later). Seattle's (progressive) Silent Majority came out enforce to repudiate the unprecedented barrage of corporate campaign dollars in a local election.
  • Sawant vs. Orion: I've seen a lot of takes on Twitter and in general that I think miss the mark. I don't think she won because Socialists came out of the woodwork, but because she faced a flawed opponent. Her base is strong and will always get out to vote for her. Sawant is very much a polarizing figure that can absolutely be beat if an actual progressive ran against her (from the primary - Ami Nguyen/Logan Bowers/Zac deWolf). However, her last two opponents have been total duds. Pamela Banks (2015 candidate) was worse than Orion, who himself only got through the primary thanks to CASE spending and cozying up to Amazon. I'm not a D3 voter and am not a fan of Sawant (I admire her fight for the working class - that has produced real results like the $15 min wage - but I have a dislike for her as a politician and her ideology), but I would have voted both in 2015 and last week for her. I think that's how a lot of voters feel.
  • D4 Pedersen vs Scott: Heartbreak. My favorite candidate lost to my least favorite. While Pedersen was one of the Amazon supported candidates, this race cleaved along different lines: NIMBY vs YIMBY (or pro-growth). Scott is DSA, but he's also an ardent urbanist and YIMBY-through-a-socialist-lens. It's also why he was ultimately unsuccessful IMO. Pedersen is less of a corporate candidate than he is an anti-growth, "lesser Seattle" one. Sawant received substantial support from precincts dominated by single-family home owners (and renters) that cannot be said for Scott. As a result we trade two awesome ex/interim-councilmembers (Johnson and Pacheco) for someone who opposes transit (was against ST3 and TBD funding for enhanced bus service), bike lanes, and HALA/MHA - the policy that upzoned much of Seattle and created mandatory affordable housing in all new multi-family development.
  • Most progressive council in a long time: I think we'll see a more aggressive version of the head tax and I think it will honestly be better received than last time.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on November 11, 2019, 11:06:41 PM
This is the guy Sawant beat:

()

lulz


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 11, 2019, 11:13:35 PM
uh...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LiberalDem19 on November 11, 2019, 11:16:47 PM
My take on these elections:

  • By far the worst result: I-976 passing. It it likely to be overturned in the WA Supreme Court, but it will seriously hamper Sound Transit and the organization's ability to build out the transit system authorized in ST-3 if not repealed. More pressing, however, is the decimation that this will bring to Seattle's Transportation Benefit District that supplies additional funds to provide significant bus service hours in the city. Currently 70% of households in Seattle are 1/4 mile from transit that comes every 15 minutes or less. That would plummet to 40-45% without the funding. The city will be able to cover funding next year, but that's not a solution that can last much longer than that.
  • Amazon Basics: They basically all failed. Technically 2/7 of their candidates won - Juarez (cross-endorsed by everyone) and Pederson (I'll get to this later). Seattle's (progressive) Silent Majority came out enforce to repudiate the unprecedented barrage of corporate campaign dollars in a local election.
  • Sawant vs. Orion: I've seen a lot of takes on Twitter and in general that I think miss the mark. I don't think she won because Socialists came out of the woodwork, but because she faced a flawed opponent. Her base is strong and will always get out to vote for her. Sawant is very much a polarizing figure that can absolutely be beat if an actual progressive ran against her (from the primary - Ami Nguyen/Logan Bowers/Zac deWolf). However, her last two opponents have been total duds. Pamela Banks (2015 candidate) was worse than Orion, who himself only got through the primary thanks to CASE spending and cozying up to Amazon. I'm not a D3 voter and am not a fan of Sawant (I admire her fight for the working class - that has produced real results like the $15 min wage - but I have a dislike for her as a politician and her ideology), but I would have voted both in 2015 and last week for her. I think that's how a lot of voters feel.
  • D4 Pedersen vs Scott: Heartbreak. My favorite candidate lost to my least favorite. While Pedersen was one of the Amazon supported candidates, this race cleaved along different lines: NIMBY vs YIMBY (or pro-growth). Scott is DSA, but he's also an ardent urbanist and YIMBY-through-a-socialist-lens. It's also why he was ultimately unsuccessful IMO. Pedersen is less of a corporate candidate than he is an anti-growth, "lesser Seattle" one. Sawant received substantial support from precincts dominated by single-family home owners (and renters) that cannot be said for Scott. As a result we trade two awesome ex/interim-councilmembers (Johnson and Pacheco) for someone who opposes transit (was against ST3 and TBD funding for enhanced bus service), bike lanes, and HALA/MHA - the policy that upzoned much of Seattle and created mandatory affordable housing in all new multi-family development.
  • Most progressive council in a long time: I think we'll see a more aggressive version of the head tax and I think it will honestly be better received than last time.

What was Egan Orion thinking setting up HQ at Uncle Ike's? He does realize that Ian Eisenberg is absolutely loathed in the Central District, right? It came across as tone deaf, and no wonder he lost. Anti-Sawant people need to get smarter and put up a non-polarizing progressive candidate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GoTfan on November 15, 2019, 08:29:39 PM
So to sum up, Amazon's money dump failed spectacularly.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on November 16, 2019, 12:30:39 AM
So to sum up, Amazon's money dump failed spectacularly.

By Amazon's standards this wasn't especially big money dump. And next time they may be quite successfull: the "progressives" will show the city's citizens their idiocy as politicians in years to come.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on November 17, 2019, 12:54:38 AM
Orion was a lame candidate, literally a nobody who proudly called himself "Flash Mob King" and had no history of success.

Unfortunately, there were no real qualified challengers to Sawant in the primary.  Logan Bowers was a nobody.  Pat Murakami was an activist perennial candidate.  Ami Nguyen was clueless.  Zac DeWolf was a loathed school board member trying to fail up.

Orion's lameness carried over into the general election, where he had zero presence, zero personality and zero GOTV effort.  He held even in his public appearances but had no campaign strategy.  CASE, the Super PAC Amazon donated to, spent a bunch of money sending out flyers and pamphlets on his behalf.  But that did more harm than good as it allowed Sawant to aggressively spam "STOP AMAZON CORPORATE CASH" posters and t-shirts all over town.  This brought in new voters who had no idea who the candidates were but were eager to cast a "Screw Bezos" vote.

One of these days Sawant will get a real challenger.  Until then, Seattle gets four more years of dysfunctional government.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GoTfan on November 18, 2019, 05:29:56 AM
Orion was a lame candidate, literally a nobody who proudly called himself "Flash Mob King" and had no history of success.

Unfortunately, there were no real qualified challengers to Sawant in the primary.  Logan Bowers was a nobody.  Pat Murakami was an activist perennial candidate.  Ami Nguyen was clueless.  Zac DeWolf was a loathed school board member trying to fail up.

Orion's lameness carried over into the general election, where he had zero presence, zero personality and zero GOTV effort.  He held even in his public appearances but had no campaign strategy.  CASE, the Super PAC Amazon donated to, spent a bunch of money sending out flyers and pamphlets on his behalf.  But that did more harm than good as it allowed Sawant to aggressively spam "STOP AMAZON CORPORATE CASH" posters and t-shirts all over town.  This brought in new voters who had no idea who the candidates were but were eager to cast a "Screw Bezos" vote.

One of these days Sawant will get a real challenger.  Until then, Seattle gets four more years of dysfunctional government.

Lame or not, he still lost


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 19, 2019, 10:25:19 AM
Glad to see R-88 was officially rejected. It's pretty rare to see a more "conservative" side eke out an election night victory and then hold on through late arriving ballots.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on November 19, 2019, 11:38:48 AM
While I'm 99% sure that this isn't why conservatives rejected R-88, I think that what made the difference and pushed some Democrats to reject it as well as how vague it was. It could easily have ended up in court.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 19, 2019, 12:36:32 PM
While I'm 99% sure that this isn't why conservatives rejected R-88, I think that what made the difference and pushed some Democrats to reject it as well as how vague it was. It could easily have ended up in court.

I also don't understand why they didn't wait until 2020... This seems like something that would very well pass in a non off election year.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on November 22, 2019, 06:36:50 PM
My take on these elections:

  • By far the worst result: I-976 passing. It it likely to be overturned in the WA Supreme Court, but it will seriously hamper Sound Transit and the organization's ability to build out the transit system authorized in ST-3 if not repealed. More pressing, however, is the decimation that this will bring to Seattle's Transportation Benefit District that supplies additional funds to provide significant bus service hours in the city. Currently 70% of households in Seattle are 1/4 mile from transit that comes every 15 minutes or less. That would plummet to 40-45% without the funding. The city will be able to cover funding next year, but that's not a solution that can last much longer than that.

You might want to read this:

Sound Transit will keep collecting its car-tab taxes, despite I-976 vote (https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/transportation/sound-transit-will-keep-collecting-its-car-tab-taxes-despite-i-976-vote/)




Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on November 22, 2019, 06:40:02 PM
Oh, and by the way -Tim Eyman wants to run for governor (https://mynorthwest.com/1610875/tim-eyman-governor-976/)!

It isn't clear yet whether he is running as a Republican, a Libertarian, or as an independent candidate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 22, 2019, 07:36:06 PM
Oh, and by the way -Tim Eyman wants to run for governor (https://mynorthwest.com/1610875/tim-eyman-governor-976/)!

It isn't clear yet whether he is running as a Republican, a Libertarian, or as an independent candidate.

HAHAHAHAHA! I love that he violated campaign rules *during* his attempt to make an announcement. What a schmuck. I'd love to see him run - he'll get crushed. ..might even be in jail by that point though. Do we think he'd try to run from prison?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 22, 2019, 07:50:53 PM
lol Eyman


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: cwt on March 16, 2020, 08:04:19 PM
Quote from: Seattle Times
Tim Eyman, the initiative promoter leading early polls to be the Republican candidate for governor this fall, spent Saturday rooting for a political rally of 250+ people to “stick our finger in the eye of Jay Inslee.”

In an email blast to supporters, Eyman flouted public health restrictions and advice on slowing the spread of coronavirus, saying “251 is the # of patriots I hope will join me @ Oak Harbor today. I’m bringing a 6-pack of Corona!”

As with some other of Eyman’s publicity gags, it was more bluster than reality. In a phone interview Saturday, he said actual turnout at the event was “about 60.”

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/coronavirus-daily-news-update-march-14-what-to-know-today-about-covid-19-in-the-seattle-area-washington-state-and-the-nation/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: QAnonKelly on March 17, 2020, 02:00:36 PM
Quote from: Seattle Times
Tim Eyman, the initiative promoter leading early polls to be the Republican candidate for governor this fall, spent Saturday rooting for a political rally of 250+ people to “stick our finger in the eye of Jay Inslee.”

In an email blast to supporters, Eyman flouted public health restrictions and advice on slowing the spread of coronavirus, saying “251 is the # of patriots I hope will join me @ Oak Harbor today. I’m bringing a 6-pack of Corona!”

As with some other of Eyman’s publicity gags, it was more bluster than reality. In a phone interview Saturday, he said actual turnout at the event was “about 60.”

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/coronavirus-daily-news-update-march-14-what-to-know-today-about-covid-19-in-the-seattle-area-washington-state-and-the-nation/

This is, quite literally, "get your supporters sick to own the libs".


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on March 17, 2020, 02:57:44 PM
Will Eyman break 40% in November? I'm thinking not.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on March 17, 2020, 03:11:55 PM
Will Eyman break 40% in November? I'm thinking not.
Inslee has been fairly competent in his handling of the virus, no? I think that probably helps him come November.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on March 17, 2020, 04:27:54 PM
Will Eyman break 40% in November? I'm thinking not.
Inslee has been fairly competent in his handling of the virus, no? I think that probably helps him come November.

Yes, but there's a lot more of this crisis to go through.
I also don't see why state senator Phil Fortunato, a mini-Trump in his own right, wouldn't beat Eyman in the jungle. Maybe I wrongly assume conservatives see Eyman for the grifter that he is, rather than as an "anti-tax champion".


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on March 17, 2020, 05:27:55 PM
Will Eyman break 40% in November? I'm thinking not.
Inslee has been fairly competent in his handling of the virus, no? I think that probably helps him come November.

While Inslee is decently well-liked here, it’s very rare for a gubernatorial race to be as lopsided as Senate/Presidential races tend to be, and so especially with our top two primary system, I doubt Eyman would get less than 40%. Less than 45%? Definitely possible, if not probable.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on March 19, 2020, 01:39:53 PM
In non-COVID-19 news, a shocker: LG Cyrus Habib (D) is not running for re-election and will join the Jesuits.
Given his political trajectory WA house 2012 > WA senate 2014 > LG 2016, this is a surprise move for someone who was not unlikely to be the next governor.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/washington-lt-gov-cyrus-habib-will-not-run-for-reelection-says-he-plans-to-join-jesuit-religious-order/ (https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/washington-lt-gov-cyrus-habib-will-not-run-for-reelection-says-he-plans-to-join-jesuit-religious-order/)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on March 19, 2020, 03:23:12 PM
In non-COVID-19 news, a shocker: LG Cyrus Habib (D) is not running for re-election and will join the Jesuits.
Given his political trajectory WA house 2012 > WA senate 2014 > LG 2016, this is a surprise move for someone who was not unlikely to be the next governor.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/washington-lt-gov-cyrus-habib-will-not-run-for-reelection-says-he-plans-to-join-jesuit-religious-order/ (https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/washington-lt-gov-cyrus-habib-will-not-run-for-reelection-says-he-plans-to-join-jesuit-religious-order/)


<3


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on April 14, 2020, 05:38:44 PM
The race for Governor, er, LG looks like this:

Denny Heck (WA-10, D) - He's got to be the presumed favorite. Establishment D, but a 'pragmatic progressive' - he's been in WA politics since the 70s.
Marko Liias (LD-21, D) - Lost in the 2016 primary for State Treasurer, which led to an R-R general. But he's also got the endorsement of Habib. He's a suburban liberal.
Steve Hobbs (LD-44, D) - Lost to Habib in 2016 LG primary. Suburban moderate.

No major Rs have yet filed to run, though Joseph Brumbles the R candidate in 2018 against Heck is running.

Interestingly, Heck has said that he intends to stand down if Inslee is appointed to an administration position. "I will not stand for election, period." Huh. Idk if I believe that. Maybe he's maneuvering to make it easier for Ferguson or Constantine to win in a subsequent messy field...?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on April 16, 2020, 05:32:02 PM
Interestingly, Heck has said that he intends to stand down if Inslee is appointed to an administration position. "I will not stand for election, period." Huh. Idk if I believe that. Maybe he's maneuvering to make it easier for Ferguson or Constantine to win in a subsequent messy field...?

A solid theory.  Locke put the establishment support behind Gregoire and she did the same for Inslee.  He will work out support for the next governor-in-waiting -- if it hasn't been decided already.  And Heck is part and parcel of the WA Democratic Establishment.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on April 16, 2020, 06:11:34 PM
And Gregoire has already endorsed Heck.... Hmm.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on April 16, 2020, 09:14:46 PM
resident washington posters: Do you think Josh Collins has even the slightest possibility of making the top 2?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on April 17, 2020, 12:32:29 AM
resident washington posters: Do you think Josh Collins has even the slightest possibility of making the top 2?

Lol, lol not in the slightest between Reeves, Strickland, and the R(s).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on April 17, 2020, 03:19:51 PM
resident washington posters: Do you think Josh Collins has even the slightest possibility of making the top 2?

No.  WA-10 is a moderately Democratic suburban district.  It is not a hard-core progressive district like WA-7.  He's a bad fit and has no experience.

Of the legitimate candidates, his run might be most problematic for State Rep. Beth Doglio.  She represents the Olympia area and I could see Collins siphoning votes from her among the Evergreen State College community.  This may give Kristine Reeves and/or Marilyn Strickland an advantage.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on April 17, 2020, 06:24:10 PM
resident washington posters: Do you think Josh Collins has even the slightest possibility of making the top 2?

No.  WA-10 is a moderately Democratic suburban district.  It is not a hard-core progressive district like WA-7.  He's a bad fit and has no experience.

Of the legitimate candidates, his run might be most problematic for State Rep. Beth Doglio.  She represents the Olympia area and I could see Collins siphoning votes from her among the Evergreen State College community.  This may give Kristine Reeves and/or Marilyn Strickland an advantage.

Huh. I did not even realize Doglio is running! She initially sat it out back in December and only announced last month when, COVID-19 was the only thing on people's minds. That's not a great start to a campaign. I definitely support her over Reeves (I am not a fan of Strickland). She's got the Thurston vote sewn up, which immediately puts her at an advantage. The primary map, come August, is going to be fascinating. Honestly, it would not surprise me to see this end up D-D because none of the Rs are even B-level candidates (none of the five hold any sort of elected position).

Anyway, now that I've gone down the rabbit hole of FEC reports, this is what the reported Q1 fundraising numbers show:

Kristine Reeves (D): $274,058.63 raised, $73,990.58 spent, $200,068.05 COH
Marilyn Strickland (D): $251,651.99 raised, $102,505.05 spent, $149,146.94 COH
Beth Doglio (D): $239,639.00 raised, $20,167.02 spent, $219,471.98 COH
Phil Gardner (D): $108,823.69 raised, $42,667.68 spent, $66,156.01 COH (He's Heck's District Director and is very much rooted locally - from Puyallup/University Place)
Joshua Collins (D): Not yet reporting had 59k COH at end of 2019 Q4

Nancy Slotnick (R): $27,489.00 raised, $23,161.00 spent, $4,523.12 COH - C-level candidate, "fiscal conservative and a social moderate"
Rian Ingrim (R): $625.00 raised, $31.64 spent, $593.36 COH - literal nobody
Ryan Tate (R): $615.00 raised, $69.35 spent, $545.65 COH - literal nobody
Don Hewitt (R): $200.07 raised, $476.23 spent, $1,723.84 COH - literal nobody
Dan Gordon (R): Not yet reporting - but a literal nobody


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LiberalDem19 on April 17, 2020, 07:49:30 PM
What do y'all think happens in the Treasurer race?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on April 18, 2020, 12:17:29 AM
Huh. I did not even realize Doglio is running! She initially sat it out back in December and only announced last month when, COVID-19 was the only thing on people's minds. That's not a great start to a campaign. I definitely support her over Reeves (I am not a fan of Strickland). She's got the Thurston vote sewn up, which immediately puts her at an advantage. The primary map, come August, is going to be fascinating. Honestly, it would not surprise me to see this end up D-D because none of the Rs are even B-level candidates (none of the five hold any sort of elected position).

Anyway, now that I've gone down the rabbit hole of FEC reports, this is what the reported Q1 fundraising numbers show:

Kristine Reeves (D): $274,058.63 raised, $73,990.58 spent, $200,068.05 COH
Marilyn Strickland (D): $251,651.99 raised, $102,505.05 spent, $149,146.94 COH
Beth Doglio (D): $239,639.00 raised, $20,167.02 spent, $219,471.98 COH
Phil Gardner (D): $108,823.69 raised, $42,667.68 spent, $66,156.01 COH (He's Heck's District Director and is very much rooted locally - from Puyallup/University Place)
Joshua Collins (D): Not yet reporting had 59k COH at end of 2019 Q4

Nancy Slotnick (R): $27,489.00 raised, $23,161.00 spent, $4,523.12 COH - C-level candidate, "fiscal conservative and a social moderate"
Rian Ingrim (R): $625.00 raised, $31.64 spent, $593.36 COH - literal nobody
Ryan Tate (R): $615.00 raised, $69.35 spent, $545.65 COH - literal nobody
Don Hewitt (R): $200.07 raised, $476.23 spent, $1,723.84 COH - literal nobody
Dan Gordon (R): Not yet reporting - but a literal nobody

Thanks for providing those.  Yes, Beth Doglio has a considerable advantage in that she appears to have no real competition for the Thurston County vote.  Indeed, that may have spurred her (somewhat late) entry into the race.  Reeves and Strickland, her strongest competitors, both come from the northeastern part of the district.  Doglio has posted competitive fundraising numbers even though she got a later start than the others.

Joshua Collins was interviewed in The Cooper Point Journal, the student newspaper at Evergreen State College.  It's been two decades since I was a student there but I don't think the politics have changed much.  Being a Democrat at that school made me feel like I was in the conservative party.

http://www.cooperpointjournal.com/2019/06/05/joshua-collins/ (http://www.cooperpointjournal.com/2019/06/05/joshua-collins/)



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on May 13, 2020, 03:00:50 PM
Update on the 10th Congressional District race:

Quote
The three candidates for the 10th Congressional District seat who have showed the most fundraising prowess are former state Rep. Kristine Reeves of Federal Way, former Tacoma Mayor Marilyn Strickland, and state Rep. Beth Doglio of Olympia. The three also have announced major endorsements in recent weeks.

Quote
Reeves had raised the most at $274,058 and spent $73,990, leaving her campaign with a balance of $200,068 ; Strickland collected $251,651 and spent $102,505, with cash on hand of $149,146 ; Doglio raised $239,639, leaving her with a balance of $219,471. She entered the race on Feb. 29, compared to early January for Reeves and December for Strickland.

Quote
On Monday, a week after Reeves announced that her campaign had raised the most funds, she trumpeted an endorsement from the National Education Association political action committee. The PAC picked her based on a recommendation from Washington Education Association members. She also has won endorsements from Teamsters Joint Council No. 28 and the Laborers’ International Union of North America.

Quote
Doglio also made a big splash on Monday, announcing that U.S. Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Seattle, and the Congressional Progressive Caucus political action committee had endorsed her. Jayapal is a co-chair of the PAC. Doglio also has landed several labor endorsements, including the Washington Federation of State Employees and United Food and Commercial Workers 21.

Quote
Late last month, Strickland announced that former governors Christine Gregoire and Gary Locke had endorsed her, along with former U.S. Rep. Norm Dicks.

https://www.theolympian.com/news/politics-government/election/article242605546.html (https://www.theolympian.com/news/politics-government/election/article242605546.html)



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ON Progressive on May 15, 2020, 08:27:30 PM


Good riddance!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on May 16, 2020, 12:10:30 AM
Olive oil Shea is a terrorist and a f**king lunatic and should be in jail. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on May 16, 2020, 10:06:19 AM
Tim Eyman is making it official:

I-976 sponsor Tim Eyman officially challenges Jay Inslee for Washington state governor (https://www.king5.com/article/news/politics/state-politics/i-976-sponsor-tim-eyman-officially-challenges-jay-inslee-for-washington-state-governor/281-e70b4c13-e939-45dd-ad04-935818bf3b39)
Longtime initiative sponsor, Tim Eyman, officially filed his candidacy for governor with the Secretary of State's office Thursday. He is running as a Republican.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Left Wing on May 16, 2020, 11:51:57 AM
Washington should adopt the Louisiana primary model. It doesn't make much sense to hold another election if one candidate gets more than half the vote. Inslee will get a majority in the primary but because of the top-two system we have to hold another election in which Eyeman will get smoked.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on May 16, 2020, 12:08:33 PM


Good riddance!

Thank god.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Left Wing on May 25, 2020, 03:20:54 PM
Steve Hobbs dropped out of the race for LG. He was just endorsed by Gary Locke and Brad Owen. It is a good choice. He will only split the moderate vote between him and Denny Heck. Latest polls showed Heck in first with Brumbles and Hobbs tied for second.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on May 25, 2020, 09:06:10 PM
This won’t be the last we hear of Matt Shea.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: QAnonKelly on May 26, 2020, 12:05:58 AM


Good riddance!

He’ll probably be the GOP presidential nominee in the next decade.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on May 26, 2020, 01:53:13 AM


Good riddance!

He’ll probably be the GOP presidential nominee in the next decade.

With Republican party rapidly becoming cultist Trump organization - quite possibly....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: cwt on June 18, 2020, 10:09:00 PM
Chris Vance: The GOP effort for the governor's office is futile (https://crosscut.com/2020/06/gop-effort-governors-office-futile)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on June 19, 2020, 07:29:31 PM
I can't wait for the August primary!
I can't imagine Eyman losing given his name recognition. Maybe Fortunato could've given him a bit of a challenge if it wasn't for COVID and BLM protests.

What's looking like a certainty is the decimation of Rs at the state level, beyond what happened in 2018. Mike Pellicciotti (D, LD-30) should easily defeat Duane Davidson, the current R-held Treasurer (elected by virtue of two Rs making it out of the primary). They're the only two that filed to run, so it should be clear from the primary the direction downballot state races will follow.

I think Gael Tarleton (D, LD-36) will beat Kim Wyman as well. The only moderately competitive state-wide race.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on June 19, 2020, 08:11:03 PM
Chris Vance: The GOP effort for the governor's office is futile (https://crosscut.com/2020/06/gop-effort-governors-office-futile)

How much can Democrats expand their majorities in the legislature this year? 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Left Wing on June 19, 2020, 10:38:07 PM
I can't wait for the August primary!
I can't imagine Eyman losing given his name recognition. Maybe Fortunato could've given him a bit of a challenge if it wasn't for COVID and BLM protests.
I think Freed is more likely to come ahead of Eyeman than Fortunato.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on June 20, 2020, 05:29:20 PM
Has anyone taken a look at the King5/SurveyUSA poll done last week?

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=85b4bf79-80ea-45f1-bddf-88ffd27c2758&c=28

..I don't know exactly what to think of it yet. Seems like the Mayor and the police chief are getting mixed reviews for their handling of the protests (calls for resignation among protesters don't seem to be getting tons of traction).

One fascinating tidbit: concern for personal safety strongly correlates with party affiliation and ideology.

BLM is supported by 82% of the city populace (10% don't support)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on June 21, 2020, 02:46:58 AM
I absolutely agree, that "Black lives matter", but always ask myself - "what about other people lives"???. IMHO - they matter as much as "Black lives"....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on June 21, 2020, 08:27:08 PM
Any recent updates on the WA-10 race? I think it's interesting that the two frontrunners so far seem to be black women as it would be nice to finally have some black representation in the Pacific Northwest. I don't know much about their actual stances on any issues, but I do think the optics are interesting given the rise of BLM this past month.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on June 25, 2020, 03:34:48 PM
Any recent updates on the WA-10 race? I think it's interesting that the two frontrunners so far seem to be black women as it would be nice to finally have some black representation in the Pacific Northwest. I don't know much about their actual stances on any issues, but I do think the optics are interesting given the rise of BLM this past month.

That was the case before Beth Doglio entered. I think she's pretty much guaranteed a spot in the general given she's the most progressive candidate and has the Thurston vote sewn up. All the other candidates are from Pierce and I don't really know enough about that portion of the district to say who's going to successfully capture the vote.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Canis on June 25, 2020, 04:40:52 PM
What percentage will Joshua for congress get?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on June 29, 2020, 03:31:35 PM
What percentage will Joshua for congress get?

He's running on some random label (Essential Worker's Party IIRC). I think no more than 3-4% of the vote. He imploded with most Leftists after he deactivated all social media for awhile.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on June 29, 2020, 04:23:10 PM
What percentage will Joshua for congress get?

He's running on some random label (Essential Worker's Party IIRC). I think no more than 3-4% of the vote. He imploded with most Leftists after he deactivated all social media for awhile.
yeah even a good portion of rose twitter jumped on him after that, which is both amazing and faith-restoring



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Damocles on July 06, 2020, 06:59:55 PM
yeah even a good portion of rose twitter jumped on him after that, which is both amazing and faith-restoring

He’s just so breathtakingly stupid.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Left Wing on July 19, 2020, 07:11:04 PM
https://www.thestranger.com/news/2020/07/17/44101127/the-strangers-endorsements-for-the-august-4-2020-primary-election
The stranger released their endorsements


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on July 19, 2020, 08:43:17 PM
https://www.thestranger.com/news/2020/07/17/44101127/the-strangers-endorsements-for-the-august-4-2020-primary-election
The stranger released their endorsements

Wait is intended as a serious article from a serious source? This reads like the lovechild of Buzzfeed and a uniquely profane DSA Twitter account.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on July 19, 2020, 11:51:16 PM
https://www.thestranger.com/news/2020/07/17/44101127/the-strangers-endorsements-for-the-august-4-2020-primary-election
The stranger released their endorsements

Wait is intended as a serious article from a serious source? This reads like the lovechild of Buzzfeed and a uniquely profane DSA Twitter account.

You clearly know nothing of the Stranger.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on July 19, 2020, 11:54:22 PM
https://www.thestranger.com/news/2020/07/17/44101127/the-strangers-endorsements-for-the-august-4-2020-primary-election
The stranger released their endorsements

Wait is intended as a serious article from a serious source? This reads like the lovechild of Buzzfeed and a uniquely profane DSA Twitter account.

You clearly know nothing of the Stranger.

From what I understand, they're a poorly written online magazine with weirdly high permeation in Seattle and extremely fringe views who were unfortunately responsible for putting Cary Moon in the mayoral runoff election.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on July 20, 2020, 12:49:11 AM
https://www.thestranger.com/news/2020/07/17/44101127/the-strangers-endorsements-for-the-august-4-2020-primary-election
The stranger released their endorsements

Wait is intended as a serious article from a serious source? This reads like the lovechild of Buzzfeed and a uniquely profane DSA Twitter account.

You clearly know nothing of the Stranger.

From what I understand, they're a poorly written online magazine with weirdly high permeation in Seattle and extremely fringe views who were unfortunately responsible for putting Cary Moon in the mayoral runoff election.

You're already giving them too much credit. In the past, their endorsements and reporting held sway amongst leftist leaning Seattleites. But that's very largely over. As the quality of the paper declined, Seattle's political scene moved to the left, obviating the need for the kind of publication the Stranger once was (I.e. a left ideological outlet of middling quality). Some of their staff have actually come under fire from progressives in recent years (it's very white and very male dominated).

However, I still do and hope I continue to, enjoy their endorsement editorials. It was a staple for me in high school, growing up as a progressive kid interested in politics.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on July 20, 2020, 01:47:21 PM
Can someone please explain Chirayu Avinash Patel's statement in the voter guide?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on July 20, 2020, 01:58:35 PM
I can't wait for the August primary!
I can't imagine Eyman losing given his name recognition. Maybe Fortunato could've given him a bit of a challenge if it wasn't for COVID and BLM protests.
I think Freed is more likely to come ahead of Eyeman than Fortunato.

The whole Bothell police officer killed by friendly fire thing doesn't do Freed any favors. I voted for Fortunato, fwiw.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on July 20, 2020, 02:16:46 PM
Unfortunately, The Stranger continues to have an absurd amount of sway in Seattle.  They probably have the most power-relative-to-quality ratio of any publication in the United States.

They have a firm grip on 95% of the 18-35 population here as well as all the aging socialists, potheads and creative types.  Your only alternative is the Seattle Times, which requires you to take life seriously, or a ragtag collection of right-leaning outlets that nobody really takes seriously except for the small Republican pockets in Magnolia and Madison.

And what they do with that grip is simply endorse the most extreme candidate in every race and let a bunch of stoners who never went to J-school write Buzzfeed-style endorsement blurbs.  It's incredibly immature but that's how politics is done in this city.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: MAPZZ on July 20, 2020, 02:20:45 PM
Unfortunately, The Stranger continues to have an absurd amount of sway in Seattle.  They probably have the most power-relative-to-quality ratio of any publication in the United States.

They have a firm grip on 95% of the 18-35 population here as well as all the aging socialists, potheads and creative types.  Your only alternative is the Seattle Times, which requires you to take life seriously, or a ragtag collection of right-leaning outlets that nobody really takes seriously except for the small Republican pockets in Magnolia and Madison.

And what they do with that grip is simply endorse the most extreme candidate in every race and let a bunch of stoners who never went to J-school write Buzzfeed-style endorsement blurbs.  It's incredibly immature but that's how politics is done in this city.


The Stranger is a rag for 25-50 something urban libs, but goddamn do you just bleed mad boomer energy. Take the stick out of your ass and play fetch with it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Left Wing on July 20, 2020, 02:24:02 PM
Unfortunately, The Stranger continues to have an absurd amount of sway in Seattle.  They probably have the most power-relative-to-quality ratio of any publication in the United States.

They have a firm grip on 95% of the 18-35 population here as well as all the aging socialists, potheads and creative types.  Your only alternative is the Seattle Times, which requires you to take life seriously, or a ragtag collection of right-leaning outlets that nobody really takes seriously except for the small Republican pockets in Magnolia and Madison.

And what they do with that grip is simply endorse the most extreme candidate in every race and let a bunch of stoners who never went to J-school write Buzzfeed-style endorsement blurbs.  It's incredibly immature but that's how politics is done in this city.
It is pretty hard to read because of how smug it it constantly. I’m at least glad they endorsed Franz and Inslee and not their far-left challengers


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: MAPZZ on July 20, 2020, 03:10:35 PM
On topic: I'm filling out my ballot right now and I'm very tempted to throw a strategic vote to either Tim Eyman or Loren Culp to make for the biggest blue wave possible.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on July 27, 2020, 11:43:40 AM
The Stranger is very cringeworthy and condescending, but saying that it sways 95% of young people here is an absurd exaggeration. Pretty much no one in my social group thinks it’s a quality news source. And let’s not heap praise on the Seattle Times, either.

Anyway, my anecdotal take is that Culp is the most likely to make it to the top two. I’ve seen pretty much exclusively signs for him in the more Republican areas I’ve passed through, with maybe a sign or two for Fortunato, and nothing for Eyman. It doesn’t make much difference, since Inslee is safe, though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Left Wing on July 27, 2020, 12:01:40 PM
Reading the info for Cameron Whitney in my voter pamphlet made me laugh so hard.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on July 27, 2020, 03:42:56 PM
Unfortunately, The Stranger continues to have an absurd amount of sway in Seattle.  They probably have the most power-relative-to-quality ratio of any publication in the United States.

They have a firm grip on 95% of the 18-35 population here as well as all the aging socialists, potheads and creative types.  Your only alternative is the Seattle Times, which requires you to take life seriously, or a ragtag collection of right-leaning outlets that nobody really takes seriously except for the small Republican pockets in Magnolia and Madison.

This is not true. Maybe 20 years ago (or even 10), you could've made a decent argument that it held significant sway among the young... but today that's just not the case.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: MAPZZ on July 28, 2020, 08:40:47 PM
The Stranger is very cringeworthy and condescending, but saying that it sways 95% of young people here is an absurd exaggeration. Pretty much no one in my social group thinks it’s a quality news source. And let’s not heap praise on the Seattle Times, either.

Anyway, my anecdotal take is that Culp is the most likely to make it to the top two. I’ve seen pretty much exclusively signs for him in the more Republican areas I’ve passed through, with maybe a sign or two for Fortunato, and nothing for Eyman. It doesn’t make much difference, since Inslee is safe, though.


You've seen Fortunato signs? Where? I've seen Culp signs everywhere and Freed signs in more urban areas where Culp has less appeal, and a handfull of Garcia and Eyman signs, but nothing else.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on July 30, 2020, 03:08:41 PM
The Stranger is very cringeworthy and condescending, but saying that it sways 95% of young people here is an absurd exaggeration. Pretty much no one in my social group thinks it’s a quality news source. And let’s not heap praise on the Seattle Times, either.

Anyway, my anecdotal take is that Culp is the most likely to make it to the top two. I’ve seen pretty much exclusively signs for him in the more Republican areas I’ve passed through, with maybe a sign or two for Fortunato, and nothing for Eyman. It doesn’t make much difference, since Inslee is safe, though.


You've seen Fortunato signs? Where? I've seen Culp signs everywhere and Freed signs in more urban areas where Culp has less appeal, and a handfull of Garcia and Eyman signs, but nothing else.

I’ve seen a few around the Skykomish River area, though there were more Culp signs.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 03, 2020, 12:20:10 PM
Current ballot return rates by county:



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 03, 2020, 05:19:35 PM
Unfortunately, The Stranger continues to have an absurd amount of sway in Seattle.  They probably have the most power-relative-to-quality ratio of any publication in the United States.

They have a firm grip on 95% of the 18-35 population here as well as all the aging socialists, potheads and creative types.  Your only alternative is the Seattle Times, which requires you to take life seriously, or a ragtag collection of right-leaning outlets that nobody really takes seriously except for the small Republican pockets in Magnolia and Madison.

And what they do with that grip is simply endorse the most extreme candidate in every race and let a bunch of stoners who never went to J-school write Buzzfeed-style endorsement blurbs.  It's incredibly immature but that's how politics is done in this city.

In Magnolia we don't have Republicans like in your neighborhood... In Magnolia we do not have this phenomenon. I don't know who's told you that we have this.

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 04, 2020, 10:16:21 PM
Initial governor results (I'm not typing up all the candidates):

Inslee (D) - 44.65%
Culp (R) - 22.84%
Freed (R) - 8.21%
Eyman (R) - 7.63%
Garcia (R) - 5.05%
Fortunato (R) - 3.34%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Roll Roons on August 04, 2020, 10:32:29 PM
https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/StateExecutive-All.html

In terms of other row offices, Wyman is leading for SoS, and the Democrat is leading for Treasurer.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: cwt on August 04, 2020, 10:52:20 PM
Looks like Lt. Gov. will be a two-Democrat race.

First ever in a statewide race here since switching to the top-two primary, if I'm not mistaken.  

Also, the two moderate/traditional Republican gubernatorial candidates did abysmally. WA GOP continues to fade into irrelevancy.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 04, 2020, 10:56:51 PM
Looks like Lt. Gov. will be a two-Democrat race.

First ever in a statewide race here since switching to the top-two primary, if I'm not mistaken. 

Everything else aside, that should lead to an interesting county map in the general, unless one of them runs away with it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 04, 2020, 11:06:41 PM
Here's the current "turnout" map by county. I put "turnout" in quotes, since more accurately it's a map of current counted ballots as a percent of total registered voters by county and these numbers will change overtime as more ballot dumps come in.

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on August 05, 2020, 12:01:24 AM
Davidson is down 8 so far, and I don’t imagine that will get better for him as more votes come in. Confirms that he’s pretty much toast. Wyman is up 5.5%, will be interesting to see how that changes over the next few days.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: MAPZZ on August 05, 2020, 05:02:25 AM
Surprised at Inslee's big numbers in Island, Skagit, and Clallam counties and his relatively weak numbers in Pierce.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Left Wing on August 05, 2020, 11:03:44 AM
Will Heck or Liias win the Culp vote?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Continential on August 05, 2020, 11:12:37 AM
Looks like Lt. Gov. will be a two-Democrat race.

First ever in a statewide race here since switching to the top-two primary, if I'm not mistaken.  

Also, the two moderate/traditional Republican gubernatorial candidates did abysmally. WA GOP continues to fade into irrelevancy.
Do you think that the Stranger's endorsement of Liias pushed him through?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Left Wing on August 05, 2020, 11:23:35 AM
Joseph Brumbles underperformed by a lot


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 05, 2020, 11:24:09 AM
Looks like Lt. Gov. will be a two-Democrat race.

First ever in a statewide race here since switching to the top-two primary, if I'm not mistaken.  

Also, the two moderate/traditional Republican gubernatorial candidates did abysmally. WA GOP continues to fade into irrelevancy.
Do you think that the Stranger's endorsement of Liias pushed him through?
It's possible, but I think Habib's endorsement also played a big part. The Stranger is definitely influential in Seattle races, but much less so in statewide races.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on August 05, 2020, 11:49:27 AM
Will Heck or Liias win the Culp vote?

My guess would be Heck.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Continential on August 05, 2020, 12:09:39 PM
For the Washington posters, who are you hoping to win, Liias or Heck?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Left Wing on August 05, 2020, 12:13:35 PM
For the Washington posters, who are you hoping to win, Liias or Heck?
Heck. He is more experienced and I agree with him on the issues more. Liias doesn’t seem ready to be governor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 05, 2020, 12:48:42 PM
Here are some maps from the current results. There are a couple things that strike me so far:
1) The Democrats are now consistently winning both King and Jefferson with 70+% of the vote with the obvious exception of the Secretary of State race.
2) The SoS and Treasurer races are almost identical in Eastern Washington. All of the difference between the two comes from the Puget Sound area.
3) Cowlitz County now seems to be a thoroughly (non-Atlas) red county. Grays Harbor and Pacific still seem winnable for a Democrat under the right circumstances, but Cowlitz looks pretty much gone.
4) Liias managed to make the runoff without winning a single county.

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 05, 2020, 06:25:06 PM
There's probably between 700k-1000k ballots left to be counted, so my thinking may be premature, but this primary's composition does not ring to me like a Biden +30 result.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 06, 2020, 01:08:59 AM
For the Washington posters, who are you hoping to win, Liias or Heck?

I'm undecided as of now. I voted for Liias in the primary because it was pretty clear Heck would make the general and I was hoping to have a D vs. D general. Maybe risky, but hey, it paid off.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: MAPZZ on August 06, 2020, 03:37:27 AM
For the Washington posters, who are you hoping to win, Liias or Heck?


Heck has stated that in the event Inslee is appointed to the Biden cabinet and the Lt. Gov steps in, he will act as a seat-filler and not run for re-election. Liiaas has good policy positions, but IMO he's not a very good politician and would probably be a very meh governor, possibly even risking a loss to some future Republican candidate.

So I think I'm going to vote Heck. He'll be a fine and competent governor for a few years, and then we'll have an open seat primary. Possibly one where candidates I can actually get excited for (Like Public Lands commissioner Hillary Franz or AG Bob Ferguson) are on the ballot.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on August 06, 2020, 12:30:30 PM
For the Washington posters, who are you hoping to win, Liias or Heck?

I'm undecided as of now. I voted for Liias in the primary because it was pretty clear Heck would make the general and I was hoping to have a D vs. D general. Maybe risky, but hey, it paid off.

I’m actually in exactly the same boat. I’m undecided as of right now, but strategically voted for Liias in the primary to give him a slot in the top two.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 06, 2020, 03:30:06 PM
For the Washington posters, who are you hoping to win, Liias or Heck?

I'm undecided as of now. I voted for Liias in the primary because it was pretty clear Heck would make the general and I was hoping to have a D vs. D general. Maybe risky, but hey, it paid off.

I’m actually in exactly the same boat. I’m undecided as of right now, but strategically voted for Liias in the primary to give him a slot in the top two.

Same here. Though I think I'll probably end up voting for Heck in the end.

I think there's a decent chance WA-2 ends up D vs D.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 06, 2020, 04:22:57 PM
For the Washington posters, who are you hoping to win, Liias or Heck?

I'm undecided as of now. I voted for Liias in the primary because it was pretty clear Heck would make the general and I was hoping to have a D vs. D general. Maybe risky, but hey, it paid off.

I’m actually in exactly the same boat. I’m undecided as of right now, but strategically voted for Liias in the primary to give him a slot in the top two.

Same here. Though I think I'll probably end up voting for Heck in the end.

I think there's a decent chance WA-2 ends up D vs D.

Lol. I love to think that Liias's entire electoral coalition is just Atlas-style Dems who strategically overthink everything.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 06, 2020, 09:58:12 PM
Republicans still have more votes combined in WA-08 than Dems.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Yellowhammer on August 06, 2020, 10:43:35 PM
This is looking surprisingly good for Republicans


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on August 06, 2020, 11:11:14 PM
The Democrats could pull ahead in WA-08 once more ballots come in, and while primaries here are somewhat predicative of the general election, I'd be stunned if Schrier lost in an environment like this. Probably either means that this particular primary will be a bit off (it happens from time to time), or we're headed for a closer national race than we initially thought. Hard to see Herrera Beutler losing, though, even if the margin tightens a bit. I think moving WA-03 to Lean R was a bit premature anyway.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on August 07, 2020, 10:58:53 AM
You also have to wonder whether the recent developments in Seattle have pushed the electorate to the right.  The left has truly created an abysmal political environment for themselves here.

There's nothing but bad news here, the city has truly gone off the deep end.  We've had CHAZ, defunding, rioting and looting, and the junkie/hoarder encampments crisis, all boosted and defended by the city.  We recently passed a major tax that is explicitly designed to destroy our tax base by forcing Amazon out of the city.  And there are other major economic mismanagement issues that don't get much attention, like two critical failing bridges (W Seattle and Magnolia) that the city refuses to take seriously.  The city is completely held hostage by activists, who generate unflattering news reports every day with their hostile tactics.

I am a hardcore Democrat and I would happily vote for any Republican at the municipal level right now.  I'm certainly not the only person feeling that way.  That doesn't mean I would vote for a Republican for governor or congress, but others may not make that distinction.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Oryxslayer on August 07, 2020, 12:43:26 PM
The Democrats could pull ahead in WA-08 once more ballots come in, and while primaries here are somewhat predicative of the general election, I'd be stunned if Schrier lost in an environment like this. Probably either means that this particular primary will be a bit off (it happens from time to time), or we're headed for a closer national race than we initially thought. Hard to see Herrera Beutler losing, though, even if the margin tightens a bit. I think moving WA-03 to Lean R was a bit premature anyway.

Casual reminder that the current leading republican only has 53K on hand to Schrier's 2.3 Million. This is a similar tale to a lot of other races in the country: the GOP could get competitive if they cared. However, the environment is poor enough that they were pushed into a house campaign of focused targets that abandons the rest. It's only compounded by the fact that many of the potential targets are in suburbs in with pricey media markets, meaning that you need to play wide and raise wheelbarrows of cash to actually get recognition.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: lfromnj on August 07, 2020, 02:07:47 PM
You also have to wonder whether the recent developments in Seattle have pushed the electorate to the right.  The left has truly created an abysmal political environment for themselves here.

There's nothing but bad news here, the city has truly gone off the deep end.  We've had CHAZ, defunding, rioting and looting, and the junkie/hoarder encampments crisis, all boosted and defended by the city.  We recently passed a major tax that is explicitly designed to destroy our tax base by forcing Amazon out of the city.  And there are other major economic mismanagement issues that don't get much attention, like two critical failing bridges (W Seattle and Magnolia) that the city refuses to take seriously.  The city is completely held hostage by activists, who generate unflattering news reports every day with their hostile tactics.

I am a hardcore Democrat and I would happily vote for any Republican at the municipal level right now.  I'm certainly not the only person feeling that way.  That doesn't mean I would vote for a Republican for governor or congress, but others may not make that distinction.

You voting for Kim Wyman this year?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Left Wing on August 07, 2020, 04:01:31 PM
You also have to wonder whether the recent developments in Seattle have pushed the electorate to the right.  The left has truly created an abysmal political environment for themselves here.

There's nothing but bad news here, the city has truly gone off the deep end.  We've had CHAZ, defunding, rioting and looting, and the junkie/hoarder encampments crisis, all boosted and defended by the city.  We recently passed a major tax that is explicitly designed to destroy our tax base by forcing Amazon out of the city.  And there are other major economic mismanagement issues that don't get much attention, like two critical failing bridges (W Seattle and Magnolia) that the city refuses to take seriously.  The city is completely held hostage by activists, who generate unflattering news reports every day with their hostile tactics.

I am a hardcore Democrat and I would happily vote for any Republican at the municipal level right now.  I'm certainly not the only person feeling that way.  That doesn't mean I would vote for a Republican for governor or congress, but others may not make that distinction.

You voting for Kim Wyman this year?

I don’t see how who the secretary is really affects anything other than voting. Wyman has disenfranchised voters.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on August 07, 2020, 05:52:46 PM
You also have to wonder whether the recent developments in Seattle have pushed the electorate to the right.  The left has truly created an abysmal political environment for themselves here.

There's nothing but bad news here, the city has truly gone off the deep end.  We've had CHAZ, defunding, rioting and looting, and the junkie/hoarder encampments crisis, all boosted and defended by the city.  We recently passed a major tax that is explicitly designed to destroy our tax base by forcing Amazon out of the city.  And there are other major economic mismanagement issues that don't get much attention, like two critical failing bridges (W Seattle and Magnolia) that the city refuses to take seriously.  The city is completely held hostage by activists, who generate unflattering news reports every day with their hostile tactics.

I am a hardcore Democrat and I would happily vote for any Republican at the municipal level right now.  I'm certainly not the only person feeling that way.  That doesn't mean I would vote for a Republican for governor or congress, but others may not make that distinction.

Uh, no. The only people who would cite CHOP as a factor in their vote are people with a hate boner for the left, 98% of whom are partisan Republicans. The city hasn’t “abandoned” all other projects, just because it’s also focused on police reform, which is a serious issue that needs attention. Even Democrats who didn’t support CHOP aren’t about to defect to the party of Trump because muh CHOP bad. And even if some would consider voting Republican at the local level, there’s no way people who were otherwise going to vote Democratic in their congressional race would vote for a rubber stamp on Trump. And it’s not like Schrier has been singing Sawant’s praises, either, so the number of people who would have otherwise voted for Schrier switching to a Republican is minuscule at best.

Just because you’re chronically mad at the left doesn’t mean that there are thousands who feel as strongly as you do and would leave the Democratic Party this year with this president up for re-election, especially in a completely different district with a Democrat who hasn’t had any involvement with CHOP on the ballot.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: DabbingSanta on August 07, 2020, 05:58:23 PM
You also have to wonder whether the recent developments in Seattle have pushed the electorate to the right.  The left has truly created an abysmal political environment for themselves here.

There's nothing but bad news here, the city has truly gone off the deep end.  We've had CHAZ, defunding, rioting and looting, and the junkie/hoarder encampments crisis, all boosted and defended by the city.  We recently passed a major tax that is explicitly designed to destroy our tax base by forcing Amazon out of the city.  And there are other major economic mismanagement issues that don't get much attention, like two critical failing bridges (W Seattle and Magnolia) that the city refuses to take seriously.  The city is completely held hostage by activists, who generate unflattering news reports every day with their hostile tactics.

I am a hardcore Democrat and I would happily vote for any Republican at the municipal level right now.  I'm certainly not the only person feeling that way.  That doesn't mean I would vote for a Republican for governor or congress, but others may not make that distinction.

Uh, no. The only people who would cite CHOP as a factor in their vote are people with a hate boner for the left, 98% of whom are partisan Republicans. The city hasn’t “abandoned” all other projects, just because it’s also focused on police reform, which is a serious issue that needs attention. Even Democrats who didn’t support CHOP aren’t about to defect to the party of Trump because muh CHOP bad. And even if some would consider voting Republican at the local level, there’s no way people who were otherwise going to vote Democratic in their congressional race would vote for a rubber stamp on Trump. And it’s not like Schrier has been singing Sawant’s praises, either, so the number of people who would have otherwise voted for Schrier switching to a Republican is minuscule at best.

Just because you’re chronically mad at the left doesn’t mean that there are thousands who feel as strongly as you do and would leave the Democratic Party this year with this president up for re-election, especially in a completely different district with a Democrat who hasn’t had any involvement with CHOP on the ballot.

Let's be honest, I have a much more negative view of these protesters and the left now than I did a few months ago, and I'm sure many share the same opinion. These people are out to destroy America as we know it, and millions will be fleeing to the GOP as a result, especially after Trump is defeated in November.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on August 07, 2020, 07:30:14 PM
You also have to wonder whether the recent developments in Seattle have pushed the electorate to the right.  The left has truly created an abysmal political environment for themselves here.

There's nothing but bad news here, the city has truly gone off the deep end.  We've had CHAZ, defunding, rioting and looting, and the junkie/hoarder encampments crisis, all boosted and defended by the city.  We recently passed a major tax that is explicitly designed to destroy our tax base by forcing Amazon out of the city.  And there are other major economic mismanagement issues that don't get much attention, like two critical failing bridges (W Seattle and Magnolia) that the city refuses to take seriously.  The city is completely held hostage by activists, who generate unflattering news reports every day with their hostile tactics.

I am a hardcore Democrat and I would happily vote for any Republican at the municipal level right now.  I'm certainly not the only person feeling that way.  That doesn't mean I would vote for a Republican for governor or congress, but others may not make that distinction.

Uh, no. The only people who would cite CHOP as a factor in their vote are people with a hate boner for the left, 98% of whom are partisan Republicans. The city hasn’t “abandoned” all other projects, just because it’s also focused on police reform, which is a serious issue that needs attention. Even Democrats who didn’t support CHOP aren’t about to defect to the party of Trump because muh CHOP bad. And even if some would consider voting Republican at the local level, there’s no way people who were otherwise going to vote Democratic in their congressional race would vote for a rubber stamp on Trump. And it’s not like Schrier has been singing Sawant’s praises, either, so the number of people who would have otherwise voted for Schrier switching to a Republican is minuscule at best.

Just because you’re chronically mad at the left doesn’t mean that there are thousands who feel as strongly as you do and would leave the Democratic Party this year with this president up for re-election, especially in a completely different district with a Democrat who hasn’t had any involvement with CHOP on the ballot.

Let's be honest, I have a much more negative view of these protesters and the left now than I did a few months ago, and I'm sure many share the same opinion. These people are out to destroy America as we know it, and millions will be fleeing to the GOP as a result, especially after Trump is defeated in November.


You’re judging all protestors, most of whom are peaceful and want to change the country for the better. And you do know that CHOP was mostly a glorified block party, right? Is that really more offensive to than a sitting president ignoring warning signs for and continually downplaying and spreading misinformation about a pandemic that has killed 160,000 Americans and counting, among many other horrible things he’s done? If so, they’re not “fleeing” to the GOP, because they’d be voting for Trump anyway, and would find some other excuse to justify it. People who hate Trump are not going to flee to the party that created him.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LimoLiberal on August 07, 2020, 07:33:04 PM
Actually WTF happened? Schrier has less than 43% of the vote in WA-08, JHB is leading 56-40 over Long, Inslee is going to dip below 50%. Pretty awful results for WA Democrats.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 07, 2020, 07:53:11 PM
Updates of the maps I posted a couple days ago:

()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on August 07, 2020, 07:56:49 PM
Uh, no. The only people who would cite CHOP as a factor in their vote are people with a hate boner for the left, 98% of whom are partisan Republicans.

Uh, no, the vast majority of people in this city are Democrats, and if you took a poll of this city I would bet the vast majority would also have a strongly negative opinion of CHAZ.  Of course you'd have to promise them anonymity, because everyone is also afraid to speak out against the movement for fear of having their home or business targeted with zero recourse or protection.

Does that factor into their vote?  For most, they're probably still voting Democratic.  But for those on the very rightward edge of that constituency, it's certainly plausible that they may defect to the Republicans after nearly two months of assault on their well-being by Democrats.  You are probably thinking of your social circle, but I am thinking of moderate Democrats in Madrona or Queen Anne.  Egan Orion voters.  People with enough money to own property and build a good life for their families in this city, who have liberal sensibilities and almost always vote Democrat, but don't like watching their city crumble around them.

Read this article and all the small business owners in Capitol Hill quoted in it, and tell me none of them would consider voting R this cycle even if they were traditional D voters.  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/07/us/defund-police-seattle-protests.html

The city hasn’t “abandoned” all other projects, just because it’s also focused on police reform, which is a serious issue that needs attention.

Go do a poll of Magnolia and ask them if they feel abandoned by the city.  They've been begging the city to fix the crumbling Magnolia Bridge for years and the city's current position is "lol they don't need that bridge anyway."  Meanwhile the council last year handed activists a victory in their fight to turn a section of Discovery Park into a homeless shelter, not for any logical reason (it's a terrible location for a shelter) but just to stick it to the rich people who live there.

Even Democrats who didn’t support CHOP aren’t about to defect to the party of Trump because muh CHOP bad.

There's this thing called a "swing voter" who is somewhere in between the two parties and may shift from one to the other based on extraordinary events.  Seeing the left in this city STRONGLY support CHAZ and all the destruction and mayhem over the last two months is exactly the kind of extraordinary event that would cause swing voters to shift their votes.

And even if some would consider voting Republican at the local level, there’s no way people who were otherwise going to vote Democratic in their congressional race would vote for a rubber stamp on Trump.

I addressed this in my comment.

And it’s not like Schrier has been singing Sawant’s praises, either, so the number of people who would have otherwise voted for Schrier switching to a Republican is minuscule at best.

People don't pay attention, people don't care.  You'd probably find more hatred for Joe Biden and the Democratic Party at CHAZ than you would at a MAGA rally, yet the Democrats get blamed for it, because it's now trendy to call yourself a Democrat while simultaneously making your entire political identity all about hating the Democratic Party.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: cwt on August 07, 2020, 08:01:04 PM
Actually WTF happened? Schrier has less than 43% of the vote in WA-08, JHB is leading 56-40 over Long, Inslee is going to dip below 50%. Pretty awful results for WA Democrats.

Also, Kim Wyman with a majority of the statewide vote.

She got more total votes than Inslee as of right now (1,009,382 to 1,001,363).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 07, 2020, 08:45:26 PM
The city hasn’t “abandoned” all other projects, just because it’s also focused on police reform, which is a serious issue that needs attention.

Go do a poll of Magnolia and ask them if they feel abandoned by the city.  They've been begging the city to fix the crumbling Magnolia Bridge for years and the city's current position is "lol they don't need that bridge anyway."  Meanwhile the council last year handed activists a victory in their fight to turn a section of Discovery Park into a homeless shelter, not for any logical reason (it's a terrible location for a shelter) but just to stick it to the rich people who live there.

As possibly Atlas's only resident Magnolian, I have to jump in here, and I tend to agree with MacArthur here in general, but I don't necessarily draw links between that sense of abandonment with issues like police reform. Magnolia is covered in BLM signs right now, and from the conversations I've had with my neighbors, I don't think anyone really ties calls for police reform to a lack of commitment to fix the Magnolia bridge or figure out what to do with the homeless population in the area. If anything, the issue that seems to come up in tandem with the Magnolia Bridge is the West Seattle Bridge and a sense of West Seattle's bridge of death being given top priority over us, since that's much more of a one-to-one comparison than with other things that might require funding.

My immediate neighbors are mostly middle-aged, with some borderline Karens and even some former Republicans. Absolutely none of them are considering moving away from the Democratic party as a result of the protests. If anything, they attribute the deaths at the CHOP and the rise of Sawantism more generally to the same "populist" tide that brought up Trump. I've also heard lines like "it's terrible that Sawant has tried to make the George Floyd protests all about her." It's pretty common to hear "both sides" sentiments from this crowd, saying that the Anarchists and the Trumpees just need to fight it out somewhere else. But again, absolutely none of them are willing to give the Republicans the time of day because, while they do not see most Democrats as being in league with Sawant and the anarchists, they absolutely do see random local average Republicans (i.e. Jason Rantz and John Curley) as being in 100% lock step with Trump.

But just to close because we're talking about Magnolia and you hit on one of my key local issues, Magnolia is absolutely fed up with the city council in a completely non-partisan way for deciding that all of Magnolia is just Magnolia Boulevard and that we can somehow therefore fix all of our own problems or something. I mean, for pete's sake, look at the regional transit map - we're literally not even on the map:

()

And this is after McGinn launched his "road diet" on Nickerson, we lost access to Highway 99 via Western Ave when they tore down the viaduct, and they shut down the 15th Ave monorail back in 2006 only to decide we were getting Link after all, but it would take until 2030+ to actually be up-and-running. Next we'll lose the Magnolia Bridge after some minor earthquake, and there'll literally be two roads into and out of a neighborhood of over 20,000 people. There's absolutely no way this will end well, and I see pretty much nobody on either side of the Democrat-leftist divide really caring about it except for the very local politicians with no power to actually enact anything.

It's all part of this grand scheme to try to get people to commute by bike, I'm sure. Of course, nobody realizes that Magnolia is surrounded by incredibly steep hills on every side and nobody is going to want their commute home to end with a strenuous workout.

Thank you for attending my Ted Talk.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on August 07, 2020, 09:41:30 PM
There's absolutely no way this will end well, and I see pretty much nobody on either side of the Democrat-leftist divide really caring about it except for the very local politicians with no power to actually enact anything.

It's all part of this grand scheme to try to get people to commute by bike, I'm sure. Of course, nobody realizes that Magnolia is surrounded by incredibly steep hills on every side and nobody is going to want their commute home to end with a strenuous workout.

FWIW, I live in Capitol Hill and I care about you guys.  I love walking around Magnolia and looking at all the beautiful houses and old trees and big flowery gardens.  Are y'all still dealing with a rat infestation or did you get that worked out?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party on August 07, 2020, 10:01:51 PM
Actually WTF happened? Schrier has less than 43% of the vote in WA-08, JHB is leading 56-40 over Long, Inslee is going to dip below 50%. Pretty awful results for WA Democrats.

Also, Kim Wyman with a majority of the statewide vote.

She got more total votes than Inslee as of right now (1,009,382 to 1,001,363).

Wow, Wyman should run in 2024; she'd have a fighting chance.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Roll Roons on August 07, 2020, 10:07:02 PM
Actually WTF happened? Schrier has less than 43% of the vote in WA-08, JHB is leading 56-40 over Long, Inslee is going to dip below 50%. Pretty awful results for WA Democrats.

Also, Kim Wyman with a majority of the statewide vote.

She got more total votes than Inslee as of right now (1,009,382 to 1,001,363).

Wow, Wyman should run in 2024; she'd have a fighting chance.

Idk. The Governorship in Washington has always been Lucy and the football for Republicans. They've gotten close several times (2004, 2008, 2012) but never actually managed to make it happen. Same deal with Oregon.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: S019 on August 07, 2020, 10:12:42 PM
Actually WTF happened? Schrier has less than 43% of the vote in WA-08, JHB is leading 56-40 over Long, Inslee is going to dip below 50%. Pretty awful results for WA Democrats.

Also, Kim Wyman with a majority of the statewide vote.

She got more total votes than Inslee as of right now (1,009,382 to 1,001,363).

Wow, Wyman should run in 2024; she'd have a fighting chance.

Idk. The Governorship in Washington has always been Lucy and the football for Republicans. They've gotten close several times (2004, 2008, 2012) but never actually managed to make it happen. Same deal with Oregon.

Wyman could honestly pull it off if she isn't facing Inslee or Denny Heck, she's definitely a strong candidate, but so was McKenna, and he lost in 2012, it'd surely be close though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on August 07, 2020, 10:22:36 PM
Wow, I suppose I wouldn’t know anything about politics if it weren’t for GMA explaining concepts like “swing voters” to me ::). The number of people who would honestly vote Republican because of CHOP is minuscule, and I don’t buy that they wouldn’t come up with a different excuse if not for CHOP. I actually know some people who aren’t as progressive as I am here, and their views are a little more nuanced than “CHOP bad, Sawant bad, progressives bad.” It’s a little more like “I understand that people are angry, but I don’t think this is an effective or productive way of expressing their anger, and I don’t think reducing funding by 50% is particularly feasible, nor will it resolve issues of racial profiling. We should train police officers in de-escalation, etc.”

As for Wyman running in 2024, she’s probably the best candidate Republicans could run (assuming she wins this year), but she wouldn’t beat Inslee (doubt she’d run against him), and I’m not sure which opponents she would beat (Ferguson wouldn’t be an easy opponent, either.)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Roll Roons on August 07, 2020, 10:24:12 PM
Actually WTF happened? Schrier has less than 43% of the vote in WA-08, JHB is leading 56-40 over Long, Inslee is going to dip below 50%. Pretty awful results for WA Democrats.

Also, Kim Wyman with a majority of the statewide vote.

She got more total votes than Inslee as of right now (1,009,382 to 1,001,363).

Wow, Wyman should run in 2024; she'd have a fighting chance.

Idk. The Governorship in Washington has always been Lucy and the football for Republicans. They've gotten close several times (2004, 2008, 2012) but never actually managed to make it happen. Same deal with Oregon.

Wyman could honestly pull it off if she isn't facing Inslee or Denny Heck, she's definitely a strong candidate, but so was McKenna, and he lost in 2012, it'd surely be close though.

She is a great candidate and would keep it close, but for whatever reason, Washington is willing to elect Republicans to some statewide offices but never the governorship. Maybe they could have done it if gubernatorial elections were in midterm years rather than presidential.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: MT Treasurer on August 07, 2020, 10:25:44 PM
A Wyman run for governor would work out about as well as Jim Hood's campaign for governor. WA might be fine with Wyman as a low-profile and uncontroversial SoS (although we’ll see if she actually wins reelection), but she wouldn’t win a more partisan gubernatorial election, especially in a presidential year.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 08, 2020, 12:22:45 PM
There's absolutely no way this will end well, and I see pretty much nobody on either side of the Democrat-leftist divide really caring about it except for the very local politicians with no power to actually enact anything.

It's all part of this grand scheme to try to get people to commute by bike, I'm sure. Of course, nobody realizes that Magnolia is surrounded by incredibly steep hills on every side and nobody is going to want their commute home to end with a strenuous workout.

FWIW, I live in Capitol Hill and I care about you guys.  I love walking around Magnolia and looking at all the beautiful houses and old trees and big flowery gardens.  Are y'all still dealing with a rat infestation or did you get that worked out?

As far as I know, it's been fixed. We never really had that many rats in our area and I was kind of surprised to see those headlines at the time. The main pest on my block has always been ants. Also, I had no idea you lived in core Sawantist territory. Kind of explains some of your political views, I suppose. :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on August 09, 2020, 02:06:18 AM
There's absolutely no way this will end well, and I see pretty much nobody on either side of the Democrat-leftist divide really caring about it except for the very local politicians with no power to actually enact anything.

It's all part of this grand scheme to try to get people to commute by bike, I'm sure. Of course, nobody realizes that Magnolia is surrounded by incredibly steep hills on every side and nobody is going to want their commute home to end with a strenuous workout.

FWIW, I live in Capitol Hill and I care about you guys.  I love walking around Magnolia and looking at all the beautiful houses and old trees and big flowery gardens.  Are y'all still dealing with a rat infestation or did you get that worked out?

As far as I know, it's been fixed. We never really had that many rats in our area and I was kind of surprised to see those headlines at the time. The main pest on my block has always been ants. Also, I had no idea you lived in core Sawantist territory. Kind of explains some of your political views, I suppose. :P

My political views have been consistent for years.  I have a special vitriol for Sawant because she and her acolytes directly affect my life in so many ways.  Local politics is always much more impactful.  Trump isn't setting up junkie encampments in Miller Park.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on August 09, 2020, 12:57:37 PM
I don't buy WA-08 having any chance of flipping, but LOL at people who thought WA-3 could flip


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: MAPZZ on August 11, 2020, 02:31:43 AM
There's absolutely no way this will end well, and I see pretty much nobody on either side of the Democrat-leftist divide really caring about it except for the very local politicians with no power to actually enact anything.

It's all part of this grand scheme to try to get people to commute by bike, I'm sure. Of course, nobody realizes that Magnolia is surrounded by incredibly steep hills on every side and nobody is going to want their commute home to end with a strenuous workout.

FWIW, I live in Capitol Hill and I care about you guys.  I love walking around Magnolia and looking at all the beautiful houses and old trees and big flowery gardens.  Are y'all still dealing with a rat infestation or did you get that worked out?

As far as I know, it's been fixed. We never really had that many rats in our area and I was kind of surprised to see those headlines at the time. The main pest on my block has always been ants. Also, I had no idea you lived in core Sawantist territory. Kind of explains some of your political views, I suppose. :P

My political views have been consistent for years.  I have a special vitriol for Sawant because she and her acolytes directly affect my life in so many ways.  Local politics is always much more impactful.  Trump isn't setting up junkie encampments in Miller Park.

The idea that political movements I identify with and the votes they cast make your day-to-day life worse and have made you the red-in-the-face angry NIMBY WASP you are today, fills me with so much glee.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Left Wing on August 11, 2020, 07:00:11 AM
There's absolutely no way this will end well, and I see pretty much nobody on either side of the Democrat-leftist divide really caring about it except for the very local politicians with no power to actually enact anything.

It's all part of this grand scheme to try to get people to commute by bike, I'm sure. Of course, nobody realizes that Magnolia is surrounded by incredibly steep hills on every side and nobody is going to want their commute home to end with a strenuous workout.

FWIW, I live in Capitol Hill and I care about you guys.  I love walking around Magnolia and looking at all the beautiful houses and old trees and big flowery gardens.  Are y'all still dealing with a rat infestation or did you get that worked out?

As far as I know, it's been fixed. We never really had that many rats in our area and I was kind of surprised to see those headlines at the time. The main pest on my block has always been ants. Also, I had no idea you lived in core Sawantist territory. Kind of explains some of your political views, I suppose. :P

My political views have been consistent for years.  I have a special vitriol for Sawant because she and her acolytes directly affect my life in so many ways.  Local politics is always much more impactful.  Trump isn't setting up junkie encampments in Miller Park.

The idea that political movements I identify with and the votes they cast make your day-to-day life worse and have made you the red-in-the-face angry NIMBY WASP you are today, fills me with so much glee.

Sawant is a nimby


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 11, 2020, 03:01:51 PM
There's absolutely no way this will end well, and I see pretty much nobody on either side of the Democrat-leftist divide really caring about it except for the very local politicians with no power to actually enact anything.

It's all part of this grand scheme to try to get people to commute by bike, I'm sure. Of course, nobody realizes that Magnolia is surrounded by incredibly steep hills on every side and nobody is going to want their commute home to end with a strenuous workout.

FWIW, I live in Capitol Hill and I care about you guys.  I love walking around Magnolia and looking at all the beautiful houses and old trees and big flowery gardens.  Are y'all still dealing with a rat infestation or did you get that worked out?

As far as I know, it's been fixed. We never really had that many rats in our area and I was kind of surprised to see those headlines at the time. The main pest on my block has always been ants. Also, I had no idea you lived in core Sawantist territory. Kind of explains some of your political views, I suppose. :P

My political views have been consistent for years.  I have a special vitriol for Sawant because she and her acolytes directly affect my life in so many ways.  Local politics is always much more impactful.  Trump isn't setting up junkie encampments in Miller Park.

The idea that political movements I identify with and the votes they cast make your day-to-day life worse and have made you the red-in-the-face angry NIMBY WASP you are today, fills me with so much glee.

Sawant is a nimby

Sawant is many things, but that is not one of them.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 11, 2020, 07:41:46 PM
So... Larsen's leftist primary opponent has not conceded and has been catching up on Republican Hazelo in WA-2. He's currently behind around 1,800 votes. No idea if there's enough ballots left to make that up - there are still 14,000 ballots out in Skagit, but I haven't seen a breakdown by CD - but it'd be nice to get another D vs. D election in November.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 12, 2020, 01:58:21 PM
So... Larsen's leftist primary opponent has not conceded and has been catching up on Republican Hazelo in WA-2. He's currently behind around 1,800 votes. No idea if there's enough ballots left to make that up - there are still 14,000 ballots out in Skagit, but I haven't seen a breakdown by CD - but it'd be nice to get another D vs. D election in November.

I don't think it's possible, too bad.

Without conversation devolving back to the argument over CHOP's impact on the electorate, I'm really still surprised by the relative poor performance across the ballot of Ds. The 2018 primary results were pretty indicative of the GE (if anything there was a bit of a drop for Ds). I'm not sure how this year's 53% turnout compares, but that seems pretty solid for a primary.

Thoughts?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on August 12, 2020, 02:09:07 PM
So... Larsen's leftist primary opponent has not conceded and has been catching up on Republican Hazelo in WA-2. He's currently behind around 1,800 votes. No idea if there's enough ballots left to make that up - there are still 14,000 ballots out in Skagit, but I haven't seen a breakdown by CD - but it'd be nice to get another D vs. D election in November.

I don't think it's possible, too bad.

Without conversation devolving back to the argument over CHOP's impact on the electorate, I'm really still surprised by the relative poor performance across the ballot of Ds. The 2018 primary results were pretty indicative of the GE (if anything there was a bit of a drop for Ds). I'm not sure how this year's 53% turnout compares, but that seems pretty solid for a primary.

Thoughts?

Best explanation I have is that it's a combination of 2018 having lots of competitive Dem primaries and 2020 having a lot of competitive Republican primaries plus just still having a lot of non-voters. We can expect probably around a million additional votes to be cast in November, and I have to imagine that, this being Washington, those will probably break at least somewhat disproportionately Dem.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 12, 2020, 03:38:02 PM
I think I discovered the culprit. At 53%, this year’s primary turnout is far and away the highest ever. It looks like everyone participated at a higher rate, with Rs benefiting.
It was 41% in 2018 and 35% in 2016. If you take 2016’s GE turnout of 78.8% and apply it to the current number of registered voters, you get 3.6 million votes. So we can expect roughly another 1.2 million votes to manifest in the 2020 GE.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Logical on August 12, 2020, 09:17:40 PM
Dems look toast in LD19. In LD29 Sharlett Mena is only 153 votes away from Steve Kirby, she was down 5% on election night. Only ~750 ballots left in Pierce though so lt looks unlikely that she'll catch up.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: MAPZZ on August 15, 2020, 07:13:09 PM
I think I discovered the culprit. At 53%, this year’s primary turnout is far and away the highest ever. It looks like everyone participated at a higher rate, with Rs benefiting.
It was 41% in 2018 and 35% in 2016. If you take 2016’s GE turnout of 78.8% and apply it to the current number of registered voters, you get 3.6 million votes. So we can expect roughly another 1.2 million votes to manifest in the 2020 GE.



It seems that would especially hurt in places like southwest WA where lots of Republican voters are young, uneducated, and not particularly likely to show up for midterms whereas a lot of Democrats there are old retired union-types that are dying out but still vote consistently in midterms.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 17, 2020, 12:40:27 PM
I think I discovered the culprit. At 53%, this year’s primary turnout is far and away the highest ever. It looks like everyone participated at a higher rate, with Rs benefiting.
It was 41% in 2018 and 35% in 2016. If you take 2016’s GE turnout of 78.8% and apply it to the current number of registered voters, you get 3.6 million votes. So we can expect roughly another 1.2 million votes to manifest in the 2020 GE.



It seems that would especially hurt in places like southwest WA where lots of Republican voters are young, uneducated, and not particularly likely to show up for midterms whereas a lot of Democrats there are old retired union-types that are dying out but still vote consistently in midterms.

There are young people in SW WA!? ;)
I think we'll see a pretty noticable D shift from primary to GE this year, unlike in past years. Unless WA is suddenly swinging away from Ds (that seems pretty unlikely to me, given just about every demographic and population trend in the state).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 21, 2020, 03:47:17 PM
I guess Joshua Freed (R), who got third (lol at 9%) in the Gov race is going to try and run a write-in campaign for LG. From what I've read, apparently Rs aren't too thrilled that he's the one doing it.

WA does have very liberal write-in laws, so write-ins for 'Josh', 'Joshua', or 'Freed' would be counted for him.

Even with that, he has a 0% change of succeeding. Honestly, the most intriguing part of this endeavor is why the Ds didn't attempt this in 2016 for the Treasurer race. To avoid the inevitable extra embarrassment?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 31, 2020, 06:57:22 PM
A quick comparison of Inslee's percent in the 2020 primary vs in the 2016 general by city in King County:

City20202016Change
Overall68.5%67.7%D +0.8
Auburn45.3%52.7%R +7.4
Bellevue64.9%61.7%D +3.2
Bothell61.0%59.3%D +1.7
Burien64.5%66.0%R +1.5
Clyde Hill54.2%45.4%D +8.8
Covington44.8%47.8%R +3.0
Des Moines56.7%59.7%R +3.0
Enumclaw33.2%42.5%R +9.3
Federal Way52.6%58.3%R +5.7
Issaquah66.5%59.6%D +6.9
Kenmore66.6%64.0%D +2.6
Kent53.5%59.2%R +5.7
Kirkland64.9%61.6%D +3.3
Lake Forest Park74.5%72.1%D +2.4
Medina56.3%46.9%D +9.4
Mercer Island70.2%62.5%D +7.7
Maple Valley45.4%45.3%D +0.1
Newcastle62.0%56.4%D +5.6
Normandy Park60.4%56.0%D +4.4
North Bend54.7%52.2%D +2.5
Redmond68.5%65.5%D +3.0
Renton59.6%63.1%R +3.5
Sammamish64.1%56.9%D +7.2
Seatac57.7%65.8%R +8.1
Snoqualmie58.2%51.5%D +6.7
Shoreline72.6%71.6%D +1.0
Tukwila64.3%72.3%R +8.0
Woodinville61.2%57.6%D +3.6
Yarrow Point59.6%49.6%D +10.0
Seattle (All)83.9%82.5%D +1.4
Seattle, 11th LD81.9%84.2%R +2.3
Seattle, 32nd LD79.3%78.3%D +1.0
Seattle, 34th LD79.8%77.9%D +1.9
Seattle, 36th LD83.8%80.3%D +3.5
Seattle, 37th LD84.6%87.8%R +3.2
Seattle, 43rd LD87.3%85.9%D +1.4
Seattle, 46th LD82.8%80.6%D +2.2

Seems to be a huge income shift going on.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on August 31, 2020, 10:09:38 PM
This comparison is interesting, but wouldn't a primary to primary comparison be better as it looks like minority turnout is driving the numbers in much of South King County, which is just generally lower in primaries.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on September 01, 2020, 08:15:45 AM
This comparison is interesting, but wouldn't a primary to primary comparison be better as it looks like minority turnout is driving the numbers in much of South King County, which is just generally lower in primaries.

I was generally operating under a premise that the 2016 General was a mini-realignment, and so previous contests to that might not be as representative (plus there were slightly more Dems on the ballot in 2016), but I can put that together real fast.

Here is the comparison to the Inslee's 2016 primary. The results are similar (corr = 0.82), but somewhat less extreme, especially when looking at the trend rather than swing, which might help account for the difference in number of other Dem candidates.

City20202016SwingTrend
Overall68.564.1D +4.4D +0.0
Auburn45.344.5D +0.8R +3.6
Bellevue64.956.7D +8.2D +3.8
Bothell61.055.4D +5.6D +1.2
Burien64.558.8D +5.7D +1.3
Clyde Hill54.244.8D +9.4D +5.0
Covington44.840.1D +4.7D +0.3
Des Moines56.753.6D +3.1R +1.3
Enumclaw33.238.2R +5.0R +9.4
Federal Way52.649.9D +2.7R +1.7
Issaquah66.555.7D +10.8D +6.4
Kenmore66.660.1D +6.5D +2.1
Kent53.549.0D +4.5D +0.1
Kirkland64.958.6D +6.3D +1.9
Lake Forest Park74.571.6D +2.9R +1.5
Medina56.347.4D +8.9D +4.5
Mercer Island70.261.6D +8.6D +4.2
Maple Valley45.438.8D +6.6D +2.2
Newcastle62.054.0D +8.0D +3.6
Normandy Park60.452.2D +8.2D +3.8
North Bend54.747.2D +7.5D +3.1
Redmond68.560.3D +8.2D +3.8
Renton59.655.1D +4.5D +0.1
Sammamish64.153.6D +10.5D +6.1
Seatac57.751.7D +6.0D +1.6
Snoqualmie58.248.5D +9.7D +5.3
Shoreline72.667.8D +4.8D +0.4
Tukwila64.361.1D +3.2R +1.2
Woodinville61.256.5D +4.7D +0.3
Yarrow Point59.646.2D +13.4D +9.0
Seattle (All)83.979.4D +4.5D +0.1
Seattle,  11th LD81.977.7D +4.2R +0.2
Seattle,  32nd LD79.374.4D +4.9D +0.5
Seattle,  34th LD79.874.0D +5.8D +1.4
Seattle,  36th LD83.878.1D +5.7D +1.3
Seattle,  37th LD84.683.1D +1.5R +2.9
Seattle,  43rd LD87.383.5D +3.8R +0.6
Seattle,  46th LD82.878.1D +4.7D +0.3


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on September 01, 2020, 11:23:32 PM
Thank you these results feel a little less extreme especially in minority heavy areas.

It does make me wonder... are minority voters just not voting as much, or actually swinging Republican? Or are white voters in these areas increasing turnout? Or have voters across racial lines swung Republican in these South King County areas?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on September 09, 2020, 03:55:11 PM
In my recent summer travels across Western Washington, I've been shocked by the sheer number of Culp yard signs... based on the highly scientific yard sign index, Culp is looking at scoring an impressive victory over Inslee!

But honestly, I have seen more Culp signs than Trump or Biden signs combined! Only in Snohomish County does someone else seem to match his numbers... Cassandra Lopez-Shaw running for (I had to look this up) Superior Court Judge.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on September 16, 2020, 08:23:55 PM
The initiative to Recall Sawant is allowed to move forward.

4 of the 6 charges were allowed to stand.  The two related to her encouraging illegal activity through her rhetoric around CHAZ were removed, but those were the two weakest charges anyway.

The four charges are:
  • Sawant relinquished her independence by allowing Socialist Alternative to make hiring/firing decisions in her office
  • Sawant abused her position by using public resources for her personal political campaigns
  • Sawant violated the governor's COVID statute and abused her office to unlock city hall and encourage protesters to occupy it
  • Sawant committed a felony by revealing Mayor Durkan's home address, which was protected due to death threats she had received, and encouraging protesters to march to Durkan's home.

Some choice quotes from the judge's decision (https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Mcu5HptrEOOq6rt9Da2AV29AcufNLP1D/view):

Quote
This document supplies facts that the Councilmember had to persuade the [Seattle Executive Committee of the Socialist Alternative party] to concur with her decision to fire an employee, not simply ask advice.  This is delegation of a decision to an outside body, even if the Councilmember is also a member of the outside body.  These facts show actual knowledge of facts indicating that the Councilmember intended to commit an unlawful act, a breach of ethics.

Also delicious: the documents also show that Sawant delegates her council votes to SocAlt.  The Sawant lawyers insist that she doesn't do this.  This is delicious because when I've confronted SocAlt members in real life on this issue, their talking point is, "yes she does delegate her votes to SocAlt, but that's just normal politics, it's no different from Democrats who delegate their votes to Nancy Pelosi."

Quote
The allegations are factually sufficient, and establish a prima facie case of misfeasance, malfeasance, and violation of the oath of office under the cited Seattle Municipal Code of Ethics.

Quote
These are actual resources being spent to promote an initiative, which is prohibited by law, and not a de minimis use incidental to the delivery of message.  These facts are from Councilmember's own words and from the City's documents.  These facts show actual knowledge of facts indicating that the Councilmember intended to commit an unlawful act and form a basis of knowledge of the allegations.

The Councilmember argues that under the law, a misuse of City resources can only occur after a ballot initiative is filed.  This Court disagrees for two reasons:  That is not what the statute says, and the Seattle Municipal Code even more broadly prohibits the conduct here.

Quote
City Hall was locked to the public precisely BECAUSE of the pandemic, and because of the public health Proclamations of the Governor.  Thus, her alleged act of unlocking the building closed due to the pandemic and letting in the protestors inferentially proves the intent needed to allow the charge/allegation to go forward.

Quote
The address confidentiality program is found in RCW 40,24,030 and those who criminally violate it are guilty of the class C felont of harassment.  These facts show actual knowledge of facts indicating that the COuncilmember intended to commit an unlawful act.

*chef's kiss*

it's worth noting that these allegations are far from the worst things Sawant has ever done.  They are simply the most illegal things she's done.  Like Trump, Sawant does hundreds of horrible things every year, and only sometimes stumbles into the realm of illegality because she's so used to suffering no consequences for her behavior.  It would be nice if she would suffer consequences for the other hundreds of horrible things she says and does, but unfortunately last year she was able to get away with all of them by just screaming "MY OPPONENT IS LITERALLY JEFF BEZOS" over and over and over.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: NewYorkExpress on September 19, 2020, 08:01:50 PM
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/washington-gov-jay-inslee-gives-maggot-infested-apples-to-wildfire-victims-regrets-mistake (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/washington-gov-jay-inslee-gives-maggot-infested-apples-to-wildfire-victims-regrets-mistake)

Quote
Washington state is known for its apples -- but Gov. Jay Inslee didn't appear to do the popular fruit any public relations favors last week.


The Democrat, in an effort to bring comfort to communities in Eastern Washington devastated by recent wildfires, unknowingly and illegally gifted baskets of apples from his orchard in Olympia that were later found to be infested with apple maggot larvae, according to reports.

Thurston County, where Inslee lives, is an apple maggot quarantine area --meaning it was illegal for Inslee to bring homegrown apples from that area to a non-quarantine area like Douglas County, according to Q13 FOX in Seattle.

.....

A basket of apples the governor gave to a retirement home in Omak, Wash., later tested positive for apple maggot larvae so officials were desperately trying to find the basket he left at a church in Bridgeport, Wash., but no one knows what happened to it, according to the station.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Left Wing on October 06, 2020, 11:21:45 AM
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/how-to-watch-gov-jay-inslee-and-challenger-loren-culps-first-debate-oct-7/ (https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/how-to-watch-gov-jay-inslee-and-challenger-loren-culps-first-debate-oct-7/)
Inslee-Culp Debate tomorrow


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GALeftist on October 06, 2020, 11:26:53 AM
The initiative to Recall Sawant is allowed to move forward.

4 of the 6 charges were allowed to stand.  The two related to her encouraging illegal activity through her rhetoric around CHAZ were removed, but those were the two weakest charges anyway.

The four charges are:
  • Sawant relinquished her independence by allowing Socialist Alternative to make hiring/firing decisions in her office
  • Sawant abused her position by using public resources for her personal political campaigns
  • Sawant violated the governor's COVID statute and abused her office to unlock city hall and encourage protesters to occupy it
  • Sawant committed a felony by revealing Mayor Durkan's home address, which was protected due to death threats she had received, and encouraging protesters to march to Durkan's home.

Some choice quotes from the judge's decision (https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Mcu5HptrEOOq6rt9Da2AV29AcufNLP1D/view):

Quote
This document supplies facts that the Councilmember had to persuade the [Seattle Executive Committee of the Socialist Alternative party] to concur with her decision to fire an employee, not simply ask advice.  This is delegation of a decision to an outside body, even if the Councilmember is also a member of the outside body.  These facts show actual knowledge of facts indicating that the Councilmember intended to commit an unlawful act, a breach of ethics.

Also delicious: the documents also show that Sawant delegates her council votes to SocAlt.  The Sawant lawyers insist that she doesn't do this.  This is delicious because when I've confronted SocAlt members in real life on this issue, their talking point is, "yes she does delegate her votes to SocAlt, but that's just normal politics, it's no different from Democrats who delegate their votes to Nancy Pelosi."

Quote
The allegations are factually sufficient, and establish a prima facie case of misfeasance, malfeasance, and violation of the oath of office under the cited Seattle Municipal Code of Ethics.

Quote
These are actual resources being spent to promote an initiative, which is prohibited by law, and not a de minimis use incidental to the delivery of message.  These facts are from Councilmember's own words and from the City's documents.  These facts show actual knowledge of facts indicating that the Councilmember intended to commit an unlawful act and form a basis of knowledge of the allegations.

The Councilmember argues that under the law, a misuse of City resources can only occur after a ballot initiative is filed.  This Court disagrees for two reasons:  That is not what the statute says, and the Seattle Municipal Code even more broadly prohibits the conduct here.

Quote
City Hall was locked to the public precisely BECAUSE of the pandemic, and because of the public health Proclamations of the Governor.  Thus, her alleged act of unlocking the building closed due to the pandemic and letting in the protestors inferentially proves the intent needed to allow the charge/allegation to go forward.

Quote
The address confidentiality program is found in RCW 40,24,030 and those who criminally violate it are guilty of the class C felont of harassment.  These facts show actual knowledge of facts indicating that the COuncilmember intended to commit an unlawful act.

*chef's kiss*

it's worth noting that these allegations are far from the worst things Sawant has ever done.  They are simply the most illegal things she's done.  Like Trump, Sawant does hundreds of horrible things every year, and only sometimes stumbles into the realm of illegality because she's so used to suffering no consequences for her behavior.  It would be nice if she would suffer consequences for the other hundreds of horrible things she says and does, but unfortunately last year she was able to get away with all of them by just screaming "MY OPPONENT IS LITERALLY JEFF BEZOS" over and over and over.

Bookmarking all this for when Sawant inevitably survives


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Left Wing on October 07, 2020, 10:29:42 PM




Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Left Wing on October 07, 2020, 11:06:43 PM
Inslee won the debate. He didn’t excel but Culp dug himself into a hole by denying global warming. Inslee basically just tied Culp to Trump the entire debate and that’s all he really needs to do.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: cwt on October 13, 2020, 10:35:24 PM
New SurveyUSA/KING-5 poll (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=544b4e4e-7820-4e83-b51a-41423dda3b8a&c=28):

Biden 55%, Trump 34%, Undecided 5%

Inslee 54%, Culp 40%, Undecided 6%

Heck 31%, Liias 18%, Undecided 52%

Wyman 45%, Tarleton 40%, Undecided 14%

Referendum 90: Approve 52%, Reject 34%, Undecided 14%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Kamala’s side hoe on October 14, 2020, 01:24:35 PM
New Poll: Washington President by Survey USA on 2020-10-12 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5320201012019)

Summary: D: 55%, R: 34%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=544b4e4e-7820-4e83-b51a-41423dda3b8a)

Crosstabs suggest that Inslee-Trump Latinos and Culp-Biden Asians are a thing. They also suggest that Metro Seattle gubernatorial debate watchers thought Culp the anti-masker won the debate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Common Sense Atlantan on October 16, 2020, 10:38:27 AM
I think Kim Wyman loses. The undecideds will break hard for Tarleton.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on October 20, 2020, 01:56:42 AM
As a reference point, I voted for Tarleton.  There are no good Republicans.  Anyone calling themselves a Republican deserve to be kicked out of office.  Burn their party to the ground and salt the Earth.  The entire party is built on an utterly depraved and corrupt apparatus and most of Wyman's support is coming from a base of Washington Republicans who are fed a non-stop firehose of misinformation and downright lies through a variety of channels that have been intentionally cultivated by Republicans to disguise their duplicitous, malicious, partisan intent.  That's what the Republican Party is and Wyman is OUT with the rest of her accursed party.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Figueira on October 22, 2020, 02:04:36 PM
As a reference point, I voted for Tarleton.  There are no good Republicans.  Anyone calling themselves a Republican deserve to be kicked out of office.  Burn their party to the ground and salt the Earth.  The entire party is built on an utterly depraved and corrupt apparatus and most of Wyman's support is coming from a base of Washington Republicans who are fed a non-stop firehose of misinformation and downright lies through a variety of channels that have been intentionally cultivated by Republicans to disguise their duplicitous, malicious, partisan intent.  That's what the Republican Party is and Wyman is OUT with the rest of her accursed party.

Yeah, that's how I feel about "good Republicans". If you're so good, why are you a Republican?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on October 23, 2020, 03:18:49 AM
As a reference point, I voted for Tarleton.  There are no good Republicans.  Anyone calling themselves a Republican deserve to be kicked out of office.  Burn their party to the ground and salt the Earth.  The entire party is built on an utterly depraved and corrupt apparatus and most of Wyman's support is coming from a base of Washington Republicans who are fed a non-stop firehose of misinformation and downright lies through a variety of channels that have been intentionally cultivated by Republicans to disguise their duplicitous, malicious, partisan intent.  That's what the Republican Party is and Wyman is OUT with the rest of her accursed party.

Substitute "Democrat" in place of "Republican" - and you would get typical modern Republican argumentation. Equally flawed. When the only two big parties hate each other (and it's candidates) so much and so "tjhoroughly" - country is not in trouble, it's in a BIG trouble (almost on the brink of abyss). But - we shall see.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Calthrina950 on October 23, 2020, 09:23:53 AM
As a reference point, I voted for Tarleton.  There are no good Republicans.  Anyone calling themselves a Republican deserve to be kicked out of office.  Burn their party to the ground and salt the Earth.  The entire party is built on an utterly depraved and corrupt apparatus and most of Wyman's support is coming from a base of Washington Republicans who are fed a non-stop firehose of misinformation and downright lies through a variety of channels that have been intentionally cultivated by Republicans to disguise their duplicitous, malicious, partisan intent.  That's what the Republican Party is and Wyman is OUT with the rest of her accursed party.

Substitute "Democrat" in place of "Republican" - and you would get typical modern Republican argumentation. Equally flawed. When the only two big parties hate each other (and it's candidates) so much and so "tjhoroughly" - country is not in trouble, it's in a BIG trouble (almost on the brink of abyss). But - we shall see.

Agreed. I've expressed my strong disapproval of Trump and the Republican Party in recent months, but that doesn't mean that I'm going to go and kick out all Republican politicians from office. Viewing the opposing party as one's mortal enemy isn't the healthiest way to approach matters, and could very well poison one's personal relationships, if they are unable to make a distinction between the personal and the political.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on October 23, 2020, 10:23:08 AM
I could write a dissertation on the many ways in which "bOtH sIdEz" is a lazy, horrible argument, (and I've voiced my complaints about the Democratic Party quite a bit this year) but I think the pandemic serves as some of the strongest evidence and most relevant evidence against both sides being "equally bad."

Take Inslee's response to COVID-19 arriving here in Washington. We were the very first state to get COVID cases, and some of the early cases were in nursing homes, affecting some of the most vulnerable people. Inslee (and Dow Constatine as well) didn't hesitate, and were discussing how/when to close schools as soon as the first case arrived. He took very quick action in March, and while it was frustrating not to be able to live normally in the spring, the restrictions paid off, as we quickly fell far below many other states in cases and deaths. He prioritized lives, and considered livelihood when he could afford to, easing restrictions at the appropriate time. Take a look at Washington state now. We've got from 1st to 44th in cases per capita, 1st to 41st in deaths per capita, and while there have been some upticks now and then, they've died down over time, since Inslee hasn't rushed to re-open the entire state as quickly as possible. I hate giving classes online, but looking at the many outbreaks which have happened in schools and universities across the country, it's obviously the option that puts the healthy and safety of students and staff first.

Now look at his opponent, Culp. He pretty much parrots right-wing talking points, and if elected governor, he'd pretty much throw the hard work of Inslee, other Democratic officials in this state, and millions of residents in the trash. He wants to throw out the mask mandate immediately, re-open schools as quickly as possible (and we are NOT ready,) and pretty much treat the pandemic the way Trump and numerous Republican governors did; as a minor inconvenience that it's very dangerous and shouldn't make us live our lives any differently.

It's hard to stress how much worse things could be here. Had Inslee not taken COVID seriously, we could easily still be leading the country in cases per capita and deaths. We could have ended up with three to four times as many cases and close to ten times as many deaths. Realistically, the pandemic should not be a partisan issue. Prioritizing lives should be something we can all agree on, and making some sacrifices to avoid outbreaks and overly crowded hospitals should be a no-brainer. Honest Republicans could criticize Inslee on other issues, but should be able to acknowledge that he did a stellar job with his COVID response.

And yet, many Republicans have made this a partisan issue. Inslee gets called a "tyrant", measures that keep people safe are deemed "authoritarian", and many unironically care more about the economy and the DOW Jones than actual lives. The Republican reaction to this pandemic hasn't been very "pro-life", if you ask me. They decry simple measures like wearing a mask indoors in public; a minor inconvenience that has been proven to slow the spread and save lives.

This is the issue with the "bOtH sIdEz" argument. One side is clearly concerned with the health and safety of its people. You can criticize specific measures they might take, but it's hard to argue with their intentions. Another side throws caution to the wind, downplays the severity of a virus that can be deadly and has been for over 200,000 in this country, and puts the economy (most likely their pocketbook) over the lives of other people in their country. There is no equivalency to be made. The Democratic Party, while imperfect in many ways, has cared about and made an effort to protect American lives during the pandemic. The Republican Party largely hasn't.

I could talk about multiple other issues, but this is already getting to be one of my longest posts on this site, so I'll just mention that there are many other issues where this is easy to see. Take healthcare. You might not agree with the specifics of my position on healthcare. GMA certainly doesn't, but he would probably at least acknowledge that the intentions behind my healthcare views are to save lives and make it easier to get treatment. Can anyone argue in good faith that the Republican healthcare plan (when/if there actually is one) is aimed at saving lives and improving the quality of life for the majority of Americans?

Yes, I'm aware that there are some Republicans out there who are different. True. But when there's pretty much no ideological diversity among Congressional Republicans, and they side with Trump on every issue time and time again, while there is clear ideological diversity among Democrats, I have no patience for these arguments equating both sides.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Calthrina950 on October 23, 2020, 10:35:13 AM

I don't disagree with much of what you're saying, and as anyone ought to be aware, I've been harshly critical of the responses of many Republican Governors, such as DeSantis, Kemp, Abbott, Ducey, and Noem, to provide a few names. I've also been harshly critical of Trump's response to the pandemic. But I still think that it's a stretch to say that all Republicans are crazy, or that they are all in deep for Trump. Look at all of the Never-Trumpers and other Republicans who are opposing Trump this year. This is to say nothing of those Republican Governors such as DeWine, Holcomb, and especially-the trio of Baker, Hogan, and Scott-who have responded seriously to this pandemic and have had among the best responses of any Governor in the country to it.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on October 23, 2020, 10:49:02 AM

I don't disagree with much of what you're saying, and as anyone ought to be aware, I've been harshly critical of the responses of many Republican Governors, such as DeSantis, Kemp, Abbott, Ducey, and Noem, to provide a few names. I've also been harshly critical of Trump's response to the pandemic. But I still think that it's a stretch to say that all Republicans are crazy, or that they are all in deep for Trump. Look at all of the Never-Trumpers and other Republicans who are opposing Trump this year. This is to say nothing of those Republican Governors such as DeWine, Holcomb, and especially-the trio of Baker, Hogan, and Scott-who have responded seriously to this pandemic and have had among the best responses of any Governor in the country to it.



As I said, yes, there are some, but the problem is drawing the equivalency between Democrats overall taking the pandemic seriously, while a handful of Republicans and a minority of Republican governors do. There isn't equivalency, and while there are exceptions to the rule, you have to look at the big picture. It's fine to praise Phil Scott, and I'll acknowledge that he's handled the pandemic well (though it's easier to slow the spread in a state like VT, which is quite sparsely populated) but you should do so knowing how unrepresentative he is of Republicans as a whole.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Calthrina950 on October 23, 2020, 11:41:29 AM

I don't disagree with much of what you're saying, and as anyone ought to be aware, I've been harshly critical of the responses of many Republican Governors, such as DeSantis, Kemp, Abbott, Ducey, and Noem, to provide a few names. I've also been harshly critical of Trump's response to the pandemic. But I still think that it's a stretch to say that all Republicans are crazy, or that they are all in deep for Trump. Look at all of the Never-Trumpers and other Republicans who are opposing Trump this year. This is to say nothing of those Republican Governors such as DeWine, Holcomb, and especially-the trio of Baker, Hogan, and Scott-who have responded seriously to this pandemic and have had among the best responses of any Governor in the country to it.



As I said, yes, there are some, but the problem is drawing the equivalency between Democrats overall taking the pandemic seriously, while a handful of Republicans and a minority of Republican governors do. There isn't equivalency, and while there are exceptions to the rule, you have to look at the big picture. It's fine to praise Phil Scott, and I'll acknowledge that he's handled the pandemic well (though it's easier to slow the spread in a state like VT, which is quite sparsely populated) but you should do so knowing how unrepresentative he is of Republicans as a whole.

I think you're misconstruing what I was trying to say. I would agree that Democrats have generally taken this much more seriously than Republicans have, and I'm not going to argue otherwise, although I do believe several Democratic Governors (i.e. Cuomo, Newsom, Whitmer), deserve criticism for their responses and have often gone overboard with the restrictions that they have imposed. What I'm getting at is that not all Democrats or all Republicans should be painted with the same brush, and the example that I just provided helps to provide further support for this claim. We have Republican Governors such as Scott, Hogan, Baker, and DeWine who have done well in responding to this, just like we have Democratic Governors, such as the ones I just named, who have run less than stellar responses.     


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 25, 2020, 03:48:45 PM
There was a bomb threat against the ballot drop box at Everett Mall today. Police had the entire area cordoned off when I was leaving mass.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on October 26, 2020, 03:21:04 AM
Yes, I'm aware that there are some Republicans out there who are different. True. But when there's pretty much no ideological diversity among Congressional Republicans, and they side with Trump on every issue time and time again, while there is clear ideological diversity among Democrats, I have no patience for these arguments equating both sides.

One short question: where do you see a "clear ideological diversity among Democrats"???? I don't see it, and the fact that there is very slightly more of ideological differences in modern day Democratic , then in Republican, party doesn't change the fact, that 2% is almost the same as 1%. When i began to study US politics almost 50 years ago - there WAS a diversity you mention (Thomas Abernethy was CLEARLY different from Bella Abzug), and, BTW - in Republican party too (they had people like Clifford Case, Jacob Javits and Ogden Reid, for example). Not anymore. So - you may get your degree, but your assertion will be false nevertheless.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcibiades on October 26, 2020, 03:59:42 AM
Yes, I'm aware that there are some Republicans out there who are different. True. But when there's pretty much no ideological diversity among Congressional Republicans, and they side with Trump on every issue time and time again, while there is clear ideological diversity among Democrats, I have no patience for these arguments equating both sides.

One short question: where do you see a "clear ideological diversity among Democrats"???? I don't see it, and the fact that there is very slightly more of ideological differences in modern day Democratic , then in Republican, party doesn't change the fact, that 2% is almost the same as 1%. When i began to study US politics almost 50 years ago - there WAS a diversity you mention (Thomas Abernethy was CLEARLY different from Bella Abzug), and, BTW - in Republican party too (they had people like Clifford Case, Jacob Javits and Ogden Reid, for example). Not anymore. So - you may get your degree, but your assertion will be false nevertheless.

The Democrats run the gamut from people who would be considered centrist, or even centre-right, liberals in other countries to democratic socialists. Polarisation has almost exclusively been driven by the GOP’s lurch to the right; in the same period, the Democrats have moved much less further to the left. America has only one big tent party, and it is the Democrats.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on October 26, 2020, 05:14:52 AM
Yes, I'm aware that there are some Republicans out there who are different. True. But when there's pretty much no ideological diversity among Congressional Republicans, and they side with Trump on every issue time and time again, while there is clear ideological diversity among Democrats, I have no patience for these arguments equating both sides.

One short question: where do you see a "clear ideological diversity among Democrats"???? I don't see it, and the fact that there is very slightly more of ideological differences in modern day Democratic , then in Republican, party doesn't change the fact, that 2% is almost the same as 1%. When i began to study US politics almost 50 years ago - there WAS a diversity you mention (Thomas Abernethy was CLEARLY different from Bella Abzug), and, BTW - in Republican party too (they had people like Clifford Case, Jacob Javits and Ogden Reid, for example). Not anymore. So - you may get your degree, but your assertion will be false nevertheless.

The Democrats run the gamut from people who would be considered centrist, or even centre-right, liberals in other countries to democratic socialists. Polarisation has almost exclusively been driven by the GOP’s lurch to the right; in the same period, the Democrats have moved much less further to the left. America has only big tent party, and it is the Democrats.


False.  The Democratic party doesn't have any center-right congressmen now, and very few (no more then 5) who may be called "centrist" (Peterson, Manchin, and that may be all). In fact, if we add governors to mix - Republicans now have more moderate (centrist) governors, then Democrats. Baker, Scott, Hogan vs JBE: 3-1. So, once again - patently false statement: Democrats are (may be) 5-7 years behind of  Republicans as far as polarization is concerned, but, surely - no more "big tent party" even on state legislative level. In fact - i know exactly 1 (one) Democratic state legislator, whom i may call a "conservative"  (with minor reservations), and no more then dozen or two, who are "right of center". Even 15 years ago there were dozens "really conservative" Democratic state legislators. Now "the difference" in almost all cases is between "simply left", "very left" and "radical left"....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcibiades on October 26, 2020, 05:28:08 AM
Yes, I'm aware that there are some Republicans out there who are different. True. But when there's pretty much no ideological diversity among Congressional Republicans, and they side with Trump on every issue time and time again, while there is clear ideological diversity among Democrats, I have no patience for these arguments equating both sides.

One short question: where do you see a "clear ideological diversity among Democrats"???? I don't see it, and the fact that there is very slightly more of ideological differences in modern day Democratic , then in Republican, party doesn't change the fact, that 2% is almost the same as 1%. When i began to study US politics almost 50 years ago - there WAS a diversity you mention (Thomas Abernethy was CLEARLY different from Bella Abzug), and, BTW - in Republican party too (they had people like Clifford Case, Jacob Javits and Ogden Reid, for example). Not anymore. So - you may get your degree, but your assertion will be false nevertheless.

The Democrats run the gamut from people who would be considered centrist, or even centre-right, liberals in other countries to democratic socialists. Polarisation has almost exclusively been driven by the GOP’s lurch to the right; in the same period, the Democrats have moved much less further to the left. America has only big tent party, and it is the Democrats.


False.  The Democratic party doesn't have any center-right congressmen now, and very few (no more then 5) who may be called "centrist" (Peterson, Manchin, and that may be all). In fact, if we add governors to mix - Republicans now have more moderate (centrist) governors, then Democrats. Baker, Scott, Hogan vs JBE: 3-1. So, once again - patently false statement: Democrats are (may be) 5-7 years behind of  Republicans as far as polarization is concerned, but, surely - no more "big tent party" even on state legislative level. In fact - i know exactly 1 (one) Democratic state legislator, whom i may call a "conservative"  (with minor reservations), and no more then dozen or two, who are "right of center". Even 15 years ago there were dozens "really conservative" Democratic state legislators. Now "the difference" in almost all cases is between "simply left", "very left" and "radical left"....

Only in a big tent party would Michael Bloomberg and Bernie Sanders both run for the same party’s nomination.

As you said, there are still some moderate Republicans at the state level, but while the centre-left makes up the majority faction of the Democrats, the centre-right is a minuscule portion of the GOP, with the hard right being dominant. The fact that Mitt Romney, a staunch economic conservative, is considered on the left of the GOP tells you everything you need to know.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on October 26, 2020, 05:49:26 AM
Yes, I'm aware that there are some Republicans out there who are different. True. But when there's pretty much no ideological diversity among Congressional Republicans, and they side with Trump on every issue time and time again, while there is clear ideological diversity among Democrats, I have no patience for these arguments equating both sides.

One short question: where do you see a "clear ideological diversity among Democrats"???? I don't see it, and the fact that there is very slightly more of ideological differences in modern day Democratic , then in Republican, party doesn't change the fact, that 2% is almost the same as 1%. When i began to study US politics almost 50 years ago - there WAS a diversity you mention (Thomas Abernethy was CLEARLY different from Bella Abzug), and, BTW - in Republican party too (they had people like Clifford Case, Jacob Javits and Ogden Reid, for example). Not anymore. So - you may get your degree, but your assertion will be false nevertheless.

The Democrats run the gamut from people who would be considered centrist, or even centre-right, liberals in other countries to democratic socialists. Polarisation has almost exclusively been driven by the GOP’s lurch to the right; in the same period, the Democrats have moved much less further to the left. America has only big tent party, and it is the Democrats.


False.  The Democratic party doesn't have any center-right congressmen now, and very few (no more then 5) who may be called "centrist" (Peterson, Manchin, and that may be all). In fact, if we add governors to mix - Republicans now have more moderate (centrist) governors, then Democrats. Baker, Scott, Hogan vs JBE: 3-1. So, once again - patently false statement: Democrats are (may be) 5-7 years behind of  Republicans as far as polarization is concerned, but, surely - no more "big tent party" even on state legislative level. In fact - i know exactly 1 (one) Democratic state legislator, whom i may call a "conservative"  (with minor reservations), and no more then dozen or two, who are "right of center". Even 15 years ago there were dozens "really conservative" Democratic state legislators. Now "the difference" in almost all cases is between "simply left", "very left" and "radical left"....

Only in a big tent party would Michael Bloomberg and Bernie Sanders both run for the same party’s nomination.

As you said, there are still some moderate Republicans at the state level, but while the centre-left makes up the majority faction of the Democrats, the centre-right is a minuscule portion of the GOP, with the hard right being dominant. The fact that Mitt Romney, a staunch economic conservative, is considered on the left of the GOP tells you everything you need to know.

No, i need to know (and know) much more..... BTW, Bloomberg is a solid liberal (some more moderate on economy) for me. So - not convinced))))  And majority faction of Democratic party is now "left" without "center"...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Alcibiades on October 26, 2020, 05:53:20 AM
Yes, I'm aware that there are some Republicans out there who are different. True. But when there's pretty much no ideological diversity among Congressional Republicans, and they side with Trump on every issue time and time again, while there is clear ideological diversity among Democrats, I have no patience for these arguments equating both sides.

One short question: where do you see a "clear ideological diversity among Democrats"???? I don't see it, and the fact that there is very slightly more of ideological differences in modern day Democratic , then in Republican, party doesn't change the fact, that 2% is almost the same as 1%. When i began to study US politics almost 50 years ago - there WAS a diversity you mention (Thomas Abernethy was CLEARLY different from Bella Abzug), and, BTW - in Republican party too (they had people like Clifford Case, Jacob Javits and Ogden Reid, for example). Not anymore. So - you may get your degree, but your assertion will be false nevertheless.

The Democrats run the gamut from people who would be considered centrist, or even centre-right, liberals in other countries to democratic socialists. Polarisation has almost exclusively been driven by the GOP’s lurch to the right; in the same period, the Democrats have moved much less further to the left. America has only big tent party, and it is the Democrats.


False.  The Democratic party doesn't have any center-right congressmen now, and very few (no more then 5) who may be called "centrist" (Peterson, Manchin, and that may be all). In fact, if we add governors to mix - Republicans now have more moderate (centrist) governors, then Democrats. Baker, Scott, Hogan vs JBE: 3-1. So, once again - patently false statement: Democrats are (may be) 5-7 years behind of  Republicans as far as polarization is concerned, but, surely - no more "big tent party" even on state legislative level. In fact - i know exactly 1 (one) Democratic state legislator, whom i may call a "conservative"  (with minor reservations), and no more then dozen or two, who are "right of center". Even 15 years ago there were dozens "really conservative" Democratic state legislators. Now "the difference" in almost all cases is between "simply left", "very left" and "radical left"....

Only in a big tent party would Michael Bloomberg and Bernie Sanders both run for the same party’s nomination.

As you said, there are still some moderate Republicans at the state level, but while the centre-left makes up the majority faction of the Democrats, the centre-right is a minuscule portion of the GOP, with the hard right being dominant. The fact that Mitt Romney, a staunch economic conservative, is considered on the left of the GOP tells you everything you need to know.

No, i need to know (and know) much more..... BTW, Bloomberg is a solid liberal (some more moderate on economy) for me. So - not convinced))))  And majority faction of Democratic party is now "left" without "center"...

Look at who holds all the Congressional leadership positions. Look at who the party’s presidential nominee is. The Democrats are clearly still run for the most part by centre-leftists, not leftists. There is no powerful moderate conservative equivalent in the GOP to the moderate liberal faction that dominates the Democratic Party.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on October 26, 2020, 06:21:30 AM
Yes, I'm aware that there are some Republicans out there who are different. True. But when there's pretty much no ideological diversity among Congressional Republicans, and they side with Trump on every issue time and time again, while there is clear ideological diversity among Democrats, I have no patience for these arguments equating both sides.

One short question: where do you see a "clear ideological diversity among Democrats"???? I don't see it, and the fact that there is very slightly more of ideological differences in modern day Democratic , then in Republican, party doesn't change the fact, that 2% is almost the same as 1%. When i began to study US politics almost 50 years ago - there WAS a diversity you mention (Thomas Abernethy was CLEARLY different from Bella Abzug), and, BTW - in Republican party too (they had people like Clifford Case, Jacob Javits and Ogden Reid, for example). Not anymore. So - you may get your degree, but your assertion will be false nevertheless.

The Democrats run the gamut from people who would be considered centrist, or even centre-right, liberals in other countries to democratic socialists. Polarisation has almost exclusively been driven by the GOP’s lurch to the right; in the same period, the Democrats have moved much less further to the left. America has only big tent party, and it is the Democrats.


False.  The Democratic party doesn't have any center-right congressmen now, and very few (no more then 5) who may be called "centrist" (Peterson, Manchin, and that may be all). In fact, if we add governors to mix - Republicans now have more moderate (centrist) governors, then Democrats. Baker, Scott, Hogan vs JBE: 3-1. So, once again - patently false statement: Democrats are (may be) 5-7 years behind of  Republicans as far as polarization is concerned, but, surely - no more "big tent party" even on state legislative level. In fact - i know exactly 1 (one) Democratic state legislator, whom i may call a "conservative"  (with minor reservations), and no more then dozen or two, who are "right of center". Even 15 years ago there were dozens "really conservative" Democratic state legislators. Now "the difference" in almost all cases is between "simply left", "very left" and "radical left"....

Only in a big tent party would Michael Bloomberg and Bernie Sanders both run for the same party’s nomination.

As you said, there are still some moderate Republicans at the state level, but while the centre-left makes up the majority faction of the Democrats, the centre-right is a minuscule portion of the GOP, with the hard right being dominant. The fact that Mitt Romney, a staunch economic conservative, is considered on the left of the GOP tells you everything you need to know.

No, i need to know (and know) much more..... BTW, Bloomberg is a solid liberal (some more moderate on economy) for me. So - not convinced))))  And majority faction of Democratic party is now "left" without "center"...

Look at who holds all the Congressional leadership positions. Look at who the party’s presidential nominee is. The Democrats are clearly still run for the most part by centre-leftists, not leftists. There is no powerful moderate conservative equivalent in the GOP to the moderate liberal faction that dominates the Democratic Party.


As i said - Republicans are 5-7 years ahead on polarization issues. But - Democrats are very rapidly moving in the same direction. The difference - exist, but becomes more and more miniscule with every passing year. Soon there will be NO difference...

P.S. Some interesting data on subject:

https://fascinatingpolitics.com/2020/10/25/ideological-makeup-of-the-parties-1920-1970-and-2020/

The level of polarization NOW is even higher, then 100 years ago, when it was already high, and MUCH bigger, then 50 years ago. And Republicans are NOT the only one to be blamed for that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: kph14 on October 27, 2020, 08:27:37 PM
Statewide turnout has hit 52.6% of all registered voters. In 2016, turnout was at just 52.3% the day before the election!

Statewide   4,866,924   2,560,531   52.6%

https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on October 28, 2020, 12:09:04 PM
Statewide turnout has hit 52.6% of all registered voters. In 2016, turnout was at just 52.3% the day before the election!

Statewide   4,866,924   2,560,531   52.6%

https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx

And that's already ~75% of 2016 total turnout.

I think it's pretty clear (this was obvious from the record breaking August primary) that this will be WA's highest turnout election ever and that 90% RV turnout is not unlikely (79.4% in 2016).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on October 29, 2020, 09:11:44 PM
()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Left Wing on October 29, 2020, 09:12:57 PM
It’s likely not going to be that close but why did you use such an old picture of Culp?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on October 29, 2020, 09:17:06 PM
It’s likely not going to be that close but why did you use such an old picture of Culp?

Eh, jungles are pretty good predictors on the statewide in Washington lately, and that is close to the jungle results overall. What are you talking about? That is Loren Culp now.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Roll Roons on October 29, 2020, 09:19:10 PM
Random question: How come jungle primary results in Washington tend to be good predictors of the general while those in California often aren't?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Left Wing on October 29, 2020, 09:19:24 PM
It’s likely not going to be that close but why did you use such an old picture of Culp?

Eh, jungles are pretty good predictors on the statewide in Washington lately, and that is close to the jungle results overall. What are you talking about? That is Loren Culp now.
That’s a picture of him when he was like 25 or something
This is him now:
()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: S019 on October 29, 2020, 09:24:53 PM
Asking our Washington posters: do we have any updates on how things look in WA-08, because that was very close in the primary, which is often predictive of generals in Washington?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Left Wing on October 29, 2020, 09:34:09 PM
Asking our Washington posters: do we have any updates on how things look in WA-08, because that was very close in the primary, which is often predictive of generals in Washington?
My anecdotal evidence is that Kim Schrier ads are on TV constantly and I’ve only ever seen her opponent’s ad once.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on October 29, 2020, 10:59:00 PM
Asking our Washington posters: do we have any updates on how things look in WA-08, because that was very close in the primary, which is often predictive of generals in Washington?

Schrier will probably be fine. I think the primary results were a bit more favorable for the Republicans because there were more competitive primaries for them.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: lfromnj on October 29, 2020, 11:34:59 PM
Random question: How come jungle primary results in Washington tend to be good predictors of the general while those in California often aren't?
Washington is much more white, which means turnout closer is usally more equal between ED and primary day. Infact I think WA Primary can sometimes favor Democrats compared to GE day because college whites are the highest turnout group and in WA they overwhelmingly vote D.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 30, 2020, 11:11:10 AM
Asking our Washington posters: do we have any updates on how things look in WA-08, because that was very close in the primary, which is often predictive of generals in Washington?
My anecdotal evidence is that Kim Schrier ads are on TV constantly and I’ve only ever seen her opponent’s ad once.

I get Schrier ads all the time, and I'm not even in her district.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 02, 2020, 01:50:09 PM
Random question: How come jungle primary results in Washington tend to be good predictors of the general while those in California often aren't?
Washington is much more white, which means turnout closer is usally more equal between ED and primary day. Infact I think WA Primary can sometimes favor Democrats compared to GE day because college whites are the highest turnout group and in WA they overwhelmingly vote D.

I don't think the primary is as good of a predictor as you think it is Roll Roons.
In 18, the primary was slightly more favorable for the Ds than the general ended up being. While it's pretty clear the opposite is true for this year and we'll find out soon enough. I believe 2016 was pretty spot on though. I have no clue about 12/14.

One thing for sure is that late returning ballots do not follow as strict of a D-heavy trend that is seen in CA/AZ. It's much more variable.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on November 02, 2020, 01:59:13 PM
I was in Tacoma the other day, and it's pretty shocking just how much more enthusiasm there is this year. I lived there from 2014-2016 (I moved back to Seattle just before the election), and I hardly saw any yard signs there. I predicted that the area would swing somewhat to Trump. This year, however, there are yard signs all over the place, almost all of them for Biden and Democrats. The difference is absolutely insane, and while it might not translate to a huge swing, as someone who lived there, it's hard not to see this as somewhat indicative of a change. There were a few Wyman signs, but significantly more Tarleton signs. Wyman doesn't need to win Tacoma proper to win statewide, but she probably can't afford to lose Pierce, and winning Pierce means at least keeping it somewhat close in Tacoma.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 03, 2020, 01:27:02 PM
That's encouraging to hear. Particularly the Tarleton signs.

Here's my E-day prediction:

Turnout: I really want it to get to 4m, but I think we fall short. Probably something like 3.9 or 3.95.

Pres: 59-37 (I really don't think Trump is going to get a higher percentage than he did in 16)
Gov: Inslee 58-42
LG: Heck 50-35-15 (Freed write-ins). This is a tough race to predict and will take awhile to count due to write-ins
AG: Ferguson 59-41
SOS: Tarleton 51-49 Maybe ticket splitting isn't dead, but I don't think it's enough to save Wyman. But wouldn't be surprised if she wins wither.
Auditor: McCarthy 62-38
Insurance: Kreidler 66-34
Treasurer: Pellicciotti 56-44
Lands: Franz 60-40
PI: Reykdal 55-45

WA-1: 61-39 DelBene
WA-2: 66-34 Larsen
WA-3: 52-48 JHB
WA-4: 62-38 Newhouse
WA-5: 57-43 CMR
WA-6: 64-36 Kilmer
WA-7: 86-14 Jayapal
WA-8: 55-45 Schrier
WA-9: 76-24 Smith
WA-10: 60-40 Strickland

Leg: D+1 in senate, D+1 in house
R sweep LD-19, taking the senate seat and remaining house (bye-bye Takko and Blake), but Ds gain in LDs 28 (senate, bye O’Bann), 10 (senate and one house), and 42 (one house).
There are some R-held suburban/exurban seats that could surprise if the suburban shift is big enough: LD-26 (Kitsap + Gig Harbor), LD-25 (Puyallup), LD-17 (suburban Clark county), and LD-6 (Spokane periphery and Cheney). I fully expect Biden to win all three of those districts.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on November 03, 2020, 06:11:15 PM


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 03, 2020, 11:19:38 PM
If you thought Rs crated in King in 2016/18....

Biden is leading with 1.03 counted out of a likely 1.25-3 by 77-20

He's currently leading in Pacific as well, will be interesting to see if that holds.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 03, 2020, 11:34:42 PM
Trends are definitely real in WA. Looks like Wyman likely holds on, at least.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 03, 2020, 11:50:18 PM
Initial results are barring out very close to my predictions. Looks like LD-17 pos 2 might be the surprise - or trade with LD 10 pos 1.

Biden doing extremely well on the east side of the cascades. Currently ahead in Walla Walla county!?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 04, 2020, 01:24:01 AM
Biden doing extremely well on the east side of the cascades. Currently ahead in Walla Walla county!?

I've heard the SDAs of College Place are very anti-Trump despite being typically conservative.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: cwt on November 04, 2020, 08:03:26 PM
https://www.khq.com/elections/loren-culp-announces-the-city-of-republic-has-defunded-the-police-department/article_4d303c88-1edf-11eb-b0d1-1b8597464345.html

So Culp not only lost the election, he lost his job. The City Council of Republic voted to defund their police department.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Roll Roons on November 04, 2020, 09:44:09 PM
Wyman is up by 5 statewide and getting over 40% in King County. Thurston County was Biden +23 and Wyman +18. Pretty amazing performance on her part. Polarization isn't absolute after all.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Calthrina950 on November 04, 2020, 09:48:06 PM
Wyman is up by 5 statewide and getting over 40% in King County. Thurston County was Biden +23 and Wyman +18. Pretty amazing performance on her part. Polarization isn't absolute after all.

With these numbers, she should be on track to win reelection, correct? Elsewhere, other moderate Republican officeholders such as Collins and Fitzpatrick have also won reelection, in spite of Biden wins in their districts/states.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Roll Roons on November 04, 2020, 09:55:27 PM
Wyman is up by 5 statewide and getting over 40% in King County. Thurston County was Biden +23 and Wyman +18. Pretty amazing performance on her part. Polarization isn't absolute after all.

With these numbers, she should be on track to win reelection, correct? Elsewhere, other moderate Republican officeholders such as Collins and Fitzpatrick have also won reelection, in spite of Biden wins in their districts/states.

Yeah, she's got it in the bag.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on November 04, 2020, 10:41:28 PM
Looks like a record number of African-American legislators will be joining after these elections. Tanisha Harris in LD 17 looks impressive, anyone knows what is going on there?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 04, 2020, 11:56:15 PM
Culp lost his job. Talk about insult to injury.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Calthrina950 on November 05, 2020, 01:08:39 AM
At 93% reporting according to the NYT, Biden has 60.2% in Washington, which makes him the first Democrat to hit that benchmark there since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. That is an impressive performance, indicating that he consolidated virtually all of the third-party vote from last time.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 05, 2020, 04:08:00 PM
At 93% reporting according to the NYT, Biden has 60.2% in Washington, which makes him the first Democrat to hit that benchmark there since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. That is an impressive performance, indicating that he consolidated virtually all of the third-party vote from last time.

I am unsure that's likely to hold. I think it'll end up settling around 59.5%. Still the best since LBJ.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Left Wing on November 06, 2020, 03:21:50 AM
Culp is now refusing to concede the results. He says it "smells fishy." His only evidence is that he thinks referendum 90 shouldn't have passed. He has started a new video blog called "Lunch with Loren." It seems like he is just taking cues from how Trump is handling this.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 06, 2020, 12:07:44 PM
Yes, Culp, the Republican SoS-run election in which you were blown out of the water "smells fishy" to you. What a joke of a candidate. I am still stunned the WA GOP chose him in the primary. The party needs some serious help.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on November 06, 2020, 12:45:51 PM
Of course Culp isn't conceding, lol. As I expected, Wyman held on, and Davidson got ousted. If Republicans were smart, they'd push Wyman to run for Governor in 2024 if Inslee retires, but given the fact that Culp won the primary, I'm not sure they're headed down that path.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on November 09, 2020, 11:55:27 AM
WA GOP is a big fat mess.  It's mostly been taken over by Breitbart-style grievance warriors who just want to hate on Seattle and own the libs all day.  All I see from WA GOP people on social media is snark and lib hate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Damocles on November 09, 2020, 11:48:02 PM
WA GOP is a big fat mess.  It's mostly been taken over by Breitbart-style grievance warriors who just want to hate on Seattle and own the libs all day.  All I see from WA GOP people on social media is snark and lib hate.
When your biggest argument against a sitting governor is “maggot apples”, you don’t live in Washington. You live in clown world.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 11, 2020, 04:13:44 AM
In Washington State, the debate these days is mainly between the progressive and centrist wings of the Democratic Party (I would consider myself a swing vote between the two wings).  The WA GOP is a hateful, incompetent $hit show which has no grasp of reality and therefore is not taken seriously.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: cwt on November 12, 2020, 08:48:21 PM
So if Inslee takes off for a role in the Biden administration how does the special election for Governor work?

Is there a primary or is there just one big free-for-all ballot?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Left Wing on November 12, 2020, 08:55:24 PM
So if Inslee takes off for a role in the Biden administration how does the special election for Governor work?

Is there a primary or is there just one big free-for-all ballot?
Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think there is a special election. I think Denny Heck would just become governor serve out the rest of Inslee's term.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on November 12, 2020, 09:12:27 PM
So if Inslee takes off for a role in the Biden administration how does the special election for Governor work?

Is there a primary or is there just one big free-for-all ballot?
Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think there is a special election. I think Denny Heck would just become governor serve out the rest of Inslee's term.

It’s my understanding that Heck would temporarily serve as Governor, but that there would be a special election next November. I could be wrong, though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 16, 2020, 02:08:47 PM
So if Inslee takes off for a role in the Biden administration how does the special election for Governor work?

Is there a primary or is there just one big free-for-all ballot?
Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think there is a special election. I think Denny Heck would just become governor serve out the rest of Inslee's term.

It’s my understanding that Heck would temporarily serve as Governor, but that there would be a special election next November. I could be wrong, though.

From a recent Seattle Times article:

Quote
An election would then be called to fill out the remainder of Inslee’s term. It would be held in 2021 if Inslee quit before that year’s May 15 candidate filing deadline, and in 2022 if he resigned later.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 27, 2020, 11:03:22 PM
With King county certification this past Tuesday, here's how King County cities voted (Bothell, Pacific, and Auburn results are inclusive of their appendages into Snohomish/Pierce counties):

Basic takeaway is that the Eastside now votes like inner suburbs (quite a few >80% Biden precincts in Shoreline/Lake Forest Park/Redmond(!)/Mercer Island.

City                      Biden                   Trump              Other
Seattle                  88.45                   9.11                2.43
Lake Forest Park    80.59                   16.38               3.02
Shoreline              78.92                   18.30               2.79
Mercer Island        75.89                    21.52              2.49
Redmond              74.84                    21.90              3.27
Kenmore               73.65                   23.25               3.10
Tukwila                 73.09                   24.23               2.68
Issaquah               72.82                   24.33               2.85
Kirkland                72.60                   24.23               3.17
Beaux Art Village    71.78                  24.07               4.15
Burien                   71.98                  25.33                2.69
Bellevue                71.30                   25.81               2.89
Sammamish          70.84                   26.25                2.91 (! Voted for Obama by like 5 in '12)
Yarrow Point          70.69                   26.29                3.02 (! Literally voted for Romney)
Woodinville            70.03                  26.79                 3.17

Newcastle              69.15                  27.71                 3.15
Bothell                  68.86                   27.77                3.37 (King Co portion is >70 Biden)
SeaTac                  69.12                   28.17                2.71
Renton                  68.98                   28.09                2.93
Normandy Park      68.00                   29.50                2.50
Duvall                   67.01                   28.95                4.05 (I think Romney won here too)
Des Moines            67.04                   30.21                2.75
Snoqualmie            65.75                  30.62                 3.62
Medina                  65.52                   31.71                2.77
Kent                      64.50                   32.32                3.18
Clyde Hill               63.73                   33.19                3.08 (Voted for Romney)
Federal Way           63.25                   33.86                2.89
Carnation               62.78                   33.15                4.07
North Bend             62.48                   33.60                3.92
Hunts Point             59.42                   39.29                1.30 (Voted for Romney)
Auburn                   57.90                   39.00                3.10 (Pierce part voted to the left of King)
Maple Valley            56.31                   39.95                3.74 (50/50 in 2012)
Covington               55.98                   40.38                 3.71 (50/50 in 2012)
Algona                    52.65                   45.38                1.97 (This 51-46 Kerry, has barely budged)
Pacific                     50.85                   46.14                3.01

Black Diamond         46.52                  50.54                 2.94
Enumclaw                43.93                  52.76                 3.30


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Skye on November 28, 2020, 03:52:50 AM
With King county certification this past Tuesday, here's how King County cities voted (Bothell, Pacific, and Auburn results are inclusive of their appendages into Snohomish/Pierce counties):

Basic takeaway is that the Eastside now votes like inner suburbs (quite a few >80% Biden precincts in Shoreline/Lake Forest Park/Redmond(!)/Mercer Island.

City                      Biden                   Trump              Other
Seattle                  88.45                   9.11                2.43
Lake Forest Park    80.59                   16.38               3.02
Shoreline              78.92                   18.30               2.79
Mercer Island        75.89                    21.52              2.49
Redmond              74.84                    21.90              3.27
Kenmore               73.65                   23.25               3.10
Tukwila                 73.09                   24.23               2.68
Issaquah               72.82                   24.33               2.85
Kirkland                72.60                   24.23               3.17
Beaux Art Village    71.78                  24.07               4.15
Burien                   71.98                  25.33                2.69
Bellevue                71.30                   25.81               2.89
Sammamish          70.84                   26.25                2.91 (! Voted for Obama by like 5 in '12)
Yarrow Point          70.69                   26.29                3.02 (! Literally voted for Romney)
Woodinville            70.03                  26.79                 3.17

Newcastle              69.15                  27.71                 3.15
Bothell                  68.86                   27.77                3.37 (King Co portion is >70 Biden)
SeaTac                  69.12                   28.17                2.71
Renton                  68.98                   28.09                2.93
Normandy Park      68.00                   29.50                2.50
Duvall                   67.01                   28.95                4.05 (I think Romney won here too)
Des Moines            67.04                   30.21                2.75
Snoqualmie            65.75                  30.62                 3.62
Medina                  65.52                   31.71                2.77
Kent                      64.50                   32.32                3.18
Clyde Hill               63.73                   33.19                3.08 (Voted for Romney)
Federal Way           63.25                   33.86                2.89
Carnation               62.78                   33.15                4.07
North Bend             62.48                   33.60                3.92
Hunts Point             59.42                   39.29                1.30 (Voted for Romney)
Auburn                   57.90                   39.00                3.10 (Pierce part voted to the left of King)
Maple Valley            56.31                   39.95                3.74 (50/50 in 2012)
Covington               55.98                   40.38                 3.71 (50/50 in 2012)
Algona                    52.65                   45.38                1.97 (This 51-46 Kerry, has barely budged)
Pacific                     50.85                   46.14                3.01

Black Diamond         46.52                  50.54                 2.94
Enumclaw                43.93                  52.76                 3.30


Post this in the 2020 Presidential Election board please!

Anyways, I dug into the results of King County as well, looks like Kim Wyman took 28% of the vote in Seattle. That's an impressive number if you ask me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on January 20, 2021, 05:55:09 PM
Wyman considering leaving the Republican Party. (https://kuow.org/stories/republican-secretary-of-state-kim-wyman-may-quit-gop)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on January 20, 2021, 07:09:38 PM
Wyman considering leaving the Republican Party. (https://kuow.org/stories/republican-secretary-of-state-kim-wyman-may-quit-gop)

I doubt that she actually goes through with this, but if she does, there would pretty much go any hope of the GOP winning the gubernatorial race in 2024, or probably any statewide race, for that matter.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on January 21, 2021, 05:28:24 PM
Maybe she'll run as an Independent?

I know there's a push for a top 4 primary with ranked choice voting. I'd be in favor of that just on the basis of assured wacky results we'd get here and there. But it would be nice to get away from the stranglehold 2 party system.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on January 21, 2021, 08:01:00 PM
Maybe she'll run as an Independent?

I know there's a push for a top 4 primary with ranked choice voting. I'd be in favor of that just on the basis of assured wacky results we'd get here and there. But it would be nice to get away from the stranglehold 2 party system.

Is there a referendum or movement in Olympia?

I'd totally be down for this..


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on January 24, 2021, 03:20:03 PM
Random fact I just learned: Apparently my dad went to high school with Marilyn Strickland. He wasn't in the same year as her and they didn't know each other personally, but he did show me a picture from his yearbook of her as a cheerleader.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on February 25, 2021, 02:52:47 PM
The State Supreme Court has thrown out the state's strict liability drug possession statute. (https://www.courts.wa.gov/opinions/pdf/968730.pdf?fbclid=IwAR2SS7M1vEIzMohpw_lUz0y1L77TNq-NkB_7TEHLKs5ZHuDgZDJk-dL9Sd0)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Meeker on February 28, 2021, 04:15:54 PM
I've added results for all the statewide executive contests in the 2020 general election, as well as for Referendum 90, the Lt. Governor top-two primary, and the Lt. Governor primary as if it were two seperate partisan contests: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=53&f=0&off=99

I did make one boo-boo and accidentally entered 2018's Initiative 940 as a 2020 contest, and I don't have permissions to go back and change the year. I've emailed Dave about it. The results for the contest are accurate in all other respects.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on March 16, 2021, 01:19:28 PM
Harrell IN:



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on March 17, 2021, 03:10:06 AM
Praise the Lord, we finally have an adult in the race.

I admired Bruce Harrell when he was on the council, not for any particular political stance (although he was always one of the serious people) but because as council president he showed absolutely astounding patience dealing with the endless parade of bulls--t brought before the council every day.  Most of it at Sawant's behest.

The open mic periods they have, where they have to sit for hours and listen to people's comments, are basically activist poetry slams.  It's incredibly obnoxious and to me the worst part of it is always how proud they are of themselves like they think they're awesome for getting up in front of a mic and reading some pre-written hyperbole with bad "angry/outraged" acting.

And of course he had to deal with Sawant herself on a daily basis, constantly delivering these obnoxiously long and off-topic speeches with dramatic over-acting and bringing in her SocAlt crew to cheer her on and chant over Bruce and the other council members.  It was a nightmare.

Watching Bruce endure all of this was really a lesson in stoicism.  He was like the parent of a child with severe behavioral disorders who can just achieve a sort of zen state to get through the daily tantrums and screaming and abuse.

I wasn't surprised at all when he retired.  He's some sort of martyr for wanting to come back and suffer through it all again.  But he can see as well as anyone that Seattle has gone WAY downhill since the 2019 elections (coincidentally one of my first threads on Atlas) and that he's probably one of the 2 or 3 people in Seattle who can stop Lorena Gonzalez from basically turning the mayor's office into a rubber-stamp for the Sawant/Morales/Oliver agenda.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Left Wing on March 22, 2021, 03:11:28 PM
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/jessyn-farrell-former-state-representative-announces-bid-to-become-seattles-next-mayor/

Jessyn Farrell in


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ChelseaT on March 23, 2021, 05:32:20 AM
As someone who's recently moved to WA, I have to ask. What is wrong with the WA GOP that they're so irrelevant? Do they just have no somewhat competent candidates? Or is it more a branding issue? Gotta be some reason that they haven't won in literally decades.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Left Wing on March 23, 2021, 08:28:52 AM
As someone who's recently moved to WA, I have to ask. What is wrong with the WA GOP that they're so irrelevant? Do they just have no somewhat competent candidates? Or is it more a branding issue? Gotta be some reason that they haven't won in literally decades.
I mean part of it is just that Washington state is a fundamentally Democratic state and demographics are only getting more and more favorable for the Dems here. One of the problems for the WA GOP seems to be trying to thread the needle of moderate and trumpist Republicans. They tried nice friendly moderates(although it’s debatable how accurate this is) with Dino Rossi, Rob McKenna and Bill Bryant and while they all were able to keep the loss in single digits, there just weren’t quite enough persuadable Washington Democrats. Now this year, they tried a much more fringe Trumpist Republican candidate in Loren Culp. He openly embraced conspiracy theories throughout the campaign and ruthlessly attacked Inslee. As we can see from the swing map this played well in NE and SW rural Washington, but King county and sorrounding areas swung sharply D, handing Inslee a double digit win  statewide:
()

So basically, the WA GOP can’t really figure out to get a wide base of support in the state and it’s only going to get more difficult unless Seattle stops growing and becomes more economically depressed.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on March 23, 2021, 10:20:51 AM
As someone who's recently moved to WA, I have to ask. What is wrong with the WA GOP that they're so irrelevant? Do they just have no somewhat competent candidates? Or is it more a branding issue? Gotta be some reason that they haven't won in literally decades.
I mean part of it is just that Washington state is a fundamentally Democratic state and demographics are only getting more and more favorable for the Dems here. One of the problems for the WA GOP seems to be trying to thread the needle of moderate and trumpist Republicans. They tried nice friendly moderates(although it’s debatable how accurate this is) with Dino Rossi, Rob McKenna and Bill Bryant and while they all were able to keep the loss in single digits, there just weren’t quite enough persuadable Washington Democrats. Now this year, they tried a much more fringe Trumpist Republican candidate in Loren Culp. He openly embraced conspiracy theories throughout the campaign and ruthlessly attacked Inslee. As we can see from the swing map this played well in NE and SW rural Washington, but King county and sorrounding areas swung sharply D, handing Inslee a double digit win  statewide:
()

So basically, the WA GOP can’t really figure out to get a wide base of support in the state and it’s only going to get more difficult unless Seattle stops growing and becomes more economically depressed.

WA is also structurally difficult for the Republicans to win as all the major statewide offices are elected during Presidential years and universal VBM means you very rarely see large fluctuations in turnout.

I have some hypotheses about how Republicans might be able to put together a winning coalition, but doing so requires some major re-thinking of the electoral playing field which I don't think the state party is willing to consider at this time.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on March 23, 2021, 01:53:10 PM

I have some hypotheses about how Republicans might be able to put together a winning coalition, but doing so requires some major re-thinking of the electoral playing field which I don't think the state party is willing to consider at this time.

Do tell!

One place Rs have been more successful (overperforming) has been in the state legislature. It's likely to do with the current map (so structural), but they've done well in marginal districts like LD-10 (Island County), LD-42 (non-Bellingham Whatcom), LD-17 (East Vancouver), LD-26 (Key Peninsula + S. Kitsap), LD-25 (Puyallup & South Hill), LD-6 (N. Spokane). In addition to keeping suburban fast swinging D seats like LD-28 (Lakewood), LD-47 (Kent), LD-5 (Sammamish/Snoqualmie) in play until 2016/2018.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Interlocutor is just not there yet on March 24, 2021, 05:47:57 AM
So basically, the WA GOP can’t really figure out to get a wide base of support in the state and it’s only going to get more difficult unless Seattle stops growing and becomes more economically depressed.

Not to mention Californians moving out there on a daily basis (Myself hopefully included soon)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: beesley on March 24, 2021, 03:28:02 PM
So basically, the WA GOP can’t really figure out to get a wide base of support in the state and it’s only going to get more difficult unless Seattle stops growing and becomes more economically depressed.

Not to mention Californians like me moving out there on a daily basis (Myself hopefully included soon)

Do Californians tend to move to Seattle, the surrounding cities, or the rural areas?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Kamala’s side hoe on March 24, 2021, 09:21:56 PM
So basically, the WA GOP can’t really figure out to get a wide base of support in the state and it’s only going to get more difficult unless Seattle stops growing and becomes more economically depressed.

Not to mention Californians like me moving out there on a daily basis (Myself hopefully included soon)

Do Californians tend to move to Seattle, the surrounding cities, or the rural areas?

Probably mostly Seattle proper + the surrounding suburbs, and not the other major cities in WA state or rural areas. One of my high school friends moved to the Bay Area after college, and then moved to Seattle a few months ago.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on March 24, 2021, 09:43:54 PM
As someone who's recently moved to WA, I have to ask. What is wrong with the WA GOP that they're so irrelevant? Do they just have no somewhat competent candidates? Or is it more a branding issue? Gotta be some reason that they haven't won in literally decades.

Back in the 1980s and 1990s when Washington State was a swing state, the WA GOP M.O. was to run by demonizing King County in general and Seattle specifically.  This sometimes worked until growth in the Greater Seattle region rendered the strategy unworkable.  The sign the tipping point had been reached was when three-term incumbent U.S. Senator Slade Gorton was defeated by Maria Cantwell in 2000 in an ultra-close race.  Cantwell only won five counties in that race but racked up huge margins in King County.

As the 2000s wore on, the WA GOP continued the same losing strategy even as Seattle and King County got more populous.  The result is irrelevance in statewide races.  The WA GOP remains competitive at the district level.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: AZDem on March 24, 2021, 11:19:01 PM
As someone who's recently moved to WA, I have to ask. What is wrong with the WA GOP that they're so irrelevant? Do they just have no somewhat competent candidates? Or is it more a branding issue? Gotta be some reason that they haven't won in literally decades.

Back in the 1980s and 1990s when Washington State was a swing state, the WA GOP M.O. was to run by demonizing King County in general and Seattle specifically.  This sometimes worked until growth in the Greater Seattle region rendered the strategy unworkable.  The sign the tipping point had been reached was when three-term incumbent U.S. Senator Slade Gorton was defeated by Maria Cantwell in 2000 in an ultra-close race.  Cantwell only won five counties in that race but racked up huge margins in King County.

As the 2000s wore on, the WA GOP continued the same losing strategy even as Seattle and King County got more populous.  The result is irrelevance in statewide races.  The WA GOP remains competitive at the district level.

I was living in Seattle at the time and remember that race well! I believe it took around 2 weeks and 1 or 2 recounts before the race was finally decided.

It was kind of shocking at the time given that WA lurched pretty far rightward in the '94 midterms and there were some pretty right-wing crazies running for statewide offices then: Linda Smith against Patty Murray in '98 and Ellen Craswell against Gary Locke for governor in '96. Is Pam Roach still haunting the state capitol these days?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on March 24, 2021, 11:38:08 PM
Washington Democrats are very loyal in a way that does make it structurally difficult for Republicans to breakthrough. This is true in Oregon and California as well (and increasingly in Nevada, Colorado ... maybe Arizona?)

I believe it is due to relatively high and consistent voter turnout, especially because Democrats rely on a voter based of college educated voters who turnout consistently. I think the only way to get Republican opportunities would be to completely shift the brand of the party a la Vermont's Phil Scott.

However I don't know if the WA GOP would ever be comfortable becoming an anti-Trumpist, moderate party. There is a large number of voters in Washington who dislike taxes and are pretty moderate (the left is very loud, but still a minority) so an environmentally savvy, low-tax, professional Republican could eventually take the helm... but only if the entire legislative GOP becomes less susceptible to big scary news stories and conspiracies like Culp.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on March 25, 2021, 07:25:58 PM
As someone who's recently moved to WA, I have to ask. What is wrong with the WA GOP that they're so irrelevant? Do they just have no somewhat competent candidates? Or is it more a branding issue? Gotta be some reason that they haven't won in literally decades.

Back in the 1980s and 1990s when Washington State was a swing state, the WA GOP M.O. was to run by demonizing King County in general and Seattle specifically.  This sometimes worked until growth in the Greater Seattle region rendered the strategy unworkable.  The sign the tipping point had been reached was when three-term incumbent U.S. Senator Slade Gorton was defeated by Maria Cantwell in 2000 in an ultra-close race.  Cantwell only won five counties in that race but racked up huge margins in King County.

As the 2000s wore on, the WA GOP continued the same losing strategy even as Seattle and King County got more populous.  The result is irrelevance in statewide races.  The WA GOP remains competitive at the district level.

I was living in Seattle at the time and remember that race well! I believe it took around 2 weeks and 1 or 2 recounts before the race was finally decided.

It was kind of shocking at the time given that WA lurched pretty far rightward in the '94 midterms and there were some pretty right-wing crazies running for statewide offices then: Linda Smith against Patty Murray in '98 and Ellen Craswell against Gary Locke for governor in '96. Is Pam Roach still haunting the state capitol these days?

Pistol packing Pam "Who moved my roses??!!!" Roach thankfully left the State Legislature in 2016 when she won a seat on the Pierce County Council.  She retired in 2020.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Interlocutor is just not there yet on March 25, 2021, 11:39:54 PM
Washington Democrats are very loyal in a way that does make it structurally difficult for Republicans to breakthrough. This is true in Oregon and California as well (and increasingly in Nevada, Colorado ... maybe Arizona?)

I believe it is due to relatively high and consistent voter turnout, especially because Democrats rely on a voter based of college educated voters who turnout consistently. I think the only way to get Republican opportunities would be to completely shift the brand of the party a la Vermont's Phil Scott.

However I don't know if the WA GOP would ever be comfortable becoming an anti-Trumpist, moderate party. There is a large number of voters in Washington who dislike taxes and are pretty moderate (the left is very loud, but still a minority) so an environmentally savvy, low-tax, professional Republican could eventually take the helm... but only if the entire legislative GOP becomes less susceptible to big scary news stories and conspiracies like Culp.

It's pretty remarkable how similar the WA Republican Party sounds like the CA Republican Party (Though I guess it shouldn't be given their both west coast states).

So basically, the WA GOP can’t really figure out to get a wide base of support in the state and it’s only going to get more difficult unless Seattle stops growing and becomes more economically depressed.

Not to mention Californians like me moving out there on a daily basis (Myself hopefully included soon)

Do Californians tend to move to Seattle, the surrounding cities, or the rural areas?


Anecdotally speaking, I'm looking at moving to anywhere in the Greater Seattle metro, with an emphasis on Olympia & Tacoma. I'm sure my list is very similar to other transplants.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on March 28, 2021, 11:38:23 AM

I have some hypotheses about how Republicans might be able to put together a winning coalition, but doing so requires some major re-thinking of the electoral playing field which I don't think the state party is willing to consider at this time.

Do tell!

Alright, here's one of my ideas on how WA Republicans could put together a winning statewide coalition:

The most important thing to note here is that, for all intents and purposes, the core three counties of King, Snohomish, and Pierce are where the winner is decided. If a Republican wants to win the state, they need to win Pierce by a fair margin and at the very least come very close to winning Snohomish if not win it outright. They also need to keep the margin manageable in King; the absolute outer limit of how much they can lose King by is probably about 65-35 depending on how well they do elsewhere.

Traditionally, this manifested as winning cities like Sammamish, Newcastle, University Place, Bothell, Edmonds, Mukilteo, Mill Creek, etc. Basically anywhere higher in income and/or touching water not in Seattle.

However, I don't believe (outside of a few exceptions like Wyman) that this is a feasible strategy for Republicans in the short-to-medium term. These areas are exactly the types of areas which swung extremely hard away from Trump and the current Republican Party. Some of them may be able to be won back for a competent moderate-type, but these types of voters tend to be much more ideological and polarized. Fighting for these voters is swimming upstream against the current.

Instead, flip the script. Lean into the demographic and broader electoral changes which are happening and focus on lower income voters. Give up places like Sammamish and Edmonds. The goal should be to win over every possible voter outside of the white educated UMC. Go after Hispanics, Asians, Arabs, renters, union workers, and low-income workers of all stripes. Carve a red swath up and down Highway 99 to win Everett and maybe even Lynnwood from the inside out. Court voters in south King County: Kent, Auburn, Renton, Des Moines, even SeaTac. Bring down margins in southeast Seattle, White Center, Tukwila. Go after Lakewood, east Tacoma.

Here is a map, based on calculations from this thread (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=332068.msg8020900#msg8020900), which shows the areas which have the highest prevalence of "simple" communitarian ideology and would likely be the richest targets as mentioned above: (Image Link) (http://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Comm-WA.png)

Winning these types of voters also has secondary effects in potentially winning places like Pasco, Spokane north of I-90, and Skagit County while shoring up Yakima County. Kitsap would also almost certainly be more amenable to this type of party, outside of Bainbridge. The tricky part would be welding these voters on to existing Republican strengths without alienating too many of your own.

How do you actually win over these voters? That's a separate question I have some thoughts on, which I may post later.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Frodo on March 28, 2021, 11:56:36 AM
I have some hypotheses about how Republicans might be able to put together a winning coalition, but doing so requires some major re-thinking of the electoral playing field which I don't think the state party is willing to consider at this time.

Do tell!

Alright, here's one of my ideas on how WA Republicans could put together a winning statewide coalition:

The most important thing to note here is that, for all intents and purposes, the core three counties of King, Snohomish, and Pierce are where the winner is decided. If a Republican wants to win the state, they need to win Pierce by a fair margin and at the very least come very close to winning Snohomish if not win it outright. They also need to keep the margin manageable in King; the absolute outer limit of how much they can lose King by is probably about 65-35 depending on how well they do elsewhere.

Traditionally, this manifested as winning cities like Sammamish, Newcastle, University Place, Bothell, Edmonds, Mukilteo, Mill Creek, etc. Basically anywhere higher in income and/or touching water not in Seattle.

However, I don't believe (outside of a few exceptions like Wyman) that this is a feasible strategy for Republicans in the short-to-medium term. These areas are exactly the types of areas which swung extremely hard away from Trump and the current Republican Party. Some of them may be able to be won back for a competent moderate-type, but these types of voters tend to be much more ideological and polarized. Fighting for these voters is swimming upstream against the current.

Instead, flip the script. Lean into the demographic and broader electoral changes which are happening and focus on lower income voters. Give up places like Sammamish and Edmonds. The goal should be to win over every possible voter outside of the white educated UMC. Go after Hispanics, Asians, Arabs, renters, union workers, and low-income workers of all stripes. Carve a red swath up and down Highway 99 to win Everett and maybe even Lynnwood from the inside out. Court voters in south King County: Kent, Auburn, Renton, Des Moines, even SeaTac. Bring down margins in southeast Seattle, White Center, Tukwila. Go after Lakewood, east Tacoma.

Here is a map, based on calculations from this thread (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=332068.msg8020900#msg8020900), which shows the areas which have the highest prevalence of "simple" communitarian ideology and would likely be the richest targets as mentioned above: (Image Link) (http://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Comm-WA.png)

Winning these types of voters also has secondary effects in potentially winning places like Pasco, Spokane north of I-90, and Skagit County while shoring up Yakima County. Kitsap would also almost certainly be more amenable to this type of party, outside of Bainbridge. The tricky part would be welding these voters on to existing Republican strengths without alienating too many of your own.

How do you actually win over these voters? That's a separate question I have some thoughts on, which I may post later.


I wait with bated breath.  I'd be curious to see your justification on why these voters would want to vote Republican.  Especially considering how the GOP has seemed to double down on white grievance politics.  Or is this predicated on developments at the national level, especially after Texas eventually flips to Democrats, forcing the GOP to finally change its strategy of white nationalism, opening the door to statewide efforts like what you are about to outline here?  


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on March 30, 2021, 11:33:19 PM

I have some hypotheses about how Republicans might be able to put together a winning coalition, but doing so requires some major re-thinking of the electoral playing field which I don't think the state party is willing to consider at this time.

Do tell!

Alright, here's one of my ideas on how WA Republicans could put together a winning statewide coalition:

The most important thing to note here is that, for all intents and purposes, the core three counties of King, Snohomish, and Pierce are where the winner is decided. If a Republican wants to win the state, they need to win Pierce by a fair margin and at the very least come very close to winning Snohomish if not win it outright. They also need to keep the margin manageable in King; the absolute outer limit of how much they can lose King by is probably about 65-35 depending on how well they do elsewhere.

Traditionally, this manifested as winning cities like Sammamish, Newcastle, University Place, Bothell, Edmonds, Mukilteo, Mill Creek, etc. Basically anywhere higher in income and/or touching water not in Seattle.

However, I don't believe (outside of a few exceptions like Wyman) that this is a feasible strategy for Republicans in the short-to-medium term. These areas are exactly the types of areas which swung extremely hard away from Trump and the current Republican Party. Some of them may be able to be won back for a competent moderate-type, but these types of voters tend to be much more ideological and polarized. Fighting for these voters is swimming upstream against the current.

Instead, flip the script. Lean into the demographic and broader electoral changes which are happening and focus on lower income voters. Give up places like Sammamish and Edmonds. The goal should be to win over every possible voter outside of the white educated UMC. Go after Hispanics, Asians, Arabs, renters, union workers, and low-income workers of all stripes. Carve a red swath up and down Highway 99 to win Everett and maybe even Lynnwood from the inside out. Court voters in south King County: Kent, Auburn, Renton, Des Moines, even SeaTac. Bring down margins in southeast Seattle, White Center, Tukwila. Go after Lakewood, east Tacoma.

Here is a map, based on calculations from this thread (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=332068.msg8020900#msg8020900), which shows the areas which have the highest prevalence of "simple" communitarian ideology and would likely be the richest targets as mentioned above: (Image Link) (http://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Comm-WA.png)

Winning these types of voters also has secondary effects in potentially winning places like Pasco, Spokane north of I-90, and Skagit County while shoring up Yakima County. Kitsap would also almost certainly be more amenable to this type of party, outside of Bainbridge. The tricky part would be welding these voters on to existing Republican strengths without alienating too many of your own.

How do you actually win over these voters? That's a separate question I have some thoughts on, which I may post later.

This concept probably would work in theory, but I believe a lot of the voters in question are very low turnout especially for state elections.

Also in my experience there is significant animosity in many of these communities between rural "Anglo" Washingtonians and Hispanic communities that may be difficult to overcome.

Especially because the elections for governor are paired with presidential elections perhaps the best way for the GOP to elect a governor is to put up a very palatable candidate and hope for a landslide for the GOP at a presidential level that makes WA closer?

Another plausible option is a recall election?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on April 01, 2021, 11:10:42 AM
Sawant Recall effort IS A GO!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on April 21, 2021, 07:26:17 PM
Culp is running for WA-04.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on April 22, 2021, 12:50:33 PM
I don't think Culp will be successful. Pretty much ensures an R-R race where Newhouse will surely pick up the 30% of the electorate that regularly votes D and thus win.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on April 22, 2021, 01:02:15 PM
Unless Newhouse somehow gets 3rd place in the top two primary, I don’t see Culp beating him.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Canis on May 09, 2021, 03:50:31 PM
Washington Democrats are very loyal in a way that does make it structurally difficult for Republicans to breakthrough. This is true in Oregon and California as well (and increasingly in Nevada, Colorado ... maybe Arizona?)

I believe it is due to relatively high and consistent voter turnout, especially because Democrats rely on a voter based of college educated voters who turnout consistently. I think the only way to get Republican opportunities would be to completely shift the brand of the party a la Vermont's Phil Scott.

However I don't know if the WA GOP would ever be comfortable becoming an anti-Trumpist, moderate party. There is a large number of voters in Washington who dislike taxes and are pretty moderate (the left is very loud, but still a minority) so an environmentally savvy, low-tax, professional Republican could eventually take the helm... but only if the entire legislative GOP becomes less susceptible to big scary news stories and conspiracies like Culp.

It's pretty remarkable how similar the WA Republican Party sounds like the CA Republican Party (Though I guess it shouldn't be given their both west coast states).

So basically, the WA GOP can’t really figure out to get a wide base of support in the state and it’s only going to get more difficult unless Seattle stops growing and becomes more economically depressed.

Not to mention Californians like me moving out there on a daily basis (Myself hopefully included soon)

Do Californians tend to move to Seattle, the surrounding cities, or the rural areas?


Anecdotally speaking, I'm looking at moving to anywhere in the Greater Seattle metro, with an emphasis on Olympia & Tacoma. I'm sure my list is very similar to other transplants.
Nice! Most California people I know looking to move are also looking at Seattle or the Seattle burbs I'm looking to go there too after I finish college which won't be for about another couple years or so unless I get into a school in Washington and am up for paying out of state tuition. But when I move I'm looking at Skagit and Whatcom Counties because I have deep family ties to that region I normally go up there once a year since I was a baby I used to go lobster fishing with my grandpa I love it there and the cities of Anacortes and Bellingham are really nice I'm not really a huge fan of the big city aesthetic so I'm probably gonna stay out of the Seattle metro but I also like how Skagit and Whatcom are positioned close enough to Vancouver Seattle and a couple of other big cities so its not far from a lot of em.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Interlocutor is just not there yet on May 10, 2021, 05:40:34 AM
/snip

Anecdotally speaking, I'm looking at moving to anywhere in the Greater Seattle metro, with an emphasis on Olympia & Tacoma. I'm sure my list is very similar to other transplants.
Nice! Most California people I know looking to move are also looking at Seattle or the Seattle burbs I'm looking to go there too after I finish college which won't be for about another couple years or so unless I get into a school in Washington and am up for paying out of state tuition. But when I move I'm looking at Skagit and Whatcom Counties because I have deep family ties to that region I normally go up there once a year since I was a baby I used to go lobster fishing with my grandpa I love it there and the cities of Anacortes and Bellingham are really nice I'm not really a huge fan of the big city aesthetic so I'm probably gonna stay out of the Seattle metro but I also like how Skagit and Whatcom are positioned close enough to Vancouver Seattle and a couple of other big cities so its not far from a lot of em.

Having lived in SoCal all my life, I'm tired of the hustle-and-bustle and suburban jungle aesthetic. However, I'd still like to be near a big metro. Bellingham looks and sounds really interesting, but Olympia has the benefit (Or drawback to some folks) of being within 2 hours of Portland. No matter where/if I end up in Washington, I think it'll be a breath of fresh air (Figuratively & literally).

This is all talk though. I've never been to the PNW, though I'll be traveling up there for 2 weeks in August. I'll try and hit up Bellingham, but it may be a little too far out from my plans. It's also just as likely that I'll end up moving to Sacramento in leiu of Washington or Oregon. Either way, I don't see myself in SoCal 5 years from now.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Canis on May 10, 2021, 11:36:34 AM
/snip

Anecdotally speaking, I'm looking at moving to anywhere in the Greater Seattle metro, with an emphasis on Olympia & Tacoma. I'm sure my list is very similar to other transplants.
Nice! Most California people I know looking to move are also looking at Seattle or the Seattle burbs I'm looking to go there too after I finish college which won't be for about another couple years or so unless I get into a school in Washington and am up for paying out of state tuition. But when I move I'm looking at Skagit and Whatcom Counties because I have deep family ties to that region I normally go up there once a year since I was a baby I used to go lobster fishing with my grandpa I love it there and the cities of Anacortes and Bellingham are really nice I'm not really a huge fan of the big city aesthetic so I'm probably gonna stay out of the Seattle metro but I also like how Skagit and Whatcom are positioned close enough to Vancouver Seattle and a couple of other big cities so its not far from a lot of em.

Having lived in SoCal all my life, I'm tired of the hustle-and-bustle and suburban jungle aesthetic. However, I'd still like to be near a big metro. Bellingham looks and sounds really interesting, but Olympia has the benefit (Or drawback to some folks) of being within 2 hours of Portland. No matter where/if I end up in Washington, I think it'll be a breath of fresh air (Figuratively & literally).

This is all talk though. I've never been to the PNW, though I'll be traveling up there for 2 weeks in August. I'll try and hit up Bellingham, but it may be a little too far out from my plans. It's also just as likely that I'll end up moving to Sacramento in leiu of Washington or Oregon. Either way, I don't see myself in SoCal 5 years from now.

Nice! Hope you have a fun trip!  WA is a really beautiful state also once you get out of Seattle the lack of traffic is going to feel amazing lol compared to Socal that's another reason I really wanna live their in Downtown Seattle the traffic is a little LA esique but the rest of the state has very clear roads. The Air Qaulity is also a lot cleaner than in Los Angeles. Let us know how your trip goes in August!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 11, 2021, 02:59:46 PM
If you're looking for something in-between a small town and the Big City, Bellingham can't be beat. Much better than Olympia - though there are a lot of good state jobs in Oly, so that's also a different kind of draw. If you're wanting to try Seattle-on-the-cheap for a bit and also take a break from suburbia, then Tacoma proper is great. Solid downtown core + nearby neighborhoods with lots of cute older buildings, stunning views of the Sound and Rainier, plus better food/bars/culture than either Bellingham or Olympia. Just don't try to commute to Seattle.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on May 11, 2021, 03:24:37 PM
Tacoma has improved over the past few years, and the northern part, especially near Old Town, is quite nice. It's a very different city once you travel south of 6th Ave, but 6th Ave itself has some good restaurants. Just beware of traffic if you try to head north. Bellingham is cool, but it's quite a drive from Seattle, so that's one thing to keep in mind. If you want a suburban sort of place that's less crowded than Seattle but not too far away, Edmonds and Lake Forest Park are nice as well, and quite scenic. I personally wouldn't recommend living in Olympia, since it often has a lot of traffic and not nearly as much to offer as Tacoma, but if you don't mind a bit of traffic, it's not necessarily a bad choice.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Interlocutor is just not there yet on May 12, 2021, 08:58:09 PM
Thanks all!

I've had Tacoma on my radar and I'll be checking it out on my trip (Along with Olympia), but it seems more like the type of 'concrete jungle' I'm wanting to avoid. Isn't the Tacoma Aroma still around (albeit on a smaller scale)? And does Olympia have a rep of a boring town or something?

My naivety might be showing, but I feel like Puget Sound traffic wouldn't be as sluggish as LA/OC traffic. Nonetheless, it's a concern of mine but not as much as the a**hole drivers out here speeding everywhere and refusing to use a turn signal :p. I would say Washington drivers aren't as bad, but that may change if us Californians keep migrating north.

I haven't looked into much else north of Seattle. Lake Forest Park looks very nice. And given all the praise, I might have to take a detour to Bellingham!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 13, 2021, 02:49:33 PM
Well what do you consider to constitute a concrete jungle?

Most of Seattle proper could be hardly described as how I imagine that to be. Most neighborhoods have strong urban tree canopies. Single family homes and lawns abound, whether they're on streets that are in a rectilinear grid or spaghetti style.

And no, Tacoma aroma is not an issue unless you're in the industrial port area. Yes, Olympia certainly has a bit of boring reputation, again, thanks to it housing a lot of well-paying bureaucracy state jobs. If you vibe with Bellingham, you're going to have to move there ;) it has that effect on people.

I'm sure LA/OC traffic is worse in aggregate because people tend to live much further from where they work, that's why you should definitely be sure to find housing close to your place of employment. Commuting from Everett to Seattle or Tacoma to Seattle is probably LA-esque, but the commute from the southern King County suburbs to downtown Seattle would probably not seem so bad in comparison to LA. The Puget Sound region is N/S in orientation, so it's a given if you are going up or down, you'll end up hitting traffic.

No one has mentioned Bremerton, or if you have the money for it, Bainbridge, which are both on the water and 30 minute ferry rides to the heart of Seattle. Lots of forest out there.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on May 13, 2021, 05:31:37 PM
Inslee lifts the mask mandate for the vaccinated.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Interlocutor is just not there yet on May 13, 2021, 07:54:04 PM
Inslee lifts the mask mandate for the vaccinated.

Most importantly, he's lifting most COVID restrictions by June 30.

Not bad for a state that, in the last month, said were in the beginnings of another surge & was pushing counties back a phase/tier.


Inslee: Washington to lift COVID-19 restrictions by June 30 — and right now, mask rules eased for vaccinated people

Quote
OLYMPIA — Washington’s broad COVID-19 restrictions will lift by June 30, if not sooner. And starting immediately, fully-vaccinated people will have fewer requirements for wearing masks, and can attend weddings, funerals and sporting events without capacity limits applying to them.

Gov. Jay Inslee’s announcements in a news conference Thursday marked by far the most dramatic easing of restrictions since the coronavirus pandemic roared into Washington last spring.

It came just hours after the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced a leap toward a return to pre-pandemic life,  saying fully vaccinated people could stop wearing masks outdoors in crowds and in most indoor settings.

Sitting down to his conference table in the Capitol, Inslee removed his face mask, a staple worn at public appearances since end of last June, and announced Washington will lift the state’s broad COVID-19 restrictions by June 30.

A full reopening would come sooner if 70% or more of state residents over the age of 16 have gotten at least their first shot before then, said the governor. Currently, 57% of Washingtonians 16 and up have gotten at least one shot, according to Inslee’s office.
[...]

Washington will also adopt the CDC guidelines, Inslee said, and starting immediately, the state will ease restrictions for groups of fully vaccinated people.

For example, events like outdoor and indoor sports won’t have capacity limits for the number of attendees who have been vaccinated. Likewise, weddings and funerals will be allowed at full capacity if the attendees have all been vaccinated.

In the meantime, starting Tuesday and until a full reopening date, all of Washington’s 39 counties will be in the third and least-restrictive phase of the governor’s current “Healthy Washington” plan.

Thursday’s announcement marks a turning point for Washington after more than a year of unprecedented restrictions to curb a pandemic that has fundamentally reordered social and economic life.

Most counties — including King and Snohomish — are currently in the third phase, which allows indoor spaces like stores, venues, restaurants and fitness centers to operate at 50% capacity.

Thursday’s developments may bring a measure of certainty after an uncertain few months where Washington experienced a fourth surge. Just two weeks ago, King County was seeing public-health metrics that would have driven indoor occupancy down to 25% under the Healthy Washington plan.

Meanwhile, a handful of counties — including Pierce — last month rolled back to tighter restrictions amid a surge in new coronavirus cases.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/inslee-washington-to-lift-covid-19-restrictions-by-june-30-sooner-if-vaccination-goal-reached/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Interlocutor is just not there yet on May 13, 2021, 09:34:17 PM
Well what do you consider to constitute a concrete jungle?

No one has mentioned Bremerton, or if you have the money for it, Bainbridge, which are both on the water and 30 minute ferry rides to the heart of Seattle. Lots of forest out there.

1. Concrete jungle may not have been the right phrase. I'm more talking population density. Though based on my research, even Greater Seattle would be less dense than my current residency (NW Riverside County).

2. I've had Bremerton on my radar. Looks nice, love its proximity to Tacoma/Olympia/Seattle/Portland and an hour commuting on the ferry sounds more pleasant than an hour of stop-and-go traffic. I'm not sure as well from the lack of mentions. Do they have a bad/boring rep?


Here's how I'd rank my interest in Washington metros at the present time. I expect it to change a lot once I actually venture up there.

1. King County (Not Seattle proper)
2. Olympia/Lacey
3. Bremerton
4. Bellingham
5. Tacoma


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on May 23, 2021, 12:02:22 PM
Went to a Snohomish County GOP rally yesterday and had the "pleasure" of listening to Loren Culp speak. He led with "How many of you actually think Biden won?" and dropped a "I won more votes than any Republican in Washington state history" line before trashing Kim Wyman (who, of course, won more votes than him). Made me seethe a bit. Absolute joke of a candidate who is everything wrong with the party.

Some of the local candidates were decent if generic (the county and city elected officials were pretty solid), some were a bit kooky (one told a bizarre story about being contacted by a Nigerian Pentecostal woman who said God told her to contact her and that she needed to spend the night at her place in order to take back America), a couple were clearly in the Q camp (save our children from the secret govt pedos and all), and some not-all-there protestor with a bullhorn shouted over everyone from time to time calling Republicans pedos. About what I expected, all told.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Canis on May 23, 2021, 12:25:58 PM
Went to a Snohomish County GOP rally yesterday and had the "pleasure" of listening to Loren Culp speak. He led with "How many of you actually think Biden won?" and dropped a "I won more votes than any Republican in Washington state history" line before trashing Kim Wyman (who, of course, won more votes than him). Made me seethe a bit. Absolute joke of a candidate who is everything wrong with the party.

Some of the local candidates were decent if generic (the county and city elected officials were pretty solid), some were kooks (one told a bizarre story about being contacted by a Nigerian Pentecostal woman who said God told her to contact her and that she needed to spend the night at her place in order to take back America), a couple were clearly in the Q camp (save our children from the secret govt pedos and all), and some not-all-there protestor with a bullhorn shouted over everyone from time to time calling Republicans pedos. About what I expected, all told.
Do you plan on getting involved with the WA Gop? Just saying if you wanted to with your knowledge of political demographics you could try political consulting that's something I've been looking to do


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on June 23, 2021, 11:38:24 AM
I'm surprised this wasn't posted earlier, but there was an ALG poll for Seattle mayor done May 10-16 (500 respondents).  The primary is August 3.

Harrell 23%
Gonzalez 11%
Echohawk 7%
Farrell 7%
Sixkiller 5%
Houston 3%

https://www.postalley.org/2021/05/28/an-early-poll-in-the-seattle-mayors-race-with-one-big-surprise/

I'm hoping this is a sign of some coalescence around Harrell as the sane candidate.  If the poll is to be believed, he'll easily make the top two.  He's definitely my pick and I plan to volunteer for his campaign in the general.

My thoughts on some of the other candidates:

Andrew Grant Houston -- literally a scam campaign.  His campaign has been soliciting donations by gong around and asking people to donate to "end homelessness" and his justification is that by electing him mayor we will end homelessness.  The only things I ever hear about him in the media are him complaining about how unfair the race is.  This guy is a Paperboy Prince tier candidate and I'm not sure why he gets taken seriously.

Sixkiller:  I don't know why this guy is running.  The city pretty much unanimously wants to move on from Durkan.  If you're on the left you probably call her "Gas Mask Jenny" and think she's the devil incarnate.  If you're in the center you probably think she's weak and ineffectual and a lousy politician who lets the city council trample all over her.  If you're on the right you don't live in Seattle.  Ironically Durkan has gotten significantly firmer on encampment removals ever since the city council got rid of the nav team last summer, which is to her credit.  But I don't see why anyone connected to the Durkan administration would think they have a shot in this race, especially a no-name like Sixkiller.

Farrell:  Farrell ran for mayor last time too, and I remember not liking her because she took some really lefty positions, but a lot of people in hindsight decided they loved her more than the actual final two candidates.  Apparently that was all malarkey given she's only at 7%.  My understanding is that she's really big with the biker/transit groups, which is irrelevant to me because I walk or run everywhere.

Echohawk:  I have no idea who this person is, but she's raised an enormous amount of money.  Early on I was under the impression that she was backed by Seattle's leading voice of sanity, ex-mayor Tim Burgess, but I was mistaken and she appears to be running as basically Lorena Gonzalez lite.

Gonzalez:  The quintessential PNW politician, in the worst way possible.  Gonzalez has been a pathetic leader of the Seattle City Council, one of the worst political bodies in America.  The SCC loves to waste its time passing all sorts of broad, sweeping, revolutionary legislation that's either completely empty rhetoric, or full of unconstitutional clauses making it guaranteed to get shot down by the courts.  Then they can all brag about all the great stuff they've done and point fingers at the courts for ruining their progressive utopia.  Meanwhile they've done all sorts of very real, tangible, incredibly damaging stuff, primarily to satisfy the activist groups that are their political base.  Reckless, immature, and incredibly frustrating, they're also incredibly unpopular.  Gonzalez thinks she can win by running on that record.  Just kidding!  She's running a campaign that's almost entirely based on identity politics, name recognition, and the sense that she's the "default" choice, which will only be enhanced when she inevitably gets the endorsements of a bunch of her fellow councilmembers.  She's been considered the prohibitive favorite ever since she jumped in but Harrell is a serious challenger.


At this point I will be shocked if the top two aren't Harrell and Gonzalez.  They were relatively collegial when they served on the council together, but I expect the campaign to involve lots of vicious, ugly, false attacks on Harrell from Gonzalez-aligned groups that she'll pretend she's never heard of, while she promotes herself as the squeaky-clean progressive minority woman you can feel good about voting for.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on July 17, 2021, 10:22:13 PM
Some more interesting news from the home front.

For those who haven't been keeping up, we've got three main races:
  • Sawant recall
  • Seattle mayor
  • City council position 9

There's actually two at large city council seats up for grabs, but Theresa Mosqueda doesn't have any serious competition for re-election to position 8.  Position 9, vacated by Lorena Gonzalez to run for mayor (and, if she loses, AG), is the one up for grabs.

So here's what we've got:

Sawant recall

Based on what I've seen, I was skeptical that they would be able to gather the 10,500 signatures needed in the time frame, but it looks like they will succeed, and Sawant recall will make it to the ballot.  There hasn't been any polling on this, sadly, but I honestly have no idea what to expect.

Sawant is trying some weird 11th-hour gambit where she's gathering signatures for the recall petition for some strange reason.  Sawant claims it's to force them to meet an earlier deadline, which would supposedly be to her advantage, but this doesn't make any sense because the recall campaign has complete control over when they turn in their petition.  The actual reason is a mystery.  Most people think she wants to "gather signatures" and then throw them away.  My personal opinion, after years of watching Sawant shenanigans, is that she wants to create the talking point of "the recall wouldn't even have made the ballot if not for me."  Anyway it's truly bizarre that Sawant is campaigning to get herself removed from office.

Seattle mayor

Reminder that we're currently in a jungle primary where the top two advance.  The Seattle Times did a poll with Change Research, and just like last month's ALG poll, Bruce Harrell has a strong lead, while Lorena Gonzalez looks like his mostly likely opponent:

Harrell 20%
Gonzalez 12%
Echohawk 10%
Farrell 6%
Houston 6%
Sixkiller 5%

Very embarrassing for Jenny that her deputy mayor Casey Sixkiller is running behind meme-tier candidate Houston.  It's also embarrassing that Lorena Gonzalez, who was supposed to be the prohibitive favorite, is now in danger of falling behind political amateur Colleen Echohawk.

City council position 9

Nikkita Oliver (they/them) ran for mayor five years ago as basically Sawant's protege, and made a complete fool of themself before losing badly, so I thought at the time that we'd never hear from them again.  Oh was I wrong.  Oliver made a big name for themself as the queen of CHAZ, and somehow managed to be the only person to come away from that fiasco unscathed.

Oliver's competition for the seat is Brianna Thomas, basically Gonzalez's second-in-command and her designated replacement, and Sara Nelson, local small business owner and a regular face in Seattle politics.  The Change Research poll is as follows:

Oliver 26%
Nelson 11%
Thomas 6%

On the one hand, this looks like a runaway victory for Oliver.  On the other, Oliver is a known quantity in Seattle politics, so it's hard to imagine they'll pull many undecideds.  So I don't have a clear read on this race.  Nelson isn't a very good politician and was visibly tipsy during one of the candidate forums, so if she makes it to the general she'll probably accidentally use she/her pronouns to refer to Oliver and get crucified.

Other races

There are two other races that could get interesting.

I said Theresa Mosqueda didn't have any serious competition for her 8th position seat, but the Seattle Times poll only has her at 26%, with 55% undecided.  Mosqueda should be very well-known so that means there's a lot of people who know her, but don't want to vote for her again.  Put that alongside the low numbers for Gonzalez and this could be a warning sign for some serious anti-council sentiment, maybe a good sign for whichever nobody ends up as Mosqueda's opponent.

Pete Holmes may actually be the worst elected official in America, but for most of this year it looked like he would cruise to re-election unopposed.  Now, he has two challengers.  The first is Republican Ann Davison-Sattler, and the second is Nicole Thomas-Kennedy.  Thomas-Kennedy is an interesting candidate because she's (somehow) managing to run to Pete Holmes' left.  This is pretty unbelievable because Holmes literally doesn't do his job of prosecuting crimes at all.  But Thomas-Kennedy's platform is, why does "crime" exist at all?

The Seattle Times poll shows a tight race:

Holmes 16%
Thomas-Kennedy 14%
Davison-Sattler 14%

To be clear, I expect Holmes to easily win re-election.  But it is interesting that once again the incumbent has a terrible showing in the early primary polls.  I'd like to think this is a sign of some serious buyer's remorse after the extremist slate dominated in the 2019 elections, and maybe we can get rid of some of these morons.  I made my first ever political donation to a Republican in this race.  I'd rather eat my own hands than vote for Holmes, but that's what I'd have to do if Thomas-Kennedy is his opponent.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on July 28, 2021, 02:18:04 PM
It looks like we now know why Sawant wanted to gather signatures for the Recall: she put together enough signatures to allegedly put them over the top, and now she can spend all her time claiming they have the signatures but are refusing to submit them for (insert shady reason here).

Of course the actual reason they haven't submitted her "signatures" is that a lot of them are most likely invalid or spoiled in some way.  Recall campaign is still recruiting signature-gatherers, they called me up just yesterday.

Either way it looks like this is going to get on the ballot, with the main question being one of timing.  Sawant is doing a good job muddying the waters with conspiracy talk to mute what would otherwise be a huge political victory moment for the Recall campaign.

https://www.capitolhillseattle.com/2021/07/sawant-recall-campaigns-continue-to-duke-it-out-as-deadline-for-november-ballot-approaches/


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: lfromnj on August 05, 2021, 06:49:41 PM
LOL the new DA(City Attorney) of Seattle maybe someone who tweeted this


The incumbent DA is currently 3rd and the top 2 is this woman and a Republican.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on August 05, 2021, 08:16:13 PM
Yeah I've been waiting to update because the extremists always wait until the last minute to vote so normies like me always get excited on election night and then let down when the results swing by 10% or more following the mail-in returns.

It looks like the general election will be as follows:

City Attorney
The unexpected headliner of the election will feature an absolutely insane Twitter lunatic vs. a Republican.  Nicole Thomas-Kennedy is a 2000-follower Twitter nobody running on a platform of abolishing the police, abolishing prison, and refusing to prosecute any misdemeanors.  Since the entire point of the city attorney office is to prosecute misdemeanors, this is effectively a platform of terminating the office of city attorney and legalizing crime in Seattle.  She is also a complete Marxist lunatic with a solid track record of celebrating property destruction and saying utterly idiotic things.  My guess is she will win in a landslide since her opponent, Ann Davison-Sattler, is a completely sane and normal person who left the Democratic Party so she could run for Lieutenant Governor.  So all NTK has to do is say "eeeeeek! Republican!" even though Davison is only a "Republican" in Seattle.

The reason this race is so interesting is because the incumbent, the loathsome Pete Holmes, lost.  If you had asked me before this election what one outcome I would long for the most, it would be the defeat of Pete Holmes, the worst elected official in America.  But that was a hell of a rabbit's paw moment, because while Holmes' career is almost certainly over, he's likely to be replaced by the new worst elected official in America, a lunatic who literally wants to legalize all crime.

This race is utterly terrifying to me as NTK winning would be a disaster for our city.  But I'm pretty sure she will win because reeeeeee Republican

Mayor
As expected, Bruce Harrell and Lorena Gonzalez cleared the field.  This race is going to be a complete f---ing mess and I am really not looking forward to it.

City Council 9
In another race I'm really not looking forward to, Kshama Sawant's protege Nikkita Oliver and local brewery owner Sara Nelson are running neck-and-neck.  Oliver is basically running on the same platform as NTK -- abolish everything, legalize crime, destroy all businesses, eat the rich anyone who owns property.  Oliver getting on the council is less dangerous because they would be only one of 9 votes.  But along with Sawant and Morales, the lunatic bloc grows larger every year.  They're only 2 votes and a friendly mayor away from being able to pass legislation making it legal to steal from anyone who has a job.  If you think I'm exaggerating, you don't live in Seattle.

Nelson is a reasonable person, but a very poor politician, whereas Oliver pretends to be a professor/attorney but is actually just a career activist with plenty of experience whipping up crowds and delivering well-honed applause lines.  If I were Nelson I would find some excuse to just skip all the debates and make the race a referendum on Nikkita Oliver.

Sawant Recall
This is likely to be on the general election ballot (exactly which ballot it's on has been artificially turned into a controversial topic by the increasingly desperate Sawant campaign) and should be very interesting to watch. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on August 05, 2021, 08:20:49 PM
LOL the new DA(City Attorney) of Seattle maybe someone who tweeted this

It's funny if you don't live in Seattle but as someone who does live here and has to deal with crime run amok, the idea of us putting someone who wants to "abolish misdemeanors" in charge of our city's criminal prosecution system is a direct threat to my day-to-day life.

That would essentially be legalizing all the quality-of-life crimes that are rampant in this city.  Assault is a misdemeanor as long as it's not life-threatening.  Property destruction (which she celebrates) is a misdemeanor.  Smashing windows is a misdemeanor.  "Unintentional" arson is a misdemeanor.  Breaking into someone's car is a misdemeanor.  Burglary is a misdemeanor.  Package theft is a misdemeanor.  Harassment is a misdemeanor.  Domestic violence is usually a misdemeanor.  Indecent exposure is a misdemeanor.  And even the more severe versions of these crimes, which by rights ought to be felonies, regularly get downgraded to misdemeanors.

Yet if you look at her Twitter, she tweets out stuff like "picking blackberries is a misdemeanor, I think we should stop punishing misdemeanors" as though we're locking up people for picking blackberries.

F---ing DUIs are a misdemeanor in this state.  So it's no exaggeration to say that we have a city attorney candidate running on a platform of legalizing DUI.  Like what the f--- is wrong with this city.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 06, 2021, 09:48:13 PM
Cinyc has election night precinct maps of the Seattle mayoral and city attorney primaries up here (https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2021/08/06/weekend-open-thread-for-august-6-8-2021/#comments). The map is making me feel a bit better about Davison's prospects in the general. It looks like Holmes won a bunch of precincts in Seattle's more diverse southeast, a big patch just north of Capitol Hill where Davison came in second, the south end of West Seattle, and a few other scattering spots. I feel all of those areas could potentially split more toward Davison than NTK, maybe?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on August 06, 2021, 11:46:33 PM
Cinyc has election night precinct maps of the Seattle mayoral and city attorney primaries up here (https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2021/08/06/weekend-open-thread-for-august-6-8-2021/#comments). The map is making me feel a bit better about Davison's prospects in the general. It looks like Holmes won a bunch of precincts in Seattle's more diverse southeast, a big patch just north of Capitol Hill where Davison came in second, the south end of West Seattle, and a few other scattering spots. I feel all of those areas could potentially split more toward Davison than NTK, maybe?

Yeah that's an interesting map.  It looks like there are a lot of Harrell/Holmes voters.  Maybe a lot of people just weren't familiar with the rather obscure job of city attorney and simply voted for the incumbent with a whole bunch of endorsements?  I really can't see the good people of Madrona, Laurelhurst, Leschi and Lakewood voting for someone who not only wants to legalize all property crime, but openly celebrates it.

I'm also hopeful thinking of the Wheeler-Iannarone race.  Sara Iannarone is my comp for NTK, and she lost to a man with a 26% approval rating.  A bonafide lunatic who worships communist mass-murderers was a bridge too far for Portland voters.

I'm sure the 43rd Dems, Union PACs and local alt media will be all-in on trying to portray Ann Davison as literally Trump because of the (R) next to her name.  She needs to get a lot of money fast so she can turn this race into a referendum on NTK, otherwise it will become a referendum on voting for a Republican.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Interlocutor is just not there yet on August 07, 2021, 01:35:56 PM
/snip

Anecdotally speaking, I'm looking at moving to anywhere in the Greater Seattle metro, with an emphasis on Olympia & Tacoma. I'm sure my list is very similar to other transplants.
Nice! Most California people I know looking to move are also looking at Seattle or the Seattle burbs I'm looking to go there too after I finish college which won't be for about another couple years or so unless I get into a school in Washington and am up for paying out of state tuition. But when I move I'm looking at Skagit and Whatcom Counties because I have deep family ties to that region I normally go up there once a year since I was a baby I used to go lobster fishing with my grandpa I love it there and the cities of Anacortes and Bellingham are really nice I'm not really a huge fan of the big city aesthetic so I'm probably gonna stay out of the Seattle metro but I also like how Skagit and Whatcom are positioned close enough to Vancouver Seattle and a couple of other big cities so its not far from a lot of em.

Having lived in SoCal all my life, I'm tired of the hustle-and-bustle and suburban jungle aesthetic. However, I'd still like to be near a big metro. Bellingham looks and sounds really interesting, but Olympia has the benefit (Or drawback to some folks) of being within 2 hours of Portland. No matter where/if I end up in Washington, I think it'll be a breath of fresh air (Figuratively & literally).

This is all talk though. I've never been to the PNW, though I'll be traveling up there for 2 weeks in August. I'll try and hit up Bellingham, but it may be a little too far out from my plans. It's also just as likely that I'll end up moving to Sacramento in leiu of Washington or Oregon. Either way, I don't see myself in SoCal 5 years from now.

Nice! Hope you have a fun trip!  WA is a really beautiful state also once you get out of Seattle the lack of traffic is going to feel amazing lol compared to Socal that's another reason I really wanna live their in Downtown Seattle the traffic is a little LA esique but the rest of the state has very clear roads. The Air Qaulity is also a lot cleaner than in Los Angeles. Let us know how your trip goes in August!

Given the mass hysteria that seems to have fermented in this thread, I take it now isn't a good time for my trip report where I have positive things to say about Seattle & the state of Washington?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on August 07, 2021, 06:19:19 PM
Dear god, please mummy Sawant lower those housing prices so I can be with my people.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Canis on August 07, 2021, 08:05:43 PM
/snip

Anecdotally speaking, I'm looking at moving to anywhere in the Greater Seattle metro, with an emphasis on Olympia & Tacoma. I'm sure my list is very similar to other transplants.
Nice! Most California people I know looking to move are also looking at Seattle or the Seattle burbs I'm looking to go there too after I finish college which won't be for about another couple years or so unless I get into a school in Washington and am up for paying out of state tuition. But when I move I'm looking at Skagit and Whatcom Counties because I have deep family ties to that region I normally go up there once a year since I was a baby I used to go lobster fishing with my grandpa I love it there and the cities of Anacortes and Bellingham are really nice I'm not really a huge fan of the big city aesthetic so I'm probably gonna stay out of the Seattle metro but I also like how Skagit and Whatcom are positioned close enough to Vancouver Seattle and a couple of other big cities so its not far from a lot of em.

Having lived in SoCal all my life, I'm tired of the hustle-and-bustle and suburban jungle aesthetic. However, I'd still like to be near a big metro. Bellingham looks and sounds really interesting, but Olympia has the benefit (Or drawback to some folks) of being within 2 hours of Portland. No matter where/if I end up in Washington, I think it'll be a breath of fresh air (Figuratively & literally).

This is all talk though. I've never been to the PNW, though I'll be traveling up there for 2 weeks in August. I'll try and hit up Bellingham, but it may be a little too far out from my plans. It's also just as likely that I'll end up moving to Sacramento in leiu of Washington or Oregon. Either way, I don't see myself in SoCal 5 years from now.

Nice! Hope you have a fun trip!  WA is a really beautiful state also once you get out of Seattle the lack of traffic is going to feel amazing lol compared to Socal that's another reason I really wanna live their in Downtown Seattle the traffic is a little LA esique but the rest of the state has very clear roads. The Air Qaulity is also a lot cleaner than in Los Angeles. Let us know how your trip goes in August!

Given the mass hysteria that seems to have fermented in this thread, I take it now isn't a good time for my trip report where I have positive things to say about Seattle & the state of Washington?
 
I think saying positive things about Seattle will be a welcome break from the hysteria lmao


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on August 07, 2021, 09:43:24 PM
/snip

Anecdotally speaking, I'm looking at moving to anywhere in the Greater Seattle metro, with an emphasis on Olympia & Tacoma. I'm sure my list is very similar to other transplants.
Nice! Most California people I know looking to move are also looking at Seattle or the Seattle burbs I'm looking to go there too after I finish college which won't be for about another couple years or so unless I get into a school in Washington and am up for paying out of state tuition. But when I move I'm looking at Skagit and Whatcom Counties because I have deep family ties to that region I normally go up there once a year since I was a baby I used to go lobster fishing with my grandpa I love it there and the cities of Anacortes and Bellingham are really nice I'm not really a huge fan of the big city aesthetic so I'm probably gonna stay out of the Seattle metro but I also like how Skagit and Whatcom are positioned close enough to Vancouver Seattle and a couple of other big cities so its not far from a lot of em.

Having lived in SoCal all my life, I'm tired of the hustle-and-bustle and suburban jungle aesthetic. However, I'd still like to be near a big metro. Bellingham looks and sounds really interesting, but Olympia has the benefit (Or drawback to some folks) of being within 2 hours of Portland. No matter where/if I end up in Washington, I think it'll be a breath of fresh air (Figuratively & literally).

This is all talk though. I've never been to the PNW, though I'll be traveling up there for 2 weeks in August. I'll try and hit up Bellingham, but it may be a little too far out from my plans. It's also just as likely that I'll end up moving to Sacramento in leiu of Washington or Oregon. Either way, I don't see myself in SoCal 5 years from now.

Nice! Hope you have a fun trip!  WA is a really beautiful state also once you get out of Seattle the lack of traffic is going to feel amazing lol compared to Socal that's another reason I really wanna live their in Downtown Seattle the traffic is a little LA esique but the rest of the state has very clear roads. The Air Qaulity is also a lot cleaner than in Los Angeles. Let us know how your trip goes in August!

Given the mass hysteria that seems to have fermented in this thread, I take it now isn't a good time for my trip report where I have positive things to say about Seattle & the state of Washington?
 
I think saying positive things about Seattle will be a welcome break from the hysteria lmao

It’s kind of funny. Back when I was in middle/high school, Seattle was largely unknown to a large portion of the population, or people would immediately bring up the movie “Sleepless in Seattle.” Then, from 2010 to 2015, everyone was raving about how Seattle was the best place ever and wanted to move there. Since 2015, though, people have been pretty much constantly s****ing on it, about how it’s the most intolerant, depressing, fake, and antisocial place ever (and, of course, many complain about its politics.) I wonder if there’s anyone who has a relatively neutral or mixed view of the area, lol.

Anyway, my #hottake is that the City Attorney race is at least Lean Davison, closer to Likely than Toss-Up. Kennedy didn’t finish that far ahead of Davison, and I have a hard time seeing Kennedy getting a majority of the Holmes votes, since even many fairly liberal people find her to be a bridge too far.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on August 07, 2021, 10:03:25 PM
Cinyc has election night precinct maps of the Seattle mayoral and city attorney primaries up here (https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2021/08/06/weekend-open-thread-for-august-6-8-2021/#comments). The map is making me feel a bit better about Davison's prospects in the general. It looks like Holmes won a bunch of precincts in Seattle's more diverse southeast, a big patch just north of Capitol Hill where Davison came in second, the south end of West Seattle, and a few other scattering spots. I feel all of those areas could potentially split more toward Davison than NTK, maybe?

Yeah that's an interesting map.  It looks like there are a lot of Harrell/Holmes voters.  Maybe a lot of people just weren't familiar with the rather obscure job of city attorney and simply voted for the incumbent with a whole bunch of endorsements?  I really can't see the good people of Madrona, Laurelhurst, Leschi and Lakewood voting for someone who not only wants to legalize all property crime, but openly celebrates it.

I'm also hopeful thinking of the Wheeler-Iannarone race.  Sara Iannarone is my comp for NTK, and she lost to a man with a 26% approval rating.  A bonafide lunatic who worships communist mass-murderers was a bridge too far for Portland voters.

I'm sure the 43rd Dems, Union PACs and local alt media will be all-in on trying to portray Ann Davison as literally Trump because of the (R) next to her name.  She needs to get a lot of money fast so she can turn this race into a referendum on NTK, otherwise it will become a referendum on voting for a Republican.
Can't she just switch party and claim to not have voted for trump ?
Dear god, please mummy Sawant lower those housing prices so I can be with my people.
Imagine simping for a communist.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Continential on August 07, 2021, 10:17:35 PM
Dear god, please mummy Sawant lower those housing prices so I can be with my people.
Imagine simping for a communist.
PSOL is a socialist.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on August 07, 2021, 10:21:03 PM
Dear god, please mummy Sawant lower those housing prices so I can be with my people.
Imagine simping for a communist.
PSOL is a socialist.
I understand my interests and don’t want my @$$ evicted.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on August 07, 2021, 11:20:50 PM
It’s kind of funny. Back when I was in middle/high school, Seattle was largely unknown to a large portion of the population, or people would immediately bring up the movie “Sleepless in Seattle.” Then, from 2010 to 2015, everyone was raving about how Seattle was the best place ever and wanted to move there. Since 2015, though, people have been pretty much constantly s****ing on it, about how it’s the most intolerant, depressing, fake, and antisocial place ever (and, of course, many complain about its politics.) I wonder if there’s anyone who has a relatively neutral or mixed view of the area, lol.

I moved here in 2013, and people constantly ask me what I think of Seattle.  And of course my family always asks me when I'm going to move back east.  My opinion of Seattle is pretty mixed.

Pros:
  • No income tax!
  • Weather is amazing
  • No mosquitos means you can actually enjoy sunny weather!
  • Easily walkable
  • The food is so f---ing good
  • Excellent bars, nightclubs, events, wish the art scene was less edgy but it's nice to have one
  • As a major west-coast cultural hub, there's pretty much always something happening, and every musician includes Seattle in their tour schedule
  • Easy access to beaches, islands, mountains, forests, lake resorts, hiking, skiing, beauty
  • Beautiful parks and bodies of water, especially on sunny summer days!
  • Utilities are low-key really good, excellent water quality, no dead zones for cell phones, and you're not stuck with TWC or Comcast for internet/cable like in most southeastern cities
  • Almost all interests are indulged here, so whatever you're into, there's probably a scene for it

Cons:
  • It's really far away from everything and everyone, you may as well be on an island
  • City is successful in spite of local politicians doing their utmost to ruin the city
  • Absolutely disastrous drug + mental illness crisis
  • Crime openly tolerated and not prosecuted, you just have to hope you don't draw the short straw
  • Incredibly antisocial climate, it's always culture shock going back to the south and having people be super-friendly and want to talk to me, you just get used to keeping to yourself and socializing through your phone all day
  • Young people in search of an identity care way too much about eye-rolling performative left-wing politics
  • Housing is outrageously expensive relative to the quality of house you get.  Even for $600/sqft you're looking at a Sears Catalog house from 1914 that requires constant maintenance
  • A lot of the city infrastructure is really old and nonsensical and the city has no plan to replace it (you find this out when you own property).
  • Traffic/commute is utterly miserable -- try to get a job you can walk/bike to
  • Extreme overproliferation of a certain type of tech guy -- not "tech bro" (those are all in SV), but more like, bland, boring, socially-awkward skinny white guys who don't know how to have a conversation that isn't about beer, weed, bitcoin or Tesla, but will still make small talk with you in the elevator once and then spend the next year smiling and waving at you in the hall like that makes you best friends.
  • Extreme overproliferation of white girls who don't know have a personality outside of wine, Netflix, their dog, and pretending to like the outdoors.

Basically, it's a beautiful paradise with wonderful amenities, but I wish I didn't have to share it with a bunch of nitwits.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on August 12, 2021, 12:50:24 PM
Ok, the absolute hysteria about Seattle has gone long enough. The hand wringing about Antifa and a city about to be taken by raging Marxists is clearly untrue and the product of the deranged ramblings of GMac. First things first, we need to talk about Kshama Sawant and Socialist Alternative.

Are they Stalinists about to lay siege to Seattle?

The answer is no, no they are not. So Socialist Alternative technically is a moderate splinter of a more radical, scandal driven party from the 80s. Generally they agree with the theoretical contributions and opinions of Leon Trotsky, someone who can be described as a hard social democrat who before becoming a Bolshevik member was apart of the less revolutionary Mensheviks, who held relations with other less radical Labour parties. Now in terms of governance Leon Trotsky was apart of the Left opposition to Stalin, but that is not carried into the mild SAlt, whose sister parties elsewhere just join other Labour parties and are the left faction to them. Specifically, SAlt commemorates the 1970 Polish strikes (https://www.socialistalternative.org/2020/12/22/december-1970-polish-workers-uprising-on-the-baltic-coast/) and does not like the Soviet Union.

Generally, SAlt is less revolutionary than Trotsky, being a “democratic” socialist party in all but name, like the UK Labour’s Momentum implicitly is. However, SAlt takes it one step further in not really calling for nationalization of primary industry or the transition to a classless society, but having reforms such as affordable housing and free healthcare be the end goal in its advertising—similar to basically all other center-left parties in Europe. They generally treat the theoretical writings of Marx in the same manner in practice but not in open position.

Are they ideologues destroying the city

Nope, and I don’t know why this lie keeps getting promoted given that the other Democratic councilors voted unanimously for the $15 minimum wage and affordable housing initiatives agreed upon to the council floor. Outside of a few votes for virtue signaling, Kshama Sawant has enacted policies that most progressive Democrats want and that politicians say they are for, only for her to go beyond and keep more promises to more than just her voters. Unlike other councilors, Kshama Sawant’s office is open to anyone in the city, leading to a lot of connection building

All I am saying is a lot of Democrats in Seattle also like her (https://www.kshamasolidarity.org/endorsements). On those voting no on the recall that are Democrats include; the 43rd District Democrats, former colleague in the council Mike O’Brian, and King County State Senate member Kirmay Zahilay.

Unions endorsing Kshama Sawant include the 117th Teamsters and 4121 UAW members alongside basically every other public union in Seattle

She even has business ties through the endorsement of Andaluz Jewelry and business owner Saba Tebke among others.

Is this the same out of touch ideologue stereotype seen in Lee Carter? No, in fact this is the work by a smooth political operative with a well-oiled machine to serve not only her district, but the whole city.

Ok but Antifa

Anti-fascism is a reasonable position to have, but ok.

More seriously, Socialist Alternative is not a violent party, and it’s direct action consisting of yelling outside some rando’s house isn’t that different from what the Progressive Democrats of America did when they were founded. Difference is that the old strategy is more effective, as politicians will not listen to working people and most of them don’t even know what the voters want. Through actually listening to grassroots networks of immigrant communities, working class organizations, and the real Seattle small business community—Kshama Sawant has done a good job. This leads us to

Kshama’s Protégés

Nonexistant given all of the people GMac is rambling about are DSA members or regular Democrats. Kshama Sawant is a DSA member and has good relations with the Seattle and national organization, but neither the other candidates beside her are SAlt members and she isn’t a democratic candidate (but she basically caucuses with Democrats and gets her party members to phonebank for Democratic candidates against Republicans 🤔).

But much CHAZ

Kshama Sawant voiced approval of being frustrated with police brutality and empathized with CHAZ participants, but she was not involved with CHAZ and SAlt saw the would-be commune as a bunch of cringe anarkiddies.

Furthermore she was against any criminal saboteurs taking advantage of the situation. It’s all very funny when you consider SAlt’s official position on the police basically mirrors Elizabeth Warren’s position, that there could be some redistribution of funds to municipal programs.

In short GMac is a looney person with absolutely no idea what’s going on in his city. Now, I admit that it’s pretty funny going with his delusion as reality, but it’s important for the unadulterated facts to be present.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: kingcharlesvii on August 12, 2021, 01:50:07 PM
I'm quite happy with the results of the primary, some exciting news out of Everett with a similar situation to Seattle in 15 & 19 where we saw a whole new council. In Everett it appears that three Rs on council will be gone (since none of them are running for re-election)

I also think it's notable that alot of hullabaloo is made about a "backlash" to "radical" seattle politics but year after year we just don't see it. I don't personally agree with so much of what Sawant does and says, but at the end of the day she has survived numerous electoral challenges and I really don't foresee the Recall against her being successful.

People forget that the low approval ratings for Seattle City Council aren't just folks thinking the council has gone too far left, but also folks that believe it hasn't gone left enough


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on August 12, 2021, 07:33:29 PM
Sawant doesn't actually accomplish anything since she is just one vote, she is just a really terrible person.  Her main impact on the council is to piss everybody off by constantly reciting speeches that have nothing to do with the topic at hand, and waste enormous amounts of time on publicity stunts.  She's also ruined all the public comment segments by packing the hall with her paid supporters.  I am represented by her and can confirm that her office does absolutely nothing for the district and couldn't care less if you're dumb enough to call them and ask them to help with some D3-related matter.

Tammy Morales is Sawant's protege.  She was campaigning with SocAlt and SocAlt was promoting her and Sawant as the SocAlt duo.  Then her focus groups told her that D2 isn't D3 and doesn't want a Trotskyite communist as their representative.  So she got rid of all that stuff, ran as a Democrat, and accused anyone who brought it up of lying.  It worked, she got elected, and now she votes with Sawant nearly 100% of the time.

There are a lot of local politicians who would rather be on Sawant's good side, or are similarly extreme and just not dumb enough to characterize their extremism as Marxism.  Lorena Gonzalez and Teresa Mosqueda both endorsed her against Egan Orion, for instance.  It's very much not surprising that a loathsome dips--t like Mike O'Brien is backing her.  I expect Mike McGinn, Cary Moon, Dan Strauss and Andrew Lewis will back her as well if they haven't already.

Being a part of the Recall campaign feels very similar to Biden 2020 where the other side is just constantly abusing every vector possible to try to cheat, lies without shame, breaks all sorts of laws, and just always seems to get away with it.  It's very frustrating.  And adds weight to the effort because it feels like this election is a mandate on lying and cheating -- if you can do it to such an extreme degree and be rewarded by the voters, that's just going to be every election from this point forward.  Very similar to how weighty it felt battling Trump in 2020.

The fact remains that she broke the law and deserves to be recalled for it, just like Trump or any other lawbreaking politician.  That would be true even if she weren't an outrageously awful human being.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on August 12, 2021, 10:07:36 PM
lmao Gmac, just lmao how you could be so delusional.

But for real, it’s amazing how a party with only one elected member that has basically relegated themselves to be a regional branch of the DSA could cause people to delude themselves. Granted Sawant has a lot of street cred for her excellent service to her community.

I encourage everyone to dispel the lies made against Sawant through excellent reporting by The Stranger (https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2020/08/24/44343473/whats-the-deal-with-the-recall-sawant-campaign). They have an excellent series dispelling the mythical reality Gmac lives in, divorced from the reality his city is in.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on August 13, 2021, 12:26:52 AM
lmao Gmac, just lmao how you could be so delusional.

But for real, it’s amazing how a party with only one elected member that has basically relegated themselves to be a regional branch of the DSA could cause people to delude themselves. Granted Sawant has a lot of street cred for her excellent service to her community.

I encourage everyone to dispel the lies made against Sawant through excellent reporting by The Stranger (https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2020/08/24/44343473/whats-the-deal-with-the-recall-sawant-campaign). They have an excellent series dispelling the mythical reality Gmac lives in, divorced from the reality his city is in.



I don't even know what part of my post you're replying to.  I said Sawant doesn't actually get anything done, but your point about her being one party member of a regional branch seems like you're replying to someone who said she does have power.

It's more akin to those poor Democrats in Georgia who have Marjorie Taylor Greene as their representative.  Yes, she's powerless, so she's not really capable of actively harming them.  But it still really sucks to have such an awful person as your representative in Congress, and it would be nice to replace her with someone who actually cares about the district and is effective enough to advocate for its interests.  There are legitimate parochial issues in D3 that Sawant doesn't have a clue about, and probably sound trivial to talk about on here, but matter quite a lot to those of us who actually live here and walk these streets every single day.

Also hilarious that you posted an article by Nathalie Graham (who just got fired from The Stranger -- but you have no idea who this person even is) of The Stranger (which has a reputation as an extreme radical left publication, and loves Sawant to death -- but you have no idea what this magazine even is) that was written a year ago, as though that's somehow credible.  Want to post Charles Mudede's thoughts on the Recall as well?  Or Rich Smith?  All very credible and non-biased voices in the Seattle ecosystem!  But you don't have any idea who any of these people are.

You live 2000 miles away so I don't know why you're trying to lecture me about the city council representative for the seven square miles that I happen to have lived in for most of the last decade, lol.



Also, you're wrong about SocAlt and CHAZ.  When CHAZ first started, Sawant went down there and tried to pull some "our movements are one and the same" malarkey, and had her paid cronies all out there gathering phone numbers and pushing a petition, basically her usual shtick to try and adopt the CHAZ movement as her own movement and put herself on top so she could take credit for what other people were doing.  The CHAZ crowd wasn't having it and she got booed.  Want to know how I know this?  Because I live here and saw it in person, lol


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: kingcharlesvii on August 13, 2021, 08:02:56 PM
It still just amazes me with Sawant how I constantly hear from center-left to right-wing folks that Sawant doesn't care about her district and how people in her district hate her. Hell they'll even say that about more than half the council, yet she routinely wins re-election. I really think part of the tension we see with people like gmac is the Seattle City politics of 20 years ago are long-gone, hell even looking back at the council in 2010 feels like a life-time ago.

Seattle has changed and the people within it want this new direction, and honestly so far as the fastest growing major city in the country (with over 100k new residents arriving between 2010-2020) as well as being the new mecca for the tech industry. I just fail to see how the new change in direction is disastrous. Having myself been homeless in the seattle metro region in the early 2010s the homelessness crisis isn't new, hell there's an almost live skit from the 90s regarding having to jump over panhandlers on your way to work.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on August 14, 2021, 12:33:23 PM
OK long post about how Seattle got to where it is today incoming:

Seattle has changed and the people within it want this new direction, and honestly so far as the fastest growing major city in the country (with over 100k new residents arriving between 2010-2020) as well as being the new mecca for the tech industry. I just fail to see how the new change in direction is disastrous. Having myself been homeless in the seattle metro region in the early 2010s the homelessness crisis isn't new, hell there's an almost live skit from the 90s regarding having to jump over panhandlers on your way to work.

Yep, and there was the SPD "Under the Viaduct" skit from the early 90s as well.  When I moved here I had heard for years about the notorious Jungle on the side of Beacon Hill.  The thing was, yes the Jungle was a national embarrassment and a hotbed of crime, but it didn't really affect the rest of the city.  It sucked big time for Beacon Hill, and nobody wanted to live there because the crime was so bad, but nobody was walking from the Jungle up to Capitol Hill to steal a bike.

My understanding is that Greg Nickels periodically swept the Jungle to clean it up and arrest the obvious big-time criminals, so people would disperse to other areas of the city and set up cities, but the law enforcement was very vigilant about those, so those people would move back to the Jungle as soon as they could.  And there was a constant struggle between law enforcement and homelessness activists who wanted to protect these ex-Jungle folks and let them keep living in Green Lake or wherever.  Most of those big activist names from back then are today running "homelessness services" or organizations like SHARE and WHEEL, and receiving millions of dollars a year from the city council to try things their way.

Then Mike McGinn took office, he didn't care about the Jungle, and everyone was able to live there without fear of law enforcement.  I arrived in Seattle at the tail end of the McGinn administration so this was all mostly before my time.  When I first got to Seattle, there were isolated tents under bridges downtown and in SODO, and Pioneer Square was considered really dangerous because addicts would hang out there all day waiting for the shelters to open, but it was absolutely nothing like what we see today.



From my perspective, what made things really bad was a combination of local and national factors.

Nationally, the opioid crisis exploded in 2013, with opioid overdose deaths tripling nationwide between 2013-2016.  Methamphetamines also exploded around the same time, with overdoses doubling from 2013-2017.

Locally, this meant the drug problem was getting worse, and so the number of homeless addicts was increasing.  Ed Murray and the city council didn't know how to handle this, so they started letting those activists and their organizations handle things, pouring millions of dollars into the creation of tiny house villages and other such pop-up shelters.  They also turned a blind eye to the inevitable crime and damage that would result from building these tiny house villages in neighborhoods.  Of course if you build a tiny house village in Licton Springs, then you have drug addicts wandering around Licton Springs day and night, not only making the neighborhood unsafe but also stealing anything that isn't nailed down so they can sell it for drugs.  The city council and their allied activists didn't want to acknowledge that this was a problem, so they started using a lot of far-left language about the crimes actually being a good thing, or a necessary evil, and we have to accommodate everyone's lifestyle, and so on.  So every year law enforcement would be restricted more and more, and the city administration was totally uninterested in actually prosecuting any of these people.  I don't know how this permissive culture developed, but it did seem like every six months we'd hear about the city council making things more permissive.

In 2015 a crazed junkie on a city bus tried to assault me.  The city arrested him but didn't prosecute and he was released back out onto the street with no consequences.  Since then I haven't used public transit.  From what I hear, it's gotten a lot worse.  That was when I became very interested in this issue.  I learned that this was a regular thing, that police can't arrest anyone for open-air drug use, harassment, or otherwise being an obvious danger to themselves and those around them.  They have to wait for them to actually do a crime, and even then only from a very specific short-list of crimes that they're allowed to arrest for.  And even if they do arrest people, they just get released.



The permissive culture acted as a magnet, drawing in junkies and transients from all around the country.  Nice weather, easy access to drugs, no laws, and you can live where you like with no trouble, what's not to like?  So we started getting more and more homeless.  The perception that we had "better services" also meant that other cities, who were also struggling with the opioid/meth crisis, would buy their addicts bus or plane tickets to Seattle.  Every time some crazed junkie made the news, they would never be from Seattle.

But the city council and mayor didn't want to acknowledge this failure, so instead they said that all these new homeless were folks who'd been priced out of apartments by rising rents thanks to Amazon.  That political message became the new norm, and between 2014-2020, every election here became "the homeless are Amazon's fault and we have to attack Amazon to fix the problem."  People love to hate Amazon so the politicians kept getting elected.  This even though it was extremely obvious that most of the new homeless were lifestyle transients who were pros at what they were doing and part of a thriving drug scene.  Meanwhile the council was trying to fix the problem by making the culture more permissive.  Lisa Herbold wanted to open up safe injection sites in residential neighborhoods close to the new encampments.  Sally Bagshaw thought we should just hand out free drugs.  Mike O'Brien introduced legislation to legalize camping in public parks.



So those are the factors that led to the situation continuing to deteriorate every single year.  But I think the problem really came to a head in 2016 when there were a series of shootings at The Jungle and Ed Murray swept the entire thing and shut it down.  This was basically the equivalent to releasing everyone from prison, because all those former Jungle folks, the most hardened Seattle criminals and drug addicts, dispersed throughout the city.  Many of them settled in the existing tent encampments or villages.  Some of them took their former social circles from the Jungle and just created a new encampment with that same group, so that a chunk of The Jungle was suddenly in your neighborhood p-patch.

From my perspective, 2016 is when the problem really got out of control and we just had complete chaos.  At least before 2016, your neighborhood could get screwed over by SHARE deciding to turn a parking lot into a drug bazaar and the city telling you to suck it up, but there was some order and control to it.  The transients who couldn't get into the villages mostly stuck to SODO and Georgetown which were always a wasteland.  After 2016, we just had the worst of the Jungle setting up wherever they pleased -- Green Lake, Ballard, Capitol Hill, any green space in random residential neighborhoods -- and nobody could do anything about it.



Prior to 2017, the SR 99 tunnel had been the main source of political polarization in Seattle.  But by 2017 the project was nearing completion and nobody had strong opinions about it anymore.  Homelessness replaced SR 99 as the new source of political polarization in the city.

One the one side, you have this ideology that says "all of this is the fault of Amazon and the tech bros for making property unaffordable, and these people are just victims.  Enforcing laws is just punishing them for being homeless.  We have to let them do whatever they want until we can build enough affordable housing to shelter them."

And on the other side, you had people like me who said "the laws should apply to everyone, having tents in parks is not an acceptable replacement for public housing, and these people are victims of the opioid crisis, not of rising rents."

And that's where we are today.  My side won the 2017 mayoral election, and the other side won the 2019 city council elections.  So far things aren't looking good for the 2021 elections.



One last story.  In 2019, there was a vacant lot a few blocks from my house that some local women's group decided, with the city's permission, to turn into a park.  They worked all throughout the spring to plant seeds and plants, added a few structures, and so forth.  I thought this was a wonderful project and came out to help them on a few weekends.  This was two blocks away from a school, and after the park was finished, teachers would take their kids to run around and play there.  It was really nice and emblematic of the sort of community culture and creativity that makes people want to live in Capitol Hill.

But you can probably imagine what happened next.  After a few months, one tent moved into the park.  Then that guy was quickly joined by his friends, so you had more tents.  I never saw the children out there playing ever again.  One of the women who had been building the park was a neighbor of mine and she was extremely upset about it but said she'd called SPD and they said they couldn't do anything.  I couldn't believe this and was very upset as well so I called SPD and got the same story -- unless you have evidence they committed a crime, we can't do anything, it's perfectly legal for them to camp in your little park.

Today you would have no idea that place used to be a park.  It's just an empty lot with a dozen different tents and garbage everywhere.  And there's been a corresponding uptick in crime.  During the day we see shady characters wandering the street.  One time a women walked down the street, totally naked, just screaming AAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAA.  You take a walk down this garden-lined street, where children play, and you're guaranteed to find a couple little orange syringe caps.  At night my cameras catch car prowlers all the time and it's always one of 3 different people, one of them I know for a fact lives there.  I used to have people come try my back door late at night to see if I'd left it unlocked, but I installed some motion-sensor floodlights and they stopped.  My car was smashed into once, not because there was anything to steal, but they just wanted to rummage through my glove compartment and see if I was hiding any valuables in there.  I told the police and showed them I had footage of the entire thing, but they had no interest in checking out the encampment to see if the culprit lived there.  I also used to lose packages regularly until I started adding delivery instructions telling the mail carrier to hide them inside my bushes.

And that's just, you know, day to day life in this city.  That's the real life consequences of all this high-minded rhetoric about our "houseless neighbors" and "crimes of need" and "lack of affordable housing." 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Interlocutor is just not there yet on August 14, 2021, 01:31:41 PM
/snip

Anecdotally speaking, I'm looking at moving to anywhere in the Greater Seattle metro, with an emphasis on Olympia & Tacoma. I'm sure my list is very similar to other transplants.
Nice! Most California people I know looking to move are also looking at Seattle or the Seattle burbs I'm looking to go there too after I finish college which won't be for about another couple years or so unless I get into a school in Washington and am up for paying out of state tuition. But when I move I'm looking at Skagit and Whatcom Counties because I have deep family ties to that region I normally go up there once a year since I was a baby I used to go lobster fishing with my grandpa I love it there and the cities of Anacortes and Bellingham are really nice I'm not really a huge fan of the big city aesthetic so I'm probably gonna stay out of the Seattle metro but I also like how Skagit and Whatcom are positioned close enough to Vancouver Seattle and a couple of other big cities so its not far from a lot of em.

Having lived in SoCal all my life, I'm tired of the hustle-and-bustle and suburban jungle aesthetic. However, I'd still like to be near a big metro. Bellingham looks and sounds really interesting, but Olympia has the benefit (Or drawback to some folks) of being within 2 hours of Portland. No matter where/if I end up in Washington, I think it'll be a breath of fresh air (Figuratively & literally).

This is all talk though. I've never been to the PNW, though I'll be traveling up there for 2 weeks in August. I'll try and hit up Bellingham, but it may be a little too far out from my plans. It's also just as likely that I'll end up moving to Sacramento in leiu of Washington or Oregon. Either way, I don't see myself in SoCal 5 years from now.

Nice! Hope you have a fun trip!  WA is a really beautiful state also once you get out of Seattle the lack of traffic is going to feel amazing lol compared to Socal that's another reason I really wanna live their in Downtown Seattle the traffic is a little LA esique but the rest of the state has very clear roads. The Air Qaulity is also a lot cleaner than in Los Angeles. Let us know how your trip goes in August!

Given the mass hysteria that seems to have fermented in this thread, I take it now isn't a good time for my trip report where I have positive things to say about Seattle & the state of Washington?

I think saying positive things about Seattle will be a welcome break from the hysteria lmao

Lol true. But I think I'll stand by until my wall of text doesn't get buried by a certain someone's even longer wall of text.

Whenever that day comes, I guess.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on August 14, 2021, 01:50:39 PM
The very fact that Seattle is crazy is why people vote for SAlt, they’re entire advertising schtick is providing stability and peace in the city. They do want to solve homelessness and stop the junkies by giving them a place to stay and have professionals treat them to get on their feet.

Of course given you are blind to reality and are dismissive of run of the mill Seattle residents and their viewpoints on how to solve the cities problems, I see the problem may be you being such a giant square.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on August 14, 2021, 02:00:00 PM
The very fact that Seattle is crazy is why people vote for SAlt, they’re entire advertising schtick is providing stability and peace in the city. They do want to solve homelessness and stop the junkies by giving them a place to stay and have professionals treat them to get on their feet.

Of course given you are blind to reality and are dismissive of run of the mill Seattle residents and their viewpoints on how to solve the cities problems, I see the problem may be you being such a giant square.

You say these things and then you don't respond to anything in my posts.

You don't even live here.  Have you ever even visited Seattle?  Like seriously go find another thread do post in.  Don't sit there 2000 miles away and tell me that I'm blind to things I can literally look out my window and observe.  Don't degrade me for writing long posts explaining the situation here, and then claim I'm the one who doesn't know what's going on in my own city.

It's hilarious that you can say something like "SocAlt's entire advertising shtick is providing stability and peace" with a straight face, and then turn around and say I'm the delusional one.  You don't know this since you don't live here, but SocAlt goes out every week and plasters every lamppost in Capitol Hill with their big red posters.  Not once have those posters ever said anything about "peace and stability" it's always radical change, us-vs-them, fight fight fight, overthrow capitalism, down with the landlords, everyone who opposes us is a right-wing billionaire Trump supporter.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: kingcharlesvii on August 14, 2021, 06:32:50 PM
The very fact that Seattle is crazy is why people vote for SAlt, they’re entire advertising schtick is providing stability and peace in the city. They do want to solve homelessness and stop the junkies by giving them a place to stay and have professionals treat them to get on their feet.

Of course given you are blind to reality and are dismissive of run of the mill Seattle residents and their viewpoints on how to solve the cities problems, I see the problem may be you being such a giant square.


It's hilarious that you can say something like "SocAlt's entire advertising shtick is providing stability and peace" with a straight face, and then turn around and say I'm the delusional one.  You don't know this since you don't live here, but SocAlt goes out every week and plasters every lamppost in Capitol Hill with their big red posters.  Not once have those posters ever said anything about "peace and stability" it's always radical change, us-vs-them, fight fight fight, overthrow capitalism, down with the landlords, everyone who opposes us is a right-wing billionaire Trump supporter.


I'm actually gonna have to agree with gmac on this, Sawant and her crew such as Nikkita Oliver and Jess Spear have always tried making their candidacies and political projects about class and the need for radical change. It's honestly how incendiary their rhetoric is (and some of their more unfeasible policies) that makes me hesitant to directly support them. I've never honestly seen any of the SA folks talk about bringing "peace and stability" to the city, typically those that believe the city needs those things are the peeps supporting Kate Martin, Art Langlie and Sara Nelson tbh


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on August 15, 2021, 04:16:32 PM
The very fact that Seattle is crazy is why people vote for SAlt, they’re entire advertising schtick is providing stability and peace in the city. They do want to solve homelessness and stop the junkies by giving them a place to stay and have professionals treat them to get on their feet.

Of course given you are blind to reality and are dismissive of run of the mill Seattle residents and their viewpoints on how to solve the cities problems, I see the problem may be you being such a giant square.


It's hilarious that you can say something like "SocAlt's entire advertising shtick is providing stability and peace" with a straight face, and then turn around and say I'm the delusional one.  You don't know this since you don't live here, but SocAlt goes out every week and plasters every lamppost in Capitol Hill with their big red posters.  Not once have those posters ever said anything about "peace and stability" it's always radical change, us-vs-them, fight fight fight, overthrow capitalism, down with the landlords, everyone who opposes us is a right-wing billionaire Trump supporter.


I'm actually gonna have to agree with gmac on this, Sawant and her crew such as Nikkita Oliver and Jess Spear have always tried making their candidacies and political projects about class and the need for radical change. It's honestly how incendiary their rhetoric is (and some of their more unfeasible policies) that makes me hesitant to directly support them. I've never honestly seen any of the SA folks talk about bringing "peace and stability" to the city, typically those that believe the city needs those things are the peeps supporting Kate Martin, Art Langlie and Sara Nelson tbh
Know I talk to the local SAlt branch leader here, and I’ve seen them do their phone banking and heavy lifting in the Chicagoland DSA chapters. Internally they are more chill in the upper management positions. Must be different by location too.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on September 01, 2021, 06:57:35 PM
Trump endorsed Joe Kent over JHB. (https://twitter.com/realLizUSA/status/1433157791674511367)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Utah Neolib on September 01, 2021, 08:13:41 PM
Inslee is going to run again in 2024 for another term


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on October 11, 2021, 05:20:42 PM
Only about three weeks to go before election day, I'd label the races as follows:

Harrell vs. Gonzalez:  Lean Harrell
Davison vs. NTK:  Toss-up
Nelson vs. Oliver:  Lean Oliver
Wilson vs. Mosqueda:  Safe Mosqueda

We also have the Recall Sawant election a month later in December.  I would rank that as Lean Recall.  But it may be heavily dependent on the results of the November election.  If Gonzalez/NTK/Oliver sweep, I doubt Sawant gets recalled.  The normal, sane folks will just be too demoralized.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on October 14, 2021, 11:38:02 AM
Not going to debate the definition of "sane", but my take is that Davison is heavily favored. In my 85%+ Biden precinct, I've seen nothing but Davison signs, often coupled with BLM signs and near cars with Biden/Harris bumper stickers. I'd rate the race at least Lean Davison, probably closer to Likely than Toss-Up, and while I'll have to end up voting for her, she's not making me at all happy about it. Harrell should easily win the mayoral race.

The leadership in my union seems to want to donate money to oppose the Sawant recall, while many actual members are, at the very least, not in favor of choosing a side. This is a real problem with our union, the disconnect between the leadership and the members, and I worry that this is what leads many people to have a negative view of unions. They see the political donations and over-the-top statements of the leadership, and don't understand the importance of the protection they offer to workers, especially when dealing with an organization that is bureaucratic at best, and happy to shaft its employees at every turn at worst.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Roll Roons on October 14, 2021, 12:38:23 PM
If Davison pulls this off, I guess it shows that even one of the most loony left places in the country has its limits.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on October 14, 2021, 01:46:41 PM
If Davison pulls this off, I guess it shows that even one of the most loony left places in the country has its limits.

Most of Seattle really isn't that "loony." Left-wing, yes, but the loons are just very vocal.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LePageFan on October 17, 2021, 09:33:21 PM
Interesting small scoop I talked with someone heavily involved with the Washington redistricting and the person said that republicans worst case with redistricting is a no change map. Which tells me that republicans are going to come out of WA with at least a mildly decent win.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on October 18, 2021, 01:33:44 PM
The leadership in my union seems to want to donate money to oppose the Sawant recall, while many actual members are, at the very least, not in favor of choosing a side. This is a real problem with our union, the disconnect between the leadership and the members, and I worry that this is what leads many people to have a negative view of unions. They see the political donations and over-the-top statements of the leadership, and don't understand the importance of the protection they offer to workers, especially when dealing with an organization that is bureaucratic at best, and happy to shaft its employees at every turn at worst.
No, these people hate the very idea of unions, quite literally viewing any sort of social mobility or perceived break from people providing goods and services to them as an evil of itself. Employers especially do not like unions and don’t see you as someone worth giving a damn about.

Like I’ve said before, SAlt are basically progressive democrats with a liking for a certain aesthetic and a want to be a party for laborers. Their open door policy across the city provides the your union with a reliable voice in city hall more so than what the Democratic Party has offered in its time in Seattle. SAlt have also provided solidarity support in aiding strikes through fundings and adding strength in numbers to gain media attention to the strikes in Tyson Foods and Kellogg’s.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on October 18, 2021, 01:38:45 PM
The leadership in my union seems to want to donate money to oppose the Sawant recall, while many actual members are, at the very least, not in favor of choosing a side. This is a real problem with our union, the disconnect between the leadership and the members, and I worry that this is what leads many people to have a negative view of unions. They see the political donations and over-the-top statements of the leadership, and don't understand the importance of the protection they offer to workers, especially when dealing with an organization that is bureaucratic at best, and happy to shaft its employees at every turn at worst.
No, these people hate the very idea of unions, quite literally viewing any sort of social mobility or perceived break from people providing goods and services to them as an evil of itself. Employers especially do not like unions and don’t see you as someone worth giving a damn about.

To be clear, I'm not talking about employers here. Yes, plenty of people are anti-union because they don't like employees having bargaining power. What I'm talking about is people who want to quit their union specially because they don't like the fact that the leadership is endorsing candidates/causes that they're not behind. To them, it feels out of place, or as if their voices don't matter.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on October 18, 2021, 02:17:00 PM
The leadership in my union seems to want to donate money to oppose the Sawant recall, while many actual members are, at the very least, not in favor of choosing a side. This is a real problem with our union, the disconnect between the leadership and the members, and I worry that this is what leads many people to have a negative view of unions. They see the political donations and over-the-top statements of the leadership, and don't understand the importance of the protection they offer to workers, especially when dealing with an organization that is bureaucratic at best, and happy to shaft its employees at every turn at worst.
No, these people hate the very idea of unions, quite literally viewing any sort of social mobility or perceived break from people providing goods and services to them as an evil of itself. Employers especially do not like unions and don’t see you as someone worth giving a damn about.

To be clear, I'm not talking about employers here. Yes, plenty of people are anti-union because they don't like employees having bargaining power. What I'm talking about is people who want to quit their union specially because they don't like the fact that the leadership is endorsing candidates/causes that they're not behind. To them, it feels out of place, or as if their voices don't matter.
Well that’s their problem then, because Socialist Alternative is the various trade unionists representative in Seattle’s city hall. Without them, the Bernie movement and Fight for $15 along with a whole host of other packages for working people would be laughed at as something not worthy of talking about.

SAlt has demonstrated numerous times that it isn’t some raging band of incompetent revolutionary-wannabes, instead it is a dedicated machine made up of the very trade unions it seeks to represent. Like, the way Kshama Sawant works on legislation and does civic activities is much more subdued than their rhetoric to the point that in actual effect she’s indistinguishable from a progressive democrat. The only difference is that she relies on a machine more grassroots based around collectives such as trade unions instead of the Democratic donor-funded one, leading to real progressive policies being passed and a tangible effect on the rest of the council. Why else would many Democrats endorse her campaign and vouch she is great to work with then?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on October 20, 2021, 02:10:41 PM
Sawant only cares about herself.  She doesn't care about your union and she doesn't care about you.

She'll give lip service to your union if it secures the support of your union leadership, and she'll show up to your rallies and strikes if there's an opportunity to take credit for the outcome.  Other than that she couldn't care less.  She's not your friend on the council, she's not going to write any bills to help you or do any of the thankless dirty work or nitty-gritty stuff that would actually achieve positive legislative outcomes.

I've talked to a lot of folks about politics over the last few weeks and it seems like my hypothesis of the recall, that Sawant is in for a rough time if she doesn't have an opponent to demonize, is coming to fruition.  Sawant can't defend herself or her illegal activities, and the few positives she can point to are just things she believes but never does anything about, so it's easy to tell people "we can get someone who believes the same things, but is actually effective instead of a lawbreaking grandstander." Ordinarily she'd be able to counter this with a relentless, ruthless, expensive smear campaign to make sure people thought her opponent didn't believe those things.  But she has no opponent.  So she's lost her main strategy and she's floundering.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on October 20, 2021, 04:13:31 PM
That’s untrue given SAlt’s push for higher wages and affordable housing that Seattle acted as a spark to advance the movement, but ok, whatever you say GMac.

Again, whatever the result of these races, the fact of the matter is that a grassroots machine of the working class can achieve so much if they band together and work independently of being subservient to the Corporate approved candidates. The failings Socialist Alternative has is not based on their policies pushed or their practice, but their refusal to dig themselves in to their base through building workers committees to create a parallel economy and be fully independent of the soft left capitalists.

Hey, more proof that Kshama Sawant is a pragmatic technocrat.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on October 20, 2021, 11:58:14 PM
That’s untrue given SAlt’s push for higher wages and affordable housing that Seattle acted as a spark to advance the movement, but ok, whatever you say GMac.

Oh Jesus, my sweet lord and savior, will I be glad to hear the last of this phony baloney claim that Sawant had literally anything to do with Fight For 15 beyond swooping in at the last second to grandstand and take all the credit.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on October 21, 2021, 10:25:03 AM
That’s untrue given SAlt’s push for higher wages and affordable housing that Seattle acted as a spark to advance the movement, but ok, whatever you say GMac.

Oh Jesus, my sweet lord and savior, will I be glad to hear the last of this phony baloney claim that Sawant had literally anything to do with Fight For 15 beyond swooping in at the last second to grandstand and take all the credit.
Well she did popularize the idea and brought it in to fruition. Like lmao why you so salty


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on October 21, 2021, 11:23:59 AM
Sawant only cares about herself.  She doesn't care about your union and she doesn't care about you.

Oh, I know that Sawant is a grandstander. I don't really want the union getting involved either way, since the membership is at least somewhat divided, and they shouldn't be endorsing anyone without at least a clear consensus. Even then, I have mixed feeling about unions endorsing political campaigns, rather than focusing on workplace issues, of which there are many.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on October 21, 2021, 03:58:09 PM
Sawant only cares about herself.  She doesn't care about your union and she doesn't care about you.

Oh, I know that Sawant is a grandstander. I don't really want the union getting involved either way, since the membership is at least somewhat divided, and they shouldn't be endorsing anyone without at least a clear consensus. Even then, I have mixed feeling about unions endorsing political campaigns, rather than focusing on workplace issues, of which there are many.
Is political power not a way to achieve workplace issues in the realms of safety, wages, and the very ability for people to organize in unions?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Roll Roons on October 23, 2021, 06:01:27 PM
Not sure if this was posted, but a poll was released for the City Attorney race a couple days ago.
https://www.nwprogressive.org/weblog/2021/10/ann-davison-pulling-away-from-rival-nicole-thomas-kennedy-in-seattle-city-attorney-race.html

Davison 43%, Lunatic 24%, the rest undecided. Honestly, this is probably a better parallel to Jones-Moore than Brown-Coakley.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on October 23, 2021, 09:48:37 PM
They actually did polling, through Change Research, for all four citywide races:

Mayor
Harrell 48%
Gonzalez 32%
Not Sure 18%
Won't Vote 2%

City Attorney
Davison 43%
Thomas-Kennedy 24%
Not Sure 30%
Won't Vote 2%

City Council Seat 9
Nelson 41%
Oliver 37%
Not Sure 21%
Won't Vote 2%

City Council Seat 8
Mosqueda 39%
Wilson 31%
Not Sure 26%
Won't Vote 2%

The polls are very good news but I'm skeptical that they're legit.  The leftist candidates always close ground in the final days, especially once all the late ballots start shifting the results.  Last year we had really nice results on election night, and then all the races shifted 5-10 points to the left over the following week, resulting in a disastrous near-sweep of the council by extremists.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 24, 2021, 05:03:02 AM

I have some hypotheses about how Republicans might be able to put together a winning coalition, but doing so requires some major re-thinking of the electoral playing field which I don't think the state party is willing to consider at this time.

Do tell!

Alright, here's one of my ideas on how WA Republicans could put together a winning statewide coalition:

The most important thing to note here is that, for all intents and purposes, the core three counties of King, Snohomish, and Pierce are where the winner is decided. If a Republican wants to win the state, they need to win Pierce by a fair margin and at the very least come very close to winning Snohomish if not win it outright. They also need to keep the margin manageable in King; the absolute outer limit of how much they can lose King by is probably about 65-35 depending on how well they do elsewhere.

Traditionally, this manifested as winning cities like Sammamish, Newcastle, University Place, Bothell, Edmonds, Mukilteo, Mill Creek, etc. Basically anywhere higher in income and/or touching water not in Seattle.

However, I don't believe (outside of a few exceptions like Wyman) that this is a feasible strategy for Republicans in the short-to-medium term. These areas are exactly the types of areas which swung extremely hard away from Trump and the current Republican Party. Some of them may be able to be won back for a competent moderate-type, but these types of voters tend to be much more ideological and polarized. Fighting for these voters is swimming upstream against the current.

Instead, flip the script. Lean into the demographic and broader electoral changes which are happening and focus on lower income voters. Give up places like Sammamish and Edmonds. The goal should be to win over every possible voter outside of the white educated UMC. Go after Hispanics, Asians, Arabs, renters, union workers, and low-income workers of all stripes. Carve a red swath up and down Highway 99 to win Everett and maybe even Lynnwood from the inside out. Court voters in south King County: Kent, Auburn, Renton, Des Moines, even SeaTac. Bring down margins in southeast Seattle, White Center, Tukwila. Go after Lakewood, east Tacoma.

Here is a map, based on calculations from this thread (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=332068.msg8020900#msg8020900), which shows the areas which have the highest prevalence of "simple" communitarian ideology and would likely be the richest targets as mentioned above: (Image Link) (http://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Comm-WA.png)

Winning these types of voters also has secondary effects in potentially winning places like Pasco, Spokane north of I-90, and Skagit County while shoring up Yakima County. Kitsap would also almost certainly be more amenable to this type of party, outside of Bainbridge. The tricky part would be welding these voters on to existing Republican strengths without alienating too many of your own.

How do you actually win over these voters? That's a separate question I have some thoughts on, which I may post later.

In other words, the WA GOP needs Ann Davison to run for Governor in 2024.

Don't be stupid, WA GOP! Don't nominate another loser like Loren Culp. Nominate a brave and stunning woman like Ann Davison who can win in a landslide in 2024.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Continential on October 24, 2021, 08:43:01 AM
I have some hypotheses about how Republicans might be able to put together a winning coalition, but doing so requires some major re-thinking of the electoral playing field which I don't think the state party is willing to consider at this time.

Do tell!

Alright, here's one of my ideas on how WA Republicans could put together a winning statewide coalition:

The most important thing to note here is that, for all intents and purposes, the core three counties of King, Snohomish, and Pierce are where the winner is decided. If a Republican wants to win the state, they need to win Pierce by a fair margin and at the very least come very close to winning Snohomish if not win it outright. They also need to keep the margin manageable in King; the absolute outer limit of how much they can lose King by is probably about 65-35 depending on how well they do elsewhere.

Traditionally, this manifested as winning cities like Sammamish, Newcastle, University Place, Bothell, Edmonds, Mukilteo, Mill Creek, etc. Basically anywhere higher in income and/or touching water not in Seattle.

However, I don't believe (outside of a few exceptions like Wyman) that this is a feasible strategy for Republicans in the short-to-medium term. These areas are exactly the types of areas which swung extremely hard away from Trump and the current Republican Party. Some of them may be able to be won back for a competent moderate-type, but these types of voters tend to be much more ideological and polarized. Fighting for these voters is swimming upstream against the current.

Instead, flip the script. Lean into the demographic and broader electoral changes which are happening and focus on lower income voters. Give up places like Sammamish and Edmonds. The goal should be to win over every possible voter outside of the white educated UMC. Go after Hispanics, Asians, Arabs, renters, union workers, and low-income workers of all stripes. Carve a red swath up and down Highway 99 to win Everett and maybe even Lynnwood from the inside out. Court voters in south King County: Kent, Auburn, Renton, Des Moines, even SeaTac. Bring down margins in southeast Seattle, White Center, Tukwila. Go after Lakewood, east Tacoma.

Here is a map, based on calculations from this thread (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=332068.msg8020900#msg8020900), which shows the areas which have the highest prevalence of "simple" communitarian ideology and would likely be the richest targets as mentioned above: (Image Link) (http://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Comm-WA.png)

Winning these types of voters also has secondary effects in potentially winning places like Pasco, Spokane north of I-90, and Skagit County while shoring up Yakima County. Kitsap would also almost certainly be more amenable to this type of party, outside of Bainbridge. The tricky part would be welding these voters on to existing Republican strengths without alienating too many of your own.

How do you actually win over these voters? That's a separate question I have some thoughts on, which I may post later.

In other words, the WA GOP needs Ann Davison to run for Governor in 2024.

Don't be stupid, WA GOP! Don't nominate another loser like Loren Culp. Nominate a brave and stunning woman like Ann Davison who can win in a landslide in 2024.
Why would she even run in the first place because if she loses the Governors race, I presume she'll probably lose the next election for City Attorney unless Thomas-Kennedy or another wacko gets in the runoff in 2025.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Canis on October 24, 2021, 11:54:34 AM
Quote
Our team thinks it’s significant that voters of color prefer Davison by a more than two-to-one margin (44% for Davison, 21% for Thomas-Kennedy, 34% not sure) and voters in three of our four age brackets.

The youngest voters do prefer Thomas-Kennedy, but her advantage with them is not overwhelming: she has 36% support from voters ages eighteen to thirty-four, while Davison has support from 28% of that group.

Nearly a third of the youngest voters — 32% — aren’t sure.
From the poll Roll posted.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on October 24, 2021, 12:04:12 PM
If WA GOP wants to win the governor's seat they need the Democrats to nominate some frothing lunatic like NTK.  But the statewide Democratic Party would never do something so damn suicidal.  It's just Seattle that has these insane politics.  It's not like Seattle Dems are behind NTK either -- the LD organizations making these endorsements are dominated by just the same extremist activists as every other organization in this city and don't actually represent local Dems at all.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Roll Roons on October 24, 2021, 03:19:48 PM
If WA GOP wants to win the governor's seat they need the Democrats to nominate some frothing lunatic like NTK.  But the statewide Democratic Party would never do something so damn suicidal.  It's just Seattle that has these insane politics.  It's not like Seattle Dems are behind NTK either -- the LD organizations making these endorsements are dominated by just the same extremist activists as every other organization in this city and don't actually represent local Dems at all.

Hate to burst your bubble, but this is the chair of the WA Democratic Party:


Or claiming that Davison is an "MTG wannabe":


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on October 24, 2021, 03:41:32 PM
If WA GOP wants to win the governor's seat they need the Democrats to nominate some frothing lunatic like NTK.  But the statewide Democratic Party would never do something so damn suicidal.  It's just Seattle that has these insane politics.  It's not like Seattle Dems are behind NTK either -- the LD organizations making these endorsements are dominated by just the same extremist activists as every other organization in this city and don't actually represent local Dems at all.

Hate to burst your bubble, but this is the chair of the WA Democratic Party:


Or claiming that Davison is an "MTG wannabe":


Oh I know.  Tina is awful.  But that doesn't really contradict what I said.  The state organization is dominated by Seattle loons.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 25, 2021, 06:26:10 PM
Wyman will take position in DHS, will be out as SoS. (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/10/25/politics/wyman-election-security-job/index.html?__twitter_impression=true) :(


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on October 25, 2021, 07:19:50 PM
Wyman will take position in DHS, will be out as SoS. (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/10/25/politics/wyman-election-security-job/index.html?__twitter_impression=true) :(

Damn, that's a loss for us.  She's the only Republican I've ever voted for.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crane on October 25, 2021, 08:38:20 PM
Wyman will take position in DHS, will be out as SoS. (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/10/25/politics/wyman-election-security-job/index.html?__twitter_impression=true) :(

Damn, that's a loss for us.  She's the only Republican I've ever voted for.

()

You are a Republican.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Utah Neolib on October 25, 2021, 09:24:21 PM
Wyman is a great choice to lead this.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: bgwah on October 26, 2021, 01:07:55 AM
I have some hypotheses about how Republicans might be able to put together a winning coalition, but doing so requires some major re-thinking of the electoral playing field which I don't think the state party is willing to consider at this time.

Do tell!

Alright, here's one of my ideas on how WA Republicans could put together a winning statewide coalition:

The most important thing to note here is that, for all intents and purposes, the core three counties of King, Snohomish, and Pierce are where the winner is decided. If a Republican wants to win the state, they need to win Pierce by a fair margin and at the very least come very close to winning Snohomish if not win it outright. They also need to keep the margin manageable in King; the absolute outer limit of how much they can lose King by is probably about 65-35 depending on how well they do elsewhere.

Traditionally, this manifested as winning cities like Sammamish, Newcastle, University Place, Bothell, Edmonds, Mukilteo, Mill Creek, etc. Basically anywhere higher in income and/or touching water not in Seattle.

However, I don't believe (outside of a few exceptions like Wyman) that this is a feasible strategy for Republicans in the short-to-medium term. These areas are exactly the types of areas which swung extremely hard away from Trump and the current Republican Party. Some of them may be able to be won back for a competent moderate-type, but these types of voters tend to be much more ideological and polarized. Fighting for these voters is swimming upstream against the current.

Instead, flip the script. Lean into the demographic and broader electoral changes which are happening and focus on lower income voters. Give up places like Sammamish and Edmonds. The goal should be to win over every possible voter outside of the white educated UMC. Go after Hispanics, Asians, Arabs, renters, union workers, and low-income workers of all stripes. Carve a red swath up and down Highway 99 to win Everett and maybe even Lynnwood from the inside out. Court voters in south King County: Kent, Auburn, Renton, Des Moines, even SeaTac. Bring down margins in southeast Seattle, White Center, Tukwila. Go after Lakewood, east Tacoma.

Here is a map, based on calculations from this thread (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=332068.msg8020900#msg8020900), which shows the areas which have the highest prevalence of "simple" communitarian ideology and would likely be the richest targets as mentioned above: (Image Link) (http://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Comm-WA.png)

Winning these types of voters also has secondary effects in potentially winning places like Pasco, Spokane north of I-90, and Skagit County while shoring up Yakima County. Kitsap would also almost certainly be more amenable to this type of party, outside of Bainbridge. The tricky part would be welding these voters on to existing Republican strengths without alienating too many of your own.

How do you actually win over these voters? That's a separate question I have some thoughts on, which I may post later.

In other words, the WA GOP needs Ann Davison to run for Governor in 2024.

Don't be stupid, WA GOP! Don't nominate another loser like Loren Culp. Nominate a brave and stunning woman like Ann Davison who can win in a landslide in 2024.
Why would she even run in the first place because if she loses the Governors race, I presume she'll probably lose the next election for City Attorney unless Thomas-Kennedy or another wacko gets in the runoff in 2025.

All the more reason to run for Governor in 2024!

Ann Davison will be the Charlie Baker or Phil Scott of WA.

The WA Dem Party is actively being taken over by a coalition of communists and anarchists. Washington is NOT a communist state. It is a LIBERAL state. And Ann Davison is going to teach radical Democrats a painful lesson, both in November 2021 and November 2024.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 26, 2021, 10:17:29 AM
Davison as the R nominee for Governor could potentially be an interesting choice, but she would certainly not make it through the primary unless the R vote was quite fractured. I don't think she really excites anyone on her own except as a foil to NTK, so I'm quite skeptical she could actually pull it off.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crane on October 26, 2021, 10:34:10 AM
Outside of a couple of people, why is D-WA such a consistently terrible avatar?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on October 26, 2021, 11:11:17 AM
Most statewide officeholders in Washington are not "loony" or "extreme" by any means. And no, lol, Davison is not winning as Governor (much less in a "landslide.") She's only winning this race because her opponent is a complete lunatic. Democrats are not about to get someone like Thomas Kennedy into the top two, so Davison would not have much of a chance.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on October 26, 2021, 11:05:14 PM
Kim Wyman's appointment is a politically sly move by the Biden Administration.  It makes them look bipartisan and it destroys whatever small chance Wyman had of becoming governor.  Now that she is associated with the Biden Administration there is zero chance she would survive a Republican Primary.  But Wyman probably realized her chances were slim anyway after speaking out against the Traitor Tot's lies about voter fraud.

Quote
On Tuesday, Crosscut spoke with several people in state and local politics about whom they would like to see fill Wyman’s shoes. Here are some of the names that have been floating to the top.
https://crosscut.com/politics/2021/10/short-list-ideas-replace-kim-wyman-wa-secretary-state (https://crosscut.com/politics/2021/10/short-list-ideas-replace-kim-wyman-wa-secretary-state)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on October 27, 2021, 01:36:27 AM
Wyman will take position in DHS, will be out as SoS. (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/10/25/politics/wyman-election-security-job/index.html?__twitter_impression=true) :(

Damn, that's a loss for us.  She's the only Republican I've ever voted for.

Well, Republicans managed to hold SoS seat since 1964 by running candidates like Wyman and Reed before her. But i doubt they have such candidates in this hyperpolarized mad world, where BOTH parties frequently run lunatics for office... (Seattle city attorney election is a good example)...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on October 29, 2021, 12:27:14 PM
Voted yesterday. I'll make a few predictions (not going to predict every race, obviously):

Mayor: Harrell 60-40
City Attorney: Davison 56-44
City Council Position 8: Mosqueda 57-43
City Council Position 9: Nelson 52-48


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on October 29, 2021, 07:01:18 PM
Voted yesterday. I'll make a few predictions (not going to predict every race, obviously):

Mayor: Harrell 60-40
City Attorney: Davison 56-44
City Council Position 8: Mosqueda 57-43
City Council Position 9: Nelson 52-48

If this actually happens catch me staggering down Pike Street on a Tuesday night drunkenly singing Clap aloooong if you feel like happiness is the truth


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on October 29, 2021, 07:56:13 PM
Davison as the R nominee for Governor could potentially be an interesting choice, but she would certainly not make it through the primary unless the R vote was quite fractured. I don't think she really excites anyone on her own except as a foil to NTK, so I'm quite skeptical she could actually pull it off.

If Davison wins this race then she's probably just gonna sit on the city attorney's post for as long as she can.  It may be another banner race in 2026, but simply keeping the office functional and responsible like a normal city attorney's office, instead of the ideology-driven farce it became under Holmes, is her way outperforming on her own apparent motivation for entering local politics, which was  to stop the rising crime around the city (but particularly in North Seattle where she lives).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Roll Roons on October 29, 2021, 08:09:28 PM
Voted yesterday. I'll make a few predictions (not going to predict every race, obviously):

Mayor: Harrell 60-40
City Attorney: Davison 56-44
City Council Position 8: Mosqueda 57-43
City Council Position 9: Nelson 52-48

I really hope you're right about that one.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: letsgobrandon on October 29, 2021, 10:43:14 PM
The sec of state election will be a safe r hold.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: lfromnj on October 29, 2021, 11:11:55 PM
What percent of the vote will Davison get in Broadmoor?

It was like 27% Trump and 67% Wyman. It also narrowly voted for Romney in 2012.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Roll Roons on October 29, 2021, 11:24:04 PM
What percent of the vote will Davison get in Broadmoor?

It was like 27% Trump and 67% Wyman. It also narrowly voted for Romney in 2012.

She does even better than Wyman.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on October 29, 2021, 11:59:09 PM
Yeah, I am getting the feeling that I’m going to write a eulogy that stresses the importance of base building and the importance of collective workers councils.

Oh well, the show is going to continue after the intermission.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: lfromnj on October 30, 2021, 12:04:27 AM
What percent of the vote will Davison get in Broadmoor?

It was like 27% Trump and 67% Wyman. It also narrowly voted for Romney in 2012.

She does even better than Wyman.

That much is obvious. The only question is how much :P


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ChineseConservative on October 30, 2021, 12:50:51 AM
What percent of the vote will Davison get in Broadmoor?

It was like 27% Trump and 67% Wyman. It also narrowly voted for Romney in 2012.

She does even better than Wyman.

That much is obvious. The only question is how much :P

Nice Username. Easily the best democrat in the state legislature, a man of conviction and integrity. While I am a straight GOP ticket voter, if he ever runs for further office outside his senate district he will have fully earned my vote ahead of time.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on October 30, 2021, 08:24:26 AM
Voted yesterday. I'll make a few predictions (not going to predict every race, obviously):

Mayor: Harrell 60-40
City Attorney: Davison 56-44
City Council Position 8: Mosqueda 57-43
City Council Position 9: Nelson 52-48

I really hope you're right about that one.

I’m pretty confident Davison will win. I have a difficult time imagining a Biden/NTK voter, and I know many Warren or Sanders/Davison voters (including myself.) Not to mention, my neighborhood is extremely Biden-friendly, has many BLM signs and Ive seen nothing but Davison signs. Given what I know about those further left than I am in this city, I don’t think there will be many “shy NTK voters.” It’s the Council Position 9 race that I’m the least sure about.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crane on October 30, 2021, 09:18:45 AM
Voted yesterday. I'll make a few predictions (not going to predict every race, obviously):

Mayor: Harrell 60-40
City Attorney: Davison 56-44
City Council Position 8: Mosqueda 57-43
City Council Position 9: Nelson 52-48

If this actually happens catch me staggering down Pike Street on a Tuesday night drunkenly singing Clap aloooong if you feel like happiness is the truth

I hope you know how much everyone cringes when you write stupid sh**t like this. You also come across as extremely entitled.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crane on October 30, 2021, 09:22:54 AM
Voted yesterday. I'll make a few predictions (not going to predict every race, obviously):

Mayor: Harrell 60-40
City Attorney: Davison 56-44
City Council Position 8: Mosqueda 57-43
City Council Position 9: Nelson 52-48

I really hope you're right about that one.

I’m pretty confident Davison will win. I have a difficult time imagining a Biden/NTK voter, and I know many Warren or Sanders/Davison voters (including myself.) Not to mention, my neighborhood is extremely Biden-friendly, has many BLM signs and Ive seen nothing but Davison signs. Given what I know about those further left than I am in this city, I don’t think there will be many “shy NTK voters.” It’s the Council Position 9 race that I’m the least sure about.

Serious question: what is exactly is attractive to you about a city attorney candidate who has only tried six cases in her life, enthusiastically supports "blue lives matter", has unsavory connections to someone involved in the January 6 riot, doesn't support mask mandates, and doesn't support LGBT-related education in schools? I mean, we know why Gmac supports her, and it's because he's an unashamed Republican hack. But your support is a lot more baffling.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on October 30, 2021, 10:04:33 AM
Voted yesterday. I'll make a few predictions (not going to predict every race, obviously):

Mayor: Harrell 60-40
City Attorney: Davison 56-44
City Council Position 8: Mosqueda 57-43
City Council Position 9: Nelson 52-48

I really hope you're right about that one.

I’m pretty confident Davison will win. I have a difficult time imagining a Biden/NTK voter, and I know many Warren or Sanders/Davison voters (including myself.) Not to mention, my neighborhood is extremely Biden-friendly, has many BLM signs and Ive seen nothing but Davison signs. Given what I know about those further left than I am in this city, I don’t think there will be many “shy NTK voters.” It’s the Council Position 9 race that I’m the least sure about.

Serious question: what is exactly is attractive to you about a city attorney candidate who has only tried six cases in her life, enthusiastically supports "blue lives matter", has unsavory connections to someone involved in the January 6 riot, doesn't support mask mandates, and doesn't support LGBT-related education in schools? I mean, we know why Gmac supports her, and it's because he's an unashamed Republican hack. But your support is a lot more baffling.

My vote is a purely anti-NTK vote. She literally wants to abolish the police and cheers on property damage, among many other crazy things. I may be quite left-wing, but that’s a bridge too far even for me. I don’t have high hopes for Davison, though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crane on October 30, 2021, 10:13:26 AM
Voted yesterday. I'll make a few predictions (not going to predict every race, obviously):

Mayor: Harrell 60-40
City Attorney: Davison 56-44
City Council Position 8: Mosqueda 57-43
City Council Position 9: Nelson 52-48

I really hope you're right about that one.

I’m pretty confident Davison will win. I have a difficult time imagining a Biden/NTK voter, and I know many Warren or Sanders/Davison voters (including myself.) Not to mention, my neighborhood is extremely Biden-friendly, has many BLM signs and Ive seen nothing but Davison signs. Given what I know about those further left than I am in this city, I don’t think there will be many “shy NTK voters.” It’s the Council Position 9 race that I’m the least sure about.

Serious question: what is exactly is attractive to you about a city attorney candidate who has only tried six cases in her life, enthusiastically supports "blue lives matter", has unsavory connections to someone involved in the January 6 riot, doesn't support mask mandates, and doesn't support LGBT-related education in schools? I mean, we know why Gmac supports her, and it's because he's an unashamed Republican hack. But your support is a lot more baffling.

My vote is a purely anti-NTK vote. She literally wants to abolish the police and cheers on property damage, among many other crazy things. I may be quite left-wing, but that’s a bridge too far even for me. I don’t have high hopes for Davison, though.

That really doesn't sound like an accurate evaluation of her views. Davison, on the other hand, is running solely out of racist NIMBYism and a desire to see petty criminals get long jail sentences. If anything, vote for neither - but NTK is a vote against a lot of the inequality in the criminal justice system that continues to be pervasive, so that would be an obvious vote for me.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on October 30, 2021, 12:04:32 PM
Voted yesterday. I'll make a few predictions (not going to predict every race, obviously):

Mayor: Harrell 60-40
City Attorney: Davison 56-44
City Council Position 8: Mosqueda 57-43
City Council Position 9: Nelson 52-48

I really hope you're right about that one.

I’m pretty confident Davison will win. I have a difficult time imagining a Biden/NTK voter, and I know many Warren or Sanders/Davison voters (including myself.) Not to mention, my neighborhood is extremely Biden-friendly, has many BLM signs and Ive seen nothing but Davison signs. Given what I know about those further left than I am in this city, I don’t think there will be many “shy NTK voters.” It’s the Council Position 9 race that I’m the least sure about.

Serious question: what is exactly is attractive to you about a city attorney candidate who has only tried six cases in her life, enthusiastically supports "blue lives matter", has unsavory connections to someone involved in the January 6 riot, doesn't support mask mandates, and doesn't support LGBT-related education in schools? I mean, we know why Gmac supports her, and it's because he's an unashamed Republican hack. But your support is a lot more baffling.

My vote is a purely anti-NTK vote. She literally wants to abolish the police and cheers on property damage, among many other crazy things. I may be quite left-wing, but that’s a bridge too far even for me. I don’t have high hopes for Davison, though.

That really doesn't sound like an accurate evaluation of her views. Davison, on the other hand, is running solely out of racist NIMBYism and a desire to see petty criminals get long jail sentences. If anything, vote for neither - but NTK is a vote against a lot of the inequality in the criminal justice system that continues to be pervasive, so that would be an obvious vote for me.

I didn’t want to believe it, but her Tweets really do speak for themselves, and an insincere “apology” (if we want to call it that) isn’t enough to convince me otherwise. She literally calls herself an abolitionist, and while there is absolutely a lot wrong with law enforcement, and simply throwing more people in prison is not going to solve issues of rising crime and homelessness in Seattle, neither will abolishing the police and not prosecuting any minor crimes. I’m not sure if Davison is motivated by NIMBYism so much as opportunism, and as I said, I don’t like her and would’ve definitely voted for Holmes over her, but it’s a two person race now, and I can’t allow someone like NTK to win.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: lfromnj on October 30, 2021, 12:48:32 PM
Xing how close would you place yourself to the median voter in Seattle ?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on October 30, 2021, 01:15:19 PM
Xing how close would you place yourself to the median voter in Seattle ?

Hard to say, maybe I’m somewhat close to the median? There are definitely voters to my right here, especially on economic issues, but there are also a fair amount of very far left-wing people here (though it does sort of depend on how left and right are defined), and I’m sort of in this no man’s land between the more moderate Democrats and the hardcore socialists. Gun to my head, the median voter is a hair to my right on economic issues and a hair to my left on social issues.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: lfromnj on October 30, 2021, 02:07:00 PM
Xing how close would you place yourself to the median voter in Seattle ?

Hard to say, maybe I’m somewhat close to the median? There are definitely voters to my right here, especially on economic issues, but there are also a fair amount of very far left-wing people here (though it does sort of depend on how left and right are defined), and I’m sort of in this no man’s land between the more moderate Democrats and the hardcore socialists. Gun to my head, the median voter is a hair to my right on economic issues and a hair to my left on social issues.

Yeah I figured you would be pretty close to the median. Should be a decent sign for Davison but you are definitely super high info .


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on October 30, 2021, 03:39:31 PM
Xing how close would you place yourself to the median voter in Seattle ?

Hard to say, maybe I’m somewhat close to the median? There are definitely voters to my right here, especially on economic issues, but there are also a fair amount of very far left-wing people here (though it does sort of depend on how left and right are defined), and I’m sort of in this no man’s land between the more moderate Democrats and the hardcore socialists. Gun to my head, the median voter is a hair to my right on economic issues and a hair to my left on social issues.

Yeah I figured you would be pretty close to the median. Should be a decent sign for Davison but you are definitely super high info .

Xing, as our Seattle median voter, what's your take on the Sawant Recall?  Do you support it (I believe you said once you live in D3)?

I am part of the operation and have access to internal polling so I will tell you whether you are accurate directionally.  Not authorized to share the actual numbers.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 30, 2021, 04:35:06 PM
Xing how close would you place yourself to the median voter in Seattle ?

Hard to say, maybe I’m somewhat close to the median? There are definitely voters to my right here, especially on economic issues, but there are also a fair amount of very far left-wing people here (though it does sort of depend on how left and right are defined), and I’m sort of in this no man’s land between the more moderate Democrats and the hardcore socialists. Gun to my head, the median voter is a hair to my right on economic issues and a hair to my left on social issues.

Yeah I figured you would be pretty close to the median. Should be a decent sign for Davison but you are definitely super high info .

Xing, as our Seattle median voter, what's your take on the Sawant Recall?  Do you support it (I believe you said once you live in D3)?

I am part of the operation and have access to internal polling so I will tell you whether you are accurate directionally.  Not authorized to share the actual numbers.

Would love to know, too. I could see it going either way, but my gut instinct says that recalls are hard, and I don't know that Sawant has done enough to directly, negatively impact people's lives in District 3 for the recall to be successful. Would love to be wrong, though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on October 30, 2021, 06:36:47 PM
Would love to know, too. I could see it going either way, but my gut instinct says that recalls are hard, and I don't know that Sawant has done enough to directly, negatively impact people's lives in District 3 for the recall to be successful. Would love to be wrong, though.

I've talked to dozens if not hundreds of people about this race and here is the general sense I get:

A) Most people are vaguely aware that Sawant has done a lot of shady, illegal stuff.  Even if it's not specifically the things she's being recalled for (which are bad enough on their own), the impression has been built up over years of, for instance, taxpayers being forced to spend millions defending her in court.

B) Although people dislike Sawant personally, they do like her policies (or at least, what they perceive as her policies) and feel like she is useful for "pulling the council to the left" or "being a loud voice for moving this city to the left."

C) That said, most of the people I talk to had at least a weak impression that she's ineffective at actually getting things passed and doesn't accomplish anything on the city council.

D) People don't really buy the argument that the recall is a bunch of right-wing racist Republicans.  In general this seems more like a GOTV thing that is preaching to the choir and not an attempt at persuasion from Sawant.

E) The technical details of the recall effort are too confusing for anyone to understand and they think both sides are pulling shenanigans.  Nobody really wants to follow any of this or care about any of this, they just want to vote.


Put it all together and my argument is always: "We can replace Sawant with someone who believes the exact same things, but doesn't do all the illegal, horrible stuff.  We deserve someone who's not just going to be a loud voice but will actually be able to work with other people and deliver these things.  Sawant works better as an activist who pressures people to do things, not as someone who actually has to build coalitions and pass legislation."

The recall campaign isn't running on this playbook though.  They are hyper-focused on precise, data-driven GOTV efforts.

My theory of this race has remained unchanged for several months:  Sawant's strongest skill is being able to gin up anger and hatred.  A direct referendum on her, rather than a contest against an opponent she can ruthlessly demonize, is her worst nightmare.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on October 30, 2021, 11:06:05 PM
I actually don’t live in District 3, but I would vote for the recall if I did. I used to think that Sawant was “necessary”, since I thought she was abrasive but at least worked in good faith toward solutions that would help with affordable housing and criminal justice reform, but I’ve come to see her as a grandstander who has done some pretty shady things. Looking back to 2019, I would’ve happily traded Sawant for Sean Scott, someone who shares a fair amount of her views but who would be a much more effective councilperson who wouldn’t seek as much attention.

As for whether it will be successful… if it were happening this November and were city-wide I think she would go down, and it probably wouldn’t be that close. Many who even support a lot of her views think she’s overstayed her welcome and isn’t actually helping address the homelessness crisis or bring about reform to the criminal justice system. However, since it’s not until December, turnout is naturally going to be lower and more concentrated among those who are engaged, and the fact that opponents have labeled it the “right wing” recall is probably going to turn some people off from it. Plus, Capitol Hill is the kind of place where Sawant is going to have a strong base of support, and some who don’t like her might still think that the recall is a waste of time and money. I think it’s going to be close, and I’m hoping my union doesn’t donate to help her, especially since there’s not a clear consensus among members, and some of my coworkers were privately not happy about the union considering this. If I had to guess, I think she’s at a slight disadvantage, but it’s far from guaranteed that the recall will be successful.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on November 02, 2021, 01:05:45 PM
Socialist Alternative’s website and Kshama Sawant’s main Twitter isn’t even focusing on the race today, they’ve been focusing on the recall for months now. Seems like they know that the progressive coalition expects to win maybe one or two races and that they’ve been saving up and preparing people for the Recall.

The race a month from now will be an incredibly competitive race, perhaps the most competitive SAlt has ever faced on account of the millions being invested against them by Suburban business money and the fact the ISA is flat broke from the pandemic and hasn’t invested in net gaining base building activity such as establishing workers collectives in it being “ultra-leftism”.

Still, SAlt and Kshama Sawant have immense ties within her district that will be hard for the machine to be easily beaten. I think tonight’s race will be vital in whether she will be recalled or not. If the progressive options win 51% or more in her district, their machine along with the help of all the other progressives should push them over the edge given they are much more energized for December.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on November 02, 2021, 07:11:39 PM
Anyone know what time we can expect the initial returns tonight?  The race will take over a week to truly be done but if Harrell or Davison has like a +25 margin on election night it should be safe to call.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 02, 2021, 07:45:08 PM
Anyone know what time we can expect the initial returns tonight?  The race will take over a week to truly be done but if Harrell or Davison has like a +25 margin on election night it should be safe to call.

Usually about 8:15.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 02, 2021, 10:36:04 PM
Harrell, Davidson up big in Seattle.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: lfromnj on November 02, 2021, 10:36:06 PM


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 02, 2021, 11:01:54 PM
The capital gains tax is so unpopular even King County wants to repeal it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Spectator on November 02, 2021, 11:06:52 PM
The most embarrassing part of the night for Dems is that a Republican likely just won a race in Seattle.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on November 02, 2021, 11:14:25 PM
Harrell has definitely won, Nelson almost certainly has, too (expected this race to be a bit closer, though her lead will probably shrink a bit), and since progressives usually gain in later ballots, Mosqueda likely wins as well. Davison is definitely favored, her lead will probably shrink, but there likely aren’t enough ballots left for NTK to catch up. Will likely end up a bit closer than my prediction, though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on November 02, 2021, 11:14:33 PM
Harrell +38K
Nelson +27K
Davison +22K

This is with 130K reporting.  The 2019 elections had about 250K turnout.

So I'm certainly not popping the champagne... there are still 120K late returns left that will result in dramatic swings towards the crazy candidates.

That said I think Harrell is pretty safe.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on November 02, 2021, 11:14:59 PM
The most embarrassing part of the night for Dems is that a Republican likely just won a race in Seattle.
Well that happens when the Democratic Party throws the progressives under the bus and form a grand coalition with the Republican Party with their billionaire-backed media blitz. Ultimately the progressive coalition could not beat it, in part due to Covid leaving them more cash strapped and with fewer core members (due to extraneous deaths) than usual, and in part with the progressive coalition failing to build dual power by not entrenching themselves—who right now are the most interconnected bloc with their voters and the public since the Socialist Party was relevant—even further into their voter base.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on November 02, 2021, 11:16:44 PM
The most embarrassing part of the night for Dems is that a Republican likely just won a race in Seattle.

It's extremely embarrassing for the WA Dems that any of them endorsed NTK in the first place, much less Shasti Conrad (KC Dems chair) being on her payroll.

NTK is not a Democrat.  She did not vote for Joe Biden.  Her campaign manager said she hoped Biden dies and praised Trump for being more lucid and intelligent than Biden.  There is no excuse for Democrats to be endorsing this awful candidate.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Spectator on November 02, 2021, 11:17:51 PM
The most embarrassing part of the night for Dems is that a Republican likely just won a race in Seattle.
Well that happens when the Democratic Party throws the progressives under the bus and form a grand coalition with the Republican Party with their billionaire-backed media blitz. Ultimately the progressive coalition could not beat it, in part due to Covid leaving them more cash strapped and with fewer core members (due to extraneous deaths) than usual, and in part with the progressive coalition failing to build dual power by not entrenching themselves—who right now are the most interconnected bloc with their voters and the public since the Socialist Party was relevant—even further into their voter base.

LOL Dems just lost an 80% Dem city, there’s no one to blame it on except for the psychotic candidate who wanted to abolish the police


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on November 02, 2021, 11:49:56 PM
The most embarrassing part of the night for Dems is that a Republican likely just won a race in Seattle.
Well that happens when the Democratic Party throws the progressives under the bus and form a grand coalition with the Republican Party with their billionaire-backed media blitz. Ultimately the progressive coalition could not beat it, in part due to Covid leaving them more cash strapped and with fewer core members (due to extraneous deaths) than usual, and in part with the progressive coalition failing to build dual power by not entrenching themselves—who right now are the most interconnected bloc with their voters and the public since the Socialist Party was relevant—even further into their voter base.

LOL Dems just lost an 80% Dem city, there’s no one to blame it on except for the psychotic candidate who wanted to abolish the police

That is wrong, the Progressive coalition lost tonight, not establishment Dems


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on November 03, 2021, 12:45:28 AM
Right, Harrell is an establishment Dem and ran a standard Dem campaign and it's looking like a landslide victory over the pathetic fraud Gonzalez.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on November 03, 2021, 01:02:12 AM
Harrell is honestly decently progressive, and his tenure on the council isn’t exactly that of a right-winger. Anyway, a good rule of thumb would be to add 5-6% to the candidate further left (or the one considered further left.) Sean Scott was down by about the same as NTK on Election Night, and he lost by 4 in the end. Might not play out the same way with later votes this year, but that’s just something to keep in mind.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Left Wing on November 03, 2021, 01:19:44 AM
It honestly depends on the candidate with that too, I mean Sawant was down by like 12 on election night in 2019 and won by four in the end, a similar outperformance could translate to like a one point Davison win. A lot of it really depends on how voting patterns since 2019 have changed


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on November 03, 2021, 04:04:42 AM
The most embarrassing part of the night for Dems is that a Republican likely just won a race in Seattle.
Well that happens when the Democratic Party throws the progressives under the bus and form a grand coalition with the Republican Party with their billionaire-backed media blitz. Ultimately the progressive coalition could not beat it, in part due to Covid leaving them more cash strapped and with fewer core members (due to extraneous deaths) than usual, and in part with the progressive coalition failing to build dual power by not entrenching themselves—who right now are the most interconnected bloc with their voters and the public since the Socialist Party was relevant—even further into their voter base.

LOL Dems just lost an 80% Dem city, there’s no one to blame it on except for the psychotic candidate who wanted to abolish the police


+101%. Luckily "progressives" also lost referendum in Minneapolis and, most likely, mayorality in Buffalo. May be all that will make Democratic party more sane and less "Trump in reverse.."


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on November 03, 2021, 04:05:38 AM
The most embarrassing part of the night for Dems is that a Republican likely just won a race in Seattle.
Well that happens when the Democratic Party throws the progressives under the bus and form a grand coalition with the Republican Party with their billionaire-backed media blitz. Ultimately the progressive coalition could not beat it, in part due to Covid leaving them more cash strapped and with fewer core members (due to extraneous deaths) than usual, and in part with the progressive coalition failing to build dual power by not entrenching themselves—who right now are the most interconnected bloc with their voters and the public since the Socialist Party was relevant—even further into their voter base.

LOL Dems just lost an 80% Dem city, there’s no one to blame it on except for the psychotic candidate who wanted to abolish the police

That is wrong, the Progressive coalition lost tonight, not establishment Dems

And thanks God for that....!!!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on November 03, 2021, 06:41:12 PM
Got our first update, not a big change, Davison’s lead is down percentage-wise slightly to 16%, but her raw vote lead is up slightly to 24K, so that’s a good sign for her, but still a lot left to count.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on November 03, 2021, 09:56:25 PM
The important thing to note here are the results in Kshama Sawant’s district.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on November 04, 2021, 01:04:32 AM
The important thing to note here are the results in Kshama Sawant’s district.

..I think it's pretty clear she's going down.

Ex: I'm a former Sawant voter who was fed up by her antics in the last year or two and know plenty of people who are in the same boat. The last election was heavily influenced by Amazon which created a perfect foil for Sawant. This go around all of the attention is solely on Sawant, which is not good for her prospects.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on November 04, 2021, 03:02:00 PM
The important thing to note here are the results in Kshama Sawant’s district.

..I think it's pretty clear she's going down.

Ex: I'm a former Sawant voter who was fed up by her antics in the last year or two and know plenty of people who are in the same boat. The last election was heavily influenced by Amazon which created a perfect foil for Sawant. This go around all of the attention is solely on Sawant, which is not good for her prospects.
Can Kshama Sawant run again if she is recalled? That, the results there for the 2nd, and the recall #s themselves will be vital to see how the future will be.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 07, 2021, 07:24:12 PM
I don't live in D3, but if I did, I'd vote no on the recall on principal (I generally feel that this should only be reserved for true wrongdoing & WI/CA gov recalls were dumb too). I fall in the same camp as CultureKing/Xing and would most likely vote against her in a one on one with a different candidate.

I think Harrell will be a better mayor than Durkan just based on his own council experience - which should make navigating city bureaucracy easier. I however have low expectations for him, particularly on the things that I care most about (housing/zoning + non-sov transportation).

I do wish Harrell the best of luck in steering our city these next four years - he'll need it - but I fear his vision is not going to prove effective. Happy to be wrong.

I voted for Oliver, but I think Sara Nelson will be fine on council. Davison on the other hand...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on November 07, 2021, 07:58:12 PM
The other union rep at my school and I did a poll to see how much support there would actually be for the current NBIs, including supporting Sawant and funding “ethnic studies”, which could include CRT. So far, 75% are asking us to vote no on both. We’ll vote based on what the people in our building want,  though I’m not sure other building reps are doing the same thing, and may just vote based on what they want. I still think Sawant is going down, but I’ll be a bit annoyed if the union basically goes against what most of its members want.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 10, 2021, 03:52:32 PM
Inslee selects Steve Hobbs (my senator) for interim SoS.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ogre Mage on November 10, 2021, 08:02:04 PM
I see political expediency in Gov. Inslee's selection of Sen. Hobbs for Secretary of State.  Inslee just removed a blockade to his climate-change agenda from the State Legislature.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on November 11, 2021, 05:02:29 AM
Democrats finally got SoS office. And i don't see more Wyman-type candidates in present mostly "solidly conservative" Republican party of this state.  So, Democrats got good chances to hold it next year..


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on November 11, 2021, 07:06:30 AM
Inslee selects Steve Hobbs (my senator) for interim SoS.
How competitive is his district ?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on November 11, 2021, 07:50:16 PM
Sawant participated in a "debate" with Henry Bridger II, the manager of the recall.  You can watch it on YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cU2di6MI4hM&feature=emb_imp_woyt

I put "debate" in quotes because Sawant runs roughshod over both Henry and the moderator, filibustering and gish galloping along for almost 80% of the debate and refusing to shut the f--- up.  Very reminiscent of Trump's first debate with Biden.

Even if you knew nothing about the issues in this race or what they're debating... can't you just tell who's the hero and who's the villain by which candidate is being aggressive, uncivil, and relentlessly launching personal attacks?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on November 11, 2021, 08:27:15 PM
Sawant participated in a "debate" with Henry Bridger II, the manager of the recall.  You can watch it on YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cU2di6MI4hM&feature=emb_imp_woyt

I put "debate" in quotes because Sawant runs roughshod over both Henry and the moderator, filibustering and gish galloping along for almost 80% of the debate and refusing to shut the f--- up.  Very reminiscent of Trump's first debate with Biden.

Even if you knew nothing about the issues in this race or what they're debating... can't you just tell who's the hero and who's the villain by which candidate is being aggressive, uncivil, and relentlessly launching personal attacks?
Dear god, we’re back to the “civility” meme of the late-2010s.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: The Invincible Brent Boggs on November 11, 2021, 08:38:54 PM
Biden +16. So, not too competitive, but perhaps enough so to make Democrats a bit nervous.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on November 13, 2021, 05:32:19 PM
Sawant participated in a "debate" with Henry Bridger II, the manager of the recall.  You can watch it on YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cU2di6MI4hM&feature=emb_imp_woyt

I put "debate" in quotes because Sawant runs roughshod over both Henry and the moderator, filibustering and gish galloping along for almost 80% of the debate and refusing to shut the f--- up.  Very reminiscent of Trump's first debate with Biden.

Even if you knew nothing about the issues in this race or what they're debating... can't you just tell who's the hero and who's the villain by which candidate is being aggressive, uncivil, and relentlessly launching personal attacks?
Dear god, we’re back to the “civility” meme of the late-2010s.

Being an absolute garbage person may have ended up being an asset for Trump but that doesn't mean it's an asset for all politicians.  Since I actually live about five minutes from her house and you live thousands of miles away, please listen to me when I tell you that most of the people in this district do not find Kshama Sawant's antics appealing.  They vote for her in spite of her being 100% trash.  The only people who like her despicable personality and behavior are SocAlt cultists, who constitute less than 1% of the district.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on November 16, 2021, 03:03:47 PM
With all but a small handful left to count, looks like it’s Davison +3.8. A fairly close call, but definitely suggests that the politics of Seattle voters are a little more nuanced than most suggest.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on November 22, 2021, 10:55:10 AM
Ballots for the recall are out, I've already returned my YES vote.

I was surprised to see that Sawant is allowed almost the entire ballot space to write her response to the recall, right above the bubble that voters fill in.


()


Her response contains numerous falsehoods.  For instance, she says the recall is "bankrolled" by "500+ Republicans", but there's absolutely no way she could know this since party registration is private and not reported on donations -- not to mention that 500 people is only 10% of the recall's donor base, so even if this were true, the use of the term "bankrolled" is very dishonest.  Sawant also doesn't donate her $140,000 salary to "social justice movements" -- she donates it to Socialist Alternative, which is herself, and her husband.  That's like if Bezos said he was "donating" his Amazon salary to Blue Origin and expected to be praised for it.

It's pretty shocking to me that she's allowed to write something this false right on the ballot, especially because the Recall language at the top had to be carefully crafted to satisfy various legal requirements and endured several court challenges regarding its truthfulness.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on November 22, 2021, 11:08:27 AM
As a side note, the case made by Sawant and her media allies regarding the charges themselves is very inconsistent and muddled.

The second sentence in her response is "the courts haven't found her guilty of anything."  However, she herself already admitted to guilt on charge 1.  And in the second-to-last paragraph, she says "it's no crime to stand with BLM as Sawant did at the peaceful city hall rally", so she's admitting to guilt on charge 2 as well (yes, it was a crime).  So is she saying she's not guilty?  Or is she saying she is guilty, but shouldn't be recalled until the courts agree that she's guilty?

Sawant has also said repeatedly, including in the debate, that the charges are "completely false."  So which is it?  Like with so many Sawant things, it just feels like debating Trump supporters.  "Trump never did any of those things you're accusing him of, but also it's a good thing that he did them."  There's no integrity here, it's just making multiple layers of backup arguments simultaneously.

On charge 3 Sawant has gone to absurd and unbelievable lengths to try and demonstrate how false it is.  First she tried to claim that she didn't give out Durkan's address -- tough to believe, but impossible to prove, which is why this is a recall and not a criminal trial.  She could've just stopped there.  But then she tried to claim that the march was BLM-organized and she had nothing to do with it, which is absurd on its face, since she was the featured speaker at the march and the march was packed full of her Socialist Alternative people -- it was clearly a Socialist Alternative march where they used the more popular BLM banner.  Then she went even further and tried to claim that she had no idea what Jenny Durkan's address was and that she didn't even know they were close to Durkan's home.  This is just such an obvious lie.  You really think she was just a babe in the woods being carried along in this march where nobody mentioned they were going to the mayor's house?  On top of that, her speech was basically "hey Jenny Durkan, screw you, come out and fight me" so obviously she knew she was at the mayor's house.

The Stranger wrote an article endorsing her, where they start off by saying all the charges are false, but then later on go through the charges and admit that 1+2 are true (they repeat the Sawant talking points on 3) but say "we don't care if she's guilty, because we like her, so suck it."  Oops, sorry, the correct answer was "the courts have not found her guilty of anything."


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on November 22, 2021, 12:35:29 PM
Socialist Alternative is not “her and her husband”. Sawant is not to my knowledge on the council that leads her party. The party does not even have an executive office.

More lies and lies from GMac. Taking the Trump playbook of repeating everything till you Hope it becomes believable.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on November 22, 2021, 01:09:22 PM
Socialist Alternative is not “her and her husband”. Sawant is not to my knowledge on the council that leads her party. The party does not even have an executive office.

More lies and lies from GMac. Taking the Trump playbook of repeating everything till you Hope it becomes believable.

Sawant's current husband is an employee of Socialist Alternative and takes home tens of thousands of dollars a year in pay.  He is currently receiving a paycheck for his work on the Sawant campaign.  If Sawant gives SocAlt $25,000 and then SocAlt gives her husband $25,000 then yes she is paying herself.

But it's a silly point anyway because it's not like Socialist Alternative is some charity.  It's an organization that exists almost entirely to support Sawant.  It is her entire life and livelihood.  It is her sole interest and the entirety of her social group.  All that money she "donates" to Socialist Alternative gets spent promoting her image and helping her maintain political power.  Not to mention that a lot of the money she "donates" is actually mandatory tithing because Socialist Alternative is a weird f---ing cult and you get kicked out if you don't give them oodles of cash.

Her "donating" her salary to Socialist Alternative is basically the same thing as Michael Bloomberg "donating" $100MM to his own presidential campaign.  If Bloomberg had tried to claim that he was donating to "social justice causes" by labeling his own campaign as a "social justice cause" he would have been laughed out of the room.  But because it's your communist queen pulling this stunt, you have to defend her, even though deep down you know it sounds dumb af.

If maintaining her office is so important to her that she decides to spend her own money out-of-pocket to pay teenagers to stand around in red shirts waving signs and harassing people who walk by all day, that's her right, be my guest.  I wouldn't have a problem with it.  But she never misses an opportunity to be dishonest.  So instead she labels that as "donating my salary to social justice causes" and expects to be applauded for it.  It's just one of 100,000 different things Sawant does that's sleazy and obnoxious and I'm so sick of it all.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on November 22, 2021, 01:45:18 PM
What mess is this
Socialist Alternative is not “her and her husband”. Sawant is not to my knowledge on the council that leads her party. The party does not even have an executive office.

More lies and lies from GMac. Taking the Trump playbook of repeating everything till you Hope it becomes believable.

Sawant's current husband is an employee of Socialist Alternative and takes home tens of thousands of dollars a year in pay.  He is currently receiving a paycheck for his work on the Sawant campaign.  If Sawant gives SocAlt $25,000 and then SocAlt gives her husband $25,000 then yes she is paying herself.
So you are moving the goalpost and saying that they aren’t apart of SAlts leadership

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But it's a silly point anyway because it's not like Socialist Alternative is some charity.  It's an organization that exists almost entirely to support Sawant.  It is her entire life and livelihood.  It is her sole interest and the entirety of her social group.  All that money she "donates" to Socialist Alternative gets spent promoting her image and helping her maintain political power.  Not to mention that a lot of the money she "donates" is actually mandatory tithing because Socialist Alternative is a weird f---ing cult and you get kicked out if you don't give them oodles of cash.
I’m almost sure that’s not all that they do. I’m pretty sure they have chapters in several states that run candidates, support unions through solidarity campaigns and financing of strike funds, and anti-war and anti-fascist protests. Then there’s the electoral work the DSA and Democrats assign them to though.

This “tithing”, lol, are called dues. So far I have not heard SAlt bankrupting their members or treating them terribly, and this is standard practice on all labor parties. On dues, if they are structured the same way as 1930s CPUSA or the modern PSL, it’s most likely a gradual dues bracket with discounts and exceptions for students and the unemployed. This grassroots funding makes the organization beholden to its members.
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Her "donating" her salary to Socialist Alternative is basically the same thing as Michael Bloomberg "donating" $100MM to his own presidential campaign.  If Bloomberg had tried to claim that he was donating to "social justice causes" by labeling his own campaign as a "social justice cause" he would have been laughed out of the room.  But because it's your communist queen pulling this stunt, you have to defend her, even though deep down you know it sounds dumb af.
No, it’s perfectly correct because the organization does do all these things on their already shoe-string budget, made worse by the pandemic.

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If maintaining her office is so important to her that she decides to spend her own money out-of-pocket to pay teenagers to stand around in red shirts waving signs and harassing people who walk by all day, that's her right, be my guest.  I wouldn't have a problem with it.  But she never misses an opportunity to be dishonest.  So instead she labels that as "donating my salary to social justice causes" and expects to be applauded for it.  It's just one of 100,000 different things Sawant does that's sleazy and obnoxious and I'm so sick of it all.
The work of SAlt in just Washington brought along a minimum wage increase, work towards affordable housing and actually solving the homeless crisis— and have given the nonwhite, small business, and working population in Seattle a real voice and representative in city hall.

Of course your sick of it, you hate any sort of thing that threatens your status and don’t want to share the table fairly with the oppressed in our society.

You know, if we were talking about FTP or the RCP you could have the excuse of muh Stalinism, but not here on a social democratic Party who likes to be edgy in calling their opponents tankies and supporting every single rebellion in all socialist states. Love of god this is weak sauce.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on November 22, 2021, 02:19:55 PM
So you are moving the goalpost and saying that they aren’t apart of SAlts leadership

How am I moving the goalposts?  I said that "donating to Socialist Alternative is just donating to herself."  Both she and her husband profit substantially from Socialist Alternative activities.  Sawant is clearly the #1 beneficiary of all SocAlt spending.  Her husband literally draws his paycheck from her "donations."

I’m almost sure that’s not all that they do. I’m pretty sure they have chapters in several states that run candidates, support unions through solidarity campaigns and financing of strike funds, and anti-war and anti-fascist protests. Then there’s the electoral work the DSA and Democrats assign them to though.

What % of Socialist Alternative's campaign funds goes towards these hopeless no-name candidates, and what % goes towards keeping Sawant in power in D3?  The only other place they've even come relatively close is the Minneapolis City Council, and it's been 4 years since they tried there.  Their website doesn't mention any other political campaigns or candidates other than Sawant.

I've never seen any evidence of them "financing strike funds" or doing anything for unions, anti-war, anti-fash, etc. other than marching and raising signs (which are really just a means to try and recruit for the cult).  If they do these kinds of things, they don't talk about it at all.  My neighborhood is absolutely blanketed with Socialist Alternative media, and it's 100% promoting Sawant and her issues or attacking her many enemies.

The work of SAlt in just Washington brought along a minimum wage increase

Dear God am I so f---ing tired of this myth.  Kshama Sawant and Socialist Alternative didn't do a damn thing for the $15 minimum wage.  Go look up the Wikipedia article for the Seattle $15 wage and you'll find zero mentions of Kshama Sawant or Socialist Alternative.  All they did was show up at the very end of the movement to have a few Socialist Alternative events where they waved "Fight for $15" banners, and then Sawant took credit for the entire thing, and for some reason people decided to believe her.

work towards affordable housing and actually solving the homeless crisis— and have given the nonwhite, small business, and working population in Seattle a real voice and representative in city hall

She literally hasn't done any of this.  She's not anybody's representative.  It's impossible to speak to her or get her to care about local issues.  You call Sawant's office and you're redirected to a Socialist Alternative propagandist who tries to tell you your local issues don't matter and what really matters are the broad, global political issues she's allegedly fighting for.  The only thing she ever does for the district is seek out disgruntled tenants so she can hold events targeting their landlords for harassment and vandalism and then take credit for any good thing the landlord does.  Whenever there's public comment at city hall she packs the room with her own supporters so she's literally preventing anyone else from having a voice.  And don't get me started on how much mutual hostility and hatred there is between her and 95% of small businesses in D3 (really everyone except Squirrel Chops).

It continues to astound me how much you enjoy lecturing me about all the good Sawant has done for my neighborhood and how much we all love her.  I live here.  It's a very small district.  You can walk from one side of it to the other in half an hour.  I can probably list every single small business in D3.  But please do continue sitting up there in Illinois telling me all about how wrong my lived experience is and what a clueless idiot I am about my own district and my own representative.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on November 22, 2021, 03:21:48 PM
So you are moving the goalpost and saying that they aren’t apart of SAlts leadership

How am I moving the goalposts?  I said that "donating to Socialist Alternative is just donating to herself."  Both she and her husband profit substantially from Socialist Alternative activities.  Sawant is clearly the #1 beneficiary of all SocAlt spending.  Her husband literally draws his paycheck from her "donations."
You said her “and her husband” are SAlt, as in they were leadership. Clearly that was incorrect and now you are moving the goalpost

Both Kshama and her husband, who the latter works in the electoral division in the party long before getting married, at longtime members and party officials in the party along with any other job they both might have. SAlt is dispersed nationwide across the country, and in the upper brass there’s limited amount of social contacts for them to make.

So far there’s been no investigation into this precisely because the Feds won’t find anything, because most parties have strict measures to prevent embezzlement of funds. Her husband’s paycheck from the party comes from other sources from his work, and unless there’s credible evidence of wrongdoing this is all conspiracy horse••••

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I’m almost sure that’s not all that they do. I’m pretty sure they have chapters in several states that run candidates, support unions through solidarity campaigns and financing of strike funds, and anti-war and anti-fascist protests. Then there’s the electoral work the DSA and Democrats assign them to though.

What % of Socialist Alternative's campaign funds goes towards these hopeless no-name candidates, and what % goes towards keeping Sawant in power in D3?  The only other place they've even come relatively close is the Minneapolis City Council, and it's been 4 years since they tried there.  Their website doesn't mention any other political campaigns or candidates other than Sawant.

I've never seen any evidence of them "financing strike funds" or doing anything for unions, anti-war, anti-fash, etc. other than marching and raising signs (which are really just a means to try and recruit for the cult).  If they do these kinds of things, they don't talk about it at all.  My neighborhood is absolutely blanketed with Socialist Alternative media, and it's 100% promoting Sawant and her issues or attacking her many enemies.
Well they are active in  aiding the Minneapolis United for Health Control by guiding their chapters to fund and protest for rent control with them and all other [url=https://mpls4rentcontrol.org/]organizations (https://www.socialistalternative.org/2021/08/30/mpls-city-council-backs-down-to-mayor-freys-veto-lessons-for-the-next-phase-of-the-fight-for-rent-control/)

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To maintain maximum unity in the face of a City Council which was already waffling, Minneapolis United for Rent Control shared Home to Stay’s call to action, which called on the City Council to vote yes on both “charter amendments.”

Quote
MINNEAPOLIS UNITED FOR RENT CONTROL IS ENDORSED BY NUMEROUS ORGANIZATIONS, INCLUDING:
THE HARRISON NEIGHBORHOOD ASSOCIATION, SOCIALIST ALTERNATIVE, THE MINNESOTA NURSES ASSOCIATION (MNA), AMALGAMATED TRANSIT UNION LOCAL 1005 (ATU 1005), CORCORAN NEIGHBORHOOD ORGANIZATION, CENTRO DE TRABAJADORES UNIDOS EN LUCHA (CTUL), MINNESOTA ASSOCIATION OF PROFESSIONAL EMPLOYEES (MAPE), MINNEAPOLIS FEDERATION OF TEACHERS AND EDUCATIONAL SUPPORT PROFESSIONALS (MFT 59), UNITE HERE LOCAL 17, CAIR-MN, THE RESTAURANT OPPORTUNITIES CENTER – MN, BLACK VISIONS, RECLAIM THE BLOCK, CEDAR RIVERSIDE COMMUNITY COUNCIL, SEWARD NEIGHBORHOOD GROUP, AYADA LEADS, TWIN CITIES DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISTS OF AMERICA (TC-DSA), SHILOH TEMPLE INTERNATIONAL MINISTRIES, THE MINNESOTA STATE BAPTIST CONVENTION, AND NUMEROUS OTHER FAITH-BASED ORGANIZATIONS.

In Philadelphia, aside from aiding the DSA and Green Party’s (https://www.gp.org/2021_candidate_endorsements) campaigns, which amount to them aiding canvassing and helping organizing rallies, they also are involved in the fight against police brutality (https://www.gp.org/stop_the_station) with other community groups. That’s not counting the individual actions for other progressive causes that individual chapters do, of which would be insane for me to list them out.

Like during 1/6, SAlt primarily gets members organized through their website or social media. Any notification of a protest going on then isn’t just for news purposes but a calling for members and entire chapters to attend.

Also, with stronger labor links than the DSA, I would not be surprised that they are involved heavily in the labor organizing EWOC. Given that SAlt’s memo is entryism, one of the main things they do is not take credit for their involvement in the greater organization to not take away momentum so as to not get purged.

Also,
Here is them helping the joint SAlt—DSA effort for city council (https://www.socialistalternative.org/2021/05/12/aftermath-of-george-floyd-rebellion-shapes-minneapolis-2021-elections/). I would not be surprised that the candidate was a SAlt member, not like it matters given SAlt is effectively a unique faction in the DSA at this point.
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The work of SAlt in just Washington brought along a minimum wage increase

Dear God am I so f---ing tired of this myth.  Kshama Sawant and Socialist Alternative didn't do a damn thing for the $15 minimum wage.  Go look up the Wikipedia article for the Seattle $15 wage and you'll find zero mentions of Kshama Sawant or Socialist Alternative.  All they did was show up at the very end of the movement to have a few Socialist Alternative events where they waved "Fight for $15" banners, and then Sawant took credit for the entire thing, and for some reason people decided to believe her.
Well no s•••, the Union leaders agitating for this for years don’t mention their political affiliation nor does Wikipedia have a fair method of sourcing party websites as in-itself news organizations. And no, SAlt did help in this by the massive canvassing campaign they did that finally did it in (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialist_Alternative_(United_States)#15_Now). Her election made it a reform or lose elections moment among the wider Democratic Party in Seattle. This is pure historical revisionism to say that her power and threat among Democrats haven’t pushed them left locally and in rhetoric, just as it’s effects have been seen nationally.

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work towards affordable housing and actually solving the homeless crisis— and have given the nonwhite, small business, and working population in Seattle a real voice and representative in city hall

She literally hasn't done any of this.  She's not anybody's representative.  It's impossible to speak to her or get her to care about local issues.  You call Sawant's office and you're redirected to a Socialist Alternative propagandist who tries to tell you your local issues don't matter and what really matters are the broad, global political issues she's allegedly fighting for.  The only thing she ever does for the district is seek out disgruntled tenants so she can hold events targeting their landlords for harassment and vandalism and then take credit for any good thing the landlord does.  Whenever there's public comment at city hall she packs the room with her own supporters so she's literally preventing anyone else from having a voice.  And don't get me started on how much mutual hostility and hatred there is between her and 95% of small businesses in D3 (really everyone except Squirrel Chops).

It continues to astound me how much you enjoy lecturing me about all the good Sawant has done for my neighborhood and how much we all love her.  I live here.  It's a very small district.  You can walk from one side of it to the other in half an hour.  I can probably list every single small business in D3.  But please do continue sitting up there in Illinois telling me all about how wrong my lived experience is and what a clueless idiot I am about my own district and my own representative.
[/quote]
Going to her office in person is apparently different, given the connections across immigrant groups and labor SAlt and she has. This is further evident by the endorsement list against the recall and the policies pushed by SAlt, being endorsed by community leaders and small businesses as listed in the endorsement page. Your miasma on focusing on reactionary elements of the local Seattle elite is not my problem.

Housing is a human right and landlords should not exist, but this is another conversation.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on November 22, 2021, 04:40:04 PM
Man it's so clear that you don't know anything about D3.  Please tell me, which immigrant groups feel that Sawant is their champion?  Which small businesses support her?  Which community organizations support her?

You see, you won't actually be able to find any.  Real community organizations, like the Capitol Hill Community Fund or GenPride, have never been on Sawant's side.  The only "community organizations" on her side are left-wing political organizations like MLK Labor or KC Equity Now, which call themselves the voice of the community, but clearly aren't.  These organizations also endorsed NTK, Oliver, and Gonzalez, who lost in a landslide.

Also you continue to post malarkey about $15.  You claim Socialist Alternative "finally did it in" with their canvassing campaign.  But your own link states that this campaign took place after Sawant was elected -- which would have been the same time that the city elected Ed Murray, who made the $15 minimum wage the centerpiece of his mayoral campaign.  The election of Murray meant that $15 was already a done deal by the time your "massive canvassing campaign" started.  As someone who actually lived here at the time and saw all this play out in real time, I can tell you for a fact that Socialist Alternative wasn't accomplishing anything with their campaign other than grabbing attention for themselves, stealing credit for the win and using it as a recruitment opportunity.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Continential on November 22, 2021, 05:22:41 PM
Did Thomas-Kennedy/Gonzalez win Sawant's district?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 22, 2021, 05:28:54 PM
Did Thomas-Kennedy/Gonzalez win Sawant's district?

Final precinct results aren't in for two more days, but NTK almost certainly did.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on November 23, 2021, 06:38:21 PM
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Nu5A3_CdhifdkMix4Lx0TpaYA-poSMIF/view

Quote
Joint Statement from the Jewish, Black, and Asian Communities

“Justice, justice you shall pursue”
Deuteronomy 16:20

Religious and community leaders from across Seattle today joined together in support of the Recall Sawant campaign, issuing the following statement:

Today, we want to make something emphatically clear: Councilmember Kshama Sawant does not speak for us, nor our communities. Only we can do that, and only we should do that.

In making this statement, we encourage District 3 voters to support the Recall of Councilmember Kshama Sawant.

We have not come to this recommendation lightly. We practice and teach acceptance and forgiveness. But District 3 voters ought to be aware of Sawant’s long history of attacking our communities and hi-jacking our efforts.

Sawant regularly trades in rhetoric that gives rise to antisemitism, resulting in violence and hatred directed at the Jewish community. She has also stoked chaos in the black community and sought to hijack the efforts of Black Lives Matter organizers to promote her own political agenda. These behaviors have been well documented by news coverage and amount to a record that we simply cannot condone or support.

Kshama Sawant has consistently sought to exploit and politicize the painful circumstances of our communities for her own personal gain. These craven behaviors do nothing more than to further divide us as people and contribute to the incitement and spreading of hate.

The Seattle Asian community has repeatedly attempted to bring concerns to Councilmember Sawant regarding the loss of vibrancy in the International District resulting from the cities lax attitude toward crime in the district.

Sawant refuses to advocate for the Asian community because she falsely equates crime with poverty and exploits our problems for political gain. Small businesses are still recovering from damage sustained during riots where so many businesses experienced violent property damage and looting – much of which she encouraged.

Sawant appropriates the cultural identity of the Asian community for political gain and gamesmanship – but turns her back on the community’s needs. That is why we support the recall of Kshama Sawant.

Our communities support the recall of Kshama Sawant because she admitted to guilt in using city resources to support a ballot initiative and failed to comply with public disclosure requirement related to this support; she disobeyed state orders related to Covid 19 by admitting hundreds of people into City Hall on June 9th of 2020 when it was closed, endangering public workers; and, she led a protest to Mayor Jenny Durkan’s, the location which Sawant knows is protected under state confidentiality laws.

As the Seattle Times recently said in their endorsement of the Recall – “Voters should hold Sawant accountable for transgressions against civil governance and remove her from office”.

These are not characteristics of those who should be trusted to lead our people, and why we cannot support Sawant remaining in office.

Signed by a very long list of about 100 local faith+community leaders.

This probably goes against some narrative or something.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on November 23, 2021, 06:46:29 PM
Glad that my union did not end up financially supporting her, although several members got very salty about that. There are much better progressives out there than her.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 24, 2021, 07:55:37 PM
Final Seattle precinct results:

Mayor (Harrell red, Gonzalez green):
()

Attorney (Davison blue, NTK green):
()

Council Position #8 (Mosqueda green, Wilson red):
()

Council Position #9 (Oliver green, Nelson red):
()

NTK vs Gonzalez (Blue = NTK > Gonzalez, Pink = Gonzalez > NTK):
()


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 24, 2021, 08:01:44 PM
Results in the 3rd Council District:

49.93% Harrell
49.85% Gonzalez

56.75% NTK
42.46% Davison

67.99% Mosqueda
31.57% Wilson

55.33% Oliver
44.52% Nelson


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 24, 2021, 09:02:34 PM
The Mosqueda/Wilson race results really highlights the wealthiest neighborhoods (apart from N. Capitol Hill that voted for Mosqueda and that one Wilson South Park precinct).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on November 24, 2021, 09:18:26 PM
Results in the 3rd Council District:

49.93% Harrell
49.85% Gonzalez

56.75% NTK
42.46% Davison

67.99% Mosqueda
31.57% Wilson

55.33% Oliver
44.52% Nelson
Right now the recall is slightly favored, but the massive connections and grassroots ties to the community will be put to the test and will perform amicably. What many don’t realize is that Kshama Sawant is more moderate than NTK and on the same par as the other candidates.

Amazon and the suburban elite will pour a hefty fortune in attacks on Sawant’s character, so she needs to have some finesse in responding to the non-sequiters her way.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on November 26, 2021, 08:56:17 PM
Just saw my first Sawant recall ad on TV (pro recall). While it was clearly targeted at moderates to drive turnout and give talking points, rather than convincing undecideds, it also hit her on violating COVID protocols, which is a good "hit them where they seem strongest" line, and not a criticism I remember hearing often against her.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 29, 2021, 12:35:01 PM
Reagan Dunn is running against Kim Shrier.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on November 30, 2021, 09:10:54 PM
Only one week to go until the Sawant Recall election.

One the ground here in D3, the Sawant people have been out in force all over the Capitol Hill core.  My Recall Sawant yard sign has been stolen, I put up another one, it got stolen again, I put up another one, it got stolen again, so now I'm on my 4th one, and I bet by the time I finish writing this, it will have been stolen.  Of course none of this is too surprising since I'm likely the only person in my precinct who will be voting to recall.  All the flyers I've received, however, have been from the Recall campaign.  I've also heard they put up TV ads, although since I don't watch TV I haven't seen them.

Although Sawant has spent the last six months crying about "voter suppression" due to its being a separate election, it looks like the recall election will actually have higher turnout than the general election!  Somehow 86 people have used fax machines to fax in their ballots, which I didn't even know was an option.

You can see that the map of early turnout heavily favors the Recall campaign as in general the closer you are to the coast, the more anti-Sawant it gets.

()

However I would hesitate before making any conjectures based on this data since Sawant voters notoriously wait until the absolute last second.  If the Recall isn't up by at least 60-40 on election night then she'll probably win in a landslide.  One of the truly aggravating aspects of our local elections, and to make matters worse, local media is all salivating to write their conclusions based on the election night returns, when we literally know nothing.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: StateBoiler on December 02, 2021, 09:51:44 AM
Only one week to go until the Sawant Recall election.

One the ground here in D3, the Sawant people have been out in force all over the Capitol Hill core.  My Recall Sawant yard sign has been stolen, I put up another one, it got stolen again, I put up another one, it got stolen again, so now I'm on my 4th one, and I bet by the time I finish writing this, it will have been stolen.

Put up a camera and record the car license plate number. 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on December 02, 2021, 11:52:17 AM
Only one week to go until the Sawant Recall election.

One the ground here in D3, the Sawant people have been out in force all over the Capitol Hill core.  My Recall Sawant yard sign has been stolen, I put up another one, it got stolen again, I put up another one, it got stolen again, so now I'm on my 4th one, and I bet by the time I finish writing this, it will have been stolen.

Put up a camera and record the car license plate number. 

I legitimately looked into this but the Recall campaign said people have already sent them these kinds of videos and they can't do anything with them so there's no point.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 02, 2021, 12:12:16 PM
Only one week to go until the Sawant Recall election.

One the ground here in D3, the Sawant people have been out in force all over the Capitol Hill core.  My Recall Sawant yard sign has been stolen, I put up another one, it got stolen again, I put up another one, it got stolen again, so now I'm on my 4th one, and I bet by the time I finish writing this, it will have been stolen.

Put up a camera and record the car license plate number.

Even if he did, there's no way Seattle PD would do anything about it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on December 02, 2021, 12:30:18 PM
I think Sawant was able to successfully frame the 2019 election as a referendum on Amazon and big money (at least somewhat) and people who weren't big fans of her were willing to hold their nose and vote for her as a way of expressing discontent with the amount Amazon donated to the city council positions. I don't think this is going to work in her favor this time around, and the pro-Sawant crowd hasn't done themselves any favors with some of their more aggressive tactics. While calling it the "right-wing recall" may sway some people, I think people have had enough, and that she goes down by between 5 and 10%.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: StateBoiler on December 02, 2021, 01:07:26 PM
Only one week to go until the Sawant Recall election.

One the ground here in D3, the Sawant people have been out in force all over the Capitol Hill core.  My Recall Sawant yard sign has been stolen, I put up another one, it got stolen again, I put up another one, it got stolen again, so now I'm on my 4th one, and I bet by the time I finish writing this, it will have been stolen.

Put up a camera and record the car license plate number.

I legitimately looked into this but the Recall campaign said people have already sent them these kinds of videos and they can't do anything with them so there's no point.

Sure, but you can just publicize and kill any career in politics that person wanted to have. If it's a guy working for Sawant's party, it's a bonus for you considering you don't like them.

Lie in wait, have your phone on, guy comes up, start recording. "Hi, you're trespassing my yard. What are you doing removing my sign from it? What's your name? Oh that's a nice Hyundai you have there. I see your license plate number is AK1964." Then put it on social media. :D


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on December 02, 2021, 01:19:56 PM
Only one week to go until the Sawant Recall election.

One the ground here in D3, the Sawant people have been out in force all over the Capitol Hill core.  My Recall Sawant yard sign has been stolen, I put up another one, it got stolen again, I put up another one, it got stolen again, so now I'm on my 4th one, and I bet by the time I finish writing this, it will have been stolen.

Put up a camera and record the car license plate number.

I legitimately looked into this but the Recall campaign said people have already sent them these kinds of videos and they can't do anything with them so there's no point.

Sure, but you can just publicize and kill any career in politics that person wanted to have. If it's a guy working for Sawant's party, it's a bonus for you considering you don't like them.

Lie in wait, have your phone on, guy comes up, start recording. "Hi, you're trespassing my yard. What are you doing removing my sign from it? What's your name? Oh that's a nice Hyundai you have there. I see your license plate number is AK1964." Then put it on social media. :D

It doesn't matter.  Four years ago Nikkita Oliver recorded -- on their own phone! -- a security video of themself harrassing a Safeway security guard and calling him a white supremacist.  They ended up getting the guy fired just because Safeway wanted to avoid the hassle.  A few months earlier they claimed on social media that they were attacked by a dog and then lost for hours in the wild forests of West Seattle.  This insanity was all in 2017 shortly after they lost the mayoral primary to Cary Moon.  And yet four years later they were a serious candidate for city council and nobody remembered/cared that they did all this crazy s--t.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on December 04, 2021, 12:21:05 AM
I think Sawant was able to successfully frame the 2019 election as a referendum on Amazon and big money (at least somewhat) and people who weren't big fans of her were willing to hold their nose and vote for her as a way of expressing discontent with the amount Amazon donated to the city council positions. I don't think this is going to work in her favor this time around, and the pro-Sawant crowd hasn't done themselves any favors with some of their more aggressive tactics. While calling it the "right-wing recall" may sway some people, I think people have had enough, and that she goes down by between 5 and 10%.
They were able to do so because it is the truth, the billionaires and other elite, but mainly the billionaires are the ones against her



This isn’t a matter of “tactics” dragging her down, indeed SAlt plays the game by an already biased rule set that I’ve explained here and in the third party thread beforehand, but of the core base of her support getting squeezed by the pandemic and it’s wider effects draining their livelihoods. A more exhausted and bankrupt group of supporters can’t chip in or do party work as well as what the elite class can pay with money and utilize already existing infrastructure—employer associations, lobbyists, the corporate media, even the government itself through setting the date separate from the rest of the election as a ploy to hope more transient and precarious people won’t show up to vote twice— to bring her down pound for pound.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on December 04, 2021, 02:26:33 PM
I can't stand that they are labeling it as a 'right-wing recall'. The recall has pulled from folks across the spectrum, including many progressives. Feels like a misstep in my mind and one that could backfire for the Sawant campaign as they essentially make the claim 'either you are with us or you are right-wing'.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on December 04, 2021, 02:28:00 PM
I can't stand that they are labeling it as a 'right-wing recall'. It has pulled from folks across the spectrum, including many progressives. Feels like a misstep in my mind and one that could backfire for the Sawant campaign as they essentially make the claim 'either you are with us or you are right-wing'.
Well the donors to the campaign and the rhetoric coming from the Washington Times does make it seem lopsided in that direction.

What this proves is that in recalls and in other elections, Democrats will accept the support of the progressives and socialists within and outside the party to help mainstream candidates, but in any situation outside of that then Democratic leadership would rather support republicans than support even progressive Democrats. This was evident in Buffalo, and it is evident in Seattle for the DA race and this recall.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Kamala’s side hoe on December 04, 2021, 04:55:06 PM


This is pretty good PR to lower-engagement voters on paper- exactly the kind of coalition a more left-wing candidate would want in a heavily under-40, progressive big-city environment.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on December 04, 2021, 09:09:50 PM


This is pretty good PR to lower-engagement voters on paper- exactly the kind of coalition a more left-wing candidate would want in a heavily under-40, progressive big-city environment.

What does "top donors" mean?  Everyone has a limit of $1,000.  Are there really that many CEOs in Seattle?  Or did the Sawant campaign just cherry-pick a few of the people who donated $1,000 (there are hundreds) so they can say that CEOs are some of the "top donors"?

They've been using this "top donors" language all over the place.  Makes it seem like it's just a few people funding the Recall.  There are hundreds upon hundreds of people who have donated the max amount of $1,000 -- all of those people are equally at the top of the donor roll.  And they come from a diverse array of professions.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on December 04, 2021, 09:43:48 PM
I think Sawant was able to successfully frame the 2019 election as a referendum on Amazon and big money (at least somewhat) and people who weren't big fans of her were willing to hold their nose and vote for her as a way of expressing discontent with the amount Amazon donated to the city council positions. I don't think this is going to work in her favor this time around, and the pro-Sawant crowd hasn't done themselves any favors with some of their more aggressive tactics. While calling it the "right-wing recall" may sway some people, I think people have had enough, and that she goes down by between 5 and 10%.
They were able to do so because it is the truth, the billionaires and other elite, but mainly the billionaires are the ones against her



This isn’t a matter of “tactics” dragging her down, indeed SAlt plays the game by an already biased rule set that I’ve explained here and in the third party thread beforehand, but of the core base of her support getting squeezed by the pandemic and it’s wider effects draining their livelihoods. A more exhausted and bankrupt group of supporters can’t chip in or do party work as well as what the elite class can pay with money and utilize already existing infrastructure—employer associations, lobbyists, the corporate media, even the government itself through setting the date separate from the rest of the election as a ploy to hope more transient and precarious people won’t show up to vote twice— to bring her down pound for pound.


Lol the tech worker probably makes more than retired people , real estate agents and many business owners


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on December 04, 2021, 11:50:01 PM
I think Sawant was able to successfully frame the 2019 election as a referendum on Amazon and big money (at least somewhat) and people who weren't big fans of her were willing to hold their nose and vote for her as a way of expressing discontent with the amount Amazon donated to the city council positions. I don't think this is going to work in her favor this time around, and the pro-Sawant crowd hasn't done themselves any favors with some of their more aggressive tactics. While calling it the "right-wing recall" may sway some people, I think people have had enough, and that she goes down by between 5 and 10%.
They were able to do so because it is the truth, the billionaires and other elite, but mainly the billionaires are the ones against her



This isn’t a matter of “tactics” dragging her down, indeed SAlt plays the game by an already biased rule set that I’ve explained here and in the third party thread beforehand, but of the core base of her support getting squeezed by the pandemic and it’s wider effects draining their livelihoods. A more exhausted and bankrupt group of supporters can’t chip in or do party work as well as what the elite class can pay with money and utilize already existing infrastructure—employer associations, lobbyists, the corporate media, even the government itself through setting the date separate from the rest of the election as a ploy to hope more transient and precarious people won’t show up to vote twice— to bring her down pound for pound.


Lol the tech worker probably makes more than retired people , real estate agents and many business owners
The term code monkey and crunch exists for a reason. This isn’t the 2000s, a significant amount of tech workers in our service-oriented economy don’t make middle class salaries anymore. And among those voting for Sawant, they skew towards the lower rungs of the payscale.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on December 05, 2021, 01:56:27 PM
I think Sawant was able to successfully frame the 2019 election as a referendum on Amazon and big money (at least somewhat) and people who weren't big fans of her were willing to hold their nose and vote for her as a way of expressing discontent with the amount Amazon donated to the city council positions. I don't think this is going to work in her favor this time around, and the pro-Sawant crowd hasn't done themselves any favors with some of their more aggressive tactics. While calling it the "right-wing recall" may sway some people, I think people have had enough, and that she goes down by between 5 and 10%.
They were able to do so because it is the truth, the billionaires and other elite, but mainly the billionaires are the ones against her



This isn’t a matter of “tactics” dragging her down, indeed SAlt plays the game by an already biased rule set that I’ve explained here and in the third party thread beforehand, but of the core base of her support getting squeezed by the pandemic and it’s wider effects draining their livelihoods. A more exhausted and bankrupt group of supporters can’t chip in or do party work as well as what the elite class can pay with money and utilize already existing infrastructure—employer associations, lobbyists, the corporate media, even the government itself through setting the date separate from the rest of the election as a ploy to hope more transient and precarious people won’t show up to vote twice— to bring her down pound for pound.


Lol the tech worker probably makes more than retired people , real estate agents and many business owners
The term code monkey and crunch exists for a reason. This isn’t the 2000s, a significant amount of tech workers in our service-oriented economy don’t make middle class salaries anymore. And among those voting for Sawant, they skew towards the lower rungs of the payscale.

The ones who live in Seattle almost all work for top-5 firms.  Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Facebook.  You can go aggregate her donor roll by individual employer if you want to prove me wrong.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on December 05, 2021, 09:58:24 PM
I think Sawant was able to successfully frame the 2019 election as a referendum on Amazon and big money (at least somewhat) and people who weren't big fans of her were willing to hold their nose and vote for her as a way of expressing discontent with the amount Amazon donated to the city council positions. I don't think this is going to work in her favor this time around, and the pro-Sawant crowd hasn't done themselves any favors with some of their more aggressive tactics. While calling it the "right-wing recall" may sway some people, I think people have had enough, and that she goes down by between 5 and 10%.
They were able to do so because it is the truth, the billionaires and other elite, but mainly the billionaires are the ones against her



This isn’t a matter of “tactics” dragging her down, indeed SAlt plays the game by an already biased rule set that I’ve explained here and in the third party thread beforehand, but of the core base of her support getting squeezed by the pandemic and it’s wider effects draining their livelihoods. A more exhausted and bankrupt group of supporters can’t chip in or do party work as well as what the elite class can pay with money and utilize already existing infrastructure—employer associations, lobbyists, the corporate media, even the government itself through setting the date separate from the rest of the election as a ploy to hope more transient and precarious people won’t show up to vote twice— to bring her down pound for pound.


Lol the tech worker probably makes more than retired people , real estate agents and many business owners
The term code monkey and crunch exists for a reason. This isn’t the 2000s, a significant amount of tech workers in our service-oriented economy don’t make middle class salaries anymore. And among those voting for Sawant, they skew towards the lower rungs of the payscale.

The ones who live in Seattle almost all work for top-5 firms.  Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Facebook.  You can go aggregate her donor roll by individual employer if you want to prove me wrong.
Working in a “top-5” firm does not mean one is payed well, or what their work is worth, for life in Seattle. Microsoft, Google, and Amazon in particular treat their lower-paygrade workers like dog••••, and the pay compared to video game coders ain’t that pretty either. That’s the nature of service work now.

Among those voting for Kshama Sawant, they’re on the lower end of the average.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on December 06, 2021, 06:28:58 PM
Lol you're 100% talking out of your ass.  Oh it's only the poor working-class techies supporting Sawant.  Once they reach senior or principal level they become recall supporters.  Come on man.

Go look up her top donors on LinkedIn.  It's not the poor working class proletariat.  It's rich tech workers who came here from California and think having a communist on the city council is quirky and cool.  The ones who actually live in Seattle, that is.  Most of her top donors are people who live thousands of miles away and couldn't find Capitol Hill on a map, like you.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on December 07, 2021, 12:36:26 PM
I think Sawant was able to successfully frame the 2019 election as a referendum on Amazon and big money (at least somewhat) and people who weren't big fans of her were willing to hold their nose and vote for her as a way of expressing discontent with the amount Amazon donated to the city council positions. I don't think this is going to work in her favor this time around, and the pro-Sawant crowd hasn't done themselves any favors with some of their more aggressive tactics. While calling it the "right-wing recall" may sway some people, I think people have had enough, and that she goes down by between 5 and 10%.
They were able to do so because it is the truth, the billionaires and other elite, but mainly the billionaires are the ones against her



This isn’t a matter of “tactics” dragging her down, indeed SAlt plays the game by an already biased rule set that I’ve explained here and in the third party thread beforehand, but of the core base of her support getting squeezed by the pandemic and it’s wider effects draining their livelihoods. A more exhausted and bankrupt group of supporters can’t chip in or do party work as well as what the elite class can pay with money and utilize already existing infrastructure—employer associations, lobbyists, the corporate media, even the government itself through setting the date separate from the rest of the election as a ploy to hope more transient and precarious people won’t show up to vote twice— to bring her down pound for pound.

I wasn't saying that it isn't true that Amazon poured tons of money into city council races in 2019, the point is that they did, and that Sawant was able to put the focus primarily on this, to get some voters who were lukewarm about her to support her. At this point, I don't believe that class is the driving factor in support for the recall. There are plenty of working class people here who are quite progressive, but want someone other than Sawant. I'm not saying that there isn't also big money behind recalling Sawant, but that doesn't mean that there aren't legitimate reasons to want a different progressive.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on December 07, 2021, 01:44:16 PM
I think Sawant was able to successfully frame the 2019 election as a referendum on Amazon and big money (at least somewhat) and people who weren't big fans of her were willing to hold their nose and vote for her as a way of expressing discontent with the amount Amazon donated to the city council positions. I don't think this is going to work in her favor this time around, and the pro-Sawant crowd hasn't done themselves any favors with some of their more aggressive tactics. While calling it the "right-wing recall" may sway some people, I think people have had enough, and that she goes down by between 5 and 10%.
They were able to do so because it is the truth, the billionaires and other elite, but mainly the billionaires are the ones against her



This isn’t a matter of “tactics” dragging her down, indeed SAlt plays the game by an already biased rule set that I’ve explained here and in the third party thread beforehand, but of the core base of her support getting squeezed by the pandemic and it’s wider effects draining their livelihoods. A more exhausted and bankrupt group of supporters can’t chip in or do party work as well as what the elite class can pay with money and utilize already existing infrastructure—employer associations, lobbyists, the corporate media, even the government itself through setting the date separate from the rest of the election as a ploy to hope more transient and precarious people won’t show up to vote twice— to bring her down pound for pound.

I wasn't saying that it isn't true that Amazon poured tons of money into city council races in 2019, the point is that they did, and that Sawant was able to put the focus primarily on this, to get some voters who were lukewarm about her to support her. At this point, I don't believe that class is the driving factor in support for the recall. There are plenty of working class people here who are quite progressive, but want someone other than Sawant. I'm not saying that there isn't also big money behind recalling Sawant, but that doesn't mean that there aren't legitimate reasons to want a different progressive.
Well certainly the money has been well spent in lying to the upper strata of temporarily embarrassed middle class people to vote Yes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 07, 2021, 01:51:34 PM
I fully expect Sawant to survive at this point.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on December 07, 2021, 02:50:23 PM
I fully expect Sawant to survive at this point.
One can hope


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 07, 2021, 11:05:28 PM
Yes leads in the recall election 53-47. I don't think that's enough.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on December 07, 2021, 11:19:07 PM
Yes leads in the recall election 53-47. I don't think that's enough.

Yeah it's not.  The results are gonna look pretty similar to her election against Orion.  She'll probably survive by 4-5 points.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on December 08, 2021, 01:48:50 AM
Yeah, she's probably fine. Honestly, I thought she'd struggle without an opponent.

Maybe Egan deserves a bit more credit? (Really wish Amazon had not pushed their way into that race).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on December 08, 2021, 02:03:22 AM
Though side note: apparently King County was able to count 32,129 ballots today. Meanwhile, turnout was apparently 34,753 by 6 PM, while the total for the 2019 election was 42,956.. Assuming similar total turnout to 2019 Kshama would need to win about 60% of the remaining vote? Seems both doable/likely to be close either way.

Any idea if we should expect more or fewer ballots than 2019?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on December 08, 2021, 02:41:13 AM
Though side note: apparently King County was able to count 32,129 ballots today. Meanwhile, turnout was apparently 34,753 by 6 PM, while the total for the 2019 election was 42,956.. Assuming similar total turnout to 2019 Kshama would need to win about 60% of the remaining vote? Seems both doable/likely to be close either way.

Any idea if we should expect more or fewer ballots than 2019?

Sawant spent the last six months telling us that special elections are a form of voter suppression, so unless she's an utterly shameless liar, you should expect fewer ballots than 2019.

In actuality I would expect basically the same number of ballots as the 2021 general.  Dr. RI Trustbuster would have that number as he seems to have aggregated the precinct-level data by district.  I don't have a map of precinct to district handy to recreate that number accurately.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on December 08, 2021, 03:32:02 AM
I think if Sawant wins I'm going to make some posters with actual historical facts and/or quotes about Lenin/Trotsky and put them up around the district.  Maybe I'll even copy the Socialist Alternative branding.  After all they brand themselves as a Marxist/Trotskyist organization (Sawant's victory-ish speech tonight featured "hell yeah I'm a Trotskyist") so they should be proud of their heritage.

We can start with the incident where general Pyotr Wrangel was trying to defend Crimea from the Bolsheviks, lost the battles, and attempted to basically evacuate all of Crimea.  Lenin and Trotsky promised everyone amnesty if they simply surrendered to the Red Army instead of running away or continuing to resist.  The people of Crimea thought that was a pretty good deal.  Afterwards, Sawant's heroes said "lol jk" and massacred tens of thousands of innocent civilians who had committed no crime other than living in an area where counter-revolutionary elements had briefly prevailed.

Maybe I'll also put up some posters of Lenin's famous Hanging Order where he literally just calls for random mass murders for the explicit purpose of spreading terror.

Quote from: Kshama Sawant's hero
Comrades! The insurrection of five kulak districts should be pitilessly suppressed. The interests of the whole revolution require this because 'the last decisive battle' with the kulaks is now underway everywhere. An example must be made.

Hang (absolutely hang, in full view of the people) no fewer than one hundred known kulaks, fat cats, bloodsuckers.
Publish their names.
Seize all grain from them.
Designate hostages - in accordance with yesterday's telegram.
Do it in such a fashion, that for hundreds of districts around the people see, tremble, know, shout: "the bloodsucking kulaks are being strangled and will be strangled".

Telegraph receipt and implementation. Yours, Lenin.

P.S. Find tougher people.

These people Sawant proudly worships, and models her ideology after, literally just came up with quotas of how many murders needed to be committed, and if you didn't commit enough murders, it meant you were a kulak or a class traitor and needed to be tortured and murdered yourself.  So people would just murder anyone they could loosely accuse of being a kulak or a cossack or a sympathizer or whatever, and Lenin and Trotsky were like, you're not killing enough innocent people you need to kill even more so we can strike more terror.  This is literally who Sawant constructed her entire identity around.

You want to know why there's such a renter/owner divide in D3?  Maybe it's because Sawant proudly bases her entire ideology on the hero worship of a man whose driving motive was the mass murder of anyone who owned property.

I swear to god, the people in this district think it's cool that she goes after landlords because hell yeah bro rent is too damn high.  Like do people really not know that one of the core attributes of Marxist/Trotskyite ideology was the persecution and murder of people who owned property, finally reaching its logical conclusion with Mao's decision to massacre all the Chinese landlords?  It's not even a "dog whistle", it's just her acting in accordance with a hateful and destructive ideology, with the thinnest possible veneer of non-ideological justification, and people are too ignorant to put two and two together so they just bite on that justification and then go around talking about her "standing up for renter's rights."  Yeah just like Mao stood up for renter's rights by killing 3 million Chinese landlords?  Someone should ask her in a debate whether she's willing to condemn the Land Reform Movement -- $100 says she won't.

It's like if someone proudly identified with Imperial Japan, (but a Showa Imperialist, not one of those Tojo people, please don't put Tojo's words in our mouth) and constantly went after Chinese people, ostensibly for owning too much property or driving rental values up with foreign money, and people were like "hell yeah the rent is too damn high", just too ignorant of history to recognize the ideological drive behind someone who identifies with Showa trying to persecute the Chinese.  And then they'd constantly talk about "subhuman Chinese dogs corrupting our culture and people" and people would say, like, oh yeah I wish she was nicer and wasn't so intense, but at the end of the day she fights for what she believes and I respect that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on December 08, 2021, 05:51:37 AM
Keep fighting the good fight against the the unbearing tide of vapid pop communism that is sadly becoming too widespread.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Continential on December 08, 2021, 06:15:14 AM
I think if Sawant wins I'm going to make some posters with actual historical facts and/or quotes about Lenin/Trotsky and put them up around the district.  Maybe I'll even copy the Socialist Alternative branding.  After all they brand themselves as a Marxist/Trotskyist organization (Sawant's victory-ish speech tonight featured "hell yeah I'm a Trotskyist") so they should be proud of their heritage.
Hopefully your effort succeeds as more people should know about how awful Trots are.

Presuming she wins, could she run for the State House or will she be only in Seattle municipal politics?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Not Me, Us on December 08, 2021, 10:21:28 AM
So Sawant actually might survive? Great news if that actually comes to pass. And GMac, I get that you hate Sawant, but be reasonable. Nobody is going to be massacring landlords, and war crimes committed by the Soviet red fascists are entirely irrelevant to this race. Also, f**k landlords, they’re the scum of the earth, and I only wish more politicians would take them to task like Sawant.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on December 08, 2021, 11:36:28 AM
So Sawant actually might survive? Great news if that actually comes to pass. And GMac, I get that you hate Sawant, but be reasonable. Nobody is going to be massacring landlords, and war crimes committed by the Soviet red fascists are entirely irrelevant to this race. Also, f**k landlords, they’re the scum of the earth, and I only wish more politicians would take them to task like Sawant.

Right, I'm not saying she's about to start dekulakizing Capitol Hill (as a property owner who vocally hates her, I'd be first to go).  But I think it's utterly disgusting that people continue to vote for someone who has these hateful, violent views, even though she doesn't have the capability to actually act on them.

I'm Jewish, and if D3 elected a Nazi who thinks the Holocaust was a good thing as our representative, I wouldn't be afraid either.  I'd just be completely disgusted.  Not just in the Nazi but in all the people who voted for them.

Also landlords are just people.  Deciding to rent your property doesn't make you an evil monster who deserves persecution.  Sawant has successfully driven a lot of small landlords out of D3 and now all the local apartment buildings are owned by big corporations who can afford to legally defend themselves against her, and that just makes things more expensive and impersonal for renters.  But those same dumb renters keep voting for Sawant because she's "fighting for them" by making things worse for them.  The end goal is rent control, after which nobody will ever be able to rent in D3 ever again.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on December 08, 2021, 11:38:43 AM
I think if Sawant wins I'm going to make some posters with actual historical facts and/or quotes about Lenin/Trotsky and put them up around the district.  Maybe I'll even copy the Socialist Alternative branding.  After all they brand themselves as a Marxist/Trotskyist organization (Sawant's victory-ish speech tonight featured "hell yeah I'm a Trotskyist") so they should be proud of their heritage.
Hopefully your effort succeeds as more people should know about how awful Trots are.

Presuming she wins, could she run for the State House or will she be only in Seattle municipal politics?

Her approval rating city-wide is 20%.  She would get destroyed in any race outside of D3.  Even in the most left-wing constituency in the country she's barely clinging on.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crane on December 08, 2021, 01:41:30 PM
Lol


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: StateBoiler on December 08, 2021, 01:42:59 PM
The Stranger's headline is funny.

"We Don't F#cking Know what's going to Happen, but it wasn't a Blowout"


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 08, 2021, 02:46:47 PM
Though side note: apparently King County was able to count 32,129 ballots today. Meanwhile, turnout was apparently 34,753 by 6 PM, while the total for the 2019 election was 42,956.. Assuming similar total turnout to 2019 Kshama would need to win about 60% of the remaining vote? Seems both doable/likely to be close either way.

Any idea if we should expect more or fewer ballots than 2019?

Sawant spent the last six months telling us that special elections are a form of voter suppression, so unless she's an utterly shameless liar, you should expect fewer ballots than 2019.

In actuality I would expect basically the same number of ballots as the 2021 general.  Dr. RI Trustbuster would have that number as he seems to have aggregated the precinct-level data by district.  I don't have a map of precinct to district handy to recreate that number accurately.

The 2021 mayoral race saw 41,329 votes cast from D3.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on December 08, 2021, 04:37:40 PM
Again, a lot of y’all underestimated how entrenched and effective the SAlt machine is in Seattle. It was obvious a blowout was impossible from the start, but I wouldn’t be too sure she’ll get the necessary votes to cling on.

There’s still too much hysteria over a candidate whose tendency became normie social democrats in the 1970s though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 08, 2021, 07:09:43 PM
Yes's lead down to 50.3-49.7 with 39,274 ballots counted.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on December 08, 2021, 07:41:42 PM
Again, a lot of y’all underestimated how entrenched and effective the SAlt machine is in Seattle. It was obvious a blowout was impossible from the start, but I wouldn’t be too sure she’ll get the necessary votes to cling on.

There’s still too much hysteria over a candidate whose tendency became normie social democrats in the 1970s though.

It's not entrenched in Seattle -- SocAlt is non-competitive anywhere else in the city.  It's literally just in D3, and they're a joke 99% of the time, they're only a machine during her own elections, when they fly in a bunch of people from out of state to pretend to be Seattle residents and canvass the block.  It's a pretty small district so it only takes a couple dozen people to have a huge impact.

If she was actually powerful she would've been able to get her allies NTK/Gonzalez/Oliver elected.  Or maybe she would have been able to pass substantial legislation during her tenure.  Neither is true.  She is a do-nothing gadfly whose only talent is being able to get herself re-elected with the aid of a national organization that zeroes in on a very small geographic area once every two years.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on December 08, 2021, 07:56:10 PM
“We Have Not Backed Down”: Kshama Sawant Speaks At Solidarity Campaign Election Night Party (https://www.socialistalternative.org/2021/12/08/we-have-not-backed-down-kshama-sawant-speaks-at-solidarity-campaign-election-night-party/)
Kshama on the excellent work of the volunteers and grassroots campaigning
Quote
What we do know for certain is that working people and young people have roundly rejected this racist, right-wing, big-business-backed attack. We know that from our tens of thousands of conversations in the last weeks in this district and the voter data we have systematically collected through that. We have the highest support ever based on those discussions.

The massive support of working people and young people for our campaign is also reflected in our record number of volunteers, over 1,500, and our record numbers of donors. We broke multiple records – our own records in fact from past campaigns. We had more donors, by a country mile, than any Seattle election ever, with over 11,500 individual donors. We had more in-district donors than any campaign in Seattle history, with over 5,000 (nearly triple the number from the right-wing Recall campaign). We raised more money, without taking a dime in corporate cash, than any city council campaign in Seattle history, raising over 1 million and 10 thousand dollars.

On the hypocrisy of the Seattle judicial system
Quote
This 15-month long mockery of democracy has reminded us the difficulty of having a genuinely democratic society under the billionaire’s system. We saw the utter hypocrisy of how this thoroughly undemocratic recall system in Washington was applied by the capitalist courts. The recall against Amazon’s Mayor, Jenny Durkan, Teargas Jenny, was unanimously thrown out by the state supreme court judges, despite the weapons used by the police under her watch against peaceful protestors, myself included. Despite the 18,000 complaints by peaceful protestors.

Also in utter hypocrisy, the court rejected the recall effort against the covid-denying Sheriff of Thurston County, though he bluntly refused to follow the mask mandate.

It is telling and predictable that only the recall against socialist politics was allowed to go forward. Not only did it go forward but it received the enthusiastic stamp of approval from the supreme court with language on the ballot that dishonestly implied that I had broken the law. Even though I have not and even though the courts do not judge the truth of charges in recall cases.

On the failure of Nikita Oliver and Lorena Gonzalez
Quote
Because while corporate PACs backed “law and order” candidates, the progressive Democrats overwhelmingly failed to campaign on working-class issues. Worst was Lorena Gonzalez. But even Nikkita Oliver never campaigned in a real way for rent control. They never campaigned to expand the Amazon Tax for affordable housing. Instead, Oliver actually removed rent control from their website platform, and they backed away from rent control in a high-profile debate.

Why did the other Democrats like Lorena Gonzalez not offer anything to the working class – or fight on any working class demands? Why did they allow the election to be framed and defined by the right-wing backlash against Black Lives matter – by a right-wing “law and order” message? Why did they not call out the big business backing of their opponents, the $2 million in corporate money being used to buy those elections?

The blowout in Gonzalez’s election was because she never brought up any fighting demands – she campaigned on the defensive throughout – unwilling to point out that her opponent was the favored candidate of big business because she herself did not want to antagonize big business.

This is very consistent to a similar opinion article they had critiquing the progressives and DSA for raising the police budget—hypocritical given that they are the major forces in the city calling for the abolishment of the police—and moderating their tone.

An important takeaway from this saga is that Kshama Sawant is over-performing even with all this pressure entirely due to their consistent messaging and actually passing meaningful policies. Taking a stand is worth so much politically, and moderating your voice is in most cases harmful in most divisive elections dependent on turning out the base.

Even if Sawant loses, this was an entirely respectable showing and is a good stepping point to run for the election in her district again if she loses. The opposition will put up a some capitalist like last time or a corporate PAC creature and lose again.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on December 08, 2021, 08:33:03 PM
lol @ the hypocrisy of the judicial system.  The difference is that she actually did break the law.  Getting 18,000 "peaceful protesters" to complain about tear gas being used against them doesn't make using tear gas illegal.

BTW those are the same peaceful protesters who attacked the police precinct and tried to burn it down, locked the doors with people inside to try and kill them, and then created a violent law-free zone that ended in the deaths of two young black boys and several other assaults and violent crimes.

They weren't peaceful protesters, they were violent dickheads and they should've been tear gassed harder.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on December 08, 2021, 09:19:16 PM
lol @ the hypocrisy of the judicial system.  The difference is that she actually did break the law.  Getting 18,000 "peaceful protesters" to complain about tear gas being used against them doesn't make using tear gas illegal.

BTW those are the same peaceful protesters who attacked the police precinct and tried to burn it down, locked the doors with people inside to try and kill them, and then created a violent law-free zone that ended in the deaths of two young black boys and several other assaults and violent crimes.

They weren't peaceful protesters, they were violent dickheads and they should've been tear gassed harder.
Do you have proof that the organizers in the city hall protests were the same people doing CHAZ and threatening to burn stuff down?

Lying over and over again only works on low-information voters, if there’s one thing that can be commemorated here by SAlt is through their propagation of their newsletter in union halls and on the streets informing people of the truth :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: StateBoiler on December 08, 2021, 10:10:04 PM
So reading up on the grassroots voting centers setup ad hoc all around where a person can help you print your ballot that second and submit - alongside Byron Brown's stamps distributed for write-in, pretty innovative political idea - but how do you enforce the state's ban on electioneering at voting centers in such a place?

Seattle Times update tonight:

Quote
The effort to recall Seattle City Councilmember Kshama Sawant lost significant ground in Wednesday’s ballot count, with 50.3% of voters agreeing to remove her from office, compared to 53% of the votes counted on Tuesday.

With Wednesday’s count, Sawant has narrowed the difference to only 246 votes, out of the 39,274 counted so far. She received 62% of the votes counted on Wednesday.

King County Elections Chief of Staff Kendall Hodson said Wednesday the county estimates there are about 1,200 ballots left to be counted on Thursday and an additional 656 ballots with signature challenges that could be resolved and added to the count as late as Dec. 16, putting the overall turnout at just over 53%.

So to overturn the 246 vote deficit from just the 1200, would require Sawant winning about 60% of them.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on December 08, 2021, 11:56:31 PM
This is going to be a nail-biter, but the trend going on today makes me hopeful.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on December 09, 2021, 12:37:45 AM
Looks like Sawant will survive, probably by about 2 points or so. I guess the argument that recalls are unnecessary really is quite effective.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on December 09, 2021, 02:41:02 AM
Looks like Sawant will survive, probably by about 2 points or so. I guess the argument that recalls are unnecessary really is quite effective.

There's no way it's anywhere close to a 2% victory.  The margin is 250 votes now and that's only 0.6% in the recall's favor.  She would need to win 1,000 of the 1,200 remaining votes to get a 2% margin.

I suspect the "final" number we get tomorrow will be within about 40-50 votes either way.  She could get 58% and lose by 40.  She could get 62% and win by 40.  Even if she wins the remaining vote 2-1 she'll only have a 100 vote margin of victory (winning 50.1% to 49.9% in that very optimistic scenario for her).

The real story here is that there are 600 voters who have signature verification issues, so the next week is going to be a mad sprint by both campaigns to get as many friendly voters to verify their signatures as possible.  Then whoever loses will issue a fat stack of residency challenges to try and disqualify anyone from the opposing camp who didn't live in D3 (far more likely among Sawant voters, who were plucked off the street and handed print-out ballots) and we're going to have the losing campaign paying for a recount as well.

It's so close that we ultimately won't know who won for weeks.  The odds of one side pulling it out may become less and less likely depending on how the margin changes, but we can't be sure.  The only thing that's certain is that if Sawant wins by 40 votes she'll act like she won by 40% and PSOL will absolutely eat it up.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on December 09, 2021, 02:49:23 AM
Alternatively, there's a theory going around that most of the Sawant voters put their ballots in drop boxes, while most of the Recall voters mailed in their ballots, and since all the drop box votes were counted today (thus the 62% Sawant skew) the ones tomorrow will be 100% mail-in, and thus much less favorable to Sawant.

In the past, Sawant has won late mail-ins as well.  But there's been a major demographic divide between mail-ins and drop-boxes in this election that could change that.

So it's entirely possible that the ballots tomorrow will simply mirror the mail-ins that have come before, and Sawant will only win 50% or even less of them, resulting in a 3-400 vote loss, which will make the legal challenges mostly futile.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on December 09, 2021, 04:21:32 AM
Looks like Sawant will survive, probably by about 2 points or so. I guess the argument that recalls are unnecessary really is quite effective.
Recalls are necessary to make sure the majority of the peoples will is enacted. The thing is that both recalls are primarily supported by a small group of petty elites who are fuming at change. One, in California, enjoyed Democrats being United with the left to reject such a thing with ample resources at hand, while the other did not and is thus more competitive.

The only thing that's certain is that if Sawant wins by 40 votes she'll act like she won by 40% and PSOL will absolutely eat it up.—GMAC

Oh I am actually happy right now, and will be net happier given that both people that think like me see the larger picture. A socialist candidate did the best on a recall in US history and did so through ingenuity and (incomplete) base building. I probably would be pessimistic, but the cushion of possibly three likeminded candidates winning in Minneapolis makes this electoral season a good one.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crane on December 09, 2021, 10:22:32 AM
Looks like Sawant will survive, probably by about 2 points or so. I guess the argument that recalls are unnecessary really is quite effective.
Recalls are necessary to make sure the majority of the peoples will is enacted. The thing is that both recalls are primarily supported by a small group of petty elites who are fuming at change. One, in California, enjoyed Democrats being United with the left to reject such a thing with ample resources at hand, while the other did not and is thus more competitive.

The only thing that's certain is that if Sawant wins by 40 votes she'll act like she won by 40% and PSOL will absolutely eat it up.—GMAC

Oh I am actually happy right now, and will be net happier given that both people that think like me see the larger picture. A socialist candidate did the best on a recall in US history and did so through ingenuity and (incomplete) base building. I probably would be pessimistic, but the cushion of possibly three likeminded candidates winning in Minneapolis makes this electoral season a good one.

Yeah, other than the Republicans winning in Buffalo and Seattle City Attorney's, this has been a pretty decent season for progressives, especially in city level races.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on December 09, 2021, 01:24:57 PM
Looks like Sawant will survive, probably by about 2 points or so. I guess the argument that recalls are unnecessary really is quite effective.

There's no way it's anywhere close to a 2% victory.  The margin is 250 votes now and that's only 0.6% in the recall's favor.  She would need to win 1,000 of the 1,200 remaining votes to get a 2% margin.

I suspect the "final" number we get tomorrow will be within about 40-50 votes either way.  She could get 58% and lose by 40.  She could get 62% and win by 40.  Even if she wins the remaining vote 2-1 she'll only have a 100 vote margin of victory (winning 50.1% to 49.9% in that very optimistic scenario for her).

The real story here is that there are 600 voters who have signature verification issues, so the next week is going to be a mad sprint by both campaigns to get as many friendly voters to verify their signatures as possible.  Then whoever loses will issue a fat stack of residency challenges to try and disqualify anyone from the opposing camp who didn't live in D3 (far more likely among Sawant voters, who were plucked off the street and handed print-out ballots) and we're going to have the losing campaign paying for a recount as well.

It's so close that we ultimately won't know who won for weeks.  The odds of one side pulling it out may become less and less likely depending on how the margin changes, but we can't be sure.  The only thing that's certain is that if Sawant wins by 40 votes she'll act like she won by 40% and PSOL will absolutely eat it up.

I thought that there were closer to 2,000 total ballots left to be counted, including the ones with signature challenges? Either way, I still expect the later ballots to be Sawant-friendly, though it's not impossible that they aren't.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 09, 2021, 06:58:21 PM
No takes the lead, 50.3-49.7 with 40,629 ballots counted.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on December 09, 2021, 07:00:50 PM
Yeah, looks like this is over.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on December 09, 2021, 07:03:34 PM
If Sawant is recalled, can she legally run for her position for the special election?

It really isn’t.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on December 09, 2021, 09:25:16 PM
If Sawant is recalled, can she legally run for her position for the special election?

It really isn’t.

I can’t imagine the remaining ballots not favoring Sawant or breaking roughly even.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 09, 2021, 09:45:46 PM
Sawant has successfully driven a lot of small landlords out of D3 and now all the local apartment buildings are owned by big corporations who can afford to legally defend themselves against her, and that just makes things more expensive and impersonal for renters.

I am not a communist and I have no particular issue with the rest of what you posted, but is this really true? When it comes to renting, as with most economic transactions in my life, I'd rather deal with a large corporation that has established legal policies than with a small proprietor for whom things are personal.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on December 09, 2021, 10:18:18 PM
Sawant has successfully driven a lot of small landlords out of D3 and now all the local apartment buildings are owned by big corporations who can afford to legally defend themselves against her, and that just makes things more expensive and impersonal for renters.

I am not a communist and I have no particular issue with the rest of what you posted, but is this really true? When it comes to renting, as with most economic transactions in my life, I'd rather deal with a large corporation that has established legal policies than with a small proprietor for whom things are personal.
It definitely distances things from how relations with tenants at times go (https://news.yahoo.com/landlords-soliciting-sex-exchange-rent-214103708.html)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on December 09, 2021, 10:55:46 PM
Sawant has successfully driven a lot of small landlords out of D3 and now all the local apartment buildings are owned by big corporations who can afford to legally defend themselves against her, and that just makes things more expensive and impersonal for renters.

I am not a communist and I have no particular issue with the rest of what you posted, but is this really true? When it comes to renting, as with most economic transactions in my life, I'd rather deal with a large corporation that has established legal policies than with a small proprietor for whom things are personal.

I'm well-off and when I rented I always went with a large corporation because they knew what they were doing and had a solid reputation.  Basically, I knew what I was getting, and knew there would be a pretty high floor for the experience, and I was willing to pay a premium for that.

But Sawant isn't representing me, supposedly.  She claims to be representing the poor people (the "working class" -- not including people who make a lot of money working, like me) who are stuck renting more run-down places with fewer amenities and and less-experienced or less-professional management.  Obviously almost all those places are run by local landlords who are going out on their own rather than teaming up with some big megacorporation that will run their property for them.

In practice, here in D3, what this looks like is corporations handling the management of all the fancy new six-story glass "luxury apartments" (https://www.apartments.com/chloe-on-union-seattle-wa/dqwtp9k/), which are around $2,000 a month for a 1BR.  But there are also still plenty of ancient three-story buildings (https://www.apartments.com/bravo-apartments-seattle-wa/v5nb1cd/), built pre-WW2 (and likely pre-WW1).  They're drafty, made of thin wood and plaster, you can hear everything everyone else is doing, the appliances are all decades out of date and break down all the time, and there's certainly no amenities.  No firepit on the roof.  But you can live in one of those for more like $1,300 a month.  So your Amazon employees live in the "luxury" apartments with the rooftop firepits, and your Starbucks baristas and artists live in the 19th-century apartments with matchlight ovens, and that's the way things are.

But when Sawant keeps making things worse and worse for the small landlords who manage those WW1-era buildings, they eventually decide, screw this, I don't have to deal with this.  They sell their WW1-era building to a developer, the developer tears it down and builds a new six-story glass luxury apartment building on the parcel.  Now there's more housing for Amazon employees and less housing for Starbucks baristas.  And with less supply of the WW1-era buildings, but the same demand, prices go up.  So those Starbucks baristas get angry at landlords for raising prices, and vote for Sawant, who promises to fight for them by antagonizing those landlords, thus driving more of them out and further shrinking the supply of housing for her constituency.

It's a vicious cycle, and one that's completely unnecessary.  A competent city councilmember could solve this problem, maybe by creating grants to restore some old properties or make improvements so they're more livable and the landlords don't have to keep raising rent to pay for new boilers and repairs to the centuries-old architecture.  But the only language Sawant understands is animosity, so she just attacks and demonizes them and introduces policies to make their lives harder.  And of course it's only the small landlords she goes after, since she can bully Grandpa Tom renting his old building out to six artists, she can't bully the big corporations with their professional legal outfits.

So how do you solve this problem?  Sawant's solution is rent control.  Just make it impossible for landlords to raise rents.  Of course this will never actually pass (there's a statewide prohibition on rent control ffs) but if it did, supply would immediately shrink to 0 because nobody would want to become a small-time landlord in Seattle anymore, and landlords would immediately search for any loophole available to evict their tenants and bail on their properties.  But the reality of this doesn't matter because Sawant has no intention of actually passing rent control -- it's just a wedge issue she can use to get re-elected again and again, which is her sole motivation.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: gerritcole on December 09, 2021, 11:25:16 PM
Sawant should primary cantwell


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crane on December 10, 2021, 09:19:15 AM
Sawant has successfully driven a lot of small landlords out of D3 and now all the local apartment buildings are owned by big corporations who can afford to legally defend themselves against her, and that just makes things more expensive and impersonal for renters.

I am not a communist and I have no particular issue with the rest of what you posted, but is this really true? When it comes to renting, as with most economic transactions in my life, I'd rather deal with a large corporation that has established legal policies than with a small proprietor for whom things are personal.

I'm well-off and when I rented I always went with a large corporation because they knew what they were doing and had a solid reputation.  Basically, I knew what I was getting, and knew there would be a pretty high floor for the experience, and I was willing to pay a premium for that.

But Sawant isn't representing me, supposedly.  She claims to be representing the poor people (the "working class" -- not including people who make a lot of money working, like me) who are stuck renting more run-down places with fewer amenities and and less-experienced or less-professional management.  Obviously almost all those places are run by local landlords who are going out on their own rather than teaming up with some big megacorporation that will run their property for them.

In practice, here in D3, what this looks like is corporations handling the management of all the fancy new six-story glass "luxury apartments" (https://www.apartments.com/chloe-on-union-seattle-wa/dqwtp9k/), which are around $2,000 a month for a 1BR.  But there are also still plenty of ancient three-story buildings (https://www.apartments.com/bravo-apartments-seattle-wa/v5nb1cd/), built pre-WW2 (and likely pre-WW1).  They're drafty, made of thin wood and plaster, you can hear everything everyone else is doing, the appliances are all decades out of date and break down all the time, and there's certainly no amenities.  No firepit on the roof.  But you can live in one of those for more like $1,300 a month.  So your Amazon employees live in the "luxury" apartments with the rooftop firepits, and your Starbucks baristas and artists live in the 19th-century apartments with matchlight ovens, and that's the way things are.

But when Sawant keeps making things worse and worse for the small landlords who manage those WW1-era buildings, they eventually decide, screw this, I don't have to deal with this.  They sell their WW1-era building to a developer, the developer tears it down and builds a new six-story glass luxury apartment building on the parcel.  Now there's more housing for Amazon employees and less housing for Starbucks baristas.  And with less supply of the WW1-era buildings, but the same demand, prices go up.  So those Starbucks baristas get angry at landlords for raising prices, and vote for Sawant, who promises to fight for them by antagonizing those landlords, thus driving more of them out and further shrinking the supply of housing for her constituency.

It's a vicious cycle, and one that's completely unnecessary.  A competent city councilmember could solve this problem, maybe by creating grants to restore some old properties or make improvements so they're more livable and the landlords don't have to keep raising rent to pay for new boilers and repairs to the centuries-old architecture.  But the only language Sawant understands is animosity, so she just attacks and demonizes them and introduces policies to make their lives harder.  And of course it's only the small landlords she goes after, since she can bully Grandpa Tom renting his old building out to six artists, she can't bully the big corporations with their professional legal outfits.

So how do you solve this problem?  Sawant's solution is rent control.  Just make it impossible for landlords to raise rents.  Of course this will never actually pass (there's a statewide prohibition on rent control ffs) but if it did, supply would immediately shrink to 0 because nobody would want to become a small-time landlord in Seattle anymore, and landlords would immediately search for any loophole available to evict their tenants and bail on their properties.  But the reality of this doesn't matter because Sawant has no intention of actually passing rent control -- it's just a wedge issue she can use to get re-elected again and again, which is her sole motivation.

You can just write "I do not understand housing"


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on December 10, 2021, 10:46:50 AM
Sawant has successfully driven a lot of small landlords out of D3 and now all the local apartment buildings are owned by big corporations who can afford to legally defend themselves against her, and that just makes things more expensive and impersonal for renters.

I am not a communist and I have no particular issue with the rest of what you posted, but is this really true? When it comes to renting, as with most economic transactions in my life, I'd rather deal with a large corporation that has established legal policies than with a small proprietor for whom things are personal.

I'm well-off and when I rented I always went with a large corporation because they knew what they were doing and had a solid reputation.  Basically, I knew what I was getting, and knew there would be a pretty high floor for the experience, and I was willing to pay a premium for that.

But Sawant isn't representing me, supposedly.  She claims to be representing the poor people (the "working class" -- not including people who make a lot of money working, like me) who are stuck renting more run-down places with fewer amenities and and less-experienced or less-professional management.  Obviously almost all those places are run by local landlords who are going out on their own rather than teaming up with some big megacorporation that will run their property for them.

In practice, here in D3, what this looks like is corporations handling the management of all the fancy new six-story glass "luxury apartments" (https://www.apartments.com/chloe-on-union-seattle-wa/dqwtp9k/), which are around $2,000 a month for a 1BR.  But there are also still plenty of ancient three-story buildings (https://www.apartments.com/bravo-apartments-seattle-wa/v5nb1cd/), built pre-WW2 (and likely pre-WW1).  They're drafty, made of thin wood and plaster, you can hear everything everyone else is doing, the appliances are all decades out of date and break down all the time, and there's certainly no amenities.  No firepit on the roof.  But you can live in one of those for more like $1,300 a month.  So your Amazon employees live in the "luxury" apartments with the rooftop firepits, and your Starbucks baristas and artists live in the 19th-century apartments with matchlight ovens, and that's the way things are.

But when Sawant keeps making things worse and worse for the small landlords who manage those WW1-era buildings, they eventually decide, screw this, I don't have to deal with this.  They sell their WW1-era building to a developer, the developer tears it down and builds a new six-story glass luxury apartment building on the parcel.  Now there's more housing for Amazon employees and less housing for Starbucks baristas.  And with less supply of the WW1-era buildings, but the same demand, prices go up.  So those Starbucks baristas get angry at landlords for raising prices, and vote for Sawant, who promises to fight for them by antagonizing those landlords, thus driving more of them out and further shrinking the supply of housing for her constituency.

It's a vicious cycle, and one that's completely unnecessary.  A competent city councilmember could solve this problem, maybe by creating grants to restore some old properties or make improvements so they're more livable and the landlords don't have to keep raising rent to pay for new boilers and repairs to the centuries-old architecture.  But the only language Sawant understands is animosity, so she just attacks and demonizes them and introduces policies to make their lives harder.  And of course it's only the small landlords she goes after, since she can bully Grandpa Tom renting his old building out to six artists, she can't bully the big corporations with their professional legal outfits.

So how do you solve this problem?  Sawant's solution is rent control.  Just make it impossible for landlords to raise rents.  Of course this will never actually pass (there's a statewide prohibition on rent control ffs) but if it did, supply would immediately shrink to 0 because nobody would want to become a small-time landlord in Seattle anymore, and landlords would immediately search for any loophole available to evict their tenants and bail on their properties.  But the reality of this doesn't matter because Sawant has no intention of actually passing rent control -- it's just a wedge issue she can use to get re-elected again and again, which is her sole motivation.

You can just write "I do not understand housing"

Socialists and those on the left also don't seem to understand housing. If you have a city there are X amount of apartments and Y amount of people who wants to stay in the city where Y>X then there's going to have to be some method of filtering out people unless you increase the amount of apartments which a lot of left-wing groups resist.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on December 10, 2021, 10:56:15 AM
Here’s how the recall can still win


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crane on December 10, 2021, 12:24:23 PM
Sawant has successfully driven a lot of small landlords out of D3 and now all the local apartment buildings are owned by big corporations who can afford to legally defend themselves against her, and that just makes things more expensive and impersonal for renters.

I am not a communist and I have no particular issue with the rest of what you posted, but is this really true? When it comes to renting, as with most economic transactions in my life, I'd rather deal with a large corporation that has established legal policies than with a small proprietor for whom things are personal.


You can just write "I do not understand housing"



Wow, he reported me using the least offensive language in existence to describe his selfish and revolting views. So much for that ignore button.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on December 10, 2021, 11:46:32 PM
Both Sawant and the recall figureheads says it’s over, it’s over

SAlt will run as their own. What I suspect is that after 2023 they’ll have her run for state senate/house and then statewide.

Honestly, Sawant would make a good VP for 2028. The question becomes VP for whom.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Calthrina950 on December 11, 2021, 12:07:04 AM
Both Sawant and the recall figureheads says it’s over, it’s over

SAlt will run as their own. What I suspect is that after 2023 they’ll have her run for state senate/house and then statewide.

Honestly, Sawant would make a good VP for 2028. The question becomes VP for whom.

Obviously, you're a Sawant supporter, but why has she been so controversial and faced so many challenges? I know virtually nothing about her.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on December 11, 2021, 12:19:37 AM
Both Sawant and the recall figureheads says it’s over, it’s over

SAlt will run as their own. What I suspect is that after 2023 they’ll have her run for state senate/house and then statewide.

Honestly, Sawant would make a good VP for 2028. The question becomes VP for whom.

Obviously, you're a Sawant supporter, but why has she been so controversial and faced so many challenges? I know virtually nothing about her.
It’s a wild ride. Start from like 6 pages ago and move onwards.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on December 11, 2021, 11:30:17 AM
Both Sawant and the recall figureheads says it’s over, it’s over

SAlt will run as their own. What I suspect is that after 2023 they’ll have her run for state senate/house and then statewide.

Honestly, Sawant would make a good VP for 2028. The question becomes VP for whom.

Obviously, you're a Sawant supporter, but why has she been so controversial and faced so many challenges? I know virtually nothing about her.

She's just a really, really, really bad person in virtually every way a person can be bad.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on December 11, 2021, 01:23:43 PM
This district literally voted for NTK, correct? Not surprising this failed


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Kamala’s side hoe on December 11, 2021, 01:24:12 PM
Both Sawant and the recall figureheads says it’s over, it’s over

SAlt will run as their own. What I suspect is that after 2023 they’ll have her run for state senate/house and then statewide.

Honestly, Sawant would make a good VP for 2028. The question becomes VP for whom.

Obviously, you're a Sawant supporter, but why has she been so controversial and faced so many challenges? I know virtually nothing about her.

According to a "joint statement from the Jewish, Black, and Asian communities" (of Seattle proper), which was previously posted here by GenMac, she has:

  • regularly traded in rhetoric giving rise in anti-Semitism, resulting in violence directed at Jewish residents
  • sought to hijack the efforts of BLM organizers to promote her own political agenda, which has been well-documented by local news coverage
  • refused to advocate for East/Southeast Asian small business owners by falsely equating poverty with crime
  • approrpriated her own South Asian identity for political gain without adequately representing her AAPI constituents
  • admitted to using city resources to support a ballot initiative, without complying with a public disclosure requirement related to this support
  • disobeyed a state order and endangered public workers by admitting hundreds of people into City Hall on June 9th, 2020



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on December 11, 2021, 03:08:47 PM
Kshama Sawant’s victory speech on her (probable) victory (https://www.socialistalternative.org/2021/12/10/the-wealthy-took-their-best-shot-at-us-and-we-beat-them-again-kshama-sawant-speaks-at-solidarity-campaign-press-conference/)

Quote


How did we do this? We won because we did not back down.

We did not back down in our socialist City Council office. Instead we went on the offensive, and we won some of the most crucial victories for renters’ rights this year.

We did not back down in fighting for workers – we put our resources and our full commitment at the disposal of the courageous rank-and-file leadership of the Pacific Northwest Carpenters’ union. We did this even though their union’s leadership shamefully did not want to fight, and publicly attacked our Council office, falsely accusing us of interference.

If standing with union workers in their efforts to fight the bosses is interference, then I plead guilty. I am an interferer.

There are good and courageous labor leaders also, and we need to work alongside them. Workers have no choice but to rebuild a fighting labor movement, and if some conservative trade union leaders want to stand in the way, we can’t let that stop us.



And we should be clear, the voter suppression had a real effect. In 2019, we also had a strong get out the vote campaign – though not as strong as this time – and there was 60% turnout in our district. This time, it is only 53%. Had it not been for blatant voter suppression, we would have won by a far larger margin. It would not even have been close.

But even this time, in the pouring rain of December and an unprecedented holiday election, the outcome of this vote was NOT REMOTELY close in terms of the votes of working-class people, people of color, and young people. In all the precincts with clear majorities of working people, we have won by massive margins. Including this precinct. Majorities of 70 percent, 80 percent, and higher.

This has been true in every election. Working people by enormous margins support our socialist politics.

As seen in the November elections, it was primarily the working class and ethnically diverse districts that lent support for the grand coalition. The notion that community leaders did not support Sawant and that her time in office wasn’t well-received or substantial in their eyes along with in action is disproven beyond a reasonable doubt. Looking back, the carpenter’s strike should have been seen as a sign of flexing against the city elite that the Left was not going to cave in this election.

None of the above is surprising given the entrenched links SAlt has in Seattle; evident by the huge endorsement list, work across labor unions in Seattle, and uptick in support in Seattle since 2016. If you listened to the rentier capitalists and labor aristocrats who took up all the oxygen in this thread, you would have expected a blowout based on disconnection from reality. However, from the election results and momentum going into this race, it was obvious it would have been close due to lower turnout.

In 2023 the master chef won’t have to be conservative in helping the assistants cook, and I expect their work will have their ducks in order to fully win unless we get to the point of illegality being utilized by the capitalist class in Seattle


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on December 12, 2021, 10:27:00 PM
Dude she lost support between last election and this one.  Her victory margin has shrunk from 3,743 votes (2015) to 1,775 votes (2019) to 232 votes (2021).

I knew you guys were just going to fabricate a bunch of stuff and say this election "proves it" because she survived a recall by 200 votes, but come on.  The carpenters strikers told her to f--- off because she was trying to interfere with their strike to make it about her own personal issues instead of what they wanted.  Plenty of community leaders came out against her and very few came out for her.

If she hadn't found a loophole in the voting laws that she could exploit in the most brazen way possible to stash more votes, she would absolutely have lost.  She lost the fundraising battle in her own district.  She celebrated her victory by giving a speech where she attacked and alienated even more people.

I suppose it's a good thing that the communists hold her up as their national leader, because she's such a repulsive human being and awful politician that her prominence limits the cult's widespread appeal.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Calthrina950 on December 13, 2021, 12:48:42 AM
Both Sawant and the recall figureheads says it’s over, it’s over

SAlt will run as their own. What I suspect is that after 2023 they’ll have her run for state senate/house and then statewide.

Honestly, Sawant would make a good VP for 2028. The question becomes VP for whom.

Obviously, you're a Sawant supporter, but why has she been so controversial and faced so many challenges? I know virtually nothing about her.

According to a "joint statement from the Jewish, Black, and Asian communities" (of Seattle proper), which was previously posted here by GenMac, she has:

  • regularly traded in rhetoric giving rise in anti-Semitism, resulting in violence directed at Jewish residents
  • sought to hijack the efforts of BLM organizers to promote her own political agenda, which has been well-documented by local news coverage
  • refused to advocate for East/Southeast Asian small business owners by falsely equating poverty with crime
  • approrpriated her own South Asian identity for political gain without adequately representing her AAPI constituents
  • admitted to using city resources to support a ballot initiative, without complying with a public disclosure requirement related to this support
  • disobeyed a state order and endangered public workers by admitting hundreds of people into City Hall on June 9th, 2020



Given all of this, why does Sawant continue to win reelection? Obviously, her constituents are satisfied with her service.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on December 13, 2021, 12:51:44 AM
Whatever, when she wins by a wider margin next time I’ll rub it in harder. When you prove that you are divorced from reality in your district I will rub it in harder. And, hopefully, when we see a sweep of Seattle positions by the Left, I will be high as a kite for days.

Given the only “community leaders” who oppose Sawant are middle managers for Amazon, petty businessmen, and landlords—when you have people that repulsive and vile on your side, of course you are going to lose again and again. Meanwhile, the lessons and actions implemented in this race will be worthwhile going forward for elected officeholders and those wanting to get elected of how to campaign and what to expect from their opponents. That’s not to underscore how effective a political operator Sawant is in taking down ALL of her political opponents

Since I want to maximize my fun, here’s some fun comments from the past that turned out dead wrong

I can see Sawant having a bumpy term and going down in flames, voters just wanted an incumbent out and they got something worse she will have a short political career. And this $15 minimum wage is just pandering by Murray he will balk at enacting it city-wide and just do it for public workers even if it makes the ballot it will fail.
Pulling a Joe Biden isn’t doable then, and it is going to be harder in not delivering now that there still is a major threat to their seats.



Fremont Brewing Owner Sara Nelson Joins Race for City Council: https://www.seattlemet.com/articles/2017/4/20/fremont-brewing-owner-sara-nelson-joins-race-for-city-council[/url

 (https://www.seattlemet.com/articles/2017/4/20/fremont-brewing-owner-sara-nelson-joins-race-for-city-council)

Quote
She’s listed concerns about the $15 minimum wage and paid family leave,

Pass.
Oh, so Xing was spouting complete lies then to delude himself in voting against a progressive.

Finally, while I cannot find the post, Deadflagblues made one in the line of him disliking the style of her politics over #populist Bernie Sanders. It should be noted that I can see SAlt continuing to exist and grow with Kshama Sawant once she leaves her seat on Seattle’s council, but Bernie shot himself in the foot too many times and his influence has dwindled since his presidential campaigns. The reason I can see clearly is that Sanders caved in too much into relying on the Democratic Party to elevate himself, that it would be easy to take over and that there would be plenty of allies to join to his side. SAlt’s entryism is dumb, but they are not that idealistic.




Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on December 13, 2021, 01:45:26 AM
Whatever, random dude in Illinois, please tell me more about how I don't know my own neighborhood.

You love to talk about Sawant but I bet you can't name a single thing she's specifically done for the district, or a single local community leader or business that supported her this time but hadn't in the past.

Your arrogance is astounding.  And it's hilarious that you're bragging in your post that you've only grown more arrogant in the wake of your 0.5% victory in a recall election that no other member even had to face, and boasting about how you'll be an even more sore winner next time.  Like you think that's an appealing post?  You think that makes you look good?

You don't know anything about D3.  You don't know anything about Seattle.  You don't know anything about Sawant.  And you need to stop pretending you do.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on December 13, 2021, 02:29:56 AM
Whatever, random dude in Illinois, please tell me more about how I don't know my own neighborhood.

You love to talk about Sawant but I bet you can't name a single thing she's specifically done for the district, or a single local community leader or business that supported her this time but hadn't in the past.


You don't know anything about D3.  You don't know anything about Seattle.  You don't know anything about Sawant.  And you need to stop pretending you do.
lol, I’ve quite literally had several pages worth of evidence of things SAlt has done and the nature of their campaign and their supporters in this very thread.

Is it possible for you to just take a hike and blow off steam elsewhere instead of repeating the same deflection and lies over and over again? Surely focusing on the results and Atlas has caused a fuse or two to break.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on December 13, 2021, 11:17:20 AM
You love to talk about Sawant but I bet you can't name a single thing she's specifically done for the district, or a single local community leader or business that supported her this time but hadn't in the past.
lol, I’ve quite literally had several pages worth of evidence of things SAlt has done and the nature of their campaign and their supporters in this very thread.

lol I knew it


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Left Wing on December 13, 2021, 02:54:34 PM
SAlt has literally no presence in Washington or even Seattle outside of Sawant


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on December 13, 2021, 07:20:08 PM
I think Sawant loses in 2023. There were definitely people who voted against the recall and not for Sawant (I would've been one of those). D1 (West Seattle) and D2 (South Seattle) need to grow, which means D3 will need to shed some of its most progressive southern precincts south of Madison. That in itself might tilt the balance of this district enough. I guess it depends on her competition. It's underdiscussed how weak they've been... Pamela Banks was a NIMBY joke and Egan Orion was a markedly unaccomplished candidate (planning PrideFest is great for the LGBTQ community but his short stint at the Capitol Hill Chamber of Commerce was extremely underwhelming to the point that it dissolved months later).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on December 13, 2021, 08:02:37 PM
Who else do they have to run against her? The issue is that even the establishment section of progressive wing of the Democratic Party (not the DSA) both endorsed her and she endorsed them outside of her district. The entirety of the Left worked together for these past few years in enacting change in Seattle. That leaves the main Democratic establishment having to work together with Republicans in finding a suitable candidate, leading to gentrifiers and big business candidates be selected instead.

Redistricting might cause a serious loss of support, but is it enough to offset any gains a higher turnout election would give Sawant and the fact that, unless the left coalition breaks apart, the wider Left including SAlt will be in a stronger position in 2023.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: StateBoiler on December 14, 2021, 08:27:01 AM
If the city really wanted to screw her, make municipal elections carry ballot labels.

Also wouldn't surprise me they redistrict and hurts her.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 15, 2021, 02:36:29 PM
Pierce County Auditor Julie Anderson is running for SoS in 2022 as an Independent. She'll likely be the most qualified candidate on the ballot.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on December 15, 2021, 02:51:19 PM
Whatever, when she wins by a wider margin next time I’ll rub it in harder. When you prove that you are divorced from reality in your district I will rub it in harder. And, hopefully, when we see a sweep of Seattle positions by the Left, I will be high as a kite for days.

Given the only “community leaders” who oppose Sawant are middle managers for Amazon, petty businessmen, and landlords—when you have people that repulsive and vile on your side, of course you are going to lose again and again. Meanwhile, the lessons and actions implemented in this race will be worthwhile going forward for elected officeholders and those wanting to get elected of how to campaign and what to expect from their opponents. That’s not to underscore how effective a political operator Sawant is in taking down ALL of her political opponents

Since I want to maximize my fun, here’s some fun comments from the past that turned out dead wrong

I can see Sawant having a bumpy term and going down in flames, voters just wanted an incumbent out and they got something worse she will have a short political career. And this $15 minimum wage is just pandering by Murray he will balk at enacting it city-wide and just do it for public workers even if it makes the ballot it will fail.
Pulling a Joe Biden isn’t doable then, and it is going to be harder in not delivering now that there still is a major threat to their seats.



Fremont Brewing Owner Sara Nelson Joins Race for City Council: https://www.seattlemet.com/articles/2017/4/20/fremont-brewing-owner-sara-nelson-joins-race-for-city-council[/url

 (https://www.seattlemet.com/articles/2017/4/20/fremont-brewing-owner-sara-nelson-joins-race-for-city-council)

Quote
She’s listed concerns about the $15 minimum wage and paid family leave,

Pass.
Oh, so Xing was spouting complete lies then to delude himself in voting against a progressive.

Finally, while I cannot find the post, Deadflagblues made one in the line of him disliking the style of her politics over #populist Bernie Sanders. It should be noted that I can see SAlt continuing to exist and grow with Kshama Sawant once she leaves her seat on Seattle’s council, but Bernie shot himself in the foot too many times and his influence has dwindled since his presidential campaigns. The reason I can see clearly is that Sanders caved in too much into relying on the Democratic Party to elevate himself, that it would be easy to take over and that there would be plenty of allies to join to his side. SAlt’s entryism is dumb, but they are not that idealistic.




First of all, I couldn't vote in this election, since I don't live in D3. Second of all, I never denied that there are some issues in which I agree with her. It's her tactics that I can't fully get behind, as well as her constant desire to cause drama and grandstanding. What "lies" did I spout? When did I ever claim that Sawant is against a $15/hr minimum wage? Merely claiming that there are working class progressive voters who have other issues with her (that go beyond policy positions) isn't unsubstantiated. I've mostly discussed how members of my union feel, and I don't think another poster here is more qualified to report on that than I am. You can disagree with me without throwing out accusations like that.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on December 15, 2021, 03:14:25 PM
Sorry, I thought you called Sarah Nelson a progressive before, yeah then I was talking bull••••


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on December 19, 2021, 12:20:48 PM
Surprised no one posted it yet, but Sen. Doug Ericksen died from COVID.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on December 30, 2021, 03:19:00 PM


 


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on April 12, 2022, 09:23:49 PM
Looks like Eastern Washington LDs may be getting a redraw - maybe not in time for this year's general, but if not in 2022, then in 2023.

Article: https://www.courthousenews.com/federal-judge-urged-to-scrap-redistricting-maps-for-washington-state-legislature/ (https://www.courthousenews.com/federal-judge-urged-to-scrap-redistricting-maps-for-washington-state-legislature/)

Quote
Attorneys for Latino residents of Yakima Valley in Washington state asked a federal judge to block the redistricted maps for the Legislature from going into effect.

The hearing Tuesday in the Western District of Washington focused both on the claims that the maps dilute the power of Latinos in Yakima Valley to elect their chosen candidates, as well as the timing of the election. The court must determine whether those factors favor tossing out the new maps until the case is decided on its merits at a trial scheduled for early 2023.

...

Gaber said the plaintiffs have met the U.S. Supreme Court’s criteria to prove racial vote dilution under the Voting Rights Act, noting that the Latino community is large and compact enough in Yakima Valley to constitute a majority in a legislative district, is “politically cohesive” and votes as a group to defeat the minority group’s preferred candidate.

Senior U.S. District Judge Robert Lasnik, a Bill Clinton appointee, indicated that the merits of the Latino voters’ case were persuasive but questioned whether it would be appropriate to block use of the maps at this stage of the process. Lasnik pointed to the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent decision to keep in place Alabama’s congressional map despite evidence of racial gerrymandering, citing the proximity to the election.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on April 28, 2022, 06:53:21 PM
This thread has been real quiet... probably time for a) an updated name for 2022 and b) an early look at legislative races and retirements

Quite the exodus from Olympia - largely on the D side (from safe/solid districts), but also a good number of Rs are also leaving. It does seem like there's a problem in D caucus culture, combined with the part-time nature of the legislature that's leading a lot of newer faces to retire & particularly so for BIPOC pols.

I mapped out the new legislative districts in DRA so will post those later. A few notable changes on the fringes of the metro, Vancouver, and Spokane. Plus a new cross-Cascades 12th!

Retirements in the Senate:

LD-8 Sen. Sharon Brown, R-Kennewick, was appointed in 2013 and currently serves on the Ways & Means Committee. She announced her decision to retire from the legislature in November

LD-35 Sen. Tim Sheldon, DINO-Potlach, is the longest serving member of the Washington Legislature. He was elected to the House in 1990 and the Senate in 1996. He announced his retirement in March.

LD-36 Sen. Reuven Carlyle, D-Seattle, assumed office in 2009 and announced in January that he will leave the legislature at the end of his term. He sits on the Ways & Means Committee.

LD-39 Sen. Keith Wagoner, R-Sedro-Woolley, announced in December his plans to run for Secretary of State. His Senate seat is not up for election so he will return to the Senate if he loses his bid for Secretary of State (pretty likely).

LD-46 Sen. David Frockt, D-Seattle, has served since 2011 and announced in October that he would not seek reelection. He’s the capital budget chair of the Ways & Means Committee and serves on the Health & Long Term Care Committee.

LD-47 Sen. Mona Das, D-Kent, has served since 2021 and announced in March that she is not seeking reelection.




Retirements in the House:

LD-4 Rep. Bob McCaslin, R-Spokane, announced in February that he would leave the legislature to run for Spokane County Auditor. He has been a member of the House since 2014.

LD-8 Rep. Matt Boehnke, R-Kennewick, is serving his second term and sits on the Appropriations Committee. He is running for State Senate to replace Sharon Brown (R).

LD-8 Rep. Brad Klippert, R-Kennewick, is running for WA-4 against incumbent Dan Newhouse (R).

LD-15 Rep. Jeremie Dufault, R-Selah, assumed office in 2019 and will not seek reelection because the state’s new redistricting plans draw him out of district and he and his family do not want to move.

LD-17 Rep. Vicki Kraft, R-Vancouver, is running for WA-3 against incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler.

LD-18 Rep. Larry Hoff, R-Vancouver, is serving his second term in office and announced last week that he will not seek reelection. He sits on the Appropriations and College & Workforce Development Committees.

LD-22 Rep. Laurie Dolan, D-Olympia, assumed office in 2017 and currently serves on the Appropriations Committee. She announced her decision to retire from the legislature in March.

LD-26 Rep. Jesse Young, R-Gig Harbor, was appointed to the House in 2014. He is running for state senate against incumbent Emily Randall (D-Bremerton).

LD-29 Rep. Steve Kirby, D-South Tacoma, has served in the House since 2001 and announced his decision to retire from the legislature in December.

LD-30 Rep. Jesse Johnson, D-Federal Way, was appointed to the legislature in 2020 and announced in early March that he would leave the legislature to spend more time with his family.

LD-34 Rep. Eileen Cody, D-West Seattle, announced her retirement in March. She has served in the House since 1995 and sits on the Appropriations and Health Care and Wellness Committees.

LD-35 Rep. Drew MacEwen, R-Union, has served in office since 2013 and sits on the Appropriations and Capital Budget Committees. He is running for state senate to replace Tim Sheldon (DINO).

LD-36 Rep. Noel Frame, D-Seattle, assumed office in 2016 and serves on the Appropriations Committee. She is running for state senate to replace Reuven Carlyle (D).

LD-37 Rep. Kirsten Harris-Talley, D-Seattle, assumed office in 2021 and announced in March that she would not be running for reelection.

LD-38 Rep. Mike Sells, D-Everett, assumed office in 2005 and announced in February that he would leave the legislature at the end of his term.

LD-38 Rep. Emily Wicks, D-Everett, was appointed in 2020 and announced she will not seek reelection this week.

LD-46 Rep. Javier Valdez, D-Seattle, assumed office in 2017. He is running for state senate to replace David Frockt (D).

LD-47 House Majority Leader Rep. Pat Sullivan, D-Covington, assumed office in 2005 and became the House Majority Leader in 2010. He announced his retirement from the legislature last week.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on May 07, 2022, 10:33:23 AM


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on May 08, 2022, 10:06:50 PM
Only news I have to post is a Crosscut/Elway approval poll of my man Bruce Harrell:

40% approve
19% disapprove
41% no opinion

killing it so far


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Roll Roons on May 08, 2022, 10:10:39 PM
Only news I have to post is a Crosscut/Elway approval poll of my man Bruce Harrell:

40% approve
19% disapprove
41% no opinion

killing it so far

Anything about Davison? As awful as NTK was, I still can't get over the fact that a Republican actually won in Seattle.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: CultureKing on May 09, 2022, 12:53:09 AM
So, we are finally free of Tim Sheldon?! As someone who grew up in his district, this deserves a celebration!

..though the days of electing democrats in Shelton/Hood Canal may be over.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on May 09, 2022, 01:17:22 AM
So, we are finally free of Tim Sheldon?! As someone who grew up in his district, this deserves a celebration!

..though the days of electing democrats in Shelton/Hood Canal may be over.
How did the new LD-35 vote in 2020?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: LePageFan on May 09, 2022, 09:28:24 AM
So, we are finally free of Tim Sheldon?! As someone who grew up in his district, this deserves a celebration!

..though the days of electing democrats in Shelton/Hood Canal may be over.
How did the new LD-35 vote in 2020?
The new LD-35 voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on May 09, 2022, 02:25:46 PM
So, we are finally free of Tim Sheldon?! As someone who grew up in his district, this deserves a celebration!

..though the days of electing democrats in Shelton/Hood Canal may be over.
How did the new LD-35 vote in 2020?
The new LD-35 voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020.
What's the margin, though?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 09, 2022, 02:32:54 PM
So, we are finally free of Tim Sheldon?! As someone who grew up in his district, this deserves a celebration!

..though the days of electing democrats in Shelton/Hood Canal may be over.
How did the new LD-35 vote in 2020?
The new LD-35 voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020.

2016: Trump 47.2 - Clinton 43.7, Trump +3.5
2020: Trump 48.7 - Biden 47.7, Trump +1
Voted R in Gov/LG/AG/Senate in 2020, 2018, and 2016 (except for '16 Senate & AG).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on May 09, 2022, 07:05:12 PM
Only news I have to post is a Crosscut/Elway approval poll of my man Bruce Harrell:

40% approve
19% disapprove
41% no opinion

killing it so far

Anything about Davison? As awful as NTK was, I still can't get over the fact that a Republican actually won in Seattle.

Davison has been struggling with the unholy mess of an office Pete Holmes left her with, including a backlog of 5,000 cases that were just left to gather dust.

Her main priority has been trying to prosecute the most prolific offenders -- the guys who regularly steal from stores and property downtown and have been getting away with funding an entire lifestyle this way for years without any threat of serious prosecution despite getting caught on a near-weekly basis.  Holmes never seemed to think it was worth bothering with these people because no individual crime they committed was very serious, even though stealing $100 in liquor every single week eventually adds up to an enormous amount of criminal damages, plus just generally a substantial degradation of the city for our businesses.

A few weeks ago she decided to announce they weren't going to prosecute 2,000 of those cases, which the left-wing press in this city had a field day with ("lol see there's no difference between Davison and NTK").  Her big battle has been trying to fight the courts for the right to prosecute the prolific offenders.  The courts require the offenders to be sent to community court, where they get put in programs which they then completely ignore, go right back out on the street to steal again, get arrested, and the cycle repeats itself ad infinitum.  Davison wants to break that cycle but the courts won't let her.  So she's been arguing the case.

Just today she won a major victory in the Seattle Municipal Court -- demonstrating that at the very least, the allegation that Davison was some amateurish attorney unfit for the job was untrue.  We'll see how this holds up.  Obviously I support what Davison is trying to do.  But there are years and years of legal brambles she has to wade through just to do something that should be really simple.

https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/frequent-offenders-blocked-seattle-community-court/281-43f810a5-2f09-4adf-b926-29be327ce8f0


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on May 21, 2022, 01:10:22 AM
Filing deadline passed today. Some tidbits:

1) Patty Murray's (irrelevant) opponents include both a "Trump Republican" and a "JFK Republican" (lol).

2) Mark Miloscia jumped into the SoS race. I think there's a good chance he and Wagoner split the vote, and we end up with a D vs. I race.

3) Three members/associates of the "Election Integrity Party" filed in LD 32, plus at least two more in other LDs. Members of the "MAGA Republican" and "America First (R)" parties also appear.  Some more imaginative party names include "The Elven Way Party" in LD 5 and the "Congress Sucks Party" in WA-10.

4) I will not have a primary opponent.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on May 23, 2022, 04:07:41 PM
Best of luck with your campaign! If only your type of candidates could run in places like LD-2, LD-12, LD-25, LD-26, LD-31, and LD-39.... LD-44 is very likely too far of an uphill climb for an R to win in a post-Roe environment. But who knows.

Interesting factoid. All 3 legislators from LD-44 are Black - only the second time that has occurred in WA. Plus the district is just 3.7% Black - 63% white.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on June 16, 2022, 12:52:41 AM
Approval Voting is coming to Washington (https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-seattle-government-and-politics-general-3385180ac871c99a17d1f4c714b2a228)

Dear god, approval voting is nothing but gobbledygook confusion. Who in their right minds thinks this is a good idea?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ProgressiveModerate on June 16, 2022, 01:03:58 AM
Best of luck with your campaign! If only your type of candidates could run in places like LD-2, LD-12, LD-25, LD-26, LD-31, and LD-39.... LD-44 is very likely too far of an uphill climb for an R to win in a post-Roe environment. But who knows.

Interesting factoid. All 3 legislators from LD-44 are Black - only the second time that has occurred in WA. Plus the district is just 3.7% Black - 63% white.

I'm pretty confident the WA results for 2022 will result in Dems controlling both chambers but with relatively embarrassing majorities given the topline politics of the state.

The main issue for the GOP is that in both chambers, their path through victory runs through Biden + 20ish suburban seats, many of which have D incumbents. None of these districts have had shifts particuarly good for the GOP, and don't have as much turnout dropoff potential to favour the GOP.

I will say though Republicans performance in the Washington legislature has been historically relatively strong considering, but this has waned more in recent cycles.

Likely D for both chambers, though virtually no chance of winning a supermajority this year.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on June 16, 2022, 01:09:17 AM
Approval Voting is coming to Washington (https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-seattle-government-and-politics-general-3385180ac871c99a17d1f4c714b2a228)

Dear god, approval voting is nothing but gobbledygook confusion. Who in their right minds thinks this is a good idea?


Politicians will become even more of robotic cowards.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Canis on June 16, 2022, 03:56:31 PM
Approval Voting is coming to Washington (https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-seattle-government-and-politics-general-3385180ac871c99a17d1f4c714b2a228)

Dear god, approval voting is nothing but gobbledygook confusion. Who in their right minds thinks this is a good idea?


Politicians will become even more of robotic cowards.

Approval isn't awful, it actually has some advantages over  RCV in single winner elections. I do prefer RCV to it. STAR also is a really nice hybrid of the two but its pretty fringe and hard to explain.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on June 17, 2022, 10:36:17 AM
Approval Voting is coming to Washington (https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-seattle-government-and-politics-general-3385180ac871c99a17d1f4c714b2a228)

Dear god, approval voting is nothing but gobbledygook confusion. Who in their right minds thinks this is a good idea?


Politicians will become even more of robotic cowards.

Approval isn't awful, it actually has some advantages over  RCV in single winner elections. I do prefer RCV to it. STAR also is a really nice hybrid of the two but its pretty fringe and hard to explain.
Approval voting is literally the worst idea of all time, and the fact some techbro loser is sponsoring it makes it a given.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on June 18, 2022, 12:23:14 PM
Will Kreidler resign or will he stubbornly push through? I'm leaning toward the latter.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on June 18, 2022, 06:49:48 PM
Will Kreidler resign or will he stubbornly push through? I'm leaning toward the latter.

Such a shame Washington didn't vote for Kreidler's opponent (https://voter.votewa.gov/genericvoterguide.aspx?e=866&c=99#/candidates/60179/1532602) last time round:

Quote
I am an autistic savant who has extensive knowledge and the many of the abilities of the President Reagan and President Jefferson Presidencies that I will incorporate into running the O.I.C. externally like the Reagan Administration and Internally (within WA) as the Jefferson Administration. I am the only candidate who has incorporated Specific Roles for Mr. Kriedler and Mr. Welti in the Office of Insurance Commissioner. I will be the External Insurance Commissioner for 60% of the time. Mr. Kriedler and Mr. Welti would each be External Insurance Commissioner for 20% of the time if I am elected Insurance Commissioner. I would fill the roles of Ronald, Nancy and Nixon, and Mr. Kriedler would be assigned the role of Carter and Mr. Welti would be Gerald Ford.

As for Internally, I have found 168 Honorable Insurance Agents all of whom are more qualified then myself to each serve in 1 hour increments as Internal Insurance Commissioners of Washington state. That is how the Jeffersonian movement to Counterbalance and stabilize the Affordable Care Act.

Additionally, I am fully willing and prepared to work with the either the Trump or Biden Administration.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on June 19, 2022, 11:29:57 AM
Will Kreidler resign or will he stubbornly push through? I'm leaning toward the latter.

Such a shame Washington didn't vote for Kreidler's opponent (https://voter.votewa.gov/genericvoterguide.aspx?e=866&c=99#/candidates/60179/1532602) last time round:

Quote
I am an autistic savant who has extensive knowledge and the many of the abilities of the President Reagan and President Jefferson Presidencies that I will incorporate into running the O.I.C. externally like the Reagan Administration and Internally (within WA) as the Jefferson Administration. I am the only candidate who has incorporated Specific Roles for Mr. Kriedler and Mr. Welti in the Office of Insurance Commissioner. I will be the External Insurance Commissioner for 60% of the time. Mr. Kriedler and Mr. Welti would each be External Insurance Commissioner for 20% of the time if I am elected Insurance Commissioner. I would fill the roles of Ronald, Nancy and Nixon, and Mr. Kriedler would be assigned the role of Carter and Mr. Welti would be Gerald Ford.

As for Internally, I have found 168 Honorable Insurance Agents all of whom are more qualified then myself to each serve in 1 hour increments as Internal Insurance Commissioners of Washington state. That is how the Jeffersonian movement to Counterbalance and stabilize the Affordable Care Act.

Additionally, I am fully willing and prepared to work with the either the Trump or Biden Administration.

It's incredibly difficult to recruit candidates to run for Insurance Commissioner, meaning you get hilarious people like Patel stepping up. Insurance companies are banned from contributing to candidates for the office and until recently no one else has cared that much about it. Plus the office is and has been a mess for a while.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on June 20, 2022, 03:13:07 PM
Will Kreidler resign or will he stubbornly push through? I'm leaning toward the latter.

Can he be impeached? Sounds like support is there on both sides of the aisle.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Utah Neolib on June 20, 2022, 06:23:30 PM
Will Kreidler resign or will he stubbornly push through? I'm leaning toward the latter.

Such a shame Washington didn't vote for Kreidler's opponent (https://voter.votewa.gov/genericvoterguide.aspx?e=866&c=99#/candidates/60179/1532602) last time round:

Quote
I am an autistic savant who has extensive knowledge and the many of the abilities of the President Reagan and President Jefferson Presidencies that I will incorporate into running the O.I.C. externally like the Reagan Administration and Internally (within WA) as the Jefferson Administration. I am the only candidate who has incorporated Specific Roles for Mr. Kriedler and Mr. Welti in the Office of Insurance Commissioner. I will be the External Insurance Commissioner for 60% of the time. Mr. Kriedler and Mr. Welti would each be External Insurance Commissioner for 20% of the time if I am elected Insurance Commissioner. I would fill the roles of Ronald, Nancy and Nixon, and Mr. Kriedler would be assigned the role of Carter and Mr. Welti would be Gerald Ford.

As for Internally, I have found 168 Honorable Insurance Agents all of whom are more qualified then myself to each serve in 1 hour increments as Internal Insurance Commissioners of Washington state. That is how the Jeffersonian movement to Counterbalance and stabilize the Affordable Care Act.

Additionally, I am fully willing and prepared to work with the either the Trump or Biden Administration.
Olakwandi is that you?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on July 16, 2022, 12:48:32 AM
Some highlights (or "high"lights) from the voters' guide:

https://voter.votewa.gov/genericvoterguide.aspx?e=876&c=99#/candidates/101451/1546564 (the whole thing, really)

Quote from: https://voter.votewa.gov/genericvoterguide.aspx?e=876&c=99#/candidates/101401/1544115
Community Service
lifelong member of the department of Based

Quote from: https://voter.votewa.gov/genericvoterguide.aspx?e=876&c=99#/candidates/101415/1549402
Education
Not much

Quote from: https://voter.votewa.gov/genericvoterguide.aspx?e=876&c=99#/candidates/101419/1546345
My First Candidates Statement? My Last Words Spoken To The Unjust Tyrants. Your Exigencies Have No Place Before The People. Born and raised in the lowest echelon of Our society, it is a mysterious question for Us. Where does one get the experience needed to Faithfully Execute The Public Trust according to the highest principles of The Declaration Of Independence? Solon Grotius Leibniz Burlamaqui Fontanelle? I propose that We The People use the best of all they offered, and put that to work.

Quote from: https://voter.votewa.gov/genericvoterguide.aspx?e=876&c=99#/candidates/101405/1549122
I am, by definition, a Patriot (a word that appears unfamiliar to progressives).

Quote from: https://voter.votewa.gov/genericvoterguide.aspx?e=876&c=99#/candidates/101552/1547433
Statement
Trump, America First, USA; Trump, America First, USA; Trump, America First, USA

I speak to all descent people right to stop Dem-Nazi-Fascist-Mob-Bandito now! Stop Dem-Nazi-Fascist-Mob-Bandito revolt regime!

Quote from: https://voter.votewa.gov/genericvoterguide.aspx?e=876&c=99#/candidates/101513/1551953
Statement
I am a 21st century Renaissance woman and Alchemist Artist. I have been a Hip Hop Activist for over 25 years. Working across Both sides of the aisle. Positive Transformation in this state requires bridge building and a willingness to listen. I firmly believe in Election integrity, my ancestors fought for it. But before we can get there this State needs to do some self reflecting, and only an Artistic Renaissance can Resurrect this Region. Help it Rise into it's full Phoenix potential.King County's name sake, (Dr. Martin Luther King jr.) is a powerful ancestor, guiding the region away from the dream, and into the  Reality of the need for us all to reflect on the Content of our Character. I'm running to hold the people accountable. Most  Politicians aren't familiar with that concept. If you are a parent, Accountability reigns supreme. I embrace the principles of my ancestors and the Hip Hop Declaration of Peace. I Blaze a trail for the next generation of Artist Activists in honor of my son and my students. I vow to ask myself daily, What would Frederick Douglass Do?

Quote from: https://voter.votewa.gov/genericvoterguide.aspx?e=876&c=99#/candidates/101401/1544168
Elected Experience
None, which is an attribute.

Quote from: https://voter.votewa.gov/genericvoterguide.aspx?e=876&c=99#/candidates/101401/1545509
Statement
F*** Qanon. F*** Vladimir Putin.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 02, 2022, 10:31:46 AM
It's primary day. Lots of interesting races. I'm watching the SoS race, WA-03 and WA-04, a bunch of King and SnoCo LD races, and several others. Predictions?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on August 02, 2022, 10:39:21 AM
It's primary day. Lots of interesting races. I'm watching the SoS race, WA-03 and WA-04, a bunch of King and SnoCo LD races, and several others. Predictions?

I predict that you will win !


Good luck Dr. RI


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on August 02, 2022, 10:47:15 AM
Dr. RI will probably be the next elected atlas member.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on August 02, 2022, 11:38:07 AM
It's primary day. Lots of interesting races. I'm watching the SoS race, WA-03 and WA-04, a bunch of King and SnoCo LD races, and several others. Predictions?

Best of luck in your race!

I’m sticking by my prediction that JHB and Peréz will make the top two in WA-03. I’m guessing Newhouse will get a spot in the top two in WA-04, though I’m not as sure whether Culp or White will get the other spot. The race in my legislative district could be interesting in November, since Gross and Valdez are all but guaranteed to make the top two today.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 02, 2022, 02:46:14 PM
This is the first year I can remember that I'll be returning my ballot on election day. Oops! It's been a busy few weeks and given my evening plans it'll be a race to get my ballot to a drop box by 8.

I'll be looking at results for LD-26 (senate), LD-42 (all positions), LD-10 (Dave Paul), and LD-44 (atlasian).

I'm in agreement that WA-3 will be JHB/Perez and Newhouse is fine.

As for the 46th, I like Valdez, but will be voting for Gross + Hadeel Jeanne, even though she's withdrawn from the race (I think she's still on the ballot?). Unsure for Pos 2.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Utah Neolib on August 02, 2022, 03:25:43 PM
Dr. RI will probably be the next elected atlas member.
Let’s all hope he doesn’t commit vehicular manslaughter.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on August 02, 2022, 03:30:04 PM
for the primaries here, there's still an election in November even if a candidate gets over 50%, correct?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 02, 2022, 03:36:56 PM
for the primaries here, there's still an election in November even if a candidate gets over 50%, correct?

Yes, the top two go on the general no matter what.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on August 02, 2022, 11:37:52 PM
Is there a reason Democrats left so many seats unopposed in somewhat competitive districts like 12 and 15? Obviously this isn't an easy year for Democrats, but to put up NOBODY? That just seems like a poor judgment. Especially District 15 when Latinos are leaving the party in droves... at least put someone up to run!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on August 03, 2022, 12:26:13 AM
Is there a reason Democrats left so many seats unopposed in somewhat competitive districts like 12 and 15? Obviously this isn't an easy year for Democrats, but to put up NOBODY? That just seems like a poor judgment. Especially District 15 when Latinos are leaving the party in droves... at least put someone up to run!
The Dems never not be in Disarray


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Ferguson97 on August 03, 2022, 09:12:12 AM
Dr. RI, what office are you running for?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 03, 2022, 10:00:23 AM
Dr. RI, what office are you running for?

State House. Given that Republicans across WA were demolished yesterday, I think I did respectably, but it's highly unlikely I win at this point. Late returns should give me a bump, but I'll probably trail by ~10 (in a Biden +22 district, albeit a high swingy one) when all is said and done.

There were some stunning results yesterday. Carmen Goers, a black Republican endorsed by the Seattle Times and backed by HROC, came in fifth(!) in LD 47, even trailing two other Republicans.

I also suspect people are writing Kent and Culp's obituaries prematurely.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 03, 2022, 06:39:55 PM
New matchbacks are starting to drop. ~45% of the vote or more to be counted still. Much more R than earlier votes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on August 03, 2022, 06:48:40 PM
It’s possible but unlikely (I’d say) that Kent and Culp catch up. Unless the remaining dumps are significantly more friendly to them, they’re not going to gain enough to pull into second place.

RI, your performance is definitely admirable for a Republican in a strongly Democratic district. You could definitely make it a single-digit race. It’s yet to be seen if Republicans take note and see that your politics are more viable here than the likes of Culp, though.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on August 05, 2022, 02:28:25 PM
My notes thus far:

LD-10 -
Dave Paul (D, inc) up 54.6 - 45.3
Clyde Shavers (D) up 52.5 - 47.7 Greg Gilday (R, inc) that would be a pickup... what's going on here

LDs 17/18 - Vancouver burbs forever stuck in Lean R territory. The 17th is Biden +3.6 and 18th is Trump +0, I have him winning by 23 votes.

LD-25 - Puyallup and exurbs also forever stuck in Lean R. Biden +1.8 and the Ds didn't even find a candidate to run for one of the House positions.

LD-26 - Gig Harbor bluening continues
Emily Randall (D, inc) up 52 - 48 (Rs combined) She looks to be in a decent position for general
Adison Richards (D) up 50.5 - 49.4 Spencer Hutchins (R) another pickup, although tight
Michelle Caldier (R, inc) up 54.6 - 45.2 Matt Macklin (D)

LD-42 - the only concerning district for Ds, although I think Western not being in session may be responsible for some underperformance?
Rs combined (Simon Sefzik will be the nominee) 53 - 47 Sharon Shewmake (D)
Rs combined (Tawsha Thompson) 51.3 - 48.7 Alicia Rule (D, inc)
Rs combined (Dan Johnson) 51.8 - 48.2 Combined Ds (Joe Timmons)

LD-47 -
Lol only mentioning that Pos 2 is looking to be D vs D thanks to three Rs
Chris Stearns (D) 34.7 - Shukri Olow (D) 18.4 & growing, Barry Knowles (R) 17.8


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 25, 2022, 07:12:26 PM
WA-08 R Primary:

(Image Link) (http://maps.rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/22-WA-08-R-Prim.png)

Larkin blue, Dunn red, Jensen green, Stephenson yellow.

More coming.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 25, 2022, 10:51:52 PM
WA-03 Primary:

(Image Link) (http://maps.rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/22-WA-03-Prim.png)

Red is Perez, Blue is JHB, Orange is Kent, Green is St. John.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on August 26, 2022, 03:43:20 PM
WA-03 Primary:

(Image Link) (http://maps.rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/22-WA-03-Prim.png)

Red is Perez, Blue is JHB, Orange is Kent, Green is St. John.

These patterns are really interesting. Does anyone know what might be behind the patterns for each GOP candidate?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: cwt on September 22, 2022, 01:04:48 PM
New Crosscut poll (https://crosscut.com/politics/2022/09/poll-40-wa-voters-still-undecided-secretary-state-race) for the SoS race:

Hobbs 31%
Anderson 29%
Undecided 40%


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Canis on September 22, 2022, 01:22:04 PM
WA-03 Primary:

(Image Link) (http://maps.rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/22-WA-03-Prim.png)

Red is Perez, Blue is JHB, Orange is Kent, Green is St. John.

These patterns are really interesting. Does anyone know what might be behind the patterns for each GOP candidate?
Not super familiar with the district but I've been through a couple of times, looks like JHB did really well in the suburban parts of the district Kent did really well in the rural areas and St john did well around the area of her state senate district.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 12, 2022, 10:59:15 AM
Not a lot to hang my hat on in my race, but my hometown paper, which leans pretty strongly left and endorsed my opponent, had some nice words to say about me:

Quote from: https://www.heraldnet.com/opinion/editorial-donaghy-and-berg-effective-lawmakers-for-44th/
Rohla is an intriguing candidate. Bucking a Republican trend — at least at the national level — Rohla said he is not afraid to call out extreme views within his own party, and rebukes the election lies of former president Donald Trump. He presents himself as a skilled moderate problem-solver and would have much to offer fellow lawmakers, particularly on economic issues.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Senator Incitatus on October 12, 2022, 12:08:11 PM
Not a lot to hang my hat on in my race, but my hometown paper, which leans pretty strongly left and endorsed my opponent, had some nice words to say about me:

Quote from: https://www.heraldnet.com/opinion/editorial-donaghy-and-berg-effective-lawmakers-for-44th/
Rohla is an intriguing candidate. Bucking a Republican trend — at least at the national level — Rohla said he is not afraid to call out extreme views within his own party, and rebukes the election lies of former president Donald Trump. He presents himself as a skilled moderate problem-solver and would have much to offer fellow lawmakers, particularly on economic issues.

Did not realize you were running! Kudos.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on October 12, 2022, 12:10:09 PM
Not a lot to hang my hat on in my race, but my hometown paper, which leans pretty strongly left and endorsed my opponent, had some nice words to say about me:

Quote from: https://www.heraldnet.com/opinion/editorial-donaghy-and-berg-effective-lawmakers-for-44th/
Rohla is an intriguing candidate. Bucking a Republican trend — at least at the national level — Rohla said he is not afraid to call out extreme views within his own party, and rebukes the election lies of former president Donald Trump. He presents himself as a skilled moderate problem-solver and would have much to offer fellow lawmakers, particularly on economic issues.

Did not realize you were running! Kudos.
Best of luck in your campaign!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on November 13, 2022, 03:12:36 PM
Seattle has ranked choice voting now. Kshama Sawant is more likely to go down now than during the recall.

Did Dr. RI win?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Not Me, Us on November 13, 2022, 03:57:15 PM
Seattle has ranked choice voting now. Kshama Sawant is more likely to go down now than during the recall.

Did Dr. RI win?

Unfortunately not.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on November 28, 2022, 10:49:08 PM
Looks like Ds gained a seat in both the senate and the house.
Perpetually competitive LD-42 elected Rep Sharon Shewmake to the senate by about 1.2% over appointed incumbent Sefzik (who replaced Doug Erickson when he passed from Covid).

Ds also very narrowly picked up a seat in the house in LD-10, where Clyde Shavers is ahead of incumbent Greg Gilday by .24%.

Emily Randall (D) narrowly hung on to her senate seat in LD-26 against Jesse Young (R) by 1.7%. However, Rs held on to the house seat vacated by Young by .98% with Spencer Hutchins winning over Addison Richards, who had narrowly lead for a good week before very late ballots flipped the race.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on December 07, 2022, 02:33:33 PM
Is Inslee going to run for a fourth term? I really hope not... I would like to see both him and Cantwell retire (that's not happening).

I'm sure Bob Ferguson and Dow Constantine will run for governor, probably some state legislators too.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: warandwar on December 08, 2022, 12:35:36 AM
Seattle has ranked choice voting now. Kshama Sawant is more likely to go down now than during the recall.

Last I heard, she is thinking about running for something else. Her base is getting gentrified out, as well.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on December 08, 2022, 12:27:09 PM
Seattle has ranked choice voting now. Kshama Sawant is more likely to go down now than during the recall.

Last I heard, she is thinking about running for something else. Her base is getting gentrified out, as well.
What exactly is there? If she can't win her district, how could she win something larger?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: warandwar on December 09, 2022, 10:09:18 AM
Seattle has ranked choice voting now. Kshama Sawant is more likely to go down now than during the recall.

Last I heard, she is thinking about running for something else. Her base is getting gentrified out, as well.
What exactly is there? If she can't win her district, how could she win something larger?
We'll see.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on December 11, 2022, 07:44:50 PM
Seattle has ranked choice voting now. Kshama Sawant is more likely to go down now than during the recall.

Last I heard, she is thinking about running for something else. Her base is getting gentrified out, as well.
What exactly is there? If she can't win her district, how could she win something larger?
We'll see.
Sometimes even small things are too much, keep those lips tight man cmon


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Seattle on December 31, 2022, 04:40:50 PM
From my limited conversations with friends involved in the state D party, it sounds like Inslee is going to indeed run for a 4th term. Anyone hearing anything different? Pretty bummed if so.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Utah Neolib on December 31, 2022, 05:04:44 PM
From my limited conversations with friends involved in the state D party, it sounds like Inslee is going to indeed run for a 4th term. Anyone hearing anything different? Pretty bummed if so.
Inslee is already sorta fundraising for it and I’m pretty sure he goes for it again. Would’ve been nice to see someone new though. If he runs and wins a fourth term, he will have served 16 YEARS in the office.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: BenjiG98 on February 22, 2023, 03:18:18 PM


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Rat on February 22, 2023, 04:18:48 PM
I feel like she's still too conservative for WA in a similar way that Smiley was, but better than Culp for sure.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: wbrocks67 on February 23, 2023, 09:25:15 AM
I feel like she's still too conservative for WA in a similar way that Smiley was, but better than Culp for sure.

Her last votes in congress (same sex marriage, birth control, abortion, etc.) will certainly come back to haunt her.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on February 24, 2023, 11:23:11 AM
I feel like she's still too conservative for WA in a similar way that Smiley was, but better than Culp for sure.

Her last votes in congress (same sex marriage, birth control, abortion, etc.) will certainly come back to haunt her.

Probably, but they're also vastly less well-known compared to her impeachment vote and getting primaried by a far right Putin supporter. I'm sure the Dems will push those votes hard and probably succeed as it's Washington, but who knows; being pro-life didn't hurt prominent anti-Trump Republicans like DeWine and Kemp.

Personally, I really like JHB and would gladly support her, possibly even volunteer.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Oryxslayer on February 24, 2023, 04:26:08 PM
I feel like she's still too conservative for WA in a similar way that Smiley was, but better than Culp for sure.

Her last votes in congress (same sex marriage, birth control, abortion, etc.) will certainly come back to haunt her.


Probably, but they're also vastly less well-known compared to her impeachment vote and getting primaried by a far right Putin supporter. I'm sure the Dems will push those votes hard and probably succeed as it's Washington, but who knows; being pro-life didn't hurt prominent anti-Trump Republicans like DeWine and Kemp.

Personally, I really like JHB and would gladly support her, possibly even volunteer.


Yeah, there's nothing wrong with JHB running for Governor - other than it suggests she thinks the blanket primary won't let her win her old job back. The issue is that Inslee is entrenched at this point and everyone - both D and R - will need him to retire of succumb to scandal for the office to seriously be contested.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: kingcharlesvii on March 29, 2023, 12:00:57 AM
Disappointed to see there hasn't been much discussion around two big recent developments in Washington State Politics.

1st, The State Supreme Court ruled that the Capital Gains tax passed a few sessions ago is constitutional, they did however completely avoided touching the income tax debate by ruling a capital gains tax is an excise tax. I expect this will further empower progressives next session to consider trying to make a wealth tax happen as well as other progressive revenue options.
https://www.heraldnet.com/news/supreme-court-rules-states-new-capital-gains-tax-is-legal/

2nd, In light of the recent Northwest Progressive Institute's poll that showed him at only 7% and far behind AG Ferguson, King County Executive Dow Constantine announced he will not be a candidate for Governor. Leaving only Ferguson and State Public Lands Commissioner Hilary Franz the only prominent politicians angling for governor on the democratic side, though Lt Gov. Denny Heck could be well positioned to take advantage of the relative obscurity of the current field amongst the general public
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/king-county-executive-dow-constantine-wont-run-for-wa-governor/
https://www.nwprogressive.org/weblog/2023/03/bruce-dammeier-r-bob-ferguson-d-lead-hypothetical-2024-gubernatorial-field-in-wa.html


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on March 29, 2023, 12:03:34 PM
The capital gains ruling is horrific judicial reasoning, but that's par for the course for the Washington Supreme Court, and the tax as it stands barely impacts anyone so it won't have much political effect. Given their (specious) reasoning in the case, I don't see how a wealth tax stands, but I bet they'd uphold an income tax. Dems should be careful for what they wish for there, though; an income tax is the one thing I could see blowing up in their faces enough to lose power.

I don't see the Governor's race being very interesting on the Dem side. It's Inslee's if he wants it, Ferguson's otherwise. The R side will either be JHB or some Culp acolyte such as Semi Bird (lol). Dammeier could've made it interesting against Ferguson, but likely would've lost; JHB might make it somewhat closer than usual, but she'd lose as well.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on March 31, 2023, 04:21:06 PM
The capital gains ruling is horrific judicial reasoning, but that's par for the course for the Washington Supreme Court, and the tax as it stands barely impacts anyone so it won't have much political effect. Given their (specious) reasoning in the case, I don't see how a wealth tax stands, but I bet they'd uphold an income tax. Dems should be careful for what they wish for there, though; an income tax is the one thing I could see blowing up in their faces enough to lose power.

I don't see the Governor's race being very interesting on the Dem side. It's Inslee's if he wants it, Ferguson's otherwise. The R side will either be JHB or some Culp acolyte such as Semi Bird (lol). Dammeier could've made it interesting against Ferguson, but likely would've lost; JHB might make it somewhat closer than usual, but she'd lose as well.

The threat of a state income tax would probably be enough to get me to vote against the Dems, especially if they did it not via constitutional amendment but by abusing the far-left state courts to circumvent the state constitution.

I'd have to assume some normal "liberal but no income tax" candidate would run as an alternative in that case, because there would be a massive space in the race for such a candidate.  No way Loren Culp is the only candidate who isn't pro-income-tax.  Have to assume King County businesses and tech millionaires would absolutely drown such a candidate in money.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Kamala’s side hoe on April 20, 2023, 09:42:18 PM
What happened in the state of Washington in the midterms is also a clue, Republicans gained in Minority areas of the state and Democrats with Whites, the result was Democrats picking up an extra Seat because Minority Seats were Safe Seats.

So the "brown vote" doesn't matter that much until the GOP wins 60% with them, instead of the current 40%, but it's getting there slowly. I say around 2032.

Can someone who's familiar with 2022 results in the various King County Seattle suburbs and Tacoma give a detailed breakdown of what happened here? Or how much of the Yakima Valley House, Senate, and State Legislature swings were from turnout changes vs persuasion?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on May 01, 2023, 11:13:42 AM
Inslee is not running for re-election. (https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/wa-gov-jay-inslee-wont-seek-reelection-for-fourth-term/)

Congrats to Governor Ferguson.


Title: WA-GOV 2024: Inslee retiring
Post by: Zedonathin2020 on May 01, 2023, 11:32:48 AM


Title: Re: WA-GOV 2024: Inslee retiring
Post by: They put it to a vote and they just kept lying on May 01, 2023, 11:38:23 AM
RIP to the GOAT, wish he had gotten Secretary of Energy but very much appreciate his service as Governor. That being said...

Why does Washington state have such a boring bench?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: NewYorkExpress on May 01, 2023, 04:44:18 PM
Mildly curious to see if Inslee got promised a cabinet position in a Biden second term. Energy, Health and Human Services and Interior are all possibilities.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on May 01, 2023, 06:15:35 PM
Honestly, not too surprising. Governor Ferguson it is.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on May 01, 2023, 06:24:21 PM
So who is going to be the longest tenured Governor after he leaves? Phil Murphy?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Zedonathin2020 on May 01, 2023, 07:30:33 PM
So who is going to be the longest tenured Governor after he leaves? Phil Murphy?

Wrong Phil. It'll be Phill Scott and Chris Sununu


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on May 02, 2023, 11:43:29 AM
Unsurprisingly, Ferguson announced an exploratory committee to run for governor today.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Rat on May 02, 2023, 02:14:02 PM
Is there anyone else seriously challenging Ferguson, or is this basically gonna be a coronation?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Rhenna on May 02, 2023, 03:34:23 PM
Is there anyone else seriously challenging Ferguson, or is this basically gonna be a coronation?
Could Hilary Franz win?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on May 03, 2023, 12:27:58 PM
Is there anyone else seriously challenging Ferguson, or is this basically gonna be a coronation?
Could Hilary Franz win?

There's an outside chance of her winning if it's a Ferguson vs. Franz general election. Would require her pulling in significant Republican support while winning most non-progressive Democrats.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Born to Slay. Forced to Work. on May 03, 2023, 06:22:37 PM
For a state as lopsided in partisan and having no term limits there should be no reason to coronate Ferguson.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Born to Slay. Forced to Work. on May 03, 2023, 06:24:28 PM
Also if Habib didn’t retire and become a priest could he have run?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Dr. MB on May 08, 2023, 03:19:27 AM
Is there anyone else seriously challenging Ferguson, or is this basically gonna be a coronation?
Jeff Bezos will probably enter the race.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on May 09, 2023, 10:48:09 AM
Manka Dhingra is running for AG. Lord have mercy.

Raul Garcia has filed for Governor on the Republican side. At least he's a halfway decent option.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on May 09, 2023, 12:39:12 PM
Manka Dhingra is running for AG. Lord have mercy.

Raul Garcia has filed for Governor on the Republican side. At least he's a halfway decent option.

What specifically about Dhingra makes her unqualified?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on May 09, 2023, 03:28:06 PM
Manka Dhingra is running for AG. Lord have mercy.

Raul Garcia has filed for Governor on the Republican side. At least he's a halfway decent option.

What specifically about Dhingra makes her unqualified?

She's not "unqualified" in any narrow sense. I just view her as everything we don't need in an AG. She was the senator pushing the garbage report alleging the police pursuit ban was necessary to save bystander lives, and she's been the key obstacle blocking efforts to fix that policy for multiple sessions. The Seattle Times even endorsed her Republican opponent (very rare!) last year and labeled her as "out of touch" and "intransigent." (https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/editorials/the-times-recommends-ryika-hooshangi-for-state-senate-legislative-district-45/) She'd put Washington's soft-on-crime nonsense into overdrive.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Born to Slay. Forced to Work. on May 09, 2023, 04:02:10 PM
Manka Dhingra is running for AG. Lord have mercy.

Raul Garcia has filed for Governor on the Republican side. At least he's a halfway decent option.

What specifically about Dhingra makes her unqualified?

She's not "unqualified" in any narrow sense. I just view her as everything we don't need in an AG. She was the senator pushing the garbage report alleging the police pursuit ban was necessary to save bystander lives, and she's been the key obstacle blocking efforts to fix that policy for multiple sessions. The Seattle Times even endorsed her Republican opponent (very rare!) last year and labeled her as "out of touch" and "intransigent." (https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/editorials/the-times-recommends-ryika-hooshangi-for-state-senate-legislative-district-45/) She'd put Washington's soft-on-crime nonsense into overdrive.

Endorsed :p

(Sarcasm)
(Sorta)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Kamala’s side hoe on May 09, 2023, 09:22:25 PM
What happened in the state of Washington in the midterms is also a clue, Republicans gained in Minority areas of the state and Democrats with Whites, the result was Democrats picking up an extra Seat because Minority Seats were Safe Seats.

So the "brown vote" doesn't matter that much until the GOP wins 60% with them, instead of the current 40%, but it's getting there slowly. I say around 2032.

Can someone who's familiar with 2022 results in the various King County Seattle suburbs and Tacoma give a detailed breakdown of what happened here? Or how much of the Yakima Valley House, Senate, and State Legislature swings were from turnout changes vs persuasion?

Would be nice if someone has access to precinct data (and knowledge of spatial distribution/turnout patterns of POC voters) for congressional and state-level races.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on May 09, 2023, 11:51:05 PM
What happened in the state of Washington in the midterms is also a clue, Republicans gained in Minority areas of the state and Democrats with Whites, the result was Democrats picking up an extra Seat because Minority Seats were Safe Seats.

So the "brown vote" doesn't matter that much until the GOP wins 60% with them, instead of the current 40%, but it's getting there slowly. I say around 2032.

Can someone who's familiar with 2022 results in the various King County Seattle suburbs and Tacoma give a detailed breakdown of what happened here? Or how much of the Yakima Valley House, Senate, and State Legislature swings were from turnout changes vs persuasion?

Would be nice if someone has access to precinct data (and knowledge of spatial distribution/turnout patterns of POC voters) for congressional and state-level races.

In Snohomish County, about 75% as many white voters turned out in 2022 as compared to 2020, whereas it was about 55% as many Hispanics and blacks and 60% as many Asians. Among Asians, South Asians retained higher turnout levels while Southeast Asians dropped off more heavily.

Yakima County had very few D vs R legislative races in Hispanic areas. The three small, highly Hispanic cities of Grandview, Sunnyside, and Toppenish saw large swings to Smiley compared to Trump (29% on average vs 21% for the county as a whole); Smiley actually won Sunnyside outright despite being 85% Hispanic and voting 64% Biden. Turnout was down by 53% in these cities compared to 2020 whereas turnout was only down 35% countywide.

All of this suggests a strong turnout effect for Hispanics in 2022, although I wouldn't rule out a persuasion effect.

King and Pierce don't really have too many areas which are strongly of one ethnic group. I'd have to do a lot more digging there to get better information than I can do quickly.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: NewYorkExpress on May 10, 2023, 05:26:21 PM
Hilary Franz is officially in. (https://www.kuow.org/stories/hilary-franz-enters-the-race-for-washington-governor)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Rat on May 10, 2023, 08:52:23 PM
Hilary Franz is officially in. (https://www.kuow.org/stories/hilary-franz-enters-the-race-for-washington-governor)

Definitely prefer her over Ferguson.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Duke of York on May 10, 2023, 10:28:38 PM
Hilary Franz is officially in. (https://www.kuow.org/stories/hilary-franz-enters-the-race-for-washington-governor)

does she have a chance to beat Ferguson in the primary? If I could vote in the election I'd cast my ballot for Franz over Ferguson.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on May 11, 2023, 10:25:39 AM
Hilary Franz is officially in. (https://www.kuow.org/stories/hilary-franz-enters-the-race-for-washington-governor)

does she have a chance to beat Ferguson in the primary? If I could vote in the election I'd cast my ballot for Franz over Ferguson.

Doubtful in the primary. Her best bet is a fractured GOP field producing a Ferguson v. Franz general.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Rat on May 11, 2023, 03:20:51 PM
Hilary Franz is officially in. (https://www.kuow.org/stories/hilary-franz-enters-the-race-for-washington-governor)

does she have a chance to beat Ferguson in the primary? If I could vote in the election I'd cast my ballot for Franz over Ferguson.

Doubtful in the primary. Her best bet is a fractured GOP field producing a Ferguson v. Franz general.

And I assume that she probably would have a decent shot in the general, since the Republicans in the state hate Ferguson so much, they'd certainly prefer her.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: NewYorkExpress on May 15, 2023, 05:12:51 PM
Yakima Doctor Raul Garcia joins the Republican field for Governor. (https://www.chronline.com/stories/yakima-doctor-raul-garcia-will-run-for-washington-governor,319252)

Garcia joins Benton County Republican Party Chair Semi Bird in competing for GOP votes.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: NewYorkExpress on June 01, 2023, 04:53:51 PM


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Atlas Force on June 20, 2023, 12:33:45 PM




Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Duke of York on June 20, 2023, 02:01:50 PM
what are the chances Brown wins?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on June 27, 2023, 04:57:38 PM
Lot of noise that Dave Reichert will run for Governor. Dammeier is already endorsing him.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JMT on June 27, 2023, 06:21:56 PM
Lot of noise that Dave Reichert will run for Governor. Dammeier is already endorsing him.

Perhaps he will! But I’ll believe it when I see it. Reichert seems to consider a run for Governor every four years but never actually goes for it.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on June 28, 2023, 09:38:36 PM
Everyone's talking about the gubernatorial race, but the Seattle city council elections are likely to be far more interesting and impactful this year.

All 7 districts are up for grabs, the only 2 that are safe are Mosqueda and Nelson in their at-large seats.  There have been no polls thus far.

D1:  Lisa Herbold is not running again, she was part of the progressive bloc on the council but will likely be replaced by a moderate.  The three candidates who've raised the most money are:
Rob Saka, who has really ambiguous positions on everything and refuses to leave his "middle ground", may also secretly be Bruce Harrell's personal recruit in the race.
Preston Anderson, whom The Stranger absolutely hates in their classic super-immature fashion, so probably a moderate?
Stephen Brown, founder of Eltana Bagels, also fairly moderate.

D2:  Moron and definitely-not-a-member-of-Socialist-Alternative liar Tammy Morales is standing for re-election, presumably minus NTK's "Kill Joe Biden" campaign manager she was hanging out with at CHOP (only because she is an also-ran candidate herself, in D5).  Morales is getting outraised by Tanya Woo, and progressives are worried enough about Woo that they've all lined up to endorse Morales already, and The Stranger is already publishing hit pieces on Woo.  A big issue in this race will be the so-called "homeless megaplex" that the city wanted to build in the International District, which was scrapped after tons of protests.  The ID already suffers from a deluge of filth, crime, and drug use, and the stolen goods and fentanyl bazaar at 12th+Jackson was a big battleground for mayor Harrell's efforts to clear out criminal homeless junkies from the neighborhood.  Morales supported the megaplex and opposed Harrell's sweeps and police presence.  Woo feels differently.  That's the race right there.

D3:  After barely surviving recall by 310 votes, Kshama Sawant read the writing on the wall and decided to retire.  There are three main candidates running to replace her.  Joy Hollingsworth is probably the favorite, checking all the right identity boxes and saying all the right progressive bromides while steadfastly avoiding taking any strong stances on anything, just "re-evaluate, re-evaluate, re-evaluate".  Andrew Ashiofu also ticks all the right identity boxes, but unlike Hollingsworth, he's openly taking a position against encampment sweeps.  Alex Hudson is just a walking talking mouthpiece for The Urbanist and sounds like one of those annoying #BanCars Urbanism Twitter feeds.

D4:  Alex Pedersen was particularly upset and incensed about the protestors who attacked his house and threatened his family during the George Floyd protests in 2020, and he seemed shook ever since, so it's no surprise he's not running again.  Pedersen was one of the most moderate council members, and is likely to be replaced by another moderate, Ken Wilson, who made a good run of it against the invincible Teresa Mosqueda in 2021 and is now running on his engineering background.  Wilson's main opposition is Ron Davis, who is competing with Hudson to be the most annoying urbanist imaginable.  We had a hilarious clownshow candidate in UW student Matthew Mitnick who ran as a socialist, and like so many socialists, was a horrible and abusive asshole behind the scenes, except this is weirder because his campaign staff was a bunch of high schoolers.  He got a bunch of Green Party endorsements, and the DSA offered him its endorsement, but when he refused to pay any of his campaign staff, they unionized, and rejected the endorsement on his behalf.  Sadly, he has since withdrawn so the fun is over and it's on to what will surely be a boring race.

D5:  Moderate and council stalwart Debora Juarez also resigned, and likely has her eye on higher office.  The top fundraiser are Nilu Jenks, Cathy Moore and Shane Macomber.  All the candidates say kinda the same things, but in a recent Seattle Times questionnaire, Jenks took leftie stances on everything, Cathy supported the mayor but wanted to keep drugs legal, and Macomber just refused to take any stance on anything.  Not a great crop of candidates.

D6:  Dan Strauss got lucky in 2019 by drawing the notoriously corrupt exiled former councilmember Heidi Wills as an opponent.  He isn't so lucky this time, as he gets local businessman Pete Hanning.  Now I know anecdotally that Hanning is an asshole, since he used to own The Red Door, which I frequented when I lived in Fremont.  But I would vote for him anyway if I still lived there, because Strauss is also a condescending, lying sack of s--t.  The big issue in this race is that Strauss supported CHOP and, after running on increasing police funding, decided he wanted to defund the police in 2020.  Now that defunding the police is the most politically toxic position in America, Strauss is trying to gaslight everyone that he never wanted to defund the police and always wanted to increase police funding.  It's an obvious lie, but voters are dumb.  After all they voted for Heidi Wills four years ago.  Strauss also promised to clean up Ballard, but it's still infested with crime, and he votes with progressives on the council on homelessness issues.  He's positioned well to hold his seat, but it will be an interesting race.

D7:  Andrew Lewis is one of the most pathetic councilmembers I've ever seen, flip-flopping all over the place and lying constantly.  Most recently he made a big show of supporting the measure to re-criminalize smoking fentanyl in public, but then a bunch of activists yelled at him, and he surprised everyone by casting the deciding vote against the measure.  Our local socialist activists have always known that they can easily bully him into doing whatever they want.  Annoyingly, though, he doesn't really have any serious competition yet.


My intuition is that the council ends up being:

1) Moderate (any of Saka/Anderson/Brown)
2) Far-left (Morales)
3) Progressive (Hollingsworth)
4) Moderate (Wilson)
5) Progressive (Jenks)
6) Moderate (Hanning)
7) Far-left (Lewis -- has no principles personally, but is bullied into being a puppet for far-left activists)
AL1) Mosqueda (progressive)
AL2) Nelson (moderate)

Woo has a real shot in D2 at flipping the seat to create a 5-4 moderate majority, which would be amazing and a huge boost for Bruce Harrell's ambitions to clean up this city.  Otherwise, most likely whoever wins in D5 would end up being the swing vote.  I don't think Strauss survives.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on June 30, 2023, 10:59:49 PM
Dave Reichert has filed with the PDC to run for governor.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on July 07, 2023, 11:31:20 AM
Garcia has dropped out of the Governor's race and endorsed Reichert. He will run against Cantwell.

It seems the Governor's race will likely be Ferguson vs Reichert. Reichert is about the best the GOP can do here. My initial guess is Ferguson wins 53-47.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Oryxslayer on July 07, 2023, 12:05:26 PM
Garcia has dropped out of the Governor's race and endorsed Reichert. He will run against Cantwell.

It seems the Governor's race will likely be Ferguson vs Reichert. Reichert is about the best the GOP can do here. My initial guess is Ferguson wins 53-47.

Only issue with this is if both JHB  and Reichart run, the field is divided enough for an eastern crazy type to have a clear shot towards losing the runoff in November.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on July 07, 2023, 12:11:36 PM
Garcia has dropped out of the Governor's race and endorsed Reichert. He will run against Cantwell.

It seems the Governor's race will likely be Ferguson vs Reichert. Reichert is about the best the GOP can do here. My initial guess is Ferguson wins 53-47.

Only issue with this is if both JHB  and Reichart run, the field is divided enough for an eastern crazy type to have a clear shot towards losing the runoff in November.

I doubt JHB runs at this point. I've heard nothing about the possibility in some time. There's also a very strong emphasis within the state party about unifying early to prevent a Culp situation.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Benjamin Frank on July 08, 2023, 06:18:15 PM
Since there are several articles posted on Dave Reichert along the lines of 'man who nabbed Green River killer...' Not that he's the only police officer who struggled to catch a serial killer, but Dave Reichert did a horrible job catching Gary Ridgway. Ridgway should have been caught years earlier and, as a senior police officer, Reichert's tunnel vision on another suspect impeded the investigation.

The reason I bring this up is because 'nabbing the Green River killer' is Reichert's sole claim to fame and he's been dishonestly playing it up for years.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: coloradocowboi on July 10, 2023, 01:11:48 PM
General MacArthur sounds like his namesake when he talks about "socialism" lol

But how serious is Dave Reichert's candidacy? Surely the best anyone in the GOP could do here these days is what 55-45? Isn't he pro-life?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on July 10, 2023, 01:35:31 PM
General MacArthur sounds like his namesake when he talks about "socialism" lol

But how serious is Dave Reichert's candidacy? Surely the best anyone in the GOP could do here these days is what 55-45? Isn't he pro-life?

Well, someone in the mold of Kim Wyman or her republican predecessor (Sam Reed) could even win - narrowly. It's another matter how many such politicians remain in Republican party...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Born to Slay. Forced to Work. on July 10, 2023, 02:33:22 PM
General MacArthur sounds like his namesake when he talks about "socialism" lol

But how serious is Dave Reichert's candidacy? Surely the best anyone in the GOP could do here these days is what 55-45? Isn't he pro-life?

Well, someone in the mold of Kim Wyman or her republican predecessor (Sam Reed) could even win - narrowly. It's another matter how many such politicians remain in Republican party...

The issue is that, nowadays, there may be politicians like this in the Republican Party, but if enough of them exist to overcome a more Trumpy candidate in the blanket primary.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on July 10, 2023, 03:00:56 PM
General MacArthur sounds like his namesake when he talks about "socialism" lol

But how serious is Dave Reichert's candidacy? Surely the best anyone in the GOP could do here these days is what 55-45? Isn't he pro-life?

Well, someone in the mold of Kim Wyman or her republican predecessor (Sam Reed) could even win - narrowly. It's another matter how many such politicians remain in Republican party...

The issue is that, nowadays, there may be politicians like this in the Republican Party, but if enough of them exist to overcome a more Trumpy candidate in the blanket primary.

They actually can and do make the general, but they don't win regardless. I know of at least four anti-Trump, pro-choice R legislative candidates who made the general election last year, and all lost with maybe a four-point bump above Smiley.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on July 10, 2023, 03:43:12 PM
General MacArthur sounds like his namesake when he talks about "socialism" lol

But how serious is Dave Reichert's candidacy? Surely the best anyone in the GOP could do here these days is what 55-45? Isn't he pro-life?

Well, someone in the mold of Kim Wyman or her republican predecessor (Sam Reed) could even win - narrowly. It's another matter how many such politicians remain in Republican party...

The issue is that, nowadays, there may be politicians like this in the Republican Party, but if enough of them exist to overcome a more Trumpy candidate in the blanket primary.

They actually can and do make the general, but they don't win regardless. I know of at least four anti-Trump, pro-choice R legislative candidates who made the general election last year, and all lost with maybe a four-point bump above Smiley.

Wyman won in 2020 nevertheless.... And rather convincingly (7+% margin). Despite state going heavily for Biden and most other Democratic candidates. If Massachusetts could go for Baker, Maryland - for Hogan and with Vermont - still easily going for Scott, Washington state can as well....


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on July 10, 2023, 04:03:05 PM
General MacArthur sounds like his namesake when he talks about "socialism" lol

But how serious is Dave Reichert's candidacy? Surely the best anyone in the GOP could do here these days is what 55-45? Isn't he pro-life?

Well, someone in the mold of Kim Wyman or her republican predecessor (Sam Reed) could even win - narrowly. It's another matter how many such politicians remain in Republican party...

The issue is that, nowadays, there may be politicians like this in the Republican Party, but if enough of them exist to overcome a more Trumpy candidate in the blanket primary.

They actually can and do make the general, but they don't win regardless. I know of at least four anti-Trump, pro-choice R legislative candidates who made the general election last year, and all lost with maybe a four-point bump above Smiley.

Wyman won in 2020 nevertheless.... And rather convincingly (7+% margin). Despite state going eavily for Biden and most other Democratic candidates. If Massachusetts could go for Baker, Maryland - for Hogan and with Vermont - still easily going for Scott, Washington state can as well....

It only worked for Wyman because she was an incumbent running for what many view as an anti-partisan or at least non-partisan office in practice. Her opponent left a lot of be desired, as well. Tarleton's voters guide statement isn't too far off from what MAGA-types would be claiming today.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on July 11, 2023, 05:27:30 PM
I’d say that Reichert will probably end up between 45 and 47% if he makes the top two. There’s still some goodwill left for him, but there’s also a clear limit to how many voters are really persuadable, and it takes a lot for Republicans to get close. If he tried to basically run as a moderate, he’d risk not making the top two due to not having enough of a base of support.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: smoltchanov on July 12, 2023, 12:52:06 AM
I’d say that Reichert will probably end up between 45 and 47% if he makes the top two. There’s still some goodwill left for him, but there’s also a clear limit to how many voters are really persuadable, and it takes a lot for Republicans to get close. If he tried to basically run as a moderate, he’d risk not making the top two due to not having enough of a base of support.

I generally agree, though i always was (and IS) adamantedly opposed to "one-party system" in any part of any country (i am a "democrat", but -  not "Democrat"), so i deplore both situations in, say, Wyoming AND on Manhattan or in Bay area. The same applies here...


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: NewYorkExpress on July 12, 2023, 01:31:13 PM
Nick Brown, who resigned as U.S Attorney for Western Washington back in June has entered the race for Attorney General. (https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/former-u-s-attorney-nick-brown-to-run-for-wa-ag/)

The field for Attorney General is now as follows:

Former U.S Attorney for Western Washington Nick Brown (D)
State Senator Manka Dhingra (D)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on July 20, 2023, 10:58:26 AM
Presented without comment. (https://www.heraldnet.com/opinion/editorial-rohla-for-everett-katims-for-edmonds-school-boards/)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: ottermax on July 20, 2023, 12:17:09 PM
Presented without comment. (https://www.heraldnet.com/opinion/editorial-rohla-for-everett-katims-for-edmonds-school-boards/)

Congrats!


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on July 22, 2023, 05:57:22 PM
I picked an interesting time to watch Survivor: The Australian outback for the first time considering that Nick Brown was a contestant and I never even heard of him prior or knew he was appointed a US Attorney within the last few years. And I thought Elisabeth Fularski/Hasselbeck was the one who went on to do the biggest things.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 02, 2023, 10:32:25 AM
I didn't do quite as well as I'd hoped, but I made it through the primary.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Roll Roons on August 02, 2023, 10:39:58 AM
I didn't do quite as well as I'd hoped, but I made it through the primary.

Congrats! Best of luck in the general.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Duke of York on August 02, 2023, 10:47:13 AM
I didn't do quite as well as I'd hoped, but I made it through the primary.

what are you running for?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 02, 2023, 01:44:20 PM
I didn't do quite as well as I'd hoped, but I made it through the primary.

what are you running for?

An open school board seat for my city.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 04, 2023, 06:38:17 PM
Map of the three-way Snohomish County Auditor primary from Tuesday. Technically nonpartisan, but effectively D vs R vs I, where the Independent is the incumbent and the Republican is a hardcore election denier who was primaried by a moderate R last year. The D and I advanced:

(Image Link) (http://maps.rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/2023-SnoCo-Auditor-Prim.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 07, 2023, 03:51:08 PM
Spokane mayor primary map:

() (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_07_08_23_3_50_29.png)

Tim Archer ran to the right of Woodward, so you'd expect his vote to mostly flow to her.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 08, 2023, 02:06:22 PM
A certain aforementioned primary:

() (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_08_08_23_2_05_36.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on August 11, 2023, 12:56:01 PM
We have election results for Seattle city council.  I'll quote my old post for context on each race and provide the results.

D1:  Lisa Herbold is not running again, she was part of the progressive bloc on the council but will likely be replaced by a moderate.  The three candidates who've raised the most money are:
Rob Saka, who has really ambiguous positions on everything and refuses to leave his "middle ground", may also secretly be Bruce Harrell's personal recruit in the race.
Preston Anderson, whom The Stranger absolutely hates in their classic super-immature fashion, so probably a moderate?
Stephen Brown, founder of Eltana Bagels, also fairly moderate.

Rob Saka made it through with 24% but the primary winner was Maren Costa, who got 33%.  Maren is a pretty generic progressive urbanist.  Phil Tavel, a more conservative candidate who was Herbold's opponent in 2019, got 20%, so the big question is where his supporters will go.  If Saka skews more moderate he probably picks them up and gets to 44%.  I'd say that's more likely than Costa getting them, so I'd label Saka the favorite despite his lower numbers.


D2:  Moron and definitely-not-a-member-of-Socialist-Alternative liar Tammy Morales is standing for re-election, presumably minus NTK's "Kill Joe Biden" campaign manager she was hanging out with at CHOP (only because she is an also-ran candidate herself, in D5).  Morales is getting outraised by Tanya Woo, and progressives are worried enough about Woo that they've all lined up to endorse Morales already, and The Stranger is already publishing hit pieces on Woo.  A big issue in this race will be the so-called "homeless megaplex" that the city wanted to build in the International District, which was scrapped after tons of protests.  The ID already suffers from a deluge of filth, crime, and drug use, and the stolen goods and fentanyl bazaar at 12th+Jackson was a big battleground for mayor Harrell's efforts to clear out criminal homeless junkies from the neighborhood.  Morales supported the megaplex and opposed Harrell's sweeps and police presence.  Woo feels differently.  That's the race right there.

Tammy Morales got 52%, and Green Party idiot Margaret Elisabeth got an additional 5%.  Tammy Woo got 43% but she has a big hill to climb.  Morales probably gets re-elected.


D3:  After barely surviving recall by 310 votes, Kshama Sawant read the writing on the wall and decided to retire.  There are three main candidates running to replace her.  Joy Hollingsworth is probably the favorite, checking all the right identity boxes and saying all the right progressive bromides while steadfastly avoiding taking any strong stances on anything, just "re-evaluate, re-evaluate, re-evaluate".  Andrew Ashiofu also ticks all the right identity boxes, but unlike Hollingsworth, he's openly taking a position against encampment sweeps.  Alex Hudson is just a walking talking mouthpiece for The Urbanist and sounds like one of those annoying #BanCars Urbanism Twitter feeds.

Hollingsworth and Hudson both got 37%.  Pretty generic race without much in the way of stakes.  Both will be idealistic progressives who vote to raise taxes every year and let homeless junkies ruin our city.  Neither will be anywhere close to as bad as Kshama Sawant.

D4:  Alex Pedersen was particularly upset and incensed about the protestors who attacked his house and threatened his family during the George Floyd protests in 2020, and he seemed shook ever since, so it's no surprise he's not running again.  Pedersen was one of the most moderate council members, and is likely to be replaced by another moderate, Ken Wilson, who made a good run of it against the invincible Teresa Mosqueda in 2021 and is now running on his engineering background.  Wilson's main opposition is Ron Davis, who is competing with Hudson to be the most annoying urbanist imaginable.  We had a hilarious clownshow candidate in UW student Matthew Mitnick who ran as a socialist, and like so many socialists, was a horrible and abusive asshole behind the scenes, except this is weirder because his campaign staff was a bunch of high schoolers.  He got a bunch of Green Party endorsements, and the DSA offered him its endorsement, but when he refused to pay any of his campaign staff, they unionized, and rejected the endorsement on his behalf.  Sadly, he has since withdrawn so the fun is over and it's on to what will surely be a boring race.

I thought Ken Wilson was going to make it through, but he only got 21%.  Instead, Maritza Rivera, who is very pro-Harrell, got 32%.  Ron Davis got 45% but you have to think almost all the Wilson voters will move to Rivera's camp, getting her to 53%.


D5:  Moderate and council stalwart Debora Juarez also resigned, and likely has her eye on higher office.  The top fundraiser are Nilu Jenks, Cathy Moore and Shane Macomber.  All the candidates say kinda the same things, but in a recent Seattle Times questionnaire, Jenks took leftie stances on everything, Cathy supported the mayor but wanted to keep drugs legal, and Macomber just refused to take any stance on anything.  Not a great crop of candidates.

Cathy Moore got 30% and The Stranger's candidate ChrisTiana ObeySumner got 24%.  Jenks only got 18%.  Feel pretty good about Moore's chances here.  ObeySumner is a generic activist who says we can't stop homeless people from committing crimes or killing themselves with fentanyl until we address the root causes of whatever.


D6:  Dan Strauss got lucky in 2019 by drawing the notoriously corrupt exiled former councilmember Heidi Wills as an opponent.  He isn't so lucky this time, as he gets local businessman Pete Hanning.  Now I know anecdotally that Hanning is an asshole, since he used to own The Red Door, which I frequented when I lived in Fremont.  But I would vote for him anyway if I still lived there, because Strauss is also a condescending, lying sack of s--t.  The big issue in this race is that Strauss supported CHOP and, after running on increasing police funding, decided he wanted to defund the police in 2020.  Now that defunding the police is the most politically toxic position in America, Strauss is trying to gaslight everyone that he never wanted to defund the police and always wanted to increase police funding.  It's an obvious lie, but voters are dumb.  After all they voted for Heidi Wills four years ago.  Strauss also promised to clean up Ballard, but it's still infested with crime, and he votes with progressives on the council on homelessness issues.  He's positioned well to hold his seat, but it will be an interesting race.

Strauss got 52% and Hanning only got 30%, this race is over.



D7:  Andrew Lewis is one of the most pathetic councilmembers I've ever seen, flip-flopping all over the place and lying constantly.  Most recently he made a big show of supporting the measure to re-criminalize smoking fentanyl in public, but then a bunch of activists yelled at him, and he surprised everyone by casting the deciding vote against the measure.  Our local socialist activists have always known that they can easily bully him into doing whatever they want.  Annoyingly, though, he doesn't really have any serious competition yet.

Lewis only got 43%.  His opponent is Bob Kettle, whom I've never heard of.  But Lewis seems weak.


So the potential council would be:
D1) 55% Saka, 45% Costa
D2) 90% Morales, 10% Woo
D3) 50% Hollingsworth, 50% Hudson
D4) 65% Rivera, 35% Davis
D5) 65% Moore, 35% ObeySumner
D6) 95% Strauss, 5% Hanning
D7) 60% Kettle, 40% Lewis

Overall pretty bad results IMO.  Morales and Strauss are both going to make it through to re-election, and along with the D3 rep and Teresa Mosqueda that's a 4-person voting bloc in favor of turning this city into Portland.  We'd need to run the table with Saka/Rivera/Moore/Kettle winning, and get lucky that all 4 stick with the mayor, to avoid another two years of gridlock.

The only other chance we have is the special election for Teresa Mosqueda's seat after she moves up to King County Council.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on August 11, 2023, 01:06:46 PM
Overall pretty mixed results, but at least there is some hope for Seattle to not fall into being controlled by people appealing to GMac. I’m especially happy that it seems like Margaret Elizabeth did so well as a cash-strapped, ad hoc type of campaign. Hopefully the runoff has much stronger turnout.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on August 11, 2023, 10:12:26 PM
I actually now live in a jurisdiction in which I can vote in RI’s election. I moved too recently for my address change to be reflected in the primary, but it should apply to the November election.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 13, 2023, 11:25:51 AM
The WA GOP foolishly endorsed Joe Kent yesterday. Congrats to MGP.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Born to Slay. Forced to Work. on August 13, 2023, 01:31:09 PM
The WA GOP foolishly endorsed Joe Kent yesterday. Congrats to MGP.

We love to see it


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 14, 2023, 09:03:57 PM
D1:  Lisa Herbold is not running again, she was part of the progressive bloc on the council but will likely be replaced by a moderate.  The three candidates who've raised the most money are:
Rob Saka, who has really ambiguous positions on everything and refuses to leave his "middle ground", may also secretly be Bruce Harrell's personal recruit in the race.
Preston Anderson, whom The Stranger absolutely hates in their classic super-immature fashion, so probably a moderate?
Stephen Brown, founder of Eltana Bagels, also fairly moderate.

Rob Saka made it through with 24% but the primary winner was Maren Costa, who got 33%.  Maren is a pretty generic progressive urbanist.  Phil Tavel, a more conservative candidate who was Herbold's opponent in 2019, got 20%, so the big question is where his supporters will go.  If Saka skews more moderate he probably picks them up and gets to 44%.  I'd say that's more likely than Costa getting them, so I'd label Saka the favorite despite his lower numbers.

All of Costa and Saka's primary opponents issued a joint endorsement of Costa. (https://www.thestranger.com/elections-2023/2023/08/14/79121783/in-a-surprise-turn-all-rival-candidates-rally-around-progressive-maren-costa-for-general-election)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Canis on August 14, 2023, 11:55:17 PM
I actually now live in a jurisdiction in which I can vote in RI’s election. I moved too recently for my address change to be reflected in the primary, but it should apply to the November election.

Are you gonna vote for him?


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on August 17, 2023, 12:32:23 AM
() (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_17_08_23_12_31_45.png)

() (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_17_08_23_7_32_32.png)

() (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_18_08_23_10_29_53.png)

() (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_18_08_23_12_58_53.png)

() (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_18_08_23_1_18_20.png)

() (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_18_08_23_1_28_17.png)

() (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_18_08_23_1_34_05.png)

() (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_18_08_23_2_05_38.png)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on August 22, 2023, 03:21:57 AM
I actually now live in a jurisdiction in which I can vote in RI’s election. I moved too recently for my address change to be reflected in the primary, but it should apply to the November election.

Are you gonna vote for him?

I’ll keep that to myself for now, at some point I’ll reveal how I vote.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on September 06, 2023, 05:32:36 PM
Bad news for MacArthur:

Quote from: https://crosscut.com/politics/2023/09/poll-seattle-voters-want-new-direction-city-council
Still, when asked whether they were more likely to support a progressive or centrist candidate, 49% of all respondents said they want a progressive versus 37% who want to vote for a centrist and 14% who had no opinion.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: NewYorkExpress on September 11, 2023, 03:04:46 PM
Bob Ferguson has recieved the endorsement of Jay Inslee. (https://www.king5.com/article/news/politics/state-politics/attorney-general-bob-ferguson-officially-announces-campaign-for-governor-run-washington/281-7e3b198c-9619-4616-a7c7-55d3f9626f7a)

Quote
The Washington gubernatorial race officially has another candidate in the mix. Washington Attorney General Bob Ferguson made his campaign official on Saturday, several months after announcing an "exploratory" campaign.

“My goal is to work hard for the people, we have a hardworking state, they deserve hardworking governor that focuses on them and their concerns," Ferguson said. "That’s what I’ve done as attorney general, that’s what I’m going to do as governor.”


He held three events across the state on Sept. 9 to announce his run for governor with stops in Spokane and Pasco, ending the night in Seattle.

Gov. Jay Inslee endorsed Ferguson on Saturday evening at the campaign announcement party, held at Washington Hall.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Rat on September 12, 2023, 12:53:43 PM
Bob Ferguson has recieved the endorsement of Jay Inslee. (https://www.king5.com/article/news/politics/state-politics/attorney-general-bob-ferguson-officially-announces-campaign-for-governor-run-washington/281-7e3b198c-9619-4616-a7c7-55d3f9626f7a)

Quote
The Washington gubernatorial race officially has another candidate in the mix. Washington Attorney General Bob Ferguson made his campaign official on Saturday, several months after announcing an "exploratory" campaign.

“My goal is to work hard for the people, we have a hardworking state, they deserve hardworking governor that focuses on them and their concerns," Ferguson said. "That’s what I’ve done as attorney general, that’s what I’m going to do as governor.”


He held three events across the state on Sept. 9 to announce his run for governor with stops in Spokane and Pasco, ending the night in Seattle.

Gov. Jay Inslee endorsed Ferguson on Saturday evening at the campaign announcement party, held at Washington Hall.


Very disappointing, I was hoping he'd endorse Franz. She's obviously a much more environmentally focused candidate and seems like a better fit as a successor to Inslee in that regard.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: prag_prog on September 23, 2023, 12:58:54 AM
I spent sometime in Washington recently and oh my god, the Uber/Lyft prices are freaking insane. Like absolutely insane...I have spent time in lot of states across US but I never saw Uber/Lyft prices this high in any other state. It felt like they were almost double the prices I pay in NY/NJ. My ride from airport to friend's place (35-40 minute drive with no traffic) cost me $75 before any tips. Then I also had to take couple of other small 10-15 min trips and each of them cost me like $30-35. I never saw prices like this in NY,NJ,MN (states where I usually spend lot of time).


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on October 09, 2023, 03:02:13 PM
JHB is running for Commissioner of Public Lands. Crowded field so far: 5 D's and 2 R's now.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 04, 2023, 02:12:35 PM


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Left Wing on November 07, 2023, 11:35:50 PM
Currently conservatives lead on all seven Seattle City Council races, but the progressive shift with late ballots should flip at least four of them to the progressive column.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 09, 2023, 05:27:35 PM
Derek Kilmer announces he won't run for re-election in WA-06. Rumor is that Hilary Franz may drop out of the Governor's race to run for his seat.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Crumpets on November 09, 2023, 07:27:07 PM
My city council race (Seattle District 7) narrowed from Lewis being down by 11 to being down by 7 after the most recent ballot dump. I don't know how much more he'll be able to choose the gap, but that's a decent shift.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on November 10, 2023, 01:06:15 AM
This was an immense blowout for progressives and especially Seattle DSA, just two victories is just atrocious.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on November 10, 2023, 03:43:04 AM
RI, turns out your opponent in the election was another atlas user (who has like a dozen posts, but I found out just now)

won't say who in case they want to remain anonymous, but I think that's a first.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: RI on November 10, 2023, 03:15:59 PM
RI, turns out your opponent in the election was another atlas user (who has like a dozen posts, but I found out just now)

won't say who in case they want to remain anonymous, but I think that's a first.

Yes, he and I have talked about it IRL. We'll be making a post on it in the coming days.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Xing on November 10, 2023, 03:35:01 PM
It turns out that I didn’t update my address in time to be able to vote in RI’s election. I likely would have voted for him had I been able to change my address sooner (which I thought I had), and if it turns out that his race comes down to the wire, I’ll be kicking myself.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: JMT on November 11, 2023, 02:27:11 PM


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: warandwar on November 11, 2023, 07:21:39 PM
This was an immense blowout for progressives and especially Seattle DSA, just two victories is just atrocious.



tbf Seattle DSA hasn't won a single race for City Council.


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on November 11, 2023, 08:48:35 PM
This was an immense blowout for progressives and especially Seattle DSA, just two victories is just atrocious.



tbf Seattle DSA hasn't won a single race for City Council.
And there’s much to discuss over it, but not one after all this time and energy to the most left wing city on the east coast, where a party much more radical and cash-strapped won handily electorally and otherwise for a decade outside common expectations? Yeah, there’s little excuse here.



Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GeneralMacArthur on November 12, 2023, 11:54:27 PM
I haven't actually been following this that closely as I have been pretty satisfied with the results of the Harrell administration even with the progressive city council getting in his way, so it doesn't feel as critical as 2019 (plus Sawant resigned).  That said does anyone have any estimate of what % of the vote is in and when we would expect the rest to be counted?

My baseline read of this is that:

D1 = flip to Harrell ally (moderate?)
D2 = HP hold
D3 = not really a flip but a much more sane person than Sawant, plus seemingly another Harrell ally
D4 = only potential progressive gain?
D5 = moderate hold
D6 = Strauss survives, but he had to flip-flop on his entire ideology and pretend to be a staunch Harrell ally to do it
D7 = potential flip to moderate?

Then there's another story here which is that with Mosqueda resigning to join the King County Council, her replacement in the AL seat will be voted on by the rest of the council.  Which based on these results probably means we get another moderate or at least a Harrell ally.

All in all this almost certainly means Bruce Harrell now has the city council majority he needs to fully enact his agenda.  Or at least get it started before he has to face re-election in 2025 -- but Harrell's polling numbers were banana republic dictator high last time I checked -- high 60s or low 70s -- so I don't see him being in any real danger of losing re-election.

Good times are here in Seattle folks :)


Title: Re: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
Post by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on December 06, 2023, 07:00:02 PM
RI, turns out your opponent in the election was another atlas user (who has like a dozen posts, but I found out just now)

won't say who in case they want to remain anonymous, but I think that's a first.

Yes, he and I have talked about it IRL. We'll be making a post on it in the coming days.
Is this coming?