Title: Most likely McCain win without Ohio
Post by: Angel of Death on June 23, 2008, 10:21:28 AM
I assume that it would involve him winning Michigan?
Title: Re: Most likely McCain win without Ohio
Post by: CPT MikeyMike on June 23, 2008, 12:41:55 PM
Without MI...
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273-265 McCain - This is less plausible (right now) IMO. McCain would have to win CO and WI and I don't see that right now.
Unfortunately I think, without Ohio, Michigan is the most plausible way...
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271-267 McCain. The assumption here is that Obama wins OH, CO and IA (he will probably win the last two to begin with). Nevada would have to stay in the McCain column with NH and MI going to McCain.
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273-265 McCain - This is less plausible (right now) IMO. McCain would have to win CO and WI and I don't see that right now.
Unfortunately I think, without Ohio, Michigan is the most plausible way...
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271-267 McCain. The assumption here is that Obama wins OH, CO and IA (he will probably win the last two to begin with). Nevada would have to stay in the McCain column with NH and MI going to McCain.
Title: Re: Most likely McCain win without Ohio
Post by: Padfoot on June 24, 2008, 01:46:28 AM
I assume that it would involve him winning Michigan?
I think it would have to. Either that or he'd have to win Pennsylvania which, despite the wishful thinking of Republicans during the primary, appears to have moved into the leans Obama category.
Title: Re: Most likely McCain win without Ohio
Post by: Jacobtm on June 24, 2008, 01:53:28 AM
The problem is that Ohio is pretty independent of Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico, all of which seem pretty safe for Obama. So if he loses Ohio, and Obama picks up those 4 states, none of which Kerry carried, it'd take winning Michigan and Pennsylvania to get the magic number. I feel like enough nasty ads against Obama really making him seem out there and threatening to traditional values could swing Michigan and Pennsylvania, but I just don't know if McCain will go for it.
Title: Re: Most likely McCain win without Ohio
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on June 25, 2008, 01:45:17 PM
Probably this (273-265):
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