Talk Elections

true.  ill say he wins 2 or 3 counties.

im still amazed at how crappy kerry did in oklahoma.

No.

Agree, although he will only win a couple.

Oklahoma in 2004 was just horrible for the Democrats. Not only did Kerry lose every county, which is terrible in its own right, but Brad Carson lost to an extremist even though he was the most conservative candidates we've run in decades.

Hopefully we'll win Cleveland County since it has a large University.

He won't. He'll win a few, but they'll just be the few that Gore won.

This isn't much of a prediction though, since Kerry's shutout was a fluke, as pointed out, even Gore won a bunch.

Cleveland was similar to the state average in 2004; I'm not sure whether this is due to the university or that part of the county is suburban Oklahoma City.

Obama should be in the hunt for McIntosh.  It's 15% Injun, although that probably is not the reason it was close in 2004.

se.

Oklahoma is most likely going to be Obama's worst, or second worst, state, depending on how Utah likes him.  I'm not quite so sure about Obama winning a county here, he just got *crushed* during the primaries and I don't think Hillary even tried very hard herself.

Obama is going to be absolutely destroyed in Oklahoma.  No, he will not win any counties. 

One big question here; will the new voters of 2004 turnout this year [qm]

Very likely, but no certainty.

Cimarron County will of course be won by Bob Barr. :P

Obama will probably take most of the Gore counties.  The Kerry shutout was just a fluke.  McCain is going to get, at most, 60% in Oklahoma.  Currently, McCain is leading 52-38 which is low for Mac in my opinion, but about right for Obama.

Still, even though Obama will win roughly 10 counties give or take, it will still be a Bush-Gore sized blowout.

Probably. OKC is probably out of the question, but Obama managed to actually win the county it is in.

What's the argument exactly, for why Obama will outperform Kerry in Oklahoma?  Is it that Bush's Texan roots are more appealing in OK than Obama is unappealing? (if that makes sense)

I suppose Oklahoma is one of the few primary states Kerry lost as well, although by a much smaller election it was a much less contested race by that point.  I predict that Oklahoma will be Obama's worst state personally, but I feel that perhaps Utah could win out.  I mean, he's not a New England liberal, but being an inner-city Chicago black politician isn't exactly high-flying in these parts either, right?

What people often forget is that Obama isn't a much worse candidate than Kerry in most of the states they expect him to underperform badly. Even in places like Oklahoma you have a number of liberals or total yellow dogs. A negro isn't really THAT much worse than someone like Kerry.

I mean take Mississippi otherwise. Can Obama underperform Kerry among whites? I'm pretty sure the 14% of whites going for Kerry are probably the few Harrys in the state (or the type of voter who may be rather right wing but wouldn't vote for a Republican if you pointed a gun to their and would vote for "Osama bin Laden (D)", like most of Elliot County, Kentucky.)

Anyway I think Al nailed this in his classic vague way. I expect Obama to fall somewhere between Gore and Kerry, and thus take a handful of counties like Gore did.

I like your prognosis Jeff. Besides, the macro-environment isn't as favorable for McCain in 2008 as it was for Bush in 2004. That said, I notice your economy was one of the better ones in terms of growth (4.0%) in 2007

In 2004, only 16% of Oklahoman's cited the economy as their most important issue (29% cited moral values; 20% terrorism) and they broke for Kerry 78/22

Dave

That is one thing that Oklahoma can say, is that our economy hasn't been hit near as hard as that of other states.  In fact, our economy is rapidly growing and will only get bigger thanks to the new NBA team in Oklahoma City.

BRTD is correct (wow, did I say that??) in that Oklahoma does have some pure yellow dogs.  Sure they are outnumbered by the Blue Dogs, but they are numerous and they are more prominent in the eastern half of the state.  Remember, in Oklahoma, a deep red state, there are more registered Democrats than registered Republicans.  Its just that about 60% of the Democrats are blue dogs or DLCers and don't hesitate to vote for a Republican if they put up a better candidate than their own party (See: 2004 Bush v. Kerry and Coburn v. Carson).  In other words, they vote the person and not the party.

In what alternate universe is Tom Coburn a better candidate than anyone for any public office?

Or Bush for that matter.

Bump.

Obama did worse than Kerry.  So much for the 2004 "fluke".

It would have been a close race with Hillary!

In Oklahoma? Maybe closer... by like 5%. :P

McCain vs. Hillary would have been like 57-43, I think.

There was no fluke.

A state which is represented in the Senate by two nutjobs like Inhoffe and Coburn shows how inadequate is sometimes the word ''hopeless''.

Hillary might even have won a county! :P