Talk Elections

The German Press is looking very close on the Primaries in the US. But i can not get any information, who could be the vice president if Kerry makes the race.

Tell me what u think about it.

1. Bayh
2. Edwards
3. Nelson
4. Bredesen
5. Richardson

I would take edwards. may be  he could take one or two states in the south.

No, he can't.  Kerry doesn't have a chance in the south no matter the VP, which is why I take Bayh.  The midwestern moderate strategy.

Bayh doesn't want it.

Not true; Bayh said he doesn't want the presidency because it woudl take him away from his family for 2 whole years, but being VP is a 'different story', in Bayh's own words.

I still think he wants the head job.

Well, he might when his kids are grown up.

He has time so he will problely take a pass on running this time.

John Edwards seems to be the popular choice but he's indicating that he isn't interested in being VP.

I've also heard rumblings about Bill Richardson (Gov of New Mexico).  Personally I think he'd be a great choice.  He was US Ambassador to the UN, Secretary of Energy, a 4-time Nobel Peace Prize nom, and a great Gov.  Throw in the fact that he's from the Southwest and Hispanic and he's a winner.

Evan Bayh has been mentioned.  He's young, enthusiastic, and a moderate.  He'd help in Indiana but probably couldn't deliver the state.  He helps the ticket to be more moderate.

Dick Gephardt has been mentioned.  He has experience, would bring solid union support, and would unify the Democratic "Old Guard".  Truthfully though, Gephardt doesn't add to the ticket.  This would only be a "thank you" nod from the party for years of service.

Mark Warner, Gov of VA, has been mentioned.  But I think mainly because he's a Democrat, from the South, and tall (he can stand next to Kerry and not look like a midget).

John Breaux, Senator from Louisiana, has been mentioned.  But again, I think it is because he's a southerner and he's retiring this year.  So I doubt he'd take the nom.

Dianne Feinstein, Senator of CA, has been mentioned.  But mainly because CA could be a battleground and Feinstein was one the first to endorse Kerry.

There are others ... but I'd say these are the tops names right now.

I think Bayh would take it if it was offered to him.

Enjoy the silence while you can mein freund, after Super Tueday you'll hear more than enough about this to drive you nuts...

Gruesse nach Hamburg! I've got family over there (my parents are both German) and visit it occasionally. Great city, really like it.

Anyway, In my opinion John Edwards has the best chance. He would provide Kerry with something of a balance - Kerry is a liberal, Edwards a moderate; Kerry a northerner, Edwards a southener; and so on. Of course the Democrats are highly unlikely to win a single Southern state, but the question here is national unity, and a Kerry/Edwards ticket would definitely convey that.

Otherwise, Evan Bayh (Iowa) or Mark Warner (Virginia). But that's just my personal interpretation.

Of course he says that, he is still in the race for Presidential candidate, you don't take your eye off the prize while it is still in sight and if he said he would be VP, he would seem as though he thought he would lose the presidential candidate race and in doing so, possibly would.....

I think Edwards would accept the nod, no doubt.

So the John Edwards slogan would be "Give me modesty or give me boat drinks?"

It's very hard to predict these things.  We won't really know until the convention.  In 2000, Cheney and Leiberman were both pretty much out of the blue.  Dick Cheney?  Some Reagan administration guy who had been out of the spotlight for 12 years?

I think it has to be a Southern moderate.  Edwards would be a very good choice - although you'd think McCain would have been a slam dunk* for Bush in 2000, but with all of the animosity generated in that campaign, it just wouldn't have happened.  This may be a similar situation.

Mark Warner of Virginia would be an excellent choice.

*a slam dunk... as opposed to Bill Bradley for Gore (sorry)

McCain wasn't that fond of George W. Bush...when he dropped out of the race he didn't endorse Bush, and he only 'endorsed' Bush in May, and the reporters had to extract it out of his mouth.

I agree beef, if Kerry and Edwards start a mudslinging campaign like that of McCain and Bush, I reckon that neither would choose the other as VP.

edwards won't do that, he's a truly good guy.

I know, but Kerry could start one still and I think Edwards would have to do some to stay in really although it would be a grudging decision if he ever did.....

The meanest I have ever seen Edwards was in that debate:

"Senatir Kerry, that's the longest answer Ah evah heard to a yes-er-no question"

THX for the answer. Thats a cool statement. I would prfer the ticket Kerry/Edwards.

Best wishes to the US

heh, i like that quote miami, it's a nice one

I got his accent down alright...he reminds me of my nephew's science teacher.

lol, they are talking all about the race on newsnight at the moment here in UK

It's captivating the world.

yep yep, i am really interested in it, even if most brits aren't.....

I thought most Brits are interested in it.

don't think so, I reckon a large proportion of Brits couldn't even name more than 1 candidate for Democrats.....

But they would support Kerry.

I'm really mad about this Kerry nomination, he's my least favorite Dem in a while.

I donno about them supporting Kerry, he is likely the only one many have heard of though.....

Bush is greatly unpopular in the UK from what I've heard.

oh, I thought you meant support Kerry as Democratic candidate, not in the general election.

Yes Bush is rather unpopular here I believe.....

I’ve posted this before and being a great believer that Kerry/ Edwards makes alot of sense this is my analysis as far as VPs for Kerry go...

“ The selection of Edwards as a running mate would help soften Kerry’s edges some what and if Edwards moderate neo-populist platform along with his rhetoric of the “Two Americas” is incorporated into the Democratic campaign it will support Kerry’s initial broad base of support and please many independents as well a women and minority voters. Edwards appeal will resonate well with independents in the south and the west and while I predict that this will only help sway states in the Midwest as well as West Virginia it will assist Democratic candidates across the south in senate and congressional races. It is not some much where he comes from (though the self made southerner background is useful) it is more the message that he has put forward which Iowa showed us resonated well with voters and would do so in a general election in my view. I doubt that he would carry any southern states even NC or AS but as I have said he would help with senatorial and congressional dems in the south. #

Gephardt, Graham, Vilsack, Bayh are all too uninspiring for voters and have no compelling message that could help Kerry. Bayh is the best of the bunch as he would reassure many right leaning moderates but he also is not the best speaker. Dean, Hillary are to polarising and Dean in particular could send independents running for the republican hills and both would make the “Massachusetts Liberal” label even harder to shake while adding little or no geographical advantage to the ticket. Ted Kennedy would mean that under the constitution Kerry would be ineligible to win                
Massachusetts so he is a non possibility. Richardson is a definite possibility as that would very much help with the Hispanic vote and would accentuate democratic trends in Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado as well as stiffening Democratic support even further in California. However Richardson does not have the charisma and crystal clarity of Edwards and what is more is appeal is largely limited to the Hispanic and minority communities while from the data I have see Edwards plays well across the board. What is more Edwards would be an excellent debater opposite Cheney (who what ever you say is a crafty and skilled adversary in a political debate hence his many appearances on meet the press etc…while GWB seldom (until now it seems) puts himself through the minefield of meet the press or hardball etc…).  


Edwards can also be type cast as an “ambulance chancing, pretty boy, empty suite with not experience” however a rebuttal of this can merely point out the families who he has helped and the special interests he can claim to have fought and such a counter attack goes hand in hand with any effort to rebut charges against Kerry’s authority on the issues based on his social background. A rebuttal of such attacks by Republicans would in my view be very effective, Which is why I do not see so direct a line of attack being employed by the Republicans…”


I also have done a broader and breifer outline of possible VP's...

Sen.John Breaux. D-LA (Moderate, Southern, retiring so you don’t lose a senate seat)

Sen.John Edwards. D-NC (Populist, Charismatic a national message that appeals to middle and lower income moderate Democrats and Independents across the country)

Sen.Evan Bayh, D-IN (Moderate, DLC, from a GOP state in the Midwest, however can be very dull to listen to and that could be particularly bad for a Kerry ticket, anymore dour gravities and the ticket will just seem dull and unimaginative)

Sen.Bob Graham D-FL (excellent national security résumé and an impressive political record, however as with Bayh dull to the bone and that’s particularly bad for Kerry would work well with Edwards at the top of the ticket perhaps though?)

Sen.Mary Landrieu D-LA (never heard much from her in person, but young attractive… “keep your hands to your self John” (sarcasm) good track record from the south… Edwards with Breasts?)

Sen.Blanche Lincoln D-AR (again female, articulate, moderate and southern all in one go)

Sen.Jay Rockefeller D-WV (a record similar to Graham, more engaging to listen to perhaps too old for the ticket, perhaps be would not bring enough youthful vigour to balance Kerry’s image as the mature statesman)

Gov. Mark Warner (popular moderate governor would help with the rural vote which is a major factor in the states won by Gore in the Midwest which need to be held on to… engaging to listen and a good debater)

Gov. Mike Easley (moderate governor from a conservative state, who if fairly liberal on many issues and is a good campaigner…however he is now runner for re-election and the NC Governorship might very well be worth holding onto and that is something that Easley can defiantly do)

Gov. Bill Richardson (moderate, from a swing state, record in federal and state government, popular and Hispanic so there is the potential to boost minority support for the Dems and counter Bush inroads into the Hispanic community, however he is chairing the convention and there fore unlikely to become Kerry or anybodies VP)

That was my analysis and i stick by it...
 
 
 
 
 

Yep.

----

Good analysis, Ben.

This gives me yet another chance to boost the candidacy of Dianne Feinstein.  It's a total winner.

That was an analysis?

If Kerry is the Democratic nominee, he should pick Wes Clark to be his running mate.

A lot has been said of John Edwards as VP. Edwards is charming and great on the stump. However, his ability to help carry North Carolina and other southern states remains highly in question since he couldn’t win in neighboring states. Clark was more of an attack dog on Bush in the primaries while Edwards at his best has been viewed as positive; Edwards will have to transform to become the attack dog. Would that seem insincere to voters?

The last two Vice Presidential picks, Gore and Cheney, broke with a typical tradition of picking someone to balance a ticket with someone from a different region. Gore reinforced Clinton’s qualifications as a moderate DLC Southerner; Cheney, while from the same basic region, countered Bush’s dearth of experience in defense, diplomacy, and  national security.

Picking Edwards only reverts to that old tradition of balancing mainly for regional differences. Clark, while he is from the South, would be a pick that reinforces both Kerry’s experience on defense and security matters and his personal appeal to veterans. Even now, with Kerry polling Bush 52-43 in one recent poll, he still comes short on the issue of “Who is best to deal with terrorism?” 51-37. Kerry needs to narrow the gap on that issue, even if he continues to lead on economic issues by impressive margins. Clark can help close the “terrorism” gap.

More people than usual are showing an interest; it's rare that primaries make headline news, but it's often been the case this year. Expect record viewing numbers for election night.

Well, Kerry doesn't necessarily need to close the gap on terrorism as long as he can maintain or expand the gap on the economy. And that's where Edwards comes in. He has found a lot of success with his economic message, and has shown strength in key swing states such as Iowa and Wisconsin. He can appeal to the people who are losing their jobs or in fear of losing them in the manufacturing and farm states in the Midwest. Clark has no domestic experience and would only help with national security. The economy is the winning issue for the Dems, especially the outsourcing of jobs overseas. Bush is very vulnerable if he can be successfully portrayed as in the hip pocket of big business, because big business is not viewed as favorably to ordinary Americans these days as it was a few years ago. Yes, Kerry does need to be seen as credible on national security, but Edwards would balance the ticket nicely. Not just because he's from the South; Kerry will still lose the South even with Edwards, but that's not the point. Edward's sunny optimism and "two Americas" stump speeches appeal to the Midwest and to swing voters. Also, being from the South helps him present more of a moderate image which helps with swing voters also.

Last I heard it was the Republicans who were in power during 9/11, remember Harry Truman's words.."the buck stops here!"

Ah b-lieve there 'ur two amuricas: one fur the families that get what they want, when they want---and one fur every-bady else!

From UVA's Center for Politics (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball):

"On January 5, 2004, the Crystal Ball shamelessly started the V.P. speculation before we even had a solid clue from the voters as to the winner of the Presidential nomination. Not one of our loyal readers objected, so we assume that you won't care if we continue this madness. Compared to the ancient list (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_veep-table.htm) that was constructed five weeks and several political eternities ago, we have a new frontrunner--former Senator Max Cleland of Georgia, who has campaigned by Kerry's side and shares the special bond of the band of Vietnam War brothers. Cleland, the longtime Peach State politician would make Kerry at least competitive in Georgia (though he lost his own seat in 2002); and as a Vietnam quadriplegic, Cleland has a matching story of heroism and sacrifice that would reinforce Kerry's own (pre-Jane Fonda, at least) and make this ticket potentially attractive to many veterans."

Kerry-Cleland 2004!

QQQQQQ,

Who do you think will win the georgia Democratic Primary?

Miami:

The most recent Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll, on Feb. 4:

Kerry 39%
Edwards 18%
Dean 10%
Clark 8%
Sharpton 7%
Don't know 18%

Okay, so Edwards will probably win there.

keep in mind that Bush sr. and Reagen had a bitter campaign against each other in 1980 but eneded up on the ticket together anyway

I read in THE ARIZONA REPUBLIC this morning that Gov. Napolitano is being considered as a running mate. She would balance the ticket geographicly, seeing as kerrys from new england, a VP from the southwest would probably help.

Nah, I don't see her being picked.  IT only gains kerry 15EV's in the SW with AZ and NM, but Bayh would gain him Ohio and Iowa, and put Indiana in play.

Well, I guess that is a fair assumption.  Edwards will be speaking at Clark Atlanta University today, and Kerry will be here on Sunday.  I've seen no significant support for eaither candidate in the media here, so until another poll comes out, it would be hard to make a prediction.  It seems as though no attention has been paid to GA until this point, so if Edwards makes a big push here, he would have a good chance.

Then again, former Sen. Max Cleland, who is held in the highest regard by GA Democrats, has been one of Kerry's longest and strongest supporters.  Add to that speculation that Cleland is being considered for Kerry's VP.  Strongest plus for Kerry.

If Bayh could win him OH he would certainly be worth it, but I'm not convinced he can.  He would throw a twist on things in Indiana and would likely lock down Iowa.

Indiana ain't in play, guys. sorry.  I think Kerry's more likely to carry NC than Indiana, and he ain't carrying NC either, even with Edwards on the ticket.  I doubt Edwards could carry NC at the top of the ticket, but that is a SLIGHT possibility.

If we pick Bayh it may be.  I still think Bush would win it, but it would force him to campaign a bit there.

There's Colorado as well, it's about as likely as AZ to go Dem. But the Mid-West is still more important.

Probably a little less likely than AZ.

2000 results:

CO: Bush 50.75%

AZ: Bush 50.95%

Okay, you win.

Yay, I won! ;D

OK, I'm calm again... ;)

when will you post at my forum?

Right now. :)

good boy....We actually come up on a google search!

Cool! :)