Talk Elections

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Rasmussen on 2008-08-20 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=4220080819016)

Summary: D: 48%, R: 45%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/pennsylvania/toplines_pennsylvania_presidential_election_august_19_2008)

I'm not really worried about PA right now. I would be if McCain actually pulls ahead. But there've been several polls this time around in 2004 where Bush lead by 3, whereas Obama constantly leads McCain.

I'm not surprised.  PA may be the "Ohio" of 2008.

Race is tightening everywhere. This is undeniable.

not if McCain follows Rush Limbaugh's advice and takes Rick Santorum as his running mate. THat would swing it!

And, as usual, your ignorance shows. I've never argued that Santorum would really help among undecided voters especially in PA. I do enjoy your little love fest with me today though.

McCain has outspent Obama here by $1.5 million, the largest gap of any state where they're both competing. Admittedly, it's the largest state where he's advertising.

1.) I never claimed you had made any such statement. Don't put words in my mouth. I was just suggesting myself that Santorum might overcome the "solid Obama" rating.

2.) My ignorance? Isn't it pretty ignorant to mock everyone with your stupid "solid Obama" comment?

In a mocking manner.


Mocking everyone? No, just the ones that see this as an almost safe Obama state.

That's where I have it and I'm not changing it based on one poll.

I'm not worried about Pennsylvania much. Obama has had an extremely consistent lead here and unless McCain takes a very large lead it is not voting for McCain.

Good to see that PA is staying democrat even when Obama is admittedly losing his lead nationwide. CO,OH,NV and VA will decide this thing.

My friends, this Obama lead is about the same as his lead nationally.

No, his lead is either one or none, here it is 3 and he has had a better lead here than nationally very consistently.

Well according to RCP Obama is leading by about 1.5 nationally. See after April 22nd I thought this would be one of those states that could go from being more dem than the average to more republican. Obviously that has not occurred and it is about a couple points more dem than the national average. Thus in a 50-50 race PA will vote democrat, even if it is by a few points. CO,OH and VA might end up being more interesting in a 50-50 race.

Eh, this poll is in line with the other polls.  I wouldn't be too quick to call it "the deciding state of 2008" or a tossup yet since, what, it's been consistently Obama +5-6% but recently McCain has caught up at least about a percentage point overall nationally.  The difference between ~3% in one poll isn't really that different from 4-5% or wherever the trendline would guess at where he is.

I mean, PA will obviously be competitive.  But at least Michigan has several polls with a McCain lead.  Stay tuned.

Oh wow! A two point difference. Yep, solid Obama state.


It doesn't always work out that way but whatever.

Well if Obama decides to not even campaign in PA, then sure Mccain could walk away with the state in a 50-50 race. But it more likely that the race will be settled by states like CO,NV,OH and VA who really seem to be in the middle of the country currently. PA is like MI in the sense that it is so close yet so far for republicans.

More solid than you make it out to be. You act like it is a total tossup, that is for states like Nevada, Colorado and Ohio not Pennsylvania.

It's important to remember that 3% is within statistical static for a slightly higher number, like I said, 4-5%.  I mean, the "actual" number could just as easily be 1-2% although I view that as unlikely.

PA *does* seem to be one of the stronger states for Obama that both sides are competing.  I would place it as the third-most safe Obama state out of the states that both are running ads in.

^^^^

I agree with this guy.

Hahaha...

Oh, you silly, silly child. You're right. It won't be a total toss up like it has been for plenty of elections.

Not so much "under fire" as exactly where it was in 2004.

Sometimes I think we put too much faith in Rasmussen polls.  He's a good pollster, but +/-4.5% is still a lot.

I wants the my precious  cross tabs, even if the Alconion sub-sample is MOE humungous (sp)!

Dude, it's not my margin of error.  It's God's (or something)

Still leaning blue. [or...red...says Dave Leip]

If there was a category between pure tossup and lean Obama, I would put PA there. I would also put NM,IA and MI in that category as well. Is that good enough for you o great one?

Phil:  "[Pennsylvania has been] a total tossup ... for plenty of elections"

actual results in PA:

2004:  Kerry by 2.5% (Bush won by a similar margin)
2000:  Gore by 4.2% (Gore won popular vote by less than 1%)
1996:  Clinton by 9.2% (Clinton won by 8.5%)
1992: Clinton by 9.0% (Clinton won by 5.6%)
1988:  Bush by 2.3% (Bush won by 7.6%)
1984:  Reagan by 7.3% (Reagan won by 18.2%)
1980:  Reagan by 7.1% (Reagan won by 9.7%)
1976:  Carter by 2.7% (Carter won by 2.1%)

In each of the last 8 elections PA has been more Democratic than the rest of the country.  The closest to the national average were 1976 and 1996, both Dem victories, and 1976 seemed to be a completely different world than today.  1996 may show where the peak for Dems is in PA at least at that time, regardles of national trends.

Sure, PA's not generally a safe dem state but to call it a pure tossup over plenty of elections seems a tad off as well.  It's a definite Dem tilting state, that could change to a tossup but there's little evidence to suggest it has.

And how does that mean that it wasn't considered a toss up for most of the fall before the election?