Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign => Topic started by: Harry Hayfield on August 22, 2008, 03:15:47 PM



Title: TV Maps
Post by: Harry Hayfield on August 22, 2008, 03:15:47 PM
I would like to start a new thread to accompany the polling section where members can post maps based on what "experts" say so that other members can comment on them. To break the ice so to speak, I woud like to contribute this map.

Broadcast: August 22nd 2008
Channel: Fox News
Programme: Your World with Cavuto
Map Source: Karl Rove and Company

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Electoral College Tally
Republicans 194 ECV's
Democrats 260 ECV's
Tossups 84


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: anti_leftist on August 22, 2008, 03:30:51 PM
Just based on history, I'd say MT and ND should probably be some shade of light blue, but otherwise this seems like a perfectly reasonable map.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Sbane on August 22, 2008, 04:37:35 PM
I would probably switch ND blue and make NH red. Other than that good map.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Mr. Morden on August 22, 2008, 04:56:18 PM
Identical to this map, except for Alaska:

http://www.pollster.com/polls/2008president/

In other words, it's an accurate reflection of where things stand with current polling....even if there are certain states (like ND) where we might not believe the polling.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Erc on August 22, 2008, 05:27:21 PM
Not a horrible map, though I disagree about New Mexico given his other choices of tossups.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Ronnie on August 22, 2008, 06:18:58 PM
I would probably switch ND blue and make NH red. Other than that good map.

As much as you may want to deny it, New Hampshire will be competitive this year.  Yeah, Obama will probably take it, but it's a viable tipping point state that McCain shouldn't and won't write off.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Sbane on August 22, 2008, 06:50:26 PM
I would probably switch ND blue and make NH red. Other than that good map.

As much as you may want to deny it, New Hampshire will be competitive this year.  Yeah, Obama will probably take it, but it's a viable tipping point state that McCain shouldn't and won't write off.

If this map is saying that PA and MI are lean dem, then so should NH. I actually think NH will just be a few points more dem than the national average and if Mccain wins by a couple points he has a good chance of picking up the state. I just think that if Mccain wins it will be by a very small margin by carrying CO,NV and OH. Of course if he wins by a few points he will start winning NM,PA and perhaps IA, NH and MI.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Ronnie on August 22, 2008, 08:32:38 PM
I would probably switch ND blue and make NH red. Other than that good map.

As much as you may want to deny it, New Hampshire will be competitive this year.  Yeah, Obama will probably take it, but it's a viable tipping point state that McCain shouldn't and won't write off.

If this map is saying that PA and MI are lean dem, then so should NH. I actually think NH will just be a few points more dem than the national average and if Mccain wins by a couple points he has a good chance of picking up the state. I just think that if Mccain wins it will be by a very small margin by carrying CO,NV and OH. Of course if he wins by a few points he will start winning NM,PA and perhaps IA, NH and MI.

It will be about 1 point more Democratic than the national average, I predict.  McCain can still change that though if the economy shapes up or the war in Iraq becomes more popular when election day comes.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Gustaf on August 24, 2008, 09:35:15 AM
I would probably switch ND blue and make NH red. Other than that good map.

As much as you may want to deny it, New Hampshire will be competitive this year.  Yeah, Obama will probably take it, but it's a viable tipping point state that McCain shouldn't and won't write off.

If this map is saying that PA and MI are lean dem, then so should NH. I actually think NH will just be a few points more dem than the national average and if Mccain wins by a couple points he has a good chance of picking up the state. I just think that if Mccain wins it will be by a very small margin by carrying CO,NV and OH. Of course if he wins by a few points he will start winning NM,PA and perhaps IA, NH and MI.

I expect New Hampshire to be closer to the national average than both PA and MI but I believe all will be within 5%. New Hampshire maybe as little as 1 or 2 % more Democratic than national average.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Smid on August 25, 2008, 12:41:15 AM
That map looks very much like the one at www.electoral-vote.com at the moment, which is some function of recent polls, so is probably roughly where things are at the moment.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Harry Hayfield on August 25, 2008, 06:15:05 PM
Broadcast: August 26th 2008
Channel: CNN
Programme: Democratic Convention Coverage
Map Source: CNN Estimates

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Electoral College Tally
Republicans 189 ECV's
Democrats 221 ECV's
Tossups 128


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: exopolitician on August 25, 2008, 06:15:57 PM
Broadcast: August 26th 2008
Channel: CNN
Programme: Democratic Convention Coverage
Map Source: CNN Estimates

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Electoral College Tally
Republicans 189 ECV's
Democrats 221 ECV's
Tossups 128

Oh Minnesota....wheres BRTD?


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: go85bucks10 on August 28, 2008, 01:07:14 AM
This CNN Map is weak. CNN doesn't take any, and I mean any chances when they made this map. everything that could be considered battleground except for Pennsylvania is labeled a battlegroound. Missouri as a toss up is ridiculous. Montana is closer than Missouri's is. They just chose Missouri because of its history as the number 1 bellwether state since 1900, but this time around unless there is a major change, its going republican.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Lunar on August 28, 2008, 01:34:39 AM
()


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on August 28, 2008, 03:29:13 AM
     Minnesota is a tossup yet Pennsylvania is lean? Toss that one.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Lunar on August 28, 2008, 11:43:14 AM
     Minnesota is a tossup yet Pennsylvania is lean? Toss that one.

Hey, CNN is getting a lot better lately.  They used to have New Mexico as "lean McCain" despite not a single poll at that time (out of like a dozen) showing McCain with ANY lead.  The news media in general seems insistent that Minnesota is a tossup - they seem reluctant to judge the state before the home-state convention and possible home-state VP.  I also think putting Minnesota as a tossup means that they seem less biased with their EV totals.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on August 28, 2008, 03:09:31 PM
     Minnesota is a tossup yet Pennsylvania is lean? Toss that one.

Hey, CNN is getting a lot better lately.  They used to have New Mexico as "lean McCain" despite not a single poll at that time (out of like a dozen) showing McCain with ANY lead.  The news media in general seems insistent that Minnesota is a tossup - they seem reluctant to judge the state before the home-state convention and possible home-state VP.  I also think putting Minnesota as a tossup means that they seem less biased with their EV totals.

     Minnesota just is not within reach of McCain. Pawlenty would raise McCain's chances of winning the state from 0% to 0.1%.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Harry Hayfield on August 28, 2008, 05:12:46 PM
Broadcast: August 28th 2008
Channel: Fox News Channel
Programme: Special Report with Brit Hume
Map Source: Karl Rove

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Obama 260
McCain 221
Tossups 57


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on August 28, 2008, 09:37:10 PM
Broadcast: August 28th 2008
Channel: Fox News Channel
Programme: Special Report with Brit Hume
Map Source: Karl Rove

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Obama 260
McCain 221
Tossups 57

     NH to lean Obama, PA to tossup. Otherwise, I agree with this map.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Harry Hayfield on September 02, 2008, 05:37:20 PM
Broadcast: September 2nd 2008
Channel: CNN
Programme: The Situation Room
Map Source: CNN Estimates

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Obama 226
McCain 189
Tossups 123

According to the chief GOP pollster, the effect of Palin would be thus:

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Obama 221
McCain 216
Tossups 101

(The changes are: CO McCain, NM McCain, VA leans McCain)


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: exopolitician on September 02, 2008, 08:12:25 PM
Broadcast: September 2nd 2008
Channel: CNN
Programme: The Situation Room
Map Source: CNN Estimates

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Obama 226
McCain 189
Tossups 123

According to the chief GOP pollster, the effect of Palin would be thus:

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Obama 221
McCain 216
Tossups 101

(The changes are: CO McCain, NM McCain, VA leans McCain)

AHAHA


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Harry Hayfield on September 03, 2008, 05:42:18 PM
Broadcast: September 3rd 2008
Channel: CNN
Programme: The Situation Room
Map Source: CNN Estimates and CNN Polls

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Lighter colours = leaners, Darker Colours = Bankers

Obama 243
McCain 189
Tossups 106


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Iosif on September 03, 2008, 05:44:53 PM
Nobody has the balls to call it the way it is. Everybody's playing it safe.

The only pure tossups in this election are Ohio, Virginia and Colorado. The rest are all leans/safe.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on September 04, 2008, 01:19:07 AM
Broadcast: September 3rd 2008
Channel: CNN
Programme: The Situation Room
Map Source: CNN Estimates and CNN Polls

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Lighter colours = leaners, Darker Colours = Bankers

Obama 243
McCain 189
Tossups 106

     Louisiana & Arkansas are leaners? Is CNN even trying?


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on September 04, 2008, 01:48:49 AM
Broadcast: September 3rd 2008
Channel: CNN
Programme: The Situation Room
Map Source: CNN Estimates and CNN Polls

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Lighter colours = leaners, Darker Colours = Bankers

Obama 243
McCain 189
Tossups 106

Louisiana is looking like a 60% + route for McCain this year, and they have it as lean? The same deal with Arkansas, West Virginia.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Lunar on September 04, 2008, 01:57:42 AM
Hey, it's about as much in play as New Jersey, which is also "lean"


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Harry Hayfield on September 04, 2008, 04:03:40 AM
Nobody has the balls to call it the way it is. Everybody's playing it safe. The only pure tossups in this election are Ohio, Virginia and Colorado. The rest are all leans/safe.

I would have to agree with you on that point. It seems as if following 2000 the big networks are being very cagey (in case they get accused of allowing one candidate to build up a head of steam). My personal feelings (which I won't commit to a projection until September 15th onwards) are:

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Obama 264
McCain 229
Ind 3
Tossup 42

(The reason for Alaska going Independent is that the Alaskan Independence Party may say "Look, so we may have a VP nominee, but will that really get Alaska noticed? Vote AIP and Alaska will really get noticed!")


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Hash on September 04, 2008, 07:04:03 AM
(The reason for Alaska going Independent is that the Alaskan Independence Party may say "Look, so we may have a VP nominee, but will that really get Alaska noticed? Vote AIP and Alaska will really get noticed!")

LOL

The AIP isn't even running a Presidential candidate.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on September 04, 2008, 10:15:02 PM
(The reason for Alaska going Independent is that the Alaskan Independence Party may say "Look, so we may have a VP nominee, but will that really get Alaska noticed? Vote AIP and Alaska will really get noticed!")

LOL

The AIP isn't even running a Presidential candidate.

     I figured it was meant to be sarcastic.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Harry Hayfield on September 07, 2008, 05:21:24 PM
Broadcast: September 7th 2008
Channel: Fox News
Programme: Fox News Sunday
Map Source: Karl Rove and Company

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Obama 260
McCain 194
Tossups 84

Now I don't usually comment on these maps, but...

North Dakota, a tossup? What are they thinking???

North Dakota 2004: Bush 63% Kerry 35% Others 2%


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Hash on September 07, 2008, 07:20:45 PM
Look at the recent ND polls and you'll see their point.

That map is my map, actually. (Not saying they stole it. It's my prediction. Not like my copyright. You know).


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: RJ on September 07, 2008, 10:08:36 PM
Broadcast: September 7th 2008
Channel: Fox News
Programme: Fox News Sunday
Map Source: Karl Rove and Company

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Obama 260
McCain 194
Tossups 84



Fox news posted this map?


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on September 07, 2008, 11:33:17 PM
Broadcast: September 7th 2008
Channel: Fox News
Programme: Fox News Sunday
Map Source: Karl Rove and Company

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Obama 260
McCain 194
Tossups 84



Fox news posted this map?

News flash: Fox News isn't as bias as the left wants people to believe.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: The Ex-Factor on September 08, 2008, 05:11:34 AM
Well, if you go absolutely strictly on the polling data, both Montana and North Dakota are tossups.

That's the exact same map I had in mind actually, except with Florida in the GOP column.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Harry Hayfield on September 14, 2008, 05:05:36 PM
Broadcast: September 14th 2008
Channel: CNBC / MSNBC / NBC affliates
Programme: Meet the Press
Map Source: NBC Election Team

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Obama 233
McCain 227
Tossups 78

(Lighter colours leaning, Darker colours bankers)


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on September 16, 2008, 01:21:58 AM
Broadcast: September 15, 2008
Channel: FoxNews
Program: Your World with Brit Hume
Source: Karl Rove

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Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Hash on September 16, 2008, 07:05:45 AM
So Rove & Co. are giving up on NM and NH?


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on September 16, 2008, 12:24:44 PM

He's basing it off polling, not his wishes. Honestly, this blind hatred of Fox is pathetic. That map is very reasonable, more so than what CNN or MSNBC puts out.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Person Man on September 16, 2008, 12:28:09 PM

He's basing it off polling, not his wishes. Honestly, this blind hatred of Fox is pathetic. That map is very reasonable, more so than what CNN or MSNBC puts out.

About as much as blind hatred of Daily Kos is. :P



Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on September 16, 2008, 12:30:54 PM

He's basing it off polling, not his wishes. Honestly, this blind hatred of Fox is pathetic. That map is very reasonable, more so than what CNN or MSNBC puts out.

About as much as blind hatred of Daily Kos is. :P



Comparing the Daily Kos to Fox News is also insane.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Iosif on September 16, 2008, 07:56:00 PM

He's basing it off polling, not his wishes. Honestly, this blind hatred of Fox is pathetic. That map is very reasonable, more so than what CNN or MSNBC puts out.

Yeah. One's the mouthpiece of an extreme fringe in American politics and the other's an internet blog.

About as much as blind hatred of Daily Kos is. :P



Comparing the Daily Kos to Fox News is also insane.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Harry Hayfield on September 17, 2008, 04:20:46 AM
Broadcast: September 16, 2008
Channel: FoxNews
Program: The O'Reilly Factor
Source: Real Clear Politics

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Obama 207
McCain 227
Tossups 104


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Harry Hayfield on September 24, 2008, 06:45:28 AM
Broadcast: September 24th 2008
Channel: Fox News
Programme: Fox and Friends
Map Source: RealClearPolitics.com

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Obama 219
McCain 189
Tossups 130

I am intrigued as to why IN is being classed as a tossup. The last time it went Dem was in the 1964 Johnson landslide. They're not surely suggesting that IN is going to vote Dem are they?


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Hash on October 03, 2008, 02:41:56 PM
Map Source: LeMonde.fr

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Obama 280
McCain 163
Tossup 95




Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Lunar on October 05, 2008, 03:42:24 PM
KARL ROVE:
()


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: ?????????? on October 05, 2008, 03:55:50 PM
I love our scheme better.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Harry Hayfield on October 05, 2008, 04:31:58 PM
Show: Meet the Press
Broadcast: October 5th 2008
Network / Channel : NBC
Source: Chuck Todd, NBC Politics

let’s go to our surface. Here’s where we were in 2004, Obama being—representing the Kerry states here in blue, John McCain representing the Bush states in 2004 in red. Two eighty-six, 252; John Kerry came up 18 electoral votes short, or one Ohio. And here’s where we were last week, just to show you where the battleground was.

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McCain 174
Obama 212
Tossups 152

And I want you to keep an eye as I change things to these states up here in the northern tier of the country, the industrial Midwest.

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McCain 174
Obama 264
Tossups 100

And everything has moved, at least with the Kerry states, have moved out of toss-up and into the Obama column. Throw in the fact that he is up in Iowa and up in New Mexico, and right now, if the election were held today, we would say that Obama is up five or more points right now in enough states, 264 electoral votes. John McCain under 200, under 175. And as you see here, all, all of these states are Bush ‘04 states—Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and Indiana, Colorado and Nevada.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 05, 2008, 06:00:34 PM
Map Source: LeMonde.fr

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Obama 280
McCain 163
Tossup 95



Wow. That's probably the best map in this entire thread. And it's from France. US media fails.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Hash on October 05, 2008, 06:06:36 PM
From the nightly news on France2.

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Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Harry Hayfield on October 06, 2008, 04:52:51 AM

Thanks for that.. I get Journal de France 2 every evening as well on TV5 Monde. I've set up a series link on my TIVO.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: The Ex-Factor on October 06, 2008, 05:57:20 AM
^ Definitely would not put Nevada in the lean Obama column if Colorado & Virginia aren't. They've been polling better for him than Nevada this entire campaign.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: big bad fab on October 08, 2008, 06:26:24 AM
The latest CNN map is, at last, quite fine:

toss-ups: NV, CO, MO, OH, VA, NC, FL.

Sure, Indiana may be threatened and NM may be won by Obama with a slighter margin than expected.

Sure, CO should be lost by McCain. MO and NC may be too far for Obama, eventually.

But it seems that CNN has now the best TV map or MSM map.
All the others have 1, 2 or more "strange" states.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Harry Hayfield on October 11, 2008, 08:20:33 AM
The latest CNN map is, at last, quite fine:

toss-ups: NV, CO, MO, OH, VA, NC, FL.

Sure, Indiana may be threatened and NM may be won by Obama with a slighter margin than expected.

Sure, CO should be lost by McCain. MO and NC may be too far for Obama, eventually.

But it seems that CNN has now the best TV map or MSM map.
All the others have 1, 2 or more "strange" states.

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And here is said map as broadcast on CNN's The Campaign Trail on CNN International on October 11th 2008.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Harry Hayfield on October 19, 2008, 05:55:29 PM
Programme: Fox News Sunday
Channel: Fox News
Broadcast: October 19th 2008
Produced by: Karl Rove and Company

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Obama 313
McCain 171
Tossups 54


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 20, 2008, 01:22:03 PM
New MSNBC/NBC Map (Oct 20):

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Likely Obama: 175
Lean Obama: 89
Total Obama: 264

Likely McCain: 134
Lean McCain: 29
Total McCain: 163

Tossup: 111


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Harry Hayfield on October 23, 2008, 01:37:36 PM
Here's a very odd looking map from Fox News, published today on the Live Desk

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Obama 318
McCain 171
Tossups 49

The various shadings are:

30% vote support = leaning
50% vote support = likely
90% vote support = solid


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Harry Hayfield on October 27, 2008, 05:02:30 AM
Hubdub has produced an election map by asking it's users to assess what chance each candidate has of winning each state (and the interesting thing is the map produced is the same as the experts have produced of late)

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Obama 375
McCain 163


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Lunar on November 02, 2008, 04:25:11 PM
Suffolk sucks at analysis

()


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Harry Hayfield on November 02, 2008, 05:13:40 PM
Final NBC Meet the Press Map (November 2nd 2008)

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Obama 286
McCain 156
Tossups 96


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Hash on November 02, 2008, 05:17:00 PM
lol

IIRC, this was the France2 map for last night:

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And saw this on some Michigan channel this morning

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Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Hash on November 02, 2008, 05:26:11 PM
LeMonde map

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252-132 Obama.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Harry Hayfield on November 02, 2008, 06:06:15 PM
Final Fox News Sunday map from Karl Rove

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Obama 311
McCain 160
Tossups 67


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: ?????????? on November 03, 2008, 03:10:02 AM
Final NBC Meet the Press Map (November 2nd 2008)

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Obama 286
McCain 156
Tossups 96

Meet the Depressed is a joke.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Hash on November 03, 2008, 08:09:47 AM
Just saw this piece of sh**t on CBS

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Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: RI on November 03, 2008, 03:38:00 PM

LOL


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: big bad fab on November 03, 2008, 06:15:09 PM

Is it possible to say something on this sh*t ?


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: big bad fab on November 03, 2008, 06:30:31 PM
CNN has a really decent last one.

Of course, AR is safe McCain and not lean, ND may lean McCain and not be a toss-up, and you can discuss on safe/lean status of WI, MN and ME.
But, broadly speaking, their awful map on June gradually became a very realistic one.


Title: Re: TV Maps
Post by: Horus on November 03, 2008, 09:35:03 PM

What gets me the most is Michigan... however, just seeing OH and MI Republican while IN is a tossup is enough to throw CBS's political predictions even further into the garbage. I really wonder if they did it like that on purpose to surprise viewers election night? What utter garbage.