Talk Elections

It's your choose.

I personally say help, if only for the unconventional factor.

What's her experience except for being Governor since '06?

Not much.  Mayor of Wasilla.

Help, but not significantly.  VP picks this year seem to be theme-builders, not really blockbusters.

ill reserve judgment for now.

i will say i wouldnt have voted for her for governor.  i would have voted for the independent republican running.

It's something different, which McCain needs. Does it help or hurt him? Probably neither.

At 72 years old for McCain, President Palin is not out of the question, and I'm not totally comfortable with that.

I don't really know yet. I really don't expect any intial bounce from the pick.

I'm going to tentatively say good - though honestly I have never seen her speak, which means a lot in my book.

Very good point.

I've got to call my Mom and get her reaction. I suspect this is going to play poorly with women who will see Palin as America's Second Wife, but again, I'm in wishful thinking mode. I'm not worried about her as VP nominee, but she just seems too risky and untested.

Pardon my language, but I think we're phucked.

She makes things different. The experience argument is dead, the military argument is dead, the celebrity argument is dead. The feminism debate is alive. And that's pretty much it. I would have been happier with McCain choosing Pawlenty simply because it would mean a continuation of the same campaign (on both sides), which I think Obama would have won now that the DNC has happened. (Other choices such as Romney would have just made things worse for McCain.) On the other hand, I don't think Palin makes it more likely that McCain wins; what she does do is make the election harder to figure out, at least in the short term. We may know the paradigm a week from now.

the only point that matters

No, JS, you know I'm way more conservative than liberal but this choice truly concerns me.  Obiden can't be too unhappy.

I'm not sure the experience argument is dead.  The Rove playbook is not big on addressing cognitive dissidence.

McCain can still use it, but Obama now has the easiest ammunition of all to rebut it: Palin is an enormous lightweight (lol, oxymoronic metaphor). I don't think we'll see much of it.

To be sure, the Palin pick would probably have drawn me to McCain against Clinton (depending somewhat on her VP, too, and I doubt McCain would have chosen Palin against Clinton). But Palin is probably the most inexperienced person ever considered for high office; I don't vote on experience, but a lot of people do.

I really think this is a disaster for McCain...  all of you seem to disagree and I suppose the chance exists that he's hit a home run, but I think it's very stupid and reeks of desperation...

No, it's absolutely dead.

If Barack Obama isn't prepared to lead, then Sarah Palin definitely isn't.  Didn't John McCain promise to pick someone qualified?

This may explain the tone transition from "inexperienced" to "not ready to lead," though -- which I think is clever.  This might explain why McCain's campaign has almost seemed to stop using references to experience recently.  Maybe I'm reading too much into that.

Palin is qualified. President is like rocket science. It's about leadership... and although most people don't know what kind of leader she'd be, that doesn't mean she can't be a good one.

Maybe, but that shift happened well before the Biden pick. McCain couldn't have settled on Palin back he was floating pro-choice VP possibilities and Obama still could have gone with Sebelius or Clinton herself.

"Not ready to lead" doesn't help, either. Palin is ready to lead because... ? (At least insofar as Obama is not ready to lead. If he is, then I can agree that Palin is, too. All these theoretical positions spin my head.)

It's a really, really weird choice. I think it'll hurt him in the end, as his best attack against Obama (the experience thing) is completely off the table. It might also defuse Biden a bit, as he can't really attack her as viciously in the debates as he could have Romney or Pawlenty. But she's still a lightweight, and has been the governor of less than one million people for less than 2 years.

The experience argument is far from dead, unfortunately. Yall are overthinking in this case.

I'm watching Salazar on CNN, and he doesn't have anything against Palin.  All he can say is that "I didn't hear of her until this morning."

I think this is a big plus.

See GM, you are thinking like an intelligent, informed American.  As usual.  But that's not how most people think.  Republicans have known this for years.  They know America wants a President you can have a beer with.  Not one who reads books.

This time, they are giving America a fairly boring number one.  And adding a number two that millions of Americans want to have much more than a beer with.  (Not to suggest Sarah isn't highly intelligent.  She is.  But that's not the part of her millions will vote for.)

But to your point -- I agree.  McCain is 72 and has a history with cancer.  She is the former mayor of a city of five thousand people. She is the first term governor of a state with about 600 thousand people. Idaho has almost twice as many.  

Compared to Obama-Biden...Obama will have had four years Senate experience, including stints on the foreign affairs and armed services committee.  Not a lot of experience.  But more than Palin.  And still, Obama's youth is no gaurantor against disaster.  He could die.  He could be assassinated.  So then Joe Biden looks like an infinitely better pick.

But you and I both now, it's no longer about who is best for America.  In either party.  It's about who wins the most votes.

Question is though... if Palin is the nominee, will Parnell just drop his chances for Congress?

She'll still be governor until January even if McCain wins.

That was the first thing that crossed my mind.

If McCain were 10 years younger... sure. But given concerns about his age, having a VP with so little experience can't be spun to be a good thing.

To the extent that "the base" (I hate that term) just loves her and endears them to McCain, then it helps.

Really? I have a hard time believing that the anti-choice, anti-gay, pro-gun, pro-war Republican men that make up the party's base love the idea of an inexperienced woman a heartbeat away from the presidency.

I'm sorry but this just screams "PANDER" to me.

Then you don't know them.  

If abortive women (and/or the abortion providers) are thrown in prison...and gays aren't allowed to marry or have equal rights...they are perfectly content.  God will shower blessing on America.  That's all they care about.  (Speaking of the religious conservatives...not all Republicans.)

I doubt 10% of the base has heard of her.  If you're talking about the real GOP base that they need to get out, the fundies, they'll probably like her on paper but a little less in practice.  Just my gut.

typical wing nut and ethically challenged.

I've heard she's somewhat moderate (for a Republican) on gay rights.

Palin herself is anti-choice, pro-gun, and pro-war. She doesn't strike me as all that anti-gay, though.

And to Alcon: Yes they have. That's why they're "The Base" (ugh).

She "has gay friends" and followed a court order to offer state partner benefits, which entailed a veto of unconstitutional anti-gay rights legislation.  She also supports civil unions.  I guess that makes her moderate for a Republican.  She isn't a fire-breather, but she is (unfortunately) a religious conservative, and seems perfectly happy with the status quo.  Other than her inexperience, that is my biggest (and probably sole) criticism.

This may be a point of disagreement, but I don't think McCain has ever risked losing the hyper-educated base.  Moreover, I don't think that's a major part of the swing electorate.  I think the low-information fundamentalist vote is vastly more important and worth pandering to.  They don't know who Sarah Palin is.  They'll like her positions, though.

I usually think of "the base" as a support system.  I guess you could consider that to be the high-information, activist GOP voters, but I think of that more as the "grassroots."  "The base" I usually think of more as the common, relatively reliable conservative voters.  Semantics :)

She's not the best pick, but i can see why McCain chose her. He wanted a younger person on the ticket to counter Obama. Personally, I would have chosen Pawlenty.

She's now being painted as some warrior woman.

A gun-toting, anti-choice, pro-war woman is a smart choice with swing-voters?

Somehow I doubt it.

I think is a pick to reassure the base - with pandering to women as a bonus.

I'd love to see her attempt to defend McCain's oil policies as a reformist governor who's willing to stand up to the oil companies.

I'm still trying to get used to the idea of such a sexy Vice President...and you know my attraction to older women.

Here's an interesting aspect of the debate that will be coming up:
If Biden is too aggressive to a feminine woman, he will come across as a major league asshole.  People could be aggressive to Hillary because she wanted to be seen as a man.

I still think the experience and celebrity arguments are 50% killed in swing states.  It's not hard for Obama to run ads calling McCain a hypocrite and Miss Alaska shallow just by tone of voice. 

It seems McCain is willing to do anything to continue the divide in the Democratic party.  I think my guess last night that Obama (and the Clintons) decided to focus 90% of his entire speech on the Democrats strategically was right - if Obama can make himself into the generic Democrat and McCain   into a generic Republican, Obama wins.  McCain choosing an unconventional pick further distinguishes him from the old & white man party.

One thing I worry about though from McCain's perspective.  I'm not sure if the bulk of PUMA-types really would be down for a 72 year old man selecting a MILF.

Let's wait for the sex tape to emerge guys!  Haha.

Another note: she is younger than Obama - 44 years old.

oh, and she has the same first and middle name as my sister.  weird.

Older? OLDER?????????????

Go haunt a house!  ;-)

Palin supports offshore drilling -- yet another reason why "The Ba...", I mean, GOP partisans, like her.

Measured in millimeters though.  I mean, she was mayor of Wissala (~5,000 people when she was mayor) and before that she was a journalist.

She's no Maggie Thatcher.

Ok... please stop.

No, she doesn't.  Not by a long shot.

Wow...her husband is a commercial fisherman and oil guy.

Bad choice.  If McCain wanted to pick a conservative female, he should've gone with Hutchison.  The only thing that makes Palin a better pick of the two is that Palin is easier on the eyes, nothing else.

This guy Miamia has hit the nail upon the head.  Good job.

Silly flash in the pan VP picks don't really help.  I think its been proven in the past that the safe, responsible, 'experienced' pick is usually the best.

There you go Naso :D

()

Well, I guess Palin shows that sex in the oval office doesn't have to be a bad thing.

Hutchison said no.

Ah, a voice of reason.

People are acting like McCain has already died and Palin is the one running for President.

Help.

Wow, these are some joke poll results.

This is comedy at its finest.

I love looking at these threads years later to know how ridiculous we can all sound.

Yes, she was a political catastrophe for reasons that few knew at the time. She had a poor understanding of political geography. She didn't realize that mockery of the other side (think of Ann Richards' "Poor George -- he was born with  a silver foot in his mouth!") implodes. She failed to recognize the power of technology in sending a message to a wildly-cheering crowd that the majority of Americans finds insulting gets to those who can feel insulted. Thus the "Real America" of cattle pastures, corn and cotton fields, and small towns went for her, but the not-so-real America where the People live (cities and suburbs) did not like it. People are where the asphalt and concrete are. 

She gave one good speech -- and after that she made far too many gaffes.

She was a good pick at first, for solidifying the conservative base, but otherwise she was a pretty awful one.

Haha, fail, me.

To be fair, this was the totally reasonable position considering what I knew at the time.

With the housing market collapse, prices of oil, and Iraq there wasn't much of a chance for the Republican Party. Had McCain picked Huckabee or Crist he would've done as well as Romney did. Running mates set aside, McCain would've lost about 55-44 rather than 53-46.