Talk Elections

As for the Bush Bouce - "What goes up, must come down...."

http://www.icrsurvey.com/ICRInTheNews/Presidential_Tracker_0907.html

Bush up 11 among independents and only 1 overall.  I don't buy that one.

You are 100% correct

The pollsters are having a bad week.

The village idiots at Time and Newsweek have Bush +11, and now ICR says it's tied.

I would love to see more of this ICR poll, but something is just plain wrong.

REGISTERED voters. Unlike LIKELY voters, which would be the polls that actually matter.

Lets take a quick peek at their last poll.

http://www.icrsurvey.com/ICRInTheNews/Presidential_Tracker.html (http://www.icrsurvey.com/ICRInTheNews/Presidential_Tracker.html)

They had Bush at 45.3% and Kerry at 48%.  Bush is now at 48.2%.  They call this a 2 point bounce.  Either they are bad at math, have a really strict rounding error, or intentionally tried to lowball the bounce in their report.

Also, we all pretty much agree that Bush was not down nearly 3% heading into his convention.  He was up between 1 and 3% in Vorlon's rolling poll average.

WIthout seeing the internals I will wager they have a too high proportion of democrats.

Also, this poll was done as part of their omnibus marketing research.  Their respondents got asked political questions in the middle of being asked a lot of marketing research questions.

Mddem, I did not expect you to get this desperate for good news for Kerry.

Poll was from Sept. 1-5, so it includes:
Just before Bush's speech
Just after Bush's speech
The Labor Day weekend

Bleh.  We're just going to have to wait until things settle down.

If the independents are swinging to Bush by double digit, you'd have to assume either:

1) Bush is losing a lot more Republicans than Kerry is losing Democrats.  That I don't believe for a second.

or

2) There are a hell of a lot more Democrats in this poll than Republicans.  I pick door #2.

No way to really know

If we ballpark Republicans at 90% / 5% for Bush

and

If we ballpark Democrats at 85% / 10% for Kerry

then

This would imply a party ID breakout of

Dems 39%
GOP 32%
Indy 29%

+/- a huge magin of error :)

Hey... it's one more poll :)

There is no reason for your optimism. Kerry is in a very bad shape.
The numbers now are probably around the 51:47 in favor of Bush.
Because of Kerry's stupidity on Iraq some more millions will lose their health insurance and more Americans (not Kerry) will go below the poverty line.

Yes, if Kerry is not elected MILLIONS are doomed to poverty.

YES! The more Americans that don't have health insurance, the better.

   You guys need to expand your world a bit more beyond talk radio pundits.

Talk radio?  I figured Shira was getting her quotes from Franken.

Just as Time and Newsweek having Bush up 11, this having Bush up only 1 is ridiculous.  We can all agree Bush's lead is at least 3 right now.  Whether Kerry will recover remains up in the air

I agree that the lead is probably 3 or 4.  Time and Newsweek are nutty and ICB looks dumb because niether candidate is winning independents by 11 and tied nationally.

My figures agree with yours.

This approaches a CBS or LA Times poll for loading.

Nice Poke Tredrick :)  
 I don't know anything about this firm other than their last poll in August seemed reasonable. I was just surprised that nobody saw this one out there before I.

Nahhh.....No worries here (YET)! Bush I say is probably up by 3% in the real world - That ain't a huge lead by any measure......

I have never  had the chance to listen to Franken.

The polls do seem to be rather erratic at the moment.

Dave

Once the polls settle down it will be a dead heat again.

The polls will sto being so close when America realizes how bad bush is