Talk Elections

Obama 47
McCain 45
Barr 2
Nader 2


Break-downs by demographics here

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/11/135228/469/887/595077

Interesting that you can gauge all these polls simply by partisan breakdown and a seven to eight point spread between Dems and GOP gives you a push mostly.

Party ID:

Dem: 36%
IND: 29%
REP: 26%
Oth/Refused: 9%


these explains that...

Bleh. I remember reading polls with wishful thinking in 2004 and don't have the stomach or desire to do it again this year.

They need to switch the independent and republican % around. I doubt democrats have a 10 point party advantage currently.

Another tracking poll to add to the list. The breakdowns are especially helpful, although I would have to agree with one of the above posters; the party ID breakdowns are a bit generous to the Democrats.

Dems have a 10% or 11% party ID advantage nationally right now, so this is right in line.

That is odd, but their numbers do seem reasonable. They just gave McCain a 17 point lead in North Carolina.

Which planet is this?

I bet a decent slice of that Other/refused is Republicans.

No way there is a 10 point disparity in party ID.  Perhaps there is a 7-9 point margin in the 'generic D vs R ballot for congress' but actual party ID is more like Dem + 4-6.

I am guessing it is about 7 and will be about 4 or 5 by election day. This will be enough to give Obama a 2 or 3 point victory.

It's cool to see the demographic breakdown. :)

They did. Not too sure about it now. This is from gallup:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110215/GOP-Increase-Party-After-Convention-Unusual.aspx

Seemingly, cut the Democratic advantage in half. Perhaps former Republicans are coming home now that McCain is "leading" the party. Either that or Saintly Sarah has 'em swooning

Dave

Dave Hawk, what is your opinion of sarah palin?

My opinion? Well, she's the Republican presidential nominee ... vice-presidential nominee rather, who thinks she is above scrutiny and beyond repproach, well, because she's a woman

Dave

Are we going to sticky this tracking poll too?

And what about the IA tracking poll?

Rasmussen-world, although that was pre-conventions.

If we're stickying Diageo, we should sticky this one.

Actually, in the 15,000 interviews conducted by Rasmussen in August 2008, the partisan ID gap had shrunk to 5.7%

The 10% or so gaps showing in the summer were in some ways artificial and a consequence of the historic and dramatic Obama/Clinton primary battle.

Interestingly, Rasmussen has noted in his data so far in September that the partisan gap has shrunk substantially again in September (possibly as the result of the Palin pick)

I do not believe that your statement about a 10% democratic advantage in partisan ID is supported by current polling.

Summary of Party Affiliation
September 1, 2008         
 Republican Democrat Other R - D Quarterly 
2008   
Aug 33.2% 38.9% 28.0% -5.7%   
Jul 31.6% 39.2% 29.2% -7.6%     
Jun 31.5% 41.0% 27.5% -9.5% -9.9%   
May 31.6% 41.7% 26.6% -10.1%     
Apr 31.4% 41.4% 27.2% -10.0%   
Mar 32.1% 41.1% 26.8% -9.1% -8.1% 
Feb 31.8% 41.5% 26.7%

Friday - 12 September, 2008:

Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 46% (+1)

To a Moderator: Sticky it please.

To JFern: Remove "New" from the heading please.

Noticed their slightly oddish regional definitions (OK, TX and CO in the Midwest? Huh?), calculated 2004 results by these regions:

Northeast Kerry 55.5 Bush 43.4
South        Bush 55.9 Kerry 43.3
Midwest    Bush 53.2 Kerry 46.0
West         Kerry 50.1 Bush 48.5

Compared to their polling (and I do note this is at the Obaman end of current polling) of
Northeast Obama 55 McCain 37
South        McCain 54 Obama 38
Midwest    Obama 50 McCain 43
West         Obama 48 McCain 44

Just for jokes' sake, applying an intra-regional uniform swing would cause Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, and New Mexico (but not Nevada. Just barely not.) to flip.

Hm. Probably just too few Texans in that Midwest sample.

Saturday - 13 September, 2008:

McCain - 47% (+1)
Obama - 47% (nc)

If DailyKos is showing a tie, McCain is winning.

Especially coming from that joke source.

Just because you wish it to be true doesn't make it so.

Obviously, because Daily Kos does not have an agenda whatsoever.

Apparently, they over represent Democrats.  So even after that, McCain's tied.

Daily Kos has an agenda. But Research 2000, whon they contracted to do polling, did not.

Research 2000 over weighted the Democratic sample.

They have McCain up 7 among independents. If that is true, they HAVE to be oversampling Dems in order to get a tie.

If MAC wins Indies by 7 on election day, he wins comfortably.

"Oversampling" and "overrepresenting" are two very different things. Oversampling can mean you're overrepresenting, but it doesn't require it to be so.

With any poll, there are tiny methodological differences that might make a difference.  I was referring to this before in comparisons of Gallup to the 'bots.  If we can identify those, compensate for them, we might be able to find the real numbers (with "good" samples).  I'm looking at things to eliminate the "noise."

R2000 under weighted the Rep sample.

Rather than argue about a pollster's bias we could compare what they predicted in 2004 versus what actually happened...?

Methodologically, Del Ali at Y2K models/weights/stratifies his data really heavily - more so than most pollsters.  This is not bad per se, it has both ups and down.  Usually when he is close, he is really close, when he misses, he misses by a lot.. :)

BTW - If I missed a Y2K poll from 2004, let me know, I will toss it in this chart....

()

If you look over their 8 polls in 2004, other than Florida they were actually pretty darn good.

Taken as a whole, on average they pulled about 2% to the Democratic side, which is historically what this firm does - they have a slight democratic bias.

R2K is not a joke firm, they know what they are doing.

Del Ali their principal pollster has a long personal association with the Democrats which optically looks bad teaming up with DailyKos.

I think if DailyKos really wanted credibility they should have hired a firm with deep blue GOP roots - such as Public Opinion Strategies, Ayers HcHenry, or maybe Clearwater Associates.

I would add about 2% to the GOP side with this firm, but that is just an opinion.  Kinda like Strategic Vision, except going the other way... :)

My 2 cents worth :)

At least they are willing to release ALL internals of their tracking poll, unlike the major pollsters.

I actually do congratulate DailyKos for what they are doing.

My point however is that given the nature of their site, regardless of whom they select as their pollster there will be charges of bias. 

Picking a firm with a slight democratic bias, and a principle pollster with long ties to the Democratic party does not help this perception.

I still think hiring a firm with GOP roots, or perhaps a joint effort between two firms, one GOP, one Dem, may have been a better solution in terms of public perception.

The mainstream media treats Zogby and sometimes Zogby Interactive polls the same as regular polls, so I don't know if it really matters.

Just yesterday I saw Maddow stick in a Zogby poll with Barr getting 11% in New Hampshire along with other polls.

To be fair Maddow has very poor knowledge of polls and campaign tactics. She really relied on David Bender to talk about these issues on her radio show. She is much more knowledgeable about real issues though. Of course I would expect someone on her staff to trash the Zogby poll, but maybe they wanted to create a certain perception.

Bump. Not sure why this isn't stickied yet...

The tragic things is that bad polls and bad journalism are made for each other. 

If you are a trash news outfit more interested in ratings and revenue that actual information you want polls that bounce around like crazy and show a different candidate in the lead every day. (ie Zogby)

Can you imagine basing a tv segment on  Rasmussen in 2004.....?

"And for the 47th consecutive day Bush is ahead just barely at the edge of the margin of error...
This marks the 87th time in the last 92 days he has been ahead by 2 or 3 points....the other days he had leads of 1 and 4 points respectively..."

Pretty boring...

Better to have California tied, Idaho in play, and a nail biter in Vermont...

You mean ALL television journalism when you say "bad journalism," right?

I notice a lot of citing different polls.  Zogby has McCain leading despite Barr getting 11% in New Hampshire but Survey USA has Obama behind 20% in North Carolina.  Analysis follows.

Or, what is more common, citing some sketchy poll taken a couple days before to indicate a huge drop/gain after some legitimate poll shows the race close.

... and Survey USA is one of the top-ranked pollsters according to 538's performance analysis.

Actually, the fact that Survey USA now and then puts out a real stinker of a poll shows that they are a real and honest firm.  The make the calls, add them up, and put out the results, they don't fudge anything. (unlike a few firms)

SurveyUSA will likely do a few thousand polls if you add up all the house, senate, governor, statehouse, etc races between now and November.  You do that many, and the odd one blows up.

Other than the deep south where they tend to underpoll the GOP a bit (not that it matters, +20 and +30 are for all practical purtposes the same result) their record is pretty decent.

Oh, I like Survey USA, they are one of my top five fav pollsters.  I just used them for an example because they are easy to knock and they fit into the "the media is schilly" theme.

You don't have to tell me twice that they can pull a good poll out of their butts!

Pollsters make a profit on polls.

They probably preferred to let that profit go to a friend of theirs.

Sunday - 14 September, 2008:

Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 45% (-2)

Hmm. Obama gets only 35% of Whites and trails by 5 among Independents, while getting 8% less support from DEMs than McCain is getting from Republicans. And he still leads by 2 ?

Their party and race breakdown is certainly crazy ... 35%D, 30%I, 26% R, 9% Others (?)

13% African-American ? 13% Latino ??

How convienent that the night a Obama +3 sample rolls off a new one comes on. Couldn't be any bias in there could it?

I don't think you can call that bias. But when an Obama + 3 replaces an Obama +3 you would expect there to be no change in the 3 day average.  Instead Obama somehow gained 2 points in the average - a result that would require a + 9 Obama day given the +3 falloff. Sounds like fuzzy math.

This poll seems like BS.

This poll might make Zogby look accurate.

(This is the worst thing I've ever said about the DailyKoz.)

LOL

This is a LV poll right?

I think it would be more credible for a liberal site like DK to do a RV poll or at least disclose their LV model. Also have they disclosed if they are adjusting the weighting?

I personally think DailyKos + Zogby would have been a perfect match :)

Kook/Hack overload.

More trash from the Kooks:

Obama 48%
McCain 45%

The internals look decent.

Did you look at the part where the party breakdown is D-35/R-26?

That is not decent.

You are forgetting the fact that ChrisFromNJ does not live on the same planet as the rest of us.

Dem partisan advantage is generally estimated between 5%-10% depending on the poll. The good thing is that R2000 discloses all of their internals.

have they released their LV model?

I bet they are factoring in higher than usual African American and Youth voting (which may or may not be a good bet). Regardless, they should show their RV numbers and/or reveal their LV model

They seem to be factoring in significantly higher Latino voting, which is an even shakier bet.

They have blacks and latinos both at 13% which is pretty questionable IMO.

9-16

Obama 48 (nc)
McCain 44 (-1)

Please sticky this, and please remove DailyKos from the title, as I think it has been irrefutably decided by arguments in other threads that when a partisan organisation merely publishes or orders the poll, their name doesn't get included with the Poll title. Thanks.

They need to reduce the latino vote from 13% to about 10. Also increase the other/asian vote. White % should go up to about 75. That would still be an Obama lead though but maybe more like 1-2%

I find it quite amusing that people care so much about this.  What do you have against it being listed as a DailyKos poll?  Worried that the fact that the most pro-Obama tracking poll out there would be taken less seriously if everyone knew that it was a highly partisan, Obama-backing site that financed the whole operation?

(In any case, there are significant problems with this poll that go beyond who pays for it.)

Trashy, Trashy poll.

The labeling is a petty issue. However, so is the refusal to sticky it. Not sure what that accomplishes...

If we could only prove the last part of your first sentence...

Personally, I think it merits being stickied.  But labeling it "DailyKos" is just worthwhile, basic information that will prevent duplication and reduce confusion.  (i.e., more people know it as the DailyKos tracking poll than the Research 2000 tracking poll.)

I agree, it just doesn't matter.

I have absolutely nothing against it being listed as a DailyKos poll. Surprisingly enough, I like DailyKos and hope this makes more people visit the site. But you must admit that there has been a complete binfest from a good 10-15 people on the other threads at the mere notion of putting "Fox" in front of a Rasmussen poll, as if their God had been offended, which rather amused me. So there :P

I agree there may well be problems with their poll, particularly their minority and partisan numbers. But the beauty is the crosstabs are there so we can check, refute, change them to our whim - and best of all, compare with the final result in November. (Well, not me, but somebody can if they want to). And of course, don't forget it is a tracker, the point of which is not the actual numbers, but the trends they report. Which, for today, are in exact agreement with Gallup and Ras.

Oh, I can easily explain that: The person who suggested the addition clearly did solely to try and call the poll into question and suggest that Rasmussen is fudging numbers for Republicans.  Naturally, when ChrisFromNJ suggests something, there's going to be reflexive opposition.

To clarify: The only Rasmussen/Fox polls put up here were the five state polls done yesterday.  Fox does not sponsor the tracking poll.

I see I have to explain this point once again. Rasmussen is a well-known, respectable pollster with a great track record and which regularly conduct polls. Sometimes they'll give a media outlet publishing rights on some of those polls. That doesn't make the polls belong to that media outlet. I'm not too familiar with this poll, but as I understand it DailyKos went to Research2000 and told them "do these polls, we'll pay for it". That is a somewhat different situation. I'm not calling this poll thrash either, mind you.

Finally, Fox News does not have a history, as far as I know, of bias in their polling. Biased reporting is another matter, of course. I don't know if DailyKos has a record there, but it does make them more suspicious, imo.

Wednesday - September 17, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 48% (nc)
McCain: 44% (nc)

Daily sample Obama +5

Internals: http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/09/17

BTTT

9/18/08

Obama   49%
McCain    43%

09/19/2008

Obama   49%
McCain   42%

WTF ever. I'd love to believe it, but this balloon has floated out of the zone of plausibility for me.

Looks good to me. :)

The internals are just downright hilarious.

For those who post on Daily Kos (I was banned many moons ago, soon after registering), you should tell them that they need to change the party ID numbers on this poll:

Dem 391/1100 = 35.55% Dem (36%)
GOP 278/1100 = 25.27% GOP (25%)
Ind 331/1100 = 30.09% Ind (30%)
Oth 100/1100 = 9.09% Oth (9%)

And tell them to stop somehow finding all Palin haters in their polls. They actually have her as a -5 NET UNFAVORABLE.

They are a joke.

lol

What's with stickying this now ?

It's stickied now because Obama has a 6 point lead in the poll now.

()

Sarah Failan.

Boy, them Kossacks is clever.  In that special 4chan-ish Asperger way.

09/20/2008

Obama   50% (+1)
McCain   42% (nc)


I'd be interested to see what the numbers would look like reweighted to a 5-point partisan gap.

Um.

Gallup got basically the same results. McCain is sinking. Maybe he shouldn't have picked Dan Quayle with a vagina for VP.

Weighed to Rasmussen:
Obama 48.04%
McCain 44.80%

Last nights sample Obama +7, is actually better for McCain than the previous two nights which were Obama +8. McCain has the momentum!

You've piqued my curiosity:  Are you being serious? :P

The actual raw numbers aren't the important part of a tracking poll - the significant information is the trend. This poll's trend is in line with Gallup, so I don't see why people aren't taking it more legitimately.

Yes, the previous two nights were Obama 50%-McCain 42%. Last night was Obama 49%-McCain 42%. Clearly Obama's support is eroding!

At least at the 5% confidence level.

Sunday September 21, 2008
Obama 49%
McCain 42%

McCain has the momentum! Last nights sample was only Obama +6!

Erosion of the bump.  Still, looking at the internal dynamics of this thing, if McCain starts getting back above Obama +4, he'll probably start leading nationally again.  That would be my guess.

Am I going to have to bump this one???

Monday, September 22, 2008
Obama 49 (nc)
McCain 43 (+1)

Futher erosion of Obama's lead. Last nights individual sample was Obama +4.

MAC IS BACK!

I still don't understnad why they even want to conduct this poll.

Stickied to satisfy Lewis and to assuage any other concerns of my conservative bias. :)

Oh yeah, and to stop annoying Sam with having to bump it every day.

Please unsticky this thread as this poll has no credibility. And if I find Free Republic running a poll then I full expect it to be sticked.

:D

I'll only be bumping it up when it shows results not so great for Democrats.  If the results are great for Democrats, I can guarantee that *other people* will beat me.

Agreed about credibility, but Battleground isn't much better, and the sticky is more a matter of convenience for those posting the numbers than anything.

Now that this has been stickied, can I please ask the Daily Kos kids again to tell their mentor:

DEM 389/1100 = 35.36%
GOP 281/1100 = 25.45%
IND 331/1100 = 30.09%
OTH 100/1100 = 9.09%

Which means the sample is now technically 35D-25R-30I-9O.  Not 35D-26R-30I-9O.

Thank you.  :)

You know, you're more likely to get a response from e-mailing him directly than I'd get from being the 357th post on the thread, pointing it out. He reads his e-mail, but who knows if he reads the comments. He won't know who you are if you e-mail and mention the change concisely; I really doubt he cross-checks neutral e-mail against the banned e-mail list.

Tuesday September 23, 2008
Obama 49%(nc)
McCain 43%(nc)

Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Obama 48 (-1)
McCain 44 (+1)

What would this be with a re-fixed party ID... say Rasmussen's?

Any help would be appreciated.

Presently, since there are too many Ind/Oth in the sample (imho), the difference is not great:

McCain 45.60
Obama 47.65

Thanks. That's about what I expected.

Seriously, did you get a chance to e-mail him? He keeps trumpeting how great he is for revealing the internals...

Nah, but I should do that though.  Today.

This poll's partisan breakdowns are the same as Gallup's, according to this post:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/24/7286/97809/238/607946

"Of interest for those questioning the R2K demographics is this post yesterday from Gallup:

Democrats have re-established a double-digit advantage over Republicans in party affiliation, with 49% of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats or leaning to the Democratic Party, and 39% identifying as Republicans or leaning to the Republican Party. This is a shift from immediately after the Republican National Convention, when Democrats enjoyed their smallest advantage of the year, leading only 47% to 42%.

Self-identified party ID is a variable, and something poll junkies will always want to discuss, as it affects topline numbers. It's great when pollsters are transparent about their internals – a hat tip to everyone who publishes this!!

Pollster        D     R     I     (Dem-Rep)
Research 2000:  35    26    30    +9
Diageo/Hotline: 41    36    19    +5   
Rasmussen:      39    33.5  27.5  +5.5
Gallup:         35    26    33    +9
ABC:            38    28    29    +10

Gallup, in other words, has Democrats +9 to R2K's +9 when leaners are excluded, whereas Diageo/Hotline (+5) is closer to Rasmussen (+5.5). Who is right? Let's see the 11/4/08 exit polls. In the meantime, R2K's assumption seems as reasonable as Gallup's. Adding leaners to the self-identified party ID for Gallup makes the D's +10 (i.e., only a slight change), lending credence to the idea that it's okay to push leaners – you won't radically change the results."

I agree. That's as bad as J. J.'s insults.

Yeah, this is the post I alluded to above.

It's actually 35D, 25R, 30 I, which I promise that I will point out, brittain33.  :)

9/25/08

Obama    49%
McCain     43%

Looking like a good day for the tracking polls so far, joke and non-joke.

Friday - September 26, 2008:

Obama - 48% (-1)
McCain - 43% (nc)

Saturday - September 27, 2008:

Obama - 49% (+1)
McCain - 43% (nc)

About the same as Rasmussen Reports for today.

Sunday - September 28, 2008:

Obama - 50% (+1)
McCain - 43% (nc)

Yesterday's sample only:

Obama - 51%
McCain - 42%

Hopefully Gallup and Ras will agree.

Rumor is that Gallup will show Obama+8 today.

Monday, 9/29/08

Obama    51%
McCain    42%

Tuesday- September 30, 2008:

Obama - 51% (nc)
McCain - 41% (-1)

2nd successive +11 daily sample yesterday

Wednesday - October 1st, 2008:

Obama - 51% (nc)
McCain - 41% (nc)

Thursday- October 2nd, 2008:

Obama - 51% (nc)
McCain - 40% (-1)

This poll is pretty god damn absurd.

why?  doesn't seem to be too far off the mark to me

Obama is leading by 11 points? Come on now.

sorry, don't know how I misread that, I subtracted and got 9 instead of 11  ???

It's got a bit of a Democratic lean (3 points or so). We'll see if they're doing turnout right or Rasmussen is doing turnout right come election day. Either way, Obama is clearly ahead, and into '88 landslide territory at this point.

Friday- October 3rd, 2008:

Obama - 51% (nc)
McCain - 40% (nc)

Todays numbers adjusted for a more reasonable E-Day composition:

White (76%): Obama 39%, McCain 50%
African-American (11%): Obama 94%, McCain 3%
Latino (10%): Obama 67%, McCain 21%
Asians/Others (3%): Obama 83%, McCain 4%

Obama 49.2%, McCain 40.6%

Dailykos/R2000 is based on 73% White, 13% African-American, 13% Latino and 1% Other.

Underestimating both McCain's white and Latino support. It's a dirty little trick they pull in their polls, instead of raising Obama's number(which would raise suspicion), they just move all of McCains support to Undecided. It happens at the rate of a point a day in each of the internals. I have a spreadsheet with the internals from everyday of the poll. It's striking how they are manipulating the numbers. Here are a few examples:

60+ on September 11
McCain 54%, Obama 39%
60+ Today
McCain 45%, Obama 42%

McCain favorability on September 11
55% favorable, 44% unfavorable
McCain favorability Today
42% favorable, 45% unfavorable

So apparently Kos wants us to believe that 13 percent of seniors are now undecided when there were only 7 percent undecided 3 weeks ago. Yeah right.

And now they want us to believe only 87% can form an opinion on McCain when 99% had some type of opinion on him 3 weeks ago. They are a joke.

EDIT One more example:
Latino on September 11
Obama 67%-McCain 28%
Latino Today
Obama 67%-McCain 21%

So Obamas support hasn't grown but 7% of McCains has moved to undecided? Yeah right.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108040/Candidate-Support-Race.aspx

Rasmussen has long not shown a breakdown by race, but when they did they had Obama up by 30 or so among Latinos and that was when the race was close nationally. McCain can be really happy if he gets a third of Latinos right now or on E-Day.

But 21%? Thats one out of 5, he has to be doing better than that.

Saturday - October 4, 2008:

Obama - 52% (+1)
McCain - 40% (nc)

Obama seems to be polling to high IMHO.

Research 2000's weighting is 35% Democrat; 26% Republican; 30% Independent; 9% Other/Refused

However, using Rasmussen's weighting for this past week, Democrat 39.0%, Republican 33.6%; Unaffiliated 27.40% and applying it here, I get:

Obama: Democrat (88%) 34.320, Republican (7%) 2.252, Unaffiliated (50%) 13.70 = 50.372% (50% rounded)

McCain: Democrat (7%) 3.120, Republican (84%) 28.224, Unaffiliated (38%) 10.412 = 41.756% (42% rounded)

That's an Obama lead of 8% rounded

Dave

Sunday - October 5, 2008:

Obama - 52% (nc)
McCain - 40% (nc)

Saturday sample (363 LV, MoE = 5%):

Obama - 53%
McCain - 40%

Gallup's most recent aggregated weekly tracking data (Sep. 22-28) shows Obama with 41% of whites (McCain is at 52%) and 65% among Hispanics (McCain is at 26%)

Dave

Monday - October 6, 2008:

Obama - 52% (nc)
McCain - 40% (nc)

R2K's Obama figures are similar to Gallup's and Rasmussens'. McCain's are much lower, thus resulting in this huge gap. Are they just not pushing leaners as much?

The difference is that they have Barr and Nader included, based on voluntary mentioning.

Tuesday - October 7, 2008:

Obama - 52% (nc)
McCain - 41% (+1)

Today's numbers adjusted for a more reasonable turnout:

Democrats (40%): Obama by 88-8
Republicans (35%): McCain by 85-7
Independents (25%): Obama by 51-39

Obama 50%, McCain 43% - and their numbers start making more sense.

FYI: R2000 uses 35% DEM, 26% REP, 30% IND and 9% OTHER

Wednesday - October 7, 2008:

Obama - 51% (-1)
McCain - 41% (nc)

Thursday - October 9, 2008:

Obama - 51% (nc)
McCain - 41% (nc)

Wednesday Sample (360 LV, MoE = 5%):

Obama - 52% (+2)
McCain - 40% (-2)

Given the 4%-jump for Obama yesterday and Zogby was showing a 2-point jump, I expect the beginning of the Obama-debate-bounce.

But lets wait for Rasmussen and Gallup (well, can Gallup get even any higher ?)

This is about as legit as Zogby.... so it is all irrelevent.

The MOE makes it horrible, in addtion to its biased polling.

sticky

Sticky

lol, Republicans are fun.

Friday- October 9, 2008:

Obama - 52% (+1)
McCain - 40% (-1)

Thursday's single day sample was +14, Obama's largest single day lead so far.

It's Daily Kos, dude. That's like JJ, StatesRights, and I deciding to do a poll. Actually, this is still worse. We actually understand that an inaccurate poll is worthless.

DailyKos is not doing a poll. Research2000, a respected and non-partisan polling firm is doing the poll. DailyKos is giving them the money to do the poll and getting the results in return. There's no conspiracy here; DailyKos is interested in winning elections, and I don't really get how fake polls would help them to that end.

But in their poll you have to subtract about 2% from Obama's numbers and add another 2% to McCain's and the overall numbers are reasonable.

There's no way their party breakdown is accurate.

Saturday - October 10, 2008:

Obama - 52% (nc)
McCain - 40% (nc)

The have some problems with their weighting; if they would fix that, I'd be happy with it.

Sunday - October 12, 2008:

Obama - 53% (+1)
McCain - 40% (nc)

Monday - October 13, 2008:

Obama - 52% (-1)
McCain - 40% (nc)