Talk Elections

I had to do a double-take when I saw this one, but here it comes:

http://www.wthr.com/global/story.asp?s=9029011

By all means, let this poll influence Obama to dump his precious resources into IN.

Selzer again...

These state polls are certainly coming out at a furious pace these days.

The poll was done by Selzer & Co., who 538.com ranked as the most accurate pollster during the primary season:

538.com Pollster Rankings (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings)

Here is the Indianapolis Star writeup on the poll:

Link (http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080917/NEWS0502/80917076/-1/ARCHIVE)

Neat. I was worried that McCain would get a North Dakota or Montana-esque bounce in Indiana, but so far it seems like he has not.

No doubt propelled by the awesome reverse coattails of Jill Long-Thompson.

Being that it's an Indiana poll...isn't that n=1?

It's easier to be the most accurate (and least accurate) when you only poll one primary (not a primary actually, but a caucus).

Indiana was a primary...?

Now that I'm looking it up, they did poll Indiana couple of weeks before the primary.  Had it as Obama +3 - barely within the MOE.

But what else did they poll, because a one-point miss in Iowa and a four-point miss in Indiana does not give me a 0.75 accuracy average.

I know she does work for the Detroit Free Press in Michigan.  I've always heard very good things about Ann Selzer, but I do not believe this poll.

Too much information. ERROR. ERROR !

I´ve created the German Wikipedia page on 2008 State polling and I used to update it every day, but now each day about 20-30 polls are released ...

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umfragen_zur_Pr%C3%A4sidentschaftswahl_in_den_Vereinigten_Staaten_2008_nach_Bundesstaaten

As for the poll: Indiana will be considerably closer than 2004, but I don´t think Obama can win. I would be happy though if CNN is not able to call IN after the polls are closed on Nov. 4 ...

They had an OK Michigan poll:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2620080111040

which showed Romney up by 5 (actual result: Romney wins by 9).  Better than the polls that actually had McCain winning, I guess.

This is getting annoying!! Obama will never win Indiana! Trash poll.

Isn't that a steakhouse? Sam Selzers?

ahahahahahahah

mccain is losing in indiana

indiana!

hahaha

how the mighty have fallen

stick a fork in mccain

Please, for the love of Christ, go away.

whoa

you go away you stupid son of a bitch

nah i'm just messin', you're not really stupid

She does the polling for the Detroit Free Press?

The Hoosier state loves corn, Peyton Manning, and Barack Obama?


Somehow I doubt this poll, but hey Ill take it.

Must explain why McCain is spending all that time in Indiana.  Oh wait, he hasn't been there.

I agree!

Signed,

- Al Gore and Tennessee in 2000

Wow, does this mean Obama needs the Kerry states+IA+NM+IN? Make that Kerry states+IA+IN???

Not even I would buy that one! Good to see, though.

way to buy into trash polls, troll

This thread is great.

I've had a lot of fun reading these threads about how Obama couldn't possibly win in states such as Indiana or North Carolina.  To be honest I didn't think it would happen either because of the Bradley effect, but I think we should all show a little more respect to statisticians.  They know a lot more about their science than most of us do.

I remember this thread.

Most of the prognosticators here are just armchair pollsters really. Each poll released is a piece of evidence worthy of consideration.

LOL

Obama can never win states like Georgia and Tennessee, especially not in 2012!!

:)

Apparently saying something is impossible here makes it happen...

....:P

LOLOL, Republican hacks (includes Sam Spade).

That's why I only make fun of Insider Advantage and SUSA polls (and Zogby, obv).

...bah

since when were Obama's resources precious anyway?  He was advertising in Atlanta, West Virginia, and North Dakota.

Well McCain did win the money war you know. [/JJ]

Yeah but Ronnie is not crazy insane OCD like JJ

Republicans=Fail