Talk Elections

So it has already began As I suspected it would. Everywhere you look On Politico, on Yahoo's front page on real clearpolitics, People are whining are moaning that perhaps could lose because of racism. Everywhere on the blogs I frequent there is gnashing of teeth about how Obama should be doing much better in the polls  and the reason he isn't is because of race

Meanwhile as I walk Out the door and Get My Cleveland Plain dealer There is A big front page
story about How Mccain is up  48 to 42 in Ohio.. and they break the poll numbers down by race and get this Obama is up 98% to 0% among the black vote YES YOU HEARD ME RIGHT MCCAIN IS POLLING 0% OF THE BLACK VOTE



Let Obama stand on his merits. Isn't that what Dr. King meant when he said "I dream of a time when a man will be judged on his character and not on the color of his skin." Why can't liberal diehards follow Dr. King's wishes? Or, do they think we should run an "affirmative action" election, discriminating against whites?

I already know what people responses are gonna be African Americans already Overwhelmingly go for the democrat..Fine Ill concede that point what about in the   Democratic primaries where you had 2 candidates very close on all the major issues  and you go into Phildeldelphia county An Obama gets 92% of the black vote can you people honestly tell me people were voting for Obama's health care plan

There is no doubt that people in every nationality are kinda clannish  and they tend to vote for their own folks and there is nothing wrong with  it is natural  I don't have a problem with
98% of the African American vote going for Obama because he is one of them, but I don't have a problem with white people saying you know what were going with Mccain because he
he is one of Us

With all  that said, if the race vote  provides McCain's margin of victory, I'll take the win. Who says a little evil can't be used to do some good. :-)

I'm not troubled by my position at all  because the same thing worked against my 2006 candidate for Governor of OH and Swann in PA and i didn't hear not ONE  democrat complaining about racism then

Who here has told you that if you don't vote for Obama, you're a racist?

One could argue that all else being equal, you'd for Obama, except that he is black... then you are racist.

But if you like McCain and want to vote for him, it certainly doesn't make you racist.  Anybody who uses that argument is pretty lame.

Someone clearly didn't do too well in English in elementary school.

     I haven't heard that supporting McCain makes one racist either. Then again, I live in a city where 85% of people support Obama, so I don't know how much that means. ;)

Suck thread.

I didn't know i was getting graded for a collage essay on here...I don't get paid for spelling i get paid for doing other things..and I get paid very well

Stop trolling and learn to spell.

I think you meant learn how to spell.

Before you lecture me learn how to form a correct sentence.

See is it that hard?

I kind of understand what your getting at here Golden Boy, you are angry because some Obama supporters are voting saying that Obama could lose because of Racism, but at the same time If blacks vote overwelmingley for Obama people don't say they are voting out of race. first off all yeah the a lot of blacks support Obama because of his race that should be of no suprise to anyone
given all the struggles  Black  Americans have faced I'm sure a lot of them want to see one of them as president,people vote for people who are like, them catholics vote for catholics, blacks vote for blacks, southerners vote for southerners its just the way it works.

one of the reasons you didn't hear democrats complaining about racism in 06 in Ohio
and PA is because both Blackwell and Swan where Republicans,why would Democrats defend Republican candidates  Democrats are going to look out for there candidates intrests  just as republicans are going to look out for there candidates. I think racism is an issue anytime
you have black candidate or hispanic running for office, I think it would effect some people's votes.

If Obama losses I can't see how people won't say racism could be the reason why given how
toxic this environment is for republicans any democrat should win this election,If  the Dem's
somehow blow this people are going to look for a reason why racism would at least make sense.     

I happen to think Mccain is a strong candidate and he would be competitive even against Hillary although I think she would be proably winning.I just don't think Obama is as strong as of a candidate as people make him out to be. No democrat since Jimmy Carter has won a  majority of the vote, what makes people think that a first term senator from Illinois who 80% of the country didn't know  a year ago was just gonna waltz to victory

I actually have heard the same thing, so, for once, I'm with Ghostmonkey.

Someone also didn't clearly do too well in social studies or has a poor memory and can't remember the 1992, 1996 and 2000 elections.

That or he really sucks at Math.

with all due respect, that's not true Clinton won the popular vote twice and Al Gore won the popular vote in  2000 while losing the electoral college

My bad i mean a majority of the vote..over 50%

No sh!t, they didn't. What do you think the Nader voters would all vote for Bush or something stupid like that?

I see what you mean, but those weren't really competitive to begin with. Blackwell and Swann were up against popular Democrats and seemed like little more than sacrificial lambs to me--but I suspect they lost several percentage points because of race (Blackwell wasn't a really bad candidate like Swann).

The election I like to use as an example of racism helping the Democrats is Louisiana in 2003. If the Republicans ever run Jindal for President, and his Democratic opponent is white, I'll have no problem saying racism helped the Democrat get to 500 electoral votes, just like I have no problem saying racism helped Blanco in 2003.

I can't speak for people elsewhere, but I (and most others, I believe) come to this forum to discuss and analyze elections, and race clearly plays a very major role, especially in a competitive election like Obama vs. McCain. I think most of us can agree that it would be silly to pretend like it isn't a factor.

I agree, I  believe race will be one of the top 3 decisive factors in this race, it has the potential to put either side over the top. African-Americans could have a very dramatic turnout in Virginia and put Obama over the top there, and/or in Ohio or PA resistance to a black candidate could perhaps throw either state to Mccain, I personally just like analyzing all this   and you can't ignore the 300 pound gorilla in the room

I understand how Obama supporters could be upset when they read somewhere about how racism could hurt their candidate, heck I get a little ticked when i read that 97% of African Americans are supporting Obama and 2% are supporting mine 

Actually, you are correct.  "Majority" means more than half and no Democratic candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976 has won more a majority of the popular vote.

Let him pass 5th grade first before you start jumping to conclusions. 

97-2 is probably not an accurate breakdown; 94-6 seems more like it to me.  Besides, that's like a 6-point swing among a demographic that makes up 12% of the U.S. voting population.  In other words, the net effect (without turnout adjustment) is <1%.  With turnout adjustment, I'd be surprised if it reached 1%.

"Reverse-racism" (AKA racism) might limit the overall net damage of Obama due to racism, but he's still going to lose more votes because of it than gain.

Oaksmarts you have to know that Obama won't lead you to victory in Ohio in November, you do know that right?

Title's a bit misleading, since it is only tangentially related to your diatribe.

But it's an interesting analysis. 

Let me see if I have it right.  There are all these articles about how Obama may lose due to racial prejudism.  You are examining the possibility that he may win precisely because of racial prejudism.  This assumes a greater incidence of bigotry among blacks, and your chief line of evidence is the polling data.  It's a subtle point, I suppose.  Most would spin it as "folks simply like to vote for their own kind" but what is that if it isn't racial prejudice?  And, if so, the polling data suggests that, at least among the population sampled in Ohio, black voters are more bigoted than white voters, or at least that black voters have a higher propensity for ethnicity-based voting than white voters. 

I'm not sure it's quite that simple, though.  There are sound demographic/socioeconomic reasons that most black folks vote for Democrats when they vote, and the vote may naturally split about 9 to 1 in favor of the Democrat even without taking into account the fact that Obama is black.  So you could maybe say that the other ten percent--the ten percent that might not have supported the nonblack Democrat--are voting for Obama just because he's black.  And you could probably also reason that ten percent of McCain's white vote are coming just because he's white, if you factor out the white voters and then end up with a 54-43 split for McCain, and could then find the statistic that shows that the split for Republicans over Democrats over the past several elections in Ohio was something more like 49-48 or so.  Then five parts in fifty equals ten percent.  I'm making those last two stats up, of course, but it would show that the propensity for identity-based voting among blacks may not be significantly greater than that among whites.  Do this homework, if you're interested.  If you can show that I'm wrong, then I'll concede.  At least so long as I can't come with a better explanation.

It's amusing that just because you think this guy is a racist hick you jump on his spelling. There are many regular posters who can't spell worth a damn and it is only rarely commented on. And I cannot recall any instance where the majority of responses were solely concerned with spelling.

As a non-native English-speaker I do my best to stay out of language battles though.

As for the issue at hand, there is a racist element to racial discussions where blacks are supposed to be Democrats and if they're not they're viewed as traitors (Uncle Tom, etc). So people like Keyes, Blackwell, Steele or Swann tend to be viewed as non-blacks in a sense.

Thanks for the comment about spelling , As I said before I don't get paid at my job to spell well, I get paid to manage.

I think the Uncle Tom comment is dead on I think someone Like Colin Powell , patriotic military backround and all,  would proably receive 70% less of the Bradley effect as a democrat like Obama would

Focusing on the 2003 election is a bit misleading.  Although racism almost certainly did help Democrats in 2003 in north-central LA and the parishes north of Lake Pontchartrain (Republican strongholds), it did not help nearly as much as it helped Republicans in 1999 and 1995.

2007 Gubernatorial
Blanco(D) 51.95%
Jindal(R) 48.05%

Compare to 2002 Senate race:

Landrieu(D) 51.70%
Terrell(R) 48.30%

Now, Landrieu did have the advantage being the incumbent and Terrell being not a very good candidate, but you can see that the 2002 result between two "white" candidates was pretty similar to the 2007 result.

Compare to the two previous Gubernatorial elections, both involving black Democratic candidates:

1999
Foster(R) 62.17%
Jefferson(D) 29.53%

1995
Foster(R) 63.50%
Fields(D) 36.50%

And, of course, in 1991, the Republicans voted a known Grand Dragon of the KKK into the runoff election.  Luckily, he had to go up against a popular, yet crooked, former governor in that runoff.

As you can see from the data, it is the Republicans who have benefited the most from racism in Louisiana in the last decade or two.

But my home state may be starting to turn the corner on its racist past.  From last year:

2007
Jindal(R) 54.29%
All other major candidates 44.62%

And he actually dominated those Republican stronghold parishes that he had lost in 2003.

Jindal has the potential  to be the Republican Obama, I would be tickled if Obama won in 08 and then Jindal won the Republican nomination in 2012. Two guys of color running for the highest office in the land wouldn't that be a statement on the greatness of this country

It would indeed.  However, Jindal has to make it through four years of the landmine field that is Louisiana politics first.

I think the impact in favor of Obama could be large.

Blacks lately about 88% for the Dems.
Looks like that will come in more like 96%.
Assume a 15% increase in black turnout.
For a demographic that makes up about 12% that is  +2.7%

Ah remember this joke? He kind of mysteriously stopped posting at a certain time...

I also love the "You KNOW Obama won't win Ohio!" stuff.

You were saying?