Talk Elections

Beginning with today's numbers, which are also posted in a thread below. Since there will be new results every day for over a month for this poll, we probably shouldn't crowd the forum discussing it. No request for a sticky, though.

Monday, September 29, 2008

Obama - 49 (+1)
McCain - 42 (nc)

http://www.muhlenberg.edu/studorgs/polling/documents/Release_9_29.pdf

Wonderful news.

Their last 2004 had Kerry up 2, which was quite accurate.

They underestimated Casey by 10 in 2006 and the Republican in the Governor race by 5 though.

I´m in favor of stickying.

Today:

Obama: 49% (nc)
McCain: 41 (-1)

Link to today's release: http://www.muhlenberg.edu/studorgs/polling/documents/Release_sept30.pdf

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Obama - 49 (nc)
McCain - 41 (-1)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTkqosRiyYo (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTkqosRiyYo)

Database entry: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=4220080929033

Are you going to add it every day?

I don't know how I feel about this poll, haha.

I don't think it should be added every day; maybe once every four days so all the data is new? We don't want the Pennsylvania data getting clogged with Muhlenberg polls.

Link to today's release: http://www.muhlenberg.edu/studorgs/polling/documents/Release_10_01.pdf

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Obama - 48 (-1)
McCain - 41 (nc)

Link to today's release: http://www.muhlenberg.edu/studorgs/polling/documents/Release_10_02.pdf

Thursday, October 2, 2008

Obama - 50 (+2)
McCain - 41 (nc)


All the way down to page three simply because I hadn't updated yet today! (Although I see that someone had added this poll to the database.) Maybe we do need a sticky.

Time for McCain to pull out of PA. He needs to focus on CO and VA where he has a chance.

Don't be silly, he has invested more money in PA than any other state and Rasmussen has him down 5-7% nationally.  If McCain were to get down to a 50-50 scenario, it's possible that he would gain disproportionately in Pennsylvania than other states, depending on demographics, that might not be a crazy assumption.

Friday - October 3, 2008:

Obama - 50 (nc)
McCain - 40 (-1)

Link to today's release: http://www.muhlenberg.edu/studorgs/polling/documents/Release_10_03.pdf

Saturday - October 4, 2008:

Obama - 51 (+1)
McCain - 39 (-1)

Time for McCain to abandon PA ... ;)

Not based on a Muhlenberg poll.

Does anyone actually give any credibility to this poll?

The weightings may be suspect, but this poll shows that Obama is gaining ground in Pennsylvania by the day, and I will take that data at face value.

Can you imagine Phil's reaction if McCain actually did abandon PA? LOL.

If this was a Franklin and Marshall poll, I'd give it a great deal of weight.  Other uni polls for PA, I'd give very little weight.

LOL YA!

Very cool. Why did I only now notice this?

Did any other pollster nail PA in 2004?

Today, via RCP:

Obama - 50%
McCain - 40%

McCainOMentum!

No.

Monday, October 6:

Obama: 49 (-1)
Mccain: 38 (-2)

Ughh, this really really sucks.

If McCain had any brains at all he would pull out of PA immediately

I don't care. Let him continue his long road to ruin there. May the RNC sink another 20 Mio. in there and remain 10% behind ...

If McCain pulled out here, he'd essentially signal to the electorate "I quit" and kill his chances here, not to mention every contested downticket race. He has to stay, just to keep up the impression that he thinks he can win the presidency.

Hey, let McCain think he has all the chance in the world in PA.

The more money he spends in PA the more money PA gets to spend...on its seniors - DOH!

PA education needs some help :(.  PA, in general, needs all the help it can get after the Turnpike toll lease fell through.

The news is that Obama has taken a 12-point PA lead in today's Muhlenberg tracking release, which would be 2 points better than yesterday.

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/all-a1_5visit.6620097oct08,0,4733508.story

Thursday, October 9:

Obama - 51% (+1)
McCain - 38% (nc)

Friday, October 10:

Obama - 50% (-1)
McCain - 39% (+1)

This is not a great poll.

Isn't that exactly where the other polls have the state?

But Obama will only win Pennsylvania by 1.5 points.

No, this just the gap closing a bit.  I don't think this is a great poll, even it it does show some tightening.

Considering that this tracking poll is in line with the polls released by the big guys, I'd say its a meaningful poll.

26-Sep +4
27-Sep +5
28-Sep +6 (+8 Franklin & Marhsall)
29-Sep +7 (+15 Quinnipiac)
30-Sep +8
1-Oct +7
2-Oct +9
3-Oct +10
4-Oct +12
5-Oct +10 (+15 SurveyUSA)
6-Oct +10 (+10 West Chester, +13 Rasmussen)
7-Oct +9 (+14 Strategic Vision)
8-Oct +12
9-Oct +13
10-Oct +11


Compared to the numbers from the big boys, hell even from the RIGHT LEANING SurveyUSA, the tracking numbers are actually a bit lower.  So if anything, it is an underestimate.

PA is deep in the tank for Obama...deal with it.

Tokay, out of your list, you have two polls of any real consequence.  Even some of the poorer ones are out of the MOE.

Dude, are you serious?

Ya know, it'd be one thing if it was like
+3
+4
+5
+3
+12

Then you could call the +12 an outlier...
But the way things are going, I dont know how you can consider any of them an outlier.  And even if you do, the average is still pretty darn high:
For the month of October:
+14
+10
+13
+15

The average (unweighted by anything) is +13.  Lets just say the +15 is an outler...the unweighted average is still +12.33.  Not a big difference.

Go one step further.  Just head over to FiveThirtyEight, where the guy who runs the site takes out any bias and weighs the polls accordingly.
#1, he gives a lot of weight to the Muhlenberg tracking poll (the entire running of it, not just one data point)
#2, the most heavily weighted polls are the four most recent October polls (highlighted in yellow) and they are given pretty heavy weights.
#3, the average projected PA Obama victory is +10.1
#4, the MOE on that number is +-7.9.  +10.1 is outside of the MOE last I checked.

Hell, when the Muhlenberg tracking poll started the running 3 poll average was 6.33 (+6 SurveyUSA, +9 CNN, +4 Rasmussen).  And now where it is, the running 3 poll average is +12.33 (+14 Strategic Vision, +10 WCU, +13 Rasmussen).

Anyone who says that the Muhlenberg tracking poll is a poor gauge of the race in PA needs to get a clue.


Again, PA is so heavily in Obama's tank its not even an issue.  Why we are debating this is beyond me.   Why anyone would think PA would go to McCain is anyone's guess.



Whats funny is that if the tracking poll starts going in McCain's direction then you, and others, will flip-flop and say you think the tracking poll numbers are worthwhile.

Tokar, most of us here make judgments about the quality of polls, with a few exceptions, university polls rank just above tarot cards.  One exception is F and M in PA, and Q in some states, though not PA.

Of the commercial polls, the only one really[/i good is Rasmussen.

A Muhlenberg tracking poll is one of lesser credible polls out there.

You might as well start citing Zogby.



 

Look, as a liberal I hate SurveyUSA polls...they always have a right leaning bias and they always seem to mess up current trends on the site (e.g. three straight D+XXX polls in a state messed up by a stupid SurveyUSA poll showing R+1)...but they are still polls that I don't necessarily trash like you are doing with Muhlenberg, rather i wait until Nate Silver at 538.com reads and sorts out.  Nate removes all bias and weighs polls accordingly...so if that SurveyUSA poll is an outlier Nate will know.

In the case of Muhlenberg tracking polls, each individual data point weighs only 0.25 (which is very light).  But as a whole you see the weight is 1.25...a five day average ("T5").  So the fact that he gives a 5 day average such weight shows that this Muhlenberg tracking poll is no joke.
As Nate said when this poll came out:
"As with other polls, we do not completely throw out the old results when the tracking poll publishes a new result; instead, have we have a formula for discounting the weighting for past polling from the same firm."

So again, Muhlenberg is not trash as you would have it.  Sure a single point of 10 on a single day may not mean much, nor should it, but just look at the 5 day average then make judgments.  In this case, the 5 day average matches that of the daily point, so how you can just throw it out is beyond me.

This doesn't have anything to do with ideology of the pollster, or even what poll says.  A Mulenberg poll is a university poll without any great track record.  Part of it is how the poll is conducted and part due to methodology used.

Sorry, but most university polls are given very little weight, as this one should.

well you are alone in your mindset.  Many sites give this a lot of weight (538, Pollster, etc.) and use it to further fuel the notion that PA has like 0% chance to go for McCain. Hell, even Real Clear Politics, the conservative site which Nate Silver from 538 moated big time for their selectivity in polls, give the tracking poll weight and now PA is a SOLID +13.8 on RCP average: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/#data ...which is unheard of even for RCP standards.

HAHA.  Even one of our most partisan members, BRTD, posted that he doesn't trust university polls. 

And don't confuse stating that a poll is bad with stating that the result will be different. 

Judging from Obama's campaign activities in, oh, the last six hours, he is worried about PA, i.e. 4 stops within five miles of my house.

Its the remaining Kerry state that McCain is actually pouring money into in serious fashion.  It would be stupid for him not to campaign there.

On another note, he is campaigning in the 2nd most democratic city behind New York City (according to 2004 election results).  You are telling me he is worried about losing democratic base in the 2nd more democratic city in the country?  Yeahhhhhhhhhhhh

Again, PA is so far in the tank for Obama that McCain should just pull out ASAP and focus on NOT losing states like VA, NC, IN, WV, OH, FL.  Every dollar he spends in PA is a waste and is detracting from his failing campaigns in the states I just listed.

Oh well, keep dreaming J.J...cause dreams are all you got at this point with all the polls showing Obama at +10 for PA.

If this was really good, Obama wouldn't be spending his time trying to run up the vote in Phila, period.  I hate to tell you this, but we elect by electoral votes.  Obama's only reason to campaign in Phila is to secure Pennsylvania.  No others.


I know you are having a difficult time understanding this, but I will try to explain this to to you.  We are not talking about Obama win or losing only if this poll accurately, that means really, tells us if how well Obama is doing in PA.

No. But you seem to love Franklin Marshall.

Whatever the case, if Obama is up 6-7 points nationwide, he's up by more than 1.5 points in Pennsylvania. It's just common sense.

If you havent realized this over the past 2 elections, it is the way to win PA.  Win the 5 Philadelphia counties, win the Pittsburgh counties and you win PA.  And considering the central-PA counties are also in the tank as evidenced by the April Primary (https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&fips=42&f=0&off=0&elect=1 ) because of the young voter presence, it is impossible to think McCain has any chance whatsoever.
Add this with the fact that the Erie, PA congressional county is going to flip blue (or red according to USEA) and it makes for a difficult reality for any republican to face, even someone like yourself.

Ask yourself this...I am asking myself this right now too:
Do you really need Pennsylvania polls at this stage in the game?
1) PA was overwhelmingly against the Bush rubber stamp named *snaps fingers*...damn I'm already forgetting his name (thank god)...SANTORUM *slaps head* in 2006.  Why anyone would think that they would suddenly change their minds in another election year where the theme is "vote against Bush" is beyond me.
2) Southeastern PA now accounts for 40% of the Pennsylvania electorate.  Considering that this area is heavily democratic, enough so to overcome the 2004 partisan election, again how anyone can think PA will go red (or USEA blue) is also is mystery.  Include this with the fact that Philadelphia, a city of 1.4mil (about half of which turns out to vote) is the second most democratic city in the US...in the US!
3) The national tracking polls already show that the democratic base has united behind Obama.  With that said, Obama should have no problem picking up the democratic leaners in PA.  Add this to his strength in Centre and Union counties and it makes for a very strong case for an Obama victory in PA.  On a side, Obama won Lancaster county while Casey (in 2006) did not.

Uh, no one is saying he'll lose Philly but he's going to lose a significant chunk of the base here (white, working class Catholics).

So once again, you are claiming Catholics are more likely to be racist.

Once again, I am not. Please read why in the numerous other threads where I've responded to this accusation (and where others have backed me up).

All I've seen is you claiming such people won't vote for Obama because of race.

Ok so why isn't it that you don't pick up on the idea that it's the white working class that won't vote for him because of race? Oh, I know why! You just want to be able to say that Catholics are racists.

You are a very, very, very ignorant, dumb, douchebag.

Who is the white working class in my state supporting? Let's check the results of NE Minneapolis and St. Louis County after the election.

Do you understand logic? Like...at all?

Let's check who the Catholics in MA and RI are supporting! Looks like Catholics aren't racist!

He's claiming voting Catholics tend to be more conservative in Phila.

That's not what he's claiming at all with all his ancedotes about people who've never voted for Republicans supposedly.

Massachusetts 2004 exit poll:

Catholics:
Kerry 51
Bush 49

Protestants:
Kerry 60
Bush 39

...

And what does that have to do with the 2008 results and race? How are Catholics there going to vote this year, BRTD?

I love it when it becomes so obvious that you've lost an argument!  :)

It'll vote for Obama, and the Protestants will vote more for him.

That's great that they'll vote for him by more. Now let's see - who will be more strongly for Obama (since this seems to be the ultimate gauge of racism these days) - southern Catholics or southern Protestants?

Southern Protestants of course, considering almost all blacks are as such and few are Catholic.

So white Protestants are racists. Thanks for the insight!

Yes, and they are most Southern Baptists, not members of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America.

That doesn't matter. All Protestants are now more likely to be racist. You lose.

Anyway:

Saturday, October 11:

Obama - 52 (+2)
McCain - 40 (+1)

lol...considering that this is a running average, it is quite impressive numbers for Obama.

Dude, the only reason Obama is actually campaigning hard in PA is because McCain is stubbornly continuing to campaign hard.  And, the majority of that campaigning is coming in the Philadelphia area, mostly deep within the city itself (Palin in NE Philly, Palin at the Flyers game, Palin for a jog in an Eagles jersey, etc. etc.).  Obama would be a fool to a) campaign well outside Philly given McCain's focus on campaigning in the city, and b) not campaign in PA all considering PA is the last Kerry state McCain is actually maintaining a campaign.

Just look at Michigan.  It is almost an exact mirror of PA prior to McCain pulling out.
Polls are +10 (or more), its a swing state which no one expects to go +10 on election day.  McCain certainly could have remained in the state and campaigned really hard in a state that is routinely hurt by economic downturn.  Had he continued Obama certainly would have continued in MI as well.  However, with him pulling out Obama too has pulled out knowing there is no point wasting money in a state that is a done deal (just check out the future events on MyBarackObama.com).


Given the way the national tracking polls are going, and given recent polling in battleground states, conventional battleground states will go solid Obama if otherwise ignored.
Michigan - McCain pulled out, stopped campaigning.  Polls now show Michigan is deep in the democratic tank.
Iowa - McCain has pretty much pulled out here.  Polls now show Iowa is deep in the democratic tank.
Oregon - when was the last time you saw McCain in Oregon?  There was a time when Oregon was a battleground.  Now?  It is deep in the democratic tank.
New Jersey - polls in New Jersey are actually worse than polls in Pennsylvania.  PA is averaging a +11-12 while NJ is averaging a +8-9.  But of course, Mccain is not even campaigning here.  Again, deep in the DEM tank.
New Hampshire - again, another state which people were saying has a good chance to go red (USEA blue).  So where is McCain?  No McCain, polls have turned back in Obama's favor.

The same can be said of many other states.

The point I'm trying to make here is that Obama is not campaigning because he is concerned PA will go red (USEA blue), he is campaigning to thwart the obvious increased McCain presence in PA.  Obama would be a fool to ignore PA while McCain has increased his presence.


Simply put, PA is deep in the democratic tank.  However, McCain still thinks PA can go red (USEA blue), is campaigning hard (and rather stubbornly), so Obama in response has to follow suit.




The democratic margin of victory decreased in 2004, sure.
Heres some numbers to chew on...

::::PA 2000 vs PA 2004 (+ = Bush gain, - = Bush loss.  Bold = Bush victory)::::
PA margin victory difference: +1.67 (4.17-2.50)

Bucks county difference: +1.37 (4.17-2.80)
Philadelphia county difference: +0.91 (62.05-61.14)
Montgomery county difference: -1.86 (9.73-11.59)
Delaware county difference: -3.13 (11.70-14.83)
Chester county difference: -5.14 (9.61-4.47)

Philadelphia Metro victory difference: -0.88% (25.27-26.16)

So even though PA decreased its total democratic margin of victory, the Philadelphia market overall gained in democratic strength, not to mention 316,000 total (DEM+GOP) new voters.
On another note, the Philly 5-county area grew by 0.66% as a total of the total PA electorate (33.08-32.42).  I remember Philly.com saying it was close to 40%, so I am guessing that is based purely on total population, including nonvoters.

The fact that the Philadelphia market as a whole increased in strength (both in voters and margin) should be another good indicator that Obama should cakewalk.

Allegheny, Lehigh and Erie also increased in strength (the only other counties to go for the dems in both 2000 and 2004 that showed increased DEM strength in 2004...all the rest showed declines).  Yes, the same can be said on the opposite side of the spectrum for the GOP with most, if not all remaining counties in PA
But just look at the data:
*those 8 counties I just mentioned account for 49% (!!!) of the PA electorate, and with the tracking polls indicating increased democratic strength from democrats, there is no reason to believe that these margins of victories will hold or increase.
*during the PA primary Obama won 7 counties (Phila, Delaware, Centre, Chester, Lancaster, Dauphin, Union).  Of those 7, 5 were ones that did NOT go for Kerry (Phila and Delware went for Kerry) .  And of those 5, only 1 of them showed more GOP primary votes than DEM primary votes (Union).  Granted, the GOP primary was pretty much over by the time the polls opened, it is interesting none the less.  The vote count during the primary was certainly no where near the totals for those counties for the 2004 election, so I am not going to say Obama will win those counties (he probably won't) but he should be able to decrease the margin of GOP victory given his purported strength there.
*PA democratic registration dwarfs PA republican registration.  I wonder how they account for the deceased, but if there were massive numbers of dead people registered the registration numbers would be astronomical, so my guess is as good as any that they must clean up the deceased.  So I don't think the deceased have any effect here, so these are some genuine numbers.  OK OK, a lot of lazy people probably didnt change their party affiliation back to IND or GOP after the Apr 22 primary, but I still don't think that would change the outcome (that being a DEM registration advantage)


I can go on and on, but just looking at the decreased margin of victory in PA during the partisanized election of 2004 is not the only thing you should be looking at to indicate how PA will go.


No one actually believes PA will go +10.  Even I am amazed by the numbers.  But +10 isn't the point.  The point is that +10 isn't an outlier rather it is part of the trend, a trend that should indicate to McCain that PA is so deep in the DEM tank that he is wasting time and money.



+8 isn't exceptionally solid?  What?  +8 is the highest Obama has been in the national tracking poll, even higher than after he won the primaries (+3ish according to 538.com).  Hell, even McCain was never a +8.  I can't see data prior to January (as if that has any effect today) but he was, at best, a little over a +4.  +8 is definitely solid.
The question is not whether +8 is solid, because it is definitely solid...solid enough to be affecting predictions from various websites including Pollster.com, Intrade.com, 538.com, etc.  The question is whether it will hold.  +8 is definitely solid.  Bush was at a +9 prior to the election...definitely solid...but it tightened as election day neared.

Tokar, under your logic, Obama should start campaigning in MA it McCain goes there, and should go to DC if McCain is there.


Except, while the campaign pulled, the RNC hasn't.

This is a university poll, far from the best university poll in PA, so that alone should raise questions.  That Obama is trying to boost himself in Phila, and Biden in Scranton is an indication that his own polling is telling something different.

So what?  So what if its a university poll.  Who determines that University poll is bad?
Question:
Polls in OH have recently all been favoring Obama.  Just look at all the polls in October here on USEA.  It was at the point that USEA colored it pink.  It was also at a point where it was red, albeit briefly.
However, a poll from a University, from UofCincy came out showing McCain +2.

So under your same argument, you must be discounting it because it is "a university poll", right?

So I guess you discount polls from Suffolk University and Quinnipiac University under this same argument.


Dude you can't just throw out a poll because you don't like its results.  Its one thing if this tracking poll is showing results which differed from the current non-tracking polls in PA.  But it isnt.  The non-tracking poll average is +10 (or more) for Obama while the tracking poll shows +10 (or more).

Now mind you, because the tracking poll is a running average a slip in the non-tracking polls will be delayed by a couple days, but any slip will eventually be shown in this tracking poll.  And I'm sure when the poll starts slipping you won't be trashing this tracking poll.




So the RNC is there, big deal.  The news made the rounds on CNN, FNC, MSNBC, etc. and I'm sure all the local stations in Michigan.  You think these people actually believe that McCain is not completely out?  If people are as easily swayed into believing that Obama is a terrorist or a muslim than they can be easily misled into believing McCain has bailed.  I don't know why he made that announcement, it was dumb and now Michigan is pretty much a safe DEM win.



If McCain had unlimited time and unlimited funds he definitely could campaign in certain states that are considered safe DEM and make things interesting.  New York?  California?  Washington?  Oregon?  Whats to say he couldn't make it interesting in these states?

Just look at 2000 vs 2004 (excluding MA since Kerry makes it a home state advantage):
NY 2000: +25
NY 2004: +18
CA 2000: +12
CA 2004: +10
IL 2000: +12
IL 2004: +10
NJ 2000: +16
NJ 2004: +6
DE 2000: +13
DE 2004: +8
MD 2000: +16
MD 2004: +13
CT 2000: +17
CT 2004: +11
RI 2000: +29
RI 2004: +21
HI 2000: +18
HI 2004: +9

Theres nothing to say that McCain cant campaign in these otherwise "safe" states and make them interesting based on these numbers.
Similarly, theres nothing to say that Obama can't campaign in traditionally "safe" GOP states and make them interesting.  See: GA, MT, ND, NC, WV, IN, VA.  And don't give me "IN and VA were never safe GOP states"...yes they were safe.  What Democrat in their right mind figured Gore or Kerry ever had a chance in VA or IN?

McCain doesn't campaign in these states because he has neither the time or resources to spend the time necessary to make these states interesting.

You make it seem like these states never went blue (USEA red) before, which is certainly not the case.

Sunday, October 12:

Obama 51 (-1)
McCain 39 (-1)

The bulk of the posters here, including our one professional pollster.

Most of us look at track record and if the pollster has a good record.


If you would have read my posts, you would have noticed that I questioned that poll beccause] it was a university poll.


I just answered that question.


Absolutely with Suffolk.  Q is good in some states, but not PA.


It really seems that you cannot comprehend what I'm saying.  Re-read it slowly, or have someone read it to you.

Monday, October 13:

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 38 (-1)

Where you getting this information from?  I do not see it on Muhlenberg's site.  Last day available is Oct8.

http://www.politickerpa.com/danh/2134/muhlenberg-tracking-poll-obama-14

Wednesday, October 15

Obama 52 (+1)
McCain 38 (nc)

lol...

I know this is a 4-day running average, but if McCain's heavy campaigning in PA had any effect then the margin should go DOWN not up...

Uh oh...

http://www.muhlenberg.edu/studorgs/polling/

October 16 - Obama+16

Obama - 53 (+1)
McCain - 37 (-1)

Chart:

()

McCain will certainly get at least 45% of the vote here.

And you know this because ... ?

He's magical

Probably less "magical" than this poll.

So with 45%, it would leave Obama with 55%, and thus make PA a +10 for Obama.  I'll take it.

Friday, October 17

Obama: 53 (nc)
McCain: 39 (+2)

Its hard for me to believe that Obama's numbers will improve anymore...53 is pretty high, and 8% undecided is pretty low...

McSurge!!!11

Meanwhile, Pennsylvania has dropped to 5% on 538.com's list of "tipping point" states, tied with the Swingy McSwing mid-point swing states of New Jersey and West Virginia.

Deservedly so...
With all the Kerry states expected to go to Obama, with McCain capitulating Iowa, and New Mexico looking overwhelmingly blue, it puts Obama at 264EV.  Any one of those TippingPoint states pushes him over the top.
I presume they are ranked by their current projected margin of victory.

Having reached 100% chance of going to Obama on Election-Projection.net, PA has been dropped from the battlerank listing.

What kind of record does Muhlenberg have? I just can't see the state going for Obama by 15 points. 

Saturday-October 18, 2008
Obama 52%(-1)
McCain 39%(nc)

MCSurge is slowing, but it could still be a tied race the weekend before the election ... ;) :P

For their D3 football program they are undefeated. :P

I think polls are only valid projections if they are at maximum only one week old.  Any older and they are kind of irrelevant for making good projections.  With that said, on to their record:

2004 Presidential polls: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?type=src&source_id=33
Not bad considering PA went to Kerry by around 5 points, but the polls were a little too old for any pollster to say they actually made a good projection.

2006 Senatorial polls: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2006/polls.php?type=src&source_id=33
Meh...got the trend right (Casey strong win) but Casey won by over 17 points.

2006 Gubernatorial polls: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2006/polls.php?type=src&source_id=33
Not bad...Rendell won by over 20 points.

2008 Democratic Primary: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?type=src&source_id=33
Spot on...problem is that the primary was 3 weeks away, so you can't use this as a basis for projecting the PA result on 4/22.



So in sum this is what I'd say about Muhlenberg polling:
They are good at getting trends right (4 for 4 in this case), and looking strictly at the numbers they got for the polls they conducted I'd say they were 3 for 4.  Problem is that in non-tracking type polls, they haven't shown a record of polling enough to be used as a basis for projecting the margin of victory.
However, a tracking poll is meant to track trend, not so much exact numbers.  And since Muhlenberg has been pretty good at getting trends correct, I think their tracking poll is a good indication of the current state of things in PA (strong Obama).

(If for example SurveyUSA was doing a tracking poll, I'd be a little weary of the trend they show.  They always seem to be an outlier when it comes to their state polling)

I'd be very very surprised if PA went for McCain.

Sunday - October 19, 2008

Obama 52% (nc)
McCain 40% (+1)

Tokar, it's not a question of if Obama wins, but it is the margin.

What difference does the margin make?  10pts, 1pt, 0.1pt?  All margins = all or none victory for either candidate (which is how it should have been in the DEM primaries.  Had it been that way we would have had Clinton nominated).

Bush won Florida by 00.01%in 2000...and he won all 25 EV's...and the presidency.


I couldn't care less what the margin of victory is in PA.  I care about who wins it and the polls show that Obama is almost certain to be the victor.
Obviously a larger margin will show the pundits on the news channels that PA is leaning more and more democratic as the years pass, which is definitely nice, and that certainly changes the dynamic of the 2010 Senatorial race...but I care about "what have you done for me lately", and I just want to see PA is in the democratic column come November 5th.

Monday - October 20, 2008

Obama 53% (+1)
McCain 41% (+1)

Tuesday- October 20, 2008

Obama 52% (-1)
McCain 42% (+1)

Man, PA is tightening pretty rapidely !

But wake me up when McCain's down to 6 and I´ll be worried ... :P ;)

Well, I am talking about how well this poll describes the result.  I've been predicting that ultimately Obama would win the state since mid September. 

I think you meant October 21 on that data point.


Wednesday - October 22, 2008
Obama 52% (NC)
McCain 41% (-1)

McSurge is over. Or a few very pro-Obama samples are now out ...

"The McCain campaign is increasingly banking on a win in Pennsylvania, even though Senator Obama has a double-digit lead in recent polls there:

Mr. McCain’s strategists insisted that the state and its 21 electoral votes were within reach and crucial to what they acknowledge is an increasingly narrow path to victory. They say that their own polls show Mr. McCain only seven or eight percentage points behind Mr. Obama. (The state polls that show Mr. Obama with a double-digit lead, all conducted in recent weeks, include surveys by Marist, Quinnipiac, Rasmussen, SurveyUSA and The Allentown Morning Call.)

Mr. McCain’s strategists argue that their candidate has a dual appeal: to the pro-gun working-class voters in the western coal country, many of whom supported Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York in the Democratic primary, and to independents and moderates in the swing counties around Philadelphia."

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/22/the-early-word-the-ad-wars/

The poll is not great; it's a general university poll without a good track record.

There seems to inordinate interest in PA by both candidates, which kind of tells me that it's not a ten point margin.

Its not about margin.  Its about trends...

Trends show heavy Obama lean.

Wednesday - October 23, 2008
Obama 52% (nc)
McCain 42% (+1)

Bumping around the mean a bit...

This has actually been a remarkably stable poll, considering the sample size and pedigree.

Actually, it has shown very little movement.

Friday - October 24, 2008

Obama 52% (nc)
McCain 40% (-2)

*slaps head*...boy sometimes I wonder if you are just egging me on or if you really just dont get it...

Yes it has shown very little movement, maintaining "strong obama".

Saturday - October 25, 2008

Obama 52% (nc)
McCain 41% (+1)

Obama will return to PA on Monday & Tuesday to campaign and keep his double-digit lead.

Well, if SUSA, is anything to go by. Obama seems to be doing reasonably well among Republicans in PA, just as McCain is among Democrats

As for Pennsylvania's moderates, Obama is kicking McCain's butt. When McCain capitulated to the right of his party by passing over the likes of former PA governor Tom Ridge for running mate, he, effectively, told the center to f***-off, I don't need you

Dave

Why spend two days in a state a week before the election if you are winning by double digits? He is not spending any time in Wisconsin or Michigan where is he also supposed to be up double digits.  Logically at this point he should be 100% on offense in states Bush won in 2004.

Loving that spin!

What spin?  His lead is still 10+ points, and I doubt the number will change come monday (as polls usually dont come out on Saturday).

Last I checked the number 10 is "double digits".

Sunday - October 26, 2008

Obama 53% (+1)
McCain 41% (nc)

The spin is that he's coming here to "keep his double digit lead." He obviously felt the need to post that because of the numerous stories about Obama not really thinking he's ahead by that much.

I'm confused.  How is it "spin" when the numbers exist?

"Spin" is one thing when the numbers don't favor an individual/party and they spin it to make it seem like they are good for them (e.g. MSNBC claiming victory because they win the "all important 25-54 demo" but losing in total viewers).

The internal +2 poll was from Oct 14...or the news at least.  We haven't heard anything since, so how does any of us know that it is still +2?  How do you know it was not some fake release to egg McCain into wasting time here?

http://vompolitik.blogspot.com/2008/10/pennsylvania-admiral-ackbar.html

You don't understand what I'm trying to say.

Phil is basically saying that believing the polls of PA makes you a hack and any non-hack believes the race is much closer than all the polls show.

I need you to do me a little favor on Election night: Celebrate by playing in traffic. On a highway. While drunk.

It will be so worth it.

Monday - October 27, 2008

Obama 53% (nc)
McCain 40% (-1)

The McCain rallies will continue until morale improves!

()

Tuesday - October 28, 2008

Obama 53% (nc)
McCain 40% (nc)

McCain is really pulling away with this!

Sorry, I read it too fast in the morning. The correct numbers for today are:

Tuesday - October 28, 2008

Obama 53% (nc)
McCain 41% (+1)

Wednesday - October 29, 2008

Obama 53% (nc)
McCain 42% (+1)

Tightening!

At this pace, McCain pulls ahead the weekend after the election ... :P

Bad poll, but F & M is troubling.

Bad news for J.J. and Keystone Phil:

Thursday - October 30, 2008

Obama 54% (+1)
McCain 41% (-1)

Grow up, dude. You're creeping towards troll territory.

OK ... :P

There's good news for you today:

Friday - October 31, 2008

Obama 53% (-1)
McCain 43% (+2)

McSurge !

Saturday - November 1, 2008

Obama 52% (-1)
McCain 44% (+1)

This isn't good news because this is bad on so many levels.

Sunday - November 2, 2008

Obama 52% (nc)
McCain 45% (+1)

Monday - November 3, 2008

Obama 52% (nc)
McCain 46% (+1)