Talk Elections

Kerry will lose rather than Bush winning.  Bush will be around the 48% mark on election day and win by 3-5%.

What will he be at at the conclusion of his second term?

Took me a moment to figure out what you were asking for.  :)

As far as on the day he turns over control, I would say he'd be between 50-55%.  The economy will still be recovering, most of our troops will be out of Iraq, and both Afghanistand and Iraq will have had their first free elections.  Depending on technology, we might see more fuel cell or advanced diesel vehicles on the road, decreasing our dependence on middle eastern oil.  And, if we are lucky, there won't be another attack on our soil.

The economy will boom like mad in 2005, 2006, especially if Bush gets reelected.

A simplified tax code, privatized SS/medicare, and tort reform are all popular ideas.

So if he's successful, 56-61%. :)

If he's reelected, I'd say he'll end his presidency with an approval ratings in the mid 50s.

If Kerry's elected, by the end of his first term, I think his approval ratings will be in the low 40s.

If he wins, lower-to-mid 50s

Remember, Reagan's and Clinton's exiting approval ratings weren't very high either.  I think we all are in the same ballpark . . . somewhere in the 50s%.  Now, down the road after the 44th President has been sworn in, and depending how the Middle East develops, Bush's rating could go in either direction, but most likely up.

hopefully Iraq stays a US ally. what are the chances of a pro-US government getting elected though?

Kerry hasn't lost it yet! The battleground remains tight and may well remain so until 11/2.

Bush may win the popular vote by c.4% winning many states by huge majorities, while Kerry may win some big swing states by bare pluralities as well as holding the more marginally Democratic states such as Minnesota, Wisconsin , Iowa,  Oregon and New Mexico.

Dave

Well, if the foundation is laid correctly, we don't really need a pro-US government, but one which is anti-dictatorship.  As long as their constitution allows for established election periods (like ours), then we know that every few years the ruling parties will change.  This is the flaw in some of the other pro-Western societies that seem to decide to hold elections "on demand."  Puts more power in the hands of the people, and that leads towards a more free society, which is harder for terrorists to find safe harbor.

By then the world would of end because the Chimp would of started World War 3.

39%

This is hard to predict because the Iran crisis will come to head in the next term, something very big and potentially positive could happen in the Israeli-Arab conflict, and there may be some sort of splash in Korea (anywhere from total collapse of the regime to Second Korean War). These three events will likely all register in the public conscious somewhere, depending on the "how" of it all. To a slightly lesser extent, Kashmir, Cuba, Saudi Arabia, and/or Colombia could make big news, good or bad.

If most of these crises either do not occur or have a positive and painless result, 55-60 is about right. If a major war or other "big doo-doo" thing happens, 10-90%, with a five pt MOE.

Whoever becomes president will probably become the most hated person alive as oil prices will go through the roof.

Stop calling him the chimp, bitch. ;)

If Bush is re elected, He'll end with a rating of high 40's or low fifties.

75%.

I'm not kidding.

Kerry is up 1 point with likely voters in the Harris poll, and you guys are making it sound like he's already lost?

Yeah. And down 6-8 points in every other poll.

So far, this one appears to be the most realistic.

20% seems like a reasonable estimate. Some people on some other board thought that was way too high, but I'm sticking with it.

This was a pretty good prediction, too.

rofl

Maybe he thought the question said disapproval rating. :)

I agree, this will be about it.

Disagree.  Once the President bombs Iran's nuclear facilities, we'll see him back in the 50's.

I say 52% on January 20, 2009.

Yeah, just after China buys us.

Psh.  Disbelievers. :-P

20%, maybe lower. I just can't see Bush doing anything competent in the next two years.

January 2009?  Lame ducks always recover at the last minute.  George H.W. Bush's approval got back over 50% after he lost the election.

http://www.hist.umn.edu/~ruggles/Approval_files/Approval_27267_image001.gif

Since I don't think that can keep going down forever, I'm going to guess 30%, but maybe a "lame duck" boost after the 2008 election like True Democrat suggests.

lol. 

This is hilarious.

22%, LOL.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/bushs-final-approval-rating-22-percent/

A president's success can't be measured by where things are at the day he leaves office. Legacy is more important which nowadays places him around 41%.

Great president or the greatest president?

Was privatized SS ever popular? I believe it's one of the things that destroyed Goldwater in 64.

mmmm hmmm....

Pretty great, all things considered

I hope this is sardonic.