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Title: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: The Ex-Factor on October 06, 2008, 11:34:55 AM New Poll: Virginia President by Survey USA on 2008-10-05
Summary: D: 53%, R: 43%, I: 3%, U: 1% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=00f2d8fb-6a3b-425d-9f27-21df796e8fe5&c=77) Topline Numbers Obama 53% McCain 43% Other 3% Not Sure 1% There's also a new Suffolk poll at Pollster (http://www.pollster.com/blogs/va_obama_51_mccain_39_suffolk1.php) showing it Obama 51, McCain 39 but I can't find an actual link at the moment. edit: but Tender Branson can, his thread. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=84709.0) Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: Tender Branson on October 06, 2008, 11:35:36 AM :)
Holy Sh*t ! Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: Rowan on October 06, 2008, 11:36:01 AM We're dead.
Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on October 06, 2008, 11:36:33 AM Wake me up in 2012. Thanks.
Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 06, 2008, 11:37:18 AM It's so beautiful. This election is quickly turning into 1980.
Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: Lunar on October 06, 2008, 11:40:13 AM I don't buy that it's this high, since SUSA has a tendency to exaggerate extremes, but it's good news considering McCain has ceased running ads in the state's most populous region...
Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: Tender Branson on October 06, 2008, 11:45:58 AM I thought they would include an "Early voter" option, just like they did in their last GA poll ... :(
Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: Eraserhead on October 06, 2008, 11:46:16 AM Huh...
I'll wait for Rasmussen... Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on October 06, 2008, 11:46:28 AM Database entry; https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=5120081005019
Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: JohnCA246 on October 06, 2008, 11:48:25 AM ...good god
Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 06, 2008, 11:50:37 AM I thought they would include an "Early voter" option, just like they did in their last GA poll ... :( As far as I know early voting in VA has started more than 2 weeks ago ... Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: Kevin on October 06, 2008, 11:54:30 AM Although it's very close here and Obama may very well be ahead, it's not by the margin depicted here by SurveyUSA.
Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 06, 2008, 11:55:56 AM Obama's probably up by 4-6 points in VA at the moment, assuming that the trackers are correct and he's at 7-8 points nationally.
Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: Tender Branson on October 06, 2008, 11:58:15 AM What exactly was Jimmy Wilder's margin 1 month before he won the VA governorship in a close election ?
Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: Rowan on October 06, 2008, 11:58:50 AM Obama's probably up by 4-6 points in VA at the moment, assuming that the trackers are correct and he's at 7-8 points nationally. I'll keep faith in the M-D poll. Blind faith probably. Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: exopolitician on October 06, 2008, 12:01:47 PM I doubt it's that high. I don't doubt hes leading though.
Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: Aizen on October 06, 2008, 12:03:16 PM Virginia is a state where McCain has really collapsed. We've been seeing that trend for a couple of weeks now.
But let's wait for Rasmussen Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: TheresNoMoney on October 06, 2008, 12:04:49 PM In honor of Opebo, "Good lord man!"
Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: RJ on October 06, 2008, 12:09:03 PM It would really be something if Obama can take VA and NC. Not even Clinton took either one of these two. VA is looking really good for him right now but NC I'm anything but sold on.
Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: minionofmidas on October 06, 2008, 12:10:20 PM It's so beautiful. This election is quickly turning into 1980. Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: Stranger in a strange land on October 06, 2008, 12:11:44 PM It would really be something if Obama can take VA and NC. Not even Clinton took either one of these two. VA is looking really good for him right now but NC I'm anything but sold on. times change. Neither of those states is the same state it was 16 years ago. Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: Thomas Jackson on October 06, 2008, 12:23:24 PM This poll is a joke.
Internals: GOP 30 Dem 39 Ind 25 Even more LOL: 18-34 23% 35-49 35% 50-64 25% 65+ 17% Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: kevinatcausa on October 06, 2008, 12:37:21 PM For comparison, the 2006 Exit Poll (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/VA/S/01/epolls.0.html) showed only 14% of the voters as being 65+ (18-34 isn't listed directly, but 18-29 plus a third of the 30-44 group gives 21%).
The party ID is off from the poll and may be a warning sign, but I have no idea how much the party identification has changed in the last couple of years in Virginia. Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: Keystone Phil on October 06, 2008, 12:41:19 PM Uh huh...
Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: Vsanto5 on October 06, 2008, 12:50:50 PM I' am still waiting for M-D to do another poll of this state. So far I have it Obama +1.
Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: Alcon on October 06, 2008, 01:08:27 PM IMPORTANT REMINDER
Minnesota: McCain +1 Virginia: Obama +10 Thank you for your time. Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 06, 2008, 01:30:54 PM IMPORTANT REMINDER Minnesota: McCain +1 Virginia: Obama +10 Thank you for your time. Haha. Quite. Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: Thomas Jackson on October 06, 2008, 03:32:10 PM Quote For comparison, the 2006 Exit Poll showed only 14% of the voters as being 65+ (18-34 isn't listed directly, but 18-29 plus a third of the 30-44 group gives 21%). The party ID is off from the poll and may be a warning sign, but I have no idea how much the party identification has changed in the last couple of years in Virginia. 2006 was as about as bad as it can get for Republicans is Virginia. Even then, Webb only barely managed to eke out a victory. If we look at the Party Breakdown in 2006, we found: Democrat 36% Republican 39% Independent 26% So in a horrible year, it was still R+3. The Survey USA poll has it D+9, that's an 11 point swing in 2 years. No. It's not happening. And No, Obama isn't leading in Central and Western Virginia either. That right there should tell you the poll is wacked. Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: Thomas Jackson on October 06, 2008, 04:09:51 PM This poll, more than any others, has demonstrated to me that the pollsters are flat out playing games.
In 2004 Republicans had a +9 voter ID advantage. In 2006, an absolutely horrible year for Republicans, it was still R+3. Even then, Webb only managed to eke out a victory by the smallest margin. SurveyUSA wants us to believe that it's now D+9. That's an 18 point swing from 2004, and an 11 point swing from 2006. Uh, No. I'm waiting for the real polls on November 4th. I'm out. Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: Lunar on October 06, 2008, 04:48:48 PM SUSA doesn't weight and its polls always swing radically. Remember Obama+11 in Iowa when McCain was leading ~2%? Remember McCain leading 20% in North Carolina or by 1% in Minnesota?
The poll isn't "playing games" - it's merely an erratic pollster. Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: ChrisFromNJ on October 06, 2008, 04:54:13 PM 2006 was as about as bad as it can get for Republicans is Virginia. Even then, Webb only barely managed to eke out a victory. Wrong. 2006 wasn't as bad it gets for the Republicans. The Virginia GOP was running Macaca Allen, who was and still is a beloved figure in Virginia. Macaca Allen was a top-tier candidate who got victimized by a gaffe. Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: Brittain33 on October 06, 2008, 05:55:25 PM 2006 was as about as bad as it can get for Republicans is Virginia. Even then, Webb only barely managed to eke out a victory. Wrong. 2006 wasn't as bad it gets for the Republicans. The Virginia GOP was running Macaca Allen, who was and still is a beloved figure in Virginia. Macaca Allen was a top-tier candidate who got victimized by a gaffe. It has been forgotten that Republicans turned out in force in 2006; they were outnumbered by Democrats and Independents voting together. What's more, Republican candidates held their own in the South. It can get worse for Republicans than 2006. It's the same way that 2002 was worse for Democrats than 2004. Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on October 06, 2008, 06:45:29 PM A sample size of 666. This is truly Satan's work.
Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on October 06, 2008, 06:46:43 PM Quote For comparison, the 2006 Exit Poll showed only 14% of the voters as being 65+ (18-34 isn't listed directly, but 18-29 plus a third of the 30-44 group gives 21%). The party ID is off from the poll and may be a warning sign, but I have no idea how much the party identification has changed in the last couple of years in Virginia. 2006 was as about as bad as it can get for Republicans is Virginia. Even then, Webb only barely managed to eke out a victory. If we look at the Party Breakdown in 2006, we found: Democrat 36% Republican 39% Independent 26% So in a horrible year, it was still R+3. The Survey USA poll has it D+9, that's an 11 point swing in 2 years. No. It's not happening. And No, Obama isn't leading in Central and Western Virginia either. That right there should tell you the poll is wacked. I can just see you in 1932 saying that 1930 was as bad as it gets for Republicans. Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: TomC on October 06, 2008, 06:48:20 PM Geez- somebody pinch me- I must be dreamin'.
Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on October 06, 2008, 08:06:29 PM Yay :)
Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: Smash255 on October 06, 2008, 09:31:55 PM Quote For comparison, the 2006 Exit Poll showed only 14% of the voters as being 65+ (18-34 isn't listed directly, but 18-29 plus a third of the 30-44 group gives 21%). The party ID is off from the poll and may be a warning sign, but I have no idea how much the party identification has changed in the last couple of years in Virginia. 2006 was as about as bad as it can get for Republicans is Virginia. Even then, Webb only barely managed to eke out a victory. If we look at the Party Breakdown in 2006, we found: Democrat 36% Republican 39% Independent 26% So in a horrible year, it was still R+3. The Survey USA poll has it D+9, that's an 11 point swing in 2 years. No. It's not happening. And No, Obama isn't leading in Central and Western Virginia either. That right there should tell you the poll is wacked. Yes, VA isn't more Democratic than it was two years ago, and Northern Virginia doesn't exist...... Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: minionofmidas on October 07, 2008, 04:20:30 AM 2006 was as about as bad as it can get for Republicans is Virginia. Even then, Webb only barely managed to eke out a victory. Wrong. 2006 wasn't as bad it gets for the Republicans. The Virginia GOP was running Macaca Allen, who was and still is a beloved figure in Virginia. Macaca Allen was a top-tier candidate who got victimized by a gaffe. Title: Re: VA: SurveyUSA: Obama 53, McCain 43 Post by: Democratic Hawk on October 07, 2008, 01:38:11 PM Republican 30% (33%): McCain 83% (87%); Obama 15% (10%)
Democrat 39% (38%): McCain 9% (8%); Obama 89% (91%) Independent 25% (22%): McCain 46% (48%); Obama 45% (45%) Conservative 29% (30%): McCain 81% (83%); Obama 15% (14%) Moderate 39% (38%): McCain 33% (34%); Obama 65% (62%) Liberal 14% (12%): McCain 12% (13%); Obama 86% (86%) (denotes SUSA, Sep. 19-21, 2008) |