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Title: New CA poll... Post by: Gustaf on February 21, 2004, 08:26:22 AM A new CA poll shows Bush trailing a generic Democrat by 17 points, 37-54. Now, before you start ahouting at me, my point here is a new one. Other polls have been indicating that CA could be very close, but if this is true Bush would need a landslide to carry it. That IS interesting and relevant information.
Title: Re:New CA poll... Post by: dazzleman on February 21, 2004, 08:37:38 AM I really don't expect Bush to carry California.
It would be good if he could give the Democrats a good fight there and force them to commit resources to hold it, since they can't possibly win without it. Title: Re:New CA poll... Post by: © tweed on February 21, 2004, 09:21:39 AM But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%. So which poll is accurate?
Title: Re:New CA poll... Post by: Gustaf on February 21, 2004, 10:49:16 AM But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%. So which poll is accurate? The one with the best result, of course... ;) Title: Re:New CA poll... Post by: © tweed on February 21, 2004, 10:59:15 AM But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%. So which poll is accurate? The one with the best result, of course... ;) But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there. Title: Re:New CA poll... Post by: Gustaf on February 21, 2004, 11:11:24 AM But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%. So which poll is accurate? The one with the best result, of course... ;) But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there. Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter. Title: Re:New CA poll... Post by: DarthKosh on February 21, 2004, 11:17:37 AM But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%. So which poll is accurate? The one with the best result, of course... ;) But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there. Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter. And where the vote is coming from. Title: Re:New CA poll... Post by: Gustaf on February 21, 2004, 11:18:12 AM But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%. So which poll is accurate? The one with the best result, of course... ;) But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there. Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter. And where the vote is coming from. ??? Title: Re:New CA poll... Post by: © tweed on February 21, 2004, 11:18:48 AM But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%. So which poll is accurate? The one with the best result, of course... ;) But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there. Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter. And where the vote is coming from. Title: Re:New CA poll... Post by: DarthKosh on February 21, 2004, 11:18:59 AM But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%. So which poll is accurate? The one with the best result, of course... ;) But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there. Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter. And where the vote is coming from. ??? By knowing where the vote is coming from you will know how much support each of the canidate will get. Title: Re:New CA poll... Post by: agcatter on February 21, 2004, 11:37:38 AM I really don't think California is in play. If it is then Bush wins big and that isn't going to happen. No, California is not going to be in play any more than a state like Indiana is going to be in play for Democrats. Demographics.
Title: Re:New CA poll... Post by: Gustaf on February 21, 2004, 12:00:00 PM But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%. So which poll is accurate? The one with the best result, of course... ;) But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there. Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter. And where the vote is coming from. ??? By knowing where the vote is coming from you will know how much support each of the canidate will get. You mean if the poll was done the wrong way, sampling an unrepresentative portion of the electorate? Title: Re:New CA poll... Post by: DarthKosh on February 21, 2004, 12:55:52 PM But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%. So which poll is accurate? The one with the best result, of course... ;) But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there. Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter. And where the vote is coming from. ??? By knowing where the vote is coming from you will know how much support each of the canidate will get. You mean if the poll was done the wrong way, sampling an unrepresentative portion of the electorate? Title: Re:New CA poll... Post by: Gustaf on February 21, 2004, 01:19:26 PM But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%. So which poll is accurate? The one with the best result, of course... ;) But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there. Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter. And where the vote is coming from. ??? By knowing where the vote is coming from you will know how much support each of the canidate will get. You mean if the poll was done the wrong way, sampling an unrepresentative portion of the electorate? yeah..if the people conducting the poll were a bunch of incompetent amateurs... :) Title: Re:New CA poll... Post by: Esteban Manuel on February 21, 2004, 01:37:25 PM But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%. So which poll is accurate? The one with the best result, of course... ;) But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there. If is a true difference of 4% because ussually 4% inside MoE, that's mean TOS Title: Re:New CA poll... Post by: Esteban Manuel on February 21, 2004, 01:45:17 PM But a poll in CA shows Bush leading Edwards by 4% and trailing Kerry by 4%. So which poll is accurate? The one with the best result, of course... ;) But, remember, 4% is alot in CA, because of all the people that live there. Not really...if the polls has a similar margin, the MoE is still the same...I'll have to think about whether it's easier or not to swing a certain percentage if the whole is bigger...it should depend on resources per voter. And where the vote is coming from. ??? By knowing where the vote is coming from you will know how much support each of the canidate will get. You mean if the poll was done the wrong way, sampling an unrepresentative portion of the electorate? I second that. Wich poll is most acutte? It's a problem of 3 var: 1. The dispertion of vote in each sample, the most the dispertion the most the MoE 2. The size of the sample itself, the most the sample the minus the MoE 3. And finally, as Gustaf remember us, the technical quality of the poll itself, especially the questions, sample selection and display. End of the Resumé, so if someone has the features (and dates) of both polls we can answer the question of wich's most accute. Title: Re:New CA poll... Post by: PD on February 21, 2004, 10:12:11 PM I don't know where you got that poll.
Title: Re:New CA poll... Post by: © tweed on February 21, 2004, 10:13:55 PM I don't know where you got that poll. Title: Re:New CA poll... Post by: PD on February 21, 2004, 10:20:38 PM I don't know where you got that poll. Title: Re:New CA poll... Post by: Nation on February 21, 2004, 10:23:02 PM From what I read on dcpolitical, it's an extremely objective site that gets their information from a wide variety of statewide media sources. How is that liberal?
Title: Re:New CA poll... Post by: © tweed on February 22, 2004, 10:10:46 AM From what I read on dcpolitical, it's an extremely objective site that gets their information from a wide variety of statewide media sources. How is that liberal? Title: Re:New CA poll... Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 22, 2004, 11:50:51 AM The man who runs dcpoliticalreport is a Democrat, but the site is objective and the facts are free from bias.
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