Talk Elections

In OH, PA, MO and WA, Bush leads on terrorism and Kerry leads in health care, Iraq and economy. Both by large margins and in each state. Republicans see terrorism as the main issue, Independents see economy as slightly more important, and Dems see economy as far more important. It's interesting how start things are and how this indicates an obvious window for Kerry with Independents.

(Or as Gallup notes:

"Even with the somewhat confounding effects of issue importance and vote choice, if the election centers around the terrorism issue, that would certainly be a plus for the Bush campaign. In fact, as terrorism has risen in importance in Gallup Polls on a variety of measures, Bush has moved from a slight deficit to Kerry to a lead. While it is not possible to say with certainty that Bush's rise in the polls results from an increased concern about terrorism, the relationship may be more than a mere coincidence.

On the other hand, if other issues -- particularly domestic issues such as the economy or healthcare --become more important, Kerry would stand to gain. So while the candidates continue to stump for votes in the key battleground states, they will also try to set the terms of the debate for the election -- one focused more on international issues such as terrorism, or one focused more on domestic issues such as the economy. Whoever wins that battle would be in a stronger position come Election Day. ")