Talk Elections

ive seen no recent polls of the state.

im assuming bush is currently up 2-3 points.

discuss.

It's very difficult to estimate where a state is right now when there is much dispute over where the country is right now.  Legitimate polls paint Bush as anywhere between 0 and 7 points ahead.

Kerry won't be killed over the coal issue like in 2000.  Bush will get some votes from social conservatives, but overall it seems that West Virginians value economic issues many times more.

From the polls that have been done (and comparing them to the national numbers), and reports coming out of the state, my guess would be WV to Kerry by 1.5% in a tied election.

That state is a bit of a mystery. It may be that I'm reading something that isn't there, but it seems to me that when/if an elector threatens a month and a half out that he is considering abstaining or not casting his vote for the candidate he has pledged to vote for, it looks like his candidate is in a pretty good position. But I could be reading too in-depth.

I think Bush might be up a couple, I don't know quite by his 2000 spread. Gore torpedoed his own boat in that state by openly attacking the coal industry and the 2nd amendment. Kerry won't do either, won't come close. Won't even touch coal with a nine-foot pole and will be so pro-gun when he goes into WV he'll probably have all sorts of guns strapped on him when he goes around. Cap guns, water guns, pistols, Uzis, etc. :) I do think there are traits Bush has that West Virginians admire, like his straight forwardness, resolute position on the war, etc. I don't know, it'll be close.

Clearly West Virginia is one of Kerry's best chances to flip a 2000 Bush state.

Either way, it should be considerably closer than most states.

I think Kerry will pull out WVA. I don't understand why so many people think Bush will win it again, Gore totally screwed up in WVA in 2000, that was a true shocker that he lost there.

The economy isn't looking so good there, and that's what they are most concerned with.  Kerry wins by 2 here.

If Bush wins the popular vote, he'll take WV.

Kerry could take it, but I would only give him a 20% chance of doing so based on his current disposition.

The NRA spent big bucks in WV in 2000, IIRC. Are they doing that this year?

I believe WVA will be split.  Neither candidate seems to have an advantage on the other at the moment.

In 1988 H.W Bush was in WV 5.9% below his national number.
In 2000 G.W Bush was in WV 4% above his national number.

An almost 10% shift in 12 years.
Prediction:
Bush will win WV

You're probably correct.

In 1992 Clinton won West Virginia with 48.4% of the vote.  In 1996 he won it again with 51.5%.  Both were rated "strongly Clinton".

There is no real trend there in a place that you're trying to force one onto.

2000 is an outlier.  Gore lost the state due to a large number of single-issue voters that won't exist in the same quantities in 2004.

There is a darn good reason why Bush, Kerry, and all the 527s focus so much on West Virginia, and it most likely is because the state is very likely to flip one way or another (very close to the national number).

I'm not nearly so optimistic about WV. If Kerry wins it, it'll be extremely close. Kerry by 0.5% I think.

Machine Politics and Manchin's coattails *should* win it for Kerry.
Guns could help Bush, but his support for relaxing safety laws down the Mines could hurt him a lot.
If on election day, a wire reports a "strong turnout in Southern WV" Kerry's won it.

Turnout, turnout, turnout

question for the dems:

if bush is competitive in iowa, wisconsin and minnesota, what makes you all so confident of kerry's chances in wva?  id say that wva would go for bush long before the previous mentioned 3 states would.

I'm not really confident of his chances there.  I was just saying that there wasn't the trend that Shira was trying to lay on the state.

I think Gore's Campaign Book entitled:

"Why Coal is evil and all coal miners should be thrown out of work immediately and then publically shamed and flogged"

hurt him in West Virginia. (I may be paraphrasing the title, but not by much)

:)

The GOP seems pretty cocky about the state, A poll early last month by POS had bush up about 2% so I wouldn't be struting around too much based on that.

I think the state is very close, maybe Bush is up just a tad right now, but I wouldn't bet the farm on that.

The Dems are still anti-coal and anti-gun.  I am sure Bush and the NRA will remind folks of that in West Virginia.

Can anyone imagine if Al Gore was president right now? He'd be polling at about 20% of the vote.

Confident would be the wrong word... I have Kerry as "slight favourite" in WV because I'm assuming the Byrd/Rahall/UMW machine in Southern WV will drive turnout up (possibly by not entirely legal means...) enough to let Kerry pull off a win.

Besides, swings are rarely uniform.

All the most recent polls I've seen say 47-44 for Kerry. I have a feeling that it'll be a squaker. Really close, but in the end, it'll go Democrat... if I'm lucky. I have a buck riding on West Virginia.

Siege

Yes

What the hell happened to WV?

Kerry ed up big time. I've written a lot of rants about that...