Talk Elections

Obviously subject to change and all that, but yes, I do plan on doing all 50 states except Alaska (just not possible) though don't throw a fit if I don't do Texas or Georgia.

Anyway, I'll start here with the easiest, Delaware and Hawaii:

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Yeah, I didn't even have to use Paint!

Next up: Minnesota, North Dakota and Utah.

Why the big swing in Kauai?

Excellent. Looking forward to these.

Because that's what Akaka got in 2006 when he got about equal to what I think Obama will get. :)

It's not really THAT big of a swing though since Kerry fell JUST short of 60% there.

Awesome! Looking forward to the more complex ones :P

Keep up the good work, can't wait for Florida.

:)

I was hoping someone would attempt this :)

:) :) :)

I was planning on doing this, but in the end I was too lazy.  Thanks a lot BRTD!

Wow.  Now that's dedication.

no, dedication is actually finishing the project.  though I suspect BRTD is more likely to than most.

Gore lost Kent County by 2, while winning DE by 13 points. Now that Obama is ahead in DE by 15+ points he should win it easily.

Kent trended hard to the Republicans in '04.  I expect it vote for McCain albeit narrowly.

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I'm eager for BRTD's take on North Carolina and South Carolina!

NC's kind of tricky. I don't think it'll look like the 1998 Senate though the numbers should be close. SC won't be much different from 2004 though.

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Here's another easy one I forgot about:

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I don't see any county changing even shading-wise (though this mostly comes from McCain doing a lot worse nationwide but getting a homestate boost to make up here.) Maybe Yavapai will drop below 60%.

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I can't wait for IN, PA, OH, MI, and NH.

PA's likely near the end, since I don't want the thread to be derailed by an argument between me and Phil.

Are you planning on doing any more tonight?

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Why is Obama not hitting 60% in Blaine county, BRTD?

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Because I didn't realize Kerry came that close and Obama will likely go over the top. Will be changed.

Shoshone is also debatable -- it hardly trended Democratic in '04, and Bush carried it by 11 points.

Oregon is looking very good, though.  Awesome job.

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The filename on my hard drive for this is C:\Documents and Settings\Zachary\My Documents\My Pictures\horrendousblackturnoutistheonlythingkeepingmuchoftheeasternshorerepublican.bmp

Disagree on Baltimore County. But lets not hijack this beautiful thread.

Dorchester county?  What?

     Interesting thread.

Meh, I looked more at the percentage black there than Bush's numbers, yeah that one should be changed.

Wicomico county should also be fixed.  Somerset county is a tossup.

I must be seeing things, for some reason I thought Wiocomico was only about 51% Bush.

Also, is there any reason why Somerset is going Obama, and Anne Arundel isn't?  Somerset is trending harder to the GOP.

-Gore won Somerset.
-It has far more blacks.
-It's far more rural (and thus less partisan.)

Here's the first of the two "States that'll be a real bitch to do for reasons other than sheer number of counties" (WV is the other):

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Gotcha.

Anyway, NM is looking good.  Maybe if I was doing the map, I would flip Los Alamos, but I would have also done the same to Nassau county when it trended hard to Democrats.  Yeah, I should shut up.

Why did this suddenly fail.

I demand it resume immediately!

     Seconded.

An interesting idea BRTD. I'm glad someone is at least trying to attempt such a concept. Keep up the excellent work :)

I'm eagerly awaiting my southern states. BRTD is fixated on the West right now :(

Wonder whether Clackamas might be the sort of place to see quite a low swing.

Western states are easier. He'll be forced to do tougher states soon.

It looks good so far.

     These are the states that he's done so far:

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I agree with Duke; can't wait for the South.

Kerry won it, and it was 7.1% more Dem than the national average in 04.  How exactly is it going to go to McCain, especially considering that Obama looks likely to win nationally (and likely by more than just a point or two).  A 10-12% or so Republican swing against the national average??  What??

This is still happening. No updates for today or yesterday because I was working 10-hour shifts both days, and visited a strip club last night where I got a handjob from a stripper without even asking for it (no lie). Unfortunately I also received a minor head injury giving me a small concussion that night as well, meaning I'm probably going to require a little more sleep than normal the next week or so. I'll try to throw together a few tonight but I'm probably going to sleep a little early. However I'll get most of these done by the end of the weekend (remember, weekend for me = Sunday + Monday), and possibly all. Most likely I'll finish off the west and the other easy states before getting to the ones you guys want though.

Yes, you clearly must be exhausted. Less is more! :)

Your maps are quite sensible. What national margin are you assuming for your maps by the way?

Obama +~5

Should I bother asking what brought about the head injury... or is it one of those things that is just better left unsaid?

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Good job, BRTD.  I checked all of the margins, and they seem a-ok.  I would maybe flip Salem county, since I don't expect Obama to win NJ by more than 12 points, but it's unclear to me.

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Spokane is a no-no.  I will be shocked if Obama carries it.  Bush carried it by 12, and it's trending GOP.

I'm going to go out on a limb with some of these of course. They're not fun if you don't.

Anyway, here's the last one of the night, and probably the most anticipated one so far:

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Larimer and Jefferson are the ones that piss me off in general, because I have no idea which way they will go (in a close race, at least).  Larimer pretty much trended hard to the Democrats because all of the Nader voters broke for Kerry in '04.  Hence that Bush got the same percentage of votes in '00 and '04.

Jefferson pisses me off because it always votes the same way as Arapahoe, but I feel it will vote for McCain in a close race.

The question for those is if McCain can close the gap nationally.  If he can, I feel Jefferson and Larimer will vote for him.  Stay tuned.

Today I saw two conflicting stories on CO.  Rolling Stone says that the Repukes have purged millions of voters from the rolls here, ten times more than what is usually done in most states, and the fix is already in for this one to go unexpectedly for McCain, despite consistent polling for Obama.

I also read that the Rethuglicans had pulled out of this stae today and were abandoning any hope of taking it, as they have previously abandoned hope for Michigan and Wisconsin.  They have stopped buying TV advertising and are generally closing up shop.

Nice maps, BRTD!

Clark definitely won't be >60% McCain. Obama has a fairly good chance there, IMO.  If Obama's large lead continues he may also take Asotin (another county that definitely won't be >60% McCain---this place swings like crazy and I really doubt McCain will do extremely well here even though Bush did), Skamania, and Klickitat.

Spokane would be extremely close under such conditions. Alcon and I both have it going Obama by a fraction of a percent.

Whitman is also hard to predict. It's a likely >40% county, IMO. Whoever wins it will do so by less than 2%. It may be a college county but WSU is fairly conservative as far as big state schools go.

I would also knock Adams down to >60 McCain.

Thanks BRTD! I appreciate your hard work here, I'm glad that someone is making this effort.

Assuming Obama +5 as per your comments, I think that there is an extremely good chance that Marion, Jefferson, Polk, and Curry counties will flip towards Obama. Jackson county is more of a long-shot, although it has been moving increasingly Dem as a result of migration from California and the social conservative vote is much more diluted than in the past.

There is also an outside chance that Deschutes county may go Democratic this year, despite the prevalence of upper-income voters. Remember that this is a county which voted for Lonsdale over Hatfield in '90, and has been trending Democratic the past few cycles.

Do New York. I know my main man Obama is taking Hamilton this year! ;)

I'll tell you for a fact that McCain is losing at least 500 Republican votes from the HP-FTC facilities if not more. Remember that Carly is an "economic adviser" and that this company is still losing jobs overseas as a result of shipping manufacturing jobs overseas to Ireland and Singapore. It might be a relatively small percentage of county votes, but this is one of major large companies operating in Larimer County, and every time a large local employer lays people off while shipping jobs overseas in an election year, it usually doesn't benefit the incumbent pro free-trade party.

Dude!  Tell us more.  Was it 'to completion'?

Good work, BRTD. Are you predicting any Kerry counties to go to McCain?

Big mistake. I'll change that.


Hmmm, I'll PM this one.


Maybe. I don't think about individual counties until I do the state. Maybe some in Appalachia.

     I'd bet on a few in KY and/or TN since McCain has a real shot at doing better than Bush in those states. Maybe OK, had Kerry actually won any counties there.

Time for some boring ones:

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I would have made this exact map, good job.

Very interesting. Gore carried Monmouth and there was a huge 9/11 effect there--Middletown famously had a large number of losses that day.

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I can't believe I forgot this easy one:

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Obama should be breaking 60% in Cheshire county, NH.  Kerry got 59% there.

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I still object to Asotin R>60, but you're doing a pretty good job, especially considering the rigor of the task.

Hmmm, >60 is another error. Needs to be dropped a notch.

Awesome.  That's the only one I think is totally unrealistic at a 10-point margin, although I think this looks more like +14-15.

My prediction at that margin has several other counties flipping (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=85742.msg1772764#msg1772764).  In a few instances (e.g., Chelan) I think +10 would be enough to send McCain under 60% pretty easy, but whatevs.  It's a solid map considering you're doing so many.  Asotin and Clark were really only "typos."

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What's the margin of Obama's win here in MO?

In any case, I object to Obama carrying Mississippi county.  Bush carried it by 10 points.

I agreed with BRTD for the most part till he got to Missouri. Having a map that looks like Gore's is not likely, since Obama will not perform as well as Gore outside of St. Louis.

Be careful about underestimating how good of a candidate Bush was in some places...

Something in particular about this is going to piss StatesRights off a lot...

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The whole west coast is flipping to Obama? How much do you have him winning Florida by? That map is pretty ridiculous.

I think we have to disagree about Florida, BRTD.  I can't explain it, but it is tougher for me to believe Florida will go for Obama than for McCain.  Unless Obama racks up a national popular vote margin larger than 3 or 4% on election day, I think Florida will go for Mac.

If Florida actually goes for Obama, McCain will literally be hurting himself for choosing Sarah Palin.

I think MO is unrealistic.  I think Obama will pretty much run the gauntlet with urban and some suburban areas, and get mauled just about everywhere else. 

That's based off Obama +4-5, roughly the current polling numbers in Florida.

on second thought that MO is realistic, but I still don't see him carrying Platte and Clinton counties.  Well see though, I take back my previous post.

FL will be about 4-5% more GOP than the national, so if he wins by that, he probably wins Florida by 1-2% at best. I can't see the entire western coast of FL trending that hard left in that case.

The bolded part is where the logic goes wrong as that hasn't happened since 1988.

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     Still not much South, though I can kind of understand why. Southern states have tons of counties. :P

You mean 1992.  ;)

I think his point is that if the trend continues in FL, it will be about 4 points more GOP than the national average.

Tons of counties + boring = a toxic combo.

GHWB got about 40% in Florida and 37% nationwide.


https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=84653.0

Ya, but he won FL by 2 when he lost by 6 nationally.

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Um, yeah right. Why the hell would Hillsborough, Sarasota,Manatee, Pasco, Hernando and Monroe county suddenly swing left for Obama? Citrus and Levy Obama? LOL.  Inverness for Obama? I think not. Sorry BRTD, that's a pipe dream.

Manatee, Sarasota and Charlotte didn't even go for Clinton once.

I based the FL map off 2000 so I might've overestimated a bit and'll probably revamp it. But I have a theory about FL based off the current polling which if true will give some surprising results (trying to be vague Sam Spade-style.)

Monmouth is changing, though. It's become even more wealthy exurban, and the downscale areas have shrunk. Obama could still win if he massively increases his margin in Middletown and the rest of the northern coast, but, since there's no serious campaign in NJ, I doubt that happens.

Personally, I doubt Sussex ends up more Republican than Warren this year. But I suppose it could. Also, on the kind of result NJ is looking like, Union would be D>60.

I'll do some later, but some comments for now:

-As said above, Florida was probably a bit of an overstimation thanks to me basing it off the 2000 map, and will be revised, but I have a theory about parts of Florida that if true will lead to some surprising results. And the part that would piss of StatesRight is Hillsborough county, which is not changing.
-Kerry's performance in rural Missouri was not normal for a Democrat, even one losing by that margin. Nor was Gore's even. Look at the 2006 Senate map, McCaskill won some 2004 >60% Bush counties, and won a lot more than Kerry or Gore even though she did only three points better than Kerry in percentage of the vote. Kerry even lost Columbia county, which he had absolutely no business doing, and if Obama does I'll eat my shoe. For that map btw I'm assuming basically a tie, I have it going Obama but that might be wishful thinking, if you want to consider it an almost tie going McCain go ahead, there won't be much difference.
-If you note, Monmouth is >40, aka very close. I don't know about the demographic changes Verily mentions, but overall it seems to be a generally Republican county Gore overperformed in. Hell, Gore even almost won Ocean.

Here's a state that'll be tough to predict, but that I seem to have a strange talent for predicting right if the primary is any indication:

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I think, though I could easily be wrong, that Vanderburgh might fall before some of the river counties or even, maybe, before the likes of Porter.

Politico reports that the Florida Republican Party under Charlie Crist has broken with the McCain camp and is husbanding its money for the next election cycle. That's going to hurt the McCain ticket because they rely on institutional support in a big way in Florida.

This will be the first election in a very long while in which Florida's economy will be substantially worse off than the country's.

A state where retirees feel like kings in their paid-off homes and anyone with a wrench can make a good living is a Republican state. That doesn't quite describe the Gulf Coast in 2008.

Ok. When I was a kid, a lot of the upscale parts of Monmouth County were populated by the Jewish diaspora from New York, much as in Middlesex County. This is a group that swung quite a bit from 2000 to 2004, with 2000 easily a high-water mark. I'm not sure how far they'll swing back in 2008, but it helps that Palin is pushing all of the same buttons that Bush did on them.

On a more general note, the Census indicates that Monmouth is growing more slowly than the state as a whole, 2000-2006. The Asian population is significantly smaller than it is in Somerset, Mercer, or Middlesex Counties. Those two facts would seem to be hard to square with the idea of its growing more affluent via exurban growth, but you know more than I do.

Generalize much?

All the time! Aren't I good at it?

Maybe. It's >40 though.

Determining where exactly the swings were going to take place here was kind of tough:

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There are a number of interesting places in the South. How will racial turnout affect the counties of the Deep South? How will Obama do in the traditionally Democratic Tennessee River Valley of TN and AL? All the state polls are showing huge Democratic swings in VA and NC. Where will these be? How will Katrina impact voters along the MS and LA coasts?

I was thinking in terms of how boring most of Mississippi would be.

Anyway, I bet my Iowa map will probably give WalterMitty a heart attack when he sees it.

Ugh, Vigo county's gonna hurt.  It voted with every winner of a presidential election since 1920.

Virginia gogogo!

Could you post the margin whoever wins by along with the map, even if it's just a rough margin?

It's a shame you got all those annoying independent cities.


OK but I rarely have more than a rough margin in my head.

Here's a boring as shit one:

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Obama doing just very slightly worse than Kerry.

Well, I checked out Sioux County to make sure you had the color right, and you did! I am not sure Madison County should be blue, by the way.

I've seen Sioux County license plates here. It's weird. I'd figured here would be the last place any such person would go, they probably consider Sioux City an evil hotbed of debauchery much less Minneapolis. Then again maybe they're some of the few sane people escaping.

Madison County has almost no blacks or Catholics, and tends to float a bit, and has some commuters to Des Moines. I suspect it will swing more than the nation.

That's a valid reason it might not.

Al would know a lot more for this:

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Imagine McCain by about 7 or so. No he's not winning by double digits, yes, he's winning by less than Wyoming, no he's not close to winning every county.

I'm skeptical about Jefferson, Summers, Harrison, Wayne and Wyoming county.  Otherwise, it's okay.

Wyoming? It voted for Gore by over 10 points, and this margin is assuming a lot closer to Gore's numbers than Kerry's.

It doesn't necessarily mean that it will swing that much to Obama.  Obama would have to swing the county 17+ points in his direction.

So I suppose there was no way Bush could've won Wayne County in 2000.

Well, we'll see.  West Virginia is a state susceptible to wild swings, and is very unpredictable since we don't know who will turnout and in what numbers.

Do you think Obama will win more counties than Dukakis (he won 820; Kerry won 583)?

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     The eastern half of the country is becoming more popular I can see. ;)

Nicholas and Clay will probably fall before Harrison. Jefferson might swing hard, might hardly swing at all (it's on the edge of the DC metro area, with all that might be associated with that, you know...)

C'mon Zach. You've done the easier states. Finish the job :P

You're not getting any during the day because that's when I work. Though as I'm not working overtime this week I'll have more time to make them.

More maps! :)

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Obama has a really decent chance at breaking 60% in Missoula.  I think he'll do it.

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Important to mention that it's in the DC media market, which Obama is blanketing but where McCain has no ads up at all. Similarly we will see a swing to Obama in the Maryland counties covered by the DC market (but in Virginia the campaigns are far more visible as ground operations, of course). This is also happening in the Boston market (covering part of NH) and the Chicago market (covering part of IN).

Did you see the latest polling from SD when you constructed this? It's referenced on Daily Kos, which has its own poll coming out soon, and Obama's showing strength in the Sioux Falls area if not the southeast.

Yeah I saw it, McCain +7 and based this on it. Two things though:

1-I don't read much into subsamples due to the MoE>
2-It's going to take a lot more to swing Sioux Falls, due to the whole urban vs. rural partisanship thing.

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And all the black haters on Staten Island look like jokes.

I'd give the county with Utica to Obama.

Oh what the hey. Let's get controversial:

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This is almost exactly how I would make the map, though perhaps change Lake and Ottawa.

BRTD, when are you gonna do VA?

I can't wait to see Kentucky!

Very possibly tonight, I'd been putting it off for so long because of the annoying independent cities but there's little interesting left.

When are you going to do NC????

Possibly tonight, if not likely tomorrow if I have the time (I'll probably be busy lit dropping.)

Might as well get this boring one out of the way:

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somebody with the capacity to do it (for instance, bgwah) should make a compilation of all of these if they have the time on one of those nationwide county maps.

I would but I don't have a blank county map.

Wikipedia.

*yawn* This is actually a rather boring state.

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At this point, I expect San Diego county to go for Obama, but it will be very close.

San diego could go to Obama but you are right that SLO would flip first. Also keep an eye out for San Joaquin.

Wisconsin! Wisconsin! Wisconsin!

I'm starting to think SD county will turn as well.

Modoc still >70?  4 Realz?

Interesting. Those eastern counties aren't exactly easy to predict.

Here you go. Those independent cities are a huge huge pain.

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North Carolina and South Carolina should be soon!

I think there's a good chance Obama will win San Diego and San Joaquin counties.

Mr. "I Listen to Ben Folds and Weep" - could you post your rough estimate of actual topline results?  It helps me to analyze the map if you could say what number your prediction is based on.  - besides, it gives you a loophole out!  If you miss a state's top margin you can still claim your model was right given the margin you had predicted :)

Can someone find me a blank county map?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Map_of_USA_with_county_outlines.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Map_of_USA_with_county_outlines.png)

OK?

How much do you have Mccain winning Nevada county by? I think Obama stands a good chance if he gets about 59% of the vote or so, which is very much possible. Truckee seems like an Obama friendly town. I wonder what Lunar thinks about this.......Oh and Obama has a chance at Butte county as well, but only if the students at Chico state put down the beer bong for one day and go vote.

Tippecanoe will go Obama, though it will be extremely close.  In 2004 Bush did only 1% better statewide than he did in the county, BUT the massive swing in Indiana towards Obama has occurred among industrial workers such as are found in Lafayette.  And Purdue turnout will be vastly greater this time around.

Marion needs a deeper shade of red.

I spend a great deal of time in Porter County, though mostly in the Valparaiso area, which appears to be heavily conservative Republican.  Unless there are some liberal areas with which I'm unfamiliar, I can't see it going Obama.  This was a Goldwater county, though oddly enough it was also a Clinton '96 county.

Tippecanoe is possible, but I'm conservative with any 59% Bush county flipping.

Porter was only 53% Bush, so yes, clearly there are some other liberal areas (well actually industrial areas, like most of Lake and LaPorte.

Indiana is a 60% Bush state that is now a dead heat in the polls.  Also Tippecanoe has been trending Democrat compared to the rest of the state.  And there's the Purdue turnout.

Excellent job BRTD! I dont know why I never noticed this before, but I really did enjoy looking at your maps so far. Good job with CT.

More maps plz

Interesting.  What's his margin in Virginia?  What are his margins in Arlington and Alexandria?  I see him breaking 60% in Fairfax, and I'm reluctant to give him Loudon, Clarke, Chespeake City, Alleghany, Henrico, Buckingham, Fluvanna, Accomack, and Rappahanock.

Obama is polling 2-1 in northern Virginia per Survey USA... I think it's a given he wins Loudoun.

Yeah I see him overperforming Webb in NOVA as well as the black areas/Richmond. Mccain should do better than Allen in the western part of the state and the white/military areas of the southeast. The Mccain camp really fukced up by insulting NOVA imho.

Kickass thread.

Fairfax is rather polarized. Breaking 60% there is hard unless it's a just plain not competitive at all race (like Warner will.) But if that happens one will easily win Loudon, Webb did, Obama should easily.

More coming tonight.

NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA

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Who wins in NC?  According to your map, it looks awfully close.

Consider it a tie. It won't look much different depending on whichever one pulls off a narrow win.

I'd be surprised if Obama wins Forsyth county, but its possible.

Why does this state have so many counties anyway?

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I think Lancaster county will be a squeaker for McCain -- about 2 points or so.  I do think that you should lower Saline into 40% territory, though.  It will be really damn close.

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BRTD you should give a rough estimate of your predicted winner.  That way, if you are wrong, we can give you more of a leeway since you missed the whole stat by 3% or whatevsky.

You can put an astrix by it to signal that the actual state-wide topline result is not your prediction, but it'd help us to see what numbers you're working with!

Keep up the good work though!

That'll come election eve when I'll give the numbers for every state.

New York!

Damn, how'd I miss that...

Anyway, looks good. I'd love to see Obama pull an upset in Putnum but it probably won't happen.

Oh God yes. I just drank the perfect amount of alcohol. You know how you're tipsy but can still walk straight? Just more flexible? Buzzed but not anywhere near being sick? That's what I got. It's fucking perfect. I hate to go overboard now but I think I'll press my luck with one more shot.

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Finally, some Kerry-McCain counties.

You weren't paying attention in the past.

Were there any other than TN and KY?  If so, I must have missed out on a few.

Virginia.

when will Wisconsin be done? i dont think i saw it on here yet,

Oh yeah, I remember posting about Dickenson.

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Is the margin in AL about the same as in '04?

A little less.

Probably because of black turnout in Montgomery and Butler.

Appleton and Green Bay were tough ones. I decided to trust Beef's judgment:

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I realize you probably hate that county, but I can't see St. Croix going for McCain. I'm sure it will be close, but this is the type of place that the financial crisis should hurt Republicans a lot.

Actually the county I hate most (beside the obvious choices of Waukesha and the like) is Brown. Hate hate hate hate hate that place. The reason should be obvious. :)

More interesting than I expected actually:

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living near st croix id say it will very likely go for mccain its a bunch of white middle ranged middle class people who moved from minnesota the kind of people who are mccains base and the last time i was there i saw only mccain signs not that that says all that much but theres alot of republicans in that area.
im not even sure my county [barron]will go obama but it does stand a pretty good chance being about even in the last two elections and its a fairly working class area on whole i think the Wisconsin map is a bit on the high side for obama but it could go that way.

Good new maps, I would flip a few more rural Illinois counties(ethanol) though.

Why do you have Obama doing so badly in Illinois? I'd expect him to win the vast majority of counties.

Kerry got 54%, he's pulling around 60%, that's a strong gain but still not enough to flip those rural blue counties. But still, he has DuPage!

Urgh.

Hey, you know I don't like that place anymore than you do. It's just the historical factor!

I don't know, maybe. I'm just looking at Dick Durbin's 2002 map, where he got 60% to 38% (pretty much exactly what the new Rass poll says Obama is getting right now):

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Rural IL became much more conservative, and Chicago suburbs have become much more liberal since 2002.

Obama will not have that much appeal in southern Illinois and I don't think he is as popular with farmers as Durbin is. Ethanol will get him to have some very good results in the central part of the state though I think.

Obama has done this before:

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Too bad it won't happen this time.

I'm not sure I agree with that first part, but with regard to Durbin's success downstate: he's from Springfield, whereas Obama, obviously, is a Chicago pol.  So much of voting patterns in Illinois has long been driven by candidates' and parties' home bases in the three regions - Chicago, its suburbs, and everywhere else.

You know, the only really interesting state left is Pennsylvania, but the purpose of this thread is to post county map predictions, not bitch with Phil for 10 pages about I'm a hack for predicting Obama will win Beaver county.

We'll see what comes up later tonight.

As a general rule things do not change that quickly. More significant, perhaps, is the fact that Durbin is a downstate pol (used to be congresscritter for the area around East St Louis IIRC) while Obama is a product of the Chicago machine.

What about Georgia?  It looks like that state will have one of the larger swings toward Obama.

If there bist a huge swing to Obama in Georgia it'll be because of better Black turnout. And we know were they live anyway.

Yeah, not really interesting. Hell even Atlanta suburbs shouldn't be that interesting.

Hmm.  I guess, but I could see some swings in that, how shall I describe it, seatbelt-shaped swath of counties that went for Barnes in 2002 but Purdue in 2006.

:(

I just realized I basically need to finish these off tonight, since tommorow night I'm going to be training for my new position most of the day, and then doing a late night lit drop. So whatever, whine away Phil:

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Texas! :)

What's the margin in PA?

7 more states, and they are all in the south.

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Yet another boring map, just a general swing to Obama due to more blacks and less white evangelicals voting. Yawn.

don't let Al's hatred of the wealthy bother you

Texas looks interesting.

Something like 53-46.


Too bad it's a giant pain.

Woo! Berks County Pride! ^__^ *beeming*

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So you think Charleston swings to the Democrats this time? It very well could.

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What's with Greene county? 

The state I expect to most closely resemble 2004 in vote percentage by the way:

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2004 was a gigantic fluke.

I'm not so sure about that. This is one place that has moved away from most Democrats who aren't named Bob Casey... Rendell got only 55 percent there in 2006. Against a Negro!

That's an area that's going to have lots of Steelers fans.

"Rendell" is the key part of that sentence. Rendell's base is eastern PA; western PA is not too fond of him. (The Steelers effect was, of course, also in play.) You'll also note serious underperformance by Rendell in Westmoreland and Washington counties, and even in Allegheny County, where Rendell ran behind his statewide numbers.

There is seriously a Steelers affect in Pennsylvania?

Only if Lynn Swann is running.

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Waller County? Really? Some of the swings in the Panhandle look weird, too, as does Terrell County. I'm also surprised you don't think Obama will break 60% in Travis County.

Rendell won Western PA counties... If there was a Steelers affect, Swann would've won those counties, because the Steelers are as close to religion as you get here.

Look at Rendell's numbers in western PA against Casey's there. Rendell did shockingly poorly for a Democrat winning 60% of the vote statewide in western PA. Do you really think Allegheny County would normally be less Democratic than the state as a whole? Compare it to Kerry's result in 2004 if you must.

First of all keep in mind I based this more off the 2000 map which I think more accurately reflects Republican/Democratic splits.


Almost 30% black, and almost 20% Hispanic. Gore lost it by less than 6 points.

Some of the swings in the Panhandle look weird, too, as does Terrell County.[/quote]

See what I said at the beginning, although I didn't realize how much Terrell swung in 2004. Maybe I should revise that. Then again it's also where my signature is set. :)


He probably will actually, let me revise that.

You haven't done Georgia yet, have you?

That's the last one. And it'll have to come between my training and my lit-dropping tomorrow night because I am going to bed.

Bravo!

I'm not really convinced that the east-west division will be that marked (though it's possible, certainly it's possible). There's no evidence to suggest that Western Pennsylvania is an especially racist area (that the assertion that it is have been so heavily peddled by hopeful (!) Republic partisans adds... aha...) and I can't really think of any reasons specific to the area (beyond, perhaps, a wider problem with traditional working class areas (which may or may not be confined to the primaries), I mean if Washington falls you'd expect maybe Luzerne to go as well) to explain a swing against Obama there (a low swing would be a different matter). Flipping this around... I'm also not sure quite how much of an appeal Obama has to outer-metropolitan areas.

ill be pleasantly surprised if nueces county and bexar both swing to obama

*pops in*

Obama might actually do better in NE* NM than you indicated. Call it a hunch**, and treat it accordingly. :P Actually, keep an eye on Valencia, Hidalgo, and Luna Counties as well - I think the latter two might swing before Los Alamos does.

*I'm referring to Union, Harding, and Quay Counties, mostly.
**Not based on tons and tons of data, just on the fact that once in a while that area does swing to the Dems, unlike the harder-to-crack SE NM.

*pops out*

Here you go, all 50 states. Though I might revise Florida when I get off litdropping:

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Yay!  And that red seatbelt is back!

Funny thing, though, with regard to yard signs.  I've been in this area for work for a few weeks, and in passing through Glascock County (dark blue in that patch of red in east-central GA), I saw many more Obama and Martin signs than anything else, and in Hancock County (dark red just to the west of Glascock), I saw nearly as many McCain signs as Obama signs.  So these yard sign anecdotes are really meaningless as predictors of voting outcomes.

::heart::

Don't sweat over Brown (Green Bay).  Outagamie (Appleton) will be close, and Winnebago (Oshkosh/Neenah/Menasha) will be closer than close.  I still give them to Obama.

Upper Lake Michigan shore is also difficult to assess.  The rural culture is extremely traditional (I went to high school in rural northeast Wisconsin), but the cities/villages of Manitowoc, Two Rivers, Kewaunee, and Algoma should swing these to Obama.  There are progressive tendencies among a lot of the Catholics and Lutherans, and race isn't an issue at all.  Marinette County is a similar situation.  I decided to give it to McCain.

Alright, I revised Florida a bit:

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I told you that McCain would win Somerset, MD; Greene, PA; Shoshone, ID; and Wyoming, West Virginia. :P