Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: Hash on October 26, 2008, 08:30:21 AM



Title: Israel 2009
Post by: Hash on October 26, 2008, 08:30:21 AM
It seems like Tzipi Livni has failed to form a government, with the Shas refusing to work with Kadima. Seems like elections in February.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1031253.html


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Hash on October 26, 2008, 09:07:40 AM
Random poll I found (change from 2006)

Likud 29 (+17)
Kadima 25 (-4)
Labor 14 (-5)
Yisrael Beiteinu 12 (+1)
Shas 9 (-3)
NU-NRP 8 (-1)
UTJ 5 (-1)
Yachad 4 (-1)
Social Justice 2 (new)
Greenies 2 (+2)
Gil 0 (-7)
"Arab Parties" 10 (0)


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on October 26, 2008, 09:08:50 AM
Random poll I found

Likud 29
Kadima 25
Labor 14

OMG


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on October 26, 2008, 11:41:19 AM
Crap.

On second thought, a Likud government might actually be a good thing. But the Israeli electoral system still sucks.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on October 26, 2008, 11:45:03 AM
I like Bibi, so a Likud government wouldn't be all that bad.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: ag on October 27, 2008, 06:08:02 PM
Today's Haaretz cites a poll from Dahaf Research (no clue what they are). In brackets change from the current Knesset

Kadima 29 (nil)
Likud 26 (+14)
Labor 11 (-8)

They also cite TNS Teleseker for almost the same results:

Kadima 31 (+2)
Likud 29 (+17)
Labor 11 (-8)

I shall try to find the details

Update: Jpost confirms these. Dahaf has a sample of 500 voters, TNS of 900 voters.  But neither paper has the full breakdown


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: ag on October 27, 2008, 06:20:52 PM
Ok, here is the full Dahaf breakdown:

Kadima 29 (nil)
Likud 26 (+14)
Labor 11 (-8)
Shas 11 (-1)
Yisrael Beiteinu 9 (-2)
NU-NRP 7 (-2)
UTJ 7 (+1)
Meretz 6 (+1)
Greens 2 (+2)
Gil 2 (-5)
"Arab Parties" 10 (nil)

If this were to happen, religious parties would be key, as neither of the two likely secular parings would work. Likud + YB = 35. Kadima+Labor=40. It could also be some sort of a grand coalition, as Kadma+Likud would have 55 seats, only 6 short of a majority, and could form the gov't w/ any one of YB (likely unacceptable to Kadima), Shas, NU-NRP,UTJ or Meretz (won't work w/ Likud, though).


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: ag on October 27, 2008, 06:32:46 PM
And here is TNS

Kadima 31 (+2)
Likud 29 (+17)
Labor 11 (-8)
Yisrael Beiteinu 11 (nil)
Shas 8 (-4)
NU-NRP 7 (-2)
Meretz 5 (nil)
UTJ 4 (-2)
Green 3 (+3)
Gil 0 (-7)
"Arab Parties" 11 (+1)

Broadly consistent, with the other one, except that it shows the two large parties slightly stronger and the religious parties somewhat weaker. If this one holds, Shas were the true idiots.

BTW, if this one happens, Kadima+Labor+Meretz+Green+Arabs would have a majority. Of course, they'd never form such a coalition, but that would mean that no reasonable coalition at all would be possible without Kadima.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Hash on October 27, 2008, 06:41:15 PM
Weird that TNS is seeing 11 Arab seats.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Verily on October 27, 2008, 07:06:25 PM
Weird that TNS is seeing 11 Arab seats.

Not impossible at all. The Arab parties went from 8 to 10 seats in the 2006 elections (both new seats going to the United Arab List).

Anyway, good to see Kadima in the lead, if only narrowly. Hopefully the disaster of Netanyahu will be averted.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Hash on October 27, 2008, 07:12:04 PM
Weird that TNS is seeing 11 Arab seats.

Not impossible at all. The Arab parties went from 8 to 10 seats in the 2006 elections (both new seats going to the United Arab List).

Yes, I know. But all other pollsters seem to have 10 seats for the Arabs. Do they not count those seats and allocate a set number in each poll?


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: ag on October 27, 2008, 08:13:23 PM
Weird that TNS is seeing 11 Arab seats.

Not impossible at all. The Arab parties went from 8 to 10 seats in the 2006 elections (both new seats going to the United Arab List).

Yes, I know. But all other pollsters seem to have 10 seats for the Arabs. Do they not count those seats and allocate a set number in each poll?

I am sure they truly poll. It's simply that the "Arab party" electorate is rather well-defined. Still, the exact numbers and the distribution across parties might affect how many "Arab party seats" there will be, and a single seat is well within the margin of error.

BTW, "Arab party" designation is not fully right. One of the "Arab parties" is a coalition including the Communists. Normally (though, I am not sure if that was the case last time) one of the "Arab party" MKs is a Jew (for a while it was Tamar Gozanski, later Dov Chenin). A better designation would be "Arab and bi-communal parties": but it wouldn't be PC in Israel :)


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Verily on October 30, 2008, 07:53:35 PM
Just something to note for the unwary, Gil apparently underpolls ridiculously; they were below the threshold in most of the polls prior to 2006 and won 7 seats.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Umengus on October 31, 2008, 12:11:09 PM
Go likud!


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: DownWithTheLeft on November 01, 2008, 10:09:42 AM
Go Arab Parties!

Idk much but given Constine's support Likud must be awful


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Hash on November 01, 2008, 10:16:46 AM

Even Hadash?


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on November 01, 2008, 10:26:18 AM
Idk much but given Constine's support Likud must be awful

I'm still a Kadima guy, but I also like Bibi.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: DownWithTheLeft on November 01, 2008, 10:33:38 AM
Idk who they are, but if they are Arab Parties in Israel then yes


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Hash on November 01, 2008, 10:36:17 AM

Commies.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: ag on November 01, 2008, 01:12:16 PM

Well, they are usually lumped up w/ Arab parties, but they are, actually, Commies ( strictly speaking, a coalition including the Commies proper). They have a non-negligible Jewish vote (that is, non-negligible as a proportion of their vote) and sometimes elect Jewish MKs. The Israeli political spectrum can be divided into Zionist parties (everyone from Meretz to Yisrael Beiteinu), non-Zionist religious parties (say, Shas), and non-Zionist parties, which are usually called Arab parties. But Hadash is, actually, non-Zionist bi-communal.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on November 01, 2008, 02:11:49 PM
I like الجبهه الدمقراطية للسلام والمساواة.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on November 02, 2008, 06:01:13 AM
the elections will be on the 10th of February and it will be the First elections I can vote in.
Anyway i'm leaning likud rught now (but might change).


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Thomas216 on November 02, 2008, 10:56:47 AM
Just something to note for the unwary, Gil apparently underpolls ridiculously; they were below the threshold in most of the polls prior to 2006 and won 7 seats.
Gil was underpolled in 2006 but chances are that the party will vanish in 2009, it's a fringe party that had no influence since 2006 though it might (unlikely) get up to 5 seats.
The Greens is unlikely to get above the threshold and Social-Justice also unlikely (though more likely then the Greens).

The Arab parties will get about 9-11 seats and will stay in the opposition just like they did in very Knesset I believe since they were founded, the competition then will be between Livny and Bibi, or the Likud and Kadima.
I believe Bibi will take it and I'll probably vote for him (or maybe for the National Union) though I am proud of having a woman as a major candidate, it's just that Livny is unqualified and too to the far-left as far as I'm concerned.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on November 02, 2008, 12:41:17 PM
I can't prove it, but I don't think Gil really underpolled. I think it was more a case of people that didn't like any party that made up their minds in the last minute.

The latest poll i saw on TV showed Likud and Kadima tied at 31 with Yisrael beitenu at 11 and labor and shas with 10 (lol at labor).


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on November 20, 2008, 12:32:48 PM
Good news for me, a new poll shows Likud gaining:

Likud: 32
Kadima: 26
Shas: 11
"arab parties": 11
Yisrael beitenu(Lieberman): 9
Labor: 8 (lol Baraks pathetic)
Meretz: 7
UTJ: 7
The Jewish home (replaces Nrp-Nru): 6
Greens: 3

link: http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3625850,00.html (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3625850,00.html)


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: dunn on November 20, 2008, 01:26:50 PM
Haaretz-Dialoge poll:

Likud: 34
Kadima: 28
Labor: 10
Shas: 10
"arab parties": 10
Yisrael beitenu(Lieberman): 9
Meretz: 7
UTJ: 7
The Jewish home (replaces Nrp-Nru): 4
Greens: 0-2


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Umengus on November 21, 2008, 04:05:05 PM
Go bibi!


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: big bad fab on November 24, 2008, 10:12:34 AM
The Israeli electoral system (but also greater and greater difficulties to have stable majorities in Germany, Austria, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovakia, Czech rep., Baltic states, etc.) makes the British first-past-the-vote system appear to be the best one in the world.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Hash on November 24, 2008, 03:56:57 PM
The Israeli electoral system (but also greater and greater difficulties to have stable majorities in Germany, Austria, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovakia, Czech rep., Baltic states, etc.) makes the British first-past-the-vote system appear to be the best one in the world.

It was 1% before, then 1.5%. Now it's 2.5%.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Jens on November 24, 2008, 05:40:23 PM
The Israeli electoral system (but also greater and greater difficulties to have stable majorities in Germany, Austria, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovakia, Czech rep., Baltic states, etc.) makes the British first-past-the-vote system appear to be the best one in the world.
You mean having a party with a large majority in parliament (55%) with 35% of the votes is the best. Sure, much better to avoid giving dissatisfied votes representation than having to deal with opposition. That is probably why turnout is sooo high in FPTP-systems (61% UK to 87% in DK, 77% in N & 78% in G).


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on November 24, 2008, 06:19:10 PM
The Israeli electoral system (but also greater and greater difficulties to have stable majorities in Germany, Austria, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovakia, Czech rep., Baltic states, etc.) makes the British first-past-the-vote system appear to be the best one in the world.
You mean having a party with a large majority in parliament (55%) with 35% of the votes is the best. Sure, much better to avoid giving dissatisfied votes representation than having to deal with opposition. That is probably why turnout is sooo high in FPTP-systems (61% UK to 87% in DK, 77% in N & 78% in G).

PR is good in countries that are stable electorally, but not in those that are unstable.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on November 24, 2008, 11:27:29 PM
The Israeli electoral system (but also greater and greater difficulties to have stable majorities in Germany, Austria, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovakia, Czech rep., Baltic states, etc.) makes the British first-past-the-vote system appear to be the best one in the world.
Using the British system in Israel would be completely unrepresentative and wouldn't necessarily make things more stable, because caertain minorities who have their own parties tend to live in their own areas so you would still need coalitions.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on November 24, 2008, 11:52:23 PM
The Israeli electoral system (but also greater and greater difficulties to have stable majorities in Germany, Austria, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovakia, Czech rep., Baltic states, etc.) makes the British first-past-the-vote system appear to be the best one in the world.
Using the British system in Israel would be completely unrepresentative and wouldn't necessarily make things more stable, because caertain minorities who have their own parties tend to live in their own areas so you would still need coalitions.

It'd be the big parties, a few fundies, and the Arabs, AFAIK.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on November 25, 2008, 12:04:08 AM
The Israeli electoral system (but also greater and greater difficulties to have stable majorities in Germany, Austria, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovakia, Czech rep., Baltic states, etc.) makes the British first-past-the-vote system appear to be the best one in the world.
Using the British system in Israel would be completely unrepresentative and wouldn't necessarily make things more stable, because caertain minorities who have their own parties tend to live in their own areas so you would still need coalitions.

It'd be the big parties, a few fundies, and the Arabs, AFAIK.
Basically, yes but while both the national religious settlements (extreme right), south Tel Aviv (poor mizrahi) and south Ashdod (Russians) would all probably elect a Likud guy they would be very different.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on November 25, 2008, 12:27:10 AM
The Israeli electoral system (but also greater and greater difficulties to have stable majorities in Germany, Austria, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovakia, Czech rep., Baltic states, etc.) makes the British first-past-the-vote system appear to be the best one in the world.
Using the British system in Israel would be completely unrepresentative and wouldn't necessarily make things more stable, because caertain minorities who have their own parties tend to live in their own areas so you would still need coalitions.

It'd be the big parties, a few fundies, and the Arabs, AFAIK.
Basically, yes but while both the national religious settlements (extreme right), south Tel Aviv (poor mizrahi) and south Ashdod (Russians) would all probably elect a Likud guy they would be very different.

But they would all come from the same party, making coalitions easier.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on November 26, 2008, 05:44:02 AM
The Israeli electoral system (but also greater and greater difficulties to have stable majorities in Germany, Austria, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovakia, Czech rep., Baltic states, etc.) makes the British first-past-the-vote system appear to be the best one in the world.
Using the British system in Israel would be completely unrepresentative and wouldn't necessarily make things more stable, because caertain minorities who have their own parties tend to live in their own areas so you would still need coalitions.

It'd be the big parties, a few fundies, and the Arabs, AFAIK.
Basically, yes but while both the national religious settlements (extreme right), south Tel Aviv (poor mizrahi) and south Ashdod (Russians) would all probably elect a Likud guy they would be very different.

But they would all come from the same party, making coalitions easier.
I think your underestimating the ability of Israeli politicians to fight amongst eachother. It's already common for parties to split and for MKs to leave their party when they're supposed to be more homogenous.
Besides even if they work it out it would just give even more sway to the haredi.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 26, 2008, 06:49:14 AM
I think your underestimating the ability of Israeli politicians to fight amongst eachother.

Which is not something that you should ever, ever do.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Jens on November 26, 2008, 08:42:16 AM
The Israeli electoral system (but also greater and greater difficulties to have stable majorities in Germany, Austria, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovakia, Czech rep., Baltic states, etc.) makes the British first-past-the-vote system appear to be the best one in the world.
You mean having a party with a large majority in parliament (55%) with 35% of the votes is the best. Sure, much better to avoid giving dissatisfied votes representation than having to deal with opposition. That is probably why turnout is sooo high in FPTP-systems (61% UK to 87% in DK, 77% in N & 78% in G).

PR is good in countries that are stable electorally, but not in those that are unstable.
It's more about respecting the rules of democracy. PR fx makes it possible in times of crisis to have a parliament that reflect public opinion. FPTP makes it very impossible for new political forces to break through.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on November 28, 2008, 04:23:15 AM
Up to now this is turning in to a bizarre election so far where most parties seem to be fighting amongst themselves rather than against each other.

 Labor is the funniest case where Barak forced through a vote in the party committee to have non-secret voting for "shiryunim" (deciding in advance a certain place for a certain person in the party before the primaries) to make sure his buddies get in. However, the plan backfired when it was eventually decided that an open ballot was against the party constitution so the whole thing was canceled. The whole affair was of course accompanied by fighting between the Barak camp and some anti-Barak party activists.

 Kadima- Following the announcement of Meni Mazuz (officially called the legal adviser to the government but is the Israeli version of attorney general) that he will press charges against Olmert on corruption charges, Livni, Kadimas chairwoman and the acting prime minister, called for Olmert, Her own parties representative, to step down. Of course, par the course with Livni, she did in a gutless hypocritical way since Olmert said no she seems to have no desire to actually resign from her roles in Olmert's government.

 Likud- Following the polls showing a Likud win suddenly a whole bunch of people, some of whom with very questionable ties to the party, decided to run in the primaries. These people have been welcomed with great fanfare and press conferences by bibi, something that's causing a murmur amongst Likud old timers. Also the primaries are heating up between the moderate wing of the party( Meridor, Hefetz, sort of bibi etc) and the more hawkish wing (Benny Begin (son of) Zeev Zhabotinsky (grandson of) Feiglin, and the Likud rebels).
 On a personal note, if the hawkish side wins I'll definitely vote Likud, if the moderate wing wins I'll have to reconsider.

 The Jewish home- A total mess, this party is a union between the NRP and the National Union parties. the main point of the union seemed to be to have a single primary amongst them to decide the placings in the list. To decide on how the primary will be conducted they set up a committee to set the rules. Except rather than do their job, they decided not to have any primaries and to simply decide on the placings itself, using the the excuse that primaries would be divisive (as if the decision to cancel the primaries wasn't...). This decision caused the members of the former parties to blame one another of being behind the decision because they were afraid to lose in the primaries.

 United Torah Judaism- The big fight is over the aftermath of the Jerusalem Municipal election where the haredi candidate, mk Porush, was hated by several hasidic sects, most prominent among them being the Gur, after Porush supposedly screwed them over in past. This resulted in the Gur voting for the secular candidate, and being partially "to blame" for Porush's loss. The whole ordeal caused a huge rift between the Porush camp and between Gur and allies, with both sides threatening not to vote for the party as long as the other side will be represented in the list.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on November 28, 2008, 04:59:01 AM
new poll:

Likud- 35
Kadima- 26
Shas- 10
"arab parties"- 10
Yisrael Beitenu- 9
Meretz- 8
Labor- 7
UTJ- 6
The Jewish Home- 6
Greens- 3


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Hash on November 28, 2008, 07:46:44 AM
lol Labor.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on December 01, 2008, 02:11:55 PM
New poll in Yisrael hayom by "new wave":

Likud 35
Kadima 26
Yisrael Beitenu10
Shas 10
Labor 8
Meretz 7
Jewish home 5
UTJ 5
Greens 2
GIL 2

they the combine it to right- 65, left- 55.The paper is right that Kadima is left nowadays but GIL is more problematic.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on December 02, 2008, 02:18:22 PM
Lol, just when you think Labor can't get more pathetic they do this:

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3631836,00.html (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3631836,00.html)

idiots.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Yamor on December 02, 2008, 02:23:36 PM
What is causing the widening gap between Likud and Kadima? Also, is the infighting in Likud (Beilin) making any difference?


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on December 02, 2008, 02:33:49 PM
What is causing the widening gap between Likud and Kadima?
Not sure, but probably in part due to the many people who joined Likud lately.
Also, is the infighting in Likud (Beilin) making any difference?

You mean Feiglin (Beilin is the former Meretz chairman) and I don't think care about it yet but if he gets in and Kadima attacks Likud over his presence it will.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Yamor on December 02, 2008, 04:05:08 PM
Interesting, and yes, I did mean Feiglin.

I saw somewhere today that Shas, interestingly, are reaching out to the Arabs, even giving them one place on their list, someone called Najib Me'udi. He says he thinks he could get them 20,000 votes. That's basically another seat. It must be a first for an ultra-orthodox party.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on December 04, 2008, 02:25:28 PM
Today they had the Labor primaries for a second and it seems to have gone off okay, and the results should known by tomorrow . Of course, because of the events in hebron the elections have become an afterthought in the news and are barely mentioned.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Hash on December 04, 2008, 03:42:51 PM
Get out of this thread, Stark. And Ben, don't feed the troll.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on December 04, 2008, 03:47:46 PM
Right.  Sorry.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Thomas216 on December 05, 2008, 06:59:02 AM
The 2009 Knesset election's list of the Labour party:
1. Ehud Barak (b. 1942, former PM and current leader of the party, didn't participate in the primaries as the chairman of the party)
2. Isaac Herzog (b. 1960, current minister of Welfare and Social Services, son of former president of Israel and Labour MK Chaim Herzog)
3. Ofir Pines (b. 1961, former minister of internal affairs and a powerful figure in the party, I'd say one of the frontrunners in future Labour chairman elections).
4. Avishay Braverman (b. 1948, a man of the academy, former president of a university and the head of a powerful Knesset committee, resembling the committees of appropriations and of the budget in US congress combined)
5. Shelly Yachimovich (b. 1960, former journalist and a future prospect of the party)
6. Matan Vilnai (b. 1944, former general and Deputy Chief of Staff in the IDF, current deputy defence minister)
7. Eitan Cabel (b. 1959, didn’t participate in the primaries, slot reserved to the Labour general secretary)
8. Binyamin Ben-Eliezer (b. 1936, minister of National Infrastructure, former Labour chairman and defence minister)
9. Yuli Tamir (b. 1954, minister of education, 9th slot reserved to women, otherwise would have been 10th)
10. Amir Peretz (b. 1952, former Labour chairman and defence minister during the last war)
11. Daniel Ben-Simon (b. 1953, a new-comer, former journalist)
12. Shalon Simhon (b. 1956, minister of Agriculture, the slot reserved to the Moshavim, a rural sector in Israel)
13. Orit Noked (b. 1952, the slot reserved to the Kibbutzim, traditionaly a pro-Labour sector)
14. Einat Vilf (b. 1970)

Most polls today shows the ILP with 7-8 seats though I won’t be surprised if it get up to 12 seats.
All in all can't say I'm surprised with the primaries results.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: big bad fab on December 05, 2008, 09:17:45 AM
The Israeli electoral system (but also greater and greater difficulties to have stable majorities in Germany, Austria, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovakia, Czech rep., Baltic states, etc.) makes the British first-past-the-vote system appear to be the best one in the world.
You mean having a party with a large majority in parliament (55%) with 35% of the votes is the best. Sure, much better to avoid giving dissatisfied votes representation than having to deal with opposition. That is probably why turnout is sooo high in FPTP-systems (61% UK to 87% in DK, 77% in N & 78% in G).

PR is good in countries that are stable electorally, but not in those that are unstable.
It's more about respecting the rules of democracy. PR fx makes it possible in times of crisis to have a parliament that reflect public opinion. FPTP makes it very impossible for new political forces to break through.

Do you think
negotiations during months and months between political parties on things or names not chosen by election,
very short-term management because of instability and interim governments,
choice of the leader, not by people, but by some bigwigs in parties that may have even lose,..., as it occurred in Belgium, Slovakia, Baltic States, Israel, etc,
a guarantee for democracy and expression of the people's will ?

It's doubtful.
No electoral system is perfect, but, nowadays, the problem is more one of stability and long-term viewpoints and policies than one of expression of minorities and diversity of opinions.

Sure, what I say here is very general, not to be applied specifically to Israel, in a torn region, with war, problems of land, etc...


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on December 07, 2008, 05:04:47 PM
The 2009 Knesset election's list of the Labour party:
1. Ehud Barak (b. 1942, former PM and current leader of the party, didn't participate in the primaries as the chairman of the party)
2. Isaac Herzog (b. 1960, current minister of Welfare and Social Services, son of former president of Israel and Labour MK Chaim Herzog)
3. Ofir Pines (b. 1961, former minister of internal affairs and a powerful figure in the party, I'd say one of the frontrunners in future Labour chairman elections).
4. Avishay Braverman (b. 1948, a man of the academy, former president of a university and the head of a powerful Knesset committee, resembling the committees of appropriations and of the budget in US congress combined)
5. Shelly Yachimovich (b. 1960, former journalist and a future prospect of the party)
6. Matan Vilnai (b. 1944, former general and Deputy Chief of Staff in the IDF, current deputy defence minister)
7. Eitan Cabel (b. 1959, didn’t participate in the primaries, slot reserved to the Labour general secretary)
8. Binyamin Ben-Eliezer (b. 1936, minister of National Infrastructure, former Labour chairman and defence minister)
9. Yuli Tamir (b. 1954, minister of education, 9th slot reserved to women, otherwise would have been 10th)
10. Amir Peretz (b. 1952, former Labour chairman and defence minister during the last war)
11. Daniel Ben-Simon (b. 1953, a new-comer, former journalist)
12. Shalon Simhon (b. 1956, minister of Agriculture, the slot reserved to the Moshavim, a rural sector in Israel)
13. Orit Noked (b. 1952, the slot reserved to the Kibbutzim, traditionaly a pro-Labour sector)
14. Einat Vilf (b. 1970)

Most polls today shows the ILP with 7-8 seats though I won’t be surprised if it get up to 12 seats.
All in all can't say I'm surprised with the primaries results.

Interesting; I'm looking forward to these elections.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Yamor on December 07, 2008, 05:26:19 PM
As we get closer, it seems increasingly likely that Likud will win, although I'm sure it'll be closer then the polls suggest. I'm more interested in how well Shas and Yisroel Beiteinu will do - both potentially important coalition parties for Likud.
Anyone know anything about surplus-vote-agreements, or is it too early for that?


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Hash on December 07, 2008, 05:44:01 PM
As we get closer, it seems increasingly likely that Likud will win, although I'm sure it'll be closer then the polls suggest. I'm more interested in how well Shas and Yisroel Beiteinu will do - both potentially important coalition parties for Likud.
Anyone know anything about surplus-vote-agreements, or is it too early for that?

I think Shas will lose some ground, while Yisrael Beiteinu will gain some ground. Then, I'm not a genius on Israeli elections. I hope the Greens do well.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Yamor on December 07, 2008, 05:49:59 PM
It'll be touch and go for the greens to make the threshold.
Another interesting thing will be the situation with UTJ: will they run together or not? If they don't, will they both make the threshold?


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on December 08, 2008, 04:30:21 PM

Today is the primaries in the Likud, and just like Labor it seems they can't get the computers to work properly which caused long lines at the polls so they have extended the voting until 1:00 at night. btw, all these problems have caused Kadima to announce that they're moving to paper ballots.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on December 08, 2008, 09:12:05 PM
The Likud list after preliminary results in the primary:

1. Bibi

2. Gidon Saar

3. Gilad Erdan

4. Rubi Rivlin

5. Benny Begin

6. Moshe Kachlon

7. Silvan Shalom

8. Boogey Yeelon

9. Yuval Shteinitz

10. Lea Ness

11. Yisrael Katz

12. Yuli Edelstein

13. Limor Livnat

14. Yossi Peled

15. Chaim Katz

16. Michael Eitan

17. Dan Meridor (this guy is Israels bellwether, he supported Bibi in 96, Barak in 99, Sharon in 01 and 03, Olmert in 06 and now he's going for Bibi).

18. Tzipi Chutubli

19. Gila Gamliel

20. Moshe Feiglin

21. Zeev Elkin ( currently an Mk from Kadima but will be on the LIkud list.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: dmet41 on December 09, 2008, 01:22:07 AM
The Likud list after preliminary results in the primary:

1. Bibi

2. Gidon Saar

3. Gilad Erdan

4. Rubi Rivlin

5. Benny Begin

6. Moshe Kachlon

7. Silvan Shalom

8. Boogey Yeelon

9. Yuval Shteinitz

10. Lea Ness

11. Yisrael Katz

12. Yuli Edelstein

13. Limor Livnat

14. Yossi Peled

15. Chaim Katz

16. Michael Eitan

17. Dan Meridor (this guy is Israels bellwether, he supported Bibi in 96, Barak in 99, Sharon in 01 and 03, Olmert in 06 and now he's going for Bibi).

18. Tzipi Chutubli

19. Gila Gamliel

20. Moshe Feiglin

21. Zeev Elkin ( currently an Mk from Kadima but will be on the LIkud list.

Wow, with the exception of Meridor it seems as though Netayanyahu's efforts to bring the party to the center have failed especially with Feiglin in the top 20. At least we know who is going to be running the party when Bibi retires...


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on December 09, 2008, 04:46:14 AM

Wow, with the exception of Meridor it seems as though Netayanyahu's efforts to bring the party to the center have failed especially with Feiglin in the top 20. At least we know who is going to be running the party when Bibi retires...

yeah, this is a victory for the right wing within the Likud, and with a list like this I have finally made up my mind that I'm voting for Likud. hopefully Bibi gets replaced as party chairman next election so there is a proper right leadership in the Likud.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: dmet41 on December 09, 2008, 04:14:44 PM

Wow, with the exception of Meridor it seems as though Netayanyahu's efforts to bring the party to the center have failed especially with Feiglin in the top 20. At least we know who is going to be running the party when Bibi retires...

yeah, this is a victory for the right wing within the Likud, and with a list like this I have finally made up my mind that I'm voting for Likud. hopefully Bibi gets replaced as party chairman next election so there is a proper right leadership in the Likud.

Well, it seems like Bibi is not happy as you are with the results....http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3636062,00.html


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on December 10, 2008, 03:51:29 AM
New poll from "Haaretz-dialog":

Likud- 36
Kadima- 27
Labor- 12
Shas- 9
Israel Beitenu- 9
UTJ- 6
Meretz- 6
Hadash- 5
Jewish home-4
Raam-Taal- 4
Balad- 2

This is the first poll I've seen that put the arab parties separately.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 10, 2008, 04:06:25 PM
Excellent. Hadash should make the next Knesset.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on December 11, 2008, 12:58:10 AM
Excellent. Hadash should make the next Knesset.

Why would there be any doubt that they make it?
They always make it.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: ag on December 11, 2008, 08:49:40 PM
Excellent. Hadash should make the next Knesset.

Why would there be any doubt that they make it?
They always make it.

But the last time they've got 5 MKs elected was, I believe, in 1977. They have 3 now, 2 in the previous Knesset. Anybody knows, what's their list this time?


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Yamor on December 11, 2008, 09:17:49 PM
Why do people talk so much about Hadash? They're a very marginal communist party. It just happens that although it's not officially an arab party, most of their support is arab, as well as their policies.

Anyway, interesting rumours going round today that Shas might reinstall Aryeh Deri as party leader (although he still couldn't enter Knesset), as they think it'll bring them quite a lot more votes.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: ag on December 11, 2008, 10:19:53 PM
Why do people talk so much about Hadash? They're a very marginal communist party. It just happens that although it's not officially an arab party, most of their support is arab, as well as their policies.

It's just that they are likable :)


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Lief 🗽 on December 11, 2008, 10:46:17 PM
Does the old people's party still exist?


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on December 11, 2008, 11:56:32 PM
yes, but they were such a joke that their chances to get in are slim to none.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Hash on December 12, 2008, 07:43:04 AM

They split up IIRC but neither will have seats.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Yamor on December 12, 2008, 07:45:51 AM
Feiglin has been pushed down to 36 on the Likud list, meaning he most likely won't get in! Bibi must be very happy...


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on December 12, 2008, 12:03:11 PM

To be more precise, they split up to 4 staying with the pensioners and 3 creating a new party called Justice for the elderly. Following the split there was a period of time when the two sides constantly attacking each other and with the pensioners saying that they won't be in the coalition with the other faction. After that they they rejoined, except for one mk Elhanan Glazer who created a new party called Right Way.

So the two parties that will be running will be GIL with 6 of the 7 mks and The Right Way with Glazer, with both expected to fail to reach the cutoff.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 12, 2008, 05:39:33 PM
Why do people talk so much about Hadash? They're a very marginal communist party. It just happens that although it's not officially an arab party, most of their support is arab, as well as their policies.

Exactly. They're communist, and they support Arabs.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: ag on December 12, 2008, 07:06:41 PM
Why do people talk so much about Hadash? They're a very marginal communist party. It just happens that although it's not officially an arab party, most of their support is arab, as well as their policies.

Exactly. They're communist, and they support Arabs.

One man's support of the Arabs is another man's support of the Jews. Everything is relative here :)

I prefer to say that they differ with the majority of Israelis in their interpretation of the Jewish history :)


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Cylon Candidate on December 12, 2008, 10:32:54 PM
Haven't Israeli-polls been pretty bad lately? They overestimates Kadima by several seats, and Livni by thirty points, if I remember right. 


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on December 13, 2008, 10:52:16 AM
Haven't Israeli-polls been pretty bad lately? They overestimates Kadima by several seats, and Livni by thirty points, if I remember right. 

In Israel you only vote for the party so the polls can't overestimate Livni.

The polls during the last elections showed Kadima with a precipitous decline with the last polls only slightly above the actual results.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Yamor on December 13, 2008, 03:04:38 PM
I think Cylon was refering to the Livni-Mofaz leadership contest, in which the exit polls were a joke.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on December 13, 2008, 04:42:59 PM
Ah yes, of course, but you can't really compare a primary with a few thousand votes and and a countrywide one with millions.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 13, 2008, 04:58:26 PM
Ah yes, of course, but you can't really compare a primary with a few thousand votes and and a countrywide one with millions.

Apart from the fact that it should be easier to poll a primary with a few thousand votes ;D


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on December 13, 2008, 05:15:16 PM
Ah yes, of course, but you can't really compare a primary with a few thousand votes and and a countrywide one with millions.

Apart from the fact that it should be easier to poll a primary with a few thousand votes ;D

you'd think that, but historically the opposite has been true. Pollsters claim this is because primaries have a high percentage of people who lie to pollsters.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 13, 2008, 05:22:35 PM
Ah yes, of course, but you can't really compare a primary with a few thousand votes and and a countrywide one with millions.

Apart from the fact that it should be easier to poll a primary with a few thousand votes ;D

you'd think that, but historically the opposite has been true. Pollsters claim this is because primaries have a high percentage of people who lie to pollsters.

Oh, I know (see also the endless hilarity that is constituency polling in countries with fptp). Which is why it's funny :)


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Hash on December 13, 2008, 05:23:42 PM
Ah yes, of course, but you can't really compare a primary with a few thousand votes and and a countrywide one with millions.

Apart from the fact that it should be easier to poll a primary with a few thousand votes ;D

you'd think that, but historically the opposite has been true. Pollsters claim this is because primaries have a high percentage of people who lie to pollsters.

Oh, I know (see also the endless hilarity that is constituency polling in countries with fptp). Which is why it's funny :)

Jonquiere-Alma polls were hilarious this year ;D. Segma did some hilarious polls this year. They should get an award.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Cylon Candidate on December 13, 2008, 07:41:21 PM
Ah yes, of course, but you can't really compare a primary with a few thousand votes and and a countrywide one with millions.

Apart from the fact that it should be easier to poll a primary with a few thousand votes ;D

you'd think that, but historically the opposite has been true. Pollsters claim this is because primaries have a high percentage of people who lie to pollsters.

Great, now we'll be talking about the Livni Effect in all primaries with women...




Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Yamor on December 14, 2008, 06:10:33 AM
Meretz primaries today, and this is a poll of a party with only about 1000 members I think!


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on December 14, 2008, 08:04:37 PM
When will the primaries be held for the other major parties?


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Yamor on December 14, 2008, 08:29:34 PM
Only Kadima to go, and their primaries are on 17th December.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on December 14, 2008, 09:00:50 PM
Only Kadima to go, and their primaries are on 17th December.

Thanks.  How did the other major primaries go?


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 14, 2008, 11:01:29 PM
What's the voting system used for the primaries?


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Yamor on December 15, 2008, 04:35:25 AM
Well, Labor were first, and they had embarrassing problems with a new electronic system, so they were pushed off a couple of days. The actual results didn't have too many suprises, although ex-leader Amir Peretz came in only at number 10.
Likud also had problems with their electronic voting system, and extended voting hours till one in the morning. The results there were not such a success for Netanyahu who's trying to move the Likud to a more centrist position, however quite a few far-right hardliners got in (although Feiglin, who's the leader of the major far-right faction got demoted from 20th to 36th, which actually is very likely to make the difference whether he gets in or not).

The voting system used is all party members select a certain amount of candidates, and maybe a local candidate etc. The final party list basically reflects this (i.e. most votes at the top, least at the bottom), except that there are reserved spots for women, arabs, druse, candidates from certain areas of the country, olim etc.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 15, 2008, 04:06:13 PM
So the system used is bloc voting?


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Yamor on December 15, 2008, 04:59:12 PM
Basically, however I'm not sure if they all use that. I know Likud do, and I'm almost sure Labor and Kadima also do. Of course they have different rules regarding how many candidates are chosen by each voter, and also regarding 'reserved' places (for women, minorities, local candidates etc.).
Regarding the reserved places there are also differences, with some reserved spots having a separate ballot, and some just promoting a candidate from the general vote to the reserved spot. For example, the reserved places for local candidates in the Likud primaries have a separate ballot, and each party member can only vote for the position reserved for a candidate from his area of the country.
This is actually what caused the confusion with Feiglin who originally received the 20th spot, but was then demoted to 36th. It was because the 20th spot was originally reserved for (I think) a woman, however a woman got higher then that anyway, so it was given to Feiglin. Then, however, it was decided to bump up all the reserved spots (the local candidates), so Feiglin got moved down to the next free spot, which was 36.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on December 16, 2008, 02:50:02 PM
there's apparently a "new" party running, which will be this years Kahanist party. the party will have a chabad rabbi at its head and Bruch Marzel in second place, and will be called "The land of Israel is ours". While the Kahanist party hasn't gotten in lately, with the problems in The Jewish Home the new party should do better in this election.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on December 16, 2008, 03:32:35 PM
new poll from shvakim panorama I saw on http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/32419/support_for_likud_soars_before_israeli_ballot (http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/32419/support_for_likud_soars_before_israeli_ballot):

Likud- 34

Kadima- 20

labor- 14

Shas- 12

Yisrael beitenu- 11

"arabs"- 9

UTJ- 7

Meretz- 5

Jewish Home- 4

Would be great results if Likud could get rid of Bibi and replace him, with a real right winger


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on December 16, 2008, 03:39:20 PM

Wow.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 16, 2008, 04:31:27 PM
Would be great results if Likud could get rid of Bibi and replace him, with a real right winger

Israeli right isn't right enough for you?


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Robespierre's Jaw on December 16, 2008, 04:41:50 PM
Would be great results if Likud could get rid of Bibi and replace him, with a real right winger

Likud is bad enough as it is with Netanyahu as its leader and would only get worse if the likes of Moshe Feiglin ever somehow managed to win the Likud leadership. Which is quite unlikely in my personal opinion.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Yamor on December 16, 2008, 05:52:43 PM
It's more then quite unlikely, it's virtually impossible. No chance it'll ever happen.
Anyway, I find that poll very suprising, and I'm not putting much by it.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Yamor on December 16, 2008, 06:15:49 PM
Rumours are that the Degel Hatorah faction of UTJ may run on a joint list with Shas. That'll mean their combined list would almost definitely be the 3rd biggest party, as well as leaving it touch and go as to whether the Agudas Yisroel faction will make the Knesset at all. Haredi politics are a joke!


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Yamor on December 17, 2008, 04:36:07 AM
Well, today are the Kadima primaries.
They've kept their original decision to use the new computerised system (they were considering reverting back after the problems Likud and Labor had). So far everything seems to be going smoothly.
Regarding what'll happen, no major suprises expected here, with most likely just a slight shuffling of the list from the last elections (which was actually decided by Sharon and not through primaries). Kadima didn't go out bringing in any 'big names' like Likud did, so the potential for current MK's to lose ground is much smaller.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on December 17, 2008, 02:28:04 PM
Would be great results if Likud could get rid of Bibi and replace him, with a real right winger

Israeli right isn't right enough for you?

When I say right, I mean it in the israeli sense, not in the international one. in the US I would be left leaning and I would probably have voted for Obama. My political matrix score would indicate that I'm not really right wing.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on December 17, 2008, 02:31:24 PM
Would be great results if Likud could get rid of Bibi and replace him, with a real right winger

Likud is bad enough as it is with Netanyahu as its leader and would only get worse if the likes of Moshe Feiglin ever somehow managed to win the Likud leadership. Which is quite unlikely in my personal opinion.

I don't mean Feiglin, there are plenty of things we disagree on. I meant someone more like Benny Begin


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: ag on December 17, 2008, 04:43:15 PM
Would be great results if Likud could get rid of Bibi and replace him, with a real right winger

Likud is bad enough as it is with Netanyahu as its leader and would only get worse if the likes of Moshe Feiglin ever somehow managed to win the Likud leadership. Which is quite unlikely in my personal opinion.

I don't mean Feiglin, there are plenty of things we disagree on. I meant someone more like Benny Begin

You mean someone just a little to the right of such well-known left-wingers as Jean-Marie Le Pen and David Duke :)


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 17, 2008, 05:24:25 PM
Would be great results if Likud could get rid of Bibi and replace him, with a real right winger

Israeli right isn't right enough for you?

When I say right, I mean it in the israeli sense, not in the international one. in the US I would be left leaning and I would probably have voted for Obama. My political matrix score would indicate that I'm not really right wing.

I actually prefer the American right.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: ag on December 18, 2008, 01:22:36 PM
Primaries seem to help Kadima

A poll from Maagar Mohot

Likud 29
Kadima 25
Shas 12
Yisrael Beteinu 12
Labor 10
Meretz 8
Yahadut Hatorah 6
Jewish Home (NU+NRP) 4
Green 4
Gil 1
"Arab Parties" 9

A fully rightwing gov't would need all the religious parties: Likud+Shas+YB+YH+JH=63. A centrist "grand coalition" of Likud+Kadima+Labor would be possible as well (64 seats).  Likud+Kadima+Shas is another possibility (66 seats). Would Kadima be willing to go w/ Yisrael Beteinu? Hard to see the former laborites in it agreeing, but anything is possible, of course.



Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Yamor on December 18, 2008, 01:58:01 PM
Two splits were approved by the Knesset House Committee. UTJ (Yahadut Hatorah) separated into Agudat Israel and Degel Hatorah, and Meimad left Labor to run on a list with the greens. Hatikva's split from NU-NRP is expected to be approved as well.
I actually don't think the official splitting of UTJ actually means anything - IIRC, they always split at the end of Knesset sessions to gain from party funding laws. That's not to say they will definitely run together, in fact it looks more likely they won't, but this official splitting doesn't mean anything, I think.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on December 18, 2008, 03:16:45 PM
Would Kadima be willing to go w/ Yisrael Beteinu? Hard to see the former laborites in it agreeing, but anything is possible, of course.



Considering Kadima had no problem until now with being in a coalition with YB I don't see why that would be a problem.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on December 18, 2008, 03:23:27 PM
Meimad left Labor to run on a list with the greens.


There are actually two green parties: "The green party", and "The green movement", with Meimad joining the latter.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: ag on December 18, 2008, 03:37:02 PM
Would Kadima be willing to go w/ Yisrael Beteinu? Hard to see the former laborites in it agreeing, but anything is possible, of course.



Considering Kadima had no problem until now with being in a coalition with YB I don't see why that would be a problem.

There is a difference between a coalition w/ Labor and YB, in which Kadima is the senior partner, and a coalition w/ YB and Likud, headed by Likud. Likud-Kadima-YB government would be far to the right of the natural leanings of a lot of the ex-labor people. At the very least, Kadima should be expected to try to make it a Likud-Kadima-YB-Labor.  Though, of course, this is Israel - anything unnatural is possible there.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on December 20, 2008, 09:22:17 AM
If labor and YB, and Shinui and NRP can be in the same coalition, then anyone can.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: ag on December 20, 2008, 11:21:06 AM
If labor and YB, and Shinui and NRP can be in the same coalition, then anyone can.

Hadash and YB?




Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on December 20, 2008, 11:51:29 AM
If labor and YB, and Shinui and NRP can be in the same coalition, then anyone can.

Hadash and YB?




Except for majority arab parties, who don't enter any coalitions.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: ag on December 20, 2008, 07:04:36 PM
Meretz, YB, NRP, Shas (without Likud, Kadima or Labor)?

BTW, this, actually, may become interesting. The Arab proportion of the potential electorate, if I am not mistaken, is growing, while most non-Arab parties (other then Hadash :))) ) are not getting any more attractive to them. What happens, if Arab parties + Hadash start getting consistently, say, 15 to 20 seats? It would make it pretty hard to form a minimally cohesive government just w/ Zionist parties. Furthermore, if the leftist parties plus Hadash could ever (numerically) form a government, it would be very tempting to do this (especially, if Hadash does break out a bit from the Arab ghetto - Chenin's success in TA seems to hint at such a possibility, however, small).


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on December 20, 2008, 08:52:02 PM
Meretz, YB, NRP, Shas (without Likud, Kadima or Labor)?

BTW, this, actually, may become interesting. The Arab proportion of the potential electorate, if I am not mistaken, is growing, while most non-Arab parties (other then Hadash :))) ) are not getting any more attractive to them. What happens, if Arab parties + Hadash start getting consistently, say, 15 to 20 seats? It would make it pretty hard to form a minimally cohesive government just w/ Zionist parties. Furthermore, if the leftist parties plus Hadash could ever (numerically) form a government, it would be very tempting to do this (especially, if Hadash does break out a bit from the Arab ghetto - Chenin's success in TA seems to hint at such a possibility, however, small).

Define minimally cohesive, remember that this is a country where Labor and Likud have often been in the same coalition. And labor is much more likely to invite Likud in their coalition than the arab parties. Btw if the arabs voted in the election at the same rate as Jews and voted 100% for arab parties they would already get more than 15 mandates. As for Chenin, he tried to hide his affiliation during those elections, and the number two in the list he ran on is a known Likud supporter (who now, because Chenin went back to the Knesset rather than serve in the council, is the number 1 in the party).


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: ag on December 21, 2008, 02:59:33 AM
Likud and Labor together is, actually, not at all unnatural - they are both in the center of Israeli political space (now joined there by Kadima). The problem is, what happens if Likud+Labor+Kadima are still nowhere near to forming the gov't and it has to be formed including multiple parties from the far ends of the political spectrum. Of course, it can be done: but the larger the proportion of the "Arabs" in the Knesset, the more it will become the norm, rather than an exception. At some point, somebody would have to get tired that sort of an arrangement :)

Chenin is Chenin - hard to hide :) Hadash will never become a mainstream party in Israeli society, but if (a huge if, of course) it starts to, consistently, gain 6-7 seats, 2-3 of them going to Jewish MKs, it will become a force that would be hard to ignore in some coalition negotiations: it may be easier for the secular parties to satisfy, then some of the religious demands. Chenin's ability to deal w/ a Likudnik only confirms this. Of course, 35% of TA residents would never vote for Hadash even in their nightmares, even if it is no longer a ghetto party - what if 10% do? No matter what, Chenin has shown he is an electoral asset. I just hope they use it.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on December 22, 2008, 05:32:18 AM

According to the polls Likud+Kadima+Labor is already over 60. And even if it falls short you could always add Shas without much trouble. So forming a coalitiion without Arabs shouldn't be much of a problem (and it wouldn't be even with a 15-20 arab party mks).


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: ag on December 22, 2008, 11:53:31 AM

According to the polls Likud+Kadima+Labor is already over 60. And even if it falls short you could always add Shas without much trouble. So forming a coalitiion without Arabs shouldn't be much of a problem (and it wouldn't be even with a 15-20 arab party mks).


I wasn't talking about this election, obviously: I am not an idiot you think I am :) In this election the probability of Arabs + Hadash getting 15 seats is equal to exactly zero.  But demographic trends, you know :) It would be interesting to imagine Israeli politics in which a government routinely has to get 61 out of 100 "Jewish" seats available :)


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: Dan the Roman on December 22, 2008, 11:09:01 PM

According to the polls Likud+Kadima+Labor is already over 60. And even if it falls short you could always add Shas without much trouble. So forming a coalitiion without Arabs shouldn't be much of a problem (and it wouldn't be even with a 15-20 arab party mks).


I wasn't talking about this election, obviously: I am not an idiot you think I am :) In this election the probability of Arabs + Hadash getting 15 seats is equal to exactly zero.  But demographic trends, you know :) It would be interesting to imagine Israeli politics in which a government routinely has to get 61 out of 100 "Jewish" seats available :)

According to the polls Likud+Kadima+Labor is already over 60. And even if it falls short you could always add Shas without much trouble. So forming a coalitiion without Arabs shouldn't be much of a problem (and it wouldn't be even with a 15-20 arab party mks).


I wasn't talking about this election, obviously: I am not an idiot you think I am :) In this election the probability of Arabs + Hadash getting 15 seats is equal to exactly zero.  But demographic trends, you know :) It would be interesting to imagine Israeli politics in which a government routinely has to get 61 out of 100 "Jewish" seats available :)

According to the polls Likud+Kadima+Labor is already over 60. And even if it falls short you could always add Shas without much trouble. So forming a coalitiion without Arabs shouldn't be much of a problem (and it wouldn't be even with a 15-20 arab party mks).


I wasn't talking about this election, obviously: I am not an idiot you think I am :) In this election the probability of Arabs + Hadash getting 15 seats is equal to exactly zero.  But demographic trends, you know :) It would be interesting to imagine Israeli politics in which a government routinely has to get 61 out of 100 "Jewish" seats available :)


You assume Arabs will vote for "Arab" parties. Many Bedouins vote for Likud. Arabs account for around 35% of Labor's vote as well. Arabs are not cohesive. Druze and Bedouins hate Palestinians intensely, so intensely that army units including them can not be used on the West Bank. What you are really asking is whether nationalist Arabs will reach that level, and that is a question that involves questions other than pure demographics, and assumes that identification will remain the same proportionally over the next 30 years which is not clear.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: ag on December 23, 2008, 01:04:10 AM

You assume Arabs will vote for "Arab" parties.

Of course, I don't assume this :) Never-ever, honest :) Of course I am aware that Arabs have always been an important electorate for Labor. That's absolutely unrelated to the point I've been making.

That does not change the fact that a) the share of Arabs in the voting population is bound to grow and b) that the "mainstream" Israeli parties are becoming increasingly unattractive for the average Arab citizen. As for your last claim (about "identification"), that's the gist of the problem. It's not the Arabs' decision to identify or not to identify with the mainstream: they are not given this choice by the society at large. There is no desire on the part of the Jewish mainstream to have them "assimilated". I fully trust that if it were up to the Arab street, assimilation (at least, political) wouldn't be a problem - what I don't believe is that the Jews would let them in. That's why Hadash is important: it's the only non-Arab party that treats them as equals.

The problem is, Arabs are Israel's Jews :) And, of course, some Jews have always been attracted to the Communists :)))


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: danny on December 24, 2008, 01:06:18 PM
Good news for ag, a new directive by the election committee means that polls will now have to include the arab parties separately.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: ag on December 24, 2008, 04:39:36 PM
Good news for ag, a new directive by the election committee means that polls will now have to include the arab parties separately.

My Jewish soul is smiling :)


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Cylon Candidate on December 26, 2008, 12:24:25 PM
New Ma'ariv poll puts Kadima slightly ahead: Kadima 30 seats, Likud 29 seats, Yisrael Beiteinu 13 seats, Labor 11 seats. 

http://jta.org/news/article/2008/12/26/1001827/poll-kadima-takes-lead-over-likud (http://jta.org/news/article/2008/12/26/1001827/poll-kadima-takes-lead-over-likud)


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on December 28, 2008, 11:40:08 PM
I wonder what impact the recent bombings will have on the election?  I would guess it will provide a boost to Likud.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Yamor on December 29, 2008, 01:00:46 PM
There's talk of postponing the elections now. It'll probably depend on how the situation in Gaza develops. As it is most campaigning has been stopped.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: danny on December 30, 2008, 06:33:32 AM
I wonder what impact the recent bombings will have on the election?  I would guess it will provide a boost to Likud.

I haven't seen any polls since the fighting started, but it should help Labor.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Yamor on December 30, 2008, 07:31:09 AM
Yeah, because Barak is defence minister. It should help Livni as well, and explains why Netanyahu wants a unity government.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 31, 2008, 03:42:52 PM
Will this mean a further bleeding of Labour's Arab vote?


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on December 31, 2008, 06:29:44 PM
Will this mean a further bleeding of Labour's Arab vote?

Yeah, I'd guess so.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: dmet41 on December 31, 2008, 06:31:46 PM
I wonder what impact the recent bombings will have on the election?  I would guess it will provide a boost to Likud.

I haven't seen any polls since the fighting started, but it should help Labor.

if they get the rocket attacks to stop, if cant than it would help Likud bigtime, regardless though i'd say Likud's chances of winning are still very good.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 31, 2008, 07:38:01 PM
Will this mean a further bleeding of Labour's Arab vote?

Yeah, I'd guess so.

Excellent, excellent. We'll be seeing a lot more grand coalitions.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Yamor on December 31, 2008, 07:46:08 PM
I think Labor will gain more from having Barak as defence minister now then they'll lose from the Arab vote. Unless, of course, the war turns into a disaster for Israel, like Lebanon a couple of years ago.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 31, 2008, 08:13:08 PM
But those gains will come from the Jewish parties, while the Arab parties will also gain.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Yamor on January 01, 2009, 07:18:05 PM
Poll taken yesterday, and published today by haaretz gives (brackets is from a poll just over a week ago, i.e. before the fighting started):
Likud 32 (+2)
Kadima 26 (+1)
Labor 16 (+5)

So, quite interesting, in that Likud are also gaining, and even slightly more then Kadima. The gains seem to come from Shas and National Home (NRP), who each have lost 3 seats.
Another interesting point is that although Likud's lead has gone up by 1, the total seats won by right-wing+religious parties has gone down from mid-sixties to precisely 60, with a corresponding rise for the left and centre parties. This, however, is not a sign that Israelis are against the fighting. It's just that Labor have got a major boost, since Barak is Defence Minister. In fact, a majority are in support of the fighting continuing, although it's only 52%.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: ag on January 01, 2009, 08:42:23 PM
Poll taken yesterday, and published today by haaretz gives (brackets is from a poll just over a week ago, i.e. before the fighting started):
Likud 32 (+2)
Kadima 26 (+1)
Labor 16 (+5)

Well, as you know, I actually like minor parties here. So, we have the following (compared w/ a week earlier):

Likud 32 (+2)
Kadima 27 (+1)
Labor 16 (+5)
Yisrael Beiteinu 11 (nil)
Shas 9 (-4)
Meretz 7 (-1)
UTJ 5 (nil)
Hadash 4 (+1)
UAL-Taal 4 (+1)
Jewish Home 3 (-3)
Balad 2 (nil)
Gil 0 (-2)

Actually, what this looks like is a collapse of the Jewish religious parties. Between the 3 of them, they are down to 17 predicted seats - 7 less then a week ago. That only 2 of these would go to Likud is notable. Everyting is stable on the left, other then the Labor gains: the one-seat decrease for Meretz is compensated by a seat increase for Hadash. The main secular Zionist parties are all on a roll - patriotic bump. Interesting stability for YB.

An interesting observation: if this were to really happen, a Likud/Kadima coalition could form a government with any other party (even Balad :)))))) ). Given the impossibility of a purely right-wing coalition, this is what I would expect in this case (of course, chances are, as a third party they'd take one of the religious factions: whichever one is cheaper, I guess).

Seems like, all the laborites needed is a little victorious war :(


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Verily on January 08, 2009, 10:53:44 PM
More signs of a war-bump for Labor and Kadima, although this poll suggests it is Kadima, not Labor, who is benefiting the most. From Maariv, changes are based on their 10 December poll.

Kadima: 28 (+7)
Likud: 28 (-7)
Labor: 16 (+1)
Yisrael Beiteinu: 12 (+1)
Shas: 11 (-1)
Meretz: 6 (nc)
UTJ: 5 (-2)
NU-NRP: 4 (nc) (Unseparated here but will be running separately; one or both may fail to make the threshold)
"Arab parties": 10 (nc) (Not separated in the poll despite the recent decision. ???)
Others, incl. Greens and Gil: 0

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/32573/governing_kadima_ties_likud_in_israel/


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: dmet41 on January 09, 2009, 06:47:30 PM
That poll was from a few days ago, if you look at the link (http://www.uzit.co.il/poll2009.html) and see the link (the first is kadima, then labor, then likud) you will see that likud and labor are peeling off seats from kadima, little by little.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Yamor on January 12, 2009, 12:00:43 PM
Today the central election committee voted to disqualify two arab parties from the elections. They won between them 7 seats last elections. This has happened before, in 2003, and the high court overturned the decision. They're expected to overturn it this time too.

Concerning delaying the elections because of the fighting in Gaza, it seems more and more likely they will be delayed. There is just some disagreement as to what sort of majority in knesset will be needed to vote in such a delay - any sort of majority, or a larger majority of 80-40 (I think the question is because a delay will not extend the length of time between elections to more then 4 years, in which case they'd definitely need a 'special' majority, it's just extending the time allowed when a government cannot be formed before elections).


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: ag on January 19, 2009, 07:42:55 PM
Late-war and post-war polls have the right back in the lead.

Dialog - Channel 10 (Jan 18)

Likud 29
Kadima 26
Labor 14
Yisrael Beieteinu 14
Shas 10
"Arabs" 8
Meretz 6
UTJ 5
National Union 4
Jewish Home 2
greens 2

Shvakim (Jan 14)
Likud 28
Kadima 21
Labor 15
Yisrael Beiteinu 15
Shas 10
"Arabs" 10
UTJ 7
Meretz 5
Jewish Home 3
National Union 3
greens 3

Channel 2 (Jan 13)
Likud 33
Kadima 28
Labor 13
Yisrael Beiteinu 13
"Arabs" 10
Shas 8
Meretz 5
UTJ 5
National Union 4
greens 2


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: danny on January 21, 2009, 11:49:21 AM
As expected, the supreme court reinstated Balad (8-1 decision) and Ra'am-Ta'al (9-0).


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Jens on January 21, 2009, 01:10:08 PM
As expected, the supreme court reinstated Balad (9-0 decision) and Ra'am-Ta'al (8-1).
Good thing - the ban was really bad timing (And I oppose bans anyway)


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: ag on January 21, 2009, 02:28:31 PM
As expected, the supreme court reinstated Balad (9-0 decision) and Ra'am-Ta'al (8-1).

Thanks god!


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on January 24, 2009, 09:23:03 PM
As expected, the supreme court reinstated Balad (8-1 decision) and Ra'am-Ta'al (9-0).

Probably a good thing.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Yamor on January 28, 2009, 10:24:31 PM
We're now entering quite an interesting phase in the elections, with parties starting to make agreements among each other to share surplus votes (since Israel uses D'hondt, it's better to be larger, i.e. more chance of an extra seat). So far I've heard only of an agreement between 'The Jewish Home' party and the NU (who last elections ran on a combined list) to be combined for the surplus votes calculations.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Yamor on February 03, 2009, 05:57:24 AM
Elections are in a week today.
The latest Midgal poll says Yisroel Beiteinu gaining at the expense of Likud, but Likud (28) still clear of Kadima (23) by 5 seats. They put Yisroel Beiteinu (18) above Labor (17), and Shas (10) well behind the two of them. Meretz (4) also look like not having done well the last few weeks.
Some analysts claim that Lieberman (Yisroel Beiteinu) will advise Peres to ask Livni (Kadima) to form the government, even if Likud outperform Kadima like the polls suggest. They say this even though Likud are more natural allies of Yisroel Beiteinu because Bibi has said he'd form a government with Shas who refuse to be in a coalition with Yisroel Beiteinu because of their secular views (to legalise civil marriage etc.).


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Verily on February 03, 2009, 12:12:54 PM
Wait... weren't Shas and Yisrael Beiteinu in coalition together with Kadima and Labor for a while before Lieberman left the coalition?


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Hash on February 03, 2009, 07:34:30 PM
Why is Yisrael Beiteinu surging these days?


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Yamor on February 03, 2009, 09:00:26 PM
Shas have been in coalitions with Yisroel Beiteinu before. After all, they have similar views on many subjects outside religion. However, since they are both right-wing, and there is a sector who could vote for either of them, therefore they are battling each other quite strongly, with especially Shas coming out with virulantly anti-Yisroel Beiteinu slogans. Basically, Shas, in an effort to gain support from this sector have made it a major campaign policy to not let Lieberman's plans for civil marriage, and other secular policies, go through.

I don't know if there is any single, simple reason as to why Yisroel Beiteinu are doing so well. Especially since Lieberman is now under investigation by the police. I'd guess the main source for their gain is from the far-right support of Likud.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 04, 2009, 06:43:53 AM
Maybe it's a symphathy vote now that Lieberman is under police investigation.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Hash on February 04, 2009, 07:44:19 AM
Another thing. Why are the Arabs polling at only 8 seats (4 Ta'al, 4 Hadesh, 0 Balad) according to the newest poll (and some other recent older polls)?


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Verily on February 04, 2009, 11:41:22 AM
Another thing. Why are the Arabs polling at only 8 seats (4 Ta'al, 4 Hadesh, 0 Balad) according to the newest poll (and some other recent older polls)?

Because the pollsters suck. They will end up with 9 to 11 seats between them and will all be in the Knesset.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Yamor on February 04, 2009, 12:18:59 PM
Last time Balad got 3 seats, but if they'd got 10,000 less votes they wouldn't have got any, because they wouldn't have crossed the threshold of 2%. That is probably how this poll ended with them getting nothing, since a slightly lower turnout among their supporters and if a small amount move to the other Arab parties, they could end up with nothing.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on February 04, 2009, 03:59:27 PM
What is Lieberman under investigation for?


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Verily on February 04, 2009, 04:16:13 PM
What is Lieberman under investigation for?

Taking bribes.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: ag on February 04, 2009, 10:51:42 PM
Another thing. Why are the Arabs polling at only 8 seats (4 Ta'al, 4 Hadesh, 0 Balad) according to the newest poll (and some other recent older polls)?

This may be why:

http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1061723.html

If this indeed catches on, it would be very bad. Bad short-term (an even screwier Knesset this time), bad long-term (if Arabs decide their citizenship isn't worth much, it would be very dangerous).


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Yamor on February 05, 2009, 11:54:07 AM
Latest poll (Yisrael Hayom):

Likud - 30
Kadima - 24
Yisroel Beiteinu - 17
Labor - 16
Shas - 9
Meretz - 6
UTJ - 5
Hadash - 5
UAL - 3
NU - 3
Bayit Yehudi - 2

That would mean the right would have 66 seats, compared to 54 for the left.

Turnout looks like being quite high, with 58% saying they'll definitely vote, and 34% unsure, compared to a turnout of 62% last time.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on February 05, 2009, 08:08:24 PM
What is the most likely coalition for the next Knesset?  Are there any possible surprises?


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Yamor on February 06, 2009, 12:11:09 AM
It's extremely difficult to predict. It will be very difficult for Likud to make a coalition with only rightist factions, since the ultra-orthodox parties are unlikely to join a government with Yisrael Beiteinu, and excluding either one wouldn't leave you with a majority. Who from outside the right is most likely to join? I'd say Labor are most likely, but you never know.
In the unlikely scenario that Kadima win the elections (or at least get asked by the President to form a government) then they'd almost certainly aim to include Labor, and then reach a majority with the ultra-orthodox parties.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: danny on February 06, 2009, 05:53:59 AM
Considering the fighting between Livni and Shas and Kadimas anti Shas campaign, a Kadima led coalition would probably be Kadima-Labor-Likud-Yisrael Beitenu. A Likud victory will be more complicated with Yisrael Beitenu and Shas almost cetainly and a possibility of Labor, Kadima (or a breakaway faction from within), UTJ, NU and Jewish Home. Bibi will try to avoid an entirely right wing coalition.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: danny on February 06, 2009, 06:08:58 AM
There's a very good interactive map on ynet with the 2003 and 2006 results for every municipality and for neighborhoods within the cities:

http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-3666718,00.html (http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-3666718,00.html)

of course it's only in Hebrew.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Verily on February 06, 2009, 11:59:55 AM
Four recent polls showing tightening as Yisrael Beitenu surges:

Likud: 27
Kadima: 24
YB: 18
Labor: 13
Shas: 10
Arabs: 9
Meretz: 6
UTJ: 5
NU: 3
BY: 2


Likud: 25
Kadima: 23
YB: 19
Labor: 16
Shas: 10
Arabs: 9
Meretz: 6
UTJ: 5
BY: 4
NU: 3


Likud: 27
Kadima: 25
YB: 18
Labor: 14
Shas: 9
Arabs: 8
UTJ: 7
Meretz: 6
BY: 4
NU: 2


Likud: 26
Kadima: 23
YB: 19
Labor: 17
Shas: 10
Arabs: 10
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 5
NU: 3
BY: 3
Gil: 2 (!)


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: danny on February 06, 2009, 07:15:15 PM
With YB surge and Kadima and Likud both weakening, there's an outside chance of YB actually being the largest party (but would not mean Lieberman becoming prime minister).


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on February 07, 2009, 12:29:27 PM
There's a very good interactive map on ynet with the 2003 and 2006 results for every municipality and for neighborhoods within the cities:

http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-3666718,00.html (http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-3666718,00.html)

of course it's only in Hebrew.

What's the colour code, for those of us who don't know the alphabet?


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: danny on February 07, 2009, 09:41:23 PM
Kadima-yellow
Labor-red
Likud-blue
Lieberman-light purple
UTJ-brown
Shas-light brown
Meretz-light green
pensioners-purple
NU NRP-light blue
Greens-green
The Arab parties are hard to explain, so I'll say by position: Balad is second from the bottom on the lefternmost column Raam Taal is to its immediate left and Hadash is just over Raam Taal.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on February 08, 2009, 12:24:22 PM
Awesome, thanks.

I assume the Jerusalem brown is Shas, not UTJ?

Also, if I'm interpreting the shades of green correctly, there's a surprising amount of Meretz municipalities. What are these areas like? The more hippyish kibbutzim?

Interesting that the area around Sderot was strongly Labour. (Maybe it wouldn't be surprising if I knew anything about the area at all other than hearing about rocket attacks in the news, but I don't).


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on February 08, 2009, 12:36:46 PM
Why is YB polling so high all of a sudden?


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 08, 2009, 01:12:51 PM
Interesting that the area around Sderot was strongly Labour. (Maybe it wouldn't be surprising if I knew anything about the area at all other than hearing about rocket attacks in the news, but I don't).

Amir Peretz is from Sderot.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Yamor on February 08, 2009, 03:50:13 PM
Yisrael Beiteinu are a secular right party, and can be seen as an alternative to Likud. (Remember, the whole right has been strengthened as a result of the recent fighting, and people are anxious to vote for parties unwilling to give up land which could threaten Israeli's security.) Also, they are a good choice for secular Israeli's who voted Shas in the past, but are now disillusioned with Shas' religious policies and 'money-grabbing' tactics. That's my guess as to why YB are doing well.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Verily on February 08, 2009, 04:09:18 PM
Yisrael Beiteinu is also benefiting from demographic trends. Most new Jewish immigrants to Israel these days come from the former Soviet Union, which is the direction YB focuses its greatest attention. They have an added bonus in appealing to a constituency which is not really familiar or comfortable with democracy and therefore maybe more inclined to be forgiving of things like taking bribes (or not understanding why it matters).


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 09, 2009, 07:30:57 PM
Looking at the last few polls or so...

Likud is on between 30 and 25 seats.
Kadima is on between 21 and 25 seats.
YB is on between 21 and 16 seats.
Labour is on between 13 and 17 seats.
Shas is on between 9 and 11 seats.
"Arab Parties" are on between 8 and 10 seats.

Just for reference, you know. Anyone know what the margin of error looks like in terms of seats...


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Yamor on February 09, 2009, 07:59:14 PM
It's normally around 2%, which would mean about 2-3 seats. Polls are notoriously poor in Israel though, and coupled with the fact that there were a high percentage of voters who hadn't decided who to vote for as late as the weekend, we could see some suprises. From speaking to people in the street, I have a feeling that Yisrael Beiteinu will do even better then the polls suggest.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: The Mikado on February 09, 2009, 08:05:38 PM
If Yisrael Beiteinu beats out Kadima for second place, what then?  What would Lieberman get in the new Cabinet?  (I'm assuming that Bibi will be the next Prime Minister)


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Yamor on February 10, 2009, 02:54:49 AM
Could be anything except Defence Minister.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 10, 2009, 06:39:09 AM
Polls are notoriously poor in Israel though,

Ah yes. I remember Peres v Bibi in 1996 (one of the first elections anywhere I paid more than a tiny bit of attention to, IIRC).

Quote
we could see some suprises.

I would be stunned if there are no surprises.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 10, 2009, 06:40:26 AM
Turnout at noon was slightly above 2006 levels; which is apparently a surprise.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Hash on February 10, 2009, 07:48:11 AM
What sort of time can we expect results?


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 10, 2009, 09:01:09 AM
What sort of time can we expect results?

Polls close at, IIRC, 10pm, Israeli time (so 8pm GMT).


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Yamor on February 10, 2009, 09:05:26 AM
That's correct. Expect early results a few hours later.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 10, 2009, 09:34:37 AM
From the BBC's election liveblog thingy:

Quote
As for predictions on results, now there are whispers of secret polls in the dark of night. Independent pollster Rafi Smith says it seems there are indications Kadima may have indeed pulled ahead slightly over Likud. So who knows what surprises will emerge when the exit polls are released tonight?


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 10, 2009, 10:20:37 AM
A Likud MK is quoted on the above livebloggy thingy as saying:

Quote
"I am very worried to tell the truth. Paradoxically, people feel on the centre-right that Netanyahu's and Likud's victory is clear and obvious and therefore they can vote for other satellite parties, religious parties, and secular parties. The gap is narrowing."


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 10, 2009, 10:27:04 AM
Haaretz reports that Bibi himself has been bitching along similar lines. Also; Arab turnout low.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: minionofmidas on February 10, 2009, 10:38:15 AM
Damn. So much for that.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 10, 2009, 11:40:50 AM
Projections are that overall turnout may be around 69% or so; not a huge increase on last time, but a noticable one anyway.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Franzl on February 10, 2009, 11:41:34 AM
Looking at the last few polls or so...

Likud is on between 30 and 25 seats.
Kadima is on between 21 and 25 seats.
YB is on between 21 and 16 seats.
Labour is on between 13 and 17 seats.
Shas is on between 9 and 11 seats.
"Arab Parties" are on between 8 and 10 seats.

Just for reference, you know. Anyone know what the margin of error looks like in terms of seats...

I don't really know anything about Israeli political parties....but just by casually looking over the Wikipedia pages, I'd lean towards supporting Kadima. Anybody that knows something about Israel that can confirm or deny that that'd be a good fit for me?


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Yamor on February 10, 2009, 12:23:54 PM
I know Israel, but I don't know you, sorry!


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Verily on February 10, 2009, 12:33:06 PM
Looking at the last few polls or so...

Likud is on between 30 and 25 seats.
Kadima is on between 21 and 25 seats.
YB is on between 21 and 16 seats.
Labour is on between 13 and 17 seats.
Shas is on between 9 and 11 seats.
"Arab Parties" are on between 8 and 10 seats.

Just for reference, you know. Anyone know what the margin of error looks like in terms of seats...

I don't really know anything about Israeli political parties....but just by casually looking over the Wikipedia pages, I'd lean towards supporting Kadima. Anybody that knows something about Israel that can confirm or deny that that'd be a good fit for me?

You would almost certainly be a Kadima supporter. Shinui in 2003, Kadima in 2006 and now.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Verily on February 10, 2009, 02:58:38 PM
Polls close in just three minutes. Exit polls will be released immediately, although of course Israeli exit polls are as unreliable as the pre-election polls. Still, whispers seem to be that Kadima will lead in the exit polls with Likud in a close second and Yisrael Beiteinu's election-day surge failing to materialize.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Daniel Adams on February 10, 2009, 03:01:43 PM
According to Prof. Barry Rubin over at israellycool the exit polls show:

Kadima 29
Likud 27
Yisrael Beiteinu 15
Labor 13
Shas 10
Torah 5
Meretz 4
Hadash 4

Channels 1 and 10 say Kadima 30 Likud 28.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Harry Hayfield on February 10, 2009, 03:06:50 PM
Data from CNN Interational (simulcasting Israel 2) and not elped by a computer that hs slowed down something rotten n the past 24hours and is missing charcaters!

Turnout: 64%

Proected Seast: Lady leader 29 seats Opposition Leader 27 seats Right Winger (Etreme) 15 eats Former PM 13 seats.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 10, 2009, 03:07:27 PM
Channel 1's exit poll is: Kadima 30, Likud 28, Yisrael Beiteinu 14, Labour 13


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: True Democrat on February 10, 2009, 03:12:18 PM
Any numbers for Shas?  Right wing parties?


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Yamor on February 10, 2009, 03:15:42 PM
Shas are being given 9-11.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 10, 2009, 03:18:45 PM
So how hilariously wrong will the exit polls be this time? :P


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: M on February 10, 2009, 03:19:31 PM
 Smith-Ynet poll:

 

    * Kadima 28
    * Likud 26
    * Yisrael Beiteinu 16
    * Labor 14
    * Shas 10
    * United Torah Judaism 6
    * Hadash 5
    * Jewish Home 4
    * United Arab List – Ta'al 4
    * Meretz 4
    * National Union 3

 


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Verily on February 10, 2009, 03:20:56 PM
Coalitions will be tough. If the exit polls are correct, the all-right coalition will need Shas. But they won't work with YB. (And the reverse, of course.)

I'm thinking Kadima-Likud-Labor grand coalition with Livni as PM.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Verily on February 10, 2009, 03:34:05 PM
Composite exit polls:

Kadima: 29-30
Likud: 27-28
Yisrael Beiteinu: 14-15
Labor: 13
Shas: 9-10
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 4-5
Hadash: 4
Jewish Home: 3-4
United Arab List - Ta'al: 2-4
National Union: 3
Balad: 2-3

Any party at 4 or fewer seats in the exit poll could conceivably fail to make the threshold. The margin for winning only two seats is tiny, and parties are likely to win three seats or none.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 10, 2009, 03:35:57 PM
Hilarious how it seems we have a very-close-race for first place and a very-close-race for third.

---

Yeah, Balad in particular look rather vulnerable. How do things look for parties just below that? Any chance of any of them making it? 


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: The Man From G.O.P. on February 10, 2009, 03:36:12 PM
BN says he's the next PM.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Yamor on February 10, 2009, 03:39:32 PM
The question is, even if Kadima win, if it's only one or two seats, and most parties recommend that bibi should try and create a coalition, what will Peres do? If he decides to ask bibi, some analysts say Livni may have a case to go to court, because of the precedent of always asking the largest party to form a coalition.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: The Man From G.O.P. on February 10, 2009, 03:50:02 PM
Why is Labour off the bottom of the charts?


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: The Man From G.O.P. on February 10, 2009, 03:55:48 PM
The BBC Twitterish sort of deal really starting to lean that the right-bloc has the numbers to make a Gov't.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 10, 2009, 04:01:52 PM

How long have you got? :P Though if you read back through the thread, you'll note that it was looking even worse for them a couple of months back...


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 10, 2009, 04:02:30 PM
3% of votes counted. No point really listing the results as they won't be even slightly representative yet...


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Jens on February 10, 2009, 04:05:19 PM
Anywhere I can follow the results?


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Sam Spade on February 10, 2009, 04:07:09 PM
How accurate are the exit polls usually in Israel? 

Better or worse than the US and any particular lean?


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 10, 2009, 04:09:22 PM
Not sure whether they're any better or worse than American ones, but they've always seemed to be pretty bad...

Anywhere I can follow the results?

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1063105.html


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Sam Spade on February 10, 2009, 04:10:39 PM
Not sure whether they're any better or worse than American ones, but they've always seemed to be pretty bad...

lol - thanks for the straight answer...  :)


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Jens on February 10, 2009, 04:12:16 PM
Not sure whether they're any better or worse than American ones, but they've always seemed to be pretty bad...

Anywhere I can follow the results?

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1063105.html
Thanks


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 10, 2009, 04:51:38 PM
Coalition related news: Bibi and Lieberman are reported to have started talking to each other already, while Barak has openly stated that Labour might go into opposition.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Verily on February 10, 2009, 05:00:29 PM
Coalition related news: Bibi and Lieberman are reported to have started talking to each other already, while Barak has openly stated that Labour might go into opposition.

Unless Shas gives in to working with YB, they won't have the seats unless the exit polls are badly wrong. Not even the most optimistic combination of exit polls for the right gives them enough seats without Shas. And Kadima and Livni can easily demand that Livni be PM even if Kadima leads an otherwise right-wing coalition.

No, this will be a grand coalition. Maybe Kadima-Likud-YB, but probably Kadima-Likud-Labor.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Verily on February 10, 2009, 05:07:11 PM
Jump in reporting to 10%; the numbers are starting to look representative of the likely final result.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: M on February 10, 2009, 05:20:39 PM
kadima-likud-yb-meretz could b a poss, if lieberman focuses on civil marriage, easier conversions, and land exchange as part of final negotiations, rather than his absurd loyalty oath.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Dan the Roman on February 10, 2009, 05:25:56 PM
I am suspecting a Kadima-Likud-YB with Livni as Prime Minister, but Likud and YB controlling the key ministries. This gives YB secular partners, Likud power over negotiations and keeps Netanyahu out of the Prime Minister's office. The message tonight seems to be that voters wanted Likud but not Bibi. I think labour needs to go into opposition rather than prop up centrist or center-right governments, and Meretz, while potentially acceptable as outside support, is unlikely to be in an actual government.

The other problem with a leftist government is the Arabs. Such a combination would rest on their toleration, and I doubt any government dependent on Arab support would be acceptable to YB. Maybe the United Arab List, but not the others.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Verily on February 10, 2009, 05:35:27 PM
kadima-likud-yb-meretz could b a poss, if lieberman focuses on civil marriage, easier conversions, and land exchange as part of final negotiations, rather than his absurd loyalty oath.

I don't think Meretz would ever agree to be in a government with YB or Likud. But they wouldn't be necessary for a majority anyway.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 10, 2009, 05:36:12 PM
kadima-likud-yb-meretz could b a poss, if lieberman focuses on civil marriage, easier conversions, and land exchange as part of final negotiations, rather than his absurd loyalty oath.

I don't think Meretz would ever agree to be in a government with YB or Likud. But they wouldn't be necessary for a majority anyway.

...and if they did, it'd be the end of them anyway.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Verily on February 10, 2009, 05:57:24 PM
Jump to 27% reporting. Still pretty much matching the exit polls, maybe slightly better for Shas than they predicted and slightly worse for Labor. But it's not clear what's in and what isn't.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Sam Spade on February 10, 2009, 06:53:35 PM
From Haaretz.  With 52% in

Kadima 29
Likud 28
YB 16
Labor 12
Shas 11
Meretz 4
UTJ 4
National Union 4
Hadash 4
UAL 3
Jewish Home 3

I have no clue what's left to count.  There are military votes, I seem to recall (from what little I remember about Israeli elections).
Balad 2
Jewish Home 3


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Sam Spade on February 10, 2009, 07:34:35 PM
With 80% in, not much changed...

Kadima 29 (23%)
Likud 28 (22%)
YB 16 (12%)
Labor 12 (10%)
Shas 11 (8%)
Meretz 4 (3%)
UTJ 4 (4%)
National Union 4 (3%)
Hadash 4 (3%)
UAL 3 (3%)
Jewish Home 3 (3%)
Balad 2 (2%)


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Hash on February 10, 2009, 07:44:50 PM
Seems like 11 Arab seats, instead of 10 in the last Knesset. Hadash and Ta'al-Ra'am at 4, and Balad at 3. Interesting.

Meretz' result must be quite deceiving for them. 3 seats only.



Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Yamor on February 10, 2009, 08:01:20 PM
With over 90% counted, it's 29-27-15-13-11. Then you have NU, Hadash, UAL, UTJ with 4, and Bayit Yehudi, Balad, Meretz with 3.
Remember, soldiers votes only get counted on Thursday.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Hash on February 10, 2009, 08:02:45 PM
Results in Sderot right now:

Likud 33%
Yisrael Beitenu 23%
Shas 13%
Kadima 12%
National Union 7%
Labor 5%
Jewish Home 2%
UTJ 2%
Meretz 1%


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Yamor on February 10, 2009, 08:51:14 PM
With basically all votes counted (excluding soldiers and diplomats), Kadima have lost one seat, which went to the UAL. That'd mean only one seat difference at the top, and 12 seats for the Arab parties.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Hash on February 10, 2009, 08:52:39 PM
Now 12 Arabs! Hadash 4, UAL 5, Balad 3.



Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Hash on February 10, 2009, 08:53:24 PM
With basically all votes counted (excluding soldiers and diplomats), Kadima have lost one seat, which went to the UAL. That'd mean only one seat difference at the top, and 12 seats for the Arab parties.

Could the seat numbers still change with the final ballots?

Which way does the IDF vote?


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Nhoj on February 10, 2009, 08:55:46 PM
Now 12 Arabs! Hadash 4, UAL 5, Balad 3.


wasn't arab turnout suppose to be lower?


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Hash on February 10, 2009, 09:04:17 PM
Now 12 Arabs! Hadash 4, UAL 5, Balad 3.


wasn't arab turnout suppose to be lower?

Yes, supposedly.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Nhoj on February 10, 2009, 09:17:39 PM
now that i think about it dont a fair amount of arabs vote for labor who seem to be doing pretty poor.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on February 10, 2009, 09:39:23 PM
now that i think about it dont a fair amount of arabs vote for labor who seem to be doing pretty poor.

they have, at least traditionally, though Barak's role as defense minister during the attack on Gaza, as well as his generally disastrous term as prime minister in the late 90s probably turned them off to Labor.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Verily on February 10, 2009, 09:42:30 PM
now that i think about it dont a fair amount of arabs vote for labor who seem to be doing pretty poor.

they have, at least traditionally, though Barak's role as defense minister during the attack on Gaza, as well as his generally disastrous term as prime minister in the late 90s probably turned them off to Labor.

As I recall, Labor's percentage of the Arab vote was close to negligible in 2006, something like 2-3%. Higher than any other Jewish party, of course, but not enough to make any difference in terms of seats either way.

But remember that there will be basically no Arab-party votes from the army. And the Arab parties are now down to 11 seats again.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Ronnie on February 10, 2009, 09:46:19 PM
Holy crap, this is really coming down to the wire.  I don't know who will win...


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on February 11, 2009, 01:26:01 AM
Any chance Gil or Meimad gain enough soldier votes to put them over the 2% quota?  The Harretz site lists them at 1%, but whether that's 1.9% or 0.6% I can't tell.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 11, 2009, 06:30:02 AM
Kadima 28, Likud 27, Yisrael Beitenu 15, Labour 13, Shas 11, UTJ 5, NU 4, Hadash 4, UAL 4, Meretz 3, Balad 3

That's with a 100% counted, apparently (though presumably not including soldiers votes).


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 11, 2009, 06:39:31 AM
Mmmm... some traditional post-election regret from Haaretz methinks...

Quote
...Tens of thousands of left-wing voters who recently decided to vote for Kadima instead of Labor or Meretz will wake up this morning to hear that Tzipi Livni is vigorously courting far-right leader Avigdor Lieberman...


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: The Man From G.O.P. on February 11, 2009, 09:14:23 AM
Am I right in thinking that the combined right totals 64% of the vote?


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: minionofmidas on February 11, 2009, 10:48:38 AM
Am I right in thinking that the combined right totals 64% of the vote?
Who are you counting? The most common definition seems to have the right at 65 of 120 seats, and thus certainly not at 64% of the vote. But that definition a) includes the religious parties b) excludes Kadima. (Whether "left" is the correct description of the Arab parties might be yet another matter for debate.)


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Ronnie on February 11, 2009, 11:12:02 AM
Kadima 28, Likud 27, Yisrael Beitenu 15, Labour 13, Shas 11, UTJ 5, NU 4, Hadash 4, UAL 4, Meretz 3, Balad 3

That's with a 100% counted, apparently (though presumably not including soldiers votes).

It's really irrelevant.  It matters who is able to build a coalition government, of which Netanyahu has the advantage.


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: minionofmidas on February 11, 2009, 11:51:11 AM

You assume Arabs will vote for "Arab" parties. Many Bedouins vote for Likud. Arabs account for around 35% of Labor's vote as well.
(and other, varying claims on the issue by other posters)

The Haaretz thingy Al linked to allows at least some deductions...

80% of Bedouins vote United Arab List. Most of the remainder votes Balad.

Hadash is mostly the party of urban Arabs - it took a majority of the vote in Nazareth (the largest almost exclusively Arab city) - while UAL is stronger in rural parts. Rural (non-Bedouin) parts are also where mainstream parties get their Arab votes from: Parties other than Hadash, Balad and UAL combined took 8% of the vote in Nazareth, 12% in "non-jewish communities" of 20-50k inhabitants, but 19% in those of 10-20k and 28% in those under 10k - including 9% for Labor and 6% for Kadima. Of course, there are some Arabs living outside of "non-jewish communities", but the number seems to be negligible (Arabs in Jerusalem do not appear to vote - I'm not sure whether (m)any of them have Israeli citizenship?)
 
A statistical note on theoretical Arab electoral strength... Arabs are 20% of Israel's population (using the official definition of that, which excludes "temporary foreign workers" - almost 200k of them - includes East Jerusalem, and includes the 270k Israelis in the West Bank. And of course excludes Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. But not in East Jerusalem.)
However, the Arab population is quite young. Using the best figures I could find, Arabs should make up about 14.4% of the voter pool. From what I've seen claimed (but cannot confirm - too varied sources), Arab turnout was about 50% and turnout across the country 65%. Taking those figures at face value gives about 13 seats determined by Arab votes this year... but that may have to be corrected if East Jerusalem Arabs are not citizens. Assuming (for simplicity's sake) that all Arabs in East Jerusalem are non-citizens, and that their age structure is the same as the citizen Arabs', we get 17.3% Arab citizens, 12.3% Arab eligible voters, and 11-12 seats determined by Arab votes.
Take your pick.



Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 11, 2009, 12:02:19 PM
Kadima 28, Likud 27, Yisrael Beitenu 15, Labour 13, Shas 11, UTJ 5, NU 4, Hadash 4, UAL 4, Meretz 3, Balad 3

That's with a 100% counted, apparently (though presumably not including soldiers votes).

It's really irrelevant.  It matters who is able to build a coalition government, of which Netanyahu has the advantage.

I don't think that seat numbers are irrelevant as far as building coalitions goes...


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: M on February 11, 2009, 12:23:42 PM

I've spoken to people in the Jerusalem municipality about this. You have to understand that West Jerusalem never had an Arab minority like Haifa or Acre, so the Jerusalem Arabs are all Palestinians from East Jerusalem. This was an annexed area, and my best understanding is that East Jerusalemites could register for citizenship if they chose to (standing offer), but very, very few do. However, they are allowed to vote in Palestinian elections. Theoretically, at least, an East Jerusalemite Arab could vote in both elections.


You assume Arabs will vote for "Arab" parties. Many Bedouins vote for Likud. Arabs account for around 35% of Labor's vote as well.
(and other, varying claims on the issue by other posters)

The Haaretz thingy Al linked to allows at least some deductions...

80% of Bedouins vote United Arab List. Most of the remainder votes Balad.

Hadash is mostly the party of urban Arabs - it took a majority of the vote in Nazareth (the largest almost exclusively Arab city) - while UAL is stronger in rural parts. Rural (non-Bedouin) parts are also where mainstream parties get their Arab votes from: Parties other than Hadash, Balad and UAL combined took 8% of the vote in Nazareth, 12% in "non-jewish communities" of 20-50k inhabitants, but 19% in those of 10-20k and 28% in those under 10k - including 9% for Labor and 6% for Kadima. Of course, there are some Arabs living outside of "non-jewish communities", but the number seems to be negligible (Arabs in Jerusalem do not appear to vote - I'm not sure whether (m)any of them have Israeli citizenship?)
 
A statistical note on theoretical Arab electoral strength... Arabs are 20% of Israel's population (using the official definition of that, which excludes "temporary foreign workers" - almost 200k of them - includes East Jerusalem, and includes the 270k Israelis in the West Bank. And of course excludes Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. But not in East Jerusalem.)
However, the Arab population is quite young. Using the best figures I could find, Arabs should make up about 14.4% of the voter pool. From what I've seen claimed (but cannot confirm - too varied sources), Arab turnout was about 50% and turnout across the country 65%. Taking those figures at face value gives about 13 seats determined by Arab votes this year... but that may have to be corrected if East Jerusalem Arabs are not citizens. Assuming (for simplicity's sake) that all Arabs in East Jerusalem are non-citizens, and that their age structure is the same as the citizen Arabs', we get 17.3% Arab citizens, 12.3% Arab eligible voters, and 11-12 seats determined by Arab votes.
Take your pick.




Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Verily on February 11, 2009, 01:21:39 PM
Kadima 28, Likud 27, Yisrael Beitenu 15, Labour 13, Shas 11, UTJ 5, NU 4, Hadash 4, UAL 4, Meretz 3, Balad 3

That's with a 100% counted, apparently (though presumably not including soldiers votes).

It's really irrelevant.  It matters who is able to build a coalition government, of which Netanyahu has the advantage.

As I've pointed out multiple times, Netanyahu does not have an advantage.

"The right" has a majority of seats, but internal fractures within "the right" make it much less likely that they will be able to work together than that a grand coalition will be formed. Shas would lose all legitimacy as the primary party of the ultra-Orthodox if they agreed to a coalition with the militantly secular Yisrael Beitenu, a position only reinforced by Shas's declaration before the election that they would never work with Yisrael Beitenu. Similar holds for the smaller ultra-Orthodox parties, but they did not (as far as I am aware) make unconditional statements of refusal to work with Yisrael Beitenu.

So, what about grand coalitions? There are a number of possible combinations: Kadima-Likud-YB, Kadima-Likud-Labor, even Kadima-Likud-Shas. But any such coalition requires Kadima, which as the largest party in the coalition could easily demand the Prime Ministership. Since Likud can't form a government otherwise, they will be forced to accept.

Initially, I thought Kadima-Likud-Labor was more likely; now I'm leaning towards Kadima-Likud-YB. Netanyahu gets to be Foreign Minister, which is really what he wants anyway.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 11, 2009, 01:34:31 PM
Results in some larger cities:

Tel Aviv: Kadima 34%, Likud 19%, Labour 15%, Meretz 8%, Yisrael Beitenu 6%, Shas 6%

Jerusalem: Likud 24%, UTJ 19%, Shas 15%, Kadima 11%, NU 7%, Yisrael Beitenu 6%, Labour 6%

Haifa: Kadima 28%, Likud 20%, Yisrael Beitenu 16%, Labour 13%, Hadash 4%

Be’er Sheva: Likud 28%, Yisrael Beitenu 25%, Kadima 20%, Labour 7%

Ashkelon: Likud 31%, Yisrael Beitenu 27%, Kadima 16%, Shas 11%, Labour 6%


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 11, 2009, 01:47:08 PM
Mmmm... some traditional post-election regret from Haaretz methinks...

Quote
...Tens of thousands of left-wing voters who recently decided to vote for Kadima instead of Labor or Meretz will wake up this morning to hear that Tzipi Livni is vigorously courting far-right leader Avigdor Lieberman...

And now they're calling for Kadima and Labour to merge. I love it when newspapers try to have their cake and eat it.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: agcatter on February 11, 2009, 03:54:02 PM
Netanyahu wants to be Prime Minister.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Hash on February 11, 2009, 04:13:52 PM
Anyone have the 2006 results in the kibbutzim?


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: M on February 11, 2009, 05:15:28 PM
Netanyahu wants to be Prime Minister.

This has to be stated?


Title: Re: Israel 2008
Post by: minionofmidas on February 11, 2009, 05:26:39 PM

I've spoken to people in the Jerusalem municipality about this. You have to understand that West Jerusalem never had an Arab minority like Haifa or Acre, so the Jerusalem Arabs are all Palestinians from East Jerusalem. This was an annexed area, and my best understanding is that East Jerusalemites could register for citizenship if they chose to (standing offer), but very, very few do. However, they are allowed to vote in Palestinian elections. Theoretically, at least, an East Jerusalemite Arab could vote in both elections.
Yes, I figured something along those lines. (Except for the Palestinian elections bit. IIRC They were sort of allowed last time around - at polling stations outside the annexed area - , but not before then. And Hamas won despite not being allowed to campaign in East Jerusalem...
That's what I read somewhere today, anyhow.)


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Hash on February 11, 2009, 07:46:53 PM
There's a very good interactive map on ynet with the 2003 and 2006 results for every municipality and for neighborhoods within the cities:

http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-3666718,00.html (http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-3666718,00.html)

of course it's only in Hebrew.

They posted the 2009 results, but the key has changed. Could somebody with knowledge of Hebrew post us another guide to the colours/names?


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Ronnie on February 12, 2009, 12:56:36 AM
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1233304756005&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Check this article out


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Verily on February 12, 2009, 01:06:03 AM
Interesting. I suppose Livni at Defense with Netanyahu as PM is not all that surprising. But who will be the third member of the coalition if Lieberman is being unreasonable? Labor? Or the religious parties?

(Really, I don't mind the religious parties so much. Aside from Meretz, they tend to be the least militant of the Jewish-community parties.)


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: The Man From G.O.P. on February 12, 2009, 01:28:42 AM
Could everyone be pacified with BN as Prime Minister, Livni at defense, and EB at whatever the "home sec" is in Israel? or would that piss off the right, even Likud too much?


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: M on February 12, 2009, 01:57:49 AM
Netanyahu (Likud) - PM
Livni (Kadima) - Foreign
Mofaz (Kadima) - Defense
Lieberman (YB) - Finance

Shas and other parties may also join or support the coalition from outside.

The priorities of this government would be the Gaza situation; both Netanyahu and Lieberman have said they want to finish the job, i.e. regime change by force.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: danny on February 12, 2009, 02:35:45 PM
Shas acting like their typical self, before the election yhey said voting for Liberman strengthens the devil and the day after the elections they say their willing to sit with them in the same coalition.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: danny on February 12, 2009, 02:39:43 PM
There's a very good interactive map on ynet with the 2003 and 2006 results for every municipality and for neighborhoods within the cities:

http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-3666718,00.html (http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-3666718,00.html)

of course it's only in Hebrew.

They posted the 2009 results, but the key has changed. Could somebody with knowledge of Hebrew post us another guide to the colours/names?

The only change amongst parties that will have representation is that instead of the united NRP-NU,
the NU is third from the top on the left and JH is just under that.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: danny on February 12, 2009, 02:51:17 PM
The military votes were counted today, no change in seats.
Final results:
Kadima: 758,032
Likud 729,054
Yisrael Beitenu: 394,577
Labor: 334,900
Shas: 286,300
United Torah Judaism: 147,954
UAL: 113,954
National Union: 112,570
Hadash: 112,130
Meretz: 99,611
Jewish Home: 96,765
Balad:83,739


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 12, 2009, 03:53:57 PM
Shas acting like their typical self, before the election yhey said voting for Liberman strengthens the devil and the day after the elections they say their willing to sit with them in the same coalition.

lol


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Yamor on February 12, 2009, 06:16:24 PM
I wouldn't criticise Shas just yet. Of course they won't mind sitting with Lieberman if they get him to back down from his policies of civil marriage etc. After all, that was why they were so against him in the campaign. If they don't get him to back down, I don't believe they'll join a coalition with him.
Anothe point to remember is that although Shas are definitely against his policies, if they see that they can't stop it, then it makes perfect sense for them to compromise and get what they can.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: danny on February 13, 2009, 05:32:47 AM
Anyone have the 2006 results in the kibbutzim?

31.1 Kadima
30.6 Labor
This shows the extent of shift of left wing voters to Kadima in order to beat Likud.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: danny on February 14, 2009, 02:44:29 PM
It seems Baraks days as head of Labor are numbered, Amir Peretz has already announced he's challenging for leadership and Barak will probably lose regardless of who challenges (of course, as this is Israel, he will probably be back sometime).


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: M on February 14, 2009, 03:27:53 PM
It seems Baraks days as head of Labor are numbered, Amir Peretz has already announced he's challenging for leadership and Barak will probably lose regardless of who challenges (of course, as this is Israel, he will probably be back sometime).

He may well lose. But not to Peretz.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Yamor on February 15, 2009, 07:27:41 PM
It's going to be interesting next Tuesday, when Olmert ceases to be an MK. It'll be the first time the PM hasn't been one. There are actually legal experts saying he can't even continue to be caretaker PM from then.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Ogre Mage on February 15, 2009, 07:46:31 PM
I find the state of Israeli politics depressing.  What happened to the moderate left?!  With both Israel and Palestine moving toward their most militant political leaders, the prospect of peace is even more remote than before.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Yamor on February 19, 2009, 08:31:12 AM
Looking more certain that Peres will have to ask Bibi to form the government. Lieberman today met with the president, and recommended he ask Bibi to form the government on condition he forms a broad coalition, preferably including all three parties (Kadima, Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu).
Kadima however released a statement that they'd prefer to sit in opposition rather then join a Likud-led government.
In other news, a high-ranked Kadima guy said he cannot see Kadima being in any sort of coalition with Shas.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Yamor on February 20, 2009, 06:42:47 AM
Peres is meeting Bibi in half an hour (2:15 IST) to give him the mandate to form the government.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Harry Hayfield on February 20, 2009, 09:46:55 AM
I don't know why but judging from the BBC coverage, I got the impression that part of the coalition talks might include a rejection of the current electoral system and the adoption of first past the post. Could I ask those more familar what effect that would have had on the recent election?


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: agcatter on February 20, 2009, 10:04:19 AM
Kadima seems to think they have more leverage than they do.   They should join the government.  The rotating PM stuff was never going to fly.

Looks like the days of ignoring Iran are over for at least the present.  Iran might want to tread a little lighter in the near future until the left regains control.  At that point they can resume their drive to destroy Israel.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: ag on February 20, 2009, 12:22:04 PM
Kadima seems to think they have more leverage than they do.   They should join the government.  T

What for? To repeat the marvelous recent success of the German SPD?

What's the purpose of becoming a part of an unstable, controversy-torn grand coalition, dominated by parties all to the right of it, where its influence is limited, but where it has to sign off on numerous decisions that would be unpopular among its voters (all the while w/ Labor sniping on the side: "what did you guys expect when you voted for the Likud-light?"). Mind it, the next couple of years aren't going to be very economically pleasant - being a part of the government is going to be a mixed blessing for many parties worldwide. But, at least, they'd have real power - what is it, other than tsores, that Kadima would get in exchange for being responsible for the management of the disaster?

Kadima's best strategy is to go into the opposition and wait for the religious parties in the gov't to fight each other, Lieberman to be indicted, etc., etc. - never forgetting to show off the righteous anger about the mismanagement of public affairs. If they do that, the might replace Labor permanently as the major center-left party. If they don't, they might be obliterated by Labor at the next elections.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 20, 2009, 01:42:54 PM
What is happening in Israel is terrifying. How could a far-rightist get more votes than historical Labour Party ? We can see that Israelis don't believe in peace anymore : it's for the same reason that Palestinians voted for Hamas. If we want to avoid the worsening of the situation, we need a strong and neutral intervention. And Obama is the one who could do this.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Hash on February 21, 2009, 06:54:13 AM
What is happening in Israel is terrifying. How could a far-rightist get more votes than historical Labour Party ? We can see that Israelis don't believe in peace anymore : it's for the same reason that Palestinians voted for Hamas. If we want to avoid the worsening of the situation, we need a strong and neutral intervention. And Obama is the one who could do this.

I wouldn't exactly call Avoda a dovish party either.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 21, 2009, 12:06:04 PM
That would certainly be better than a fascist like Lieberman.
( personally I would have voted for Meretz )


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Yamor on February 21, 2009, 12:07:21 PM
By the way, Lieberman is nowhere near as far-right as people think. He does for example think that parts of Jerusalem can be given to the Palestinians. His two main right-wing policies are 'land-for-land' instead of 'land-for-peace', and that all Israelis have to swear allegiance to the country. He also wants Israeli Arabs to voluntarily move to the eventual Palestinian state.
He does want peace, and does agree there should be a Palestinian state, unlike how some news organisations make out.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 21, 2009, 03:29:30 PM
Lieberman wants an "ethnically pure" Israel, and amalgamates arabs and terrorists : even Le Pen is not so explicitly far-rightist.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Yamor on February 21, 2009, 05:40:18 PM
Again, all Lieberman wants is to exchange Israeli-Arab areas for West Bank areas which contain Jews. He has never said he only wants Jews in Israel. It just makes sense when creating a two-state solution to have the Arabs in one state, and the Jews in the other.
If you want far-right in Israel, look at the Ichud Leumi and Bayit Yehudi parties. They are real far right wing, even without their religious stance.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 21, 2009, 06:15:06 PM
In his speeches, he uses very hard formulas, as "we had better to bombard all the Ramallah places where Palestinian authority does business", "to take [palestinian prisoners] to the Dead Sea and throw them away here", "to treat Gaza as Chechnya", or "I don't say that all muslims are terrorists, but that all terrorists are muslims !". ( personal traductions to the french, Marianne #617, p 50-51 )
Are there words of a moderate ?


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on February 21, 2009, 06:18:36 PM
I don't think Yamor is calling Lieberman a moderate, just saying that he is more moderate than people make him out to be.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 21, 2009, 06:20:45 PM
I hope so.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Yamor on February 21, 2009, 06:24:43 PM
Correct. He is definitely further right then Likud, but people have to remember he too wants peace talks to continue, and is willing to give up land (unlike the Zionist religious parties). In fact, on the status of Jerusalem, he is more open then some of the mainstream parties.
Some of the media make out he refuses to recognize the PA, is unwilling to talk, and unwilling to concede land. That's complete rubbish.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 22, 2009, 05:32:15 AM
You have right. But anyway, his political views are close to racism against arabs. He wants peace only to get Israel free of Palestinians. And that is at least as dangerous as the religious right.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: ilikeverin on March 24, 2009, 12:07:08 PM
So, erm, Labour has been asked to join the government, and Barak said yes.  But large parts of the party are saying no.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: ag on March 24, 2009, 01:33:16 PM
So, erm, Labour has been asked to join the government, and Barak said yes.  But large parts of the party are saying no.

The Labor Central Committee voted in favor of joining. 7 out of 13 Labor MKsare against - and, at least 5 have said they'd vote against the gov't whatever the decision of the Central Committee. We might be watching the Labor implosion.



Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 24, 2009, 01:35:07 PM
So, erm, Labour has been asked to join the government, and Barak said yes.  But large parts of the party are saying no.

Just disgusting...


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: ag on March 24, 2009, 07:09:45 PM
Another funny thing is: given all the ministries now committed to various coalition agreements, there are only 5 or 6, mostly minor (except for Finance), portfolios left for Likud. It seems, if this circus does go through, half the Likud cabinet members will be without portfolio (or else, departments will be partitioned).  Likudniks are seething, laborites are dreadfully split: it seems, Netaniyahu is managing a national reconciliation of sorts: a lot of people hate what he is doing. And that is even before they form the gov't.

Anyway, 5 cabinet positions for the 6 Knesset votes Barak can deliver... This is quite generous :)


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: ilikeverin on March 24, 2009, 10:20:31 PM
My goodness.  I wonder whether, through the twisted rules of logic that seem to be applying here, Kadima could benefit from this all.  They seem to be the only ones not joining the Cabinet-'o-Ridiculousness, in any case.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: ag on March 24, 2009, 10:35:04 PM
Well, actually, they aren't the only ones out :)

So far, the gov't is assured of the following votes: Likud 27, YB 15, Shas 11, Labor (Barak) 6 - the other 7 Laborites are against the coalition, though some might be persuaded (though 5 of these have said they'd vote against it no matter what). Together that makes it 59 reliable votes - they need 61.  There are 3 more right-wing parties available, but United Torah Judaism (5 seats) apparently refuses to seat in the gov't w/ the secular YB (they don't so much object to YB on principle, but YB managed to get points into the program unacceptable to UTJ). This, by the way, migt explain why Netaniyahu was going so far to get the Laborites: without UTJ, the right wing has 60 seats - one short of what they need. That leaves the National Union (4 seats) and the Jewish Home (3 seat), anyone of which would get the coalition to the majority (if I were Netaniyahu I wouldn't risk going for the vote without the ultras, since the behavior of 7 out of 13 Laborites is, at least, unpredictable).

Quite a coalition. Barak and Ben-Elieser are getting themselves into a very interesting company. 


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: True Democrat on March 24, 2009, 10:46:34 PM
Barak's ego needs to be kept in check.  It screwed over the Syria negotiations in West Virginia and now he's abandoning any principles just to have what little power he can get his hands on.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Verily on March 24, 2009, 10:48:17 PM
Well, the survival of Meretz is ensured for the next election.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: ag on March 24, 2009, 11:03:45 PM
So,this is what Barak got. He is staying on as the Defense Minister, Isaac Herzog is staying the Social Affairs Minister, Shalom Simhon is continuing as the Agriculture minister, Fuad Ben-Elieser will be appointed Industry, Trade and Labor Minister: 4 major positions at the top of major departments. In addition, Matan Vilnai is going to be the Deputy Defense Minister.  They are also promised another deputy minister job, and a mnister w/out portfolio.

So far 7 Laborites have accepted the decision to join the gov't (Orit Noked is the other Barak ally, and Daniel Ben-Simon, though originally opposed, has said that he will accept the Central Committee decision). So 7 jobs for 7 people - neat deal.  YB people seem puzzled: they have 15 seats in Knesset and as many seats in the cabinet as Labor. They might be reconciled though by the thought that Laborites will sanctify Lieberman as the FM. Likudniks are fuming: they have 27 seats, and will control barely more departments then the Laborites (only Finance among the important ones).

6 people have said they will stay in the Labor party - but in opposition. Labor, as it currently exists, might be gone - they are very likely to split. The labor MKs against the coalition are, if I am not mistaken, Eitan Cabel (party Sec. Gen.), Ofir Pines-Paz, Shelly Yahimovich, Yuli Tamir, Amir Peretz and Avishai Braverman. Without them the gov't needs another coalition partner - they are negotiating w/ NU.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: ag on March 24, 2009, 11:05:13 PM
Well, the survival of Meretz is ensured for the next election.

Their leaders are calling on dissident Laborites to join. Actually, makes a lot of sense: 3 Meretzers + 6 dissident Laborites would make a bigger faction then the official Labor.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: danny on March 25, 2009, 10:33:05 PM

Likud have signed with Jewish Home, and Hershkovitz will become the minister of science.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: ag on March 26, 2009, 11:33:43 AM

Likud have signed with Jewish Home, and Hershkovitz will become the minister of science.


Yep. And what is Likud getting? Ministry for Electronic Cow Barn Construction in Southeastern Negev?


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: danny on March 26, 2009, 04:31:05 PM
And here's how the ministries will be distributed based on current agreements that could change:
Labor:
defence (barak)
welfare (Herzog)
industry and commerce
agriculture (Simhon)
without portfolio

YB:
foreign (Lieberman)
internal security (Aharonovich)
infrastructure (Landau)
tourism (Miszhenkov)
immigration (Landver)

Shas:
interior (Yishai)
housing and construction (Atias)
religion (Margi)
without portfolio (cohen)

JH:
science (Hershkovitz)

which leaves Likud with:
education (sa'ar)
finance
transport
communication
environmental protection
health
development of the Negev and Galilee
pensioners
diaspora, society and the fight against antisemitism (Edelstein)
Strategic affairs (a classic example of a completely meaningless ministry created purely to make someone a minister).
minister for connecting between the government and the knesset (aka the minister for chair warming).



Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 26, 2009, 04:32:48 PM
lol!


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: ag on March 27, 2009, 12:26:20 AM
They should split Galilee and Negev - that's two departments already! And diaspora, society and fight against antisemitism can surely be made into three departments! Hey, I would think 2 people could share the heavy burden of the fight against antisemitism alone - that's an eternal job, anyways!

I remember once passing a sign in Moscow which said:

Russian Soviet Federated Sociallist Republic (it was a long time ago)
The Council of Ministers of the RSFSR
Ministry for Construction in Distant Parts of Northern European Russia (or something like that)

I think the Israelis could learn from the old mother Russia, the country that once had separate ministries for Light Manufacturing, for Heavy Manufacturing and for Intermediate Manufacturing (considering that the latter was just a Newspeak for the Ministry for Nuclear Mischief, this would be tripply appropriate - my Ministry for Electronic Cow Barn Construction in Southeastern Negev would be even more descriptive, methinks).


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: ag on March 27, 2009, 12:39:38 AM
Yeah, thinking of it, Likud (sans Netaniyahu) would have gotten more in a Kadima-led cabinet.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Hash on March 27, 2009, 06:41:46 AM
France had a combined Ministry of Work and Labour (the two things are quite different in France), so Israel could split Work and Labour. Or create a Ministry of Free Time, like in the first Mauroy government.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: danny on March 27, 2009, 07:38:54 AM
Don't think that this is the end, if more parties join the coalition and/or people within Likud make too much of a fuss more ministries will have to be created for them.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: danny on March 29, 2009, 12:40:56 PM
Apparently I missed the fact that they're splitting the ministry of science culture and sport into science for Jewish Home and culture and sport for the Likud.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: danny on March 29, 2009, 05:08:09 PM
Two of the Labor "rebels" have now changed their minds will support the coalition:
Ben Simon who will become chairman of the party and Braverman who will be the minister of minorities.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Hash on March 29, 2009, 05:18:38 PM
They need a Minister of Free Time.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: ag on March 30, 2009, 12:37:41 AM
Netaniyahu is planning to keep finance for himself :) This guy has some guts: this is courting rebellion.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: danny on March 30, 2009, 05:19:03 AM
Netaniyahu is planning to keep finance for himself :) This guy has some guts: this is courting rebellion.
I hope so, the guy deserves it.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Thomas216 on March 30, 2009, 08:59:35 AM
Rubi Rivlin (69, Likud) was confirmed today as the new speaker of the Knesset.
This will be his second tenure as the speaker after he served as the 14th speaker during the 16th Knesset (2003-2006).

I love this guy, he’s funny, he has a sense of humor and he's what we call a true "Likudnik", he believes in the Likud platform and follows it.
Though a hardliner Rivlin is well respected by the public all across the board as a decent and humble man.

Here's him singing at Teddy Kollek's 76th birthday, Kollek's the legendary mayor of Jerusalem, Rivlin was a member of the city council and with him singing Uzi Baram, a former Labour MK.
Rivlin's on the left: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bypP2Go8qVU

I'd like to see Bunning and Schumer sing together, bet Schumer has some nice moves


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Meeker on April 01, 2009, 05:24:09 PM
They let Lieberman be Foreign Minister?!?!


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: Verily on April 01, 2009, 05:26:52 PM
They let Lieberman be Foreign Minister?!?!

It could have been worse; he could have been named Defense Minister.

Anyway, this coalition will not survive more than a year. Hopefully it won't do too much damage during that time


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: danny on April 02, 2009, 04:49:52 AM
They let Lieberman be Foreign Minister?!?!

Lieberman's party is the largest coalition partner which meant he had to get one of the big 4 (defence economy and foreign). Bibi wanted the economy under his direct control and Barak in defence which left only the foreign ministry to give Lieberman, a position with a lot of prestige but without much real power.


Title: Re: Israel 2009
Post by: danny on April 02, 2009, 04:56:25 AM
Anyway, this coalition will not survive more than a year. Hopefully it won't do too much damage during that time

If the problem in the coalition is with Labor than Bibi can add the NU and stay with the 65 mk's on the right. If the problem is fighting between Lieberman and the haredim then Bibi is screwed.