Talk Elections

New Poll: Washington Governor by Survey USA on 2008-10-27 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2008/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5320081027019)

Summary: D: 50%, R: 48%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bde668c1-54fa-4303-89aa-7d69ad6e91a0)

Rossi (R) 48%

Gregoire (D) 50%

Undecided 2%

God damn, are there really that many Obama/Rossi voters? Oh well, at least it'll give us an exciting race on election night.

Fixed.

Based on this poll and past ones, Gregoire has a problem with young (Obama) voters.  Among voters age 18-34, Obama overwhelms McCain 59%-39% while Rossi similarly bests Gregoire 58%-41%.  To some degree, both Rossi and Obama have a natural bridge to young people because they are both in their late 40s, while McCain is 72 and Gregoire is 61. I fear, however, that some of the young voters captured by Obama's message of change are not very selectively applying that mantra to our Governor's race.

I'll take it!

Amoung those who already voted:
Gregoire: 53%
Rossi: 46%

(represents 54% of those polled)



I like that well enough, if Republican turnout is depressed as I think it may well be in Washington Gregoire might actually pull this thing out.

I am glad at the end of the day, Washington does not have a two-party system.  Gregoire is a shining star who has more than earned re-election by not being Italian or Republican.

Further evidence of Gregoire's problem with young voters -- the student newspapers at the University of Washington (The Daily) and Washington State University (The Daily Evergreen) endorsed Rossi.  Perhaps Gregoire should have spent more time talking about how she has increased the number of slots at our public universities and funded more financial aid and improvements to college buildings.

http://dailyuw.com/2008/10/29/daily-endorses-dino-rossi/ (http://dailyuw.com/2008/10/29/daily-endorses-dino-rossi/)

http://www.dailyevergreen.com/story/26756 (http://www.dailyevergreen.com/story/26756)

But I also see notable positive signs for Gregoire in the Survey USA poll.  She has pulled even with Rossi among men (49%-49%) while retaining her lead among women (52%-47%).  She dominates among seniors in Hillary-like fashion (57%-42%). 

There are two factors which I consider the most significant.  The first is that as CultureKing mentioned, Gregoire leads among those who already voted 53%-46% (though this is tempered by the fact that Rossi leads 50%-47% among those who have not yet voted).  The second is that Survey USA agrees with the most recent Rasmussen Poll showing Gregoire reaching 50% support.  When I saw the Rasmussen poll I speculated that in spite of all the millions of dollars of negative advertising from the RGA and BIAW, Gregoire might be developing some teflon.  I now think that teflon is real.

This race is still a tossup, of course.  But for Gregoire supporters, there is reason to put a pinky on the scale of optimism.

lol, UW's paper is even against I-1000. I think it's safe to say that the Daily editorial board isn't a very good representation of their student body.