Talk Elections

A trip down memory lane seems warranted to Brad Coker...

http://hamptonroads.com/2008/11/down-wire-va-still-too-close-call-poll-shows

Phew

Mason Dixon has been consistently pro McCain in VA, though.

they don't push leaners at all, do they?

No. 

Quoted from a different article about this poll:

“It will be interesting to see if he can close the deal with the larger-than-normal bloc of ‘undecided’ voters - of whom 93 percent are white and 75 percent do not live in Northern Virginia,” Coker said.

With numbers like that, I expect McCain to take about 70% of the undecideds, thus probably giving him the state.

Nope and the smart thing in this election, imho, is not to do so.  This comes from someone who still thinks they'll break evenly or so, but remembers history too well.

last Virginia Mason-Dixon poll on oct20-21:
Obama: 46
Mccain:  44

I say, its pretty stable.. thus good news for obama

Tuesday has the potential to be all over the place.

I'll take it under the circumstances.  It's within the margin of error and Obama is only at 47%, and this is the home of the Wilder effect.

Problem is, even if he holds VA, it won't matter if CO is lost (which I think it is).  McCain still needs PA, with or without VA.

You had to remind me of Doug Wilder.





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Mason-Dixon absolutely nailed Virginia in 2006 and was the most accurate pollster in the state in 2004.

I hope my candidate wins due to racism!

Alright! Color Virginia blue

The Bradley/Wilder effect is not really about racism.  It's about being unwilling to publicly say you're going to vote for the white candidate for fear of being thought of as a racist.  Some folks wouldn't have voted for a liberal Democrat anyway.

It's really not definitionally about either.

I garbled that one good.  - It's about being unwilling to publicly say you're going to vote for the white candidate for fear of being thought of as a racist.  You tell pollsters you're going to vote for the black candidate because it's the politically correct answer.

Right.  The racism can be real, based on a general stereotype expected from that person, or a mix of the two.  It's just an effect, after all, not a whole cause.

Welcome to the forum!

I think Obama has a fairly stable lead, however I am deeply concerned that he is so dependent on a 60-40+ win in NOVA to carry this state.

Only MD has consistently shown VA close... either they are right or everybody else is.

I think this could end up being the final margin of victory for Obama in Virginia.

If this poll is accurate, and white undecideds break 3-1 for McCain and non-white undecideds break 3-1 for Obama going forward, then the final result would be McCain +1.

Fixed.

Oh, you got me good!

Don't be an annoying retard.  This isn't a pissing match.

My prediction:

VIRGINIA PRESIDENT -
50% (D) Obama
47% (R) McCain
  2% Others


The margin has definitely narrowed - but I still think Obama wins.  At least, he'll take it 49%-48%.

You're right; we all should be as mature as you.

You're goddamned right.