Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: ChrisFromNJ on November 03, 2008, 11:08:32 PM



Title: FL: Survey USA: Obama leads
Post by: ChrisFromNJ on November 03, 2008, 11:08:32 PM
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ed8485a2-f519-4a47-be10-1d76de953b29

Obama: 50 (+3)
McCain: 47 (-2)


Title: Re: FL: Survey USA: Obama leads
Post by: Ronnie on November 03, 2008, 11:16:18 PM
I think FL will vote for McCain, since Kerry underperformed polls in '04 by a few points.  It will be very narrow, though.


Title: Re: FL: Survey USA: Obama leads
Post by: Sam Spade on November 03, 2008, 11:24:35 PM
SUSA may be right, but they suck at FL polling (I said this when McCain was ahead in the poll, btw).


Title: Re: FL: Survey USA: Obama leads
Post by: J. J. on November 03, 2008, 11:34:41 PM
The undecideds are 3% here; on Rasmussen they are 1%.  This might be a Bradley Effect state.  That will be something to look for.


Title: Re: FL: Survey USA: Obama leads
Post by: Lunar on November 03, 2008, 11:37:52 PM
()

that will be my favorite part of tomorrow.   That ending.

SUSA is erratic, I give it a bit less to Obama.


Title: Re: FL: Survey USA: Obama leads
Post by: J. J. on November 04, 2008, 12:03:54 AM
()

that will be my favorite part of tomorrow.   That ending.

SUSA is erratic, I give it a bit less to Obama.

No, I'm looking for an actual measurement of it, ex post facto.  We have one state where the polls are around the MOE, FL.  One state where the polls trend slightly to Obama, VA.  A couple of large leads, CA and MA.  And then there is PA.



Title: Re: FL: Survey USA: Obama leads
Post by: Lunar on November 04, 2008, 12:06:57 AM
And pray tell, how will you differentiate the pro-Obama bias from the pro-Black bias?




Title: Re: FL: Survey USA: Obama leads
Post by: RuhanS on November 05, 2008, 01:10:25 PM
wow.. they were spot on at the end!


Title: Re: FL: Survey USA: Obama leads
Post by: J. J. on November 06, 2008, 09:30:32 AM
And pray tell, how will you differentiate the pro-Obama bias from the pro-Black bias?




If there had been a difference, it would be to look at a lot of polls in FL and look at the margins and look at the results in many states.


Title: Re: FL: Survey USA: Obama leads
Post by: War on Want on July 06, 2009, 05:56:47 PM
The undecideds are 3% here; on Rasmussen they are 1%.  This might be a Bradley Effect state.  That will be something to look for.
lol


Title: Re: FL: Survey USA: Obama leads
Post by: Alcon on July 09, 2009, 04:31:45 AM
The undecideds are 3% here; on Rasmussen they are 1%.  This might be a Bradley Effect state.  That will be something to look for.
lol

No, lol:

And pray tell, how will you differentiate the pro-Obama bias from the pro-Black bias?




If there had been a difference, it would be to look at a lot of polls in FL and look at the margins and look at the results in many states.

Although, to be fair, he did look at many states; i.e., the ones that agreed with his thesis.

Edit: Oh, wow this is old.  Let's give him a break, then