Talk Elections

Obama is on track to win Nevada by double digits. This was a state that was a tossup and titled to McCain for much of the election season, until the last month or so. And he's currently running close to WA/OR numbers in the state. What happened?

The economy (housing, construction, growth), stupid.

Obama turned out the voters in the only 2 counties that mattered.

How did he not break 40% in Arkansas is what I'm wondering.

There was absolutely no turnout operation in Arkansas.

Seems to actually be a trend in many of the state and county results. Much easier to scare folks in places where they don't see or hear Obama on TV every day or know a zillion people who volunteer for his campaign.

I think the sheer size and power of Obama's operation helped quell racist and inexperience fears in places where it was put to best effect.

Ahh yes Nevada. I never trusted any of those polls and I was right. This state is just way too quirky and growing too fast for good polls.

     It was pretty obvious that NV & NM were going to go to Obama, though I was astonished by the margin of victory in both of them.

This state is growing too quickly to really know what's going on exactly. That said, I'd point to the Hispanic vote as the key to the big Obama vicotry.

I submit that Washoe County has a stupid face and is not reporting results and may therefore be much less strong for Obama than the current (7% reporting) figures indicate. In which case Obama may not win by more than 10% statewide, if Washoe settles down to a more reasonable 3-5 point Obama lead there when more results come in.

Obama leading by 27% with >80% of precincts reporting.

Just shows how hard Nevada is to poll.

Some of these results don't even seem real.

     I know. VT going 67-31 for Obama? Wow.

Orange County is now at 51-47 for McCain....

How does he still have 47% of the popular vote?

The base of the parties have changed fundamentally.....and Obama wins Washoe by double digits as well. I always thought Obama would win this county but I never could have predicted this.

Washoe finally came in, Obama up "only" by 12 in the end.

It's really amazing to see. Butte County for Obama? Hawaii at 70+? McCain at only 62% in Utah?

In a small state like Nevada it's easy to change margins like that. Also, they were hit hardest by the housing market fall. Not to mention the western Reagan type conservatives weren't motivated to vote for McCain. Also, this is where ACORN did its worst! So basically Obama would've lost this state without those 4 factors. Oh and another thing! Where do you think Prince Harry will be retiring in this state? HAHAHAHA!!!

lololololololol

Someone didn't take their pills this morning.

Obama's victory margin in NV was so large primarily due to the financial crisis, which hit Nevada pretty hard (harder than many other states).

I would think CA was worse.

It was, but I was comparing NV to most other U.S. states. Obviously there were some states that were hit more than Nevada.

He is doing poorly in Nevada now. It is about as purple of a state as they come so I'm sure it's not swaying to either column. However, in the past 2 decades it has moved from being a reliable Republican state.

Kennedy won Nevada in 1960, when he won none of the surrounding states.

Clinton carried it both times as well.

The economy was the main reason he won. The recession did hit CA harder but remember that Nevada has about only two main industries: construction and tourism. Both of these industries were hit hard by the recession. At least CA has a whole range of different industries to fuel the state.

Kennedy and Clinton did win Nevada which proves my point that it's as purple as it gets. It votes for winners except in 1976. By reliable Republican I mean it was overwhelmingly supportive of Reagan and Nixon both times as well as Bush Sr. and Eisenhower. I know that those candidates won by landslides, but the margin of victory was even higher in Nevada for them whereas Clinton won by about a point or so both times. If you want to talk about Kennedy winning by more than his margin of victory in 1960, then I have 2 things for you. Kennedy's margin of victory isn't hard to overcome and 1960 was 50 years ago.

Nevada is as purple as a state can get at a presidential level. It has gone from being on the conservative side of victory margins to the middle.

And Eisenhower was 60 years ago...and Nixon was 40 years ago...and Reagan was 30 years ago...and Bush Sr. was 20 years ago...

Your point is moot.

Well, Bush Jr. won Nevada 10 and 6 years ago.

Yes, but consider how much the republican base has diminished there in the last few decades, it used to be an easy 60%, Bush could barely crack 50%.