Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results => Topic started by: Eraserhead on November 12, 2008, 04:22:25 PM



Title: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Eraserhead on November 12, 2008, 04:22:25 PM
I was thinking about making three maps at some point. One with the white vote in general, one with the white male vote only and one with the white female vote only... unless somebody has done this already.


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Sam Spade on November 12, 2008, 04:27:24 PM
White vote done here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88002.msg1808230#msg1808230

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Predictable.


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Horus on November 12, 2008, 04:31:27 PM
Maryland surprises me a bit. I guess all the whites in Baltimore, Howard and Montgomery counties couldn't balance out all the less populated ones in the west and east.


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Aizen on November 12, 2008, 05:25:17 PM
Yay Colorado (Though it does look out of place)


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: elcorazon on November 12, 2008, 05:33:22 PM
Nevada and New Mexico must've been close. Jersey, too.


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Aizen on November 12, 2008, 05:43:06 PM
Nevada and New Mexico must've been close. Jersey, too.


According to the CNN exit polls


New Mexico McCain won whites 56-42
Nevada McCain won whites 53-45
New Jersey McCain won whites 50-49



Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: elcorazon on November 12, 2008, 05:44:53 PM
what % of the total vote was the white vote in NV and NM.  Obama won both by double digits.


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Aizen on November 12, 2008, 05:51:43 PM
what % of the total vote was the white vote in NV and NM.  Obama won both by double digits.


New Mexico: 50%
Nevada: 69%
Colorado: 81%


NV and NM have a lot more hispanics than CO (Which is why Obama won them by bigger margins) but also more fake whites


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Bono on November 12, 2008, 06:00:44 PM
Fifth of an acre anyone? :P


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on November 12, 2008, 10:08:27 PM
I'm surprised by Louisiana. I was under the impression it actually had white liberal enclaves, like North Carolina.


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Sam Spade on November 12, 2008, 10:39:55 PM
I'm surprised by Louisiana. I was under the impression it actually had white liberal enclaves, like North Carolina.

It has Cajuns, who previous to this, voted Democratic.  They said no to Obama.


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: WillK on November 12, 2008, 11:21:32 PM
Maryland surprises me a bit. I guess all the whites in Baltimore, Howard and Montgomery counties couldn't balance out all the less populated ones in the west and east.

I am going to assume that the white classification is non-Hispanic whites.  In Maryland, that's less than 60% of the population.


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Lunar on November 12, 2008, 11:30:16 PM
I'm surprised by Louisiana. I was under the impression it actually had white liberal enclaves, like North Carolina.

"Liberal enclaves" - haha.  Democratic enclaves do not equal liberal enclaves.  I don't know if Louisianan whites aer substantively different from Arkansan ones...


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 12, 2008, 11:42:00 PM
I'd disagree with that...

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Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: ottermax on November 13, 2008, 01:33:48 AM
It's interesting looking at the South. Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Tennessee really weren't that bad compared to Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Georgia surprises me a bit, but not that much. CA Whites actually voted Democratic this year! And look at that margin in Hawaii... tells you about the weird voting patterns there.


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Ebowed on November 13, 2008, 03:18:00 AM
I'm surprised by Louisiana. I was under the impression it actually had white liberal enclaves, like North Carolina.

It has Cajuns, who previous to this, voted Democratic.  They said no to Obama.

Why was that?  I haven't been able to find any analysis about this (full disclosure: I know nothing about Cajuns or Cajun culture).


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on November 13, 2008, 03:23:59 AM
     I find it amazing that there were actually states where Obama did worse among whites than in OK.


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Gustaf on November 13, 2008, 08:27:56 AM
     I find it amazing that there were actually states where Obama did worse among whites than in OK.

Once you consider the black percentages of those Southern states it isn't that surprising. Alabama and Mississippi would be solid Democrat if whites there voted anywhere near the rest of the country. Oklahoma is much whiter.


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Eraserhead on November 13, 2008, 10:00:14 AM
This took me a hot minute, but here is the White Male Only map (according to CNN's exits):

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Electoral Vote:

McCain 408
Obama 109
Tied 21

Popular Vote:

McCain 57%
Obama 41%
Others 2%

Barack would be screwed in the old days.

White Female Only map coming later...


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 13, 2008, 11:53:18 AM
Barack wouldn't have even been able to vote in the old days. :P


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: minionofmidas on November 13, 2008, 12:26:33 PM
what % of the total vote was the white vote in NV and NM.  Obama won both by double digits.


New Mexico: 50%
So nonwhites Obama by 44? Wow. McCain really got sealclubbed among Hispanics.


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Eraserhead on November 13, 2008, 05:55:27 PM
White Female Only Map

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Electoral Vote:

Obama: 273
McCain: 265

Popular Vote:

McCain: 53%
Obama: 46%
Others: 1%




Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 13, 2008, 05:57:48 PM
Quote
Electoral Vote:

Obama: 273
McCain: 265

Popular Vote:

McCain: 53%
Obama: 46%
Others: 1%
Whoa.


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Eraserhead on November 13, 2008, 06:03:10 PM
Quote
Electoral Vote:

Obama: 273
McCain: 265

Popular Vote:

McCain: 53%
Obama: 46%
Others: 1%
Whoa.

It looks like massive racial voting in Texas and other southern states is enough to give him a comfortable popular vote victory but it doesn't do him much good as far as the EC goes.

Do note that I have taken all of this info from the exit polls though, which even at this point are far from perfect.


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Lunar on November 13, 2008, 09:47:05 PM
Do white male landowners next! ;)


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: nclib on December 13, 2008, 08:01:38 PM
Can someone do the white vote compared to the national average?


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Democratic Hawk on December 14, 2008, 08:41:34 AM
Whites who earn less than $50,000

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Obama 286
McCain 244
Tied 8

Obama 47%
McCain 51%


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Democratic Hawk on December 14, 2008, 09:56:01 AM
Whites who earn more than $50,000

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McCain 362
Obama 176

McCain 56%
Obama 43%


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on December 14, 2008, 04:50:31 PM
Whites who earn less than $50,000

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Obama 286
McCain 244
Tied 8

Obama 47%
McCain 51%


wow, I guess class does play some role in American politics


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Democratic Hawk on December 15, 2008, 08:56:00 AM
College educated whites

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McCain 282
Obama 230
Tied 26

McCain 51%
Obama 47%


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Democratic Hawk on December 15, 2008, 09:05:18 AM
Non-college educated whites

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McCain 411
Obama 127

McCain 58%
Obama 40%


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Dan the Roman on December 15, 2008, 10:03:17 PM
Non-college educated whites

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Kind of shows the increased polarization. Mondale lost overall by that margin and won one state. Obama would have done better than Dukakis did with 6% less of the vote.
McCain 411
Obama 127

McCain 58%
Obama 40%



Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: nclib on January 02, 2009, 08:29:07 PM
Does anyone have the data for non-evangelical whites by state?


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Jacobtm on January 15, 2009, 11:49:41 PM
Whites who earn less than $50,000

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Who the hell makes more than $50k and lives in West Virginia?
Obama 286
McCain 244
Tied 8

Obama 47%
McCain 51%



Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: justfollowingtheelections on January 16, 2009, 12:03:47 AM
Can someone do a map with whites who have finished graduate schools?  Also a map with white women under 30?



Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Alcon on January 16, 2009, 05:30:31 PM
Can someone do a map with whites who have finished graduate schools?  Also a map with white women under 30?

Exit polls don't provide that kind of information, and the sample sizes would render them pretty useless anyway.  Alas.


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: justfollowingtheelections on January 17, 2009, 12:09:38 AM
Can someone do a map with whites who have finished graduate schools?  Also a map with white women under 30?

Exit polls don't provide that kind of information, and the sample sizes would render them pretty useless anyway.  Alas.

lol I know... I was only half serious when I made those suggestions.


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Alcon on January 17, 2009, 12:46:37 AM
Can someone do a map with whites who have finished graduate schools?  Also a map with white women under 30?

Exit polls don't provide that kind of information, and the sample sizes would render them pretty useless anyway.  Alas.

lol I know... I was only half serious when I made those suggestions.

Oh sorry, I think I dropped my sarcasm detector at the DMV, sometime after the third hour waiting


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: pbrower2a on February 08, 2009, 05:33:33 PM
This took me a hot minute, but here is the White Male Only map (according to CNN's exits):

(
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Electoral Vote:

McCain 408
Obama 109
Tied 21

Popular Vote:

McCain 57%
Obama 41%
Others 2%

Barack would be screwed in the old days.

White Female Only map coming later...


In 2008 in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, the Democratic Party was effectively the Black People's party and the Republican Party was effectively the White People's Party. That itself suggests political pathology because it allows politicians in "safe" districts that vote strictly on ethnic lines that so long as they have the right ethnicity they can preserve corrupt political machines for fun and profit as well as certain re-election. One study showed that Mississippi is the most corrupt State in the Union, and that Louisiana isn't far behind.

Look at the case of William "Cold Cash" Jefferson, D-LA. In a safe district he could get re-elected despite having been caught with the proceeds of bribes in his freezer. It took two tries to remove him from office through the electoral process. But that's the US Congress... just imagine how corrupt a county government or a city council can be when ethnic machines, white or black, can't be dislodged because people within that group (and white people and black people are no less guilty at that) won't vote for someone of the other ethnic group at the least as a temporary protest against incompetence or corruption.

Obama would not have won without lots of white people deciding that his ethnicity mattered little. That did not hold in the South -- except in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and to some extent Georgia. 




Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: tmthforu94 on February 18, 2009, 07:14:51 PM
Somewhat bored, so I'm going to do "SUBURBAN VOTING"...Doesn't really go along with the whole "race" topic, but I thought some might want to know anyways

Some of the closest states were New York, Illinois, Ohio, and Pennyslvania.
I looked at 2 sources on some of the closer contests, so determined the winner that way in close states.
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Obama-307
McCain-241


P.S. Just caught this...Nevada is a mistake! It was 60+ Obama.


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Nym90 on February 18, 2009, 09:12:22 PM
I don't see how McCain won the "suburban" vote in PA, unless most of the area of the counties that surround Philadelphia are being classified as urban rather than suburban, while most of the area of the counties surrounding Allegheny are being classified as suburban rather than rural.

Likewise Nevada, unless all of Las Vegas and Reno are considered "urban".


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: nclib on February 18, 2009, 09:55:04 PM
Are these based on exit polls or county results? In any case, shouldn't DC be gray?


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: Alcon on February 18, 2009, 10:46:58 PM
I don't see how McCain won the "suburban" vote in PA, unless most of the area of the counties that surround Philadelphia are being classified as urban rather than suburban, while most of the area of the counties surrounding Allegheny are being classified as suburban rather than rural.

Likewise Nevada, unless all of Las Vegas and Reno are considered "urban".

CNN's exit poll classifications of that kind of thing have always been a little whacky.  Like Alaska was collapsed as entirely Suburban and Rural in '04, not at all Small City/Small Town/whatever.

I think we put way more trust in exit polls than is warranted, even with our skepticism.


Title: Re: Has anyone made an electoral map using just the white vote?
Post by: tmthforu94 on February 19, 2009, 07:21:56 PM
I got my results from CNN, Fox, as well as several other sites. Pennyslvania was tied in most, while two had McCain winning by a point and one had Obama.

I didn't change D.C. My Bad...:(