Talk Elections

Since we learned anything can happen, make a 2012 prediction!

My random guess is:

2012 will be the first election since 1964 where a candidate tops 80% or more in a state, with the exception of Washington DC.

What state? Who knows.

My prediction is that after 4 years of a successful Obama Presidency and our less, errr..... "informed" fellow countrymen see that the world didn't end with Obama's election, there is a MASSIVE swing towards Obama in Appalachia. 

Actually I agree.. texaslefty and I were discussing that if Obama is successful.. Obama will get unimaginable swings in states like WV and AR.

If obama picks Hillary as SoS.. it would be the greatest administration ever, and would be happy to join the "obama cult".

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Obama beats Jindal in hilarious blowout.

If it happened, it would almost certainly be Obama in Hawaii. That said, it won't happen.

Palin is the early front runner for the GOP nomination, but fades fast in the last few months before Iowa, and only ends up winning Alaska. Obama easily beats Romney in the general.

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Sarah Palin, the incumbent Governor of Alaska, who is considered to be the 2012 Republican frontrunner as of November 2008, will not win her parties nomination in 2012. I can picture doing a "Rudy", being perceived as the frontrunner by the national media then faltering come the presidential primaries.

Instead of Governor Palin winning the Republican Nomination in 2012, I am predicting as of November 18, 2008, that former Speaker of the House of Representatives from 1995 to 1999, Newton Leroy Gingrich will win the nomination in 2012, and will select incumbent Governor of Utah, John Huntsman Jr as his running mate. I am also expecting that this comment made on my behalf will be mocked and ridiculed come election day in 2012.

Let me set a hypothetical political climate:  Economy is better, but not fully recovered.  President Obama has had a reasonably event-free term.  His agenda can be labeled as "liberal" but he has been careful to pick certain fights with the Congress, with an eye on re-election.  Bailout-mania has continued, with more federal dollars targeted at industries as well as failing state and municipal governments.  National debt has grown.  Iraq is calm.  Afghanistan is better, looks almost like Iraq circa '08.  Obama has had some missteps regarding foreign affairs, but nothing catastrophic.  Iran and Russia continue to play the same games.  GOP nets a handful of seats in the 2010 elections.     

Romney is the first to announce his candidacy.  Followed by former CO Gov. Bill Owens (surprise entry), some unimportant generic Congressman, then Sen. John Ensign, Sen. John Thune, and former Speaker Newt Gingrich.  There is talk of Sarah Palin entering the race late, similar to Fred Thompson in '08, but she ultimately decides against it.  Pawlenty forms an exploratory committee, but decides to challenge Amy Klobuchar's Senate seat instead.  There is a heavy draft-Jindal movement, but he instead runs for and easily wins re-election as Governor of LA in 2011.  Mike Pence has taken Lugar's Senate seat and declines to run for President. 

Romney wins Iowa, as Thune and Ensign cannot coexist, and New Hampshire.  Everyone drops out early except for Romney and Gingrich.  Romney has run a better campaign than '08, not trying to be someone he's not and it seems to be working.  He and Gingrich trade victories for a while, but Romney overall support is slipping as he still fails to "connect" with voters and seems too wound up.  Gingrich wins the nomination.

There is talk of Obama replacing Biden on the ticket with someone younger.  The two most talked-about names are Sen. Mark Warner and Rep. Chet Edwards.  President Obama has a press conference and says Biden will not be replaced.  Sen. Kay Hagan delivers keynote address at DNC in New Orleans, LA.  Among Gingrich's options are Thune, Ensign, Pence, Jon Huntsman, Mitch Daniels, Rick Perry, and Rep. Paul Ryan.  Fantasy suggestions include retired Gen. David Petraeus, former SecDef Robert Gates, and former Sec. of State Condi Rice.  None of the 3 ever endorse or campaign for anyone.  Romney isn't in the mix but serves as an economic advisor and is rumored to be interested in heading the Treasury Dep't, as he sees that he will never be President.  Jindal pre-empts any VP talk by expressing his disinterest (it's estimated that he wants to run in '16 and wants to avoid the risk of being a losing runningmate).  Gingrich chooses Daniels and the pick is immediately scrutinized as Daniels served in the Bush Administration, and there is an issue of exactly how effective he was as Governor of IN (see JSojourner's comments here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88434.msg1819041#msg1819041 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88434.msg1819041#msg1819041).  Gingrich says Bush-villification worked 4 years ago, but it doesn't work now.  Paul Ryan keynotes RNC in Detroit, MI. 

Gingrich general election campaign is based on government spending, focusing on bailout-mania and programs Obama has pushed through at the behest of Congress.  Obama runs on a "Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?" message.  Majority of Americans agree that they are.  Obama highlights where he has fought the Dem Congress on certain issues.  Both campaigns are competently run.  Obama and Gingrich both give compelling performances in the debates.  Biden eats Daniels in the VP debate.  Warner is Obama's primary surrogate on the news shows.  Jindal is Gingrich's.

Obama wins, but it's close.  Looks somewhat like Bush-Kerry '04.  Jindal viewed as GOP heir-apparent in 2016.  Warner for the Dems.  GOP makes minor gains in Congress, but Dems still control both houses. 

 

Situation like this:

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Which I think will play out like this:

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I've got a better idea....

I predict that any prediction made today is worthless.

I predict that everything in my prediction will happen, because I know more about everything than you.

Best prediction ever.

In 2012, the Democratic Party will win Missouri in the electoral college.

Now I know I will be laughed out of the forum for making that prediction, but.. 

Seems quite possible.

obviously

Good Obama-term with an improving economy:

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Bad Obama-term with a bad economy:

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You think he'll get reelected no matter what?

Of course a lot can happen, but as of now Kerry+IA, NM, CO and NV are too solid.

If you think "a lot can happen", nothing should be solid.  I mean, who would have thought of Carter losing Alabama or Arkansas in 1980?

LOL

Indiana was 60% Bush 4 years ago. You're right, a lot can happen, but I doubt NV, CO and NM will remain that solid. Things change and the GOP won't be in this bad a shape for the rest of history. These solid majorities never last long.

Anyway, with a good term and improving economy, Obama should see this map for releection.

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With a bad term, I wouldn't be surprised to see a massive backlash. He has set expectations so high that he'll get crushed if he fails.

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True, but they usually last more than just four years, up to 12 (or 20 for the Dems during and after the Great Depression).

*Not an actual prediction*- I see this as the best Obama can realistically achieve, given a successful term/crappy opponent/whatever:

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415-123

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Rep 51% obama 47%
there are going to be a lot of people rooting for obama to fail any minor mistake he makes will be magnified ten times over by those people, the obama campaign tried to ignore the issue of race during the campaign it will be impossible to ignore during the his administration the republicans  will make thing's like affirmative action illegal immigration an issue.   riding the the Angy white people wave all the way back  to the white house.   the republicans will be back and worse then ever maybe even worse then bush as scary as that sounds.  hispanics will continue to be hard democratic.

I don't try to hard to be too optimistic when it comes to politics :)

You forgot one. No one expected him to lose Massachusetts.

Right now if I had to put money on what the 2012 result will be, this would probably be it.

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Obama/Biden - 59% - 500EV
Romney/Jindal - 39% - 38EV

Good times!

why not Oklahoma?

I would like to announce a serious prediction. Not a troll prediction, like Oklahoma, which was used solely to get people riled up and get attention.

Texas will vote for Obama's re-election in 2012.

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Random thoughts:

-The economy stabilizes and rebounds, thought not a sharp recovery.  There is a massive explosion in annual deficits and the debt.
-Obama runs a Clintonesque administration, where the goal is to keep approval ratings high at all costs.  He smostly succeeds, and the country is seen as returning to relative peace and prosperity.
-No terrorist attacks occur on the US homeland
-In 2010 the Democrats reach 60 in the Senate, the GOP picks up a few seats in the house
-The GOP's best and brightest decide to pass on 2012 and focus on 2016.  Bobby Jindal, Mike Pence, Paul Ryan, John Thune, etc won't run.
-Romney wins the GOP nomination, defeating Huckabee
-Obama wins a crushing victory in 2012, 450+EV, 12% PV
-GOP continues to lose seats in the House in Senate in 2012, the conventional wisdom is that the party can no longer compete nationally
-Obama/Democrat fatigue begins to set in.  GOP does suprisingly well in the 2014 elections.
-2016 all the best the GOP have decide to run.  Jindal wins the nomination and selects Paul Ryan as his VP.  Hillary Clinton chooses Evan Bayh as her running mate.   In a re-run of the 2008 election, with Jindal representing change and Hillary the status quo, Jindal defeats Clinton 50.25-48.75 and is elected the 45th President of the United States..

-If there is a terrorist attack here during Obama's term(s), this scenario goes out the window and the GOP returns to power.

Obama/Biden vs. Ridge/Pawlenty. With Obama-Biden winning McCain states but Ridge/Pawlenty winning Obama 08 states. Will be a close election because the economy will not be improving any time soon

Hmmm.  I dont see that as a given.  For Bush an attack sent his approval ratings skyrocketing and helped him win reelection. 

I predict that Barack Obama will receive a higher percentage of the popular vote in Arizona than he will in Colorado.

Also, I predict that Sarah Palin will run for, but not win, the Republican Party Nomination, that Bobby Jindal will not run for the nomination, choosing to wait until '16, and that Mike Huckabee will win the Republican Nomination.

Therefore, I predict that Barack Hussein Obama will win more than 400 Electoral College Votes in the United States Presidential Election of 2012.

Even if Obama is extremely successful, the GOP will find some reason to oppose him. He's
'destroying America's values' or 'weakening our defense' or something like that. Have you ever imagined what it must be like to be a Republican voter. My god, the idiotic issues they vote on sometimes.

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Are you serious?  Do you expect him to run unopposed?  Yes, the GOP will find something to oppose him on, just like every opposition party in every democratic election.

The race started out as any other, but first a national report.

Obama is seen as a good president, but has lost the messiah image he had a few years ago, and is about as weak as Woodrow Wilson in 1916. After a recession in 2008, a sharp recession in 2009, and a weak recession in 2010, the US economy is recovering, but not BOOMING, per se. WE are doing better then the rest of the World, with recessions evolving into depressions in Europe, China, and South America. Iraq is a stable democracy in the Middle East, and the last US troops are to leave in 2011. Afganistan is becoming more stable, but Osama has not been found and is likely dead. India and Pakistan would be at war, if not for there economies and Hillary Clinton's almost weekly visits. Clinton and Biden run Foriegn affairs. The FAR-Left is mad at Obama for making deals with the right. The Republicans won 6 seats in congress in 2010, but lost a seat in the Senate, giving the democrats a fillibuster.

The race begins when Sarah Palin announces her candidacy in November 2010.
Mike Rounds makes a surprise entry in January 2011.
Mitt Romney announces his candidacy in February.
Tim Pawlenty announces he will run in February also.
Charlie Crist announces he will run in July.
Gary Johnson decides to run and carry on Ron Paul's revolution.
Newt Gingrich decides he will seek the nomination in September, disrupting the polls, and taking a chunk of Palin's Base.

Huckabee, Jeb Bush, John Thune, Bobby Jindal, and Jon Huntsman Jr decide not to run.

The most sought after endorsement is Senator John McCain.

Iowa is a win for Palin, forcing Pawlenty to drop out.
New Hampshire, which was not really important this year, was a 30 point win for Romney.
South Carolina voted for Gingrich over Crist, forcing the good-looking gay-rumored politician bay to Florida.
Nevada, do to the split conservatives, produces a narrow win for Johnson.

Romney is able to win California and most of the west, but loses the south to Newt Gingrich.

Palin decides to dropout, and endorses no one. 

The Battle goes all the way to the convention, and all major networks read
SHOWDOWN IN SAN ANTONIO.

Meanwhile, at the DNC in Dallas, there is talk of replacing Biden with Mark Warner, who has made a name for himself in the Senate, or Chet Edwards, the new Governor of Texas after a fierce battle between Rick Perry and Kay Bailey Hutchison. But the talk does not generate anything, and Biden is kept, and a 2016 primary looms.

The SHOWDOWN is Over after 3 days of madness. John McCain proposes a compromise candidate, and Mike Pence wins. Pence chooses Huntsman as his running mate.

The election is considered close, but Obama manages to pull of a 4 point win in the popular vote, after all votes are counted, the map looks like this:

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Missouri, but no Ohio? Decent scenario otherwise, but I can't really picture ever nominating a compromise candidate,

More importantly, Missouri, but not Colorado?

lol you people think he'll be successful

Why are you so convinced that he'll be a failure?

Unexperienced, unworkable leftist ideas, his attempting to play the populist/social center when people are backlashing against bush's social populism, his attempt to govern for 12% of the US population and screwing over/ignoring the other 88%, etc.

No, because you supported the other guy. ::)

Obama/Biden vs. Romney/Pawlenty
(Obama with low approval ratings)

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Before the economic crash in October: McCain was consistently winning polls in Ohio, Indiana, Florida, and North Carolina.

I think the only reason Obama really did such a good job there was the convention, and I predict he will lose it narrowly, with it not being called for days.


I see it possible, 2012 seems to be neck and neck to me. and Oho will be won by a republican by at LEAST 1.2 percent.

Obama vs Huckabee
Morning of Election Day:
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Turns out like this:
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:P ;)

Vander Blubb makes some quite good points.  Which is the reason why the only answers as to who will be Pres come 2013 are Pres. Obama, Pres. Palin or Pres. Biden, should something awful happen to O.

South Carolina will be almost as winnable for Obama as Georgia.

Obama % of the vote in McCain states, from highest:

MO: 49.25
MT: 47.17
GA: 46.90
AZ: 44.91
SC: 44.90

At various points throughout the campaign, there were suggestions that Obama might win North Dakota, South Dakota, Alaska (before Palin), West Virginia, and of course, MO, MT, GA and AZ.

While many thought that an Obama win in North Dakota was just Democratic day-dreaming, most would've probably agreed that Obama would win North Dakota long before South Carolina

But the fact is that while Obama and Democrats as a whole dedicated practically no resources to South Carolina, it turned out to be the fifth closest state that they lost. If there had been an important Senate race there, and the Obama campaign had dedicated more money to voter-registration, ads and GOTV, the results in S.C. could easily be brought to approximate those in Georgia.

So if Obama has a chance to win Georgia in '12, then there's no reason that South Carolina couldn't be right behind.

^^^^^ I totally agree with that, although its not just republicans who vote on Idiotic issues. They will find some reason to hate him like affirmative action. remember back in 1990's when the cool thing was to hate Bill Clinton, looking back he looks pretty damm good compared to Bush.   

I kinda half-agree with South Carolina, but I think North Dakota will be easier to get. Sure, Obama did a little better in South Carolina than North Dakota, but there's also what, 10 times more people living in South Carolina? It's easier to sway 20,000 people compared to 200,000. :P

But yeah, Obama did better with the white vote in South Carolina than Kerry and if the black vote comes out again... sure.

Would that include the prediction that I am referencing here?

As a born and bred North Dakotan, I'd have to agree that Obama has a real shot at winning North Dakota in '12, but he would have to put more resources into the state than a Democratic candidate would probably deem worthwhile when chasing only 3 electoral votes.  Obama got one-third of the formula right for winning North Dakota, namely he won Cass and Grand Forks counties, the two biggest university towns.  But his margins here were not large enough to offset losses in the central and western parts of the state and rural areas.  The two other keys to winning NoDak is to win the three other major university cities, Bismarck-Mandan, Dickinson and Minot, all three of which he lost pretty badly this year.  He would also have to replicate on the small North Dakota scale what he successfully did in Indiana, namely push up his numbers by around 10% or so in the rural counties.  In two October polls before the election, North Dakota was statistically tied with about 11% undecided, but Obama pulled resources out of the state when the national polls tightened considerably after the Republican convention, and I think almost all these undecideds broke for McCain at the end, which, given North Dakota's voting history, was no big surprise.  All this considered, Obama lost North Dakota by only 8 points, which, when compared with Bush wins of 28 and 27 points in the last two generals, is a remarkable performance for a Democrat in my home state.  Personally, I'd love to see Obama win NoDak in 2012, but it's just got a paltry number of electoral votes.  South Carolina might be harder to win than North Dakota, but it's also worth more than twice NoDak's electoral votes, so it's worth a bigger investment if it's within reach in 2012.  I don't think Obama will win either state in 2012 though, even though he will win reelection by roughly the same margin as he did this year, maybe giving Indiana and North Carolina to the Republicans but winning Missouri and Arizona in trade.

I predict an Obama victory, but it will be much closer than 2008.

I see it as 50/50. Grey are potential swings(for Obama if he does well(SO NOT HAPPENING LOL XD) or for the GOP(much more likely).

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Wow. That is a completely awful prediction. Indiana safe Republican? Obama won it this year, did he not? Montana and ND, too? Those states were decided by <3%. Arkansas voted 27% Republican above the national average, so that's safe Republican. and I don't get ME02. McCain wasn't even within ten points there.

This assumes Obama has a decent first term; not great, but not terrible:
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No, his ideas are standard Center-Right Clintonism.


Nobody cares about this.  We're in a depression.


You mean the 12% that a black?  You're nuts.

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The upside of a bad Obama administration would be the end of independent black political participation. They singlehandedly voted in prop 8 and constantly vote to castrate law enforcement in the inner cities.

Hardly preposterous. Had it not been for Ralph Nader siphoning away some left-leaning votes in Missouri and Bob Barr siphoning off some right-leaning votes in North Carolina, then the two closest states for either candidate would have gone the opposite way.

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Strange! I see little reason for any state that went to Obama by a 10% or higher margin to go for a generic GOP candidate unless Obama fails catastrophically. No state that McCain won by less than 12%  isn't up for grabs, and none that went for Obama by 7% or more reverts to the GOP unless something strange happens.

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Dubya won Texas by 23 points; McCain won it by 11.  That is a huge drop-off, even if the loss of the Favorite Son effect accounts for much. McCain is the strongest GOP candidate for the President since Reagan, and he won't be running in 2012. It's easy to say that because Texas is a Southern State it should have a culture amenable to the GOP. But Texas isn't a core Southern State anymore. Graft Oklahoma (one of the most right-wing States in the Union) onto Florida and you have Texas. 

Texas and Florida? Texas has a fast-growing Hispanic population, but the Texas Hispanics are Mexican-Americans who are more politically-liberal than Cuban-Americans.  Texas has proportionally more blacks than does Florida, and they aren't leaving or going Republican anytime soon. Like Florida, Texas has lots of relocated Yankees (and will likely get more) who
aren't likely to vote Republican. Momentum will not be enough to make Texas a 50/50 state... but demographic change can do it in Texas.

Should Florida go for Obama by 8% in 2012, Texas goes for Obama in 2012.

I have moved Arkansas into the "safe Republican" zone. Any state that voted for the other Party by 20% must be considered a reasonably safe hold. Huckabee wins Arkansas easily, and Obama wins Arkansas only if he picks up a raft of similar states in politics (TN, KY, WV, MS, AL, arguably LA). I won't move it out of the Safe Republican zone until polls of 2012 suggest otherwise.

Operating with the following assumptions:

1. The stock market reaches bottom in late 2009, and the economy begins to recover in early 2010.

2. The stimulus package works for the most part with minimal waste, helping to generate economic growth.

3. Obama and the Democratic Congress create a universal health care system along the lines of Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden's proposal (http://www.standtallforamerica.com/content/health_care_reform) in order to attract broad bipartisan support.  Single-Payer is apparently jettisoned early on in the process. 

4. A Cap-and-Trade system is created, generating enough revenue that helps to reduce the budget deficit by roughly half by the time Obama runs for re-election.

5. The Employee Free Choice Act is passed narrowly by Congress in early 2010, barely cresting the 60-vote margin needed to overcome a Senate filibuster.

6. Justice John Paul Stevens dies, and President Obama nominates (and the Senate confirms) a dark-horse candidate who later turns out to be the conservative version of David Souter.  In addition to strengthening the D.C. vs. Heller decision (by imposing a high standard for any new gun control laws) and ensuring that gay marriage would never be legalized by the Supreme Court for at least a generation, he provides the crucial vote required to overturn the Roe vs. Wade decision.  Chief Justice John Roberts, Jr. writes the opinion that essentially returns abortion to state legislatures to decide the issue as they see fit.  A backlash develops on the left...

7. Vice-President Biden is kept on as Obama's running-mate.

8. Iraq further stabilizes, allowing the Obama administration to withdraw up to 100,000 American troops by the late summer of 2011.  With the assent of the Iraqi government, the remainder (~40,000) is kept as a deterrent to Iran. 

9. American troop levels in Afghanistan is escalated to 100,000 by early 2012.  Situation in Pakistan continues to deteriorate as the Taliban focus their efforts east of the frontier provinces.  Afghanistan is stabilized, but only barely with the arrival of additional American soldiers.  The United States takes over the Afghan government in late 2009, getting rid of Hamid Karzai, and completely revamps it in an effort to rid it of corruption. 

10. Republicans regain some lost ground in the House in the 2010 mid-term elections, but lose ground in the Senate with Democrats now in control of at least 60 Senate seats.

11. After some hard-fought primaries and caucuses between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, Republicans nominate Newt Gingrich as their standard bearer (who is helped by Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour's decision to give his delegates to Gingrich, providing him with the crucial votes necessary to clinch the nomination).  He picks Mike Pence as his running-mate.

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Obama/Biden: 377 EV/55% PV
Gingrich/Pence: 161 EV/44% PV
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Of course, once the 2010 census has been conducted, the electoral vote numbers will be altered from this map. 

Welcome back, Frodo :)