Talk Elections

* Salzburg (my home state) - March 1, 2009 (also local elections)

* Carinthia - March 1, 2009 (also local elections)

* European Parliament Elections - June 7, 2009

* Vorarlberg - September 20, 2009

* Upper Austria - September 27, 2009 (also local elections)

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Previous Election Results:

Salzburg 2004

SPÖ - 45.4%
ÖVP - 37.9%
FPÖ - 8.7%
Greens - 8.0%

Carinthia 2004

FPÖ - 42.4%
SPÖ - 38.4%
ÖVP - 11.6%
Greens - 6.7%
KPÖ - 0.6%
Others - 0.3%

Upper Austria 2003

ÖVP - 43.4%
SPÖ - 38.3%
Greens - 9.1%
FPÖ - 8.4%
KPÖ - 0.8%

Vorarlberg 2004

ÖVP - 54.9%
SPÖ - 16.9%
Greens - 10.2%
FPÖ - 12.9%
Others - 5.1%

Austria - European Parliament 2004

SPÖ - 33.3%
ÖVP - 32.7%
HP Martin - 14.0%
Greens - 12.9%
FPÖ - 6.3%
The Left - 0.8%

Latest polls:

Salzburg/IMAS/November 2008

SPÖ - 44%
ÖVP - 34%
FPÖ - 10%
Greens - 8%
BZÖ - 4%

Gov. Gabriele Burgstaller (SPÖ) defeats ÖVP-frontrunner Wilfried Haslauer 51-24 in a direct-vote for Governor with the rest undecided or supporting minor party candidates.

Upper Austria/IMAS/November 2008

ÖVP - 42%
SPÖ - 31%
FPÖ - 10%
Greens - 9%
BZÖ - 6%
Others - 2%

Carinthia/Market/July 2008 (Note: Conducted before the death of Jörg Haider)

BZÖ - 42%
SPÖ - 32%
ÖVP - 11%
Greens - 8%
FPÖ - 6%
Others - 1%

Vorarlberg/Berndt/January 2008

ÖVP - 50%
SPÖ - 16%
FPÖ - 16%
Greens - 11%
BZÖ - 3%
Others - 4%

First Carinthia poll by IMAS after the death of Gov. Jörg Haider (BZÖ):

BZÖ: 44% (+44 since 2004 election)
SPÖ: 35% (-3)
ÖVP: 10% (-2)
Greens: 5% (-2)
FPÖ: 5% (-37)
Others: 1% (nc)

Top choice for governor:

Gerhard Dörfler, BZÖ - 42%
Reinhart Rohr, SPÖ - 15%
Josef Martinz, ÖVP - 13%
Rolf Holub, Grüne - 2%
Franz Schwager, FPÖ - not enough support

New Spectra poll for Upper Austria:

ÖVP - 46%
SPÖ - 33%
FPÖ - 9%
Greens - 8%
Others - 4%

Ah. Carinthia=Kärnten, correct?

Yes.

New national Profil/OGM poll out:

SPÖ - 34% (Grand-Coalition-member)
ÖVP - 28% (Grand-Coalition-member)

FPÖ - 17%
Greens - 11%
BZÖ - 9%
Others - 1%

Another Gallup/Ö24 poll shows:

SPÖ - 31% (Grand-Coalition-member)
ÖVP - 29% (Grand-Coalition-member)

FPÖ - 17%
Greens - 14%
BZÖ - 7%
Others - 2%

Meanwhile, Hans-Peter Martin has announced that he'll run for re-election in the June 2009 EURO Parliament Elections, maybe on the "Libertas" list of Declan Ganley, who fought the Lisbon Treaty in Ireland earlier this year.

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Ganley has also talked with French politician Philippe de Villiers about running in June. In the 2004 EURO elections, Hans-Peter Martin got 14% of the vote in Austria and 2 seats in the EU Parliament. Ganley also said that "Libertas" will contest the Elections in all 27 states of the EU.

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Also, Ulrike Lunacek, Austrian MP from the Green Party announced that she's running to succeed Johannes Voggenhuber, Austrian Green member of the EURO Parliament. Lunacek is the first lesbian MP in Austria and will be the first lesbian Austrian MEP in Brussels. She's also the head of the European Greens.

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Villiers? Blech.

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Ö24 reports today that President Heinz Fischer (SPÖ) is thinking about not running for re-election in 2010, allthough he has an approval rating of 80%.

If he decides to retire, the SPÖ could nominate the popular President of the Austrian Parliament, Barbara Prammer.

The ÖVP is likely to nominate Erwin Pröll, popular Governor of Lower Austria.

I'm looking forward to this race, if it indeed happens:

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Map of the 2004 Salzburg State Elections I've just found:

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derStandard.at reports today that President Fischer (SPÖ) will decide by Mid-2009 if he'll run for re-election in 2010 or not.

3 new Carinthia (internal) polls are out as well:

Sora, for the SPÖ

BZÖ - 41%
SPÖ - 38%
ÖVP - 11%
Greens - 6%
FPÖ - 2%
Others - 2%

OGM, for the BZÖ

BZÖ - 42%
SPÖ - 29%
ÖVP - 12%
Greens - 10%
FPÖ - 5%
Others - 2%

ÖVP poll, unknown institute

BZÖ - 40%
SPÖ - 30%
ÖVP - 13%
Greens - 6%
FPÖ - 4%
Others - 7%

Wow. What's the threshold?

5%

Do you think the FPÖ will make it?

Maybe barely: the FPÖ at 5%, the BZÖ at 40%.

If the 2008 Parliamentary Results of Carinthia are any indicator (they are of course not), the FPÖ could get between 5-8% ...

Latest federal poll by Market for the newspaper "Der Standard":

SPÖ: 31%
ÖVP: 27%
FPÖ: 23%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 9%
Others: 1%

The 32% would be the best showing of the Austrian Far-Right (FPÖ/BZÖ) since the Nazis ...

Disgusting ... :( Don't know what's wrong with my countrymen/women ...

Meanwhile a brand-new Ö24/Gallup poll shows the Far-Right in worse shape (24%) than the Standard poll:

SPÖ: 33%
ÖVP: 29%
FPÖ: 17%
Greens: 12%
BZÖ: 7%
Others: 2%

Latest Salzburg poll by GMK:

SPÖ: 41% (-4 since 2004 election)
ÖVP: 36% (-2)
FPÖ: 14% (+5)
Greens: 6% (-2)
BZÖ: 3% (+3)

In a direct vote for Governor, incumbent Gabriele Burgstaller (SPÖ) would defeat Wilfried Haslauer (ÖVP) by 51-27 ...

Latest Upper Austria poll by Market:

ÖVP: 43%
SPÖ: 32%
FPÖ: 12%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 4%

In a hypothetical direct vote for Governor, Incumbent Josef Pühringer (ÖVP) would defeat Erich Haider (SPÖ) by 63-21.

2 new Carinthia polls:

Integral for the newspaper Kurier (500 voters, aged 16+):

BZÖ - 42%
SPÖ - 34%
ÖVP - 12%
Greens - 7%
FPÖ - 5%

Gov. Gerhard Dörfler (BZÖ) defeats Reinhart Rohr (SPÖ) by 51-26 in a hypothetical direct vote.

Humaninstitut Klagenfurt (joke poll in my opinion):

SPÖ - 27%
BZÖ - 25%
ÖVP - 9%
FPÖ - 8%
Greens - 6%
Undecided/Others - 25%

1 new Salzburg poll:

Integral for the newspaper Kurier (500 voters, aged 16+):

SPÖ - 40%
ÖVP - 35%
FPÖ - 12%
Greens - 9%
BZÖ - 4%

Gov. Gabriele Burgstaller (SPÖ) defeats Wilfried Haslauer (ÖVP) by 56-32 in a hypothetical direct vote.

New Salzburg poll by IGF – Institut für Grundlagenforschung:

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We Salzburgers not only love the Social Democrats, but also our politicians:

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(Explanation: Gov. Burgstaller gets a 77-22 "trust-rating", compared with 73-14 in a February 2008 poll and so on ...)

Burgstaller (SPÖ) defeats Haslauer (ÖVP) by 55-20 in a direct vote for Governor, despite the fact that Haslauer gets a 72-23 trust-rating ... ;)

In today's edition of the newspaper "Österreich" there's a big "Gallup" poll release for the Austrian "Super-election-years 2009/10".

They polled 3 state elections this year, the EU-Parliament Elections in June, the Presidential Election in April 2010 and the so called "Sonntagsfrage" - the parties standing in federal elections:

Let's start with the Federal Elections (the last held in October 2008, the next probably in 2013):

SPÖ: 34% (+5 since the Oct. elections)
ÖVP: 30% (+4)
FPÖ: 15% (-3)
Greens: 13% (+3)
BZÖ: 6% (-5)
Others: 2% (-4)

That's a clear improvement for the SPÖ-ÖVP government since the elections 4 months ago (+9%), especially because Austrians approve by 59-32 of the Coalition work so far. They approve 52-34 how the Coalition handles the financial crisis.

Second: The EU-Parliamentary Elections in June. And there's a surprise in the first Austrian poll on this election:

ÖVP: 31% (-2 since 2004 election)
SPÖ: 30% (-3)
FPÖ: 20% (+14)
Greens: 14% (+1)
BZÖ: 4% (+4)
Others: 1% (-14)

Remember that Independent Hans-Peter Martin got 14% in 2004 and The Left (KPÖ) 1%, therefore the sharp decrease in "Others". It is not yet clear if Martin will run again this year. Otherwise strong showing by the "Anti-EU"-parties FPÖ and BZÖ - as expected.

Third, the 2010 Presidential elections:

Incumbent Heinz Fischer (SPÖ) will announce in Mid-2009 if he'll run for a second term in 2010. he currently enjoys 80% approval ratings:

Gallup tested the following 1st round:

Heinz Fischer (SPÖ): 54%
Erwin Pröll (ÖVP): 17%
Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ): 10%
Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens): 9%

There wouldn't even be a run-off, Fischer would easily win in the first round.

And then there's the 3 state elections that were polled by Gallup:

On March 1, Salzburg and Carinthia will vote:

The Salzburg poll:

SPÖ - 39%
ÖVP - 37%
FPÖ - 14%
Greens - 7%
BZÖ - 3%

That's a slightly tighter race than other polls have showed, but the SPÖ has only started its campaign recently, while the ÖVP has started about a month ago.

The Carinthia poll:

BZÖ - 41%
SPÖ - 35%
ÖVP - 13%
FPÖ - 6%
Greens - 5%

It would just be too good if the SPÖ would defeat the BZÖ, especially after Gov. Dörflers recent "n-joke". According to Gallup, the BZÖ would win over 50% if Jörg Haider would be alive. 72% in Carinthia are missing Jörg Haider.

The Upper Austria poll:

ÖVP - 40%
SPÖ - 35%
FPÖ - 12%
Greens - 9%
BZÖ - 4%

Upper Austria has always been a ÖVP-stronghold in state elections, but the recent VOEST-layoffs and shorter working times in this "Steel-State" (particular in and around Linz) may have helped the state SPÖ to come closer to federal SPÖ results.

For the German-speakers on this Forum. The "Wahlkabinen" for the March 1 Salzburg and Carinthia elections:

http://wahlkabine.at/ltw2009salzburg

http://wahlkabine.at/ltw2009kaernten

My result of the "Wahlkabine"

Kärnten:

KPÖ       214
Grüne    168
SPÖ         77
BZÖ        -21
ÖVP        -34
FPÖ         -66


Salzburg:

Grüne     152
SPÖ          56
ÖVP          -3
FPÖ          -9
BZÖ         -24

I think this result is OK, maybe the score for the BZÖ and FPÖ is a little bit to good

Lol. Salzburg:

    Grüne      226
      
-32    SPÖ    
      
-159    BZÖ    
      
-172    FPÖ    
      
-223    ÖVP    

Maybe I was in a confrontational mood. Didn't do the other one.

I took the Wahlkabinen-Questions as well and my results are quite similar to both of yours, only that the other parties did not have a "minus" in front of them ...

BTW: The Green Party convention is resuming today and lesbian MP Ulrike Lunacek defeated MEP Johannes Voggenhuber for front-runner in the June Euro-Parliament-Elections, by 55%-45%. After that, Voggenhuber declared that he'll retire from politics. The second place in the Green EU list was won by current MEP Eva Lichtenberger, the 3rd by Monika Vana (Green Council Member in Vienna).

Eva Glawischnig meanwhile was elected Austrian Green Party leader with 97% of the vote.

I took the one for Salzburg....I'll do the other one at some point.

ÖVP: +105
FPÖ: +35
BZÖ: +20
SPÖ: -25
Grüne: -80

Latest Salzburg poll by IGF (Institut für Grundlagenforschung):

SPÖ: 42%
ÖVP: 37%
FPÖ: 11%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 1%

How times have changed:


Koch's CDU just won the Hesse elections and the b**ch Winter was just sentenced to 3 months in prison and to pay a fine of 25.000€ ... ;)


Well, they got 28% in Oct. 2008 ...

Freedom of expression is such a cherished liberty in central Europe. ::)

Latest Salzburg City poll by IGF:

SPÖ: 41% (-3 compared with 2004)
ÖVP: 27% (nc)
Greens: 15% (nc)
FPÖ: 11% (+1)
BZÖ: 4% (+4)
KPÖ: 2% (nc)

Latest Salzburg poll by Gallup/Ö24:

SPÖ: 39%
ÖVP: 35%
FPÖ: 14%
Greens: 7%
BZÖ: 4%
Others: 1%

Latest national poll, also by Gallup/Ö24:

SPÖ: 33%
ÖVP: 29%
FPÖ: 16%
Greens: 13%
BZÖ: 7%
Others: 2%

New Salzburg poll by IMAS, published in today's edition of the newspaper "Krone":

SPÖ: 45-47%
ÖVP: 36-38%
FPÖ: 7-9%
Greens: 6-8%
BZÖ: 1-3%

This is a far better result for the SPÖ than in the Gallup poll yesterday. I believe that the SPÖ will win, but I doubt that it will do better than in 2004 ...

Also, the latest Carinthia poll - also by IMAS - is showing a close race:

BZÖ: 40-42%
SPÖ: 39-41%
ÖVP: 9-11%
Greens: 5-7%
FPÖ: 4-6%

It would be great if the SPÖ defeats the BZÖ and the FPÖ fails to cross the 5% treshold ... ;)

The Institute IMAS has an interesting report out, studying the long-term voting intentions of Austrian voters from 1981-2009, broken down by demographic groups (comparable with the American Pew Research Insititute):

Young Austrian voters under 30 are voting heavily for the far-right FPÖ/BZÖ (37%) and the Greens (19%) and the older they become, the more they tend to support the centrist SPÖ and ÖVP (currently the government).

The 37% is far higher than the 28% FPÖ/BZÖ received in the federal elections last year.

In the age group 50+, already 63% support SPÖ and ÖVP, compared with 44% in the sub-30 group.

Currently, 33% of men support FPÖ/BZÖ, compared with 24% of women. 37% of men back SPÖ/Greens, compared with 47% of women.

22% of people with a high school or university diploma support the Greens, compared with 5% of those without.

http://www.imas.at/content/download/510/2053/version/1/file/02_02.pdf

Meanwhile the Chamber of Labor elections in the states of Salzburg and Vorarlberg took place during the last 2 weeks. All the votes are counted in Vorarlberg and the ÖVP Union won comfortably. In Salzburg, half the votes are counted and the Social-Democrat FSG has increased their share to about 70%. The FPÖ Union just increased their share by 4%, far worse than I anticipated. These union elections are indicators as to how the state elections will play out this year. I voted for the FSG and also intend to vote for the SPÖ (lean) or Greens in the March 1 state elections.

Latest Carinthia poll by Hayek:

BZÖ: 38%
SPÖ: 36%
ÖVP: 12%
Greens: 7%
FPÖ: 5%
Others: 2%

Also, Gallup for Ö24:

BZÖ: 41%
SPÖ: 35%
ÖVP: 13%
Greens: 6%
FPÖ: 5%

Another (SPÖ-internal) by SORA:

SPÖ: 41%
BZÖ: 38%
ÖVP: 10%
Greens: 6%
FPÖ: 3%
Others: 2%

...

GO, SPÖ !!! ;)

Any nationwide polls?

No new polls this weekend ... (But scroll up and you'll find the latest.)

A new national poll is out (Market for the newspaper Standard):

SPÖ: 34%
ÖVP: 29%
FPÖ: 21%
Greens: 10%
BZÖ: 6%

Is an SPO-OVP anti-BZO coalition conceivable (maybe with the Greens, too, if necessary)?

So far they have not made any coalition preferences, but it`s not unlikely.

Maybe they'll continue the current BZÖ-SPÖ-ÖVP coalition ... ;)

New Carinthia poll by Market for News Online:

BZÖ: 39%
SPÖ: 36%
ÖVP: 12%
Greens: 7%
FPÖ: 5%
Others: 1%

Still hoping for the SPÖ to overtake the BZÖ and the FPÖ to fall below 5% ...

New Salzburg poll by Market for News Online:

SPÖ: 44%
ÖVP: 37%
Greens: 9%
FPÖ: 8%
BZÖ: 2%

A few weeks ago I would have voted for the SPÖ for strategic reasons (the race was closer), but given the current 7-point lead I'll probably vote Green again ...

New (internal) Gallup poll for the ÖVP:

SPÖ: 39-40%
ÖVP: 36-37%
FPÖ: 13-14%
Greens: 7-8%
BZÖ: 2-3%

500 Salzburg State voters aged 16+ surveyed between Feb. 2-4, 2009. MoE = 4%

Latest federal Profil/OGM poll:

SPÖ: 32%
ÖVP: 30%
FPÖ: 21%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 7%
Others: 1%

That's pretty damn depressing, for several reasons.

Yes. But just wait for next year, when the Vienna State (City) Elections take place:

H.C. Strache, who will be the mayoral candidate for the FPÖ, recently said in the Pressestunde that in Vienna the FPÖ is polling at more than 30% right now in their internal polls, with the SPÖ at 40% or below. There are no independent polls as of now to prove this, but I think it's not impossible. The day Vienna elects H.C. Strache as mayor would be a very sad day. Thankfully Johannes Hahn of the City-ÖVP has ruled out any form of work with the Strache-FPÖ, not to mention SPÖ and the Greens. But Mayor Michael Häupl (SPÖ) - in office since 1994 - will not be mayor forever, and 2010 seems to be the year when the FPÖ will launch a strong campaign against him ...

2 new federal polls I´ve just found:

Gallup/Ö24

SPÖ: 34%
ÖVP: 31%
FPÖ: 17%
Greens: 11%
BZÖ: 7%

Fessel-GfK/Kronen Zeitung:

SPÖ: 33-34%
ÖVP: 31-32%
FPÖ: 17%
Greens: 9-10%
BZÖ: 5%

New Profil/OGM poll on 2 social issues in Austria:

Abolish the subject "Religion" in schools and replace it with the subject "Ethics" (currently you can choose between Religion (Catholic, Evangelic & Islam - in some schools - and Ethics, as was the case in my high school):

Support: 30%
Oppose: 62%

Liberalization of the current gun laws (to make it easier to get handguns):

Support: 9%
Oppose: 89%

It seems Austrians are very Anti-Gun and not in line with H.C. Strache (FPÖ) on this issue, who proposed an easing of gun laws recently, so that cab-drivers, tobacconists, jewelers etc. can arm themselves against "foreign" criminals ...

http://www.wienweb.at/content.aspx?menu=4&cid=160549

I support the first one.

And I don't completely oppose the second one....but I'm not too big a fan.

I support the status quo, that you can choose between the subjects. I oppose the second one.

There's also another question that was asked by OGM that I´ve just found:

Do you think Homosexuality is curable ?

85% No
10% Yes
5% Undecided

I'm actually somewhat surprised. I would have believed maybe 70% NO in Austria.

Austria's politicians are trailing society when it comes to recognizing gay unions or marriage.

The Greens are strongly pushing it, while SPÖ and ÖVP seem to have other priorities, and BZÖ and FPÖ against.

Latest polls from 2004 (Gallup) and 2006 (Eurobarometer) show 70% of Austrians in favor of Civil Unions and a majority for Marriage Rights (50%-44%).

Especially, when it comes to adoption of children by gay couples, Austria ranks third among the 27 EU-countries in support, just trailing the Netherlands and Sweden. 45% support it and 49% oppose it.

Latest GMK Salzburg poll:

SPÖ: 39-41%
ÖVP: 36-38%
FPÖ: 13-16%
Greens: 5-7%
BZÖ: 2-4%

New (internal) IGF poll for the SPÖ:

SPÖ: 41%
ÖVP: 36%
FPÖ: 12%
Greens: 8%
BZÖ: 3%

With 1 week to go, the polls are tightening a bit, allthough Gov. Burgstaller (SPÖ) beats out her ÖVP counterpart in every poll by wide margins. The Social-Democrats also receive better grades for campaigning and "being most in touch with the citizens".

But the latest Market poll for the newspaper Standard shows:

SPÖ: 43%
ÖVP: 39%
FPÖ: 9%
Greens: 7%
BZÖ: 2%

I doubt that the FPÖ will only get 9%, because they almost always underpoll. It's more likely that the FPÖ will receive 16%, with the BZÖ about 4%. This will also lead to a lower share for the SPÖ, making the race for #1 more interesting. But lets hope this poll is the final result and Salzburg voters show the middle finger to the rightwingers FPÖ/BZÖ.

Meanwhile, in a Profil-interview Austrian President Heinz Fischer (SPÖ) has declared his support for full marriage rights of homosexual couples, not only civil unions, which is the mainstream opinion among coalition politicians.

According to recent news articles and Interior Minister Maria Fekter (ÖVP), it is now certain that Austrian Parliament will pass a civil union law this autumn that'll be active by Jan. 1, 2010.

Only the Greens have been for full marriage rights so far, while the SPÖ favored civil unions and the ÖVP was split (the more liberal wing incl. Vice Chancellor Josef Pröll for civil unions and the more conservative wing incl. General Secretary Fritz Kaltenegger against).

http://www.news.at/articles/0908/10/234475/es-standesamt-fischer-ehe-homosexuellen

New Carinthia poll by Market for the newspaper Standard:

BZÖ: 39%
SPÖ: 37%
ÖVP: 12%
Greens: 7%
FPÖ: 5%

After watching the TV debates yesterday, here are my official endorsements for Sunday's
elections:

In my home state Salzburg, I'll vote for the Green Party, mainly because of their environmental and social stances (and especially because of Cyriak Schwaighofers good debate yesterday), and against Gov. Gabriele Burgstaller (SPÖ), because - allthough she's done a brilliant job over the last 5 years - she's not ruled out a coalition with the fascist and xenophobic FPÖ.

()

In Carinthia, I support Reinhart Rohr and the Social Democratic Party (SPÖ), because Gov. Dörfler (BZÖ) is a sick joke and turning into some kind of Carinthian George W. Bush:

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Disgusting human trash. Anybody co-operating with xenophobes is trash.

Or a career politician.

Wait... ;)

Burgstaller cooperating with the FPO would just be a moronic political move. I can see the election results in my head...

2009:

SPO: 40
OVP: 38
FPO: 10
Grune: 7

SPO/Grune comes one seat short of a majority, so Burgstaller goes with the FPO.

2011:

OVP: 36
SPO: 29
Grune: 19
FPO: 14

FPO pulls the plug on the government early with some ridiculous demand. Grune surges, SPO collapses. OVP/SPO grand coalition.

2015:

OVP: 30
SPO: 29
FPO: 22
Grune: 17

FPO makes hay out of an unpopular coalition government, Grune does so as well and keeps its strong figures. Another OVP/SPO grand coalition ensues.

etc.

I think that FPÖ+BZÖ will get close to 20% on Sunday, maybe (16+4). Burgstaller not ruling out a coalition with the FPÖ probably has to do with the fact that the SPÖ owes a great share of its vote in 2004 and probably again this Sunday to blue-collar low income workers, who tend to vote for the FPÖ. By saying she's not ruling out a coalition beforehand, she strategically wants to appeal to these voters again. If she ruled out right away, those voters would have gone to the FPÖ in a second. Nonetheless, I think that the current SPÖ-ÖVP coalition will continue.

There's also a new poll out by IGF for the newspaper "Salzburger Fenster":

SPÖ: 41
ÖVP: 35
FPÖ: 14
Greens: 8
BZÖ: 2

BTW: The State and town ÖVP was targeting me today by sending me 2 letters including a ÖVP-pencil and a ÖVP-cereal bar ... ;)

I've also received a letter by Gov. Burgstaller, but nothing from the Greens, FPÖ or BZÖ so far ...

A new Gallup/Ö24 poll shows the SPÖ closing in on the BZÖ in the final days before the vote:

BZÖ: 37-41
SPÖ: 36-40
ÖVP: 11-13
Greens: 5-7
FPÖ: 5-7

2 things not in favor of the SPÖ winning on Sunday:

20% have not yet made up their mind and most of them are former SPÖ voters who went for Haider's FPÖ in 2004. If they break heavily for the BZÖ, the BZÖ wins.

The BZÖ-led government has sent out a 40-page campaign info to ALL households in Carinthia recently.

BZO is collapsing because of the death of Haider?

The BZÖ is hardly collapsing, at least not in Carinthia. Remember that the unified FPÖ got 42% of the vote in the 2004 state elections. Together with the FPÖ they would get about 45% on Sunday ...

Nobody knows if Haider would have reached 50%, but probably not ...

Hardly. They're holding much better than I would have imagined.

Latest Gallup/Ö24 poll for Salzburg:

SPÖ: 38-40%
ÖVP: 36-38%
FPÖ: 12-14%
Greens: 6-8%
BZÖ: 3-5%

Gallup always seems to expect a tighter race in Salzburg than other polls show (5-7% SPÖ advantage). Allthough, if FPÖ and BZÖ increase their combined vote to about 15-20%, I'd trust Gallup more. If the 3 Center-Right parties are below 55%, I think the SPÖ will win, if they are getting between 55% and 60%, the ÖVP could overtake the SPÖ.

On the other side, a indicator that this will not happen is the fact that Gov. Burgstaller (SPÖ) leads Haslauer (ÖVP) by 49-26 in a direct vote for governor.

Also interesting the late BZÖ surge, but maybe not enough for the 5% treshold ...

The FPÖ and BZÖ are centre-right?

The ÖVP is center-right, FPÖ+BZÖ far-right.

...

New European Parliament Elections poll for Austria by Market for the newspaper derStandard:

SPÖ: 35% (+2 since 2004)
ÖVP: 35% (+2)
Greens: 11% (-2)
H.P. Martin: 9% (-5)
FPÖ: 8% (+2)
BZÖ: 2% (+2)

Second poll after Gallup that shows a tied race between SPÖ and ÖVP.

Interesting official campaign logo of Carinthian FPÖ frontrunner Mario Canori:

()

:P ;)

Even the fascists like Obama. Damn.

Funny note from Wikipedia on the Salzburg elections: The BZÖ will contest the state election under its new chairman Robert Stark.[2]

Anyways. What is the current governing coalition in Carinthia? Isn't it BZO-SPO?

It's a BZÖ-SPÖ-ÖVP coalition.

Rising from the dead - Haider presides over Austrian regional election

Posted by: Sarah Marsh

Some 25,000 people attended his funeral, countless books have been written about him, a bridge was named in his honour and now the spectre of Austrian far-right leader Joerg Haider is dominating a regional election in Austria.

“A campaign with the tragically deceased Haider”; “A dead man is spearheading us”; “And above all, the spectre of Joerg Haider” read newspaper headlines.

Both of Austria’s far-right parties are staking their claim to Haider’s legacy in an election in the Alpine Province of Carinthia where he was governor for more than a decade.

“Carinthia is going HIS way,” proclaim the posters of Haider’s former Freedom Party. Freedom says Haider achieved his greatest successes when heading the party.

“We will look after your Carinthia,” echo the posters of Alliance for Austria’s Future, the splinter party that Haider set up in 2005 after internal disputes within Freedom.

()

Both parties, which mopped up a third of the vote between them in Austria’s recent parliamentary election, recognise the mileage still to be had out of Haider’s success.

The populist leader, who led the right into a coalition government from 2000-2006, was one of Austria’s rare internationally recognised public figures.

Austria went into mourning when Haider died four months ago in a high-speed car crash, and leaders of all political colours turned up for his funeral.

“People have the impression that, through Haider, they became a force to be reckoned with in the world,” Klaus Ottomeyer, professor of psychology at the university of Klagenfurt, told Reuters.

Ottomeyer, who will publish a book in March about the making of the Haider myth, said the Carinthians have glorified their former governor as benevolent father figure, Robin Hood or even a patron saint.

This may baffle outsiders, who are mostly familiar with Haider’s blunt anti-immigrant rhetoric and verbal gaffes. His notoriety peaked in the 1990s when he cited “the proper labour policies” of Adolf Hitler’s Third Reich and referred to concentration camps as “penal camps” in a parliamentary debate.

But for all the far-right’s bickering over the claim to Haider’s legacy, it may be time to move on and find a new hero.

Political researcher Guenther Ogris said the Haider cult was beginning to fade, and Carinthians were turning their focus elsewhere.

“At the end of the day, the economic crisis is now the main thing on people’s minds — that is emotionally more important than the dead governor.”

http://blogs.reuters.com/global/2009/02/27/rising-from-the-dead-haider-presides-over-austrian-regional-election/

I´m going to the polls in a few hours and I'll vote for the Greens in the state elections, but vote to re-elect my SPÖ-mayor. I`ll also vote SPÖ in the town council elections.

Time for my predictions:

Salzburg

SPÖ: 39.1%
ÖVP: 34.7%
FPÖ: 15.0%
Greens: 6.8%
BZÖ: 4.2%
KPÖ: 0.2%

I expect about 80% turnout. Official results and exit polls can be found here starting at 5pm (11am Eastern):

http://www.salzburg.gv.at/20003stat/wahlen/ltw/index.htm

http://www.news.at

Carinthia

BZÖ: 38.4%
SPÖ: 36.1%
ÖVP: 13.2%
FPÖ: 6.4%
Greens: 5.7%
Others: 0.2%

I expect the South to stay stupid and also 80% turnout. Results at:

http://info.ktn.gv.at/ltwahl2009/

http://www.news.at

"Red" Gabi has already cast her ballot:

()

Exit Polls:

Salzburg

SPÖ: 38%
ÖVP: 36%
FPÖ: 14%
Greens: 8%
BZÖ: 4%

Carinthia

BZÖ: 46% (Triple-LOL !)
SPÖ: 29%
ÖVP: 16%
Greens: 5%
FPÖ: 4%

Carinthia=crap fail state.

New Salzburg Exit Poll:

SPÖ: 40.5%
ÖVP: 36.4%
FPÖ: 13.0%
Greens: 6.8%
BZÖ: 3.3%

Urgh.

With 47 of 119 cities counted in Salzburg (17% of all votes):

ÖVP: 40.5%
SPÖ: 38.7%
FPÖ: 13.5%
Greens: 4.1%
BZÖ: 3.2%

With 53 of 132 cities in Carinthia counted:

BZÖ: 46.7%
SPÖ: 27.1%
ÖVP: 19.2%
Greens: 3.3%
FPÖ: 3.1%

Pffffff ...

Carinthia should be expelled from Austria.

Yes, it should be annexed by Slovenia !

Poor Slovenes.

84 of 119 cities counted in Salzburg:

ÖVP: 39.8%
SPÖ: 38.1%
FPÖ: 13.3%
Greens: 5.2%
BZÖ: 3.5%

90 of 119 cities counted in Salzburg and the SPÖ overtakes the ÖVP:

SPÖ: 39.4%
ÖVP: 38.5%
FPÖ: 13.3%
Greens: 5.3%
BZÖ: 3.5%

Mostly bigger, urban cities (incl. Salzburg-City, Zell am See and Saalfelden) still remaining. SPÖ has clearly won due to the SPÖ-leaning of these cities.

Where are you getting those numbers?

http://www.salzburg.gv.at/20003stat/wahlen/ltw/index.htm sez:

SPÖ: 39.6%
ÖVP: 36.4%
FPÖ: 13.1%
Greens: 7.1%
BZÖ: 3.7%

Carinthia is taking a long time. Not surprising, since it's a crap backwards state.

news.at is a bit more progressive in updating:

http://www.news.at/nw1/dyn/wahlen/ltw09/sbg/index.php

Ah, my bad:

On the Gov. page, you need to click on "Tabellen Land/Bezirke" to get the actual numbers. The one's you have posted are the exit poll numbers.

Results in the Carinthian town of Zell, which is around 86% Slovene.

SPÖ 51.60 (-1.99)
GRÜNE 17.53 (+5.20)
ÖVP 15.31 (-7.34)
BZÖ 13.09

That's why I said that Slovenia should annex Carinthia. Imagine the fun !

Now it's the Secretary of the Salzburg State ÖVP who just announced that his party could enter a coalition with the FPÖ ...

In Salzburg, the ÖVP is dominating the municipal and mayoral elections so far:

Municipal (62 of 119 cities counted):

ÖVP: 53%
SPÖ: 30%
FPÖ: 11%
Greens: 2%
Others: 4%

Mayoral (61 of 119 cities counted):

ÖVP: 65%
SPÖ: 28%
FPÖ: 2%
Greens: 1%
Others: 4%

BTW:

Turnout was about 75% in Salzburg and 80% in Carinthia.

Anybody know a place where I can find a labelled map of Carinthian and Salzburg municipalities?

Yes, at the Salzburg GIS for example:

http://www.salzburg.gv.at/landkarten.htm

But it's in German and you would need to change some values to include City names ...

So far, I can only provide a blank map of Austrian cities:

http://666kb.com/i/aq61qboueeeptc5mr.png

Where do I click to indicate city border and names?

Looks like the fascists will have a majority of seats in Carinthia. What a damn awful sh**thole state.

Gemeindegrenzen and Gemeindenamen.

Turning off Hintergrund will also cut out a lot of work for you.

Final results from Salzburg

SPÖ 39.5
ÖVP 36.5
FPÖ 13.1
Greens 7.3
BZÖ 3.7

turnout 73.4

18 out of 36.

()

Why are some of those rural (?) mountain town so left-wing, especially that Red Belt of sorts running through the centre?

Thanks for the map. As for the question, I think there's no uniform answer to it. Most of these rural cities are ski resorts, but that does not automatically mean that they are voting for the SPÖ.

Just look at one of the 2 biggest and most famous ski resorts in Austria:

Kaprun (remember the 2000 tragedy, where 150 or so people were killed there). It has historically been a SPÖ-stronghold, also in this election.

Saalbach-Hinterglemm on the other hand, where the Alpine Ski World Championship took place in 1992, is one of the most ÖVP leaning cities in the state.

As for the bigger cities, Zell am See for example, they always tend to vote for the SPÖ, but this year they voted for an ÖVP mayor with 60% after re-electing the SPÖ candidate with 70% in 2004.

Other smaller places may have lots of blue-collar workers who tend to vote for the SPÖ, such as in Saalfelden, where there lots of industries or in Lend, where's an Aluminium factory.

In Schwarzach, there's the hospital and its staff is very leftist as well ...

I´ve created a map of the combined vote of SPÖ+Greens (Red) and ÖVP+FPÖ+BZÖ (Blue), with 3 shades (50%+, 60%+, 70%+):

()

My sympathy, Tender, that you have such an awful state in Austria :)

Seems kind of like our Alabama.

The same map for Carinthia, using the fitting colors (BZÖ+ÖVP+FPÖ) and (SPÖ+Greens+KPÖ):

(I had to use 4 scales for the Rightwingers (50%+, 60%+, 70%+ and 80%+)

()

Postal votes in Carinthia are partially counted and they have pushed the Greens from 4.99% to 5.13%, so that they will finally get their 2 seats because of the 5%-treshold. The remaining postal votes will be counted next Monday:

BZÖ: 44.9% (17 seats)
SPÖ: 28.8% (11 seats)
ÖVP: 16.8% (6 seats)
Greens: 5.1% (2 seats)

FPÖ: 3.8%
KPÖ: 0.5%
Others: 0.1%

What's the hard-red place in the Pongau?

Zell, I'd bet. As I said, it's 86% Slovene.

IIRC, only majority Slovene town in Carinthia.

This is a most excellent night for the people of Carinthia.

No, Pongau is the "District of St. Johann" - situated in Salzburg.

And the dark red city is Schwarzach, where the county hospital is situated. And doctors and med-staff tend to be hardcore SPÖ/Greens. It's the hospital where Dieter Althaus (CDU) was treated after his ski accident, remember ?

It's also a Train node, and train node cities are always hardcore SPÖ as well.

Interesting Exit Poll about first-time-voters in Salzburg (age 16-23):

30% FPÖ
17% SPÖ
4% BZÖ
1% ÖVP and Greens
48% Non-Voters

Which means, of those who went to the polls, 65% voted for FPÖ+BZÖ ...

In other words....the right-wing isn't going away soon.

No, it won't. Stay tuned for Upper Austria and Vorarlberg in the fall. I expect ÖVP+FPÖ+BZÖ to cross 60% in Upper Austria and 70% in Vorarlberg, with FPÖ+BZÖ getting close to 20% in Upper Austria and maybe 25% in Vorarlberg. But "the real big thing" will be Vienna next year.

I'd be careful about putting too much faith in exit poll details; though, yeah, it's pretty obvious that the FPÖ has a relatively young profile.

Tell me, which party would you have voted for in Germany in 1932?

Yes, voting for the FPO or BZO is basically the same thing. You want conservatives, vote OVP.

What are the chances of any changes to the final partisan tally of Sunday's provincial elections in Carinthia (where Tender said the remaining postal votes would be counted this coming Monday)?  In Salzburg?

What seat allocation method does each states use among those parties meeting the 5% threshold?  I know it's 5% in Carinthia, but what about Salzburg and all the other states?

Salzburg is already fully counted and there have been basically no changes, because postal votes only made up 6% of all ballots that were cast. Of these 6%, turnout was about 83% and most of these ballot were already counted on Sunday.

So the final result in Salzburg is:

SPÖ: 39.4% (-6.0)
ÖVP: 36.5% (-1.4)
FPÖ: 13.0% (+4.3)
Greens: 7.4% (-0.6)
BZÖ: 3.7% (+3.7)

Turnout: 74.4% (-2.9)

Breakdown of Salzburg postal votes:

ÖVP: 42.3%
SPÖ: 35.6%
Greens: 10.6%
FPÖ: 8.9%
BZÖ: 2.6%

As for Austrian state elections, the treshold varies from state to state. In Lower Austria, Upper Austria and Burgenland there´s a 4% treshold for a party to enter the state parliament, in Salzburg, Carinthia, Vienna, Tyrol and Vorarlberg there´s a 5% treshold and in Styria a party needs a basic mandate in one of the electoral districts. The seats are allocated according to the Hagenbach-Bischoff-method (1st evaluation round) and the D´Hondt-method (2nd evaluation round).

Here's how Carinthia allocates its seats based on the 2 evaluation rounds:

http://info.ktn.gv.at/ltwahl2009/LT2009_mandate.pdf

BTW: A renewed SPÖVP coalition in Salzburg is basically guaranteed ...

Outside Styria, does a party have to obtain the 4% or 5% quota even to get a mandate seat (not that that would matter in most cases)?  I would think not as the gultige stimmen pro wahlkrs. upon which the wahlzahl (electoral district quota) seemed to be based equaled the sum of all the parties' votes in each electoral district.  If the votes of all parties are going to count in the denominator for an electoral district mandate, one would think all parties would be elligible for such a mandate regardless of their statewide performance.  The ratio of the gultige to the wahlzahl equaled the mandate pro wahlkrs. which would seem to indicate the Hare quota rather than the Hagenbach-Bischoff quota being used, although I guess that isn't inconsistent with the Hagenbach-Bischoff method and actually makes more sense if the aim is statewide proportionality after proportionality-enhancing seats are added (higher quota in the first tier = less chance of overhang mandates).

In Styria and outside of Styria if no party not meeting the statewide threshold gets a mandate in any electoral district, does the party composition always (or almost always) match that of land-wide D'Hondt among those parties meeting the threshold?  I noticed no non-integer reststimmen on your link (http://info.ktn.gv.at/ltwahl2009/LT2009_mandate.pdf), so perhaps if a party or parties were within a vote or two of gaining/losing a seat from/to a larger party or parties under D'Hondt (a vote for a party "going for" a smaller number of seats would count more than a vote for a party going for a larger number of seats), the composition of the two or more parties' votes in each district could make a difference.  Or are fractional values calculated for the reststimmen, just not shown on your link?  If the end statewide partisan tally in Carinthia will be that of pure D'Hondt among those parties getting 5% or more of the statewide vote, then I could calculate what would need to happen with the outstanding postal votes in order for any seats to change hands.

Final result in Carinthia (all postal votes counted):

BZÖ: 44.89% (17 seats)
SPÖ: 28.74% (11 seats)
ÖVP: 16.83% (6 seats)
Greens: 5.15% (2 seats)
FPÖ: 3.76%
KPÖ: 0.53%
Others: 0.10%

Turnout: 81.78% (+3.15%)

Breakdown of postal votes only (6% of all ballots cast):

BZÖ: 35.06%
SPÖ: 31.15%
ÖVP: 22.24%
Greens: 7.73%
FPÖ: 3.23%
KPÖ: 0.55%
Others: 0.04%

Looks like a late swing to the BZÖ. Crazy.

Probably the Haider-effect, or bad opinion polls.

Some new approval ratings for important Austrian politicians, according to the institute OGM for the newspaper Profil, conducted March 9, among 500 voters aged 16+:

President Heinz Fischer (SPÖ): 82% Approve, 12% Disapprove (will decide in Mid-2009 if he runs for a second term next year, with these numbers he's probably easily re-elected)

President of the Parliament Barbara Prammer (SPÖ): 51% Approve, 17% Disapprove (if Fischer retires, she's a likely candidate for the SPÖ and the first female candidate for the SPÖ in a Presidential election)

Chancellor Werner Faymann (SPÖ): 57% Approve, 28% Disapprove (has seen better ratings before, probably suffered because of the election losses of the Carinthia and Salzburg SPÖ recently)

Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Josef Pröll (ÖVP): 67% Approve, 26% Disapprove (has always been popular, a younger liberal and competent face of the ÖVP, probably boosted by the improved result of the Carinthian ÖVP)

Minister of Education Claudia Schmied (SPÖ): 52% Approve, 28% Disapprove (currently in a bitter fight with the teachers, because she wants them to work 2 hours more per week, otherwise teachers will be fired because of the limited budget, teachers are of course pissed, but the Austrian population is on her side, according to polls - similar to Obama's fight with the US Teachers Union)

FPÖ-leader Heinz-Christian Strache: 29% Approve, 60% Disapprove (his next big fight will be the Vienna State and City elections, where he wants to beat long-time mayor Michael Häupl (SPÖ) and become mayor. Probably not happening though, but he's got a boost because of the good result in last years federal elections)

http://www.ogm.at/pdfs/Bundespolitiker_Maerz09.pdf

Latest federal Gallup poll for the newspaper Profil:

SPÖ: 33%
ÖVP: 31%
FPÖ: 19%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 7%
Others: 1%

What will the likely government in Carinthia be?  Or has it already been determined?  A 19-17 majority seems too narrow for an SPÖ-ÖVP-Greens coalition, so I'd imagine there would be either a two party coalition including the BZÖ (and not including the Greens, probably BZÖ-ÖVP) or a BZÖ minority government.  I'm not sure if there's any history for minority governments (as opposed to single-party majority governments or majority coalition governments) in Austria or its states, however.  There may be a lot.  I just don't know.

According to the newspaper Kleine Zeitung, BZÖ-chair Uwe Scheuch has invited ÖVP and SPÖ to coalition talks and has stated that he wants negotiations to be finished by April 3.

ÖVP-chair Josef Martinz has said that a coalition with the BZÖ is now likely. The SPÖ on the other hand will likely move into opposition.

.....

Meanwhile, run-off elections will be held today to determine several mayors in Salzburg and Carinthia, including Salzburg City and Klagenfurt.

In Salzburg City, mayor Heinz Schaden (SPÖ) will be up against Harry Preuner (ÖVP). Turnout will be low (~50%). Preuner would just be the second ÖVP mayor in the capital since World War 2.

In 3 other Salzburg cities, run-offs will be held as well.

In Klagenfurt, BZÖ-candidate Christian Scheider and SPÖ-candidate Maria-Luise Mathiaschitz are in a bitter fight.

In 36 other Carinthian cities, run-offs will be held as well.

Update:

Salzburg-City: Mayor Heinz Schaden (SPÖ) wins with 54% of the vote.

Klagenfurt: Christian Scheider (BZÖ) wins with 64% of the vote.

Latest IMAS poll of voting intentions for under-30-year-olds:

()

AUstria must have the most right wing youth in Europe. Pretty sad for what once was the cultural centre of Europe. 43 % voting for the extreme right.

But what percentage actually vote? (just a guess that this might be a case of general disillusionment and apathy, with a sizeable share heading into angryland instead. Might be wrong).

Yes, but this is Austria. Remember the country we are talking about here.

Also I mimic what Al said.

I´ve not seen any polls from other countries, surveying under-30's - but it's probably one of the highest rates. What about Poland ? Maybe they could approach 60% for Center-Right as well ?

Interesting breakdown of the poll: Voters over 50 are most likely to back the Government (SPÖVP) with 38% backing the SPÖ and 34% backing the ÖVP (probably because these 2 parties are responsible for their retirement money ;) ).

The overall results for all age groups: SPÖ 30%, ÖVP 26%, FPÖ 21%

More details later when the IMAS report is posted on their site ...


In the last Parliamentary Elections in October 2008, turnout among under-30s was about the same as for the overall population (~80%). Voting participation and engagement of young Austrians is very high, that's why the voting age was lowered to 16, partly because of the lobbying of youth groups.


I´m also inclined to say that most young voters here are just disillusioned with the SPÖ-ÖVP coalition, which is not proposing much for young voters - rather than being really far-right. People like H.C. Strache (FPÖ) have a much easier time in convincing younger voters, because Strache is actually campaigning in bars and discos, voicing concern about youth problems and providing a younger capaign team than either SPÖ or ÖVP.

Latest federal Market poll for the newspaper Der Standard:

SPÖ: 31%
ÖVP: 29%
FPÖ: 22%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 7%
Others: 2%

http://derstandard.at/?url=/?id=1237228052682

BTW:

The new BZÖ-ÖVP coalition in Carinthia was announced today and will be sworn in on March 31.

Latest EU Parliament poll for Austria by Market/derStandard:

SPÖ: 30%
ÖVP: 29%
FPÖ: 15%
Greens: 9%
Martin: 8%
BZÖ: 6%
Others (Libertas, KPÖ, etc.): 3%

Today, the 2 coalition parties SPÖVP have announced their frontrunners for the EU elections:

SPÖ: Hannes Swoboda
ÖVP: Ernst Strasser

Also:

Greens: Ulrike Lunacek
FPÖ: Andreas Mölzer
BZÖ: Ewald Stadler

H.P. Martin will decide in April if he runs again.

New Gallup/Ö24 poll for the EU Parliament Elections:

SPÖ: 30-32%
ÖVP: 29-31%
FPÖ: 15-17%
Greens: 9-11%
Martin: 7-9%
BZÖ: 4-6%

66% of those polled said that they will vote in the June 7 elections, 22% won't.

Under-30-year-olds and Greens are most likely to vote (70% vs. 91%), while only 61% of BZÖ voters said that they are voting.

PS: Turnout in the 2004 EU Parliament Elections was only 42%.

http://www.oe24.at/welt/weltpolitik/66_wollen_zur_EU-Wahl_gehen_0445131.ece

Hopefully, FPÖ+BZÖ voters really stay at home.

This might explain why the Center-Left does really well in European Election polls here, compared with recent national election results.

SPÖ+Greens+Martin = 49%
ÖVP+FPÖ+BZÖ = 51%

Recent National Elections:

Center-Left = 43%
Center-Right = 57%

Latest SORA poll for the Upper Austria state elections in the fall:

ÖVP: 41%
SPÖ: 32%
FPÖ: 13%
Greens: 10%
BZÖ: 4%

Euro polls are surprisingly weak for the far right. I'm guessing most of the Martin voters are FPO/BZO types despite Martin's own moderation?

Also, is the LIF running? As I recall, they have an MEP who defected from Martin's List.

I think it's more the fact that FPÖ/BZÖ voters are not coming out in numbers like they would in federal elections. They don't like to vote for something they hate. Take my parents for example: They nearly always vote in federal elections, but won't vote in the EU elections. My mum even asked me: "Why should I vote for this circus ? I'd go voting if I could vote for the exit of Austria from the EU." ;)

On the other hand I think Martin benefits from all parties. Remember that Martin got 14% last time and is now polling far below that number. People who want to vote for FPÖ/BZÖ are also voting that way. But some may sure see Martin as a protest vote and don#t want to support the Far-Right either. But there are no reliable polls to support this.

The LIF won't run, nor will MEP Karin Resetarits, Martin's former colleague (now in the Liberal Fraction), except Libertas convinces her to run.

Your mother is a very sensible person, Tender. I share her feelings--though I'll vote for Libertas if they field a list here.

New federal poll by Public Opinion Strategies/Peter Hayek (1004 Austrians 16+, MoE=3.1%):

SPÖ: 32%
ÖVP: 30%
FPÖ: 21%
Greens: 10%
BZÖ: 6%
Others: 1%

New EU Parliament poll by Public Opinion Strategies/Peter Hayek (1004 Austrians 16+, MoE=3.1%):

ÖVP: 33%
SPÖ: 31%
Martin: 10%
FPÖ: 10%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 4%
Others: 3%

New Ö24/Gallup poll for the EU Parliament Elections:

SPÖ: 31-33%
ÖVP: 30-32%
FPÖ: 15-17%
Greens: 8-10%
Martin: 6-8%
BZÖ: 3-5%
Libertas: 0-2%

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/SPOe_bei_Europawahl_knapp_vor_OeVP_0448376.ece

Meanwhile, Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann (SPÖ) has invited Obama to visit Austria.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Faymann_hat_Obama_eingeladen_0448380.ece

There's also a new poll about the 2010 Presidential Elections, again by Ö24/Gallup:

Austria's President Heinz Fischer (SPÖ) currently enjoys a 84% approval rating and would defeat conservative candidate Erwin Pröll (ÖVP), Governor of Lower Austria, by 67-18.

79% of Austrians would like to see Fischer running for a second term. He'll decide later in the summer if he will ...

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Fischer_entscheidet_nach_dem_Sommer_0448359.ece

New Profil/Gallup poll on E-Voting in Austria:

51% favor the introduction of E-Voting
34% are against
15% are undecided

SPÖ/FPÖ/BZÖ are against the introduction, Greens are strongly against.

Only the ÖVP is for it.

I´m also strongly against it.

Latest federal poll by Gallup/Ö24:

SPÖ: 34%
ÖVP: 33%
FPÖ: 18%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 6%

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Proell_und_Schmied_stuerzen_kraeftig_ab_0451027.ece

Latest Upper Austria poll by Market for the fall state elections:

ÖVP: 42% (-1.4 compared with 2003)
SPÖ: 32% (-6.3)
FPÖ: 14% (+5.6)
Greens: 9% (-0.1)
BZÖ: 3% (+3.0)

Hypothetical direct vote for state governor:

Incumbent Gov. Josef Pühringer (ÖVP) - 67%
Erich Haider (SPÖ) - 15% (not related with Jörg Haider)

Governor Pühringer has a 73% job approval rating according to this poll.

http://www.rundschau.co.at/rsooe/home/story.csp?cid=6522593&sid=75&fid=55

The new (old) SPÖVP coalition in Salzburg was finalized and announced today.

Gabriele Burgstaller (SPÖ) will remain the Governor of my state.

(A few weeks ago it almost looked like the ÖVP might enter a coalition with the FPÖ ...)

http://derstandard.at/?url=/?id=1237229916368

Latest federal poll by OGM for the weekly News:

SPÖ: 31%
ÖVP: 30%
FPÖ: 22%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 6%
Others: 2%

http://www.news.at/articles/0916/10/239321/news-ogm-umfrage-proell-faymann-kanzler-direkt-wahlfrage

Latest EU parliament poll by OGM for the weekly News:

ÖVP: 32%
SPÖ: 30%
FPÖ: 17%
Greens: 9%
Martin: 6%
BZÖ: 5%
Others: 1%

http://www.news.at/articles/0916/10/239322/enges-match-1-platz-eu-wahl-oevp-umfrage-spoe-front

New Berndt poll for the Vorarlberg state elections in the fall:

ÖVP: 48% (-7 compared with 2004)
FPÖ: 16% (+3)
SPÖ: 15% (-2)
Greens: 13% (+3)
BZÖ: 3% (+3)
Others: 5% (nc)

There's also a new OGM approval ratings poll for the Vienna "state" elections 2010 out:

Mayor Michael Häupl (SPÖ) has a 67-30 approval rating.

Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ), who wants to become mayor (LOL !) has a 30-64 rating. The FPÖ won't get more than 30% in the elections, it's their absolute maximum. The SPÖ meanwhile will not drop below 40% ...

Johannes Hahn (ÖVP leader) has a 45-29 rating.

Maria Vassilakou (Green leader) has a 25-29 rating.

I´m really looking forward to any actual poll in party voting intentions.

The results of the 2005 Vienna "state" elections:

SPÖ: 49.1%
ÖVP: 18.8%
FPÖ: 14.8%
Greens: 14.6%
KPÖ: 1.5%
BZÖ: 1.2%

New Profil/OGM federal elections poll:

SPÖ: 33%
ÖVP: 30%
FPÖ: 21%
Grüne: 9%
BZÖ: 6%
Others: 1%

On April 29, the Wahlkabine will be online again with questions for the EU parliamentary elections. It will be in English for the first time ever.

http://www.wahlkabine.at

BREAKING NEWS !

The first poll so far by IMAS for the battle of Vienna next year was released in today's "Krone".

If the Vienna state (city) elections were held today:

SPÖ: 42% (-7 compared with 2005)
FPÖ: 26% (+11)
ÖVP: 18% (-1)
Greens: 13% (-2)
BZÖ: 1% (nc)

Who Vienna voters want as their Mayor:

Incumbent Mayor Michael Häupl (SPÖ): 45%
Johannes Hahn (ÖVP): 13%
Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ): 10%
Maria Vassilakou (Greens): 5%
Neither/Other/Undecided: 27%

http://www.krone.at/krone/S150/object_id__143285/hxcms/index.html

That's a big blow for Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ) who wants to become mayor of Vienna, saying how rotten Vienna is under Mayor Häupl. Strache wants to deport criminal and unemployed foreigners from Vienna and install vigilante groups to patrol the streets of Vienna so they can stop criminal foreigners ...

2010 looks much like a 1996 re-run, allthough you should always add about 1-3% to the FPÖ's standing in the polls and subtract 1-3% from the SPÖ, because the FPÖ usually underpolls before the election and the SPÖ overpolls:

http://www.wien.gv.at/statistik/daten/pdf/grstimmenanteil.pdf

I think it's very unlikely that the Vienna-SPÖ will ever get below 35% and the FPÖ above 30%.

Is it just me, or is it pretty damn frightening to see the ÖVP under the FPÖ?...

It is pretty damn frightening to see the Center-Right at 45% in the City ...

Anyway, new Profil/Karmasin parliamentary poll:

SPÖ: 33%
ÖVP: 31%
FPÖ: 20%
Grüne: 9%
BZÖ: 6%
Others: 1%

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung.php?schluessel=OTS_20090516_OTS0004&ch=medien

Also: The Austrian Grand Coalition (SPÖVP) has agreed on introducing a Civil Union law in the fall, which will take effect on Jan. 1, 2010.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung.php?schluessel=OTS_20090516_OTS0006&ch=politik

A general overview of what's going on here. Sadly, the political debate in Austria prior to the EU elections is not about Europe, but about the increasing Anti-Semitism amongst Austrians:

Last week, five 14 to 16-year olds dressed as Nazis disrupted the liberation ceremony of the former KZ Ebensee in Upper Austria, shouting "Heil Hitler" at survivors of the camp and even shooting at them with softguns.

This led to an outcry of SPÖ, ÖVP and Green members, while H.C. Strache of the FPÖ played it down as "actions by silly boys".

But the problem is a deeper one: More stories surfaced, a class from Vienna recently travelled to Auschwitz and students attacked visitors there with nazi-slogans and a hotel owner in Tyrol refused to accept Jewish hotel guests. Then David Duke, the US-racist I met on Monday (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=96000.0), was hiding in Salzburg after being thrown out of the Czech Republic.

Then a study was released that showed that almost 40% of 16-18 year olds voted for the Far-Right in last years parliamentary elections, far higher than the 28% they got among all voters. The SORA study indicated increasing distrust of youngsters with the established parties (SPÖVP) and an increasing need of a "Führer"-personality. They teenagers polled didn't think of the FPÖ as a far-right party anymore, but a mainstream party.

Then, yesterday, Strache was elected with 97.2% of all delegates for another term as FPÖ-leader at the convention in Linz. Strache also attacked Vienna Mayor Michael Häupl (Social Democrats) as incompetent. It's no secret that Strache wants to become mayor of Vienna. Then the FPÖ attacked lesbian Green MEP-candidate Ulrike Lunacek as a "feminst Kampflesbe (fight lesbian)", digging even deeper in the mudd.

Then in todays Krone tabloid, the FPÖ ran ads strongly opposing Turkey's and Israel's entry into the EU. They also wanted Ariel Muzicant, the president of the Austrian Jewish Council to step down, because he referred to FPÖ-General Secretary Herbert Kickl as Joseph Goebbels, the Nazi-propaganda minister.

Just a few hours ago, Chancellor Werner Faymann (SPÖ) launched a massive attack against Strache and his FPÖ, saying that "Strache is a hatepreacher and fearmonger. Strache is not an idol, Strache is a disgrace." He also said that more history and anti-fa education is necessary for Austrian students to avoid the incident that happened in Ebensee. "Ebensee is not a trivial offense" he said.

Also, foreign minister Michael Spindelegger (ÖVP) critizized Strache: "Strache is agitating people against each other. We have 400.000 Muslims in Austria and we don't need these kinds of prejudices."

http://derstandard.at/?url=/?id=1242316025494

...

Good, my opinion of Werner Faymann has just gone up quite a bit. The sad thing is that despite the attacks by the Left, we can expect Strache and the FPÖ to gain and not to lose in the coming months ...

Austria is pretty f**ked....frankly. Those numbers scare me.

The polls are following suit to affirm my point:

Latest OGM/News poll released today, conducted in the last few days among 800 Austrians:

SPÖ: 31%
ÖVP: 29%
FPÖ: 22%
Greens: 10%
BZÖ: 6%
Others: 2%

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung.php?schluessel=OTS_20090519_OTS0169&ch=politik

New fodder for the Rightwingers (FPÖ) after a group of Indians tried to kill each other in a Vienna temple after a visit by an Indian guru.

After the Muslims, Turks and the Israelis, the Rightwingers have now a new scapegoat: the Indians.

Only an hour after the news, the FPÖ blamed the SPÖ and Greens for the incident. Their multicultural policies would allow such incidents to take place.

http://www.euronews.net/2009/05/24/sikh-temple-feud-leaves-greater-thangreater-than-injured-in-austria/

New poll for the September 20 Vorarlberg State Elections:

ÖVP: 47% (-8 compared with '04 elections)
FPÖ: 17% (+4)
SPÖ: 14% (-3)
Greens: 12% (+2)
BZÖ: 5% (+5)
Others: 5% (nc)

That means that the current ÖVP/FPÖ coalition in the westernmost Austrian state will continue.

Why did the ÖVP need a coalition partner in Voralburg if they won 55% of the vote in the last state election?  Did they fail to win a majority of seats (or was their majority narrower than their popular vote majority and narrow enough that a coalition partner was necessary for the government to have a reasonable hope of completing its term)?  Or did the coalition only after defections from the ÖVP brought them either under a majority or to a very narrow majority?

Tradition and a good working climate I guess. The ÖVP would have had an absolute majority, but the FPÖ has been the junior coalition partner of the state ÖVP since at least 1974. Vorarlberg is the most right-wing state in Austria, the Center-Right has never gone below 60% since WW2 and now they are at 70% again.

Latest Burgenland state elections poll (GMK, May 25-27):

SPÖ: 47% (-5)
ÖVP: 34% (-2)
FPÖ: 12% (+6)
Greens: 4% (-1)
BZÖ: 2% (+2)
FBL: 1% (+1)

Governor Hans Niessl (SPÖ) has a 73% approval rating.

Polls are open in Austria and they will close at 5pm local time with Exit polls following suit.

It's very bad weather here. Cold, about 5-10°C and raining. Expect turnout to be somewhere around 30-40%, with heavy gains for FPÖ/BZÖ.

My predictions for Austria:

ÖVP: 27.2% (-5.5) - 5 seats
SPÖ: 26.6% (-6.7) - 4 seats
FPÖ: 17.8% (+11.5) - 3 seats
Martin: 14.2% (+0.2) - 2 seats
Greens: 7.9% (-5.0) - 2 seats
BZÖ: 5.6% (+5.6) - 1 seat
KPÖ: 0.5% (-0.3)
Julis: 0.2% (+0.2)

6.362.526 people are eligible to vote. I´ll vote for the Greens.

Official results will be released here at 10pm, when the polls are closed in all countries.

http://wahl09.bmi.gv.at

At 10am, turnout in Vienna was 8.10% (2004: 8.17%)

Probably 30-35% final turnout for the city.

Turnout for Austria should then be 35-40%, probably more on the lower end.

At 12:30, turnout in the state of Styria was 37.97% (-1.23%).

42 of 96 cities in the state of Vorarlberg are already counted:

ÖVP: 54.7% (-4.7)
Martin: 17.0% (+2.4)
FPÖ: 8.6% (+1.8 )
Greens: 8.0% (-1.9)
SPÖ: 6.4% (-2.6)
BZÖ: 4.8% (+4.8 )
Others: 0.5%

http://www.vol.at/news/vorarlberg/artikel/starkes-martin-ergebnis-nach-wahlende-in-vorarlberg/cn/news-20090607-01475368

Turnout in Vienna at 27% (2pm).

That's 1% higher than in 2004.

Austria Exit Poll:

ÖVP: 29.9%
SPÖ: 23.4%
Martin: 18.2%
FPÖ: 13.0%
Greens: 9.4%
BZÖ: 4.8%

2nd SORA Exit Poll:

ÖVP: 29.6% (-3.1)
SPÖ: 23.7% (-9.6)
Martin: 18.0% (+4.0)
FPÖ: 13.4% (+7.1)
Greens: 9.5% (-3.4)
BZÖ: 4.7% (+4.7)
Others: 1.1% (+0.3)

ÖVP: 6 seats (nc)
SPÖ: 5 seats (-2)
Martin: 3 seats (+1)
FPÖ: 2 seats (+1)
Greens: 1 seat (-1)

Worst federal result for the Social Democrats since WW2.

Those numbers are pretty good.

Yes. Good to see that the Far-Right failed.

Btw, turnout was 42% (no change compared with 2004).

Updated Exit Poll and Seat Projection by SORA:

()

()

Results of the 9 Austrian States:

()

Party majority in districts

()

MEP Herbert Bösch (SPÖ) calls for Chancellor Werner Faymann (SPÖ) to resign, after the SPÖ lost almost 10% and got the worst result since WW2.

Wow !

Meanwhile, turnout was 42.42% (with all votes except the postal votes counted), compared with 42.43% in 2004. Once the postal votes are counted, turnout will have increased compared with 2004, making Austria one of the few countries where turnout did not drop further.

The final Austrian result (except postal votes) for every state, electoral district, district and city in PDF and Excel - if anyone is interested in making maps:

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/europawahl/2009/files/Ergebnis_V.pdf

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/europawahl/2009/files/Ergebnis_V.zip

Updated Map of County Winners:

()

The results of Ebensee:

SPÖ: 35.7 (-10.7)
Martin: 20.4 (+5.9)
ÖVP: 19.9 (-3.5)
FPÖ: 10.5 (+7.1)
Greens: 8.3 (-2.8 )
BZÖ: 3.7 (+3.7)
KPÖ: 0.9 (-0.3)
Julis: 0.6 (+0.6)

Compare with Braunau am Inn:

SPÖ: 28.4 (-12.0)
Martin: 19.3 (+3.3)
ÖVP: 18.7 (-1.6)
FPÖ: 16.0 (+7.8 )
Greens: 9.4 (-4.8 )
BZÖ: 6.9 (+6.9)
KPÖ: 0.7 (-0.3)
Julis: 0.6 (+0.6)

The first batch of postal votes have been counted today and the Greens managed to "steal" a seat from the Social Democrats, because they got a higher than normal share among postal votes.

Latest breakdown:

ÖVP: 30.0% (-2.7)
SPÖ: 23.8% (-9.5)
Martin: 17.7% (+3.7)
FPÖ: 12.8% (+6.5)
Greens: 9.7% (-3.2)
BZÖ: 4.6% (+4.6)
Julis: 0.7% (+0.7)
KPÖ: 0.7% (-0.1)

ÖVP: 6 seats (nc)
SPÖ: 4 seats (-3)
Martin: 3 seats (+1)
FPÖ: 2 seats (+1)
Greens: 2 seats (nc)

Turnout: 45.3% (+2.9)

http://wahl09.bmi.gv.at

A map of the Far-Right (FPÖ+BZÖ) by Austrian County:

()

Light Blue (for example in the north of Lower Austria): 10-15%
Middle Blue (mostly in the center, almost all of Styria): 15-20%
The Blue in NW-Upper Austria: 20-25%
The Blue in Southern Carinthia: 25-30%
Dark Blue in Northern Carinthia: 30-35%

The Austrian average was about 17.4%.

Notice how well the Far-Right did in some regions outside of Carinthia, for example in the working class districts of Vienna (North-East and South-East) and in the Braunau region in Upper Austria.

Also notice how bad they were doing in the wealthy southern suburbs of Vienna and most of northern Lower Austria and northern Upper Austria. They also did very badly in my district (Zell am See/Salzburg), because most of their votes were sucked away by Martin, whereas the light area in western Tyrol is because of the ÖVP-strength there.

One thing this election has shown is that the FPÖ won't become the biggst party in next year's Vienna State Elections. Despite losing some 10% city-wide and about 20% in some working-class districts like Simmering, the SPÖ can expect to get a big chunk of this year's Martin voters back. Exit Polls have shown that Martin voters consist mostly of FPÖ voters (43%) and SPÖ voters (28%). I think even under the most optimistic circumstances, the FPÖ won't get more than 26% city-wide, with the SPÖ at about 35%.

Green Party Strength by County:

()

The very definition of an urban/suburban party ...

The first federal poll after the EU elections was released today by Gallup for Ö24:

ÖVP: 31% (+5)
SPÖ: 29% (nc)
FPÖ: 21% (+3)
Greens: 12% (+2)
BZÖ: 6% (-5)
Others: 1% (-5)

Hypothetical direct vote for Chancellor:

Werner Faymann (SPÖ): 37%
Josef Pröll (ÖVP): 36%

54% of all voters say Faymann should remain Chancellor, only 25% say he should resign.

Hans-Peter Martin's share by County in the EP elections:

()

3 visible shades:

lightest: 10-15%
middle: 15-20%
dark: 20-25%

Austrian average: 17.7%

1 almost invisible shade:

If you click to zoom the picture, you will see a very light shade in 3 inner city districts of Vienna. It means 5-10% strength.

SPÖ share by Austrian County in the EP elections:

()

Lightest shade (only 2 counties): 0-10%
Light shade: 10-20%
Medium shade: 20-30%
Dark shade: 30-40%

Finally, the ÖVP strength by Austrian county in the EP elections:

()

5 shades:

Lighest: 10-20%
Light: 20-30%
Medium: 30-40%
Dark: 40-50%
Black (4 counties): 50-60%

Meanwhile the FPÖ has proposed to draft all Austrian women, because otherwise they would be disadvantaged in the preventive medical checkup that is included in the draft.

I think the draft should be abolished alltogether and a voluntary army of about 20.000 should be introduced.

There's also a new book that will be released this week studying the "values" of Austrians over time. The study was conducted in 1990, 1999 and 2008.

Some interesting findings:

Percentage of Austrians who say they would NOT like the following as their neighbours:

Drug addicts: 65% (change compared with '99: +12)
Rightwing-Extremists: 61% (+1)
Drunks: 59% (+6)
Leftwing-Extremists: 48% (-2)
Criminals: 45% (+18)
Mentally unstable persons: 36% (+18)
Roma: 32% (+7)
Muslims: 31% (+16)
People with AIDS: 27% (+10)
Homosexuals: 25% (nc)
Foreigners: 23% (+8)
Blacks: 18% (+11)
Jews: 18% (+10)
People with many children: 15% (+11)

80% think foreigners should adapt to the lifestyle of Austrians.

49% of Austrians think that foreigners should be sent back to their countries of origin in tough economic times, to prevent Austrians from losing their job.

40% think the most important thing children have to learn is obedience.

27% think that where there is strong authority there's also justice.

20% want a "strong leader personality".

6% want the Military to rule the country.

Probably going to buy that book to read more about it, 1500 adult Austrians were questioned in each of the 3 years.

http://derstandard.at/1244460578904/Wertestudie-Studie-Sehnsucht-nach-dem-starken-Mann

Just read a different article about the new book in the newspaper "Die Presse":

The authors found that Austrians are socially conservative, with 52% saying they oppose abortion if the reasons are that the couple does not want "any more kids" or if the mother is single. Support for abortion increases to 70% if the child is likely to have a disability.

A majority is also against adotion of children by gay couples, with almost 70% against in western states like Vorarlberg, Tyrol and Salzburg. Support is highest at 31% in Vienna.

People with children and belief in God and generally people who live in the western states mentioned above are more likely to say they are "happy".

Generally, there's a strong belief that family (96%) and friends (93%) are very important.

Austrian men are working long compared with the rest of Europe (44.3 hours/week), but want to work less to spend more time with the children.

Happyness is also defined by many Austrians by "not living in Vienna".

Sorry, but lol Austria lol.

Final result after all postal votes are counted:

Eligible Voters: 6.362.633
Turnout: 45.97% (+3.54)
Total ballots cast: 2.925.130
Invalid votes: 60.512
Valid votes: 2.864.618

ÖVP: 858.919 votes (29.98%)
SPÖ: 680.041 votes (23.74%)
Martin: 506.092 votes (17.67%)
FPÖ: 364.206 votes (12.71%)
Greens: 284.505 votes (9.93%)
BZÖ: 131.213 votes (4.58%)
JuLis: 20.668 votes (0.72%)
KPÖ: 18.974 votes (0.66%)

ÖVP: 6 seats (Strasser, Karas, Rahner, Seeber, Rübig, Köstinger)
SPÖ: 4 seats (Swoboda, Regner, Leichtfried, Kadenbach)
Martin: 3 seats (Martin, Sabitzer, Ehrenhauser)
FPÖ: 2 seats (Mölzer, Obermayr)
Greens: 2 seats (Lunacek, Lichtenberger)

Map of each Austrian city and it's winner (you can also zoom the map):

Black: ÖVP
SPÖ: Red
Orange: BZÖ
Blue: FPÖ
Green: well ...
Grey: Martin

()

The latest approval ratings for important Austrian politicians by OGM (June 8, MoE = 4.5%):

President Heinz Fischer (SPÖ): 76% Approve, 16% Disapprove

Chancellor Werner Faymann (SPÖ): 53% Approve, 39% Disapprove

Vice-Chancellor Josef Pröll (ÖVP): 60% Approve, 23% Disapprove

Foreign Minister Michael Spindelegger (ÖVP): 33% Approve, 17% Disapprove

President of Parliament Barbara Prammer (SPÖ): 49% Approve, 23% Disapprove

Minister for Economy Reinhold Mitterlehner (ÖVP): 34% Approve, 17% Disapprove

FPÖ-leader Heinz-Christian Strache: 22% Approve, 67% Disapprove

3. Parliament President Martin Graf (FPÖ): 9% Approve, 61% Disapprove

BZÖ-leader Josef Bucher: 14% Approve, 30% Disapprove

Green leader Eva Glawischnig: 33% Approve, 53% Disapprove

http://www.ogm.at/pdfs/BundespolitikerInnen_Juni09_HP.pdf

Latest Fessel-GfK poll for the September Upper Austria State Elections:

ÖVP: 41-42%
SPÖ: 30-32%
FPÖ: 12-14%
Greens: 8-9%
BZÖ: 5-6%

Another election where the Social Democrats will lose almost 8% compared with 2003, and the Far-Right rising to about 20%.

"lol" isn't what comes to mind when I see that.

3 new polls out today (2 new ones and an older one conducted before the EU elections):

Profil/Karmasin:

ÖVP: 32%
SPÖ: 30%
FPÖ: 21%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 6%
Others: 2%

Fessel-Gfk:

ÖVP: 33%
SPÖ: 28%
FPÖ: 20%
Greens: 11%
BZÖ: 6%
Others: 2%

IMAS (older poll):

SPÖ: 28%
ÖVP: 26%
FPÖ: 20%
Greens: 13%
BZÖ: 7%
Others: 6%

There's also news about the April 2010 Austrian Presidential Elections:

Word is that President Heinz Fischer (SPÖ) is personally leaning towards running for re-election, but not his wife Margit. Fischer would be 72 next year and probably his wife would like more time off for private matters with her husband. He'll decide in late summer if he'll run again.

For the ÖVP, popular Lower Austria governor Erwin Pröll is often mentioned as a top candidate, but the party is currenty split between opposing the popular Fischer or running on a SPÖVP fusion ticket. The ÖVP-Governor of Upper Austria has warned Pröll from opposing Fischer, but the Styrian ÖVP-boss has backed a Pröll-candidacy. We'll see later what Pröll does.

The FPÖ has said they will defintely run a candidate (which will not be FPÖ-leader Heinz-Christian Strache, because he will focus on the 2010 Vienna State Elections to become Mayor there). Popular names have been mentioned: Barbara Rosenkranz (FPÖ-leader in Lower Austria), Norbert Steger (Ex-FPÖ Vice Chancellor), Wilhelm Brauneder and Gerulf Stix (former Presidents of the Parliament). Strache said that the FPÖ is likely to back Erwin Pröll in the second round if the FPÖ candidate fails to get there.

The Greens are currently undecided but may run former Green leader Alexander Van der Bellen, who's still a widely popular politician.

The BZÖ wants to abolish the post of Austrian President alltogether, calling it unnecessary and something that a Chancellor could do as well ...

In a poll published today in the newspaper Kleine Zeitung, Fischer (SPÖ) currently leads Pröll (ÖVP) by 56-16.

This is similar to the 67-18 lead in a Gallup/Ö24 poll in April.

The BZÖ says many stupid things, but here they are right. In Germany it's the same. Nobody can explain me why we must have a Federal President. He have nearly nothing to decide. This money we can we use for better things.

Steger is still associated with the FPÖ? How old is he now?

How do you know Steger ?

BTW, he's 65 now. I was somehow shocked that Strache would consider the "liberal" Steger, who was axed by Jörg Haider in the 1986 FPÖ leadership election, as a Presidential candidate for the FPÖ. I'd think Barbara Rosenkranz (housewife with 10 children of Germanic names and married to a Nazi) would be far better fitting for them ...

True, a chancellor could certainly do this stuff too, but I favor keeping it only for the fancy election maps I can create afterwards. And for checks and balances ...

Talking about Austrian Presidential Election Maps. Here's one for the 1992 election between Thomas Klestil (ÖVP) and Rudolf Streicher (SPÖ). Klestil won with 56.9% to 43.1%:

()

Compared with Heinz Fischer (SPÖ - 52.4%) vs. Benita Ferrero-Waldner (ÖVP - 47.6%) in 2004:

()

Next I'll do the 1986 election between Kurt Waldheim (ÖVP - 53.9%) and Kurt Steyrer (SPÖ - 46.1%)

The 1996-Klestil-landslide would probably produce a very boring map ...

Good question. It is an isolated mountainous county with few people and low purchasing power and high unemployment. But so is my county (which is just north to East-Tyrol, just with low unemployment and higher purchasing power) Normally conservative counties tend to have low unemployment but East-Tyrol is crazy. Some towns there only have 100 inhabitants and they are voting with 95% for ÖVP/FPÖ and BZÖ ... :P

How much tourism is there in Osttirol?

It's not bad ...

Osttirol is the 12th-biggest "Tourismusverband" in Tyrol (out of 36) with roughly 900.000 overnight stays in the 2008/09 winter season and roughly 165.000 arrivals.

The biggest tourism region in Tyrol this season was Ötztal with 2.540.000 stays, followed by Ischgl with 2.140.000 stays.

Interestingly, Osttirol had the biggest jump in arrivals (+11%) this season compared with the last.

http://www.tirol.gv.at/themen/zahlen-und-fakten/statistik/tourismusverband

Yeah.

The whole county is roughly looking like this:

()

()

()

I only know him as the one Haider axed (and, I suppose, the last left-liberal left in the FPÖ).

Meanwhile Wilfried Haslauer (ÖVP-leader in Salzburg) has backed a Pröll candidacy too after Styrian ÖVP-leader Schützenhöfer was the first to voice his support. Josef Pühringer (ÖVP-governor in Upper Austria) is now also backing Pröll.

Chancellor Faymann (SPÖ) and Vienna Mayor Häupl (SPÖ) have already said they will strongly back President Fischer if he decides to run. He'll probably declare his re-election campaign on June 5 in "Meet the Press", earlier than was thought before.

Also, Burgenland Governor Hans Niessl (SPÖ) for Fischer's re-election.

Burgenland ÖVP leader Franz Steindl says Pröll is an astonishing personality, but the discussion about the ÖVP candidate is too early.

In Upper Austria, SPÖ-leader Erich Haider (not related with Jörg Haider) has endorsed Fischer for a second term.

Hans Dichand, owner of the tabloid Kronen Zeitung and read by 3 Million Austrians each day, has endorsed Erwin Pröll for President. Normally the Krone is running a strong SPÖ bias.

Interesting stuff:

I created this map of the 1986 Austrian Presidential Election between Kurt Waldheim (ÖVP) and Kurt Steyrer (SPÖ). Waldheim won the election by 53.9 to 46.1, but notice how Carinthia trended away from the SPÖ between 1986 and 2004.

For example, Steyrer got 55.9% in the Villach suburbs (Villach-Land), while Heinz Fischer (SPÖ) got only 51.4% there in 2004, despite winning Austria with 52.4% of the vote.

I'll probably do the first ever trend-map that has been created for Austrian Presidential elections later (1986 vs. 2004, maybe 1992 vs. 2004 too) ... :)

()

6 blue Waldheim shades from 50-80% (5% each)
4 red Steyrer shades from 50-70% (5% each)

Trend by Austrian County between the 1986 Presidential Election and the 2004 Presidential Election (ÖVP-SPÖ Margin Change from Previous Election Relative to National Change):

()

3 Blue shades (trended 0-5%, 5-10%, 10-15% more ÖVP)
4 Red shades (trended 0-5%, 5-10%, 10-15%, 15-20% more SPÖ)

LOL @ Carinthia ! Similar to the Deep South in the US from Democrats to Republicans, it changed from being a Strong-SPÖ state to an ÖVP-state. Expect it to be even bluer in the future ...

Strongly conservative Waldheim counties in '86 are among the hardest SPÖ-trending (notice Vorarlberg and Tyrol and much of Northern Lower Austria as well as south-eastern Styria). Don't know though why the conservative Kitzbühel trended even more sonservative.

The fact that moderately SPÖ-counties are trending to the ÖVP by 0-5% is probably due to the fact that Steyrer was doing relatively well there in '86 and Fischer couldn't do any better there and maxed out (notice Simmering and Favoriten in SW Vienna and Floridsdorf and Donaustadt in North-Vienna).

Salzburg, normally a conservative state like Tyrol and Vorarlberg in Presidential Elections, did not trend SPÖ, mainly because ÖVP-candidate Ferrero-Waldner was born in Salzburg (-> home state effect).

I was just polled by IFES for the 2010 Presidential Election, questions about the economy and the assessment of political leaders. I gave Strache the worst grade possible and said I would vote for Fischer (SPÖ) over Pröll (ÖVP).

IFES does polls for the newspaper "Heute", but they blew the Martin share by 8% in the Euro elections (they said 10%, he got 18%) ...

Why was the SPÖ so strong in Carinthia in the first place?

The ÖVP has always been weak in Carinthia compared with other Austrian states. The FPÖ has been stronger there. It could be that Carinthia was a more industrialized state before the 80's and then changed to a services/tourism state. It also had to do with Leopold Wagner, SPÖ governor from 1974 to 1988, a working class "state father", who attracted many blue-collar FPÖ voters I guess and achieving absolute SPÖ majorities in 3 consecutive elections. And with the rise of Jörg Haider it went all downhill for the state-SPÖ, consolidating the Far-Right side of the FPÖ and attracting many SPÖ voters ...

Damn !

Erwin Pröll is closing the gap with incumbent President Heinz Fischer rather quickly. 2 new polls out today:

Market/Standard:

Fischer (SPÖ): 54%
Pröll (ÖVP): 30%

OGM/News:

Fischer (SPÖ): 53%
Pröll (ÖVP): 30%

That means Pröll has doubled his percentage in the last week, while Fischer's support is down by about 10%. Should be rather interesting, Fischer with 80% approval ratings and on the other side a state governor for 17 years, also with 80%ish approval ratings in a country that is currently about 60-40 Center-Right ...

Fischer could actually lose, if there's a big downward spiral ...

2 new Presidential polls today:

Gallup for Ö24 (June 25 and 26, 1000 Austrians aged 16+)

First round:

Heinz Fischer (SPÖ): 51%
Erwin Pröll (ÖVP): 17%
Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ): 9%
Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens): 8%
Claudia Haider (BZÖ): 5%
Undecided: 10%

Strache has already said he won't run, but I guess the Gallup-people wanted to test the maximum strength of the FPÖ candidate and Strache is the most popular among them.

Run-off:

Fischer (SPÖ): 62%
Pröll (ÖVP): 25%
Undecided: 13%

Fischer Approval Rating:

80% Approve
10% Disapprove

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung.php?schluessel=OTS_20090627_OTS0042&ch=politik

IMAS for the tabloid "Kronen Zeitung"

Fischer (SPÖ): 62%
Pröll (ÖVP): 20%

In the event that Erwin Pröll is elected President in 2010 and his nephew and current Vice-Chancellor Josef Pröll is winning the next Parliamentary elections in 2013 to bceome Chancellor of Austria, would such a reign of family power bother you ?

62% No
30% Yes

How influental would you say are the powers of the President of Austria ?

Influental: 24%
Not Influental: 72%

Also:

Federal Election poll by Gallup for Ö24

ÖVP: 30%
SPÖ: 29%
FPÖ: 23%
Greens: 10%
BZÖ: 6%
Others: 2%

Direct vote for Chancellor:

Josef Pröll (ÖVP): 37%
Werner Faymann (SPÖ): 36%

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung.php?schluessel=OTS_20090627_OTS0040&ch=politik

Another poll I've just found:

"Österreich-Trend" by Peter Hajek for the TV-station ATV (1000 Austrians 16+, June 17-23):

ÖVP: 33%
SPÖ: 28%
FPÖ: 22%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 7%
Others: 1%

Direct vote for Chancellor:

Josef Pröll (ÖVP): 21%
Werner Faymann (SPÖ): 20%

How would you rate the state of Democracy in Austria these days?

49% Very Good/Good
49% Poor/Very Poor

Do you think there's fairness in Austria these days?

51% Yes
36% No

How would you describe the state of the Austrian economy these days ?

43% Very Good/Good
42% Poor/Very Poor

How would you describe the state of your own financial situation these days ?

81% Very Good/Good
19% Poor/Very Poor

http://www.kleinezeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/2048589/index.do

So, are Josef and Erwin Pröll brothers[no qm on this computer]

No. Erwin is Josef's uncle.

Latest Styria poll by IMAS for todays Kronen Zeitung:

()

With Erwin Pröll getting slaughtered by incumbent President Fischer in the latest polls (see above), the ÖVP is now thinking about running former Styria ÖVP-governor Waltraud Klasnic as a sacrificial lamb against Fischer. Pröll could wait for the open race in 2016 instead (but he would be rather old then). Fischer would eat Klasnic alive I guess, something like 70-30 or 60-40 ...

Latest Tyrol poll by IMAD:

Gov. Günther Platter (ÖVP) Approval Rating: 80%

ÖVP: 46% (+5.5 compared with 2008 state elections)
SPÖ: 18% (+2.5)
Greens: 13% (+2.3)
FPÖ: 11% (-1.4)
Dinkhauser: 8% (-10.4)
Others: 4% (+1.5)

There's also a new Spectra poll out for the September Upper Austria State elections:

ÖVP: 44%
SPÖ: 32%
BZÖ: 3%

The article does not give actual numbers for the FPÖ and the Greens, but it says that the FPÖ is ahead of the Greens, but not by a lot. So I guess with 21% undecided, it's either 12-9 for the FPÖ or 11-10.

Governor Josef Pühringer (ÖVP) has a 85% job approval according to the poll.

If this trend holds, the current ÖVP-Green coalition in the state will probably continue.

He has not announced his plans today, saying it is too early to start the 2010 campaign ...

Of 6 candidates mentioned for the FPÖ, 3 have categorically ruled out a run for President today, while 1 said he might run.

Wilhelm Brauneder: said he might run

Norbert Steger: has said he'll never run for office again
Dieter Böhmdorfer: has said no to a candidacy
Reinhart Waneck: has said his wife would divorce him if he went back to politics

Barbara Rpsenkranz: no word so far
Norbert Gugerbauer: the same

Latest federal Market poll for the newspaper "Standard":

ÖVP: 30% (+4)
SPÖ: 26% (-3)
FPÖ: 25% (+7)
Greens: 10% (nc)
BZÖ: 6% (-5)
Others: 3% (-3)

The combined Far-Right would be the strongest party in Austria right now ... :(

http://derstandard.at/fs/1246542007095/Umfrage-FPOe-schon-knapp-hinter-Kanzlerpartei-SPOe

There's also a new Presidential Gallup poll for Ö24:

Heinz Fischer (SPÖ-Inc.): 65%
Erwin Pröll (ÖVP): 25%

Pretty impressive, considering that Austria is now 61-36 center-right ...

Calls within the ÖVP (especially the circle around former Chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel) are increasing that former Styria Governor - Waltraud Klasnic - should run instead of Pröll.

With her as a candidate, I guess Fischer could even win in the first round ...

Please don't say that. The ÖVP is the only center-right party.

Perhaps "right of center" should be used instead of center-right.  Or perhaps "right" would cover both center-right and far right.

"Right" works just fine.

Big trouble for the (almost non-existing) Tyrolian BZÖ:

Party chair Gerhard Huber had an affair with an asylum seeker from Georgia and was blackmailed by a guy who knew about it in February. He asked some friends via telephone to "make sure this guy gets into hospital for 2 weeks or get rid of him alltogether" and to "silence his Georgian friend", because she wanted to tell Huber's wife about the affair. The police is now investigating the allegations. Huber says its a conspiracy against him.

After the charges were made public, almost all members of the Tyrol-BZÖ withdrew from the party and announced the creation of the "Christian Civil Union" (CBU).

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/496101/index.do?from=gl.home_politik

Did any MPs join?

The story is roughly 2 hours old, I let you know if they do ...

So - did anybody act on Huber's suggestions?

That's not clear yet.

Allthough Huber has filed charges against one of his former aides, who accused him of the murder for hire. Then the aide filed against Huber ... and so on.

Interesting stuff going on here in the last few days:

It has been revealed that the Austrian Federal Financing Agency (ÖBFA) has lost 600 Mio. € in taxpayer money due to speculative investments. The ÖBFA belongs to the Finance Ministry of Josef Pröll (ÖVP), who is also the Vice-Chancellor of Austria. This is a huge problem for the ÖVP, because they always bragged about being the "party who can best manage the economy and taxes". Chancellor Faymann quickly jumped on the ÖVP and demanded a parliamentary inquiry in the mess. 81% of Austrians back Faymann on this, according to the new IFES poll below. 83% oppose speculative investments of taxpayer money in general. 60% think this scandal is bad for the ÖVP, 27% don't. Pröll even lied to parliament earlier this year that there were no tax money losses due to speculations, even though the Audit Office (RH) had a report on it out in autumn of 2008 ...

President Fischer has also demanded an end to these speculations, saying that the "neoliberal philosophy" must be abandoned alltogether. The human being has to be most important, not the profit.

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/497487/index.do

Article:

http://www.wienerzeitung.at/DesktopDefault.aspx?TabID=4082&Alias=wzo&cob=426463

Meanwhile the ÖVP, who was leading the SPÖ after their devastating EU election result by up to 5%, has fallen back again in the polls. Here's the latest IFES poll:

SPÖ: 30%
ÖVP: 29%
FPÖ: 17%
Greens: 15%
BZÖ: 5%
Others: 4%

Very strong showing by the Greens, who attacked the ÖVP too and used to poll only 8-11% just until recently.

Article:

http://www.wienerzeitung.at/DesktopDefault.aspx?TabID=3858&Alias=wzo&cob=427148

Austrian President Heinz Fischer has denounced the speculative use of tax-payers’ money as Chancellor Werner Faymann called a "speculation summit" for the end of the month on the issue.

He said: "There should be absolutely no speculation with tax-payers’ money. I understand that state money sometimes needs to be invested because it is more reasonable to invest it than to leave it in a cash account. The decisive question is where the border between speculation and investment is."

As for claims speculation could lead to big profits, Fischer said: "The danger of big losses increases when the chances of making a big profit increase in an unreasonable manner."

Fischer, speaking in interview in a number of media, said the experience of the last 15 years during which efforts to make big, fast profits had increased had left him feeling uneasy.

"I have never had a fetish for privatisation as many privatisations are reasonable. But I have never agreed with those who say, ‘More privatisation, less state.’ It is a mistake to give profit priority over everything else and to look at labour as only a cost factor. It is necessary to rethink neo-liberal philosophy," the president said.

Social Democratic (SPÖ) Chancellor Werner Faymann is also worried about speculation involving state money.

Faymann has called a "speculation summit" on 31 July for discussion of ways to prevent such speculation. He has invited People’s Party (ÖVP) Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Josef Pröll, Audit Office (RH) President Josef Moser, National Bank (OeNB) Governor Ewald Nowotny, Financial Market Supervisory Authority chief Helmut Ettl and SPÖ State Secretary for Finance Josef Ostermayer to attend.

Faymann said during a radio interview yesterday (Weds) that it was not the government’s job to take unnecessary risks at tax-payers’ expense. He said the summit would examine "how we can say to the people that we will take the right steps to prevent repetition of speculation with state money."

The summit comes after the recent revelation by the Audit Office that the Federal Financing Agency (ÖBFA) had lost more than 600 million Euros in speculative investments over the last few years.

RH said in its report last week ÖBFA had invested state funds in so-called US "asset-backed commercial paper" based on sub-prime mortgages that had later plummeted in value. RH claimed losses from such investments alone had resulted in a loss of at least 380 million Euros by the end of last year.

Pröll promised earlier in the week "to optimise" ÖBFA’s risk management.

He and other recent finance ministers have been heavily criticised for their alleged tolerance of speculative investments by ÖBFA - which handles the Austrian state’s debt and investments and falls under the competence of the finance ministry.

Pröll also promised to create a committee of experts to come up with new guidelines for future ÖBFA investment. Weaknesses identified by RH, Pröll said, would be "relentlessly dealt with."

http://austriantimes.at/news/General_News/2009-07-23/14944/President_denounces_speculation_using_tax-payers%92_money

Other news:

Fischer would run as independent

"Austrian president Heinz Fischer has said he will stand as an independent candidate if he decides to run in next year’s elections. He was elected in 2004 after beating Benita Ferrero-Waldner. He had been nominated by the SPÖ at the time. His term ends next year and speculation has been growing over whether the 71-year-old will run for a second term. Fischer’s announcement has been seen by observers as an attempt to win over undecided voters who do not support the SPÖ. He recently said he was "happy” with his job, adding he would announce his decision in autumn to avoid a long campaign."

http://www.wienerzeitung.at/DesktopDefault.aspx?TabID=4082&Alias=WZO&cob=427199

After the IFES poll (SPÖ-bias), which had the SPÖ overtaking the ÖVP for the first time since the EU elections (see above posts), the ÖVP is out with a new Fessel-GfK poll (ÖVP-bias):

()

The left column shows which party is the most competent in managing the economic crisis, the right shows the current voting intentions.

It's time for an independent institute to show who's really ahead ...

FPÖ falling back slightly?

Not really. It's more the BZÖ that is going down.

Notice that the previous Market poll, which had the FPÖ at 25% and the BZÖ at 6%, was conducted for the left-wing Standard newspaper, which probably publishes polls that are a bit too hysterical and to get headlines and publicity. 19% for the FPÖ seems about right though.

VIENNA (AFP)--A senior Austrian far-right lawmaker was under fire Monday after calling for a referendum in an Italian region to decide whether it should unite with Austria.

Martin Graf, third vice-president in the Austrian parliament, had called in for a vote in South Tyrol to let its inhabitants decide whether it should belong to Italy or Austria.

"Whoever believes he can solve tomorrow's problems with yesterday's ideas is mistaken," said Austrian Foreign Minister Michael Spindelegger, of Austria's conservative People's Party, cited by local media.

Spindelegger repeated an earlier call for Graf, of the far-right Freedom Party, to resign.

South Tyrol, in northern Italy, was originally a German-speaking area and part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

It was annexed by Italy after World War I and German and Italian are now both official languages.

The Social Democrats, the center-left partners of the People's Party in Austria's ruling coalition, backed the calls for Graf's resignation.

The president of South Tyrol Luis Durnwalder accused Graf of behaving irresponsibly.

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=200907271002dowjonesdjonline000339&title=austrian-politician-stirs-anger-with-call-for-s-tyrol-vote

Hypocritical as they are, SPÖVP is demanding Graf to step down, yet in Parliament - where they'd have the power to destroy Graf's career, they do nothing. They only "sane" party, opposed to Graf from the start, are the Greens ...

Not much needs to be said about this nazi @ss Graf, he's the Michele Bachmann or Sarah Palin of Austria ...

Why shouldn't the South Tyrol be granted self-determination?

Because they already have a far-reaching autonomy statute and the status-quo is perfectly fine.

Second, most South Tyrolians want to stay with Italy - according to recent polls.

Plus: The 3 South Tyrolian "Pro-Unification with Austria" Parties got only 22% together.

Currently I'd say it's:

40% Stay with Italy
35% Independent Country
25% Unification with Austria

South Tyrolian Gov. Luis Durnwalder (SVP) has also rejected Graf's idea about a referendum, but has also acknowledged that if the "referendum would be held in 6 months", there would probably be a majority in favor of unification with Austria after an intensive campaign.

Allthough if people there would be asked right away, people would favor the status quo he said, because people are happy with how things are going at the moment. South Tyrol is the richest region of Italy (131% of Italy's GDP/capita) and has the lowest unemployment in all of Italy (2% compared with 8% in Italy).

Plus: Austria's map would look awkward if South Tyrol is unified with the homeland.

Plus: The ÖVP would be the strongest party in almost all Austrian federal elections, because South Tyrol is a hardcore rightwing state (80% for the Center-Right in the last state elections in 2008).

;)

The SVP leans centre-right but it's a big tent party for the vast majority of Germans. The only people who vote for the left are Italians.

It's hard to say what percentage of the SVP would actually vote for Austria after an intensive campaign.

Yesterday, Gov. Durnwalder (SVP)  said in the Austrian TV show "ZIB2", that if a referendum would be held, he would vote for Austria himself.

I guess many of the SVP voters would follow suit, because Durnwalder remains highly popular in South Tyrol.

http://www.heute.at/news/politik/Suedtiroler-LH-Waere-fuer-Oesterreich;art422,83323

A referendum, how dare he! Fascist!

Didn't he listen to Javier Solana saying referendums are undemocratic?

First independent Gallup poll for Ö24, after the investment-scandal:

ÖVP: 32%
SPÖ: 30%
FPÖ: 18%
Greens: 13%
BZÖ: 5%
Others: 2%

Latest Market poll for the newspaper "Der Standard":

ÖVP: 32%
SPÖ: 27%
FPÖ: 22%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 7%
Others: 3%

New SORA poll for the Sept. 27 Upper Austria State Election:

()

(numbers in grey = 2003 state election results)

Majority for the current ÖVP-Green government.

2 new federal polls out today:

Karmasin/Profil:

ÖVP: 31%
SPÖ: 31%
FPÖ: 21%
Greens: 10%
BZÖ: 6%
Others: 1%

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20090808_OTS0004

Gallup/Ö24:

ÖVP: 33%
SPÖ: 30%
FPÖ: 18%
Greens: 12%
BZÖ: 6%
Others: 1%

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20090808_OTS0015

Latest Gallup/Ö24 poll for the 2010 Presidential Elections:

Heinz Fischer (SPÖ/IND): 50%
Erwin Pröll (ÖVP): 24%
Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens): 8%
Claudia Haider (BZÖ): 4%
Martin Graf (FPÖ): 3%

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Hartes-Match-ums-erste-Amt-0510030.ece

FPÖ-leader H.C. Strache has already said that active politicians like Graf won't run and that he wants a more liberal, popular, experienced and (uncontroversial) retired politician like Siegfried Dillersberger to run, who was Mayor of the Tyrolian city of Kufstein in the 70s and 80s, member of the Tyrolian state parliament, an Austrian MP in the 80s and 3rd Parliamentary President in 1990.

Currently, 32% of FPÖ-voters are supporting President Fischer for re-election.

'Racist' NVP out of September vote

Far-right party excluded from Upper Austrian elections.

Linz - Upper Austrian provincial election authorities excluded the National People’s Party (NVP) from running a list in the 27 September provincial election after it was labelled "xenophobic and racist”. There had been outrage among locals after the NVP, which the Documentation Archive of the Austrian Resistance (DÖW) says is an extreme rightwing party, applied to run a list only in electoral district one (Linz and Suburbs). Two previously planned NVP events, including a demonstration in Adolf Hitler’s birthplace Braunau in April, had already been banned by local authorities. The ÖVP, the SPÖ, the Greens, the FPÖ, the BZÖ, the KPÖ and The Christians will take part in the elections. The ÖVP won the last Upper Austrian election in 2003 with 43.42 per cent of the vote. It then formed Austria’s first ÖVP-Green provincial coalition govern-ment.

http://www.wienerzeitung.at/DesktopDefault.aspx?TabID=4082&Alias=wzo&cob=431020

:) :) :)

New OGM Trust Index for the Sept. 20 Vorarlberg State elections:

()

It is showing the saldo of "having trust" and "having no trust" in various state politicians.

The 63-rating for Gov. Sausgruber (ÖVP) means that he has roughly 80% trust (approval).

There's also a new coalition that will participate in the elections: The Gsiberger Party.

It consists of the VAU of Bernhard Amann (who got 2% in 2004), the KPÖ, a local migrant party (the NBZ), as well as other members of minority groups such as gays/lesbians/disabled people and feminists). They hope that they can get roughly 7% of the vote.

Current polls show the following:

ÖVP: 45-50%
FPÖ: 15-20%
SPÖ: ~15%
Greens: 10-15%
BZÖ: ~5%

For the German speakers, the Wahlkabinen for the Upper Austria and Vorarlberg state elections are online:

http://wahlkabine.at/app/ltw2009ooe?app_start=1

http://wahlkabine.at/app/ltw2009vbg?app_start=1

My result:

Upper Austria

KPÖ   191
Green   154
SPÖ   144
BZÖ   4
FPÖ   -90
ÖVP   -140

Vorarlberg

Gsiberger   269
Green   233
SPÖ   182
BZÖ   77
FPÖ   -60
ÖVP   -78

Tender can you say me more about Gsiberger. I never heard about this Person

I don't know more about them, except that this Bernhard Amann guy is a streetworker.

My result:

Upper Austria

ÖVP 50
FPÖ 20
Grüne -5
BZÖ -20
SPÖ -45
KPÖ -50

Vorarlberg

ÖVP 155
FPÖ 45
BZÖ 20
SPÖ -20
Gsiberger -65
Grüne -75

What does "Gsiberger" mean? Is it a nickname for people from Vorarlberg?

Yeah, they have a Swiss dialect.

Today, Claudia Haider said that she will not run in the presidential election next year, leaving the BZÖ without a candidate.

http://www.kleinezeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/2103374/claudia-haider-kandidiert-nicht-fuer-praesidentenamt.story

Latest Gallup poll for Ö24:

ÖVP: 33%
SPÖ: 30%
FPÖ: 17%
Grüne: 13%
BZÖ: 6%
Others: 1%

SPÖVP-Coalition Job Approval Rating:

43% Approve
54% Disapprove

Direct Vote for Chancellor:

Josef Pröll (ÖVP): 36%
Werner Faymann (SPÖ): 35%

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Mehrheit-ist-mit-Koalition-unzufrieden-0518189.ece

The FPÖ-Vorarlberg is gearing up their radical anti-semitic hate campaign:

At their campaign start in Hohenems on Friday, front-runner Dieter Egger referred to the director of the Jewish Museum in Hohenems as "Exile Jew from America, who shouldn't interfere in state politics" (the director is actually from Frankfurt, Germany).

()

He also said that Muslims have bred heavily during the past 30 years and increased by 530% so that the "heimische Jugend" (native Austrian Youth) will "soon feel foreign in their own homeland".

The "muslim immigration from Anatolia (Turkey) has to stop and criminal foreigners should be kicked out of Austria immediately".

Foreigners who don't assimilate with Austrian culture and lifestyle should be kicked out of school and out of the country.

...

Meanwhile all parties (except the BZÖ) have demanded an apology from Egger and the ÖVP has said it will rule out a coalition with the FPÖ if Egger doesn't back down.

The FPÖ is the traditionial coalition partner of the ÖVP in Vorarlberg, but it remains to be seen if the ÖVP will achieve an absolute majority again.

How will the BZÖ respond? Is it an irrelevant joke in Vorarlberg?

They don't respond ... :P

(and I doubt they will get more than the 5%, which is the treshold for state parliament, but if they do probably because of Egger's comments that could piss off some FPÖ-voters, who are switching to the BZÖ, because the ÖVP is too centrist/liberal for them)

BTW, Egger was invited to the evening news of the local ORF yesterday and he refused to apologize for his comments. He said the FPÖ won't be blackmailed by leftist demands and accused coalition partner ÖVP to be backing down to these leftist demands. He said he wouldn't mind being kicked out of state government by the ÖVP governor (which is very likely now).

Meh, poll drought. Would be nice if a Vorarlberg or Upper Austria poll comes out soon.

Good God, in 3 weeks there are state elections and the latest Vorarlberg poll is about 3 months old !

Finally something to talk about for the campaign:

SPÖ general scretary Günther Kräuter argued that asylum seekers should enter the Austrian labor market immediately after they have arrived.

In 3 weeks there are state elections and if the SPÖ ever had any chance to gain votes they probably committed suicide now with these comments.

Austrians do not even want asylum seekers in the country, yet in the labor market - where unemployment rose 30% compared with 2008. In Upper Austria, which has the lowest unemployment rate in Austria @ 4%, but where it is rising most compared with 2008 (+50%), SPÖ front-runner Erich Haider is jumping up and down now because of fellow party colleague Kräuter's comments.

FPÖ+BZÖ have immediately called Kräuters proposal "insane" in these hard economic times and even the ÖVP is strongly opposed. Chancellor Faymann (SPÖ) and the Austrian Social Affairs Minister have also opposed Kräuter's idea.

;)

New federal Karmasin/Profil poll:

ÖVP: 32%
SPÖ: 32%
FPÖ: 20%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 6%
Others: 1%

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20090829_OTS0006

Latest Upper Austria poll by Market:

ÖVP: 41% (-2)
SPÖ: 34% (-4)
FPÖ: 13% (+5)
Greens: 9% (nc)
BZÖ: 3% (+3)

Majority for the current ÖVP-Green coalition.

Latest Upper Austria poll:

ÖVP: 43-45%
SPÖ: 32-34%
FPÖ: 9-11%
Greens: 8-9%
BZÖ: 2-3%

3 weeks before the elections and the FPÖ at only 10%, is - well - interesting ...

Austria above the Enns

KPÖ 240
Greens 199
SPÖ 165
BZÖ -68
FPÖ -123
ÖVP -185

Random piece of Habsburg south west German ancestral land

Gsiberger 405
Greens 396
SPÖ 248
BZÖ -22
FPÖ -195
ÖVP -220

I think I ran a little wild on the "high importance" button on this one...

Federal Gallup/Ö24 poll:

ÖVP: 33%
SPÖ: 31%
FPÖ: 18%
Greens: 13%
BZÖ: 5%

Direct vote for Chancellor:

Josef Pröll (ÖVP): 38%
Werner Faymann (SPÖ): 36%

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/OeVP-hat-bei-Waehlern-die-Nase-vorn-0530196.ece

My Wahlkabinen-results for Upper Austria:

SPÖ: 308
Grüne: 263
KPÖ: 258
BZÖ: 178
FPÖ: -51
ÖVP: -117

My Wahlkabinen-results for Vorarlberg:

SPÖ: 297
Grüne: 289
Gsiberger: 212
BZÖ: 133
FPÖ: 110
ÖVP: -109    

Finally, a new Vorarlberg state elections poll by Market for the newspaper "Standard":

ÖVP: 47% (-8 compared with 2004 state elections)
FPÖ: 17% (+4)
SPÖ: 15% (-2)
Greens: 14% (+4)
BZÖ: 2% (+2)
Others (Gsiberger, Wir Gemeinsam, Kiebitz): 5% (nc)

http://derstandard.at/fs/1252036701397/Vorarlberg-Sausgruber-muss-mit-Verlusten-rechnen

News/OGM Vorarlberg State elections poll:

ÖVP: 50-51%
FPÖ: 18-19%
Greens: 12-13%
SPÖ: 12-13%
BZÖ: 1-2%
GSI: 1-2%

Looks like Upper Austria will be a re-run of the 1991 elections (ÖVP: 45%, SPÖ: 31%, FPÖ: 18%, Greens: 6%) and Vorarlberg of 1994 (ÖVP: 50%, FPÖ: 18%, SPÖ: 16%, Greens: 9%).

Meanwhile, Ewald Stadler, a staunchly conservative catholic MP within the BZÖ, has compared abortions to the Holocaust. He has previously referred to homosexuals as "perverts".

Background:

Pro- and anti-abortion rallies in Vienna

By Lisa Chapman

Pro- and anti-abortion activists campaigned in Vienna yesterday as a prominent pro-abortion organisation marked its thirtieth anniversary.

The groups held rallies outside City Hall where the "pro: woman" group was meeting in the evening.

Police said 700 people from both pro and anti-abortion movements arrived hours before the event.

The anti-abortion demonstrators, who had been mobilised by the small political party "Die Christen" (The Christians), among others, arrived first carrying anti-abortion posters and yelling anti-abortion slogans.

Their organiser Rudolf Gehring said the pro: woman meeting was "a provocation".

"Every abortion causes a human being to die. Such a meeting should not take place," he said.

Pro-abortion supporters backed by the Social Democrats (SPÖ) held a counter-demonstration and some of them threw water-balloons at their opponents.

Meanwhile the pro: woman meeting went ahead as planned, with about 230 invited guests in attendance.

SPÖ Women’s Minister Gabriele Heinisch-Hosek said she had been in contact with People’s Party (ÖVP) Interior Minister Maria Fekter about the possibility of setting up protected zones around abortion clinics.

Pro: woman head Elke Graf said: "Whoever fails to understand that abortion is a woman’s right is out of contact with reality."

Abortion in Austria is available on request up to the 14th week of pregnancy and up to the 24th week if a woman can demonstrate there is a risk to her physical or mental health or the health of the foetus. Parents have to agree to abortions performed on girls under 14 years of age.

There are no restrictions where the procedure is carried out as long as it is preformed by a qualified doctor.

http://austriantimes.at/news/Panorama/2009-09-04/16122/Pro-_and_anti-abortion_rallies_in_Vienna

Latest Vorarlberg state elections poll:

()

Meh, it seems Egger's "Exil Jew"-controversy has helped the FPÖ quite a bit.

Different story in Upper Austria's upcoming state elections, where the relatively young and inexperienced FPÖ-frontrunner has just a 3% trust rating (17% have no trust), according to a new OGM poll. 80% in the state have no opinion of the FPÖ top candidate.

()

http://www.ogm.at/pdfs/APAOGM_Vertrauensindex_OOE_September_09.pdf

The FPÖ is therefore only at 10% in recent polls, which would only be an increase of 1% compared with the previous elections and way below federal results.

Why are the Greens so strong compared to the SPÖ in Vorarlberg?

2 main reasons:

In Vorarlberg (and Tyrol) the big labor unions have always been headed by the ÖVP (or better said the ÖAAB), while the FSG is dominant in all other states. That might explain why the SPÖ is doing relatively badly among workers in these states, because if they think the ÖAAB can manage unions too, why should they vote for the Social Democrats ?

The other reason is that the Greens are particularly strong in the Austrian mountain west (Vorarlberg, Tyrol and Salzburg) and in bigger cities. And even though Vorarlberg is a state, it´s a small one and very densely populated one. The "Rheintal (Rhine Valley)", where 80% of Vorarlberg lives, can somehow be considered a big city.

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Oh sry, I forgot another main reason:

Vorarlberg has the second highest amount of foreigners in Austria (besides Vienna) and once they are naturalized and able to vote, they vote heavily Green.

13% are foreigners and 21% have a migration background.

Latest Upper Austria poll by Spectra for the newspaper "OÖ Nachrichten":

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There`s also an IMAS poll in today's Kronen Zeitung for Upper Austria and Linz:

Upper Austria:

ÖVP: 43-45%
SPÖ: 32-34%
FPÖ: 9-11%
Greens: 8-9%
BZÖ: 2-3%

http://www.krone.at/krone/S152/object_id__160287/hxcms/index.html

Linz:

SPÖ: 44-46% (2003: 49%)
ÖVP: 29-31% (2003: 29%)
Greens: 12-14% (2003: 13%)
FPÖ: 8-10% (2003: 8%)

http://www.krone.at/krone/S152/object_id__161233/hxcms/index.html

Quick look back to the FPÖ-share in the 2003 elections:

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So, if you have a 500-people poll of Linz which has the FPÖ at only 8-10% this is a pretty good indicator where the FPÖ will end up statewide, because the Linz-FPÖ is always about 1% below the statewide result.

Now, where is the FPÖ getting the higher share ? Basically in the districts of Braunau (surprise, surprise ?!), Schärding, Ried, Grieskirchen and Wels-Suburbs ...

New Upper Austria poll by Market for the "OÖ Rundschau":

ÖVP: 43%
SPÖ: 33%
FPÖ: 12%
Greens: 8%
BZÖ: 2%
Others (KPÖ, The Christians): 2%

Gov. Pühringer (ÖVP) defeats challenger Haider (SPÖ) by 63-14 in a direct vote for governor.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20090912_OTS0057

Latest News/OGM poll for Upper Austria:

ÖVP: 43% (nc)
SPÖ: 30% (-8)
FPÖ: 14% (+6)
Greens: 9% (nc)
BZÖ: 3% (+3)
Others: 1% (nc)

Black-Green: 52%
Opposition: 44%

State elections tomorrow in Vorarlberg and 2 new federal polls out today:

Gallup for Ö24

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Karmasin for Profil

SPÖ: 33%
ÖVP: 32%
FPÖ: 20%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 5%

State elections today in the westernmost Austrian state - Vorarlberg.

It´s the most conservative state in Austria (together with Tyrol) and the ÖVP has won an absolute majority in every election since 1945 (except in 1999, when the FPÖ was really strong).

2004 results:

ÖVP: 54.9%
SPÖ: 16.9%
FPÖ: 12.9%
Greens: 10.2%
Others: 5.1%

I predict the following:

ÖVP: 50.2%
FPÖ: 17.4%
SPÖ: 14.3%
Greens: 11.5%
BZÖ: 2.7%
GSI: 2.4%
Others: 1.5%

261.130 people aged 16+ are eligible to vote. Polls are closing at 1pm local time.

The latest Market poll for Upper Austria's state elections next Sunday has the FPÖ gaining in the final weeks:

ÖVP: 41%
SPÖ: 31%
FPÖ: 15%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 3%
Others: 1%

ÖVP-Green Government: 50%
SPÖ-FPÖ Opposition: 46%

83% of those polled are certain to vote and another 9% are likely to vote.

In 2003, turnout was 79%.

All Vorarlberg polls are now closed. The state is counted in roughly 1 hour, but exit polls will be released in 4 hours, due to mobile precincts.

The results of 2 cities I've already found:

Sonntag:

ÖVP: 90.6%
FPÖ: 5.9%
BZÖ: 1.2%
SPÖ: 1.2%
Greens: 0.9%
GSI: 0.2%

Bezau:

ÖVP: 71.3%
FPÖ: 17.3%
Greens: 7.8%
SPÖ: 1.8%
BZÖ: 1.4%
GSI: 0.3%
Others: 0.1%

This of course means that the FPÖ is at about 20-25% statewide.

What type of place is Sonntag?

lol

()

Ah, (Catholic, presumably) Hicksville upon Wedlock. Pretty though.

Cool place. I like.

And a few Muslims maybe. Probably the 10 people who voted for SPÖ/Greens/GSI.

:P

Vorarlberg Exit Poll (17:00)

ÖVP: 50.8% (-4.1)
FPÖ: 25.2% (+12.3)
Greens: 10.4% (+0.2)
SPÖ: 10.1% (-6.8 )
GSI: 1.7% (+1.7)
BZÖ: 1.2% (+1.2)
Others: 0.6%

An overall disgusting result even for this hardcore right-wing state, but the SPÖ-result is shocking ...

The Exit Poll is also the preliminary final result (excluding postal votes):

ÖVP: 88.819 votes (50.82%) (-4.10%)
FPÖ: 44.122 votes (25.25%) (+12.31%)
Greens: 18.116 votes (10.37%) (+0.20%)
SPÖ: 17.589 votes (10.06%) (-6.81%)
GSI: 3.042 votes (1.74%) (+1.74%)
BZÖ: 2.114 votes (1.21%) (+1.21%)
Others: 965 votes (0.56%) (+0.56%)

Total votes: 174.767 votes
Turnout (excl. postal votes): 67.41% (+6.77%)

http://www.vorarlberg.at/wahlen/lt.asp?wahlid=51

Surprise surprise, ÖVP wins every city in the state:

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On the right side, the seat allocation:

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Gov. Sausgruber (ÖVP) has already announced that he will cancel the longtime ÖVP-FPÖ coalition and that the ÖVP will now govern alone.

During the campaign, FPÖ frontrunner Egger has referred to a guy from Frankfurt (Germany) as an "Exile Jew from America".

The 26.5% for the Far-Right is in line with previous election results, especially when compared with the 2008 federal elections, when FPÖ+BZÖ got 29% in Vorarlberg.

If this is an indicator for Upper Austria next Sunday, I guess that the FPÖ will get about 20% there and the BZÖ about 3%. If anything, it was made clear today by analyses that FPÖ-voters are deciding just in the final days to vote for their party. This may not show up in the pre-election polls.

Therefore my guess for Upper Austria:

ÖVP: 40%
SPÖ: 28%
FPÖ: 20%
Greens: 8%
BZÖ: 3%
Others: 1%

Another disgusting side-fact of the election:

In the city of Hohenems, where the Jewish Museum is located and where Hanno Loewy is director (the man that was attacked by FPÖ-frontrunner Dieter Egger as "Exile Jew from America" for critical views of the FPÖ-campaign), the result was as followed:

ÖVP: 39.8% (-9.3%)
FPÖ: 38.0% (+18.5%)
SPÖ: 8.8% (-5.5%)
Greens: 8.6% (+0.1%)
GSI: 3.5% (+3.5%)
BZÖ: 0.8% (+0.8%)

The most right-wing city in the state was Damüls with:

75% ÖVP
23% FPÖ
1.5% BZÖ

The most left-wing city was Bregenz with:

21% SPÖ
12% Greens
2% GSI

Besides the SPÖ-catastrophe, the failure of the Vorarlberg-BZÖ is also remarkable.

No wonder, considering these campaign posters:

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(To German speakers: Do you find the epic mistake they made ?)

Oh dear. Taking care of Vorarlbergers' Carinthia for them. Well, that's nice of the Carinthian State Government Party.

Maybe the FPÖ make this posters against BZÖ ;D

Map of the "Right" (ÖVP+FPÖ+BZÖ) by town:

()

4 shades:

60-70% (only 3 cities: Bregenz, Bürs, Bludenz)
70-80%
80-90%
90%+ (mostly in the center-right and north of the map)

This is how the Austrian Utah looks like ... :P

Interesting:

Notice the more "liberal" areas next to the Autobahn !

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Why are people near the Autobahn less conservative ?

Because the Autobahn runs through the populated areas.

Always interesting, the Vorarlberg EXIT POLL (1.038 people polled):

Vote by Gender:

Women: 60% ÖVP, 16% FPÖ, 13% Greens, 8% SPÖ
Men: 45% ÖVP, 31% FPÖ, 10% Greens, 10% SPÖ

Vote by Age:

below 30: 34% FPÖ, 34% ÖVP, 18% Greens, 9% SPÖ
30-59: 55% ÖVP, 21% FPÖ, 11% Greens, 10% SPÖ
60 and older: 63% ÖVP, 23% FPÖ, 10% SPÖ, 4% Greens

Vote by Age and Gender:

Women below 30: 40% ÖVP, 23% FPÖ, 21% Greens, 10% SPÖ
Women 30-59: 61% ÖVP, 15% FPÖ, 14% Greens, 8% SPÖ
Women 60 and older: 70% ÖVP, 15% FPÖ, 9% SPÖ, 5% Greens

Men below 30: 41% FPÖ, 30% ÖVP, 16% Greens, 9% SPÖ
Men 30-59: 50% ÖVP, 26% FPÖ, 11% SPÖ, 9% Greens
Men 60 and older: 53% ÖVP, 31% FPÖ, 12% SPÖ, 3% Greens

Vote by Occupation:

Worker (Blue-Collar): 37% ÖVP, 33% FPÖ, 21% SPÖ, 4% Greens
Employee (White-Collar): 54% ÖVP, 25% FPÖ, 10% Greens, 6% SPÖ
Self-employed/Farmer: 49% ÖVP, 28% FPÖ, 10% Greens, 8% SPÖ
Retired: 61% ÖVP, 22% FPÖ, 11% SPÖ, 5% Greens

"The statements of FPÖ-frontrunner Dieter Egger were antisemitic":

50% Agree
42% Disagree

By party:

ÖVP: 62% Agree, 32% Disagree
FPÖ: 19% Agree, 75% Disagree
Greens: 78% Agree, 21% Disagree
SPÖ: 56% Agree, 31% Disagree
Non-Voters: 46% Agree, 41% Disagree

How would you rate the direction of Austria ?:

53% going in the right direction
32% going in the wrong direction

How would you rate the direction of Vorarlberg ?:

70% going in the right direction
20% going in the wrong direction

Habsburg family demands right to seek Austrian presidency

Members of the Habsburg-Lorraine dynasty that ruled the Austro-Hungarian Empire have asked for the right to run for the Austrian presidency.

Rudolf Vouk, their lawyer, said the family has lodged a request for the repeal of a 90-year-old ban that prohibits its members from being elected Austria's head of state.

"Such a disposition is no longer justifiable and contravenes the right to free and democratic elections" as well as the principle of equality before the law, Mr Vouk said.

The family's application to end the ban - a year before Austria's next presidential elections - was filed with the constitutional council, with a copy sent to Werner Faymann, the Austrian Chancellor.

The Habsburgs ruled the Holy Roman Empire from 1438 to 1806, and the Austro-Hungarian Empire from 1867 until its demise in 1918 with defeat in the First World War.

Since the proclamation of the Austrian republic in November 1918 and the abolition of the aristocracy, the family has been prohibited from contesting the position of head of state.

"After 90 years, the republic can start to have a bit more distant relationship with history," said Mr Vouk, who is representing Ulrich Habsburg-Lorraine, a Green councillor in Carinthia state.

The Austrian presidency - now held by Heinz Fischer, a Social Democrat elected in 2004 - is largely ceremonial, but carries significant moral authority.

Habsburg-Lorraine is a relative of Otto von Habsburg, the former crown prince who, in 1979, took German citizenship in order to be eligible to fight in the European elections, having renounced his claim to the throne.

For 20 years he represented Germany at the European Union and was a champion of the unpopular view that the EU should expand eastwards.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/austria/6198317/Habsburg-family-demands-right-to-seek-Austrian-presidency.html

There's also a new OGM poll out about this issue:

58% favor an end to the prohibition
23% favor the status-quo

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20090923_OTS0136

Upper Austria state elections tomorrow:

FPÖ-leader H.C. Strache was helping out the new FPÖ-front-runner in OÖ today in the final campaigning saying there's not an Ausländerproblem here, but rather a Türkenproblem. Then he mocked a turkish criminal in broken German who's attacking an Austrian. He said these "Turkish brothers with the knife" (from the word Radaubrüder I guess) need to be thrown out of the country immediately. This is mainly the reason why the Austrian youth is so right-wing these days. Because they are attacked by these wild Turkish youth when they are out in the evening and Strache knows this: "Those who own the Youth, owns the future ! Give us 10 years and we will be the strongest party ! It's not God-given that SPÖ and ÖVP have rank 1 & 2 in elections. You have seen what happened in Vorarlberg. We are back !" and "If I have something to say we`ll kick out drug-dealers and criminal asylum-seekers who exploit the welfare system." he said in front of 6.000 people.

Anyway I predict:

ÖVP: 40% (-3)
SPÖ: 28% (-10)
FPÖ: 20% (+12)
Greens: 8% (-1)
BZÖ: 3% (+3)
Others: 1% (nc)

Turnout: ~ 80%

State Elections in Upper Austria today. Polls are already open and they close at 4pm local time (10am Eastern), with Exit Polls following suit. 1.086.327 persons aged 16+ are allowed to vote.

There are 7 lists:

 1. Österreichische Volkspartei - Liste Landeshauptmann Dr. Josef Pühringer (ÖVP)
 2. Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (SPÖ)
 3. Die Grünen - Die Grüne Alternative (GRÜNE)
 4. Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (FPÖ)
 5. BZÖ - Liste Uschi Haubner (BZÖ)
 6. Die Christen Oberösterreich (DC-OÖ)
 7. Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (KPÖ)

In 2003 the results were:

ÖVP: 43.4%
SPÖ: 38.3%
Greens: 9.1%
FPÖ: 8.4%
KPÖ: 0.8%

Turnout: 79%

The BZÖ and the Christians are running for the first time in the state and I expect turnout to be around 80%. There's good voting weather today.

I expect a strong turn to the Right this time, with the Right (ÖVP/FPÖ/BZÖ/DC-OÖ) getting about 60-65% of the vote (see my prediction above).

Exit Polls in 5 minutes.

ORF 2 Live-Stream here:

mms://apasf.apa.at/ORFLive4a

16:00 EXIT POLL:

ÖVP: 47.1% (+3.7%)
SPÖ: 24.1% (-14.2%)
FPÖ: 16.0% (+7.5%)
Greens: 9.0% (-0.1%)
BZÖ: 3.0% (+3.0%)
Others: 0.8%

Ouch !

Nice to see the FPÖ poll slightly lower than expected.

Yeah that is good to see, but the SPÖ is now absolutely destroyed and has lost every election since Chancellor Faymann (SPÖ) took office.

SPÖ-frontrunner Haider is likely to step down now, he said in a first interview.

Good results.

Good that the conservatives are so strong and that the FPÖ is slightly worse than expected.

BTW: Turnout is 81%, up from 79% in 2003.

Here are the results (154 of 444 cities already counted):

http://wahl.land-oberoesterreich.gv.at/whlp/WHLPErgebnisEingelangtNEU.jsp?newPath=J&wahlNameKurz=L09

Cool, FPÖ does not win St.Georgen am Fillmannsbach !

ÖVP: 45.2% (+4.1)
FPÖ: 43.4% (+1.1)
SPÖ: 4.3%
BZÖ: 3.6%
Greens: 2.9%

With 17% of the votes counted, the Right (ÖVP/FPÖ/BZÖ/DC) has 75%.

:P

Any results for Branau-am-Inn yet?

37 of 46 cities in the district are counted (but not the main city of Braunau, which is a leftist stronghold):

ÖVP: 53.6% (nc)
FPÖ: 18.4% (+8 )
SPÖ: 18.4% (-11)
Greens: 6.0% (+1)
BZÖ: 2.8% (+3)

Latest projection:

ÖVP: 46.8 (+3.4)
SPÖ: 25.0 (-13.3)
FPÖ: 15.1 (+6.7)
Greens: 9.2 (+0.1)
BZÖ: 2.9 (+2.9)
Others: 1.0 (+0.2)

331 of 444 cities now counted.

Interesting:

In the actual vote count, the FPÖ is just at 15.3% right now but leftist strongholds and big cities like Linz, Wels, Steyr are still left to count. Could this mean they will get down to 14% ?

Are you interested in Mauthausen too ?

SPÖ: 44.5% (-12.3%)
ÖVP: 33.2% (+2.8%)
FPÖ: 13.1% (+8.4%)
Greens: 6.6% (-1.0%)
BZÖ: 2.0% (+2.0%)

FPÖ wins only 1 city so far (Steinhaus):

FPÖ: 39.3%
ÖVP: 38.6%
SPÖ: 13.5%
Greens: 6.4%
BZÖ: 1.8%

District of Braunau now fully counted:

ÖVP: 48.9% (+1)
SPÖ: 21.9% (-13)
FPÖ: 18.4% (+8)
Greens: 6.8% (nc)
BZÖ: 3.2% (+3)

The City of Braunau only:

ÖVP: 34.8% (+4)
SPÖ: 28.5% (-19)
FPÖ: 19.7% (+9)
Greens: 11.6% (+1)
BZÖ: 4.8% (+5)

Also, the result in Hallstatt:

SPÖ: 46.8% (-8%)
ÖVP: 32.3% (+4%)
Greens: 11.8% (+3%)
FPÖ: 4.6% (-1%) !!!
BZÖ: 2.9% (+3%)

Final Upper Austria Election Result (pending the remaining postal votes):

ÖVP: 400.366 votes (46.76%, +3.34%)
SPÖ: 213.553 votes (24.94%, -13.39%)
FPÖ: 130.937 votes (15.29%, +6.89%)
Greens: 78.569 votes (9.18%, +0.12%)
BZÖ: 24.268 votes (2.83%, +2.83%)
KPÖ: 4.812 votes (0.56%, -0.22%)
DC: 3.721 votes (0.43%, +0.43%)

Eligible voters: 1.086.310
Total votes: 872.794
Valid votes: 856.226
Turnout: 80.34% (+1.69%)

Some postal votes are outstanding and they are coming in in the next week. They always favor ÖVP and Greens, therefore ÖVP will get to 47%, the Greens to 9.5% and the FPÖ down to 15%. Turnout will increase to 81%, once the postal votes are counted.

First glimpse from Exit Poll numbers:

Under-30-year-olds: 41% ÖVP, 29% FPÖ, 15% Green, 12% SPÖ

30-59-year-olds: 51% ÖVP, 22% SPÖ, 11% Greens, 11% FPÖ

60+ voters: 47% SPÖ, 36% ÖVP, 11% FPÖ

Blue-collar-workers: 35% ÖVP, 34% SPÖ, 26% FPÖ, 5% Greens

White-collar-employees: 49% ÖVP, 15% Greens, 15% SPÖ, 14% FPÖ

Women: 47% ÖVP, 25% SPÖ, 14% Greens, 9% FPÖ

Men: 43% ÖVP, 27% SPÖ, 21% FPÖ, 6% Greens

What this means: The SPÖ has a real problem, when they can't even win workers in this traditional industrial state. Also: The young voters are a bit more right-wing than the average (70% vs. 65% in the state).

A few maps:

Turnout by City:

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Strongest Party by City:

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Biggest Vote Gains by Party and City:

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ÖVP Vote Share by City:

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SPÖ Vote Share by City:

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FPÖ Vote Share by City:

()

Green Vote Share by City:

()

BZÖ Vote Share by City:

()

I have not yet commented on the disastrous result of the Linz-SPÖ, because it came in late yesterday:

The ÖVP won the capital Linz for the first time since WW2, with the SPÖ losing more than 16%.

The final result was:

ÖVP: 35.1% (+6)
SPÖ: 32.7% (-16)
FPÖ: 14.8% (+7)
Greens: 13.4% (nc)
BZÖ: 2.5% (+3)

This must make Vienna Mayor Michael Häupl of the SPÖ very nervous, because he`s up for re-election next year and the SPÖ is on a downward spiral. He also has to defend a really good result from the 2005 elections, when the Vienna SPÖ got 49% of the votes but 55 of 100 city seats. If the Vienna SPÖ crashes to 34-35%, there`s a good chance that FPÖ-leader HC Strache might actually give Häupl a run for his money, because they are polling at 27% there right now. And if Häupl goes down, Austrian Chancellor Faymann is politically dead as well. Because the loss of Socialist Vienna to the FPÖ would be a historic earthquake of unknown dimensions. It's like Artur Davis winning the Governorship in Alabama, just the other way round.

Maybe the Presidential elections in April next year will serve as a bit of a buffer for the SPÖ, because President Heinz Fischer (SPÖ) looks safe for re-election right now. Maybe the press will end their negative spin then that is also dragging down the SPÖ. The only problem would be if Gov. Erwin Pröll announces his candidacy and gets the backing of FPÖ and BZÖ in the runnoff, should Fischer not win the first round. If Fischer would lose re-election, it would be another crazy blow for the SPÖ. So the Presidential Election will be make or break for the SPÖ.

Latest federal ATV "Austria Trend" poll:

ÖVP: 32%
SPÖ: 28%
FPÖ: 23%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 6%
Others: 2%

"The Right": 61%
"The Left": 37%

Another poll where the FPBZÖ beats the SPÖ ... thats bad.

Why is the SPÖ so strong in the southern part of Upper Austria? Old industrial region like that uber-leftie part in Upper Styria?

Also quite amazing that the ÖVP manages to win a landslide in a swing state like Upper Austria.

The southern region of Upper Austria (Salzkammergut, Traunviertel) is the Florida of Austria. Many lakes, mountains and what's important: old people moving there to retire. And old people vote SPÖ, who provide their retirement money. The region mostly looks like this:

()

If you go further east, you see the Steyr (historical) industrial region with the city of Steyr and Steyr suburbs. In Steyr, there are many factory workers, because companies like BMW, MAN and a big iron and car parts industry (Steyr-Daimler-Puch AG) is situated there. There's also a big weapons industry there: Steyr-Mannlicher

Old people vote left in Austria? That's weird.

Go on top of this page and look at the exit poll (BZÖ was defined as "others") ... ;)

So you get the following numbers for the Left and the Right:

16-29 year olds: 72% Right, 28% Left
30-59 year olds: 66% Right, 34% Left
60+ year olds: 50% Left, 50% Right

BTW, Erich Haider (not related with Jörg), the front runner and party chair of the big loser party SPÖ stepped down today.

Uh-oh, more trouble for the Reds:

First federal News/OGM poll after the Upper Austria SPÖ election debacle:

ÖVP: 34%
SPÖ: 26%
FPÖ: 24%
Greens: 10%
BZÖ: 4%
Others: 2%

Right: 62%
Left: 36%

New federal Ö24/Gallup poll:

ÖVP: 35% (+9)
SPÖ: 27% (-2)
FPÖ: 20% (+2)
Greens: 12% (+2)
BZÖ: 4% (-7)
Others: 2% (-4)

Josef Pröll (ÖVP): 38%
Werner Faymann (SPÖ): 35%

The SPÖ crashes even lower, now in danger of being overtaken by the FPÖ.

Latest Market/Standard poll:

()

New Presidential Poll (ATV Austria Trend):

Heinz Fischer (Inc.-SPÖ): 52%
Erwin Pröll (ÖVP): 23%

It is expected that Fischer, who turns 71 tomorrow, will announce this month whether he'll run again and the ÖVP will follow suit with announcing their candidate.

Should be really interesting to see if Fischer manages to overcome the structural advantage for the Right (about 62-38 now) and defeat Pröll. Every other ÖVP-candidate would probably lose.

Today's run-off day in Upper Austria and the main battle will be in Wels, where FPÖ-callenger Bernhard Wieser is mounting a strong challenge against incumbent Peter Koits of the SPÖ. Wieser is a neonazi-supporting fascist and Koits and his family was attacked with hardcore negative campaigning by the Far Right in the previous weeks.

Wels would be the biggest Austrian city where the FPÖ would have a mayor. The Greens have urged their voters to support Koits to avoid the fascist Wieser taking control of the city. Results are in in about 2 hours.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wels

1st round vote:

Peter Koits (SPÖ): 42.9% (-30.8%)
Bernhard Wieser (FPÖ): 29.2% (+19.3%)
Anna Eisenrauch (ÖVP): 20.1% (+5.6%)
Michael Springer (Greens): 6.4% (+6.4%)
Leo Mikesch (Communists): 1.4% (-0.6%)

Left: 50.7% (-25.0%)
Right: 49.3% (+25.0%)

2009 state election vote in Wels:

ÖVP: 36.3% (+4.2%)
SPÖ: 28.3% (-18.0%)
FPÖ: 21.0% (+10.9%)
Greens: 10.4% (-0.2%)
BZÖ: 3.0% (+3.0%)
KPÖ: 0.7% (-0.2%)
DC: 0.3% (+0.3%)

Right: 60.6% (+18.4%)
Left: 39.4% (-18.4%)

28 of 37 run-off cities counted so far:

ÖVP wins 19, SPÖ 8 and the FPÖ 1.

After 44 of 68 precincts, the results in Wels are as followed:

Koits (SPÖ): 53.82%
Wieser (FPÖ): 46.18%

:)

He has definitely won. Great.

Final Result in Wels:

Dr. Peter Koits (SPÖ): 53.53%
Dr. Bernhard Wieser (FPÖ): 46.47%

All 37 run-offs counted:

ÖVP wins 23 cities, SPÖ 13 and the FPÖ 1.

That means the ÖVP now has 330 mayors in Upper Austria, the SPÖ 99, the FPÖ 9, the BZÖ 2 and there are 4 Independents.

Yeah, quite a relief that. Demand to see list of winning party in other cities! ;D

Map? :)

http://wahl.land-oberoesterreich.gv.at/whlp/WHLPBuergermeister.jsp?newPath=J&wahlNameKurz=B09


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The 37 run-off cities are missing, but will soon be included I guess.

The big news today is that Erwin Pröll (ÖVP) will not run for President next year. Basically means President Heinz Fischer (SPÖ) is guaranteed a second term if he runs:

Vienna - Lower Austrian ÖVP Governor Erwin Pröll has rejected a possible presidential candidacy, according to the newspaper Die Presse.

It quoted him as saying he had decided to remain People’s Party (ÖVP) governor of Lower Austria.

Pröll spoke of the 300,000 preference votes he had received in the 2008 provincial election and said: "I have received the trust of many Lower Austrians, who remember my promise to remain governor for my entire five-year term in office,” he said.

The governor said he had decided to make his decision public because speculation about his possible candidacy had caused confusion in Lower Austria.

ÖVP Vice Chancellor and party leader Josef Pröll, who is the Lower Austrian governor’s nephew, said before the announcement that "we have all the time in the world” to reach a decision on a presidential candidate and the party would do so at the right time.

President Heinz Fischer turned 71 last week amid continuing speculation over whether he would run for a second term.

Fischer, who was born in Graz and grew up in what observers have described as modest conditions, was a Social Democratic (SPÖ) MP between 1971 and 2004. He served as parliamentary president for the final 14 years of that period.

Fischer said earlier this year he will announce his decision about running for a second term as president "this autumn” as presidential elections are set to take place next spring. The statement has sparked rumours he might do so in his National Day TV speech on 26 October. In Austria, a president can be in charge for a maximum of two terms. Fischer defeated the People’s Party (ÖVP) candidate Benita Ferrero-Waldner in the 2004 presidential election.

Polls recently showed Erwin Pröll would be the only possible candidate who could mount a challenge against Fischer.

Political analysts had warned people might be reluctant to vote for Pröll since he is the uncle of ÖVP Vice Chancellor Josef Pröll and may feel one member of the family in senior posts could be enough.

Kronen Zeitung publisher Hans Dichand has officially backed Pröll and appealed to him to run for the post. "I would like to see both Prölls in charge of Austria,” the 88-year-old – regarded as the most influential personality in the Austrian media – said in an interview.

http://www.wienerzeitung.at/DesktopDefault.aspx?TabID=4082&Alias=wzo&cob=444218

The ÖVP is now also winning back my home state, Salzburg - according to a new GMK poll:

ÖVP: 38% (+1)
SPÖ: 34% (-5)
FPÖ: 16% (+3)
Greens: 9% (+2)
BZÖ: 3% (-1)

State elections were held on March 1 this year and the SPÖ now holds only 2 states anymore, Vienna and Burgenland. Allthough the 5%-decline for the SPÖ in Salzburg is in line with the national trend, the Salzburg-SPÖ is still 10% stronger than the national SPÖ.

Latest IMAS/Kronen Zeitung poll for the important 2010 Vienna State Elections:

SPÖ: 44-46% (-4 compared with 2005)
ÖVP: 18-20% (nc)
FPÖ: 18-20% (+4)
Greens: 14-16% (nc)
Others: 1-3%

Direct vote for Mayor:

Michael Häupl (SPÖ-Inc.): 47%
Johannes Hahn (ÖVP): 17%
Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ): 12%
Maria Vassilakou (Greens): 7%

LOL, disastrous results for the FPÖ in my opinion ... :)

With Erwin Pröll out of the Presidential race, the main focus is who the Center-right will run as their candidate now. Previously, ÖVP as well as FPÖ and BZÖ have said they will each run a candidate on their own, but with Pröll out the parties may back a united Center-Right candidate. The most important names now mentioned are former ÖVP-Chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel (unlikely as he's regarded as the "destroyer" of the FPÖ), Benita Ferrero-Waldner (ÖVP, was defeated by President Fischer in 2004), former Foreign Minister Ursula Plassnik (ÖVP), former ÖVP-governor of Styria Waltraud Klasnic, former audit court chief Franz Fiedler and Norbert Steger (FPÖ, a former parliamentary vice-president, who wants to abolish the Presidency if elected).

Please don't do this. The FPÖ and BZÖ aren't center-right in any sense.

Yeah, it's very annoying.

Yeah, yeah ... ok. ;D

Anyway, new poll for the 2010 Styria State Elections:

()

Latest IMAS/Kronen Zeitung poll for the 2010 Burgenland State Elections:

SPÖ: 50-52% (-1 compared with 2005)
ÖVP: 28-30% (-7)
FPÖ: 9-11% (+4)
Greens: 7-9% (+3)
Others: 1-3% (+1)

Really good polling numbers for the SPÖ so far when it comes to 2010. President Fischer is heading for re-election, the position in Vienna looks safe while the FPÖ is underperforming, Burgenland is still the reddest state in Austria and Styria is a complete tossup.

A few words to Styria:

Today, the annual SPÖ-convention took place and Gov. Voves was re-elected by 99.6% of all delegates. You have to consider that Voves is a more controversial figure within the SPÖ, who`s criticizing Chancellor Faymann all the time for being just a "smiler" but "do-nothing guy", "who's just compromising with the ÖVP as often as he can". But he seems to be on a good path in Styria.

Also, party-leftist and state parliamentary president Kurt Flecker, who was elected president with the votes of the state communists, is a frequent critic of Faymann and after the SPÖ was heavily defeated in the latest Vorarlberg and Upper Austria State elections, he asked Faymann to resign, because "he`s steering the party against a wall".

Flecker is also known in Styria for supporting the exhibition of a 5m joint in light of the 40 year Woodstock festivities with 500.000€ of taxpayer money, while he was Minister for Culture earlier this year. Today at the state convention, Voves asked Faymann and Flecker for a shakehand onstage to show party unity again:

()

(Faymann, Voves, Flecker)

BTW:

Gov. Voves has a 62-33 job approval rating (vs. 61-32 in the June poll) according to IMAS.

()

Latest Carinthia poll:

BZÖ: 41% (-4)
SPÖ: 27% (-2)
ÖVP: 21% (+4)
Greens: 6% (+1)
FPÖ: 4% (nc)
Others: 1% (+1)

BZÖ/ÖVP Government: 62%
Opposition: 37%

Latest Gallup/Ö24 poll:

ÖVP: 36% (+10)
SPÖ: 28% (-1)
FPÖ: 19% (+1)
Greens: 12% (+2)
BZÖ: 4% (-7)
Others: 1% (-5)

What's the reason for the rise of the ÖVP? It seems for me that the BZÖ voters outside of Carinthia go back to their roots.

That`s true. The BZÖ is ideologically near to the ÖVP, with the BZÖ being slightly more nationalist, but also more socialist than the ÖVP. When it comes to business policy, you can't really seperate them. 2008 was probably the last time the BZÖ got more than 5% nationwide. Another reason might be that there's a temporary bounce because the ÖVP did so well in the latest state elections. That also happened after the June EU elections. While SPÖ and ÖVP were tied before the elections, the ÖVP was 5% ahead after the elections. After some time it narrowed again. Lets wait for next year, because the SPÖ is doomed to win at least 3 of the 4 races that are held. If the Social Democrats are reelected to the Presidency, win in Burgenland and Vienna and have a good result in Styria, they may have a big comeback in the national polls as well.

Anyway, new Ö24/Gallup poll for the Presidential Election:

President Fischer Approval Rating: 77% Approve, 17% Disapprove

Only 45% of Austrians want an ÖVP-candidate to oppose Fischer. If ÖVP and FPÖ run a fusion candidate, 62% of Austrians are opposed.

Adequacy ratings of possible Fischer-opponents:

* Christoph Leitl (35% of Austrians say he's adequat for the Presidency)
* Andreas Khol (35%)
* Franz Fiedler (29%
* Waltraud Klasnic (29%)
* Wolfgang Schüssel (26%
* Susanne Riess-Passer (21%)
* Norbert Steger (11%)

63% of Austrians favor the Presidency, 32% say it's dispensable. Younger people (83% support) are more likely than old people to favor the office (41% oppose). Voters of all parties, except BZÖ-voters, favor the Presidency. BZÖ-voters favor abolishment by 52%.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Solo-fuer-Heinz-Fischer-0558123.ece

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Jeder-Dritte-will-keinen-Praesident-0558157.ece

The top 2 of these candidates have said to Ö24 today that they won't run for President, making it even harder for the ÖVP to field a good candidate.

Latest Profil/Karmasin poll:

ÖVP: 35% (+9)
SPÖ: 28% (-1)
FPÖ: 22% (+4)
Greens: 10% (nc)
BZÖ: 4% (-7)
Others: 1% (-5)

The Coalition (SPÖVP) has obviously agreed that Johannes (Gio) Hahn will go to Brussels, to become the new Austrian EU Commissioner for something (probably Agriculture). That means Austria needs a new Minister of Science and Education, as well as a new head of the Vienna-ÖVP, because in roughly one year there are state elections. Students will most likely be very happy with the "Brussels-deployment", because Hahn is very controversial with students, favoring the introduction of tuition fees in universities, as well as blocking the compensation proposal for the swelling German student population.

A few updates:

There's a new Ö24/Gallup poll out for the October 2010 Vienna State elections:

SPÖ: 45% (-4)
FPÖ: 20% (+5)
ÖVP: 18% (-1)
Greens: 15% (nc)
Others: 2% (nc)

In a direct vote for Mayor, the incumbent Mayor Michael Häupl (SPÖ) beats Austrian FPÖ-leader Heinz-Christian Strache by 59-19.

That`s a bad result for the FPÖ, considering that FPÖ+BZÖ got 25% in Vienna in the 2008 federal elections. The ÖVP is also in bad shape, because they are currently leaderless. The Vienna ÖVP was led by Johannes Hahn, who is also Austrian Minister for Science and Research. But now he was appointed for the post of Austrian EU Commissioner in Brussels. The new Vienna ÖVP leader is now most likely Harry Himmer.

Austrian President Heinz Fischer (SPÖ) has still not announced if he'll run for re-election next year, but the ÖVP is leaning against running a candidate to oppose him. Under Austrian law, presidential campaign money is not refunded by taxpayer money, unlike in parliamentary elections. Therefore the ÖVP would waste about 7 Mio. €, because Fischer looks unbeatable. It remains to be seen if any other party will risk putting up a candidate against Fischer, but they also lean against, because of the money issue. Austrians don't want a costly presidential race this time and ÖVP/FPÖ/BZÖ and Greens are saving their money for the 2010 state elections instead.

There's also a new federal Ö24/Gallup poll:

ÖVP: 35% (+9)
SPÖ: 29% (nc)
FPÖ: 20% (+2)
Greens: 11% (+1)
BZÖ: 4% (-7)
Others: 1% (-5)

Latest news on the Civil Union law:

This Tuesday, parliament will vote on the new Civil Union Law that will be enacted on January 1, 2010. The SPÖVP coalition will most likely back it, the FPÖ will vote against it, the BZÖ has announced a free vote for all their members and the Greens are most likely to oppose it, because they think it doesn't go far enough (they want full marriage rights for gay couples incl. adoptions, which are banned in this Civil Union law).

In most aspects, the law is enabling the same rights to gay couples that hetero couples have and by the media it is described similar to Germany's or Switzerland's model (or even more progressive).

The main battle between SPÖ and ÖVP is now also settled: While the SPÖ wanted gays to register at the "Standesamt" (town registrar's offices), the ÖVP wanted them to register at the county registrar's offices. In Austria, hetero couples wed and register at the "Standesamt", whereas the county registrar's offices are responsible for minor issues such as issuing driver licenses. The ÖVP Interior and Justice Ministers won the dispute to highlight the difference to the traditional marriage and gays will now "marry" at the county agencies.

There's also a new Profil/Gallup poll out that shows that Austrians side with the SPÖ on the issue:

45% want Civil Unions registered at the Standesamt (town registrar's offices)
17% want Civil Unions registered at the BH or Magistrat (county registrar's offices)
20% think it doesn't matter where Civil Unions are registered
16% are completely against Civil Unions
2% had no opinion

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20091114_OTS0002/profil-mehrheit-fuer-eintragung-der-homo-ehe-am-standesamt/channel/medien

The new Vienna ÖVP leader is not Harry Himmer. Austrian Under-Secretary for Economy, Family and Youth - Christine Marek - announced that she would run for the post and Himmer retreated. Today she was elected with 80% to the leadership position.

Now we have 2 women front-runners for next year and 2 men:

SPÖ: Mayor Michael Häupl
FPÖ: Austrian FPÖ-leader Heinz-Christian Strache
ÖVP: Christine Marek
Greens: Maria Vassilakou

Agriculture? Again? That would be the third time in four Commissions.

Oh well, at least it is better for a country than having the European Commissioner for Multilingualism.

Agriculture is the best ressort, because it`s the one where you can throw the most money around ... ;)

But Hahn is now mentioned as the new Commissioner for Environment, not Agriculture.

Here's a list of what we know so far:

The future Commission’s profile is becoming clearer but still needs a fair amount of fine tuning. Six countries have yet to announce officially who their choices are: Ireland, Greece, Italy, Malta, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. The special European Council, on 19 November, is expected to approve the names of the 27 members of the new Commission.

Meanwhile, Europoliticspresents the most accurate picture possible of the new executive just days before the names become official.

- AT - Austria: Johannes Hahn. The left-right coalition in Vienna ended up agreeing on the candidacy of Conservative Johannes Hahn, currently science minister.

- BE - Belgium: Karel De Gucht. As Louis Michel’s successor, De Gucht does not plan to keep the development and humanitarian aid portfolio. Belgium is hoping to secure energy or trade.

- BG - Bulgaria: Rumiana Jeleva. A sociology professor with a doctorate from Otto von Guericke University in Germany, this 40-year-old was re-elected last June to a second term in the European Parliament on the list of the right-of-centre party in office, the GERB.

- CZ – Czech Republic: Stefan Füle. Aged 47, Füle has served as ambassador to Lithuania, the United Kingdom and NATO. In May 2009, he was named European affairs minister in Jan Fischer’s government. His Communist past, and the fact that he studied at the Soviet State Institute for International Relations in Moscow, sparked debate at the time of his ministerial appointment.

- CY - Cyprus: Androulla Vassiliou. The mandate of Health Commissioner Androulla Vassiliou (Liberal, age 66), appointed to replace Markos Kyprianou, who returned to the national government, is expected to be renewed.

- DE - Germany: Günther Oettinger. Minister-president of Baden-Württemberg since 2005, this 56-year-old Christian Democrat, who studied law, will replace Social Democrat Günter Verheugen (industry). This choice marks the return of a CDU member to the Commission after a 20-year absence.

- DK - Denmark: The Danish candidate is expected to be the current Energy and Climate Minister, Connie Hedegaard.

- EE - Estonia: Siim Kallas. In charge of administration, audit and anti-fraud in the outgoing Commission, Kallas was given the full support of his government in mid-September. At age 61, he is said to be interested in one of the key portfolios, such as internal market, competition or economic and monetary affairs, but is not likely to secure one of these very sought-after positions.

- IE - Ireland: Maire Geoghegan Quinn, Ireland’s representative to the EU Court of Auditors, is the name mentioned most often, but some are critical of her ties with Declan Ganley, the champion of the ‘no’ vote on the Lisbon Treaty. A possible alternative is Pat Cox, former president of the European Parliament, whose name is also circulating.

- EL - Greece: The new government has not yet announced a decision.

- ES - Spain: Joaquín Almunia. After receiving the backing of Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Zapatero in April, Almunia looks set to be the future Spanish commissioner.

- FI - Finland: Olli Rehn, enlargement commissioner in the outgoing Commission.

- FR - France: Michel Barnier. Former Foreign Minister, Barnier was a member of the Commission from 1994 to 1999.

- HU - Hungary: László Andor. This economist and member of the Board of Directors of the EBRD since 2005 will succeed László Kovács, in charge of taxation and customs union. Andor has no ties to any political party but has the support of the governing Socialists (MSZP).

- IT - Italy: Unless Italy obtains the post of high representative for former Prime Minister Massimo D’Alema (who has the backing of the European Socialists), Antonio Tajani is expected to be named to the Commission. In 2008, he became transport commissioner following Franco Frattini’s return to the national political scene.

- LT - Lithuania: Algirdas Semeta, in charge of budget and financial programming since September, when Dalia Grybauskaité was elected president of Lithuania, is expected to remain Lithuania’s candidate for the next executive. The 47-year-old economist (Christian Democrat) is a former finance minister.

- LU - Luxembourg: Viviane Reding. At age 58, she is set to hold her third mandate in the executive. Reding could keep the telecommunications portfolio, which several sources say could be widened to include intellectual property (currently under the internal market portfolio) and thus online content.

- LV - Latvia: Andris Piebalgs. Appointed for a second term, Piebalgs, a physicist by training, hopes to keep the energy portfolio.

- MT - Malta:The name of the next Maltese commissioner is not known yet, although current Fisheries and Maritime Affairs Commissioner Joe Borg has made it clear that he is ready to accept a second mandate.

- NL - Netherlands: The Netherlands has not made an official announcement yet. The appointee will depend to a large extent on the portfolio. The names being heard most often, apart from Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende, who some see as the future European Council president, include: Justice Minister Ernst Hirsch Ballin, Yvonne van Rooy, chancellor of the University of Tilburg and former deputy minister for economic affairs, former Agriculture Minister Cees Veermans and Economic Affairs Minister Maria van der Hoeven.

- PL - Poland: The future Polish commissioner is expected to be Janusz Lewandowski, recently re-elected to the EP (EPP). His experience would be suited to an economic portfolio, as sought by Poland. There has been no decision yet, however, and in Poland, Donald Tusk’s aides repeat that everything will depend on the portfolio offered.

- PT - Portugal: José Manuel Barroso. Chosen by the 27 EU heads of state and government and confirmed by the European Parliament, Conservative Barroso is staying on for a second term at the Commission.

- RO - Romania: Dacian Ciolos. The collapse of the Romanian government, on 13 October, re-opened debate on the name of the future commissioner. In the end, the choice of Emil Boc’s government was confirmed, namely former Agriculture Minister Dacian Ciolos.

- SK - Slovakia: Maros Sefcovic. The former permanent representative to the EU, who this year replaced Jan Figel, Sefcovic is expected to stay on as Slovakia’s commissioner. He is said to be interested in energy or transport.

- SI - Slovenia: Janez Potocnik. The current research commissioner has been appointed for a second term by his government. Potocnik would like either to keep the same portfolio or to obtain an economic portfolio, since is an economist by training.

- SE - Sweden: Cecilia Malmström. On 17 November, Stockholm nominated Cecilia Malmström, the country’s current EU affairs minister, as its next commissioner. A member of the Liberal Party, she was an MEP between 1999 and 2006. Malmström’s nomination excludes the rumoured appointment of current Foreign Minister Carl Blidt as high representative for foreign affairs and security policy.

- UK – United Kingdom: Gordon Brown has not announced his choice, which would be made official at the EU summit, on 19 November. Apart from current Commissioner Catherine Ashton, the names of Shriti Vadera (secretary for competitiveness) and David Miliband are being mentioned.

http://europolitics.info/europolitics/new-college-slowly-taking-shape-art254731-46.html

Austrian government to recognise same-sex civil unions

DEREK SCALLY, in Berlin

THE GOVERNMENT of Austria has cleared the way for state recognition of same-sex civil unions from the start of next year.

The necessary legislation was agreed yesterday in a compromise between the ruling Social Democrats (SPÖ) and their junior, conservative coalition partners, the People's Party (ÖVP). It gives same-sex couples identical rights to married couples in financial affairs such as tax, pension and maintenance.

Adoption rights and access to artificial insemination as a couple will not be granted.

Under pressure from the conservatives, same-sex couples will not be able to register their partnership in a ceremony at their local registry office. SPÖ women's affairs minister Gabriele Heinisch-Hosek, who was responsible for the legislation, said the law was "incomplete" with a registry office ban and said it was only a "temporary" measure.

"I think this is something we will keep under discussion," said SPÖ chancellor Werner Faymann of the deal, reached yesterday at 6am after an all-night negotiating session. Meanwhile ÖVP leader Josef Pröll said his party had "gone far enough" by "agreeing to what was possible".

The law has come in for heavy criticism in conservative Austrian society, and has been attacked as "unnecessary" by Catholic bishops.

Gay rights campaigners have brushed off the criticism and welcomed the legislation as part of a European trend. "What the church has to finally accept is that the question of state recognition of all forms of relationship is a state and not a religious matter," said Marco Schreuder, a Green city councillor in Vienna, to Die Presse newspaper.

At a gay rights march in Vienna there were mixed feelings towards the new legislation.

"Homos should be allowed make the same mistakes as heteros!" read one marcher's sign, a nod to a total of 37 points of difference in the new legislation with the rights and obligations of married couples.

"They can take the new law and stick it," said 30-something Erich from Vienna, in a relationship for 10 years. "This law makes us into second-class citizens."

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2009/1118/1224259040662.html

If Barnier or any MEP becomes Commish, doesn't that mean he resigns as MEP?

Nothing really new after 1 year of the Faymann-Pröll (SPÖVP) government (new Profil poll):

ÖVP: 34% (+8)
SPÖ: 29% (nc)
FPÖ: 21% (+3)
Greens: 10% (nc)
BZÖ: 5% (-6)
Others: 1% (-5)

President Heinz Fischer announced his run for re-election today in a YouTube-Video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfxQurRWqDA

Now it´s time for the other parties to decide if they`ll oppose Fischer with his 80% approvals and waste millions of € for nothing (or for the sake of Democracy).

The new European Commissioner from the Netherlands will be the same as the current Commissioner Neelie Kroes. Her current portfolio is Competition, her new portfolio is still unknown, but it is probable that it will have to do with the economy (e.g. Trade, Internal Market, Economy&Finance). Also, she will be one of the vice-chairmen of the Commission.

The Austrian Government is becoming more female. ÖVP-leader Josef Pröll has picked MP Katharina Cortolezis-Schlager to replace Johannes Hahn as Minister for Science and Research:

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So, from 2010 on there will be 7 male ministers and 6 female ministers in the Faymann-Cabinet.

Presidential Election Info:

There was a debate what happens if President Fischer is the only candidate on the April 25, 2010 ballot. If this is the case, the "election" will be changed into a referendum on Fischer and the question will read: "Do you want Fischer to serve a second term as President of Austria ?" If a majority answers "No" (which is very, very unlikely), a new election will be called (in which - interestingly - Fischer could run again).

BTW: A new OGM-poll shows a 71% Fischer approval rating.

New Gallup poll for Ö24 out today:

66% of Austrians say President Heinz Fischer should be re-elected by the 2 Chambers of Parliament rather than the people if he's the only candidate in April 2010 ("Electoral College"), while 29% are against this idea.

If Fischer is the only candidate and the popular vote takes place, 75% would vote to re-elect him and 18% would not.

If there`s a single candidate that is backed by the right-wing parties (ÖVP/FPÖ/BZÖ), 64% would vote for Fischer, 14% for the right-wing candidate and another 22% are undecided.

The ÖVP is now leaning against running a candidate on their own, the FPÖ is in favor of running a candidate, the BZÖ wants to run a candidate if no other party runs one and the Greens are undecided.

The new Gallup poll also shows the SPÖ coming closer to the ÖVP again:

ÖVP: 34% (+8%)
SPÖ: 30% (+1%)
FPÖ: 19% (+1%)
Greens: 12% (+2%)
BZÖ: 4% (-7%)
Others: 1% (-5%)

SPÖVP Government Approval Rating:

41% Approve
52% Disapprove

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Oesterreicher-fuer-Absage-von-BP-Wahl-0586746.ece

The Burgenland State Elections will be on May 2, 2010 - 1 week after the Presidential elections.

The state-SPÖ, which has an absolute majority, set the date today - probably to get a good result after the (to be expected) landslide re-election of SPÖ-President Fischer.

Wohoo, President Fischer has an opponent now - and it`s a Christian fundie:

Rudolf Gehring, leader of the Austrian Christian Party (CPÖ), has announced that he will oppose Fischer in the April 25, 2010 Presidential elections.

Gehring is a strong Islam-critic and abortion-opponent.

But first he'll have to find 6.000 signatures to be on the ballot. I guess the CPÖ will be able to accomplish that, because of their recent ballot success in various elections.

Here´s Gehring (right) with Austrian FPÖ-leader Strache at an Anti-Islam demo:

()

Austrian parliament OKs gay civil unions

VIENNA — Austria's parliament passed legislation Thursday allowing same-sex couples to enter into civil unions, a move hailed by proponents as a historic win for gay rights in the country.

The bill, slated to become law Jan. 1, will give same-sex couples many of the rights enjoyed by their heterosexual counterparts, including access to a pension if one partner dies and alimony in the event of a split.

"We are living in the 21st century and I'm very glad this step is being taken today," Justice Minister Claudia Bandion-Ortner said during parliamentary debate leading up to the vote.

Christian Hoegl, co-president of the Homosexual Initiative Vienna, Austria's oldest group of gays and lesbians, agreed.

"It's a relief, a big success and a reward for two decades of lobbying," Hoegl said.

Earlier in the day, Hoegl and co-president Jona Solomon passed out pink rum-filled cupcakes to parliamentarians, along with a letter that urged them to vote yes.

The legislation — considered a compromise between the governing coalition — did not pass unanimously. In the end, of the 174 lawmakers who cast ballots, 110 voted in favor of the bill, and 64 voted against it.

The opposition right-wing Freedom Party rejected it outright, saying it goes too far. The Greens, on the other hand, argued it was too limited.

Freedom Party chief Heinz-Christian Strache said the parliament's approval went against the will of most Austrians and undermined the institution of marriage.

The new bill also formally bans the adoption of children or artificial insemination for same-sex couples.

And, unlike straight couples, gay couples will not be able to record their unions at the civil registry office but with another authority instead. The issue led to heated debate in recent weeks, with critics saying it clearly signals that a same-sex partnership isn't given the same weight as a marriage between a man and a woman.

Gabriele Heinisch-Hosek, a Social Democrat who is the country's minister for women's affairs and fought against the registration differences, described the vote as "the first step in the right direction."

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hDt8Yq8oetIOgJKLxdZGsNAvWNDwD9CGM8U80

Latest polls for the 2010 Burgenland state elections:

OGM/News

SPÖ: 48% (-4)
ÖVP: 34% (-2)
FPÖ: 10% (+4)
Greens: 5% (nc)
FW: 2% (+2)
Others (BZÖ): 1% (nc)

M&R Institut für Marktforschung & Regionalumfragen

SPÖ: 46% (-6)
ÖVP: 35% (-1)
FPÖ: 13% (+7)
Greens: 4% (-1)
Others (FW, BZÖ): 2% (+1)

Latest federal Market poll for the newspaper "Standard":

()

Right-wing parties (ÖVP+FPÖ+BZÖ): 60%
Left-wing parties (SPÖ+Greens): 37%

Direct vote for Chancellor:

()

Is the BZÖ relevant without Haider?

Not anymore. The BZÖ-Governor of Carinthia is literally a joke politician, similar to GWB, who - together with the party - is wrecking the state and it`s finances. Carinthia is the most indebted state in Austria right now and it`s debt per capita will be 3 times higher in 2014, a rise unseen in other states. It has also the most people in poverty in all of Austria. The banking scandal of the Hypo, based in Carinthia and sold to the Bavarians in 2007, also takes a big toll on the BZÖ. The Bavarians and Carinthians fu**ed up the bank in the last 2 years, because they thought they could make big profits in the Balkans, but with the financial crisis now the losses accumulated, and just yesterday the Bavarians sold the bank for 4 Bio. € to the Austrian government, which nationalized the bank to prevent a bankrupcy. Austrian finance minister Pröll is now really mad at the Carinthians. Not without reason. So, except in Carinthia, the BZÖ is politically dead in the rest of Austria and in the next local Carinthia elections the BZÖ will sink as well.

...

Austria nationalized a key regional bank in a multibillion-euro bailout that offered a fresh reminder that Europe's banks remain vulnerable to shocks, despite recent signs of economic stabilization.

Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, personally intervened in the bailout talks over the weekend, urging swift action amid concerns that Hypo Group Alpe Adria's problems could envelop other Austrian banks and its much larger parent, BayernLB -- a linchpin in Germany's troubled state-controlled Landesbank sector.

Mr. Trichet called both Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann and Horst Seehofer, governor of the German state of Bavaria, to ensure that Hypo was rescued, according to people familiar with the matter.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126083147557991181.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLTopStories

(For the German-speakers), some Carinthia-bashing:

Die neue Kärntner Landeshymne

Dort wo debil an deppert grenzt,
wo man mit dummen Sagern glänzt
wo man mit sägen sich bestückt
wo Ortstafeln man stolz verrückt
und wo es fehlt an Sachverstand
dort ist es, unser Kärntnerland.
wo man mit Negerwitzen prahlt
wo man Lokalrunden gern bezahlt
wo man von Wirtschaft nix versteht
und wo die Hypo untergeht
dort ist es - ihr habt es schon erkannt -
unser bankrottes Kärntnerland.
wo man die Metropole schimpft
wo Kritiker man verunglimpft
wo man der Freunderln Taschen füllt
und gegen die slowenen brüllt
dort ist es - fest in oranger Hand -
unser verjörgtes heimatland!

In diesem Sinne: LEILEI

http://derstandard.at/plink/1259281973090?sap=2&_pid=15053545#pid15053545

Breaking News: FPÖ and BZÖ to unify !

Article soon ...

:o

sh**t.

I´ve just read that the FPÖ will unify only with the Carinthian BZÖ under the leadership of Uwe Scheuch, but not with the federal BZÖ, headed by Josef Bucher. They plan a CDU/CSU model with a unified parliamentary group. They will run together in federal elections, the FPÖ in 8 states and the FPK in Carinthia. The BZÖ in Carinthia will be renamed FPK (Freedom Party of Carinthia) and they`ll change the colours from Orange to Blue, like the FPÖ. Don't know what happens with the federal BZÖ under Bucher. Outside Carinthia the BZÖ is not viable and I consider them politically dead. FPÖ-leader Strache and Scheuch are now at a press conference and Scheuch said: "It`s good to be back home."

Vienna - A regional chapter of the late Joerg Haider's rightist party joined forces with the far-right Freedom Party Wednesday, both political groups announced in Vienna. The Alliance for the Future of Austria in Carinthia province and the Freedom Party are to cooperate closely in a "unification of the third political force," Freedom Party leader Heinz-Christian Strache said in a term used for far-right parties.

Both national parties won 28.2 per cent of the vote in last year's parliamentary elections.

The Alliance split from the Freedom party in 2005 and was led by Joerg Haider until he died in the autumn of 2008 in a car accident in Carinthia, where he was governor.

"It's good to be back home," Carinthian Alliance leader Uwe Scheuch said at a joint press conference.

http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/299645,far-right-parties-in-austria-join-forces.html

New seat composition in the Austrian Parliament:

SPÖ: 57
ÖVP: 51
FPÖ: 39 (+5, Martin Strutz, Maximilian Linder, Josef Jury, Sigisbert Dolinschek, Stefan Markowitz)
Greens: 20
BZÖ: 15 (-6)
IND: 1 (+1, Gerhard Huber)

No reaction from the federal BZÖ-leader Bucher yet, but regional leaders have reacted:

* Upper Austria BZÖ leader Ursula Haubner (sister of Jörg Haider) said that work in Upper Austria will go on for the state BZÖ. Last election result on Sept. 27: 2.8% (no seats)

* Robert Stark, BZÖ-leader in Salzburg also said they continue their work.  Last election result on March 1: 3.7% (no seats)

If the "Rest-BZÖ" cannot get any seats in the 2013 federal elections, they lose tax-payer money to compete in future elections, so it`s a downward spiral for them.

This will never cease to be amusing.

Seems like the newspaper reports were not entirely correct. MP Stefan Markowitz will remain member of the BZÖ and not switch to the FPÖ. That leaves 4 members from the BZÖ switching to the FPÖ.