Talk Elections

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How likely would this map have become if the US lost the war in 1862. I got a little liberal and assumed that the US would have ceded over part of CA in peace negotiations.

Would the Russians have had more influence in North America? Or would have Canada seized onto the upper plains territories?

I dont know if the Feds would have ceded both Maryland and Delaware to the CSA, Kentucky probably.

Not impossible they move the capitol back north but i dont see it happening, unless the south has a real choke hold

The Feds were barely holding on to MD in '62. I will agree with you on Delaware. Also, the yankees may have been reeling bad enough to cede whatever necessary to end the conflict.

If I recall correctly, Delaware had some key manufacturing facilities (gunpowder etc), I cant see that going, unless the south had whooped our ass, which it looks like in the scenario.

Not to get all Turtledove here, but perhaps the north and canada get closer, perhaps a union or some sorts (forced one way or the other) by the late 1860s or so...

What do you think Russia would have done? I know they wanted a piece of the imperial action in the late 19th century.

I dont know if they confront Britain (remind me, would the UK have gotten its panties in a twist over Canada in this period?) over the Plains, I think the map you have basically implies confrontation, which I dont see happening.

To me the map is highly unlikely.

First, the US had a strong hold on Maryland and Delaware after 1861 and I dont think it would have been necessary to cede either to achieve peace.   
Second, i see no reason why the US would have ceded part of CA.
Thrid, what the heck are the russians doing in the rocky mountains?

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We didn't come to Russia looking to buy Alaska, they came to us because they needed the money.  If the US was in lousy position because they lost to CSA they might not have sold it to us, but they would have sold it to somebody.  Maybe Canada/UK.  Maybe Japan.  Maybe it becomes it's own nation.  There is no way Russia could of had any control in any parts of North America.  To weak, to poor, to far away.

Either way it would only be a matter of time before the south withered and died. Most of the men would be dead after the war and with slavery continued I could see a slave rebellion starting and the north could head south and finish the job.

Maybe Russia Keeps Alaska, but they wouldn't have any other territory in North America. Washington territory had already formed in 1853. Russian North America in this map would probably have remained union territory.

The Confederacy would not get Delaware, Maryland, New Mexico Territory and most of California.

Russia was too poor and it's relative power was in decline. They wanted to sell Alaska because it was a net drain on their resources at the time. I don't see how they defeat Britain in North America and march down through the Rockies, especially with Brittania ruling the waves at this point in history.

I think you would actually see a gradual seperation of both the USA and CSA into independent states.

• Certainly the most likely state to break away would be Texas who would be eager to intercede in the French involvement in Mexico (I doubt the rest of the CSA would be as interested in another war).
• New York City might break away from the USA and become a small corrupt nation run by Tammany Hall.
• As slavery becomes less useful/cost effective I can see some of the CSA states doing away with it and others hanging on.  Just as this created a problem with the Northern states it will create problems between the CSA members and you would see further seperation.
• The issue of women's suffrage would almost certainly create problems and division as the 19th century winds down.  Some states would accept it, others would not.
• Just as problems/wars occur between European nations I think you would see them occur between American nations.
• With the rise of Communism a few American states would likely adopt it as a form of government (Minnesota seems like a likely early adopter).
• I suspect WWI would happen without much American involvement ... meaning it would drag on longer and be bloodier but likely would end with the same result.
• The Nazi's still come to power in Germany, the US is slower to intercede, the Japanese dominate the Pacific, there is no Manhattan Project, and the overall international influence of the Soviet Union is greater.

When all is said and done if the North loses the Civil War I don't think we have a happier or more pleasant world.  A United American state has been a much greater force for Good in this world than it would be if it were divided.

The USA would not have lost the District of Columbia, though the seat of government may have moved away from there eventually. Maryland would have been cannibalised and carved up, ensuring CSA domination of the Chesapeake and the Delaware, also sounding the deathknell of Philadelphia (for which the CSA would have charged the USA a fortune access) New York as the only viable port would have grown even faster post war and become an unweildy metropolitan behemoth.

I can see DC being abandoned, but the dream still lives on. I can see a planned inland capital being built west of the Mississippi (Which on another note would be essentially closed to traffic perhaps in Nebraska.

There is no war with Spain with either the USA or CSA. Both Spain and the CSA would bustle for political and economic influence in Latin America.

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The problem for the CSA as it entered the early 20th Century would have been Virginia, the centre of both military and economic power. A rapid industrialisation would have sucked workers from the rural South. Slaves too. That would damage the economy and hurt landowners.

Virginia would also be the centre of 'the modern thinking' and sympathetic calls for the end of slavery would likely be voiced by liberal thinkers. This, combined with white labourers and black slaves finding something in common afterall in their working and housing conditions would see slaves sowing seeds not of cotton or grain, but of socialism.

Virginia was already leading the way in abolishing slavery.

Exactly. And would have become the political, economic and cultural powerhouse of the Confederacy and would have become increasingly distant from the rest of the Confederacy. With the west of the state providing coal, the coast being a mix of miltary policing, tariff controls against Union ports (and the USA finding innovate ways to avoid this) and booming in industry in it's own rights by the 1920's you have a potential powderkeg; A coalminer and a slave labourer would find common ground against distant and irrelevant estate owners and the Richmond intellegista and government machine. Poor housing, low pay, few rights. You would have a viable Labour and emancipation movement similar to Europe.

P.S This would make an interesting game :) Two competing nations and industrialisation yadda yadda

Highly doubtful Delaware goes to the CSA, Lincoln didnt exactly allow it to leave, but i dont think 1) the union, unless completely without bargaining power, allows it to go [too important for munitions and industry] and 2) the people of delaware would have opted for secession.

Maryland's a different question.

But I think Philadelphia becomes a much bigger player, and PA might have a population boom due to slaves crossing into the free north.  That might be interesting to see like 100 years out, if PA's politics become...quirky (as if they aren't now).

confederate survival was hard enough so i dont see them getting any of the disputed areas if they roll snake eyes and win

basically a south which lacks ohio, maryland, dc, delaware, kentucky, east tennesee, west virginia and arizona territory

If the Richmond intellegenista was liberal(it probably would be) though I think there would be a good chance it could lead a socialist movement making it less populist in nature. I could see Virginia electing a strong Social Democratic government.

The cards were very much more in the souths favor in 1862. Sorry but you're looking at it in an August 63 mode. When I first started this thread I said 1862. The south had a whole different worlds worth of leverage that early on. They had a lot of manpower still and their transportation system hadn't broken down as bad yet. That's what doomed the confederacy, they had thousands of tons of food at the end of the war but no way to transport it to the front lines.

If only Lee did'nt lose Special Order-191...

Do you really think the world would be a better place if the South had won?

No, I did'nt mean it that way at all! I was just saying imagine what history would have been like if the South had won the war.

I think an interesting what if scenario would have been the one where Lincoln allows the 7 southern states to secede.  I'm planning to do some studying and post my theory of what could have been.

Well after doing my research, my conclusion is that there was no way the Civil War could have been avoided.  Even if Lincoln had allowed the 7 states to secede and kept Virginia, NC, Arkansas, Tennessee (I think TN would have seceded anyway) there would have been conflicts over the territories and Maryland.  Just my opinion of course.

I think it was likely from 1783 onwards.