Talk Elections

General Politics => Economics => Topic started by: CARLHAYDEN on November 25, 2008, 11:05:17 PM



Title: When will undeployment rate reach 7.6%
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on November 25, 2008, 11:05:17 PM
The economy is rapidly shedding jobs.

I estimate than when the rate hits 7.6% there's going to be a lot of political discontent.

So, when do you think this will happen, and what will be the impact?


Title: Re: When will undeployment rate reach 7.6%
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 25, 2008, 11:13:11 PM
A while ago. Oh, you mean the BS official rate.


Title: Re: When will undeployment rate reach 7.6%
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on November 26, 2008, 12:30:14 AM

This. Although, the way to skyrocket the Unemployment is to allow the auto-industry to fail.


Title: Re: When will undeployment rate reach 7.6%
Post by: Mint on November 26, 2008, 12:49:26 AM

This. Although, the way to skyrocket the Unemployment is to allow the auto-industry to fail.
...Which it will probably continue to do regardless of whatever money we throw at it.


Title: Re: When will undeployment rate reach 7.6%
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 26, 2008, 02:26:55 AM
The economy is rapidly shedding jobs.

I estimate than when the rate hits 7.6% there's going to be a lot of political discontent.

So, when do you think this will happen, and what will be the impact?

What's it at now?  What's significant about 7.6%?


Title: Re: When will undeployment rate reach 7.6%
Post by: opebo on November 26, 2008, 12:52:25 PM

This. Although, the way to skyrocket the Unemployment is to allow the auto-industry to fail.
...Which it will probably continue to do regardless of whatever money we throw at it.

Absolute nonsense.  The auto industry was doing fine until government policy caused a depression.  Anyway lots of subsidized and nationalized firms have continued to provide both cars and employment, historically - British Leyland, Renault, Peugeot, Citroen, Fiat (?), and most Korean and to some extent Japanese auto makers...


Title: Re: When will undeployment rate reach 7.6%
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on November 26, 2008, 05:00:39 PM
The economy is rapidly shedding jobs.

I estimate than when the rate hits 7.6% there's going to be a lot of political discontent.

So, when do you think this will happen, and what will be the impact?

What's it at now?  What's significant about 7.6%?

 7.6% is a higher unemployment rate than the counrty has had in more than a decade, and twice the lowest unemployment rate of the past decade.


Title: Re: When will undeployment rate reach 7.6%
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on January 09, 2009, 09:59:17 AM
Thought I'd update this thread as I suspect that some posters may have gotten more realistic over the past six weeks.


Title: Re: When will undeployment rate reach 7.6%
Post by: opebo on January 09, 2009, 11:58:44 AM
Thought I'd update this thread as I suspect that some posters may have gotten more realistic over the past six weeks.

You mean they may have become more pessimistic?


Title: Re: When will undeployment rate reach 7.6%
Post by: Sam Spade on January 09, 2009, 01:27:06 PM
Not only is it not 7.6% in the more realistic number (U-6), but also the government likes to add a number of fake jobs in its early part of the year reports.  So, it might be a while before we get there.


Title: Re: When will undeployment rate reach 7.6%
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 09, 2009, 01:51:14 PM
Today's fake number is 7.2% (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/10/business/economy/10jobs.html?_r=1&hp). Today's real number is 13.5% (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm), and rising rapidly.


Title: Re: When will undeployment rate reach 7.6%
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on January 10, 2009, 12:04:10 PM
Thought I'd update this thread as I suspect that some posters may have gotten more realistic over the past six weeks.

You mean they may have become more pessimistic?

Previously 44% of those responding to the survey said we would not reach 7.6% unemployment.

Remember, "pessismist" is the name an optimist calls a realist!

I suspect that when February's numbers are in we will have hit (or exceeded) the 7.6%.


Title: Re: When will undeployment rate reach 7.6%
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on February 06, 2009, 03:08:42 PM
Thought I'd update this thread as I suspect that some posters may have gotten more realistic over the past six weeks.

You mean they may have become more pessimistic?

Previously 44% of those responding to the survey said we would not reach 7.6% unemployment.

Remember, "pessimist" is the name an optimist calls a realist!

I suspect that when February's numbers are in we will have hit (or exceeded) the 7.6%.

Ahem,

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090206/economy.html?.v=14


Title: Re: When will undeployment rate reach 7.6%
Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on February 06, 2009, 03:13:46 PM
I suspect that when February's numbers are in we will have hit (or exceeded) the 7.6%.

Ahem,

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090206/economy.html?.v=14

these were January's numbers, not February's numbers


Title: Re: When will undeployment rate reach 7.6%
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on February 06, 2009, 03:35:13 PM
Are you predicting that the February numbers will be lower?  If so, please make that clear.

And notice, I said when the February numbers came out, the unemployment rate would reach (or exceed) 7.6%.

It happened a few weeks earlier than I expected.



Title: Re: When will undeployment rate reach 7.6%
Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on February 06, 2009, 03:41:49 PM
Are you predicting that the February numbers will be lower?  If so, please make that clear.

no, I think we're headed for a min of 8.5%, for sure.

---

And notice, I said when the February numbers came out, the unemployment rate would reach (or exceed) 7.6%.

It happened a few weeks earlier than I expected.

alright, relax


Title: Re: When will undeployment rate reach 7.6%
Post by: Sam Spade on February 06, 2009, 04:41:44 PM
U-6 went from 13.4% to 13.9% adjusted.

I should note that if you remove the seasonal adjustments garbage, you get:

U3 = 8.5% unadjusted; U6 = 15.4% unadjusted.

Seasonal adjustment usually means that the after-holiday January layoff spree gets under-stated.  Other data in there suggests to me that a lot of independent contractors, sole proprietors and small businesses went bust last month.

What that means overall is that the adjusted numbers (7.6% and 13.9%) are likely to get revised downward.  By a good bit too.

Ignoring all the garbage that will be added through the next six months or so, I think a reasonable U-6 number guess at the end of 2009 is 20%.

That's a depression, folks.


Title: Re: When will undeployment rate reach 7.6%
Post by: Matt Damon™ on February 06, 2009, 05:05:09 PM
J.J. must be so hard right now


Title: Re: When will undeployment rate reach 7.6%
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 06, 2009, 06:33:36 PM
A deluge in his pants, if you will.


Title: Re: When will undeployment rate reach 7.6%
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on February 06, 2009, 06:47:30 PM
The next question is whether the unemployment rate  (U3) will reach or exceed 9.6% between now and the 2010 elections?


Title: Re: When will undeployment rate reach 7.6%
Post by: Sam Spade on February 06, 2009, 07:11:18 PM
The next question is whether the unemployment rate  (U3) will reach or exceed 9.6% between now and the 2010 elections?

I dunno.  How much do you think the numbers can be fudged?


Title: Re: When will undeployment rate reach 7.6%
Post by: Eraserhead on February 06, 2009, 09:13:14 PM
This all Obama's fault. The entire rise occurred during his first two weeks in office.