Talk Elections

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/politics/topstories/stories/120908dntexsharp.42adf930.html

AUSTIN — Former Comptroller John Sharp announced Monday that he will run to succeed Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, who could resign next year to challenge the Republican governor.

Mr. Sharp, a moderate Democrat and political veteran, said he will file the paperwork Jan. 1 to begin raising money for the race.

Ms. Hutchison has opened an exploratory committee to challenge Gov. Rick Perry in the 2010 Republican primary for governor.

That would trigger a political scramble for her Senate seat. Her term runs through 2012, but if she leaves Washington before then, a special election would be held to fill the seat.

On Monday, Mr. Sharp, 58, served notice he intends to seek the seat whenever it opens.

"I will be a candidate whether the election is in 2012 or any time before then," Mr. Sharp said. "Texans face tough challenges that call for innovative solutions, and that’s what our campaign is all about."

Mr. Sharp is a pro-life Catholic with potential appeal to rural and suburban voters who are among the state GOP’s most reliable voters in recent elections. He has long been seen as the Democrat best positioned to win a statewide race, though he lost bids for lieutenant governor in 1998 and 2002. The latter came against Republican David Dewhurst, a potential GOP candidate for Ms. Hutchison’s seat.

The Sharp camp was heartened by a recent survey by a GOP pollster that found the Republican Party is losing support among Texas voters who say they are more open to voting for Democrats.

Republican consultant Craig Murphy said that there are some demographic trends that Democrats hope will benefit them “but not something overnight” likely to shake GOP dominance in state politics.

"We just had an election, and that's a poll to beat all polls," he said, noting Texas voters supported John McCain for president and re-elected Republican John Cornyn to the Senate.

Mr. Sharp’s early announcement was seen as an effort to discourage other potential Democrats. Among potential Democratic contenders are Houston Mayor Bill White; former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, and Dallas state Rep. Rafael Anchia.

Among Republicans mentioned are state Sen. Florence Shapiro, former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams, Texas Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams, and Mr. Dewhurst.

Mr. Sharp served in the state Legislature from Victoria and was elected to the Texas Railroad Commission and as comptroller.

He and Mr. Perry were students together at Texas A&M but became politically estranged until 2006, when San Antonio megachurch pastor John Hagee brokered a reconciliation that led to the governor appointing Mr. Sharp to lead a commission to craft a property tax overhaul.

Mr. Sharp was instrumental in crafting the new tax code that cut school property taxes and created a new business tax. He works for the Dallas-based business tax-consulting firm Ryan & Co.

Yay! Sharp is probably the only Democrat in Texas, besides Mayor Bill White, who can win the open seat.

He's the last Democrat to be elected statewide in Texas, so I feel good about it

Another seat that the pads the Democratic numbers but is really just another Republican

Party membership is almost as important as ideology when it comes to technical cloture votes.


And hell, running a moderate who can win > losing to a Cornyn

Ironically, the pro-life movement would gain with a Hutchison-Sharp switch.

There's not even a picture on his wiki. Maybe that says something. :\

*Google image search*

My kind of Democrat.

()

Sharp is the one on the left, not the one with the meticulously-styled hair. :P

Will be interested in seeing Sam's analysis of why Sharp can't win. I'm guessing he'll say that he has a ceiling of 46-47 percent statewide.

Too bad we didn't have a joke candidate in the 2006 Gubernatorial race; that was our one (and maybe only for a while) chance to actually win something in Texas.

I don't remember why Sharp didn't run in 2006. He very likely could have won (with like 37% of the vote, but a win's a win :P).

Corrected.  :)

As to Nym's question, since this will be a special election, you can't make the types of assumptions that I think Nym wants me to make.  ;)  In fact, throw most of your assumptions out of the window.

Special elections for open Texas Senate seats are weird.  Usually, you get tons of candidates who split the vote a million ways and the top two who survive that mess get to the runoff.

My first concern for Sharp is getting past this jungle primary.  Especially if there's a Hispanic or Black in the mix.

The article theorizes that he announced early to intimidate them.  Who knows if it will work though.

Also, isn't Hutchison at least somewhat likely to retire in 2009, making her replacement a normal election?

Hey, I'd love to hear you say Sharp can win. :) Just trying to predict your predictions in advance, that's all.

I have to think Sharp would have trouble matching Obama's performance in the suburban areas, which would kill any chance he'd have of winning. Then of course there's the fact that Obama being in office hurts any Democrat in the rural parts of the state, even Sharp (just him less so than others).

But yeah, obviously special elections are weird. Turnout as always is critical. Obviously Sharp could win if the GOP comes up with a bad candidate (gotta think there's a deep bench in Texas though...just a matter of whether there's a divisive primary and all probably).

I would be more concerned about him getting past the jungle primary first.

In a special election, obviously minority turnout would be much lower than normal, especially if Sharp was the candidate.  However, Sharp has performed well in rural Texas before, and the fact that he is pro-business, pro-life, etc. (i.e. conservative Democrat) would help him in a two-person race.

He might could reach 47% in a two man race.  No Obama to bring out the blacks in 2010.  Sharp can't even have Obama campaign for him as that would cut into the white vote he absolutely needs.  Can't have your cake and eat it too.

Moderate?  Tie him to padding Harry Reid's majority in congress which will show it's colors over the next two years.  It won't wash in Texas, but keep telling yourself that Democrats will gain the seat.  Cornyn got 55% of the vote for reelection and that was a year with Obama bringing out record minority support.  Won't have that in 2010.

Next.

What would you say is Obama's electoral vote ceiling in 2012, BTW?

Knowing the black/Hispanic legislators in Texas, I doubt it.  He's probably worked more with Rick Perry than with them, anyways.

The two times I remember Texas having the special election, the jungle primary attracted tons of candidates - like somewhere between 50 and 70 (jimrtex would know for sure).  It's hard to keep politicians from running when all they have to do is finish in the top two in that mess (and 20-25% might be enough) and they don't have to give up their other seats.


If Hutchinson resigns anytime during 2009 or before the 62nd day after the primary election in 2010 (which is early, but still), a special election must be called.  Otherwise, it happens at the next general election (but I don't think you can straight-ticket vote however).

Texas law requires certain people to not hold a different elected office when running for another in a primary, but I don't know whether Hutchinson is affected by that.  I suspect she would leave before the primary anyway.

I'm sorry, guys, but a Texas U.S. Senate seat in a midterm or special? Am I the only one thinking that this guy still has a very steep hill to climb regardless of how moderate or conservative he may be?

I tend to agree. It would have to take a very weak GOP Candidate and strong almost 2008 style minority turnout. Who do you think should run on the GOP side. I really like Jeb Hensarling but I don;t know if he would run. I have seen some of the other GOP Reps on C-span some are pretty good but few look like they have the caliber of higher office.


I'll opine on this myself. I would say 400 to 420 if we nominate a real born loser and he is super popular.

Wait for the opposition to become clear

My suspicion, knowing nothing of Texan politics, is than the primary might be a bit on the crowded side and a less-than-awesomely electable person may rise to the top.  I mean, the GOP would still be favored, but it won't  be the ideal candidate... I suspect.  I don't know how much control the Texas and National GOP has over influencing candidacies in Texas (like, pressuring out unwelcome competitors).

This is reasonably likely to end up as a crapshoot where a lot of people compete since they won't have to give up their dayjobs.  I would be slightly inclined to say that Sharp has an easier time clearing the field than anyone who comes to mind on the GOP side.  In addition, if Barack Obama pledges through backchannels to endorse Sharp, it may discourage competitive competition to sharp's candidacy (and Obama could always endorse/campaign for Sharp even if he faces honest minority candidates).  Even further, aren't most of the prominent Democrats white in this state?  Noriega just got his small balloon popped...


Anyway, my completely uninformed guess is that Sharp, with support from the DNSC, will win the primaries and will face someone farther to the right than Cornyn.  But Obviously Sharp would still be favored to lose.

Clearly, you know nothing about Texas elections.  So please stop posting about it.  Hutchinson made it out of the 1993 special election and she was far from the most conservative R on the ballot then.  You also didn't even mention the fact that Gene Kelly (D) will be on the ballot, causing problems for any Anglo Democrats, as he normally does.

One other note: I'm pretty sure that (and I need to re-read Texas election law to make sure), during the time in-between the resignation and the special election, Perry gets to appoint someone (who may or may run).  They may or may not run/have institutional support.

Anyway, if I had to wager, the Republican who will probably be their favored candidate is Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst.  In fact, I suspect he may cut Hutchinson a deal for her people's support in exchange for his support of her as Governor.  That would make it Battle #3 between Dewhurst and Sharp, should both make it to the final round (presently Dewhurst leads 2-0).

I imagine that most people on the forum are not from Texas, but we're still able to provide our inclinations filled with infinite I'm not sure's without your attempted internet bullying.  Obviously people will make mistakes, but posts filled with reservations are hardly the ones to target. 

At least when I try and be an internet macho, I do it on less humble posts. 

God knows the Texas Republican Party hasn't changed at all since then, when winning a statewide race was still something to be proud of and not taken for granted, and the factions hadn't amped up their fighting for nominations because the prize had yet to become so certain and so valuable. ;)

Do you think Dolly Madison McKenna will make a run in a 2010 primary?

Mayor White said he will run according to this morning's Chronicle.  Therefore, Sharp doesn't even have a clear path amongst Democrats.

Kay Baily has hinted that she will resign late next year allowing Perry to appoint a Republican.  That gives the incumbent Republican the poll position for any special election.  Very uphill for any Democrat to take Kay Baily's seat.

This one stays R.  I might add that we aren't talking a 2012 November presidential election.  No Obama on the ballot to get out the black vote (see the Georgia senatorial runoff three weeks ago).  Even in November with maximum Obama turnout numbers among minorities, Cornyn won his race by 12 points.

I know my state and for the reasons I stated above, this is a race that won't seriously be in question.

Another 55-45 statewide race in Texas. Pass.

"Well I know my state, and I know Dole will win re-election in North Carolina, even 2 years before the election."

:)

I believe I said "for the reasons I stated above".  Those reasons are sound although I'd be happy to hear anyone's opinions to the contrary.

I would also be happy to see the Democratic Party drop millions of dollars into a campaign here.  Ten to 20 million would be even better.  I suspect that won't happen.  In 2010, the Dem money will be pumped into Ohio, NH, NC, and, should Jeb opt not to run, Florida.

Having White and Sharp in the same contest pretty much, in my mind, assures that neither of them get out.

That being said, of the two, White would be the more likely one to get into the runoff.  Of course, unlike Sharp, White has zero chance of winning a special election runoff.

I agree Sharp would be the stronger candidate in a runoff with the R although still a substantial underdog.  Having White in this does nothing but seal the final fate of Sharp.  And Sam is right, White would not win a statewide race against the Republican, particularly an interum sitting Republican senator.

Frankly, I'm shocked White didn't announce for governor although my guess is Kay Baily scared him off of that one.

Republicans won't lose this seat.  It's still Texas.

Could Perry appoint himself to Hutchison's seat and trade places with her?

Hmmm.  Hadn't thought of that.  Legal, but politically I'm not sure that would fly.  Interesting....  Perry is not that popular in Texas BTW.

He'd have a better shot against White than Hutchison though, no?

I would think so.

Someone would try and primary him in the Senate race too though...?

I can think of a number of state office holding Republicans who probably wake up night and say to themselves "why not me?"

The reason that John Sharp didn't run for anything in 2006, or endorse anyone, was that he wanted to be a non-partisan advocate for the business tax.  In 2005, Perry had appointed Sharp to head a commission to come with a proposal for a new tax structure. 

Meanwhile, the Texas courts ruled that the school property tax violated the Texas Constitution.  The Constitution forbids the levying of a statewide property tax, but the way that school financing is done, it is essentially required almost all school districts to levy the same tax.  If it hadn't been for the court decision, the report of the Sharp commission would have probably just been placed on a shelf.  Instead, Perry called a special session in 2006, conveniently held after the primary, but before school districts started their fiscal year.

Sharp became the chief spokesman, especially before legislative committees, for the business tax in combination with a reduction in the school property tax (which permitted enough discretion so that it was no longer considered to be being imposed by the State).  This gave the plan enough votes to get through the legislature, despite Republican defections.

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Texas law requires a special election for Senator at the next uniform election date (government entities, such as cities, school districts, and special districts have to hold their elections on one of these dates).  At one time there were 4 such dates per year - if February, May, August, and November.  Now only the May and November dates remain.  The governor can also discretionally set an earlier date between 36 and 50 days after the vacancy occurs.

In addition, if the vacancy occurs 63 or more days before the primary date in an even-numbered year, the special election is held in coincidence with the November general election, and there would be party primaries.  But because Texas has moved its primary to March (March 2nd in 2010), there are not 63 days in 2010 before the primary.

The governor may make a temporary appointment for senator, but because the election is such a short time later, there really isn't a big incumbency factor.  Ambitious candidates of either party are going to take their chance in a special election.  Because the special election is held on a different date than the general election, there are not restrictions for running for two offices at once.

If KBH runs for governor, she will have to file in late December 2009, or very early 2010.  The party primary is March 2, 2010, with any runoff on April 13th.

If she resigns around that time, the special election would be May 10th, with a filing deadline more or less coincident with the primary.  Candidates could conceivably file for the senate seat, then win their primary election, lose in the senate special, and run in the general election for the office for which they were nominated.

Or she could wait to resign.  If her term ended in 2011, no one would question her finishing out her term, while running for an office whose term begins about the same time. 

A mid-2010 resignation, could set up a special election coincident with the November general election.  In that case, candidates could not run for both senator and some other office.

Or she could wait even later, which would move the special election to May 2011.

I think the laws with regard to resigning an office with more than a year remaining on a term only applies to candidates for the legislature.  Tom Craddick's opponent this year was in the middle of a 4-year term on the Midland city council.  He eventually resigned, after it was argued that he should have been disqualified for not resigning first.

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The 1961 special election for LBJ's seat had 71 candidates.  Newspaper accounts at the time would be about the main candidates, and then have a subhead that would read say something like, "35, 36, 37".   Our RBH from Missouri has somewhere posted the list of the 71 candidates.  At that time the filing fee was $50.

The 1993 special election in which KBH was elected following Lloyd Bentsen's resignation to become Secretary of Commerce had 24 candidates.

The current filing requirements for a special election are $5000 or 5000 signatures, which is the same as for running for a statewide party nomination.  Over the past 6 senate primaries there have been a total of 44 candidates, 25 Democrats and 19 Republicans, or over 7 per election.  And that just gets your name on the primary ballot.

Perry could well appoint himself, but here's the problem with that.

If he does that, Dewhurst will become Governor.  IMO (just based on what I've observed), Dewhurst is the smartest man among the Republicans in statewide government right now in Texas.  He'll know well enough that he will be unlikely to beat Hutchinson, and even if he did, it would be bruising and ugly.

So, he would cut a deal with Hutchinson to get her people's support and run in the special Senate election where I suspect he'd have the advantage against Perry among Republicans (especially with Hutchinson support).  Presumably, he would also re-run for Lt. Governor again.

Lot of good Republican candidates.  Attorny general Abbot for example.  Important not to clutter things up too much in a special selection with too many party candidates.  Exactly what Sharp and White are doing to themselves.  Dilute the party vote too much and you don't get in the runoff.