Talk Elections

The letter makes it official that Emmanuel is resigning his seat. Blagojevich must now set a date for the special election (A seat that Blago held before Rahm). Here's what Lynn Sweet of the Sun-Times says (http://www.suntimes.com/news/sweet/1354120,CST-NWS-sweet30.article) about the contenders:

WE WANT BLAGO! WE WANT BLAGO! WE WANT BLAGO!

Rosty would do, too, I suppose.

Blagojevich v. Keyes!

Is any of the candidates a true friend of Polonia? (wondering if anyone else remembers that...)

Yes. The GOP needs another Cao.  :)

Cao is another Flanagan. You know the guy who did hold this seat.

And with that, my first post of 2009.

I have no way of analyzing a House Primary with a dozen different contenders

No, I don't know. Enlighten me.

The 1994 wave was so big that the GOP actually held a Congressional seat in the city of Chicago.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Patrick_Flanagan

Oh, how I long for the days of 1994. Flanagan went down pretty hard. So sad that Cao will probably go down just as hard or even worse.

The only reason he won in the first place is that Dan Rostenkowski was, well, another Dollar Bill.

And for those that missed it, Flanagan was defeated by none other than Blagojevich. Will Cao draw a challenge with such future notoriety?

This being N'awlins we're talking about, I wouldn't be surprised. :)

The election dates are set. The primary is set for Mar 3, and the general on April 7. The Gov followed the suggestions of the Cook Co Clerk and Chicago Board of Elections. April 7 is the municipal election, but it's result is not much in doubt. The letter from Emmanuel was too late to the Gov for them to use the Feb 24 suburban municipal primary date for the primary so that part of the district will have elections on consecutive Tuesdays.

I found a nice page on Prairie State Blue (http://www.prairiestateblue.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=0CCA5F4431C713AABF147C09A6492A3C?diaryId=4743) that runs down many of the top contenders.

The Dem committeemen failed to slate (http://www.suntimes.com/news/metro/blagojevich/1371536,rahm-emanuel-replacement-011009.article) anyone for the Mar 3 primary. State Rep. John Fritchey was very close to the needed 50%+1, which suggests some solid ground troop support may be available, even if the endorsement isn't.

An internal poll (http://progressillinois.com/2009/1/18/il-5-quigley-internal-poll) from Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley gives a look at primary prospects (http://mobile.chicagobusiness.com/device/article.php?mid=2&CALL_URL=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.chicagobusiness.com%2Fcgi-bin%2Fmag%2Farticle.pl%3FarticleId%3D31205). One big variable is whether or not Alderman Pat O'Connor decides to enter the race. With 55% undecided there's a lot of room for movement.

Without O'Connor:
Quigley: 19%
Feigenholtz: 11%
Fritchey: 8%

With O'Connor:
Quigley: 14%
Feigenholtz: 10%
O'Connor: 8%
Fritchey: 7%

Filing for the special primary closed yesterday. There are 26 candidates (http://www.elections.illinois.gov/ElectionInformation/SelectSearchType.aspx?id=26) before challenges (the link opens a search for the full list). The challenge period runs until next Monday, then those challenges will have to be resolved. There are 15 Dems, 6 GOPs, and 5 Greens at this point.

http://www.progressillinois.com/2009/1/20/feigenholtz-hit-for-negative-poll

Kinda sad for the GOP when there's almost as much Green candidates...?

Is the initial winner immediately the nominee, or is there a runoff if there's no majority?

That doesn't sound promising for primary candidates from the suburbs.  What percentage of the district is in Chicago proper versus the suburbs?

There is no runoff.

No runoff. The top vote-getter in each party gets the nomination.

like 90% of the IL-5 vote is in Chicago anyways, so it's not a huge loss to hold the primary on 3/3

That's a good estimate:

In the 2008 general 202,270 votes came from Chicago, 28,622 from suburban Cook.

In the 2008 primary 86,410 votes from Chicago, 7,996 from suburban Cook.

The primary is now only two and a half weeks away, and even here there is remarkably little coverage. That's weird given the number of significant politicians in the race to succeed Emanuel. Since the primary is tantamount to election in IL-5, I thought that the link to the Tribune's questionnaires (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/chi-09specialelectionprimary-htmlstory,0,4593940.htmlstory) would give some additional background.

If its a low turnout primary, I think Fritchey will take it.  It high turnout, Quigley.

Fritchey and Feigenholtz have both raised ~$500k, impressive for a run-off primary with little advance notice.  Not sure about Quigley, he did just get a resounding endorsement from the Sun.

Feigenholtz's latest ad:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qswlhCDzKCE&eurl

The primary is a  little over a week away. Here is the Sun Times summary of fundraising (http://www.suntimes.com/news/elections/1441411,fifth-district-candates-fund-raising-022009.article) to date.


Quigley has picked up the endorsement of both the Tribune and Sun Times.

epic win for Wheelan's campaign video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=op6K-glVU4E&eurl

That's fantastic.

*endorsed*

<3 <3 <3

the cussing is the best

This thread needs to be bumpted.

I predict Fritchey (low turnout)

It's amusing how the ad portrays Rahm in a negative light too.

Early comments from precincts this morning agree with a very low turnout today.

I predict Feigenholtz although I hope that Independents and Republicans turn out for Wheelan

I'd actually put fifty bucks on Sara

Thanks.  Please keep us updated.

The place for all Illinois news, is, as always, http://thecapitolfaxblog.com/

Although IL-5 stuff hasn't been updated since this morning

"Chicago Board of Elections spokesman Jim Allen says calls to the board’s Polish hotline are much higher than calls to any other hotline this morning."
-Very good for second-tier candidate Forys who might be on track to make a strong showing

Miller is hearing reports of a lot of Poles turning out.

Forys has a 7 vote lead!

Now Quigley is ahead with about a quarter of the precincts reporting

Looks like Quigley is on track to win a fairly high turnout affair.

Interestingly, he used to date Sara Feigenholtz

()

Also note that this election is relevant because IL-5 is a fairly powerful district (look at the last few owners of the seat).


This race also taught the SEIU how to properly waste $250k of expensive ads through investing in Feigenholtz

I thought Quigley was a reformer in Cook County.

he is but he wasn't exactly the grassroots candidate

Link to results?

http://abclocal.go.com/wls/feature?section=news/politics&id=6097112

Quigley's up by 2,179 votes (4.28%) over Fritchey and by 2,662 votes (5.23%) over Feigenholtz with 496 of 578 (92.04%) precincts in, so assuming the outstanding precincts have the same average number of votes/precinct as those which have come in, Fritchey would have to lead Quigley by 49.55% or Feigenholtz would have to lead Quigley by 60.54% in order to catch him.  There's no way that's happening, as those two candidates each have under 20% of the vote now and even Quigley's at only 22.14%.  Nobody else could mathematically catch Quigley unless the outstanding precincts averaged many more votes than the ones now in.

In short, Quigley's won the primary and will of course easily win the special (general) election.

Oops, I didn't see Lunar's other thread (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93411.0).  Oh well.

LOL, apparently the Republican nominee is a FreeRepublic nutjob: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2198730/posts

I wonder whom the freepers will blame when she loses.

LOL

Did they not notice the Democratic primary had like at least 50,000 more votes and the Republican one had like 4,000?

There is no reason for another thread - henceforth both threads have been merged.

Corrected for accuracy.

They aren't mutually exclusive. 

I was actually thinking of interesting districts that routinely propel people to higher office.  Georgia's 6th (Newt, Isakson), Nevada's 1st (Reid, Ensign), ...

The election is today.  Polls close at 7PM Central Time. 

I don't have links to results - yet. 

It's a D+18 district, so there should be no surprises here. Emanuel handily won reelection with 74% in 2008.  His worst showing was 67% when he was initially elected in 2002.

Obama got 73% here in 2008, fwiw.

NBC 5 Chicago has an election results page here (http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/Chicago-Illinois-5th-District-Election-Results-April-7-2009.html).

They also link to the pages for the Cook County and Chicago elections results pages:
Chicago (http://www.chicagoelections.com/wdlevel3.asp?elec_code=33)
Cook County (minus Chicago) (http://www.voterinfonet.com/results/040709/SummaryElection040709RaceNum10.html?Party=ALL)

Illinois' State Board of Elections may or may not have results here (http://www.elections.state.il.us/ElectionInformation/GetVoteTotals.aspx?NavLink=1).

ABC 7 election results link here (http://abclocal.go.com/wls/feature?section=news/politics&id=6097112).

The over/under should be about 17%.  A Republican ward leader was telling folks to write in Abraham Lincoln instead of voting for her.  She has no support from the Chicago Republican machine, if one even exists.

Did everyone know she's a crazy Freeper? :P

Her posts on Free Republic came up in the scant media coverage of the election. 

First results:

Precincts Reported: 257 of 578
Mike Quigley (D)   11,669 (73.2%)
Rosanna Pulido (R)   3,126 (19.6%)
Matt Reichel (G)   1,139 (7.1%)

Precincts Reported: 326 of 578
Mike Quigley (D)   15,181 (73.7%)
Rosanna Pulido (R)   3,948 (19.2%)
Matt Reichel (G)   1,475 (7.2%)

Lower turnout than I expected. But I guess I should've known better.

I believe that's from the Chicago portion of the district.

I can't tell.  It's from ABC 7's webpage.  Neither the Chicago or Cook County sans Chicago elections pages have results yet.

A little more:

Precincts Reported: 341 of 578
Mike Quigley (D)   15,977 (73.5%)
Rosanna Pulido (R)   4,184  (19.3%)
Matt Reichel (G)   1,571  (7.2%)

The Trib had the same numbers but claimed they were Chicago only.

Could be Chicago-only.  More in:

Precincts Reported: 384 of 578 (66.4%)
Mike Quigley (D)   19,070 (70.7%)
Rosanna Pulido (R)   6,027   (22.4%)
Matt Reichel (G)   1,858   (6.9%)

That probably included some suburban votes.  Suburb-only Cook tally:

Precincts Counted: 37 of 92 (40.22%)
Candidates   Votes   %
Mike Quigley (DEM)   2,869   58.54%
Matt Reichel (GRN)   257   5.24%
Rosanna Pulido (REP)   1,775   36.22%

I haven't seen results this shocking since Jackie Speier was elected.

Come on Rosanna stay over 20%, that will make it a mandate.

Precincts Reported: 463 of 578 (80.1%)
X Mike Quigley (D)   24,369 (69.4%)
Rosanna Pulido (R)   8,435   (24.0%)
Matt Reichel (G)   2,332   (6.6%)


Mandate for what?  Not totally blowing a special election with especially low turnout?

i'm more interested in CA-32 now.  Glancing at Chu's website, it's weird she includes the headline "California Race May Expose Ethnic Rifts"

http://www.judychu.net/PDF/rollcall022409.pdf

Clearly this is a referendum against Obama.

Clearly this is a special election with extremely low turnout in a heavily Democrat-leaning district that has little meaning outside IL-5.

Anyway, 84.1% in:
Precincts Reported: 486 of 578
X Mike Quigley (D)   25,563 (69.3%)
Rosanna Pulido (R)   8,893   (24.1%)
Matt Reichel (G)   2,435   (6.6%)

With almost 94% in:
Precincts Reported: 543 of 578 (93.9%)
X Mike Quigley (D)   28,343 (69.7%)
Rosanna Pulido (R)   9,653   (23.7%)
Matt Reichel (G)   2,691   (6.6%)

With 572 of 578 precincts reporting:

Quigley     30,109
Pulico        10,509
Reichel        2,868

The six precincts still outstanding are all Chicago precincts and all from wards 1 (precinct 7), 31 (precincts 15 and 28), 40 (precinct 23) and 43 (precincts 29 and 53)

Clearly this is a referendum against Mike Quigley and Rosanna Pulido. :P

The primary and the general have been referenda against the recent tax and fee hikes by the Cook County board. Quigley had been the obvious outspoken critic in the primary, and Democrats as whole wore some generic blame (taxes along with the newest Blago indictment) in the general.

What kind of Green is Matt Reichel?

a youngin' that ran in the Democratic primary until he couldn't get enough signatures.

I knew I recognized Pulido's name from somewhere previously. Sure enough:

http://www.splcenter.org/intel/intelreport/article.jsp?pid=1532

A freeper and enough of an anti-immigrant extremist to be profiled by the Southern Poverty Law Center. Nice.

She's on the hit list of the Southern Policy Law Center.   So what?  Being against illegal immigration is not against the law - yet.  Though if extremist left-wing organizations like the SPLC ever got their way, it would be.

Pulido's organization, F.A.I.R., hasn't earned its listing as a hate group "because they're opposed to illegal immigration". See the following detailed report from SPLC:

http://www.splcenter.org/intel/intelreport/article.jsp?aid=846

Here's a good--almost charitable--summary:

"Founded in 1979, FAIR has long been marked by anti-Latino and anti-Catholic attitudes. It has mixed this bigotry with a fondness for eugenics, the idea of breeding better humans discredited by its Nazi associations. It has accepted $1.2 million from an infamous, racist eugenics foundation. It has employed officials in key positions who are also members of white supremacist groups. Recently, it has promoted racist conspiracy theories about Mexico's secret designs on the American Southwest and an alternative theory alleging secret plans to merge the United States, Mexico and Canada. Just last February, a senior FAIR official sought "advice" from the leaders of a racist Belgian political party."

Even a cursory review of the facts shows FAIR isn't merely opposed to "illegal" immigration, but ANY immigrants (other than white Europeans, of course).

The KKK is a hate group with a detailed unabashed white supremacist philosophy which it has channeled for decades into organized acts of violence and terrorism; FAIR, by contrast, is organized general nativist xenophobia which it channels into racist (but apparently non-violent) invective. With that obvious distinction noted, however, saying FAIR is listed as a hate group simply because it opposes illegal immigration is like saying the Klan is so listed merely because they oppose affirmative action.

Just curious: If the SPLC truly was "an extremist left-wing organization", would it still investigate and list as hate groups various Black Separatist organizations including Nation of Islam? (It does)

Anyhoo, my point to this before jacking the thread (sorry--bad newbie! bad!) was concurring that Pulido's got serious credentials as a wingnut. Not that it mattered as, as has been pointed out, the second coming of Jesus--or even Harry Carey--couldn't win in this district running as a Republican.