Talk Elections

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QUEENS ADDED

I think Obama's best district was 57; McCain polled like 1% there. McCain's best was 48. Both are in Brooklyn and there's only one district between them. I think 48 is Dov Hikind's district.

If the lines look a little wonky in places it's because I drew the district outlines myself and racial gerrymandering is as evil to draw on such a small scale as it is morally.

2008 or 2000? (it refers to Obama and McCain, but is in the 2000 forum)

Anyhow, I'm surprised there are several assembly districts in Brooklyn voting for McCain. Do you know anything about them, Al?

^ Pretty sure those are Orthodox Jewish neighborhoods. I think the dark blue one is Boro/Borough Park. I would recommend reading about it on Wikipedia if you're curious.

I think the southernmost part of Brooklyn might be more like Staten Island--working class whites, probably mostly of Italian and Irish ancestry. But I'm not positive on that.

Basically, these are areas that aren't going to like a black guy named Hussein. ;)

I think this map is worth reposting now:

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Green=White
Blue=Black
Red=Hispanic
Yellow=Asian
White=No majority

Ah... it's 2008... I'll ask the mod to move it then...


Mostly working class residentialish. Basically no Blacks. Depending on the district, we're talking lots of Orthodox Jews (I think (most of?) Borough Park is in 48) or lots of Italians (Russians as well in the easternmost one). Bay Ridge is more affluent (and more Irish) and voted for Obama, though is in the same district as part of Staten Island so is blue on the map.

I find this kind of surprising, since Crown Heights, infamously, has a few Hasidim of its own. I mean, I knew most of them left after the riots but if this is true they must be essentially all gone.

Don't know how the % black compare in the very black districts of NYC, but if there are other equally black districts a little less Obama, then the obvious lesson is that the West Indies vote was around 100% for Obama as opposed to his native black 95. Maybe they don't have the 1 in 20 evangelical nutters coming from the islands.

Just double-checked and it was 1.89%.

Well there you go. Now that I look at the map a little closer, the international HQ of Chabad Lubavitch on Atlantic Ave. is two and a half blocks east of this district's boundary, so maybe they're very concentrated right around the building in the next district over. (I mean, the ones in this area- obviously the main concentration is in Boro Park)

Anyway, cool map. Where are you getting the results from?

A little insight re: the McCain areas in Brooklyn...

From the upper-left going to the lower right are Bay Ridge (Norwegian/Irish/mixed-white), Borough Park (Jewish), Midwood (Jewish), Bensonhurst (Italian), Bath Beach (Italian), Gravesend (Italian), Marine Park (Irish), Sheepshead Bay (mixed-white), and Brighton Beach and Manhattan Beach (Russian/Ukrainian Jews; aka "Little Odessa"). 

The two Obama areas surrounded by McCain areas in Brooklyn are Dyker Heights (mixed-white; affluent) and Coney Island (Black/Hispanic).

Bay Ridge, of course, is actually a Democratic area--but that district is the same as the southeastern Staten Island one, and that area of Staten Island is the most intensely Republican part.

Anyway, very nice map. What are the chances for a map by City Council district or Senate district?

Dyker Heights is very affluent, but is pretty much Italian and is partially in #46 (the red district amidst the blue which is mainly Bay Ridge and in #49 (the blue district to the right below 48)

From the look of the Assembly maps and my knowledge of the area, the part in #46 appears to be the most affluent part of Dyker Heights, if that helps.

The strongest McCain parts of Brooklyn will undoubtedly be the Italian parts (even if affluent, like Dyker Heights), the Orthodox Jew parts (note the area where Williamsburg is within Brooklyn is shaded lighter red as well) and the Russian parts.  McCain probably won many of these precincts, I suspect.  The Russians really don't like black people, when I've talked to them, at least.  :P

Mafia Families for McCain!

I look forward to the Queens map. 

New York Italians hate a black (but we already knew that). Hopefully they'll fear Obama's powers a little less in '12.

New York Italians hate everyone. 

are you trying to suggest that race might somehow be related to how people in NYC vote?  I find that suggestion offensive and preposterous

Let's not give people the wrong impression here. While whites may be the ONLY people in NY to vote Republican, it's not like there's some shortage of white liberals in NYC.

I actually know quite a few black people who voted for McCain (I'm serious).

Just because...

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Map shows % leads for the State Assembly elections (2008). Loads of uncontested races, obviously.

The *most* Republican district on there was a gerrymander to protect Brooklyn's last Republican assembly member IIRC.
Fell in 2006, IIRC. In which case the 2008 result is, well, wow.

For reference: The 2005 Mayoral results by AD

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A map of 2004 would be interesting.

Here's the 04 results

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Great stuff, though you might want to remove my signature from them :)

What is that Kerry > McCain AD in Brooklyn?

AD49.  Mainly Bensonhurst.  Historic home of Italians, though the Russians and Asians have moved in, and the Italian population is getting older.  Has a pretty ugly racist history (not to mention Mafia history).

Need I say more.

To verify or dispel any suspicions

NYC Mayor, Dem Primary, 2005. Ferrar in red, Weiner in blue, Fields in green

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Possibly.

Sad to say, but it's more likely is that I did only some quite insufficient research and jumped to conclusions somewhere... maybe a list with Dem and Rep by AD votes that, like, didn't point out that they were for the same guy, and where he had more R votes in 04 but more D votes in 06. Or something along those lines. Together with the district's bizarro borders.

It looks like Weiner won some of the blacker parts of Brooklyn, though everything else seems to break down along racial lines.

Only because there are Jews in those areas as well.

Because he's Jewish.

Most obvious statement of this year (so far).

Franken had no problem winning the black parts of the Twin Cities (in both the primary and general).

nobody caught that that was a phallic joke yet?

Wow, this Dov Hikind guy sounds like a real fascist. Aside from his insane nationalism and racism he also spoke out against gay marriage and compared homosexuality to incest. I'd have to vote for the Conservative Party candidate as the most liberal candidate running. Pretty scary someone would have to make a vote like that in New York City.

LOL

Wow. Yeah, I totally missed that.

I wasn't aware of any Republican areas existing in Brooklyn. I thought they were all imprisoned on Staten Island. When was the last time Brooklyn was won by a Republican Presidential candidate? Was it 1924 when NYC voted for a GOP Prez for the last time?

I did a little research. Looks like he was one of those nuts who went on about the Passion of the Christ being anti-semitic...

From Wiki:

The Passion of the Christ
In 2003, Hikind and a group of supporters protested Mel Gibson's film The Passion of the Christ. He led about 50 Jewish leaders and supporters to the Fox News Corp. offices in Manhattan in a demonstration, chanting "The Passion is a lethal weapon against Jews."[6] Hikind was vocal in his anger against the movie, saying: "It will result in anti-Semitism and bigotry. It really takes us back to the Dark Ages ... the Inquisition, the Crusades, all for the so-called sin of the Crucifixion of Jesus." After a News Corp. spokesman announced that they had passed on the film, Hikind warned other movie companies that they too should not distribute the film.[7]

What an asshat. Yeah, remember all of that worldwide anti-Semitism as a result of the movie.  ::)

Wow, we actually have an election here where both of us would vote for the same candidate (Assuming that you would vote for the Conservative Party candidate as I obviously would.)

It looks like he won >90% black areas, though...

Uh, Norm Coleman isn't a black Democrat.

There's a lot of racial gerrymandering in Brooklyn, in case you hadn't noticed.  The Italian, Russian and Orthodox Jews hate black people and yes, there are a number of those communities in Brooklyn.

Which ADs are you referring to?

Especially in the general, against his Jewish Republican opponent

And the primary against his non-Jewish Democratic opponent.

This is such an incredibly stupid comparison that I just want to slap you across the face right now. Seriously.

BRTD, you are like an inch away from me using this as unflattering signature quote fodder

Fields obviously had less than complete control of the Black vote.
Seems there may have been a Southern vs Caribbean element to that.

Literal LOL here.

I suspect the Caribbean (black) votes were mostly just against Ferrer. And Weiner was the only real vote against Ferrer by the end.

Didn't help that Fields was from Manhattan, either.

Do you know how this matches up with Congressional districts? I saw on swingstateproject that McCain won Brooklyn's portion of NY-8, NY-9, and came close in Brooklyn's portion of NY-13.

Have difficulty believing that McCain won NY-8; Kerry won it by like 45pts and it includes some really, really strong districts for Obama with higher turnouts than the Hassidic areas in Brooklyn. NY-9 is possible, I guess, though we need Queens figures to tell.

I think he meant the Brooklyn areas of NY-8 and NY-9. Bush probably won the Brooklyn areas of NY-9, too. The Queens part is where the Democrats are.

Correct, the Brooklyn portions of each. Though in both cases, Brooklyn's portions of votes were small. In addition to Queens being Democratic, most of NY-8 is in Manhattan, including some heavily Democratic areas.

Huh... I am actually really surprised that McCain carried any districts in Brooklyn.  He didn't even carry any in Pittsburgh (he lost one by a single vote).

Can someone explain?

Wow.  Just wow.

Someone has (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=91352.msg1889927#msg1889927) :P

In defense of world-wide antisemitism, its not like they ever needed a reason before.

Thanks, but even still.  I would expect McCain to poll well in those areas, but not win them.

I know they aren't exactly huge fans of the "schwarzers" there, but you would think if McCain could win there, he would have at least come close in an Upper Eastside District.

Really?  In this election, areas like those were practically complete antitheses of each other.

I know, but what I am saying is that I am just quite surprised that McCain got trounced in the parts where the Republicans should, in theory, be the strongest, while carrying working class NYC.  Like I said, I'm not totally shocked, but it just seems odd.  If McCain had a 40% showing anywhere in Brooklyn, I would have thought that pretty good.

Not to pull a BRTD, because I know the comparison isn't that close, but Obama trashed McCain in Squirrel Hill, which is Pittsburgh's Jewish neighborhood.  After what he said about us out here, I find it odd that McCain carried not a district in this city, while he didn't do half bad in New York.

Actually, when I said "district" I meant to say that McCain didn't even carry a single ward here.

Well, certain (better off) bits of it anyway. He didn't exactly do well in the Bronx :P


Pretty sure that McCain only really did well in Hassidic areas; correct me if I'm wrong (please do, btw. Pittsburgh is interesting) but I don't think that Squirrel Hill has many Hasidim.

Btw, do you have, like, a map of the wards and ward results for Pittsburgh?

Some Russian areas as well.

Ah, the district does extend a little further east than I remembered, yes.

Yes. Important to clarify. These are not "Jewish areas". If that were the case, it would include all of Manhattan south of 110th St. These are Hasidic Jewish areas (and some Orthodox areas)--they always vote strongly Republican. Bush won basically all the same areas of Brooklyn.

Ya, the blue area furthest to the east includes Brighton Beach.

I'd have to look at it precinct-by-precinct, of course.

Spitzer seems to have won them ;D

(Actually, I think Clinton, just about, did as well).

And some of the most Russian parts of it as well.

The mainstream non-Orthodox American Jewish population is very Democratic. The national exit poll, for instance, had (all) Jews at 78% Obama, the aggregate of state exit polls (which, it's worth noting, is a different and larger sample than the national one) had Obama at 76%, and Jewish respondents to the Gallup daily tracking in October were 74% Obama (77% if you redistribute the undecideds - source for all these at http://thesolomonproject.org/, the link under "headlines"). Meaning presumably that the not-all-that-religious were somewere in the 80's for Barack.

Does Pittsburgh have a lot of Italian areas? If so, the contrast between those and the NYC ones is perhaps more interesting, since I might guess (though I don't know at all) that they're more similar in non-political aspects.

the only Jewish Republicans I know are Russian Jews, and they're hard right. What's up with that?

Queens added!

I see Riker's Island went hard for the Democrat.  :P

Bayside is interesting, considering how Democratic neighboring (and even wealthier) Great Neck is.

Also, what happened at College Point?

Wait, what's the dark grey for?

Airport

I figured I'd post NYC's CD results, courtesy of swingstateproject. Some of these are quite intriguing. Obviously the majority black/hispanic districts (6, 10, 11, 12, 15, 16) were overwhelmingly Democratic, but here are the others:

(Obama percent first)

5   Queens (pt.)   67.02%   32.27%   

Also includes Nassau


.
   7      79.12%   20.37%   

.
   Bronx (pt.)   81.89%   17.73%   

.
   Queens (pt.)   74.00%   25.28%   
                           

.
   8      73.70%   25.45%   

.
   Brooklyn (pt.)   44.07%   55.31%   

.
   Manhattan (pt.)   85.55%   13.51%   

.
   9      55.32%   43.92%   

.
   Brooklyn (pt.)   42.16%   57.19%   

.
   Queens (pt.)   60.57%   38.62%   
   

.
   13      48.74%   50.56%   

.
   Brooklyn (pt.)   52.00%   47.18%   

.
   Staten Island   47.64%   51.70%   

.
   14      78.19%   20.92%   

.
   Manhattan (pt.)   77.43%   21.74%   

.
   Queens (pt.)   80.90%   18.05%   
                           

.
   17      Bronx (pt.)   86.87%   12.69%   

   though most of NY-17 is outside NYC.

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I am surprised that NY-7 was more Democratic than NY-8 and NY-14, since the latter two contain some very liberal parts of Manhattan. Also, NY-9 (consisting of parts of Brooklyn and Queens) was only 55.32% Obama. NY-9 had a large GOP swing from 2000 to 2004, which I had assumed was mainly a 9-11 bounce, but Obama ran slightly behind Kerry. Can anyone explain Obama's poor performance in this area.

I assume Nassau County still hasn't released full results, preventing SSP from calculating the CD results in CDs 2, 3, 4, 5?

So Brooklyn has more Republican areas than Queens. Interesting, especially Brooklyn is the borough I'd most like to live in.

Great Neck is heavily Jewish.

True, but so are the whites in Bayside. Bayside just has a lot of Koreans in the mix, and more blacks and Hispanics than Great Neck, which shouldn't really make it less Democratic.

Great Neck has a pretty large Asian population as well (the two high schools in Great Neck I believe are 25-30% Asian).   Great Neck is also more Jewish than Bayside.  I'm pretty sure Bayside has a sizeable Italian population as well something that Great Neck really doesn't have.

Yeah, but the parts of Brooklyn that voted McCain probably aren't the parts of Brooklyn you'd have much interest living in.

I think you'd find more Republicans in Queens, but the neighborhoods in Queens are more integrated, resulting in less defined "Republican"/"Democratic" areas. 

Not so sure on the Italian population in Bayside itself, but I just took another look at the districts map and noticed that the district also contains Whitestone, which I think is a very Italian and (non-Jewish) Eastern European area, generally Republican demographics in NYC.

Still wondering about College Point. Is that a coloration error on Al's part?

I think this is the issue.

Swing state has precinct level breakdowns, I know we had a precinct map of NYC on here not too long ago.  If we can dig that up we would be able to tell how certain areas went.

NY-8 has Borough Park and Brighton Beach.  It also has a substantially higher white population than NY-7.  NY-14 whites are RICH - not really with the NY-8 whites in Brooklyn.

NY-9 contains lots of working class Italians and Eastern Europeans, especially Russians, in Brooklyn (not to mention Jews).  Very few blacks (the CD has been bleached - only 4%).  You know how those folks above think about blacks.

Queens by Precinct

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=p7Hn_T5RBt3Svkhr2nrqYCA

map of the 26th A.D
http://www.vote.nyc.ny.us/pdf/maps/ad/ad26.pdf

It looks like McCain's strongest portion of the district was Whitestone, he did hae a few precincts in Bayside in which he did quite well in, but for the most part it appears Whitestone was his strongest area.

From personal experience, Bayside has; or used to have anyway, a huge Italian American population. Most I met were not too fond of the brown man ...

Great. That's where my New York relatives live.  :)

I know the scales are off, but does anyone know which ADs were among Obama's best in majority-white ADs?

Going by the AD map, it looks like that would be Joan Millman's Park Slope-Carroll Gardens-Brooklyn Heights district, AD 52, which is really no surprise. Park Slope is the sort of neighborhood where the Greens could outpoll the Republicans.

That district is colored D>90% on the map, while all of the other majority white districts are D>80% or less.

Here is an interesting statistic for you : In all 5 boroughs :

McCain won 806 Precincts average vote : Obama 138 McCain 243
Obama won 5263 Precincts average vote : Obama 373 McCain 62

Obama's best in white ADs:

AD       borough             Obama    McCain      
69   Manhattan    91.17%   7.96%
52   Brooklyn    90.85%   8.18%
66   Manhattan    88.10%   10.79%
67   Manhattan    84.30%   14.85%
74   Manhattan    84.19%   14.80%   

Anyone have more details on these...

#69 is the upper upper west side - Manhattan Valley, Morningside Heights, Bloomingdale.

#52 is Brooklyn Heights, Boerum Hill, Bay Ridge, Carroll Gardens and Cobble Hill.

#66 is Greenwich Village, SoHo, East Village and Tribeca.

#67 is the upper west side, and...hell, this (http://www.gothamgazette.com/graphics/2008/10/AD67.jpg)

#74 is east Manhattan (http://www.gothamgazette.com/graphics/district/assembly/074.gif), also kind of a weird district.

Are you two sure AD 69 is white majority? Yes, Morningside Heights is white-majority, but Manhattan Valley is overwhelmingly minority, and I can't imagine Morningside Heights being more than 60% or so white. (I suppose if you include Hispanic whites in the total as opposed to as a separate category, AD 69 might be majority white.) Plus, that district has Manhattanville, too, and Manhattanville has almost no whites at all.

AD 52 is Inner Brooklyn, the basic very liberal but also very white areas of brownstone Brooklyn

AD 66 is Greenwich Village (very liberal and artsy, and also the home of NYU), the West Village (very gay), the East Village (very liberal, artsy and gentrifying), SoHo (artsy and fashionable), and TriBeCa (wealthy and liberal)

AD 67 is the Upper West Side (wealthy and also very liberal, as contrasted with the even more wealthy but much less liberal and traditionally Republican Upper East Side, although obviously not anymore as both of its districts were solidly for Obama) and Hell's Kitchen, a recently gentrifying neighborhood with a very large gay population

AD 74 is Stuy Town (an enormous housing cooperative), Alphabet City (artsy and gentrifying but still very poor along the East River), Gramercy (obscenely wealthy around Gramercy Park, otherwise bland "Manhattan middle class", which means mostly actual families with $200,000-$500,000 incomes), and Kips Bay and Murray Hill (wealthy but fairly commercial, relatively few residents compared to the rest of the district). It also contains the UN at the very northern edge of the district, but of course they don't vote (which also lowers the vote total in Murray Hill, tons of diplomats and foreign nationals).

It is actually white-plurality according to the 2000 census (can't find more recent data). White + Asian would put it over 50% keeping in mind that Asians reflect voting patterns of an area moreso than blacks or Hispanics.

I'm surprised McCain even broke 10% in AD 66. I haven't spent that much time there but it certainly struck me as being one of the most liberal areas in the U.S. I wouldn't have been shocked if Nader had picked up as many votes as McCain actually.

Bay Ridge isn't in the 52nd.



Me too.

I'm a Republican Jew, and not Russian.

Good for you.

What's with Central Park and JFK Airport?  Who lives there?

Handful o'people, wherever.

My best guess on Central Park was homeless people (18 of them), but the median household income there is $18,750.  I guess if the homeless people make that much money anywhere, it's in Manhattan.  Racial stats (9-8-1 black-white-other) also match, if you're going to make anything of a ridiculously tiny sample size.

My next guess was that it was people whose address was misfiled.  Say, they live at 391 Central Park West but their residence was mislabeled 390 Central Park West -- the postal worker figured out the error, and delivered it correctly, but the Census never knew about it.  Another possibility is that there's "address cheating."  For instance, there's a UPS Store at the even-numbered 100 Central Park West, which appears to be in a building on the odd-numbered (non-park) side.  That may be because addresses there are so dense they had to make due.  It could be that the Census didn't realize those addresses are actually on the other side of the street, and counted them in Central Park.

As for the JFK Airport...looks like there are a few hotels, which often have resident managers.  JFK reports 28 people, gender split, some kids, 27 white although 7 also multiracial.  12 households, 9 owner-occupied.  So, uh...who knows/cares.

Even though I live near it and I drive through it every day when I go to work, I have never been able to figure out where the people who live in Fort Snelling (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Snelling,_Minnesota) (which is basically the airport) actually live.

You could always map some Census thing it's in by block.

Of course JFK Airport was white:

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The racial makeup of Rikers Island is... um... telling.