Talk Elections

Legislative elections will be held in September of this year. (The next Presidential election will be in 2010.) The left-wing Socialists won a landslide victory in 2005 over the right-wing Social Democrats and look likely to repeat that performance, albeit with a stronger far-left presence.

2005
PS: 45.0% (121 seats) [left-wing]
PSD: 28.8% (75 seats) [right-wing]
CDU: 7.6% (14 seats) [far-left coalition of communists and greens]
CDS/PP: 7.3% (12 seats) [ultra-religious conservatives and extreme neoliberals]
BE: 6.4% (8 seats) [more far-leftists]


New poll (http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/32856/socialists_keep_dominating_in_portugal/)
PS: 39.6%
PSD: 24.9%
CDU: 11.9%
BE: 10.1%
CDS/PP: 9.7%



Bono, I would imagine, is not happy.

drool

The CDU is really just the old Communist Party - that Green alliance partner is a joke. The BE is sorta half-Green half-Trot (*just* my cup of tea, then ;D ).

I am definitely not happy, but if you knew the sort of authoritarian antics the socialist government has been up to you wouldn't be either, trust me.

By the way, your description of CDS as "ultra-religious conservatives" is hilariously over the top. They're just a run-of-the-mill christian-democratic party.

I'll be voting for them, incidentally, since the current PSD leadership is possibly the most incompetent in its history and the current leader less charismatic than Walter Veltroni. Think Tories circa 2002.

This poll isn't surprising. It's looking like the PSD will destroy himself and there is no alternative to the PS. The leaders of the PSD are a joke and why should the people vote for this party when they make war against each other.

All people who says the PS government isn't good and not really socialistic, they will voting for the Communist Party/CDU (this is the authoritarian part of the far-left) or the Bloque Esquerda (this is the more libertarian part of the far-left). I think in the next election the PS don't get more than 50% of the seats, but they are the strongest power in the parlament and nothing is possible without the PS.

The CDS/PP isn't a Christian Democratic Party. I think Bono isn't right. The CDS/PP is a mixture of a ultraconservative catholic Party and a neo-liberal Party(like a ultra-FDP). I think that's not a good combination and this is the reason the never get more than 10%.

I speak not about things I haven't knowing. My father is from Portugal and I'm well informed about politics in Portugal. It's better like my English.

Hans, the current CDS leader, who is supposedly a member of its "liberal" wing, recently proposed abolishing co-payments in the National Health Service--note that these co-payments are something ridiculous as 10€ for a specialist visit, and half the people are already exempt anyway. If this is an "ultra-liberal" FDP analogue, then I'm sad for the state of liberalism in Europe.

If it`s the poorer people who're exempt, then yes that would be exactly what the FDP is entirely about.

Nobody believes when the CDS/PP make social promises. All of the politics in the last years was against the poor people and i don't see that is changing.

The leader of the CDS/PP, Paulo Portas, is a mixture between Guido Westerwelle  and a very bad parody of Jörg Haider. He wants to make a neoliberal + far-right-populist Politician, but he haven't the stature. He's more like a caricature. I can remember him as Defence minister and he wasn't a good one (i say only Iraq).

The economic politics of the CDS/PP  is far-right and in Social aspects it's a fascist party (abortion, drugs, law and order etc. etc.). In the political Matrix they have E 7,00; S 7,50. BTW The ultra-catholic wing makes not the politics i like, but the have more understanding for the wishes of normal people.

When you want that the political right can win elections in future, than you must hope the PSD make a comeback. Maybe that's happen, when they lose the next election and get a new leadership.

I have no clue which party I support in Portugal. Obviously not the Commies, Trots, and CDS/PP. And not the PSD nor PS.

Maybe whatever that monarchy party is called.

While the CDS/PP is infinitely preferable to LAOS and the election system is also better, I can't help but note that the extent of the similarities between Portugal and Greece are remarkable.

@Hashemite:

The monarchy Party, called PPM is maybe the right for you. Today it's a centrist green party


@Lewis:

I'm really no friend of the CDS/PP, but they are a pragmatic party and not like LAOS. The CDS/PP was some years in government and then the stupid ideas will be minimized ;-)

Ah, that's the one. It's a great party.

Yes. I know. I was merely damning with faint praise.

But, well. The (very approximate) economic situation. The year 1974. The country size. The (only comparative) weakness of regional faultlines. A system of representation that is somewhat proportional but still quite clearly favors major parties. And now - even though it's a recent development - they both have a major center-left party, a major center-right party, two pretty far left parties to their left, of which the more traditionalist one is still called Communist. And a rightwing party to their right.

Yes that's true. Portugal and Greece have many things in common, in political things ;). There is one big difference. The main center partys, from the left and from the right aren't in "war" like in Greece. The Portuguese people are more "cool". They aren't so ideological fundamentalist like Greece. In Portugal there isn't this "political dynasty" system and in Portugal the people don't eat Gyros :D

It was a boring afternoon for me and I convert the result of European election for Portugal into mandates of a general election. I know there will be another result in September or October but I find it very interesting.

The hypothetical result 2009 (2005)

Açores     PSD/PPD 3 (+1); PS 2 (-1); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 0 (NC)
Aveiro      PSD/PPD 7 (+1); PS 4 (-4); B.E. 1 (+1); PCP-PEV 1 (+1); CDS/PP 2 (+1)
Beja        PSD/PPD 0 (NC); PS 1 (-1); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 2 (+1); CDS/PP 0 (NC)

Braga      PSD/PPD 8 (+1); PS 6 (-3); B.E. 1 (+1); PCP-PEV 1 (NC); CDS/PP 2 (+1)
Bragança      PSD/PPD 2 (NC); PS 2 (NC); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 0 (NC)
Castelo Branco      PSD/PPD 3 (+2); PS 2 (-2); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 0 (NC)

Coimbra    PSD/PPD 4 (+1); PS 4 (-2); B.E. 1 (+1); PCP-PEV 1 (+1); CDS/PP 0 (NC)
Évora      PSD/PPD 1 (+1); PS 1 (-1); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 1 (NC); CDS/PP 0 (NC)
Faro      PSD/PPD 3 (+1); PS 3 (-3); B.E. 1 (+1); PCP-PEV 1 (+1); CDS/PP 0 (NC)

Guarda      PSD/PPD 2 (NC); PS 2 (NC); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 0 (NC)
Leiria      PSD/PPD 5 (NC); PS 3 (-1); B.E. 1 (+1); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 1 (NC)
Lisboa      PSD/PPD 15 (+3); PS 15 (-8); B.E. 7 (+3); PCP-PEV 7 (+2); CDS/PP 4 (NC)

Madeira      PSD/PPD 5 (+2); PS 1 (-2); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 0 (NC)
Portalegre      PSD/PPD 1 (+1); PS 1 (-1); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 0 (NC)
Porto      PSD/PPD 14 (+2); PS 14 (-6); B.E. 4 (+2); PCP-PEV 3 (+1); CDS/PP 3 (+1)

Santarém      PSD/PPD 4 (+1); PS 3 (-3); B.E. 1 (+1); PCP-PEV 1 (NC); CDS/PP 1 (+1)
Setúbal      PSD/PPD 3 (NC); PS 5 (-3); B.E. 3 (+1); PCP-PEV 5 (+2); CDS/PP 1 (NC)
Viana do Castelo      PSD/PPD 4 (+2); PS 2 (-1); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 0 (-1)

Vila Real      PSD/PPD 4 (+2); PS 1 (-2); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 0 (NC)
Viseu      PSD/PPD 5 (+1); PS 3 (-1); B.E. 0 (NC); PCP-PEV 0 (NC); CDS/PP 1 (NC)

PORTUGAL      PSD/PPD 93 (+21); PS 75 (-45); B.E. 20 (+12); PCP-PEV 23 (+9); CDS/PP 15 (+3)

In the next general election there will be some changes of the mandates. Aveiro, Braga  and Porto maybe will win a seat. Lisboa, Castelo Branco and Bragança can loose one seat.

In the general election many people in smaller districts don't vote for the B.E or the PCP-PEV. They vote tactical, because they don't want to waste their vote. They vote then for the PS.

However, when the result is like the European Election, then I see no way for a strong government. PSD/PPD and CDS/PP have no majority and a coalition between PS, B.E. and PCP-PEV is very funny. I don't think that works. A minority government of PSD/PPD or PS isn't what I wish for Portugal.

I once had Portugal described to me as the country with the most mis-named political parties in Europe....

Probably due to the PSD.

The president of Portugal, Cavaco Silva, calls parliamentary elections  for September 27 . In October 11 there will be the municipal elections. His own party (PSD) wanted that both elections are on the same day. All other they should be on different days.

http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=3&art_id=nw20090627171226635C324636

I'm forced to agree with the PSD here. I like high turnout in my local elections.

A new poll by Marktest has the Conservatives leading:

PSD: 35.8%
PS: 34.5%
BE: 13.1%
PCP: 9.4%
CDS: 4.4%
Others: 2.8%

Poll was done between June 16 and 20 amongst 800 adults.

http://diario.iol.pt/politica/tvi24-politica-psd-sondagem-ps-eleicoes/1072222-4072.html

Wow at BE and CDS. Small wonder the PDS is ahead in that case.

comparing with last election this is

PSD +7.0
CDS / PP -2.9

PS -10.5
BE +6.7 (compared to a record result, too)
PCP / CDU +1.8

other -2.1

...and I just notice that's comparing with percentage of total rather than valid ballots. Redoing...

PSD +6.2
CDS / PP -3.1

PS -11.9
BE +6.8
PCP / CDU +1.6

other +0.4

CDS always underpolls.

There were polls putting them at 2% for the European elections, and look how that turned out. In fact, Portas raised a huge fuss about it and complained to the president about it.

New polls (July) for Portugal by Marktest http://www.marktest.com/wap/a/p/s~1/id~e9.aspx

PS            35,5
PSD/PPD  32,2
BE            14,3  (WOW)
PCP-PEV    7,4
CDS/PP      4,4

Okay, Bono is right, the CDS is often underpolled, but 4,4 is very very bad. Only a miracle can bring them a better result like 2005.

The CNE (National Comission of Elections) announce yesterday the mandates for every district. http://www.cne.pt/dl.cfm?FileID=1305

3 districts gain one seat
Aveiro
Braga
Porto

3 districts lose one seat
Bragança
Castelo Branco
Lisboa

I think this helps the PSD a little bit, not more

Would the PS be willing to go into coalition with BE? What would that mean? Or is a grand Coalition more likely?

It isn't impossible, but I don't think it gives a coalition between PS and BE. More possible is a minority government of the PS, tolerated by the BE or somebody. A grand coalition is nearly impossible. Politically the differences are not more like the CDU/CSU ans the SPD in Germany. I think they are so big political opponents in Portugal that serious nobody think this comes.

In Portugal they have some problems to make coalitions. Except a PSD-CDS coalition no one would work. All parties make a hard  campaign against the PS and then one of them make a coalition with the PS. This isn't plausible, but in politics all things can happen. I see big problems to get a stable administration after the 27Th September.

Well, I certianly think a PS-BE coalition is in the works, as shown by a recent shenanigan where the Block leader went defending a minister from some PSD attacks. That said, there's no official word about it, which is natural given that they don't want to scare center voters with the idea that they might want to share power with Trotskists.

A grand coalition has been done before when the two parties hated each other more; but in this case, the only way it'll be done is without Socrates, since he has acted in such a way towards the opposition during his tenure that no one would want to govern with him. So, it'd have to be a PSD-led grand coalition. That said, it's not anyone's favorite resolution.

Bono, I don't know a PS-BE coalition is on the work, but it's the best of all alternatives when the result is like the last poll. The BE must be more pragmatic like in the last years and this is no bad thing, but the time for election records is then for a time over.

A grand coalition without Socrates is only possible, when the result of the PS extremely bad and the PSD-CDS have no majority. I don't see this. In the end the voters decide José Sócrates or Manuela Ferreira Leite will be  prime minister. This speaks more for the PS, because he looks more sympathetic . By the way, I was now over 2 weeks in Portugal and I don't see a election poster with Manuela Ferreira Leite. I think they now with her charisma you can only lose voters and not gain new voters.

I found the Portuguese Wahl-o-mat. I hope the translation is good. I must first it translate from Portuguese to German and then into English.
http://sic.sapo.pt/online/noticias/portugal2009/multimedia/bussola-eleitoral.htm
Click at Start and you can look what’s the best party for you in Portugal.

concorda totalmente =  totally agree
tende a concordar = tends to agree
neutro = neutral
tende a discordar = tend to disagree
discorda totalmente = totally disagree
sem opinião = No opinion

1.) The private sector should have a very limited role in the education

2) The financing of social security should be done exclusively with public money

3) For the sustainability of social security we must the increase in retirement age in the public service

4) The private sector should have a very limited role in the health system

5) For the modernization of public administration we need to reduce the number of employees

6) We should reduce taxes to increase the economic growth

7) The balance of public accounts can only be achieved by sacrificing important economic and social objectives

8 ) The nationalization of the banking should be seen as a last way out

9) The fight against inequality requires a greater contribution from individuals and businesses with higher incomes

10) In the Portuguese society the private sector is not sufficiently rewarded

11) Partnerships between private sector and the state are an efficient way to finance public investment

12) The current major public works, like the TGV, are a good option

13) We should deregulate markets whenever possible

14) For the growth of the economy is the relaxation of labour laws necessary

15) The government should directly intervene to regulate prices of essential goods

16) The decriminalization of abortion was positive

17) The marriage should remain exclusively a union between persons of different sexes

18) The decriminalization of soft drugs was a good measure

19) Should it be easier, wherever possible, to obtain a divorce?

20) The use of reproductive technologies, funded by the State should be forbidden to unmarried women

21) We must protect the environment, even at the expense of economic growth

22) Criminals should be punished more severely

23) Quotas for women in politics are essential to increase the quality of democracy in Portugal

24) At the current reduction in the share of immigrants is a good measure

25) There should be an extension of the areas where the European Union sets the policies

26) Portugal would be better off outside the EU than inside

27) European integration is a good thing

28) The ratification of the Lisbon Treaty as it stands, it is essential for the future of the European Union

In the next part you can rate the party leaders (Não conheço means I don’t know who this man is). Then you can the same do with the parties, These parts are not necessary to do.

Have fun ;)

My Result: (only major parties)

PS    79,5%
B.E.  75,0%
CDU (PCP-PEV)   69,6%
PSD  48,2%
CDS-PP  41,1 %

Are these approval ratings for the various parties? 

yeah

B.E. 75.9
CDU 68.8
PS 67.9
PSD 47.3
PP 40.2

PS 86
MEP 73
PSD 73
MMS 72.9
PDA 67
CDS-PP 65
MPT 59
BE 55
PCTP-MRPP 49
PNR 47
CDU 47
PND 46

Hashemite, deep inside you are a socialist :D

I am an ultra-liberal in Portugal. Northeast of me there is only the wall :)

PSD 73.1
CDS-PP 71.3
PS 69.4
MEP 67.6
MMS 66.3
PDA 65.7
MPT 62.0
PND 60.2
BE 50.9
CDU 50.9
PNR 50.0
PCTP-MRPP 48.1

BE 78,6%
PS 77,7%
CDU 69,6%
PCTP 65,2%
MMS 58,3%
MEP 57,1%
MPT 52,7%
PDA 46,4%
PSD 44,6%
CDS-PP 35,7%
PNR 31,3%
PND 28,6%

Agreed with BE on most things except European integration ;D

That test just said I am right of center.
I might just have a stroke.
It probably because I answered "neutral" to a series of economics question where I didn't know the situation in Portugal so preferred not to answer.

Anyway,closest party is PS,then MMS,then MEP.

I'll take the test in a minute, but I thought I'd report the huge scandal that broke recently.

One of our private TV networks, TVI, was recently bought by Spanish conglomerate PRISA, which is known for its closeness to the PSOE.

The Evening News on TVI had broke news related to a corruption scandal involving the licensing of a Freeport shopping mall when Sócrates was environment ministry, and it was to release new compromising documents again today, before having had its anchor fired, reportedly by an order coming directly from the PRISA CEO.

The other newspeople at the station resigned in solitary, and a huge scandal broke out regarding media pressures; the opposition had been pressing the topic of the climate of fear the PS has been fomenting, and this only adds fuel to the fire, especially coming in on the heels of accusations by a private company president connected to the PSD of pressures from the PS with threats of governmental retaliation.

CDS 63.9%
PSD 54.6%
PCP 45.4%
PS 38.9%
BE 36.1%


LOL at having the commies ahead of the PS. Probably because of my answers on the EU.

I did the EU Profiler test for Portugal again, and omg.

PS 77.8
MEP 70
PH 69.4
MMS 68.4
MPT 68.4
BE 63.9
CDS 60
PSD 59.8
PCP 59.5
PPM 51.7

;D ;D ;D

A new Poll for Portugal from Universidade Católica for RTP (Portuguese TV)
http://dn.sapo.pt/inicio/portugal/interior.aspx?content_id=1358694 (in Portuguese)

PS    37%
PSD  35%
B.E.  11%
PCP-PEV   8%
CDS-PP  6 %

No majority, maybe a the PS and B.E. have together a slight majority

2005 was the result:

PS    45,05%  120  Mandates  (this was the best result ever for the PS)
PPD/PSD    28,70%  72    (the worst result since over 20 years)
PCP-PEV   7,56%  14    (the second worst result)
CDS-PP  7,26%  12    (the third worst result)
B.E.   6,38%  8   (the best result of all times for B.E.)

CDU 78.3%
PS 71.7%
B.E. 70.7%
PSD 53.3%
CDS-PP 45.7%

When the poll is the result, I have calculated the approximate distribution of seats would be like. The result is not good.

PS            93  mandates
PPD/PSD   92
B.E.           19
PCP-PEV   15
CDS-PP       7

When this is the result of the election, then only a great coalition is possible. PS and PPD/PSD with the same mandates, there will be no stable government.

When the PS under 1,5 % more votes, then the PPD/PSD will be more mandates in parlament. This makes all more difficult :(

A new Poll for Portugal from Eurosondagem for SIC (Private TV) and Rádio Renascença
http://ultimahora.publico.clix.pt/noticia.aspx?id=1400416 (in Portuguese)

PS    33,6 %
PSD  32,5 %
B.E.    9,6 %
PCP-PEV    9,4 %
CDS-PP  8,0 %

A new Poll for Portugal from Universidade Católica for RTP (Public TV) and Diário de Notícias (Journal)
http://ultimahora.publico.clix.pt/noticia.aspx?id=1401161(in Portuguese)

PS    38 %
PSD  32 %
B.E.    12 %
PCP-PEV    7 %
CDS-PP  7 %

With this result a coalition between PS and B. E. is possible.

A new Poll for Portugal from Intercampus for TVI (Private TV) and Púbico (Journal) and Rádio Clube Português.
http://www.tvi24.iol.pt/politica/ps-sondagem-intercampus-tvi24-psd/1090099-4072.html (in Portuguese)

PS    32,9 %
PSD  29,7 %
B.E.    12 %
PCP-PEV    9,2 %
CDS-PP  7 %

Only 7,8 % of respondents don't know which party they want to vote. 71,8% have make their decision. 6,4 % don't know they go to the election. The rest don't want to vote.

One week to the election in Portugal. It's time for my prediction for every district


Açores   5 Mandates (n/c); PS 3 (n/c), PPD/PSD 2 (n/c), PCP-PEV0 (n/c), CDS-PP 0 (n/c), B. E. 0(n/c)

Aveiro     16 Mandates (+1);  PS 6 (-2), PPD/PSD 8 (+2), PCP-PEV 0 (n/c), CDS-PP 1 (n/c), B. E. 1 (+1) Here it's possible that the last seat goes from the PSD to the B.E., but i don't think so

Beja         3 Mandates (n/c); PS 2 (n/c), PPD/PSD 0 (n/c), PCP-PEV 1 (n/c), CDS-PP 0 (n/c), B. E. 0 (n/c),

Braga       19 Mandates (+1); PS 7 (-2), PPD/PSD 8 (+1), PCP-PEV 1 (n/c), CDS-PP 1 (n/c), B. E. 2 (+2) The last seat can go from the PCP to the PS, When the B.E. have a good result, then they have 2 seats here. Last time they need only a few votes to get 1 Mandate

Bragança       3 Mandates (-1); PS 1 (-1), PPD/PSD 2 (n/c), PCP-PEV 0 (n/c), CDS-PP 0 (n/c), B. E. 0 (n/c)

Castelo Branco    4 Mandates (-1);  PS 3 (-1), PPD/PSD 1 (n/c), PCP-PEV 0 (n/c), CDS-PP 0 (n/c), B. E. 0 (n/c); 2005 here was a José Sócrates hype. This is his district and i don't know it's the same this time. Maybe the last seat goes from the PS to the PSD

Coimbra   10 Mandates (n/c); PS 5 (-1), PPD/PSD 4 (n/c), PCP-PEV 0 (n/c), CDS-PP 0 (n/c), B. E. 1 (+1)

Évora     3 Mandates (n/c); PS 2 (n/c), PPD/PSD 0 (n/c), PCP-PEV 1 (n/c), CDS-PP 0 (n/c), B. E. 0 (n/c); The first seat is safe to the PS, but the 2 others are very close be teen the PS, PSD and the PCP. Also possible is 1-1-1 or 2-1-0

Faro     8 Mandates (n/c);  PS 4 (-2), PPD/PSD 3 (+1), PCP-PEV 0 (n/c), CDS-PP 0 (n/c), B. E. 1 (+1); when the PCP have a very good result here, then they get the last seat from the PSD or the PS, but I don't think so

Guarda     4 Mandates (n/c);  PS 2 (n/c), PPD/PSD 2 (n/c), PCP-PEV 0 (n/c), CDS-PP 0 (n/c), B. E. 0 (n/c)

Leiria     10 Mandates (n/c);  PS 3 (-1), PPD/PSD 5 (n/c), PCP-PEV 0 (n/c), CDS-PP 1 (n/c), B. E. 1 (+1)

Lisbon     47 Mandates (-1);  PS 19 (-4), PPD/PSD 13 (+1), PCP-PEV 4 (-1), CDS-PP 4 (n/c), B. E. 7 (+3); For the B.E. is the 7th seat not safe and the last seat from the PS and CDS are unsafe too.

Madeira     6 Mandates (n/c);  PS 2 (-1), PPD/PSD 4 (+1), PCP-PEV 0 (n/c), CDS-PP 0 (n/c), B. E. 0 (n/c)

Portalegre     2 Mandates (n/c);  PS 2 (n/c), PPD/PSD 0 (n/c), PCP-PEV 0 (n/c), CDS-PP 0 (n/c), B. E. 0 (n/c); the seconds seat is close between the PS and the PSD

Porto     39 Mandates (+1);  PS 17 (-3), PPD/PSD 13 (+1), PCP-PEV 2 (n/c), CDS-PP 2 (n/c), B. E. 5 (+3), All last seats are not safe, PCP and CDS have normally no problem to get 2 Mandates

Santarém     10 Mandates (n/c);  PS 5 (-1), PPD/PSD 3 (n/c), PCP-PEV 1 (n/c), CDS-PP 0 (n/c), B. E. 1 (+1), The last seat is very close between PS and PSD; the CDS  have a small chance for the last seat when their result in Santarém is better than average

Setúbal     17 Mandates (n/c);  PS 7 (-1), PPD/PSD 3 (n/c), PCP-PEV 3 (n/c), CDS-PP 1 (n/c), B. E. 3 (+1); The seat of the CDS isn't safe, Maybe the PSD and the PCP get tone seat from the CDS and B. E.

Viana do Castelo     6 Mandates (n/c);  PS 3 (n/c), PPD/PSD 3 (+1), PCP-PEV 0 (n/c), CDS-PP 0 (-1), B. E. 0 (n/c) the last seat is close between the PS and the CDS

Vila Real     5 Mandates (n/c); PS 2 (-1), PPD/PSD 3 (+1), PCP-PEV 0 (n/c), CDS-PP 0 (n/c), B. E. 0 (n/c)

Viseu     9 Mandates (n/c); PS 3 (-1), PPD/PSD 5 (+1), PCP-PEV 0 (n/c), CDS-PP 0 (-1), B. E. 1 (+1); the last seat is very close between the B. E., the PS and the CDS. I think the B. E. have the better chance

PORTUGAL TOTAL

PS     98 (-22)
PSD   82 (+10)
PCP   13 (-1)
CDS   10 (-2)
B. E.   23 (+15)

The B. E. have many close seats and maybe the result of them is 20.

The result for the Portuguese Abroad will be the same like every time

Europe - PS 1, PSD 1; the last time the PS was close to get both seats, but this don't happen this time

Rest of the World - PSD 2; When the PS have a very good result here they can get the second seat

I one week we can see my prediction is good or not ;)

No changes in the Polls. The PS have still a 3-7% lead. The B. E. will have their best result and maybe over 10%. In a Marktest poll they have 16%, but this can be only a joke :D

Here on this site is a overview of all polls for the election next sunday

http://www.marktest.com/wap/a/p/id~f8.aspx

No, the PPM have a own list and the MPT (center-right-green) is together with the Partido Humanista. I think they have no chance to come in the parlament

A new poll from Marktest for Diario Economico and TSF.PT
http://www.clipping.mediamonitor.pt/pdfTemp/etn_6790649_999999_0.pdf

PS     40,0
PSD   31,6
PCP     7,2
CDS   8,2
B. E.   9,0

The Projection  of Marktest for the Parlament is:

PS     105 (-16)
PSD   81 (+6)
PCP   13 (-1)
CDS   14 (+2)
B. E.   17 (+9)

The difference between PS and PSD is with 8,4% the highest since many month.

PS moves further ahead of the PSD. New polls by CESOP, Intercampus and Aximage:

PS: 38-39%
PSD: 29-30%
BE: 9-11%
CDS-PP: 8-9%
CDU: 7-8%

The Aximage poll, which is the newest, shows a 10%-PS-advantage.

Looks like PS is losing about 6% compared with 2005, while the PSD is unchanged, the Left Bloc gaining about 4%, the Communists gaining 1% and the CDS-PP about 1-2%.

Tomorrow are the elections and the latest polls say that the  Socialist are the strongest party:

PS   38-40%
PSD 29-32%
B.E.  9-11%
PCP  7-8,5%
CDS  7-8,5%

It's lookin that after the election it gives a minority government of the PS. A coalition between PS and the Left Bloc B.E. is possible too, but i don't think it gives one.

For results and turnout numbers check here:

http://www.legislativas2009.mj.pt

Yay, Hashemite's Official Endorsement™: Socialist Party

Yay, Lewis Trondheim's Official Endorsement™: Bloque Esquerda

Wait, what?

What time to expect results here?

in 34 minutes rtp will give a projection

Projection of Universidade Catolica for RTP

PS   40-36
PSD   29-25
B.E.   12-9
PCP   10-7
CDS   11,5-8,5

Mandates:

PS   106-102
PSD   73-69
B.E.   23-20
PCP   16-14
CDS   21-18

In Portugal we trust !

:)

Good to see the left not sucking in at least 1 country.

Victory!

Hash, you are a winner ;D

That's a theoretical PS-BE majority, is it?

Yes, but I'm not sure that we see. Maybe we get a minority government of the PS

A minority government able to rely largely on the BE is fine with me. But when Commie or Bourgeois support is needed, the PS tends to prefer Bourgeois support. Hence why a theoretical PS-BE majority is important.

http://tv1.rtp.pt/noticias/eleicoes/legislativas2009/index.php?ano=2009&distrito=990000&concelho=&freguesia=

This is another site you can see the results

The CDS did better than expected, which is some consolation.

Fools, I told you CDS always underpolls. There is no PS-BE majority, but there is a PS-CDS one. It wouldn't be the first time it happened.

Why is Évora so left-wing? The Commies took second place (PS first, PSD third, BE a close fourth, hardline Commies 2%), but it sounds like a normal city.

That might not be a bad a thing.  At least you would get a fairly centrist government.  My understanding is the CDS is centre-right like the Social Democratic Party and the difference is primarily what type of conservatism.  Otherwise the PDS is more fiscally conservative while the CDS is more socially conservative.  Off course a left wing government here would be possible if the PS-BE-PCP formed a three party coalition, but I cannot see this happening.

It's the Alentejo. Commie country.

That's not a "why" explanation.

The Region  Alentejo is very left. It was the county of the big landowners and agricultural workers and the communists were very good organized there before the end of the dictatorship 1974. The other reason is that the south of Portugal is the south is much less religious than the north

Final result (Portugal abroad is still outstanding, but the mainland is counted):

PS: 2.068.665 votos (37.7%)
PSD: 1.646.097 votos (30.0%)
CDS-PP: 592.064 votos (10.8%)
BE: 557.109 votos (10.2%)
CDU: 446.174 votos (8.1%)
Others: 175.402 votos (3.2%)

Eligible voters: 9.337.314
Total votes: 5.658.778
Valid votes: 5.485.511
Turnout: 60.6%

This is not correct ;) in Portugal the blank ballots be counted

This is the final result:

PS   36,56%   2.068.665  96 Mandates
PPD/PSD   29,09%   1.646.097   78
CDS-PP   10,46%   592.064   21
B.E.   9,85%   557.109   16
PCP-PEV   7,88%   446.174   15

It's a victory for the PS, but not really a good one. The PSD have a disastrous result again. The CDS have a very good result. The B.E., they can be very satisfied. It's worse like in the polls, but they double their mandates. The PCP have a bad result, they live only by the strength their strongholds in the south.

What brings the future?. A coalition between PS and B.E. has no majority. A coalition between PS and CDS is possible and the B.E. and the PCP would like it ;). Maybe we see a grand coalition, who knows. The next time it will be not boring in Portugal

The mandates by district:

Açores     PS 3 (n/c), PSD/PPD 2 (n/c)
Aveiro       PS 6 (-2), PSD/PPD 7 (+1), CDS/PP 2 (+1), B.E. 1 (+1),
Beja         PS 2 (n/c); PCP-PEV 1 (n/c)

Braga       PS 9 (n/c), PSD/PPD 6 (-1), CDS/PP 2 (+1), B.E. 1 (+1), PCP-PEV 1 (n/c)
Bragança      PS 1 (-1), PSD/PPD 2 (n/c)
Castelo Branco       PS 2 (-2), PSD/PPD  (+1)

Coimbra    PS 4 (-2), PSD/PPD 4 (n/c)), CDS/PP 1 (+1), B.E. 1 (+1)
Évora       PS 1 (-1), PSD/PPD 1 (+1), PCP-PEV 1 (n/c)
Faro       PS 3 (-3), PSD/PPD 6 (+1), CDS/PP 1 (+1), B.E. 1 (+1),

Guarda       PS 2 (n/c), PSD/PPD 6 (n/c)
Leiria       PS 4 (n/c), PSD/PPD 4 (-1), CDS/PP 1 (n/c), B.E. 1 (+1)
Lisboa       PS 19 (-4), PSD/PPD 13 (+1), CDS/PP 5 (+1), B.E. 5 (+1), PCP-PEV 5 (n/c)

Madeira       PS 1 (-2), PSD/PPD 4 (+1), CDS/PP 1 (+1)
Portalegre       PS 1 (-1), PSD/PPD 1 (+1)
Porto       PS 18 (-2), PSD/PPD 12 (n/c), CDS/PP 4 (+2), B.E. 3 (+1), PCP-PEV 2 (n/c)

Santarém       PS 4 (-2), PSD/PPD 3 (n/c), CDS/PP 1 (+1), B.E. 1 (+1), PCP-PEV 1 (n/c)
Setúbal       PS 7 (-1), PSD/PPD 3 (n/c), CDS/PP 1 (n/c), B.E. 2 (n/c), PCP-PEV 4 (+1)
Viana do Castelo     PS 3 (n/c), PSD/PPD 2 (n/c), CDS/PP 1 (n/c)

Vila Real      PS 2 (-1), PSD/PPD 3 (+1)
Viseu       PS 4 (n/c), PSD/PPD 4 (n/c), CDS/PP 1 (n/c)

PORTUGAL      PS 96 (-24), PSD/PPD 78 (+6), CDS/PP 21 (+9), B.E. 16 (+8), PCP-PEV 15 (+1)

Surprises for me are the CDS-mandate in Faro. I think this is the first time they win a seat in the Algarve. The CDS seat in Madeira i don't expect, too. That in Setúbal the B.E. don't win the 3rd seat is a little disappointment for me.

In Porto the difference between CDS and B.E. was only 902 votes. So goes the last seat to the CDS.

It is. Since you insist, it's anti-clerical country. The land of large landowners, agricultural workers and a much more collectivist spirit than the north. It's like Allier, Cher or Indre in France.

The north is much more individualist, Catholic-clerical and the Church is important there. Like Galicia. Except for Porto, which is an industrial centre and an old base of republicanism.

Andalusia before irrigation, tourism and retirees.

Plus, Évora in particular is a university town.

Next sunday(11Th October) are local elections in Portugal. On this site you can see some opinion polls.
http://www.marktest.com/wap/a/p/id~f9.aspx

On Sunday were the Local Elections in Portugal. It gives no clear winner.  When i counted right the coalition of PSD and CDS wins 9 cities more than 2005, but they have lost to vote.

2005 the result was:

PS   35,84%   (852 mandates)
PSD+CDS   43,47% (953 mandates)
PCP   10,16% (203 mandates)
B.E.   2,95% (7 mandates)
Others   47 mandates

2009:

PS   37,66% (921 mandates)
PSD+CDS   41,82% (903 mandates)
PCP   9,75% (174 mandates)
B.E.  3,02% (9 mandates)
Others   67 mandates

In nearly every big city the PSD and the CDS have a common list. Sometimes with the PPM (monarchists) and MPT (center-right Greens). The PCP have candidates in almost every city and the B. E. (left Bloc) in the bigger cities and many small cities in the south. The B.E. is very weak in the local elections.

Every party says now they are the winner. The PSD_CDS wins some important cities, like Coimbra ans Faro. The PS wins votes and for example the City of Leiria.

I don't think there is a winner, because all parties are on the same level.

http://www.autarquicas2009.mj.pt/#none

After the elections in the September want José Sócrates form a minority government.
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,4794540,00.html

We will see what the future brings. Maybe he can form a stable government, but i doubt it. I would bet all my money that it gives new elections in the next 2 years.