Talk Elections

This was kinda discussed a bit in another topic, but let's have one specifically for this race.

Can Republicans even make this seat competitive? The "front-runner" Republicans seems to be Charles Djou, who has the endorsment of 7 Republican state legislators(which is 100% of them) and Lingle as well. Obama received 70%+ in this district and it's only elected on Republican for 2 years since it's existed.

Rumor has it that Abercrombie's gonna run for governor so it'll probably be open. But I think Republicans are being too optimistic...

If it's an open seat and the Dems run a Haole, the GOP could pick it up

Like Ed Case, or out-of-state white guy?

No. The Hawaii Democratic establishment is powerful and strong. Just look at the state legislature if you want to see the limited number of Republicans the party can choose from. Even if Charles Djou tries his best, there are many candidates the Democrats can propose and even if they are Haole, they will be elected.

This district is pretty much the mirror image of ID-01.  It will only elect a Republican if Democrats run a crazy, obnoxious, and unlikeable candidate. 

Ed Case actually lives in HI-01, although the laws in Hawaii don't require a representative to live in the district they represent. He's made noises about running for something in 2010 (he's up for anything -- Governor, Senator, HI-01 or 02) so I wouldn't be surprised if he ran. There's even precedent for this, even with Hawaii's short electoral history, as Patsy Mink represented the 1st from 65-77 and the 2nd from 91-02.

Anyway, no, unless 2010 is a horrible year for Dems, Djou will probably top out around 40%. Lingle has been terrible at getting other Republicans elected in the state, so I don't think her support would have any effect.

Utterly safe D.

It's hard to respond to this without loud guffaws and the phrase "foolish mortals."

Anyone notice Lunar seems to have a bit of an obsession with affirmative action in these sort of races?

I'm reminded of him saying Paterson couldn't win the primary in 2010 unless he appointed a minority to Hillary's seat (Paterson may lose anyway, but his appointment of a white woman to the seat is pretty low on the list of why.) or mocking the idea that any white male could be appointed Sec of Commerce after Richardson withdrew (Judd Gregg may not take it, but it was certainly possible).

Abercrombie himself is a white (hence "Haole"), so no reason another can't win.

Ah, we'll see.  I was talking about an open seat naturally.

Regarding Paterson - I never said that.  I think I was stressing that appointing members of certain groups (Upstate and Women among them) was important for Paterson to gain the factional support to win a tough primary.   I said specifically that he needed appoint a women, an Upstater, or a Hispanic.  Obviously the only two real Hispanics that would be interested in the seat - Nydia and Carrion - found they had other things to do.

And I admit the Gregg thing took me by surprise.  I think a Republican effectively counts as a minority (you do insert them as tokens) though.  Now it looks to be Locke getting the post.

But, of course, Locke as a minority is totally unimportant. The Asian community has little voting cohesion or organization and is concentrated in states which make it electorally irrelevant. Plus, Obama already had two Asian cabinet members.

True.  Locke isn't a strategic attempt to win votes but part of a grander scheme of having a visibly diverse candidate.

What's weirdest about your accusations BRTD is why you accuse me of saying Paterson would never choose someone like Gillibrand when I had her as my official prediction since Mid-December.

Remember that I never said a Haole couldn't win HI-01, clearly that'd be a retarded thing to say.  I just think that maybe it'd be compoetitive if the Dems went that way (I don't expect them to) if the mid-term is good GOP year.  HI-01 is <19% White and >54% Asian.

I don't think he's accusing you of anything.

Yeah I don't see the accusation. Just think you way overestimate this stuff. And even if I scoffed at Gillibrand, it wasn't due to being white. I also scoffed at the idea that a minority MUST be appointed in order to win the primary. Honestly I doubt even most minorities care about stuff like that, just Al Sharpton types.

And what great GOP candidate can beat a white Democrat in HI-01? The GOP bench throughout all of Hawaii is simply pathetic to put it mildly.

A military man could win. Hawaii has great loyalty to the military.

Democrats have tried that strategy a million times and it almost never works to overcome partisan trends. When military men won, it wasn't because their military status was a major factor. The worst case of over-hyping I can recall was in the race to replace Joe Scarborough where people thought running a military D vs. a civilian R would make a difference in FL-1.

FL-1 is more Republican than HI-1 is Democratic.

FL-1 is more Republican than HI-1 is Democratic.

Here's for putting Ed Case back in Congress, if a seat over.

Sure, but HI-1 is pretty Democratic, and a military strategy is designed to poach Republican voters, not Democratic voters. Even granted Hawaii's unique electorate. GA-8 has a military demographic and is significantly less Democratic than HI-1, but Rick Goddard turned into the Kay Barnes of the Republicans.

I'm not drawing an exact parallel between those districts by I am skeptical it will work.

Besides, the GOP candidate is already all but declared with an easy route through the primary.

Maybe a nonwhite military man during a Republican administration.

Because you know, the REPUBLICANS ARE ALWAYS AT WAR


HEY-OHHHHHHHHHHHH



But seriously, Neil, the current Rep of HI-01 just formally declared he'll run for gov., so, this seat is now open baby!  [obscure reference if you include the Neil]


Now, here are the four Democratic potentials, via Scorecard:  former state House Majority Leader Kirk Caldwell, Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hanneman, state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa and former state Rep. Brian Schatz.

Safe D. I hope a white is nominated and wins in landslide just so I can laugh at Lunar. Seriously dude, you need to get over the affirmative action thing.

Uh, dude, I think you need to chill the fuck out.  I only outlined a scenario where it could potentially be competitive.  I expect this race to go Democratic no matter who they nominate.

Name a half-decent candidate the HI GOP has (besides Lingle as she isn't going to run.)

BTW FL-01 is not more Republican than HI-01 is Democratic. I doubt McCain got over 70% in FL-01.

All I said was one of the factors that COULD make the race competitive.  If I've said anything besides that, I was being stupid (and note, nothing has changed in the race since then so I'm not using hindsight).

Obviously if the Democrats were to nominate the Mayor of Honolulu, it wouldn't matter if he were white or an one-armed albino midget, he's be very, very likely to win.

If I were to say the race against Dodd "maybe" could be competitive, and it turns out Dodd cruises to an easy victory, you do have enough cells in your body to figure out why I'm not proven wrong, right?  If I'm making a prediction I'll avoid the qualifiers "maybe" "potentially" "could" and "possibly" "perhaps" "if" and such things, depending on context.  It's really not difficult at all to figure out what my predictions are and what my speculation about variables are.

Sorry for going to town on you (I actually edited this post down a bit to remove more cuss words) but I've had a long night and your holier-than-thou attitude simultaneously while horribly twisting my words in order to make me look retarded has me internet-aggravated. 

I get a lot of early information about races, and when things are still vague I like to speculate on what could happen, but in no way are those predictions.

Old PVI was R+19 vs. D+7. Now, Bush-Cheney overperformed in Hawaii in '04; however, the '08 results were waaaaay more skewed by Obama's coming from Hawaii.

(But then again, McCain was military.)

Republicans can only win a seat like this if they're out of power.  Having a GOP held House or a GOP President is a massive albatross on the neck of a GOP candidate in a district like this.

Djou will need to go above and beyond the call of duty in terms of localizing this race.  The more "Obama" gets mentioned the worse he'll do.

I'm not sure how much the residents are paying attention to the national scene, but I wonder how much Cantor's uniform "no" votes affect perceptions of moderate GOP candidate's pledges to actually be moderate.  I mean, he organized almost a complete GOP blackout of a cable television bill that passed the Senate unanimously (not that anyone noticed).

If Djou wins, it'll only be if the GOP wins a landslide and takes the House anyway, so it won't really matter.

I will make an outlandish prediction and say it'll be a primary battle between Ed Case and Colleen Hanabusa.

See though, that's exactly the type of nonsense J. J. was so (rightfully) criticized over. It's inanity with an excuse. Obama might lose white Democrats. Hillary might have a superdelegate stampede to nullify the primaries. There might be a massive Bradley Effect. Sound familiar? Dodd losing or the Democrats losing this seat aren't too far off from the ridiculousness of the aforementioned.

I don't think when I speculate I'm necessarily talking about absurd probabilities though.  If a set of events were to happen (the Democrats nominate a non-establishment white guy, the Democrats have a bad year, and Djou runs a really good campaign), then the seat could be competitive.  Otherwise it won't be.  Now that the actual likely Democratic candidates have emerged, as I listed above (gasp, I'm following this race), it's becoming far less likely of a GOP pickup.  It'll still be an interesting race to watch, even if it's a blowout.

J.J. made solid predictions of what would happen. I'm simply speculating about possible conditions where a race could  be competitive, when it most likely won't be.  I mean, what else is there do do in a district so obviously Democratic besides speculate about a perfect storm of conditions where the race could be competitive?

I have a little personal experience with Hawaii, my gf's Mom repeatedly refers to me as her "Haole boyfriend," hence my usage of the term, for the record.  Not that it matters.

Okay first of all, Lunar and Fake Yellow Light needs to get a room :) haha.

Old PVI was R+19 vs. D+7. Now, Bush-Cheney overperformed in Hawaii in '04; however, the '08 results were waaaaay more skewed by Obama's coming from Hawaii.

(But then again, McCain was military.)
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Good point. How well Bush and Cheney did in this blue state bastion has baffled me. I know that 2004 was a big Republican year because of all the Bible thumpers and religious right-wing nut jobs and hicks that turned out to support Bush because they injected gay marriage into the election but I thought Hawaii was a fairly progressive state that wouldn't vote for these types. I expected Kerry to get at least into the 60-percents in Hawaii but alas he didn't. Interesting.

As it pertains to HI-01, I think hell will freeze over before a Republican holds this seat. Hawaii is one of the bluest states in the nation with an extremely slim bench there. As someone previously mentioned, there are only six (out of 51 total) Republicans in the Hawaii House of Representatives and only two Republicans in the Hawaii State Senate (out of 25 total). Heck, the only Republican from Hawaii I know of is Gov. Linda Lingle and I'm sure she will challenge Sen. Daniel Inouye (D) and will probably be crushed which will pretty much turn Hawaii into another New England where Republicans are completely shut off. Maybe the Republicans can get Secretary of State James Aiona (R) to run for the HI-01 seat, but I still see it going to the Democrats regardless of who the candidate is.

Good point. How well Bush and Cheney did in this blue state bastion has baffled me. I know that 2004 was a big Republican year because of all the Bible thumpers and religious right-wing nut jobs and hicks that turned out to support Bush because they injected gay marriage into the election but I thought Hawaii was a fairly progressive state that wouldn't vote for these types. I expected Kerry to get at least into the 60-percents in Hawaii but alas he didn't. Interesting.

As it pertains to HI-01, I think hell will freeze over before a Republican holds this seat. Hawaii is one of the bluest states in the nation with an extremely slim bench there. As someone previously mentioned, there are only six (out of 51 total) Republicans in the Hawaii House of Representatives and only two Republicans in the Hawaii State Senate (out of 25 total). Heck, the only Republican from Hawaii I know of is Gov. Linda Lingle and I'm sure she will challenge Sen. Daniel Inouye (D) and will probably be crushed which will pretty much turn Hawaii into another New England where Republicans are completely shut off. Maybe the Republicans can get Secretary of State James Aiona (R) to run for the HI-01 seat, but I still see it going to the Democrats regardless of who the candidate is.
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Hawaii tends to be pro-incumbent.

That all depends on the public's opinion of Obama next year.

this is hawaii not some place where obama has a real chance of becoming unpopular.

Uh, this is Hawaii. They only vote for Republicans when it's unpatriotic not to.

Exactly, this isn't frickin Missouri

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/former-rep.-case-to-run-for-hawaii-seat-2009-03-28.html

Shocked?

Not at all, but it still makes me want to barf.

Le sigh.  He does bounce around a lot, doesn't he?  Does he live in HI-01 now?

He lived in HI-01 when he ran for HI-02, so why not have it the other way around?

Did he promise to move to HI-02 as politicians (McClintock, Tedisco, etc) often do?

Ed Case is one.

Republican Pat Saiki represented HI-01 from 1987-1991.  (I'm not sure how different that district was back then from the current HI-01, although the Almanac of American Politics 2008 states, "The Democratic Legislature made minor and politically insignificant changes to the district lines in 2002.")  Republican Orson Swindle, a Marine Corps Pilot and Vietnam POW, held Abercrombie to a 54%-43% win in 1994 and only a 50%-46% win in 1996 when Bill Clinton led Bob Dole 57% to 34% in the district.  Abercrombie has gotten 62% of the vote or greater in every general election (at least) since then, however.  I agree that it is a strongly Democratic district, but it's not as if Republicans have never come close here (a 4% margin less than 13 years ago).

Which ties in well with what I was saying. :)
Interesting. Something must have been up with that '96 race.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/convention96/regions/west/rohter_essay.html

includes a pre-campaign rundown on that race... that doesn't make you think it could end up this close.

Swindle went on to be GWBush's FTC Commissioner.

"Swindle" is a fairly unfortunate last name for a politician.