Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Presidential Election Process => Topic started by: RIP Robert H Bork on March 23, 2009, 09:28:08 PM



Title: If all states were to use the ME/NE system, then Obama would have won, 301-237
Post by: RIP Robert H Bork on March 23, 2009, 09:28:08 PM
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5&docID=news-000003078061&mp=Most_Viewed (http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5&docID=news-000003078061&mp=Most_Viewed)

Obtained from the March 23 2009 report of Electoral-vote.com: http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2009/Senate/Maps/Mar23-s.html (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2009/Senate/Maps/Mar23-s.html)

It is frequently asked, what would be the outcome of the election if all states were to allocate electoral votes like Maine and Nebraska instead of using the much more common winner takes all system. The results: Obama would still win, but it would be a much closer 301-237 instead of 365-173.

What do you think?



Title: Re: If all states were to use the ME/NE system, then Obama would have won, 301-237
Post by: Smid on March 23, 2009, 10:07:57 PM
I think Bush would have won by a larger margin in 2004, too.


Title: Re: If all states were to use the ME/NE system, then Obama would have won, 301-237
Post by: Purple State on March 23, 2009, 11:30:27 PM
It helps to have a block-solid South.


Title: Re: If all states were to use the ME/NE system, then Obama would have won, 301-237
Post by: defe07 on March 24, 2009, 07:01:59 PM
I'd prefer the ME/NE system but I think the idea of having Presidential Elector districts would be cool. For example, Delaware or Tennessee would allocate their EVs by counties. Thus, maybe an independent like Perot could stand a better chance.


Title: Re: If all states were to use the ME/NE system, then Obama would have won, 301-237
Post by: Hash on March 25, 2009, 03:30:19 PM
The problem with this ME/NE system is gerrymandering.


Title: Re: If all states were to use the ME/NE system, then Obama would have won, 301-237
Post by: Smid on March 25, 2009, 06:24:40 PM
The problem with this ME/NE system is gerrymandering.

I agree. I think gerrymandering is a problem that needs to be addressed first, or simultaneously to reforming to the ME/NE method. If a state reformed to the ME/NE method first, it would create even less incentive to reform its redistricting procedure to remove the gerrymander.


Title: Re: If all states were to use the ME/NE system, then Obama would have won, 301-2
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on March 25, 2009, 06:54:35 PM
Its amazing how many districts that McCain led Republican Congressional candidates.

BUT MCCAIN IS TEH RINO AND MICHELLE BACHMAN IS TEH ANSWER FOR GOP!!OMG


Title: Re: If all states were to use the ME/NE system, then Obama would have won, 301-237
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on March 25, 2009, 09:06:10 PM
Its amazing how many districts that McCain led Republican Congressional candidates.

BUT MCCAIN IS TEH RINO AND MICHELLE BACHMAN IS TEH ANSWER FOR GOP!!OMG

Yeah. He definitely did in a lot of areas. He was the strongest candidate we could field, after all.


Title: Re: If all states were to use the ME/NE system, then Obama would have won, 301-237
Post by: Bo on February 03, 2010, 07:54:42 PM
And Bush would have won by larger margins in both 2000 and 2004.


Title: Re: If all states were to use the ME/NE system, then Obama would have won, 301-237
Post by: segwaystyle2012 on February 03, 2010, 07:56:12 PM
Its amazing how many districts that McCain led Republican Congressional candidates.

BUT MCCAIN IS TEH RINO AND MICHELLE BACHMAN IS TEH ANSWER FOR GOP!!OMG

Yeah. He definitely did in a lot of areas. He was the strongest candidate we could field, after all.

Not at all.


Title: Re: If all states were to use the ME/NE system, then Obama would have won, 301-237
Post by: RIP Robert H Bork on February 03, 2010, 10:32:42 PM
Its amazing how many districts that McCain led Republican Congressional candidates.

BUT MCCAIN IS TEH RINO AND MICHELLE BACHMAN IS TEH ANSWER FOR GOP!!OMG

Yeah. He definitely did in a lot of areas. He was the strongest candidate we could field, after all.

Not at all.

Who do you think was the strongest Republican candidate in 2008, then?


Title: Re: If all states were to use the ME/NE system, then Obama would have won, 301-237
Post by: Psychic Octopus on February 03, 2010, 11:26:50 PM
No, the strongest candidate certainly was McCain. Giuliani was hated by the base (Although McCain was disliked, he wasn't as liberal as Giuliani and was acceptable), Romney had the businessman shtick, during the worst economic catastrophe since the 1930s he would have been destroyed. Huckabee was likeable, but the polls showed him losing by double digits, only really appealed to the evangelicals, and is disliked by much of the mainstream conservatives.

Really, McCain, a war hero with tremendous experience, was the only one of the candidates who ran could win.


Title: Re: If all states were to use the ME/NE system, then Obama would have won, 301-237
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on February 03, 2010, 11:31:18 PM
The problem with this ME/NE system is gerrymandering.

Exactly. This would only make the already crappy electoral college worse.


Title: Re: If all states were to use the ME/NE system, then Obama would have won, 301-237
Post by: Jensen on February 03, 2010, 11:33:13 PM
No, the strongest candidate certainly was McCain. Giuliani was hated by the base (Although McCain was disliked, he wasn't as liberal as Giuliani and was acceptable), Romney had the businessman shtick, during the worst economic catastrophe since the 1930s he would have been destroyed. Huckabee was likeable, but the polls showed him losing by double digits, only really appealed to the evangelicals, and is disliked by much of the mainstream conservatives.

Really, McCain, a war hero with tremendous experience, was the only one of the candidates who ran could win.

McCain couldn't even run a campaign, let alone the country. In fact, if my state wasn't a guaranteed lock for Obama, I have no idea where my vote would have gone.


Title: Re: If all states were to use the ME/NE system, then Obama would have won, 301-237
Post by: muon2 on February 04, 2010, 10:31:27 PM
The problem with this ME/NE system is gerrymandering.

I agree, but this could be remedied. Congress mandated single-member districts in 1967. The original bill introduced then would have provided for non-gerrymandered redistricting as well. If Congress could pass that law today, the ME/NE system would be more attractive.


Title: Re: If all states were to use the ME/NE system, then Obama would have won, 301-237
Post by: Vepres on February 07, 2010, 02:30:59 PM
Interestingly, Obama would win about 55.9% of the electoral votes, far closer to the actual results.


Title: Re: If all states were to use the ME/NE system, then Obama would have won, 301-237
Post by: Franzl on February 07, 2010, 02:35:17 PM
Interestingly, Obama would win about 55.9% of the electoral votes, far closer to the actual results.

I support a direct national popular vote....but the district method is too vulnerable to gerrymandering.


Title: Re: If all states were to use the ME/NE system, then Obama would have won, 301-237
Post by: Vepres on February 07, 2010, 02:43:39 PM
Interestingly, Obama would win about 55.9% of the electoral votes, far closer to the actual results.

I support a direct national popular vote....but the district method is too vulnerable to gerrymandering.

Obviously this is only a viable system if every state has a non-partisan commissions. I was just making an observation, that's all.


Title: Re: If all states were to use the ME/NE system, then Obama would have won, 301-237
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 27, 2010, 04:21:22 AM
Considering the number of States where districts are gerrymandered in favor of Republicans, it's not surprising at all.


Title: Re: If all states were to use the ME/NE system, then Obama would have won, 301-237
Post by: timmer123 on February 27, 2010, 10:48:56 PM
Considering the number of States where districts are gerrymandered in favor of Republicans, it's not surprising at all.

That really has little to do with it.

The fact is that Democrats are highly concentrated in few congressional districts around major cities, while most other districts are marginally or strongly Republican.


Title: Re: If all states were to use the ME/NE system, then Obama would have won, 301-237
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 28, 2010, 08:17:53 AM
Considering the number of States where districts are gerrymandered in favor of Republicans, it's not surprising at all.

That really has little to do with it.

The fact is that Democrats are highly concentrated in few congressional districts around major cities, while most other districts are marginally or strongly Republican.

It means nothing. If congressional districts were drawn fairly, so that the most possible of them are close to the Statewide margin, there would be no problem with democratic underrepresentation. But indeed if the democratic vote is concentred in a few stronghold urban districts, such thing happens. It's all about how you draw districts.


Title: Re: If all states were to use the ME/NE system, then Obama would have won, 301-237
Post by: Vepres on February 28, 2010, 01:24:03 PM
Considering the number of States where districts are gerrymandered in favor of Republicans, it's not surprising at all.

That really has little to do with it.

The fact is that Democrats are highly concentrated in few congressional districts around major cities, while most other districts are marginally or strongly Republican.

It means nothing. If congressional districts were drawn fairly, so that the most possible of them are close to the Statewide margin, there would be no problem with democratic underrepresentation. But indeed if the democratic vote is concentred in a few stronghold urban districts, such thing happens. It's all about how you draw districts.

Having districts with an unusual proportion of Democrats would occur even if the lines were drawn fairly. For example, CO-1 makes perfect sense, no matter what else you do in the state, but clearly has a vast number of Democrats.


Title: Re: If all states were to use the ME/NE system, then Obama would have won, 301-237
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 01, 2010, 04:46:14 AM
Considering the number of States where districts are gerrymandered in favor of Republicans, it's not surprising at all.

That really has little to do with it.

The fact is that Democrats are highly concentrated in few congressional districts around major cities, while most other districts are marginally or strongly Republican.

It means nothing. If congressional districts were drawn fairly, so that the most possible of them are close to the Statewide margin, there would be no problem with democratic underrepresentation. But indeed if the democratic vote is concentred in a few stronghold urban districts, such thing happens. It's all about how you draw districts.

Having districts with an unusual proportion of Democrats would occur even if the lines were drawn fairly. For example, CO-1 makes perfect sense, no matter what else you do in the state, but clearly has a vast number of Democrats.

Depends how you define "fairly drawn districts". The aesthetic aspect of a district isn't a criterion of fairness for me. The only valuable criterion is its competitivity in a situation of overall tie.

For example, in a situation of 50-50 statewide, if a district goes to democrats 60-40, no matter how it looks, then it is gerrymandered. And such gerrymander favors republicans.


Title: Re: If all states were to use the ME/NE system, then Obama would have won, 301-237
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 01, 2010, 04:00:11 PM
Considering the number of States where districts are gerrymandered in favor of Republicans, it's not surprising at all.

That really has little to do with it.

The fact is that Democrats are highly concentrated in few congressional districts around major cities, while most other districts are marginally or strongly Republican.

It means nothing. If congressional districts were drawn fairly, so that the most possible of them are close to the Statewide margin, there would be no problem with democratic underrepresentation. But indeed if the democratic vote is concentred in a few stronghold urban districts, such thing happens. It's all about how you draw districts.

Having districts with an unusual proportion of Democrats would occur even if the lines were drawn fairly. For example, CO-1 makes perfect sense, no matter what else you do in the state, but clearly has a vast number of Democrats.

Depends how you define "fairly drawn districts". The aesthetic aspect of a district isn't a criterion of fairness for me. The only valuable criterion is its competitivity in a situation of overall tie.

For example, in a situation of 50-50 statewide, if a district goes to democrats 60-40, no matter how it looks, then it is gerrymandered. And such gerrymander favors republicans.

Incorrect. If every district was 50-50, and the election result was 55-45, then every seat would go to the winning party.


Title: Re: If all states were to use the ME/NE system, then Obama would have won, 301-237
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 01, 2010, 04:34:15 PM
Considering the number of States where districts are gerrymandered in favor of Republicans, it's not surprising at all.

That really has little to do with it.

The fact is that Democrats are highly concentrated in few congressional districts around major cities, while most other districts are marginally or strongly Republican.

It means nothing. If congressional districts were drawn fairly, so that the most possible of them are close to the Statewide margin, there would be no problem with democratic underrepresentation. But indeed if the democratic vote is concentred in a few stronghold urban districts, such thing happens. It's all about how you draw districts.

Having districts with an unusual proportion of Democrats would occur even if the lines were drawn fairly. For example, CO-1 makes perfect sense, no matter what else you do in the state, but clearly has a vast number of Democrats.

Depends how you define "fairly drawn districts". The aesthetic aspect of a district isn't a criterion of fairness for me. The only valuable criterion is its competitivity in a situation of overall tie.

For example, in a situation of 50-50 statewide, if a district goes to democrats 60-40, no matter how it looks, then it is gerrymandered. And such gerrymander favors republicans.

Incorrect. If every district was 50-50, and the election result was 55-45, then every seat would go to the winning party.

True, but it would be fairer so than otherwise.
Another possibility is to draw districts which are all 90-10 for one party or the other, but I guess it's quite difficult to do (plus, it destroys competitivity and therefore favors incumbents).


Title: Re: If all states were to use the ME/NE system, then Obama would have won, 301-237
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 01, 2010, 07:52:20 PM
Considering the number of States where districts are gerrymandered in favor of Republicans, it's not surprising at all.

That really has little to do with it.

The fact is that Democrats are highly concentrated in few congressional districts around major cities, while most other districts are marginally or strongly Republican.

It means nothing. If congressional districts were drawn fairly, so that the most possible of them are close to the Statewide margin, there would be no problem with democratic underrepresentation. But indeed if the democratic vote is concentred in a few stronghold urban districts, such thing happens. It's all about how you draw districts.

Having districts with an unusual proportion of Democrats would occur even if the lines were drawn fairly. For example, CO-1 makes perfect sense, no matter what else you do in the state, but clearly has a vast number of Democrats.

Depends how you define "fairly drawn districts". The aesthetic aspect of a district isn't a criterion of fairness for me. The only valuable criterion is its competitivity in a situation of overall tie.

For example, in a situation of 50-50 statewide, if a district goes to democrats 60-40, no matter how it looks, then it is gerrymandered. And such gerrymander favors republicans.

Incorrect. If every district was 50-50, and the election result was 55-45, then every seat would go to the winning party.

True, but it would be fairer so than otherwise.
Another possibility is to draw districts which are all 90-10 for one party or the other, but I guess it's quite difficult to do (plus, it destroys competitivity and therefore favors incumbents).

Or you could draw districts that make sense from a geographical perspective and ignore voting patterns.


Title: Re: If all states were to use the ME/NE system, then Obama would have won, 301-237
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 02, 2010, 04:21:24 AM
Considering the number of States where districts are gerrymandered in favor of Republicans, it's not surprising at all.

That really has little to do with it.

The fact is that Democrats are highly concentrated in few congressional districts around major cities, while most other districts are marginally or strongly Republican.

It means nothing. If congressional districts were drawn fairly, so that the most possible of them are close to the Statewide margin, there would be no problem with democratic underrepresentation. But indeed if the democratic vote is concentred in a few stronghold urban districts, such thing happens. It's all about how you draw districts.

Having districts with an unusual proportion of Democrats would occur even if the lines were drawn fairly. For example, CO-1 makes perfect sense, no matter what else you do in the state, but clearly has a vast number of Democrats.

Depends how you define "fairly drawn districts". The aesthetic aspect of a district isn't a criterion of fairness for me. The only valuable criterion is its competitivity in a situation of overall tie.

For example, in a situation of 50-50 statewide, if a district goes to democrats 60-40, no matter how it looks, then it is gerrymandered. And such gerrymander favors republicans.

Incorrect. If every district was 50-50, and the election result was 55-45, then every seat would go to the winning party.

True, but it would be fairer so than otherwise.
Another possibility is to draw districts which are all 90-10 for one party or the other, but I guess it's quite difficult to do (plus, it destroys competitivity and therefore favors incumbents).

Or you could draw districts that make sense from a geographical perspective and ignore voting patterns.

Such drawing would be unfair, because it necessarily distorts the PV results to the number of districts won.


Title: Re: If all states were to use the ME/NE system, then Obama would have won, 301-237
Post by: jimrtex on March 15, 2010, 04:22:12 PM
The problem with this ME/NE system is gerrymandering.

I agree, but this could be remedied. Congress mandated single-member districts in 1967. The original bill introduced then would have provided for non-gerrymandered redistricting as well. If Congress could pass that law today, the ME/NE system would be more attractive.
Following the 1800 election, the Vermont legislature proposed to Congress that a constitutional amendment be proposed that would have electors popularly elected by electoral district, and that the districts have equal population and not be changed between censuses.

The ME/NE system of having a mix of district and at large electors is somewhat of an anomaly.  The more common system was electing all electors from districts.