Talk Elections

Largest % margins
Obama
1. Compton (Los Angeles): +90.55%
2. Berkeley (Alameda): +87.59%
3. Inglewood (Los Angeles): +86.83%
4. East Palo Alto (San Mateo): +84.46%
5. Oakland (Alameda): +84.24%
6. Emeryville (Alameda): +80.89%
7. Point Arena (Mendocino): +80.73%
8. Fairfax (Marin): +79.62%
9. Albany (Alameda): +78.87%
10. Richmond (Contra Costa): +77.42%
11. Lynwood (Los Angeles): +77.00%
12. Santa Cruz (Santa Cruz): +75.84%
13. San Pablo (Contra Costa): +73.90%
14. Mill Valley (Marin): +73.66%
15. Huron (Fresno): +73.64%
16. San Anselmo (Marin): +73.44%
17. El Cerrito (Contra Costa): +72.74%
18. Sebastopol (Sonoma): +72.72%
19. Maywood (Los Angeles): +72.05%
20. San Francisco (San Francisco): +70.59%

Bay Area towns dominate this list, either for ethnic diversity, "Bay Area liberalism," or both.  A few other lefty enclaves make the list, including several in affluent Marin County.  The other entries are heavily black Los Angeles area munis (#1, #3, #11) and a Mexican farming town (#15).

McCain
1. Maricopa (Kern): +57.83%
2. Taft (Kern): +52.32%
3. Villa Park (Orange): +43.85%
4. Montague (Siskiyou): +38.93%
5. Canyon Lake (Riverside): +38.39%
6. Dorris (Siskiyou): +37.82%
7. City of Industry (Los Angeles): +37.04%
8. Kingsburg (Fresno): +35.62%
9. Indian Wells (Riverside): +35.44%
10. Ripon (San Joaquin): +34.19%
11. Ridgecrest (Kern): +33.54%
12. Tulelake (Siskiyou): +31.98%
13. Rolling Hills (Los Angeles): +31.11%
14. Fort Jones (Sikiyou): +30.77%
15. Yorba Linda (Orange): +30.66%
16. Exeter (Tulare): +30.38%
17. Tehachapi (Kern): +30.11%
18. Norco (Riverside): +29.73%
19. Etna (Siskiyou): +29.15%
20. Susanville (Lassen): +28.00%

Suburban Republicanism isn't dead in California.  Well-to-do suburbs make five entries on the list:  either in the form of ultra-affluent enclaves (3,13,15) or McMansion-filled exurbs (5,9).

Beyond that, it's mostly desert towns in Southern California and angry gold-turned-lumber-turned-nothing towns in the Scott's Valley area of the Siskiyous.  Susanville is a prison town; Ripon is booming but I couldn't tell you why.  City of Industry, an overwhelmingly commercial city in the middle of Los Angeles, casts few ballots, but they're always overwhelmingly Republican.  Couldn't tell you why.

Alternative form of basically the same data, for those who hate percentage margins

Highest %
Obama
1. Compton - 94.72%
2. Inglewood - 92.83%
3. Berkeley - 92.49%
4. East Palo Alto - 91.56%
5. Oakland - 91.24%
6. Emeryville - 89.41%
7. Point Arena - 89.06%
8. Fairfax - 88.54%
9. Albany - 88.42%
10. Richmond - 87.95%
...
476. City of Industry - 29.63%
477. Dorris - 29.09%
478. Villa Park - 27.43%
479. Taft - 22.99%
480. Maricopa - 19.88%

McCain
1. Maricopa - 77.71%
2. Taft - 75.31%
3. Villa Park - 71.28%
4. Canyon Lake - 68.64%
5. Montague - 68.63%
6. Kingsburg - 67.11%
7. Indian Wells - 67.09%
8. Dorris - 66.91%
9. City of Industry - 66.67%
10. Ripon - 66.26%
...
476. East Palo Alto - 7.10%
477. Oakland - 7.01%
478. Inglewood - 6.00%
479. Berkeley - 4.91%
480. Compton - 4.17%

Other candidates scored 13.89% at Vernon, another City of Industry-type enclave with a GOP tilt (5 of 36 votes).  Other than that, 4.52% at Etna (off the Scott's Valley lumber shield) was Other's best show.  Arcata (which actually has people!), home to a lot of anti-Democratic Party Green voters, managed a high 4.37% showing for third parties.

This means the Supplement is out!?

oh hell yes!  Three days early, too.

Prop. 8 stuff next

Will take requests of any form (as always) as well as schooling about the nuances of Kern County

This explains why their site was down yesterday.

Lynwood is actually 86% hispanic and only 10% black. Also Ripon is booming due to exurban growth. Ripon is actually closer to the bay area by road than Stockton is. I don't think a lot of people moved there, but in a small town like that even small movements of people can make it seem like a "boom". And you should probably add Norco to the list of suburbs. Its a weird little place that tries to act rural but in reality it isn't. I stopped there to fill up on gas once and saw people riding down the streets in horses. wtf

You're right about Lynwood.  I was confusing it with Maywood, which was also on my list anyway.  Norco is perplexing because it's all "we don't use cars, we use horses," which is a very "model suburb" kind of thing to do (a la Peachtree City, Ga. and golf carts) but the incomes are not at all high.

Prop. 8
No
1. Berkeley: 87.39%
2. Fairfax: 86.63%
3. West Hollywood: 86.22%
4. Mill Valley: 85.45%
5. Santa Cruz: 84.53%
6. San Anselmo: 84.26%
7. Albany: 82.65%
8. Arcata: 81.46%
9. Sausalito: 81.21%
10. Point Arena: 81.15%
11. Sebastopol: 80.83%
12. Piedmont: 78.47%
13. Emeryville: 77.52%
14. Santa Monica: 77.44%
15. Corte Madera: 77.37%
16. Davis: 77.16%
17. Larkspur: 77.06%
18. El Cerrito: 76.27%
19. Palo Alto: 75.54%
20. Ross: 75.28%

Beyond the obvious entries, everything here is educated and affluent, with lots of Marin County appearances.  Davis hold UC-Davis.  Santa Monica's appearance is a little bit of a surprise (it isn't that educated, white or rich) but does show how minority voters knock a lot of lefty stalwarts off this list in the L.A. area.

Yes
1. Maricopa: 81.68%
2. Shafter: 81.37%
3. Kingsburg: 80.82%
4. Wasco: 80.79%
5. Taft: 80.57%
6. Dinuba: 78.68%
7. Vernon: 78.38%
8. McFarland: 78.27%
9. Mendota: 78.08%
10. Dos Palos: 77.96%
11. Exeter: 77.56%
12. Chowchilla: 77.44%
13. Corcoran: 77.04%
14. Tulare: 76.87%
15. Lindsay: 76.81%
16. Reedley: 76.60%
17. Firebaugh: 76.38%
18. Ripon: 76.26%
19. Hughson: 76.06%
20. San Joaquin: 75.97%

This is what happens when you take Hispanic farming towns and the Hispanics vote for the conservative option.  This list is heavily Central Valley and agricultural.   California's corwn jewel,Bakersfield itself, is #25 (75.18% yes).

Norco has a pretty typical income for the IE.

Also you say the yes list contains IE towns but I don't see any. Are they some obscure ones in the desert? In addition Santa Monica is pretty white by socal standards. And its not filled to the brim by republicans like other white socal cities.

Central Valley, not Inland Empire.  grr, sorry, it's late.  And while I'm at it: Compton hasn't been plurality black for ages either.

Prop. 8 vs. Obama margin

Best
1. Compton: +120.48%
2. San Joaquin: +110.68%
3. Mendota: +109.30%
4. Inglewood: +108.78%
5. Huron: +108.31%
6. Parlier: +107.03%
7. Lynwood: +103.49%
8. Coachella: +102.80%
9. McFarland: +101.05%
10. Livingston: +100.53%
11. Orange Cove: +100.11%
12. Calexico: +99.06%
13. Maywood: +96.43%
14. Arvin: +96.03%
15. Paramount: +93.61%
16. Firebaugh: +90.07%
17. Bell Gardens: +89.13%
18. Greenfield: +88.54%
19. East Palo Alto: +87.91%
20. Huntington Park: +87.55%

Well, let's see here.

Every place on this list except for Compton and Inglewood, is over 70% Hispanic, and most are at least around 90%. Compton is 57% Hispanic and 40% black; Inglewood is 46% and 47%, respectively.  Any questions?

Worst
1. Hidden Hills: -33.84%
2. Rolling Hills: -19.61%
3. Hermosa Beach: -15.38%
4. Manhattan Beach: -15.29%
5. Newport Beach: -14.61%
6. Indian Wells: -12.03%
7. Villa Park: -10.95%
8. Beverly Hills: -10.37%
9. Palos Verdes Estates: -9.31%
10. Laguna Beach: -9.15%
11. Malibu: -8.92%
12. Ross: -7.10%
13. Del Mar: -7.10%
14. Belvedere: -6.75%
15. Atherton: -6.61%
16. Rolling Hills Estates: -6.44%
17. Coronado: -6.19%
18. Calabasas: -5.67%
19. Portola Valley: -5.20%
20. West Hollywood: -4.88%

Ridiculously wealthy areas and a gay enclave at #20.

The remaining list of positive performances is: Rancho Mirage, Woodside, Monte Sereno, El Segundo, Orinda, San Clemente, Montague, Solana Beach, Dana Point, Agoura Hills, Westlake Village, Lafayette, San Marino, Huntington Beach and Hillsborough.

With the exception of Montague (a freak heavily-GOP inclusion from Siskiyou lumber country), more of the same, although a few upper middle class entries in heavily white areas.  After that, touristy areas increasingly show up -- Mammoth Lakes was essentially at par, and Big Bear Lake (despite being Republican and working-class ???) followed.

Still, lots of clearly affluent areas with clear overperformances for Prop. 8.

     Did Berkeley actually swing Republican from 2004?

No, Berkeley didn't.  Obama gained 3.09% over Kerry.

Discluded from analysis:  The Los Angeles incorporated enclaves.  I don't believe Bradbury went from 0 to 468 voters.  City of Industry "swung" from 1-0 Bush to 36-16-2 McCain.  Make of that what you will, but I'm not including them.  Also not included is Wildomar, which was incorporated in 2008.

Swing from 2004 to 2008
To Obama
1. Adelanto: +36.31%
2. Williams: +32.31%
3. Avenal: +30.96%
4. Orange Cove: +30.80%
5. Firebaugh: +30.54%
6. Perris: +30.13%
7. Farmersville: +29.75%
8. Lake Elsinore: +28.66%
9. Victorville: +27.80%
10. Woodlake: +27.62%
11. Ceres: +26.80%
12. Moreno Valley: +26.54%
13. Imperial: +26.53%
14. Sand City: +25.58%
15. Calipatria: +25.55%
16. Livingston: +25.45%
17. Lindsay: +25.40%
18. Riverbank: +25.21%
19. Patterson: +25.18%
20. Merced: +24.98%

Things that assisted in large swings:  Hispanic population, housing crisis.  Some, like #1 Adelanto, combined the two.  But there were lots of places (like Lake Elsinore) that saw massive Obama swings despite having only moderate Latino counts, probably because of what I can imagine are ridiculous foreclosure rates.

The only sore thumb is Sand City, which is basically a retail area incorporated as a city for no reason.  It has an artist's colony, or something, but more significantly a population of only 261.

Riverbank (#18) officially calls itself "the City of Action."  This has no electoral significance, but I thought it was awesome, although probably a lie.

To McCain (or less to Obama)
1. Beverly Hills: -4.70%
2. Laguna Woods: -1.66%
3. Fortuna: -0.75%
4. Daly City: +0.01%
5. Brisbane: +1.14%
6. West Hollywood: +1.57%
7. Albany: +1.72%
8. Colma: +1.78%
9. Yountville: +2.13%
10. Maricopa: +2.28%
11. Sonora: +2.43%
12. San Francisco: +2.48%
13. Rosemead: +2.86%
14. Irwindale: +3.06%
15. Berkeley: +3.09%
16. City of Commerce: +3.11%
17. Calimesa: +3.54%
18. El Cerrito: +3.64%
19. Hercules: +3.87%
20. South San Francisco: +3.92%

It's not that Obama was unpopular in a lot of these cities, but rather that Bush really just couldn't have done much worse.  That gives a mix of lefty Bay Area locales, and the super-affluent but also quite secular.

Rosemead has a high Asian population.  Irwindale is heavily Hispanic, but may also be affected by whatever shenanigans L.A. Elections pulled with City of Industry and Vernon between '04 and '08.  It's a similar place.

Interestingly, this list lacks much in the way of strong blue-collar towns.  It's mostly ceiling-hitting in Cali -- although certainly there are some entries (such as in San Francisco) where blue-collar elements kicked in against Obama.

Bush/No on Prop. 8 (Bush margin, Prop. 8 margin)
Aliso Viejo (Orange) +17.66 -3.09
Amador (Amador) +10.85 -8.47
Atherton (San Mateo) +2.27 -23.06
Clayton (Contra Costa) +5.92 -0.64
Costa Mesa (Orange) +12.64 -0.95
Danville (Contra Costa) +4.80 -9.76
El Segundo (Los Angeles) +8.06 -8.75
Ferndale (Humboldt) +13.53 -0.84
Grass Valley (Nevada) +5.68 -0.42
Hidden Hills (Los Angeles) +5.39 -35.93
Hillsborough (San Mateo) +4.64 -14.48
Irvine (Orange) +5.63 -2.20
Westlake Village (Los Angeles) +6.23 -7.63

All but three are affluent suburbia.  Ferndale is a swing town in Humboldt County, which seems weirdly Republican for its demographics and locale.  I think Grass Valley is an old gold town that's now panning to tourists.  Sort of weird it voted Bush in the first place, really.

Amador City is completely inexplicable, for all I can tell.  It had no apparent business voting no on Prop. 8.

No McCain municipalities failed Prop. 8.  The closest was Rancho Mirage (Prop. 8 +2.04%, McCain +6.91%).

------------------

I should go asleep before I start writing even more incoherently.  Taking requests for tomorrow on any state issues.

Yeah, rural hatred of Obama is certainly overplayed, as it's primarily a southern/Appalachian phenomenon. Obama did quite a bit better than Gore or Kerry in rural areas outside of the South. Not as much better as his improvement in urban or suburban areas, of course (especially suburban areas, since they can swing a lot more than urban areas which are more maxed out). And not as well as Clinton obviously, whom he did approximately as well as nationally.

But as you say, the urban maxing out thing overrode the rural hatred thing. I'm sure similar lists for other non southern states would show the same thing.

I'd also mention that McCain was a better fit than Bush for many of the cities on the list of highest Republican swings/lowest Democratic swings. That did play a part, I'm sure.

My anecdotes are no more relevant than those of any of the other 7 billion people on the planet, but in my experience even people who voted for McCain around here are at least cheering for Obama, and willing to give him a chance. They just want things fixed, and if it turns out they were wrong about how to do that, they are more than ok with that. I've yet to meet someone who wants Obama to fail (sorry, Rush).

Does anyone have a comparison of population (or population density), for the top prop 8 or McCain performances--I would imagine most of these are pretty sparsely populated.

Hermosa Beach and Costa Mesa are not that wealthy, particularly the latter, although it has some upper middle class census tracts.

I would have guessed that Beverly Hills wasn't so pro-Obama.

How did the city vote?

Beverly Hills:

Obama    McCain
10,331    6,801

Prop 8/No  Yes
10,921    5,789   


You know one thing that occurs to me about this Obama/McCain, Yes/No on Prop 8 comparison, is that it may be that those GOP leaning independents and Republicans who voted for Obama, also probably by a huge majority  voted against Prop 8, ala e.g. Torie.  Thus in higher income areas it is hard I would think for the No on 8 totals to be higher than Obama's. Meanwhile, it would not take too many Hispanics in such areas to make the totals lower. That is what happened in my town.  McCain won 17K to 15K, while Prop 8 won 17.5K to 14.5K. I suspect that movement was mostly from the few odd Hispanic voters in town, along with maybe a few Asians.

That's my Santa Cruz.

Costa Mesa also has a good proportion of students living there and it contains Orange county community college. I know students here at UC Irvine prefer living in Costa Mesa over north or east Irvine. It is also closer to Newport beach and cheaper than Irvine to boot. Also the hispanic population there seems to be particularly transient/new/illegal. These two things could explain the prop 8 results because on first look they make no sense.

Also Ferndale and those other cities around it(especially Fortuna) used to be huge lumber towns. Not anymore though and I am sure they blame the dems. Southern Humboldt is full of hippies and so is the Eureka/Arcata area, but Ferndale and surroundings contain a good amount of blue collar whites. There is also some agriculture in those areas.

Marin County will be interested in knowing that it isn't part of the bay area.

Haha.  I'm quite aware that Marin County is in the Bay Area (unlike the Central Valley, the Bay Area is a place I know); that's just what happens when you write stuff at 1 AM.  The point was to contrast the liberalism there with, say, Oakland, Union City, Emeryville, Fremont, etc., leading up to the Prop. 8 stuff.  Which was kind of useless since I wrote "Bay Area liberalism" and made that super-vague, but whatever.  :P

I'm intrigued by what makes Villa Park so Republican.  It's wealthy, but if $81k MHI doesn't go so far in Hermosa Beach, I can't imagine Villa Park's $116k is that flashy.

IIRC Villa Park is just big lots, mostly half an acre. Thus it attracts a certain kind of wealthy individual who is willing to sacrifice the ocean and the good climate that goes with it. It's probably a very "family friendly" place. I went there once and it didn't strike me as being too flashy or overwhelmingly wealthy.

Can you please do some sort of analysis of Prop. 11?  I'm too lazy to do it myself, but I remember looking at the county map for it and being completely bewildered.

And here's a map of prop 8 in the Bay Area.  Mostly it's self-explanatory; I don't get Morgan Hill though.  And I didn't know that Gilroy is majority Hispanic.
()
Edit: oops, I confused Newark and Union City.

Milpitas voted yes on 8?? Interesting. Now I really want to see Fremont precinct results map.

     I have relatives in Milpitas. I hope they voted no on 8. :(

I have one for all of Alameda County.
()

Milpitas voted yes on Prop. 8 and it wasn't even close: 57.49%.

Prop. 1A (High-Speed Train Bond)
1. San Francisco (San Francisco) - 78.33%
2. Berkeley (Alameda) - 76.37%
3. West Hollywood (Los Angeles) - 74.79%
4. Sebastopol (Sonoma) - 73.31%
5. Fairfax (Marin) - 72.63%
6. Emeryville (Alameda) - 73.24%
7. Colma (San Mateo) - 71.89%
8. Point Arena (Mendocino) - 71.82%
9. Mill Valley (Marin) - 71.50%
10. Oakland (Alameda) - 70.90%
11. Santa Cruz (Santa Cruz) - 69.74%
12. Albany (Alameda) - 69.65%
13. San Anselmo (Marin) - 69.46%
14. Daly City (San Mateo) - 68.92%
15. Sausalito (Marin) - 68.79%
16. East Palo Alto (San Mateo) - 68.62%
17. McFarland (Kern) - 68.29%
18. Calexico (Imperial) - 68.26%
19. Coachella (Riverside) - 68.21%
20. El Cerrito (Contra Costa) - 68.18%
...
460. Paradise (Butte) - 32.43%
461. Yreka (Siskiyou) - 32.31%
462. Villa Park (Orange) - 31.29%
463. Susanville (Lassen) - 31.08%
464. Biggs (Butte) - 30.66%
465. Tehama (Tehama) - 30.27%
466. Fortuna (Humboldt) - 30.22%
467. Tulelake (Siskiyou) - 30.00%
468. Rio Dell (Humboldt) - 29.84%
469. Plymouth (Amador) - 29.75%
470. Willows (Glenn) - 29.74%
471. Corning (Tehama) - 29.60%
472. City of Industry (Los Angeles) - 28.85%
473. Loyalton (Sierra) - 28.69%
474. Orland (Glenn) - 28.65%
475. Etna (Siskiyou) - 27.98%
476. Alturas (Modoc) - 26.46%
477. Montague (Siskiyou) - 25.95%
478. Dorris (Siskiyou) - 24.60%
479. Fort Jones (Siskiyou) - 24.45%

Urban liberal areas liked it (as did rural Hispanic towns, apparently); rural conservative ones, especially in the remote North, didn't.   The Humboldt County entries on the "no" list are odd.

Prop. 11 (Redistricting, per request)
1. Belvedere (Marin) - 71.36%
2. Portola Valley (San Mateo) - 68.58%
3. Atherton (San Mateo) - 65.89%
4. Ross (Marin) - 65.26%
5. Sand City (Monterey) - 64.58%
6. Rolling Hills (Los Angeles) - 63.74%
7. Orinda (Contra Costa) - 63.56%
8. Los Altos Hills (Santa Clara) - 63.35%
9. Woodside (San Mateo) - 63.19%
10. Monte Sereno (Santa Clara) - 63.03%
...
470. Guadalupe (Santa Barbara) - 38.00%
471. Fort Jones (Siskiyou) - 37.64%
472. Inglewood (Los Angeles) - 37.57%
473. San Francisco (San Francisco) - 36.94%
474. Compton (Los Angeles) - 36.76%
475. East Palo Alto (San Mateo) - 36.43%
476. Greenfield (Monterey) - 35.43%
477. Soledad (Monterey) - 35.37%
478. Gonzales (Monterey) - 35.25%
479. Tulelake (Siskiyou) - 32.84%

Very liberal towns and very conservative ones both voted "no."  Wealthy left-leaning suburbs were the strongest performances.  Hispanic voters were pretty strongly "no."  Weird results.

Regarding the Alameda county map, it looks like the affluent and heavily Asian mission district of Fremont voted yes on 8. The Milpitas results make more sense now. Also I think the exit polls understated the support for 8 amongst Asians and Latinos while overstating it amongst blacks. Easily explained by subsample margin of error.

Regarding the prop1a results, it makes a lot of sense that those logging towns in humboldt would vote against something that doesn't benefit them in the least.

Prop. 4 (Parental notification on abortion)
1. Holtville (Imperial) - 78.51%
2. Westmorland (Imperial) - 75.91%
3. San Joaquin (Fresno) - 75.29%
4. Imperial (Imperial) - 75.19%
5. Calexico (Imperial) - 75.13%
6. Wasco (Kern) - 75.11%
7. McFarland (Kern) - 74.95%
8. Mendota (Fresno) - 74.66%
9. El Centro (Imperial) - 73.37%
10. Calipatria (Imperial) - 73.14%
...
470. Piedmont (Alameda) - 20.74%
471. Arcata (Humboldt) - 20.30%
472. West Hollywood (Los Angeles) - 19.51%
473. San Anselmo (Marin) - 18.40%
474. Albany (Alameda) - 18.25%
475. Point Arena (Mendocino) - 17.03%
476. Santa Cruz (Santa Cruz) - 16.49%
477. Mill Valley (Marin) - 16.32%
478. Fairfax (Marin) - 15.88%
479. Berkeley (Alameda) - 14.10%

I doubt there's any need for commentary on this one.

I'm trying to compile the largest and most densely populated cities in California that McCain carried. I've only checked So. Cal. and Bakersfield, so please make additions if you can.

City (county)          McCain margin             pop.

Bakersfield (Kern)      12.674%   308,392   
Huntington Beach (Orange)   7.339%   194,436
Santa Clarita (Los Angeles)   2.747%   168,008
Garden Grove (Orange)   4.312%   166,296
Corona (Riverside)      0.683%   150,253

City (county)            McCain margin    density

Garden Grove (Orange)   4.312%      9,238.7
Westminster (Orange)   13.986%      8,952.0
Huntington Beach (Orange)      7.339%      7,478.3
El Cajon (San Diego)      5.209%      6,554.0
Lake Forest (Orange)      9.203%      6,360.3

Anyone know any more about these cities?

The homes are pretty big, big yards, and a fairly low cost per square foot of living space (it's inland, the air quality is not all that great, and in general no views, and some rather marginal (but certainly not terrible) neighborhoods not that far away), and and a pretty elite school system which just takes in upper middle class housing tracts. It's also almost all Anglo (with next to no Jews). You stir that all together, and what you get are conservative oriented upper middle class parents with kids - the perfect storm for max GOP performance.

Then go to my street - views, expensive per square foot (smaller homes but not really much cheaper than those in Villa Park), excellent air quality, and not one kid on the block (23 homes).  My zone is becoming rather marginal GOP territory these days.

Btw, why are Victorville and Apple Valley so different?

The answer from what I gather:  Victorville is cul de sac-y (probably hit by foreclosures hard too), Apple Valley is more of an ungodly post-apocalyptic desert hellscape with big lots.  Take a look at the Street View pretty much anywhere in Apple Valley.  Houses built on miles upon miles of dust.  There is no green.  Its demographics are similar, but it's a distinctly different place and lifestyle.

I'll leave it to someone who's been to SBC to give a less emotive answer :P

In other words, just like Victorville. ???

Look at their racial demographics. Apple valley is only 10% black and 25% hispanic with whites making up the rest. Victorville on the other hand is 50% hispanic and 16% black. Also like Alcon said it seems like Apple Valley has more big lots and big houses/mansions. Victorville just seems to be a bunch of 2000 square foot houses with a small yard. The incomes aren't too different though. I have driven through that area a few times but never stopped.

The part of Victorville I've checked have all been supdevelopments, except for the most Republican part.  I don't have a full precinct map, though.  But the spread is much bigger than I'd ever guess.  Employment looks pretty comparable, too.

In any case, the parts of Victorville that most resemble Apple Valley (geographically and in platting) are comparably Republican.

Platting? What does a shithole in the guts of Manchester have to do with Californian suburban shitholes?

:D

I assume that was just snark, right?  Or maybe y'all don't have "platting" under that name.

Thanks to Alcon's link, I verified that the above are correct. Below are the largest and most densely populated cities in California that voted for Prop. 8.


City (county)          Yes %             pop.

Fresno (Fresno)  64.73%     466,714
Santa Ana (Orange)    61.87%   340,024
Anaheim (Orange)  62.35%   334,425
Bakersfield (Kern)   75.18%   308,392
Riverside   (Riverside) 60.3%   293,761


City (county)            Yes %    density

Inglewood (Los Angeles)   60.97%   12,627.9
Santa Ana (Orange)    61.87%   12,547.0
Garden Grove (Orange)    65.57%      9,238.7
Westminster (Orange)   65.89%      8,952.0
Downey (Los Angeles)   63.46%   8,820.6

Highest and lowest prop. 8 support by CD:

Yes

CA-21 (Nunes) 73.3%
CA-20 (Costa) 72.2%
CA-22 (McCarthy) 70.4%
CA-19 (Radanovich) 67.5%
CA-41 (Lewis) 67.3%

No

CA-8 (Pelosi) 76.7%
CA-9 (Lee) 71.8%
CA-30 (Waxman) 71.1%
CA-6 (Woolsey) 70.5%
CA-14 (Eshoo) 65.7%

As for comparing Prop. 8 vs. President, the CD map is very similar to the Kerry/Bush map--with the black/hispanic districts voting for Prop. 8, except for CA-31 (Becerra) and CA-33 (Watson) voting No on Prop. 8. Are minorities in CA-31 and CA-33 more supportive of gay marriage, or is the white population in those districts especially liberal?

Those areas are just very liberal overall.  CA-33 has a lot of very socially liberal areas mixed in with moderate minority areas. I am not sure what to make of CA-31. That district definitely has a lot of liberal latinos, or maybe they are just young. I think there are some newly gentrified areas in that district as well. Anyways check out the precinct map of LA county.
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/politics/la-2008election-lacountyprecincts,0,5863152.htmlstory

BTW does anyone have a prop 8 precinct map for Santa Clara county?