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Title: The debate as I see it Post by: patrick1 on October 02, 2004, 08:09:36 AM Kerry did a good job in establishing himself as a viable alternative to Bush.
With his performance on Thursday night I think he "secured his base". I think he locked up states like New Jersey, Michigan and Minnesota-that were Republican longshots to begin with. Bush is still slightly ahead in E.C. I.M.O. but I do not see this race being a landslide by any means. Title: Re:The debate as I see it Post by: Democratic Hawk on October 02, 2004, 10:55:56 AM Kerry did a good job in establishing himself as a viable alternative to Bush. With his performance on Thursday night I think he "secured his base". I think he locked up states like New Jersey, Michigan and Minnesota-that were Republican longshots to begin with. Bush is still slightly ahead in E.C. I.M.O. but I do not see this race being a landslide by any means. Patrick, I think you've pretty much called it like it is. Kerry will certainly consolidate his base and, ultimately, win some 'undecided' votes. We'll just have to see how the other two debates pan out. Dave Title: Re:The debate as I see it Post by: Sam Spade on October 02, 2004, 11:40:30 AM We'll see. I think you could be quite right. Of course, on the flip side, I really don't see any Bush votes (or even leaning Bush votes changing from this debate). Peter Hart (D pollster) basically made this point in his polls last night on Hardball.
The main problem Kerry is going to have over the long haul is that Bush JA is still above 50% (RCP has it at 51.9% now). Nearly all pollsters agree that this is the best measure of an incumbent President's eventually vote totals in the election. Kerry needs to get this down into the upper 40s (at least 49%), otherwise the numbers of this race will probably start looking like Carter-Ford, except a little bit better for Bush in this case. Just IMO. |