Talk Elections

DALEY IS OUT.  One of these three will be the Junior Senator from Illinois in 2011, most likely Sexy Lexi... supposing the fact that he lost 38% of his college savings program doesn't catch up to him too hard


http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/04/bill-daley-not-running-for-illinois-senate-seat.php

I need to learn how to spell Giannoulias's name instead of always copying and pasting.

I've been following him since forever and I still type "alexi g" into google to help me spell his name every time.

But they're Greeks, it happens

:(

C'mon Kirk!!

Kirk would  be a recruiting coup.  If he ran, he alone would be the difference between a good recruitment year and  bad one.  Better for the Republicans than the Democratic desire to have Sebelius run in Kansas.



WE CAN'T SPELL YOUR NAMES THAT'S WHAT ELLIS ISLAND IS FOR.   Google's top two completions for "alexi g" are actually alexi giannoulias spelled wrong and right. 

ELLIS ISLAND: Giannoulias?  WELCOME TO AMERICA ALEXI GEORGE

Actually his name would be Alexi Littlejohn.

fair enough.   if he can get over destroying college funds he could he the first Greek president after the Dukakis flop'


It's hard to imagine a scenario where he isn't a Senator in 2011

Candidates not yet in the race will all be declaring in the next few weeks. Since petitions start to circulate in August, the candidates will want to have organizations well underway.

Well, there's the scenario where Rezko sings like a canary about his dealings with Broadway Bank.  And there's the scenario where sob stories about the (supposedly) predatory loans Giannoulias made as a banker at Broadway Bank get put on the airwaves with the support of an opponent in the Democrat primary. 

I was exaggerating, yes.

Obama's going to be secretly pulling for Alexi though, one can imagine, since Obama endorsed Alexi over the IL Democratic Party's endorsed candidate, for treasurer.

Maybe Senator Madigan after all.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/democratic-party/madigan-reconsidering-illinois.html (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/democratic-party/madigan-reconsidering-illinois.html)

Saw that, but I don't buy that until I see some more leakage.

In that case you'll need Senator Joe the Plumber.

Haha, cute.

We'll see, she'd be a game changer.  But yeah, she'd lose almost all of her ridiculously big warchest she's already collected to become governor, and she's always wanted to be governor.

The fundraising is a big deal, and she's got that lined up for Gov. The polling looks attractive against Gianoulias for Sen, but he's been a great fundraiser in that race so far. If she ran for Sen he might still run as well and the early Feb primary that would help her for Gov does not help much against Alexi. Alexi got into the Treas office as an unknown in 2006 with support from Obama by beating Madigan's handpicked candidate.

I think Madigan will decide to enter the Senate race.  She will get elected for 6 years instead of 4, there are no term limits, she's out of her stepfather's shadow and the incumbent Senator is less likable than the incumbent Governor.

You make it seem like she wouldn't rather be governor.

No term limits for IL gov either.

Yes, but considering the track record for Illinois governors, it's probably safer that she go for the Senate. Plus there's a greater than zero percent chance she gets elected President in 2014! Wait, that wouldn't work.

That assumes all else is equal.  She'd have to give up her $4 million dollar warchest, and she would strongly prefer being governor in Springfield where she's comfortable and in command.  It's not 100% about finding the quickest way for a promotion.

Schako out:

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/06/08/schakowsky_will_not_run_for_senate.html

I don't care who wins. It's either a Democrat or a sleezbag republican.


Illinois republicans are nothing but scum and sleezbags. The most corrupt republican party in America. And the most unlovable party.

Her husband has always been a liability in a statewide race. Over the weekend I heard that this would keep her out. It seems that Sweet heard the same things.

Unless Ron Kirk runs I don't give a crap who runs or wins. I hate the IL GOP. Ron Kirk is one of the only 2 good Republicans in the whole state.

I have never heard of a Ron Kirk before? I have heard of a Mark Kirk though. Is that who you are refering to?

Though Ron Kirk would've made a great senator. :-)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_Kirk

You had your chance, Texas. Now you got "Big John".

Now I remember him.

Yea. Im eant Mark Kirk.

shocker: Madigan running for reelection as AG.

 And with that, Kennedy and Mark Kirk are set to announce.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0709/Big_news_out_of_Illinois.html
http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0709/Kirk_running_for_the_Senate.html

I'd say it's a surprise but not a shocker. As I've noted earlier the Senate isn't a great fit given her family and state campaign fund. The protracted budget mess leaves the Gov's mansion less attractive for 2011 than it would have appeared a couple months ago. Petitions can circulate in four weeks so a decision was needed to free up the Dem field. The state has awaited her decision, and now the dominoes can fall.

Is this real or am I imagining this? If it is real then Kirk has my instant endorsement.

Who picks up Kirk's house district now?

Probably some Democrat. However considering we are far done in the minority I think it might be a tad easier to hold then lets say if it were open in 2006 or something. If we can find a moderate State Sen or Rep with a lot of Dough we would have a good chance of holding it. Thankfully Obama isn't atop the ticket in 2010.

On the D side State Sen Michael Bond has already announced, and State Sen Susan Garrett may also jump in. State Rep Beth Coulson is often mentioned on the R side since she consistently wins in a 60% D district and would likely appeal to Kirk's crossover base.

How ironic that Coulson district is almost the same in terms of partisanship too Kirk's district(Which also ironically voted almost as Democratic as the State as a whole). Obama got 61% there in his district I think. She is also a female of course and I would guess she would be fairly moderate to win her current constituency. How good is she at fundraising?

Top drawer. She generated over 400K for her reelection in 2008.

No shocker, Democrats already have viable candidates in Pat Quinn and Ginnoulious for those respective offices.   Bill Daley did the honorable thing and stepped aside as well. Let's give Quinn a chance, once he has a running mate he would be stronger.

Even better. I pray she wins the primary.

I'd vote for Kirk most likely.

Well there goes my prediction that Lisa Madigan will run for president in 2016.

Kirk vs. Alexi.  Damn the Republicans are having ridiculous recruiting success lately.

The GOP has learned its lesson, at least in that regard.

Simmons
Crist
Kirk


If Ayotte runs I would say the Republicans have won the recruitment battle. Shame we couldn't find someone better in MO though.

and don't forget that Grayson is outraising Bunning, who isn't meeting his own fundraising goals to stay in the race (though he claims, probably falsely, that he is still in it)


the Democrats look to be picking up Melancon, which would be a coup about on the level of Kirk

y'all have only bombed in Nevada recruiting, understandable since half of the GOP political and fundraising establishment there is backing Reid

Its not are fault Reid has become TSAR of the Nevada Empire. Who wouldn't support Reid if the alternative is Jail?

I would also say Missouri is another failure since Blunt is horrible and Steelman is too much like another Sarah we all know to well. If we could get a Todd Aiken or Sam Graves that would a recruiting Coup.

I forgot about Kentucky.

You forgot about North Carolina, unless the recent talk of Cooper running proved to be false yet again.

I think that Cornyn should seriously consider doing something about Vitter. I mean they are both highly Conservative, he should go and tell him that him running again would help advance the radical GAy agenda or something :). You know, whatever works.

The last state that may turnout to be a huge success in recuiting though he probably is running on his own, is Frazier in Colorado. We will have to wait in see though. Compared to 2008 where the only recuiting coups were Johanns and Risch, and 2006 when some fools considered Kean Jr a Recruiting coup, I would say we are doing much, much better this time.

I can't help but think that Kirk is favored to lose at this point, even if he is the best candidate and Alexi might have some ethical problems

Barack Obama bucked the party establishment in order to campaign for Alexi before, as they are good friends. I know he's president now and things are different, but I'd have an extremely hard time believing he wouldn't cut Alexi at least a great ad or two or that such ads wouldn't be fairly effective

But even a 40% at picking up this seat is amazing for the GOP, and Kirk is clean and has a great biography

Kirk will NOT run

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/07/10/kirk_will_not_run_for_illinois_senate_seat.html

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There are concerns about Kirk's recent divorce, could be some messy details coming out if he decides to run for Senate.

Should be interesting.

Apparently, IL GOP Chairman Andy McKenna - who was trying to recruit Kirk - is contemplating a run himself - http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2009/07/the_latest_on_mark_kirk_runnin.html (http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2009/07/the_latest_on_mark_kirk_runnin.html)

McKenna ran in the 2004 primary. He was my second choice back then. I have no doubt that I agree with him more than I agree with Kirk so I won't I'll at least be personally happy with the nominee if Kirk doesn't run.

There must be someone named Ryan that will run.

The IL GOP is hilarious. 

Its interesting to look at the facts.

Kirk has the lowest rating of the entire Republican congressional delegation for Illinois from the American Conservative Union (2008), the Nartional Right to Life  (2007-2008), the National Rigle Association (2008) and the National Taxpayer Union (2008),

Indeed, his ratings from the NRL and NRA was lower than several Democrats in the Illinois congressional delegation.

Aren't those reasons to like Kirk?

Well between this and Burris setting off into the sunset to etch more accomplishments into his tombstone, I'd say these are some pretty good developments for the Democrats.

As I suggested might happen, Coulson is in (http://teamamerica10th.blogspot.com/2009/08/state-representative-beth-coulson-ready.html) the race for IL-10.

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I have read into Coulson and believe she will win, especially if it is a good year for the gop.

Chris Kennedy is out.  So far it seems Alexi's only competition is Cheryle Jackson, president of the Chicago Urban League with close ties to the Blagojevich scandals.

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Her first line of attack is saying Alexi is part of the "privileged class."  lol

http://abclocal.go.com/wls/story?section=news/local&id=6971529

There's a new candidate for US Senate in IL on the D side. David Hoffman was the inspector general for Chicago and is a former federal prosecutor. He's hired Axelrod's firm to run the campaign. 

From the Chicago Tribune (http://newsblogs.chicagotribune.com/clout_st/2009/08/chicago-inspector-general-running-for-us-senate.html):

Hoffman's working with Hillary's old pollster too.... a bit confused I'd assume Axelrod's people would line up behind Alexi

I think the previous push for Chris Kennedy shows that there is a lot of concern among Dems with Alexi as the Senate standard bearer.

Apparently the Cook County Sheriff (the one who is refusing to evict foreclosed-on homeowners) is also sniffing around the Senate race?