Talk Elections

http://blogs.mcall.com/penn_ave/2009/07/gerlach-to-run-for-governor-retire-from-congress.html (http://blogs.mcall.com/penn_ave/2009/07/gerlach-to-run-for-governor-retire-from-congress.html)


Should be fun, as always.

Thinking Pike v. Schroder?  D's SHOULD pick Dinniman.  Win this seat once and for all.

Not sure about the Dem side but, yeah, we're probably going with Curt.

Cao, Kirk, and now Gerlach... the R's aren't helping their own chances to take back the house with these 3 likely flips.

I didn't think Cao has announced yet that he won't be seeking reelection.

That's irrelevant.

Well, as for Cao, he might as well be getting his resume out to K Street.  As for PA 6, it would lean Dem by default but I don't know too much about Doug Pike.  I have heard of Curt Schroder though and the Dems should coax Andy Dinniman to run.  I don't know much about IL-10, but it sounds a lot like a PA 6/7/8 or even an NJ-3 type district.

IL-10 is a lot like CT-04. 

With the exception of Cao I think IL-10 is the most Dem leaning district held by a Repub giving Obama 61%. Luckily we have a candidate who represents a State House District that went to Obama with 60%, and she is top drawer fundraiser. But since there will likely be a primary challenger and that this is the ILL GOP we are talking about, there is a good chance that they could f**k it up as usuall.

What about this Curt Schroder fellow? How is he at fundraising, how well does he fit the district, and finally what is current position?

I still have my Lois Murphy sign hanging on my wall :D

HP


:P


This isn't lean anything yet unless Dinniman runs.

Nor or they helping their chance at winning seats in the Seat and Governor's Mansions :D

Its tossup/tilt Democratic.  Just look at the Obama vote in the district, 58%-41%. 

Delaware's at-large is likely to flip as well as Castle probably won't be running for reelection

Obama's totals in Illinois overstate the Dem lean of the district. But this still may beat out all but a few others on Kerry numbers...

The only Republicans left in Kerry districts are Cao (75-24), Kirk (53-47), Castle (53-46), Gerlach (52-48), Reichert (51-48), and possibly Dent (50-50).

Hopefully Reichert deicdes to stay in the house then run for senator.

Yea its a shame considering there used to be what 20 or 30 Repubs in Kerry districts.

Let's see... you had Leach and Nussle, the three Connecticut Republicans, Beauprez, Northup, Heather Wilson, Fitzpatrick, that guy that Ron Klein beat, Bass, Weldon, and I think that's it. So, 18 or so? C'est la vie.

Clay Shaw. There is also Jim Walsh, I think NY 25 went to Kerry.

I realize this is a discussion about PA-06, but since we're on the discussion of congressional districts voting the opposite way from their CPVIs or incumbents, here's a list I found - don't know if it warrants any merit or discussion.

Republican Districts Won By Obama
• LA-02 (Joseph Cao - New Orleans) - Obama 74.13, McCain 24.86 = D + 49.27 (D+25)
• DE-AL (Mike Castle - Delaware) - Obama 61.91, McCain 36.93 = D + 24.98 (D+7)
• IL-10 (Mark Kirk - North Chicago Suburbs) - Obama 60.92, McCain 38.13 = D + 22.79 (D+6)
• PA-06 (Jim Gerlach - Philadelphia Suburbs) - Obama 57.81, McCain 41.21 = D + 16.60 (D+4)
• WA-08 (Dave Reichert - Seattle Suburbs) - Obama 56.62, McCain 41.83 = D + 14.79 (D+3)
• IL-06 (Peter Roskam - Chicago Suburbs) - Obama 55.91, McCain 42.76 = D + 13.15 (D+0)
• PA-15 (Charlie Dent - Lehigh Valley) - Obama 55.58, McCain 43.14 = D + 12.44 (D+2)
• MI-06 (Fred Upton - Kalamazoo) - Obama 54.12, McCain 44.18 = D + 9.94 (R+0)
• IL-13 (Judy Biggert - Chicago Suburbs) - Obama 54.21, McCain 44.60 = D + 9.61 (R+1)
• OH-12 (Pat Tiberi - Columbus Suburbs) - Obama 54.15, McCain 44.62 = D + 9.53 (D+1)
• NJ-02 (Frank LoBiondo - Atlantic City) - Obama 54.00, McCain 44.71 = D + 9.29 (D+1)
• MI-11 (Thaddeus McCotter - Detroit Suburbs) - Obama 53.78, McCain 44.56 = D + 9.22 (R+0)
• IA-04 (Tom Latham - Western, Ames) - Obama 53.11, McCain 45.53 = D + 7.58 (D+0)
• IL-16 (Don Manzullo - Northern, Rockford) - Obama 52.78, McCain 45.52 = D + 7.26 (R+0)
• MI-08 (Mike J. Rogers - Lansing) - Obama 52.58, McCain 45.72 = D + 6.86 (R+2)
• VA-10 (Frank Wolf - Northern, D.C. Suburbs) - Obama 52.90, McCain 46.06 = D + 6.84 (R+2)
• MN-03 (Erik Paulsen - Minneapolis Suburbs) - Obama 52.41, McCain 45.99 = D + 6.42 (R+0)
• NY-26 (John McHugh - Northern, Oswego) - Obama 51.81, McCain 46.59 = D + 5.22 (R+1)
• CA-45 (Mary Bono Mack - Orange County, Palm Springs) - Obama 51.52, McCain 46.94 = D + 4.58 (R+3)
• CA-50 (Brian Bilbray - San Diego, Carlsbad) - Obama 51.26, McCain 47.08 = D + 4.18 (R+3)
• FL-10 (Bill Young - Palm Harbor, Seminole) - Obama 51.30, McCain 47.17 = D + 4.13 (R+1)
• CA-26 (David Dreier - Rancho Cucamonga) - Obama 51.03, McCain 46.96 = D + 4.07 (R+3)
• WI-01 (Paul Ryan - Racine, Kenosha) - Obama 51.40, McCain 47.45 = D + 3.95 (R+2)
• NJ-07 (Leonard Lance - South Plainfield) - Obama 51.16, McCain 47.69 = D + 3.47 (R+3)
• CA-24 (Elton Gallegly - Thousand Oaks) - Obama 50.49, McCain 47.65 = D + 2.84 (R+4)
• FL-18 (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen - Miami) - Obama 50.74, McCain 48.55 = D + 2.19 (R+3)
• MI-04 (Dave Camp - Traverse City) - Obama 50.09, McCain 48.19 = D + 1.90 (R+3)
• VA-04 (Randy Forbes - Chesapeake) - Obama 50.33, McCain 48.80 = D + 1.53 (R+4)
• NE-02 (Lee Terry - Omaha) - Obama 49.97, McCain 48.75 = D + 1.22 (R+6)
• WI-06 (Tom Petri - Fond du Lac) - Obama 49.91, McCain 48.72 = D + 1.19 (R+4)
• CA-25 (Howard McKeon - Santa Clarita) - Obama 49.45, McCain 48.34 = D + 1.11 (R+6)
• CA-44 (Ken Calvert - Orange County, Inland Empire) - Obama 49.51, McCain 48.57 = D + 0.94 (R+6)
• CA-48 (John Campbell - Orange County, Laguna Hills) - Obama 49.30, McCain 48.55 = D + 0.75 (R+6)
• CA-03 (Dan Lungren - Elk Grove, Folsom) - Obama 49.28, McCain 48.81 = D + 0.47 (R+6)

And that was 2008. Believe it or not, guys, but never every election will be like that! Also, it was a Presidential election year with Barack Obama leading the ticket. Guess who won't be leading the ticket in 2010. Guess how low turnout will be.

Don't tell me it's "tilt Democratic" when you don't even know who the Dems are running.

It is an increasingly Dem district.  Even in bad years like 2002 and 2004, Democrats came within a whisker of picking up the seat before it had trended more Democratic. 

Look who led the ticket in 2002 and 2004 was a Presidential election year (higher turnout).

So why couldn't they in good years like 2006 and 2008?

Gerlach worked the district very hard and was well liked. 

Plus the Dem candidates weren't that great either.

No, Gerlach really wasn't well liked.

And Democrats couldn't why? I mean, Chris Shays worked the district very hard and was well liked. Rob Simmons worked the district very hard and was well liked.

Murphy should have won in 06 and even outspent Gerlach.  In 08 Gerlach had a huge $$ advantage about 7-2, which was a much larger advantage than Shays had (virtually even) and Simmons as well (a little less than 3-2).

We do need to find out who the candidates are, but at this point it is a Dem leaning district.

Tell me a few things about the potential Dem candidates, Smash.

I'll admit I don't know that much about the potential candidates.  However, I was talking about the overall political makeup of the district which favors the Dems.  Until we know more about the potential candidates and who they are you can't make any concrete predictions on the race.  However, you can talk about the overall structure of the district, and which side that favors, which is what I was doing.

Political make-up =/= favoring one side or the other

The Democrats ran a third-tier candidate in 2008 and he nearly defeated Gerlach on Presidential coattails/anti-Republicanism alone.

No, Phil, elections in PA-6 won't go 58%-41% forever... but the difference between 2008 and future years isn't "Democrats win, or Democrats lose," it's that the margin of the D advantage will reduce along with the national margin. Maybe there will be a Republican suburban comeback in the northeast suburbs in federal races, but we haven't seen any green shoots for it yet.

This isn't about a comeback; we're still in charge here and there are dynamics that still favor my party in this seat.

Dinniman is apparently looking into a run but Pike received a huge endorsement today from Pat Murphy. That's big. The Hill is reporting that "Democratic insiders" in PA insist that Pike is the frontrunner and endorsements like this only back that up.

I bet Dinniman stays away from this. Pike already has over $600,000 on hand and is pledging to spend $1 million of his own money in the race.

Speaking of Dinniman, the woman he beat for his State Senate seat - Chester county Commissioner Carol Aichele - stated she won't run in the 6th and will continue her run for Lt. Governor. Curt Schroder basically has the GOP nomination wrapped up.

I just checked Pike's website. He has State Representative Josh Shapiro's endorsement, too. Shapiro is one of the really big deals in SE PA Democratic circles (especially in Montco). If he's already endorsing this guy, I think the Dems have their man.

I also think if the Dems gave a crap about this seat, they'd win.  In 2008, it was apparent they didn't and look how close it was.  You can't tell me with a Dem Pres margin almost that of PA 13, a Dem with some clout and backing wouldn't have won that seat.  Granted, I don't think that candidate was Lois, but others could have very well beat Gerlach.  Mind you, I realize the GOP is strong farther down the ticket, but the pattern for Dem shifts usually starts from the Presidential level, Congress, then the State House/Senate seats. 

Would it be accurate to say that Dinniman's senate district is significantly more Republican than the 6th as a whole?

I'm asking only so I can reconcile in my head what I read about Dinniman's win and his positioning, and whether a PA-6 candidate would have to match it; I'm not trying to make any statement about the overall D/R lean of PA-6.

Yes, that's why Dinniman is a threat. That being said, he did have the benefit of a weak Republican campaign against him in that Special (if I recall correctly).


Gave a crap about this seat? Are you kidding me? This was a top target in 2002, 2004 and 2006! Sure, they didn't target it in 2008 and it was still close but if they had, Gerlach would have also stepped up his game.

Could he have lost? Sure. Is it a definite? No.

I was talking about 2008.  The district flew in the Democrats direction compared to 2004 or even 2006.  A total lightweight in Roggio got 48%.  Sure, Gerlach would have stepped up his game, but I think 2008 could have been a year that cracked him had the Dems stepped up.

I live in PA-6 (and in Dinniman's Senate district). It's a traditionally very Republican area where the Dems have made inroads the past few years. Phil, if you're talking about the special against Aichele, the GOP did make a strong challenge with a good candidate in Aichele. She just ran into the Dinniman buzzsaw.
I did a lot of PA-6 work (interviewing voters) at my old job. My sense was that Gerlach had very low name recognition. The Dems need to do well in Chester County to win this seat. I'm a Dem, but I think Schroder would be a slight favorite against Pike. (Disclaimer: I know Schroder personally, though I haven't spoken to him in many years.) Much would depend on the national mood.

[quote author=Brian from Family Guy

I was talking about 2008.  The district flew in the Democrats direction compared to 2004 or even 2006.  A total lightweight in Roggio got 48%.  Sure, Gerlach would have stepped up his game, but I think 2008 could have been a year that cracked him had the Dems stepped up.
[/quote]
Yes! The key to PA-6, IMHO, is getting a Dem from the right part of the district. (Roggio wasn't a strong candidate. I don't know much about Pike, but a Pike-Schroder matchup could have results like Gerlach-Murphy.

Yes! The key to PA-6, IMHO, is getting a Dem from the right part of the district. (Roggio wasn't a strong candidate. I don't know much about Pike, but a Pike-Schroder matchup could have results like Gerlach-Murphy.
[/quote]

I'll concede the fact you know far more about PA 6 than I do.  I probably know more about PA 13 or even 1, 2, or 8 for that matter.  One thing I have noticed from people I've come across in suburban Philadelphia- younger people are FAR more liberal than their parents whereas in places like Northeast or South Philly, there is little difference.  In other words, of people around my age, those from the suburbs are fairly liberal whereas people from the NE are more conservative.  The 2000-2008 electoral trend is evident there.

I've heard differently about Aichele but that is not to take away from Dinniman's strength.