Talk Elections

Seriously. The state has the highest un-employment in the country and it is growing and I doubt that they still are so pro Obama now that it is still getting worse. If The economy stays the way it is or even gets slightly better Obama will lose. Tops if Romney becomes the nominee I am fully prepared to stick on a label saying

"Safe Republican"

No, Michigan will still lean Democrat by a couple of percentage points.

The 2008 result was an anomaly, but there's no way it'll be safe Republican in the near future. There's Detroit, Flint, Ann Arbor, Lansing, etc that provides a strong base of support for any Democrat. Plus, the suburbs of Detroit are a lot bluer now than they were 15-20 years ago.

That's not to say a Republican can't win obviously, but there's no evidence that suggests that Michigan will be a strong Republican state in 2012.

It'll be a close, but clear Obama victory.

If the economy is still as bad as it is now, Obama will lose Michigan, unless Republicans nominate someone really bad. If it get's a little better, it will be close. If Michigan actually get's better, and maybe go below double-digit unemployment, it will be safe for Obama.

I can see it happen if...
 
...Obama is murdered right before the election, nobody cares cause he has approval ratings in 11%, an amendment that allows foreginers to be president is passed during his term, Granholm runs as the Dem nominee now that Barack is dead against Romney or Pawlenty, the economy is even worse.

:P

Joke aside, Michigan is kind of like the Democrats' Texas. It might switch, but Obama would need to fail big time for it to happen and the Republicans would need a a strong candidate, and even then it would be close. 

We Dems like to think that Texas will be won by us, and the GOP that Michigan will come to them, but it's not likely to happen for a while. Although I wouldn't mind to see a Republican win Michigan in 2012 as long as we get Texas instead >:)


 

This is kinda like asking if the GOP nominee in 2012 stands a chance in Kentucky (a state that was closer in 2008 than Michigan was).

The economy tanking before the election is what caused it. Minus all the economic problems our country faced in the final 2 months before the election, Michigan would have been closer. A lot of MI voters were just voting for something different, and they could very well do that again in 2012.

This thread is stupid. He won the state by 17 points. Even if the election had been an even 50-50 election, Obama still wound have won MI comfortably.

Do pple forget that McCain was ahead in  the state as recently as Spring 08? :)

I think that Grandholm in michigan is like kathleen blanco in louisiana. Because of her, the dems may lose ground in the future in michigan. BTW lots of rednecks and reagan democrats live in macomb county and all accross the state. Maybe with a gop victory in the governor elections, Michigan may become republican's virginia or indiana ...

The thread is about 2012.

Do people forget that in Spring 08 the Democratic primary battle was still going strong and many Clinton voters were still claiming they'd jump ship if she wasn't the nominee?  Perhaps they also forgot Obama did virtually no campaigning there until after the primary was completely over since he wasn't on the Michigan primary ballot.

Seriously though, I don't see how the Michigan voters are going to turn against the Democrats when the Democrats are still so pro-union and they just bailed out the state's biggest industry.  Unless Obama makes driving a car illegal he's going to win Michigan.

A lot of Republicans were shocked when Granholm won by double-digits in 2006, although voters "blamed her for the bad economy." Fact is, a lot of unemployment means a lot of people receiving benefits provided by Democratic legislation. We will carry Michigan again by blaming those responsible for the economic collapse- the very conservative corporate bosses.

Yes. If a candidate wins a state by 17 points in one election, then he surely at least has "a chance" at winning that state again in the next election and will likely win it again. There's no reason why there would be a 30 point swing in the state.

Is Michigan a Republican's wet dream or something?

You were addressing it as if it was about 2008 by using the past tense.

Sure he has a chance but you then go on to say he'd win it comfortably.

How the hell can you say he's likely to win it again so soon? Sure there's a reason why there would be a swing - if the economy is still in the toilet or if it gets even worse. People around here need to stop thinking that politics is governed by trend rules.

Yep, along with Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire...l

Suffice it to say, they go through a lot of sheets.


Not saying it's likely he'll win it again (though I think the odds are better that he'll win it than he'll lose it in 2012), but to say that there's no chance he'll win a state he won by 17 points in the last election, or that a state that has voted D for 16 years now and was D+10 in 2008 is suddenly SAFE REPUBLICAN is just ridiculous.

2008 was an unusual year. Under other circumstances it would've been about the same as Minnesota and Pennsylvania in terms of voting.

...but...you did.


Totally agree

I hate the arrogance on both sides when it comes to the future political landscape.

Obama will most likely win Michigan, I don't think there is much doubt about this. I don't see people in the state that voted for Kerry, going over and voting for the party that said no to the GM bailouts. So far the GM bailouts aren't really popular in Michigan but they are much more popular than in the rest of the country. Most likely the company will begin to rebound in some way, along with the state's economy during the next four years. Most likely the GOP candidate will have said something about the bailout that would look poor in a Democratic attack ad.

I am not saying that the Democrats have a lock here but they have a good chance of holding the state.

Something in me thinks that Obama might "stand a chance" in Michigan.  I don't know what it is.  I guess I'm just a reckless prognosticator.

Of course he does.

Of course he will win, unless his approval is below 35%.

Romney makes it closer; Palin, Huckabee, Gingrich, and Barbour will be disasters in Michigan -- but such will be the least of their concerns.

Obama is going to win it. Michigan is brain dead. Obama can televise himself flipping off Michigan on a map everyday (CNN would help there and would likely spin it), screw with GM some more, and unemployment could reach 25% in the state itself, and he would still win it.

Michigan is only as Democratic as North Carolina was Republican in 2004 so it can be won if Romney wins by 7.

Majority of people are dumb in Michigan if they reelect Obama when their economy is in the tank and only gets worse.  Are they brain dead up there or is there something in the water?

Here's a dose of reality for you. Michigan's economy being in the tank long predated President Obama taking office - and in case you didn't know, at this point in time, the 'Great Recession' continues to rage

And if we are going to hurl the word "dumb" around, how about this for good measure? The only "dumbs" were those who rolled the die on the prosperity back in 2000 when they elected Bush, who proved to be somewhat inept when you compare the starting point of his presidency with the end point. There is a world of difference between one president being bequeathed a robust economy that had generated 23 million new jobs and a federal government living well within its means and another being bequeathed an economy losing jobs at a rate not seen since the recession of 1981/82 and mammoth deficits - and at the time when spending needs to be accelerated to counter the downturn

The only certainty is that Michigan's plight would be a hell of a lot worse had a Republican allowed GM to go down. This president is proving he has the guts to take tough, though not necessarily popular decisions, and that is leadership :)

They still failed, and now we have less economic independence. Lose-Lose.

People might as well live in a 3rd world country if they're going to vote for Obama again and see their state fail even more. 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/07/19/obama-continues-to-poll-r_n_239968.html

SAFE REPUBLICAN

Michigan would be doing worse in a Republican presidency...

Maybe Magnetic Free just harkers back to the 'Roaring Twenties' and the minimal statist ideal that was Calvin Coolidge (complete with the huge differentials of wealth of that era), who snored (and farted) all the while sowing the seeds of the 'Great Depression'

Two words: Bradley Effect.

What if they see some improvement (auto sales rebound) while Obama  is President? Michigan is about dead-center... within the Blue Firewall, that is. It is farther from going Republican than Texas is from going Democratic. As it is, more cars are being scrapped than being made in a time in which people need cars no less than they used to. They may be driving less, but the lesser driving is a reduction in recreational driving. Such bodes well for a revived auto industry.

Michigan is essentially Minnesota or Wisconsin politically, except with more blacks. Michigan seemed a possible pickup for John McCain -- until the Hard Right left some doubt over who would be the real boss in a McCain Presidency.

I fully understand what the Right suggests for Michigan: tax "reform" that would shift taxes from the state income tax to a huge sales tax, sale of the expressway system to profiteering monopolies, and a Right-to-Work (for much less) law. In short, Michigan would become Texas with nasty winters. Workers would end up with higher taxes and lower wages, and no certainty of more work.

Guess what? That is no solution to a state with a very cyclical economy. Texas has the same boom-and-bust cycle with petroleum.

Even in good times, Detroit is a big problem because of its machine-boss government and related corruption. Such corruption would not be removed with tax "reform", sell-off of public assets, or a Right-to-Starve law.  The political crooks would still have their fingers in others' pockets. Rural Michigan, which has many of the auto suppliers and tool-and-die shops, reels too. Methamphetamine activity flourishes.

Silly thread. The unemployed always vote Democrat, and Michigan has an abundance of them right now. The Republicans stand no chance in Michigan.

Agreed.  Seems like they're stuck in the past electing the same officials, digging a deeper trench.

It's possible for a Republican to pick up Michigan, but Obama would really have to screw up big time in order for the counties outside Wayne County, such as Oakland and Kent, to go Republican in 2012.


McCollum for Governor 2010

Welcome, my friend.  :)

Just a word of advice - put the "McCollum for Governor" line in your signature, not at the end of every post. By the way, I'm a McCollum fan myself.  :)

Nah mostly because they recognize that the Democrats will give them more unemployment benefits, food stamps etc.

Giving them more unemployment benefits because they're not trying hard enough to find a career that pays them well with medical/vision/dental insurance?  Seems like they're just being sheep for the masses of dependance.

Give me a break, I'm desperately looking for a new job while I'm employed.  I'm going to graduate college soon and I'm excited about it and you tell me theywant more wealth from the government?

Well, if not for the Republican economic policies, they wouldn't be in the trench in the first place.

Actually, the enlightened welfare capitalist nations of northern and western Europe, along with post-industrial Anglophone nations, are not 3rd world countries

Michigan actually tried the tack you think they're too stupid to do; they voted R for state government from 1990-2002, a rather long time. Remember John Engler? How much did he do to stop the decline of the U.S. auto industry?

Not to mention that we had a Republican controlled State house until the 2006 elections and still have a GOP held State Senate.

I don't think MI will switch sides anytime soon but the state to watch is Ohio and I think if the current trend continues as far as the unemployment rate goes he and Strickland may very well lose.

states to watch OH, NM, VA CO in the next election cycle, if one defects Dems will not win.

Aye, it's not like at the state level Michigan is one-party

I would like to know if Kathleen Sebilius is popular in Ohio. Why? http://www.ohiohistorycentral.org/entry.php?rec=1774

There seems to be this assumption that Mitt Romney is popular in Michigan because his dad was governor, forgetting that he has written stuff like this: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/19/opinion/19romney.html

Obama's win in Michigan was so wide not just because of the economic recession, but because McCain effectively pulled all of his resources out of the state in early October. When you tell the people of a state that you're not fighting for their votes anymore, you're going to lose big. This is reflected in the fact that my very conservative congressional district went Democrat for the first time in years.

I feel like it would take something fairly big for MI to swing Republican next time around.

Well, Romney did manage to win the primary in Michigan, although no doubt that was helped as much or more by the fact that Michigan Republican politics are dominated by corporatists as by the Romney name.

Does that statement have a tinge of racism? Obama didn't need African ancestry to be the sort of leader that we have. For real decay of America, Americans might have the chance to get Dubya's ideology on steroids in 2012, if without the overt kleptocracy.

If you want a more relevant comparison, Dubya = Ferdinanad Marcos.

Racism? There you go with race again, I like how you have to bring up race into a topic.

I basically said that Michigan's economy is in the dumps, and I think Obama's programs probably wouldn't help them out alot.

This may be one of the worst threads ever.

Yeah, this is a total turdfest.

I am pleased with your response.  On two levels.

First, I agree.

Second, the word "turd" is not incorporated into general conversation nearly enough to keep me entertained. 

()

Happy? :P

It'll be close.  Anybody who voted for options 2 or 3 is an idiot.

Michigan is not a swing state, but it is not part of the National Democratic Base. Meaning that a Republican should only campaign in Michigan if he wants to finish off the Democratic Party until he royally screws up.

Ditto

ehh....I guess you could get out of this short bus is the fact that Georgia and Michigan have about the same chance of flipping in 2012...which I guess has about a 10% chance of happening....combined.

Inks, dude, it was not even remotely close in 2008. Why would thinking probably it won't be close in 2012 either make someone an idiot? Obviously, the poll options are just worded like that for dramatic effect, we all know what they really mean.

This thread has some of the most far-out analysis that I've ever seen...

Yes.  Very.

It's a funny name.

turd turd turd turd turd

The alternatives that you didn't offer included:

"Michigan is so strongly Democratic that Obama would have to foul up badly to lose it in 2012"

"The GOP has a bigger chance of dying or becoming irrelevant than of carrying Michigan before 2020"

"The GOP will have to clean up its act before it stands a chance in Michigan".

"Michigan will lean strongly Democratic for a long time"

This poll offered what logicians call a false dichotomy -- and leaving more poor options makes the fallacy no less blatant.

I guess it's true that the poll answers are pretty crappy (now that I looked at them again), but there certainly are people on this forum who truly believe that MI will vote Dem now and forever.

No, I said that for exageration.

I wasn't referencing you - I was just referencing people on the forum in general.